15 Burst results for "Ethan Bitcoin"
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Crypto Banter
"That should also be comfortable to the diagonal wedge, like I showed you on the weekly, and then see if it can if you could take out see if Bitcoin could take out these levels, and then I would probably long intended with Bitcoin based on where Ethereum sits on the eth Bitcoin chart. So that is kind of how I would evaluate Ethan Bitcoin and of course altcoins will come. Altcoin trades will come on the break as well. So I'll be looking at some salt. I'm going to get into them in a sec. That'll be trading in town and with Bitcoin. Because we know it's probably going to move harder once Bitcoin consolidates. I say once Bitcoin consolidates because right now this is a Bitcoin driven pump, Bitcoin probably leads the pump. So if we do end up getting this move, and I'm not saying this will happen, I'm just drawing in like a rough scenario, right? It might not actually happen like this. I'm just drawing it in to like play the game here. We could also come down and test 23 9 and that would coincide with Ethereum testing. It's 2018 all time high. Just letting you know. But if we do pump and this scenario does happen, then Bitcoin will likely have the strength versus alt on this pump and then when it consolidates, we likely will then start to see people rotating, get ingredient to alts, and that's when ultimate explodes. So you can probably trade Bitcoin eth first and then start looking at all to after. So there's no rush with the alts. You want to see how Bitcoin reacts to range high. And if it's consolidates above, then you can start looking at getting into alts, but that initial pump will be led by Bitcoin. You don't need to get too tricky with it. Just look for all sorts of good setups because at the end of the day, if you're trying to play that game, timing Bitcoin rotations into alts, it's going to be hard because you could literally be asleep and that's when the rotation happens and then you miss all your traits. So what I would do is I'd just pick a few altcoins, chart their setups, look for the best setups, and then just trade those setups. And if you're trading Bitcoin, then Bitcoin is always a good one because it's going to generally follow the market and it has had relative strength. We can see Bitcoin dominance has been performing quite well. As well. This is the Bitcoin eth chat. We could see the eth came down and also came off these lows here and pumped back into the range. So although Bitcoin eth E looks like it probably will come and test the top of the zone and the 8th will be the better trade at some point.
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Bankless
"Your choice is I'm going to just sit here and try to work with the regulators to obstruct any innovation in the U.S., in which case, by the way, it gets pushed abroad and then the UK will do stuff in Canada and Switzerland and Dubai and everything. Or are you going to say, I got to start investing in this? And if you do invest in it, then you go to the regulators and you go, we need some clarity because we're making big capital investments, and we need to understand where you come out on this stuff. Welcome to bankless, where we explore the frontier of Internet money and Internet finance. This is how to get started how to get better and how to front run the opportunity. This is Ryan Sean Adams. I'm here with David Hoffman and we're here to help you become more bankless. The institutions are still bullish. Notice the emphasis of the word still. Eric Peters is our guest today. He operates one of the largest institutional crypto hedge funds in the world. Maybe an institutional hedge fund you haven't heard of because Eric Peters is not super loud on crypto, yet this is one of the biggest funds in its space. Our question to him today was, what do the institutions think of this crypto asset class, particularly after the crazy year 2022? We just had, are they running for the hills? A few things to look out for. Number one, how did Eric avoid Luna and FDX? What does he think happened three hours capital? Hedge fund that went completely bust. What smelled off to him about Sam bankman freed. Number two, why Eric thinks a shorting narcissism is actually the winning strategy. Maybe the thing people didn't do in 2022. Number three, regulation in this space, what should we do? What should the regulators do? How should we address this? And number four, Eric ends with this story about his fight with a bunch of CIO billionaires over dinner and what he told them about macro. David, there's some deep insights in this episode about investment about crypto. Overall, it's pretty blown away with the way Eric and his fund have kind of grown in understanding of this asset class and of crypto. What were some of the things people should look for in this episode? I think the important thing to note the most is the difference in disposition between Eric as an investor as an institutional investor versus some of the gunslinging wild west to capital allocators that you find in the crypto natives. There is a personality difference between these two types of archetypes, these two types of investors in crypto. Because now they're in the same spot. Institutions are here. They've been here for a while. And Eric is an archetype of the institutional money allocator. And the disposition of these types of people are very different from the types of people that you see on crypto Twitter. Pay attention to those differences and how the word cadence comes up and these investment decisions and I think really over time the crypto asset industry will mature and start to look a little bit more like the institutional investors that we see today because the institutional investors of the world, they are built with guardrails, with rules, perhaps with more patience as to when to allocate capital. And I think as a crypto industry matures, it's going to start to look like that. And so as the crypto industry develops and matures, it's going to stop looking a lot less like the wild west and start to look a little bit like what Eric is doing over at one river asset management. And so understanding these differences that is ought gap, I think, is important. And Eric just gives age old wisdom that's always going to be true, no matter what the asset class is or no matter what decade it is. And so understanding these perspectives, perhaps a more mature investment philosophy, I think is going to behoove you as an investor, even while we still remain on the frontier. It's also going to behoove you to stick around. After the episode, if you're a premium subscriber, tap into the debrief, that is where David and I give our raw thoughts after the episode got a lot to talk to you about with respect to institutional investors, New York's temperament, all sorts of things. Also, of course, there are a hundred editions of this episode that will be available on the day this episode is released. That is Monday. The minting starts at 12 p.m. Eastern Time, so you can pick up an NFT copy of this episode as well. It's something that we started in 2023, build your collection of bankless episodes. There'll be a link in the show notes for that too. Guys, we're getting right to the episode with Eric. But before we do, we want to tell you about the sponsors that made this episode possible. In particular, we want to tell you about kraken, which is our number one recommended crypto exchange for 2023. Kraken has been a leader in the crypto industry for the last 12 years, dedicated to accelerating the global adoption of crypto, kraken puts an emphasis on security, transparency, and client support, which is why over 9 million clients have come to love kraken's products. Whether you're a beginner or a pro, the kraken UX is simple, intuitive, and frictionless, making the crack an app, a great place for all to get involved and learn about crypto. For those with experience, the redesigned kraken pro app and web experience is completely customizable to your trading needs. Integrating key trading features into one seamless interface. Kraken has a 24/7 360 five client support team that is globally recognized. Kraken support is available wherever, whenever you need them, by phone, chat or email. And for all of you NFTs out there, the brand new kraken NFT beta platform gives you the best NFT trading experience possible. Rarity rankings, no gas fees, and the ability to buy an NFT straight with cash. Does your crypto exchange prioritize its customers the way that kraken does? And if not, sign up with cracking at cracking dot com slash bankless. Hey pink, let's nation. If you're listening to this, it's because you're on the free bank list RSS feed. Did you know that there is an ad free version of bank list that comes with a bankless premium subscription? No ads, just straight to the content. But that's just one of many things that a premium subscription gets you. There's also the token report. A monthly bullish, bearish, neutral report on the hottest tokens of the month. And the regular updates from the token report go into the token Bible, your first stop shop for every token worth investigating in crypto. Bankless premium also gets you a 30% discount to the permissionless conference, which means it basically just pays for itself. There's also the AirDrop guide to make sure you don't miss a drop in 2023. But really, the best part about bankless premium is hanging out with me, Ryan, and the rest of the bank was team in the inner circle Discord, only for premium members. Want the alpha? Check out Ben the analyst degen pit, where you can ask him questions about the token report. Got a question? I've got my own Q&A room for any questions that you might have. At bank list, we have huge things planned for 2023, including a new website with login with your Ethereum address capabilities and we're super excited to ship what we are calling bankless two soon TM. So if you want extra help exploring the frontier, subscribe to bank list premium, it's under 50 cents a day and provides a wealth of knowledge and support on your journey west. I'll see you in the Discord. The phantom wallet is coming to Ethereum. The number one wallet on Solana is bringing its millions of users and beloved UX to Ethereum and polygon. If you haven't used phantom before, you've been missing out. Phantom was one of the first wallets to pioneer Solana taking inside the wallet. And we'll be offering similar staking features for Ethereum and polygon. But that's just staking. Phantom is also the best home for your NFTs. Phantom has a complete set of features to optimize your NFT experience, pin your favorites, hide your uglies, burn the spam, and also manage your NFT sale listings from inside the wallet. Phantom is, of course, a multi chain wallet. But it makes chain management easy, displaying your transactions in a human readable format, with automatic warnings for malicious transactions or phishing websites. Phantom is already saved over 20,000 users from getting scammed or hacked. So get on the phantom wait list and be one of the first to access the multi chain beta. There's a link in the show notes, or you can go to phantom app slash wait list to get access in late February. Thankless nation excited to introduce you to once again, Eric Peters he's the founder CIO of one river asset management, his fund has made some of the largest institutional investments in crypto ever. I'm talking hundreds of millions of dollars of purchases of Ethan Bitcoin. One I think was like 600 million. Something like that. Really big numbers. And when I think institutional crypto, when David, I do, we always think of Eric. Last we chatted was October 2021. So a lot has happened since that time, thankless nation. So we brought Eric on to catch up about all things. Crypto. Simpler times back then. Simpler times, Eric, welcome back to bank list. How are
Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu
"You start doing emerging markets? Do you do based on technological sectors, whatever? And looking at that. But the only sort of dumb thing to do would be to pick the major like the S&P 500, I'm sure there's a global index to get as broad of a portfolio as you can. That is a well trusted index fund and invest in that. And then as they say, diversification is critical. You're going to hear people say diversification is for suckers. The crazy thing is they're both right. Because what they mean is there really will be a winner and a loser. And if you bet on the winner, then you make all the money. And this is the guys that get incredibly wealthy. It's never on index funds. You'll get wealthy by sort of family standards, but you're never going to become Elon Musk or Warren Buffett, betting on an index fund. So if you look at somebody like Warren Buffett, who did make his money in the stock market, the way that he did it was he picked somebody he made like 80% of his wealth off of three trades. I mean, it's really ridiculous it's less than 5 for sure. So there are precious few companies where he looked at it, got it right and went all in. Now, if he had looked at it, got it right, and then was like, well, I'm still going to hedge my bets across everything. He would have much less risk for losing money, but he never would have become the richest man in the world. So again, it's optimizing risk for what you're comfortable with. I am hyper risk averse. In investing and I'm hyper risk tolerant in building. So the bad news for my wife is if I put all or most of my money at risk to build impact theory and it ends up failing, I still feel like a warrior who is in the arena and that's how I want to view myself. If I were to fail to take that risk and never try to build something great, that would really bum me out. But if I lost all my money on an investment, I would feel like an asshole. So because I don't consider myself to be a clever investor. So I need to be very thoughtful, hedge my bets, be very risk averse. And so for anybody following the FTX drama, Lisa got text messages from friends who were like, oh my God, I'm so sorry. That you guys, you know, you must really be panicking, I think they said to her. And she was like, oh my God, what the hell? And so she reaches out to me. She's like, what is FTX? And I'm like, your husband is way too paranoid for that. Like, we have no money in FTX. My heart absolutely bleeds for people that did. The loss of human capital is an absolute tragedy. But because I'm so risk averse, un investments, we didn't do that. We didn't expose ourselves to DeFi or anything, and I'm just too paranoid. So know thyself, know what your risk tolerance is, but most people would get queasy if they saw how much risk I've taken in my life on the entrepreneurial side. And then they would laugh at me if they saw how little risk I take in the stock market. I'm actually going to interject here, but you made one comment, which I don't know if it was a mistake, but you said DeFi, which just in the crypto world, it was actually a centralized exchange that caused all the drama. I was not trying to say that FTX was DeFi. I'm saying not only did I not do that, I didn't do DeFi or any of the things that get people excited because the yields are amazing. Thank you. So that nobody thinks I'm conflating the two. There were just when I got into crypto, which already I only invested in three total coins, one I sold and boiled down to just two. Bitcoin and Ethereum, even then when there was so much excitement around the kind of yield that you could get when banks were paying you nothing. I was like, nope. It just seems too good to be true. I'm going to stay safe. And so even if I look like a chump because I don't make a lot of money on the DeFi and other people are fair enough, but I'm also not going to lose money. And then literally like a few weeks later, was when Mark Cuban lost God only knows how much on a DeFi thing and I was just like, yeah. And it really does come from an acknowledgment of my level of ignorance. So I don't want anybody to think I'm smart. I want them to realize how risk averse I am as an investor. And so you just have to end the reason that I'm so risk averse. I don't think I understand it well enough. And so you need to know your level of knowledge because again, your knowledge makes predictions. If you don't have enough knowledge, your predictions are going to be terrible. And so the only things I invest in are things where I feel like I understand it well enough to make a prediction. So that, to go back to an earlier answer, that I can really buy low and sell high. So as the price of Bitcoin fell and Ethereum fell, I didn't even think about it because one, I was investing for the long term. I knew that they fluctuate wildly within any four year window. The fluctuations on Ethan Bitcoin since their inception have been violent. And so I was like, well, I know they're going to be violent swings. So I'm only going to invest so much that I still have plenty of capital, dry powder as they call it, to live my life and build when I'm building. And then I want to make sure that I don't see that number and panic. And go, oh my God, I have to sell. It's never coming back. It's like, you have to be sober in that moment and go, what was the knowledge that made a prediction? It's what people call my thesis, right? You'll hear that a lot in crypto. My thesis is still intact. What they mean is you learned something about the way that it worked, which made a prediction, and that's your thesis. So my thesis is that the world becomes more digital, relies more on the blockchain and more of the things that we think of as being physical like money are going inevitably to become digital. If it's going to become digital, what do I think will be the digital currency? Honestly, the digital currency will probably be nation based digital stablecoins if I'm completely honest, but I think Bitcoin will be digital gold and then Ethereum because we actually build on it ourselves here like that one to me is even more than a currency. It's a whole universe of creation. So anyway, as long as my thesis, whichever the case may be, as long as those remain intact, I'm I don't have an emotional problem, right? So even the other day when I saw that Ethereum was down to 1100, I was like, wow, it was almost more a fascination of like, wow, like volatility is really real. But then when you see people being devastated, devastated to the point of like weeping and obviously we know unfortunately it can go even farther than that. And it really becomes scary for me it is an emotional because I followed a set of criteria. Again, because I know my level of ignorance, this is not a clap for Tom. This is a, hey, maybe I can own up to I am as ignorant as Tom, and therefore will be as cautious as Tom. And play at that level.
Bitcoin & Crypto Trading: Ledger Cast
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Bitcoin & Crypto Trading: Ledger Cast
"Yeah. We'll get there. We'll get to agree. We need that utility and Ethan. Bitcoin, whatever it is to actually go anywhere. We can't just be speculating on this forever and expect anything to happen. I saw a tweet thread before Christmas, I think, where somebody was essentially trying to think about what are the, what are the technologies that were the most hyped and then delivered the least in the history. And they were proposing crypto as being pretty high on the list. So far. And for me, I think VR is one where it's had that similar type of thing where so hyped about how much VR is going to change everything. And then it's like, well, when? Are people going to walk around in their Oculus goggles? No. Yeah. Here's what I can see. Walking around in your being at home and your goggles and having like a robot AI walk around for you and like having some sort of connection visually to that. Lifetimes away probably, but I think AR has the potential to be really big. Yeah, we've talked about it a lot. I love AR. It was great. Your glasses could have a screen on them. You can get context for your real world in front of your eyeballs or whatever else. I think that stuff could work really well, but full on virtual reality, I don't really understand. I'd love to see AR for live sporting events. Probably exists in some form already, but those things seem very, very possible. You're at a lot of sporting event, and then you get the glory of the broadcast at the same time. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. A broadcast is so much better than a live event from a seeing the action. I wasn't going to say that, but I was thinking that because a lot of people are like, oh, no, I love going to the game. It's like no, but I want to be able to do this and watch the replay of what I just saw in real life. And I want the zoomed in angle. Yeah.
Tech Path Crypto
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"I don't know. That may swap up a little bit next year in 2023. I think that's pretty much it for the day. We'll take a quick look at charts here. So this is just the short range chart. We're looking at really about the last two weeks here. Lower right here, I'm sorry, is eth. If you look at just some of the movement here on eth from what was December 14th down to where we are right now, down around 8%, not terribly bad Bitcoin, of course we know, took a big pop right there around that same time. We'll take that and move it right there also down about 6%. But here's the thing that I'm watching on the sentiment for Bitcoin and eth. And this is in our CPI. And now in our CPI, we go back 12 to 8 periods, which are running about two weeks out, okay? But we keep records and data points of this for longer term analysis. And one thing that has happened and this is something I put in our mastermind is that we see Bitcoin potentially on a long-term downtrend. And I want you to kind of show this is Bitcoin right here. Let's go back to that chart. All right, so here's Bitcoin. I'm going to hover up so I can get both on the screen at the same time. Now, here's Ethereum, all right? Now you'll notice here that overall Bitcoin has kind of been somewhat sideways and started to tilt slightly down. Since around the 15th of December. But if you look here on Ethereum, it started to tilt slightly up. Now when we expand this out as we look at data over a longer period of time, Ethereum has an upward trend right now. And that is something that we continue to watch. Now granted, it's still underperforming its over performing on top line sentiment as is eth right now, which is at 53 Bitcoin. And 53 66, not bad. Because Bitcoin has been very resilient, but so has eat at 53 51. And we don't necessarily compare these equal because remember when we look at sentiment, it's weighted by volume and transaction numbers that we look at data wise and also the volume and transaction of the social audience conversations that we analyze. So not every token is compared neck and neck. You can't compare Bitcoin to something like cardano. Well, you can kind of actually cardano has enough of a weight because their audience. But there are certain tokens, let's say a render. Render would not compare in comparison in terms of sentiment. But Ethan Bitcoin are pretty locked step on this. And what I'm seeing right now with long-term trendlines on Ethereum is a little bit of a slightly trend up. Now, I don't know if this is something that is going to show out for us. But we have been able to see some slight movements on both Bitcoin and eth and call them when they occurred over on CPI. So anyway, those are some things we're watching. Let's go into the poll. And then we'll take a look at quotes or questions. All right, which we'll see the most growth in price and adoption 2023. Bitcoin, 43, each wins out at 57. I don't know. I wonder if I wonder guys, I'm going to get the crypto pit to tell me if that because I don't know if I am influenced that, 'cause I don't want to influence this. Because if we talked a lot about good things that about Bitcoin, but a lot of troubles and a lot of good things with Ethereum, but also some challenges that could be there. I don't know, did it take the lead last or was it always in the lead?
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Bankless
"Afford rent. I mean, millennials, they finally got out of their parents home from the 2008 crash. Hey, mom, dad, I'm coming back. On the backs of that, there's also this chart I saw on Twitter this week about rising share of companies with debt servicing costs that are higher than profits. And of course, when you increase interest rates, if you have debt, you have to pay that debt back higher because the interest rates are going up. Therefore, there's a lot of companies out there that have debts and as the interest rates go up and up and up. Higher and higher share of them are making less profit than they have available to send to pay back their debts. So service their own debts. Right now, Ryan, we are at almost 20% of companies inside of the United States with debt servicing costs that are higher than profits. Wow. That seems like a large number. You can't sustain that forever. Yeah, right? I mean, high interest rates are the zombie killer that is like the stake through the head. Right. So I guess that has to work its way through the system. No, that's not the right metaphor. A create the zombies. They create them, but then they also kill, I guess the zombies can't be killed is the thing. Yeah, yes. You go from being a human to a zombie because of interest rates. I see. I'm just seeing a world where all of these firms, they become, they're not even reanimated corpses. They're just dead. They're just gone. Well, that's when unemployment, people lay people off, unemployment goes up. That's when this goes from rising interest rates and a bear market to rising interest rates and depression. And deflation at the D one careful, careful. I'm not ready for that. Sorry, recession recession. Okay. We'll stick with that. Give us some crypto takes though. What is this? On to crypto takes. So this is now about the asset prices of ether and BTC versus some of the darlings that were of the second half of the bull market, the second half of 2020, 2021. And this is a take from Vance Spencer. Looking back through the fog of war, the data points that are revealed today uncover the pieces of the puzzle from last year. If FTX was selling client eth and BTC to buy Solana, FTT serum, this has large implications about what organic eth and Bitcoin price action would have looked like. And so this is the conversation that's been going on. It's like, oh, billions of inflows, billions of Bitcoin and ether inflows into FTX into Sam beckman for each slush fund. Where did they go? A significant amount of those inflows probably went into the Sam coins, Solana, FTD serum. Remember when Sam tweeted out sell me all your soul at $3 and then F off? Well, probably why he was so confident in that is because he was taking customer deposits and buying all of his bags with them. And so there's a broader conversation at the industry is currently having as to how legitimate some of the price action was in these highly illiquid alt layer one. Sam coins, Solana FTT serum. And that has second order effects. Why are things like apoptosis and sui have insane $1 billion valuations? Well, they rode on the backs of the evaluations that Solana got. And so because salon is price action was absolutely insane. It created the alt layer one investment like VC coin investment mania to try and ride on the backs of that. So van Spencer is saying the whole second half of the 2021 bull market was fraudulent because it was propped up by this illicit illegal fraudulent buying pressure of customer inflows of Bitcoin and ether into FTX and then Sam beckman for each was propping them up. And so his second tweet is saying that the absence of a fraudulent seller of Bitcoin and eth on the order of tens of billions of dollars, the additional absent fraudulent buyer of Solana again on the order books of tens of billions of dollars implies very different things about these ecosystems going forward and he ties this thing off and says the alt layer one thesis of yesteryear was essentially an intellectual framework built around the first mover Solana, whose initial price appreciation appears to be driven by Sam bigman freed's fraud. In my opinion, this is extremely damaging to the narrative that any alt layer one price action was organic. Oof. What a autopsy of the second half of 2021. Look, I think there's merit to this. The run up of alt layer ones, all of them. Against eth and Bitcoin did not make sense to me at the time. It was very confusing. And retrospectively, if people like Sam, well, Sam, in particular, actually using depositors funds, Ethan Bitcoin, and using those funds to actually sell those assets and exchange them for Solana and some other sand coins, which he was using as collateral, by the way. So he had to do that. Where did he get such a massive line of collateral? Well, he had collateralized FTT and collateralized sold to borrow a ton. I mean, the price charts now they make more sense to me because you could see definitely some demand for these ecosystems, but it felt inorganic the entire time. And so in our most recent podcast with fans a few months ago, he called the 2021 bull market. The first half, the high conviction rally in the second half of the low conviction rally. And so Vance already, his intuition was already like, there's a difference here. There's a difference in these moments. I just also want to call attention to people who have been right for a long time. And advanced Spencer is one of those people to me. He is starting to fit in a CRISPR camp for me. Oh, these are voices. I actually will listen to why, because they're proven over time. And they've been right enough times. And so this is a signal that I often call it. I think he could be right here. Coming up next in the show, SPF got arrested. It's such a great day. It turns out his 4D chess was just him playing checkers. Ladies and gentlemen, we got him. And after we'll cover all of that, we're going to talk about the run on binance or not? We'll get to some of the details of how much Bitcoin and how much stablecoins are actually out flowing out of binance. We got the numbers. And of course, Sam bigman reads the last insult to the industry, secretly buying a cherished media organization. No, not bankless. And just really kicking us on his way out. So all of that and more right after we talked to some of these fantastic sponsors to help you go bankless. Arbitrum one is pioneering the world of secure Ethereum scalability and is continuing to accelerate the web three landscape. Hundreds of projects have already deployed on arbitrum one, producing flourishing DeFi and NFT ecosystems. With a recent addition of arbitrum nova, gaming and social depths like Reddit are also now calling arbitrum home. Both arbitrum one and nova leverage the security and decentralization of Ethereum and provide a builder experience that's intuitive, familiar, and fully EVM compatible. On arbitrum both builders and users will experience faster transaction speeds with significantly lower gas fees with the arbitrary recent migration to archer nitro. It's also now ten times faster than before. Visit arbitrum dot IO, where you can join the community, dive into the developer docs, bridge your assets and start building your first app. With arbitrum experienced web three development, the way it was meant to be. Secure, fast, cheap, and friction free. The brave wallet is your secure multi train on ramp into web three, and it's built directly into the grave privacy browser. Gone are the days of managing multiple wallet extensions that put you at risk of fishing, spoofs, and tracking. With the brave wallet, you can securely manage your crypto assets across more than a hundred different chains, including Ethereum, layer twos, Solana, and more. All without downloading risky extensions. The brave wallet is easy to set up and remove the headache of jumping between Wallace and extensions. It's lightweight, but packed with great features, like built in token swaps, buying and holding NFTs with a gallery view and support for hardware wallets. But also much more than that, because brave is shipping new features every single month. With a mission to make web through easier to navigate for its over 55 million users. While extensions are a thing in the past. So get started with graves web three ready browser today. And experience a decentralized web seamlessly without all the clutter. You can download the browser a
Tech Path Crypto
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Tech Path Crypto
"The kind of things that will start to ease up from the fed standpoint, but you have to remember something very, very clear. And that is that chairman Powell, he's going for that 2% target. And to get to that 2% target, he understands the tightening. He doesn't have a lot of mechanisms and tool sets within the fed that can really help him. Now obviously the CPI is part of this, but really the interest rate is going to be a big part of it. And that is being able to slow. Remember again, I say this a lot is the trailing indicators. Being real estate, being jobs and also consumer credit. Those are the big ones that you have to watch out. The big one that we'll hit in January is going to be the Q four earnings. So all these things are playing out in front of us right now. So a little bit going. Let's see here. What do we got? I want to talk to you guys a little bit more on this whole JPMorgan thing. So here was kind of what people were anticipating. And especially if you look at JPMorgan, others, I don't know that they're analysts are spot on all the time, but at least they have enough data to look at to make some sort of competence metrics. Their scenario analysis for CPI data. This was the most likely outcome, according to JPM. Between 7.2 and 7.4, which would send the S&P 500 higher by two to 3%. This is kind of where it was going. And then they gave this little scenario analysis, a 7, 8, I don't even know why they put that on there. I just didn't see anything coming at us at that rate. 7 .577, probably a little bit different. And then a 7 two to 7 four, up to, you know, and then right here, the 7 to 7.2 around a 15% probability up four. So not a bad situation overall, I think it came in slightly under, but they kind of created a little bit more of a breadth to where the market might respond based on what was up for grabs really with the CPI. So the fact that we saw almost almost that 300 basis points that I was talking about is when we get to our three tenths of a basis points when we get to that kind of level is where we would see some really big movements. And one thing that we were looking at is anything around the 7 figure was really going to get active for not only securities but I think Bitcoin and eat. Notice also and I think you guys are watching the charts enough. Not a lot of other projects moved with this. Including metaverse gaming, many of those that but when you look at eth and Ethereum here in a minute, our Ethan Bitcoin in a minute, there was movement.
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Bankless
"This is the second part of this whole setup. Yes, let's talk about that. So that's the first domino, but like three hours capital. They're feeling good right now, right? And so what do they do? This is the second domino to get to get put up there, which is three hours capital. They've taken their winnings and they're actually deploying it into crypto and some of maybe what we might call at this point in the rotators rotation, which is what three hours capital are. They just rotate in and out of things. The blue chip assets. Ethan Bitcoin. So what are we looking at here this tweet? Yeah, so domino number two is three zeros capital gwent takes their winnings from this and they go long on ether and Bitcoin. And then this tweet in particularly fast forward to November where we actually skip into domino number three, where after 2021. Yeah, November 2021, where they take their Bitcoin and ether winnings, and they start to go even further out on the risk curve. And so the 2020 for them was milking the GBTC premium that premium turns into a discount in February of 2021. So 2020, they were milking the GPC premium 2021 that premium turns into a discount. And they've made enough money to go along on ether and Bitcoin. And that was the first half of the year. That was the first half of 2021. But then they start to go out on the risk curve. And so this next tweet is three hours capital leading at $230 million investment into avalanche tokens. And so that happened on September 16th, 2021. I think that's the next link right. And if you want to click that one. Yeah. So this is yeah, probably chain three hours capital, $230 million investment into avalanche. Importantly, Ryan locked avax tokens, illiquid avax tokens. The next two, the next two tweets here to suzu being bullish on saloon of axe. And this was a tweet like hashtag that got really, really popular. And it's because they were going out on the risk curve. They were done with Ethereum, and they were going on to the Ethereum killers. This next tweet is Kyle Davis, Davies being bullish on Luna, when was this next tweet? I want to click on the next week. Yeah, this is from March 20 march 28th at the beginning of 2022. And so three errors capital went out on the risk curve. They borrowed a bunch of money from genesis. They won with ether and Bitcoin. They started to go out on the risk curve with soluna avax, right? Remember all this. Remember this phase in the bull market? Yeah, are you guys seeing that euthanasia roller coaster of the circle's getting smaller? Like we just went through so what's happening is throws capital and other hedge funds like them are doing similar kind of trades, but they just made a whole bunch of money on DeFi summer. They're coming in right now they're coming back and they're arbitrary using an arbitrage opportunity and GBTC, right? They're making money at the beginning of 2021 in that way. And then they're going margin and long, by the way. And then they're pouring that into blue chips like Bitcoin and eth, right? And then that's not enough.
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Crypto Curious
"They reckon that will be 8.2%, and that will most likely impact the market as well. If that's a bad sign. So I remember a few years ago, no one even knew what these were. Now everyone's watching it. When is that FOMC? Is that like quarterly? That happens? No, it's been monthly. So that's the federal open market committee that gives that one. It's the same as here. So it's like the RBA with their interest rates. So it's every month. Yeah. Crazy. People are waiting to inflation's finished, you know? I think we still get a little bit more to go, but hopefully we're coming to the end of the price increases that we see day to day. Moving on from that, historically November is a volatile month for crypto. FMB coin of both had their best and worst performing months during that time. And I think that really follows on from what we're saying just a couple of weeks ago, Tracy, how the volatility index was so low, and then moving on from that we expect to see more price movement. So in November in 2019, Ethan Bitcoin were both up over 40%. And let's say that that was in a bull market or leading into a bull market. In November, 2020, SM Bitcoin were both down 20%. So really, it could go away. We have CPI inflation, midterms, Elon punting doge, we have a little bit of a pump at the end. It's going to be like four or 5 different events that are happening this month. So that's why you should DCA and maybe not worry about things. Exactly exactly. You get too caught up in these things and it's too stressful. Honestly, if we have never seen a better case for dollar cost averaging in slowly and taking the stress out of it, there you go. So a lot of chatted through the bamboo office this week and on WhatsApp speculating on Dogecoin and the recent pump. Now all of this is coming about due to one thing really. Twitter and chief twit as he aptly named himself. Mister Elon Musk took over at Twitter headquarters and shook things up a little bit. Firstly, he walked into the building with the kitchen sink. I'm assuming that's like sink in. I don't know. And then went on a bit of a firing spree, letting most of the upper management team go. So we know Elon is prone at all very pro crypto sorry. So this is a big deal in our crypto world, which is why we're all chatting about it. You've got to be to say here. So Twitter has approximately 450 million monthly users. And of course, your implementing a crypto wallet. I don't know how many would use it. It depends on its functionality, but it's a big play. Are they trying to potentially compete with WeChat, you know? It's a social media platform where you message one another and it has embedded wallet so you can pay your bills and transfer money to another as well. And that's one of the biggest social media platforms in the world.
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on The Breakdown
"To Dan mcardle, a cofounder at massari, and one of the folks behind case for Bitcoin, and his take which kind of breaks apart this dialectic of Ethan Bitcoin running the same race. Apologies to you guys who heard this threat on Thursday, but I thought it was relevant enough to read it again. The Ethereum merges bullish for both Ethan BTC, merge being bullish for eth is pretty much a consensus view. And I think merge will differentiate Bitcoin from Ethereum even more, which is long-term good for both. Yes, short term, I think a lot of people see merge as a negative for Bitcoin. Specifically because it reduces Ethereum's energy used by 99%, thus making Bitcoin more of a loan ESG target. That is indeed annoying and will have an impact near term. But over the longer run, I think proof of work will be an asset to Bitcoin or proof of stake will be an asset to Ethereum. These two assets and networks have fundamentally different goals designs and approaches. Proof of work and proof of stake have fundamentally different tradeoffs and guarantees. Proof of work can be optimal for Bitcoin while proof of stake is for eth, no contradiction there. And so I think this makes Bitcoin core's properties more clear. While Ethereum is executing an extremely complex in flight change to core properties of network and monetary policy, Bitcoin keeps both simple and reliable. Coming out of this Bitcoin will be the sole large network with a simple battle tested and more clearly egalitarian consensus model. If we'll come out with a brand new monetary model and a lot of new complexity. That's fine for ease. Merge optimizes the network for being a widely used tech platform. While Bitcoin is simple, battle tested egalitarian proof of work model is better for something trying to scale socially as global money and store of value. Additionally, I think the narrative on proof of work will change over time. The ESG based attacks are ludicrous on many levels and enough people and politicians will see that eventually. And the remaining haters will matter even less. Also, proof of work brings geopolitical advantages. We'll see both power companies and nation states generally wanting to use Bitcoin mining to both monetize trained resources and act as grid stabilizing technology. This is happening now. Proof of work is therefore a vector for Bitcoin to become more geopolitically relevant and embedded. That offers a form of long-term security that I still think is pretty underappreciated. Anyway, I think it's more clear than ever that Bitcoin and 8th are not competitors. They're going after different markets with fundamentally different tech and approaches. Merge will make the differentiation even more clear, which is good for both. So Dan is doing two things differently than Chris. First of all, he's not necessarily arguing that Bitcoin needs to become productive or be more than this store of value type of money. Second, he's starting to articulate a world in which Ethereum and Bitcoin are not running the same race, which they have different functions where different technical considerations might lead to different decisions. Now, Peter McCormick sort of got it that difference as well without even necessarily meaning to when he wrote, I can't help but feel that the Ethereum merges their S two X moment, where Bitcoin defended against a push for centralization Ethereum has failed. The consequences will likely be felt sometime down the road. The presumption that underlies this and I don't think it's unreasonable for Peter to assume this. Is that the defense against a push for centralization is Ethereum's primary goal. It is clearly for most bitcoiners. Bitcoin's nature as an apolitical censorship resistant store of value with a fixed monetary policy is what makes it Bitcoin and what makes it valuable, what makes it different. Ethereum has many visions for what it is. There are certainly those folks who are excited about the deflationary properties of the new tokenomics, who meme about ultrasound money, there are others who are focused much more on different properties of Ethereum, and all the things that can be built on top of it. So the question will be will time show the purposes of these networks to be different enough that these different models proof of work and proof of stake do end up working fine for each as Dan suggests. Or, and this is possible. We'll censorship issues remain important enough for Ethereum that the increased difficulty of dealing with censorship requests from governmental pressure due to having regulated entities be such big portions of the staking pool actually be problematic. There is also finally a question of what Bitcoin wants to be. Around the merge hasu got into a very reflective mood. He wrote a couple of threads in the first one said, I've never shared this before, but in 2019, 2020, I got very close to starting the Bitcoin longevity institute. A research hub with the mission to study very long-term threats that could potentially kill Bitcoin, like the declining block subsidy. I eventually folded the idea because of a mix of factors. One strong resistance to the idea that Bitcoin may not be perfect as is two little interest from big companies to fund it. I think in part, due to the publicity risk from number one, and number three, DeFi summer happened in sucked me more into Ethereum. It's interesting to think about how that alternative timeline would have looked like. He went on in another thread. The merge has only convinced me further that the intellectual state of the Bitcoin community is truly in shambles. The high quality people who remain bitmex research are mostly covering Ethereum now. I still have Bitcoin very much and hope for a restorative movement. In 2020, Paul Tudor Jones said, I've never seen an inflation hedge that had a kicker. That you also had such great intellectual capital behind it. Bitcoin is a bet on human ingenuity and entrepreneurialism. This concept that other inflation hedges are bets on the fallacy of mankind while Bitcoin as a bet on the ingenuity and creativity of mankind was one of the most bullish statements I had ever heard up to that point. But to what degree is that still true today? As of today, I think Bitcoin is still an incredible brand in network. But the human ingenuity and creativity are gone. And frankly, have been largely in 2020 as well. I just refuse to see it back then. Simply speaking, a bet on Bitcoin today is still a bet on a great asset and network as is. And maybe that's enough for a bright future. Maybe not. But it's no longer a bet on human creativity, entrepreneurialism, and problem solving, and that's what's making me really sad. Now, there were a couple interesting responses. Bitmex research who hassu called out as an example of some of the best that are still there, responded saying, be wary of viewing 2011 and 2017 with rose colored glasses. I am nomad wrote basically it might just be you who has changed. He said, get LRC disagree, newsgroup certainly disagrees. The chat around the actual work just doesn't happen on Twitter. People just want to fight here, so I don't blame devs for barely updating. Also, getting attacked from any bag holder of garbage coin X or underwater gets old fast. The major accounts liking this tweets are the same one using 2016 era arguments. Cut and paste Bitcoin cash marketing, which they're to marketing Bros adopted in 18. I think your interest in revenues have shifted so that other things appear less interesting and that's okay. Now, one of the questions of this discourse is the Talking Heads versus the builders. That's a problem everywhere, but particularly in crypto, where there is such a disproportionately higher number of people whose quote unquote contribution to the community is just them talking about the asset that they like most on Twitter. What nomad is pointing out is that the people who are actually providing that entrepreneurial energy to Bitcoin may just be quietly working in the background because they want nothing to do with it. However, the other question, though, that I think is worth asking is what do people really want Bitcoin to be? Most of the fights on Twitter are about is extra Y better. And then there are meta fights about how people talk to each other. But ultimately, the interesting question is what's the vision for the network and what's the path to get there? Even in the pieces that I've read today, Chris and Dan had very different views. A Bitcoin that wants to just be a global settlement layer that is permissionless, hard to capture and resistant to state level attacks might look different than a layered Bitcoin that feels that it needs to have productive functions built on top of it. Could also be that Bitcoin doesn't care and different people will build off of it, whatever versions of it they want. I think these are good questions to reflect on. And this is a good time to do so. Former bitmex CEO gave his vision, retweeting hassu and saying, be not dismayed. Lord satoshi is the one true God. Bitcoin doesn't need to do anything, just exist. That is all and in time all centers will repent. I want to say thanks again to my sponsors next to IO, chain analysis and FTX, and thanks to you guys for listening.
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on The Breakdown
"Welcome back to the breakdown with me and I'll W it's a daily podcast on macro Bitcoin and the big picture power shifts remaking our world. The breakdown is sponsored by nexo IO, chain analysis, and FTX. And produced and distributed by coindesk. What's going on guys? It is Sunday, September 18th, and that means it's time for long reads Sunday. Before we get into that, however, if you are enjoying the breakdown, please go subscribe to it, give it a rating, give it a review or if you want to dive deeper into the conversation. Come join us on the breakers Discord. You can find a link in the show notes or go to bit LY slash breakdown pod. Also, a disclosure, as always, in addition to them being a sponsor of the show, I also work with FTX. Now, it is only fitting for Ethereum merge week that we do a merge themed long read Sunday. Although what we're actually going to look at is the contemplation it is prompted around Bitcoin and its relationship both to Ethereum as well as to itself. So first we're going to read a piece called Bitcoin should change slowly. Reconsidering the first cryptocurrency slow and steady approach to development as Ethereum's merge nears. The pieces by Chris castiglione who works on a secure chat platform for web three called console dot XYZ is a general manager at trust machines, which is building on Bitcoin and is an adjunct professor at Columbia University business school. Chris writes, Bitcoin is slow to change, transaction speeds are too slow for a global payment system. The community is reluctant to embrace novelty, and the rate of new innovation in comparison to nearly every other blockchain is tortoise like. Fortunately for Bitcoin, I believe it's slow and steady pace will ultimately be its superpower. This year, Ethereum will undergo a radical upgrade known as the merge. The event scheduled for mid September will change the underlying consensus mechanism that allows blockchains to function from something like Bitcoin's proof of work system to a more experimental model called proof of stake. It's a development that has been underway for years. Vitalik Buterin, the cofounder of Ethereum announced that a Paris based Ethereum conference that after the merge, Ethereum was still only 55% complete. There's a list of upgrades to Ethereum slated for the next two decades. The Ethereum community, buterin caution should learn to expect short term pain and long-term gains. The mentality of development opens Ethereum up to a new possible futures, but also risk. Herein lies the opportunity for Bitcoin, an opportunity to embrace its slow rate of change so that it can become the world's most valuable forever database. A forever database is a gift to humanity. I've heard blockchains described a million different ways an immutable ledger, a shared system for recording data, a growing list of records secured by cryptography. All of this is fine, but for the average person these explanations are confusing. The simplest definition of a blockchain is a forever database. Maybe you're a total beginner and you can't picture a database. No problem, and if forever database is one in which when you write data, that data is stored, well forever. Due to a series of design decisions, blockchains are immutable. Theoretically, the data store becomes a bulletproof record of truth for thousands of generations to come. Since Bitcoin went live on January 3rd, 2009, the network has never gone down, been hacked or stopped storing new data. Bitcoin is also a currency that can't be inflated by selling point that has become the network's chief use case. The bookkeeping is never wrong. Imagine that being able to trust that 1000 years from now that your data and money will still be accessible. Not only that, but people living many generations into the future could verifiably trust this ledger is true. That's powerful. Forever databases enable novel use cases beyond money like instruments, which are primarily being explored on networks beyond Bitcoin. Mike boj's crypto art project zero X infinity allows you to publish love letters the site claims will last forever or as long as the Ethereum network is running. Are we as a file storage system that claims to store documents and applications forever and starling labs as a project that, among other things, has uploaded 56,000 Holocaust survivor testimonials to preserve evidence of human rights abuses and protect against future disinformation. A forever database ensures the integrity of our collective memories in a way that previous databases could not. And yet, consistency is the key ingredient. As long as Ethereum, Solana, and other blockchains continue to upgrade their code base, they can't compete on consistency. In early 2022, the Solana blockchain, known for its move fast and break things mentality, suffer two outages, each of which took the network down for several hours. The key superpower that makes a blockchain forever database is being resilient to outages, a forever database should never go down. If it does, let's just call it database. For Bitcoin to thrive, users need to do more than just hold their money. Bitcoin needs to become productive. There's an opportunity for bitcoiners to harness the power of their forever database through the use of additional layers. CG lightning or stacks so that they can build new applications. The race to embrace layers. Stacks is an example of a layer that adds programmability to Bitcoin. With stacks clarity smart contracts you can create applications, social networks, photo sharing apps, chat apps, with the underlying transactions are secured by Bitcoin. On Ethereum similarly, polygon is a popular layer developers used to scale the Ethereum network. The difference is that if Ethereum were to fail, polygon and all of Ethereum's additional layers would follow, falling like a House of Cards. We need a new layer, one that can access bitcoins forever database. It and only it can be a complete system on which we build the future. In 2010, Satoshi Nakamoto, Bitcoin's founder, first encouraged the idea of building layers on Bitcoin. Quote, I think it would be possible for a blockchain to be a completely separate network in separate blockchain yet share CPU power with Bitcoin. When nakamoto saw back then, was the opportunity for Bitcoin to be more than just money. Slow and steady wins the race. If we wish to create a forever database, we must celebrate Bitcoin's approach to long-term stability. This is what Vitalik Buterin was doing when he set Ethereum should become more Bitcoin like by emphasizing long-term stability. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum will do great things for humanity. I'm excited to see them each take their own approach to building the future. As Ethereum evolves swiftly, I believe it will continue to innovate. However, until Ethereum settles down, it will lose its standing in the race to become a forever database. It's taking on too much risk, and the world may never know exactly what Ethereum will look like until decades down the line. This is Bitcoin's moment. Bitcoin needs to embrace building layers. Bitcoin should not remain as money. It must learn how to be productive. Ultimately, I believe slow and steady is the secret to winning the race, because while fast may get all our attention, it's slow that has all the power. All right, so here we have a vision for how Bitcoin evolves at what speed and in what ways Chris argues that it needs to be productive, more than money, but needs to do so at its own pace and based on layers. However, that piece is still kind of presents Ethan Bitcoin adversarially, as though there is one winner. And maybe that's just the convention of the analogy of the tortoise and the hair that runs throughout. Nexo is a security first platform built for the long run, with everything you need for your crypto. 5 key fundamentals, including real-time auditing and insurance on custodial assets, safeguard your funds. Making nexo the right place for you to buy, exchange, and borrow against your assets safely. Learn more about nexo's reliable business model and start your crypto journey. At nexo dot IO. That's nexo dot IO. Eager to make more informed decisions around crypto, chain analysis is here to help. She now is demystifies cryptocurrency by providing industry leading compliance, market intelligence, and investigations support for all crypto assets. For organizations like Gemini, crypto dot com and BlockFi. Gain unparalleled visibility and maximize your potential with the leading blockchain data platform. By visiting us now, at chain analysis dot com slash coin desk. The breakdown is sponsored by FTX U.S. FTX U.S. is the safe regulated way to buy and sell Bitcoin and other digital assets. With up to 85% lower fees than competitors. There are no fixed minimum fees, no ACH transaction fees, and no withdrawal fees. One of the largest exchanges in the U.S. FTX U.S. is also the only leading exchange that supports both Ethereum and Solana NFTs. When you trade NFTs on FTX, you pay no gas fees. Download the FTX app today and use referral code breakdown to support the show.
CoinDesk Podcast Network
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on CoinDesk Podcast Network
"So this week instead of just a deep dive on some topic I haven't had a chance to do yet, we are doing a true weekly recap, looking at the most important stories from the days before and we're going to start with the biggest macro event shaping while everything in markets right now, which was the June inflation numbers which we got on Wednesday. Now if you go back to last month when in the beginning of June we got maze numbers, they kind of took people by surprise. Economists had by and large expected inflation to go down slightly to still be high at 8%, 7.9%, but instead we surprised the other direction, hitting 8.6 in the CPI. In the wake of this surprise markets but especially crypto were absolutely hammered. We're talking Ethan Bitcoin being both down 30 to 40% and other assets going down even more. Remember June ended up being the worst month in Bitcoin's history when it comes to price. Now, when those numbers came in, the fed was widely anticipated to be heading towards a 50 basis point rate hike in June and a 50 basis point rake hike in July. However, at the last minute, the fed started signaling through their preferred channels that they might go up to 75 basis .0 .75% increase in the federal funds rate, and that was indeed what they did. The 0.75% increase was the biggest increase since 1994, and all of that together meant that this month's CPI reports was extremely highly watched. Starting from Monday, The White House was prepping and damage controlling and narrative shifting. Effectively, they were saying expect a really high number, but also just so you know, it doesn't reflect that gas had already been coming down continuously. The argument which they've continued with throughout this week is that the extremes of the number that actually came through was largely backward looking and didn't anymore reflect the reality, particularly when it comes to the price of gasoline. The number that came in Wednesday for the year over year CPI growth was 9.1%. This is the biggest jump since 1981. In addition, the CPI had grown 1.3% month over month. Gasoline, food, and shelter were all big drivers of this increase. Now this certainly reinforced the consensus view that the fed was going to at least stick with their 75 basis point plan. But over the next 36 hours or so, it also increased how much of the market thinks that we're headed to something even more dramatic. By Thursday, the bond market was pricing in more than an 80% probability of a 100 basis point AKA 1% rate hike at the FOMC meeting at the end of July. Keep in mind a week ago there was effectively 0% probability of that showing up in markets and only a 7.6% probability by Tuesday night ahead of the CPI print. Charlie biello pointed out that the last time the fed hiked rates by 100 basis points in a single meeting was 1981. The same time inflation was last above 9% in the U.S.. When a fed governor was asked about the possibility of a 100 basis point rate hike in July, he responded everything is in play. To which Alex Krueger tweeted, guess 100 basis points in July then. Now on top of just this most immediate meeting coming up, expectations of what we're likely to see at the September and November meetings are starting to change as well. Whereas previously, the market had thought that the fall would see smaller hikes of back to 25 basis points or something like that. Those expectations have been revised up significantly. The market is now betting on a 75 basis point hike in September and a 50 basis point hike in November. And good lord the politics around inflation is just brutal for Biden and the Dems. Bloomberg on Thursday wrote Biden calls inflation numbers out of date. Americans disagree. And goes on to say, quote, fed officials took it differently. Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland president Loretta mester said that she had quote not seen any convincing evidence that inflation had turned the corner and fed board member Christopher Waller called the consumer price index report quote a major league disappointment. So will the fed back off. Frankly, it seems unlikely. They are fully on the Jerome Powell is Paul Volcker, not Arthur burns tip. Outspoken investor Bill ackman wrote a long threat about this as well. Quote, implicitly the markets expect a more aggressive fed will push us into recession by year end and then cut rates in response. Fed dot plots from a few weeks ago suggests that the federal funds rate will rise to slightly higher levels remain flat in 2023 with a gradual reduction beginning in 24. After today's move, the disparity between the forward federal funds curve and the fed has widened further. The market appears to assume that the fed will act as it did in the last three recessions by immediately easing when the economy goes into recession. While this seems intuitive, the lessons of the stagflationary periods of the 70s and 80s suggest that different policy response. Today's economic backdrop with high nominal demand limited supply and high inflation is much more comparable to the 70s and 80s experience than that of the last three recessions that are top of mind for investors. Arthur burns legacy is tarnished by his decision to lower rates as real GDP slowed during a period of high inflation. This catalyzed years of massive inflation which was not quelled until Volcker took the federal funds rate to 20%. Burns policy error is well understood by Powell and the fed governors and likely explains their dot plot curves. We believe the fed will keep the federal funds rate at higher levels for longer, even if we enter a recession in 2023 or sooner, and we believe demand will remain elevated, supply will remain constrained, and high levels of inflation will persist. The fed has two blunt tools the federal funds rate and managing expectations. Yearend federal funds projections are beginning to approach where they need to be. Market expectations for federal funds needs to be managed upward beginning at year end, and for the next 18 to 24 months. Markets remain dismissive of dot plots in recent statements by fed governors on the risk of allowing inflation expectations to become unanchored. I expect the market will adjust federal funds expectations upward as the fed provides more clarity and emphasis on the need for higher rates for longer, and when market participants carefully review the 70s and early 80s precedents and their comparability to current economic conditions. The reason it's worth reading this whole thing is one, it actually gets at the nut of what I think the fed is thinking about, which is this comparison to the 70s. And two, because in many ways, people like Bill ackman saying this out loud gives them effective cloud cover from Wall Street to continue on this path. In times like these, security of your assets should be your number one priority. If you want to offset risk as much as possible and still stay in crypto, you need a trusted partner by your side. Nexo is
Bitcoin Crypto Mastermind
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Bitcoin Crypto Mastermind
"Of compensate for each other and one can cover for dollar one. Does that make sense? So the same thing would happen in a portfolio of crypto assets. So if you have so you obviously have stablecoins and you have assets that are super volatile, let's say, meme coins as an example. And then you have Ethan Bitcoin that are somewhat more stable, but then if you find assets that are negatively correlated to give you to give you an example, I've been following Olympus token for a long time. For a long time, it's not true anymore. We're talking these crypto guys are like Alex ty, you guys can't even think about competing with swaps because there's these entrenched players. We look it's like which ones. You mean the one that's 48 days old? Oh yeah, totally entrenched competition. But the point is, it was negatively correlated. You could actually see every time Ethereum would go up. They're talking would go down and vice versa. So it makes sense to have the two of them in a portfolio. Does that make sense? So they kind of make up for each other. And that's something that is not. I don't see done. It's obviously done a lot in constructing pension fund or portfolio in the traditional finance, but I don't see it done very much in crypto. Everybody is after the next 100 X return over the next week. Kind of scenario. Yeah. And I mean, the layman, as you were mentioning, I think the easiest way for people to do that is just hold 33% stables or 50% stables because then no matter what the market's doing, it goes up, congratulations, your 50% risk on market goes down, great. Start dollar cost averaging 5% in. Bitcoin just crashed to ten K, it's not your worst day. It's your lucky day because if you're putting it into Bitcoin, you probably have a long time horizon regardless. So congratulations, here's your opportunity, capture it. I got a lot of, I got a lot of hate because in 2017, August 2017, I did the first crypto mastermind, had all these people, some of them are crypto billionaires at the house. And they progressed, you know, and then they crashed in 2018 and people were like, oh, you led people and got them to buy in and then it crashed. I'm like, bitch, what the fuck are you talking about? First off, I told people, you always dollar cost average in and dollar cost average out. This is like such pedantic basic finance IQ. It's been memorialized by economists for 40 years if you know how to do math. And first off, you mean, yes, you do have to educate people because the average person who went through the modern school system is so financially illiterate that they see a bull run as more advantageous than bear. Bull run is advantageous when you got in during the bear. But the bull in and of itself is of no advantage to you because the bull creates a greed, it creates mass psychosis. So as you get in during the bull, you go, you never sell. So people will write it all the way up and down. So really, you know, the ideal situation is to get in during the bear. Because in the barrier you're catching, if you map out an economic movement, you have the peak, you have contractionary period. You have a bottom, and you have an expansionary, and then you have the top and it just never ends. And there is no in terms of optimal time to get in. You can argue any time it's optimal to get in. The sooner the better in everybody's life. Warren Buffett started investing, I think, at 7. That's the best way to get rich. You invest at 7. As they say, time in the market is better than timing in the market. But really for practicality, most people are better getting in in the bear run in the bear phase because when it's down your expectations are lower, the green level gets lower and as it starts to get it starts to rise, you go, let me put a little more in. And let me put a little more in. And as it peaks, maybe you go, let me at least take my initial cost basis off the table, you know? And so people are, it's very strange for all that crypto. I mean, I feel like crypto tracks some of the smartest people. And there's two types of crypto people. The 20% who are smart people. And then the 80% who have the appearance of intelligence but have the behavior, you know, of the masses, no differentiation. They just have more jargon. Jargon, I mean, me and Alex, we have about it in our company. I'm about 600 employees and we own big brands, pier one, and these are mainstream brands. This is 9 figure revenue stuff. And we hire people sometimes and I can tell I'm the CEO. They want a jargon and be like, see, I know, it's a variable gross margin. I'm like, stop. This Albert Einstein used the least amount of jargon to explain E equals mc². And so anyway, Alex, what's the day you wish you had gotten into crypto? Assuming you can't get in at the day Bitcoin launches. In the last 5 years, when's the best time? It trade is never over until you exit it. So the question is, when would you have gotten in and when you would have gotten out? But I want to challenge that concept even further. Think like a chess grandmaster. I play chess once a month or a couple of times a month with the number two grand master in the world. Fabiano him in Magnus Carlsen are always trying to compete for the best chess master grandmaster. When you think about grandmaster, okay, is the trade really over when you get out?
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on Unchained
"One thing i will say as you know about how open sea is on the top burner of ease since the upgrade You know. I was looking at the times when the net issuance on a theorem turned negative in this past week and it was basically during nfc drops. And you know it's funny. Because in one of the offices they recorded. i hadn't even heard of one of the end of t will actually so for the research for this episode. I hadn't heard of any of these until having to do research in these episodes Was called kovic punks. The other was art blocks. The last one was fluff world entities like digital rabbits by The point is that it's so similar to the icu. Craze when during the ico's the usage on the blockchain would be so congested that you know all these actions were failing and Like even if you had some other transaction that you were trying to do that was not even a real related to the. Ico wouldn't go through and during that time you know it was just that wasn't really usable But here it is now that I'm not sure how it's affecting usage but But regardless like the demand for eighth at that moment for usage of these the space on these blocks is helping then add value to eat by making the net issuance decorative so so at least you know i agree that. Emp one five nine is like a a change that should be beneficial to the theory price in that regard so one other thing i want to ask about was oftentimes with bitcoin. When looking on geometric seizing kinda see when bitcoin is to offline cold wallets and This is often a proxy for like the tuitions are whales that are buying bitcoin coin. Basically and the blocks frank shapiro recently reported that is petitions are demanding eath and it's actually causing firms like night egg and fidelity to expand in east and as we know in coins the second quarter eve trading volumes did top bitcoin volumes for the first time so Frank reported that his sources were saying that the reason these institutions are having to expand to eat is or wanting to expand. Anyth- is that they're looking for yield so i wondered too on chain activities. Show that ethan. Moving to offline cold wallets. Or what are you seeing in that regard. I'm not sure about the off. Line cold wallets bullock one metric that we track internally on one. Confirmation is a number of unique addresses that hold more than zero hold more than a one eighth. So it's kind of a proxy for like how many users believe in e as a digital currency on our in our in our holding on that metric has been going up into the right over the past year so more so than bitcoin like the growth rate is much more pronounced bitcoin so that does support the narrative that this more people whether or not institutions or retail. That are i by okay. Yeah i guess like the one thing is obviously if it's so much cheaper than bitcoin so the fact that slowdown for bitcoin but not Also for bitcoin. We actually talked zero point zero one so he could going value is roughly. Wow you can't you can't compare like one eats to one right okay so even when you make that comparison than the humiliation of if is still if you take roughly the same Dollar value of ethan. Bitcoin accumulation of is growing at a faster pace than l. o. Interesting i guess so in one way or there's a difference. There were sold the the best thing for. Bitcoin is kind of just a surpri disappears. Right the no one touches their bitcoin will and the just like their scarcity But theory most want to be used. It's a computer right vanessa. Bunch of applications that people It's a good thing if they use it so so i think it's in one way of course if people's investment believing in the currency but you also if we didn't have all of this like ten activity that we've been talking about now for our That would be really bad right. You want addresses to engage and uses protocols and spend their eat them on gas and and be engaged with the the system as well. And i think that's just as important as How many are are holding own. And i think those data points together is is. What's really elsie. There's interesting going on with it right because then if at least for two of the three characteristics of money is displaying those characteristics one would be as historic value and the other is as a medium of exchange. So all right to now. Let's were running out of time. So let's touch on layer twos which came up earlier. What are you seeing in terms of the layer to race. I did happen to look at a website called l. Beat and the top two projects by by value locker. Dvd accent loop bring both of which use zeki roll up technology. Fourth is optimism which uses optimistic roelofs after that the value locked with kind of a steep. Drop so i just was curious. What are you guys seeing in terms of metrics when it comes to layer twos. Where do you think that composition competition going. You're optimistic up. So i just around the corner like right now. Arbitrary optimism have kind of private one soft launches so developers can move their adapts over a low. They're still like trading limits Just to work out the bugs silly. It hasn't gotten it's like full user activity like once those launch. I then is gonna be a lot of activity on layer to a lot of volume as well as Like a lot of money..
The Bitcoin Podcast
"ethan bitcoin" Discussed on The Bitcoin Podcast
"April to june from from the middle of april to the almost end of june. Is that bad though. That's pretty bad. I mean just looking at the chart. That's the biggest drop was. The difficulty will adjust and the price. Will you know he always just difficulty will address. So what is supposed to happen for. Everybody knew here. The bitcoin difficulty will adjust in. It will become easier to mind bitcoin. Which if the game theory is correct in what we should see in practice. Actual what is going to happen. Is that different areas around. The globe are now going can competitively mine so they will competitively mind so we should see a bottoming out on the hash rate that we should start to go back up as other groups of people can profitably mind. But this is. This is where it studying now. I'm glad that there's academia looking at this me arena does not academic but like what we're seeing now is one since twenty nineteen thousand now We can. I would say fifty fifty assume that all that has growth was going on in china because that should has dropped all the way down to wear wasn't twenty nineteen which is two years ago and we all know china. Turner minors off. And that's incredible to me. That a hundred eggs hashes were coming from just china. That is fucking mind boggling to me so where do those one hundred exit hatches go. Do they ever turn back on. I don't know now to get back to the thing about a positive correlation means that of thing goes down other thing goes down well Biggest hash rate. Drop in the history of big win price drop in the history bitcoin. Those things are medium correlated. Now i do also believe that. The correlation is dependent upon time is not as a medium correlation. So as ray goes down prize. A big win goes down. Go down as we're going up price a bit going up all going to go up. Those are the correlations. Right there like for the newbies audience. So are you just trying to pin the price movement on nash rate. That's what we did when we crunched all those numbers and we felt like we. We know that realistically there's a lot of other things at play you know yes. There are never going to get to the y. But that doesn't refute the correlation being. What the correlation is so it will. What is actionable about that observation. I don't know that's that's science comes into play. That's for the big bucks makers like gory that are scientists started Dive deep into that correlation. Figure out the why right. I guess what i'm trying to ask like. I can't really do anything can really make money on that. You can't make because you like hash rate. Asd price halved. Now liz i make money your forest i throw. Throw my negro jonah sticker please. I don't think so. But damn does she mute nope. Oh that's a that's a patriots that's patriot. That's time to get off. Mike is i was dragged. Maybe no no. She's not she can do what she wants she said. Share the chart. That's a good. You know we should have a separate. Might we're listening. We should be able to listen to alicia like god do. Yeah let me see if i could share. You know you go bring this on an ear. They're doing price look at us. I'm not. I'm not doing anything. Praise you If you look here we did. We've got our sauce right. Triangle looks to me like if we go from this point here to that point there in the down to the floor of that point. We've got ourselves is thirty. Sixty ninety triangle which is telling me that a theory of on three six nine scale were to have a third increase than a sixth third increase in ninety resemble back. So do you want with those triangles. If you will now one thing to take into consideration is that the high pot news from here From there while we just lost the or this isn't price though. Look so this is the hatch rate from here in april to hear yup today that you see any drops like that in here. I'll see no draw near fifty percent drop seen a fifty percent drops in there. There's a big drop. Here's a big drop from one hundred to ninety at ten percent drop. Here's a big drop. One thirteen to ninety three still not percents route. So you know what's interesting is like we know that mining manufacturers are largely in china. Look at triangle. Look at the triangle's. But i mean is what i mean to say. China must have a lot of bitcoin. Just inherently i would think china. The companies that were mining in china. You don't think they like you know mike. China's had had crackdown story. Yeah i mean. I think that's kind of like you'll take. You'll think they take the bitcoin. I can't make dennis on this. Is this occurred the. Us takes barwick auctions. The bitcoin do yeah when he sees it. We keep the. Us government has in bitcoin. You we don't know how much china has. Cpi takes a cutter. Every business says alicia and ccp means the china china people and they always god of sorry. We gotta this. We got so long story short looking at the hash rates. Always a good thing. It's makes me a little nervous for the first time ever since i've been studying in this space consumed with it. The rate is dropping that fucking sharply. That is a massive asri decrease. It is miles right. If everybody out there is like opium is gonna flip in. there's so many Nya no. Bitcoin is running the roost. In bitcoin is going to be running for quite some time. We came close to the flipping. We don't uh win. How does remember. Remember twenty seventeen caps of ethan bitcoin. They flipped. Remember.