35 Burst results for "FED"
Anti-Kremlin protests continue in Russia's far eastern city of Khabarovsk
"Thousands of people took to the streets again in Russia's. Russia's far, east and city of Khobar of yesterday protests against Moscow, and the Kremlin have now been going on for over three weeks. Joining me for more to mark. Gherman Russia analyst stunt senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute Good Morning and welcome to the program Mark. Could we first recap what exactly has happened so far? The first protests were sparked by the arrest off a local politician weren't they? They were the local governor elected local governor Sergei for Guile, and this was on fifteen year old charges of involvement with some contract killing, which may or may not be true. He was set me involved in some questionable business. But the widespread assumption amongst the locals was that it was simply because the Kremlin was was peeved at him at the fact that he had stood against their candidate and then just simply rummaged around looking for suitable charges, and since then these protests have continued for, as you said, now, almost a month and it's really. So transmogrify from being about four, how to actually being about Moscow. About Putin and about the sense that in a way, the government in Moscow cares about the rest of Russia outside. It's ring road when it comes to taxing them rather than looking after them. Have those protests course most grow by surprise? Absolutely, an indeed one of the interesting signs of that is precisely that there has been such a clampdown on any references to the protests. In the official TV media, we've seen accounts in the newspapers and online sites, but very much from the televisions point of view, it's nothing and that's a classic sign off what what Moscow does when it doesn't know what to do. It basically tries to by itself, some breathing space, but the trouble is cost nowadays. Russians. Are Very Internet savvy and. And the news has gone out anyway, and at the moment I, think the Russians Russian government is essentially playing a waiting game. They don't really want to try and take on these thousand strong protests especially because the local law enforcement and security agencies frankly don't particularly infused to do so and therefore ain't now waiting hoping that it'll die down to the point when they can actually begin to crack down. Do you think that's going to to the protests? We'll just eventually die down. Well I think the honest answer is, yes. We saw the most recent protests are actually smaller than in previous ones and impact that was because it was rainy rainy day in such like. But because it's not as though, these can can go anywhere what the what, what are the real significance not that somehow this protest will, it will explode and expand. It's precisely what it shows about incipient protests potential within Russia because there's nothing particularly special about kebabs. He's not like he was unusually poor or badly hit by corona virus or whatever, and I think. Right. This is so worrying for the Kremlin, is that sense of fine we can ride out this one protest in this one city. But what does it say about the potential for more protests all across the country exactly disease dimension that. Putin rather strong grip on power buddies this. Really, the case everywhere in Russia also in more distant places such as city in the Far East? Well. This is interesting thing. It's that you might have protests the loyalty to the center. Until. Push comes to shove. We've seen as particularly in Russia east of the Urals for which there is classic. Russian proverb God is in Heaven Bizarre is far away where absolutely Moscow is a very distant force and we've seen it in the past where actually local authorities. Are often in cahoots with local security operators in their own corrupt deals and so forth. But also they feel the same kind of pressures and resentment as ordinary Russians. So I think one of the strengths of Putin's regime has always been that he's understood when not to push when to make concessions. But at the moment in a corona virus has eroded his personal support, the money is tight it's that much harder to make the kind of. Deals Shantou involve splashing the money around that. He has in the past. So it's an interesting question. I mean, yes, he's not gonNA be swept away by this. He's not disappear anytime soon, but the slow corrosion, the legitimacy of his regime is becoming all the more visible exactly, and let's remember this beauty can did now stay in power until two thousand and thirty six thanks to changes to Russia's constitution. Do you think he actually has to address this issue of erosion and do you think people are going to appreciate him for years to come? Well I mean who knows quite how history is going to take him. Frankly, I think probably quite harshly. He will have to address the question of legitimacy, but again I think the thing is that. Putting has been around longtime. He's been power twenty, two years I. Think if trump has exhausted his capacities to reinvent himself he's got these grand national projects that you meant to be about totally reconfiguring national interest structure and health and such like, and it's really quite telling that he's recently pushed back the timeframe for their accomplishment. He clearly has a very ambitious agenda. Agenda, but he doesn't seem to know either how to really accomplish it, and secondly how to afford it. So I think he's he's hoping at the moment that things just get better that do course the virus abates. The economy stabilizes and things will work out not sure how far holding your fingers. A crossing your fingers is really going to be a proper answer. The most go the Kremlin on Moscow seemed to be waiting that these protests were seeing in Cabbarov Squirrel, just gradually die away. But what if they doesn't what kind of a warning example this? Of Four four Moscow and UNFOR, Vladimir? Putin. We we have reached elections coming up rather soon. How can make sure that something like that doesn't happen in those cities in those regions as well? Well, here's the problem he can't because it's really about is going to catch nation of random factory in football was not particularly personally popular. It was more the just his arrest, which under other circumstances might well have. Have passed pretty much unnoticed. Just somehow catalyzed. They just general sense of being fed up. There was a coastal city. Now. Elsewhere, we have certain places I. Mean, for example, in in Novosibirsk in Siberia, there's sort of contested elections coming up where we actually have real opposition politics emerging. The government is going to hope that it considered squelch Shalit's, but didn't that it has to have these parliamentary elections however. Much the parliament itself is just a rubber stamp. Nonetheless, it has to have these elections and elections. Inevitably case it paces when situations are that, there will be discussions disagreements, it will generate or kind of precious. Again, what we're seeing something that means it's highly difficult to predict. That's irritating for an analyst like myself. You difficult to predict exactly what and where it's going to happen, but there is a prevailing sense in Moscow that. The country is entering some bumpy. Times? Would it be easier for peace in to lead his country. If it was simply smaller, it is understandable that Russians thousands of miles away from Moscow? Mayfield. They don't wants to be controlled by the capital, isn't it? Exactly. Eleven time zones away or whatever I mean the actually that sense that Moscow doesn't really care is really quite pervasive, but to be perfectly honest look I've traveled outside Moscow itself. Even within the Moscow region, you find these pockets of ticky rural poverty, where actually all the shiny new infrastructure, the bright lights, the hipster bars and things of Moscow seem alone wrong where way. So size does matter, but I think it's really not the key issue. It's about the extent to which this is a regime which is focused on Moscow and Petersburg, a handful of other major cities and really has developed them at the expense of the rest of the country. And just finally, Mark Looking at these protests and fierce Moscow and beauty may have. How can President Putin bring the nation together? Again is widely assumed that looking for enemies from the West has been one way for into boost his own popularity domestically. Do you expect that we may see some kind of new maneuvers from the president in the future if things get worse domestically. Well, there's this overwhelming assumption in the West that, yes, that he tries to distract attention this way we have to realize that with the exception of the two, thousand, fourteen annexation of Crimea. which was very, very unusual case. None of the various overseas adventures that Putin has engaged in Syria and so forth have been either driven by domestic considerations or frankly popular i. mean half the time. Actually the Russian regime lies to its own people to claim that it's at interventions abroad are much less than they really are. So I think what we're going to say is not some kind of adventure abroad, but we will. Will see a rising tone to this propaganda about the world is a hostile place and the Russia is beleaguered fortress. He doesn't make Putin popula. What it does do is it legitimises his Moose clamped down on the opposition because he can say, this is not a time to be divided because Russia's very future is at threat
Federal Reserve Expands Global Role
"Back, in March and April when much of the country was in lockdown, the Federal Reserve made a number of bold moves to keep the wheels of finance turning in the US. But the central bank also took action overseas lending. Massive amounts of money to global economy's in crisis, and that marked a huge expansion of the Fed's role on the world stage. Our Wall Street Journal Economics correspondent, Nick Tim rose joins me now with more details. So nick the actions event has taken to bolster the economy during the pandemic have been pretty unprecedented. You looked at how historically the Fed's been resistant to being a backup lender on a global scale. Tell us about the situation prior to the pandemic. The Fed has a domestic mandate, right? Their job is to make that inflation is stable in the United States and. Can boost employment as much as possible within the confines of keeping prices stable, and so they've always kind of shied away from accepting this role of being global lender of last resort. But that really changed in the second and third week of March when the coronavirus pandemic went global and reach the US. Remind us of the domestic actions. The Fed took back in March and April. So the Fed did two things in March I, they cut their short-term interest rate to zero at two emergency meetings, and they also announced plans to buy a large amount of treasury bonds and orange back securities because those two markets which traditionally or the most deepened liquid markets are not functioning properly, and so that was actually kind of a scary moment global finance because you expect the treasury market to be a place where you can trade at any time of day and and it was, it wasn't really working that way in the middle of March. Now, in addition to those steps, the Fed also took action to bolster global economy is, can you explain what actions the Central Bank took? So the Fed activated a network of swap lines and what those are their agreements with foreign central banks that allow central banks to borrow dollars from the Fed. Then they can lend those dollars to their to their own banks. It's a way for the Fed to make sure that if there is a crisis in which. Institutions Banks, life, insurance companies in other countries need to get access to dollars, they can do it. It's something. The Fed does very rarely, but they've done it during times of global stress including during the two thousand, eight financial crisis, and why it helped was in the middle of March. Everybody wanted to get their hands on dollars, and so they were selling, they were panicked selling even safe assets like treasuries. By allowing other countries to make dollars more available, it may have stopped these panic sales of. Treasury. Because if you want to get dollars and you're selling safe assets like treasuries and you now know, well, actually these plans are gonNA. Make dollars available your own market and it helps to slow down that kind of Hanoch hoarding of dollars as you. Right. This is something that happens pretty quietly and sort of under the radar. Why is that? Well, it happened under the radar because even though the Fed announced, they were doing this. There was so much else going on at the time that it really didn't get that much attention. So the Fed, for example announced they were going to make. Trillions of dollars of loans needed through these emergency lending facilities in the united. States but those took a long time to get up and running the dollar swap networks went and took effect almost right away, and so when I may the Fed had lent four, hundred, fifty, billion dollars abroad through these networks, it took much longer for their other emergency loan programs to get up and running. Do you think going forward and having taken. This action will embolden the Fed to intervene in this way again or take a more active role. While the big question now is is what will investors in the United States? In, other countries expect the Fed to do during the next crisis. Obviously, we've never had a global pandemic. We've never had a crisis like this where any concerns about you know so-called moral house were bailing out financial institutions. They sort of went by the wayside because This was virus nobody could have planned for this, but there is the question. The next time? Something like this happens? What is the federal into to do?
Health officials warn there may never be a "silver bullet" for coronavirus
"It's been six months since the World Health Organization declared Corona virus a global health emergency today, the head of the organization said. There's no silver bullet to stop it. In Europe. There's been an uptick of cove in the French has set up a testing stations at airports. And so have the Germans, though. Over the weekend there was pushed back. Right wing demonstrators fed up with restrictions marched in Berlin demanding what they called their
N.J. federal judge whose son was killed and husband shot speaks out, calls for better protections
"The the shooting shooting at at her her home home in in New New Jersey, Jersey, in in which which cops cops say say Guy Guy was was a a men's men's rights rights activists activists killed killed her her son son and and seriously seriously wounded wounded her her husband. husband. In In the video judge Salis calls for more privacy protections that she says could have prevented this guy who she called a lunatic hiding in plain sight from finding her home. We're living Every parent's worst nightmare. Making preparations. Barry Barry. Our only child. He was just 20 years old. The guy who shot him later committed suicide. Used the info he got from the Internet and posed as a fed ex delivery person to get entry into that home. Hello, Congresswoman. Karen Bass is finding out that if you're in
Trump Wants to Ban TikTok, NASA-SpaceX Mission Success, & Unemployment Benefits Expire - Monday, August 3rd
"It's Monday August third president trump wants to ban TIKTOK. Info on the NASA spacex mission success plus unemployment benefits have expired why trump's team is interested in Biden's VP pick and more. Welcome to Rob Song, podcast where I bring you the latest Progressive News and politics and ten minutes or less I'm Robert Cunningham thank you for tuning in. Let's get informed. So president trump announced on Friday night that he wants to ban Tiktok Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that trump would be making an announcement on these matters in the coming days he said this on Fox News Sunday morning futures where he also said that Tiktok, the Chinese owned short form video APP needs to be taken down via executive action in addition to Tiktok. Mike. POMPEO. Pointed to we chat, which is a Chinese messaging APP saying that both of these are feeding data directly to the. Chinese Communist Party quote for a long time a long time. The United States just said well goodness if we're having fun with it or if a company can make money off of it, we're going to permit that to happen president trump said enough going on the secretary of state added and we are going to fix it and so he will take action in the coming days with respect to a broad array of national security risks that are presented by software that connected to the Chinese Communist Party. Microsoft has emerged as wanting to potentially by all US operations of tiktok accents reports that trump does have a deal on his desk where Microsoft would lead acquisition of the US operations of six talk and Microsoft seems to believe that it's possible that a total separation can happen from tiktok parent company by Dance. It's important for you to understand that presidents normally can't just order a ban on individual companies like this but the fact that Tiktok has a foreign owner allows the Treasury Department to have broad. Authority over it. Now, at this point, it's unclear whether trump is going to allow Microsoft to buy it or if trump is just going to push for an all out ban, we don't know. But what we do know is that this is super weird coming just months before an election six does have one hundred, million US users, and so it is rather strange move it could alienate some I mean granted I don't know if it would make much of a difference, but it just seemed strange. NASA astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Bankin are safely on earth after a historic flight to and from the International Space Station provided by SPACEX Axios says on Saturday afternoon both astronaut splashdown into the Gulf of Mexico after about two forty, eight PM eastern time a space x vessel was able to recover both astronauts from their crew, dragon? Capsule. Hurley in bank in two month mission was the first time that people have been launched into orbit from the United States. The end of the space shuttle. Program in twenty eleven. This new move of partnering for Space Exploration, with private companies can allow NASA to act more of like a buyer instead of a provider of these services now and will free up NASA's budget to focus on things like getting people to the moon and eventually other planets in the future. In fact, NASA and SPACEX already have another trip planned this time for six months with multiple. NASA. Going up to the International Space Station, this will take place around late. September. So be on the lookout. Additional unemployment benefits of six hundred dollars per week expired on Friday July thirty first and reportedly the White House Senate. Republicans and Democrats are all know we're closer to a deal? Apparently, all sides are on board though for another twelve, hundred dollar check like was done with the cares act earlier this year the main point of disagreement is the additional unemployment benefits six hundred dollars extra. A month is what people have been receiving since the cares act was passed Democrats want to continue at that rate while Republicans want to. Bring that down to two hundred additional dollars per week while eventually moving holy to seventy percent of lost wages Republicans additionally wanted to get a one week extension on the six hundred dollars per week of additional benefits passed quickly. But the Democrats are refusing because they think that the Republicans are just GonNa. Use It as just a quick win and move on. But the Democrats are saying that they want a full robust bill. Now, the Democrats have proposed a three trillion dollar deal while the Republicans are looking to pass. A one trillion dollar deal, and as of yesterday junk Schumer the Senate Minority leader said that there were significant divisions remaining but good progress is being made quote. We made good progress. There are lots of things we are still divided on and we're not close to an agreement yet, but we are making good progress and I'm hopeful that we can get to an agreement. Now they're going to resume talks today. Okay. But do not be fooled. The Republicans are trying to place the onus here on Democrats but Democrats came. Up with a bill back in May the bill back in May like I said had a three trillion dollar price tag. It was approved by the House but then has not been voted on in the Senate and Senate Republicans want to have a one trillion dollar bill that does not do nearly enough in my opinion. So but as of right now you know who's GonNa Suffer America, the American people that are unemployed we just had on Thursday. One of the worse GDP records for quarter ever if not the worst. The percentage of GDP lost was close to thirty three percent. I hope we get a deal soon things are super hard to pass in Washington obviously, and I'm glad that the Democrats are sticking their feet in and trying to get this thing passed the Democrats are not perfect and I fear that they're going to cave too much here. But we've got to get something done because there is an eviction crisis looming we need to renew the moratorium on fictions. Now CNBC just posted a study recently that twenty two to fifty nine percent depending on the state that you live in of renters may be facing eviction as a result of the corona virus economic circumstances these numbers are horrifying and I'm sure this isn't the last time you'll be hearing about it. Trump's campaign paused ads over the weekend, which is really weird because they wanted to rebrand their messaging and new ads launching today are going to be depicting Joe Biden as a puppet of the radical left. This comes from two senior campaign officials but the most recent internal polls show that the puppet of the left's attack on Biden is going to resonate with voters and speaking personally in someone who lives in a very heavy trump territory. The this is the talking point that I've heard Oh Biden's not the problem it's. Going to be the VP you have to look out for as if Kamla Harrison. Some sort of crazy radical assuming he chooses someone like her speaking of the VP spot trump's campaign is very interested in that because the quote unquote radical left thing that they're going to be using their ads is a placeholder for whoever Joe Biden ends up picking. By the way, we will learn who Joe Biden is going to pick around on tenth multiple sources have suggested he said now he pushed back his self imposed deadline from. The first week of August to the second week and one source has said that it's going to be August tenth now. So be on the lookout here. No matter who Joe Biden picks. I think that Joe Biden is well-positioned. Of course, we all have to go out and vote that. This is not a matter of that we have to vote even if we live in California or Massachusetts or Oklahoma Even for God's sake, we have to vote for Joe Biden, but it doesn't really matter as much who he picks. Think this go around because trump's campaign is reportedly very upset that Biden doesn't have the unfavorability rating that Hillary Clinton did in two, thousand, sixteen, all of this trump at drama gotta be Biden's campaign to respond Andrew Bates. Director of rapid response said quote the American people know Joe Biden and after seven consecutive months of failed leadership during the worst possible health crisis in generations they know that our nation's capacity to join the rest of the world beating back cove nineteen has been crippled by one overriding burden donald trump. Representative James Clyburn of South Carolina said on Sunday that he believes trump is trying to put a cloud over the election and that he does not plan to leave office. If he loses Clyburn told CNN that the American people had better wake up to trump and he compared trump to Mussalini and said Russian President Vladimir Putin is akin to Hitler further representative Clyburn said quote I don't think he plans to leave the White House. He doesn't plan to have fair unfettered elections I believe that he plans to install. Himself in some kind of emergency way to continue to hold office. Now, all of this is to say everything that Clyburn is saying here means that we have to so overwhelmed the vote that trump cannot cheat. We have to force him out of office because on January twentieth at noon no matter how hard trump tries he will not be the president if we overwhelmed the vote and like Joe. Biden. So that's what we have to do. If you need help getting registered in your state, go to vote Dot
Apple still #1: podcast listening via mobile apps
"If you thought apple was under pressure from spotify. Lipson. The largest paid podcast host in the world says otherwise from their official PODCAST, the feed, Pero, Walsh, the big dog in aggregate are APPs is still apple with apple podcast and itunes coming in at sixty eight point two percent of all downloads for June, which is up a bit from April Sixty six point five. So. Yeah. The death of apples podcasts is been greatly overstated. Another stat from Lipson is the only not point two five percent of podcast to listen to on a smart speaker. Tom. Webster. Has Thoughts about that. We linked to them from our show notes and newsletter today. For advertising how well do podcasts convert pod sites has posted their conversion benchmark reports based on one point two, billion Ad Impressions from twenty eight, Million Dollars Worth of advertising podcasting convert significantly better than social media they say an embedded ads were twice as well as dynamically inserted ones. Dylan, pugh spotify's former head of podcast monetization in London has launched his own sports and lifestyle podcast company Komodo launched at the end of July the first podcast is all about themselves Komodo the startup journey, it's hosted on Spree Cup. Pot chaser has added the ability to connect your twitter account to discover new podcasts and friends listen and audio production company London is looking for podcast producers. You'll find that pod jobs dot net ads ways has added additional targeting for podcast advertisers who use their programmatic advertising platform podcast Garden, company that promised free. Unlimited web hosting has surprise suddenly gone off line the company last posted on twitter or facebook in. December. It hosted at least two hundred podcasts. Arabic podcast platform podium has to seed funding round of Eight, hundred, thousand dollars. They've launched ten new shows which will be exclusive to podiums APP for the first two months and podcast. Makes podcasts out of news websites according to a writer willing to. And in Paul Cost News here's Conan. O'Brien guess what my podcast was not supposed to come back until September. But surprise my new season starts this Monday August third today podcast junkies interviews. Dave. Zohrab. From charitable and previously on we fakes space junk and so left leftovers flirting helpless and space. We fix space jam returns on August. It's a comedy fiction podcast recorded entirely in lockdown and parts of the fable and folly network,
Milky Mama's Krystal Duhaney Busts Some Breastfeeding Myths
"I. Have Crystal Do Haney here. She's a registered nurse International Board certified lactation consultant in a breastfeeding mom. She's been on a journey with it, which made her passionate in how we know her is through Milky Mama. So we're so glad that you are here with us so much for coming on. Thank you so much for having me. I'm so excited to be here. Yeah. I'd love for you to tell us how you got into all of this. So. Yeah. I struggled to Breastfeed Monnaie first child my son, and I, realized that there were very few resources. There wasn't really a place that I go for help I asked my. Pediatrician in. He said Wall. You can always give formula which is fantastic. Of course, lots of months fleet, formula. I was formula Fed, but that's not what I wanted for my journey. So I was a little discouraged but determined to make it work. So I began researching for myself to help have a more successful journey. and. We struggled our way to a through breastfeeding, but we made it to breastfeeding for over two years and then went became pregnant with my daughter. I was determined to have a much better experience I started from the get go from pregnancy on educating myself trying to find ways to support my milk production especially, returning work as a registered nurse on a busy medical Fulbari. It was difficult to find time to pomp and to maintain my supply is I, wanted to find a way. To do out a delicious cookie recipe. That helped to increase my supply I started with my friends and they loved it. Then I started selling it to local mothers and from there. We just continue to grow very rapidly, and now we've shipped out over a million orders across the world to Moms, everywhere. Wow. That's so amazing. I wrote that down I was like, how did you come up with this amazing cookie recipe? because. That's definitely something I'm I'm going to have to look into here very soon, but that you had like a love for baking as well. I get. Even, as a kid I've always loved baking I've always just loved being in the kitchen. So it kind of came natural. I just figured I could bake something I love to Bake I love cookies. Kind of you know was was easy solution for me We've expanded our product offerings now to wow, we offer brownies, we offer herbal supplements for those that don't want to eat cookies brownies. Day We offer beverage mixes, eliminates tons of stuff but what's most important is our network of breastfeeding support that is really the backbone of our company. We provide dictation consultations both virtual and in percent one for not in the middle of a pandemic. We also provide flange consultations, lot of pumping MOMS have no idea what slam site is to use in really impact up production. We have an amazing support group were very active on social media. With our social media, using our social media feeds to educate and empower about breastfeeding as well. So it's really more than a treat company. It's really told little sisterhood I like to call it of breastfeeding in pumping. Mama's just supporting each other. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. I know I was checking now. All of your guys is Info and although you do have amazing products is the support. It is the being able to. Find a consultants or even hop on the phone with somebody who can help you through your journey and know that. I mean, we're going dive into some of the myths that breastfeeding isn't always easy for everyone and it doesn't always come naturally and I. Love that you guys talk about that. So I'd love to dive into some of those myths and I know one of them is that. Your baby latch on and it should be easy and it should be natural. That's a very common myth and I experienced the same thing you know you look at, maybe you might see a mom, which is a whole other issue that it's very rare that you'll see on breastfeeding in a magazine because breastfeeding unfortunately is still not completely normalized, but we're getting there. Right. So let's say you see an advertisement of a mom breastfeeding nine times out of ten. She's smiling and like this is the greatest thing ever, and this is fantastic in it so easy and so when I saw those as a pregnant mom, I was like Oh like you just latched the baby, the baby's good to go. But my experience wasn't Mike that my first latch was painful My baby didn't have a deep latch and no one told me otherwise like everyone said Oh. It's okay. It gets better your Nipples, oh bleed, but they'll get better. And no one told me that that's not okay. My Nipple, should it be falling off and I'm trying to latch I? Think that it's really important to have and to set realistic expectations for parents so that they know, hey, it's normal to be sentenced to test some tenderness and soreness. It's normal to be a little sore and latching although it's natural breastfeeding is considered natural. It's still a skill that. That you and your baby needs to learn. So don't expect things to just happen. Perfectly, you know seek help is nothing wrong with seeking help There's nothing wrong with with checking in with the lactation consultant before leaving the hospital I, think that's really important. Make sure you get checked before leave muscle so that you can explain okay before you get home. Yeah. For sure. Will I feel like though? I've heard. Be Opposite I've heard. It shouldn't be painful at all. It should be easy and. Basically. If there is any pain than your baby's not latched right or there's a problem, but I know that they're still gonNA probably be some soreness either way. You know and I always use this analogy, and I apologize because I'm like the Queen of terrible analogies. But I just think things that are inappropriate. But this is the only way that my brain thinks about it like or you had a baby, I can guarantee that there wasn't another human sucking on your breasts. Every two hours if that was your life before I'm jealous but. That wasn't the case. So it's very normal with the simulation that you're gonNA have some tenderness and soreness, and it's very also really important to distinguish between soreness and tenderness and pain that toe curling teeth grinding painting that a lot of US associate with with latching. That's very different sort tenderness that goes away after the latches established and babies. Drinking's is normal pain that lasts the duration of the nursing action is not normal
Foxes Have Dined on Our Leftovers for 30,000 Years
"Fox's hunt small animals and when other predators including US kill large animals foxes are known to scavenge the leftovers. Now, a study of their scavenging shows that Fox's have slyly relied on people for food for tens of thousands of years a solid Fox's benefit a not today from humans I was wondering if this is also the case in the past Chris Bowman from the University of Michigan's Institute for Scientific Archaeology. Humans may have had a hand in driving the extinction of large urban stores like mammoths and mastodons in the late Pleistocene, which ended around twelve thousand years ago. But we inadvertently helped other species and Bouwman suspects that plays a scene Era Fox's may have been among them. So Bellman and his team obtained the remains. Of Seventy. Fox's found in southwestern. Germany. They range from around forty two thousand years ago when neanderthals lived in the area to some thirty, thousand years ago Homo Sapiens came to dominate the region. In this study, we analyzed the question of the Fox. saw doubt indeed this different strategies of feeding the carbon and nitrogen isotope in the Fox bones supplied clues to what the Fox's had eaten. And at the earlier Neanderthal era sites a few the Fox's hunted rodents but most diet indistinguishable from the larger carnivores meaning that they regularly scavenged from the kills made by woven bears. But by the late Pleistocene when we showed up the Fox's had switched to a diet of mainly reindeer and horse me, that is human table scraps. The finding is in the journal plus. One. And so this one niche that we figured out that comes when Homo Sapiens this area is more or less stable. So focuses have time to feed on this results over the last eight years of their lives, and that's very cool because now we know that humans must have made some changes in the environment to provide this niche neanderthals Shirley hunted animals too, but there weren't enough of them or they didn't stay in one place long enough for the foxes to adapt to scavenging off their dinner plates Homo Sapiens on the other hand did stick around long enough to affect the Fox's foraging strategy. Bellman says that studying the remains of opportunistic scavengers like Fox's at learned to take of human societies can offer useful information about human impacts on ecosystems over time.
U.S. to Act on China Software Beyond TikTok, Pompeo Says
"Some of the top stories here, the Trump Administration to announce measures shortly against Chinese own software deemed to pose national security risks. So this is well beyond TIC tac Comments from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suggests a whitening of the US measures. Beyond the popular Chinese music video out Pompeo, speaking earlier on Fox News, these Chinese software companies doing business in the United States, whether it's tic tac, or we checked their countless more Our feeding data directly to the Chinese Communist Party. Their natural security address could be their facial recognition pattern. It could be information about the residents that phone numbers to friends who they're connected to. Those are the issues that President Trump's been clear We're going to take care of these air true national security issues. Mike Pompeo. Now, sources say that moved to ban Tic tac from the United States could upend a potential acquisition ploy from Microsoft. Even so, over the weekend, the South China Morning Post are leading English paper here in Hong Kong reported that TIC tac parent bite dance would prefer to spin off the up. Rather than sell to Microsoft, Rish.
Boston - Cape Cod commissioner urges action against sharks
"Is once again, sparking questions of just how to deal with great white sharks. Feeding on Cape Cod Seal population W B. C's are Cohen has that story? Vegetable County Commissioner Ron Beatty says officials have to try more things to see if they could make the capes beaches safer for swimmers. Anything. Got using the shock netting in conjunction with other mitigation measures for the short term, a CZ Wella aerial surveillance drones. But the stage has really done nothing, He says. Individuals concerned about shark attacks might consider a shark shield. A device that admits a small current that sharks can detect where an ankle on ankle bracelet risk being underwater film maker and a colleague of mine, Jonathan Byrd. Says there is some evidence that these devices might keep some sharks away, but not one that's intent on attacking you in controlled studies. They have found that if the shark wants to bite you or thinks you're seal, it's not going to be deterred by electrical fields. Beach managers all over the world have been dealing with shocks for decades, and no one has found a perfect way to keep them out. Sharks live in the ocean people that's their home. You want to go into their home? Take your chances aren't Cohen W. B z Boston's
Washington, DC - Maryland family’s quarantine garden is thriving, so they’re giving away free produce
"At home during the pandemic, decided to plant a backyard garden. Things and it grew so much a lot of produce on their hands, and they're giving it away for free and trying to raise money for charity to Andrew Camilla and his 11 year old daughter. Kaylin originally planned a small garden, but they won't up with lots of plants searching raspberries, too. Butternut squash or strawberries. That's just some of it. As we kind of got a little carried away with ourselves. We realized that we were gonna have enough. Produce toe, you know, feed a small army, so they set up a farm stand in their front yard in Crofton to give away the produce and ask people if they're willing and able to donate to Alex's lemonade stand, Kalen says. I sit out there with the big chair. And we have a little fruit baskets with the vegetables and produce that we have ran out earlier this week, but we'll have more when ripe and ready. Read Maura w t
MIami - Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Issues State Of Emergency For East Coast Counties
"Course with the East Coast. I'm Ham Crusoe. Fox News Hurricane is pounding the central Bahamas with heavy rain and 85 mile per hour winds, and by tonight Florida will start feeling it. Latest projections have zaius coming very close to the east coast of Florida as a cat, a category one HURRICANE governor Rhonda Santas who declared a state of emergency for all counties along Florida's Atlantic Coast, says federal aid has been approved. Basement for direct federal assistance as well as all the mass care, so the feeding and sheltering will be eligible for federal reimbursement through FEMA, which we very much appreciate. States of emergency also declared in North Carolina and Virginia. By Tuesday, the storm could be impacting the Northeast. There's a
Researchers Use Artificial Intelligence To Study Elephant Calls
"Which is a problem If you study them, we basically have no idea what they're doing, how they're using the landscape all of those kinds of things. Peter Rag is the behavioral Ecologist at Cornell University. And he says one way to solve the problem is to eavesdrop on the elephants instead. Leads Cornell's elephants were listening project, which uses an array of microphones in the rainforests of Central Africa to record the rumbling and trumpeting of elephants. They pick up other sounds too, like the chest beats of guerillas. By now, he estimates they have gathered a 1,000,000 hours of tape. And he says, analyzing that much tape is a beast. Very, very slow, very tedious. Jonathan Jones, Selman agrees. He volunteered on the project as a teenager, hand picking elephant calls. He thought there had to be a better way. So he and fellow Stanford grad Nikita Demir trained artificial intelligence to do the job. Instead, Here's Gom Selman, we feed these models, hundreds of examples of both audio clips with and without elephant calls, and then these deep learning models of basically the overtime. Able TTO learn specific features that the people training these models don't fully know ourselves. They'll present the model next week at a virtual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Other Wreg hasn't yet tried the new algorithm. He says. It seems faster and more accurate than earlier. Aye, aye attempts, which gives him and other scientists a better chance to decode the mysteries of elephants rumbles. This is their language. If we can start understanding that better, we know Maur. What's going on in the forest where we can't see anything because to keep an eye on the forest you got to keep in here.
Researchers Use Artificial Intelligence To Study Elephant Calls
"Elephants True to the name spend their lives hidden in the rainforest, which is a problem If you study them, we basically have no idea what they're doing, how they're using the landscape all of those kinds of things. Peter Reggae is the behavioral Ecologist at Cornell University. And he says one way to solve the problem is to eavesdrop on the elephants instead. Greg leads Cornell's Elephant Listening project, which uses an array of microphones in the rainforests of Central Africa to record the rumbling and trumpeting of elephants. They pick up other sounds too, like the chest beats of guerillas. By now, he estimates they've gathered a 1,000,000 hours of tape. And he says, analyzing that much tape is a beast. Very, very slow, very tedious. Jonathan Jones, Selman agrees. He volunteered on the project as a teenager, hand picking elephant calls. He thought there had to be a better way. So he and fellow Stanford grad Nikita Dimier trained artificial intelligence to do the job. Instead, Here's Gom Selman, we feed these models, hundreds of examples of both audio clips with and without elephant calls, and then these deep learning models are basically the overtime. Able TTO learn specific features that the people training these models don't fully know ourselves. They'll present the model next week at a virtual meeting of the Ecological Society of America. Other Wreg hasn't yet tried the new algorithm, he says. It seems faster and more accurate than earlier. Aye, aye attempts, which gives him and other scientists a better chance to decode the mysteries of elephants rumbles. This is their language. If we can start understanding that better. We know Maur. What's going on in the forest where we can't see anything because to keep an eye on the forest, you got to keep an ear on it, too.
Facebook will add music videos after deals with labels
"The social media giant announced to be AH Block post today. That it has reached deals with PMG, Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and others that will allow it to launch music videos on its platform, with users able to react to and comment on them and share their own music videos on their own news feeds or in groups. The hackers behind the high profile online, breaking
What will be in the next stimulus bill?
"Get right into it. I, want to ask about the economic outlook to get numbers this morning on detail sale showing up pretty nice rebound in June. But then on the other hand, you have seventeen million Americans a still touring to unemployment insurance. And that you couple it with the epidemiological numbers I. Guess I'm just wondering, do you still see the baseline as a recovery in the second half of this year as I? Think you said back can. You highlighted a bunch of cross-currents it were trying to analyze and understand, and of course, the just an enormous amount of uncertainty and the uncertainty really stems directly with the you know the corona virus in the end pandemic and and how that behaves and and how effective and successful the efforts to contain it at the same time to bring the economy. Back up to full speed. So right now, the way I'm reading is still consistent with you know how you described and I've been talking about it. I, expect the second half to be a continued a period of economic recovery. But it's still you know we're in a very deep hole unemployment is over eleven percent. We have a long ways to go to get back to full strength My hope is is though that will continue to see positive signs of a gradual recovery over the second half. Half of this year into next year. But right now, this is camp critical inflection point. We're seeing these mixed signals in different states where the states where the case The number of new cases has been rising or definitely seen people back from going to restaurants, and in other things, wound states like where I am in New York around here, we are still seeing steady improvement in terms of people getting back to work and going out to restaurants and things like that. So it's IT'S A. Complicated situation and were watching all that you know high frequency data very closely to see what's going on. So, something that was interesting from the Beige Book, that was just released yesterday that in New York. This was the case in many other districts as well. Are there were stories of furloughed workers that have now been laid off permanently and I guess I'm wondering what you're seeing specifically in the second district covers New York Arts of new, Jersey Connecticut of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands. What are you seeing there? You mentioned also earlier this morning that you think it's going to essential for fiscal authorities. Quote, put cash directly in the hands of Americans based off of what you're seeing the district. What would that look like is that an extension of Ui maybe more picky P, for example. Yes. So what we are seeing and what I'm hearing is definitely that this obviously is a situation where a lot of employers don't have demand for their products and services whether you're restaurants or other. You know businesses They are having to to lay off workers despite their efforts, and despite the PGA and other programs have been there to provide a support of businesses and obviously to the unemployed. And households more generally. So I, I would take to kind of signals from what we're seeing is obviously, this is going to be a longer more drawn out period of getting through the pandemic I. think that you know work businesses are struggling because they don't have revenue state local governments are struggling because they don't have a tax revenue or other sources of revenue right now, and I do think an important lesson of the past few months, the federal actions and I really don't think of this is stimulus that really think of these actions to to help support Basically, grants and transfers to households and businesses has been absolutely critically important it's meant the people who've lost their jobs have been able to continue to pay the ramp of food on the table. It's also the pre program which you know is obviously had his challenges has been I've heard this from businesses or district has been effective and getting money to the small businesses. So they can keep going and hopefully come back. So my lesson from this disease have been effective tools. I'm not saying what Congress should or shouldn't do specifically, but this has been effective at dealing with the situation through July and I think you know are there are lessons to draw from bad in terms of? Guinness. The next six months. In, the meantime, the Federal Reserve has pin interest rates near zero. But I want to chat something fun. Now, forward, guidance right and I know that you can only speak for yourself. But what's your preferred method of messaging to the market? How long you will keep rates at zero bound especially now that there's been this discussion as the minutes of noted of federal. Reserve officials be playing around with the idea of an objective base or guidance that perhaps might be pinned to inflation, for example. Well as you know over the recovery period and the expansion following the global financial crisis, we did use for guidance pretty aggressively and I think very successfully starting in two thousand eleven. We did try different versions of. What we call, you know database versus you know contingent. Guidance and I think what the lessons from that is, you know win market expectations for the public understanding of what the Fed's likely to do gets out of sync with our own thinking for guidance has has proven to be helpful to help people understand how reviewing Monte policy. You know right now I actually think that are are the guidance we have in there, which is maybe more kind of descriptive informal or guidance his serving as well. So we do have some time to think about how we should. Should evolve that guidance is going as we go forward to me. The critical thing is, what's the problem we're trying to solve right now, we're still trying to fit you know all of us were trying to figure out where is the economy going today? Where is it likely to go in and learn from the experience of you over the next few months, and from that position, we can really I think considering and decide what's the best way to describe our thinking around the future path of a Monte policy. And, link that obviously. To our. Objectives of cheating the maximum employment and price stability goals. Now on inflation something. That's interesting that we're hearing from other Fed officials is where do you shoot the target as we know is two percent for the reserve. But what we've seen over the past recovery since is that that has been undershot on, which is hard to kind of stimulate inflation. How does that guide your thinking for
Volcanoes of Life
"Hey welcome to stuff to blow your mind. My name is Robert Lamb, and I'm Joe McCormack in today, we're going to be talking about something that I've been thinking about doing an episode on for a while ever since I read an article while back that really interested me, and that is the surprising and kind of counterintuitive link that has been proposed by many geologists now between life as we know it. It on earth and the fires of Mount Doom, specifically, the the most violent and scary of geologic processes like volcanic eruptions on the movement of tectonic plates. Yeah. This is a great topic to get into. We kind of had a I guess a preamble to this a couple of episodes ago when we were talking about eggs and we talked about the volcano birds and the idea of a volcano being seeming. Almost. Paradoxically to be something that can nourish. As opposed to something. That's just a purely destructive force. Oh, I. didn't think about that comparison at all. But yeah, the the way that the volcanic sand babysits the egg for for the megapode so that it can just run off and do its own thing. Yeah. Raised by a volcano. But so I thought a great place to start here might be with a brief reading from volusia. It is a famous old norse epic poem from the collection that is known as the Poetic Edda. Now, this is a synonymous work. The author is unknown, but the volusia tells the story of the norse Gods culminating in their destruction in the fiery doom of Ragnarok can I'm just GonNa read a couple of Quad trains here. In Anger Smites, the water of the earth forth from their homes must all men flee nine paces fares the son of Jurgen and slain by the serpent fearless. He sinks the Sun. Turns Black Earth sinks in the see the hot stores down from heaven or world fierce gross. The steam and the life feeding flame till fire leaps high about heaven, itself Nice and one fun thing about this poem. It's bit of Tolkien Trivia Robert Tell me if you've heard this before, but the name of the wizard Gandalf that first appeared in Tolkien's. Tolkien's the Hobbit and then of course, the best character in Lord of the Rings, the name of Gandalf comes from the Veloce token, actually borrowed the name from a section known as the tally of the dwarves from this epic poem. Originally, he was going to apply it to the character in the Hobbit, who became thorn oaken shield the leader of the Dwarf Party. But then he decided later on that, it made more sense to apply the name of Gandalf. The wizard. I think because again, Dal means something like magic staff l.. and. I think he made the right choice like, Gandalf. That makes more sense for the wizard than for Thorin. Think. So but cool thing that happens in this poem sort of part of the RAGNAROK. Myth is that there is a rebirth that follows this fiery doom know after the fire leaps high heaven and the Kingdom of the Gods is destroyed. Earth is not just left in cinders instead, there is a renewal from the fire and the author writes now do I see the earth new Rizal Green from the waves again, the cataracts fall and the Eagle flies and And Fish, he catches beneath the cliffs. So there's this great link between Fiery Cataclysm and rebirth and renewal of life in norse mythology, and and of course, you know these are symbolic elements. I'm not suggesting that they had some kind of scientific insight with this is something that I think is taken as a metaphor largely about human life itself, but coincidentally, it ends up kind of ringing true with things. We're finding out about geology and nature. Well, it's something you see in a lot of different mythological cycles, right I. mean you see it in Hindu mythology? In. Various. American mythologies. Thinking about. Meslin. South America in particular society that things will rise things will fall that there will be cataclysm that whole world will be destroyed, but new worlds will rise out of them and have risen out of them before. Yeah. I was thinking about themes of fiery eruption in the greening of the earth together or sort of a creator destroyer duality. One that came to my mind that that I thought, you might know something about because I know I've heard you talk about Hawaiian mythology before was the Palay myth. Yeah. Yeah. The Hawaiian got his Palay is an interesting example, a deity of fire and Volkan Ism I was reading a book titled Pay Volcano Goddess. Goddess of Hawaii by H are low nemo, and he points out that when Polynesian voyagers I arrived in Hawaii, they brought their gods with
Trump: Melania vs Nancy - BOL Making Podcasts Great Again
"At stuff, okay, because the Marlins Bailey a baseball team. They're sort of a disgrace I think that where we're going with baseball is we're GONNA, have to fight through it. We're GONNA have to you know once again. Freedom isn't free. And You know if. If. Some players after gets sick for our freedoms. I think it's OK. Still big freedom fiend tonight. If everything is for freedom, so anything can happen as. It I. Think I'm saying that because before I got on the podcast, Big Gay Mike. Pence was dancing to George Michael's freedom like yet it on repeat okay and I think it got stuck in my head. Mr President Baseball is back right now I. Don't know how long it's going to be back four and that of course brings us to our sponsor this week. Which is Ben Online dot ag bet online dot AJ. They have they are are a ride or die. sponsor. They are and sports, her back and basketball's comeback. We have baseball back. Hockey's coming back so it's your chance to bet on all these sports with your exclusive wagering partner Ben, Online, Dot AG majorly. League, Baseball's here and everything is going to be in full swing soon, so there's no shortage of ways to get in on the Action Ben. Online has all the. The odds futures and props feed a ban on and as sports returns bet online had some extras. Then align sat down with Eddie George from the NFL Robert Horry. Seven time MBA champ and Harold Reynolds from Major League Baseball to get their opinions on what it'd be like playing without fans. They're no fans in any of these games and they're calling this thing. Now. Check that out. You can hear these players give you know their two cents on how they feel about everything that's going on so the Fan Democ and visit Ben Online Dot H. G. Today to check out all the odds and up-to-date sports news. Don't forget to sign up and take advantage of all the welcome back to sports bonuses also, there is table games poker. BLACKJACK? Bent Online Day. AG has everything so. Ben Online your online wagering parts. Mr. President as we continue to talk about sports. You canceled You're throwing out the pitch at Yankee Stadium. You cancelled that day. Can you tell us why exactly you cancelled it? was canceled because we scheduled some very strong meetings on Covid for that day and obviously. That is more important than
"fed" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"The Federal Reserve's policy meetings are a barometer on the state of the economy at virtual press conference this afternoon Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said he's not expecting to move the needle on near zero interest rates for at least a year, and a half the extent of the downturn, and the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus. We all want to get back to normal, but a full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to re engage in a broad range of activities. Joining me now with more analysis is Wall Street Journal chief. Economics commentator Greg Hip. Greg. It was expected that the would keep rates steady and fed chair. Jerome Powell said as much that the Fed will not increase rates through the year twenty twenty two. Is that longer than we had expected? I think that's about as what was expected. Mean it's more or less than markets had not expected any rate increase for the next year or two, perhaps even more important was that the Fed chairman said they're going to be continuing to buy treasury bonds at a pace of about twenty billion dollars a week for the foreseeable future they had not actually given much guidance in before about when that would stop so by continuing to buy treasury bonds, they keep long term interest rates low that helps keep things like mortgage rates low, and as additional support to the economy and observers were keeping a eye on the Fed's projections for the rest of the year. Greg, what are the major takeaways there? Well, the feds forecast is very similar to many private sector forecasts are expecting the economy to shrink six and a half percent this year, and only partially rebound next year to five percent, and you see the same thing in their unemployment rate projections, the unemployment rate falling from over thirteen percent now to nine point three percent at the end of this year and six point five percent at the end. End of next year now on the one hand that's positive because we're making progress, but I think it still represents a pretty significant reversal. Disappointment compared. We were just a few months ago when the unemployment rate was the lowest since nineteen sixties at around three and a half percent Powell has repeatedly said the Fed will use every tool at its disposal to help the recovery how those tools been working? While lowering interest rates, zero had the desired effect of bringing down other interest rates such as on mortgage rates, their purchases of bonds of help, calm markets down. You don't see the same degree volatility, and then there are other plans to perhaps by corporate bonds and other securities and lend to private companies, those having progress nearly as far in fact, some of the programs, even off the ground yet, but the mere fact. Fact that investors know those programs are available seems to have imparted certain degree of stability, but chair Powell is clear today that a lot of the work that needs to be done and getting the economy fully back on its feet is in the domain of Congress in the in in the White House Greg. The challenges ahead are many and I. Think Average Americans are wondering just how long the recovery will take. Well it probably depends on how you define recovery, if defend recovery as simply getting better well, things are already getting better if you define recovery as unemployment getting back to where it was same February, that could several years more. I think one of the key takeaways of chair Powell's remarks today was that we're in a period of enormous uncertainty. Nobody expected the employment report for May to show an increase in jobs, so that means that we should be prepared for surprises both active and positive surprises in the months ahead, and not be have our minds to made up about just how strong and weak recovery will be. That's wall journal Chief Economics Commentator Greg Greg.
"fed" Discussed on Part of the Problem
"What's the benefit of the system if this is all the cost while the benefit of the system is that they can enrich themselves at your expense so when you create new money as you pointed out before you're not gonNA see a rise in prices immediately because like people don't even know the money's been created the store owner doesn't even know that it's not like the Federal Reserve prints money in the store. Owner is watching the Fed balance sheet and then goes okay better raise prices. It takes a period of time before the money gets into the economy and start circulating around and then the it's realized the money is less valuable and prices go up but whoever gets the money I gets to buy at the current prices and then they get the value of it going up and who gets the money I in the system. Wouldn't you believe it's the big banks. The same ones who wrote the legislation of the Federal Reserve Act the same ones who financed the worst president of the twentieth century. Woodrow Wilson and got him in office. So He'd sign the Federal Reserve. Act those same mother. Fuckers are the ones who get the money I so they get money for free that they can then loan out for interest they get it before the inflation's hit and they're ripping you off. This is now just already in this Kobe. Shit the Federal Reserve has extended trillions and trillions of dollars. Okay it's hard for human beings to wrap their heads around how much money that really is. But it's more you think of the biggest business you've ever thought of. It's way more than that way more. And they're taking it from you. It's the money isn't magical printing. More money doesn't add any more wealth into people's lives it just devalue the currency. That's out there. It's the same thing in effect as stealing your money. It just makes your money less valuable. If your money loses half its value or half your money as stolen the same fucking fit and this is how they get away with that and so when you look around and you see how the ruling class of this country just gets richer and richer and richer and believe me. They've gotten richer through this whole crisis. This is at the heart of it. It's the fucking Federal Reserve. So this is something that needs to be inserted back into the conversation in these crazy times that we live in. This is what's going on when America was at. Its IT'S A in its darkest hour the Federal Reserve came in and stole trillions of dollars of your wealth. That's the reality of the situation. This is a criminal organization. It's there's no constitutional authority for it. It's on it's the greatest scheme in the history of world of the world. It destroys the economy. It's taken away. We should be At at such a higher standard of living than we are if we didn't have this monstrosity of running the department of money and it should be ended or at the very least is Ron. Paul was pushing for. It should be audited. There should be a new movement coming out to audit the Federal Reserve to find out. What the fuck. They're really doing because guess what none of us know. None of us even have a right to see their balance sheet at least and other government departments. You can have these you know freedom of Information Act Request. Sir You can get some of these things released like we just had the Justice Department released. These like you know Transcripts in the testimony about Michael Flynn and the FBI. Notes was last time you ever saw any of that. Should come out of the Federal Reserve. Never okay so that's where there should be a big push to audit the Fed and the Fed and let the free market take over money the same way. The people look back on the the development of the separation of church and state. And how like how wonderful that was for humanity because it cut down on religious wars and all of this type of blake unnecessary bloodshed. A we need a separation of banking and the state and we might need more than we needed the separation of church and state but once and for all a separation of banking and the state let let the free market do its job and until then we really don't have a free market if the government's controlling fifty percent of every transaction that's that's a lot closer to communism than it is to capitalism. If you ask me all right at something yeah let me get a plug in here if you guys are interested in the stuff thirty minutes and on my last run your mouth. I talk about how they're using special purpose vehicles which is illegal to give all this money over to black rock and basically bail out the junk bonds stuff. You're curious no they've taken the scheme one step even further than their charter and go check. Run your math that start that that piece is like a half hour all right absolutely and just in general go check out. Run your mouth hilarious. Villian FORMATIVE PODCAST and go support. Rob The fire he needs. He needs more firewood for that. Beautiful fire a behind him. All right. So that's our back to basics episode on the Federal Reserve. Hope you guys enjoyed it. And I'll see you soon on the next episode piece..
"fed" Discussed on Part of the Problem
"How are you? How's everything going by rub any more? Whatever I'm just I know I gotta figure out a new life plan myself. My my apartment's opened July. I gotta figure out what else. Yeah for quite a while. Yes three years. But whatever man if he can't do standup there's no reason to be in the city and I I knew a whole new plan here but you know I'm a mother. Plans in life gone amazing. Some really good at the plant is there's a lot of a lot of comedians are in a similar situation And we we talked about this on skanks like a few a few weeks ago episode and Bobby Kelly was on. We are saying it's like there's kind of this thing. Where for Comedians? Like who get a little bit older and have a family and stuff like that that that makes it a real big difference but there is this thing in general where you're Kinda like okay. There's all all the comedy clubs are in New York. And so you gotta be New York to be where the action is you know and after a while when you're in the situation I'm in this situation your in as well when you've kind of done a lot of podcasting and you've built up a fan base and really now you can kind of go on the road and fans will come out and see you already. It's less importance to be connected to the clubs. You know it's like it's less important to go run a ten minute set at the clubs when you're going out and doing a half hour or an hour in front of your fans and now where there's this situation where I mean a lot of a comedy clubs in New York City. Were barely getting by I. I don't know how many of them are going to reopen at all on top of that when his New York City going to be fully opened. A Comedy Club is an environment where you're really right on top of each other. I. I don't know that anytime soon. They're going to be allowing on hundred percent capacity in there and then once you take that element out of it. You're like oh so unjust staying here to be in a tiny apartment instead of having a big Nice space and then you know you can find them like an hour outside of the city or something like that where what like what. I did where you can get in really easily. So it's just I think a lot of people are kind of requesting what the plan is. I think you're not alone there. Yeah Me Knicker GonNa have to figure something out like partner Nick of three years there. You go okay so four. Today's episode I wanted to do something a little bit different. And it's something I was thinking about doing During the course of this wonderful lockdowns or thought we might start like a serious That I was GONNA call back to basics and go over some libertarian basics that I think are important because you know as as I've said before don't mean repeat myself too much but we're clearly moving into a different era a different time now In terms of you know everything but really particularly in terms of the size and scope of Government Liberty Verse State Ism which has always been the most important dynamic but now it's really even even more so than before it might have turned up their timetable of people willing to accept universal basic and electronic more. Like location monitoring by about a decade projecting. When you thought those things might come do I wanna say maybe like a decade? But now they're here. Yes that's right and On on every level in terms of I mean civil liberties the idea of civil civil liberties are basically suspended right now. The idea of even a pretense of caring about deficits and the size of government is completely gone. I mean you know. Every president so far has Railed against the spending of the previous administration like trump railed against Obama driving up the debt and Obama railed against George W Bush driving up the debt. Right and what we've seen in the last. Three months is is more deficit spending. Ben I mean probably ever in a couple years so there you know that. That's another as a awesome honest having such a fun Field Day. It like okay. If you take the worst case scenario that this thing's one hundred percent true then you have okay. So the worst economic disaster of all American history happened. There's a freak episode of some unknown novel. Virus never existed in the economy needs to be shut down. Because there's nothing that we could possibly do about if you take the liberal agenda of what Kogo Nineteen is. An OBAMA GETS OUT THERE. And does this whole thing is trump's fault and it's because of his lack of preparation. It's such a fun game that these guys get to play that if you know if you can spend the debt and enjoy the money while they're in office you look great and if the House of cards Krummel's while you're in there because it's your fault but look no matter what. The situation is whether the whether every claim every every one of the worst claims about cove nineteen is true and this was the best thing to do. And maybe we didn't even do enough or if it's bullshit You know what I mean. Or if it's a very what I kind of thing which is a very real nasty virus but these actions were not the appropriate way to deal with them and and caused much more long lasting devastation than the virus Was going to if that's the case or any of those things with the case. The reality is that we are quickly approaching. Forty million people just a filing for unemployment benefits for which a road towards jobs cases. Most people don't even want to go back to work. They're cleaning up on employed. Yeah that's that's a fair point to which actually kind of pulls in the other direction that the numbers in that sense might be a little bit inflated that they've pulled a lot of people into Wyoming to be laid off and a lot of people have been requesting from their employers that they may be laid off in younger stand. What I mean. Sure it's who would want to work for money when you can make just as much or more money in some cases from not working particularly if there's a virus out there that you're afraid of I'd rather stay home and collect the money and spend time with family by the way that's such the dummies game. Because now you're really putting your You're really putting your cards into the hands of the government that they're going to continue to give you a paycheck totally walking away from personal respond like for you. I'm not talking about like you might get some money now. You're better off doing your dumb factory job unless you're GonNa stay home and study something. Yeah no that's that's the case and I'm sure that the sitting home in studying something is not the case for the vast majority of people and no. You're absolutely right but it does seem to be an again. A lot of different things can be true at once but it does seem like the a lot of the politicians are quite happy to put. Just put everybody on Welfare essentially and it's a it's a scary. Thanks but one way or the other. The government kicked tens of millions of people out of their jobs. That's a reality of what's happening whether you think it was the right thing to do or not. That is happening right now. But the thing the topic I wanted to and for these back to basic episodes. Maybe I'll talk guys gas digital. Maybe we'll just leave these up and not put them behind the pay welcomes people. Ask me a lot of times for things to like. Oh you have a great like intro to libertarianism tight. You know episode where we can share around people who aren't Libertarians and convert them and a lot of times. I'm kind of in this situation. Where you kind of when you do a show like this. You have a lot of people who have been listening for almost decade. Then you have other people have been listening for a few years then you have someone else. Who's checking out for the first time ever so. I CAN'T EVERY EPISODE. Be throwing you into this shit because then it's like the people who have been here all along or they're already on level twenty. They're not trying to go back to Level One But for this time period right our premise as basically a been that we really need and have the potential for a new liberty moments. And it's never been more important and I think that a lot of times over the The last few years the the a lot of the talk of of the the Ron Paul days the liberty movement days hasn't been quite as sexy as some other topics if you're watching like a brawl between Antifa and alt-right or something like that you know it's like that's just all these cultural issues that are people are going to war over and a lot of them really important. I've spent a lot of time with west years talking about them. I I'm not trying to downplay the significance but they really sucked all the air out of the room for the issues that us in the Liberty Movement really wanted to put forward. Like if you're talking about I don't know like white privilege and transgender bathrooms and whatever ethnos states any of this. Other kind of just distractions silly issues. It gets a lot more clicks in a lot more attention than someone talking about central banking or the deficit. That stuff comes off as almost a little bit boring in comparison and I understand I understand what but now things are getting serious and is a whole lot of the ship that the people in the Liberty Movement have been talking about for years. This is all about government overreach and and you know so I just think this stuff is is important now and so. It's not a bad idea for us to kind of go over some things that we think need to be inserted back into the conversation and even for people who are on level twenty. Who have been here with US forever. It's not worst thing in the world to get a little refresher and to kind of all. Go over this shit together so thing. I want to talk about on this. Episode is the Federal Reserve. This is GONNA be Like a basic a back to basics why we oppose the Federal Reserve and want to see it abolished And and how much damage it's caused and the Fed I think is of all of the the the big issues from the Liberty Movement and this is this is what Ron Paul gets. All the credit in the world. Scratcher chain right Baron Paul. You've earned that there you go. He was the only guy who really like defied the odds to insert the Federal Reserve into the popular conversation. At least to some degree. I mean he had he was drawn. Tens of thousands of of people whose rallies and they were screaming and the Fed with passion and enthusiasm. That is pretty crazy that he was able to accomplish that. I I know people. I think it was both Bob Murphy and Tom Woods When Ron Paul was running were advising that he not talk about the Fed is Ron Paul. Wouldn't shut up about the Fed and they were just kind of like look. I'm with you completely but no one's GonNa care about this like you know you're not gonNA reach young people talking about the Federal Reserve talking about the war on drugs talk about Blah Blah Blah the war in Iraq all this other stuff s few care about and they were both like. Wow we were so wrong. And they were delighted to be wrong or they were like he actually got people really excited about this shit all right. Let's take a quick second. I WanNa thank our sponsor for today's show which is.
"fed" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Actions has helped markets and in their view. They look at The fixed income markets to corporate bond market is opened. It's a lot a lot of companies to get financing. It's allowed a lot of companies to stay business. It's loud a lot of people to see their losses get reduced and that the Fed is looking at that as being a a positive. What Buffett said is it is now but the very big risk is that as we move forward that distortion in markets that they're creating and they think it's a distortion for the good could wind up being a real problem down the road and he said I think the word used was an extreme problem down the road but then he also said doing nothing and just allowing you know this Market to sort itself out with any support could have meant that that extreme outcome happened now as opposed to later on so his suggestion was which is why. I'm bringing it up because I'm in that same camp. Is that while the Fed has made things better now. It's still a very open question as if they've made things better for good and if there are problems a year or two now because of distorted markets or Mel investment meaning bad investment because the Fed told everybody. Hey it's all okay go ahead plow your money into the market and then some investments go bad because we realized that we were buying them at the wrong price or at too high a value. And then you would say you're too from now yeah They've really created problems for the economy. That very well may be true if they had done nothing. Those problems would have been occurring now so I think what he's suggesting is what they might be. Doing is just shifting the timelines as opposed to repairing the economy to the extent that they think they are. I I WOULD. I would phrase it slightly differently. This is a hair the dog that bit you. You wake up with a hangover. You do a quick shot. The hanger goes away at least temporarily. We're still dealing with the hangover from OEM and Lo and behold hair. The dog is GonNa kick the can down the road a little bit mixed metaphors is. Is that what I'm hearing? You say to some degree here. Yes I think so. I think that they they have been able to you. Know to use kick the can down the road right since we're system metaphor segment. There's no easy in a foxhole. They're still cows crisis. We had to do something if we didn't do something that worst decline that we ever saw down thirty four percent in five weeks might have gotten even further worse the bad English there but in that would have created more and more problems but by kicking the can.
"fed" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz
"As well as at Bloomberg Dot com time for Bloomberg opinion right now we turn to Bloomberg Opinion Columnist Narayana Coach Lakota former Minneapolis Fed president also professor of economics at the University of Rochester Nariaki. Thanks so much for joining us here. Boys we think about the response to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve Bank I think is generally getting very good marks from the marketplace in terms of acting early acting acting decisively. But you make the argument. That defense should really consider going negative in terms of interest rates. Get your thoughts there. Yeah thanks a lot for having me on You know I think. The chairman laid out the case pretty well in his press conference. He certainly didn't go make the next step of actually going negative with rates. Which is he said. The Fed has to be prepared to use all its tools to support the the economy and the recovery that We hope we'll be coming soon. And that that That means include to me means including going negative with rates Pushing rates down further would stimulate spending And stimulate on the part of household stimulate investment on the part of businesses as it always does and that would be helpful for the economy. What is your view? I mean I guess you know. People look at say Japan. Germany developed countries with negative rates. Just doesn't seem right. It doesn't seem like the right strategy the policy. How do you view this negative and insurance in general I you know I think what's what's happened? Is that Economies turned to them as would be true in the. Us case when the situation is bad. So you can't just look at raw correlation between WHO's using negative rates in their what their situations like and say gee it looks like all the the countries that have negative rates have poor are are not doing that well because they view them as emergency tool they only turn to when when the situation is going badly The other problem is there. There's a limit to how negative to being able to go are willing to go. And in some instances and a quarter percentage point fifty basis point cut in interest rates. It's helpful it's supportive but it's absolutely not a panacea for all possible. Economic ills ever done training appreciable amount of time as a policy matter before You know now you're taking a little bit out of my knowledge base but my understanding is rate did go negative for some time in the during the Great Depression but But other than that. No right it's not something typically in the toolbox for Fed so one of the things when we think about the actions by the Fed. Is that the concern or the the expectation the assumption is that this pandemic has relatively short life measured in quarters. How about if you know if it's just one in a series of waves of this virus and actually goes much longer? What does the Fed do then? I think that's a great question. I think the Fed and Congress You know I think it's an and treasury I think there's there's basically been been all these entities and the government have been working together. I the the perspective is by the time we get into this to the certainly begin to the fourth quarter of the year The economy is going to be in a very robust recovery path and The the the they won't need the further for the backstopping from from the Fed at that point and I think that's led to the Fed and other entities to say boy. The main job here is to keep businesses alive. Try to freeze the economy where it was in February of twenty twenty. Well that might be acceptable if you're talking about a three or four months intervention but if you're talking to three ten years I mean ten is obviously quite extreme but two three years. Even you're really getting in the way of the dynamic flow and processes it really drive the US economy where we want copies? Go Out of business. Because they're not as being as effective at fulfilling what consumers want and we won't workers to be able to move from job to job Because they're not there'd be more productive that new job than they were at the old one so I worry that These these interventions are really designed to be temporary as a shock. That comes more persistent. They're gonNA introduce more more distortions in the economy leading to to towards more outcomes so just real quick twenty twenty seconds. What do you think about the Fed's decision to kind of go into the corporate bond market? Yeah I think it's I I think that the so it's a questionable one because I think the fact that basically I think companies should be facing a lot of risk right. Now it's appropriate for them to be borrowing at high interest rates because it's a very risky world. I think the Fed's intervention is getting in the way of that signal. The market interesting enough to see how that plays out in the coming weeks and months and Arianna coach Lakota former minneapolis fed president and Bloomberg Opinion Columnists also professor of economics at the University of Rochester. We appreciate you coming on. You can read all of Narayan. His work at Bloomberg Dot com slash opinion. And OPIE. I N go. That's where you can find all of the Bloomberg opinion work which is so good and we love having the folks on here talking about what is going on in the markets in a broader implications.
"fed" Discussed on MarketFoolery
"Let's dip into the full mailbag and I'm just going to read this. Hi Chris Okay. Sorry I'm not Chris but I'm channeling Chris here hi Chris. Big Fan from the highlands of Scotland. Hope you guys are holding up well over in Virginia. My question regarding the current situation is water federal banks cutting rates. I understand that you would cut rates in periods of economic instability to improve consumer mood and stimulate the economy. But surely in a situation such as this. This is akin to rubbing ointment on a broken leg. Is it a case that banks need to be seen to be doing something rather than nothing all all the best and wash those Damn Hands Robbie okay? Thanks Robbie Jason. What do you think Ravi? Channeling is dating Garter Gardner there right lost your damn hands. I love it. I I mean it's a good question I think on its surface. He is correct. I mean if the if the only solution to this if we just saw the focus remaining on on cutting rates as far as rates could be cut. I mean clearly we we seen through this. The market doesn't really necessarily care so much about rate cuts are looking for rate cuts. It's looking for reassurance and solutions now rate cuts are one part of that overall toolbox right. I think that what we're looking at. We're looking at our our policy makers to utilize every potential tool. They had every possible till they add in interest. Rates are one of those tools. I heard a fed banker earlier this morning using is an interview on CNBC and and he was using the analogy of a car approaching a steep hill. And you can either step on the gas early to try to navigate that hill or you can step on the gas late to navigate that hell but one way or the other. If you're going to get over that Hill you've got step on the gas. And so they've view the rate policy the politics of an active as being away. Step Lagasse early in utilize one of the tools that they have in order to try to keep this thing moving so we can get over this hill but you know. We brought up the mention of commercial paper earlier in the show. Commercial Papers. Another tool bank liquidity. Now there's talk of easing banks liquidity requirements so they can actually make more loans and help more businesses deal with times like these along with economic aid. The White House is looking for eight hundred fifty bucks a billion dollars in aid here now. I mean politics of course is GonNa get in the way of this. You get one side saying that. Come in the form of of this in the other side saying come in the form of that but but ultimately I have to believe that they'll don't even come up with solution there so it is. I think a matter of looking at it as one tool in the toolbox and policy makers are really trying to Exercise All these tools that they can in. I think that they are trying to act a little bit more in haste as opposed to just letting things play out in being too late a to actually help get things fixed. Now I will say I do appreciate that haste because as much as I feel like we as a society wants to come together and and deal with this and get past not working on limited time here I mean you cannot just tell everybody to go hunker down to their house and just wait for us to tell you to come out. It sounds good in theory. But there's no way it's going to work in practice. People have lives to live. They have businesses to run. They have families to take care of things to do. And so regardless of where this cove nineteen is. There's going to be a point in time where people are going to start listening to themselves more than they start listening to others and I think it's more about trying to figure out. How do we manage our lives? How we live in a world going forward where ovid exists. How can we deal with it? Nats where it comes to companies like region Ron Johnson Johnson. The work on these treatments vaccines order to help us manage this. So so time is not unlimited here. in so it's nice to see the Fed In our policy makers taking his approach and try and utilize tools that they possibly can okay. Jason Given The Times. It seems a bit strange for my desert island questions. So I'm gonNA modify a bit because we haven't really talked about that many individual stocks and I'm GonNa say over the next five years stocks or no stocks. Oh my word that's just has to be stocks one hundred percent. I mean this is what we're telling people Various data out there that says event driven bear markets. Like what we're in right. Now take on average team fifteen months for us to get back to where we started in so I think you hear that in the initial reaction from folks is okay. Well I'm just GONNA go high in the hills in weight fifteen months till we get back to where we were and then I'll start investing again in that completely misses the point that all of this opportunity in getting back to where we started exists. And you want to take advantage of that opportunity and that opportunity is gonNA come in the form of the stock market and so as difficult as it is Sometimes your emotions can get the best of you. Recognize the opportunity that it is in front of us here because because the stock market as as it always does it does come back when when the improves. I for one subscribe to the notion that things will get better Mac. I don't know about you. I Agree Jason Moser. Thanks for joining me. You market foolery at full dot. Com is our email for your questions for your comments. That's market foolery at full dot com as always people on the show may have interested the stocks they talk and the Motley fool may have formal recommendations for against so don't sell stocks based solely on what you hear. That's it for this edition of the show is mixed by Dan Boyd. I'm Mac rare earth. Thanks for listening. Wash your hands and we will see them on..
"fed" Discussed on FT News
"Percent. They say it's symmetric metric. Which means that over time they should be sometimes above sometimes below? What that's worked out to be in practice? Is that the Fed like every other central bank in the developed world has had trouble even meeting its target and so there's a separate movement going on within the Fed as part of this policy review. It does look like they're gonNA come out of it with a shift towards what they call. Average inflation flation targeting which means that if they miss their inflation target for two years. They're going to promise to actually exceed their inflation target for the next two years so that over time it averages out to two percent because they've recognized that if you can't generate enough inflation as a central bank then you're missing out on economic growth that you could have had the problem with that is the Federal Reserve has what they call a credibility problem. which is that is not completely certain that they can generate even two percent inflation so already long-term in terms? The Fed is worried about meeting the price. Stability Part of its mandate. That's the bad news for the Fed. The good news is they're not worried about high inflation and the luxury of being a Federal Reserve. Not Worried about high inflation is being a Federal Reserve. They can accomplish things that people politicians like like not raising rates and sort of trying to see how far you can get the unemployment rate down and we've really seen a shift over the last year so within the Fed at the beginning of the year. Sure there was noise that they were worried about the trade war now. The rhetoric has shifted and they're basically saying look. We don't see any inflation. Let's see how low we can drive the unemployment rate. Let's come back to to these regional consultations Brennan because as you suggested that the gap between certainly where the Fed started off in their thinking and views expressed on the ground about monetary policy. Have those views panned out in terms of difference between the visa expressed in the consultations and those are the Fed chief Jay Powell and his team so so one of the things that you've heard in his rhetoric that the feds got this highly ritualized language that it uses to talk to markets and so people who watched the Fed for signals watched the shift in that language for clues on what's coming up and so he has actually started to take the events and referred to them as part of his ritualized language. You know he'll say people in communities that we talked to tell us that they're coming back into the workforce at right they haven't seen before again. I'm paraphrasing using. But it's something along those lines and it's align he repeats again and again and again in public speeches that means that even if they haven't finished their year and a half Long Strategy Review about how the Carry Carrie about monetary policy he's already telling markets. Look I'm going out to underserved areas. I'm going out to poorer areas. I'm hearing something different from them. And this is informing my monetary policy Halsey choices. I think the Fed has a big challenge. which is that? Historically Americans have been hostile to the idea of a central bank because of this hostility the Federal Reserve reserve sort of doesn't even further to itself as the Central Bank though it obviously is and it was constructed along regional lines and so the original construction of it was that they took these twelve cities and built the entire fed system around the existence of these twelve regional banks so now where a lot of the power particularly since the thirties is vested in the board of Governors in Washington. DC The challenges. What's the role of these regional banks? One way in which the regional banks of solve this is is that they're really focused on regional development. What these fed banks are doing? They're using what they call the convening power of the Fed which they've got great researchers and they have in some sort of moral authority people tend to trust the Federal Reserve as an independent arbiter and they bring together state and local governments and community representatives and local banks and they say look here the problems problems that we think we can solve. Here's our research says this is what would solve the problem now. Who's got some money to do this again? The Fed is a weird position because they have all these regional research authorities parties. That have recognized that you can solve unemployment problems in a very local way without national policy. They don't have any authority to change that. And so the very limited way in which the Fed can help is trying to keep the overall unemployment level as low as possible for as long as possible so marginally the Fed can make a difference there. But what's changed. Is the conversations that were happening at the regional fed banks at Boston Philadelphia. San Francisco are now happening with the chair of the vice chair. That's brand new. It doesn't seem that novel but for the Fed it is so it seems like these consultations have exposed a preoccupation with the cost of living and a fear of incurring debt at RAV and perhaps on raising money to expand. Businesses as policymakers might have hoped. Does that mean that. The Fed's traditional focus on cutting interest rates in order to stimulate lending in the economy needs to change. I think that there's A. There's a sort of parallel problem going on. which is that? The Fed is realizing that it's running running out of tools to sort of effect monetary policy. So you know with its policy rate already now in expansion at one and a half two one three quarters percent that's already perilously close to zero. They don't have a lot of room to cut so they've looked at other tools. The Fed for a bunch of reasons not WANNA go below zero. It does not want to repeat the experiment the ECB CB ran. It thinks it might be willing to do a quantitative easing buying up lots of assets and expanded its balance sheet in the next recession so it seems fairly fairly comfortable with that. It seems comfortable with for guidance. Telling people not only that it's lowering rates now but it's GONNA lead them lower for longer in the background and that's something that the Fed will never say but it's something that formal fed reserve shares have actually come together to say is that there's a concern that even those tools might not be enough the next recession and so to get back back to your question. The Fed does not seem to be openly willing to contemplate anything radical like by municipal debt right actually targeting. The kinds of assets at buys is it still is hoping that state local governments and national governments will step in and do this kind of spending one. The time comes. I am skeptical. That that spending bending will come but you know do I think the Fed should change its mission. That's a pretty big. Ask what I'd really love to happen for fiscal authority in the United States to understand that community based policies sort of fixing local transportation education issues is massively important for economic growth. And it's going to require some spending but I'm not gonNA hold my breath on that recognition. Will thanks Brendan and thanks to you for listening. Don't forget if you missed. Our recent episodes finance and climate change Putin's Russian reforms assumes all the multilateral leanings of German Chancellor Angela Merkel you can subscribe and listen on all of the usual pa-past platforms.
"fed" Discussed on FT News
"I'm Patrick Jenkins deputy editor and this is news in focus where we offer our insights into the stories that matter the the US Federal Reserve has begun to consult the public particularly in poorer parts of the country apartment or trade policy as a result policy. Wonks at the Central Bank of begun to reconsider the impact of their decisions on communities far from the centers of power. It with me to discuss. This is our us. Economics editor Brendan Greeley. But first let's listen to an exchange from one of the recent public meetings organized between local community representatives and fed governors even places to lower than rates are going to be even in lower and we're going to have less power over a business cycle even less ability to support maximum stable prices nonetheless. It starts with the thought that we have to get inflation back up to two percent we wanted to be medically around two percent. Do you think we'll have a hard time explaining that to the general public ideas. He is ahead to do that. I think you're going to need another three hours. said in the long term it will have an impact higher inflation. I think we agree but for many of our communities distance to the long term. We don't we just don't survive that. That's that's part of the problem. The business close is is people. Don't get to make the choice safer higher education Families just can't find the milk today. I think that's the challenge so Brendan we just heard an exchange there between Denise Scott who runs one of the nonprofits involved in the consultation process and Jay Powell is typical of the kind of views. Put the Fed chair during his consultations. It is that conversation really stood out to me. I was in the room when it happened. And it got a big laugh and basically what's going on is that the Federal Reserve has a problem. which is that? It's running out of tools to actually accomplish monetary policy generally. There's what's called the natural rate of interest. It's impossible to measure. We have to sort of estimate what it is. But it's this idea of what interest rates would be without any intervention from the central bank so the Fed and other central banks are watching this very carefully because their whole existence. All of their tools rely on the ability to undercut this rate to drag it down if that rate and inflation are very close to zero. They don't have any tools so they're really worried about the possibility of low inflation. That's something that central bankers talk about all all the time. That's what they're worried about now. Normal people who live and work out in the real economy. Don't think this way at all and so. The Fed is starting to realize in particular through having these public consultations that the thing that it is obsessed with which is a lack of inflation is something that is completely legally alien to every normal person and what people actually out in the real economy are looking at and thinking about and worrying about is the fact that at least in the US the cost of rent. The cost of healthcare. The cost of education are skyrocketing. That's the inflation they think about but the idea that the Federal Reserve would want to create inflation and doesn't make any sense to them at all. So there's this massive disconnected. The Fed has in the thing is trying to communicate. Doesn't make any sense to any normal person but clearly makes sense that they've come to this realization that they need to conduct this outreach effort but what particularly prompted it and I was organized. Well it's almost a bit of an accident accident. That turned out really well. which is that the Fed about a year and a half ago decided that it was going to really look into its tools and and those tools are both how it conducts monetary policy? And then how it communicates. How talks about monetary policy to markets and the public to make sure the monetary policy works and so Jay Powell is an an interesting chair? He's a different kind of communicator. And his press conferences and he's gotten heat from this from people who were involved in financial markets. His press conferences are much more. Colloquial than press conferences references have been in the past from Fed chairs the challenging part of that is if you are colloquial and plainspoken in monetary policy. You leave open the possibility of misinterpretation and by markets. The good part of that is if you are colloquial in effect presser. Normal people might actually be able to understand you a little better so he's already a different kind of fed chair as part of this review. He decided that he wanted to conduct. What the Fed has called Fed listens events where he's going to go out into the community Mary and talk to real people in real places about monetary policy you know? Journalists were all inherently cynical about everything and I was cynical about this when they announced it seems like a one time. Pr Effort. But when I went to these events and sort of watched him and watch the other governors in particular. Jay Powell seemed to be really interested. He was writing notes and paying attention and actively engaging with people and talking to them he actually seemed like he was enjoying it. And that's what caught. My attention to things have happened. One is they've now had wanted wanted. Every of the twelve federal reserve banks around the country is the cities. All over. You know Saint Louis Chicago San Francisco and internally what we can tell from the Fed minutes and had also some hints externally. It seems like they're going to continue to do this. So this thing. That could have been a one time. Feel good public affairs. Event has turned into away. The Fed actually conducts research. And it's changing the way the macro-economists inside the Fed actually conduct their research. What would you say the main lessons that Mr Powell has learned from this excise of listening to local officials listening to local communities especially in poor areas so one thing that he has said that several of the Fed presidents have said that researchers at the Fed have said is that they learned from these conversations that there's more slack in the economy than they had thought and what that means means is as the economy expands it pushes the unemployment rate farther down slack? Is the remaining number of people who could get a job what they've discovered is they thought that the long-term natural rate of unemployment was five percent four percent that's been dropping when they go to these communities one thing that came out of the event they had in Chicago. Somebody said look in our communities were always in recession. There's never economic growth and so they realized that there a lot of workers on the sidelines. Who you aren't employed? Who could be employed? There's a lot more slack in the labor market than they had thought. These are things that aren't captured in aggregate statistics of overall employment in the country. That are caught when you talk anecdotally to people in certain communities I think that's the number one takeaway and the other one is that people don't care about inflation or rather rather people don't care about low inflation low inflation is a good thing and I think that's a real disconnect and I think the Fed still wrestling with that their response thus far has been. Well how do we teach them that. Low inflation is a bad thing and I think there's another step coming. which is that? Maybe the Fed still needs to learn that it may have to live with low inflation because what people are really worried about is the cost of medical care the cost of housing in the cost of education. Let's take a step back here. You're talking about how the Fed is changing but what is essentially the main task of the federal. What has it been up to now? And how is that different from other central banks around the world. Well what's interesting about. The Fed is that they have a dual mandate most central banks in the developed world their mandate is price stability. They just have to make. I'm sure that inflation is contained right. They've generally adopted a target of two percent inflation. The Fed has an interesting mandate it also has a slightly different history than other central banks it also has the mandate of full employment and so the Fed has defined its inflation target as maintaining two percent. It hasn't really defined what full employment is so it actually has this obligation under the law that charters it from Congress to pursue price stability and maximum employment. So it's starting to figure route that maybe it needs to focus just as much maximum employment as it has in the past on price stability. Tell us about that gradual shift in how these jewel goals have been sued in recent years. Well there's a separate thing going on at the Fed which is that. They're realizing that they have been unable to meet two percent inflation. Their target is two.
"fed" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In Los Angeles. I'm Kai Ryssdal. It is Monday today. The sixth of January. Good as always to have you along everybody. There are military and national security challenges aplenty in the current state of affairs between the United States and Iran all or most of which are are being covered elsewhere there is though a historical and economic context. That's important here a context that may well shape. How at least some of what's happening turns out sanctions of course and the threat of more of them? Hussein scarring is an emeritus professor of business and International Studies at George Washington University. Welcome to the program. Thank you you for having me By Way of background into Fr- refresh right he's probably worth pointing out here That sanctions have been imposed on Iran by virtually every president since Jimmy Carter right that is correct. Okay now do they work. Have we gotten what we want out of those sanctions. Well there were times that Sir we kind of got what we wanted but really sanctions. Do not work immediately. They take time because you're trying to cause enough pain on the the country to change his policies and we kind of got there in two thousand and fifteen. We signed an agreement with them. But but that's about got it right. That is the nuclear deal. Of course the president trump has pulled us out of. Let me ask you then the pain that's being inflicted. What does that look like in the Iranian economy today? Well the things that you notice is that Iran of course there's been very little external or foreign investment in Iran economic growth has been quite bad in Iran largely because the sanctions but also because of terrible economic policies but also because of the Iran Iraq war which devastated the country in between one thousand nine hundred and nine thousand nine hundred eighty eight so you have had slow economic growth the price of imports of Ghana and they have not been able to get get the things that they want and the quality of life has really gone down you are. You're born there right yes. I was born in Iran. I left when I was nine years old. I I imagine though you still have friends friends possibly family when you talk to them What's it like well? They are of experiencing hardship. I I mean I remember vividly in the case of a person who was willing to go to jail. He in fact went on a robbed a grocery store a bottle of milk and went to jail because he needed milk for his children Henrik and so things are bad and I think that the they used to blame a lot of this on the regime but I think that in in the last few weeks especially over the last weekend a lot of the blade is being put on the United States. It's worth mention here just On the way out that it's not just. The united estates has sanctions on Iran. Right now there are European Union sanctions also United Nations sanctions. Yes but I think the kinds of sanctions that the United States has which basically financial sanctions and what they do is the following. They tell every country if you're institutions your banks have business dealings with Iran Ron then you will not have access to the US market and so the companies are afraid that if they do anything with Iran then the United States will sanction there. Talk to me for a second about oil would you. Because that of course is their primary source of foreign reserves and they're exporting almost nothing now right that is exactly correct. Iran basically it's exports exports. I would say by far the most important oil. Then there's natural gas and petrochemicals and basically all of your exports have gone down to almost zero and the only export outlets for Iran's export is basically to Iraq and to Syria. Okay so crystal ball this for me and this really will be the last question. A If somehow there is a climbdown from the current tensions and some mutual agreements are reached about the future course of events. How how long does it take the Iranian economy to to get back to something near normal? Well I think it all depends what you mean by near normal I think near normal normal for me. It's a country that is run. Well that the decent policies a lot of interaction with the rest of the world. I think that will probably take take two three years. But Iran Yin's to feel the beneficial effects. I would say within six months interesting. How cintos Cari is the emeritus Iran professor of business and International Studies at the George Washington University In Washington DC professor. Thanks for your time Sir. I appreciate it. Thank you for having Me Wall Street Street on this Monday traders choosing to see the calm and not the storm the major indices up oil down gold. The historically safest of havens was up just is to bid. We'll have the details when we do the numbers it's entirely possible. You missed it over the weekend given all the other stuff but Ben Banenky. He ran the Federal Reserve Coupla a couple of years ago he had some interesting things to say at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in a speech entitled The new tools of Monetary Policy Burki said and this is a quote. The Fed should also consider maintaining constructive ambiguity about the future use of negative short term rates now first of all constructive ambiguity. How much do you love that? Very Greenspan Ian if you ask me but also negative interest rates. That's a big deal coming from a very important Horton to communist the whole idea of negative rates. Were depositors have to pay the bank to store their money. Forum is to make saving so financially unattractive that it's better to spend spend the money invested in other words it's unorthodox though yes happening elsewhere in the global economy but as marketplace's got song reports from Washington the Fed might well l. need get creative the next time the economy goes south the fence main way to juice a slowing economy is to cut interest rates so banks lend more and businesses and people borrow more but a decade ago in the great recession interest rates. Were near zero. So the Fed got creative and bought bonds to lower long-term rates still dartmouth economist Andrew. Eleven with working for Fed Chair Bernike at the time says that wasn't creative enough. The toolbox really wasn't adequate in two thousand ten and two thousand twelve. We just didn't know that at the time. But in in retrospect I think it's pretty clear now banenky wants to add a controversial new tool to the box negative interest rates for banks that would discourage them from stashing shing their cash in the Central Bank and nudge them to lend even though the economy is still growing Levin says it's good to have more options for when things stall again the level of interest rates. It's around one and a half percent which means there's really not much room to cut much less room than there was ten or fifteen years ago to offset Saturday recession or some other kind of sock. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell has not endorsed pushing the so called the Federal Funds Rate Below Zero but Burnett. He's trying to change his mind. As is Princeton's Alan blinder. A former fed vice chair. The Fed has ruled out several times. And pretty emphatically going negative live on the Federal Funds Rate Bernanke. Who was advocating? And I certainly agree that. They shouldn't rule out for Nike. Encouraged the Fed to employ quote constructive ambiguity. That is to be unpredictable as to whether and when to make interest rates negative in Washington. I'm Scott Tong for marketplace. The corporate news of this Monday of the Bovine Variety borden dairy the Elsie. The Cow Company is filing for chapter eleven bankruptcy protection. The one hundred sixty three year old firms had its current debt was unsustainable back in November. You might remember Bordon's bigger competitor. Dean foods filed as well and is said to be looking to sell itself to to a dairy co op market place's Kimberly. Adams looks at what's going on or maybe what's going wrong in milk. The milk industry is doing. Okay just not the stuff we drink. According to Peter Vitaliano an economist with the National Milk Producers Federation total use of milk what we call commercial use of milk produced in the United States actually been growing pretty consistently for years. Now it's the fluid part that's declining. People are eating plenty of cheese and yogurt and other milk products but vitaliano says we only drink about twenty percent of the milk produced plus the growth of plant based drinks. You're soy milk. OAT Milk even banana milks are eating away at the market. Share for cow's milk so the consumer changes the demand patterns have changed and Dean Foods and borden are just I in the wrong sector. Merrin Bozic teaches about the economics of the industry at the University of Minnesota. Another problem for milk processors. Is that big chain grocery tree. Stores don't really need them anymore. If for example Walmart who has been buying milk from Dean foods and others up until recently now they make their Camila dental implants all. These problems left an opening for private equity firms to swoop in Borden CEO. Tony Sarsam says some of the strings. Attached to investments didn't really set the company up for success. We found ourselves in a situation where the debt was outside for the size of the business and for the basic needs of the business to actually actually grow and prosper size says with the chapter eleven restructuring board and can work with debtholders to sort out a more fluid arrangement in Washington. I'm Kimberly Kimberly Adams for marketplace..
"fed" Discussed on Freakonomics
"I have a real good line of sight into what the reality of a situation was and I was totally wrong and I had had this hit me right in the face by going to East Palo Alto so East Palo Alto is a place that serious he'd go out now communists what they think about EPA and they'll tell you it's it's it's terrible they listen to the podcast obviously but if you listen to the podcast you find out and that podcast was a real life experience for me. the podcast dailies referring to is her own show zip code economies and a couple recent episodes called resiliency is is a mindset and can you love yourself when the world's against you in this episode of Zip Code Economies. We return to East Palo Alto. We're going to sit down with the the pastor earning a homeless shelter leader principal and our students and meet police chief. They're all going to talk about something that I was surprised about. They're gonNA talk about love. I have to say I'm a little skeptical oftentimes. When I hear people talk about love in these settings I think what does it really really mean isn't just a decorative word but there it's not I went to. EPA and I found out that the data told a picture that was more of how we feel about it that how they feel about it and as soon as I saw that I thought Mary you just been wrong for a long time. I'm about a lot of things probably so at the beginning of the interview you asked me about the data and the study of people and that's how I came away with just the strong conviction that ultimately economics of it's going to be really good has to be about people because we simply study things as data points from a satellite light perspective we will lose some of the context so I was totally wrong about that and the context matters that was married daily. CEO and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and I'm Steven dubner coming up next time. Steve Levitt my freakonomics friend and CO author is on a crusade high really think that we we would do an incredible service to society if we rethought high school math and turned it into something that was actually useful the new new math that's next time on freakonomics radio. FREAKONOMICS.
"fed" Discussed on Freakonomics
"Hey let me ask you this. Who in your view is the most successful fed chair in recent history and why Oh my gosh. I can't even pick a favorite movie. I really struggled to pick favorites. It doesn't have to be a favourite. Maybe just describe some either actions or temperament or handling of term of Fed chair in you know medium recent history less four five six decades. Whatever you just particularly admire but tell told me why okay okay let me talk about Janet Yellen because I worked so closely with her so we're Janice President of San Francisco Fed before she becomes vice chair and we're in the financial crisis and she's got all these economists over the system working on these issues studying things calibrating brady models and we're giving her all the research and we feel like we've done our jobs impart because we've given all all the research and at one point and I won't use the the phrasing she us but at one point she adjust frankly had enough and she puts both hands down on the table like and she says there are people there was a word in between these are people's lives and it was this emphatic call to we are not making widgets here like what if this is your mom and dad out of work would if you lost your home. What is your not studying people losing homes. What is your losing homes and it was that level of vulnerability and humanness that I I said okay that's a leader that I get and so then she goes on to be the vice chair and I saw her do this. In her vice-chair work and she was the chair. I saw her navigate a very rough waters on. Should we raise earlier than we did. As an institution would just full employment really look like and I again saw her. Stay steadfast and essentially say you know on my watch. I'M GONNA balance both sides of the the dual mandate and think about financial stability all at the same time so you asked earlier is due condoms really believe that economics is about people and we'll Janet Janet Yellen does so current. Fed Chairman Jay Powell has had an interesting tenure to say the least given the I guess iconoclastic nature of the trump trump administration. There's never been a president as far as I know in recent history. At least who's been so outspoken about the Fed and its moves Here's a couple recent tweets. The president tweeted. We have the greatest companies in the world. There's nobody even close but unfortunately the same cannot be said about our Federal Reserve. They have called it wrong. At every step of the way another tweet the Fed has got to do something. The Fed is the Central Bank of the United States not the Central Bank of the world. So can you describe five what it's like to be a central banker in a time when the president is willing to publicly rebuke the central banks work. Well let me see. I say that we all live in a much more open world than we used to that. We've always had disharmony. There have been times when people think the Fed's Ed's not doing something right or this group isn't doing something right. Another government institution isn't doing something right the thing that's different now and I would say it's globally different is that that things are just more accessible. Twitter has made all the debates that used to be behind closed doors and we'd learn about them long. After people had departed their positions have been to live live but there's always been that unspoken rule that the Fed because of its political independence. The president was not supposed to be in conversation with the Fed certainly in a public arena so that's changed. I don't need I'm not a historian but I am a casual student of history and when I go back and read periods of history things look as contentious and debatable. It's just very public now and what I want to say about the chair is that I admire the fact that the chair and the Federal Reserve has not gotten caught up in conversations about are we worried about our independence and instead is restated the principles that made us independent in nineteen thirteen and has continued to do the best work so let's talk about the economy generally. It seems to me like it's in a really interesting sort of strange place. Unemployment employment is very low. Wage growth is small but it is positive stock. Markets are at all time highs. You recently told The Wall Street Journal. We have good solid college. Domestic momentum consumer confidence is high consumer. Spending is solid. We see a strong labor market so the fundamentals that keep the economy going are present and yet. There's a great repeal of anxiety over the economy. Some of it may be cyclical. It's been a long time since the recession but what do you think of the sources of that anxiety over the economy and you think they are legitimate. We'll I think there is something to the idea that people get nervous. When expansions lasts a long time we have this whole group of literature that says expansions don't don't die of old age and yet everybody thinks they do so. I think there's just general nervousness. When you hit your ten year mark the longest expansion in history the natural human tendency is to think it can't last forever then you look at it in the data and there's been a lot of uncertainty. There's trade uncertainty. There is brexit uncertainty. There's geopolitical uncertainty. There's just the general financial volatility that comes from just markets trying to figure things out that creates uncertainty so this just creates creates a level of angst that makes people even more cautious than they would be if they were simply just thinking the expansion would run out of gas because it's old so all those factors actors are ones that create mood issues and you know the big question that I've been wrestling with the last nine months is what's going to win the data or the mood. If you look at the data the data are good apart from business investment. There really isn't any week indicator in the US economy in the business. Investment is unpredictable because of the uncertainty largely around trade. Would you argue the no. I don't think it's just that I think that's a part of it for sure but one of my ways I spend a lot of my time is to go out and talk to business leaders and community leaders when I talked to business leaders and this has been going on since November October of twenty eighteen so I start talking to them about this uncertainty piece back when uncertainty starts to spike and they weren't talking about trade. They thought that would be resolved. They were talking about the expansions getting along in age and so we might just simply are footing so then that uncertainty got replaced by Brexit then it became trade that it was the debt ceiling now. It's trade again so I think for businesses they've been on the cautious fording for a long time but most of the people I talk to are still executing on what they call their plan as which means I'm investing enough to continue growing but I'm not going to invest in these marginal projects that are really going to take me to the next level until I see how the lead land shapes up you know oh it's easy to focus on the problems or the faultlines or whatnot but let me ask you something about the strength of the US economy so if we were talking at the the peak of the great recession and you said that you know the US economy which was the primary driver of the great recession and was hit particularly hard that the US economy on me would be one of the world's strongest and steadiest economies ten years later. Would you have believed it. I mean I wouldn't have so I guess what I'm really asking is what does that indicate does it indicate some intrinsic strengths of the US economy that are typically overlooked in the daily commentary well. I guess I disagree we on that I mean I thought we were well positioned to get ourselves into a better positioning in and out of the situation we had but it's a good question about. Why did I have any of that optimism. We were really hit hard early on so we were in the emergency room and when you're in the emergency room you bring an all hands on deck approach. You know it's easier to throw everything you have at something when you know it's a really bad problem we were among the most severely affected early on but that meant we put everything we had to it and we worked hard to to stimulate the economy. We had fiscal packages. We had monetary policy packages. Did you know variety of moves outside of even the the interest rate to try to stimulate the economy so that was where we were we recognized at the time that this was a long hard slog. It wasn't lowered the interest rate and then as soon as you saw any green shoot you go back to normal it. was you gotta be lower for longer on interest rates. You've got to be stimulative on the fiscal side. You've got to be helpful on the relocation retraining side. You basically had a once in a lifetime. You hope shock and you have a lot of work to do to get you out of it there. There is this sort of rising sentiment among some economists rows chetty comes to mind and also among the occasional presidential candidate. Andrew Yang comes to mind the idea they're expressing is automation and AI and other technologies advance the very nature of work will continue to change as well the relationship between humans and working that we aren't really well equipped to handle these changes structurally and we're not that nimble so what's your end the feds position -sition on that complicated problem so here's the deal of course. We need to think about structural change. The economy is changing at a rate of speed that looks like like something that I'm sure people who didn't have electrification and they got electricity and then we had assembly lines felt but it's happening in so we need to think about what is our future. Look like there should be a high bar for change because change is difficult and we don't want to tear down things just to say. We did it but there should be this considerable I thought given to how do we not solve the problems of fifty years ago but how we solve the problems of twenty years from now well. Can you give me some specifics. What what kind of structural changes specifically would you advocate for them. The question I have is we haven't revised our social safety net in forty fifty years ears. Should we take another look and see if that's the right thing to have at this point in time in the modern workforce are the systems of retraining unemployment insurance divisions between welfare programs versus entitlement programs insurance programs versus entitlement programs. Are those the right definitions missions. Is that really helping family when they have an economic shock find their footing again. I love to hear your thoughts on a universal basic income mm-hmm you this was something the Nixon administration tried to get through and we ended up with supplemental security income instead and the reasons that they couldn't get Republicans and Democrats to agree and they couldn't get lots of people to agree because the concerns about universal basic income where that would be a work disincentive so I liked the principle of let's think about what the social safety net should look like in the future and let's make sure that we're taking care of people who really have fallen on hard our times and can't take care of themselves. I think we oversimplify the problems to make them easy to understand but the actually then end up not being very effective in maybe it's this time in our future complicated world just recognize policies or complicated seek about trade. The idea that trade is good for everyone is still true but it's only true that it makes everyone better off in real time if we redistribute the proceeds from the trade more evenly against the people who got displaced by it so that's an obvious obvious thing we could tackle. That's part of the social safety net that we've only waved at honestly what you just described. That disequilibrium is kind of consequence. It's a quince of the globalization and shifting workforce at a lot of economists twenty thirty years ago told us was going to work out better Larry Cats. It's you know one of the most well regarded Labor economists in the world has admitted recently that you know we didn't get very right. We Mis underestimated the costs for people people who would be misplaced so to people who have lived back. What do you say to them when you as a Labor economist working at the Fed now now says hey this time we get it this time we understand this time. We're going to make a better plan so thirty years ago. Economists honest writing about various problems were using what we now call partial equilibrium models. We're looking at the narrow slice and some some of the assumptions embedded in trade dislocations were that people would retrain they'd get some subsidy from the government for retraining and then they would easily reenter the workforce in a different skill so there would be a painful transition costs but there wouldn't be this very large friction that prevented them from ever reentering or displaced him forever ever so we completely underestimated the costs because we were looking in this very partial equilibrium world so the answer to people isn't trust us. This time will be different. We got it right. The cancer is the public should be asking these questions. Okay I get it. Trade is good. If you redistribute the proceeds powers that redistribution going to happen and how am I going to get retrained not economist simply got it wrong and we shouldn't trust them again. I think it's revisiting of the social contract. What do do we mean. When we have a program that has winners and losers. Do we simply accept that cost or do. We say you know what as policymakers we have to find a way to mitigate that difference and my work is a public policy. Person Or public servant is always been. It's our job to serve the whole public so we help mitigate that different. You can't always do it but certainly one generation from the time it happens. We should be able to do it. That should be our goal Tell me something that you believed for a long time to be true until you found out that you had been wrong or if wrong is not a word that resonates nicely. Tell me something substantial that you changed your mind about how and why the the data tell us the whole story. I was a true group believer in the profession of my training that I could look at the data if I studied it and I did natural experiments and used aggregate data and I read everything I could possibly read. I have a real good line of sight into what the reality of a situation was and I was totally wrong and I had had this hit me right in.
"fed" Discussed on Freakonomics
"Fed after starting out as a high school dropout so even in that bad fortune you had the good fortune of having a a kind of safety net arise around you that you wouldn't have anticipated. Your couldn't have foreseen but you know I'm I'm sure that for many people when they have such misfortune that safety net doesn't rise up some curious how that specific period of your life informs the way. You've approached your economic research. It made me realize that we're leaving so much talent on the table think think about full employment if we have so many people sidelined and we don't take advantage of them there were restricting them for sure but we're also restricting our economy so it becomes a key theme in in everything I do and it it goes all the way back to the the time I fell through if not by good luck and good fortune I would have been one of those people and I never would have been married daily early on freakonomics. What did your siblings ended up doing. My sister is a medical receptionist and both my brothers have had episodic employment in construction or other things and you know just living on the boom and bust of whatever the economic cycle brings them and you know they're not in line to be the first people employed because they all dropped out of high school. We all dropped out of high school in the end and while we all were able to go back and get a ged eventually eventually. It isn't something that's easy. If you don't go beyond and GATT additional education I know there's a lot of research showing that shocks to the system mm-hmm as a child and it sounds like your family had a lot of different shocks to the system are really influential downstream and employment education outcomes and so on it sounds as though your family is I guess a median example of that and a lot of ways yeah shocks you experience when you're young wrong they affect your parents and they affect you and the ultimately affect your children and in my case they have affected my nieces and nephews who are raised by my siblings and so so shelly and I my partner have been trying to interject but these are strong inertial pains essentially and it takes escape velocity at every generation even my nieces and nephews to lift them out and so you'll see more people in my extended family continue not to go to college then who go to college all right so let's drill down a little bit on education as a driver of economic success. Obviously the federal government is not in charge of education although it does have a hand on it in a number of channels so let's just take a couple examples that are problematic one. Is You know. US Educational Standards Compared to other rich countries. It's relatively quite quite poor and then you know higher. Education College is is problematic from a financial perspective from no others. We've seen massive massive college tuition debt skyrocketing so if you're pointing to education the the big driver of success it's very easy to point to those touch points as not failures outright but real problem points it would seem as though things are not moving in the right direction so make your best case that you and your colleagues at the. Fed Reserve have some sense of what to do because otherwise it feels like you know you're saying nice words and thinking nice thoughts but the evidence for successful outcomes isn't there we'll. I'm undaunted by unsuccessful pasts. I just meant to be harder for the future so so it's more than nice words though now the jury's out about whether we move the needle but we would quickly put the ones we've tried and didn't move the needle aside and start on something new you my go-to low income communities and not a single person in those communities says that a college degree isn't worth it so then you ask low income communities. What do we need to help your students get college ready. They can teach them the reading and writing and the arithmetic part of it what they need is the social fabric that supports those kids and allows them to see themselves in the future and so here in San Francisco we have variety of educational programs but one that we're really excited about right now is the first gen program and we're building virtual bridge for people between High School and college and in that were very influenced by the research of course she wouldn't be surprised that the most likely reason kids drop out in the first semester isn't the funding it's fitting in is not feeling like they belong and so we have over a hundred and fifty first gen employees and we're building this basically virtual posse coming up after the break we ask Mary Daly to name her favorite fed share of recent history and we find out why why it's so hard to read even the near future of the US economy. The big question I've been wrestling with is what's going to win the data or the mood. It's coming up up right after this freakonomics radio is sponsored by state farm state farm believes in strengthening communities where the challenge all state farm employees and agents to give back.
"fed" Discussed on Freakonomics
"Your host Stephen Duffner the when the Federal Reserve Bank is in the news these days. It's usually related to its most public policy tool the setting of interest rates as the global financial meltdown and great recession set in the Fed under its then chairman. Ben Bernanke dropped rates to zero. This was in two thousand eight and they stayed there for seven years. The idea was zero rates. Were necessary to prevent a depression and help the economy rebound. Burundi's successor Janet Yellen finally began to raise rates confident. The recovery was was secure in two thousand eighteen yellen was succeeded by Jerome Powell who'd been installed under the newly elected President Donald Trump Powell also oh continued to nudge the Fed's rates higher encouraged by a robust economy and record stock market highs most monetary policy veterans felt that Powell all was playing just right in this environment. You didn't need to make money too cheap and you also didn't want to spike inflation but not everyone agreed with Powell and his most vocal critic almost right from the start happened to be the president of the United States that I think the Fed is out of control. I think what they're doing is wrong. Along the Fed is technically and historically an independent operation. The president is not it's boss but trump has very publicly encouraged how how to drop interest rates despite the relative strength of the US economy why there are any number of reasons other countries central banks have kept their rates low. The European Central Bank's rates are currently set below zero. There's also the ongoing. US Tariff War with China trump macy low oh rates as a useful counterweight in that battle as well as a means to avoid a self inflicted. US economic slowdown should the tariff or escalate furthermore the more the global economy is showing serious signs of slowing down in any case president trump has leaned hard on the Fed to cut rates and in the last few months Jerome Powell and the Fed have done just that twice I in July. We decided today to lower the target for the federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage venage point. It is intended to ensure against downside risks from week global growth in trade policy uncertainty and again just last week and the Federal Reserve. It cuts the bench mark quarter of a percentage point. The federal funds rate is now one point seven five percent two percent of the Fed's policy setting committee. It is uncharacteristically divided as to the future direction of interest rates. Drome Powell did say there may well be further cuts trump for his part is not remotely satisfied. After the most recent cut he tweeted that Powell and the Fed have quote no guts no sense no vision. He said he wants rates brought down to zero or less a few months ago. We had Gary Cohn on our show. He's the former head of president trump's national economic council. I'd ask cone whether Powell was thinking about interest rates purely on the merits or as a capitulation to trump's twitter demands. I'm going to hope it wasn't I surely hope and I almost pray that what the Fed did was in reaction to what they were seeing in. The data that they felt felt there was an actual slowing of the economy and they were in the wrong place so we thought it might be an interesting time to hear from someone at the Federal Reserve up to learn what they are seeing in the data and what they're doing about it. Mary Daly took over the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Just under a year ago she started working there in one thousand nine hundred ninety six one of her mentors was Janet Yellen who before becoming chair of the Federal Reserve ran the San Francisco Fed from two thousand four four to two thousand ten and for those who don't fully understand what the heck the Federal Reserve Bank is or does and I honestly really kind of include myself there. what don't you tell us what it is and does so let me start by telling you the banner we put on the Front lobby of our bank in San Francisco and it says right as you walk in the door. Our work serves every American and countless global citizens impractical terms that includes three things we work on supporting a healthy economy through monetary policy given a dual mandate. The Congress gave us we are looking to achieve full employment and price stability but the real thing the underpinning of that is a healthy economy so that everybody has an opportunity to participate eight to their full abilities. The second thing we do is we work on financial intermediation so we're in charge of regulation and supervision to many of the banks and financial institutions itution economy and the real goal there is to ensure that there's interconnectedness among people so that again everybody has access to you savings and wealth accumulation and investment to allow them to fully participate in the economy and then the third thing is the payment system and we are responsible for the safety and soundness the payment system and the piece that everybody knows really intimately is cash the dollar the coins and dollars in her pocket so this sounds like if the Fed word magically tragically disappear tomorrow the way that some people on some fringes occasionally wish for a whole lot of things would happen. Yes yes and when people are asking questions about will why is the Fed getting in the way here or why. Is it doing this thing that I don't understand stand or agree with. It's largely not about they want the Fed gone it's really about they wanted to work more effectively and our the job our mission is to continuously listen to people so that we can take that in but we do know if we would disappear then the risks that were present when we were created nineteen thirteen would once again merge and that was a much worse situation than any of us want to repeat those risks were a series of financial panics panics and bank failures this led. Congress to pass the Federal Reserve Act and the establishment of the central bank the goals then and now were to you stabilize the banking sector ensure the free flow of capital and keep unemployment and inflation low so yes. The Fed has the reach to affect just about every every American every day and billions of other people but it seems to approach this mission at a serious remove the Fed doesn't seem very interested in explaining Y for example a country as rich as ours has so many people just one step away from financial ruin as Mary. Daly's own family was or for why we built an economy that's so good at providing cheap food and clothing and TV's while the cost of healthcare and higher education in real estate have spiked baked beyond the reach of many. Mary Daly does seem interested in wrestling with these dilemmas. She hosts a podcast called Zip Code economies where she travels travels around her region to find out what's happening on the ground. There was an earlier podcast called twice around just talking to my nephew just started his first semester. Mr In college in Missouri One of the state schools and he went in wanting to be a math teacher and he was asking me is a math teacher good career. It's really really want to do but I know. It doesn't pay very much many times. They said well. It depends on what you want your life. If you really want to teach math ask you have to realize that you can probably going to have a smaller home than people who want to work in the stock market and that's okay if those things that matter to you or teaching math and and you don't actually care about having the biggest home in around the block or something of that sort daily gets into a lot of topics that you wouldn't expect a fed president to get into gratitude the nature of facts how a person should know what they quote deserve serve. We have to know the people we serve and if you don't engage in these deep questions of what makes people do the things they do are people missing out on opportunities because they don't actually count the benefits of some of their actions. You know think mentorship. We often thank well we discount the benefits of future. Creations of our of our men teased because we don't see them. These are all things that go deeply to issues like gratitude gratitude and are you getting what you deserve at. How do you even think about that. Those are things that are integral to doing our best work as policy makers loose. That's how I see it. You've said that people misunderstand economics as the study of data or finances and you define it simply as the study of humans kind of psychology. Oh Gee writ large now personally. I would like to think that your definition is legit because I think it's really important for calmest take human behavior into account but I would argue that most economists are not very concerned or maybe just not very good at describing and predicting and maybe influencing human behavior and furthermore I would say most public communication from your own organization. The Federal Reserve Bank certainly doesn't sound as if it's about or intended for actual humans so oh tell me why I'm wrong and you're right that economists like you even the Fed really is about understanding standing people humans social interaction etc etc.. I guess the question I ask myself is why are the perceptions of what economics this is even among economists so very different than the reality of what we do. One reason is. It's really hard to be vulnerable. It's really difficult to say we don't know I'm trained to be quantitative. My whole ethos is about quantitative measurement trying to figure things out but if you do that and I think there are many economists reach this point in their career. If you do that you eventually run into the wall that is the data aren't the answers they're part of the answer but they're not the complete picture and to the. Fed I think that's a reasonable criticism of us as an institution that we haven't haven't always been forthcoming about the people part of our job but we recognize that when Jay Powell took over as chair the very first thing he did is said we have to go out and do this program called. Fed listens and it wasn't just about. We want to hold ten research conferences. We're super good at research conferences but but he said we want to go out and talk to community people about monetary policy. We are not very practice at that so the American dream is a famous and beloved of concept and it's a concept to my mind certainly describes your life your accomplishment but more and more people argue that the dream is not dead at least greatly lately diminished so let me ask you in a nutshell is the American dream dead or alive or maybe better on which dimensions is the American most most alive and on which dimensions most in trouble so here's the thing I've learned over my life. The American dream has has always been mostly emotional and then over periods of our history. The facts have correlated more nicely with that aspiration and sometimes they failed us but it hasn't been that in our beginning of our history it was great and now in the later part of our history is less great. It's gone back and forth all you have to do is go back to the Great Depression and see that it wasn't always glorious so what I see is opportunities to leverage and amplify things that work and fix six and boost the things that don't so if you look at the chances that someone born in the lowest income quintile can rise up to the middle or have them ability beyond on the first or second quintile they rise to about average chances that anyone can move anywhere if those kids get a college education and she think wow the American dream is alive and well fantastic and then you look at how many kids born into the lowest quintile of the income distribution actually get a college college degree and is less than ten percent and so then you think well. That's not so great so that's where the American dream gets complicated. Yes it is absolutely true through that. Get a college degree. You can become someone like me but we haven't brought me to scale. We'll have so many examples that I become the norm and nobody asked me about my story anymore because they see so many people around them who have lived that exact story and that's where I think the American dream the aspiration doesn't fit the data daily was born in nineteen sixty two. We're growing up in Missouri and my father was a postman. My mom stayed at home. Tom And we didn't even know that we were lower middle class. We just knew that we had to buy things at those big stores that sell the day-old things and if you go two days later you can even cheaper but then would you don't know as a kid is that you're super close to falling through and you're just one little hiccup away and my family had a number of hiccups health shocks job shocks marital shocks and as a consequence we fell through and then falling through looks completely different then. I thought so it becomes a shaming event as well. I know that your siblings went to live with your grandparents but you dropped out of high school and started working and you lived with a friend. Yes yes right exactly and I had a different series series of of people I connect with the first people I lived with where my substitute teacher in seventh grade and they let me stay in their attic and I worked worked and I sent money to my family and I helped myself. I paid them a little bit of money. Even though of course when you think of it it was absurd the money I gave them probably was meaningless but it was important to me. I did not have to feel like I was begging and not able to take care of myself and they they helped me build those little bits of confidence. I think that was essential looking back on it and really transformational daily had planned to become a bus driver. It was a union job with benefits but she had a mentor who suggested that she get her. Ged and go to college daily accepted the advice along with a loan of two hundred and sixteen dollars for tuition at the University of Missouri St Louis. She started off studying psychology but switched to economics. She became particularly interested in labor economics and public policy in in Nineteen ninety-four. She got her from Syracuse University but you get the sense that Mary Daly never forgets even for a minute the very long odds she beat to become president of the San Francisco..
"fed" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"If you don't see a big dent on the real economy than it allows the fed to continue with what will be a more gradual path of rate increases in two thousand nineteen you mentioned the markets falling and they actually fell the most during Powell's press conference. And so what that tells you is even though the fed did what most people expected it to do. They expected rate increase, and they and the fed delivered one they expected the fed would ease off of its twenty nineteen plans, and the fed did that the fed even signaled much less certainty about the path and twenty nineteen. So all of that was expected the fed is moving into more of a fine tuning or wait and see phase of policy but markets had begun to wonder if the fed might go even further and say, you know, what we're done raising interest rates, and so people who watch the fed closely didn't think that was. Very likely, but the markets had begun to price in no rate increases in two twenty nineteen. And so seeing a less aggressive path to rate increases instead of three wasn't enough because the markets had really begun to think that maybe Powell would indicate the fed has done raising interest rates, and maybe the next move could be up or down and Powell definitely did not say that and markets appear to have not liked that. And of course, the fed had been buffeted by criticism from the president even in the days leading up to the final meeting of the year and fed chair. Jerome Powell was asked about that on Wednesday. You know, political considerations have played no role whatsoever. In our discussions or decisions about monetary policy. We're always going to be focused on the mission that congress has given us we have the tools to carry it about we have the independence, which we think is essential to be able to do our jobs in a non-political way. And you know, we are we at the fed are absolutely committed. To that mission. And nothing will deter us from doing what we think is is the right thing to do. Nick, this is similar to comments Powell has made before what did you make of his statements on Wednesday on the lot of his answers Wednesday about the economy or the path policy? He was very uncertain. He was hedged. He he was clear that he doesn't really know. And so they're not going to be able to offer a lot of specifics. But when it came to the question of could your decisions be influenced by politics and by criticism from the from the president of the United States. He was firm. He was he was unequivocal, and he repeated himself he says this is played no role whatsoever. And never will. And so that he couldn't have been clear on that. And and I found that quite striking. That's Wall Street Journal reporter, Nick Tim rose joining us from Washington with the details on the Fed's last meeting of the year. Thank you so much Nick, thanks for having me. And that's what's news. I'm Ameri for totally in New York for the Wall Street Journal..
"fed" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"The Federal Reserve is signaling a more gradual pace of rate hikes in the new year with fed chair Jerome Powell saying to rate increases or likely in twenty nineteen the fed wrapped up its final meeting of twenty eighteen on Wednesday raising short-term interest rates a quarter percentage point to arrange between two and a quarter and two and a half percent. Joining us now from Washington with more details on what comes next is Wall Street Journal reporter, Nick Tim timorous, Nick, we knew heading into this meeting that the fed would likely raise rates for the fourth time this year, which they did. But what everyone really wanted to know is how the fed is viewing the year ahead. So how of the Fed's productions changed for the coming year regarding inflation, unemployment and other economic factors the feds economic forecasts didn't change a whole lot. They revised down a little bit there projection of growth for next year. And they revised down their projections of inflation by a tenth of a point. And that probably RIC. Flex a big drop we've seen in oil prices and the pullback in some foreign economies and the expectation that global growth might be a bit softer next year. The reason the US growth picture looks a little bit different is because of the some of the stress you've seen in financial markets that makes it more expensive for companies to borrow borrow or it could make businesses a little bit more reluctant on investment or hiring. And so that can slow growth, and as a result of that that the main change to the feds forecast was to revise down. Their path of projected interest rate increases in two thousand nineteen in September, the majority of officials thought they would need to raise rates both at the meeting on Wednesday and then three times in two thousand nineteen after the increase. Most officials now think the fed will only need to raise rates two times in twenty nineteen. So that was really the big change. And it was probably because of the tightening of financial conditions. You've seen. Over the past two months. So Powell did say likely to raise rates only two times next year as opposed to the four this year or even three he also pointed to those factors you mentioned slowing global growth recent market volatility, and we did see markets go down certainly on Wednesday after the fed concluded its meeting. He also pointed to those factors and said they could show some softening. But hadn't drastically changed the outlook yet what other clues did he give about next year? And what may factor into the feds plans woke they're going to look to see if this market turmoil? Actually, I is reflecting something that's happening in the economy is the market figuring out something about the growth outlook that we don't yet see in the data or in the forecasts. Or is this something of a more technical nature is you know, markets may have been running a little bit too hot earlier this year. And so are they coming back more online with fundament? That's really the question right now our markets telling us something, we don't know or is the data gonna take this in stride..
"fed" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"It is unusual. We've seen it many times. But it's especially unusual. I think that the president is tweeting about this just a couple of days or one day before fed officials will gather for their meeting. They have a two day meeting. It starts tomorrow. And then Wednesday they'll announce their decision as the journal is written. The fed says it's raising rates to return them to a more normal setting and avoid the type of boom and bust economy that ended in past recessions, I think the one thing that is tricky for fed officials. They've talked for a long time about wanting to raise interest rates gradually, and that's because they have sort of two separate risks. If they if they go too, slowly, there's a risk that inflation could pick up and that they could get what's commonly referred to as behind the curve that is that inflation gets out of control, and they won't be able to catch up to it by raising interest rates. The flip side of that is that of course, they raise rates too quickly, and that triggers a very fast slowdown in growth in it could trigger a recession. And so they've tried to maintain this very stable. Kind of steady path. But as the fed chairman Jerome Powell has started talking about in recent weeks that path is becoming less certain because of trade tensions because of a housing slowdown and because of concerns about global growth, and so he's talked a lot more about being more data dependent, and perhaps even adopting this wait and see approach they've been raising rates once a core about once a quarter, and we could start to see that change next year. I think the the word used right around that time was flexibility in how the fed sets interest rates. But apparently that was not enough to appease, Mr. Trump. You know, he has spent months criticizing the fed. This was hardly his his first blast. Right. I think the president is concerned about this market volatility perhaps and concern about the risk that the fed continuing to raise rates could could could actually slow down growth. Now. Fed officials have said that their policies as actually still somewhat accommodative that is their policy is not slowing. Down the economy yet that's not where they are. But obviously, there's big important implications for the president here. You know, we're past the midterms and now in the way that campaigns work now, we're almost heading into the next election cycle. And so he has to be thinking about what is going to be happening with the economy when he's out there running for re election would be remiss if I didn't ask this question fed chairman Pell is going to hold a press conference at the conclusion of the meeting on Wednesday. Do you think it's likely that he will be asked about Mr. Trump's tweet, and that he'll feel compelled to respond. I think he absolutely will be asked about it. And I think he absolutely will not respond directly to it. I'm sure he'll say something we've heard him get asked this, you know, similar question many times as as we've seen and heard the president talking about about the fed chairman. And he basically says, you know, we we make our decisions based on what's best for the economy, not based on political considerations. You know, he won't. He probably definitely will not meant. In the president directly. But I think he'll try to address this. It is the elephant in the room. Everyone is wondering to what extent the president's comments are weighing on the fed. So he'll have to address it somehow. But I think that he'll be extremely careful about how he does. So joining us from Washington, Wall Street Journal reporter, Kate Davidson, thanks Kate. Thank you, Charlie. And that's what's news. I'm Charlie Turner in New York for the Wall Street Journal..
"fed" Discussed on WSJ What's News
"This week brings the minutes from the Federal Reserve September meeting plus retail sales and data on the housing market joining us now from Washington with the details is Wall Street Journal reporter, Sharon, none. Sharon, let's start with the fed minutes. A lot happened last week with the president. Again, criticizing the fed over short-term interest rates that was after Wednesday's market selloff. But the data were getting this Wednesday won't reflect that news instead. It will give us some insight on the September meeting. That's where the fed said. The economy remains strong and penciled in a fourth rate hike for the end of this year and last month, the Fed's seemed pretty confident and seeing that plan through. Yeah, yeah, that's true. So in that meeting in September, the fed raised short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, and it was there was this really interesting dichotomy that kind of has kind of showed up recently. And that's that some fed officials say as long as employment keeps falling farther below the level that they project is consistent with stable prices, the fed will need to raise rates to prevent. At the economy from overheating, which is like a very standard perspective, right? But there's this other camp, which is really interesting. That argues that this is this is more radical if inflation doesn't appear to be exceleron beyond two percent. And we've seen hints that that's the case. Recently with recent inflation reports, the fed could stop raising rates after reaching a so called neutral setting. And then of course, there's another strand to all of this fed talk. You know, President Trump has kind of bashed the fed in recent days, arguing it shouldn't be raising rates the way currently has been, and this is pretty unprecedented right. Politics of usually been left out of the monetary policy realm. So fed policymakers, monetary policy makers could do what they feel like is necessary without congressional or presidential oversight essentially. So that's kind of what we're looking for further evidence in the feds reasoning for choosing to raise rates by an another quarter percentage point, right? And more experience of this kind of divide between fed officials whether or not we should keep raising rates or or pull back if inflation stops player. The way it had been in previous months. So let's turn to retail sales. That data is out on Monday. We've seen pretty strong results from major retailers with a few exceptions. What will you'll be looking for in this report? Yeah. So it's it's key to remember. Of course, that consumer spending is the key driver of the us economy. It represents about two-thirds of g. p. of our economic output and in August US, consumers kind of actually rained in their spending after a very strong spending growth that we saw in July, which I think is kind of reflected in those earnings reports. But still, I mean to put this into perspective, the overall weakness that we saw in August was largely due to a drop in auto sales. So you know, that may not necessarily say something as strong as if maybe we'd seen across the board spending declines. There's one interesting thing to add here though. One PNC economists that w spoke with said that hurricane Florence may actually mess up the spending data for September and a pretty interesting pattern going forward with purchases ahead of the storm. You know, maybe things like food and other supplies decline in sales in the immediate. Aftermath, right? And then and then gains again during the recovery phase when people are making purchases for repairs on the like. So this week also brings several housing reports. We have the housing market index on Tuesday than housing starts on Wednesday and existing home sales on Friday. Last week, we learned that housing mortgage rates are nearing five percent. What can this week's data tell us in that context about the health of the sector and where it's headed? Yeah, absolutely. The rising mortgage rates, you know, it's good in terms of showing that the fed sees that the economy is healthy, Right Math where we're raising rates, you know, that kind of feeds into the different interest rates that we see in different borrowing aspects of the economy, but it's bad in that we're seeing that mortgage rates combined with rising prices for homes. It's kind.