17 Burst results for "Diane Swank"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"For now though, we see the likelihood of credit tightening. We know that that can have an effect on the macro economy on demand on labor market on inflation and we're going to be watching to see what that is. And we'll also be watching it, what's happening with inflation. And in the labor market. Meantime, Diane swank, chief economist over at KPMG, says Powell is really leaving things up in the air. And she says, he left all options open. I think that the fed is basically saying we just don't know how much credit tightening is in the pipeline and we're willing to do whatever is necessary. Meantime, Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab center for financial research, says the credit tightening you heard pal mention. Well, it's something we'll see all too soon. Credit availability is always a crucial indication of where the economy is going. And periods where credit is widely available standards are loose since we've had for quite some time. You get a lot of expansion in the economy. And we've turned that corner. We turn that corner last year late last year. The question is now how fast do we go from here in terms of tightening credit standards and tightening credit conditions? I think that it goes fairly quickly because of what we've experienced in the last couple of weeks. Anybody branding a small to medium sized bank that went on a large bank has got to be looking at this and saying they need to be cautious to avoid being the next one that gets a run on the bank and has to go to the fed. The newly created program where they can fudge the assets and pay down ten basis points for it. Nobody really wants to be the one that has to go there. And add Morgan Stanley global balance funds co CIL Jim Karen, though, says the credit tightening that Jones mentioned, well, it's not the end of the world, but risk is heightened. I think what we have to really distinguish is, is this a systemic event, or is it a heavy blow to confidence? I think it's a heavy blow to confidence. Is it a credit crunch like in 2008? Or is it a credit tightening? I think it's a credit tightening. So ultimately, whatever you thought the recession risks were two weeks ago, it has to be higher today. Whatever you thought, inflation might have been going forward. It's probably also lower because you're going to have slower growth going forward. So it's really it's really a tradeoff in terms of all of the tightening that we may see, it's very, very likely to see in the banking sector and from the banking sector. When does that start to show up in the economy? Is it in the third quarter? Is it in the fourth quarter? Is it right away? It usually these things work with a bit of a lag. And I think that that lagged effect is really what's creating the uncertainty. So look, I mean, most people don't expect that we're going to grow more than 1% this year anyways. So if we're going to shave off a half a percent or more, that actually that's actually a meaningful amount, meaning shave off a half a percent, given the Titan of credit standards, that creates more of a negative outlook for 2023. And it's something that we need to be concerned about. Okay. So that's the view of Morgan Stanley global balance funds co CIO Jim carren on the credit tightening. And former New York fed president Bill Dudley, and also a senior adviser to Bloomberg economics and Bloomberg opinion columnist, says risk of a hard landing for the Federal Reserve has gone up. Basically, the fed is saying that one uncertainty has gone up a lot with how long the banking system stress is going to last and how severe it's going to be. Number two, that that stress is going to restrain the economy. And that substitutes a little bit for rate hikes. So we're not going to have to do as much as we thought we were going to have to do earlier. Uncertainty has gone up. Certainly is going to have a lot. And I think it's sort of interesting that markets are not really fully focused on that because the risk of a hard landing is higher now because the fed isn't going to really know what's the appropriate policy to do until they get a lot more information. And it's going to take time for that information to be received. And it's not going to be very easy to assess how are these banking laws going to affect credit conditions and how much is that going to affect economic growth? So I think that we're actually in a worse place today than we were a few weeks ago because there's two forces. One force is keeping inflation high. Another force is slowing the economy down. And we don't know which one is going to dominate or for how long. So I think the risk of a hard line is definitely gone up. Bill, the easy way to dismiss any conversation around the fed is just to say that data dependent. I hear that's so much. They're going to be data dependent, but Bill at this point I'm wondering, what data are they dependent on for the next decision? Well, I think the problem is that the data on the effects of tightening on the economy take a while to actually be realized. We have two open questions about the banking system. Number one, how broad is it going to be? How many banks are going to be affected? Number two, how much are banks that are affected actually going to tighten their credit standards. The problem is not a credit problem. The problem was they actually taking on too much interest rate risk. So it's not obvious to me that I need credit standards is really the logical response. And number three, how long is this going to go on? So I think that there's a lot of uncertainty here about how much of a breaking effect the banking system was going to be on the economy. The fact that the fan basically has one more rate hike and then it keeps Reed sites throughout the year suggest that at this point, they don't think that this is going to exert a lot of downward momentum on the economy. What's interesting is the market reaction to the press conference in the statement in the summary of economic projections was to be ever so slightly surprised by the rate hike because it wasn't fully priced in. But actually it's priced again more rate reduction in the rest of 2020 free and into 24 than they were earlier. And I think that was a little bit surprising, frankly, given the fact that Paul was very clear. We don't expect to cut rates in 2023. Does that open up in question about the credibility of the fed? I think it opens up a question that people are just very uncertain about what's the banking system most mean for economic activity and then how does that actually translate to the fed? I think people are worried about the downside risk from the banking sector. Steve Chevrolet and Federated. I keep going back to this because I think it's a really silly point. This meeting marks the passing of the torch from inflation and duration risks he wrote to recession and credit risks. Arguably what we have seen is not a credit crunch. However, often liquidity crunches can lead to credit crunches, as we've seen in the past Bill, do you agree that this really is a tipping point as represented to some of the changes in the statement? I think it really depends on how broad and how long. I mean, we've had other examples where there have been all sorts of market turbulence and no recession resulted at mostly obviously. That was the 1987 stock market crash where people were talking about and they can allergies back to The Great Depression. And the economy didn't go into recession at all. So
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stock market, the Dow, the S&P and NASDAQ all advanced it was a mixed Friday. The Dow today hire by one tenth of 1%, S&P and NASDAQ both declined, a hot jobs report has fueling bets, the Federal Reserve will keep tightening even if officials downshift the pace of hikes this month. Diane swank is chief economist at KPMG. You know, the market has really not listened to the fed. This is really important is whenever they hear anything that sounds a bit dovish in the question and answer when Jay Powell talked, the market was railing and easing financial conditions because he said, you know, we're more measured. We don't want to over tighten. Well, over Titan doesn't mean they don't want an increase in the unemployment rate. Diane swank of KPMG and with details of the jobs report, here's Bloomberg's vineyard giudice. U.S. interest rates could move much higher after the latest employment tally showed a gain of more than a quarter million jobs in November as well as searching labor costs. Last month's increase of 263,000 jobs topped Wall Street forecasts underscoring the enduring strength of the labor market despite rising interest rates to fight inflation, the unemployment rate held steady at a very low 3.7%. Benito Jude, Bloomberg radio, as for where the jobs report leaves the Federal Reserve Anastasia moroso is chief investment officer at I capital. There's two particularly concerning things within the payrolls report, which is the fact that the labor force participation rate declined and also wages is still growing at 5.1%. And again, that's a step up from a prior month. High capitals and a station amoroso, stocks mixed, the Dow up 34 points up one tenth of 1%, S&P down four down one tenth NASDAQ down today by two tenths of 1%. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I'm Charlie palak this is Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"But that will soon apply only to those with high incomes, Diane swank, chief economist of the firm KPMG said in a Bloomberg interview. Part of the reason spending has held up so much this year is that we've created over 4.3 million new jobs. That is a stunning number of new paychecks holding up aggregating comes, even as individuals feel that they've lost ground justifiably so on their wages relative to inflation. Sloan said low income people are beginning to use credit to buy groceries and job growth is going to slow to a halt before very long. In Washington nerve Chapman loomer gradient. At the World Cup, Serbia lead Switzerland, no score between Brazil and Cameroon earlier in the day South Korea defeated Portugal Uruguay beat Ghana. Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake. I'm Nancy Lyons. Not completing high school is more of a social thing than it was an academic thing. I came out in the 11th grade. Nobody was embracing you. Kids were cruel. It was very difficult to be gay. Even though all these years have passed, I still had that longing to have my diploma. The hard part was determining that I was gonna do it. But I definitely didn't do it alone. At age 30, with the help of her mentor, Carissa finished her high school diploma. I have a mentor, Maria. She convinced me to continue my education and finish what I started to get my diploma. Just never judges. She's a true role model. If you're even considering getting
WTOP
"diane swank" Discussed on WTOP
"73 in Sterling and 75 in Washington at 9 41. The release of August's consumer price index with higher than expected inflation has investors bracing for another big rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week. The latest rate 8.3% that's 6 straight months above 8%. Economist Diane swank, an adviser to the Federal Reserve, warriors workers keep losing ground. All the gains in employment we've seen. All the acceleration in wages we've seen. We've lost all of that and then some to inflation. Blame a tangle of lingering buffets, including the pandemic recovery, consumer demand, Ukraine, and the supply chain. On Tuesday, the fed meets again, analysts expect another rate hike the 5th one this year. CBS News correspondent Mark strassmann reporting. Data from the Census Bureau shows income inequality in the United States, went up last year for the first time in more than a decade, it's due in large part to a drop in household income among the poorest residents, but there's a silver lining childhood poverty was cut almost in half. That's because of the federal child tax credit and stimulus payments in response to the pandemic. A modern day phenomenon in the workforce might require an old fashioned remedy. They're called quiet quitters the modern day version of clock watchers or worse. Not wanting to go above and beyond and in many cases working less than required, but is there an off ramp before getting fed up? Okay, notes, the president of working nation says HR before heading out the door. If you're manager isn't giving you access to the professional development or the opportunities that you really feel that you need to have or you'd like to have, I would go to HR. She says her organization focuses on urging companies to hire more people who don't have a tour for your college degree. She says they often do the work really well, but bear the weight of not having a college education. Coming up, the commanders come out cold
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. In particular, without price stability, we will not achieve a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. The burdens of high inflation fall heaviest on those who are least able to bear them. Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance. Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth. Moreover, there will very likely be some softening of labor market conditions. While higher interest rates slower growth and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses. These are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation. But a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain. The U.S. economy is clearly slowing from the historically high growth rates of 2021, which reflected the reopening of the economy following the pandemic recession. While the latest economic data had been mixed, in my view, our economy continues to show a strong underlying momentum. Reaction to Powell's speech injects and whole flowed in quickly, Diane swank of grand Thornton. The biggest issue here is he's focused on inflation and he's more going to be more vocal esque in terms of inflation. Former Philly fed president Charles plus her. It's not a harsh fan. I mean, they put themselves in a position where they had to do this. This is a problem of their own nation. Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock financial management. Really important point that they were trying to emphasize that they are trying to say that there is no, I mean, he said it explicitly and there's no conflict here between the labor market and inflation. Stop my nerve of Guggenheim global. Going back to
WNYC 93.9 FM
"diane swank" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Economy shrank for the second quarter in a row the government reported just now that there was no growth in the spring to summer quarter with gross domestic product instead falling 9 tenths of a percent, joining us live now is Diane swank, chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG, Diane, welcome. Good to be here. Isn't it odd to see contraction like this at a time that hiring was so strong in each of the months in question? It is. And I think one of the things we have to keep in mind is that job openings were so strong and staffing shortages so acute that, in fact, firms continue to higher up, even as underlying economy started to show cracks in the foundation of economic growth. I see business investment was flat. What about housing during that quarter? Jose is the canary in the coal mine and it cratered. Consumer spending still moved forward and employment moving forward makes us not a recession. The only other time we saw this was 1947. So we're still out of an official recession, but the canary in the comment is housing. And it really did crater. And I think that's important to remember because that's the most interest sensitive sector interest rate sensitive sector out there So two quarters in a row of contractions, some will call that a recession. You will, but with an asterisk, is that what I'm hearing? No, I won't call it a recession yet. I do think that we will end up in a recession, but until we really see an increase in the unemployment rate to go with that, it's not a recession. Diane swank, chief economist at the audit tax and advisory firm KPMG. Thank you so much. Thank you. Numbers, S&P futures are now down two tenths of a percent. The ten year interest rate is down quite a bit now, 2.73%. Marketplace
WTOP
"diane swank" Discussed on WTOP
"Putin What the breweries around the world have been brewing this a variation of this recipe The crab the brewing in Ukraine has been doing for years But we're doing it now with the fundraiser Breading says the breweries hope to raise $20,000 the beer is sold in four packs Kyle Cooper News Well investors are now looking ahead to a new week after a dismal close on Friday Inflation worries and concerns that corporate profits could be squeezed took hold on Wall Street the NASDAQ finished April down over 13% Its biggest monthly loss since 2008 Amazon slumped after posting its first loss since 2015 Grand Thornton chief economist Diane swank expects the fed will move head on into several rate hikes starting next month This could be the most rapid rise in interest expense and tightening of credit conditions that we've seen since the 1980s As we move into this period and the fears and reality that we could actually end up in a recession are starting to set in Jennifer Kuiper CBS News Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones market watch joined us earlier to explain whether or not we should be worried about a possible recession This century alone the last 20 years we've had a 50% drop and then a 57% drop during the O 8 recession and even two years ago during the pandemic stocks dropped by a third before bouncing back So this is hardly anything unusual We could certainly be headed that way That was Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones MarketWatch Well inflation though you might notice making everything cost more Might be the time to pay attention to your spending There are some things that people spend money on unconsciously like bank.
WTOP
"diane swank" Discussed on WTOP
"This song many singing Ukraine that isn't very flattering to Vladimir Putin What the breweries around the world have been brewing this a variation of this recipe across the brewing and Ukraine has been doing for years But we're doing it now with the fundraiser Breading says the breweries hope to raise $20,000 the Vera sold in four packs Kyle Cooper WTO P news Well investors are looking ahead to a new week after a dismal close on Friday Inflation worries and concerns that corporate profits could be squeezed took hold on Wall Street the NASDAQ finished April down over 13% Its biggest monthly loss since 2008 Amazon slumped after posting its first loss since 2015 Grand Thornton chief economist Diane swank expects the fed will move head on into several rate hikes starting next month This could be the most rapid rise in interest expense and tightening of credit conditions that we've seen since the 1980s As we move into this period and the fears and reality that we could actually end up in a recession are starting to shut in Jennifer Kuiper CBS News the U.S. economy pulled back slightly last quarter and stock prices are fluctuating Spurring worries of a recession Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones MarketWatch joined us earlier to explain whether we should be worried This century alone the last 20 years we've had a 50% drop and then a 57% drop during the O 8 recession and even two years ago during the pandemic stocks dropped by a third before bouncing back So this is hardly anything unusual We could certainly be headed that way That was Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones MarketWatch Well inflation is making everything costs more So might be time to pay attention to your spending There are some things that people spend money on unconsciously like bank fees.
WTOP
"diane swank" Discussed on WTOP
"Ukraine has been doing for years But we're doing it now with the fundraiser Breading says the breweries hope to raise $20,000 the beer is sold in four packs Kyle Cooper WTO news We'll invest investors that is are looking ahead to a new week after a dismal close Friday Inflation worries and concerns that corporate profits could be squeezed took hold on Wall Street the NASDAQ finished April down over 13% Its biggest monthly loss since 2008 Amazon slumped after posting its first loss since 2015 Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swank expects the fed will move head on into several rate hikes starting next month This could be the most rapid rise in interest expense and tightening of credit conditions that we've seen since the 1980s As we move into this period and the fears and reality that we could actually end up in a recession are starting to set in Jennifer Kuiper CBS News Pulled back slightly last quarter and stock prices are fluctuating Spurring worries of a recession Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones MarketWatch joined us earlier to explain whether we should be worried This century alone the last 20 years we've had a 50% drop and then a 57% drop during the O 8 recession and even two years ago during the pandemic stocks dropped by a third before bouncing back This has hardly anything unusual We could certainly be headed that way That was Paul brandis finance writer for Dow Jones market watch Coming up on WTO after traffic and weather is the new series shining girl worth your time More on that and more It's 1236 Success is.
WTOP
"diane swank" Discussed on WTOP
"Evening I'm Hillary Howard And I'm Brendan Hazleton Mike Jacques is our producer Among the top stories we're following for you this evening it was a brutal end to a lousy week on Wall Street The day way down which culminated a very bad week in a terrible month Chief economist Diane swank on what's happening Margins are being squeezed by everything from supply chain problems to escalating costs And today we also saw the employment cost index come out at its fastest quarterly pace in over 30 years She expects the fed will move head on into several rate hikes starting next month This could be the most rapid rise in interest expense and tightening of credit conditions that we've seen since the 1980s as we move into this period And the spheres and reality that we could actually end up in a recession are starting to shut in At the close the Dow plummeted over 900 points the S&P 500 down 3.6% the NASDAQ wrapped up April with its biggest monthly loss since 2008 CBS News special report I'm Stacy Lynn Meantime House speaker Nancy Pelosi in other news says it's critical for Congress to move quickly to pass the president's massive aid package for Ukraine More on that from Capitol Hill in WTO's Mitchell Miller This is historic Speaker Pelosi referring to the $33 billion in aid for Ukraine which includes $20 billion for military assistance She says lawmakers are already working on the legislation But there could be complications in the Senate where Republicans want a vote related to title 42 and the president's plan to drop the policy which allows for the rapid rejection of migrants at the southern border There's also not total agreement on new COVID funding which Pelosi is pushing for We need the Ukraine money We need the COVID money So this is called legislating and we'll have to come to terms on how we do that On Capitol Hill Mitchell Miller WTO P news Also today Russian missiles rocked Ukraine's capital city of Kyiv that was actually last night in a text could be happening inside of Russia More on that from WTO P national security correspondent JJ green Border attacks are taking place in multiple locations along the border with Ukraine Russia's border with the Ukraine and what we're hearing is that these attacks are coming from inside Ukraine Ukraine is not going to say they did it That's not what they do But they have said though that this is something you should expect in a war like this Russia recognizes now there have been 11 attacks since February 24th when this war started And the tempo of these attacks seemed to be picking up Again that's WTO national security correspondent JJ green 6 35.
WCPT 820
"diane swank" Discussed on WCPT 820
"And more destruction Russian president Vladimir Putin's forces have ramped up their use of air power a vast Russian convoy headed toward Kyiv still appears to have been stalled in the wake of the nuclear plant attack Ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky appealed again to the west to enforce a no fly zone over his country but Stoltenberg ruled out that possibility citing the risk of a much wider war in Europe Employers added a robust 678,000 jobs last month as the omicron variant waynes Here's the AP's Ben Thomas These are stunning job gains Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swank also notes unemployment dropped to 3.8% while the Labor Department report showed the workweek rebounded in February after the omicron wave of COVID-19 forced many to mistime in January Average hourly earnings are up quite substantially during the month when you include the hours worked along with average wages But swamp notes the strong data is giving the Federal Reserve some concern It's a little too hot to the touch We'd like to see more moderate employment gains and wage gains that allow the economy to continue to expand and not cut into our living standards with higher inflation And Thomas Washington The Supreme Court reinstated the death sentence for convicted Boston Marathon bomber Johar Tsarnaev the justices by a 6 to three vote agreed with the Biden administration's arguments that a federal appeals court was wrong to throw out the sentence of death by a jury imposed on Tsarnaev Big losses at the start on Wall Street This is AP news A Disney inspired musical by a Harvard University student is a hit online There are a lot of Disney princesses but not a Korean one All of the waves in the world can't rock me 22 year old Julia roux wrote shim Chung a folk tale.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Retired You can tell We got two more hours of this No it's just it's been a lot and I think the conversation we've had a lot of really smart conversations on all of the Bloomberg platforms And I think there is that concern that we are behind We will get that CPI print which will be I think the last one before we get another fed meeting Shelter costs are something Diane swank talked about that saying that's a big component of CPI in terms of our living costs And how the fed looks at that Do you think we'll see an increased marketing or increase before the March meeting I'd be surprised I'd really be surprised unless all of a sudden there was a lot of negativity in the markets thinking so romantic talking off air earlier today made the point that some expectations include 30 basis points by the next meeting So if you take 30 beforehand Yeah so if the average is 30 then that takes into account A bigger one than a quarter percentage .25 basis points This is long-term capital management We need to think about the other times that the fed has done emergency emergency rate increases or decreases What I would say is the fed and let's listen to fed speakers and what their tone is because the fed in their language and controlling the narrative can do a lot to move things in the market Different narratives so that they don't actually have to do jobs report Yeah exactly We went from a very hawkish tone to all of a sudden well maybe it won't be 50 basis points So let's see what we get from here at least that's what I would say All right let's get back to world of national news Nancy lions in D.C. finance Thanks Carol NATO's secretary general Jens Stoltenberg is rejecting a demand from Russia.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That we'll see an easing in price increases in price pressures over the course of 2022 And obviously the fed is operating independently and the president has underscored the importance of the fed operating independently to make to take actions consistent with making sure that these price increases don't become entrenched And of course that's Brian D's director of the national economic council I feel like entrenched you know inflation becoming entrenched We're going to have to define what that exactly means It's like the new transitory to some extent remaining It's a new transitory and I keep hearing people talk about the idea that maybe we've beat and maybe that's the case but I think the question now is how fast do you come down on some of these prices if at all The general consensus seems to be that even once we come down we're still going to be at a baseline that's well above the baseline that we were pre-pandemic Record levels out there Carol for men's apparel cookware linen tools hardware supplies No one used cars living rooms kitchens dining room so you back out food and energy and still everything else is higher as well Is anyone keeping track of mosques Can I go on about stories great Extraordinary I mean whether it be kids ridiculous price increases Ridiculous Yes Right here right now in terms of prices we had 9 to 5 I call it a technical term What's the point that consumers say enough I'm not gonna I mean there's some things you don't have a choice You have to buy right But at what point do they start to back off and just say enough is enough And does that have an impact on those inflationary numbers Yeah and it brings a point when the CPI numbers actually strip out energy and food but it bears kind of keeping it to mind The food prices are surging They're searching to the most since 2011 They're getting expensive and the fact that people are cooking at home more and more doesn't actually help that Well the good thing though Taylor is that when you look at those rent prices they actually weren't as high as some people thought right Don't even get me started I made a comment on air and I've had two readers scathingly read in because I was sizing someone from apartment list who said that the numbers are actually 18% And if that's the number instead of the BLS data inflation is 10% So we'll get into the nitty Gritty of how the BLS calculates rent but I believe it was Diane swank who told us earlier that we're just starting to see the rent inflation in calculated into this So it may not be peaking at least if we're thinking about that part of all of this And I bring it back Caroline real wages negative two and a half percent That's everything you need to know about the impact on the consumer Don't be scathing to our Taylor rigs when she makes his interesting points But it's true the inflation part of this story when it comes to wages when we're going to keep a really close eye on And well look at that Warren talent if RBC had is talking about it if we've got Microsoft luring people over from Apple people are in high demand and I'm pretty sure they're paying for it Yeah Silicon Valley Wall Street really united and keeping their talent and it actually feeds into once again those rent prices because if you are making more in theory than they can charge you more for those shelter costs I just want to wait until all of the stimulus is gone Totally a clean economy and then we get to see some real numbers here Maybe we're going to have to be able to patient for that All right folks we're going to be back with you at 4 p.m..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"diane swank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The same thing Holding back on that the planned rise in fuel duty canceled That's where people fear it's on when they fill out the tank and when they fill up the pint glass And they're not hiking A tank of gas is $7 plus a gallon in the United States My mom told me yesterday tell him it was one pound 50 a liter where she went to So you three $7 a gallon now Three $7 again and I believe fuel duty is something close to 60 pence a liter Well we've never had a plan to excrete It was pulled back Lisa we just got there on the corporate text Didn't we Yeah basically we might get a taxi It's gonna go up Now we're not so people buy stocks Let's do this Let's look at this economic data before we get to the lovely Diane swank John I'm looking at it pretty simply as a bit of revision and a little bit of tepid Ness but there we are I mean it's just more data that will filter into our GDP estimates through durable goods and through the inventory dynamics It's better than expected Tom They're expected to be a whole lot lighter just a little bit softer capital goods pretty decent upside surprise there Data is doing okay Yeah the one data line I'd look at let's go right to that with Diane swank of grant Thornton We are looking at advanced goods trade balances that we've never imagined We are out to a 96 negative $96 billion statistic which I would respectively suggest I am swank or myself have never framed Let's begin there She is with grant Thornton Diane we have not talked about net exports exports imports but we have a goods trade balance unimaginable What does that signal Well it's really strong demand in the United States relative to the rest of the world That's just where we're at And I think one of the interesting things is of course that will subtract from growth in the third quarter even as durable goods add to growth in their investment that we're seeing out there is really the strongest in technology intellectual property that we've seen since the 1940s So we'll get some productivity growth but it really is going to be the weakest growth of the quarter which we'll get out tomorrow will be the third quarter The weakest growth since the onset of the pandemic recovery but of course we're now starting to gain more traction again as the delta wave fades and we're seeing that already in some of the credit card data coming in for the month of October And as we go into November of course the biggest constraint we're going to face out there is shortages and price hikes Rebecca Patterson was on earlier and she would demand that we asked The Economist Diane swank Are we in a demand shock or a supply sack Rebecca Patterson of Bridgewater says this is a demand shock It's all of the above I mean there's no question there's a demand shock out there and we've juiced that demand chalk with the last round of stimulus checks We've got a lot of excess savings that's being drained down much depends on how much we get the private sector to pick up the baton from the federal government as we get into the fourth quarter and into 2022 and see job gains pick up again after the delta wave I think that's going to happen And that is hard for the fed because even as you're on your comparisons get to be more difficult which means the inflation numbers should taper off a bit in 2022 I think they're going to be residually higher than the fed is going to be comfortable with And they're not going to be in the tough position of determining whether or not the inflation that we're enduring in 2022 is in fact going to be more in get into the economy more And I think that's something that they're going to have to act on and my concern is that we do see companies out there doubling up on inventories doubling up on orders to hedge against what are the supply chain shocks but that won't abate inflation until we get well into 2023 and that's just too long for the fed to wait Diane let's get into the politics of the economics because that's where it's going in Washington D.C. the idea of the demand side shock versus the supply side shock is frankly squarely in the Republican talking points where they're saying it is because we pass these bills earlier in the year and last year that basically gave people checks that we're seeing the demand shock that we are seeing How much is that really the issue versus just the difficulties and turning off an entire economy turning it back on and expecting it to happen without friction Well I think it really is This is version upon reentry as I called as a spaceship comes back in and you hope it doesn't bring burn up and the heat shields hold It really is a lot of frictions frictions in the labor market We've seen that I think we're going to see more workers come back into the labor force in the fourth quarter but the bottom line is you can't expect to turn off a global economy and then just ramp it back up overnight And in fact many producers expected when we turn the lights off back in March of 2020 in the U.S. at least some countries before that that it would take quite a while for us to ramp back up and because we supported spending as we needed to as we paid people to go home from work that ended up created in very unusual dynamic out there And it's just not to be surprised that we're going through this that said it's really hard to disentangle the politics from the economics economics are really all of the above We are having a demand shock because consumers couldn't spend uncertain things And then when they can they're all trying to run through the door at the same time You see surge pricing on hotels and airfares a minute consumers come back We've had a lot of disruptions out there in addition to climate change and extreme weather events Everyone forgets hurricane Ida exacerbated the rise in prices at the pump in October And adding to all of this confusion day and you're talking about friction upon reentry when do we know that we've entered right When do we know what signals economic signals do you look at to know that we have reached some sort of new normal rather than just the waiting period for everything to equalize Well that's the $1 million or a billion $1 trillion question We have to keep going up on our numbers I think quadrillion is the next one after this one I actually had to look it up But there's no question that what we're looking for is some kind of a sort of stabilizing in underlying inflation pressures Not as broad based inflation increases I think one of the things we're going to have to be dealing with in 2022 is the lives on shelter And that could add a half percent to underlying inflation measures alone So even as some of the energy price and the surge pricing that we're seeing right now is we get that friction going in the real heat that singes that will cool down but not enough to sort.
AP News
"diane swank" Discussed on AP News
"Lowest of any month this year as many companies continued struggling to fill millions of open positions Employers added just 194,000 jobs the second stray tepid game and the fewest since they cut jobs in December The job survey was taken in early September when Delta vary in cases were rising The virus still dominates every single month of economic activity Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swank was among those forecasting a much bigger gain Still President Biden is touting real progress noting a sharp unemployment rate drop to 4.8% Maybe it doesn't seem fast enough I'd like to see it faster and we're going to make it faster The jobless rate fell in part because while more people found jobs fewer looked for work despite a record high job openings Sagar Meghani Washington Economists had predicted robust job growth last month but the delta variant got in the way The forecast in part was hiring would pick up as schools reopened freeing parents to return to jobs many companies planned to resume in office work potentially revitalizing downtown business districts But some schools aren't temporarily closed Many office buildings are still vacant and COVID-19 fears have rebounded A Census Bureau of survey found the number of people not working because they have the disease or are caring for someone who does doubled between July and early September Sagar Meghani Washington Nigerian police say that at least 187 people including babies have been freed in the country's troubled north one and Nigeria's largest liberations of kidnap victims A state police spokesman from the zamfara region says security forces rescued the hostages from a forest where they had been held for many weeks he said they were released unconditionally indicating that no ransoms were paid following extensive search and rescue operations the spokesman added the rescuers had been helped by sweeping security measures including a shutdown on mobile phone networks and restrictions on gatherings and movements in the region I'm Charles De Ledesma Media groups have welcomed the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize for journalists who've battled to confront misinformation globally Human rights activists and many others have enthusiastically welcomed the awarding of this year's prize to journalists Maria risa of the Philippines and Dmitry Murray of Russia at a time when media groups around the world face new pressures and crackdowns from the authorities another new threat is the rise of misinformation even in established democracies The committee to protect journalists says ressa and muratov are under personal threat and continuously defy censorship and repression to report the news leading the way for others to do the same Charles De Ledesma London Schools are a key factor in last month's disappointing jobs report Many of the jobs that actually were lost during the month were in public education Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swanks is typically a lot of jobs are added there before school starts around a million We fell short of debt as many schools were forced to go back online Swan says that's reflected in a drop in labor participation Women in particular The numbers suggest many working mothers are still caring for kids at home Many schools that stayed open had trouble finding support staff like bus drivers most industries outside education saw better job growth Sagar Meghani Washington Anti vaccine Cairo tractors are a rising force of misinformation a sold out convention in the Wisconsin dells discussed bogus claims about the health dangers of mask wearing and vaccines It was organized by chiropractors an AP investigation found chiropractors touted their supplements as alternatives to vaccines donated to anti vaccine organizations and doctors notes were written to allow patients to get out of mask and immunization mandates This is a small but vocal minority many chiropractors advocate vaccines a chiropractor in Michigan Kyle mckamey tells patients on a pediatric intake form if you would like information regarding the dangers of vaccines and how to refuse them Let us know the line includes a smiley face emoji I'm Ed Donahue A Taliban police official says a blast at a mosque packed with Shiite Muslim worshippers in northern Afghanistan has killed or injured over 100 people The deputy police chief of Kunduz province believes the majority of them have been killed in reference to the victims adding the attack may have been carried out by a suicide bomber who mingled among the worshippers inside the mosque There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast but militants from the Islamic State group have a long history of attacking Afghanistan's Shiite minority if confirmed a death toll of dozens would be the highest since U.S. and NATO forces left Afghanistan at the end of August and the Taliban took control of the country I'm Charles De Ledesma Two fearless journalists have won the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize Maria ressa of the Philippines and Dmitry were roughed off of Russia become Nobel laureates for their fight for freedom of expression in countries where reporters have faced persistent attacks harassment and even murder whereas says she's called out the erosion of the rights guaranteed in her nation's constitution even when it's got personal We have shown that this asymmetrical power when the state's power is focused on journalists that the way you fight back is by doing your job Research two has criticized Facebook saying the company knew it was harming people with disinformation I'm Charles De Ledesma The Labor Department's latest report shows the virus pandemic still has a grip on the economy Employers added just 194,000 jobs last month far shy of even the modest 336,000 in August and the fewest since they actually cut jobs in December The bottom line is change the course of the virus change the course of cases and you change the course of the economy Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swan says the disappointing report is a reality check That simply reopening businesses won't magically translate to more hiring employers continue struggling to fill millions of open spots partly because of virus fears and partly because many who've lost jobs during the pandemic are not yet looking for work The unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.8% Sagar Meghani Washington.
AP News
"diane swank" Discussed on AP News
"This year as many companies continued struggling to fill millions of open positions Employers added just 194,000 jobs the second stray tepid game and the fewest since they cut jobs in December The job survey was taken in early September when Delta vary in cases were rising The virus still dominates every single month of economic activity Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swank was among those forecasting a much bigger gain Still President Biden is touting real progress noting a sharp unemployment rate dropped to 4.8% Maybe it doesn't seem fast enough I'd like to see it faster And we're going to make it faster The jobless rate fell in part because while more people found jobs fewer looked for work despite a record high job openings Sagar Meghani Washington Economists had predicted robust job growth last month but the delta variant got in the way The forecast in part was hiring would pick up as schools reopened freeing parents to return to jobs Many companies plan to resume in office work potentially revitalizing downtown business districts but some schools are temporarily closed Many office buildings are still vacant and COVID-19 fears have rebounded a Census Bureau of survey found the number of people not working because they have the disease or are caring for someone who does doubled between July and early September Sagar Meghani Washington Nigerian police say that at least 187 people including babies have been freed in the country's troubled north one on Nigeria's largest liberations of kidnap victims A state police spokesman from the zamfara region says security forces rescued the hostages from a forest where they had been held for many weeks he said they were released unconditionally indicating that no ransoms were paid following extensive search and rescue operations the spokesman added the rescuers had been helped by sweeping security measures including a shutdown on mobile phone networks and restrictions on gatherings and movements in the region I'm Charles De Ledesma Media groups have welcomed the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize for journalists who have battled to confront misinformation globally Human rights activists and many others have enthusiastically welcomed the awarding of this year's prize to journalists Maria risa of the Philippines and Dmitri murat off of Russia at a time when media groups around the world face new precious and crackdowns from the authorities another new threat is the rise of misinformation even in established democracies The committee to protect journalists says resa and muratov are under personal threat and continuously defy censorship and repression to report the news leading the way for others to do the same Charles De Ledesma London Schools are a key factor in last month's disappointing jobs report Many of the jobs that actually were lost during the month were in public education Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swanks this typically a lot of jobs are added there before school starts around a million We fell short of that as many schools were forced to go back online Swan says that's reflected in a drop in labor participation Women in particular The numbers suggest many working mothers are still caring for kids at home Many schools that stayed open had trouble finding support staff like bus drivers most industries outside education saw better job growth Sagar Meghani Washington Anti vaccine Cairo tractors are a rising force of misinformation a sold out convention in the Wisconsin dells discussed bogus claims about the health dangers of mask wearing and vaccines It was organized by chiropractors an AP investigation found chiropractors touted their supplements as alternatives to vaccines donated to anti vaccine organizations and doctors notes were written to allow patients to get out of mask and immunization mandates This is a small but vocal minority Many chiropractors advocate vaccines a chiropractor in Michigan Kyle mckamey tells patients on a pediatric intake form if you would like information regarding the dangers of vaccines and how to refuse them Let us know The line includes a smiley face emoji I'm Ed Donahue A Taliban police official says a blast at a mosque packed with Shiite Muslim worshippers in northern Afghanistan has killed or injured over 100 people The deputy police chief for Kunduz province believes the majority of them have been killed in reference to the victims adding the attack may have been carried out by a suicide bomber who mingled among the worshippers inside the mosque There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the blast but militants from the Islamic State group have a long history of attacking Afghanistan's Shiite minority if confirmed a death toll of dozens would be the highest since U.S. and NATO forces left Afghanistan at the end of August and the Taliban to control of the country I'm Charles De Ledesma To fearless journalists have won the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize Maria ressa of the Philippines and Dmitri muraru of Russia become Nobel laureates for their fight for freedom of expression in countries where reporters have faced persistent attacks harassment and even murder where says she's called out the erosion of the rights guaranteed in her nation's constitution even when it's got personal We have shown that this asymmetrical power when the state's power is focused on journalists that the way you fight back is by doing your job So two has criticized Facebook saying the company knew it was harming people with disinformation I'm Charles De Ledesma The labor departments lay this report shows the virus pandemic still has a grip on the economy Employers added just 194,000 jobs last month far shy of even the modest 336,000 in August and the fewest since they actually cut jobs in December The bottom line is change the course of the virus change the course of cases and you change the course of the economy Grant Thornton chief economist Diane swan says the disappointing report is a reality check that simply reopening businesses won't magically translate to more hiring Employers continue struggling to fill millions of open spots partly because of virus fears and partly because many who've lost jobs during the pandemic are not yet looking for work The unemployment rate fell sharply to 4.8% Sagar Meghani Washington AP.
WCBM 680 AM
"diane swank" Discussed on WCBM 680 AM
"19 vaccination site Friday, drawing lines of people from surrounding neighborhoods in the Bronx. They make aside being restricted to Bronx residents as a way to boost vaccination rates in the New York City borough. The highest percentage of positive Corona virus test results. Yankee manager Aaron Boone today is a special on opening day as Yankee Stadium's ever seen, and it's an honor to be a small part of it. NFL, telling the feds. It will make the remaining of the league's 30 stadium's available for vaccination sites. Already seven NFL stadiums are serving a sight. The German government has welcome President Biden's decision to halt the plan. Withdrawal of US troops from Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel is office says the troops stationing there, quote. Are in our mutual interest. Breaking news and analysis of town hold dot com. U. S employers added just 49,000 jobs in January. Labor Department says the unemployment rate for January fell sharply to 6.3%. About half of that drop occurred because some of those out of work found jobs. Others stopped looking for work, and we're no longer counted as unemployed. In the meantime, Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swank says Congress needs to pass that stimulus package that's big enough to make a difference is really a time we have to go big. And the consensus on that among economists is the same regardless of their political stripes, because so much now is at stake on Wall Street, Froggy Down Industrials Gaining 92 points closing the day and the week at 31,000 won 48 the NASDAQ climbs 78 8 13,056. More of these stories. Town Hold calm Wcbm Baltimore Winter Storm Watch kicks in Saturday night through Sunday afternoon for us could see some five inch plus totals this weekend coastal low developing and moving in from the South quickly this weekend with a two inch snowfall Saturday night an additional 2.5 inch snows on Sunday. Good news is it's the weekend but parade of cold numbers next week force for the long range forecast. 30 degrees tonight Partly cloudy Saturday 48 with snow Saturday night. I'm Scott Larrimore, the weather Channel on talk radio 6 80 wcbm..