31 Burst results for "Eurasia Group"

"eurasia group" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

04:20 min | 3 months ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Bronco in New York the world in very likely Russia's Vladimir Putin was surprised if not amazed how Europe generally pulled together to respond to the invasion of Ukraine There's a new book out today from a hard nosed geopolitical risk analyst who says that cooperation can fix our biggest problems in bremmer president of Eurasia group lists those problems as global health emergencies the climate crisis and the rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence His book is called the power of crisis in David always good to talk to you All right some interesting examples right Here in 2022 of people coming together cooperation across national barriers and one of your inspirations here is cooperation between two people one still with us one no longer president Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev the former Soviet leader He never thought they would come together but look what happened Look what happened the first time they actually met in Geneva Reagan had asked Gorbachev It was kind of a strange question He said if we were attacked by aliens you defend us right And Gorbachev said yeah sure And Reagan said well I would too And the funny thing is that actually it was a breakthrough moment for arms control for a world where we were facing weapons of mass destruction and we had the Cuban missile crisis And when you think about climate change today when you think about the pandemic today you recognize these aren't national challenges These are fundamentally global challenges but in an environment where the politics both inside our own country as well as globally are so deeply dysfunctional And it's the crises themselves that are creating the momentum for breaking through these difficulties You point out I mean this can't just be driven by goodwill and good intentions We may need some more international infrastructure Well it's not that we need more We need them to be different I mean the reason why our international institutions work so badly right now is because they're outdated You know one of the things that I remember when Trump got rid of nafta and created the USMCA it was the Mexico Canada agreement It was one of the smartest things he did because the old nafta agreement which was a fantastic trade agreement when we had it by the time Trump became president wasn't even reflecting 50% of our trade because it became mostly services and data Well that wasn't the nature of the trade relationship 40 50 years ago but it is now And so you needed a new institution That's what we're looking at globally We don't have architecture to respond to artificial intelligence challenges You need a world data organization for that The World Trade Organization won't do that We don't have big organizations that are in place that allow us to respond to the pandemic The WHO was way too small way too weak So you have to actually create this architecture So what jump starts the actual process of doing that I mean look it starts with your book but what do we got to convene a global conference or something Well the pandemic made a big difference Europe is a lot stronger coming out of the pandemic as the EU than it was coming in That's because they recognize that COVID-19 couldn't you couldn't respond to it as individual European nations The climate change is doing that And what's interesting is the United States and China the two largest emitters aren't the two leaders in responding to climate change But a lot of young people around the world are demanding that change Banks are deciding that in ten years time we won't make any money if we invest in fossil fuels so they're moving away from it And that in turn is forcing corporations to make a difference And the Europeans and the Japanese and mayors and governors in the United States and suddenly you have enough investment at scale that you can see a pathway towards a world in the next generation where a majority of our energy doesn't come from fossil fuels That's an extraordinary thing to be able to say And it's come as a consequence of this crisis The Eurasia group's founder and president Ian bremmer his brand new book is called the power of crisis a three threats and our response will change the world Ian thanks David good to see you Stocks are pointed up Dow features up 364 points 1.1% S&P futures up 1.4% NASDAQ futures F 1.7% now Home Depot stock is up three.

bremmer Gorbachev Reagan Vladimir Putin USMCA Eurasia Mikhail Gorbachev Ukraine Ronald Reagan Europe Russia Geneva New York COVID nafta David Trump World Trade Organization Mexico
"eurasia group" Discussed on TIME's Top Stories

TIME's Top Stories

03:18 min | 6 months ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on TIME's Top Stories

"If they are negative, then athletes coaches media and other staff will remain in a pseudo bubble for their entire stay. They may only use dedicated transportation and dine in designated restaurants. Everyone will be tested daily and expected to isolate immediately if they test positive. No one can leave isolation until they test negative twice within 24 hours in between. These measures aren't foolproof, however. It's not clear, for instance, whether local volunteers and support staff for the Olympics, bus drivers, food service personnel, healthcare workers, performing the testing, will also be required to remain within the bubble, or whether they will be allowed to return to their homes each evening. The bigger the bubble, the more opportunity you have for something to go wrong, says Tarek Kirk sell senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins center for health security. And it's more difficult when you have something so transmissible like oh Macron. There's a lot at stake for Chinese officials, both politically and from a public health perspective. Their management of the pandemic will inevitably be compared with the way the Japanese government handled the Summer Olympics just 6 months ago during which 865 reported cases were associated with the games. If major outbreaks occurred during the Olympics, it will be very public proof that a zero tolerance approach even a dynamic one is not the most effective way to control transmission. Even if China's zero COVID policy succeeds at keeping Olympics visitors safe, this approach has potentially dire downsides for the overall population in the long term, including a lower level of immunity to the virus. Once locked down are eventually lifted, people could still be vulnerable to infection and more concerning, serious disease. While 87% of the Chinese population is vaccinated, this high rate may not confer as much protection as it suggests. Recent studies show that one of the most commonly used Chinese developed vaccines did not produce enough antibodies to neutralize the omo crot variant in lab studies. As a result, some experts predict that reaching herd immunity in which most of the population is protected, either by vaccination or by having been infected with COVID-19, will be much more elusive for China than many other countries. Because UM tends to cause less severe disease in vaccinated people, some experts say it could help some populations in which it circulates widely to reach herd immunity more quickly. And hopefully, with less disease and death than could be expected from previous variants. From that perspective, stamping out the virus wherever it flares up might provide a temporary, though costly and labor intensive solution, but not necessarily a long term or durable one. In a recent report, the risk assessment firm Eurasia group whose president writes a column for time, warned that China's policy will fail to contain infections, leading to larger outbreaks requiring intern, more severe lockdowns. A Macron's stunning ability to spread so quickly and efficiently will pose obstacles to China that no other Olympics host country has faced. With such a high level of transmission even rigorous testing could miss cases that spark outbreaks. A Macron is the ultimate challenge to.

Olympics Tarek Kirk Johns Hopkins center for healt Japanese government Summer Olympics COVID China Eurasia group Macron
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:54 min | 9 months ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Virus Plus Ian bremmer of the Eurasia group looks at the global impact But first we hear from the Doctor Who's been on the front lines in the battle against COVID-19 from the beginning Doctor Anthony Fauci director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases We know that it's here in the United States Which I actually you know not wasn't anything brilliant on my part but we predicted that when you see it spreading throughout countries in Europe and Asia obviously you're going to see it here in the United States The real big question that we don't know now is how is it going to fare in a world and the world being our country in a world in which Delta is the dominant variant That's going to be a very interesting situation to watch All the way back on Monday you said as you suggest you know it's going to come the United States You were right Let me ask you a different question Community spread Is it inevitable at this point Do we already have community spread in this country Because that may affect questions of travel restrictions right We absolutely have community spread in this country We have community spread with the New York Minnesota case Where someone was in Minnesota went to a conference in New York Got infected and people with whom he had contact with also got infected We don't know how many of them but there's no doubt that this community spread What is the timeline on finding out the clinical effects of this Because when we talk to people on Monday they said about a month We should have a better sense of the clinical effect How severe it is How contagious it is Is that still holding because I saw some reports that maybe it's going to take longer No I think you're going to get an inkling of it within a period of three weeks to a month And you're going to get a very good determination of it a little bit longer But you can sort of get a hint of what's going to be coming out in about three weeks or so Talk about treatments because we have a couple of treatments One from Merck one from Pfizer that once somebody as I understand has the disease in the early stages you could take a pill as it were When will we have approvals do you expect of those Therapeutics Well the FDA is given an emergency use authorization to the oral medication from Merck The mound Napier the Pfizer one is being submitted for consideration for an emergency use authorization It's going to be a combination of getting authorized but also making enough product to have an impact And that's the other important issue is what is the scalability of these medications So Doctor Fauci let's turn now to what our possible defenses are here You said getting vaccinated boosters number one defense But obviously testing and sort of having intelligence as it were about where this disease is is children helpful we heard that President Biden was tested I guess three times for COVID because he had what he called a frog in his throat What are we doing on testing And are these rapid tests really that accurate Well the rapid test of fundamentally antigen tests they are not as sensitive as the PCR test But if you do them frequently enough the lack of sensitivity or relative sensitivity is really overcome by the fact that you ultimately will get it Get it being make a diagnosis if you test enough More than just once And that's the reason why when you talk about doing it you want to do it not only it may be a couple of days in a row but a day every other day something like that But they are very very useful Because even though they aren't as distinctly sensitive as the PCR they're ready availability Their ability to quickly get an answer and to do it very often because of the quantity of them that makes up for the relative lack of sensitivity I'm sure no test is a 100% effective There's always some margin for error if I can put it that way in a test If you can compare PCR on the one hand with the antigen and the other what is the difference What's the degree of difference in the two And is there a bias toward false positive or pulse negative When you have a less sensitive test the likelihood of there being a false negative is there much more so than PCR PCR is highly sensitive Sometimes that sensitivity can give you a false positive But most of the time the sensitivity and the specificity are very good for the PCR They're rapidity with which you can do the antigen is a great advantage But because it is not as sensitive you could get what was called a false negative Namely it's there but it's in low enough concentration that the antigen test does not pick it up That would be considered a false negative Doctor Fauci you have said repeatedly the best defense is to get vaccinated And if you've been vaccinated then get boosters But let's talk about a segment of the population that can not get vaccinated right now And that is the under 5 because I'm hearing from a lot of parents I suspect you are as well A real eagerness to have that possibility Where are we Well we've done to test during in the process of testing kids from 5 to two years old and from 6 months up to two years Those tests are ongoing right now We likely will get an answer in the sense of getting enough data to evaluate it by the first quarter of 2022 When the FDA approves that I can't say because I don't want to get ahead of the FDA but when you're dealing with children that young there's always an extra degree of care and sensitivity to the vulnerability of children So we'll have enough.

Ian bremmer Eurasia group COVID United States Anthony Fauci National Institute of Allergy Merck The mound Napier Minnesota Pfizer President Biden Fauci New York Asia Merck Europe FDA
China Economy Grows 4.9% as Rest of World Struggles With Coronavirus

Morning Edition

04:07 min | 1 year ago

China Economy Grows 4.9% as Rest of World Struggles With Coronavirus

"It's economy grew 4.9% in the latest quarter. It may be the on ly major economy to expand this year, having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's Emily Thing has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon visit Finova's assembly lines in southern Georgia on problems, various machine presses and quality control machines clack away that kind of sounds like a nine inch Nails song. That's Jen Ambrose, one of the engineers Finova, which makes rare earth magnets, the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iPhone. Finova, like the rest of China is backto work, Construction, manufacturing and automobiles are all booming. And that's good business for the Nova, which mostly cells to North American car plants. Here's Vice President Chirac. There goes me with short hair. You mean elimination time consumer demand is down. But because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America been stocking up on our components. Back in February, sweetie, it got production going in the middle of China's outbreak. He had to negotiate with dozens of villages to let his workers that have locked down and come back to work. Pressure to keep supplying his multinational clients was huge. You know, it was like a war, our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks, and so, economists estimate China's yearly GDP growth could be north of 2.5% this year, even as the rest of the world's economy will shrink by at least 4%. Differential will give Chinese companies more market share in greater economic influence from what global steel production dropped. So China share of production can only rise I estimate this year, China will be at 60% of global steel production. This's leasing Trump, the president of a state industry group in June and July, Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy is recovered earlier in Faster than that of others, including the U. S economy, Its trade surplus this year will widen even more. Michael Herson, China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long running accusations China benefits more from the global economic order the fact that China is back up and running smoothly and in fact, some evidence against that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for US policymakers in particular. Last year, a trade war in a difficult operating environment led some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out. But this year, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's latest survey found more than 78% of respondents. Has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that COS. Now are dealing with a global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking So Rosie right now, China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's hallway and economics analyst at Beijing. Research from Gavin Cal Dragon Onyx overall is deal on investment from a story and where will have seen what's left behind is mainly the consumption especially for the working people related consumption, meaning there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. Consumer demand has been weaker. And unlike many countries, including the U. S. China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic That could further throw supply and demand out of sync because the quality will widen again and will weigh down the consumption growth. But for now, China is doing all right. Question is how long it can keep it up. Emily Fang NPR News Joe down China

China U. S. China Vice President Chirac Finova North America Emily Thing NPR American Chamber Of Commerce Georgia Jen Ambrose Emily Fang Director Shanghai Eurasia Group Beijing Gavin Cal
China's Economy Bounces Back As Pandemic Is Brought Under Control

NPR's Business Story of the Day

04:07 min | 1 year ago

China's Economy Bounces Back As Pandemic Is Brought Under Control

"China announced today that its economy grew four point nine percent. In the latest quarter, it may be the only major economy to expand this year having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's emily. Chang has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon, I visit Novas assembly lines in southern showdown province, various machine presses, and quality control machines clack away kind of sounds like a nine inch nails song that's Jen Ambrose one of the engineers from Nova which makes rare earth magnets the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iphone Senova like the rest of China is back to work construction manufacturing and automobiles are all booming and that's good business for the Nova which mostly sells to North American car plants. Here's vice president share your. Show for your meal your woman from town consumer demand is down because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America I've been stocking up on our components back in February of yet got production going in the middle of China's. He negotiate with dozens of villages let workers at of lockdown and come back to work. The pressure keeps applying as multinational clients was huge. It was like a war. Our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive. Testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks and so economists estimate China's year GDP growth could be north of two and a half percent this year even as the rest of the world economy will shrink by at least four percent. That differential will give Chinese companies market share in greater economic. Influence. Global Steel production dropped. So China share production can only rise. Estimate, this year China will be at sixty percent of global steel production. This is leasing trump the president of estate industry group. A in June and July. Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy has recovered earlier and faster than that of others including the US economy, its trade surplus, this year will widen even more. Michael. Hurston China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long-running accusations. China benefits more from the global economic order. The fact that China is back up and running smoothly, and in fact, some evidence suggests that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for us. Policymaker isn't particular last year a trade war in a difficult operating environment. Let some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out but this year the American Chamber of Commerce in. Shanghai's Lee. Survey found more than seventy eight percent of respondents has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that companies now are dealing with global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking. So rosy right now that China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's Hallway Economics analyst at Beijing Research from Gavitt Kalganov. Six overall is still investment dramatic story and we'll we'll have seen was lagging behind is mainly. Especially for the working people related consumption meaning, there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. The consumer demand has been weaker and unlike many countries including the US China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic, and that could further throw supply and demand out of synch because the equality will widen again and we'll way down the consumption growth but for now, China is doing. All right. The question is how long can keep it up. Only thing NPR news jobs young China

China NPR United States North America Chang Vice President American Chamber Of Commerce Jen Ambrose Shanghai Eurasia Group Director President Trump Hallway Economics Hurston Michael Gavitt Kalganov
When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

The Takeaway

13:57 min | 2 years ago

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

"Since its debut and twenty seventeen, the Chinese APP tick tock has become one of the fastest growing social media tools with more than eight hundred, million active users. The APP lets users make short videos that are often shared across the Internet, but Tiktok isn't all fun games for months. Now, a lot of the attention about the APP has been focused on the national security concerns and the collection of user data, and as a result, the platform has been banned in India, by multiple branches of the US military and by Wells Fargo employees most recently however, president trump took aim at tiktok himself by threatening to ban the APP. We're looking at Tiktok we may be banning TIKTOK. We may be doing some other things, a couple of options, but a lot of things are happening. So we'll see what happens but we are looking at a lot of alternatives with respected dictum. Those remarks were before reports surfaced that Microsoft was pursuing a deal to buy TIKTOK in a press conference at the White House yesterday president trump claimed Microsoft or any other company would have to wait until September fifteen to acquire the APP and would be expected to give a percentage of the profit from the sale to the US Treasury. Joining me now is Graham Webster editor of digit China Project at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and a fellow at New America Graham thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me. And Cowan Rosenblatt is a youth and Internet cultural reporter for NBC, News. Dot Com callen thanks for being with us as well. Glad to, be here. Cowen who is the average tiktok user? The average tick tock user really is is a dynamic question because there is a huge range of different people who are using the APP but I'd say the most common person you're gonNA find is someone who is either at the tail end of high school or College who is definitely a solidly in generation the Gen Z. and he was using me APP mostly for fun to do dance challenges trends an engaged with communities that serve to their world. Graham. All of that sounds pretty basic I mean it doesn't sound like there's anything to be concerned about so far what type of data does tiktok collect from its users Graham? We'll TIKTOK is like a lot of social media companies these days It's using an AI driven or machine learning driven algorithm to figure out which content to to individual users. So to get this accomplished, they pay attention to obviously whatever you post that also you know what posts on your feed you look at how long you look at them where your device location is They also tried to track individual users like many apps do by looking at things like screen size and operating system and of course, they have a fair amount of information about your social graph, your your connections to friends and other people that you follow. And so what were some of the concerns around the data collection that way Graham given that it feels like there's a lot of, as you mentioned, other social media platforms and advertisers and the like that are tracking everything that we do already. Why? Why is Tiktok being highlighted here and banned in some of the institutions that we mentioned at the top Well, the basic reason is that tick tock is owned by a Chinese company named Bite Dance and they're a fairly new social media company. They had a breakout a few years ago in China with an APP called junior Tokyo that that is a you know an algorithm, IQ news feed and this is China's first big breakout internationally in terms of social media APPS and really getting take-up in in many different countries around the world not just the United States. So there's A concern that data collected by Tick Tock could end up in the hands of the Chinese company or the Chinese government and wild tick. Tock says that it stores all US user data in the US or in Singapore we don't really have a good way as a society right now to check that type of thing and to make sure that companies commit you when they commit to you know storing data and the Safeway making sure that they're actually doing that. Doesn't sound like we have a lot of that in the United States either though Graham. I mean, we have constant security breaches left and right Right. Well, the United States doesn't have a central data governance or data security or privacy Regulatory System the most prominent example of one globally as Europe, which has the general data protection regulation called the GDP are, and that governs things like when an apper services going to collect your personal information they have to gain certain types of consent and follow certain types of rules and there's also kind of limits the. Idea that if you collect data for a certain reason that you got consent for you shouldn't be able to use it for other reasons and that type of governance is just not that prominent in the US partially because the big US social media companies are not especially keen to have their practices heavily regulated they. They find GDP are in Europe to be burdensome and You know get in the way of making money. Kalland back in June president trump organized a rally in Tulsa Oklahoma and rumor has it that tiktok users promoted buying tickets for the event and didn't show up so that the event would be empty. What do we know about how that rubbed of the administration? So, what we know is it seemed to sort of frustrate the administration. Now, there's no evidence that the Tiktok users and K pop stands who are fans of Korean pop music that they had any impact on turnout. We are going through a global pandemic. There are a lot of factors going on right now. So it is really hard to know sort of what that impact was. But what we do know is it likely inflated expectations for turnout. The administration was planning to have a second rally after the main rally in Tulsa. which they then had to cancel, and so we think that it really messed with them. It was a it was a real genuine troll on the part of these tic TAC users against the president, and it really seemed to rub him the wrong way and there are lots of Tiktok users young first time voters who are telling me that when trump said, he wanted to ban this APP that was a retaliation for what they did the stunt they pulled the prank they pulled in Tulsa most what they think is happening. That's what they think is happening why there is no evidence that that's the president's line of thinking but that's what these eighteen to twenty two year olds are telling me that that's their beliefs. Cowan, we talked about The you know whether or not talk users actually had any effect on the trump rally in Tulsa back in June but more more directly here wondering if you're seeing any more political movement on the APP, whether it's a pro trump or pro biden or anti-trump anti, Biden has it started to move away from dance and song and move towards more political leaning so far. It can do both things at once actually. So there are still the dance trends. There are massive accounts that are just enjoying music on the APP but we see a lot of politics on Tiktok now maybe more than ever some young people are telling me they feel that because their home in quarantine and because politics ramping up nationally as we get closer to this election that they're seeing more and more politics in their feet, and what we're seeing is a not so much pro by content, but a lot of anti-trump content and I WANNA be clear. There is Republican Todd Democrat tiktok liberal Tick Tock conservative Tiktok. But what it appears to be is a lot of generation. Z.. Has a anti-trump sentiment and that does not mean they heavy pro biden sentiment. But things that we see our young people say, Hey, on this day, everyone go to president, trump's campaign store and put these products in your cart. But don't check out because allegedly that messes with their inventory or everyone on this day go to president trump's twitter account and report account, and let's see we can get a taken down. So we're still seeing these sort of organized movements sort of Troll, the president and a lot of discussion of politics but whether or not that is in in favor of vice, President Biden or in favor of president trump is sort of yet to be seen. Graham LE. Let's talk a little bit. But I mean, it sounds like tiktok users are for the most part having fun on the site sort of trying to do the things that Collina's talking about here but. On a more serious note, the trump administration has been trying to ban the APP. They're citing national security concerns, concerns over censorship by the Chinese government. Valid are any of those concerns really given what you know about China US politics Well I think it's you have to separate them out So the the concern about censorship I think is legitimate there was there was an example a little while ago where it looked like some of the censorship that they would do in China restricting conversations about things the Communist Party doesn't like discussed had bled over into the international product Now, Tiktok said that they were addressing that wasn't intended again, we don't really. Have a good way in the United States to check up on that and to kind of make sure that speech isn't being censored one way or the other the national security issue I think requires a lot more imagination Now, you know as was mentioned, the the military has has told service members to not use the APP and I think that makes a good amount a sense you know if if you're concerned about an APP Having links to a potential adversary There's all sorts of possibilities of ways that it could be exploited even just using location data of of service members or people who work in sensitive facilities. But if you don't work in sensitive facilities, if you're just sort of going around and and and doing the fun things and engaging in some of the political discourse that Cowan was mentioning you know there's not. A real big national security issue there a I will say that some people think that collecting the full aggregate totality of US Tiktok users could be used later in a analysis to try to do something, but it's really imaginative at this point whereas I think the censorship concerns a real and could be checked on and data privacy concerns are real but should be able to be checked on as well. What about the fact that we we just heard from Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group in the previous segment talking about how the United States is viewed internationally in terms of our response to the corona virus. But I did ask in also about his thoughts on what this Tiktok dust up between president trump and China what seemed to Be Rooted in and he said, you know this is also part of trump's sort of relationship with how he views China and Chinese technology he's gone after while way he's gone you know talked a lot about five G. technologies. So do you see that I mean? Do you see that as a pattern in how the president views technologies specifically that's coming out of China. Yeah I think the you know the trump administration's been. Pursuing a campaign of you know escalating what could be a new type of Cold War approach to China and a lot of it is wrapped up in technology and and I think the focus on Tiktok really makes the most sense. If you consider it a distraction from two things I is a distraction from actual problems with China you know the the trump administration got this phase one trade deal which didn't really get to the deep issues of subsidy and market access and intellectual property protection. And, on the other hand, it's distracting from the fact that a lot of these security concerns should apply across many apps. Why just tick Tock you know you're talking about including American made apps like facebook and twitter. Yeah I mean the concerns are different when the parent company is in China but there are really unaccountable data collection methods going on across ad networks and data brokers are building profiles of Americans and people in other countries that can be purchased just with money and you know it's not only add companies that by this data governments can get it to. Callan, as we sort of touched on this earlier. But of course, we I, say this all the time we're heading into one of the most consequential presedential elections in my lifetime at least social media is constantly changing is tiktok going to be a thing and twenty twenty and November, or is it going to be eclipse with something else or it'll change the? Will it change the election? Calvin what are your thoughts on that? I don't see Tiktok going away anytime soon, as long as the president allows it to operate in the United States I think we're gonNA see more is eight organizing on the APP among young people and I think we're GONNA see. TIKTOK. As long as Microsoft buys it or another company comes in to allow it to operate in the US I think it's going to stick around for a long time. I mean the president did Callan has also asked that Microsoft give money to the Treasury. If it makes this sale, we is anybody else interested in buying tiktok or is it just Microsoft right now? I don't think anyone else has come out as far as I'm aware and said that they are interested in purchasing Tik. Tok I think Microsoft even just recently confirmed that they were interested in this conversation, but it appears a deal needs to be made by September fifteenth. So if someone's going to buy it, it has to happen soon. Well you heard it here I guess I callan Rosenblatt is a youth internet culture reporter for NBC News Dot Com and Graham Webster is the editor of the digit China Project at the Stanford? University Cyber Policy Center and he's also a fellow

President Trump Tiktok United States Donald Trump Graham China President Biden Microsoft Tulsa Graham Webster Callan Rosenblatt NBC Us Treasury Chinese Government Stanford University Cowan
Will TikTok Be Banned In The USA? It May Depend On Who Owns It

Morning Edition

03:49 min | 2 years ago

Will TikTok Be Banned In The USA? It May Depend On Who Owns It

"It's the shiny new thing in social media, and it's super popular with Generation Z. But the clock may be running out on Tic tac. See what I did there because the Trump administration claims it could be used for espionage. NPR's Jackie Northam explains. When you scroll through the TIC tac cap, There's a constant stream of lively music videos featuring teenagers and twentysomethings and lots of cute little dogs and sunglasses performing for the camera. But they're going to be some pretty unhappy young people here in the U. S. If the Trump administration gets its way. In an interview, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the U. S may ban the Chinese own TIC TAC because it views it as a national security risk, whether it's tic tac or any of the other Chinese communications platforms, APS Infrastructure that this administration taken seriously the requirement to protect the American people from having their information end up in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party. Tic Tac has been just really an uplifting thing for families. This is a company and an app that is meant for creativity and to enjoy that's Michael Beckerman, a vice president and head of public policy at TIC Tac US. He denies the Trump administration's charges and says there's no intelligence to be gleaned from the AP. Vic talk, like other social media platforms collects data on its users. But Beckerman says, Tick tock never has, nor will share that data with Beijing. We have very strong access controls to data our servers as I mentioned her in Virginia and the decisions on content and everything else or air made at the U. S level by our U. S leadership. The considerable Beijing Stealing data has been building for about five years. Ever since a cybersecurity attack on the office of Personnel Management when sensitive information of more than 20 million U. S citizens was stolen, Paltry Olo, who focuses on the intersection of politics and technology at the Eurasia Group. Scissor have been a number of similar incidents since Trio says the concern grew when China introduced a new national security law a couple years ago. And that law basically just says that companies individuals have to cooperate with the Chinese government when it comes to intelligence matters. It's very vague, though it doesn't say a social media company has to turn over all stated to the Chinese. Government, the Trump administration's effort to ban any Chinese equipment that could be used to steal sensitive data, trade secrets or intellectual property is picking up speed. That even includes thousands of surveillance cameras set up in government buildings and military facilities. Most of them are made by Chinese companies or have Chinese components. All those cameras have to be removed by August 13th. Hitting the deadline is absolutely going to be tricky. I mean, it's just it's like it's less than a month away. Catherine Gronberg is with Force Coat Technologies, a California based cyber security company. She says. It'll be difficult to replace the cameras. You know, the fact is, is that these markets are dominated in some cases by Chinese products, and in fact, we don't have alternatives that are either made by us or in the U. S. Or U. S Ally, Eurasia Group's trio, Lo says the movement against TIC TAC and other Chinese platforms and tech companies. Comes at a particularly turbulent time in U. S China relations exacerbated by the trade dispute and the Corona virus pandemic. It's a much, much broader problem that between the US and China that the tech companies are being dragged into You know, there's there's no trust basically, and the administration warns more Chinese made equipment or APS are in its crosshairs. Jackie Northam. NPR news

Tic Tac Trump Administration Jackie Northam China Chinese Government Michael Beckerman Chinese Communist Party Beijing Eurasia Group NPR Catherine Gronberg Trio Mike Pompeo Aps Infrastructure United States Virginia VIC U. S
"eurasia group" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

90.3 KAZU

03:19 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on 90.3 KAZU

"Tensions have spiked between the world's two most populous nations. That would be China and India. The two countries share a border that extends for more than 2000 miles, and it was along that border that violence broke out. Last month, 20 Indian troops were killed. Now India has banned dozens of Chinese APS, including the social video APP. TIC tac. India has been tic Tac's biggest foreign market. NPR's Lauren Frayer has been talking with some of the Indians obsessed with it. When the Corona virus hit India, Sumit Jane was forced to shut the clothing shop he runs in his hometown in western India. Under lock down. He was bored and worried. Looking long thought intelligent. That damned ignominy. Tic tac is how I stayed. Sane says I posted videos every day, Good Tic Tac clip Jane lip synchs lyrics about the Corona virus. To the tune of a popular Bollywood song. Jane is a skinny 28 year old with a curly mop of hair, gold earrings and nearly four million followers on Tic Tac social video APP has made him famous. He starred in a music video and even got offers to be on TV that Ah, licking a musical gave a small town in hands like me used to have to move to the big city to get noticed, he says. Tic Tac lets us do that from home. Up to 1/3 of TIC Tac users are believed to be in India. They're the biggest group outside China. Some Indians have even monetized it selling English lessons on tick talk, for example. But this week, the Indian government banned Tic Tac, along with 58 other Chinese made APS amid tensions with Beijing. We the people of India, standing behind the government have the ability to hit China where it hurts. India's nationalist TV anchors applauded the move. Many Indians are outraged over China's killing last month of Indian troops. Some are calling for a boycott of all Chinese goods. The government is trying to tap into the national sentiment in sweeping India right now. Akil Berry with the think tank Eurasia Group, says the Indian government is concerned about data privacy on Chinese APS. It also wants Indians to develop Indian APS rather than using Chinese ones. But India's own tech start ups get a lot of Chinese investment, Barry says. When you take a look at India's unicorns startups that a valued at over $1 billion about 18 off the 30 of them have Chinese investment. So if Beijing retaliates and pulls Chinese investment That could hurt India even more, he says. Tic Tac says it's following Indian privacy laws and is asking the Indian government to reconsider. Meanwhile, in a small town in northern India, housewife Anita Meena has been posting videos to tic tac of herself doing folk dances and have gone viral. She gets recognized when she goes to her local market, she says. Tick. Tuck is banned. Mina says she'll focus on YouTube Instead, it's unclear how many of India's roughly 200 million TIC tac users will do the same if Lauren Frayer NPR

Tic Tac India Indian government China Beijing Barry Jane Anita Meena tank Eurasia Group Akil Berry
TikTok Tackles India App Ban, Vowing It's No Tool for Beijing

Marketplace

03:19 min | 2 years ago

TikTok Tackles India App Ban, Vowing It's No Tool for Beijing

"Tensions have spiked between the world's two most populous nations. That would be China and India. The two countries share a border that extends for more than 2000 miles, and it was along that border that violence broke out. Last month, 20 Indian troops were killed. Now India has banned dozens of Chinese APS, including the social video APP. TIC tac. India has been tic Tac's biggest foreign market. NPR's Lauren Frayer has been talking with some of the Indians obsessed with it. When the Corona virus hit India, Sumit Jane was forced to shut the clothing shop he runs in his hometown in western India. Under lock down. He was bored and worried. Looking long thought intelligent. That damned ignominy. Tic tac is how I stayed. Sane says I posted videos every day, Good Tic Tac clip Jane lip synchs lyrics about the Corona virus. To the tune of a popular Bollywood song. Jane is a skinny 28 year old with a curly mop of hair, gold earrings and nearly four million followers on Tic Tac social video APP has made him famous. He starred in a music video and even got offers to be on TV that Ah, licking a musical gave a small town in hands like me used to have to move to the big city to get noticed, he says. Tic Tac lets us do that from home. Up to 1/3 of TIC Tac users are believed to be in India. They're the biggest group outside China. Some Indians have even monetized it selling English lessons on tick talk, for example. But this week, the Indian government banned Tic Tac, along with 58 other Chinese made APS amid tensions with Beijing. We the people of India, standing behind the government have the ability to hit China where it hurts. India's nationalist TV anchors applauded the move. Many Indians are outraged over China's killing last month of Indian troops. Some are calling for a boycott of all Chinese goods. The government is trying to tap into the national sentiment in sweeping India right now. Akil Berry with the think tank Eurasia Group, says the Indian government is concerned about data privacy on Chinese APS. It also wants Indians to develop Indian APS rather than using Chinese ones. But India's own tech start ups get a lot of Chinese investment, Barry says. When you take a look at India's unicorns startups that a valued at over $1 billion about 18 off the 30 of them have Chinese investment. So if Beijing retaliates and pulls Chinese investment That could hurt India even more, he says. Tic Tac says it's following Indian privacy laws and is asking the Indian government to reconsider. Meanwhile, in a small town in northern India, housewife Anita Meena has been posting videos to tic tac of herself doing folk dances and have gone viral. She gets recognized when she goes to her local market, she says. Tick. Tuck is banned. Mina says she'll focus on YouTube Instead, it's unclear how many of India's roughly 200 million TIC tac users will do the same if Lauren Frayer NPR

Tic Tac India Indian Government China Sumit Jane Lauren Frayer Beijing NPR Anita Meena Tuck Youtube Akil Berry Tank Eurasia Group Mina Barry
US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia

01:02 min | 2 years ago

US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China

"States, saying it has revoked parts of Hongkong's special status. Under U. S law. Ed. It's all yours. And this looks like the beginning comes in the form of a written statement from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, saying the new security measures on Hong Kong that there's a risk That sensitive U. S. Tech could goto Beijing, he says an end a Hong Kong preferential treatment over China, including export license exemptions and some visas, he says further actions too deferential treatment are also being evaluated. So what's up with the timing? Well, Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer says things have not been going well for President Trump's reelection effort, so he has kind of grasp onto this one's going toe look, a scan that President Trump For whacking China over unilaterally changing the terms of Hong Kong special status of Hong Kong's autonomy. The Americans are changing the status here the Chinese are and the Americans are only recognized against. Security legislation in Beijing. Expect to be voted on later today

Hong Kong President Trump Wilbur Ross Beijing China Hongkong Ian Bremmer Eurasia Group Founder U. S. Tech
Oil futures point higher Sunday night after OPEC+ extends output cuts to July

Morning Edition

01:16 min | 2 years ago

Oil futures point higher Sunday night after OPEC+ extends output cuts to July

"OPEC now the oil cartel held a meeting over the weekend the virtual meeting obviously we're decided to extend record cuts in oil production through July the idea of course being to keep oil prices up marketplace's Kimberly Adams reports the decision comes on the back of months of major volatility in the oil markets global demand for oil fell off a cliff as country after country locked down during the pandemic that's meant lower gas prices for consumers but a tough time for oil producers now that countries are starting to open up oil price trends are reflecting the change Robert Johnston is with the Eurasia group key parts of the world it's got it all traces back almost forty dollars a barrel and we had negative pricing for elite US will also come back a long ways so the question is ready go from here maybe not that far says Louise Dickson at restart energy she says oil's recovery will be slow and stunted by the sheer economic impact of countries and economies in GDP overall lower household spending left in this travel fewer people buying new vehicles and any recovery will also depend on what happens next with the

Opec Kimberly Adams Robert Johnston United States Louise Dickson Eurasia Group
The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?

Marketplace

02:22 min | 2 years ago

The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?

"We are in a recession like right now already thing is this isn't like the recessions we usually get were something wrong with the financial system or another part of the economy a problem it might take a while to fix right this is a pandemic a really fast moving pandemic that at some point is going to be over and that let us today to wonder how bad this recession might get how quickly it might pass and how long it's gonna take us to get back to where we were marketplace's Sabri Banna shore starts us off in one week jobless claims went from two hundred and eighty two thousand to three point three million one week that is how fast this economic downturn is happening but just because it is coming on quickly does not mean it will go away quickly the recovery is going to be staggered a sharp V. shaped recession doesn't seem likely says carpenter is chief U. S. economist at UBS securities as different parts of the country get hacked and shut down at different times the recession spreads out across time how much time welcome here says he thinks the lockdowns in the worst of the virus could pass by June but the economy we knew will not be waiting on the other side there are millions upon millions of Americans who have already and will have lost their jobs I suspect spending will be damped pretty dramatically for a lot of those people as they try to rebuild their lives the unemployment rate could fall somewhere between ten and thirty percent even people who don't lose their jobs may not spend the same way Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia group people are not going to feel comfortable going to concerts going to bars or getting on a crowded plane after nine eleven it took about two years for the truck to return to the pre attack levels here Norman bar this is chief economist of IHS Markit he says businesses like people will take on debt to get through this which will leave them much less likely to make big investments as some businesses go under supply chains will lose links we don't think will regain the pre opened nineteen levels of GDP for another two or three years so in two to three years the economy will be where it was a few months ago forget where we would have been had this pandemic not happened but despite that the US has one piece of advice this too shall pass one more time this too shall

Ubs Securities Ian Bremmer President Trump Chief Economist Ihs Markit United States Sabri Banna Eurasia Group Norman
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:42 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Span of one hundred fifty seven years the temperatures of civil war veterans are higher than those collected in the nineteen seventies and the readings are even cooler today I'm in Kate's the city of Chicago is suing a coffee company for trademark infringement saying its logo is nearly identical to the symbol for the city's fire department lawsuit states that the design is likely used to confuse consumers into thinking that the city has endorsed or even sponsored the business the business is run by firefighters and I'm Charlie Pellett amp Bloomberg world headquarters virus fears are mounting on Wall Street and the S. and P. five hundred index has a race that's twenty twenty game the Dow B. S. and P. and nasdaq all moving lower today on heightened concern that the spread of the coronavirus will slam global economic growth Meredith some to resent research strategy Eurasia group but it's not just China that we are looking at and I I know most of the cases are reporting in China we do think that as the virus spreads beyond China two other large emerging market countries perhaps with state governments that don't have the resources or the infrastructure to attack the outbreak of the virus as China itself does that's where we're going to get concerned and Brian winds dean is head of global fixed income at Morgan Stanley investment management and this message for investors is ideal to keep you keep your yield fixed income meals keep falling but you can still find opportunities you just can't be scared away twenty give those heels away it's really hard to get them back in every day count and among the day's economic data consumer spending moderated in December with that story here's Bloomberg's Vinny del July's consumer spending powers America's economy and it put in a less than spectacular performance for the holidays December's gain point three percent versus November's point four percent increase adjusted for inflation we're looking at an even smaller December game just point one percent and that was tied to medical costs Christmas stocking stuffers any doubt you baseball Burke radio first day of trading for Reynolds consumer products the maker of Reynolds wrap aluminum foil and hefty trash bags shares up nine point eight percent in its trading debut the Dow the S. and P. and nasdaq steep losses assn P. down fifty eight dot one point eight percent the Dow down six hundred three down two point one percent nasdaq down a hundred and forty eight down one point six percent global news twenty four hours a day on air and on quick take by Bloomberg power by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries I'm Charlie palette this is Bloomberg this is burden law complicated international law issues here what kind of docket is Chief Justice Roberts facing issues with prominent attorneys in Bloomberg legal.

Reynolds Burke Vinny del Morgan Stanley Brian Chief Justice Roberts Kate America Bloomberg China Eurasia group Charlie Pellett trademark infringement
"eurasia group" Discussed on KTLK 1130 AM

KTLK 1130 AM

11:43 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on KTLK 1130 AM

"Eurasia Group leading global political risk research and consulting firm the economist says he's a rising guru in the field of political risk and we're glad to have him here and he and I have to tell you I'm I'm a fan of Mike Lee and michaeli was against the president when he was running and then he was for him after he did a few things yesterday he came out and said it was a horrible briefing and that no president should have just war powers unlimited and he's being branded today is as anti trump no it's us thinking human being I can be for some things and against other things and I appreciate that about you coming out yesterday and saying I don't I'm not a trump supporter but good job on the Saran thing thank you that would be a fairly sensible position to be able to take but as you know and as you just said it's a it's becoming more challenging I was heartened that actually that the interview that I did on CNN that was you know sort of as all this is coming down the pike on Monday morning was then picked up and promoted and talked about on fox news and I it's this is so rare that actually happens in a sensible way yeah because because there's just so much of two completely separate countries in two completely separate bubbles in digesting different information and news and deciding that they have a team and if you're not on the team it doesn't really matter what do you do something that's smart good at you know I mean like what I've supported Obama if he'd had the same if he'd killed that is the sum of money and the Iranians had responded with nothing and let's please talk of course I work had nothing to do with the president is right you know right good for you Eddie is shocking that I have to thank you for that but me point out that you're thinking human being still in those are rare I'm so looking at the report that was released on Monday from your group you're looking at the top risks for twenty twenty do do do you put a ran in the top risk at all yeah we we put it we had a broad risk about we called she a crescendo of challenges testability in both Syria Iraq and Iran as risk number eight towards the bottom the list but Iran itself was considered a red herring that actually it was going to be talked up a lot people gonna say we're going to war and we didn't buy any of it and I was a lot of push back I changed my new year's resolution as a consequence to a just trying to convince people that World War three is not imminent it here we are it was easy I mean there's no question Iran is still a very serious adversary the United States in the region that's not that it didn't change overnight but we have now established a real deterrent they have now backed down and there is a window of opportunity for negotiations I mean so much so that the likelihood of negotiations being pursued between the US and around directly this year in my view are greater than a resumption of military conflict directly between the two sides that and I think that's quite something else so you say the number one risk for twenty twenty in the U. S. is who governs the U. S. A. quoting in twenty twenty U. S. institutions will be tested as never before in November election will produce a result many will see as illegitimate if trump wins amount amid credible charges of irregularities the result will be contested if he loses this particular of the vote is close it will be the same either scenario would create months of lawsuits in a political vacuum but unlike the contested the bush gore twenty at our two thousand election the loser is unlikely to accept a court decided outcome as legitimate that's frightening you know it's it's not the end of democracy it's not like the United States is about to become Hungary or Turkey solider institutions and a break but I do think that we're going to win the equity equivalent is brexit right and and not the not the brexit reality that's coming at the end of January but rather what happened after they voted which is the the people that lost said no we want another vote we just wasn't acceptable you didn't tell us what this is all about this is a legitimate and for three years you at the Brits tearing each other at the exception at the expense of getting any legislation done of actually governing of actually leading and I I hear that we're entering a period like that in the United States again the U. K. institutions are still there the Royals took a beating over the last few days but leaving that aside the institutions are still there a there's still a democracy they still function but thank god they they show themselves being completely incapable of governing for prayer time and I think that coming out of the twenty twenty elections were likely to have that kind of a broken election processes that wasn't that bright brexit wasn't broken because there was a big scandal of possible rigging of an election one way or another what they were saying was well we're we're not going to we're just not going to do that because you know that's just not the right thing to do they weren't listening to the people and and that was the real problem in brexit if if there is a scandal that goes along with this in one way or another that's different than the brexit thing isn't it yes yes how we get there is completely different I was just talking about what it would feel like okay states that we were talking about revolution you know know how we get there and you know it's it's just we have an impeachment says the president has been impeached he will be acquitted and he will be acquitted despite having in my view have been having committed crimes abusing power to swing the election in his favor so impeachment will be broken as the restraint on the president as he seeks reelection so here let me ask you this we disagree on on the the crying saying I think this is a I I think this there are crimes that were committed but not necessarily by the president but if he did commit them I want to know them I want to hear the all of the evidence I won it fair and I went out in the open and if he did he's out or if anybody else did do you think that we live in a world that that Washington will give us a fair trial and call everyone to the witness stand no no not because I mean again you know the Democrats the party line right the boat was a party line vote and in the Senate the same thing's going to happen with the Republicans I mean so there's no possibility that impeachment could proceed in the way that our founding fathers had intended it doesn't really broken in the process right and doesn't this this breaks down I think is happening in Washington I am not sure that it is happening as much as it is in the in the middle of America and the non political America I'm not sure that it's happening as strong as it is on TV and in Washington I think both Democrats and Republicans see this entire thing as this but neither side is being right here again I I think that the school Roddick partisanship the capture of our political process by big money and special interests on both sides has led to an awful lot of angry people yeah a lot of Americans that deal with the system is broken it's disenfranchised at a trade and and you know that that is about Washington it is about the political system but you know there was a story last year that a one piece of data that I mean I think articulated this for me it had nothing to do with Washington but my god it feels the same way for everyone which is you know around this Boise blues scandal with all the parents are to find their way in universities I doubt that last year in Greenwich Connecticut fifty percent of the high school is taking the SAT fifty percent of them had notes from psychologists allowing them to take the test on monitored over two days as opposed to four hours oh my gosh and I mean you talk about the average American right the average American looks that they say yep exactly that's the problem that I knew what I can't do a damn thing I mean I'm powerless these people **** me and and that Washington Washington complicit but it's more than just Washington it's just Washington the media I agree not right for let's talk a little bit about China what's coming our way with China because China is not Iraq I mean we're not we're not gonna be able to we're not gonna be able to do anything with China and have them react the same way but they seem to really be hurting by these the sanctions what's coming our way I like the way you put that because you know I mean trump with his two of his biggest foreign policy wins have been the same basic strategy they've been what he just did with Iran and then we get to Mexico when he said I'm the destroyer economy little your head's gonna spin if you don't actually tighten up the borders in both cases times like this guy at the poker table with a massive stack of chips in front of it doesn't really matter it's holding a two nine or pocket aces he just put all his chips and and you're gonna hold right but China is not gonna hold right China's ability to say no to the United States is actually quite robust and so we are going to get this deal signed on January fifteenth this phase one trade deal the Chinese is sending a little to Washington DC the lead trade negotiator and get signed in the markets will be pleased in care of some terrorists will be reduced as a consequence but that's far as it goes in my vehicle and this year we're going to have US China relations deteriorate on a host of friends we've got this woman from while way that we have been talking about for months but she's about to go through her extradition hearing in Canada in just a couple weeks time the week after the phase one deal was signed that's much more meaningful for the Chinese then the phase one deal to talk to the leaders you got Taiwanese selections this weekend gonna move in a more nationalist direction on the back of their solidarity with the demonstrators in Hong Kong Hong Kong the Chinese just appointed a new liaison to manage the region much more hardline and senior than the one they had previously appointed that's clearly not moving in a good direction you've got the Uighurs the ethnic minority Muslim minority one point five million of them in a re education camps and forced labor in site China and Congress bipartisan believe it or not one of the few things that they agree on Congress right now see the hardline policy on China and signed it even though if you really want to because he thought it might screw up this trade deal so I mean I think on all of these different issues the US China relationship the world's two largest economies in the world are actually heading towards more confrontation this year and do.

Eurasia Group Mike Lee michaeli president
"eurasia group" Discussed on NewsRadio WIOD

NewsRadio WIOD

14:22 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on NewsRadio WIOD

"Eurasia Group leading global political risk research and consulting firm the economist says he's a rising guru in the field of political risk and we're glad to have him here and he and I have to tell you I'm I'm a fan of Mike Lee and michaeli was against the president when he was running and then he was for him after he did a few things yesterday he came out and said it was a horrible briefing and that no president should have just war powers unlimited and he's being branded today is as anti trump no it's a thinking human being I can be for some things and against other things and I appreciate that about you coming out yesterday and saying I don't I'm not a trump supporter but good job on the Saran thing thank you that would be a fairly sensible position to be able to take but as you know and as you just said it's a it's becoming more challenging I was heartened that actually the interview that I did on CNN that was you know sort of as all this is coming down the pike on Monday morning was then picked up and promoted and talked about on fox news and I it's just so weird that that actually happens in a sensible way yeah because because there's just so much of two completely separate countries in two completely separate bubbles in digesting different information and news and deciding that they have a team and if you're not on the team it doesn't really matter what do you do something that's smart good it you know I mean like what I've supported Obama if he had had the same if he'd killed that is the sum of money and the Iranians had responded with nothing and let's please talk of course I would yeah I had nothing to do with the president is right you know I good for you that is shocking that I have to thank you for that but let me point out that you're thinking human being still nails are rare so looking at the report that was released on Monday from your group you're looking at the top risks for twenty twenty do do do you put a ran in the top risk at all yeah we we put it we had a broad risk about we call she a crescendo of challenges to stability in both Syria Iraq and Iran as risk number eight towards the bottom the list but Iran itself was considered a red herring that actually it was going to be talked up a lot people gonna say we're going to war and we didn't buy any of it and with a lot of push back I changed my new year's resolution as a consequence to a just trying to convince people that World War three is not imminent it here we are who's raising that I mean there's no question Iran is still a very serious adversary the United States in the region that's not that it didn't change overnight but we have now established a real deterrent they have now back down and there is a window of opportunity for negotiations I mean so much so that the likelihood of negotiations being pursued between the US and around directly this year in my view are greater than a resumption of military conflict directly between the two sides that and I think that's quite something else so you say the number one risk for twenty twenty in the U. S. is who governs the U. S. A. quoting in twenty twenty U. S. institutions will be tested as never before in November election will produce a result many will see as illegitimate if trump wins amount amid credible charges of irregularities the result will be contested if he loses this particular if the vote is close it will be the same either scenario would create months of lawsuits in a political vacuum but unlike the contested the bush gore twenty at our two thousand election the loser is unlikely to accept a court decided outcome as legitimate that's frightening you know it's it's not the end of democracy it's not like the United States is about to become Hungary or Turkey smaller institutions in a break but I do think that we're going to India could be equivalent is brexit right and and not the not the brexit reality that's coming at the end of January but rather what happened after they voted which is the the people that lost said no we want another vote we just wasn't acceptable you didn't tell us what this is all about this is it legitimate and so for three years you at the Brits tearing each other at the exception at the expense of getting any legislation done of actually governing of actually leading and I I hear that we're entering a period like that in the United States again the U. K. institutions are still there the Royals took a beating over the last few days but leaving that aside the institutions is still there there's still a democracy they still function but my god they they show themselves being completely incapable of governing for your time and I think that coming out of the twenty twenty elections were likely to have that kind of a broken election processes that wasn't that bright brexit wasn't broken because there was a big scandal of possible rigging of an election one way or another what they were saying was well we're we're not going to we're just not going to do that because you know that's just not the right thing to do they weren't listening to the people and and that was the real problem in brexit if if there is a scandal that goes along with this in one way or another that's different than the brexit thing isn't it yes yes how we get there is completely different I was just talking about what it would feel like states that we were talking about revolution you know know how we get there and you know I take this we have an impeachment says the president has been impeached he will be acquitted and he will be acquitted despite having in my view have been having committed a crime times abusing power can you swing the election in his favor so impeachment will be broken as the restaurant on the president as he seeks reelection so here let me ask you this we disagree on on the the crying saying I think this is a I I think this there are crimes that were committed but not necessarily by the president but if he did commit them I want to know them I want to hear the all of the evidence I won it fair and I went out in the open and if he did he's out or if anybody else did do you think that we live in a world that that Washington will give us a fair trial and call everyone to the witness stand I don't know no not because I mean again you know the Democrats the party line right the boat was a party line vote and in the Senate the same thing's going to happen with the Republicans I mean so there's no possibility that impeachment could proceed in the way that our founding fathers had intended it doesn't the broken in the process right and doesn't this this breaks down I think is happening in Washington I not sure that it is happening as much as it is in the in the middle of America and the non political America I'm not sure that it's happening as strong as it is on TV and in Washington I think both Democrats and Republicans see this entire thing as this but neither side is being right here again I I think that the school Roddick partisanship the capture of our political process by big money and special interests on both sides has led to an awful lot of angry people yeah a lot of Americans that killed the system is broken that its disenfranchised the trade and and you know that that is about Washington it is about the political system but you know there was a story last year that one of the data that I mean I think articulated this for me it had nothing to do with Washington but my god it feels the same way for everyone which is you know around this varsity blues scandal with all the parents are to find their way in universities I doubt that last year in Greenwich Connecticut that of the high school is taking the SAT fifty percent of them had notes from psychologists allowing them to take the test on monitored over two days as opposed to four hours oh my gosh and I mean you talk about the average American right the average American looks that they say yep exactly that the problem that I knew what I can't do a damn thing I mean I'm powerless these people were screaming at me and and that Washington Washington complicit but it's more than just watching it just Washington the media I agree not right for let's talk a little bit about China what's coming our way with China because China is not Iraq I mean we're not right we're not going to be able to we're not gonna be able to do anything with China and have them react the same way but they seem to really be hurting by the use the sanctions what's coming our way I like the way you put that because you know I mean trump with his two of his biggest foreign policy wins have been the same basic strategy they've been what he just did with Iran and then we get with Mexico when he said I'm to destroy your economy little your head spin if you don't actually tighten up the borders in both cases trump like this guy at the poker table with a massive stack of chips in front of it doesn't really matter it's holding a two nine or pocket aces he just put all his chips then you're gonna hold right but China is not gonna full right China's ability to say no to the United States is actually quite robust and so we are going to get this deal signed on January fifteenth this phase one trade deal the Chinese ascending to Washington DC to lead trade negotiator and get signed in the markets will be pleased in care of some terrorists will be reduced as a consequence but that's far as it goes in my vehicle and this year we're going to have US China relations deteriorate on a host of fronts we've got this woman from while way that we have been talking about for months but she's about to go through her extradition hearing in Canada in just a couple weeks time the week after the phase one deal was signed up much more meaningful for the Chinese then the phase one deal could talk to their leaders you got Taiwanese elections this weekend gonna move in a more nationalist direction on the back of their solidarity with the demonstrators in Hong Kong Hong Kong the Chinese just appointed a new liaison to manage the region much more hardline and senior than the one they had previously appointed that's clearly not moving in a good direction you've got the weavers the ethnic minority Muslim minority one point five million of them in a re education camps and forced labor inside China and Congress bipartisan believe it or not one of the few things that they agree on Congress right now seen a hardline policy on China and signed it even though I didn't really want to because he thought it might screw up this trade deal so I mean I think on all of these different issues the US China relationship the world's two largest economies in the world are actually heading towards more confrontations this year and do you see that becoming a Cold War kind of scenario or I mean you know if if Hong Kong falls Taiwan is next in do we just let that happen or is it a Cold War a hot war possibility that is on the horizon in the years to come we're not going to intervene in Hong Kong at all and I think we're still very far from a military confrontation over Taiwan or over the South China Sea for example where we all have a lot of military assets and territories contested but it is a Cold War that's already here when we talk about technology and and and even the language that she's in pain uses idea of a long March that they are now on in building a I am a C. by twenty thirty the Chinese have decided to topple their technology systems there algorithms their big data their cloud from that of the United States and you know if you listen to Bill Gates or Steve Pinker any of the people that are more optimistic about the future of the world the reason they give you for that optimism fundamentales globalization's because ideas and people and goods and services have moved faster and faster supporters over the last generations really post World War two right and suddenly we're taking a very significant step in the other direction for the first time really and your in my lifetime so we're seeing that happen where the the the future of the global economy is being divided into a U. S. pier and a Chinese here and and that clearly that does have elements of real Cold War because in in trade we can fight with the Chinese but ultimately we do one trade more than they one trade more with us they want to buy more treasuries we want their economy succeed because it's good for us when we the couple are Techsystems from each other we want their tax system to fail it becomes a security type competition to it so for me when I think about what went to the major powers literally we are pushing for the collapse of yeah the laps of the other day and I think that's the definition I think that's where we now are in technology we want every year ago we were heading in that direction the way there now Ian Bremmer political scientist author of us verses them the failure of globalism and his top risks for twenty twenty it's a fascinating read you can you can find it Ian Bremmer dot com you can also follow him Ian Bremmer thank you so much and appreciate it always good.

Eurasia Group Mike Lee michaeli president
"eurasia group" Discussed on WTVN

WTVN

12:06 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on WTVN

"Eurasia Group leading global political risk research and consulting firm the economist says he's a rising guru in the field of political risk and we're glad to have him here and he and I have to tell you I'm I'm a fan of Mike Lee and michaeli was against the president when he was running and then he was for him after he did a few things yesterday he came out and said it was a horrible briefing and that no president should have just war powers unlimited and he's being branded today is as anti trump no it's a thinking human being I can be for some things and against other things and I appreciate that about you coming out yesterday and saying I don't I'm not a strong supporter but good job on the Saran thing thank you that would be a fairly sensible position to be able to take but as you know and as you just said it's a it's becoming more challenging I was heartened that actually the the interview that I did on CNN that was you know sort of as all this is coming down the pike on Monday morning was then picked up and promoted and talked about on fox news and it's this is so rare that actually happens in a sensible way yeah because because there's just so much of two completely separate countries in two completely separate bubbles in digesting different information and news and deciding that they have a team and if you're not on the team it doesn't really matter what do you do something that's smart good it you know I mean like what I've supported Obama if he'd had the same if he'd killed the sum of money and the Iranians had responded with nothing and let's please talk of course I would yeah I had nothing to do with the president is right in line good for you Eddie is shocking that I have to thank you for that but let me point out that since you're thinking human being still in those are rare I'm so looking at the report that was released on Monday from your group you're looking at the top risks for twenty twenty do do do you put a ran in the top risk at all yeah we we put it we had a broad risk about we called she a crescendo of challenges to stability in both Syria Iraq and Iran as risk number eight towards the bottom the list but Iran itself was considered a red herring and that actually it was going to be talked up a lot people gonna say we're going to war and we didn't buy any of it and I will want to push back I changed my new year's resolution as a consequence to just trying to convince people that World War three is not imminent it here we are it was easy I mean there's no question Iran is still a very serious adversary the United States in the region that's not that it didn't change overnight but we have now established a real deterrent they have now backed down and there is a window of opportunity for negotiations I mean so much so that the likelihood of negotiations being pursued between the US and around directly this year in my view are greater than a resumption of military conflict directly between the two sides that and I think that's quite something else so you say the number one risk for twenty twenty in the U. S. is who governs the U. S. A. quoting in twenty twenty U. S. institutions will be tested as never before in November election will produce a result many will see as illegitimate if trump wins amount amid credible charges of irregularities the result will be contested if he loses this particular if the vote is close it will be the same either scenario would create months of lawsuits in a political vacuum but unlike the contested the bush gore twenty at our two thousand election the loser is unlikely to accept a court decided outcome as legitimate that's frightening you know it's it's not the end of democracy it's not like the United States is about to become Hungary or Turkey solider institutions in a break but I do think that we're going to win the equity equivalences brexit right and and not the not the brexit reality that's coming at the end of January but rather what happened after they voted which is the the people that lost said no we want another vote we just wasn't acceptable you didn't tell us what this is all about this is it legitimate and so for three years you at the Brits tearing each other at the exception at the expense of getting any legislation done of actually governing of actually leading and I I hear that we're entering a period like that in the United States again the U. K. institutions are still there the Royals took a beating over the last few days but leaving that aside the institutions are still there there's still a democracy they still function but god they they show themselves being completely incapable of governing for your time and I think that coming out of the twenty twenty elections were likely to have that kind of a broken election processes that wasn't that bright brexit wasn't broken because there was a big scandal of possible rigging of an election one way or another what they were saying was well we're we're not going to we're just not going to do that because you know that's just not the right thing to do they weren't listening to the people and and that was the real problem in brexit if if there is a scandal that goes along with this in one way or another that's different than the brexit thing isn't it yes yes certainly how we get there is completely different I was just talking about what it would feel like okay states that we were talking about revolution you know know how we get there and you know I take this we have an impeachment says the president has been impeached he will be acquitted and he will be acquitted despite having in my view had been having committed a crime times abusing power to swing the election in his favor so impeachment will be broken as the restaurant on the president as he seeks reelection here so here let me ask you this we disagree on on the the crying thing I think this is a I I think this there are crimes that were committed but not necessarily by the president but if he did commit them I want to know them I want to hear the all of the evidence I won it fair and I went out in the open and if he did he's out or if anybody else did do you think that we live in a world that that Washington will give us a fair trial and call everyone to the witness stand now known of course not because I mean again you know the Democrats the party line right the vote was a party line vote and in the Senate the same thing's going to happen with the Republicans I mean so there's no possibility that impeachment could proceed in the way that our founding fathers had intended it doesn't really broken in the process right and doesn't this this breaks down I think is happening in Washington I am not sure that it is happening as much as it is in in the middle of America and the non political America I'm not sure that it's happening as strong as it is on TV and in Washington I think both Democrats and Republicans see this entire thing as this but neither side is being right here again I I think that the school Roddick listen chip the capture of our political process by big money and special interests on both sides has led to an awful lot of angry people yeah a lot of Americans that deal with the system is broken that its disenfranchised the trade and and you know that that is about Washington it is about the political system but you know there was a story last year that one of the data that I mean I think articulated this for me it had nothing to do with Washington but my god it feels the same way for everyone which is you know around this varsity blues scandal with all the parents are to find their way in universities so it turned out that last year in Greenwich Connecticut fifty percent of the high school is taking the SAT fifty percent of them had notes from psychologists allowing them to take the test on monitored over two days as opposed to four hours oh my gosh and I mean you talk about the average American right the average American looks that they say yep exactly that the problem that I knew what I can't do a damn thing I mean I'm powerless these people were screwed me and and that Washington Washington complicit but it's more than just Washington yeah it's just Washington the media I agree not right let's talk a little bit about China what's coming our way with China because China is not Iraq I mean we're not right we're not going to be able to we're not gonna be able to do anything with China and have them react the same way but they seem to really be hurting by these sanctions what's coming our way I like the way you put that because you know I mean trump with his two of his biggest foreign policy wins have been the same basic strategy they've been what he just did with Iran and then we did with Mexico when he said I'm to destroy your economy literally your head spin if you don't actually tighten up the borders in both cases times like this guy at the poker table with a massive stack of chips in front of it doesn't really matter if you sold it to nine or pocket aces he just put all his chips then you're gonna hold right but China is not full right China's ability to say no to the United States is actually quite robust and so we are going to get this deal signed on January fifteenth this phase one trade deal the Chinese ascending Lucia to Washington DC the lead trade negotiator and get signed in the markets will be pleased in terror some terrorists will be reduced as a consequence but that's far as it goes in my vehicle and this year we're going to have US China relations deteriorate on a host of fronts we've got this woman from while way that we have been talking about for months but she's about to go through her extradition hearing in Canada in just a couple weeks time the week after the phase one deal was signed that's much more meaningful for the Chinese than the phase one deal to talk to the leaders you got Taiwanese selections this weekend gonna move in a more nationalist direction on the back of their solidarity with the demonstrators in Hong Kong Hong Kong the Chinese just appointed a new liaison to manage the region much more hardline and senior than the one they had previously appointed that's clearly not moving in a good direction you've got the Uighurs the ethnic minority Muslim minority one point five million of them in a re education finance writing and forced labor inside China and Congress bipartisan believe it or not one of the few things that they agree on Congress right now see a hardline policy on China and signed it even though you really want to because he thought it might screw up this trade deal so I mean I think on all of these different issues the US China relationship the world's two largest economies in the world are actually heading towards more confrontations this year and do you see that becoming a Cold War kind of scenario or I mean you know if if Hong Kong falls Taiwan is next in do we just let that happen or is it a Cold War a hot war possibility that is on the horizon in the years to come we're not going to intervene in.

Eurasia Group Mike Lee michaeli president
"eurasia group" Discussed on 600 WREC

600 WREC

11:24 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on 600 WREC

"Eurasia Group leading global political risk research and consulting firm the economist says he's a rising guru in the field of political risk and we're glad to have him here and he and I have to tell you I'm I'm a fan of Mike Lee and michaeli was against the president when he was running and then he was for him after he did a few things yesterday he came out and said it was a horrible briefing and that no president should have just war powers unlimited and he's being branded today is as anti trump no it's a thinking human being I can be for some things and against other things and I appreciate that about you coming out yesterday and saying I don't I'm not a strong supporter but good job on the Saran thing thank you that would be a fairly sensible position to be able to take but as you know and as you just said it's a it's becoming more challenging I was heartened that actually that the interview that I did on CNN that was you know sort of as all this is coming down the pike on Monday morning was then picked up and promoted and talked about on fox news and I it's this is so rare that actually happens in a sensible way yeah because because there's just so much of two completely separate countries in two completely separate bubbles in digesting different information and news and deciding that they have a team and if you're not on the team it doesn't really matter what do you do something that's smart good it you know I mean like what I've supported Obama if he had had the same if he'd killed the the sum of money and the Iranians had responded with nothing and let's please talk of course I would yeah I had nothing to do with the president is right you know I good for you Eddie is shocking that I have to thank you for that but let me point out that you're thinking human being still in those are rare I'm so looking at the report that was released on Monday from your group you're looking at the top risks for twenty twenty do do do you put a ran in the top risk at all yeah we we put it we had a broad risk about we call she a crescendo of of challenges to stability in both Syria Iraq and Iran as wrist number eight towards the bottom the list but Iran itself was considered a red herring and that actually it was going to be talked up a lot people gonna say we're going to war and we didn't buy any of it and I was a lot of push back I changed my new year's resolution as a consequence to a just trying to convince people that World War three is not imminent you know here we are it was easy I mean look there's no question Iran is still a very serious adversary the United States in the region that's not that it didn't change overnight but we have now established a real deterrent they have now backed down and there is a window of opportunity for negotiations I mean so much so that the likelihood of negotiations being pursued between the US and around directly this year in my view are greater than a resumption of military conflict directly between the two sides that and I think that's quite something else so you say the number one risk for twenty twenty in the U. S. is who governs the U. S. A. quoting in twenty twenty U. S. institutions will be tested as never before in November election will produce a result many will see as illegitimate if trump wins amount amid credible charges of irregularities the result will be contested if he loses this particular if the vote is close it will be the same either scenario would create months of lawsuits in a political vacuum but unlike the contested the bush gore twenty at our two thousand election the loser is unlikely to accept a court decided outcome as legitimate that's frightening you know it's it's not the end of democracy it's not like the United States is about to become Hungary or Turkey smaller institutions in a break but I do think that we're going to win the equity equivalent is brexit right and and not the not the brexit reality that's coming at the end of January but rather what happened after they voted which is the the people that lost said no we want another vote we just wasn't acceptable you didn't tell us what this is all about this is it legitimate and so for three years you at the Brits tearing each other at the exception at the expense of getting any legislation done of actually governing of actually leading and I I hear that we're entering a period like that in the United States again the U. K. institutions are still there the Royals took a beating over the last few days but leaving that aside the institutions are still there there's still a democracy they still function but I think god they they show themselves being completely incapable of governing for your time and I think that coming out of the twenty twenty elections were likely to have that kind of a broken election processes that wasn't that bright pricks it wasn't broken because there was a big scandal of possible rigging of an election one way or another what they were saying was well we're we're not going to we're just not going to do that because you know that's just not the right thing to do they weren't listening to the people and and that was the real problem in brexit if if there is a scandal that goes along with this in one way or another that's different than the brexit thing isn't it yes yes certainly how we get there is completely different I was just talking about what it would feel like okay states that we were talking about revolution you know know how we get there and you know I think this we have an impeachment says the president has been impeached he will be acquitted and he will be acquitted despite having in my view have been having committed a crime times abusing power to swing the election in his favor so impeachment will be broken as the restraint on the president as he seeks reelection so here let me ask you this we disagree on on the the crying saying I think this is a I I think this there are crimes that were committed but not necessarily by the president but if he did commit them I want to know them I want to hear the all of the evidence I won it fair and I went out in the open and if he did he's out or if anybody else did do you think that we live in a world that that Washington will give us a fair trial and call everyone to the witness stand no no not because I mean again you know the Democrats the party line right the vote was a party line vote and in the Senate the same thing's going to happen with the Republicans I mean so there's no possibility that impeachment could proceed in the way that our founding fathers had intended it doesn't really broken in the process right and doesn't this this breaks down I think is happening in Washington I am not sure that it is happening as much as it is in in the middle of America and the non political America I'm not sure that it's happening as strong as it is on TV and in Washington I think both Democrats and Republicans see this entire thing as this but neither side is being right here again I I think that the school Roddick partisanship the capture of our political process by big money and special interests on both sides has led to an awful lot of angry people yeah a lot of Americans that deal with the system is broken it's disenfranchised at a trade and and you know that that is about Washington it is about the political system but you know there was a story last year that one of the data that I mean I think articulated this for me it had nothing to do with Washington but my god it feels the same way for everyone which is you know around this varsity blues scandal with all the parents are to find their way in universities so it turned out that last year in Greenwich Connecticut fifty percent of the high school is taking the S. A. P. fifty percent of them had notes from psychologists allowing them to take the test on monitored over two days as opposed to four hours oh my gosh and I mean you talk about the average American right the average American looks that they say yep exactly that the problem that I knew what I can't do a damn thing I mean I'm powerless these people were screwed me and and that Washington Washington complicit but it's more than just Washington yeah it's just Washington the media I agree not right for let's talk a little bit about China what's coming our way with China because China is not Iraq I mean we're not Iraq we're not gonna be able to we're not gonna be able to do anything with China and have them react the same way but they seem to really be hurting by these the sanctions what's coming our way I like the way you put that because you know I mean trump with his two of his biggest foreign policy wins have been the same basic strategy they've been what he just did with Iran and then we did with Mexico when he said I'm to destroy your economy a little your head's gonna spin if you don't actually tighten up the borders in both cases trump like this guy at the poker table with a massive stack of chips in front of it doesn't really matter is holding a two nine or pocket aces he he just put all his chips then and you're gonna hold right but China is not gonna full right China's ability to say no to the United States is actually quite robust and so we are going to get this deal signed on January fifteenth this phase one trade deal the Chinese ascending Lucia to Washington DC the lead trade negotiator and get signed in the markets will be pleased and terror of some terrorists will be reduced as a consequence but that's far as it goes in my vehicle and this year we're going to have US China relations deteriorate on a host of friends we've got this woman from while way that we have been talking about for months but she's about to go through her extradition hearing in Canada in just a couple weeks time the week after the phase one deal was signed up much more meaningful for the Chinese and then the phase one deal could talk to their leaders you got Taiwanese selections this weekend gonna move in a more nationalist direction on the back of their solidarity with the demonstrators in Hong Kong Hong Kong the Chinese just appointed a new liaison to manage the region much more hardline and senior than the one they had previously appointed that's clearly not moving in a good direction you've got the Uighurs the ethnic minority Muslim minority one point five million of them in a re education camps and forced labor inside China and Congress bipartisan believe it or not one of the.

Eurasia Group Mike Lee michaeli president
"eurasia group" Discussed on KTOK

KTOK

11:24 min | 2 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on KTOK

"Eurasia Group leading global political risk research and consulting firm the economist says he's a rising guru in the field of political risk and we're glad to have him here and he and I have to tell you I'm I'm a fan of Mike Lee and michaeli was against the president when he was running and then he was for him after he did a few things yesterday he came out and said it was a horrible briefing and that no president should have just war powers unlimited and he's being branded today is as anti trump no it's a thinking human being I can be for some things and against other things and I appreciate that about you coming out yesterday and saying I don't I'm not a trump supporter but good job on the Saran thing thank you that would be a fairly sensible position to be able to take but as you know and as you just said it's a it's becoming more challenging I was heartened that actually the interview that I did on CNN that was you know sort of as all this is coming down the pike on Monday morning was then picked up and promoted and talked about on fox news and it's this is so rare that that actually happens in a sensible way yeah because because there's just so much of two completely separate countries in two completely separate bubbles in digesting different information and news and deciding that they have a team and if you're not on the team it doesn't really matter what do you do something that's smart good it you know I mean like what I've supported Obama if he'd had the same if he'd killed that is the sum of money and the Iranians had responded with nothing and let's please talk of course I would yeah I had nothing to do with the president is right in line good for you Eddie is shocking that I have to thank you for that but let me point out that since you're thinking human being still nails are rare so looking at the report that was released on Monday from your group you're looking at the top risks for twenty twenty do do do you put a ran in the top risk at all yeah we we put it we had a broad risk about we called she a crescendo of challenges to stability in both Syria Iraq and Iran as wrist number eight towards the bottom the list but Iran itself was considered a red herring that actually it was going to be talked up a lot people gonna say we're going to war and we didn't buy any of it and I with a lot of push back I changed my new year's resolution as a consequence to a just trying to convince people that World War three is not imminent it here we are it was easy I mean there's no question Iran is still a very serious adversary the United States in the region that's not that it didn't change overnight but we have now established a real deterrent they have now backed down and there is a window of opportunity for negotiations I mean so much so that the likelihood of negotiations being pursued between the US and around directly this year in my view are greater than a resumption of military conflict directly between the two sides that and I think that's quite something else so you say the number one risk for twenty twenty in the U. S. is who governs the U. S. A. quoting in twenty twenty U. S. institutions will be tested as never before in November election will produce a result many will see as illegitimate if trump wins amount a mid credible charges of irregularities the result will be contested if he loses this particular of the vote is close it will be the same either scenario would create months of lawsuits in a political vacuum but unlike the contested the bush gore twenty at our two thousand election the loser is unlikely to accept a court decided outcome as legitimate that's frightening you know it's it's not the end of democracy it's not like the United States is about to become Hungary or Turkey it's not like institutions and a break but I do think that we're going to win the it would be equivalent is brexit right and and not the not the brexit reality that's coming at the end of January but rather what happened after they voted which is the the people that lost said no we want another vote we just wasn't acceptable you didn't tell us what this is all about this is it legitimate and so for three years you at the Brits tearing each other at the exception at the expense of getting any legislation done of actually governing of actually leading and I I hear that we're entering a period like that in the United States again the U. K. institutions are still there the Royals took a beating over the last few days but leaving that aside the institutions are still there but there's still a democracy they still function but thank god they they show themselves being completely incapable of governing for prayer time and I think that coming out of the twenty twenty elections were likely to have that kind of a broken election process was that wasn't the bright pricks it wasn't broken because there was a big scandal of possible rigging of an election one way or another what they were saying was well we're we're not going to we're just not going to do that because you know that's just not the right thing to do they weren't listening to the people and and that was the real problem in brexit if if there is a scandal that goes along with this in one way or another that's different than the brexit thing isn't it yes yes certainly how we get there is completely different I was just talking about what it would feel like okay states that we were talking about revolution you know know how we get there and you know I did this we have an impeachment says the president has been impeached he will be acquitted and he will be acquitted despite having in my view have been having committed a crime times abusing power to swing the election in his favor so impeachment will be broken as the restraint on the president as he seeks reelection so here let me ask you this we disagree on on the the crying saying I think this is a I I think this there are crimes that were committed but not necessarily by the president but if he did commit them I want to know them I want to hear the all of the evidence I won it fair and I went out in the open and if he did he's out or if anybody else did do you think that we live in a world that that Washington will give us a fair trial and call everyone to the witness stand now known of course not because I mean again you know the Democrats the party line right the boat was a party line vote and in the Senate the same thing's going to happen with the Republicans I mean so there's no possibility that impeachment could proceed in the way that our founding fathers had intended it doesn't really broken in the process right and doesn't this this breaks down I think is happening in Washington I am not sure that it is happening as much as it is in the in the middle of America and the non political America I'm not sure that it's happening as strong as it is on TV and in Washington I think both Democrats and Republicans see this entire thing as this but neither side is being right here again I I think that the school Roddick partisanship the capture of our political process by big money and special interests on both sides has led to an awful lot of angry people yeah a lot of Americans that deal with the system is broken that its disenfranchised the trade and and you know that that is about Washington it is about the political system but you know there was a story last year that one of the data that I mean I think articulated this for me it had nothing to do with Washington but my god it feels the same way for everyone which is you know around this voice the blues scandal with all the parents aren't buying their way in universities so it turned out that last year in Greenwich Connecticut fifty percent of the high school is taking the S. A. P. fifty percent of them had notes from psychologists allowing them to take the test on monitored over two days as opposed to four hours oh my gosh and I mean you talk about the average American right the average American looks that they say yep exactly that's the problem that I knew what I can't do a damn thing I mean I'm powerless these people were screwed me and and that Washington Washington complicit but it's more than just Washington yeah it's just Washington the media I agree not right for let's talk a little bit about China what's coming our way with China because China is not Iraq I mean we're not right we're not going to be able to we're not gonna be able to do anything with China and have them react the same way but they seem to really be hurting by these sanctions what's coming our way I like the way you put that because you know I mean trump with his two of his biggest foreign policy wins have been the same basic strategy they've been what he just did with Iran and then we get with Mexico when he said I'm gonna destroy your economy a little your head gonna spin if you don't actually tighten up the borders in both cases trump like this guy at the poker table with a massive stack of chips in front of it doesn't really matter if he's holding a two nine or pocket aces he just put all his chips then and you're gonna hold right but China is not gonna full right China's ability to say no to the United States is actually quite robust and so we are going to get this deal signed on January fifteenth this phase one trade deal the Chinese ascending Lucia to Washington DC lead trade negotiator and get signed in the markets will be pleased in care of some terrorists will be reduced as a consequence but that's far as it goes in my vehicle and this year we're going to have US China relations deteriorate on a host of fronts we've got this woman from while way that we have been talking about for months but she's about to go through her extradition hearing in Canada in just a couple weeks time the week after the phase one deal was signed up much more meaningful for the Chinese then the phase one deal could talk to their leaders you got Taiwanese selections this weekend gonna move in a more nationalist direction on the back of their solidarity with the demonstrators in Hong Kong Hong Kong the Chinese just appointed a new liaison to manage the region much more hardline and senior than the one they had previously appointed that's clearly not moving in a good direction you've got the weavers the ethnic minority Muslim minority one point five million of them in a re education camps and forced labor inside China and Congress bipartisan believe it or not one of the.

Eurasia Group Mike Lee michaeli president
Taking Stock of the Boeing Crash and Iran Missile Attack

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

03:55 min | 2 years ago

Taking Stock of the Boeing Crash and Iran Missile Attack

"So that was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets. Wasn't it no sooner. Had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in if if it knows those things are coming then something came that. The market's somehow were not expecting there was the missile attack last night they not really too who belligerent statement from President Trump is morning and somehow everything was fine. We've called the. Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this. She is a longtime Middle East analyst. Also now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Amy Walkman program. Thank you for having me. Let's do a quick gut check. You heard this news last night. I'm sure you as as I and many other people check the futures market. What was your? What was your initial reaction? Well I think that it makes sense that the markets calmed down afterwards. Of course wars were were hoping for a peaceful outcome for conflict resolution. But I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long road a Ho. Oh here on a very long stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic. This is if I could if I could go to my Donald Donald Rumsfeld dictionary. This is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes. The president was moderately diplomatic today. But there's so much yet to come There's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now of course. Gold is also strong because these were expecting a U. S. China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end. I do think that that hefty gold price reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second. Would you kind of make sense that. It's down hard today. long-term though I know that all the analysts are saying long-term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geopolitical risk to be had we still have tremendous unrest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see oil. Workers decide that they're going to join the anti-government protesters protesters or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States are ran in Iraq and the United States quote unquote. Okay gets kicked out. You could see sanctions on Iraq soil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran. And that would be a logical next step if things break down or you condo by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying thing about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states that benefit now because we have so many states that are producing the didn't used to the oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt. The problem is you know you and I we might not take a road trip this summer. Summer oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American. Stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up and of course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States. Okay so short-to-medium-term. What are you watching? Well I'm watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East. I think that's a very major risk. I want to see that the U. S. China trade deal comes forward and what form and then I think the markets you know The Eurasia group which is a geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geopolitical risk in the world. Today so I do think the US election depending on which way it swings it could be a major feature in financial markets. So I think we have to watch that very closely.

United States Middle East Amy Myers Jaffe Iraq Donald Donald Rumsfeld President Trump U. S. China Amy Walkman Iran Council Senior Fellow Producer The Eurasia Group
Market Update

Marketplace

04:07 min | 2 years ago

Market Update

"That was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets wasn't it no sooner had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in it if it knows those things are calm and then something came at the markets somehow we're not expecting there was a missile attack last night they may not really too belligerent statement from president from this morning and somehow everything was fine we've called Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this she is a long time Middle East analyst also now a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations Amy walking program thank you for having me let's do a quick got check your this news last night I'm sure you as I and many other people check the futures market what was your what was your initial reaction well I think that it makes sense that the markets calm down afterwards of course were were hoping for a peaceful I'll come up for conflict resolution but I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long row to hoe here on a very long and stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic this is if I could if I could go to my Donald Rumsfeld dictionary this is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes the president was moderately diplomatic today but there's so much yet to come there's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now course gold is also strong because we're expecting a US China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end I do think that that hefty gold price art reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second would you kind of make sense it is down hard today long term now I know that all the analysts are saying long term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geo political risks to be had we still have tremendous on rest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see or workers decide that they're going to join the anti government protesters armed or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States around in Iraq and the United States quote unquote gets kicked out you could see sanctions on Iraq's oil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran and that would be in a logical next step of things break down are you called at all by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states the benefit now because we have so many states that are oil producing the didn't used to be oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt the problem is you know you want a high we might not take a road trip this summer for oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up in the course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States okay so short to medium term what are you watching well I'm more watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East I think that's a very major risk I want to see on that that US China trade deal comes forward and and what form and then I think the markets you know the Eurasia group which is eight geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geo political risk in the world today so I do think the U. S. selection depending on which way it swings could be a major feature in financial markets also I think we have to watch that very closely your age group for co founder Ian Bremmer question your marketplace morning report all the time Amy Meyers Jeffery she's at the council of foreign relations in New York Amy thanks a lot appreciate your time your thoughts thank you

Trump: 'Ahead of schedule' on China trade deal

Balance of Power

07:00 min | 3 years ago

Trump: 'Ahead of schedule' on China trade deal

"President trump is in Chicago meeting with police chiefs today but on his way he told reporters that things are looking up for US China trade deal we're about I would say a little bit ahead of schedule maybe a lot ahead of schedule probably will sign it still this is Ian Bremmer he's founder and president of the Eurasia group so we're ahead of schedule it says Ian do we believe him in the sense that he's moving quickly to something he can announce sure we believe them in the sense that it's an actual deal that will bring the country's closer together on trade or technology or Hong Kong or South China Sea the answer is no the the Chinese recognize that the United States and from a particular under much more pressure than they were a few months ago given the economy softening given elections coming up and giving the growing impact of the trade war they're prepared to wait this guy out so what they have on offer is really exactly where they were several months ago it's buying limited amount of American AG in return for no escalation of of further terrorist and I don't think we are much more than that why would the Chinese be willing to wait and see what's behind door number two given what some of the democratic candidates for president and saying I haven't heard a lot of warm noises about China coming out any no that's true but they they do feel that trump is not to be trusted they feel them she is Jim paying has felt that he's given away a fair amount of political capital try to get a deal done particularly the Osaka G. twenty meeting this summer and it didn't work out for him and secondarily the fact that they don't believe that trump has a lot of ammunition left so it doesn't hurt the Chinese to play a waiting game it doesn't mean that the next president whether it's trump or whether it's a damn is going to be easy to work with but they do hope that they'll be more regularized more normalized relationship between the two and that's something the Chinese to prepare to wait on so we've been really consumed with things from all but Daddy's death in the raid to what's going on Argentine things like that so this may have missed the fact that China is having a little bit of a meeting right now going on the most import they have of the year the plan is going on how does present she go into that meeting what is his political support as it were with his own teeth between team I would say it looks like of the not very controversial I mean although a lot of people that are saying oh my god the Chinese economy is slowing that means we should expect to see big noises to see them stimulate the economy more insure this growth redouble efforts to expand employment they're not doing that they they feel comfortable going below six percent growth they feel comfortable with their present levels of corporate debt the allowing of some small number of organizations to go bankrupt but in a very regularized way this is not a country that feels like it is in any way in crisis mode if what what they're doing I would say is simply making sure that there's a conversation between those that want to have a harder line directly towards the Americans and those that want to see more reconciliation but this is not the kind of schism we've seen historically towards is it reform or is it you know retrenchment of state capitals in the torture an ism Shizhen pains way which is we're not politically reforming and by the way we're going to go our own way one technology it won't be aligned with the Americans we have our own way on architecture won't be alone with Americans that is a consolidated consensus view in China right now we will see that coming out of this planet part of president she's way which differs from the way of his predecessors really has been being much more bold in his language about the role of China in the world for many years we heard old we're not that big a country and yes this is a big prison she has a very different approach to were reports that some people with his own party were very concerned about that thought he'd gone too far too fast yeah I mean I like I remember when I was speaking at the Chinese embassy to the entire staff with the ambassador there in Washington and I was making the point that I thought your respective of what the Chinese government was doing on artificial intelligence that Shizhen pangs effort to say that we will lead the world by twenty thirty was a bad idea that that just P. R. perspective like why would you suddenly want that target on your back and get all these other countries including Americans focused on the fact that we've got a nascent real competitor that wants to knock us off in China and the funny thing was in that group and they were you know a hundred hundred fifty people there there were people actively I mean permanent staffers high level staffers of the Chinese foreign office vigorously nodding with that take so that there is a disagreement internally on how much the Chinese want to be assertive around this new found power in in in an environment where there's more of a power vacuum with Americans don't want to do as much when no one else is capable do the Chinese want to step up or do they want to still say no we're not ready for leadership we're still poor I think that the patriotism that she's in pain has been ginning up that we were a leading global economy until the nineteenth century the west took us over for a hundred fifty years and now it's our time again it works on the streets but it makes a lot of the leads in China deeply uncomfortable this is a president trump has been drawing back in various parts around the world and he's been very sort of a China when it comes to trade but he's made no secret the fact he doesn't want our troops in as many places doesn't wanna be asserting ourselves and say does that leave something of vacuum were encouraged prison G. in his direction well a bomb is done the same when we talk about how much Obama wanted a footprint in the Middle East and he was the guy that did the pivot to Asia didn't work out very well he's the guy that said I want to you know will surge in Afghanistan but we want the troops out we want to end the war in Iraq I think the thing that trump ads on top of that is his assertive indifference to long term American alliances and architecture that he believes those relationships are transactional and that provides a lot more space for the Chinese where they say you see this is the way it works you can't trust the Americans more than you can trust us all countries come out this only in terms of they're more limited national interest that provides more space for the Chinese to operate and it allows it makes other countries hard pressed not to hedge away from the Arab Americans in towards the Chinese who of course are writing the very big checks prison truck needs to get reelected next year he wanted very badly to what extent will he trim his sails and declare victory in retreat and what comes to US China trade he's already doing it I think that if you look at the and now instrument that he made a couple of weeks ago that you know fees a of the D. O. was already there when there was no such thing there was nothing sign comes because he feels a level of urgency why did he suddenly want to pull out the troops in Syria with such urgency what's he doing with the north Koreans looking for a third you know summit all around the world that's what you see from the president

Donald Trump Ian Bremmer President Trump Chicago United States China Hundred Fifty Years Six Percent
Boris Johnson's plans for Irish border checks threaten Brexit talks

BBC Newshour

08:06 min | 3 years ago

Boris Johnson's plans for Irish border checks threaten Brexit talks

"Rex it now and the British prime minister Boris Johnson says the reality of brexit is that they will need to be customs checks on the island of Ireland after the U. K. these youth and Mister Johnson denies reports that the UK's proposing a series of posts close to the Irish border to carry out customs checks off the brexit the key issue of avoiding a return of a physical infrastructure on the border between the Republic of Ireland which is an E. U. member state and Northern Ireland which will leave the E. U. has its positive the U. K. is the issue that has vexed this country for months question by the BBC's Nick Robinson today the prime minister dismissed some of the reports about a possible hold border in Ireland yesterday at the suggested that there would be a string of border use not only are rich bold but not fall back are you saying that simply isn't true yes that's not what we're proposing a tool you can say. people who think there will be a whole a bold and just a few miles away from the apps in old absolutely you know and then there were very good reasons why that would not be a good idea and I think everybody who's familiar with the situation in in it are the norm now then comes time why we would would pay for but for for for for practical reasons and and also you know for for reasons of sentiment that we typically take the on the star wedding continued questioning about border posts on the Irish border the prime minister said there must be some checks so Minh autumn say there should be no checks anywhere on the island via the net they call the holding of the border they say it will begin to principles Good Friday agreement people say forget made the call to be check somewhere if we're going to be in a different economic arrangements well I'm with the second group Nick because that's just the reality and I think that what we're coming up to now is as it were the critical moment of choice for us as friends and partners apart how we proceed because in the end a sovereign United country must have a single customs territory and when the U. K. withdrawals from the E. U. that must be the state of affairs that we haven't but there are plenty of ways in which we can facilitate north south trade plenty ways which we can address the problem. the U. K. prime minister Boris Johnson speaking to my colleague Nick Robinson what a short time ago I spoke too much talk about Ron who is the managing director of the Eurasia group in Europe it's a political risk research and consulting firm only the U. K. site there is a a suggestion view the details have been leaked all redundant because they come from an old paper from a couple of weeks ago and actually the government is fully committed to also kinda border US possible not a string of customs controls and not actually more detail around these proposals is going to be forthcoming over the course of the next few days so distancing frankly the government's position from the details I will be yesterday now on the European side I think frankly the suggestions the details from yesterday have gone down very badly the Irish government is if if you thought these are essentially equivalent to the kinda plans they would be to implement in a no deal scenario so the idea that the Irish prime minister could sell these in a deal scenario is is friendly politically announced officer in Dublin and then of course the role of the questions and concerns the east side has been talking about for a very long time what's the border fully open that call be controls on the island the filing and all those problems remain so I think the two sides of very far pulse at the moment when you say that the U. K. is distancing itself from what has been leaked is there any suggestion that the leaks form the basis of what the UK government is actually thinking yes they do I think the starting position for the UK government now different to Theresa may is stop brexit create consequences and changes on the island of Ireland not least the return of the border. and what the government is trying to do with its proposal is to soften the border dot will necessarily return is a result of brexit to reason may and had to go she ate all the rope it's had a very different approach in December two thousand and seventeen they committed to essentially no change on the island lies in full status quo and the way they deliver thought was obviously through this box stopping the backstop is is the vehicle that delivers both regulate realignment but also a single customs territory. Johnson now once the U. K. to be in a single customs territory Northern Ireland England Scotland Wales and believe that is absolutely essential for state sovereignty for the U. K. after brexit but obviously creates a north south border albeit one not softened so so the acknowledgement on the pulse of the U. K. government on the Boris Johnson that they will need to be customs checks what is it that we are specifically talking about all the differences in terms of the kinds of goods that are being looked at is agriculture being seen as separate from manufacturing goods actually what's new about the leaks yesterday's more details about how the government believes the border will operate in a world where Boris Johnson delivers an agreement and ultimately a long term vision and the vision of brexit bodies I can tweak how the distal free trade agreement in that unit how does the Irish border operates and the U. K. believes that will need to be controls on either side of the border that regulate power it's not regulate things like rules of origin that there will be a degree of regulate tree equivalent. the European side has many problems with this I think firstly from that perspective you cannot separate how regulations and customs everything on the European side stall and works on the basis of its customs framework so in order for that to be any trade with the E. U. thank you I need to engage with the E. U. customs framework a second big problem is awful the government's proposals to work is very dependent on a lots of exemptions and it's not Claire the easier side is willing to make those exemptions third big problem is it relies on technology in the U. side but very clear about the kind of technology the government is talking about is not going to be ready until the medium term so this gives you a flavor of some of the ideas that are a problem for the ears site based on what the government's currently proposing and in terms of the bigger picture all of approaches and asks you choose we know that the E. U. side to saying that they're willing to continue to talk. since the patience is running thin that if you if you want to start from a base of zero and build something completely new there's very little time to do that I think really now the next few days absolutely critical to the government's plans involving away thought dork feels it can engage in it so I think what we'll see from both sides is this idea of a tunnel when negotiators are such begin a lock themselves away and trying to hammer out a legal text the ultimately results in a deal among European heads of state in a few weeks time at this October European Council so the next few days will give us a sense of whether a tunnel is a realistic possibility or not if it is in the terms of the deal in October increase but I think in order for it to happen Boris Johnson is going to have to be you pretty much fully towards the E. U. position which essentially means keeping all them island in the U. customs territory I think that's difficult for Boris to do. it was a much Tabarrok mon managing director for the Eurasia Group in

Boris Johnson Prime Minister Brexit REX
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:32 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Big river steel for seven hundred million U. S. delays trading low in the pre market and co started by hotel data company STR for four hundred fifty million in cash wrapping things up Phil Morse was upgraded to buy over at bank of America Celanese downgraded to neutral at Goldman Sachs and analog devices was upgrades for weight over a key bank live from the first to break the news desk on the line. bill thank you dear live breaking news of your Bloomberg cave squawk on your terminal S. Q. U. A. W. K. and that's a Bloomberg business slash Tom and John thanks so much room for on time king were focused on the markets will get to that in a minute right now we're thrilled on the seventieth anniversary of what my our ought to Meredith Sumpter with this of Eurasia group Meredith John I believe general I can't remember the blur the morning the president tweeting out congradulations president Jean on the seventieth anniversary translate that how is it treated by the Chinese and how is the president's congradulations given the span of seventy years in US Sino relations. the president's offer greetings and congratulations on the seventieth anniversary I'm sure will be warmly received in Beijing but it does not fundamentally change the underlining constraints of these the world's two largest economies finding some kind of reconciliation between their two economic models so look we're we're we're looking at the prospects for some kind of not a full fledged deal but even some kind of of modest agreement or arrangement when we'll hook comes to Washington next week that would at least sort of ease an armored escalation of tears that's what she's in pain is really focused on too he has is not interested in any comprehensive deal with president trump I he views president trump as weak beholden to the ballot box even further weekend after the the threat of impeachment and impeachment proceedings which Eurasia group believes will result in the house voting to impeach the president to replace at a seventy five percent probability on that so what we we see the Chinese doing essentially with and and I know Tom you in general so watches as well there's been reports that you China is going to move forward with some soy bean purchases they are moving forward with you know some further slight openness financial sector they're doing things to allow for an easing of current tensions but they're not interested in fundamentally coming to the table with the kinds of structural reforms that from Washington says is necessary for a long term agreement to take hold I think in Sumpter speech on that was called a complete cave by the United States Meredith would not be somewhat disappointing if that's what we do get after spending eighteen months to aggressively take on the Chinese to do what many people agree is the right thing to do to get them to open up to get them to level the playing field wouldn't be somewhat disappointing that they caved and absolutely achieved very late. tell. that's exactly right John and and and this is why we have this sort of paradox in Washington right now where you have a president because of the political risk from impeachment he is primed to find some kind of arrangement and keep in mind he's got to keep those Republican senators on his side I and they're telling him you need to stave off on the hour escalation of terror so he's got that on the other side he's got nothing from Beijing on the fundamental asks that Bob white Heiser has been putting on the table consistently since September twenty seventeen and Beijing is just waiting to see who's gonna be elected in November twenty twice so I think the risk here for investors is not so much was happening the trade space but the real game is going to come outside of the trade space because the trace basis kind of static right now so you got a look at the at the national security or the the non trade areas that's why the announcements on last Friday and you know continued over the weekend of potential increase US scrutiny of Chinese companies listing on US markets it's that kind of onboard escalation outside of terror of that we're gonna watching fourth moving forward I would suggest that maybe what we could do is is half the present throughout the first baseball at the brewers national game tonight that would be a good start. motive just to wrap things up I'll go to question with you is often to get insight as to what is happening with the Chinese press I'll be ready in three to find out from you just have this impeachment inquiry of speak plus he's playing in China right now what's the story the Chinese people being told and how's it resonating with the government. at in this week if the focuses less on the impeachment and more on the seventieth anniversary and so that there hasn't been as much speculation in Chinese press about it it do it's a very foreign concept I think for the Chinese people to look at what they would presume to be the most powerful political operator in the United States the most powerful country of the world being humbled in this way but you know if you talk to Chinese contacts in the negotiations around the negotiations this just further confirms for Beijing that time is on their side and that as you know president trump deals with these impeachment proceedings and the political embarrassment to him of being a peach even if it's not going to be removed from office you know from Beijing's perspective they're using this time to double down on economic resiliency so as you know tariffs go up with US they look for other ways to get tears to come down with other trading partners are looking for ways to reform their economy in in China's own view of how its economy should be reformed to strengthen it for a long term confrontation because they know regardless of what the present is removed from office regardless of who wins in November twenty twenty they know they got a long term economic struggle with United States and the preparing for though some coronas your where this is ever sharia of miles of the Chinese revolution America Sumpter with Eurasia her features of six spaces here double more earlier but they've been really an overly round up five up six SP X. futures Dow futures of fifty one six sixteen point three four we were at seven basis points in yield now of six one point seven three percent is tangible and with that dollar strength really looking at.

Phil Morse seventy five percent seven three percent eighteen months seventy years
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

11:25 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Daybreak Asia in Bremmer, head of political risk consultancy, the Eurasia group, some new word now that the government headquarters will be closed today. And as mentioned, some of the key roads are still close. Some have been opened up. I was just out on queen's road, earlier and managed to get through quite smoothly to our offices here in central, but it will be difficult for people as they start to move on to work a little bit later this morning. As some of those streets still are blocked the chief executive as we've just heard here has apologized. And what really rankles some is that she's not also apologized for the police actions. And she still maintains that the expedition Bill is necessary. So it suggests that there's still a lot to play out here in the coming hours and indeed days here in Hong Kong. All right. We continue with our special coverage of the happenings here in Hong Kong. Let's a data check now what's happening in the Mark. With our Doug Christner. Doug, what he's seeing Brian. This is going to be the first opportunity for markets in Asia to react to a, a weakness in the US equities, we had some eco data here in the states, showing some resilience that seems to have undermined the case for a dovish turn by way of the fed one key question those policymakers meet this week in Washington. Will they avoid giving a clear, not the possibility of a rate cut ahead? That's the million dollar question. The NASDAQ composite the hardest hit in the Friday session, we were done about a half of one percent, the US ten year treasury last quoted at two point zero eight so that's where the action's going to begin in Tokyo in about an hour and forty one minutes from now. Still lingering the latest batch of China data industrial production at a seventeen year low in the month of may fixed-asset investment also below forecast on the other hand, retail sales of estimates. The offshore Chinese Yuan right now slightly weaker against the dollar not by much. We're at six ninety three one seven. And we're WTI crude oil is concerned, the active contract at fifty to sixty seven pushing up about three tenths of one percent or so that's markets. Let's get global news from Ed Baxter. All right. Thank you. Douglas protesters. Hong Kong still maintaining their presence in some major transportation arteries in the downtown area. Whether or not police will move in to move. The protesters out will have to be seen even with chief executive Carrie Lam withdrawing the legislation for extradition and apologizing. Protesters say she has to resign the government headquarters will be temporarily closed today. The US says it will protect shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf secretary of state. Mike Pompeo says the Trump administration is weighing options, Saudi Arabia's crown prince is not blaming Iran for last week's attacks on the tankers. While Boris Johnson refused. Take part in debate of candidates, Salih the Tory party. Jeremy hunt has stepped up and said he'd served Boris Johnson oily. If Johnson were prime minister Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Whose wife Sarah has been charged with misusing state funds and a fifteen thousand dollar fine. Global news twenty four hours a day on air and tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than one hundred twenty countries. In San Francisco, I'm Ed Baxter. This is Bloomberg rish. Right. Thanks very much for that. Let's get to next it's it's a line. He Chen, Dr ten is a it's seventy two director of domestic policy studies there as well and the Hoover Institution research, fellow thank you for joining us. What are you making of events in Hong Kong of with us? Seventy two hours. Well, it's truly remarkable because they, you know, all all coming, so quickly after the thirtieth anniversary, of course of the tenement square massacre, and so much of this really needs to be viewed through the lens of, of how China wants to be perceived in the in the context of all of these different global factors. The US China continuing trae tension teaching Ping's own internal perceptions of his leadership in China. And of course, you know, Hong Kong has been the epicenter for efforts to demonstrate the value of democratic peaceful protests for well, these last several years so so so much of this, that scene in the in the context of the grayer questions, surrounding China, and we're trying to is currently on the world stage. You know when you look at Hong Kong, I it's quite a delicate, the balance of power because Carrie Lam felt bold enough us. Let's back up a little bit the protests that we had last Sunday of a million people. And then the protests yesterday were amazingly, peaceful. I mean just remarkable by by normal standards police referred to a riot. But you had people all over the city, and there was no looting absolutely none whatsoever. So those were peaceful, and, and yet, the chief executive was in bold enough on Wednesday to act as though this was going to be pushed through and the police then became quite aggressive in the protesters to. And then shortly after that, while you started to see the establishment politicians in Hong Kong turn. So it wasn't just the opposition. Now, it was the establishment politicians, no not in dramatic fashion, but enough so that a lot of pressure was put on, on Carrie Lam. And then you even had a meeting. On Friday in Shenzhen, where the mainland met with with Caroline and everything changed. So it shows you that people power is still very much alive here in Hong Kong. And you wonder how much China is concerned about that. Well, I think they're concerned about it. I think they're concerned about it for few reasons. First of all, you know, over the last several years, there have been a variety of efforts by the Chinese in Beijing to ratchet up pressure on Hong Kong, and, and this is, you know, this, this latest sort of incident, although clearly, the, the, the, the official line from China, still is that they are not intervening in, in what, what essentially is what they see to be Hong Kong matter. At least this is their public commentary. What is obviously clear that this is all part of a of an effort from Beijing to, to ratchet up pressure until Friday draw mainland, China and Hong Kong closer. And what you're seeing is a resistance from many in Hong Kong, not all, but many in Hong Kong, who don't like that. And obviously believe that when Beijing made it pledge in nineteen ninety seven. Have two systems with Hong Kong for fifty years, that they very much would like many in Hong Kong would like for that to be to be actually the cakes and, and you're, you're seeing this tension now then between what Beijing is trying to do. And what a lot of people on Hong Kong what they want, they want to seize that promise respected. And in some ways this latest discussion over the extradition law is, is part of the peace of Beijing, trying to turn up the temperature and they're being resistant for many. In Hong Kong. There is a buddy of thought, that, that's the duchy, Carrie Lam almost of second guessing Beijing. And she's one did come up with this legislation in order to prove that she was loyal subject, I suppose of the center, what's your thought on that? Well, I don't know. I mean some of it is needing to read what's happening on the ground with happening in Hong Kong. And obviously McLane is in a better position to do that. In a lot of ways, then Beijing. But the notion that she is not acting with, with some measure of influence, or or some measure of of control for Beijing. I think is, is folly obviously, I think she is still very much closely tied in responsive to Beijing one. But yeah, I mean, I think she is much more well positioned to determine what the best way is seed. And, and she also has to be savvy to that as well, in terms of understanding the conditions on the ground and something is not gonna move forward because of popular opposition and that type of opposition significant she's gonna be in the best position to read that. You know, it's such a blackbox inside the communist party on on. Why certain policies are enacted so with that meeting in Shenzhen, and then with, with Carrie Lam backtracking on this. Do you think this puts China in a more positive light does it put it in a in a stronger position negotiating with the US or a weaker position? What's your view? It's an interesting question quandary for the for the Chinese, I, I don't know that it puts them in a particularly weaker position. It's certainly doesn't strengthen their Schneider. I, I guess what I would say is that the challenge that China has he is really in my mind more directed toward towards Xi Jinping. And the question there is, you know what is the external perception of fees power base of the external perception of how much she has consolidated power in China? And does this cause people to question? Whether in fact, he is, you know, ever as much in charge as he was before there might be a tendency to see this as an example of a way in which power has degraded. I, I don't necessarily think that's accurate, though. But it is it is the case that everything that happens in, in, in Hong Kong, and everything that happens with respect to what she is done. Recently has to be seen through the lens of the ongoing tension between the US and China on trade and indeed, more broadly tension to the US China relationship, but, but this particular incident in of itself. I, I don't know that it affects too much the ability of can ping to, to get a deal done with President Trump or the view from the United States of China's ability to consolidate its own power. I, I don't I don't think there's a huge impact in that sense. The other thing is, of course that we had the Ninety-two act would between Hong Kong in the United States, which was also being dangled in front of the Carolina insensitive. It was perceived that Hong Kong's, autonomy, a diminished, then it could be treated the same as mainland China, and that will be subject to all the, the full effect of the trade will, how much do you think that concentrated the mind of the Chinese? Yeah. I think that was a factor. I mean, obviously, you know, part of this too, is that many in the United States have quietly, maybe some cases not so quietly begun to pull away from Hong Kong. We've begun to see that the writing on the wall as it were notwithstanding. All of it guarantees in all of the, the previous conversations about Hong Kong remaining distinct here in the United States, I can say this view is buying large that Hong Kong is has already moved and is continuing to move in a direction that at least for the United States, it's very difficult to distinguish between what happens in Hong Kong, what happens in China. And some of that has to do.

Hong Kong China Carrie Lam US Beijing chief executive Asia Shenzhen Ed Baxter Eurasia group Boris Johnson Doug Christner Salih Bloomberg Twitter Mike Pompeo Jeremy hunt Bremmer
"eurasia group" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

WCBM 680 AM

13:16 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM

"Of Rush Limbaugh, weekdays from noon to three for America. Buck Sexton is back. Speak of embarrassment. Liberal geostrategists, in Bremmer of Eurasia group who is more knowledgeable than a lot of other lives. I've I'm familiar with an I've a long time ago, actually met, Brian Bremmer and talk to them for a while about some geopolitical issues. He is he's smart. Little dude. He's little, but he's not a he's not an individual of good judgment does not understand the big picture, and that I think is a pretty good way to set up what happened actually he got into a whole bunch of hot water. You don't know this guy, Ian Bremmer. He's the president of the Eurasia group, and he tweeted out a quote on Sunday to President Trump. And this is this is just a case study in how Trump derangement syndrome, both can instantaneously infect Twitter and then also you see the media will sell us defy what is fake news? Or there will be people who claim. Oh, will even if it's not true, it rings true of our from. That guy who's the Michael Wolff the author of fire and fear is no fire in the fire and fury. I think so he has a new book out siege about Trump. We'll get we'll get to that a bit of it later on. Back to Ian Bremmer here. He tweeted this out and represented it as a, quote from President Trump, and the quote was well, what he wrote was President Trump in Tokyo, quote, Kim Jong. Un is smarter and would make a better president than sleepy. Joe biden. Now, this was then shared and it wasn't shared by just a bunch of people that you've never heard of it was shared by congressman Ted lieu of California noted Trump deranged for left loon CNN contributor, Ana Navarro car daynuss, who I would note is among the dumbest people on television. That's you know, if it were IQ contest between her, and Joe Biden, it's going to be close. It's going to be close. She's among the dumbest analysts on television and not a nice person, either for those curious, I worked with her much to my regret in the past, and she shared it, and then all of a sudden it comes out. Oh, wait a second. That's fake. You could even say, you know, say it was fake news. And then Bremmer who's live pretends not to be pretends to just be geopolitical strategy and expert journalists. There's always this facade that they wanna put up of the ob- that objectivity gives them greater narrative. Power, meaning they can create a more potent anti-trump narrative, if they have this, this pretense of being objective, they're not partisans. They're telling the truth. CNN with the apples and bananas. We're not an anti Trump get Trump network. We're just calling calling balls and strikes man. We're just doing the truth. No. They're not. They're absolutely not. It's obviously ridiculous for them to claim. Otherwise. But Bremmer defended the tweet I and said it was obviously ludicrous and yet kind of plausible and he wrote, especially on Twitter, where people automatically support whatever political position they have. That's the point eventually had to apologize said my treat yesterday about Trump. Referring Kim Jong unto Biden president was mentioned just should have been clearer. My apologies. Now. I you know, I don't know why he would you know, I don't know why he would think that. That's a funny. That, that's a pretty funny joke. I could write a really stupid thing and pretend that it was Okaz Cortez. And it could be really, really dumb in less. It was so blatant that even Okaz you Cortez would understand that. It's a joke. You know, you're running the risk of. Misrepresenting misrepresenting something. And I think that, that that is what happened. But, you know, it Trump deranged world, particularly among the elites people like Bremmer who think very, but somebody who's in gonna savage guy who thinks very highly of himself trust me in Bremmer in that category. But in that in that Melia in that strata. Sound like a guy who walks on wearing an Ascott when I use these words, but those are the kind of people that will believe this stuff because they really think that Trump is capable of essentially saying anything, and anything that will support that belief anything that will go to. Oh, yeah, Trump is, in fact, the worst person ever, they will they will sign on for that essentially right away. They don't think through it beyond that now onto the foreign policy challenges right now, because they're really going after Trump on this. And I think it's because of what happened recently around. But there's also look, let's, let's be let's be honest about the whole new cycle right now. The media has gotten used to having a major store you have to concoct it, even if they have to re essentially a retread go back onto what they've already done the path, they're used to having some kind of Muller, quote, unquote, bombshell to either pre report on report on her post report on meeting, we think this is coming this has happened. Oh, let's talk about this thing that happened that has been the cycle of the news media. That's really been the beating heart of most of the mainstream news outlets for over two years now. But in the post Muller report world in pre inspector general port. There aren't enough Lee. Leaks to sustain them. There aren't enough ways for them to write the same story over and over because they need some little carnal of news, they need something to justify telling us the same thing. They've already told us a million different times. And that's why I think there's this focus right now on foreign policy, because one in doubt, the establishment will go to one of their favorite areas of criticism. They can't criticize Trump on the economy. They sound stupid. I mean they try sometimes it doesn't particularly work, but on North Korea and Iran, you're seeing a lot of Trump is over his head. He's over his skis. He's doing all this bad stuff for one reason or another. They're, they're upset at Trump and upset it how he's handling all this foreign policy, and let's start with North Korea. Here's what the president has said about what's going on there, because they're already the lives even in a case of? National security that you would think everybody could put aside their own feelings of partisanship. You know, it'd be such a win for the world. And I really mean that if Trump's North Korea gambit were to come through, but, you know Pelosi's running against him. You know that Trump's angling for a deal there, Democrats who other fingers crossed it won't happen because it would not only be politically problematic for them. It would also main that their claims that Trump is, is terrible and the worst and can't understand foreign policy, would look particularly hollow. Right. So there's, there's a lot riding on this for Democrats for all the wrong reasons. But here's what Trump says about the current status of what's going on with his North Korea negotiation play. We continue to hope that Yemen. Kim seizes the opportunity to transform his country through nuclear Asian is a country with tremendous economic and other potential. The United States also remains committed to the issue of abductions, which I know is a top priority for prime minister. Upi. So what happened is the North Koreans fired off some on midnight. They fired off some short range ballistic missiles, and this is a violation of resolutions, and it's clearly a provocation. I'm not here to tell you that things that are not I'm not going to say this is good. This is progress. This is to be expected. I'm here to say, okay. May maybe this, maybe this Trump negotiation isn't going to work. We don't know yet. It's too early to know. But there's no loss here. The president has not gone on an apology tour around the world. He did not go before Kim Jong UN and, and Val and be submissive. He did say he loved him, which is weird again. It's weird. I'm just going to say things are what they are. It's a weird thing to say. I don't know why Trump went that direction and I give him a lot, a lot of because one he's the president despite all the forces against them, and I'm not too. I think that to be an unconventional and mold breaking president. You're gonna have to do things that make people think. Whoa. Is that really the way that this should be done with all of that said, though? North Korea may not turn out the way that it's supposed to North Korea may not be some big win for the administration, but on, like what we saw with Obama's foreign policy. It's not going to be a catastrophic loss either. He's taking his shot and trying to do something good. I wish he would focus more on or at least have more success. I think there is some administration focus on the border. I wish that Republicans would get their act. Together. You know, it's going to be the big achilles heel for the Republican party going into going to the elections, it's going to be healthcare again. Here's a really simple question, folks as we sit here. And you know it's a pretty look. It's a it's a Newsday where there's no giant news stories out there. It's a lot of sort of second tier level stories. There's nothing that's really moving the needle in, in a big way in the new cycle of this would be a perfect opportunity. Republicans actually had their stuff together to come up with, you know, some healthcare approach that would allow for people to know what the Republican party stands for what does the Republican party Stanford, healthcare, free markets. Okay. Great how this is going to be a problem. I in the midterms going to be. Problem. Now, I don't know what the Trump with the Trump campaign suggesting for health care. I do know that every, every time I get a Bill from a doctor's office. I just wince it just feels like it's more expensive and gets worse all the time. They're less effective. I spend less time with the doctor and my Bill is just bigger and bigger now, every, every year, somehow I'm in a worse position, vis-a-vis the medical community and thankfully, I don't have. I don't have a wife. I don't have kids, I don't have a family that for so many of you who have to deal with all that. I don't know how you do it so expensive so time consuming paperwork and nonsense. Their opportunities here for Trump and the Republicans released present something really worthwhile and sell it Trump is a sales a gifted salesman. That's one area where I think that his skill set if anything is undervalued or is under appreciated. He's much better at conveying to the public why something is good. Or why something is bad? He's very good at. Just that at persuasion and healthcare is such a big area for more Republican attention right now. We're just letting the media dominate the narrative with all this stuff about foreign policy and, and Trump in Iran and North Korea. And here's here's what part of this, that, I just won't lose I refuse to lose sight of for anyone who supported the Obama administration and supported Hillary for president to think that they're in a position to lecture the rest of us about. About what is going on with the Trump administration's foreign policy. This is just crazy. Every major foreign policy challenge, every area of foreign policy kind of foreign policy hotspot under Obama got worse and everything Hillary touched. Turn to lead. Except for things that enrich, Hillary and her husband that always told to turn to gold. But every foreign policy issue was was a loss, if not a disaster. Those same people that want to tell us Trump should be doing announced. It's really just not. It's just crazy. Sean Hannity weekdays afternoons from three six talkradio.

President Trump Trump president Brian Bremmer North Korea Trump administration Bremmer of Eurasia group Joe biden Kim Jong Twitter CNN Rush Limbaugh Republican party Michael Wolff Obama Eurasia group Buck Sexton Bremmer America
"eurasia group" Discussed on KGO 810

KGO 810

02:53 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on KGO 810

"Pay for its nuclear program while so North Korea fired off a couple more rockets, then we fired off one of our missile interceptor things. Right. And claimed it was just a routine maintenance plan for. Do we have to do that? Don't we just say that? That's what we can do just keep that in mind. All right. Another news. Having your appendix removed is pretty common thing. And the appendix is long been thought to be an organ that is lost its original function through Lucien. But now new evidence finds that might not be the case, I think it might. Well, be the perfect example of the hubris that afflicts every generation. Leftover something just. Figured it out yet. So most be useless. Says every generation of humans. It's every point in human history. Amazing scientists from to this generation knows everything that will ever be. That was very Chris Farley. Like of you who was. Tribute to the big, man. All right. Scientists to universities found that those who've had their appendix removed are three times more likely to develop Parkinson's disease compared to those who have not had their appendix removed three times granted is still a very small percentage. Wis that's astonishing those who don't know. Joe? My mom is afflicted with Parkinson's and has been for a number of years, and it's been rather devastating for her. And so if we could get the mysteries of that terrible disease that would make me very happy. Researchers are looking into the possibility Parkinson's has something to do with a protein that affects the way Parkinson's develops. They're still not exactly sure how all this connects. But they're looking into the gastro intestinal tract in all sorts of ways to see if there is a connection while the Email line is like the text line. So far this morning weighing in. Moment to moment, for instance, Sean rights, what if the appendix is where we keep our soul. Metaphysical for this hour of the day a little early to be that high. That's your news. I'm Marshall Armstrong and Getty show that catch into the nation. Wake come up bake. Speaking of Ian, Bremmer who we like runs the Eurasia group who look it up. We have on the show now. And then he just tweeted the US in Iran are on a collision course, I hope not. Plenty of crises. Yeah. North Korea Orion in the midst of a trade battle with China that you are going to back down from I'm sorry and the CC. Crisis..

Parkinson North Korea Parkinson's disease Chris Farley Lucien Marshall Armstrong Ian Eurasia group China Joe Bremmer Sean US Iran Getty
"eurasia group" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

02:17 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on KCRW

"Choice, perhaps we can negotiate a different agreement, adding China and others. Or perhaps we can't in which case we will outspend and out innovate all others by far, Ian Bremmer is founder of the political risk consultancy. The Eurasia group you heard that he end discuss we are right now certainly out spending all of his mostly out innovating, non certainly we talk about conventional military capabilities, but the transatlantic relationship is getting a lot weaker. And when you talk about unwinding the INS agreement which looks almost certain to happen, and I don't see us renegotiating a new one anytime soon, the countries that are going to experience the brunt of that are going to be on the European continent. And you're gonna increasingly go their own way, you're going to weaken that relationship their commitment to NATO itself will be lower and that obviously makes life a little bit more challenging the president did use this phrase last night in this. Regard calling for all bold new diplomacy. Maybe that could help fix that with Europe. Well, there was a bold new diplomacy with North Korea. Right. And I mean, it's certainly true that the United States in the North Koreans have broken through in terms of diplomatic engagement while. We don't take they're going to get rid of their nukes. Certainly that means they're less of a hermit kingdom. They're engaging with the South Koreans economically because of that great through their gauge with the Chinese more. And you know, I I think the likelihood of wars a consequence at part of the world has gone down. But bold new diplomacy with the Europeans. Just means transactional is amid means that there's less trust. There's less loyalty, and that becomes more expensive more expensive when you have to work to convince countries to do what you want every single time on every issue because they're either getting something from you for it or because they're going to get hurt. As a consequence. Ian Bremmer is founder of the Eurasia group global risk consultancy in. Thank you. My pleasure. David. Dow futures are up by less than a tenth of a percent. The benchmark ten year interest rate in America is down two point six eight percent..

Ian Bremmer Eurasia group Europe founder Koreans North Korea China United States president David America six eight percent ten year
"eurasia group" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

02:12 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on KCRW

"Perhaps we can negotiated different agreement adding China and others. Or perhaps we can't in which case we will outspend out innovate all others by far. Ian, Bremmer is founder of the political risk consultancy, the Eurasia group you heard that in discuss we are right now certainly outspending mostly innovating non serving when you talk about a conventional military capabilities. But the transatlantic relationship is getting a lot weaker, and when you talk about unwinding the INS agreement which looks almost certain to happen, and I don't see us renegotiating a new one anytime soon, the countries that are going to experience the branch of that are going to be on the European continent. And you're gonna increasingly go their own way, you're going to weaken that relationship their commitment to NATO. It's so will be lower. And that obviously makes life a little bit more challenging the president did use this phrase last night in this regard calling for all bold new diplomacy, maybe that could help fix that. With europe. Well, there is a bold new diplomacy with North Korea. Right. And I mean, it's certainly true that the United States in the North Koreans have broken through in terms of diplomatic engagement while. We don't think they're going to get rid of their nukes. Certainly that means they're less of a hermit kingdom. They're engaging with the South Koreans economically because of that right through their gauge with the Chinese more. And you know, I think the likelihood of wars a consequence of part of the world was privy game has gone down. But bold new diplomacy with the Europeans. Just means. Transactional ism. It means that there's less trust. There's loyalty and that becomes more expensive more expensive when you have to work to convince countries to do what you want every single time on every issue because they're either getting something from you for it or because they're going to get hurt. As a consequence. Ian Bremmer is founder of the Eurasia group global risk consultancy in. Thank you, David checking the market screens here. US stock index futures are all down by about a tenth. Percent or less..

Ian Bremmer europe Eurasia group founder United States Koreans China NATO North Korea president David
"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:38 min | 3 years ago

"eurasia group" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Subscribe on apple podcasts from Bloomberg world headquarters. I'm Charlie Pellett. Roku shares have their best. Eight and fourteen months after saying the number of active accounts in the fourth quarter, rose forty percent over the last year giving media investors confidence that viewers are doubling down on screaming platforms pivotal research group says Facebook is likely to see another rough year in two thousand nineteen. As many of the company's managerial choices in its early years. Continued to play out negatively Facebook shares did events today by just about one tenth of one percent. Stocks rallied but gave back some early gains small caps in technology shares leading the way amid the resumption of trade talks with China SNP up seventeen seven tenths of one percent industrials up ninety eight four tenths NASDAQ up eighty four up one point. I'm Charlie Pellett. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Bloomberg best through to Brosseau at Baxter continue. From the Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, this is Bloomberg best. So what could go wrong in twenty nineteen? Well, according to Eurasia group, the global geopolitical environment is at its most dangerous in decades and add Bloomberg's Tom Keene and Francine lacrosse spoke with Eurasia group president, Ian, Bremmer two thousand nineteen is not in and of itself the big riskier because the global economy is going, well, but our ability to respond to the next shock when it gets like we did in two thousand eight two thousand nine after the big downturn. Like, we did after nine eleven not just the United States, but a global coalition of the willing even the Russians supporting us, whatever. The next shock is. We don't have the capacity to respond, and it's because of these bad seasons because pretty much every geopolitical development than we monitored your age group for the first time since nineteen ninety eight is heading in a negative direction. We're losing our resilience military port. You're thirty page report. Maryland, Sumpter points out the great. Unspoken, which is the instabilities at sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue, how Dr Bremmer gauge the instabilities there in the ability in some way of this unique president to leave office, but it is the first time in our report that we've ever had a US domestic risk on the list that to be fair it's down at number five and given the size of the United States by far the most important powerful influential economy in the world saying it's number five means it's not what we're most concerned about. But we do have to recognize that this year with the investigations coming after Trump his family his business his willingness individually to react by escalating against those that are trying to hurt him. And those things that are closest to him using the powers of the presidency in ways that could well be unconstitutional. I think you have to recognize it's a possibility. And if that does happen that goes. Goes into the court system. It goes to the supreme court. I believe that if that occurs, and we have a constitutional crisis. Ultimately, the judiciary is a hell of a lot more powerful than one guy. In fact, I would argue that in two years of President Trump by far the most important takeaway has been how strong Americans have been. We have to recognize. It's a question. It's not four or deigned that American institutions come out fine and the US in two thousand nineteen is the democracy. It wasn't twenty eight. Okay. If there is a constitutional crisis in the US, what does it mean for US foreign policy does it change? So does the president distract from zone concerns by attacking China? I know I don't think so at all I think his distractions are alternately domestic he has lots of shiny objects that he can play and his need to go. After people is at home, that's his interest. That's his experience. He's pulling out of Syria dope, perhaps more slowly than he would have liked to. He wants to pull out of Afghanistan. He's happy to use drones and bombers for the. Small strike. But there isn't about wagging the dog this is actually about what foods to do to keep the media attention focused on him nerves domestic on China's specifically, you'll notice that he has never said a bad word about Xi Jinping, the Chinese president almost putting like he wants to get to a deal that he can cut on China, which means that I suspect by the end of first quarter. We're going to have Trump announcing that we're in a better place with the Chinese. That'll be compartmentalized on trade. We'll still have big problems with them on technology will have big problems with them on security, but like with the North Koreans nothing has been accomplished. But we're looking at a second summit with Kim Jong UN I think that's what Trump intends to do with the Chinese going back to your top political risk, which is bad seeds. Where you basically say there's an overwhelming majority of geopolitics dynamics that matter which are now headed in the wrong direction. What will put them in the? Right direction. Does it need to get worse. Does there need to be a catalyst? It clearly has to get worse before it gets better because these things are so structural. And when I say things are heading in the wrong direction. We're talking first of all about the populism nationalism. That's undermining so many of the legitimate governments. The institutions the political leaders across the advanced industrial economies. That's not just true in places where they've been voted in like in the United States and in Italy. But it's also places where the salvage moment was voted in the centrist for the globalist voted it. And there are a lot weaker than they used to be think about what we're seeing today with Merckel in Germany with Macron, of course, in France and the geopolitical relationships US Russia, China within the Middle East within Europe, the transatlantic relationship, not one of those is moving in a direction that looks stabilizing there unrolling geopolitical recession looks like, and it's where we raise your group is your courage to go off the radar. I wanna go one two three four all the way down to ten Nigeria. Topper is discussed that quickly. Well, I mean, it would be higher than ten if people care more about sub Saharan Africa. But it is the largest economy. We have a big election coming up. It's going to be very close four elections coming up soon that really for Indonesia really, a huge body of the world that that's right. I'm twenty dollars seems less important in terms of general elections globally than twenty eighteen was even in the emerging market space, but in Nigeria it's a close election that could easily be seen as being stolen and neither of the outcomes are going to be useful in the near term for the market indicators. There's going to be significant.

president United States Bloomberg China Charlie Pellett Facebook Bloomberg interactive brokers Roku Eurasia group apple Trump Nigeria Maryland Kim Jong UN supreme court Indonesia Afghanistan Dr Bremmer
U.S. Sanctions On Iran Could Impact How Trump Responds To Killing Of Jamal Khashoggi

NPR's World Story of the Day

04:25 min | 4 years ago

U.S. Sanctions On Iran Could Impact How Trump Responds To Killing Of Jamal Khashoggi

"Support for this podcast and the following message. Come from the fresh market, offering prepared sides desserts in ready to heat meals for your thanksgiving celebration, plus fresh Turkey spiral sliced Honey ham and more details in recipes available at the fresh market dot com. More than a million barrels a day of crude oil have been taken off the global market. Thanks to the Trump administration's decision to sanction Iranian oil exports. The White House is looking to Saudi Arabia to help replace that lost oil, which means it's relying on the Saudis just as their countries implicated in an international scandal. NPR's Jackie northern reports. The US sanctions are intended to take a Ronnie and oil exports off the global market. The administration is even warning that countries that import Iranian oil could face stiff penalties that's causing concern about where they will get their crude in the future. Jeff shot is with the Peterson institute for international economics. And so as the United States official. Went around the world. Are you doing that countries should stop buying wealth from Iran, they had to as part of their argument ensure those countries that there wouldn't be an oil shock, and that prices would go up in those countries who would be disadvantaged in an effort to prevent an oil shock? The Trump administration is allowing several countries to continue buying oil from Iran for at least the next six months, and it's continuing to pressure other oil producing countries to make up the shortfall. And that's where Saudi Arabia comes in Saudi is the main country that uses looked words because only Saudi has significant spare capacity cliff Cup chin is the chairman of Eurasia group, a political risk consultancy company. He says Saudi Arabia is the only country that can easily ramp-up oil production. Adding an extra half a million barrels a day in short order more over the long term the administration felt confident Saudi crude could help avoid a disruption in the global oil. Market after the Iranian sanctions took hold. But that was before the death of journalist Jamal kashogi in a Saudi consulate in Istanbul Cup shin says now, the Trump administration is under enormous pressure to penalize the Saudi government for its role in kashogi staff league Shoji incident makes the Joe politics of this episode more complicated. The issue we're gonna see unfolding is sending an appropriate message that this is unacceptable without being so harsh as to Venezuela to the point where they say tack with us we're cutting production. That's the tight rope that were walking here. President Trump has threatened the Saudi government with severe punishment. If it's leaders order could show. Jeez. Death raising the specter of retaliation Saudi Arabia has used oil as a weapon before during the nineteen seventies oil embargo, but Rachel MBA. An adjunct fellow at the center for a new. American security says the Saudi government supports the Trump administration's tough stand on Iran and could use the bump and revenues from increased production. My view is that the Saudis are unlikely to use that oil weapon because their focus is so much on being a stable provider of fuel to the global economy. Now, they might provide it in smaller volumes or more delayed on they do it in less coordination with the United States. Either way. The Peterson institute shot says, he's not sure it's a good idea for the US to rely too much on Saudi Arabia's spare production capacity to make up for the Iran shortfall. He says right now supply and demand are balanced. But what happens if there is another emergency that takes significant amount of oil off the market, then we could have a different situation and a sharp spike in oil prices. So even savvy oil can't guarantee that prices. Won't rise. Jackie Northam, NPR news. Support for NPR and the following message come from Cirque du so lay crystal a frozen playground of world-class ice skating and stunning acrobatics. See it live at Capital One arena from December fifth and ninth. Tickets available now at Cirque du so lay dot com.

Saudi Arabia Trump Administration Saudi Government Iran United States NPR Peterson Institute Jackie Northam Donald Trump Chairman Jeff Shot Capital One White House
U.S.-China tensions derail Qualcomm deal

Marketplace

02:40 min | 4 years ago

U.S.-China tensions derail Qualcomm deal

"Ten minutes, with a look at Wednesday traffic then at four thirty on, all things. Considered the president of the Iowa pork producers association will discuss the market uncertainty over tariffs in the very first segment of. Today's program again all things considered, starts at, four. Thirty, here, on key weedy FM eighty eight point. Five San Francisco and Katie we I- FM. Eighty nine point three north highlands Sacramento This is marketplace. I'm KAI Ryssdal continuing with at least part of the theme. Of the, program today that there seems episode seems to be. A step back in global trade tensions but some damage has already. Been done we present to you. Now, the American semiconductor giant Qualcomm the company had. Found itself in the crosshairs of the still brewing US China traits bad it's. Forty four billion dollar deal to buy a Dutch chipmaker having been approved by every relevant global regulator except China Beijing had been dragging, its feet for months on this thing and today Qualcomm said the heck with it and. Walked away you've been hearing talk about the non tariff ways China could retaliate qualitative is. The term of art yeah this is one of them from Washington marketplace's Scott Tong explains the Qualcomm cases already a lesson in uncertainty for American businesses if China's involve firms. Never, really know if their plans are going to go through and that makes companies risk averse, says business. Consultant Daniel Rosen at the rhodium group when a firm and, for For that matter all firms get, a irrefutable sense that politics is gonna. Play a huge role it makes them hesitant to make. Investments that they would otherwise make in this trade spat Beijing has vowed, non-tariff quote qualitative. Pushback what's, that mean well slowing up deals and licenses holdups at customs website blocking surprise safety checks it's all happened. Before June Blanchette Crompton group advisors American firms in China it's. Qualitative toolkit, is pretty robust and runs anywhere from shutting down. Your retail stores too much more complicated and costly measures in that. Is thrown a monkey wrench into. Your, incredibly complex supply chains but for China pushing. Too hard is risky it needs foreign investment says Michael Jackson at the Eurasia. Group to him scuttling Qualcomm deal undercut that argument and that's a message that goes out to the business community not just in the, US but in Europe and other markets and hurt hurts Beijing Credibility as a market Claire and a, rules based player. So this is really a test of whether China wants to, play business hardball it's certainly, knows how to in Washington and Scott Tong for marketplace.

China Qualcomm China Beijing Scott Tong Kai Ryssdal Michael Jackson Beijing United States President Trump Sacramento San Francisco Blanchette Crompton Iowa Daniel Rosen Washington Eurasia Katie Europe Consultant