35 Burst results for "Eurasia"

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:39 min | 5 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And radio. I'm David west, who will next week, President Biden is headed over the Middle East, but last week he spent most of the week over in Europe at a G 7 meeting and then a NATO summit as well. We're a lot got done focusing on Ukraine and Russia. One of the attendees of that, of course, was Boris Johnson, who's in the news right today. Ian bremmer founder and president of the Eurasia group and of G zero media is also the author of the power of crisis, how three threats and our response will change the world. So Ian, thanks for being with us. Before we get to G 7 and NATO, let's spend just a minute on Boris Johnson because news just crossed that the 1922 committee, which is the back benches as I understand of the Conservative Party, have just decided not to change their rules to sort of vote on no confidence for him until next week. So it looks like he may have a few more days to go. But what do you make of what's going on with Boris Johnson right now? Yeah, he was by far the weakest leader at the G 7 and everyone knew that before the latest scandal got made headlines. That on top of how poorly the British economy is doing inflation worse than the United States and Europe. He's not only lost all of his popularity in the country. He's lost most of his popularity in his own party, a majority of conservative voters now want Boris Johnson to resign. He is hemorrhaging cabinet ministers and members of his coalition on a daily basis. I think the only question is whether he sticks it out to an actual second no confidence vote, which he will lose or does he resign right before that when he sees that the writing is on the wall, but it's surely at this point his tenure is written in days, not even weeks. So in let's come back to those summits. Those two meetings at a meetings over in Europe last week. You've written about them both. And I'll pick and do a little bit. You like to say, it's G zero because we can't get together. Is it at least G 7 now? Because the G 7 seemed like they actually were together. G 7 absolutely. And this was a response to the Russia invasion. This is a very different summit than any of the G 7s we've watched over past years. It wasn't about the bilaterals. It wasn't about the communique at the end. It was a crisis summit. And all of the attendees responded to that crisis. And one thing that we can say is that they all have the same basic view. They're all doing everything they can to support the Ukrainians. And they're doing everything they can to punish the Russians. Now, for some, that's politically and economically more damaging than others. And for some, it support for Ukraine means more economic support and less military support. But the alignment for the G 7 and of course the alignment for NATO and here including Asian allies like Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, all of whom unprecedentedly were in attendance. There's no question that what Putin has done over the last four months has built a much stronger coalition of advanced industrial democracies around the world to ensure that this does not stand. Much more profit coalition, but both meetings, G 7, NATO, I daresay had an audience of one. It was Vladimir Putin. Did it make any difference to Vladimir Putin? Is it going to change his behavior? I think it's going to change his behavior. I think it's going to make him more aggressive towards those countries. I mean, he's not going to leave Ukraine. That's pretty clear. So I mean, if the intention of the sanctions is to force him to back down, he's not backing down. If the intention of the sanctions is given that he doesn't back down, that you are going to severely punish the Russian economy, a structurally, and that you're also going to send a message to other countries around the world that this kind of behavior won't be tolerated. And that the Ukrainians don't suffer tragically in vain. I think that message is being sent. And you see that NATO is expanding that rapid deployment forces are going to go up within one year from 40,000 to 300,000. The Germans are spending 2% of GDP going forward on defense. These are all messages to Putin, not just symbolic messages, but they deeply undermine his own sense of security and I expect in the same way that he has ratcheted down the gas that's being provided from Russia through Nord stream one to Germany. You'll see other steps that are made by the Russians like on cyberattacks. Espionage escalation, disinformation attacks. We may not be talking as much about Ukraine in 6 months time. We will be talking a lot more about the Russia confrontation with NATO. And a message clearly being sent to Vladimir Putin in Moscow. There were also some messages being sent to president Xi in China, I daresay, as they added, for example, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand. What about the reaching out? And by the way, in the strategic framework they mentioned China specifically. They did, and last time there was a strategic framework for NATO, which was back in 2010, China was mentioned as a partner. This time China's mentioned as an adversary how quickly these things change and a threat to a rules based order, something that G 7 talked about an awful lot as well. But the Chinese don't like at all the fact that the developed world is increasingly aligning and coordinating their policies, at least in terms of national security, Vis-à-vis China. And the Chinese in turn they had their virtual summit the week before the BRIC summit Putin, of course, was there. But so too, a lot of developing countries and the Chinese are trying to expand the bricks into the BRICS plus. What does that mean that they want to see the developing world increasingly aligned against the advanced industrial economies. Now, this isn't a new global Cold War because there's a lot of economic interdependence, but it is a lot more confrontation. It's a lot more sand in the gears. One thing I would say, though, where the summits weren't as successful is that everyone wants to have something that competes with China's belt and road. This massive effort to devote trillions of dollars of investment to developing countries around the world. Well, NATO and the G 7 have been working on a competitor plan, but the money's not there. And Biden announced a nominal 200 billion figure, but I mean, frankly, the DFC and the need for the Americans to come up with that funding. He's not going to Congress for it. Right now, I don't see that cash. So they're heading in the right direction in terms of trying to invest more, but they don't yet have the ability to make it work. You know, always so great to have you on. Thank you for being as Ian bremmer of the Eurasia group. Coming up

Boris Johnson NATO President Biden Ukraine Ian bremmer Eurasia group G zero media Russia Europe Vladimir Putin David west Putin Conservative Party China South Korea Middle East Ian New Zealand cabinet
"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

04:20 min | 7 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Bronco in New York the world in very likely Russia's Vladimir Putin was surprised if not amazed how Europe generally pulled together to respond to the invasion of Ukraine There's a new book out today from a hard nosed geopolitical risk analyst who says that cooperation can fix our biggest problems in bremmer president of Eurasia group lists those problems as global health emergencies the climate crisis and the rapid development of new technologies such as artificial intelligence His book is called the power of crisis in David always good to talk to you All right some interesting examples right Here in 2022 of people coming together cooperation across national barriers and one of your inspirations here is cooperation between two people one still with us one no longer president Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev the former Soviet leader He never thought they would come together but look what happened Look what happened the first time they actually met in Geneva Reagan had asked Gorbachev It was kind of a strange question He said if we were attacked by aliens you defend us right And Gorbachev said yeah sure And Reagan said well I would too And the funny thing is that actually it was a breakthrough moment for arms control for a world where we were facing weapons of mass destruction and we had the Cuban missile crisis And when you think about climate change today when you think about the pandemic today you recognize these aren't national challenges These are fundamentally global challenges but in an environment where the politics both inside our own country as well as globally are so deeply dysfunctional And it's the crises themselves that are creating the momentum for breaking through these difficulties You point out I mean this can't just be driven by goodwill and good intentions We may need some more international infrastructure Well it's not that we need more We need them to be different I mean the reason why our international institutions work so badly right now is because they're outdated You know one of the things that I remember when Trump got rid of nafta and created the USMCA it was the Mexico Canada agreement It was one of the smartest things he did because the old nafta agreement which was a fantastic trade agreement when we had it by the time Trump became president wasn't even reflecting 50% of our trade because it became mostly services and data Well that wasn't the nature of the trade relationship 40 50 years ago but it is now And so you needed a new institution That's what we're looking at globally We don't have architecture to respond to artificial intelligence challenges You need a world data organization for that The World Trade Organization won't do that We don't have big organizations that are in place that allow us to respond to the pandemic The WHO was way too small way too weak So you have to actually create this architecture So what jump starts the actual process of doing that I mean look it starts with your book but what do we got to convene a global conference or something Well the pandemic made a big difference Europe is a lot stronger coming out of the pandemic as the EU than it was coming in That's because they recognize that COVID-19 couldn't you couldn't respond to it as individual European nations The climate change is doing that And what's interesting is the United States and China the two largest emitters aren't the two leaders in responding to climate change But a lot of young people around the world are demanding that change Banks are deciding that in ten years time we won't make any money if we invest in fossil fuels so they're moving away from it And that in turn is forcing corporations to make a difference And the Europeans and the Japanese and mayors and governors in the United States and suddenly you have enough investment at scale that you can see a pathway towards a world in the next generation where a majority of our energy doesn't come from fossil fuels That's an extraordinary thing to be able to say And it's come as a consequence of this crisis The Eurasia group's founder and president Ian bremmer his brand new book is called the power of crisis a three threats and our response will change the world Ian thanks David good to see you Stocks are pointed up Dow features up 364 points 1.1% S&P futures up 1.4% NASDAQ futures F 1.7% now Home Depot stock is up three.

bremmer Gorbachev Reagan Vladimir Putin USMCA Eurasia Mikhail Gorbachev Ukraine Ronald Reagan Europe Russia Geneva New York COVID nafta David Trump World Trade Organization Mexico
Jack Posobiec Joins Andrew to Dissect This Disastrous Ukraine Aid Bill

The Charlie Kirk Show

01:26 min | 7 months ago

Jack Posobiec Joins Andrew to Dissect This Disastrous Ukraine Aid Bill

"We just got through with Ukraine, a man who has a lot of thoughts on Ukraine. I'm sure, is Jack besovic, human events daily, Jack welcome back to the Charlie Kirk show. Andrew, thank you so much for having me on. Jack, I sort of teased you in a false way there because we can get to Ukraine. And maybe we'll get that in segment too, because I know. We can talk about the America last spending bill that was just pushed forward by 70%. 70%, 149 of two 11 in the house GOP voted for this thing. The last launch into it. Launch into give me your take. Well, I don't usually quote Tupac, but I might have to drop a few bars because Tupac, I think, famously said, you know, they got money for wars, but they can't feed the poor, right? And we're in that situation right now where literally I've got friends with newborns that newborns or babies, and they can't find baby formula. They're like, you got grandma's circling, you know, hitting up targets and walmarts across the Midwest across Pennsylvania. And we can't feed our own children. We can't prevent incursions on our own southern border. But we're going to spend 40 billion of your dollars and send it overseas to a war in Eurasia where there is no American direct national interest. That's your government. Right. That's exactly right. That's a miracle last. And it's a bipartisan consensus, which is the most infuriating

Ukraine Jack Besovic Charlie Kirk Jack Andrew GOP America Midwest Pennsylvania Eurasia
"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

03:04 min | 8 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Well They say that Ukraine is not a separate country that it's another Russian Orthodox dominated country But from a strategic standpoint it is the nation on the north shore of the Black Sea And dugan says that Eurasia as he calls the future Russian Empire Eurasia has to have complete control of the Black Sea And what would happen in Asia in that point because Russia and China have fairly good relations or they're pretty close Yeah dugan does not believe that Eurasia the great Russian Empire will be complete until China has been basically destroyed that if only Hitler had never invaded Russia then together Russia and Germany and Japan could have formed a fascist alliance that would have dominated the world with Russia as the strongest partner from as he puts it from Dublin to Vladivostok I just wonder with that sort of ideology driving Putin How do you or how does anyone negotiate with that Well it's tough I mean it's clear it's delusional thinking it's messianic Apocalyptic It's highly religious We're seeing all these qualities and Putin lately to a degree that we haven't seen before this idea that he's on a religious mission to basically universalize the Russian Orthodox faith through power and violence As I said at the end of the column it's a delusion but when dictators with nuclear weapons have delusions we have to pay attention to them That's David van Dre Lee columnist for The Washington Post Thank you for being with us Thank you so much Deadly tornadoes swept through parts of the Midwest and the south in December entire neighborhoods in western Kentucky were wiped out Hundreds of people are still displaced and grieving the loss of loved ones personal items and life as they knew it One initiative started by a folk singer is helping to replace musical instruments and it's given away more than 700 so far from W E Ku sherri Lawson reports Behind large white garage doors that a warehouse turned music venue and Dawson springs Kentucky Sterling Wallace and his wife Karen stand in awe They've just been handed a guitar to replace one of theirs that was.

Eurasia Russia dugan Black Sea Putin China Ukraine Vladivostok David van Dre Lee Hitler Asia Dublin Germany Japan The Washington Post Midwest Kentucky sherri Lawson Dawson springs Sterling Wallace
"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

WTOP

03:05 min | 9 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

"Samantha Devin associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at London's chatham House tells us about the youth and inexperience of the Russian forces The Russian army that is going into Ukraine is made up mainly of conscript not only constructs We do have special forces there are the so called Wagner elite forces there are some Chechen brigades but the bulk of the army going in there are conscripts These are young boys who are badly trained Many of them seem to be from the pictures we're getting of the prisoners of war seem to be from the Central Asian parts of Russia These are parts of Russia where the population is of mongoloid origin So they're not the Slavic brothers that the Ukrainians and Russians would see each other as These are boys who are going in there some of them don't even know they're going to war Some of them thought they were going on an exercise And when they realized that they were having live munitions being fired at them they first of all did not understand what was happening And this is again typical of the Russian warfare when it starts going to war in its near abroad or in its own territory The soldiers themselves don't have a clue what they're doing And that is a big tragedy These young boys the Russian boys are dying in dishonor The Ukrainian soldiers who are dying are dying heroes The Russians their parents will be lucky if they ever know how they really died and if they do get their bodies back As an analyst that looks at it from all sides what are your thoughts about some type of no fly zone Do you bristle at the west for not being willing to do that The President Biden specifically That's a really hard question because it is very hard I've been analyzing this part of the world for the best part of 30 years Of course from a real politic point of view And there fly zone is inviting disaster It's inviting direct confrontation with Russia There's an emotional side and emotions are running pretty high in Europe right now where people are thinking how can we really watch a country being destroyed on our borders But there's something really interesting that I would like to say about this no fly zone It would clearly put us on the path to confrontation with Russia or get as much closer to real armed confrontation between NATO and Russia with all the implications of that can have And there's something else I think it was two days ago Jens Stoltenberg the NATO secretary general said NATO will not be implementing a no fly zone over Ukraine The next day Vladimir Putin continued with his threats saying if anybody no fly zone will be considered to be an act of war Now if he was really serious about deescalating the rhetoric he would have answered Jens Stoltenberg's declaration by saying I'm glad to see that NATO has decided to refrain from the no fly zone He could have found a way to also have more conciliatory rhetoric Was he ups his rhetoric This again does not bode well for any negotiations.

Russia Samantha Devin Chechen brigades chatham House Russian army Eurasia Ukraine Wagner London army NATO Biden Jens Stoltenberg Europe Stoltenberg Vladimir Putin Jens
"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

WTOP

01:54 min | 9 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

"Estimate today These WTO news At 6 11 Russia continues to hammer Ukraine 11 straight days now a third round of ceasefire talks scheduled for Monday Andrew lotion is a fellow at the Europe Russia Eurasia program At the center for strategic and international studies WTO's Dimitri sodas ask him how it all ends One of the things that we haven't seen at this point is some way Putin can accept and exit I think that's of course a conundrum of his own making You know he launched a war that was completely illogical that has led him into a dead end They're not going to be very easy ways to get him to climb down I think he's going to unfortunately have to figure this one out for himself But perhaps in the next days and weeks some signaling from The White House or from other western partners could help to identify the possibility of easing sanctions or easing some of the responses in a step by step manner that would be paired with changes to the position of Russian military forces on the battlefield And the removal of those forces from Ukraine What do you make of the nuclear threat from Putin He made one statement right before the invasion talking about how anybody who interferes with him would experience things never before seen in history And then of course has put his nuclear forces on alerts Right What Putin has done is essentially taken his nuclear forces from the lowest possible level of readiness to the second lowest level So it's basically this level three out of four We don't want him to get to numbers two or one And so this is a threat that needs to be carefully considered But at the same time if the United States we were to raise our readiness in response to kind of meet the level that Russian forces are at now that really would risk feeding the spiral of escalation And I think that explains why so far the United States hasn't done that And that is Andrew lotion who is a fellow with the Europe Russia erasure program at the center for strategic and international studies 6 13.

Andrew lotion WTO Dimitri sodas Putin Russia Ukraine center for strategic and inter Eurasia Europe White House United States
"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

WTOP

02:28 min | 9 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WTOP

"More of that in Kyiv Targeting civilians in populated areas This morning for more about the situation we turn to Andrew Wilson A fellow at the Europe Russia Eurasia program at the center for strategic and international studies with his take What we've seen in the first 5 days is that Russia hasn't been able to secure the quick victory that it thought it could But so far they've only committed about half of their forces And so I think that's one of the reasons why we're starting to see this change in tactics that Russian military units are recognizing that they have to do something differently to take a hold of Kyiv and some other key cities And so I think going forward what we're going to see is an increasing number of attacks that could be targeting urban centers And that will take us into a new bloody phase of the conflict Vladimir Putin's tactics and that of his military they are even difficult to talk about You talk about setting fires cutting the electricity in Kyiv and other cities knocking out the Internet Can you go into that What you may expect we're not saying it's going to happen I think what Putin is going for here is to achieve regime change into force the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms And I don't think he's going to be able to achieve either of those goals The Ukrainian citizens Ukrainian armed forces aren't going to let them do that And so I think what that's leading us toward is potential conflict where we might see Russian artillery firing into populated areas Certainly launching new cyberattacks to bring down Ukrainian infrastructure and just increase the pain and the cost on Ukrainian civilians which would be a war crime But something crucial you said there in the end you don't believe Putin achieves his goals however nefarious they may be That's correct I think the entire invasion that Putin had launched was an utter miscalculation to believe that the Ukrainian people would accept a new government imposed upon them by an aggressor state is just really being out of touch with reality And what we've seen already is the desire for not just the military but ordinary citizens to defend their homeland I mean the countless videos of Ukrainians working to put together these molotov cocktails and saying that they refused to leave their homes that they'll fight for as long as they have to I don't think that's something that Putin had expected And I think he's quite surprised And that's why I'm quite nervous about how this might proceed because as he recognizes that he can't achieve the aims that he thought he.

Kyiv Russia Andrew Wilson Putin center for strategic and inter Eurasia Vladimir Putin Europe
"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:58 min | 9 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I spoke to president zelensky of Ukraine to offer the continued support of the UK Because our worst fears have now come true and all our warnings have proved tragically accurate And the head of the Eurasia group Ian bremmer is expressing concern this could grow to be much larger than Ukraine There are Russian separatists from a breakaway republic in Moldova called Transnistria who made their way to Moscow a couple of days ago asking if Putin would recognize their independence They didn't go without being ordered to do so by Putin but Belarusians are changing their constitution on February 28th and will no longer be neutral It will no longer be non nuclear Now China's refused to condemn the move saying Russia has security concerns created by the United States but Japan's prime minister female Keisha says he will impose broader sanctions for Russia and that they will include semiconductors The Chinese embassy in Ukraine is asking Chinese citizens to start registering for flights as it sets up charter flights to evacuate them Chinese holding passports of Hong Kong Macau and Taiwan are included In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter This is Bloomberg All right Brian back to you All right Ed our guest is Frida ahmir head of propositions at our cheetah with us to talk about the markets So free to it's pretty volatile out there right now You can imagine some people getting short the market so it would have been whipsawed pretty good here with this ferocious rebound on Wall Street Is that is that something you think will hold that people are buying now on this dip You know I think hi Brian good morning and I definitely think there's volatility in the market now and definitely I think with Ukraine But also since the beginning of 2022 we've seen definitely short term volatility in the markets overall Not only I think this has been brought on by the pandemic and then now with the Russian invasion of Ukraine But I think with any investor looking for opportunities you know these debts and this type of volatility brings opportunities So you know I think now is the time to really sort of look at really increasing possibly your equity exposures and really looked at active management in order to meet your total return targets for the year for your investments So I think either well of volatility is something that we see the spikes in the markets and the volatile volatility but it's a great time to as you say to look at possibly buying back in on those dips and really taking advantage of that volatility and those market opportunities And to meet your returns When you look at the volatility though yesterday the big falls that we did see particularly I guess here in the Asian session when this news first broke it was kind of looking for where do you go a safe havens and gold came back into play but is it worth looking at some other factors too if we're going to continue to see months of volatility the likes of the yuan for example You've got a whole true to your investment your objectives and your strategy when you talk about institutional investors right So you're really looking at long-term to return and really your long-term target so I think there's opportunities in the equity market When you did say investors are looking at safe havens and there's a sort of flight to gold and oil but in the end I think you know when you've got these bits from the equity markets and you're looking at sort of the opportunities at the end of the day the Dow did draw you know we did open the market very drastic drop in the Dow But by the end of the day it was actually in the green at the end of the day So you know I think there is opportunities especially in equities and I think when I look at really where there's opportunity lie I think if you look at the technologies and innovation I think there's definitely Potential Sure but that suggests that we'll continue in an upward trend with these corrections However I guess I can ask you kind of a point blank question that everybody will get the picture on Will high oil prices cause a recession And if that's the case then you'd probably make more money on the downside You know I'm just saying no I achieve a class by any means but you know one can't predict whether high oil prices I mean I think oil backed off It was in a hundred backed off slightly at the end of the day But I think we're already starting to go to an inflationary era right So we definitely had to change for as we enter now a period of inflation but I think we will see spikes I think definitely but I think definitely for me I think the opportunity to lie in the equity markets and buying on those debts and taking advantage of the small and angels and possibly some stock market while you can get that type of volatility in sites So two points I guess what are the fallen angels and just more broadly with higher oil prices So that's going to hook the consumer though Do you not see people holding cash Well I mean I think you know look I mean definitely when you left it I think people are already holding cash I mean you know some of the large funds are already quite high in cash in the portfolio So I think now is the time where you're going to see people really looking standing on the sidelines or that have been on the sidelines and looking to take advantage of some of those lower prices and get back in When you look at the.

Ukraine president zelensky Ian bremmer Transnistria Putin Chinese embassy Ed Baxter Frida ahmir Russia Eurasia Brian Keisha Moldova Macau Moscow Taiwan Hong Kong Japan San Francisco UK
"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:57 min | 10 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Continues Not since the 1980s have we seen these sorts of reversals Bloomberg is fastest with the numbers and analysis The fundamental story is really solid It's really kind of a balancing act The bird The fastest numbers and analysis you trust I'm frankly deeply skeptical that the Russians are truly going to pull the trigger on an invasion Part of the reason for that is because frankly what we've seen in the last few weeks has been the strongest display of U.S. led multilateral coordination that the world has seen since after 9 11 in prema for Eurasia group the president there on the prospect of an invasion into Ukraine and innovation that the Russians continue to deny And he thought of futures unchanged until the S&P on the NASDAQ were down 20 We're down about a tenth of 1% on the NASDAQ 100 Into the bond market yields are higher by a couple of basis points to one 93 96 It gets your attention to the front end through one 30 of a couple of basis points there Not just the U.S. and Europe too in Italy We are up for a 7th straight session yields higher on battalion ten year and with that Euro dollar just a little bit lower You wrote all of that currency pair negative a third just about holding on top to one 14 And how do carbons we come down after 93 Brent level to $91 a barrel This is an important moment We speak often with French hill Republican from Arkansas and now on the GOP and really the state of Arkansas politics away from all that's going on in his Washington we need to note that he's the most popular congressman in America Valentine's Day because he is the congressman of romance Arkansas You come out a Little Rock and go up around 5 to romance 'cause have you ever delivered an envelope to romance Arkansas French hill with Valentine's greetings Well you will want to know.

Bloomberg Eurasia U.S. Ukraine Arkansas Italy Europe GOP Valentine Washington
"eurasia" Discussed on TIME's Top Stories

TIME's Top Stories

03:18 min | 10 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on TIME's Top Stories

"If they are negative, then athletes coaches media and other staff will remain in a pseudo bubble for their entire stay. They may only use dedicated transportation and dine in designated restaurants. Everyone will be tested daily and expected to isolate immediately if they test positive. No one can leave isolation until they test negative twice within 24 hours in between. These measures aren't foolproof, however. It's not clear, for instance, whether local volunteers and support staff for the Olympics, bus drivers, food service personnel, healthcare workers, performing the testing, will also be required to remain within the bubble, or whether they will be allowed to return to their homes each evening. The bigger the bubble, the more opportunity you have for something to go wrong, says Tarek Kirk sell senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins center for health security. And it's more difficult when you have something so transmissible like oh Macron. There's a lot at stake for Chinese officials, both politically and from a public health perspective. Their management of the pandemic will inevitably be compared with the way the Japanese government handled the Summer Olympics just 6 months ago during which 865 reported cases were associated with the games. If major outbreaks occurred during the Olympics, it will be very public proof that a zero tolerance approach even a dynamic one is not the most effective way to control transmission. Even if China's zero COVID policy succeeds at keeping Olympics visitors safe, this approach has potentially dire downsides for the overall population in the long term, including a lower level of immunity to the virus. Once locked down are eventually lifted, people could still be vulnerable to infection and more concerning, serious disease. While 87% of the Chinese population is vaccinated, this high rate may not confer as much protection as it suggests. Recent studies show that one of the most commonly used Chinese developed vaccines did not produce enough antibodies to neutralize the omo crot variant in lab studies. As a result, some experts predict that reaching herd immunity in which most of the population is protected, either by vaccination or by having been infected with COVID-19, will be much more elusive for China than many other countries. Because UM tends to cause less severe disease in vaccinated people, some experts say it could help some populations in which it circulates widely to reach herd immunity more quickly. And hopefully, with less disease and death than could be expected from previous variants. From that perspective, stamping out the virus wherever it flares up might provide a temporary, though costly and labor intensive solution, but not necessarily a long term or durable one. In a recent report, the risk assessment firm Eurasia group whose president writes a column for time, warned that China's policy will fail to contain infections, leading to larger outbreaks requiring intern, more severe lockdowns. A Macron's stunning ability to spread so quickly and efficiently will pose obstacles to China that no other Olympics host country has faced. With such a high level of transmission even rigorous testing could miss cases that spark outbreaks. A Macron is the ultimate challenge to.

Olympics Tarek Kirk Johns Hopkins center for healt Japanese government Summer Olympics COVID China Eurasia group Macron
"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

01:34 min | 10 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Could get walloped if Putin turns off the tab If Putin were to do it now would be the time Russia sitting on $630 billion in reserves and gas and oil prices are high But Russia is also dependent on the European market where cells nearly three quarters of its gas Handing glory Stein director of energy at the Eurasia group Caesar could be long-term implications for cutting Europe off There would be an immediate concerted effort by the European Union to permanently reduce gas reliance on Russia Which obviously won't solve a problem this winter but over the next few years that would have pretty strong consequences Glory Stein says the opening of Nord stream two the multi-billion dollar pipeline from Russia to Germany could be canceled immediately as well And he says it's not like Russia can just redirect and sell that gas to energy hungry countries like China The pipeline from Russia to China isn't big enough So that would take many years to fully redirect maybe even decade and of course China will look at this as well as that Well what if our political relationship with Russia breaks down And they stop sending us their back In the meantime at sea there's an armada carrying liquefied natural gas heading to Europe From Asia North Africa and elsewhere And there are just a couple cold winter months left this year where homes need to be heated After that Putin loses a lot of leverage if he wants to weaponize natural gas during the crisis.

Russia Putin Glory Stein Eurasia Stein Caesar China European Union Europe Germany North Africa Asia
"eurasia" Discussed on On The Media

On The Media

01:51 min | 10 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on On The Media

"Years, at least. Very successfully. Their species lasted far longer than hours has. Yeah. We have another 200,000 years to go before we catch up with it in the end of tools. They were living very successfully in these Woodland environments being omnivores eating plants, catching animals largely by ambush hunting. And they developed this incredible muscular physique for dealing with animals at close quarters. And if you wanted to compare and Neanderthal with a modern human in very broad terms, and the wrestler and the modern human is a long distance runner, completely different physics. And these long distance runners were used to open environments where they could catch animals using projectile technology. And they enter Eurasia at a time when the climate is actually hitting hard and the Woodland has been overrun by step tundra. Step tundra with animals like reindeer, the world is changing completely. And my view is that the long distance runner could handle that, well, much better than the wrestler. If instead of getting cold at that moment, the climate had got warmer, more humid, the Woodland would have expanded the expense of tundra. Perhaps you and I today and I say this with the greatest respect would be the end of those discussing the disappearance of those others who turned up in Europe and couldn't make it. 5, thank you very much. My pleasure and you're always welcome to come and visit us. I will. Clive Finland is director, chief scientist and curator of the Gibraltar national museum. He's also author of the book, the smart Neanderthal, cave art, bird catching, and the cognitive revolution..

Eurasia Clive Finland Gibraltar national museum Europe
"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:56 min | 11 months ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"If they're shutting down cities you're gonna have this sort of spike and then pull back and spike and pull back The kind that we felt in the United States suddenly you get back in China and of course that means that we're going to continue to have supply chain challenges across the world in 2022 but also means that inflation has the ability to persist longer than you otherwise would have expected In Bremen there the president of Eurasia group and chief zero media from New York City with Tom Keane and Lisa Brown with some Jonathan Ferro your price action close to all time highs in the equity market at 15 on the S&P 500 futures positive a third of 1% and NASDAQ 100 futures up two tenths of 1% And in the bond market Tom another lift for treasury yields after yesterday's move of 12 basis points were hired by three basis points to one 65 95 on tens in the United States just a note for you A news conference taking place a virtual news conference at 5 p.m. I assume UK time for the British prime minister Tom On the pandemic back to take place a little bit later You think we're going to see a few of those in the coming days as well no doubt from The White House as well Right now and as well understood as we saw Ian bremmer with Elizabeth economy yesterday on China that doctor bremer like a magnet tracks qualified people to the Eurasia group to generate their top ten risks for any given year This year's nuanced brilliant list includes Iran We get an update from Henry Rome who is with Eurasia group Henry Rome of Cambridge Henry Rome of his journalism at the Jerusalem post gives us the immediacy of the moment Henry Rome what I know is there's worries about drones in the air flying in I believe it's to Baghdad in danger Give us the immediate right now of drones and the danger of drones from Tehran Sure Well good morning and great great to be here again I think what we've seen over the past day or so with the anniversary of the assassination of Qasem Soleimani of course from a couple of years ago The Iran backed militias in Iraq flying these explosive drones at bases that house U.S. forces Now I think the real risk here is the ever present one that you get U.S. forces killed or injured in some of these attacks and then pressure on the Biden administration to retaliate to try to show that there's a cost for this kind of activity Now there's a lot of ambiguity with drones like these about whether they're ordered from Iran or whether these are the actions of the local militias But I think the concern overall is real Henry help us with our stereotypes we are all molded certainly of my generation by 1979 and permanent damage of our relationship with Iran Give us the update What is the number one thing Americans get wrong about Tehran and all of Iran You know I think the number one thing is that despite that image kind of seared in our collective memory the Iranian leadership today is quite rational in the sense of making cost benefit calculations when pursuing its policies They might not have the same kind of way of looking at things that we do certainly in a different ways of assessing costs and benefits But when you ask questions like why and under what circumstances would they ramp up their nuclear program why or under what circumstances would they seek a nuclear weapon What is their policy around the region I think it's easy to get caught up in a lot of the rhetoric which is fiery is explosive but I think when you look at the actions at least over the past several decades here you see a pretty consistent through line of a fairly sober weighing of costs and benefits And I think we're seeing that today with the ramp up on the nuclear program and the fairly imperiled nuclear talks Henry there's an issue of this being a regional problem And then there is the more geopolitical risk that you're Asia group seem to identify in their latest report of risks When you talk about a potentially less calm year for Iran where there can be a conflagration of some of these tensions what's the broader read through to the geopolitics of 2022 Yeah so I think we were a bit lulled to a false sense of security last year given the kind of on again off again nuclear talks I think the real key to stability in the region are these negotiations And then negotiations aren't going well I think the real pivot point here will be likely over.

Henry Rome Iran Eurasia group Tom Keane Jonathan Ferro United States Eurasia Ian bremmer Jerusalem post Lisa Brown Qasem Soleimani Tom China Biden administration Bremen Tehran bremer treasury New York City
"eurasia" Discussed on WBUR

WBUR

02:14 min | 1 year ago

"eurasia" Discussed on WBUR

"Back home to save myself chewing time I'm turning raw courgettes into spaghetti although my daughter Elsa didn't like the look of them But here's the important point Richard thinks fire gave us food security Last time chewing meant more time to hunt and forage and as we grew confident that we could always find something to cook and safely eat we took the risk of going out on longer expeditions into the savanna to hunt for even bigger game Until we have homo erectus our ancestors had big brawny arms and shoulders that enabled them to climb well and they would certainly have slept in trees But once you get to homo erectus they slept on the ground And I think that they had some alternative system of being safe on the ground at night And that surely must have been the use of fire In nowadays you'd be crazy to go off to somewhere like the Serengeti and just curl up and lie down on the ground and hope you'd be okay You would definitely have to have a fire Do you think fire had a role to play in the loss of body hair in humans Yeah my feeling about this is that if you can keep warm at night you don't need hair as an insulating lair And this is very significant because humans are relatively active species We have an anatomy that is adapted to running from about 2 million years onwards but they would not have been regular long distance runners if they had had hair When the active during the day the problem tends to be how can you lose heat rather than how can you retain it And we are still running on that for a job right now In fact by pedal running it's such an energy efficient way to get around It's thought humans simply pursued their less efficient quadruped prey Until it collapsed from exhaustion This pursuit eventually led over a rectus out of Africa and into the much colder darker northern latitudes of Eurasia during.

Elsa Richard Africa Eurasia
"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:54 min | 1 year ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Virus Plus Ian bremmer of the Eurasia group looks at the global impact But first we hear from the Doctor Who's been on the front lines in the battle against COVID-19 from the beginning Doctor Anthony Fauci director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases We know that it's here in the United States Which I actually you know not wasn't anything brilliant on my part but we predicted that when you see it spreading throughout countries in Europe and Asia obviously you're going to see it here in the United States The real big question that we don't know now is how is it going to fare in a world and the world being our country in a world in which Delta is the dominant variant That's going to be a very interesting situation to watch All the way back on Monday you said as you suggest you know it's going to come the United States You were right Let me ask you a different question Community spread Is it inevitable at this point Do we already have community spread in this country Because that may affect questions of travel restrictions right We absolutely have community spread in this country We have community spread with the New York Minnesota case Where someone was in Minnesota went to a conference in New York Got infected and people with whom he had contact with also got infected We don't know how many of them but there's no doubt that this community spread What is the timeline on finding out the clinical effects of this Because when we talk to people on Monday they said about a month We should have a better sense of the clinical effect How severe it is How contagious it is Is that still holding because I saw some reports that maybe it's going to take longer No I think you're going to get an inkling of it within a period of three weeks to a month And you're going to get a very good determination of it a little bit longer But you can sort of get a hint of what's going to be coming out in about three weeks or so Talk about treatments because we have a couple of treatments One from Merck one from Pfizer that once somebody as I understand has the disease in the early stages you could take a pill as it were When will we have approvals do you expect of those Therapeutics Well the FDA is given an emergency use authorization to the oral medication from Merck The mound Napier the Pfizer one is being submitted for consideration for an emergency use authorization It's going to be a combination of getting authorized but also making enough product to have an impact And that's the other important issue is what is the scalability of these medications So Doctor Fauci let's turn now to what our possible defenses are here You said getting vaccinated boosters number one defense But obviously testing and sort of having intelligence as it were about where this disease is is children helpful we heard that President Biden was tested I guess three times for COVID because he had what he called a frog in his throat What are we doing on testing And are these rapid tests really that accurate Well the rapid test of fundamentally antigen tests they are not as sensitive as the PCR test But if you do them frequently enough the lack of sensitivity or relative sensitivity is really overcome by the fact that you ultimately will get it Get it being make a diagnosis if you test enough More than just once And that's the reason why when you talk about doing it you want to do it not only it may be a couple of days in a row but a day every other day something like that But they are very very useful Because even though they aren't as distinctly sensitive as the PCR they're ready availability Their ability to quickly get an answer and to do it very often because of the quantity of them that makes up for the relative lack of sensitivity I'm sure no test is a 100% effective There's always some margin for error if I can put it that way in a test If you can compare PCR on the one hand with the antigen and the other what is the difference What's the degree of difference in the two And is there a bias toward false positive or pulse negative When you have a less sensitive test the likelihood of there being a false negative is there much more so than PCR PCR is highly sensitive Sometimes that sensitivity can give you a false positive But most of the time the sensitivity and the specificity are very good for the PCR They're rapidity with which you can do the antigen is a great advantage But because it is not as sensitive you could get what was called a false negative Namely it's there but it's in low enough concentration that the antigen test does not pick it up That would be considered a false negative Doctor Fauci you have said repeatedly the best defense is to get vaccinated And if you've been vaccinated then get boosters But let's talk about a segment of the population that can not get vaccinated right now And that is the under 5 because I'm hearing from a lot of parents I suspect you are as well A real eagerness to have that possibility Where are we Well we've done to test during in the process of testing kids from 5 to two years old and from 6 months up to two years Those tests are ongoing right now We likely will get an answer in the sense of getting enough data to evaluate it by the first quarter of 2022 When the FDA approves that I can't say because I don't want to get ahead of the FDA but when you're dealing with children that young there's always an extra degree of care and sensitivity to the vulnerability of children So we'll have enough.

Ian bremmer Eurasia group COVID United States Anthony Fauci National Institute of Allergy Merck The mound Napier Minnesota Pfizer President Biden Fauci New York Asia Merck Europe FDA
"eurasia" Discussed on Lex Fridman Podcast

Lex Fridman Podcast

03:36 min | 1 year ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Lex Fridman Podcast

"Body in terms of human sensory information. Like you can make an agreement that if you don't lose 5 pounds in the next month, you're going to pay me a $1000 or something like that. I don't know. It's a stupid example, but it's not because you can create all kinds of services on top of that. You can just create all kinds of interesting applications that completely revolutionize how humans transact. I think, of course, we don't want to create a world of Chinese style social credit. In which our behavior becomes so transparent to provide us a financial services, particularly insurers that when I try to go into the par buy, I'm stopped from doing so. Every time you take a drink, your insurance goes up. Or by credit card wouldn't work. In certain restaurants because they serve, you know, ribeye steak. I fear that world 'cause I see it being built in China. And we must at all costs make sure that the western world has something distinctive to offer, it can't just be, oh, it's the same as in China, only the data go to 5 tech companies rather than to Xi Jinping. So I think the way we need to steer this world is in the way that our data are by default vaulted on our devices and we choose when to release the data. Rather than the default setting being that the data are available. That's important, I think, because it was one of the biggest mistakes of the evolution of the Internet that in a way the default was to let our data be plundered. It's hard to undo that, but I think we can at least create a new regime that in future makes privacy default rather than open access to form. In the book doom, the politics of catastrophe, your newest book, you describe wars, pandemics, and the terrible disasters in human history. Which stands out to you as the worst in terms of how much it shook the world and the human spirit. I am glad I was not a round. In the mid 14th century, when the Bubonic plague swept across Eurasia. As far as we can see, that was history's worst pandemic. Maybe there was a comparably bad one in the reign of the emperor Justinian, but there's some reason to think it wasn't as bad. And the more we learn about the 14th century, the more we realized that it really was across Eurasia and the mortality was 30% in some places 50% in some places higher there were whole towns that were just emptied. And when one reads about the Black Death, it's an unimaginable nightmare of death and madness in the death with flagellant orders, wandering from town to town. Seeking to ward off divine retribution by flogging themselves, people turning on the local Jewish communities as if it somehow their fault..

China Eurasia
"eurasia" Discussed on Gugacast

Gugacast

02:11 min | 1 year ago

"eurasia" Discussed on Gugacast

"If the shook our cat. Montenegro nassir socal. Does it will wash spilling automatic over which is mirror vase. In synchronous work at disney. Such these music cease it will linger of fiscal. This isn't gonna fly at an app. Rabbi levin escape room columbia. Vdi your no no brian. Yeah cobb inches jeep allowed to kill. Shut the the main khuzdar competent gaffey Engine used to own education. Devos itala gave us follower quizzical got cast. She was awful africa for education through kid. Fully all associate vice dome wacker course education is. I just thought the flip vo v. Don't know where she is a killer fat cheese. Eurasia socking guffaw. Julian assange lane volta. The offer open. Oklahoma's olympia was h sorts beijing. Don't see thanks to while a sore leg at theology someone voice over chiro yoga maximum. Almost different that we use gave us shot. Bill will link but follow through sparkle prison though. But follow this bizarre you sick breath to keep our allies as historic keystone up. His old yours stocky. The announcement.

Rabbi levin Devos itala dome wacker Montenegro disney columbia brian Eurasia Julian assange africa olympia Oklahoma beijing Bill
"eurasia" Discussed on The Art of Charm

The Art of Charm

01:35 min | 1 year ago

"eurasia" Discussed on The Art of Charm

"Definitely think strike Telling plays a role. I believe that negotiation is about emotion at rationality and i think he would be foolish to believe that rationality supersedes emotion every single day. People walk away from perfectly rational deals. They walk away because they're angry. They quit because they want to get back on the other side. They walk away for emotional reason. So i think it's really really important that when we prepare to negotiate we think about managing emotion and i believe that that occurs it two levels i. I have to think about managing my own emotion. My own emotion right because emotions are contagious. There's something called emotional contagion. So i'm calm. You're more likely to be calm. And if i get angry. You're getting rid if i've raised by voice. Eurasia voice so. I want to recognize the need to control my own emotion to help the other side and control airs. But the second thing i have to do is really think about managing the other side emotional reaction and one of the ways i manage. The reaction is by creating a story that focuses on them. A second thing. I do is leave by suffering to concede because people like to see me concede. They feel better about it. A third thing. I do is give them multiple offers because people love choice and they feel like they're in control when they have choice but a fourth thing i think is really critical. In managing their emotional reactions is to deploy storytelling can tell good stories to provoke that availability bias is. The name of that reaction is going to lead you to believe.

Eurasia
Michael Anton on Buckhead Secession, Realities in Other States Like New York and Maryland

The Dan Bongino Show

01:55 min | 1 year ago

Michael Anton on Buckhead Secession, Realities in Other States Like New York and Maryland

"The people in the North. In parts are saying, Why don't we just get out of the city of Atlanta and become our own incorporated city that we can have our own police force and we can hire people who are going to enforce the law and let them know that we back then? You know, Michael, this makes me think of the it's really used in for religious institutions. More We talk about the term but the term subsidiarity, which is really the best level of administration, the most effective level of administration is going to be local. You know, In other words, you're H o A is going to be more receptive to what you need, because it's probably only what 102 100 homes and Eurasia way vote means a whole lot. It's one of 200 then the president to you, because he really doesn't care. I mean, you know, hundreds of millions of people vote for the president, of course of election cycles. Your vote. You know it matters, but you know, mathematically. It obviously doesn't matter as much. And I think this is one of those ideas that listen. If New York State is so big, it's not going to listen to him Onondaga County or whatever it may be. You know that Maybe these counties could join us, And I think having come from Maryland having lived there for a long time, Western Maryland Michael is always like my gosh. Why can't Can we get out of here? Can we go to West? Virginia? Yeah, Western Western, You know, I I know very little about the area, but I've been through it a couple of times. And once you get to Frederick and beyond the whole character of the state is utterly utterly different than what you see in Baltimore or around the chest speak. It's just it has way more in common with West Virginia or rural Pennsylvania, then And or, you know, or even parts of Virginia that don't have anything anymore, really in common with Northern Virginia, and yet because of the way because there's the dominance of urban and suburban areas in terms of population, you can vote to your heart's content in Western Maryland, and it doesn't matter. You're just going to lose every time the same way somebody in upstate New York will always get out. Voted by the city or somebody in you know, the rural Virginia or Western Virginia is always going to get out. Voted by Northern Virginia, those suburban counties right around Washington, D. C. They just they just

Western Western Michael Eurasia Western Maryland Atlanta Onondaga County Virginia New York Maryland Frederick Northern Virginia Baltimore West Virginia Pennsylvania Western Virginia Washington
E.U. Agrees to Impose Sanctions on Belarus

Monocle 24: The Briefing

01:31 min | 1 year ago

E.U. Agrees to Impose Sanctions on Belarus

"The european union is still attempting to calibrate the punishment appropriate to the state ordered hijacking of civilian airliner flying between two of its capitals in response to bert belarus's bewildering excursion into air piracy. On sunday the eu has banned belarusian from european skies and promised further sanctions roman protest the belarusian journalists removed from the ryanair aircraft. After it was forced to land in minsk has appeared in video apparently under some giresse non joined with more on this alex culture of risk analyst focused on russia ukraine belarus and eurasia at h. s. market alex. First of all a bill. Russian state media is reporting the order to crown. The plane was directly from president lukashenko's. So it's clear that he wants to be associated with this action isn't yet clear to the rest of us what he thinks he's doing a won't think from perspective of lukashenka it's clearly a very successful Operation by special forces In which they into subsets A person who from Soup from november last year was on the belarussian list of known terrorists so This is probably his way of thinking. We managed to get Ah terrorist and get him detained and And now he will face He will face punishment

European Union Belarus President Lukashenko Ryanair Minsk Eurasia Lukashenka Ukraine Russia Alex
How to move forward with China

Between The Lines

09:16 min | 2 years ago

How to move forward with China

"To fourteen point list of grievances via the australian media. Second wine joined beef. Bali timber lobster call among our exports that the chinese communist party has imposed tariffs on. And then that tweet. This is the tweet of the posting of a digitally altered of an australian soldier about to slit the throat of an afghan child. The chinese embassy issuing a bellicose statement the rage in roar of some ustralian politicians and media was misreading and reaction. It said to deflect public attention from the horrible atrocities by sickness soldiers and to blame china for the worsening of bilateral ties. So what's going on. He and asha camera respond. Jeff rabi is a former australian ambassador to the people's republic of china and he's author of china's grand strategy and australia's feature in the new global order. That's just been published and it's available in all good bookstores jeff. Welcome back to the show so some great to be back now. I your thoughts about beijing's response to australia in recent weeks so we have that list of the foreign complaints the wind terrace and of course that tweet while a say i up disappointing to see the slights that have been made After the two quite constructive comments at the triumph prime minister a last week quite clearly. The prime minister was Diplomatically signaling That there was a strong wish to start a process of getting back to some sort of more normal relationship between the two countries the product make though it sounds dramatic when you run those three things together the way you have done that certainly not the same thing. And i'm not sure that they're all necessarily coordinated. I mean the fourteen points clearly seems to be freelancing by the embassy on matters that well known and in the public record in any case at a very odd way of putting something out if you leak it to a channel nine television crew that seems to be pretty casual behavior by the embassy then the tariff spo there has been a processing trained for months on the wind tariffs and i do understand that that was the normal process and the strain companies were busily making written submissions as part of that process. And then the tweet The present time it sounds like it's been contrived by the chinese foreign ministry as individual action. it was a tweet that was particularly widely on social media by a now nationalist artist and twitter and the foreign ministry spokesperson on his private twitter account. Pinder to name and so it's philippine. Middle level action doesn't really look to millions of any of these really coordinated broad cross section of the australian people just looking at the y. People who've responded this week is there is outrage and surely win china. does things like. This doesn't make it harder for people like you because you've been an eminent company on this issue for several years now. Hugh watt a bobcar. Pass gas on this program. Of course the former prime minister paul keating. Doesn't it make it hot. A all of you to make the case that al leaders should try to rebuild trust with such a regime yet. I can understand the public outrage especially the media is going into overdrive steer and just as you have said running all these things together as a coordinated action from the state It does make it harder to get sensible constructive discussion going a story about how we deal with these things. I like to find myself in such august company as you outlined. And you might add gareth evans. Many others that to the group as well but it certainly history doesn't help and it's difficult context in which to conduct foreign policy. What we're seeing is what is like to live in the situation with china relationships In a very poor state now. Other people in camera that i see welcome this their peopling camera who have the view that bad relations with china are inevitable. This is the new normal. We should get used to it and lupus it while the questioning myself. And the august company you've being linking me with. Is this the best interest of australia. And it also basic question. Your what has australia down to bring on china's in this way why you think china is picking on again. Picking on is quite pejorative. They're not doing this to other states. Our other key point. And i would phrase that differently tom i would say how is it that astray amongst like minded friends and allies other liberal democracies in the world in the region why's at the trial has become an outlaw and i think that really needs to be part of the public discussion. Isn't the reason. The australia is so over exposed to chinese pressure in beijing. Nosy so the chinese leaders going to inflict pain on australia whenever they can't australia. And not the other like minded way boy more. In other countries we ought to forty percent of our exports to china. No other country has that kind of exposure. I prefer countries in the region. China is by far the largest trading power. I mean that exposure would be the same for korea south korea which is liberal democracy in the region. it would be near that level. For nearly all the countries in the east asian region china is the dominant economic patna of all of the countries in the region and that is just a fact at its reflects. The extent to which china has grown as the dominant economic power in east asia. Alexander downer. The former. Foreign minister says that now's the time to reduce our exposure to china. But what everyone is saying. There's nothing new novel in that. And obviously when people start to realize that we are going to have for a long time a difficult and challenging relationship with china's manage. That's a fairly obvious. Point to make interesting from In addition to being former minister former director of the board of while clay. And very active Proponent in boosting. Australia china trade relations phrase time as soon as minister and i work very closely with him in that and i think we achieved a lot. So why wouldn't you wanna diversify every sensible business. Every sensible company diversifies the port made over and over again on this aspect is that it's going to be very hard. Because of the absolute scale and growth and prosperity of china. You are a foreign policy realist. All gripe house ruthless and that includes chana hardball at every turn and the stronger. China gets the more likely to throw its wide around now to the extent. These realist analysis is correct. How on earth do we solve. this problem. absolutely correct agree with all those points. Another point that needs to be made. And you don't make it much tom. And your pride yourself as being a realist and that is the relationship is asymmetrical that is effect. We need china. More than china needs us. This is not a comfortable place for us to be but it's a place we are. It's a place where we're stack and will remain and so We need to work out how to manage that relationship and we haven't done a particularly good job of a judging by the state rewritten today. So although you express yourself in a different way you essentially gray with the foreign policy realists professor join me shauna regular guest on this program and he argues that his china's power increases its definition of its national interests will grow and then beijing will seek a survey influence in areas on which its future security and prosperity dependent in response. The us will go to great lengths to stop china's rises. It essentially. your argument is well up a poet. I'm a great Admire of joint mish as well. I differ with him on a couple of points but his analysis and arguments have been hugely influential in helping me shape my thinking about these But i put on sphere of influence is. I think that's already happened. I think china is the dominant paranagua this at length in my book in eurasia from the east china sea to also china is the dominant parent. That's happened largely because sanctions against russia poor economic performance by russia Pushback from from europe against russia has meant that brushes had to cede to china's ascendancy in eurasia and so very part of the world. And i think we now live in a world of michigan talks about a world of two great powers with boundary orders and in the question then becomes is some equilibrium at stable between the two. And i believe there is.

China Australia Chinese Embassy Jeff Rabi Chinese Foreign Ministry Foreign Ministry Hugh Watt Prime Minister Paul Keating Beijing Twitter Pinder Bali Gareth Evans South Korea Jeff Philippine Chana Hardball Alexander Downer TOM
China Economy Grows 4.9% as Rest of World Struggles With Coronavirus

Morning Edition

04:07 min | 2 years ago

China Economy Grows 4.9% as Rest of World Struggles With Coronavirus

"It's economy grew 4.9% in the latest quarter. It may be the on ly major economy to expand this year, having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's Emily Thing has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon visit Finova's assembly lines in southern Georgia on problems, various machine presses and quality control machines clack away that kind of sounds like a nine inch Nails song. That's Jen Ambrose, one of the engineers Finova, which makes rare earth magnets, the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iPhone. Finova, like the rest of China is backto work, Construction, manufacturing and automobiles are all booming. And that's good business for the Nova, which mostly cells to North American car plants. Here's Vice President Chirac. There goes me with short hair. You mean elimination time consumer demand is down. But because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America been stocking up on our components. Back in February, sweetie, it got production going in the middle of China's outbreak. He had to negotiate with dozens of villages to let his workers that have locked down and come back to work. Pressure to keep supplying his multinational clients was huge. You know, it was like a war, our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks, and so, economists estimate China's yearly GDP growth could be north of 2.5% this year, even as the rest of the world's economy will shrink by at least 4%. Differential will give Chinese companies more market share in greater economic influence from what global steel production dropped. So China share of production can only rise I estimate this year, China will be at 60% of global steel production. This's leasing Trump, the president of a state industry group in June and July, Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy is recovered earlier in Faster than that of others, including the U. S economy, Its trade surplus this year will widen even more. Michael Herson, China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long running accusations China benefits more from the global economic order the fact that China is back up and running smoothly and in fact, some evidence against that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for US policymakers in particular. Last year, a trade war in a difficult operating environment led some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out. But this year, the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's latest survey found more than 78% of respondents. Has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that COS. Now are dealing with a global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking So Rosie right now, China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's hallway and economics analyst at Beijing. Research from Gavin Cal Dragon Onyx overall is deal on investment from a story and where will have seen what's left behind is mainly the consumption especially for the working people related consumption, meaning there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. Consumer demand has been weaker. And unlike many countries, including the U. S. China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic That could further throw supply and demand out of sync because the quality will widen again and will weigh down the consumption growth. But for now, China is doing all right. Question is how long it can keep it up. Emily Fang NPR News Joe down China

China U. S. China Vice President Chirac Finova North America Emily Thing NPR American Chamber Of Commerce Georgia Jen Ambrose Emily Fang Director Shanghai Eurasia Group Beijing Gavin Cal
China's Economy Bounces Back As Pandemic Is Brought Under Control

NPR's Business Story of the Day

04:07 min | 2 years ago

China's Economy Bounces Back As Pandemic Is Brought Under Control

"China announced today that its economy grew four point nine percent. In the latest quarter, it may be the only major economy to expand this year having recovered from the pandemic while the rest of the world deals with continued lockdowns. NPR's emily. Chang has been looking into what China's economic recovery means for the rest of the world. On a recent October afternoon, I visit Novas assembly lines in southern showdown province, various machine presses, and quality control machines clack away kind of sounds like a nine inch nails song that's Jen Ambrose one of the engineers from Nova which makes rare earth magnets the sort that go into the sensors for your car or help operate your iphone Senova like the rest of China is back to work construction manufacturing and automobiles are all booming and that's good business for the Nova which mostly sells to North American car plants. Here's vice president share your. Show for your meal your woman from town consumer demand is down because of the uncertainty about whether there might be a second wave, our clients in North America I've been stocking up on our components back in February of yet got production going in the middle of China's. He negotiate with dozens of villages let workers at of lockdown and come back to work. The pressure keeps applying as multinational clients was huge. It was like a war. Our director told us in critical times. If you cannot hold up your end, I'll just find someone else to replace you. Extensive. Testing and contact tracing have restarted China's economy despite smaller ensuing outbreaks and so economists estimate China's year GDP growth could be north of two and a half percent this year even as the rest of the world economy will shrink by at least four percent. That differential will give Chinese companies market share in greater economic. Influence. Global Steel production dropped. So China share production can only rise. Estimate, this year China will be at sixty percent of global steel production. This is leasing trump the president of estate industry group. A in June and July. Only China was buying steel because our automobile and construction sectors quickly recovered and because China's economy has recovered earlier and faster than that of others including the US economy, its trade surplus, this year will widen even more. Michael. Hurston China lead at consultancy Eurasia Group says that will exacerbate long-running accusations. China benefits more from the global economic order. The fact that China is back up and running smoothly, and in fact, some evidence suggests that China's actually grabbing market share in export industries will be a cause of concern for us. Policymaker isn't particular last year a trade war in a difficult operating environment. Let some American businesses in China to consider moving some of their supply chains out but this year the American Chamber of Commerce in. Shanghai's Lee. Survey found more than seventy eight percent of respondents has no plans to move operations. What you're seeing now is basically China's stability premium kicking back in in the sense that companies now are dealing with global pandemic and many of the places that they would move production to aren't looking. So rosy right now that China's economic recovery does have its weaknesses. Here's Hallway Economics analyst at Beijing Research from Gavitt Kalganov. Six overall is still investment dramatic story and we'll we'll have seen was lagging behind is mainly. Especially for the working people related consumption meaning, there's been growth because China is building bigger factories and warehouses and making more cars. The consumer demand has been weaker and unlike many countries including the US China has not given cash payments to its lowest income wage earners, many of whom have not been able to find work after the pandemic, and that could further throw supply and demand out of synch because the equality will widen again and we'll way down the consumption growth but for now, China is doing. All right. The question is how long can keep it up. Only thing NPR news jobs young China

China NPR United States North America Chang Vice President American Chamber Of Commerce Jen Ambrose Shanghai Eurasia Group Director President Trump Hallway Economics Hurston Michael Gavitt Kalganov
Armenia, Azerbaijan agree on cease-fire

The California Report Magazine

05:02 min | 2 years ago

Armenia, Azerbaijan agree on cease-fire

"Over 10 hours of talks and then a breakthrough. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Azerbaijan and Armenia had agreed to a ceasefire in the ongoing conflict over the disputed region of Nagorno Carol Bock. After lengthy negotiations between Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. The parties have agreed on the following steps first a ceasefire is announced to be declared from midday on October 10th 2020 for humanitarian purposes. The exchange of prisoners of war on other contained persons on the bodies of the dead, mediated and in accordance with the criteria of the International Committee of the Red Cross. Talks between the foreign ministers of the two countries in Moscow. REMEDIATED by Mr Lavrov more than 300 people have died and thousands have been displaced since the latest violence broke out nearly two weeks ago. You gonna carry back lies with another by John, but it's inhabited mainly by ethnic Armenians. Ostrovsky is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the foreign policy think tank, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D. C. I think this is a cease fire is important. It is not necessarily a game changer. But we've seen some of the worst fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the last almost 30 years over the last two weeks on DH, the fighting has been really kind of brutal on both sides with large civilian casualties, any sort of small ceasefire, humanitarian ceasefire. Er that will pause. The conflict allowed people to pick up the dead and I think it's important, but there still is a long way to go to resolve this conflict. And I would say that it no. It took almost half a day to get the sides to agree to this and the sentiment in both Armenian Azerbaijan has really hardened, so this is very much probably a temporary cease as opposed to a really long term solution. You describe the the fighting in the past two weeks as brutal? How does it differ from from fighting that we've seen before between the two sides? We've seen, you know the use of drones, the use of really sort of much more modern equipment and the targeting of civilian populations on both sides. Eso we've seen, you know, I think at least 300. The casualties have been reported on the Armenian side. The Azerbaijani side hasn't been as clear on the numbers, but I expect it's equally as high and in just two weeks of fighting. That's a fairly high high number. But I think that the brutality against the civilian populations but has been deeply worrying. Mr Lavrov also said that Azerbaijan and Armenia had agreed to start talks on the settlement of the conflict. Will they be able to agree to a more permanent solution? I would hope At some point they will be able to agree, but they've been in talks to do that. Since 1994 the populations have sort of viewed this latest round of fighting a sort of existential fight for their nation's on DSO. I think that will make it quite difficult to get a Ah long term solution any time soon. Until you sort of check. Try to change those mindsets, which I think is gonna be quite difficult. Particularly if either one of these leaders is perceived as being a little bit weak on this Nagorno car back issue. I think this is an enormous potential implications for sort of domestic stability in both countries, and what role does Russia play In all of this? What pressures was Russia able to bring to bear on Azerbaijan and Armenia? Russia is normally able to summon its neighbors on get them to stop fighting. It wants to do that, but I think Russia had much more difficulty in this. I think Russian Azerbaijani relations have deteriorated a little bit and turkeys insertion on behalf of Azerbaijan certainly made this more complicated. Is a fighting certainly, and brutality and sort of the greater international awareness on DH. The pressure, not just from Russia but from the West is well that has increased over the last several days. I think that certainly did increase the pressure on both sides. Paul Stransky. Let's hear more from our guests to get their thoughts on these developments. Henry Chiu, professor Stransky doesn't sound optimistic about the prospects for long term peace. Do you share his skepticism? Well, I think if you look at the comments from the leaders of both Azerbaijan and Armenia there fairly adamant about the territory being belonging to their respective countries, and it doesn't look like there. Other side is really willing to give an inch on that. And unfortunately for you gonna carry a box, you know what happens with a lot of these small territories is that they become palms for larger conflicts or larger face offs. And so the professor talked about Russia and Turkey well these air to powers that are also having confrontations in Syria and also In Libya. So unfortunately, this area, which is a resource rich area, it's a strategic corridor is also going to be playing out in an arena that's larger than just itself. Actually, What do you

Azerbaijan Russia Armenia Sergei Lavrov Mr Lavrov Turkey Carnegie Endowment For Interna Moscow Paul Stransky International Committee Of Carol Bock Nagorno Red Cross John Ostrovsky Eurasia Washington Professor
The earliest human footprints in Arabia

Science Magazine Podcast

07:54 min | 2 years ago

The earliest human footprints in Arabia

"Now, we have contributing correspondent and gibbons. She wrote this week about the likely earliest human footprints on the Arabian Peninsula high an hi Sarah how old or how early are these footprints but that's a good question. They threw a whole package of dating methods at them and came up with in the Ballpark of twenty, one, thousand, two, hundred, and ten, thousand years old. Now the dates are not absolute. There's some questions about them, but that's a pretty good ballpark. How does this age compare to previous hints or clues that humans modern humans early modern humans were on the Arabian Peninsula. Here's the. We know that early hominids members of human family have been migrating out of Africa for two million years because we find fossils of our ancestors in the public of Georgia we find them in. Asia. We find them in Eurasia place, but we don't know how they got out and the most logical route is they had to walk through Rabia because they couldn't fly. They couldn't paddleboats a at that point the one landmass in the way between Africa where humans arose originally, our ancestors arose and Eurasia is through Arabia. So we know they had to go through there, but there's a huge gap there are. No tools older than three hundred to five, hundred, thousand years, and what is there is not definitive. The only fossil have a member of the human family from Arabia is a finger bone that is about eighty eight, thousand years old. So the mystery is, where's the evidence of members of the human family marching through Arabia, and then the second part of that is modern humans specifically, our ancestors Homo sapiens arose probably in Africa, because we see fossils in the ballpark of one, hundred, eight, thousand, three, hundred, thousand years of Proto early Homo, sapiens arising and Africa, and then we find more of these sort. Of Early Homo Sapiens in Greece dating possibly back to as early as two hundred and ten thousand. So we know that they got out right now we're just trying to find evidence. Is there something that going on in the Arabian Peninsula that either people didn't want to hang out there for very long or that erased a lot of evidence. Reagan. Peninsula, has covered with desert's it's very dry today the food desert where they found these fossils is parched arid but there were periods in the past where the planet was cooler and wetter, and during those times hundred, twenty, five, thousand years ago it was. One of them, it was green radio was covered with tens of thousands of lakes. They were grasslands between them. If you think about these early human ancestors, it's not a separate continent or a separate place for them to go to its Afro Arabia, right? Yeah. So it's an extension of Africa if the client is good and they're following large game, how were they able to find these footprints? This is a very large area and it's a few remnants of human passing through. Yes. So this team will have by Michael, Leah and it's an international team of Saudi Arabians in a number of people on. Has Been doing a search of scouring the deserts of. Arabia. For the last decade, they start with satellite imagery which helps them see parched ancient lake beds which have sort of characteristic white halio souls often these ancient sediments that stand out in the satellites and then go down to ground truth what they see on the satellites, an airplane shots they go in on foot in jeeps, and in this case they saw this ancient. Lake better rolling out as white sediment. It had just been recently exposed by Rosen and they found the footprints of the animals which was amazing and as I looked closer to one hundreds of footprints, it was four hundred mostly animals but they did identify a small number. It was seven that seemed to be human footprints. So they knew right away they were very excited about that that this was something that was important how Can you tell that they're human footprints and not some other upright walking relative? There's not a whole science of studying human footprints ever since the first ones are found in la totally in Tanzania and Kenya there've been a number of footprints that have been studied people use three D morphometric dimensional analysis with computational imaging or can really look at the depth and they could model how much weight would have been needed to make. That footprint, the length of the foot, the stride between the steps, and then they've done studies living people in their footprints in Africa to sort of test out those ideas and Lo, and behold when they do that to these footprints, they seem to come up with somebody kind of humor that was taller and maybe a little lighter weight more like a modern human of Homo sapiens and say an Andrew Tall so based on that. They say, Oh, these probably were made by Homo sapiens although we cannot rule out that nanotubes might have been there to is there anything else can tell about these people by looking at these marks I think if they get more, they can start to tell about their social structure footprint studies in Africa. I've got quite complicated where you could see the direction that they're going in the payson different members of social groups you can. To see what they are the packs of humans look like you know, what size are they how many are in these groups? What are they doing a lot of the way in this case, they're not spending a lotta time. They're just sort of walking through. This is a bantering group. What is really really cool. Though is that footprint site these are a snapshot of a single moment in time a single day most of the. Time when you have an archaeological site in a layer soil that you get the fossils of the tools and the dates, all that took place. This fan is usually hundreds of thousands, tens of thousands of years. So if you find an animal bone near a prominent human early Human Boehner tool, you don't necessarily know fear there at the same time as parch with footprints like these these were lay down in the same day maybe. A couple of days and they dried out and then got caught up in preserved. So we know they were all there at the same time. So you get this really cool day in the life look at the and of the animals they were with, which is really cool in this case and lots of animals. Yes. Almost four hundred footprints of animals including very interesting. A wild asses which I don't think we're carrying burdens but. That's kind of neat and they were elephants and the thing that's interesting about the elephants as their popular disappeared for the Middle East, just in Africa. Thanks for three hundred years ago and here they are in hundred twenty, thousand in Arabia and the camps they also Campbell's it's kind of interesting that such large animals with Aaron. It begs the question were these humans following them where they attracted them. Going back to the, we talked about it being about one, hundred, twenty, thousand years old. There's some question about the date but if that were cracked, is there anything particularly Gordon about this time human history about what we know about migrations that we could link these prince two? Yes. So what is really interesting is that genetic evidence says that everybody outside of Africa. Came from migrations that happened in the last fifty to eighty thousand years. So this state predates that we happen to know that early Homo Sapiens were in the Middle East pretty quickly after this or at the same time they're fossils in caves. At school and cough so that our early sort of product Homo sapiens. So we know humans are at sorta suggests that because we don't have DNA that dates back this early these were failed migrations. These were members of the human family that went out they weren't shelled migrations for them they lived, but they did not contribute to the gene pool of letting people today that's one hypothesis but it also shows that there's more complex story of groups of humans migrating out of Africa constantly whenever the weather excitement is right that it's three to nothing that they can get water follow animals to meet and trek. Africa. They can cross the desert. It looks like humans were doing that whenever they could and so how do they contribute tour ancestry today a really interesting question and how many different kinds of hominids out there. Thank you so much an thank you. Sir,

Africa Arabian Peninsula Arabia Middle East Afro Arabia Gibbons Asia Cough Rabia Sarah Eurasia Saudi Arabians Reagan Georgia Tanzania
Misplaced Science

True Mysteries of the Pacific Northwest

05:35 min | 2 years ago

Misplaced Science

"Night Welcome to kids Miss Mystery Cyber your host kit chrome today. I'm going to talk about how some Mistakes made it into text books and I'm going to start with the woolly mammoth arose about five point one million years ago in Africa according to the curator of the American Museum of Natural History in New York from Africa the mammoth migrated through Eurasia North America their evolution continued over millions of years eventually producing what we know now as the wooly mammoth beginning roughly two, hundred, fifty, thousand years ago. mammoths were extinct about ten thousand years ago. OOPS more like three, thousand, five, hundred years ago scientists now believe an isolated population of mammoth persisted on Wrangel Island off the northeastern coast of Siberia. And deep in Canada's Northwest Territories, World Heritage site in hunt, valley until about three thousand, seven, hundred years ago. Unfortunately, the ten thousand year mark of extinction is in most textbooks. But let's take a closer look at that date the prominent theory that made it into most textbooks. Encyclopedia's remember those was ten thousand years ago because it was believed for decades at the mammoth migrated from the African continent through. Eurasian North America, driven by the last ice age, they were following the food supply. If that's the case, then it makes sense that some moms ended up into Hani because it was never touched by. The last ice age and yes bone. So the mammoth have been found in that region but this isn't the first theory published in Texbook. As fact that there's some founded expend believed and yes, made it into text books that the continent of Antarctica has been covered by ice for millions of years again hoops the Perry reese map drawn in fifteen thirteen shows the northern coast of Arctic as ice-free. The most puzzling aspect of the map isn't how it managed to be. So accurate three hundred years before Antarctica was discovered but that the map shows the real Coche line under the ice geological evidence. has confirmed that the latest date and Artika could have been charted in an ice free ages. Four thousand BC officials sciences been saying all along the ice cap, which covers yet arctic is millions of years old the Perry reese at Arctic map shows, but the northern part of that continent has been mapped before the ice covered it. That could make us think it has been mapped a million years ago but that's impossible since mankind did not exist at that time further and more accurate studies have proven that the last period of ice free condition and already got ended about six thousand years ago. The question is who map Queen Maud land at Arctic six thousand years ago which unknown civilization, how the technology or the need to do that I wanNA touch on just one more scientific nestled in the ancient city of Komo. Polka Bolivia are stone blocks that were used to make up a series of Pyramids Wayne from two hundred to four hundred tons each block nothing unusual there the city dates back to five, thirty, six AD. Yet. The blocks are riddled with carved indentations and in the surrounding grasses were found. Staple shaped clamps that fit in place were used to hold the blocks together. How could the indigenous people? No knowledge of urgency have created these clamps and where did the metal they use come from? This isn't the only case of metal clamps being used to hold giants don't together in Cambodia's anchor watt giant sandstone blocks way nearly two tonnes were brought to the site of the temple from nearby mountain via series of waterways. Close inspection of stones that are scattered around the site have revealed carved indentation receptacles for metal clamps perhaps. How about an eerie coincidence just outside the magnificent ruins of anger what stands an ancient pyramid temple known as backseat clump core now from Cambodia. Travel over eight thousand miles to Guatemala in the ancient Mayan city of Tacoma all among the long forgotten structures at the call is the Temple of the Great Jaguar although the Cambodian pyramid is much smaller than the pyramid in Guatemala the similarities between the specific design features are uncanny both. These pyramids both these ancient structures have an unusually steep slope angle that didn't exist in many other pyramids or temples however, and perhaps most importantly they both feature a stepped formation. There's a massive stairwell going up the middle of both temples and there's a domed area located on the top of both once there you can see there's a small door that goes inside the pyramid on both and there's another internal structure that looks the same. Basically what you have here is an ancient civilization. Cambodia. Another one in Mesoamerica despite the fact that they are separated by more than nine thousand miles, they feature incredible similarities that no one not even science has been able to explain

Cambodia Arctic Antarctica Africa Wrangel Island Guatemala Canada American Museum Of Natural His Polka Bolivia North America New York Perry Reese Hani World Heritage Texbook Pyramids Wayne Mesoamerica Artika BC
When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

The Takeaway

13:57 min | 2 years ago

When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.

"Since its debut and twenty seventeen, the Chinese APP tick tock has become one of the fastest growing social media tools with more than eight hundred, million active users. The APP lets users make short videos that are often shared across the Internet, but Tiktok isn't all fun games for months. Now, a lot of the attention about the APP has been focused on the national security concerns and the collection of user data, and as a result, the platform has been banned in India, by multiple branches of the US military and by Wells Fargo employees most recently however, president trump took aim at tiktok himself by threatening to ban the APP. We're looking at Tiktok we may be banning TIKTOK. We may be doing some other things, a couple of options, but a lot of things are happening. So we'll see what happens but we are looking at a lot of alternatives with respected dictum. Those remarks were before reports surfaced that Microsoft was pursuing a deal to buy TIKTOK in a press conference at the White House yesterday president trump claimed Microsoft or any other company would have to wait until September fifteen to acquire the APP and would be expected to give a percentage of the profit from the sale to the US Treasury. Joining me now is Graham Webster editor of digit China Project at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and a fellow at New America Graham thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me. And Cowan Rosenblatt is a youth and Internet cultural reporter for NBC, News. Dot Com callen thanks for being with us as well. Glad to, be here. Cowen who is the average tiktok user? The average tick tock user really is is a dynamic question because there is a huge range of different people who are using the APP but I'd say the most common person you're gonNA find is someone who is either at the tail end of high school or College who is definitely a solidly in generation the Gen Z. and he was using me APP mostly for fun to do dance challenges trends an engaged with communities that serve to their world. Graham. All of that sounds pretty basic I mean it doesn't sound like there's anything to be concerned about so far what type of data does tiktok collect from its users Graham? We'll TIKTOK is like a lot of social media companies these days It's using an AI driven or machine learning driven algorithm to figure out which content to to individual users. So to get this accomplished, they pay attention to obviously whatever you post that also you know what posts on your feed you look at how long you look at them where your device location is They also tried to track individual users like many apps do by looking at things like screen size and operating system and of course, they have a fair amount of information about your social graph, your your connections to friends and other people that you follow. And so what were some of the concerns around the data collection that way Graham given that it feels like there's a lot of, as you mentioned, other social media platforms and advertisers and the like that are tracking everything that we do already. Why? Why is Tiktok being highlighted here and banned in some of the institutions that we mentioned at the top Well, the basic reason is that tick tock is owned by a Chinese company named Bite Dance and they're a fairly new social media company. They had a breakout a few years ago in China with an APP called junior Tokyo that that is a you know an algorithm, IQ news feed and this is China's first big breakout internationally in terms of social media APPS and really getting take-up in in many different countries around the world not just the United States. So there's A concern that data collected by Tick Tock could end up in the hands of the Chinese company or the Chinese government and wild tick. Tock says that it stores all US user data in the US or in Singapore we don't really have a good way as a society right now to check that type of thing and to make sure that companies commit you when they commit to you know storing data and the Safeway making sure that they're actually doing that. Doesn't sound like we have a lot of that in the United States either though Graham. I mean, we have constant security breaches left and right Right. Well, the United States doesn't have a central data governance or data security or privacy Regulatory System the most prominent example of one globally as Europe, which has the general data protection regulation called the GDP are, and that governs things like when an apper services going to collect your personal information they have to gain certain types of consent and follow certain types of rules and there's also kind of limits the. Idea that if you collect data for a certain reason that you got consent for you shouldn't be able to use it for other reasons and that type of governance is just not that prominent in the US partially because the big US social media companies are not especially keen to have their practices heavily regulated they. They find GDP are in Europe to be burdensome and You know get in the way of making money. Kalland back in June president trump organized a rally in Tulsa Oklahoma and rumor has it that tiktok users promoted buying tickets for the event and didn't show up so that the event would be empty. What do we know about how that rubbed of the administration? So, what we know is it seemed to sort of frustrate the administration. Now, there's no evidence that the Tiktok users and K pop stands who are fans of Korean pop music that they had any impact on turnout. We are going through a global pandemic. There are a lot of factors going on right now. So it is really hard to know sort of what that impact was. But what we do know is it likely inflated expectations for turnout. The administration was planning to have a second rally after the main rally in Tulsa. which they then had to cancel, and so we think that it really messed with them. It was a it was a real genuine troll on the part of these tic TAC users against the president, and it really seemed to rub him the wrong way and there are lots of Tiktok users young first time voters who are telling me that when trump said, he wanted to ban this APP that was a retaliation for what they did the stunt they pulled the prank they pulled in Tulsa most what they think is happening. That's what they think is happening why there is no evidence that that's the president's line of thinking but that's what these eighteen to twenty two year olds are telling me that that's their beliefs. Cowan, we talked about The you know whether or not talk users actually had any effect on the trump rally in Tulsa back in June but more more directly here wondering if you're seeing any more political movement on the APP, whether it's a pro trump or pro biden or anti-trump anti, Biden has it started to move away from dance and song and move towards more political leaning so far. It can do both things at once actually. So there are still the dance trends. There are massive accounts that are just enjoying music on the APP but we see a lot of politics on Tiktok now maybe more than ever some young people are telling me they feel that because their home in quarantine and because politics ramping up nationally as we get closer to this election that they're seeing more and more politics in their feet, and what we're seeing is a not so much pro by content, but a lot of anti-trump content and I WANNA be clear. There is Republican Todd Democrat tiktok liberal Tick Tock conservative Tiktok. But what it appears to be is a lot of generation. Z.. Has a anti-trump sentiment and that does not mean they heavy pro biden sentiment. But things that we see our young people say, Hey, on this day, everyone go to president, trump's campaign store and put these products in your cart. But don't check out because allegedly that messes with their inventory or everyone on this day go to president trump's twitter account and report account, and let's see we can get a taken down. So we're still seeing these sort of organized movements sort of Troll, the president and a lot of discussion of politics but whether or not that is in in favor of vice, President Biden or in favor of president trump is sort of yet to be seen. Graham LE. Let's talk a little bit. But I mean, it sounds like tiktok users are for the most part having fun on the site sort of trying to do the things that Collina's talking about here but. On a more serious note, the trump administration has been trying to ban the APP. They're citing national security concerns, concerns over censorship by the Chinese government. Valid are any of those concerns really given what you know about China US politics Well I think it's you have to separate them out So the the concern about censorship I think is legitimate there was there was an example a little while ago where it looked like some of the censorship that they would do in China restricting conversations about things the Communist Party doesn't like discussed had bled over into the international product Now, Tiktok said that they were addressing that wasn't intended again, we don't really. Have a good way in the United States to check up on that and to kind of make sure that speech isn't being censored one way or the other the national security issue I think requires a lot more imagination Now, you know as was mentioned, the the military has has told service members to not use the APP and I think that makes a good amount a sense you know if if you're concerned about an APP Having links to a potential adversary There's all sorts of possibilities of ways that it could be exploited even just using location data of of service members or people who work in sensitive facilities. But if you don't work in sensitive facilities, if you're just sort of going around and and and doing the fun things and engaging in some of the political discourse that Cowan was mentioning you know there's not. A real big national security issue there a I will say that some people think that collecting the full aggregate totality of US Tiktok users could be used later in a analysis to try to do something, but it's really imaginative at this point whereas I think the censorship concerns a real and could be checked on and data privacy concerns are real but should be able to be checked on as well. What about the fact that we we just heard from Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group in the previous segment talking about how the United States is viewed internationally in terms of our response to the corona virus. But I did ask in also about his thoughts on what this Tiktok dust up between president trump and China what seemed to Be Rooted in and he said, you know this is also part of trump's sort of relationship with how he views China and Chinese technology he's gone after while way he's gone you know talked a lot about five G. technologies. So do you see that I mean? Do you see that as a pattern in how the president views technologies specifically that's coming out of China. Yeah I think the you know the trump administration's been. Pursuing a campaign of you know escalating what could be a new type of Cold War approach to China and a lot of it is wrapped up in technology and and I think the focus on Tiktok really makes the most sense. If you consider it a distraction from two things I is a distraction from actual problems with China you know the the trump administration got this phase one trade deal which didn't really get to the deep issues of subsidy and market access and intellectual property protection. And, on the other hand, it's distracting from the fact that a lot of these security concerns should apply across many apps. Why just tick Tock you know you're talking about including American made apps like facebook and twitter. Yeah I mean the concerns are different when the parent company is in China but there are really unaccountable data collection methods going on across ad networks and data brokers are building profiles of Americans and people in other countries that can be purchased just with money and you know it's not only add companies that by this data governments can get it to. Callan, as we sort of touched on this earlier. But of course, we I, say this all the time we're heading into one of the most consequential presedential elections in my lifetime at least social media is constantly changing is tiktok going to be a thing and twenty twenty and November, or is it going to be eclipse with something else or it'll change the? Will it change the election? Calvin what are your thoughts on that? I don't see Tiktok going away anytime soon, as long as the president allows it to operate in the United States I think we're gonNA see more is eight organizing on the APP among young people and I think we're GONNA see. TIKTOK. As long as Microsoft buys it or another company comes in to allow it to operate in the US I think it's going to stick around for a long time. I mean the president did Callan has also asked that Microsoft give money to the Treasury. If it makes this sale, we is anybody else interested in buying tiktok or is it just Microsoft right now? I don't think anyone else has come out as far as I'm aware and said that they are interested in purchasing Tik. Tok I think Microsoft even just recently confirmed that they were interested in this conversation, but it appears a deal needs to be made by September fifteenth. So if someone's going to buy it, it has to happen soon. Well you heard it here I guess I callan Rosenblatt is a youth internet culture reporter for NBC News Dot Com and Graham Webster is the editor of the digit China Project at the Stanford? University Cyber Policy Center and he's also a fellow

President Trump Tiktok United States Donald Trump Graham China President Biden Microsoft Tulsa Graham Webster Callan Rosenblatt NBC Us Treasury Chinese Government Stanford University Cowan
Black Women Deserve More Credit in Civil Rights Movements

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah: Ears Edition

03:05 min | 2 years ago

Black Women Deserve More Credit in Civil Rights Movements

"Black women have been the pioneers of so many movements that have changed the world, the Eurasia of black women from the story of these movements is something. We've seen many times throughout American history starting all the way back with the women's suffrage movement. African American women in particular played a significant in sometimes overlooked role at a suffrage movement. There were African American women fighting for suffrage from the beginning you. Know sojourner truth and the time of the civil war I to be Wells Barnett and Mary Church. Terrell, they built a movement that would grow to half a million but they would never find exceptions among mainstream. Selfridge's at that time. Suffrage leaders were actively wooing southern white members to appease the southerners. White suffragettes found it expedient to abandon their black sisters they minimize the presence of black woman in that struggle. Stan seize control of suffrage history, and this multi volume book still dominates the histories and essentially wrote black women out of that. That's right. Black suffragettes were literally written out of the history books by white women in the movements and just look at their faces. It's like they had already seen the future and they were like I'M NOT GONNA get credit for any of this Emma because the truth is certain white feminist heroes worst super-problematic. People, remember them like they were early versions of wonder woman when in reality they were more like the mom from get out. Now, you may not be surprised that these nineteen twenties, Karen's where he gets to accept black women's work but give them credits. But what may surprise you is that black men in the civil rights movement also happy to do a similar thing most women who worked in the movement who were the exit backbone of the civil rights movement were not really known media attention would always be drawn to the men of the movement as they are doing work that Martin, Luther, King's and others but would not necessarily go to women like Ella Baker who was a longtime activist. Who helped to nurture and birth the student movement Diane Nash With the Lead Strategist behind the citizens in Nashville and the freedom writers he played a critical role in organizing the Selma marches. Dorothy height was the Godmother of the civil rights movement. But because she was a woman, she was often off to the side behind the podium behind the scenes she was guiding force at the table when the big six planned the historic march on Washington in nineteen sixty three, the lone woman at a table full of med, yet despite all her efforts height could not convince them that a woman should be allowed to speak at the podium the day of the march come on man this is so messed up. Black Women with the lifeblood of the civil rights movement, and still they got caught blocked by the dudes I. Mean, the Reverend's got half a dozen microphones right there you come break. One of those offer, my girl Dorothy she was a critical part of the group if the vendors were fighting Santa's but they made eye on Manchester from the stands and this just shows you that black women don't just have to deal with racism from the world but oftentimes, they have to deal with the sexism within their own communities and the world at large.

Dorothy Height Selfridge Diane Nash Terrell Wells Barnett Stan Ella Baker Emma Lead Strategist Mary Church Karen Manchester Nashville Washington Dorothy Santa Martin
Will TikTok Be Banned In The USA? It May Depend On Who Owns It

Morning Edition

03:49 min | 2 years ago

Will TikTok Be Banned In The USA? It May Depend On Who Owns It

"It's the shiny new thing in social media, and it's super popular with Generation Z. But the clock may be running out on Tic tac. See what I did there because the Trump administration claims it could be used for espionage. NPR's Jackie Northam explains. When you scroll through the TIC tac cap, There's a constant stream of lively music videos featuring teenagers and twentysomethings and lots of cute little dogs and sunglasses performing for the camera. But they're going to be some pretty unhappy young people here in the U. S. If the Trump administration gets its way. In an interview, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned the U. S may ban the Chinese own TIC TAC because it views it as a national security risk, whether it's tic tac or any of the other Chinese communications platforms, APS Infrastructure that this administration taken seriously the requirement to protect the American people from having their information end up in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party. Tic Tac has been just really an uplifting thing for families. This is a company and an app that is meant for creativity and to enjoy that's Michael Beckerman, a vice president and head of public policy at TIC Tac US. He denies the Trump administration's charges and says there's no intelligence to be gleaned from the AP. Vic talk, like other social media platforms collects data on its users. But Beckerman says, Tick tock never has, nor will share that data with Beijing. We have very strong access controls to data our servers as I mentioned her in Virginia and the decisions on content and everything else or air made at the U. S level by our U. S leadership. The considerable Beijing Stealing data has been building for about five years. Ever since a cybersecurity attack on the office of Personnel Management when sensitive information of more than 20 million U. S citizens was stolen, Paltry Olo, who focuses on the intersection of politics and technology at the Eurasia Group. Scissor have been a number of similar incidents since Trio says the concern grew when China introduced a new national security law a couple years ago. And that law basically just says that companies individuals have to cooperate with the Chinese government when it comes to intelligence matters. It's very vague, though it doesn't say a social media company has to turn over all stated to the Chinese. Government, the Trump administration's effort to ban any Chinese equipment that could be used to steal sensitive data, trade secrets or intellectual property is picking up speed. That even includes thousands of surveillance cameras set up in government buildings and military facilities. Most of them are made by Chinese companies or have Chinese components. All those cameras have to be removed by August 13th. Hitting the deadline is absolutely going to be tricky. I mean, it's just it's like it's less than a month away. Catherine Gronberg is with Force Coat Technologies, a California based cyber security company. She says. It'll be difficult to replace the cameras. You know, the fact is, is that these markets are dominated in some cases by Chinese products, and in fact, we don't have alternatives that are either made by us or in the U. S. Or U. S Ally, Eurasia Group's trio, Lo says the movement against TIC TAC and other Chinese platforms and tech companies. Comes at a particularly turbulent time in U. S China relations exacerbated by the trade dispute and the Corona virus pandemic. It's a much, much broader problem that between the US and China that the tech companies are being dragged into You know, there's there's no trust basically, and the administration warns more Chinese made equipment or APS are in its crosshairs. Jackie Northam. NPR news

Tic Tac Trump Administration Jackie Northam China Chinese Government Michael Beckerman Chinese Communist Party Beijing Eurasia Group NPR Catherine Gronberg Trio Mike Pompeo Aps Infrastructure United States Virginia VIC U. S
TikTok Tackles India App Ban, Vowing It's No Tool for Beijing

Marketplace

03:19 min | 2 years ago

TikTok Tackles India App Ban, Vowing It's No Tool for Beijing

"Tensions have spiked between the world's two most populous nations. That would be China and India. The two countries share a border that extends for more than 2000 miles, and it was along that border that violence broke out. Last month, 20 Indian troops were killed. Now India has banned dozens of Chinese APS, including the social video APP. TIC tac. India has been tic Tac's biggest foreign market. NPR's Lauren Frayer has been talking with some of the Indians obsessed with it. When the Corona virus hit India, Sumit Jane was forced to shut the clothing shop he runs in his hometown in western India. Under lock down. He was bored and worried. Looking long thought intelligent. That damned ignominy. Tic tac is how I stayed. Sane says I posted videos every day, Good Tic Tac clip Jane lip synchs lyrics about the Corona virus. To the tune of a popular Bollywood song. Jane is a skinny 28 year old with a curly mop of hair, gold earrings and nearly four million followers on Tic Tac social video APP has made him famous. He starred in a music video and even got offers to be on TV that Ah, licking a musical gave a small town in hands like me used to have to move to the big city to get noticed, he says. Tic Tac lets us do that from home. Up to 1/3 of TIC Tac users are believed to be in India. They're the biggest group outside China. Some Indians have even monetized it selling English lessons on tick talk, for example. But this week, the Indian government banned Tic Tac, along with 58 other Chinese made APS amid tensions with Beijing. We the people of India, standing behind the government have the ability to hit China where it hurts. India's nationalist TV anchors applauded the move. Many Indians are outraged over China's killing last month of Indian troops. Some are calling for a boycott of all Chinese goods. The government is trying to tap into the national sentiment in sweeping India right now. Akil Berry with the think tank Eurasia Group, says the Indian government is concerned about data privacy on Chinese APS. It also wants Indians to develop Indian APS rather than using Chinese ones. But India's own tech start ups get a lot of Chinese investment, Barry says. When you take a look at India's unicorns startups that a valued at over $1 billion about 18 off the 30 of them have Chinese investment. So if Beijing retaliates and pulls Chinese investment That could hurt India even more, he says. Tic Tac says it's following Indian privacy laws and is asking the Indian government to reconsider. Meanwhile, in a small town in northern India, housewife Anita Meena has been posting videos to tic tac of herself doing folk dances and have gone viral. She gets recognized when she goes to her local market, she says. Tick. Tuck is banned. Mina says she'll focus on YouTube Instead, it's unclear how many of India's roughly 200 million TIC tac users will do the same if Lauren Frayer NPR

Tic Tac India Indian Government China Sumit Jane Lauren Frayer Beijing NPR Anita Meena Tuck Youtube Akil Berry Tank Eurasia Group Mina Barry
US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China

Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia

01:02 min | 2 years ago

US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China

"States, saying it has revoked parts of Hongkong's special status. Under U. S law. Ed. It's all yours. And this looks like the beginning comes in the form of a written statement from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, saying the new security measures on Hong Kong that there's a risk That sensitive U. S. Tech could goto Beijing, he says an end a Hong Kong preferential treatment over China, including export license exemptions and some visas, he says further actions too deferential treatment are also being evaluated. So what's up with the timing? Well, Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer says things have not been going well for President Trump's reelection effort, so he has kind of grasp onto this one's going toe look, a scan that President Trump For whacking China over unilaterally changing the terms of Hong Kong special status of Hong Kong's autonomy. The Americans are changing the status here the Chinese are and the Americans are only recognized against. Security legislation in Beijing. Expect to be voted on later today

Hong Kong President Trump Wilbur Ross Beijing China Hongkong Ian Bremmer Eurasia Group Founder U. S. Tech
How Many Continents Are There?

BrainStuff

04:20 min | 2 years ago

How Many Continents Are There?

"Two plus two equals four the world's Brown. There are seven continents on earth. But that last one isn't quite so cut and dried here. In the United States students learned that there are seven continents North, America. South America Europe Asia. Africa, Australia and Arctic. But that's hardly the last word on the matter and much of Europe students learn that there are six continents Africa. America Antarctica Asia Australia slash. And Europe. There's a five continent model which lists Africa. Europe Asia America and Oceana Slash Australia, and that's by the way why there are five rings on the Olympic, flag. And, some experts think that four is the way to go using as their criteria landmasses. Separated by water rather than manmade So Afro Eurasia America and Arca and. As recently as the eighteen hundreds, some people said there were just too. It's the old including Europe Africa and Asia and the new encompassing north and South America. So what really makes a continent continent? We spoke by email with Dan Montello. A geography professor at the University of California Santa Barbara he said nothing really determines a continent except historical convention, a bit of an overstatement, but mostly valid a certain factors make a landmass more or less likely to be called a continent at various times in history by various people, but nothing can be said to determine continent tally, a completely principled, non arbitrary way. Take for example, the vast country of Russia six point, six million square miles or seventeen million square kilometers a why has often been counted as part of Europe, rather than Asia Montello explained. The Euro Mountains are taken to separate Asia and Europe. But only because Russians wanted their great city of Moscow to be European, so the euros were a convenient marker for that arbitrary decision. Continents are mostly spatially contiguous collections of landmasses larger than countries, but smaller than hemispheres of course cotton's do not necessarily fit entirely within single earth hemispheres, and thus cannot be defined by ranges of latitude or longitude. Okay, so how about plate tectonics if certain landmasses are constrained to one of those massive shifting hulks? Can we safely call it? A continent Montello Says No. Quote Plate tectonics has nothing to do with it historically, and it certainly could not provide a principal basis for continents now. Nearly every continent includes parts of multiple plates. The. Same goes for climate after all continents contain multiple climates as evidenced by Alaska's Arctic. Chill compared with Florida's humid heat. They're both part of North, America. Mountain ranges and coastlines are useless to as our culture and politics. Montella said neither ethnicity race culture nor politics has ever defined continents except by conventional theories that were largely mythical such as old and fallacious ideas about correspondences between races and continents. Politically Hawaii is part of the US but is in Oceania rather than north. America Greenland is controlled by Denmark for now, but is considered part of the North American continent. So really it boils down to whom and when you ask Montello, said no one can say as a matter of principle fact, how many cotton's there are because the decisions are largely based on convention and convention that goes in and out of fashion over time, and is still debated today. He concedes these days. Many geographers would opt for a list of

Europe Dan Montello Asia Hawaii United States America Russia Asia Montello Africa South America Oceana Slash Australia Plate Tectonics Arca Moscow Euro Mountains Australia Alaska
Oil futures point higher Sunday night after OPEC+ extends output cuts to July

Morning Edition

01:16 min | 2 years ago

Oil futures point higher Sunday night after OPEC+ extends output cuts to July

"OPEC now the oil cartel held a meeting over the weekend the virtual meeting obviously we're decided to extend record cuts in oil production through July the idea of course being to keep oil prices up marketplace's Kimberly Adams reports the decision comes on the back of months of major volatility in the oil markets global demand for oil fell off a cliff as country after country locked down during the pandemic that's meant lower gas prices for consumers but a tough time for oil producers now that countries are starting to open up oil price trends are reflecting the change Robert Johnston is with the Eurasia group key parts of the world it's got it all traces back almost forty dollars a barrel and we had negative pricing for elite US will also come back a long ways so the question is ready go from here maybe not that far says Louise Dickson at restart energy she says oil's recovery will be slow and stunted by the sheer economic impact of countries and economies in GDP overall lower household spending left in this travel fewer people buying new vehicles and any recovery will also depend on what happens next with the

Opec Kimberly Adams Robert Johnston United States Louise Dickson Eurasia Group
The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?

Marketplace

02:22 min | 2 years ago

The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?

"We are in a recession like right now already thing is this isn't like the recessions we usually get were something wrong with the financial system or another part of the economy a problem it might take a while to fix right this is a pandemic a really fast moving pandemic that at some point is going to be over and that let us today to wonder how bad this recession might get how quickly it might pass and how long it's gonna take us to get back to where we were marketplace's Sabri Banna shore starts us off in one week jobless claims went from two hundred and eighty two thousand to three point three million one week that is how fast this economic downturn is happening but just because it is coming on quickly does not mean it will go away quickly the recovery is going to be staggered a sharp V. shaped recession doesn't seem likely says carpenter is chief U. S. economist at UBS securities as different parts of the country get hacked and shut down at different times the recession spreads out across time how much time welcome here says he thinks the lockdowns in the worst of the virus could pass by June but the economy we knew will not be waiting on the other side there are millions upon millions of Americans who have already and will have lost their jobs I suspect spending will be damped pretty dramatically for a lot of those people as they try to rebuild their lives the unemployment rate could fall somewhere between ten and thirty percent even people who don't lose their jobs may not spend the same way Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia group people are not going to feel comfortable going to concerts going to bars or getting on a crowded plane after nine eleven it took about two years for the truck to return to the pre attack levels here Norman bar this is chief economist of IHS Markit he says businesses like people will take on debt to get through this which will leave them much less likely to make big investments as some businesses go under supply chains will lose links we don't think will regain the pre opened nineteen levels of GDP for another two or three years so in two to three years the economy will be where it was a few months ago forget where we would have been had this pandemic not happened but despite that the US has one piece of advice this too shall pass one more time this too shall

Ubs Securities Ian Bremmer President Trump Chief Economist Ihs Markit United States Sabri Banna Eurasia Group Norman
Taking Stock of the Boeing Crash and Iran Missile Attack

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

03:55 min | 3 years ago

Taking Stock of the Boeing Crash and Iran Missile Attack

"So that was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets. Wasn't it no sooner. Had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in if if it knows those things are coming then something came that. The market's somehow were not expecting there was the missile attack last night they not really too who belligerent statement from President Trump is morning and somehow everything was fine. We've called the. Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this. She is a longtime Middle East analyst. Also now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Amy Walkman program. Thank you for having me. Let's do a quick gut check. You heard this news last night. I'm sure you as as I and many other people check the futures market. What was your? What was your initial reaction? Well I think that it makes sense that the markets calmed down afterwards. Of course wars were were hoping for a peaceful outcome for conflict resolution. But I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long road a Ho. Oh here on a very long stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic. This is if I could if I could go to my Donald Donald Rumsfeld dictionary. This is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes. The president was moderately diplomatic today. But there's so much yet to come There's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now of course. Gold is also strong because these were expecting a U. S. China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end. I do think that that hefty gold price reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second. Would you kind of make sense that. It's down hard today. long-term though I know that all the analysts are saying long-term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geopolitical risk to be had we still have tremendous unrest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see oil. Workers decide that they're going to join the anti-government protesters protesters or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States are ran in Iraq and the United States quote unquote. Okay gets kicked out. You could see sanctions on Iraq soil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran. And that would be a logical next step if things break down or you condo by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying thing about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states that benefit now because we have so many states that are producing the didn't used to the oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt. The problem is you know you and I we might not take a road trip this summer. Summer oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American. Stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up and of course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States. Okay so short-to-medium-term. What are you watching? Well I'm watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East. I think that's a very major risk. I want to see that the U. S. China trade deal comes forward and what form and then I think the markets you know The Eurasia group which is a geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geopolitical risk in the world. Today so I do think the US election depending on which way it swings it could be a major feature in financial markets. So I think we have to watch that very closely.

United States Middle East Amy Myers Jaffe Iraq Donald Donald Rumsfeld President Trump U. S. China Amy Walkman Iran Council Senior Fellow Producer The Eurasia Group