18 Burst results for "Dunning Kruger"
Private Payrolls Increase by Just 374,000 in August
"Our economy is realigning in various ways private poet payroll increased by just three hundred seventy four thousand in august the estimate from adp with six hundred thousand. This is from cnbc us. Companies created far fewer jobs than expected in august as the covert resurgence coincided with cutbacks in hiring according to a report wednesday for payroll services firm. Adp private payroll rose. Just three hundred. Seventy four thousand for the month well. Below the dow jones estimate of six hundred thousand though above july three hundred twenty six thousand which was revised downward slightly from the initial. Three hundred. thirty thousand reading. Most of the new jobs came from leisure hospitality which added two hundred one thousand positions in a somewhat hopeful sign that an industry beset by labor shortages continues to recover education and health services combined. Fifty nine thousand for the month is hospitals in some parts of the country were swamped with virus. Cases and schools began to reopen following a robust recovery from the shortest but steepest recession in. Us history economic data late has been disappointing. Possibly reflecting pullbacks from the summer surge of the delta
"dunning kruger" Discussed on The Erick Erickson Show
"But they're just a couple thousand dollars left of the money they need to raise get people out of afghanistan. They're still working on word. Donate two three three seven seven seven text. Donate two three three seven seven seven if you would like to help them Help get people out of afghanistan. I wanna turn to the economy. There are a number of stories out there about the economy that i think Really shed light on the fact that we really are going through a level of realignment in this country in variety of ways. I have said for a while. We're in a political realignment stake. Jd vance for example in ohio jd. Vance hillbilly. Lg author is running for the us. Senate he's running. He had been a vocal critic of donald. Trump has become a supporter of donald trip over time. Very focused on The white working class. He's pro union pro free speech. He's pro social safety net. He is not by any. Stretch of the vegetation libertarian He is a big government conservative. If ever there was one and in fact a lot of people are saying his got the same views as people on the left did in the forties. And he's a truman republican. If you will earn fdr republican. And he's not alone. I've had a number of people. Tell me that they more and more view themselves as an old school democrat. They are pro unions. Which i actually think it's a terrible idea It just drives up costs among other things. i not as worker for legions funds the left ultimately But they're they're pro union They want good government. Education run systems. They want access to colleges. They want government healthcare. They want a social safety net benefits for people it very much. Sounds like a nine hundred thousand nine hundred sixty democrat with conservative social policy and in fact the data does show that if there's really a constituency for a new party in this country it is socially conservative and fiscally liberal a lot of people in this country of the academic and political elite believe we need to be socially liberal and fiscally conservative. We need to restrain the size and scope of government finances but we need to be all in an abortion gay rights transgender rights In the culture war from the left in fact Hispanic voters black voters and a lot of white working class perfectly. Happy with a government that provides a social safety net at large social dividend but is deeply conservative when it comes to life and transgender politics and the the alphabet gang war that we're all in with culture there's actually a greater constituency for that. Jd vance is one of several candidates. Other some of whom were funded by the billionaire. Peter the'll who are taking this tax. It's very interesting to watch his rise. I'm not sure..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Cautionary Tales
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"dunning kruger" Discussed on Cautionary Tales
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Your health forward visit go forward dot com today to learn more. That's go forward dot com. I love a good story about stupid people doing stupid things. But i worry that. Perhaps we're missing something. Very important about the dunning kruger effect in eighteen. Ninety six an austrian doctor named gabriel. Anton stood up at a medical conference to discuss some curious cases in what we would now call neuroscience antonis remembered partly in the medical. Fm anton bisky syndrome. People who suffer from anton babinski syndrome a blind. But that's not. What strange about this condition. Now what's strange about people with anton. Babinski syndrome is that they don't realize that they can't see dr anton other examples. That was a gentleman who was quite death and also quite unaware that he was death. He knew that he struggled in conversation. But his explanations didn't make much sense for example. He blamed background noise for the fact that he couldn't hear what people were saying to him. He'd asked people questions and didn't seem to worried by the fact that he never perceived their answers. Such cases are typically the result of damage to the brain itself resulting in a lack of self insight that strains imagination. They're very rare and very strange. But i worry that we've come to think of the dunning kruger effect as a bit like the anton bisky syndrome. That it's a special kind of disability that afflicts a distinct class of clueless idiot like the hapless bankrobber. That since you and i dare. Listener are not clueless. We are therefore thankfully immune but dunning kruger isn't like that a tool rather their research paper unskilled and unaware of it describes a common truth about the way we think we all lack self insight some of the time and in particular when we've strayed beyond our sphere of competence. We may lack the competence to know it. The dunning kruger effect isn't just about stupid. People doing stupid things. It's about clever people doing stupid things to and those clever people may include you and me one example that struck me was the sudden popularity of me to media more than a decade after being introduced by the activists. Tirana burke me to is often described as a movement against sexual abuse and sexual harassment. Which of course it is but think about what metoo is really doing it. All went big in late. Twenty seventeen when the actor. Eliza milano encouraged women to post me to if they had suffered sexual harassment or assault she wrote. We might give people a sense of the magnitude of the problem she could have written. It's time that abuses face consequences or it's time to stop blaming women for their own harassment. But she focused like a laser on a dunning kruger issue. Men who thought of themselves as decent considerate. Nice guys who had no idea what many women were having to deal with. I'll put myself squarely in that category. I don't think i'm stupid. I don't think lemon juice makes me invisible to cameras but on this point until me too. I didn't begin to get it. And that i think was milana's point. Men need to understand how often this is happening to the women around them. They don't know what they don't know. David dunning found that hit given birth to an academic idea. The became a cultural touch point but professor dunning has spent the last few years running around telling people they're misunderstanding. The effect the first rule of the dunning kruger club. He told the website vox is. He don't know you remember. And while we all members we drop in and out of the clubhouse without knowing it as a stunning once put it. There's a borderline between what we know what we don't know and so easy to cross over that border line one moment. We know what we're doing. The next moment we've strolled into the dunning kruger clubhouse and we still think we know what we're doing but we don't any of us can step over that threshold at any moment and like wylie coyote walking over a cliff and standing suspended in mid-air and might take a while before we realize that we've wandered away from solid ground. sometimes we know we're unskilled or ignorant. I can't play the flute. And i know i can't but very often. The failure of skill or knowledge goes hand in hand with the failure of self insight. We don't know what we don't know. Dunin kruger isn't about stupidity. It's about blind spots. Everyone has blind spots and the thing about blind spots both literal and metaphorical is that the brain just fills in the gap. We don't perceive them as blind spots. We don't perceive them a told. There is of course a cure for the curse of dunning kruger. And that's to ask for advice is lemon juice an invisibility potion as well as an invisible ink mcarthur wheeler could really have used a second opinion on that point but doing so alas would i have required him to doubt his own reasoning on the matter and the problem with dunning kruger. Remember is that we don't know what we don't know all whether what we don't know is important but the other reason macarthur wheel might have been reluctant to ask for. Advice is that he was planning to commit a crime. He couldn't get a second pair of eyes on his plans because his plans were illegal. I don't think it's a coincidence. That so many dunning kruger stories are about criminals because while we all find it hard to ask for constructive criticism. It's particularly difficult to ask for constructive criticism of your plan to rob a bank.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Serious Inquiries Only
"Like there. There are there are things that you develop expertise and when you when you have to deal with human data and training that you get in terms of like these theoretical conceptual relationships in how they how they relate to operational definitions in your study design that i doubt this person has expertise in and so i feel like he's ignoring and i'm not basing this on just the fact that he's a geologist rate. I'm it on the fact that i read two of his papers very carefully and he. He ignored things that i feel like. You would have to address in order to strongly. Make the claim that the dunning kruger effect is artifact like acknowledging the experimental data for study three about the social comparison and the The lack of symmetry on either side. All right. well you've convinced me. I feel a lot. But i see what you're saying. And that's so. I guess we can continue going along in our lives thinking. The dunning kruger effect is real and it makes sense that that is my position. I will qualify once again though that he probably has expertise and things i don't so maybe i'm missing something here. That's totally possible. But people have been trying to debunk this effect for a long time and it is stood up to a lot of criticism and i think that says something. There's a lot of extra which that is not the case. Well thanks so much for the breakdown lindsay. You're such a good science talking person that i bet you would underestimate your skill at talking science. How good you are. I love hearing these breakdowns from you. That's so quite a lot of people. Were talking about this online. So i maybe they will refer to this and believe in the dunning kruger affect once again. Yeah me too. Well thanks so much for listening. Everybody thanks so much lindsay again for coming on I love these scienc- episodes either just so much fun and you explained so clearly on really enjoy it. i'm sure we will Be talking again in the very near future everybody else. I'll see you whenever you come watch or.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Serious Inquiries Only
"And it has been thoroughly addressed like they've back. Yeah they've done tasks and sort of reanalyze. The data in a way that is consistent with the recommendations of people who have made these kind of statistical artifact claims and they've found that it doesn't make the effect go away. Oh interesting yeah. let's talk about. What the dunning kruger effects is right. I think you summarize or the broad strokes really well. But there's some some sort of wrinkles here that i think important And i do want to say upfront like this was a wilder ride than i expected it to be going through all of this literature and the critiques and the response is all this stuff and i i think i read enough to do like a competent job here but especially given the content. I'm very aware of the fact that may be missing. Something so meadow. Yeah yeah yes. I want to state that upfront. You know and also if. I'm right about that. If i am missing something then that's just further supported. The grondona kruger effects. So there's there's that there's a couple of misconceptions here that i think are important to address. Let me let me lay out. What the effect is and then. We'll we'll talk about some of those misconceptions. Because i think this story and how people talk about this. So so what is the done in kruger effects as current dunning describing by the way authors on this article krueger and dunning nine hundred ninety nine. I don't know why everybody calls us. Dunning kruger yeah. I was. I was going to make a joke like that would be the perfect done in kruger thing is if it actually was supposed to be krueger dunning the whole time and we all thought like thought we knew what we were talking about and that the wrong way. Yeah i'm guessing it's because So david dunning is. I'm guessing. was the faculty mentor. Maybe justin career was student at the time that they publish this. I didn't have time to your. Is it like a an english like a sound. E what are the rules on this when you name an effect when you name thing he. is that dunning kruger. It has a nice ring to it. Do they just back and forth or is it alphabetical de que Yeah could be. yeah anyway. I don't know we should find out. Okay okay so here's here's the basic claim underlying the dunkirk. Perfect basic claim is the lack of expertise in many domains. Imposes a double burden on people. So if you if you don't have expertise you're likely to be less competent in that domain because of your lack of expertise and because of the lack of expertise it renders. You incapable of recognizing the fact that you are incompetent because you don't have sort of the meta cognitive awareness that you would need to recognize when you make errors in meta cognitive means like thinking right so ability to sort of reflect on your performance and recognize airs essentially so in domains where expertise confers skills and that includes things like grammar and mathematics It doesn't include things like physical skills. Perhaps like i could. I could maybe learn a lot about golf swings and still not be able to perform a good gulf swing right but in a lot of domains learning more about it per se confers skill. Right learn about the the rules of grammar. I'm going to be better at grammar as someone who plays golf absolutely. Yes that has the. There's almost no correlation between knowing how how well you hit the ball. Yeah right and so. That's kind of an interesting thing. And they they talk about that in the discussion that there are these domains in which you're not going to find the dunning and kruger effects. You're gonna find it in areas where expertise actually for skill so so in those domains rate. It's the again it's the very knowledge that makes you competent. That also renders you able to accurately recognize dominance so the prediction krueger effect is that people are going to make biased judgments of their own performance that are related to their expertise so those without expertise to consistently overestimate how well. They're performing on a task essentially because they're unable to notice errors right. Yeah and kids provide cute examples of this all the time. Don't think you're basically not experts in anything back when i could still listen to louis c. k. The pig newton gets me. It's one of my favorite things. Yeah i i. I have that pig newton moment a lot with phoebe. Phoebe tells me thing. Actually no arlo starting to do it. While this is all sides story won't get into. But arlo has a fifty fifty chance of being color blind and we still don't know i'll he's shown signs either way that i thought oh he he can see colors. You can't stop it for another time. But anyway i'll be. I've been trying to go through colors with them here and there just to see or maybe you know maybe just to teach him and he'll just sometimes i'll be like and this is green is like now yellow. It's like no this is green now. yeah like you. So sure of himself now. Yellow like zero hesitation salaries. He's a done in kruger. Yeah that's awesome. That's awesome and we all are right. That's that's where we're going to ask but but yeah so first. Prediction has about how that lewer core tile performs. They're going to overestimate the second. Prediction is about What people with greater expertise are going to do so. Those with expertise are going to be actually relatively accurate according to these predictions and judging the performance because they have greater meta cognitive skills convert by that expertise. We're gonna come back the the underestimation piece in a little bit sexually a little bit separate. So that's the dunning kruger effect and Before we get to the studies. I want to talk about some of these common misconceptions. So you don't want conflate Incompetence with stupidity right. And i think that's important to say because you know people who have sort of a passing familiarity with dunning kruger and also like to make shitty comments on the internet's have developed a real fondness for using the dunkirk perfect. A shorthand for a year in idiot smarter than you and david dunning is an incredibly kind and humble man and his research is could not be further from lake. Gotcha researched demonstrate. How stupid everybody'll yes right. The warning that he is clearly issuing is to have humility and caution when you are examining yourself and limits of your own expertise and all of us are not experts in way more things than we are experts in. So i think that's a really important caution. I think at the end of this episode though we need to know whether it's appropriate to call trump the done in kruger president or not. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't on. I'll remain open yet. So we were talking on the stream about the interview with fao body and there were a couple of moments where foul she is describing conversations that he's had with trump that sound like very clearly like in the realm of under everything research but in the realm of everything. Can you be done in kruger there. Can you think that you're just a genius. And so everything you say is gonna be right. yeah but would that still fall under technically done in kruger. not too broad. well no it. Interacts with dunning kruger. Okay so they. They've done several studies where they look at like personality differences and how much people underestimate when they're low performers and people who are high on narcissism or narcissistic traits overinflate performance estimates more than people who are low on narcissism. Interact with it so yes. Trump is probably the dunning kruger president as well as the narcissistic president. But anyway so yeah so the denker effect definitely not point out how stupid people are even more stupid than we suppose they were..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Serious Inquiries Only
"Something. The wind blew it all the way to california. It was unbelievable gale-force hurricane winds are fence got knocked over trees power of quarter million people out power and. i'm hoping i get. I hope i hope this This recording goes okay. It's it's it's not a sure thing power has been in and out but so that's me and then we think we're all it's all resolved. We're good we recovered this morning. You know and when you know at phoebe as a fever which means should we can't both kids can't go to daycare for a calendar year or something until they. Yeah yeah so that's my day anyway. I'm really excited to have you on though because you're this cheer me up. This is going to be really cool episode because there was an article by jonathan jerry and he wrote about the fact that the dunning kruger effect might not be real and made made some waves on the twitter on the interwebs super curious about this so lindsay was kind enough to check this out. Apply her spider technology. Sorry technology really did play a large role my ability to register quick plug to the twitch stream where we have been streaming here and there and talking about all kinds of cool reproductive facts about other species. It's been a lot of fun Be thankful that you're not a spider. Everybody be thankful that you're not a spider. Well specifically a male spider. I guess the women have it. Yeah they seem. They seem to be doing okay. We get a lot of snacks. Yes feel a little bit peckish. they remedy that. Probably the plugging doesn't sound like that much fun. Though so i. I wouldn't want to be a spider of of either sex personally. Yeah more details on the twitch dot tv slash series bud stream of your check out those videos. It's been a lot of fun. Maybe don't bring your kids. I don't know unless spider kids. Actually especially if they're spider says better that they don't know all right now that we've covered that. Let's talk about dunning kruger. Since you are so good at science blaming everything. I thought maybe since i read this article maybe i can try to explain what i think this is saying. You can tell me if i got it right and then critiquing or confirm it. What do you think yeah now. That sounds fun okay. So this article. It seems pretty plausible to me as not a scientist. And i can't wait for you to tell me why i'm wrong. But it shows the classic chart the dunning kruger effect. You know in the common understanding is that the the less you know. Roughly speaking the less you know about a topic the more. You're going to overestimate your knowledge of a topic or a thing task or whatever and so the classic experiment involved a self assessment and like comparing a score on a test on something no. It was grammar. No that was just one of the examples. Gra- grammar was one of them. Yeah so taking some sort of like Asking people you know. How do you think you'll score on a grammar test for example and they estimate what they think they'll score and then they take the test and the classic chart that i'm sure a lot of us are familiar with the core tile or you know the lower people in terms of actual score have all asked overestimated their abilities and actually the top. The people who score highest have slightly underestimated their abilities. And so i think the common conception has been that like the less you know the more you overestimate your abilities and then as you become an expert then you're maybe humbled a little bit. And so you underestimate your abilities and So this article though suggests that perhaps this is just like an. I don't know what you want to call it a data artifact or problem with 'cause like apparently if you just replace the data with like randomness random samples you reproduced the effect and so the thing. And when i looked at that it kind of made sense in a way like oh. It's it's almost as though everybody basically estimates that they are average because like the the the the perceived ability is pretty close to average. You know like within a little bit and again you're gonna science buying this to us in just a minute but it made a bit of intuitive sense to me like oh yeah. It does kind of seem like i. I could see where that might come about from just random data like if everybody imagine you know you're going to assess a score on a random thing you know some test. On average people will estimate that they are somewhere around average you know and then the people who are at the bottom of the test by definition there will will have overestimated themselves. Because they you know. It's it averages out so to me that seem kind of compelling and the the the end at the end of the day on this article it's like well this might not be a real effect. So how did i do and then what do you think about this article. You did a wonderful job. So yeah so. I think that. That's a good summary of jump and jerry was was was summarizing here so i have to bottom lines that we can circle back to after i. I think it's very important to actually go through the original demonstration of the dunning kruger to talk about some of the more nuance results. Because this critique is sort of aimed at lake the basic demonstration that they did of the effect but it actually doesn't address The more nuanced evidence that provides more conclusive support for the mechanisms. That are proposing so. That's where i want to get to eventually. There's a lot more to this paper than just that graph Short they're sort of you know critiquing there and also i saw new for is is the lead researcher that authored the paper that job and jerry's talking about here and the critique that he's leveling here is not a new one so this this critique was presented pretty soon after the publication of the of the original dunning nineteen ninety nine article and it has been thoroughly addressed like they've back. Yeah they've done tasks and sort of reanalyze. The data in a way that is consistent with the recommendations of people who have made these kind of statistical artifact claims and they've found that it doesn't make the effect go away. Oh interesting.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"People sometimes asks me okay. How do you figure out if you were gaining and knowing yourself? And one of the hints I give I don't know if it's true or not but it sounds ride is to ask people are you vaguely embarrassed by things? You did five or ten years ago. And if you are that means good your evolving, you're improving I mean if you think about the self, you were ten years ago you're not embarrassed by by something that you did you might be off the task of really figuring out the type of person you are the type of person you might be. So I'm always happy it in a second order way when I read one of my old papers Kinda, go well boy did I do that? Wrong? Right. Great advice like you should. See if you're a creative person or you you you output work like you do. I would hope that you can always look back on the stuff that you've made in be like, yeah. Because like especially, if you're a writer, if you don't look back at your old stuff, if you look back at your old stuff and say, wow, I used to be really great and then there's a you're definitely moving in the wrong direction now and I think that's absolutely right. So but but by the way, sometimes it happens perverse which you look at an old piece and kind of your own now I get it. Now I, what why people are paying attention to that I didn't get it then, but now I get it. Now I see you know to the extent that you can sort of look at your past self and see a different person it's adjusted you yourself now are a different person and hopefully of the border in cycle and I think here's something that I think people would like to know this. This will be my last question I'll say my best for and that is How does David Dunning live his life differently knowing what he knows about the dunning Kruger Afaq. I'm much more likely just to accept what I'm wrong That is if I think a is going to happen, and then the opposite happens I sort of look at that say okay I'm shifting course was wrong. I. Don't rebel against experience and I rebelled against data The way I might when I was younger a little bit more laid back about making mistakes. Now Mind you beforehand I don't WanNa make mistakes. It's terrible to make mistakes sometimes, and then some doozy's have been made but afterward, I be myself up as much I just accept a mistake has been made and try to learn and try to figure out what I should learn from it. Okay so look. People are going to find you there. They won't. They will want to keep up with you and see what you're doing the future. How.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"Is that you can have this split preconceived notion about yourself that begins to play out in terms of the impressions people are Are Creating about whether they're they're good at scientific tasks bad scientific tasks we end IN A. basically modern times we know that men are overrepresented engineering and science. So this could be one of the mechanisms that's producing it not differences an actual talent but differences in perceived talent. which caused people to. Evaluate themselves differently on a day-to-day? Basis. And I would last for a little because this is also a this. This is where the work. begins to impress me not that I've done it but the results coming in begin to be give pause. which is that you can ask the question a, why are these preconceived notions of selves? Having an impact on how people think they're doing. wouldn't be swamped by the just the actual experience of the tests that is, are you having a conflict between jams or you should choose? Is it taking you a long time to come to an answer to the terms of familiar? Do they look alien? You'd think this bottom up experience. Look feel the tests are just swamped individual difference. with Clayton creature, we did a follow up to the original work and we discovered that a lot of people's attention will bottom-up experience is formed by their top down preconceptions so that if you're skilled, you think you're answering the questions or quickly, you think the terms for more familiar your experience less conflict. Between the various answers that you can give even though we can find no evidence of this in reality but the the look and feel of the test literally changes based on based on what you think about your ability walking into the room. Wow, see that that's so the inference on the back end is changing the way you perceive the reality of what you just experienced and also and correct me. If I'm wrong, you can prime people going into the test by saying. Women typically, this is a test of scientific knowledge. Women typically don't do very well on those tests and then that can actually affect the process of taking the test going in or you can change it to whatever Cultural or ethnicity variables you can mess with by priming people go going in can also affect how they perform the test as well as at troop. That's right and so when we were. In our what we find is me find. What we're doing doesn't affect actual performance, but it does affect what people perceive of their performance but there is a a a lot of work. On the topic of stereotype vulnerability or stereotype threat in in social psychology showing that ultimately get differences in actual performance. Yeah. Go ahead. Sorry. So okay with Dunning Kruger and with this this inference thing that comes from the I think as you call it the chronic. Self view of yourself. So So this inference thing, you actually experienced less conflict and you feel like you're doing a great job when you're taking the test or not depending on what your viewing yourself, how you view the material. How does it If you if you as as an expert, a scientist could choose between like a head of state like a president or or maybe like a military commander or something or someone who's in a position of great power and authority. which which would you prefer to have someone who is who is confident and away that maybe they don't deserve or someone who is very, very accurate at assessing how well they're doing a certain task and how good their decisions were on the back end of the only answer I. Can give I want them both but at different times. that is There are. There are some times when confidence is very, very important. That is, for example, pure general. You're about to lead your troops into battle You definitely want to be confident because you want your troops to execute their tasks and not have any doubts and not to delay because that's been a save lives. But you don't. So you wanted you WANNA confident generally at that moment. But before that moment you a general who's a WHO's incredibly cautious who will as many troops as possible as much ordinance as possible who has a plan B. Plan C. Plan doesn't work out that is he wants someone who's who's filled with doubts and using those doubts to try. figure out all the contingencies that are out there that can happen on the day that the battle begins. So you you want that overly cautious general in preparation for the day of battle when it's time to execute you WANNA confident general. So So one way to think about confidences at it has its bad sides has its good sides. So it really turns out to be something that you need to manage. You need to know when you should have it in when you should not have it and There is no blanket answer that and how you manage confidence is not about should I always be confident or should I always be cautious? You really have to turn on the caution and turn it off and turn on the confidence. In those moments when it's going to be the most helpful for you or whoever you're leading or whoever you're responsible for. Wow and so that that's another Meta skill that you have to to practice and hone. That's yes unfortunately, in life, there are a lot of Meta skills. There are many many of them. So it's not a surprise that some of them when we're not very good at. So, if you in an institution that wants to be better at making decisions and wants to be better having people who are actually good at what they do and don't you think they're good at what they do other some suggestions from psychology about how to build better institutions. there. There are some helpful points like algae suggests in order to avoid overconfidence leads over over the cliff if you will. The first is that although it's unpleasant. you do want to have a naysayer voices involved at any sort decision that you make that is you want someone to play devil's advocate. to basically to poke holes in what the the group or the institution might be thinking about what wants to do the reason for that is having devil's advocate conspire what? It help the organization spot when it's being overconfident. Or sometimes just improve the decision that Deli. Institutions GonNa do see one that the second thing you want to do is you want to build in Buffers affor- wrong decisions and more importantly wrong decisions that you can't anticipate. You know some of your decisions are going to be wrong. You know they're going to be complications. You just don't know when they're going to happen. So in the software world.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"Habits of science. If you will that is e you mentioned that This problem of incompetence or ignorance has been mentioned for a long long time and it has a All the way back to socrates, Plato but where you see an outburst of talking about limits of knowledge in discovering knowledge is in the enlightenment and out of the habits of people out of the Enlightenment and one of the habits of science. doing scientific reasoning And so we if we're in a better position to know when we're wrong and in a in a better position to discard, it turns out to be childish theories as opposed to more mature and more valid theories I think it's because of the ways of science in particular one habit that is inbred a or baked into the enterprise and and that's the habit of skepticism more the habit of this confirmation of that is. What I tell students is scientists don't go out and try to create evidence for their favorite theories. Some will think that that's what they're doing. Not really what the enterprise is all about. The Enterprise is really at enterprise about this confirmation where you might have a pet theory like the Donnie gruber fact or whatever I thought last week, which to be wrong and you tested in the laboratory or you tested via data. And I can't tell you how many dozens or hundreds of my pet ideas have gone to the laboratory and died. And That's valuable knowledge you know to to realize which of your ideas are wrong. Ideas are childish. Your ideas are naive and if an idea could survive of an experiment. It probably is a correct vibrant theory to behold or to have, and so I think if we are in an advantage to the situation now it's because of. We've learned as especially in the scientific where we've learned that the name of the game is just confirmation confirmation. Yeah it feels like that was the. Devil is we're GonNa Israel big turning points in all of. You know the pursuit of knowledge is that seeking confirmation I at that's what gets results. That's what gets you to the moon and And it's so bizarre that the dunning Kruger. Effect is kind of our default setting we have to unlearn to do that. right that's right. I. I'm looking at your one of your papers here. I'd read this earlier and I loved it because it it this is sort of illustrates dad There's a lot of nuance here. There's a lot more meat on the bone and that is one of your. Studies that you did. It was with. Probably Joyce. Oh. Yes. You had told he told a two groups of people to different things, but you gave the same test one test. He told them that one group that the test was going to be of computer literacy skills and he told the other group it was going to be just logic and reasoning, and then but both these two groups took the same test but they had different estimates of how well they had performed on it. Could you sort of elaborate on that? Oh. Yeah. that that was just a key idea that that. Joyce had, which is that a lot of what we think about our performances like You have I said anything particular today in in your podcasts or you know how will I do it, and of course, Lecture Tomorrow is it actually based on the experience of the of the podcast of the course lecture? It's it's actually inferred. It's something that I reason out from abstract ideas already have about myself. So So performance estimates like how well did I do today are actually In psychological jargon top down that is we take preconceived notions. We have about ourselves like am I good lecturer. And then infer whether or not our lecture was good or not based on this preconceived notion of whether we think we're a good lecturer or a bad lecture, good public speaker or bad public speaker. and. So we tested this idea out by giving students a pop quiz on verbal reasoning. About, we gave the test to different labels that we knew students would have a different a different reaction to one label was this is that this was a test of abstract reasoning. And when they we knew. But our students is they say, they have abstract reasoning that that's a that's a skill they have up the Wazoo In fact I would I would agree with that. In fact, sometimes they're thinking is a little bit too abstract but that's another story and the other group was told that this was a test of the Tiber reason used in computer programming. and we knew from the students wandering to our experiments that they would deny until the day of their death that they have that skill. So they go they take the test it's the same test same question same answers same fond same operated on the Xerox machine. So franzen purposes, it's the same experience that's being presented but the students who thought it was damn strike reasoning test. thought they did much.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"This is the you're not so smart podcast and we are interviewing David dunning one of the scientists to coined the term, the dunning Kruger effect now back into the interview. Tell us a little bit about this. The McArthur Wheeler Incident I. think that's one of the coolest stories about how a psychological phenomenon finally got quantified. Tell us how little bit about the incident and lead your research young early days I. I was thinking a lot about The question of do incompetent people know they're incompetent because if you're in. A college professors office you often have people that are not necessarily students come into your office with wild ideas and you just look at them and you you think in the back of your head, they must know what they're saying is doesn't make sense or if it's not in your office, you go to faculty meeting and you you hear it there And but in the early, but one of the stories that I encountered early on was the story of this would be bank robbery. Pittsburgh Pennsylvania. WHO Rob a couple banks broad daylight with able disguise and the police caught up within hours i. mean it was just a question of. Showing, his face from surveillance tapes in the Evening News, and before midnight he was caught and he was incredulous because as to please showed him the surveillance tapes He's started a mutter a but I wore the juice I wore the juice. That is he thought that. Put spearing your face with lemon juice would render it invisible or fuzzy to video cameras You know wild theory to begin with. But. He really really believed but he really believed to the tune of actually Robbing, a couple of banks without any sort of precaution against being caught based on this theory. Now to his credit, he actually tested the theory He actually did spirit his face with lemon juice a few days before and then took a polaroid Selfie of himself and all he saw was wall but he didn't realize it is that he is saying the camera So there is a nuance to what he did wrong. But I remember reading this kind of going in I can't believe this and it basically decide a high phoned the magic key to life of crime that will succeed imagine. How many more time? Everybody's Day some less flamboyant version of this is happening right. So that's what we decided to test out had had. He had some sort of incident or experience beforehand that made him i? Mean, why was it lemon juice and not tomato juice or a aback where did he come up with this idea on his on his on how did? Know. That even in his mind it, it's an interesting question. I have no idea and I down the to ask the question I'd love to find out you don't have all things lemon juice it's so I was looking for. He was looking for he was looking for. As the all our and he discovered the I assume he does he he thought this was his at and So where it came from I, don't know that he was looking for something that would suggest he could succeed a bank robbery. There's no doubt but I don't know where the story came from because Doing this work, you get exposed to a lot of weird stories. And in for some of them you you have no idea where they could come from you know they they just sound weird by people act on them. So, a lot I love it. I think as the one of the weirdest things I've ever heard and it led to this great insight into the human condition and It's also what's great about the. Fact. Is that a lot of intellectuals and writers throughout history of sort of they've they've noticed it out in the world to some degree, but then science finally came along and quantified it. I. Love when that happens it's one of my favorite things in the world and a lot has been written about the done in cougar effect here in the last especially ten years. What what. So we can get says this we can have it exactly right. What is the true definition of the term? Okay. Well, I'll give you the short version and then I'll expand upon it a little bit short version is that incompetent people are not in a position to know they're incompetent in many areas of life. now they're actually once you have that in place or a lot of other things that fall from that or follow from that. So incompetent people are less of a less good judges about other people in their skill incompetent people can recognize they're incompetent once you've them into being competent. and it's incumbent going to is going to be more difficult for them to learn just how. Low. The skill level is, and this is about denial. This isn't about self-deception they're just not in a position to know. And the reason they're not in a position to know is from something that we referred to as the double curse or the double burden, which is that if you have gaps in your expertise or of corruptions in your expertise or getting some facts and figures and how they conduct. Wrong. that's GONNA lead to different problems for you. The first one is at you're GonNa make mistakes obviously I mean if if you lack expertise, you bake steaks. But in a lot of areas didn't live the you rely on those that you rely on that exact same expertise to judge whether or not. You've made a mistake. Have you come to right answer or have you come to a wrong answer and so to the extent that you have gaps in your expertise or corruptions in your knowledge or you're getting things wrong you're gonNA make wrong judgements about how good or how bad your decision decisions are. And becomes everybody basically does what they think is the most reasonable thing to do. Pretty much. Everybody's going to be left in a position where they think they're doing. Okay. They've chosen the best out of all the possible options that are out there. Their strategy is the one that makes most sense. The problem for some of those people they're incompetent and they don't have the expertise to realize that the they've chosen has a lot of problems with it because they've literally lacked the expertise to recognize those problems if they have that expertise At the very least be asking for advice from other people. So so incompetent people are in a a special situation where it's not that they don't recognize their lack of skill and it's did nine. Their lack of skill is they're not in a position T to make the call correctly around opposition to realize just how badly they're doing. It. Is I don't know the things you don't know. Exactly it's like. I think about how? Really, really really smart people from our. From the history of science will oftentimes come to conclusions simply because there's a giant amount of stuff that they don't know about what they're studying you whether it's like a like canals on Mars and Water Mars and stuff like that like they they're doing a they're doing their best. They're doing hard science and they're checking everything not lie unlike. The guy with the lemon juice they're they're they're properly going about trying to study the the world but there, there's so much that they're unaware of. To the degree that they're not aware of the even lack of knowing it and it can just lead to really strange hypotheses about what how the world works. No I think that's right. but you know absent knowing the true knowledge. Often what you're left with can at least leave you with enough that you come up with something that seems reasonable for example. So remember the medicine used be based on applying leeches to people to drain them of blood. There was probably a some sort of phenomenon some sort of folklore out there that made that a plausible. even though today, we would find that to be incredibly implausible and So One Way to think about the problem of the incompetent or people who are choosing incorrectly is we all have a lot of knowledge our we have a lot of facts. A lot of figures a lot of metaphors in her head a lot of heuristic. We can use in thinking rules before, and from that, we can come together what seems to be reasonable. Answer to whatever problem we have in front of us and the issue with is that may be the most reasonable answer we can come up with but that doesn't prevent that reasonable answer for being wrong and the and the reason we don't see it as wrong is because there's all this. Other knowledge if you will always all this other information that simply are not aware of. So, one of the ways.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"But the relationship between what people think about themselves in the reality of themselves is relatively meagre too often nonexistent. This is like one of the most difficult things to to fully accept and and realize when it comes to when you start to really explorer psychology because not only is it that it seems that we're bad at assessing ourselves. We don't feel that we feel the opposite of that is something that you see as well in your research. That's right the we often do have a feeling that we really do know ourselves. We know we're capable of and The mistake that we make is that we often think we're capable of lots of things. That, we actually aren't capable of that is overconfident. were choose certain about our abilities. To confident in our expertise a little to having a little bit too much hubris in our moral character. But the key here is that people really believe it They really believe rather positive images of themselves though when you actually test what people can actually do or what they really do the pictures in that positive. I I remember the first time in my life that I really recognize that this. This was true was. In College I staged a a fighting game tournament where I I had I set up all these these video game systems I invited people from around the country to the university to play a particular fighting game, and we had sort of a group of friends like is like eight to ten people in our hometown who played this game and we thought we were amazing. We thought that we were the best. In the world and I didn't had no problem inviting the champions from the country to come play against us and every single one of us lost. Both of our matches immediately like we didn't even we didn't even place. We need close. We were absolutely destroyed and I remember all of us shaking our heads and rubbing our temples and thinking like how could we not just be? Not. Okay. But actually suck. Like ed how's that possible? And I bet that sort of happens alive amongst People who feel sort of at the amateur level feel that they have. Achieved something that there's not much distance between that amateur level and master levels is this something that you've seen in your research as well. not only have we seen it but a lot of people have seen it. That is they don't People are the amateur level They really haven't seen the master level. So they've seen maybe hints of it, and maybe they've seen a caged on things. Another person's a little bit better than they are but that's all they've ever seen. and so when they in this often explains the trauma of going to college they go from high school and being the best of their swimming team to college, and suddenly being in the you know down in the bottom twenty percent of the people who are trying out. they begin to realize it's just what a small pond they were efficient. That is that a lot of the problem we have in assessing ourselves is we don't get to see the entire range of competence out there all the way from the worst of all the way to the best and not knowing what the best looks like. We can presume that were very close to that top In the reason, we think we're close. To the top is we really haven't seen that top and It is the Kate I I've been called fresher for a few decades down. There is a time in about the first half semester when students begin to realize all these other students are are good and there are some students here that who seemed to be super naturally good man they just never seen that and that's part of the reason why they thought they were. they thought they were so skilled beforehand they're being exposed to entirely different world. I think of it like you know. That I have that think they could win jeopardy. But if you if you if you actually put them in front of Alex Trebek's they, they would go negative immediately. I. Think that's right I mean One of the things we get to do when we're watching jeopardy's get to choose which questions we answer. We're not watching how many questions we just SORTA skip. And the probably is all those questions we skip. Are GonNa make us losers when we actually go on. The program and put on top of that. The fact that you're nervous the cameras are on you Alex. trebek's probably as much more imposing in person than a Then through the TV set E- people just haven't had the experience that's going to. Give them a more accurate clue as to where their skill actually lies. When I I was reading your your research and your work I the the very first example that came to my mind was Reality Television shows that are about people who are. trying to win some sort of talent competition or trying to win singing and I. Know that those shows purposely grab a couple of people who aren't very good and put them out there for ridicule but you'd think at this point that those people people would know that's happening and they wouldn't go along with it is is is that the dunning Kruger effect whenever? You have people who are not very good at singing who actually go all the way to the end and they think that they're going to win that competition. What's a good example the dunning Kruger effect that is in in fact, in the early days the name Dunning Kruger factor was the competing with the American idol of effect as American. IDOL. Duke had all these examples of course, their chosen for television but we had always examples of people who truthfully thought they were good when in fact, they were nowhere near any sense of the term good in terms of their their singing and in. In looking at what's going on for those individuals, it looks like they are unfortunately in the dunning trigger world or anything there can idol version of of dunning trigger world because One of the issues that makes a self evaluation very hard not if you're bad. Is that Often, the information you're using to produce your answer to produce your performance. Let's say if you're an American idol, is exactly the same information reverence for us to judge yourself. And of course, everybody is trying to do the best they can so So people are singing there singing their best They're probably hearing something that's pretty good That is what we hear internally is different from what other people are hearing. And because of that, they think they're doing at least. Okay. When I in the old days I'm colored by being you know Winston in the corner dive under the desk or or or the judges are patiently waiting because they know that the the camera is going to take their reaction shot at the end and it's an extra shot is not going to be the one that contested wanted to see but it's basically that people who are singing..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on You Are Not So Smart
"Problem for some people they're incompetent and they don't have the expertise to realize that the strategy they've chosen has a lot of problems with it because they literally lacked the expertise able to recognize those problems if they have that expertise At the very least they be asking for advice from other people. So so incompetent people are in a a special situation where it's not that they don't recognize their lack of skill and denying their lack of skill is they're not in a position to to make the call correctly around opposition to realize just how badly they're doing. That is Dr David Dunning, explaining the Dunning, Kruger effect from an episode going all the way back to six years ago. That's right. Six years ago. So I'm working on a very big episode right now about persuasion. and. As you know, this is a one person operation and I needed some time to finish that episode. So in this episode, we return to a show from six years ago that really established the sort of guests I wanted to feature because not only is this an episode about the Dunning Kruger Affect the guest is Dr. David. Dunning himself who along with Justin Kruger conducted the study. coined the term way back in nineteen ninety. Nine. What is the done in cougar affect will in a nutshell it's the fact that all human beings are unaware that we lack the skill to tell how unskilled and unaware we are. The evidence suggests that we all have this complicated relationship with our own ignorance. and. It's dishonest. It's complicated but it keeps US sane happy and willing to get out of bed in the morning and part of that relationship is this blind spot we'd possess that obscures both our competence and incompetence. And we call it the done in cougar effect, and as you'll hear from Dr Dunning, we are generally very bad itself assessment that's what it comes down to. So if you've ever been confronted with the fact that you you're in over your head, he had no idea what you doing or you thought you were more skilled at something than you actually were. You may have experienced effect. It is very easy to be both unskilled and unaware of how unskilled you are, and in this episode, we're going to explore why that is. So here it is a classic from the archives and Interview Dr David Dunning about both the history of the dunning. Kruger. Effect and his. Research into the phenomenon. Here we go. Okay David. Feels.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Does This Happen to You
"Hi, I'm Chris Kepler and welcome to disease happened to you I'm an actor voice actor audiobook narrator and writer I love telling and sharing stories about the strange experiences, my friends, and I have while doing mundane things like grocery shopping. That's why this podcast features funny stories from fantastic writers about our daily anomalies, a micro audio book about life and befuddle men just for you. Our story. This Week is from Jessica Wildfire who you'll find on medium dot com, and here is how did date someone with recurring dunning Kruger there everywhere. There's nothing more irritating than someone who thinks they're smarter than everyone else I would no I spent my twenties dating them. They still bragged about things like their sat scores being Valedictorian or spending a year as the editor of their highschool newspaper. You know if these remain your biggest accomplishments as a twenty, six year old, you're not exactly crushing it. We normally talk about dunning Kruger like it's a temporary phenomenon that can afflict anyone but we all know a few people who take up permanent residence on Mount Stupid. The word effect doesn't quite do the job here for them. It's more of a perennial state, a recurring condition. Sometimes, you just have to manage someone with perpetual dunning Kruger and minimize the damage they do. It's not a great blueprint for dating but if you'd like to give it a shot, here's a set of helpful tips they also work well, if you're friends with someone who's been kissed by Dunning Kruger. Don't forget to help them. They'll stop using their brain altogether they'll double down on doing something in the wrong way when someone has done in Kruger, you have to wait for them to come to you for help. Let them make a huge mess someone with dunning Kruger doesn't like to be warned about things. They think instructions are for idiots. They think cautions are for everyone but them they know what they're doing until they don't you can't stop someone like this from making a huge mess. Even if it spills over into your life, you have to let them screw up trying to stop them only makes the situation worse though get angry they'll get defensive they'll quit listening to you. Never. Say I told you so. Some people don't have the capacity to accept responsibility for their mistakes. Even if they do, you can't prompt them to take ownership and apologize either they will or they won't reminding them of the advice they ignored triggers their alternative reality machine. They'll make up a story where somehow you were the one who caused all the problems. This is counterproductive. Clean up their mess for them. Honestly it's the only way to deal with it, making them clean it up. We'll use the result in an even bigger mess. Don't stress yourself out more by trying to hold someone accountable if they can't act like a mature adult if someone made a mess in your life, you have to be the one to clean up..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Masters in Business
"I know that I have no idea if I pronounced that right. Barely spit it out That's true but But I have enough to think I know and I really haven't checked him while to figure out if I really know how to pronounce that well Amazon is actually a term that comes from Medicine and has to do with issues where because of a brain injury People are paralyzed. But don't know that they're paralyzed so really. Oh yes so for example if you If a person is paralyzed I believe it's the left arm and put a cup of water in front of them and say okay. Pick up the cup while the person can't move their arm other paralyzed. They can't move their arm. But if you ask the person they up against the cup they may some say something like I'm not thirsty. I want to pick up the cup that is. They have no awareness. Yeah sort of like the split brain experiments flip rate experts. They're exactly that where The The one side of the brain can point to the right object of but that's not the side of the brain that controls talking The controls verbal skills. But if you ask the person why did you point to that? They can come up with something. That is that's part of our brain is very good at at Interpreting How to understand novel situations so we can come up with justifications we camp with rationale for why we do what we do quite easily. Our brain is an incredible storyteller but You know incredible storyteller sometimes tell fiction and our brain is quite good at coming up with fiction at times That that's quite interesting. I didn't know you gonNa go where you WanNa go with The idea of of that injury and paralysis it started to remind me a little bit of the phases where people lose the ability to speak but they could sang or they can't right but they could still read and it seems like there's a very specific part of the brain that performs very specific functions. And if it's injured everything else related still works just that one skill seems to go away. That's right by the issue with a lot of physical maladies and our work can be thought of as a metaphorical extension of that too intellectual capabilities. a lot of people don't know the physical maladies that they've got so as people become hard of hearing the often don't know that they're becoming hard of hearing and so the wonder why everybody's mumbling for example a lot of people who are colorblind. Don't know their colorblind really. Because I've never not been colorblind. I had no idea I thought you would order like when you look at a stop light you can see what are people talking about with. Red Lights and green lights. They'll look to me. Does Not Register or is that apparently not because you have you've never experienced redder you've never experienced green so you don't know what you're missing when you mention everybody's mumbling when I turned fifty. I remember having this absolutely true. I had a conversation with my wife was sitting at the breakfast Table One Sunday and I don't know what's going on with the New York Times but they're using some cheaper paper. Look how fuzzy words are and and then I said Look The Wall Street Journal. It's the same thing and my wife says idiot. You need glasses. And I'm like what no no. I have perfect vision. She handed me her glasses. And I'm like oh I had no idea. My vision had decayed so much at the ripe old age of fifty one Some years ago. And it's that exactly the same thing you have no idea that. The gradual decays taking place. Don't that's right so so what else. Oh you working on your. Your field of study has very much Evolved since the original Dunning Kruger work. What what else are you looking at these days? A related idea that we've been looking at quite a bit is this idea of hypo cognition. Hypo HYPO cognition And The best way to explain it is if you don't know what cognition is congratulations. You've just experienced TYPO card okay. Hypoc mission is not having a concept if you will so not having the idea of unknown unknowns in the financial A lot of people invest. But they don't really have the concept of exponential growth or compound interest e compounding his most the probability and statistical things very counterintuitive. People just can't wrap their head around it and when you show people compounding charts. They're very often credulous incredulous that weight. This much money. Can I had a whole discussion about the number of 401k? Millionaires and person said well maybe years ago. But you couldn't do that now. Why can't you do that now? It's these silly got however many years it is and Here's what you're expected. Returns are over forty years oh NPS your contribution levels are are up. It's easier today than it was thirty forty years ago. But if you don't have the concept What when you were talking about seems alien foreign or a little bit of a con So but We're studying that in number ways because we're interested in for example. What if people don't have a concept of scientific rigor? They don't know all the rules that I have to live under for example to verify or make the case for any sort of conclusion that I wanNA reach and that turns out to be related to To perceptions out there in the world the first perception is scientists can say whatever they want. Ya People Really Think Perot Not a majority but a clear percentage of people believed that. Is that specific to this country? Recyclable that I don't know I've only studied it within this country And it's also related by the way to distrusted science. That you just you don't have to listen to scientists. What they have to say really isn't useful and that it all does trace back impart but important part to not knowing that how much work it is to reduce piece of scientific knowledge you. You don't have the idea of control condition random assignment I can go on and on You can't cherry pick People don't know these rules and as a consequence they thinks I just some professors in their office dreaming up a conclusion and then collecting some data to window-dressing for example and yet we use technology to such a great deal to people think these are like ooh look a magic box that I can speak to people on. Its magic do they. Not Get technology and engineering is based on fundamental science. I mean that seems pretty obvious. If Science doesn't work then how could you fly in a plane? How could you take medicine? How could use you know? There's we get into an elevator at least in cities every day. Is it a magic box or is there science behind it it just? It seems so hard to accept that people are really science. Skeptical I well. I agree but I assure you that. That percentage of people does exist. What percentage of people that you study are truly science skeptics? Well we're not using representative samples but in the samples we get and there are actually a better educated than the average. American is about twenty twenty five percent. Let's say I don't know what the real percentages because I haven't done anything. That's a good representatives snapshot let's say the United States but you have to understand that a lot of people I mean the Ignorance of the scientific method runs so deep that a lot of people don't understand that scientists collect data right They they don't understand. That's a that's the that's the process and that data have the final authority in which able to conclude in which are able to say it just doesn't appear to them so if you ask Students I'd say in college or in high school. Do they believe in oxygen or do they believe in the in the electron? They'll go. Yes yes why? And they don't experiment they don't say data of base. We see that's what everybody says. That's what my teacher says. That's what my parents say so for a lot of people The idea of data is not what they think about. Um they're basing their beliefs and what other people say by the way which is the same basis they use To believe in things like reincarnation or ghosts or Karma That is the basis for people. Scientific believes tends to be the same as the basis of their supernatural beliefs. So it's just whatever. The societal consensus is they're accepting. It's social proof that's exactly right and the one question before we get to my favorite question. The one thing I wanted to ask you earlier but I didn't get to was was comes back to the nineteen ninety nine paper blowing up becoming so popular after that happens. How did that affect your subsequent research? Did the fact the topics you pick the did affect the options you had available like what did what did this paper blowing up due to your subsequent research. Well for many years it didn't do anything because It was known but the Internet wasn't fully in place yet. It wasn't a thing yet. I think that's happened far. Much more recently So I went off studied whatever I studied But then the world sort of told me no we want you to look at this And that's okay Because this was always the paper I didn't know how to follow up really yes You have the the two thousand eighteen follow up. What else came out of this paper? Oh a number of things have come out of this paper. So the question is when people most vulnerable the Dunning Kruger. Affect And the answer is when they have an answer When they believe they have expertise or they can spin a yarn. If you will I mean there are times when you just simply cannot come up with an answer and you know that you don't know right You know when you're guessing and that's some recent work We now have under review. The people know when they're guessing The problem of the Dunning Kruger effect is when you don't think guessing And coming up with wrong answer It's led to this work on a HYPOCHONDRIAC. It's led to this work on Gullibility We're now looking at. Do people know when they really need? Ask for advice That's an important consequence but a lot of these questions really weren't formed in my head until I started interacting with people like you or reporters or people in the airport For example are people randomly stopping you to ask? Dunning KRUGER QUESTIONS. Well has happened. I mean there's no escaping the baggage carousel your prisoner of their own. No well luckily no one can see my little label on the luggage but If my name gets called you know to get a seat assignment or whatever something like that. occasionally personal come over and say are you that. I mean this is wild. So it's had that impact But but basically I mean let's say the last act of my research career and the world has told me this is what it wants me to look at. So we're I'm now really asking the question Do Re do people really not know what they don't know. And what implications have quite fascinating went went is that research coming out Hopefully soon to journal in an eventually book near you. Excellent all right so Let me jump to my favorite questions that we ask all of our guests feel free to go as long as short as you like with this sure and these are really designed to be telling us to who you are because we may not know who you are What was the first car you ever own year? Making model of the first Kara own was in one thousand. Nine hundred seventy six Ford Pinto a mint Julep Green Ford Pinto. So if anybody is interested you should google mint julep green Ford Pinto..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Masters in Business
"You David. Thank you so much for doing this. I have been looking forward to this for a long time in there. I have all these formal questions and we kind of work our way through that. That's my crutch but I have all these other questions that I that I've been dying to ask you. And and the big one was on that chart which you surprise me with. I didn't realize you guys had hadn't created that and that only in two thousand eighteen. Did you end up? Validating what the Internet intuited about your work. So that's fascinating the the thing. That intrigues me so much. Why why is it that the way we learn is to start from zero assume we have knowledge that we don't and then build on that and all of a sudden there's an insight and we realize? Oh we are edits. We don't know half what we're talking about. And from from that broken down position we able to rebuild some true confidence relative to skills versus the false confidence and so the big question is what is it about the species that has this inherent in it because it seems to cause widespread problems across society. Well two things I mean. Let me start with the things. We don't pay attention to we. Don't pay attention to what we don't know we've already talked about that. And we also don't pay attention to luck and its potential role shoebox Essen failure For example we set that aside We're this comes from in terms of we think we've got this is that actually in many situations We start from zero and we do get it That is Every situation we face in one way or another this interview for example is a new situation. It it doesn't exactly replicate the past it unique. It's unique and our brain is able to fetch a lot a little elements of knowledge from everywhere to figure out. Okay what is this? How do I deal with this? What's the next move? The genius of our brain is taking something novel and coming to an understanding of it. This is similar enough to that that I could use what I learned last time to work my way through. That's right And that's essential for the species survive but sometimes that skill is going to derail it's going to lead to something that's absolutely wrong but it will look exactly right that is it will look like all those experiences. Where novel we figured out what was going on We figured out what we do. So for example. If you have a friend who's drowning in the lake you're on the dock and next and you don't have life preservers but you do have a basketball on a bowling ball next to you. Know which ball to throw them. You know how much you like them. She wants you like him. Exactly we we can innovate That's that's what we're we're built to do the promise. Those innovations may become misapplied. And that's where the dunning Kruger fat comes in we've Worked from this genius. We've worked from this amazing database. We have in our squishy little organic driver in her Server in her head and But we've misapplied and we don't realize that until well after the disastrous happened. So we're we're not aware of what we don't know our blind spots where we underestimate lock and I've seen some writings that say when we're successful. We credited to our own skill when we're unsuccessful we credit. It's a bad luck and not only that but with the art we do the opposite with other people when they're successful while they got lucky when the run successful. It's because they're not very skillful that sort of back to the. I'm special thing that seems to permeate everything doesn't it it does and that is exactly the. I'm special thing but one thing I should mention though is the I'm special thing. Though might be constrained in other parts of the globe that is so could be cultural. Oh there's a cultural element no doubt. We've actually studied that that this is something that attach is much more people with the heritage American Canadian. That's western European If you're coming from An Eastern culture You don't do As much at all this overestimation of sell for this special stuff that you'll find Americans do all the time And now I would imagine in China where there's a billion plus people it's harder to just assume your special or is that not even relevant. It's cultural more than anything. Well it's cultural in the sense of is the emphasis on me and what I can do. What can I imposed upon the world? That's very western as opposed to how do I fit in? How do I harmonize? How do I fulfill the role That I've been assigned or the role that I've fallen into. And that's much more eastern and you're just GONNA have a very different way of thinking if you're in the first culture as opposed to the second culture so you earlier we were talking about trust And I'm kind of intrigued by that. There's a question that is i. Guess sort of obvious. Why do we trust strangers? Why are we so susceptible to being defrauded or scammed? It seems that every other day I'm reading about some different Ponzi scheme or some different Insanity where people trusted someone they clearly shouldn't and it got them into a lot of trouble I think that comes from the fact we. We talked about norms earlier and one of the norms. We have That goes right down deep in the heart of what it means to have a conversation. Is We assume the other person's telling us is true unless there's evidence otherwise but the assumption is truth That's presumption that we have and that makes sense. Imagine a world in which I are. We all distrusted. What the other person's telling US would there would not be much coordination going on in the world So if you ask for directions a person tells you how to get to the Bloomberg building you assume other telling you the truth because Semaj if he said No. I don't trust them. What are you going to do right so even ask them in the first place exactly? So there is a norm or presumption of truth That serves us well for the most part in life but If the other person is malevolent if the other person is incompetent that Presumption is going to lead to a potential folly for example but we We do have actually ongoing work looking at People's ability to tell True science headlines from fake science headlines. And what's interesting to us? Is that The Arab people tend to make is tend to fake. Things are true. They make that error much more than they do. The reverse error thinking. A true thing is fake so in general people are Gullible So to speak. What's interesting though? Is you ask people? This is one of the rare areas where he will They don't say I have no bias. I see it the way. It is rather what they they say. They do. Have a bias there too. Skeptical there too wary of information out there they're more likely to Distressed a true thing than to accept a false thing. So this is the first time I've ever seen some A bias with a superpower it is most people are gullible but they actually believe they have the reverse bias at their to skeptical. But you know comes from a from A norm if you will that For the most part in life in day to day living it works. It makes Life eminently easier if we assume what? The other person's tone assist true because at the very least well the other prisoners. Join US is sincere right. That's quite interesting. I'm surprised in this era of misinformation and all the false memes all over the Internet that people still think their problem is well to skeptical. It's clear at least from the popular culture that we too easily believe things we shouldn't. Oh that's absolutely right and I have to admit we don't exactly have a handle on. Why do people think the reverse That's fascinating and once again. It's one of those findings. We get where I look at it and I and I go. I have no idea why this is happening That happens far too often my work. So what about nudges? Is there a way to to Referencing sunshine and failures Work on on small little systemic ways to steer people in the right direction. Is that something that can help? People make better decisions or we just left to our own faulty devices. Well our devices are always going to be somewhat faulty but we can reduce the fault. If you will we can never be perfect. But we can Reduce Vulnerability and for example. We talk about Gullibility There are a number of Resources that are being developed on the Internet even as we speak that are focused on. How do we get people to better evaluate what they're hearing over the Internet and Just to go over what the key movie is is that typically what people do is when they see something. That's provocative headline for example. They look at the website and try to figure out just based on that headline in the website inside itself is is something that I can believe. And so if it has snazzy professional picture for example they decided must be more believable No it's not the way to decide whether or not something is true or not Instead of internal reading which you have to do something that all fact checkers. No which is you have to do lateral reading. You have to go to other sources you have to go to other people Once again and find out other other sources saying the same thing is there any comment on the reliability of the source. You're looking at now from from other places Am I looking at something? That's mainstream or looking at something that's made up When people have to become is a little bit more like a journalist and what journalists dude. What fact checkers do is they check from multiple sources? They go to other sources to take a look at whether or not this piece of information is one that I can rely on and so in terms of nudges there. There are thematic judges Nudges like The lateral reading But they're also more specific things now that are popping up on the Internet That can be quite helpful At least in this on this issue That that's quite intriguing. Although I guess you could do the same thing with the deep fakes that are coming out. Some of the videos are really horrifying because they just look so real. How can you do lateral check in and find out if something like that? Israel well actually do this? I actually Google and see if anybody else has basically said Oh. This is a fake Basically so You can't tell from from the video itself because they are incredibly good. Now you really have to go to other sources and find out what other sources are saying so often what you find for example. If you do that you'll find out that videotape was created by such and such or is videotape. Actually comes from some other incident has nothing to do with what's going on here but basically In terms of dealing with misinformation. I think Either whether we're talking about students in school whether we're talking about adults the thing we have to do is Learn a little journalism by the way Just a quick other countries have actually gone this route and a big way so Finland because it's right next to Russia and has been at at a cool war with Russia for the last hundred years knows that Russian disinformation is coming over and so they're actually training students and training adults about how to tell fake from real in a in an intensive way That Well we could borrow a few of their techniques CL- Clinton interesting. There was something else in the book I had to ask you about. What is Ano- SOB- nausea and as nosy? I don't know if I pronounced that right but I certainly have no..
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Self insights roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing myself. The there was something in the book that just cracked me up. Which you don't normally get in an academic book Your special and it turns out now. Most of us are not special and we are wholly unaware of that. We've been told MOST OF OUR LIVES. How specially are tell us why so few of us are actually special. Well the problem is that Well if you look at the complete person each of us is special but if you put us in any situation or any circumstance where most mostly going to act like everybody else. Most of us are average. Most of us are average. Most of us are typical In any specific circumstance so if you aggregate all that all of who we are together we yeah. We are a special but when it comes to specific situations no or not special and so what that does leave people with. Though I is a people do have this idea that they are unique that they are exceptional and as a consequence. They can't yes. I'm just doing the check boxes. Yup Right of course absolutely and so what that means is that It turns out people have a good rough understanding of human nature. I'M NOT GONNA say it's perfect. That's by work but they do have a good understanding of human nature. The mistake they make is that they think they stand outside that nature that they are different. They're special that they're special. So for example we've done studies we asked There's going to be a food drive at your campus Let's say in a month. We'll you contribute to it And what percentage of people contribute to it? They're pretty good at nailing. The percentage of people on their campus are going to contribute to the food. Drive the rather good. These sort of figure at the situation is they can think about their experience. They come up with a good answer and that answer turns out to be right but when we asked them. Okay what are you GONNA do? Are you going to contribute? They way over estimate how much they're going to do the right thing. They're going to do the good thing that they're going to do the social thing Basically because they understand how the situation external forces will Prompt people to donate into not donate but they think they stayed outside those forces for them. It's just simply a decision. Do I want to donate or not and a lot of people want to donate so. Yeah I'm going to donate it. Turns out when the time comes. No they're subject to all these external forces that push against donation as was pushed for donation. So they they turn out to be typical just like everybody. Else so let. Let's talk about a related topic Again from the book about moral fortitude. You tell the story about being on radio show Around the time of the Clinton Peach Mint. I must trump impeachment. But this is this is twenty plus years ago The radio host goes off on a tirade about infidelity. And the more if you and failings of other people and you had at your fingertips a bunch of research about how everybody's expectations of their own moral superiority sort of fit into the dunning Kruger framework. We think we're much better at that than we really are. Oh that's true. That is because when you move to the moral domain the domain People definitely have this holier than thou attitude. I won't do it but other people will do it. If it's bad for example I would never Cheat on my beloved but other people of course are going to cheat on their beloved And it turns out. We did a number of studies down infidelity. But rather will you vote We'll be charitable you trade Will you Obey traffic laws For example and it turns out that people wildly overestimate themselves. That is a overestimate. How moral ethical and good they will be relative to what they think about other people and they also overestimate how moral and good. They're going to be relative to the reality When we actually Test either them or an equivalent group of people so The question for us is people tend to believe they're morally superior. Are they making a mistake about other? People are being too cynical about other people. Are they being too optimistic about the self and it turns out to be to my surprise and this is completely the reverse of what I expected people wrong about themselves exactly because they think they're special But so so. They're not being cynical about the rest of humanity. They pretty much have them nailed. They just think they're better than everybody. That's right with maybe one or two exceptions People are surprisingly accurate About the general rate about human nature in general how other people are GonNa be buffeted around by external forces? They just think they're for themselves are exempt from those forces. All right so we have. Meta cognition issues when we're trying to do a specific task that requires skills. There's a similar issue with our own sense of self an ethics and moral turpitude What other areas are subject to the Dunning Kruger effect? Well what else there might be. But is that everything is in no thoughts in action and everything else is leftover. No there's also the future if you think so people are also over optimistic about their prospects if you will really oh absolutely That is People really underestimate how long it's GONNA take to complete projects The underestimate Or how long it's GonNa take for their business to be profitable They When they're thinking about the future they tend to base their planning and their ideas on the most optimistic scenario rather than the most pessimistic scenario or maybe even the most realistic scenario so There are things we missed not only in terms of competence and character but also about our prospects. So how do we explain that I could imagine? I could concoct a lovely narrative tale as to why having an optimism bias is good for the species. Even if you're the guy from cave seventy three that doesn't come back from the mammoth ons. Everybody else has foreign meat for the winter. Or is this just a crazy narrative story or is there some evolutionary component to a well there isn't evolutionary component to it in a D and adaptability component to it? But it's complicated so the fact that people commit to things far too optimistically really does create those things. I mean Books written Businesses are developed movies are made Even though the people who start them out did far more work and are now far more depressed and tired than they ever imagined they would be at the end of those projects but If they had only been prepared for how long it was GONNA TAKE. They probably would come up with a better product. A better business in a better book So things get made But people will fail or they won't produce really what they're capable of producing very interesting all of which leads to one big question which is why do we seem to make the same errors in judgment. Is it something about the way we learn? Is it something about our fragile egos? Why as a species are we unable to get by some of these fairly obvious flaws? Well I think there are two things involved. One comes from the holier than thou work. Witches were overweight in our intentions and the powerful personality to produce things that that's part of what's going on when the power of our personality represent Becau- well I will do this because I want to do this and I That is part of. That's something that we overestimate. The other is the competence ankle. Which is we really. Don't know what we don't know and when Rumsfeld unknown unknowns the world is filled with unknown unknowns and And we don't know well not only do. We not know them. We don't pay attention to the fact that we don't know them. I mean too many people out there the idea of unknown unknowns still novel concept But it is something that Run now they don't know what they don't know but there is a lot of work showing that people just don't pay attention to what they don't know when they're making predictions or when they're planning things out they don't sit back and ask. Okay what is it that I don't know here? What Still Open What are the possibilities? That I'm not considering only that am I considering the fact that there are unknown unknowns and I should be planning for that possibility so you mentioned earlier planning i. I saw something kind of interesting around January nineteenth of this year. That's the date. When most people's New Year's resolutions fail does that sound remotely plausible. Or is it just Something else from the Internet surprised that our resolutions last that long. Oh really no kidding. So so why that raises the next question if we have all the best intentions and we want to fill in the blanks. Stop Smoking Exercise Lose Weight. Whatever it is. Why is it that when we make these sorts of plans all as a group on the same date every year? I can't imagine why would that not work well. It doesn't work because the world is waiting for US. In some sense it does have is unknown unknowns and it does have external forces that are going to defeat us and what we tend to do is we tend to focus on our plans. What am I going to do What are my intentions? What are the steps that I'm going to take what we really should do is interview? People tried to do this before and find out what the real difficulties are. They're going to be many difficulties that we haven't anticipated They're going to be many difficulties that we don't know about And not only that. There are probably tricks strategies tactics plans. We can make that. We wouldn't think of but someone else has thought of them and they actually work so we actually consulted with people who've Travel the road before us. We would do a much better job. I think anticipating The difficulties we have lionhead as well as being better armed with strategies that have a better chance of success all right so let me push back on that a little bit. The Diet Industry is like a twenty six billion dollar sector of the economy and they all have the magic Bullet and yet everybody in this country seems to be increasingly overweight Diabetes is a problem. There are all these weight related issues if we could speak to other people and have that conversation who have been successful. How does that work given the vast numbers of people Who Need Assistance? Losing Weight That's a very good question by the way evolutionary. This is a very novel task for. Having extra weight is a good thing if you have a shorter lifespan. We now live beyond that APP. That adaptation I think cholesterol was a big problem. Ten thousand years ago. That's right and probably wasn't a big problem. Even up to one hundred years ago getting calories was the up to very very recently So as a species we are dealing with a very novel task In trying to lose weight I think that There are some common sense that People can do But one of the things they can do is reset two things. The first is. What's a realistic Outcome in terms of losing weight But also having more realism in terms of how much effort And how much time is going to take to get there for example And also into things more in terms long term as opposed to the short term. I mean a lot of people think. How do I lose weight this month? Now the question is. How do you keep the weight? How'd you lose weight and keep the weight off for years and years and years But I think as a certainly society I think it's taking awhile for the collective wisdom to form because it does turn out to be a particularly difficult task so my I go for an annual physical every year my gp is also a cardiologist. And he's one of these old school doctors when they're don't the tests you go into their office you sit down and you have a conversation and we go through everything. It's all good and he says you have any questions for me. I'm like yeah I'd like to drop a few pounds. What do you suggest? And he very conspiratorially looked over each soul shoulder and then lean forward and whispered to me he less food and I'm like doc you know there's a giant industry who's whole purposes to not share that advice but it turns out to be good advice. Yes so eating a little less food. You can loosen wait. It's it's It's quite fascinating and yet it's hard to do than you would imagine then certainly than I imagined. No I think that's right. Well certainly in the United States. It's harder What I think is interesting now. This isn't psychology is. That's just my personal. Life is every so often spent time in Germany And I always lose weight in Germany without even trying. And why is that? Do you not like bratwurst and beer or Well a German cuisine is more than that not much more by the way I do more than that but it's all A lot of Schnitzel. When you don't know anything else to save choice It's a safe choice but I think most Well in Germany. The portions are small There the rest of the world portions of small. That's exactly right and that's an issue Most of the calories in Mueller conveyed by the sauce in the inevitable beer. You're going to drink right or the wind. You're going to drink There's also much more walking. Oh really bike riding. Yeah but can you walk off that many calories? I mean if you're Michael Phelps sure but for the rest of US. We're not putting in three hours a day of of sweating certainly true but if you just walk.
"dunning kruger" Discussed on Masters in Business
"Extra special guest this week. Is David Dunning? He is a professor of psychology at the University of Michigan where he focuses on the psychology underlying human misbelief. He is best known for his Nineteen Ninety nine study with colleague. Justin Kruger unskilled and unaware of it. How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to self inflated assessments. Dunning Kruger showed that people who were the worst performers significantly overestimated. How good they were. He is also the author of the book. Self insight roadblocks and detours on the path to knowing yourself David dunning welcome to Bloomberg. It's a pleasure to be here. I have been looking forward to this conversation for a long time. I am a giant fan of your work and I have to start with a really simple question. What's the origin of the study? What led you to a thesis that we're really bad at self evaluation. Well if you're an academic You meet up with many students and you meet up with many colleagues who say outrageous things and you just have to wonder. Don't they know what they're saying is Let me say this diplomatically. Odd Suboptimal and over the years. I just was intrigued with finding out whether or not people knew when they were saying things that were outrageous. Were obviously wrong on the face of it and so One Day Justin Kruger. Walk in my office. Said he wanted to study with me. And I said why. Have this high High Risk Reward. Study to do it has to do with the question. I've often wondered about and so he did the first original series of studies and were astonished. At how little people who didn't know didn't know about how little they knew so. I was on the impression that most academics have a thesis in there some data supporting it and when they go out and test it they have a little confirmation bias and they see what they expected to see. You're saying you guys were just shocked by the results of the study. That's right. I mean we expected it to work because if you think about the logic of it has to work. The question was one of magnitude When a student was failing the course for example or giving them a pop quiz on grammar. did They have some inkling that they're performing really poorly and the answer was maybe a little but not much and they were missing their true performance level by a mile by mile. So so how much of this that? That really raises A number of questions. So I I love the phrase Meta cognition the ability to self evaluate your skill set and your findings essentially find that this is highly correlated with an underlying scale. Whenever I try and explain this to a layperson it's pro golfers. Know how good they aren't where the weaknesses in their games are amateurs have no idea that they're not remotely as good as they think they are. Is that a fair oh I'm a perfect example of this so when I go up golf I often end up in the in the rough night when I drive the ball and The nicely the ball going the rough night. Go out to find it later on. And I'm always over guessing how far the ball went in the rough fight about twenty thirty yards. And I know this yet every time I drive the ball into the rough. I'm looking in the wrong place So yeah I mean amateur. Golfers don't know such terms as course management for example There's a number of concepts and number ideas. They simply don't have available to them and as a consequence they think they're they're doing the best possible job when factors a whole realm of competencies. They don't know about. They're just wholly unaware of what they know. That's right so you begin the the nine thousand nine hundred nine paper with a amusing anecdote. Tell us about the Pittsburgh Bank robber McArthur wheeler well. Mcarthur wheeler was a Spirent a bank robber. Who decided to go out and rob but needed a disguise. And he had heard that if you rub your face with lemon juice it renders the face Fuzzy or even a of invisible to bank security cameras and so he actually did tested out. He actually rubbed his face with juice at home pointed a polaroid camera or whatever At at his face and then he wasn't there he missing. The camera is st invisible about. He thought he wasn't visible. He went out with no actual disguise rob to Pittsburgh area banks during the daytime was immediately caught on security cameras. those tapes broadcast on the news and he himself was caught before the eleven o'clock news hour and he was incredulous because as he said. I wore the juice. I wore the juice so Thus ended his career of these sorts of mistakes. We make all the time we think we we have a strategy. That's going to work and to our surprise the world has different Lesson for us to learn so. Meta cognition sometimes. Looks a little bit like overconfidence. How similar or different are the two well Meta? Cognition is a number of things. A number of skills that underlie Being able to evaluate your judgments Evaluate your decision so sound often. It's overconfidence usually it's overconfidence It can be under confidence thinking. You can't do something that you can do It might be over-confidence her under conference but does your confidence rise and fall with the accuracy of your judgement. So is there a relationship Whether or not your conferences is a speed dominator that overstates where understates how well You're doing But there it also is knowing how to make a judgment Knowing when to stop thinking in start acting so knowing when There's a doubt that you really should be following up on. So over-confidence is a phenomenon. I think lies within a whole family of skills that you can call medic cognition which is basically skill in knowing how to evaluate your thinking and control your thinking quite fascinating. Let's talk a little bit about your nineteen ninety nine paper unskilled and unaware of it. This blew up in someone on most famous psychology papers. Ever when when you in Kruger were writing this. Did you have any idea that it was going to be this explosive No I thought it was going to have trouble being published because it actually has a unusual piece of work given the usual structure of paper in the Journal wheeled submitted to so the fact that it blew up was a big surprise the fact that it got published was also big surprises very very happy because internally. I thought it was a good piece of work but I didn't know if the world was going to agree so I I've seen your work misstated in a variety of ways. I'm sure you have also the one that I notice. All the time is stupid. People don't know they're stupid and while that could very well be true that is not the basic theme of your research. Is it no We were very clear from the outset. That the dunning Kruger effect is something that can visit anybody at any time. That is each of us. Has our own pockets of Incompetence and we just don't know when we wander into them so it Often the one mistake that people make is thinking about the dunning. Kruger effect is about them. Those as you say stupid people out there and the paper really was really about us and our cells and being Vigilant about the fact that sometimes we're GONNA wander into our own little personal disasters not knowing that a disaster is imminent so people trying to explain. Dunning Kruger. Themselves are suffering from the dunning Kruger. Oh in many different ways. So I if you're two different ways that People get it wrong. I is to is to think about other people and it's not about me The second is thinking that Incompetent people are the most confident people in the room. That's not necessarily true. That shows up in our data but they're usually less confident than the really competent people. But not that much but the real thing that I think is fascinating and this is only half five years. Is that if you google. Images of the dunning Kruger affect the charts. The chart well we didn't those aren't our charts so you didn't do mount stupid or the Valley of despair. No we did not that. It has nothing to do whatsoever with her. Ninety-nine paper or anything that we did subsequently and Do note of that. I I think it's it's delicious. That a lot of people think of the dining Krueger fact. They're talking about the dunning Kruger fact. They're videotaping toxin joining perfect. And what they're talking about is not the dunning Kruger effect They're suffering the effect about the effect itself. that's the first the second note though is given this situation we did face a dilemma in the lab. How do we fix this? How do we correct this? And so This is true in part We decided the most efficient ethical thing to do to steal the idea from the Internet Because the other problem with the idea that not being done in Kruger factors. It's it's more interesting so but we still the idea tested. It turns out that Mount Stupid Valley of despair a plateau V- enlighten time. Course if people see that we pretty much get that Pattern as we pays people through a completely novel task so so Internet is right so in other words and I'm I'm intrigued and fascinated by this. You never put out a chart. I always assumes that that Chart Hata come from your data because what are people just throwing lines and making it up and ps it intuitively. Looks right you would assume hey when so I play. Tennis only started recently to less than ten years ago. And when you start out and you don't hit the ball and you feel like if some control and you have some skill and and then and you're working your way up that mount stupid and then when you actually start to develop some skill not that I really have. But I'm better than it was five years ago. You realize Oh. I didn't know what the Heck I was doing. Just Ball and getting lucky when it catches the tape and all of a sudden you realize. Oh I'm way down this and and then you continue playing you get a little better in a little better. I don't know if this is over rationalization but it intuitively seems to make sense slow. Not only does it intuitively makes sense. It turns out to make sense And in twenty eighteen paper with Carmen Sanchez. We were able to demonstrate that Basically what happens is when you start a task and what we did is we had people. We put people. In a post apocalyptic road where they had to without supervision but with feedback diagnose who was infected with Zombie disease. Hoping that that wasn't something that people had experience with And basically what happens is if you're a beginner you start out way at the beginning. Being appropriately cautious. You really don't know what you're doing and you knew it but the problem is is that you have a few successes. They're probably due to luck than skill. Do you think you have it That is people Arrive at a theory Based on data that which is far too early far too sparse and far too unreliable. But I think I got it and then the next phase they have to go through is realizing Oh that theory really doesn't work And so we've been able to track that into show that In a number of studies So the Internet is right I'm very pleased with its intuition of this one But it is a little bit odd to get credit for an insight that we never had. But we're very happy to steal so essentially when you run the data showing The correlation between skill and Ability to self evaluate you end up with a Chart. That looks in his two thousand. Eighteen to paper looks remarkably similar to all the various pop. Psychology announced stupid charts. That are out there as you gain. Experience you. Unfortunately start with a burst of overconfidence. I got this. You know you don't and then Experience basically is correcting your Flattering impression of your skill as time goes on until at some point. Learning stops because of Experiences not new or learning does experience human limits but that That is the pattern by the way. If anybody flies airplane the they perfectly understand this pattern. It's not beginning pilots. Who are the most dangerous? It's pilots. Let's say six hundred eight hundred Flight Hours They.