17 Burst results for "Ed Harrison"

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:27 min | Last month

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Welcome to investment ideas. I'm ed harrison here for real vision. I'm talking to david rosenberg. Whose the founder of rosenberg research david. Welcome back thanks said. It's great to see again next time in person i hope. Yeah that's going to be a long long as you got my stuff. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. Yeah great so you know. There's so many things that we can talk about right now but let's start here because we were just You teen it up before we got on camera. We're talking about the disconnect between shares and and the the economy. And this is something that you write about a lot by the way. Let me just point out for your own purposes. That people can get a. They can get a free trials at right to your a newsletter. How do you do that. Well it's not just the newsletter inside. It's everything we do both verbal and renton and Well i would just say. Go on the rosenberg. Research website and click on the The free Free trial button and you'll get prompted to come in and You can kick our tires. Get a free month's A subscription of everything not not just the daily. There's a lot more than that Yeah and enjoy the we're going to Maybe we'll put a link in so people can do that after we do this interview. I notice by the way that you were talking to a lot of great people coming up. Lee cooperman peter book varvara. John too often lacy hunt a great stuff that you have and i. I'm guessing those webcast available as well as that right well Those webcasts are actually for our premium. Clients So if you actually come on for the free trial that's really the only thing that that we don't give out as part of that trial that's because it's called a premium package for a reason and Yeah we've got You know howard marks is going to be coming on and We've already roped in the paul mccully And you mentioned lacy hunt You know late last year. We had neil ferguson on And jim grant and My hero and mentor..

neil ferguson david rosenberg david Lee cooperman rosenberg ed harrison John jim grant both marks last year paul mccully peter late varvara renton
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

04:29 min | 2 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Sell off. Duration risk looms large for some asset and central banks in the land down under show that they're willing to play ball will j. pals for all of this and more. I'm joined by real vision. Managing editor ed harrison. And if we're lucky we might be joined by real vision. Ceo row pal..

ed harrison Ceo row j.
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:56 min | 3 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Then they experts were brought back. Devastated manufacturing and north america and europe added to this is whole of organization income. Because you had a lot of very high paying jobs in manufacturing this country or just justice appeared you had his income a polarization which is is been seized on by the democrats and that whole tax policy is aimed their way. You look at now. I i live in new jersey too and they just passed a law in new jersey. About a month ago you recall. And it increases the tax the income tax on top rate. I think went from nine. Something attends something percent but then they redistributed money down everybody else. In a net increase in tax elections to the new jersey state government was almost nothing. It was strictly an income. Redistribution of scheme. And the democrats should new jersey's a very blue state and democrats control of a control. Everything they say house and both houses of legislature. So you're seeing that in other words it's is much more at a reaction to this income ongoing income polarization. I think than it is any kind of feeling of of tax reform right. So but he's a if we get something from on taxes will be at the margin and the overall tilt will be toward. I hate to use the term. Redistribution but towards lessening inequality. Let's say yeah that that's the objective. How far how far they're gonna get where the handed niggers is questionable. That's certainly a Desire under democrats okay. So i'm looking at the time before we get to the Investment these two or three things. I wanna talk to you about before the. Let's see if we can get them in I wanna talk to you about europe. But before that i wanna talk about spending. You're saying that. yeah okay. A biden once as he proposes it but it may not happen on the tax front. What about on the spending front and i think infrastructure and green energy in particular infrastructure is something that i've been i've been surprised has not been attack full force of for at least a decade. I mean the goodness knows. We certainly needed roads. Bridges airports the whole infrastructure. You and i go to penn station occasionally and disgrace to the orca. I i mean we need infrastructure in this country and both democrats and republicans agree now up a now. The whole question spent financing it. and who. Who's gonna pay for but now that we're in a situation where we're deficits don't matter and the ideas. Let's get money into circulation. I think there's going to be a big push for or infrastructure. Spending the will have bipartisan by fire. Since the court so. I wrote suspected that will be an important element. How green is that a push going be. I mean because that's the other element Biden has been pushing. I would take the bipartisan support. Would be much more just kind of a more better roads. Bridges stray far infrastructure The green part of it. Now he can..

new jersey republicans both two About a month ago north america three Biden penn station nine both houses democrats europe least a decade
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:52 min | 3 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Money that's all your. That's what markets seemed to worry about him. You look at the employment numbers urea very low employment numbers and what happens. Bond selloff stock rally. Why were shameless. This is a really strange world but it does suggest that at least in terms of of allow investors. The only thing accounts now is what happens in washington and worse. Things are the better. It's gonna be for for for particularly for equities. I get the sense. That investors are gonna be disappointed with the outcome. Based upon what you're saying is the backdrop here and also the backdrop that i see i mean just put to put it in a different way. We got we have this nine hundred eighty starting standing still starting to standstill or however you put it bill. That's going that's with a republican backing to a certain degree of it with a republican president. When you get a democratic president in office joe biden does going to be less political will to work with him perhaps in there is with with trump. How's it even possible than that. You get anything done in that circumstance especially if the senate remains a republican well. I think that's true. I mean it. It's really just a mayor. How bad is the economy get. And therefore how much pressure does does everybody in washington democrat or republican. Feel that they've got a bail out the economy but again the whole idea of of government. That was such a a back to paul ryan when he was speaker of the house. He was very much on the warpath reducing dowsett. Don't matter now. I mean they. They call it modern monetary theory every time. There's an event that happens. There is a theory. Dreamed up to explain it and the whole idea. Now that you're pumping out all this money. There's no crowding out of private. Borrowing interest rates have been declining as at center. Inflation is declining. All of that. They say okay so it doesn't matter you could. You could finance anything you want. It's really kind of a of a never. Never land. i. I mean. I think it's a is a huge departure from anything called economic reality. But you know that's where we are at the moment. It does seem like that is where we are at the moment. I it's interesting. You say that. Because i noted on twitter olivier shar who is one of these policymakers in economic circles that people know about he took to twitter saying that we may be on the verge of a shift in fiscal paradigm. He said proof of concept the large winner between summers furman. Banenky rogoff in me at a meeting. That they had at the peterson institute. By the way which is anti-deficit. But it's it's that's organization. That's that's known to be anti-deficit so i think that At a policy level it does seem like these guys are very much of that mindset but the political mindset may be slightly different than that Let me talk. Maybe can talk to that and let me just ask. An ancillary question that is related. What's a steven mnuchin at. Is he in terms of time. Jenny jones hands is he saying i'm not of that policy. Mindset bloodshot is talking about or is. He acted in a purely political. I think it's a live filed. A political kind of feeling of of the trump administration is on the way out. And and kind of feeling you know why should we necessarily be overly guacamole dip with the with the enemy for.

joe biden trump paul ryan washington twitter Jenny jones Banenky rogoff olivier shar republican peterson institute steven mnuchin one nine hundred eighty democrat furman
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

04:11 min | 3 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Now to rsvp welcome to investment ideas. I'm your host. Ed harrison it. I'm talking to gary schilling. Who is the founder and president. I believe it is of the economic consultancy and information the investment advisors of the same name. I really screwed that up. Gary maybe you can tell us what what the answer is. Yeah we're we're in registered investment advisers than economic themselves. We also published a newsletter. So we're pretty much covered the waterfront from the top down on the economy starting with the economy and getting down to the investment strategy. Will you. we've spoken before But i think this is a good time to mention the fact that you have a the monthly newsletter the insider newsletter which have been doing for quite a long time limit. Just give you a little bit of a plug. Because people can get to at a gary schilling dot com. You can also find it at eight. Eight eight three four six seven four four four a bit old school in terms of the telephone number. The reason i mentioned that gary is again. You've been doing this independent research One of the best out there for a long time. How long have you been in the business. Yeah wait what was shot up the permit. Nineteen seventy eight and we've been publishing the newsletter pretty much the whole time and if people are interested we we happy to sign him a complimentary copy if it was a call or an email from shelves. What kind of things. We do excellent. So yeah that number again. And then also a gary schilling dot com. They can get in touch with you. Now gary to talk to you about your investment thesis this investment ideas..

Gary Ed harrison gary schilling gary Eight One dot com six Nineteen seventy eight com
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:46 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"It tells you a lot about the The lack of of scholarship lack of writing lack of material about how the monetary system really works in so. I can't really recommend any sources other than you know to look at primary sources and data take apart balance-sheets take apart you know that. Take data for example and and see how it works in your in your own mind and how it works how it feels into your own framework. Because there's so few really true monetary scholars who are willing to go into the details in the nitty gritty and make some sense of it and even of the few who do and who have they are always working from this. This mainstream conventional paradigm continues to put the central bank in the middle. And so even those who do look into the the monetary shadows are confused by them. Because they're using the wrong world. So i wish i had a better answer and i am working on eurodollar universities. You point it out as of means to try to to fill in some of that some of those blind spots you know when he mentions eurodollar university i think of eurodollars million dollar market and therefore i think of you know huge oversight in terms of the conversation that we have just had in general about you know what about the rest of the world. What's going on in europe and what's going on in japan Given the outcomes that you've been talking about the views specifically on those two regions because we're talking about a global monetary Means it's it's it's dollars that exists outside the united states but they also exist with the united states so really. There is no us economy or european economy or japanese economy. It's really globalized. Economy and the euro-dollar system is what ties it all together. And that's why for the last thirteen years as the eurodollar system has been a drag. It has been a drag global growth. It has continued to be a dragon global growth. that's why we had a downturn cycle from two thousand eighteen ford which was supposed to meet upturn in acceleration so even before we got to the covert thing before we get to the covid break. The global economy was already in the downturn in even more disappointingly since march since april since the bottom. We've seen the trade statistics lag on the upside. Which is a bad sign. Because it says okay. The stopped the supposed to drive global economy at the margins which is global trade. That's having the most trouble comeback. That's having the most experience with what i think is continued dollar does acuity high level of dollar dysfunction ever since march and april and so when we look at the european economy versus the us economy. It's not like the. Us is recovering in. Europe is not or europe is recovering the. Us's not it's always to which one is not recovering. The least you know which which one is which one is faring. Better but not actually better road and you know you mentioned there Something that made me think about the the x. y. dollar smile know because basically march there was a rusty liquidity in the dollar went through the roof. But you know now. We're looking dick's wild like ninety two ninety three. I think we're looking at the euro at one eighteen one nineteen Would you see those those levels going..

europe japan march april two regions two thousand united states japanese european bank nineteen Europe last thirteen years one ninety two ninety three ford eighteen
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

02:59 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"The things they keep promising that will happen. Never happened and so you have to stop and think. Why do these things not happen. And what the fed has done into this grand strategy review was said we're going to avoid every We're going to avoid all the evidence that points only in the one direction. Were powerless in the relevant. Try to come up with all of these reverse engineered. Expect a Excuses for why. We're not irrelevant because we have to be right. I mean they're starting with the premise. And then moving backwards from it and trying to fit evidence into it which is the exact opposite of scientific endeavors are supposed to be well. Let's flip over to the real economy. Then we can get back to the interaction of the fed once we start looking forward The i think you've made some interesting comments with regard to what i would call slack in the economy because You alluded to the concept that during the aftermath of the great financial crisis the fed was saying you know we have three point five percent unemployment. All these things are happening but the reality might have been that there was more slack in the economy What was going on in the aftermath of the great financial crisis up until the pandemic from a real economy perspective. Well you know. I think people most people are are aware of the participation problem which is that the unemployment rate has is a faulty signal because of a lot of potentially tens of millions of of former workers who have been excluded from the denominator and they're all sorts of reasons. They're also of valid reasons why they haven't shown up in in the denominator the unemployment rate. Which if they had would have shown that the the the unemployment rate the true unemployment rate was much higher and there are different forms of the unemployment. Obviously get up to five and you six and things like that but the idea is simply that the major unemployment rate has not been an accurate reflection on the real economy because if it had been than we would have seen the inflationary burst driven through wages in two thousand seventeen two thousand eighteen and twenty nineteen that the federal reserve officials kept promising. They kept expecting that that would happen because they wanted to believe. The unemployment rate was an accurate picture of the economy and the reason is simple. Because if you believe monetary policy worked and then it didn't work for a long time but you still believe that word then. Your answer was what we just need to give it more time more time more time. It'll eventually work and the unemployment rate by going down and down and down seemed to validate that approach. It said okay. We've forgiven enough time all this. Qe stuff does actually work but it needed to be corroborated by inflation. And so that's where everything started to go wrong and twenty seventeen to twenty eight eighteen because the unemployment rate went down well below where we thought full employment was. Therefore that should have been the triggered for the inflationary. Pressures that jay powell was always talking about but they never happened again. That's implicit in this grand. Strategy review is. The fed is now admitting two years after the fact thirty years after the fact it didn't happen and so why didn't it happen..

two thousand five percent six twenty seventeen jay powell tens of millions twenty eight eighteen twenty nineteen thirty years one direction two years fed five seventeen up eighteen three point
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:56 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"They can't do it and so they keep going back to expectations for wired expectations of being fulfilled in the way that they're supposed to be fulfilled. What they've settled on is that the fed has done too good of a job with monetary policy because everybody knows from nineteen seventy four. The fed is an inflation fighter. Central banking is an inflation fighter. And so what they've surmised is all that's got in the way every time inflation started to creep up toward two percent because the tire markets believe in the fed and believe it's an inflation fighter. Believed that the two percent target was actually a ceiling. That's what what's j. powell was talking about jackson hole. So how does the fed then get expectations to go above the ceiling. While they say were placed target is symmetrical were gonna average inflation target over long run. So we're going to overcome people's objections and expectations that the central bank is inflation fighter. That's what they believe is holding them back for a decade. The fed is too good at its inflation fighting job and now they want you to know..

j. powell two percent jackson hole nineteen seventy four fed bank decade
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:35 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"What's going on is the private sector is basically hungry for income. And so what they're doing. Is that basically. A lot of institutions are writing puts and calls. They're effectively go short volatility or show gamma strategies on and basic by looking income. Hopefully praying the you. Don't get any spikes in volatility as soon as you start to see volatility spiking. You'll see a rush for the dole. Bigger will close those trades. And you're gonna see a spike upwards in yields and that's in a way what's playing out in the days of november. That's what we see. Interestingly we saw that they liked twenty sixty signed phenomenon so overall it would suggest that the the The allocation is to be underweight Bond especially at the longer end of the curve to be overweight equities and overweight alternative assets like gold bitcoin. There's no question about that. That's exactly what you should be position. And you want to have an international flavor because we think that you're gonna get some slippage ebola nor dramatic one of the next two months but you're gonna get a slippage now. The chop The you look at which is looking at regional flows of liquidity into a different sierras. Add we show that. As a percentage of global liquidity what data is illustrating is cross border capital flows into europe into asia into the americas. Let's say that's really the us if you look at that shot of a time what you find is. There have been three periods of strong inflows into the dollar. The first of those was the mid nineteen eighties when japanese insurance companies with buying the us treasury market. I remember i was asylum umbrellas at the time. And that was a little of damone coming through from uk japanese insurers the next period was basically the end of nineteen off to the asian crisis of during the crisis with it was flat capital coming out of asia into the safety of us assets. That was the second one. The third episode which is the biggest spike occurred from about twenty sixty two thousand fifteen twenty sixteen woods and it really coincided with two things but he was about the demand sifi sits in the world economy the first 'cause walls z. Jingping premier china when on anti corruption drive and forced the shadow banks to deliver Particularly that foreign borings what you saw was a lot of money moving back into the dollar that face. So if you look at the chart you say opposite movement in asian asian flows at that time. Us goes up aged comes down second find was you had a euro of banking crisis in twenty ten twenty twelve okay. Europe started to see big capital outflows at that. Time and effectively. A lot of european banks were buying. Us faucets because the austerity driving europe created the supply Booms this would not be issued through that period. So what you saw was at the moment the us facets consequential you see the spike of money going into the dolla and ever since the peak in two twenty sixteen twenty. Seventeen it's progressively come down. He still positive make no mistake. It's positive right now. Britain's going negative going negative because you're gonna stop seeing money flying. Vikings euro area despite cyclical movements and effectively..

us treasury dole ebola asia Jingping americas europe uk us china Europe Britain Vikings
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:31 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Face old life in twenty twenty one the other lot of avenues that we can shoot off from there to that i'm thinking about our regional deepening. When you talk about the asian fix and don't let me forget that. I want to come back to that concept but i it just occurred to me. This whole conversation This i i sent you a threat from hugh hendry negative interest rates. And you know what my thinking is this european. Us thing Makes me think about u s negative interest rates in to the degree that everyone's gone negative Except for the us certain other anglo saxon economies. All of the europeans have japan's gone negative. The us If you talk about the us depreciating. That's a surefire way to get the. Us dollar depreciated also turned to the negative interest rate policy. How much Is it really a quantity game in terms of quantitative easing versus a rate game in terms of where the the fx market is going okay. It's hundred percent quantity getting but that's might say if you look at the negative interest rate question. Negative interest rates are the craziest idea. Central binds levels would up. It's it's ridiculous and let me let me go into the recess. Why that is the first thing is what you operating in in in. That was topsy turvy. World now seem wonderland will where everything is in reverse so effectively. What you're doing is you're not a boring short mending long. You're effectively barring long. Bending show again you penalizing. The banks banks be persuaded under basel three to up these huge recaps reserves. Are you gonna stop penalizing putting negative interest rates on safe. You create a bad profitability with for the banks. One of they can lend so. This is nonsensical okay. There's never been any example of any countries negative interest rates which had opposed outcome. Okay it's seriously bow idea and if it's been spoken about what is being seriously spoken about in the us it's being talked about in the uk but this is a crazy crazy day of my people..

hugh hendry us japan basel uk
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:55 min | 4 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Tainted more bitcoin into gold so in other words if we're into a pro-cyclical risk environment which should be the case given the fact that economy is recovering and because this lots of liquidity around investors want to take more risk than you let these see some overshoot in bitcoin in the next twelve months so i'd fleets they bitcoin to hit twenty five hundred bucks per coin. Very good that. That's a big call. Maybe that's the shoutout in terms of the clip for this particular episode in fact Let me get back to something because you mentioned china. I would say multiple times in in the so far in the conversation. And i saw a interesting figuring one of your latest pieces. It was showing. Us in european cap percentage of the world total from nineteen eighty to two thousand and two hundred. And you see. I would say from about two thousand and two just an absolute of young cratering of us european cap as as a percentage of the world's cap acts in my belief is that china is probably the underneath that. What's the story going forward with this decoupling given that chart. Well i mean. That's that's the reason why we have to decouple of why the us has to couple. And i think the thing is in this year what's been Over the last twenty years is the easy. Ri- that china goal now. I've not been in. The canvas suggests that china is about to fall off. The cliff will the financial system is going to implode. The system is set up by that Chinese banks have go pretty stable liability background. So they don't wanna go bust immediately agai- the fattest that china looks much. Although i hesitate to say this quickly like the soviet union again it's an economy light that johnny one might be saying that but that's effectively. What's happening now. If you look back Go back to nineteen hundred ninety. Nine thousand nine hundred. I'm studying a soviet economy. A university a k. One of the things that was clear was the most academic experts were projecting That the soviet future was fantastic and ninety nine hundred. Roy was on top of the of the top of the us okay. They everyone mindful soviets will overtake water. Joke look forward. Twenty years soviet union didn't even exist again so this is how quickly things can evan flow. So what we're looking at now john. Everyone thinks china is going to be the great success story. twenty is out. It might be completely different. Story of the fight is the planned economies could work it's like it's not producing subsidies. You can put a little mix in the hopper. You can create a little very low quality sausages but ultimately. You're not you're not a driving productivity forward and the fact is that it's very difficult. These economies to innovate and basically move outside of very set lines production so as soon as the soviet union starting to move towards consumer goods. The whole thing collapse. The wheels kimmel and china vertigo at saint problem charterers bind because china needs technology and it needs. The financial system needs.

china soviet union Us johnny Roy evan john
"ed harrison" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

03:24 min | 5 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Even if the shutdowns consumer behavior from the way of coronavirus. Didn't do that. So jamie dimon. I think he's totally right. When he says there is a risk of a double dip. In fact i would consider double dip to be my base case given where we are right now. So when i say base forty to fifty percent probability if not more that we see gdp rollover into negative territory with interest rates around zero percent fiscal policies. More important than ever in the current climate that we're in jenin. Yellen looks likes. You will be the biden administration treasury secretary. Which implications does that half ross as investors. I think that it means that the fed and the treasury can work hand in glove as long as obviously the congress allows the treasury to have a free hand all depends obviously on what the composition of the senate is also how amenable the senate is to executive branch doing the things that they wanna do. But janet yellen being old hand in washington someone who is vice-chairman than later chairman of the federal reserve board. Someone who knows everyone at the fed who has a personal relationship with jay powell who's now the federal reserve chairman. She can work really well effectively with the fed. She can also work with a lot of the other people in the administration who she knows from her time as the fed chair and also in congress because they know who she is based upon her testimony when she was a fed person she's well positioned be affected if the united states is still ineffective democracy. That is if there is not gridlock in the us. Not unable to get things done just purely. Because we've broken down as a democracy. Then janet yellen will be well-placed to get those things done. So that bodes. Well what i would say. The known unknown is how well congress will will receive her. How well will they allow to do her job and we already know the shot across the bow actually comes from the outgoing treasury secretary steven mnuchin. Who's already tied yellen hands in certain regard in. He's also tried to tie j. pals hand so they're gonna have to re up. What was happening in two thousand and twenty and if congress doesn't want them to re up data bit of a problem it was interesting. Set there that the fed and the treasury could potential work well together so if we look back at great financial crisis you could definitely talk about a corporation that point in time. They did a lot of things together and did a very very fast. Could you talk to us about like. What does it look like. Whenever those two entities work together. Well what does it look like when the down one way to think about it. Is that the federal reserve or the central bank in. General is the government's bag that is that they're doing a role that the government allows them to do so when we talk about the federal reserve buying backed securities or buying treasury bonds. That's because the government has said we established the central bank as an independent agency and we give them authorization to do those types of transactions..

federal reserve janet yellen treasury Yellen biden administration treasury congress jay powell jamie dimon senate jenin federal reserve board steven mnuchin yellen ross united states washington government
"ed harrison" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

05:03 min | 5 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on We Study Billionaires - The Investors Podcast

"Whose the editor at revision tv today we cover the accelerating debt situation across the globe and the opportunities and constraints for investors will also cover the continued massive money printing the impact on the economy not only as investors but as citizens so without further delay. We bring you our discussion with ed harrison. You're listening to the invested podcast while we studied the financial markets and read the books that influenced self made billionaires the most. We keep you informed and prepared for the unexpected. Hey guys before. We jump into the interview. I want to explain a new structure. We have on the podcast preston. I have gotten a lot of comments. About how the show has weird off bell investing because pretend to discuss become lately but because we've all your opinion and we also like to stay true to the concept of wasted billionaires. We decided to start a new serious within the we started billionaires feed cold bitcon fundamentals so apart from the regular episodes released saturday. You can now expect new episodes that dedicated to bitcoin every wednesday. As you all know has been very passionate about become so he'll be hosting the new continental show and he has amazing lineup of guests in store for you so again wednesday. A soul of become discussion west. Saturday bezos remain the same to help distinguish between the two we also labeled the episode titles differently all because episodes labeled btc instead of t. ip for instance this is labeled t ip three hundred twenty seven and the bitcoin lower. Stay is btc. Three if you listen to this on spotify you should see the regular red upward while those on. Bitcoin all orense. This distinction reflected on apple. Podcast but apple is already working on this soon. Now we are where that becomes is not everybody's cup of tea so for those who are not interested. We completely understand if you skip the wednesday episodes and this own into saturday once also understand. If it's the other way around in any case we hope that by having this new system in place press an able to help more people and really hope this clarifies things. Thank you for the continuous apart guys. Let's jump into the episode. Ed harrison into to the estes podcast. I'm your host bodas. And today i'm here with my co hoax preston fish and this episode is going to be a fun one because we have the inside at harrison with us here today at. Thank you so much for joining me here in today's podcast. Very good to talk to you as always yes last time. You are on our podcast. That was early. September and we talked about how the economy and the stock market would react to a quote. Unquote medical bailout. In other words vaccine. Now we're recording this year in december and it looks like that this month. An estimated twenty million people in the us alone and millions of europeans would have received the vaccine already. How have you position yourself accordingly. What are your thoughts on that medical loud. Yeah i think that the market is in the process of looking through the long dark winter..

ed harrison preston bezos Ed harrison apple harrison us
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

04:24 min | 9 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Mean there's no overlap in their positions Donald trump he himself has said he doesn't think anything's going to happen and it looks like the Senate is likely to recess today for the remainder of the month and it looks increasingly likely according to the. Washington Post that there's GonNa be no deal on the coronavirus legislation until. September. So that means not just. A now but Another month and then interestingly enough this this Washington Post article I had no idea that this was coming up. So quickly they mentioned that was the October first deadline for a government shutdown that is driving the likelihood that you could see a deal in September. So that to me that sent alarm bells ringing the concept that we already wrangling over a pandemic related assistance but then the you know a government shutdown potentially looms in. The distance in October that tells you not only can we get nope pandemic assistance we could actually go into a government shutdown literally one month before an election in the middle of a pandemic. Yeah. You know to quote from the same Washington Post article that you're referring to I believe quote asked Wednesday if it was possible that there will be no deal until the deadline approached. Pelosi said I hope not no people will die. Quote that gives you some sense of the level of tension around these negotiators. a negotiation on both sides in Washington to play everybody's favorite drinking game Let's quote Ed Harrison from. Right down right down let's go man you know at six o'clock Grab Your Beers quote observation. There is likely to be weeks now when almost no fiscal support is coming to the US economy, not only the federal government withdrawing fiscal support and this is the key point but state and local governments are guaranteed to add to the pain which just brings up a whole other level of challenge that you've been thinking. that. You mention that because I hadn't really addressed that fact that you know the way that trump is looking at the the municipalities in the state he said actually in a tweet earlier this week on Monday that the states municipalities to own. He quote only one that bailout money for. Democrat. Run States and cities that are failing badly. So he's fine with not giving them any money because he looks at this is political that Democrats. Are Looking for a bailout and as a result of that you know you're gonNA see some serious pain in terms of you know they don't have a magic money tree that they can go to and start printing stuff off, and then the feds GonNa come in and and you'll buy up all of their bonds. That's not what happens with the states. So they're going to cut and we're gonNA feel the pain as a result of those cuts. Yeah new level of partisanship new level of rancor..

Washington Post Donald trump Washington Senate US Pelosi Ed Harrison
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

05:31 min | 9 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"This is the Real Vision daily briefing I'm spending New York joined shortly by managing editor Ed Harrison we're skipping the intro today because some of our folks here in the Tri State area are still without power from the tropical storm and welcome back Yeah. Thank you. I should say Discount Day in many ways i. mean you talked about the storm in the tri-state area there we we had it as well. But in Beirut were three, hundred, thousand people have been displaced and you know there are hundreds dead our solidarity solidarity's definitely with them today and It's been a difficult sort of human tragedy over there. Ya very difficult the video hard to watch frankly. So talk to talk about markets in that context. But there are a decent number of numbers have been coming out in the US that I'm looking at and. Thinking about in terms of what the US economic situation is. Yeah at one of the things that we spoke about this morning where the ADP payroll numbers, what are your thoughts there? Yeah. So the ADP payroll numbers were really really weak In fact, they were projecting one point five million jobs added in the last month and we only got one hundred, sixty, seven thousand. So when you talk about Mrs, that's a Gargantuan Miss. I about tells you the scale of the job loss slash gains that we're talking about as a result of the pandemic, and it gives you a sense of how difficult it is to. Forecast in this environment but in addition to that, really what it points out is is that there is definitely some slowing. That's going on that we are definitely seeing a slowing of the US economy you can't only add one, hundred, sixty, seven, thousand jobs in July without it being a sign that things were not well in the US economy. Yeah you know it also for me at least reminded me of another theme that we've talked about in the you are early to the party on, which is just how distorted these jobs markets numbers have become in the wake of corona virus now markets basically shrugged off his hideous number, one, hundred, sixty, seven, thousand new jobs when we're supposed to add it. Up on the day the SNP closed at thirty three, twenty seven up about half a point and with this tells you is that markets for whatever reason discounting that number and believing that it is not in touch with reality and in fact, if you look at ADP and other jobs forecast they've been dramatically With the actual numbers that come out from the official reporting agencies..

US ADP Mrs New York Ed Harrison managing editor Beirut corona official
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

02:54 min | 10 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"Im Ash Bennington from new. York joined shortly by Ed Harrison from Washington DC but first. Here's Jack Farley with today's stories. Thanks ash, the rally in gold continue today with the precious metal over one point, eight percent in dollars, standing at nine, hundred, thirty six, as of the time of this filming. This marks a significant. Gold, which is up over nine percent over the past month, and over thirty percent since its lows in mid March, this is an all time record for gold in absolute terms, although adjusting for inflation, gold is nowhere close to where it was during the nineteen eighty rally, that rally occurred as real yields hit in all time low meaning that inflation was not just devouring all interest payments on treasuries, but it was taking a significant bite out of the principal as well in her expert view Lynn. Alden Discusses White Gold. Performs well when will yield or negative. That comes out tomorrow. Stay tuned. Lynn also looks at. At 'em to capita as a relevant metric, since investors flocked to gold as a safe haven as the money supply expands so with negative real yields, and the Fed committing to expanding 'em to for at least the next year, there's definitely an interesting macro backdrop for gold, but they're also some interesting flow dynamics that are flashing even more bullish signals looking at the futures market opened. Interest isn't as high as it's been during other rallies, indicating that isn't speculation in the futures markets. That's driving gold sky high. No, there's actually a tremendous demand for physical gold from family offices to hedge funds to retail investors to. Like, GOP that have seen massive inflows have to buy physical gold to balance out there. And then look at this chart of how many futures contracts are actually being converted into physical deliveries, rather than being rolled over or settled in cash. It's at a record high, so if the retail and institutional players are going long, who's on the other side of the trae? While it's the swap dealers, the so-called Bulletin Banks who borrow gold from central banks and then sell it. It out on the futures market they have a net short position totaling over thirty nine billion dollars. That's the highest it's ever been. They've been betting on the gold price to stabilize, but with every attempt to put a wig on the price appreciation, they create rising interest in the futures market, so with gold, not only have a compelling metro backdrop the plumbing of the gold market. Indicates that there could be a genuine run on billion if all of these bullying banks have to cover their short positions at the same time should be an interesting few months coming ahead for the pet rock and with that. Let's go back to Ashton Ed. Hey, guys, it's Ash, Pennington again the Vision daily briefing. Today's episode is brought to you by blanket blanket..

Ash Bennington Jack Farley Bulletin Banks Ashton Ed Washington Ed Harrison Fed Lynn principal Alden Pennington York GOP
"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

03:28 min | 10 months ago

"ed harrison" Discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

"I'm joined shortly by our managing editor Ed Harrison from Washington, DC, but first Nick Carreira with the day stories, thanks early on Tuesday morning you leaders settled on seven hundred fifty billion euro. Corona Virus Recovery Package, which allows for the European Commission to undertake borrowing on capital markets for the first time. French President Emmanuel macron held this moment as a historic day for Europe as the blocks, economic union becomes more tightly interview oven. After four days of intense negotiations, the blocks longest summit in twenty years. German chancellor. Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Macron the negotiations driving duo scaled-back grants, being offered to three hundred ninety billion euros with the remaining three, hundred sixty billion is loans initially Brussels had proposed five hundred billion euros in the form of grants. You leaders also agreed on next seven-year budget worth one point zero seven four trillion euros altogether it makes a spending package worth one point, eight trillion euros or two point six trillion US dollars, even though the terms of the recovery package are not what Brussels originally hoped for European leaders appear to be very satisfied with the outcome with some even referring to the blocks Hamiltonian moment..

Chancellor Angela Merkel Emmanuel macron Brussels Nick Carreira chancellor European Commission Ed Harrison managing editor DC US Washington Europe