32 Burst results for "Eurasia Group"
"eurasia group" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Supplying is multinational clients was huge. It was like a war, our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks, and so, economists estimate China's yearly GDP growth could be north of 2.5% this year, even as the rest of the world economy will shrink by at least 4%. That differential will give Chinese companies war market share in greater economic influence. Global steel production dropped so China share of production can only rise I estimate this year, China will be at 60% of global steel production. This's leasing Trump, the president of a state industry group in June and July on Ly China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy has recovered earlier and Faster than that of others, including the U. S economy. Its trade surplus this year will widen even more. Michael Herson, China Lee that consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long running accusations. China benefits more from the global economic order. The fact that China is back up and running smoothly and in fact some evidence against that China's actually grabbing market share. And export industries will be a cause of concern for US policymakers in particular. Last year, a trade war in difficult operating environment lets some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out. This year, The American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's latest survey found more than 78% of respondents has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's Stability premium kicking back in in the sense that COS now are dealing with a global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking. So Rosie right now, China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's hallway and economics analyst at Beijing Research from Gavin. Cal Dragon Onyx overall is still on investment from a story And where Watson. What's left Behind is mainly the consumption, especially for the working people related consumption, meaning there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making their cars. But consumer demand has been weaker. And unlike many countries, including the U. S. China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners. Many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic that could further throw supply and demand out of sync because the quality will widen again and will weigh down the consumption growth. But for now, China is doing all right. The question is, how long it can keep it up. Emily Fang NPR NEWS China And coming up tomorrow on morning edition. For the first time, NASA is getting.
China Economy Grows 4.9% as Rest of World Struggles With Coronavirus
"It's economy grew 4.9% in the latest quarter. It may be the on ly major economy to expand this year, having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's Emily Thing has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon visit Finova's assembly lines in southern Georgia on problems, various machine presses and quality control machines clack away that kind of sounds like a nine inch Nails song. That's Jen Ambrose, one of the engineers Finova, which makes rare earth magnets, the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iPhone. Finova, like the rest of China is backto work, Construction, manufacturing and automobiles are all booming. And that's good business for the Nova, which mostly cells to North American car plants. Here's Vice President Chirac. There goes me with short hair. You mean elimination time consumer demand is down. But because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America been stocking up on our components. Back in February, sweetie, it got production going in the middle of China's outbreak. He had to negotiate with dozens of villages to let his workers that have locked down and come back to work. Pressure to keep supplying his multinational clients was huge. You know, it was like a war, our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks, and so, economists estimate China's yearly GDP growth could be north of 2.5% this year, even as the rest of the world's economy will shrink by at least 4%. Differential will give Chinese companies more market share in greater economic influence from what global steel production dropped. So China share of production can only rise I estimate this year, China will be at 60% of global steel production. This's leasing Trump, the president of a state industry group in June and July, Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy is recovered earlier in Faster than that of others, including the U. S economy, Its trade surplus this year will widen even more. Michael Herson, China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long running accusations China benefits more from the global economic order the fact that China is back up and running smoothly and in fact, some evidence against that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for US policymakers in particular. Last year, a trade war in a difficult operating environment led some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out. But this year, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's latest survey found more than 78% of respondents. Has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that COS. Now are dealing with a global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking So Rosie right now, China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's hallway and economics analyst at Beijing. Research from Gavin Cal Dragon Onyx overall is deal on investment from a story and where will have seen what's left behind is mainly the consumption especially for the working people related consumption, meaning there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. Consumer demand has been weaker. And unlike many countries, including the U. S. China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic That could further throw supply and demand out of sync because the quality will widen again and will weigh down the consumption growth. But for now, China is doing all right. Question is how long it can keep it up. Emily Fang NPR News Joe down China
China's Economy Bounces Back As Pandemic Is Brought Under Control
"China announced today that its economy grew four point nine percent. In the latest quarter, it may be the only major economy to expand this year having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's emily. Chang has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon, I visit Novas assembly lines in southern showdown province, various machine presses, and quality control machines clack away kind of sounds like a nine inch nails song that's Jen Ambrose one of the engineers from Nova which makes rare earth magnets the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iphone Senova like the rest of China is back to work construction manufacturing and automobiles are all booming and that's good business for the Nova which mostly sells to North American car plants. Here's vice president share your. Show for your meal your woman from town consumer demand is down because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America I've been stocking up on our components back in February of yet got production going in the middle of China's. He negotiate with dozens of villages let workers at of lockdown and come back to work. The pressure keeps applying as multinational clients was huge. It was like a war. Our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive. Testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks and so economists estimate China's year GDP growth could be north of two and a half percent this year even as the rest of the world economy will shrink by at least four percent. That differential will give Chinese companies market share in greater economic. Influence. Global Steel production dropped. So China share production can only rise. Estimate, this year China will be at sixty percent of global steel production. This is leasing trump the president of estate industry group. A in June and July. Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy has recovered earlier and faster than that of others including the US economy, its trade surplus, this year will widen even more. Michael. Hurston China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long-running accusations. China benefits more from the global economic order. The fact that China is back up and running smoothly, and in fact, some evidence suggests that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for us. Policymaker isn't particular last year a trade war in a difficult operating environment. Let some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out but this year the American Chamber of Commerce in. Shanghai's Lee. Survey found more than seventy eight percent of respondents has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that companies now are dealing with global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking. So rosy right now that China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's Hallway Economics analyst at Beijing Research from Gavitt Kalganov. Six overall is still investment dramatic story and we'll we'll have seen was lagging behind is mainly. Especially for the working people related consumption meaning, there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. The consumer demand has been weaker and unlike many countries including the US China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic, and that could further throw supply and demand out of synch because the equality will widen again and we'll way down the consumption growth but for now, China is doing. All right. The question is how long can keep it up. Only thing NPR news jobs young China
When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.
"Since its debut and twenty seventeen, the Chinese APP tick tock has become one of the fastest growing social media tools with more than eight hundred, million active users. The APP lets users make short videos that are often shared across the Internet, but Tiktok isn't all fun games for months. Now, a lot of the attention about the APP has been focused on the national security concerns and the collection of user data, and as a result, the platform has been banned in India, by multiple branches of the US military and by Wells Fargo employees most recently however, president trump took aim at tiktok himself by threatening to ban the APP. We're looking at Tiktok we may be banning TIKTOK. We may be doing some other things, a couple of options, but a lot of things are happening. So we'll see what happens but we are looking at a lot of alternatives with respected dictum. Those remarks were before reports surfaced that Microsoft was pursuing a deal to buy TIKTOK in a press conference at the White House yesterday president trump claimed Microsoft or any other company would have to wait until September fifteen to acquire the APP and would be expected to give a percentage of the profit from the sale to the US Treasury. Joining me now is Graham Webster editor of digit China Project at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and a fellow at New America Graham thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me. And Cowan Rosenblatt is a youth and Internet cultural reporter for NBC, News. Dot Com callen thanks for being with us as well. Glad to, be here. Cowen who is the average tiktok user? The average tick tock user really is is a dynamic question because there is a huge range of different people who are using the APP but I'd say the most common person you're gonNA find is someone who is either at the tail end of high school or College who is definitely a solidly in generation the Gen Z. and he was using me APP mostly for fun to do dance challenges trends an engaged with communities that serve to their world. Graham. All of that sounds pretty basic I mean it doesn't sound like there's anything to be concerned about so far what type of data does tiktok collect from its users Graham? We'll TIKTOK is like a lot of social media companies these days It's using an AI driven or machine learning driven algorithm to figure out which content to to individual users. So to get this accomplished, they pay attention to obviously whatever you post that also you know what posts on your feed you look at how long you look at them where your device location is They also tried to track individual users like many apps do by looking at things like screen size and operating system and of course, they have a fair amount of information about your social graph, your your connections to friends and other people that you follow. And so what were some of the concerns around the data collection that way Graham given that it feels like there's a lot of, as you mentioned, other social media platforms and advertisers and the like that are tracking everything that we do already. Why? Why is Tiktok being highlighted here and banned in some of the institutions that we mentioned at the top Well, the basic reason is that tick tock is owned by a Chinese company named Bite Dance and they're a fairly new social media company. They had a breakout a few years ago in China with an APP called junior Tokyo that that is a you know an algorithm, IQ news feed and this is China's first big breakout internationally in terms of social media APPS and really getting take-up in in many different countries around the world not just the United States. So there's A concern that data collected by Tick Tock could end up in the hands of the Chinese company or the Chinese government and wild tick. Tock says that it stores all US user data in the US or in Singapore we don't really have a good way as a society right now to check that type of thing and to make sure that companies commit you when they commit to you know storing data and the Safeway making sure that they're actually doing that. Doesn't sound like we have a lot of that in the United States either though Graham. I mean, we have constant security breaches left and right Right. Well, the United States doesn't have a central data governance or data security or privacy Regulatory System the most prominent example of one globally as Europe, which has the general data protection regulation called the GDP are, and that governs things like when an apper services going to collect your personal information they have to gain certain types of consent and follow certain types of rules and there's also kind of limits the. Idea that if you collect data for a certain reason that you got consent for you shouldn't be able to use it for other reasons and that type of governance is just not that prominent in the US partially because the big US social media companies are not especially keen to have their practices heavily regulated they. They find GDP are in Europe to be burdensome and You know get in the way of making money. Kalland back in June president trump organized a rally in Tulsa Oklahoma and rumor has it that tiktok users promoted buying tickets for the event and didn't show up so that the event would be empty. What do we know about how that rubbed of the administration? So, what we know is it seemed to sort of frustrate the administration. Now, there's no evidence that the Tiktok users and K pop stands who are fans of Korean pop music that they had any impact on turnout. We are going through a global pandemic. There are a lot of factors going on right now. So it is really hard to know sort of what that impact was. But what we do know is it likely inflated expectations for turnout. The administration was planning to have a second rally after the main rally in Tulsa. which they then had to cancel, and so we think that it really messed with them. It was a it was a real genuine troll on the part of these tic TAC users against the president, and it really seemed to rub him the wrong way and there are lots of Tiktok users young first time voters who are telling me that when trump said, he wanted to ban this APP that was a retaliation for what they did the stunt they pulled the prank they pulled in Tulsa most what they think is happening. That's what they think is happening why there is no evidence that that's the president's line of thinking but that's what these eighteen to twenty two year olds are telling me that that's their beliefs. Cowan, we talked about The you know whether or not talk users actually had any effect on the trump rally in Tulsa back in June but more more directly here wondering if you're seeing any more political movement on the APP, whether it's a pro trump or pro biden or anti-trump anti, Biden has it started to move away from dance and song and move towards more political leaning so far. It can do both things at once actually. So there are still the dance trends. There are massive accounts that are just enjoying music on the APP but we see a lot of politics on Tiktok now maybe more than ever some young people are telling me they feel that because their home in quarantine and because politics ramping up nationally as we get closer to this election that they're seeing more and more politics in their feet, and what we're seeing is a not so much pro by content, but a lot of anti-trump content and I WANNA be clear. There is Republican Todd Democrat tiktok liberal Tick Tock conservative Tiktok. But what it appears to be is a lot of generation. Z.. Has a anti-trump sentiment and that does not mean they heavy pro biden sentiment. But things that we see our young people say, Hey, on this day, everyone go to president, trump's campaign store and put these products in your cart. But don't check out because allegedly that messes with their inventory or everyone on this day go to president trump's twitter account and report account, and let's see we can get a taken down. So we're still seeing these sort of organized movements sort of Troll, the president and a lot of discussion of politics but whether or not that is in in favor of vice, President Biden or in favor of president trump is sort of yet to be seen. Graham LE. Let's talk a little bit. But I mean, it sounds like tiktok users are for the most part having fun on the site sort of trying to do the things that Collina's talking about here but. On a more serious note, the trump administration has been trying to ban the APP. They're citing national security concerns, concerns over censorship by the Chinese government. Valid are any of those concerns really given what you know about China US politics Well I think it's you have to separate them out So the the concern about censorship I think is legitimate there was there was an example a little while ago where it looked like some of the censorship that they would do in China restricting conversations about things the Communist Party doesn't like discussed had bled over into the international product Now, Tiktok said that they were addressing that wasn't intended again, we don't really. Have a good way in the United States to check up on that and to kind of make sure that speech isn't being censored one way or the other the national security issue I think requires a lot more imagination Now, you know as was mentioned, the the military has has told service members to not use the APP and I think that makes a good amount a sense you know if if you're concerned about an APP Having links to a potential adversary There's all sorts of possibilities of ways that it could be exploited even just using location data of of service members or people who work in sensitive facilities. But if you don't work in sensitive facilities, if you're just sort of going around and and and doing the fun things and engaging in some of the political discourse that Cowan was mentioning you know there's not. A real big national security issue there a I will say that some people think that collecting the full aggregate totality of US Tiktok users could be used later in a analysis to try to do something, but it's really imaginative at this point whereas I think the censorship concerns a real and could be checked on and data privacy concerns are real but should be able to be checked on as well. What about the fact that we we just heard from Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group in the previous segment talking about how the United States is viewed internationally in terms of our response to the corona virus. But I did ask in also about his thoughts on what this Tiktok dust up between president trump and China what seemed to Be Rooted in and he said, you know this is also part of trump's sort of relationship with how he views China and Chinese technology he's gone after while way he's gone you know talked a lot about five G. technologies. So do you see that I mean? Do you see that as a pattern in how the president views technologies specifically that's coming out of China. Yeah I think the you know the trump administration's been. Pursuing a campaign of you know escalating what could be a new type of Cold War approach to China and a lot of it is wrapped up in technology and and I think the focus on Tiktok really makes the most sense. If you consider it a distraction from two things I is a distraction from actual problems with China you know the the trump administration got this phase one trade deal which didn't really get to the deep issues of subsidy and market access and intellectual property protection. And, on the other hand, it's distracting from the fact that a lot of these security concerns should apply across many apps. Why just tick Tock you know you're talking about including American made apps like facebook and twitter. Yeah I mean the concerns are different when the parent company is in China but there are really unaccountable data collection methods going on across ad networks and data brokers are building profiles of Americans and people in other countries that can be purchased just with money and you know it's not only add companies that by this data governments can get it to. Callan, as we sort of touched on this earlier. But of course, we I, say this all the time we're heading into one of the most consequential presedential elections in my lifetime at least social media is constantly changing is tiktok going to be a thing and twenty twenty and November, or is it going to be eclipse with something else or it'll change the? Will it change the election? Calvin what are your thoughts on that? I don't see Tiktok going away anytime soon, as long as the president allows it to operate in the United States I think we're gonNA see more is eight organizing on the APP among young people and I think we're GONNA see. TIKTOK. As long as Microsoft buys it or another company comes in to allow it to operate in the US I think it's going to stick around for a long time. I mean the president did Callan has also asked that Microsoft give money to the Treasury. If it makes this sale, we is anybody else interested in buying tiktok or is it just Microsoft right now? I don't think anyone else has come out as far as I'm aware and said that they are interested in purchasing Tik. Tok I think Microsoft even just recently confirmed that they were interested in this conversation, but it appears a deal needs to be made by September fifteenth. So if someone's going to buy it, it has to happen soon. Well you heard it here I guess I callan Rosenblatt is a youth internet culture reporter for NBC News Dot Com and Graham Webster is the editor of the digit China Project at the Stanford? University Cyber Policy Center and he's also a fellow
Will TikTok Be Banned In The USA? It May Depend On Who Owns It
"It's the shiny new thing in social media, and it's super popular with Generation Z. But the clock may be running out on Tic tac. See what I did there because the Trump administration claims it could be used for espionage. NPR's Jackie Northam explains. When you scroll through the TIC tac cap, There's a constant stream of lively music videos featuring teenagers and twentysomethings and lots of cute little dogs and sunglasses performing for the camera. But they're going to be some pretty unhappy young people here in the U. S. If the Trump administration gets its way. In an interview, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the U. S may ban the Chinese own TIC TAC because it views it as a national security risk, whether it's tic tac or any of the other Chinese communications platforms, APS Infrastructure that this administration taken seriously the requirement to protect the American people from having their information end up in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party. Tic Tac has been just really an uplifting thing for families. This is a company and an app that is meant for creativity and to enjoy that's Michael Beckerman, a vice president and head of public policy at TIC Tac US. He denies the Trump administration's charges and says there's no intelligence to be gleaned from the AP. Vic talk, like other social media platforms collects data on its users. But Beckerman says, Tick tock never has, nor will share that data with Beijing. We have very strong access controls to data our servers as I mentioned her in Virginia and the decisions on content and everything else or air made at the U. S level by our U. S leadership. The considerable Beijing Stealing data has been building for about five years. Ever since a cybersecurity attack on the office of Personnel Management when sensitive information of more than 20 million U. S citizens was stolen, Paltry Olo, who focuses on the intersection of politics and technology at the Eurasia Group. Scissor have been a number of similar incidents since Trio says the concern grew when China introduced a new national security law a couple years ago. And that law basically just says that companies individuals have to cooperate with the Chinese government when it comes to intelligence matters. It's very vague, though it doesn't say a social media company has to turn over all stated to the Chinese. Government, the Trump administration's effort to ban any Chinese equipment that could be used to steal sensitive data, trade secrets or intellectual property is picking up speed. That even includes thousands of surveillance cameras set up in government buildings and military facilities. Most of them are made by Chinese companies or have Chinese components. All those cameras have to be removed by August 13th. Hitting the deadline is absolutely going to be tricky. I mean, it's just it's like it's less than a month away. Catherine Gronberg is with Force Coat Technologies, a California based cyber security company. She says. It'll be difficult to replace the cameras. You know, the fact is, is that these markets are dominated in some cases by Chinese products, and in fact, we don't have alternatives that are either made by us or in the U. S. Or U. S Ally, Eurasia Group's trio, Lo says the movement against TIC TAC and other Chinese platforms and tech companies. Comes at a particularly turbulent time in U. S China relations exacerbated by the trade dispute and the Corona virus pandemic. It's a much, much broader problem that between the US and China that the tech companies are being dragged into You know, there's there's no trust basically, and the administration warns more Chinese made equipment or APS are in its crosshairs. Jackie Northam. NPR news
TikTok Tackles India App Ban, Vowing It's No Tool for Beijing
"Tensions have spiked between the world's two most populous nations. That would be China and India. The two countries share a border that extends for more than 2000 miles, and it was along that border that violence broke out. Last month, 20 Indian troops were killed. Now India has banned dozens of Chinese APS, including the social video APP. TIC tac. India has been tic Tac's biggest foreign market. NPR's Lauren Frayer has been talking with some of the Indians obsessed with it. When the Corona virus hit India, Sumit Jane was forced to shut the clothing shop he runs in his hometown in western India. Under lock down. He was bored and worried. Looking long thought intelligent. That damned ignominy. Tic tac is how I stayed. Sane says I posted videos every day, Good Tic Tac clip Jane lip synchs lyrics about the Corona virus. To the tune of a popular Bollywood song. Jane is a skinny 28 year old with a curly mop of hair, gold earrings and nearly four million followers on Tic Tac social video APP has made him famous. He starred in a music video and even got offers to be on TV that Ah, licking a musical gave a small town in hands like me used to have to move to the big city to get noticed, he says. Tic Tac lets us do that from home. Up to 1/3 of TIC Tac users are believed to be in India. They're the biggest group outside China. Some Indians have even monetized it selling English lessons on tick talk, for example. But this week, the Indian government banned Tic Tac, along with 58 other Chinese made APS amid tensions with Beijing. We the people of India, standing behind the government have the ability to hit China where it hurts. India's nationalist TV anchors applauded the move. Many Indians are outraged over China's killing last month of Indian troops. Some are calling for a boycott of all Chinese goods. The government is trying to tap into the national sentiment in sweeping India right now. Akil Berry with the think tank Eurasia Group, says the Indian government is concerned about data privacy on Chinese APS. It also wants Indians to develop Indian APS rather than using Chinese ones. But India's own tech start ups get a lot of Chinese investment, Barry says. When you take a look at India's unicorns startups that a valued at over $1 billion about 18 off the 30 of them have Chinese investment. So if Beijing retaliates and pulls Chinese investment That could hurt India even more, he says. Tic Tac says it's following Indian privacy laws and is asking the Indian government to reconsider. Meanwhile, in a small town in northern India, housewife Anita Meena has been posting videos to tic tac of herself doing folk dances and have gone viral. She gets recognized when she goes to her local market, she says. Tick. Tuck is banned. Mina says she'll focus on YouTube Instead, it's unclear how many of India's roughly 200 million TIC tac users will do the same if Lauren Frayer NPR
US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China
"States, saying it has revoked parts of Hongkong's special status. Under U. S law. Ed. It's all yours. And this looks like the beginning comes in the form of a written statement from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, saying the new security measures on Hong Kong that there's a risk That sensitive U. S. Tech could goto Beijing, he says an end a Hong Kong preferential treatment over China, including export license exemptions and some visas, he says further actions too deferential treatment are also being evaluated. So what's up with the timing? Well, Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer says things have not been going well for President Trump's reelection effort, so he has kind of grasp onto this one's going toe look, a scan that President Trump For whacking China over unilaterally changing the terms of Hong Kong special status of Hong Kong's autonomy. The Americans are changing the status here the Chinese are and the Americans are only recognized against. Security legislation in Beijing. Expect to be voted on later today
Oil futures point higher Sunday night after OPEC+ extends output cuts to July
"OPEC now the oil cartel held a meeting over the weekend the virtual meeting obviously we're decided to extend record cuts in oil production through July the idea of course being to keep oil prices up marketplace's Kimberly Adams reports the decision comes on the back of months of major volatility in the oil markets global demand for oil fell off a cliff as country after country locked down during the pandemic that's meant lower gas prices for consumers but a tough time for oil producers now that countries are starting to open up oil price trends are reflecting the change Robert Johnston is with the Eurasia group key parts of the world it's got it all traces back almost forty dollars a barrel and we had negative pricing for elite US will also come back a long ways so the question is ready go from here maybe not that far says Louise Dickson at restart energy she says oil's recovery will be slow and stunted by the sheer economic impact of countries and economies in GDP overall lower household spending left in this travel fewer people buying new vehicles and any recovery will also depend on what happens next with the
The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?
"We are in a recession like right now already thing is this isn't like the recessions we usually get were something wrong with the financial system or another part of the economy a problem it might take a while to fix right this is a pandemic a really fast moving pandemic that at some point is going to be over and that let us today to wonder how bad this recession might get how quickly it might pass and how long it's gonna take us to get back to where we were marketplace's Sabri Banna shore starts us off in one week jobless claims went from two hundred and eighty two thousand to three point three million one week that is how fast this economic downturn is happening but just because it is coming on quickly does not mean it will go away quickly the recovery is going to be staggered a sharp V. shaped recession doesn't seem likely says carpenter is chief U. S. economist at UBS securities as different parts of the country get hacked and shut down at different times the recession spreads out across time how much time welcome here says he thinks the lockdowns in the worst of the virus could pass by June but the economy we knew will not be waiting on the other side there are millions upon millions of Americans who have already and will have lost their jobs I suspect spending will be damped pretty dramatically for a lot of those people as they try to rebuild their lives the unemployment rate could fall somewhere between ten and thirty percent even people who don't lose their jobs may not spend the same way Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia group people are not going to feel comfortable going to concerts going to bars or getting on a crowded plane after nine eleven it took about two years for the truck to return to the pre attack levels here Norman bar this is chief economist of IHS Markit he says businesses like people will take on debt to get through this which will leave them much less likely to make big investments as some businesses go under supply chains will lose links we don't think will regain the pre opened nineteen levels of GDP for another two or three years so in two to three years the economy will be where it was a few months ago forget where we would have been had this pandemic not happened but despite that the US has one piece of advice this too shall pass one more time this too shall
Taking Stock of the Boeing Crash and Iran Missile Attack
"So that was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets. Wasn't it no sooner. Had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in if if it knows those things are coming then something came that. The market's somehow were not expecting there was the missile attack last night they not really too who belligerent statement from President Trump is morning and somehow everything was fine. We've called the. Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this. She is a longtime Middle East analyst. Also now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Amy Walkman program. Thank you for having me. Let's do a quick gut check. You heard this news last night. I'm sure you as as I and many other people check the futures market. What was your? What was your initial reaction? Well I think that it makes sense that the markets calmed down afterwards. Of course wars were were hoping for a peaceful outcome for conflict resolution. But I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long road a Ho. Oh here on a very long stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic. This is if I could if I could go to my Donald Donald Rumsfeld dictionary. This is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes. The president was moderately diplomatic today. But there's so much yet to come There's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now of course. Gold is also strong because these were expecting a U. S. China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end. I do think that that hefty gold price reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second. Would you kind of make sense that. It's down hard today. long-term though I know that all the analysts are saying long-term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geopolitical risk to be had we still have tremendous unrest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see oil. Workers decide that they're going to join the anti-government protesters protesters or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States are ran in Iraq and the United States quote unquote. Okay gets kicked out. You could see sanctions on Iraq soil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran. And that would be a logical next step if things break down or you condo by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying thing about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states that benefit now because we have so many states that are producing the didn't used to the oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt. The problem is you know you and I we might not take a road trip this summer. Summer oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American. Stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up and of course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States. Okay so short-to-medium-term. What are you watching? Well I'm watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East. I think that's a very major risk. I want to see that the U. S. China trade deal comes forward and what form and then I think the markets you know The Eurasia group which is a geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geopolitical risk in the world. Today so I do think the US election depending on which way it swings it could be a major feature in financial markets. So I think we have to watch that very closely.
"That was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets wasn't it no sooner had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in it if it knows those things are calm and then something came at the markets somehow we're not expecting there was a missile attack last night they may not really too belligerent statement from president from this morning and somehow everything was fine we've called Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this she is a long time Middle East analyst also now a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations Amy walking program thank you for having me let's do a quick got check your this news last night I'm sure you as I and many other people check the futures market what was your what was your initial reaction well I think that it makes sense that the markets calm down afterwards of course were were hoping for a peaceful I'll come up for conflict resolution but I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long row to hoe here on a very long and stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic this is if I could if I could go to my Donald Rumsfeld dictionary this is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes the president was moderately diplomatic today but there's so much yet to come there's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now course gold is also strong because we're expecting a US China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end I do think that that hefty gold price art reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second would you kind of make sense it is down hard today long term now I know that all the analysts are saying long term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geo political risks to be had we still have tremendous on rest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see or workers decide that they're going to join the anti government protesters armed or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States around in Iraq and the United States quote unquote gets kicked out you could see sanctions on Iraq's oil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran and that would be in a logical next step of things break down are you called at all by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states the benefit now because we have so many states that are oil producing the didn't used to be oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt the problem is you know you want a high we might not take a road trip this summer for oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up in the course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States okay so short to medium term what are you watching well I'm more watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East I think that's a very major risk I want to see on that that US China trade deal comes forward and and what form and then I think the markets you know the Eurasia group which is eight geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geo political risk in the world today so I do think the U. S. selection depending on which way it swings could be a major feature in financial markets also I think we have to watch that very closely your age group for co founder Ian Bremmer question your marketplace morning report all the time Amy Meyers Jeffery she's at the council of foreign relations in New York Amy thanks a lot appreciate your time your thoughts thank you
Trump: 'Ahead of schedule' on China trade deal
"President trump is in Chicago meeting with police chiefs today but on his way he told reporters that things are looking up for US China trade deal we're about I would say a little bit ahead of schedule maybe a lot ahead of schedule probably will sign it still this is Ian Bremmer he's founder and president of the Eurasia group so we're ahead of schedule it says Ian do we believe him in the sense that he's moving quickly to something he can announce sure we believe them in the sense that it's an actual deal that will bring the country's closer together on trade or technology or Hong Kong or South China Sea the answer is no the the Chinese recognize that the United States and from a particular under much more pressure than they were a few months ago given the economy softening given elections coming up and giving the growing impact of the trade war they're prepared to wait this guy out so what they have on offer is really exactly where they were several months ago it's buying limited amount of American AG in return for no escalation of of further terrorist and I don't think we are much more than that why would the Chinese be willing to wait and see what's behind door number two given what some of the democratic candidates for president and saying I haven't heard a lot of warm noises about China coming out any no that's true but they they do feel that trump is not to be trusted they feel them she is Jim paying has felt that he's given away a fair amount of political capital try to get a deal done particularly the Osaka G. twenty meeting this summer and it didn't work out for him and secondarily the fact that they don't believe that trump has a lot of ammunition left so it doesn't hurt the Chinese to play a waiting game it doesn't mean that the next president whether it's trump or whether it's a damn is going to be easy to work with but they do hope that they'll be more regularized more normalized relationship between the two and that's something the Chinese to prepare to wait on so we've been really consumed with things from all but Daddy's death in the raid to what's going on Argentine things like that so this may have missed the fact that China is having a little bit of a meeting right now going on the most import they have of the year the plan is going on how does present she go into that meeting what is his political support as it were with his own teeth between team I would say it looks like of the not very controversial I mean although a lot of people that are saying oh my god the Chinese economy is slowing that means we should expect to see big noises to see them stimulate the economy more insure this growth redouble efforts to expand employment they're not doing that they they feel comfortable going below six percent growth they feel comfortable with their present levels of corporate debt the allowing of some small number of organizations to go bankrupt but in a very regularized way this is not a country that feels like it is in any way in crisis mode if what what they're doing I would say is simply making sure that there's a conversation between those that want to have a harder line directly towards the Americans and those that want to see more reconciliation but this is not the kind of schism we've seen historically towards is it reform or is it you know retrenchment of state capitals in the torture an ism Shizhen pains way which is we're not politically reforming and by the way we're going to go our own way one technology it won't be aligned with the Americans we have our own way on architecture won't be alone with Americans that is a consolidated consensus view in China right now we will see that coming out of this planet part of president she's way which differs from the way of his predecessors really has been being much more bold in his language about the role of China in the world for many years we heard old we're not that big a country and yes this is a big prison she has a very different approach to were reports that some people with his own party were very concerned about that thought he'd gone too far too fast yeah I mean I like I remember when I was speaking at the Chinese embassy to the entire staff with the ambassador there in Washington and I was making the point that I thought your respective of what the Chinese government was doing on artificial intelligence that Shizhen pangs effort to say that we will lead the world by twenty thirty was a bad idea that that just P. R. perspective like why would you suddenly want that target on your back and get all these other countries including Americans focused on the fact that we've got a nascent real competitor that wants to knock us off in China and the funny thing was in that group and they were you know a hundred hundred fifty people there there were people actively I mean permanent staffers high level staffers of the Chinese foreign office vigorously nodding with that take so that there is a disagreement internally on how much the Chinese want to be assertive around this new found power in in in an environment where there's more of a power vacuum with Americans don't want to do as much when no one else is capable do the Chinese want to step up or do they want to still say no we're not ready for leadership we're still poor I think that the patriotism that she's in pain has been ginning up that we were a leading global economy until the nineteenth century the west took us over for a hundred fifty years and now it's our time again it works on the streets but it makes a lot of the leads in China deeply uncomfortable this is a president trump has been drawing back in various parts around the world and he's been very sort of a China when it comes to trade but he's made no secret the fact he doesn't want our troops in as many places doesn't wanna be asserting ourselves and say does that leave something of vacuum were encouraged prison G. in his direction well a bomb is done the same when we talk about how much Obama wanted a footprint in the Middle East and he was the guy that did the pivot to Asia didn't work out very well he's the guy that said I want to you know will surge in Afghanistan but we want the troops out we want to end the war in Iraq I think the thing that trump ads on top of that is his assertive indifference to long term American alliances and architecture that he believes those relationships are transactional and that provides a lot more space for the Chinese where they say you see this is the way it works you can't trust the Americans more than you can trust us all countries come out this only in terms of they're more limited national interest that provides more space for the Chinese to operate and it allows it makes other countries hard pressed not to hedge away from the Arab Americans in towards the Chinese who of course are writing the very big checks prison truck needs to get reelected next year he wanted very badly to what extent will he trim his sails and declare victory in retreat and what comes to US China trade he's already doing it I think that if you look at the and now instrument that he made a couple of weeks ago that you know fees a of the D. O. was already there when there was no such thing there was nothing sign comes because he feels a level of urgency why did he suddenly want to pull out the troops in Syria with such urgency what's he doing with the north Koreans looking for a third you know summit all around the world that's what you see from the president
Boris Johnson's plans for Irish border checks threaten Brexit talks
"Rex it now and the British prime minister Boris Johnson says the reality of brexit is that they will need to be customs checks on the island of Ireland after the U. K. these youth and Mister Johnson denies reports that the UK's proposing a series of posts close to the Irish border to carry out customs checks off the brexit the key issue of avoiding a return of a physical infrastructure on the border between the Republic of Ireland which is an E. U. member state and Northern Ireland which will leave the E. U. has its positive the U. K. is the issue that has vexed this country for months question by the BBC's Nick Robinson today the prime minister dismissed some of the reports about a possible hold border in Ireland yesterday at the suggested that there would be a string of border use not only are rich bold but not fall back are you saying that simply isn't true yes that's not what we're proposing a tool you can say. people who think there will be a whole a bold and just a few miles away from the apps in old absolutely you know and then there were very good reasons why that would not be a good idea and I think everybody who's familiar with the situation in in it are the norm now then comes time why we would would pay for but for for for for practical reasons and and also you know for for reasons of sentiment that we typically take the on the star wedding continued questioning about border posts on the Irish border the prime minister said there must be some checks so Minh autumn say there should be no checks anywhere on the island via the net they call the holding of the border they say it will begin to principles Good Friday agreement people say forget made the call to be check somewhere if we're going to be in a different economic arrangements well I'm with the second group Nick because that's just the reality and I think that what we're coming up to now is as it were the critical moment of choice for us as friends and partners apart how we proceed because in the end a sovereign United country must have a single customs territory and when the U. K. withdrawals from the E. U. that must be the state of affairs that we haven't but there are plenty of ways in which we can facilitate north south trade plenty ways which we can address the problem. the U. K. prime minister Boris Johnson speaking to my colleague Nick Robinson what a short time ago I spoke too much talk about Ron who is the managing director of the Eurasia group in Europe it's a political risk research and consulting firm only the U. K. site there is a a suggestion view the details have been leaked all redundant because they come from an old paper from a couple of weeks ago and actually the government is fully committed to also kinda border US possible not a string of customs controls and not actually more detail around these proposals is going to be forthcoming over the course of the next few days so distancing frankly the government's position from the details I will be yesterday now on the European side I think frankly the suggestions the details from yesterday have gone down very badly the Irish government is if if you thought these are essentially equivalent to the kinda plans they would be to implement in a no deal scenario so the idea that the Irish prime minister could sell these in a deal scenario is is friendly politically announced officer in Dublin and then of course the role of the questions and concerns the east side has been talking about for a very long time what's the border fully open that call be controls on the island the filing and all those problems remain so I think the two sides of very far pulse at the moment when you say that the U. K. is distancing itself from what has been leaked is there any suggestion that the leaks form the basis of what the UK government is actually thinking yes they do I think the starting position for the UK government now different to Theresa may is stop brexit create consequences and changes on the island of Ireland not least the return of the border. and what the government is trying to do with its proposal is to soften the border dot will necessarily return is a result of brexit to reason may and had to go she ate all the rope it's had a very different approach in December two thousand and seventeen they committed to essentially no change on the island lies in full status quo and the way they deliver thought was obviously through this box stopping the backstop is is the vehicle that delivers both regulate realignment but also a single customs territory. Johnson now once the U. K. to be in a single customs territory Northern Ireland England Scotland Wales and believe that is absolutely essential for state sovereignty for the U. K. after brexit but obviously creates a north south border albeit one not softened so so the acknowledgement on the pulse of the U. K. government on the Boris Johnson that they will need to be customs checks what is it that we are specifically talking about all the differences in terms of the kinds of goods that are being looked at is agriculture being seen as separate from manufacturing goods actually what's new about the leaks yesterday's more details about how the government believes the border will operate in a world where Boris Johnson delivers an agreement and ultimately a long term vision and the vision of brexit bodies I can tweak how the distal free trade agreement in that unit how does the Irish border operates and the U. K. believes that will need to be controls on either side of the border that regulate power it's not regulate things like rules of origin that there will be a degree of regulate tree equivalent. the European side has many problems with this I think firstly from that perspective you cannot separate how regulations and customs everything on the European side stall and works on the basis of its customs framework so in order for that to be any trade with the E. U. thank you I need to engage with the E. U. customs framework a second big problem is awful the government's proposals to work is very dependent on a lots of exemptions and it's not Claire the easier side is willing to make those exemptions third big problem is it relies on technology in the U. side but very clear about the kind of technology the government is talking about is not going to be ready until the medium term so this gives you a flavor of some of the ideas that are a problem for the ears site based on what the government's currently proposing and in terms of the bigger picture all of approaches and asks you choose we know that the E. U. side to saying that they're willing to continue to talk. since the patience is running thin that if you if you want to start from a base of zero and build something completely new there's very little time to do that I think really now the next few days absolutely critical to the government's plans involving away thought dork feels it can engage in it so I think what we'll see from both sides is this idea of a tunnel when negotiators are such begin a lock themselves away and trying to hammer out a legal text the ultimately results in a deal among European heads of state in a few weeks time at this October European Council so the next few days will give us a sense of whether a tunnel is a realistic possibility or not if it is in the terms of the deal in October increase but I think in order for it to happen Boris Johnson is going to have to be you pretty much fully towards the E. U. position which essentially means keeping all them island in the U. customs territory I think that's difficult for Boris to do. it was a much Tabarrok mon managing director for the Eurasia Group in
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Daybreak Asia in Bremmer, head of political risk consultancy, the Eurasia group, some new word now that the government headquarters will be closed today. And as mentioned, some of the key roads are still close. Some have been opened up. I was just out on queen's road, earlier and managed to get through quite smoothly to our offices here in central, but it will be difficult for people as they start to move on to work a little bit later this morning. As some of those streets still are blocked the chief executive as we've just heard here has apologized. And what really rankles some is that she's not also apologized for the police actions. And she still maintains that the expedition Bill is necessary. So it suggests that there's still a lot to play out here in the coming hours and indeed days here in Hong Kong. All right. We continue with our special coverage of the happenings here in Hong Kong. Let's a data check now what's happening in the Mark. With our Doug Christner. Doug, what he's seeing Brian. This is going to be the first opportunity for markets in Asia to react to a, a weakness in the US equities, we had some eco data here in the states, showing some resilience that seems to have undermined the case for a dovish turn by way of the fed one key question those policymakers meet this week in Washington. Will they avoid giving a clear, not the possibility of a rate cut ahead? That's the million dollar question. The NASDAQ composite the hardest hit in the Friday session, we were done about a half of one percent, the US ten year treasury last quoted at two point zero eight so that's where the action's going to begin in Tokyo in about an hour and forty one minutes from now. Still lingering the latest batch of China data industrial production at a seventeen year low in the month of may fixed-asset investment also below forecast on the other hand, retail sales of estimates. The offshore Chinese Yuan right now slightly weaker against the dollar not by much. We're at six ninety three one seven. And we're WTI crude oil is concerned, the active contract at fifty to sixty seven pushing up about three tenths of one percent or so that's markets. Let's get global news from Ed Baxter. All right. Thank you. Douglas protesters. Hong Kong still maintaining their presence in some major transportation arteries in the downtown area. Whether or not police will move in to move. The protesters out will have to be seen even with chief executive Carrie Lam withdrawing the legislation for extradition and apologizing. Protesters say she has to resign the government headquarters will be temporarily closed today. The US says it will protect shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf secretary of state. Mike Pompeo says the Trump administration is weighing options, Saudi Arabia's crown prince is not blaming Iran for last week's attacks on the tankers. While Boris Johnson refused. Take part in debate of candidates, Salih the Tory party. Jeremy hunt has stepped up and said he'd served Boris Johnson oily. If Johnson were prime minister Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Whose wife Sarah has been charged with misusing state funds and a fifteen thousand dollar fine. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg rish. Right. Thanks very much for that. Let's get to next it's it's a line. He Chen, Dr ten is a it's seventy two director of domestic policy studies there as well and the Hoover Institution research, fellow thank you for joining us. What are you making of events in Hong Kong of with us? Seventy two hours. Well, it's truly remarkable because they, you know, all all coming, so quickly after the thirtieth anniversary, of course of the tenement square massacre, and so much of this really needs to be viewed through the lens of, of how China wants to be perceived in the in the context of all of these different global factors. The US China continuing trae tension teaching Ping's own internal perceptions of his leadership in China. And of course, you know, Hong Kong has been the epicenter for efforts to demonstrate the value of democratic peaceful protests for well, these last several years so so so much of this, that scene in the in the context of the grayer questions, surrounding China, and we're trying to is currently on the world stage. You know when you look at Hong Kong, I it's quite a delicate, the balance of power because Carrie Lam felt bold enough us. Let's back up a little bit the protests that we had last Sunday of a million people. And then the protests yesterday were amazingly, peaceful. I mean just remarkable by by normal standards police referred to a riot. But you had people all over the city, and there was no looting absolutely none whatsoever. So those were peaceful, and, and yet, the chief executive was in bold enough on Wednesday to act as though this was going to be pushed through and the police then became quite aggressive in the protesters to. And then shortly after that, while you started to see the establishment politicians in Hong Kong turn. So it wasn't just the opposition. Now, it was the establishment politicians, no not in dramatic fashion, but enough so that a lot of pressure was put on, on Carrie Lam. And then you even had a meeting. On Friday in Shenzhen, where the mainland met with with Caroline and everything changed. So it shows you that people power is still very much alive here in Hong Kong. And you wonder how much China is concerned about that. Well, I think they're concerned about it. I think they're concerned about it for few reasons. First of all, you know, over the last several years, there have been a variety of efforts by the Chinese in Beijing to ratchet up pressure on Hong Kong, and, and this is, you know, this, this latest sort of incident, although clearly, the, the, the, the official line from China, still is that they are not intervening in, in what, what essentially is what they see to be Hong Kong matter. At least this is their public commentary. What is obviously clear that this is all part of a of an effort from Beijing to, to ratchet up pressure until Friday draw mainland, China and Hong Kong closer. And what you're seeing is a resistance from many in Hong Kong, not all, but many in Hong Kong, who don't like that. And obviously believe that when Beijing made it pledge in nineteen ninety seven. Have two systems with Hong Kong for fifty years, that they very much would like many in Hong Kong would like for that to be to be actually the cakes and, and you're, you're seeing this tension now then between what Beijing is trying to do. And what a lot of people on Hong Kong what they want, they want to seize that promise respected. And in some ways this latest discussion over the extradition law is, is part of the peace of Beijing, trying to turn up the temperature and they're being resistant for many. In Hong Kong. There is a buddy of thought, that, that's the duchy, Carrie Lam almost of second guessing Beijing. And she's one did come up with this legislation in order to prove that she was loyal subject, I suppose of the center, what's your thought on that? Well, I don't know. I mean some of it is needing to read what's happening on the ground with happening in Hong Kong. And obviously McLane is in a better position to do that. In a lot of ways, then Beijing. But the notion that she is not acting with, with some measure of influence, or or some measure of of control for Beijing. I think is, is folly obviously, I think she is still very much closely tied in responsive to Beijing one. But yeah, I mean, I think she is much more well positioned to determine what the best way is seed. And, and she also has to be savvy to that as well, in terms of understanding the conditions on the ground and something is not gonna move forward because of popular opposition and that type of opposition significant she's gonna be in the best position to read that. You know, it's such a blackbox inside the communist party on on. Why certain policies are enacted so with that meeting in Shenzhen, and then with, with Carrie Lam backtracking on this. Do you think this puts China in a more positive light does it put it in a in a stronger position negotiating with the US or a weaker position? What's your view? It's an interesting question quandary for the for the Chinese, I, I don't know that it puts them in a particularly weaker position. It's certainly doesn't strengthen their Schneider. I, I guess what I would say is that the challenge that China has he is really in my mind more directed toward towards Xi Jinping. And the question there is, you know what is the external perception of fees power base of the external perception of how much she has consolidated power in China? And does this cause people to question? Whether in fact, he is, you know, ever as much in charge as he was before there might be a tendency to see this as an example of a way in which power has degraded. I, I don't necessarily think that's accurate, though. But it is it is the case that everything that happens in, in, in Hong Kong, and everything that happens with respect to what she is done. Recently has to be seen through the lens of the ongoing tension between the US and China on trade and indeed, more broadly tension to the US China relationship, but, but this particular incident in of itself. I, I don't know that it affects too much the ability of can ping to, to get a deal done with President Trump or the view from the United States of China's ability to consolidate its own power. I, I don't I don't think there's a huge impact in that sense. The other thing is, of course that we had the Ninety-two act would between Hong Kong in the United States, which was also being dangled in front of the Carolina insensitive. It was perceived that Hong Kong's, autonomy, a diminished, then it could be treated the same as mainland China, and that will be subject to all the, the full effect of the trade will, how much do you think that concentrated the mind of the Chinese? Yeah. I think that was a factor. I mean, obviously, you know, part of this too, is that many in the United States have quietly, maybe some cases not so quietly begun to pull away from Hong Kong. We've begun to see that the writing on the wall as it were notwithstanding. All of it guarantees in all of the, the previous conversations about Hong Kong remaining distinct here in the United States, I can say this view is buying large that Hong Kong is has already moved and is continuing to move in a direction that at least for the United States, it's very difficult to distinguish between what happens in Hong Kong, what happens in China. And some of that has to do.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KCBS All News
"And for the first time the US is on the list at number five because of the investigations into President Trump and the possibility of a constitutional crisis number one on the list. Is what the group calls band seeds in Bremmer, president of Eurasia group and CBS news senior global affairs contributor. Join CBS this morning to discuss what made the list from the eroding relationship between the US and China too dangerous of weakening political institutions, let's start with bad seeds. Explain exactly what bad seeds are geopolitical climate change. It pretty much everything that we monitor geopolitically that matters in the world is presently heading in a negative direction. It's been twenty one years since I started the firm that's never been true before both domestically. The erosion of institutions the weakness of leaders in the United States across Europe in the United Kingdom and also all the major relationships in the world transatlantic US Russia China as well as within the Middle East. They're all becoming less sustainable, and when we usually have crises like after nine eleven the US came together the world came together support the United States, even the Russians did after the two thousand eight financial crisis the world came together. To dig out of a major recession if the next crisis, we have whether it's cyberterrorism or most likely the next economic slowdown. The world is so much less resilient and its ability to respond and these bad seeds are really undermining. Why is the world less resilient? It's less resilient because you no longer have the willingness of the countries to come together the populism nationalism. For example, makes it so much harder. You're gonna go into blames manship also the nature of the relationship within Europe. Europeans aren't coming together. It's every nation for itself, the Americans much more likely to blame the Chinese and vice versa. Not say, how do we work together to resolve this kind of the word risk is normally not a good thing. But there you are a number five with the United States in the from the domestic point of view, what making the list y very first time for the first time US domestic risk is there and give it keep in mind. The US is the most powerful country in the world. So it's not number one number two. Being number five means we don't think it's going to happen. But the fact is this is the investor. Negations are coming down against Trump against his family and against his business. And we know what Trump does when you threaten him and the things he really cares about he hits back and his willingness to go after the people that are threatening him and his interest and use the powers of the presidency in ways that perhaps go beyond the guardrails of what is considered legal in normal becoming going to the supreme court becoming constitutional crisis. I certainly believe that our court system is strong enough to bat Trump down if and when that occurs the weight has over the last two years, but you can't guarantee it so it has to be let's get your take on some of the big headlines for today. The president's national security adviser talking about no, we're not gonna pull troops out of Syria until we get an agreement by the Turks not to attack the Kurds. Yeah. Well, let's keep in mind that the US has two thousand special forces on the ground. It's very different than what you have in Afghanistan over ten thousand American listed men and women also the Russians the Turks the Iranians, they're the ones. That have determined the outcomes, politically and militarily in Syria, not the United States. We will lose intelligence gathering capabilities understanding radicalism in Syria. And in the region has blond the rest. You take the two thousand troops out. That's why for example, the secretary of state has strongly opposed. This withdrawal is also the Israel issue. Not yahoo. Elections coming up. He's really not happy with the idea that his buddy Trump is suddenly undermining him in his backyard. So I do suspect that pushback means that the timing is going to get muddy even more, Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia group and CBS news senior global affairs contributor talking on the CBS this morning program back to the future for the next generation train as we hear from CBS news correspondent Jim Chenevey. Back to the future for trains has more than one hundred locomotives are under development in the UK. Powered by steam, only know wood or coal needed these trains. Use hydrogen fuel cells to develop the St.. To create trysofi that drives the wheels. Excess energy is also stored. In lithium ion batteries, the trains, create almost no noise at speeds of up to ninety miles per hour. Jim Chenevey CBS news occurred. Ministration cabinet member has died. CBS news correspondent Pam Coulter. Reports former Defense Secretary and nuclear arms control, advocate, Harry Brown has died at age ninety one. According to the think tank where he worked working in the Carter administration Brown tried but failed to win Senate approval of a key treaty with the Soviet Union. The native New Yorker was the first scientist to take control of the military establishment Brown was a physicist who got his b a at age eighteen and doctorate at twenty two. Pam coulter. CBS news KCBS news time one thirty seven. Adopt US kids presents what to expect. When you're expecting a teenager learning the lingo today, I'm going to help parents translate teams legs. Now when a team. Says something is on fleet is exactly like saying. That's read simply means that something is awesome. Another one is totes. It's exactly like saving totally just shorter as in. I love going to the mall. In other words. You might hear is jealous. Joey is a shorter better way to say jealous as in khloe..
"eurasia group" Discussed on Newsradio 950 WWJ
"With NewsRadio nine fifty w w w j news time twelve fifty one. They are some of the biggest political risks this year. The Eurasia group says the US at home cyber attacks and bad Caesar a couple of the risks going forward in Bremmer president of the Eurasia group. CBS news senior global affairs contributor talked about the risks on CBS this morning. Let's start with bad seeds. Explain exactly what bad seeds are geopolitical climate change, pretty much everything that we monitor geopolitically that matters in the world is presently heading in a negative direction. It's been twenty one years since I started the firm that's never been true before both domestically. The erosion of institutions the weakness of leaders in the United States across Europe, the United Kingdom and also all the major release. Nations ships in the world transatlantic US Russia China as well as within the Middle East. They're all becoming less sustainable, and when we usually have crises like after nine eleven the US came together the world came together support the United States, even the Russians did after two thousand eight financial crisis. The world came together to dig out of a major recession if the next crisis we have whether it cyberterrorism or most likely the next economic slowdown. The world is so much less resilient, and it's ability to respond and these bad seeds are really undermining. Why is the world last it's less resilient because you no longer have the willingness of the countries to come together the populism nationalism. For example, makes it so much harder. You're gonna go into blames manship also the nature of the relationship with in your European aren't coming together. It's every nation for itself. The Americans much more likely to blame the Chinese and vice versa. Not say, how do we work together to resolve this kind of the word risk is not a good thing. But there you are a number. Five with the United States in the from the domestic point of view, what making the list y very first time for the first time US domestic risk is there and give it keep in mind. The US is the most powerful country in the world. So it's not number one number two. Being number five means we don't think it's going to happen. But the fact is this is the investigations are coming down against Trump against his family and against his business. And we know what Trump does when you threaten him in the things he really cares about he hits back and his willingness to go after the people that are threatening him and his interest and use the powers of the presidency in ways that perhaps go beyond the guardrails of what is considered legal and normal becoming going to the supreme court becoming constitutional crisis. I certainly believe that our court system is strong enough to bat Trump down if an when that occurs the way it has over the last two years, but you can't guarantee it so it has to be unless let's get your take on some of the big headlines for today. The president's national security adviser talking about no, we're not gonna pull troops out. Syria until we get an agreement by the Turks, not to attack the Kurds. Yeah. Well, let's keep in mind that the US has two thousand special forces on the ground. It's very different than what you have in Afghanistan over ten thousand enlisted men and women also the Russians the Turks the Iranians, they're the ones that have determined the outcomes, politically and militarily in Syria, not the United States. We will lose intelligence gathering capabilities. Betsy in Bremmer, the president of Eurasia group and CBS news senior global affairs contributor on CBS this morning. Well with the partial federal government shutdown dragging into a third week. Now, the White House says tax payers will have to worry about any delayed refunds partial shutdown is closing in on the record for modern funding. Lapses set in one thousand nine hundred ninety six twenty one days with tax filing season. Just.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KCBS All News
"Coming up on KCBS changing of the guard today as former San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom is sworn in as the state's new governor the US included a new international list, and it's nothing to brag about good morning. I'm stand bunker. I'm Susan Lee Taylor KCBS news time, eight thirty one CBS news update actor Kevin Spacey in a courtroom this morning and Nantucket Massachusetts plates charges that in the town of tuck it on July eighth two thousand sixteen did commit indecent assault and battery person fourteen or over the judge ruled today Spacey has to stay away from the young man, he's accused of groping back in two thousand sixteen and a bar. The Oscar winner did not enter a plea. He has said he intends to plead not guilty. There will be another court hearing in March. Tracy was quiet after court CBS news legal analyst Rikki claiming on the Spacey strategy. I think the defense strongest argument is that this was a consensual act by someone who was pretending to be of age. So that Kevin Spacey had reason to believe that all of this was a consensual encounter. It's the first criminal case brought against Spacey others have level misconduct allegations against him. CBS news update, I'm Steve Keva. KCBS news time eight thirty to Eurasia group's annual report ranks, the world's top political risks and their potential impact in Bremmer, president of Eurasia group and CBS news senior global affairs contributor joint CBS this morning to discuss the list from the eroding relationship between the US and China to the dangers of weakening political institutions, let's start with bad seeds. Explain exactly what bad seeds are think of it as GOP. Political climate change, it pretty much everything that we monitor geopolitically that matters in the world is presently heading in a negative direction. It's been twenty one years since I started the firm that's never been true before both domestically the erosion of institutions, the weakness of leaders in the United States across Europe and the United Kingdom and also all the major relationships in the world transatlantic US Russia China as well as within the Middle East. They're all becoming less sustainable, and when we usually have crises like after nine eleven the US came together the world came together support the United States, even the Russians did after two thousand eight financial crisis. The world came together to dig out of a major recession if the next crisis we have whether it cyberterrorism or most likely the next economic slowdown. The world is so much less resilient in its ability to respond and these bad seeds are really undermining why is the world less resilient? It's less resilient because you no longer have the willingness of the countries to come together the populism nationalism for exam. Apple makes it so much harder. You're gonna go into blames manship also the nature of the relationship with in Europe. Europeans aren't coming together. It's every nation for itself, the Americans much more likely to blame the Chinese vice versa. Not say, how do we work together to resolve this kind of the word richness normally not a good thing? But there you are a number five with the United States in the from the domestic point of view, what making the list why that's very first time for the first time US domestic risk is there and give it keep in mind. The US is the most powerful country in the world. So it's not number one number two. Being number five means we don't think it's going to happen. But the fact is this is the investigations are coming down against Trump against his family and against his business. And we know what Trump does when you threaten him of the things he really cares about he hits back and his willingness to go after the people that are threatening him and his interest and use the powers of the presidency in ways that perhaps go beyond the guardrails of what is considered legal in normal. Becoming going to the supreme court becoming constitutional crisis. I certainly believe that our court system is strong enough to bat Trump down if and when that occurs the it has over the last two years, but you can't guarantee it so it has to be on. Let's get your take on some of the big headlines for today. The president's national security adviser talking about no, we're not going to pull troops out of Syria until we get an agreement by the Turks not to attack the Kurds. Yeah. Well, let's keep in mind that the US has two thousand special forces on the ground. It's very different than what you have in Afghanistan over ten thousand American listed men and women also the Russians the Turks the Iranians, they're the ones that have determined the outcomes, politically and militarily in Syria, not the United States. We will lose intelligence gathering capabilities understanding radicalism in Syria and in the region Hezbollah and the rest, you take the two thousand troops out. That's why for example, the secretary of state has strongly opposed. This withdrawal is also the Israel issue. Not yahoo. Elections coming up. He's really not happy with the. That that his buddy Trump is suddenly undermining him in his backyard. So I do suspect that pushback means that the timing is going to get muddy even more that's Eurasia group. President and CBS news senior global affairs contributor, Ian Bremmer on the world's top political risks KCBS news time, eight thirty five. What if every time you went out you could cash in now with the Capital One saver card? You earn four percent cashback on dining and entertainment like learning. More about each other on.
U.S. Sanctions On Iran Could Impact How Trump Responds To Killing Of Jamal Khashoggi
"Support for this podcast and the following message. Come from the fresh market, offering prepared sides desserts in ready to heat meals for your thanksgiving celebration, plus fresh Turkey spiral sliced Honey ham and more details in recipes available at the fresh market dot com. More than a million barrels a day of crude oil have been taken off the global market. Thanks to the Trump administration's decision to sanction Iranian oil exports. The White House is looking to Saudi Arabia to help replace that lost oil, which means it's relying on the Saudis just as their countries implicated in an international scandal. NPR's Jackie northern reports. The US sanctions are intended to take a Ronnie and oil exports off the global market. The administration is even warning that countries that import Iranian oil could face stiff penalties that's causing concern about where they will get their crude in the future. Jeff shot is with the Peterson institute for international economics. And so as the United States official. Went around the world. Are you doing that countries should stop buying wealth from Iran, they had to as part of their argument ensure those countries that there wouldn't be an oil shock, and that prices would go up in those countries who would be disadvantaged in an effort to prevent an oil shock? The Trump administration is allowing several countries to continue buying oil from Iran for at least the next six months, and it's continuing to pressure other oil producing countries to make up the shortfall. And that's where Saudi Arabia comes in Saudi is the main country that uses looked words because only Saudi has significant spare capacity cliff Cup chin is the chairman of Eurasia group, a political risk consultancy company. He says Saudi Arabia is the only country that can easily ramp-up oil production. Adding an extra half a million barrels a day in short order more over the long term the administration felt confident Saudi crude could help avoid a disruption in the global oil. Market after the Iranian sanctions took hold. But that was before the death of journalist Jamal kashogi in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul Cup shin says now, the Trump administration is under enormous pressure to penalize the Saudi government for its role in kashogi staff league Shoji incident makes the Joe politics of this episode more complicated. The issue we're gonna see unfolding is sending an appropriate message that this is unacceptable without being so harsh as to Venezuela to the point where they say tack with us we're cutting production. That's the tight rope that were walking here. President Trump has threatened the Saudi government with severe punishment. If it's leaders order could show. Jeez. Death raising the specter of retaliation Saudi Arabia has used oil as a weapon before during the nineteen seventies oil embargo, but Rachel MBA. An adjunct fellow at the center for a new. American security says the Saudi government supports the Trump administration's tough stand on Iran and could use the bump and revenues from increased production. My view is that the Saudis are unlikely to use that oil weapon because their focus is so much on being a stable provider of fuel to the global economy. Now, they might provide it in smaller volumes or more delayed on they do it in less coordination with the United States. Either way. The Peterson institute shot says, he's not sure it's a good idea for the US to rely too much on Saudi Arabia's spare production capacity to make up for the Iran shortfall. He says right now supply and demand are balanced. But what happens if there is another emergency that takes significant amount of oil off the market, then we could have a different situation and a sharp spike in oil prices. So even savvy oil can't guarantee that prices. Won't rise. Jackie Northam, NPR news. Support for NPR and the following message come from Cirque du so lay crystal a frozen playground of world-class ice skating and stunning acrobatics. See it live at Capital One arena from December fifth and ninth. Tickets available now at Cirque du so lay dot com.
U.S.-China tensions derail Qualcomm deal
"Ten minutes, with a look at Wednesday traffic then at four thirty on, all things. Considered the president of the Iowa pork producers association will discuss the market uncertainty over tariffs in the very first segment of. Today's program again all things considered, starts at, four. Thirty, here, on key weedy FM eighty eight point. Five San Francisco and Katie we I- FM. Eighty nine point three north highlands Sacramento This is marketplace. I'm KAI Ryssdal continuing with at least part of the theme. Of the, program today that there seems episode seems to be. A step back in global trade tensions but some damage has already. Been done we present to you. Now, the American semiconductor giant Qualcomm the company had. Found itself in the crosshairs of the still brewing US China traits bad it's. Forty four billion dollar deal to buy a Dutch chipmaker having been approved by every relevant global regulator except China Beijing had been dragging, its feet for months on this thing and today Qualcomm said the heck with it and. Walked away you've been hearing talk about the non tariff ways China could retaliate qualitative is. The term of art yeah this is one of them from Washington marketplace's Scott Tong explains the Qualcomm cases already a lesson in uncertainty for American businesses if China's involve firms. Never, really know if their plans are going to go through and that makes companies risk averse, says business. Consultant Daniel Rosen at the rhodium group when a firm and, for For that matter all firms get, a irrefutable sense that politics is gonna. Play a huge role it makes them hesitant to make. Investments that they would otherwise make in this trade spat Beijing has vowed, non-tariff quote qualitative. Pushback what's, that mean well slowing up deals and licenses holdups at customs website blocking surprise safety checks it's all happened. Before June Blanchette Crompton group advisors American firms in China it's. Qualitative toolkit, is pretty robust and runs anywhere from shutting down. Your retail stores too much more complicated and costly measures in that. Is thrown a monkey wrench into. Your, incredibly complex supply chains but for China pushing. Too hard is risky it needs foreign investment says Michael Jackson at the Eurasia. Group to him scuttling Qualcomm deal undercut that argument and that's a message that goes out to the business community not just in the, US but in Europe and other markets and hurt hurts Beijing Credibility as a market Claire and a, rules based player. So this is really a test of whether China wants to, play business hardball it's certainly, knows how to in Washington and Scott Tong for marketplace.
Trump blasts NATO ahead of European visit, accuses allies of shortchanging U.S.
"Point nine fm w bb eb wbz news time five forty three now that he's announced his court nomination president trump heads to brussels today for what's expected to be tense talks with the nato allies this summit here with america's european allies comes just days after president trump asked this question at a campaign rally i don't know how much protection we get by protecting you mr trump has long complained the other countries in the pact aren't spending enough of their national economies on defense the nato partners come to this meeting angered that mr trump has hit their countries with steel and aluminum tariffs all of that is why ian bremmer cbs news contributor who heads the eurasia group is convinced it's going to go badly steven portnoy cbs news brussels all the latest in sports news with.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Said recently it's not banking on those deals going through as it plans its upcoming production we talked about how this was a big deal what about say german companies chinese companies what happens to them and their access to a and markets so we don't entirely know how us allies are going to react here leaders in germany and france and the uk they've been pressuring president trump to stay in this deal and perhaps they'll try and continue on without the us but even if those countries don't reimpose their own sanctions foreign firms are going to have a really tough time operating in iran if they they also want to interact with the us financial system that gives the us lots of power here i talked about this with cliff cup john he's chairman of the eurasia group and a longtime expert on iran countries can be political agreements they can agree to compensate companies that are hurt by us actions they can make observance of us sanctions illegal but the market's going to make these decisions not politics are not laws anything's firms in countries like the eu japan south korea ceo's and board of directors aren't gonna want to risk losing access view us financial system so they'll comply other countries maybe not so much i think the russians and the chinese well very likely ignore sanctions i think there's a reasonably good chance that the indians and the turks will do the same so cup john says there are ways that banks are companies can set themselves up so they don't depend on access to your financial system they can sort of operate outside the reach of sanctions so if there's winners in today's announcement it's those firms in say russia or china that will operate in iran despite the sanctions because yes iran's economy is going to be really hurt by these sanctions but there's there's still a lot of potential there.
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Property policies but in terms of what the us specific demands are i don't think they have a great understanding yet micro hurston with eurasia group in bremerton eurasia group is michael the first sentence of your resume says it all you're the us treasuries representative in beijing what would you brief secretary mnuchin on this morning as he enters beijing you're there you're in the trenches what do you tell your boss when he shows up in beijing my advice to him would be to really spend time carefully framing the issues for the chinese side where we are right now is you've got more voices in china that are viewing the us objectives here as about containing china's rise rather than a set of important trade issues and that's partly because of some of the actions that the us has taken against chinese tech companies so it's important to set out some clear lines for beijing what does the us trying to accomplish is that moving china towards more of a rules based trading system or is it a different set of concerns i think they need to understand that if they're gonna make progress on the issue isn't it to photo michael they want them to open up but they're also conscious of of what the chinese are doing with made in china twenty twentyfive and quite rightly this administration has their eyes wide open and they know they need to do something about it but that's absolutely right made in china twenty twentyfive which is the most ambitious of china's industrial policies is really at the heart of this and more broadly innovation and the and the relationship between innovation and national security is moving right to the center here so this is the first this this visit the section three a one investigation is really the first comprehensive pushback on me to china twenty twentyfive that the us are any of china's trading partners has launched how do they respond well so far beijing is digging in i think there's a sense in me just wait because the stereotype our listeners have certainly i do is they just go really let's have lunch i mean do they just do that i think there's some of that and in some ways it's becoming even more assertive in terms of digging in so over.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KCBS All News
"The resignation of house chaplain the reverend patrick conroy a jesuit priest ryan told members it was because of complaints conroy wasn't doing a very good job not because of pressure over his political leanings democrats tried and failed friday to pass a resolution to investigate conroy's departure the senate judiciary committee has moved to protect special counsel robert muller from the president by a vote of fourteen seven the senate judiciary committee approved legislation that protects special counsel robert muller from being fired by president trump but senate majority leader mitch mcconnell has vowed to keep the bill from getting a vote in the full senate mr trump has increased his attacks on the special counsel deputy attorney general rod rosenstein and the investigation into russian meddling in the two thousand sixteen election repeatedly calling it a witch hunt meanwhile a new report from the republican led house intelligence committee investigating the russia probe said it found no evidence the trump campaign colluded with russia but democrats say the committee didn't gather enough information or interview enough witnesses globalism in many ways it's the opposite of what the white house calls magnanimous ian bremmer president and founder of eurasia group explores it in his new book us versus them the failure of globalism ian i tell us what globalism is and is it dep globalism is this idea that you know we need to support policies that think about us in the context of one common humanity so free trade open borders on immigration the us and allies sort of sending troops all over the world to ensure stability and technology globally is going to sort of create great greater solutions for utopian future and it's not at all dead because it's doing very well in the united states in europe for you know sort of the top one percent for the for the political leaders the business leaders thought leaders mainstream media but as an ideology that was meant to bring along the rank and file of our societies its debt it's failed and they're really angry about it and that's why we elected trump that's why brexit happened in the uk it's why we see all of these movements against the establishment they're only picking up enforce across.
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"And so far as we've learned from the reporting from bloomberg's andrew bird and the pentagon's denied involvement and asked it france there are very few people who possess the capabilities to actually do this and it's remarkable that no one has yet come out and said that strike against surinam basis the surgical nature of this of any strikes is interesting i find it comforting mike allen over at axios axios speaks to two people you know well richard haas of the council on foreign relations and ian bremmer of eurasia group yeah here's embassador haas doing nothing now it'd be a moral and strategic fiasco doing something punitive limited or doing something punitive in big and that the president should drop his aim of getting out of syria and commit to a modest open ended presence those are three scenarios of embassador stuck bremmer eurasia group suggests order attacks on syria that are more expansive and the empty airstrip strikes last april the smart move is specially with the us and our allies would be make a true coalition after you and it wouldn't be hard to get france to lead along with the united states and we talked earlier this morning folks about france and their heritage in syria going back to nineteen sixteen nineteen twenty two or the us could unilaterally attack any syrian air base and bring in the united kingdom these these are ideas from two people steeped in this and the president of the united states is quite clearly defined where he puts his red line on all this tom because about a year ago to the day remember the united states fired fifty nine tomahawk cruise missiles at syria after poison gas attack that killed civilians so the united states certainly hasn't shown a lot of tolerance for chemical attacks in syria before and i would say it might be unlikely they will again worth pointing out the rush defense ministry this morning accusing israel of carrying out the right and as is custom the israelis have had no comment on.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Heo as he makes the transition from spy chief to the top diplomat mike pompeo has a remarkable resume top of his class at west point tank officer in europe harvard law school corporate lawyer successful businessman republican congressman from kansas in for the past year he's run the cia for president trump however he's never been a diplomat either by profession or temperament quite bombastic that plays well with trump but that doesn't necessarily support a balanced american national security policy ian bremmer runs the eurasia group which analyzes global politics is very much a hardliner on issues of national security broadly and he wants to be seen as making a mark for himself pompeo is called for ripping up the nuclear deal with iran he also took the unusual step of sending a letter of warning to the head of an iranian military force a group the us normally doesn't contact pompeo seems to enjoy bucking convention here he is telling story at the ronald reagan presidential library near los angeles what we were communicating to him in that letter was that we will hold he iran accountable for any attacks on american interests in iraq by forces that are under their control he refused to open the letter didn't break my heart to be honest with you pump aol also talks tough on north korea last weekend he told fox news.
"eurasia group" Discussed on WCHS
"A trump critic and head of the eurasia group was quoted in the atlanta journal constitution saying that trump deserves credit so far his plan is working brummer said quote i think north korea's openness in the olympics and summitry with south korea as well as the potentially direct talks with a us are the result of trump's approach and quote and since the colonel is away you get my take today and that is that the art of the deal is unlike it is never been before the us military at trump's direction has been planning since last year for a military confrontation with north korea i received information that medical corp personnel were tasked with planning for mass casualties scenarios where they can get supplies plasma and personnel into place to treat many wounded as possible in the event of fullscale war where population centers in the south come under attack on orders from kim jonghoon the planning is real the pressure israel but trump is left a way out for the north and one that could come with an unprecedented ending what i predict will come of these talks will be a negotiated peace with a short path to reunify occasion and denuclearization one where kim jong owned becomes a hero for his role in bringing peace to the korean peninsula growth to the north and prosperity for his people trump will guarantee woon immunity from being tried for crimes against his people and any other violations he will be given a political role and his fortunes will stay intact remember trump has done countless business deals in asia and this is just one more albeit with a life and death stakes where he will crafted deal wound can't refuse an option that includes certain death and destruction for north korea or option b one that strokes his ego raises wounds stature imbues respect and allows him to keep his creature comforts well taking away his nuclear toys going forward any delays on the part of the north could seal their fate and that of military action by the us as trump knows that time equals an increased risk for the us in the form of advancements in north korean icbm technology so he won't take stalling tactics for an answer the ball will soon be in wounds court but knowing trump it will be a big beautiful shiny gold ball that kim jong own can't refuse you heard it here first moving on n gadget has reported on a.
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Eurasia group president ian bremmer tells bloomberg president trump has a law riding on these stocks trump is going to stake more out the success or failure of his presidency on this deal and given the fact that north korea is one of the most intractable and dangerous problems me the world and that trump has no experience in this field it's a very dangerous say the news about the digital summit between president kim john huang has sent shockwaves through the air shockwaves to the us national security to date which has long been skeptical of north korea's intentions presidential meetings have typically been viewed as a tear it to seal a deal rather than to kicked off negotiations after word of the potential meeting equities in asia rose with south korea leading games lucelia sully has details from all hong kong for march singapore bureau building karen south korea rian stokes led the strongest performers the cost be finishing high by one point one percent xinjiang asset management selling bloomberg seoul's benchmark index could rise thirty percent if kim does give up his nuclear weapons dav related shares like hendaye elevators which gained 23 percent and tourism related stocks like hotel shilla which added eleven percent were among the best performers in h investment saying foreign institutional investors also clearly targeted south korean stocks during friday's session in singapore i'm juliette sali bloomberg daybreak juliette thank you me mile the bank of japan today issued its latest policy decision saying it will stay on course with its monetary stimulus program the boj kept yield curve control settings and asset purchases unchanged a move that was forecast by all economists surveyed by bloomberg here in the us investors who way to governments more lead jobs report due out at eight three this morning wall street time michael mckee as a preview from our bloomberg 991 newsroom in washington january's big jump at hourly earnings sent markets into a tailspin last month february may be more reassuring winter storms depressed.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KQED Radio
"To discuss is ian bremmer he's founder of the eurasia group a global risk consultancy so in what are you telling clients about the possibility of a trade war well for somehow and remember that the level of follow through and consistency from trump given history of tweets is uh less than consistent but uh there's no question that this is an issue that trump has been consistent on he's been looking for reasons to put tariffs more broadly against countries that the united states has deficits with and so absolutely this is going to be market negative but at the same time that we heard president trump tweeting about these new taxes on cars from europe we also heard some trump adviser who said that while countries won't be excluded from these tariffs some companies could apply for an exemption does that is your concern at all there were actual conversations between from st team and the canadians and the mexicans last couple of weeks where they were privately told that specifically friendly countries would be excluded from these tariffs and that's now change is enormous inconsistency companies aren't the ones that decide on trade policy internationally countries do so the fact that trump was some of trump's team might be talking about well there's some companies that are friendly that might not get the same treatment is not really going to change the attitude we see politically from the european union or from other countries around the world that would be make it up we affected by the imposition of these terrorist ian bremmer with the group thanks for chatting my pleasure and now let's see the numbers the dow jones industrial average is down forty points that's just a tenth of a percent the smp 500 is also off a tenth of a percent while the nasdaq is down twotenths of a percent last night frances mcdormand won the best actress oscar for three billboards outside ebbing missouri in her acceptance speech she encourage studio execs to finance projects directed by and starring women and then she said this i have two words leave with you tonight ladies and gentlemen.
"eurasia group" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Discuss is ian bremmer he's the founder of the eurasia group a global risk consultancy so in what are you telling clients about the possibility of a trade war well or somehow in member the level were follow through an from trump given history of tweets is uh less and consistent abroad uh there's no question that this is an issue to trump has been consistent gone been looking for regions too put tariffs more broadly against countries that but the united states has deficits with and so absolutely this is going to be market make it but at the same time that we heard president trump tweeting about these new taxes on cars from europe we also heard from a trump adviser who said that while countries won't be excluded from these tariffs some companies could apply for an exemption does that easier concern at all there were actual conversations between trump's treat team and the canadians and the mexicans last couple of weeks where they were privately told the specifically friendly countries would be excluded from these tariffs and that now change lives enormous inconsistency companies aren't the one that decide on trade policy internationally countries do so the fact that trump or some trump's team might be talking about well there's some companies that are friendly that might not get the same treatment is not really going to change the attitude we see politically from the european union or from other countries around the world that would be make it if we affected by the imposition of these tests what are you expecting intensive reactions from from china some other trading partners good the chinese have expected this i've sat down with chinese officials in the past couple of months and they absolutely have been prepared for specifically vis steel and aluminum measures and the response to chinese don't want to trade wars going to be very carefully calibrated with allies it is more problematic because they've all been concerned that the trump administration doesn't support multilateral trade he pulled out of the trans pacific partnership and so you know you have allies all over the world that have already been hedging away from the.
"eurasia group" Discussed on KQED Radio
"Business figures frankly he's also flamboyant that same and hinder sent a specialist on saudi arabia at the washington institute he says prince el will lead is also known for philanthropic works and for comfortably rubbing elbows with the world's movers and shakers he's just being a good example all for mountain saudi arabia and all of a sudden he fools from favor there's been no sign of el will lead since he was detained back in november as part of an anti corruption crackdown allison would with a consultancy company control risks says many investors in analysts are trying to figure out what's happened to him she says although leads company kingdom holdings offers no clues the official reaction from kingdom holdings has been to say that it's broadly businesses normal i don't know that a lot of people really believe that necessarily given that its largest shareholder has has not been heard from for several weeks at this point people are still trying to figure out why l was lead was detained in the first place a ham canal with eurasia group says el league may have got on the wrong side of crown prince mohammad bin salman who's trying to reform the economy and needs buyin from the business community kamal says our lead hasn't invested in ventures sponsored by the crown prince in the last few months although he has been supportive off crown prince mohamed than some reform efforts he has not put money behind where has mathis the washington institute henderson says saudi arabia's crown prince wants to oversee business decisions across the kingdom in his trying to consolidate power the crown prince is clearly not a person you want to get on the wrong side all it would be banned for your business unmarked will be bad for you alisyn would wyss control risks says for whatever the reason i will lead was picked up his continued absence is making foreign investors nervous investors are certainly concerned about where all while eat is it's certainly introduced a great deal of uncertainty for companies that have associations with him some of those detained have been released after paying a settlement the eurasia groups come out well says el will lead certainly has the money to get out of his gilded prison but may be digging in his heels i think it's to make point and also true to reach a deal that works for him.
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To the news desk these are mark mills with some of the top latebreaking stories mark thank you brian white house national security adviser h r mcmaster says read designating north korea as a state sponsor of terror is under consideration as president trump prepares to leave for it is 12 day trip to asia the us treasury department has cut off china's bank of dandong from the us financial system alleging the bank as a conduit for illicit north korean financial activity former australian prime minister kevin rudd now head of the asia society policy institute says there's been some recent intriguing communication between china and north korea possible sign of a thaw in relations and two suspected alqaeda militants have been killed tonight in a us drone strike in the central province of maariv according to the almaz star news website the airstrike targeted a vehicle in which the two alleged militants were travelling global news 24 hours a day powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists anamalous it more than 120 countries i'm mark mills this is bloomberg energy all right thank you so much for that mark well president trump is heading here to asia he's going to be visiting china japan south korea vietnam and philippines that one country i think as can be top of mine for everyone his north korea or joined right now in our hong kong studio by madera's he's managing director in practice head asia eurasia group what do you think we're going to get out of president trump's will fundamentally president trump's trip is about trying to reassure the region that he actually cares about asia and also that he has a strategy i think he's going to be challenged on both fronts because fundamentally what he wants to talk about is north korea north create a north korea and do a couple trade deals because that always looks good north korea's gone kind of quiet here in the past two to three weeks some would attribute that to the communist party congress in beijing but perhaps others have a different view what are you guys saying at the eurasia group well we think is that kim jongun right now is preparing to conduct a full or is on.
"eurasia group" Discussed on Marketplace All-in-One
"Ian bremmer president and founder of eurasia group global political risk research and consulting firm in thank you not phone let's do the numbers the 100share index in london his up let's see here a tenth of a percent dow s p and nasdaq futures are reach up twotenths of a percent plus thirty eight points was the dow future as a guide to interest rates the 10year treasury yield is up this morning two point three eight percent on the week we should learn who will the white house pick for chair of the federal reserve house republicans were scheduled unveiled their tax bill tomorrow down will go taxes up we'll go other taxes and it's possible the whole thing could add up to one and a half trillion dollars to the federal deficit over the next decade republicans in congress pave the way for this approach last week with a joint budget blueprint and recommends big cuts to among other things healthcare spending marketplace's aaron schrank reports although the budget bill doesn't address tax cuts directly it indicates how republicans may pay for them says aviva erin dine at the center on budget and policy priorities it would reduce funding for the affordable care act and medicaid adding the combination of the program if they 13 trillion dollars over ten years and the budget i had prepared had medicare to the tune of four hundred and seventy three billion medicaid provides coverage for people with low incomes including many families with children aaron dine who worked for health and human services under president obama says forty percent of medicaid spending is for seniors and people with disabilities carries no weight hugh tapping cut medicaid without hurting there's grave federal health care spending is projected to keep growing by more than five percent a year dana goldman at u s sees schafer's center for health policy and economics says there are ways disband more efficiently there's no need for it drastic cuts.