20 Episode results for "Dr Horton"
Special Episode: Ask Dr. Horton
"Welcome to this special episode of the world and everything in it. We're calling it. Ask Dr. Horton we ask you for your questions about the corona virus pandemic and you delivered via email social media and our listener feedback line. You've sent in your questions which we much appreciate and now world's medical correspondent. Dr Charles Horton is here to answer them. Hi Dr Horton Hi. Mary will regular listeners. To the program will recognize your name and voice but they may not know that much about you. So tell us where you're from and what life is like for you right now. Sure I live outside Pittsburgh with my lovely wife. Phoebe who retired from being a general surgeon to become a fulltime to our three children. Maybe number four in fact is due on Mothers Day. How wonderful congratulations? Well with the baby on the way Maybe that's a good time for my first question. Are you worried about having corona baby as some people are calling them actually? I'm more worried about the GROWNUPS in the family. Simply because the virus seems a lot more likely to do us harm for some reason which we don't really understand yet children don't seem to get it nearly as badly. I've also heard people joking about corona babies being a coming baby boom. We might see a few months down the road after everyone's off work all these months reconnect. That's always a good thing. That's a good thing. Well let's turn now to questions from listeners and we'll start with ANA poelman. She gets to the heart of why we wanted to. Have you join us for this special program? Let's listen for someone like me. Not The medical field is confusing and disconcerting to hear contradictory medical opinions on the current crisis. I've heard everything from that. There's no proof that a virus is actually the cause high dose vitamin C. Cure it to vaccines are one and only answer. Can you give some perspective for us? Average people out there with no medical knowledge. Hey Don't feel bad. I've heard all sorts of silly ideas from within the medical field. Here's a summary. The Corona virus is a virus. It's most closely related to SARS. It's more distantly related to actually some viruses cause colds high dose vitamin C won't cure it but normal dose vitamin D. Like the stuff and milk may help your immunity. I do want to say an normal dose again for most people. That's in the six hundred to one thousand international unit. Iu per day range. We don't need a huge dose vaccine. Certainly are the ultimate answer for returning to normal life but in the short term there are things we can do to reduce transmission protect ourselves and especially to protect the most vulnerable the elderly those who have weakened immune systems those who are just chronically in poor health on a personal note. I really appreciate the humility in that question. I've heard some people really really blast the shutdowns and say this is so political but when you see events like the clusters of deaths in nursing homes in different areas. I think that really underscores Weist act cautiously. We came really close to the New York City hospitals going from just way beyond what they were meant to be able to handle to just collapsing. And that's shutting down the city very aggressively. I I hate to think what it would have looked like without those steps. Yeah that is a sobering. Thought don't WanNA think about it. Laura Bell wrote in to ask something that I think. A lot of people wondered about at least in the beginning. Why is the response to this? Pandemic so drastically different from the response to say H One n one ten years ago. The short answer is that this virus plays a lot rougher than h one n one had in the end when they tallied all up. H One n one killed about eighteen thousand people. That's a lot but corona has killed as of last night's. Who Situation Report one hundred sixty two thousand? Those are the ones that we know. Thousands more have died without testing. And there's that a symptomatic transmission. That's the other new thing. About Corona virus. H One one was flu. People who had it looked like people who had the flu here. People can look healthy but still transmitting it. And that makes it hard to control the virus with the more typical measures so it's that combination of it being a bad `bug and being hard to control that's leading to the responses. You're seeing so you said over. One hundred sixty thousand people have died and that's of course a moving number so That makes sense about the bad bug and the hard to control aspects are next batch of questions are all related to following those stay at home orders Laura Lives in Charlotte North Carolina and. She recorded her question. Let's listen as Christian. How do I love neighbors? By providing meals or heartwarming gifts such as cookies or a homemade mask in a way that safe what precautions must stay take which ones are wise to take? And which ones are unnecessary ineffective. How do I communicate the precautions? I've taken without showing up on their front porch and a full hazmat suit. It's a great question. I do. Love the idea of Christians being salt and light especially at a time like this now first and foremost the common sense thing. If you're at all symptomatic if you're wondering whether you might have it might be better to encourage your neighbors with a phone call but assuming that nobody's symptomatic. Wash your hands. Well we don't know how long the virus survives on surfaces but cleanliness couldn't hurt as for communicating the precautions. You can always just write them down. We actually got one package that was handled that way and I was very touched to see all the precautions that the lady had lovingly spelled out on the outside of a nice well. Here's another question related to food. Katie from Massachusetts wants to know If getting takeout from a restaurant increases the chance of getting the virus and if so are there ways to reduce that chance or is it best to avoid outside food altogether. What do you think Dr Horton? It does depend a little on what your choices are. If one of your choices happens to be knocking on the contents of your large pinch at home. It's hard to argue with that being the lowest risk thing to do now for most people that's not an option and that brings brings up the question of is at higher risk to eat takeout then to go to the supermarket and wonder if the other people walking through the aisles. Could be contagious. That's a lot harder question to answer. You're dealing with being around people either way you're dealing with packaging either way. One could argue that. You're breathing more air that other people have exhaled in the supermarket But some rules of thumb for either situation number one pay by credit cards are not handing cash change back and forth with the restaurant especially if you can pay by phone So you're not even doing if you can have. The food brought out to the car. Instead of walking into the building and some grocery stores also allowed US I know Walmart grocery brings the brings food out and I think a lot of their competitors due to I've been surprised at how friendly businesses are to this. I would have thought it would seem like a big imposition to them but when I've gone out for a few things the business owners really were accommodating. I add apologized to one thing. I'm sorry I'm trying not to go into stores. And he said let's find customers can't come right. I've had the same experience where I live in. Missouri Dr Horton. You mentioned packaging. Is there a way to decrease contamination from that? There is if you want to. If you WANNA play it extra safe You can do is open the packaging so that you won't have to touch it again to eat the food then wash your hands and then eat it. The reason is if putting the food into the package or delivering it contaminated the package. That will protect you. Make sense well. Jean Mic Christian emailed us to ask if two people in two different households are self quarantine for two weeks with no symptoms. Can they get together inside one of their houses and then related to that Gene wants to know if she can safely care for her toddler grandchild while her daughter and son-in-law work from home they're all self quarantining. What do you think about that if they've already been quarantined for two weeks without symptoms the chances of either of them being sex should be extremely low? Now we're assuming a few things here that nobody's cheating if you will or being mostly quarantined That sort of thing now. She's asking whether people who are still in the process of self quarantine can get together. That's Murkier area. Because then you're kind of stepping outside of quarantine And that's especially true when folks are then getting together with more people with their families but assuming that that's not what we're talking about here. There's another way to reduce risk which is just to wait for a nice day and get together outside right common sense another listener. Megan road into ask a similar question. She has a three week old baby. Congratulations Megan and she wonders. If it's safe to get together with other family members like grandparents who have been staying at home that have gone out for things like grocery shopping. Now that's going to be. One of those edgy questions again isn't it? It is it comes to a question of how you feel about risk what. I'm talking about that sort of thing with my patients. I sometimes compare it to how people would order a steak. If they're in a restaurant one person says I want to know that every last German this is dead. I want it cooked. Well done another one says I want it rare and the pleasure of eating that rare steak is worth taking a chance. Who's right well? You could argue. Both of them are and they just have a different attitude toward risk realistically. If we're talking about people who took protecting themselves seriously and have been quarantining themselves for a few weeks. You're not taking a very big risk for other situations where they've been going out grocery shopping. You're probably taking at least a somewhat higher risk in the meantime what about Sky Zoom facetime. I know it's not the same but it is better than nothing while it seems like most people are following the guidelines about staying home and avoiding unnecessary contact. We do have to go out. Occasionally a listener Dera Kristof wants to know what precautions are really necessary after a trip to the grocery store for example. Should we just wash our hands when we get home or do we need to take off all their clothes and immediately put them in the Washer and Dryer and then as we take a shower for the everyday person that is complying with the state home? Orders are those types of things necessary. How contagious is this novel Corona Virus? Because I feel like there's quite a bit of fear out there and seems like the common sense thing of just washing your hands and just general sanitary practices would be sufficient. I should probably mention here. I am the family Germaphobe. I discovered a few weeks ago. That Staples Shipman of clorox wipes. I felt like a kid on Christmas when I clicked order but to take your questions in order. How contagious is it? Well it's not very hard to get again. There's that quirk that most young people who don't get badly ill coupled with that it is hey fever season so if you're young and invincible like we all once were right and you're feeling a little a little iffy you might talk yourself into thinking. Oh Yeah I bet it's the pollen and and go out anyway and now you know other people could be exposed. Handwashing has always been a very good idea. It's even more so now but just being around someone's cough or sneeze is more than enough to got corona beyond that. There isn't really enough evidence for me to say yes or no to a specific thing. My personal is if I stayed in the car I paid by phone and I just pulled up and people put things in the trunk. I just wash my hands. Well if I were actually in a store. That's a big. If I don't think I've been inside a store for quite a while now then I might actually shower better yet though again. Use a grocery pickup or delivery service and just skipped going into the store. I know I miss yes. I really miss those things to so much more than I thought I would. Okay now moving ahead. We know that increased testing capability will be vital to track and contain covert nineteen listener brand New England notes. That it's been hard for ordinary people to get tested especially in the early days of the outbreak. Is that changing? And if so Dr Houghton. What's the best way for someone to get tested now? Does it vary by city or State. It is changing. It isn't changing as quickly as it needs to both for health and for the economy now the reason that testing is so important to look under the hood for a moment is that the. Who the World Health Organization categorizes countries as one of three ways isolated cases only clusters of cases or community transmission community. Transmission means. We don't even know who brought it. Where and that's where we are right. Now we're trying to get back to clusters of cases such that health authorities can try to fight individual fires now. The specifics of that testing vary by area around here. They're a drive through centers and that is far better than going into a health facility. Or if you haven't been exposed yet you could end up being exposed by going there okay. Availability of tests also varies by by area. Very okay listener. Rich Thorn also wrote in with a question related to tracking the disease the daily figures we hear reported focus on those who are sick and those who have died. But there's a big difference between those two so why aren't the numbers of those listed as recovered higher than they are? Surely there are plenty of people who have recovered and are just past the point of being carriers. No some of this does relate to the testing situation. There's a formal definition of recovered which is a little different from how you and I normally think of it. We think I was sick. I feel better now so I'm recovered. That's the common sense definition. But there's a scientific definition where you need one positive test and then at least one negative test so if tests are scarce in your community as they still are a lot of the country and you're feeling better in the short term. You're probably not going to be tested. And thus you're not going to be listed as recovered That could be for the best statistically because people have had it may shed virus in their stool for up to four weeks. This also is the test shortage is also a problem in the interest of being able to donate plasma if you either recovered and you now test negative but you never did test positive or you tested positive and you couldn't get a re-test you're not going to be a plasma donor. Because they want both of those together antibody tests would be a great answer to that and let people donate even if they never had a positive test. But those aren't out yet I think it is far more likely that were understating. The death toll than overstating because of that testing situation many places are saying well. We didn't test so we don't know that it was corona so we're not going to say it was corona but if death rate in a given area or a given facility goes up so sharply it is a pretty safe assumption that at least the great majority of that change was related to corona virus. Okay moving along now A question about those who are seriously ill. Justin Sylvester wants to know if there's any information about the number of people who have died who were smokers or who used vaping devices before getting sick. Dr Horton is that a big factor. In how well patients are able to fight off the disease. Well let me say it right at the outset. I think everyone who smokes or vapes should quit right away. If you're having a cigarette while you're listening to this podcast please. Hit pause find the ashtray. Okay here's some good news. Surprisingly patients who have asthma and COPD may not be as hard hit as was predicted. According to one recent comment in the Lancet one theory about that as many of them use steroid inhalers and since we think that some patients do poorly because of this exaggerated immune response in the lungs. Maybe the steroids calm things down all the same. Don't smoke don't smoke got it next. We have a question that hits close to home for me Linda Burg wrote to say that her husband got sick in early February with flu like symptoms but his influenza tests came back negative. What are the chances that he actually had corona virus and related to that if he had it before can come back? Early February cases were still very rare and most of America so I would say the chances that he had corona virus depend very much on where he was where he visited. If this wasn't a place that had cases of that time or if he'd been you know did he just got back from. Wuhan for example. That is a possibility if there weren't known to be cases around there then probably not. Here's another case where that antibody test would be a big help if you've had it. Can it come back to the sixty four thousand dollar question here with most viruses? The answer is no but we are hearing of people who had a positive test than a negative one and then a positive one and actually with symptoms that went away and came back so it sounds like maybe that wasn't just a problem with tests it does sound from the limited preliminary information that's available like if you get it a second time maybe significantly less serious. That does to reason your immune system. Now has an idea what it's fighting and that is how how it classically works. If you've got something a second time you know thinking about those who had the disease and recovered raises questions about antibody treatments. And that's where blood plasma from recovered patients is used to help treat those who are sick. You mentioned that earlier that leads to another question from listener. Marcia Johnson what do you think the actual likelihood is that researchers will be able to develop a vaccine for copay nineteen? I think the chances are very good that there will eventually be a vaccine but I do want to emphasize that eventually. We see a lot of press releases from From the biotech world. That kind of dude. It's own Horn a little and say oh. We're we're practically there. And then he read between the lines and you find out there. They're on mouse trials. And they're about to start thinking about human trials that there's still a fair road in front of them and the key will be finding a vaccine. That really works in those trials and is safe. These things take time well from the beginning of the stay at home orders. We've been told. The goal is to flatten the curve. Listener Mark wikner wants to know. Does that mean we're reducing? The number of cases are we're just spreading them out over a longer period of time. I think it really depends on what we do if we look at countries that saw corona virus before we did if we got proper measures in place and if we use that time wisely as a nation I think we're actually reducing the total number. I've heard that claim that we're just delaying the inevitable. But I don't really buy that. Here's why I remember that are in are not or RS. Zero number the number of people who catch corona virus from each person who has known baseline. If we're just living like we like we had last year. That number is somewhere between two point. Two two two point seven depends who you ask so each person who had it would infect two to three other people but there's good news we can change that are zero by changing what we do now. If you picture a truly extreme case where everybody stayed completely home for a month and nobody went anywhere for any reason. Our zero would be exactly zero. Nobody could possibly catch it from anybody and corona virus would disappear from the world. Now that's not feasible. We have to do at least a little bit for example eating that sort of thing but we are bringing down drastically. Each intervention helps masks help. Handwashing helps social. Distancing helps doing all of those things helps more and everybody doing all of those things as a community helps a lot more beyond all of this. The state home orders by US time realistically. We're not going to have a vaccine before we have to go back out in the world and we're not going to have great data on whether the proposed treatments really help but what we can get that time as better testing and better we say P P personal protective equipment. Both of those would help the cause a lot and that can improve pretty quickly related to that Dr Horton. Some epidemiologists are disputing the value of flattening the curve noting that we're not really stopping the disease we're just slowing it down. They advocate for promoting herd immunity as the best way to stop the virus. And that's the approach. Sweden has taken several people wrote in to ask about that including caroline in Christian so in your view what role does herd immunity have to play here. Sweden's actions have been reported that way in America but the truth is a little more complicated. Their Foreign Minister had had this quote of no lock down and we rely very much on people taking responsibility themselves but that means something different in Scandinavia from what it means here. That's all already a pretty socially distant place to start with. If you've if you've been to Sweden Sweden is also a place where the government can make suggestions. That people will treat practically as orders. Now you can see that as a good thing or a bad thing of course but it means that when we as Americans here no lockdown we kinda here business as usual and. I don't think that that's exactly how they're doing that with. Respect to herd immunity. It's true that when enough people have had it that will make it harder and harder for the virus to spread. That's why are not tends to tail off for any given `bug as time goes on. There are just fewer and fewer targets. At the very beginning of one hundred people are in the room. Nobody's got immunity to it. You know later on fifty of them having unity than later eighty of them and so forth. I don't think we're as far down that road as some reports are hinting Their their sound like there may have been some flaws in those early studies. So I don't want us to get ahead of ourselves with it. But yes as time progresses that will play a bigger and bigger role. Well that raises questions about what life will be like here as we gradually start to reopen stores and businesses and so forth listener. Tom Design in Michigan. Wants to know this as we come out of the corona virus isolation and quarantine phase and get back to real life. I'd like to know from the good doctor. If it is still necessary to keep a six foot distance of safety between you and someone you're talking with if you both are wearing facial coverings I think the type of face covering is an important thing to discuss. If you're both were improper ones like you're three and ninety five's that might be. That might be a little different. But those are scarce. Those are very hard to get. The supplies are generally being diverted to hospitals. I love the heart behind the homemade masks. My phoebe actually made a large number of them on her sewing machine for for others. And that's what I'd wear if I didn't have three of them the effectiveness though unless you're just using it as a pre filter away to keep dirt off and on ninety five is still kind of questionable. Okay doctor. You mentioned the likelihood of a resurgence. In cases. Amenity go susannah door is also wondering about that specifically as it relates to college students headed back to campus. This coming fall. Are we likely to see them coming home again? If we get a resurgence of cases I wish I had a crystal ball. If there's a big resurgence of cases campuses probably would close back up But that brings up that. I think one lasting societal change from corona virus is going to be an increase in popularity of things like distance learning. If I were an incoming freshman I'd really be curious about that. Even aside from any Infectious questions I'd just rather live in a nice comfortable home with family than in a little dorm room So far from home right well if we're reasonably sure then. We will see secondary rounds of infection listener. Natalie Weber wants to know. How can we determine the end of the threat? Welson vaccine is not going to happen. In a short timeframe the goal again is to get back to a situation where every case can be tracked and where we can go back to quarantine anyone who might have been in contact with that case if the case has become rare enough. Then we could do that. Think of a fire department that just put out a major fire and is now standing by putting out little flare ups. That's the general idea. It's not truly the end of the threat but it's a new phase in fighting it if you think of that great churchill quote it's not the end it's not the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning. We're trying to get to the end of the beginning here. Dr Charles Horton is a practicing physician in Pennsylvania and he's world's medical correspondent. Dr Thank you for joining us today to answer these questions anytime. Hey please let us know what you thought about this special episode of the world and everything in it you can reach us via twitter or email feedback at world. Everything DOT COM if it turns out to be helpful to a lot of people that just might do it again. Thanks for listening.
Special Episode: Ask Dr. Horton 2
"Welcome to ask Dr Horton. This is our second special episode with world's medical correspondent Dr Charles Horton we asked for your corona virus questions and we will talk through those shortly. Dr Horton Welcome back. Thanks good to be back well first things first last time we talked you announced that you and your wife were expecting baby number four. Do you have any news to report? Now that it's June we do Ruhama Sufia Horton was born may seventeenth in my totally unbiased opinion. She is absolutely lovely, and Mommy is doing great. It is hilarious to see Esther three-year-old, adapting to being a big sister. Yeah, I bet well. That's such good news and congratulations to both of you well. We're going to start with a general question from Leicester twilly. What should we expect medically through the balance of twenty twenty? We've given a lot of attention to vaccines and medicines, but what I think will affect this question. Even more is the way that people, act. We've seen. Democracy is in Asia getting very good control of the situation. Japan has only had eight hundred and eighty six deaths, and they only there down under one hundred new cases per day now each death is a sorrow, and the context is important. But eight hundred and eighty six deaths in a country, one third the population of America. One of the oldest average population in the world career for example had two hundred and seventy two deaths, as of one or two days ago, and a population of fifty, one million, and almost half of those are in or near Seoul the capital. People might say that's great, but I don't. WanNa live like people in Japan and Korea are doing right now now. That's a cultural question on as much medical one, but it does affect what our numbers are going to look like some of the questions we face include. Are we going to get and use effective masks? Are we going to have use good testing? We're going to need to look at questions about contact. Tracing is a society what forms of it are acceptable and what's too intrusive. I think about that want to want to I. Don't like the idea of giving privacy I. Don't really trust the government or tech companies to have a large amount of data and never misuse it. We've seen those misuses in the past, and that's something that concerns me with us right. I think healthy skepticism is part of discernment. Can you talk about what seems like moving goal posts as far as what we're trying to achieve here? I hear about that quite a lot. Right the original goal of course was to quote unquote. Flatten the curve. We wanted to prevent the hospitals and icy us from being overwhelmed America. Did succeed at doing that, but the price tag was extremely high, because we started out with such limited testing and protective equipment that meant the virus got a real head. Start here and once it did we just had this Sophie's choice between terrible economic damage or letting the virus run rampant? and. I think it's fair to say. Where do we go from here? What? Should we make given where we are? First off, there's been some very good news since then we've learned. The virus isn't as deadly as originally feared it was. What's crucial is we've learned more about who is higher risk of doing poorly. It wasn't given that small children were at lower risk. That's not true of some other illnesses. I would have guessed and I think. A lot of people would have guessed that having respiratory problems like asthma would have been a bigger risk factor than say being diabetic. It's a respiratory bug, first and foremost, and yet it's the opposite. The asthmatics don't seem to do much worse than average diabetics. People with heart disease. Those do get into trouble. So, now that we're reopening, we have some choices to make society, and those are going to have a big impact on what the effects medical and economic are. America's saying as a culture. We can't stay closed any longer. The economic costs the social costs are just too high, but the big question here is. Are we going to find ways to adapt, and are we going to stay with them even when we feel tired of it? Or are we going to just say it's too much I want I. Want too much to go back to two thousand and nineteen. I think that answer is going to be the key to what the second half of the year looks like. And then how do we go about making those kinds of informed choices though? Yeah we're. Do we get the data? Though of course, I'm not a dummy. All would just fight trade, but on the other hand medical school does teach us a lot about finding and how to use quality. Sources of data usually have to pay for these journals, but in the corona virus response, the big names are actually sharing information free of charge to the general public land's Sell New England. Journal of Medicine and we are seeing. The predictions got a lot better I know. Predictions and models have gotten a bit. Bit of a bad name and I can just hear a few bruins from the audience right now, but we are working with a lot better data I like young goose site cove at Nineteen Dash Projections Dot Com. He's an Mit Grad using a machine learning system such that his system gets better and better as it gets more and more data, and just to repeat that website for those who want to do a deeper dive. It's covid nineteen. That's the number nineteen dash projections with an s dot com. that. It's broken down by state and country and has a lot more information in it. It does and. For those of you who are interested in exploring? It has a lot of options for ways you can explore what ifs in the data. Coming back to this projections for the second half of the year, his system does not currently anticipate that the second wave will be very bad at least not before September, but and this is an important, but the graph does show that his system is not very confident about that so much depends on what we as a nation do. We as Americans have taken a lot of pride and finding creative solutions in innovating our way out of problems, and some of those creative solutions might help us to regain some of this sense of normalcy that so important without taking huge risks in my own church. We're a lot more outside and that's something I hope we keep doing after corona virus. It's beautiful to worship God in the midst of his creation outside maybe a peaceful breeze wafting through. The word of God says we're to worship. Him Doesn't say we have to do it indoors now. That's right I. Love to be outside and worship the lord now this is a big topic and we will get to vaccines later on, but I wanted to ask you something that you wrote about in the latest issue of world magazine ventilators. What are we learning about ventilators? This actually goes with one of. Of the biggest head scratchers for me about corona virus. Historically, we've always moved quickly to use ventilators patients when they deteriorate beyond a certain point, because we know that the human body does not tolerate what we call Hypoxia, lack of oxygen well at all, but reports keep coming in saying the same thing, which is that corona virus patients stay conscious with numbers far worse than where we usually go with ventilator. I cannot fathom why that would be. The number seem real they I? Don't think that they're monitor error, but there's nothing about corona virus that should protect patients from low oxygen levels. It's just a mystery, but it matters because when they do end up on ventilators, they often do very poorly. Why Prime Minister. Boris Johnson refused to go on a ventilator when he was really really sick with the virus sometime ago. It sounds like he had a close shave. Though I have also read that. The medical team moved him to ICU earlier than normal out of wanting to be very cautious with the prime minister. All the same guy who fits his description over fifty. He's over his ideal body. Weight is going to be at higher risk than average. Okay now moving on several listeners and world magazine readers wrote in with a similar question about how officials are counting and reporting deaths Listener Stacey Fernandez says we've heard many people who have serious cases of covid nineteen who also have underlying health problems such as what you just mentioned about the prime minister, so if a patient has covid, nineteen and dies is the cause of death automatically listed as covid nineteen, and if so why? Different locales do so different rules, but in general the answer is yes, and that is a good policy because Kovac nineteen seems to be what finally pushed over the edge. Patients may live with diabetes or heart disease for example for decades, but we know that if someone with those conditions ends up with corona virus, he is going to be far higher risk. This is especially true for the number one risk. Risk factor, which is simply being elderly. colloquially we may use the expression died of old age, but medically speaking. We can't rate that on a death certificate. There's a chain of events the immediate cause underlying causes contributing causes so adept certificate might say cardiorespiratory failure meaning the heart stopped breathing stopped, but then what caused that? Was it say heart attack? Okay? What caused the heart attack? What were the contributing factors? The. Only real exception is sudden. Traumatic events were person really was fine until an accident happened otherwise, there's a chain of causes and along those lines one attribute of Covid nineteen that's now coming into focus is that it causes a hyper coagulated will state that means a state where the blood is too prone to clotting, so it can cause problems with the heart and the circulation, and that means that someone who had a fetal stroke or heart attack while sick with cove, nineteen may well have had it because of being sick with covid nineteen gathering information like that to help us understand. The situation is one of the main reasons that we handled certificates that way. Did Not know that. Christine whipple also wondered whether the reimbursements hospitals are getting from the federal. Government for treating cove in nineteen patients influences how they classify deaths. Hospitals have a financial incentive to say. Someone died of Covid nineteen, even if other health issues might have played a role in it. The short answer is no or at least not specifically for Covid nineteen. The system does reward hospitals for treating sicker patients. There's more work and it uses more supplies, and there are also penalties. If patients do worse than average, so hospitals do want to be sure they're staying on top of everything. That's wrong with a given patient. The Cares Act. The Corona Virus Act. Did also provide for a comparatively small. Additional payment for cove, one nineteen patients. On the flip side, the penalties for documenting inaccurately are pretty severe and more than that inflating the number of covid nineteen deaths would be really counterproductive financially for hospitals, because they can't go back to doing elective procedures until their areas settled down, and they're losing far more money from not doing elective procedures than they're gaining from that little boost to the Medicare rates. There is also a number called quote excess deaths that helps us to understand the situation. If we zoom out a little, it looks at the number of deaths in a given time period compares it to the number. We'd more typically have at that time of year. I'm not aware of any other major changes to public health, so I think it is reasonable to assume the great majority of the difference is due to corona virus. Hey I do want to say one other thing here, though which kind of ties in with us. As far as the numbers go, what is throwing things off? Is this phenomenon of double-counting? Some areas are doing something. That's not a statistical good idea, and that's counting each positive test as a separate case of corona virus, so if someone gets sick, has a positive antigen test. down. He's feeling better. A couple of weeks later gets another antigen test. It's still positive. Gets another antigen tests and a couple of weeks. It's negative now once an antibody test and that's positive. That could get counted as three positive tests. Obviously, he's only one person so that is throwing a monkey wrench into the statistics in some areas. Listener Margaret, Duncan wrote in to ask a question about getting together with her small group. Of Church it plans to start meeting again. Without social distancing the group also shares a weekly meal together. Now Margaret says she seems to be the only one worried about it. It's also important to note that all of the members of her small group are over sixty five, so Margaret wants to know. What is your opinion Dr Horton about groups like this starting to meet up again. I wish I knew churches. Some of this will always have to do with an individual's attitude towards risk, but a lot has to do with the area if your area has very few cases, and the local authorities feel like the situation is generally under control I. Don't think it's reckless to say okay. We're going to take a small chancer. Here in Pittsburgh where we had a lot more cases. I wouldn't recommend that yet. My church is starting to meet again, but we're taking a lot of precautions. Social distancing masks, people also not sending as loudly as the as the usually would. Maybe, that's a good thing to and here in my part of Missouri I would feel comfortable doing that, so that's the location assessment of risk onto the next question now like a lot of people listener Bryan Hughes will be going back to his office soon. Here's his question. I'm nervous about getting infected with Kobe. Through droplets in the air or more specifically by the Ajax System, my office building I'm also concerned because my wife has thirty four weeks pregnant and has a heart defect. Would you suggest that I try to continue to work at home or just wear a mask at all times and hope for the best? I'd be more worried about getting the virus from being close to someone with that, so a lot probably depends on the layout of this listeners office is one of those open layout offices that had been really popular lately. Where people are all getting together and talking, or is it what we used to think of as an office building where each employee had his or her own little office? Are He and his co workers able to keep a healthy distance from each other? Do people have and use masks? Now with his wife situation, that is a little trickier. We played it very safe when we were expecting, and my wife was otherwise in good health. Many of us in healthcare had these personal rituals. It almost made me think of the ritual washing was we read about in the Old Testament? Washed before leaving work drive home and nobody was allowed to touch me until I showered and changed into other clothes, food road to work in disposable containers, so things that I had there would not come back into the house. That sort of thing, so deaf working from home isn't a realistic for this listener. Thinking about ways he could work while protecting himself and his wife might be helpful. Creative thinking of to protect oneself well, speaking of masks listener Tim. Miller has been having what she calls robust discussions with her friends about the necessity of taking steps to prevent the virus from spreading. Let's listen. I've heard many say that since this virus is mostly mild, healthy people don't really need to take precautions. I've been discouraged by believers who call those who were masked wimps or among the deceived. As a Christian, who is a doctor? How do you encourage believers in this debate? Helped definitely seen some unhelpful commentary along those same lines. I would emphasize that masks do two things number one. They protect the wearer, but number two. They protect others. We fill the air around us with tiny droplets when we breathe out especially when we're doing things like talking loudly or singing. So we're no mask is in cowardice. It's being considerate of others whose health might be a lot more fragile. Looking at how well Asia is doing right now, I do think that one of the reasons for that. Is that wearing masks culturally? Okay? It's not such a political question. It didn't have the political baggage that it does here speaking of which it does. Break my heart to the sort of name calling this listener described. Our speech should be seasoned with Salt, and as that one old time radio preacher put it. That doesn't mean we should use salty language. Good Point Well Kim had a second question as well related to speculation about how the virus got started in the first place, and how that might change the way we deal with. When I asked a local medical professional about the thought of just getting a virus to get it over with, she said if it turns out that this virus was created as a bioweapon. Then it's possible a mechanism could be hidden in this virus like a carcinogen, and that could cause problems in the future. What are your thoughts? Well first off. I would not recommend intentionally getting I. DO think the chances of a vaccine coming along pretty good and the various social economic changes will be there whether or not one given person has antibodies beyond that we are still learning about some of the longer term effects of the virus, like a significant number of people losing their sense of smell that in itself would be enough to prevent me from getting on purpose as for the bioweapon idea. We've talked about some pretty similar questions here at home and well. I guess now. The audience knows what dinner conversation sounds like an to Dr Household. I doubt it would be a bio weapon just because it would be a pretty crummy one. There's not much for an enemy army to gain by attacking or elderly and infirm. We don't usually recruit them to be part of our armed forces. Good Point. Okay Listener Linda op wants to know whether there's any truth to the claims that wearing masks and keeping our social distance is actually harmful to our immune systems and listener Geneva. limpkey wants to know whether wearing masks is really all that helpful at preventing the virus from spreading. If there's any harm to the immune system. It would be an encouraging allergies and auto immunity. That's the idea that modern society has more of those problems, because it's so much cleaner than life was back when sewage disposal for example, dumping it in the street. It's not proven although I do think the idea makes them intuitive sense in any event. I don't think you're going to see very much of that in the timeframe. We're talking about here. Dr Houghton has things start to reopen. Some places are requiring temperature checks is the new standard screening method Listener Rosa? Edwards wants to know whether that's really helpful. Given that so much transmission can happen when carriers don't even have any symptoms exactly. Exactly temperature checks are better than nothing, but right now we are mostly on the honor system. We have questions about. Have you had any symptoms and we're really counting on individual people to be honest with us? Even if it means that they're going to be told well. Sorry, then you can't come in here not to keep banging the drum about masks, but that does have to do with why recommend them, okay. I hear that loud and clear Listener Eric Anderson wants to know whether your level of exposure to the virus determines whether you have mild or severe symptoms in other words. If you get exposed to just a few copies, will you only have mild symptoms or is it an? Of thing when it comes to exposure. Excellent question what you're describing here. It does seem to be the case for the flu. There was two thousand fifteen study where volunteers were given varying doses of flu virus under controlled circumstances, and then the researchers looked at how they did the people who got more flu virus were more likely to develop significant cases of the flu in Layman's language. It looks like the virus was able to get enough of a head start on the immune system to make the person sick. We don't know whether that's true for Corona virus and realistically we're probably not going to because. Test, involving intentionally, giving it to large numbers of people probably wouldn't fly ethically. What we do know. Is that for pretty much all viruses, the virulence that is how easy it is to catch them depends on how many copies it actually takes to get sick. That means that below that number. The virus doesn't seem likely to get started. Well now. Let's get back to this idea. Vaccines. First Listener Brad shed wants to know this. In your opinion, what do you think is a reasonable time mine for their availability? Do think they will be effective and thirdly. Do you think they will be safe? Best guess is that there's going to be limited availability. God dwelling late this year given the mind boggling amount of effort going into developing the. I do think that we're going to have effective. One's safety is a question mark because evaluating vaccines for safety takes time. We think of ASAP as as soon as possible, but in vaccines. We want them to be as safe as possible. There are steps we can safely skip like waiting in line behind other paperwork at the FDA. The FDA can just say vaccines I likewise were preparing factories before. We know whether the vaccines will work. That's going to cost a large amount of money, but it's not compromising the product safety I do. We take the time to do proper research and make sure that the vaccines are safe in humans. Though that's one step, we shouldn't skip. Okay good to know now listener. McCarron says some projections suggest that we won't return to normal life. Remember that until the vaccine is available in twenty twenty one and even then health officials warn us that might not be enough given multiple strains which might need different kinds of vaccines. What do you have to say about that? Well I certainly sympathize about being a creature of habit because I am one to. A static for some kind of silly things. From before Corona virus was one day, the zoo was giving away admission for a reason. I can't even remember now and we all just went to the zoo, not a care in the world. Now that feels a little league. Saying we flew to the moon. I really sympathize with the desire to go back whether it's going back to work to support your family or even just doing back to playing Frisbee in the park on a Saturday afternoon. With that said I do think that Cheney had an excellent take on it and the print magazine normal is going to look different, but not necessarily in negative ways. We Home School for example, and it's been very interesting to watch the whole world. Walk a mile in our shoes I. do think that will help. People understand what home schooling is like. I've also seen an article about courting couples who are starting to get to know each other by letter, writing and phone calls such that they start out with this foundation of really knowing each other. That's a change, but maybe not a bad one right. Yeah I've been witnessed to that with my own adult children that are back home, well reader Susan. Dugan is wondering about how a vaccine would work. Can you explain the difference between vaccines that prevent? Disease in vaccines that cure or slow the progress of disease? anti-viral vaccines work by preventing disease. Basically when we get sick with a virus, our immune system has to figure out what distinguishes the virus from our own cells. We call that an antigen and then start making antibodies to it. A vaccine works by showing the Antigen to the immune system and more or less teaching it. This is bad if you see this. This you need to do something about it. That's a huge simplification of a very complicated process of course, but that's the idea behind vaccines for viruses as far as vaccines to cure diseases, researchers have experimented with that idea with trying to immunize patients against things like cancer cells. That's a fascinating idea, although that sort of thing is still in the research lab. Okay next. We have a question from a listener named Meg. She serves as a missionary in Thailand. We were scheduled to go on furlough in the US from mid-may to early. January, but here we are still in Thailand. Are furloughs are filled with driving from house to house and from Church to Church. We're thinking of going later and doing those typical furlough thinks is fall. Is it silly to think that would be a reasonable thing to do considering the second way. First off, thank you for serving in the field mission were was already risky enough and the many questions surrounding corona virus only added to my respect for those of you who are doing. Thank you and thank you again. With that said this is a huge question in the mission world, one family friend missionary in Africa, or he would be, but he can't get there because the country in question isn't allowing anyone at all. Another was going to Asia, but his flight was cancelled, and he hasn't been able to find another one, so there may be no flight or return flight or two week quarantines coming here from Thailand and coming back from Thailand. I do realize that furlough is about far more than just fundraising to keep the mission on track. It's also a chance to reconnect with your family with your friends with your church with your home culture with the foods you grew up with. You will probably be required to self quarantine for two weeks after you get here from Thailand. And after that the risks are more related to the second wave here than to the situation in Thailand of course, the good news is that airline seemed to be offering a really unprecedented level flexibility often even with the cheap fares, so if you choose one. Let's refund your tickets. You could always line up your tickets now and see what the future brings. Okay now this is about we talked about being outside earlier. KRISTA I'll be has a question about sunlight's effect on the virus. There were some initial claims that sunlight would kill the virus on surfaces. Have you seen any other information about that? And then related to at what effect might more sunlight and warmer weather have on its spread? Here to we're going from what evidence we have. From other diseases, bright sunlight applied for hours on end can accomplish some reduction in viral load. There's actually a system that uses this to reduce the risk of getting sick from water in developing countries, the count afford more reliable ways of purifying water. But in general, the effects of warmer weather and late do seem to be limited the virus spread all to effectively in Italy and spreading even more effectively and sunny Brazil, but that does bring up something that sounds silly, but it's worth remembering. Someone asked me a few months ago. If I leave my luggage in the sun for a few days, kill corona virus, thing is coronavirus only lasts for maybe three days on surfaces like plastic or metal, so leave it in the sun or leave it in your car truck or put it in your closet. The important part was the three days, not specifically the sunlight. That is interesting. Another thing I didn't know Dr Charles Horton is a practicing physician in Pennsylvania, and he is world's medical correspondent. Dr Thank you for joining us today to answer this second round of questions about the novel Corona Virus, anytime stay. Hey Do, let us know what you thought of this special episode of the world and everything in it. You can email us at feedback at world and everything, DOT, com, or call us on our listener, feedback wine. That's two, zero, two, seven, zero, nine, nine, five, nine, five and special thanks goes to Lee Jones, Kristen. Flavin and Johnny Franklin for editing and Producing Today's program I Mary Record and I. Thank You for listening to this special presentation from a listener supported world radio.
Special Episode: Ask Dr. Horton 3
"Welcome to ask Dr Horton Myrna Brown, and this is our third episode with world's medical correspondent. Dr Charles Horton. In our previous episodes, we ask you to submit questions they ranged from policy issues to practical advice for keeping family safe. While this time, we will focus specifically on the medical issues related to the coronavirus pandemic. Dr Horton. Thanks for joining us today. Always glad to join you. Well, let's jump right in and start with some good news. It's related to immunity several months ago researchers discovered antibodies produced in response to covert nineteen didn't last long and that led to speculation that immunity might. Be short-lived as well. But new research has found that people infected with the virus developed t cells that will help combat future infections. Here's Maria Vancouver cold on those findings, and she's head of the world. Health organizations outbreak investigation force. There's very good data coming out for research studies which are being conducted all over the world that are looking at the immune response for people who have had a mild infection people who had asymmetric infection people who have had severe infection and we're seeing that they do develop an enemy response that most people do now. Dr. Horton, can you explain how this works? In Layman's language, the immune system basically keep notes about things fought off before it's like a microbial version of the police keeping mugshots on file. If the immune system sees those things a second time, it already knows how to fight them off and it's a faster stronger response. This is why I believe the question about whether people can get infected. A second time is somewhat route. It probably is possible but I suspect that that won't be a major problem for most people. That analogy you shared is so helpful. Thank you. For that questions about immunity are directly tied to efforts to develop a vaccine. What's the latest progress on that front? Well. We're now in the phase three trials for seven different vaccine candidates plus one for repurposing the BBC g vaccine that was used against tuburculosis. Another phase three trial is supposed to start September bringing the total to nine. That's great news because that's the last phase before they go to market the FDA for its part appears to be doing all. It can to review the data as it's coming out rather than saying start looking at anything until everything is complete. I'm really encouraged by the progress and by the balance that seems to exist between clearing away unnecessary hurdles and still respecting safety. Russia for example, approved a vaccine after phase one trials that is a huge gamble both in terms of safety and in terms of whether, it would help I like what I'm seeing here a lot more. Well speaking of vaccines, health officials are encouraging people this year more than ever to get a flu shot. Here's Dr Robert Redfield from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. You know we're not defenseless against this Kobe virus, we have powerful weapon. It's It's really simple mask that couple of smart social, distancing hand washing and being smart about crowds. And now coupled with getting the flu vaccine. So what is the connection between the flu shot and covert nineteen? The first and biggest connection is that it is possible to get both viruses at once we've seen this in case reports from multiple countries where a few critically ill patients ended up proving to have both viruses needless to say that is something you don't want to happen. The second connection is that severe flu cases will themselves need hospital beds, ICU beds, and depending on how cases go in the next several months for each virus that could be a problem. I am more optimistic than most about how flu season is going to go because the precautions that help protect against covid nineteen also help protect against getting the flu. But with that said, I'm planning to flu shot. Well one about testing have we seen any advancements in the way we test for Kobe nineteen especially when it comes to to speed and accuracy. In terms of technology. Yes. We now have faster tests or at least we have the ability to make faster tests in terms of quantity. The news is not quite as good. Clearly, we do have enough for national leaders and for the Sports Leagues to have fast tests, but it doesn't seem like we have enough for everyone yet. Regarding Colleges University of Arizona just demonstrated something. That's really neat. Little Gross. Water testing to detect on campus cases as early as possible they had zero symptomatic cases, but they were testing the wastewater from each dorm and found that one of them had elevated levels of corona virus in the wastewater. So they tested everyone in that one dorm found two students who were domestic but infected and quarantined those two students. Now presumably, they'd have also identified those two cases if they just tested everybody but doing. It this way save thousands of tests You're right a little gross but clever it seems like we're going to need more testing as we move into the fall season when covert like illnesses are most prevalent more people are GonNa want to confirm that they don't have covert nineteen last week California Governor Gavin Newsom announced plans to address that need through a partnership with a private lab California is committing to a diagnostic testing partnership. That, will provide an additional. One hundred and fifty thousand tests per day. But what is significant in this partnership is we are demanding test results back within twenty four hours, the latest forty eight hours, and we have provisions in the contract to guarantee that turnaround time you get governor some clearly feels like his state needs more testing capacity but what about the rest of the country do we have enough testing capacity or is that going to be a problem? It's actually a little more complicated than that because what we need isn't just tests but tests litter performed quickly. Again, the national leaders and the Sports Leagues do have access to this, and we saw the value of that when Ohio's governor dewine didn't meet with the president. In early August because he'd tested positive confirmatory testing which took longer leader did come back negative but that was a great example of how testing needs to be quick because the point is to help us make decisions here. The specific question was, is it safe? For Governor Dewine to be around the president and the answer was doesn't look that way right now. Now, the flip side was illustrated in a column recently, where someone traveled to a state that required a test in the last twenty, four hours not results just to test. She had a test went on the trip medic with people traveled back and still didn't have the results results came something like two weeks after the test. So that got counted as a test, but for purposes of knowing whether to quarantine. To work whether to get together with people all of that it isn't helpful employers, colleges, schools, and so forth want to know before a person puts others at risk not to no looking back. Yes. Certainly Mall states are seeing a decrease in the overall number of cases that's according to statistics put out by Johns Hopkins University. What do we know about the causes of the drop Dr Horton? I'd love to say here, something has changed about the virus, but the truth is that we as a society are starting to figure out what works and what doesn't watching a ballgame in a crowded restaurant having a glass of beer. When the team scores I, miss it too. But the numbers reflect that we're acting wisely avoiding that kind of thing right now. People are doing a lot better with wearing masks starting to see cases declining in places that had been real hot spots, and that's one big reason why they're also aren't as many opportunities for super spreading events going to sports stadium is pretty much on hold venues like bars or either closed or operating very limited capacity and a lot of areas and so forth. Right most of the. United States has remained fairly lockdown for months, but you know that's about to change. Now that school is starting backup in many places, some colleges have had to scale back plans for on campus learning after outbreaks, and that's prompted others to require testing for all students coming back on campus. Here's what one New York University student had to say about the experience I just had to get tested. And I guess we have to take the necessary precautions or we go to school I mean it was definitely very uncomfortable to get the test done. But I think it's definitely necessary. So do these breaks and subsequent precautions. Tell us anything about whether or how we can return to some sense of normalcy. Looking at key through twelve and looking at colleges are two somewhat different questions since college students have a lot more independence as far as colleges go. I have to say a little because it comes down to a question of human nature asking students to resist the temptation to have parties is a pretty big request. American culture often tends to see them as part of college but. When you start having a lot of people crowded into a poorly ventilated space maybe shouting each other above the loud music may be having some drinks that's asking for trouble social life is going to look different for these students whether because they had the maturity not to party or because they didn't have the maturity and then the case counts up making their schools go to remote learning. With respect to the classes themselves, I think it comes to a question of how we define normalcy giant lecture classes with three hundred or five hundred people in a room. Those are not a great idea right now. But on the other hand, if we're being honest and I speak as someone who was a college student myself if a very long time ago, Nelson glasses without interaction between the prophet and the class are the easiest ones to move online. There isn't a conversation there. The students are just listening and taking notes. Now lab glasses, small classes that sort of thing. If. College students behave soberly both in the Metaphor Sense of acting wisely and in the literal sense of being sober and not boozing it up at parties I think that could be realistic but that is a big if we saw that with Penn state here in Pennsylvania, the university tested seventeen thousand students before coming to campus hundred and forty eight of them were positive. Okay. We knew there'd be some positives if we can is late them track them down where they've been quarantined them. We might be able to stay on top of that situation and that is the idea behind contact tracing but then some students were having crowded parties and that tends to be the straw that breaks the camel's back. At UNC Chapel. Hill. That's what sent everyone home. Yeah. Yeah. Well, what about K. through twelve schools now in Georgia and that's where I live students have been back in class for nearly a month now but that transition hasn't gone smoothly for every district several schools in fact, already had to quarantine staff and students after outbreaks. Clearly some things are different for K. through twelve schools especially with the younger children who really are not going to be sneaking out and partying. You also don't have the giant Lecture Hall classes with hundreds of people in one room, and the students are pretty much all coming from one small geographic area instead of traveling to and from various states and countries. That means a few good things. If you do get an outbreak I, likely it's going to be a lot smaller second. There is more ability to say we're going to shut down for a few weeks and let things cool off and then we'll try this again. And third if you do have to resort to that, you're less likely to ship the virus everywhere. It's a harder question when you have dorms full of students who aren't likely to stay put in their rooms during that period. It also does make it more of a regional and local question is a given area doing well with respect to its case numbers with respect to testing with respect to contact tracing does the school have the ability to space things out to keep things clean Some schools are in hot spots. Some are not equipped to respond if they become a hotspot or maybe even to detect whether they are hot spot and at an individual level, you also have students who really need not to bring the virus home students who live with their grandparents, for example, or have parents with special health needs. But these questions help individual schools and individual students to think about where they stand. Let's stay on on the topic of children just a bit longer if we can. We know most of them are not becoming gravely ill with covert nineteen however a new study in the Journal of. Found that children play a larger role in community spread and previously thought, and that's because even though often without symptoms, children had much higher levels of the virus in their nasal passages than adults. So that harden how does that change the calculation on schools? Well. The idea had been that since children don't usually get very sick with cove nineteen, perhaps the virus just didn't do well in young people. So if it didn't then maybe they wouldn't be very contagious. So here it sounds like the virus itself is replicating freely and the young people just don't have the hyperactive immune response that's causing so much trouble in older folks. Now it's better for the children of course, but perhaps it's worse for those around them because people who still feel well enough to be out and about are the ones who are going to spread the bug. Indeed. When we look abroad, we're seeing countries that had early outbreaks and then saw improvements are once again dealing with increasing cases so that the heart and what does that tell us about efforts to prevent transmission? It calls to mind that Greek quote about eternal vigilance being the price of liberty in places like Spain that had made a lot of progress people felt fatigued and ended up taking off masks going to party Cetera and pretty soon, the case numbers started trending up words again. Now I'm hearing talk of locking down parts of Europe again. So if we're not vigilant about corona virus, we're going to end up with more and more restrictions to prevent things from spiraling out of control but. The reverse is also true if we're vigilant wearing masks keeping our distance avoiding crowded situations, we can avoid lockdowns just as the college students can choose to be responsible and keep in person instruction or can choose to be irresponsible and end up having their campuses shutdown. We also have that same general choice. They're still so much about this disease that we don't know, and early on doctors turned to social media and other platforms to share information with each other about what they were seeing with patients and and the success or failures they were having with various forms of treatment. Can you talk a little bit about how that level of communication has helped in the fight against covid? Nineteen. Say It's more a collaborative effort in the research world down social media per se but yes doctors and researchers have been working hard to share what they're learning the big name journals that normally have pretty strict paywall. Everyone. Common read the Corona virus research free of charge. That's helpful because it let's doctors at smaller hospitals share in the information that's being exchanged by the academic folks at the research hospitals it breaks down that divide between the two. I have long thought that medicine should focus more on the patient and less on institutional prestige, and this is a great example of how people benefit from that instead of come to us and so hospital. Home of the world's best coronavirus care. The mindset is these are living human beings. We have to help them whether they come to our hospital or go somewhere else the last time you joined us, you're focused on research into ventilators and their effectiveness at treating those who are severely ill a recent discovery involving something called. A bubble test is providing some clues about why ventilators weren't working as well as expected. Can you explain that? Yes. That was a very interesting study first off let's talk for a moment about what a bubble study is. For any of our listeners who were ever olds these are not big bubbles like you used to make in the backyard with those bubble ones and some soapy water their microscopic wants to small to see. But when you inject them into the blood, you can follow them with an ultrasound machine to observe blood flow cardiologists have logged on this to look for holes in the heart, but an ICU docked tried doing it along with what's called a trans. Cranial doppler. It looks at blood flow inside the head. That seemed to show bubbles going to the stomach circulation, which is very odd finding. Normally they don't make it past the lungs that in turn could potentially show a problem with the capillaries tiny little blood vessels in the lungs. Now, those tiny vessels are also where Eric's change happens. So if something is going wrong with them, that might be an important clue to why covid nineteen patients on ventilators have done so poorly that may also Open up some avenues for research isn't this like a detective novel? It's like we got a clue and then we follow it to another clue and so forth it is. It is like a detective novel, Relax Luke's let's talk about other developments related to treatment. We've seen the death rate declined significantly from what was in the spring again here's the CD's Dr Robert Redfield I do think we're going to start to see significant declines in. Mortality Across the country in the next. Hopefully next week, we'll start to see a decline is going to lag cases by around four to three or four weeks. So Dr Horton does this mean that medical professionals have learned how to better fight than things? I'd love to claim credit for the medical profession and we do have a few important pieces of information we'd locked at the beginning. We now know that steroids help and we know more about supporting covid nineteen patients whose breathing is getting into trouble. But at the same time, there are several factors at play first and foremost the infection rate trended modestly down for a while and the infections that we're seeing often tend to focus on younger healthier people who are statistically much less likely to die from covid nineteen. No matter what we do. So one big question mark is how much the virus will spread from that population to older less healthy people. Another big question mark as we move into fall, is this how much of the disease severity is related to the initial viral load or the amount of virus? A person's starts out with this sounds like a very academic question, but it's not summertime. Exposures are likely to be later ones. If we're standing outside in you sneeze, it might not miss me entirely but it's not the same strong exposure that I have. If we're standing right next to each other in a room with poor air circulation, this does make me wonder if. Some of the improvement we've been seeing over the summer has come from these milder exposures maybe at a cookout, an outdoor birthday party or or what have you but you're all outside what happens when it's forty degrees out and people decide that they're going to keep having get togethers but indoors, the answer that will help us to understand how much of this was the better medical knowledge and how much was just my older exposures summer time will tell what about the drugs that showed promise early on are those still proving helpful. Systemic steroids. The kind you get through an IV in hospital do help with Severe Cases Reservoir SORTA Kinda helps somewhat it's neither bus nor blockbuster if you will. Convalescent plasma is an interesting idea that has helped with other diseases in the past and this time there may be enough patients to get some more formal research experience with it. Hydroxy. Chloroquine. I'd like to pause here for a moment and talk about it because we've got a lot of letters on that topic. I wanted so badly for hydroxy cleric to help I love the idea of drug repurposing i. loved the idea of something that's cheap and easy to manufacture being helpful. I just wanted there to be a way that we could put this genie back in the bottle. I was very much. One of the people who wanted to see the drug succeed and I wrote an article in world to that effect. I know there are focusing they've used it and had good results but with the virus that we're the great majority of patients survive it isn't that simple if we were discussing treatments for something like a Bulla which has a mortality rate of around fifty percent then say in my forty patients survived would be tremendous news. You'd have expected about twenty of the forty to die. Now one corona virus study looked healthy patients with an average age of about forty three noted that all forty or so studied survived and basically said that must have been all because of hydroxy chloroquine. Well, the truth is statistically those patients in their forty s would statistically have probably all needed. That's great news for the patients of course, but it makes it harder to do good research at the end of the day that really high quality research is how we prove whether things actually help, and now we have the luxury of a few large. well-done trials. And those seem to show that it just doesn't. We have the British recovery trial which had thousands of patients it was randomized, which is very important. It checked off all the boxes for doing research the right way. Then people said, well, hold up a second that trail didn't give the drug early enough. It only works if you give it very early. But then the University of Minnesota looked at it as post exposure prophylaxis. That's about as early as you can get your giving it to people who came in contact with someone who had corona virus as soon as we know that they had, but it didn't help there either again. I wish it worked for so many reasons but these trials were done well and they just did not show a benefit so much helpful information there. Thank you Dr Horton. You know we've covered a lot of ground here and we're almost done. But before I let you go I'd like to ask what related to the health issues involving Colbert. Nineteen. You the most hope. I'm still really excited about the progress that we're seeing vaccines as results come in there generally looking very good and again, we're talking about several different candidates even if multiple candidates that had good results in phase one and two studies don't work in phase three we'd have so many that I would be surprised if we do not end up with a good vaccine. In terms of what's in our toolbox right now, I am inspired by seeing how well Taiwan is doing. It's a democracy of three million people, two thirds of whom live in crowded cities that doesn't sound like a setup for success, but they've done so well that the Taiwan CDC is actually know speaking in terms of a post covid lifestyle for their country. They had the same tools in the box that we have masks, teston quarantines for travelers. They just used each of those tools really well, a post Colbert lifestyle that will be music to many ears I'm sure. Dr Charles Horton is a position in Pennsylvania and he's world's medical correspondent Horton. Thank you for joining us today. Any talk.
Coronavirus Hitting Stocks
"It's Monday January. Twenty seven from the market fully. I'm Chris Sale with me in studio Mr Jason Moser extra being here eight. Thanks for having me. We're GONNA talk about the corona virus because it is now starting to have an impact on the world of investing yell but first let's do a quick hit on housing because Dr Dr Dr. Horton the homebuilder. Reporting this morning shares hitting a new all-time high on Monday Horton's first quarter is basically everything you would wanna see if you're a shareholder but also your investing into any business that is related to new home construction You know profit and revenue higher-than-expected. It's the first quarter. They raised their full year estimates Uh for new home construction. So this was I mean. The stock is up about three percent today. But this is kind of everything you want isn't it. Yeah I think so and I think when you look at the you look at the history of this stock one. Three five years ten years I mean it really is never been a bad time to own this stock doc over the last decade and I'm not the biggest homebuilders guy in the world. I mean it's just a lot of capital requirements there and it can be very lumpy and certainly a Higher Risk Space for four mismanage companies but D. R.. Horton has not a mismanaged company. They they have really I think done a good job of just keeping expectations in check back to your point The quarter was very encouraging and They talked about the net sales orders which essentially gives us an hi dea of of future revenue net sales orders grew nineteen percent to just over thirteen thousand one hundred homes and it grew twenty two percent in value to three three point. Nine billion dollars is a lot of money in there but I think to me. This isn't just about D. R. Horton's quarter but about a week ago. Oh we saw some really impressive home. Builder confidence numbers in it. Wasn't it wasn't that long ago. I mean the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Showed that really i. It's it's this is a great time for home. Builder's sentiment wise in in the association president. Jerry Howard he stated that do you think the two thousand twenty is going to be considered the roaring twenties in terms of the homebuilding market. Like he thinks this is going to be pardon. My French one hell of a year to be a home builder in based on your horns results not only pass but also what they're seeing in the future they might be right there might be. I love when ever I hear are over. The last few months people refer to this decade. It's the roaring twenties because it makes me WANNA go. You know the the roaring twenty s of the last century. It didn't end so well I just Are you aware now that being said Yeah. I saw that survey and I thought Oh boy. That's that's even if you want to discount on its slightly. Because they're talking around book. It's still shaping up to be a good year for housing. I mean go back to last fall when we were talking about about the retail numbers the National Retail Association coming out and projecting holiday spending and what they thought it was going to be in they they nailed the number. So it'll it'll be interesting to see it certainly off to a good start. Yeah but I mean you also like maybe this is the last seventy guy me but I look at those types of projections those types of surveys surveys and when you see sent like you have to flip that on its head and say okay. Things are really good right now. The market is forward looking. I mean it's it's it's bringing all of that future Optimism into that share price today. So one little hiccup or perhaps a little bit of a you know correction in the market or whatever so it's not to say go out and buy homebuilders. I mean that's not what we're we're saying here I mean but we are saying that it's been a really nice ride for Dr Horton shareholders of the last decade. And it seems like this year is shaping up to be another good year but I would also argue that things are really good right now. Unemployment looking pretty good generally consumer sentiment obviously home builder sentiment. We start to see that tide. Hi Turn that the market will turn on these things pretty quickly. You gotta be aware of that. I know you have a couple of baskets already. So I'm not pushing you to create yet another basket of stocks but to your point. I think that we've been consistent for the past decade on this. Show that if you want to invest in housing spread out your risk. Don't go all in on the home. Builder's elders if if there are a couple of home builders that you're interested in maybe temper that with a home depot Lowe's a business like waste management which is obviously in the business of garbage but certainly when home home builders are doing well. That's another business as well. It is and I would get cracking on that. But I'm still working on the Ron Gross convenience basket with we discussed a few weeks ago in Mali. Money You you make a you make your made me remember. I had spoken with Nick Saipa a few times about about this and I think he had been working on putting together a basket. SORTA like what you're talking about their circle back with him after we get done today. All right let's talk about the corona virus because As I said this is this is now making its way into the world of investing. Obviously this is a serious health issue with right before we walked in the studio I checked are now five five confirmed cases here in the US in Arizona and California and in terms of how this is playing out in the stock market. It's a `bout what anyone would expect. It is travel related stocks that are down airlines cruise lines in China starbucks starbucks KFC pizza. They've all closed their locations. In in the region Disney resorts have been closed in Shanghai and Hong Kong hotel chains. I'm waving their cancellation fees. So this like I said this seems like there's nothing unexpected expected in terms of a week off. You'd said if this gets worse over the next week what stocks do you think. You're going to be hit this. This is the list of usual suspects. And if this gets cleared up in pretty short order. Then congratulations you get to buy Disney four percent cheaper than he would paid last week Sanfer starbucks but it does present potential long-term longer term risk. I mean potentially I mean I I definitely think first and foremost when you look at the history of market moves. I mean this one and a half percent. It's just a rounding error right. I mean we've we've dealt with with situations much more urgent than this and I was talking with Matt Frankel this morning as we were taping industry focus. I just asked you know one check when you wake up in the morning and you see the market selling off four or five hundred points. What are you GonNa do and man's like what the first thing I don't do as I don't open my broker Roku brokerage statement these because I don't need to go in there and try to maybe create a problem that doesn't really exist? Let's just remember. We're stolen this for the long haul and and typically When you look at all of that read we have A? We have a great reaction to that loss than we do. When we see a lot of green green and in that redken creates emergency? Really it is all about figuring out ways to manage your emotions in check and I I also like just looking back at history in this. This stuff happens all the time I mean whether it's SARS or Zico or the avian flu I mean these things happen all the time and in so you have to assume as an investor. They're always going to continue to happen now. Now when they happen is anyone's guess and that's why we don't Subscribed market timing because it's just impossible to do You look look at some companies like you mentioned there starbucks Disney I think making the prudent move there and shutting down operations in affected areas in their very big companies. They're you're gonna be able to weather that storm without too much trouble at all. It's always worth noting that when you're talking about consumer facing businesses whether it's starbucks or Disney they're not going to get those Oh sales back right. They're not going to double up on traffic. Once they opened the stores backup so in the near term they can be material losses or at least losses that the business feels Dell's but when you talk about travel stocks I mean I- booking dot com is the same awesome business today as is it was a week ago and ensure maybe we'll see some decline in travel in the near term. And if that is the case and you see a company like booking dot com go on sale I mean I would argue. That's a business. You probably need to have on your radar. So they all. They're not all the same but but they're certainly they're certainly ways to cope with situations like this and it's also worth remembering that in the grand scheme of things while certainly the corona virus is a big deal and we don't want that to get out of control for for investors. This is still pretty minimal as it goes today it is but I think it also provides an opportunity to look at your your portfolio. See if you have any of these stocks and start to pay attention. Maybe a little bit more than you would otherwise to. How good a job? Bob Is my company in my portfolio doing at communicating. This is to me a guidance. Check opportunity whether it's starbucks Disney any of the airlines to hotel chains. That sort of thing. It's going to be interesting to see how they communicate how regularly regularly they communicate because this is one of those things where as you said particularly the case of a business like Disney in terms of what it means for the revenue for the quarter. It's not going to be a huge number number. That being said is a Disney shareholder. I I want and expect that you're going to get the communication on the diagnose. Soon I don't want the next quarterly the report to come out and it's like boy that turned out to be so much worse than we were telling you. It's like really. Why would be searching the word corona virus in every earnings? Call this burning season. This is because you're right. You WANNA see companies out there at least addressing it in communicating very much like with the trade war with China right. I mean that's that's been a point of order for many quarters now. It seems like in some companies. Were doing a better job at communicating. How it would or would not impact act their business and in so yeah? I think you're right. That is a great learning experience. A great opportunity to learn more about the companies that you own not only had they're communicating. How they deal with an issue like this But also how exposed are they in the first place I mean. Maybe you don't realize that apple makes You know a twenty percent of its revenue from China Anna and a third of its operating profit from China. And how is it going to impact the business like that. What about Disney and starbucks shutting down operations? McDonald's yum brands So yeah there's there's there's plenty plenty to learn from that in the flip side. Is You look at something like Johnson and Johnson which that's just your stayed blue chip company that people. We'll probably don't really think much more about these days because it's just a slow grower But I mean Johnson Johnson is the one getting out there saying. Hey you know what we're working on this right right now to develop a vaccine the one the one the one thing I have to say the chief science officer. Johnny says we're pretty confident we can get this vaccine. The please don't qualify that. That's kind of like that. At and T.. Commercial just okay is not okay so even if you got a lied to me like make me feel better about the situation to not pretty compensate. Listen to me we are on it and this is happening because I I told me you're working. You're working. Tell me you're working on it because I'm certain that they will develop a vaccine in whether it takes a couple of months or even perhaps a year. I do think it's a testament to you. How quickly a lot of these companies add here can get into problem solving mode when it comes to what could potentially be a global crisis? I mean I don't think this is GonNa let me global crisis but it does make you realize that I mean. In many cases capitalism does work in this I think is a good example. I mean Johnson and Johnson business has been around for a long time. Time has a lot of capital resources in big long. Track record of solving a lot of problems like this So it's nice to see companies like that getting on the forefront and saying you know what we're on on it and we're going to have this figure it out and then we'll move onto the next crisis lasting before we wrap up we've been talking a lot about consumer stocks got an email from caroline aligned Smith one of our listeners who right I understand what consumer stocks could get hit hard by the outbreak of this virus. But is there any reason to think that B. Two B. stocks talks specifically software as a service stocks could also be affected. I would say probably the greater risk to those stocks. Today they would be less directly tied to what is going on in China and or with the corona virus but more tied to their they're astronomical valuations and I think SAS companies are really good. Example of there is a lot of great stuff out there. A lot of awesome businesses doing a lot of awesome things it could be argued that valuations have gotten stretched in that in that segment. I mean I think we're all looking at him and thinking holy cow allom. These businesses still aren't profitable is over twenty thirty forty times sales so I think that there is a risk not directly tied to the krona virus. But more of a headline risk that plays out on on their valuations That is not business related right. That is bigger picture related and I think that if anything that could be a welcome event for many who have a lot a lot of these says companies on their radar if you're constellation brands the company that owns corona. Just don't try and get cute with your marketing. Not No. I don't think they're in any danger of corona sales falling dramatically but if they come up with some marketing campaign that's like more corona less virus. I just just don't you. You know and I said that to my daughter is on the way to school this morning. You know I mean it. Just they're such an opportunity there but we say some of these things in jest. I mean our job at the end of the day as investors is to try to find the opportunities right and yeah I mean there is. There's the opportunity for corona to do something with this but they're going to have to tread very ear. He carefully case a Muslim. Thanks for being here as always people on the program may have interested in stocks. They talk about on the Motley. Fool may have formal recommendations for can't sit on by yourself stocks based solely when you hear that's GonNa do it for this edition market fully. The shows mixed by Dan. Boy I'm Chris L.. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.
Fast Money 03/26/21
"Exchange is now a podcast. I'm brian sullivan. Join me as we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards of global. Trade the news. You need to know what real world actionable advice. Even a little fun and unique content. You won't get anywhere else like the most random but interesting thing you'll hear all day subscribe to the worldwide exchange podcast today. I am brian sullivan in for melissa lee and this is fast money. Tonight's traitor lineup. Mr steve grauso brian kelly. Jeff bills and vaughn icing tonight on fast. The china tech wreck china internet stocks falling hard this week. So if you own these names what do you do sell out or load up. We'll get some answers stuck in the suez. Another attempt to clear that block ship failing economic impact building up faster than the traffic jam of cargo itself stocks. You need to watch all of this. Some pop big time today and then your charter. The week this name knocked losing nearly half its value just since monday. But guess what he's got one of our traders hitting the seeing value in that name. Can you guess we'll bring it to you head all of that over the next twenty eight or so minutes that we've got together before options actions kicked off. Don't worry get to it. All let us begin macro and as you heard sarah in welches talk about that frenzied friday finish. Let's check out the tale of the tape. The s. and p. five hundred sluggish. Much of the day doing nothing. Hey take the day off nope because then later in the afternoon buyers came in stocks surging right around three. Pm all the major averages finishing at their highs of the day and with that game not huge but again the s. and p. five hundred nearly six percent this year not including dividends so. Let's jump right in brian kelly. Bk what does this kind last. Hour market move. Tell you as we head into a weekend. Could be a a big time monday. I mean it. It may be what we saw throughout the day that i know we're going to get to the chinese internet stocks and in a later on but we did see what looked like some sort of liquidation. What was curious those. We didn't see generally when you see something happened like that you'll see the physicians go down in the short positions. Go up but we didn't see that. So maybe this last hours related to that. Maybe this was short-covering in the last hour. I you know we've got a fair amount of news. It's a short week next week. Though as well just in the last hour you have this ship in the suez start floating a bit. So i think everything conspired right around three o'clock to just get this face ripping rally towards the end of the day. No don't make too much of that ship. Pk it's got a long way to go. The ever given that little guy in the in the backhoe may have got it moving just a bit but we still got a ways to go. Steve grasso when you look at this kind of violent market move by the way to the upside probably better than to the downside for the majority of our viewers. What does it tell you well when you look at those handful of stocks that. Pk alluded to those The chinese stocks are chinese facing stocks. We all came in this morning on wall street and goldman sachs was shopping massive pieces of three names around the street so the market took its lead from thirty million shares of this stock fifty million shares of this stock ten million shares of of by do for sale so tencent by do vip shop. All these names put a blanket on the market brian. It traded training price pieces. Yeah we're talking to china. China's internet stocks in just a second. You guys are running down here. I know it's a friday. You want to get out there. Let's just back it up but we'll get to that those macro market my friend the macro. Snp if we care the nasdaq the dow what happened. It wasn't really that gentle move in the ever given the suez. This theory i apologize. I was i apologize. I was getting there but the point is is these names actually pushed the style wants. These names started to rally the names that were responsible for taking us down. It pulled the rest of the market up tremendously and drastically and dramatically. So when you said what's monday going to hap- what's gonna happen. Money is going to be a big upside monday. It could be a margin. Call monday to brian so get to the afternoon on monday. A lot of people could be tapped on the shoulder and said hey bill. Hey sue you gotta cover those positions. Those positions are getting called in. So it's sort of a flip of the coin and it gives something for everyone heading into the weekend or guys ready to get back to the market here. You could see me looking away because you've got some breaking news on the vaccines actually one. That may help speed up to roll out as well. Let's get right now back to kill. She's been breaking news all day and she has more vaccines now. Hey brian i've learned that the white house is studying. Whether to temporarily suspend patent protections for vaccines and treatments developed to treat covid nineteen in response to specific requests from south africa and india who have lodged a formal request to the world trade organization to get access to these medicines and so far the issue has been tabled on a global scale. But now i've learned that it's risen to the highest levels within the binding administration according to three sources familiar with the matter as recently as monday of this week. A meeting of deputy level policymakers convene to discuss the issue. But i'm told by my sources that no decision was reached. Although privately house speaker. Nancy pelosi many of the members of her caucus have supported this move behind the scenes that she has sent a private letter to the white house expressing her own support for pursuing such a move. You can imagine. There is fierce debate on either side of this discussion on one. Hand pharmaceutical companies say that this would compromise medical innovation in the future on the other hand. You have many developing nations. Who say that they would like access to these medicines and they argue that wealthier nations are essentially these medicines that they've developed in the words of one source who's familiar with some of the support among progressive lawmakers. Here in the us. They say we're not all safe until everyone is safe. Brian we should note. I just got a statement in from the office of the us trade representative who will have jurisdiction over this issue. And who. I believe will make the final decision and it says that they are using every avenue to coordinate with their global partners. Back to you can open it up. Broadly to your point. Two more manufacturing sharing facilities to sharing supply chains and distribution and getting us past two and a half billion mark. Day where we stand right now. Kayla tashi breaking news on that interviewing peak budaj it really breaking news on a potential mileage tax kayla. We appreciate it both. Thank you very much bond. When i said. Just give us a comment. Listen you're not an epidemic. You might be epidemiologist. I am not. But i've said that the only real data that matters right now is health. Data is this a moment. Is this a market moving piece of news for the market or just take good piece of news for the country. i think it's more concentrated. Well listen i. I i think the no on the head right. We're all looking at two things. Interest rates and cova development. So yes it is. It is a data point for sure. I think it's more relevant to the healthcare sector. And i'll say you reading between the lines here. We've got to keep in mind that this is probably one of the more collaborative efforts. We've seen in medicine and lease in recent history. And i know. I don't have the same hindsight or experience that some of the others have in terms of like how long they've been around. But i do read inform myself and what i'm saying is in terms of you. Mentioned supply chains. Being shared collaboration. In terms of vaccine efficacy and terms of testing rollouts shared laboratories. And things that nature by points this has been at the forefront of innovation and collaboration. And i think for us now to pare that back and try to part and parcel and i understand the need for intellectual p deftly. We're talking about global pandemic. I think the precedent that has been set in terms of collaboration needs to continue both intra country and interstate and intercountry as it pertains to developed and developing nations. Absolutely you're listening to. I hear you it. Don't be all like. I'm so young. I wasn't born the last pandemic nineteen sixty eight. The last airbase. I wasn't around. I'm not speaking for grass or k. On that one. But hey jeff gene. Roll out so thrilled about these well. You'll probably a baby. it's fine. i know jeff. There's a lot of passion around the vaccine going into the vaccines that whatever we're talking about reducing hospitalizations and fatalities and getting the majority of the economy. The ones that are still close by the way. Because half america's run wide open already. The ones that are still closed back open. Does this matter for stocks. I think it does. Because i think he can have an effect more broadly on things that we care about like the dollar and interest rates for example you've had international economies generally developing and developed sort of lagging on the growth front. There was less stimulus and the vaccine. Rollouts been a little bit slower. And i think partially that's to blame for the strength that we've seen in the dollar lately. Typically the account or cyclical currency global growth picks up the us lags because international economies are more cyclical. So you have the dollar pressure. What's going on right. Now is the exact opposite so if you can start to see the vaccine. Rollout pick up steam both in europe and japan and then developing nations as well. I think that could have an impact on the dollar and then obviously that trickles through to a lot of other areas of the economy but just on today very quickly reminds me of one thing and it reminds me that this market is very broad. I think it feels bad. When the market's down two or three percent and you see these pockets that have been hit really hard but ultimately i think this is a market where can go. Higher cyclicals can go higher. Yes i think. Cyclicals lead the way but this is a very broad market. We haven't seen cracks in credit. Industrials are making. New relative is not necessarily a backdrop for a broad market top. Just by the way on to that point getting a note here from dubrovka lakos buddha's who we all know very well saying the market is no longer stacked against growth from a risk reward perspective. Most of the damage has been done so a positive note from j p m just crossing after the market closed. Kind of goes to your point. Jeff okay. let's turn a bit now to one of the big pain points for the market this week. And then the china based internet stocks. Many of them getting absolutely squashed the k. Web china internet. Etf down twelve percents. Monday and fifteen percent in just one month so what exactly is driving. Sell off. well. It has a lot to do with the sec. Potential new rules bop assigning more about than anybody who's been digging and he joins us now. What exactly is the sec. Either going to force or propose that did that kind of damage to those companies and their shareholders. Yet it's one of several problems. China starts have had this week brian. So there's a new. Sec rule requiring foreign companies to submit their documentation about in. It's causing a lot of headaches for these chinese investors. Us listed companies have repeatedly run afoul of efforts by us regulators to monitor the audits of us companies this week the sec began the process of implementing eight new law that will require companies to submit documents to establish that they're not owned or controlled by a government entity. Chinese companies will also have the name each board member who is a chinese communist party official if the companies failed to comply after three years. Us regulators could deliver the companies in the past. Couple of days there has been huge block trades going off in many china names including ten cent music vip shop by do and there's some speculation that this is forced liquidation by some fun that someone is saying. Get me out of these and other stocks. Chinese regulators have also been putting pressure on china tech giants in november chinese regulators. Stunned investors by nixing abc groups. Ipo at the last minute since then. Chinese officials have repeatedly expressed concerns about inflated stock prices and excessive leverage in the system. And he add to that backlash against nike and adidas. This week on chinese social media. It's a very complicated stu affecting china's stocks. The big issue is whether chinese companies will open their books. us regulators in the future china regulators have resisted turning over data largely because the sensitivity around those state owned enterprises the banks the energy the industrial companies. They don't want to open up those books to the us government agencies because then the government agencies would know what subsidies these companies are getting from the chinese government. Brian is salt. More than three hundred million shares. Ten cent music trade today just in the regular hours normally trade seventeen million. Somebody's definitely liquidating shares of some chinese companies as well some other company that saw huge amounts of trades viacom as well. Somebody's getting out of a position here. Brian that's it bubbas on by the way i love your cheese steak piece. On the news or shepard smith the other day became. We have any idea who's shopping. These big blocks maybe grasso can chime in. No yeah no listen. I don't have any insight on that except to say that the size of the blocks were a lot larger than the thirteen reporting out there so it is either a group together getting out or somebody that hasn't filed a thirteen f yet. But it's very very curious. The one thing i would say is. I do not think that today's selling was related. To the fact that three years from now you might. They might get delisted. Nobody's rushing stocks. Like they did today. I if it's a three year type of process steve. Yeah it was. It was speculated that it was one of two funds. I'm not gonna say it. It wouldn't be prudent for me to say the funds. But there's definitely some forensic being done on wall street to see which funded to brian's point which could actually have the ammo for the definitely circulating to funds that are at the top of the pile for who could be for the four selig guys. Thank you are coming up. We are trading the all time high clubs should you fade. These record runs or the games just getting started by high cell higher r. traders away and neck plus it is friday night and all you loyal fast money fans out there and that means we've got chart of the week for you so stick around to discover what name we're watching. Discover the name. We're watching charter. The week guesses senator anybody with me. We're back what exchange is now a podcast. I'm brian sullivan. Join me as we hit the biggest money stories from around the world breaking down the risks and rewards of global. Trade the news. You need to know what real world actionable advice and even a little fun and unique content. You won't get anywhere else like the most random but interesting thing you'll hear all day subscribe to the worldwide exchange. Podcast today fast. Good good friday everybody. Well a bunch of names entering the all time high club today. Names like o'reilly automotive. Dr horton home. Depot waste management and. That is just a few. There's some others that you can read them so these gains and some of these names just getting started or is it time to take your profits and run and go put the money somewhere else. We thought it'd be a perfect time to play a little game of look at look at the glowing enthusiasm from our traders. That was that was beautiful. When oliver became the ninth brady in the final season of the show. That's it we're playing traded or faded high fliers addition. Let's kick things off with. Dr horton up thirty percent alone this year. Bk traded or faded sully amped up to talk about this name. So let me go. Let me go right into it. I'm gonna of yours at home. No i'm trading it. Which means i'm buying the game very excusing but i'm buying. Here's why we're all looking in this market. For companies that have pricing power if inflation comes down the pipe which looks like it is who has pricing power well. There aren't as many homes for sale as they used to be so therefore supplies reduced and now d. r. Horton has the ability to raise prices. At some point in the future it becomes a problem. But that's not today's problem and that's what the market pricing in. I think this breakout is just getting started. And do you agree. I agree with a lot of what he said. But i came to the exact opposite conclusion. So i'm fading here you about the pricing power but what's informing me and what i see a lot of other traders being of is valuation. And what i see in d. r. horton is a slight premium in terms of price earnings book on afford and shelling basis. So in terms of being able to pass along prices in terms of return metrics and everything else on the balancing. There's not a lot to be part and parcel between l. h. i. multi homes and a lotta the others so for me it's just a matter of rotate into something. Reduce my risk a little bit by buying something with the lower valuation. That has the same type of up side. I'm gonna fade it for that reason right there you go. You just made a market you to all right staying with the housing related play. Homedepot stay in hot up thirteen percent so far this year. I mean steve. Kratz traded or faded. How much more hd having the tank. Well first of all. I'm going to trade. It let me just get out there and say why likes these names for when you're looking at a stock that's a made an all time high. The odds are it's going to go higher because if it breaks out of some sort of trend some sort of pattern and then the rest of wall street. The analyst community are chasing it so they wind up pushing things. Higher with price targets. Home depot has a couple of different more difficult comps moving forward but people are staying home more. That's going to be a trend. Brian about fifteen percent of the workforce is going to remain at home. You look around your house. Everything needs to be fixed. You're gonna stay on that. Trend home depot was traded by trade. It by it. Everything fees fixed around the house. That's exactly what my wife says. Jeff mills what do you think trade. It or faded on home depot. So listen this is sort of a half-hearted fade slash self. would you rather them glad melissa. Playing the game right. But i would rather lows when looking at lowe's or home depot steve's point you look at restoration hardware look at williams sonoma. They are telling you that people are still spending money on their homes. I just think lows has more upside. I think that they have more. In the way of operational improvements to make and i like the valuation spread when comparing lows versus home depot. Lowe's at nineteen times four at home depot at twenty four times ford. They're both breaking out. I both think they have upside momentum. I think the chart looks a little bit. More convincing for lows so fading home depot just made a marketing. Both and steve. I prefer to what. I didn't know all the things that wrong because i cannot. I came to change a lightbulb on up the ladder. All right next up o'reilly automotive shares there this year. That's a great point sir. You win the contest shows over anyway. Bond with accordia. Faded on o'reilly around the fitting this one as well and similar logic as i expressed with. Dhi right when i look at a riley vs autozone for example right rally trading about four or five turns more expensive. You look at the balance sheet and you look at margin growth like all of these things are very similar so again. I think this is really. What's informing traders right now. I'm going ahead and roll down. The wrist curve getting similar company. Pay a little bit less for it there. You go bhawan fading. O'reilly automotive steve. Grasso wins fourteen to two against everybody else guys. Thank you very much coming up. It is your chart of the week. Why one of those four gentlemen is buying that name on that week is the name. There's the chart. Its next naked. Afraid for back after this time to reveal your chart of the week that stock just handed in its worst week ever falling forty six percent since monday. If you got it it's discovery. Pk you bought a bit of it. Today y. yeah it took. I took a little nibble on it. So listen this is not saying there's value here. I'm not saying that. I have any insight on the company. The only that i have is that last friday. This stock was trading near seventy five dollars. Almost and it's been cut in half did the prospects of the company and their business change by fifty percent over the last week. I don't think so. I'm taking a shot over the weekend. All right fireplace kelly. Thank you very much time now for our final. let us go around the horn. Starting with you steve. Grasso oh l. And by mill general s and p global going higher. Bottling docu sign once that two hundred dollar level stocks a little on the trashy side wm waste management. You buy it guys. Great stuff get an edge. Invest like a pro access. Cnbc's livestreams around the globe unparalleled access to cnbc. Experts actionable investor insights and ideas. Start your free trial today at cnbc dot com slash pro.
How to Overcome Fear with LisaBeth Thomas
"One of my favorite stats is that. We're only born with two fierce. That's it only born with a to fears. Were born with the fear falling and the fear of loud noises and that's cool. I everything else. We've learned any everything else. The programming right. It's something maybe our parents said or did or didn't do or teachers or something we've heard on the news. There's so many times that. I realize something's bugging me and i'm like oh my god. That was my mom. That wasn't even my stuff. it's in your head. Welcome to tribal leaders podcast. I'm serial entrepreneur and investor. Emmy and i've known for sprinkling just a little bit of glitter throughout the streets of philadelphia and on stages speak while i help entrepeneurship struggling as the overworked adleman in their business and become the ceo of their multi six and seven figure businesses. What has fascinated me over. The years are the stories of success and failure that entrepreneurs have put it all on the line face as they change lives disrupt industries and become incredible leaders themselves. So if you're looking for a community of engaged entrepreneurs and you'd love to get some resources and tools that can help you fast. Track your business. I invite you to join the tribe of leaders facebook group. The link is in the show notes if you want to connect with us and of course. The group is free to join. Hey everybody welcome to the tribal leaders podcast on today's show i have l. b. which stands for lisa. Beth thomas she lives right. Outside of austin rightly said whilst didn't forget that the just had that space moment and so excited to have you share your story because you been through it all and still obviously grown amazing business and then how all that happen and then climbed out on top after losing everything so welcome to the show. I can hardly wait to hear everything that you're gonna share and all the words of wisdom with that i'm gonna let you take it away and just tell us a little bit about who you are and let's let's dive into the first business too. Okay thank you for having me. And i've read all about you. I've listened to some some of the podcast and you are just amazing. Some honored to be involved and included. So thank you for that nice yes so gears. About twenty years ago had an ad agency here in austin and had it for about fourteen years and we did really well our first year. We hit seven figures and we kept seven figures going and we were working with the economy austin businesses and we got a reputation because i was in production as well. So we're working with miramax and we worked on hope floats and we did all kinds of reality shows. Hdtv things and just had a ball and had that for about fourteen years during that time when we talk about fear but there was for about ten years my partner was my husband. And i should've gotten out of that marriage earlier. And i'm sure there's people that can relate to that completely that i'm raising my hand like i almost wanted to create a t shirt that said wanted to marry so badly. I'm married so badly. So we know but during that we had some financial setbacks with the irs and not to get into details of that but some personal taxes weren't filed on our behalf and sub clear. And so through. All of this. I ended up losing my business of fourteen years. But really twenty twenty two years in austin but as an ad agency had to sell my house to pay off the irs. To take care of all that mom died and that was from april to august. I mean and i know you're supposed to have one of those like a year for stress things than i just. I did it in four months. I'm an. I'm an overachiever. You got it. And i think i mean to me because i one of those people who were like nothing happens for a really long time and then it's like boom boom boom so there's always i refer to them as learning experiences that can come out of the other side but when you're in the middle of it it's hard. It's so hard and know you. And i talked last week about this. Is that the biggest. The hardest thing for me as i didn't want to tell anybody i was ashamed. I really thought my brand was who i was and i thought people liked me because i was connected and i was working movies and i you know had all these things and i thought how am i gonna tell people you know after so from the divorce which everybody was aware of that at the fallout from all the things that i found out during all that i thought i can't tell anybody i mean we were in the top twenty five if you looked at the ranks financially. We're one of the top twenty five agencies in austin. Yeah it was really hard. I was ashamed. I would go to work. And i would stare at my computer and i would cry and i had a staff. They knew obviously something was wrong. And what happened is i started to be completely transparent. I had rob peter to pay paul so pay the irs. I had to take money from the business to pay over there and then during this mike confidence was shot. My self esteem was gone. Mike pence was gone. So people would say you know what staff. Let's go get new business. There is no way there is no creative juices. So i i mean i've been not in obviously you are experience but in different experiences in mind divorce to where it wasn't the worst divorce on the planet but certainly was not a good one right on my kids were mass and juggling all these balls and did. I actually showed up with all i could do. Yeah i'm quitting pitiful for lack of better term. But i think everybody's had a moment like that. Where like that's it now. It's not that you don't have the drive to go get the business like that's a great idea. We should get where business. I can't do it right now. I can't do it if you ask me. If i ran into you somewhere and you asked me. How do i i would. Just start crying. Because there is a point where i couldn't cover it up anymore and somebody asked me later if i was depressed. If i've been depressed. And i said no because i never knew i've never been depressed. I didn't know what that looks like. And the later i thought about it i went well if going home every night and drinking a bottle of wine and not good wine because i had no money it was the bottom shelf crappy wine you know. They sleep and drink a bottle that i cry myself to sleep. Get up the next day i was like yeah. I guess i was depressed. I didn't know what that looked like night. Then standing on the steps and watching the the house be sold. My mom died the month before that so it was just so hard. But what i got from. That is as you said learning experiences. That i had to lose literally everything. I was homeless and not homeless in the sense of living under a bridge. And my daughter's married in san antonio and the other two were at texas tech. I was sleeping on people's couches. I was sleeping in people's extra bedrooms. A friend of mine. Let me stay at his place so for six months. I didn't have a home. People were sliding gas cards into my purse in every sense lost everything. And you thought. I'd drop twenty pounds or something with all that. But i guess that stressed as you know so anyway i was just hot mess but what i learned was ahead lose everything i had to cut ties completely from my past from all of that so i could first of all figure what was going on in may and create my new life A friend of mine told me just the other day he said. I would've because i almost gave you that money in. He is a construction company and he he could've given in quarter million dollar check half million You know that would have been nothing out of something but has business. He would have been happy to said. I'm so glad you didn't. Because i'd still being there i had to go. I'm done right. Why do you think you had to lose everything. What was it about the as opposed to like half of everything before you could cut ties and really go and be in a different direction first of all and you know from divorce that if i would have kept that business and as these projects are coming on now he still could come back and said well. I was part of that. At the beginning. I was part of the partner so he could sued me and even though we were divorced. There's that legal that kind of thing so that that was that. But i know what you're really asking about me. Is i figure out my stuff. I had a lot of insecurities. But i didn't realize i did and i was doing. I had patterns of not speaking up for myself again. I'm elite. I stand on as i started texas one in business. I you know you would think i'm good but push came to shove with the kids. I wouldn't stand up foreign or would if a client pushback. I wouldn't say well. That's wrong or i didn't know why i was doing those things so when all that went away and i stop blaming everybody else. There's a point you have to stop blaming everybody else and take responsibility. What's my part in. This made me start going how. I don't wanna be that person anymore. I want to stand up for myself right. I do. I do that. Why am i afraid. And again seven figure base again. If you looked at me from the outside you'd be like she's got it all right and got it together and together. I want to be like her now. And i think probably ninety five percent of women probably everybody but women kill the same. I think so. i mean just. I've talked to the clients worked with. It's easy to be on stage. Because that's one part theatrics and you can be somebody else and we were taught to be good girls most of us particularly if you're over thirty five or so you put on that mask. You put on that. He put on that code of success but on the inside. It's like a this phase really got my heart to knowing whether the grocery store. I'm talking to somebody we all have something. No summer devastating. I mean mine isn't devastating to somebody who's lost a loved one or child or that but it's devastating to me because it happened to me. I have a lot more compassion for people. Knowing that there's probably something going on behind the scenes. Yeah absolutely was one of the things i pulled away and pulled out of my divorce too because i had to sell the house that we're living in. He had moved out the year and a half before and my neighbors didn't really surround me with support now. I didn't ask as much as i could should have the right. There was a space for them to step into konami. Make sure she is. You know still speaking coherently to write and trying to figure out how to grow business as while. And i really learned that. Don't judge other people for those offer remarks if they seem upset or whatever you're experiencing because you don't know what's going on in their head you don't just thinking about what's happening for them and to Open space for that. There's a level of kindness that we can all experience from that especially with the world today. What i found is because i share my my inner circle knew something was wrong. They i mean they knew but they didn't know how bad they didn't know how bad it was. But one of the lessons i learned is when we keep things to ourselves others can't help others can't share blessing others and people. Are you know right now if you said to me. Hey i i need some help. Can you send me something i. What's the address i would do. We want to help others and keeping our mouths shut and not sharing her story. Were really blocking people. From having that joyous experience of giving i look at it as i was talking about the other day that i think about a held on my fist for so clenched. That when they're like this you can't receive right so that was my first lesson the minute i took that mask of everything's gate. I'm good i yeah women lined up to tell me their stories they thank you for sharing on my god i cure. I'm carrying this weight. Nobody knows round at this broke my heart and then i realized i am not alone. Which was lovely. I hated that. I'm not alone. But it's lovely that i'm not alone right. I agree on his part of why when to have this podcast. I love talking to women just like you is that we all have similar stories even if they come from different places in the experiences are different but the learning can be very similar. And if we don't share is being entrepreneur can be so isolating at time that i think having that connection of the person had something that was similar to what i experienced can really help but just be at ease so what i'm curious about. Is it fear that was keeping you from letting people know that you were struggling or something else. It was fear first of all. I thought it was as i said my insecurities but when i started digging into it and figuring it out it was the fear of we have core fears and it was the core fears of not being good enough not being worthy. I go down the list. Not being loved in going to be left alone. I could go down down down those fears but at the surface i thought it was just ashamed but then when i started going through the process of getting down to that core fear of what's below being ashamed is not being good enough and that sucks. You know. It really does when you realize that. And of course. I'm good enough. And here's we'll the thing that's one of my favorite stats is that we're only born with two fierce that's it. We're only born with fear to fears. Were born with the fear of falling the fear of loud noises. I on everything else. We've learned any everything else where the programming right. It's for something. Maybe our parents said or did or didn't do or teachers or something we've heard on the news. There's so many. There's times that. I i realize something's bugging me and i'm like oh my god. That was my mom. Wasn't even my stuff but it's in your head. Yeah one of my friends. He was saying he's sixty one years old and he was saying that you know he was like you know. He was eight years old at school and had up into france and the life of the party of the class and one day teacher sent home a note and gave it was mom. Mom read at mom hit it. He wouldn't found it of course as we all did as eight year old nine years old and he read the note and it says sullen so thinks that everyone likes them. They don't he has no friends now. We don't know what was going on with her or he made a bit of a pain in the neck. I don't know and he may paraphrased it but anyway he was eight and his whole life is now being good enough so people like me so his entire life has been people pleasing making sure everybody else likes them doing everything for everybody else and he went through the process of the outwitting fear and guy down the bottom when he discovered figured that outlet cut. No wonder i'm exhausted. I'm trying to make everybody else happy. So they like me. And i thought that i wish i would figure this out years ago and i went. Hey you're only sixty one and hopefully you've got another twenty and you can lately. Yeah so that's the thing is with those fears you know. If we've learned we can learn them to identify them so we can go. Oh wait that's what that is. Yeah that's why i said to you last week. It sabotages you because you're not. You're not even aware there. Yeah you keep doing the same things over and over again. That don't work right. So it's like beating your head up against the wall until you have it like brought to your awareness going most of the time you have to have when it is when you're first starting to identify some of these core fears that you need somebody on the outside to be like. Oh well. that's the stem. What is the root of that like you have to take people back. Read right and i love that you said because the times that you get an i call it a trap the times you get caught in a trap or something. This really sets you off pushes your button glue and its behaviour. It's not a person could be kids. Put the dishes in the sink or whatever but it's not them it's their behavior typically that means that there's a real fear at the bottom of that you're stop and you don't know why but if you look at it and i love doing that with people those in name a trap and just they don't even know i'm doing it when we get down to what it is and it's like oh that's why you don't know until you know and then when you yet the name it so you containment. You can't do anything about it until your acknowledged so. I love that you said that. Yeah absolutely thank you. Thank you so you hit bottom and again. I want to acknowledge you because it's really easy to stay there. Let's just say that you've gotten all above sleeping on your friends couches in being somebody's house where you're you're floating along and you've got your own space but you could have stayed in that kind of everything's terrible. I've lost everything mindset and not ever gone anywhere else. What was it for you. That really allowed you to see out of the dark hole in the abyss into the light again. First of all. I wanted to go to mexico and sell tacos on the beach. I was like here. i understand that. That's right what cut me out of it. Yeah i think when somebody said to me well. You closed that chapter. Now you can write but is your next chapter and you can write it. 'cause now you're not tied to anything that's well you know. I can't really do that because i have this and so i had a clean slate clean slate. I had no dead. I had nothing because everything was paid for it and done and gone. So that's what kind of got me excited. That how i really can create from nothing with that freeing for you it really was. It really was especially because my kids were grown. That would have been different. So i gotta acknowledged that find kids at home and work trying to live off macaroni and that would have been hard but it was freeing like i said i had zero debt. Everything was paid for. And it's almost like. I had a blank canvas that i could i can create and what i got from. That also is looking. I'm not alone right. So what did i learned from this. That can help others. And i didn't actually set out to help others. I mean. I wasn't like i'm going to turn this into a program. It wasn't that it was trying to provide a living and i owe the media in austin. I'm probably a quarter million dollars still to this day. I don't know what the balance was in luckily in texas. You don't have to declare bankruptcy. I went to bankruptcy attorney. And he was like you don't have to. He said you can just dissolve the business. That's why aren't llc dissolved. The business out it will send certified letters businesses closed. And i said well. When i start making money i'm gonna pay everybody and of course you're going to say that because that's who you are and he said you're not because your whole life will be trying to make up for something that its business it happens and so my difficulty was i'm in the media advertising business and i couldn't buy media so it's not like i could go out and be an ad agency again right. So that crimped or doubt is that every client. I called every clientele him what was going on and every one of them was extremely supportive. And even dr horton homes. We've had them worked with them since ninety. I'm sorry to two thousand nine. I think after called him told them all that the called me like three months later said okay. We have a new campaign. We need bubble blind. Remember i'm not a ad agency in the mirror and they're like okay. Well we'll figure it out and everybody kept doing business. So i had one of my key. People she opened a media buying so i would do creative. She do the media buying so. That's how we figured out that side of it. Yeah we'll essent amazing. I have so many questions i want to ask you. Let's circle back really quickly to the course you mentioned the gentlemen took outwitting fear. Course talk about that a little bit. We fear as humilation of things discovery office every month and discovery for a nonprofit and so it's pieces of that it's pieces of things i've learned from friends. It's pieces from my experiences at you know so i took a bunch of different things and put it together and what i love about. It is that it's only about an hour long. It doesn't take long but it immediately. A half people identify something that pushes the buttons. And then we go through the process of getting down to really. What the core fear is. And what. What do you do when you when you figure it out and it's beautiful i love about it. Is that people. Tell me that they if something comes up they go and they pull it they they do it again and sometimes it's the same fear sometimes. It's different fear cool. That would be really helpful for our audience. If somebody was interested how would they access that. Just outwitting fear dot com. Okay they can either get it. Through lisa beth. Thomas dot com. But we'll stick with outwitting fear dot com and if they put in the promo code podcast. We'll get ten dollars off. It's ninety seven dollars. Kept it from the price of a daikin. Okay pair of shoes. Because i figured. I could walk away from fear. It's this my way of walking away. From fear is this course and so and then also on their if they don't want the course we just i just did a video on five waste outwit fear of money and it's about eight minutes long so they can grab that off their to yeah executive are powerful and i would encourage everybody to take a look at this because it sounds like just based on some of the work i've done over the years to it. Sounds like a really powerful way to see where you're limiting beliefs are and to get another level of them. Absolutely i love is that is when a fear comes up. And he doesn't mean it goes away now. I know what it is yet. And david mike we get in an argument or something comes up. I say to him. I got to think about it. Is this my stuff that i think is that fear of something or just pissed at you and then we'll be like now. I'm just pissed at you and laugh and go well. it's just always think it's your side like manna. But one of the defining moments for me was trust. I had so much distrust. And i know that's big for people is distrust especially when you come out of a very hurtful relationship and one day i was. I was at austin. David was at his house. And i might distrust. I kept accusing him of things and questioning. Everything You know sure you were there. I mean whatever. I don't remember what. I was just being a jerk and i remember stopping dead in my tracks in this phone. Call this conversation and said oh my. Gosh i'm looking at you through. My crack. lenses of my hurts cleanses broken. And that's not fair to you. Realize that that i was judging him and accusing that he had nothing to do with. But i was carrying that forward looking at him through my hurts and right then and there is when i had i did a defining moment of drew a line in the sand and i said i have to stop this and figure out how to how to stop it in what you asked me that earlier. What was it that was it. I think that was it. I hadn't thought of that. I was like i have got to stop doing this because i'm gonna lose this great relationship. I got to figure this out right. That was my defining moment. I'm so glad you asked that. Now i know that was my defunding cool. Have to figure that out. Yeah we'll just a true testament of who you are in being able to look at that and see like this is the crack lands and it's not accurate so much easier to blame everybody else. Yeah now and so. I'm judging you not but you for example of something that happened to me in the past and you weren't even there. Yeah but i'm putting you in that box so that was a big deal for may. So that's why i said once. I figured out how to figure out my core fears when they come up now. There's times that. I jump into them and think about him and get out before anybody even knows i've gone. Is that it. And if it does come up i literally saved on. Hey you haven't worked for me in the past. Never mind right a important to kind of talk here yourself like that like acknowledged that like open. Hey you're there and you're no longer in control now. Absolutely you know we were talking on the phone last week. About how and business rambo's fears just mess with your head whether you're an entrepreneur whether speaker if you're in sales especially and we're all in sales. Yeah i when. I dive into that a second. I want to circle back to another question. That is kind of nagging me to you said once you start telling everybody what was going on for you. Everybody's started talking to you about their own stories. What was going on. Has that created a place for you to start asking for help. More and to let people can see through more transparent lines absolutely because there's nothing to hide right so i really am very very transparent. What's going on and it's changed my relationships with my friends. 'cause they do to. Its open that up. We can talk. Yeah and an incredible honesty. Authenticity to amazing. So let's switch back to the limiting beliefs really stopping people in business and can show up in any place in anywhere. How do people overcome that. While can i ask you a question. Yes i mean you work with how many thousands of women probably hear that and do. They even know that they're limiting belief for they just are stuck in. They don't know why sometimes both i'm going to say fifty fifty by the time for a couple of sessions and may not least some of their limiting beliefs. Because i start calling him out on an immediately re ask your question. How can limiting beliefs stop people in business whether speaking or anything just even like i run into entrepreneurs who don't want scale A certain point because they believe that they're going to have to put so much more time or it's going to be so much harder to have a bigger business than realizing that the right team in systems and processes it's actually gets gets easier delegate a lot more yeah i. I had a woman told me that she hurt. Her fear was being more successful than her parents so she kept her business down. 'cause she didn't wanna embarrass her parents by being more successful business. The big one. I we were just about the other day that this woman was telling me that if something was wrong financially. Let's say a check was not accurate. Amount client was late and payment. How i don't wanna make a mad gonna ask them for the money you know. They'll pay me when they can. While when you have bills you have employees and you have your own things and then it's not standing up for yourself. Yeah speaking up sales big one for sales. If you've got the fear of not being good enough or not being worthy you know how hard it is to pick up that phone and make those sales calls or follow up. You can justify your way out of anything. Yeah opt out in the conversation just not even make the author offer decided that they're not gonna say yes. Yes so it does. And that's where going forward. I was allowing my partner to to do that. My husband to do that. I wouldn't speak up. I wouldn't say hey disagree with that. Hey you know. Because i was like i don't want wanna rock the boat. There's already tension. You know. And i would i would justify and i would avoid and again. I am mcqueen of it if i don't see it it's not gonna happen so i would avoid it. I didn't want to be that person anymore. You and here's the baggage is. I couldn't blame anybody anymore. It was the perfect out. Could blame him for all. That's why that happened. That was his fault. Well now now that i think the only downfall having that clean slate is there. Nobody left and you nearly have to be accountable. Only to yourself. Yeah so. I don't like that craft exactly but it's it is i think the more were in denial of that. It gets in our way it really does i. Mount of freedom that i have felt is i. I don't think i've ever felt that. And i am truly myself. I'm creating a life. That i choose and i speak my mind. I speak it lovingly. And i it. Oh do all those things. But i'm not worried i'm not fearful and when it does pop up like i said i go. Yeah okay. I don't push it down because i know when you push things down. They surfaced like being being being being the other ways. So i just put it away. I got it over there. Yeah dawson let's move into where you're at today right. You have your new company your name you just signed new client. That is super exciting to data. Today we had to push this podcast because yes. Yeah so. I've many fingers of many projects like you were saying when we jumped onto. Say hello you get so many things going on. So i'm still doing lot of marketing and advertising. That's just been my. I've had an ad agency and been doing the business for thirty years of doing more projects. I don't have employees anymore. I don't have the office anymore but the team still works together just on a contract basis so doing a lot of that. Then i'm working with a company called curve. Which i'm very excited about. They've created technology that makes video shot boat. And so i'm working with them on projects with were pitching triggered and cabela's and anew direct sales company up called mason grow farms out of tennessee where you can watch their video but you can buy while you're watching so your glasses. If i was watching it. And i like your glasses i can click on your glasses a permanent a shopping cart right there or to take me right to where i combine them. Yeah it's very cool. Mary twenty second century not even twenty cars very cool technologies. i'm working with them on several different videos. Long form content speaking my outwitting fear courses doing extremely well and then doing a lot of speaking obviously zoom right now. But i'm so excited to get back out there so yeah so i speak on outwitting fear. I speak on marketing. People talk about marketing. And but it's just so fun. Because i love having employees and i loved having the office. We had the great living room where we'd all sit and brainstorm man. It's nice you know wh when everybody was making more money than me at times you know this is really face not to have that five thousand dollars a month ago to rent you know or out. Yeah now there's a certain freedom from having contract people. I think the really cool thing is he. You can hire amazing in contractors to build your business and scale it with that you know really get to meet great people on. I mean. I think fantastic relationships with them. There's things right now direct digital marketing and social media. I don't wanna learn and i'm sixty one years old. I you know. I wanna speak and have fun and do the things that i wanna do. I don't wanna learn a whole new thing. So i love being able to go. Hey you know. Let's bring this partner on for this project. They can handle that. I have to learn at all i. It is really nice. Yeah let me show my best self fund to support me and get there so yeah. I totally agree with you and again. I'm so excited about the outwitting fear course because it sounds like you sent me links not had chance to do it yet but it sounds like to such a perfect opportunity to start uncovering those those fears and starting to bring that awareness. And even if you've done some of this work before. I mean this is an ongoing thing. It's not something you just master one tries so you can get that next level right and you take as you know you take a nugget from here and a nugget from their own. Yeah my podcast. I forgot about that too then. I said that nugget. Because i'm doing a courageous unstoppable. You podcast that launch. Probably about two or three weeks and it's just very short race. How nuggets from outwitting fear from experiences. And i'm going to have guests come on as well and share their own nuggets again. Just something you can take away and go. Oh that works on the doesn't work for me but just quick ideas. We'll be like five eight minutes long road. Let's put both the course and the cat cast links and the show notes so that people can connect with you. That way anywhere else that people can find you. Where's the best location. Yeah the end. The podcast isn't ready at. But i'll let you know what it is so that we can add that later. The least about thomas dot com or linked in to pretty easy name. Its lease about one word thomas. Oh i'm pretty easy to find. Yeah that's awesome. I'll be thank you so much for being on today. I feel like we could talk forever. I don't really get into the nitty gritty details of fear. And then just everything else so like. It's been really great to have you here. Well thank you like. I said you are. You're a leader in all of this and really lazing the trail and helping so many people. So thank you for letting me be a small small part of your success. You're welcome and everybody listening. We'll see you next week with another amazing leadership story. Thank you so much for being. A listener of the tribe of leaders podcast. I am so grateful for each and every episode that you tune in and listen to and i hope that you get a ton of value that you can implement starting today and i do have just a quick favor. If you wouldn't mind hopping onto where is that. You listen to podcasts. And leave us a rating and review. It would help us tremendously. So that the tribe of leaders podcast can be found more easily and help inspire other entrepreneurial leaders.
Pandemic stress pushing some doctors to breaking point
"Throughout the nineteen eighty s strange phenomenon was sweeping north america. They were in a panic and like people in a panic. They want solutions allegations of underground satanic cults torturing and terrorizing children. The thing is there were no satanic cults preying on children and nearly thirty years later the people touched by it. All are still picking up. The pieces isn't a work of fiction. This is a work of history satanic panic available. Now this is a cbc podcast covid. Nineteen has been incredibly demanding healthcare workers. The recent death by suicide of quebec doctor sent shockwaves across candidates medical community. Dr corinne dion was known as a dedicated and caring. Er doctor and grabby quebec. Her sister spoke with the cbs's rosemary barton on sunday. He knew that as she was more stress than usually as she was not able to sleep very well. She knew that if she didn't sleep well. I was more difficult for her to work. She was very close to her family in earth sister and mother. So it's on because she didn't talk about that but it was too much stress. The sister of dr indian who died by suicide a month ago. A second doctor also died by suicide in quebec just last week. The suicides are raising concerns about the toll. The covid nineteen is taking on canada's medical frontline. Joining me are dr rod. Limb director and section chief of the pediatric emergency department at the children's hospital in london health sciences centre in london ontario. Dr mall rosny is a psychiatrist and head of service for mental health and addictions at joseph brant in burlington ontario. And dr jillian. Horton is in internal medicine and medical educator based in good morning to you all. It's great to have you here. dr horton. I want to start with you. What was your reaction when you heard about the death of dr deal. Well thank you not for having us to talk about this today. you know it's sickening And that is the most visceral reaction. I think for myself in any other physician hearing about this but the second part is i am so sorry to say. I am not surprised. I think most of us Stepping back. you know to almost a year ago. Basically looking into the situation as it was evolving. We could see that with medicines pre existing issues around mental health and workplace culture that this pandemic was going to be very big trouble for an already struggling fashion. There are a number of things in there that i want to go further into but just briefly before we do that. Dr lim your reaction to to death of Dr deal yeah. I want to echo what Dr houghton was was was saying that Unfortunately this is not surprising. the fact that we've been dealing with Some quite a bit of unhealthiness within our profession even prior to the pandemic but this Any any losses in absolute tragedy. No for for fellow birdseed doctors. We've taken this pretty hard For all accounts that i can see she's just a an absolutely remarkable person mom and imposition. And we're we're devastated by loss and dr rasmi for you. I mean in some ways this hits close to home in hits close to home for for members of your team and your own region as well. yeah matt Certainly in the halton region There's also a recently up nursing staff member that Die by suicide as well. I think predominantly the reaction in addition to what dr horton and unlimited said Is anger a lot of us are angry at the system. Why are we left holding the bag like this And we're devastated and we need to make some changes. Can you tell me more about that. Anger used the phrase holding the bag. What do you mean by that. Well i think it goes back to Banska depiction That he donated to southampton general hospital in the uk. This picture of this young kid holding a nurse superhero. It's called the game changer. And it was literally a game changer for healthcare providers because the amount of stress that we all put on ourselves healthcare providers going into the profession is the same stress. That's really crushing us. Focus on burnout and resilience. What do we know about how prevalent that is in your profession. Doctor s me. Why think as healthcare providers in general it's it's It's omnipresent but i'd minima. Cma have looked at some numbers couple years ago. I in terms of physician surveys in the estimated around thirty percent of physicians are going through. Burn out I would say it's much higher than that and certainly post pandemic at a minimum We're looking at fifty percent. I would say the majority of healthcare providers are feeling out and it's important to really understand what burnout is so we're talking about exhaustion. We're talking about increased cynicism and we're talking about a general feeling of lack of efficacy and all of those elements to be present. I would say over half is that. Would you feel dr lim in the er. You're right there. I mean that's the front door of this. Pandemic in many ways is what dr rasmi described. What is felt in your emergency department. These days it's interesting in. We just did a study. Prior to the pandemic and Eighty six percent of doctors in canada working adults where. We're one of the worst Health professions in in In canada In place during the pandemic at least early on because we have a renewed sense of purpose part of the pandemic. We had so much bed law and so much System problems that it was hard to feel like. We're doing good for the patient During the early phases We actually had a little bit of a galvanization at a a and a calling. That was that was very inspiring But through this period of time now to the second wave almost a year into this Absolute fatigue has set in and absolutely We're we're absolutely crisis. Dr horton talked. Read off the top about the workplace issues. You've written a memoir. That's coming up this fall and the title of it. I think speaks anyways so the conversation that we're having which is we are all perfectly fine. Tell me a little bit about the workplace that would exist that the conditions in the workplace that would lead not only to the conditions that you're describing but also to a stigma in addressing what's happening yeah The book is actually coming out this month by flu it So happens that topically. It feels very very relevant. It was of course. Certain pre pandemic You know our workplace culture. As doctors limon dr rasmiya hinting at there are a lot of very deep-rooted problems And one of them. You know we've alluded and we've heard a lot during this pandemic about this idea of physicians superhero. You know. We have a a long history in our profession of pressing are physiologic means in the name of training so working through extreme and unwise and unsafe sweep deprivation when i was a intern and a i routinely did thirty six hour shifts and many of our residency programs. Those kinds of things are still not really that unusual we've superficially made some moves to improve that And we also have a real culture of you know that here always has a dark side to right because if you are responsible for the good things then you're also responsible for the bad things so when your patients have a bad outcome even though we know that most medical errors and complex Problems in the health system are due to failures a number of levels when you're framework in your sort of template is to be taught to think of yourself as superhuman or hero within those things you must own them to and you can just imagine this stigma sort of cross purposes that create. All of this tension were physicians to talk about feelings to talk about mistakes to complain to identify that they are struggling with some of those conditions. The needing sleep meeting food meeting rest periods and then once we start to talk about it in the mainstream and the way that is becoming so much more common. Now it's actually through. I think the questions of people who are not part of medical culture that it becomes obvious us how bizarre and how absurd dysfunctional those aspects of our culture really are now this really interesting because those of us outside of medical culture would turn to you as the doctor. When i'm feeling stressed out with you know something's wrong you go to the doctor. And you're diagnosed. What is behind the inability or the unwillingness and perhaps again. That goes back into that stigma in a doctor. Heal thyself in some ways is the phrase that gets tossed around the the assumption might be doctors would take care of themselves. What's behind that inability to do that. We're taking care of yourself is actually a skilled. And i think we've seen one of the positive things in the pandemic as we've seen a lot more discussion around the concept of you know how to sell soon. Look after your own needs. Identify your emotions but in medical school not only do we not train people to have more skills in that area. I mean some programs better for example. dr rasmussen. Psychiatry probably spent a lot more time engage in this kind of work than the average position. But you know at the same time a lot of our culture. I talked about repression of physiologic. And there's also a strong culture of repression of emotional needs so we have a lot of role modeling when a person is becoming emotional because they're either Distressed from the outcome of the case or something just very difficult or they're just having a normal human reaction to facing tragedy in an emergency department or on a medical word you know. Sometimes those physicians especially during their formative years of training are given. This horrible advice don't show emotion. Don't cry don't you know go there. And it's the worst possible recipe that you can imagine four fast forward twenty years later for being an emotionally intelligent emotion. Y- tuned practitioner with good self regulation around the world. More than eighty women have accused peter nygaard of crimes ranging from rape to sex trafficking far exceeds jeffrey epstein. He far exceeds bill cosby. He exceeds anything that i think our worlds as seen so far a pattern of predatory behavior spanning half a century nygaard denies it all but now he faces criminal charges. This poor man. He would have been in jail decades ago. He hid in plain sight. Evil by design available now on. Cbc listen or wherever you get your podcasts. You know you're smart funny friends who always seem to have the best celebrity gossip. I'm talking about the ones who always know. We should be watching or reading or listening to or what have you can pick their brains every week. Pop chat is a brand new podcast but does exactly that and feels like spending time with your best friends. So join me alouine mood. And a panel of the smartest culture. Critics that i know as we dissect the discourse but also have a great time doing it. Dr asked me what are you know. But that about about that. Stigma that exists that would prevent Physician from speaking to even seeking help for things like stressor verno or depression. Yeah i all points by artur or well taken very accurate. And i will definitely by a one of the first copies. I you know. i'm gonna up to that I i think that there's a couple of things number. One are actually not so bad in terms of taking care of their medical health. So if you look at the data were we've seen enough disease and a pathology to take care of our medical fitness and wellbeing. Were not so good in terms of psychological wellbeing we do it lousy job of promoting psychological p and i think it's at grassroots issue. This is endemic to The very stark right from the get. Go when you're being interviewed in medical for medical school You're you're asked about things that inevitably lead to you being vulnerable to burn out and it's important to understand Burnout doesn't necessarily lead to suicide. But burn out is the royal road towards things like depression and anxiety which then puts you at much higher rate of completed suicide is. There's something about the system itself in terms of what the system demands the stock productivity in the medical field but in some ways. That's you hear that from doctors as well that the system itself is shaped so that there isn't the opportunity to take that breath. There isn't the opportunity to step back because of the demands that are put on you in that position. Is that fair to say dr azmi. Absolutely i mean if you look at the predictive factors on what can lead to burn out and interact complete. The suicide insomnia And lack of sleep. In general quality sleep is a major predictor. And that's that's kinda built into the system if you burn out itself as a systems issue eighty percent of burnt out. It's it's estimated is from a system issues how organizations are built and so our our listeners might be saying well so what who isn't burnt out but the reality is that physicians as a whole are twice more likely to be burnt out as a career Than other in other jobs. Dr lim right on the front lines you would see so much of you. Know the the sharp edge of this pandemic and one of the things we've heard from physicians of course of You know the last. Several months is around the issue of guilt. The idea that you can't save everyone. How does that factor into the the stress of the current moment. I think that's an an excellent point in and from what what i was reading with With dr dionne I think Guilt of not being able to go back to the front lines was was also a contributing eating a factor as well much like the position in the in the states earlier on independent who who had also taken her life And i suspected that hero analogy of the dark working had mentioned. You know heroes. Don't ask for help So you know. I think it's the combination of of the stigma lack of time lack of access. These are all just such an important factors You know the guilt of being on the front lines with your with your colleagues trying to help to be you know during the pandemic these are all routes such important factors that That play into this And we just need to start having frank discussions around the way we perceive ourselves and the unwillingness to ask for help The the survey that was mentioned You know it showed that we were very willing to hear about a colleague who needed help. Four out of five of us would be extremely happy to help a colleague who was in distress That survey felt that down. The only one in five of us would actually ask help if if it was needed. So there's there's a an obvious evidence of stigma right there. Dr houghton to resume used this phrase psychological p. p. e. which i think is really powerful. What do you want to see. In terms of a shift of the culture to address doctors mental health and to dr lim's point be willing to have those at the very least the conversation but then move beyond the conversation to ensure that the stress in the burn out that dr facing particularly in a moment like this doesn't go beyond the edge. Well just as dr raspy said you know. We know from the literature on physician burnout. That about eighty percent of the issue is largely secondary to factors outside of our media control. And that tells us that. In order to begin to meaningfully address. Those things evil are organizations and our leaders and the institutions where we work have to begin to make meaningful commitment to enacting the changes that would really impact. You know not only The quality of our work environment but begin to have that long term transformative impact on the culture so some of those things include You know significant changes around things like call schedules. How long you actually expect people to work. How frequently you expect them to work weather There are other people who can be doing some of the work that those physicians for example are typically Doing sometimes clerical work sometimes. It's you know simple things. Like writing prescriptions. We also need meaningful top down conversations about the experience of physician sharing Y- our personal experiences with the difficulties that we've had during the course of our careers because that begins to impact the younger generations. And then i mentioned that you know there's this twenty percent of things that are under our control and for me personally over the years most recent here i found that really helpful and actually quite impactful in my own life as a clinician to engage with very high quality evidence based programs. That will allowed me to develop you know some different skills for working with Some of the immediate stresses in the workplace environmental skilled like mindfulness but again clinically tested. So not a lunch hour. Seminar taught by somebody with no connection to medicine but a journey down To a program at a university that works specifically with physicians and teaches them to teach those skills to others Connections with community you know are an intimate part of that. So anything that we learn in isolation probably won't be impactful. We have a lot of programs in the literature that showed that they help Some of our distress and rebuild the fabric of our medical communities talking And there are a lot of programs like that exists under different names but the same basic thing that they do is bring people together. And begin to normalize some of our experiences in in discussion. Dr resume do feel as though the resources are there to help. Physicians through this They're getting there. I think if as a this is a system solution. That's needed right so i would encourage organizations health organizations across the country to consider Appointing chief wellness officers having committees in place to address the issue of Burnout stress depression within their constituents And to make sure that it's a h- a wholesome program not just lip service to to wellness And great now. I think the the canadian medical association has A wellness hub. You can reach out to Different provincial measures are in place. But we're still behind the ball. Dr lim just in the last minute or so that we have. How are you taking care of yourself in this. I haven't had to spend. I've spent more time Acting and really try to To to be honest with myself with doing more than any time in my career. I think you know we're we're pretty built It hardens maybe Through our training but chronic stress body is not very good at dealing with I think you know it's sometimes it's pretty disheartening. When you read the news you see a lot of the strife and the unity is gone and You know people Are not doing following public. Health measures including people in power It's hard not to get disheartened and it just so important to just kind of To to find things that are gonna fill your bucket up and allow you and your team to keep doing the work. That you know is so important for the community And to to look out for others attend to actively. Make sure that we're all doing well as part of a team So we're doing the best that we can but this has been pretty tough. I'm grateful to have had the opportunity to speak with you all about this. This is really important in. Thanks for the work that you're doing and take care of yourselves. Thank you for my doctor. Rodilen director and section chief of pediatric emergency department at the children's hospital in london at the london health sciences centre. Dr oshawa rasmi is a psychiatrist and head of service for mental health and addictions at joseph brant hospital in burlington ontario. Dr julian horton is a specialist in internal medicine and a medical educator in winnipeg in her memoir comes up this month. it's called. We are all perfectly fine. It's a memoir about burnout. If you are experiencing mental distress the candidate suicide. Prevention service takes calls twenty four hours a day seven days a week. There number is one eight three three four five six four five six six again. One eight three three four five six four five six tomorrow. We will talk about the perspective of this from nurses for more. Cbc podcasts go to cbc dot ca slash podcasts.
S&P, Nasdaq Close at New Highs
"The end of the article isn't the end of the story. The Journal podcast goes behind the scenes with reporters and covers everything from the Mormon Church's one hundred billion dollar fund to Corona Virus Listen to the Journal on spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. This is the closing bell brief for Friday August twenty. First I'm Charlie Turner for the Wall Street Journal Major US Stock Index has finished higher with the S&P NASDAQ closing at new record highs the Dow. Jones industrials. Rose one hundred and ninety points to close at twenty seven, thousand, nine, thirty, the Nasdaq composite gained more than forty six points. The S&P Five Hundred Rose Eleven shares of tech companies led the way today as they did all week and as they have for much of the year, apple stock rose more than five percent today after a market value past two trillion dollars earlier in the week and Tesla which surpassed two thousand dollars a share yesterday added another two point four percent. Housing has been a bright spot in the economy with sales of previously owned homes surging in July homebuilders Lavar Dr Horton each gained three percent. And Television Star Laurie Lachlan and her husband fashion designer Muslim ojea newly were sentenced to prison in connection with a nationwide college admission. Scandal Laughlin received two months in prison and a one hundred fifty, thousand dollar fine. GIANOLA received five months and the two hundred fifty thousand fine. We have more on today's market activity and market analysis on wsj.com and the WSJ APP.
Stitch Fix Soars
"It's tuesday december. Eighth welcomed the market full. I'm chris sale with me today. Mr jason moser good to see my friend patty housing. We got automotive. We're going to start with the stock of the day. And that is shares of sticks up forty five percent today reported profit in the first quarter. That was a surprise. first quarter. Revenue was ten percent higher than a year ago. That's good that doesn't strike me as the kind of revenue growth that would spark a stock shooting up forty five percent. I'm assuming at least part of what we're seeing. Today is short-covering yeah i mean. I think that's a safe assumption. And i was gonna say you're forgiven if you're wondering why the market is offering up such a strong reaction today to really really what we're just kind of okay results. This is a massive short squeeze in according to cap. I q data thirty. Seven percent of the float. Going in today was was being sold short. That's a lot. that's that's over. A third of the shares that float on the open market. And anytime you anytime. You have something like that. I mean you'll see these types of things happen if it certainly wanna company beats. Expectations are brings results. That are a little bit better than the market was thinking or expecting. It seems like it's decent business. I know that it's one that can really capitalize on some massive market opportunity. because frankly it's totally replicable. and we've seen that with other retailers and similar offerings. I mean. I've never used it so i can't speak to it as they service. I think the big question really for this company. And i mean this good quarter. Congratulations to them. It's nice to see to start getting some love today. But the big question really is going to be conducive stained these tailwinds. The covert has created this year. I'm not. I'm not so sure with that. I mean a anecdotally. I speak with people who've used the service and they stopped using it. They just didn't find it to be all that compelling i'm just not sure about that long term relationship with the customer and that's what really matters because you pay a lot to acquire these customers to get them to use your service if you're not keeping them that becomes a real problem down the line and so it it's it's really important to be able to keep those customers. And that's the big question. I think for investors today. I don't know that. I have a firm answer but i kinda feel like maybe there isn't the same sense of loyalty with something like stitch fix based on what we've seen up to this point there have been countless examples of startup businesses. That get some success. Get some growth. Get some attention and then someone will throw out the the what if like well. What if what if his followed by the name of a big tech company and it's essentially like well what if we heard this for years about net flicks. Well what if apple decides to go into original programming. It's like well they could haven't yet we. We'll see that's going so so. I'm loath to sort of pull the same trigger with sticks sticks like well. What if amazon decided they wanted to get into that. Said it is one of those things i do have in the back of my mind and and part of it is because i live close to a whole foods and i have noticed over the past year that when i go into the whole foods they have got their own not clothing but they've got their own sort of meal kit section of the whole foods and every time i walked it. I think to myself boy. Are they amazon. Just gearing up for a push to take over the blue apron market that sort of thing you and i have talked before about the investments that bryan cornell in particular has made a target in peril. I'm not saying that they're direct competitors but you know if we're gonna play the what if game target seems like a likely candidate to to go into this space i mean it's it's it's a tough space and i think it's a credit to katrina lake that she's built the business that she has to this point but to you know to the point. You're making. I do wonder about how high the ceiling is. I agree that i think is really that i think is my trepidation and as far as this is an investment because i don't see this massive market opportunity because there's so many potential competitors at their target certainly could be one. I mean amazon is is that they're doing their own stuff and fashion. Walmart is is getting into that line of work as well and you got all sorts of retailers that are coping with with the pandemic economy and going digital and omni channel and so it certainly not to say that stitch fix is a bad business. I mean it seems like it's a pretty decent will business but but it may be one where it makes more sense as part of something bigger. I mean i think it's really easy for a bigger retailer to add dynamic like this in really leverage the infrastructure in inventory that they already have But know the argument for stitch fix for for a lot of folks. I think is is the data side in in. Perhaps there's something there. I don't know it's it's fashion retail. I mean it's just a really difficult market and a ten percent growth for the quarter in revenue and customers is fine revenue per client was actually down. It is a constant juggling act with inventory and trying to understand the consumer and they. They're seeing some tailwinds that leisure for example and really shifted a lot of inventory. Think they settled a call. It was something like one hundred and fifty percent growth in leisure inventory because they saw these tailwinds because everybody working from home. And and just the nature of athleisure because people don't have to get dressed up to go to work so much anymore so just it is a very difficult business to manage over the long haul we've seen in a were up a little bit more meaningfully this quarter. It's not really high margin business in and again we go back to that apparel industry. It's just a very difficult space in. So i think beyond beyond the short squeeze that we see playing out here over the next couple of days or however long. This draws out again. I i go back to that question of. Is this something. Are they going to be able to sustain the tailwinds. They're feeling right now. Because if not again that revenue growth that ten percent you know. They're calling for twenty five percent for the year. They'd better deliver on that because that's certainly part of what's going on today. We'll just have to wait and see but but Certainly congratulations to them for for chalking up a decent quarter and and for getting a little love today in the market and anyone can obviously completely ignore the conjecture sort of threw out. They're like well. What if targeted like just put all that aside. You're absolutely right about the revenue at the end of the day. It doesn't matter who their competition. If ten percent revenue growth is is what they're getting. That's that is reason enough to be skeptical but to your point if they can deliver on the twenty five percent growth more power to them. Ads this move. Let's move onto toll. Brothers shares of the luxury homebuilder down seven percent. Despite the fact fourth quarter profits and revenue came in higher than expected. Me understand this. I mean mortgage rates are low demand for more living. Space is up. this is a luxury home builder. Why is the stock down. Well i is so this is a business where size matters in. We've seen that play out if you if you compare toll brothers to something like a. Dr horton you can certainly see the advantages in. India are horton's model just because it's so much bigger toll brothers as you mentioned a bit a bit of a more specific market in in that luxury home space a so so i think the market opportunity. Maybe is a little bit smaller. I think sell off today. Release evaluation thing. It was good quarter and frankly they painted it very the nice picture for further for the coming year. But just if you look back. Historically the multiple expansion has been really strong here for this company over the past several years in relation to the growth that they've been recording. So i i think there's there's more of it's more evaluation thing than anything else. I mean in the release. Ceo doug yearly noted that they're experiencing the strongest housing market. He's seen in his thirty years at the company. I mean that's that's strong language man. It's so yeah. I think it's really shaping up to be a good year for this business. I think it's just. It's a bit of a more specific market in the product that they're that they're putting out there but again to your point. I mean they're saying that they see. The housing market is strong as they've ever seen it. There are a lot of a lot of things coming together that it's making it a very robust market need. They saw nice growth for the quarter home. Sales revenues were two and a half billion dollars was up nine percent a homebuilding deliveries. Were up ten percent net signed contract values up sixty three percent contract at home up sixty eight percent. So they're seeing their seeing a lot of strength out there and they're benefiting from it. I think that really the valuation is what is what the source of the sell off. Today is if you just look at the multiple expansion. It really just hasn't kept up with the growth. This company is growing. It's growing modestly. But but it it's it's something where the valuation still has to make sense and this is housing right. It's not a business. It's not tesla. So i mean we got. We got to try to keep things in context. I guess you're saying it's not luxury home building as a service. I mean we could invent that business model today chris. I'm sure probably get that stock back to even for the day of we wanted to. But we're not going to do. We're not going to do with auto zone's first. Quarter profits came in higher than expected. Revenue look good same store sales. Were up more than twelve percent. Same question why. Why is this stock down. Seven percent. Well i again. I mean this this is coming off of a really stellar corner that they just recorded a few months ago. So i mean these. These businesses have actually autozone and o'reilly advanced to it to a lesser. They've been they've been pretty resilient through what's been a very difficult time for the retail space. And they don't have the same type of omni channel presence that is helping other retailers cope. So it's been a tough year but the longer the further out you look the more the more sense these these stocks make the performance gets a little bit better for me auto zone autozone and in a riley really the two companies that rule the space. And it's it's a pretty attractive space When you consider the number of cars on the road today and and that's going to continue to be the case. I think for for a long time to come. It feels like to me. You could call them the lows to riley's home depot so all zone is kind of that. I don't wanna say lesser competitor. Because that's really doing a disservice to to the to to lows success that lows has been witnessing in what marvin ellison has done there. But but i think that autozone is just riley's just a little bit of a stronger business. I think but to your point. Same store sales up. Twelve point three percent for the quarter. But if you just look back last quarter twenty two percent same store sales growth so it was a little bit. Maybe was a little bit underwhelming compared to what they charged last quarter. But i mean this is a business that keeps on doing. Just really good stuff. The commercial business continues to grow at double digit rates. Apple's ten percent for the quarter of seventeen percent a quarter ago. And i think sequential results are important to look at this year a lot of times. We're comparing things year over year but sequential results are more important this year because of what we've been going through coves just think it's always worth noting that stuff They're seeing some operating leverage in the model which is really nice. Traffic and transit. Actions were up a little bit of. They started restarted. The share repurchases. So they brought down the share about twenty percent over the last five years. But again you go back to that. Omni channel still just a tiny percentage of a business like this like below five percent. Maybe there's an opportunity for them in. Maybe maybe that would be something that could light a fire under the shares but respectable quarter in a difficult time historically. They've done a good job in terms of repurchasing their own stock and it is going to be interesting to see what twenty twenty one holds for autozone. Because you know as you said. They restarted that. If if more cars are getting back on the road and that is good for the auto parts business is more time on the road means more wear and tear generally good for business. But yep we'll see goes all right. Jason moser always good talking to you. Thanks for being here. Yes sir thank you as always people on the program may have interest in the stocks they talk about and the motley fool may have formal recommendations for against saddam by herself stocks sitting here. That's going to do it for this edition of market flurry. This show is mixed by dan. Boyd i'm chris hill forty years ago. We lost john lennon but fortunately is music and legacy live forever so rest in peace. John for weeks can fall strong. Show the because.
12.1.20 Mask mandates, COVID vaccines, and Classic Book of the Month
"The world at everything in it is finally made possible by listeners. Like me. I'm nate rights from lakeville minnesota and i direct the state's sentencing guidelines agency a few moments ago. I took advantage of the november match by becoming a first time financial supporter of my primary national new source. I hope you enjoy today's program. Good morning mask. Mandates are coming back in some places but enforcing them falls to police who have plenty of other things to worry about. You know we've got our hands full just dealing with the criminals we deal with now but vaccines could soon solve the mask problem. Talk with world's medical correspondent about the latest developments plus the classic book of the month. Christmas won't be christmas without any presence. Grumble joe lying on the rug. Dreadful to be poor side. Meg looking down her old dress. It's tuesday december. I this is the world and everything in it from listener supported world radio. I'm myrna brown. Nick eicher good morning up next kid. Comington has today's news. biotech firm. Moderna says its cororavirus vaccine is ready. The company is asking us and european regulators for the green light to start distributing the vaccine to the public elvin human services secretary alex as our said he expects the fda will grant an emergency use authorization. That'll ship within twenty four hours after fda approval and then really it's going to be up to our nursing homes or hospitals or pharmacies to get that dispense so it really could be within within days of fda approval. We'll start seeing vaccines and people's arms. A food and drug administration panel will meet on december seventeenth to review maderna's application one week after the committee reviews a pfizer application for its vaccine. Madonna got the final needed results over the weekend to submit its application. Tens of thousands of volunteers participated and it's clinical trial and of those who received the real vaccine than a dummy shot. Only eleven people tested positive for covid nineteen and none of those eleven got severely ill but derna chief medical officer. Dr tells zax said monday when i saw the final results last night. They came in a little bit earlier than we had a plan for Allowed myself to cry. For the first star. Madonna said with the shots effectiveness and good safety record. They meet the requirements set by the fda european regulators have also signalled that they're open to faster conditional clearance for the vaccine. The supreme court sounded skeptical. Monday of president. Trump's plan to exclude people living in the country illegally from the population count the government uses that census data to determine how many representatives each state sends to congress during the arguments solicitor general. Jeffrey wall argued. The president had that we some discretion to determine that at least some illegal aliens lack enduring ties to the states. One possibility is that the president might try to exclude emigrants now enters or those who have been ordered to leave the country justice samuel alito said. He can see an argument for that but if they're going for the bigger picture and trying to identify everybody who is in this country unlawfully that they can provide a partial answer to that he said was only a month left in the year. Trying to identify and exclude. Some ten million emigrants would be in his words. A monumental task just as amy conybeare. It was among several justices wary of the president's efforts to claim broad discretion over who to leave out of the count. She told white house counsel quote a lot of the historical evidence in long standing practice. Really cuts against your position. The court is fast tracking the case. Because time is running out. The census bureau is due to send the data. The president trump by december thirty first president elect joe biden and vice president-elect kamala harris received their first presidential daily brief on monday the classified briefing summarizes the most important and sensitive. Us intelligence also. This week biden announced the leaders of his white house. Communications team world's kristen. Flavin has more biden will have an all female senior communications team with kate. Betting field serving as director jen. Psaki a longtime democratic spokeswoman will be his press secretary both are veterans of the obama administration. Betting field served as communications director for biden while he was vice. President and sake was a white house communications director and spokesperson at the state department ashley. Itn who once led house speaker. Nancy pelosi's comms team will assume that role for vice president-elect kamala harris another obama administration alum corinne. Jon pierre will also join the team shall serve as harris's principal deputy press secretary reporting for world. I'm kristen flahavan. President-elect biden will likely wear a walking boot for the next several weeks after breaking his foot while playing with his dog is office. Said biden suffered the injury over the weekend and visited an orthopedist in newark delaware. On sunday. fractures are a concern. Generally as people age but biden's appears to be a relatively mild one at seventy eight. He will become the nation's oldest president when he's inaugurated in january. Iran is accusing israel of using electronic devices to remotely kill a top nuclear scientist most factories. A day founded the country's military nuclear program in the two thousands and iran held a military funeral in his honor on monday officials in. Tehran are now changing their story on how he died. Authorities initially set a truck exploded. And then a gunman opened fire on the scientists but now state tv claims investigators found electronic devices at the scene of the attack. That bore the markings of the israeli military industry. The new report claimed the attackers controlled the weapons by satellite. Israel has declined to comment but tehran suspects the country of killing other iranian nuclear scientists over the past decade. I'm kent covington and straight ahead vaccine safety and ethical concerns plus less cillers on communism and college students. This is the world and everything in it. It's tuesday the first of december twenty twenty glad to have you along for today's edition of the world and everything in it. Good morning. i'm myrna brown. And i'm nick eicher first up today. Means corona virus cases are surging around the world but help is on the way and soon several vaccines are set to hit the market in the next few weeks and more will soon follow. They are reportedly effective. But are they safe. And can christians get them without violating their pro-life principles. Well joining us now to help answer. Those questions is world's medical correspondent. Dr charles horton. Welcome back to the program. dr horton. Well let's start with these new vaccines. Trials have shown that they are a lot more effective than epidemiologist thought. They would be and that's partly because of the way they work. So can you explain. What an rn a vaccine is and how it differs from other vaccine's conventional vaccines are given in the forum. That's meant to make the immune system respond. You can give patients inactivated forms of a virus as with the injectable flu shot. You can give them what's called an attenuated or inactivated form of a virus as with the flu nasal vaccine or the are the measles mumps rubella vaccine you could give a different virus. That doesn't make people very ill but brings about antibodies to the real bug. You're trying to prevent. That's what the smallpox vaccine dead or you could give a toxoid and inactivated form of something toxic. Which is how the tetanus shot works here. It is something new. Instead of making the protein that the immune system is supposed to attack again usually with a lie virus or an inactivated virus. The vaccine actually has one's own body cells produce the protein so that the immune system can see it and learn to attack so have vaccine makers use. This are a process before in the lab. Yes it's one of those tools that's existed in some form for a long time but it hadn't come to the market yet. A lot of this relates to how the timeframe for vaccine development had worked up until now things happened slowly and over a course of years one of the advantages though of our any vaccine technology. If this works it will allow future vaccine development to happen much more quickly and it would let us respond to future threats in a much. More timely fashion Well we've gotten some questions about these vaccines from listeners. Who read some quite worrisome things about them online one claim is that they actually modify the recipients are in a so. How can we know these aren. A vaccine are safe. We should probably take a moment here to discuss the difference between dna and rna. Which is what's used in these vaccines those sound very similar. And they do work together but their roles are very different. Dna is in which god rights. Each person's genetic code cells don't make proteins directly from dna though i transcribe to what's called m. r. n. for messenger are a. And then they make proteins from the messenger a if you remember vinyl records. I know i'm dating myself. Here is like the aluminum master desk that they made with a lay. Now when you transcribe it to 'em it's like making a vinyl record from aluminum master disc using that information done to make proteins is like putting the record on a turntable and playing it. So here we're dealing with 'em rna. We're leaving the dna out of it so we can play that record but we can't make more copies of that and that's relevant here because it's not changing your body's genetic code which is your deanna. It's giving a new transcript. It's sort of putting a different record in the player if you will and then one that is gone. It's gone now safety wise. It doesn't have the track record of conventional vaccine designs and as with any development in medicine. It is not impossible for problems to crop up in the future but again changes. Genetic code are one problem that we don't need to worry about well. What about ethical concerns. Dr horton some of these vaccines. Use cell. Lines taken from babies killed in abortion. Are there some that. Don't the short answer. Thank god is yes one of the unique things about non replicating or any vaccines is. They actually don't have to use cell lines at all Whether they're ethically sourced or not. And according to the charlotte zero institute both of the leading marone vaccine's the moderna one and the phaser biontech one are indeed produced without cell lines. I do have to note here that the news is not as good for the oxford astrazeneca vaccine or the johnson and johnson ones. Which do use those unethical cell lines. Incidently outside of our na vaccines sonoko jessica and novak's are also according to the list that charlotte loser institute publishes the cell line called sf nine which is derived from insects as far as inactivated virus. Vaccines listeners. In the us are not likely to see those there from china but apparently all three of those do use a cell line. That's for monkeys so listeners. Overseas can also keep that in mind. Well dr horton before. I let you go. I wanted to ask you about cova tests. Are they getting more accurate. And what about at home testing kits. We've had something that was sold as at home testing kits for a while but they were really out home. Sampling kits. people would use the kits to get a saliva sample or a nasal swab which they would then send off to a laboratory. It did avoid needing to drive to allow her doctor's office but it was not a true in home rapid test. It was a test where people would get the sample. Put it in a package and then days later after it had reached the lab been analyzed. They would get a result what has come to market in the past few weeks a true test that does not go to allow users do a nasal swab put the nasal swab into a vial of reagents and then put the vile into a little battery powered tester. That's included with the cat and it looks for color change in the regent vile ask for tests becoming more accurate. This is one of those yesen new questions. Labs have developed better technology and last week. The fda approved an antibody tests that supposed to be both very sensitive and very specific over ninety eight percent for each in plain english. That means you're very unlikely to get a false negative or a false positive. That's the good news. The bad news is that if one gets a test it could be any of a number of different tests and labs. They're often using whatever they can get their hands on right now because there's such demand for testing often. Those are the older tests that have already made their way through the distribution system. In my area the positivity rate has often been in the fifteen to twenty percent range. And that means we're missing a lot of cases. We're just not testing enough people. The virus is spreading aggressively at this point. So i'm very thankful for the progress we've had on a vaccine looks almost miraculous to me. How quickly we have gone from. It would be great to have a vaccine to god willing. It looks like approval and distribution or just around the corner. I was reading recently about one manufacturer already chartering flights to ship doses out and i got an email from rite aid encouraging. Me to get my shot there when they got them. This is great news but one note of caution. The vaccine only works when it's given to people so we need to keep our mouths up and our guard up for now but the cavalry really does appear. Thank god to be on the way nasa except guard up. Well charles. horton is a physician in pittsburgh and world's medical correspondent. dr horton. thanks so much for joining us today. Run coming up next on the world and everything in it mask mandates when he enters the white house biden have a difficult time with at least one part of his corona virus response plan because it's built on the foundation of a nationwide mask mandate. He cannot legally do that. He would have to rely on governors to implement that requirement. And some already have done it with mixed results. World's kyle zimny reports colorado governor. Jared polis urged mask wearing for months after the start of the pandemic he finally instituted a statewide mask mandate in july. And that's why today. I'm signing an executive order. That's effective at midnight. Tonight that requires that every colorado age ten and up where a mask or face covering police pointed to evidence that a mandate would actually make more people wear masks but a week before making that announcement he admitted the statewide mandate was more like a request. So the state has minimal capability of enforcing a mask order for a mass ordinance to work it has to have the local buying meaning the municipal police that are under the command of a police chief in usually a mayor city council and in an unincorporated area county sheriff with the buy in from the commissioners so one of those county sheriff's is not buying in. He says it's not the police his job to enforce a public health order in this particular instance. What someone the governor issues one of these mandates what he's basically trying to do is convince the citizens that they should willfully Obey the mandate. That's steve rings. He's the sheriff of weld county in northern colorado. It's more conservative than many of its neighbors but its covid. Nineteen case count climbed dramatically november doubling in the first two and a half weeks and rims estimates about eighty to ninety percent of county residents are wearing masks on their voluntarily. Complying with the order. they just don't want to be the they don't wanna be threatened with being ticketed or arrested or anything like that remes argues. His department isn't supposed to enforce public health affairs. He's not alone. In believing that sheriffs from north dakota nebraska mississippi and many other states say the same even if they were to believe it's their duty to make people wear masks reams says it's not a priority. We've got our hands full just dealing with the criminal calls we deal with now. I don't see us putting a lot of prioritization into mask enforcement or a restaurant. Closures or anything like that removes faced a little criticism for his stance. Some weld county residents told him. They want deputies to tell their neighbors to wear masks or go inside but reams has also received significant support from his county and around the country and then nationally. I've gotten a lot of feedback through social media through Voicemails at work people saying. Hey thanks for what you're doing you're given you know you're giving my elected official An example to go by but even in places where residents object to a mask mandate local business owners. Want one graham county. Arizona has less than forty thousand residents. It broke for president. Donald trump by almost forty five percentage points. But last weekend the county's chamber of commerce sent a letter to its board of supervisors asking for a mask mandate if we don't get hold on the virus here in graham county we could lose the open status of our businesses. Remorse is the chambers marketing director. She had a baby this spring and she's personally struggled with the impact of the virus on her life stressful to be unsure and exposing your kid every single day. My husband's a professor. So he's already exposed every day to his students. Worse doesn't actually believe any agency would enforce a mask mandate thinking enforcement or a fine or anything like that would go over too well here in grand county. So then what's the point of having a mandate graham county is businesses desperately. Want to avoid a lock down. They believe a mask mandate would give them more authority to ask people to wear face coverings at least give businesses some more strength to say you know not only does our business require you to wear a mask. But there's a countywide mask mandate so we ask you to wear one. When you're in our business the positivity rate measures the number of people who get tested and have the virus in graham county. That's over thirty percents. Arizona recommends a full county shutdown. When that number crosses ten percents that could be devastating for businesses and morris's county well as the chamber we obviously want all of our our chamber members to be open and thriving and and you know bringing in their income for their families where a small community in americans like. Morris are frustrated with the impact of people without masks others like those in sheriff county. Don't want the government involved at all. It's just a point of frustration. This has been on for a long time and The citizens are frustrated with it. And so are we in law enforcement and we just wanna see an end. If president elect biden continues to push for a national mandate. He'll be waiting into the midst of this tension and no matter what he does as with every political move. Some americans won't like it reporting for world. I'm kyle's of nick. Additional support comes from samaritan ministries sharing is affordable and you can join today more at samaritan ministries dot org slash wounds from christian book. Dotcom christmas gifts that come from your heart at christian book dot com and from world helps christmas giving catalog. every dollar multiplies. Thirty three times to ship emergency aid to people struggling to survive the pandemic world. Help to slash podcast. Well we remain months away from normal with covid policy keeping us apart disconnecting us from important parts of our culture like museums and musicians but a creative mind from france saw an opportunity to put those two things together. Camille thomas plays classic works on cello in and on top of deserted museums around paris than she posts. The videos of the performances on the internet is beauty. She says is an essential food much more than just entertainment like netflix. Now that is no doubt true. So thomas seeks to symbolize the loneliness of musicians without the public and of museums without visitors and in her way. Thomas is silencing the silence gets the world and everything today is tuesday december. I thank you for turning to world radio to help. Start your good morning. I'm nick and myrna brown coming next on the world and everything in it. The classic book of the month this time reviewer. Emily whitten suggests an american novel. Almost everyone knows but as she explains in this conversation with mary record this classic is worth reading again and again well emily. I'm both happy and sad to talk with you today. I'm happy we get to talk about another classic book together. But i'm sad that it's our last book chat. I hear you'll be changing the format of your book recommendations for the new year. Now that's right mary. I'll still recommend my classic book of the month but after today my reviews won't be in the form of an interview they'll be features more like megan's movie reviews on the big advantage will be that i can spend more time interviewing authors and literary critics. Hopefully that means. I'll be able to dig up better insights and go deeper on our topics but cool. I will miss our chats. Mary well i will too but we'll find a way to keep up with each other right. Well let's get going with this month's recommendation. What book are we talking about today. Well how about a cozy feel good slightly. Christmas classic for the whole family sounds good. Tell me more well some may feel. I'm punching a little low today. When i recommend little women by louisa may alcott but the book offers a lot more entertainment and wisdom than you might remember and i'm not the only one who discovered that. Recently some of you may know credit gerwig produced a film version of the book that came out last christmas. Here's her speaking in a ninety second street y interview. I haven't read the book. Until i like since i've been like fifteen and then i read it again when i was thirty and i was. I couldn't believe it. I felt like it was so much stranger and more urgent and modern than i had remembered. There was all this stuff that i thought. I'd never heard the first time. And i instantly wanted to make it into a movie. I had an idea for how i wanted to do it. Mary i disagree with some of the ways gerwig interprets alcott. But i did resonate with her surprise at. Just what a wonderful classic this is i. I agree with that for those of us. Who haven't read the book in a while Why don't you remind us some of the basics character plot and that sort of thing sure. Little women tells the story of the march family and that includes father serving as a chaplain in the civil war. There's marmi the wise and generous mother and four daughters. who are the little women of the title. here's how alcott introduces them in the opening chapter this is from the pink classics audiobook version. Christmas won't be christmas without any presence. Grumble joe lying on the rug so dreadful to be poor side. Meg looking down at her dress. I don't think it's fair for some girls to have plenty of pretty things and other girls. Nothing at all added little amy with an injured sniff. We've got father and mother and each other said beth contentedly from a corner the four young faces which the file. Sean brightened at the cheerful words. Mary these characters portray the highs and lows of real family life. Such memorable ways. I i think the time. Amy burns joe's manuscript ticket back at her for a small slight or wind. Joe sells her hair to fund. Mommy's trip to see father in the hospital as loud as these characters are today. Though the funny thing is mary alcock did not want to write about them. Really she didn't know she actually group in concord massachusetts in eighteen hundreds and she revered serious transcendental writers ralph waldo emerson and henry david. Thoreau both of whom she knew. Personally and much young adulthood. She read books out of emerson's library so she really wanted to write serious literary works not morality tales for children but her editor a manning thomas niles asked her to write a book for young girls and after quite a lot of kneeling. She reluctantly gave it a try. Here's alcott biographer. Susan cheever speaking at harvard in two thousand nine. You know. within about three weeks she had finished the first part of little women. She didn't like it very much. Thomas niles didn't think it was too great. Either on thomas niles had a niece who got hold of the manuscript and was up all night but as the minute almost the minute. Thomas niles published the first part of little women in november The outpouring of letters admiration was eugen by christmas. Louisa may alcott was one of the best known writers in the world and one thing that helped alcott right so quickly. She based much of the story on her own family. She wrote about people and places she knew she also used journalistic style. She developed writing about her time as a civil war nurse so compared to contemporary works like the elsie dinsmore novels. Al qods crisp visual details and active characters. Make the story feel much. More lively and realistic christian critic g k chesterton would later say that her style was twenty to thirty years ahead of its time. Wow she was really a visionary sort of person. yeah exactly well. Final question emily. What should christian readers know about this book. Well i would say. Christians may wanna pay some attention to alcott's transcendental beliefs she rightly values self reliance and hard work but she also suggests that we can work our way into heaven. In contrast paul tells were saved by grace through faith in christ one final point. Mary feminist greta. Gerwig often claim joe's boyish nece and her desire for independence. Reflect modern feminist values. Not totally wrong. But i do think they missed the bigger picture. Little women displays the beauty of a vibrant loving family. And that's a divine institution. God created human families to point us to him as our father and to help us remember the home that he's preparing for those who love him you know so it's our story too. Yeah that's especially relevant today. I think when so many of us are separated from our families so it's a really good time to read about this family and then remember that we will be together again someday. So thanks for this recommendation. You're welcome mary. Happy reading for december. Emily recommended little women by louisa. May alcott for more classic book ideas just search for classic book of the month at world and everything dot org. Today is tuesday december first. Good morning this is the world and everything in it from missouri supported world radio. I'm ana brown nick. Idir conservatives have noted with alarm the rising popularity of communism with young americans world commentator and journalism professor. Less ciller says that hit disturbingly close to home for him. Recently i was googling alumni trying to track down people hadn't heard from in a while one name came back under a twenty thousand nine headline woman arrested as protesters clash the article described. Marxist group called the red guards marching in austin texas. Police charged woman in the group for assaulting a counter protester with quote a largest stick. One photo showed a guy curb with blood running down his face new. I thought that's ridiculous. Must be somebody else with the same name. But then i found a police mug shot. It was her the counter. Protestors a handful of young men styled themselves. The texas nomads. One nomad helpfully posted a video on youtube. It showed a few dozen chanting guards and vivid red masks and olive green jackets. The yelled we are unstoppable. Another world is possible. They waved soviet flags and signs of marx and lenin and mao at least two dozen bicycle cops hung around the edges. The march one big red banner said long live one hundred years of communism in the usa. The very flattering portrait of chairman mao himself didn't note the tens of millions of people. His regime murdered eventually. The red guards marched across the street and passed a right in front of the texas nomads. Taunting commenced then. A scuffle erupted along with some profanity. The cops closed in the camera. Tilted to show a blur of grass. And i'm squinting at my computer. Replaying parts trying to pick out my alumna. Supposedly she whacked nomad with assign poll. But you can't see who's who or who did what is that her. i'm thinking. That might be her. No well maybe. I wish i knew how my alumna ended up with a bunch of antifa. She was very sweet clients on her gig. Economy page now. Give her top marks for friendliness and service quality the idea that she allegedly bashed someone with chairman mao sign astounds me but it's a reminder that have lots of reasons for believing or not believing things sometimes perhaps people reject ideas. They learned as children after carefully considering the arguments more often i suspect they reject truth itself for reasons that have more to do with personal history than political history were logic. This student ever shared much with me. But i got the impression that growing up in a christian home had been difficult and sad. She had trying times at college too. I last saw her at an anglican wedding over a decade ago. Everybody stood in line to receive communion. She declined. I'm less sellers tomorrow. As the incoming biden administration puts together its economic team. We will talk about what that might mean in terms of policy. That's washington wednesday and we will meet a family of pastors from cuba. That and more tomorrow. I'm nick junior. And i on the world and everything in it comes to you from old radio. World's mission is biblically objective. Journalism that informs educates and inspires. Philippians reminds us. We are to press on toward the goal for the of the upper call of god in christ. Jesus i hope you'll have a great rest of the day and we'll talk to you tomorrow.
Effektivisera system, redovisning och administration. Patrik Stenberg (#150)
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Struggling with the Church
"By this john and today on. Theo cast we talking about the struggle with the modern church. If you've walked in and you feel like it's plastic it's cold. You felt disconnected. You look around and you feel like an alien. We want to talk about that and why we have those struggles stated a simple and easy way for you to help support. Theo cast each month is by shopping amazon through the amazon smile program. When you make a purchase through amazon smile a portion of the proceeds will be donated to our ministry to learn how to sign up. Just go to. Theo cast dot org slash. Give a new welcome to theo. Cast encouraging weary pilgrims to rest in christ conversations about the christian life from a reformed and i would dare say pastoral perspective today. Your host are justin purdue pastor of covenant baptist church in asheville north carolina and. I am john moffatt. Nostra grace reformed church in spring hill. Tennessee justin my friend. It is good to be with you this morning. We have a lot including a really good book to give away today. We do have a good book giveaway today. We'd like to be generous here. At the casts may crisis given us his own righteousness and said the least we can do is give people books That goes out of know. What christ righteousness is totally and liberating books about the christian life and the church and what those things might look like. Yeah so today. We're excited to give away a entitled ordinary by our brother and Dare i say even a friend of the cast michael jordan then on heart. We need mont again. We do and the subtitle of dr horton's book. Ordinary is sustainable faith in a radical restless world. It's a good book and a lot of good stuff. Contain their in so again we're pumped to give it away today. And as always the case we use our handy dandy. Software app called the wheel of names. What what a name. That is the wheel of names. Every time i say this really what it's called and we input all of our members names in there and asked hops ally takes a lot to spin the wheel and and we trust the lord rules in rains even over. Something called the wheel of names and this week. The winner is kevin alameda. I've probably just butchered your name. It might be kevin all mida No could be either of those kevin. I trust you're gonna know who you are. And what i mean to say and you're going to be innocent jane email for now your name correctly we'll send you an email and gives him instructions on how to claim this free book giveaway and then we will also be giving away another copy of ordinary via social media so today is wednesday as this podcast is releasing if you go to any of our social media platforms that would be twitter instagram or facebook. You will see instructions about how to enter yourself into the fray for this additional giveaway book and it includes i think like sharing the posts and tagging people and all that stuff the instructions are there for those of you who are social media types of failure cells of that and you might also win a copy of ordinary by michael horton and we will announce that winter tomorrow. Which will be thursday if you want to. Just buy that book because it's the first time you're hearing about it and it is going to be related to our topic today. They'll be a link in our podcast description on our website on your podcast. If you used link then focused will receive. A portion of that purchased goes to our ministry. So a way to support us and support michael morton which we totally recommend you. Do he writes a lot of good stuff. That's right we'll just in. Today is a conversation that you and i seem to have almost every week. We are trying to shepherd people that are coming into our context in our church and help them. I would say find out what is it. Looked like to find not only resting christ but truly rest within the community of christ which is the design of god says. Jesus died for the church and paul dedicated his life for the church and i think the entire new testament is focused and centered on. What does the local new testament church looked like in a fallen sinful world. How does the gospel go forward in our context and in the world. So what happens though. Is the same thing happened to just an justin and i grew up in a different both very different backgrounds. sure he'll reference it but his was more of a liberal Baptist background my was more of a fundamentalist back background and as we have grown in our theology and in as pastors we have been able to look at history and we are making assessments about the christian life in church that are way off and these they have you talk about You know you move one percent off of line and you start walking that line for many years before you know what your miles off the mark in. We are definitely miles off the mark. And what i wanted to do today and what just wanted to do is help you think through your feelings your observations your conclusions and i would even say comparisons scripture and the local context of the church. And i know there's a broad range of travelers. That are out there. But i will say what we're talking about. Today is impacted almost single denomination. That's out there and why we wanted to recommend this book but two more importantly have a conversation about what happened to the church. And why i would say most people struggle with the church and i'm gonna make observation upfront justin. Why most hirsch while most books about the christian life or have nothing to say about the church or what they do have to say about. The church is very foreign to something. Like a fusion's four so that's what we're going to talk about. Today is the struggle with the modern church. What we see and hopefully put some words to your own thoughts about your feelings about the local church so just in kind of just wanted to open it up there and say let's talk about when we look at the modern church i mean. Don't hold back my friend. What is wrong with this context. And how is it that it we got to this place. Let's start with what's wrong. When you walk into a modern broader evangelical church al-muhsin having denomination describe it to me. Gosh so many thoughts running around in my head right now. Even just one of the firm everything you said and maybe state from the outset. That one of the things that i need to do as a pastor second only to helping people understand their need for christ is to help people understand their need for the church in one sense to help people understand how those two things together how we need christ and we need each other and yeah. It's just not common notion in our current church context and there are a million reasons. Why books written today about the church and the well about the christian life. Don't have the church in them lotteries for that but one of the reasons for that is this conversation. We're having today. Because so many people have had terrible experiences in the church they are disenchanted with the church. They feel jaded and burned by the church and have never seen anything legitimate or anything that seems to have any merit In in their entire life in their experience of going to church. And so we want a yeah unpacked some of that today and and have an honest conversation about some of our own experiences. And and hopefully as you said put words to the thoughts that many have had so we'll just maybe ping pong this back and forth a little bit. I like you said. I grew up in a more liberal environment. Theologically but the culture of the church. That i grew up in was still moralistic and so it was this combination of An aversion to doctrine Because all that does divide and it binds us and it's bad but then the emphasis was always just on you being a good person And doing the right stuff and not doing the bad stuff and it was very very confused and difficult situation rights. I grew up thinking that jesus was legit and knowing that that he was the real deal and there was something about him that i couldn't walk away from everything else about the christian life that i had been presented with and everything that i had ever seen in the church i was like man this is whack and i was incredibly disenchanted with the church as an institution And even christianity as a religion in light of everything that i had seen. So i mean i'll just outline a little bit of what i saw in said we'll go back and forth year. I think for sure One of the things that stands out for many people is the fact that the church feels and seems to be very superficial that there is no like real admission of real grievous heinous damnable sins like all people are half struggles right and and we may get there in a minute. Like there's no place for the week right but people seem to be very hesitant to admit the very dark things that go on in everybody's mind and heart right like we know they're there but you don't ever talk about him. You're happy to admit that you struggle with tried Or whatever or maybe that you worry a lot but you're really happy to talk about things that are much much darker and more sinister That are going on in side of you and there seems to be alongside this john. A lack of awareness of sin at the same time and so people seem to think that they're doing a lot better than they are. And so there's all this talk about all the things that we need to be doing and the things that we shouldn't be doing and it's just almost full blown works righteousness sometimes in terms of the way that it's presented and you look around and everybody seems happy to listen to that kind of talk and your conclusion as well. I guess everybody else's crushing it. Because nobody seems disturbed by the that. We're just being told things that we need to do things that we need to refrain from doing as though that's going to earn us. Righteousness before the lord. And i guess all these people are doing well. But i know. I'm not and so then you're sitting there thinking man. I'm i must be the only like unrighteous hypocrite of this whole bunch and clearly. This place isn't for me Because apparently these people had altogether you know they. They look put together. They're talking. they're saying the right staff. They seem to understand themselves. Just be doing well. And every time they pull the lever. It's trips evans. And you know. I'm just like well you know i'm over here floundering and struggling with my conscience and i've blown it countless times this week. And if this christianity than either christianity's a sham or it didn't work me and so then our conclusion is i'm gonna go elsewhere because the church has nothing for a center like knee. Yeah it can also become personality driven. So those who have an outgoing energetic bubbly personality seemed to be the ones that are always the the active good christians and though search to be quiet introspective or even melancholy can be the ones who aren't the good christians and they've become it's a divided and i will tell you this is true of not just one denomination we're not going to pick on denomination because we're going to explain how this really has influenced a lot Of i it's just changed the way the structure and the purpose of the church is supposed to be. But you do you walk into a context of a church and the conversations are not on a familiar level. Like the way you would talk to your brother or sister your wife They are on a very superficial level. How was your day. how's your week. You know when there is a small group community. Groups tend to be really social groups where we talk about social stuff. You're not talking about the real the muck of the of the christian life and you know the their requests are like wow. I just felt like i needed to pray more. You know. i've been struggling with this or my pride or that or you know. I need a new job in which really crushing you. And what's going on in the depression that that is not allowed. And i've had a man in my church recently who talked about expressing some serious issues in his life immense group and they all look at him like he was crazy more. They'll just say well man you know you need to read your bible more need to pray and that's it that's the solution and so people don't share because if the if the if the response to everything is read your bible and pray more than why should i even tell you. I'm struggling. I already know the answer. You're going to give me so. I'm just not gonna say anything and that way i won't be judged and i won't feel guilty about my own struggles right. Yeah what you're describing a lack of legitimate community. There's a lot of language about community and you might even have groups that bear that name but to your point. There's no real admission of weakness. There's no real confession of sin where we are legitimately baring our souls and talking about what's really going on. We all just kind of speak in this very calculated language. Because like you said it. We have either experienced this in the past. Or we've seen it happen to other people where they do confess legitimate sin in legitimate struggle and they are shamed judged or run out of town on a rail and we leave that thinking. Well i'm never going to do that again or man. I saw what happened to that person. I'm never going to do that. That's because it just did not go well. And in addition to that. I think that many of us have been in church context where we look around and we listen to what's being sad and just the way the whole thing is presented to us. It's like this whole. This whole project is about constant improvement. This whole project is about onward and upward and we are always getting better. Everything is always exciting. Every sunday is literally better than the one before. And we we look at that and we're like That's not how life works. we feel like man this is. This feels like a lot of hot air and a lot of hype you know in a lot of sunshine is being pumped at me but this doesn't feel legitimate doesn't feel authentic and the way that we can end up coming away from that to aside from it just feeling. Fake is because the presentation is one of were always getting better. Were always improving This triumph you know like we are we are conquerors and we are triumphant We get we are the people who are having victory over sin and struggle and weakness in the like is we conclude that there is no place for the week in the church. There's no place for the struggler in the church. There's no place. As i said a minute ago for the miserable center and so i think for many people especially the ones who have more tender consciences a for people who have proclivities and bins in their frame or they struggle with it melancholy depression anxiety etc People like that just end up feeling like there is no place for them because they they cannot keep up and tender conscience in the room looks around and assesses what's going on and then looks within assesses his or her own heart mind and thinks well you know i have. I have never done anything. This legitimate or adequate I've never loved god with all my heart so mine and strength. I've never loved my neighbor as myself. I've you know. I've not done this as i should. I've failed to do that as i should. So all of this improvement stuff in this constantly getting better stuff in this constantly getting victory. it's like i'm a failure. And i just don't fit here yeah Yeah and then. I mean bro outs. Another thought real quick is you're talking about a lack of authenticity and a lack of an ability to confess in I mean i do think there are a lot of environments where people not only have they been burn when they've confessed since they just received horrible council when they have confessed things in their lives And i'm not even talking about like reduction this stick somewhat absurd stuff. It's like whoa. you know. Read the bible. And i'm sure it'll be better next week Or whatever i'm talking about like just legitimately like faults stuff Where they've brought some some issue. You know some deep issue of A struggle with sexuality or Their marriage is falling apart and the husband. Wife go and seek counsel and they're just told ridiculous things by pastors Will this is. What's gonna fix your marriage and in a they leave or maybe a particular. One person of the marriage leaves thinking well. That's the last time. I'm ever going to trust a pastor after what i just heard. That's right yeah yeah there is there the trust for the church definitely is not there. We understand that. The bible emphasizes the church. The church is good but what we experience in the church is not what we feel is right. There's filling is a dangerous word to say but you within your soul you feel this dry this cold distance and yet you're yearning for this warm compassionate connection to christ in his body. When i was when i was first married i started to sell this insurance And we would go to these conferences and so were at this conference in in texas. And you know these people are making all this money and they're really talking about how to weaken and you know i'm trying to get through college and i'm just trying to sell this insurance on the side so i can make money and then they are hyping it up and it's like bumping music and were jump in and were clapping and you know it's everything as high high high energy and ton of motion and so you go walking out of there at the conference in. There's one conclusion is on your mind like everyone around me is accessible everyone around doing it if i want to do it. It's up to me. And i walk out of there going all right if i try harder and i be better and i work longer. I can be like that. And that is what church feels like. Yet is high energy it's pumping and the pastor basically tells you all of these amazing stories and at the end you go all right. If i try harder this week i can be like that. Yeah like it it. Ultimately the end of the day depends upon me and that can be presented in a number of ways it can be in this quasi prosperity way but it also can be in this Way were were. Were told that we need to be more disciplined in our lives will get better and we won't send as much and all those things and it's kind of like a smack on the backside and go out there and don't disappoint god you know and We leave ultimately discouraged because again we think well this clearly depends upon me at least in some measure in my life isn't going that well and i'm still struggling so i must be messing. This up and god is displeased with me. And so yeah. We lead exhausted and not encouraged couple of other observations. Just really quickly from me. These are not related at all. So i'm going to do the best that i can hear. Another thing that i think is hard for. People is that whenever they have raised concerns in the church. Those concerns have been met with pride defensiveness and condescension rather than humility patience grace and charity and sad right. Because i know you. And i john had this conversation offline many times about how we will fail in this because we're centers to but one of our chief aims as pastors in our respective churches is to meet the concerns of our people and even critiques that are raised Were when somebody comes to us. And they're just really. They've been hurt by us or whatever it is to aim to meet that with humility and charity and grace and patients rather than being proud and defensive and and i think pride is only a few like the that flame of pride is only fanned and there's gas poured on that fire by a lot of the competitive stick culture that exists in the church. That tells you you will be doing better if you are disciplined. And if you apply yourself in these particular ways and people think that their discipline and their devotion and their dedication is what has gotten them to where they are and they. I do think don't want him people's motivations but i think end up looking down upon others who are not doing as well as they are in are just unable to kind of hear from people That that may raise legitimate concerns before them the last thing i want to say homes before we move forward in terms of struggles with the church is this When we go to services it seems that the entire thing or at least most of it is aimed at the non-believer believer try to bring the non believer in and what that means. Is that the gospel in particular the way of salvation. Christ for you. That is almost exclusively preached to the non-christian and in order to get them to make that decision to trust in christ but then when it comes to the christian life in the day to day in the week to week once i am in really all i'm getting is a bunch of instruction on how to live better how to improve five steps to this here are things that you need to flee from here are ways to be disciplined and i end up being exhausted by that because i'm not actually given jesus in the service via m maybe at best in a situation where jesus is assumed like yeah. We all believe the gospel. But we're gonna talk about how you should live today and so our experience of church is not one of rest. It's not one of being reminded. That christ is our righteousness. It's not one of being comforted in the lord. Jesus christ and thereby being motivated to live out of love and joy and gratitude. It's really. I mean a a culture that driven by guilt and shame and fear and dread and judgment i for the believer And crisis really only held out to somebody who has not yet believed and then it's almost like would ever say it. this way. I mean. Stephen fertig did recently but i mean a lot of people go to church is where it's kind of like if you're a christian. This church isn't for you if you re this. Church is for the non believer man. Like if you're if you're in we got nothing for you here and it's like in some ways. We might almost deuce people a service if we were just as honest. Stephen focus in saying that this church elevation doesn't exist for the christian church just exist to bring people in Because in many churches that's how they function anyway and the christians are sitting there starving and are sitting there discouraged dry because they're not being given jesus who is there life and apart from him. They can do nothing. If you're new to theo cast. We have a free book available for you. Called faith versus faithfulness a primer unrest. And if you struggled with legalism a lack of assurance or simply want to know what it means to live by faith alone. We wrote this little book to provide a simple answer from a reformed confessional perspective you can get your free copy. That theo cast dot org slash primer. Well the question then becomes. How did we get here. And we're gonna talk about what we think the biblical church looks like as part of what this podcast is about thinking things from a reform perspective and We will get there eventually but we want to talk about how we got here. Sometimes it's helpful to understand and deconstruct and pull back the structure of a church or the structure of anything an ask. Why was it built this way. And i would say the modern church is a patchwork of mauled of monte theology that is not centered on a biblical theology. And so. I think we're gonna start with revivalism. Were definitely gonna talk about the emergent church and even influence the massive influence of the purpose driven church by rick warren. So something we reference alaba. Think it's important for you understand justin. Let's talk about revivalism a little bit early. you have you have. It's a response accord a cold orthodoxy. You think that the church has lost. Its way it's only concern. They call it the frozen. And it's it's the is dying and so you have men who want to revive says revivalism revived the church. Get them back excited. And so it is not based upon theology. It is not based upon doctrine. Definitely not based upon the history of the church and you have men who are coming in. And they are going to preach passionate fiery sermons to get people to repent and you from revivalism. You have all kinds of new. Things introduced into the church which is event based theology. Meaning that revivalism wasn't happening inside churches. It was happening inside tent meetings. These were entertainment happening outside the local gathering. On the lord's day. That's right they would go from town to town Kind of where. Billy graham really got his wings. Is this idea of these massive events coming from town to town you have to understand. during revivalism. there was no entertainment. there is no radio. There's no tv so when you have someone publicly coming and speaking and it's in the center of town and you can hear it you're going to be drawn into that and this is where you start hearing about the anxious bench and the famous sawdust trail. Yeah you don't know what that means. Yeah i think concerns with revivalism are several and you've mentioned some of them. One is the the relocation of really the ministry of the word. It's removed from the corporate gathering on the lord's day and it's taken outside of the regular assembly and you know in a in a field or of tent meeting or something like that Is where that occurs. There is a huge emphasis on conversion making a decision for christ Not that that's a bad thing to desire but there is perhaps in the centered emphasis in any means necessary. You know to get those professions of faith and to see conversion happened. That's what we want to do. And then in addition to that. There's a huge emphasis on moral transformation because there's always a concern with lax and apathetic living and lawless right. That is a piece of revivalism. And so as you look back through the history of the church the first and second grade awakening are both revival listrik movements now. The first one was better than the second. In terms of the theology that was being preached george whitfield and jonathon edwards. Are preaching better doctrine. You know in terms of even the gospel and how people are saved than many in the second grade awakening. Were you know. Charles finney and others. I mean that's where like the new methods and all kinds of things were introduced in the church like you mentioned the anxious bench and the altar call and all these kinds of things came about in the early to middle part of the eighteen hundreds As a result of that movement so it was worse than the first grade awakening for sure theologically but the whole project we would say and this sounds scandalous to say the whole project of revivalism in our minds from our perspective and this is again the scripture and thinking about the history of the church and the like the whole project was skewed off. Yeah where what we would be. Contending for is that the lord brings a revival. He's the one who does out. And he's going to do it through the maine's that he has given us and he's gonna do it through the ordinary means of grace that are a piece of the corporate reality of the gathered church on the lord's day when we gathered for the preaching of the word the administration of the sacraments for prayer and for song. Try and we trust him to do his work there. Rather than kind of using these other more extraordinary measures to bring about what we say as a work of god right yeah and it was performance based the they were going after moral transformation. They were preaching against all kinds of things gambling. There were preaching against drinking. Yeah right and so. They're trying to shut down bars trying to shut down pool houses. And you know there's there's there's a massive movement. Yeah men like charles finney who basically said. I could convince pretty much an entire room to come to be converted to christ. Just give me enough time. He was a great selo ship and he was he was a fiery preacher and he but his theology is so terrible you he would say that every time christian sins he or she needs to be reconverted. This is how you you preach in a fire and brimstone messages. It's not hard. I mean if you're dealing with people who are legitimately converted you know if you're dealing with regenerate people who are aware of their sin. It is not hard to convince them their centers. But then when you tell them that every time you send you are basically are now unsaved again and what you need to do is come forward to the front. I mean i think people were hearing this. It's like okay. Well this is where a lot of this massive not only coming forward for the altar call to profess faith but this whole rededication of life and all this stuff. This is where it comes right absolutely so you you have. De-emphasis eight de emphasizing doctrine creeds and confession. These men were not trying to promote a theology based on church history that had been faithfully handed down to them. They were emphasizing. Which we were you know the heart of it behind it. Unthankful their emphasizing evangelism and preaching shos spoil but just because someone has good intentions doesn't means their actions in the way the fulfilled. It is correct. And i think a lot of the assessment of the men who were doing revivalist preaching. There were assessing the local churches. And were what happened to the god of the dead orthodox seton and a lot of that justin. I would say they to lost their way in. This is part of being a sinner in this there. So much warning in the new testament about who should be held irs and who should be teachers and paul against those who are shepherding But the the response had such a ripple effect in the wave of this has influenced church history hugely millions and millions of churches and christians. Have around the world have been influenced by this revivalist movement. So we're gonna move forward a little bit. Revivalism starts to take shift and change where you're starting to see a de-emphasis de-emphasizing of doctrine Even theological schools are becoming. They're dying because men are not seeing the necessity of being well trained in church history and in the languages and doctrine and all of a sudden you men who were performing well and know how to articulate themselves well or are high energy. I would even say good salesman you start to see the shift. In where the shift. I think in the nineties explodes is in the emergent church. Which for a while. It was really hard to like even penned down. What is the emergent church even me. Yeah it's kind of a big tent right. Rob l. is really big in this. You have mark driscoll coming out of it but understanding this is on. The merger was dealing basically with postmodernism. In what they are trying to fight against what they are really pushing back against is Resonating with people in the early nineties in in in the two thousands where you had cold hard facts and that was cold and distant from our culture. They wanted something that was more warm and inviting subjectively versus objectivity or spirituality over religion. I can remember that. I don't want religion. I want a relationship. It's images versus word or outward versus inward feeling versus truth. I mean you can kind of go on but this is what. The emergent church really drew in younger crowd and it changed the tolan. They created these massive communities. These people who are excited churches exploded but as adjusted said the entire experience came more about. How do we draw in a bigger crowd. And how do we draw in and be relevant to the culture and it became all about relevancy it did not become about faithfulness to the word of god Allowing the word of god to convict of sin lead into the hope of christ and the gospel it became more about. How do we help. People have an experience of god and the experience became the primary driver of what church looked like. Yeah one other piece of this in terms of how did we get here. I'm gonna use a few words. Define them the current church context. And the things that were describing. Today are in part a result of triumphalism and got again as a way to describe this onward and upward always improving dynamic. The current church context result of pieters amount. Which is a hyper focus on how we are doing on our affections. For god on our discipline's our audience and our performance so it's this very inward very introspective posture. That has certainly characterized the church. So you combine that with triumphalistic perspective. You're always needing to get better. And then you're hyper introspective. And always assessing you and your affections and your disciplines obedience. That's a big piece of how we've gotten to where we are. And then in addition to that all of this the triumphalistic stuff in the pilot. Cystic stuff is a part of a larger theology of every again. It's it's that we're strong. We're getting better victory and all that verses what has historically been understood as a theology of cross that says that we are in fact week still yes christ is strong but we are not you know we are weak we are needy and that is where the grace and mercy of christ is made manifest an obvious as he meets us in our need in our weakness and that right now not only will we be week we will suffer but there is a glory that awaits us That kind of theology has just gone by the wayside in most churches today. Which is what has resulted in something that we were describing earlier where there's no place for the struggler. There's no place for the week. There's no place dare we say even for the center. Certainly not miserable center as augusta would have called us. You know the guston was lambasted for a propagating. What many called a miserable center version of christianity. And it's like well. I mean if we're going to be lumped in with him. I guess guilty as charged to say that. Yeah we are miserable sinners in christ our only hope. But that's not what's been heralded too. Many of us know in our church experience and it's left many of us jaded and disenchanted and try and feeling like the church clearly is not for us. That's right i will To justin's point he just introduced you. If you're new to theo casta to really important subjects that we cover a lot in our description in our podcast will be linked to a podcast for both of those. We did one the theology of the crossroads theology of glory. An triumphalism one of the things. I do in a niche in in the impact of it I grew up about an hour away from this church. So the saddleback rick warren. He wrote a church. He wrote a book in mid ninety s called the purpose driven church which is based off the purpose driven life. And i don't know if people understand the influence impact of that book but that church that i mean. That book is listed in the top. One hundred books christian books that have changed the century and in really in many ways people understand like the church and jan role shifted because of what he wrote. And if you read the book about what is the purpose of the church. This is the thing that we are. Battling today in more ways than i've ever seen just an i we we to shake our heads constantly when we're thinking about all of the purpose of like what is the purpose of the church and you can think about it. It's social justice or race or it's dealing with Equality emmy there so much that is driven and so when you think about what did jesus hand us as our primary focus. What drives us our purpose in you. Look at the history of what the church has been driving from. Revivalism to the emerging church of the purpose driven. Church you do. You're not handed. What we are going to argue is what the reform tradition has been holding to what we think is the accurate explanation of scripture. Which is where we're gonna go now. The of the explanation of this is what the purpose of the churches and the design of the church and what church should feel be. This is what you should experience in a church so in short the church is about jesus and the people who need him and so the church obviously is centered around built upon. Jesus christ in what he has done for us. He's the cornerstone right. He's the stone off of which every other stone is oriented in terms of the building of the household of god and he is the one who bears the weight right like he is the one who has accomplished everything that we need and so we begin with christ. We emphasize what he has done for us that we receive by faith. This work of christ stands outside of us. It's not right and we're always looking to him for righteousness and for our forgiveness and our absolution. We are absolved of guilt. Because of what. Jesus has done. So we herald that message and alongside that we say not only do we need christ. It's very clear in the new testament that we need other at trion the way that christ has instituted the church and design. The church is one. It's a design where we together as we have all been united to christ in inner united. Do each other thereby we live life together with our various gifts and we together build one another up in love unto maturity in christ. And that's going to happen it in a corporate setting. Not when we're by ourselves that's going to happen with the saints. Not when we're alone and we will grow together or not at all. That's very odd rise in the letters of the new testament and so far this conversation john. I'm not quite sure where you wanna go. I got one of the things that we emphasize regularly is the gathered church because we need to understand that the new testament epistles are all written two congregations or they are written to pastors with the congregation. In view allah first second timothy and titus right and thereby the exhortations in the new testament i mean practically all of them are corporate in nature. You know the us in the new testament or plural and the exhortations are two people groups of christians who were living life together and we sadly often just kind of rip those from their context and assume that they're all individual anchor -tations but they're not so the church gathered is a reality that the new testament upholds all the time and so the exhortations about the word of god or about the sacraments or about prayer or singing or any of that are to take place within the context of the gathered body. When were assembled. And that's what the reformed have always historically referred to as the ordinary means of grace tries to the way that we're grown in. The faith primarily is by gathering with each other so and then partaking of these means of the word. and the lord's table baptism prayer and the like and god uses that over the course of a lifetime to do things that we could never of imagined that he would do in our lives right. I want to mention several verses. That are not emphasized. You not going to hear a lot of sermons on these. These are not Versus people memorize. But these are what i would call verses that the new testament writers used to structure what life is like after conversion. Like when you were adopted into the family what does family life. Look like in the house of god i can tell you what family life looks like in house of moffett and we have ways in which we function in in we gather and how we care for each other my family. We don't live independent of each other. It's not like we pass each other in the halls. How's your day going. That's not how we work in them off at house and in god's house he's very clear and what he wants in. This is why i feel so. I'm not angry at the modern church. I'm not mad at the church. What i what i want to say. My heart is broken. Because what god has given us. We've seen to abandon show. Many people are drowning in their own despair. And they're so lonely and they're so exhausted by sen so listen to some of these instructions that god gives the writers in the new testament to help us understand and will i'll even fijian's for the end. Just because i know that you are gonna problem when a bounce off his ad we're gonna have to even leave a fees. Four four are the members podcasts. Google ruin a timeshare but listen to these. Like we'll just start with even james when james says confess your sins to one another that that is not something the local church. I mentioned this. Every sunday from my pulpit is listened we want to take the word of god serious and james says to confess our sins to one another. Why would we do that. Because what's the fastest way to create quality within a group of humans. Have everybody admit that they evolved failed. That's immediate quality. I don't care what gender you are. I don't care what race you are. I don't care what income you have. If you're an equally of god's grace and how do we know that because we confess our failures. but here's another thing that we do not see dependence on the local church. We see dependence on our efforts and our cells but listen how the rider bieber's says this for instance he says Obey your leaders and submit to them for they are keeping watch over your souls as those who will give an account to them. Sorry to this with joy and not with groaning for that would be of no advantage to you justin. We don't hear this explained preach and really put out there as a as a protection. A place of rest saying hey listen. Yeah rightly trained. Elders and selected owners are there for year benefit. No word staying in the book. Hebrews know we're going to save a fijian's officials chapter ten nineteen and following. I'm not gonna read all of it. But the writer says that because of christ you know in the access we have to god and the confidence that we have before god because of what jesus has done he says let us hold fast. The confession of our hope without wavering. For he who promised is faithful and let us consider how to stir up one another to love and good works not neglecting to meet together as is the habit of some but encouraging one another and all the more as you see the day drawing near that that tax those few verses are just dripping with corporate language. Let us consider how we can't stir one another up to love and good works. Let us hold fast. The confession of our hope because god's faithful all those things and then let's not neglect to meet together. Let's a symbol riley taylor to that point in in chapter three reverser team but exhort one another every day as long as it is called today that none of you may be hardened by the deceitfulness of sin right amen. And there are so many other passes that we could go to were running a little bit short on time last comment that i might wanna make or that. I do wanna make those an absurd way saying before we move over to the members of the podcast is that as we in the context of the church in the context of legitimate community as the gospel is preached unheralded faithfully. Week after week after week after week and we all understand who christ is for us and what he did for us what that produces this is to your point about the confession of sin. It produces a culture in the church where honesty is the order of the day and where we are we are. We are confessing our failures and our shortcomings. And it's actually safe to talk about the things that are really going on in our minds and hearts because nobody's going to be shocked. We have a robust enough understanding of sin that we understand that we all do things and think things and desire things that are evil and we understand that our own performance is not where are standing before the lord lies so we can encourage each other in the faithfulness of god to us in christ and so the gospel creates this kind of authentic community where these things are taking place. And i think that's what all of us are starving for. And i know that by the lord's grace john. That's what you and i along with our other elders and our churches and our people we together aiming to see those kinds of things happen at grace reformed church and it coming disturbed and we pray that they will and will continue to. Yeah well. I have a lot more to say. We're run out of time for five minutes. We've hit it so let's go ahead and move over to our members podcast which will be changing very soon. Stay tuned for that. We have a whole new ministry coming out. Which will allow you to take this conversation. That justin i just add and gather with other listeners and discuss all of your questions and encourage one another locally and online so stay tuned for simple referenda. It's coming your way. We're excited to launch that in new app with it. I know what's throw that out here. Comps is throwing all kinds of stuff. Yeah but we do need to have a further conversation on. What does it look like. What is the local church. Looked like and so. We're going to do that. If you want to know more about that you go to casper dot org and you can learn more about one how to support the to join in on this conversation that we're having about continuing the reformation the church go back to its roots focusing in on christ and other and we'll see over there. Those you're listening. We'll see naturally.
Sports Betting Buzz, Alibaba And Safe Haven Plays
"S and p downs indices offers index strategies for all types of investments. Efg solutions core retirement strategies multi asset diversification and new ways of thinking about risk management and income. All in one place. Give yourself the freedom to go anywhere with. Snp dow jones indices search index allergy on the web or hashtag index allergy. Witter in lincoln. Welcome to seeking alpha stocks to watch wall street breakfasts weekend edition our news teams weekend preview of upcoming. Ipo's earnings reports conference presentations investor days. Fda decisions barons mentions and other key events that could impact stocks to set you up for the week ahead in the markets. Subscribe to this. Podcast on apple podcasts. Google podcasts spotify. Stitcher good morning. Today is sunday november. Eighth i'm your host renewable. We begin with a breakdown of the week ahead. From seeking alpha's news team. The associated press nbc edison research. Fox news and cnn projected. Joe biden has won the us presidency after factoring in the latest batch votes though election uncertainty may linger in the market as investors. Look for the right. Mix of stocks based on the prospect of a divided government while the earnings season slows down. There are still some intriguing reports from disney cisco and mcdonald's to watch across the pacific alibaba will be in the spotlight with its single day event. The bond market takes the day off on november eleventh for veterans day before opening backup to digest the inflation report on november twelfth and producer prices report on november thirteenth in earnings news. Mcdonald's beyond meat and occidental petroleum report on november nine. Dr horton tencent. Music and lift report on the tenth adamant and green thumb industries report on the eleventh disney cisco applied materials and tencent report on the twelve draft kings and spectrum brands report on november thirteenth. And ipo news new ipo pricing in the week ahead include innate bio and inhibit case therapeutics november ninth. Meanwhile airbnb is expected to open its books to investors ahead of the company's highly anticipated. Ipo airbnb is aiming to raise as much as three billion in the offering on the nasdaq. Which would be one of the largest listings of the year. Mcdonald's ceo and cfo will join other members of the senior management team november ninth to update the company's strategic priorities. The event is expected to feature details on new and existing initiatives with a particular focus on delivery digital and drive thru. Apple will hold. What is expected to be mac centric event to introduce the first apple. Silicon mac promise. Ceo tim cook as part of the announcement last summer with its powerful features an industry leading performance apple silicon will make them stronger and more capable than ever. The biggest wildcard for investors might be. What products will be available before the holiday season including a new mac book air airtags and new headphones alibaba singles day takes on a different look this year with new products and brands. The number of new products. debut. In on alibaba's beat a c platform team. All alone will top two million to mark twice the number of new products from last year. The company is expecting a huge day. After seeing strong sales for its first sales window of the eleven eleven global shopping festival the early results indicate that consumer spending has rebounded strongly in china and that the demand for imported goods is higher than ever the long wait for video gamers ends on november tenth when microsoft start selling the four hundred and ninety nine dollar xbox series x and the slightly less powerful two hundred and ninety nine xbox series s. The new xbox will be backward compatible with older games getting optimizations just behind the xbox launch. So we will selling the playstation five november twelfth. The ps five digital edition. We'll listen three ninety. Nine and the ps five with ultra hd. Blu ray disc drive. We'll be priced at four hundred and ninety nine dollars. The launch of the console's is considered of high interest. Publishers like activision blizzard. Electronic arts take two interactive and ubisoft while game stops new strategic partnership with biker. Soft gives it a piece of digital content sold on xbox sold by game stop. The gaming sector is coming off an election day. During which every gaming sports betting ballot initiative was approved by voters in the us union gaming analyst jon decree says the sweep was partially a byproduct of the significant mainstream acceptance of sports betting over the past two years which has been driven by support and national advertising from national media and entertainment brands casinos and sports leagues. We continue to see more gambling. Expansion ahead particularly estates cope with widening budget deficits. He noted in the week ahead a sports. Betting investor summit will include a talk by new york state. Senator joseph dabo of sports betting legalization in new york would create a buzz in the industry for players. Like draftkings penn national gaming and fan duel the tech sector is being sized favorably by investors and analysts after the election on the prospect of a mixed government wedbush securities analyst. Antibes expects to china tech war to out and noted that the regulatory outlook maybe more promising for the sector based on policy platforms. The street view appears to be that a biden presidency will take a relatively more friendly tone on china technology and policy issues which could ratchet down tensions and rhetoric between the us china across the enterprise and consumer technology ecosystem however the longstanding issues around piracy and theft are not going away. The election results is seen as very supportive in particular for favorite names like apple microsoft salesforce and z scaler. General motors will showcase the chevy tahoe chevy suburban cadillac escalade and gmc yukon denali at the china international import expo event. That starts on november eleventh. The automaker is planning to sell full-size. Suv's in china for the first time an import more cars into the region. Meanwhile ford talks connected cars at the bank auto tech conference. The discussion will include. How connected vehicle. Technology will drive growth. Elevate customer experiences improve vehicle quality and lower warranty costs. analysts have been incrementally positive over. Ford's plans this week in barons mentions the stocks and themes drying attention in barron's weekly addition. Is it time to play it safe. The publication provides investors with a shopping list for uncertainty around a divided government. Some of the safe haven picks identified for investors are shares twenty plus year treasury bond which trades under not i shares ibox investment grade corporate bond. Etf trades under l q d invesco currency shares japanese yen trust f x. Y. spider gold chairs. Etf g. l. d. alphabet marriott international wynn resorts morgan stanley stanley. Black and decker. An active in a separate article apollo global management is called attractive given the firms expanding asset base earnings growth and investment trends that favor alternative managers in the timeshare sector marriott. Vacations worldwide is said to have a premium valuation but is described as well positioned to get through the pandemic and beyond this week in our single stock focus. We're covering technologies with pre ipo swap. The stock closed the week at over thirteen. Eighty pre ipo swap. Starts here we believe that palin tear is a buy and hold and we will explain why furthermore we believe the company is getting bad press which is unwarranted. The various controversies surrounding pal. And tere are not the ones about its business. Model pelletier is a big data analytics company. That's half sas and half consulting when you hire pailin tier. There's a hundred thousand dollars startup fee and it sends one of its agents to work in your office physically to implement the product. The average revenue per customer is twenty five million. According to oppo the peletier ipo lockups twenty percent allowed to trade immediately eighty percent in the future but the company time the eighty percent to be released right around when it will release its numbers. Why do you think it would do that. It is obviously expecting some good things coming and we aren't the only ones with that opinion. Jim cramer of cnbc. Says it's finding its place and can go to twelve. Plus while he may not be the most credible source just the fact that he's bullish on here can only be helpful to the stock. As a growing generation of robinhood traders continues to be bombarded with cnbc cheer fests moving on palin tears seems to be a covert plus company having many benefits for its business. Not only there is greater demand for each product but it is also involved in covert specific operations such as operation to bury us. Which is the plan to roll out kovac scenes in the us an extremely complex logistic challenge. Also the company is picking up cove related contracts that involve data modeling something pollen tear is suited to do the right mix of experience with massive projects and effectively analyzing huge amounts of data. It does not rely on government contracts but those contracts do provide a use for large enterprises pre. Ipo sweep goes on to write. Here is not a company based on hype and marketing until the recent ipo remained in the shadows in the pre ipo business. There was a joke about something. You may not know pailin chair but palin tear knows you. It remains in the shadows seemingly allergic to traditional pump mechanisms employed by other companies any speculation on a stock going hire based on hope no matter how deep analysis we look at. There's no telling what will happen in the future even with analytics as strong as pound chair foundry however based on available data and based on the price holding up in the face of negative news controversy an insider selling even though only twenty percent can sell from day one of the ipo. We believe that palin tear has formed a base and we'll go higher overall seeking alpha authors skew bullish on palin tier technologies with three very bullish three bullish six neutral and to bearish that concludes this week's tax to watch. Thanks so much for listening for the best investment analysis. A news on the web go to seeking alpha dot com. Subscribe to this podcast on apple. Podcast google podcasts. Spotify stitcher you can sign up for other podcasts alpha traitor let's talk. Etf's the cannabis investing podcast in essay for f.a.s.t on those platforms as well have a great week. Snp dow jones indices offers index strategies for all types of investments es g solutions core retirement strategies multi asset diversification and new ways of thinking about risk management and income. All in one place. Give yourself the freedom to go anywhere with. Snp dow jones indices search index the web or hashtag index allergy on twitter and lincoln.
Mad Money w/Jim Cramer 11/10/20
"This cnbc podcast is brought to you by td ameritrade. There's no roi on t. m. i. that's why. Td ameritrade created a learning experience. That will actually learn with you. Curated from their vast library of exclusive content it customized to fit your investing goals interests and needs. So you get exactly the information you need and none of the information you don't get started at. Td ameritrade dot com slash education once again. That's td ameritrade dot com slash education. Adversity arises. the best of america answers the call with teamwork sacrifice and an unshakeable commitment to keeping each other safe in honor of veteran's day jim cramer games. Thanks to those for whom the greater good is their. Life's were mad. Money salute to service starts now. Hey i'm cramer. Welcome to a special salute to service veterans day edition of mad money. People want to make friends. I just trying to make you some money. My job is not just entertain you but educate and teach you so call me at one. Eight hundred seven four three cnbc or tweet me at jim. Cramer the old normal. It's dying the new normal struggles to be born. Now is the time for something. We're we hardly ever using wall street. Now it's time for nuance. If today with the dow gained two hundred sixty three points as declined point for present. And that's lost one point seven percent. I think we've gotten to the point where terms like growth and value which people throw around all day. No longer help kovic exploiting but a vaccine the way along with the new president. You can't just dump the pandemic place and swap into reopening stocks. You need to be more prudent and more rigorous than that. Unfortunately the conventional wisdom says everybody's binary you buy so you sell the softwares you dumped a semi she by the rails to in consumer packaged goods. Stocks yourselves steals. There's some powerful simplistic concepts here. Now there are some long-term themes that you and i can talk about. That will keep working while the right. Now they're being obscured by some serious cross-currents that we have to go over. So why don't we start with the vaccine trade because it's on everybody's mind. Yesterday's news from pfizer vaccine is more than ninety percent effect was a game changer. Nfip closed willie got emergency approval for its kovic treatment. Antibody therapy put it all together and yes. We can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. So what does that mean for the stock market. Well get good. News from other vaccine developers moderna or astrazeneca. Glaxosmithkline johnson johnson. Which i think we will. I think we're going to have another leg higher each time. That's right every time we get good news about another kovak senior therapeutic you can expect the cloud stocks the internet stocks fang stocks stumble while all these other stocks like the banks and sickles do well however there's a cross current we may have white at the end of the tunnel but right now we're still in the tunnel and every time we get another record breaking number of infections that's going to bring the bars back to some of the tattered. Now tattered covert one hundred. Think amazon which is getting hit. But i think will eventually be a by fitbit which is by right now at c. shop affi- facebook and all the delivery companies in other words. I'm betting stocks right now. We'll go back and forth like a ping-pong that's not value or growth. It's mad against fires. It's the wisdom of crowds making knee-jerk investment decisions. Every time we get a new data point second big theme that will west. Okay it will. Last is housing. This goose been bolstered by the pandemic with people fleeing cities for the suburbs as well as low interest rates which make it so it's possible with rates rising again ever so slightly people are suddenly afraid but then this morning. Dr horton reporter. Blowout quarter sixty. Six percent earnings growth eighty-one percent net sales orders. Just a monster top and bottom line beat you david. Old said is the best housing market and thirty two years. And he thinks is sustainable. Wow it comes. How do you argue with numbers. Here's how i see it. Just because a vaccine is on the way that doesn't mean we'll see the end of this exodus from the cities and into dr horton homes. The theme still alive. Fact is cove is out of control and we still don't have a plan to get the vaccine where needs to go. Don't get me wrong. Vaccine looks like the real deal but it will take months and months to produce and distribute. I don't get the sense that there's even a plan for when we're finally able to get it in. When the vaccine arrives. I wouldn't be surprised to the exit continues. It could take years for cities to recover from the pandemic and now that we know millions of jobs can be done remotely. There's less reason to live near the office. Plus a biden administration will be less hostile to immigration which means more demand for housing. Nice tailwind something that no one is talking about still yet be ready for the home. Builder's to get hammered. Every time we get some good vaccine news that causes people to believe economic activity will pick up causing interest rates to increase and the end of the exit the suburbs those are not going to change the direction of the moving vans though so. I don't want you to get confused when you see stocks sherm. Thirteen cars the auto industry was already on fire. Part of the exodus to the suburbs and the country. Where you need a car to get around and you can't karpov anymore either. But if the economy opening that gives you more reason to drive for gm's stock had been both up relentlessly. I think they both have a lot more room derived. Maybe well you know what. There's a good chance. The biden administration hands out subsidies for electric cars votes congress meanwhile the dealerships car-o-van and we interviewed voters. Not that long. They're gonna keep powering higher. You're not going back with mass transit when the contagion rate is this hi hostels over the country about to be overwhelmed again. It'll be months and months before enough. People have the vaccine for the world to go back to normal. Those months belong to the oros. Poor theme is the bizarre bifurcation in retail this warning sign and property group the large malls in the country revealed. The plenty of their tenants has simply stopped paying even with vaccine around the corner. I'm betting most of the small and medium-sized restaurants. Couldn't fail while we wait as for retail. Many of these chains are running short of cash. This group will be a tug of war macy's nordstrom kohl's though rally on positive vaccine years. I mean rarely used twenty percent and then we'll get sold off again. When cases keeps spiking while we wait for the next data point speaking of the results. Simon property group. All these brick and mortar bankruptcies means another big spike in unemployment on the way. Ceo david simon is a very smart guy. He made his comments. Pretty clear about ten is being totally cash-strapped. Listen to this quote will while we have made significant progress in addressing collections. We still have some unresolved a mouse with certain larger national tenants who unfortunately refusing to pay their contractual rent even though they are open and operating end quote my translation. These chains may have employs now but those people will lose their jobs. The stores addicted can't stay in business if you can't pay rent that's bad news for the max which exploded higher yesterday as the vaccine news course a surge in interest rates which would be good for the banks. I see that moving repeal by the coming wave the fault now more country action to give you. We have a ton of american tech companies and for the most part their stocks running going through the weekend because we had no idea when the virus be contained. Those stocks got obliterated yesterday and again today. But they're still up dramatically since the pandemic got started. And you know what that makes sense. I spent more downside but not a ton of downside. So get ready. Why should there not be a lot of downside. Because cova didn't give these tech companies a temporary boost it hastened a long term trend through gradual integration into our work in our lives older tech companies. They are companies that do things period in everyone of our in every single stock we trade there's tax there's digitisation perhaps more importantly made these techniques should benefit from the biden administration remember. President trump has been very aggressive trait that nearly every other country including china. Best go most your when buying comes in this going to change a softer line on track on trade. Maybe even a more diplomatic approach in general than tweeting that means our international company should have more opportunities overseas. Good news boeing honeywell otis three. It's good for the railroads which take goods back and forth from our parts our ports finally under trump. And maybe this is the most important thing that's happening right now. Under trump american companies have been scared to death of leaving america and opening new factories. They trembled at the trump tweets. They were scared of our president. Love it or hate it. that will soon be over. They'll be able to expand again build again what they have especially by the way a company that really needs our allies boeing and that is terrific for their shareholders particularly boeing. The bottom line these false dichotomies too much money to be made by recognizing all the cross-currents here as these different groups ebb and flow with the news cycle. It's not value versus growth. It's every man woman and company for itself by this. Here's a little different. His kovic guide. Everybody a little different doesn't so for this edition of mad. Money slew service. We have some video questions from around the country of those who have served or currently serving in the us military first up. We have a question from a manual at the united states military academy at west point. Julia jen my name is emmanuel. I'm a first class could at newark new jersey. And i'm currently studying french and karn terrorism. I'm also on a boxing team gourmet boxing at west point i'm part of the healthcare sector with a west point in investment club and we're currently researching the valuation of madeira prefix. My question for you is what do you think of the future. Growth prospects madonna. Thank you so what we've learned about turn. Is that the aren a thinking. David museum is the same defies. Doing so we're not surprise me one bit. If we did not hear great news about moderna can be as good as pfizer. Absolutely did i like those guys is much. I didn't like ten insider selling. But i think modern is fine and it will join the family of successful pharmaceuticals if they have a vaccine. That goes north of ninety percent of effectiveness. Next up we have a question coming from cameron at the united states. Air force academy is my name's cameron and i'm a be nice. Every scotty from charleston south carolina. And i have a question about india pharmaceuticals with the majority of the opioid crisis behind them and most of their lawsuits settled. They're transitioning away from opioids into injectables. They've new joe quo coming out in the first quarter of next year. What do you think about them. For a speculative play. Well you know your asshole cameras got us you play all right and i do hope all the lawsuits are behind them. And i do think that. Frankly i'm gonna tell you think you can do better than that camera. There are so many fabulous companies. That i don't think you have to do is play this a low dollar amount there plenty of great ones and we talk about them all the time. But you know frankly i'm gonna you. I'd rather have in brazil mars. I really would get a little yield. Put away that yael. Let it be reinvested and reinvested and by the time you're out service you had a lot of money all right. Our next question comes from benjamin at the us coastguard station in new wave. But benjamin. hey jim i've been watching your show for a long time. I've been investing for about ten to fifteen years now and recently made a big purchase in docu sign. And i'm wondering what your opinion is on that. I saw a tweet from you earlier in the pandemic saying that you weren't too sure if there are no deals going on you probably don't think docu sign is going to do very well but in the future. I'm wondering what your perspective is. Okay my problem with docu. Sinuses run about one hundred one hundred fifty points the since the pandemic grew shorted roaring. And there are. There's a belief that obviously therefore there will be deals with a vaccine. That are back to face to face. But i agree with you. It's never going to go back to the way it was. So i would think if you had an extra capital let it go down fiscal dates and buy more because docu sign is the way that we are going to do business for the rest of our lives. Thank you all for some great questions and more importantly for your service Dallas remember now is not is time for new one stop. The meat ax value growth. I'm gonna rip. Somebody's long south. They keep coming on our air saying that and by the way. I know where you work we are. I work here anyway. Don't fall prey to false dichotomies. There's too much money to be made in. the boss. Turns for you to just think. Growth value book value won a special veterans day edition of band money. America's armed forces keep us safe and are the guarantors of the freedom that we so often take for granted. tonight i'm highlighting companies. That are doing their part to honor those who protect and serve and then beyond me. Tim up with pizza hut but the news did little to stop the post earnings slide in the company stock today war. It's somewhat opaque relationship with mc sitting down the was really going plus all. I'm going to sit down with a former army captain. Who currently runs the most recognizable companies on the planet and is doing a great job. Don't miss my exclusive interview with the tamils as we salute our brave servicemen and women on this special edition of mad money. Stick with kramer. Don't miss a second of mad money. Follow at jim cramer on twitter. I have a question. Tweak grammar hashtag mad tweets send jimmy mail to mad money at cnbc dot com or give us a call at one eight hundred seven four three cnbc something bedtime mad money dot c. nbc dot com this limited commercial edition of mad. Money is made possible. Bud boeing on this veterans day. We thank all who have served our country jeans. There in american staple no article of clothing is more closely linked to our nation's history today denims and ninety billion dollar industry but that success didn't come easy. I'm david brown. The host of wondering show business wars. We go deep into some of the biggest corporate rivalries of all time and in our latest series. Where unzipping how. Levi's lee and wrangler managed to take workman's wear from the frontier to the runway and closets around the world. Join us for denim wars. Listen on apple podcasts. Spotify or listen ad free by joining wanderer plus in the wonder. Yep hey jim. Thanks for having us on the show. It's a great honor. I need to go from who to boo. Everyone veterans day. We put on a special salute to service. Show our favorite your frankly tonight. We tradition even with the pandemic means. We can't do it quite the same way like class year at the air force academy when we went to west point is memorable days for us over the last nineteen years. Nearly three million service members of deployed to iraq or afghanistan gotten millions of veterans. Some of the best trained people the world yet. They often struggle to find jobs when they come home. That's wrong and that's why tonight. We're celebrating the companies that go out of their way to hire vets. We're going to recognize them. So people understand this who we admire. Not just because it's the right thing to do but you know what is good business because this is still mad money. All right uncle. Sam spent fortunes training these people to be smart disciplined team players kind of employs every company should. And how can you watch. Look at starbucks for instance which is stock that just by the way is just been soaring year ago. We did the live show from the us air force academy in colorado springs. We're supposed to kevin johnson's kind of to come from seattle starbucks but everything is company was doing here since two thousand thirteen. They've hired thirty thousand veterans in military spouses with a commitment to bring in another five thousand more every year. They've also got dozens of military family. Stores located your major basis and staff with. That's the spouses. That's not the only reason why starbucks stock rocket higher. Yes shit adviser pfizer. Vaccine us. But i think it speaks to the quality of management's leadership now because starbucks has been leading the way on this issue. You know what i said. I'm just gonna shoot him. Email onto kevin. Johnson say he who else besides starbucks has the ethos j. p. morgan target and home depot in particular. Jp morgan gigantic bank and target a part of a larger organization. Write this down. Maybe want to help them. I know i'm going to it's called the veteran's job mission in twenty eleven j. p. morgan along with ten other major companies committed to collectively hiring one hundred thousand veterans and servicemembers. Leaving active duty by the end of the sheer they call it the hundred thousand jobs mission however they booth into that i target ages ago. This organization now has more than two hundred member companies including target. And they're planning to hire a million bechert so far. There are six hundred and eighty six thousand. And it's not just hiring it's also about retention and portion unfortunately the pandemic wrench into the million man plan like everything else right but they're well underway. Jp morgan wound is hard more than sixteen thousand veterans to servicemembers since this got going in twenty eleven and they've invested millions of dollars in veteran own business as for target. I can't find it up. Date number right now. They got a lot going on. But i'd take their cue from starbucks. When it comes to supporting their reservist employees get called up for active duty for example by studying it benefits. Both these countries are amazing. Jamie dimon has been again and again. And see of jp morgan leader nece and we gotta salute him for that. I've had my go rounds with him. But we suspend everything today on veterans day and salute those who are doing their part. How about home depot. Here's a company that has nearly four thousand associates when thirty five thousand veterans. They're one of the most military from employers in the country. They've donated hundreds of millions of dollars to bitch causes. I've had the privilege of being introduced their culture. By mr frank blake. Who's allowed me to be able to contribute to something things say do for soldiers who are handicapped to get out of a being when they're done. We're fighting target and home date. Despite as i like to call got me thinking about the two largest retailer's in america walmart amazon turns out. They're both leading the way to in two thousand thirteen walmart's set up to two hundred fifty thousand veterans. Oh they blew through that one earlier. This year we're talking. Two hundred sixty thousand of july first another thing that walmart does right staggering number more than forty. Four thousand hires aboard had been promoted. How about that in the last two years. They've also brought in thirty one thousand military spouses. Walmart gets as for amazon people. Complain listen listen up. Four years ago they pledged to bringing twenty five thousand veterans and military spouses by may of twenty twenty one. Have they done it wa this so far. They've are forty thousand and they've got another six months. This is another good place to work. If you're reservist or a national guard person now who else is doing the work how about. Jj who ceo of course else scores. He's a retired army captain. He's a real standout job. They joined the veteran's job mission in two thousand twelve and there's such a great employer for active national guards. People in us even got an award for that fence part. Two thousand seventeen how see. Xp has hard so many veterans that one and five of their employees has served in the military. They got a dedicated pipeline for job. Africa's coming from the airforce. Maybe some of your seat goes out. There should call csx to see how that happens. How do we have a dedicated pipeline. That's what i'd be doing. If i watched show bryson. Oh boy led to a few years ago. Veteran is more than ten thousand veterans on its payroll out. I've inside brooke and they'd been number one in the military friendly rankings for three years in row. I've got more. No one comes up. Econ it's one of the world's largest infrastructure can saudi companies fifty thousand fifty six thousand nine thousand or vets shadow to deloitte the probably how to counter. They've got a ton of accolades. If you wanna know more about this stuff. There are lots of resources. Online military dot com has a top twenty list that shows you which companies employ the most veterans in absolute terms. Gotta hosted vince contracts. You'll make sense. Let's say. I see booz allen north rahman l. three harrison last night. Ba systems laki. James tackled comes on soon. Jim you've got to see a sea international boeing company that i've mentioned several times in the last two weeks is the stock you have to by raytheon. We had great hayes on just thought that longer. General dynamics we please come on. I think you're doing you're doing turn right here. The ones that stand out ex lime utility stryker medical device plate and then of course general electric's force publishes. Listen the best employer for veterans of more subjective question but we from which they use an extensive survey to determine the rankings in terms of publicly traded companies. While you got proctor and gamble number three booz allen a reilly auto parts. How about that vm. We're one of our cloud king sanjay pollutant value. Congratulations xl a utility lower down. The military times runs their own list. Twenty twenty rankings came out in august. I enlisted comcast. Nbc universal network. Hey i guess management greasy rest of the top five southern company. Us bank general motors and pfizer. There's bank of america boeing again and accenture who listen. I know you could say jim. Why are you boring with us. This is not boring. This is what we must do as americans. Here's the bottom line every year. we do this show. I'm stuck by just how successful. These companies are who are a lot of time after time. The businesses that hire tons of veterans tend to be really well run with good long-term prospects starbucks. Jp morgan walmart amazon home depot. Jj risa proctor and gamble comcast. I'm not commending him all comcast parent company this now. One last point over the last ten years we've seen gigantic companies make huge commitments to hire more service members and their spouses but many of these goals have been reached. Seems to be good for business. Giving a lousy job market maybe it's time for disused ropes men bishen. Welcome this sleaze. Get some ambitious plans. Going again need him bishen. These people don't just deserve to be hired. We as shareholders want and need them to be hired by you. Let's take a few more questions. I we have a question from kevin in hawaii. Hey kramer kevin marine currently station out of hawaii In my question to you about investing is sometimes service members. Get a obey sum of money for re enlisting it could sometimes be upwards of fifty thousand dollars so for somebody with such a little knowledge of investing. What would you recommend doing with this lump sum of money. You've got you Thank you so much. I've been watching your show with my dad's a kid and happy birthday to the marine corps. My brother mitch on november tenth base again. Happy birthday the marine corps. It's crazy washy father and you've got to be look. You are in the midst of a situation where you do not have time to analyze the stock market. That's why you should be an index fund. I prefer the s. and p. five hundred index fund. Right now also. I'm liking the russell two thousand. I'm like neka spore. Cap companies are making comebacks in this country. That's what i would do. Our next question comes from kicked from again the. Us air force academy kit. Jim carey giger beautiful air force academy in colorado springs with uber this morning their quarterly revenues were down seventeen percent from last year with rides down fifty percent but uber revenues. Were one hundred five percent a proposition. Twenty to win in california. What do you think about this play. they just want a very big victory at the ballot box which make it so that they're not going to have to be compensated as much. As people feared uber. Digits consolidate. They got the deal with postmates which is really good. You're absolutely right. It's the food service business that is excellent. They've got to get out of the roots that don't make any money. And they got to get driverless cars. And therefore i think you should hold onto it but on nine encouraging more be bought right here because that's a lot of things that have to go right. Next up is a question from and from the us military academy at west point ananth. Hey jim it's not. Go from chelsea michigan. I'm guy in charge of investment club as well as the oc of the portfolio for the finance team. I had a couple of questions of pinterest as i appeal last year and in the last couple of months had some extreme growth. Do you think we should buy or should be cautious about that growth and do you think it's sustainable for pinch to continue in this upward trend. All right thank you so much for your time. Absolutely see pinch of probably served in the armed forces. I do think pinterest is double in the last. Let's say six weeks and that's too big a move So i think you have to wait. Let it come in. But what when it comes in by it. Think those pictures out to be a gentle kind place advertise and the advertisers. Absolutely love it. But let's buy it in the fort's by much looks different these days but one thing remains companies committed to hiring veterans. Tend to be winners. And we want to talk about you on our show for doing the right thing. For your people your shareholders and your vets much more money had quitting my exclusive with the beyond me. Now this one's about earnings ever taste client is beyond hope. Ooh or withdraw option. Then on duty help find the keanu. Investing for the long haul. Don't miss campbell. Ceo former army captain more class. Find out if this stay at home. Theme can continue to deliver with the vaccine and with the covert vaccine on the horizon. What impact could it have on the bank plays. I'm gonna give you might take as our special salute to choose. Addition of mad money continues. Stay with kramer support for this. Podcast comes through carbon in the age of online retail. Buying a car should be no different. That's why carbon invented a brand new way to buy a car. That's one hundred percent online without leaving the comfort of your couch. You can browse and buy from their selection of almost twenty thousand cars. And once you've made a purchase your car comes to you delivered right to your door or you can go pick it up. From one of their coin-operated operated car vending machines hundreds of thousands of people a purchase from carbon and loved the process. Olive carbon is cars. Come with a seven day return policy ensuring you get a car that fits perfectly with your life not happy exchange it or return it for a full refund so check it out the nation's fastest growing auto retailer at carbon dot com that c. a. r. v. a. n. a. dot com. What the heck is happening to the stock beyond me. The plant based stock has always been a while trade last couple of days been absolutely seeing quitting hideous seventeen percent decline today in the wake of disappointing quarter before we get attorneys. We have to talk about yesterday. After mcdonald's plant burger at i. It sounded like maybe beyond meets been moved out. That may be there now. Competitor then seem to ply mcdonald's that they were one of the potential suppliers talk was able to rebound however. Just got a hand on the mcdonald's situation beyond me reported some ugly numbers. We're talking about a thirty percent readiness with company. Losing twenty eight cents per share in a suspect is six six and profit magic plane temporary disruptions due to covid nineteen turf perfectly reasonable but the miss was pretty breathtaking hence why the stock rolled over. And we didn't get any clarity on mcdonald's. Relation has been a tough few tough few weeks company for everybody a month ago was one hundred ninety five bucks now. Twenty five into that decline no basically trading where it wasn't all this still up sixty five percent for the year. So this pullback pm buying opportunity because a lot of the deals that are coming or is it getting too tough. Let's with ethan brown. The founder presence of the meat get a better sense of the quarter and whereas companies headed mr brown. Welcome back to my money. Thank you so much jim. It's great to be get appreciate that. Okay so he can. We have in front of us knew pizzas pizza hut beyond beyond right on it. New deal just announced today meaningful for you. Oh it's fantastic. Listen we've been working for a long time with your arm and the leadership. There has been fantastic. With david. Gibbs or kevin and folks throughout the organization Just leaving what. We're trying to do helping us to get to a really superior product that i think will consumers across the country and over the uk. So we're we're really excited about this. Launch peace outage conic brands. Been part of the american fabric for longtime my childhood. I love the fact that i can now. again beyond and we're going to really be aggressive about promoting and going to go into battle with pizza and the pizza market to make sure that we come out. I'll tell now you are a very tough on yourself and mark nelson was very tough on himself. He's your excellency. If oh. And i'm just gonna quote says as ethan describe a moment ago we experienced a meaningful deceleration in our financial performance during the third quarter causing. Our results falls short of our expectations. A lot of us believe that you've just as secular grower and it'd be inconceivable that you would have a decline even if you had as you say the full brunt of covid nineteen so can you somehow maybe reassurance that it's just the unpredictability of covid nineteen and not some deceleration of the enthusiasm. That consumers have for barbara beyond it absolutely is a hundred percent relate to go ahead and and you know. This reminds you bender graham quote about Market and short-term being voting machine in long-term being weighing she and we are building a brand is of global significance in local wave. And we're doing that. Quarter after quarter. What happened with covid is we had a very large runup in purchasing in retail in the second quarter. There's a long tail that throughout the third as freezers stocked and full but even with that record second quarter with a hundred thirteen million in revenue driven by strength and retail and we went to about ninety four million dollar quarter in q. Three so when you're talking about miss if say a miss against what and for me yet expectation that we were going to somehow single handedly turned back on the food. Service sector was short-sighted. We have to wait for the food service sector to come comeback in earnest for us to really see the type of growth that we're expecting and that's happening today With pizza hut you'll see more from us over the coming months and so i'm very optimistic about the future is characterizing. This year more anything else is the volatility in consumer behavior vote in retail and in food service. So we're seeing some pretty encouraging numbers in recent months That would be more reminiscent of what you might see in the middle of the summer. But i wanna cautioned against forming expectations for the fourth quarter based on that because again unpredictability is really The name of the game in twenty twenty as cova continues to loom throughout the economy. But here's the thing if you peel back the numbers and you look at what we're actually doing in retail we're up a hunt sixty three percent this year in our in our retail We're looking at household penetration and continues to increase. Its at five point two percent of now one of the things. I'm most proud. Repeat rate or ep. Rate is now almost fifty two percent of the fifty one point high. That is really really strong mostly. Pg companies would be happy with a thirty thirty five forty percent repeat rate so r.i.p rates continue to to increase look at purchase frequency and the buyer. Both of those number also continued to increase. What is a bahraini means it more households now when you think our household penetration are also buying more beyond meat right so even covert economy. We're seeing all these really really strong drivers. So i i think. People maybe overreacted to some old numbers of analysts. Add up instead of thinking. About how just company doing in the midst of you did did over the celebration and it's not really fair look. The analysts wanted very much to you to beat the numbers. It's not like they were but there weren't setting a trap for you by any means. I don't know it's just just what the challenge is withdrawing. God's food service significantly lower levels demand relative to year ago although again improved. But i think what really got the story. I think convoluted everything he told me. I think sounds great. Was this somehow everyone. It wants to be excited about. Mcdonald's deal that is not a deal right. I mean i mean. If i just say listen i think you are in the running along with tyson and along with nestle's and you hope it works out. I think that would be a more advise posher to take them one. That seems to believe that they are about to put your stuff in their stores but you also have to have beyond meat on the name right so i think they respond to give and i want to be very respectful of mcdonald's is trying to do it believing plant platform. I believe is trying to do there. And the only reason we issued some clarification yesterday with because of the misunderstanding. I think people had around. They've developed their own burger right which is not the case As i said before we're just gonna have to be patient on this. I believe that our relations with dials is very strong. Were involved with mcdonalds. A number of different fronts. Were doing things now to prepare for things in the future that involve mcdonald's I just can't go out and speak for the company which supplier chosen or or who they're going to be working with choose nestle's nestle's is a very powerful company that can do a lot of things. Globally they may choose tyson which is a company that desperately needs some good news. They might choose you. They might choose all of you what i want. People do is own. The stock regardless of mcdonald's don't get mcdonald's into the mix because that may not go your way right. I think everything on scene all the investment. Were making here the scaling. We're doing here which suggest that the relationship is really strong. And that's really all. I can say you know if you look at how bill portfolio of quick serve restaurants. You've seen work. Who donald subway. Seeing the work done i will. Kfc now with pizza. hut in china taco bell. So we continue to build this very new. Ck a del taco etc. We continue to build as very strong portfolio of quick serve restaurant partners but the key for us is to not get ahead of us farmers. Let's let them may be announced. Let them them position the products they want to. And that's what we're trying to do. Even though it's difficult yesterday given the movement to stop mr right. But at the same time. I mean i think when i read this you talk directly about the idea that it's in everybody's interest to To use you but at the same time the in maybe they didn't wanna talk about it because it was their day. I get that. But i just think that the idea of that something is going to happen. Here is going to hang over this stock forever and you can get away from that. You said it'll be can't specifiers. Cooper mcdonald's tau interplay mclamb burger but we think that it would it was with the in everybody's best interest to use our brand and resist efforts to not use it. They don't want to use your brand. They don't so. I was thinking. Yes so i was speaking in general about the space and the of the Other hours not again like ill. Qsr though dead debuted burger king. But they're not really the one they should do. What's best interest of their brand in our java supplier. It has to be a service to that. And that's really what magician is and it's been a real privilege to work with them. It's been a privilege to work with all grants. Don't these are brands. That i grew up consuming part of our our country and our fabric. One of your service down and i want to let them roll out in in the. Let's the strength of the story. Is the secular growth of situations involving non cow beef. It trades tastes every bit as good and is getting better and better for you. And i don't want the story convoluted Online work at your copy. Why whether mcnall yes or no. Mcdonald's i mean the point is there's a there's a wave your on it and it to be inconsistent and talk about your fair to in a a again. I want to caution people against drawing conclusions over single quarter. I mean we are all about the long-term to control. And so. I think he's watching what we're doing through the building or business one of the common that r- opening facilities in china right. I am broken the eu. And we'd just purpose civility on the east coast. I would have to be thinking very differently about that. Our growth somehow slowing farren. Tell you airy all right. Thank you very much. Ethan brown cylinder presidents beyond monies back into the jim cramer mad money. I'm connor murphy. Sophomore west point and a proud member of the one investment club. My dad graduated from the school. Twenty five years ago. And i'm proud to be carrying on my family's legacy who yeah. Hey mister kramer. On jim miller from west bend wisconsin a fourth year at west point. Cajun today astronauts here from texas. I'm currently a first class dead at west point studying computer science. I want to thank you. Your continued support of the armed forces. This is the most important thing that we do have money. We celebrate veterans. okay. I remember when my late father was alive economies. This is the show that i wanna go to. This is what you do best earlier. Tonight we highlighted named the company's. They're doing the best job. Higher nation's veterans as part of our annual salute service show. Now i want to take a step further and speak with one of the handful of veterans in the cease week. I'm talking about more class. He's the president. Ceo of campbell soup. Who's also a former army helicopter pilot. He retires captain almost as important he played point guard or west point's basketball team for two years now he runs an iconic american package. Food company class took over at the beginning of last year. And since then he's pulled off a magnificent turn around but because his veterans day we want to talk about how his time in the army helps him run a fourteen billion dollars. Business and why veterans makes such great team members in corporate america. Mr klaus welcome back to money and happy veterans day. It's an honor to you all right. Thank thank you so mark. I don't think people know what happened here. I don't think they know that you came in after. I regard this my own view. One of the most disastrous overpay. Acquisitions you could do. Which is for snyder. Lance of which we don't think of now because you turn it around that you had this take a move. You entertained a move. That is so painful. You took a company that this was born in two thousand twelve bolt house for one point five and you had to sell it for five. Five hundred million. These are moves that you had to do dispassionately and accept the fact that there were casualties on the field. How much did your army training help you in making those difficult decisions while i think one of the one of the greats Privileges of my life. Probably after being eric was the opportunity to lead men and women in the forces. And you know i. I've often said there's not a lot of organizations out there that at twenty three years old turned elusive leader of twenty thirty men or women in the pursuit of rather complex mission. And i think it does teach you some very valuable lessons That are quite applicable in the world of business. One of those lessons really about folks. You know when when you're setting out to lead an organization the military that direction needs to be crystal clear it needs to be simple even the complex. Make it simple. Make sure everybody in the organization or on the team understands what you're trying to accomplish. And then lead in a consistent way where everybody's wrote in the same direction and i think that is the story of campbell. I it was an opportunity for us to to read your act a little bit. The you know address a few of the issues that we had on the business realized copy on a relatively simple on the very powerful focused message to move the organization forward so i have a lot of gratitude for my time in the military which really did serve as a tremendous education. Did it naked you more comfortable making tough decisions that you've seen other ceo's not be willing to make well i think if you're clear on the direction of the destination right so what are you trying to buy into the decisions that you're making should be in support of that and so although never easy choices to make him You know certainly anytime. We're making decisions. That impact businesses are people. We're going to be very very conscious of it. But if you're clear on where you're going and what we're trying to accomplish. I think those decisions made good compelling strategic sense for both the teams within the company and hopefully for investors as well as a helicopter pilot you obviously have to maneuver and make moves at our. Let's just say difficult to be able to turn up but also at times even radical. You made a radical move to be able to move a lot of your advertising to streaming. I've seen what you've done with pretzels. For instance this is i- gra. hana classic. No consumer package could come as dumb what you've done. How are the results. Because it was a pioneering thing to do well. You're jim you. And i've talked about this before you know. There was a lot of discussion debate coming out of the fourth quarter about the investment. We were making a media. Even as we were navigating some spy opportunities. We were still investing behind the brands. Because we saw this is a unique moment of millions of new households coming into the campbell's business and our opportunity to retain those a householder. The list the great news is a lot of those. Households are millennials younger households that have the potential to being part of our franchise well into the future and so we had to learn how to better market and communicate in. The reality is very different in how we attract and communicate to those consumers as we might have with a more traditional cable consumer and a lot of that had to do with our emphasis around digital and not all digital is created equal. What we really look for is the place to engage consumers in meaningful ways with relevant content. You really need to fight the age of just knowing up advertising on a website that is not going to get the job done but programs like you're striving with roku have been great examples of our ability to blend great content with terrific placement to retain and motivate and create relevance consumers. Okay now is this relevance going to be testing by the fact that we have some point nets here year. Get a vaccine. We're theoretically we can go out and have terrific time to be at home and campbell. Soup was representative of that period. That awful period our country. And we're done with it. You know what. I'm sure that we all share in the excitement of potential backseat. But as i've said before. I think many of these trends that we're seeing whether it's cooking whether it's in ho consumption whether it's snacking experiences that are happening at a greater level of frequency and that batching up what i believe to be a very unique and differentiated more than voglio. I believe well positions us well from the pandemic so i like everyone else. I'm excited to see a vaccine and what that means for our country. But i also believe that our company in the work that we've been doing our brands will last well into the days beyond next question on way overboard i do not care. I know time tell me hiring vets. How great fantastic. Jim i can tell you that. There are so many attributes of military veterans at what they can bring the corporate america. It is really an extraordinary source of talent. That is out there. I'm really excited. We have two relatively new partnerships of campbell's once called higher purpose. And as you might know one of the things that we've been working quite hard on is making sure that we have laboured that we need in our manufacturing facility. We worked with higher purpose. Who specializes on attracting a military talent. And we've been able to hire significant rate capable. Talent through that source. Were also working with a group called american partners. This is a mentor ship program where employees from within campbell's harder with a veteran and health and ready for that corporate america and i really can't imagine a better purpose 'cause than helping those have served our country find their way or well look. I am really took the time out. I wanna thank you for your service and you just great representative of your company and of the of the academy. Great to see you sir. Very much that's more clouds president. Ceo campbell soup. You wanna be my guess. I'm not going back into the burn. It is time for special salute to service this of the lady random money when we get back and lightning round is over. Are you ready scheme. Data legroom because kyle in tennessee. Kyle admi doing fine. Good call you will ask about the a orgy. Yeah you know what. I'm gonna put him with yeah okay l. Atp because i think those fellows are real honest in their out. There oregon doing a great job. We are now going to jennifer in maryland. Jennifer who yom kramer jennifer. Hi so my question is regarding amc. I read the company could run out a calf by year. Then and i know they are offering private theater rental degenerate supplemental income so with the progression of the covid vaccine. Do you think. Amc is going to make it past the pandemic without declaring bankruptcy but we tended to tell you that i do adam. Aaron runs it. He's real good guy. But i think that sometimes there are tasks that are just a bridge too far in that as amc And i'm not recommend entertainment place right now because it's a too tricky and industry but taking michael in new jersey michael. Hi this is mike. Thanks for taking my call I'm an airport. Better than recent grad Would seductive dot com results and let them thirty. Hr finance platform should be more demand. People on on my are more likely to get hired at normalizes. Normalizes cloud fourteen percent lower than occupied. Look they abide and stock was workday. No too soon. I really like workday. And i think i know a better. Because butchery great job but this is not the time zone. The cloud stocks. We want them to come in. We want all his shorts to pressure all over and then we will strike but not yes. I can we go to jonathan california. Jonathan today mister kramer i thank you for honoring. All veterans and knowledge shared with the big coast. Guard buoy to your your group that you thought might fuck is yeti. We have loved yeti since eighteen but it is up another four points today. We need yeti to cool. It is a great stock and a great company. But i cannot recommend some people come in on twitter. Ain't kramer how did you put me and fifty four blah blah blah. Can we please wait for ten percent decline. And we need to go to alex in texas. Alex jim through cavalry regiment. At fort hood hood excellent. What's up keo vista outdoor. Day are not just bullets. They're also camelback at a variety of outdoor brands and they are very inexpensive company that i suggest that you buy as soon as the market opens tomorrow and other lightning round. Hey jim my name is jason. And i'm a senior air force academy first class killed person. Here of the united states air force covering remember army navy played for second. We are right back right. Look like twitter and keep us honest. Always checking social media in part because propaganda mclean masochist but also because i want to say this morning i got a real good one. A young investor complained that i bahri him fang facebook amazon apple nevis. Google got questioning. Of course i've been recommending these names for years and years and it's still abuse even for twenty twenty but sure if you boil them big position late last week you walked into a vertebral buzzsaw when the vaccine used broke. Yesterday i get it. So what do you do with think tech. Stocks are rolling over visors miraculous. Covid vaccine seems to make them. Let's say less attractive. I you need to understand the vaccine situation yesterday. I chase down all my doctors for you. When it will be available. I got a ton of contacts in new york. Medical community do wanna charitable contributions. Their verdict you'd be lucky to get your shots by the spring zeros and that assumes you pull strings which i would not do it. Means we've got two full periods of earnings before substantial numbers of people start being immunized. Yep six months cova winner and right now. It's spreading like wildfire. So what exactly does that mean for fang okay. Facebook's become a fabulous place for small businesses to get a foothold online and one line remains the best way to shop until next spring at the earliest right. Now this is two hundred seventy dollars stock. I bet it has no more than forty points of additional downside here which can take it almost all the way back to where it was before before the pandemic that may sound like a lot. But i'm trying to give you the real floor so you can buy some ahead of that if you want to apple's different because it's not just a copay stock it's also a binstock you take away. The trade tensions with china you throw in the worldwide wide out of five g wireless networks. And i think this is a terrific story as he's better than it was a week ago. More china-friendly white houses just more important to apple than whatever boosts are getting from the pandemic writer. Amazon's tough if you roll back. Its covid gains. You're talking about roughly thirty percent decline. The stock by were still my hedge fund. I'd sell amazon right here right now. Simply way even a terrific holiday season. As i'm sure it will not worth the risk in a rare transaction. We actually sold some amazon from my travel trust. They don't worry. I will explain it and tomorrow's eleven thirty. Am action alerts plus dot com club. Netflix's is tricky to washington like the last quarter. I bet they won't like this. Either once pfizer's vaccine is them hits. The market next has problem because people are desperate to go out and do things. They're tired of being cooped up at home as much. As i love queen's gambit net flicks simply isn't worth what it's selling for get vaccine than ninety percent effective then you're going to have a decline. You're on the other end alphabet. The parent of google is a bah by. They had a fabulous quarter. Even the travel. Your sector wasn't even advertising. Finally monetize even youtube. I'm gigantic fan and thomas curry. Who runs the google cloud. He's a force of nature. Keeps coming in pants. So and google are great. Facebook's push amazon and netflix overvalued ensured for is cancelled but apple. Google get their own spin off. There could be even better than the original. Hey there the better call saul hangs breaking bed. I as we end our show tonight. I wanna take a moment to reflect and to thank all the amazing veterans service members who participated in today's show of. What do we wish we could have been in person really supporting saluting. Those who serve is a long standing tradition of made money and we are proud to have a following among heroes year. We were mile high on veterans day at the air force academy where we spoke to starbucks. Ceo kevin johnson. About hiring this we've been in west point honoring the long gray line talking to amazing and west point grad and ceo of. Jj outscore ski and many times. They've had this studio filled with to the ranters with veterans and their families including my own pop who was a sergeant in the pacific in world. War two in the sixth army. This year is different. It's a privilege to be in the room with those who serve but this year it was not in the cards. We were honored to have those voices in our show today though and we afford to shake their hands again hopefully some day su like say there's always a bull market summer and i tried to find a just for you race here omit money. Jim cramer seat tomorrow. The news shepard. Smith starts now. Cnbc's workforce executive council is the premier group c. suite human resources executives from leading companies across the country. It offers a members. Only portal jot plus exclusive industry contact with access to breaking news calls and digital networking experiences the networking resources. Hr leaders need now. Apply to the workforce executive council at cnbc councils dot com slash w. e. c.
Mad Money w/Jim Cramer 11/06/20
"Today every answer matters more than ever before because whether it's about health deliveries or finance some things just can't wait. That's why ibm is helping. Businesses manage millions of calls texts and chats with watson. assistant it's conversational. I designed to help your customers find the answers. They need faster no matter the industry. Let's put smart to work visit. Ibm dot com slash watson assistant to learn more. My mission is simple to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always more work at summer. I promised to help you find mad. Have money starts now crater. Well money longer kramer that people make friends have just trying to make some money. My job not just entertain educate teach putting context. So call me at one. Eight hundred seven three cnbc or tweet me. Cimh creamer the market cool off today. Before rebounding into the clothes for mic session dow ultimately sliding sixty seven points declining point. Three percent nasdaq advancing puna four percent. But come on. let's face it at this point. All eyes are on next week when we come in on monday. We'll know who won the election. So how do you respond simple. You should do nothing why because it looks like once again that we are going to have divided government and with divided government. There's not a lot that the president can do never has been able to never will bide might be more aggressive about protecting the environment or fighting covid. Nineteen less about cracking down on china. Of course he's got all these different departments. That can make rulings. But i wish i could say something simplistic like cellular trump stocks wouldn't that be easy trump stock trump stock by biden stocks. I guess i gotta get a new button. But the only viable trump stock is new or steel maker. And i would never sell that. They're real good company sure. Trump's can very friendly to fossil fuels because dime business leading oil companies. Drill everywhere has perversely hurt the whole industry because now there's a massive oil other than chevron pioneer i think the whole group remains an investable businesses. Do love trumps tax cuts but with divided government by probably can't even roll those back on the other hand. A biden presidency might mark the beginning of a more friendly policy toward china. Personally i think we need to take a hard line on the chinese government. They don't play fair so neither should we. However wall street hates the trade war because it's bad for corporate earnings and there's nothing bigger than corporate earnings right but this is not mid trade policy so we have to factor in what it would mean to have a truce in the trae work. Still we might have to put cabinets some of the stocks we followed factoring a biden presidency. Which seems very likely to point even if trump a never concedes the wettest that my let's get to the individual stocks in our game plan. I'm better week starts off with a genuine bang with mcdonald's reports on monday. I think he's doing incredibly well because it's easiest place to pick up food in the covert nineteen right. I mean the king of the drive thru economy and the drive through economy is what we find ourselves in power. It's my favorite way to play the coming hydrogen-fuel-cell revolution. This is a company that spent years lost in the wilderness. But now finally israel orders if fuel cells are in thirty five thousand forklifts. It's the real deal from occidental petroleum. Oxy's call it. I want you to listen. You know why because it'll be an object lesson why you need to avoid world stocks. Some analysts are going to get behind it. They always do. Oh urges that you please don't get suckered. Here's an album we've got i. F f international terrorism fragrances report. It's a really good company. But it's been a stock that's been dragged down by his to nami of selling and that's important because a very complicated deal with dupont. I f f has actually long history of delivering consistent numbers because consumer packaged good companies. Need the proprietary sense and taste to move merchandise. You know what in all my years of progress. And i started falling it in one thousand nine hundred eighty two. I've never seen in stock. This cheap. maybe you can get it's mo jo back this quarter when the dupont closes ruffling here. Simon property stay report. They're the biggest and the best shopping malls now. You may be surprised by how well they're doing if only because time is likely to be the last standing and that may have some cachet. They're trying to get out of a pre code deal to buy talbot another mo- operator though. I don't know how much they can say because tab reports the same time you gotta listen to this one because of all the pandemic driven retail layoffs and store closures. And that's going to matter when it gets you great unemployment number today relatively but you're going to start hearing about some wales retail soon. Now this week's really frontloaded. We're gonna find out about the renewed strength in the gross stocks when we hear from one of my favorites beyond me member. I got a vegan daughter and then we got ringcentral. Holy cow behind alan for a long time now beyond meets been missing quarters because they pushed prices down to make their meat offerings more mainstream. That is terrific long term strategy in for her short term short term which one you want their stuff to be under the price regular beef ringcentral cloud based communications software firm with video offering. That competes against zun now. I've liked that stock for ages can rally it to the quarter. It will tell you a great deal about this. Markets attitude toward gross stocks members. Been hot and cold. This week's been great for gross stocks then there to speculate vaccine developers and they both been on the show. Nova facts will while ago and then nobile form very recently now. They're both working on something for covert worth watching for for that. Even as i suspect wagering on the we're wagering when it comes to vaccines unfortunately there's too much competition so expect something good from the vaccine trial out in asia australia and let's just call it. A novi plate fell a mystery. Tuesday tuesday we get to read on housing one from dr horton the homebuilder from rocky companies. That mortgage lender that. I talk about with low rates in marcus. Fleeing cities for the suburbs and also the rural parts of the country. If only so they can have more legroom muller trapped at home during the pandemic. I bet they both have really quarters. Then we've got results from another vaccine place still it's violin. Tekere biontech is a partner with pfizer. Now they seem to have the lead when it comes to mass production i. I'm saying i'm confident. Advisor can have something good for us. By the way i also like corsair game we profiled that early speed because feels like the son of logitech one of our biggest winners. This will be their first quarter out of the gate. They tend to be good. Ones was the airpods reports and we love these industrial gas place. Their top competitor mandy posted a solid number. I was supposed to stop was up. But i expect more of the same. If even better from air products the candidates talks went nuts. Today see someone. The volume was many times the size of the actual flow to the company. But that's because the prospect of a biden presidency. They're trading like you'll legalize weed nationwide. Even though he only campaign on criminalized marijuana would still be a controlled substance. But you get the equivalent of a parking ticket rather than prison sentence for possession. That's not really a recipe for selling gumy's grocery store. That is it well. Most of the pop place money. There's one minute. I like in american when green thumb. And that does okay. It reports the clothes that i bet the numbers are going to be terrific. Be careful of the candidates cohorts currently up on a lot of fluff almost as crazy so electric vehicle place yet has to happen before things truly go their way. But i bet green thumb gives you a thumbs up and roadmap borsum be watching lemonade. No it's not a drink. Copy a consumer packaged into newly public company. That's using artificial intelligence to shake up the insurance industry. I expect strong results. I feel the same way about good. Rx and newly public companies are all reporting this week. It isn't app to find you. The lowest drug prices expect good things when it reports thursday morning i use it. I use the company. It is pretty amazing First quarter out of the gate tens again to be strong close thursday. We've got three biggies. Disney which stock act very well today cisco and applied materials other than what disney can save right now that we all that encouraging given the pandemic other than doubt well the disney plus offerings doing. But they've told us that cisco's been struggling but it's a cheap stock them dividend paying you to wait. Applied materials is part of a red hot semiconductor capital equipment. Co. work that coop is love right now because semi's on fire and i liked that one to finally on friday. We hear from one of your favorites in full disclosure coming an online fantasy football program poor a couple times a week called bull market. Fancy and i'm talking about draft kings so it's difficult for me to comment however we know the sports betting was a big win on election day and anything legalizes. Gambling is a big win for draft kings as well as by the way penn national with this incredibly positive week. Earning season is winding down. But they're still tons of important companies to hear from. Here's the bottom line. Next week it will be unpredictable. My bias remains bullish. It's been a good call. Hasn't it although we have to keep our eyes open because this is still a kind of crazy market and we have one of the best weeks that i've seen in years scott in colorado sky. Jimmy we love your accent. My wife and i watch all the time. I got to tell you. And you are scott y. Keep doing the door and show you what's going to cash about four months ago. The dow was at twenty six one. I think really in of course of course the market goes right up. Sway can be sure. That's why i always like to do things in measured moments because we know we need to get the money back to work. But i don't want to be hasty now that we went through all right right so we're looking for some kind of market signal. Downtick thought process something to help us decide when to get back in all right. We'll scotty let me tell you something and we're gonna get all of it happens. I mean just think about it two weeks ago on monday we had people just throwing stocks away. They were just like success and we had an analyst on friday monday. See this money. Say sell sell. Sell everything scotty. These things happen and when they happen which you have to have. Is that shopping and you put it in. Maybe by twenty five percent of the money went in. And that's how we'll do. It slowly gradually correctly a mario in massachusetts. Are mario a big buoy. Ah mr cramer. Thank you for taking my call. Of course my pleasure are so. I have a question about sony a position. Their longtime option long-term algae and. I'm wondering if i get out now while it's up or by trump off ship the s five is actually doing really well and i. Can i count this cell. It's not now. I like american sucks. More sony's short is a little. Those believe but sony is a great company it's always been undervalued is finally getting its valuation. I want you to hold onto how. 'bout gonzalo in florida saal. I super bowl. James from miami freud triple yada a. You what's going on not much not much good here safe and sound so jim. What the storied on dell upon Guiding on low therese is performing amazingly well in worship feeling. First of all monday morning to take out. Exactly what you put in. That's going to take at your basis or right thing. Who played with money. I personally did not like the way. This talk acted after the quarter. I thought it should have been up today. It was a big one point. Then gave it up so i want you to be a little more wary that this doc may have run its course for the moment but you know what he got a winner and you can let it ride as long as you take. That cost basis right. You must do that no matter what because all right next week is going to be a tad predictable. Don't you think all right. You know that. I'm still boys. But i do expect apropos. The second call there'd be moments to get in if you really want to tonight with more people looking for new sources of entertainment on the sit down with the cio. One incredible winning company and stock and ceo. It's take two interactive at the plan. What the video game maker is seeing in terms of demand bent as covert numbers. Continue to rise could stay at home place. Be worth considering sending down with the ceo. O get this of twinkies. That's right hostess. Brands see various. People continue to stock their covers and eat the darn fool heads off and under the radar. Kobe nineteen player. you may never consider. I've thought scoop with the ceo of the number one company to clean up the kobe. Best clean harbors so stay with kramer. Don't miss a second of that money. Follow at jim cramer on twitter. I have a question tweet. Gramer hashtag mad tweets send jimmy mail to mad money at cnbc dot com or give us a call at one eight hundred seven. Four three cnbc. Something ed or mad money in bc dot com goal explained the nine hundred nineties exactly sixty songs to pop warren hill. You ought to know the greater goal move past cheap nostalgia to something deeper and weirder and better. My name is rob villa. I'm a music critic at the ringer. And whether you're full of teenage angst or you feel bored old whether you don't know the song at all or you know what far too well my new show. We'll take you through the decade one song at a time sixty songs that explain the ninety s follow. Listen for free on spotify when you see clearing over one hundred twenty thousand new cova cases per day. That's terrible news. America but you know what it is working as something that is helping the stay at home names considered the case of kramer fave take two interactive software view game publisher best known for grand theft auto. Red dead redemption. That we've been behind literally for one hundred and fifty points now. This this was not supposed to be a big year for take two. But then the pandemic hit and it became wanted the best performers in the kramer covid nineteen index stocks. Spent the last few months digesting. Its gains though this week when it caught fire again when take reported last night. The company's shot the lights out liver us top and bottom line beat with management raising guidance for the full fiscal year stock. And run up into the quarter. But it's still tacked on another three point nine percent gain. That's how good the quarter was. And it's only a few bucks away from its august highs which i think it will take you out next week. Now today we got a chance to speak with strauss. Selling he's the bankable chairman and ceo of take two. That was before. The news came out that he's in talks with code masters of british developer focusing on racing games but he had a lot to say about the quarter of just pass and new consoles wanting next week. Take a look straus. Welcome back to mad money. Thanks great to hurt him. All right so strauss. I know you as someone who has been really kind of. Let's say flat when it comes to talking about what's going to happen in the future even happens fast in the past. But you didn't do it this time. You use the word stellar i. it's popped. you never used to word what major results stellar in. Nearly a billion dollars net bookings in the quarter beating a guidance beating expectations and great results across the board for all of our titles from grand theft auto five to grant up online read de production to read that online and of course. Nba two k. Twenty which is off to a great start and then releases like pga tour to k twenty one wwe battlegrounds orlands three continues to deliver list. Just goes on and on. So it's it's one of those quarter where everything is working across the board. Well now this is a quarter. I think people should understand that it is not episodic. That's what your business was years ago. People are still doing that. Ea this morning reported very episode. Quarter if disappointing at one of those things where it didn't come together and people start thinking well maybe the industry is much more hit or miss again but that is the opposite of take to you of actually got a model and i can model it. And it works your. It's it look. It was a lot of hard work to to get to displace and the biggest development of consumer spending which was Over forty percents in the quarter and that ability to keep consumers engaged during releases and inbetween releases has been transformative for us and for the industry as well. We also have a bigger bigger mobile business. And that's a business that keeps clicking along our social point games or fifty five percent in the quarter. I have to disagree with you on something. This notion recurrence the biggest. I think it's misleading. I think what's the biggest is the number of people who have either rediscovered or come in may because the pandemic i was stunned when people of all sorts coming in who had never seen a video game and then stay. Yeah so. I i think that is part of the story. I think the pandemic reintroduced people and introduce people to this world of interactive entertainment. Were you not only get great graphics. Great stories great characters. Great gameplay but you can enjoy all that in real time with friends all around the world and create new communities and at time particularly if you are at home it's it's extraordinary and i think people are realizing as the world returns to normal that this can continue. This is a great form of entertainment enegagement. We liked to consume entertainment with other people. Now we also have next generation consoles coming. I know young children strauss who can't tell the difference with nba two k. They cannot tell the difference between the real game and the game. Nba two k. what happens with next consoles. Yes so it's next week you're gonna find out really soon. We'll we'll actually with nba two k. Twenty one will be the only sports title in market for over a month for next generation. Consoles were also bringing battlegrounds three the next generation next week. It's an incredibly exciting time. Of course in the second half of twenty one a five and detail are gonna comfort next ten as well and You know one can only imagine what's going to happen because we're having another record year seven years after the initial release for grand theft auto online. Someone said to me one stop was down two bucks. Strauss will refuses to give us a drop date for grand theft auto. And i'm like ok guys. It's there's been six races that he will give you the don't don't understand. He drops it when it's ready. I mean you're strauss i. This stock has now moved. Phenomenally since i met you and yet the same jackson keep coming up when people realize. Hey maybe maybe. I having foolish objection. We never argue the market. We know that we'll always trade on fundamentals. It's our job to be the most creative. The most innovative in the most efficient company in the entertainment business if we keep putting out the highest quality titles people show up now. I was also astonished. East sports each time. It grows and grows but female to k. e. sports new cohort stress. It's growing and it's great and i am. We're thrilled that. We have female players. It's about time we expect that to grow and we had a great third season and it's still small businesses. You know i. it's it's not significant to earnings at all but were investing in the future. And i believe e sports. I believe specifically these sports will cluster around a small array of titles and we hope an nba to kaley will be wanna one last question. Company bikes doing cement manet. You've always spoken about organic. You generate huge amount of cash flow but you also earmark some of that cash flow for people who aren't doing as well or who need help because you are someone who favors equality and realizes be equality of opportunity. What are you doing. I'm glad you're asking that question. It's been you know this has been an extraordinary year in a tragic year for so many and are labels gathered together and have donated more than fifteen million dollars for organizations that are focused on covid relief and on addressing systemic racism and will continue to give money we also because you asked about him. We also support numerous scholarships to bring a diverse array of people into our business and we have a dedicated scholarship at nyu in game design. So much more to be done that we more to come. I'm thrilled that our team. Our team is so excited about sharing some of our great success in the interest of increasing diversity inequality within our industry in the absence of federal government or any government is actually doing something. But i think extraordinary for people who are in extraordinarily straits. Thank you very much and actually a great quarter scale sell. Nick scalise chairman ceo of take to interact. It's now a word from our sponsor boost with facebook. Who's podcast both business with david fisher features unique perspectives and insights from some of the world's most interesting business leaders and small business owners. Insights like this being in fear is a learned behavior in. It's something that the world has put on us now. Don't get me wrong hard times. Come life happens things do happen. But you have to pull from that place of the chat within. And i just haven't let go of that. That's from iran. Simone author co founder of fearless fund. You'll hear her along. With courtney shall scipio inspired by net events design and rentals as they discuss. How tragedies and obstacles can be turned into triumphs. Get the inside story on the importance of resilience plus gain insight development new perspective and discover. How real connection can lead to real wisdom in the world of business listened to boost my business wherever you get your podcasts. Now we're seeing creasing horrifying cova numbers and the weather is about to get too cold for outdoor dining. Remember what works in the stay at home. Economy stuff like packaged foods. Take hostess. Brands connex snack. Food company you know of is maybe the maker of twinkies ding dongs. Ho the nets and of course hostess cupcakes. Now this is not been the greatest stockton since it public twenty sixteen but this year the company feels like it has really gotten its act together yesterday morning hosts this reporting an impressive beaten race. Quarter stock jumped. Three percent is before you on a bit more today. This things back to its highest level since january although it's still pretty darn cheap selling for sixteen times next year's earnings estimates could it have more room to run. Let's check in with andy kelly in the presidency of hostess brands. You had a better sense of companies prospects speech kellyanne. Welcome to make money going to be here. Okay so andy let me ask you. There's nothing like a treat like what's behind you my man. I just love i love. I love hostess. Everything you make but i want to know. Is this the kind of food. The comfort food that people want in america in the morning these days in the morning in the afternoon and at night. And you're exactly right ninety. Some ninety percent brand awareness and consumers love us snacking trends an indulgent snacking both in the morning afternoon. We're on trend before cohen. And it's just accelerated the in-home behavior You know it's a brain. Consumers can trust through brands. They love you mentioned. Some of those terrific were number one and done. That's a number wanted. Cupcakes and consumers take solace in some challenging times. We have a nearly twenty percent top line growth but some of that is because you made an acquisition that. I have to tell you i. I was worried about because the puppies at canadian companies. Are they going to integrate that but it looks like the integration is done and the businesses together working perfectly. Yeah absolutely well. that was. One of the appeals swatted. We we moved it from an independent distributor model to our consolidated warehouse model during a pandemic. And did it flawlessly hitting our targets at lower costs are synergies are going to be close to twenty million dollars. We targeted fifteen twenty and to be able to do that just credit to the team. But you're absolutely right. It fits within our business model. It's brandit has niche number one shares. We're going to be able to grow it. We're gonna be able to expand distribution of it So we feel really good about that. We're talking about wortman. Vanilla wafers mikhaylov. You're the only way for that. Sugar free that tastes like short. I call it sugar-free dumb. You're able to enjoy cookies. Have a great time with an still be able to indulge within the category which has an emotional benefit to us. We all we snack. We gotta do it in a balanced way and workman fits that lifestyle for those consumers that are looking for that. Okay so let me ask you. There was a time when this two different bankruptcies came public didn't do that well initially and then you came in what were this. What's the to the success that you've had to make it. So you've even get the leverage down to the what were you announce the stock buyback faces the heavy lifting of coming out of bankruptcy. And i call them the second founders so the second founders had to redo a business model they had a great brand drift sub brands they build a new model Brought it back to consumers with rate appeal and building that distribution was really import. We're now in the in. The next phase of that were grown business engaging with consumers innovating it tacking on a new park on. Great emanate as like workman so we really have an expandable model. The deaden second founders really rebuild an agile culture performance base culture are re redistributed the brand. And now we're on the second phase of growth and i actually think best value creation out front of what i also think that you're doing something i would've i wish you and are both in philadelphia would know five no from your accent. Bien told me up on tastes cakes. We always were trying to figure out why they didn't innovate. You're doing Cheesecake to nets. And you're doing chocolate caramel. That's what i would cream cheese. I want to stuff to be different each time. I go and you're pulling it off. We do a combination of innovation. We have will be called limited time offers which really appealed to seasonally to consumers when they're in that mode we have flavor extensions within our core brand and keep the brand fresh iconic hundred old brand staying fresh and relevant today takes innovation but then we also have innovation and moves into consumers into new usage occasions or another ways to use it. Our doughnuts typically. Don't answer either in sleep or bag with now. Have a snack packed on that student. That's on fire is portable communicate snacking so 'innovations our life with allows us to attract new consumers to continually grow. A lot of these brands are brands. That i'm not as young as you as i like to be anymore. But these brands of my generation and most of these don't translate to younger consumers. That's not the case with your brand now. It's not the case. Were innovating matter of fact. That was one of the beauties of the. There's a lot of things but the beauty of our current sales is able to attract new consumers new forming households within our plant. We really have to businesses. We have an in home eating business. Either you buy it for in home or business either take it or read it at home and we also have our immediate consumption in the front and grocery stores or in stores. We're able to grow our business. Courthouses business was over six percent which is really good for package. Good business and also given our media consumptions band. But those new consumers are younger new households being reintroduced in the brand and coming back and buying this again a two-time the category rate is really what innovation does for your quality products. And a terrific. Well any well let me ask you one last question y by backstop get rid of all that debt. So hostess doesn't get in trouble again. None of us let my wife and i sucked into used number. Because we thought they weren't gonna make the stuff anywhere our our our authorization to buy one hundred million dollars of stock back by the board was all about confidence in the business. And the flexibility to be able to give a dollar back to our shareholders so we haven't executed any of that yet but it gives us the flexibility to do it related to leverage we deliver this business given the reliability of our our free cash flow a very quick the about attorney year. We'll be about four times plus or minus at the end of this year and still investing back in the business is our number one priority tack on mna is next than even emanates not available. We'll be able to buy back stock and still love her next year in a very comfortable ring is confidence in a business as be able to give cash back to our shareholders when that value you really well. Congratulations on the turn. Remarkable brands a lot of people given up. Read the articles and book like going to close. You're doing anything. But you're one of the faster growers in the whole business. Indicates presidency of hostess brands. Thank you so much sir. Thanks for having all right guys. This is a real easy one. Remember because the single is t w and k. What do you think that's from. Twinkies met monies back into the brain all sorts of companies creating new businesses out. Basically whole cloth to deal with this pandemic take company. Called clean harbors is the leading play in the hazardous waste disposal business. And i've gotta tell you long. A favored the show if you're getting hammered earlier this year because it is so much exposure dirty cyclical industries that needed strong economy. Which we know we didn't have clean harbors has made an incredible comeback this week on wednesday. The cut reported terrific. Quarter even though. Their sales suffered heightened up on cost to the point where they could earn ninety cents a share when the only one twenty cents even better clean harbors has developed a nice business doing kovin to contamination. They could be worth one hundred million dollars this year. That's very nice. It goes stock surge in the mid fifty s to the mid sixties. This week. it's still off. Its highs and there could be some more upside here. So let's take a closer look with alum. Kennedy's the chairman. President and ceo of harbors more about the quarters copies pawsox allen. Back to make money. Thanks for having me back us. Great to see you sir. Now i think it's important to recognize that people have to understand that even though year year-over-year year you may not look like comparisons. That are that good quarter to quarter you at a sneak. Seventy million dollar improvement sequential basis. How is that possible. Yeah we really got hit in the second quarter and we really came back in the third quarter and i it really looks like businesses really turn back on again for us and as you know when we do have these kind of Disruptions like we've been having with the. Kobe hurt spot hurts our business but on the other hand we got a significant amount of decontamination. Work like you mentioned the nets. That's pretty typical to our history. Well let's talk about that. Because i think people have to understand in south africa Superfund sites so to speak. But let's say a nascar race track meets clean harbors right absolutely. I mean Every automotive shop a manufacturing facility anybody that uses oil or chemicals relies on clean harbors to handle their hazardous waste disposal and then periodically. They do have spills in new up work for sure. How easy is it to. And this is a personal question but clean a sports stadium because i want to go very much the super bowl but i don't want it to be some place where the building itself can get me sick you know. We've we've done almost ten thousand decontamination at this point and People really rely on us because our people are trained. They have the right safety gear. Pp happy right equipment Even back twenty years ago when we dealing with anthrax the company has a tremendous reputation in experience. You giving customers confidence that we can take care of any kind of contamination and we continue to see a big ramp up in this part of our business right now and the hopefully. It's going to go away soon with you. Know with the virus and vaccine come. You know something we don't know of course yet who is going to be a pressing the united states. But there's a moment of your conference call. Someone brings up fast now. My dad worked for three. M is a great company. They are involved in this litigation. And you talk about the need. The possibility of a federal mandate now you would never get that under president trump. Because frankly it's not really been a focus for him. But i have to believe that a president biden would take a hard look water contamination. And they say this is not acceptable. And the only copy i can think of. That could handle. The job is yours. Certainly we think the fast as an opportunity like pcb or back in the seventies We own a number of generators and landfills. We know how to treat a passing groundwater. I think what would be really helpful to have a federal program. have auto wrecker. I think each state today is trying to take it upon themselves. But i do believe that we need a federal mandate or federal regulatory environment that we can work in here without that. I think the saints are often prone to settle. They want to settle because they want to make a little money. They don't wanna do wrong. Nobody's trying to groundwater so everybody takes it seriously but it's states don't really have the capability and we've advocated a lot of what normally would have been done at the federal government level to the states and they're not as early as seasoned as table handle these issues absolutely. I think there's a lot of unknown. And i think a lot more testing needs to be done but clearly because of the chemicals that were talking about the us particularly with fire foam and how that's been used throughout the years you know there's quite a bit of this material aaron. It needs to be safely managed and i think the states could use some help from the federals programs. Now when you're used to be know it's kind of interesting lot of times we did have you. There were a lot of spills it seems like maybe the pipeline companies have they gotten. Let's say more proficient at not having spills or is this. The current government not as as draconian as previous covens clearly We've seen a huge reduction since their early nineties after a open ninety during the About these incident. We've seen a huge decline of because companies a much more Cautious much better plan An insult ira vent businesses relates. The oil oil spills has really declined. When you see large hurricanes coming through like we had this year we do seem to still get big events when we have these natural. You know Rather weather events but the oil companies particularly have done a great job both of changing the whole network that they have out there one. That's question Because you guys got the hazmat suits this. Covert is former dangerous than we think isn't it. There are a lot of people saying it's the flu. You don't have to worry about it. You know the big death rate anymore. This thing seems about as infectious saying i've ever seen. Yeah absolutely in. Our team has just done an amazing job up there in responding to the to our customers and also doing it safe. We've had a very small amount up fifty thousand people We've had roughly about three hundred people with kobina and really have no ex examples at all of anybody. Getting at work so We i think we've done a really good job protecting our people out there but it is based on what we see. You know highly contagious for sure. All right well look. Could you see you and thank you for doing the job that you're doing because boy do we ever need it. We got to find someplace that we're safe. And maybe it's a place. Just cleaned up by clean harbors mckinnon clank rbis chairman. Presencio always sees her. See you watch. Look there the pros. We need pro spam mice back in the brain with performance and then the lightning round is over. Are you ready skied. Nevertheless john in georgia john professor kramer. It's an honor sir. Pertemps longtime taller here Thanks for all the great advice through the years. You've taught me retire early. Appreciate that tyrod doctor. Solar solar edge man. Yeah they miss that part of wayne and that's why people didn't like it. I don't galvanic got slammed. Why don't we just stick with first. Solar best in show and i know can do get a president biden knows these days. Then maybe that stock whatever a tailwind from the white house. How 'bout ryan for ryan. Yes for boo jimmy. Chill oh man the house what's going on the atkins time longtime friend. What's up. yeah so chill man. I absolutely love this company. And i need to know if i should love the stock to the writing of four quarter beat. Jp morgan just piped in on the situation last week. I'm wearing their headsets right. Now have their boy phone and pod. Mike all my desk and they're fantastic. Four k camera on my display here at my home office. This company has partnered with microsoft and soon all know are two darlings of work anywhere corporate culture and seemed to media sneaky. Plan that that okay. They had so many great people in the organization including recently variable-speed yo people best in l. t. formerly known as traffic now known as holly what do you have all right. Good company Very high quality stuff a high end stuff on the logitech guy lower and more gaming oriented. But i'm not gonna go get. I think you've done your homework clearly. I think you got a good one. Now we're going to go to rome in florida role Jim in the house of the man couldn't be better. Thank you for asking how you doing. well doing. Well question. I have for you. Tonight is the stock of workforce w k. Hsa let's e. ev stock workhorses. Bit of a show horse for me. I wanted to buy one. I'm going with the plug power which supports next monday. So it's gonna get put a gun to my head. I'd say take away by it. But i think one bauer is the way to go. Thirty five thousand forklifts using hydrogen cells. What we want. I'ma hydrogen guy. More than i am an guy except for tesla. How about been in georgia band. Jim questions about a company that uses the crypto currency exit within payment that companies money graham. No many grandma. Just go by crypto. I liked bitcoin situation. So therefore we're going to do even though money graham up by pay pal. Because dan schulman is going wall. End with crypto. Let's go to eric. In california eric to talk about fourteen. It took symbol f pmt. I like cybersecurity. I liked that one. It's one of my faves and we have you. Wow you know let's interesting. That's good interesting book. so you know palo alto. Networks is by faith and i like craft strikes. I'm not gonna put this. One in a champions award are the breeders. Cup thank you. Tommy mcgrane ethical gradulate. Do for the big win today. But i am going to say that it's okay. Let's go to in missouri iran. Would you bought by. Fellow bowl alibaba. Im pounding the table to buy. I was actually cluster. Come trust is is handled this and you know what i think that a winner there in alibaba what take one more. Let's go to maybe both the second down long time for iraq boy from california. I'm a longtime listener. First-time caller in your show out to all my gay friends. Listening in your show on my phone or a podcast hearing my data. Okay and i really enjoy the entirety offer. Could thank you so much for all that you john. What's going on. Stop the good waste. My question is about a pet insurance company. The number of heads in the us has been growing at a healthy rate. But the cost of taking care of petros risen. Okay i liked hemp. I like i debts. I like Chewing at seventy which one this. This is the insurance one. It's a turn to church truth. One squid we pet insurance problems. Pet insurance is very expensive but that this company a lot of money why because it costs a fortune when you go to bed without and that legem luger is sponsored by moore drew. It's the earnings stupid. Yeah twenty years ago big time democratic strategists and cool guy james carville like to sum up the clinton campaign message as it's the economy stupid since then it's become a political truism. You want to win an election. Look at the economy. A lot of people seem to think. The stock market works the same way economy. Strong forget good numbers like today's jobs report than stocks will go higher right not so fast that used to be the case. As recently as five years ago. I wrote a book with a chapter devoted to explaining the relationship between the unemployment rate and the stock market for most of my career. You could practically set your clock to it. But that was before the pandemic which has turned the world upside down including financial world. I in order offset the damage from cova. The federal service gotten to businesses bailing out publicly traded companies backstopping. Their bonds second employment numbers more. A reflection of how small medium sized businesses are doing but those businesses aren't listed on any stock exchange. They don't trade third and most important. We no longer have one coherent economy we have to. We had the regular economy. It's a makes a good bit. And we have the covert economy and that that economy is total fire which brings me back to the earnings their tons of us companies that flat out benefit from the pandemic right now. Those companies are practically printing money. They don't need the regular economy. They were doing. Great during the lockdown back in the spring to consider some of these true blowouts of just today square the payments company married. it's a payment tech company. fintech makes these trick point of sale systems. You can plug into your phone. Just reported magnificent quarters stock flying up thirteen percent not long ago. The company came up with a new concepts. Tash asked which is the fastest way for businesses to transact with each other think of cash app is the business casual version of then mo. There wasn't much excitement for this thing. But when we saw squares numbers this morning cash was up an astounding. One hundred and seventy four percent. It's the triumph fintech over the backs next up. Cvs health. we're five percent today because it finally straightforwardly better than expected quarter even go back in a partial lockdown. Cbs's essential retailer plus. Don't forget they've got a huge health. Insurance business edna politically poof. For at least the next two years. Because you've got to government then you get the streaming video place. We expected big quarters from roku the king of cord cutting and the trade desk which helps run digital advertising campaigns but the actual numbers were insanely good. And that's how roku attack them with twelve percent while the trade desk shot up twenty six percent following. Don't forget to take two interactive when we talked about other video game publisher we just heard. Ceo strauss zone. Say show that the businesses definitely on fire now. Maybe you think. I'm cherry picking a handful of kobe winners. That reported great number city come on. I violated dozens of companies over the past two weeks throwing facebook. Amazon apple mugs On earth this story's clear. Forget the economy. It's the earning stupid. That's what's driving these companies in almost takeover like boobs. You know what to say. There's always a market somewhere and i promise. Try to find it just for you right here on mad money and i've got to taste something with this market. Let's field it's too hot. I'm jim cramer. And i will see you monday. The news list. Shepard smith starts now i want people to feel like they just learn something. We have journalists in the far corners of the universe. I can't wait to get all of those resources under one hour. Long newscast where we can deliver the facts of the day clearly and concisely in contexts and with perspective and tell people what's happening what it all means. Get the truth. Not the spin. The news. With shepard smith subscribe to the podcast today.
Beyond Meat Tanks, Ulta Beauty and Target Team Up
"Tuesday november tenth. Walk on the market fuller. I'm chris l. with me today. Jason moser good to see you. How's everything going all right. We've got we've got a bunch of things to get to. We have a retail partnership. We've got some home building news. Let's let's start here though on yesterday's show. We talked about mcdonalds mcdonalds at announced plans to unveil a plant based burger in two thousand twenty one and while that didn't do a lot for shares of mcdonald's did send shares of beyond meat down about eight ten percent and they are falling an additional twenty percent today after beyond meat. Third quarter report came out. They had a big loss. Revenue was much lower than expected. They had a couple of writedowns. This was this was not a good quarter for beyond me jason. I agree with you. I mean i am now going to try to cupcake. It wasn't a good quarter. I wouldn't call. I wouldn't call beyond meet a stay at home. Not necessarily i mean but in theory it should benefit from more time at home unless less eating at restaurants in and it did to a degree. I mean a lot of success was kind of pulled forward earlier in the year and we we saw that. Play out a little bit in this quarter. It's a little bit a little bit of a tale of two businesses here. The retail channel sales were up thirty nine percent from a year ago. food service revenue however down forty-one percent year over year in the reason why that really matters is because retail is by far and away the largest part of this business. I mean it's a revenue through the first nine months of the year so that difficulty in food service does does play out on the business but we can see. At least. I mean regardless the sell off today. I think there's a reason to be optimistic. The business based on its retail presence But but all in all you look at top line growth. I mean that was just under three percent total. That is clearly a problem for a stock. That's value the way this one is. I mean it's not a knock on the business. Don't get me wrong. It's new businesses young and it's growing going through a very difficult time but it's not profitable. No no free cash flow to speak of. It's not really a very high margin business either you couple all of that with a market where there are. Certainly there are a lot of substitutes. These days i think they make a good product and they have a very good brand. I think that resonates with a lot of consumers but it's a market where there are a lot of substitutes. So it's it's not something where they can just kind of go in there and own the market with no real no real effort into that point. I mean they are going to continue spending a lot on brand awareness on promotional activity. That will play off the financials in the near term. I mean what we wanna do is watch margins over the long haul look for efficiencies of scale look at potential pricing power with the business and if we see that play out then you see things. We're kind of turning a corner but just now not the best of quarters score. I'm glad you mentioned the margins. Because that's you know that's one of those two little bit into the weeds. But i think it's really important for investors to understand that that you can look at this growing market. And i think we all agree. This is a growing market. And you can be excited about this particular business and as you said the brand. They're they're opportunities for you can be excited about all of that but you. You really need to reconcile with the fact that as you said. This is not a high margin business. This can be a good performer. But this is not. This is not the kind of margins that we see with. I don't know collaborative software. No definitely not this. This really is not a tech company. It's not a sas business. i mean just just. Please don't confuse those with this. And it's always gonna be that way. I mean i think there is going to be a limit on the pricing. They can exercise. Just because it's it's food right. I mean it's food you don't typically you don't typically have the opportunity to exercise a whole lot of pricing power when you have so many different substitutes out there you know back to this success. That was kind of pull earlier in the year They're not seeing any of the stockpiling tailwinds that they saw earlier in their stockpiling was thing it really did exist. We certainly heard the kind of language in mccormack's call awhile back Know they have continued to suspend guidance. They just don't see they. Don't see enough clarity there to be able to offer an idea of of the next. Several quarters are going to play out now with that. Said i mean it. Along with the spending in the brand awareness. They are creating more distribution relationships. I mean the points of distribution grew fifty five percent from a year ago and that's great interesting distribution agreement. They came up with an not scratching my head. I guess i'm just wondering how big an impact this could the beyond burger starting in january. Twenty twenty one is going to be available at seven thousand. Cvs cvs pharmacy locations around the country and then beyond meatballs will be available at five thousand cvs pharmacy locations around the country. Now that's good. I think i mean in the sense that you're you're getting more distribution in seventy percent of the population is located within five miles of a cvs in efforts to become more of a of a healthcare company. They're they're that stoking traffic and so i'm trying to figure out if that results in meaningful bump in sales it's more just incremental. We'll just have to see there. But i do think the most interesting part of the quarter was the mcdonald's story my initial thought when i saw the cbs news was that it would be incremental. But i think we can agree that if it's not incremental if it's truly meaningful we're going to hear about that on subsequent conference calls. I'd imagine so. I'd imagine it reminded me of that. That headline a while back when we we heard that i think it was walgreens. Said they were going to start selling sushi in. I mean it just. It didn't really line up. I'm not sure. I really am going to walgreen get sushi but you know i mean they gave it. They gave it the old college. Try so to speak. I do think it's the mcdonald's story to me is fascinating because if you re through both companies calls if you read through mcdonald's announced on this on this mic plant platform and then you read through beyond meets earnings call and their reaction to the mcdonalds news. It very two very different reactions. I mean mcdonald's clearly is playing offense here in on the other side of the coin there beyond meat tried to. It's like they couldn't really tell you it was a good thing or a bad thing if they felt a little bit more on the defensive there. It's a little bit less clear from beyond meat perspective. How that may impact the business. I think we're trying to play down the impacts there whereas mcdonald's is like hey listen this was this was built exclusively by us for us in. It sounds like that's where. Mcdonald's is placing its chips. Going forward when it comes to plant based menu. They're not going to be relying on a partner like beyond meat whereas beyond meat is kind of hemming and hiring and say well. We're still going to be a part of the mcdonald's the universe and they couldn't really offer any color as to how it caught me. It sounded like it caught them a little bit off guard. And we'll see how that plays out. I mean that's that's not going to be fatal for the business but it is. It is a sign you know. Maybe other restaurant companies out there decide to try to do their own thing. We'll have to wait and see clearly. You know the food service business matters doesn't matter as much as the retail but it'll certainly be a story To keep an eye on if beyond meat had a rough quarter With d. r. horton's fourth quarter was pretty much everything shareholder could hope for profits came in much higher than expected for the homebuilder. They raised the dividend raise their guidance for twenty twenty one and shares of. Dr horton up. More than four percent. This morning yeah. It's it's been a very nice time to be in the home building. Business of your. Dr horton particularly over the last five years over the last five years generated over five billion dollars in cash from Home building operations growing consolidated revenues by eighty eight percent earnings per share up by two hundred and sixteen percent. And if you stretch that even it. Over longer periods of time there the stock is up almost four hundred and fifty percent over the last. Ten years Homebuilders conflict or the radar for a lot of folks myself included a. Dr horton is is an exception. I think it's the largest homebuilding company in the us as measured by the number of homes closed. Big focus on first time in first time. Moving up homebuyers be presence in southeast and the midwest and so the guidance that they set last quarter they set guidance for consolidated revenues in the range of five and a half to five point. Eight billion dollars in too close. Approximately eighteen to nineteen thousand homes in the actual numbers came in consolidated revenue well above their expectations and six point. Four billion dollars in homes closed of better than twenty point. Two thousand in so the growth. There has been really impressive. And part of that is due to the interest rate environment It's creating a lot of demand. There is clearly a shortage of homes which is playing out very well for. Dr horton tell you it. Looks like twenty. Twenty one is shaping up to be another good year. They're calling for revenue in the twenty four to twenty five billion dollar range. Homes closed between seventy seven eight thousand. That's twenty percent growth at the midpoint for both metrics there. It's hard to look through this quarter and finds something to be concerned about. Shares are up nearly thirty percent year today. And i know we've talked in the past about the housing industry writ large and sort of if you're an investor what's the best way to sorta get into that and you and i and others have said some version of the following sentence. Well don't lean with the home builder's you can get. You can get into the housing industry by looking at businesses. That play into that whether it's home improvement like home depot and lowe's or materials businesses like sherwin williams the way d. r. Horton has been performing over the last. I would say six to twelve months. They are they are making a good case for. Hey if you want to get into the housing industry. This is a really really solid performer. Right now i totally agree. You know it's it's a market that the yeah you're right we've always thought you know play plate and sort of an ancillary fashion and you you can touch the housing market by investing in a lender or do we have ellie mae for example before they were acquired home depot and lowe's above his denver while through the years in. Dr horton is just one of those homebuilders that it because of their scale because of their expertise in the space. They've always been just a very good. And then you add that you add to that the current environment. I mean it sounds like this environment is gonna be with us for a little while in at the end of the day. You need a roof over your head right. And so given that they're focusing on that first time and first time moving up homebuyer. That's a really. That's a big opportunity in just you know you look at the numbers that they've chalked up over the last decade. You look at their efficiency. The scale i mean it just. It's really hard to argue against what this business is doing. Target and ulta beauty have announced a deal to open make up and beauty shops inside of target stores. This is going to be starting in the second. Half of two thousand and twenty one. Essentially these will be mini versions of an ulta beauty store in more than one hundred target locations across the country. We don't know the financial terms of this deal. But shares of both are up ulta beauty shares up more than target. This really seems like a win win. That was my impression. When i one i read through this through this deal earlier this morning i really do feel like it's a great deal for both sides. I i would venture a guess that target sees more foot traffic than ulta on a daily basis. I think he'd probably agree with that. obviously obviously target has a massive footprint around the country and and elsewhere but i mean this is really this is really a domestic play here and ulta ultimate for has always been a really really good perform. I think they got caught in a difficult situation with The pandemic earlier on because so much of their success has really relied on on foot traffic and physical presence right. They have that dynamic to the business. That is that salon dynamic where you know if you're gonna get your hair done. You can't get that done. virtually right. You'd actually be at the place and you know when you look at things like hair care products tool services. I mean that makes up a good twenty five percent of their sales so it's not it's not crucial but it certainly played out on their financials earlier in the year. This deal with target. I think is really smart just from a number of angles for ulta more so than target i think because ultimately look cosmetics skincare bath and fragrance those those categories altogether throw hair care products in there as well. But you're talking about seventy five to eighty percent if not more of total revenue there in that really that really just lines up with the kind of stuff that target is selling to begin with and so i regard to the actual finances of the deal. That's that's unclear. And maybe it's just kind of you know a quid pro quo thing here. Where target gains traffic and alta gained sales by virtue that traffic target benefits from incremental sales from that traffic. I'm not sure but they're definitely going to gain another traffic driver so to speak and in a very relevant category. I mean this is a category that. It's very resilient i mean. It's just amazing to look at this. This market over the years in into to see its resiliency in and i think ulta ulta has a very strong brand in the space in and so for them i think he was always trying to figure out how they could go beyond. Just the ultimate store in. I think this is one way to do it. They've also made a lot of investments in e commerce and some immersive technology. Plays there to bring more augmented reality into the app to allow people to try things on virtually so to speak But yeah i think all in all. I think it's really interesting to see. How big the loyalty program is going to become with. With these two companies in their relationship combined. The mean there are a lot of things you can do with that and then add to it targets expertise in shipping and logistics. Right they own shipped in and they're doing a lot of great stuff with shipped and so i would imagine that'll be another another way. That ulta will be able to utilize those resources. That target has yeah. The loyalty program was one of the thoughts. I had because ulta beauty has done such a good job over the years and all credit to mary dylan. The ceo had ulta beauty. Sorta the way she has run this business over the last few years in particular but is there a couple of things to bear watching first and foremost and again. We're we're we're talking about the second half of next year that this is going to start but i think one thing to watch obviously is how quickly does target decide this is working for us and therefore we're going to expand this. I mean right now. We're talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of six percent of target locations in the us. So this i think they're being very smart and just sort of saying we're not gonna up up and every location we have. Let's test this. So if they start deciding no we need to roll this out and make this a priority in more locations. That's one thing to watch. And as as you indicated the loyalty program. I mean if this becomes not just a way for ulta to move more merchandise to more people signed up if they start accelerating sign ups into their loyalty program. That's a huge win for them. Yeah and i mean the way. These companies are using technology. These days. i mean it's it's they're doing great things with data and in you know the more you can partner up with companies that are thinking that way. Just you're finding more ways to personalize in in target no pun intended deals for specific customers for specific things. I mean you can just do so much with it. And i think it was interesting. I did notice they were saying with targeted. And they're gonna they're gonna be training a certain swath employee at target to really become beauty consultants. I mean you're not going to just go into a target for example and just by some stuff. I mean they're going to be resources dedicated towards you know giving customers information in different perspectives and ways to look at all of these different alter products. And you're not going to go in there necessarily flying blind. I think that's from a customer service perspective. I kind of feel like maybe that's attractive from an employee perspective. I would imagine there's some employees that light to be an expert at something like it's always fun to say. Hey i'm really good at this one thing around expert at this one thing. I've been trained in this one thing. It gives you a little bit more of a potential career path and in with the two companies together maybe that career path could go and one of one of two directions either target or alter in. I think that both companies seem to be doing really well so Yeah there's a lot to like about this deal obviously a lot a lot to learn. But i think based on what we know. A the like jason moses. Thanks for being here. He's always people in the program. They have interested in stocks. They talked about in the formal recommendations for or against so buy or sell stocks solely on what you care. That's going to do it for this edition of market flurry. This year was mixed by dan. Boyd i'm chris sale. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.
Wall Street Breakfast August 21: Global Markets Churn Higher On Vaccine Hopes
"Welcome to Ski Health as Wall Street Breakfast your daily source of Market News Analysis. Subscribe to this podcast on Apple podcasts. Gulag casts certified and Stitcher. Good. Morning. Today is Friday August twenty first and I'm your host Steve Brown. Our top stories today. Global Markets Churn. On higher back seen hopes existing home sales expected to show some pop and Johnson and Johnson cheaply borrows seven point five, billion four Momento. Deal. Leading today's news. Global. Stocks are trading higher after the tech rally in the US continues to show legs and renewed hopes for a corona virus vaccine. The Shanghai Composite Index rose point five percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was one point three percent. Japan's Nikkei tacked on point two percent and Australia's ASX two, hundred slipped point one percent. European stocks are largely hired despite sluggish data with the stock six hundred index gaining point three percent. Francis C forty and Germany's DAX are both in positive territory at midday. While US stock futures. Slightly higher two days removed from the S&P Five Hundred Index carving out a new record high. Oil prices are down slightly amid efforts by major oil producers to hold back output. In early action WTI crude oil futures is down point seventy, five percent to forty two dollars and fifty cents per barrel and Brent crude is down point five percent to forty four dollars and sixty six cents per barrel. And one more thing that you want to start the new day Tesla after cruising right past a two thousand dollars per share level now trades with a higher market captain proctor and Gamble Home Depot JP Morgan and Disney. In other news, the existing home sales report is due out today with a consensus forecast for five point thirty, eight, million home sales in July versus four point seventy, two, million in June. Bank of America expects a mark of five point, forty million. The firm also thinks bigger things are in play. The pandemic has led to shift from urban areas towards more suburban or rural neighborhoods where home ownership is more affordable. This is one of several factors underpinning the homeownership market previews, the Bank of America. While, we are confident that existing home sales. We'll see strong upside in the next report, we are less confident that it will similarly surpass the prior cycle high at least not yet. Last month homebuilders that were volatile after the existing home sales report included Dr Horton Katie Home Toll Brothers in Vr and William Lyon homes. Johnson and Johnson. One of the two best credit risk in the US corporate world borrowed seven point five billion historically cheap yields to fund a planned six point five billion acquisition of momentum pharmaceuticals. The offering price in six parts ranging from five year notes with a coupon of point thirty, five percent to a trench of forty year notes with a coupon of two point forty, five percent. The. Triple A. Rated J. and J. got a rating for the new debt of AAA from Moody's though with a negative outlook as the ratings agency expect slower growth from JJ's. Non Pharmaceutical businesses. FACEBOOK is pushing for legislation to make it easier for users to transfer photos and videos to rival tech platforms and a move that could e- some antitrust concerns a portability bill called. The Access Act is already circulating around Congress with bipartisan support. A hearing on the issue in front of the Federal Trade Commission is set for September twenty second. Japan's core inflation rate landed zero point zero percent in July to miss the plus point one percent mark anticipated by economists and register flat prices for the nation for the second month in a row. The lack of price momentum likely to keep the bank. Of Japan, continuing on its road of massive monetary stimulus and low interest rates to support government fiscal spending. The so-called core core inflation index which strips out food and energy prices rose point four percent during the month to fall short of the forecast for a rise point five percent. Bank of Japan governor. However, he co Kuroda is on record as saying that he views the risk of Japan falling back into deflation is low. CBS is seeking five point five million for each thirty second TV ad spot for the two thousand twenty one super bowl roughly in line with what Fox was drawing for ads in last February's game. That could be read as a reflection of pandemic uncertainty or a testament to the staying power of America's biggest television event. In another reflection of the times CVs will require advertisers on the TV broadcast to also appear in the online stream for an extra two hundred thousand while advertisers are seeking protection clauses. In case, the NFL season is a virus victim or the championship game otherwise isn't played. A US district judge dismissed portions of an SEC lawsuit accusing Volkswagen, defrauding US investors in connection with the automakers diesel emissions scandal. The judge granted VW's motion to claims. It misled investors when issuing more than thirteen billion of bonds and asset base. Securities and twenty, fourteen and fifteen but rejected as premature. The company's request to block the SEC from a painting injunctive relief and to disgorge profits. Preliminary. euro-zone pm for Aug drop to fifty one point six after fifty, four point nine mark was recorded in July. Companies remain cautious when making decisions on employment again, opting to lower staffing levels in August amid a lack of confidence in the strength of the recovery noted IHS markets, Andrew. Hawker. Flesh. Services. PM. Is stalled at fifty point one versus fifty, four, point five estimated and fifty four point seven in July. Flash, MANUFACTURING PM was fifty one point seven to this the fifty two point seven mark anticipated by economists and fall short of the fifty one point eight recorded July. PMI readings in Germany in the UK came in ahead of expectations all PMI lagged in Spain. Retail sales in the UK rose three point six percent in July from. June. To top the expectation of calmest for a gain of one point four percent. Overall sales volume was above the level seen before the pandemic according to data from the Office for National Statistics Sales including shops grew by eleven point nine percent during the month, which could be good news for burberry marks and Spencer and associates. Still the road ahead for the UK economy looks potentially rough with the end of the furloughs scheme coming in October. As of six twenty am today US futures are all set to open in the green with crude oil golden bitcoin slightly down. On today's economic calendar. PM I can flash is out at nine, forty, five am eastern time. If. You enjoyed today's podcast. Please be sure to rate and review it below your feedback is deeply appreciated. That concludes today's wall. Street breakfast thank you for listening for the best investment analysis and news on the web. Dot Com. Subscribe to this podcast on apple podcast Google podcasts spotify stitcher. You can sign up for other podcasts behind, the idea. Referees. Let's hope ups cannibus investing podcast and Marketplace Roundtable. Owns as well. A Great Day.
A Boring Business Rewarding Shareholders
"It's Tuesday July, twenty eighth, welcome to mark Fuller I'm Chris with me today. Mr! Jason Moser. Could you see him? My friend good to see you, Sir! Has Everything going going all right? We got a lot going on. We've got facebook squaring off with TIKTOK. We've got a couple of stocks hitting all time highs. We're going to start with McDonald's. I'm sorry they're a competitor there. That's a private company. We're going to start with McDonald's. Shares of McDonald's down a little bit today. Despite the fact, same store sales in the second quarter only down two point three percent. That's better than what we have been seeing from a lot of big restaurant companies out there. And Jason similar to the comments that we got from Coca Cola's CEO. Chris Kempinski saying he thinks this quarter represents bottom for McDonald's. Do you think he's right? Yeah. That's a it's an interesting perspective to hear from him, and actually think in McDonald's case could be right. I mean I think. When you look at this quarter when you look at. These? Numbers look pretty darn good. All things considered I. Mean I think that what we're going to see. As as discerning season rolls out, it's it's going to be the expenses that really separate the kids from the grownups here eventually, they're going to be companies that can deal with the with the ramp up in costs due to the pandemic. Way better than others. The McDonald's is one that is going to be able to deal that I think pretty pretty pretty good fashion, I mean it's obviously a huge concept. I mean being franchise means. You've got a lot of partners out there with a lot of expertise in their particular geographies. I don't think you can dismiss that I don't think you can discount that interviews remember not all that long ago. starbucks actually pivoted in their strategy. Going away from company owned stores in foreign markets to back to licensed stores. Because they wanted to rely on that expertise that boots on the ground. Expertise that locals have in McDonald's has that, too, so I mean I think that. This is a company that's going to always benefit from this move towards. Contactless drive-thrus. Always a part of the concept for the most part, and then they've certainly noted that. I think it's very. Interesting to note how dependent they are in some markets, though on their dining room segment, and if you look at their international operated market segment, which is a a large piece of the business pre Kovic, nearly seventy percent of customer orders were in restaurant across those larger markets when they close those dining rooms. Even for a limited time. It makes a big deal. It makes a big. Big Impact on on their financials even though they have the drive through to fall back on, so it's not all sunshine and lollipops, but given the situation. This is a restaurant company that's going to be able to deal a lot better than most well. You talked about the expenses, and that was one of the things Kim Ski was talking about on the call just sort of. In particularly their marketing how they have pulled back on the marketing, spend rightly so, but he was talking about it almost in the same way that Warren Buffet talks about his elephant gun. Like Hey, we've. We've cut back on marketing over the past four months or so. We think as our operations rebound in the second half of this year. We're going to be able to ramp up our marketing to a degree that we have in for a while. I'm assuming at least part of that would be aimed at first because. That was one of the things I was reminded of with. This report is. McDonald's, needs breakfast to be successful. They do you're right and I'm glad you mentioned breakfast because that's that's where I was going to go with this as well. They make Donald's. They don't need to mark it as much as others. Maybe I mean. It's obviously very well known brand already. With large presence at their, in despite the fact that they have recovered a lot of lost sales, like in other words, the the the the fall off in June, for example they've recovered essentially ninety percent of their two thousand nineteen tales from junior. The things are looking a lot better than they were just a few months ago, but that is the one sore point. I think for them. His breakfast in. It's not just. People aren't eating breakfast for dinner or lunch as much anymore. It's this idea that a lot of just aren't commuting anymore and so they're not selling breakfast for breakfast. And that that is a bit of a problem because McDonald's. You know I'm not the biggest. McDonald's in the world, but if if I had to go for for one meal I think it would probably be breakfast, they do it pretty well. And they're just that. That's fallen off a cliff, and that's not gonNA. Come back as quickly even though they had that lever to pull in serving breakfast brilliant essentially as long as they want. But, you know what that's. It I mean I it'll be. It'll be a slow recovery. It's it's. I don't want to say it's going to be a lost year, but it's GonNa, be, there's there's going to be a lot of growth that is lost this year, but but again I think McDonald's a company, and in a very admirable position they will be able to play offense while a lot of other companies were playing defense in that ultimately I think a workout well in their favor. If. You're a recent home. Improvement Projects have included painting. You're not alone. Second quarter profits for Sherwin Williams came in much higher than expected. And they raised guidance. I mean this this is. Gorgeous. This is about as boring a business as you could find on this planet, it's paint. And if you've owned this stock over the past decade. Good for you because it is returned more than nine hundred percent in the last ten years. Yeah, yeah, I needed five year hundred forty percent ten years I. Mean You said it? It's it's just always been. A good business to own a makes a lot of sense when you when you just think about from practical standpoint, and it certainly you remember that that Warren Buffett Berkshire hathaway. Benjamin Moore. I mean that is just the quintessential. Give me a boring business. Kinda Guy, right in so. Let's man the world. The world needs to be painted always in in certainly, Sherwin Williams is a company with a lot of the familiar brands. If you're a homeowner. If you've been doing any of that kind of work than you do know, there is a difference between a paints in in quality is manage in Sherwin Williams makes a lot of quality stuff I think. You know when you look at the numbers themselves. The company's grown sales grown revenue at a compound annual rate of close to ten percent of the last five years. So it's like you said it's not exciting. It's just steady business in when you look at the overall market that they pursue i. mean they are the clearing away market leader and essentially hold better than half of the market in painting and ceilings. Substances or whatnot, so they do have a massive presence there forty one consecutive years of dividend increases which you know, what that makes it Chris, dividend aristocrat. I think to me, yeah, the Cherry on top of this report. that. I don't WanNa. Say That's like. Unnecessary just. Or being cocky about everything I think they just know their business really well that they can go in there and raise guidance to the degree that they did I mean they they raise it any fairly substantial way it net income per share. They raised guidance for the year. It's being arranged of nineteen dollars and twenty one cents to twenty dollars and seventy one cents that was versus previous guidance of sixteen dollars and forty six cents to eighteen dollars and forty six cents. So I mean that just goes to show how quickly they think things have really turned around and again. That makes a lot of sense. If you're stuck inside if you're looking for stuff to do, a lot of people are undertaking home improvement. Projects in. I mean you can include that. Include me in that audience there to Chris. I've run at the Home Depot after we get done with the show today so yeah, I certainly see why. Sherwin Williams is continuing to do so well and I. Don't want to gloss over the raising guidance because we've talked about this before. Every company has a pass right now every company. Can come out and say we're suspending guidance and they're not gonNA. Get any blowback for that I was watching an interview this morning. It was the CEO of record been keyser, which is the parent company of Lysol which because it's Lysol. It's flying off the shelves. They make the stuff fast enough. With one of the questions he got was why you raised guidance. Come on. Like what are we talking about here and he? Very in a very straightforward manner, basically said look. There's so much uncertainty in the world. We don't think. We're just not comfortable doing that. And I think he's right in saying that so again. All the more impressive and to your point. I don't think it's Hubris I don't think it's you know. Rose colored glasses Sherwin Williams. is in their way in you. Look at the way. They've grown their business. I think in their. For lack of a better word conservative way, they're saying no, we really do think. What we are seeing warrants the raising for guidance yeah! I'm with you I kind of feel like. Feel like I'd I'd take advantage of the opportunity to take a pass and just be like. We don't really know what's going on this year. The maybe we'll revisit next year impossible. You could get away with sort of. Removing guidance from your your standard quarterly announcement. Anyway perse I mean if I'm running a business. I don't want to deal with that aspect of it to me. It's always seem like an arbitrary. Who really cares kind of you know part of the part of the process. Just tell me what your goals are. Let's check back in a year and just we'll. We'll go from there, but yeah to your point. It's not hubris these guys. They're not turnout, overconfident cocky! This business has been run on very very. Consistent way through the years in this is just a the result of. The market that they pursue and. You know some companies right now are in a far better position to be able to see what their business is. GonNa look like in. It's not just pain, right? We talked I think just a couple of weeks ago, but companies like Teradyne in cadence. Companies in tech you know in in chip design and software was on. Because, of those long design cycles, they see that clearly they're able to offer some guidance and even raise it in some cases, so it does depend on the nature of the business model, but I think regardless I still probably would try to take a pass given the opportunity. Well and tied into. Games, we also got the latest results out of D. R.. Horton. Stock hitting a new all-time high after its third-quarter report, this is America's largest homebuilder and I get it. Mortgage rates are low, but typically when a home builder of this size comes out with this kind of report, and the stock hits an all time high. Historically that bodes well for the broader economy. Do. You think that's still the case or because of? All of the uncertainty around the pandemic. He's not the time to try and read into the broader economy. What we're seeing Dr Horton. I. Man That's a good question. I don't know if I would actually look at it and try to read too much into it at this point, but I do think it's telling us something. It's giving an in idea it least of of where the puck is headed and I mean this is. This is pretty fascinating story really over the last decade like Dr Horton. I've always thrown. Thrown homebuilders kind in there with energy companies for the most part I mean. They just don't really feel like they have the expertise in the industry. It seems cyclical and lot of capital expenses and kind of a old boys network because just never struck me as kind of the market. I was really interested in it now with that said if you invested in D. R., Horton Just just ten years ago after the financial crisis I mean you. You're sitting pretty right now. I mean the stock. The stock has performed tremendously well, and I'm trying to think if it was if it was five years or ten years where the stock has returned five hundred twenty percent I think over ten years it's it's a return five hundred twenty percent regardless when you look at the financials understand why it's really grown. It's top line and I think it's just because it focuses on this particular market in first time, homebuyers in first time moving up homebuyer, so they are not focused on that market wear. It people have been in the housing market for a long time, or they're looking to buy some big match. These people looking to enter the home buying market for the first time. In people who are you know moving up from that first time purchase at five hundred twenty percent of the last ten years phenomenal stone. The focus on the southeast and Midwest, and I think the real catalyst here. The question to ask is given what we know today about. The pandemic about how is changing the attitude towards the work environment, and where people are working from these days. Is this theory this notion of an exodus outside? Out of these cities into more suburban areas is that. Is that notion one that will play out? At least seems like there's the potential here I mean when you look at D. R. Horton's numbers. I mean net sales increase thirty eight percent to. Twenty one thousand five hundred homes. Increase thirty five percent value six point three billion, but they noted some interesting things here just in in regard to like in June, they talked about these sales numbers in May and June that really started ballooning. And unfortunately for them, they they didn't. They didn't really have enough houses. They didn't have enough supply to take care of what what was an accelerated pace of sales there, so so they are working hard to try to close that gap there, but but again you talk about a company that was able to offer some guidance. This was a company that was able to offer some guidance and. They see they see the rest of the wrapping up nicely partly because of the market they're focused on, and it's partly. Is Insane interest rate environment. If you'RE A first-time homebuyer looking to move up. Man Tell you Dr. Horton seems like they have something for you. In a lot of people are buying them. FACEBOOK has been trying to take on Tiktok with a short video service called Lasso. And after less than two years, facebook is shutting. Down as it prepares to launch. Something called instagram reels. This is going to come next month and it apparently comes with a sweetener. Wall Street Journal reporting that. INSTAGRAM INSTAGRAM is offering financial incentives to tiktok users with millions of followers in an attempt to persuade them to come on over to. Yeah well I mean that's what you gotta do right I mean. If you're in the position of something like facebook in you can either try to build it. You can try to buy it or you can try to. Build and then entice people to come over even if it's not necessarily something that's as good as you know. They're using at the current time and I. Don't mean to sound this way. It's probably gonNA sound wrong, but you know it just. It's the way I feel Chris It. Feels at least like. The more time that goes on. I don't know that Mark Zuckerberg has necessarily smart as we all thought he might be I mean I'm not saying he's a dummy. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that at all I'm really not just you hear the word genius thrown around sometimes I don't know that I really fully feel like he goes in the genius category by a long shot in the main reason is because if you look at facebook today. I mean. There've been a few acquisitions that have changed. The business itself given the business a little bit more of a competitive advantage in that it has this massive audience, but essentially it's just it's still the same facebook I mean they go in there, and they try to do things to steal audiences by building a snapchat competitor or building a tiktok competitor. Recently, they tried to build a pinterest competitor I. Mean I. Very rarely to those things work right. Users typically don't defect. A. FACEBOOK and try to pay more money at least content creators to get people over there create some interest but I you know I it feels like there is a along tracker attract record of them, trying this and not really pulling it off. It just starts making me wonder. Is facebook. Is this just going to be an an play I mean? Is this basically just kind of like twitter? I mean twitter the same thing. It's always been facebook to me. It's just the same thing it's always been. They've made a few acquisitions along the way, and that doesn't mean investors can't win. Maybe they can, but I start looking at facebook in the facebook of the future start. Wondering like is is, is this a company? Really worth owning? Is it worth the trouble I am starting to starting to feel like? Maybe it's not, but I could be wrong. So a couple of thoughts one is certainly an you know this because you recently exited your position on twitter. CERTAINLY FACEBOOK IS A. Exponentially more profitable company then twitter Oh. Yeah, no question there and the other. Is I I don't know. I don't know that I've ever looked at Mark Zuckerberg thought of him as genius sort of in the way that we categorize people in the business world as geniuses or or those who typically get that tag. Ulan muskets that tag Steve Jobs got that tag There are some people who who who give tactic someone like basis. I've I've always looked at at soccer as An incredibly powerful operator. He makes them. With his leadership team. He makes the engine the business engine of the facebook business work. For whatever you think of instagram that was among the more. Laudable acquisitions I would say of the last twenty years. I mean it's it's probably. Probably on par or approaching par with. Youtube. With Google Buying Youtube back in the day, which is one of those things with every passing year, more and more people are fewer and fewer people remember that Google video was a thing that Google built to compete with Youtube, and at some point said you know what. Let's just go to youtube with a big check and see if they say yes, and they did. so you know. So. But you know to go back to this story. It will be interesting to see if this work because clearly they have tried. They tried to make it work with this thing. Lhasa, which I've never heard of until today I know I'm not the target demo. You're not the target demo for this. So, it's entirely possible. Our kids have heard of Lasso but. This. If nothing else this this to me is a sign for anyone who's wondering. What's all the big deal about Tiktok? This is a demonstration on facebook are part. And, by the way youtube to is mentioned late in this wall, Street Journal Article Like Youtube is working on their own version to sort of go after this short video market. Whatever happened to fine. Why did that? Why did that get shut down? That just seems like it got shut down to early incompetence. Yeah, I think it was just incompetence. I think, there was just poor management on twitter sparked in a lot of that was just due to no vision and just sort of musical chairs of management there. because. Yeah, I mean it's it certainly seems like vine. Kind of had a really had it had something early on, and for whatever reason they just didn't nurture it and I mean yeah. I mean to your point I. Mean facebook obviously immensely larger and more profitable than twitter. I guess my my my. Parallel. There was just that you know. Is this a company that? For intents and purposes going forward, this is a facebook and instagram company and from hearing. They're going to continue to try to make acquisitions in copy. Other APPs that are out there stealing the interest of of of other younger audiences Is that the most compelling business to invest in I? Don't know I, mean maybe it? The user base that big. It's hard to argue against it. I mean I'm certainly not sitting here, saying. Sell facebook and I'm bear on facebook, but I started thinking about how big this company is today in what may be, it looks like in the future. It feels like we're rages on this, you know, Wash Rinse repeat this kind of what they do, and I'm not seeing any innovation out of a business where I feel like you should see a ton of it, and maybe that's yet to come I hope that is the case for now though I gotTa say, I'm not a facebook shareholder, but if if I was I'd be, I'd be disappointed. It'd be asking those questions. Last thing and then I'll let you go. Home Depot. Is there anything near the Home Depot you go to that? Like an additional reason to go, and the reason I asked is because the home depot that I go to is in this strip mall area? Sort of the western part of Alexandria and one of the shops sort of on the side from Home Depot is a Middle Eastern market called the Mediterranean Bakery and they make the most amazing homicide and Peter like freshly baked pita bread right there, so that that to me is always an excuse to go to home. Depot I'M GONNA stop at the bakery and if I feel like I. Haven't been the bakery in awhile then. I'll just sort of do the reverse me. Do we need anything at Home Depot? You're killing me here, man. There's the only thing that's there's frigging COSCO in memory. Yeah, we're not members that cost going. I want to go to costco like I. Want another a hole amid I mean it's just. It's not what I'm looking to do. Man. Yeah now that you think about it. I could go the other way. Go to Lowe's and then on the way home. You're swinging by Wendy's and you know Wendy, says frosties, Chris frosties. He's pretty good on a hot day like this. It is a hot there. Thanks for being here. Thank you. As always people on the program may be interested in stocks they talk about on the molecule man, formal recommendations for or against sin buyers stocks based solely on what you hear us going to do it. For this edition of market full read the show. He's mixed by Dan. Boy I'm Chris L.. Thanks for listening. We'll see you tomorrow.
Retail Heavyweights, Nvidia, Bristol-Myers And 5G Plays
"Welcome to seeking Alpha stocks to watch Wall Street breakfasts weekend edition our news teams weekend preview of upcoming. Ipo's earnings reports conference presentations investor days FDA decisions Barron's mentions and other key events that could impact stocks to set you up for the week ahead in the markets. Subscribe to this podcast on Apple podcasts. Podcasts spotify stitcher. Good morning today is Sunday may seventeenth. I'm your host Rena. Sure we begin with the breakdown of the week ahead. From seeking Alpha's news team. Investors are hoping retail giant alibaba Walmart and target Seti fairly positive tone next week with their earnings reports and updates on consumer spending trends next week on Capitol Hill Fed chairman. Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on. May nineteenth the Fed will also be in focus with FOMC minutes. Do Drop and Powell scheduled to be featured on sixty minutes on Sunday night. Of course the reopening of American business will also be watched closely by investors highlighted. Most dramatically perhaps by four general motors and Tesla all trying to restart their plans officially in the case of one a couple of wildcards to watch. We'll be the developments with China. Trade and the upcoming expiration of WTI crude oil contracts for June delivery in earnings news Softbank International Game Technology and by Duke Report on Eighteenth Walmart Home Depot. Kohl's advance auto parts report on the nineteenth lows target take two interactive an analog devices and mckesson report on May Twentieth Otj X. Companies Best by Nordstrom and Palo Alto networks report on the twenty-first Alibaba deer and footlocker report on the twenty second in Ebony News Shareholders Center State Bank and South. St will vote on the bank. Merger May twenty-first. Amc entertainment will be in. The emanate. Spotlight again there could be some news on the Uber Grub negotiations with video cruising into its Q. One earnings shares just off their fifty two week high and up forty percent year to date analysts. Say The strong share price action leaves the potential for some near term volatility around the earnings report and profit-taking however there are also strongly pointing to second half gaming rams new seven ampere products ongoing cloud. Ai tailwinds and upside presented by the melon ax and cumulus deals for Microsoft. The company's annual Bill Developer's conference runs from May Nineteenth through the twentieth virtual format. Microsoft will hold more than six hundred sessions covering information across a variety of technologies. Ceo Such Adela is due to give the keynote address also on tap next week a Microsoft security webcast hosted by Morgan Stanley will feature several executives in a Q. and A. Format shares of Microsoft head into the big week up fifteen percent year to date and forty one percent higher over the last fifty two weeks as for Bank of America. They have a series of events covering Bristol. Myers Squibb next week. The firm says it's time for special focus on B. M. wise product portfolio with topics ranging from future trends in one L. Lung cancer with Devaux to Bristol's big five launches to emerging developments in the multiple myeloma market noted B. O. Fa ahead of the call and meetings. We've you Bristol. As one of the more dynamic stories in the Bio Pharma Group from a pipeline and product launch perspective shares of Bristol Myers. Squibb's are down point two percent year to date. There is a lot of debate on whether consumers will ramp up their participation in outdoor leisure activities during the pandemic on the one hand theme Parks Sporting Events and movie theaters all have strict social distancing rules in place that may boost interest in outdoor options while on the other hand the surgeon unemployment. Ano- economy could limit the upside against that backdrop. The Twenty Twenty Wells. Fargo Virtual Power Sports Conference runs in a virtual format from the twentieth to the twenty first on hand will be presentations from Brunswick Corporation Harley Davidson Malibu Boats Marine Max mastercraft boat Patrick Industries polarize and Winnebago Wells Fargo Commercial Distribution. Finance will also give a talk on the financial end of the industry. Jp Morgan says it's thirteenth annual home building and Building Products Conference twenty features many of the leading companies and executives in the home building and building products sector heading into the event. The firm says it favors builders with lower relative risk profiles while across building products we largely favor catalyst driven ideas against the current challenging backdrop. We expect earnings visibility to remain material impaired as demand will likely declined solidly over the next several months updated the firm. J P Morgan's overweight rated builders include larger caps. Dr Horton NPR. Owi rated building products names include larger Cap Stanley Black and decker fortune brands home and security and whirlpool as well as smaller cap. Masonite INTERNATIONAL A report on video game sales from N. P. D. Group will indicate if the jump in software and hardware sales during March extended into April in particular Nintendo switch pro controller. Animal crossing title have both been performing well during the stay at home period with interest building up ahead of the console refresh cycle the catch. All for video games in the growing eastwards. Business is the Vanak vectors video gaming e sports. Etf which trades under ESPN THAT ETF is up more than thirty percent over the last two months and the top holdings include Nevada ten holdings activision blizzard advanced micro devices nintendo electronic arts see limited net ease. Zanga take two interactive software next on NC Soft Corporation and ubisoft this weekend barons mentions the stocks and themes drawing attention in. Barron's weekly addition. The publication says the hair trigger sensitivity of stocks dacoven nineteen vaccine development could continue as GlaxoSmithKline Johnson and Johnson and AstraZeneca move forward with their trials. The volatility could be even steeper for small biotechs modern Novak's and in Ohio Pharmaceuticals. If they're Cova vaccines fall through or make it to the finish line. The impact of the arrival of five G. is a second for suppliers qualcomm Ericsson Nokia skyward solutions and marvell technology as well as our reads. American Tower Crown Castle International AN SBA communications five G. Carriers Verizon. At and T. and T. mobile all say that the pandemic has not altered the rollout time line. Three back to back plays a run up the flagpole sanitizer specialist ecolab temperature sensing firm flare systems and barcode scanner seller zebra technologies are seen as potentially benefiting from office workers coming flooding back in the US. This week in our single stock focused recovering. Sorrento therapeutics with Brett Jensen. The stock closed Friday at just under seven dollars. Brett begins with the explanation of Sorrento therapeutic soaring more than one hundred and fifty and trading on Friday after announcing a potentially significant development and the Cova one thousand nine front Jensen gets into it at the outset. One of the major newsmakers on Friday with small biotech concerned. Sorrento Therapeutics the company's CEO announced just before the opening bell that Sorrento had discovered an antibody which has dubbed Sti. Fourteen nine that believes can provide a one hundred percent inhibition of Cova nineteen and flush out what's also known as the stars cove to virus from the body within four days. This antibody works by blocking the krona viruses. Spike proteins from attaching to a receptor on the surface of Health Service called ace to this opens the cell to the infection. Obviously if true. This is huge. News within an hour of trading Friday Sorrento has risen from Thursday's closing price of to sixty to share to just over four and a half dollars. Now the skeptic would say that the original SARS virus has been around since two thousand and three and the globe still got blindsided as we did not have treatments for the old version of the Corona Virus. One could also point to the agreement. The company signed at the end of April with alliance global partners through which it could offer up to two hundred and fifty million worth of common stock prior to Friday's big. Rally the stock had just north of five hundred million market CAP. One theorize management was trying to boost its stock price to raise additional capital at more advantageous prices. Given the company ended the first quarter with just over twenty million in cash on hand less THAN ONE QUARTER WORTH OF BURN RATE. That certainly seems plausible however if the company is right about. Sei Fourteen ninety nine and it leads to a cure. This could be just the beginning of a massive rally on the other hand. If there's more smoke than mirrors here Sorrento could easily do. A capital raise and the shares could eventually trade back down to where it began Friday morning just over two fifty a share as an investor. How do you play? The scenario one could buy the stock and employs some sort of stop loss order. This may or may not be effective tool in my toolbox I choose to action was the covered call strategy after Jensen goes through three different scenarios with the options. He concludes with this given these scenarios. Mike covered call strategy. Seems like the right one. This also why these types of covered call strategies have become a huge part of my investment toolbox over the past couple of years they are easy to master and with the recent collapse in brokerage fees cheaper to execute than they've ever been. I believe they are best used within tax deferred vehicles Roth. Ira's or rollover 401K's that way you don't have to account for short term capital gains every year which can be a hassle at tax time. If you don't have a good accountant overall seeking Alpha authors skew bullish on Sorrento Therapeutics with one very bullish and one neutral. That concludes this week. Stocks to watch. Thanks so much for listening for the Best Investment Analysis News on the web go to seeking Alpha dot com. Subscribe to this podcast on Apple. Podcast Google podcasts. Spotify stitcher you can sign up for other podcasts. Behind the idea alpha trader essay for F.A.S.T. Let's talk ETF's the cannabis investing podcast and marketplace roundtable on those platforms as well have a great week.
Apple, IPOs And German Auto (Stocks To Watch)
"Welcome to seeking alpha stocks to watch wall street breakfasts weekend edition. Our news teams weekend preview of upcoming. IPO's earnings reports conference presentations investor days FDA fifty decisions barons mentions and other key events that could impact stocks to set you up for the week ahead in the markets subscribe to this podcast an apple podcast google google podcast spotify or stitcher. Today is september eighth and i'm your host rena shirbow. We begin with a breakdown of the week ahead from seeking alpha's news team all eyes turn to cupertino on september tenth for the apple product event apple is expected to release to hire iphones a five point eight inch and a six point one inch oh LED and a lower price LCD iphone a processor upgrade and triple lens camera in the back are expected for the diversions. A new apple watch is also likely to be displayed while it's possible that new max air pods apple TV plus details apple arcade news and other gadgets could also be unveiled. If those reveals feels aren't held back for separate events pricing on all the above hardware will be interesting does apple management assume the december fifteenth tariffs on chinese imports won't be a problem economic headliners in the week ahead include the latest inflation numbers and a retail sales report that will be watched closely while the we could become around the trade news front with beijing and washington prepping in a positive way for an october meeting of high level representatives opec and allied non-opec partners are scheduled to be an abu dhabi next week to review progress and stabilizing world oil markets and we wonder what will bubble up from that meeting in earnings new seat chip dot com reports on september nine dave and buster's entertainment z's calar game stop and our age on september tenth aurora cannabis in tailored brands and september number eleven kroger broadcom duluth holdings report on the twelfth look for seeking out as earnings calendar for complete list of earnings reporters an adding a bit more color to kroger's report kroger is expected to report revenue of twenty eight point three billion comparable sales growth of one point seven percent and EPS a forty one cents when q two numbers are released the grocery store operator is seen by bernstein is having some downside protection in the event of an EPS guidance got with the possibility that the activists gets involved especially. If the stock drops back to unreasonably low levels bernstein says activists could look to force a merger on kroger her with another retailer for revenue cost energies shares of kroger are down just over ten percent. YTD the IPO market returns from crushing slow period of activity with pricing set for smile direct club ten times genomics analyst financial and september eleventh cloudflare spring works therapeutics and set suma pharmaceuticals on september twelve. There's a quiet period expiration on cross fit bancshares on september nine and IPO lockup expiration on canadian firm project one resources on the same day we works. IPO roach is anticipated to roll into new york and san francisco to gauge investor interest so far we works. IPO is having trouble attracting interest from large institutional investors a some reports suggest the shared workspace company is only being valued at around twenty five is billion versus. The forty seven billion for the last private funding round softbank has a twenty nine percent stake and we were parent. We co in emanate news. The comments acquisition of hydrogenic corporation is expected to close in september ninth shareholders at chesapeake lagging vote on the park hotels and resorts combination. That's up to ten the tender offer on auto connectin global group out of our international expires on september thirteenth companies with emanate swirling around them include jack pacific exulting systems and a mag pharmaceuticals in drug data news. FDA action dates arrivers ears pharmaceuticals suitable glucose gone rescue pen and art alexis ten panwar for IBS c. There's also an fda advisory committee meeting for immune therapeutics. A are are one one peanut allergy treatment and september thirteenth amgen will host a call for the investment community at the international association for the study of lung cancer twenty nineteen world conference at september eighth astra zeneca. An ally lily are also presenting at the lung cancer event in other. FDA news the government agency says it will provide an update on the investigation into the marketing practices of jewel next week while joel already shifted its marketing focus away from teenagers. The new ad campaign is under under scrutiny for colleen. Joel products away to quote make the switch from cigarettes vaping devices said joel spokesman ted kwong switching involves continuing to consume nicotine eighteen but from a different device while cessation is about getting users to eliminate their nicotine consumption altogether. The focus joel arrives with stakeholder altria in discussions with philip morris international for potential megamerger recode code commerce event returns to new york city for its third year the gathering of top commerce and tech executives focuses focuses on innovation this year speakers include rent the runway. CEO jennifer hyman walmart e commerce chief mark lore the real real ceo julie wainwright and atop uber uber executive volkswagen will showcase the production version of the i. D. dot three at the frankfurt. Autoshow production is expected to begin in november with the i vehicles anticipated to be delivered in the middle part of twenty twenty. Mercedes-benz is likely to roll out an e. S. concept vehicle to create buzz on the next gen as class lineup. Other cars slated to be shown off at the event include. BMW x. five porsches all electric taken honda's electricar adis RS six avant and land rovers defender four by four the f. t. r. transportation intelligence group will host its annual conference in indianapolis with a focus on disruption even within the transport sector bank of america merrill lynch expects topics of interest to include autonomous trucking the use of AI transportation regulation on size weight eight of trucking equipment inside on-drive availability thoughts on the changing landscape of ecommerce impacts to trucking an industry insight into peak season preparation the tone coming out of indy could be of interest tonight swift transportation arc best schneider national j. b. hunt transport covenant transportation heartland express breasts. USA truck land star systems old dominion freight line martin transport werner enterprises and why RC worldwide the pro pro football season has its first full day of games on sunday with TV ratings sure to be watched closely. NFL ratings were up five percent last year a decent performance in an industry where viewership is down overall leading off this year a thursday night defensive battle between the chicago bears and green bay packers sar ratings jumper fourteen percent from the same match up a year ago an important backdrop for the current. NFL season is the pending question of where the long-term meteorites packages will land CBS NBC fox doc ESPN verizon and t. and amazon are all in the mix another big week is shaping up for the tech sector amid media reports indicating seen that a large number of state attorneys general plan investigations of google for potential anti-trust violations also facebook fell on friday after new york attorney any general latisha james announce she is joining attorneys general from seven states and the district of columbia to form a coalition that will investigate antitrust concerns. Meanwhile a larger number of non things will be presenting at the deutsche bank technology conference in las vegas from september tenth through the eleventh fi serve. AMD kaleo lift visa mongo DB VM ware box at sea booking and global payments will all be in the house in boxoffice news. The fall season begins begins this weekend with warner brothers it chapter to forecast to lead the pack by drying in around one hundred and five million across four and a half thousand theaters in the US. The film is generating generating good buzz with a b plus cinema score despite being in the horror genre. The summer box office ended down two percent compared to a year ago after slow labor day weekend the year to date box office tally is running about seven percent behind last year's pace although AMC entertainment cinemark and marcus corporation are making some of that back through strong concession sales this can barons mentions the stocks and the themes drawing attention barron's weekly addition a search for inexpensive stocks with a dash of recent price momentum momentum yields mckesson. AT and t. and DR horton mellon crowd is sized up in detail after the company settled to it's over two thousand opioid related lawsuits lawsuits investors thinking of taking a flyer are warned that malan crafts balance sheet is already leveraged with debt. That's nearly five times. Its annual cash flow. A deep dive into the art of massaging earning statements calls out some of the accounting practices of cure dr pepper and whirlpool as potentially being outside industry norms. There is also warning that pension obligations could be a problem for delta airlines and american airlines group. If falling rates trigger cash contributions we end this week sox walked with our single stock focus this week we discuss okhta shares of the stock are trading approximately ten percent lower after the company's recent recent release of its q two earnings report it closed friday at just over one hundred twenty one dollars seeking alpha author gary alexander took a look at the stock last week and things despite the fact that oakland is one of the fastest growing companies in the software sector. Its perennial head evaluation is in need of correction alexander writes there. There's no doubt that okhta is one of the strongest companies among recent software. IPO's the company has been able to maintain about fifty percent over your revenue growth for many quarters even as it hit hit a five hundred to six hundred million dollar annualized revenue run rate few software companies ever make it to that scale without experiencing a more meaningful deceleration curve in addition doped a single sign product itself is quite unique and unchallenged in the software market octa is also a great example of the land and expand model that is generated needed so much success among software startups initially oakton may land is smaller deployment within a single department or organization of its customer but gradually it builds within in that customer to encompass larger parts of the company because okhta as price per seat s. o. based pricing is about two dollars user per month it generates relatively passive revenue growth as its customers upsize their usage alexander then delivers the kicker but all this growth has already been priced into okhta stock and investors are beginning into show hesitation a pain such multiples for a company that may be headed for a slowdown similar to other former high fliers like zen desk and new relic investors are wary of voktor running into sales execution issues. A correction is long overdue for oak especially as red flags emerge on the company's growth trajectory steer clear here and lock in any gains for okhta and for any other software company that builds its customers on a subscription basis billions actually represents a clear picture of the company's long-term growth trajectory directory as a capture is deals that were signed this quarter but we'll be recognized as revenues in the future the gap between his billions growth and revenue growth essentially indicates that that okay isn't building sufficient deferred revenue balances and its growth may decelerate in the near future in fact that near future may come as soon as q. three on the bright side site however octaves billings deceleration has been accompanied by notable improvements on the profitability front greater scale has allowed okhta to push its pro forma gross margins up to seventy seven point two percent in addition okhta has been able to capture significant sales efficiency as the company grows larger ratcheting down sales and marketing expenses says as a percentage of total revenues alexander concludes with this okay does present situation can be summed up in a nutshell the company's billions growth and guidance both suggests that opd is headed for meaningful deceleration after several quarters of sticking to a nearly fifty percent year over year revenue growth rate however the stock doc still priced for perfection at a greater than twenty five times forward revenue multiple suggesting that it has plenty further to fall once its performance starts deteriorating overall seeking alpha contributors skew bullish on okhta with one very bullish one bullish one neutral and one barish and that concludes this week expects to watch thank you for listening for the best investment analysis news on the web go to seeking alpha dot com subscribe to this podcast on apple podcast google podcast outcast spotify or stitcher. You can sign up for other podcasts behind the idea essay for f.a.s.t. Let's talk e._t._f.'s the cannabis investing podcast and marketplace roundtable on those platforms as well have a great week.