35 Burst results for "Duns"
Sale Strong Again for 5 IP, Red Sox Beat Rangers 6-0
"K. K. Hernandez Sander Bogart's and Alex Verdugo drove in two runs apiece is the red Sox dumped the Rangers six nothing Bogart's opened the scoring with an RBI single in the first inning and added a solo shot in the fifth Chris sale one for the second time in two starts since returning from Tommy John surgery last weekend scattering five hits and striking out five over five innings Kyle Schwarber was two for two with two walks and a run scored for Boston which remains a half game behind open for the second AL wild card losing pitcher Dane Dunning was tagged for five earned runs over four two thirds I'm Dave Ferrie
"duns" Discussed on How The Heck Are We Gonna Get Along
"I think we started seeing each other around politic long time ago i don't take it personally but my take is. My original show is conservatively unplugged. It was like a lighthearted take on the daily show and we pitched it all around. Hollywood and people like this is great. There's a lot of people out there but there's no way people are going to watch a republican show. Republicans and i went to the republicans. I said hey. This is us making fun of ourselves like no way. We're not gonna do that. So i just don't think that country exists and i don't think it's personal as the system rolls who you're gonna win your points of view you're going to alienate the base where we're gonna take you out during the midterms is gonna flip over empower power. Same thing's going to happen at the end. It's historically written in the books guys like you. And i are at this time in history when it's really big tech and social media have grabbed these issues. So what can i say to this issue. It's politics as usual but it is a major issue. We're talking about constitutionally shifting more power the government which conservatives are always gonna stand against. Are there any things that your party says or does right now that make you concerned at all that they might not win back certain things that might not win certain races in the midterms that they could have one. Have they done a different way. For example i'll give shit to my own party. I agreed with abigail span burger back in the day. If we hung tight to de-fund the police that we would end up losing a lot of seats. And perhaps we did because of the defunding police argument. I love my team but part of loving my favorite team is criticizing them when they play a bad game. So are there ways that you can look at the republican party right now and say if we don't get together on this particular issue or in this state or in this area we're going to end up not picking up the house. Come the midterms well. There's a lot i mean. There's a lot of contention over a lot of different areas. So i think i would. I would answer that more difficult for me. You know i. I'll tell you why kind of checked the bar smarter to know what. But you're smart enough to know what's plays to to american audiences right booklets sale so i know what will work. And what won't i assume or believe. So what does the party not doing right. Maybe what is the problem party. what what what. What if anything do you think. I list several things. Perhaps if i were being interviewed come to your show you can ask me this that the democrats i think need to do better at what do republicans need to do better at if they wanna win if they want to unseat raphael warnock in twenty two if they want to win the open seat here in north carolina in twenty two. What republicans have to make sure they don't screw up. I mean i appreciate the question almost puts it like am. I aware of every issue in every state but i would say more so man in this battle. I think it's going to be. It's going to be a real battle. Anything that panders to the concept. The big trap for us has been racism. Big trap i think we have to continue to pivotal. You're going to say. I'm not answering your question but i think we have to pivot away from race and we have to not embrace it. I think we have to not legitimize a lot of the claims going around the. How do you think you'd be legitimate. Maybe we're missing is showing people that we really are we. We liberated the slaves as as trump said. Juneteenth is really about what our vision is for america. We really care more about the middle class. This these things probably incense you because you won't agree. No i'm not. I heard talk to the middle of americans say you know the problem. The only problem. I have with that is the fact that you believe you know what i would think because i what's valid that's about. I don't know what. I actually don't know that i disagree with that. I think and i'm not going to say you didn't answer the question because she very well you very much. Did you said that you think that. Republicans need to do a better job of not validating democrats arguments about race. And sure i mean. I'm not a republican. I can't interest leading and focusing on care. Here's what here's one thing. I've always said it to my my democrat. Friends go we care. We both care we care. We're carrying country. We aren't compassionate conscious carrying country capitalistic as well as throwing in there which is imbued with so much amazing freedom. There's an amazing book that i quoted my article. I just don't have right in front of me. But they said if you take us fifty years ago to now we're absolutely we're absolutely winning the game evolving as a culture. But you know. I try to focus on the positivity of here. It is enlightenment now. The case for reasons science humanism progress as we care more about humanity. We're apt to mistake the harms around us. For signs of how low the world is sunk rather than how high our standards have risen an meyrick lacey takeover live and gratitude. Trust the divine for everything. There is a season be patient. And i think that you and i are in a game of bombast game. How much do i want my immune system and my mind and my business and my family talking about politics. I don't my dad's said this. He said something beautifully said. Hey son if government's really working left or right. You're not going to hear about it that much and i think we've lost that you know but you and i we want to hear about it because we want to keep these on the surface. I'm just trying to. I'm gonna look extremely hard right to you. Because i'm trying to poke holes in the negative parts of the liberal thought balloon. You're trying to poke holes in the negative parts of the conservative thought balloon that maybe unconscious to the refinements of care and that's a tragedy but unfortunately as warriors unite can't go out after the rugby game and have a beard but maybe today we did listen and i think one of the things you agree with that people who can't see us because they can only hear us. I can tell you both jackson. I have smiled throughout this entire discussion. So we're not arguing with each other out of out of anger. We are certainly disagreeing but not being disagreeable at any point not do think that most people should try a little harder to do that in the future. I also point out one thing that you said earlier in the show when you when we were talking about the structure of our government and you said that you were talking about how it takes a long time to turn the ship and you did say whether you meant to or not You said that neither party is going to make huge drastic changes and be able to destroy anything in this country because of our system. And so i would just argue that all of us all of us not talking specifically just you judd. But to everyone we've got to do a better job of remembering that and not screaming that the sky is falling every time we disagree with someone and i think that both sides could probably do that better. I have a whole bunch of questions from a from listeners. Who knew this was going to be a really good and exciting show. We probably can't get too many of them now. Because i've run mound mouth a lot this time but travis from reno you should conservative still back our department of justice and other law enforcement institutions. You know it's really scary. It's not as evident to the left. I think we've got a greater problem travis. And the problem is is that it seems like the elites left and right are untouchable so winded hillary get persecuted. When did trump get persecuted. Let's look at everybody. Let's look was the d. o. J. weaponized in ads on record muller were their politics and our justice system justices no longer fully blind so as we were talking about the three branches of our government. I hope that both left and right put in more scrutiny of de-politicising justice..
"duns" Discussed on How The Heck Are We Gonna Get Along
"And i do want to see people leading to the middle. And putting america's consensus i but the problem is clay. We have less consensus then used to be. There is a group in the middle of america. And larry elder said this he said. Hey if you're if you feel like you're party left you said you didn't leave the party left. It's it's been so polarized really tough for you to answer the question. Though i mean i just wanna know could you say okay. Do something in exchange for something else. And that's my boy. People should be doing this. I agree with you. People should be doing logical trade-offs. Okay so joe manchin offers. I mean this. This sort of blew my mind this morning. Because i when i heard that stacey abrams had supported joe mansions compromise to the voter. Id bill. I was not paying attention to the news yesterday for obvious reasons. I just learned this morning. That stacey abrams herself came out in support. Joe mansions compromise or at least said that she would back it But immediately republicans and mitch mcconnell and roy blunt called it the stacey abrams of voter rights package and they said they would not vote for it and second democrats are like stacey. Abrams are now with a nationwide voter. Id requirement because. That's what's joe mentioned. Bill purging the voter rolls and a nationwide voter. Id requirement which democrats have been screaming against four years voter id but joe mansions compromise allows for a nationwide voter id package in exchange for ending gerrymandering and mandating early access to voting. It is almost a bill that i'm pretty willing to be moderate on some of these things but it's almost a bill that i thought damn purging voter rolls allowing voter i d. That's a lot to swallow. But he got democrats to swallow and republicans won't do that. I'm like you'll never get voter. Id laws nationwide any other way. Why not take it. Why can't people compromise. if democrat. joe manchin can bring the democrats to the table on this. Why can't he get ten republicans to say. Okay we'll vote with an awesome okay. Well what did he actually say so he said. Here's what mcconnell said senate. Democrats seem to have reached a so-called compromise election takeover among themselves in reality. The plan endorsed by. Abrams is no compromise. Is still subverts. The first amendment supercharge cancel culture and the less name and shame campaign model. it takes redistricting away from state. Legislators in hands it over to computers. It's still retains s ones rotten corn saw on the fundamental idea. That states not the federal government should decide how to run their own elections. They don't we don't want to federalize but look or sound. It sounds to me like you're looking for things to disagree with instead of looking for things to agree with customers because you just said a minute ago you mentioned that particular organization where identified three major problems and one of them which i think we agree on. What's partisan gerrymandering right. This bill would do. I think that voter. Id is something that we should require. Nationwide no but would i give it in order to get rid of partisan gerrymandering fuck. Yes sorry for cussing bleep out of you to absolutely. I'd give it in order to get rid of partisan gerrymandering that is sort of how politics used to work. It certainly worked that way between tip o'neill and ronald reagan. It even work that way at times between newt. Gingrich and bill clinton i mean even they got stuff done. I mean holy crap. Imagine that but why is it that the perfect becomes the enemy of the good for both parties. But in this particular instance it sounds like the perfect becomes the enemy of the good for mitch. Mcconnell is he afraid perhaps that if he allows the actually votes for voter id. He won't have anything to bitch about anymore. I mean you're getting a huge piece of what you said you wanted for years. And the actual president elect is probably the issue. I mean you just said newt. Gringrich in tip o'neill nancy pelosi is a very difficult character to make peace in our nation. I mean you have to look a little bit further into the party structure. It's very it's war for her. I think she is there rhinos. She's the guy. No i'm just asking about this senate thing how did we i mean that's that is the okay. So we've poxy absolutism and then like distracting from the actual argument with me. You are talking about a senate no. Yeah but i'm talking about a senate bill. I'm talking about joe. Manchin i'm talking about mitch. Mcconnell us one on fs one which is senate one so nancy pelosi involved with that if they pass it then we can have the argument. Have me on your show. If they pass it in the senate and nancy pelosi it up. Then i'll be happy to tell you right now. I'm talking about but i agree. I mean listen. Why do we have to the systems worked for so long. it didn't work during covert mail in ballots. As far as we're concerned it opened up a lot of weakness the system right now. What what is misdoing. He's pushing back for more refinements. This is politics so if we were on the show in two weeks there might be another modern resolution. We'll see your reacting to the middle of the political process which we both know is extreme in bombastic. I'll tell you something. I've learned clay and you've been doing this. I don't know seven years. Probably similar kind of conversion time..
"duns" Discussed on How The Heck Are We Gonna Get Along
"If people are trying to be moderate are they going to automatically be demonized as radicals by the other side no matter what. The analysis of the left is that the six percent of your party that is the hard progressive left has a disproportionate amount of influences in alienating. As far as i've done my research about twenty six percent of your party with their policies so there's definitely a crisis in the democratic left as there is a crisis but a smaller one in the conservative right with those that are aligned with trump. I'm gonna political room for fifteen years. And cheney might not call it a smaller. But i'll feed your point because you you criticize a little spearhead of of that problem for us and i'm gonna say for us because i'm aligned i'm aligned. I like trump dishonest as gnome. I like i think pompeo it'd be a great great leader but there is a real issue of who's in charge of the democrat party for us and we see that alienating so it's hard to trust that joe's a moderate and i will say i know his whole. I know his whole we talking about here. Joe biden item. I know i know his history. And i agree that you put him in office because you thought he was actually less hard left progressive and representing more of america. But he's pretty weak. We're not seeing. You've never had a president saying i'm gonna get in trouble. I'm gonna get in trouble. I'm going to get in trouble. He's not in his power. The way trump was just on an external of view. Just being an american citizen doesn't seem to me that in his administration that he's absolutely in charge so it feels like elements that aren't aligned. Your core base have a lot of influence. Things i've seen joe do is destroy jobs. I seen him accommodate china. I seen him back often. Iran deal in the first hundred and one hundred sixty days that he's been in office. You've seen that. That's what he said. Come on one twentieth. But he's setting that tone. Let me just finish is what he did with guns in was very aggressive this earth. He's only been president january. What do you do with critical race. Serious deferent- a run and climate is being accommodate climates. The biggest burn of money we can. We can take on right now. We set it on the side. Do you notice you guys. Let go of climate for a while. Because you couldn't have. Climate through paris accord it became a political tool it. Look i love. I love nature but we need to fix it in a rational. We don't need to destroy oil jobs and gut energy independence. It took a seventy six years to get to energy independent. So i'm not seeing a rational president from a right leaning point of view and i liked this conversation klay. I'm not here to get in your face. Or i want to hear what you have to say because we're unhappy to well. I mean i'm wondering as i hear you say these things if we're not at a place where maybe at some point. We all have to just accept. We're going to be unhappy and going to disagree with a president. If they aren't in our party i mean i i hear the things that you're saying and i recognize that they are not. I mean the nice thing about this country is we do have checks and balances do have a system in place where not only are there three separate branches but even within one of those branches there are two separate houses that things have to go through both of them and in one of those houses you have to get sixty percent of our system is set up in such a way that it is really tough to get things passed. It's not as simple as joe biden being president and saying. Here's what i wanna do. And simply because they they happen to have a majority in the legislative branch. Things get passed anything that gets passed including most of the stuff in his first one hundred however many days. We're at now head to pass his desk through the house through the senate where it had to get more than sixty votes with a few exceptions and then had to be signed by him. We're not talking about some sort of dictatorship where he is in control of everything or where alexandria across cortes corey buscher in control of everything. We're talking about a system that was set up to make it deliberative and that every law that gets passed has to have some sort of like can't just be enacted without any deliberation and yes when donald trump was president and republicans controlled both the house and the senate that made my stomach turn a lot because there were things that i really didn't agree with but it was difficult for me as per just me to say well this is absolutely anathema to what everybody in the country wants because at the end of the day they controlled that republicans control the house and the senate because they were voted for and i criticize my own party often for not making stronger arguments. Is it not possible that maybe republicans didn't win. Some of these elections because of their arguments weren't strong enough sure. Of course there's a system but since you're talking about the system. I think a really important thing for us to know why you think you know. Even though we have these three branches there over three hundred pieces of legislation that were by passed by both parties. That went to harry. Reid and ansi pelosi desk. During the obama years the process called black hold they were just killed right so you can use executive orders. You can black hole bills and you can shut down the process. You're right you're absolutely right. And i think mayor garland would be the person who could tell us most about that because republicans have done it too and you agree with that. Yeah i would absolutely room. And that's what i'm saying is we are going to be as not to mess up your themed. Show this'll be. Maybe we can't get along the more work buddy. I was a lifelong liberal. I was a socialist in a matter. Of fact i everybody socialist win. They're in their teens and twenties. It's quite right until they like trump kidding right now. look tax. Tab top tax bracket are in california nationally. Now between is saying california. Most people i've i've been told by so many of them other conservative friends that california the liberal hellhole. And everybody's leaving. Why are you still there. Why haven't you left yet. I surf that easy. Well i'm gonna beaches georgia and florida have beaches to south carolina. I don't have swell. I listen. I will say i'm already. I'm moving. we're talking about moving. Six months a year to another place. And i go there and i'm like oh california's amazing. So you know the bottom line. My uncle said something great. He was head vice president vice president of merrill lynch for forty two years and he says you know no matter who's in party. He goes taxes. Go up and say we'll just work harder. That's the american way. So you know you just gotta work harder during the thing. That what we're going in i look back. This is a perfect point. Pivot point for this. The supply side economics background. I'm i'm gonna top five institutional real estate firm. I open my own firm. I've been in the real estate. Markets will in time and you know the the nation shifts between supply-side and.
"duns" Discussed on How The Heck Are We Gonna Get Along
"Trouble and fraud in the election but at the same time not widespread trouble and fraud not enough fraud to have changed the outcome of the election and this is why we have an electoral college. But why do we want to get rid of this. Let me ask you another. I don't think that's why we haven't electoral college. It's why we have votes than we have. Vote counter originally colleges also to spread the vote as well as protect people from right but it but then have anything to do with fraud so fraud itself. If so question is a great break ties. It made it harder to steal the vote that in also spreads the vote across the nation. Not you're not gonna get me to disagree with the electoral college. I'm again against my disagree on my. Yeah go ahead. no i was just saying. That's something that bill barr himself said. Trump's attorney general who democrats demonized and hated for a long time and. I'm saying. I didn't really like himself. But he himself said. There was evidence of some mismanagement. Some some evidence of fraud but there was not enough to have changed the outcome of this election and it was not widespread. There was no evidence of widespread fraud in the election. And anytime i hear. Democrats be willing to speak out against democrats. I listen a little bit more carefully. Because i want to say i want to know. Okay why did they. Why did they step out and have the to speak out against their own party. When does note nothing to help them. It's one of the reasons that i think. Joe manchin has had found success in getting some people on both sides to listen to him but when bill barr steps out and says no. I'm sorry the guy who gave them a job. Who if he were to win. I would keep my job His wrong there hasn't been widespread. Fraud what motivation does somebody like that. Have to say something like that. I can understand even the most insane idea that yes there are some democrats who hated donald trump. So much that they were they would do anything in the world to make sure he lost. But bill barr didn't have that motivation diddy brimingham but that was given the information at the time. I mean there's a north carolina judge it just went through thousands of ballots. Say these look photocopied and is making enquiries in north carolina right now and then democrats are grabbing and say oh well let's try to flip it over. Let's try to flip it over. Let's try start flipping states over to biden. I mean so. Even democrats are acknowledging fraud by saying that. Oh okay you want to audit. Let's audience so bill boiled saying let the on it because they don't believe there was fraud. You're talking to somebody who's north carolina. So i know what happened. America will choose stability over justice at times. We are very fragile. Nation the democrat the people in the supreme court that you just mentioned that have been protecting the boat. It's perfect it's particularly not something that's handled by the supreme court. They don't wanna get involved in an issue of federalism. That's gonna change if hr one goes through sr one now that they're trying to push through but look at what who do we save in the crash you know. We didn't say bear stearns right. We saved goldman sachs. We went for stability. Our nation was on the edge of actually revolution at this. We got serious russ and so you know. Bill barr came out the time. There's not enough information at that point but information continues to come out and it needs to be for guys like me other people down the street. Your neighbors a half of us wanna to know that we're absolutely absolutely clear. Just like when gay marriage went through. That was a major law concerns. Like oh it's legislatively clear. God bless all gay marriage. Let's who cares now. The issue is not that. I am not talking about physician. Don't him like that's exactly what they said. And if they had there would not have been further cases involving it but to your point about stability so it sounds like i let me follow that argument with you for a minute. America chooses stability over. What was it again. America chooses not to ability over the over justice stability over justice in certain situations maybe in times of crisis us crash in two thousand eight as an example but but wouldn't stability have been sticking with the same administration that was already in power if they were gonna choose. Stability would not be the way to choose stability get sounds like america may have chosen stability and may have chosen that perhaps joe biden was more stable than donald trump was if they had chosen stability. If you're to make your argument true they would have. You would have to be saying that. Donald trump one 'cause keeping the same administration would be the stability right. I think i think that's sharp shooter in a black and white ideological fallacy. Because you're taking part of the statement and saying that no the stability was to keep our nation intellectual bright. I mean all the ap called early called this election for biden and then everybody else jumped on and called it for biden because the way that the votes they're song barbara is or did those votes come in because they were some weird stuff happening klay komo. We shut down. There was fires i mean. They're they're sprinklers. There was people pulling out ballots and remember. Here's the thing to remember the rationalist me. Just get your heart on this. One is when bush gore when december twenty six. I mean that was just a handful of votes less than a thousand votes. If you look at state by state this this was like sixty thousand votes man. This was not a huge amount of votes before. And then there were the sudden spikes. I went. I went through this. There were thirty anomaly. Anomalies to the voting process. That all happened within the same forty eight hours. That had never been broken before. Statistically there were aberrations so that actually happened. You were a lot of your opinions. You can't say that. Thirty thirty statistical norms were all broken because mail in ballots and kovin. So there's okay. That was a unique situation. Let's just vet. That doesn't mean i'm a seditionists. In two thousand sixteen there were just as many people who hated donald trump as they were in two thousand twenty and there were probably more people who hated hillary clinton in two thousand sixteen than certainly than hated. Joe biden was was the same sort of fraud in the election in two thousand sixteen. Well that's what we've talked about this baby what. We're so focused on systemic racism. Racism which i again you have every you say that you can see exactly where the fraud was in two thousand twenty like you know in places to go recount etc where we're was there that similar sort of evidence in two thousand sixteen fraud or did he just said. I was in two thousand sixteen in ohio and suddenly buses predominantly ethnic americans. Arrive and fifteen of us had gone to door knocks. So we set up our chairs and we sat there and we watched people brought in by organized. Just rotating in idealists. People voting multiple times going to other tables. I mean this ohio in two thousand sixteen in dublin. Yeah i've seen that was will so my question is why didn't republicans go after the fraud. Then why weren't they upset about it. Then if there was fraud in two thousand sixteen if you saw it in ohio then in two thousand sixteen why not go after it or was it because okay we won this one so we don't care about it i mean. Is it possible. The democrats don't care about fraud now because they happen to win so they don't care about it. I think you're putting out a moral high ground argument. I just gave that right. I think there's something there's nothing broken in the ethics so the conservative right on some kind of selfish blind agenda trump was phenomenon for this country and he had like three hundred. Seventy eight positive achievements they get buried under the things that happened in trade. The things that happened in employment the things that happened with the defense there are a lot of very positive things happening that we're changing politics as usual. It's possible that feeling about him. Being a racist so it is impossible. Did a lot of great things that conservatives really like. Listen at the end of the day as i said earlier elections have consequences and no i didn't agree with donald trump on a whole ton of his policies right and it's positions. I also didn't agree. With george w bush on his policies and positions. And i certainly don't expect you or other conservatives to agree with obama or president biden but these are the things that happen right when someone gets into office especially if they have control of all three of both houses of the legislature and the white house. Is it possible though that someone could be a very very good president to you and to other conservatives but still have satisfied more than fifty percent of the population statistically. There's no other american presidency that would fall into that category..
Germán Strong Following Kluber, Yanks Shut out Rangers Again
"The Yankees won their third straight as they blanked the Texas Rangers to do nothing so the Yankees win seven of ten on the road trip while the Rangers have lost nine of last ten and have not scored a run in the last twenty two winnings to mingle her mind into relievers combined on a six hit shutout her mom threw seven scoreless innings our goal is Chapman notches eleven say Dane Dunning threw six scoreless innings for Texas but the Yankees broke through with two in the seventh off reliever John King on RBI singles by pensioners G. over shallow and Aaron judge Bob Stevens Arlington Texas
4 Free Tools to Manage Your Business Finances
"Or four tools to help manage your business finances first tool good old google sheets. Google sheets is basically excel for google. And it's on the cloud. It's absolutely free. If you have a google account of g mail account and it's absolutely essential because allows you to know your profits and losses a european l. You can track all your expenses all your revenue and no. You are making a profit month after month. A simple spreadsheet with some simple formulas can go a very long way when it comes to some visibility on your finances. We also use google sheets for projections to project growth and to set goals on what we have to do. Hit those projections now if you're new to spreadsheets in your new to formulas and knowing how to do calculations it's actually quite simple and i highly encourage you check out Youtube youtube has a lot of free tutorials on how to use google sheets so go ahead and dive in in thirty minutes or so. You will be well equipped. I also use google sheets for planning any projects. So they're on launching a new course. A new product or planning an event allows me to know. How much is this gonna cost me. Guessing calculations how much potential revenue. I can make how many people any to attend my event to make it worthwhile. It's a good place. Just get the ball rolling so you. Can you have a viable product feature or idea on your hands. What's awesome a google cheeses that you can share with other people on your team sitting collaborate in more than one person can work on it and have access to it all right tool number two profit well profiles absolutely free and is a great way for you to get some visibility on your revenue profes- well plugs in or integrates with your payment processor by braintree or stripe and they specialize in subscription based services. If you run a software company or a membership site or you have a group coaching with a monthly subscription or annual as long as reoccurring. It's perfect profit while is great because it will show you all the right metrics how much money you're making each month. I'm an irish money making each year. What's your churn. how many customers are leaving you. It's great for trial conversions. And doing all that math for you in pretty charts. It's super simple to set up and it's absolutely free. It's one of my favorite tools because it gives you so much visibility about how things are moving the trends Also will give us insights on what months or normally slow or fast. It also has some great tools to compare your business with other businesses in your industry so you can see for hitting the benchmark so if you're looking for a business analytics tool it's a fantastic tool free forever and you can even add people to your account that our party. Our team to give them access as well. It's really really amazing. How this is free. They have other services that they charged for but the metrics tool is free if you wanna get into their dunning services to lawyer involuntary churn They have those services as well. You might have heard me mention well. A few times on this podcast. They have a fantastic blog. Great youtube channel A lot of great information on pricing models on customer acquisition on freemium. Their blog is awesome. It's absolute gold. The third tool. I want to share with you today. To help with your business finances is actually your bank app. Many people don't know the extent of what their bank app can do. So i highly recommend you check it now even walk into the bank and ask them if they walk through. Give a demo your bank app were you get all your deposits and make all your deductions for your business. Actually probably has a lot of features that you are unaware of get to know them. Whether it's reoccurring payments went to have set up so you can deduct your own salary or payroll automatically or You can track how you're spending your money inside of your bank cap so you know where your money's going to and it comes to your business you can even set up sub accounts and then go ahead and put money aside if you're looking to save some money for our future product or release or something for your business. Every bank is different in their app will have different features but players check out your banks app because many people have discovered. There's a lot of grief look challenge. The bank offers stree- inside their app. That can help streamline their finances all right the fourth tool. I want to share with you. Today is my favorite payment processor. Stripe now yes. Stripe is a tool to allow you to charge your customers to accept credit card payments on your website all that kind of stuff and yet the rate is competitive and all that stuff. But what's awesome about. Stripe is that you can actually create invoices inside. Your stripe accounts very needed to invoice. Somebody like for freelance work. You've done organizing an event or whatever it is. Sometimes you'll feel like they need to buy expensive invoicing software and pay a monthly fee while sharp is absolutely free and you can create invoices directly in stripe and you can send those invoices to via email. And they can pay you via credit card Right there on the web the can click link on their email and they can enter the credit card and pay your invoice. This is sort of like a hidden feature because stripe actually invoices your customers automatically when they you know by something on your website it creates crates invoice and then charges it kind of does the background but they also have this feature that you can do as it adleman. Rain said your stripe account so loud build on this but you could actually create one off invoices which is fantastic actually kind of is a billing sierra as well because you add new customers and you can use those customers in your account to invoice them again.
"duns" Discussed on Serious Inquiries Only
"Something. The wind blew it all the way to california. It was unbelievable gale-force hurricane winds are fence got knocked over trees power of quarter million people out power and. i'm hoping i get. I hope i hope this This recording goes okay. It's it's it's not a sure thing power has been in and out but so that's me and then we think we're all it's all resolved. We're good we recovered this morning. You know and when you know at phoebe as a fever which means should we can't both kids can't go to daycare for a calendar year or something until they. Yeah yeah so that's my day anyway. I'm really excited to have you on though because you're this cheer me up. This is going to be really cool episode because there was an article by jonathan jerry and he wrote about the fact that the dunning kruger effect might not be real and made made some waves on the twitter on the interwebs super curious about this so lindsay was kind enough to check this out. Apply her spider technology. Sorry technology really did play a large role my ability to register quick plug to the twitch stream where we have been streaming here and there and talking about all kinds of cool reproductive facts about other species. It's been a lot of fun Be thankful that you're not a spider. Everybody be thankful that you're not a spider. Well specifically a male spider. I guess the women have it. Yeah they seem. They seem to be doing okay. We get a lot of snacks. Yes feel a little bit peckish. they remedy that. Probably the plugging doesn't sound like that much fun. Though so i. I wouldn't want to be a spider of of either sex personally. Yeah more details on the twitch dot tv slash series bud stream of your check out those videos. It's been a lot of fun. Maybe don't bring your kids. I don't know unless spider kids. Actually especially if they're spider says better that they don't know all right now that we've covered that. Let's talk about dunning kruger. Since you are so good at science blaming everything. I thought maybe since i read this article maybe i can try to explain what i think this is saying. You can tell me if i got it right and then critiquing or confirm it. What do you think yeah now. That sounds fun okay. So this article. It seems pretty plausible to me as not a scientist. And i can't wait for you to tell me why i'm wrong. But it shows the classic chart the dunning kruger effect. You know in the common understanding is that the the less you know. Roughly speaking the less you know about a topic the more. You're going to overestimate your knowledge of a topic or a thing task or whatever and so the classic experiment involved a self assessment and like comparing a score on a test on something no. It was grammar. No that was just one of the examples. Gra- grammar was one of them. Yeah so taking some sort of like Asking people you know. How do you think you'll score on a grammar test for example and they estimate what they think they'll score and then they take the test and the classic chart that i'm sure a lot of us are familiar with the core tile or you know the lower people in terms of actual score have all asked overestimated their abilities and actually the top. The people who score highest have slightly underestimated their abilities. And so i think the common conception has been that like the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities and then as you become an expert then you're maybe humbled a little bit. And so you underestimate your abilities and So this article though suggests that perhaps this is just like an. I don't know what you want to call it a data artifact or problem with 'cause like apparently if you just replace the data with like randomness random samples you reproduced the effect and so the thing. And when i looked at that it kind of made sense in a way like oh. It's it's almost as though everybody basically estimates that they are average because like the the the the perceived ability is pretty close to average. You know like within a little bit and again you're gonna science buying this to us in just a minute but it made a bit of intuitive sense to me like oh yeah. It does kind of seem like i. I could see where that might come about from just random data like if everybody imagine you know you're going to assess a score on a random thing you know some test. On average people will estimate that they are somewhere around average you know and then the people who are at the bottom of the test by definition there will will have overestimated themselves. Because they you know. It's it averages out so to me that seem kind of compelling and the the the end at the end of the day on this article it's like well this might not be a real effect. So how did i do and then what do you think about this article. You did a wonderful job. So yeah so. I think that. That's a good summary of jump and jerry was was was summarizing here so i have to bottom lines that we can circle back to after i. I think it's very important to actually go through the original demonstration of the dunning kruger to talk about some of the more nuance results. Because this critique is sort of aimed at lake the basic demonstration that they did of the effect but it actually doesn't address The more nuanced evidence that provides more conclusive support for the mechanisms. That are proposing so. That's where i want to get to eventually. There's a lot more to this paper than just that graph Short they're sort of you know critiquing there and also i saw new for is is the lead researcher that authored the paper that job and jerry's talking about here and the critique that he's leveling here is not a new one so this this critique was presented pretty soon after the publication of the of the original dunning nineteen ninety nine article and it has been thoroughly addressed like they've back. Yeah they've done tasks and sort of reanalyze. The data in a way that is consistent with the recommendations of people who have made these kind of statistical artifact claims and they've found that it doesn't make the effect go away. Oh interesting.
2021 AI Market Predictions
"So if you've been listening to a today podcast for awhile. welcome back. We really appreciate all of our fantastic listeners. But if you're a new to the podcast. This is your first episode. We like you to know that. There's hundreds of episodes that we've been producing over the last four years on with the have everything from great interviews with a i thought leaders and insights into the market trends and adoption in public and private sectors. And actually will be doing one of those insights into the mayor market trends on this podcast episode but also conversations on key topics on what's happening with a today and in the future so over our past for years almost two hundred episodes we've interviewed some incredible influencers. So we encourage you to go back and listen to a lot of these episodes. We have episodes interviewing folks. Ben kurzweil of singularity net and the sofia robot colin angle from founder viral anthony griffin. Yano from dun and bradstreet eager. Perry switch from lincoln. Suzanne can't the former us federal cio. The hose arrietta ceo former cio of the us department of health and human services. Lord tim clement. Jones keep people at organizations large and small and lots more so Definitely subscribe to the today podcast so that you can basically here are insights on the technology markets and how different industries are applying emerging concepts machine learning. And just in general long story short if you want to understand how. Ai is being put into practice today. Which is why this is called a today and where it's heading. Make sure to subscribe day today. On your favorite podcast provider and listen to our hundreds of episodes. Yes so as ron mentioned today we wanted to spend some time talking about our twenty twenty. One a. i. Market predictions and forecasts at the beginning of every year. We always you know. Take a step back and look at what happens over the past year and where we things going moving forward so acog melinda in case this is your podcast or you're just starting to listen to us. We're an ai. Focused research education and advisory firm and we really focus on market intelligence. We cover all over twenty thousand vendors in the space so we have a great pulse of what's going on and we work with both public and private sector companies so we really have a holistic view of the space so we wanted to spend some time today reflecting back on what we're seeing in the market and then making some predictions and forecasts about where the market will go in twenty twenty one so one of the first predictions that we have. These are not in any sort of ranking order. They're just how he laid out this podcast. So we have that worldwide adoption of artificial intelligence and machine learning. We've seen it growing at a very high rate and were predicting that this is not going to stop anytime soon. I mean so. There's a lot of indications that show that we are moving towards much more use of what we call the seven patterns of ai and we will link to them in the show notes but one of the things about is that it is a fairly generic term general term which corresponds to making machines intelligent and doing the things that humans would otherwise. Do you ask people as to what they're specifically doing. It's usually gonna be one or more of these seven pattern so it might be a recognition system or it could be a conversational system or could be something doing predictive analytics or trying to find patterns or anomalies or it could be trying to develop the hyper personal profile. The hyper personalization profile of you. So that it can no to tailor things better for your needs or it could be an autonomous system systems that are meant to operate with little or no human interaction. Or perhaps we're doing something we're trying to have. Machines find the solution to something you goal driven systems and when you talk about it from that perspective it's like yeah chat bots are growing recognition. Systems are growing the use of machine learning for patterns and anomaly detection as well as predictive analytics. that's growing. You know maybe hyper personalization. Maybe that that's been a little bit slower to grow. We are definitely seeing a lot. More autonomous stuff whether or not. They're all entirely successful a whole other story. But we are and we're seeing of course a lot more use of even goal driven systems and part of the reason why we say this is that there is some fud in the market Other analyst firms in particular are saying that they're seeing some large number of data science projects that are failing. You know gardner. Says eighty seven percent of data. Science projects failed to deliver on their for their executive sponsors and seventy percent of machine. Learning models lose relevancy overtime. Well these are. There is some truth to that. Yes models do have what's called drift and then later what we're going to talk about in this. Podcast is the growth of technology area technology market with an ai called l. Ops that specifically addresses this area of models overtime lose their relevancy. But that's just like the thing let's like saying well. I built an app in one thousand nine hundred ninety six therefore i need to update it in the year. Two thousand three two thousand eighteen thousand thirteen two thousand eighteen. Yeah yes. that's what. Technology and technology doesn't standstill. Say all the fact that you have to update it means. It's not like the fact that you have to up it means you're actually using it and the needs for that. Continue to grow. If you didn't care you just throw it away so
"duns" Discussed on The Michael Berry Show
"Your three favorite restaurants we've eaten at the last year. What are your three favorite cities we've visited and i just think it helps to order your thoughts and that's why i was interested when i saw book that had come out on my fiftieth birthday november tenth a few weeks ago entitled thirteen and a half reasons why not be a liberal and how to enlighten others by judd dunning all right. i'll bite. Why thirteen and a half michael berry patty and good morning. Good talking good to be your man. Happy fifty welcome to the club. Buddy yeah you know we look at. I woke up one morning. I'm like chapter. Seven was in my head. American exceptionalism is not a hate crime. And that's really the essence of this division that we're in and my dad had passed a couple of years ago and we were letting go with this beautiful cabin up in the blue ridge mountains. I'm not a texan. But i did grow up in the country north carolina and then colorado and california all these years and he just said he said hey you know government can say the hell out of my business. They always say government is working. You shouldn't be hearing about it all the time and you. He didn't force his republicanism on me. Because i became a crazy liberal through my education and through hollywood and we went up to this retreat. And we said let's make a list. I love it. You said that. And i said why. Do we know what we know. What are these enduring truths these constitutional elements whole tents. Hold us together. And why are they. So let's go look at the evidence one more time and he was beautiful. It was glorious and we made a great great series of listen. I hope people out there and get get look at it. So they can say oh. This is why conservatives are conservative. We're just the other side of america. But i still don't understand what the is the have all right. Well there's so we have half reasons why not to be all right. I had a problem on a radio show because of this. So i qualify so what we did. Is we get the thirteenth core tenets of conservatives and versus liberalism etc and a half reason. Was we out as a half reason. Not because it's a less important reasons because there's a more important reason and it actually stands outside of the reasons you would just choose your ideology you know like people should not be a liberal or conservative this very sensitive issue. This issue is so important that it should possibly never be solved and it shouldn't be the reason you choose a party anymore. I mean look at what's been happening in georgia and alabama and look. What's been happening in new york and virginia. Complete polar opposites so we sent trump at number thirteen so the book could be timeless but have a great chapter about trump's achievements. Amazing list if you wanna see it. and then. The last chapter was about abortion in life. Pro-life pro-choice we stand pro pro life position and why we chose we. I actually real personal story on that chapter..
Saying no with Anna Mathur
"Can Be quite annoying. I had a friend who when I had my first child and I was with her and she just done a degree in child psychology I was supposed to be therapy remembered that really no different state really care anyway she just honest degree and. I was trying to start my son like climbing up I think it was like coming up afraid of stone steps several two to three row quite dangerous. Not really no idea and was saying, no, don't they wasn't cross wasn't shouting but no dunning not do that. We're not. We're not gonNA come upstairs and she was like. This quite of evidence that. We shouldn't really be saying no to our children cash is. Is the and did she have any children elision zero chills children. Children. And I was like okay. Hey. I'm always ready to take advice you give it a go So she went hey, come here and she got like a broom and she tried to distract my son from the stairs by giving him a broom to play with and he didn't really want the fucking broom and he wants to get the fucking stairs throw things off the landing and lost it a about. I'm going to say ninety seconds tops and then just quietly hopped into the kitchen just makes league imagine if that was a good distraction technique house cleaning flows pay I mean, yeah you'd be Hick go sweep call everyone knows the broom technique Emma I'm surprised she didn't bring it up earlier. But now I'm terrified you're GONNA go when actually saying not children is now established I've got I've got something helpful. Say about this the I heard on another pocus the the day zoe mother kind and There was a woman talking about that moment you got on a roller coaster and you know when you shake the harness by and you're doing it not so that it moves because you don't want you don't want it to pop up and you're doing it because you want to know that it's there to keep you safe. Yes and they were talking about boundaries with children, how the kids rattle the boundaries. Because they want to be. They want to know that their soulmate insecure. Pop Open because we want the barrier to pop open. On predictability and familiarity so. We can actually then you're saying that I was right and the right thing to do is to say, no, because you're pushing back and saying no. Not Neither say. Even if they have a patio on the floor, it's still like a loving. No. Talk. In. Spanish something. That's very county. Do that. Unless of course you from one of those countries you you're bilingual. Let's let's go to account for everybody guys soliciting. Her.
Dunning Pitches Chicago White Sox Past Minnesota Twins For 6th Straight Win
"Innit White Sox reduce their magic number to two for clinching the postseason as they opened a three game lead on Minnesota in the A L Central. The six to win over the Twins six straight for the Sox 10 of their last 11 Lucas Giolito pitches tonight, Right here on W G. N it 6
Getting Debt Relief From Financial Institutions Is Hard Right Now
"WanNa talk some things involving where you are financially. You know a lot of people with one quarter of Americans out of work. Lot of people are having a tough time and right now many of that quarter unemployed earth finally seeing the funds flow and depending on your situation going into corona virus. Maybe you've been able to write your financial ship. Maybe not maybe some of it's okay. Some of it's not but I'm hearing so many frustrated complaints from people trying to deal with an organization typically a bank when you're having trouble making your payments you know I've said through my entire career which spans thirty three years. Now that the key when you hit a rough spot financially is early and often stay in touch with the people you owe money to. Unfortunately there are so many people trying to contact Particularly a bank with a credit card or any kind of loan product with them that you're having trouble getting through you're having trouble getting consistent answers and you're having trouble with the banks following the laws that are pertaining to corona virus. I want you to know that to not get discouraged if you get somebody at customer. No service at a bank. That doesn't care is mean-spirited. Doesn't know whatever. Thank them very much telling you gotta go. There's your food on the stove. I don't care what you tell them. Just get off that that phone call and call back and get somebody else because one of the things. That's been true and what I've heard from people what I've read in various news. Stories is the inconsistency with the banks and this is not I mean I love to beat up on the banks but this is not necessarily a bank cultural problem. It is a situation the result of so many people working remotely with the guidance changing over time and with people not in a central call center. There's been such an inconsistency with what people are being told that it's just hard to get the same message across your employees and get the same response out to consumers or borrowers when people are working remotely but when you do talk to somebody make sure you get their name When you talk you write down when you talk to them. The date If they use an employee number you want that because what you WANNA do. Is You want to take notes and document what spent promised to you on what date. And let's face facts to when we're overwhelmed. Sometimes we hear what we want to hear. So that's why I want you to take notes and even asked now. I think I heard you say that I'm allowed to do this. And you're going to allow me to not make payment for a month and you're not gonNA report me as delinquent in that time and you get them saying yes or no to that and re explain it to you if you didn't hear exactly what's going on but manage this and the more thorough. You are with notes the batter. Let's take the example of. You're told that you're going to be given a grace period and not be considered to be passed. Do Right now because of you contacting them and then the next month you gotTa dunning notice or mean-spirited collection call you can refer back to your notes and you say hey on this date this time this is what so and so told me and so you have that information as you're amunition when somebody is not treating you right but I want to deal with more fundamental thing that is a back to basics not necessarily even related to the current situation. And it's how important is to have a little lifestyle debt as you possibly can. I mean you think about credit card debt and roughly six out of ten of us. Ordinarily run balances on credit cards so on a regular basis. Four and ten people are always paying their balances and full six and ten or always running balances and these are just obviously rough numbers and then paying an average interest rate of. Let's say seventeen eighteen percent. Now think about this. The cost of fines for the banks right now for money lent on credit cards is less than one percent. So they're borrowing the money. Their cost defines is a fraction of one percent. The they then mark up to seventeen percent. How are they able to do that? Well the reason is none of us. Use Credit cards at least initially with the intent of using them as anything other than a payment system. We don't go into it fully expecting most of us at least the we're going to borrow money on them. We think we're only using them as an alternative to cash but human nature being what it is we see something we want that something we buy that something and then the bill comes weeks later like you don't have the money for that and you start carrying a balance and end up with that seventeen percent interest higher or lower. And so I'd like you. If you are in the three quarters of Americans that still have your job. You're still okay in that job for now I'd like you to take this as a clear signal that if you are carrying personal debt work on it work at down. Americans have already been much more careful spending money on things other than necessities. That means that some money may be freeing up in your budget each month if it is then be very very mindful and methodical about paying down debt and get rid of that high interest credit card debt.
Long Coronavirus Testing Line In Chicago’s Dunning Neighborhood
"There are five drive through testing sites for covert nineteen Illinois the one on Chicago's northwest side on forest preserve drive saw long lines of cars even before opening yesterday only two hundred fifty tests can be done each day for first responders or people sixty five and older who have symptoms of the virus lieutenant colonel Jason Stein cap is with the Illinois National Guard this first time that most of us are doing this throughout the country so it's a new process and so we reporter some processes and who we are and we're very pleased with all the how are you man enough public health been able to process it is the story on average it takes about five minutes to test each person
Long Coronavirus Testing Line In Chicago’s Dunning Neighborhood
"There are five drive through testing sites for covert nineteen Illinois the one on Chicago's northwest side on forest preserve drive saw long lines of cars even before opening yesterday only two hundred fifty tests can be done each day for first responders or people sixty five and older who have symptoms of the virus lieutenant colonel Jason Stein cap is with the Illinois National Guard this first time that most of us are doing this throughout the country so it's a new process and so we reporter some processes and who we are and we're very pleased with all the how are you man enough public health been able to process it is the story on average it takes about five minutes to test each
Exchange the US with Binance US CEO Catherine Coley
"You just talk about that path and what you did previously and and how we got here today. Sir Super excited to share this with your listeners. They spend such a devout part of shaping the crypto ecosystem so. It's exciting to ship fan. But I began really as an experiential learner and in order for me to understand things I have to do them. There are auditory learners their visual learners in Connecticut. And I happened to be the last one so I really in order to understand how this world works at a throw myself into situations to understand them and one of the things that couldn't grasp was how the world works and I taking courses etc and always had something in the back of my head that I learned it. Was You know? Follow the money in history will teach you and so the best way to follow the money was to put yourself really in the middle of the largest flows in the world which was the foreign exchange markets and going onto a trading floor. And really witnessing what that was I read a book. Called Liar's poker in it changed my life so I mean that's that's the best way for me to understand how this world works is seeing really what people are identifying as news and what they're trading on and what swings. We're seeing in reaction and how they affect anybody else. So I got my start. On the Hong Kong trading floor at Morgan Stanley covering the onshore Asian currencies understanding that after the Asian financial crisis these countries had restrictions and limitations put on them to safeguard against potential attacks from others. So it was a very unique situation where my counterparts in. New York barely knew the difference between Malaysia System in Thailand system and yet I was super aware of those niche differences that opens and closes distinct their equities markets the the ability of having like an omnibus account versus having to do individual trades. There's another world out. There is really telling to why these economies are developing in certain way so I found it super fascinating and just enjoyed that case and the understanding a real pulse on how the world works but the world was changing so I during Dun Dun Dun during my time I witnessed it one of the jobs that I had was extremely manual. Had to move between a Bloomberg Terminal Reuters terminal and so no matter the automation that provided Skip that step and you just Kinda sat there. Frustrated blind like this is job security. They need me. I'm I'm the rotation of my My Body over here type this. There's something I can create mechanical. Do this for them but You just noticed that there were some frictions along the system. That really helped things back from going to the fully electronic funding we use the word electronic describing things this fast moving back then or now it's all digital so electronic trading was taking off the ability to put. Al Goes in the hands of your customer rather than facilitate a tea or time weighted average going through that on their own was something it was empowering your user or your customer really enjoyed being able to monitor and watch their activity. N- understood that they were getting the best price they weren't having a Middle Man. You know take things off based on how How they felt really And that that was something that we were seeing as a scaring factor on the sell side but an empowering factor when he thought about the market as a whole so I really pushed forward in dug into how electric trading and the fx platforms point be helping oftentimes told slowdown. This is ruining our enjoyable jobs as voice brokers to some extent so When I witnessed all that other Lucien I kept in the back of my head. Saying there's gotta be a better way. There's got to be faster way. I don't want any little girl to wake up and say today. I'm going to type on a Bloomberg terminal and rotate type on Reuters terminal and that's going to be why I went to school and why I continue to wake up every day. So the ability to automate that or make it moving away. Everyone can access. It was really exciting to me. So that's truthfully I think of it as I've been training for the Olympics. Those were the those were the early days that got me to say. I'm fired up about increasing the rates which we can offer institutional quality services down to the individual and streamline the whole process in itself. It boggles my mind. Three thousand people which is still small. That's the amount of sell side. Employees there are in exchange Three thousand people were dedicated to moving other people's money from one place another and ultimately that should come down further and further because moving money from you know pointed point being four axes. It's I don't know that the number of people actually changes is just the medium and the the forum through which these assets are changing hands is going to be different and it will continue to Also changed the Say there is like one person that is facilitating that trade for Hedge Fund. Then they're sixteen people dedicated to that one day. So you've got compliance. You've got your back office. You Bet your settlement team you. And if you can streamline those roles and provide alternatives for people we could have far more fulfilling in motivating experiences in life or for years and so I think there's a lot of those bottlenecks that our customers. They could be eliminated and really give people a sense environment. It's funny twenty. Fifteen was this era of blockchain. Not bitcoin right after crash and the pitch was basically about eliminating cost centers. That was the big thing that all the enterprise players got excited about an alone. Behold another entire market cycle passes in CRYPTO and. I think the reason that the public chains are so much faster aside from just the incumbents move slower by default is that twenty seventeen was all about. I can make a lot. More money with crypto. Right whether it's status you know trading whether it's market making whether it's you know creating an ICO and selling it and liquidating that is a much more compelling reason to adopt a new technology and finance than just we're gonNA limit costs right. It's like the vitamin versus painkiller. Headache get people addicted to like the the ICS drugs. There's a lot of bad things about that addiction. But you're starting to see some of the fruit born in kind of the next market cycle. Where did you come in full time to criticize? So I guess what were the exposure points that before you made the switch and what finally made you take the leap and enjoying ripple in Hong Kong. I'm twenty thirteen. Bitcoin was kind of something you bought on your p. a. just to watch is almost like a plant in your kind of like it's GonNa either grow or it's GonNa die. None of us really have too much skin in this worry about it and the other aspect of it was you were seeing in beginning to see a lot of activity taking place from these self-sided analysts in Hong Kong. One of them being Arner Hayes. It was a good buddy back when he's at Georgia And other people are taking notice so it was. It was triggering the minds of these trader types. Who Getting to see there's real value in what you mentioned the Arab the speculation The ability to to get behind this budding marketplace apply what we already knew from a larger perspective so I kind of had a cheat sheet in seeing the twelfth chapter of the book before the forward was written And so I kind of knew how the book would end in. It would only be a matter of. Did everyone knew that story. Conclusion when Up Story or did they WANNA milk it for a little while because a few of us weren't around in the eighties when markets were roaring. So I took that as an interesting thing but I really jumped in in the summer of two thousand seventeen. I was at Silicon Valley Bank catering. A lot of these texts that were beginning to use bitcoin. As a means of moving money between a places like vima non in wire those are some of the budding names that I was hearing about is like. I'm going to be on the upside of that. I want to be sitting here. Just asking them if they're hedging their effects when I could be helping them move this forward. So that's where I I saw I have linked for ripple and popped up. Asked exactly what I had in terms of my experience. Oftentimes you see something in you got. That's not really aligned. But I'm the one that knows that so I'm GonNa go for
"Reach For The Sky!"
"Remember in our last episode. That was rich Dr Steven. It's just in time and space jump to Elgin Illinois in the year. Eighteen ninety six to no good near two wells had hoodwinked legendary sharpshooter. Annie Oakley into letting them Polish her world famous pistol which they plan to steal and sell on Ebay in the future. Now you too sure. You've handled firearms at four hour. Yes sure plenty of you can Polish. This pistol as good as me. Anything you can do I can do better can yes I can. I like your spoke kid. All right here you go. Shyness up while ahead out from my second show they make you do two shows a day. You know what they say. There's no business like show business. I see do you have to get tired going out this shooting twice a day now? I'm just doing what comes naturally. I guess why you sign that pistol up. I'll use my rifle for this show right here shining than you've ever seen it when you get back. This sounds good now. When she gets back she wants to see the pistol. I'll show it to her. All shined up. Of course. That's when you will distract her and I'll slip the gun into my pocket that's for you to figure out. I'm the evil mastermind. I can't possibly be expected to come up with everything. Dr Steven carry out their villainous plots. Let's turn our attention to our hero. Dr Floyd and his young protege Dr Graham Touch Floyd Buffalo Bill Cody Wild. West Show told us that we had to ride horses in tonight's performance. There's nothing we can do Dr Grant. We're going to have to ride horses in tonight's performance. But what about Dr Steve? Keep your eyes peeled for him. He's around here. Somewhere COMES BUFFALO BILL O. Hello Mr Cody Sir. No just what was it you want us to do. In the show You do or going to portray the robbers in the dead woods. Stagecoach robbery part of the show after an Oakland. Desert trick shots. We'll send the stage coats in for a lap or two around the ring. Then when I give the signal Youtube Herat off duns drawn and stop the stage coach in its tracks. Then you'll rob the folks on board holly. We are really going to be robbing them are we. Don't be a darn fool of car SNEHA. They're actors just lack you right. Sorry Oh you're a scout for the. Us Army Mr Cody. Sixty eight to eighteen seventy two was congressional medal of honor to wounded in action. Only words and even then it was only a scout. Boone wow I would love to be a scout. We'll kid I think you're a bit too young to be scout too young. Who's ever heard of a boy scout house? Lack any is just about finished with her. Sit You guys go sad. Look let's go get on our horses. Grant Mount their horses just as anti finishes remarkable display of marksmanship as she walks out of the arena. Dr Steven Richard are waiting for another excellent display. Miss Oakley thank you now. Where's my pistol I want to Gander at the job? You did Polish. Oh It's right here. See Ma Shan job. You boys really do Arganda. What does he say he's asking if we could go for a ride on that stage coach over there? You can hurry up though it's about two and out into the arena ugly Astros Dr Steven Featuring on board the stage coach just as it heads out into the main arena. It's an distraction Cajun. She completely forgot to take the pistol from me. And now when this little ride is back with VIP out of the stagecoach and back to the diamond spaceship data. Stephen featured are just moments away from succeeding. What they're planning to steal any pistol. Meanwhile Dr Floyd in Dutch grandmaster straight their horses at the entrance to the arena. All right. Let's get this show on the road. Puna your Bandanas in get out there. This is actually kind of fun. Dr Floyd who would like it Dr Grant Grant race out into the arena. Guns blazing links. Course the reason why. The site of stagecoach taking pullover to the occupants who are none other than Dr Steven Feature. Well well well look what we have here of Pesky no good vermin. It sucks shaped assisting. Please gentlemen don't hurt us. We just little and he's often. We would just going for a ride here. Nothing more. Well I reckon you won't get hurt as long as you hand over your money Pronto. Money hand over your go. All right Here take my money and he is my checkbook and credit cards. Take anything you'd like. Just don't take legendary shop shooter. Any Oakley's newly Polish pistol. I have hidden in my jacket pocket. Legendary sharpshooter Annie Oakley's newly Polish pistol in your jacket pocket. Do you know I don't who said that handed over partner or you'll be pushing up daisies. Okay all right here you go take it just. Please don't hurt US Malaysian. I want you to get out of this coach and get out of town. We ever see the Lexi you round these here parts again. We're GONNA lead now Stephen Pitcher High Taylor out of the stagecoach and the arena. The Light of the twelve thousand people in ten minutes. You the best vantage we've ever. Hey Josh thanks Mr Cody. Yeah you really something out there. I just realized those orphans got away with my newly Polish pistol or they doing Michaud. We got it right here. Any get your thank you. I show do appreciate it. You too have yourselves a permanent job if you lack. Thank you Mr Cody. But we wouldn't be happy just doing the same job day after day. There's people out there who need our help out. Your great right came a Sabi with that. Our Heroes Walk off into the sunset heading back to their time and spatial. Were those brave men bill. Sure in with little filler. Sure had a tiny hands race off into the time and space stream hurtling towards more adventure. Where Dr Floyd granted chicks wind up next ever put an end to counter. Steve's wrongful ways and will there ever been who doesn't come on Dr Floyd Small Head Greece? I get no respect at all
"duns" Discussed on Masters in Business
"I know that I have no idea if I pronounced that right. Barely spit it out That's true but But I have enough to think I know and I really haven't checked him while to figure out if I really know how to pronounce that well Amazon is actually a term that comes from Medicine and has to do with issues where because of a brain injury People are paralyzed. But don't know that they're paralyzed so really. Oh yes so for example if you If a person is paralyzed I believe it's the left arm and put a cup of water in front of them and say okay. Pick up the cup while the person can't move their arm other paralyzed. They can't move their arm. But if you ask the person they up against the cup they may some say something like I'm not thirsty. I want to pick up the cup that is. They have no awareness. Yeah sort of like the split brain experiments flip rate experts. They're exactly that where The The one side of the brain can point to the right object of but that's not the side of the brain that controls talking The controls verbal skills. But if you ask the person why did you point to that? They can come up with something. That is that's part of our brain is very good at at Interpreting How to understand novel situations so we can come up with justifications we camp with rationale for why we do what we do quite easily. Our brain is an incredible storyteller but You know incredible storyteller sometimes tell fiction and our brain is quite good at coming up with fiction at times That that's quite interesting. I didn't know you gonNa go where you WanNa go with The idea of of that injury and paralysis it started to remind me a little bit of the phases where people lose the ability to speak but they could sang or they can't right but they could still read and it seems like there's a very specific part of the brain that performs very specific functions. And if it's injured everything else related still works just that one skill seems to go away. That's right by the issue with a lot of physical maladies and our work can be thought of as a metaphorical extension of that too intellectual capabilities. a lot of people don't know the physical maladies that they've got so as people become hard of hearing the often don't know that they're becoming hard of hearing and so the wonder why everybody's mumbling for example a lot of people who are colorblind. Don't know their colorblind really. Because I've never not been colorblind. I had no idea I thought you would order like when you look at a stop light you can see what are people talking about with. Red Lights and green lights. They'll look to me. Does Not Register or is that apparently not because you have you've never experienced redder you've never experienced green so you don't know what you're missing when you mention everybody's mumbling when I turned fifty. I remember having this absolutely true. I had a conversation with my wife was sitting at the breakfast Table One Sunday and I don't know what's going on with the New York Times but they're using some cheaper paper. Look how fuzzy words are and and then I said Look The Wall Street Journal. It's the same thing and my wife says idiot. You need glasses. And I'm like what no no. I have perfect vision. She handed me her glasses. And I'm like oh I had no idea. My vision had decayed so much at the ripe old age of fifty one Some years ago. And it's that exactly the same thing you have no idea that. The gradual decays taking place. Don't that's right so so what else. Oh you working on your. Your field of study has very much Evolved since the original Dunning Kruger work. What what else are you looking at these days? A related idea that we've been looking at quite a bit is this idea of hypo cognition. Hypo HYPO cognition And The best way to explain it is if you don't know what cognition is congratulations. You've just experienced TYPO card okay. Hypoc mission is not having a concept if you will so not having the idea of unknown unknowns in the financial A lot of people invest. But they don't really have the concept of exponential growth or compound interest e compounding his most the probability and statistical things very counterintuitive. People just can't wrap their head around it and when you show people compounding charts. They're very often credulous incredulous that weight. This much money. Can I had a whole discussion about the number of 401k? Millionaires and person said well maybe years ago. But you couldn't do that now. Why can't you do that now? It's these silly got however many years it is and Here's what you're expected. Returns are over forty years oh NPS your contribution levels are are up. It's easier today than it was thirty forty years ago. But if you don't have the concept What when you were talking about seems alien foreign or a little bit of a con So but We're studying that in number ways because we're interested in for example. What if people don't have a concept of scientific rigor? They don't know all the rules that I have to live under for example to verify or make the case for any sort of conclusion that I wanNA reach and that turns out to be related to To perceptions out there in the world the first perception is scientists can say whatever they want. Ya People Really Think Perot Not a majority but a clear percentage of people believed that. Is that specific to this country? Recyclable that I don't know I've only studied it within this country And it's also related by the way to distrusted science. That you just you don't have to listen to scientists. What they have to say really isn't useful and that it all does trace back impart but important part to not knowing that how much work it is to reduce piece of scientific knowledge you. You don't have the idea of control condition random assignment I can go on and on You can't cherry pick People don't know these rules and as a consequence they thinks I just some professors in their office dreaming up a conclusion and then collecting some data to window-dressing for example and yet we use technology to such a great deal to people think these are like ooh look a magic box that I can speak to people on. Its magic do they. Not Get technology and engineering is based on fundamental science. I mean that seems pretty obvious. If Science doesn't work then how could you fly in a plane? How could you take medicine? How could use you know? There's we get into an elevator at least in cities every day. Is it a magic box or is there science behind it it just? It seems so hard to accept that people are really science. Skeptical I well. I agree but I assure you that. That percentage of people does exist. What percentage of people that you study are truly science skeptics? Well we're not using representative samples but in the samples we get and there are actually a better educated than the average. American is about twenty twenty five percent. Let's say I don't know what the real percentages because I haven't done anything. That's a good representatives snapshot let's say the United States but you have to understand that a lot of people I mean the Ignorance of the scientific method runs so deep that a lot of people don't understand that scientists collect data right They they don't understand. That's a that's the that's the process and that data have the final authority in which able to conclude in which are able to say it just doesn't appear to them so if you ask Students I'd say in college or in high school. Do they believe in oxygen or do they believe in the in the electron? They'll go. Yes yes why? And they don't experiment they don't say data of base. We see that's what everybody says. That's what my teacher says. That's what my parents say so for a lot of people The idea of data is not what they think about. Um they're basing their beliefs and what other people say by the way which is the same basis they use To believe in things like reincarnation or ghosts or Karma That is the basis for people. Scientific believes tends to be the same as the basis of their supernatural beliefs. So it's just whatever. The societal consensus is they're accepting. It's social proof that's exactly right and the one question before we get to my favorite question. The one thing I wanted to ask you earlier but I didn't get to was was comes back to the nineteen ninety nine paper blowing up becoming so popular after that happens. How did that affect your subsequent research? Did the fact the topics you pick the did affect the options you had available like what did what did this paper blowing up due to your subsequent research. Well for many years it didn't do anything because It was known but the Internet wasn't fully in place yet. It wasn't a thing yet. I think that's happened far. Much more recently So I went off studied whatever I studied But then the world sort of told me no we want you to look at this And that's okay Because this was always the paper I didn't know how to follow up really yes You have the the two thousand eighteen follow up. What else came out of this paper? Oh a number of things have come out of this paper. So the question is when people most vulnerable the Dunning Kruger. Affect And the answer is when they have an answer When they believe they have expertise or they can spin a yarn. If you will I mean there are times when you just simply cannot come up with an answer and you know that you don't know right You know when you're guessing and that's some recent work We now have under review. The people know when they're guessing The problem of the Dunning Kruger effect is when you don't think guessing And coming up with wrong answer It's led to this work on a HYPOCHONDRIAC. It's led to this work on Gullibility We're now looking at. Do people know when they really need? Ask for advice That's an important consequence but a lot of these questions really weren't formed in my head until I started interacting with people like you or reporters or people in the airport For example are people randomly stopping you to ask? Dunning KRUGER QUESTIONS. Well has happened. I mean there's no escaping the baggage carousel your prisoner of their own. No well luckily no one can see my little label on the luggage but If my name gets called you know to get a seat assignment or whatever something like that. occasionally personal come over and say are you that. I mean this is wild. So it's had that impact But but basically I mean let's say the last act of my research career and the world has told me this is what it wants me to look at. So we're I'm now really asking the question Do Re do people really not know what they don't know. And what implications have quite fascinating went went is that research coming out Hopefully soon to journal in an eventually book near you. Excellent all right so Let me jump to my favorite questions that we ask all of our guests feel free to go as long as short as you like with this sure and these are really designed to be telling us to who you are because we may not know who you are What was the first car you ever own year? Making model of the first Kara own was in one thousand. Nine hundred seventy six Ford Pinto a mint Julep Green Ford Pinto. So if anybody is interested you should google mint julep green Ford Pinto..
"duns" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Self insights roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing myself. The there was something in the book that just cracked me up. Which you don't normally get in an academic book Your special and it turns out now. Most of us are not special and we are wholly unaware of that. We've been told MOST OF OUR LIVES. How specially are tell us why so few of us are actually special. Well the problem is that Well if you look at the complete person each of us is special but if you put us in any situation or any circumstance where most mostly going to act like everybody else. Most of us are average. Most of us are average. Most of us are typical In any specific circumstance so if you aggregate all that all of who we are together we yeah. We are a special but when it comes to specific situations no or not special and so what that does leave people with. Though I is a people do have this idea that they are unique that they are exceptional and as a consequence. They can't yes. I'm just doing the check boxes. Yup Right of course absolutely and so what that means is that It turns out people have a good rough understanding of human nature. I'M NOT GONNA say it's perfect. That's by work but they do have a good understanding of human nature. The mistake they make is that they think they stand outside that nature that they are different. They're special that they're special. So for example we've done studies we asked There's going to be a food drive at your campus Let's say in a month. We'll you contribute to it And what percentage of people contribute to it? They're pretty good at nailing. The percentage of people on their campus are going to contribute to the food. Drive the rather good. These sort of figure at the situation is they can think about their experience. They come up with a good answer and that answer turns out to be right but when we asked them. Okay what are you GONNA do? Are you going to contribute? They way over estimate how much they're going to do the right thing. They're going to do the good thing that they're going to do the social thing Basically because they understand how the situation external forces will Prompt people to donate into not donate but they think they stayed outside those forces for them. It's just simply a decision. Do I want to donate or not and a lot of people want to donate so. Yeah I'm going to donate it. Turns out when the time comes. No they're subject to all these external forces that push against donation as was pushed for donation. So they they turn out to be typical just like everybody. Else so let. Let's talk about a related topic Again from the book about moral fortitude. You tell the story about being on radio show Around the time of the Clinton Peach Mint. I must trump impeachment. But this is this is twenty plus years ago The radio host goes off on a tirade about infidelity. And the more if you and failings of other people and you had at your fingertips a bunch of research about how everybody's expectations of their own moral superiority sort of fit into the dunning Kruger framework. We think we're much better at that than we really are. Oh that's true. That is because when you move to the moral domain the domain People definitely have this holier than thou attitude. I won't do it but other people will do it. If it's bad for example I would never Cheat on my beloved but other people of course are going to cheat on their beloved And it turns out. We did a number of studies down infidelity. But rather will you vote We'll be charitable you trade Will you Obey traffic laws For example and it turns out that people wildly overestimate themselves. That is a overestimate. How moral ethical and good they will be relative to what they think about other people and they also overestimate how moral and good. They're going to be relative to the reality When we actually Test either them or an equivalent group of people so The question for us is people tend to believe they're morally superior. Are they making a mistake about other? People are being too cynical about other people. Are they being too optimistic about the self and it turns out to be to my surprise and this is completely the reverse of what I expected people wrong about themselves exactly because they think they're special But so so. They're not being cynical about the rest of humanity. They pretty much have them nailed. They just think they're better than everybody. That's right with maybe one or two exceptions People are surprisingly accurate About the general rate about human nature in general how other people are GonNa be buffeted around by external forces? They just think they're for themselves are exempt from those forces. All right so we have. Meta cognition issues when we're trying to do a specific task that requires skills. There's a similar issue with our own sense of self an ethics and moral turpitude What other areas are subject to the Dunning Kruger effect? Well what else there might be. But is that everything is in no thoughts in action and everything else is leftover. No there's also the future if you think so people are also over optimistic about their prospects if you will really oh absolutely That is People really underestimate how long it's GONNA take to complete projects The underestimate Or how long it's GonNa take for their business to be profitable They When they're thinking about the future they tend to base their planning and their ideas on the most optimistic scenario rather than the most pessimistic scenario or maybe even the most realistic scenario so There are things we missed not only in terms of competence and character but also about our prospects. So how do we explain that I could imagine? I could concoct a lovely narrative tale as to why having an optimism bias is good for the species. Even if you're the guy from cave seventy three that doesn't come back from the mammoth ons. Everybody else has foreign meat for the winter. Or is this just a crazy narrative story or is there some evolutionary component to a well there isn't evolutionary component to it in a D and adaptability component to it? But it's complicated so the fact that people commit to things far too optimistically really does create those things. I mean Books written Businesses are developed movies are made Even though the people who start them out did far more work and are now far more depressed and tired than they ever imagined they would be at the end of those projects but If they had only been prepared for how long it was GONNA TAKE. They probably would come up with a better product. A better business in a better book So things get made But people will fail or they won't produce really what they're capable of producing very interesting all of which leads to one big question which is why do we seem to make the same errors in judgment. Is it something about the way we learn? Is it something about our fragile egos? Why as a species are we unable to get by some of these fairly obvious flaws? Well I think there are two things involved. One comes from the holier than thou work. Witches were overweight in our intentions and the powerful personality to produce things that that's part of what's going on when the power of our personality represent Becau- well I will do this because I want to do this and I That is part of. That's something that we overestimate. The other is the competence ankle. Which is we really. Don't know what we don't know and when Rumsfeld unknown unknowns the world is filled with unknown unknowns and And we don't know well not only do. We not know them. We don't pay attention to the fact that we don't know them. I mean too many people out there the idea of unknown unknowns still novel concept But it is something that Run now they don't know what they don't know but there is a lot of work showing that people just don't pay attention to what they don't know when they're making predictions or when they're planning things out they don't sit back and ask. Okay what is it that I don't know here? What Still Open What are the possibilities? That I'm not considering only that am I considering the fact that there are unknown unknowns and I should be planning for that possibility so you mentioned earlier planning i. I saw something kind of interesting around January nineteenth of this year. That's the date. When most people's New Year's resolutions fail does that sound remotely plausible. Or is it just Something else from the Internet surprised that our resolutions last that long. Oh really no kidding. So so why that raises the next question if we have all the best intentions and we want to fill in the blanks. Stop Smoking Exercise Lose Weight. Whatever it is. Why is it that when we make these sorts of plans all as a group on the same date every year? I can't imagine why would that not work well. It doesn't work because the world is waiting for US. In some sense it does have is unknown unknowns and it does have external forces that are going to defeat us and what we tend to do is we tend to focus on our plans. What am I going to do What are my intentions? What are the steps that I'm going to take what we really should do is interview? People tried to do this before and find out what the real difficulties are. They're going to be many difficulties that we haven't anticipated They're going to be many difficulties that we don't know about And not only that. There are probably tricks strategies tactics plans. We can make that. We wouldn't think of but someone else has thought of them and they actually work so we actually consulted with people who've Travel the road before us. We would do a much better job. I think anticipating The difficulties we have lionhead as well as being better armed with strategies that have a better chance of success all right so let me push back on that a little bit. The Diet Industry is like a twenty six billion dollar sector of the economy and they all have the magic Bullet and yet everybody in this country seems to be increasingly overweight Diabetes is a problem. There are all these weight related issues if we could speak to other people and have that conversation who have been successful. How does that work given the vast numbers of people Who Need Assistance? Losing Weight That's a very good question by the way evolutionary. This is a very novel task for. Having extra weight is a good thing if you have a shorter lifespan. We now live beyond that APP. That adaptation I think cholesterol was a big problem. Ten thousand years ago. That's right and probably wasn't a big problem. Even up to one hundred years ago getting calories was the up to very very recently So as a species we are dealing with a very novel task In trying to lose weight I think that There are some common sense that People can do But one of the things they can do is reset two things. The first is. What's a realistic Outcome in terms of losing weight But also having more realism in terms of how much effort And how much time is going to take to get there for example And also into things more in terms long term as opposed to the short term. I mean a lot of people think. How do I lose weight this month? Now the question is. How do you keep the weight? How'd you lose weight and keep the weight off for years and years and years But I think as a certainly society I think it's taking awhile for the collective wisdom to form because it does turn out to be a particularly difficult task so my I go for an annual physical every year my gp is also a cardiologist. And he's one of these old school doctors when they're don't the tests you go into their office you sit down and you have a conversation and we go through everything. It's all good and he says you have any questions for me. I'm like yeah I'd like to drop a few pounds. What do you suggest? And he very conspiratorially looked over each soul shoulder and then lean forward and whispered to me he less food and I'm like doc you know there's a giant industry who's whole purposes to not share that advice but it turns out to be good advice. Yes so eating a little less food. You can loosen wait. It's it's It's quite fascinating and yet it's hard to do than you would imagine then certainly than I imagined. No I think that's right. Well certainly in the United States. It's harder What I think is interesting now. This isn't psychology is. That's just my personal. Life is every so often spent time in Germany And I always lose weight in Germany without even trying. And why is that? Do you not like bratwurst and beer or Well a German cuisine is more than that not much more by the way I do more than that but it's all A lot of Schnitzel. When you don't know anything else to save choice It's a safe choice but I think most Well in Germany. The portions are small There the rest of the world portions of small. That's exactly right and that's an issue Most of the calories in Mueller conveyed by the sauce in the inevitable beer. You're going to drink right or the wind. You're going to drink There's also much more walking. Oh really bike riding. Yeah but can you walk off that many calories? I mean if you're Michael Phelps sure but for the rest of US. We're not putting in three hours a day of of sweating certainly true but if you just walk.
"duns" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Extra special guest this week. Is David Dunning? He is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan where he focuses on the psychology underlying human misbelief. He is best known for his Nineteen Ninety nine study with colleague. Justin Kruger unskilled and unaware of it. How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to self inflated assessments. Dunning Kruger showed that people who were the worst performers significantly overestimated. How good they were. He is also the author of the book. Self insight roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing yourself David dunning welcome to Bloomberg. It's a pleasure to be here. I have been looking forward to this conversation for a long time. I am a giant fan of your work and I have to start with a really simple question. What's the origin of the study? What led you to a thesis that we're really bad at self evaluation. Well if you're an academic You meet up with many students and you meet up with many colleagues who say outrageous things and you just have to wonder. Don't they know what they're saying is Let me say this diplomatically. Odd Suboptimal and over the years. I just was intrigued with finding out whether or not people knew when they were saying things that were outrageous. Were obviously wrong on the face of it and so One Day Justin Kruger. Walk in my office. Said he wanted to study with me. And I said why. Have this high High Risk Reward. Study to do it has to do with the question. I've often wondered about and so he did the first original series of studies and were astonished. At how little people who didn't know didn't know about how little they knew so. I was on the impression that most academics have a thesis in there some data supporting it and when they go out and test it they have a little confirmation bias and they see what they expected to see. You're saying you guys were just shocked by the results of the study. That's right. I mean we expected it to work because if you think about the logic of it has to work. The question was one of magnitude When a student was failing the course for example or giving them a pop quiz on grammar. did They have some inkling that they're performing really poorly and the answer was maybe a little but not much and they were missing their true performance level by a mile by mile. So so how much of this that? That really raises A number of questions. So I I love the phrase Meta cognition the ability to self evaluate your skill set and your findings essentially find that this is highly correlated with an underlying scale. Whenever I try and explain this to a layperson it's pro golfers. Know how good they aren't where the weaknesses in their games are amateurs have no idea that they're not remotely as good as they think they are. Is that a fair oh I'm a perfect example of this so when I go up golf I often end up in the in the rough night when I drive the ball and The nicely the ball going the rough night. Go out to find it later on. And I'm always over guessing how far the ball went in the rough fight about twenty thirty yards. And I know this yet every time I drive the ball into the rough. I'm looking in the wrong place So yeah I mean amateur. Golfers don't know such terms as course management for example There's a number of concepts and number ideas. They simply don't have available to them and as a consequence they think they're they're doing the best possible job when factors a whole realm of competencies. They don't know about. They're just wholly unaware of what they know. That's right so you begin the the nine thousand nine hundred nine paper with a amusing anecdote. Tell us about the Pittsburgh Bank robber McArthur wheeler well. Mcarthur wheeler was a Spirent a bank robber. Who decided to go out and rob but needed a disguise. And he had heard that if you rub your face with lemon juice it renders the face Fuzzy or even a of invisible to bank security cameras and so he actually did tested out. He actually rubbed his face with juice at home pointed a polaroid camera or whatever At at his face and then he wasn't there he missing. The camera is st invisible about. He thought he wasn't visible. He went out with no actual disguise rob to Pittsburgh area banks during the daytime was immediately caught on security cameras. those tapes broadcast on the news and he himself was caught before the eleven o'clock news hour and he was incredulous because as he said. I wore the juice. I wore the juice so Thus ended his career of these sorts of mistakes. We make all the time we think we we have a strategy. That's going to work and to our surprise the world has different Lesson for us to learn so. Meta cognition sometimes. Looks a little bit like overconfidence. How similar or different are the two well Meta? Cognition is a number of things. A number of skills that underlie Being able to evaluate your judgments Evaluate your decision so sound often. It's overconfidence usually it's overconfidence It can be under confidence thinking. You can't do something that you can do It might be over-confidence her under conference but does your confidence rise and fall with the accuracy of your judgement. So is there a relationship Whether or not your conferences is a speed dominator that overstates where understates how well You're doing But there it also is knowing how to make a judgment Knowing when to stop thinking in start acting so knowing when There's a doubt that you really should be following up on. So over-confidence is a phenomenon. I think lies within a whole family of skills that you can call medic cognition which is basically skill in knowing how to evaluate your thinking and control your thinking quite fascinating. Let's talk a little bit about your nineteen ninety nine paper unskilled and unaware of it. This blew up in someone on most famous psychology papers. Ever when when you in Kruger were writing this. Did you have any idea that it was going to be this explosive No I thought it was going to have trouble being published because it actually has a unusual piece of work given the usual structure of paper in the Journal wheeled submitted to so the fact that it blew up was a big surprise the fact that it got published was also big surprises very very happy because internally. I thought it was a good piece of work but I didn't know if the world was going to agree so I I've seen your work misstated in a variety of ways. I'm sure you have also the one that I notice. All the time is stupid. People don't know they're stupid and while that could very well be true that is not the basic theme of your research. Is it no We were very clear from the outset. That the dunning Kruger effect is something that can visit anybody at any time. That is each of us. Has our own pockets of Incompetence and we just don't know when we wander into them so it Often the one mistake that people make is thinking about the dunning. Kruger effect is about them. Those as you say stupid people out there and the paper really was really about us and our cells and being Vigilant about the fact that sometimes we're GONNA wander into our own little personal disasters not knowing that a disaster is imminent so people trying to explain. Dunning Kruger. Themselves are suffering from the dunning Kruger. Oh in many different ways. So I if you're two different ways that People get it wrong. I is to is to think about other people and it's not about me The second is thinking that Incompetent people are the most confident people in the room. That's not necessarily true. That shows up in our data but they're usually less confident than the really competent people. But not that much but the real thing that I think is fascinating and this is only half five years. Is that if you google. Images of the dunning Kruger affect the charts. The chart well we didn't those aren't our charts so you didn't do mount stupid or the Valley of despair. No we did not that. It has nothing to do whatsoever with her. Ninety-nine paper or anything that we did subsequently and Do note of that. I I think it's it's delicious. That a lot of people think of the dining Krueger fact. They're talking about the dunning Kruger fact. They're videotaping toxin joining perfect. And what they're talking about is not the dunning Kruger effect They're suffering the effect about the effect itself. that's the first the second note though is given this situation we did face a dilemma in the lab. How do we fix this? How do we correct this? And so This is true in part We decided the most efficient ethical thing to do to steal the idea from the Internet Because the other problem with the idea that not being done in Kruger factors. It's it's more interesting so but we still the idea tested. It turns out that Mount Stupid Valley of despair a plateau V- enlighten time. Course if people see that we pretty much get that Pattern as we pays people through a completely novel task so so Internet is right so in other words and I'm I'm intrigued and fascinated by this. You never put out a chart. I always assumes that that Chart Hata come from your data because what are people just throwing lines and making it up and ps it intuitively. Looks right you would assume hey when so I play. Tennis only started recently to less than ten years ago. And when you start out and you don't hit the ball and you feel like if some control and you have some skill and and then and you're working your way up that mount stupid and then when you actually start to develop some skill not that I really have. But I'm better than it was five years ago. You realize Oh. I didn't know what the Heck I was doing. Just Ball and getting lucky when it catches the tape and all of a sudden you realize. Oh I'm way down this and and then you continue playing you get a little better in a little better. I don't know if this is over rationalization but it intuitively seems to make sense slow. Not only does it intuitively makes sense. It turns out to make sense And in twenty eighteen paper with Carmen Sanchez. We were able to demonstrate that Basically what happens is when you start a task and what we did is we had people. We put people. In a post apocalyptic road where they had to without supervision but with feedback diagnose who was infected with Zombie disease. Hoping that that wasn't something that people had experience with And basically what happens is if you're a beginner you start out way at the beginning. Being appropriately cautious. You really don't know what you're doing and you knew it but the problem is is that you have a few successes. They're probably due to luck than skill. Do you think you have it That is people Arrive at a theory Based on data that which is far too early far too sparse and far too unreliable. But I think I got it and then the next phase they have to go through is realizing Oh that theory really doesn't work And so we've been able to track that into show that In a number of studies So the Internet is right I'm very pleased with its intuition of this one But it is a little bit odd to get credit for an insight that we never had. But we're very happy to steal so essentially when you run the data showing The correlation between skill and Ability to self evaluate you end up with a Chart. That looks in his two thousand. Eighteen to paper looks remarkably similar to all the various pop. Psychology announced stupid charts. That are out there as you gain. Experience you. Unfortunately start with a burst of overconfidence. I got this. You know you don't and then Experience basically is correcting your Flattering impression of your skill as time goes on until at some point. Learning stops because of Experiences not new or learning does experience human limits but that That is the pattern by the way. If anybody flies airplane the they perfectly understand this pattern. It's not beginning pilots. Who are the most dangerous? It's pilots. Let's say six hundred eight hundred Flight Hours They.
Laundry Between Emails: Working From Home Goes Viral In The Time Of Coronavirus
"All right today's other big story around the world companies are asking their employees to work from home because of the corona virus outbreak. Some people love it other people don't. Npr's Yuki Noguchi Talk to people about their experiences. Early last Tuesday Cindy. Ruiz got an email. They're just shutting down the Office for the Week. Corona virus cases cropped up near the San Mateo Office of Dun and Bradstreet Res Works in sales for the financial data company for many the widespread. Embrace of remote work is a welcome change. They've always wanted they're reacting on social media the way kids celebrate snow days. No commutes flexible schedule. Home-cooked lunch. Ruiz however is in that camp. Sure she says there are some perks. If you could call it that I did do laundry I clearly. I'm doing laundry. The Corona virus is putting remote work to a gigantic test. The sheer scale of it is unprecedented throughout China. Italy Japan and South Korea workers have been on lockdown last week. The same happened in Seattle Amazon facebook. Microsoft and Google all told employees there to remain home. Twitter and payment company square are also working remotely. Ruiz says she misses things at the office. Like your special headset. And her big screen computer. Also her home. Wifi is neither fast nor secure enough to access some critical websites. Most of all. She misses her colleagues. This past week reminds release of her last job where she worked from home every day. That was the reason why I left that position and went to this one. I'm a person that needs to be in the office. Remote work is teaching companies a lot. About how well? They function when they're not altogether about a week ago. Jonathan Wasserman told employees to work from home he. Ceo Of Square foot a New York Commercial Real Estate Company. The last time that happened was a year ago when the office Internet went down said Okay work from home and two-thirds employs for like go but my laptops at work this time he wants to be prepared personally. Wallstrom is no fan of remote work. He says it's impossible to read a room over a conference line. Plus about a third of square foot staff are brokers they tour buildings with clients if all the sudden they said. You can't have face to face meetings with people who'd be hard for us to bunch of those transactions. In fact remote work isn't always possible. Hourly workers don't get paid if they don't work for example. Those in retail manufacturing or healthcare usually must be physically present to work. But it's a huge perk for people like tristen yet. Gaillot is a field manager for a and loves working from home in Toledo for me. It's a lot easier to work in silence. I also appreciate the fact that working from home. I can kind of migrate from room to room. If I'm not feeling super productive in one room get says it can be isolating so relying heavily on tools like slack and Webcams are key. I get a lot of face time so I don't feel like I'm like socially isolated at all. I also realize not. Everybody is built for this. If you're very extroverted which is not me. You probably would not enjoy this as much as I do. Guy Yet hopes the corona virus will help promote working from home if employers. Don't have to come in. They're not paying to commute. They're not adding to the carbon footprint. they don't have to buy or bring a lunch. It's not clear whether the corona virus will change Wasser. Strums mind about remote work. His Real Estate Company ordered loads of hand sanitizer and told employees to come back to the office. I don't believe people are productive at home at the same time. He worries about his wife. Who is seven months pregnant and commuting to her office. And we'll see how much longer we keep sending her to do that. Especially because she can meets on the subway perhaps he'll change his mind about remote work again. You GUCCI NPR news.
Bill Clinton says Lewinsky affair helped "manage my anxieties"
"Bill Clinton according to the Washington examiner says Monica Lewinsky affair helped quote manage my anxieties well sure I can I got a little anxiety send in and in turn what you're under present on stage got any twenty year old interns around here that I could Bill Clinton said his extramarital affair with Monica Lewinsky was a way for him to take his mind off of stress at work things I did to manage my exhaust here for years different totally different person that I was a lot of that stuff twenty years ago mall hole he can now you can do about do you have some of that stuff really where some of the Bill Clinton talking about he's still sounds like Bill Clinton Dunning it was bad but it wasn't like I thought let's see how can I think about the most stupid thing I could possibly do and
Coronavirus could impact 5 million companies worldwide, new research shows
"Cases of coronavirus continues to grow there's new research out today about the economic impact dun and Bradstreet estimates more than five million businesses around the world could be affected nearly half are based in Hong Kong and another nineteen percent in the US at least fifty one thousand companies have at least one direct supplier in the affected region of China we've got more about how public health workers get a handle on a global pandemic like cove ID nineteen could become it's all under a Lexus skill if you've got an echo device just say make me smart and take a
"duns" Discussed on This is War
"<Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> Uh <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> just as with so many <Speech_Male> of the people who have reached <Speech_Male> out to us over <Speech_Male> the last two years <Speech_Male> just in dunning <Speech_Male> really wanted to <Speech_Male> honor his friends. <Speech_Male> Who didn't make it home home <Speech_Male> as <Speech_Male> we bring this show too <Speech_Male> close? I would like <Speech_Male> to thank all of the <Speech_Male> men and women who have <Speech_Male> shared their stories <Speech_Male> with me <Speech_Male> the interviews <Speech_Male> that make up this show <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> often run between between <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> two and three <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> hours and I felt <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> a genuine bond <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> with each of the people <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> has been <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> kind enough to share <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> some of the darkest <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> moments of their <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> lives with me. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> And with you you. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> I'd <Speech_Male> also like to thank all <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> of the people who I interviewed <Speech_Male> but whose stories <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> were beyond my ability <Speech_Male> to tell. <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> Finally <Speech_Male> I'd like to thank <Speech_Male> all of you. Who are listening <Speech_Male> right now? <Speech_Male> It's been a privilege <Speech_Male> to be part of your <Speech_Male> podcast experience <Speech_Male> and I'm humbled <Speech_Male> by the enthusiasm <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> so many of you have <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> demonstrated for <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> this show <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> especially my friends <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> and colleagues adding incongruity <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> to this point. <Speech_Male> This is war has <Speech_Music_Male> been my life's work. <Speech_Male> Thank <Speech_Male> you for making that possible <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Male> as you listen <Speech_Male> to this. I'm already <Speech_Male> working on my next <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> chauffeur incongruity <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> so please <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> stay. Subscribe <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> to be among the first <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> people notified. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> It <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> will be different from this <Speech_Music_Male> war but hopefully <Speech_Music_Male> nearly as compelling <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> if if <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> you'd like to stay in touch with <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> me or interested <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> in my other work <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> I'm at <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> by Tony Russo <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> on twitter <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> thanks <Speech_Music_Male> again. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> It's been an honor <Speech_Music_Male>
"duns" Discussed on This is War
"So we had gone off of. We got off a post and By this time the son was up. We all were eager to find out you know if he was okay or not and I think the majority of us had thought like Oh. He's you know he's going to be fine. You know he's going to be okay and Than to hear that he had passed was pretty rough sucked. The one thing about that. That really stands out was is over at. He doesn't know him. He was one of the happiest people you'd ever met. You Know He. He turned every shit situation into Laughing and joking it was pretty funny because they actually got him to laugh and smile. You know while they were working on him does like the one memory I have is you know. We're we're sitting downland laying down fire and then you know everything stopped for just a second. We heard Oh you know you know his mild form you know Joe is okay. Can you smile for me. Any it smiled smiled. That was a one like key memory that I remember from that. It's hard because you can't let your emotions get the best to you. You know. I remember number one. We found out that broke down and started crying and We all like you know consoled each other things like that and we had to go back to work getting back to work meant getting the area where was killed cleaned up as dunning said there was no telling whether the ID planted there was incidental or planted specifically Lee as part of a larger attack. Either way the odds were that other common passages now had ID's and that wasn't good for anyone. So the marines patrolled the area more thoroughly trying to find I E D's before the local children did a couple of weeks later we got until they were there was an iud over kind of like in that same general area area where Obama had stepped on. Idee so our next mission was to go there and clear it you know. The locals were worried about their kids. We did the best we could the to let the locals that we were there to help and try to make the area safe as possible and that we you know we cared because we did you know we wanted to go there and we all have kids do do a lot of us had kids and you know we want the best for our kids. So that's what we were trying to give the best for them in their families. It was very early in the morning that they like a three o'clock in the morning. We knew that going into this area it was like a Hornet's nest of that A Oh we left early in the morning because we knew that it they would set up for us if they knew we were leaving you like during the day or something and we were cross through field and we had gone through this field many times at four and there always up footbridge there that we had us many times at four as like. You know what we're not gonNA take this footbridge time was of the essence you know. We had to get there before the John Ghana to make sure that we were set up so as like. Hey Look we're going to halt the patrol here. I'm going to sweep up me. My point are going to sweep up. You know the canal to find another place to cross. We're not GONNA Footbridge. So we halted the patrol. We started searching for an area where we could cross. We finally found a place and we had a lot of people with us. We are taking the the backup with us. We had another squad with us. There were a lot of people with us. We had an P with us which is the Afghan National Police. We had an a the Afghan national army. Couple of those guys are interpreters everything you know. We just had the everybody there. It was cold it was dark. We couldn't see shit you you know except for what we had with our NBC's so we had gone up probably about fifty meters away from this footbridge raptor. My pointed crossed Justin. He made it across and is like okay. Hey Man on three catch me because I was carrying it a whole bunch of crap. I was pretty weighed down and so I was like one two. The three there was just like this. Boom it was like straight out of a movie there's a giant flash and then that's really all your member as dunning said. It was cold in dark in the early morning. And there was no scenario where any member of the contingent was able to cross the canal without getting wet back at the footbridge. One of the Anna guys had grown inpatient and a little incredulous about the potential dangers of the footbridge. Especially when weighed against the prospect of waiting into freezing cold water. He decided to take his chances. Crossing the bridge setting off an ID with the concussed of power to knock donning fifty meters upstream unconscious then it came back to and woke up or whatever the cases and looked around and it was just shit was nuts again. Looked overn Brin Gooch whatever guys got hit in the face with shrapnel and always always a flashlight on him and there was blood everywhere and judd was standing there next to him. I'm trying to calm down Joe screaming or I'm sorry. A Gooch was screaming and then after that I was just like the entered start piling up like I said there it was chaos again. We didn't get shot or anything like that but there are a lot of people. Her lot of people injured so we started getting accountability may share what is okay and then we found Dominos Domino was He was dead. I don't know exactly what happened. That killed him but something from the ID you know obviously obviously killed him at said injured just kept going up and going up it was crazy the MP dad step on the idea we found him about one hundred meters away A.. And the only thing left and then was pretty much torso and I remember coacher. He was our squad leader. You know at the time coacher. Somebody else had picked the sky up and and it was just as torso rebound. This guy's face it on body parts all over the place so we had to play him in a body bag and carry him back. Four of US carried him back and then We had to get a chopper. And they're you know to get our wounded out of their garage and Williams had got sprayed in the face and he he couldn't see He got peppered in the face. Pretty good wish Dirt and travel and stuff like that and then Obviously we had to get dumbest on there as well. So yeah we we had to get chopper and there and so the mission continued. I mean myself coacher and when they told us that we needed to go back as we got knocked out by this I d you know unconscious so we went back to the five and the rest of the guys continued on with the mission. The anxiety diety of being out of the fight was tough on the three marines recovering from their injuries. And it only heightened after the company lost another. Marine dunning was relieved to get back doc with his guys doing patrols ferreting out. Id's and finally working with the Marines who had come to replace them so they could head home for definitely. Ready Tab done now. You know we lost a lot of guys a lot of awesome guys and dumb. Everybody just wanted to to just go home at this point you know ever. We had our job to do. But you know we're ready to Ready to go is starting to wind down. You're starting to get a little anxious. You know you have two months left than a month within your dislike fuck. It's gone by so slow now. The last couple of days were actually probably the hardest because being in a leadership role you had to go and go on the next patrols with the unit that year you know replacing you and I disliked fuck. You know we're going back out there and all the other guys are staying back you know to Continue their stuff ready to go home and here you are back on patrol. Show everybody you know this. Is this area. Stay away from this area. It's even more tense because because now you're like man that made it this far. You know I don't WanNa get I don't WanNa get fucked up on the last patrol. You know I remember on one patrol. We started I started taking fire. And this guy just was like he kept poking standing up and shit like that trying to find out where they were coming from. And we're like get the fuck downing. I'm going to grab him like threw him like behind. Cover like what the fuck are you deal and get the fuck down and we will get you know get an attic and take care of this threat. He was just standing there. This kind of dumbfounded at what was going on. So it's like I said When you go out on patrol with these guys that are replaced? Knew a lot of them are her. They're not combat hardened at all they're just like how we were when we got there. You know it's not any seen really any combat. We were brand new to this and I always always give the analogy that we were now at the beginning when I told you about that British guy who was stabbed at the ground trying to find the Saudi that was us and we were there. The new guys is looking at him going. Oh my God. He's fucking crazy as they headed home. Dunning was beginning to feel a little ambivalent about his career as a marine but with the excitement of getting back back to the US the future was still hypothetical. He had no idea how quickly the future would become the present though and what he would have to face before he could settle with his time in Afghanistan.
"duns" Discussed on This is War
"This episode is sponsored in part by Bespoke Post. We all have a sense of our style but sometimes sometimes getting a handle on the best way to express it can be tedious. The folks at bespoke post understand that and have put together a monthly box filled with awesome things. You want and things. You didn't know you needed until you got them. The themed boxes of awesome tied together just really elegant items that both expand upon and help amplify or personal style. My most recent box was themed. Cask this box of awesome came with an oak barrels for aging my own cocktails. Lots of people use it to mellow a harsher sure whiskey or to infuse vodka or gin to their own specifications. I made a batch of Manhattan's using Amaro instead of sweet vermouth and it's aging as we speak every Friday I treat myself to a little taste and when the flavor is the way I wanted to be put into the included core top bottle and come up with my next signature cocktail. And that's the other part of the theme. This is for people who are willing to wait for something a little bit better. Each box of awesome is less than fifty dollars but contains at least seventy dollars worth of gear here the way it works. Is You just go to box of awesome dot com and answer some very broad questions about your style or the style. You're trying to cultivate the people at bespoke riposte then put together a box of items. They believe best suits you. On the first of each month you'll get an email confirming what they're sending. You can change the items Adams or colors or choose not to have a box that month at all. The thing is though that you're engaged in the process of defining your style to receive twenty percent off your first subscription in box Goto box of awesome dot com and enter the code war at checkout. That's box of Awesome Dot Com Code War for twenty percent off. If your first box bespoke post themed boxes for people who give a damn.
"duns" Discussed on This is War
"War Looking back on bootcamp is an interesting enterprise. Most recruits are not yet twenty years old when they have the experience France and the essence of it can be hard to capture like so many people looking back on themselves as children. There's a fondness for the past that maybe it didn't deserve for marines though and especially for combat veterans. Even the worst days of boot camp are amusing. In retrospect I just call. It wasn't for me you know I went there and I just They really enjoy it. I did it was getting anything out of it so decided to take another path and like I said I I knew I was going to join the Marine Corps. I just didn't know when. Yeah my mom you know she. She definitely was concerned because I told her you know. She asked me what I wanted to do. And I said well you know I want to be in the infantry. I WanNa go do that. So she added concerns and she was worried but overall she supported me one hundred percent. She never tried to Give me you know not do it or anything like that. went to Paris island and the first day of bootcamp was actually kind of funny. They do their typical. You know screaming at. You're getting off the bus on the footprints all that kind of stuff and then and they send you through The doors for the first time. Then you go get your gear. Get your haircut but I remember when I got there. You know I'm going to get my haircut and they they go real fast to get everybody through and I remember. My hair was a little bit longer. And they went to cut my hair and They missed a spot so I had a big old patch natch in the back of my head that they had missed and you know the JOE started. Were Kinda like dragging me around by. That was pretty funny. You look back at it now and you just like man The time it's sucking I didn't want to be dragged around with my hair. They thought that they thought was funny. Apparently you know they were grabbing on it and you know come this way and go that way and sadly little rat tail for like the first twelve hours before they finally fixed it. I had to cut it off with scissors out of my sewing kit. DUNNING had signed an extended contract attract enlisting for five years as infantry security forces. It would mean training beyond the regular school of infantry but he felt like it would give him an edge in the post marine world where he hoped to get a job as a police officer. Security forces often have two years of specialized work but as two thousand six ended and the US prepared for the two thousand and seven Iraq surge infantrymen were in higher demand than security force details so dunning and a dozen or so other guys were pulled from the talent shuffled back into the regular regular infantry with the two eight they had just gotten back from Iraq and they had a pretty crappy deployment when they were there so that was another little culture shock back when we got there as well. 'cause we had really not all the stuff about war that we knew about. We'd seen in movies or documentaries. Whatever and these guys had just gone? I'm back and they had a pretty bad deployment. They lost a bunch of guys and they were eager train us but at the same time they are still trying to deal with off all their emotions and stuff like that so you know everybody's hissed off and you know you have all these new guys joining all these boots and you don't WanNa be a boot sucks but everybody's GonNa go through it. Aw just hearing the stories and things like that knowing that we were getting ready to go do that too was said is just kind of like damn. You know we're here. It's time to go so we pretty much knew. We were going on Iraq when we get to two eight like we're slated for next appointment and we immediately started doing the workup so we knew right away that we were going to To Ramadi in Ramadi was an extremely dangerous place you know. They caught collusion number. Two very deadly Very hostile environment. And that's what we that's what we were prepping for. You know. We went over there thinking that there was gonna be fighting every day was going to be Hell but we got there and not being that you know we we essentially just went out and found. Id's and we were more like police officers there than anything else. We were just kind of like okay. security force for them but people Ramadi the two eight lawsuits guys to an Aidi attack during the transition out. But dunning was relatively insulated in from the Ramadi he was expecting it was something of a disappointment at the time. Missing the chance to fight and being relegated to a glorified police patrol. which ironically was what he would've been doing any way if he hadn't been in Iraq? Still he came home with a sense of unfinished business and a focus on a long term career as a marine. A knew you were going back. I didn't know if we're going back to Iraq or Afghanistan but I felt more like I'm thankful that you know as bad as it sounds. You know we add. We'd lost two Marines but it could have been a lot worse. I guess in hindsight so I counted as a win a lot of people they want to be part of that. You know. Combat Action Ribbon Club. I guess it's kind of like a like a little club that everybody wants to be part of but I think everybody would much rather have their friends here. I was actually. I was actually ready you to go the long haul you know twenty years and get out but nothing ever goes according to plan so yup. I'm going to be a lifer and I was ready to go like. Let's get this workup. So we can angle back and we had a job to do and We needed to you. Know do I- jobs so I was. You know we got back. I was like well. Let's get ready to go to the next one. We didn't get told we were going Afghanistan until we had just completed are combined arms exercise in California. We we had gotten done. We had our little debrief and it showed up and said hey you know we know you guys did this. Whole workup for Iraq but We're actually going to send another unit to Iraq and you guys are going to Afghanistan. I guess they selleck. We're more combat ready than a unit. That was supposed to be going there but we are grateful. That's what we wanted. We wanted to go to Afghanistan. We knew if we went to Iraq. We're GONNA have another deployment like we did. Prided added that. Nobody wanted that. We all wanted to go into fight. The good fight you could say if the marines were surprised by how different Ramadi was when compared with their expectations nations Afghanistan certainly would meet them camp bastion. A British base in the Helmand province still was mostly under construction in two thousand nine and as the Marines were beginning acclimatized to the heat. They were also getting a real sense of what it would be like. Once they started their mission out beyond the wire they stuck us in the very back of the base we stayed in these giant white tents. There was really nothing I mean it was just a giant base and then you know on the other side. They had a few things built up. We got on some the jobs and they sent us down to With a British were at we met up with them and They started taking us out on patrols and stuff like that it was cool. They were awesome. They were really cool. People people you know they had 'em are as we Murray's would swap Mao. We talk share stories and it was like hanging out with your buddies. You know they were awesome. People we are on a night patrol with the British and he was sweeping. He's gotTa hit here and my point man was with him. The guy that was doing the sweeping in British guy that you know you could tell they've they've been there for a while already because he just got on. The ground started digging proud and away with his little K-bar they're just try to find US ide- and we're all holy Shit. What's this guy doing? He's crazy we so we all started backing up and so it was kind of like A. That was kind of like a funny moment. We're just like this guy is absolutely crazy. Just trying to produce thing there. We're just out on a patrol role and started seeing things like we started finally like mortars here and there and then I'll honestly we just started getting shot at and we you know we took cover and while we were there they would would just shoot at you and then run so it was kind of like a game of cat-and-mouse shoot at you Ron. And that was pretty much it for the hold old appointment so it was really frustrating. The shooting in running would dominate their entire deployment but it was also part of what they expect it. Their mission was to keep pushing out beyond where any American forces had been and to disrupt Taliban operations capturing or killing as many of the enemy as possible along the way Eh what they would discover though was that this was a game with which the Afghan fighters were all too familiar. I don't know what the general idea is for. Are The people in Afghanistan Iraq or anything like that. But they're not stupid they've been fighting. You know wars like that for a long time now and I remember one time we were. We actually on a long range patrol. We were heading back to our base there and We're close we. I think we were like maybe seven hundred meters away or something. We were really close and We we started getting shot at the rouser Hittin- super close like they had some pretty good precision fire going on us and we looked over to our right where it's coming from and the sun was shining in our eyes so we were like crap. We can't see anything so we actually started a banana peeling back towards this vineyard and there was a giant wall and we got in there inside that vineyard they just kept shooting at us and then We just like Oh shit you know that was super close. Made sure everybody was OK. They're like what do you want us to do. Do you want to pursue pursue them and go after or do you want us to come back. And I'd like now go after him. We bounded in this field. It's seemed like forever but I think is because the field was filled with water and mud and it was extremely difficult to get through and here we are taking shots while trying to bounce this field and we had a crossover a couple. Now's well just to get to this building. They made their houses out of mud. I mean it was just a it was just a mud house and when we cleared it and made sure sure there wasn't like booby-trapped or anything like that they It's just a giant. You know you open up and there's giant courtyard and you could tell there had been animals. They're I think they're actually were still some animals in in there and There couple rooms here and there but that was it. I mean nothing else. We cleared it out the way we're supposed to and like I said they had gone. They left so you know we did all this work and got over there. And they're gone. I mean we found. We found a cache in there and I d materials and stuff like that so it was not a total loss. But we'd gotten there and like I said they had just they had gone already. They're out to me. I think there was only one or two people and there was is probably you know twenty or more of us so they had gotten out of there they want really set up to fight us. I think they were just trying to get lucky. Skin hit one of us. There were a lot of attacks of opportunity like that with the Taliban courting dumb luck and choosing to live to fight another day as dunning things said the people on the ground. We're used to this kind of war and used to being outgunned and outnumbered. Of course. It wasn't as if the Marines didn't have their own levels of of expertise and combat experience but they also had a different objective. They were trying to establish some sort of sense of order choosing their targets. Carefully while dodging traps and attack from an enemy committed to the opposite..
Are Less Experienced People More Confident?
"He rain stuff lauren. Vogel Bam here with an episode from the archives for you back when our host one Christian Saker this is one. That's come up and I think all of our conversations and frustrations lately are less informed. Armed people more confident and if so why bring stuff. It's me Christian and Sager. If you're like most people you think you're very good at some things and are able to admit your less good at others. You probably think you're superbly-talented in one honor to areas and hey you may be right you try to be honest with yourself about your strong points and you're weak ones and you likely shake your head in pity at people you see as well. Oh stupid say things like. Why don't they understand that they're bad at doing stuff? Well there is an answer. But you're not gonna like it and this answer it doesn't just apply to people you think of as dumb it applies to everyone on earth including you and me. It's not a matter of intelligence necessarily a difficult fickle thing to measure but it is related to competence the ability to do something well in nineteen ninety nine psychologist named David Dunning and his Grad assistant didn't Justin Kruger tested. A group of students in several categories the ability to think logically to write grammatically and to spot. Funny Jokes folks. They also asked students to rate their skills in these categories. That is when they noticed something. Weird the people scoring below average on these tests were just incompetent in these categories. They also didn't know they were incompetent. And here's the kicker the less competent they were are the more competent. They ranked themselves. This is a phenomenon called illusory superiority this is a cognitive bias. Bias wherein people tend to rate their own abilities as above average multiple. Studies have proven this effect in everything from firearms to college. DEBATES AND MED students opinions of their interviewing skills. It doesn't seem to matter what specific skill were talking about. The less person knows about it the more likely they are to overestimate their knowledge. While dunning and Kruger popularized this effect in modern society. They weren't the first people to notice the relationship between confidence modesty. Honesty and skill philosophers throughout the ages have contemplated this idea like Bertrand Russell. Who famously wrote the trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure talk? Show in the intelligent are full of doubt. And here's another weird thing. People with actual competency are likely to actually underestimate their abilities. Researchers believe this modesty comes because competent people are more aware of how much they don't actually know as well as their field in general they also also consistently overestimate the performance ability of others. It all goes back to
Some ways to keep the power on in Californias fire season
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by aqua the open source digital experience company brands often struggle to find a comprehensive solution to power their DRUBEL websites and applications aqueous Asturian of how does the rest of the system interconnect if everybody has their own rooftop solar array for instance that creates new challenges for out more of these alternatives yet the key word there is more so we can roll out this technology right now but there's sort of Heck demystifying the digital economy I'm Amy Scott in for Molly would the electric grid that we already have the legacy one that we all rely on in addition to that one reason that utilities often look at these kinds of distributed generation as even entire communities or the other thing that we've seen develop is what we typically refer to as rooftop solar which is basically solar arrays and now often with storage part of planned blackouts aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires the state's largest utility Pacific gas and electric has been blamed for sparking previous deadly fire last week more than seven hundred thousand people and businesses in northern California lost power lose power was cut off and even the utility itself marketplace's Ben Bradford has covered California wildfires in their aftermath extensively he said is there are alternatives that could prevent this kind of disruption in the future two options are microbes which are instead of having this kind of vast so the company cut power to areas it's is most vulnerable during a period of dry windy weather the overall effort was chaotic. According to P tax compliance dun-rite better tech change the wildfire scenario in California from American public media this is marketplace to upkeep that transmission system that the rest of us rely on then Bradford is a reporter at marketplace air that could be invested in these kinds of alternatives well you know the rooftop solar industry and some environmental groups they have goals that are anywhere from realistic but we're already seeing companies market off of this opportunity I got a press release from a rooftop solar company almost as soon as the first power shut offs were announced this or their own gas their own storage to be able to power either you know starting off with where we are right now critical functions like fire stations and hospitals and eventually Brett is because the more people that have a rooftop solar array and aren't paying for their electricity from the utility or aren't paying as much the less money there is couldn't be easier and they have experts in fifteen countries around the world to help as you grow learn more at Avi A. L. A. R. A. Dot Com Slash Tech avalon ray of electricity connections and power generation that a from miles away their communities that have their own generation our own solar that can go onto people's homes and provide power to them directly well all this seems like a potentially huge business opportunity I mean how much money are we talking about here. SIMPLIFIES SALES TAX WITH REAL TIME TAX RATE CALCULATIONS AUTOMATIC RETURN Filing Avalanche software seamlessly integrates with your accounting e commerce and point of sales systems so up to I would say about a quarter of the entire generation in California technically there are reports that California could power just every home and business that had the right kind of roof for it and write access to Sun that as much as seventy five percent of the state could be powered by them. I mean that's probably not and now for some related links another reason rooftop solar panels aren't a perfect solution they don't necessarily work during a blackout
Boris Johnson to suspend parliament in Brexit run-up
"In our last episode about Brexit. We spoke for for colleague. Catherine bent hold just after Boris Johnson had suspended parliament and basically cut them out of the decision making process about how brexit would move forward and counter and talked talked about how that had set up this question about what version of democracy would prevail in Britain should be the version that prioritizes the popular will of the British British people who voted for Brexit with or without a deal with the EU which is what Boris Johnson wants or should the version of democracy be allowing parliament element the People's representatives to play a major role in what leaving the e looks like so. How has this all unfolded in the days since Boris Johnson made that move well. I think the answer is that it unfolded resoundingly in favour of parliament as parliament reconvened gene on Tuesday because remember Boris Johnson's suspension of parliament doesn't again for another week or so there was an atmosphere of high-drama NBA's takes the Duchy that when he turns up but our children's school as it was apparent. He's very well behaved fellow. He wouldn't dare behave like that in front with MP's going on TV on the radio the one nation this is not one dogmas complaining about Boris Johnson having committed a constitutional outrage is a constitutional outrage this extraordinarily he needs to be held to account by power but not shutting Dan Parliament and all of this emotion climax of course one of the most remarkable things took place during the statement was to see the member for Bracknell crossed the floor prime minister. You've lost your majority with a member of Boris Johnson's own Conservative Party crossing the aisle in front of the prime administer to sit with members of the Liberal Democratic Party and act which deprive Johnson in one stroke of his majority in parliament. He is it winning friends in Europe. He's losing friends at home his government with no mandate no morals and as of today no majority. Dr Thing so after this very stormy start the next thing that happens is tonight. The United Kingdom has been plunged into even deeper political. Oh chaos the opposition joined by twenty one members of the Conservative Party vote in favor of advancing this legislation that would effectively Saito Boris Johnson. You can't go to Brussels and pull Britain out of the European Union unless you make a deal with the European Union first the majority of British lawmakers including some members of Prime Minister Boris Johnson's own party voted to stop Johnson's plan to leave the European Union without without a withdrawal agreement good stuff the is to the right three hundred twenty eight the nose to the left three hundred one. The is the is heavy. I love so that's the first major defeat. He suffers in his term as prime minister and it's a big one. There is no consensus in this house to leave the European Union without a deal there is no majority see for no deal in the country because it goes straight to the heart of what Boris Johnson said he would do as prime minister <hes> and that is to withdraw withdraw on October thirty first dealer no deal regardless of this situation so when that one conservative lawmaker theatrically flipped on on the floor of parliament it turned out that was a signal of a bigger growing uprising within Boris Johnson's party over this approach he was taking to Brexit. Try to cut Hutt parliament out and just kind of crashed this thing through that's right and it's really very unprecedented. I mean the Conservative Party. British parties in general have iron discipline so to see twenty-one lawmakers peel off and vote against the prime minister and the government is really a wholly unprecedented development in British politics so from the very first session of parliament the British people understood that what they were witnessing with something entirely new in their modern political history and what exactly is underlying these defections affections and rejection of Boris Johnson's plan. I mean why is this so unwanted that even members of his own party are rising up against him. Well the basic fear is that if Britain withdraws from the European Union with no agreement in place overnight overnight it will cause a multitude of major problems you could imagine trucks that transport food and medicine from Europe into Britain being stuck at the border in Calais France. You could imagine chaos at the airports as people who are used to travelling back and forth without passports suddenly suddenly face the prospect of having to show identification you risk in short havoc havoc that could really hurt the economy but could also further polarize the debate over brexit so I think that even within Boris Johnson's party which remember is a party that wholeheartedly supports the goal of pulling out of Europe where e idea of pulling out in this disorderly abrupt way just scared a lot of the members of Johnson's own own party and that fear is what motivated this rebellious so this is not opposition to brexit per se it's opposition to a brexit brexit that creates no predictable trade scenarios ordeals that could suddenly just blow up the function of the British economy. That's that's right many of the rebels if not most of the rebels are on record as saying they think Britain should leave. It's just the way you do it that that is so important and for these twenty one pulling out in a chaotic sudden way is simply too big a risk and that's what they're pushing against or didn't the entire Conservative Party and presumably these rebels who voted against him didn't they know just a couple of weeks back when they elected poorest. Johnson is our prime minister that this is the manner in which he planned to proceed to crash out of the EU without a negotiated deal with the European Union. I mean isn't that understood. Stood that is understood. Yes Boris. Johnson never made any secret of his intentions here but remember. It's not just these twenty-one anyone people who elected Boris Johnson the leader of the Tory party and hence the prime minister he was elected by a slightly broader group of people and so Boris Johnson is tapping into a legitimate view on the part of many members of his party that the time for negotiation the time for for compromise is over and Britain really just needs to pull the Plug uh-huh but to these twenty one rebels he's setting Britain on a horse that they feel ultimately will be economically and politically destructive so they view their role as saying. Hey wait a minute. We want to deliver brexit but we want to do it. In a responsible way in this is not the responsible way to do it. So how did the Prime Minster respond to this rebellion to this smooth in parliament force Johnson does two things. The ruling conservatives are in turmoil. Boys Johnson has kicked hot twenty-one members of his own party after they voted against same disease control of the parliamentary agenda the first thing he does is he carries out what you almost have to call us. Stalinist purge of these rebels rebels. He kicks them out of the Party while I would have to say. Boris Johnson really had the worst week. I mean here he is. He's new. He lost everyone of of his first votes. In parliament which is unprecedented. He purged twenty-one people in his own party because they didn't support him. I mean I think it's kind of dunning and it leads to this extraordinary tableau of these conservative. MP Some of whom have served for decades some of whom are elders of the party giving these emotional farewell speeches in the House of Commons you have the grandson grandson of Winston Churchill Nicholas Soames the speak. I'm not standing of the next section. I'm bus approaching the end a thirty seven years service to this hice of which I've been proud. I'm honored beyond words to be. I'm not I'm showed a very sad that it should end in this way speaking very emotionally nationally about all the years he spent in parliament who have titans of British politics Kenneth Clarke who's known as the father of the house a former Chancellor Chancellor of the exchequer a man who might well have been prime minister himself party tonight. It's been taken over by a Roman knockabout. uh-huh so character
Cognitive Dysfunction, Byan And Australian National University discussed on Phil Valentine
"Yeah. Scientists say that fast food could cause dementia and the damage. They say is irreversible Dun, Dun, Dun, Dun, Dun. This is from the sun in the UK experts say that unhealthy eating habits and lack of exercise, puts people at risk of significant decline in brain function, a team at Australian National University found people are consuming an extra six hundred fifty calories every day, compared with what we were eating fifty years ago, that's equivalent of a burger fries and a soft drink. But they say that they've proven a clear link between eating more and brain deterioration, professor nNcholas cheer Byan, who led the research published in frontiers in neuro into chronology says we found strong evidence that people's unhealthy eating habits and lack of exercise for sustained periods of time puts them at serious risk of developing type two diabetes and significant declines in brain functions such as dementia and brain shrinkage. He also found that brain health can decline much earlier in life than previously thought, however, he says this in large part to a society that promotes unhealthy lifestyle choices he says the damage. John is pretty much irreversible wants a person reaches midlife. So we urge everyone to eat healthy and get in shape as early as possible preferably in childhood, but certainly by early adulthood, says many people who have dementia and other signs of cognitive dysfunction, including shrinking brains have increased their risk throughout life by eating too much bad food and not exercising enough. So they
"duns" Discussed on Digiday Podcast
"And it attracts more people, and I will say that what's great about meter just to get more tactical unless like sticky is that it doesn't like I in no way. Does it stop the people that are coming through search that have never been to the brand before a lot of the one a lot of traffic is driven by one and Duns and a lot of traffic is driven by loyalist? So meters kind of brilliant because it allows you to still like hold onto both. Right. So we want to get people that are obsessed with reading, you know, the Oscars are here, and they like have to read everything that has to say, and they're gonna they're gonna look for that content. They're gonna find that content. And this also definitely super serves the audience that comes back multiple times if they are coming back multiple times within that tells you this is someone that's probably willing to pay for it. Right. So again now listen at the end of the year. Forecasts will not be negatively impact by we shouldn't be. Yeah. I don't think that would be a good idea for us. So I think we're we are. We're bullish about this. And again, this is not, you know, we do have three great examples so far, but we'll see what where we are year from now, you know, these are all coming this year. So the goal is up by the end of this year. We are all of our brands are behind some sort of metered paywall, and then in terms of our ability to really start like focusing on which brands are working, and what the specific bespoke strategies are by brand that will shape out into twenty twenty. So what do you think of of pay wall fatigue? I mean, a lot of this is not like completely unique. There's a lot of pay walls out there. There's a lot of people with subscription programs membership programs. If you total them up, it's quite a lot. I again, like, I don't know if this is just me, but like. No other content in the world was free. I mean, if you wanted to watch cable, you had to have you know, you had to pay for it. If you wanted to go to the movies you had to pay for it. You wanted to read a movie you have to pay for it networks came around you wanted to get movies every month you had to pay for it..
"duns" Discussed on That's What She Said with Sarah Spain
"And I'm gonna be pushing that really hard into the nineteen because I believe that the heavier matters. And if we would have patched eligiblity to the h-have yer the same way that we attach eligibility took grades. We will see a shift in the culture, if we know if a young man in high school knows my behavior matters if I harm someone I'm not going to my dream college. What happens in his mind? How does that change things for him? And not only that. But all the people around this young grooming him to go to college. They are now forced to have conversations with that young, man. Because of the your matters to know, we're going to have conversations about consent drinking healthy relationships and those kinds of things because we wanna keep him eligible. So this will work, I know that it will work. It was already started to work in the Big Sky conference. And yes, like one of my number one initiatives this month. So anyone that wants to sign get involved? Please. Do this is one significant way that we can change things and again petitions that change dot org slash NCWA. So a lot of there's a lot of I think differing opinions on kind of one in Duns, right experts. I've talked to have said at least at the professional level that it will likely discourage people from reporting because they won't wanna feel like their their financial situation might be lost. If they want to continue the relationship or if they if they are getting death threats because it's a famous person. Right. And they say it's better to try to figure out how to punish for the sake of change versus PR. Right. So if you just immediately say, you're never allowed in the NFL again when you do this that person's not likely to change they've lost all of their support system. They lost their job. They've lost their money. What real impetus is there to invest in that person and invest in them not going off and doing this and recidivism occurring. It's a little bit of the collegiate level, obviously. But you know, how do you reconcile that idea of? Maybe they'll cover it up even more if they know they're gonna lose this athlete forever versus this will teach athletes that their actions have consequences. Right. Well, and I think we have to think about the fact that, you know, in the beginning stages of the things things are not going to be perfect. Right. And this is work that has been done our time. But the the thing that we have to do is we have to we have to reach back, right? We this stuff has to start in high school. We have start talking to our young men right athletes, don't become violent when they sign a pro contract. That's not what happened these attitudes. These beliefs these behaviors have been cultivated, and it probably started in high school. And then it just got worse, and we have failed. These these men by not holding them accountable at different stages. We have failed them, but I haven't conversations about consent and healthy relationships. We failed them by just looking at them as commodity rabies of the sun point, we identify the young man has athletic ability. And then we start calling them and place this protective sense around them right because we're trying to get them to the pros or. Kind of get them to that college that college level Ige one program. And so when the girl in high school says he hit me, we say, well, you know, what don't wanna ruin his go to college better himself. So let's not same thing. And then he goes on to college, and then he hits another girlfriend, right? And there was no what he's gonna go to the NFL. And we don't want to ruin chances to go to the NFL. So let's not say anything, right? And then they're in the NFL, and then they hit their wife, and then we're going over. We don't know what to do. Right. Well. What we need to do is we need to we need to respect further. And and I think that when we look at the NFL, I think that for me, this is a college problem. These colleges are sending these men to the NFL the idea that we're just oh, the NFL says that no we even know telling me that respect they need to hold colleges accountable. Hard coaches, hold high schools accountable..
"duns" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"Some laws around here. New Hampshire people moved out of Massachusetts because it was holy oppressive. They moved to New Hampshire live free or die live free or die. And they're like, you know, we should make this more like Massachusetts. How do I know? This is true. Let me take you to the New Hampshire public radio website. Democratic majority in states gun a New Hampshire house chamber. The state of live free or die will no longer allow you to carry a firearm. This was the first thing they did when they got power in New Hampshire. Make sense to anybody. By the way. I wouldn't listen to that law for a damn second auto legislator. I've got a gun on my hip every single time. I go anywhere. Wouldn't listen at all? What kind of madness is this? Now, oddly enough Duns were banned they were banned for for years. The rule change came in two thousand eleven now they flipped it back. Interesting example, whole interesting story that got there in New Hampshire. But there's no doubt that the more oppression from the state the less people want to be there, the less people want to be there. Should be a lesson to the states not to be oppressive some people like being oppressive. They like.
"duns" Discussed on Layovers
"But that means that maybe doing conspiracy theory here maybe doesn't really want to third runway because he'd allows him to them per high as long as. Nothing them vehemently against it. Because they're using the whole we're not paying for it line. But that that's very interesting theory. I think there might be some credibility. There dot route is six percent off be as total revenue to advancing. It's amazing given how many places? Interestingly though, the the the same guys broke that down by revenue ours hours flown, and in that case highest is actually through to Dubai by Merz, which seems to be very very profitable as well. Which explains what we have like twenty five billion flights day from all the airports in the UK to by the old pretty because people they don't even the UK. They might not realize that. But every time I've Flammer is these springs are every single full. It's so it's it's actually very profitable. It's it's all about subsidies guys just people just fly to buy and then maybe elsewhere, it is it's those did really good job. With the study by explain the metrics and the methodology it's it's well worth digging into. So to my trip I'm not going to try not to do two hours of what am I doing only part of my trip in this episode? The second part of the next one so not to bore you to death because that last time when spoke about Duns us but for twenty five minutes in a row now. Getting sleep in the morning after respect is just woke up. So after did that little thing meeting three twenty pilots sell seats in olive oil to be a etc. I went to Paris. I'll talk about Paris at the very end with Alex what we think about shoulder goal and flew account. So ironic in Paris at built myself since we're separate tickets, of course, being the rest of the trip. Lots of time outta switch terminal that was very quickly expanded at the end of the show and a have only fifty minutes in Amsterdam. So I'm doing a Paris Amsterdam than get him to Manila which stops in Taipei. And so fifty minutes is okay. Napster damn because now in thank you pretending that security because I hadn't flown in Amsterdam in since twenty eleven actually and back then security were still Moussia gates. Now, you don't have very security. So at least I knew just that to run be fine. But that was fifty minutes only that looking at the plane coming in on my. Flat trackers in like it's late. It's late and it's late in ended up to make the story short about eighteen minutes off time in. In which to me, it was like my God. I'm gonna miss the plan of it's not service is not like the ones we just mentioned the top ten routes to these not going to be like every two hours. Mike, I'm gonna miss a day, whatever. So I enter they are crafts seven thirty eight which will come also in a minute to and the high. There was the crew. This was one guy arrive doesn't know me. And I tell him vocalized in like guys have another flood in essay it's flight to kill him one. Oh, seven seven nothing. Senate vervet to Taipei. Yeah. So the guy knew by heart which services was any says yet, it's it's it's departs in whichever was maybe at that point on our twenty minutes. Something any looks at me. And I said, you gotta have time say look, you should be having time because we the flight is actually very short. But I'll make sure to let the people know on the ground that was in terms didn't know me I hadn't even seated. Yes, he couldn't even know which passenger was if he had read. Manifest? So that was great service. Appreciate that law. Indeed. I made the flight to grazie are part supposedly there's a fast track lane for people. We have these kind of delays when you got to go through passport control. Because you know, I'm going from interesting in Paris in Amsterdam to external the agency it, but since it was an EBay a skied my passport very fast in arrive. Sweaty as hell, but I made it. So thank him. Again is another good as attics. Don't remember his name assured was very very good in a president. I was very happy for the first flight to actually.