19 Burst results for "Dennis Gartman"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Says the fed appears on course to keep interest rates elevated after another strong monthly jobs report, we're speaking with Dennis gartman now as we get this new week started, Dennis, of course, the chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee and the former publisher of the gartman letter. Dennis, good morning, what's the biggest market risk you see right now? I think the biggest risk is the fact that people, including yourself called the employment number on Friday, a strong number, let's be honest, it really wasn't that strong. There are visions where a 140,000 down for the previous month. And actually, almost all, in fact, all of the increase was predicated upon the birth death adjustment number, which was plus 380,000. It's the largest number of the year. We'll probably start to see some lesser numbers on the birth death adjustment. So I think that the non farm payrolls number was actually almost clearly almost negative if you take out the birth death adjustment phenomenon. So let's be honest, it was not that strong a number. And I was quite surprised by the response by the stock market with the Dow gaining what, 500 points during the course of the day. That caught me rather off guard. I'm somewhat bearish of stocks marginally. So in my own account, I'm short about 7%. We've got a large cash position, a large position in the two year note and a somewhat larger position in gold. So I'm short a little bit of stocks, long, a little bit of gold, but basically predicated upon the uncertainty regarding the economy. My biggest position is in the two year note and I'm comfortable sitting right there, essentially on the sidelines. All right, so you have been pretty bearish on this market for quite some time. Are you raising your forecast for a recession coming out of the data that we've seen? I think that when the data is actually revised, I think given the fact that we've revised downward the non farm payrolls number by a 140,000, which is a big number. I think we may well be already in recession. It depends on which industry you're in. If you're in the if you're in the commercial real estate, there's no question you're in recession. If you're in retail business, you're probably worried about being in recession. And if you're in some if you're in travel, you're wondering, well, how can it be any better than what we've got? So it depends upon which industry you're in. But I think on balance, when the NBR sits down in several months and looks back and says, the recession began probably in the first quarter of this year. Now you've also said that you believe that the fed is going to keep interest rates higher for quite a bit longer than the market is expecting. If we are starting to get the data showing the possibility of a recession sooner than expected, could that cause the fed to bring rates down sooner than expected? The fed will be slow and responding to be quite honest. But that is always slow. They're always late to the adjustment either to tighten out the ease. I've maintained that the federal be holding interest rates higher for a longer period of time listening to what mister Powell has said and basically reverberating our reiterating what he has always what he has commented upon. I think the odds of the fed pivoting and reducing interest rates by the end of the year are negligible, borderline zero. I think it will be early in 2024 before the fed considers the possibility of lowering the overnight Ted funds rate. So it's a long ways into the future. I also heard you say that you're comfortable staying in two year treasuries. Where do you see treasury yields going in this environment? Probably not much direction either way. We haven't gone far either way in the course of the past several months. And I think we're going to sit essentially where we are right now. So holding short term interest rates with short term positions either in short term T bills or two year notes is probably the place to be for the next 12 to 18 months. I don't think there will be much movement in interest rates either direction higher or lower from here. In our last minute here, Dennis, we've seen a rally at least in the last couple of days in regional bank stocks. What's your outlook for the regionals and the impact that they could have on the broader stock market? I think we probably had too much bearishness in the regional bank stocks. If there's one area in the economy where you want to be a buyer buying the regionals, especially in the southeast here in the United States, I think that's a very good place to go hide for a while. If you must hold equities holding them in regional bank stocks that have I think been decimated and unduly so over the course of the past month and a half or so. So that's one of the few areas that I can actually put together a bullish bullish posture. Thanks for this Dennis, as always, Dennis gartman with us this morning, the chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee, and the former publisher of the gartman letter. Certainly seeing regional stocks, the bank stocks with signs of life this morning PAC west shares are now higher by almost higher by 32% this morning. And western alliance following the big surge on Friday, adding to its gains as well, western alliances hired by almost 8%. The broader market is not doing a whole heck of a lot actually. S&P futures are up 5 points right now. Dow future is up 61. NASDAQ futures down. Well, little change now. Ten year treasury is down 5 30 seconds starting to see some selling in the treasury
Bloomberg Daybreak
Fresh update on "dennis gartman" discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak
"Oil is down four tenths of a percent or 33 cents at $73 .74 a barrel COMEX gold on a tenth of a percent or $2 .40 at 2087 .40 an ounce the euro 1 .0668 against the dollar the yen 146 and Bitcoin at $41 ,900 that's a Bloomberg Business Flash now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world Michael good morning good morning Karen Israel's military is expanding its operations across the Gaza Strip with the expectation of the ground invasion of southern Gaza looming many of the territories 2 .2 million residents will have to evacuate again the US military says three commercial ships in the Red Sea were struck by ballistic missiles fired from a Houthi controlled Yemen a US warship shot down three drones in self -defense during the assault in the NFL the Patriots Jets and commanders lost the 49ers won Michigan Washington Texas and Alabama are in the college football playoff Florida State is not and is the first unbeaten power five conference champion to be excluded from the four -team field in its ten -year history in ocular Rangers ruins and one global news 24 hours a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News now I'm Mike Lamar this is poor Knowles fans thank you Michael it is 542 on Wall Street you're listening to Bloomberg Daybreak I'm Nathan Hager alongside Karen Moscow gave us a nice roundup of where this market stands as into we head a data -heavy week let's get more market insights now we're joined by Dennis Gartman the chairman of the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee the former publisher of the Gartman letter so Dennis we're seeing a little bit of a breather for the everything rally but Karen mentioned that gold did hit a record overnight and we're seeing Bitcoin trading at a year high I can imagine you have mixed feelings about these benchmarks I have mixed feelings about the benchmarks but the thing one that I do find fascinating is that gold is at a $75 range overnight normally gold has a five to six dollar range suddenly we opened up fifty to sixty dollars higher we're now basically unchanged at the volatility of that market is astonishing to me the i've never been a of fan Bitcoin I probably never shall be a fan of Bitcoin I never understood Bitcoin it seems to me just a an imaginary circumstance but uh... the younger generation seems to find uh... have an affinity towards Bitcoin the generation younger is pushing Bitcoin to above forty one thousand dollars it's still down to what thirty or forty percent from its all -time high but uh... take a look at the chart and one would say if one wasn't as uh... unamenable to Bitcoin as I am one would say I'd buy that thing well let's talk about gold because it is interesting to see this kind of volatility in the market for bullying right now uh... do you expect that to continue based on what we're hearing from Fed the this kind of uh... interesting messaging we're hearing from Chairman Powell about whether we're in restrictive territory but at the same time maybe rates could go up again I still think that he wants to keep rates at the level that we are right now I've said for a long period of time it's not higher for longer and I think he's in that same stream of thought that he'll keep rates uh... I think he keeps the overnight Fed Fed funds rate trading at five and a quarter for a long period of time probably at least into half of 1924 maybe into early 2025 we'll see I've been very consistent with that for the past six months but his his comments on Friday were taken as if the Fed were going to ease rather quickly and I just don't think that's the likely circumstance golden and bitcoin are up on that news or that belief time shall tell but I have a my belief is that he's going to hold the overnight Fed funds rate steady for a rather protracted period of time I don't think there's any easing and in his opinion for quite some period of time going forward so what does that mean for some of these haven assets that I guess we can call bitcoin something of a haven asset depending on how you look at it but what does that mean if we do see rates stay high for longer does that mean gold has a higher path going forward the problem for gold is that rates have been high and higher rates compete with gold as a haven asset I'm actually quite by the fact that gold is holding as well as it has if you take a look at a gold chart over the course of the past several years we're breaking out to the upside from a triple top I hate to become too technically oriented but triple tops tend to be through broken to the upside and gold seems to want to be able to do that despite the fact that interest rates of the short end of the yield are curve being held relatively high so I'm relatively impressed we shall see this is a very strange day when you have a seventy five dollar range in gold as I said earlier on normally you have a five to ten dollar range in high to low for the day seventy five dollars is a bit peculiar I'm a little amused and amazed that we opened as high as we did and have given back most of those gains but high interest rates it's tend to keep the pressure on gold and I'm impressed by the fact that gold is holding up well despite the fact the overnight fed rate funds is holding at five and a quarter percent so what do you think is going to happen when we get some of this data that's coming out this week where you've got a lot when it comes to the job market in particular a lot of focus on whether it's going to take cracks in the job market to get the fed to ease what's off your view there I think we had in order for the fed to become easier have to have a very bad weekly or monthly jobless number and I just don't see that happening driving this past weekend that the roads were completely filled all the way over the east coast of the United States restaurants are busy golf courses are busy the employment numbers I think are going to be quite strong so I think it'll take a long period of time before the fed sees numbers of the employment area that would allow it to ease monetary policy again so I'll just simply say it's high for longer not higher for longer. So do you think the US economy can withstand high for longer rates or is there a greater risk of a hard landing if rates continue to stay as elevated as they are? One area of the economy that cannot stand higher rates is the commercial real estate. The role of the changing of interest rates over the course of the past two or three years from call it zero to five percent has put real pressure on commercial real estate in the market and if you're in that business it's going to be a tough year ahead of you, a tough two years ahead of you. But as far as consumer demand is concerned, retail sales seem to be rather robust. I'm actually quite surprised that by but if you're in a commercial real estate it's a bad period of time. If you're in retail it's been a pretty good period of time and those trends are probably going to continue. So in our last 30 seconds, Dennis, what are you going to be looking for in the weeks ahead when it comes to risk assets particularly? I think gold wants to go higher. That's the one thing I'm really convinced about. I think gold wants to go higher. I think grain prices want to trade at new lows. The weather conditions have been really quite good. We've grown a large corn crop. We're that's a price going to remain under pressure. And crude oil I think continues to to be weak. The term structure continues to be bearish and crude and rallies continue to be sold. So those are my ideas. Okay. Dennis Gartman, former publisher of the Gartman Letter, now chairing the University of Akron Endowment Investment Committee. Dennis, thank you as always for your insights at the start of this week. Karen. Thanks, Nathan. It's time now for the Bloomberg ATF report. A new research is making the claim that the flood of index -chasing cash on Wall Street is distorting stock prices and causing extreme market moves, with assets in such exchange traded funds now above $7 .1
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Mars. You just got rolled in national news. All right, thank you, Paul, President Biden plans to ask Congress to strengthen regulations of the banking system, as he's trying to reassure the public about the state of the U.S. economy after the collapse of the two banks, the president says they had regulations in place. Unfortunately, the last administration rolled back some of these requirements. I'm going to ask Congress and the banking regulators to strengthen the rules for banks to make it less likely this kind of bank failure would happen again. The president is seeking to reassure the public about the state of the U.S. financial system after the collapse of Silicon Valley bank and signature bank raising fears of a full blown banking crisis. Treasury secretary Janet Yellen says, there will be no government bailout for SVB. We're certainly not looking and the reforms that have been put in place means that we're not going to do that again, but we are concerned about depositors and are focused on trying to meet their needs. Treasury secretary, Janet Yellen, making those comments on face the nation from CBS, heard Sundays here on Bloomberg radio. Meanwhile, Dennis gartman, the chairman of the university of Akron endowment fund and former publisher of the gartman letter tells Bloomberg daybreak that this really completely changes the look for the fed. But the fed was moving towards tightening monetary policy, something that I thought was going to last for quite a long period of time. And they apparently have given up on that. The yield curve has moved violently overnight, short rates are down dramatically. Dennis gartman is chairman of the university of Akron endowment fund, former publisher of the gartman letter on Bloomberg daybreak. Shifting gears now everything everywhere. All at once is the big winner of the 95th Academy Awards. I filmed took home best picture, including best director and best original screenplay, broke a few records. Now, out of its 11 nominations, the movie won 7 Michelle yeo winning best actress, Brendan Fraser, won best actor for his performance in the whale. Global news 24 hours a day on Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Check on the Alison Williams senior banks analyst at Bloomberg intelligence to get a little bit of a preview of what we might see tomorrow from our good friends at Goldman Sachs. Let's kick this half hour off with John Tucker with a Bloomberg business restaurant. All right, Paul Matt farm launches last week, stocks are higher all. 11 major industry groups on the S&P 500 in the green right now, consumer discretionary stocks during the lead, you had orders for durable goods falling, that was the steepest decline since April of 2020 got as big as this morning. But when you strip out transportation equipment, the orders rose more than expected. The Economist Dennis gartman tells Bloomberg, the fed right path ahead clearly higher for longer. They're probably going to take the overnight fed funds rate to at least 5 and a half percent. There's been some talk that they may go higher. I have my doubts to that. Whether that is true or not. But once they get to 5 to 5 and a half percent, they'll keep the overnight fed funds rate at that level for a very long period of time. And right now the S&P 500 twenty eight points higher up 7 tenths of a percent just a hair's breath away from 4000 3998 Dow Jones Industrial Average up to 182 points, that's up 6 tenths of a percent NASDAQ 100, 109 points higher. That's up 9 tenths of a percent. Yields are lower two year down two basis points four, 79, ten year two basis points lower three 91, maybe one of the more surprising things today is just the volume. It's anemic. S&P 500 volume right now, 17% below the average this time of day, the 30 day average. We check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radeon John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg business flash mountain ball. All right, John Tucker. It is crazy here
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Percent or 56 points in the ten year treasury up three 30 seconds CL 3.52%, Nathan. Karen, the Federal Reserve kicks off its first policy meeting of 2023 today, and that has investors trading cautiously. Yesterday was the worst for the NASDAQ 100 index in 5 weeks, while the S&P 500 fell the most in nearly two weeks. Dennis gartman, chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee, says the fed may be more aggressive than investors think. Right now the consensus is that the fed is going to raise the overnight head funds rate by 25 basis points. I have a sneaky suspicion that will probably go by 50, but time shall tell. But we have had a strong rally since October of last year. We found some support for the S&P, we found some support for the NASDAQ, but the rally had probably exhausted itself. Dennis gartman, the former publisher of the gartman letter says he is backing away from a marginal long position in stocks overall. He's been bearish on the market since January of last year. But Nathan, there are signs of hope for the first time in a year the International Monetary Fund is racing its global economic growth outlook. We get the details live with Bloomberg Steve rappaport. Good morning, Steve. Good morning, Karen and Nathan, the IMF critics gross domestic product will expand 2.9% this year before rebounding to 3.1% in 2024, chief economist Pierre Olivier tells Bloomberg TV the numbers for global growth remain well below pre-pandemic levels. The worry is more with what we call core inflation that excludes energy and food prices are typically more volatile. And this core inflation measures have shown more persistent and they have not picked yet in many countries. And they are still far away from Central Bank targets. So the job is not done Russia says there are still some challenges to get on our way to sustainable recovery, live in New York. I'm Steve rapaport, Bloomberg daybreak. Thank you, Steve, turning to corporate earnings. Now we're getting the first results from European banks and shares of UBS are down three and a half percent. Well, the Swiss bank reported profit above estimates, revenues at the investment bank fell by 24% and compensation costs rose. UBS CEO Ralph hamers says, while things are looking up, clients remain cautious. We see positive news coming from China. We see positive news coming also inflation, we see some light life back in the average capital markets, which is normally a leading indicator. However, all early all early movements. So I don't think there was a trend there yet. So for the moment, I do think that our clients are hopeful, but in a wait and see pattern. UBS CEO Ralph hamers tells us the bank plans to buy back more than $5 billion of shares this year. Stay tuned for more of that interview coming up shortly on Bloomberg daybreak. Well, back here in the U.S., Nathan, we get earnings from 30 companies in the S&P 500 today, and that includes oil, behemoth, ExxonMobil. We get a preview from Bloomberg's Tom busby. After a record profit made in last summer's third quarter when prices at the gas pump at all time highs, the nation's biggest oil companies expected to see earnings fall by as much as 26% that's on lower oil and natural gas prices. Still full year profits expected to top 57 and a half billion blowing away the previous record set back in 2008. For the just finished quarter look for adjusted earnings per share of $3 30 cents on net income of $13.5 billion. I'm Tom busby, Bloomberg, daybreak. Thanks, Tom. Let's turn to the pandemic now and policy out of D.C., The White House will end a pair of COVID-19 emergency declarations in May. Amy Morris explains what it means from our Bloomberg 99 one newsroom in Washington. The COVID-19 national emergency and public health emergency will be extended to May 11th and then lifted. Millions of Americans have received free COVID tests, treatments, and vaccines, and not all of that will be free anymore. It will also mean the end of title 42, which allows border agents to expel migrants at ports of entry without the chance to ask for asylum, and the continuous enrollment provision of Medicaid will expire. The CDC says 500 people in the U.S. die each day from COVID-19. In Washington, I made Morris, Bloomberg daybreak. Right, Amy, thank you while U.S. China relations also in focus this morning, the Biden administration is stepping up its crackdown on the Chinese industrial sector. Bloomberg news has learned it's considering whether to cut off Huawei technologies from all of its American suppliers. That includes chip makers like Intel and Qualcomm, Huawei as long suspected of ties to the Beijing government and the Chinese military. Meantime Karen economic data out of China today point to more growth. China's manufacturing and
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Inflation to guide the rate path. We're going to touch on all this now with Dennis gartman, the chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee and the former publisher of the gartman letter. Dennis, we're seeing U.S. futures in the red this morning. Do you think the January rally has peaked? Time shall tell, I had been bearish of stocks basically since January of last year. And about four weeks ago, I started to turn quietly marginally modestly slightly bullish of equities, but I have to admit that today's action looks really quite horrific to be blunt and we may well have seen it to the peak. Everybody's looking forward to, I shouldn't say forward. Everybody's looking to the fed's decision this week. Right now the consensus is that the fed is going to raise the overnight fed funds rate by 25 basis points. I have a sneaky suspicion that will probably go by 50, but time shall tell. But we have had a strong rally since October of last year. We found some support for the S&P, we found some support for the NASDAQ, but the rally had probably exhausted itself. So in my own account, I'm marginally long about 10% net long and I'm probably going to start taking some safety against that this morning and put in some derivatives to hedge in my position. You said there's a possibility that the fed could go 50 basis points. What makes you think that? The language coming from mister Powell. He's been very consistent. We'll see. I was one of the first people to say that the federal is going to take towards 5%. I said that almost 14 months ago. And the fact that we raised 75 basis points was for the last three or four meetings. The odds of them going only 25, I think, are relatively slim. Time shall tell. We'll see that that is nowhere near done tightening monetary policy at this point. And we need to pay more attention to what they're doing to their balance sheet. It's still above $8 trillion. It needs to get down to 4.4 to 5 trillion over the course of the next year or two. And that's to me even more important than what they do with the overnight side funds rate. Is it more important for equity valuations? What makes it more important? The fact that the fed will be has been in shell continue to be taking liquidity out of the market for a protected period of time. They raise the over their balance sheet from what $900 billion to $9 trillion that took almost a decade to accomplish that task. It's going to take them a long period of time to resolve that to get that balance sheet back to four to $5 trillion instead, which would still be a top heavy balance sheet, but the fact that they're taking the liquidity that had sponsored the great bull market that we had two years ago, that liquidity is being taken away. That's the one caveat that you have to be concerned about if you're an overt bull. As I said, as I said, I marginally bullish have been for the past three or four weeks. But today's action does look deleterious, looks detrimental looks a little suspicious and I'm going to be taking some protection this morning. Dennis gartman, chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee, former publisher of the gartman letter. Thanks, Dennis for being with us this morning as we do watch futures move lower ahead of the open S&P futures are down 40 points now a drop of 1% Dow futures are down 246 at NASDAQ futures are lower by a 167 points. That's a drop of 1.4%. Up next, the top Wall Street strategist says sell the rally plus a fed decision and Washington dead talks both coming up Wednesday. That's all coming up in our 6 30 news. First
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Miller. I'm looking at just brutal losses in the fixed income markets, actually doing what they say, which is shocking to the markets. How concerned are you that this labor market may start to show some cracks? The most interesting corporate finance stories. Breaking market news and inside from Bloomberg experts. The worst of the pain, I think, is behind us. When they say materially, you know it's serious. Even Matt Miller is complaining about the price he's paying at the gas pump. Wouldn't you record this? Yeah, I think we do that on a daily basis. This is Bloomberg markets. With Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller on Bloomberg radio. Good Tuesday morning. It's a shortened week. A lot going on to talk about, we got bank earnings today. We got Davos, which continues, but just started for those of you who have not been paying attention on the weekend. And we have markets as well. Right now, the S&P 500 is gaining, but the Dow is falling. We'll sort that out. I want to get over to John Tucker first for a Bloomberg business flash JT. All right, let me bring you this ECB may opt for a 25 basis point hike in March after a 50 basis point move in February, so that's just breaking across the Bloomberg. As far as U.S. stocks, little changes say math, a 7 of the 11 major groups and the S&P 500 higher right now. Energy, the best performing sector, and the bank earnings they continue to roll in Goldman Sachs citing higher expenses in a plunge in deal making those shares as a result down about 3.9%. Economist Dennis gartman, who's been a stock bearer for the past year, starting to change his tune. I turned from being overtly
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"This is Bloomberg daybreak. Good morning, I'm Nathan Hager just two trading weeks left in 2022. Let's get you started on this one. We're joined now by Dennis gartman, the former publisher of the gartman letter, who now shares the university of Akron endowment investment committee. Dennis, good morning, looks like futures are trying to claw back some of the losses we've seen over the last couple of weeks. Now following a parade of hawkish policy and rhetoric from central banks around the world, does this relief rally have any legs for you? I think not Nathan, I think this is relief rally is probably run its course of action. I tend to take I look at technicals rather substantively over the course of my career. And one of the things I pay attention to is outside reversal days and more importantly outside reversal weeks, periods of time when you make a new higher a new low and then close higher or lower taking out the previous days of previous weeks range and we've done that in a weekly reversal in the S&P, we've done that in a weekly reversal in the Dow. We've done that in a weekly reversal now in the NASDAQ. So I think that last week we'll mark the highest protection period of time. I think the autumnal rally has run its course. And I think that the hawkish views manifest by the Federal Reserve bank manifested by the Bank of England manifested by the monetary authorities essentially around the world are going to have a deleterious impact upon equity prices going forward. So take a look at the fact that the S&P, for example, made of last January at 46,000 or 4600, the next high was 4400 the next high was 4300 and last week we got to 4200 each highest in progressively lower since the start of the year. Each has low has been progressively lower since the start of the year. And then we had an outsider reversal week last week. So given the fact that we've got monetary authorities earning upon the side of hawkishness and the technicals are now quite manifestly bearish. I think it's far better to err upon the side of being bearish and reducing one's exposure over the course of next several weeks. No, no, you've been calling this a bear market pretty much all year long since the beginning of the year as we head into 2023. How much longer do you expect this bear market to continue? The best one can do is get the trend right and I think the trend is down, getting both trend and time right is almost it's not almost, it's an impossible task. Let's simply say that the bear market has been has been excellent since the first week of January of this year. As I just said, each slow has been lower each high has been lower. And that trend will probably continue right this down until it stops. I think we'll take out the lows or made in October in the not too distant future and may take a month or two to do so. And the only benefit, the only bullish circumstance prevailing is the fact that we lose two of the most hawkish voting members of the FOMC in February, miss messer and this George from Cleveland and from Kansas City, and we replace them with a couple of dove voters in the FOMC, but that's not till February of next year in February is as far as I'm concerned is a lifetime away. Then do you expect that the commentary that we got last week from the fed chairman Jay Powell that rates will stay higher for longer is malleable? Is that something that the fed could shake away from depending on how things turn out in 23? Well, we'll see. If we get really ugly economic data points coming out in January and February, then the fed might change. But if I've learned anything at 45 years of being involved in the markets and watching the Federal Reserve bank act, it's that once the fed changes monetary policy when it moves from easing to tightening or from tightening to easing, it takes rates much farther and takes them for a much longer period of time than even the most radical among us wants to believe. So I think that the potential for the fed to change its policies given the dramatic use of language that we saw last week, you couldn't miss, you could not misunderstand what mister Powell was talking about. He made it abundantly clear that he has no intention of moving towards easier or pivoting on rates for a protracted period of time. So it's going to be at least until 2024 until we have any opportunity to see the fed change monetary policy back from being tightening to easing. Anybody who thinks that he's going to change is I think sadly long. Got about a minute left here in this segment, Dennis is the fed steering itself toward a policy mistake here with this kind of tightening. This had always makes mistakes. They are always, they tighten too far they use too far. They're probably going to tighten too far they'll probably tighten us into a recession. Will there be a recession of consequence aligned with or like that which we want to in 2007, 8 and 9 no, it will be something much more modest, but it will still drive the unemployment rate above 5% before it's done. So can the fed make mistake if it always makes mistakes. The fed is human, humans make mistakes. Want to get more on your outlook for recession and the markets going forward here into 2023. So we're going to continue this conversation with Dennis gartman into the minutes ahead here as Bloomberg daybreak continues. Dennis gartman is the former publisher of the gartman letter. Now chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee. Head of that conversation continuing futures are moving higher this morning, S&P futures on the rise by 16 points, Dow futures up a 112, NASDAQ futures are higher by 50 points, the ten year treasuries down 1130 seconds, yield 3.52% yield on the two year, 4.17%, nymex crude is moving higher by 9 tenths percent or 69 cents at $74, 98 cents a barrel this is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Active broker studio in New York City to our worldwide audience equity futures kind of mixed here today. Big news out of Mickey Mouse in Burbank, California. Bob Iger coming back to the CEO. We're going to talk to Keith the ranganathan about that. She covers all things media for Bloomberg intelligence. We're going to break it down there. And we will get the lay of the land for this week on Wall Street with shiny basic as well. But first let's go to John Tucker and get a Bloomberg business match down. Well into the cash market right now, where as you say, the stock indexes are mixed right now, the biggest drag on the S&P 500 the sworn coming from energy a Paul ConocoPhillips down 4%, Saudi Arabia, another OPEC countries reported to be discussing an output increase, so of course that's sending oil lower this morning. Goldman Sachs strategists say the bear market for stocks, that will continue a peak in interest rates and lower valuations reflecting recession they say are necessary before any sustained stock market recovery and economists Dennis gartman says the fed's going to stay on its current path of raising interest rates. I think we're going to continue to see inflationary pressures the abundance and I think the fed has to remain consistent with its policies of the past. So I think they raised the overnight fed funds rate 50 basis points at the December meeting and probably 25 to 50 basis points at this first meeting over after the turn of the year. And Bond land supply factors could be pushing the yield curve deeper into inversion right now the twos and tens negative 73 basis point difference there. And Paul most active and this is the stock also that's giving a lift to the Dow. Walt Disney up 7.9% right now, and some P 500 down 6 points NASDAQ, a 141 point slower, and again the Dow up 35 points. That's up about a tenth of a percent. We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the trade at right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker, that's your Bloomberg business flash mountain Paul. All right, John Tucker
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To kick off the trading week this morning with Dennis gartman, former publisher of the gartman letter. Now chair of the university of Akron endowment investment committee, Dennis, I want to get your take on the broader market, but first your reaction to a Disney surprise announcement that bob Iger's coming back. It wasn't surprised, but I guess we really shouldn't be all that surprised given the fact that while the former chairman was president CEO was chairman and president, watched the stock go from almost $200 a share down to $91 a share. I think the board of directors said, let's go back to somebody that had taken the stock up to almost $200 a share. So we shouldn't be too surprised by the fact. I remember one day in the green room, very impressed. And I think the market's impressed. The fact that this Disney is up a little, what 8% this morning is a little overdone. I suspect, but I think it's a good decision. I think it's the wise decision. I think it's a decision that's probably long overdue. All right, let's turn to the broader market here. Obviously, we're getting a leg lower this morning on concerns around the COVID situation in China. There had been a lot of bullishness around Chinese stocks in recent weeks from any institutional investors. What's your view on China now? My view on China has always been the area registered about being an investor in China. There are so many there's other places to be invested in here in the United States and Europe far better to be here and in Europe than it is in China. You just can't trust the communists at any one time. But the fact that they have had a few more deaths over the weekend due to COVID, I think is a little disconcerting and probably going to be another crackdown. So just be very careful. It's not a place that I'm going to invest my own money. It's not a place that I'll have the university of Akron invested. It's money. It's a place that I think people should be aware of, but to basically be a shun of avoided if at all possible. Does it have Dennis broader implications for the global economy to have this kind of retrenchment potentially coming back? Well, of course, it would be it would be illogical to think otherwise. Of course, it will. But we need to see China do better. We need to see China get stopped shutting down completely. We need to see China join the modern world and follow things that have gone here in the United States. So just again, just be careful. It's just a place that I would avoid if at all possible. I also want to get your reaction to a new note we got this morning from Goldman Sachs saying the bear market is likely to last into 2023. They're putting their target for the S&P pretty much where it is right now around 4000. I don't suppose you would disagree with that given how bearish you've been on this market pretty much all year, right? I will not disagree with them at all. I have been bearish since January 1st of last year of this year continue to be bearish, even though I've been wrong now for the past 5 weeks. So let's be blunt about that when I'm wrong I'm wrong and I am surprised by the strength that we've seen. But I think what we should understand is that the volume has come in on the downside. The volume seems to wane on the upside. Good bull markets go up on good volume and go down on bad volume and we're seeing the absolute opposite of that. So I think technically you have to be reticent about being a buyer, be very careful. And as I said, I've been very since January 1st of this year. That's been the right place to be. I've been wrong for the past 5 weeks however and let's be blunt about that. Are you changing your view at all about where the path could be for the fed going forward given the inflation data we've seen in recent weeks. And the continued strength of the labor market. No, I think that that has made its path abundantly clear when they meet in two weeks. There's no question they're going to raise the overnight fed funds rate by at least 50 basis points. I've said that for a long period of time and I continue to hold to that. Yes, there has been a moderation in inflation and no question that we've had a rather material amount of weakness in the energy market, which is which some of the set officials will point to. But on balance, we still have to remember the fact that the fed has increased its balance sheet over the course of the past decade taking its assets from $900 billion to $9 trillion. That's an inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon with the two to three year lag. So I think we're going to continue to see inflationary pressures the abundant and I think the fed has to remain consistent with its policies of the past. So I think they raised the overnight fed funds rate 50 basis points at the December meeting and probably 25 to 50 basis points if the first meeting over the after the turn of the year. So now I'm not changing my opinion on Ted policy at all. All right, Dennis gartman, as always, good to get your thoughts and I hope you have a Happy Thanksgiving coming up here. Dennis gartman, former publisher of the gartman letter now chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee. Focus this morning on COVID concerns in China and sending the broader market lower with S&P futures right now down 21 points down futures down 89 NASDAQ futures are lower by 85 points. Ten year treasuries down one 32nd the yield 3.83% yield on the two year 4.53% crudes moving lower this morning, nymex crew down a half percent at $79, 65 cents a barrel, and checking Disney shares in the pre market on word bob Iger's coming back. But they are higher by 8% this morning. You're listening to Bloomberg
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On Bloomberg radio, I'm John Tucker. That's your Bloomberg business flash mountain Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that a little bit of red on the screen here. Nothing much because we had two days of some pretty significant gains ever. Dennis gartman, Matt was on with Tom keen and I just unless this dude is super bearish, like through 2023. So he has, he's in cash. He's clipping his 4% to your treasury note coupons and he's happy as a clam. So dude, I mean, that might not be a great idea. Then rom from our M live team says that the two year is going to 5% and above. Wow, okay. So if gartman is holding those still though, it's money in the bank clip in a coupon. Big capital loss if that happens. Yeah, but you don't sell them. You hold them forever. Just like mini bonds you just hold them, they mature, your leg into. I feel like that's only two years, yes, that's possible. That's possible. I mean, in real terms, he's still losing money, right? Because you can't live in the real world. All right, critic Gupta Bloomberg markets correspondent joins us here on our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. There's a million ways to go. We've got some earnings with Netflix. We've got united. The united guy was on pretty with Tom baker Hughes. And he was saying, people now are like September planes are full because people are saying, you know what? I can go to Paris or I can go to Los Angeles for the weekend, but actually work Thursday and Friday and make it into a nice work leisure thing. They're seeing a lot of that demand. I will just say very quickly before I talk about this from a markets perspective, I had a friend who lives in San Francisco, worked for Goldman during the remote work policy. She worked for Hawaii. Nice. For like three months. It was good. That's the whole point. That's the new world order. And it worked, and they didn't mind because she was still putting in the hours and, you know, in her spare time. She's not saying September is usually a downtime. They're blocking like crazy. Well, you know what's interesting about this story here is that first off, let's talk about the market move here. United shares. UAL up about 6% in the market right now. And I think what's crucial about that conversation is for so long and this is kind of the Achilles heel for a lot of the airlines is that really hit them during COVID was that they have this kind of tradeoff. That if you were not flying enough business people, you weren't making your margins. You weren't making your bottom line. Delta came out very strongly and said, look, our entire forecast update is based on the idea that we think business travel is coming back. United comes out and says, well, their profit forecast get this is more than double the estimate. Doubling. Like this is why you're seeing a 6% pop in the shares. But what's interesting about what you kind of brought up with what the CEO said was that I wonder if that eats into their bottom line. If that means that fewer people then are going to be traveling for leisure and then traveling for business, perhaps it eats into the double charging there for lack of a better term. Yep. I don't know. Well, I think what's going to happen is what they're seeing is even leisure travelers are trading up to business because they're just, they want to travel, they'll pay any price and that's kind of where they're going. So the airline is a good space. Also, Netflix had some good numbers last night. They added subscribers a little bit more than this. Is this like a turning point for Netflix? Because that's what it is. Let's call it what the kids call it today, a pivot in the sense that they're now going to try to develop an advertising business, which they have zero. But what about those subscribers? Back in the day, they would add that in a week. But they're going to continue adding subscribers. It seems like from listening to Reed Hastings that for a while they were losing subscribers and something has now changed and from now on, they will be adding subscribers out into the future. Well, I think the expectation was they would continue to add subscribers, but they would be outside of the U.S. and subscribers outside the U.S., the arpu, the average revenue per user is lower outside of the U.S.. So yeah, we're adding subscribers about their less profitable, but that's okay. That's the story because in the first half of the year, the comparisons were so difficult during the pandemic period that they weren't adding any showing any growth. Now they're getting back to a modest growth in terms of. But if you look at the top line revenue growth, it's still 7, 8, 9% long gone or the 20% top line. Right, but that's classic of any major growth tech company, right? If you looked at Walmart in the 60s when it was just kind of really building out, then you would see the same thing. These massive jumps, same thing with Amazon quarter of a quarter to your point, though, about the pivot as the kids say, allegedly. I'll read Hastings did say on a webcast interview. Thank God we're done with shrinking quarters. So to your point, he says that, look, we are going to keep growing, but I don't think that growth is going to be too Paul's point. The driver of the bottom line anymore. I think that's where the advertising comes in. And they announced that they said that even with the ads, I think it's 6.99 with ads and that's going to start in November. I want to say. So it's happening pretty quickly. The question is that there are now going to be dealing with kind of ad supported revenue and it is going to help their bottom line. I have 45 seconds here and I want to very quickly squeeze in one more stock. I think is really important. Ally Financial. I ranted about this on surveillance this morning. This is one of the biggest auto lenders in the country. The stock is down 9.4% the pre market ALL wise, the ticker This comes after some pretty disappointing earnings. And to me, I think what really stood out was they actually talked about their forecast for recession. And I want to read out very quickly exactly what they said on their call. I want to say, and they said, they are posting higher auto finance provisions to quote ensure the company remains protected as recessionary conditions feel more likely to occur in the coming months. To hear the from. One of the biggest auto lenders in the country is enormous. I haven't heard credit quality concern issues from any of the other banks, specifically for loan loss provisions, but with this one, I think it's interesting feeds back into GM theory, right? If you're not buying a car if Americans aren't buying cars, the economy is not good. Right. Right. Americans are buying cars of buying these pickup trucks and EVs and all the just say to we value you, of course we know. We appreciate you. Thank you. Coming on this. I heard pretty yesterday talking with you and Carol. And she was Matt. Oh, yes. I was in a different tune. All right. Just messing with you because we're such
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Treasury up one 32nd Yale 2.87% that yield on the two year 2.85%. Nymex screwed oil is up 7 tenths percent or 72 cents at a $109, 13 cents a barrel. Comex gold is up a tenth of a percent or $2 and 1803 50 announce. The Euro 1.0313 against the dollar, the N one 35.72. The British found is at 1.2049, looking at Bitcoin, it's up 7 tenths percent at $19,900. That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barr with more on what's going on around the world. Michael good morning. Good morning, Karen police say a gunman on a rooftop opened fire on an Independence Day parade in suburban Chicago. Killing at least 6 people wounding at least 30 and sending hundreds of marchers, parents with strollers and children on bikes, fleeing in terror. Police and island parks say a person of interest 22 year old Robert Bobby cremo is now in custody in connection to the shooting. In Philadelphia two police officers were shot and wounded during 4th of July festivities, held near the city's Museum of Art. So far no arrests have been made. In baseball, the mets won, the Red Sox Orioles and a's also won. The nationals lost, along with the Giants. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and all Bloomberg quicktake. Powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts to more than a 120 countries. I'm Michael Barr and this is Bloomberg, John. Michael, thank you, it is 5 19 on Wall Street we are live for the Bloomberg international broker studios. This is Bloomberg daybreak. U.S. markets reopening this morning. After camping at 11 declines in the past 13 weeks, let's get you set up for the trading day, have this morning. I'm happy to say we're joined now by a Dennis gartman. The Economist, the university of Akron endowment cheer, former publisher, the Garmin letter. Dennis, I hope you had a great fourth, good Tuesday morning to you. Have we shifted from inflation fears now to recession fears for investors? I don't think there's any question about that. We are clearly shifting to recessionary concerns and while we should inflation seems to be abating, take a look at the green markets they've turned lower. Take a look at crude oil as it's trading a $109 a barrel instead of a $122 a barrel, take a look at the lumber it's down rather substantially. Take a look at livestock prices there down over time. Things seem to be changing and I pay a lot of attention to what happens in the grain markets more than perhaps most other people do because they are so international in scope, but the news had been because of the war in Ukraine. Everybody wanted to be bullish of the grain markets and they clearly topped out and gone to a lower concern. So I think recession is a far greater concern at this point. The fed has begun the process of quantitative tightening rather than quantitative easing. The fed clearly wants to raise the overnight set funds rate and other 75 to a 125 basis points, but far more important is what's going on in their quantitative tightening circumstance where they're going to have to be either selling or rolling off of $65 billion worth of the treasury securities on a monthly basis, that was the fuel that fueled the bull market in stocks. That was the fuel that fueled the bull market in the economy. And that is the fuel that's being taken away. So I think you have to be very careful as the chairman of the university of Akron endowment. I pushed the university to sell about 12 to 15% of its portfolio of equities out of its endowment at the end of the last year and I see no reason to change my opinion on that point. As I've always said in the bear market, he or she who loses the least will be the winner. And right now, that's the operative. That's the operative circumstance. He or she who loses the least will be the winner. Jumping in in any rally in the bear market is that fool's errand? Yes, I think it's a fool's errand. I think that you have to, instead of for a long period of time, while Tina was the answer, there was no alternative. Tina has now become she's moved to the sidelines. Now there is an alternative with higher interest rates are going to send money out of the stock market. I think, as I said, the fed is tightening monetary tightening monetary policy and so rallies in the equities are to be sold into weaknesses not to be bought. That may change in another three, four, 5, 6 months or so, the average duration of a bear market tends to be close to a year in duration. We started this on January 5th. We have another 5 or 6 months to go on the downside. How far much lower stocks grow as anybody's guess, but I think the trend is from the upper left to the lower right. Well, with slowing growth, I mean, does this alter the Federal Reserve's trajectory at all Over time, it's shell, no question about it. But they've told us they've made it abundantly clear that they intend to raise the overnight side funds rate at least 75 basis points of July meeting. They think reasonably clear that they intend to raise another 50 basis points at the meeting after that. They have to remain consistent and not back down from what they said in the past. So I think that the fed funds rate goes another 75 to maybe a 125 basis points from here. Then maybe later in the autumn, maybe later in the winter, the fed can change its policies. But right now the fed has made it abundantly clear that it intends to raise the overnight fed funds rate. And it really has to do so. Otherwise it loses credibility. Can you deliver probability of a recession if so, how long how deep? Well, I've always said for the last three months, I said the odds of a recession in 2022 or 60 to 70% as long as if the overnight fed funds rate moved to an inversion and if the spot rate of WTI got above a $109 a barrel were above clearly within about a $109 a barrel, we have not gone to an inversion yet. So I will continue to hold the fact that we've got a 60 to 70% probability of recession in 2022. I'll raise it 75 to 80% in 2023 because of the classical definition that a recession requires two consecutive declines in GDP for quarter over quarter. The second quarter GDP will probably be marginally higher. So given the fact that the first quarter GDP was negative, the second quarter GDP will probably modestly positive. So that means in order to justify the classical definition we have to wait till the second third or fourth quarter this year. And I think both those quarters will be negative GDP growth. Dennis always a pleasure. Thanks for being with us this morning. Dennis gartman, university of Akron and down with chairman, former publisher of the gartman letter. Ahead of the cash open on Wall Street, futures right now in the red, the down futures
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Daybreak as we get set for a short but busy trading week We're joined by Dennis gartman former publisher of the gartman letter now chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee Dennis good morning seems like we're seeing some jitters in the market with futures pointing lower and the ten year the benchmark flirting with the 2.75% handle That's the highest and more than three years What kind of ripple effect does that have on the market Well first of all we have the markets are under pressure and are going to remain under pressure I've been bearish with stocks since January 5th when these previous minutes of the FOMC meeting at the end of last year came out indicating higher rates were certainly a likelihood The fact that the minutes last week were as bearish as any I've seen mister Bill Dudley the former vice chairman of the fed and the former New York fed president was kind of overtly bearish of share prices saying that the fed has to be become far more hawkish on monetary policy and needs to in his term inflict pain on stock prices which was a stunning statement he's even more bearish than miss George and miss messer the president of the Cleveland and Kansas City feds even more bearish than mister bullard has been So it was a really quite the extraordinary to have that many members of the voting members of the FOMC become overtly bearish I'll share prices So I think that the bounce that we've seen has run its course it was a nice bounce It was a pleasant bounce it was a satisfactory balance for many but it was a bouncing nonetheless and that's all it has been And I think share prices are headed rather demonstrably lower over the course of next several months What kind of levels are you looking at for the S&P 500 then The best I can say I've been in this business for almost 45 years and trying to get the direction right is the best that one can do And I think the direction is down So let's just simply say we'll go past the normal threshold for the start of a bear market which is 20% I've always found that laughable to me anything that moves more than 7% is consequent So the fact that I think will be below 20% down before this is done from the highest made January 5th So the market I think is the best one can say as the market is moving from the upper left to the lower right and that's the best I want is able to ascertain You mentioned Cleveland fed president Loretta mester we did hear from her again yesterday on CBS's face the nation saying that she thinks that inflation could peak soon but will remain elevated perhaps into the end of next year at the same time she says she's confident that the U.S. can avoid a recession What's your view I think the U.S. well first of all I think she's correct on inflation There's no question in the inflationary problems are accident everywhere Food prices are going higher Energy prices had been higher They're coming off a bit at this point with crude oil tumbling down below $96 a barrel for nearby near term WTO WTI But livestock prices are higher cotton prices are higher sugar prices are higher commodity prices generally are higher And they're not going to weaken any time soon I think wage rates are headed higher They're going to go from the lower left to the upper right So she's right about inflation I think she's wrong about a recession I think the fact that we've had the yield curve inverting in the middle of the curve and then the inversion I think is going to become more pronounced over the course of the next several months which is always indicative of a recession So I think that semester probably is wrong about the recessionary call but she is right about the inflationary call When do you think we get a recession Do you think it happens this year I think it happens this year We will market the national bureau of economic research The NBER is the official data of when we go to go into recession when we come out and they're always late on both sides I think they won't say that we've been in a recession until sometime early in 2023 but Bill market is the end of 2022 So I think sometime in the third quarter the numbers will start to be manifestly bearish and manifestly recessionary but will we market as a recession until probably sometime in 2023 the NBR will be very slow to do so I'm curious whether you think we'll see any inflationary impact on the earnings as we start to get into the really the kick-off of earnings season this week We've only got about a minute left That's a good question And I wish I would capable of answering that I'll leave it wiser heads than I am when it comes to announcing and making forecast as to earnings for individual companies All I can say is the economy seems to be slowing down or Shelby slowing down and not too distant future And the recession is on the horizon So that should be deleterious to earnings 6 months into the future but for the next two or three months the earnings numbers will probably be quite good All right Dennis as always good to have you on with us Dennis gartman former publisher of the gartman letter now the chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee as we look ahead to the market open It is pointing to losses on this Monday morning S&P futures are down 22 points right now Dow futures down 80 NASDAQ futures down a 136 and the ten year treasury is down ten 30 seconds now with the yield of 2.73% yield on the two year 2.55 9 X crew down 2.6% right now down two 53 $95 73 cents a barrel Just ahead Ukraine braces for a tougher fight to the east and Elon Musk's on again off again with Twitter So we check your top stories of the morning on Bloomberg daybreak This is a Bloomberg hybrid work is here but for someone to work from here there has to.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"App And at Bloomberg quick take This is a Bloomberg business flash Fast ball as investors weigh risks to the economic recovery from inflation and tightening monetary policy Monza reversed an earlier slide in the dollar advances while oil declines on China's demand concerns It's to be dropped to session lows with energy leading declines among all but two of the 11 major industry groups Stocks remain sensitive to headlines on the war in Ukraine dipping after a report several peace negotiators suffered symptoms of suspected poisoning after a meeting in Kyiv earlier this month Oil tumbled 5% and more as China's worsening virus resurgence boosted concern over demand in the world's biggest crude importer Dennis gartman former publisher of the gartman letter tells Bloomberg he thanks the signs all point to a recession The curve has in the past not been the greatest anticipator of recessions Every recession we've had has been in has seen the inverted curve but we've seen a reverted curves and not had recessions However when you have an inverted curve and I had a spike in the crude oil prices the odds of recession go up rather dramatically So it's at least 60% 70% 75% in the course of the next 12 months I think it's very likely possibility S&P 500 is down three tenths of a percent down 14 the downs down 7 tenths of a percent down 228 and the NASDAQ is down a tenth of a percent down 17 The ten years up 5 30 seconds the yield is 2.45% West intermediate includes down 5 and a half percent at one O 7 67 a barrel with comics rolled down 8 tenths of a percent in 1943 80 and ounce The dollar Yan won 23 36 the Euro a dollar 9 91 in the British founded dollar 30 93 Silver right now is down 1.7% at 25 O 8 per house That's a Bloomberg business flash.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Dennis gartman is with us now Chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee former publisher of the gartman letter as we watch this broad equity sell off on the prospect of a Russian invasion Ukraine of Ukraine Dennis I'm curious what you think the market reaction would be if there actually is an invasion of Ukraine Probably would bounce for the better but this is a bear market We have to understand that there's more going on here than just Russia There's the prospect of the fed taking away the fuel that has fired this bull market for such a long time And for 12 weeks I've been relentlessly saying that this is a bear market and we need to be very careful He or she who loses the least in a bear market will become the winner and that's the reality that nobody wants to understand and nobody wants to deal with But clearly this morning the concerns are over what Russia tends to do I have my doubts as to whether Russia intends to invade it doesn't serve its purpose is very well sending Russian body bags back home with a little not play well with the Russian population And I think that by the time this is done we'll probably see nothing from the Russians at this point but nonetheless the markets are antsy the markets are uncomfortable And the Russians are circumstances just adding fuel to a fire where the fuel of monetary expansion has been taken away So this is a bear market be very careful out there We still have a ways to go on the downside And what bothers me greatly on rallies the volume has been diminishing and on breaks the volume increases that's how bear markets function This is a bear market Be careful What makes you say that this is something that the market doesn't understand that we're in a bear market There is a lot of pricing in the market for the fed to start taking away support as soon as the next few weeks You would think that people would understand that more but we have been trained or the market has trained the public to be a believer that you buy weakness and it's been a bull market for what a decade or more And people get trained to believe in the validity and the ecstasy of a bull market And it takes a while for people to be to be cured of that habit So I think that's what's going on It bothers me greatly that we saw an expansion of options trading We saw an expansion of spacs trading We saw an expansion of NFT trading expansion of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading Those were all examples of the public being brought into the market late in the afternoon of a long day at the bull market I think that people have to be admonished of the fact that the bull market had probably run its course and that a bear market is upon us The only good sign is that historically bear markets tend to go with 15 to 17% down if there's not a recession They tend to go 30 to 35% lower if there is a recession I have my doubts as to whether there's a recession on the horizon And we're getting close so I think we're now down 13% in the NASDAQ from its from its peak of what three or four months ago So maybe we're getting closer to the end of the bear market but I have my doubts So I think people need to be careful and rallies are still to be sold into What's behind your view that we might not be at risk of a recession We got to note this morning from Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson that the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine raises the risk that we could headed toward a recession here There's no question It does raise the risk The only one the one optimistic circumstances the fact that corporate and personal balance sheets are as liquid as they've been in decades And people have saved a lot of money There's a lot of money on the sidelines And perhaps there is a hope I wish a desire that we don't go into a recessionary circumstance but I really do have my doubts that we can that we will stay out I'm fearful that the recession will start I'm fearful that the monetary authorities having become as expansionary as they have been will become contractionary over the course of the next year or two that clearly they're stopping the quantitative easing clearly we're on the Vanguard of monetary tightening Let us just hope that the fed does not sell bonds from its balance sheet that it only lets them mature off If they start selling bonds because they're so fearful of inflation then the yield curve goes to an inversion And then you have a recession But let us hope that we don't have a recession It's not something I'd like to say It's tough enough to be bearish or stocks to be bearish in both recessionary is sinful So heck of a better term We only have about 30 seconds left here Dennis where do you see bond yields going in the medium term The ten year probably will be 3% before the end of before the end of this year maybe early next year I think we take the ten year above 10% But you have to remember when I first started trading the long bond in the late 1970s early 1980s I can remember the long Bond the 30 year having a 14 and a quarter percent coupon And you couldn't give them away at the time And I bring a bad history to the bond market Remembering how high yields can actually go All right Dennis as always great to get your thoughts Thanks so much Dennis gartman former publisher of the gartman letter and now chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee as we continue to watch the equity sell off around the world S&P futures down 36 points now Dow futures down 251 NASDAQ futures are lower by a 138 points The Dax and the cac in Europe both down 3% You're listening to Bloomberg daybreak.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Capitals four three the rangers and bruins also won Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts more than a 120 countries are Michael Barr This is Bloomberg Nathan Okay Michael thanks It's 5 49 on Wall Street and live from the Bloomberg interactive broker studios This is Bloomberg daybreak and Dennis gartman is back with us once again former publisher of the gartman letter Now chair of the university of Akron endowment investment committee Dennis as we mentioned futures are moving higher and the first trading day of the year does tend to be positive for stocks but as we've also been mentioning over the last week or so it's been light trading and it's looking that way once again this morning Do you expect these kinds of gains to continue when we get more participation in the market as the rest of this year unfolds I've been surprised by the strength of the stock market thus far What has bothered me Nathan is the fact that we've rallied on light volume and we've declined on heavy volume And that's not how bull markets act That's how bear markets act But nonetheless the advent of monetary expansion over the course of the past year or two or three has put so much cash into the hands of consumers but so much cash into the hands of institutional buyers and there's just so much cash on the sidelines that needs to be put to work It just surprises me therefore that the stock market continues to go higher on light volume and that's just not how bull markets are supposed to act So it's surprising to me it will continue You can write this down This is something that I've learned over 50 years of being involved in the markets It will continue until it stops It is surprised me thus far It is shocked me thus far but nonetheless the trend has been from the lower left to the upper right As the chairman of the university of Akron's endowment I've actually had the university reduce its exposure to equities we move from some equities into gold last February We moved more equities to the sidelines to protect our spending for the next year or two over the course of the last several weeks And hopefully that will prove to be the wise trading trading activity for the next year or two but time shall tell It's been a bull market and I've been wrong for the past 6 months Well we are expecting I think markets are expecting that we are going to get some policy tightening from the Federal Reserve that we're going to see some rate hikes this year Do you expect that that tightening is going to have a real impact on the price pressures that we've seen in this economy Do you think that we'll start to see inflation pull back this year One would hope that inflation will pull back this year I have my doubts There's always a lag between the growth and the monetary aggregates and as I said earlier inflation is always in everywhere and monetary phenomenon in the monetary authorities have been extraordinarily expansionary for the past several years They will ear up on the side of being monetarily less expansionary over the course of the next several years but inflation lags behind the change in the monetary aggregate So I think you're going to see inflationary numbers the CPI and PPI numbers being much above expectations over the course of next year And a newly constituted FOMC with three very bearish regional presidents coming on and voting beginning this beginning of the January meeting I think it means that the federal begin tightening monetary policy in late and it will be a long while before a tighter monetary policy has a deleterious impact upon inflation which it should eventually But that's going to be I think deleterious to share prices So we shall see I think that the consensus is as I said earlier that the federal Titan the overnight fed funds rate three times this year and by a total maybe with 75 to a hundred basis points I think they'll tighten four times and I think they'll take it more than a hundred basis points through the course of 2022 But time shall tell we shall see We have about a minute left here Dennis What's the overhang for geopolitics on this market We have tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine We have continued competition with China How does that affect the outlook for investments in the new year One would think that the circumstances prevailing in the Ukraine with the Russians who are very good winter fighters And if you'd have asked me a month ago whether the Russians were going to invade Ukraine it has said no because they're afraid of the policies that the United States and the rest of the west will put into effect to keep Russia out of the monetary system in the world would have been an impetus to keep Russia from attacking But I think going into the winter and given the circumstances of prevailing Washington and a weaker than expected presidency and geopolitical circumstances in Washington D.C. I think the Russians are going to go ahead and move into Ukraine And when that happens that can not be supportive of share prices Some will argue that money will move to the United States and away from Europe as a result of that I have my doubts Dennis as always good to speak with you Hope it's a better year Dennis gartman chairman of the university of Akron endowment investment committee and former publisher of the gartman letter with us this morning on Bloomberg daybreak Karen Nathan is 5 53 on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg law report Let's get to the legal stories we're watching this morning from Bloomberg Jeff.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Designed to support all major asset classes. Diverse strategies and investment vehicles s c. I is redefining wealth management learned more. It s C i c com slash I am s, the S and P 500 is Hira the open up a third of upper center 12 points and 38 38. Al Jones Industrial Average, Lower down two tens for center, 65 points and 30,632 and the NASDAQ's up 7/10 Percent or 98 points and 13,712 10 Year Treasury down 5 30 seconds yelled 1.11% Yield on the two year 20.11% Nymex crude oil up 1.2% or 66, cents a 55 42 a barrel. We'll make school that 3/10 percent or found dollars. 90 says it 18 39 40 announce the euro 1.2028 against the dollar yen went 05 point. No. One and watching games stop. It's up more than 25%. Will. AMC is up 13%, Tom and Paul A Karen. Thank you so much greatly greatly appreciate that running greeted the screen right now. So this is the way it works, folks. There is the siren call of the Bloomberg Chart system or whatever system you're using at home. Maybe on your cell phone in your car. And what you know is Dennis Gartman this morning at 4 A.m.. Went long game. Stop it! 75 top, ticked it just before this interview and got out with a 63% gain at 1 20 neck clean. And that's the call Dennis Gartman on the ease of a look back in speculation. Cause we can look back at our charts and say What if I'd done that? What if I'd done this? And then there's a call. Placing the bet right now, How does Dennis Gartman place a bet in something like games stop after a massive short squeeze. Picked Kansas City. Good answer. I don't think I don't think anybody even somebody who's been in the market for 45 years as I have should really be trading game. Stop with any kind of money that is consequential. Go have fun. If you wish. Go punch if you want. Should've could've would've gone. You can. I mean, it's just It's anybody's game at this point, and we're moving. What? Down 60% yesterday up 25%. Today you forget a Z. I think I sent you a note. It was a 13 year old that I heard yesterday, saying that he'd never seen anything like this in six days of trading. Dennis I look at this and let's get back to principles. One and garment folks is so good at this. With decades of experience. What's the dentist? Government difference between investing and speculation? I learned the hard way when I was training at a bank years and years ago that a investment is a speculation that has gone awry and you decide that you're gonna hold the loss of hope it gets better. That's right way. We've all been there. And we have all been there. That's the important point. The most important point that I think the thing that I have learned most over the 45 years I've been involved in the market is a very simple rule. Do more of that which has been working and try your darndest to do less of that which has not Add to the winning trade. And don't whatever you do add to a losing position. And if you learned if I've learned anything, that's it every time I break that rule, I wish that I hadn't every time of a here to that rule. I wish that I'd Dunmore. I mean, that's the most important thing and the public. I'm afraid that the public is going to lose a huge amount of money in what they did in game. Stop. What? They've already lost a lot because they didn't buy it. The public didn't get really terribly involved until it was trading above 60 and then 102 104 100. The public has been averaging into losing trades for the past four days. And I'm afraid that they're gonna lose large sums of money as they hold the line as they're now being told to do Let me do it day to check here right down the vics 24.94 games Stop 70 upto 1 20. It is reversed here and initial trades. We make jokes about it, but it's been painful. 1 20 ish down to one a one still a little bit above where it was yesterday, churning away Let me while we're here, we could do this on the Bloomberg terminal. Let me look at Amazon Dennis Garment something maybe a little bit away from Gamestop Amazon elevated fractionally, I would say is well, how do you hold onto a stock mark? Cuban was out getting headlines. About Hold. Hold. Hold. How does Dennis Gartman mentally hold hold? Hold Amazon through thick and thin. I have an old rule about markets. Anything that moves 5% against me. It's probably time to reduce my position, and he kind of 7% against me. It's time to reduce it. Even Maurin anytime and most 10% against me. It's probably time to get out and go to the sidelines. Hold hold. Hold as long as the market keeps moving in your favor by puts to protect yourself. Put stop borders in to protect yourself. But anytime something moves more than 56789%, You probably need to reevaluate what you've been doing. I find it amusing. How often people get cavalier about 10% declines in stock prices 10% decline in stock prices to me. Very are beyond important. They're extremely material and attention should be paid. Genocide. I follow you on social media and you were getting some pushback. You know, during this whole game stop thing about suggesting that the robin hoods of the world and some of the other platforms actually did. The right thing. Just explain to his kind of how you viewed some of the curtailments of stock trading that Robin Hoods of the world were did last week. Robin Hood had no choice but to curtail trading because its capital requirements were zooming higher in the courses of half an hour, one hour to hour periods of time options trades that had to be cleared. On had to be paid for and had to be and money had to be exchanged within 24 hours on one side were not being replicated on the other side, and it takes probably 48 hours to get money transferred properly. And you know, in order to meet their capital requirements with the SEC with the exchanges and most importantly, with their clearing firm. Gamestop had no choice but this suspend trading for a period of time. Did they suspend trading permanently? No. Did they take Did they force everybody to take a deep breath? Yes, the futures markets have always had limits in place. People argue sometimes with limits, but they cause everybody to take a take a deep breath. Wait for the next move. Make sure margins are being met properly. I think it was absolutely the proper and required thing to have done. Or that is their possibilities. There was some sort of pollution of the margin. Of course, there is. Well what we find out after some investigation, Probably we shall. But the Gamestop interactive brokers and the rest of people do exactly the right thing. Not a not a contentious period of time. Yes. Did they do anything illegal? Absolutely not. Interesting so that David Portnoy's of the world claiming foul They're kind of missing Gardenlerner. David corn, I was, I think, made a fool of himself when he said that these people should be put in jail. Absolutely not. They did exactly what they were required to do. Under the law to meet the requirements of capital at the clearing corporation. They did the right thing and calling them out for having done the right thing is absolutely the wrong thing. All right, Dennis, let's let's back away from some of that. Let's call that noise if you will. What's your view of the market right here? I think it's extremely expensive. What bothers me is that when we were growing up, I tend to pay attention to do what the technicians call the internals. What bothers me about the stock market is it goes up on on rallies, It is going up on lesser volume on declines. Volume is coming in very substantially good market viable markets. Strong market should go up on strong volume on rising volume and fall on weakening volume. When the markets go up on lesser volume. It causes me to be concerned. So that that's the first thing that bothers me. Plus, I can. I can show you any sort of historical measurements place their earnings multiple place to sales, multiple GDP to stock prices, almost anything And public participation or such high levels. I think stock prices are extremely overvalued, and I'm actually on the sidelines completely sitting utterly and totally and completely in cash. Davis government is silver, the same as gold. I mean, I don't want to go all William Jennings Bryan on you. But this garment discern between gold and silver. Silvers for younger people. Speculative people, courageous people. I love Are you talking about the fourth floor? Tiffany, right? Yeah, It's a different type of market now. Silver by if you wish to trade silver, and I wish you luck because the volatility of silver is so much more than is the volatility of gold. Silver relative to gold, the historic gold silver ratio. Silver is still relatively cheap relative to gold. So if you're going to be a buyer my silver and sell gold Do that trade because historically, I mean that that ratio got to 100 a six months ago. It cost it took 100 ounces of silver. By one ounce of gold. It's down to about 68 ounces of silver to buy one answer Golden. Historically, it should be closer to 50 ounces of silver. So silver is still cheap relative to gold, but it's silver cheap now. And is it going to be squeezed? I have my very serious doubts..
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dennis gartman" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think it had gone a little bit to the boy. It'll become a borderline irrational and as the Lord the Kings once said, the market can remain irrational, far longer than you or I can remain solvent. As I like to say. My corollary to that is that the market will return to rationality. The moment you have been rendered insolvent. I think we've gotten a little too. It's extraordinary. I think we've got an extraordinarily overpriced Little too exuberant and share prices. They're probably gonna wonder their way down a little bit of the world has to deal with the fact that the United States government is in a bit of disarray. A year from now, two years from now, stocks will be higher a month from now, two months around, stocks will probably the probably be lower in about a minute left here, Dennis we're seeing increased steepening in Treasury yield curves as well. Where do you see the Treasury market going? I think the Yorker has been sleeping in the yield curve is is almost certainly going to continue to steepen. The Fed has made it abundantly clear. It has no intention none zero knot of allowing the overnight said funds right to move in above zero, or let's call it 25 basis points between now and the next two or three years. Inflationary expectations are beginning to rise, forcing the long end of the curve higher. I think that's something that's going to continue for a long period of time. You've got the long bond trading about a 1 85 yield. I think it goes to 3% over the course the next several years. No, that sounds like a long move. But I was when I first got in the business in the early 19 seventies, the long bond had an 8% coupon. And at one time in the early 19 eighties, the long bond had a 14 and a quarter percent coupon. And you couldn't give it away. So can we get 23% of the long end? Easily, Dennis Gartman always great having you on Thank you so much for coming on early with us. Dennis Gartman is the former publisher of the Gartman letter. And as we look at markets this morning, it is definitely looking risk off to start the week here with S and P futures down 23 points right now. Dow Futures down 201 NASDAQ Futures lower by just about 60 points, 10 Year Treasury yield 1.10% in Bitcoin right now, 35 8 80. You're.
Bloomberg Daybreak
Trump and Pence say they see signs of US COVID-19 outbreak stabilising
"Daybreak president trump vice president pence say they see signs of the corona virus outbreak stabilizing we are joined now by Dennis Gartman the economist a formally of the Gartman letter Dennis it's always a pleasure thank you for taking the time with us this morning we are seeing stocks higher today because of that optimism that we've been talking about this morning coming out of the White House what is your reaction to the move in the markets and is that going to last well I doubt that a show last very long there's no the markets have a tendency to to rebound fifty percent of what they have lost in in in in bear markets and bear market rallies tend to be very dangerous and very swift very volatile the fact that we have the the Dow trading into a trip down futures at twenty one seven hundred right now twenty one thousand seven hundred can we get to twenty four thousand in the next week or two on a technical bounce of course we can but are we likely to see new highs in the near future now or not I think this is a dead cat bounce one that can be played on the long side and I think that last week's lows if you're going to be a buyer you put your stops order stop order then at last week's lows but so this last for more than a week or two I doubt it one of the problems that we haven't come in in the in the stock market is a great buyer the then companies themselves have been buying their own shares for years and years have basically been precluded from buying some buying their shares back for years and years into the future so the great buyer is gone but is this a good bounce yes can be traded from the long side yes should you traded from the long side I doubt it and if you wish to be longer stocks better to be short of the bond market that's probably the better correlative trade as the oil did give up some of last week's rally it does look like it is starting to pare back some of those losses Cruz lawyer lower although what what do you think of oil prices turned the corner I doubt that oil prices have turned the corner also but but again just like the stock market a good bounce was required a good bounce has been had and watch the without getting too esoteric what's that the term structure the shifting nature the front month versus the second third and fourth month back beginning early last week when crude oil is on its in in the dinner on the downside the the the term structure began to now which was the first bullish sign here we have the the the the market having rallied from one nineteen ninety in nearby WTI to twenty nine dollars a day per barrel which is a huge balance if you think about it today the term structures actually turning somewhat berry so I think the the the rally in the crude oil market has probably run its course and if you're going to trade crude oil trade from the short side nitrate only from my own account my retirement account I'm in the market every day I don't have any crude oil position on right now but if you made me do something at the short of it the president has said that he doesn't think he's going to have to impose the tariffs on imported oil but he's also holding that option in reserve what would that do well that would clearly tighten up the with the WTI Brent spread you'd probably take WTI to a premium over Brent I think it would be an illogical and very badly designed very bad decision on the president's part any talk of any tears in any instance it's going to be deleterious to whatever to the to the to the stock market that ostensibly to the crude oil market dramatically but it be beneficial to WTI so if you if you're if you're a believer in putting those tariffs on probably the trade you want to put on his long WTI short brand but then I going to do that on my own account now it's your money well bonds are the haven of choice for a lot of people are they getting too expensive now bonds are way too expensive I I had I see no reason why anybody would want for the long term down ten year treasuries with a sixty five basis point handle sulfur again I trade only for my own account and on Friday actually went short modestly mater marginally small tiny for the first time in a long time but I'm actually short a little bit of a long and and my propensity is to add to it because I I do think if we get a a good technical bounce a good dead cat bounce in the in the stock market you'll get a correlative decline in the long end of the yield curve so I'm trying to get them short of the the bond market for my own account and thinking of adding to that position this morning I just can't imagine anybody wants to own for ten years a treasury security that has a sixty five basis point