35 Burst results for "Deutsche Bank"
The Breakdown
"deutsche bank" Discussed on The Breakdown
"To fin twit and Deutsche. Like I said, it's not super clear to me the extent to which there are specific reasons to be concerned about them as opposed to others, other than the fact that it would be really bad if it failed. And there's almost a temptation to see it as the next domino if only for historical parallelism. Finance a lot, for example, wrote so far we've had two investment bank failures in 2023. SVB is total assets for 200 billion, Credit Suisse was 700 billion. Deutsche bank is 1.4 trillion, so that would be a Merrill Lynch scenario leading to the collapse of numerous other large institutions. Now, one of the other phrases you'll see a lot on Finn to it right now is two big to save. Daniel the call, the chief economist that tresses says, Deutsche Bank is not too big to fail. It is too big to bail out. Tetragrammaton says most G sibs have assets worth many times more than the GDP of the country they reside in. They're definitely too big to save, but the G 20 pass legislation back in 2010 to ensure government backstop, including bail ins, would rescue GCPs at any cost. Marcus Agrippa Rite of Deutsche Bank defaults the Eurozone and European Central Bank under Christine Lagarde is going to have a hell of a headache. Deutsche Bank debt is so large that there won't be another bank coming to the rescue as there was with Credit Suisse. Now, as we try to parse out what's actually going on here, I think there is one thing that we have to keep in mind. The last decade, and especially the last few years, were characterized by speculative fever to the upside. In other words, people betting that things were going up anything was going up and probably going up way more than they probably should in a rational market environment. We're now starting to see speculative fever to the downside where shorts pile on and in many cases actively use the tools of social media to turn their case into self fulfilling prophecy. First guac of market news aggregator tweets, short interest and Deutsche Bank stock has doubled in the last two weeks to 360 million. Short sellers have made over 100 million betting against Deutsche Bank stock in the last two years. Now, ultimately, short selling is an incredibly important part of price discovery and healthy markets. But how short sellers and short selling in general interacts with tools of mass citizen communication is still worth thinking about. Even if that's only to filter or apply a lens to how we view dire doom predictions that get made on Twitter. Allow Deutsche Bank was not the only major financial institution under pressure heading into the weekend. The market for credit default swaps on Charles Schwab surged higher on Friday now sitting 20% above previous highs for the year and 40% higher than their level earlier this month. Schwab customers removed 8.8 billion from money market funds over three days in the wake of the Silicon Valley bank collapse, placing the money into government backed bonds instead. Mike Peterson a Schwab spokesman said at the time, quote, those shifts from one category to the other happen all the time. This one is larger but as part of a broad industry trend and is not unique to Schwab. On Friday, Schwab's CEO walked bettinger told The Wall Street Journal that, quote, there would be a sufficient amount of liquidity right there to cover if 100% of our banks deposits ran off without having to sell a single security. Other analysts, though, are not so sure. Porter Collins, a portfolio manager at seawolf capital, claimed that Schwab quote mismanaged the balance sheet. Collins, who notably has an open short, said that, quote, the problems that they made a big rate bet and it's gone the wrong way on them. According to last year's financials, Schwab had more than 11 billion in unrealized losses on its hold to maturity bond portfolio, exceeding its tangible common equity of just over 6 billion. While most of those bonds are government backed and therefore eligible for fed liquidity programs, such a large mismatch could still be a serious test of those fed facilities. You're definitely seeing some folks on Finn twit get panicky, known as dollar tweets, Charles Schwab showing signs of potential distress has 7.13 trillion USD under management across all subsidiaries. This would truly be a black swan event. However, others presented the other view. Joey politano writes just for context on this because people are acting panicky, 80% of deposits at Schwab's main partner bank are insured compared to 5% of silicon valley bank before its collapse. Much more of Schwab's losses on held to maturity securities, the kind that help bring down Silicon Valley bank are already incorporated into regulatory capital components and ratios too. Obviously, there's a level of withdrawals that no institution can survive, see Credit Suisse. And bank runs are hard to predict sociological phenomenon, but maybe discount forecasts from people who say, quote, unrealized losses on deposits, instead of quote unrealized losses on assets. And speaking of Joey politano, he also updated us about a resolution from an earlier part of the banking crisis. This morning he wrote, Silicon Valley bank has a buyer, first citizens. They're taking over all deposits and loans, though not 90 billion in securities and other assets. Branches of SPV will open as for citizens on Monday. The FDIC estimates the failure of SPV will cost the deposit insurance fund $20 billion. The FDIC said Silicon Valley bank had a 119 billion in deposits as of March 10th, the day it was put into receivership and it had a 175 billion as of its last regulatory filing on December 31st, which means about 56 billion in deposits were pulled out during the initial run. For citizens will gain all deposits in 72 billion of Silicon Valley bridge bank assets at a discount of 16.5 billion. Now, the market liked the news this morning. Regional banks were up in general and first citizens specifically was up 44%. Now, one last end note to a story from before, you'll remember how the last phase of chaos in the Credit Suisse story was kicked off by the Saudi national bank chair, the leader of CS's largest investor, saying that they would quote absolutely not be investing more into Credit Suisse. That was widely attributed to triggering or at least exacerbating a run that would ultimately kill the bank, which in turn obviously hurt that investment. Well, that bank chair is resigning for quote unquote personal reasons, according to a statement today. Life comes at you fast. Anyways, guys, that is the story of where banks are right now. I really do think it's important. Not to be glib or pollyannish about the real issues that these banks are facing. But to also take each situation on its own terms and merits. To understand that by virtue of these being publicly traded stocks, there are incentives for people to want more turmoil and more failure. And to just incorporate that into how we're thinking about everything. In the same way that it would be silly to just assume and accept every mainstream media narrative presented to you about banks or anything else. I think there is a real risk of over correcting and assuming that everything the mainstream media or government says is just a priori false. But over the next few months, I'm sure we'll get a chance to see who is closer to correct. Until tomorrow guys be safe and take care of each other. Peace
The Breakdown
Is Credit Suisse the Next Banking Domino?
"Right Friends, today we are talking about the same thing that everyone in traditional markets is talking about, which is Credit Suisse. Bloomberg's headline Blair's Credit Suisse and fight to win back confidence as shares plunge. And that headline has recently been updated to the even scarier Credit Suisse ignites global market route as banking fears return. So what's going on is Credit Suisse the next domino is it a big nothing burger? Is it something totally different, but it doesn't matter that it's totally different because all people here is bank failure and they get scared, let's dive in. So Credit Suisse has been looking shaky for a while. It's in the midst of a larger restructuring process by which its investment banking division will be spun out and the bank will focus just on its wealth management division. This is actually its second big strategic pivot in the last two years and obviously in the world of banking, that sort of bobbing and weaving isn't necessarily something investors get too excited about. To say nothing of course of depositors. Now right now, the specter of Silicon Valley bank is hanging not only over Credit Suisse, but the whole banking sector. This is despite the fact that Credit Suisse's leadership says there's no comparison, and that the bank trying to get back to profitability after changing its strategy has nothing to do with the extreme liquidity issues of smaller U.S. banks. However, this morning markets were further roiled when the chairman of the Saudi national bank, which is Credit Suisse's biggest shareholder, said that they would not be investing any more money into the beleaguered bank. The chairman of the Saudi national bank said that the biggest reason is just regulatory and statutory reasons that prevent them from boosting their share beyond the just under 10% they own now. Now as prosaic that might be, it obviously still wasn't good news. CSS shares were down as much as 29% hitting a new all time low. They're one year default swaps are also in a distress zone currently sitting around 18 X, the one year CDS for UBS, and 9 X for Deutsche Bank. Now, all in all, there are two big and quite different interpretations of what's going on. Investor in China perma bear, Kyle bass writes the recent collapse of SVB, signature bank, and silvergate bank was a warmup of larger things to come outside of U.S. borders. Credit Suisse's 5 year insurance against default has gone parabolic this morning, given their capital structure they now have three weeks or less to be sold.
CryptoCompare
Market Analysis Report 09 Feb 2023
"10 a.m. Thursday, February 9th, 2023 market analysis report February 9th, 2023. Coinbase CEO psyched rumors of U.S. crypto staking band kraken faces SEC probe over unregistered securities Deutsche Bank's DWS in talks to invest in two crypto firms.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm going to Deutsche Bank, jumping on for us on a training floor over at Deutsche Bank Tom. The Deutsche Bank center, which replaces us. For those of you worldwide, there's an iconic set of two towers at the south's West End of Central Park, the Time Warner center. Which is now 6 iterations of Deutsche Bank. The Warner Brothers discovery center, I guess is what we would call it. And for Deutsche Bank to move, I believe, uptown here, which I've heard is really worked out well. There's real plus plus to that. If you live on the upper west side, for that matter. It's fantastic. Yeah, you can walk. I'm not sure many other people do. We haven't. There's sometimes it's like the 59th street bridge. It's had like 5 names. It's a 59th street bridge. You just want to stick with that. You're all positive. Paul Simon and Simon Garfunkel told me that's what I told you. I do, yeah, of course. That's a music. Louise. I did not. Futures, look at them, John. They just won't give it up. I mean, there's a real deterioration of their 1%. What a beautiful partnership this is. As we shut this one down, yields are just a little bit harder three things. Shut it down. In 5 minutes, jobless claims come out. I'm not. I'm going to go to the other studio. Great lineup in the next hour on Bloomberg TV. Michael constitution of Richard birthday. Sacred so credit sites. Moffett nathanson, you think I get expended in the other studio. Can there is really important. That's an important conversation with Richard Branson. And likewise, with Michael nathanson too. He's okay. It's actually all right as well. With Mona we need to talk about. Do you remember a year ago, everyone said Chinese stocks on investable? And now all of a sudden what? What a change. What a difference I say, a running mate. Yeah, enjoy the eggs Benedict. Thank you. So fresh orange juice is wow freshly squeezed if you want. Like the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With Alan ruskin of Deutsche Bank, the past for Jerome Powell, into 2023. Well, I think they tried to steer the market to where they think rates should be. And obviously they've got a little bit of a problem right now because the markets are very persistent in its thought process that the fed's going to be cutting rates in 2023. I think the intriguing aspect of what you have right now is that we thought the fed would probably lose control or could lose control of the back end of the curve because back in heels were too high. And QT would maybe push yields higher. And we've got exactly the reverse problem. With healed more consistent with a 3% funds rate than a 5% funds rate. So the market's not really listening to the fed, it's not the worst problem the fed could have, that I think a fed is still trying to steer the curve higher in terms of healed. Alan, do you see them being successful in doing so? Not at this meeting necessarily. I think the odds are that the 2023 and 2023 dot is between four and three quarters and 5%. It looked like it would maybe be a bit higher than that before CPI, but I think I'd probably as a reasonable guesstimate of where that median dot will be. That's not far from where the weather market effectively believes the peak will be anyway. It's really the discrepancy, I think, is in the rate cuts that follow very soon after. The market thinks this is going to be more of a traditional cycle. You catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify, and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A conversation with mount lisette of Deutsche Bank on the shock of disinflation. No doubt, you know, you look at the headline numbers, you look at core, better than expected decelerations in a number of items. I think interestingly, we didn't mention it yet, but rent and OER were actually strong. They rebounded and bounced back up .8 .7%. Those are the sticky items we know are going to be there. I think in terms of the market certainly doesn't look at nuance at this point and I think rightfully so, because it's a lower print. But if you think about some of the nuances here, Mike mentioned, you have medical services inflation in the CPI very, very weak. That's something that sticks with us throughout the rest of the year. But it's a completely different story in PCE. And so I think a big question and kind of story over the next year will be PC and CPR are going to converge a lot. They're going to converge a lot because you have different measures of healthcare inflation in the two of those. And disinflation in both of them, but it's going to be less disinflation in the metric that the fed looks at. And the metric that the fed targets. How do you think champ and pound navigates this one tomorrow? It's one where obviously they can step down to 50 basis points. I really do think that they want to step down to 25 basis points as quickly as they can. And so data of this nature allows them likely to do that in the February meeting if we get another data point like this. And that really then allows them to calibrate policy the best that they can. If there is a path to a soft landing, going to down to 25 basis points in February, helps to optimize that. I think they also want to avoid this kind of stop start tightening cycle that they may have to do, meaning pause only to re hike at some point. I think they can avoid that the best by stepping down to 25 basis points at the February meeting. This type of data helps that. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Please listen anytime. I'm Bloomberg dot
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With Matt lizette of Deutsche Bank on the shark of disinflation. No doubt, you know, you look at the headline numbers, you look at core, better than expected decelerations in a number of items. I think interestingly, we didn't mention it yet, but rent and OER were actually strong. They rebounded and bounced back up .8 .7%. Those are the sticky items we know are going to be there. I think in terms of the market certainly doesn't look at nuance at this point and I think rightfully so, because it's a lower print. But if you think about some of the nuances here, Mike mentioned, you have medical services inflation in the CPI very, very weak. That's something that sticks with us throughout the rest of the year. But it's a completely different story in PCE. And so I think a big question and kind of story over the next year will be PC and CPR are going to converge a lot. They're going to converge a lot because you have different measures of healthcare inflation in the two of those. And you're going to see disinflation in both of them, but it's going to be less disinflation in the metric that the fed looks at. And the metric that the fed targets. How do you think champagne? Navigates this one tomorrow. It's one where obviously they can step down to 50 basis points. I really do think that they want to step down to 25 basis points as quickly as they can. And so data of this nature allows them likely to do that in the February meeting if we get another data point like this. And that really then allows them to calibrate policy the best that they can. If there is a path to a soft landing, going to down to 25 basis points in February, helps to optimize that. I think they also want to avoid this kind of stop start tightening cycle that they may have to do, meaning pause only to re hike at some point. I think they can avoid that the best by stepping down to 25 basis points at the February meeting. This time data helps that. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Please listen anytime. I'm Bloomberg dot com. I learned patience for my adoptive dad. All he had to say was. Hey, you got this. Just breathe. Hey. We're pretty good. Yeah. I have to
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With Matt lizette of Deutsche Bank on the shock of disinflation. No doubt, you know, you look at the headline numbers, you look at core, better than expected decelerations in a number of items. I think interestingly, we didn't mention it yet, but rent and OER were actually strong. They rebounded and bounced back up .8 .7%. Those are the sticky items we know are going to be there. I think in terms of the market certainly doesn't look at nuance at this point and I think rightfully so because it's a lower print. But if you think about lots this year, Mike mentioned, you have medical services inflation in the CPI very, very weak. That's something that sticks with us throughout the rest of the year. But it's a completely different story in PCE. And so I think a big question and kind of story over the next year will be PC and CPR are going to converge a lot. They're going to converge a lot because you have different measures of healthcare inflation in the two of those. And disinflation in both of them, but it's going to be less disinflation in the metric that the fed looks at. And the metric that the fed targets. How do you think chairman navigates this one tomorrow? It's one where obviously they can step down to 50 basis points. I really do think that they want to step down to 25 basis points as quickly as they can. And so data of this nature allows them likely to do that in the February meeting if we get another data point like this. And that really then allows them to calibrate policy the best they can. If there is a path to a soft landing, going to down to 25 basis points in February, helps to optimize that. I think they also want to avoid this kind of stop start tightening cycle that they may have to do, meaning pause only to re hike at some point. I think they can avoid that the best by stepping down to 25 basis points at the February meeting. This time data helps that. Catch more of this in other conversations on today's Bloomberg surveillance podcast. Subscribe to Apple, Spotify
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Center stage, including UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Credit Suisse, Bloomberg's April roach joins us for more. Good morning, April. Morning. All right, April, so this is a big one. What can we expect from Credit Suisse's planned update on its strategy review this Thursday? Yes. So the bank is reported to be considering the sale of its U.S. asset management operations and also its peculiar products business. The investors will be keen to find out if the comprehensive strategy review will include any details on the future of either of these units. But the big question really is whether the bank will need to raise additional funds via capital increase, which could result in the dilution of Credit Suisse's stock. So all in all this hotly weighted announcement really could see a significant reshaping of Credit Suisse business. Concerns and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar expected to impact Deutsche Bank earnings for also getting this week. Yes, so Deutsche Bank also due to report this week. And U.S. dollar gains are actually expected to support fixed income trade and results in Euros for Deutsche Bank, the company earns more from fixed income in comparison to its peers with a 25 to 30% top line exposure. And last month, Deutsche Bank said it was on track to reach the top end of its 2022 revenue guidance as higher interest rates more than offset the impact from our economy. But investors will also be looking at bonuses when it comes to Deutsche Bank as the European Central Bank has put more pressure on lenders to exercise restraint. Our April, let's think about Barclays. I mean, how important is cost control management going to be for the bank? Yes, so for Barclays, cost control will definitely be in focus with the UK bank likely looking to reinsure investors. It can maintain its 16.7 billion pound cost outlook for the year and that's especially after the recent expensive paperwork blunder in the U.S.. But analysts say that Barclays should be able to achieve the top end of its 2022 net interest margin guidance and the strengthening of the dollar could also feature with Barclays results with a potential revenue beat. But finally, there may be questions on how rising UK mortgage rates and the potential for high expected credit losses could impact the bank's results. I mean, the full year guidance is certainly 16.7 billion pounds. Is that going to be achievable for the bank? Well, analysts say that it should be achievable and that Buckley should be able to maintain it with the announcement of its third quarter results. So yes, we should see that they will be able to keep this guidance in place. Okay, great stuff, April roach, thank you very much for taking us through some of those big corporate names that we are watching out for later today. Just to give you a reminder of the main corporate headline that we have from this morning and that's from Phillips, which is announced it's going to cut 4000 jobs globally as it starts to restructuring program. That's going to cost them around €300 million in charges in the coming quarters, but they're going to start that workforce reduction immediately the company says, so that is the latest edit Phillips this morning, of course, plenty of corporate companies reporting this week. It's going to be a very busy week on the earnings front. So plenty to watch out for there as well and that is something that we will be covering not only a quest right the morning as we get those headlines, but in the London rush with Charles cable at 8 20 this morning a little bit earlier than usual as of course we're keeping a main focus on the political situation here in the UK as well. Coming up next on the program though we will be talking more about what's moving markets this morning. We'll be looking ahead to what we might hold at major conference hosted for the London metals exchange and of course the ECB decision we've got U.S. GDP out there as well and what whether this calm that we've seen restored to the guilt markets may be restored or may continue as we are potentially
Mark Levin
Donald Trump Jr. Responds to New York AG Letitia James' Filiing
"Tisha James has her friends in the media caller She's filed a very long document that is really grotesque And I wanted you to have an opportunity to respond to that since you're named in it for crying out loud Well I'm named so much that even after a full day of testimony when I believe they had 12 lawyers from the attorney general's office because New York is not going into enough of a hellhole They needed to have 12 attorneys from the attorney general's office on the other side of the table against me This is what's going on I'm named in like the last paragraph of this thing because apparently there was nothing wrong with my testimony I refuted all of those things But again you know it's a good soundbite to name Donald Trump Jr. So you do that right It doesn't have to do with the law right They can say well Trump over valued the asset and Deutsche Bank One of the largest financial institutions just blindly took his word for it I mean the whole premise of it is insane Deutsche Bank lent money to my father the loans were paid back They made millions in interest I'm trying to figure out who's the victim that the attorney general is so zealously trying to defend You know they say there were things that were overvalued but one of the assets I believe was the old post office our hotel in Washington D.C. it was valued to my recollection at a $125 million We sold it a few months ago for $400 million So was that undervalued Do we get some sort of credit for that Or do they only play the soundbites that they magically come up with You saw Mar-a-Lago and Mark you've been there They said should be valued at $75 million No way For 450 million that's a third of the size If they can make up whatever they want and because it's New York there's no accountability that no one cares Everyone's happy that their weaponizing these offices no different than the FBI did when they used the hostage rescue team
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We are united not least because we have a significant amount of challenges that we face together, she faces as the new prime minister, whether it's inflation, relative unions, NHS backlogs, or indeed the challenges overseas, and so we don't have a choice. We have to come together as a party. I think we will come together as a party and I think she will make every effort to unify us and move us forward as a country. She certainly has my support. We do that and it's critical that my colleagues get on board with the new administration and new government as we try and make lives a little easier for people in this very different the new administration, new government as we try and make lives a little easier for people in this very difficult time. I mean, Gareth, there's a note out from Deutsche Bank and the team there that's making rounds here in the city today, warning of a potential balance of payments, crisis potential currency crisis, even talking about an IMF bailout for the UK. It's a dire situation that the Conservative Party and the conservative government have left us in would be the argument. And this is clearly a boon for the opposition. Well, just look at what's causing the surging inflation. We've got a high inflation in 40 years. I sit on the treasury slack committing, we have expert witnesses, the Bank of England governors and presidents on Wednesday for Brexit has Brexit Brexit hasn't helped. Has it? It's exacerbated that. No matter who you are, what they will tell you is that this inflation is global in nature and it is important. It has been driven largely by surging global energy costs that have been exacerbated in a certain circumstances driven by the war in Ukraine. And so you look around the world, you'll see surging inflation everywhere. So I think it's a bit rich to our opponents to lay this their labors and the government because all governments are facing this challenge. What we're focused on now is how we make life a little easier in these very difficult times and that's what I'm confident the new partners will do. Gareth, thank you so much for being with us. Thank you for your time. Appreciate it. It's a very busy day and lots of hair, Gareth Davis is the conservative MP for grantham and Stamford. I think it's going to be very interesting because we're going to get the labor perspective actually on this. A very shortly Rebecca long Bailey the former shadow Secretary of State for business energy and industrial strategy is a current labor MP well-known
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Hi, everybody. Asian equity futures are looking pretty solid this morning most of them are higher hang seng index futures are up 8 tenths of a percent China futures are up. Australian futures are up futures though are just down a little bit suggesting maybe a hundred odd .75 to a hundred points of downside at the open. So here's the sexy story that I just referred to China's property slump is a bigger threat than it's lockdowns. So you're right, that's an assertion, but here's the backup. It's the worst decline on record, and it could hold growth below 4% for the rest of the decade. An index that tracks apartment and how sales as opposed to year on year declines for 11 months now. That's a record since China created a private property market back in the 1990s. The demand for services and commodities generated by housing construction and sales accounts for about 20% of GDP and that represents a very big drag on growth. This year, by the way, looking at growth globally, Deutsche Bank CEO sees the probability of a global downturn at 50%, Citi says likewise, says that U.S. junk rated bonds indicate 50% chance of recession, risk premia on some of the lowest rated debt are closing in on 1000 bps, and that's considered a distress levels. That said, our U.S. stocks ended up kind of flat for the day was a choppy day of trading with very wild swings. The S&P 500 did snap a two day rally, but essentially held on to the big games over that period. And a big drop in oil were down to $103 41 cents a barrel. That is a check of markets. Headline news with Ed Baxter in San Francisco. All right, thank you, Brian, as a brick summit opens. China's president Xi Jinping has slammed sanctions for weaponizing the world economy. Meanwhile, president Putin says trade with India
WTOP
"deutsche bank" Discussed on WTOP
"And 55 on WTO This is a Bloomberg money minute The Securities and Exchange Commission wants to know just what kind of messages bankers and traders have been sending each other Sources say the SEC wants to examine more than a hundred phones to see what's been said on platforms such as WhatsApp About a year ago a JPMorgan review of the use of such apps culminated with ousters $200 million in regulatory fines Bloomberg's Michael Moore says the concern has grown over a couple of years This is become an area of focus for regulators especially in the pandemic as you have more people working from home Earlier this year Moore says Deutsche Bank warned staff not to delete communications You've seen Deutsche Bank the vocal with its employees here of reminding them of their policies trying to make sure that they don't run a foul Bloomberg's chanelle basic says this is a very big deal With a lot of hedge funds starting to capital markets desks and being involved in these block trades which was makes this investigation so important to so much of Wall Street Third parties you're examining the phones to try and maintain privacy From the Bloomberg newsroom I'm Greg Jarrett on WTO P Coming up after traffic and weather during a commencement address today President Biden lamented the loss of life in recent mass shootings We'll have that coming up in just a couple of minutes here on WTO P ten 26 Silver diners new seasonal menu has something for everyone from the new barbecue chicken drumettes with succotash over cheesy polenta to the locally sourced new market farms roasted tomatoes vegan entree And if that doesn't make you hungry you can always.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is backing joining NATO as well And NATO ministers in Europe this weekend are by and large supporting this move Shanghai as we've been talking about emerging from complete COVID lockdown mode with this now day two of no new known cases of community spread of COVID in Shanghai the only cases detected in Shanghai are those in quarantine In New York governor Kathy hochul calling for gun control after a gunman killed ten people in Buffalo and injured several others Investigators say this is being investigated as a racially motivated violent extreme attack and high profile whistleblower has died This is Val broke Smit He leaked secret files to FBI investigators looking at Deutsche Bank and money laundering that was the allegation at least was 46 his dad worked at the bank And it's not clear how the broke Smith junior passed away Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than a 120 countries In the newsroom I'm to these Pellegrini This has Bloomberg Kathleen Denise thanks so much Well as the trading week gets underway starting in Asia the big focus so far has been a trio of economic data economic activity retail sales investment industrial production will be getting those well just minutes from now But we already found out that the people's bank of China seems to think they have enough even ample liquidity so they don't have to cut their ML of their medium term lending facility Let's put it all together with end occur and he's Bloomberg's chief Asia economics correspondent So anda what's your reaction to holding steady on the ML F There are two things going on with John Central Bank this morning Kathleen You're right when it comes to the money market They didn't change their one year lending rate That's been considered a sign that the authorities think there's enough money in the financial system And by lowering that rate it won't necessarily mean there's more money going to be lent out into the real economy The bigger news with the central buying con Beijing actually came over the weekend That was a move They made in terms of adjusting lower the mortgage rate for first time hum bars Now that move in and of itself isn't expected to turn around John is real estate market but it does underscore that the authorities are now going beyond being worried about China's property slowdown undertaking very material steps And that's that yesterday was a clear indication that the authorities are now going to do take more measures to measure to prop up the property market It's very interesting I'm sure you're aware of the publication cheer sure The Communist Party journal that's published remarks over the weekend made in December by the Chinese president Xi on the improper accumulation of wealth And the risk it poses to a healthy economy So there's a lot of nuance here I think you put your finger on it What does this say about what we're likely to get at the end of the week with the 5 year LPR Do you think they're going to tweak that rate Well the banks sometimes move instead with the Central Bank with the PBOC we saw a big collapsing credit last month It's hard to know if lower interest rates are really what China's economy needs right now I think you've got to sit back and say the two big issues are the kind of slow burn destruction of the some of the big property developers in China And that's a whole story about too much debt and the business model they've been operating on But the other core story is the COVID lockdowns that's hammering the economy And it's kind of a feeling out there that lower interest rates don't really change too much at all Unless you're targeting the property sector which is what we saw on Sunday There are marks that come out in the sheet speech into party magazine The message wasn't new per se He's been talking about the risks of disorderly capital financial risk in the system unemployment for a while But it's interesting that he gave that speech in December at the works conference And the economy was in such a different space but then China did not have COVID It's covered zero policy was working very effectively And here we are now 5 6 months later And of course the economy is in a tailspin suffering both from the property downturn and the ongoing lockdown So it's very different circumstances for when he gave that speech to what we were now So it's part of the strategy here ride this out you know just keep your fingers crossed and hope that he vaccinated up older people that if they get sick they won't die and ultimately this will kind of Peter out because of that people will get it Even though the official numbers are very low but retail sales are supposed to fall 6.6% That's a really weak number for China property investment is not going to look good and it's a bleak picture and they haven't done much and they can't do much That's what it seems like until they get COVID back under control Yeah it seems it all comes down to what will the COVID strategy be and all of the official pronouncements Kathleen are that they are sticking with COVID zero this is from the standing committee down There won't be any change of course there was that big study from fudan university last week saying if you were to allow COVID spread in China they would have a very high rate of fatalities The authorities do not want a public health crisis on their hands before the party Congress in November But then you have to ask the question okay if you're going to do that what does it mean for the economy And that's only to frame how we're looking at the economy and clearly they're talking about containing outbreaks I'm trying to minimize economic damage at the same time That's very difficult to do Economists talk about a kind of a.m. wheel spinning in the sand type situation in China whereby one step forward to put money into the economy but that's offset by these lockdowns and the impact that it has on consumers and to some extent on industrial production So it seems to be covered zero That's the message from the top The question will be how they can limit the economic economic damage from that other result And when you look at the currency has this been a managed depreciation as a way of keeping exports at a relatively healthy level or is that too cynical It's well I mean if you looked at China's economic fundamentals and you said do you think this should have a stronger exchange rate or a week or change You would say weaker certain the underlying fundamentals certainly merit a weaker currency given what's going on there And by the way don't forget the big divergence with the fed fed going one way China the other.
The Trish Regan Show
Trish Sits Down With KeyCity Capital's Charlie Dombeck
"I'm joined. Again, on the program by my friend Charlie DOM, great to have you back, Charlie from key city capital, who, by the way, has been predicting this, thinking that we were heading in this direction, maybe not as soon as it's happening, but at Charlie, you've been warning about this for quite some time. Give us your reaction to the GDP numbers. Yeah, so in the pandemic, in the early stages, we saw GDP decline, but we expected a recover. We got the recovery. This is a little bit different. We have been talking about this event since I have been working with you on your show. It was a bit unexpected by the markets, but not unexpected by us. And I believe we are in the early stages of an economic correction, potential economic recession. And here's the thing, we have not even experienced the significant interest rate increases at the Federal Reserve is poised to enact. And 13 out of the last 16 times the Federal Reserve increased interest rates, we ended up in a recession. And now you have major banks around the world predicting potentially very severe economic recession coming forward. Yeah. I mean, that was a new report out of Deutsche Bank, just this week. A couple of weeks ago, they said maybe it would be a mild recession. Now they're talking about a major recession. I don't know how the fed manages to move rates that much higher and not actually cause an economic
The Trish Regan Show
Economists See Increasing Possibility of a Recession
"Start first with this kind of schizophrenic market. I mean, I think that's the best way to describe it, right? This is like a form of schizophrenia here because the markets are suddenly higher despite a lot of the bearish signals that we've seen and both from tech companies and their earnings. You've seen bank reports, Deutsche Bank, recent one this week coming out warning of a major recession. We got the GDP report today, showing that the U.S. economy declined by 1.4%. And as I said, you get two quarters of that, and that is the definition of recession, two quarters of consecutive losses in growth, negative growth. But people seem encouraged and part of that reason may be maybe that they're thinking, well, the fed really can't do what it wants to do, right? I mean, the fed is not really going to be able to raise rates the way perhaps it had hoped in light of the negative numbers on GDP. It's also possible that they're looking at some of the consumer spending numbers and saying, well, you know, consumers seem to be holding up, okay? So maybe we'll get through this. I will say this, if Jerome Powell can pull this off, if we can avoid a recession, then he will go down as the greatest fed magician in history.
The Trish Regan Show
Deutsche Bank Warns of a Looming Major Recession
"Right, I want to turn to another big one we're covering Deutsche Bank coming out and saying that there could be a major recession. I told you that. Probably a year ago. I actually have been very, very concerned about inflation as you well know, since July of 2020, I have echoed those concerns over and over and over and over again on this show, urging you course to be prepared for it, which is why we're going to talk about gold in just a moment. But I recently came out and said I did expect a recession, 85% chance anyway of a recession, because I don't know how the fed pulls this one off. I mean, they got to get a rabbit out of the hat somehow, you are telling me that you were going to stop printing all this money. You were going to raise interest rates, which makes everything more expensive, right? So businesses don't want to invest as much. People don't want to go out necessarily and buy that new house because it's going to cost a whole lot more for that new house because interest rates are higher. When you cause the price of money effectively to go up, it has a dampening effect on the economy. Now, best case scenario, the fed is watching this as they go along, right? They always wanted two to 3% inflation. I've always wondered why you even need a 3%, frankly. But I think the idea is you want a little bit, right? Just to incentivize people to be in markets and to do things in the here and now as opposed to waiting 5 years or ten years because there's the threat, the prices will go up. But somehow, this all got off track. They did what they needed to do in March 2020. And then they went crazy. And they just kept spending and spending and printing and printing to the tune of a $120 billion a month that they were buying of mortgage backed securities and treasuries in order to artificially suppress interest rates and keep the money spigot open. Well, now the chickens are coming home to roost, so to speak. And what a bad time. I mean, if it were normal time, maybe they could pull this off although I'd still argue it would be pretty challenging. But this is not a normal time. You get a whole bunch of other things going on. We are looking at worldwide inflation. We've got massive problems on the energy front in terms of what energy is going to cost us and our European allies. I mean, this is what you call one big old giant mess. And I would also add the historically, the fed has never been able to pull this off. Something Deutsche Bank, by the way, noticed in its notes. They said that history shows the fed has quote never been able to correct. Even smaller overshoots of inflation and employment quote without pushing the economy into a significant recession. I mean, I've looked back over the last 80 years. They've never been able to do it.
The Trish Regan Show
Fed Chair Janet Yellen Says US Shouldn't Expect a Recession
"Janet Yellen had a few things to say on this. She's speaking of course at one of the IMF events and didn't interview actually on CNBC with Christina Lagarde and she seems to think that, you know, hey, everything, everything's going to be okay. Listen to her here. I don't expect a recession. Obviously, we are living in our time that's very challenging. And developments in Russia, Ukraine, and yeah, I don't know, is we're not going to have a recession. Wishful thinking, perhaps. On the part of the treasury secretary, I keep in mind she has the treasury secretary now, right? So she has to be, well, she has to carry a certain amount of water for the administration, of course, and nobody wants to talk about recession or recognize that that's a threat, but indeed it is. In fact, Goldman Sachs out recently with the report saying that there was a 35% chance of recession. You've seen a number of banks actually incidentally Deutsche Bank was another come out with increasingly increasing odds of recession. And so this is starting to become part of everybody's vocabulary. I actually think that the odds of recession are way higher and I'm putting them around 85%, 85% chance of recession because there's got to be a pullback in that people can not continue affording what we're seeing, gas prices, for example, food prices, and all of this is protected to grow, continually worse.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Gas price moves that we've seen is that it does begin to filter into longer term inflation expectations We tend to see that particularly for the consumer And so when you look at this inflation picture with wages rising as they have been with the breadth of the price gains that we've seen and ultimately if inflation expectations do begin to rise I think that really kind of undermines the last data point that we could have about this being a temporary transitory story and really we'll tell the fed that they need to move a lot more aggressively They need to get into a restrictive sense much sooner than they currently anticipate Matt let's wrap things up What you predict for this year for 2022 stack that up against what will actually get today including banishing reduction because you guys have Deutsche Bank had thrown out some big numbers Yeah so we think that you'll get 6 hikes from the median dot today We are at 7 rate increases I think there's a very real risk that they move by 50 basis points at the upcoming meetings We were expecting 50 basis points at this meeting before certainly the events that have happened in Ukraine So I think we'll get some messaging that suggests that the market is correct in pricing that risk premium member the next Several meetings Beyond that we think you get the balance sheet on wind We expect about an 800 billion of unwind this year more than a trillion of unwind next year as 1.9 trillion together Which we think is an equivalent of three or four rate increases That I think is a big unknown We've got a lot less guidance from the fed on that So we'll see how much we get there But I think we'll get the continuation of this hawk as messaging from the fed but a continuation that I think will continue to move in a hawkish direction We need to see more than 6 rate increases And we think that you're going to need to see very material balance sheet reduction If Deutsche Bank and the Deutsche Bank center with some massive numbers Matt thank you They told you banks no longer the Time Warner center Tom It's Deutsche Bank now Trying to support their effort I think we did this I get over there once a year It's on 59th street So we're still calling it the time on a center Anyway we'll park that awkward part of the conversation Lisa these are some big numbers Banishing reduction pushing 2 trillion It might not even get started until the summer Yeah and Priya misra was coming up of TV securities things that we are not pricing in balance sheet reduction and then it could start as soon as May I just wonder what they're trying to go for given all of the discussions beforehand John that this is an untried strategy They have a sense of what rate hikes do not so much when it comes to the balance sheet reduction They're going for credibility They're deepest deepest fear and professor summers gave them some slack today on this is the pressure to maintain credibility That is a number one thing or reclaim it Because some people think they've lost it And if you want to reclaim credibility you have to signal the willingness to take this to a restrictive stance By the forecast today And if someone of the indicative of the where the terminal rate is as Mike McKee said where's the terminal rate Tom Kane ELISA brama said Jonathan farrow counting you down to that fed decision about 18 minutes away Up shortly Priya misra of TD and Michael ferroli of JPMorgan.
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"U.S. customers representing up to about a million vehicles on the road in America, which could result in noticeable impact on take rate and profitability. So my understanding is that some safety scores of 98 have been able to access beta but not all yet, so I wonder if this wider expansion would be maybe 10.8 if the initial stages of that release go well. Elon did say that 10.7 should arguably be called 11. Don't think any non employees have had that one, but some of the information has come out, including showing the new visualization for path pointing, which does look a little bit more wide release ready, more like navigate on autopilot. So we'll see on that either way, I don't think I really expect Tesla to recognize a significant chunk of any deferred revenue this quarter. Might as well wait to continue making progress continue rolling things out and probably better to recognize it during the big portion of the cost of the ramps for Berlin and Austin. Hitting the financials, all else being equal. All right, lastly, then .7, they write making progress with 46 80 cells development as 90% of the manufacturing processes are working at expected run rate and Tesla working on the remaining 10%. Progress update expected at Q four earnings. So I can't remember if this matches rumors that we have heard or if it matches comments that Tesla's made at the Q three earnings call are the shareholder meeting. I looked at the transcripts for both I didn't see this, but it's good that they've got 90% figured out and from previous comments we know Tessa feels confident in solving the remaining 10%, but they're still open question of if that remaining 10% ends up taking 10% of the work or 90% of the work, and then how much Tesla can actually produce in the interim with that remaining 10% still unresolved. Wrapping up with that Deutsche Bank note then over all they say, quote, all in with considerable volume cost and operating leverage momentum, we continue to see large upside to 2022 consensus expectations, depending on execution of new factories ramp up and supply chain, bottlenecks. Midterm, we believe Tesla's impressive trajectory for its battery technology, capacity, and especially cost, will continue to accelerate the world's shift to electric vehicles and extend Tesla's lead considerably. It should also enable Tesla to keep expanding its operating margins likely exceeding 20% over the next few years, representing very best in class performance, reiterate by. And by the way, they have a $1000 price target on the stock. And I agree that Tesla looks likely to exceed 20% operating margins. All right, next up here we've got a pretty significant software update that's in the early stages of rolling out. Looks like the version number is 2021 44 25, tweeted this out last night, but first posted on Reddit by user emulsified so a whole bunch of new features this kind of overhauls the model three and model Y user interface to look more like the refresh Model S and X brings in the customizable app launcher and brings in a.
Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Tesla Daily: Tesla News & Analysis
"News on EPA emissions standards, the model Y, Tesla semi and a couple other things as well. Strong day for the markets today, pretty much across the board, especially for growth stocks. The NASDAQ finished up 2.4% and Tesla doing even a bit better at 4.3% to $938 53 cents. So first up we've got a note from Deutsche Bank. This is from December 14th, but this is the first time that I've seen it appear this is from Gary black who shared this note out on Twitter. And this is Deutsche Bank's recap of their conversation with Tesla's investor relations had Martin vieja, from their auto tech conference, which we had previously talked about that took place on December 9th and tenth. So quite a few interesting points here, they say that this note details Tesla's message on many of its current key topics, and then they say that the key takeaways from Tesla include number one puts and takes for fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 margins, volume and pricing sequentially positive, raw materials headwind, less than pricing, cost of ramping up Berlin and Austin likely higher than Shanghai due to new vehicle specs and technologies. So we've been talking about this for most of the year. The price increases that we have been consistently seeing, at least in the U.S., have not fully hit Tesla's financials yet. So Tesla here apparently saying that as volume increases sequentially or deliveries, prices will increase as well as those price increases start to get reflected from the order backlog. Now, importantly, they say that though raw materials are increasing, looks like that little less than pricing thing indicates that Tesla's price increases are more than offsetting those raw materials price increases. So that's good for margins. Deutsche Bank gives a little bit more information on that in a later point as well. Now Tesla here may be meaning that average selling prices would increase sequentially. I kind of expected that in Q three and we didn't see that happen. They actually fell. That surprised me if that flips back the other way, that's going to be great for margins, but it is worth noting that just because price increases will happen, it doesn't necessarily mean the average selling price will increase because we have to consider mix. And if there's enough mix shift, even if all versions have price increases, that could still end up with a lower average selling price. As for the cost of ramping Austin and Berlin being more expensive than Shanghai, I think that's to be expected. More new technology as noted that could end up also leading to a bit slower of a ramp. And then on costs alone, obviously doing business in Austin or Berlin is just going to be a little bit more expensive naturally than Shanghai. Thankfully, the rest of Tesla's business is now more robust, so they can more easily offset the cost of more expensive ramps. All right, Deutsche Bank's second key takeaway from Tesla was strong confidence operating margin will keep expanding over time from the 14% reported in Q three. Really nothing new there. I think we all expect that and we recently talked about how Zack stated this on the Q three earnings call, but always a good reminder..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Under the recovery plan But we heard from the budget commissioner yesterday that we might not actually see another green bond sale this year of course it depends on requests from member states As to what they need for green spending but the EU is also selling bonds generally under its recovery plan conventional bonds So we'll likely see some more of that before the end of the year But green bond sales you might have to hold on to your hats and wait for next year Okay we'll wait and see if we get anything this year then how do we oh how does the block ensure that we don't see any green washing here We spoke earlier on on Bloomberg TV to Henrik Johnson of Deutsche Bank go ahead of capital markets there and he was saying he does expect regulation to come into force and that might weigh on issue ends Not necessarily from sovereigns but maybe in the corporate space How is the block then ensuring that we don't have green washing on on its watch So yes so the EU has also been a leader in this field There's a bunch of regulation which is coming through the pipeline at the moment which is designed to address the very issue of green watching The EU itself in terms of its green bond issuance isn't using its own green bond standard for now It's relying on other rules from the ica And that's mainly because the green bond standards do us to pass through the parliament and the council But I don't think anyone sees being a real issue of the EU green washing itself It's more to do with other issuers and the EU is doing a number of different things to try and combat that such as disclosure regulation And we'll be seeing a lot more of that over the coming months and years And John today we're expecting the EU to publish details kind of outlining what member states can do to protect the most vulnerable from the energy price surge that we've seen across the continent What do you expect to hear from from those changes or at least those that guidance from the EU Yeah so as I'm sure all the listeners are aware our energy prices have been rising quite dramatically And there's been a lot of pressure from EU member states for the block to outline exactly what it is they can do to help shield the most vulnerable citizens and companies we've seen a number of issues with companies struggling to deal with the energy prices So today we're going to get some more clarity from the EU Don't expect a lot It's an overview of existing measures and rules within state aid There's some allowances for tax cuts on a short term basis For example beyond that there's calls for the EU to introduce the joint procurement of gas which would mean less reliance on suppliers like Russia Putin is obviously sensing an opportunity to perhaps reshape the energy relationship with the EU Longer term I think the EU is definitely sticking to its guns to push for more renewable energy not less and to move away from a reliance on gas So these problems aren't so grave in the future And we're certainly seeing the aftermath of the higher or the ongoing impact of the higher gas prices and electricity prices having an impact on businesses Nia star which makes zinc cutting production of its three European smelters by up to 50% in response to surging power costs they have facilities across Europe Thanks very much John for joining us John angel joining us there from Brussels Let's get the latest in global news.
The Breakdown with NLW
Daos, NFTS and Crypto Derivatives Win Attention as Billionaire Paulson Calls Crypto Worthless
"What are the interesting things about. Hedge funds and venture investors. Is that often times. One really big contrarian bet that pays off can solidify investors reputation for a very very long time. John paulson had one of those bets. Betting against the housing market in advance of the great financial crisis. That position ended up netting him and his investors something like twenty billion dollars which is very clearly a career defining bet however it hasn't been quite as good since then at peak in twenty eleven pulse and managed thirty eight billion that was down to nine billion by twenty nineteen when he shut down his hedge fund and started managing his own money an estimated three point five billion instead this is not the scoff at three point five billion dollar fortune but simply to point out the paulsen is proven himself to be pretty firmly in the camp of one really good call which perhaps takes the sting out of his recent comments on bloomberg wealth with david. Rubenstein about crypto. The setup to that combo is one. Many bitcoin is in particular will resonate with basically he says that an expanded money supply is going to drive inflation. His bet however big time is gold. He's backed it for years. And this apparently is finally. It's moment crypto. On the other hand he says will eventually prove to be worthless. I wouldn't recommend anyone. Invest in crypto currencies. Santiago santos said on twitter. It's hard to know. How much is luck versus skill and investing unless you can win and lose on purpose to this day. I doubt my ability. Here's paulson who got a tip from a deutsche bank trader too short housing poor track record since won't be as lucky. This time with crypto masari's ryan sell. Kiss was a bit snark here. John paulson must be bitter. That about thirty crypto investors and entrepreneurs have now leapfrogged him in net worth betting on gold versus digital gold financial internet and the user owned economy at this point is record shadowing boomer energy. What a savage and true phrase record shattering boomer energy
Bloomberg Daybreak: Europe
Deutsche Bank Reports Its Best Quarterly Profit in Seven Years
"A waste no more time to bring you into Line with the bank earnings. Deutsche Bank first quarter thick revenue up 34% versus 17% Wall Street average they reporting their highest quarterly profits and 2014 and they're raising their 2021 outlook Forecasting flat group sales will
Mac OS Ken
Deutsche Bank Is Still Hot for Apple Shares
"Deutsche. Bank is still hot for apple. Shares tip ranks has deutsche bank analyst sydney ho issuing a note offering iphone numbers about which i do not care. Okay that's not true. The numbers are interesting and notable. Though the part i find most interesting is his news around apple retail about half of apple store. Customers have come back like physically. According to mr ho wall store traffic bottomed out. In the spring of twenty twenty it has improved sense and is now at about forty percent of fifty percent of the volume seen pre pandemic. It's like the reverse of that. Nature is healing thing as for iphone. Those numbers are relatively consistent. In fact those are his words tip. Rank says since the pandemic's onset the iphone share of the us installed base and length of smartphone ownership has remained in hose words relatively consistent when looking to make a smartphone purchase. The beat goes on to say fifty seven percent of iphone users and tend to get the latest model just below the fifty nine percent. Who plan to do so. In december of twenty nineteen storage wise lesser inclined to get five hundred twelve gigabyte models the highest amount of bailable although sixty four gigabytes appears to be insufficient to most since december twenty nineteen consumers. Buying sixty four gigabyte models have dropped from percent to eight percent while in the same period those purchasing one hundred twenty eight gigabyte models grew from twelve percent to twenty four percent. Sounds like a better asap to me as for the five g super cycle. Ho doesn't seem to think it's here yet. Quoting his note. The launch of five g smartphones does not seem to have significantly change the length of smartphone ownership both iphone and other although we do expect a refresh cycle to accelerate when five g. infrastructure is more built out. Deutsche bank has by reading on apple shares. the firm's price target on the shares is one hundred sixty dollars
The Breakdown with NLW
Is $50,000 BTC the Beginning of a Bitcoin Supercycle?
"What's going on guys. It is tuesday february sixteenth. And today we are talking about. You know it fifty thousand dollar bitcoin and specifically whether it's shows that we are in a bitcoin super cycle so i the news after a week or so of threatening the rubicon was breached this morning between seven forty five and eight am eastern time. Bitcoin punched up above fifty thousand. Now it immediately met cell wall and had a six hundred dollar candle down in is at the time of recording closer to forty nine thousand but to me that technical response is far less significant than these psychological barrier of a fifty thousand dollar being breached so today's special early breakdown is all about that. I reached out to followers this morning. Asking what topics you all thought were important for a fifty k. Show i also popped into a couple of different clubhouse chats to see what people were focused on and overwhelmingly across both of those mediums. The thing that people wanted to talk about is whether this is another indicator that we're in a bitcoin super cycle. I'm going to discuss this. It's going to be the main focus of the show. What the idea of a super cycle is where it came from what it might mean and some different ways to look at it but first let's blast through a few of the other topics folks wanted to disgust. Let's try to start with something that if not negative is sort of dismissive to be honest. It's kind of hard to find those bitcoin stomping face but here we are peter. Brant tweeted fifty. Thousand is a nice round number. That means absolutely nothing. Technically trying to sound smart just sound smart helps to define dumbness now. Let's contextualized. Peter is speaking to a trading audience and that trader audience are not supposed to in their own estimation get emotionally invested in an asset or let narrative shape. What they do. So let's give peter the benefit of the doubt and assume that that's who he's talking to however if he is truly arguing that technicals are all that matter about an asset. The easy rejoinder is that markets are by their very definition a constant give and take between narratives and technicals and frankly narratives tend to reshape the bounds that frame the upside and downside potential of those technical indicators either way for the sake of completeness i wanted to include something sort of negative but i think we can move on next. Let's discuss michael sailor. Just doing michael sailor things about five minutes before fifty thousand was breached. Sailor dropped a new press release from micro strategy long story. Short micro strategy is offering another six hundred million in debt and all the words of the press. Release our legalese. Except for this. Little line micro strategy intends to use the net proceeds from the sale of the notes to acquire additional bitcoins. Pomp summed it up perfectly when he tweeted. Michael sailor is carrying out one of the highest conviction investment thesis we've ever seen in public markets. Incredible to watch okay next. People are wondering how this happened. Or why will. I think the wise a little obvious. We saw an insane amount of positive news last week. Tesla b. and y. Mellon mastercard twitter. Deutsche bank morgan stanley. Every show for the last week has been about some type of crazy positive news. If you've been listening it's hard for that amount of positive news to not have an impact in other words. The specifics of win this fifty thousand dollar price was going to happen. Are for those technicals. That i was mentioning above to figure out but the overall momentum has clearly been in this direction. This actually gets me to another point. I was trying to articulate on twitter. We have this linear time bias. That when things happen quickly we tend to feel like that the thing that was before the you're comfortable with was the correct thing versus the new thing and the new change. That happened really fast. In other words. Bitcoin was between ten thousand. And fifteen thousand for a really long time so fifty thousand seems overvalued but what if instead based on what we now know. Bitcoin was in fact radically undervalued for that. Same ferry long time.
Leadership and Loyalty
Jono Bacon On Creating People Powered Communities
"Maybe you are old enough to remember When teens hung out and so do the older generation who got their exercise their at the mall. Well as you are no doubt weh malls were dying long before the twenty twenty pandemic. Today they are on the last belabored breath. Do you care well unless you're big box store. Probably not but there was something about malls that went beyond shopping and that was community. People met in the food courts. People went for their excited. They were older. You know there was a place to hang out. There was a community that we gathered. the mo- community was very good for business but as malls disappear. How can we build communities that grow all businesses. Well that's exactly what we're going. See my guest on. Today's show john bacon. He is the also of an award. Winning book called powered. How communities can supercharge your business your brand and teams as well as four other books. John bacon is the leading community and collaborative speaker also and podcast. He is a columnist for forbes and open source dot com founder of the community leadership summit found of conversations with bacon and found of bad voltage. He is an advisor to alien vault. Molten data dot world microsoft open networking foundation and open cloud consortium. He works as a consultant with clients from setups like hacker joana manta most digital assets and others and major organizations like ink santander deutsche bank intel microsoft and a couple others so waiters and gentlemen. Please put your hands together. The is the most incredible intro. Think i've ever experienced on a podcast. Thank you very much to. I know we don't we scrub well. Welcome this is not nice w fit on the way to be lovely. Some of your listeners have no idea what wait so i guess on my show a long time ago in roland in is now but he he's an englishman to and he's also also from from yorkshire and we both work at human hacking conference together last year and they the the person who runs that conferences owns the conference was so an analyst accents that we could play. He wanted us to do ten minutes on stage. Just talking lancashire and yorkshire and that's what we did. Is this english. it's been a lot easier recently. I think when when when. I'd say i'm from i was born in yorkshire to say what does the accident. Now i can say. Game of thrones. Watch game of thrones and that's basically a northern accent that's true yes yeah popular virtue. Although both of us have gotten a little bit of a best is asian to away for a long time. Yeah exactly so general. One of the places. I'd like to start. The show is by asking. You know in this world of influences where. Everybody's an expert influence just look on instagram. Or if you don't know who is someone we might not know a might not even consider has been a major influence on you and on your leadership. Wow there's there's a few I mean one person that really kind of switched on a liable for me is Rory sutherland whose ogilvy Some years ago. I was not being. I've been working and building communities for awhile. One of things. I find fascinating about. This is the it's understanding. The the real deep motivations of why people make decisions why people collaborate together which obviously you spend a lot of time working on and i learned about behavioral economics. Through rory seventy didn't amazing tedtalk called confessions of an odd man and that really sent me down this rabbit hole of what is the role of psychology and how we come together as people and driving forces behind it. So he's definitely one person but you know as well i mean. Obviously seth godin is fairly well known but i the thing i like about seth. Godin isn't much. His teachings is more of his approach. His this fundamental focus on service that if you're of service to other people then good things will happen to you when you wave through everything that you do. I think great things happen
860AM The Answer
"deutsche bank" Discussed on 860AM The Answer
"On very, very bad for our country, and that's leading others to do the same thing, and it causes a lot of problems that a lot of danger. Big mistake. They shouldn't be doing it. But there's always the counter move when they do that. I've never seen such anger as I see right now, and that's a terrible thing. He's right. That was the president at Andrews Air Force Base at I'm calling joint. Okay, let's just be old school, Andrews Air Force Base the president before he left for the border wall. He's on his way to visit the more than 450 miles of border wall his administration has built He's right. There's always a backlash and it's going to be big. It's going to grow. Why this is from Reuters. Trump dropped by biggest lender Deutsche Bank for future business. Deutsche Bank will not do business in the future with U. S President Donald Trump or his companies. In the wake of the assault on the U. S. Capitol. Deutsche Bank is the Trump Organization's biggest lender, with over 300 over $340 million worth of loans to the organization. No, you're not going to achieve. What you wish to retrieve. Let me just assure you of that and stunningly Deutsche Deutsche Bank where? Where is that? Ah yes, Germany. Chancellor angle Americal. The French government than even The head of state of Mexico Open door have all said the president's being banned by Twitter. Is wrong. Now. That's Big deal because there's no love lost between Angola, the French administration and even the Mexican government, But they know that if they could do it to the president, they could do it. Tomo anybody? I just love it. It warms my heart when I don't even have to mention the phone number on the coal board is absolutely full. In case you didn't know a 3333 gold cause it's 8333346752. Let's go to Long Beach, California, Ted Line three. Welcome to America first. Said about that there's an issue that I think it's I think it's under appreciated. It's very serious. Was a guest on Martha MacCallum the other night, and it was a Trump voter Trump supporter who had resigned himself to believing that sin Trump administration's legal teams. Have lost in all the courts that maybe it's time to move on. Have realized of all the Jake Tapper's most famous lies. He loves to keep repeating that Trump's legal teams have lost in 62 courts across United States, right? And I've asked him on Twitter many, many, many times. Can you name the court that actually agreed to hear evidence? Here. Eyewitness testimony see the analytical data from the data firms that do business with three letter agencies in the United States government they've been on TV they presented to state legislatures. Seems the unfolded so called mailed in ballots seen any of the evidence weighed the evidence. Listen to rebuttal witnesses, then rendered a decision based on the evidence. Can you name the course you tweeted this? It's Jake Tapper. All all day long. I'm on by the way, I'm Eagle Eye News Network on Twitter. So I follow you. There is not a single court in this land that they were in. They got to the door and had their petitions rejected. And what's dangerous is there are a lot of trump voters out there who resigning themselves the fact with a shrug. Well, yeah, you know, the courts looked at it and, you know, maybe, you know, maybe there is no evidence It never happened. If it did, it would have been a media event. Yes, it would have been two or three day process. They have been waiting for the decision. They would've been talking about the witnesses. There's a lie being perpetuated that is nullifying and snuffing out. Real factual opinion about whether or not there was even evidence in the first place, and it's the same game that they're playing with every other lie with Russia, collusion and evidence for impeachment. That's on and so forth. This is exactly the point that many Giuliani made to me. Two weeks ago less than two weeks ago, he said, even if I were a liberal judge, Out of human curiosity. I want to hear the evidence. But you're right. If there had been if there actually Assed. Jake Tapper's search had bean 60 court cases where the evidence had been heard, and the witnesses had been sworn in. It would have been on every muse Channel if they actually bean deemed to have no case. But there's not one clip. Why is that amazing? Called Ted? Stay on.
News, Traffic and Weather
Deutsche Bank to pay $130 million to avoid bribery charge
"Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay fines and penalties of about $130 million to avoid a criminal prosecution on charges it participated in the foreign bribery scheme involving Saudi Arabia. Lawyers for the bank waved its right to face an indictment on conspiracy charges Friday during a teleconference in New York City. Deutsche Bank said it had cooperated with federal authorities.
News, Traffic and Weather
Deutsche Bank to pay $130 million to avoid bribery charge
"And penalties of about $130 million to avoid a criminal prosecution on charges it participated in the foreign bribery scheme involving Saudi Arabia. Lawyers for the bank waved its right to face an indictment on conspiracy charges Friday. During a teleconference in New York City. Deutsche Bank said it had cooperated with federal authorities. We check your money at 20 and
Bloomberg Businessweek
Deutsche Bank to pay $130 million to avoid bribery charge
"Deutsche Bank will reportedly pay upwards of $100 million to resolve criminal bribery charges. James Flip and reports prosecutors in Brooklyn Federal court accused the German lender of participating in a foreign bribery scheme by attempting to win business in places like China. Officials say the company has agreed to a deal to avoid criminal prosecution so long as it doesn't engage in the tactic again for three years. As part of the arrangement, the bank will not be required to plead guilty to the
Yahoo Finance Daily
2021 Stock Market Trends Will Be Widely Dependent on COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution
"Traders are heading into the new year with a vaccine rollout underway and more stimulus recently passed offering hopes of a stronger recovery. Once inoculations allowed the restrictions that have swept the country for months to ease still hurdles exists to the outlook and one of the biggest deciding factors in economic growth and rebound in profitability for many corporations will be the success of vaccine distribution as covid. Nineteen cases continued to spike. Many strategists. have said the big question for the global economy over the years ahead will be. How quickly populations are vaccinated particularly among vulnerable groups like the elderly and those with underlying health conditions who make up the majority of hospitalizations deutsche bank economists including henry allen wrote in a note if the most affected groups can be vaccinated quickly that could pave the way for a gradual easing restrictions and a return to something closer to normality to be closely watching any issues with covid nineteen or the vaccine rolled out not least given the new variants that have been found in the uk and south africa. Which more rapidly and have been found in increasing numbers of countries. They added as of monday morning. The first doses of a covid nineteen vaccine had been given to more than four point. Five million people in the us comprising over one percent of the nation's population. However dr anthony fauci director of the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases said president elect joe biden's goal of ramping up distribution to vaccinate one hundred million people in his first one hundred days was a realistic goal. According to an interview with abc on sunday
Biz Talk Radio
"deutsche bank" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"Everybody's had to work from home. Some right. That's the new trend, right? Some people are going to continue working from home forever because companies like Well, I can have my sales people work from home and I'm gonna have to have an office. I could save all kinds of money. Millions of dollars. I mean, maybe maybe show a lot of in some cases they are, but this is really sped up the process that was coming anyway. I read an article that is sped this up by about eight years. Faster than it would have if we were just in regular 2020, and none of this craziness that happened. So if you occasionally work from home, you're probably not gonna like this next story economist at Germany's Deutsche Bank. Says government should impose a 5% per day tax on people who voluntarily work out of their house. Their argument is that you're contributing less to society, but you still enjoy all the benefits, whatever that means. CNBC contributor. Guy Adami disagrees. And so do I. Here's what he said. Maybe Deutsche Bank should take into consideration the lack of traffic on our roads and the lack of stress that's going to put on our infrastructure. Maybe I should get a rebate because I'm not going in and out of the Lincoln Tunnel every day. Or maybe Deutsche Bank should just focus on Deutsche Bank s. So I'm not sure I understand the bank's argument, but this is a good reminder that you never know. What next crazy tax might come up or where it might come from Brian, What do you do in this situation? You got to be prepared somehow. Yeah, you run for another country. I think that's why I never Uh huh. Yeah, that's one strategy. Thankfully, we don't live in Germany. So we're good there, right? So we've mean that's the funny thing we got. People that are are storming the streets and saying how awful The police are, And you know all this and change this and so will you don't like it? You know, there is the door. You can let the door hit you were, you know, we're gonna frown on you. Not everyone. There will be many people that frown on you for saying that very thing, And that's fun, You know, but that's the thing And it's like, okay, so I don't like the way that we're doing this that we're doing. On that, Okay, It's what the country is founded on. This is the way it's been for over 200 years were supposed to change that because of what and so I guess that's the issue. I With this. It's like this is ridiculous. One charge of 5% taxes for the privilege of or Gail, right. There is no reasoning for any of this, but most taxes, they're not. I mean, how did our country survive without all the taxes that we had? I mean, 100 years ago, we didn't have all the departments of taxation that we do today. Somehow we survive some. But we didn't have all these programs to fund either. Right now. We got a program for a program for a program. This department's I'm on top of departments, and that's where we really need to be cutting that increasing taxes. We need to cut I need to cut when we don't have the money. It's just like a business businesses can't continue to spend money. They don't have They just don't they go Hey, times are tough like Delta and American Airlines. Look at the hospitality industry. Are they spending more money right now? No, they're not. They're not increasing their prices. That's what the taxation is right there. Not saying Oh, we're going to charge more because people aren't staying in our hotels. No, they're cutting expenses. They're selling assets. They're doing the right thing. That's what the government should be doing is going insane. Let's cut 25% of this program that we really don't need. It's great to have it in the good years. But this isn't a good year. We're spending way more money just for health care. And a lot of services because of covert 19 restrictions remain need. I know hate to say it. We may need to cut a little bit. My goodness, tighten up the belt straps. I mean, like real people would do. That's crazy. And it doesn't matter if you're Democrat, Republican independent libertarian politics. Yeah, and maybe maybe somebody it's across the ball aboard. I mean everything. Unfortunately, I mean, I think that's why I have like politicians that have come in and said Let's not just cut on one side, not just warfare and welfare. Let's go across the board we have to do we have to be fair and do it all the way across and and get rid of the things that are not completely necessary that maybe we didn't have 30 years ago. You know, some of these departments didn't exist, and somehow the government continue to function. Yeah, I I'm on the side of those people. Whoever is ready to cut and cut and cut and make the government work bare bones. That's the way I liked it just to see it. That's that's who. Promised those guys don't get elected. No course. Yeah, right. Yeah. Lindsay, get elected that say they're going to spend to oblivion and give everything to everybody for everything free. It's free. Your college is free. You don't have to work. You can sit at home and collect checks for free. It's wonderful. Everything's free. And you're gonna make all this money by doing nothing and that that's a productive society something. Yeah, No, that's it. That is a huge problem. If you come in and shake it up too much, though you get voted out of office. Right? Exactly right. If you actually start cutting that you've got a two year, four year term limit, you're done right? And so somebody else would come in and spend for you. So by look, I mean, when you talk about taxes, that's that's what I really want to talk about this article. His taxes are going up everywhere across the world. If you look in, you know, Europe and you look at you know some of the countries that have come before us on the debt program That's they've had in these new politicians come their taxes and people are they fight about at the beginning, and then they're okay with it. You know, just because they're you don't feel like there's anything you can do. There's nothing you can do so okay. So now I'm paying 50% tax. We've got clients have talked about it with you before. You live in the UK and they're Americans. Other tax rate over there is 50 plus percent. They're not making, you know, half a million dollars a year if they were here in us equivalent dollars they'd be making about 150 grand. Jeez, Louise. I mean, it's not couple that worked professionally, right? So they're making maybe 75. It might be 200 to go back and look at the tax return. But The ideas. They're not, You know, super high income earners like doctors or making 300 grand a year and they're paying 50% tax. Yeah. Do you understand the impact on someone's retirement if they're taking out 100 grand a year And we thought they were only going to have to pay 20% in tax. Yeah, that's her now, then. That's E mean. Well, that's like that's life changing differences. That's exactly what you're trying to avoid. By saving Right? It's like, OK, Yeah, we're gonna We're gonna net you 80 0 now because tax rate change. We're gonna get you 50. There's your lifestyle going to change a little bit $30,000 a year income and the money and we'll be less and less and less every year. Because of inflation on the money's gone and it's not able to grow inflation. Another thing. I'm just saying the money's not there to grow If you pay if you sent it to tax, you know, it is frightening. Look, let us work. We're not saying that tax is gonna be 50 50% the United States. We hope but hope not. But what we are saying is they're going up. And everybody I think with a fair mind would agree with that. If you want to avoid some taxes, pay less in taxes. This is the way to do it with a retirement blueprint. It usually calls between about 1999 and 39 99. Somewhere in there between two and four grand, basically. If you're just come off the street. We're making them complimentary three of them on the show today. If you say $500,000 or more for retirement, it will be complimentary. You will not pay that fee. 866 to plan for 866 t o p L A N and.
The Mason Minute
Work From Home Tax (MM #3526)
"The with kevin mason. Have you heard about some of the people in the finance industry suggesting that the us adopt a work from home tax here in the future to help get us back on our economic feet. I don't folks from deutsche bank or talking about it and some other investment people saying that basically anybody who ops to work from home should have to pay a five percent tax on their income because they're not contributing to the economy like they were. They're not buying as much gas. They're not buying as much food at restaurants and they're not out in about contributing to the economy. Of course what they don't take into account like with my wife working at home. Our water bill has gone up by ten dollars a month because she's here using our water all day. Our electrical bills have gone up because more computer powers more equipment on. She's cooking her lunch from home now so again. Our costs are going up and of course we're not eating out in restaurants as much but we're spending more at the grocery store. I appreciate investors and bankers wall street trying to fix our economy for us but we think they need to care the little guy a little bit. More five percent work from home tax for some people
The Mason Minute
Work From Home Tax (MM #3526)
"The with kevin mason. Have you heard about some of the people in the finance industry suggesting that the us adopt a work from home tax here in the future to help get us back on our economic feet. I don't folks from deutsche bank or talking about it and some other investment people saying that basically anybody who ops to work from home should have to pay a five percent tax on their income because they're not contributing to the economy like they were. They're not buying as much gas. They're not buying as much food at restaurants and they're not out in about contributing to the economy. Of course what they don't take into account like with my wife working at home. Our water bill has gone up by ten dollars a month because she's here using our water all day. Our electrical bills have gone up because more computer powers more equipment on. She's cooking her lunch from home now so again. Our costs are going up and of course we're not eating out in restaurants as much but we're spending more at the grocery store. I appreciate investors and bankers wall street trying to fix our economy for us but we think they need to care the little guy a little bit. More five percent work from home tax for some people