35 Burst results for "ECB"
Europe gets new blast of stimulus to counter virus surge
"The European central bank is on the east another six hundred billion dollars as a stimulus to counteract the negative effects of crime virus some pre Christmas sales went to such an infection shut down large parts of the European economy ahead of the region's most important holiday ECB president Christine Lagarde said something was needed to help certain sectors of the economy in the manufacturing sector continues to hold up well services activity is being severely curbed by the increase in infection rates the new restrictions on social interaction and mobile the twenty five member governing council decided to increase its bond purchase stimulus to two point two trillion dollars the bond purchases help keep credits affordable and available across the economy for consumers businesses and governments I'm Karen Thomas
ECB hints at more stimulus in December as new coronavirus lockdowns are imposed
"A second wave of coronavirus infection sweeps across Europe, the European Central Bank said a strong signal that it could increase its monetary stimulus in December to try to cushion the economic shock from a new series of lockdowns. Analysts fear lockdowns in France and Germany could push the region's two biggest economies into contraction and the fourth quarter.
ECB addresses stronger euro, says it will ‘carefully monitor’ exchange rate
"Currency traders are preparing for a key meeting at the which has seen the euro appreciate heavily over the past few months especially after the Fed signaled a willingness to allow inflation to overshoot its target. The dovish stance which gives more weight to the labor market and less weight to inflation has added to the downward pressure on the US dollar and the E CB's Christine Lagarde is expected to talk down the euro as much as she can normally a central bank would cut interest rates to deal with this kind of situation but rates are already deeply negative across the eurozone instead the May stress that the one point thirty, five, trillion, euro envelope of the P P P pandemic emergency purchase program is not a ceiling and that it is prepared to increase its pace and size.
The ECBs Former Vice-President Explains The Historic Step That Europe Just Took
"True CEOS thinking we don't really talk that much about Europe these days. I mean, I guess not in relation to the the heady days of the eurozone debt crisis. Now we don't, but also I feel like this particular crisis at least some of our episodes, you know, obviously, we talk a lot in the bed context the US context, of course, know talked about Hong Kong and Asia and Asia supply chains in China and so forth stills like we've focused a little bit less on how this current crisis is playing out in the Europe. Yeah I think that's right I. Guess the implication is that maybe this has been unfair in some respects because there has actually been something very interesting going on in Europe at the moment. Yeah. I mean, for one thing you know there's a good argument to be made Europe at least relative to the US, if not necessarily Asian countries has done a pretty decent job overall of suppressing the virus self and you know for years during the euro area crisis, they're always people fiscal policy. Fiscal Policy Missing. You gotta spend more gotTa get the Germans to spend more and you know maybe this time it looks like they're actually doing. Yeah that's exactly what I was thinking. So we have the announcement of a big deal seven, hundred, fifty, billion euros worth by the EU to fund on long term recovery. Fund for the Eurozone and that's a big deal because as you point out, everyone's been talking about fiscal stimulus but it looks like the euro-zone is finally going ahead and doing it. Right and so this of course raises questions and it's a theme that we've definitely had a lot on on our podcast, which is, is this offer something bigger for the post-crisis period? So sports, it's well known that know there's a lot of money being spent by governments all around the world including the US. But the question mark is okay when the crisis phase is over the government's just retrench or does this become a sort of new macroeconomic stabilization model? That's a theme that we've had dozens of times but it's particularly important to New York, in context I think because people have sort of identified the lack of fiscal burden sharing his sort of a basic architectural tension or flaw within. Euros. Yeah I think that's exactly right. How does the I don't want to say the intrusion of fiscal stimulus but how does the arrival of fiscal stimulus on the scene actually reshape the way that monetary policy works and I? Guess we should also mention that the is also in the midst of a of another really important project which is rethinking. How it targets inflation. So we have all of this going on simultaneously real existential questions for the role of the European Central Bank. Absolutely well, I'm very excited. We have a fantastic guest to talk about all of this we are going to be talking with Vito comes don. So he is the former vice president of the European Central Bank from two thousand, Ten may twenty eighteen. He's now a professor at Navarra University in Madrid out the perfect guest to discuss all this. So without further ado, let's bring him in a veto. Thank you very much for joining us. So are you happy to not being a policymaker in this time or you? Do Miss being at the ECB during such an extraordinary moment. Well, it's always difficult to get out of you know executive responsibilities and I. Of course, I would not say that I, am Epi at the out or unfortunate circumstances of the covy. The shock we are again in a very important periods of policy making but. Me Europe as been doing well I think in these episodes. Better than in the previous episode of two, thousand. Ten to two thousand twelve. Just to start out with walking the significance of the deal that was agreed, this seven, hundred, hundred, billion euros you tweeted about it clearly, you think it's important. What's the significance. Well it establishes for president that are very meaningful. In, the first place it involves a decision to issue common European depth. The Commission will issue seven hundred and fifty billion of debt to fund these program, and that's the first. The second the point is that these is going to be distributed in the form of budget transfers and not loans to the country's. Third IT'S A big program to implement Wat- is a European fiscal policy stimulus to address a recessionary phase. India to be an economy, and that's also the first time that these happens at this level and fourth the distribution of the ballot transfers which. Correspond to a little more than half of the seven hundred and fifty billion is done in a way that it is not proportional to the size of each country. By two indeed benefits more the countries that's have lower level of leaving and higher unemployment. So there is a convergence play. There is solidarity aspect of these edits also quite new in terms of transfers to give you two examples on a proportional basis, Italy would be entitled to fifty billion, but the they are getting eighty billion. Right as Germany, you'll be entitled to ninety six billion in proportional terms, but is getting only twenty seven. So these four points put together constitute the indeed very important precedents and babs, and do we all hope so that it will be a sign of things to happen. If again, there will be a stressful situation in the European economy, and that's a very important element for everyone the notion that when there is a very stressful social economic situation Europe, steps up and two x decisions to fight the recession and does not leave behind any of the member countries. It's a big message for the future and I think markets are really beginning to injury injuries what these means And we see that already but it will take time of course, perhaps for the markets by Geico anglo-saxon markets to overcome. Lingering, doubts about the European project.
ECB set to expand bond-buying to soak up debt
"Let's get an update now on some of the day's business stories with you in pots from Bloomberg you and welcome back to monocle twenty four the European Central. Bank is expected to take more action tomorrow, and they'll be new coronavirus virus measures from Christine Lagarde. And hopes of a swift recovery will be downplayed. Yes, of course, the issue be one of the world's central banks, which took very rapid action back in March to counter some of the terrible economic effects. We're seeing from the current arsenal around from the measures taken to counter the current of ours. They announced the pandemic emergency purchase, program or pet. Back in March which involved seven hundred and fifty billion euros of the bond buying? The idea that the central bank step into by that and keeping rates low, the government's the companies and also for Boris with mortgages, etc, that going until at least June twenty twenty one but the expectation. In the market is, the will be more announced tomorrow. Columnists seem pretty certain. ATP will wait in with more stimulus smart at its current pace, it could wait until it's July or September meeting before judging the programs big enough to soak up over debt, being issued by governments defy the recession, and of course there is a lot of depth baby shoot. At the moment since last meeting, we've heard from the European Union moving closer towards a Common Fiscal Response the commission saying he wanted to spend seven hundred fifty billion euros with its Recovery Fund, but as to the tomorrow reckon we'll get at least another two hundred fifty billion dollars of stimulus taking the program to at least not one trillion euros at so tell us a little bit more about economic picture around Europe given the fact that this huge amount of stimulus is needed unlikely. Yes I told him this morning. We're going to get the pay date. So the coaching index is the most timely economic survey we have. We get the figures the May This morning. I'm about nine o'clock, and we're expecting that number to jump to thirty point five. Not just explain what that means. Fifty is the guy is the between expansion and contraction iron, fifty expansion, obviously no economies and you're spending at a moment in April that was thirteen point six. The lowest reading with ever seen toback think in May will jump to about thirty, so that's a lot better than April's reading but he's still pretty terrible. It's actually puts us back in line. Awfully what we saw in March when economies shrank pretty badly around European Union still. About the shape of the recovery. In the beginning or passing my have a v-shaped recovery with the economy bouncing back very quickly. Not many people think that any more more likely will get You even less missing. l-shaped recovery or Nike swoosh or some other recovery which is uncertain and quite wobbly over the rest. Of this year, but it's a little bit of optimism. Coming back into commerce forecasts in the past couple of weeks, I'm certainly markets. Very Optimistic Sense Gotcha will be enough to rescue. The flailing economies around the world
German court asks ECB to justify key stimulus program
"Europe the ECB is being defiant in the face of a German court ruling which questioned its bond buying program the ECB's pledging to continue doing everything necessary to revive inflation in a statement to the ECB also noted that Europe's top court had previously said that its QB program was legal the German court is giving the central bank three months to prove its asset purchase programme does comply with the law meanwhile the C. B. isn't the only monetary authority being challenged on the legality of its crisis measures in Sweden the Riksbank is defending its right to buy corporate bonds the big banks general counsel says that it is home for Sweden's parliament to claim that the bank doesn't have the legal right to purchase debt issued by
ECB President's horror eurozone prediction: EU risk crisis not seen in UK for a century
"The head of the European central bank has warned that the corona virus pandemic has cools the eurozone economy to shrink to rates never seen before Christine Lagarde told reporters it could contract by as much as twelve percent this year we are facing an economic contraction of the magnitude and speed that is unprecedented in recent history in our area entire sectors of the economy to a large extent was simply shut down and it will continue to be reflected the hard numbers are just beginning to calm preliminary figures have already shown he you economic growth falling at a rate of more than three percent in the first quarter of twenty twenty when lockdown measures that only recently begun
ECB to Judge If Trillion-Euro Stimulus Is Enough
"Despite today's data showing the damage corona virus has done to the euro-zone economy in the first quarter European shares. Are Little changed now. The focus turns to the European Central Bank. It's so far pledged more than one trillion dollars in support but chief Christine Lagarde has said there are no limits to the tools the e C could use to fight the crisis. I N G is Karston. Bresca explains when more measures could be deployed. I think they'll have to announce something soon not necessarily today. 'cause we now have two six extremely exciting week since the last meeting with lots of announcements new. Q. E. The pandemic emergency program and I think right now is the moment to take stock and then wait until the June meeting will also bring the latest around a forecast and to that point second quarter data could arguably be worse than the first quarter data. We're seeing today. The has been crystal clear that government support through fiscal spending measures needs to be bolstered. Ten governments do more. Governments can definitely do more. Interest rates are extremely low. There is lots of loans being made available for for governments. They are territories in the north. East we can still do something. Warmness is to to calm. Financial markets and the other one is to provide ample liquidity into the banking sector. That banks are able and willing to provide them nose to the read economy. Well no the latest. Ecb policy decision at seven forty. Five eastern time I N G chief economist Karston Brodsky. Thanks so much for your time. You're welcome well. As officials work to combat the economic impact of covert nineteen hopes arising here in the UK for Corona virus vaccine to prevent more people from getting sick pharmaceutical giant. Astrazeneca has signed a deal with Oxford University to produce and distribute a drug as the BBC's Stephen Ryan reports. The vaccine is still in the early development and testing stages and there's no guarantee but the UK's Health Secretary Matt. Hancock said today the new agreement between Oxford and AstraZeneca gives the UK the best chance of a breakthrough to defeat this corona virus. Several hundred people have so far taking part in clinical trials at Oxford University. But Sir John Bell a professor of Medicine says scaling up so enough doses can be manufactured. Has Its challenges the vials that you put the vaccine in. There's only two hundred million dollars left in the world now because they've all been sucked up by various people who can anticipate a vaccine coming along so so there's lots of challenges in getting this to work
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I guess my question for you is is this massive bond buying program that the ECB announced what markets were looking for well it's certainly part of what markets are looking for but I don't think markets fully know what they are looking for I think they want to see that the central banks have a willingness to give them unlimited tools and that of course means that central banks need to be exploring and considering even more experimental non a Terry policy tools so yes bond buying is very very important but I think markets would release respond positively to the notion that central banks may be considering things like helicopter money that really can impact individual households in the midst of a crisis would not be something that would come on the fiscal side I'm actually Hey it could come either way it could come from central banks keep in mind that that is the idea behind a helicopter money is quite amorphous it was just an idea that was thrown out a few decades ago so it's really not that dissimilar to QB I keep in mind large scale asset purchases which is an academic theory back in the nineteen sixties utilized by one central bank in the early two thousands in a very small way and of course and then became the the weapon does your during the global financial crisis so it's funny how things can evolve and especially that which doesn't have a lot of structure or rules around it can be interpreted in different ways I think this is the time to be exploring extraordinary monetary policy tools are you seeing any hints given the extraordinary moves we've already seen from central banks that they might be thinking that way are is are there potential risks to such an extraordinary mo well there are risks to any kind of experimental monetary policy let's take a negative interest rates certainly when central banks said began utilizing negative interest rates as a tool they didn't know what the unintended consequences would be you only find that out as you use it but at the same time you will still find out the efficacy of a tool unless you use it and course we learned that Q. E. was effective at least in terms of impacting asset prices in terms of negative rates of course Europe in particular is found itself in a trap of negative interest rates that it's had trouble getting out of even before this current crisis took place is that kind of what could be potentially holding central banks back from considering something like helicopter money or something even more extraordinary oh absolutely and of course the bankers tend to be traditionalists however I do hold out hope for the ECB given that Christine Lagarde is a nontraditional leader of the central bank thank I do believe that desperate times call for at least considering desperate measures what's interesting about helicopter money is if it came from a central bank it would likely be in response to the fact that governments haven't provided enough fiscal stimulus I think that's the crux of the lot of the lack of confidence in markets hi is this ex expectation at least in the U. S. that the government will not provide enough fiscal stimulus I think that's a common problem certainly we've heard dental Max bankers bemoan that for years course the a number that's being bandied about now in the U. S. is another one point three trillion dollar stimulus measure you thinking that's not enough for this idea that perhaps the U. S. could take equity positions in companies again that that might not be enough either well certainly a combination of things might be enough but each of those measures on their own would fall short in terms of I think what markets are looking for they don't want one does is that they want multiple doses as your last minute here China reported no new infections at least today does that give you a sense of where recovery on this side of the world could come oh absolutely what I have been saying since this crisis has begun is that this is not like the global financial crisis in that we don't have a play book to get out we actually do have a playbook it's a three pronged approach it's providing the appropriate health policy in other words a really stringent measures to control the contagion I'm number two adequate fiscal stimulus in number three adequate monetary stimulus and that's a playbook of that we've seen in China there on the other side of this and that gives me a lot of hope that if the US does things right it can be sooner rather than later let's hope so in D. Kristina Hooper chief global market strategist at invesco thanks again for being with us this morning on Bloomberg daybreak morning in which we may be looking for some direction after all the central bank moves right now S. and P. futures a lower by ten points Dow futures down.
Europe's central bank launches new program to calm markets
"That will the ECB late on Wednesday night and I'll say seven hundred and fifty billion euro bond buying program for both public and private sector securities including Greek government debt this as a straight is all be a cut interest rates this morning and stimulus from governments around the world is now reach one point nine trillion dollars and counting well joining us now is the best cross asset team added such a wonderful singer who's been following the markets for us radius we've been on this wild and unpredictable fight on the C. B. frauds what do you markets make of it that it seems have reacted that's positively what's included in the program well the main issue is that markets are just really looking for more there is one person who said basically nothing would be enough this week and that's a little bit fatalistic by it you know it we have now one point nine trillion we had somebody earlier saying they wanted to see more than twenty trillion total in terms of stimulus so the ECB is coming out and doing its thing the the reserve bank of Australia did some new measures this study even started a money market mutual fund liquidity vehicle but it's it's still just not enough enough and there's still so much uncertainty which at the broader picture here of we still need to be looking at the virus cases how the containment goes how the economy is fair schedule now you mention it was about the OB I will start the expecting into the use of the Philippine central bank action really stepping up but this is the the the the indeed what everything actually make any difference really well that's the thing that's the tricky right even with these cuts some people are actually saying that if you cut too much then you get to a point where liquidity is actually stretched even thinner depending on the mechanics of it and people are really looking for the physical side of things that the physical fight is also tricky because that house they go through the process and you know you also have the issue of if you're getting a margin call now even if there's a headline saying ECB is going to do this that's not helping you as you need to make your margin call right so there is there is still a lot of things that have to go through the system and that's not necessarily able to reassure markets that much right at the moment yeah I suppose my question is does that change in maybe a week or two weeks time when things become more apparent with the code of ours output and the knows that there's a massive contrast between actually what China is doing the PPO see far fewer cuts than the fed did not score a lot of people's attention just briefly right yeah that's interesting and to answer your first point yes of course as we go along as we get more information as we see how this plays out hopefully in the next week or two we will start to get clarity will start to see your cases in your cases in the U. S. but it also depends on the type of reports we get if we are seeing more clusters are foreseen containment but yeah then from there I mean it's there's just so much still to and to be dealt with and how the economy is will come back and that there are a lot of question
European Central Bank says it will buy 750 billion euros in securities this year to counter effects of virus outbreak
"Meanwhile the European central bank has launched an emergency bond buying programme worth seven hundred fifty billion year is at present Christine Lagarde says quite extraordinary times require extraordinary action adding there are no limits to the ECB's commitment to the euro the central bank is also considering basing itself impose security
Snapshot of the Global Stock Market
"Thirty minutes in the equity market open here in Europe we started quite firmly in the green wood coming off the high so a little bit for European equities up a tenth of a cent on the stoxx six hundred looking across regional equity benchmarks some of these now turning into the red footsie one hundred down six tenths of a percent the CAC forty index unchanged the ibex lower by five tenths of percent the footsie maybe the red by four tenths of a percent European equities following the pattern of what the U. S. is doing yesterday we saw a rally a four percent on the S. and P. five hundred the market reacting much will positively to the Congress spending bill to the tune of almost eight billion dollars than it did to fed rate cuts it suggests that equity markets perhaps like the idea of physical or combination of best sets on monetary policy but U. S. futures in the red now more firmly in the retina yet Dow S. and P. and nasdaq futures all dialed up by more than one percent we saw green on the screen in Asia that might have been a bit of a catch up to the Asian session the ten year treasury yields down four basis points one of one handle on vast and looking across the curve you seen yields full across the treasury curve five a two year yields down five basis points to sixty five handle thirty a yield of one sixty five down five basis points to two stents code has been steepening for nine days though that's about that some more rate cuts from the fed and speaking all bets around rate cuts will the market is pricing for the ECB and the bank of England to cut an emergency cut from the bank of England the ten year gilt yields hit a record low yesterday was up a basis point and a half now on a thirty eight handle the ten year bond yield up a basis point to negative sixty three some say woody not long until we get to a fresh record low on that ten year bond yield taking a look across affects the yen is the best performing currency out of G. ten so that is big safe haven bid the power went up two tenths of percent of under performance in CAD we did get that rate cut from the bank of Canada she looking at commodities oil coming off the high from the Asian session but still slightly in the green WTI forty six ninety E. six Brent at fifty one thirty nine and gold up a quarter of a percentage point one thousand six hundred and forty one dollars
How Will Virus Risks Affect Central Banks?
"Meanwhile let's also talk about central banks and actually what's priced in this year for the fed to be a week and the ECB unit in the context of coronavirus the dust is settling a little bit off to the big moves yesterday so what are we talking about when it comes to central banks well when I say Caroline is a price action in the rates markets in recent weeks have been have been driven by a huge flight to safety and yesterday saw what I would call a material intensification of that move so I guess here's where we stand in terms of central back pricing that is fed easing expectations have risen sharply fed funds futures now price to fully price to twenty five basis point cuts this year and traders actually starting to price a third in some there's just under sixty basis points of cumulative using price by the end of the year with the timing of the first cut now expected in June and then for the C. B. zero S. market now prices in about eight basis points even by year end so it's not quite a full ten basis points rate cut priced but the probability has inched higher and did and did get a little bit of momentum yesterday and then if you look at the the bank of England sterling ask prices in just over twenty five basis points to be easing by year end but another thing that I've known about the hearing aids market that was interesting is that the ten year gilt yields closed yesterday at zero point five four percent now that's back below the level seen before CGG vis resignation as chancellor of the exchequer at that time it was fear of potentially expansive fiscal policy you keep driving AFP gilt yields and we've not really witnessed that so far it's a global considerations to move you keep on market more than domestic drivers and I think that will probably continue to be the case in the coming weeks
European Central Bank keeps interest rates, stimulus programs on hold, launches review of strategy
"Yes the ECB is announcing its first appraisal of its inflation goal since two thousand three leaving its main refinancing rate unchanged at zero percent this is largely or completely expected leave the deposit facility rate unchanged also negative zero point five percent they say that the C. B. says that it sees a rates are present or low levels until inflation goal it gets nearer meanwhile we're seeing means inflation expectations over the next five to ten years covering a one point three percent versus more close to two percent as it is saying also the easy be announcing its first to teach a review of policy since two thousand three widely expected given the fact they have a reprieve they have an opening you have a manufacturing data coming in a little bit more solid so they can actually take this time to take a step back also we are expecting the inflation goal perhaps to change a little bit in its guidance from where it is right now in markets you're not seeing much of a response basically the euro out little changed versus the dollar I just a little bit weaker versus the dollar two year yields basically flat but really the key thing John and Tom as you were saying is really Christine Lagarde and what she has to say in this press conference whether she'll talk about possibly buying green lawns for the ECB's balance sheet whether she'll talk about how they plan to add the ammunition if inflation does not meet their goals as well as just the outlook going forward again not much of a change but we are going to hear a lot more when Christine Lagarde gets to the
European Central Bank holds rates, launches policy review
"Now in more news European central bank president Cristina god is set to launch a broad based strategy review today because of the governing council concludes its policy meeting Bloomberg reported Petrus golly Maskey has the preview now from front first the card is expected to launch the ECB strategic review and the governing council concludes its policy meeting on Thursday there anything will focus on the assessment of the inflation goal and promises to take a deep dive into new challenges such as climate change and digital currencies it's a good moment to reflect the year's owns a condom has brightened enough for the ECB to keep its makes of negative rates and quantitative easing in place for the foreseeable future in Frankfurt this cutting off steam coming they break
BOJ raises GDP forecast but keeps policy unchanged
"Ha thought about central banks is the P. B. O. J. can't policy on saints and pay the brighter picture of the economic outlook signaling the prospect of additional stimulus have been reduced the central bank maintained its target for both interest rates and as the purchases in its latest decision focus now turns to the ECB on Thursday along with the key fed and B. O. E. decisions
New European Central Bank chief holds her first rate meeting
"Thank you up next we get a policy decision from the European central bank plus Christina guards first press conference as president analysts expect no change the policy but the guard could face questions about how to deliver more stimulus with rates already in negative territory Paul sheared is a senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School when the central bank is running low on interest rates ammunition that is a surefire sign that the time has come to bring in fiscal policy not in a temperate basis but you know to help monetary policy out and for the two of them to work together in the same direction until it's mission accomplished the guard and former president Mario Draghi have both pressed for additional government spending the guards communication will be closely watched today after a career as a lawyer and politician she's the first ECB leader to have never worked as a
Stocks dip as tariff deadline approaches
"But we continue to see a little bit of weakness in the equity market volume though he is on the light side with trading right now the S. and P. five hundred about twenty percent below the thirty day average and within the broader market the S. and P. is down two tenths of one percent weakness here being led by the utility stocks also seeing a dip in some of the health care names along with info tech shares on the positive side some of the consumer staples shares benefiting and the consumer discretionary stocks pushing higher as well the Dow is off about three tenths of one percent and for the nasdaq composite of decline that is a little bit greater than two tenths of one percent so even though we have thin trading today the week ahead is brimming with potential catalyst we've got two key central bank meetings the fed and the ECB and then they're on top of that is this looming deadline in the US China trade war and the question of whether or not the U. S. on Sunday will go ahead with the planned increase in tariffs now earlier today agriculture secretary Sonny Perdue was saying the U. S. is unlikely to
Trump Warns Trade Talks With China May Last Past 2020 Election
"A let's talk a bit about trade in the markets this morning so I've been twenty four hours president Donald Trump is issue to series of trade threats on three continents it's a reminder to financial markets that the president is comfortable heading into an election year using tariffs as his main source of international economic leverage but as our next guest points out without a trade truce and a US China trade deal the global economy is headed for recession will joining us now is in the test saw who is director of research at wisdom tree very good morning to the test that is not the sort of base case for most the the global economy goes into recession next year but it is for you is that right whoa oh base case is that we could could get some trade deal done because of the presidential election but to yesterday's comments and comments we frequently heard of last few months personal risk on to that so we think that the risk of going into a recession is very high and and we believe that we were started slipping into recession we can see that international trade has slipped considerably global patch the minis indices while they may have patted the little last couple of months but they've been heading south in the below the fifty marker of Dimock demarcation between the construction and expansion so we think that you know do the comments made yesterday and and and and in the months before really increase the risk of recession by many fold is it also part of the mold of the global tariff issue because it's not just China those Atari problem with Donald Trump is threatening massive tariffs on France but also because the Harris on Brazil and Argentina I mean it seems to be among the many fronts this trade worn is that part of the engine which is driving what you're talking about absolutely so you know it started off with primarily a US China trade will but if the reason the success in in trump actually of protecting the did you S. from Chinese imports than that blueprint will be deployed elsewhere we've seen a lot of that this week the terrorists on metals from Argentina Brazil because he's unhappy with their currency policies is hope trump tools and hot I'm happy with the tax policies it in in the on the side of it every year end within days within Europe and he may you that increase terrorists here as well so this punitive tariffs applied relive the place ain't on top of sanctions will re knows our players he wrong in Venezuela so they did the number of protectionist policies or increasing by many fold yeah so protectionism is a is a significant concern but did you think the markets have been there for much too complacent overseas becoming now increasingly difficult actually to price trade war especially when he sees you to becoming so widespread possibly so the impact of these trade wars has probably been a manufacturing so many factions being weak globally but the consumer in the labor market been holding up pretty well and on a global basis not just in the US but in Europe as well but that may not last forever as you know that there will come a point where a slowdown in manufacturing could bleed into the rest of the economy if if the presidential election is will the way to the back end of twenty twenty even if there is a last minute Catholics to get something done it may happen too late and that's why I think the risk of a global recession is pretty high at this point what about the European aspect of that because of the low to focus on to the German dates of French staters well and Italian a sense that we need some sure really where this is moving in European terms we have a new head of the C. B. of course is trying to move towards a whole review of that policy in trying to keep things together what's your take on Europe going into twenty twenty yes I think it you your pet will be a particular interesting area because we will return to we know that interest rates or negative in Europe so the ECB's policy space is very limited we have to think a lot more you know creatively in terms of what he does for a in terms of reaching into his toolbox we know the quantitative easing when deployed previously had been criticized heavily for you know being a set price re re re face rather than goods and service press refresh rate so I think could easily be will respond to some of those criticisms at the same time the European Commission is under new leadership as well and DC be under new leadership of the Christine Lagarde who is a politically astute leader I think that that they'll be a time for creative thinking and that could involve money tree in fiscal institutions becoming closer together even in Germany which is being very very against you know anything beyond interest rate policy you know we are seeing political change there as well the eight SPD are pushing for towards abolishing the zero black policy of balanced budgets if we start seeing that those cogs move we could start to see the ECB and Los number fiscal stations across Europe becoming closer together yeah me seventy seven is dedicated in the pipeline at least if not longer so you yeah we'll have to see but you're a fun as Mrs also meeting today to discuss kind of reforming the year every year and and the banking unit of but it just also want to get your take on a pet because thought it was a pop the more immediate issue folk markets and we've had already put mixed signals about whether we get a get further cuts to output say if Iraq's oil minister speaking saying that they would want to diesel cut of four hundred thousand barrels per day to offset slowing Dimond I mean a lot of other say that does not seem likely that sent out live voice you've taken it is yes Sir it's good it's clear that the opac at least need to extend current cuts that that's a baseline to wed at least to the middle of next year until they have the next policy meeting so I think the okay to keep the policy taking over by sort of mid policy even media policy meetings but beyond that I think the reason a strong incentive to cut even further because we'll prices all extremely weak at this point in time and they're not working knowledge in some of the geopolitical risks but that not seen as something that okay call really could control but the it's hard to for these OPEC countries to expand their topics into it in into the oil fields in an environment of low we call prices one of the top of that Saudi Arabia is just about to float it's a it's a another company a Saudi Aramco and it needs a stronger role of prices for the food to meet its valuations I know he's already notes down these valuations of two one point five two will play seven trillion away from to treat him before but is we embarrassing to go for something even lower than that so Saudi Arabia as a de facto head of OPEC will be pushing all members for deeper cuts alright miss ash thanks very much indignities show the director of research and
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Its slump that could add to the ecb president's argument when he pushes back against some ecb officials lobbying for a change to policy guidance joining us in the london studio is a deny qiriaka polo head of research at aum faith the official monetary and financial institutions forum good morning to you deny great to have you with us this morning so i sort of red out the intro to one of our bloomberg newsstories stories ahead of the ecb meeting it today all we going to see caution for mario draghi or could that be any sort of tweaks to language out of this meeting good morning narra the ecb has been facing a euro area economy in europe boom mode for the past year intensifying the pressure on these to be to start slowly exiting a stimulus program it's already scaled down the pace of its monthly acid purchases so any change we see today's about its forward guidance what happens beyond september how gradually or quickly it scales down its support for the economy i think the the risks in the euro area commie are on the downside after what we saw in the weekend with italian elections will so the trade wars that you mentioned so i think we'll see more caution from mario draghi than any tweaks in language blue bug economics says the to emerge organ company are likely to wait until june before they sought tweaking that language do you agree with them then i think so i think it these acb is in a waitandsee mode especially given the recent developments also it's in the spotlight again in terms of questions arising its independence and independence of individual national banks around the eurosystem we've seen cases in latvia in greece also with the appointment of the vice president and appointments in the more widely this is pretty dc be in the spotlight so in terms of policy thing it's much more in a in a waitandsee mode um you've said that you see the risk to the downside for the euro zone what does that mean when september comes round will we see a short taper how soon afterwards could we actually get a rate rise i think we will see a continued tapering to bring their monthly purchases down to zero by probably the end of.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A result of that the risk off trade so it's been this talk of war between stocks and bonds and so that's why the big question going forward is is is where treasury yields will go because it a lot of ways that dictates how other markets will react it's always i run into me the goodnewsisbadnews but the the other irony here for me was that of the markets seemed to be telling chairman powell i don't wanna hear your personal opinion well that's a lot of it to i mean i think that they got used to fed chair janet yellen was very vague and cautious wa when she was speaking at anytime you know wouldn't make any sort of off head remarks but you know you hear from powell who is in an economist you know he's a banker by trade and he was a bit more i think blogs about this is my opinion i think this is what's going on meal maybe others feel the same way and all of a sudden markets are say well we got to start pricey and maybe four fed rate hikes this year not just three which that will be the most rate hikes a year in in quite some time even three last year was extremely fast four would be would raise shortterm yields especially quite a bit find you mentioned the ecb before and mariel dragging how have the ecb his moves than affecting the us market the ecb is is really important and to a lesser extent the boj but mostly the ecb because a lot of what's baked into the bond market's reaction so far this year two straight months of of pretty pretty aggressive selling is the fact that the ecb is going to get on board with with the feds for doing for awhile now which is tightening the ecb is still stimulative still sort.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In london ben good morning and welcome sounds like a simple question but how you feeling nar the markets out of the woods yet or are they haven't coupled seeing the force for the trees i think i think it's with that come on right you said market struggling for direction today i think it's been troop pretty much of the home mmhmm um when we look at the well we think that growth is good everyone knows that earnings growth is good everyone they found volatility is come slightly that's okay that's normal a normal market uh moves around quite law 2017 with an operation not the norm box we just have to walk out a the price is telling us the money is telling us to invest is a pretty unser i think the way you put it to us earlier is is the markets are more inflationary than growth the after all this this time thinking inflation would remain short of targets how concerning are these signs of rising inflation according to a you know own i didn't rising inflation would be a good thing we've been looking for it for years and years and years but i think losing a little bit of a change in the sense when we started to gear very very bullish on great consensus was for spectacular growth across well he comes off just a little bay the direction of the narrative changes to growth not quite as good as we expect inflation expectations the rising in i potentially dangerous combination of mocking start pricing in central bank movement above and beyond what we've seen so far so you know i'm i'm quite conscious to inflation data can be very very volatile you can see temporary impact the people might well react to them that account above the european central bank's governing council's meeting last month she'll do the central bank is yet ready to remove uh the pledge to extend his thumb buying program if needed a where is the ecb had it right now i think the bomb buying program that they've got the leeway to keep it in place until autumn i suspect that will do that but they've not rocking the boat around mm probably mon tape fourtime people will be looking more for an indication.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"America we focus on on treasuries the most but there's a lot going on in european fixedincome markets as well and while everybody knows that the fed has been trying to move to a tighter policy for some time now the ecb is really still very much adding more stimulus to the system and perhaps that that's the central bank that that we need to watch more closely at the moment because they're probably the one that has a more influential move because it's not a similar pattern which the fed is going to do this is a new regime that the ecb is going to move into way to that again what do you mean so the ecb is still adding liquid out nightmare their balance sheet now meanwhile the economy is growing very very strong renison syms to numbers today yeah and and yet they they have a promise that they're not going to sell layoff guys you don't make that change well yeah i mean wh why have you committed yourself to 12 months into the future which is namely that they're not going to stop their balance sheet built until september and then it will be quote unquote quite some time after that before interest rates move higher now they're still negative right so so i think there's a ways to go when when we look at valuation treasuries are actually much closer to fair value than european bonds are at the moment on okay we so you're things see a sell off in european bonds still yes and so what are you what are you do to position yourself as cas with the moves of this week depending on her expectations for future valuations you sell no chance take advantages and things you did before for example if you thought the mark was going to continue solve until we see a traitor change in bonn pricing in the us but you're saying we're near fair value that would suggest the time to sell bonds is over while i think from evaluate headed by banzon and have cycled is over while w we we look at the bond market we look at a variety of different things i mentioned valuation we look at momentum factors as well we look at some mean reversion factors i think all of those are very very important agreement at the mall meant none of them are telling us that old boy let's let's go all in at to.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"1130 our studio new york city hike kathleen hike here are i hope you are nice long weekends i think i think the bomb market my still be waking up seems mostly today the trade is driven off of the dollar and stocks we got the benchmark 10year now up one 30second thirty here is up nine thirty seconds the 10year yield at two point five four and we had that jumped up to two point eight towards the end of the week now we've got the third year two point eight three so maybe the new range for uh the 10year is something like two point five o to two point six looking at it very narrowly what's going on today well two things stocks had record surged than they pulled back and i think the fact stocks pulled back is one of the reasons that little bit of money buying on the uh the bond side also dollar weakening a bit that's also apparently been one of the reasons people have been boosting bonds a bit couple of interesting sort of news points un's v men who is the head of the bundesbank a ecb council member one of more hawkish one saying it's reasonable not to see a rate hike by the ecb till the middle of 2019 so i don't think anybody was expecting much before then any way but there has been a lot of back and forth after a poor last week that uh in in some comments from ecb officials a suggesting that maybe they're a little bit closer to making an announcement that they're going to be reducing their bond purchases no big move but i think some focus on that finally there's a couple of stories that i think are worth having on your radar screen because one of them is clearly among the most red today by both ler anna genus mallik taking a look at inflation the fact that this is the year when a lot of uh a lot of investors are getting more nervous about inflation rising because a lot of companies are from the games and pay raises twenty and fifty states are boosting their minimum wage and then another one in more about bond supply carol that's kind of off in the future but it's kind of hang over the bond market now people waiting for the most debt issuance by the us government since their cory since here's the.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"End the extent to which the the europe plays into this right now one eight teams sixty night against the us dollar if that you did go higher does that the cloud the economic forecasts i mean if it went significantly higher yes currently i would say the euro's strength is rather a symptom of the you recovering european economy and certainly if they you strong economy in the call i mean purchasing power parity to the us dollar would be something around one thirty and i think as a as long as as as the as it stays below one twenty are around 120 of this is something that will not stop the eurozone economy it when the ecb stops its extraordinary monetary stimulus release signals that it's about to uh can you maintain things there in germany and the there will be an impact on the euro zone and certainly on the german economy but the ecb does this very very slowly so it seems that you know the the back winds from monetary policy would continue for some time of calls wendy e the ecb stops the bond buying the euro appreciation will probably become stronger and that will have a dampening effect but i i wouldn't expect that to have an impact before the end of two eighteen is this the report that you have what really stands out is there any one thing that jumps out jumps of the page for you it is it is certainly the a focus on on manufacturing so manufacturing is strengthening really and that shows us that its exports that are coming now that i pushing the german economy it used to be the case in the past that most upswings started with exports now it's the other way around we have a strong domestic economy and now this is additionally supported by exports something else that stands out is relatively slow wage growth in germany this of further increases competitiveness of german companies but this is something that will probably change next year or so trade unions will demand higher wages so it could be that next year domestic demand will strengthen again we're about to see inflation pickup i think we are so an increasing number of companies are telling us that they intend to increase prices nevertheless so far inflation is relatively low and that's why i.
"ecb" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing
"Apparently a british newspaper that came cambridge knees received a mystery call minutes before the assassination actually took place so apparently a memo to the the fbi revealed that the co co was made an anonymous call to our senior reporter at cambridge news at around six oh five pm on the day of the assassination and they told the reported that they should call the american embassy in london force and big is and then they just hang up so and plenty ride rubber it exactly within half announced that low 25 minutes later the president was shot sunday's ordinary yeah and it's interesting because of secrets to the middle of conspiracy theorists but one wonders if you tallied up all of the crazy crackpot phonecalls ego do they sometimes overlaid with reality all was it some kind of off collecting one one is eleven but certainly intriguing i i've shared yours like the more we know that we whether we learned something of substance and that was certainly fascinating out of me good stories that are definitely conferences with a few of the front page stories this day for us on the briefing let's brown's the business pages next sandra kilholf from bloomberg is here and sandra the euro dipping off to the ecb meeting yes tom said the year is actually fallen one and a half percent against the dollar over the past two days now yesterday the ecb said that its monthly purchases won't be hard to 30 billion years in january and run until september twenty 18 that said they mario draghi that's the ecb president said that white be a sudden end to buying and that the shift shouldn't even be cool tapering to he was really being very dovish mistake me estate but the euro is falling further today because according to officials familiar with discussions at the ecb policymakers are considering halting deep bond buying program by the end of next year so long as the inflation outlook for europe continues to impreza and that comes despite that warning from miodrag esa that the ecb will continue to remain cautious it's a very interesting used and the right.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Purchases will be hard to 30 billion euros in january and ron until at least september even then joggie said that there won't be a sudden end to the buying and the shift shouldn't even be called a tapering in the sesion today for an openended program and may add scillies stops out of the it's not going to stop suddenly we must never be now our our view that these should stop suddenly that was a ecb president mario doggy speaking day yesterday at his media conference we are going to cross over to singapore on singapore now to talk more about the market reaction to what mario draghi had to say west goodman from the markets live team is standing by for us wes great to have you on the show in happy friday to you how have the markets than bend responding to the ecb tapering or is it a print yes happy friday everyone well as i mentioned yesterday the tapering or if you prefer you can say the recalibration you know whatever you want to call it it's not tightening so the ecb cut its bond purchases in half but it's still buying as a result german yields fell in the euro fell it's kind of the opposite of what's happening in the united states where the fed is raising interest rates sold diverging monetary policies explain explain why the dollar rose so much yesterday it had its biggest gain since january and still rising again today all right yeah rule definitely keep an eye on that as you say tapering not tightening on a different topic you'll writing today on the markets love blog that the process of tax reform in the united states is like the colmes show what's the gong show on what's happening with tax legislation that right well david talk men who was ronald reagan's budget director said the process to change the tax code in the us has become wide quote our gong shell for anyone like me who grew up watching television remember that they're gone shell was his crazy tv show where people banged on this gong and now people sort of use the term for anything that's kind of your confused inau all mixed up with the option is that the dollar stocks and corporate bonds have all rallied on hopes that these tax cuts will come through and you know those gains will be.
"ecb" Discussed on AM 920 The Answer
"Mentioned the market's been relatively flat this week we are up a little bit but there's been to events worth mentioning if you talk outside of the us we have article one was 155 one vote by spanish basically says catalonia while you can operate on your own work we enact this article 155 not anymore right right it lose your your ability to operate independently as a nation more or less and they gave the key them some time to say look are you guys really declaring independence will do some time to think this through and they got nothing back so basically the kind of like the overarching interpretation is this is kind of the nuclear option from madrid like right oh of forceful type decision which i think is why we saw some of the pressure overnight because the news broke probably about two a m this morning us we re we've recovered some selling um but i think there's concerns over potential cracks in the eu you're seeing these small little things come through and if if you compare the eu to the united states of course no country comes close to us gdp but if you put it all together is actually larger than us gdp through talking to but a lot of sure and and nommik force and you look at the ecb in in the the kind of a band with that they have to accommodate more than they are right now in the event of some some sort of a dissolution of the eu you know we see these crafts for me absolutely we still i mean what what's the what's the outcome of the brexit we still don't know what type affects that's going to be when it was going to have what it actually happens if you look at the imf came out and they blister gdp forecasts for almost every advanced economy this week with the exception of the uk and spain well to the place where you have the most uncertainty wrote so i that's that's pretty telling right there that being said on a related note china's economy grew by six point eight percent thirdquarter great number they're better than expect than expected and it's somewhat you know alleviates the.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Very wellknown w hike for that he revived people capped at load their unemployment woke up and also would not that buried on inflation i've i looked it revived lowest lighten pop up with the dot they're waddling deduct that took god was along conduct was revived club the 2020 dot which would not have before her starting up in the air the poll cat the timing he was lightly hide in the long run project him react he may hike a little bit more than what's required politically advocate that worried about financial leverage and we the whole can apply an old play the 2017 and 28 doc what reading mccurdy gang comply really but not metairie now i think they're all tom brady picket a mediumterm dollar trended down off we have most potential bike around the world in a much of i'll bet hiding psycho or are even though evening but look hey like the ecb and the bank the over the next year and a dollar uptrend will continue and the weakness in the short term a lot of people gyping rejecting natural have listening and come to december i don't think the fed hike although it became even as of yet today before the fed meeting the one thing that the approach of it more high apply that unquote abullah perhaps in short time but in reality what really will not incline you have people in country and the dollar contemplating strong enough naria it it should be noted that us financial conditions again improved oh overnight and indeed every time the fed raises rates or as they have been raising rates we see financial conditions continue to rise you can see that on the bloomberg f congo f c o n go is a great way to look at that jordan let me ask you about the bank of japan kuroda saying that he doesn't think the bank of japan needs to ease any more in order to reach its inflation target there is still much further away than the ecb or the fed and indeed there was a descent on on the bank of japan board enact in that concern what do you think that means as we see a dollar trade at one yeah it it it is surprising that from a new member cat he depended favoring and she wa lock way inquiry add detail a.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"European equity market is that canoe fallen what asian equities of continued to rally no the road and then the sort of asset allocation principles of change here's the thing will happen we talk about balance sheet unwinding and forget about the complexities involved the bloomberg with me just to take a look at the kind of challenge the ecb gotta be facing tipped the balance sheet g space ptv space 202 nine now that we had a heart attack from all these different colors it's everything from well finetuning reserve opera zero denominated to longterm refinancing operations the key point being there are a lot of blair's to this balance sheet and as it begins to think about how to unwind the question right now for these markets is what level does the euro become a problem for the ecb number would you can it down to yeah i think before we get to that question i think what i would say is that at the moment not even looking unwinding the balance sheet that just looking at reducing tapering the amount of us it purchases that they're doing i think it's very interesting to go back to the shanghai park from february two thousand sixty at that time it seemed to be very obvious that the ecb was very comfortable with the eurodollar being above one fifteen i think what the market is done is is taken some of the statements from being cb and understood that to mean that the european economies really refleeting and i'm not really convinced that the ecb is going to be thinking in in exactly the same way vis vis tapering from the ecb he's coming at a time when it appears that the boj is already taper move yes it purchases that they've been doing for the last four or five running the eighty trillion yen it will be running but forming short even of fourteen trillion yen so that statement from two thousand sixteen where they checked the.
"ecb" Discussed on P&L With Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz
"That's very concerned about dollar strength but not only is uh the us concerned about at the bis and the imf both around these levels have said that the belief the dollar to be 10 to 20 percent overvalued in other words you've got the us and uh you know talking against the ecb no one wants to have a strong currency but i think it's the us is really in the driving seat here in that the euro still is undervalued relative to rent maybe where it should be i think that's probably the 125 level where we get to the dog said you want to get your thoughts on the dollar i just want to stick with these fees one second because to me the implication here is even if this is just jawboning uh jerk reaction on the part of the ecb officials would be to hold benchmark rates lower for longer and to move uh more slowly as far as removing accommodation in order to keep the economy kind of in this place where the euro is sort of stabilized even as a in uh as as the economy grows right i mean 'cause i i don't really see what other moves easy be could take wrote the would have to keep on doing something at a at a greater level them defenders during it now we can look at the federal and are believed that maybe there's one were rate rise this year and certainly the ecb will be raising rates but even if you look at the 10year yield said the us cereals are unchanged from the year attend 10year yields let's say for germany or maybe fifty basis points higher so the yield differentials moving more in the favour of europe than it is in the us and remember when you look at currencies you'll of cap to look at will watch the fed touring versus were key ecb doing the ecb going forward into two thousand nineteen may be going to have beat men in charge veterans much more of a hawk and would like to see rates uh get a little bit higher in the eurozone whereas you may have coned come into the fed in the us whose units being a tough peninsula longerterm brazil looking at the us may be having lower yields for longer and the ecb moving out of the lower yields plus the.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To a year and a half and of course a year and a half ago price inflation was nil so i think to some extent what we're seeing is a sort of echo affect the oil price slump puts them it's also true that some in a wage competition is not global and this cheap labour everywhere and so does a tendency for wage relationships to unemployment to be less lively them before so we've got lower unemployment but we didn't seem dea yet wager wage inflation visit time then for mario draghi to start exp cleaning the taper to the market i mean do you expect that at jackson hall i think that the draghi will probably want to wait for the food ecb meeting in early september to uh to explain his point of view because he's been known to go out ahead of the things with out consultation with old his colleagues on on the ecb council and i'm not sure they necessarily like that all that much room and did this situation he's going to need them plenty of support so how do you think the tapers gonna look i mean do you have any guesses as to how it's going to play out guess forecast is a better within than gas guess we yeah i guess i think guess is probably i'm reasonably accurate foot word for it to him i think we will you know at the moment we're running i think with potentially running of sixty puts them the main point is that it tape is down to zero over a reasonable period and it is an extraordinarily stimulated policy they've got at the moment with negative interest rates and in a well below the rate of inflation of goals as cool inflation is now the one on the co 2 percent and and you you're looking at that together with this massive quantitative quantitative stimulus which i really is is four an economy in real trouble this economy is not in real trouble another noise of any set of deflation so no flooded stood third of deflation here and there's nothing you think they could bring that back well i mean you know if you if you had a global downswing all some sort of war or some stuff like that he has may be but at the moment um there's there's nothing on the horizon in terms of troubling except possibly the italian election next may and.
"ecb" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think the most important variable is that the market is looking at the feds to traditional allies and traditional is mean though only two policy objective stated do mandate employment and inflation look at the fed in that way employment is green in terms of tightening and inflation is somewhere between a yellow flashinglight anywhere but if you bring in third fact and i think that's what the what mock is on the rest of meeting which is concern about future financial stability then this may be a tighter fed than what the markets believe right now let's pick up all the conversation around global monetary policy what the central banks are doing of course fabio sketch of of your wanted this would fund is still with us fabio in terms of what the ecb said lawyer druggie was talking about richard brazil writing a lovely please on the bloomberg pointing out that from the vantage point of the ecb the world looks like an increasingly dangerous place again quoting from the state with downside risks primarily related to global factors continue to exist and yet we saw the year olds strengthen to the highest level since august of 2015 what was your key take away here from what lawyer dry but i would imagine that the president was referring to these leak moustache that will come in the autumn on the reversal of the cue we in the us i then fooled by the same kind of policy in europe mohammad ibn was seeing that we are in a gold at least in the us we this steady growth these growth has been spilling over to europe and some other parts of the world the little bit in china some would in japan so it seems that the fundamentals are slowly improving for the global economy but the big elephant in the room he's this massive monetary stimulus that has been injected india corner me for a decade now and how to reverse the stimulus is.
"ecb" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"That just that the fact that the your shut up so much it was the reason why the ecb leaking that story the day after that may have misinterpreted what they were trying to work to say with draghi speech i don't think that that has been very successful but i do think that that shows that the ecb would like to see a somewhat softer euro moving ahead specially to give inflation room to move the move had for the so we'll well there to jawbone and down i mean is that the only way they can deal with that i think we are go to quite cautious a more cautious ecb its communication moving ahead because i think that that would be quite realistic but it also shows sort of them the split that the ecb is is it right now the difficulty that they're having giving the economy that's running quite well especially if you compare to some of the other events markets but then you see that the actual target indicator inflation is just not moving at his unlikely to move significantly at least for the months ahead when they have to announce that tapering tapering move when i think about how vessel fits into the context of the why the story and the fed is obviously pom ponsolle of this the central banks have to react to the five the fed is is moving ahead can spread just get too big and as a result of which they got a con follow one on between uh on behind perhaps that i think that it's also just about where europe is in the cycle at the moment things are better eight qe was obviously announced to deal with the deflationary pressures that europe was experiencing the back than in 2015 that has faded away draghi is mentioned that that has faded away so he sort of paving the way for that tape bring announcement to come but i do think that at the same time with inflation peaks a week a a he is absolutely right in the second half of that famous now famous interest speech that we're going to need monetary accommodation for quite a while to comes to thank you very much indeed.
"ecb" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"Of investments chassis year that football and put that question to you around moya jogging how much is my jarque's more hawkish stance influencing the market and because we had to eat these these concerns here saying hang on a second jugie speech yesterday was teseney in line with recent ecb policy no more hawkish until what did he make interesting i think we are definitely the stepping away for all the uh the the kind of we'll do whatever it takes era five is going to deservedly so the european economy is looking worthy of that sort of thing on if you look at the various that of as much as the self dangerous the hard data but if you look at the soft patron particularly the german ifo reaching a fresh post reunification high this week generally the eyes of telling the same story corporate profits two two i it's happening and the only thing that's not really coming through just yet is inflationary pressures there is a lot of slack left and the labour market how much is still quite difficult to guess that given sort of you know how whereas narrow in europe the reality is that europe is picking up and the need for kind of emergency monetary policy is now surely lessening and so we should start to see you know the the the ecb move away from its posture all the normal monetary policy story mean for asset prices do you think well i'm in a in a sense is is going to be the bond market the takes most of the hit for us i mean that's rudy the high quality corners such the the european government bond space still have been benefiting from supply system on story this huge demand and not very much supply not probably next year's some time if he's tapering qe you should find the demand and supply stop meet each other a little bit closer i should force time premier up in the in the european bond market stocks wise europe obviously has a very large banking sector as a proportion of the overall market that should benefit uh what you do need for that banking sector particularly short rise to short rates to rise he just need a steep of that you actually the.