9 Burst results for "Dr Steve Goodman"

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Newsradio 830 WCCO

Newsradio 830 WCCO

13:35 min | 4 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Newsradio 830 WCCO

"Randolph and the family van afternoon everybody hopefully you get a chance without proper social distancing enjoy this up Viewtiful afternoon good conversations in the first hour on social distance scene in the state of Minnesota I Dan it's a good work battle between Adam Carter and Susie Jones you're right on the radar and up all did we put that out there yet we will shortly we well we need to get that out there then a great conversation with Pete Najarian we'll have some fun with overrated underrated properly rated by the hour we'll carry governor walls what he has to say the plan is today were to Kerry governor walls his comments break away and then we go back to questions then we'll go back to governor walls and then one of our favorites major Kerr at two thirty five but when I bring in a professor I have epidemiology at Stanford University Dr Steven Goodman is kind enough to join us because we're all just so fascinating fixated on these numbers right on Adam just pointed out the number the fifth tally number has jumped in Minnesota to ten we have the numbers yesterday from doctor Fauci and we get hung up in particular for all the valid reasons on who has called a nineteen right now and what does that mean and Dr Steve Goodman has some interesting points in that sticky thanks so much he is on the centerpoint energy home services hotline Sir let's just talk about the numbers and what how we should process these numbers as everyday citizens and and how do you think we should look at them differently thanks for having me on and of course that's a great question because everybody's looking at those numbers and worrying wearing both for themselves and for their communities the the first thing I'll say is that the number of reported cases is really quite misleading and that the the really funny number because it does it mislead them in two ways first of all it's it's all tied up with the amount of testing so we already know that there are many many more cases out there that it section I don't want to date clinical cases to people who are affected who could be spreading it then are tested positive probably at this moment ten to twenty times as many and I can I can step you through our I would say that because I was just stop you right there because I think people would like to know because at it that is startling how how do you get to the numbers we have really should be multiplied by twenty times right so first of all I want to say before I tell you how to get there sure is that that that that doesn't necessarily that should naturally worried people are although it explains why we're doing what we're doing now and why you're doing what you're doing yeah in terms of social distancing and and and Minnesota to be congratulated starting that at a at a point before some other state debt and and I think they are paying the price so what every number you see in terms of the case today is is somebody who was symptomatic as a result of infection one to two weeks ago do you think time lagged result so during the the one of the reasons that you're only paying a portion is that your only during that time from that infection the cases have multiplied since then and it depends of course on how quickly they have been accumulated and then in the early part of this epidemic in many places that hadn't taken local bit the thing the the cases and this was the case in New York were doubling every three days so by the time you were reporting testing numbers that was two or three doubling times ten the people were first enacted the other reason why the number of positive path greatly understate the numbers and this depends on exactly the criteria that are being used in Minnesota for testing and yeah over in California because of both the both of lack of paths and because of the lack of personal protection equipment every character out that have that equipment and they want to reserve that for the people in the hospital so we're reserving our testing for people are pretty symptomatic or have significant symptoms at all but that number is only about one fifth of the total that is if you're infected your chance of getting symptoms significant enough to merit testing are only about one in four one five so automatically again that's another five fold difference between the number infected versus the number who are actually being tested and reported so depending on the criteria being used for testing in Minnesota you might be testing a lot of people who have very minimal symptoms or you might be tapping mainly those people who show their numbers themselves but in any case those are just a fraction of the total infected so in that way Sir if I just ask a question in some ways Sir no matter what we're never gonna come close to knowing exactly how many people have called in nineteen you will probably only know in retrospect when we do math antibody screening of people to find out who was infected not who is infected now what we'll know that war if the path come online and we are able to do those soon on a mass level on a population level we'll begin to know but what's more important I just want to point out there are some numbers that you should be focusing on and those of the hospitalization because the people get sick enough because of it to be hospitalized and then they are tapped it for sure that's independent of testing right now you have ninety two it looks like I'm looking on the Minnesota website and and that's great it's not a huge number but you need to look dated day how quickly that increase that is the movies only solid number as long as your hospital they're not turning white people but they're not over well gonna be presumably they're not close to it so that's a very important number and it would be great if your department of health we did that in a graph just like its reporting number of positive results and then people would be the real rate of increase then and and that's what you want to keep hello you know around ten percent if it starts going up to twenty thirty percent then you're getting ten percent of the doubling every seven days of five percent would be a doubling like every twelve days so that good numbers you want to keep the focus on and be great different states would report those consistently and they're not even California not reporting so that's that's the problem it's very hard to keep track of things New York City is reporting it C. goodness what this professor of epidemiology at Stanford University give us a really interesting look at some of the numbers and how we should be judging them and what is a better way to quantify this long stay with your last point there so when you talk about well New York is doing this Minnesota in California are not we have this interesting dichotomy now of what is the federal role versus we have states you know they are they're allowed to do certain things differently but then they're also relying on the federal government do you think we should have a specific federal guidelines on how a re we are reporting some of these numbers or are you still not happy with with the states are doing it but accepting all of the differences that we see but I think there are certainly room for state differences and and in the kind of restrictions that they impose the weather data ready to put in lockdown or whatever that I do think probably should be on a state by state basis although erring on the side of extreme conservatism but the reporting requirements that could easily be federalized because I think most states are not understanding how critical the hospitalization and also I see you numbers are again your reporting those but I don't see that in a graph so I don't know you might have to check in every day that you get the the night your report them consistently and and show that the rate of increase in yep I do think there should be a federal guideline because it's extremely inconsistent and it's very hard to know for states to really know where they are that's the perfect kind of thing and a lot of states have the data they're just not showing it so I I I would say yes that should be a federal guidance coming from the BBC it would be really nice the president with the guidance of doctor about you know others are extended the the guidelines through today through April thirtieth in looking at how you're explaining the numbers what we have what we need to look at the numbers we should have more of how should we determine when we're at a point whether it's at the federal level or the state level where more people can start to assimilate back to their everyday lives through jobs through businesses how do we get there again a fantastic question the first thing we're going to one of the is the these curves and bending down and then we are we're gonna want to get better information on who's truly vulnerable and and see if we can develop sort of more targeted a smarter policies about exactly which restrictions to relax not an all or nothing thanks there may be will allow certain people obviously people have infected their immune the navy will will allow gatherings of only a certain size but what I'd really interesting statistic that comes out of New York and they just start reporting it on Saturday is that ninety eight percent of deaths are in people with pre existing conditions at all ages though it there's been a big focus on you know over sixty five is a big risk group no if you are healthy over sixty five it looks like the risk of dying from that is relatively low although we still don't have the exact numbers much lower if you if you don't have the existing conditions that you do and family you're not immune if you're young the this extends all the way down to the folks in their twenties and thirties with existing conditions much higher than without so these are the kinds of numbers that gonna are going to inform policies going forward first we need to see these curbs bending down and then we have to learn and we're learning more every single day about exactly who is the greatest threat and then figure out how best to protect them and ourselves Steve I really enjoyed this conversation I gotta jump in here and take a break thank you so much for coming on I can assure you as this continues to go because of what you've laid out we're gonna reach out to you can so stay healthy thanks again for coming up thank you Steve good professor of epidemiology Stanford University really really do a different approach to the numbers that we have what is a fair reflection and what we should look at in the present and moving forward the president made this decision yesterday in a press conference that was that was classic Trumpian on what he was saying at times it was great deference to doctors but other times let me just be blunt as blunt could be the president was lying again about what he said I'm not gonna spend an inordinate lot of time talking about the president and the facts because if you're credible you know the president facts are optional but I want to talk about that and I want you to chime in through a text or a phone call and I keep getting as well you only watch part no I watched all of Sean Hannity I watch the briefing on Friday and I watch the briefing on Sunday so one cherry picking is taking place about what the president said I'm not doing it I'm not relying on the times the post CNN or Dan cook I sought with my own eyes and ears and the president's line about two points where is our balance and how much time we should spend on that compared to what's going on because for me it's not as important as cold in nineteen oh one the president of the United States in a pandemic as usual cannot be trusted and we act like it's no big deal I think that's absurd I chime in six five one nine eight nine ninety two six Chad Hartman hi it's Jamie progresses employee of the month to month in a row leave a message at the paging me it's me Jamie do not forget to buy lentils what lentil soup you're making for dinner will be sorely lacking by the way Mrs Calloway says thanks for helping her bundle home and auto she appreciates the interstate means even though you kept using the word after opposing correctly but the main thing is do not forget to buy was it something I propose the lentil soup sorry I'll call you back the rest of casualty insurance company affiliates discounts not available in all states or situations bad.

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"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Radio Free Nashville

Radio Free Nashville

13:31 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Radio Free Nashville

"I mean a good man and I also just want to say I can't say enough about the team of people who are making this broadcast possible as everyone in this country right now yet now is dealing with this pandemic as people are around the world it takes a community and we have an amazing one here and I am ever thankful every single day seven weeks since the first case of the corona virus was reported in the United States we're spending the hour looking at how the trump administration not only has failed to account for what is clearly thousands of infections in this country because of ongoing problems with access to testing but we're talking about what needs to happen next this is the critical issue we're broadcasting from New York the mayor of New York just declared a state of emergency in the city he said while they're about a hundred people have tested positive just in New York City alone next week is expected to be a thousand just down the road in new Rochelle in Westchester is the epicenter of the corona virus and that came from one person who tested positive and very soon after his wife and two kids tested positive and now there's well over a hundred fifty people the National Guard are now in new Rochelle the schools are close they want to make sure kids get food because many kids all over this country get free lunch at school what happens when the schools are closed I so we're gonna be talking about a lot of issues still with us is doctor Stephen Goodman associate dean at Stanford medical school where is also a professor of epidemiology and population health and medicine I trained as a pediatrician he is also my brother my lifeline and issues like these he's joining us from Stanford University and joining us from Baltimore is Justin less slur associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health senior author on a new study that suggests the median incubation period for the new corona viruses about five days so I just unlocked floor I want to start there what does that mean why is that significant that the incubation period is perhaps five days we've been hearing a lot about ten and fourteen and then I want to ask you about your work in China so the median incubation period is five days so that means fifty percent of people are going to develop symptoms within five days of being infected but it's important to remember that's not necessarily the number we're most concerned with if we're thinking about quarantine or active monitoring yourself isolation after potential exposure because we you know we don't want half the people who are infected to be out there in the community potentially spreading the virus before they know they have it so what we're more concerned with is is what we call the long tail of that and that's where we get to the fact that in our study we showed that about ninety eight percent of people develop symptoms by twelve days which suggests that the fourteen day period of quarantine or active monitoring suggested by almost every public health agency around the world is pretty good I mean some people will get free that but it was you know but it's pretty good is gonna cast sure the vast majority of people who develop symptoms will do so during that period so let me ask you about your work in China talk about the study you just completed comparing lu Han to a neighboring city tell us about the outbreak in Wuhan what happened how it was dealt with and how it was dealt with nearby so I just to be clear our study was looking at the epidemiology in sins in China we weren't directly comparing with Wuhan but Wuhan just to talk about it a bit had you know is the epicenter of the entire outbreak they clearly had things get out of control in the beginning and had to shut down the entire city and really a lot of the whole province of who may which you know they've not had to do in Italy as well so it's an example of both how bad things can get if we're not careful about staying on top of things and very proactive but it's also an example of the fact that you know massive direct action and can sort of squash the epidemic and stop the virus so where we did our work in shins and there has been a big outbreak and part of that I think is a proactive social distancing measures over the types of things are starting to see in the United States now get stopping mass events having people work from home and the like but they also had very intensive surveillance and very intensive contact tracing of cases that came in from bay province and elsewhere in China and that probably played a big role in why they didn't have an epidemic so can you talk about the fact that it looks like both in China it's hard to say were saying there's good news out of China right now because of this terrible pandemic but the actual good news that's coming out of China and South Korea as opposed to what we're seeing right now in Italy and now the United States were just beginning to understand the scope of the outbreak here yes Sir China clearly has been able to contain the disease at least temporarily I think there's a big question of what happens as they start to dial back all of the extreme measures they've taken in order to contain the disease and you know whether we see a resurgence or whether their skis me whether they're able to do that in a way that more gradually you know a more gradual dial dial back in a way that prevents the virus from resurging in in the country and you know it really is you know I think Italy is taking a similar course to China at world it remains to be seen how effective it is that you know it is in Italy it's a very different culturally population is different you know in US we're in a different part of the outbreak I think the hope is since we're early by doing things proactively cancelling the NBA canceling the NCAA tournament everybody working from home closing schools that we can get to a point where we're slowing the spread of this virus without having to have measures as extreme as were taken in China Dr Steve Goodman if you could talk about what's happened in Italy that horrific odd turn of events there where the entire country is on lockdown where the medical system is clearly overwhelmed and then talk about the United States and this whole issue of flattening the curve a term I think a lot of people are just beginning to hear right now but what do you understand took place in Italy well I haven't I don't have special expertise about exactly what's going on Italy but what is very very clear is that the the greed of spread and then present it has overwhelmed the medical care system that is very clear so part of what's happening there is an example of when and when an epidemic goes to its peak and is greater than the medical infrastructure can take care of it and as you may know there have been extremely poignant pieces both tweets and and other forms of communication by Italian doctors who literally have it with great distress talked about how they had to basically choose life and death for patients for whom they had to choose who to ventilate and who not to because they all they had a limited number of of ventilators so we don't want to get there and in this country so it again it shows that the case fatality rate which ultimately is one of the numbers that that produces the most fear is a is a function not only of how many cases are how many serious cases but how much can be absorbed and properly treated by the medical care system and so that gets right into your second question which is about flattening the curve the the goal of mitigation efforts now which is to obviously lower the number of cases and spread them out is to keep the number of cases to a level where the medical care system can adequately take care of each one where we have enough personnel where we have not found the waiters we have enough ICU beds we have enough beds in the hospital to take care of everybody optimally and the idea of flattening the curve is taking a and under certain number of cases that would occur in a certain period of time and spreading it out over time so the peak is less and so it occurs over a much longer period of time and hopefully obviously also reducing the number of cases but this match both regionally and nationally between the number of facilities personnel beds and go quick meant this has to be matched with a number of cases that are in that area it would be nice to hear from public health officials or national officials how they plan to shift resources if in fact the medical care capabilities in any particular region is outstripped by the number of cases but that's what flattening the curve is all about and that's what all of the measures that's described by yourself by Justin are attempting to do and this issue of respirators in the United States of ventilators of the access most people they do not want to go to the hospital even to their doctor's office most people actually will survive this and it's like a flu and for many people it's mild and for children I even less so that they can be carriers but this issue of overwhelming the number of respirators and ventilators and hospitals around the country can you explain that well obviously the numbers are limited I think we have something on the order of about a million beds and the actual number they're available on any one day is about a third of that the number of ICU beds is a fraction of that and I want to make it a particular point that this is not just about caring for cobit patients the eight the number of covered patients entering the system affects the care of other patients so the kinds of things that we take for granted and arms of care of any of us for any serious disease is affected by the demand on the medical care system for the care of covered patients so we are not geared up as a society for the start with the surge capacity to handle the number of potential covered patients that we would get if we didn't do anything so the kinds of things we're doing now are to keep the numbers below the search capacity the limited very limited search capacity that we have and again this is not just a national issue we can't just count that count up the number of national beds we have to look at this regionally the number of cases in New York City with the number of ICU beds in New York City and have disability to move those cases if in fact those numbers don't match up Dr Steve Goodman is associate dean at Stanford medical school Justin last letter is a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health we're continuing with them after this break the record by radio head this is.

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Radio Free Nashville

Radio Free Nashville

13:06 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Radio Free Nashville

"There to have the test anybody wants to test gets a test that's what president trump said this comes as the trump administration's coronavirus task force has gone two days with no press briefings and the World Health Organization has officially classified the corona virus outbreak as a pandemic for the rest of the hour we're joined by two guests and Baltimore trust and Leslie is with us he's associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health senior author and a new study that suggests the median incubation period for the new corona viruses about five days and joining us from Stanford University which is now closed to students on campus it Scott online learning Dr Steven Goodman is with us associate dean at Stanford medical school where he's also a professor of epidemiology and population health and medicine and he's also my brother he joins us from Stanford University yes they are continuing like Johns Hopkins to hold their classes online over concerns about cove it nineteen we welcome you both to democracy now Steve let's begin with you I consider you my lifeline on issues like this and that's why we called you why don't we start by this issue of testing it is absolutely astounding that in countries like North like in countries like South Korea where we hear the tests or something like twenty thousand a day in this country it is believed that there have only been eleven thousand tests over the entire period of this outbreak how is this possible what happened well I don't know all the details of what happened but it is clear that there were decisions that were made centrally about what tests to use and restrictions on who could do the test that has been changed and finally other laboratories including one at Stanford have finally been authorized to develop and now delivered their own tests so the original decisions to use a U. S. specific test not the one that was suggested by the W. H. O. which has been used in many many other countries in retrospect obviously was a big mistake and we had trouble manufacturing and distributing a valid task centralized at the CDC I mean this is now have this is a critical issue right I mean there was a test available it was the World Health Organization tests the one that countries all over the world are using now but the CDC made a decision not to accept that test they made their own test send it out and it was faulty that's right so now we're having to depend on the many labs around the country and commercial laboratories to develop and offer this test we're really just gearing up now for that the Stanford test which is the one that's being used regionally also for a variety of medical institutions I think they this week they were offering between two and three hundred a day they say that next week they'll be up to about a thousand a day that obviously is not remotely enough to track the where the epidemic is going but that's what we have right now regionally nationally I I don't know what the capacity is but as Dr Fauci said we are way way behind well let's bring professor Justin less learn to this conversation from Hopkins from Johns Hopkins let's talk about why testing is so important why is it so important that we know in this country where the disease is where the outbreak is why is it important to know the number I mean this is our ability to get have situational awareness about what's going on with the virus where it is how to react so you know the most extreme measures that we take to combat the virus you know essentially potentially closing whole cities down like they did in China or Italy we don't want to do those in places where there isn't a lot of you know there isn't actually a lot of disease and we don't want to wait till the hospitals are filling up with dead people to do this because then it's sort of too late so we want to you know react in time and that has to do that means we need testing and that means we need to be testing with the right intention I think there is still some a nurse towards trying to test people who've traveled Xcerra with the idea that we're going to go around those people and contain and you know trace their contacts and try to find those chains of transmission but I think we maybe need to rethink that with the idea that what we really want to situational awareness about what's going on in the community and what's our silent out you know what silent outbreaks might be happening so that we can respond accordingly and our public health measures and in terms of people isolating themselves Dr Steve Goodman on if you can talk about what it means not to have a test so you don't know even if you've been exposed to someone who has tested positive and also isn't that true that these tests at this point in most cases take days to get results although there are some that are now being developed that simply take hours but what it means for people protecting the community well as Justin said people don't actually know what the threat is they don't know how many people around them have the disease and they don't know obviously whether they themselves have the disease if if they have been exposed so it's very very difficult for either public health authorities to calibrate the response properly is Justin just described or individuals to calibrate their own actions and and I also want to point out that when we talk about self isolation or anything that an individual can do the paradigm really has to be not just what can I do to protect myself but what can we each do to protect each other and the act of self isolation is not just individual protection is protecting everybody you're in contact with but to know how extreme the behavior should be whether you should not go to a park whether you should not go to the store is very much driven by your awareness as Justin describe it situational awareness of how many cases there are often silent cases in your own community in your own neighborhood going to your own stores so this decision this personal decision has social and health consequences but without testing we're flying blind I want to go to the issue of coronavirus and if you could talk about the different Steve or what the language is coronavirus cove it nineteen for people to understand explain that the lexicon the error of this disease and also how it compares to the flu president trump has repeatedly tried to say that the flu kills tens of thousands of people he said who know the flu killed it actually turns out that his grandfather Friedrich trump died of the flu and this country at a young age but he tried to use it to show you know corona virus doesn't even compare so talk about both the language we use and what it means and comparison with the flow well covered nineteen is the name of the disease not the virus specifically and and what we're most concerned about is obviously the spread of the disease let me talk about the flu and the the flu is a big killer and it doesn't affect many people I think we have roughly in the in the range of fifteen to twenty million and this season alone in the United States with a roughly one thousand death rate so in the in the range of fifteen to twenty thousand deaths from the flu so that fluids very very serious but that represents roughly five to seven percent of the U. S. population and the we have and the reason it it doesn't represent more is because both we have flu shots and we have years decades of of of of the of sort of cross reactive immunity built up over people been exposed to different virus strains the difference in this but with this virus is to first of all no one is immune so in theory a hundred percent of the population is susceptible to this virus or very close to it the second part is the the finality right either for people who present to the medical care system sick enough to go to a doctor or per infection which is something different because not everybody who is infected naturally goes to a doctor looks to be a fair bit higher than the flu maybe on the order of five times maybe even ten times higher than the flu so we have a maybe a much much larger reservoirs susceptible people on the order of ten to twenty times larger and we have a fatality rate that is between five and ten times larger so that's why the potential for this even though we have a tiny fraction of the cases and deaths right now why we're taking the extreme measures that we are taking all that said a lot of the finality rate can be affected by what we do and that's why we're doing it now because of the tally rate as a function both of the age of the people were infected but also of the capability of the medical care system to take care of them so if we can protect the medical care system that is keep the number of patients coming in at a rate that they can be cared with before with adequate ICU beds and ventilators et cetera and also healthy medical care folks we can keep the that we can keep the fatality rate low or at least lower than it would have been without that we're gonna break thank come back to this discussion I we're gonna talk about strategies to keep yourself and your family healthy what to say to children both of you doctor good men and doctor less slur have children how you're talking to them about what could be to say the least extremely frightening for them as it is for the whole population and I want to ask doctor less slur about the study he did in China comparing whoa Han and how it dealt with the corona virus with a community right next door we're talking to doctor Steven Goodman he is associate dean of the Stanford medical school and Justin less slur Johns Hopkins Bloomberg school of public health associate professor this is democracy now we'll be back with them in a minute his is she the long days over by Norah Jones this is democracy now the warring peace report.

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"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

Democracy Now! Audio

09:47 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

"This is the worst public health crisis for regeneration. Some people compare it to seasonal flu. Alas that he's not right owing to the lack of ood immunity. This disease is more dangerous. And it's going to spread further and I must level with you level with the British public. More families. Many more families are going to lose loved ones before that time. British Prime Minister Johnson. He did not close. Schools are banned gatherings of more than five hundred people. Britain's chief medical officer said in a worst case scenario more than eighty percent of Britain would contract the virus with one percent mortality rate that equates to more than half a billion deaths five hundred thousand half a million deaths half a million here in the United States during his press conference in Vermont Thursday Senator Sanders said the federal government would prioritize the care of communities. Who are that. They should prioritize the care of communities. Most vulnerable during the corona virus pandemic the elderly people with disabilities in house. People low income people. Those who are uninsured an unemployed we need also in this economic crisis to place an immediate moratorium on evictions on Foreclosures and on Utility shut offs. So that no one loses their home during this crisis and that everyone has access to clean water electricity heat and air conditioning. We need to construct emergency homeless shelters to make sure that the homeless survivors of domestic violence and college students quarantined off. Campus are able to receive the shelter the health care and the nutrition they need Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden. We'll debating in Washington D. C. as opposed to Arizona where they were going to debate and there will not be an audience because of the Corona Virus Dr Steve Goodman Dan Dean at Stanford Medical School and Justin Leisler professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health or with us from Baltimore and from Stanford California Dr Steve Goodman this issue of the poor in the United States and people who are working poor who are without insurance people who are unemployed while everyone says that the corona virus hits everyone which is clearly true there are communities that are particularly vulnerable right now how they be protected well this is an issue for public health officials. Obviously they have to be able to take the same measures that anybody would take to to reduce the spread. The ones we've already talked about however the ability for less wealthy or poor individuals to take time off from work to sequester themselves in their homes To Take care of their children May Be quite different than than others. So we we have to think about it. I think Bernie has it about right. We have to think about this as a social responsibility. Not just a an issue for individual action because people's ability to protect themselves are constrained by their own economic circumstances in their own living circumstances if they're living in very very tight quarters with many people in in in in in communities where other people might be sick it is very very difficult for them to take care of themselves and needless to say if they don't have access to medical care or they're afraid to seek it because of Because they're afraid of the bills. That's another huge problem. Easy for people to get tested and to access care and if they're undocumented and afraid to seek and afraid to seek testing as well absolutely justin less slur if you could also address this issue and then. I'd like to ask you how you're talking to your children so I agree. It's absolutely critical to find ways to protect those populations that are not going to be able to take social distancing measures have more trouble with that potentially have food insecurity if they don't go to school or go to places where there might be mass gatherings and I think you know it's one of those things where we do have an individual responsibility not to just you know. Keep ourselves out of the community but do things to help others. Keep themselves out of the community. You know the government is going to be overwhelmed by this and you know we're not as a country set up to provide services in a crisis the way is maybe needed now and now there's a bill being weighed. The Democrat led. House set to vote on a bill that would grant workers fourteen days of paid sick. Leave up to three months of paid family and medical leave. Unemployment Insurance to furloughed workers includes additional five hundred million dollars to help feed low income pregnant women or mothers with young children who lose their jobs or laid off because of the virus outbreak President Trump said. He did not support the bill. But because we're coming to the end of this conversation as people push hard for the entire community to be protected the that sits individuals but it also brings out the importance of people around the world as a community. Can you talk about what you're saying to your kids professor less ler? Yeah I mean my son is six and his school just got cancelled so I'm trying to explain to them that there's the disease out there. It's scary It's wondering why his dad's working so much but the I'm trying to explain to him that it's important to wash his hands that it's important to you know. Think about what he's doing out there in the community and that maybe he won't be able to go to school do the same things that is that he is usually able to do for fun. I can talk more explicitly to my mother who is in their seventies in high risk who I had to sort of say this is real. Stay home self isolate. Don't don't go out and this is why is that. The children don't tend to children. This is not as fatal for as it is for older people especially over seventy and eighty right. I mean and Wuhan at last report I saw from Honda was in detail out of out of thousand deaths over a thousand deaths. Only one was in people somebody under twenty years of age so it's pretty mild and children do not seem to be at risk even more so than the flu where we see children get sick and potentially die occasionally in the youngest age. That doesn't seem to be happening right now for the current virus and but we do not know we know they can get infected and we do not know whether or not they can pass it on so you know keeping children Critical part of our more imperilled presumably. We don't know for sure And Steve What you tell your kids my nieces and nephew who are bit older but also as so many people in this country afraid right now. So what's interesting is that my kids are both in college actually here at Stanford and they're more worried for us. I don't have to tell them everything anything they read. They're smart and they're much more concerned about their threat to us than Than than anything else. So they're taking the steps they need to take to prevent us from getting sick. And it's a very interesting reversal of generational roles. Perhaps a premonition of the future but I think this is a responsibility that many young people feel not just protect themselves because they themselves are not that worried but they are definitely worried about the older generation the same way that Justin is concerned about his mom and of course Gerald Starter just had a baby here in New York in the midst of this pandemic indeed. Yes and she is Naturally self isolating but Is is being extremely careful about her own exposure and needless say their new child. Well I WANNA thank you both for being with us Dr Steven Goodman Associate Dean at Stanford Medical School where he's also professor epidemiology and public health and medicine and also my brother and just in less ler says she professor Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. We also want to welcome to the world. Andre Sorry Marino Camarena congratulations to eagerly and Drian. That does it for our show. Everyone wash your hands be safe. I'm Amy Goodman an enormous. Thank you to the whole team. That may democracy now happened today..

professor Justin Leisler Stanford Medical School Senator Sanders Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Dr Steve Goodman United States Amy Goodman Dr Steven Goodman Hopkins Bloomberg School of Pu Britain flu Andre Sorry Marino Camarena Stanford Prime Minister Johnson Bernie federal government
"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

Democracy Now! Audio

09:09 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

"I think is a proactive. Social distancing measures so the types of things. We're starting to see in the United States. Now GET STOPPING MASS EVENTS. Having people work from home and the like but they also had very intensive surveillance and very intensive contact tracing of cases that came in from. Who Bay province and elsewhere in China and that probably played a big role in why they didn't have an epidemic. So can you talk about the fact that it looks like both in China? It's hard to say we're saying there's good news out of China right now because of this terrible pandemic but the actual good news. That's coming out of China and South Korea as opposed to what we're seeing right now in Italy and now the United States were just beginning understand the scope of the outbreak here. Yes China clearly has been able to contain the disease at least temporarily. I think there's a big question of what happens as they start to dial back. All of the extreme measures they've taken in order to contain the disease and whether. We see a resurgence or whether they're excuse me whether they're able to do that. In a way that more gradually a more gradual dial dial back in a way that prevents the virus from resurging and in the country and Italy. Is You know I think? Italy's taking a similar course to China where it remains to be seen. How effective it is you know it is in Italy. It's very different. Culturally population is different and us were in a different part of the outbreak. And I think the hope is since we're early by doing things proactively canceling the NBA cancelling the NCAA tournament. Everybody working from home closing schools that we can get to a point where we're slowing the spread of this virus without having to have measures as extreme as we're taken in China Dr Steve Goodman if you talk about what's happened in Italy The horrific Turn of events there where the entire country is on lockdown where the medical system is clearly overwhelmed and then talk about the United States and this whole issue of flattening the curve a term. I think a lot of people are just beginning to hear right now. But what do you understand? Took place in Italy Well I haven't I don't have special expertise about Exactly what's going on Italy? But what is very very clear. Is that the The gree of spread and And present a has overwhelmed. The medical care system. That is very clear. So part of what's happening. There is an example of winning when an epidemic goes to its peak and is greater than the medical infrastructure. Can Take care of it and as you may know There have been extremely poignant. pieces Both tweets and and other forms of communication by Italian doctors who literally have with great distress talked about how they had to basically choose life and death for patients for whom they had to choose who to ventilate and who not to because they had a limited number of ventilators. So we don't want to get there in this country so again. It shows that the case fatality rate which ultimately is one of the numbers that that produces the most fear is a is a function not only how many cases or how many serious cases but how much can be absorbed and properly treated by the medical care system. And so that gets right into your second question which is about flattening the curve. The the goal of mitigation efforts now which is to obviously lower the number of cases and spread them out is to keep the number of cases to a level where the medical care system can adequately take care of each one where we have enough personnel where we have an offense leaders. We have enough. Icu beds we have enough beds in the hospital. Take care of everybody. Optimally and the idea of flattening the curve is taking a certain number of cases that would occur in a certain period of time and spreading it out over time for the peak is less and so it occurs over a much longer period of time and hopefully obviously also reducing the number of cases but this match both regionally and nationally between the number of facilities personnel beds and equipment This has to be matched with a number of cases that are in that area. It would be nice to hear from public health officials or national officials how they plan to shift resources. If in fact the medical care capabilities in any particular region is outstripped by the number of cases. But that's what flattening the curve is all about and that's what all of the measures just described by yourself and by Justin are attempting to do and this issue of respirators in the United States of ventilators of the access. Most people they do not want to go to the hospital even to their doctors offices Most people actually will survive this and it's like Flu and for many people it's mild and for children even less so though they can be carriers but this issue of overwhelming. The number of respirators ventilators hospitals around the country. Can you explain that well? Obviously the numbers are limited. I think we have on the order of a million beds and The actual number they're available in any one day about a third of that the number of ICU beds is a fraction of that. And I WANNA make a particular point that this is not just about caring for Cova patients the the number of covert patients entering. The system affects the care of other patients. So the kinds of things that we take for granted in terms of care of any of us for any serious disease is affected by the demand on the medical care system for the care of Kobe patients. So we are not Geared up as a society for the with the surge capacity to handle the number of potential Kovic patients that we would get if we didn't do anything so the kinds of things we're doing now are to keep the numbers below the surge capacity the limited very limited searched Bassetti that we have and again. This is not just a national issue. We can't just count up the number of national beds. We have to look at this regionally. The number of cases in New York City with a number of ICU beds in New York City and have facility to move those cases. If in fact those numbers don't match up Steve Goodman is associate dean at Stanford Medical School. Justin less ler is a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Where continuing with them. After this break. Awesome the reckoner by radiohead. This is democracy. Now I mean goodman the British government says up to ten thousand people may now be infected by the corona virus on Thursday British Prime Minister. Boris Johnson called on people who are sick to self quarantine..

China Italy United States Dr Steve Goodman Justin Icu Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Stanford Medical School Boris Johnson New York City NBA Bassetti Flu Cova NCAA South Korea associate dean Prime Minister
"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

Democracy Now! Audio

10:26 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

"System does not is not really geared to what we need right now. What you are asking for that is a failing and it is a failing. Let's admit it. The fact is the way the system was set up. Is that the public health component. That doctor that doctor Redfield was talking about was a system where you put it out there in the public and a physician asks for it and you get the idea of anybody getting it easily. The way people in other countries are doing it. We're not set up for that. Do I think we should be yes? But we're not okay. That's really disturbing. And I appreciate the information. Dr Found she. Statement appeared to directly refute a claim president trump made just last week. Anybody that needs a desk. It's a test we there there they have the. Does anybody WANNA test gets test. That's what president trump said. This comes the trump administration's corona virus task forces gun two days with no press briefings and the World Health Organization has officially classified the Corona virus outbreak as a pandemic for the rest of the hour. We're joined by two guests and Baltimore. Justin Leslie is with us. He's associate professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Senior author and new study that suggests the median incubation period for the new corona viruses about five days and joining us from Stanford University. Which is now close to students on campus. It's got online learning. Dr Steven Goodman is with US associate dean at Stanford Medical School where he's also a professor of epidemiology and Population Health and medicine. Oh and he's also my brother. He joins us from Stanford University. Yes they are continuing light Johns Hopkins to hold their classes online over concerns about Cova. Nineteen we welcome you both to democracy. Now Steve Let's begin with you. I consider you my lifeline on issues like this and that's why we called you. Why don't we start? By this issue of testing it is absolutely astounding that in countries like north like in countries like South Korea where we hear the test or something like twenty thousand a day in this country. It is believed that there have only been eleven thousand tests over the entire period of this outbreak. How is this possible? What happened? Well I don't know all the details of what happened. But it is clear that they were decisions that were made centrally about what test to use and restrictions on who could do the test that has been changed and finally other laboratories including one at Stanford have finally been authorized to Develop and now deliver their own tests so the original decisions to use a US specific test not the one That was suggested by the. Who which has been used in many many other countries in retrospect obviously was a big mistake and we had trouble manufacturing and distributing a valid test centralized at the CDs. Now this is a critical issue. Right I mean there was a test available. It was the World Health Organization tests the one that countries all over the world are using now but the CDC made a decision not to accept that test. They made their own passed. Sent it out and it was faulty. That's right now. We're having to depend on the many labs around the country and commercial laboratories to develop and offer this test. We are really just gearing up now for that The Stanford test which is the one that's being used regionally also for a variety of medical institutions. I think they This week they were offering between two and three hundred a day. They say that next week they'll be up to about a thousand a day. That obviously is not remotely enough to track the where the epidemic is going But that's what we have right now. Regionally nationally I don't know what the capacity is but as Dr Fao. She said we are way way behind. Well let's bring Professor Justin Wrestler into this conversation from Hopkins from Johns Hopkins. Let's talk about. Why testing is so important. Why is it so important that we know in this country Where the disease is where the outbreak is. Why is it important to know the number I mean this is our ability to have situational awareness about what's going on with the virus where it is how to react. So the most extreme measures that we take to combat the virus essentially potentially closing whole cities down like they did in China Italy. We don't WanNa do those places where there isn't a lot of you know there isn't actually a lot of disease and we don't want to wait till the hospitals are filling up with dead people to do those because then it's too late so we want to react in time and that has to that means we need testing and that means we need to be testing with the right intention. I think there is still some inertia towards trying to test people who've traveled etc with the idea that we're going to go around those people and contain and Tristar contacts and try to find those chains of transmission But I think we maybe need to rethink that with the idea that we really want is situational awareness about what's going on in the community and what's our silent out you know. What silent outbreaks might be happening so that we can respond? Accordingly in our public health measures in terms of people isolating themselves. Dr Steve Goodman if you can talk about what it means not to have a test so you don't know even if you've been exposed to someone who has tested positive and also. Isn't that true that these tests at this point in most cases take days to get results although there are some that are now being developed that simply take hours but what it means for people protecting the community well as Justin said people don't actually know what the threat is. They don't know how many people around them have the disease and they don't know Obviously whether they themselves have the disease if if they have been exposed so it's very very difficult for either public health authorities to calibrate the response properly is Justin Just described or individuals to calibrate their own actions. And and I also want to point out that when we talk about self-isolation or anything that an individual can do the paradigm really has to be not. Just what can I do to protect myself? But what can we each do to protect each other and the act of self isolation is not just individual protection is protecting everybody. You're in contact with but to know how extreme the behavior should be whether you should not go to a park whether you should not go to. The store is very much driven by. Your awareness is just describe it. Situational awareness of how many cases there are often silent cases in your own community in your own neighborhood going to your own stores so this decision. That's personal decision has social and health consequences but without testing. We're flying blind. I WANNA go to the issue of Corona virus. And if you could talk about the different steve or what? The language is corona virus. Cova nine thousand nine hundred for people to understand. Explain that the lexicon there of this disease and also how it compares to the flu. President trump has repeatedly tried to say that the flu kills tens of thousands of people. He said who knew the flu killed. It actually turns out that his grandfather. Friedrich trump died of the flu in this country at a young age but he tried to use it to show you know. Corona virus doesn't even compare so talk about both the language we use and what it means in comparison with the flow. Well Cova nineteen is the name of the disease not the virus specifically And what we're most concerned about is obviously The spread of the disease. Let me talk about The flu and the flu is a big killer and it doesn't affect many people. I think we have roughly in the range of fifteen to twenty million in this season alone in the United States with roughly one in two thousand death rates so in the in the range of fifteen to twenty thousand deaths from the flu so a flu is very very serious. But that represents roughly five to seven percent of the population and the We have and the reason it doesn't represent more is because both we have flu shots and we have years decades of of of of sort of cross reactive immunity built up over people who've been exposed to different Virus strains the difference in this with this virus is to first of all no one is immune so in theory. A hundred percent of the population is susceptible to this virus or very close to it. the second part is the the fatality rate Either for people who present to the medical care system sick.

flu Friedrich trump Stanford University president Johns Hopkins World Health Organization Steve Let Professor Justin Wrestler Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Cova US doctor Redfield Dr Steve Goodman Dr Steven Goodman Population Health and medicine Justin Leslie South Korea Dr
"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

Democracy Now! Audio

11:12 min | 5 months ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on Democracy Now! Audio

"From New York. This is democracy now anybody that needs a desk. It's a test. They have to tell anybody that needs cast gets a test says the president of the United States. That's simply untrue. There have been just eleven thousand tests in the United States so far since the corona virus outbreak began. Compare this to nearly twenty thousand tests for Corona virus every day in South Korea alone the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease says the. Us is failing when it comes to testing for the virus. The idea of anybody getting it easily the way people in other country doing we're not set up for that. I think you should be yes. But we're not today. We look at how the trump administration has failed to account for what it'd be thousands of corona virus infections because of ongoing problems with access to testing. We'll speak with professor. Justin Leslie of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Senior author of a new study that suggests the median incubation period for the new corona virus is about five days and epidemiologist. Dr Steve Goodman at Stanford Medical School Associate Dean of the School. Both are holding classes online for the rest of the porter over concerns about the outbreak. And yes Dr. Goodman is my brother all that and more coming up. Welcome to democracy now democracy now dot. Org the Warren Peace Report. I'm Amy Goodman. The Corona virus pandemic is continuing to spread across the globe. According to the World Health Organization Corona virus has now infected over one hundred thirty five thousand people and killed nearly five thousand. Kenya and Ghana have confirmed their first corona virus cases. India's reported its first corona virus death. The death toll in Italy has surpassed one thousand while the country's medical system struggles to treat the sick. Meanwhile satellite photographs have been published online showing what appeared to be mass graves in Iran. Where Corona virus victims have been buried? The official death toll in Iran is around four hundred twenty nine but many fear. The actual number is far higher France Ireland Austria Belgium. Turkey and Norway have all begun taking steps to close schools to stop the spread of the virus here in the United States. The number of reported corona virus in factions jumped by nearly four hundred Thursday to about one thousand six hundred fifty but the actual number is believed to be higher congresses. In House. Doctor has privately told Capitol Hill staffers that he expects seventy to one hundred fifty million people in the United States will contract the virus. Six states have announced plans to close all public schools. Oregon Ohio Michigan Maryland Kentucky and New Mexico schools in Houston Texas near Seattle are also closing. Almost five million. Children are being impacted by the closings own major sporting events in the United States have been halted the NCWA has cancelled for the first time. Ever the men and Women's College Basketball tournaments known this March madness Utah Jazz player Rudy. Gobert has apologized after testing apologised after testing positive for corona virus. Just days after. He jokingly touched reporters microphones and phones while leaving a news conference Monday go bare wrote quote. At the time I had no idea I was even infected. I was careless and make no excuse. I hope my story serves as a warning and causes everyone to take this seriously unquote Disney has shuttered all of its theme parks around the world including Disneyworld and Florida. New York state has banned public gatherings of more than five hundred people including all Broadway shows on Thursday New York City mayor. Bill de Blasio declared a state of emergency as the number of confirmed cases in New York jumped from forty two to ninety five in a single day but the last twenty four hours have been very very sober literally yesterday morning. Feels like a long time ago We got a lot information. The course of the day yesterday a lot changed and then last night it does seem like the world turned upside down in the course of just a few hours on Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted ten percent Thursday in its biggest drop since one thousand nine hundred eighty seven airlines and cruise companies have been particularly hard. Hit major international cruise lines including Princess cruises and Viking suspended operations. President Trump's ban Europeans flying into the United States from twenty six European countries goes into effect midnight tonight. The stock market losses came despite the Federal Reserve injecting about one point five trillion dollars into the financial system in an effort to prop up. The market's former Labor secretary. Robert Reich tweeted total student. Loan debt one point seven trillion total cost of the Fed's short-term bank funding one point five trillion America has socialism for the rich harsh capitalism for everyone else Reverend William Barber of the poor people's campaign tweeted overnight. They found one point five trillion dollars for Wall Street but they can't find money to provide healthcare and living wages for one hundred forty million poor and low wealth people in America the trump administration's facing widespread criticism for its handling of the corona virus outbreak on Thursday. Dr Anthony Fauci. The Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases said the. Us is failing when it comes to testing for the virus. The system does not is not really geared to what we need right now. What you are asking for that is a failing and it is a failing very. Let's admit the idea of anybody getting it easily. The way people in other countries are doing it. We're not set up for that. Do I think we should be yes? But we're not the BBC reports nearly twenty thousand. People are being tested for Corona virus every day in South Korea. Far More than the eleven thousand tests done in the United States since the outbreak began months ago on Capitol Hill House Speaker. Nancy Pelosi said she's close to reaching a deal with the White House on a corona virus aid package that includes funding for temporary paid sick leave and free virus testing on Thursday democratic congresswoman. Katie Porter of California grilled Centers for Disease Control Director Robert Redfield on the affordability of Corona virus. Testing Dr Redfield. Do you want to know who has the colonel virus? In who doesn't yes not just rich people but everybody might have the virus. All of America will you commit to the CDC right now using that existing authority to pay for diagnostic testing free to every American regardless of insurance. Well I can say that we're going to do everything to make sure everybody can get the time Dr Redfield. You have the existing authority. Will you commit right now to using the authority that you have vested in you under law that provides a public health emergency for testing treatment exam isolation out cost? Yes or no what? I'm going to say I'm going to review in detail with no in more news. On the corona virus. The press secretary of Brazilian President Sharable Sonata has tested positive for cove in nineteen. The official was photographed last week standing shoulder to shoulder with president trump and just a few feet from vice president. Mike Pence during both Sinatra's recent trip tomorrow Lago and Florida the official is also seen standing just behind trump and video taken at the meeting at trump's mar a lago resort South Carolina. Senator Lindsey Graham. Who was at the Mar? A LAGO meeting says he will self quarantine while awaiting the results of corona virus test. So we'll Florida senator. Rick Scott who met separately with Bolsonaro and the eight on Monday the White House however said President. Trump does not plan to get tested and he has repeatedly said this. Meanwhile Australia's Home Minister. Peter Dutton has tested positive for corona virus. Last week he met with President Trump's daughter Ivanka trump and attorney general William bar in Canada. Sophie Gregoire Trudeau the wife of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau tested positive for Kovic nineteen Thursday. She reported mild flu like symptoms after a trip to the UK. Prime Minister Trudeau. Says he does not have symptoms but will work for my solution for fourteen days in the Philippines president. Rodrigo duterte ordered a lockdown of Metropolitan Manila home to thirteen million people to charities. Order cuts off land domestic air and sea travel to and from Metro. Manila and imposes bans. On mass. Gatherings schools have been ordered shut for month and community. Quarantining is in effect local officials WHO DEFIED GOVERNMENT ORDERS FACE. Jail time was tested for corona virus after possible exposure. Meanwhile six of his Cabinet Ministers Sixteen lawmakers and the Philippines Central Bank governor have all gone into self quarantine as the corona virus continues to spread in the United States. Immigration advocates are afraid of a deadly outbreak inside immigration jails Silky Shah Executive Director of detention. Watch network said in a statement. Quote lives are already at risk and detention and with the spread of Corona virus? People are sitting ducks in a system. Notorious for its fatally flawed medical care unquote. They're also mounting concerns.

United States President Trump president New York National Institute of Allergy South Korea School Robert Redfield Florida Dr Steve Goodman America Amy Goodman official Iran Director Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School Dr Anthony Fauci White House Manila
"dr steve goodman" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

07:00 min | 1 year ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on KQED Radio

"California courts. Science reporter Molly Peterson joins me. And Molly the juries have to decide about round up, even when the science might not be ready to. Yeah. It's a long long long standing tension because a court case has this define length, and you have to find an answer and scientific research continues on and on. And you don't always know when you're gonna find a clear answer. So in these cases, what do the people who save round up 'cause they're cancer have to prove exactly they have to prove that the key ingredient roundup glyphosate causes cancer. And then specifically that it actually caused the individual person's cancer, and that's hard. What does the science actually show lab? Studies show that glyphosate sometimes causes cancer in mice and rats that was enough for an arm of the World Health Organization to decide it probably causes cancer in people. But went comes to people research hasn't found a statistically significant connection between cancer and glycemic either. Because there isn't one or. People are exposed to a lot of carcinogens. And generally, it's hard to tease out the effects of just one thing. So who decides what science a jury hears well judges due at least in the federal cases, the ones everyone in the country are watching they have to follow a rule about scientific evidence. And the interpretation of that rule comes from a case called dough. Bear versus Merrill. Dow pharmaceuticals in that case people suspected that a drug called Ben dictum, which women took for morning sickness and that really nineties caused birth defects. So that case established the judge as the gatekeeper now that we have the roundup cases. How have the judge has been handling this? Well, they've all been doing it a little bit differently. But in the first case judge Vince Chabra held science week where he heard from all of the experts judge tabby thought science, connecting people to life to cancer was pretty sparse. He called those studies loosey goosey and were they well, that's the thing. To the judge. These studies might have seen that way because they didn't come out with a clear. Yes, or no. But I talked to Dr Steve Goodman about this. He's a clinical research expert at Stanford University. He says the question of whether round up causes cancer is really emerging area. What's happening here is that were exploring claim that even very very very experienced scientists looking at all day that have reasonable Steve's about and disagreements about and and any science will look loosey goosey. If you look at it right at the limits of what he can decide empirically. So does this mean a jury could make a decision following the law, and then later it turns out to be scientifically wrong. Yeah. Absolutely. That case about Ben decked in the jury decided that drug did cause birth defects and the drug was taken off the market, and then later scientific research showed that actually bend. Didn't cause birth defects. And today it's back on the market. So is it bad? If a jury makes that kind of a mistake. Well, it's only a mistake. If you think that illegal verdict is a verdict on the science juries may conclude that something causes cancer at a time when scientists still figuring out the answer with science and with the law. The reason we care about any of these outcomes. That's because we want to know what hazards people might run into and how to keep people safe from them. So with that morning sickness drug. It was taken off the market until we knew it was safe. Is that a mistake? Yeah. Okay. So yeah. This exactly right here. That's the core of the problem. You know, Dr Steve Goodman from Stanford says essentially that there are different goals in resolving a legal dispute and answering scientific questions the goal of most trials is not true. The goal is to win. So right there. There's a tension. Wow. I get this. I be like I understand how it works in a courtroom. But I don't know if I should be reassured by this, Molly. Yeah. I mean, things that are complicated aren't usually reassuring. But at least we have some understanding Molly Peterson you are a K Q E D science reporter with a law degree, and I'm really glad you're here. Thanks, brian. We've been talking a lot about Monsanto and round up on K Q E D. But we've also talked a lot about kids and bay curious team recently got a question from a listener who wanted to know where do the kids live in the bay area cake. Data journalist Lisa pick off white dove into the data to answer this question. Haley good morning. So San Francisco is known for having few kids. So where do kids and their parents live in the bay area? Well, like in the rest of the country kids, their parents tend to live in single family homes, and those single family homes tend to be in the suburbs. So the most kids in the bay area live in Santa Clara county, and that has a very easy to reason why which is the most people in the bay area and Santa Clara county. However, when we look at the percentage of age ranges to kids, we see the largest percentage of kids in contra Costa county, and that numbers also grow. Going in Solano. And this this really because you can find cheaper single family home in those places. That's what demographers who have spoken with have said they've said that, you know, people are still looking for larger places to live when they have a family, and that's where they're landing right now. So this seems like a normal trend. Young people live in the city, then they moved to the suburbs win. They have kids is this something we think will continue this way. This is a really interesting question because we're not sure I've talked to several demographers and city planners and they're concerned about some upcoming trends, which is basically that millennials are having kids later in life. They're having fewer kids, and they are not buying as many homes as people used to. So when city planners are looking twenty years in the future. They're not sure if this trend will entirely continue, maybe we'll see more people and multi dwelling homes, and it also is hitting up a lot of millennials especially wanna live closer to where. They work. I don't know whether millennials will be able to make that work. So we'll have to see how this plays out K Q E D, data journalist, Lisa pickoff, white, and you have a map online about this. Yes. You can go to bake dot org. And see how your local neighborhood stocks up to others and terms of how many kids live there and what proportion thank you. Thank you. You're listening to morning edition on Brian watt will be back with more local news. And if you minutes right now, let's see if there's still problems with Bard and Joe McConnell of no problems with me. But there are problems with part continuing major delays.

cancer Dr Steve Goodman Molly Peterson glyphosate reporter Stanford University Brian watt Lisa pickoff California Dow pharmaceuticals Monsanto Santa Clara county Vince Chabra Merrill San Francisco Ben World Health Organization Costa county Haley
"dr steve goodman" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

07:18 min | 1 year ago

"dr steve goodman" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Morning edition on easy. I'm Brian watt. When science and the law meet in the courtroom does the jury find the truth to juries in cali-. You have found that the weed killer roundup, and it's maker Monsanto are responsible for causing someone's cancer. And at least two hundred fifty more cases are pending in California court Kate you science reporter Molly Peterson joins me. And Molly the juries have to decide about round up, even when the science might not be ready to. Yeah. It's a long long long standing tension because a court case has this define length, and you have to find an answer and scientific research continues on and on. And you don't always know when you're gonna find a clear answer. So in these cases, what do the people who save round up 'cause they're cancer half to prove exactly they have to prove that the key ingredient roundup is glyphosate causes cancer. And then specifically that it actually caused the individual person's cancer, and that's hard. What does the science actually show lab? Studies show that glyphosate sometimes causes cancer in mice and rats that was enough for an arm of the World Health Organization to decide it probably causes cancer in people. But went comes to people research hasn't found a statistically significant connection between cancer glycemic either because there isn't one or because people are exposed to a lot of carcinogens. And generally, it's hard to tease out the effects of just one thing. So who decides what science a jury hears well judges due at least in the federal cases, the ones everyone in the country are watching they have to follow a rule about scientific evidence. And the interpretation of that rule comes from a case called bear versus Merrill. Dow pharmaceuticals in that case people suspected that a drug called Ben dictum, which women took for morning sickness and that really nineties caused birth defects. So that case established the judge as the gatekeeper now that we have the roundup. Cases. How have the judge has been handling this? Well, they've all been doing it a little bit differently. But in the first case judge Vince Chabra held science week where he heard from all of the experts judge Chevy. I thought science connecting people to life assay to cancer was pretty sparse. He called those studies loosey goosey and were they well, that's the thing to the judge. These studies might have seen that way because they didn't come out with a clear. Yes, or no. But I talked to Dr Steve Goodman about this. He's a clinical research expert at Stanford University. He says the question of whether roundup causes cancer is really an emerging area. What's happening here is that we're exploring claim that even very very very experienced scientists looking at all the data have reasonable disputes about and disagreements about and and any science will look loosey goosey. If you look at it right at the limits of what he can decide empirically. So does this mean a jury could make a decision following the law, and then later it turns out to be scientifically wrong. Yeah. Absolutely. That case about Ben decked in the jury decided that drug did cause birth defects and the drug was taken off the market, and then later scientific research showed that actually didn't cause birth defects. And today it's back on the market. So is it bad? If a jury makes that kind of mistake. Well, it's only a mistake. If you think that illegal verdict is a verdict on the science juries may conclude that something causes cancer at a time when scientists still figuring out the answer with science and with the law. The reason we care about any of these outcomes. That's because we want to know what hazards people might run into and how to keep people safe from them. So with that morning sickness drug. It was taken off the market until we knew it was safe. Is that a mistake? Yeah. Okay. So yeah. This exactly right here. That's the core of the problem. You know, Dr Steve Goodman from Stanford says essentially that there are different goals in resolving a legal dispute and answering scientific questions the goal of most trials is not true. The goal is to win. So right there. There's a tension. Wow. I get this. I feel like I understand how it works in a courtroom. But I don't know if I should be reassured by this, Molly. Yeah. I mean, things that are complicated aren't usually reassuring. But at least we have some understanding Molly Peterson you are a K Q E D science reporter with a law degree, and I'm really glad you're here. Thanks, brian. We've been talking a lot about Monsanto and round up on K Q E D. But we've also talked a lot about kids and these bay curious team recently got a question from a listener who wanted to know where do the kids live in the bay area cake. Data journalist Lisa pick off white dove into the data to answer this question. Haley good morning. So San Francisco is known for having few kids. So where do kids and their parents live in the bay area? Well, like in the rest of the country kids, their parents tend to live in single family homes, and those single family homes tend to be in the suburbs. So the most kids in the bay area live in Santa Clara county, and that has a very easy reason why which is the most people in the bay area and Santa Clara county. However, when we look at the percentage of age ranges to kids, we see the largest percentage of kids in contra Costa county, and that numbers also grow. Growing in Solano in this this really because you can find cheaper single family home in those places. That's what demographers who have spoken with have said they've said that, you know, people are still looking for larger places to live whenever family, and that's where they're landing right now. So this seems like a normal trend. Young people live in the city, then they moved to the suburbs win. They have kids is this something we think will continue this way. This is a really interesting question because we're not sure I've talked to several demographers and city planners and they're concerned about some upcoming trends, which is basically that millennials are having kids later in life. They're having fewer kids, and they are not buying as many homes as people used to. So when city planners are looking twenty years in the future. They're not sure if this trend will entirely continue, maybe we'll see more people and multi dwelling homes, and it also is hitting that a lot of millennials especially wanna live closer to where. Are they work? I don't know whether millennials will be able to make that work. So we'll have to see how this plays out K QB, data journalist, Lisa pickoff, white, and you have a map online about this. Yes. You can go to bake curious dot org and see how your local neighborhood stocks up to others and terms of how many kids live there and what proportion thank you. Thank you. You're listening to morning edition on Brian watt will be back with more local news in a bit. But let's go to the roads. Now at Joe McConnell. Overall, not terrible. But we do have our problems and the crash.

cancer Brian watt Molly Peterson Monsanto Dr Steve Goodman Stanford University reporter Lisa pickoff cali glyphosate California Joe McConnell Dow pharmaceuticals Kate Chevy Santa Clara county Vince Chabra Merrill San Francisco Ben