20 Burst results for "FMC"
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"I'm so excited to bring you today, show you. I'm going to blow your mind. I'm going to blow your mind today with how to trade the FOMC meeting. Hopefully we'll get two thousand likes at that point. We will bring you give away the Rolex watch no one claimed it yesterday, so it means we're giving it away today. Remember, there's not three watches to be given away. Have to be given away by the end of fib, which means that there's 28 days from tomorrow to give away those watches. It's FMC week. It's a big week. We need to know how to trade this week. FMC weeks all have a pattern. Here is the pattern. Let me show it to you. It's pretty simple. So you have on Monday. We have a sell off. We got the sell off. On Tuesday, we have a slight retrace. Guess what we're having right now? Slight retrace back over 23,114. On Wednesday, there's a balance on Thursday there's going to be a fullback and on Friday we continue higher. That's what happened every single effort in C meeting. I'm going to show you that it's going to happen again. This if I'm seeing meeting and I'm going to show you what you should be buying because if we get a pullback now and you are of the same belief that we are that it's time to go risk on again, then dips off for buying. But they're not for buying blindly. You have to have a strategy. And I need to show you what the strategy is because I've got the strategy. I want to show it to you. There's a document. I'm going to show it to you show it to you. You see, but over 8 million tabs open again. I think it's this document over here. Yes, here we go. So there is a document open where the whole strategy we're going to talk about the strategy and I'm going to show you how well that strategy is going to work.
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"I'm so excited to bring you the show today because there is a way to trade the FOMC week, which is the week that we end this week. It's the week where the FMC meeting happens. And we're going to get the outcome of it tomorrow. There's a way to trade that week. And I want to show you that I've tested that and that if I'm right, we're going to have a pullback on Thursday and that's when you should be buying. I'm going to show you also what you should be buying. So today is going to be like a great show. I'm going to show you why we're going to get a pullback. I'm going to show you all the data behind it. And then I'm going to show you what you should be buying on Thursday when this pullback happens. And why? You should be buying what I tell you you're going to be buying. So it's going to be fun. It's going to be a big show. Get the fuck out of bed, bitch. Go. Get out your heart. They got to go. I wake up. How to wake up, bitch get up. Get up. Get up. Get up.
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Welcome back, guys. Nice to see you with another edition of DCA. I've got CTR last and I've got James from invest answers. We do have a jam packed show for you guys today because as you can see, we were planning on talking about whether Bitcoin can get to 50,000 by 90 days, which we had a good case for. But now we started to see a slight pullback. And I think a lot of people are getting the pre the pre earphones jitters, which are normal every single time. So I think what we should talk about on the show, we should talk about the preformed digits, is what we can expect from the FMC. Then we should probably look at what realistic price targets are for Bitcoin. Then there are a whole lot of other narratives that I want to talk about for a while.
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"Next week, we're going to get the PCE numbers, the personal consumption expenditure numbers, which is the measure of inflation that the fed look at, that is coming out tomorrow. Last time we looked at the PCE numbers, there were 5.5%, I did see this that says that we're looking core PC likely to be slowed to 4.4%. So let's see if it does come at 4.4%. If this inflation number keeps coming down, great news, fed will probably stop tightening or as you can see now. There's a 19 9.1% chance of a 50 basis point rate tag when the fed meet on the first fib. There is some bad news on the horizon, which is that the Cleveland fit does see CPR rising .6 in the month of January. So we've got to keep our eyes. We're not out of the Woods there. We're really, really, really not out of the Woods. They got to keep us network. We'll keep you updated tomorrow. When the numbers when the numbers come out, the PC numbers come out, and then, of course, when the FMC meeting happens, we'll be live as well with you guys. All right, let's talk about this rally because a lot of people don't believe the power of liberal. They just don't believe it. I want to show you a few things. In fact, first of all, I want to say that it's not really the Bitcoin rally that we should be worried about. We've seen the Bitcoin rally. We're seeing what is done in January and let's quickly look at what Bitcoin has done in January. You can see that we have from the 7th of December until now. Bitcoin is up 50%. So 50% of Bitcoin. But that's not what you degens. That's not what you guys are here for. Someone saying anyone so Tesla, we're going to talk about Tesla data. You guys aren't here for Bitcoin. You guys are here for all the other coins, right? You guys are here for the altcoins. Got some good news for you when it comes to altcoins. I want to show you something. So
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Shifting in terms of policy tightening magnitude and that means we're not going to probably see 75 basis points even daily's comments overnight suggested we may even see a 25 basis point hike at the next FMC. So I think something is certain shifting in terms of the fed thinking in terms of the magnitude of it. But it is a core subset officials highlighting the potential for higher for longer and that means that market expectations, the fed rate cuts might start as early as the second half of this year could be disappointed in the wake of these continued orcish fed comments. But look, at some point, the fed may need to capitulate inflation is starting to ease. We will see signs of solar growth, for example, that weak ISM services that we saw last week. That could certainly shift that thinking to a more double speed. Yeah, it's obviously what most of us in the market think, but then you get the fed almost in denial mode. And if we had more time, I'd push you to come up with some of the dovish policymakers because most of them are pretty much on the hawkish side. But I want to switch direction to Japan. We talked a little bit about how abrupt the China reopening was. And we've had some in the markets calling for or at least saying that the BOJ is getting ready to end its yield curve control policy sometime maybe in the first half of this year. What are your thoughts on that? And what would the impact be? Yeah, I think definitely if you look at the Japanese data, we need to talk about the inflation we had to click here CPI today. The core number came in above expectations. It's spreading if you look at the CPI basket in Japan. It's certainly spreading in terms of the increase in inflation. So it's becoming very hard for the package plan to ignore this. And while we don't think we will see a shift in policy in terms of the policy rate or the yield curve target, it does look like the yield curve control is on its way out. And we would argue this potential in the next few months to see another widening of the ban, potentially even moving to dismantling it all together because there is continued pressure on the bond market. We've had that intervention unlimited interventions in the bank of Japan in bonds. It's going to be hard to sustain this current policy. And middle briefly where would the end go in that case? Yes, I think the end will continue to strengthen our view. I think if we do see more band widening or dismantling that just means more and more yen upside, especially against the backdrop of a weaker dollar. Yeah, all right, middle. Thank you very much for joining us. Middle content ahead
Stansberry Investor Hour
"fmc" Discussed on Stansberry Investor Hour
"Yeah, I agree the CPI is, you know, it's not anything like perfect. And it's not what the fed uses for inflation. They use PCE core PC too, which takes out energy and food prices. Yeah, because you don't need to go anywhere or eat, so that makes sense, right? Right, of course. But then Powell has said, oh, but given an oil prices like we have to consider that. So you never really know what exactly they're using. I think they're more using directional things than anything. Well, they have told us that they're using forward spreads on for interest rates. They're looking at forward spreads. On short term rates, not twos and tens and all this other all these other spreads that are more popular in the media. And you know, like you said, PCE, things other than CPI. And also, he keeps talking about labor. The labor market tightness, and I think part of their thinking with raising interest rates is like destroying all these job openings. The wrecked that and then they'll see less tightness in the labor market. More of a balance of supply and demand of labor, and they'll call that good at some point. The question is, at what point and I still think, I think we're in agreement that higher for longer is still the more reasonable expectation for inflation. No, are we in agreement? Yes, I'm in a I agree with that, yes. Yeah. So I think that the regime at the fetish changed, like for years and years and years, it was looser and loser and looser. You know, they were worried about much more worried about The Great Depression, not at all worried about inflation. I think that has well and truly flipped and that now pal and the FMC are much more concerned about inflation.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Right? Hey Melissa, what a truckers get paid. Oh, it depends. So right now, if you look at spot rates, it's around a dollar 86 per mile. And that is, you know, that's all in, or $2 a mile. That's all in. They have to pay for their truck, their fuel, most trucks are running around 5 to 8 maybe 9 if they're brand new. Miles per gallon. And so they're not the most efficient vehicles out there. So. Their margins are anywhere from 8 to 12, maybe 15% on the high end in a good market. And that's without the higher inflation and costs of their equipment and their financing to get that equipment that has gone up recently. What are the rules in place to prevent drivers from driving long hours so they don't get too tired. If this incentive system is in place that actually pays people per mile. Yeah. Yeah, absolutely. So FMC SA has hours of service regulations that are in place, all drivers, certainly those that cross border and run outside of a hundred mile radius adhere to standards. And they have electronic blogs that keep track of every minute of their day. So they have to log when they're resting, they have to log when they're sleeping, they have to log when they're on duty, off duty, not driving. Every part of their day is tracked. And the formulas will tell them how much they can drive today. And so when you think about the driver shortage, a big part of that came from, you know, implementing the electronic log those, which held drivers accountable to not being able to go over their hours. That was Melissa forman. She's the president at triumph pay. Still ahead on Bloomberg businessweek, we go from the shipping economy to the local economy for an in depth conversation with the mayor of Tulsa, Oklahoma, GT bynum. The big concern is inflation and the challenges that presents with keeping up with cost costs as a city government where we have to have a balanced budget every year and providing the level of service that people expect when the costs of doing everything, whether that's fixing a street or hiring a police officer, is dramatically more expensive than it was just two years ago. This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Central banks have stopping forward guidance with stopping, guiding markets explicitly beyond the next scheduled meeting. And I think in a an environment where we're all guessing, look, we can have sophisticated models. We can have well curated communications, but all of us in markets, economists, central bankers. I guessing how persistent this bout of inflation, the types that we haven't seen for 40 years, how persistent they will be. So yes, when you talk about wriggle room, I do think FMC members put a high value on having the ability to say, look, the data has changed. So our expected pathway is change and you need to price that into your expectations for what the risk free rate looks like during 2023. Does the fed set us up for the Central Bank decisions that we're going to be getting today? I mean, we've already heard from the Swiss national bank with a 50 basis point move of its own. And there's an expectation in the market for 50 from the ECB and the BOE this morning. Safety and numbers, Nathan. Safety in numbers. And that is if you don't know what your transmission mechanism is from monetary policy through to the real economy, if you're worried about being picked on because you're an outlier, you're seen as behind the curve. Then actually moving as a herd as the central banks appear to be doing is probably the least risky option here. So yes, the fact that we see four of the major central banks potentially by the end of today all moving 50 basis points. That is an indication of where they are psychologically and they're where they are in terms of their interpretation of the data, trying to minimize their errors rather than certain of the correct stance. Only about 30 seconds left here, Simon, but the European banks have a lot of different inflation dynamics compared to the U.S., don't they particularly given the war in Ukraine. Yeah, it's all about supply driven energy led inflation in Europe. There's no real signs of demand surge like you've got in the U.S., very different backdrop for the UCB. And that suggests their terminal rates or monetary policy will be considerably lower than the federal reserves because it's just different inflation they're dealing with much less responsive to raising bank rates. Man, we get those decisions from the Bank of England in just a little bit less than two hours times 7 a.m. Wall Street time and then the European Central Bank and hour and 15 minutes after that at 8 15. Lots to dig into lots of Central Bank moves. Great to get your thoughts this morning Simon again, thanks for being with us. That was Simon French. Chief economist at panmure Gordon. S&P futures following the fed's decision down 45 points a drop of 1.1% down futures down 299 in NASDAQ futures leading the declines down nearly 1.4% a drop of a 161 points. The ten year treasury is down one 32nd, yield 3.48%. This is
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"You've survived that on the back of a global economic collapse. You've also survived that against the background of a whole lot of other things that have happened, which are completely the biggest events that have happened in crypto. So if you're still here, you don't think of giving up now. This is when it comes. This is when you should be more focused. This is when we'll bring you more Twitter spaces. This is when we will bring you a stream now. I'm doing DCA later tomorrow. We've got big news for you guys. In fact, let's look at the week ahead. And it's going to be a week that is full of volatility. I said this to you guys last week. This should be no surprise. But now we're seeing it coming out in the chart. So what is happening this week? It's a huge week. Tomorrow, inflation data, CPI. We're looking for a CPI number under 7.3% expectation is 7.3%. So let's just see where that ties up relative to the rest of the CPIs. The last CPI print that we got was 7.7, the forecast was 8, which is why everybody celebrated. But tomorrow, the forecast is 7.3. So the expecting it to come down quite a bit. So here's how it plays out tomorrow. Here's how it's going to play out tomorrow. Let me just find that for you. Okay. 7.3. If we get below 7.3 or we get 7.3, markets rally. If we get 7.4 ish, I think we'll be okay. If we get above 7.5, I think we're in trouble. Then the next day, we have the fed FOMC meeting. Let's look at what the FMC meeting is. Right now, 75% chance of a 50 basis point rate. Again, I'm putting my Nick out there. Most people wouldn't put their Nick out there. I'm saying we're getting an inflation reading of 7.47 .5% tomorrow, and we're getting 50 basis point inflation rate. What we do know is that every single time that we have had, we have gone into a CPI print, the market has had volatility. And on average, the move is 3% up or down. The market has been practically without a heartbeat for who knows how long about a week. Bitcoin has been without a heartbeat for much longer than in fact, let's quickly go to the Bitcoin chart. I'm losing my
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The fed dashing hopes for a pivot and signaling a higher peak interest rate. In contrast to that, the Bank of England would strongly push back against market expectations for the scale of future increases. U.S. equity futures in the meantime are flat this morning. That's out of the crucial jobs data later on. Let's bring in Ben Emma to the managing director and head of global macro strategy at mentally global advisers. I mean, Ben after the bombshell we had from the fed in terms of the guidance in terms of the commentary. Today's jobs data may be a bit of a snooze fest by comparison. Maybe you should, but I would not hold my breath though because you know the data is strong in the U.S. in terms of jobs and even the ISM services, for example, today showed more pricing pressures building through the economy. So I think it's really with power was pointing to. Since the last FMC meeting in September, the inflation actually only got worse. And the employment did only show more and more strength. So that's no wonder that as the final gas set in the secondary we started, the market is guessing about that terminal rate, as is the fed so as we're going into this payroll number, if you come in as expected sort of one 95 K to hundred, there will still be a tangible reaction in treasury yields going even higher from where we are today simply because it shows strength as the labor market, not abating. And I think that's key for the markets to understand how far that tightening will continue. So therefore, yeah, it is actually not a smooth space. I mean, the scale of Titan is being adjusted. So the terminal rate potentially comfortably passed the 5% in the early part of 2023. How worried do we need to be about a financial accident becoming a certainty rather than a possibility? I would definitely agree with you today that we've moved from if you look at this year, for example, every start around 2% or a thousand treasuries then we move to 3% 4% and now we're moving towards 5% and that's not just treasury yields but then mortgages and municipal bonds and corporate bonds and high yields and everything at the economy is based upon terms of credit and borrowing really going to see double digit rates. And if you get to that stage, you'll say that ten, 15% rates in corporate bonds and high yield and municipal bonds, we really do get a major, major slowdown if not significant recession. So that is your accident in the waiting. But the fetish determined to get this inflation down, it knows you can not really get down by bulging or pivoting away from it. It's kind of stay the course. And unless there's a congressional change of the mandates, they don't go back to employment. So I think there's just that direction. We're going to see higher rates and that does bring along an accident possibility. The market's life too, it's been doing its own analysis on U.S. equities and a kind of asks the broader question as we float above the key low mark for 2022. We're just about 6% at the moment higher. Are we going to see fresh lows for the S&P 500 this year and the next few weeks? I think it's very possible because as you went through this disaster meeting now this Wednesday, the so called pivot trade that people continue to jump on and then drive the S&P higher. Yeah, you can tell now. It clearly does not trade to be in. Therefore, she will pull it back. And it will do it again in the December meeting, right? So if you're going to try to do that again, if any of these data points in between come a little soft and somebody says from one of the first speakers like, wow, we may discuss it step down a base. I just think that's not the strategy. Therefore, the pressure will be on the S&P, which is a really significant component of financial conditions, driven by higher interest rates as in yes treasury yields are likely to just to 5% a bit above that following the fed funds rate is now price in over 5%. So I think you're going to break the lows if you have recently seen more like in this 3400 range. The market's lifetime is also saying that the UK is gearing up for its next panic attack in many ways what we heard from the Bank of England in the last 24 hours was jaw dropping. It was even though they have a track record of being very honest and that honesty has been has been with a lot of pain. This time they managed to add a few elements to that. What is your read on UK assets at the mall? Yeah, Bailey himself admitted that UK asked us half a risk premium attached. And that's really because you have an economy right now in a recession. Double digit inflation and the Bank of England has no choice but to bring the economy completely to his niece to get that inflation rate really down and that's what that fork has shows. In fact, they think that they can crash inflation to 0% in the next few years, but that does come with a 6 and a half percent on polymerase day forecast. So it really is a risk situation because 6 and a half unemployment will drive up credit cards will drive up interest rates even further and really put the pressure on the pounds. So it's actually very difficult situation at the moment, but Bailey knows she has no choice but to follow at least the interest rate trajectory that they have in mind, the market will continue to pressure with a risk treatment to it. So there's more panic to come, perhaps. I'll tell you what's also very difficult is understanding the binary nature of full on equity rally and then a complete break in China and the China rally. I mean, it's astounding. We're up 10% so far this week and China starts. It's the best week since 2015. No official confirmation that there's going to be anything remotely close to a reopening. Do you just get in here and kind of hope for the best or what do you tell clients? Yeah, you don't do that. So hopefully the best because this is not our idea of this pivoting, yes, the change of fish is rule eventually decide to not abandon at least moderate to zero COVID and make it even more flexible. They know that they can't keep the economy closed forever either and it's anywhere in the case to simply because it just takes sound economy long term so far that there will be problems in China too just like we've had here and elsewhere. So but at the moment, the Chinese government is destined to do the same thing as we're trying to do it inflation. You want to bring the virus really down the similarity to what we're trying to do with inflation and higher interest rates. And I just think you can not bank on it. So any kind of major rally in Chinese stocks, you should actually fade at this moment. Ben, appreciate the insights. So thank you for staying up for us at set by M, it's easy managing director and head of global macro strategy at medley global advisers. So much more to come on the show. This
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"The statement. And at that point, everything was good and you can see the NASDAQ went all the way up. And this is the statement that the fed published. And what it said, the part that got everybody so excited was this part of you. The committee will continue reducing its it wasn't that. It was the committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which management policy affects economic activity and inflation and economic and financial developments. And when everybody read this, what they thought is what the fed is saying is, look, we've tightened. But and we know we've tightened and we know that there's a lab between when we tighten it when you actually feel the economics effectively. It affects our typing. And so we're going to take that in mind when considering future rate increases. And so when they read this, when we all read this, the market went crazy. And you can see the NASDAQ shut up, I mean, these are 50 million charts. So take them with a pinch of salt. But the NASDAQ did go up about 2.31%. And then, if you look at the next rate candle, the natural candle was up here, and it went all the way down to here. So what happened? So let's look at the key points of what happened. Well, the first thing is, power came out into the press conference, and he was, he was actually unusually hawkish. So we were expecting some kind of pivot. Remember I said to you before the FOMC meeting, I said, our best case scenario at the FMC meeting is that the fed talks about slowing the fit talks about pausing the fed talks about in the best case of pivot, but we currently need a pivot wasn't going to come. But if we wanted them to use language, we'd say, look, we'll slow the right tax will go down to 50 basis points and stuff like that. That's not what happened. As pile got into the press conference, and I'm going to start you at the first part that I think is relevant. It will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases. As we approach the level of interest rates that will be sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal. If it can uncertainty around that level of interest rates, even so, we still have some ways to go. And incoming data since our last meeting suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected. Our decisions will depend on the totality of incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by beating and communicate our thinking as clearly as possible. So guns lies and it comes out and you basically says, look, remember we told you that we think the terminal rate is going to be four point something percent. Well, it's actually going to be higher than that. And that was, of course, pretty bearish. Carries on when he carries out, I'm not going to play the whole thing, but I'm actually going to take you to timestamp 1108. This is what we do. We listen to all these things. So you don't have to listen to a conversation. To be clear, let me say again, the question of when to moderate the pace of increases is now much less important than the question of how high to raise rates and how long to keep monetary policy restricted, which really will be our principal focus. If I could follow up on that, to what degree was there an importance or weight given to a need to signal this possibility now given all the concerns really around the globe about policy.
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"It's like the calm before the storm. You see Bitcoin is a 20,400. We've had that little altcoin Dante that we have before every single IOC meeting. And in fact, if I think about it, every single time that there's an FMC meeting, the market does exactly the same thing. We get this calm before the storm. Then we get altcoins damping and then we get another pattern that's playing out and so we're going to talk about the other pattern that plays out because of the four or 5 FMC's when the market does exactly the same thing. We should probably trade it and make a call to many. And after the week that we've had, we've had a huge week. We call Dodge this week. We call it render this week. We called monkey ball this week. I've got another call for you. So it's going to be a big one. And then I'm going to get onto a plane and go to Lisbon and bring you a whole other pictures. So let's do this. Get the fuck out of bed, bitch. Go. Get out your heart. I wake up. Gotta wake up, bitch get up. Get up. Get up. You gotta tell me now. Get up. Wake up, wake up, motherfuckers,
Crypto Banter
"fmc" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"NASDAQ looking strong ahead. We can quickly look at the Bitcoin charts together. Let me quickly just call up a Bitcoin chart. It kind of looks like Bitcoin's waiting for tomorrow. Like that's sort of what it looks like. It's just holding and not doing much. It feels like it feels like the NASDAQ is strong going into FOMC, Bitcoin looks like it had the breakout and not almost doing like this perfect retest, which is pretty cool. The one shot that really caught my attention before the FOMC meeting is this one. Not many people are watching this chart, yeah, I want to show it to you. It's the U.S. ten year treasury yield. So not many people are watching this because it's kind of like taking a backseat. But if you look at this chart, what do you see? So firstly trend, definitely slowing down, bro, this thing's been going up the whole year and what it's been going up markets have been pretty terrible. It is losing friend and I see a retest, definitely. And I saw today a little bit of acceleration to that. So do you agree with me? Do you agree with me? One, it broke the trend down. But the next level, the next real level is somewhere around there, 3.5% on the ten year treasury yield. That is, it is. I actually have a chart if you want me to show you. Yeah, pull up your chart. Let's quickly go through your charts, because these are important charts ahead of the FMC meeting. This is very important. And it's sort of giving us a little bit of a hint. So yes, we have the trendline, which is obviously breaking and we had the retest. But one thing that I did see, I've been using the 12 hour quite a bit because giving a good amount of data is the first be moving average. For the first time in quite a while, we're actually looking at possibly closing below, if not dropping it today. Now, this is just another indication. We've broken trendline and we did have RSIs way overbought. But if we drop this, the last time we dropped this, we ended up having a 17% decrease in the ten year yield. Now, in that time, Bitcoin went up 30%. In that time. This was the part between June and August in that time. Now we're at the point where we can drop again. And if it drops basically what it means is, we'll go down to the next sort of support. Now I mark down the two supports. The one is 12%. The other one is sitting around 20%. So ultimately, it's sort of giving us an indication that whatever move we sort of got in this time is something that we can possibly be getting now. Now, it's interesting, bro, is the FOMC going to go in our way, because if it goes in our way tomorrow, it's showing a very fast decrease within the ten year, which happens obviously in for the last few months. How do you feel about it? Do you think it's going to be are they going to play with us, dude?
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"So the FMC is committed to using its tools to bring inflation back down to our long run golf 2%. Last week, we took another decisive action to remove monetary policy accommodation. We raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points. And we're continuing the process of reducing assets off of our balance sheet, which also reduces accommodation. Someone I listen to carefully, Loretta master we're not questioning the mathematician of all of the fed talent the Cleveland fed president is just exquisite. I really, really listen to the dynamic she displays in her English prose. Lisa bramlett, and Tom keen, what we're going to do here is a little different. We're not doing like the weather doom and gloom are the Lisa. I mean, Lisa, come on. You in the big like the boots and the yellow rain things standing in the surf of Florida. I think I could sing it. You're trying to send the dance to hurricanes in Florida. There's a little different now. We do this with Brian K Sullivan, who owns a high ground on whether in business for Bloomberg, he has been dedicated for years and following this. It gets my attention of Ian Brian is 45 miles an hour in suddenly one 25 category three. Can this game ever more momentum to Florida? Yeah, exactly. Intensive care. Intensely ratifying and it's going across the very flat part of Cuba right now and it's going to head into the Gulf of Mexico, get some warm water, build up even stronger and I think in the next couple of hours we can see it crack category four. One of the things that Lisa mentioned is in the break here is every single guest on Bloomberg surveillance is bought something down in Florida. I mean, they're all on the coast. There are all these beautiful condos. These have been any change over the years to the coastline real estate that is affected by these historic storms. They haven't moved back from the shoreline. Have they? No, they have it. And in this case, that part of Florida doesn't always get hit, so there's been a lot of, you know, kind of whistling in the dark and the idea that, oh, it never happened to us before. So it's not going to happen now. I mean, you have to go back. Probably the 1921 because a storm of this strength and this power coming into that. Wait, wait, wait, you're serious. We have to go back to Humphrey Bogart and I think it was Lauren Bacall and that hurricane movie. Yeah. Yeah, Key West, right? He west. Are you kidding? Wow. Yeah, that's one big concern that people have as they watch the development of hurricane Ian, especially hitting some of these areas that have been built up in Brian. How much would the damage potentially be if they got a hurricane, akin to what we saw in 1921, which some people think is the last analog? Exactly right. You're talking 60 to $70 billion worth of damage throughout Tampa Bay. Wow. So at this point, how do people prepare for this and longer term? What does it mean in terms of development in terms with a recognition of whether this is going to become a more frequent event? Is it? Well, I think at this point all you can do is get out of the way. I mean, it's too late, but in terms of the long term, this is a conversation the entire United States has to have about what we build right along the waterfront and how much money we're seeing this in Boston. We're seeing this in Miami. We're seeing this work Virginia. Brian Tampa is just one example of major shout out to Jeffrey vinick ex fidelity who did so much for Tampa along with others a boom economy. There's going to be a compare and contrast with the heartbreak of San Juan. I mean, there's no question about it. What does Tampa have to do to not have some of the sadnesses that were observed in San Juan in recent weeks? I think in some part, the infrastructure on the mainland is a little more robust than the infrastructure in Puerto Rico. So, you know, at that point, you're dealing with the resources of the entire country and, you know, they should be going to Puerto Rico as well, but I think it's mainly a question of infrastructure and how quick you can bounce back. So, you know, the grid on the mainland is a little more robust. The transportation system on the mainland is a little more robust and it's just easier to get materials into salt Florida than it is to put them on a boat and send them to Florida. Ryan, can you give us a sense of the trajectory for the rest of this season? This hurricane season. Are there other forms of brewing? Do you get the sense that this is going to be an exceptionally active one or just par for the course? Well, the forecast was for it to be above average, and it was very quiet through August, but now it's kind of picking up speed as we're heading to September here. The other interesting thing is the western Pacific Vietnam is going to get today by our very strong storm. Japan has been hit by a few very strong storms. So you're seeing that kind of Tupac starting to come into focus here. Brian, thank you so much, Brian. Sullivan with us on a storm that we've underplayed in the northeast, but which is very serious. I don't make jokes about it, Lisa. There's some real hardship here, but for Brian to say we wander back to 1948 in key Largo with Bogart, then this is not funny. That movie caught the violence that's real. Well, and it comes at a time when a lot of people have moved to Florida. Florida has seen a huge amount of inward migration. It's now called Wall Street south. And you have these financial centers and there were stories about it today about how they're all shutting down in preparation for the hurricane. How does weather deal with some of the immigration that they have seen in the build up that you've rightly pointed out, Tom, especially on the shorelines, that's going to have to be an increasing question and pressure, although to date, we haven't really had to deal with it at least post pandemic. David kotak, who is always a good friend of the program, is living this in Florida. He emails in. It is too late for Tampa to do anything for Ian, except evacuation. They have, in the words of mister kotak, writing cryptically, they've just simply avoided a lot of the efforts that were required after what we saw with the hurricane of the century here. I think it was in 19 95. Lisa, let's go over the data. It's a better tone today as we go to conviction Wednesday at tomorrow. I'm looking at the real yield 1.50% a little better than the fear of yesterday. Well, the fear, can we just talk about that fear? Just because I like to do that, but also because we're looking at a real yield on the ten year treasury that went up past 1.6%. This was a pain point. I was speaking with a number of strategists that were talking about how that would be kind of the breaking point for markets. Well, we got there. And Marcus didn't break. So what does that mean? Where is the threshold at a time where people have gotten used to zero real yields for so many years? On the Bloomberg terminal folks, you can do the math. You can see the data and the data of O four O 5 O 6 is some form of moving average of about 2.05%. Lisa, I don't hear people really modeling out 2.05%
Airline Pilot Guy - Aviation Podcast
"fmc" Discussed on Airline Pilot Guy - Aviation Podcast
"You know, to make sure everything's safe before we surveyed the scene. ADS-B data confirmed the information, the aviation Herald received showing the aircraft maintained political three 7 zero until after over flying the runway before the aircraft began to descend and maneuver for another approach. On August 20th, 2022, which was just 5 days ago, as we're recording the show today on the 25th, the airline confirmed the incident and advising that both pilots have been suspended, pending further investigation. Appropriate action will be taken based on the outcome of the investigation. Now I hand over the baton to captain Ricky, who's going to give us a little bit of some perspective regarding this inside, because the reason why I chose Miami Rick is because he sleeps all the time. I do this kind of thing all the time. I overfly my destination at three 7 zero. We just don't like to talk about it. What time of day was this flight? Do we know? That's a good question. That's a good question. I don't know. Where were they in their circadian clock? They were in there. No, I mean, I wouldn't expect this would be in the middle of the night. Type of flight. I don't know. While you guys talk about it, I'll look up the flight aware thing and then I'll have the Z time and should be able to tell us what time it was. Looks like. Four 20 three 27 four 27 a.m. 5 15 6 50. So yeah, in the middle of the night. Middle of the night. I think? No. No? Well. What time zone is? Well, I don't know what is CAT and what is EAT? I don't know what those things are. Oh, those are local times. The game's in local times? Eastern African time. I'm thinking EAT or either that or oh yeah. Yeah, it's early 3 a.m.. Early morning. Yeah, very familiar with that time of day. Actually, I prefer it because you get to do this stuff like this and if it wasn't for ADS-B, you'd get away with it. But. Just kidding everybody, I'm just kidding. Well, not really. So the interesting thing about this incident is that we got to talk about some of the idiosyncrasies of the 7 37, which as we were talking about before we started recording here. The 7 37 hangs onto a few things that I don't know why they haven't been updated. And we'll get into that in a little bit. So before we get to this whole thing, we got to talk about basically, how is it that a modern aircraft navigate from a to B? And it's very akin to when you plug in your phone, your navigation app, how to get from your house to say the airport, right? So you're going to get a set of directions, points, if you will, that you will follow that will get you from your home to the airport. You'll drive out of your house. You'll drive on the surface streets, you'll get on an on ramp to a freeway. You'll stay on the freeway until you get to the off ramp. Surface treats again and then you'll finally make it to the general area where the airport is and then go park your car and then you're there. Same thing here. As part of the pre flight, you were going to load activated and execute your fly plan, which you'll get off of your flight release. Manually, or just downlink it by a cars to your FMC directly. Now, FMC stands from flight management computer, and that is the heart of what's called a flat management system, which is a basically the brains of the aircraft. It's everything navigational performance wise and other subsystems are controlled by this FMS. And the FMC is the heart of that system. And the FMC you have a couple of subpages, one is the route page, one of the legs page. The route page is just that. That's where you put your route. So that's where you're going to put your combination of waypoints and airways that get you from a to B and then the lags page is going to be kind of like an expanded waypoint by a waypoint list of how to get from a to B and for the autopilot to be able to fly this, you have to put the you have to connect the autopilot to the FMC or the box via an interface called L now. That stands for lateral navigation, right? Does basically how you make the autopilot fly what's pre programmed in your FMC now other airplanes call it and have other airplanes call it and manage to do whatever it is. But Boeing is and that is a role mode. Two more things you have one thing called the rat discontinuity. Which is basically when you have a break in your legs page so you have an active navigational waypoint so up until a certain point. And then you have a gap after that last point and then the route begins again. What comes to mind? I was thinking about this earlier and I was like, well, where have I seen a rat just continuity? And then the bell went off, and I was like, well, going into Cincinnati the other day. I think it was a Jackie 5 arrival. And the arrival itself doesn't at the airport. It ends at a certain way point. And after that way point, the chart says, expect radar vectors to final intercept whatever procedure to whatever runway and then you land. And so there is no way for the FMC to coat that into your leg space. And so the FMC expects that once you get to that point, you're going to take over with another roll mode and navigate the aircraft. Another way to the following portion of flight plan. And then the last thing to talk about is what's called the conditional waypoint. And conditional waypoint is just that is a waypoint that is not defined by a LAT long, non geographic position. But as a condition and what comes to mind is, for example, I remember in Mexico City, for example, there was a mister bird procedure where you couldn't begin to turn until you got to a certain altitude because of obstacle clearance requirements. And so the flat magic computer will not command a turn until you get to that altitude until you fulfill that condition and you can begin that turn. And so with the basics of the FMC kind of down, we can go on and talk about the primary flight display there, which is the third graph that I had after the two. Approach church that one there. So you have your primary flight display and that's a 7 37 BFD and I'll tell you in a second. On the left, altitude and vertical speed on the right, compass rose at the bottom. You have your attitude in the middle. You have to cross hairs. Vertical line is a roll bar horizontal lines of pitch bar. Along the top, you have. The standards of your auto model. The middle portion there is your lateral mode, and the portion on the right there is your pitch mode. Right underneath that big FD,
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I've just had that question from a Bloomberg subscriber. Do we hear too much from the regional fed presidents? Well, I think that's fine. This is a regional third president to give their views. I think the audience, though, should understand who's important. And who's really important. Let's continue this conversation. Jay Powell is a guy. Anyone else? Of course. I think John Williams and Leo brainer. They're part of the troika. That's the three people that meet off into talk about the people who aren't familiar with former New York president part of the troika. Is the keepers and that's why this speech today gets so much attention. But Bill Dudley, the heart of this matter with your academics at Berkeley. You know, you just mentioned a group of people skilled in PhDs of economics and monetary policy. Are you suggesting that there's a two tier Central Bank structure now of the PhDs of monetary theory and everybody else? No. No, I'm not. I'm just saying that there's a few key seats, the German sheet, the vice chairman of the FMC, the vice chairman of the board of governors. They're a little bit more equal than others. Why don't we see much descent? I think we don't see much dissent because I think people basically bought into the transitory inflation story. The speech a year ago was correct in a lot of respects. I mean, there were a lot of the shift in demand from services to goods did push upward pressure on goods prices. And we knew that was going to revert once we reopened the economy. But what the fed missed, I think, was the labor market. The labor market turned out to be much tighter, much sooner than they expected. This occur because all of us in including public servants were slaves to green spans measured approach. For we so indoctrinated with the green spanning measured that we couldn't get away from it. Well, I think I would say it's actually more fighting the last war. So coming out of the great financial crisis wanted to be very
Bloomberg Radio New York
"fmc" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Say yeah we're looking at that We've certainly been nice because there will give us a level of comfort to know that we're not going to be behind the a ball again Well I mean as I also mentioned we do model alternative scenarios of various kinds And we in fact with every teal book which is our document that we use at the FMC we run half a dozen of them in great detail and people study those and help them think about alternatives So I'll just leave it at that I could Okay thank you I'll let you off the hook on that one With regards to inflation we've talked about it significantly here today and I think sometimes that you're giving way too much credit for it and getting way too much criticism for it I think that there are a lot of things that are outside your control that happen that basically affect inflation that you have to react to You don't make monetary policy for the administration side You don't make legislative policy for legislative side And yet you have to react to all those things And an economist I'm drinking around small business had a countless command to talk to our committee the other day And I asked him to break down the different causes of inflation And I said well let me identify at least a significant cause One is money supply the amount of money is pumped in Either through fed actions are through our actions as Congress Regulations supply chain slash workforce situations and energy And he broke a damn like this and he had some charts and he started going off and I said just give me the percentages And so he's a very roughly 40% due to money supply the money that goes in as a result of fit actions or congressional actions 20% regulations 20% supply chain and 20% energy So if you look at that I'm a mister foster while.
Esports Minute
Epic Games Puts Down Another $20M in Fortnite Prize Pools
"Certainly been an interesting year for epic games the developer of faith and its continued pushing the game into new territories, especially when it comes to interactive media and branding but they're also taking on Apple in an ongoing lawsuit. Apparently that lawsuit has really threaten the company's bottom line too bad though as yesterday epic announced another twenty million dollars would be put down for fortnite tournaments back in 2018 for the 2019 and 2020 Sears epic kok to put down 100 million dollars in total prizes on fortnite Esports events, and they came through they gave out a hundred million dollars over the last two years. The biggest paychecks came out of the former World Cup, which South forty million dollars awarded between the qualifiers and the main event many other events put up a couple of million here a couple of million. They're you know casual things in any other sport these would like a game. Massive Flagship events for epic. They were just a continuation of a huge promise. One of those events was the fortnite Champions series better known as the fmcs is the closest continuous structures. Fortnite Esports has ever had that event last year had a solid 3 million dollar prize pool yesterday. They announced the fortnite Champions series was jumping to twenty million dollars for the 2021 season off epic blog posts. They made it clear where exactly the money's going. First of all it's being more heavily weighted on winners than in the past where qualifiers would paid out pretty nicely this you gotta make the finals if you want any do here's how the twenty million dollars breaks down. The first important split is between the F and C S and yet unnamed mid season and end-of-year events. The fmcs will have twelve million dollars for its thorns. Well eight million is being held for events based off winners and qualifiers in previous f n c s events, so they're like part of the ecosystem but they're not part of the four individual Seasons wage. Brings me to the next split that twelve mil is being split among the 4f NCS Seasons leaving 3 mil per season. The seasons will happen along with the actual Seasons with the first one month beginning in late January early February. I believe don't have the date in front of me and ending in mid-march and so on and so forth through spring summer fall you guys you guys are seasons work. The final split is across seven different regions. And this is where it gets a little bit more confusing. Those seven regions are Europe Brazil Oceania the wage East Asia and then n a but it's split into two regions. Each one is not weighted equally either Europe has one point three million dedicated specifically to it the highest of any prize pool sneeze to Regions combined finish at just under 1. Mil Sil is next with three hundred grand then Asia with a hundred and fifty Grand Middle East with 120 and Oceania with ninety. It's both a bath. Viewership as well as a catering to where the best players are that make up for that
Esports Minute
Epic Games Announces Plans for Fortnite Esports in 2021
"Minute from E Sports Network. The Esports minute is presented by technology game-changers. Check them out at TGC play link below epic released a blog post yesterday talking about their plans for the fortnite Esports ecosystem in 2021. We've come a long way since epic pledged would hundred million dollars towards fortnite Esports events back in 2018. The game has waned in popularity a bit but still commands a massive audience according to Epic 15 million unique players took part in the end of the season event earlier this week. The competitive side was also supposed to have some consistency in 2024 the first time but as everyone knows consistancy and twenty20 just don't belong in the same sentence. So first let's go for the bad news from this blog post epic is not currently planning any in-person events for 2021 including the fortnite World Cup. This is unfortunate, but it off. Safe choice to make if we get a massive roll out of a vaccine in early spring which seems like the most likely possibility at this point that could all change but for now online events just have to be the plan change it on the positive side the Ford I championship series or f n c s we moved to trios as the primary form of competition previously solos and Duo's when the main choice in fortnite Esports in my opinion Iraq is a crucial aspect when it comes to enjoying e sports events and trios adds another level of communication and strategy. The fmcs will be the Bayside competition for fortnite Esports. Basically the closest thing to a regular season with the fmcs will be the Baseline competition for fortnite Esports. Basically the closest thing to a regular season, but epic will also be putting together more weekly tournaments more random unique tournaments and more Creator Cubs 2021 and not all of those will be in trios. So fans of Duos and solos will still have some events to look forward to basically they're mostly missing
Eric Harley and Gary McNamara
Dallas County Reports 5 Additional COVID-19 Deaths
"Dallas County reporting five additional deaths for a total of ninety nine three more people have died from the virus in Tarrant county Clayton Nevil W. B. A. P. new the federal Medical Center in fort worth is expected to begin testing inmates and staff without symptoms as the number of coronavirus cases there continues to go up this woman who didn't want to be named says she's worried about her brother who is an inmate at the FMC as people dying in there my brother my brother is it'll read if you didn't do a heinous crime but he could potentially have a desk the bureau of prisons reports that at least three people have died at the medical prison and more than two hundred fifty people have tested positive for the