21 Burst results for "Democratic Coalition"
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes
"Wasn't i think that there were a lot of racism That we're a lot closer than expected that we won. And so i think people didn't really notice you know my go-to example is west. Virginia senate fivethirtyeight said. We would win by eleven. We ended up winning by one. Ohio and michigan also ended up being a lot closer than expected. And so i think people didn't notice but was a great flashing light. That this this exact same polling eric happened again and flash forward to twenty twenty and again you see the same polling pattern in wisconsin that were polls saying that biden would win by ten points or fifteen points in. That clearly didn't happen. And so that gets us to the next air which is okay but this time the national polls wrong and basically the nice thing about our polling you know. We don't just poll tons of people we can also we asked him. You know we pay them. We asked for their personal information. So we can actually join them to voter files and something. That was really interesting. We went back and looked is we looked at. What percentage of the people who are answering our surveys were democratic primary voters or adopted in the twenty twenty democratic binary and for most of two thousand nine hundred ninety nine it was around eleven or twelve percent pretty constant and then it suddenly spikes in march two sixteen or seventeen percent and then it stays at this elevated level basically for the rest of the election basically to this day. And you know. That's not something that most posters account for. You know you're canopy. You can't wait on whether or not you voted in a democratic climbing rain. But i think it seems like a very reasonable assumption that the reason for this was that democrats were stuck home. Respecting lockdown and republicans proportionally weren't and those actually justin research. Release yesterday that coaling era was very strongly correlated with covid rates. And we also have you know a lot of lot of cell phone. Mobility data showing democrats. Really were staying home substantially more than republicans. And so you know what happened. Not just for fun. But basically every four measurement you just had these democrats who were stuck inside and they became much more likely to answer surveys in a weird way right. It's not it's less non-response bias than pro response by right. Like they're they're like becoming like super responders as opposed to like. Oh the shy trump voter thesis that. I'm not going to pick up the phone. The pollster you get you get the opposite reaction. Which is they're sitting around. And also i think sitting around again when you say like the share of the respondents who were voted democratic primaries is way too high to model the electric right. These are like people that vote. Democratic primaries are pretty. Committed partisans like there are also feeling like frustrated impotent. And it's like they want to answer a poll to be like screw this dude. Yeah the other the other big piece. Almost every single poll saw this really large vote. Likelihood advantage between democrats and republicans and that clearly didn't materialize. I think turnout's gonna end up being a little bit more favorable to republicans and it was in two thousand sixteen and the funny thing is even that itself. You know people talk about getting. The electorate wrong seems to have been non response bias. That basically the democrats were picking up the phone. Were exactly these democrats who were super frustrated in super engage and you could see they were just much more likely to vote overall than the democrats who didn't in this really distorted the percentage of people who said they were definitely gonna vote really ruined people's likely voter screens..
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"Have a bad taste in their mouth that you obviously we have talked about how Biden was able to win back. Some of those areas that were lost by Hillary Clinton. There was some strategy involved in picking and choosing the surrogates and when to bring them on even former President Obama. Market's doing these these events until pretty late in the game, right, John and they were very targeted to specific areas. The I four corridor will be the big rally in Flint and in Detroit. The's were get out the vote movements, but I think in many ways, Biden wanted to run his own campaign show himself to be the person prepared to assume this office. And it's really just think about John, where we were. In January Writer in February when Joe Biden came in fourth in the Iowa caucuses, We were writing his political obituary after the New Hampshire primary, where it comes in fifth. He doesn't win the Nevada caucuses. It wasn't until South Carolina, where he was able to turn his fortunes around propel into Super Tuesday. It's a pretty remarkable campaign when you think about where it started. So where it ended up I want to go next to Josh Cross our he is Fox News Radio's political analyst, and he has been involved all this week in terms of our coverage of the 2020 presidential election, and Josh. Welcome to this historic day. America's 46 president has now been determined based upon the projections of Fox News and other News organizations. I'm curious and looking at this election. What were the keys? What were the keys for Joe Biden in terms of beating an incumbent president so difficult to Dio to beat a sitting president who's running for reelection? Well, look, John, it was all about his initial campaign pitch, a return to normalcy. That was the message that the Biden campaign stuck with during the primary. It's the message they stuck with during a relatively low key. General election campaign that coincided with the onset of the pandemic, and it was one that really fit the mood of the country that there were. A lot of voters might have agreed with Trump on some policies but didn't like the tweets didn't like. The craziness didn't like the chaos and two buttons credit. He's You know, Jerry's just talking aboutthe lows, Fourth place in Iowa Fifth place in New Hampshire looks like he may have to drop out of the race at one point after that, that New Hampshire finish, And yet he's stuck with his message. He got critical support from Jim Clyburn and moderates across the country both in the primary and now looking at this map in the general election. The Capstone is Pennsylvania today, but it's also look Georgia and Arizona State that usually vote Republican. Tipping the Biden little likelihood, giving him a pretty significant majority of the country. Do you agree with what so many others have said, And looking at this race that suburban women African American voters, young voters played a critical role in terms of this coalition. That Joe Biden had put together for this election. Absolutely. I mean, this was Ah, Ah Wide coalition, one of the broader Democratic coalitions I can remember. In my couple decades covering politics. You had everyone from the Bernie Wing of the party and Bernie Sanders, his rival during the Democratic Primary ended up biting this time. And even though Joe Biden wasn't his cup of tea ideologically, he did a lot of hard work to campaign for Joe Biden and unite the party behind Joe Biden, unlike what happened in 2016 when there was a lot of feuding between the progressives and Hillary Clinton, but you also have the John Kasich Wing of the Republican Party and now part of the Democratic Coalition for Job You had Cindy McCain endorsing Ah, Joe Biden in a very prominent way in Arizona, you had a number of anti Trump Republicans that stayed that way folks who were big Mitt Romney fans in 2012 but didn't like the direction of the Republican Party, and it wasn't a huge number, but they were enough of a difference. Toe. To make make a big impact in key states and key suburban battle grounds across the country. I want to go back to Jared Halpern, who covers Congress for Fox News, Radio. Jared, Give me your sense about What happens next? As far as President Trump is concerned his relationship. He is still the president of the United States, his relationship with the Republican leaders in Congress, and there's still this effort to pass a Corona virus relief bill. What? What happens with that during This lame duck period that were that America will now the end. No, That's the big question. I think John is what is governance look like now? Ah, move now away from from theologian and into this lame duck, because Job. I excuse me. Mitch McConnell had really taken a back seat to the Corona virus Negotiations. They have been led up to this point by Steve Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary and speaker Pelosi and the idea was that the two of them could get together on a big bowl deal. Then the president could bring along reluctant senator's reluctant Republican senators. Is that dynamic still exist A big question. Not only Corona virus, John government's only funded through the second week of December. That's before the inauguration on the 20th of January, so they're still has to be a spending bill that would have to be passed by the House passed by the Senate and signed into law by President Trump. What role does the administration play in hammering those details generally when these things have been negotiated when government shutdowns have been avoided when government shutdowns have been resolved? It's been because House Democrats led by Speaker Pelosi and somebody from the administration, generally not the president himself. But the Treasury secretary chief of staff have negotiated those details. So I think the big question now on Capitol Hill When we get back at it next week will be what does governance look like? Who sort of you know is this still a status quo situation?.
It's Election Day. Take a breath. Here's what to expect.
"Politics. And this landscape in particular, Wendy Schiller joins us. She of Brown University, of course on a friend to the program, and Teo Is the station with the chair of political science again at Brown University. Wendy, What is your base case? No. I just get right to it. I think here's what I think will will know from some congressional races, I think, signaling earlier than even the presidential races. We know that there's a lot of people who are elected in 2018 in what we call competitive swing district like Virginia, for example. Leave Illinois. We have a couple of races in Texas that look really tight and are surprisingly competitive. We have a couple of Minnesota, you know if things start to swing in congressional district sooner. For the Democrats. Then you start to think, Okay, maybe buy will have a very good night. But, you know, we'll know about Florida will know about North Carolina will know about Arizona, and we'll know about Georgia, probably, but before midnight tonight, and if all of those swing for Trump If Trump looks really healthy in those states and looks like he could win, then I think things get very, very dicey for Biden, so that's a big sort of vomit or buying only when one of those states You know, one of those four states or look like he's in the lead in a considerable lead in one of those states for him, that sort of have a more relaxed night. But if he if Trump wins, all of Omar looks like he's going to win all of them, I think that that tells us that this sort of blue wave we thought might emerge isn't going to emerge the same way. So, Professor. How do you think the Senate will shake out is there in fact, you know the market's kind of suggesting here today that a blue wave may in fact be in the cards? How do you think that might go in the Senate? That that that's a great question, Paul because you think about the Senate, and you think you know Mitch McConnell is totally immune. This time, you would have thought if there's a big blue wave. You know, The guy has really been the poster boy for the campaign against the Republicans controlling the Senator Mitch McConnell. He's goingto probably breeze to reelection, some a little suspicious of that big blue way for the Senate. Iowa looks neck and neck. You know, we had a recent poll. That's very credible that looks like Joni Ernst can pull it out and stay. You know if Cal Cunningham can win in North Carolina That suggests probably that the Democrats might get 51. If they can win Maine as well. Probably away in Arizona. Probably gonna win Colorado and lose Alabama, so they're looking at probably minimally a 51 49 Republican, or 50, 50 51 49 Democrats. So I think that's where they you know, we don't know. And I think that's where North Carolina becomes so important, even even if we don't know by Trump. You know, it's Cal Cunningham looks like he's really gonna win that race that suggest better things. The Democrats across the board for the Senate Say some of that again. When do you say Arizona is definitely going to go Democrat Texas? What did you say about Texas? And then also, I think, Arizona for Mark Kelly. I think he's been polling very consistently ahead of Martha makes alley. But you can imagine, let's say people voting for more. Kelly, a former astronaut. You know and not voting for Joe Biden. You know, voting for Kelly because they want him over more than Sally and they voted for Trump in Arizona. You didn't see the Democrats winning Senate in Arizona but not winning the presidential race. Then Texas is, you know, shocking right? The turnout in Texas has been absolutely shocking. And but it looks like John Cornyn comfortably ahead of head guard that the challenger there, But I think the issue is that Trump is only basically one point ahead in Texas, which is just you know, if you think about politics, just stunning. Same with Georgia. George will be interesting because it does not get 50% or more against us off. Then you've got to run off elections in Georgia in January, and I think that's really going to be some interesting voting dynamics, so it's possible the Senate Democrats could ultimately end up with a 51 of 52 majority, but I still think it's a bit of a long shot. So Professor if the presidential election becomes contested, what is your kind of base case for how it may play out? I think we could be faced with an unprecedented historic situation. I think you know if we have a tie, for example, if in the Electoral College in December's actually a tie, it goes to the newly elected house, which is expected Thio more Democratic. However, the Republicans still control more votes in state delegations than the Democrats, and that's Probably isn't going to change so you could conceivably have literally the house electing a re electing President Trump but in the Senate. If it's 51 49 with the new Senate and its new Democrats, then they may like Tomahawk. Advice. I mean, really, quite stunning. It's really stunning thing. So I think so many things have changed already in 2020 weather, Trump gets reelected or not, is obviously monumental. But even if he gets reelected, I think the Democrats have shown they know how to mobilize voters, and I think they've shown some of these states have changed a lot in terms of demographics, and they are going to be more competitive, moving forward. Which changes the nature of politics going to 2022. If we know that politicians look at the next election the minute this election is over, and so when we start to think about what the balance of power might be in the Senate house in 2022 these gains the Democrats appear to be making among voters in the states. Changes a lot of dynamics, which will probably change some of the policies coming out of Congress. Yeah, I mean, it's really the African American gold, right, Wendy and how much more of that will see? We're already seeing, you know, a lot more engagement. Yeah. So I think African American who has always been key in North Carolina and Georgia had about 64% African American turnout in 2016. It wasn't enough because those numbers were not hit in in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania among African American voters, and they, you know they may or may not get there. If they get there, I think Biden winds relatively easily. But what's interesting is suburban white women. Of all educational levels seem to be really vehemently at the moment against Trump in the polls, and it could be that instead of the black vote really being key in the Midwest, it ends up being white women. Which would be really interesting shift, you know, mirrors 2018 when white, the majority of white women voted for democratic candidates, But it would change the nature of the Democratic coalition. If that were the deciding factor, So that's what I'm looking for. I'm looking for turnout, particularly in particular counties in Michigan. Well, we still have. A lot of people are gonna vote in person and certainly in Pennsylvania when you were really out of time. But I am desperate to
Polls show Biden winning: Can you believe them?
"The polls predict that by Wednesday next week. Joe. Biden will be the next president of. The United States, how sound forecast this is however is still very much anyone's guess and we'll anything that Joe Biden or Donald Trump do or say this weekend make any difference to the way people will vote well to look ahead to the last few days of campaigning I'm joined by Jacob, parakeet us, affairs analyst, and associated the london-based think-tank llc. Ideas Welcome Jacob. Good Morning. So the last twenty four hours is very much a focus on Florida hasn't it was both candidates pushing hard in different ways. Yes. As usual, you have trump doing his big non socially distanced sort of pretend democ style rallies and Biden having adapted more to the pandemic world doing socially distance or drive in rallies being seen wearing a mask and that sort of thing. Florida is key for a number of reasons. One is that it's virtually impossible to imagine a trump win that doesn't involve Florida. If Biden wins Florida trump would have to not only win every single other state that he won in two thousand sixteen but pick off a number of states that Biden a Hillary Clinton won some quite comfortably. So if trump finish is Trump finished second in Florida then it's pretty much over for him and the other key thing about Florida is. Contrary to the what happened in two thousand with the endlessly delayed and contentious recount. Florida now counted spoke very very quickly. So we expect to know the winner in Florida probably by early Wednesday morning. So that would be an early indicator. Now, if Biden Loses Florida particularly, if it's a close loss that doesn't mean it's over and trump has one biden has numerous other paths to the presidency that don't involve Florida but especially given the. Value that trump has put on vote suppression and on trying to pressure the courts to shut down the legitimate counting of votes early, an early loss for him in Florida could take the steam out of that effort, which is why part of the reason why I think you're seeing his campaign put so much effort there. So what kind of narratives will be getting from both candidates with very very different campaigns Florida's Today. Well the trump campaign is trying to tie Joe Biden to. Latin America Socialism. Florida of course, has a very large Latino population many of whom come from Venezuela or Cuba. So trying to tie Joe Biden to be socialist leadership in Latin American countries. This been a recurring theme in the trump campaign I don't think it's necessarily a particularly accurate charge that might have worked as a campaign line slightly better against Bernie Sanders But that doesn't mean that it won't be effective in some quarters of the the mole lightining parts of the particularly the Cuban American population The counterweight to that and I think the reason why Biden has generally lead impulse in Florida albeit by a small margin is trump's management of covid nineteen has deeply alienated seniors and Florida is America's retirement heartland. So there are huge numbers of people over the age of sixty five who are also the most vulnerable to Covid nineteen and who've made up the bulk of the deaths and serious From the disease. So Biden has been losing ground with Latino voters, but he's also been making up that ground with seniors. And, show, you might see a slightly strange democratic coalition generally Republicans do well with older voters but because Biden missing is relatively unthreatening and because he's seen as more competent than handling. This disease, which predominantly affects older Americans. He might well more than make up his losses amongst the Latino voters we're looking at Biden being up in three of the key swing states which trump took last time, which is Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. What does that say about what the both candidates need to do this weekend? Well I think I mean the polling in those states particularly in Michigan Wisconsin? Has Really suggested that they're not as nearly as competitive as they were last time. The Biden has if not put them out of reach. Put them very close out of reach. Pennsylvania is a again like Florida really keyed polling. There has been a little bit closer. Trump has managed to keep Biden's average margin down to about five points verses seven, eight, nine as with the Upper Midwest. So, you could imagine a combination of voter suppression pulling error and maybe using the courts to fro out legitimate mailed in ballots on some weak pretext a big enough to bring trump over the over the top in Pennsylvania. Again. Though you know that could Pennsylvania's twenty electoral votes. It's bigger than Wisconsin or Michigan by a significant margin By also beating in Arizona in. The second Congressional district of Nebraska in the second. Congressional district main both of which award individual electoral votes he could in theory scout and electoral vote margin just on the basis of Michigan Wisconsin Arizona and the Individual Congressional district. So it's it's if anything even more key for both than. Than its Florida but Biden losing, it doesn't completely shut off Biden's path. We have widespread coverage of the number of people voting ahead of the ballot on the third of November some of predicting that with what I think eighty million votes have already cost and some predictions saying that it could be one hundred and fifty million people voting ahead of the of of Tuesday. What is that going to say about the way that votes are counted and will count come the closure of the polls There's not a single answer to that question because this is a state by state issue. Some states have relatively generous rules allowing the receipt of ballots up to suffer several days after the election as long zero postmarked before election. Day. The the issue of course is that under the supervision of trump's handpicked postmaster general mail delivery has slowed down considerably. But the impact of all this there's been a kind of you could call it a streisand effect I think of. All the attempts that trump has made to meddle with ill voting to meddle with attempts at expanding the franchise, and that has been to prioritize voting for in person early getting ballots in early the rates of receipt for. Nailed ballots amongst Democrats are very, very high. Now, there are specific places that the Democrats are worried about like Miami Dade County but that doesn't mean that they're necessarily going to lose their the fact that so many regular Democratic voters are getting their vote in early means that for these last. Few. Minutes the Party and its affiliated ideological pressure groups can focus on voters who are more regular. Maybe haven't turned in their votes yet and really focus on getting those people out to vote. So we won't know until the counting is done how that's shaped up some states give registration of voters breakdown. So we know for instance, how many Democrats have requested ballots how many Republicans are requested valid in Florida, but there's also a big population of independent some we have various polling that suggests how they might vote, but we don't know for sure and just the rates of early voting. They give us a hint as to what the ultimate vote count will be. But I think we have to be careful not over over overemphasize what we can know about who those votes four particularly there'll be a small but not insignificant crossover of people who have historically been Republicans voting for Joe Biden people who have historically been Democrat. But you'd have voted for Republicans for years but never bothered changed their party registration and that sort of thing. Finally Jacob. There's a question of peacefulness to do with this I mean. Donald, trump has already said that unless. There is a huge swing towards Joe, Biden then he will cry raked and then a whole new process begins.
Florida: The swingiest swing state in the U.S. election
"I want to talk a bit about how we got here and why at least since the the famous near Tie of two thousand does just seem to be Florida or at least partially about Florida. Michael ask, you first win and why did floor to become the key battleground? Republican hasn't won the White House without Florida forever. So that's part of the reason that it's become. So you know everybody desperately wants it and it just seems to be the self-balancing State where it's about twenty percent immigrants. But you know the last the last fifty, million votes that have been cast for presidential candidates in. Florida. Republicans. Democrats, are separated by about twenty thousand and we've had just about every election. Every statewide election seems to come down to one percent and just seems like every time another white person. Republican moves down here from the Midwest another democratic leaning Immigrants May move into central Florida from the Global South and so it's a really seems to be self-balancing. Beyond those demographics that Monolithic is it a case of elderly white pensioners voting for Republicans, and more recent arrivals from elsewhere trading Democrat or is there some kind of overlap between spillage among those groups? As you can probably imagine it's a little bit more complex in that I think that there's didn't kind of increasing awareness for both Democrats and Republicans that some of the key demographics here you know the American immigrants but you know you have the first generation, the second generation you have the newer arrivals you have the. You have the Cubans you have the Puerto Ricans have the Haitians. There's such a mix of people and cultures and experiences, and when you add to that kind of the New Yorkers that are coming to Florida to retire, and you have all these different politics and ideologies of mixed together I think you really get. Such a representation of both the Conservatives and the liberals in both the US. But also in Latin America and I think that when you look at South Florida, you see a lot of those kind of play. You see you know from Columbia, you see the Conservatives from Columbia and you see the progressives from Columbia. So you have such a makes of. Of just these ideologies that really comes to shine like Michael said in the way that people vote. Michael is the a geographic split within Florida as well because it's the general tendency in the United States and elsewhere that cities tend to be more liberal more vaguely left-wing rural parts of a given state or given country tend to be more conservative. Is that clear cut in that respect in Florida? Well, again I think. Could certainly right that it's always a little more complicated but that's generally true I think you know you saw in two thousand sixteen that Hillary Clinton did even better than expected in a lot of the urban areas She Barack Obama won Florida and Hillary Clinton. Did even better in some of the particularly in south Florida in Miami and Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach and some of the more urbanized area. But Donald Trump there was an absolute revolution of essentially white people in the exurbs coming out and voting for trump in the rural and sort of farther away from the cities you don't want to over stereotype. But it certainly true that the Republican coalition has you know the heart of it is older white people who are very reliable voters and the Democratic Coalition relies on younger urban lots of immigrants, lots of minorities who in the past have not been turned out has not been as High Bianca. Those factors taken into consideration that I guess the Republican Party's and democratic parties in Florida will have an amount obviously in common with the National Party and parties elsewhere is there still a distinctive political culture within Florida like basically what I'm asking are Florida Republicans different from other Republicans, into Florida Democrats different from other States Democrats. I think when it gets down to it when you're thinking of. Our Florida Latinos for example, are they always kind of leaning Democrat or you know Florida South Florida Latinos are they always leaning Republican as people kind of think a lot of the time because of the cuban-american population I think that a lot of that is is changing. So at whether whether or not, you're going to see more cuban-americans still voting. Republican. In the way that they usually do a lot of that is kind of breaking and and being undone because of the younger generation, you know really having more of an experience in the. US and seeing the way that their families grew up in thinking about healthcare and climate change as more of priorities to them. So you know I would say that the main difference if there was one is here you can see a lot of distinctive kind of you see mixed political ideologies in families. So I've met even candidates who are you know Democrats were running now for public office in Florida and their families are different completely different ideology from them. So I think that that's what's interesting right and what makes Florida you know such. Unique and fascinating state is that it's changing all the time and it's changing not just because of the of the new kind of waves of immigrants that are coming in but also the new generations that are really having a different kind of awareness than the one their parents did. We'll talk more in the second half of the program about how Florida may have changed in the last four years and what it might be like in this election. But Michael just before we do that I don't like to tempt fate too much by talking about what happened in two thousand when basically an entire parallel history of the twentieth century got chalked off by a margin of a few hundred votes in Florida but. Still. Talk about that election much in Florida and Walton immense sliding doors moment that was not just for the United States. But as it turned out for the entire world, you know I think that's a great way. Great way of putting it because it certainly was I mean you know you wouldn't have an Iraq war if it wasn't for five hundred, thirty, seven votes the other way. And I think it's just a great example of. Of. You know the way these these elections and Florida are always one on the margins. Sort of every community matters again at the margins these things make a huge difference. I think. You know Republicans have been much better organized since two thousand and you saw in two thousand with that Brooks brothers riot But but everyone knows it's going to be close and and that really is a place where every vote counts.
Florida: The swingiest swing state in the U.S. election
"Want to talk a bit about how we got here and why at least since the the famous near Tie of two thousand does just seem to be Florida or at least partially about Florida Michael Ask, you first win and why did floor to become the key battleground Republican hasn't won the White House without Florida forever. So that's part of the reason that it's become. So you know everybody desperately wants it and it just seems to be the self-balancing State where it's about twenty percent immigrants. But you know the last the last fifty, million votes that have been cast for presidential candidates in Florida Republicans, Democrats are separated by about twenty thousand and we've had just about every election. Every statewide election seems to come down to one percent and just seems like every time another white person Republican moves down here from the Midwest. Another democratic leaning immigrants may move into central Florida from the global south, and so it's a really seems to be self-balancing. Beyond those demographics that Monolithic is it a case of elderly white pensioners voting for Republicans and more recent arrivals from elsewhere trading Democrat or is there some kind of overlap between spillage among those groups? As you can probably imagine it's a little bit more complex in that I think that there's didn't kind of increasing awareness for both Democrats and Republicans that some of the key demographics here you know the American immigrants but you know you have the first generation, the second generation, you have the newer arrivals you have the. You have the Cubans you have the Puerto Ricans, have the Haitians. There's such a mix of people and cultures and experiences, and when you add to that kind of the new. Yorkers. That are coming to Florida to retire and you have all these different politics and ideologies kind of mixed together. I. Think you really get. Such a representation of both the Conservatives and the liberals in both the US. But also in Latin America and I think that when you look at South Florida, you see a lot of those kind of play. You see you know from Columbia from Columbia and you see the progressives from Columbia. So you have such a makes of. Of just these ideologies that really comes to shine like Michael said in the way that people vote. Michael is the a geographic split within Florida as well because it's the general tendency in the United, states and elsewhere that cities tend to be more liberal more vaguely left-wing rural parts of a given state or given country tend to be more conservative. Is that clear? Cut In that respect in Florida? Well, again I think. Could certainly right that it's always a little more complicated but that's generally true I think you know you saw in two thousand sixteen that Hillary Clinton did even better than expected in a lot of the urban areas she. Barack. Obama won Florida and Hillary Clinton did even better in some of the particularly in south Florida in Miami and Fort Lauderdale and West, Palm Beach and some of the more urbanized area. But Donald Trump, there was an absolute revolution of essentially white people in the exurbs coming out and voting for trump in the rural and sort of farther away from the cities you don't want to over stereotype. But it certainly true that the Republican coalition has you know the heart of it is older white people who are very reliable voters and the Democratic Coalition relies on younger urban lots of immigrants, lots of minorities who in the past have not been turned out has not been as High Bianca. Those factors taken into consideration that I guess the Republican Party's and democratic parties in Florida will have an amount obviously in common with the National Party and parties elsewhere. Is there still a distinctive political culture within Florida like basically what I'm asking are Florida Republicans different from other Republicans into Florida Democrats different from other States Democrats? I think when it gets down to it when you're thinking of. Our Florida Latinos for example, are they always kind of leaning? Democrat. Or you know Florida South Florida Latinos are they always leaning Republican as people kind of think a lot of the time because of the cuban-american population I think that a lot of that is changing so at whether whether or not, you're going to see more cuban-americans still voting Republican in the way that they usually do a lot of that is kind of breaking and and being undone because of the younger generation you know really having more of an experience in the US. and seeing the way that their families grew up in thinking about healthcare and climate change as more of priorities to them. So you know I would say that the main difference if there was one is here you can see a lot of distinctive kind of you see mixed political ideologies in families. So I've met even candidates who are you know? Democrats were running now for public office in Florida and their families are different completely different ideology from them. So i. think that that's what's interesting. Right and what makes Florida you know such. Unique and fascinating state is that it's changing all the time and it's changing not just because of the of the new kind of waves of immigrants that are coming in. But also the new generations that are really having a different kind of awareness than the one their parents did. We'll talk more in the second half of the program about how Florida may have changed in the last four years and what it might be like in this election. But Michael just before we do that I, don't like to tempt fate too much by talking about what happened in two thousand when basically an entire parallel history of the twentieth century got chopped off by a margin of a few hundred votes in Florida but. People still talk about that election much in Florida and Walton immense sliding doors moment that was not just for the United States but as it turned out for the entire world, you know, I think that's a great way. Great way of putting it because it certainly was i. mean you know you wouldn't have an Iraq war if it wasn't for five hundred, thirty, seven votes the other way. And I think it's just a great example of. Of you know the way, these these elections and Florida are always one on the margins. Sort of every community matters again at the margins, these things make a huge difference I think. You know Republicans have been much better organized since two thousand and you saw in two thousand with that Brooks brothers riot But but everyone knows it's going to be close and and that really is a place where every vote counts.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
"But neither of them indicated that they would vote for Clinton endorsed Hillary Clinton There is a question about whether having the support of former Republican office holders. Affirmatively helps the Democrat is certainly gives a permission. For disaffected Republicans and Republican leaning independence to cast a vote for Joe Biden. But by the same token there a slight danger at least that alienates more progressive parts of the democratic shunned by saying look how conservative or look how moderate or candidate is that Republican senators are willing to actually endorse them I'm inclined to think that it's not a going to drive a major chain voting behavior but the permission structure for disaffected Republicans is probably more significant than any suppressive effect. It might have on the left part Democratic Coalition, which are generally willing to go along with this ticket anyways and looking at the the idea of trying to persuade voters over when you see the fact that the lawmakers have gone, there's a bunch of. This national security officials as well who have also. Written incredibly erudite article on why Donald Trump is an international threat to peace. When you have such huge voices coming out does that actually make any difference to the secret voter who at the end of the day goes into the bathroom and Ticks Donald? Trump because they think that he's going to inner because he's effectively scared you into thinking that you need to protect you. Well I would I would gently push back on. The secret trump voter I think in most parts of the US. Trump support is pretty overt. It's pretty normalized. Obviously, if you live in a significantly liberal area, you probably aren't going to be particularly vehement or open about your support trump. But if you live in a particularly liberal area, your state is probably going to be going for a Joe Biden. Regardless of what happens elsewhere. anyways. But more to the point I mean I think you could talk to pretty much any American foreign policy hand left or right and be told with varying degrees of resignation Americans don't vote on foreign policy. They don't look to foreign policy and national security voices for advice on how to vote and that's backed up by polling that shows that almost all the key issues that key policies that Americans look to when deciding who to vote for are not foreign policy issues. Or are arguably foreign policy issues like immigration that have significant domestic policy correspondent. So you know certainly it in terms of building a case against all trump in terms of having a sort of. Complete comprehensive list of the issues where you might hope for trump to be replaced. Having people who are theoretically on the same side of the partisan divide him on foreign policy late at case out is helpful. But, those aren't people whose names are recognizable. Outside elite circles for the most part it's not an issue that's going to break through the tremendous level of noise and fury that accompanies political campaign struck a two thousand twenty. So I think it's it's important historical documents and it's important to note that there was a similar letter signed by many of the same people in two thousand sixteen and it did similarly encourage a vote for Hillary Clinton as this one encourages a vote for Joe Biden take parakeets. Thank you very much indeed for joining us on monocle twenty still to come on today's.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
"Where . Can Belarus President Turn Now? ? Thousands of people were back on the streets protesting this weekend still angry at what they believe was a rigged presidential election President Lukashenko who claimed as he returned to power with an eighty percent approval rate responded by flying over the protesters wearing riot gear with a rifle slung from his shoulder. . Well, , drained over is L. Editor of Belarus Anna Leasing at the University of Brain and I'm delighted to say she joins us on the line now Auger a very warm welcome to monocle twenty four. . These absolutely bizarre scenes of President Lukashenko yesterday. . Well. . Yes. . I was actually also quite as to see you know him <hes> banning public with a gun and also his fifteen year old son <hes> campaign him so to say so it's the definitely assigned for me <hes> that he he's kind of knocked children confidence in front of the people who through testing <hes> <hes> by his residence, , and it's also not you know not that Jerry. Addict . from me because the protest is peaceful, , protesters will not trying to receive this residents in the state needs. . said the wall spread the information that there was some attempt to seek the? ? Residency so it's quite an emotional psychological reaction from him. . I would say and will. . Nobody. . that. So . it's also very strong sign that there is now readiness of from from the official from the state site for any kind of luck that you know this new to build coordination committee by Dehaan Oscar and she team is is trying to do initiate and I think everybody most notably <hes> people. . In Belarus itself have been absolutely taken aback by the brutality of the reaction by the the Lauren forces to the protesters and the fact that Alexander Lukashenko was was dressed up in riot gear suggests that he doesn't have anywhere to go other than a violent approach. . Yes I would also I would also expects it. . You know what targeted repressions and they're ready started last week and they continued this week. . So what what would serve now is definitely not base wave of unprecedented repression that we. . Saw Three days and nights after the elections but still there are <hes> targeted repressions and against. . Most active people are also criminal case has been initiated against the newly built coordination committee and people. . People are invited to some talks with KGB officials until also people actually also bill will try to strike there actually threatened. . By the direction openness of the state owned enterprises that they would lose their jobs and so on. . So <hes> <unk> observe already targeted pressure on people, but , this wave is still not to the tide because you know. . So what international reaction was so the state drives, , you know just show from the one handed, , it's not ready for the data from the one hand <hes> there is the rest of. . You know not not to let this protests <unk> spread. . Within the country how much do you think that's what the foreign observers of said about what's been happening in Belarus for the last couple of weeks is actually forming any decision made by Alexander Lukashenko at the moment. . <hes>. . Well I think that it will quite an important aim has been achieved ready and that we actually we have understood that he's not legitimate within the society right within the boat society and I think also problem was that he really did not understand that. . Shortly after the elections or before the elections so and. . Actually. . I think that the reaction was not is at least that. . He and his circles really have the distended. . Okay. . He doesn't have any majority in society, but , it has not led so far to his readiness for dialogue <unk> just in the all the way he kind of supports the security structures in internal, , Misteri Ministry and actually he even gave you know about three hundred medals to those who are actually responsible of for for this incident violence. . So he kinds of stresses that the security two structures military is. . Actually the most important pillar his powerful for now for the moment, , the Steve Kerr show is joining us now he's policy and advocacy. . Directorate. . Freedom from torture and author of St Spirit Steve. . Welcome. . Thanks for joining us. . Hey On monocle twenty, , four Olga a moment ago mentioned the fact that the secret police is still called the KGB I mean, , what does that say about the level of influence at Russia's still has in terms of the way that Belarus's going and whether Russia just going to sit this out. . Yes I mean I either it reflects influence of Russia, , which is August is certainly, , very great or it's just almost bizarre retro element to to better under Lukashenko. . He doesn't mind thinking in those terms I think it is going to be. . So Russia will certainly be an important factor and but at the same time Mosca really doesn't want to be. . Getting, , further involved in in a very direct since that's going to be difficult for Russia as well. . So I think that Lucas. . Is playing a very difficult game. . If he was giving small confessions, , I think he might have some a little bit more success in some homage to blunt things but so far at least the violence <noise> has had absolutely opposite effective people become more and more angry the fear obviously quite rightly <hes> the last Sunday was absolutely crucial. . I would argue that the US huge threats of on ahead of Sunday hoping that people. . Would back off and stay at home and actually it was a big rally than ever. . So not particular face off. . There's no question that Lukashenko loss what happens next we'll still see I'll steve has suggested that Sunday was a pivotal moment some people waiting for what is described as a tipping point when an event causes things to go one way or the other would you say that Sunday was part of that? ? Tipping Point. . Demon this Sunday last Sunday. . To Sunday. . <unk> The Sunday. . Just gone when tens of thousands of people came out onto the streets to set by a threat the first Sunday directly after the elections. . Yes. . I it just completely I mean people never any. . Okay. . What we're talking about batteries and Ballard who's says, , Chris it's not the first Sunday that actions pulses side will have to admit that it also not to the extent that people actually being tortured eating the prisons will have also. . took a beast fag, , but it's for the first very time that such vast majority of people. So . it with their own is is of their families or friends in stone. . So you can imagine how many are nets were the strategy when they're where our seven seven thousand arrests. . So it's it's quite a big part of the country said it's really I would agree it had an opposite effect and it's also for the first time that you know this special. . GRANITZ or gas or a also rubber bullets on there were actually used against own population. . It never existed in the history of Belarus in October election protests, , people widget shocked and I think it was a shock from the both sides because the state net expected to such mass protest before also before three weeks before the elections would be solved by. . About two to five or even six percent of local population came to to railways with <unk> Hannele. . It's also unprecedented <unk> thing was kind of shock from both sides and of course, , people people were also by this eighty percent because nobody really believes that anymore I mean. . People also really did not quite believe that before I, , would say people heading out some kind of feeling that president steelhead had a majority maybe not eighty percent maybe fifty five, , maybe sixty but this feeling was there and this style with completely different. . So quiet in Jersey, , you know quite a big part even I think I would say the majority of people just didn't believe that he actually has any kind of fifty plus and that was the problem that we still have this eighty percents I think people would just. . People were just humiliated by that of course, , activate shortly afterwards by this unprecedented wave refreshing stave when we look to the further history of batteries, , which is being written right now <hes> when considering what sort the former eastern bloc countries of have seen in the last three decades. . When regime ends, , it's generally quite a peaceful affair actually the deleted. . is of removed from office. . This is unlikely to happen here. . Isn't it? ? Well, , I mean, , sometimes it has been an sometimes it hasn't been. . So when I was a journalist working for the independent, , I was the East Europe during the eighty nine revolutions and also join me the fall of Milosevic Milosevic in Serbia and cover dot and there a number of those leaders were ready to use very significant violence and what I'm fascinated by very moved by what was seeing with the courage. . A better as protesters today is to see that they are defined vence in the same ways that work very effectively for example, , in East Germany where people were threatened with extraordinary for someone particular day in Leipzig in. . October nineteen eighty-nine the fact that so many people came out meant regime which had publicly declared its loyalty to force actually back down in Romania I very much. Hope . it weren't turn into remain, , but we do already see that there are splits within Belarus at the riot police remain loyal. . The moment we've seen a number of police units splits off. . We've seen a lot of establishment figures putting off <hes> in the same way as also does something happened in in Ukraine and the Orange Revolution, , and once you see security forces a different security forces splitting away going like enough already as August said, , I mean the eighty percent. . Claim was was absurdly insulin and the degree of the virus even Grayson seen before and I think this is really interesting. . It might end up in huge volumes but I think Lukashenka would lose very very badly that to happen I think it's a regional issue. . How if you like bluntly how crazy you are Milosevic. . For example, , he survived on one occasion ninety seven by giving some concessions and then re clamping down and people just got tired and went back when you use real violence I think it's really difficult. . It was a great book written by Richard couple the Polish off I was written about the Iranian revolution. Charlotte. . . Charlotte's but very much reflected his own country Poland which forty years ago. . This month <hes> solidarity <hes> kind of a huge opposition movement didn't call itself opposition challenge the regime and unthinkable circumstances laying Brezhnev for the very reactionary Russian leader was still in power. . They managed to become successful and he said the moment where people stand in front of eastern threatens violence, , the pre curry signing backstops, , and instead someone stands there and doesn't back down he said, , this is where the revolution begins, , and after that in effect is the exact the precipice. . If you're to violence, , you make people more angry if you start making concessions than people go. . We have lost our fear and in a sense the certain moment difficult to prediction events but describable. . There is no way back to the regime and it still seems a little bit early to say but I think it's very, , very difficult to see how Lukashenko come back from this. . If he steps back more gently than, , of course, , it will be peaceful. . The protests have been fun tastic peaceful and very, , very consciously so far the extended even cleaning up rubbish because I really vary consciously very civic. . Minded. . So he might just go off and disappear off to Russia for example, , <hes> and as it will live happily ever after but he tries to bring out all of the guns. . Then I think you know all bets are off but I don't think it was a good ending for him whichever way it goes Steve Crozier and Elga agenda over there. . Thank you for joining us on monocle twenty four.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"Kristen Let's talk about what Kamala Harris brings to this Democratic ticket. Before she dropped out in December, and that was before any of the primaries. A national poll have support for Harris among all Democrats as you can see there a 3% Support among women at 4% and support among blocks at 5%. So why does the Biden campaign? Why should we all think that she is going to Appeal to and win the support of those voters. I think the idea is that she represents a safe pick. Now. It's a strange time we're living in where a progressive senator from California is. A safe pick. But I define safe is being she does not really lose you or gain you many votes on net. I think in the Democratic coalition, they're primarily motivated by wanting to see Trump unseated. So as long as someone who was not terribly risky was chosen, they would still be energized. You are hearing Stories of in particular the South Asian community being very excited. Remember Kamala Harris is is African American. She's also of Indian descent. And so there are some folks that are very energized at the same time. If you don't like Camilla Harris, you were probably not voting for Joe Biden to begin with. So that's why I believe she represents a quote unquote safe pick. Jason Since Biden picked Paris is his running mate. President Trump has called her angry. He's called her nasty, and as we have pointed out earlier in the program, he has failed to dismiss the claim that she's Ineligible T run for vice president. Does the president run the risk in his attacks on Harris off actually driving some of those voters? I was just talking about with Christian Into the Biden Harris camp..
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Inside Europe
"But the streets may soon be the only place where there is space for real debate. Besides the new culture law the prime minister's fetus fetus and it's Christian Democratic Coalition partners have also rushed through legislation which your position has developed a muscle law it seeks to eliminate protest. I inside parliament for example fines for legislatures. Who Don't towed align have been increased from six months salary to twelve months and and suspensions have been increased from nine parliamentary sessions to a whopping sixty the European as expressed concern over the democratic credentials chill so Hungary a member state? But for now it remains to Hungarians themselves to show their discontent with the rapid changes. Stefan boss deal you Budapest. And I'm Keith Walker in Bonn you're listening to inside Europe breath in Greenland. The winters are long long and dark and the becomes difficult to travel because the ice closes in perhaps unsurprisingly people look forward to Christmas with special relish actually burn has more on the Norwegian Christmas celebrations. You have McKay is the world's most northerly capital city and today almost all of its seventeen thousand inhabitants have gathered around.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Inside Europe
"But the streets may soon be the only place where there is space for real debate. Besides the new culture law the prime minister's fetus deduce and it's Christian Democratic Coalition partners have also rushed through legislation which your position has developed a muscle law it seeks to eliminate protest. I inside parliament for example fines for legislatures. Who Don't towed align have been increased from six months salary to twelve months and and suspensions have been increased from nine parliamentary sessions to a whopping sixty the European as expressed concern over the democratic credentials chill so Hungary a member state? But for now it remains to Hungarians themselves to show their discontent with the rapid changes. Stefan boss deal you Budapest. And I'm Keith Walker in Bonn you're listening to inside Europe breath in Greenland. The winters are long long and dark and the becomes difficult to travel because the ice closes in perhaps unsurprisingly people look forward to Christmas with special relish actually burn has more on the Norwegian Christmas celebrations. You have McKay is the world's most northerly capital city and today almost all of its seventeen thousand inhabitants have gathered around.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Anderson Cooper 360
"Every election cycle people have talked about getting out young people to vote and it it does raise up some years are better than others but is that what the Democrats should be focused on because you hear that a lot from Bernie Sanders about mobilizing young some people. Oh absolutely the millennial generation is the biggest generation in American history and so far. It's moved mostly to the left. Two Republican Republicans are losing these people if you can get the young people out to vote along with the two other groups in the Democratic Coalition the Obama Coalition you get women out to vote and you got people of Color Devote coarser SM- overlap in that group those groups you win the election. Does it just talking about Obama the way he was talking about last night. Does that hurt. Does that send a message to the the Obama Coalition. I think it's a mistake. I think it's a serious mistake. Listen when Bill Clinton left office <hes> he had a very substantial economic record was positive record but they democrats that year <hes> Gore and others ran away from the Clinton record and economics they just abandoned that argument and they also White House <hes> and now here comes Obama the Democrats have a chance to to make a very powerful argument they should not completely see economic growth <hes> and give all the credit trump. The argument could be listened when President Obama got inherited the White House from the Republicans. We were in a near catastrophe. We were near a depression one third chance of having a depression by the time Obama left the economy was on the beginnings of the longest <hes> long growth period in American Eric in history that left us and now we're we're facing up you know if you WanNa go forward and have a diverse society inclusive society go for the kind of economic growth and build on what Obama had yes you can criticize but the other thing one of the lesson when you criticize criticize the record criticize the ideas ideas. Don't make it personal and what was happening less than a debate was too often you had a sense. It was getting very person. Yes I just want to say I wanna go back to something I do not believe chief that Democratic voters in the general are going to stay home because someone on the debate stage called into question whether Obama could've done something differently finally with immigration. I think that that's a false narrative and I think we should stop using Republican talking point..
"democratic coalition" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"Defeated at American national security interest require continued commitment to our mission there. Senator your one of forty three Republicans in the Senate who voted for the McConnell amendment opposing the president's announced policy. You say that we can't and using your fries bug out of Syria and to do so would be quote, very unwise policy. So I can't tell you how many times they came on shows like this after President Obama decided to bug out of Iraq precipitously. And so that ISIS was able to rise from the thoroughly defeated ashes of Al Qaeda in Iraq. And I don't want to be making the same statements six months from now that we bugged out of Syria on wisely, and that Eissa who has reemerged from the defeated ISIS or ashes of ISIS in Syria. We met a bipartisan group of senators met with the co chair of the Syrian democratic coalition miss Ahmed. And she had a very compelling case to me they've got about sixty thousand fighters they represent about four million Syrians about two and a half million Kurds and about a million a half Christians, and they want democracy. They want peace, and she made it very strong case of just having American military people present not even involved in the fighting, but is invited. Does what he goes a great deal toward providing this piece. And stability for that part of Syria. And I think just be tragic if we bugged out left the Kurds who by large down, the fighting, a defeated the ISIS caliphate the territory of caliphate nicest, if we just abandon them to to the mercies, and let's I'm use that term loosely of Russia in Iran and possibly Turkey. It would just be unconscionable. So so again, I Republican Sanders was saying very strong signal to the president. We don't want to see that happen. I hope he is listening. So he he should be listening. When there were forty three of the fifty three Republicans senators voted against this policy, which raises the question how serious is split is there between the Senate Republicans and the president on the Trump foreign policy. Well, as it relates to pulling out of Syria. There's there's pretty serious split, hopefully, the president because when he came to send wants us was talking about, you know, we're still going to defeat ISIS and their airbases from Iraq. We can still continue these missions. So I'm not on the ground there. I don't know all military assets. But it's a very bad sign secretary Mattis resigns Brett mcgurk are on there who had few vices also resigned because they simply can't carry out this policy. These are people that are intimately knowledgeable of the conditions on the ground of our allies there, and they simply couldn't in good conscience. Staying in office. That's pretty bad side. I hope the president is listening to those people as well. Well, talking about people who are knowledgeable on the ground. We saw a remarkable split this week between the president and his own Intel chase on a number of world hotspots while the president sentence the summit with Kim Jong said that North Korea is no longer a nuclear threat. Here was the testimony this week by the director of national intelligence, Dan Coats. We currently assess that North Korea will seek to retain its WMD capabilities in his unlikely to completely give up its nuclear weapons production capabilities because it's leaders ultimately view nuclear weapons as critical to regime survival and here are the president and director coats on the threat from ISIS. We've.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on Progressive Talk 1350 AM
"Norm. Hey, how's it going? Thanks gone regarding you, ask caller. I just have one thing to say one standard evenly applied to him. I like that. It's I I'm familiar with that go ahead. I do. Things if I may I mea culpa correction, and then I have kind of a monkey wrench to throw in the subject of the day. So start off with my knee COPA. We've got off the phone Tuesday night after delivering my mic quantitative theory of folks news lying. I was thinking this is pretty cool. It's fun normal laughing. We're having a good time. But some didn't feel right in the more. I thought about it the more bug me. And then I realized I did my math wrong. Thousand divided by six not three hundred thirty three and a half. Down sixty six and sue thirds, which made sense because I was thinking there's no way you can't like you can't you can lie less than three hundred and fifty men or magnitude on folk quote, unquote news. Margaret hat when I figured that out. But anyway, man. Yeah. Go ahead. Yeah. It was my my nasty, and it was it was an ugly. One brutal. One regarding the for a monkey wrench listening to another progressive host on the way into work this morning. He had a guest on from the democratic caucus, excuse me democratic coalition dot org. And this this young gentleman was reporter had a report that he had spoken with a couple of Republican operatives who he of course, he didn't they city promised him. He would name him them. But they told him that even if. Staying got his his his money is five billion or whatever he was probably was not going to reopen. The almost definitely wouldn't reopen the government. He said these guys told them he likes to control too much.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on News 96.5 WDBO
"But e w Erickson and on periscope, but e w Erickson W E R, I C K S O N back to the phones we go. Let's see Jerry in Oklahoma. You're up next. Welcome. Thank you, sir. Appreciate you. Stand up for the trees. Thank you. You're welcome. Hey, I just wanted to say to me presented his case. And a good reason we need border protection. Schumer. I don't care about Americans. They just care about their politics. And it's very saddening to me. But they they they do that. The there's a segment of the American population, they truly care about and that is the Hispanic voters who are registered to vote and don't vote, and they're convinced that if they demagogue Trump on this issue, then convinced them that he's demagoguing the border issue that they'll suddenly start voting and become democratic voters. The Democrats know they've got problems of the democratic coalition and they're trying to escalate this issue for Hispanic voters. They really think it plays. Well with Hispanic voters. Here's a problem going their thinking, and that's the the Hispanic voters who can vote they and their families came here legally and a lot of those voters actually don't favor illegal immigration. They take it seriously as well. And a lot of those who aren't citizens who the Democrats want to become citizens, many of them don't even want to become citizens. They're sending money back to central and South America, supporting families who were there. The other children who they came came with them. So them do want to be citizens. And I really do think the Democrats are missing. A real opportunity here to improve lives because they want to demagogue the issue if you secure the border. I am firmly convinced that the conversation changes because there is a lot of thinking right now, the among Republicans if you did comprehensive immigration reform without securing the border. I we would see a new flood of illegal immigrants trying to get across the border. So they could come up with forged paperwork and say I've been here for thirty years. I'm grandfathered in you. You know that thinking is out there. There's a dynamic out there that would change dramatically if we secured the border, and it is shocking to me, the Democrats are not committed to securing the border despite with homeland security says despite what Barack Obama's homeland security said, I'm.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on WSB-AM
"Talk also streaming live on YouTube. But e w Erickson and on skill, but e w Erickson W E R, I C K S O N back to the phones we go. Let's see Jerry and Oklahoma. You're up next. Welcome. Thank you, sir. I appreciate you for the trees. Thank you. You're welcome. Hey, I just want to say to me presented his case. And a good reason and we need border protection. Schumer. To me. Hear about Americans. They just care about their politics. And it's very saddening to me. They they do that. There's a segment of the American population they truly care about. And that is the Hispanic voters who are registered to vote and don't vote in their convinced that if they demagogue Trump on this issue, then convinced them that he's demagoguing the border issue that they'll suddenly start voting and become democratic voters. The Democrats know they've got problems of the democratic coalition and they're trying to escalate this issue for Hispanic voters. They really think it plays. Well with Hispanic voters. Here's a problem during their thinking, and that's the the Hispanic voters who can vote they and their families came here legally and a lot of those voters actually don't favor illegal immigration. They take it seriously as well. And a lot of those who aren't citizens who the Democrats wanted to become citizens, many of them don't even want to become citizens. They're sending money back to central and South America, supporting families who were there other children who they came came with them. Some of them do want to be citizens. And I I really do think the Democrats are missing a real operative. Not here to improve lives because they want to demagogue the issue if you secure the border. I am firmly convinced that the conversation changes because there is a lot of thinking right now among Republicans if you did comprehensive immigration reform without screw the border. I we would see a new flood of illegal immigrants trying to cross the border. So they could come up with forged paperwork and say I've been here for thirty years. I'm grandfathered in you. You know that thinking is out there. There is a dynamic out there that would change dramatically if we secured the border, and it is shocking to me, the Democrats are not committed to securing the border despite with homeland security says despite what Barack Obama's homeland.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on The Ezra Klein Show
"And it's also the reason why Fox News spends all this time trying to scare the shit out of old white people by telling them, you know, about the caravan or by telling them that liberals wanna take away Christmas or by telling them that the country is demographically changing, and they don't recognize. Anymore? There is a wrote about this today. But why people remain a really essential part of the democratic coalition. But the other groups that are a part of the democratic coalition have almost no presence in the Republican coalition. So those so Republicans can essentially denigrate the democratic base in a way that Democrats simply cannot reciprocate because they still need those people in those Republican leaning groups to vote for them. And so, but we never talk about that kind of that re re social restriction on speech as political correctness because it is simply a reflection of the preferences of the long term demographic majority in America. And so it just seems normal to us. It's like noticing that the sky is blue I'll think that's a really good way of putting that I don't wanna go back for a minute into the debate about language because of the you're just making me think about is when I was in junior high there became a fad in my high school of using the word Kaik as a synonym for cheap. So like you. Hiked me out of something. And for people who don't know this Kaik is a let's say politically incorrect term for Jewish people. And this was you know, you could call kids being at medical you. Call kids being transgressive like I'm I'm happy to take. Either interpretation these are twelve year olds. But that went away. Right. You can't do that at least in normal company when you're an adult in this country. And I don't think we have a good language for talking about the process by which that happens because we've kind of diminished the term offensive, you know, with all this talk of snowflakes and everything else, we have protected speech in America. We've constitutionally protected speech, but speech is not socially free. It's never been socially free. And it's really never been socially free for everyone or on anything. And it feels to me that all of us may be. But actually in particular, the left has lost a language or doesn't quite know. How to talk in an affirmative way that part. Of building a decent society is having a thoughtful conversation about what kind of speech is decent like what kind of speeches courteous, like what kind of speech is kind. And I think there's some problem with that. Like political correctness has become like this word that it's expanded. I don't think people have like a good alternative description for what they're trying to do. And like an ability to connect it back to a lineage that is like something we've always been doing in this country, which is saying like, you know, maybe calling juice cakes. That's that's a bad thing. And we shouldn't do it. I actually think that concept you're looking for is respect like..
"democratic coalition" Discussed on 1947: The Meet the Press Podcast
"But the Republicans do have a common belief system, maybe some culture issues, clearly when you look at Kevin on immigration is being the drivers there the democratic coalition is clearly equal to the Republican coalition. But it's, but it's harder to it's harder to figure out where to win states with it. Yeah. And that's why even carrying about of a good point with these districts in the house. Democrats won by hitting singles, right? They just hit a bunch of singles immu trying to think what was the big dynamic win for Democrats. There wasn't one like. That was the big shot. Island. And that's that's nice. But you know, there are a lot of Democrats are disappointed. But did they try to hit home runs? They tried to go into Florida and take that governorship back. They didn't do it. They tried to go into Georgia push play offense and Georgia play offense in Texas. They didn't do that either. And then you kind of look at you know, they're swinging and missing on these big with them. It's gonna be a demoralizing for some Democrats. I think they're looking at the schedule or looking at the results, even if they were successful in hitting a bunch of these singles, you know, where that coalition though, got kind of close is the Beto where grace, right? He came within about three points of Ted Cruz that was a lot better than a lot of forecasters thought, and that's a coalition of affluent progressive whites in suburban areas, plus Latinos, plus African Americans it's kind of the closest thing that looks like that coalition and it came up short, but it came up short Trumpy state. All right. We're going to jump to this because he he isn't going to be others are going to bring this up that oh for president. I mean, you know, we joked that if he lost he'd do his concession speech into Boyne. And but look I've been a skeptic. He came within three this parties looking for new faces..
"democratic coalition" Discussed on The Ezra Klein Show
"Her professional lives working for that movement working for that party end and its philly it it is the tunisians uh the democrat party is a coalition of interest groups um and precisely because it's a coalition of interest groups there is some space for critical thinking to say hey wait a second that doesn't make sense i mean them actually in a way among the interest groups as policy walks is not a very powerful interest group but but it it could play a role because it's a at least some of the some of the disparate interest groups that make up the democratic coalition are going to listen to what people like you or i have to say uh and then if you ask a wire the party's so different than i would say that has a lot to do with a with money with financing um there are democratic leaning billionaires but they're not uh the sole or you know they're not the dominant source of support uh republican party that dr there are small too owners whatever but the but a lot of that comes a lot of the it is driven by uh a small number of very wealthy people and what that does is it creates among other things career incentives uh you know we have the term the wink wink not welfare if you are good loyal uh conservative you can get into congress may be uh and uh if you lose it won't be because probably because you're defeat in in the general election but because for primary challenger who was even more ideologically pure than you are but even if you do could lose uh then there's a job at a think tank or a a you know a commentary job on fox news.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on The Andrew Klavan Show
"The accomplice so i mean we're we're watching a slaughter in america or or political leaders doing anything at all to stop it first the second amendment in this case has nullified the right to live for many people in this church and i think our national discussion as to happen it's not too you know or where we constantly run away from it but werner be keep doing this until we have that is what i arrived to congress to here i've been talking about limiting magazine capacity and going and other end can probably reporter pit here it may not prevented certainly the damage would diminish greatly if we had it made changes to our grand laws fundamentally a problem in america and it's not going to fix every shooting nursery argument they may well seatbelts won't stop every car for touting either and we can't get even the congress to give us onesentence to say that you can't pop star so there's a guy named check cannon he runs a something called the democratic coalition against trump or something like this he claims to be the biggest arm of the resistance after the new york city terrorist attack where the is islamist ran down people in lower manhattan when trump but talked about the diversity visa lottery programme this guy scott yes i'm sorry scott work in his guy at that site chickens guy tweeted that who reached tweeted this scott work in his the guy from this democratic resistance he said it's the morning after the nyc terrorist attack and trump's already politicizing it like the disgusting and deranged little boy he is and then of course today same guy scott working yes ongoing to politicize the blank out of the mass murder of twenty seven twenty innocent people in texas a deal with it all right i'll i'll deal with that you're you're scum now you're dealt with that's the thank you very much.
"democratic coalition" Discussed on WSJ Opinion: Potomac Watch
"The the if you cut corporation taxes you are essentially that that is going to go to shareholders who many of whom are in the one percent so you can define the one percent however you want now it happens that there's a lot of economic evidence that shows that when you cut corporate taxes that goes to push workers in the form of higher compensation because of investments in increasing work approximate productivity but is is is that debate going to persuade chuck schumer to come around to a twenty percent corporate tax rate i don't think so i think the most they get out of the democrats may be 28 down from 35 if that yeah i i think the larger point is one you made earlier it's important to have bills go through in a bipartisan basis that that does mean 5050 but with the few votes from the other side to make them less brittle the inches the way obamacare became great became this thing but what i think people don't realize is is something you were saying earlier the key to that for republicans they want this as well to they don't want just a republican bill the keita that is it's not it's not going to happen until republicans confers prove they can passed off without the democrats the democrats are in a weak state now they know that all they have his anti trump feeling they would like to shows but they're not going to budge until they realized to train can go without him and that's why i think these the republican disunity in congress where the perfect is the enemy of the good ease is is nancy pelosi chuck schumer empowering act because if the republicans could come together improve we can do some of these things then you put pressure on the democratic coalition be much harder for chuck schumer nancy pelosi to hold older people and kim just illustrate that point of a scene from last week's meeting at the white house with the president and the the leadership of both parties uh you've been told that paul ryan uh spoke up and said i want an eighteen month extension of the debt ceiling.