17 Burst results for "Eric Friedman"

"eric friedman" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

03:29 min | Last week

"eric friedman" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"While the S&P 500 is on the verge of a bare market that's when the index drops at least 20% from its recent high The big driver of falling stocks is inflation and now fears of a recession We spoke earlier with NPR's David gura The latest treat of the consumer price index showed inflation slowing down a tad but the bottom line is prices are still rising faster than we've seen in decades And what Wall Street wanted was to see a stronger sign inflation had peaked The problem is these prices are not slowing down fast enough which of course you know if you've shopped for groceries recently about an airline ticket and that's fueling fears the Federal Reserve will have to hike interest rates more aggressively Now this is scary because one borrowing costs are going to rise mortgage rates are already higher And two there's a real risk this could send the economy into a deep downturn On Thursday the Senate confirmed Jerome Powell to a second term as fed chair and he starts that term Steve at a time when investors are really unsure the fed will be able to raise rates without sparking a recession Does that explain why the numbers are down on the markets Yeah even market veterans have been taken back by the volatility We've seen the Dow gain more than a thousand points one day and lose more than a thousand points the next And then there's fear You can see it in a volatility index called the vix also known as the fear index It's now almost double what it was at the beginning of the year We're waiting for is to see if the medicine that the fed has started to administer is working It's done two rate hikes and the fed signal that's likely to do two more of half a percentage point each at its next two meetings We're not going to know if it's working right away We're in this period when Wall Street also has to wait to see if the fed is going to do anything unexpected It's next meeting is not until June 14th which feels like an eternity here Eric Friedman is the chief investment officer of U.S. banks asset management group We have a month plus of what's called a paucity of conversations definitive conversations and decisions from fed but perhaps more chatter Friedman says markets will react to that chatter to speeches from fed officials and to each new piece of economic data so Steve that volatility is not going to go away anytime soon Can you put market declines in context here How bad is it Well we've got some pretty incredible gains to these new lows I mean remember the S&P 500 hit a record high in January So this is a pretty big drop It would also makes this downturn different is the fed has not aggressively raised interest rates like this in years And both stocks and bonds are selling off simultaneously That is usually not what happens U.S. treasuries are seen as safe havens and investors turn to them in times of turmoil Eric Friedman says we haven't seen this happen in a calendar year in at least 46 years I'll add the crypto is also getting crushed Bitcoin down about 35% since the start of the year Let's talk about another source of volatility here Elon Musk who is planning to buy Twitter or says he is but now says the deal is on hold what's going on Well this morning he tweeted that the deal is on pause because he wants to make sure spam and fake accounts make up less than 5% of Twitter's users That's what Twitter claims and the reason this matters is fake accounts are not going to bring an advertising dollars and that is Twitter's primary source of revenue This could also be a way for Musk to get out of the deal or at least think twice about it He's pledged a significant amount of his personal fortune to be able to make the deal and Twitter the company that has struggled to make a profit Of course Elon Musk is known to be unpredictable and prone to changing his mind about things Steve in a subsequent statement a subsequent tweet he says he is still committed to the acquisition I know that NPR's David gura will be telling us about the next twist in turn David thanks so much You got.

fed David gura Eric Friedman Jerome Powell U.S. banks asset management gr NPR Steve S Senate Twitter Friedman Elon Musk Bitcoin U.S. Musk David
"eric friedman" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM

WABE 90.1 FM

02:06 min | 5 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM

"Should become the lifeline when we need help for mental crisis In fact many people still call 9-1-1 when they're in a mental health crisis and the hope is that those individuals will switch to dialing 9 8 8 when the number goes live So I said this is more than a quarter $1 billion Is that enough money to meet the need So mental health advocates that I spoke to are the see this really as a very important step towards fixing our mental health crisis response system but it's not enough Here's Laurel Stein She's the senior vice president of public policy at the American foundation for suicide prevention There is a lot more that needs to be done This is just a single piece of the pie in a large pizza pie if you say of the work that needs to be done And Stein and other advocates say that many people who call the lifeline need to be connected to care in their communities And so the federal government states and communities need to really invest in things like mobile crisis units and outpatient inpatient and residential care options so that people can be connected to the right level of care in a timely manner That is NPR's Richard strategy Thank you very much Thank you Ari And when you know is in crisis you can call or text the current national suicide prevention lifeline That number is one 800 two 7 three 8 two 5 5 Fears about the omikron variant hit Wall Street hard on Monday The Dow closed down 433 points or 1.2% continuing a global sell off As NPR's David guru reports investors are on edge about how this new variant will affect the global economy The Netherlands imposed a nationwide lockdown the World Economic Forum postponed its annual gathering of executives and heads of state in Davos Switzerland and stocks fell worldwide Countries and organizations are reacting to how fast this COVID variant is spreading and that's weighing on investors Eric Friedman is the chief investment officer in the asset management group at U.S. bank The.

Laurel Stein American foundation for suicid NPR Stein David guru federal government Ari Richard World Economic Forum The Netherlands Davos Switzerland Eric Friedman U.S. bank
"eric friedman" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

03:44 min | 8 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

"Covert the delta variant in any new variants could cause consumers to pull back business to slow. I'm out in the road on business. Travel in their pointer half full. The hotels are full job. Growth has already slowed says heidi sheer holtz at the economic policy institute. We added over seven hundred thousand jobs a month for six months in a row earlier this year but then delta hit and we added only about a third that amount in august then. there's global supply. Chains disrupted by covert outbreaks. Driving up prices. There are increasing troubles in china's real estate market. But eric friedman at us. Bank asset management isn't too concerned. We're gonna anticipating a significant contagion effect from the issues in china. Right now they have a significant set of reserves to allay some of these concerns closer to home. A political risk is looming says. Joseph bruce willis if congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling and the us defaults that's a politically induced artificial crisis. There is a cost. you'll see equity selloff. you'll see consumer in corporate confidence. Erode russillo says this is right at the top of the fence. Worries about the recovery going forward. I'm mitchell hartman for marketplace. We're talking a little bit yesterday about the fed has mitchell was talking about giving every son. Then it's gonna start slowly ever so slowly easing up. On some of the support it has been giving this economy tapering as we explained. Its bond buying program. Perhaps as soon as next month and then maybe fog as well nudging interest rates up as always the pandemic and our response to it plays a big role here but this is the start of the process. Lots of economists and businesses and investors have been watching and waiting for and forecasting around marketplace's. Kimberly adams has today's story in genre that we have come to call what happens now. Not much really changed yesterday but fed chair jerome. Powell laid out a clear picture of what the change when it comes is going to look like. Jamie cox is managing partner of harris financial group in richmond virginia. Yesterday i think the federal reserve did a very good job of setting a boundary between what taper meant and what liftoff will mean the conditions necessary for winding down support compared to the more stringent conditions for actually raising interest rates. So for now consumers may only notice slight changes in say the housing market says daryl fairweather chief economist at red fin the window for which mortgage rates are moses narrowing and could be over quite soon and a short term that can actually encourage remarkable divide home or to speed up their home search if all goes according to the feds plan and the economy continues to stabilize eventually interest rates for things like credit cards personal loans could start moving up to however says jack klein hens chief economist for the national retail federation tarzana where the economy or what. The economy will look like in the middle of next year and whether or not the pandemic is contained so while the fed has laid out the path that could get us to higher interest. Rates kleine henne says it starting with baby steps in washington. I'm kimberly adams for marketplace man. There were a whole lot of what ifs in the last four minutes. This radio program Wall street today traders. Were looking to buy. But also we'll tell you about bonds interesting news there as usual.

heidi sheer holtz eric friedman Joseph bruce willis russillo mitchell hartman economic policy institute china Kimberly adams fed Jamie cox harris financial group daryl fairweather red fin Travel mitchell congress jerome Powell jack klein hens richmond
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:40 min | 9 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Oil and iron or similarly gained on improving sentiment. Eric Friedman U S Bank wealth management C. I. O tells Bloomberg, he will be watching Jackson Hole and the Fed closely No what the Fed may actually more quickly. We don't think the Fed's going to act before us fought in November, December on papering We just think you need more information as we delve into the September October jobs numbers, but again that optionality may come quicker if we see both supply and demand my concerns in effect. Has checked the markets. The S and P is currently up 1/10 of a percent of six. The Dow's up 1/10 of a percent of 52, the NASDAQ 4/10 of a percent of 54. The tenure is down 10 30 seconds with the yield of 1.28% West Texas Intermediate crude is up 2.9% of 67 53 a barrel while Comex gold little changed at 18. Oh 7 30 an ounce The dollar Yan 1973 the euro dollar 17 44 in the British pound $2.37 17 stocks as far as Citigroup is concerned, is facing a lawsuit for pulling support from the European Credit Fund as the covid 19 pandemic royal markets. Then giving its own traders potential profit at the fund's expense. New York based bank was sued Viber Capital Partners in London for forcing the fund to default on a $224 million loan in March. That's the Bloomberg business Flash. Balance of power continues on Bloomberg Radio. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. I'm David Weston and we have some sad news to report and now.

David Weston Eric Friedman Viber Capital Partners March 1.28% $2.37 $224 million London U S Bank New York Citigroup Bloomberg Bloomberg Television 2.9% 18 10 30 seconds September October 1/10 Fed 67
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:01 min | 9 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Miller on Bloomberg Radio. Good Tuesday morning from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio in New York City and points beyond to our worldwide audience, Jackson Hole taking place Thursday and Friday of this week, We'll get a preview with Ira Jersey chief U. S interest rate strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence, Plus Matt Haugen, chief investment officer for bit wise. We're going to talk a little crypto because Matt loves to talk about crypto. But first, let's go to great Jared Bloomberg News for a Bloomberg business Flesh got a hot headline already fall US July new home sales at 708,000 annualized rate. The estimate was for 697. Meanwhile, stocks are up as investors are waiting for insights into the Fed's policy path amid lingering concerns about the threat of covid 19 to the global economy. Speaking of which, Eric Friedman, U. S Bank Wealth management CEO tells Bloomberg he'll be watching the Fed and Jackson Hole very closely What the Fed may actually act more quickly. We don't think the Fed is going to act before Let's call in November, December on tapering We just think that the more information as we delve into the September October jobs numbers, but again, the optionality make them quicker. If we see both supply and demands by concerns from the fact has checked the numbers, the S and P is up 1/10 of a percent up seven. The Dow is up just about 2/10 of a percent of 56, the NASDAQ's up 3/10 of a percent of 42. The 10 year is down by 5 30 seconds. The yield is 1.27% West Texas Intermediate Crude is up 2% at 66 94 barrel with Comex gold up 2/10 of a percent 18. Oh 9 60 an ounce The dollar yen 109 57 the euro dollar 17 51, the British found a dollar 37 22 Best buy rose the most in 13 months after it raised its full year sales outlook on Continued strong demand for its gadgets and services. Best spies up six and a quarter percent. That's a Bloomberg business flags. Bloomberg markets is underway with Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller. Gregg, Jerry. Thank you.

Matt Miller Paul Sweeney Eric Friedman New York City 1.27% Fed Matt Bloomberg Intelligence 708,000 697 Matt Haugen Thursday Friday Bloomberg November, December Gregg U. S Bank Wealth 10 year 2% Miller
"eric friedman" Discussed on Mac OS Ken

Mac OS Ken

07:06 min | 9 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Mac OS Ken

"Can you know how iphone sales dry up ahead of the next iphones release. Apparently not this year apple insider as how to look at a note from j. p. morgan analyst samir chatterjee. He has had a look at a recent wave seven report and they see no drop an iphone sales. According to chatterjee overall iphone share did not fall in july as the company sidestep typical seasonality ahead of a september iphone launch led by the ongoing resilience of the iphone twelve in combination with inventory issues. I samsung. I will make you switchers of men. Say at the jesus phone. This whole thing is really kind of mind blowing. Iphone sales tend to drop ahead of the next iphone released because people who know no people who don't know just go out and buy a phone when it's time to buy a phone but some phones are harder to get than others right now which is to say some desirable android. Phones were in short supply while apple soup to nuts. Acumen has got enough iphones around to satisfy demand quoting up insider android companies like samsung currently saying inventory issues due to shortages of chips and other critical components while the issues are also affecting apple. The company supplies still remains decent. The wave seven report indicates chatterjee has a buy rating on apple shares as price target on the shares. As one hundred eighty dollars wave seven by the way is calling for an iphone. Thirteen event on wednesday the fifteenth of september with preorder starting on the seventeenth. That would put the phone in hands purses and pockets on the twenty fourth of september. Heard something similar somewhere recently. Darned if i can remember where pay look another one of those things. We knew our would have if we'd been paying attention. Ben lovejoy at nine to five mac says apple has confirmed to him that it scans. I cloud mail for child sexual abuse or see sam and has done since twenty nineteen. The story is a tiny bit hard to follow though. You have heard the important part eric. Friedman apples anti-fraud chief said recently that apple was the greatest platform for distributing child. Porn text is such a weird thing. One assumes he meant the biggest not the best. Here's what got love joys attention if apple has not scanning i cloud for c. sam already how could friedman no that actually sounds like he doesn't know that but maybe making an educated guess still love joy only found not out by quizzing apple and getting a response. According lovejoy apple confirmed to me that it has been scanning outgoing and incoming. I cloud mail for see sam images. Since two thousand nineteen email is not encrypted so scanning attachments as male passes through apple servers would be a trivial task apple also indicated that it was doing some limited scanning of other data but would not tell me me being lovejoy but would not tell me what that was except to suggest that it was on a tiny scale. It did tell me that the other data does not include. I cloud backups. No i said that this was a thing we would have known. If we'd been paying attention love joys piece points to two past quotes. I and archived page of an apple child. Protection paid. Says apple uses image matching technology to help find and report child exploitation much like spam filters in email systems use electronic signatures to find suspected child exploitation. We validate each match with individual review. Then there was a statement from apple's cheap privacy person in january of twenty twenty nine to five mac quotes a piece from the telegraph of the u. k. Which said jane horvath. Apple's chief privacy offer set at attack conference at the company uses screening technology to look for illegal images. The company says it disables accounts. If apple finds evidence of child exploitation material though it does not specify how a discovers it. Well he see the kind of trouble they stirred when they did specify also and all of our defense. We've had a lot of stuff on our minds. Tension between some apple. Employees and management may be ratcheting up apple insider highlights report on the verge saying around fifteen current and former apple employees. Were directly involved in organizing. Effort called hashtag apple two. That's t oh you know like hashtag me too but with apple. The peace as the organization's goal is to expose patterns of racism sexism and equity and abuse within the company. The group says they've gone public having exhausted all internal avenues. We've talked with our leadership. We've gone to the people team. We've escalated through business conduct. Nothing has changed the sightless protections and rights afforded to workers by us law and also provides links to the national labor relations board the us equal employment opportunity commission california's department of fair employment and housing the international labor organization and the twitter account for at apple laborers. It's unclear what the organization's plan the as except the gather stories from employees craft the statement presumably demands or desired change and collaborate to iterating a healthier workplace. You can read the full statement on the website apple to dot. Us joining apple's maps team as easy as picking up your phone in the same way that joining the production of american idol. As easy as picking up your phone. Macrumors says apple's expanding on the native apple maps review functionality that i introduced an ios fourteen according to the peace and the apple maps and ios fourteen and ios fifteen us users can now see an option to provide a thumbs up or thumbs down for most locations tapping on the thumbs up or down. Icon brings up a secondary interface. Providing thumbs up and thumbs down ratings for various categories like products customer service food atmosphere and more based on the location being reviewed. You can also upload pictures of the place and the stuff it sells the apple maps ratings. Do not replace the yelp ratings and apple maps..

apple samir chatterjee Ben lovejoy sam samsung chatterjee jane horvath morgan mac Friedman lovejoy friedman eric us equal employment opportunit national labor relations board Macrumors us twitter yelp
"eric friedman" Discussed on The Vergecast

The Vergecast

01:34 min | 11 months ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on The Vergecast

"Is complaining about big tech censorship. But no one is doing anything about it. They say. build your phone. So i did so dealer. You've a lot of people treated you. A bunch of people tweeted at me. This is the second or third time. The freedom phone has been announced. What is the freedom phone. It is a android phone running. Probably a guest. Some version of lineage. Oh s that's basically just an she phone and It's a spitting image of and we did g nine. According to animation as key i think not looks about right and it is It has a app store that cannot be censored apparently and it has some preloaded apps on it and it runs free. Whatever that is freedom phone truly is the best phone in the world it. Does everything your current phone dots except censor you and spy on you with the freedom phone. Your freedom of speech is our number one priority all of which is to say It's a graft. It is a way for Eric friedman who is selling this thing to Squeeze much of money out of people who are mad and think that buying An android phone that claims that it is tree. is way of solve that that anger. It's a gift. Don't don't buy it so again. This is the third time this thing has been announced. We have passed on every time. We're going to try to get one. I think it's important but air. There's a video you can go watch it this guy. He's like hi. i'm the world's youngest. Bitcoin millionaire which to me is a signal. The i should stop watching video. Keep watching the video. And he's like we gotta stop.

Eric friedman app store
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:26 min | 1 year ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"New York futures Breaking down on the S and P 500 Tom Kane down 25. And things get in rail in Europe with the European equity market in the banks, specifically, Tom experiencing some pain for those of you just waking up. You've got an advantage over those waking up two hours ago. It has been a snooze Friday and that has ended in the last 40 minutes. John with his future roll over the chart on European banking. John is a kind of outside shock. We're you know, we're not talking about it now. It's not in the zeitgeist, but it is one of the worst charts of the world and John with the stocks bank index hitting a record low. You just wonder where that folds into the system. Hey, Tom. There's a line that I remember from the former East Sea presidente Mario Draghi when he turned around and said rights have to be low now to be higher in the future. It was 2014. They just went negative. They're still there. And that's the outlook for these financials. Were we generate an economic recovery in the continent that actually leads the higher interest rates. Tell me right now is no. Not anytime soon. Bring up the chart again on Bloomberg Radio on Bloomberg Television. I'll get it out on Twitter for Bloomberg radio. It's really inelegant chart. And this is the thing that Eric Friedman, a U. S bank was talk. What about John Farrell? It's the X axis of all this. Whether it's a pandemic back now, pushing nine months whether whether it's the European bank Malays pushing back 12 years, even 14 years, it's it's it's the duration. Of these agonies that well that we have to focus on Just never recovered. Never recovered. 2012 Europe down more than 40% this week, Tom, the Ecklie benchmark in Frankfurt, Germany. We started this week and I said the happy talk in Europe ended today. That was Monday morning. The DAX Since then, we're down almost 6% points this week alone, Worst week since June 2020 to me its economy. Intercourse with young hotsy is coming on. I think it'll be interesting or the mark down at Goldman Sachs. Going into Q For how do you measure queue for starting next week? How do you measure in the next year with the mystery of what's going on in Washington? Hey, Tom. We're talking about the equity market lease program is we've got to talk about credit. You and I've been saying credit really resilient in the face of attack route in the previous three weeks this week, we had a change later. I think we've had about 40 basis points of spread, widening on high yield. Just some cracks Emerging. Yeah, we've seen some really big outflows from junk bond funds, in particular, the biggest Ohio bonding TF saw $3 billion withdrawn, which is the most Since the February turmoil, raising a question on John about what this signals ahead is it's just sort of the froth getting taken off the top. Or does this indicate that there has been a material shift in the economic outlook based on the fact that we don't have another foot of fiscal support in the offing, and we are getting a resurgence in virus cases, John What are you getting in the Treasury market a bit with a move lower of just a single basis point on a 10 year year. Isn't that a story? Lisa is not much of one in the sulfur in debt market right now. Yeah, and we're looking at the data to try to understand what the next leg will be in terms of both bond deals as well as economic recovery. 8:30 A.m.. Today we're going to be getting the August durable goods orders that will give a reed On business confidence how much they expect future orders an activity to pick up particularly for aircraft and other types of big investments. One PM the baker Hughes US recount In some ways, this is a gauge of mobility, whether rigs will come back online and anticipation of people going more places where the resurgence and virus will push more rigs back into in activity, and today. New York Fed President William speaking, including to a group of younger people in Rochester, about the prospects for them entering the labor market, John at this incredibly tenuous time. This to me is one of the most untold stories of this entire recession, which is if you're a college graduate. If you're graduating from high school, what is your prospects, given the fact that entry level jobs? Have largely been eradicated from a lot of the sectors that were traditional hirers of these new graduates. Couldn't agree more. We'll catch up the economics team at Goldman a little bit later in the next couple of hours on this program, Let's get straight to the price action. Things picking up if you wanted a quiet enter the tried and waking up getting one this morning equities breaking down on the S and P 500 we head towards 1/4 straight week of losses down 25 on the S and P futures. Negative 8/10 of 1% in the bond market yields guess what? We do nothing We come in a single basis. 0.0 Point 65% and in foreign exchange story the way it really hate Tom. Stronger dollar Strongest. Wait for the U. S dollar going away back to spring your O'Donnell 1 16 33 Remember 1 20 wasn't so long ago No where near it. Now we're down a third of 1% on that currency Patton dollars strength in the last hour. It also no Swiss. Franco's weaker is well, euro. Swiss. He's a wanna wait handle, which is really profound after the one of 7171 or seven That we've seen John. I do want to point out Turkey got their act together and stunned experts with a substantial interest rate increase yesterday. So Turkish Lira finally stronger. Let's get a conversation started with everyone's Silverman, Obviously capital Markets Equity derivatives strategist joins us right now, Amy, Fantastic Catch up with you. This market not seem concerned about October or November. Very preoccupied with December Why, Amy? Hey, guys. Good morning. Yeah, I mean, December seems to be the focus. You know, Part of it is there is this December 14th deadline when the state electors are supposed to submit their ballots, And obviously the conversation has gone on for quite a while that we're goingto have a contested election election where logistics of mechanics. Matter a lot. You know, one new once I would point to is, this is very true for S and P and fix which has been pricing Ah, higher for longer elevated voluntarily. This is not true in NASDAQ, and it's not true. And Russell. The options term structure that we look at is actually lower, the somber than in November. It's flipped in S and P in Vicks. And so I I actually think that's pretty interesting. Because the market has been so so much driven by this, you know, Tech versus value trade that that is not being reflected in those embassies. Amy what portion of this pull back? His correction is simply due to abet on weaker economic growth. Does that play in big or is it just another small factor? You know, I think that definitely, you know, we sort of saw the market react to some of the data that came out as well as house comments If I put out a third layer to that There have obviously been substantial option dynamics at play ever since August even earlier, you know, referring to the Softbank trades as well as the retail option by So you know, the third factor that I see in play is also that there is this auction sign attic. We refer to as gamma where you know it slices both ways. We saw that exacerbate the move off. And we are seeing an exacerbate the move down in, you know, look in mainly tech names. But as goes text, as goes the market because of the heavy waiting that it has had in the market. In recent times. You talk about Tech and you talk about how 2020 volatilities has largely been focused on what you call the Fang. A man stocks. I call them the fan of Mag Stocks. Pick your poison. How much risk is there, too big tech?.

John Farrell Tom Kane Europe Goldman Sachs New York Bloomberg Radio Mario Draghi Eric Friedman Softbank Twitter Treasury Mag Stocks Vicks hotsy Amy Turkey Frankfurt Ohio
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:28 min | 1 year ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In a summer of July. It is news packed interesting things on politics and international relations. And, of course, all of it devolving onto the markets. The operative word this morning a stimulus and John Farrell it is stimulus in Europe announcement shortly and presume stimulus meetings in Washington in Europe. It's about signal not size, Tom the right signals coming out of the weekend, then making progress that maid again. At 4 p.m. Local time. That's 10 a.m. Eastern time in the United States. It's about size. Let's be clear about that. There is a $2 trillion spread between Democrats and Republicans as Congress returns to work down in Washington. $2 trillion. Tom, not small change. Lisa, What do you see? In the bond market devolves out to a four trillion I've even seen word of a $5 trillion deficit. There's the immediacy. We just heard from Mohamed El Arian and from the others as well. I mean, what is the bond market look like into the end of the year? Jon nailed it. It's wide open, basically is saying we will give you money at the lowest borrowing costs on record to borrow money. And you see that for the U. S government. You see that also for U S corporations right now, Tom. Get this. The cost for investment grade companies to borrow. The United States is below 2%. This's all in borrowing costs that is government type level, and we're talking about a time with rising to faults. This looks to the shocks of the weekend. The todd speed Lister Lester, whatever it's called. It's just trounced him. There's your name so you can make it doesn't know what he's talking about. Enjoy more of that game tonight, Okay, but John what? We also saw the reappearance of the real yield on Bloomberg Television. We look from Or that coming up, John. A lot of this seriously, is the dynamic of the inflation adjusted yield. It's just not there. Oh, ye Olde might be back on television in some form, Tom. But there is no real yard in this bond market in the Treasury exactly be negative inflation expectations have picked up on the Federal Reserve. Tom is going to a new face and they're about to codify that faces well, the new approach they're about to tolerate higher inflation. That does not mean that inflation is going to pick up just because they say they will tolerate it, But that's the message coming out of the Fed. Have a formalized and forward guidance is going to be the key in the next compliment. Six and that secures nicely over John to our guest this morning. Eric Friedman joins us US Bank Wealth management Chief investment officer Eric You know we can go right over on our mystery of the real yield the mystery of the risk adjusted rate. In tow. How we're calibrating the equity market Given all these stories were talking about you go back to something a bit. Ah, the Gordon Dividend discount model. Come on, Eric, does that math work in this tumult? Tom. We think it does work. And ironically, this is an environment whereas that really you'll continues to drift lower. The thing that we have asked Allocators and asset managers have to think about is what should you own. So if expectations start, Tio consistently had lower We want to own more stop so owning things like diversified, uh, interest streams where that's from from dividend generating Cos whether that's from real estate. Those are things that we think we have the own for Klein's Tio continue to keep up with Shrinking your environment. If we're gonna have lower rodeo to negative role yours, Eric is a signal to buy growth equities if growth and the price of growth is going to be at a premium, isn't that what we have to be positioned for? Jonathan, I think you do, and part of it is just at what cost. Of course, it is a consistent questions. So what we decided to do last week was actually to rotate a bit away from large cap domestic growth and into Mohr. Let's call it mid cap, small cap equities, not a full position rotation out of growth. Because we still think that scarce growth value is really important things usually to horizons. We have to think about Horizon. One is what is a recovery looked like before the vaccine and then horizon to is what his life look like. Post vaccine, however long that may be, so we think either scenario scarce growth will work. But in a scenario where you have a big run up in those growth equity is that just can't go on perpetually. That's why we took some off the table, but still think there's there's a reason to hold on to it for either horizon right now, Eric, how much conviction do you have going into small caps right now, given the fact that default rates are increasing, given the fact that the U. S economic recovery is slowing and given the uncertainty in terms of what the policy makes will actually be The least You always do a great job on the credit side, especially looking at implied the fault rates and that is one way I wouldn't say we have massive conviction. But we do think that you have to have some position. There's some footing there. And if you look at them equity market dynamics, especially right now, one of the key things will be what leadership resumption. Do we see last week? I know it's a very short term, but last Monday Tech really had a really man outside day where you saw rotation away and market still held up. And if you look at what held up that were things like auto companies, capital goods materials, really economically sensitive stuff. So what that tells us is that while The perspective, growth rates are probably come down a little bit that as we get toward that second arrives in a post vaccine world, there is some value to be found in some of the smaller companies, but to your point If we do see default rates pick up if we do see some shop, especially in back to school, which your team did a great job of covering earlier today. That is a case where we could be wrong. But again, we're going to take that. At least in a partial basis and have a little more pro growth mentality, especially with small and mid cab company. Eric is amazing that many people are still reflecting on the price action of last Monday, literally a week ago. This world is moving so quickly yet. Still, that moment sticks with us that huge reversal protect Monday and the weakness that persisted through the week for big names like Microsoft Amazon Down every single day last week, Monday to Friday, What was the signal you took from the Eric? I think the biggest thing Jonathan was at the market still hung in there, and I don't see that with a glass half full or just a Pollyannish viewpoint. But if you do look at an environment well, let's say that happened Ah, month and 1/2 or two months ago. That would have been probably a down 57% type of Dave. I'm sorry week for for broad US equities. But the fact that we were actually flattish with a lot of tech leadership rolling over that, at least, is an incremental positive. I think that the next two weeks will be really, really important, especially as we get closer to Back to school phenomenon because the state local response is one that we just have to pay really close attention to a lot of schools both domestically as well as abroad are still playing it somewhat by year based on how the data looks like so the fact that we saw really a road a rotation out of technology and yet We did see the equity markets hanging. There is at least for us a good sign. But worsening covert data we think could reverse that. So this will be an important next couple of weeks. You bringing me to speeches is here. You're way way too optimistic. The vast majority of the interviews were doing are of caution, measured caution and outright doom and gloom. What do they get wrong? I think, Tom that basically our viewpoint is that over time, and I mean to say that we were talking about weeks time talking to a longer term time horizon that risk premium works that if you are patient, you will be rewarded for the risk that you take, and we have to keep in mind that there is still a tremendous quote unquote. Catch up trade That has not happened yet. But when I take ketchup trade, I mean Europe, Small caps mid caps. Think about some of the really bombed out sectors. Yes, they've had a nice bounce since the March 23rd lows. We're not even close to where we have been. Nor do we actually have the opportunity to see those companies even consolidate. There's some consolidation on the tape this morning. So bottom line is that why we think there is reason for some measured caution. We also have to remember that a lot of this stuff has been discounted already. So that leaves us with more of a glass half full mentality. But of course, we have to be responsive. We have to be mindful of some of these. He's risked it again. We and others don't have a great edges over even if the path towards a vaccine is an important path, But it's one that most of the market will be priced takers on its opposed to having great oppressions. Or when it will actually arrived. Eric the lack of really yield driving people into risk assets despite some of the bleaker economic data, also driving investors into gold, reaching the highest levels in six years, with Citigroup coming out and saying, it's on ly a matter of time before it hits a new record high..

Tom Eric United States John Farrell Europe Jonathan Eric Friedman Federal Reserve Washington Eric You Congress Mohamed El Arian Treasury Tio Lister Lester Bloomberg Television Lisa Jon Citigroup
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:16 min | 2 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"500 is higher at the open up 1/4 percent or seven points at 31 77. DowJones industrial average little changed up 5 to 26,068 the NASDAQ's up 7/10 percent, or 69 points, at 10,561. 10 year Treasury up 3 30 seconds. He'll 300.65%. They yield on the two year 20.15%. Nymex crude oil's down 7/10 percent, or 29 cents, a $40.62 a barrel, called makes gold little change in 18 21 announced the euro 1.1344 against the dollar. The yen 107.23 Tom and Paul Thanks so much greatly appreciate that, Karen right now, What we're gonna do is look at the equity markets and there's lots to talk about before that. We want to talk to Eric Friedman of U. S bank about the reality that we're all facing. We've had a huge theme here. I really give Lisa Brahmins great credit for this of over the last 23 or four weeks trying to get out front Of this school story. There's any number of shades to this Paul from nursery school and kindergarten on through. Eric Friedman has Children of stunning accomplishment. They are the kind of kids where You go, really? Because he has not won playing major school sports. He has two playing major schools sports, and we'll keep it. You know, schools and all that out of it, Eric. How's that going? I mean, there's there's going to be like no sports. Get Tom Paul greets me with this morning. Thanks for those kind words about my about my kids. It's a challenge, I think again are our concerns are our little in the face of what others are facing a pandemic, but It is. It's a big concern for us, obviously his parents but but also as investors because the The will Tio. Let's see. Reverse a full steam ahead type of approach Tio getting back to the workplace getting back to school. Back, especially in light of an election coming up that that could be material issues. So we're actually concerned from investment perspective about what could be a really sloppy coming weeks if you will, so it's certainly a It's an issue that people are aware of. But Will be upon us pretty quickly. I mean, you give us great insight on this, Eric and I think of Jeff for you over being one melon who had a great great idea. Today. I'm taking the concept of the multiplier across the GDP equation. And literally bringing it over is a labor multiplier wrapped around this terrible pandemic, And it's if you know one person's laid off somewhere three or four or five other people are directly affected. How do you fold that idea? Into your equity market analysis. It is a very multiplication ve analysis Tom and you hit it on earlier segment that as the foot traffic flows as there's more of a delay, if you will Between now and the other side of covert 19 That just makes our our time horizon Mohr more concerning again. We're not anticipating a A vaccine out that we have any edge as to when production may start, but that is probably a second half of next year phenomenon. So the thing that of course we and every other every other investors focused on is what is that bridge look like? And if that bridge needs to extend even further If it needs to involve additional stimulus of need to involve additional help to the labor market that is actually not price in the markets and again if we see a sloppy and tough returned to work, return a school environment We think there is some potential downside ahead. All right. So given Eric that there might be some potential downside ahead as we try to re open a sufficiently is possible. What's an investor to do here? Do I go, so I stayed defensive, so I get more defensive Oy. To stick with the six stocks that Tom's readyto Jump into the market and buy right now the Amazons Facebook's What do we do? Paul. The first thing that we've done in fact we did this yesterday is that we trimmed some of those winners and specifically looking at large cap technology in the U. S. We think that scares growth remains. They seem. Investors will pay for what we do You think it's time to take some degree of profits on that on that on that particular trade, so specifically, what we've thought about is really trimming. Large cap technology investing a bit more into US small cap. We're still bullish on US large cap versus international, specifically an international developed. So think Europe in Japan. The emerging market story is really running to its own drum right now, obviously lots of of headlines. Stimulus in China whether that's new stories or Currency movements, so we're more neutral on international emerging, but we do think it's time to start trimming some of those large cap gains, not accident completely. But A good time to re balance here. So you know, As an investor, we would not be whole hog into the further right part of the risk curve. We still think that owning especially in fixed income, full faith and credit bonds, which is a phrase I'd borrow from Mr Keane quite often. That's a great place to be so owning long duration Treasury zoning, high quality corporate over high yield. We still think makes sense. Take your risks in the equity market, as opposed to in the bond market. That's really the way that we're positioning clients right now. So in the bond market, what's your view of credit quality right now? Are you starting to see some cracks in that because we may be a little bit early on that, But just One of what your thoughts are Paul. There's really a wall of maturity ease that will be playing out over the next 6 to 9 months specifically in the energy market. And if you look at the marginal Ah piece of credit, especially in high yield. It's typically tied to the energy complex in some way, shape or form, not every credit, but what's called by the court of the indexes, So our viewpoint is that the fault rates are probably implied the fault rich a little bit too low, meaning people are Factoring a more rosy outlook than we think is appropriate so that that for us from a high yield perspective leads us to again be Ah, little more interested in high quality corporate not even see mortgages, things like that that have Cash flow and have cash flow value but aren't as far dependent if you will on this maturity schedules. So again. Our viewpoint is that in terms of the bond market specifically Places to really have capital or municipal fixed income, long duration Treasuries as well as high quality corporate. The high yield area certainly has some Carrie attached to it, but Again. World more concerned about implied the fault rates. We think it could be a little mess here than than what the market is predicting right now. The messiness of this comes at any number of shapes headline coming out. First gives color to the exogenous shocks can occur this Reuters The United States, rendering readying Federal contract band for companies using wall away, So they're Erica's is attention of China..

Tom Paul Eric Friedman US China Lisa Brahmins U. S Europe Karen Reuters Treasuries Carrie Mr Keane Mohr Jeff Erica
"eric friedman" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

01:39 min | 2 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Transformative youth and criminal justice reforms it's how I built this from NPR and guy rise so it's taken me a few weeks to get motivated about exercise this whole pandemic thing just had me in a state of anxiety and it messed with my routine but I was inspired to jump back into it about two weeks ago after watching my eleven year old proudly announces daily step count recorded on his fitness and fitness isn't all that important to them he's eleven but the game of occasion of fitness the idea that it could be fun to hit five thousand or ten thousand steps a day that's what matters this is the stroke of insight James park had soon after he stood in line at a Best Buy in San Francisco to by the brand new video game system called Nintendo Wii U. here James explained the story of it later but when he realised by playing the week is that you could actually change human behavior around exercise if you turned it into a game and thing is up until James park and is co founder Eric Friedman founded Fitbit in two thousand seven there really weren't any digital fitness trackers that were designed that way when I spoke to James park a few days ago he was in San Francisco living in an Airbnb I'm in a temporary Airbnb because my the place that I typically live in has been flooded out by malfunctioning washing machine I woke up at eight one AM and I just woke up to the sound of water gushing everywhere he's on top of sheltering in place and running his company remotely James had to move out of his apartment in the middle of the night and then set.

NPR James park San Francisco James Eric Friedman Airbnb co founder
"eric friedman" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

01:40 min | 2 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"To advancing transformative youth and criminal justice reforms it's how I built this from NPR and guy rise so it's taken me a few weeks to get motivated about exercise this whole pandemic thing just had me in a state of anxiety and it messed with my routine but I was inspired to jump back into it about two weeks ago after watching my eleven year old proudly announces daily step count recorded on his victim now fitness isn't all that important to them he's eleven but the game of occasion of fitness the idea that it could be fun to hit five thousand or ten thousand steps a day that's what matters this is the stroke of insight James park had soon after he stood in line at a Best Buy in San Francisco to by the brand new video game system called Nintendo Wii U. here James explained the story of it later but what do you realize by playing the week is that you could actually change human behavior around exercise if you turned it into a game and thing is up until James park and is co founder Eric Friedman founded Fitbit in two thousand seven there really weren't any digital fitness trackers that were designed that way when I spoke to James park a few days ago he was in San Francisco living in an Airbnb I'm in a temporary Airbnb because my the place that I typically live in has been flooded out by malfunctioning washing machine I woke up at eight one AM and I just woke up to the sound of water gushing everywhere he's on top of sheltering in place and running his company remotely James had to move out of his apartment in the middle of the night and then set up the microphone.

NPR James park San Francisco James Eric Friedman Airbnb co founder
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

10:43 min | 2 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Financial crises take a really long time to recover from finances on job markets pulling people back in for very long in a monetary union without a physical union is what we preach is extreme diversification it's hard to have sustained productivity without capitol wrestling rumors of a long sleeve Tom Kean and polls we Berg radio morning everyone and for offering a manifesto we're not sure what it's about AC Milan maybe her a top this football for you today which is lower the audience from twelve people down to the people of the lease of remorse here is nice having sort of an English football free morning Hey thank you for I will not it's not going to be a Disney world in terms of our singing choices very good well we're here with flat and we're getting into the holiday mode yields come in a little bit and I'm watching you and want to wait ninety nine it's been a stronger yen the last couple days some of you following bit coin got some emails on that under seven thousand right right now seventy one hundred a churning here it is a new lower level surveillance always watch back cone Resnick planning a transaction turn your tax strategy into a competitive advantage toward visit car Resnick's capital markets tests resource center they come resident dot com slash tax inside the lake moraine show it's the state of in from Saxon course now with master card on a Hamilton College and also up at lake marine is a small school cold cold and we welcome absolutely a gentleman out of Colgate Eric freedman chief investment officer he'll be out in the field hockey fields watching various offspring yeah do what they do that's what you wanna check yeah we can NEC is here and this is an important interview folks for people who are behind Eric Friedman with U. S. bank wealth management Eric you've got lots of people who demanded that you stay cautious with their portfolios and they're not up twenty five percent this year what is to do if I did not enjoy the big left John good morning thanks so much for having me on we do think you should stay involved here it has been in the in lots of of swings in terms of forward looks at the economy and yet the economy is doing it well corporate profits are are hanging in there so we still think that having more of the pro growth by in portfolios make sense you talk about field hockey in one of your issues out there a plane as we can before they choose a field hockey rules there's a whistle like every three seconds the little if they would blow the whistle like every every like thirty two seconds or whatever that's a kind of stock market we have this year but Eric that maze actually is there is a question here when you blow the whistle and all the optimism heading into twenty twenty given the fact that that is the consensus trade right now what's going to potentially unravel that Lisa this is really the stuff that did you do a great job reporting on it with with your credit background we think the first cracks in the foundation was shopping credit and it's just not there yet here is we're really focused on our commercial real estate you you mentioned earlier segment your you've got a piece on that coming up you also mentioned leverage loans and we also think that auto loans are places that are with the really bear watching but even with those three areas showing some caution flags going up we don't think it's enough to really offsets the move the other variable that when it's really come into play would be higher yields from the sovereign debt complex we're just not seeing that that materialized either so again we're not looking at this with our head in the sand saying look this will be an ongoing momentum phenomenon but we think we have to see some more credit for interest rate movements to to cause us to to ship that opinion response saying it yet if we're still constructive on the economy and the fed is on the sidelines how much how far out should I be going on the risk curve there in terms of equities my thinking about international equities in my thinking about emerging markets are right I stick with my large cap domestic I think all the the way that we position clients is the first and foremost have domestic equity is up from the large cap and also mid caps which did recently break out to new all time highs the lag that large caps for some time would really emphasize those two areas first we think that international developed in as you see on the first page of former today it is the pain trade for most equity investors here just because it's been so sluggish for so long and it keeps creaking creaking I'm sorry moving higher but the you know we think that it's still too early to be aggressive with an E. M. and we also because we to really be involved in here is like micro cap so I do see that you know out of ida B. T. eight ten if you will with ten being Max risk can answer being you know really on the sidelines we think of seven is probably the right posturing here again until we see a shift in credit fundamentals that we're just not seeing quite yet US equities versus European equities which you prefer we prefer you Estill Lisa think that the European data particularly the the issues in Germany remain concerning any and not concerning the point of being out of the space but we'd really emphasize being more overweight domestic mid in large and and being slightly overweight international but again emphasizing developed but not not at the expense of U. S. what I eat what would you characterize is probably the greatest risk to what I would characterize your fairly constructive outlook for equities here what's keeps you up at night is it just trade or there's some other things out there we think all the trade is really what we called Angelus phenomenon we're just price takers in the news flow there's really not a way to gain an edge on on what may happen so we are certainly concerned about it there are some things that were course gonna look at within the election is not much of an issue right here right now the biggest thing that we could see as as being a risk factor would be indiscriminate buying but we're just not seeing that yet so if you know if you compound corporate buy backs with retail saying you know what I want to step in here I've missed this move and institutional investors also being concerned that would be the biggest concern that we would have would be indiscriminate buying still too soon to see that but but again at some repeat close attention to even with this U. S. bank wealth management Eric what do you hear for your clients I one of my big failures is I am in the Bloomberg bubble I mean folks you have no idea how constrain my reality is Eric what people actually saying about the equity market is there a genuine enthusiasm some might say it's really more of a of a of a skeptical eyes saying how long can this last that's that's the first concern that we hear and the second big concern that we hear is just what what about my bond portfolio and I I understand as the here all the prognostications about low rates and low returns people of course are all getting older and they're saying really should I own the side the bonds for safety and as the equity market keeps running higher the concerns as as you mean relatively stable those are those are two things we are pretty concerns in girls and proxy for yield it is a reasonable party for you especially back to Lisa's comment on on international developed you've got a dividend yield of three and a half percent which is certainly attractive but you know the way that we look at about getting to all the technicalities time we look at the risk premium difference between what US equities are spitting offers a stretcher use and globally speaking equity risk premium are very very low relative to fixed income meeting and we think that they're still really attractive levels stocks reverses bonds but again that can get skewed you know who that indiscriminate buying so we still think that yield is a reasonable is a reasonable indicator and right now just given how low yields are for competing assets that drive is still too to be more involved in equities and fixed income so Eric earlier this morning time came is making fun of me as I was talking about how you worry and worry and worry and then you just get sick of worrying but I do feel like that kind of sums up people's calls for next year that basically things aren't so bad so why not buy risk so is that an accurate characterization given the fact there isn't a whole lot of enthusiasm right now either I think that is a fair characterization of the you know the the the issue that you have especially right now for investors is where else you gonna go again that that fear of missing out the no there there is no alternative all the acronyms that are out there in terms of job more bullish equity market positioning prognostications at some point again there is still the opportunity for diversification we still think that if you look at what time a call full faith and credit type of bonds they do exist and so pairing together some rest Pontryagin domestic equities international developed with the full faith and credit fix and can we still think this is a good environment to make money and it's a matter of just committing to that plan committing to doing it but of course getting people to just commit to it and doing it incrementally oftentimes is the best medicine that's with a tactic that we think it's been helpful for investors even those that have been missing out that's been at least our our coaching process with them good luck with the field hockey this thanksgiving day Mister Friedman is with US bank wealth management as well just got a message it enough for the Ohio Michigan state can you talk about the real game which is Detroit Lions Michael bar it is like mom dad pecan pie you know the whole thing is like Norman Rockwell the line's going to give us the goods on Thursday however as a pumpkin pie I I I think pumpkin on there really yeah definitely he can't he can't seem to use we anyway let's put it this way Val our backup quarterback is hurt so now there's a question if we need another quarterback so we asked Michael we're talking we're talking pumpkin pie we're more talking pie in the face you have the one hot dogs had the clean out of school and he was really ready for the holidays we hope you travel over the next number of days safely what's going on because fallout their record record travel this holiday futures up one this is Bloomberg national headlines right now.

Tom Kean twenty five percent thirty two seconds three seconds
"eric friedman" Discussed on WMAL 630AM

WMAL 630AM

04:07 min | 2 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on WMAL 630AM

"WMAL FM would which Washington while five point nine FM W. H. Q. Washington comes to talk special report how some peach an inquiry to witnesses requested by Republicans in the public impeachment hearings are testifying right now on Capitol Hill Kurt Volcker the former US envoy to Ukraine rejected as a conspiracy theory pushed by president trump's attorney Rudy guiliani the former vice president Joe Biden should be investigated for allegedly greasing the skids for his son to do business in Ukraine I think the crew the allegations against vice president Biden or self serving and and not credible former national security aide to Morrison likewise appear to reject the push by the president to investigate Joe Biden and other Democrats well you crane was in desperate need of US military eight Linda Kenya on Capitol Hill president trump says he is watch some of the testimony and called the impeachment investigation of disgrace and all nine witnesses are set to appear before house lawmakers during a series of hearings this week tomorrow US ambassador to the European Union Gordon silent will testify I'm in caves the national transportation safety board has determined what led to a woman's death on board a Southwest Airlines flight India's be says a fractured fan blade powering the Boeing seven thirty seven seven hundred damaged a fuse to launch in TSB senior investigator bill English the impact resulted in the window departing the airplane causing a rapidly pressurization of the cabin in the partially junction and fatal injury to the passenger in C. fourteen Hey the board said the crack would've been difficult to detect but issued two recommendations to Southwest Airlines and five to the FAA I'm quite novel a federal judge has ruled today that a partial ban on asylum does not apply to anyone who appeared at an official U. S. border crossing before the policy was announced in July the decision may affect thousands of migrants who followed US government procedures on Wall Street the Dow Jones industrial average fell one hundred two points the S. and P. down to the nasdaq gained twenty one I'm in case email news eight oh two of Ryan piers better wireless service could be coming to Montgomery County but not everyone's on board getting five G. in the county would require small cell in tennis to be built on telephone or light poles in residential areas current zoning law does not allow antennas closer than three hundred feet from homes there will be a public hearing tonight on a controversial proposal to change that law basically says that you antennas can be placed on utility poles or light poles not closer than thirty feet some residents say that's too close to home council member Hans Riemer there's a little bit of an inconvenience here maybe but what we get out of it I think it's pretty clear Curtis some WMAL and WMAL dot com if you've given money to people calling and asking you to donate to Montgomery County volunteer firefighters you may be the victim of a scam unfortunately today we cannot believe anything that caller ID says Eric Friedman with the county office of consumer protection says a political action committee called heroes United deceived you their telemarketing vendor engaged in caller ID spoofing to give the false impression that the donations would benefit Montgomery counties local volunteer fire fighter instead it mostly benefited the telemarketing firm the county is settled with the pack if you made a donation you'll be getting a refund John Matthews on WMAL and WMAL dot com and a specially equipped Boeing seven seventy seven jet took off from Dulles International Airport on Tuesday carrying a true Washington celebrity they pay a four year old giant panda visitors the washing nationals they'll have watched him grow up since day one but now he's headed to China under terms lose his agreement with the Chinese government any panda born here must be sent to China when they reach the age of four when he reaches sexual maturity after eight six may pay will be entered into China's government run breeding program seeking to expand the role of full panda population WMAL news time fatal form down double mail traffic.

Washington three hundred feet thirty feet four year five G
"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:16 min | 3 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The euro, one point one two seven nine against the dollar. The yen one. Oh, eight point four seven. Tom and Lisa. Karen, thanks so much. Lisa Abramowicz in Phoenix would be NY, melon and Tom Keene. New York, Bloomberg interactive brokers studios, we had Charles cantor earlier Neuberger Berman. Eric Friedman with us US Bank. And now on continued courage in the markets to Dow right now ninety three points, twenty six thousand one hundred Gina. Martin Adams, I wanna go over a PE as sixteen or twenty or twenty three versus the inverse of the yield of the bond market, yet, which means stocks are cheap are screaming cheap. Yeah. Or bonds are screaming overpriced. How does it Grizzle pro like you address, a of sixteen versus a much higher? Inverse P E for bonds. Well lately called that is the risk premium right? Investors are requiring a tremendous amount of potential return in order to invest in equities, and it's been one of the stories of this entire cycle. It hasn't gone away, the risk premiums remained enormously high if you look at the risk premium for Steiner right now, relative to the ten year treasury bond, it's four fifth higher than the last fifty years. That means it's eighty percent higher than the average of the last two years. It's really incredible. Now, if you look in. The short run over the last ten years. It looks pretty average. Right. It's, it's just stayed very, very high for the last ten years, plus great financial crisis, frankly, just no one wants stocks. Everyone wants the security of higher yield and the result has been sort of the extraordinary risk premium. It's not prevent the market from going higher. But it is absolutely evidence of sentiment and it's really Cirque. Because when Lisa gets angry at her six year old she calls risk premium. Yes, no, it's truly. And then he goes in any cries closet up. No, Gina Martin Adams, one thing that I'm wondering about Eric Friedman, just mentioned that the data showing that corporate profits have already peaked and are starting to trend downward. And I'm wondering what point that will offset the sort of record high risk premium that you're talking about, you know, the words are people getting spooked by that? I think that they have been somewhat spooked to that, that was a lot of what two thousand eighteen story was as an looking forward, investors saying, okay. It's not gonna get any better. Twenty five percent earnings growth peak earnings last year. Really, this year is not in my mind story of earnings, turning down, but earnings slowing down tremendously and just not growing especially relative to the growth rates that we had a year ago. I think this is playing into shift in momentum in favor of more defensive names that's playing into sort of this, this high risk premium maintaining its high level over the course of this year, even with the rally we've had in stocks, obviously pales in comparison to the extrordinary rally we've had in bonds. The results is just lack of risk, tolerance and earnings are absolutely playing a part of that. Now, I think it's still a question Mark as to where earnings are going to go in twenty twenty and that's an important question is, if you believe that are absolutely falling this year, and they're going to fall into twenty twenty then you should be incredibly defensively positioned, if in stocks at all. But that's not our belief. We actually think that earnings are probably just not growing this year, and may actually take higher into twenty twenty depending upon the course of economic and, and fed data that comes out over the second half of this year, so bullish you sound really bullish on equities right now. I wouldn't say I'm really bullish fair value for the us. And P five hundred is twenty nine hundred. So that seems to be about where we've peaked recently our strategies are quite defensive with utilities and real estate toward the top, but I'm also not incredibly bearish. I think you have mixed results in the near term as a result of that you got a lot of economic risk related to trade policy offset by a lot of potential for monetary policy and that creates a sideways trading range for the near the confusion here is Lisa Abramowicz. Pulse weenie a very gloomy program, I guess checks. A little more as opposed to here as opposed. We got the sun's coming up. We gotta be sick. I want to bring this down the breast tax. We got viewers listeners. They've missed the market, the bene- market. Everybody's a benchmarking of an S and P five hundred P five hundred year to date. A fifteen percent as well. Thirty percent annualized. Nobody's there. Nobody's there. Let's assume how do I catch up? You're not. I don't hear that from you. It's not a time. Yeah. Try to catch up. I don't know if it's time to catch up to be honest with you. I think that you might till into certain selected opportunities when we run a screen for instance in the us, and P five-hundred we look evaluations about thirty percent of the index is still trading below its five-year average multiple so there are still opportunities in the index. It's just you have to do a little homework. Mentioned mid-caps. I mean closure folks, I like mid caps. But, but, you know, we're all talking about same ain't names that everybody. Here's plot apple. When I get into apple. There's a whole nother world out there, right there is I mean, I think when you look across the spectrum of all, US asset classes, mid cap, and small cap search for Mendis-led undervalued, relative to large cap stocks. I'm not sure what the catalyst is to get them moving as asset classes at large in the short run. But when we look at the small cap index as a perfect example, the rest of more than half the Russell two thousand is still trading below five year average multiples whereas thirty percent of the s&p five hundred is so there are definitely a lot of opportunities that still exist. The Neath the top line on some of these indices, you do have to have some, you know, wherewithal in order to take the risk. I mean, a lot of these stocks that are undervalued are very value oriented stocks, some of them into financials, which has been tremendously under appreciated and sector that nobody wanted to be into this entire cycle. Some of them are in energy consumer discretionary, which investors have been quite fearful to really judge. Into. So I do think you wanna pick your spots at this point in time. It just can't make a case for stocks to materially move strongly, higher, or strongly lower in the short run. So how do you factor in some of the trade, concerns and sort of the potential terrorists here? Yeah. We've done some work on the tariffs, just pure numbers isolated the trade relationship between the US and China should it deteriorate to the point where every product that we import and export to. And from China is tariff at twenty five percent would result in about a three percent, decline to EIB it for the s&p five hundred. I think we're pretty close to pricing nut in the question is very much about what are the snowball effect of deteriorating trade relations. How much does it result in a major seachange in technology sourcing of product and production all over the world? How much does it results in reading earning, skirt, deteriorating economic growth in Europe, for example, or the rest of Asia? Obviously. Seeing South Korea as an area of tremendous weakness right now. Is that? Right. That's the question two minutes to ten o'clock so you can let gloom. Thank you so much. I would point out acclaimed on Wall Street for the courage to be invested coming out of the great financial crisis of seven, and all of our equity coverage here at Bloomberg green on the screen up one hundred twenty six points, twenty six thousand one thirty one I'm going to take two decimal points, one point nine nine percent up to a record high. That's under two percent by any measurement is well yields flat. Two point one one percent on the ten year yield dollar stronger fractionally yen, one eight forty eight. This is Bloomberg. It.

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"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:59 min | 3 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is Bloomberg radio. This is Bloomberg markets with Lisa Abramowicz, and Paul's we is there any Bank right now in the US that you think is a by do you think chairman Paul has lost the market? Jeff Bezos is no dope. What's the big contain the big question? I think for investors is free cash flow breaking market news and insight from Bloomberg experts. US tariffs actually heard both China and the US large strategic are looking to buy or invest in innovation. So I think then Cornyn been basically at or below the cost of production for about four or five years. We'll we'll see. More years. This Bloomberg markets with Lisa Abramowicz. A whole Sweeney on Bloomberg radio coming up. We're going to take a deeper dive into General Motors earnings which did beat expectations of the if you peel back under the covers Paul. I thought it was really interesting that Mary Barra. The CEO saying they do not expect profitability in their electric vehicle unit for a couple of years. I think these the big Detroit automakers are taking a wait and see as it relates to the av business. Yeah. Also, we'll take a look at China right now, though, let's head over to our own Greg Jarrett, Bloomberg business flash. Greg stature pulling back from earlier lows. Lisa earnings reports in negative sentiment on a trade deal caused the lower open. Eric Friedman US Bank wealth management tells Bloomberg the current investing environment is sector specific. So we think healthcare we think we think technology, those are two areas that have a long term demographic story and in productivity is what it is. We've got CFO's across the world saying I need to sell more. I need to make my people more efficient. So there'd be an ongoing. Did we think for tech Spencer? Those are two years that were still bullshit among earnings-related moves. General Motors is up after topping prophet estimates right now GM is up one and a half percent schnaps source as its user base stabilized up twenty five percent microchip technologies. Call for bottom of the ship cycle boosted semiconductor makers right now microchip technology is up nine point two percent while electric arts and take to plunged after posting disappointing numbers. We check the markets. Every fifteen minutes of trading.

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"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

09:30 min | 3 years ago

"eric friedman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Struggling for direction amid mixture boards from corporate heavyweights and after a drop in German factory orders. We check the markets. Every fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg s and p futures down a point Dow futures down eight NASDAQ futures up four and a half. The Dax in Germany's down half percent ten year treasury up one thirty seconds yield two point six nine percent. Yield on the two year two point five two percents. Nymex crude oil down two tenths percent or ten cents to fifty three fifty six a barrel. Comex gold down about two tenths percent or two dollars to thirteen seventeen twenty an ounce the euro dollar thirteen eighty nine and a yen one oh nine point seven five. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom and John churn. Thanks so much Jennifer on Tom Keene. Sure story John, and I wrote having a beverage of our choice. This is on Friday after a long long week. We're getting tuned up for pre merely soccer and he's going over the fifth beer. He's going over all the fight songs or whatever they're called the. So what do they call it? The fight songs. That's what we call them in college. College football. No fight song. Yeah. Okay. We're gonna have a Serena's, correct? Football scout emails coming in from the United Kingdom. Why are you playing Jerry in the place makers do it? Right. So here's what we're gonna do. Here is they're going to regroup here in about eight minutes and solve this Eric with us right now. And John, and I agree. There's too much international relations too, much politics. We're just gonna talk markets here for eight minutes. Eric Friedman, can you deploy capital today into the equity market, you can Tom and we look at it more as a relative value type of opportunity said meaning this is not a let's let's go take a flyer on EM or developed or what have you does more sector style market cap. We think that's the opportunity this most attractive near a has a killer smoke kept large-cap chart is it mid cap that no one talks about or you go multinational. We think it's mid cap. That's the spot where it's under research. It remains under research there. Certainly pressure on the hedge fund industry with redemptions. And so seeing some of the babies being thrown out with the bathwater. That's a spot where we think you can make money. So that's priority. Number one. We think emerging markets is becoming more interesting, Tom, but not there quite yet. So in a relative value opportunity, we'd really emphasize US over EM as well as over develop. But we think is becoming slightly more interesting as a data the prices get weaker just interested in a couple of things it's not the United States in the mid cap story. Shannon, lie on the sect to be alike in United States. Where is it Jonathon, really, healthcare and technology? Those are things that we think are not just short-term interesting. But also, long-term durable healthcare. Of course. Tremendous demographic story, we're not getting younger, we're all doing cross fit all doing things that are actually making us more frail. So those are things that we all a YouTube just looking at this room. I mean, there's there's a lot of there's a lot of strike homes. Thomas seriously shredded. Absolutely. Yeah. Absolutely. He's been working at heart. For the last month doing cross fit. Cross cross fit for the lots for. Yeah. Okay. Folks. What is he talking about Mr. Farrell cut chisel, what is cross fit? Well is crossfire. I've never done cross. What is also I would also say pleading ignorance in the front I've been more of a of a backseat driver wasted running triathlon like mix it all together. It's like curling your Genesee cream ale on. Regular listener. And me through the idea behind this. You trying to take some cyclicality out of the portfolio. How you thinking about this Jonathan there's really three events coming up the next month and a half you've got the government shutdown hopefully resolution Feb fifteen you've got a March one as hard deadline for China US trade relations any of Brexit on March twenty ninth. That's a lot of stuff that we think the market is not pricing. Not saying that we have an edge. Will you don't think anybody has an edge per se on specific outcomes. But we're we're looking to make money for clients. We have to think, okay. Let's take some of these more exotic factors like those three events and think about where do we have an edge and those are areas like the pace of data. We think is interesting. At these relative value opportunities. So specifically to mid-caps that's a spot where we think less Wall Street research, west participation by hedge funds just given the cycle of redemptions that we're seeing. So those are opportunities that we have some durability. Also think that sectors like healthcare demographics, also technology CFO's? No, they have a productivity issue. They want to sell more. They want to grow more. They can't get there. Unless there's more software and services. John just I went to vanguard mid-cap. Good morning late memory, Mr. Bogle, John Edwards life sciences. Redhead Pfizer Autodesk technologies. Amphion all world pay Moody's seventeen. One oak some names. Yeah. That's. The world that we never talk about. Well, let's talk about it. And let's talk about technology the productivity story for business technology spending looking at the camp x from Google and alphabet over the last couple of days when we got that earnings report that succumbed that thinks is a big story here. And when they want to invest in aggressively is a big supply chain here that you're thinking about plank into how does that work for you, Eric we do Johnston? There's there's really two things work number one would be intra company. So thinking about ways that that a company can improve their big data analytics that's a spot that you have some the companies you mentioned are clear front runners in that business. So whether it's having web services that are offered literally to the masses, whether you're a huge multinational company or a small startup having hosted web services. That's that's a game changer for a lot of companies. Then also, I think the consumer side when people think about again, those those gizmos and gadgets that make us hopefully more productive. It's the one two punch of big corporate spend. But also incremental consumer spend. So that remains we think an ongoing bid and not going away anytime so listening to you for the last four minutes, or so I just had some that spelling out the idea that global macro going to be really really difficult. There's some big headline risk on the agenda with binary outcomes that you don't want exposure to. But you did mention the AM which feels like a big macro story and some significant headline risk on the horizon. With by comes to try story, paying one of them. So why is he and becoming increasingly attractive? Yeah. We think it's interesting for two reasons one is because the data is actually slightly stabilizing Jonathan and it's really more a function of things not getting worse as opposed to thing is getting incrementally better. Now as Julia Coronado said, a little earlier some stimulus driven what we want to see is let's get out of the trade, negotiation parlance, right? And then let's see actually how companies and consumers start spending. That would make us a little more bullish. We're going to get that really out of the way I've been asking everybody this question, and it's great to do. Eric Freeman with you with US Bank, and the kind of people that US Bank speaks to every day. Bill Gross, just retired. And got crushed being unconstrained admitted on air. A little bit of ad hoc liberty off perspectives. And it got him in trouble. We talked about hedge funds, and that versus a mandate is well, that's not just fancy guys with a stamp collection. Is it's all of us out there discuss unconstrained in the pitfalls of that for the little guy. We think about unconstrained Tom with respect to portfolio construction. We have to know what bets are intentional versus what bets are unintentional. And when you have more of an unconstrained orientation, you enter into a world with lots of era terms, you enter into a rule where there's a lot of things that can impact your portfolio that don't know. No. But behaviorally unconstrained is a symmetric. It's not about unconstrained and in the ball out of the park. This would be John the ball over the turnpike off the casket flag right by the Venezuelan citgo sign. Thanks. It would be your plan. And if you are unconstrained, it's a lose imagery, it is loose symmetry. So I think our approach has been let's make sure that our bonds are full, faith and credit. We're happy to take risks else from the portfolio private equity. We're happy to take risks elsewhere in the portfolio with with public equities real estate with with real assets. But within bonds with fixed income that's a spot where if you're taking on on toward risk you find yourself in the in the wrong, Eric Friedman. Thank you so much with US Bank for joining us today, really greatly. Appreciate it and lots of timely themes here. Again, we did an entire podcast of Mr. grosses interview with us the other day, you can see that on Spotify in the news John Spotify buying. Gimblett the podcast juggernaut for jillion dollars. That in itself is interesting and also on apple podcast. You can download the podcast. Around stuff instead of Spotify. We play on spot we're on Spotify on Spotify. Which is cool. We're on apple podcasts and on Spotify as well. And we'll have that is John. I want you to set this up for Gerry and the pacemakers nine hundred sixty three dozen. Gonna get from the people that Hilda. How big is the stadium like sixty thousand people a little less than that. I think it's not massive. They need.

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