20 Episode results for "David Shore"

#44 HOW TO CONDUCT AN INTERVIEW with improviser, host & podcaster David Shore

Talk About Talk

31:00 min | 1 year ago

#44 HOW TO CONDUCT AN INTERVIEW with improviser, host & podcaster David Shore

"Let's do this. Let's talk about talk. Well HELLO THERE. Talk about talk listeners. On Your communication coach Dr Andrea Wojnowski. Please call me Andrea. Thanks for listening. Talk about talk is where you can learn to communicate more effectively so you can do better at work and improve your relationships with everyone around you if you go to talk about. Talk Dot Com. You can see the full archive of all the communication skills topics that we've covered in both the podcasts and the email blogs before we get into today's topic of conducting interviews. I WANNA clarify the difference between the talk about talk podcast and the email blog. I WanNa make this really clear based on a conversation. I had recently when I was out with friends who also happen to be podcast listeners. Here's the thing the talk about talk. Podcast IS BI weekly every second week the email blog is weekly so with the email blog. You'll get communication coaching for me. Once a week yes. I introduced the biweekly podcast and provide some fun behind the scenes stuff related to the podcast but I also cover totally separate topics that we haven't covered it all in the podcast. For example recently the email blog has covered topics such as the introvert and extrovert scale the generations. Such as boomers and millennials and how to properly conduct an introduction. These are a few of the topics that have only been covered in the email blog. So if you only listened to the podcast and you aren't subscribe to the email blog you're missing out on half the learnings you can sign up easily on the talk about talk dot com website or you can email me directly at Andrea at talk about talk dot Com. And I'll sign you up okay enough about that. Let's get into this. Today's episode is focused on the skill of conducting interviews. As in you being the one who's asking the questions it could be a job interview and information seeking interview a journalistic interview or perhaps the interview is for entertainment purposes like an interview that's presented as written article a live interview on stage or a podcast interview in the future. We'll also have an episode about being on the other side of the desk how to rocket in a job interview being the one who's interviewed but today we focus on conducting interviews our guest expert. Today is Mr David shore for those of you who subscribed to the talk about talk email blog. You may recall last year. I was interviewed on stage. A live Improv. Show here in Toronto called monkey toast not something you do every day right well not me but thanks in large part to David. It was an incredibly positive experience so I asked David if I could interview him about how to successfully conduct an interview and here. We are in this episode. You'll learn many things you'll learn about honing your interviewing skills. There is no magic bullet. It takes time in practice even the most skilled interviewers like say the HR expert in your firm. Who Conduct job interviews or famous interviewers. Like podcast. Tim Ferriss or the late night. Tv show hosts none of them. Were born instantly. Skilled at interviewing in fact in Tim Fares Podcast. He frequently talks about his. Early interview are cringe-worthy. He also mentioned how the successful people that he interviews all put their pants on one leg at a time and they all experienced multiple failures prior to their success including himself. That reminds me. We also talk. About how some of the best interviewers are not the best humans while all. Great interviewers are charming. When they're interviewing think Oprah Winfrey think Marc Maron think Matt Lauer or jeon go messy. I could go on. They're all charming during the interviews. Aren't they but clearly not? All of them are good humans. Okay back to honing our interview skills. It takes time it takes practice. There are no shortcuts except for this one thing that our guest expert David shore suggests if you take the time to critically watch or listen to tape of yourself or even others conducting interviews. You can probably accelerate your interview skill development in this episode. You'll also learn how to prepare for an interview including the importance of doing research about your interviewee tips. On how and why to conduct pre interviews and of course rating your interview script. Then there's how to make the interviewee comfortable before and during the interview and other tips for during the interview including listening and engaging but also not hesitating to take a few seconds to look down to reference your interview script and other tips such as making sure that the focus is on the interviewee and what to do when you're interviewee is nervous. Or they're not talkative and then there's the types of questions that work. Well let me tell you this. David's advice about the yes. No question just might surprise you. David also provides me some advice in terms of my interviewing skills. So there's lots of valuable learnings here for us in this interview as always you can easily access the summary or the details of this podcast by going to talk about talk dot com clicking on podcasts and then show notes. I have to tell you something quickly. I was listening to a podcast. This week hosted by one of my favorite podcasters and he actually said. There's lots of detail in this episode. So you might. WanNa go get a paper and a pen and I thought No how `bout you summarize it for me and that is exactly why I create these shows for you and I've heard from several listeners. That they appreciate these show notes so keep doing whatever. You're doing driving walking housework. Whatever you can listen and learn at the same time and then later you can go to the show notes on talk about talk website to reference. Whatever it is you need now. Let me introduce our guest expert David Shore and then we'll get into the interview. David is an improviser. A comedy writer and Improv Instructor. A celebrity interviewer a podcast and an actor. He's the artistic and executive director of a Canadian Comedy Award. Winning show called Monkey. Toast the improvise talk show. This is the show where he interviewed me on stage. If you're curious you can check out monkey toast at Monkey. Toast Dot Com David's also the producer and host of the panel show where they bring together to real journalists and to improvisers to talk about politics and real world issues. The panel show is recorded in front of a live studio audience and then also released as podcast. David's also served as a producer host of alumnus of the second city main stage and the West as a program consultant for BBC comedy and as a writer for Reader's Digest. He's also taught Improv in the UK at the Second City Training Center and at the bad dog theatre here in Toronto as you can see. David's interviewing experience is extensive. He's conducted interviews that appeared in print. He's conducted live interviews on stage and he's conducted interviews. That are edited for podcast. So here I am interviewing the interviewer about interviewing. Thank you David. So much for joining us to talk about interviewing beer. I love your artwork by step by the way soon. Especially if you've been so gracious and patient with me as I'm trying to set up my audio equipment the listeners don't know this because my audio equipment wasn't working but I was having major problems recording and David was incredibly patient and he told me that it wasn't bothering him at all. I've on your end of it so I don't know you're on my show monkey coast and we were recording it for podcast which we decided not to do is very difficult to record a live comedy show particularly that has live music and we had nights where some of the equipment wasn't working and we have to open the door because we have a big crowd and it was. It was a nightmare and then even with my other podcast panel show subjects had radio interference from a cell phone so this is a new one that I hadn't heard of radio interference from cellphones. Yeah early. It's not uncommon pending on the venue depending on the equipment. So why don't you share with the audience? Some some of the types of interviews that you've done and if we want we could we could get into equipment malfunctions sure I'm an improviser by trade which people like. What's that I I guess people would say? I'm a comedian but I don't do standup. I did what I was in high school. I TRAIN RISER. Out in. La at the Improv Olympic and then came to Toronto with the second city of the main stage there or about eighteen months. And then when I left I started my own show monkey toast. Which was it Improv. Show at it morphed into a talk show when CBC Radio Got Vall and so they trained taught me how to interview people and we worked with them for about a year. We kept it as a talk show through that I've got to. I mean that's how I met you. You were guest on the show interesting people and and through that as well for a while. I did celebrity interviews. Reader's Digest Canada We did a corporate show for them and they loved it so you were interviewing celebrities. I did I interviewed William Shatner. I they called the payday she goes. We'd love it if you Dave Thomas. Setv for our comedy issue. I'm like okay. She's like we'll pay you okay. Okay because like you want to pay me to interview one of the people I idolize growing up We had to do over the phone that he was great. They loved the interview and said Hey. Do you want to do more of these like yeah? Why wouldn't I WANNA be published in a magazine to pay as well as read by million people in Canada so I gave them a list of people with Don rickles? I think was at Bobby Orr. That's hilarious but they were like it has to be said we'd like interviewing Liam Shattner if we send you till eight interview. Who Else can you interview? They're just saying. Do One every time some of you may have heard by David. Shaw going. That name sounds familiar. That's because there's a very famous. Dave shore he's created the TV show house and the Gupta. Right and I know him. We know each other's from London Ontario is Canadian. As well I had a seder. What's with in Los Angeles so I said what about David Short? He just won the emmy for house named like the idea of David. Short Dave Chore. Yeah I had a phone number email address and contacted his wife. Of course we remember you. I'll give you not remember the other two chore. Why would you say no to beat him? Viewed by Digest. Nine billion people are gonna read set especially when it's someone that has your name. Yeah it was really an interview actually was pretty funny. So you're interviewing people for magazines. And then now you're interviewing people on stage and it's live and then you're also interviewing people for podcasts which can be edited so I have so many questions about yes. Let's start with at a basic level. How are those different legal? I haven't done a print one in a long time. I mean the Reader's digest it. I do an hour interview. And then I would have to transcribe it and then give me about twenty pages and they will cut it down to maybe a page or three quarters of the page. William Shatner's was titled Space Cowboy or something like that because he he has ranch and is it's really horses that I think he had some charities of all kids and getting them onto horses and stuff and with David Shore. We talked about his background in the fact that now that he's showing the arrogant unsuccessful. Show Alex emails directed him so asked to be at a podcast. That guy was him. Actors will contact be. What House was on? I got Fan mail sent to my agents. Because I'm an actor as well so I wouldn't things I asked him was like. Have you ever been mistaken for ever contacted? That's a great question to ask him. Eddie said Yeah I once got a call from a guy at. He's called we're talking and he's like. This is the way by Fred John. Talk jobs like you're you're not you're not the day shore and it was a friend of mine. John Wolf Krebs on Jimmy Kimmel namedrop Ed. He called the wrong David Shore. So I WANNA go back a little bit too interviewing skills earlier on here. You said that. Cbc taught you to interview. Can you share with the listeners? A few of the things that maybe you remember from back then that they tightly don't because it's a long tell you much. Forget the name of the gentlemen met with and he played tapes from interviews and he would say you see why that was bad at a big thing was do you think. This'll ring down the government. Yes that's a bad question. Anything that gives you a yes or no answers about question is let's you follow it up with why so open ended questions is kind of lake. I don't know the low hanging fruit for the types of questions to ask right. It's a we don't WANNA ASK. Yes or no question. What you're you're you will typically get a yes or no answer particularly if the person you're interviewing nervous the most important thing is you're giving someone is to have them relax like I'm not a journalist. I'm not like I told you before the show I asked you a question and you realize auto won't talk about this to say to talk about And I'm going to move on and it you know it's a comedy and I want them to be comfort. I kept telling you is wanting to be comfortable. You just just talking to me. Yep that's remember. We spoke on the phone yesterday before the interview. I just wanted to be comfortable just talking all guide you and but that to me is the most born. Thank you have to? You have to make the person comfortable and then a conversation like you want to be engaged. I need to listen to you. I OVER PREPARE. Reader's digest dwell. I think what I interviewed William Shatner in two of his books and I'd seen all star Trek Because I'd seen all star Trekkie Gut. It was yeah but not like normally cost you but some but I also got some videos. Dvd's from the library where he interviews. There was one with him and Leonard. Nimoy our interview each other. It's there's valuable information on that because I I wouldn't well prepared dog I with hit with most people for once. I knew the answer to question but at the same time you have to be able to go off the cuff so I was just going to say in. Almost any context of interviewing could be for journalists trying to get information for a story. Yeah it could be for entertainment purposes. It could be a job interview. I heard you say a couple times. The most important thing is to make the interviewee relax and to feel comfortable. So let's talk about when the interviewee is not relaxed or they don't appear to be comfortable. Do you have any stories or advice about that? Why I've had a few guests. I think over the years I could. Fake A who've been doing monkey does seventeen years. I can think of three guests who were horrible. I'm not GONNA name it. No don't do that but they didn't want to talk to them. Didn't WanNA talk. What am I said? So you've got a new book coming out about hockey. I tell us but he was just a book. Wow I never thinking you're literally also themselves. How's that serving their own interest to sell more books? I don't know but what was going on. Was he nervous no I have? I don't know but after the show there was a review or they're like a journalist. You know I'd say well. That was hard to tell me because I had to answer all questions demand so it probably depends on the person's personality in terms of getting them to talk but I like the idea. Generally we would advise against leading questions or helping answer the question but sometimes people just need a little prop up right. Yeah and that's rare like like that's three people. I can think of in seventeen years typically if I know someone is quiet. I don't WanNa booked him as a guest to interview right. So I did do that. I had an old David. Roddy musician in a band that was favorable known at the time at. I've ever to lead singer came. You can't believe you talked because he's really quite a realized because we would hang out in the backyard and have beers quite talkative but then but he has. He's known as being a quite STOIC guy interview it's like Oh yeah you are quite a short answers that I'm sure that some people are good with one on one right and then yet if they're in a room or in front of a mic microphone. It's completely different story. No for sure. And that's it it's just learning and you'RE GONNA make anything. You'RE GONNA make mistakes. We were talking before start recording. It took me a year to good interviews. It's a skill are the problem. Western societies when you watch filmer. Tv instantly good. Something on the show montage takes ten seconds. It's like well. I remember when Jimmy Fallon started on the tonight show and I thought he's terrible editor because he never done it before. Yeah but he's quite good at it now to name names but there are some people on TV on late night. That I think very highly of that are horrible interviewers. Well it's it's a different skilled. Embiid is funny. And it's and you know if you're asked me who by favorite interviewers I love Seth Meyers and Colbert and I watch both the comedy clips from their shows and I will watch certain guests. I want to see. But I don't even I watched letterman every day. I tape letterman every day. But it was. It wasn't for the interview with the comedy. It's a different skill totally. Yeah totally different skill and you can do both. Oh I care that's like I think part of being good viewing summit. It's not about me. It's about them. Loose show is about you. Show is not about me and since my shows commish all interject and I know there's certain times words I can say this right. Now get a huge laugh and sometimes I'm feeling particularly funny and that's what you wanted to be. You want to be a conversation but the same time I don't want overpower the I don't want to dominate it. Unless somebody's super shine doesn't WanNa talk in the in in the context of alive Improv comedy show. You're thinking well. The audience just wants to be entertained right. If you're an investigative journalist and you're they're being paid to get information from someone in they refused. That's tough yeah thank you thinking. The third context is a job interview. The person's not talking while they're not getting they're not getting a job and it's funny because you know when you ask sure and then you talk about job interviews like. I can't remember the last time John Addition for things. Which is I think worse. That's interview tob. It's tough but I haven't been in a job in your long time and I think the older you get the more it's like it's like data is like a job interview true right and when I moved back through start dating again and I thought I'm just me not gonNA pretend anything because if you don't like me and I don't you. What is the port? Exactly wasting your time. I've been in a bad marriage. Been about relationships been good relationships and it's like good relations for people who who who loved me for WHO. I was more trying to change me and and it's just like I'm going to be me. I don't WanNa three months in you find out really you and I've heard that exact advice which is tough to do also but for job interview. Yeah one of my recent guests suggested creating a sixty second infomercial about yourself. That is totally honest your capabilities and your goals. Yeah and making sure that if you're in a job interview that you're holding true to your personal sixty second infomercial is. Kinda the same thing when you're dating. Who Do you think are the best interviewers that you listen to or read or observed? Yeah it's funny because you sent me an email Saco. This of course asked you know who aren't bessinger viewers and unfortunately to the people that I used to really love watch interviews. They were exposed during me to Really Yeah Charlie Rose L. K. To Love Charlie rose and tabs smiley who illiterate a google search. There's a taped up. He did stuff to okay so I have to tell you this. Then one of the best interviews I ever saw in my life. In fact I got my kids to watch it was John Gomez. She Sang Carrie Fisher phenomenal. And what a guy so I told you I wanted to ask you. What are some of the things you do in advance of an interview and we've talked about it a little bit right like you'd like to talk to the person that you're going to interview to see if there's anything? I don't we saw usually through email back in the early days. The show somebody would do a pre interview. Yep what do you think about pre interviews? It makes sense. I mean he does it. Well if you're if you took a late night. Tv show you'd he'd have something to talk. You're trying to make people laugh. Engage them and coming on to promote something treated and talk with that. He just can't talk about that. Eat Eat some stories. All email people saying anything particularly. Do WanNa talk about or don't want to talk about because there might be something I want to talk about a Jeb. Whalen and said. Just don't ask me about how we all met because I've been asked that today so I asked her on the show when you do press in the states. What's the one question that you're sick of question so I thought I'd put it that way? You know? Because as she has her origin story was told it so many times. And I get that like Dave. Thomas went interviewed him. Had No issue telling me about how Bob Doug McKenzie came about. I could hear the joy in his voice Had to be a phone interview but he knows you retelling store. So what do you WanNa talk about? What you do you not want to talk about. What's off limits? And then I I love your also your point about. Do you have any great stories? Don't tell me the story you don't want. Should I ask you about. And I use the Hampshire and other times people are like. How did you know this? And I'm like a lot of it's BEC- TITA. I'll do research adding on. The person might a lot of information on the line. Like if they're an author all probably get their book Linda Acquaint. I bought her last book. We talked about that everyone and then reading ahead of books recently from people that I'm interviewing and I love it I'm reading. I'm reading it more. I don't I wouldn't say I'm reading it more intensely because I generally do read to learn. But it's it's it's a totally different angle. It's reading something when you know you're GONNA be talking to the author later. Yeah yeah because things will come up. You could definitely got. You'll definitely find lots of questions and things to talk about and even be like. How did you think about this? Yeah so you have to do research. Some people more off the cuff. But I like to be prepared and by that I mean I try and write a flow to the question. What about during the interview so try to ask open questions. Try to make the guest comfortable and relaxed. Is there anything in your head that you're thinking to make this the best it can be? I need to try to focus on them and I try and engage. If there's something because there might be a follow up question or might lead to something else or might lead into a question. I have So focused and listening. You really have to listen. You know everything is about listening. Yes it is and and you can't get distract like. I got distracted. I told you when I was in view I got strategy. Was a band playing downstairs recording show podcast and Bam. You got really upset but I could do enough what you were saying it as well. I have a script of questions. And that's the other thing. Don't be afraid like it's not uncommon where you get caught and flow of conversation. You'll get your paper and you just ask that question. Where's the next question? Accents is to flip a page. It's like it's not a big deal right. Take some confidence to do that. Though it knowing that you will take three seconds the is is GonNa care. Take three seconds to find a good question or looking at my page and like you said on. Podcast you can edit that out it a TV. Show that can if if you know they might retake some. I WANNA come back to like the good interviewers though 'cause I talk about yeah tell me who so you said the two that you were going to Charlie rose and Tabas Smiley or two favorite nephews and the reason being that people are always being just themselves the guards now but on Charlie rose everyone guardia. Same Metabol- Smiley and I remember particularly Howard Stern years ago being on on Charlie rose. And just here's the real guy not the guy here on the radio this is really him sliding guard down. I think today Howard Stern's won best view us and it's interesting because you look at Tau smiling. Charlie rose who who finally things about these guys are disgrace Howard. Stern for years was considered lots of. He's a pig this. But he's gone through all the therapy and he really just engages people in Congress and Irvy's excellent Godhra if you saw his interview with Hillary Clinton No. He wants to have run before the electric. 'cause he said. I really think I could humanized or to a lot of voter He was all for her trumpet astern to introduce some at the convention. The ends like Dumb Hill. I'm for Hillary. And what does it feel that cigarettes there on the day when he's getting sworn in and she's just very? She let her guard down when celebrities. Come on as well the all at the garden and he just he really cares. You could tell he cares and he's interested he's not necessarily keeping to his trip but I'm sure there's some people doing some research. Oh yeah he's impaired and he must studies also really smart but you know it sounds I I keep thinking of the word charming. Yo these other two guys right. Joan Gomez and Howard Stern. They're all charming. Well I guess I. I never thought of areas terms for any of those people. I guess it does apply so charming in the sense that it's almost like wow. He's paying attention to these really interested in what I have to say in. What's the interview should be about you right like they should do less of a talking. And let you ask you a question that you can just talk about. Get you to feel comfortable. Maybe to be a good interviewer you want. You want to charm. The person not not an smarmy way. I'm sure there's some people have been out. There have been good at it I it. Obviously Charlie Rose Devas Body did fix the personalized words like very questionable and I do listen to Marc Maron. The W. T. F. There's someone I'm interested in. If there's someone that they have to say is interviews or quite good. Yeah I've heard a few of those you listen to the Will Ferrell interview mark. Barks talking about you know about failure a lot CONAN to at the title? I'm talking about failure so I think things like that to see that other people have the same anxieties. These famous people are nervous about saved. Things I think. Mark Barron podcasts. And so's Howard Sir and Conan. O'brien does that to the kind of Divulging the inadequacies that he may feel and Howard Stern so that dot was his best. If you ever need Conan the best interview they felt felt really connected was a big deal. Had the that's the show and I bought his book his latest book. Which is all interviews which he says this is my life is great. Achievement groups kids Chou of interviews. And that's because everybody let's Gardanne with them and I think it's because I think when you. Charlie rose people trusted him so. I don't mind make myself vulnerable here before we move onto the five rapid fire questions. I have a question for you that I did not pre issue. I'm fine but I want you to know that I am comfortable in you. Being completely honest. Do you have any advice for me in interviewing just be yourself. Don't worry if he loves thing and don't worry Tori about if you have a bad episode. Who Cares if you've ever been so it's like I can't hear this who cares than don't dent out then. Why was in broadcasting school there? They were like they kept saying. It's not brain surgery so we're GONNA move on now to the five rapid fire questions ready first question. What are your pet peeves? Slow moving people on the subway or living in London. You have quickly. You're like walking up Oxford street or you're against the tourists just kinda standing there and it's like you've got to get out of the way because the tubes and everyone just wants to get off the to when I'm on the subway here. Difficult like owed the trainers. Oh My. That's not full in London. You haven't seen fall. It's almost like London is maybe one has to Japan where there's a guy forcing you withstood. Yup like you're that close to people. Well so yeah people to move okay. Question number two. What type of learner are you visual? Auditory kinesthetic or some other kind of learning listening and visual like my cousin and I trust each will talk this time. He'd read something going to book and retain a documentary all retainer for decades. Albertine that information better question number three introvert or extrovert? Both be honest and I don't think that's contradiction. There will be times where I'm very quiet. A Not really that couple of parties. Let's not meeting people. I took like awkwardness question number. Four communication preference for personal conversations. Well now it's texting hide. Always prefer to talk to me. I never liked emailing people. Click sometimes that email someone and say. Hey listen please. Don't take any tone this. There's no tone intended because someone could read an email and take opiates whereas on the phone They don't hear that because they can hear your tone right so if I'm making plans I'd rather talk somebody but given the way things are today. It's usually text it is. I ended with an emoji right. I was just GonNa say that so you had the emojis so people know your winky or someone else to be able to just add an emotion and I was like I don't know at the Dow someone we're done here we're going to set up your bit. Moji on your phone. I've got okay. Okay yeah question number five podcast or blog or email newsletter that you find yourself recommending the mostly. That's a good question like I said if it's someone to one listen to get them interested in. Wpf Mark Maher cake. And Greg proops makes me laugh but other podcasts do you subscribe to. I get candidly Patriot. Member of Kenya Land. I think they do some some good work that gets looked over. Oh sorry and the secret life of Kendra listen to as well. Thank you very very much for sharing your insights with me about interviewing pleasure. I talked too much joy editing. You're supposed to talk too much. That's funny well I did it. I interviewed the interviewer about interviewing. David is so gracious and easy to talk with isn't he? Thank you again. David for sharing your expertise on conducting an interview and for reminding me to just relax. It's not brain surgery. So what were your favorite insights? Let me share with you. Three of my favorite learnings from this conversation. I the pre interview specifically three questions to ask the person in advance one. What do you want to talk about to? What's off limits and then this one's my favorite. Is there a story that you WANNA tell? Don't tell me the story but tell me what it's about so that I can queue up. I love that question. I'm definitely GONNA use that in the future. Then there's my second favorite point from his conversation during the interview no matter the context a job interview or a live interview on stage or whatever. Your main job as the interviewer is to listen and engage being in the moment and responsive to what the person is saying is obviously important but also and this is key. Don't hesitate to take a few seconds to look at the questions that you prepared. It's no big deal my last favor point contrary to what the experts might say the. Yes. No question is not off limits. I'm thinking if you're conducting a job interview or any kind of interview. Frankly you might want to know where the person stands on something so go ahead ask the US no question but then David reminds us. Of course you have to follow up with asking. Why all right? I said we'll definitely have a future. Episode focused on being on the other side of the desk had a rocket in a job interview as always. I would love to hear what you think about this episode any ideas you have for future episodes or anything else you can email me anytime at Andrea at talk about talk dot Com and as I said at the beginning. I really hope you'll sign up for Free Communication coaching through the weekly talk about talk email blog. Just go to the talk about talk dot Com website and sign up there or you can email me directly and I'll add you to the list all right. That's it for this episode. Thanks for listening and talk soon.

Mr David David shore Toronto Dr Andrea Wojnowski William Shatner Charlie Dave Thomas Charlie rose Tim Ferriss Marc Maron Dave Howard Stern Digest CBC Radio Oprah Winfrey Canada David Short Bobby Orr Mark Maher Greg proops
Who is Ken Jennings?

Slate's The Gist

37:36 min | 9 months ago

Who is Ken Jennings?

"The following program may contain explicit language. A monday january fourth twenty twenty one from slate. It's the gist. I'm mike pesca audio of donald trump railing georgia election officials is one of those documents of which the providence says so much originally. I assume maybe you did too. It was the georgians duly georgians on the receiving end of the president's our long. Let's say blather put it out there to show just how unreasonable the guy was being. There's some evidence. Politico did report that it was taped. The georgians end robbins burgers end. And maybe they were the ones who put it out there. But then i got to thinking about the alternative. Maybe the trump team league did because the audio sounds a little clearer of him talking so whoever was on the receiving end maybe they were rolling to but it didn't sound like he was talking through speakers as much as they were. But i think it's very important to know who leaked it. because then we could begin to understand. Trump and his motives was trump being delusional because he is delusional or was he being delusional as strategy was. He being tactically delusional. These are the sorts of arguments after all that he would put forth before a crowd of cheering masses including one of the arguments would be that you cheering masses. You mean that. I couldn't lose. They say it's not possible to have lost your job and i can tell you by our rallies. Tell you the rally. I'm having on monday night. The place they already have lies if people standing out front waiting then on this tape. He goes all healthy. Joel on us ed. Painful so people voted and he just gives voice up a half dozen other risible or really in some cases execrable theories. The question is does he believe this conspiracy garbage or is he using it to rally his supporters. I mean that's why he would be saying these things into a microphone that people would cheer about but making these arguments on a closed phone call that he had never expect to see. The light of day indicates that he is daft and unstrategic. These ridiculous notions have no chance of convincing the other people on the line. The actual experts doesn't even have a chance of convincing merely sane people so to give voice to these theories to the georgians doesn't make a lot of sense but leaking out the tape as another means of advancing the argument to your people that it becomes a tactical delusion by the way. I don't think it will work. I really hope it won't. But i really think it will not change the result to what he wants but what it could you is serve his purposes as he solidifies himself as a figure of grievance support and sympathy sympathy among those very crowds whose presence he claims as positive proof of his victory. There was ever one aspect of this tape that wasn't merely curious or risible or shocking but was disturbing on a human level. He focus so much of his ire on one here to four anonymous election worker. Well she's not anonymous among cunanan conspiracy circles but her name. And i'm going to say the name now. Even though many nations bleep it out. Her name is ruby freeman. She is democratic election worker. She has a ballot counter. She lives in georgia. She worked as a democratic observers like democratic party and she wants them to win elections fairly. It would seem all evidence is fairly. She's passionate about politics. Report says she owns a handbag kiosk. Got the mall. She's a sixty year old black woman so as the source of trump's hatred. Maybe that demographic is too shocking. And she's definitely become. The of fervid conspiracies and now those conspiracies have officially reached the highest level rummy freeman. That's she's a vote scammer professional votes scammer and hustle roomy freeman ruby friedman ruby freeman. Where's ruby whereas ruby ruby ruby freeman. Night where's ruby ruby. Where's ruby to be clear. There is no evidence that ruby freeman did anything but assist in the recount. There are many online rumors about her. Many of those have been proved false. She's not been arrested. Why i am saying her name is to just point out that this is going on and it makes the president's horrible behavior more resonant and more salient i think to think about the actual person who is on the receiving end of this ir. So it's not just the name and a bleep and concept of someone being insulted but imagine being her imagine being her daughter who was also mentioned by trump. A democratic party activist one day who gets turned into the greatest dirty political. Trickster of all time someone who denies a teeming hordes of lunatics from the leader from the hero they so desire what a shameful calumny and it's not an affront to an abstract concept like democracy or rule of law the will of the people it's a shameful affront to an actual woman a woman they ruby who does not deserve any of this on the show. Today i shall spiel about ken jennings drinking from that chalice of online vitriol. The potent potable of all twitter. But i david shore is a fairly brilliant political scientist an analyst who i think has offered the most trenchant ideas about the twenty twenty election there maybe not revolutionary ideas their ideas along the lines of listen to what the voters are saying. Don't tell them things they hate. But i wanted to have david by in a couple of parts. Just because i've been enjoying his analysis that i've been hearing elsewhere and had a couple of fully burning questions i needed to ask him. David shore up next. This episode is brought to you by bonds. Mambas makes the most comfortable socks in the history of feet. They at bombay's have literally rethought every little sock detail. How many little details are there a lot a lot when you think about socks. They think about comfort these socks do more than keep your feet warm and cozy. They also give back to the most vulnerable members of our community every pair of of socks that you purchased well. The company donates a pair to someone in need the generosity of customers has allow them to donate over ready for the numbers. How many pairs of socks forty million. Forty million pairs of socks to a nationwide network of three thousand giving partners to those experiencing homelessness. These talks represent the dignity of putting on clean clothes a small comfort. That is especially important right now. Give a pair when you buy a pair and you get twenty percents off your first purchase at bombay's dot com slash gist. That's dot com slash gist for twenty percent off your first purchase bomb dot com slash. Gist david shore is a researcher and consultant for democratic politicians who first began working for the obama administration as a very precocious number crunching twenty year. Old he has helped obama win his help other democrats win. He has data backed opinions about tactics. That cause some democrats to lose one is embodied slogans like abolish is. I'm not in favor of abolishing ice. I say there needs to be some enforcement of immigration laws. Let's just enforce them better. Let's not throw away the laws or have the laws but throw away. The enforcement no agrees with me but twenty four percent of the american public campaign on this issue. Because it's unpopular now some progressives disagree. They say you can change minds if you campaign and unpopular issues but what they don't realize at least don't acknowledge is that has costs championing. An unpopular idea might make it more popular. But it might make you and your party even more unpopular than whatever you gain on the idea itself when a politician advocates for any agenda item. Not only is he or she talking to their potential or current followers. They're talking to other people who might very well disagree with them with this in mind. I started by asking david shore. What is the effect of all of that that i have just described. That's a great question. Something i like to say is that a lot of democrats say you know. The problem with democrats is that we talked too much about issues and not enough about our values and that's actually completely backward the whole problem. Is that swing. Voters don't share our values if they did they would be partisan democrats instead. They agree with us on a bunch of different issues in their cross bashar in different ways and so. I think you've got this situation where you have kind of two kinds of voters and you're obviously the real world is a spectrum but you know you kinda you can imagine those kinds of voters where you have hard partisans. People who are always democrats always republicans and the reason why these hard partisans are. Partisans isn't necessarily about issues They might have these real convictions. But also there's a lot of flexibility you. Democrats used to be against trade and then obama comes out in favor of trade and then suddenly you know it all changes and you see the opposite happened with republicans or in the same way when a bunch of liberal activists talk about abolishing ice. Suddenly abolishing ice goes from ten percent to thirty percent in all of that happens among these democrats so that happens for people on the on the extremes but people in the middle aren't like that you know they don't have this natural inclination to vote one party or the other on the basis of the values they hold and they also don't know democratic or republican politicians. So they're not gonna take cues from. Vox and decide that. Actually we need to abolish. Is they're just gonna say democrats are crazy in they're gonna switch and so that's kind of the trade off is that you have at the same time. What political scientists call this follow the leader effects that when party embraces in issue people in their party will change their mind to support that issue. But you also have this other effect where the swing voters who disagree with you are going to switch parties and that trade off israel and i think that it really shows the limits of i think a really broad swath of activism. That's really designed to get democrats to embrace unpopular issues. You know when you do that you do. It's true you know you can get an issue from ten percent to thirty percent by getting democrats to go and embrace something but you can never get it from thirty percent to seventy percent and that's what you need you know like in order to make these policies actually happened in order for these policies to get acted. You need these issues to be at sixty percent seventy percent when did democrats embrace Gay marriage they waited until it was sixty. When did they embrace marijuana legalization like when did the legalization was pulling at sixty and so the question is like how do you get to that and you know. The answer is the politicians. Don't actually affect. What swing voters think about issues. If you care about issues you have to persuade them a different way and you know there are different ways to do that. I think that as the demographics of the country changed you know as the country gets more secular as the country gets more educated that creates more fertile ground immigration is still relatively unpopular. But it's much much more popular than it was thirty or forty years ago and that's because the country is more educated. The other other thing. And i think this is what was keita's success behind both marijuana legalization and gay marriage is changing. How media portrays these issues. There was this great study that looked at newspaper coverage of of lgbt issues. You know big inflection point like attitudes on homosexuality we're actually basically steady right up until about one thousand nine hundred one thousand nine hundred and it really coincided with the creation of the first you know syndicated. Lgbt issues column. That was put into newspapers around the country. And that just you know that was the start of a bunch of sympathetic coverage about lgbt individuals. And that is what kind of started this massive indian change. We're gonna dear abby our way into societal change. we're going to maryland. Vaas savant ourselves into a socialist paradise. I think the reality of the world we live in is that you know. The median voter is fifty years old in the medium fifty year old watches about six hours a day of television in the ninety s. They used to read newspapers to now. Not so much so that. That avenue isn't as important given that that's what people are doing you know. The median american wakes up goes to work spends most of the remainder of their day. Either sleeping or watching television. it doesn't seem bleak but that is that is the actual reality of like what people do with their time. That means that if you want to persuade them if you want to change how they think about really fundamentally health core values. You're not going to get them to do that by having politicians who they don't even trust give speeches one way or the other you're going to have to do it via the media that they consume and that's like a hard persuasion problem. You know i. I think if you look at what's what was successful with gay marriage and you know what a lot of these are around persuasion of shown is you know you have to do it. Via addition and not subtraction. You want cast people as sympathetic rather than shame. People is being biggest if you take the sum total of that of how do you do this long. Term cultural change. It doesn't look like a lot of the political activism that grabs headlines in the media. So i want to talk about the protests over the summer. Because you're citing. I interview with you where you were citing some evidence that only two things really changed voters opinions doesn't mean they're the only two important things and one was president trump using pepper spray outside the white house and another was the protesting. Maybe especially the kenosha in milwaukee protesting protesting the nature of protesting writ large. So first of all my getting that about right. Yeah the only caveat. I'd say on the second one. I am actually pretty confident. There was a big spike in the polls after the lafayette parkinson providing and then there was a definitely decline over like a two to three week period in august. A lot of things happen in august. Know i think you have the rnc. You have You do have what was happening in kenosha and you also had some of the check stuff but looking at it listen cly i think kenosha in the broader protests around it probably had a pretty big effect right so there is a debate. Is the phrase defunding. The police hurt centrist democrats. Who were running for office tied up with that. What about the nature of the protests and you have noted that democrats get rated highly on improving race relations but republicans get rated highly on controlling crime. So i think what happened with the protests fairly or unfairly once the message of that when it was mostly peaceful and to think of the protest is to think of a project of race relations. Democrats are going to do well but then when you think of the protests as an example of lawlessness republicans are gonna do well and i don't know the extent to which democrats perceive that to be the case i mean if just indulge me for a second. I think most democrats fair-minded middle of the road. Democrats would say of protesting turning into looting violence. Something like look. It's wrong it's terrible. We deplore it. This should not be the way it is expressed but they don't see the difference between non violent protests and rioting and looting as the difference between a good thing and a horrible thing that must be stopped at all costs. They see it as a poor regrettable expression of a decent underlying cause. The problem is the median. Voter swing voters impressionable. Voters actually kind of flip a switch and they look at it differently and i don't know that democrats are really understanding how those voters are now experiencing the yes. I think the whole reason that liberals are liberals is that they care a lot more about some things in the care a lot less about other things some of the most important rules about politics. Are that people really really hate. Crime like really can't stress that one enough and also people hate taxes. Those are those are just like when you ignore those two things than even in the most liberal jurisdictions in the country republicans will win elections. You know rudy. Giuliani won as mayor of new york. You know because crime enough there. Republican governors in vermont and maryland in massachusetts because voters don't like taxes in maryland it was spro tax and obviously in vermont. It was the sector of single payer. Those are some hard rules even even in these blue states. You can have these left-leaning independent voters but fundamentally they don't share the same values that we do and that's something that we have to be really cognizant of if we wanna maintain power if you look at the protests and you call them looting new call them. Rioting a liberal might say that's a mischaracterization. What about the underlying. Cause you know okay. Some windows get smashed. But it's really important that this is still about racial justice that is not how the people they're trying to persuade c- it's just not. You're not going to win an election until you many elections until you realize that something i like to say is that people see liberals as folks who have some good ideas they care about people they care about making things better but they can't be trusted power you know. They're kind of irresponsible and naive. About how people work you know kind of bleeding heart liberals and so you know they care more about the self expression of some activists than like the safety of you and your family you know. I think there's some truth to that you know there's some saying there's the old saying that you want wig measures and tori governors And i think that in order for us to win. It's really important for us to project that we are actually normal people who care about the same things that they do that you know. We're not hostile to faith that we care about protecting their family from crime. You know that we care about defending the country. We care about stopping terrorism and also that you know we also want to help people and make the world more fair but if we if someone thinks that we don't care about their public safety we don't care about protecting their family. They could agree with us on healthcare and a lot of them won't vote for us if liberals don't care about protecting them from terrorism i think it's somewhat of a calumny to suggest that liberals don't care about that and so if someone were to believe that i don't know maybe i'm wrong. Maybe i'm in a liberal bubble. You can tell me. But if someone doesn't believe that. I don't know i wonder if something's going on there. They're getting incorrect information. Or there's some sort of propaganda. That's getting that message across. But i think it's a little different with the looting that went on the writing that went on over the summer. Just because it's not that. I don't think joe biden or most liberals didn't care about it but i thought that they cared about it a little. They just thought it was like regrettable but in the whole scope of things it was more important that we had a lot of protests and if some stores get looted so be it so it's a lot different from the terrorism angle. I think i like to go back to trust gallup. Has this thing where they asked people you know. What parties do you think. Would you trust more to handle different issues. And republicans do have you know. Big advantage is on terrorism big advantages on crime. I don't think anyone believes that. Any except for the craziest. Republicans like democrats are pro crime or pro terrorism. But i think that in politics you have to always make a bunch of trade offs you have to say. Do we protect our civil liberties or do we protect our national security or do we do. We protect the right to self expression or do we protect these business owners and protect people's safety and you know every time we go out and we say things we project you know what we think. The correct trade offs between these things are and when those are out of balance with what. The median voter. Thanks that's where the issues have him like. If the median voter thinks that protests are good in luding bad but like they really wanna make sure there's zero looting and whatever you do you do it and then they look at democrats and go out. Actually democrats don't really care about this at all their position is exactly what you said. Then that's how you lose votes. And so i think it's just really important. We weren't to be clear. We weren't in a position of power we didn't control we didn't control the federal government and so i think it's important to understand what what people think about these things and do everything we can to try to project that either we have the same values or that we at the very least understand what these people's values are and not. You know seem derisive of them so way to win. That particular issue What was the right thing for democrats to say. Should they have said when the looting starts the shooting starts. Is that the better message for medium voters. No probably not. I i mean i i want something i like to say is that donald trump is is more racist than the median voter but i think donald trump is more is more racist than sixty year. Sixty five percent of voters in like hillary clinton is like more woke than like ninety percent of voters. And so. I don't think you'd have to be too dark like i think. Biden did. Maybe he waited a little long along to do it. But i think he did very forcefully condemn. What was happening. he really forcefully. Can you know he. He said the words even if it made people in his party man and we did testing on that clip. You know when. I think he made in and out of it where he talked about how he was against defunding police. He was against looting and it tested. Well you know it was a good ad. I think it was in the In the eightieth or ninetieth percentile of ads that we tested out of the hundreds of ads. We tested so you know. I think that biden struck. A good line is think. He was the only person in his party. Who did who did that. I think for the most part that is the right line like the median voter. I think it's not that there are these. They're not like wallace there. Is there anything like the. The median voter had this position that these protests for good there were very real issues with the police but also that the looting was bad. and the ludicrous. You know the people who are doing this looting should be stopped and prosecuted. And that's a physician that you know not just the majority of people had i think a majority of african americans agree. I think indiana's. I think it was something like seventy percent of african americans agreed with something like that statement that statement that i just said i think that joe biden you know went and said a thing that made a lot of people on his party upset. Like you know just i personally working democratic and i can say like people were very very mad about that. A lot of very mean on not just feel them activists like actual people who work in democratic politics. Very mad. I think the answer is the anodyne act of saying popular things and i think joe biden did a good job at that. But it's not something that's uniformly being done across the democratic party. I think partly you know because people are afraid of backlash partly because people who work in democratic politics are much much more left wing. I think some people might appreciate candidates. Embracing issue does not make that issue. It just really mainly affects of what vote share. They get in as a result of that. These politicians are not going to embrace what you do until you make it popular so you should really see your challenge is how do you change the minds of people and some of that is done via this cultural channel. I talked about some of it is going to be doing old school organizing so that you can generate media coverage lot of it is just writing things in making your case but trying to tie. Your unpopular view to the democratic party is the feast. That's really counterproductive. it to the broader liberal. 'cause david chores a researcher and consultant for democratic politicians. He will be back tomorrow to discuss the things. He's rethought about political tactics. Why now remembrances of things trump donald trump like all people who use teleprompters has had his stumbles. It happens especially if you need glasses but refused to wear them and it's especially notable if you never shut up about how your predecessor had an excessive reliance on teleprompters guess way trump frequently demonstrated how unreliable was on the teleprompter by ignoring the teleprompter. Then plowing ahead as if what he said. We're normal. here's my favorite example of that. They work two jobs and sometimes three jobs. They sacrificed every day for the furniture and future of their children. You know sometimes you do worry that. The furniture of your child is to be a lazy boy who will never make it into the cabinet. Let alone a backbencher. But trump's greatest teleprompter stumble which he of course would never refer to as a stumbled took place. July fourth twenty nine thousand nine hundred kids staged independence day festival with tanks and the blue angels and his speech all loaded into the teleprompter and ready to read glare. He spoke of the continental army's winter in valley forge of their crossing the delaware and donald. You take it and seized victory from cornwallis of yorktown army. Man the air. It ran and the ramparts it took over the airport's it did everything it had to do. And at ford mckendry under the rockets red glare it had nothing but victory yes they ran the ramp arts and also the airports in seventeen. Seventy six lesser muffs in. That sentence cornwallis yorktown actually cornwallis was of can't the battle was in your town. Whereas the battle at fort mckenry where the rockets red glared wasn't in the revolutionary war at all it was during the battle of eighteen. Twelve for mckenry wasn't even name fort mchenry until fifteen years after the revolutionary war. But really. let's not forget. Ram the ramparts took over the airports. That is the good stuff that is why trump has a singular figure unless we risk forgetting these presidential orations at some point in the furniture. We shall indulge in these remembrance of things. And now the spiel. Ken jennings the first interim host of jeopardy and the greatest champion. That game has ever known has taken to twitter to learn to apologize to defend and then to throw his hands up over some old content he posted on the site and sometimes not always him but a friend of his. Maybe not a friend or colleague originally jennings was being criticized for tweets which mocked republicans such as when he made this remark about when dick. Cheney entered the room humpty dumpty. No no no no. He wasn't mocking. How people looked he was engaged in political discourse he for instance took umbrage at those. Who would compare brad kavanagh to jesus. He argued with pro-life activists with the remark quote. What's dishonest is pretending that our abortion laws wouldn't be very different if men could get pregnant. Now that those anti republican tweets earned him right up in the federalist dot com under the headline wannabe jeopardy. Host ken jennings is capital rape truth or who hates republicans and that was re tweeted by donald trump junior but the earn earth thing of all these tweets that were supposedly offensive to the right led to a greater excavation of many of his other pass tweets which led to one that Sorry which led to the unearthing of a tweet that jennings new was bad and in fact apologize for two years ago. You know how though looking for one thing will always lead to another. What's the daisy chain exactly. But the point is that jennings had apologized for the jokes that he thought maybe at some point. We're funny but that he has come to acknowledge weren't in two thousand eighteen he tweeted. It was a joke so inept that it meant something very different in my head. And i regret the ablest plain reading of it a few days ago. He again apologized for that joke. Which is i think. Two thousand fourteen joke. The joke was there is nothing sadder than a hot person in a wheelchair. His apologized for this several times. And so maybe things seemed okay. I mean he offered to sincere seeming apologies though this was all done on twitter and it can be mistaken for another institution of its elk bellevue. Because now we come to been dad. So there's a guy named john roderick who told a threaded story on twitter about his nine year old wanting a snack some beans and he kind of gave her a can opener and canopies and said figure it out. Roderick bragged about his parenting prowess but much of twitter turned into a villain until a friend of roderick spoke up on his behalf. Who's the white knight. It was you can it. Was you because jennings and roderick host a podcast together. I always say the the only way to go and jennings thought he could wade into yet. Another twitter controversy and smoothed the waters and to quote a great white jennings. Apparently did not wonder for this once. Bitten twice shy. No did not. And after that john roderick twitter past was unearthed given that twitter users or not knowing for that thing. When you just let it alone you know that thing but it's let sleeping dogs lie. Yeah that's the thing. So what we found out from his past tweets is that john roderick might be a neo nazi. I would say that seems unlikely. He seems more like the sort of guy who in two thousand eleven engaged in ironic anti-semitism jews ruin. Everybody's fun he tweeted. He said the founders intended the usa as a white homeland over believes that he's awful and deserve horrible things to be said to him but he probably doesn't believe that i would guess he was just making some sort of joke can jennings who seems to be a very nice guy and a devout guy and the kind guy seems to think the john roderick is a good enough guy but we can't really tell because john roderick deleted his account which i think is kind of a twitter tactic of last. If you can't do the thing where you deflect or you go on the offensive or you create a greater scandal as a distraction. What does wag the dog. That's the thing and so. Has we stand here. Ken jennings has not helped himself with the engagement. And the answer is that. He's given about his podcast. Co hosts pass tweet or his theory of bean self sufficiency john roderick. You know for all i know might be the worst human being ever co host a podcast with a friendly mormon savant but then again that friendly mormon savant might be ablest horror show an embarrassment to the jeopardy brand or at least overwhelmed quasi celebrity. Who has proved ill adept at navigating fears blowback from all sides one who inspires exactly zero people to ask who is the master of disaster. But you know. I actually have a different take on different analysis about all of this. Which is that used to be the case that public speech that was engaging an edgy political or offensive to activists communities that kind of speech was the kind of speech that no one in public would ever want to do and expect to remain in public. Well there were outs. I guess for shock jocks or comex or certain politicians with fervid who just didn't care but in the period between when electronic media was invented pretty much broadcast media. Let's say through the turn of the twentieth to the twenty first century about that period it was the default setting that a person in the public simply could not say things that would give offense but that changed that all changed and it changed with the destruction of the mono culture. I once interviewed tom. Coleco who is unabashedly liberal on twitter. And i marvel that restaurant tour. Someone who's business interests are to serve and feed all members of the public. He is in the hospitality. Industry could be so bolden outspoken on twitter and said you know never hurt me. That is just how i am. He said in fact he gained some fans because of it. And i thought about that and you know it makes sense because restaurant on the level of the establishments that kaleo runs trying to be. Mcdonald's not even trying to be ruth chris. they're trying to exist. Outside the monoculture within a niche culture the culture that has supplanted the monoculture and is the monoculture subsided. There have become fewer and fewer costs to letting all the public in on who you are or what you think. Even when it's not really what you think it just being daring to make a quote unquote edgy jokes in a public setting. But and this is why. Ken jennings is in the middle of this particular. Backlash jeopardy is the monoculture. It is the last vestige of the monoculture cnn anchors lecture on about the horrors of the trump administration just break format and tear into him for six or seven or eight minute chunks. Rain to the camera it's like nixon losing cronkite. Every single night and these days not just punk rockers or ted nugent but the mildest of sitcom actress. Who just need us to know what their stances aren't cabinet officials. My observation isn't that they shouldn't say that it's that at one point. They very much wouldn't. It would be illogical. It would be insane. If fred gwynne needed us to know that herman munster was disgusted. By everything that spiro agnew had done but not jeopardy jeopardy is the exception jeopardy's the last vestige of the monoculture so the rules of the monoculture apply. But these weren't the rules that jeopardy was playing by now. it's ironic. Considering that ken jennings made his fame and much of his actual fortune as a contestant on a game show governed by a clear set of rules. The monoculture those rules embedded in the monoculture those elevated him but then he's gone on to have another career made the rest of his money and extended his fame by building. A brand like we all do through books podcasts in tweets that were governed by the do not offend decree but we're governed by the rules of appealing to small impassioned audiences but now what we see in jennings's the monoculture crashing into the niche culture. And it's not a surprise that even one of the smartest people around miscalculated what he would end up smelling like after getting dragged through this ecosystem. What does it rose. Ooh sorry. Ooh not a ruse. Maybe it wasn't impossible task. Maybe the only hope for kens chances to stay at host is to realize that jeopardy is a show where the audience is sold ensure supplements so. Maybe they're not as on line or as sensitive to online clamor as you know. Everyone on twitter seems to be. These were questionable associations and regrettable tweets. I don't know maybe about them. Ken jennings needs to provide more answers. Although it was never the answers that ken got right in the first place. But it is certainly true that jennings job with jeopardy has gone from on it to in it and that's today's show all the questions you heard. Can john ask in. That segment was from the september fourteenth. Two thousand four episode of jeopardy. It was jennings forty fifth win the producer. Put that together with shane. A roth who when she gets in the editing zone. It's like. I don't know that space were escapes from or is heard from. What is the black hole of calcutta margaret. Kelly produce the gist. She's trying but failing to get this nickname going for jon. Ossoff who she contends. It's barely old enough shave. Here's the georgia peach which is executive producer of sleep podcast. She recommends using brand name portable audio devices to listen to them and not this kind of off. Brand of your was iowa. The gist we once. Drunkenly tumbled over a staircase breaking the banister and earning this nickname. What's the rail. Splitter this stu of internal fluids spewed out what does blood and guts until my wife. Michelle mandate me. Earning nickname clara barton. Wild weekend debra and thanks for listening.

ruby freeman david shore donald trump Ken jennings democratic party john roderick mike pesca kenosha cunanan ruby friedman ruby ruby ruby freeman Mambas twitter Gist david shore obama administration bombay
Political Data Science with David Shor

The CSIS Podcast

02:53 min | 6 months ago

Political Data Science with David Shor

"I'm bob schieffer. And i'm andrew schwartz of the center for strategic and international studies. And this is the truth of the matter. This is podcast where we break down the policy issues the days since the politicians are having their say we will excuse them with respect and bring in the experts many of them from csis people who have been working these issues for years no spin no bombast no finger-pointing just informed discussion. Today's episode of the truth of the matter. I'm flying solo as bob. Shieffer is a town get to the truth of the matter about how americans are affiliating with their respective political parties. And how that's changed in the last couple years we have with us. Data scientists david shore. Who is in charge of data sided open. Labs are a d. a. progressive nonprofit research firm. David you become sort of the wonder kid of democratic politics data scientists and everybody looks at you as the guru these days about how to interpret what is going on in the democratic party. What's going on in the republican party. Why people have been shifting their alliances and affiliates always sutton people who used to be democrats now republicans in people who were once. Republicans are are shifting to become democrats. How do you make sense of all this. Thank you very much. it's very flattering. They're just an enormous ships in artisanship in ideology over the last eight years and these trends have gone on a lot longer. This a reflection of things have been happening forty or fifty years but you know two thousand sixteen was a really big structural break from how politics was before it in two thousand sixteen. Democrats did ten percent worse among working class white voters than they did in two thousand twelve. You know one of my favorite examples is that white voters without a college degree. Who made less than twenty five thousand dollars a year. Rock obama won that group in two thousand twelve and donald trump in two thousand sixteen one that group by over twenty five points so these are roughly one in ten white voters out. A college degree switched their vote. In two thousand twelve to twenty sixteen and those trends continued in twenty twenty. I'm did better overall hillary clinton and so we're you know white working class. Voters stayed basically at the level that they were before maybe things went up by half a point but college. Educated voters swung by seven percent toward democrats and then the countervailing forces that nonwhite voters a trend against us. The stanic voters trended about nine percent against democrats. percentage points which means we're talking eighteen points in margin nearly one in ten hispanic voters switch their votes from clinton to trump and black voters on something like do percent nieto's asian american voters a little unclear.

andrew schwartz david shore bob schieffer center for strategic and inter csis Rock obama democratic party republican party sutton bob David donald trump hillary clinton clinton nieto
Ep. #559: David Shor, Nick Gillespie, Heidi Heitkamp

Real Time with Bill Maher

58:42 min | 6 months ago

Ep. #559: David Shor, Nick Gillespie, Heidi Heitkamp

"Welcome to an. Hbo podcast from the hbo layton series real time with bill. Maher wow look at this. Thank you i appreciate it. Thank you spring strong here. Oh thank you very much. I could see the Happiness is the love because thank you and we are getting back to normal. I see it everywhere to traffic is. Heavier restaurants are opened republicans. Pretend to give a shit about the dead again. I i feel like any minute. Pam matters could remarry kid rock and things are just returning and listen to this the. Cdc they said the distancing rule they have for kids school kids which has been six feet three feet moving in the right direction in florida. Students are hopeful that by fall. They'll be back inside their teachers. Ted florida but of course with us reopening it brings other issues. We have a surge of migrants at the border authorities say we cannot take anymore anymore unskilled foreigners who don't even seem like they want to work. We already have megan harry that and oh good good. Good crowd to give out treats when they laugh at the laugh at the politically incorrect. One's good but here's something interesting. I read about the pandemic that we're hopefully coming out of it during this last year. They say this survey found the average single person has been masturbating three times a day. I don't know who this is exactly. I assume it's the guy in the zoom meeting claims. He's petting his cat. I assume know it doesn't really reveal anything about human nature. We don't already know but it does explain. Why costco is a kleenex. Hey biden's kind of kick an ass you know. Well you know his big thing was. I'm going to get one hundred when that was his big thing. I'm going to get one hundred million vaccines out. One hundred ninety seven million vaccines have gone two million a day now. Trump said oh. Sure if you want to show off government tries no biden promised one hundred million in one hundred days way ahead of that schedule. Of course you have to understand. This is a guy who eats dinner at five. Pm so but one reason why they're doing so with that is they. Expanded the list of who can give shots dentists. Did you know that you're getting for medical students. Midwives midwives anymore had those veterinarians. And then i went my vet. Oh it's fine a little different. He gave me this shot and he put a cone on my neck. Yes it was a little a little weird going to the bed for a shot at to trick myself to get into the car but other than that. It's but you've read this. People are figuring out ways to jump the vaccine lines at berkeley. Now you can get it. If you're a spiritual adviser says you're an old soul seems wrong. La get it. If you're facial filler is still under warranty. Speaking facial filler. the oscar. Nominations are out excited about that. Guess the leading contenders for best picture or a nomad land minority and the sound of metal so for theatres trying to figure out how to reopen at fifteen percent capacity. I think we found the answer. All right got a great show. We have heidi heitkamp is back here. Nick gillespie good show. But i stopped a former a former data scientists with the twenty twelve obama campaign. Who is now the head of data science at open. Labs david shore david and now let's Let's set you up for the people who may not know who you are data scientist. I hadn't heard that term before. What exactly is a data scientist. Statisticians who i think. The joke is stated its programmers. Who are bad at satistics or subsidisation programming. Whatever it is you must be good at it because you did it for obama when you were twenty right right out because you're able to do that because you graduated or started college at thirteen. That's right me too so so okay so boy genius. Let me ask you this. Then how'd you do with the twenty twenty election did you. What were your predictions close. Because the polls were way off where they not the polls the polls were wrong. You know this was a really terrible year for polling. Twenty sixteen was a bad year for bowling. But two thousand sixteen twenty twenty somehow ended up being worse And i think you know the at least i'll say the election was closer than they thought it would be Though i think the joke is you know. Everyone predicted going in that Joe biden president. The democrats would have fifty one or fifty or fifty one seats in the senate. It's kind of what happened But i'd love to talk just a little bit about why the polls so wrong here. So i'm gonna there's a tale of two years. I'm going to start with twenty sixteen. So you know the big fundamental reason why polls are wrong. Everyone likes to talk about the undecideds breaking or you know turnout. But it's actually. Just the survey takers are super super weird. That's like the big the big problems creepy. I mean a lot of them. I'm sure no i know. There's there's a real when people get the call. They think it's a weirdo. So the biggest thing you know looking at two thousand sixteen is something called social. Trust so you know the way this gets operationalize social scientists. They ask do you think people generally trusted or do you think people should keep to themselves. Most people say that people can't be trusted something like sixty seventy percent of people But the few people who do trust the people around them kind of unsurprisingly way more likely to answer phone service. yeah getting trusting people. You're getting trusting people. You're getting nice people. We've done personality test. People are way more agreeable like the kind of people who just stop what they're doing and they say oh Researcher wants to know my views on contemporary events. Oh my god yeah. I'll help him out. Yeah and which is not what i would about that. You're right yeah definitely and so. What's in it for me exactly. There's a lot of voters just like you. And so you know the big problem. This is always been true. People with low social trust never answered phone surveys but it used to just not matter used to be that like politics was fight about whether taxes should be higher or lower and donald trump changed that donald trump change what it meant to be a republican and so suddenly like if you look among people who trust their neighbors you know they. That group swung toward clinton by like five or six points. That's that's the poles captured. That's the pulling we saw. But there was this silent hidden majority of people who didn't trust the people around them and And we're in answering phones and those people disproportionately working class white voters the midwest. And that's the big reason. Why all these mid western polls were wrong. So we'll fix this next time. When they started do polling they adjust for that county. Well i mean i. There's a different pulling story. Which is in two thousand sixteen. The states were wrong but at least you know the national polls were about right. Twenty twenty was way worse. You know the national polls were off by like three or four points. And the reason i think is kind of funny. It's basically corona virus that like we actually when we do our surveys. We we actually join them to the voter file and so we could see starting in march. The percentage of people who answered surveys who registered democrats shot up and the reason is that democrats were stuck at home. They respected the lockdown. You can tell with creepy cell phone. Data that democrats really were staying home and republicans were out partying and doing spring break. And a and those democrats were just desperately answering every survey they could find. And that's that's actually. Why surface wrong. It's kind of funny i. so yeah. What was the biggest surprise. Though of of the twenty twenty. I mean for me. I don't know if this is what the scientists said but the fact that trump did better with minorities. Yeah okay so what what happened there. Yeah i think the big surprise twenty sixteen trump did do better with nonwhite voters then Then rock bonded. And i think a lot of people weren't surprised they wanted to write off. They're like oh well you know brock obama. There's a lot of reasons he would do. Better with nonwhite voters but in two thousand eighteen. This really should have been a warning sign. You know Nonwhite voters china against democrats white voters trying to toured and this was really consequential. We lost florida senate race if The georgia governor's race. If stacey abrams had done as well among black voters this hillary clinton did she would have been governor right now. but twenty twenty was a continuation of that trend. And i think that was the thing that was most surprising to me. Because it's something that you know a lot of the polls also didn't see coming. Just run through it not hispanic. Voters swung something like nine percentage points against democrats. and that's percentage points that means roughly one in ten hispanic. Voters switched their votes from clinton. Let's group democrats count on Historically yes and you know with black voters. it wasn't as large but still there was two to three percent shift Among among asian voters you know the data the jury is still out but it seems like there was at least a five five or six percent shift so this is a really really big bird that you've most most voters are not liberal. Yeah i mean. I think most democrats You know among democrats. It's roughly fifty fifty But i think the big difference you know when you look at ideology is it. Among white people about ninety percent of white liberals vote for democrats in about eighty percent of white conservative republicans but with non white voters. It's not like that. And the reason is this is this is just like arithmetically ideology doesn't vary very much by race. Roughly the same number of black white and hispanic voters identify as liberal moderate or conservative but partisanship varies a lot And the reason for why is that. Democrats historically have done really well with non white conservatives in the story of twenty twenty. Is that democrats used to win hispanic conservatives by double digits and this time trump won them by double digits would would you say that woke and liberal are now really two different at least wings of the party people who consider themselves classic liberals like i do not yes That's why i think they lose. The democrats have been losing votes that they should be winning the big the big thing the police. Could you come up with a more. Drive away the voters phrased than that for example. You know there's crime is really unpopular. You're going to give political advice. The core problem here is that as the party is become more educated Educated people have increasingly defined. You know the brand of the democratic party and one thing i like to say is A lot of people will say it's a truism in politics that democrats are two key. You know we're egg heads you know. We talked too much about issues to communicate our values. But you know the. The median voter doesn't share our values. Our values are weird malian if they had our values would be liberals The only way democrats historically elections was by talking about concrete issues. That people agreed with us on. Its how bill clinton won. It's how you know. Barack obama won. And i think that was one of joe biden strengths. But what are these values. You'd think the average voter doesn't share. Well just to go back to the polling thing like social trust is a big one liberals actually trust government. They trust society. You know they really believe in positive. Some change you know in the end the potential for for some interaction but also you know racial resentment attitudes toward gender. What kind of societies people wanna live in you know what kind of neighborhoods people wanna live in liberals like to live in like exciting tightly packed cities from a personality perspective. You know Scientists like the study this five factor personality model openness to new experiences useful to know is just this idea of how people respond to novel stimuli and highly correlated liberal liberalism. Some people when they see something new and exciting. And there's like a new ethnic restaurant or something they they get really excited and energized But a lot of people the majority of people see novel stimuli in it drains them. It makes it freaks them out. And that's why there's all of this geographic. We seem to be entering an era a segregated. That's coming from the left. I mean on many college campuses. You can see there are separate dorms. Black dorms graduation ceremonies stuff like that. How will that affect elections in the future. I think there's there's a lot of there is a great study in north. Carolina showed that you know racially integrated schools make people more more liberal But you know. I i think just to go back. I think that the important thing is to just realized that most non white voters are not liberal They don't identify as liberal. We should take that really seriously And i think that when it when like realizing that most voters don't share our values means that we should instead try to meet people where they are with the values that they actually hold and that we should talk about issues that they care about all right. Well thanks for coming on very enlightening. Let's see what when you're forty made our panel okay. Hey is another large reason and host of the reason interview podcast nick. Gillespie is back with. Hey next in a while. And she is the former democratic senator from north dakota and co founder of the one country project returning champion. Heidi heitkamp is back here. Great decision you boys here okay. Let's get to the tragedy of the week. Joe biden Just before we went on was speaking in atlanta about despite shootings. He said whatever the motivation we know this too. Many asian americans have been walking down the streets and worrying waking up each morning the past year feeling their safety and the safety of their loved. Ones are at stake. I thought that was a great statement. true statement. Let's not very the this is a big crime Crime violent crime against one hundred and fifty percent last year. This is intolerable. We have to address it however the story is also instructive. I think it says a lot about our tribalism and our inability to see Evidence as opposed to what would fit the narrative that we already believe. Christopher ray says it does not appear that. That's the head of the fbi does not appear that the motive was the was racially motivated And yet marilyn strickland she's from washington state congresswoman racially motivated. Violence should be called for exactly what it is. I mean must stop making a few or or rebranding it as economic anxiety or sexual addiction. But what if it is that everything i've read about this guy robert aaron wong conservative baptist. He's no bino assassin. He's flagellating himself because he feels bad about sex all the Sexual urges shouldn't be doing this porn addiction massage. Parlours seeks treatment for sexual addiction This is the roommate said whenever he would talk about visit massage parlors within the context of god in his parents. Never wouldn't the roommate know if it was about race. Now maybe we'll find out something that's there but it seems like people insist no. This is what i thought it was. And i'm just going to insist. I think we're going to look at this through the lens of our bias but my criticism there is house of christopher. Ray wasn't about race. I mean he criticizes jumping the gun but he hasn't finished his investigation. We don't know he said it doesn't appear to be what shut your mouth and say i don't know yet. Can you all just give us some time to finish the investigation. I think what i mean. I think that that is basically what he was saying. And i think it's important because we're in a supercharged environment where everybody is talking about. Racism white supremacism The same survey that showed a hundred and fifty percent increase in hate crimes in sixteen. Major cities uh found overall hate crimes. Last year went down by seven percent So you know we shouldn't be rushing to try to fit everything into a hate crime The the history of asians in america they were the first people to be excluded from immigration. And as a matter of fact south asian indians were not there one thousand nine hundred eighty three supreme court case where an indian tried to say why he should be allowed citizenship. It ended up. Not only did he lose. They ended up kicking out other indians who had managed to get here. They've a horrible history in this country. But it's also a great immigrant story in that asian americans now make far more than the median average family household in terms of in terms of education in terms of opportunity. So as we talk and try to fix racism in our society so i have to look at big bigger pictures The asians jews in america where they face a lot of specific problems but they also succeed very well and they ultimately are accepted for life. You know the problem in this country is we don't confront issues like what's happening right now with the asians until we have a mass shooting in you know in at massage parlor but why not. But it's that listing racially. I really feel like if it was armenians who were manning the massage parlours. He would have killed armenians that we don't know but you seem to be what we do know. I mean the roommate the roommate. That's what he was saying in the privacy of his home if he said there. I do think it's right to say you know over the past year and this is something that trump and and a number of people You know we're pushing the wuhan flu type of thing and this is open awful racial racist language that should be confronted. And you know that's something biden said when you hear something don't put up with it. Put it down. I think that's true. At the same time i think turning this particular instance into something which it may not that in the end does not help you reach people who are racist by tyrone until there is something that is so heinous. We don't confront real problem. Could i just point out. The sexual guilt from religion is also a big thing. It's been a big thing for malaria. Exactly yes. pp's because their sexual beings and religion makes you feel bad about think. There's you the question. Here of what about massage parlors. What about legalizing sex work There are ways that we can change How people interact and how they meet basic needs in an open way in a more constructive way. There's many things that we can be talking about coming out of this. And i do think it's right to to take a moment to look at the the residue of anti asian racism in american deal with but not necessarily turn this into something that hard to keep two thoughts in our mind at the same time this. This epidemic of violence against asians is horrible. And we have to do something about it. And this probably isn't part of it but i think people get so frustrated that no one's paying attention that everybody jumps on something like this and said see there it is and then you get the attention and that's the problem. We don't give attention to problems. That aren't catastrophes. Good segue the border crisis at the border headline on the news season right every year and i thought it was interesting because i also read today along the border stories that over at the white house. They've put people on leave and fired some for smoking pot. I thought this was the new white house. I dotcom la had a had a come to jesus moment on pie and we were all lying man out or as long as she was high. If you went back to being a cop okay. Well not cool. Anyway i'm connect. I'm connecting these two issues here and i'll tell you why because the democrats are putting forth legislation this week in pieces now. They're trying to what the easy stuff too. Because immigration is the issue that keeps haunting them and that we as a country have to solve. So they're dreamers stuff about that Humanitarian aid farmworkers. These are the easy ones biden. Also said we should address the root cause and then he mentioned aid to the central american economies. Excuse me the root causes drugs drugs. We liked drugs drugs. it's illegal those countries are going to be run by. Hey darko terrorists can i. Can i put put even a little bit further and say the problem isn't drugs. The problem is the war on drugs. Now because we're me. I don't think just never gordon car toys able to get the cartels. Aren't moving avocados right there moving. We'd they're moving cocaine substances. And this is where joe biden unfortunately is the most clueless person. He's the worst person happened white house at this time. This is a guy who over the past. Fifty years has been involved in every major every major increase in the war on drugs. I don't think if drugs is the issue. This is not the guy you want in the white house right. Now as an intersects with the problem the problem is we can all say. Let's legalize it but it leads to really some pretty serious consequences like like total addiction expansion of addiction. I'm talking about what happened. Well did it. Portugal did that. They legalized everything. I think a couple of criminalized and actually so lower use right lower lower addicted rights lower social. Let's take a different run on this. The best talk majority of people in this country. Don't wanna leave legalize drugs but they also want to deal with the consequences. Rollback not legally overwhelming majority wants to legalize weed the way be. I ended november. Of if i may and november people in oregon decriminalized all drugs for personal possession. People in dc legalized rush rooms. And things like that everywhere you look. People are so we can have the war on drugs where we can have drugs. You know. it's not a tough choice and by the way all the bed illegal drugs. They have pharmaceutical versions. It's not that they're not. You can get cocaine. They just call it all right. You know you can get heroin. Methadone or opioid craziest story about pot. Because it's scheduled higher than those drugs. Has they have a pharmaceutical reason. Wrote this whole thing with marijuana. I don't know why the biden administration would step into this because it is. They don't see the transnationally. Which is south dakota legalized recreational marijuana. South dakota right. So if south dakota to do it my spade has not yet but we will everybody eventually. You're kidding you know the next time you come on this show. We'll be there won't be there will be all this arguing. The challenge that you have with the border is that no one wants to tell the truth about what's going on which is the cartels are doing very very horrible things. These kids are coming to the border. Basically banding no. They're coming wide because they're economic migrants and they're to come into this country and work and send remittances home because their parents cannot afford to live in their be and there from heartland in italy and so if you return these kids they won't have the ability to pay and their families are going to. The kids is really really bad. Resident is finding out. That kids in cages was horrible. But when kids show up at the border you put them in some sort of a thing that somebody can call a cage but their larger question that they need to have like for surges. They need to have more facilities than eight to have more resources to deal with people. Humanely most asylees come here They don't get accepted and they go back home. But we need a broader discussion on immigration joe. Donald trump's greatest achievement was to turn everybody in favor of immigrants. Seventy five percent of americans think immigration is a good thing for the country. Eighty five percent of democrats sixty five percent. Republicans according to gallup. Joe biden should run with that. And how did he get elected on. I'm going to build a wall. Yeah he he got he got elected by getting the smallest percentage of votes that you could get instill squeal a big get elected because there's two different kinds of immigrants the ones that have been here for years and are your neighbors and everybody's in favor of them and the ones coming to the border that they've been told her members of the cartel and they're going to rape your children right and so when you're right and so when you abandon the border as a part of immigration you lose so you've gotta talk about border security in conjunction with what's happening at the but the way to secure the border is to let more people pass through legally anybody who wants to come here who's not infected with a with a communicable disease or has a violent criminal record. Let them come through. Let them work. Let them live. Let them pay taxes legally. And then you can start. Seeing the bad people will start coming in and other places that was joe biden's position he wouldn't be president of the united states. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. He trump pretty handily and unlike most democrats. He was very pro-immigrant because the democratic party has never been over womanly favorable to immigrants. That is where the he's president of the united states by forty five thousand votes. Never forget that and forty five thousand volts. If biden head should get forty. Five thousand votes had switched in three states. Donald trump would have been reelected got elected rate closer than the one he won. Been million people in this. Yeah you and i guess. And it's about your state it is. You gotta give that up north dakota. We know three zero vote. You get four goddamn senators. Because it's the dakota territory. It shouldn't be two states and california. With forty million people gets the same number of senators. 'institution what are we gonna suddenly now. Now now it's the constitution. All right let me. I want to bring a little economics here. Because i think look. We just passed this giant bill. Okay good. there's some nice things that are happening here that we're all happy about you know. Child poverty has been cut in half. I don't know anyone want is for child poverty. But just let me give you the economic recap because people don't follow Because i hear the economy is ready to sizzle again. We're going to have the roaring twenties again. Maybe or maybe. The depression thirties but market value is at thirty two times earnings. The enormous sixteen times in other words. It's thirty two times. What a company is really worth is what the market is valued at and it's twice what it normally is okay. Federal debt stands at one hundred percent of gdp only the second time since world war two. The federal debt is bigger than the size of the economy. The debt is bigger than the economy itself. Okay between nineteen thirty and nineteen forty when we had. That's the depression. So they spent six percent of gdp on the depression in recessions between one thousand nine hundred ninety five and two thousand and eight one percent of gdp. We spent to get out of shit now. We spent twenty six percent of gdp in twelve months with all the. It's five trillion dollars to fight the pandemic problems four trillion and justice revelation to win world war two we spend a trillion more on this. Been world war two. Maybe this will work out but there seems to be this. At least this new ideology brought on by the pandemic. you can just dream up any number. I mean i remember when obama was bailing out of the the great recession and it was seven hundred eighty billion and people were like holy fuck. He signed a paper for seven hundred eighty and now they signed this like. It's the dinner check. So i thought well the first thing is the democratic party saw happened during the trump years right trump spent like a drunken sailor. He gave away billions of dollars to major corporations. By the why not right right. Republicans definitely put us in debt. Way more than the democrats right always and then the democrats have to come in and the republicans act like. I don't know who spent all this money they're like a blackout drunk and the point is and the point is when it is. When is that the working class people that the difference between these plans and the one that was just passed as i think it was appropriately targeted to the lower court tile and that it will in fact encourage economic growth and you could see economic growth. That would help pay for it. I'm not gonna say it will pay for itself but it it's like when is it the turn of the lower middle class to actually get a break from government instead of seeing. It always go to the rich. I don't necessarily just assume that it would be great if most of this was going to you to deal with cova. Five percent according to the committee for a responsible federal budget It's not going to lower how people in this are expanded. Obama subs obamacare subsidies that go to households making five hundred eighty five. There is a lot of there. Are child tax credits that max out households making four hundred thousand dollars one of the biggest scams that has been going on in the entire first and i think it started with george w bush giving free and reduced price drugs to seniors who are wealthy back in medicare part d now. You are shoveling money at people like everyone at this table. Who don't need it. Who haven't been hurt economically by the pandemic and then we're saying oh you know what we're helping those poor kids check back and see if they're actually feel like we got to this mental place. Where like we've been talking about. How the debt is out of control since. Ross perot like for thirty years. Like oh my god this debt. We got to this point where it was so out of control and then trump just went fuck it and you know he made it worse just in a quicktime anytime and then i feel like they're in this place now where it's like when you're at four. Am and you're your mind. He'll stay up till the next try to get to sleep at all. I'm just gonna try to pull this off please. Work to is too many and five right. I like fuck it. It's apparently funny money anyway. Just the debated the reckoning is going to be brutal Because the economy is growing in the last quarter of there was like something like four percent economic growth. It's gonna do well without this. It's going to be supercharged. But it is like it's a coke bench. It's gonna burn out. All economists even marxist economists at the university of massachusetts amherst say when you run this level of debt with no sign of stopping it reduces long-term economic growth and that. That's one of the reasons. Why for the past one hundred percent. The budget is to pay off the debt. Were just to pay this money. If interest rates go up for where they are right now which is zero we will spend behind. We may exceed in our interest payments. What we spend on national defense. So i'm not defending the debt. I am defending that. The prioritization that we've seen in the last four years has been way off the mark in terms of what you're right with noise does does this package which to try and balance this and then to set it right at some point into the future if you're but you're saying oh well you know i yellow bellied up to the trough when trump was there and now biden has to have the policy of steroid breaks not austerity. Give poor people people who are struggling right. Let people who are doing. Well paid damn assists. The democratic position was not a fan of the two thousand dollar. I thought that wasn't targeted enough. I thought we should have been much more clever about how we did it. And where we made the investments we could have done great infrastructure investments with that money. So okay i'll give you that but dammit. I am tired of people sitting around and criticizing democrats for taxes span when every time we have a republican president. We go into the debt and deficit. Somehow they when you ask somehow even though it happens every time this pattern every time of the democrats come in and clean up the room that led zeppelin just trash. And then they ask. Who's who's the smell was the party of fiscal responsibility. Also republicans like giving our movie watching the you understand tapes and we have numbers bs. Three reagan did it. Okay all right. So let's because talking about to change the subject keble the turner classic movie i'd like turner classic wants to thing for them But of course in this new era they had to reframe the classic so they have to have a guy come on at the beginning. Yeah see there it is. I'm not. I'm not lying And give a little speech about why movies that you used to just enjoy because you understood. You understood the times. Change people change and mores change. It's called evolution. But now it's called problematic anyway so we yes. It's so it's so obvious and gone with. The wind is on the list breakfast. At tiffany's my fair lady for my fair lady is too rough for them. It was too warning for me when i was my father. Wanted me to go see it. I would okay so but those aren't just the only movies which i'd like to see some of the other ones that they have to give warnings to now. The classics sure would is there some of the other ones. I don't think these really need warnings. They had sleeping beauty. A prince kisses an unconscious woman without consent. See the wizard of oz. A powerful woman of color is murdered. By a rural white girl Psycho inaccurately portrays the lives of the vast majority of transgender motel owners. Rosemary's baby fails to present planned. Parenthood has viable option. Jaws portrays white people as victims. The graduate depicts a problematic age discrepancy. That you can't on the man the the greatest story ever told yes warning portrays positive. Light power imbalance between mary a palestinian teenager and god more powerful man and of course braveheart warning stars mel gibson. So i i swear to god. I don't wanna talk about cancel culture this nonsense every week but i just don't think people understand how much this is a su- nami and how fast the goal posts change almost on a weekly basis. Just literally off the top of my head. Before i wrote down three things i could think of. Not just what you do now. What you do now. It's anything you've ever done. And i can give you examples of that. Not just what you say what you say. It's what now what you listen to. They can get you for that. What you order. Who you say you like any sort of association if you re tweet something if you you know. I like this picture of who was the woman in the mandalorian. When did she do. She likes something she's a nazi. Oh that's right. i'm concerned she's she's your career. She's called the other people not right. Not okay everyone's in nazi now with white. Supremacist mel brooks. Yeah hangs with whites. Subject that defamation. I don't know. I mean it depends on what your definition of white supremacist is. That your the goal goalposts their changed a lot. Guy in a clan hood. Who i i think we have to be really careful. There's two things that republicans think they're gonna get biden on cancelled culture in this whole dr seuss stuff. That's going on where they're reading green eggs and ham proving that some of these senators can actually read and and and so. We can't ignore the fact that we got. Donald trump was in part because of political correctness. I mean you did. A whole show did over. And when people say tells it the way it is the guy lied every day repeatedly and the reason why they thought he told that the way it is because he wasn't politically correct and so when people think they have to parse every word. Oh and i can't think about this. That is that is what's going to drive. People crazy as going to further divide coldly this country but i am so sick of the republicans using the phrase cancel culture to somehow victimized republican party part of the agency and i realized heidi you are you. You're a recovering senator. Let's talk about this. In terms of republicans and democrat. And who's going to win a seat in the senate or the house or anything like that. Let's talk about it differently. David shore your previous guest. He was canceled caress linked. He tweeted a link to a princeton political scientists. Who happens to be black. Who wrote about the effects of violent versus non violent protests in the nineteen sixties elections. David shore got fire. Because of that. You know this is what we're talking about data. We need just tweeted. We need to have a different kind of conversation. It's steinmeyer you're looking bound. We're looking forward. The wrong perpetrator the wrong. Like like you take teen vogue right. They shouldn't have fired her people who don't know what you're talking about. Okay well the who lost. Her name is alexi dinner many times on. She's twenty seven. Okay you just got a great job. Well lost a great job editor of teen rogue and because she tweeted in high school. This is high school. And i have a list of some of the tweets. Now you know some of them you bandwagoning homo ha ha. You're so gay. Laugh my ass. Off i mean really. Yeah people this is this site you say something shit private. We can't legislate that away. I think this woman is home. Also woman of luck sake so we people talk shit about each other in private speeding. That i'm saying everybody's like oh all the people out there who are their economic right to say. I'm not going to support that product. Because i don't agree with what you stand for that. Your economic rate teen vogue should have said look. That happened a long time ago. That's ridiculous in schools. I know but they were so afraid of any kind of run like bucket up you know. Corporate america needs to stop buying into this stuff and just write your your corporate and somebody has to solve balls. Corporate america is not interesting during doing that but there is. I think we have to look at the kind of ideology of woke nelson. And it really is like all of the fire and brimstone all of the damnation of christianity without any possibility of forgiveness or salvation. It is a warped ideology. I think it's taking the place of religion in many people's lives because it's this. It's this total picture. It is starkly right and wrong and you know it's delusional and and it needs to be engaged at the corporate level but also at the individual level. This is the flip side of if you hear people making really stupid shitty asian american jokes you also have to call up people who are saying. Everybody is a racist. Everything is a racist or what you said when you were in high school defines you when you're a joint anything from the previous guest. The small sliver of people who are out there on twitter causing this trouble the wo- kness is not a big political movement. It is it is very big big and publishing. It's big yeah right. That's because they don't they don't wanna take a risk. Probably something university presidents are the worst. They don't want any controversy on university's presence. You know it's like well we can't have that person. Well you know what your university you should have. All views presented and protect people when they come on your campus. I feel like we're we're. This is a very nice. This is like the united nations and then the world outside doesn't ever shed so we. I mean we need to figure out ways to engage people who are like no. I am hurt when i hear something or when somebody says something that offends me. Then that's the equivalent of violence. This is part of the problem. Words are not the equivalent of violence and we need to get back to best understand. I'm saying these. The number of people who sit in that space are very minimal. And it's explosive. People are exploited in the kind of era of. We want to not to politicize how you feel kind of era so so my my argument. Republicans are no. Because i think it happens on both sides. The war on christmas is just like whoa kness right. It is of course there snowflakes to yeah but but they don't control the media. Go away these brats do. That's the problem. Who do i don't think it was republicans who got elected a lot of republicans at teen vogue or no and i never thought i would live in an arab. I remember watching movies about the fifties and the blacklist era when people would whisper that you were communist and all it took was somebody informing on you and saying oh they saw you at a rally or at some peace march and you were branded and your career was over. Or you are on the blacklist people go to parties now and they like they don't wanna talk they're like can i talk. I don't know your girlfriend. She might be woke really. I'm not making this up. People this informant thing this. It's not just what you do. It's what you don't report. that's another way. The goal post moved. I was reading about this guy. Winston marshall d banjo player and mumford and sons. Okay i remember when they were a thing for about the time it took to take a piss. This guy tweeted out that he liked the book. It's a book called unmasked. I never heard of it. You never heard of it. It's apparently not favorable to antifa so it's criticizing antiques. Okay people write books. He tweeted out finally had the time to read your important book. You're a brave man to the author. Now we asked to step away. Everyone's always stepping away from the band. Oh my god and this is his apology again. So soviet over the past few days. I have come to better understand. The pain caused by the book. I endorsed. what would you hit somebody over the head with it. I have offended. Not only a lot of people i don't know. But also those closest to me including my bandmates what a bunch of pussies they must be. And for that i am truly sorry. It's so stalinesque. It's you know what. I can read what i want. I'm a musician. don't worry again. He would have said that. And you know and this is also creeping into legislation In texas the governor and the senate are poised pass A law that would basically make social mater content moderation on social media illegal. Because they're saying that religious people are being banned from twitter and facebook in colorado people are trying to ban hate speech Legislators this creeps in. It's not simply the private sector. And we are in a paroxysm of a contraction of free speech. And this is something you were talking about being a classic liberal. I think there's something libertarians liberals and conservatives can all agree on free speech that last board south dakota good as governor christie gnome yes was gonna sign a transgender bill. And by the way you know saying they can't play girls sports really that. That's the biggest issue ever in south dakota apparently because there it's getting a lot of attention across the board guess. What amazon came in they were going to put a plant there and they said you know we might not like all of a sudden kristi noem gets religion that maybe that isn't the right thing to do. So let's see if she signs the bill and this is where that that use of economic power can actually be used to the good time to talk about that issue. Maybe next time all right. Thank you final time for new roles thoroughly now. That a new. Hbo documentary claims that the founder of queuing on q. Himself is actually ron watkins. A thirtysomething in insul- who lives in japan surrounded by comic books and a doll for a girlfriend can't going on followers admit they spent the last two years worshiping someone. They would have beat up in highschool congratulations. You made a god out of the grub hump delivery guy neuro this company that promises to deliver viagra discreetly to your door has to tell me. What's the alternative marching then forms into the shape of a penis and shows up outside my house. It's a box in the mail. What's not discreet the pharmacist at cvs. Shouting after you remember. If there's any problems with your erections call me neuronal. Make sure your symbolic gesture doesn't just confuse everybody. I'm sure the red face paint of these protesters and chile has a deep meaning. But i can't help but think of my grandmother trying to put on lipstick in the car. Neural stop using the phrase plain vanilla vanilla flavor just like any other. It comes from the vanilla bean. You know another flavor comes from a bean chocolate but you don't hear the mainstream media using the term plain chocolate but plain vanilla. That somehow okay. Well it isn't okay. i'm tucker carlson. Good night trying to get my tucker face. Eurosummit has to tell lexa voss who teaches sheep cuddling seminars on her farm in all mine. Seem more appealing. If this sheep didn't have a look on her face that says oh boy. I know where this is headed and finally new rule. If you believe in the philosophy of equality of outcomes then you really shouldn't have watched the grammys last sunday. Because the grammys aside from the usual award show virtue. Signaling are still largely about the idea that certain people do music better than others and it's okay to reward them for it that's called meritocracy and it's the opposite of guaranteed outcomes equality of outcomes as opposed to equality of opportunity. We used to call that by another name trophy syndrome. A world that was world that was created back in the nineties where everybody every kid gets a trophy no matter how good or bad they are at something well. The result of that kind of thinking is that american kids now have a totally deluded and under and belief in their charm brains and talich. It's not only that the entire generation wants to be famous. It sent they think not. Being famous isn't fair if you think i'm exaggerating. Let me quote from this article in rolling stone magazine last year lamenting how streaming has not given us a quality of outcomes in the music industry. Oh the grammy's would look quite different if we followed this template. The article tells us that more than one point. Six million million artists released songs between january twenty nine teen and july twenty twenty four thousand tracks day on spotify and yet rolling stone complains. Today's streaming landscape looks a lot like the music industry used to a small class of artists. See not just the majority of activity but damn near all of it. Yes these are called the good ones. I mean yes. Of course a big talent can fall through the cracks but in general it's simply a case that most people who tried their hand at music right the songs that don't make the whole world sing rolling stone complains that quote nearly all the streams went to artists in the top ten percent with the bottom ninety percent pulling in just point six percent of streams. Whoa let me get this. Straight talented artists. People like are listened to more than untalented ones. They don't stop the presses. Yes that's meritocracy. If people don't like your song your mommy can't make them listen to it. You know why ninety nine percent of artists aren't getting hurt because music is hard and most people suck at it for more details. Google reality rolling stone actually writes the sentence in a perfect world. The bottom one percent of artists would get one percent of activity. No they wouldn't. That's a stupid world. i don't wanna live in. Who taught you this nonsense. And when you wind that streaming hasn't just upheld the gap between music's haves and have not it's widened. You're making my case for me because streaming allows the public to sample everybody. There's no more gatekeepers can't complain. No one heard your song because no label would sign you. We toward that wall down and the result was the same. Some musicians are have nots because yes they may have voice but we have ears. It reminds me of the early audition rounds of the old american idol where contestants are all attitude and image as if to say clean not focus so much on the talent and just skip the part to where the part. I'm going to get to be an idol. Seventy two percent of gen z. Say they'd like to be an online celebrity and fifty four percent of gen z and millennials say they would become an influence her given the opportunity. You know if it wasn't too much work like making a sex date. Speaking of which come paris hilton just made just made a return to the limelight revealing that the ditsy party girl we knew back in the day was just her playing a character and that there really was more to her than sex tapes driving drunk carrying around a little dog. And saying that's hot. I mean what about her work on the human genome project. You know what any jokes i did about paris. I don't feel bad. Sorry not sorry i just can't. I can't be living in this time. When we're madly on the hunt for anything with the slightest with white privilege and then feel bad for paris hilton quite the reverse. Maybe paris is the one who owes us an apology for being patient zero for today's vapid entitled famous for nothing culture she kind of birthed the world where every fifteen year old with. The phone aspires to be an influencer. She's the face that launched a thousand little shits. Paris led directly to the kardashians and then do housewives and teen moms and heidi's generation of young girls who look up to the role models who managed to turn and unenthusiastic blowjob into an empire. Young people who think talent mitalent is being me and you wanting to live my life. Kylie jenner is a billionaire based on her ability to sit near a pool for the generations. Who are always on and on about this is my voice and i have something to say an awful lot of that. Something is about lip gloss. Thank my guest. Heidi heitkamp and david shourie were great. Crowd i thank you very much. We'll new episodes of real time with bill maher every friday night at ten or watch him anytime. Hbo on demand for more information log on hbo dot com.

Joe biden biden heidi heitkamp Donald trump Barack obama Ted florida megan harry david shore david stacey abrams america democratic party senate Christopher ray marilyn strickland
About That Blowup With Geraldo Last Night (Ep 1498)

The Dan Bongino Show

59:17 min | 5 months ago

About That Blowup With Geraldo Last Night (Ep 1498)

"Get ready to hear the truth about america on a show that's not immune to the facts with your host. Dan bongino allowing anyone else to do it anymore. I'm not and you should neither. Everyone stopped the whole lot. We we do this in the beginning of the show. We're throwing the red flag this laundry on the field folks. I'm not a look to play going for review anytime. I hear someone on television when i'm on keeps going to craft the flesh anytime. I hear someone injecting race into an argument racism racialism or any other thing without any evidence to it. You're going to get called out period period. Full stop morowski. What am i talking. About how little blow up with geraldo last night. You may have seen it. We'll get to that today. Don't go anywhere today. show brought to you by express. Vpn you have a right to privacy. Defended online get a vpn vpn dot com slash bongino. Welcome to dan bongino show. Let's get to it. I've got a few cuts from the show today. I've also i need to address. The current controversy surrounding tucker carlson again liberal media lunatics and their interest group buddies trying to get tucker carlson fired for the sixty seven point five fifth time or something. They show you. Jenny sell listen. It's the final week for chamonix spring clearance event. We can get the brand new not deep correcting absolutely free. That's right your order today. The classic genucell for bags and puffiness includes. Ot for free again. Say goodbye to puffiness blotchy. Skin crows feet acne scars and even those pesky sunspots good. It's time to open up. Get out feel great about how you look get compliments or simply get one hundred percent of your money back order genucell now and shamanee will include genucel immediate effects results in minutes also free results guaranteed a one hundred percent of your money back. I do you get the deal. Go to genucel dot com. Enter my discount code. Dan forty dan four zero at checkout for an instant discount off your audience. Crazy sale gets even better though. What a right now and get the classic genucel treatment to tighten and tone the chin neck area also free plus a surprise luxury gift. All orders today are upgraded the free priority pick. How do you get the deal. Go to genucel dot com jeon. Ucla dot com genucel dot com. Use my promo code. Dan forty four zero check out. All right joe what by the way. What a catastrophic disaster before the show this morning amazing. I'm in such a good mood. We've had everything from joe's technical stuff crapping out to my entire power of my entire power grid. My house going down. It's amazing we're going to get this show out close to on time today. Really if you only knew what happened before the show today and last night i had a hard time sleeping because i was so geeked up after my after my fireworks with geraldo. So what's going on again as i said before. I'm tired of it. I'm not doing this anymore. okay. I'm not going to allow you on television because liberals told you to do it or someone some some interest group or someone is pushing you into it if you're going to inject race into a situation without having any of the facts you're getting called out and you should do what you do. Your friends your neighbors everyone else. If you have evidence someone acted in some capacity and their motives were racist and call them out. They deserve it. If you don't then shut up until you know stuff was i talking about well. Not hannity last night and had my typical debate with geraldo. I have a lot on the hannity show on fox nine. Pm eastern time. Casey missed it. And of course you know. I had said yesterday on fox and friends that this shooting of dante right in minnesota by this police officer. We've now seen the video. I'm not gonna play. You've probably seen it a thousand times. It appears she was trying to taes dante. Right pulled out a firearm. Shot dante right. Who later drove off. Wild shot crashed and died later. This appears at this point to be a tragic accident. People are held accountable for accidents all the time. But i feel like many of you that the officer like anyone else. Being an american citizen should get due process musket due process. Not should because that's what a constitutional republic does well. Before i get to the all thing. Of course they had a racial. Is this everyone on the laugh because dante right is black and the officers a female. A white officer. So they've no evidence race motivated anything but look new. York post story will be in my newsletter today. Dante right shooting happened in brooklyn center brooklyn center city manager fired after call for do process for police officer. You understand the left. I'm not kidding. I'm not messing with you. I'm not toying with you. It's not hyperbole. you understand. The left wants a third world republic right now they want a third world oligarchy. Run by little mini tyrants. That's all they want. If you even dare to say something like the brooklyn center where this happen brooklyn center said the city manager say the officers should get due process like anyone else being accused of being accused of a crime by many people on the left of a homicide of a murder. Pretty serious charge. You know city manager says the officer gets due process. The city manager got fired. Got fired for saying that. They want a third world republic the left. That's what they want. They want that that you ever see a was it. The dark knight. The batman movie with the scarecrow member that your comic book movies like me right the scarecrow. They have the khuda. Fake court everybody. Well everybody's guilty everybody's and even when you're not guilty you still have to walk out on the ice. That's what they want. God forbid the officers subjected to an investigation and we find out the facts of the case before we jump to conclusions to start a race war in america. Maybe not a good idea folks. Maybe not a good idea so of course coming into my interview with her although i was really pissed off about this whole thing because we don't know anything yet. So here's what happened. Here's how it started off. Here's caught one from my fireworks tonight with geraldo. It doesn't start out that well but again her. All the wants to reinvent everything. Yes that many facts about the situation at all. Check this out her. All those perfectly entitled to an opinion you know just because you were in a police officer doesn't mean you can't comment on policing issues. I always hate when liberals say that about us but you know whatever going to dinner with a police. Captain doesn't i'm not suggesting you are. I'm just saying that you don't don't minimize harm and geraldo. Would you mind the foundation advisor. Geraldo lightness to lebanon him. Talk that we'll let you guys go back and forth tired of this guy. Dan he's always got something to say. Go back to your statement up now again. As i was saying he's entitled to an opinion he's not entitled to a certain set of facts. You don't know anything about actual policing if you haven't done it saying or suggesting you can relate to the experience of police officers you can. I'm not suggesting what happened yesterday. Wasn't a tragedy. it was obviously. There's a dead young man who's never gonna take another breath of oxygen again in his life. We don't have all the facts on this. We know she said peyser appears appears to be a mistake at a fatal one. Well little backstory. I was i not an excuse for anything and not excusing. Excuse for by you. All work hard is not a sob story. Please but i had a really long day yesterday long day. Like going on obviously with the radio show coming up business stuff. I'm planning and all this other stuff. So by the time i got on the air. My blood glucose use a biological marker for my fatigue was probably at record lows. I my my tolerance for b. Was about uab big last night. I don't like telling people to shut up on the air. But i'm sorry last night. He deserved it. I didn't get but two sentences in to my commentary and he's already interrupting me geraldo so again i i. I'm not a big fan of telling people to shut up on the air. But he deserved it yesterday. So sorry that sorry but he started off. I don't wanna play the whole thing. You mentioned that high whatever go out to dinner with this guy. Been around cops or put him. That's terrific and. I'm not suggesting that people haven't been police. Officers can't comment on policing issues. That's absurd not a woman. But i comment on things like pro-life issues all the time but i also acknowledging i don't know what the obviously what the men and women i can't get pregnant. I am a man. I don't know what it's like the birthday which i was there when my children were born by wife look like she was in a lot of pain but i although i can see the pain and empathize with her. I don't know what it's like. I get really tired about people who are entitled to an opinion. I am not trying in any way to silence anymore to suggest. You shouldn't comment a police issue. You should absolutely. I'm just saying that maybe have a little bit of a sober attitude about the experience of policing use of force situations. If you've never actually been in one not suggesting you can or should you should absolutely in a constitutional republic look back and analyze use of force instance from police. I'm just suggesting that the commentary should be a little more sober rather than suggesting. You understand exactly what it's like because you don't the officers actions can and should be analysed and investigated. This mistake resulted in a fatality. If it turns out there been one we haven't even had her side of the story yet. If it is she will be held accountable. But maybe a little more sober analysis from people like geraldo. Who because you had dinner with a cop once air. Police officer police chief whatever he said before. That doesn't mean you understand what it's like to be in that situation a little more humility so it didn't start out. Well here's where it went. So geraldo had to inject of course racing to this because again the subject was black. The police officer was a female white. Police officer apparently had twenty six years on the job. She was not new but here we go with the injecting race into the debate with no facts or data to back up that there was any racial motive to this thing at all. Let's just burn the country down inject race into everything. Besides not knowing jack squat about what actually happened yet or what was in the officer. Let's this is what liberals and geraldo does all the time. Check this out. But we have a process for that and just injecting race into this geraldo which you do on these issues constantly when you have none of the data you have no evidence whatsoever. There's the issue again. I don't you have an argument to make it not making you the issue. I'm responding to your dopey comments. You have no idea that there's a racial undertone to this at all. And you're saying oh black parents have really because there are no no dennis back that up at all. You're all blind s further inflaming. The actuation and the country will burn to the ground. Because people like you who say dumb things like that with no evidence to back it up again. My tolerance for racialized bs last night was about big. We have a tragedy. we have a young man. Who's dead. We have a police officer involved. In a use of force incident that was literally deadly serious. We still don't have the facts all of the facts behind the case not that we can't discuss it we should but we don't have all the facts we don't have the police officers account of it yet but we see the video and we should comment on it. We are citizens of the united states. Subjected to police officers who have the most powerful power in the entire world to take a life. But maybe before ladies and gentlemen before we inject the racial motive. We should actually see what happens in the investigation. That's the officer of a history of racism. Are there some social media post with the officer using the n. Word engaging in racial politics pledging allegiance to some white supremacist. Is there any evidence of that at all. So how would you know that. So why would you say is. I'm sorry but i get really aggravated about this stuff. Can you do your homework before. You have half the country biting at each other over an alleged racism since you don't even know involve racism. Maybe it's a good idea to shut your soup cooler and find out what happened before you start ascribing racist motives to a situation. You don't even understand the entire totality of the circumstances around maybe pipe down just a little bit and show some humility of course not though had to pour gasoline on it last night. I wasn't having any of it and you shouldn't either if the officer is a history of racism and we find out that there may have been some racial motive here. Then she'll damn well pay for it but we have seen none of that. There is no evidence of that and as for geraldo is absurd statements. Here that black americans somehow are some increased danger from police officers. Maybe again before you say something like that. You're calling yourself a reporter you've been at your you say you're a journalist although then maybe no the actual data before you go spout off the data. Well here's the actual data from a wall street journal piece. We've now put up three or four times because liberals out there as we discussed on yesterday show don't actually know anything. Go back and watch yesterday's show and you'll see what i'm talking about. Here's the actual data wall street journal opinion piece. The headline by claiming systemic racism in policing defies the science. So there's a stomach racism and police and we should be able to find it right well. The department of justice did an actual survey on this they compared arrest rates by police supplied by the fbi uniform crime reporting system if found that for non fatal violent crimes that victims said were reported to police that whites accounted for forty eight percent of offenders and forty six percent of arrestees blacks accounted for thirty five percent of offenders and thirty three percent of arrestees asians accounted for two percent of offenders and one percent of arrestees. Listen to this liberals geraldo cotton out of your ears and stick it in your mouth for a minute. You could make statements like this. Then listen to this next line. Because the next line at the quote ron santa's will disabuse you unquote of the stupid narrative. You keep pumping out there. That police are hunting. Black men and minorities around the country quote wall street journal. I'm of these differences between the percentage of offenders and the percentage of arrestees of a given race where statistically significant the data's obviously limited to non-fatal crimes because murder victims can identify their salience. There is no evidence whatsoever to back this up. You were saying something that is going to divide america. That black men and minorities are being hunted by. Police are increased danger from police. And you have no data back. So why would you say. If you don't have data to back it up you would say it because you want to instigate racial strife in this country. I don't know you wanna raise. I don't know you petitioning for a job with some liberal group or option c. Are you just really dumb. Let me go to the how this wrapped up again. I hate. i'm sorry. I don't like playing videos of myself but it's not about me here. It's about the constant injecting race into every single situation in america which is tearing this country to pieces to shreds in front of our very eyes. And i'm not having and you shouldn't either anymore is part three of the interview again. Geraldo asking the question. Talking about why black men should be scared of cops. Black men should be scared of cops. Going enroll icus geraldo says so not. Because there's data to back that up check this out. How people like you. That don't credit the humanity of half the country they are. They are running really weird and they are scared of cops and it doesn't matter thing we love wives. Why blue light wider or that thin line between civilization. what's nine white white produce actual data. You're a reporter right. Here's halls hit a twenty year. Old kid has an expired registration. He ends up dead in the same. George floyd was a sex fizi aided whether by a brutal cops in the on his national by does don't you seeing rubbing vick's wait hold on to incidence you've extrapolated as a reporter data that every big irish afraid of the police and that's rational you. That's rational explained to the fair fair question right so from these two incidences. George floyd dante. Right to use of force instance. One we have a criminal trial going on right now. The instant saddam right. We'll have a full investigation from those two incidents in a country of three hundred thirty million people geraldo rivera as a reporter has stated unequivocally that black men and women and minority families should worry about police implying. What police are hunting them down. That's that's that and that's that's journalism that's reasonable to you that makes sense to you. You have no data to back that up. I just showed you the department of justice's bjs their own statistics on that showing you that there is no systemic. There's no data about systemic racism and police in the back that up at all and you continue to pour gasoline on the fire. Me answer the question for you. Why are minorities scared of police officers in many cases because of people like geraldo who tell them to be. You know you may laugh cry. Ragent me clap with me. I don't know i don't know anymore but i'm telling you this and you have my word. I'm doing my best. Tried to bring this country together despite my leftist enemies in their protest stations. Otherwise oh dan bongino conspiracy theories rage baba at their. Their criticisms are absurd and ridiculous. I'm the one and people like me. Many people like me who are trying to get past the racial politics this country and get down to facts and data. No-one abhors is disgusted more by racism. Misogyny raining alston me. You may be as upset about it as i am. But you're not going to be more but injecting race into a situation. We still don't fully understand while there's an investigation going on and saying on national television that black men and minorities have some reason to fear the police despite no evidence to back that up at all in a systemic way. No evidence to back that up. It's just disgusting. And i don't like telling people to shut up but sometimes you should really shut up until you know the fax the other side of this. I want to get to an important point about this. The democrats will implode on this issue. They will absolutely implode on this policing issue. And i've got a tweet by receipt at the lead to prove it and the data to back it up because we facts and data on the show unlike geraldo today. Show brought to you by one of my favorites. Especially when i'm hungry. Nino break my friends at omaha. Summer's almost here. That means backyard grill outs. No backyard grill atas complete without omaha steaks ordered the mouth-watering. Let's go grill package today. Visit omaha steaks dot com and enter keyword bongino in the search bar to save over forty five percents big savings. Plus you'll get the tasty of twelve ultra juicy maha stakes burgers free. That's almost four pounds of free birds. I'm laughing because you won't eat another bur dis. I watched that show in the history channel food and go right and make my omaha steaks. Bor stop it off you twenty dollars off your first daughter. The let's go grow. Package includes four butcher cut filet mignons four boneless pork chops one pound of chicken breasts four copa sausages and so much more. Here's to warmer days filled with fun family memories and epoch. Backyard grill outs. Featuring the best steak beats of your life guaranteed. Here's how you got this deal going to omaha. Steaks dot com use. Promo code bongino b. o. n. In the search bar and for a limited time you'll get twelve free omaha steaks burgers and on your first order. Get twenty dollars off a checkout. That's omaha steaks dot com put in keyword bongino. Get this deal. You're gonna love this. This is a family favorite in the bongino house. I don't like reading the spot at this time. Because i get super hungry. It makes my mouth water thinking about the burgers hamburguesas delicious like that key speaks twenty seven languages. She's like the c three. B o of producers ram this. Cps ten million languages. or something. like that. I came back to serious up. The democrats will totally implode on this issue because they can't control themselves. What issue obviously useless. The defunding pilot useless. I mean destructive. There's a use for them. they think it's politically advantageous. Some democrats keep calling for defunding the police and using as a vehicle to de-fund the police the false narrative that police officers are hunting down. Minorities in america's big cities you get this narrative for them is based on a lie. You wanna talk about the big lie. The big lies at police officers around. America are targeting minorities for arrest prosecution and in some cases in the more outrageous liberal narrative for murder to murder them on the street for no reason. It is a false fake made up invented narrative. You understand that. They are using that fake narrative to call for things like defunding the police which will absolutely make them employment. Here's what i mean the rage they're uncontrollable democrat rage. They're always like republicans. Read republicans no democrats inter angry. They're uncontrollable rage overrides there. Who is the biggest rage machine of all right now. Receded to leave. This is her official blue checkmark social media account congresswoman from michigan received to leave. This was a tweet after the dante. Right instant and it wasn't an accident. Quote policing in our country is inherently an intentionally racist. She has no evidence of that. All this is not a smart person. She is making this up because she is a rage machine who cannot control herself at all. She has no evidence as she goes on dante right was met with aggression and violence. I am done with those who condone government. Funded murder poke murder. I mean this is a lawsuit for her but will save. She may have a. You may want to lawyer up no more policing chicago. More not even know more police at all. No more policing incarceration and militarization. It can't be reformed this. This is a member of the united states. Congress on her official blue begins. Throwing you gotta throw the flagged up keep you need through the fence a first time. We've seen a return throw the way yes i do. I got the yellow flag to penalties everywhere. We not only have a penalty. We have a red flag. We are going under the hood for review right here. Are you serious. No to repeat it because i know someone will send this to you clearly. You you're totally unreasonable. I mean that's obvious right. Now you are on your actual blue checkmark account as a member of the us congress calling for the abolition of our military and our police department. She wants to go total walking and walking dead. You'd have officer rick walking dead. She wants to go total anarchy. Total anarchy bob. What's the book of. Eli style no police. No nothing roving gangs. Everywhere i guess will enforce the law roving begnaud. What do they want sociologist. Roving bands of psychologists to enforce the law in american city. This is a member of congress. Now i started this telling you. Democrats would implode on this issue so dan. What's your evidence. That democrats cheated leib. Who have a big voice calling for absurdities like the abolition of our military and policing. What's your evidence they'll implode in this issue l. Listen to my evidence. Listen to the democrats evidence and we'll be going back to this article multiple times today. Show this new york magazine. An article is cited now a couple of times. Because it's an article in an interview done within person. You should get to know quite well. He's not one of us. he's a liberal. His aim is david he was a member of the obama. Campaign is upholster. But he's not stupid. The articles entitled david shore on why trump was good for the gop. Oh yeah that's what it says and how the dams can win in two thousand twenty two. This is a new yorker article. Again within. Obama pollster named david shore. If you have not read this article it is in my newsletter. Today i can listen. I am under no authority to give you homework. Nor would i dare. Homework has a negative connotation. But i'm begging you to please read this article. It's long but read it. Start to finish about how. The democrats are absolutely imploding. Right now whether you know it or not and dan. The election didn't go away. Please read the article. This is again written by a democrat and a liberal member of the media from what i know. This is them worrying about the future of their party. Not me them. Quote new york mag in the summer following the emergence of defunding the police as a nationally salient issue support for biden among hispanic voters decline. So i think you could tell this micro story of an ideologically charged issue that millions of non white voters dis agreed with us on rashid. At leib doesn't care. She cannot control her rage at the police and the military. Even this is why call it. An explosive implosion and not an explosion. They're collapsing on themselves. There's no external fuse. Being lit rashida to leave in the radical leftist lunatics. Will their rage will cause them to implode and collapsed on themselves. Nothing has to be done to them. From the outside there will be no fuse that needs to be lit. They will explode their own party because they are consumed with rage against our police. Our military receipt to leave is not dumb strategically and apt clearly clearly raging had our police and military. But she's not dumb. She has to know this position. Democrats own words. Read this article bungee dot com slash newsletter. It's in my newsletter today. Bongino dot com slash newsletter. Read it today please. The entire articles written by liberals about why the democrat party is going to be doomed because people calling for defunding the police which ironically minority voters hate that position why because conservatives don't treat minority voters like idiots like liberals do liberals treat them like morons. Oh they those black voters those in are they don't like the police and if it's really have you ever asked them about that. Because i'm reasonably confident. Black mothers and fathers and hispanic mothers and fathers and asian mothers and fathers care when their kid gets mugged on the way to school. I'm pretty sure. I'm reasonably confident that that's an accurate analysis but when you're a liberal and you have no respect for black hispanic voters because you're a hardcore racist. That's what liberals are now you just say. Oh they those black voters. They don't care about that. They all hate they. All they all hate. The police say they do. Have you actually asked black. Voters clearly. Not but david david short david shore did. Yeah david short did in this in this piece. David shore google s black voters. And that's not what hispanic and black voters are telling them about the funding. The police they will implode mark my words. The democrat party will implode and the quicker. It happens the better. This is destructive racist. Anti american anti liberty party the quicker it collapses on itself the better next. I need this right now. But i want to get to this next segment to after this. It's important to go back to this. New york mag article new york magazine article in relationship to another controversy brewing. Right now that again is being completely ginned up by leftists. Many of them who are racist themselves. I have the evidence right here. It's right in front of your face. We conservatives will fight against racism to the day we die sadly identity politics merchants on the left. Continue to stoke the flames folks. Wouldn't it be great if they were pocket-sized guide that help you sleep. Focus act and be better. It's my new go-to while there is if you have ten minutes heads space can change your life head spaces your daily dose of mindfulness in the form of a guided. Meditation guided meditations in an easy to use app head. Space is one of the only meditation apps. Advancing the field of mindfulness meditation through clinically validated. Research so whatever. The situation is head space. Really can't help you feel better. You overwhelmed a little bit about that. Head space has three minute. Sos meditation for you. You need some help falling asleep. I do head. Space has winedown sessions. Their members swear by head spaces approach to mindfulness. Can reduce stress proves sleep boost focus and increase your overall sense of wellbeing. I've used this repeatedly throughout the day. Go train kilo the fall asleep at night head. Space is backed by twenty five published studies on his benefits. Six hundred thousand five star reviews and over sixty million downloads head. Space makes it easy for you to build a life. Changing meditation practice with mindfulness. That works for you on your schedule. Anytime anywhere you deserve to feel happier and head spaces. Meditation made simple. How do we get this. It's very simple. go to head. Space dot com slash. Bongino that's head space dot com slash bongino for a free one month trial with access to head spaces full library meditations for every situation. This is the best deal offered right now. Go to head. Space dot com slash bongino. Today could all use a little groundedness right now. All right so getting back to this other brewing controversy right now and it's a fake controversy because it's being jammed up by the left to again in this scenario are the actual racist. So let's go to alinsky rule number four. I talked about this on. What's alinsky saul. Alinsky is rule number four. Make the enemy live up to your own rules folks. That's it that is rule number four. Make the enemy live up to. Its own book of rules. I talked about it on jesse water. Show filling in this weekend. What am i mean by that. Well what does the linski mean by that. You're going to set down a series of ground rules about who's a racist and who's not and maybe you shouldn't be a racist yourself. Get into the story. Some background so the washington post. He's an article by jacqueline peiser. Washington post the anti-defamation league demands fox news fire tucker carlson this again like the hundredth time. Someone's demanded tucker. Carlson be over anti semitic trope quote. This has deadly significance. So let me just sum up the controversy. For you tucker. Carlson did an interview with mark stein last week. Excuse me mark. Stein is filling in on fox at seven pm. He was doing the weekly show and mark stein interviewed tucker and tucker had commented about how the democrats would like nothing more than to replace certain voters with illegal immigrants in the country because they wanna maintain power while of course the ad l. and others jumped down tucker's throat may trying to make a racism issue out of this game they have no evidence that tucker's actual racists. They wanted to make a racism issue out of this because they want to have tucker fired because he's very effective at combating a lot of liberal argument so they hate him so the media liberal interest group. I have it listed as a media liberal interest groups. You know like the eddie brock. Venom simione right. The media interest group simione. They decided to rage against tucker's illegal immigration stance and his discussion with mark stein and again demanded he be fired for suggesting for a moment that democrats are looking for some replacement voters tucker addressed this last night. Now if the ad l. is right and suggesting that the democrats are looking to replace certain sets of voters explained to minimize has nothing to do with race at all and i'll actually produce you know data this has to do with illegality and shifts in power. Here's tucker explaining last night. That if the adl's right the anti-defamation any discussion of replacement voters is grounds for termination. Then i'm expecting the new york times to fire the author who wrote this piece checkout tucker last night that's not a slur. It's not a guess. We know it because they brag about it constantly. The left becomes unhinged. If you point out that american voters are being replaced by democratic party loyalists from other countries. You're actually not allowed to say that. But they're allowed to say that and they do they say it all the time. They've done studies on it. Written long books about it talked about it endlessly on television often in the ugliest racial terms. They're not ashamed at all. They don't think they have to be ashamed. In the fall of two thousand eighteen a columnist the new york times wrote a piece that was literally entitled. We can replace them in case you do. The them was the column told you. Explicitly face to demographic change the author noted with hearty approval. The state of georgia will soon be controlled by democrats quote. The potential is there georgia's less than fifty three percent non hispanic white end quote again. That's a new york times countless. It's not some cunanan blogger. They tell you that demographic replacement is an obsession on the right. No it's not. They said some horrifying right wing conspiracy theory. The right is obsessed with it. No the left is obsessed with it. in fact it's the central idea of the modern democratic party. Demographic replacement is their obsession. because it's they're path to power so just to be clear here again using reason we're trying to use reason is that reason is better correct. I'm not wrong right. Reason is always better the democrats the new york times literally write an article about replacing certain voters in the united states with other voters that will be more advantageous to them keeping power. That is literally not figuratively an article in the new york times and when it's addressed by conservatives the left's obsession with replacement voters are literal article. We should be fired for addressing the left's infatuation with replacement voters are you if you're having a difficult time processing this because you're not a moron you're probably quite bright new. That doesn't make a lot of sense. So the ad l. wants tucker carlson fired for addressing illegal immigration. That leftists in the new york. Times wrote is a strategy for replacement voters. Well you may think. Gosh it's it's just the new york times calling for replacement voters or people in the new york times. No no tucker went on. There's part due to this. Here's the second part of that. If you want to watch the whole thing by the way you can check it out six minutes. But i don't have time for the entire thing but here's tucker exposing julian. Castro prominent leftist democrat ran for president was an official in the obama administration. So i'm expecting today the anti-defamation linked to call for the termination of that new york times author at all if she works may have been an opinion right or not sure but she should never write for the new york times again and the l. should call for that today. I'm sure but also for hooley in castro should they should call for an apology today from hooghly and castro who actually openly bragged as tucker says about this replacement voter feary. They have check this out several years ago. Future obama cabinet section secretary julian castro went on. Cbs to explain why texas will soon be democratic state. In a couple of presidential cycles. You'll be on election night. You'll be announcing that. We're calling the thirty eight electoral votes of texas for the democratic nominee for president. It's changing it's going to become a purple state and then a blue state because of the demographics because of the population growth of folks from outside of texas no-one attack castro for saying that no one asked who these quote folks from outside texas might be or why they had a right to control the future of people who already lived in texas. Nobody said a word about it seem normal. It was normal. It still is normal in washington. What qualifies a shocking is any real attempt to protect. Democracy is the ad l. She would demand for an apology from julian. Castro ordonio no again. It's just conservatives when they mentioned liberals infatuation and love affair with replacement voters based on their own words and writings. it's just liberals who get get a pass on that liberals can talk about whatever they want it to conservatives who were always racist despite no evidence whatsoever that anything tucker said had any racist intent at all. Listen folks let me just be straight with you. Because i don't have time to waste ear. It's an hour long show. I met tucker twice. I've said maybe less than fifty words. He's very nice to my wife in dallas. One time we met. We were in a green room. I was doing some work with fox he was doing. I believe show from dallas the dallas bureau and i ran into dc at the state of the union at a fox event. One time maybe said ten words each other. I don't know tucker carlson. I'm not friends with tucker carlson. I don't hang out with tucker carlson. I have never heard from anyone ever anywhere. That tucker carlson is a racist or anti immigrant or anything but many of you liberals listening to this show. And i know you do because i get your hate mail in your death threats every day because you know you're all about tolerance and stuff you're convinced tucker carlson's racist you don't have any evidence of that at all but you're convinced and it shows you the power of the media and united states of the media liberal interest group venom. Eddie brock symbiotic. Right now. the symbiotic creature. Because it's all one thing they feed off each other right there. So powerful that they have you believe in something that is not true at all matter of fact the things you attribute to tucker carlson's racism replacement theory or whatever you call. I don't even. I've never heard this as a theory ever is actually an idea on the left. Many of you liberals are hearing this for the first time today. But you won't demand the new york times. Fire this person. Nor will you demand hooley and castro politics because it's okay when you talk about. Now why would they inject race into this despite again having no evidence whatsoever that this is an argument about race at all that it's an argument about power. Well the democrats no. It's not really about race. They're real concern here. It's not replacing racial groups again. We'll use data folks. They're real concern. Is this ready for it. Because maybe we have fifteen minutes left and is going to be the most sport and fifty minutes. We've done in a long time. The democrats and liberals are panicking because they are hemorrhaging absolutely hemorrhaging. An open wound working class. Voters right now. Do you hear me mention anything about race right. There is nothing to do with race at all. The democrats don't care about illegal immigration because they are hemorrhaging working class voters regardless of race. Then you better have some data to back that up. Oh i don't have my data we'll go back to david shores data who's a liberal who worked for obama who in his own analysis has told you what i'm telling you now. The democrats love affair with illegal immigration has nothing to do with race or country of origin is everything to do with power. If illegal immigrants were voting republican democrats who build the wall. Tomorrow it has nothing to do with race. The democrats are becoming the party right now of big business. Big tech tyranny and elites. I'll show you the date in a minute. Let me my last break for this last sponsor and i'll show you again. This has nothing to do with race. They're making it a racist thing because they want him fired. Because they know they'll say that and dopey liberals will of now sounds good to me said really sad what's happens place. Which part of your house is a little less secure than you might want. Is it your first floor. First floor windows a french door for me. It used to be downstairs door. But i never have to worry about that now because of my security system from simply safe which up now there's no time day or night rafter. Worry because i know my house is being is being guarded all the time. Even if you already feel safe they may not be true of everyone in your home. If you've never had a conversation about that it's honestly it's not a bad thing to do right now. You just feel. It's really good to be able to press the home button on my simplisafe keypad and here the say alarm on a hearing at night very refreshing my kids love it and then i know that if anyone did try to come in the alarm would go off and the thing is simply safe just makes it really easy. It takes about two minutes to customize the system on their website their abbas easy to use go to simplisafe dot com slash. Dan bongino safe that simply with an eye. Sim pl i i. Simplisafe dot com slash. Dan bongino the system arrives in about seven days and then it takes thirty minutes to set up. Paula did it for us here. It's really that easy. She's the handy woman in the house. Don't laugh armacost. He knows how not handy. Joe set a policy up did not need a used. Judge was pretty handy. Here's how you get this system. Go to simplisafe dot com slash. Dan bongino today to customize your system and get a free security camera that mindset right there. it's great works like a charm. You also get six a sixty day. Risk-free trial so there's nothing to lose. That's simplisafe dot com slash dan bongino simplisafe dot com slash. Dan bongino go today. All right as i said this is probably going to be the most important few minutes. I've spent on my show with you. In a long time. The democrats are hemorrhaging working class. Voters they love illegal immigration because they feel that even though they're losing working class voters because they're now the big business big tech elite party. They feel that they can remedy the situation and increase their power by bumping their numbers. You don't believe me. Look at this financial times. Headlined why they're hemorrhaging working class voters regardless of race patrick temple west than the financial times top. Us companies increased donations to democratic groups. Executives shift contributions on expectations of biden. Victory november did that. The big business loves the democrats now. These are their new home team. Home team democrats big business. Businesses totally sold us out in america's he coca cola delta. Nfl major league baseball debacle. If that doesn't prove to you that these united airlines american airlines to they don't get a past that they've sold you out. Don't give a damn about you. I don't know what will and our reflexive response for. Business should probably change knowing that big business is seeking the immediate destruction of america. Do racial politics and they know they've got the democrats to do it. All right dan so some extra money is going to democrats. That may be used to go to republicans that doesn't mean. Democrats are no longer the party of working class voters. No the democrats themselves are worried about this. Here's the new york times again questioning. This and a piece is big business. The democrats new best friend. That's the actual title folks. I didn't make it up. That's not bongino dot com. That's the new york times worried about the exact same thing. I just told you the big business party the big tech party the oligarchy party. The we love racism party because that's what a lot of what they do. Our is totally racist are now the far left and working class. Voters are giving them the double barrel middle finger saying nah. I think we're going to go with public zone. No way bongino. That can't possibly be. my wife. Calls me bongino once in awhile. And she's like once in a blue moon. It's kind of funny huge data from an actual democrat. I know the probably call for me to be cancelled again. For citing democrat david shore article in new york mag again. Democrats concerns that working class voters regardless of race are abandoning the big business. Democrats here screenshot to from the new york mag piece. I said we'd come back to early with the show and we're back. This is about democrats getting wider and more corporate democrats. You mean republicans. No democrats quote again from a liberal. Listen to every word of this. At the subgroup level democrats gained somewhere between a half a percent to one percent among non college whites and roughly seven percent among white college graduates. Which is kind of crazy. That's the liberal saying. This she goes on this girl. Our support among african americans declined by something like one to two percent. Yeah yeah yeah. This is a liberal saying and he goes on and hispanic support dropped by eight to nine percent at sounds like a lot to me wasn't a math major. He says listen. The jury still out on asian americans. We're waiting on data from california before we say anything but there's evidence that there was something like a five percent decline in asian american support for democrats likely with a lot of various among subgroups. There were really big declines at vietnamese areas for example anyway. One implication of these shifts is that the education polarization went up and racial polarization went down. Let me translate that last sentence for you. Democrats are getting a lot wider and a lot more elite and slobby snobbery riske's tucker and everywhere we their gop right geraldo. Yeah right by everybody's our everybody's a racist everybody's racist accept the fact that all the republicans racist yet minorities. If we're such racist. We must be doing really a poor job at this. We must be the worst racist ever because as where these these just i mean glowing red. Hot fury of racism in. The gop is attracting more minority voters. Eight to nine percent. Spanish two percent more african americans potentially five percent more asian americans and less white voters. Gosh if the. Gop's full of races. We are doing a piss poor job at it again. This is a leftist writing this proving again. The democrats are getting really white and really corporate working class voters alike. I'm out with those bow-tie-wearing democrats anymore. You may say well dan. You haven't really proved yet that they're losing working class voters. Oh no no we will listen to this. This is a long again this going to take a minute but listen to this too. Here's liberal david shore again again. Proving my point that this illegal immigration article that the democrats are not looking to replace any race or they're looking to replace their loss of working class voters. There's nothing to do with race at all nothing. The gop is increasing their support amongst minorities. Listen to this second quote. There's a narrative on the left that the democrats growing reliance on college educated whites pulling the party to the right. This is the liberal sinus. But i think that's wrong. Highly educated people tend to have more ideologically coherent and extreme views than working class. One we see this issue polling and ideological self identification college educated voters are way less likely to identify as moderate less likely so as democrats have traded non college educated voters in other words folks working class americans for college educated ones right white liberal share of voice in cloud. The democratic party has gone up white. Voters gone up with. I thought i thought we heard the opposite. And since white voters are sorting on ideology more than non white voters. We've ended up in a situation where white liberals are more left wing than black and hispanic democrats on pretty much every issue taxes healthcare policing and even on racial issues or various measures of racial resentment. Oh inject that paragraph hide in your name that he's didn't mean rate in your veins checked it right in their me. Translate that for you working class. Americans don't give a damn about the things wight upper-crust liberal do that about pretty much sum it up pretty much tied together. Make no mistake. That's exactly what that on. What he says these liberals has gotta dance around a little bit. That's exactly what he means that the democrats are falling in love with white upper crust liberals who are fostering all kinds of ridiculous narratives in the country. We need to define the police. Everything's racist. Meanwhile black and hispanic voters are like not really not not not not so much. So let me tie this all together. Alinsky that number four you damn well. Better make these liberal media symbiotic malfeasance organisms. You better make them live up to their own set of rules if they're gonna call you out for telling the truth that the democrats have been hemorrhaging working class. Voters black hispanic white asian working class voters for years now because of their endless love affair which stoking racists flames in the united states. If they're going to call us out for calling attention to it then we're going to call them out for actually calling for replacement on their own words. The new york times and julian castro and the ad l. is going to call us out for highlighting. The democrats love affair with fostering a sick racist environment in the united states than they damn. Well better call for the firing that new york times author or opinions or whatever and julian castro as well they are making a racial issue out of it when there's none to be seen. The democrats are not losing white voters. They're gaining voters. They're losing minorities because of supporting policies that damage minority communities defunding the police fighting against school choice for their kids fighting for higher taxes. What do you think because people are black or hispanic. They just have this natural instinct to support higher taxes. That sounds pretty racist to me because it is. The gop is the party of real tolerance. Real tolerants you wanna see real tolerance go to a trump rally. Go eat a diner and small town. America want to see real tolerance go there. My wife is spanish. She's an immigrant from columbia. We live in a relatively small and medium-sized towns probably fair. I hate these because it sounds like. It's like defending something. You shouldn't need to defend. We have felt nothing but love here. Matter of fact the only time we've had any problems in new york city am problems. I mean minor things best. Democrats are making the ad a. Racist argument here because they are the real racist air pursuing policies anti school choice policies. Defunding the police policies that will harm destroy lives and futures minority communities and in order to hide it. They target people like tucker carlson. Who have tried to call them out for their racist policies. They are anti immigrant. Policies allowing illegal immigration is an anti immigrant policy. Because people like my wife were real immigrants. Who did it the right way in obeyed the law. How is that for them. Why did they legal patriotic america loving immigrants to this country who raised their right hand and pledged allegiance to this country in their citizenship ceremony. One of the most beautiful things you'll ever see. How is that not discriminatory against them. Why did they have to obey the rules. If you're saying everyone else doesn't you're treating two groups of people differently. That's the definition of discrimination eagle. Who did it the right way. Illegal immigrants who said we're not doing anything you're away. We're doing our way they get treated differently. No one had to pay the fees get immigration lawyers. Pledge allegiance to this country just walked right in. You are the ones involved in discrimination. If you support that all right. I had a bunch of other good stuff but i'm out of time folks. I'll get to it tomorrow. I have run the santa strikes again video. I literally have labeled again. A real clear politics piece. It'll be in the newsletter today. If you wanna kinda get ahead of tomorrow's show it's one of the best pieces on the second amendment. I've read in a long time. It short and sweet. But at the bunks. Three of the dumbest arguments you've ever seen about the second amendment bongino dot com slash newsletter and foul cheese. Back course that's never good notice. I didn't say strikes again. Get tired of his nonsense to but thanks again for tuning in a sorry again. Keep bringing up my radio show. Launches may twenty fourth nationally on of stations near. You really excited. We're going to be putting the station finder out soon. Please call your local radio station and asked broadcast. the dan. Bongino show will be twelve noon to three pm eastern every day and please subscribe to my video show rumble dot com slash. Bongino really appreciate it. See tamar just heard dan bongino.

geraldo tucker carlson tucker dan bongino dante united states Dan bongino david shore omaha The new york times brooklyn center mark stein leib Dan forty dan Dan forty hannity wall street journal York post brooklyn center brooklyn cente
Freddie Highmore, 'The Good Doctor'

Popcorn with Peter Travers

00:00 sec | 2 years ago

Freddie Highmore, 'The Good Doctor'

"Yeah. Hi, everybody. I'm Peter Travers this popcorn where we tell. You. What it's popping in the culture. And right now, there is a show right here on ABC called the good doctor, which has been more successful than I think any show in over a decade on this network. Well, it stars my guess, Freddie, Highmore. So welcome. Thank you for the lovely introduction about the show. I didn't even know that it was that figure that you quoted. So yes. Well, not that. I that just comes with somebody handed me that information off the top of your hands. Don't people treat you better. Now, you know, once they know that your show is like a gigantic ratings getter, don't they say, Mr. Highmore is there anything we could get you don't really I think, thankfully, things seem to be pretty much the same as they were before in terms of life. Sure. No, I'm still like eyeing up the thing that it's real. I need it with you. But it it makes me choke little can't have that. So you could do it and just always watch this. And I wonder if it's real of physician. Or playing one on TV gives you thirty doesn't it? You must know something by now. No, I think it actually is probably was to you know, if you're gonna play in and someone says, oh, we need an eye to raise my hand thinking that I'd learned something from the surgeries, and you know, various diagnoses that we've given the is it would be more dangerous than someone who knew nothing simply because we take shortcuts. It's like an eight-hour operation has to go in fifty minutes. And so I think I think I knew what I was doing. But I'd have absolutely no idea. Oh, yeah. You just hear simple procedure. Oh, yes. To get the knife in the wherever and Weakland around jamming in. Jamming in. Not only that. But you know, Dr show and Murphy play is. So he has this other thing going for him and. Does with that whole idea that you're playing somebody with autism? Ring this note of responsibility to one you're doing much more than if you were back on Bates motel playing and Bates, you know, a fictional character. This is also a fictional character. But again, there's this autism. That's in there. What do you do when you take on a part like that? What was your research for it? I mean, David shore, wonderful main, brighter and show Ronna sat down before the pie and also in between the pilot and making the show with the consultant that we still have on board and also just traded back and forth books and pieces of literature. Documentaries that we thought were useful gave us some sort of insight into building this one, very particular character. It's wonderful to see somebody who suffers from this who can't emotionally relate. But who cannot tell lie that's wonderful. Each getting so much trouble for just not telling a lie to somebody. And I also love how the how Sean is changing over time to and not something that David nice spoke about from the very beginning as being essential with this that in the pilot, it feels like way back when it was probably just under two years. Feels like back when I was young. There was naive to him. And he was in this big city environment. Having moved from the countryside for the very first time adjusting to this whole new world. And obviously that innocence that he had then if the situation changes over time and just because Sean it stating the obvious, but just because he has autism. That doesn't mean he's not going to grow and change changes a person. And so I guess one of the things I'm most proud of the first couple of seasons is that we've managed to show how he is progressing and learning, and we get a little bit more, which you kind of into that like a bit more of the fun and his sense of humor coming out the episode with people, and and he Dr Glassmann that Richard Schiff plays some recently when you both get high. Yes. Because you're taking his we'd pills thinking for nausea and pain. And there's just something terrific about watching that. And you could play. With that and play with the characters to do it. I also how the show will stop. When Dr Sean Murphy has this idea, and we see these visuals just what's going through his head. But this particular episode directed by you, yes. I know I'm watching it thinking, oh could have I think tweak revocable page editing. Like, oh, there's a couple of frames here and there and you get four days on the TV show to kind of all has to be done. But I don't know what directing does to people because every director of ever interviewed a watch on send does it different. But these are actors that you've been working with for two seasons. And you've written the first episode of season two. Yes. Well, but now you're pushing them around. What are you? Are. You a dictator goes on. We got what would they say? This is probably yes. Like my sticky plan. No, I genuinely just love, and I got to do both those things on base, my toddler's, well and just contributing to the show, and in that wide away makes it even more fulfilling, I guess, but but the directing was could fun apparently, I direct in my British accent. That's when it sneaks out because I try and say the American as much as possible onset. Ripping that you ration- for your next role. Yes. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. This is purely the direct now speech speaks must be. I mean, you have to be teased about it on set when you go when you're doing an accent. And you go back to your regular one. I think it was bemusing. Hopefully, it was it was very endearing instead of adding to the dictator quality that suggesting sometimes you can get people on a set. Even when you're joining the show just aren't going with the flow, and then you have to deal with that just this much as you have to deal with everybody getting along and doing something like this. But there is and I can say this because it's happened from the beginning of season two on where he is told by a lot of these new administrators and playing the new cheaper surgery that Dr Sean Murphy, can't communicate autism. He can't they want him to be. In some other aspect of something. And he says, I'm a surgical resident this is who I am what my identity is. That's a very strong fem- the show that he wants to be this. Yes. Yeah. That's what he said his life. Up in order to in order to do. It's been his goal since you know, for many years, potentially since what? And his brother died. I guess was that was that inspirational movement for him when he thought this is what I want to do. I want to I want to help people. I wanted to say people, and you have to feel it. You haven't been viewed that emotion and yet you're playing somebody. You can't express that emotion. I think. Yeah. I mean, that's that's obviously one of the. I guess not the not the you are in any way suggesting this. But I think one of the misconceptions sometimes about people who have that somehow devoid of emotion or emotion this so the because they can't always express their emotions that does nothing going on inside. And of course, that's not true. And so what's wonderful about I guess being able to tell the story on television with a camera that can see everything that's going on inside. Is that as long as you'll playing it, truthfully? And you know, that what is what feels genuine and right? There is not a necessity to be big to be, you know, make make it. I heard somewhere you went from Bates motel to this half an hour. What's the? It was three three days between an and it was very odd three days. Just because I never you'll like coming to the end of five seasons on something and something that had been such an amazing fulfilling experience and the first time I've done television show, and it ended up being everything I would could have hoped it would be more in terms of collaborators and actors in the material and the character. And so I guess having had that experience. First of all it wasn't that within three days. I was looking to have that live forget, nor would I think it would have been possible to people. Probation. Yes. Finished with these shows that you're doing aren't basically four episodes and a little mini mini thing there. That's also you realize the commitment behind taking on something of that shoot. And of course, you're doing a pilot, and so the realistic chances are it won't get made. And it wouldn't happen. But when committing to you have to imagine that we may be here. Two years latest. They didn't want it the first time, right? It was another network. That's right before David Shaw came on this. What what are you thinking? You know, I loved him being the executive board room after show because like this one who. Said no to Daniel the fuss time bring that person into this. But the chain. I mean, it's part of your acting tool kit that you can go from playing one kind of part to another one that is completely different. But there had to be some level of intimidation in taking on Norman Bates taking on this Hitchcock classic Anthony Perkins head created. Did you have that? Or did you say, I don't care. I'm ready. I'm. I did the guy that was in quite that. The. I don't know. It's I guess I was of course aware that the people were going to compare what we would doing to the brilliant original come before. And especially, you know, my portrayed of Norman Bates with Anthony Perkins. Is brilliant version that kick things off thought I think the Kapala because it was a it was contemporary, and partly just because of the way it was structured as this prequel and acting Pacific like they act has ruled amazing the writing was brilliant. You just kind of felt that it was its own separate thing from the very start. We have to talk about how great for your farm. You is just amazing. That is one of the greatest most perverse mother son relationship I've ever witnessed. I'm gonna say she's one of my best friends, right? She would write off to the mother. So like. She. No, she she's just she's just fantastic. And and I learned so much length so much from working with the ability that she has to kind of to be I guess, it's like a it's a boldness. It's a confidence to do things that other people might feel or couldn't possibly attempt to arrest because it would feel too big or over the tall. But she manages to ground this character Norma who is so vibrant and full of energy and crazy and kooky in her own way. But ground with this. It's it's a it was a marvellous performance. I feel like I'm what getting credit? She's all of those two on brilliant. Yeah. Did you like bringing out the psycho in yourself? I've I've I would always say it was cathartic. So yes, I do. I mean with a bit of hindsight is it might not have been the healthiest thing to light. Continually. Pull one talks out, your friend. Freddie. Let it all out like any sort of. But then I realized I guess looking back like acting shouldn't necessarily be used as a form of therapy. I think if you note that I had these issues, but well, maybe I did. And maybe the live loud. Object. I had a desire to kill loads of people just go to the shows. And now, you're and you're really. Great thing. I don't know what you're going to do next. But you don't either. No. And how long we lucky to get a this is just. Yeah. Gonna and so that was I mean that was very nice to get an early pick up into no, no just the actors, but the whole crew and keep that group in Vancouver. So I've been in Vancouver enough is seven years, and we go to few people who have sort of segue from one to the other. So that that family base Mattel still alive on the set of the doctor in some fashion. Yeah. But you chose this profession you as a child. Amir child said I wanna do this. I wanna be an actor. What happened? What was that moment that it? Did it don't go wrong. I know you come from a family your dad's an actor. Right. I mean, I guess the thanks probably agree with you. But I've never felt like I came from acting family tool like my dad has acted since I've been born and born the American actors still comes in. And so yeah, it didn't. It didn't feel in any way. That was it was this predestined thing that I was going to become an actor. And if anything I think leaving leaving behind and taking some time off to go to university, and then be able to make an active decision to do as an adult was was kind of key. Because I didn't really have any idea. What I wanted to do as an adult, even though I was obviously enjoying and feeding fulfilled by what I was doing as a kid that just seemed to be other opportunities out that to just can't figure out what it does the kid to do something like finding Neverland, which you're brilliant them. But how old were you? There was like nine nine. How do you know what you're doing is even good? I don't know. No. You certainly probably. Appreciative of the opportunity, but not quite aware of the. Why devotion that you'll having to with such Thailand people, and then you do with Tim Burton and Johnny deaf. Yes truck injury. So what was the Johnny Depp experience? Like he was he was wonderful to to. Why way then I haven't seen him in a few years, but but incredibly talented and was always very kind to me into me under his his wing on. Both a good turn to you and say kid, you have no future and show. Like quit now. Over doing. Well, I know I heard this that you don't do social media at all high deftly brought that up because we always have a couple of questions at the end from people. I say on social media otherwise awesome because I'm never on. They're not. So this is their only opportunity in life. You know? So can we see some of those look at this? I have a pet. Do you have a little bird, and it's also notes also? I don't have a pet a used to have some fish when I was when I was younger, but this is just the splish splash. Even even Norman Bates. No tax. I didn't. Yeah. Now there was none of that. Okay. Disappointment. Okay. For the record. I really loved your brilliant performance in the good doctor. But what would you most likely be doing if you weren't acting? I did my year abroad you had to spend a year away in a Spanish speaking country. So I was in Madrid and Spain in Washington law firm for nine months, so that could have been the alternative future. Yeah. Wow. I haven't played a lawyer yet. No, no. I haven't. I haven't used any of that. Well, you this is the first time you've been on the show. So yeah, you not know that we end in song and in so yeah. Just a little bit of song for my August, rush for God's sake. And you know, I read you did with VERA I did that rateable, and it's kind of her last seen alive the Hawaii. Yes. Pearly shoddy shows how about you. Shows from from the ocean. No. To when I see them hall. I think I wouldn't thrown good. My heart tells me. Do on all the little. Really? I feel like I've been sung by Norman Bates. She's my like, hopefully. My. Great. Thank you. Hey, I'm Dan Harris from ABC news, and I have a podcast, and you've you listen to it. It's called ten percent, happier. It's all about how to stay sane in our increasingly insane world we talked to everybody from the Dalai Lama fines. Human gene to rupaul. You have to explore this life. It's fun and interesting may even change your life. You can listen to it for free on apple podcasts or on your favorite podcast app.

Norman Bates Dr Sean Murphy autism Freddie Peter Travers Highmore Mr. Highmore ABC Bates motel David shore Vancouver Anthony Perkins Johnny Depp Mattel nausea ABC news director surgical resident Dr Glassmann
Episode 23 - David Shor, Former Data Analyst for Obama For America/Obama's 2012 re-election campaign

Clusterf*cked

46:54 min | 9 months ago

Episode 23 - David Shor, Former Data Analyst for Obama For America/Obama's 2012 re-election campaign

"And this is cluster fucked. Here's your host roger. King time for another scintillating episode of the cluster. Fuck podcast i m. you're humble host. Roger king with today's guests have gone a lot of things. I want to cover all try. And we've some kind of coherent narrative with my questions but every time i read an interview with this guy or see something he says on twitter always find it interesting. I i love guests who can sometimes cut against conventional wisdom about politics and what voters believe and and that sort of thing that and this is the guy who fits into that category for sure. At i believe twenty years of age. He was hired by the obama campaign is one of their key. Data analysts said obama for america guiding decisions they made for obama's re election campaign in two thousand twelve. He has gone on to do lots of data and pulling work and democratic politics. David shore welcome to the cluster. Fuck podcast pleasure to be here on the invited. I thought i've got a few general topics i want to talk about. I thought we dive in since we just finished an election. We'd start with polling And i wanna be sensitive in discussions about public polling because it is a science and one which you're involved in lots of other Qualified smart people and companies in the in the in the public pulling arena. And i think obviously there are some problems in the pulling industry But maybe sometimes they get exaggerated. I wanna get your take. I mean the conventional narrative for example with the two thousand sixteen election was that the polling was just way off I don't think actually was the case. It was more the analysis of the polling that that was off. And i think there's already a conventional wisdom developing about twenty twenty election. Our you know just finished counting the votes and the data's still coming in and i'm sure you're kind of looking at it all but Well at the presidential level the obviously got the winning candidate correct. The margins weren't what was expected. So i wanna get your your overview take on the accuracy of the polling. This time i've heard you say essentially there's an issue with who's answering the phone and who's not so so give us your overview and so far. What you've you've learned about pulling in the twenty twenty election. I think you can talk about the twenty twenty pulling air. I think the summary take. I give is that. This was a pretty bad year for pulling this was worse than two thousand sixteen in a lot of ways even if it contained a lot of the same errors and i think you can really decompose this pulling air into two distinct stories. That both happened at once. You know the first is that in two thousand sixteen. This poll this phenomena polling air starting to appear where the national polling in two thousand sixteen was approximately right. It was hillary clinton plus three and the result was clinton plus two. She didn't win but that was about the reason why everybody was surprised. I mean you know to be cleared. You nate silver said that Trump had at thirty percent chance of winning and then he won. But i think that the reason everyone was still surprised was because there was the structural pattern. Where even if the national polls were right polls really overestimated democratic support in these midwestern. You know non college educated white states that had disproportionate influence in the electoral college. And that's the reason why you know. Fifty fifty one point one percent translated into a big a big loss. I think the thing that people didn't. And i think when you look at this polling air i think it is unusual if you look historically It was one of the worst years even though it wasn't the worst year before i talk about anything else i think something. That's under appreciated in this debate. Is that polling has always been kind of inaccurate and i think if the the question of our polls worse than they were twenty years ago or thirty years ago. The answer is probably no if you're if you're honest about it. The real structural problem is elections are a lot closer than they used to be. If you take a list of the top you know eight. Closest elections in history. Like five of them have happened since one thousand nine hundred ninety. So that's so now if polls you know in one thousand nine hundred eighty eight four if the polls were off by three or four percent or had some structural regional biases. No one would have known or karen right because reagan winds forty nine states and eighty four. Who cares right. Yeah right and so things are a lot closer now like if you look at the last couple of elections twenty twelve obama got fifty two percent of the two party vote. Hillary clinton got fifty one point. One it looks like biden is going to get you know maybe fifty two point three or something like that. These are all this is all happening. Very narrow range and all these elections were fairly close. And so we're asking a lot of polling to be able to get this right but that said i. I do think it is reasonable for people to want to know what's going to happen. So the challenge is a lot so just a rambled a little bit there but to go back to. You know what happened in two thousand sixteen this polling error of kind of overestimating support in the midwest and underestimating support in coastal areas. This happened again in two thousand eighteen to an extent to which people didn't realize it didn't affect the winners. But if you look at states senate races in places like west. Virginia or ohio or a michigan These were all substantially closer than people thought. And if you actually you know just make scatter plot you would see that the polling. You're in two thousand sixteen in the pollinger in two thousand eighteen. We're actually very closely correlated and just to put numbers of that on that in west. Virginia i think the public fivethirtyeight polling average was something like plus eleven for joe manchin and the final result ended up being like plus one or plus two so these are actually like pretty big effects and people don't realize west virginia because the state had the most non college educated whites actually had the largest polling air in in two thousand sixteen The public polls said something like forty clinton with thirty eight thirty nine percent of the vote and indicating twenty eight percent of the vote so now flashing forward to twenty twenty. The exact same error happened again at the same thing that happened in two thousand sixteen. The same thing that happened in two thousand eighteen once again happened where we overestimated the boat substantially in places like wisconsin in only overestimating the boat. A little bit in places like georgia and so if that was just the story it'd be one thing but the interesting thing on top of that is that twenty twenty featured something that didn't exist in the either two cycles. Before which is the national polling was very wrong. The national polling was off by maybe one point in two thousand sixteen in two thousand sixteen but in twenty twenty. It was really off by like six. Six points is substantially larger thanks. The polling was like worse. It really just comes down again to this. What we call non-response by us this problem that the people who are answering the phones aren't the same as the people who aren't so after the election you know i. I went back and looked at our surveys. Which we we ask basically a personal. We asked people's name we asked for the you know where they live. And so we can actually matched back to the voter file. And basically what we looked at was by month. What percentage of people survey respondents had voted in the democratic primary. And you know we saw. Was that normally about thirteen percent of respondents. You know going back for about a year about thirteen percent of owners funds donut but then starting. In late february march it spice to like sixteen or seven seventeen percent and Basically stated that elevated level for the remainder of the twenty twenty cycle and. So i'm pretty sure that basically the issue was that a lot of a lot of democrats participated in lockdown and republicans didn't in these democrats who were stuck at home Started answering surveys. More in ways that traditional models couldn't account for and the reason people didn't pick this up is if you look at the polling there. Was you know a surge polling around the of march and the beginning of april but people really attributed that to all right. Well biden one. He's kind of locking. He's solidifying his base. He's getting positive. Press corona virus has happening. And so it's something that was very hard for people to pick up but like looking back. I think there's a pretty clear story that that's that's the reason why the national polls were wrong right and obviously democrats more likely to have jobs. where they can work at home and would be at home anyway And therefore there to answer these surveys I wanted to you mentioned Let's segue into issues for a second. You know in terms of what ideas are popular. Where i'm going with this because you've addressed these issues now with the polling and who was responding and who's not and you know the american public isn't necessarily known for being a bunch of policy wonks Here your average voter survey you know has some views on issues or whatever but doesn't know all the minutiae of of policies issues So you take something like medicare for all you've got some polls like if that's the top line question. Are you in favour of medicare for all you get progressives who will point to these polls and say look the majority of americans want single payer healthcare and it can appear that way depending on if you're looking at a poll or not but then other pollsters who go a little deeper and sort of try to understand what people think medicare for all means find out that well actually most americans don't want to give up their own private health insurance which is what medicare for all would mean and so maybe it's not as popular as progressive. Think it is. I i bring all this up to to to ask you the question. If we're having issues with polling and who's responding and who's not and we're having you know the public generally not necessarily being aware of all the specifics of certain policies Or issues and we're having this whole era of misinformation and bad actors with fake was fake news and all of that How can we be sure. What issues Or policies our legitimately popular is a great question. I think there's a couple of pieces here. One of the things that pollsters will like to say you know after they get an election wrong. Let's say well polls aren't just about getting the election right. We also have to do all of this issue polling. And i think nate silver made this point very recently. That like look at least with the election polling can tell whether or not you're wrong and i think if you're election polls are on your issue polls are also and i think there's a really clear bias in almost all public polls you see on issues. Which is that people who answer surveys phone. Surveys are much much more engaged than the overall population because the mere act of answer only one percent of people pick up the phone and so the mere act of picking up the phone and talking for twenty minutes to someone about policy. It means. you're very very into politics. You know to put numbers on that. I think something like ninety three percent of respondents when you go and match them to a voter file. End up voting. There are just much much more likely to vote and much more knowledgeable about politics in a bunch of different ways and this really manifest itself. When when i at my time it citizens we did some policy polling for some orbs. We did a lot of stuff to try to account for this. Basically we would wait on boat history so if the people who didn't vote in the last couple of elections you try to wake them up and our didn't like it Because what we got was that nobody knew what any a lot of these policies were like. We were pulling something on common core for example and there were public polls that claim that you know. Eighty percent of the public had opinion on common. Core knows like i am a democratic political operative and i personally don't know common core really not right fresh and so when we did it the correct way maybe like twenty five thirty percent of people knew it. Common core was at least at that point and so i think that makes a really big difference. I think that there are other biases. These national polls Up until recently they didn't wait by education. And i think they really attract a kind of higher socioeconomic group even if you do try to adjust for education and so it makes a lot of things that previously seemed unpopular. You know one example is free. College I think kind of contrary to a lot of other things. I think free college can look really unpopular in a lot of phone surveys. But when you know we but if you look at web surveys particularly web surveys. I think do a good job of kind of attracting more working class base. You see that it is something is is more popular or at least even and so these are very real problems. Or if you look at lockdown polling all of this polling all the public polling shows that lockdown is incredibly popular but as we saw the people who are participating in these polls or people who are literally staying in saying home so these these are really hard really hard problems. But i think on top of these methodological problems. I think that there's a real problem. That polling is israeli propaganda whether it's like explicit propaganda that a lot of this policy polling happens because issue groups commission the polls. And then there's i'm not saying that they're trying to do things on purpose but i- amicable sir. I've done projects for clients one hundred percent. That pressure is there to present to in the process to put things in more reasonable light and in an implicit process that almost everyone who writes the survey questions are liberal democrats. I've heard you say you know depending on how you frame the question. Which was sort of what i was hinting at. You can get us you know you can get a certain result. Not the navy's trying to mislead it just depends on how you how you phrase it no and it really does and there are some great examples of this where you can look at a bunch of polls on contracts and it will tell you that eighty percent of people support background checks but then background checks actually gets on the ballot in places like nevada or main and then they either loses or wins very narrowly. Maybe it gets fifty one percent and so there's clearly problem here and so you know i think one in terms of my one of my personal projects Something i'm really proud of is just. I've done some work with data for progress where we tried to make. We try to independently do policy polling and do it in a way that was more neutral you know presented in a partisan frame say something like democrats in congress are proposing this bill and give pro and con arguments. Democrats say this republicans say this you agree more with the democrats or republicans and you know when we do this and the new progressive agenda project people can go. We've done a lot of cool things there when you do that. I think what's really interesting. Is that a lot of things. That tradition traditionally look very popular become unpopular and a lot of things that people think. Are you know kind of weird or outside of the overton window. Stuff like making guam estate or things like worker co-determination actually end up looking more popular. And so i think it's a really important problem of our times to be really honest about what's popular and what's what's not and methodical and try to come come together and put together a popular agenda. 'cause politics is about ultimately coming up with talking about issues that people care about having the right opinions on them and what i'd say is you know my nylon pulling aside. I think it's just really important to be self critical if we really lived in this world where eighty percent of people agreed with us on everything. Then we would win clearly clearly. It's not the where we live in. And then the other thing i would say is a lot. I think we really don't realize how popular a lot of republican policies are even now the border wall is probably slipped and prior to trump. It was definitely above water One thing i want example of poll wording really mattering is if you ask. Do you think taxes on the rich should be increased sixty seventy percent of people say yes and it's not just true here basically in every country in the world but if you ask do you think we should cap income taxes for all at thirty five percent that also roughly sixty sixty sixty percent support so we need to be honest with ourselves and at least try to look at things in different ways because How you how you phrase these things can make a big difference in. It would be a really big mistake for us to just glomma. Delude ourselves into thinking everything we wanna do is popular. Well the focus of this podcast You know is all about how democrats can win in more places So that's that's what i focus on. And i i've heard you address this issue because of course you're on my side of the aisle and and that's ultimately the goal in your mind as well So i've got sort of three categories. I want to address under that umbrella and i. i think i'll start going back to you mentioned briefly about people who don't vote so i just wanted to talk a moment about voter because of course that is one strategy that some people would like to pursue is animated animating more of the electric getting more people off the couch so i find that People on our side of the aisle particularly On the progressive end of things are are under this impression that the the nonvoting pool is mainly follow these people who hate both parties and they're they're just waiting to be animated by surprise surprise Essentially the the left wing policy agenda And then i mean i would think that you know. The fact that bernie sanders was not the democratic nominee would pretty much have shot that narrative down Because you know if you if there really was this pool of voters who are just dying for the socialist utopia you'd think he probably would have won the nomination So anything that i've seen on non voters They run the gamut just like voters do. So you've got conservatives you've got liberals you've certainly got a lot of people who are who don't care or not that interested in politics and A lot of people who are apathetic not necessarily because they're falling the issues closely and no-one speaking to them but because they really don't care that much about the issues now. I saw you make a comment on twitter that i found fascinating. You said Seventy three percent of eighteen to thirty four year olds who didn't vote in two thousand sixteen actually identify as moderate or conservative. So that that obviously goes against even more what i'm saying. This sort of the left wing narrative So tell us about non voters and what you learned about them and who are they. Yeah as you said. Non voters don't care very much about politics But the important thing is it's not just that they also that non voters aren't particularly strong ideologies. If they did they would be interested in politics and then they would they would vote right and so this you know that statistic just to be clear. It wasn't just. It wasn't just voters it's non voters who would have voted for clinton you know that's the that's the thing that i think is is crazy is Even democratic leaning non voters generally speaking are not particularly ideological and so there's been in the progressive space literally thousands of experiments on how to get people to vote and one of the really clear findings is that ideological messaging is generally demotivate is either has no effect or as demo de motivating to partisans sorry to non voters on your side and there's also some academic evidence. There's this person andy hall. He basically looked at this natural experiment. Which is what happens. When an incumbent loses a primary challenge to someone who's more ideologically extreme and he looked basically all primary races in the last thirty years and tried to classify who is who is a challenger who who was the liberal challenger. who wasn't needed this on both sides. And basically what he found was that when when he compared People where the races were the incumbent dot like forty nine percent to racist where the income got like fifty one percent to try to get a causal sense of what's the impact of of losing a primary and running a more extreme candidate. And you know. Generally he found that when you nominate the more extreme candidate you do substantially worse. I don't remember the exact effects but they were very large But what was interesting was the mechanism he found. It wasn't. There's this idea among activists that if you run to the left you'll inspire this group of voters who normally don't vote to vote for you and what he found was the opposite dat. It inspired non voters on the other side to come out and vote and how robust that finding is. But i do think there's you know experimentally. There's a lot of evidence that going to people who don't care very much about politics and trying to talk to them about highly. Ideological issues doesn't work very much. The stuff that we've found works the best is really mundane reminders. to vote You know telling people like the best. Get out the vote ads or ads. That really mentioned when election day is And and you know the other point there is just that realistically getting the vote. Out in presidential elections is very hard. If you're talking about a presidential primary. you're talking about a local election. You can really go and tell someone. Hey there's an election today. Vote and then they'll do it but once you get to a presidential election. It's very very hard. There have been lots of experiments. I think there have been over. One hundred experiments within the progressive community on like feel on canvassing a bunch of other interventions. And you know they have the statistically positive but very very small effects and whenever we do see increases in turn out overall like we saw in two thousand sixteen it happens roughly evenly on both sides and the other point. Make your is. I think that democrats had this idea and used to be true. That if turnout is higher you automatically win. But there's been these large coalition ships in the in the past six years or so where now that we're doing so much worse among non college educated whites it's no longer straightforwardly. True in every state that has turned out goes up We'll do better in. That really. highlights a lot of these issues with voter mobilization. And i do think if you do wanna try to mobilize voters with issues. You'd have to really be honest with yourself about who are the people who don't vote in. What are they care about in. The answer is not going to be single hair at pyramid healthcare. I think it might be marijuana legalization. I've personally been an advocate. Because i do think that is a rare example of something that non voters might have strong opinions about. But i i think in general. I'm very skeptical about mobilization channel. Basically it both from two thousand sixteen to twenty eighteen or twenty sixteen to twenty twenty people changing their minds really except most of the change from election to election know roughly speaking it averages about eighty versus twenty in. That's really where the bulk of the action is. you know. Persuasion is still real. Still tons of ticket splitting and if you want to win elections. You have taken seriously okay. So that's interesting ticket splitting. I was under the impression you thought that was sort of going away But i thought you just said here that you think there is still tons of ticket splitting. It's definitely way less than it used to be. If you go back to two thousand six one of my favorite statistics is in two thousand six. If you look among democratic incumbents there was basically no correlation at all between senate vote in presidential vote ben nelson in nebraska. Did better than bob menendez in new jersey. There usa one of the most liberal senators in america. You know used to be from. Idaho used to go back further than two thousand six but it used to be true so just to put numbers on this in the senate to in two thousand twelve. The correlation between senate vote in presidential vote with something like point seven. Three twenty twenty eight point nine point nine nine five four so there's a lot less ticket splitting than there used to be and that that has a lot of really downstream negative effect. Structurally for democrats winning and some of these areas and we can talk about that later. But it's still true that there is a lot of ticket splitting you if you look if you look in the atlanta suburbs for example there are lots of parts of the country where biden two points better than us off and so it just shows people and you know just to put some other examples. There is a republican governor in vermont and massachusetts and there's a democratic governor in kansas. So people people are changing their mind. Persuasion is still possible and it still the case that persuasion is most of the story. Yeah and i mean. This was a unique election in that Trump was so polarizing to us at least a percentage of people in his own party The never trump republicans as we know them and biden was the perfect candidate. I think to attract Some of those voters because he was relatively moderate and not proposing any big revolution. Or anything And yeah i mean. I obviously you can find examples like you said of republican governors leading democratic states. Larry hogan is another one in maryland You mentioned joe mansion earlier. Obviously he is able to win west virginia. Despite the state voting for trump by forty points Susan collins of course in the other end of the spectrum survives continuously and in new england which is pretty much all blue otherwise and and so you know we can go on which gives me a little bit of optimism About the senate situation. So i wanna turn to that for a second is that was sort of the second thing under the umbrella You know Not so much. Wanna talk about coming up in georgia. Of course we have the the senate hanging in the balance with two runoff elections in the first week of january and if the democrats managed to flip both seats of course we get a fifty fifty senate and then carmela harris breaks the tie i think most people know that And if the republicans retain one or both of them they continue to have a narrow lead in the senate but i've seen Comments from u That appear to be sort of pessimistic about the democratic chances in the senate going forward and that brings me again to the theme of this podcast. i call a cluster fuck because the democratic clustering has become a huge problem. was wasting so many votes with everyone living in california new york and illinois and not spread out far enough across the country to win more elections. So that was sort of the impetus for starting this was like. Hey how can we win. And some of these places now. One radical thing. I advocate is the democrats. Get moving. And i mean that literally that they that they moved to some of these smaller red states particularly in middle america. We've got south dakota north dakota kansas nebraska wyoming idaho. There were giving out of alaska for what it's worth if anyone if you people talk about this and i'm sorry to interrupt the single best state if you're if you decide i really. I really wanna move someplace to help. Democrats probably alaska. Maybe new hampshire maine. But if you want to go. Do be more out there alaska. Sorry to interrupt no. That's fine. I i was on twitter ramble. Myself you're just summing up the premise of the podcast. But you know we are Giving these states away to republicans essentially simply. Because we're not there literally but i also talk about the clustering in the in the figurative sense that we're not spending enough time talking to people who don't agree with us and and spending too much time talking to people who do which gets into your persuasion Topic so you seem optimistic about the idea. That democrats have some room to persuade Maybe particularly in these states Am i am. I reading you right on on that. Definitely think it's possible so i think this it's important just to talk a little bit about trends trends here. I like to talk a lot about education polarization which is really the root cause for a lot of what you're talking about where democrats have done better among noncolored been doing better and better among college educated whites and worse among non college educated whites and it's also true that rural places have our lot lower education levels and urban places. That doesn't explain all of the story but even then density really capture is a lot of this laden socioeconomic class where if you have a college degree and you live in new york needs something different than if you have a college degree. And you live in rural wisconsin. So this broader socioeconomic or education polarization it exists in. It's very. It's very bad for democrats for the simple reason that rural states are incredibly overrepresented in the senate and these midwestern states are incredibly overrepresented in the electoral college and so if we had an electoral system like austria. This would all be fine. But we have an electoral system that specifically was designed to not allow this particular coalition of urban college educating people to have legislative power and we were able to narrowly win the presidency. Even though the electoral college is pretty starkly biased against us and maybe over like a ten year time. The electoral college was actually worse than it was in two thousand sixteen but maybe one day that goes away maybe someday we flipped texas. The senate isn't going away. The education buys the senate only gonna get you know larger and larger because actually the gaps in education between new. York and south dakota are just getting larger. Vote forecasts continue to get larger. So i want to step back and just talk a little bit about the historical forces that we're going up against if you look back at the last to seventy years. There's been this in the long run. Relatively constant trend both here in the uk and france arguably in a bunch of other countries in western europe to where there's been this pattern where the working class has gone from being steadfastly left wing group to gradually training to the right and this has happened in spurts and stops. But if you look at it over like an eighty year period you can really you can really see see this this trend and even if you go below that i really liked to look at the truman. Presidential library has a lot of old A britain accounts and interviews with local political actor is and even then. You could see the college educated cosmopolitan intellectuals getting invites with the union leaders and so this has been going on for a really long time and this has been gradually getting worse and news. It is hard to swim upstream and go up against history and i can talk a little bit about. Structurally why i think this is happening. But i i just want to note that if you look at the graph and you know i can. I can share it with you after you if you if folks haven't seen it. It's barack obama contrary to popular belief presided over one of the only periods of education deep polarization in the country which is to say that obama did better in relative terms among culturally conservative midwestern whites than kerry did and in two thousand twelve in relative terms. He actually did even better. And some of that. I think was probably the recession. But i think a lot of it is that you know. Barack obama very consciously made a decision to do everything he could to try to talk in a way that wouldn't You know make republicans angry. That wouldn't set off these cultural trip. Wires and i think the more important thing is that he did everything he could to keep. Things focused on economic issues. Because he knew that if there was a referendum on whether or not the country should have universal healthcare. He would win because a lot of these working class. White people do agree with us on a lot of these bread and butter economic issues. And you know just to go back. I think if you look at why this is happening. I like to just talk about this. Historical force like the reason why we're seeing this education. Polarization is because the country is just so much more educated than it used to be. I think people don't really realize the scale if you go back to say nine hundred forty five something. Like four percent of the electorate had a college degree in something like eighty percent of people had hadn't graduated from high school flash board now and those numbers or something like thirty five percent. Thirty six percent have a college degree and less than nine percent of people haven't graduated from high school. And i think that we have this really big cultural divide between educated people people who haven't finished college in this manifesto a lot of ways. It's the social trust. Talked about before shows up in racial resentment shows up in a lot of questions about class in about values. And i think it's really hard to imagine that kind of divide opening up that you have this new group that has these like totally alien relative to the rest of the population and not causing some kind of political realignment. I think that was like inevitable in some respects but those The job of a political party is to work within the confines of these broader forces as they exist and you know our job is to do everything we can to work against this. I think that's very natural for the democratic party. As educated people come in for us to try to reflect the branding of these like kinda and values of these highly educated people. Like you know you and me but electorally because of the structure of our electoral system. You know i. The median voter doesn't agree with us on these things. But the median voter in montana definitely doesn't agree with us on these things right so well simply are there What in your view can democrats be doing to persuade. More voters in red and swing states. Like are there specific issues or framing or messaging. Or you know. All of the above they should focus on based on your data and the things. You've learned about voters. I think that the the big meta insight is that we really have to do everything we can to focus on popular things that people care about and for the most part though not exclusively that means talking about economic issues at means but it also just means talking about popular things in general. I think you know police. Report is incredibly popular. It doesn't mean that we have to become you know class first leftist or anything like that. But i think we should you know adopt is these broadly popular policies Stuff like medicaid expansion medicare buy in making it easy debt. Free college The tool is there. And i think a lot of these policies are there but the problem is that we have to switch our rhetorical emphasis to match these policies. I think in fairness to joe biden. I think he did his best for the most part to do that. But the problem we have is that because there's so much less ticket splitting and so much more polarization. People are no longer forming opinions necessarily about afc democrats in connor. Lamb they are. I think they've correctly figured out that there is this large idealized. There are two large ideological blobs That kind of control the control things and if they see all their liberal friends of ox article about defunding the police. They're gonna go. Wow democrats are crazy. I'm not gonna vote for any democrat. And i think that that's what we're seeing and it means that we need to have a lot more message. Discipline from people who traditionally don't think of themselves as party actors if you're a liberal if you're a liberal leaning editor box or if you're a activist you have to really ask yourself now is what i'm getting something that's going to help you know my preferred political party win when it used to be that activists say something like look. It's joe biden. Jobs talk about healthcare and it's my job to push my agenda and i'm sympathetic to that. I think you know activism is really important. But i think we live in a world where the space of popular things that the median voter supports. But that aren't policy is so extensive and the policy impacts of winning in. These races are so large. That if we can get you know everyone in all of the different factions of the progressive space to focus on popular things it would have a really big impact and allow us to actually win in these areas and pass laws and transform the country. The other thing i'd say is that you know i talk a lot about issues because issues are easy to measure. But i think there's another side of things. It's something that academics the call symbolic representation. And you know that's things like you know you're how much people associate the democratic party with families or their faith. And i think that in the same way that kind of highly educated cosmopolitan group of people who frankly staff the democratic party and make up. Most of the liberal media have weird unpopular views on issues. They also have weird unpopular views on culture. I think if you're a democratic primary candidate and you need to raise money or get media buzz going out there and talking about your face going out there and like trying to get people to talk about. Families isn't how you get attention. You know if you look at elizabeth warren who should be clear giant fan of if you look at her original body of work it was all about family formation in the two income trap and bankruptcy and yet when she ran for president you know she had to build out a staff of incredibly liberal people and chase support from incredibly liberal activists and she ended up centering her campaign on things like student. Debt forgiveness That is something that feels a lot less to. You know some random fifty year old in montana right. You've spoken quite quite a bit about. And you sort of hinted at it here that everything's becoming nationalized So that the brand of the party Just carries the day even down to you know local state racism and all that sort of thing And you've pinpointed that being partially because of the decline in local media local reporting So everyone's gonna kind of consuming national news now and you know and and getting their that whole democrats versus republicans at the national level is what they're getting in their inboxes and their When they're on the web and also you mentioned something about even the rise of broadband and and three g mobile service. Making people more politically polarized. Because i assume again people are just having access to national information and places from all over and not concentrating on their local newspaper which may not even exist anymore or their local station or whatever so that becomes a challenge as well Like you're saying where everybody's kinda gotta gotta gotta be on message and push back against things like Defend the police. Which i think is a slogan that most agree You know set set the set a certain tone for democrats that they didn't want you know like you're saying hey talk about police reform but do it in a way that voters are likely to support So that's that's a big factor to read. That's sort of nationalization of everything. Yeah i think a lot of people really want this story of okay. We're going to find the next jon tester. We're gonna find the next heidi heitkamp and the problem. We have i think. North dakota itself really is a great example of this. Brock obama got something like forty five percent of the vote. In north dakota i think in two thousand twelve. He got forty eight in two thousand eight. That could be a little wrong in the numbers. Yeah if you start at forty five. Someone like heidi heitkamp. Excellent politician beloved by most constituents can run six points ahead and win. And that's like a doable thing in our ability to win the senate really depends on us. Winning these races. In places like north dakota montana or south dakota or main and we when you start forty five you can do that. Hillary clinton got thirty percent of the vote. or something. Like that in north dakota if you start at thirty there's only so much you can do in two thousand. Eighteen heitkamp outperform us a great democratic year. Heidi heitkamp clinton by like twelve points. Thirteen points but it wasn't enough. And so if you wanna fix the problems of red state democrats you have to start nationally. You have to fix the brand. You know it's not a law of nature that we have to be getting thirty percent of the vote in these states as recent you know i think. Twenty twelve wasn't a long time ago. I'm not saying that we have to return to these halycon days of the seventies eighties. We just have to be make things be like they were in two thousand twelve and i think that's getting close to that as we can't. I think that's very doable. Thing if we return to the kind of messaging In the kind of tone that we had in twenty twelve yet get the national messaging right so it allows those candidates like heidi heitkamp to to run as well as they can in their local states. And everything the that. Yeah that makes sense to me for sure Well i've taken up a lot of your time I appreciate That you've spent this much time me Last thing i just wanted to ask you about sort of demographic trends which demographic trends are are good for democrats In your view That we should be optimistic about. Yeah i think there are some causes for optimism. I think you know the age gap between young and old voters is much larger. People have been talking about the age gap for you know since two thousand four though i will point out two thousand sixteen years ago and we're still losing elections But it is much larger in absolute terms than it was in two thousand four and this has happened not just because the new generation has gotten a new generation as new generations have been more liberal. I think it's also an interesting thing that it's happened within cohort. I mean by that is if you take people someone who is twenty years old in two thousand twelve and you take someone who is sixty five years old in two thousand twelve since then. The sixty five year olds have become like ten points more. Republican in the eighteen year olds become like ten points more democratic. So there's just been age polarization in a lot of that. There are a lot of reasons for that. You know all the things. I talked about before whether it's a racial resentment whether it's education there are really big cultural divides and demographic divides between younger people and older people. So there's a question of how long how long this will last. Obviously the baby boomers were incredibly. Left-wing group mcgovern almost one them despite losing by very large margins and they became more conservative as they got older though i think they really remained more democratic than the country up until probably two thousand sixteen or twenty twenty But i think the long run structural trends that are good for the left are that the country is getting more educated overtime. Actually very quickly. I think some by a by a rate of maybe something like half a per year. I don't have the exact statistic but it's actually quite fast. The country is getting less white which does help And i think the other piece. That's very important is that the country is getting more secular a very large fraction of the age gap partisanship between young people and old people can be accounted for by. Just those three things and those three things probably aren't going to go away. I think that those those trends are going to continue in. they're probably not gonna reverse. But i think that people get overconfident about these things i think there are always countervailing forces. You know one of my favorite statistics about florida is that in two thousand. We got exactly fifty percent of the vote you know minor epsilon maybe plus epsilon and and then he flash forward twenty years florida's population has doubled. Its non share of the electorate is doubled. But we've done worse substantially worse brian. So there. there's there's countervailing forces you know. We still have a lot of room to drop among non college educated whites like this these transplant continue and get worse and the other side is that we didn't talk about this. We probably did something like eleven to twelve percent. Worse among hispanic voters this cycle than we did last time that probably wiped out maybe a decade of owner maybe not a decade at maybe half a decade of demographic change so if we're not careful about these things or if we respond to demographic changes by moving further to the left or giving us more feeling like we have more liberty to talk about things that we care about as opposed to things that voters care about then that can totally wipe that out and we can still lose elections. I think we'd have to do a whole separate episode on the whole hispanic Situation but yes. There wasn't a there was certainly an assumption that has the country Got more respect. More voters came. That would help. Democrats and we should emphasize though that the democrats still win hispanic vote. I think with with all the coverage of trump improving With hispanic voters. There's some people left with the impression somehow that he won them That's not the case. But he did do much better at particularly in certain locations. So there's a lot of work to do a lot of persuasion to do. And i appreciate your emphasis on persuading because that's what i try to do here and let's talk to people You know and and try and move their votes so Really appreciate you taking the time again. And and We we covered some ground. Thanks david thank you so much. My thanks again to david shore. He knows his data. He knows his numbers. He knows what the voters are. Thinking again. started working for obama for america at the age of twenty And has a lot of interesting insights About what voters are looking for. I enjoyed that chat If you wanna follow david on twitter. He's at david shore. And that's spelled s. h. o. r. at david shore and You know while you're on twitter. There's a guy named the civil liberal that's me. That's my moniker. But my handle is at. Cf the podcast. So if you're going to follow david follow me to at. Cf the podcast for more episodes of this fine program. I encourage you to visit. Cf the podcast dot com All the episodes are their information about the program. There's a mailing list. Hey why not join. Purpose of the mailing list is just to let you know whenever we release a new episode or if we happen to be doing something special in the future at cluster. Fuck headquarters so Go to see if the podcast dot com joined the mailing list. We love to keep in touch. But we won't bombard you don't worry and there's also a place to support the podcast. You can click on that as well as i always say. This is a labor of love. I do it out of my heart. I have no financial backer. You don't hear commercials to means. There's no advertising but we do have some expenses. This recording is coming to you from db audio dot ca We have web hosting an audio hosting and you know website design changes and all of that every time you put up a new episode of cost a few bucks so if you're feeling generous and you like what you hear here We appreciate any support. You can throw our way again. The podcast dot com. Click on support. The podcast i'm of course you can subscribe to the To the show anywhere it's available on. I tunes and in stitcher and spotify and google play and i all all your favorites But we do love it when you when you drop by the website as well. Cf the podcast dot com. If i didn't mention that already and we're on facebook to do a search for cf the podcast like the page we share episodes and other content related to what we talk about here. on that On that facebook page so in general. I'm going to thank you once again. For taking the time to listen the cluster. Fuck podcast a liberal house with red state guests. This is roger king. That'll be all.

senate obama medicare biden nate silver david shore Roger king hillary clinton clinton
Why one group of politicians is scoring high marks during the pandemic

Meet the Press: The Lid

06:02 min | 9 months ago

Why one group of politicians is scoring high marks during the pandemic

"Head space is one of the only meditation apps advancing the field of mindfulness and meditation through clinically validated research. So whatever the situation head space really can help you feel better overwhelmed. Head space has three minute. Sos meditation for you. I actually use this one the other day and it was super helpful. Head spaces approach to mindfulness. Can reduce stress improved sleep boost focus and increase your overall sense of wellbeing and maybe most importantly they make it easy for you to build a life. Changing meditation practice with mindfulness. That works for you on your schedule. Anytime anywhere you deserve to feel happier and head space. Meditation made simple go to head space dot com slash news that's head space dot com slash. Nbc news for a free one month trial with access to head space full library of meditations for every situation. This is the best deal offer right now. Head to head space dot com slash. Nbc news today. Welcome to the lid from meet the press. I'm curious dan. There have been plenty of stages of the pandemic. There was the panic by all the toilet paper upstage. There was the better. Make the best of it. At adapt stage shown perhaps most impressively by small businesses. That have been busting their tails to keep customers interested at least in my city restaurants are largely doing this with incredibly innovative ways to sell booze. Never change dc then. Of course there's been the well when there's a vaccine stage and thank god were in the. There is a vaccine stage. Even though how all that is going to work is still a big question. Mark and throughout all of it as we have transitioned from one phase to the next. There's always been this question. So we what happens now. And who's gonna tell me that i trust see. With a totally unforeseen circumstances thrown it all americans many have been seeking guidance from leaders scientists. Yes but also elected officials to tell them what the heck the plan is humans after all like certainty in an uncertain time and it turns out. There is one type of leader. Who is faring far better than others in communicating. what their plans are to deal with coronavirus. At least from what. Americans say in a new gallup poll turns out. It's the same group that's been consistently getting pretty good rating since the beginning of this thing. I'm talking about governors. After all governor's sort of have this unique combination of being very visible powerful leaders who can create tangible results and might be less stymied by total partisan warfare. I guess depending on your state. Unlike our current president and president-elect they don't necessarily have a huge part of their constituency hardwired to hate their guts no matter what see for example the fact that republican governors have been elected and are pretty popular in blue massachusetts and maryland and of course there are democratic governors in ruby red louisiana and kentucky. And what we see from this new. Gallup poll is that about half fifty. One percent of americans give their state's governor good marks for clearly communicating their covert plan and. That's a bit higher than joe biden about forty six percent of americans say the same about him and it's far higher than president trump. For whom just a third of americans say that. He's clearly communicated a covert plan. Both of the ratings for biden and trump by the way are mostly based around the fact that their own partisans think they're guy has done a good job biden's faring better because independence an even a small chunk of republicans us a biden's doing an okay job now. The centers for disease control by the way are doing as bad. As president trump on this measure the cdc tended to get better marks at the beginning of the pandemic. But there's been a lot of fluctuation and now trusting them is down it's worth noting that's not about partisanship both democrats and republicans. Give the cdc pretty poor marks and just thirty one percent. Say they've done a good job communicating their plan now. The key thing to remember about governors is that they do appear to have some crossover appeal overall. Democratic governors are getting slightly better marks on dealing with the virus than republicans but all told about a third of democrats approve of their republican governors performance and about a third of republicans approve of their democratic governors performance in a time of this match polarization. That's almost impressive. And it's all a reminder of the stakes by the way in being races for governor and there are a lot of them. There's only two in twenty twenty one in virginia and new jersey but in twenty twenty two there are thirty six states that will elect their governors. Thirty six all told those races account for more than eighty percent of the us population according to politico. And as we've pretty obviously seen from this pandemic all of those races are gonna count. That's a live for us. If you'd like to hear more of this audio you can always download us on your favorite podcast app. Hey it's crusades this week of my podcast wise happening be talking with data scientists and election consultant david shore about what exactly happened in that twenty twenty election. You know we talk about college and non college and that's just because that's something that's very easy to measure but the real divide is long kind of these deeper cultural or personality traits. And you know. That's kind of claim here. But i guess just assume back polling so this opened up this big error in bowling. And i think this highlights something. That's really scary about polling. Which is that. You can have a method works. And then the coalition's change or who answers. The phone could change. And then suddenly you're steph will break this week on. Why is happening. Search for wise is happening wherever you're listening right now and subscribe.

Nbc news biden ruby red louisiana cdc dan joe biden Mark maryland massachusetts kentucky republicans david shore politico new jersey virginia us
Why Trump is Really Winning (Ep 1470)

The Dan Bongino Show

1:03:51 hr | 7 months ago

Why Trump is Really Winning (Ep 1470)

"Get ready to hear the truth about america on a show that's not immune to the facts with your host. Dan bongino folks every everything. Every single thing you've been told about. The twenty twenty election is wrong. Everything everything. I read a piece in new york mag by most likely a liberal writer. Who's interviewing and already out. liberal pollster. admit their liberal pollsters. There's no guys here trying to be independent. It's a liberal pollster guy. That has some stunning information about twenty twenty. That if you don't hear it you're you're you're totally out of the. I'm telling you it was an eye opener. I'm not overselling it. I'm gonna hit that on the show today. Because the peace explains why the left is doubled and tripled down on cancel culture and getting rid of trump now so he doesn't run in twenty twenty. Four g has effort. Tease a little shorter and sweeter. What do you think. Key liked the joe What do you think a good tease that. Okay okay. I'm not selling this. I'm not over hyping this. It's that important. And by the way to lady who asked in the comments section yesterday. Why i'm always looking around at things. I don't know i just can never focus on anything. Maybe i've got some kind of mild tension problem. I don't know. I promise you. I'm not staring. It's just my eyeballs dart all over but thank you for the question today. Show you expressed. Vpn your data. it's your business yours get a vpn today. Don't wait go to express. Vpn dot com slash bungee welcomed. The dan bongino show already blew everything by introducing joe. We'll get to the bell in a minute. But i've got that i've got why it explains cancel culture an amazing pete's on why can't so culture i i a culture matters. No no no why it really matters why the whole argument that amazon's a private company isn't gonna stick when they start banning books nope no. Thanks all right. Let's get to the show today. Show brought to you by. Md hearing aid. What's md hearing it. It is an fda approved. This is my dad's new favourite hearing abo digital hearing the cost a fraction of what typical hearing aids costs the average price of a hearing aid in america's just over twenty four hundred dollars a pair but md hearing aids volt plus monkey psych really bo plus model is are just two ninety nine each when you buy a pair to ninety nine each when you buy a pair. That's nearly ninety percent. Less empty hearing aid was founded by ent surgeon. Who saw many of his patients couldn't afford them. He made it his mission to develop a solid quality hearing aid that anyone could afford their sleek designed fits so well no one notice your even wearing. It's rechargeable with a battery. Life that lasts up to thirty hours approve in up to three feet of water. You don't even need a prescription. Or a doctor's appointment you buy it directly from them with audiologist and license hearing specials available seven days a week how they so affordable well since about ninety five percent of the people in need a hearing aid only require a few settings. Md hearing aids simplified the need for certain components needed by most people. They have over six hundred thousand satisfied customers. They have an a plus better business bureau rating and they offer a forty five day. Risk-free trial with a one. Hundred percent money-back guarantees. You can buy with confidence again either. My father's new faves it's time to reclaim your life from hearing loss. Go to m d hearing aid dot com and use promo code bongino b. o. n. g. to get their buy one. Get one to ninety nine ninety nine each offer plus they're adding a free extra charging case sixty dollar value just for listeners of my show so had had to. Md hearing aid dot com. Use promo code bongino or you can even call them at one. Eight hundred seven three four nine five to four. That's one eight hundred seven three four nine five to four. Thanks hearing aid. All right. Joe rarely. I'm always stoked. But rarely am i this stoked for show yesterday sitting in the oncologists office waiting for my cat scan. I'll give you the results tomorrow. Let's hope everything's good. I think it is mall. About the power of positive thought these days yet and i'm scrolling through for content right joe for tomorrow show because that's all my entire life has show prep. That's all i do these days. And i come across this. Absolute gem in new york mag dot com by eric levitz david shore on why trump was good for the gop. And how can win in two thousand and twenty two. This is a left leaning magazine interviewing a leftist guy. David sure on why trump read that headline again folks on why trump was good for the gop the insights in the peace our stunning. Because everything you've been told about. Twenty twenty is wrong. Let me tell you. I to access you have to read the whole piece. It's quite long. It'll take you about fifteen minutes. It's a good solid two thousand words plus it is worth your time. I sent it to my friend on the trump campaign and said if you don't read this today i can't talk to you ever again did really say that. But that's what. I was thinking everything you've been told by two thousand twenty to read it. Go to bongino dot com slash newsletter. Subscribe to my newsletter. I'll email you stuff like this every money. Let's get to premise number one. I believed myself. That i've now totally thrown out the window. Because liberal pollster going through. The data has told me that this assertion is wrong. What does that assertion it said. Hey joe you know. Trump got seventy five million votes in the election. The most ever for gop candidate because just gop turnout was just really high makes sense. He makes sense. Joe yeah all right. Lot of republicans like trump. He was popular and just a lot. More republicans turned out to vote for trump. Wrong you're wrong key joe. You're wrong to your both fires. Immediate lawsuit sued. Yes sorry it was a good run. Thank you for your time. I do wrong totally. I was wrong to the fire myself. That's not what happened. What do you mean it somewhat happen the. Gop did turn out to degrees. Never turned out before trump clearly by a long shot. Got the most votes ever for gop candidate running for president folks. It wasn't higher turnout. It was persuasion. Let that collagen settle into jello for a minute. Let that mortar harden up what it wasn't hired. Gop turnout out. It was trump digging into the democrat base in persuading them for the first time to vote for republicans. That's the verdict in. That's a really that may seem like a simple thing dan. That was obvious. no no. It wasn't obvious it wasn't obvious. At all matter of fact liberals member the narrative always matters and the media have been very eager to tell you. Yeah you know. Trump did well amongst republicans. He did well when he got the most votes but only did it because republicans turned out. They are very eager to make the idea. Go away that maybe trump was onto something and for the first time started to persuade career. Lifelong democrat voters that the gop was a better option that would be very damaging narrative because it would lead to the narrative that trump was not a negative force in this country but maybe a positive one for getting people to open their eyes to other ideas. Oh my gosh. we can't have that out there. Let me read to you. If you're not seeing by the way how astonishing. This is and the ramifications. It explains everything. I'm then i'm not doing a good enough job. That trump was a positive force for the. Gop can never get out there. They hated him so much. They want nothing but negativity attached to his name and if trump's powers of persuasion were so good that even democrats started to vote for them. The media can't come out and say next gosh. democrats are just really stupid because they voted for trump. Do do you understand. That's not a powerful stuff. That's not a great thing to say. their whole line of joe. My making sense. Please tell your whole line has been you. Republicans are all racist nazis. Therefore you voted for the racist. Nazi trump. But what if that's not really the story. What if the story was that. Trump actually persuaded a lot of the democrats. The media told us you're good people that he had the better ideas pretty's array cest at a nazi while that would mean a lot of democrats. Were racist the nazis to it also explains away cancel culture. I know you get to the piece. I know i know but there's so much juice in here. It explains cancel culture to why the rapid deterioration into to cancel culture madness to wipe trump off the face of the earth. Twitter facebook stripe salesforce every why because of his powers of persuasion were so powerful that he even convinced lifelong democrat that he had the better ideas than man. We'd better shut him down. Quick what a danger right without further ado. Let's get the screenshot one. Read this whole piece. It's worth your time. I'll read this. And then i'll explain it they. They're talking about the idea that hey trump just you know he got those votes because like i said he just was high republican turnout quote but that looks wrong it really seems like the electorate was slightly more democratic than it had been in two thousand sixteen the exact opposite folks not more republican largely due to demographic change because there's such a large partisan gap between younger and older voters every four years. The electorate get something like zero point. Four percent more democratic. Just do generational churn younger people. Vote democrat more folks. it's older people die. The electorate shows up to vote becomes more democrats simple as that back to the quote. So trump didn't exceed expectations by inspiring higher than anticipated republican turnout. Here's the kicker he exceeded them mostly through persuasion. A lot of voters change their minds between two thousand sixteen and twenty twenty. How can that be. Trump's said he's racist nazi. How can that be. How can that be between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. A boat loaded traditional democrats. Change their mind to vote for a guy. The media swore is a russian colluding. Treasonous racist nazi. How is that. How is that folks. I have to tell you. I was fooled by that too. I thought it was as his extremely high popularity amongst republicans which drove traditional republican. Sit outs in other words. Joe people who sit out elections only vote every whatever ten twelve sixteen years I thought to myself gosh incentivize them because people love them to show up and vote. No no no no no no. That's that's not what happened. The electorate was actually more democrat. So if if the electorate was more democrat and trump got a record number of votes and it wasn't more republicans voting for then who exactly was voting for the trumpster. There's gotta be some data now. We haven't henceforth the peace now that the data about the election is starting to seep out there exit polls questioned who. You voted for her. You didn't racial breakdowns. There are some fascinating conclusions right now and bottom line up front before i get to this next screen shop. The gop is now becoming the party of the working man. Hold hold william model. Stop old but the spears partout of that. Regardless of race black middle-class working families hispanic middle class working families asian. American working families are now starting to say. I'm not really about those defend. The police high tax cancelled. Dr seuss democrats. I'm not really digging that chile. I'm gonna give this trump guy looks now the media of course absent this guy who is david shore who is not a conservative. He's a liberal. This is warning. He's writing for the democrats where you is. Republicans should finally put your chest out shoulders back and chin china pie and do what i told you at cpac speech be proud of the fact that we are on the right side of this that freedom economic liberty a all matter. Public safety matters. These are our issues not the left and the working class waking up regardless of race. Listen to this. i'm going to read it. Quote new york mag at the subgroup level. Democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent amongst non college whites and roughly seven percent amongst white college graduates. He writes parentheses. Which is kinda crazy. So democrats are becoming the party of rich white liberals yet. The democrats support among african americans declined something like one to two percent and then hispanic support dropped by eight to nine percent. The jury's still out on asian americans. They're waiting on the data from california. But there's evidence that there was something like a five percent decline in asian american support for democrats with a lot of variance among subgroups. There were really big. Declines in vietnamese areas for example says anyway. One implication of these shifts is at the education polarization one up and racial polarization. Went down quote here. It is the kudarat in other words. The voters level of educational attainment whether they had a college degree or not became more predictive of which party they voted for and twenty twenty. Then in two thousand sixteen while voters. racial identity. Became less predictive. Joe how have we not been saying this. Now you're not wasting your time on my show that identity politics. The democrats. endless appeals to voters. Say vote for us because the republicans are racist. They hate you. What did i tell you that. Identity politics and cancel culture will eventually cannibalize the left. Why why why. Because you can't constantly advocate for policies that pick preferential that that give preferential treatment to groups without harming other racial groups who start to say That kind of sounds racist to me. Wanna put meat on the bone. What do i mean by that. You can't advocate for eliminating charter schools. Saying we need more racial equality charter. Schools are only for racist white republicans when it's actually black and hispanic families and a lot of struggling economic economically struggling districts that are benefiting from them. They feel like gosh. That's really weird. A bunch of rich white liberals are telling me. My kid can't go to a charter school. That sounds kind of racist. But the liberals pitches that we're doing it because republicans are racist and everybody's like my kids being closed down charge because the democrats. That doesn't quite make sense. What about an even easier example. You know the specialty schools in new york city bronx science and other ones these elite schools. What about asian minority families work really hard and they have to score two and three hundred points higher on an entrance exam to get into a school two or three hundred hundred points higher than white black or hispanic families because there's air quotes here too many asians in those schools. Joe that sounds kind of racist. Doesn't just just checking seriously. It's a racist check for democrats. We have to do that once in a while because the democrats no one checks them for their racism. Thank you joe. joe agrees. That sounds kind of racist. there's an asian quota the jewish quota back in. That sounds. That sounds kind of racist bigoted. An asian voters kind of like. Hey m my kid can't get into a school because there's an asian quota. I not really digging. i'm not. I'm not really taking that working. Class parents with dirt under their fingernails. Asian bite i mean. Excuse me asian hispanic black minorities even white working class. Voters are saying this democrat. Pitch about everything being racist all the time. Sounds kind of racist to me. Sad in more new democrats. I'm sure audience archivist. Judy could pull multiple clips where. I've worn them repeatedly. There endless appeals to their voters claiming everyone and their mother is a racist but them while it's actually the democrats pushing racist. Policies was inevitably going to backfire as people get hurt in their own. Homes as the hispanic trucker gets fired from his job. as bill. maher said the other day for flicking boettger and someone says no that looked like a white supremacist sign. Remember that on the show the other day the guy was spanish. He works for a living. He's a white supremacist. Wow that's weird so take away number one. It wasn't higher turnout amongst republicans that led to trump's historic number of votes. It was his powers of persuasion. That makes them dangerous. Dangerous in the cancel culture is second takeaway number two. The gop is rapidly becoming the party of working class voters regardless of your race finally takeaway number. Three's a lot. I'm gonna let me get to my my my second sponsor i'm going to. I didn't intend on spending this much time on this. But this is so critical to that and i'll get back to the third takeaway that how my trump made the democrats show their arses theory. Can i say that. I think we're going to have to show their caboose theory. that's my theory. But that one joe that trump liberal show their butts theory scientific documented theory cited many times in scientific jer. Just but the democrats had a show their caboose his theory. How part three this takeaways part of that stadium. All right. today's show also brought to you by got a new sponsor today absolutely stoked to have onboard. Start mail free. Email services like g mail and yahoo aren't really free when something ladies and gentlemen is air quotes free. You are being sold. You pay with these email services g mail on yahoo with your privacy and so's companies have access to every email you send and receive big tech can sell your day to the highest bidder. You know my interest in the parallel economy escaping the big tech tires. That's why was more than happy to take this company on as a sponsor. Start mail as i really trust. Start mail to secure our email operation. It makes us all feel safe again. Start mail start mail start mail. It keeps my email. Private period. every emails encrypted even if the recipient doesn't use encryption which means big tech can't read scan analyze or sell my personal information ever not even big brother snoop around your email start mail also prevents government agencies from spying on you like these dragnet operations which start male deleted means deleted deleted gone forever forever and ever and start. Mail uses their own servers. Amazon's which means they can't be put out of business start. Males also backed by the most stringent privacy laws in the world. You get unlimited anonymous. Aliases the feature protect your main email address from spam and phishing attacks. When you're giving your email a company but want to protect your identity start milking generate a sharable. So people can't sell your info and nee can be deleted any time. Get rid of spy male. Go to start mail today. I don't trust big tech ever ever and neither. Should you start securing your email privacy right now today which start mail sign up. Today you'll get fifty percent off five zero fifty percent of your first year. Go to start mail. Start with a t start mail dot com slash bongino that start mail dot com slash bongino for fifty percent of your first year. Do not wait another day. Start mail dot com slash bongino. Go today back to the show. So the third takeaway from this astonishingly good piece is. I've had this theory for a long time. Joe has been subjected to listening to forever. He's probably tired of it. But it's my theory of why the democrats were so ineffective against trump and it's because they were laden with emotion rather than an effective tactical response trump so bothered them because he was the first republican candidate in a longtime any prominence to finally give the double barrel middle finger. We use the index finger on the show for the family friendly crab. He gave the double barrel to the left. What did the left due to the republicans in the past. And how did they respond. George w bush and others that knocking them. I'm just saying this is what happened. George w bush would say something. The left would come out and do what you ask trae says. Of course it wasn't they just made it up. And what would bush and others in the past and get them out knocking. I'm just using an example. From recent history. Bush team in the white house would come out and apologized for something that wasn't racist and all and nothing to do with race at all. As a matter of fact the left would do what they would they would. They would pop the champagne. Corks drinking the champagne like they just won the world series. Got a win win win. No matter they loved it they thought it was great. They'd have their lombardi trophy in the locker book. We got these idiots. We got these dope show to apologize for something we said was racist even though we knew we just made it up. What bunch of morons trump didn't do that trump gave exactly zero hits s. Didn't care they'd come out they'd make stuff up. Trump doesn't bike immigrants or evidence of that at all. Trump doesn't like black folk is absolutely zero evidence that and trump just wouldn't turn around and play their game matter of fact he would double down and call them fake news. It couldn't it. Couldn't take it. They couldn't they couldn't take it because they're like wait. Wait we d- some pavlovian conditioning. Response reward right not stimulus response sake majors out. There still remember my stuff. The republicans would respond. They would apologize for fake charges of racism and that was a reward to the democrats who would humiliate them in the media. They apologize for something they didn't do. And that felt rewarding and powerful and it led to political victories for them in the past. Not so much anymore. So the democrats just continued to behavior so they learned response reward. They learned like when i was in my inspire mental psychology classes. Thirsty animal in a cage. You've put a dipper. They eventually figure out the different how to get water droplets right and it's rewarding because then they're not thirsty anymore response reward well. What happens in the dipper training. Right when a really thirsty say caged animal. Right starts hitting the dipper. And they're really thirsty in the water doesn't come out. What are you get every single time you get a freakout you get what they call an extinction burst the behavior. Maniacal hitting the dipper. I'm not kidding you could see it. Everywhere across human beings any living creature that that has some cognition capabilities or even basic nor on connections you get panicked extinction vers. No you don't really ever put a dollar and a coke machine. The coke doesn't come out. What do people do so damn people. Don't get what do they do. It doesn't do anything. why do you do it. Because we're all living creatures that obey some of the same iron laws of psychology. We made a response. We put a. We did an opera noparat baby. You put a dollar in the coke. Didn't come out. And what do we do freak out in an extinction burst the behavior. Even we know it does nothing. You're in the midst right. Now of the biggest democrat extinction burst in human history. You're seeing panicked shaking the coke machine by democrats who can't figure out why a guy think is a racist buffoon who is actually a very talented politician. Donald trump keeps pulling their voters away from their working class base despite their protest stations. That they're the party of the little guy. How is this happening. And every time we doubled down and show our butts and call him a racist and a buffoon and zina foam. He doesn't apologize and admitted he doubles down. Even more and calls us the racist fake news. What do we do. We shake the coke machine. That's what we do now. Joe wouldn't you agree. Shake in the coke machine is counterproductive. Doesn't do anything. The coke doesn't come out a lot of noise. it doesn't come out of the machine you ship but people do it they kick it out day yell at it. I two machine yes. Give me my call. Shot listening to you. It doesn't process in from joe's done so i thought it. Yeah and me. And joe relatively smart guys sometimes on mondays and fridays in the week it blues. We yell at the machine. Sound like what the democrats are doing now. Yelling at the machine is counterproductive. Right it doesn't do anything yet. I just told you what the democrats are doing on their on their on their policy support. There's supportive defunding. The police cancel culture. I told you what they're doing is counterproductive. They're driving working class. Voters in droves to people like donald trump and republicans. and yet. they continue to do it. Why because it's an extinction burst. It's not rational. They are having a psychological meltdown to a guy who won't deliver the coke when they deliver the dollar they deliver the dollar. You're racist every other republican. Deliver the coke we apologize. We're so sorry trump double-barreled. You're the racist and your fake news. What we do kick the machine yell at it. But that's counterproductive wasting energy. They don't care they don't care they don't care because they can't control themselves they can't i told you. Identity politics backfiring. I told you cancel cultures backfiring. They're canceling liberals now. They keep doing it because they in in the middle of the biggest extinction burst in political in the modern history of politics this is the most destructive extinction burst. You've ever seen. That was a long set up to take away number three keys. Like my gosh. We're on subject. One one of eight. Sorry super important. Here's takeaway number three from this spectacular piece. So why are the democrats doing this. Engaging in an extinction burst of cancel culture endless charges of racism knowing it's decimating their party quote from the peace so this leads to the question of why why did non white voters start sorting more by ideology. And that's a hard thing to know but the authors organization and partner organizations have done extensive post-election surveys of twenty twenty voters they look specifically at voters who switched from clinton in two thousand sixteen to trump and twenty twenty to see whether anything distinguishes this subgroup in terms of their policy opinions. Angry with me couple more sensitive. What they found is that clinton voters with conservative views on. Oh conservative us on crime policing and public safety or far more likely to switch the trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues. Sounds like something. I said and having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from clinton at the trump and having conservative views on any other issue set was armacost. How many times it'd be worn these buffoons on the left. You know as a former police officer in law enforcement officer at the federal level. I really don't think defunding the police in neighborhoods where people's kids are getting mugged on the way to school. I joe this is a stretch but not really sure. That's a good idea. No probably not joe struggling with it. Too key struggling. He can't figure it out. He's like really. That's not a good idea and you are a police officer in a really high crime area. You've set on the show multiple times that residents would come out of their house. Begging you to lock up the drug dealers and also begging you not to say anything. Because they didn't want the drug dealers beating them up on the way to school. You told the democrats that the overwhelming majority of people in high crime areas are not the criminals racist democrats know that they don't understand that. I worked in a high crime minority neighborhood the seven five precinct in east new york brooklyn and i will never forget mothers grandmothers fathers grandfathers coming out of their house. Officer you'd have to go in an alleyway or something. I'm not a joke by the way it's not funny time. Sometimes we do funny time this saying it you guy in a corner. Yeah he's been slinging dope for weeks. He's scaring all the kids. He's you know he's got a gun on them all the time. We need you guys to do something that happened. Probably once every two weeks or so which is a lot because for people who are afraid to get people to come out but that would happen often enough and it really transform a lot of my thinking at a young age that the eighty twenty rule applies twenty percent of the people are causing eighty percent of the damage. But it says something interesting that eighty percent of the people in those neighborhoods. Probably more actually really fine. Decent people are struggling a bit. They'd like to move out but maybe the job isn't promote right now. And they don't have the money and they're hurt man. They got kids. They got jobs. They've got a car that gets broken into they've got a house gets broken into money that gets stolen from them. They've got realized. And the real citizens with real concerns. Just like you and me. How do you think it sounds to those people pulling you in the alleyway. 'cause they don't want the drug dealer to see him. How do you think it sounds to them when you dopey ridiculous party comes out and says hey. I've got a good idea. Let's fund the police and pull that police officer off the corner. How do you think it sounds to them. Answer is you know exactly how it sounds. So why don't you stop if you're a democrat or a liberal. Why don't you stop because you can't. Because donald trump is such a powerful force in politics whose powers of persuasion or not it all now even by a democrat of democrat wrote this piece not even disputed by democrats that instead of fighting him on ideas you just simply engage in extinction bursts of behavior. And you do. The opposite of what trump said trump supports police. Defend them even knowing that it's destroying your entire party in your entire brand and literally getting people killed you. Just don't care you will shake that coke machine until you're at an energy until you break it and you dia thirst you don't care because you can't you simply can't control yourself. I got more on this next. It's a nice synopsis in a piece by hugo gordon. If you please read the show notes today again. It's in the show notes bongino dot com slash newsletter. It's a washington examiner piece proving my point of the trump. You show your caboose theory that he forces the democrats to show their butts to people or humiliate themselves do things counterproductive because they just hate him and they wanna shake the coke machine piece. I'll get to that next. See me and getting a little flow here now. He knows when it's time you like that. You see very puts the spot up very nice. Little boy was the deep segment there. Little emotional break their candidate been here two weeks starting to get my flow. You know little. Espn connection there. All right today show brought to you by. Our friends are back open fit. It's been challenging. Stay consistent with your fitness routine. From home we all know that it's been a rough year. That's why there's open fit. Open fit is a simple streaming service allows you to work out from the comfort of your own home in as little as ten minutes day but get a good work at anybody can say that ten minutes their workouts are notch. Actually work open fit offers. Live classes for some of the most famous trainers in the world. Who can give you personal feedback. In real time you can take a ton of different classes from beginner to advanced strength training cardio polite yoga meditation. I can use some of that. Plus it's the best deal and fitness. You get a full year personal training classes for about the cost of one in person training session. That's the whole year by turning your camera on. The trainer can see you and can interact with other people in the class. Don't worry if you're camera shy you can still work out. Keep your camera off. No worries sculpture your body with andrea rogers founder of the worldwide. Extend bar sensation plus nutrition plans to help you with your weight loss. Goals right now. My listeners get free fourteen day. Trial membership don't blow this offer a free fourteen day. Trial membership to open fit when you taxed. Bongino gino two fifty fifty fifty five zero five zero five zero. If you side to keep the service which i know you well you're gonna love it. The entire year is only ninety. Six dollars deal. It's truly the best deal and fitness. you'll get a full access to open all the workouts and a nutrition guide totally free for fourteen days. Just text on gino to fifty fifty fifty text bongino to fifty fifty fifty standard message and data rates may apply. Check it out. Get everything tight back together. All right i guess. Probably ready to kill me. Because i sent him. Joe a boatload of material because it really is a loaded newsday seriously. I'm sorry i'm really. You have my apologies for spending all that time in that segment. But i really think i think it's important. It's all summed up by this piece by hugo. Gordon is the editor in chief. The washington examiner. It's in the show notes. I want you to read. Spent a ton of time on because it sums up what i just said. But the headline is biden's bungling anti-trump ism starts to fray the gist of the piece. Is this folks. It's exactly what i just said showing you. I'm not the only one thinking about this. Trump made the democrats show their butts theory in other words. The democrats are doing things that are counter-productive only because they hate trump. Not because they think it helps the democrats and the evidence is piling up. Hugo gordon's thesis in this piece short but worth your time. Is that everything. Biden's doing now. Joe go through the list. Let's open the border. Why because trump built a border wall. Let's rip the border wall down. All of this stuff is obviously on. Its face entirely counterproductive. Even if you agree with a liberal immigration policy saying i've seen people not not radical leftist. Same people would say. Maybe we should still finish that wall. I mean we already paid for it. The stuff is still out there in the desert. The biden team's leaving the stuff out to think that we're not going to finish it. Matter of fact we should seriously consider ripping down what we already built. Same people are like joe. That sounds kind of dumb. Yeah but it doesn't matter it doesn't matter because trump said build a wall so biden in coke shaking machine episode in the biggest extinction burst in human history has to say rip the down trump said he loved the wall and everybody's like trump said he supports law enforcement. Get rid of them all man. We got george roy. Police bail out there today. Run it through the outset. George floyd police bill which will withhold or the fun federal funding from police departments. If they don't follow konia guidelines about policing the defunding polices back. They don't care. They're reading the same piece of new york mag that it is destroying their brand amongst middle class working americans black hispanic does it matter and they do it anyway because they have to shake the coke machine because they just hate donald trump trump said. He loves the police. They gotta get rid of the police. Trump said let's pull out of the paris. Climate accord's doesn't look fair to america. It imposes conditions on. America doesn't impose on the rest of the world biden. Trump said it. We gotta get right back in that deal. Yeah dude. we're struggling right now. Maybe we should have those conditions imposed on the rest of the world before the united states where we crush our own energy economy. Biden's like trump pulled out of it. So we gotta go back in shaking the coke machine again. All in hugo gordon's peace brilliant piece. The headline should have been trump. made the democrats show. Their caboose is another thing he addresses in the piece. The iran deal so we got iran. You know the whole death to america crowd literally death to america. That's their that's their campaign sign. You know khomeini twenty twenty four more death to america you know. Make america great again. I mean that's their campaign slogan they love debt to america. That's more there's not enough. Death to america doesn't matter trump said. Hey i'm not sure we should be given the staff to america crew all our money especially on pallets. That sounds dumb joke kind of stupid just throwing that out there. Death to america fund the death to america american. That's really not a good idea so what happens. Biden gets into office and because trump makes them shake the coke machine and show their butts. What is bein do. We're definitely getting back into death to america deal so well defunding police rip down the border wall. Keep your kids out of school and fund the death to america with their more death to america. Two thousand twenty four slogan and. They don't get it. How middle-class sane americans black white hispanic asian vietnamese cuban puerto rican whatever. It may be. Like i think that sounds kinda stupid. I'm going to check out these these. Gop cats who i've said repeatedly may not be the answer to all your problems. Well i know that because there's a lot of failures on our side too but the democrats are most definitely the cause of all your problems. I love this show today. This show. I could go on. This is one of those days. I'm just like totally in the zone. Now messing totally in this. I keep the show going for like three hours. Joe no jokin. Read my mind. He's at the my seventy five percent mind reading state. I'm serious. I can do this. Show all. I'm not even the show is done in revert this page to but i love that story so much on page two. I made it page one. Those you watch the show. How do i usually do the flip through. How does the flipper ru works the binders this way. Because i only ride on this side the flip aroo goes this way. You'll notice today if i get to. The flipper wrote that. The flipper will go the other way. Because i had so much material. When i started writing on page two. I love page two stories. So i made them page one. You perceptive viewers. Catch that. But i just told you cheat anyway all right now. There's a natural segue here to my next block. Do you now understand why. Cancel culture which has been around a while. Let's be honest about it a long while but you understand why cancel culture seems that much more profound and impactful right now. It's almost like we're seeing instead of arithmetic. Growth geometric growth the cancel culture right joe. It's like we used to have an incident what once a week now. We have four five incidents at day. Amazon's banning books dr seuss's in publishing dr seuss books. The bachelor guy is fired for giving an interview about another bachelor. Cancel the bachelor guys canceled for talking about a bachelorette getting cancelled and then they cancel them. And then they cancel the host of the bachelor. No and then. They cancelled a person who hosted the host of the bachelor. I'm not gonna get to that story at minute. Hopefully to it's in the show show biz for one month. They cancel a woman as a contestant on the bachelor dan. They cancel the host of the show for talking about the canceled woman. And then the woman who interviews to host who got cancelled cancels self. Not a joke. Not kidding it's in the show notes today showbiz for one. Not a right leaning site where they're like. Hey maybe this is getting create. Why is it getting crazy. Why is everybody can't switch on my sweater. this is the show. I'm gonna have my son because of that article. I just told you democrats powerbrokers. They're liberal connected elites in hollywood wall street and everyone else are starting to figure out that trump may been onto something that maybe he just took the edge off a little bit that not only would he have won that election but he would have won that election and probably a landslide again. The edge doesn't bother me. I'm i'm trying to get in the democrats head. They're saying okay. He didn't persuade extra republicans to turn out. He's actually eating into our democrat working class base. Which we've been lying and telling people where about whereabout the working class and now trump is eating into it. This guy is a real problem what we do. Well joe a sane person would say well. We could battle him on the field of ideas and stick up for the police and talk about business. Don't know they want to defend the police. They're shaken the coke machine because they can't control themselves because they can't control themselves. They've decided they're going to go full blown totalitarian and wipe trump and all his supporters of the face of the earth hence the exponential growth in cancel culture. Here is a terrific piece about it by abigail cherie who in our sub sub stack which democrats want band too because subject that people get the write their thoughts you know. These are unapproved thoughts by the william democrat. Totalitarians i'm going to get to the peace. That's my show again. This is the must read show notes today. Obviously but i wanna start with this question if the left are so proud of what they're doing and they really think they're on the right side of the moral arc of history. I'm serious shows a serious question. The why are they so embarrassed about their rolling cancel culture. I'm not joking. it's a serious question. Yeah have you noticed joe. The euphemism game. They play with cancel culture. It's not cancel culture joe. It's accountability culture okay. No we're not canceling. It's it's all about capitalism joe. It's free mark. Democrats about free markets. That's hilarious all about free. markets joe. democrats are all of a sudden. They're allies for free markets. I wrote this note. Excellent democrats who want to impose government mandates on free-market private businesses government mandates for wages environmental stuff content on cable. They want fox news canceled but they don't want any requirements for freedom and openness and non monopolies. We're right if i know it's a struggle for you. I'm accustomed if they're so proud i really well. We knew that head-scratching thing you you've put on there once in a while if they're so proud i if you're proud then why play the euphemism game why not just say hey we're canceling unapproved thoughts because totalitarianism and tyranny is great. Because they're embarrassed because the left which is lied to people for decades and told them we're the party of the working class. Where the party of the aco you in civil liberties and civil rights is now looking in the mirror and realizing my gosh. That's that's that's really not us where the ones terrorizing people economically cancelling people for fake nazi stages at cpac even though a liberal company designed it. Where cancelling the bachelor. For cancelling a woman who cancelled the bachelor and got cancelled after cancelling the bachelor where the ones kneeling at the american flag. While most americans really loved that flag. We're doing gosh. That's really been canceling anyone who speaks out the. Us soccer guy who said i don't think we should kneel if you're playing for the u s soccer team the us soccer guy a guy who lost limbs in combat. Who spoke out gets can't get cancelled to the left. Must be embarrassed by that. That's why they play the euphemism game. All right i'll get this abigail share peace and second. Let me get to my final sponsor because this piece is critical and and i have a big announcement. It's an announcement about announcement. Don't let me forget that it's import. It was actually story number nine but covered. Don't worry i will. I will walk you because this poor guy. I'm all over the place. Because i have so much stuff today. All right our final sponsor today beyond this right after the show teeter. Welcome peter you know. I love data inversion tables. Teeters now bringing you a full body. Zero impact exercises with one simple machine. The amazing free step recumbent cross trainer. It is my new go-to full-body training folks. I don't like to mess around. This is my new. Go to the free stepper. Coming crush trainer fitness plays a huge role in my life. My wife and i love it. Why because it's low impact they can walk away from getting a killer workout sweating my heart rate up because i like to go hard on this thing my knees and back or good. The teeter step is totally unique to anything else out there because it is truly low impact with technology license from commercial pt equipment. You'll experience a smooth linear strive to protect your joints better than any other cardio machine. I have ever used. It works all my muscles without wearing my body down. I do tabas sprints on it there is truly nothing like it dollar resistance down to warm up or crank it up like i do for it absolutely amazing calorie burning work at. That's full body. You grapplers out. There will love this thing. Forget that old bike with the thing. The free step is proven to burn seventeen percent more calories than a recumbent bike plus you get access. The trainer led workout videos on the free. Teeter move app for personal training and motivation motivation. The comfort of your own home. What are you waiting for. Get moving and feel great and twenty twenty one. We'll put up a picture of this mine in my garage garage. You can check out the free step. Recumbent cross trainer music mind today. Teeter has a great offer for you get the teeter free step recumbent cross trainer for one hundred dollars off when you go to teeter. T. e. r. Dot com slash. Dan get this item today. It is spectacular. The teacher free step is over a thousand reviews with a four point six star rating with this deal exclusive dealing one hundred dollars off and you go to teeter dot com slash dan. You get free shipping and a sixty day money back guarantee. There's no reason not to try it. Remember you can only get the teeter free step coming cross trainer and save one hundred dollars going teeter dot com slash dan. That's teeter dot com slash. Dan is works for everyone from seniors. Just getting back into the exercise game to those guys at one blow up a full body workout. This is the perfect device for everyone on that spectrum. Teeter dot com slash. Dan check out the free step. All right back to the show and this abigail sheer piece. So the pieces about amazon's disturbing turn towards tyranny amazon's shaking the coke machine to engaged in one of the largest extinction bursts in human history along with their democrat masters. Amick amazon is now banning books all together. Which as i've repeatedly stated he was worse than book burning because at least in book burning. You have the book so you can probably photocopy it on the ut before the democrat tyrants come to burn the book right you can actually preserve some of the content book. Banning is even worst than book burning headline book banning in an age amazon. The world's largest bookstore begins quietly deleting books. Holy moses we are now living in a totalitarian dystopia in society and liberals are shaken the coke machine all the way through. She talks about addresses. This first argument number one which liberals always make disingenuously again not realizing they're canceling themselves liberals because they're shaking a coke machine they say. Hey we're all about free. Markets joe that by the way that's hilarious liberals are all about capitalism again the same liberals that want to impose government mandates on free markets for and fire mental rules content. You can put on your show. They want to boycott ideas. They don't like they're all about free. Markets now joe so she says in the piece abigail. She goes some argue. It's amazon's right to drop a book. Though it possesses many of the frightful powers of government and fewer the limitations amazon is not the government as a private company. Many argue it retains the right to stock shelves. Whatever it chooses as someone put it to abigail on twitter public. Stop carrying my favorite salad dressing what i went to another store and bought it Compelling joy like yeah you know it sounds right then your excuse me your your free or free market cat. Yeah amazon amazon can do what it wants right. No big deal. That's interesting that liberals would make that argument that amazon a free market private company you know liberals are all about capitalism now so we should cancel books. We don't like amazon. Quote can can do what it wants. Well that's really interesting. Because when we go to screenshot to joe the liberals made the exact opposite argument about the guy in colorado who refused to bake a cake for a gay wedding. Wait wait wait wait. So the same liberals want to impose upon free market companies. Joe who can quote do what they want. Want to tell them what to pay their workers where they can afford it or not. Wanna make him subscribe to a bunch of environmental regulations. That are largely counterproductive. Most of the time they wanna dictate cable news companies like fox and my show and elsewhere. What's allowed on public areas. But but you can do what you want as long as you do. It's what we want. But that's not what i want. You just said. I could do what i want them. A free mark. We were just kidding. We were just kidding and by the way baked cake bake that cake immediately. She goes on quote. Well call this. The colorado bake shop argument. She says which. The supreme court considered in masterpiece vs colorado civil rights commission. Private businesses might have the right not to sell certain things customers. Want by the way. I totally agree with that. It's my cake shop. Dammit i again to liberals. Like danny you being a hypocrite on standby. It's my cake shop. Dammit runs the argument if the proprietor doesn't want to create a cake celebrating a gay wedding or anything else that violates his conscience. Maybe he shouldn't have to folks whether you agree or not agree with that approach. Dan how are you being a hypocrite. You're saying that the cake shop is a private business. Quote should be allowed to do what it wants. No i'm not saying it should be allowed to do whatever it wants. We do have laws cake. Shop can't go baking cakes and assaulting old women with the cakes and slamming them in the face putting them in the hospital. There are certain rules and regulations in a constitutional republic where we preserve the civil liberties of others as well. But what's interesting is we do have a first amendment and the owner of the kate shop had some sincere religious beliefs. I'm not asking you agree with them. I can't really don't care if you agree with them or not. He had a constitutional right to not engage in behavior. He felt violated. His sincerely held. Religious beliefs is amazon. Making that argument on a more dramatic as amazon have some religious problem with banning. Books about transgenderism is because they. They made that argument yet. I haven't heard that and the scale matter. Something i've thought about often which abigail share put down in words far more eloquently than i've ever said on this show. Here's the scale argument which is a good one part three of this. But that argument is an ap. Amazon isn't a neighborhood bakery. Small independent bookstores can and often do claim to be in the business of promoting certain kind of speech. There are christian bookstores and feminist between and forcing such stores to sell books. They don't like would compromise. The owners free speech rights by them to engage in what is arguably a form of compelled speech. They'd be right but amazon operates on a vast scale. Scale is the difference between homicide and genocide a pickpocket and bernie madoff brilliant number one and the colorado bakery case. The owner is claiming an allegiance to a sincerely held religious belief which is a constitutionally protected. Right last time. I checked you still there in the just to preserve an amendment since i left was an updated amendment like subsection one footnote to the first amendment and same old study. Yeah okay the same dot. So i'm just we gotta check. Checks are important on this show. I'm so he he is allowed to believe in these things whether you agree with them or not. Just you're allowed to believe in things we don't agree with two second amazon's making that argument they're just banning the book because they're succumbing to the liberal cancel culture brigade to be amazon is on a far different scale. Share goes on. I didn't take a screen shot of this in the interest of time. I got to wrap it up soon. Because i i've really enjoyed the hell out of this show and i've talked a little too much about stories but she makes the point later in the piece that it's amazon scale. That is the difference here. We have always society that's respected free in competitive markets. We have always had rules and regulations just like the left wants on wages. And all this other stuff we have always had a bipartisan consensus on anticompetitive. And we've had anti the sherman antitrust act you are not allowed to engage in monopolistic anticompetitive behavior. There's even rules against mergers and acquisitions of companies. If their sole intention is to destroy competition in charge some form of a monopoly price share makes the argument later in the piece that amazon's incredible scale sixty percent of of of books or so are sold on amazon that if amazon decides to ban a book just because they want to cancel people. No one is claiming any kind of constitutional right that if amazon bans a book they wipe out the entire market because that author knowing that he won't be sold or she won't be sold on amazon. Joe we'll never get a publishing deal. She makes the case that then. Publishers start to understand that conservative thought is dangerous and may then move invent euphemisms to turn conservative authors down. So you have this. Cascade of horrible where amazon uses it. Scale to shutdown conservative ideas conservative authors and can't get published publishers. then wipe out any conservative book on their on their roster because they can't get published either. That's why i'm doing what. I'm doing now and starting up a conservative economy. Let me show you that fine. I told you get this article. Show biz for one one. Please read this and my show notes today. Proving you again. How this strategy is going to entirely backfire. In the long run the bachelor show biz. Four one one roger friedman tv colon cancer culture sinks bachelor to lowest ratings of the season and second lowest of all time after racism scandal explodes. Tell you the beginning of the show identity politics and cancel culture are going to cannibalize the left. I just showed you the data on left. This endless appeals to racism. How it's blowing up and costing them middle-class support regardless of race and. i made the point repeatedly the cancel culture will eventually implode because they're running out of victims on the right as people are progressively cancelled pun intended. So now because they love it may enjoy it. Member response reward. They've been rewarded by the power of cancelling people. Because they're sick people and they enjoy they enjoy it. That's why they do it. They don't wanna give up when they run out of conservative targets so they then focus on people like the left and the eat their own. Hollywood brand alive. Gosh we had so much more this is really a shame. You wanted a reminder about the announcement about the announcement bank. You thank you joe. That's what i have you therefore you're right. I'm going to have to wrap on this because it's so crazy. Probably quick story. Just buddy story before i get to get this tax last night from a from my brother you know how we mocking the the people. Claiming like ten masks fifteen masks and joe. We'd use the line about the to mask because we call it the deuce you know the to do so my ten year old nephew. My ten year old nephew comes text for my brother comes over school yesterday. And i guess. What are the parents stella by brother that my ten year old nephew who listens to the show and loves it. I feel. I should tell he goes to school with. What are the kids. I guess the bombs this. So what are the kids to school and has to bask side so by ten year old nephew. Is that the due the to. I guess the data. That's my brother. What's the deuce toots are you wearing. The kid is done. I laughed about this all night. Are you wearing the deuce. We crowned the term nationally. I think we have joe the double masters that the deuce just ask you got the dues on all right more on the deuce the while we talking so low my back book and you get ready to shut down yes. I'm still stuck with this apple boycott by last one. We're going back this up different. All right here's my big announcement. My big announcement is about announced. It will be baking next week. So media people pay attention. We'd be making a big announcement next week in our fight to construct a parallel economy that respects free speech for everyone conservatives liberals everyone at matters to me we're going to be making a big announcement next week about that and i want you to pay very close attention because i'm not done you know we had my Experiments with parlor and rumble is just beginning. Be adding a new service coming up soon. And i want you to pay very close attention next week to these announcements. Because i need you in this fight. These fights cost me a lot of time and a lot of money. But as i said i will go. Destitute bankrupt in broke before i let the left. Cancel everyone in the economy without creating an alternative foia and i've got the connections to do it now. Thanks to you so stay tuned next week. All right thanks again for tuning in as you can tell. I love that show. Please go to rumble dot com. Reject youtube cancel culture watch my show on rumble rumble dot com rumble dot com slash bongino rumble dot com slash. Bongino please go there and subscribe. It is free watched the show their reject youtube cancel culture support rumble rumble dot com slash. Bungee thanks folks. i'll see you tomorrow dan bongino.

joe gop Trump Joe america trump dr seuss Gop aids Dan bongino dan bongino new york eric levitz david shore coke
 Are the Democrats doomed in 2022? Politics Weekly Extra

The Guardian UK: Politics Weekly

26:45 min | Last month

Are the Democrats doomed in 2022? Politics Weekly Extra

"Want high-stakes stuff. The believe the hype stuff the criminally good emotional roller coaster can't believe what you're seeing stuff you know the good stuff. Amc plus has it all obsessed with the walking dead dive deeper than ever with the walking dead origins narrated by the cast before the new season premiers on august fifteenth wanna be chilled to the core set sail with the north water. A thrilling arctic. Drama starring jack o'connell and colin farrell plus uncovered gripping true crime content ad free on demand expect the epoch with amc plus sign up today at amc plus dot com mc plus. Only the good stuff the guardian. Welcome to politics weekly extra. I'm jonathan freedland. The twenty twenty two midterms may seem as if they are in the far off distance but one democrat is already thinking about them and worrying about them. The word he uses is scary and that democrat is david shore and he's my guest on the podcast this week. David shaw is a data analyst. Bit of data. Wizard if you ask me. He dives deep into the numbers into the polling and into the voting figures particularly from the november twenty twenty election. And what he's seeing there has him deeply concerned something about him. We should mention is that he is extremely young. He's just thirty and worked for the obama campaign when he was even amazingly just twenty but he has won the ear of senior figures in his party to the point where politico magazine recently wrote that. There is a cult of sure in today's democrats. He's not afraid to speak very candidly about what he sees in the numbers and occasionally that has got him into trouble. So when i caught up with. David shaw my very first question to him was how does somebody like him. Get to be the democrat of the hour. Well all professional stories. I think being at the right place at the right time you know i. I stopped by start working for the obama campaign in two thousand twelve where i bill kind of their election. Forecasting models ended. Nate silver style stuff. I think what's new is that there's really a pretty massive political data industrial complex. I'd say there are probably hundreds of different. People in the democratic party do experiments and build models and all that different stuff and know. I think the main difference is that all of that traditionally has been very private you know. Politics is a zero-sum game. But i think that now people on the field are starting to realize that there's a lot of value to the public understanding the things that parties have been thinking about for a long time. You would twenty years old when you doing data for the obama campaign. He's that freakishly unusual about you or the kind of people doing this. For presidential campaigns that terrifyingly young. I was definitely One of the younger people you know in the campaign headquarters. But i think that is a big problem in politics. Everyone is extremely young. I'd say you know when. I was in the obama campaign. The median age of people in my department. Maybe like twenty five or twenty six. My boss who grief president was twenty eight. Something i like to say is that the context of the us white people with a college degree who are less than thirty. Four years old are only about five percent of the electorate but they're probably a majority of people who actually work on campaigns and. I think that that's a big problem. Just because we're so different than the people that were trying to persuade or the people were trying to turn out. Yeah we we're gonna get into that in a major way because that's a very cool part of your thesis about where the democratic party might be going wrong but just intel in terms of the democratic party. I'm where you fit into it. Just tell us something about your own personal politics. Because i think when people know more about the prescriptions and remedies you're proposing for the democrats. I think they might be surprised to hear about your own personal position on some of the issues so just to give phyllis in on that presidential candidates you've backed in the past and so on basically everyone subcontracts to the same data vendors. Since i've worked with you know campaigns like the sanders campaign the warren campaign. I did a lot of extensive work for progressive and left wing back ken. That's across the country. And you know. I personally identify as socialists. I and i think that this would really surprise a lot of external observers but there are a lot of very leslie people. I'm not the only one who are embedded in the democratic party structure. All it takes is not a very pleasant yield to work in the hours. Very long the pay as low a lot of it can be very unglamorous and the people who do it tend to be people who are really ideologically committed one way or the other nervous. We would just one goodness to start that you saw in the data dot eu worried when others will not worried and i'm thinking particularly of last autumn or november twenty twenty democrats and. Let's face it people all around the world with popping the champagne. Corks in celebration at joe biden's defeat of donald trump. You however were slightly pacing the floor and getting anxious and that's because you saw things in the numbers from twenty twenty the others had not seen. Just talk us through what you've seen in the picture that paints in two thousand sixteen there was really a massive realignment on education lines in the us and where college educated affluent white people have trended toward the left while working class white and non white people have trended toward right and in the context of the us. And now. I think there's truths this written to. This is a really big problem. Because america's electoral institutions are just not designed for coalitions based on urban professionals twin. Just to talk through some numbers to illustrate this point in twenty twelve. Barack obama got fifty two percent of the two party. Vote and hillary clinton got fifty one point. One percent of the two party vote in any other country said maybe britain going from fifty two percent fifty point one percent would not be very big deal but in the context of the us because there were these massive changes in the electoral coalitions of parties. The bias of the electoral college went from being about one point bias in favor of democrats to being three points bias in favor of republicans and twenty twenty it got worse. Joe biden did better than hillary clinton did. He thought fifty two point three percent of the vote. But if he had gotten fifty two percent of the vote he would've lost despite winning by millions and millions of votes And we only have the barest majority in the senate that is still based on representatives from now very red states like ohio or west. Virginia that are almost certainly gonna lose once. A twenty twenty four comes along even perhaps win. Twenty twenty two comes alone. I mean you're looking at midterm elections. You've been saying you pretty scared by what you'll see him. Because as you've said out there you know everyone remembers the joe biden one but your point is he one really by a whisker just point three of a percentage point would have denied him the white house and those underlying numbers. Those shifts meant that it was by a razor-thin victory in the house. And in the senate and that's because groups that people normally think are solid for democrats. Actually and i've seen this in other things you said. E even for example black voters hispanic voters just a bit shifted from democrats from joe biden's democrats to donald trump's republicans. I mean amazing in a way but all of that whittled down that democratic vote. And that's what's making you worried anxious about the midterm elections next year. Yeah just to give some concrete examples if you looked white voters that a college degree who make less than twenty five thousand dollars a year. Brock obama won that group by two points and donald trump and twenty twenty one that group by more than twenty points. If you look at hispanic voters which were really big part of the story in two thousand twenty we we sell something like nine percent some almost one. In ten hispanic voters switched from clinton to trump. and if you look county-by-county your state by state there are counties in south. Texas voted for democrats not even narrowly but for thy forty or fifty points for over a hundred years. Donald trump either one or narrowly lost those guys. You know in. Florida florida's one of the only states to be more republican in two thousand twenty then Twenty sixteen by size while margin exactly because there was a fourteen point. Swing among hispanics against us in twenty twenty. We ran the most popular person party. Whose last name wasn't allama against literally the most unpopular person ever run for office and we still only want by zero point three percent and that really shows what we're up against if we don't make changes to our structural foolish just wanted to dive deeper into this shift among black and hispanic voters because i think that's the thing that would surprise people. I mean the idea that donald trump who even he's good friends would say admit was often a crude and bigoted politician towards ethnic minorities. The idea that he actually increased his vote with say hispanic voters and even less dramatically with black american voters. After four years of everything he said would just have people's head-spinning so explain to us how that as happened in your view. What what accounts for you know. Yes the democrats still overall one more black voters more. Latino voters hispanic voters in the republicans. Did but there was a swing towards the republicans among those groups. What explains it from your knowledge of the numbers. I i think the important thing is to look at ideology in the us. We measure this by asking people if they identify its liberal moderate or conservative. And you know what's fascinating about that. Is that even though partisanship varies quite a bit by race ideology does not vary by race. Roughly the same percentage is black hispanic and white voters identified as liberal moderate or conservative twenty percent liberal forty percent moderate forty percent conservative but partisanship differs quite a bit and the only way. Mathematically that works out is that you know. Among white voters ideology is very correlated with partisanship democrats about ninety percent of white liberals and republicans get about eighty percent of white conservatives but among nonwhite voters historically democrats have one non white conservatives by very large margins and if you look at the twenty sixteen versus twenty twenty data in two thousand sixteen hillary clinton one hispanic conservatives by twenty points and in twenty twenty donald trump won them by twenty points and that that's the whole difference that non white conservatives are starting to vote more like white conservatives. What accounts for that shift. I get the idea that if people are conservative in a way make sense the more conservative party but views they didn't they stuck with the democrats. Have the democrats done something. Different in recent years has made black or hispanic conservatives. Think why am i continuing to democrat. It makes more sense given that. I am a conservative to vote. Republican is it therefore or was it something. Republicans who are doing that made themselves more attractive to the black or latino conservatives. There's really been a change. In the way that the democratic party talks and the way the democratic party france because as college educated white people have become a larger share of the party. They haven't just increased their numbers. There is a lot of ways in which college educated people have a lot of disproportionate power. They donate higher rate. They consume more political information. They're more likely to run for office. They're more likely to be staff in political campaigns. And i think that you know what we've really seen is that the democratic party is really transformed itself from a coalition of moderate working class white voters and working class non white voters and college educated liberals to instead being a more straightforwardly ideological party and that has caused more polarization on ideological lines. Which is something of a of a loser given that only twenty percent of the population identifies as liberal Just to give some concrete numbers there when we surveyed thousands of santa voters after the election. The single biggest predictor of switching from clinton's trump was attitudes toward crime in attitudes toward policing. And i think that really highlights that there are a lot of these very hot button social issues that kind of define how people ideologically identify culturally working class white people and working class non white people have a lot more in common with each other than they do with educated white liberals. Feel as if we tiptoeing around one particular slogan here which is fund police which many of the democrats you'll speaking about the white college educated left wing democrats embrace and what was leeson black college educated liberal democrats as well. I'm getting from what you're saying that a phrase like that is a massive turn off to small c conservatives. Both white and black and hispanic. How important is that one phrase. I don't want to single out one single phrase de-fund. The police is extremely unpopular. It is something that i think played a big role in in the backlash. That was on twenty twenty but i think that defunding the police floating to the top of the narrative of in being something that was embraced publicly by a lot of large mainstream progressive. Organizations is a symptom of a much bigger problem of working class white voters and working class. Non white voters not actually having a voice in the party. The way to get ahead in the democratic party has really changed a lot in the old days you go back to one thousand nine hundred eighty s. There used to be a lot. More swing voters joe biden in one thousand nine hundred four when he ran for senate he got sixty percent of the vote on the same day that in his state that ronald reagan got sixty percent of the vote. That means nearly half of the state voted for joe biden and for ronald reagan. And you know the way that you got ahead now is less figuring out how to give speeches at union halls in much more. How do you raise a lot of online money. And then the other piece is getting liberal journalists and online people on twitter to the excited about you. The purpose of public facing communication should be to persuade people. But i think right now. No one in the democratic party is really approaching communication. That way you'll limited in how much you can say about this. I think you signed an nda about it. You were let go from the previous employer. Also data analysis company because during the high of the summer unrest in twenty twenty. You tweeted that can have a political cost on democrats when there is upheaval. That you referred to the precedent of richard nixon and some of the in one thousand nine hundred eighty eight that trouble and how nonviolent protest has a very different affect and can have a different political impact. Couldn't you book. What can you tell us about that episode. Yeah absolutely it was very controversial. And i think it does. Highlight that very few people either voters or liberals like actually believe that. There's anything offensive about saying that. Non violent protests are effective or protests aren't but in the progressive movement. You're talking about the most left wing point one percent of the population. It's something that can really be quite controversial. You know. I think in the party A lot of people think that the problem with democrats is that we're ads that we care too much about policy that we talked too much about issues that we just need a forcefully communicate our values you know but the problem is that swing. Voters don't share our values if they did they would already be liberals are values are actually alien and changed. The only reason people ever voted for us. is because of issues in the concrete things that we've been able to provide them. And if we switch to a world where instead of providing people concrete things and representing people and meeting people where they are to instead of being the id of you know the intelligentsia it will slip the country in the wrong way. And we've we won't have any power you've given us a whole lot of diagnosis there. What's gone wrong. Let's shift onto remedy. What can democrats practically do. And i mean in a big long term structural. I'm thinking there are elections in fourteen or fifteen months for the house and for the senate. What can they do to close that gap. I like to say that you know. The median voter in the united states. Fifty years old doesn't have a college degree and that's just the fact that should be stamped on. Everyone's foreheads in every single strategic decision that we make if you look at you know this group of voters that we need to win. They largely agree with democrats on a whole host though. Not all of the democrats economic priorities but they disagree on a lot of different social issues. I think that that's attention that nobody wants to say forthrightly. But it means that. If we're gonna win we have to focus our agenda in focused message on the parts that they agree with us on which are primarily economic popular issues and keep the conversation away from things. That are very polarizing. If you look at voters who agreed with us on healthcare and disagreed with us on immigration. Barack obama won those voters. He got sixty percent of those voters. In hillary clinton got forty percent of those voters in that switch was the entire election and we need to be really mindful and calculated strategic about what we choose to talk about the language which to see us so that we can appeal to these people who've turned away from us. Who does the talking. I've seen you said elsewhere that democrats should adopt for house and senate races. Maybe even national races more black candidates may be more hispanic candidates because not because of reasons of diversity or inclusion but because in your words they are frankly just less weird than your average white democrat potential candidate to. Just tell us what you meant by that. Yeah i think the democratic party is very lucky that we have a bunch of economically progressive culturally moderate people in our party. You know we have a bunch of people who believe in god a bunch of people who have normal middle class values but most of them are non way and you know. I think that in the party there. Was this traditional idea that you can't run a black end in the south because voters would be racist that we just had a great natural experiment georgia to candidates finding the exact same time often or not and worn not not just did better than ossoff but actually did better in wetter areas. The difference was largest in white areas. He won over swing voters and did better with working class. Non white voters. You know it's better to have a religious lack pastor in running in the deep south than it is to have a nerdy thirty-three-year-old liberal white person because all of these cultural values are are more important now than traditional racing. The fires as we move towards. I want to. I'm curious. this notion of people in politics tend to be weird. And i get that. Because they're obsessed with politics and they do it all the time. Why would they be a democrat only problem. Surely republicans have activists and candidates and journalists and policy thinkers who are just as out of touch with the median voter. And i'm just wondering why you know. Republicans who are drawn. Say to you marjorie taylor. Green one of the more extreme figures in the republican party. Why does that not seem to cause as much damage to republicans in terms of being out of step the phenomenon you've been describing on the left which puts democrats out of step out of sync with average americans. There's two points here. I think the first is that the republican party has engineered a coalition where they can win a trifecta with forty eight percent of the vote and democrats are in a situation where we need fifty two percent of the vote and so that just means that we just have less latitude to do on popular things than they do. And i think it's really unfair. You can think about things as you have like an unpopularity budget. How many things you can do until you lose the election and there is just much larger than ours because the way. Our electoral system works in the coalition choices that they've made so that's the first one but i'd say the second point is that if you look at who's overrepresented you know it's not ideological extremists. I mean it is but it's really super educated. People run basically all institutions. You know for better or for worse and so that means that if you look at the elite of the republican party i think it does harm them in the people who work in the republican party care much more about say lowering taxes or taking away people's health care. And if you look you know one of the reasons i think donald trump loss like if you look at his approval ratings. His lowest point was when he tried to repeal obamacare or when he cut taxes on the wealthy. And so you know. I think it is. It is a challenge for them. To and i think donald trump's power was the he was able to kind of wipe away this previous republican consultant class. And just do the obvious thing. A- promising not to cut social security and medicare and they've there'll be people listening to this who will be thinking. Yeah i get what you're saying about american politics but it really resonates with for example where. I'm sitting the politics of britain. So much of what you said about how political parties end up out of step with electrodes and particularly how this can be a problem afflicting the left. How much have you noticed that the patterns and trends you've spotted in the data of american politics are going on around the world. I think these trends are happening. Basically everywhere but i think the us and britain are really different in that. We have first past the post. You know minority -tarian electoral system. I think this is really under underappreciated. Point in british politics. Which is you know. The bias of the current british constituency math toward brexit is actually larger than the pro-trump bias of the electoral college. You know it is not possible to consistently hold power and be able to pass laws in less we roll back a decent chunk of this education polarization and kind of return to the basis that we had ten years ago. It's gripping stuff. David really is now on the podcast. We do like to ask our guests a what else question and this week. I know we all have the resignation of andrew cuomo in mind as governor of new york. Finally resigning this week. After an investigation concluded he had sexually harassed eleven women charges which he denies. So what impact do you think that will have and scandal in general because there's plenty of it about what impact will that have if any on midterm voters when they come to cast their ballots next year. Well you know. Obviously what happens in new york doesn't affect the rest of the country but politics is still about people know less and less every single year but there is a very close recall election happening in california right now that you know was triggered by gavin newsom flouting covert regulations. And so you know. I think that there's a lot of room for randomness in the system. We might have a right wing talk show. Host is the governor of california a state where joe biden got more than sixty percent of the vote. We lost the north carolina senate race in twenty twenty because the democratic candidate. They are cal. Cunningham sent some explicit text messages to someone who is not his wife. And you know. I've looked at the data and i'm pretty convinced that had that not happened we would have won that race in politics would have been very different would had fifty one seats instead of fifty and that we would be looking at totally different legislative environment. So all of this stuff is very important. The shoe head of data science of open labs. Thanks so much for coming on politics. Weekly extra and for joining me on the podcast. Thank you and that is all from me this week. Anyone wanting to hear more about what's happening with andrew. Cuomo today in spoke to the guardians. Ed pilkington this week about the governor's life this last year to search for today in focus and make sure to listen back to wednesday's episode of uk politics weekly which is a special profile on the labour. Party's deputy leader angela. Rain for the next two weeks. We'll be delving into the archives. Pick two of our many favourite episodes from the last few months. Do make sure to listen to those. And please keep sending us any questions or comments or suggestions for things you'd like us to cover or about the state of us politics in general so we can pick those up after the summer break. You can send us an email at podcast at the guardian dot com. Or you can tweet me directly on twitter. My handle the is at freeland. But for now i say goodbye. The producer is esther poker jenny. And i'm jonathan freedland. Please stay safe out there. And thanks as always listening for more great podcasts from the guardian. Just go to the guardian dot com slash. Podcasts innovation resilience agility. It's how michigan businesses worked together and continue to build the future our expertise talented workforce and collaborative environment are making a difference. Now and shaping the future. Join us and make your mark where it matters. Visit michigan business dot org slash radio to put your plans in motion. That's michigan business dot org slash radio.

democratic party donald trump joe biden Barack obama David shaw hillary clinton jonathan freedland united states david shore politico magazine senate jack o'connell allama
The Larry Elder Show 07-16-21 Hr 2 FRIDAYa

The Larry Elder Show

37:12 min | 2 months ago

The Larry Elder Show 07-16-21 Hr 2 FRIDAYa

"Is podcast is a production of the salem podcast network for more podcast like this from courageous voices of conservative reason visit salem podcast network dot com. His journey began at the age. That we'd love. He was introduced the hard work faith and family values however the struggling he wandered down the path of least resistance finding himself jail twice and with a child he had to fight the race. By the grace of god he attended an evangelical church and found that there was a better way. Jackson is my hero. He discovered that. Despite america's flaws god used our founding fathers to create our constitution. It's divided exceptional. Nature is undeniable. Fake stuff about carl jackson while the seed from south central as saving california three thinker from florida is in accent. Is the reason i was born. It's the larry elder show with special guest. Carl jackson who crowdgate district. Who i so. Here's some exciting news for you by the way. This is carl jackson. The number to call in to the larry elder show is triple eight. Nine seven one seven two four three and we are coming to you live from the relieffactor dot com studio but this is Breaking on daily caller apparently Jinping sake now says the people should be ban on all social media if they are banned from one platform and of course she revealed just the other day that the white house it has been consulting with facebook to flag misinformation. And the problem with that. Before i continue onto the new negro vote and why the left are allowing illegal immigrants. That come across the border. I gotta give you some numbers. The damage that trump did are the increases that he made in the latino community. So this is what they're really fearful of so it's all hands on deck but you have this lady jump asaki. Obviously she's a press secretary. She's the this is what the white house is doing behind the scenes. But now you have that okay. Let's go ahead props. I want you guys to hear this audio since i'm on this rant right now. It's a little. Add forgive me. But i saw this break in. And i'm like you gotta be kidding. These people are going. Full cuba dictatorship. This it begins with these social media platforms and those engagements typically happen through members of our senior staff but also members of our covert nineteen team Given as dr murph murphy Conveyed a this is a big issue of misinformation specifically on the pandemic in terms of actions. Alex set we have taken or working to take. I should say from the federal government We've increased disinformation research and tracking within the surgeon. General's office were flagging problematic posts. Four facebook That spread disinformation. Okay so they're tracking pop Problematic information. I wish they were tracking it back in the fall or winter whenever that was when camera harris. Common-law how comma harris was saying that. Hey you know. Yeah i if the cdc or faouzi tells me to take the vaccine. I'm gonna take it but not if trump does so these hypocrites democrats have no problem with the vaccine now that they're in charge but when trump was in charge there's something wrong with the vaccine but now they're perfect because now democrats are in charge kudos to trump operation warp speed. Regardless of how you feel about the vaccine this would not have been accomplish without trump. We'll get into that a little later. but But this is what they're doing now. These big social media these big tech firms working with the democrat party to shut conservative down to shut republicans down to shut free speech down to shut open debate down. Talk about banana republic. This is getting out of hand and these people were just what they're just. They're just bold about now. These are leftists. He's earned liberals. These aren't your typical. You know your grandpappy democrats. These are straight up leftist. These are straight up communist. These are people that want to take over that. Want to run your life that wants to have full. Say over your life. Which is why i believe. They're bringing back. The mask mandate to in los angeles. But we'll get to that another day but here's what they're afraid of. You know why they're so hesitant to speak about cuba. Besides the fact that if people start paying attention and reading up on communism and communist dictatorships they'll find out. Wait a minute A lot of things are saying things. Democrats say democrat leadership anyway. But you have this story for npr npr. Latino voters are leaving the democratic party. Latino voters are leaving the democratic party so what does that mean open borders. They know what they're doing folks. They know exactly what they're doing latino people. I'm warning you don't become the new negro boat. Sadly meyer ethnicity. We vote in the ninety percents. How range regardless of what happens regardless. I had a caller on the screen yesterday. Unfortunately he didn't stick with me. I wanted to talk with them but he black man. I saw that much. Said he'd never vote republican. I didn't see anything about policy on the screen and see anything about policy pretty amazing. So latino voters are leaving the democratic party props. npr surprised. i'm saying that. The new information about the twenty twenty election reveals a growing shift among latino voters away from the democratic party lulu garcia navarro talks with open labs research and developer rnd researcher david shore. About it so just bear with me because i'm going to have to ask the question she asked. And then i'm just going to read some of his answers because it is extremely insightful. So new data from the twenty twenty election shows a big swing in one voting group away from the democratic party led tinos made a significant rightward. Turn and partisans of both parties are looking hard at. Why one of them is this gentleman. David shore he is the head again of the open labs. rnd which is a progressive nonprofit. Now i gotta tell you guys this. Because i live in orlando florida. This did make major headline but the biden administration right here locally and statewide. We knew early on they were having big problems with latinos and it wasn't just about trump reaching out although the trump campaign did an amazing job of reaching out to latinos but the biden administration were completely negligent with their own volunteers and staffers here so much. So that new started breaking locally of how bad they were being treated under biden's campaign so latinos eighty working for biden. Whether it'd be for pay or voluntarily there were. There was enough information going around that they were extremely unhappy with the campaign and how they were being treated taken for granted requests. And you know all this stuff not being answered so this doesn't surprise me but perhaps some of you guys are here for the first time in this also explains why the democrat party are go. Go go with everything open borders. You know censorship. they can't win. This is the thing we talk about. Just the the ballots. The gentleman called in. They can't win without cheating. They can't win based on their ideas. Their ideas are hey. You work hard. I'll take more your money. Their ideas are hey. The constitution sucks even though we see people were their lives to come here all the time and we never leave. Their ideas are free speech. What's that immigration. Open borders military bunch of racist white guys defending us defending our freedom energy. Oh let's go electric. Even we have to use coal and even though cars or batteries in electric cars do far more damage to the environment than a than a car that runs on on a combustion engine. This is who they are. they don't care about truth. The left does not care about truth. They care about power. So trump had a strategy that take people away from them coalitions away from him and he succeeded this lady. Garcia navarro from npr. Asked this gentleman sure so after the election there was this narrative that the latino vote swung right because of cubans in florida or mexican americans in south texas. But what did you find out when you looked precinct by precinct. Enough time before the break. But we're going to dive into the numbers because it is impressive. What the trump campaign was able to do. And it's why we have open borders now. In my opinion this is carl jackson. In for larry larryelder. We'll be back in a few larry elder here again with a message for anyone struggling with pain like i struggled with for years. And of course i want. You didn't know about relief. Factor the one hundred percent. Drug-free supplement that tens of thousands or now taking every day. Obviously i'm taking it every day. Because i like being out of pain but i know you may be skeptical just like i was but then i kept hearing about all the people who are no longer in pain so i decided to give it a try in fact. Listen to genesis story. How skeptical at first but because of the pain. That i was having when i would substitute teach and have to climb stairs. I have lower back hit and even knee pain and after about three weeks i found that i could climb stairs pain-free but it wasn't only pain-free i could do it step over step with out holding on the railing. I'm really happy. It makes me feel like i'm young again. That's relieffactor dot com or call. Eight hundred five hundred eighty three eighty four eight hundred five hundred eighty three eighty four. Now carl jackson for the sage on the larry elder show. Welcome back to the relief factor dot com studio the number to call and triple eight nine seven one seven two four three go through a few of these numbers and now take some of your calls because i see the call screen or The call screen is light and up. Here okay so this is when when this gentleman from what is the name of his group. Again from open labs are indeed was ask His name is david shore from open. Labs are indeed when he was asked by a garcia Lulu garcia navarro of Of npr so after the election there was this narrative that the latino vote right because of cubans in florida or mexican americans in south texas. We all heard that right But she asked him. But what did you find when you looked precinct by precinct. This is where it gets interesting so precinct by precinct. This is the gentleman's answer david chores answer. You know what we really found. Was that even. Though there were particularly market shifts in south texas there were thirty points. Wings in many counties there were counties that had voted for democrats solidly in in the seventy to eighty percent range since the eighteen nineties and trump. Either one so listen to that. Listen to those there were there were counties. That had solidly voted. Democrats latino counties predominantly latino counties that have predominantly voted democrats seventy to eighty percent for over a hundred years and yet trump either one or came very close to winning and in south florida. He says Generally and florida in general there was something like thirteen to fourteen percent swing. So that said basically everywhere were. There were large concentrations of hispanic voters. There were large swings in the six to nine percent range. Everywhere with latinos trump did extremely well with the latino community. So now you understand why. They're bringing in the new. The new negro vote. We need more these. Doggone latinos are starting to love freedom. They're starting to see what we're doing. Let's usher and some other people that we can enslave and what we'll do as democrats is just how our voters that republicans are the racist and all of our little cronies and media and cnn and msnbc won't pay attention to the border and so therefore we can. Just keep assuring these people in new votes new votes new votes. that's how we'll defeat. Republicans in twenty twenty four because these states georgia arizona are going to reforming their election law and returning them to pre cova conditions and strengthening them to some degree. So this is how we can do it. These are some evil sake. People that some democrats are voting for. Let me go to the lines. Real quick we have bob on Bobbing california bob. You've got the mike kyle. Thank you You know your call. Screener and i told him that when when is america. Why is america death to truth. You know i. It's only gonna go on for so long. Keep digging holes. And if america doesn't start listening to truth we're gonna have some big big problems getting out and you know one last thing you'd mentioned that you know for there's the crack of the minority but the bigger responsibility lies on the dealer and that's the democratic party masked man. That's a good call. I'm still line. Pretend like i said all right. I i love that. I love that. The crack dealer is the democrat party. The crack dealer is the democrat party. That's some good stuff. You guys record their pretend. Like i said that was good. That was good. Good stuff all right. Let's go on further garcia navarro of npr s. So when you spend time excuse me asking david shore talking. T- these folks and again david shore. This is a progressive organization that he runs of records of nonprofit. She asked so when you spend time talking to these folks. What did they tell you. was behind that i mean. Was it this sort of racial justice. Issues that the defunding police thing. Just not a popular message. for them. Oh you know what. I gotta go back. I gotta go back. Because he did say he did say that. Trump's songs You know counties and precincts six to nine percent everywhere And he said even places like bronx new york to arizona to massachusetts to california and he said one of the biggest predictors of the switching from from voting for clinton in two thousand sixteen to voting for trump. We're the attitudes towards crime and towards policing and that's when navarro asked a question so all right so you're saying this issue of racial justice this issue impacted this the the the talk of defunding. The police switch right. I mean it it it it it. It upset enough. Latinos were a man. We'd like safety. We like safety. Here's here's what he had to to say. I think that in the last four years is the cloud of college. Educated white people in the democratic party has increased. The democratic party brand has increasingly been associated with liberalism in a way that it might not have been before. And i think there's a lot of micro stories there and this is interesting. He says. I think that you know bear with me. I'm i'm reading this because it's just but it's it's so much to read here but it's extreme it. It's a it's fascinating it's a look into. How trump's siphoned off latino voters and he says. I think that if you look at define the police. That's a highly ideological issue where liberals are on one end and conservatives are on the other but see here's what you have to understand. He goes on to say listen. We have these white liberals that have come in right. he's college. Educated white liberals so democrats are gaining more college educated liberal than to their party. But the problem is they still have they would try to mash with and and speak the right words to conservative blacks and conservative latinos. So you have these mixed messages of sorts. They're trying to make everybody happy. They just couldn't do it so The the things where they found some commonality were issues like increasing the minimum wage getting people healthcare but when it came to the issue of safety when it came to the issue of defunding the police latinos said. We want safety man. Are you crazy. We want safety. This is carl jackson for larry elder. By the way you can follow me on facebook. Carl jackson radio on facebook twitter at carl jackson show or checkout my website in my latest columns carl jackson show Dot com and. I mean this is just really fascinating to me. And we'll finish up with this on the other side. But i just want you to know. This is what the left is doing whether it censorship whether it's using people strictly for power and by the way baltimore schools. Like i mentioned one you know. Very few forty-one percent of students with a one point. Oh grade point average will talk about that as well. we'll be back in a few. This is carl infra. Larryelder portions of the larry elder show are brought to you in part by job creators network. The tunnel to towers foundation helps us keep our commitment to never forget larry elder here this year. The foundation is honoring goldstar and fall. In first responder families with young children and catastrophically injured veterans and first responders with two hundred mortgage free homes chairman and ceo frank ciller is paying tribute to the fallen by walking from the pentagon to shanksville and on the ground zero more than five hundred miles through six states in forty two days month of august through nine eleven towers of light to shine at the pentagon and shanksville memorials in remembrance. The names of those we lost to nine eleven related illnesses are being read aloud at a ceremony on september the twelfth and on veterans day the names of all we lost in the war on terror will also be said out loud. Do good and help. America to never forget. Donate eleven dollars a month to tunnels two towers at t to t dot org. That's t the number two t. Dot org he the number two t. Dot org well. I make a thanks for having me a little bit of context here when i was in office in. Kirsten nielsen's job at her desk. I'd get to work around six thirty in the morning and there'd be my intelligence book sitting on my desk the pdb and also the apprehension numbers from the day before. And i look at every morning. The first thing i'd look at i probably got too close to the problem and my staff will tell you if it was under one thousand apprehensions the day before. That was a relatively good number. And if it was about one thousand relatively bad number and i was going to be in a bad mood the whole day on tuesday there were four thousand apprehensions. I know that a thousand overwhelms assistant. I cannot begin to imagine what four thousand a day looks like so we are truly in a crisis. Okay that is jay johnson. That's the former department homeland security secretary under barack obama and that was back in april of two thousand nineteen. So now we're talking about he. He was like over. A thousand is a bad day so thirty thousand month. Approximately and now under the biden administration just breaking records while the media remained silent. One hundred eighty eight thousand illegal crossings in one month over six times. The number that jay. Johnson said he would be concerned about. This is a stunning. Let me go to the lines. Real quick we have shannon in north carolina. Shannon you've got the mic over tall. Hey how's it going let's see As far as Biden is concerned He doesn't want The cubans here. Because i think i might have feared this out. Didn't catch all the show but he didn't want to cubans because they will be able to tell people what communism does and they will vote republican and Let's see the other issue I'm trying to remember i. I'm desktop to the grocery store. Let's see Well you're you're gone. Blank are no no no. You're fine. you're absolutely right a did cover that you're you're absolutely right. I mean they the cuban the. I'm sorry the cuban people would be able to share the harshness and the horrors of communism. And that's exactly why the democrats don't want them here. There's no if answer buts about it. I mean these people can if biden wanted to help the cuban people and just provide access as far as internet access is concerned. They could do that. I've heard guantanamo bay there. They could make it happen and that would be a big help so that the people there are informed. The people there know what's going on. No you know what to expect. And so they biden administration. They're letting at the left is the one thing about this election. The left is letting us know exactly who they are. We're seeing clarity on every issue. Do they care about human suffering in cuba. No do they care about human suffering on the southern border no again. The number of of bodies remains have been found. You know have been exceeding numbers in in several years past. They don't care about these people they care about Power garcia navarro goes on to acid. Just wanna finish this up. Because i just think the numbers are pretty amazing garcia navarro of npr goes on a to ask this gentleman David shore of the open. Labs are indeed progressive nonprofit group So the logic. I guess follows the talking about highly. Partisan issues like immigration for example is in a winning formula. In fact most hispanics wouldn't necessarily put immigration at the top of their list of priorities for reform. Why then is the democrat party trying so hard to push these issues and then this gentleman shore david shore goes on to say There's been a really big change. In how democrats. Talk that you know. Democrats historically were seen as this kind of coalition party You know we have this broad. Mix and here he goes. This is where he explains that we have this broad mix of conservative black and hispanic voters and we have white liberals we have the working class white people and you know we try to find language that makes everybody happy but i think with the rise of online donations with the rise of social media. This has really changed. The incentive structure how democratic politicians get ahead. This is why people like can have so much power within the democrat party because she has so much poll on social media and the left knows it. She had donors behind it. They know it so she can force the party left. And that's exactly what's happening this guy cau- but it's scaring some people away all right when we get back. This is carl jackson for larry elder. We'll talk about mass mandate in los angeles will back in a few. Carl jackson will be back on. The larry elder show. Now here's special. Guest carl jackson on the larry elder show. I welcome back to larry elder show. I do want to go to the mass issue mask mandate is being reissued in los angeles california and So anyway i wanna talk about that but there was just one more part of this. I thought i should cover because you guys have to understand how close The election was despite everything that transpired. Basically this gentleman goes on to say. Joe biden got about fifty two point three percent of the vote and he if he got fifty two percent of the vote he would've lost and that's the sea change of american politics because what he said trump was able to do is just siphon off. A coalition of latino voters based on specific issues Where you know. The democrat party was in trouble and so regardless of what you believe about the election. It was berry berry berry wire thin election. Democrats are well aware this democrats say democrats. I'm talking about politicians so anyway. All right let's go to your calls we've got steep. Let's go to the lines. We've got stephen in houston stephen. You've got the mic. Thank you very much like to thank you and your call screener for that through the wall with minimal. id and With all the artists that are going on especially in arizona and georgia. They're finding some incredible fraud that people voting xerox votes miscounted votes. People out of state. So this may be an oxymoronic question or just mainly moronic but what do you think. Demographics is for the fraudulent votes. What do i believe. The demographic is for the fraudulent vote. I'll tell you what i'm going to do. I'm going to wait for the investigation to be completed. And then i'll i'll answer that question and right now i'm concerned about the numbers and if i'm going to You know like. I said. I was ghetto fabulous. But i'm not going to jump the gun. But what i will say is that you know you go to. Am greatness you can see one of their headlines. Arizona audit finds massive irregularities including more than seventy four thousand mellon ballots counted. Then mailed out. So i'll just say this our weight and get the rest of the information But this is looking promising because listen. There's there's no. There's no way to change the election. There's no way to turn this puppy around There's no mechanism for that. But it is important that we get our elections right. Everybody should want and everyone deserves. Every american deserves of You know fair elections free and fair elections. And and so that's what we're hoping for so this stuff does need to get corrected. We need to know what to do the next time around. I appreciate the call We've got nancy in pittsburgh nancy. You've got the. Mike are far all over so grateful to talk to you. Thank you for filling in for larry. I work in In omni right outside of pittsburgh and thirty years. And i just noticed three days ago. They took over a building and put the big sign. It says outreach center and there's four flags on it and one is black lives matter one. Lgbtq the other one is red and blue stripes. Foltz stripe that i. It's not an american flag. Of course you know what it is different colors and it has a pyramid and the middle. Okay i'm not. I'm not familiar with that. But if i'm not mistaken the one that you described what the different colors and the stripes and you know for you and the listening audience. Correct me if i'm wrong but i believe that is a june eighteenth flag And this is why. I thought this would be so divisive and destructive and There you go. You have gullible. Republicans that went along with this and are complicit now and the division of people. It was an asinine idea to make june eighteenth and a holiday. It makes absolutely no sense to try to take people black people back to victim all the time. I'm sorry to hear that. Unfortunately it sounds like you have just spotted A place full of social justice warriors People that are that are uninformed and and and sadly but this is. This is what the left is looking to do. I mean if you rent if if you if you place or you hold the american flag some people believe some people believe on the left that if you put up the american flag or if few light the american flag. It's not that you're patriotic. It's set your racist because that flag is symbolic of systemic racism. Like you know some of these olympic Athletes have been basically you know Depicting and not standing for anthem. And all this kind of nonsense. Nothing could be further from the truth. I wish these people. I literally wish we could do a citizen swap with all these people. Send them the cuba and bring a cuban out here to america. Let them see what it's like. It's pretty amazing. All right this mask mandate back on in los angeles this Prompts to the ap props the forgotten man. a los angeles county will again require mass. Be worn indoors in the nation's largest county even by those vaccinated against the corona virus The university of california system also said thursday that students and staff must be inoculated against the disease to return to campuses. Whatever the left can do to re- to gain power. Whatever the left can do to divide us. That's what they'll do. That's exactly what's happening with. This mask. mandate the numbers. Do not warrant the actions that this doctor monty davis. This public health officer is taking in the city of los angeles. I'll tell you what this is really about on the other side. Crawl jackson infra larryelder. We'll be back in a few the move now. here's special. Guest carl jackson on the larry elder show. Welcome back to the larry elder. Show the number to call in. Triple eight nine seven one. Seven two four three. We're coming to you. Live from the relieffactor dot com studio again. That number triple eight nine. Seven one seven two four three. Okay i wanna talk about these This mask mandate. That's currently happening or that's going to be happening. When is that. When does that start william disaster. Start this this evening for you guys. Okay so you guys. If you're like you los angelenos you have until eleven fifty nine. I believe a saturday to go ahead and party like a rockstar without the mask. And then after that it's completely over this mask mandate is complete nonsense As soon right here in the city of orlando because we have a social justice mayor by the name. Mary jerry demings. He is the husband. Val demings who is ironically very silence on the issue of cuba and she has entered the race to run for senate against senator marco rubio. I haven't heard anything from her when it comes to cuba. Maybe i need to look. Check your twitter something but locally or i haven't heard a peep from val demings when it comes to the people for the people that are being beat and tortured and and and i'm sure murdered and in some cases while the cuban dictatorship cracks down on these freedom lovers these freedom fighters in cuba. I haven't heard a peep from val demings anyway. Returning to this mass mandate so los angeles county will again require mask be warm Indoors in the nation's largest county again even by those that are vaccinated now the announcements. This is the ap. So you know you gotta read left wing stuff to the mountains. Come amid an increase they say a sharp increase but that's a joke Increase in virus cases. Many of them the highly transmissible delta variant that has proliferated since california fully reopened. Its economy on june fifteenth and did away with capacity limits and social distancing. So let me ask the people of los angeles when you were locked down. They kept you locked down. Because cases to occur cases continued to happen. This is this this is the fallacy about this stuff. This is the lie about this first off. I just recovered from the delta variant Myself just recently a few weeks ago. And i don't know that it was any different than any other variant based upon the symptoms that i had in all i did i listen to dennis. Prager by the grace of god. A lot of doctors are out here aren't aren't prescribing a ivermectin but thank god. My wife and i found someone who was both of us. Got it pratt. And his own Ivermectin as i'm not recommending anything and i'm telling you i'm telling you once i began that process within a matter of hours i felt better. It took me probably two weeks to recover from the tiredness weakness but the major symptoms were gone within hours with basic medication. This is an absolute joke. This is about control. Crawl jackson for larryelder. we'll be back in a few.

carl jackson David shore democratic party biden administration democrat party npr garcia navarro florida trump south texas larry elder cuba dr murph murphy america shanksville faouzi biden facebook
Free speech, safety, and the letter

The Ezra Klein Show

1:29:04 hr | 1 year ago

Free speech, safety, and the letter

"I think the is legitimate interest in feeling safe from legitimate interest in free speech on I do think about Wason, which was to be in conflict, and we shouldn't sugarcoat around that and I think in those cases, the only principal solution is to cyber free speech. Hello and welcome BS or clench up on the VOX media podcast network. So I'm glad to be glad you're here, but I'm glad to be here this week. In particular, because podcasts are often, I find a better place to work out a complicated topic than other spaces are. last week. Harper's magazine released an open letter on justice and open debate. It signed by a huge number of people well over hundred, including some very big names like shaky rallying. Dome, Chomsky David Brooks It's a very glittering group of pretty well known writers on also includes my colleague Matthew, Yglesias and my co host on the weeds and. I've complicated feelings on the letter because I actually agree with Mazda wedges literally says. And I think that a lot of the signatories are weaponising values and an approach to intellectual culture debate that I hold, and I don't think they do, and so my frustration is not really with the letter as taxed, but it is with the letter as a political document is jockeying document which I think is being used form was particularly being used for on twitter, so tweeted out. Quickly and twitter was not the right place to have this conversation that debate about free speech often debates about power, and there's a lot of power in holding the position of free speech defender I completely believe that statement, but because Madison, the letter it got taken as tweet of him and credit, a weird thing which was very frustrating. So, want have a conversation about this, but I don't want to have it in a way where people think I'm talking about. My colleague and one of my absolute oldest rents. So I, asked you to come on the show and also somebody I have great respect for his scientists Tom. He's been on the show a couple times four. He's a columnist at the Atlantic and one thing that I think is part of the interesting about him. This moment addition to being a part of the letter. He has founded a new organization called persuasion, which is I think it was actually a couple of days before the letter that he did it, but I would say it is best explained as an online journal newsletter. Group social community meant to defend the ideas of the letter. Letter in particular defend a kind of open, minded traditional liberalism that he and some of his Co founder is that include very well-known People John Height and Francis Fukuyama both of whom have been on the show feel is is under siege so y'all show on because we agree on a lot, we also emphasize different things in a way that I think is useful, but also I felt like we could have this conversation and tangible way, and about the ideas behind it then I could with some other folks, so as always. My email is show at box, dot com, but here is Yasha monk. Yes among look back to the podcast. Thank you so much back on. I think you've been here now. This is the third time we've done this I believe it's a full faster. That's now. I know I did yours once. I think you've only done this one twice. Maybe twice. We've done a lot of podcast. Forecast back and forth humphries tool. This is my full time on. That I may be wrong. I'm so. Of Your podcast have a running town somewhere. You're in your the Pantheon that they're very few four-time four time guests, but but this is the first time we're coming. We're coming together in in the midst of dispute. I'm excited about this one in particular I'm so I wanNA talk about the Harper's letter and conversation united sort of data didn't have after that and try to have a different version of it, but actually WanNa start before that and one of his conversation was because companies before the Harper Sutter came out you launched a journal called persuasion and you tell me about it, saying you want to talk about it on the show and said like I love to talk about it I. Don't think you really GonNa like this project, but but but I think we should discuss it. So I'd like to hear what persuasion is like what it's responding to, and also I thought I wouldn't like it so well. Let me do the first one I invented, so try to figure out why I use. The second thing was not. Straight for Johnson to actually I have been welcome for a long time as you know when assistance was podcasts, no on the threat of populism and typically ripen oculus. I continue to believe that argued very clean. explicitly. persuasion bat is the biggest danger. To democracy around the world now I also have this fear very moment when we should be trying to stand up for the values of the society to stand up for things that speech, due process, most explicitly most proudly articulating values in a constructive way, a lot of people are. Careful about owning. sometimes Donald Trump for example invokes concentra free speech sort of truly sway a sudden people think well. Perhaps that's a right wing. Concept movie shouldn't be defending free speech, perhaps Spencer idea of rights and I worry very much about the way in which that hamper our ability to finding before says also worry about some of the substantial. Injustices that we might impose oil inside. I've been doing interviews with some people who've been fired on that. Really quite shocking self who stances I talked to a lot of writers and journalists who feel that if they same thing at any point, evade as urge from consensus among progressives. That might have diarrhea. Federal consequences for them and people are more worried about here are not as journalists not mostly bus particular journalists. It ability to actually have honest debates that lead us to an accurate view of a will to and frankly and ability. To vanquish some of those very devoted enemies of a free society on the right, and so for all of US reasons I've launch this community. It's going to be both advocation and lead set of people who come together and debate in the woods and get to know each other and formulas leader Koa. I quoted this waging, because we are committed to free basic. Sales of the first of which is that we want to live in a free society in which individuals to pursue dignified life respective of they off the second. Is that we? Deeply committed to the social down you off the practice of persuasion and baffled. We will defend free speech and free inquiry and due process, and the third is emphasizing very important. We want to be animated by a spirit of persuasion so rather than to mock controlling goes through. Disagree with Fuss. Robinson Nana Nana. You will idiots. We want to make a positive. Optimistic thumbed of case about easing hopefully a lot of people. To join this project I'm so if you're interested in VAT Saudi to get the plucking go to www dot the suasion dot community interviewee to join us now campus tax something to a number and tech Yukon on the no, but perhaps that's a good idea. It's very. It's very archaic of your Suedes at seven seven seven. No. I don't know why. I. Guess, my sense is bad you uh, skeptical of some this project because you. On equity worried about some things that are going on. On pots of but you don't see any liberal tendencies on parts of last full. You would assume that anything bets criticism of our inside anything, but is full grounding some of the ways in which many people feel free to speak out some ways in which people get fired a Vet Dad is a distraction from the most important thing and bad. You know this is blowing What is it about hill into a mountain or mountain into a molehill, eulex about onto a mountain. Yes, so let me try to process that for a second I. I, a hundred percent think the left has illiberal tendencies, so that is. And I feel like I'm often on the receiving end of them, so that that is definitely not something I believe. I don't WanNa tell you a wrong that I would find it. It's funny because I think I'm committed to all these same values, and this will come up in in the Harper's letter to. The difficulty I have with some of the or what feels to me like? In the space. Is it and I'm not accusing you of Salmon. It's one reason I felt like spread. You thought I wouldn't like your project, but but what I do see very often is what feels to me like a weaponization of values I hold and care about. On behalf of people who are using them to position or to gain advantage often people who have power already. And that doesn't mean there aren't cases. I worry about so for instance, the firing of David Shore civic analytics Civis. Civis with many things, go confusing about that company including the Knicks. Yes and so like lots of people I like signal boosted the pieces about how that's bad and I mean that was just a like an unbelievably terrible absent judgment by that organization that has also I think probably done a tremendous harm. It's very hard to trust a data analytics organization that fires people for doing their job of putting data out into the world so like. It is simply not the case that I don't think there are problems here. What I think I find difficult in this conversation is two things one is i. try to take really seriously the question. Of whether or not, people feel free to speak, feel free to make mistakes and free to be heard. And something that I sometimes feel like I. Take more seriously than some of the folks in this debate. Is that this is something that people on all sides of it want. And that many of the people who are often associated are hauled illiberal by one side, or in a practical way under much more daily threat in terms of their speech, and in terms of their movement and terms of their ability to express themselves in life by Trans people say then some of the people who are driving it, and so I would feel better about it. oftentimes I saw that more recognized and so one of the things one of the things that is always separating line for me is. Do I see the people in the debate. Practicing the kind of code of conduct and the kind of generous listening, and taking other ideas seriously and trying to protect everyone in it. Or do I see them protecting themselves and kind of throwing bombs. And this is not similar persuasion, but one thing that annoyed me about the twitter debate this week. which is what I ended up responding to with a tweet that a lot of free speech debates her about power is that I saw a lot of people seem to me to be as a liberal as willing to bandwagon and dunk and dismiss and refuse to hear as anyone else. Suddenly claiming themselves to be like icons of free speech, and that's where I worry about I. Worry about how much empathy there really isn't this debate. Because I want to see a public square where a pretty wide array of people feel safe to speak, but that means more than just saying. Free speech is important. It also means being quite attentive to things beyond like the twitter verse that keep people from being able to speak freely. I think that is very important then. Then again best random of reasons why own community I chose this tome. Chris Waging. Why one of our explicit goals is idea is waiting rather than You know trolling all dismiss it. you know I think that comes up a lot of debate about social justice, so we talk about somebody like Robin Dangelo and this book right fragility I have you know very very fundamental disagreements with Robin Dandruff know about how we can build a more fat and by multiethnic democracy. But I try an absent with succeed not to just control of because I understand, but many people who attracted to that book. Many of the people who don't really know what's in it before they buy, it will probably don't know what's in it before they recommended a driven to it because of a deep concern for remedying the racial injustices in this country to real and that should. Should be the absolute forefront of our politics in terms of trying to remedy spy so so I agree with you on on the importance of taking serious deeper motivations of people debate, and I agree with you that we should try to have mutually respectful fiscal now I do think that first of all the intentions off of persuasion has been caricatured quite a Bit v intentions of. That has cocktail quite a bit Bahamas net itself actually very carefully. Emphasizes the importance for example off making progress towards real racial equality in this country, and you know one of the objections against it offers obese. People just don't want to be criticized on the Internet with a slightly weird. Point, because suddenly I, when I decided to sign ventilator and I issue most of the office where absolutely web going to be a lot of blowback, so they didn't want to be criticized the Internet. The best course of action would have been not designed as let. The distinction between robust criticism. Open criticism on the Internet. All of which I think is absolutely fine. And people fearing, but they might lose the jobs that they might be portrayed as terrible humans in bigots, because they happen to disagree on one off twenty or thirty progressive positions, where for whatever reasons they disagree with the prevailing majority within progressive institutions. And I do think but some responses to this latter. Half being in bed vein. They haven't been criticized that they have been to suggest bad You know the latter makes on and I don't understand how that might be possible in a letter simply says we want. will free speech. I WANNA put a pin in the letter going to put a in the idea of unsafe because we're gonNA come back I. Think it's a very important conversation for us to have. There probably is some disagreement. But I wanNA talk about Robin Angela for a SEC so and Angelo, the author white fragility that book came at a couple years ago. It's shot up the bestseller list in the aftermath of George Floyd's murder. And I. Think it's actually useful book for this for this conversation so. I often talk on the show about arguments. I think are sort of sixty percent wrong and forty percent rate, and like the forty percent is important, and it's a little bit how I feel about the Angeles Book which if you ask me, is that a good book I would tell you know like if if you do I recommend it. The answer is no I agree with the critique that it is totally and reductive, and if you fully buy into its framework, there was no space for internal critique. Right like everything becomes an example of white fragility, and nothing can be actually discussed. That said. I have run newsrooms. And I have. Both in that context and my context reporter of choice to understand these issues spoken to. A lot of people of color. Who? Often in meetings often in debates experience. White fragility right? They say something that makes people feel like they are being attacked and all of a sudden like. They're not giving a huge range of tolerance. They're not given like a a lot of space what they are done. What happens is their shutdown. And so tim be while I. Think the book goes too far and a bunch of different ways. What I think is valuable about it and I think it makes it useful for this discussion is it is actually trying to trace away? Trace a method through which speech gets shut down, which is that if when you speak the people who hold power in the room and hold the majority in the room, which tends to be true if you're a black person, talking to white people. Can Begin to feel extremely, and they've take what you say is it makes them feel defensive? It makes them feel attacked because like there is a lot of sensitivity around these issues like tear of being called or seen as racist that leads to like backlash. That's like a way. People don't feel safe speaking and like I WANNA use up turnberry advisedly here like I have heard from many people for many years about how hard it is to speak in rooms where it is not hard for me to speak. And it is that kind of. Ecosystem level or atmospheric fear speaking that I sometimes that often feel like puts me on the other side of this, because I feel, it's not being recognized for what people are reacting to his not being well recognized, which is something that is like a genuine impediment to their ability to speak freely. That doesn't like again. Make everything Danjus but great, but I think it should make. A Lot I think what the value of the book is. It should make a lot of white people think about the ways in which they do not create spaces through their own reactions where people feel able to speak because of so defensive and when you make, people empower defensive like to go back to what you're saying. That is a threat to your job. That is a threat here. Advancement is a threat to your promotion is a threat to whether or not you get the cover two months from now, and it's a real deal. So let me make a distinction between. sort of what the? Let me. Let me talk about a community for contacts right. So I've been writing about populism, and sometimes the critique I get from people who ever wanted to send populism or who you know. Have a deeper sort of opposition to. The. Practice of democracy is to say Oh, you're just saying with OB's populous, a crazy over people who voted for populous crazy and we shouldn't have any sympathy for that, and so you'll just saying, but everything is wonderful right now smoked. And my response in that context is to argue, but is not the case that my book on this topic people busted democracy goes deep into structural reasons why populists are popular this moment and I actually think better lodge to critique that political bowel contents on both sides of the political spectrum have a about establishment about. AS REAL REASONS WHY ANGRY! Now that doesn't mean that Donald Trump is actually going to help solve any boats fix. It doesn't mean that he's a good solution to any of those things that makes me at the very fundamental level an opponent office now. I don't want to combat on trump. And planned to make a, but I think in a similar way I can acknowledge and. Agree with you. That the real power dynamics in this country of that a lot of people who are disadvantaged because the rates because. Status because of any number of other things. Don't feel as as confident and comfortable. Speaking upslope himself in meeting that do victim be punished wouldn't shut down Ford. And we absolutely should see that as Ronald sets to to to to realizing a multi-ethnic democracy, a truly free society. I'm absolutely on board of now where I disagree. Is that a rub? India Andrew can be helpful in actually constructing that well best because I don't think she's a little, Kooky. She goes a little bit to file something like that. I think down US fundamentally different from the ones new embrace to build kind of society, and he is why I'm. She believes bad for something. Fundamental white people haven't. And that in order to overcome these racial injustices, white people could take on a much more developed and explicit. WHY IDENTITY! while. She has a negative you about identity. I think that's actually surprisingly close to some of the things that people on before right with. and. I feel that the people right a better strategic sense of this that if you really trying to reinforce exacerbate the extent to which people feel that the have a group identity advantage, important attribute bathroom anything else that would likely to eventually invested with positive bed with negatives feeling I'm the same goes for the crown of relationships we can have in society across ethnic lines when you look at the descriptions drummed the Andrew Gibbs of what into actions between widen on what people might be light. He describes every time, but a wide Robson on by person as you using a whole machinery of white supremacy in order to stuck down now undoubtedly there be circumstances where that is the case, but a lot of time in in friendships I've had. I've had We interrupt time because that's a way of being excited together also. Sort of giving star formation of competing each other's photos of moving along the conversation. And you know it makes me. One of the last had was friendships in has had bus relationships because I. Really don't think that those lumens a what we were doing. Was this sort of power relationship enrich I? AM loading it down on. My friend was overpowered by the premise. Ford about it. In those terms, we couldn't actually have been real friends. And so for me the critique of white fragility in Robin Angelo and some of these ideas. That space is a very important rahm because I'm every bit as anti-racist as they are. I'm every bit as committed to get into its greater racial equality in this country, but I actually think that ideas a deep. You heard to that 'cause. I, think I think that's a sixty percent of the book I. Disagree With Something Practically, not different place right fragility, but. Let me. Try to think about the right way to structure this. Let me try this before we get to things like the Harper Center. Because a Harper's are in some ways to be is not a super useful document precisely because it's very carefully constructed I've probably like if if you re in the Harper's letter I'd been like good op-ed, biota. And to the extent, the Harper's letter is a political document that is read through the Lens of signatories and is debated on twitter like I have disagreements with sort of what I think. People are using it for and how they're using it, but I think it ends up being like a very deep parsing of quite vague taxed, so I don't want to get a super lost their. What I'd like to do. Next is trying to diss aggregate some of the things that were talking about worried about sort of like this aggregate simply components. Of the the speech and canceled culture debate, and so let me tell you what I think is here and then you can tell me like. What else do you think I'm is here that I? Missing so I think there's a question about the boundaries of acceptable debate itself. There's always a range of ideas in the conversation capital see that is considered legitimate like having a big talk about whether or not choose neatly greedy and selfish, and they should be expelled from the country because they pose a danger that like there have been times. That was a very legitimate discussion to have including by the way tale. Of always loved the nineteen thirty nine. I married a Jew. Piece, which is just like my favorite NAM no forty. Two of forget what year was I'm so that that used to be a conversation. You could have like in plight drawing rooms, and you can't have it now and I think that's good, so there's a question about whether or not the the debate is actually contracted or I think there's an argument that is actually expanding then. There's the climate the debate itself happens in. Related, but how comfortable people feel making arguments how they whether they feel comfortable making mistakes how things are read whether or not there's `generosity it is possible to have a wider debate and a more unpleasant one, which is a a an argument I maybe lean to, and then I think, and this is also important I. think gets some stuff you're arguing in persuasion. There is the power. Power of the institutions at hosts, debates, and how they're changing whether or not they are able to protect writers who are making dangerous points whether or not they're able to create an internal inclusive spaces, but also just like whether or not they have space to make mistakes whether or not they are insulated from public comment. Right like how they are run. HOW POWERFUL THE GATEKEEPERS ARE! All of those field of me like somewhat separate issues with somewhat separate questions and solutions that are wrapped up in this argument, but I wanNA see if that taxonomy makes sense to you or the things, or there are things you WanNa. Take away from it. I'd have to think about it more I think that's the reason the way of breaking it out. So why don't we start going through that way in the leaking oil? Oil always at things onto one great note, of course now with sound that often you know, the psalmist movement. It's pots. I'M GONNA offend everybody on the podcast by sharing my favorite equip about the city of Boston which I've lived in for a good number. He but it's a lot less than the sum of its parts. When you look at ingredients elements that should be great, but somehow it doesn't add up to a city. I think in inverse way it might be that each of these issues doesn't look so fucking, but you put them together and you get away Shen where the majority was huge number of. Writers Progressive Space. Really feel like the have to watch their mouse with everything say and one wrong attractions. One unpopular opinion is going to have such severe professional consequences for them, but it's better to a during and again my concern about bad is not about individual righteous in buffets for a cab. Batu it's about Wayne which constricts the readers of progressive organizations, the extra able. To reach to make sensible world and the success with which we are able to take on for example people like Donald Trump so just just just to put that as a sort of preview of what my response very might be with that. I'm very happy to go through. Your takes on the debate. These plenty so bit by bit. Tired could veal after meal tiny of carbon right now there's a huge a break and order from some of your favorite local restaurants. Now's the time to make great dinner simple and get delivery with a caviar APP. Caviar is available in over twenty five cities with a ton of carefully curated restaurant options. She's from in every location and look I know there's a whole fleet of delivery apps out there but caviar. It is the place to find your favorite local restaurants. Do a much better job cuting. Options who actually want drowning you and everything and this place is the sport now more than ever. I've been ordering on caviar from place. I love locally in Oakland Holy. Basil thought there on Caviar. They have mazing Vegan section and soups and rice bowls, and it's like one good part of my week. There are other good parts, but. Take out man. Keeping me going right now. Caviar is the easiest way to support. Your local haunts gets actually WANNA eat whether there's a whole plate of breakfast and entire Margarita Pizza, or if you feel unhealthy, I guess a salad, so you can get the kit delivery and get the food you want just for our listeners, caveat, offering ten dollars off an order of twenty dollars or more do is put in the offer code easy era at checkout remember those ten dollars off purchase of twenty dollars more with offer code. Easy Ira Donna Caviar on the APP store, play store and use code easy are A. Songwriter charting and I'm musicologist. Nate Sloan. The hosts of switched on hop a podcast about how popular music works and why it matters every week Charlie I break down the biggest pop songs in a way that you've never heard before. On switched on PA we have conversations with the likes of Carly Rae Jephson Lizzo and fifths. Most. Recently, we chatted with Baz Luhrmann to uncover one of the earliest internet hoaxes that turned into the unlikely hit. Everybody's free to wear sunscreen. And explorer to how people are making music in twenty, twenty under extremely challenging circumstances. And ask ourselves if we were all wrong about Kanye, west so join US search for switched on pop in your favorite podcast APP and listen to an episode about your favorite artists, and then subscribe for free on Apple Podcasts, spotify, or wherever you're listening to get new music explainers each week. So. Let's start with the boundaries of debate itself. There's this. And journals comes from the eighties actually about spheres and the argument. Is that in journalism? There's sort of three spheres that ideas are put into, and I find this more helpful than sort of talking about freedom of speech because I don't think we're dealing with laws passed to construct speech I. Think we're dealing with the sphere. So the the argument was that journalists put things. Spheres of consensus, which is like America. Usually pretty good. traditionally has been a sphere of consensus idea. fears of deviants things that are just considered ideas that are outside the boundaries of debate, which you know as I, was saying a second go like are Jews innately selfish greedy and should be expelled from the country. and then the sphere of legitimate controversy. And my view is that the spirit legitimate controversy is changing has changed quite rapidly over the past. Let's call it twenty years. It is both contracting and expanding, but I'm not truly sure that I believe that it is contracted more than it is expanded when I think about when I came into journals me, two thousand and five or when I started paying close attention, which is more on two thousand. You could not to a first approximation be an outright socialist at most of the mainstream, big institutions like socialism, which is considered a ridiculous view. Drug Decriminalization had very few loud. Proponents ideas that are now taken as much more mainstream era gender expression like you would. You would not have been Oh okay, saying now there are also ways at the sphere has gotten smaller that people are trying to push ideas that were mainstream ten years ago into a sphere of deviance, but but I want to ask you on this question. Do you think the spirit legitimate controversy? Today is larger or smaller than it was twenty years ago. I I. It's hard to judge with Lonzo's more. I think broadly speaking I might agree. With your. Own judgment affects i. mean certainly in some ways has got bigger and somewhere Scott and smallest of Oval Judgment. off whether sort of a total amount of higher Aloha is hotter make, but I do think that the question should go a little bit beyond that I think two things have changed wanted Lorenz, but county and one which Warriors About v extend to which people are free to go beyond. This field is physically. Wise me about the country. Is that fifteen or twenty years ago? Though was once feel disagreement was largely unified i. mean you know if you ecosystem wasn't varietal was a little bit different. It says ecosystem Muslim, but after a little bit different, but those two actually went so far hot could think about business one six system. Today no sense at all to conceptualize it as one hundred system. If you on the right that you know honest, he has in criticism of Donald Trump is outside agreement. You will be canceled by the riot if you criticise Donald Trump, you know within bows, institutions can go of. Fine embiid within derived is outside the over disagreement. Don't WanNA laugh. Obviously not. Hugh I have moments via before Tweeden Usually justified. Condemnations of Donald Trump about a whole set of other things where with very Catholic, but how we express ourselves said we might sometimes not say it at all, because we think actually might have consequences right so I think this splintering of. Visting sodomy into two different half is one of the main things. This happened over the last twenty thirty years. And I think it has bad consequences for society I think it does make this polarized as you in your book. I think it does make us. Much as likely to be swayed by evidence. I think it makes us much. Ninety doubled down on. People like Donald some if that's the. Habit so that's sort of one. Let me hold you on that point for one second. I want to back to back up on something that I think is interesting and I want to pull apart. It seemed I think it is true, and it's actually my list. Talk to you about that I think institutions stick contain a lot of disagreement. This is true of the political parties, and it was true for media institutions. I think increasingly institutes disagreement is now polarizing into conflicts between institutions, so I think that is true. But you're saying I mean. There are a lot of not like Republican politicians although I think that's a more normal thing that it is difficult to criticize the president but I mean there are a lot of right-leaning people who are still right lean like widely seen as right leaning who are very critical. Donald Trump I mean a is full of people like this. You've eleven and if you go back a couple decades something I was thinking about will, both about this podcast was in ninety seven. Mardi parrots just fired. He just fired Michael Kelly. Because Mike Kelly was too hard on Al. Gore just fired him. And so the idea that there have been like within political coalitions consequences for very long time when people felt like you're betraying the political coalition I. Don't think that's his new. I think that what feels newer to people's at a lot more. This plays out in public and they can see it, but that's one reason. I'm sometimes a little skeptical. This will go to what I'M GONNA. GonNa. Say on culture because I am worried about it, but this is sometimes when I'm skeptical, it's worse than it was in the past. What I think often true. It's more transparent than it was in the past, but I suspect and I. Don't have data on this, but the problem is, nor does anybody else that there were more firings for and few and more non hirings to enforce. Enforce consensus in the media atmosphere of thirty years ago than there are today I can't prove it and I'm not one hundred percent shore, but I remember a lot of people getting fired constantly for idiosyncratic reasons, and that was just like understood as a way sort of small magazines worked right like if you're the nation or the new republic or the national review, just like weird things happened. Happened you all the time because they go well known thing, and I can't say for sure if it is true, but like it has long been rumor that David. Brooks has never made editor of the national. Review because Buckley didn't feel like it should be handed. Someone who's Jewish like these things very much in the media, but you didn't see them as publicly as you do now. You think it would take A. Five will cost to get to the bottom of this question, and we probably should have already done more so why not just right? Why not go? But. I, think you know. Let's let's let's. Let's take a moment for sake of argument, but you argument despite well what implications we take from that we take from the implication that we should be less worried about it. Today hosted. We take from that implication. The divide penalized that will is being a writer that back being adults then. I hope it stood up for this. People I hope that would have sat. You know what this is not a reason why people should get fired. Something wrong, so you know by and large I agree, but America today is much more just than much better place than was years ago. The quantum that I think is crazy about people like rob the Angelo. Is that basing to deny that point? Is. In a much place on Moose fix fifty years ago. We have a good chance of being in a much better place. Fifty s hands. Than we are today. That's what I hope to. To help do with my writing it with my activism, and with everything else now is that true in this specific environment over media? I'm a little bit more skeptical, missed particular context, capsule and watch that would actually be reason to be more optimistic, but what is certainly wouldn't take from. That is the idea that we should put up with that today, or that is not finishes, today or a dozen have very negative consequences for our discounts today because it was was that twentieth. Nobody, but so this I agree with you and the I agree that can be diversionary tactic to say that something happened before and as such. You can't worry about it today. But this is actually why taxonomy here because it's going to bring us back to the culture, in which he's debates are taking place at the reason I make that distinction. Is, it is the case that it is less true today that people get arbitrarily fired at their institutions for positions and opinions they hold, and that a wider range of people can get hired because a wider range of use of represented across the institutional set like that, actually that that that has implications for what we are or not needing to solve here, but perhaps. capless Nuba but because I did I had to, and I only made my. Oh, I apologize. Yes, because I think the other important thing, is that the examples you mention a once the define which pod you are right, so as one of the first pieces of dissuasion by the way we had. A piece is doing, but we should get rid of at will. Employment and ensuring people can only be fired for just 'cause. There's all kinds of reasons. Good Kaskel tipper democratic reasons for PROFUNDIS. Firings to Zesco opponent contracts to Edward Drama. But one of them is that it makes it much hotter of companies to sacrifice people. David shore in these odd sort of a social media, pants and so. Ensuring but it's just was is important thing, but but but he is the thing that's interesting, which is. Always going to have basic political coalitions, right civis analytics is a progressive data, and if one of the employees that me had an awakening in decided that Donald Trump is the best thing ever and want to make sure that Donald. Trump wins again in twenty twenty. It is understandable why that would make that position at civis undertakes. That we complicates right. I'm and when you're talking about this person who got fired from republic back in mid nineties because they were very critical of Al Ghul. That's approaching the same kind of Howard. Sleep as a couple of questions that. Define the basic dividing line between. Left right, between Democrats and Republicans And if you're on the wrong side of that, bet complete problems for you I. I was still mostly opposed those kinds of firings. I still think we should. Sort of tolerate a lot disagreement on both things, but I think what we often see today is that is sort of you know forty different positions on forty different issues on which is very very clear of Progressive Party line. And you can be an agreement on thirty nine out of forty of us. You can be on strong agreement thirty, nine, hundred forty on those, but if you publicly admit to being in disagreement on the forty four goats issues, then you're not just fired from a job. Potentially you're being made out to be an evil person, a bigot, and so on and so forth and that I think is just not a helpful way of running with discussion. That seems to me like it may be new. This I think is probably where we actually have some disagreement. I don't think. That is. True beyond the realm of anecdote at least in journalistic institutions. And I'd like to sort of hear the case that it is I wanNA move onto culture in a minute. Because what I think is happening in many cases, and this will be united a little bit more. The culture in which this debate is playing out. It feels like that that the experience of becoming the focus of twitter hate for a day particularly from people sort of feel like they're inside. Your coalition is so gutting and annihilating, and it really is like people can. Downplay it, but it really does matter that that it feels like that. But I would like to hear. Do you have like five examples of people who are sort of like with our institution on most everything? But they had like one little slip up, and then like journalistic institutions because. I talked to other editors in chief I watch how things go in my industry I ran one of these places where people by the way out the Washington Post people tried to get me fired all the time. The media research. Council made a hobby of it and when I was editor in chief of people. Try Try to gang up. In case you get me to fire my staffers and like I wasn't fired. Identifier anybody for those reasons and so not to. To say like my experiences. Somehow is everywhere, but I think there's a perception that people can ever have a contrary opinion, but like you're at the Atlantic. The Atlantic publishes stuff that pisses people at the Atlantic off all the time. It happens constantly There's plenty of stuff I. Disagree With Him I. Don't think it's that narrow, but convinced me that it is convinced me that like. If you missed up on new one out of forty ideas, you're gone. A! Look. Let's let's discuss even so i. think it's in many ways than other discussed case, you know one that's important because it clearly is a very influential position in journalism, which is James Bennett who used to run off the page of the New York Times. now you ran off bad as I'm sure many dismissal, most no by Tom Cotton arguing that we should send in troops during the process of motor of Modesto Floyd. To be very clear. It's not all bad, but I personally would have run because I have different notion off. What my ideal age do I think Rafi speaking to kinds of models of how might run on page one of them? Is that you a guided by rule, which and not only narrow a, but but a set of values I think the Atlantic inspired lodge guided by values of liberal democracy, and that defines what isn't is published in those pages, and so as a result I imagined that if from. A alphabet Atlantic. The Atlantic probably would have said no, and I would have read without editorial. No that's never been the model of the New York Times The New York Times in the last four or five years has published an op Ed by the Taleban. It has published. mccutcheon it has published an op Ed I on Garin government propagandists, and the reason for that is that it has a notion of been used in his hat, emotional of what should be off the page, which basically is over your opinion, which say sometimes it can be surprising, smart moving arguments by people who don't have a platform, and sometimes that can be opinions, but an important to hear because of who is saying. So, they would not have published. An article by Joe Schmo bats of business the way, but trump should deal. But system communist W influential united, states senator before there was important for the public again. I would not have run that article, but it is. Clearly NBA tradition of the kinds of things the New York Times publishes now would it be the tournament for the New York Times to change its model to save, perhaps we should actually have a different set of values for what guides offense. That's a good idea. We can have a debate about that. I'm not opposed to it. But. What they did was to pretend that the was out of keeping with a tradition of pages to pretend that reason why, with starring James Done, it was over unprofessionalism, rather than simply because he happened to a trade off social media restful, and that has willing attack, because it means that every editor and every writer is going to think twice trains full, writing or publishing a controversial because they know that even though that's action admission supposedly of what they're meant to do particular papers. If it just happens to piss off enough people on twitter related to be out of a job and not only be like to be out of a job, but but likely to have the organization essentially Ni- about on the way out to save at least five is not to appease. The social media firestorm a bit because you about a drop in your face, so I think James Bennett in this op. Op Archer really interesting case. and I want to put a pin in because I'm again I think impart it so relevant because it doesn't happen that often. We've not gone through a rash of OP. Ed editor firings over the past five years or something so again. I'm not sure that I agree that this generalize in the way, but I take your point of chilling effect, so so let's discuss him. I want to separate out two things here. which is the op Ed, An and James, Bennett and the conditions in which you left I feel a little uncomfortable all. Pronouncing strongly on Bennett's firing or resignation or whatever you? WanNa call it the message in different ways at different points. It is very clear to me. The op-ed didn't like fall beneath some conceptual standard for like writing or lying that the New York Times holds like that was wrong. You'll claim, but it did. The New York claimed that it did which is clearly ally right. They brought like I. Love The New York Times they run op-eds that have things that are untrue in them. Constantly like a big issue I have with patches is that we let opinion writers? We have a low standard for opinion. And we have a high one anyway so. Bennett as the the op-ed page is in a managerial role, and there'd been for various reasons like I know a fair amount of time scuttle, but due to my role in the industry and there'd been for various reasons like. Eruptions in his tenure, and it's a little unclear to me. If what happened here had kind of like straw that broke the camel's back effect where it was felt, either by Bennett, or by his bosses, or by both depending on on what could have happened here that he can no longer lead that team effectively dealing with management. That's not the same as somebody's ideas James Bennett in this case like didn't get fired. He wrote, but if you manage a section poorly, and you can no longer manage section than like whether or not you agree with the underlying. You still need the times. OP ED page to run well I. Am not here justifying the firing of him I'm only explaining like. I'm A. I'm a little. On it in ways that make me a little concerned to to really take strong position on it that said I think the op-ed itself really calls the center of this conversation into question. Because here. You have an example. Of Words and an argument. That get argued for under a free speech. Framework, right like and obviously nobody's entitled to speech on the New York. Times op-ed page, but let's just take a semi metaphorically people. And yet these words and that column. If taken seriously and the reason they were going to be running the Times. op-ed pages the idea which they said explicitly the Tom Kahn is somebody whose words have power, and he should be taken seriously and heard if listened to by the president. They could have led to violence from the military against protestors. They could have chilled speech. They could have made it dangerous, even lethal to speak against the government, because let's not be fucking. Idiots about this and pretend that calling the US military against protestors under the regime of Donald Trump is a safe thing to do right. We all know if we saw that in another country. We know what we're looking at. And so one thing that I feel very caught up on this is I actually think in? In some ways it speaks to some of the difficulties here. There are certain kinds of speech that make other kinds of speechless safe. There are certain kinds of speech. Make other people feel unfree to speak, and there is a lot of sympathy in some ways for like Tom Cotton and the folks trying to publish him who got on the on the wrong side of twitter, but when the near comes, journalists were saying like this makes our journalists. The put them in danger. Who are covering these protests? It's not a timing that is not a view that those are the those words could have become bullets, and so actually think that op. It is a really interesting question. Like where does how do you weigh the cases because I think there are a lot of them here and way the systems, where if you let one group speak freely, and you amplifier speech and give their speech more weight and momentum power your potentially making it dangerous like literally dangerous bullets level dangerous for another group to speak freely well. A couple of on as I was saying early I need would not have published the op-ed identify. The, about was the New York, times, but advertise seventy wouldn't come this the authentic displays, so we sort of agreed on a on that I do think argument. That was dangerous about Tom. Cotton is off at is just the denial of reality, and it's one of the ways in which is this argument? Full restrictions on free speech is a little bit fake, because it's a denial of reality. Look the thing I. Don't cat one way or the other about the by What a cab out is that he is United States, Senator from the State of Arkansas with tremendous influence within the Republican Party and his client likely. Bob. Supplements have sent likely, but has a very good shot at being the next, the public presidential candidate in twenty twenty four right I wish that we could go and vote him out of office, but unfortunately that is quite unlikely, and so we all have this feeling of impotence, looking at people like Tom Cotton having power in our country, feeding that we can't do anything about it, and then they get to publish many times that we should have been able to do something about because those spaces that we the go sense sort of good progressive. Liberal minded people control into. How dare he invade our space? It's clean our space, but it's not clear to me that that would change anything about the underlying situation is not at all clear to me that his argument would have been less persuasive if he had given into the Fox News website to run Donald trump than it being in the pages of the new. York Times. I, it's not clear to me that it will be good for us to be more. About what people in the right won't do than we than? We already are at the moment because it's honestly hotness day in day out, and by the way started will clear to me that cotton's up. AD worked for him I think sort of whole is told. allowed him to troll the crimes pretty badly. Bit Fee definitely worked for him in that way in that way, it certainly welcome, but the public strongly against that idea in the days after we. In part because of the attention from both sides Lavin than just from the right wing, Echo Chamber that those ideas got the published manual so again, I personally would not have published the off that idea that the publication of his made the country less safe as opposed to allowing us to see in engage with criticized votes ideas. Put back them. is unclear to me and I've away is at margin because the real problem is Tom. Cotton is a US senator at Weber not to gets to publish a times once. Every two years is not going to change that sad fat. But. We agree that the real problem with Tom Cotton is Tom Cotton can not gonNA that, but this does feel a little bit of a dog. Cotton his power. I'd happy for him Tom. Cotton heavy some dude in Arkansas. Ranting at his NAVIS. Yes, Tom Concert fully expresses Tom. Cotton S. IT'S A it's a shame that he has the position he does I think this is a little bit. Dodge right. I think this view that I would never publish his op-ed. I don't like this op Ed. I wouldn't publish it as in your times, op Ed editor, but that's said given them. They decided to publish it the fact there like an overwhelming reaction to try to turn people against this op. Ed To try to say this is the kind of speech. We should not allow because it makes other speech like it literally and dangerous allies of protesters. I think it's I mean this is. This is where people get really frustrated and debate where they feel like to somebody what they are doing. Is Debate like okay? You wanted to provoke us with his op-ed you did. You you one here. We are were furious. I think like. PUTTING US I've been a little bit because I think it is like a a an outcome this, but like I think that there is a. The question media is not and this is one of the tricky things is fundamentally not free speech amplification. We operate under scarce terms right. We have more people who like to publish inbox than who we can publish. We've the editorial resources to edit the money to pay the New York. TIMES, op-ed page has way more. People want to write for the New York. York Times op. Ed Page than it has slots on the New York Times op-ed page. See you are here often dealing with this question of amplification, right, you're dealing with this question of what are the values underpinning the views you do and don't amplify and actually think an interesting place here and the reason I liked the Tom Cotton op. Ed as like. Like a as a debate like locus is that I often think that one of the values for me I. Give us thought myself. One of the values that helps me decide what to amplify is what do I think is going to lead to a healthier debate, right? What what kinds of speech do I? Think will lead to more speech, so I have. Have a lot of right wing people on this podcast much more so than most podcast run by people of my political opinions, do and I've had a lot more people who attacked me on this podcast and I think most podcasters do like I'm pretty committed to this idea, but I don't have people on this podcast. Who I think are fundamentally a liberal. I don't have people on this podcast. Who I think that if you took the idea, seriously, other people will lose the ability to have their ideas heard, and like that's a tricky space to be in of course right, and it's a judgment call, but it does speak I. Mean I have noticed that on the Harper's that are on persuasion. There's some people who live described as on the right, but there's virtually no trump's supporters and i. don't think it's a crazy idea because I. think true trumpism is a liberal, and doesn't itself believe in free speech? Speech that was the problem with Tom Cotton op ED. The Tom Cotton op ED was an illiberal document using a liberal media to to gain influence, and there was a huge counterreaction to that and I think that's part of why, in the end it didn't work. If people have been chiller about and said well, you know what we got. Hear all ideas I don't think there would I don't think it would have been as clear. The trying to execute a policy like that would've been very would have been a very politically unwise to do. Well, but I think it's very important to distinguish between two different forms of criticism. I have no problem at all of criticizing the pet. This is not a dodge because I too would have been happy to criticize the offense I think I may have done a much lower than I did or not, but I certainly don't disagree with its use, and as I put. Why did put us on twitter? I disagreed with a decision to publish. It was a tradition of in your clemson. That's important to note. Bid I would on whole. Ravi of at the New York. Times adopted a broad set of Detroit. Stunned I take to be both of the Atlantic. Don't speak to Atlantic than the views. They have I was upset when a New York. Times published Molina. Pen was upset when you times. LETTING PUTIN UPSET WITH The New York Times published, but Taleban and some of the same reasons I was upset when bay published this particular up at now. I, have no problem at all with people loudly energetically, even rudely, criticizing the op-ed I don't even have a problem. People criticizing with decision of New Times right to run me off at, but I do think we need to preserve the possibility that people make. Mistakes and misjudgments, the habit of conception of what the page should be without those kinds of professional differences, because that's where retooling effect comes in, it's one thing for James Spanish to have a shitty day on twitter, and after deal with a lot of people nights inspects inspects telling him. He messed up. It's another thing. Boom truce's jaw because loses his job. Every other added to the country will say okay. I don't know whether line is. Right, but if I go anywhere close to that line Mike, Career might suddenly be dom, but drains I suddenly. Run back, so let's let's let's stay well Cleo that lie and that's where you start to get into self censorship. You start to get into finks. You start to get into. A real constriction of what we can say to each other, and what data we can climb to to each other and what we can feature on the on the. Left side whole political spectrum. So let's uses to move. Into twitter because I think this really really gets to the next point, so we've been talking here about like what is what are the boundaries of flight contested debate like what kinds of things are people willing to entertain across? The set of institutions I think are understood is in the mainstream, the conversation, which is like not just in your times at the Atlantic but Fox, but also national review and others right. There's a kind of conversation that is a emerged effective immediate ecosystem. What has changed dramatically in the past ten or fifteen years is the rise of twitter as the central network in which journals are talking to each other getting their story ideas paying attention looking for feedback. It is wet like we get at Vox a pretty small percentage of our traffic from twitter, but the degree to which it is shaping everybody's perceptions is overwhelming and terminologies for every single newsroom I know of. My view of twitter is that it is simultaneously expanded debate in certain ways by letting marginalized voices be heard and organized by like forcing. Elite kind of gatekeepers to hear from intense minority held opinions. They could otherwise ignore like there are ways. I think socialism discourse has been really helped. Twitter really opened up. I think racial discourse has been opened up on twitter a lot of ways at the same time though twitter has made it. I think feel much more dangerous to say almost anything controversial in any direction and I think it has like I. Think a lot of the chill atmosphere that people feel comes from there, and also like some of the pressure that institutions field to get them to make somewhat hasty decisions comes from these debates, playing out in twitter and public. Were they like feel? They have to almost respond twitter speed so I really want to ask you this simple question like how much of this problem would disappear for you? If twitter didn't exist like how how how different you world would be. So I do think a lot of the problem with does appear, but I want to be very clear about what you mean by that right. I don't think it's a problem that people get dragged. Would Avon which right I mean? I actually wrote a piece in defense independent I think if you'd never race you been. You're so so either. So, it's huge to the changing winds off. Opinion Revenue in group that you always shut up about what you secretly believe that unoriginal. You're out of step with anybody, but either way to never raise your than your sort of Todi rather than somebody who's actually thinking for themselves, which is still takes to be the size job of any righto academic that I appreciate the good work. You did trying to get me ratio the other day. On a diet for that day was just to make sure that you didn't Fail what a ratio racial test exactly right, this is important is important to get ahead on the ratio ratio exact. So I don't think that this you know. I don't think the problem is that people are afraid of having. People shouted them on twitter at his I. Don't think that should be the problem I think. People should just put up with that I. Guess charged out on twitter all day long, and that's fine I mean sometimes it's upsetting sometimes puts me in a bad mood, but that is not a restriction on my speech, but. If I start to worry that when people criticize me on twitter, then dean of my university. Is GonNa Think? About, my employment will, if enough people criticize me on twitter, suddenly of you know, my job at a magazine is in doubt and start to self censor. Out of materials via for my lively, that starts to be a real problem and I do think but a law. That problem would go away. Twin way not because what people upset about it's not. It's happening on twitter because outlined twitter is so. Influential on everything else south I actually have a very sort of random Ford on this, which is that I'd never really understood or engaged with until like half a year ago, so and Ben, randomly downloaded the APP not playing around with a little bit I found it to be a much hell play in interesting ways now to be very clear, the sub communities within read that you can opt in to which probably nasty and perhaps more dangerous than twit. Bed! The mainstream communities unvetted. Actually fruitful kind humane, often funny by favorite separated is m. i the asshole where people you know, pull it as Baragan sub read it. It's a wonderful separated. What people post about whatever little dramas that have mnay, but not quite clear whether the band arrived within the wrong and I mean nine thousand nine out of one hundred times I read beyond too bad and beats the one in various advice columns of major national magazines by unknown way, the response sensible informed humane brutally I would say progressive in terms of values a bit in a way that actually uh speaks to a huge segment of the population. And why is that because the? Algorithm privileges pose, but have the biggest delta the biggest difference between upwards downwards. And one of the huge problems I think on twitter no cost less way of expressing disagreement with oppose. You have two very publicly. Knock response or between with a common. And whereas on Reddit, those posts a buried, they go to the end of the pile on twitter. That's the thing but everybody, so I think a lot of it is about sorting mechanism on twitter, which privileges Ivan speaking to group in ways that everybody who thinks there's a little bit crazy just doesn't have quite the energy to contend all the tweets that just get everybody enraged. Everybody's talking about it and bashing it going back in full House I. Really think you're missing. What makes rather work to to be honest about this and I think in a relevant way. It is true I. Agree with you that the red kind of algorithm dimensions or better than in some ways in the twitter ones, but those red at communities work first, and foremost because their communities were there moderators who set reasonably strict rules that they enforce with the application of hundreds and hundreds of monthly man hours, and like they restrict speech. I'm not saying you should do that everywhere, but but I really think it's important to note that one reason a place like right. It often feels better is that it is to a pretty heavy extent. Extent moderated and on those big communities. They have teams of moderators and I mean there's been great journalism in wired and the verge and elsewhere where they will go and like embed with the moderators, partaking some the tougher communities for a month, and it's a lot of work. It's a lot of work to battery, but it is also deciding one light speech is going to be there when it's not I mean the things that get moderated out of I love our relationship advice. It's like my favorite place on the Internet. A lot of things are not. Not Allowed to be there and a lot of kinds of comments are not allowed to be there like love our T-, he a. it is the calmest place on the Internet you go there, and you know what people are doing like ever also arguing and yelling at you and the here people like taking photos of tea, but you know one of the rules on, artigas. You can't talk about whether or not. He is healthy. They have just decided that the debates over whether or not he is actually a health drink are so vicious and polarizing. Polarizing and so overwhelm the system. They are not allowed to have them, and so you can't like. I can't go on there and be like is green tea. GonNa make me live longer and so i. do think something to to like. Ask about is yeah. I think there are a lot of places on reddit where like feels a little bit more straightforward to speak freely. There are a lot of places that are horrible and they just by the way like a pretty controversial move. They deleted the art. The Donald celebrated. They deleted the CIA trump house. They deleted two hundred or something some bread. It's that they felt were in constant violation of civil discourse rules, but they are they take a much more heavy handed approach to speech because Steve Huffman. The CEO has said this many times because they've come to believe that the only way people are going to feel comfortable speaking on their platform if they feel pretty. Pretty safe speaking on their platform. Well, so I I think when you look when you go down some of those frats to the end you do get quite unpleasant comments. It's just algorithm sort of puts forward right so on many of those platforms I mean is obviously regulations on certain forms of civil speech is on twitter, though perhaps not as one enforced. But a lot of us are subject to restrictions. Right so on. They. Don't want relationship questions because they feel like they were completely overwhelmed beyond the kinds of questions in the of questions interview, interesting Ben Sorta. Am I ride with my girlfriend and variety of whatever domestic tip I'm servicing those kinds of things we don't allow but a very wide range. Of comments is allowed in terms off. You know who's in variety, was a morale, and when you look calf to offend you those but unpleasant and fitting UNCIVIL and inflammatory. That haven't been bad. The moderators haven't sort of banish them at the Algorithm. Dozen help to propel US forward so we can go back and forth on. Read it. Bet But I certainly think the algorithm is a big. This episode is sponsored by the Jordan Harvard Show, which is a podcast you should. And I know every day. Somebody tells you just have to listen to some podcast or other and you nod, and you say sure, and then you never listen to it. But don't let that up in here. Jordan. Show, which apple named one of his best of two thousand eighteen is aimed at making you a better informed more critical thinkers. You get a sense of how the world actually works in your own conclusions about what is happening. Each episode is a conversation with a different fascinating guests. I say there's something for everyone here. I really mean that in one episode. Jordan talks to a hostage negotiator. The FBI offers techniques on how to get people to. To like and trust you, which is sort of useful and disturbing? At the same time, another episode tells the story of cinematographer discovered Lost City in the jungle, and made one of the most important archaeological finds of the century Jordan is always focused pulling useful practical insights out of brilliant guests, and we're not talking pop, psychology or wishy washy. Self helps to the fear. The episodes are loaded bits of wisdom. He can use to legitimately change your mind and prove your life right away. Those yourself search Jordan. Harbinger show on Apple Podcast, spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts. On a talk about the role, the word safe place in this conversation. It's come up a couple of times. It has come up in. Like be emotionally honest about this. I am unbelievably furious about how my colleague Emily. Vendor has been treated I, thought she. She wrote a letter about our other colleague signing this harpist thing and just said like because of the voices on that letter who have been very Anti Trans! Like she didn't want her colleague reprimanded or fired anything, but like this kind of thing like it made her feel unsafe at a workplace and I don't. WanNa put this on vox? It just wanted note that that's happening in my emotional sphere in this, but I want to speak for my colleagues, but. To me and this is I think the place right. Come down most differently from a lot of folks otherwise fill in alliance with when it comes to this conversation. This just seems to me to be a debate from all sides about people wanting to feel safe and people believing a background level of safety is necessary for them to do their jobs well and to do their jobs openly, and some people are legitimately safe in the world we live in trans. People are good example a psych. There is a lot of government legislation. Legislation both in practice, and currently being debated by the way that is meant to make their lives miserable, meant to make it harder for them to live their lives. Normally there are they face harassment and danger on the street every day that I don't live in a world where the feeling of on safety as much closer at hand than it is to me. That doesn't take away from me. From feeling like everybody needs a feeling of safety to speak well, but that is why I am so frustrated in these debates when I feel like there is so little attention given. I think what ends polarizing debate is as question of. Do you feel that people are being self interested in it? Do you feel that they are actively trying to create a safe environment where many people can speak and be heard, or they just trying to create a safe environment for themselves, and they will happily brigade attack the de-legitimize refused to hear like other people. People when they ask for safety, too, and like one of my like big things in this is like I'm looking for how people treat others to see what they really believe about creating like a like a like an open culture of debate, and and an exchange dialogue and I feel like people are really shitty about this word. Safe I feel like so many people wanNA. WanNa feel safe and I wish that would give them empathy for people who don't and instead I feel like they're feeling of un-safety makes them angrier at the people like at other people were feeling safe in ways that they think like could constrain them. It's a complicated space, but like I I. Do want to push you on this because I feel like you are sort. Sort of on the outside of this one for me like I think this is all about safety I think you and your colleagues have persuasion WanNa feel safe. I think my colleagues. WanNa feel safe and I think we would have a healthier debate if instead of weaponized the words free speech and safety. We accepted that like those things were actually linked for almost everybody. I mean. I think. is a legitimate interest in viewing saved from legitimate interest in free speech. I do think about ways in which was to be in conflict, and we shouldn't sugarcoat around that and I think in both cases, the only principal solution is to scientific speech, because otherwise you're going to unlimited constrict space. What can be sad? In ways that Abo- capricious and arbitrary and very hard to sort of enforced in in any kind of of these systematic way, so let's let's talk for example I think it might be fruitful so I understand that many people who. Advantage. Many people who black. Lesbian transgender get terrible attacks on social media in other ways and I'm furious about that. I think absolutely they have an. Interest in feeling safe. The have an interest in platforms like twitter stepping and much more when people sent them frightening messages I by the way, have long food that the police should be much more active when people get a rape, rat's death threats, and so on I think it's something where the peace base doesn't Redo anything I don't think people. A legal riots able to threaten people. With Physical Hammond that way. We don't have the legal right to do that. Nothing police take cases most seriously, so I'm absolutely on your side. In terms of maximizing vis FIA in which people feel safe to speak the mind without having to FIA, getting boasts kinds of vile and did Eagle Steve. Alive and well. I do think it's important that in this debate often miss idea of safety is invoked to say, but if somebody says something that I disagree, or they say something, but I consider that after creed to be unacceptable opinion. Expression of that opinion. Makes me unsafe and so you know? That to me is one of the things that happened in that letter saying by signing Bahamas letter, one of my colleagues made my work environment unsafe and recognize the legitimate interests desire to feel safe and far recognized. Some of harassment can come away a bound, but people when we speak out about this, I think it's very important to Jack that principle on the merits be a data that somebody can make a work environment on. Say Even though they always treat you in a conscious way in person because they signed disagree with other people that you disagree with also signed if we adopt that. That as a general principle of public discourse venue can read shutdown anything you disagree with on an important topic using language of safety, and while I have sympathy for the real underlying interest feeling safe, and while recognized that many people could lease not to feel safe in public discourse. I think giving into that would be a little bit viewpoint over the early on I. Get fragility. Is. A real thing that some people can have strange response. I WANNA I WANNA hold on the term giving into that because I think this is actually where the thing the thing parts. I think people make very terrible mistake. When a assume that like when people explain what is happening to them when speech is not just an abstraction in a fun debate. When, people whose rights really are up for debate in the way that my rights tend to not be up for debate. That, like the word safety. There is real like their safety actually is under threat and like. One thing is you and I. Both know this on a very deep level. We do what we do because we think words matter ultimately for people safety right the reason you're worried about, and you write so much about authoritarian populism is you're hoping your words in some way will make a better world, obviously somebody doing the opposite thing of you in writing in favour of authoritarian populism is using in a way that could make people unsafe. Now it's not to say like we can't or shouldn't have debates, but having debates over whether or not an idea like trans. People are mentally ill, which is an idea that many people like? Ben Shapiro on the right like. Trumpet and I'm don't know everybody who signed the letter, but like there's a lot of trying to de-legitimize like just transpeople like moving through life, and that is a thing that really does like affect their safety and I. Think when folks say that what you don't. It didn't mean here, and it often doesn't mean like I want this person fired. It means I want this understood. It means that like in the same whether we're talking about the cotton thing like this is an argument. This argument say that like Trans People are mentally ill, which again is made by very well known commentators on the national stage. Right now and is as far as I can help basically held by this White House like this is an argument that is in its way to be chilling speech and not just speech, but the ability people. People have to live their lives, and this to me is like where I kind of get off the bus, I think I basically agree with you like all like on a lot of the big value questions here and like you, I think no pretty well like I do my work and lift my life in a spirit of open debate and I like try to keep pretty big space for that including having this conversation, but. I want to see from the free speech. People more of a recognition and concern. This is my core thing. I want to see them treat. The, folks who's like really do operate. I think under much more significant restrictions on speech. With a little bit more. Seriousness and that doesn't mean not worrying about their part of it, too right like I don't think you should have a chilling effect in like where you can't say like I. Don't know I. Don't like the police abolition like idea i. think you need police to fight violent crime? but I do want to see like. I don't see it sort of like wave away right like like. Yeah, of course like that's a big deal, but like let's get back to whether or not like I can write the things I want to write in my magazine. You know when I'm like a senior editor. There I like I wanNA. Hold on that for a minute, and I'd like to see work done to come up with what I really thought about the. The letter was like I'm fine with like may basically what the letter said? I just WanNa, see like a code of conduct that is actually here is how we are going to act and operate to make the the speech space safer for everyone, and to make it possible for them to operate in it, and that's what I don't see like what I saw was like. Emily spoke up against this letter and then all of. Of these people who say they are on the side of the open debate in the letter they like bass to twitter mob against her, and she spent days getting death threats, and so like what I see is her speech was actually quite really constrained with like did not want to constrain other people like she wanted to say what was true for her, and like did not want her colleague disciplined over, and it was very. Very explicit about that, but just like that to me like she wanted she was trying to have more of a debate than people are giving her credit for and people responded by trying to drive out of the debate, and like I want to see the people care about debate care about that, not just wave away will again I? Do think that the distinction between having a debate and whether or not people should be fired. Fear being fired yet. That wasn't buddy should well. I items think that that's reasonable construction. Because as you know wins, Asians haven't eagle duty to avoid created a walk in the organization I can say my defection of is reasonable. I understand that you can see why people outside the organization better reasonably came to the conclusion that in the invocation of hostile workplace is something that potentially put somebody's job endanger. The bed that writing a letter to wants mutual bosses goes beyond public disagreement so I. Think what strong reaction to that public latter. who was a product off? Is that it wasn't you know? Hey, he is the reasons why I've saying, but there's lettuce. Bad his the reasons why I think it's very bad. macronix signed this letter. He's wising This latter misses out a lot of things all of which is completed Egitim I think. Accepting that we're moving towards a world in which when somebody? Signs a public letter that some colleagues disagree with those colleagues. Will Van Ride in? A public letter to their bosses, saying that the signature on satellite like that creates a hostile work environment that may not have put the job of your various tablet. And though is successful colleague into doubt, but that would absolutely create a giant chilling affect for anybody who thinks about expressing opinions on controversial topics, so I think that the reason why the guava response. was was was was strong from people signed. A letter was that they did see that as one with things that really is at issue that we have to be criticized. We're happy to have this debate out on. Twitter in s feels. Tom's possible will win the response to disagreement about a topic response to this agreement about the question for speech is a letter. Two bosses that says that the welcome by has come unsaved hostile because of. That letter, and that absolutely chills free speech and I recognize that Emma. Listen I want. This is where I want to push it. Okay good because. I want to take the point. Because I agree that it is important that people are able to debate things. Dot literally everything but but most things. But the place where I wanna the place where I think this gets very complicated, and we're not gonNA. Solve It on this podcast, but I WANNA flag it. Because I like have been talking black people on both sides of this argument, both for my internal professional reasons than for my my journalistic reasons and Again going a little bit to the Tom Cotton situation as well. It is the case that words effect. The environments in which people live it is the case of political coalitions effect the environments in which people live, and sometimes what this debate can feel like is a bunch of folks saying. Hey, look you've created a like somewhat vague chilling effect and we need to take that super seriously when you use these words and somebody else like says like in my life, these are what these words actually mean what they tangibly become. And what said to them like? How dare you like try to debate that? How dare you try to like have that? I recognize the way you weed those words right. I hear you when you say the way you read. Those words is not even though I read them. It's like it say it's trying to boost something where it can. No longer like nobody can sign a letter that is vague in its intentions, and like it's it's. It's things off a debate, but I actually think a more nuanced point is being made here like I think a debate is trying to be had about like. What are the conditions under which trans people can speak and can live safe lives. Not just health, save speech, but live save lives and I worry sometimes a pretty real and direct way that the reaction to people speaking about the. Stakes. Of Politics, and punditry for them. is to say like is to close down their ability to have needed debate by telling them. They're stifling debate and I'm not saying it's not a complicated space for because I recognize, it is all use one other example that I think is a little easier years ago. When I was at the Washington Post Joe Lieberman, said he would kill the healthcare bill if it included a public option. And I said that Joe Lieberman was trying to settle scores the left, and that he was willing to cause the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people's lives to do that and I got a lot of pushback for that like lot angry letters like people trying to cancel me got attacked by people. My own institution say you know like and the argument that got made Rostow threat made this argument. Is that by making it so vivid by raise it by? By waving the bloody shirt as he put it, it made it impossible to have a debate to have debates about to bring lives into the conversation, made it impossible to have a debate about these things and like my answer to that where I sort of get the point, and I recognize like it's hard, if like everybody starts defaulting just like while you're gonNA, kill everybody, but also lives are in these conversations and I think that like one of the fundamental. To be generous about it, Miss Communications between the language used by people whose really like it does feel very direct in their lives on the line, and so their language is more direct and vivid and alarmed, and the language of people who have a little bit more, safety and security feel as reasonable and to me I would like to build more bridge there I think there's more bridge to be built, but I do think it requires then in some ways for like I think it would get the other I think get people more on your side of this taken more seriously by the folks barn more more on my side if there was more effort to recognize like this piece of it. It and not just dismiss it if this just becomes a fight between two kinds of speech like you're gonNA. Have the outcome we sort of fear, but who knows who wins whereas like somehow I think we're going to have to have like a more holistic understanding of the way. People are looking for safety and security, and also you put it the trade offs. That are there because you can't like. You can't just take away the trade off by telling people not to speak it. WHAT SO A COUPLA! Thanks for I is that you know in a very clear way at persuasion I'm trying to clean video debate and I'm trying to ensure that we hear from different values who are committed to. Society. From left to right from. Different kinds of traditions and and I said you hope to. Cultivate spirit of persuasion in the sense of. Actually engaging with arguments in a respectful way, rather than trolling or dunking and SOA by Soviets of one way of Nicholas. The second again. Is that really don't think it's you know I'm not positive. Civility police here. My point is not that we should all be polite or the timing, so that's yes racial half of the Suasion I think as you find for people to strongly disagree with each other in Germany! In a way I grew up a you're not allowed to call somebody and astle in your private life. Actually if it's not somebody who you know I'm not allowed to call a politician. You can be sued for that I. think that's ridiculous. That's ridiculous fiction of his speech, and so I personally tried not to pull people assholes twitter. I, think you know veterans. Buzzfeed is something that that we should tolerate and I'm not. You know so your example of sort of what you said about Joe. Lieberman I think is a perfectly acceptable way of criticizing somebody. For that position, those obvious stakes as you Sullivan, but probably in fact states. Answer there's nothing wrong with expressing baton of Amana, but I do think, but as a fundamental difference between saying I think this is a terrible. I think he is why that's wrong I think he is why that makes me unsafe. He's what it might cost. The lives of hundreds of thousands of people as said about Joe Lieberman and saying. For saying that you should be. A potentially fired for saying that you are making it possible for me to do my job. Full four full signing a letter with somebody who has said that. You are now creating that kind of Bob and bus two very different things, and for people are still willing to say that I think environment, in which might actually influence institutions, which people have justified fear, but four expressing abuse of people are going to be writing to the bosses telling them. That, they should be fired to telling them. That the presence in an institution isn't organization bets to have a chilling effect on speech, a benefit which would take very suicide. Here's the last time may switch is. I don't think the stakes of this attributable I I don't think, but this is about You know the signatories of his letter being able to say what they want I think this is ultimately about our ability to sustain a vibrant and honest schools that makes us Abacha. Ask rising to the challenge of his moment, but makes us better at actually. Achieving. A driving. Multiethnic multi, gender etc.. Society. Actually beating people like Donald. Trump so the stakes were mentesse. Agree I agree with you on that. I just think that. If, we do allow the chilling effect, take place if we was watching ourselves, but what we're saying, how is saying it? It will ultimately be a huge presence to the kinds of people who, as saying mccown White House. Sworn enemies of many of those values that we ultimately share. I think there's a lot of good places. Take this conversation and I. I feel terrible. I have to end it. Maybe? We can do around whatever round. It would be on this because the thing that I wish to talk about here that we didn't is. I I would like to talk about what I. Think would be useful. Here is sort of a code of conduct like I would like to try to think through what are the ways people should actually act, and what are the responsibilities? They should take on themselves to create the kind of fear that a lot of folks save want because I think that would actually be a really like. That's the next up to see people in this debate. Take on all different sides of it, and maybe we can do it someday, but but we have to end this one here so as always three bucks. I should afford about this hotter, but you know what I'm going to do I'm Jewish shameless. Pluck full the persuasion community because one of the great things, but we're going to do is to actually have book clubs where leading I in writers in personalities I'm discuss books with a group so. Some of the great ones where we have coming up is an affable unhugged. New Book. On on the set of a time to democracy, we have Gary Kasparov. On a wonderful sort of a comic ironic novel called Bad Omens. And we have Johnson. Heighten Reeves one of the classic texts on this topic John Stewart. Among. Thank you very much. Thank you so much. Thank you for being here. Thank you to all of you for being here to Jeffrey, Gelb for producing diversity Karma for researching. Show is Fox media PODCAST, production.

Donald Trump twitter Harper writer US David shore Robin Angelo James Bennett New York Tom Cotton Atlantic Tom VOX media David Brooks Mazda America Modesto Floyd president
It's Unbelievable That Glenn Greenwald Fired A New York Times Editor Just For Getting The Chills

Blocked and Reported

53:07 min | 8 months ago

It's Unbelievable That Glenn Greenwald Fired A New York Times Editor Just For Getting The Chills

"How's it gone. Pretty good jesse but i had this like very weird dream about you last night. This makes me nervous but go ahead. Okay so i dreamt. I you came out to me as a pedophile. That here's the weird part. You were black way. Give me a second process. Say so it was. It was just me looking the way i look but with darker skin. Yeah you the same hair were. you're a black pedophile. Rusi jewelry hair. But i was black. And i was reading and i defended you. You came out you came out to like me and all of my neighbors for some reason and everybody was really appalled by guys. Don't be racist. So industry i get on a plane. Jfk i fly across the country midway my skin. Changes color ironic at your neighborhood and decide. The first thing. I'm gonna do to come out as a pedophile is to inform you and your neighbors. Yeah i can only imagine that this was prescient somehow anything they would you like to tell it. Tell the podcast listeners. Identify as white as racist stupid. So i guess in some fuzzy sense as i said before. We're all. We're all africa if you go back far enough that is true. That is true. And there's something else i wanted to talk to you about. Go ahead also. You know that we have this merch store dot org we do so we have been threatening to close down the store because the more stores and actually doing very well but i had an idea for how to maybe rejuvenate the merge store little bit instead of shutting it down as long as it's less offensive than the pedophile thing. I'm all ears. I think. I think you'll like this. One better okay. Picture this in airbrushed t shirt like the kind that you get at a fair or maybe like coney island or something like that and is this gorgeous photo. This gorgeous image of horse with a long flowing mane and then in cursive script. It says jesse's girl you know. I had a feeling you were going in that direction Yes i think for for the purposes of this yes. That'd be incredible. It'd be highly erotic if any of our listeners wanna go ahead and create that shirt send me the image. What's what's it. This is blocked in reported. And i'm katie herzog single and today we're talking about what are we talking about. We're gonna talk about stark's yes stocks. People make their money. That's right and glenn greenwald. Why don't we start with. Do you understand songs. can you like you. I think we should preface this by saying like this is going to be a fairly short segment because we'll see how long it actually is but neither one neither one of us. Despite the fact that you're jewish has any idea how the stock market works. She's yeah you can't build a fence. Fuck you i built. I built half of offense then hired someone to build the other actually embraces serotypes. A stark is a unit of ownership in a company. Right and you can buy it and then it goes up or down and sideways through time. Yeah i think you want to buy low and sell high. That's the basic rule. No i think you have that backwards. Okay so by and sella shorting it. That's what you do and you can short a stock by saying i think it's values can go down and if it does i get money and stunks argest. They exist in this. If you're a finance professor econ professor and you want to use any of this please clear it with us. I but stocks are just these these point in space and time that go up or down depending on market forces and you can make money by investing in stock low and selling your sankai so far. You're with me right more or less okay. So game stop is a video game company that should exist anymore any by any conceivable standard of what should and shouldn't exist just shouldn't because most people buy video games online download them games opposite brick and mortar operation sell stores. It's dunks were low for a long time. A pretty low and all these experts where like i bet is. We're gonna short it. I bet the song go even lower but then a bunch of fucking nerds on reddit. We're like what if we bought a lot of stockton enforce the price higher. Which is something called the short squeeze and that other people will have to buy it as it goes up to to lose less money for reasons which can make it higher and in short. That's what happens and as we record game. Stop is thousands. And thousands of percentage points up from where it was right right so this hedge fund and i'm not entirely sure what a hedge fund is. It has something to do with rich people putting their money into into the stock markets. But also there are some like pensions and endowments that invest in hedge funds. But it's not something like lowly podcasters like us probably would not be investing in funds. This is pretty much like rich person. A pension in an endowment thing right edge are for fancy people right and hedge funds are bad as far as like at least in this situation. We don't like hedge funds. No although i think you asked us online but it sometimes the case that if your pension is like poorly run won't pension sometimes invest in headphones. I don't even know that if it's a poorly run thing i mean it might be a good investment you know. They're like the case of bernie madoff a hedge fund. A bunch of people lost money and it wasn't just billionaires who lost money on that it was also like mom and pop investors. I don't know about these particular. Hedge funds melvin capital. And the other one. I don't remember the other ones. The people shorting game stop. Were definitely themselves fancy. I guess the question. I had seen what is us like. How much collateral damage could ensue. Because of what happened which the stock is for now through the and so the thing that the hedge funds were doing made sense because game. Stop as you really should. Not be performing. Well it's like a blockbuster or a tower records it's antiquated it. Existed malls mostly So so game subs. Valuation was low for good reason. Which is that. The company is is failing because of market forces. Yeah yeah and so a bunch of very sort of seemingly online. Well okay so. I was gonna say online populists but it's not like the salt of the earth people who are wall street bets. Were this started. These are like you know. In some cases people have money themselves with the point. Is they all band together. And they're like we're just going to buy the shit out of game stop right right right. As far as i know. That's what happened to make some money. Also do some damage these hedge fund astles which the so i spoke to a guy yesterday and he explained it to me like this. The people who are really going to be hurt by those are the people who run the hedge fund. Because they're gonna they've lost billions of dollars for their clients so they look terrible. But also the people who have invested in these hedge funds which could potentially also include like some small investors in endowments and and And pensions and things like this. But mainly the people who are gonna be fucked here are two groups the hedge fund managers which is fine. We don't like them but also the the people who who glommed onto this at the last minute people like me. I went and got a. I went and got a robin hood account. I wasn't able to buy any of these games. Stop socks because as we will talk about robin had shut down for a day but the people who will robinhood hood shut down trading. You couldn't buy for game. Stop right so but for other people who who managed to buy this like game stop was at what like six bucks or something a month ago and then it went to eighteen so if you if you got in early you could and then you sell at the high point you can make a shift money go ahead and you buy game stop now while it costs four hundred dollars or whatever and you don't sell at the right time you could also end up losing a shit ton of money so it's also possible that lots of small investors who don't know what they're doing. Who heard about this through the media through twitter. Three reddit and jumped jumped on the bandwagon are also going to be losing their shirts on this. Yeah and the first thing any sort of smart finance person. We'll tell you after they tell you to. Just invested index funds is do. You can't time the market or like normal. People cannot time that market they. They're always bad at it because it's complicated and random. So yeah there's i mean this is sort of what i was worried about. There's also like if you on wall street bats the sub reddit. There's tremendous pressure to hold and to not sell despite the pressure to do so just like so. They could prove their point. Inevitably they can keep running up the value of the stock yes inevitably. It's gonna come back down because it is obviously not a company with. I mean the whole i mean this gets very philosophical. Who's the whole value concept value is itself question here and how wall street value companies either. Everyone agrees it's not actually worth this much. So i do think there's like maybe a small subset of people who could sell and make tens of thousands of dollars they could really use but are not going to because of some point they wanna make but i'm not. I'm not sure it's worth making a point for that much money right now. How much money you have to. How much money would i lose to make a point. I guess it depends on the amount of money and how important the point is. This point seems a little bit vague. Yeah if the hedge fund manager like fuck your wife or something that's might be worth making the point but i'm not maybe that's what started all. Maybe he did any game stop. That's why that's actually the reason people do think about sex. It wouldn't have had sex in a game. Stop do you think. I don't think anybody who has ever been in a game. Stop has actually had sex so this story is incredibly complex complicated. And of course because we spend our lives on twitter. We've been watching lots of people who don't also who like us also don't understand what is going on speculate about this so during the midst of this This like in pain speculation. Robin herd. Which is a day trading app. I think it's fairly new. We're just like average people can sign on like you link your bank account and and traits socks. Yeah i use it. Just for my index fund thing. Nothing fancy but it's very easy to use so you actually manage your own index fund manager. You just you're supposed to just put a bunch of as much money as you can in and just wait forever instead when the corona virus it. i sold. Which is exactly what you're not supposed to do this. Shows you know anecdotally consistently the stock market goes up because eventually bought back in overall. I'm up again. Just not as much as i would have been really. You're literally supposed to just put money in index fund and. Just wait and not freak out. And i was absolutely amateur but yeah i feel like you. Maybe you should hire someone to manage your money for you. That's what i'm taking from this anecdote. Well but that see. There's this whole thing. We're like a lot of money managers scam you. Because they charge a fee and if they're smart they'll just put money in your next funds. So like in theory robinhood democratize. Is that the problem is people. Try to buy individual stocks. Which it unless. You really know what you're doing you two should right. And so the hedge fund guy or the money guy that i talked to yesterday We were talking about. Why robin hood would have taken this step. So robinhood made it impossible for people to buy more of game. Stop as well as amc. Which is the failing Movie theater company. Which is also going through a similar sort of rutted inspired surge and so the the narrative that has spread online. And it's a very appealing narrative. Is that robin hood somehow. Colluded with these hedge funds to prevent people from from spiking this price even higher. So that it would. It would save the hedge funds and robin hood. The ceo of robinhood did a very bad job of explaining what was going on. And so this. This narrative spread like wildfire. And it's you know it's incredibly appealing. It's like this company is is basically colluding to fuck over the little guy which is in theory. Its own customer. Yeah yeah i mean. It's definitely complicated. And look there worthy oftquoted. Mike hedge fund assholes just finding assholes who seems furious that people would engage in these shenanigans. Which is sort of ridiculous when you you know to pretend that the world of high finance is otherwise. Noble realm where companies have real objective value and and people are trying to do good and produce value sort of bullshit. I think that's why it's so easy to root for the wall street bets folks right and it's so it's legal for a like a hedge fund manager to go on television and say this stock is is losing value to to try to drive down the price of the stock or drive up the price of some other stock right but apparently it was too problematic for You know a bunch of red trolls to do basically the same thing. Yeah that's their argument. Although i mean no one no one actually thinks it's illegal and the problem was robinhood literally as subsequent reporting showed they didn't have on hand the capital. So i'm going to absolutely butcher this but like the more volatile things are if you're robin hood the more money you need on hand just like in to make sure you don't 'cause a financial explosion. They did not have enough cash on hand apparently enough capital. That's why they had to temporarily not let people buy game stop. That seems to have been reported in seems to be seems to be accurate which which is different from the storyline that this was some sort of active collusion. But either way you can understand why people are mad about that because a moment when these assholes. Cnbc are trying to get people to stop buying game. Stop robinhood just goes at a dozen so it was confusing right and so i listened to an interview with the ceo of robinhood. And he didn't he sort of vaguely said you know like the sec requires you to have a certain amount of capital on hand. He didn't say we don't have the capital he really sort of. Obviously what was going on. However robin hood is also. It's about habits. Hits hits ipo so it sort of also from robin hoods perspective makes sense that they wouldn't want to come out and say we didn't have enough cash on hand to cover the to cover these beds. The the the money guy. I spoke to yesterday also said that. One reason that robin hood this was pure speculation. But one reason that robin hood have may have cut these people out of the market is because the stock was changing was it was fluctuating so quickly. It was so volatile that by the time you you clicked by on your app the price might have gone up and so in that way in that in that sense. It's a way of actually protecting their customers. However when robin had put out a statement saying we're trying to protect our customers response that is fuck. You know you're not. You're in bed with melvin capital. Instead all in i saw i saw you rooms. Online that citadel was buying an interest in robin hood that this was the this was really collusion and that does not appear to be the case. We don't books will be written about this so what we just don't know at this point but right now there's a very appealing narrative that like these this company. Ironically named robinhood fucked over these little investors sort of you know for their own ends. Yeah and i totally understand why people responded the way they did to robinhood statement which could have been clearer anyway. I'm religious in for the memes. I think he's hilarious. Say stocks instead of stocks. I anything that This is maybe an opinion of mine. But i just think like finance in the. Us is such a bizarre untethered from reality. Enterprise and of course people are still sore the ballot like the obama era bailout and people not going to jail so this is a lot of just lingering resentment that i think is totally understandable because in the last twelve years have not been good to working americans absolutely and this stuff is so complicated just trying to find an explanation for how what for what a hedge fund is. I was like looking up. What at what is a hedge fund. Yesterday and i have to stop and look up. The definition of leverage is. what's wrong. What is what does the stunk part of that. I wonder you know how how academics have their own sort of nomenclature. Every sort of subculture does but it. It does seem like it. Can you way of driving just like it's it's k-k-keeping. Yeah yeah i mean this stuff clearly. Like i've never taken a personal finance course. This is something that should be taught in fucking high school and college. It should be required. I was required to take fourteen. Or i'm sorry to take sixteen hours of like humanities courses in college. I was not a humanities major. I was not required to take a single course on like how to how to balance your checkbook. So i think i'm pretty good because i keep all the patriot money in a pizza box. I hope you bury it at least under laundry is that all we have to save out stocks because this was like this was an interesting example of like everyone's talking about something not to get better like we weren't sure how much we could add value whereas the story we're about to talk about. I think we just know much about. Yeah this is one of these cases where we talked about. Like maybe trying to get someone in finance on the show but this is honestly so far outside our realm of expertise that i feel like we would be introducing new errors chest by having the conversation. There are better people to listen to if you want like deep dives on on how this is working. It's actually interesting to think about at least from our from this nerdy meta point of view because there have been a million explainers about what happened. And i think they're accurate. The thing we're about to talk about this whole lower and wolf time thing. I just think you and i frankly can do better than most people playing here and be a lot of the players were inaccurate. So there's like some debunking for us to do right. So why don't we start there. Should we do an outbreak. I yes we will be back right after this katie. It's that time of the year agai- valentine's day. This always poses a challenge for me because as you know. I have a lot of female admirers and for thirty five years. We've been doing this podcast. They have always wanted to send me something special to mark the occasion. The problem is i am profoundly masculine intimidatingly so so many admirers often have trouble finding me a gift filled with enough manages to send me. That's why i'm thankful for man. Crates dot com. And you should be too if there was a man in your life who you want to celebrate. There are hundreds of unique gift options. That guys love like the flagship best-selling whisky appreciation crate with handmade whiskey to cantor rock glasses. Ice fear molds sweet coasters and snacks or the exotic meats grand bouquet including bore buffalo elk and venison jerky assorted salamis in a personalized pills. Glass that doubles as a bears. Or he'll love the personalized pizza grilling create with a pizza. Dough seasoning roller cutter and four pizza. Sounds i of course have my eye on that one in particular personalization makes special these man crates come emblazoned with his name for free. You also might want to consider. Wow ing him with the jerky heart a heart shaped box filled with jerky in ten different flavors like honey bourbon and whiskey maple best of all whatever man create you choose. Satisfaction is guaranteed right. Now get fifteen percent off orders over ninety nine dollars. Only at man crates dot com slash bar pod. That's fifteen percent off at man. Crates dot com slash bar pod man creates dot com slash bar. Pod okay so yashar ali. I think he's come up before he's sort of a gadfly. He's a gossip gossip he's a media reporter type independent journalists he. He frequently get stuff published in big places because he he's sourced up in journalism on january twenty first yashar. Ali tweeted the following some news lauren. Wolf who editor on contract for the new york times has had her contract cancelled after. She tweeted what's on the left will also tweeted. What's on the right. But deleted when she learned biden chose to take his own plane per two sources so the tweets she got fired for was a photo with the caption her caption her tweet by landing at joint base andrews now i have chills. She also tweeted the pettiness of the trump admitted not sending military plane to bring him to dc as is tradition is mortifying childish. That turned out to be false. That was apparently biden's own decision. So at the time of the chills tweet. The tweet generated some ridicule among both like anti-democrat lefties glenn greenwald and also conservatives after she got fired for it a couple of right wing outlets like the new york post picked up the story. The post sent a photographer. Take a photo for just like out which i thought journalist sometimes but i thought that was a little bit creepy given. That isn't a major story or anything. entered josh shahryar. They use them pronounce. Don't let me miss gender them. Yeah so they tweeted. This is the most important thing. I've ever read my friend and my family. Lauren was just fired by the new york times after the new york. Times was pressured by fascists trump gains in hypocrites on the right for tweeting that she had quote chills after witnessing biden's landing on the twentieth this tweet went super viral. More than twenty thousand retweets as part of a long storm also pointing out that. Lauren is a good person and she's done good humanitarian journalism. She has a dog. Oh g shit scold the dog or should gold and people. A lot of people quickly settled on two narratives. One is that because glenn greenwald had made fun of. Lauren is his fault. This of course makes perfect sense because if you make fun of someone on twitter you are then responsible for any bad thing. That ever happened to them. That area right. It's the law. Yeah it's a lot if you if you criticize someone on twitter they automatically of fired so this was an example like everyone who hates glenn greenwald which is like a big subset of mainstream journalism. Just like deciding. This was his fault which is insane but the other more important storyline was that based on josh. Shahryar tweet everyone immediately said that a bunch of conservatives and door fascists and who can tell the difference these days katie come on. They all tweeted to the times or emailed the time to fire. This woman in the times is instantly cave. That would be a crazy outrageous story. Would it not. oh absolutely. It would also never happened kate. I was trying to build up some narrative tension as as you're pointing out like the new york. Times is the new york every day. A million people get mad of the new york times and demand. Everyone get fired for any conceivable reason. The idea that some of the times would be like. Oh glenn greenwald and some maga- are mad at us. We should fire lauren. Wolfe just does not pass the smell test but this became canon very quickly. All these big names tweeted that as she got fired because of one tweet chill sweet and be that this was the fault of glenn. Greenwald and and trump gets everyone this and fascist. Everyone tweeted this. Eliza milano tweeted this like name. A journalist see tweeted that she tweeted it like it just it became. It was a creepy example of how twitter mixed up true just repetition right it was and it was also sort of hilarious because a lot of the same people who have been asserting that cancel culture doesn't exist all of a sudden when this happened believing cancel right right or they. They'll say things like why aren't the people worried about cancel culture. Why don't they care about this. I mean we did. It went back when our thought that she'd been fired over one tweet. I said that was ridiculous. And there's like a failure to recognize a lot of people are are against people being fired over like one borderline tweet on principle. They assume that when we say cancel culture we only mead. Left-wing cancel culture which has never been the case including the harper's letter and then this also comes on the tales of a guy name will wilkinson. Was that his name getting fired. From some like lefty think-tank because he tweeted a joke about mike pence being lynched center center left tank but yeah and he was in context. He was making a joke about how crazy conservatives are saying. This is a funny joke. Yea no one thought. He was actually saying mike. Pence should be lynch. She was putting out how dumb conservatives are about the concept of unity right now like you said the tweet was something it's been deleted but the was something like if biden really wants unity. He should he should lynch mike pence the joke. Being all of these these like people who were who were chanting lynch mike pence at the capitol. Riots yes he got fired for that which is crazy although he then started a subject which is going to do very well and i haven't read it yet but he actually has a piece up about how he thinks. Cancel culture is not the right framing for what happened to him. So i'm open to that argument. He is also someone who has who was one of these people who regularly was like cancel. Culture doesn't exist over the past year that we've been talking about this right and he's sticking to that story now and cancel. Culture is fuzzy term. It's clearly when we cancel culture just like a short handed way of pointing to various other stuff but okay so that was the initial storyline in the one. You still see people. Disseminating is lauren. Wealth fired for one tweet. And the other thing was like saying biden gives you chills like in the hierarchy of bad and cringe-worthy new york times tweets where whereas like near the bottom. Nothing right right. I mean i guess the argument would be like well. How can the new york times be unbiased. If they have people on staff turns out she wasn't on staff but if they have employees tweeting about how excited they are for the vitamin administration. Everybody knows that the new york times is in biden's gap. Everybody knows that that is not a joke. I mean that is not a surprise or like it's not a conspiracy true. Yeah we should. I meant to say this up top. She worked for something called the flexible editing desk. And that's like this. They helped run times live which is part of the website that's updated live so she would basically do shifts when it was having newsday or when they needed her she she was very much like like the equivalent of a contract employee. Though as will explain in a minute she didn't even have a contract but like she was not a staffer there which frankly probably makes it easier to fire her. And that's definitely conversation worth having is like i. jones gets fired for saying biden gives her chills. I mean come on. That went also never happen. No although with her. I guess it. The other thing is like a lot of newspapers still huge sort of outdated divider idealistic to buy the new side. Which doesn't have opinions and the opinions side. Which does social media's very much dictated by which basket you fall in. That borders been disintegrating but like old school newspapers times. Still take it seriously. You know the arguments get complicated. Because like obviously news reporters have opinions just like everyone else. I guess people acted like her tweet wasn't bad at all like all she was expressing was a preference for democracy over fashion but i am not saying she should have been fired or even discipline for it. But it's weird to me that people don't understand why the times might be concerned about an editor on the new side. Tweeting something like that. I mean the tweet. When i saw the tweet. I thought that it was embarrassing. And didn't reflect particularly well of the time because it was such a transparent endorsement biden. Clearly notifiable offense. But i did think it like this tells you a lot about the new york times. Yes and look if she had literally tweeted. i i prefer democracy and fascism. That's one thing but you know you could it. It's a vague tweet that you can interpret how you want. But it gives the sense of her being in the bag for biden which is or or other possibility biden has sniffed. Her hair is traumatized by it. That's what i thought. she has. Children creepy chills or she could just really like big planes. The miracle of it is. It is a does seem miraculous that you can put an airplane in this guy sometimes. I i have a whole ironic take on this but we can save that for patients dessert. Or maybe she's just like air force bases all liberal. Times editors do all five year old boys a new york. Times would be funny if this was. This was all retire of misunderstanding. She's just like really fixated on airplanes. Okay we should laugh. She did lose your job. Okay so it will not surprise you to find out things where at least a little bit more complicated in this. So basically what happened is i heard from time. Staffer and i talked to this staffer on the phone and this staffer gabe version of the story. Very very different from the one that was disseminating online. This staffer is giant news organization. The staffers not particularly close to solve. But this staffer heard from someone. You know this is second or third hand but just a very different story and his story that jibes much more cleanly with her being fire. Well let let's pause here for a second when you first saw yashar tweet or the viral thread that she was fired for one tweet. What was your initial thought because big institutions are still so shitty at responding to online outrage. I initially believed that storyline. More or less. I didn't really think about. It's just like i also. It was advantageous. Because in some like. I'm a bad person. Says because it was an example of like look you should be worried about people getting fired over tweet. You can't be in favor of this did you. Did you not think it was legit. If you recall. I message you immediately and i said i wonder what else is going on luke. Point to her on this one. I'm just. I'm skeptical of fucking everything that i read on twitter. I also thought like well in some ways this is sort of know as terrible as but from a purely tribal perspective will this is. This is some ammunition for my team. Which is the cancel culture israel and is a problem but i also my initial thought was like there's no fucking way. The new york times require somebody over this tweet. We don't hear not problematic. We don't care how many lives are ruined as long as our team has ammunition. That's what it comes exactly. It's all about twitter. Wars right so like i got permission from this time staffer to attributed to stafford. But it's not a time. Staffer that close to the situation. And i would feel bad and gossipy sort of revealing details aid. The details aren't salacious. She didn't like murder someone who just it was just like there was more conflict with her employer before this. That's the gist of it. Be we know from reporting and from her own admission that in her claim one other time she got a casual warning. 'cause she had tweeted about god. How not wearing masks is toxic. Masculinity you understand why she had a tweet that you can't keep such an insight to yourself it's too important absolutely but that also seems like something that the new york times would endorse. Well i guess not on the new side of yet or not. If you're like a a lower to your contractor but in her claim i forget vanity fair in washington. Post both had stories about this willing to. I know you need to be aka. But can you give us any insight to like. Was this like twitter. Behavior that resulted in her firing or stuff in office or totally offline. Can you give us any more. Specific sense of a what. What happened was mostly centered on twitter. She probably tweeted supportive. Jk rollings didn't tell she's a big big turf so basically what happened was like i sent her a note and i presented this stuff i had heard to her. She wanted to comment. She wanted to speak on background. So i can't say the specifics of what she said other than that she. She didn't really disagree with most of this but she presented in a different light. Like it shouldn't surprise anyone that the new york times version is a little bit more critical of her cast her in a worse light her version. Casta times worse light. That's that's a dispute. That's conflict what she did. Say i could say that. A she didn't have a contract. Everyone from the first year shark tweets that her contract had been cancelled. She wasn't on contract. It was like an informal arrangement and be. She told me she did not know if there had been any right wing campaign to get her fired and then she when i said that in distributor. She's retweeted it so then she got not only fired. She got canceled for retweeting. You know by people like how that monster But like this is sort of a big deal everybody. Everybody tweeted that right wing campaign was fired. I saw some conservatives. I've looked people calling for it or be fired in my community. You have not seen it. No one's presented evidence. I sent a note to josh. Shahryar asked ask them. Can you provide any evidence. They declined to comment. I think it was just like completely made up and this is sort of a sign. I don't want to do that. Confirmation by where i have. A theory that journalism sucks and then any evidences. Prove that but like shouldn't worry us that very big name. Journalists rely on just echoed this rumor without checking it absolutely had to check my own my own bias here because you know as i mentioned my first reaction to hearing that she was fired was that it was bullshit and is that because you know my own bias against the new york times It totally could be matt welsh from the fifth column. Podcast and reason magazine had an interesting thread nut in response to this but it might have been in response to the to the will wilkinson thread saying you know. I've i've seen these these online campaigns. Before when i've had some inside knowledge about the firing and oftentimes there's something going on in the background that we don't know about and which is obviously that makes total sense. You know and i had to think about my about it for a second like remember. The david shore firing when david shore an analyst was fired from some democratic think tank for apparently over over tweet. My first instinct wasn't to say well you know. Maybe there was something else going on in the background. My first instinct was to push to believe it. I think it turns out that that was true because the company didn't the company that fire the think tank. That fired him. Didn't they confirm at some point. So yeah yasha who. Atlantic contributor started persuasion he reported on that the civis analytics they initially said he wasn't fired over one tweet then they asked yasha to let them retract that statement which basically acknowledges he was fired over one the times put out a statement saying we would never fire someone over one tweet which a one tweet that could mean tweets three tweets. That's one thing but a lot of people. This is the point. You're getting to a lot of people were like well. It's unfair for them to say that back not give more details but from an hr perspective you can't to spill. She could have done something bad. And you're not. You're not allowed to say i. A friend of mine works in sort of like a higher up. Roll like a big organization in what he said happens. Is people get fired. And then they talk shit about their employer within the ecosystem of the industry. This person's in they say they were fired unfairly. But the problem is like if you're the employer you you can't say that they got fired 'cause they were bad or they did something which i'm not saying is is the case with lauren wolfe. But like the point is the fact that the times won't give a specific reason is not evidence of anything that's just employers. Don't do that right. But if you looked at the responses to the tweets it was you know a bunch of people saying like fuck. That's not true but this is like this is true. Employers hands are tied when it comes to publicly talking about hr issues and some some recently have have sorted like starting to step out a little bit on that but like at the stranger. I mentioned this on twitter but at the stranger a couple of years ago. There was a freelancer who was fired from the paper. For a couple of reasons. The main reason was that she was a bad writer and she was hard to work with by editor laker. The other reason was that she was shit talking the paper on facebook and on twitter which everybody could see and after she was fired. She tweeted that she quit because they continue to employ me. My response to that was to call bullshit on twitter. I got talking to and i had to delete the tweet because obviously the company cannot comment even if it was me and not the publisher or the official voice of the paper doing it. My my boss told when she got fired and then said she quit because they wouldn't fire you. Yes how do i forget. And you won't say her name on. I actually can't even remember her name. That's how bad a writer she was. It was not people when people hear this. They think i'm talking about jomo luo because she also said that she quit the paper because she was a freelancer. She said that she quit writing for the paper. Because me it was not joma. It was a freelance food credit. Whose name. I actually can't remember what a horrible person i mean you get fired and then you say well i didn't want to because katie hers and i had never had any interaction with her either. As far as i know like i never met her. I will say like my overall take. The time is not a coup yourself. Well it certainly gave the impression. They fired her over these tweets. Maybe there's more maybe there isn't but like this is a good example of why you don't have to tweet and there's this assumption i have to. You don't have. I have you have to you. Don't have to you. Don't have to share your opinion. You don't have to share how you feel when the plane lands. You don't have to share how you feel about. The mass are plenty of other people doing that. I have had bosses and editors tell me not to tweet about this or that or deleted tweet. I i am very pro. Employees especially situation really don't have protections but like if your bosses tell you not to tweet about something you might just have to not tweet about stop. The in the in the grand scale of things employers are forced to do or not do. This is not a major imposition. I feel like it is. I think it gets complicated. Because let's say you're tweeting about something. Let's say journalists. Let's say that you work at the local walmart and you're tweeting about something out after hours away things that your employer should be able to control your communication outside of outside of work. I don't it's a little different when it comes to journalism. Because you are you're influencing the how people see the paper and if the paper has the facade of being neutral and you're saying something like fuck donald trump. I love joe biden. Joe biden can can come over and see the my better whatever. well obviously. That's going to have an impact on how people view your coverage. She wasn't a writer for the times. So i think it's slightly different like she was previously but this time round right right. She was an editor and not a name not known quantity. Obviously it was a fucking embarrassing tweet. And she shouldn't have done it but also obviously also like that one tweet should not have been a fireball offense and if they were you know if if contractors are freelancers issues hitting a contractor freelancers had had better work which actions this wouldn't happen. Yeah yeah i should be clear like an employer firing you for tweeting something totally unrelated to your job or at a minimum wage job. I think is always ridiculous. I mean more like you know if you work for a big investment firm and you write something critical about that investment firm. They might not like that or about something. Like a another organization. Your organization's closely linked to those are just like sacrifices. You make to have a job. Everyone has to make some sacrifice or another job except for us we can do whatever the fuck we want right. I mean it is not. It is not an like a new principle that you should only shit talk your boss with like not in not in iran hearing range of your boss's office right like you have to be smart about this stuff Obviously like there are going to be employers are like have to make rules about this shit. Because an i feel sort of them because i wonder how much like. Hr departments now have to deal with fucking social media something that they didn't have to deal with that all like ten years ago. Yeah anyway but that's really problems. Cleanse the head of hr at the new york times situation is particularly bad because it seems like i think they just have no. Their standards are written v. Very vaguely in a way. Where like you could see. A million tweets qualifying and getting people in trouble. But right as we've seen like if you work at the time you can vary openly bash other people. As long as they're on the wrong team. I mean the whole berry wise thing public radio any public radio institution or or public media. Institution has a very strict ethics codes when it comes to social media one that i actually agree with because i think. Especially when you're publicly funded the you've got to keep up the appearance of being neutral. Npr's actual content is so biased. Lately that i don't know how much social media is going to change anybody's opinions because you can just radio here vices. But like i got in trouble for. I hosted a show for our local public public television station for for a while. And i got in trouble because i tweeted something about how donald trump look like a smash pumpkin. I deleted it because they were right. I'd sign the contract and the contracts released. It says it spells out like you you cannot partake activism online or in person and you know if you sign the contracts. I think that be pissed off when you if you get reprimanded for it. Yeah i mean you should. You should have changed your handle to fired for truth and made a big. That was actually fired. The show got cancelled. Because it wasn't very good. I don't think that had anything to do with my tweets was more because i'm not a very good host. There is this idea like that that for example you know if a journalist participates in black lives matter march that that shouldn't be seen as any sort of obstacle to them covering that stuff and i you know maybe i'm sort of a stodgy old school traditionalist but i disagree with that and i think pete the way people frame in his often disingenuous because they'll be like oh so you're saying they're not allowed to say black lives matter just like you say just like with long wolf o. So you're saying she's not allowed to prefer. Democracy to fashion is like well. No the problem. Is she saying a particular administration she may have to edit stories about gives her chills and similarly someone marches with black lives matter that's at one particular activist movement. It's not they. Don't get to embody the entire concept of of thinking black lives matter so i- i maintain there should be some journalist distance and i think it's hard to know exactly what that should be but i think people have swung too far in the other direction from the the battle days of like fifty thousand foot objectivity and maybe maybe iraq is up. Maybe they don't who no way to know. I think that's bad. But i also think it's bad to have journalists outright activists. I totally agree with you. And i think we're in the minority on this. At least the trend is your minorities for us for marginalized. Just you know. I think one of the stronger proponents of this view. Maybe we should talk about his essay. Amir year later at some point but like wesley. Lowery has at hole in favor of moral clarity. Yeah and i. It sure sounds good. Who could be against more clarity. But but well i mean. Who's moral clarity. Are you talking about ours. Because we're the only you know whoever whoever us is are are more. Larry if you actually take that idea. I don't know maybe we should just like eventually give that call me do even though it's very overdue now but i think there's like actual problems with that and even you can absolutely be a journalist. Things black lives matters. Who's disgusted by police. Misconduct off also covers movements fairly and covers the police fairly. It's like the at a certain point you need to try to you. Know have a few feet between yourself and the story because the people seem to be the good guy sometimes turn out to be the bad guys and the people who seem to be the bad guy. Sometimes they're not the guys that's like the whole adventure of doing journalism. If who what's the point otherwise do you think. There's any inconsistency or contradiction about being sort of a free speech purist but also saying like no. I think there should be limits on what journalist say on twitter. That's a good question. i think. I don't think including most free speech. Purists would argue that. there's no jobs that should have free speech protections like if if a close aide to president biden was just bashing the us mercilessly on twitter. Like they were like tinky that makes it harder for the administration do its job similarly at a newspaper if like you know if a reporter is tweeting stuff. All the time or is a conspiracy theorists. There's a lot of there's points at which your your work you have to not say certain things publicly and i just. I don't view that as a huge sacrifice. I just think in this case. The tweet was so mild even if it was a straw that broke the camel's back. It's just a really bad look for the time. Even if the story has been oversimplified a little what do you what do you think about that. Because you're a year even free speech. Here i am. It's it's complicated. I mean i think that if you sign a contract like in the case of of public media employees. I think you should adhere to the to the terms of the contract And i think that there are often times very good reasons for limiting what your employees can say sand social media that said like we talked about the case of the tucker. Carlson writer who was fired Because of anonymous posts that he he put online. That were apparently racist. And i was conflicted about that. Because this wasn't he wasn't posting this. As you know the voice of the tucker carlson host this was all anonymous And it wasn't done like like presumably Like during work hours. Louise we salaried. So that's sort of complicated to do. I think people should be able to say things anonymously on their own time. I kinda i kinda think that should be. That should be fair but when you're representing the company while obviously the company also has a you know the right to fire your ass if you're making look bad just like the appearance of buyers times political reporter had made phone calls for biden. Do i think that that and some essential level actually disqualifies him from doing good journalism. No but i would absolutely think the time should bar them from covering the administration because you fucking volunteer for them. It's like someone who seems very biased. Might be capable of doing good journalism but from the organization standpoint that it's just that whole appearance of conflict thing that matters a lot. Yeah yeah i mean maybe we should do away with appearances all the my the media is biased that we can see it in the coverage we can see it in the content itself. But i don't for some reason. I don't think that this is going to make people trust the media more. No and i do think like part of the reason glenn made fun of warf is like this is coming after the you know. Cnn's coverage of the incoming administration has not been good. brian stelter. Who does some good stuff like basically you know. There's there's a new press secretary of course and people are acting like she's not gonna lie when every press secretary. I mean it's just it's very credulous and you're can absolutely say. The trump administration was unusual in his volume of lies but also that like these are politicians. They are going to lie. Things are getting more. And more. Partisan and a way that i think is bad for journalism around suffer blocks and reported for blocking bar and again like i feel very bad for whatever happened. What she's you know she's in her forties and she wanted to get a full time job at the times. I do think she is a little bit of the victim of this thing. You and i are also victims of which is twitter addiction. We don't have to worry about it because our jobs are but like just that fucking poll feeling like you have to chime in everything like the. It's not good i. I don't think it's good. I don't think it makes me smarter better. I find my bind wandering toward twitter bullshit. I've been saying this for years. I can't get off it. But i'm you know. Twitter has ruined people's lives. Did you see that. She launched a newsletter. No i was gonna suggest we should be the third coast. Guess what it's called chills and yes. I saw the everyone have a newsletter thing is like i dunno isn't a breaking point when everyone has a new splitter stacked bubble certainly seems like it's going to break at some point i think she might this ultimately be good for her career sorta like more don again right. More again was a. She was a freelancer. I don't know who she was freelancing for but she was a freelancer and then she made this shitty medium analyst and then katie roy fy was going to apparently was Supposedly was going out her. As the creator of the shitty medium enlist in harper's and maura outed herself preemptively. And i had never heard of moya until then and now she's you know i don't know how was doing before but i mean i think she's like she got a book deal. She's published in the guardian frequently. Right right so these things can. And i think you and i are also examples of this too right so sometimes if you were in media if you were in this field where name recognition is is good for you sometimes ultimately these these like cancel campaigns whether or not this this This qualifies can ultimately be good for your career so she might land on our feet. Maybe we'll see and she's done some very valuable work with like you know reporting on rape in war zones like very very valuable stuff. I think she should. She should be an aviation reporter next. She loves planes could isaiah. The gal loves her some planes. I will say that katie rosie thing. The board dotted thing. That's another area where the version of the story i heard is bears no resemblance to this idea. That like katie foods chomping at the bit to docks more donnegan. I from what i heard was like different and much more complicated and does not cast just for the record. That was an epic shit. Show maybe even more than the the shit show over lauren wolfe. Maybe we should go. Like certain shit chose including jack smith to fourth or like where i kind of want to go back and look back at what happened. Like revisited and be like. Was the journalism on this. That good be great. We should do that. I bet we could get a get jack smith so fourth to to weigh in on that this is so stupidly provocative for to drop that like controversial cancelled. Dude like okay. Maybe we'll do something like that. At some point. Yeah well if you guys want to know who that is. Google we won't. We won't give the background on this one. Just to see complete models actually. Don't go him google. But don't read the jazz aversion reads katie herzog version. Oh yeah you're about this. Yeah i was the defender of jackson so forth that that thing. Where one of the accusers as she's whispering to jazz ville that she was like emotionally abused is talking on her facebook about how she just loved to fuck. The guy didn't wanna relationship that's crazy. We'll put lincoln the notes. Also you're the chief for the time and you want just come on and say exactly what happened lord woolf we'd love to have you don't be totally fine yes anything else on this katie. I think that's a okay normal housekeeping surf. You can always get in contact with us. At blocking reported podcasts at gmail.com you can join our vibrant sub reddit. I think we got two thousand five hundred people now. Ready dot com slash are slash blocked important. Most importantly we have a premium subscription service program. Whatever for five dollars a month or more you pick how much you donate at five dollars a month. You get at least three extra episodes of month. Patriots dot com slash blockchain reported. If you give twenty dollars or more you get a monthly shoutout. We're going to be slightly late on that so we're going to be doing that for our first episode of february. So if you're a perma band tear subscriber. You will be getting your shoutout. You'll get to in february because we missed it in january anything. Yeah ooh rate and review us apple. Podcasts send send katie mean tweets ebbs anything else katie. I'm someone air pressure shirt. Which girl on it. I'm so tired okay. This has been blocked reported. I'm jesse single. And remember glenn greenwald makes all the major personnel decisions in mainstream media. And i'm katie and also remember the key to beating. The stock market is to invest in your local podcasts.

robin hood biden the new york times glenn greenwald Twitter robinhood reddit mike pence katie herzog Shahryar Hedge funds melvin capital jesse robinhood Mike hedge melvin capital Lauren lauren david shore
S10 EP42: Hour 3

The Erick Erickson Show

40:46 min | 7 months ago

S10 EP42: Hour 3

"Hello and welcome. Erick erickson here. The eric erickson show the phone number. If you want to be a part of the program. Eight seven seven nine seven eric. Eight seven seven nine seven three seven four to five. Glad to have you with me. We got a whole lot of stuff we gotta do. And i want to begin by reminding people particularly those of you just joining us. I i need to recap something those. You've been listening the whole time. Bear with me. I won't spend the whole segment on this. But i i need their recap for those who were just in. Its that important. The georgia legislature has opinion in the house representatives. Hb sixty house. bill sixty. it is a measurer That would allow poor. Kids kids with disabilities by poor. I mean two hundred percent below the poverty line so the really poor those disabilities or those whose parents are active duty military in georgia. It would allow them to get school vouchers to go to private schools. It would essentially expand the george opportunity scholarship to allow The very poor those with a real defying diagnosed disabilities and kids whose parents are active duty military to get the best education possible for them essentially. It's a limited pool trial run. It would be used i. This is why there are some republicans who are opposed to it. It would be used to help. These kids get into better schools particularly private schools and there are those who are opposed to it because they're afraid if it's successful it would open the door for other kids to also go to private schools. It made it out of committee in the house and now it needs sufficient support that he can get a vote in in the house on how floor. The speaker of the house is in a fan of giving kids access to schools. But if there's enough republican support he can't stop the vote and so we need all hands on deck moment and i have an action center. I i haven't deployed this year and it's time we got it. We gotta do this. So i need you wherever you are in the state of georgia to collect your cell phone or your text messaging device and i need you to text the word data to the full number three three seven seven seven text or data to three three seven seven seven. You will get back a series of leaks from me. I'm not here texting you. I've got an automated. You'd be amazed at the number of people. Think i'm actually here texting you in real time. No it's a computer system. I use and they will send you back. Link give you text data to three three seven seven seven. We'll get back a series of links and the very first leaks has support. Hp sixty if you click the link next to that. A pta dot co that is my activism portal for my listeners and you will see a form you put in your name and address your phone number and email address and it will connect you. It will figure out that information precisely who your state representative is great. An email automatically writ. You don't have to do anything just put in your info and it'll generate an email from you to your state representative saying please support. Hp sixty. i am a constituent. And i want you to support it. That's what you gotta do so text the word data to three three seven seven seven and you can fired up brunswick has come on board those of you who are listed overlake. Oh cody need to get involved in this as well Text or data to three three seven seven. Seven rolm has suddenly engaged in this clarksville. You're doing great now Everybody across our listening audience except those who in southwest georgia those in southwest georgia. We need y'all to engages. Well we need across the an idea. Valia couple invite we need you guys to engage as well text or data to three three seven seven seven. Get our state house to adopt school choice for the the the truly poor kids in the state. We can show that it works. We can expand it. Now i've got a delicate issue. I need to talk to about a very serious issue. Foale disclosure. i'm not comfortable talking to you about what i'm about to talk to you about but it needs to be said there is a lawsuit. Jane does versus girls. Do porn twenty two young women college age. Women brought down a porn empire in california. And i need to explain this case to you. And i'm going to read to you from ars technica. Ironically you know when rush was around he and i would trade stories back and forth from this website. We both read it. It's a it's a tech site definitely liberal lots of stuff or global warming and the like But it has a lot of interesting stuff and we would oftentimes trade emails with links to different stuff we saw. I was reading the website. This morning in the stories is horrific. But you need to know about the story particularly if you've got a if you've got a daughter you need to know when she flew to san diego in october twenty thirteen with her friend who found modeling ad on craigslist. Jane doe seven believed. She would be paid two thousand dollars to do a nude photo shoot and that photo shoot would only be released in australia instead. She found a much different reality. Jane doe seven ended up filming a porn video under duress hotel room where furniture blocked the door preventing her from leaving. I jane doe seven found out. The photo shoot was a video shoot only when she was picked up at the airport by matthew a videographer working for the porn website. Girls do porn doe didn't know that last fact either she asked at least twenty times where the video would air before agreed to do it. Both wolf and porn actor. Andre garcia assured her the video would not go online but it would instead be released on dvd in australia. It was unbelievable lie given wolf's new zealand accent and the duo's consistency and telling the same story once doe agreed to film the video she was rushed through signing a contract and told we needed to get this done wolf and garcia soon put furniture in front of the hotel room door during filming jane doe seven said. She couldn't leave and scared. I was being coached. I felt like i had to do it. She said during trial. It was so hard. She bled. She locked herself in the bathroom. While wolfing garcia tried to coax her out eventually she finished the shoot took a shower but soon after the incident. She was harassed at work. Her video had been posted online while she only looked at it on one website. Others told her the video was all over the internet. She was too afraid to google. It she said was far from the only woman duped into filming porn for the subscription website. Girls porn her experience ultimately led to a san diego superior courtroom where one by one over the course of several months. Twenty two millennial women answered affirmatively when attorneys for girls do porn asked him if they'd ever viewed porn online yet in this fraud. Trial the women all claim. They believed the videos. They shot which were published. Among the library of hundreds of porn flicks viewed collectively over one billion times would never get posted online. How could millennial women living in an age. Porn is almost exclusively. Viewed online ever believed their own videos would never get posted to the internet. To start takes a thought out criminal scheme where the perpetrators were dedicated to levy. No paper trail but girls do. Porn successful manipulation was possible because large swaths of society still label women who participate in sex workers cultural pariahs. The girls do porn. Operators knew this and they wagered that the shame girls felt over a period in pornography would likely ensure that they would never take the site's management task for the fraud but the girls stood up for themselves A number of the men involved are off to jail. I raised this issue because this is increasingly common. And i don't know that most people are aware of it and i don't know that most of them think it would ever happen to their kid and what i am learning more and more. Is that the people who think it would never happen to their kid or usually the ones who find out. It's their kid involved because the parents never bothered to talk to their kid about it They will my kids smart enough not to do something like this and there was a story i was told so i. I did an interview with a woman who had been the victim of human trafficking by her parents and she and the organization. She worked with now rescue girls and they were talking about a situation in denver. Two girls with to the delta airlines counter in the denver international airport they were high school seniors and they had won a modeling competition on facebook in new york city. Now denver is a hub for united it e hard to get around about the country from denver to anywhere on delta because it's not a hub for delta. There are flights from denver to all parts of the globe on united but not delta but these girls had managed to get on a delta flight to take them to new york city for this modeling competition and it was the delta ticket counter agent. Who realized that it was a one-way ticket. The girls didn't realize it was a one way ticket and so the delta agent started asking some questions that it turns out the girl's parents really didn't know they were eighteen so it really didn't matter they were just gonna sneak off to the weekend weekend for the modeling. Shoot and come back. And they didn't realize they had one way tickets and the conversation changed pretty dramatically when the agent pointed out to him and so authorities were called while the girls stood there at the ticket counter and new york authorities were notified and they went to the hotel where the girls were supposed to be. By the time the newark authorities have gotten there was passed the time the plane should've landed girls weren't on the plane and the hotel room had been emptied. The girls were about to be kidnapped input into a human trafficking system that some people deny happens one of the problematic areas. That's going on right now. Is that there are some progressive activists as well who believed that. We need to overcome the stigma of pornography. And in sometimes you get The argument made that if people overcome their stigma get comfortable with poor and then when bad things are happening in porn people will be more comfortable coming forward. I don't think the answer is to define deviancy down into make normalize pornography but it's a real problem and i got to tell you that. Study study after study after study after study shows that the parents who talk to their kids about these issues and talk to them about these stories. They're the ones whose kids don't wind up in these situations. It's the parents who think that it'll never happen to my kid that it happens in these situations it was college age girls who found modeling opportunities on craigslist. They do this online. You know craigslist facebook in ads on on youtube that they stumble across jane doe number one in this case had completed her first year at california western school of law in san diego when she filmed three videos. She questioned how she could have been duped. She had taken the contracts course. The woman replied that she didn't recall. Seeing the contract issue winner. Videos were posted online at a website called the dirty. She asked him to take it down. Believing its publishing was revenge porn but websites attorney posted a public response refusing to take the video down arguing. Sheet agreed to do it. Jane doe one took matters into our own hands. She retained an attorney. She didn't message to other women. Docs dawn Website called porn wikileaks as girls duport models it see. If they had been duped. She began organizing. The women tried to confirm in writing what was being discussed and phone calls the us. We're only be distributed in australia. They refused the website. Then refuse to confirm it. The website tried to retaliate against them. Thankfully they had a judge who was very sympathetic to the girls and people are now being carted off to jail because of it girls duport owner. Michael pratt is on the run. On the fbi's most wanted list the videography. Matthew wolf is in jail awaiting custody. The actor in andre garcia is going to be sentenced on april twenty third by a federal court. Judge the videography for the website is also going to be sentenced in april. The website right now is being sued for two million dollars in damages for each girl and video as a human trafficking venture which it was. These girls were willing to stand up and be heard and fight. Education really really matters i. I wish i had more pleasant way to talk about this. Y'all it it's not a super entertaining exciting thing to talk about but man. Nobody talks about this stuff. Nobody wants to talk about it. It could be your kid. It could be mine. You gotta talk to your kids about this stuff. That's why i gotta talk to you about it. Too and trafficking is a big deal in. It's amazing the amount of intellectual capital being spit by some people particularly proponents of the board. And she's not really a big deal. It's overplayed its overstated. It's all political. It's moral outraged about nothing. Here's another reminder. It is real and the best way to combat. It is to educate your kids. Hello there the phone. Number here is eight. Seven seven nine seven eric. Eight seven seven nine seven three seven four to five. I would prefer you instead of calling me right now. listen. I'm happy to take your phone call but i would really like you if you can also text the word data to three three seven seven seven Look those you invite sale. You are starting to engage in. I appreciate it. Those of you in valdosta starting to participate as well if he got some folks in savannah participating text or data to three three seven seven seven. Look at all of you now participate. This is great We've got over two hundred people now who have engaged including someone who will they live in georgia but they say they're in chicago. So thank y'all this is meaningful i. It's something that you guys can do that. Other people can't and i just really want y'all to be as engaged as possible in this issue Choice is a big deal to improve the lives of kids. And if you text or data to three three seven seven seven you can tell your state house member here in georgia where i am that. They should support this piece of legislation. Now we do have to move on Have you heard of epigenetics. My goodness i. I've heard of epigenetics for a while now and it is always for progress when you note for example scientists have never been able and i don't mean this controversial by the way scientists have never been able to find a genetic link to homosexuality There are people who you know it is is conventional wisdom now that you're born gay or straight but it's also now conventional wisdom to pick your gender there. There's actually no scientific evidence and people said well epigenetics genetics. And now of course there are people who say transgenderism has a lot to do with epigenetics as well well. Here's here's a funny one. Now there are now people on the left to believe that trauma is also hereditary through generics. There's a i. I don't know mel magazine. But they have an article about epigenetics. I've been hearing this forever from liberals. When i say it's it's not science to say this you know one of the things and and One of the problems here for a lot of people is it really is against science a lot of the stuff and one of the things that is reality is there's no science to back up the stuff and so they say well up genetics. They don't really explain it. they don't really understand it. They have theories. But it's it's like the people who say vaccines caused autism. It's been studied so often and there are fringe. Researchers who say it's true just like i know people who believe as cure cancer put just because people believe it doesn't make it so so this mill magazine public interest in epigenetics has grown steadily since the mid two thousand. When the news media began reporting on influential studies in the field with tantalizing headlines like a painful legacy parents emotional trauma may change their children's biology and studying holocaust survivors finds trauma passes on to children's genes but the fields in its infancy. There's an enormous amount of scientists who don't know whether it's true or not and there's a lot of skepticism about it you'll routinely and cut claims that trauma changes your dna or you generically genetically. Inherit your parents pain and trauma but it does. It actually appear to be. So the oliver rando. The university of massachusetts medical school who uses mice to study intergenerational information transfers as quite clear the research otherwise. Hello and welcome it. Eric erickson here. The phone number is eight. Seven seven nine seven eric. Eight seven seven nine seven three seven four to five. We got people now. Engaged all over the state of georgia in support house. Bill sixty This is this is so great From really from the north georgia mountains to the florida line from the chattahoochee all the way over to the atlantic We got people who are engaged on this issue. If you're just tuning in house. Bill sixty in the state house of georgia is a school choice. Bill that would allow kids whose parents are active duty. Military georgia and kids who have mental and physical disabilities and kids who are two hundred percent below the poverty line To use state funds to go to private schools It is a major school choice initiative. Trial run a limited pool of kids not enough to disrupt the public education budgets in the state enough to give this a great trial. Run if you text the word data to three three seven seven seven. I'm gonna send you a link and in that link I am going to allow you into my actions center where you can generate an email very easily have already pre written emails. And they'll go your state legislator and Encourage them to support house bill. Sixty right now. We got over two hundred of you so far have engaged so keep it up please. It's great piece legislation. David shore is a progressive pollster. He interestingly enough. David shore got cancelled this past summer. He i mean he is on the left far on the left. He is a progressive. David shore is a progressive pollster statistician who got cancelled by the left for saying something truthful year in the wake of the george floyd riots. David shore said that the vandalism and burning and looting that was going on could help the republicans and it made progressives livid with him for saying something true and he got cancelled as result of jonathan. La- is an associated press reporter. And i want you to hear him on television in denial about what happened last summer while i think nicole first of all. Let's be very clear as to the different makeup of these protesters other people. We saw june versus what we saw in january and june. These were nonviolent. Protesters racially mixed a lot of young people in the fueled by the black lives matter movement. Those outraged by the death of george floyd a black man killed under the knee of a white police officer. In minnesota there was no violence there. The president instead cleared. Lafayette square cleared the protesters with using military personnel as part of the response using a chemical akin to tear gas pushing them out in order to have a photo op we remember his awkward stroll across the park and then standing in front of the church holding a bible as if he'd never held one before and then of course. Let's remember who was there in january. These were trump supporters. They were. They were people who as well documented. If the racial makeup of that group had been different the response at the capitol likely would have been different as well. I have said that. I think conservatives need to be able to distinguish between what happened last summer and what happened on january sixth. What happened on january. Six was two months of provocation. Premised on lies about a stolen election leading people to storm the us capitol overwhelmingly supporters of the president. What happened last summer where people outraged by what happened to george floyd protests in the streets. But you cannot deny as this report of this is a reporter for the associated. Press saying that they were non violent protests I'm sorry but a building burning to the ground is not nonviolent Pull people being harmed is not nonviolent to say that it was nonviolent is to lie about reality and lie about what happened. Yes i the george floyd riots were privileged on outrage over over police violence and not a lie. But that doesn't mean that they were non violent they were and david shore progressive. Pollster got canceled for awhile. Turns out he was right though in the left is paying attention to him again. And he's been interviewed by eric. Levitz in the new york magazine and the headline is david shore on. Why trump was good for the gop. And how dims can win in twenty twenty. Let me read you some of this new york magazine. Ask david shore. What are the most important things you've learned about the two thousand twenty election. What's changed since november is we now have individual level vote history data in a bunch of states and we also have a lot more precinct level data and people have had more time to run survey so the picture has gotten clearer one high level takeaways. That twenty twenty electric had a very similar partisan composition to the two thousand sixteen electorate when the polls turn out to be wrong and trump. Turn out to be much stronger than we predicted. A lot of people concluded the turnout model must have been all trump must have inspired higher. Republicans are now that inspected than expected but that looks wrong. It really seems like the electric was slightly more democrat than it had been in two thousand sixteen largely due to demographic changes because there's such a large partisan gap between younger and older voters every four years. The electric get something like four tenths of a percent more democratic just through generational churn so trump didn't exceed expectations by inspiring higher than anticipated republican turnout. He exceeded the mostly through persuasion. A lot of voters change their minds between two thousand sixteen and twenty twenty. Now listen to this. At the subgroup level democrats gained somewhere between half a percent to one percent among non college whites and roughly seven percent among white college graduates. Which is kind of crazy. Our support among african americans declined by something like one to two percent. Hispanic support dropped by eight to nine percent. The jury is still out on. Asian americans were waiting on data from california before we say anything. But there's evidence there was something like a five percent decline in asian american support for democrats likely with a lot of variants among subgroups. There were really big declines in vietnamese areas for example. What implication of the shifts is that education polarization went up and racial polarization went down. White voters is a whole trended towards the democratic party. Non white voters trended away from the democratic party. So now we're somewhere between two thousand four and two thousand eight in terms of racial polarization. Would that's i don't think a lot of people expected donald trump's gop to have a much more diverse base of support than mitt. Romney did but that's what happened. So the reporter asked does the available data gives us insight into. Why do you have any sense. What was behind the large rightward shift among hispanic voters. Listen to this. One important thing to know about the decline in hispanic support for democrats. That was pretty broad. This isn't just about cubans in south florida. It happened new york tap. It in california happened in arizona. Have it in texas really. We saw large drops all across the country but it was notably larger in some places than others in the precinct level data. One of the things that jumps out. Is that places with a lot of voters who have venezuelan or colombian ancestry saw large swings to the gop. More show than anywhere else in the country. The colombian-venezuelan shifts were huge. One of my favorite examples is derived. Florida durell florida which is predominantly venezuelan and colombian neighborhood in south florida one precinct in the neighborhood for hillary clinton by forty points in two thousand sixteen and then for trump by ten points and twenty twenty one thing that makes colombia venezuela different for much of latin america is that socialism as a brand has a very specific very high salience meaning in these countries. It's associated with farc paramilitaries in colombia. And the experience with president madero in venezuela. So i think one natural inferences that the increase salience of socialism in twenty twenty with the rise of aoc the promise of anti-socialist messages from the gop had something to do with the shift among these groups. As for the story with hispanics overall one thing that really comes out very clearly in survey data that we've done is that it really comes down to ideology so when you look at self reported ideology just asking people do you identify as liberal monitor conservative. You find there aren't really big. Racial divides roughly the same proportion of african american hispanic and white voters identify as conservative but white voters are polarized on ideology wa non white voters are not something like eighty percent of white conservatives. Vote republican democrats have one non white conservatives often by very large margins. What happened in twenty twenty. Is that non white conservatives voted for republicans higher rates they started voting more like white conservatives and so this leads to a question why why did non white voters start sorting more by ideology. And that's a hard thing to know. But my organization. My partner organizations have done extensive post-election surveys of two thousand twenty voters and we look specifically those voters who switched from supporting hillary clinton to donald trump to see whether anything distinguishes this subgroup in terms of their policy opinions. Listen pay attention here. this important. What we found is that clinton voters with conservative us on crime policing and public safety were far more likely to switch trump than voters with less conservative views on those issues and having conservative views on those issues was more predictive of switching from glynn trump than having conservative views on any other issue set. Was this lines up well with trends. We saw during the campaign in the summer following the emergence of defunding the police as a nationally Salient issue support for biden among hispanic voters dropped. I think you can tell this micro story. We raised the salience of an ideologically charged. Issue that millions of non white voters disagreed with us. On and then as a result these conservative hispanic voters who'd been voting for us despite their ideological inclinations started voting more like conservative whites the decline we saw was very large nine percent nationwide up to fourteen or fifteen percent florida. Roughly one ten hispanic voters which their vote from clinton to trump. That's beyond the margin of what can plausibly be changed by investing more in spanish media. And i don't think a shift that large can be plausibly attributed to what was said and whatsapp. Groups are not buying enough in youtube bads. The problem is more fundamental as white liberals have become a larger larger share of the democratic party. There's a narrative of the left of the democrats growing reliance on college educated whites pulling the party right. that's wrong. Highly educated people tend to have more ideologically coherent and extreme views than working class. When we see this issue polling in ideological self-deprecation pay attention here engine college educated voters are way less likely to devise moderate so as democrats have traded non college educated voted for college educated ones white liberal share a voice in cloud. The democratic. Party's gone up since white. Voters are sorting on ideology. More than non white voters. We've ended in a situation. Where white liberals are more left wing than black and hispanic democrats on every issue texas healthcare policing racial issues and racial resentment so as white liberals increasingly identifies. The party's image messaging. That's gonna turn off. Non white conservative. Democrats gonna stop there. Because if you've listened to me for the last year you've been hearing this for me that this was happening as more white liberals moved to the democrats blacks and hispanics move away. And there's an interesting sub topic here reparations. It is white. Progressives who are the most vocal supporters of critical theory. It is white progressives. Who are the most vocal supporters of it is white progressives who are the most supportive of a host of policies designed to prop up the victimized by already communities of america and in their embrace. Its knuckle go well. I must talk here about a very sensitive topic and it's probably gonna get in trouble. It needs to be said the racial biases that exist among certain minority communities blacks versus crean store owners black and hispanic voters in south texas. You're not gonna find white racism problem there. There's antagonism between racial minority groups. What happens when the white democrats in washington push a reparations policy where everyone is going to give money to the descendants of slaves in this country and the hispanic immigrant thinks. Why are my tax dollars going to pay for this or the korean immigrant. Things wire my tax dollars going to pay for this. Do the democrats really think this sustainable in see there being pushed in this direction by the woke white progressives yes it is true there are there are black progressive activists who are demanding reparations. But it's not really at the bottom line a racial issue. It's a white issue. It's a white guilt issue by white progressives and as those white progressives push the democratic party further to the left with their black voices who were highly progressive but not really speaking for the black community and more americans consider themselves conservative than progressive. What do you think is going to happen. The democrats are playing with fire to begin with with the reparations conversations deeply divisive in the country what do you think is going to happen though when they start taking money from immigrant families and say well we've got to give it to this class of people because their ancestors were sleeves in this country. Never mind that. So many people died to free them and a lot of the zimmerman. Say we we've dealt with prejudiced ourselves and we've been able to overcome it. We've been able to be successful in spite of the left. Wants to shout you down for making these points. They'll come after me for making these points but it's true. Do they really think it's going to help them. More and more data is pointing to the fact that if the democrats want to win they're gonna have to moderate on core issues suburban areas and eliminate progressives but alienate the progressives. You know who their really alienating voters per se. They're alienating to move to the center on some of these issues like reparations. They're alienating the white donor class of the democratic party and they can't afford to do that. this is why. Despite the media's focus on a civil war among republicans that may or may not be happening. There's real trouble brewing on the democratic side and many of them are defying the data. In fact many of the democrats believe that the democratic party is moderating because of the influx of white liberals. Now actually they're moderating because of the black and hispanic voters who were still there and haven't left yet. Hi eric erickson here. The phone number is eight. Seven seven nine seven eric. Eight seven seven nine seven three seven four to five. This hour of the program is brought to you by first liberty building and loan newnan georgia. I hope you'll check them out. I liberty g. dot com if you are in charge of financial decisions for your business and you need creative lending solutions access to credit capital Six figures above checkout i liberty dot com spin five minutes with them. See if you're a good fit They wanna help you get to yes with Financial issues were a lot of banks. You're saying no i. Liberty g. dot com Couldn't do it without him. If you're interested in advertising the program go to eric erickson show dot com. Click the contact but we are very happy to build a advertising relationship with you as we continue to expand Well the democrats have another problem near a tendon was their first problem and now it is the attorney general california xavier becerra the senate finance committee deadlocked on sending his nomination To a floor vote. An activist. group has ratcheted up pressure on moderate democrats of asira biden. Speak to lead the department of health and human services come under fire from conservative groups for his track record on religious freedom. Gun control support for medicare for all. The heritage foundation's heritage action for america unveiled to television advertisements Focusing on mark. Kelly kristen cinema in arizona. Joe manchin of west. Virginia the advertisement would have which will run in arizona. The other west virginia criticized the decision to pursue legal action against nuns over contraceptive coverage mandates at his support for gun control measures. They're pumping five hundred thousand dollars into the ad campaign to pressure mansion cinnamon kelly to torpedo his nomination because a divisive history and lack of healthcare experience. The west virginia advertisement targets zero support of california municipal ban on coal imports a senior. Gop aide said the advertising campaign helps break through the media Anything that highlights. His record is helpful because it increases. The price moderates pay for backing him which is very true. another senate. Gop notes mansion holds all the leverage in the upper chamber. No idea what's going to happen but it's a fourteen fourteen split along party lines. The full senate is going to carry the nomination. And the republicans could extract major pain on this issue because basirah is on the far left and beat on the far left Having the man really is crazy. He sued nuns for not wanting to pay for abortion. That's how crazy. This is also the guy who sued pro-life pregnancy counseling centers. Because they wouldn't put up signs encouraging abortion. That's what this guy did He's more far left than kamla. Harris was and it's man. They're coming for him. The republicans are the. It's going to be interesting to watch. Joe manchin this is going to be interesting to watch Lisa murkowski on howland the potential interior secretary. The there she may be obstruct as well. Maybe be biden's shouldn't have gone so far left with some of his nominees.

David shore georgia george floyd andre garcia Jane doe jane doe eric erickson denver georgia legislature bill sixty eric Valia Foale san diego garcia australia california western school of l Erick erickson
Cruella (Featuring Gerald From Two Peas On A Podcast)

Piecing It Together Podcast

54:12 min | 3 months ago

Cruella (Featuring Gerald From Two Peas On A Podcast)

"All right welcome to another episode of piecing it together. The podcast where we take a look at a new movie and try to figure out what movies inspired it and today on the show we are talking about. Disney's crew ella. Which is an origin story for. Correla deville the disney villain who skins puppies. Yeah this is a strange concept for a movie but as we talk about and joining me for this one is gerald from two peas on a podcast as we talk about during the conversation they do a pretty good job of writing the line of going as dark as character could be and also making it a fun film for families about a villain who in theory would grow to eventually start murdering puppies by anyway. We'll get into that in the conversation Before we get to it. I do remind you as always to make sure subscribed piecing it together. Wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also rate and review us over an apple. Podcasts or pod chaser love some more five star reviews. We rubbed lightning like seventy something of them now. you know. Just let's get that up triple digits. i'd love to see one of these days You can also follow us on social media as pie. Join the facebook crew popcorn and puzzle pieces where we continue the conversation about all the movies. We talk about here on the show. And don't forget about our produced by david rosen. That's me david rosen. Produced by david rosen patriotic where i combine exclusive and bonus and advanced content from this podcast from awesome movie. Here which is another. Great movie podcast. I produce For my music career and just from a whole bunch of other great projects that i am involved with lots of content over there. On the produced by david rosen patriotic. Check it out. It's patriot dot com. Slash david rosen so without any further. Ado let's get into the conversation talking about crew all right so we are talking about crew ella and joining me. Today is gerald from two peas on. Podcast how's it going gerald. What's up how are you. It's it's going good. It's i was off work today. Which like never happens on a weekday so that rules. That's why was like let's do it today man. 'cause it's it's always a good day when i get a day on that like a four day weekend. Oh you know. I'm in the restaurant business. So i didn't have the weekend off like a lot of folks. Did i had to work. I was off sunday. But i had to work saturday and monday. Sure and Off today and then off tomorrow and then back thursday for like attended stretch so yeah never ends. But what are you going to. I'm glad to have you here today. This this'll be. Do you think we should put on like a big theatrical affect while. We're talking the whole time. I think they would get kind of exhausting quick but movie too much. Maybe well before we get into crew. Ella is your first time here on piecing it together. I've been on your podcast. But what are you introduce yourself to our listeners. Here your podcast is all about sure david. Thanks man thanks for having me and your thanks for coming on my show. One to two long ago you came over there and we. We talked about movie soundtracks from whatever which was great but yeah. I do a fun top. Five countdown show right so my podcast is different guest host with me every week and they usually come up with a topic and we just countdown. Our top five favorite things in that topic. It's probably a percent movies and then the other twenty percent is mixed up between tv and music every once in a while. There's a pop culture like this week as we're sitting here are breakfast. Cereals or top five serials is on there but yeah it's movies music tv pop culture and it's just a different top five every week and then i've really been getting into the youtube space to some trying to pump up my youtube channel. Youtube dot com slash. Two on a podcast. You can look me up over there for movie reviews trailer reactions. I do a monthly. Wrap up show where. I review all the movies. I watched for that month. And i'm having fun doing that to not getting a ton of us but i'm having fun creating and doing it so hopefully people look me up but i really appreciate you having me man and i'm excited talk about this movie with it. Yeah absolutely i saw your your initial reaction to it And i i kind of have the same feelings that this is if not the best. Like one of the better of these disney live action things based on their previous properties. And i don't love the movie. I mean there's definitely things about it that i think don't quite work that well but there are so many things about it that do work and it is just a lot of fun i think. Yeah i have to agree with you. I mean it's definitely not perfect. But when you're comparing it to its predecessors which i know kind of the premise of your show to begin with but yeah it speaking specifically about disney kind of origin stories and live action movies. I mean i don't know if it's the best but it's definitely got to be one of the best just because i haven't been a big fan of a lot of the live action stuff. They've been putting out in the last ten years or so sure so. I thought this was going to be a piece of crap. You know what. I what i saw it and i love him known and emma toddler ainhoa saw it. And i'm like all right here. We go again. You know it's almost two and a half hours. It's disney trying to do something other than what they're great at. Which is just you know family animation. Sure this is not going to. It's going to be another dud. But in my opinion it wasn't it was really a pleasant surprise for and i agree with you. There's a lot of things that don't work about it. And i'm sure we'll get into it but at the end of the day. It's definitely a film that i enjoyed that. I probably will revisit for sure. Well there's going to be plenty to talk about about the movie itself along the way but i think we should just start jumping in puzzle pieces here. What do you got for your first puzzle. Piece for cruella. I i assume we're gonna have some crossover summit kinda start with the obvious ones. I've got a couple kind of like super obvious puzzle pieces sure and the first one is going to be. Malefic isn't twenty. Fourteen starring angelina. Jolie i mean is a very similar story right where we're kind of getting the origin of this disney villain. I don't know. I kinda wanted to ferdie on which one of the two of these you might prefer more And i feel like maybe recency bias might be hurting me a little bit. And also my love for emma. Stone is like very strong right right. I might prefer. I think malefic was well done and of course angelina jolie is just you know so easy to watch. She's just she's a really great performer. But this movie though. Was i think just a lot more fun. And had more reason for being kind of even if the direction they took was a little strange as far as like changing the character and stuff like that and making so many changes to who carell davila's but but yeah i think i think is as a puzzle piece has to be in the conversation. Yeah i mean there's a few different ones and there's actually a couple more. But i mean just like in the disney properties. It's like kind of. I don't know just jump to mind immediately because it's like they're both female. They're both of illnesses. That are kind of like you know. Their their origins are different. Like the reason they're evil is different. You know it's a little more. I'll say it makes more sense. Mls its case is far. And maybe i'll be able to tell you what i mean by that. The one major issue i have with kerala is that her reason for becoming so villainous. Just doesn't really really make sense to me. It's kinda ducked your which was my major issue with the film but overall i mean they're both disney villains. That are at this point in time and they had to start somewhere so i feel like malefic. Since a pretty easy comparison i- cruel is so evil that they just didn't know how to ride that line. You know and it's like they just kind of pulled back so much that it got to the point where it just doesn't make sense as a character but you could be right there. I agree with that though. I go to another puzzle piece here. I know we've got plenty between the two of us so i am going to go with one. I'm gonna kick mine off with something. It's not actually a movie But i think it's an important thing to get in at the beginning of the conversation here and this is more of a kind of a concept. A an idea weird puzzle piece but a nancy sinatra. These boots were made for walking pandora station. Show song after song that that would play after if you were type in. And it's an honor to these are made for walking. I didn't even notice the nicholas score. And i love him so much because the movie is just wall to wall needle drops. We've nina simone. Bg's the rolling stones. David bowie blondie queen. I think collider put out a ranked list of all of the songs today and it was thirty two songs. It's insane. it's absolutely insane. You gotta think about the music budget to that. They get all these songs. But i mean that's disney for you. Yeah this this movie is you could not watch it but just put it on in the background while you clean the house you know. Yeah you could i. It's it's like a jukebox. This vivid really is especially trace for transport yourself back to the seventies where a lot of the songs came from. So can i ask. You brought that up. Sure because i actually like the soundtrack. And i like the use of music in this film and i know you and i have talked on my show before about your connection to music and movies and show off your culture and that kind of stuff i like it but it seems to be a critical divide as people wanted to be a little divisive and a lot of people even friends of mine in the critical community. Don't like the overuse as they put it of music in the movie in replacement of original score. What do think cure. Yeah i i. I'm definitely a little bit torn on that. Because like i said that not hearing the nicholas propel score kind of bothers me but at the same time i when i got out of this movie and i started seeing all those reactions to the fact that there's so much music so many songs being being used in this my first thought about that was i think you guys are missing the point that people are going to love. This like people are going to love. Just being entertained by moving funds soundtrack the whole time. And i mean two and a half hours in a long time you know for this kind of a movie and that music. I think helps keep it moving for that. Whole runtime yeah. The reason why it works for me. I am a sucker for that and we not like. We've talked about on my show before. But i was for that. And your tarantino and scorsese In all these filmmakers that really have a a knack for working with the right music laboratories to put these songs in the right place and the right seen. I'm not saying. Every song in kerala like the scene wouldn't work without him. That's not what i'm saying But i think because of this kind of like punk rock steam punk kind of vibe and london that the movies taking place. That was a huge part of the scene of the fashion scene in london. Sure so if you in other words if you were there and you were part of kerala's crew or you're hanging out in london. At that time you would hear all of these songs. You know what i mean like. It wouldn't be crazy to hear these songs playing. You know every ten or fifteen minutes because they were all over the place back then. So that's why it kind of works for me. The only one. That's a little hard to defend. Is i wanna be your dog. Who had it gets a little. I really as thirty for. Maybe a little thick artie at bay. But to your point these boots are made for walking in the movie saw. That one fits was really prominent. Yeah no well. What do you got for your next piece art. Wonder if i should give you another one here. But yeah because i had a really too obvious ones ogling other obvious one out of the way which would be twenty nineteen joker with joaquin phoenix. So what if joker from twenty nineteen was produced by disney. I feel like it would be crew ella. A very dark character at its at its core and obviously for disney and being on disney plus kind of being marketed to families and that kind of thing and then obviously wanting to get the pg thirteen or lower rating. It's tamed down. A little bit right and it doesn't tiptoe around some of the dark kind of like mental health issues that we see in joker and then obviously we don't see you know the murder and the blood and gore at least not to the extent that we see in todd phillips film and i wasn't a big fan of joker i you know i like it. I think it's a quote unquote good movie. But it's i wasn't a huge proponent of getting oscar nominations and all that kind of stuff. So i'm more on the kind of mediocre side of that of that particular film but carell i just see a lot of those parallels to this character that starts kind of an underdog that you really sympathize with and over. The course of the movie turns into this really just disgusting kind of villain that you can't pull four even though you were pulling for them in the first half of the movie and joker was very similar in that way and then you know just like my malefic puzzle piece. This is a villain origin story very popular villain origin story. So for that reason to sure. Yeah i have joker on my list. As well i mean it's i think it's one that as soon as the first trailer came out. I think a lot of us were thinking. Oh disney's got a joker. Now you know they get this this incredibly evil villain character that they could try to make us sympathize with and show their rise to becoming the character that we know them as. And it's something we've already kind of talked about a little bit But just the fact that they're kinda sanding that down a little bit and trying to keep her the hero of the story. Make somebody worse than her with the the baroness emma thompson. And she's great by the way she's like so much fun to watch. And i think that that is the right approach is to make somebody more evil because otherwise it's like how do you identify with this person. And i think that's part of what people maybe had trouble with with joker but i definitely this is the the more fun version because joker is about as bleak as it comes. I agree you know in a s. y. preface. It was saying know if disney were to get its hands on joker and make that movie. What would it look like. And it would probably be very similar to kerala. Yeah sure i think you know so. I think that i don't know win. Development started on. Corolla gotta think started after the success of joker. They were probably influenced by the way to make it to because of how successful. How many awards. Nominations it received and it you know it was one of those movies. That was great for movie goers. I made a ton of money and it all certainly. The critical community also really responded to the war the war circuit did so it was kind of that perfect movie that was bringing in both now. If carello had come out later this year. I would not have been shocked at all if it had been in the awards discussion for the ostrich next year. But you know with a may release especially with the reaction. It's gotten yeah. I mean people people are really enjoying it and while you know the the snoot ear of our film community maybe turn their nose up at it. it it's It's something that's going to connect with most people. I know obviously with viewership being down. You know these past few years. I'm sure they're trying to get more of these populous. You know films to to get more of attention to it but I go another puzzle piece. And i'm going to Stick with dc comic book characters. Because i'm gonna go with superman because cruella starts off life as estella and just dyes her hair and immediately no one recognized and she. is this totally other person. Which is a hilarious thing. I mean it's great. Yeah it's fun. i mean. We accepted it with superman. We why not accept it here. You know. I have one that's similar. I think and why you picked superman. But i want to cut you off the so. Oh no no. I'd love to hear what you have there so i was going to say. Hear me out on this but when you with you doing the superman pick i feel like maybe it might make sense to you personally but i'll tell the listeners to hear me out on this sure but the next one i'm gonna take i'm going to. I'm going to my next pieces. My next puzzle pieces the empire strikes back. Sure all right. I had a feeling this. We're okay so yeah. I mean just really the whole skywalker. Saga really but sure to. To kind of niche it. Down to one movie. I would say empire strikes back because you have a situation where this orphan kid believes that the big bad it killed his parents right and then it turns out. Guess what the big bet is your parent okay. So that is the ark of the skywalker saga. And that's what i've listened to your show before. So i assume you're okay with spoilers david shore but that's ultimately what ends up happening with the baroness and how that whole storyline plays out with the cliff at the end and the whole thing so it's basically the same aric if you think of the baroness is the big bad. That really was responsible for bringing out this evil in kerala and even more so as an extension of what happened to her. What will just call adoptive mother i guess in guerrilla what happens to her and then the situation with luke skywalker and anikin darth vader. That whole thing. So it's a very similar arc i mean. I don't know that you would get a lot of argument from people if you think of. You know luke. I am your father. I is one of the most iconic movie scenes all of cinema history tells you of course. Let's try to mimic that storyline in some way because it obviously worked so empire strikes back a piece for me. Yeah i think it makes a lot of sense to To try to mimic that but at the same time. I think it takes a lot of balls. Just knowing everyone is gonna think like they're doing star wars right you know and but but i yeah i mean it it makes for a fun twist and i think it works within the world of this story i mean you know obviously if crew ella is you know has this bad blood in her where she could become this big villain. You know it kind of makes sense that this other big theatrical presence that's also incredibly evil with possibly be related or somewhere. Yeah so. I'm going to go onto another piece here and i'm gonna dig into the fashion aspect of this movie and talk about zoo lander because we have these two just constantly trying to one up each other with their their signature styles and looks and to get even deeper into it She basically does derelict. The the classic still enter. Look where looks I guess like a homeless person coveted trash and i. It's obviously so ridiculous in that movie and in this. It's just one of the many big over the top spectacles. She does to try to draw attention away from the baroness and kind of ruined her whole situation. It's it's part of the whole almost montage sequence of her kind of getting even with her and trying to drive her crazy but yeah this whole back and forth between the two of them and setting it in the fashion world amplified by all the music choices we were talking about earlier makes this big like high fashion world head to head and very very much like everything that happened with. Zealander i love that mentioned zoo. Lander i did not think about that when my next puzzle piece is going to be directly related to fashion though but what i just wanted to say real quick were on this subject though is. This was my main issue with this movie. Now if it weren't for this weird through line for corollas character development in this film i would have probably given this like this would have been like a near perfect for me if you take if you shave twenty minutes off of it and you take away this weird through line. Which is her wanting to one up. The baroness which for the last. Two thirds of the movie is really. All that's happening is that she goes to work for her to get the insider information and you know she like you said she's doing all these different things to try to take attention away from the baroness and it's like. That just seems really like shallow and like not a legitimate reason for her to become the carrillo deville that we know twenty years later in the story. You know what i'm saying like. This is the nonviolent version. Yes what it is. I guess but that was what i was alluding to earlier. I don't know if you saw that on my review. I did a few days ago. But that's what. I was alluding to earlier. That that just really was hard for me to believe really like you know like this is not the way emma stone portrays corolla in. This movie does not lend to what we know her to become in my opinion. And this whole fashioned kind of story lines fun like it's fun to watch. It's done really well. It just doesn't make sense for what we ultimately know that. She's going to be so i just wanted to mention that since you brought it up. Yeah and i think that's a good point to to go to a quick little tangent before we get to your next puzzle piece but in trying to something. We've been talking about here like the whole time and trying to like kind of water down who the character is going to become. You know i. I was trying to think of an origin story or prequel that just totally changed some major element of character that we know so well and i didn't really like come up with a good one here but it's just that's a thing that this movie really really does and i do think it's kind of like you're saying here that that whole segment is like the weakest part of the movie for you. I think just the idea of watering down. I think you have to do it but at the same time. I don't know that they did it necessarily in the best possible way right. I think that's fair. I mean i think it with with it being disney and with him wanting to appeal to families like you said it's like they kind of have to do it. If this had been joker like we were talking about earlier. They don't have to do it. You know and they can go the taxi driver out and just ripe have blood and gore everywhere and have there are rating and everything is fine so i think that i mean it makes sense why they did it from a production standpoint just from my kids not going to know like my eight year old son watch this movie and he loved it. He wants to watch it again. All right and i'm like dude. Chill out like we'll watch it again but he loved it you know. He doesn't know i mean. He seemed the dalmatians in the cartoon. And that kind of stuff. But you know what i mean so in other words i guess it's okay if you're not an old fart me that's going corollas lot more evil than just worrying about this dress or whatever. Do you know what. I mean so totally. It's like it's like you kind of you look at it and you're like god. She's rude right right exactly. All right well My next puzzle piece goes along with fashion as well. And i think it's another pretty obvious one but i'm gonna say the devil wears prada absolutely two thousand six and really because of the similarities between the baroness which you already mentioned was played to perfection by emma thompson. Who's an absolute halloween and talk about queens. Meryl streep who played miranda ended up wears broader. So they both have this tyrannical kind of like leadership where they have to be the best in their field. They have to be the best fashion designer and they're going to take no prisoners to get there so they're very ruthless in the way they deal with their employees and their colleagues. You know and devil wears prada. It's anne hathaway and here. It's stella played by emma stone. So it's a very similar parallel are in terms of In terms of trying to get that fashion trophy that golden that golden number. one ribbon. y- yeah that movie i think is a huge influence on this movie and i i think it makes a lot of sense to use that as inspiration for for the story that this movie is trying to tell for this particular character moving up the ranks of of the fashion world and having this the baron espy this fashion magnet. And and to use that because that is like the ultimate when it comes to somebody being the hierarchy of the in trying to work your way in and it's like kind of an impossible task to get your way into that world and i that that movie is so much fun devore's i've watched it in a long time but it definitely kind of hits the same vein it really is. It's one of meryl streep's best to and i love a ton of her movies now would probably put this on my top five. Meryl streep's just because she'd gets to play that just unsavory lie. I mean it's meryl streep you're like you're like this. Julia child the sweetest woman in the world. Did she just gets to really like eat up. That movie she choose it up and she just takes on a different role for so it's always been one of my favorite meryl streep roles to and you can see you know. I don't know. I haven't seen any interviews or anything but i would suspect that emma thompson borrowed from you know those types of performances where these these actresses had these of one offs. You know what i mean sure. It was very different from illustrate at the time. Yeah absolutely well. I'll go to another puzzle. Piece and i definitely could have brought this one up after we talked about joker. But i'm going to go with birds of prey and specifically the harley quinn character played by margot robbie and just this female protagonist with a whole punk rock aesthetic and you know going bad but also being the hero even though she's bad you know and leaning very much into the whole She's a bit much kind of thing all kind of attitude but but pulling it off in a way that You know. I i keep calling this movie fun but i think that that's like the main takeaway that you know to watch her. Go over the top and go evil and be so gleeful in is where the fun comes from. Yeah you know Of said on my show before. I i'm a huge proponent of margot robie as harley quinn even though i hated suicide squad i one of the worst movies of the decade of my opinion one of the biggest disappointments now with that being said birds of prey the follow up. i've loved. i thought it was great. Sure in fact it would be on par somewhat with my joint. At least for film like kerala but birds of prey also similar to joker where they had the r rating. They have the liberties to do what they do. Because it's not disney is not targeted towards families -sarily So it's obviously going to be a little more dark little more twisted. But i feel like you're right. I mean harley quinn and guerrilla portrayed by emma stone here there's a lot of similarities where they're almost like an anti hero you know. Yeah and at least in this moving now. Of course we know. Correlative is just a straight up villain eventually. Yeah but in this movie. She's definitely portrayed as an anti hero. And i think harley quinn is as well in the whole suicide squad franchise where and really in the comics too and cat woman. You could say the same thing about somebody like cat where it's like. They're bad you know there are villain but you still kinda pull form of kind of what's happening in kerala. Also because you know you know what plays out with carrillo with her mother and everything you do kind of feel that sympathy for her so it is similar in that way. I think harley quinn great analogy to use for her yet. It also helps more spoilers for the movie but it also helps that she keeps and loves her dog the entire movie that like really helps like soften the blow of what you at least think she's gonna become. Yeah yeah you're right. Well you ready for my. Let's do it. Let me get a few left field ones here. I don't know maybe i think of them as field ticks. But i don't know. I went through my blu ray collection and i was like going through him and had to stop. Say was plotted. Okay yes that kind of and this one really stood out to me. it's also a movie. The love which probably helps it also helps them just recently. Talked about this movie. In-depth s okay. It was fresh in my memory watching a couple of weeks ago. But i'm gonna go with black swan. Okay darren aren't sqi. you know. This is a film about duality right so now mormon and possibly her best role if you ask me. I'm gonna say it's our best role but people could argue that point. She's a great actress. I mean she's got a lot of great roles. But i i would probably go with. Black swan loved this movie man and aren't Hit or miss but this movie was ten out of ten for me absolutely loved it when it came out in two thousand ten and she won the academy award for that. So natalie portman is the classic story of the swan. Princess is what they use the kind of like outline for this movie but like i said the duality so you have the good swan who's dressed in white right and then you have this evil swan economy can alter ego almost dressed in black so correlative. Ville is literally split down the middle. And i'm talking about like as you see her because she says the black side of her hair the white side of her hair totally so and then we have the stella character who we know is pure genuine kinda sweet petty thief that her friends love and they just have such a great camaraderie and then you have carello when she takes on this evil persona that really takes over and it's almost like a split personality and the duality exists there to again. They're not going to be able to explore it from as dark. Aside as our nas key did a natalie portman did but the similarities are there for me. It really jumped out to me. So black swan is a puzzle piece for me short. Yeah i think that that absolutely works. I love the The analogy with the hair. You know that splits her personality right down the middle which especially with how how. She's portrayed in this like we we're talking about like more of an anti hero than a straight villain. I think that that That works perfectly kuhlman. I'm going to go onto my last piece here. And here's the thing. This is kind of a weird piece because the the first one is a movie that came out not too long ago so probably not particularly a puzzle piece but then i also. I'm going to mention a movie. That was a puzzle piece for that movie. Although i haven't seen it in million years so i kinda don't remember well enough to actually talk about it that much so the movie. The main movie using here is a puzzle piece. Is the new. Live action tom. And jerry movie. Oh interesting with one of the few people who actually enjoyed it. I thought it was a lot of fun. It was just really dumb very daughter but fun yet out. The puzzle piece was how to succeed in business without really trying both of these movies feature all three of these movies really features somebody. Who is you know trying to get in working at this fancy establishment and you know they are really not qualified necessarily for the job but they kind of fudged things. Make their way in specifically with tom and jerry. The main character played by ''chloe grace moretz is she. She's kind of a trouble maker kind of into light petty criminal things you know. I'm kind of like here in this movie. How stella is doing little crimes with her two little buddies. Of course in tom and jerry she ends up teaming up with and getting help from tom and jerry during the process of all the wacky. Nece that ensues whereas here. We've got jasper. And horace play by joel ryan. Paul walter hauser who basically are playing these characters like you could picture them being cartoon animals if this was animated you know point they feel like a cartoon cat and dog or cat and mouse or something. Just get into trouble and you know scatter away when when you know authorities are coming and stuff like that so i feel like there's a lot of similarities between these movies and the way that you know of course she's gonna get in trouble. Of course things are going to go crazy. Of course the big ballroom is gonna get destroyed. Which it doesn't tom. And jerry. It does here in cronulla sure So yeah i just thought that they go really well together as a as movies where somebody kinda liser way in. And then everything goes screw from there. That's crazy man. I you know. I don't know if you saw a black swan pick coming but i didn't see your time at gerry pick coming. That was That that's a i imagine. Nobody will. But i don't think so but that's a good one and you know it's an extension. You could really just say tom jerry period. You know sure. The cat and mouse game which really is a component to this film especially in that kind of middle like heart of the film. Yes absolutely. I love paul walser houser. He really impresses me. And everything he's in and i thought it was to your point. It was a little slapstick at times. But i thought they did a really good job. Because how hard is it to be on camera with emma thompson and emma stone. I mean you gotta feel like you're just like an extra basically. Yeah you know well. And and acting against their little dogs too. Yeah alright wink. The dog and i forget what the other one's name is. But i i don't know if they were all cgi or mixed the cgi but Yeah i mean. They did a great job of doing the like comedy bits with them. You know yeah well let me give. I'll give you another puzzle piece and then if you want to like you know i have a couple of outlier ones. If you want to or whatever but i wanna i wanna make sure mentioned which also lends to my earlier puzzle piece as to why i feel like craig bohl espy and the people involved in making this project were definitely influenced by the joker. Because if you're talking about a villain story at least in like modern day pop culture. I don't know that there's a villain more prominent than joker right now. That's the dc batman comic. That's not a disney story. Or whatever and i mentioned joker earlier. I'm gonna mention the dark knight here. Okay okay and the why. I think this speaks to my earlier piece of the joker to and it's just just basically just the lower of the joker. I feel like i could actually put here. But the dark knight. There's a scene when heath ledger. Which by the way was one of the most amazing performances ever in film. He comes into bruce wayne's fundraiser for harvey dent and you'll be comes in and like basically terrorizes all the guests there and then we have the scene in kerala when parrella shows up to the gala. And she kind of invades the gala and kind of takes over. Has the rats going around and everything. So she kind of takes over there right. And then there's another scene later that you actually already mentioned what she's wearing the trash all the garbage as address or whatever and she's riding away in london hanging onto the side of the garbage truck like laughing. Maniacally insure is almost exact. Same scene with with heath ledger hanging outside of a cop car in the dark knight. And he's kinda laughing as driving through the rain so again. It's going to be darker in christopher nolan's film right. It's going to be a little more menacing a little more dark but if you put these two split screen these two scenes i just mentioned split screen next to each other. And i didn't do that. 'cause i don't have the technology do that but i did watch him back before something on your computer. I could figure it out. Yeah yeah yeah. But i did watch these particular scenes back in in doing homework for your show and they play very very similarly again. You know the one on the left from nolan is much darker and the one on the right is much more fun. Like everybody's laughing like. Oh it's funny that these guys were swinging from curtains like but at the end of the day. They're the same scene and the same thing can be said for the garbage truck and the cop car to. They're very very similar and to me. That says that you know. Craig lessee or whoever was involved with with these storyboarding knew about these types of scenes and wanted to recreate them in a disney way and i feel like they did feel like they did a great job of making kind of a fun version of some of those scenes from movies. Like the dark knight and joker. Yes absolutely and you know as long as we're back on on the joker himself and you know one other point about him is you know all these different portrayals of him over the years the one thing that they kind of all have in common is go big you know. And if you're gonna play corolla. I mean that's kind of what you have to do is go big so i think there's a similar thing in the approach to actually taking on that character. Is you have to just go as big as you can be has that. That's what it requires. Yeah i agree. I mean larger than life especially the world disney you know and people that are tuning into this most likely i mean of course not everyone but most likely people that are going out to the theaters. See this coming come on at the end of a pandemic air so you know if people are going to go out. And they're comfortable doing that. They want to do it. You know so sure. If they're going to do that most likely they know who carell davila's you know they know about the story. They saw one hundred one dalmatians as a kid. Read it or whatever so this is the character that most people seeing this movie with the exception of maybe like may yields eight year. Old son are going to know who it is. You know so. They're going to expect this larger than life kind of story which also lends to the joker story to like you like you mentioned it definitely so you said you have one more piece that you wanted to bring up while just kind of list on my. I had a couple here man. Okay and i'll just list them and see if you know what i'm talking about your ago one is from nineteen thousand nine hundred anne or you could just say anti the musical obviously or anani so we have a situation here with the stella. There's a scene early on the movie where she's the youngest ella and she's basically a recluse and she's on the run because of what happened to her mother. She's running through the streets of london and she's being chased that's when she meets the to do's and ended up becoming her lifelong confidence and that scene is very similar to a scene that plays out an anti with a dog chasing her. And and then you have the whole orphanage and the orphan story built into it as well so i thought of any actually my wife thought of it. A wife man. She mentioned it to me. Sean hannity right. I am makes nice and then the only other one that i didn't mention yet is my fair lady with audrey hepburn. Okay another musical actually two musicals back to back there but this one is again. You have the black and white duality. When audrey hepburn character finally gets to her full like power up like she's you know this prestigious like debutante finally and she has to get up that she wears that's very iconic it's on the cover of the poster. This was nominated for a ton of academy awards. She won best actress for it. And audrey hepburn is the definition of like old school. Hollywood starlet shane. I feel like from a fashion standpoint. And then the duality standpoint of so eliza doolittle's character is the duality in. This case is not necessarily good and evil but it's like poor and rich right so when she starts out she's just very poor character. That doesn't even know how to speak proper english. And then by the end of the movie. She's turned into this debutante who's like perfect recipe. But she's still the same person obviously so you have kind of both. Both sides of that personality always exist. And i feel like that's similar in corollas respect as well. So that's why. I wanted to say my fair lady but that was all the pieces. I had beautiful. Well let's go ahead and do the finish puzzle and then we will get into any closing thoughts here. Bet for the finished puzzle for carello taught about elicit of these boots were made for walking pandora station Joker superman empire strikes back zoo. Lander the devil wears prada birds of prey. Black swan tom and jerry. The dark knight and my fair lady got a great list pieces here. Obviously from the worlds of comic book movies also disney stuff. Also you know. Just just big huge movies really. I mean this is a crowd pleasing kind of a movie you know and i think it takes big swings and has its sights set high for entertaining its audience. Which is the reason why. I think people are connecting with it so much but i do you have any late closing thoughts or anything. We didn't quite get to while going through the puzzle pieces. I think we touched on most of it. You know my my closing thoughts about corologis picture is that it was the definition of a pleasant surprise. I mean just. It really surprised me because disney hasn't been able to figure it out until this movie in my opinion when it comes to origin stories or live actions you know. Even as much as i love angelina jolie couldn't get until malefic movies. So this is the first time where i've been like the in other. Words is the first disney live action in a long time. That i'll rewatch I'll watch more than one time. And that's feet lately. But you know emma stone killed emma thompson the performances are tremendous. I love the direction. The film i love. The aesthetic of the film is very almost like nineties. Tim burton almost words like yeah. A little you know. Batman returns kauai dark in gotha sure in a way that could have been a good piece. That could have been a good one too. I thought about it as well but that could have been you know what i mean. It's a little dark gothic but it's still fun right you know and families and kids can still enjoy it and you know they had to take down for that reason and frankly i'm okay with the fact that they did that because i see the disney logo at the beginning and the whole thing so i understand where that's coming from from you know making money standpoint but yeah i love this movie man i. It really really surprised me. Because it's rare that i go into a movie and i saw this on disney pause. I didn't see in the theater. And i know you saw it in advance but i Went into this movie. Literally thinking i was going to hate it. I was literally like not even remotely looking forward to watching it and about thirty minutes into it. I'm going why. Am i enjoying this is like why do i write kept liking it and you know hearing more songs in like it just grew on me as the movie went on it with that being said i feel like it was about twenty minutes too long i wish they had shaved some off of it because then i would have loved it but at the end of the day i did really like it. Yeah i agree. The length is we. We've complained about a few little things here and there. But i think the length is the number one issue with the movie. I mean there's nothing wrong with the two and a half hour to hour twenty minutes whatever. It is movie but This one didn't need to be there you know. This story didn't need to be that long. But yeah i mean i went into it i think specifically for emma stone going big. That's what i. That's what i was looking for. And that's what i got you know. I think she's really fun in it Everyone else's really fun. Paul walter hawsers. Great always the best. He's so much fun. But yeah i think that about does it for crew though. I think i think we got to it all. Is there another movie. You watch recently like to recommend to our listeners. So i don't know. If i'd say i call it a movie but i don't know people are not seen as a movie but it's a comedy special from bo burnham called inside maybe heard of this. I watched it today actually as good right. It's so good. I'm glad you liked it out. What i would have said i love him anyway. So i'm a little biased. And but this one was so different. Because when i did my little youtube review of it earlier today actually i said it was a transcendent experience. And how many comedy specials can you say our transit experience but bo barnum filmed all of these different skits and music videos and like songs that he performed and everything and the also had behind the scenes camera setup all over his apartment so he just filmed like just a ton of footage over the course of a year being trapped in his apartment because of the pandemic which is why. It's called inside right. So he's he's on lockdown like the rest of america and he's a single guy so he's literally at home by himself just creating this. what in what. We ended up seeing on netflix last week. Which is called inside. But it's really great because it's really funny which he's known for so the comedy didn't go anywhere. The comedy is still there. But what i think is really just like beyond amazing with inside. Is that it really. He was really willing to show us. What the pandemic did to him personally right and it really shows his descent into kind of like his mental health issues and like the loneliness that he was feeling and how that was all compounding on him and then the pressure of making that movie was compounding on him and he you know there's one little scene in the thing where he's like. I'm not even going to do this anymore. I'm just gonna make this movie forever. Keep filming scenes. And then when i die they'll have all this footage like because he just didn't want to do it anymore. It was so taxing on him and the pandemic at the core. But yeah i mean especially if anybody likes burn i mean. He directed eighth grade. He was in promising woman last year but since he was fifteen. He's been doing youtube comedy. Bits and songs and stuff. He's he's just severi creator. Know in are really like. I really like him. I think he has a really strong voice in in the arts and it's all net flicks right now. It's called inside. I recommend anybody check it out. It's not for the kids. It's w. but it's good. Let's say that. I would definitely say that but But yeah it's great. Everybody should definitely check it. Out and Yeah thank you so much for doing the show gerald. What do you tell people again where they can find your podcast. While i'm doing this different thing. Where if i'm a guest grateful to be a guest on your show dave. Thanks so much for having me man. But i'm just doing this thing where i'm putting on my youtube channel trying to get subscribers and people to short check out my stuff over. There is really have fun doing that lately. I'm getting into video editing. So it's cool to kind of have an outlet for that but yeah the easiest thing to do is just go to youtube dot com slash two peas on a podcast. That's twa spelled out. And we do have a website that has all the links for everything as well including the actual podcast where you can subscribe to the feed. But that's just two peas on pod dot com awesome. Well again thanks so much for doing this. Show and If you ever need a guest again some time. I'd love to be on your show again sometime. It won't be long. It won't be long pitched me a topic and I'm actually lining up shows for july and august right now so i'd love to have you back. Let's do it all right brother. Hi i'm dietrich. I'm alex from the podcast. That song from that movie that jennifer the very best and worst of movies songs. We want you to join us on our voyage across the cinematic sound waves as we take a deep dive on a new samsung and maybe each week to figure out. Just what makes them tick already. We've set sail with selene on on. The titanic found a friend in toy story and got drenched out in the rain. We'd put castio amazon's kid. Hopefully each breakdown allows us to answer the ultimate question of what. That's it the movie. All the song off at least wins have been new along the way just like learning that toy story full meaningless cash. Grab without a so. You can subscribe right now in okla- podcast platforms if one of the bathrooms and that's so new and we can't be held responsible. Subscribe to that song from that movie right so i hope you enjoyed that conversation about crew ella thanks to gerald again from two peas on a podcast for joining me for that one and we mentioned me maybe joining him again on his podcast. One of these days. And i just want to mention. I recently updated our piecing pod dot com website. If you go to the link section you'll get links to every guest appearance. I have ever done on lots and lots and lots of other podcasts. I do guest appearances. At least i would say like three or four times a month on other people's podcasts. And if you're listening and you have a podcast and you'd like me to join you on your podcast Get in touch with me. I love to do it anytime. it's about movies or music or podcasting. In general i am happy to join in a good conversation earlier to talk about other stuff too. So yeah get in touch. So that doesn't for today. I wanna remind you as always make sure. Subscribe to piecing it together wherever you listen to podcasts. Also you can rate and review us on apple. Podcast or pod chaser. Don't forget about the produced by david. Rosen patriot. i mentioned at the top of the show. I do also want to mention really quickly that It is june twenty twenty one right now and at the time of this recording. We are getting really really close to fifty thousand downloads. Which is just so insane for this. Podcast i mean this is a completely independent thing. Something that i just do here alone in my room just talking to people about movies and a having fun doing it and it's just really exciting to see that people are out there listening and that it just keeps growing so i just wanna thank you all so much for listening. I'm probably going to bring this up a bunch because fifty thousands pretty big milestone so You may hear me talk about this in some upcoming episodes but his wanna make sure that anyone who is a listener hears that. I am grateful for that. So let's close this thing out with a piece of music. Like i always do and any movie. That has a little something to do with dogs or cats in this case dogs I've got to play a piece of music from my many times delayed the pup pups album for those that don't know the pups is a little comedy album. I've been working on for a decade or something now And it just kept getting put on the backburner on the back burner then. I couldn't work on it for whatever reason and then my dogs got sick and one of them actually passed away. One of them got really sick and we almost lost them. And it's just one thing after another. I have not put the sing out. But it is gonna come out one of these days. Maybe this year But the album is all these silly little funds songs about my dog. Some of them actually sung from the point of view of the dogs. They're actually doing the singing Also the cats as well and It's ridiculous silly fun album. And i'm really looking forward to putting it out one of these days but i'm gonna play a song from that and i think a good one to play for this particular episode is actually like a perfect fit for crew. Ele i am going to play a song called. I'm in trouble and it sung by my dog. Sadie pop who is the one who passed away a couple of years ago Ray when i was in the middle of actually finishing a lot of these songs and i was just you know really looking forward to going out there and actually maybe doing some live shows and having her and her brother harvey like be like sitting up there on stage with me as we sang the songs and so it was It was terrible as he just got sick. Just out of the blue like that. And you know you just never know but Yeah i i. I love my sadie. And she was so cute. She was always living life to the fullest and always always always getting in trouble and so. This is a song that she sings called. I'm in trouble. It will eventually be on the pop-ups album enjoy it. And we'll be back with more piecing it together coming up real soon throw an term trail initiative junior and my mom by now would term term man settle research from wrestling fan term. Down to them would turn all points west production. Produced by david. Rosen in las vegas.

disney david rosen kerala harley quinn Meryl streep emma thompson gerald emma stone ella carell davila youtube Correla deville carello emma toddler ainhoa london nicholas david shore anikin darth jerry tom
E4: E4 Daniel Di Martino on immigration, socialism and messaging to Latinos

Right Now with Stephen Kent

48:50 min | 6 months ago

E4: E4 Daniel Di Martino on immigration, socialism and messaging to Latinos

"Hello alone welcome the right now. I'm steven kent. We have been hearing for decades at the republican party needed to get. Its act together on outreach. Spanish voters or they would be relegated to the dustbin of electoral history in two thousand thirteen after mitt. Romney's presidential defeat. There was this moment of reckoning around republican efforts to appeal to latinos the consultant. Class talked about romney's suggestion that illegal immigrant self deport as the case in point of why the gop was going to be doomed to minority status and so congressional republicans tried doing the right thing. They worked on comprehensive immigration reform. But then things got hard and they gave up and along comes. Donald trump now. He completely disregards the squishy chamber of commerce consensus openly insults. Everyone coming here from the southern border and campaigns on building the wall then he not only defeats nearly a dozen rising stars in the republican primaries but goes on to win the presidency. Now fast forward to twenty. Twenty trump lost his bid for reelection against joe biden fair and square but the autopsy or for republicans. This time isn't all that bad. In fact if shoring up support amongst racial minorities was priority number one from the two thousand thirteen autopsy. Well then things are looking up and the messy truth of it is that donald trump and his brand of conservative politics. Let's just call it trumpism. It had a lot to do with it joining me today to try and make sense of. This is my co-host shana weisman. She's a fellow at the r street institute and out of lexington kentucky. I am thrilled to welcome daniel de martino. he's venezuelan freedom advocate economist and senior contributor to young voices daniel. Thanks for joining right. Now thanks to you in just shanna. Great to talk to you. Guys have -solutely now. We have a quick requests for everybody listening. If you haven't already pleased hit that subscribe button for the show on youtube below on your podcast and follow us on twitter at rightly. Aj like us and follow us on facebook at rightly aj well. I don't know what you do for fun on the weekend. But i spent my weekend with a piece in new york magazine about the takeaways from the twenty twenty election results for republicans and we have a lot more information now than we did. Just a few months ago on how individuals voted and also precinct level data now. New york mag interviewed. David shore is a democratic operative and data analyst. Pretty socialis guy for the record and long story short. Democrats won the turnout game. They got more people out to the polls but donald trump's gop expanded their coalition by persuading a record number of minority voters to break with democrats. The walkaway working now daniel. I guess just to start with you if only there had been somebody out there telling them that. Socialism means very different things to a spanish voters in south florida than it does to brooklyn hipsters. who think reading karl marx substitutes for personality. Why didn't know and do that. Look i've been saying since two years ago about how venezuelans you come from venezuela We oppose these kinds of ideas. It's not just about. The policies is also the rhetoric right and democrats now openly identifying with would socialism ideology. It's a huge turnoff for anybody who comes from our former socialist country and not just that right. It's around crime. Most people from latin america come from very crime infested blazes not just venezuelans central americans mexicans colombians. Everybody from in america is escaping crime. So they're obviously going to be attracted by law and order message. And that's what we saw in twenty twenty on the four trump made gains with hispanics. Because of the yeah. That's interesting because i think from from where you're from in venezuela like there is not much distinction between criminal regimes right and militias and a government that harms and abused people and socialism. It's all part of one thing and you end up with lawlessness and you end up with a totalitarian government. It all meshes together. And all. I think americans who are just now toying with this idea of socialism. I don't know they just view it as being nice to people like like the depth of the ideology here. And i'll add that. I think i think the shallowness as a part of it even people criticize it. Sometimes you know. I think it's kind of both ways that people like to label everything socialism for good for better or for worse but daniel. How do you see it as someone who lived in a socialist country. Look i do think that some democrats are huge danger to the future of the united states. I think that people like bernie sanders hon. Omar Like even if they had the chance if they had all the controllable the branches of government they would enact agenda that hugo chavez inactive bella have no doubt of that because that's what they openly propose on and that's why these people are not even able to condemn the dictatorships that were comparing them against. So you know the facts speak for themselves. And that's why a lot of venezuelans are just never going to for the democrats because those people those leftist have a place in the democratic coalition. I know it kind of goes beyond venezuelans right because a lot of a lot of folks in conservative circles. We'll talk about this as well That venezuelans are sort of a natural republican constituency. And then there's also this conversation about it being only about florida but this piece of new york mag david shores a breakdown of the data. Yes it was. Eight to nine. Percent of hispanics broke away from the democrats in two thousand twenty across the country but the numbers were just like even more widespread enlarge in florida in texas even up north like this is a national problem for democrats and probably shouldn't be confined just to talking about people who came here from venezuela colombia. It's a bigger thing right. It's not just venezuela and colombia. It is definitely stronger in from people who come from socialist countries right so the margin shifts that we saw in places like dora are forty points right eight or nine But but it's happening everywhere around the country because of this law and order message. Because of the ms focusing on the economy on people latino immigrants in general people any kind of immigration background are was really interesting. Yeah i was going to ask so daniel what do you so for the law and order side. Sometimes i think it's a bit of lawlessness in law and order message saying that government can kind of do what it wants and even like you know under under president. Trump stuff didn't work out so great like we. I don't think there was a big decrease in legal immigrants from the data. I've seen but also like they went after lower crimes because of I'm forgetting the name of the policy but basically Going after everyone except the highest risks and the most violent criminals which doesn't seem that great but like did that play a role with how people from these countries and people like yourself the right versus the last did that play any role. Look illegal immigration these not a obviously. Nobody wants more legal immigration. That's not a thing but people who have immigrant families and people who for example. How a family member who is on daca. I've been able to meet many people even in kentucky who are on daca and who have american friends who have other citizens who are part of their family. They're obviously going to care about those things and i think that the gop was very smart about the messaging. During the twenty twenty campaign had smart spanish campaigns. They appealed to specific national origin. Constituents is didn't appeal to hispanics their appeal to colombian americans venezuelan americans and americans mexican americans because they knew that each one of these groups different things foreign policy crime socialism etc right. Yeah that's one of the things that they kinda zeroed in on with this breakdown of hispanic voters leaving the democrat coalition and twenty twenty. Was the idea that they actually really would like their cities to be safe. Go figure like that's what you come to. This country for is political stability and not to be living amongst riots. And i i remember in the summer of twenty twenty. I was looking at major cities. Burning during the black lives matter the peak of those protests and those riots and like i get it but the white democrats and white city mayors right like telling people like you gotta go on board with get on board with this or you're not part of the democratic coalition and i think most people came into this country particularly hispanics like looking for calm looking for security. They would like to own a home. They want to be a shopkeeper. And if your party is the one that says you need to be okay with your city burning down. For the sake of social justice you're not going to stick around and our coalition very long. Yeah all out there to I i want to save seen reports. That said that like de-fund the police was just not a good message. It wasn't from a messaging standpoint effective. And i'm all for criminal justice reform but like that's not a message that's going to get people on board because on the goes up hispanic support goes down. Yeah to work but you know there's another forgotten issue that was I think that. What's behind a lot of. Latino increased reporting texas specially in the in the rio grande valley and ballots the energy issue that we saw very clearly differences between bite on trump on supporting oil drilling in texas oil drilling in other parts of the country and a lot of people working that industry and biden. There you go now. He's president on the. He's actually following through with this energy regulations. That are the trying jobs and people care about their jobs more than anything else more than eight immigration more than any kind of other issue right. Yeah there was another article in my in my raise. There was this piece in the new york. Times called like the vexing question for democrats. What is driving hispanic men to the republican party and it was this very thing which was a guy talking about the. The man is community. Who would like to be working on an oil pipeline right now but now they can't like those are their jobs and it was like the conclusion of the new york times. Here was the vexing question for democrats is. Why do hispanics like to work like they want to have jobs. They want to pay their own rent and they didn't come here to have someone else pay for them and that's kind some cultural thing. That's good and i feel like we should be excited about that but either. Republicans don't acknowledge it and democrats. Don't either i think the republicans archaeology and that's why they made gains right I think that the issue that we need to talk more about is immigration as policy about white economically beneficial for the country. Why it's not true. That republicans are doomed if more immigrants come to this country and the history of it. I think that there's a lot of mates that we have. To debunk and that many republicans are hurting the party by talking negatively on. Just i disagree with this though. I think that this gain of eight to nine percent in hispanic votes for trump is largely ineffective democrats pushing people away. But i do not see a republican party that is actually openly saying yes. Come to us like liuhua. Actually want the latino vote. I feel like they received these people because there was no other place to go and the republican party has not been opening in its rhetoric at all. Yeah and we should. I mean honestly. One of the big issues that i work on occupational licensing reform. They will always talk about. But i've been working on enabling immigrant doctors to work here because a wildly high proportion of our healthcare workforce is made up of immigrants. But we make it so hard for them to work here the processes they have to get re licensed and things they might already know like republicans should look at that and go like how about we fix that because it's more access to care jobs for the people who do these jobs and like let people come here in succeed let alone other fields where it's going to be a similar issue with the licensing or other regularly because i mean don't you think that there is an issue within the republican party about believing that hispanics who come here to this country whether illegally or legally are just leaching off the system. I remember daniel knocking on doors back when i did grassroots work and the number one thing that people said to me when they were being told about social security insolvency was that it was being pillaged by immigrants that they were the ones who are causing all the problems and all the shortfalls. And i don't feel like what you mentioned about. Republicans and their views on latinos in work. I don't think that the voters instinctively do feel that way. I think that the republican elites feel that way. But not everybody who's voting. Well you know stephen. Most republicans agree with even citizenship to people in dhaka in the united states According to research center. So i i have to agree that that republicans are not open to immigration as voters on even less us as a messaging strategy. Right if it's something school from twenty twenty s and there was a concert. Gop effort from the rmc from the trump campaign to appeal to be spanked voters and show that they are accepted within the question whether they still have their body migration views in my opinion that thing but yeah obviously it's not true that immigrants ravaging social security because People who are here with who are not citizens are not eligible for social security and they end up paying into a lot of our our our welfare systems. You know not disparaging the ball systems. There might be problems in it but they pay into it and a lot of times these people retire in their home countries so they end up in many cases paying more than they'll ever take out if they become legal. So there's a lot of oddities here. But i agree with both of you that i think there's not. Everyone understands the depth of these issues. A lot of people who have used. I mean i guess it's natural. Human nature did not like the endorphin research every little thing inside and out but there's a lot of depth on a lot of these issues and that's where the messiness of the republican party. I think is really interesting because there is a knee jerk reaction to say that donald trump was an incredibly right wing president on paper. He was actually pretty moderate and he was not particularly ideological. he really scrambled republican orthodoxy. We've been talking about that for several years. Like with the issue of social security. He came out in defense of it. And that's something that republicans have been fighting against for decades. And that's the kind of party that i came up in which was privatize social security. Everybody don't trump realized that people wanted and also realized that people had a perception that it was going away right because of things like immigration that was unchecked and daniel. I would like to see a republican party. Reorient around defending social security and sang the only way to pay for it is immigrants. These are the only people who are having children. You'll never actually produce one. I think that Well the social security that's gonna come up regardless of whether or oppose it and so i'm actually not that worried about that. Just because the financial structure of it is is gonna force to deal with the entitlement problem But with immigration. Yes we should be rearranging the gop towards policies. There are good for the economy. That are good for us. Immolation of immigrants and under good for americans in general right now just immigrants sheshona brought up an amazing policy which is to help people with foreign credentials. Exercise that professions in america. Can you imagine what americans could do if they had better healthcare cheaper healthcare. That's better for everybody right well. Except perhaps the doctors unions bagley which which is a big part of the of the healthcare problem here. But it's not just with licensing. It's with legal high skilled immigration. This country makes it so difficult for anybody would skills from brought to come and makes it so easy for anybody who just has a distant family member to immigrate and shoot work. That's not how a smart countries do it. That's not how canada the outside. That's austrailia dowsett. Two thirds of the immigrant populations in canada and australia have college degrees and he's one third in the united states because here it's so easy to us as a family member and so hard to come assess skilled emigrants to change. Yeah i feel like particularly on the right. We are really torn between whether or not We want to be focused on the issue of high skilled immigration. And really talking about the merits and talking about just lower immigration overall like australia. You mentioned like very selective immigration system. It's really hard to go to australia and become a citizen same for canada. But i feel like the left sort of talks about these countries as if they're open just because they they speak nicely about people from other countries that those are the ideal and i think that's what it comes down to is. Just are you nice about it. Yeah are you mean about it. And republicans believe every other country looks nicer. It's kind of like you always want your what your neighbor has. I think a lot of these issues do come down to that fundamental human nature of like. Oh that must be there. Because like everything i see of that is nice even though i've never been there or talk to anyone from there They have selective systems on. It's definitely hard for immigrants. Who don't have skill all to immigrate to canada australia yet. That more immigrants has proportion of their population than the united states so they admit the immigrants that have the most potential to speak english to have the most potential to contribute to the economy. And help that native workers there. Another research supports this look at the restrictions that we have here in the united states for high skilled visas for for companies like the h. One b. visa. Everybody hates nobody knows how it works. are proven by research from many economists to lead to offshoring that reducing. The number of visas in the united states. Leads companies to relocate to canada. Australia china because it's easier for multinationals to bring the best skilled people into their companies in those countries than in america hot tag. I think that conservatives want to hurt big tech companies and big industries and their use of h one b visas and immigrants purely culture war issues like they just they want to hurt the lives right who are bringing in immigrants to work at their companies. And that's what this is really about. It's just about sentiment and posture rather than the merits. Yeah i'll also add on alex neurotic at the cato institute has a lot of work here that i kind of like that gets into some of the details and it doesn't even you know his works really good. I don't think it brings you to one conclusion or another except that immigration tends to work out for us. It's one of those things like when we have lots of remembrance attendants to work out but also one thing daniel brought up that i really liked is about the complexity of getting h. One bs because regulatory complexity is just going to reduce access. And that's not a good thing if we want. We should have systems that work. Well we shouldn't prevent immigrants from working here one way or the other and we do lots of that so even when we bring immigrants here renault like hey opportunity. Let's get to work. Let's do cool stuff together. Bring your expertise. We're like well you'll have to wait some years. And maybe then you'll be allowed to do that. And that's crap like we shouldn't be doing that especially to the highest skill people look. There's one noble price winner. Who got denied. One of the green cards That had applied during trump's presidency. Like we were in complexity to a degree that he's in imaginable immigration system and it takes so long to it costs so much money so even if we disagree on how they 'immigration system should look or how we should change it. We should make it simpler for everybody less for the government less costly for the immigrants. Yeah i wanna see an immigration system and an idea form on the right of really sort of being ruthlessly pragmatic and saying like we have problems in this country. one of them is our social safety net shortfalls. We can't actually pay for you to live comfortably in old age if people are not going to be having children and producing more workers to pay for it so we need to bring people in we also have dying cities all over the country Particularly in the in the heartland right is there a case to be made for thinking about immigration in a very controlled way not going spontaneous order not saying like hey welcome to america. Go wherever you want but saying actually we'd like you to be here but you're headed detroit and you have to live there for five years so on that no. unfortunately it's not cities but immigrants immigrants in the healthcare profession tend to work in rural areas. And we have an enormous borough health. I don't know. I don't think research has figured out why except that. They do. Maybe the need area each because there's so it's harder for for those areas to find doctors right on immigrants or just more willing to move on to take the extra effort to make sure that they're able to stay in the united states as an immigrant. My say you know if if what it takes to become an american is to five years in alaska do it. That sounds pretty great. I mean there's great mountains in alaska table. The hiker an entire nation of hikers. What do you think of that idea like. Really being very controlling and open at the same time about immigration so that we are accomplishing national goals whilst being just incredibly open as a country to more people coming here. Yeah i totally agree on. There are many ideas to that. And they're both ideas to increase accessing the healthcare sector. You know senator john. On former senator purdue had a bill to to give cards to immigrant healthcare workers to that we had more doctors nurses etc but then there's also the heartland visa idea That's that's proposing the democratic bill. But it's it's an idea from from utah. Republicans that would give states that control over immigration policy to are to a degree so states would be given some number of green cards and then they would decide how to honda out. I personally have the idea to make sure that even churches were able to sponsor immigrants. That states could give out this Visas to nonprofit organizations and they could decide then who comes into the united states communities seeds could vote and then there will be both community buying church buying a simulation work together and it will be much better for the amid on sunday communities. There is an element of this the political football part of immigration and sort of kicking the can down the road on solving our broken system and trying to stop the constant state of crisis that we have as we are talking. The news is being driven by the border crisis. Right there is another wave of a children migrants flooding the border and living in camps and they are suffering the conditions are not good and it is is a travesty and it doesn't look good for america either. We are constantly caught in this loop of doom problem solving. And i feel like the people who don't wanna solve it do so because their voters think that all new people coming into the country our political weapons like they are being used as voters for one side of the other. I grew up in a time where the media and the democrats were constantly talking about. Whites are going to be a minority by twenty thirty five and every person who comes into the country is making the gop more irrelevant and so republican voters go. Oh they're importing democrats and that's what this is really about and it's ugly and i don't know if we are going to be able to overcome that because daniel even you you've been saying like venezuelans. Potential republicans is that counterproductive. What if that yeah digs in democrats on their positions look. It is totally counterproductive. E bring forces a narrative among themselves that they shouldn't but for the gop imagine if the gop were saying that about just black voters right would reinforce narrative among black borders numb over the gop. So we shouldn't be saying those things believing them because it's not true today. The country is more more of a proportion of immigrants than than since early twentieth century yet. Republicans are winning elections. So it's all what messaging it's all about different policies There's no reason to believe that. Immigrants are more liberal than the natives. It's the opposite. It are more socially conservative than americans born here on that as we come from countries. That don't have abortion. In many cases you know more pro-life you happen to meet your lexington. Even door knocking for the gop in the in twenty twenty and i met this african immigrant family election suburbs. And they. I knew there were african based on their right but then they also had a huge of the virgin mary in their door. He was like five feet. And so i immediately thought okay. These people are catholic. That's how i'm going to reach them. And i told him you know. Are you pro-life on they say yes. Of course i'm pro-life well. You know here. We have pro-life candidates. Gop and we want to protect the right to life but you know what they told me that we care about life not just for the born we also care about immigrants. We also care about coronavirus. We also care about all these other issues and so it's we have to appeal to them in different ways. So let's talk about it. The allergy then because a big part of this sort of david shore breakdown of voters who were leaving the gop like this are leaving their democratic party. This was all about whether or not the democrats have become too ideological and two neat in ordering their views all different groups all right. So hispanics blacks whites. Roughly forty percent are conservative. Thirty five are moderate and twenty five percent of those groups are liberal and that is across most of american life but it is white voters who have become really really partisan instead of ideological right. They've taken like i am liberal. So i'm a democrat or conservative. So i'm a republican to really far extents. You have a solid split in the black community between people who identifies conservative and liberal. But they still are willing to vote either way whites really sort based on party. And it's made things extreme. And i don't think hispanics jive with that at all exactly what you were saying daniel. They have a little bit more of an eclectic view of politics. Whereas i think white liberals want everything to be very neat and orderly you have to subscribe to critical race theory and public school funding. And you have to subscribe to defunding police or you're not a democrat. I think it's a problem It's true that the data says that the democrats have become more ideologically pure on radical over time and that's try turning off people right. It's starting off people who support school choice who support more jobs for their communities. And that's why you see very fewer conservative democrats in congress and that's why democrats are having much of more more of a trouble now in congress than they did in the twentieth century how. Gop manages to make sure that they can capture these voters permanently. How can they especially break. Democrats hold them on black borders. That's harder to to know. Personally i know a that. The way to break the hold among immigrant voters whether they're he's finding whether they're asian is to continue pushing the the message of law and order and the economy but also to be more open or immigration. How are you going to convince somebody. Who's sibling is on daca to for you. Regardless of what your personal interests might be as a voter. If the person that you're voting for once you report your sibling that's not going to have. Yeah stupidly or anything else. And i'll add to. I've seen different. Studies like one said that basically second generation immigrants are basically kind of warlike their communities politically than their parents any disparity at first on politics and also that You know basically i. It's more of that kind of thing More that immigrants kind of come here. They take up the political views of their communities. And i've talked about this before. But i really think that there's something to be said for the rural urban divide because i think depending on where they live learn from the people around them apply their own values and views too but A lot of it i think has to do with. The left doesn't try very hard in rural areas many times and the right doesn't try hard in the cities and it's kind of like each party just doesn't try heart in every community and they should they should what i always say is show up. Show they care and show solutions. So what do you think that looks like for for different kinds of immigrant communities. Is it different than it is for like for people who were born here and in other communities is that something new yes. You're totally right with bishop. Shanna a immigrants do take up their political beliefs of the communities. They live in on. I think that this is actually an argument for the harland visas to make sure that states with lower immigrant populations that are rural. Like say south dakota indiana montana. Take up more immigrants so that people will end up voting for the gop assimilating. Better learning english more That's actually one of the factors that determines english proficiency it's whether this immigrants leave among immigrants that speak their language right so it's much harder for somebody from mexico to learn english in south texas than it is in kansas right because they just have more people to speak spanish with decks than in kansas On your for from different countries. It's true that people from different countries have different ideology son and different. Political beliefs. Happens with people from socialists. Countries with few months with medicines colombians. Who happens with asians that un-european set conference former socialist nations people from vietnam. People from taiwan people from ukraine tend to vote more for the gop because of that past experience. What are the problems that we sort of see with party. Polarization is actually an education divide more educated voters or sorting out into the democratic party Less educated voters sorting out of the republican party And this is particularly an issue with white college. Educated whites going to the democrats but dental. You said that people start to match the communities in which they're living and you had written in the orlando sentinel that with venezuelans. Nearly fifty eight percent have a college degree. Are they going to come to the united states. Join that are more college educated and then become democrats instead of republicans like you're saying no because What i'm what i'm saying that. They matched the communities. They live in a season geographically. Okay and based on their experiences not necessarily their educational sation beliefs unannounced. You say yes. Their educational forestation in this country. But it is mainly. I'm a white is not among blacks hispanics rations Patients are actually the ethnic minority in the united states. Would most college degrees sixty three percent of them have a college degree yet. They voted more for republicans than say blacks or or other ethnic minorities because education yes educational system in the united states has to change and it's indoctrinated some people but that's not going to raise my experiences of venezuelan coming from associates coach. It's the opposite education and there are studies about the effect of college on on ideology. I it's not so much that day. You leftist. Perhaps they do to some americans who don't have any ideology but makes conservatives more radical mix liberals more radical as well. You know that's interesting. That kind of reminds me of work. I've seen showing that basically when you're aggressive with something it polar is is so if you come and yell at a guy. Hey you're wrong. He's just going to be like i'm just going to back off but also the people around yelling or like a wool. I'm with you because you're yelling at him so it kind of sounds like that. Education has that effect i heard was white. Must be stopped why they're making so much worse for everybody. People don't want to be aligned with parties purely based on ordering all there together like it doesn't all have to be neat. And i think that the more that you are engulfed in your education you've been reading political science books like me over here like you think that everything has to connect. Yeah that's just not how how people think about their lives and parties shouldn't be about that like i. You and i both kind of came up in that grover norquist that you had to sign the tax pledge to be a republican lawmaker. Maybe that's not good like maybe. The republican parties shouldn't be committed to a boundary. I'll go red line in the sand about. This is the only thing that you can accept before you do anything else. That's not good for building strong diverse parties. And but i will say at the same time we were still big on big ten th at the time but i kind of feel like it's we've gone away from that a little like i i think diversity is a real issue in both parties diversity of ideas and accepting that diversity of ideas. But i'm wondering like i think more i think. Republicans who are into immigration reform increasing immigration might be like we might be more open to that now than years ago. Because i feel like you weren't allowed to say nice stuff. In certain cases i remember how bad odd jeb bush got head for saying that immigrating here illegally was an act of love but sometimes families earnhardt spots. And you've got it. Then what do you make of it. Do you think that we've been going in the right direction in the party on immigration or or the wrong or just different. I tend to think that it seemed wrong direction. Because if you look at what. The presidential debates in the republican primary of nineteen eighty between bush father on ronald reagan. Who are the main. Then you see a totally different rhetoric around even illegal immigrants On on shutting down concerns about how they were a burden on fiscally on the government which they weren't and says they don't. It's it's an incredible difference to what we're here today. What we saw in one thousand nine hundred eighty About mexican illegal immigrants. Even so. I think it's in the wrong direction. But you see that support among americans for solutions that are common sense like increasing. Legal high-skilled skilled immigration. That is good for the economy. That is good for for the party. It's two thirds of americans support increase in legal highschool immigration and that includes two thirds of republicans. It's not even a partisan issue. It's two thirds across the political spectrum. So i think that's a political issue. That's something that could unify republicans. Perhaps we can't unify around other things but we should have some point commonality on proposals. I think legal high school immigration should be one of them. I will say though. I'm just curious when you saw because he seemed to know the history pretty well as i should have figured you would but when did the right start to move like more against immigration illegal or or otherwise. I'm just curious when that shift started to happen. I believe it happened on the nineties. That's based on role at red annuities. Part of a bigger wave of illegal immigration ran legalized illegal. Immigrants in nineteen eighty six on illegal immigration. Didn't stop because the border was not secured and because there to stop illegal immigration is not just to secure the border unless you want to spend a trillion dollars a year just to catch everybody. I'm building a wall. Even through the desert and having you know hundreds of thousands of border patrol agents. That's just not not going to happen. It's fiscally sustainable. You have to create a legal path or people who come here illegally who is southern border that seitz central america even some visas to work your temporarily and go back to their countries because all these people wanna do all several hundred thousand of them year when do is come here working access working. Utah work anywhere in the country and go back after a year. Daniel isn't the problem. The problem with that cuts against like the assimilation issue. You're talking about hundreds of thousands of people who come here just to be temporary neighbors to people and communities where. I don't know you'd like your your neighbor to be speaking the same language you'd like to actually be in community with people who are living around you but you're talking about people passing through all the time who you have nothing in common with. I think that rubs people the wrong way when you're talking about people who are just gonna come here and then lee. I'll back for a second my dot so i'm terrible learning language if i just can't learn other languages and so hard even with coding struggle. But my dad growth in queens. He had friends who spoke like chinese and spanish. his parents taught him hebrew and spanish. A bit Because we're we're like. I'm like a heinz fifty seven. I'm like from everywhere. But like he and his friends would each other there languages. sometimes you can really bond over those differences. I made a great friend. In my last neighborhood i lived in a venezuelan family. We grill it would hang out together and talk to each other through google. Translate would sit with our phones and talk to each other through them. Because i just not been able to learn spanish and his was really bad. We had a lot in common and it was great but that's not like the ideal you really would like to be able to communicate and i feel like when you're talking about people coming here to work and leave after three years. I don't know. Is that the goal is or is the golden build america with more citizens. It is not the goal of permanent immigration. And it's not the goal to give these people agreeing. Kerr made them citizens give them the right to vote. I'm talking about temporary workers so that they don't call me legally because everything is about cost benefits if you want to stop illegal immigration and therefore reduce drug trafficking reduce criminals who sneak into the water right. The the criminals are never going to get through the legal immigration system but they are much more likely to go through illegally emigrating illegally illegal immigration. Right so how do we change that equation. Other we make americans safer. How do we make the economy better. Would it mean that we will have some people who work here temporarily and don't speak the language or or you know you say there's not a simulating. Well they're not going to become citizens that's not their goal and we're already heavy eleven million illegal immigrants here not assimilated into the country so you rather millions less illegal immigrants and some people going back to their countries and coming and going legally without criminals. I think that will take trader of a thousand times. And i certainly would. And i think probably to ryan winus down here. We gotta talk real quick about the border situation. I mentioned the the migrants of caravans and these these hundreds and thousands of children in the thousands of shoulder on the border who are in these migrant camps and this is not good. This is what we are constantly in that doom loop of problem solving daniel. What do we need to do with the current border situation. And what can congress actually take action on. That would make this better so just to summarize situation. The border for people who are not familiar Children are coming on a company to the border showing up or trying to cross a border agents on. What do you do at that point right. It's not like you're going to tell the child to starving the desert by you have to take them in and so that's why they're they are in what the media criticized trump for cages on. Jails when reality. It's just something you have to do when children come by themselves so the question is why our children coming by themselves. The reason is that they know their parents if they come with their parents are all going to be deported or the children wound. They're not gonna be the portadown we can't because we're humans right we we're not gonna you know violate human rights so hard. We make sure that no more children come without violating their rights. I think that's a question on. I think that the answer should be having a legal pathway for the family to come work because at the end that family that he's sending their child by themselves to the united states. Why are they looking for. They're looking for a better future for their children. How legal if if there's no chance for people to have a better future for their children violate the law. This is human nature. That's what people south korea and try to do anything illegally because they're trying to provide a better future for their children and the united states either finds a way to give the legally or this is going to continue happening. Perpetually our you wanna bet we're not gonna find a way and just keep governing in a state of crisis forever we like doing that as a country. Dan od martino thanks. Man for joining right now is so good to see you. Thank you you too right now. Every week we'd like to shine a light on what's happening on the interweb and this week was the hashtag high-speed rail it's been picking up speed. Now why is that well. Vox had a story headlined. Gen z high-speed rail maimed dream explained. Thank goodness it's been explained now. It included a two thousand and thirteen map of the united states. Showing what a dream rail network might look like bold colored lines that connect los angeles and new york. Minneapolis and miami and even vancouver to the tijuana route now. The vox story with the map. Got a boost when transportation secretary peter. Buddha judge retweeted it sang. Gen z dreaming. Big it's time. We all did the same to which john josh barrow business insider said. Oh jesus not this stupid map. I feel the same way. And alfred will now. This guy is the one who designed the map. He says that is to be a litmus test. On how you see high speed rail as a transportation or political project expensive trained in the middle of nowhere or an important part of mending urban rural and regional divides he asks democratic congressman. Seth moulton of massachusetts says. This doesn't have to be a dream. That high speed rail is one of the smartest investments we can make right now coincidentally he just reintroduced to bill to invest two hundred five billion dollars over five years to create a nationwide high speed rail network to sean. Are you excited for the gen z. Speed rail dream. Oh hey it's so like one thing. I liked on the map as that. It would make it easier for me to get to utah. And i'm very interested in any way that will make it either goes direct to the mountains so that you begin your hike right there. Yeah i really liked that beyond that so now. I'm not a transportation policy nerd. I kind of feel like this might be a meme. That's like gonna become policy is this has been going on for well over a decade. I kind of resent the idea that it's a zuma dreamlike millennials used to be on this too and it i think what vox of rightly pointed out is it is a measurement of whether or not you have given up on dreaming big like you have the map and it's ridiculous. No one's ever going to build this. This is never going to happen. They can't connect california together by high speed rail. We can't connect eastern corridor by it. So i think it's just like are you a pragmatist. And have you given up on the big dream. Ormer you up on the big dream. But like i'm open to like i'm open to ways that we'll get him out and go faster or like some parts of it looked kind of interesting. I'm like i took you from california to florida like that. There's better ways to do that. I'm like the idea of high speed rail. Like i'm definitely sort of a closet libertarian supporter of the idea that i would like to take the train everywhere. But it's just not. It's just not practical and the left who want this thing built. They're not even considering that it's their environmental review regulations for news. It's gonna make it impossible. You will never get an epa clearance for some of the stuff that you need to do. I know i'm like thinking like arthur. Bison they won't this kill like a long life and like vine salt lake thousands of animals and also eminent domain. One real issue with it like you would have to eminent domain. Like the hell out of so many things and places. I think it goes through national parks like looking at it. I'm pretty. I could totally be wrong but i think it goes through national parks like you can't do that again like the vice and we're going to kill the vice in like did didn't we already have a problem with almost not having bison at one point we should be chill. I hope the hipsters are really okay with two hundred bison dying making the connection to la and new york city. It's not sustainable. I did find some good news this week and you might be surprised at the source. It comes from comedian. Sarah silverman time democrat now. Says she's turned off by the absolutist of the party. All or nothing and that elitist attitude is driving her away. And i've been thinking about this a lot. Just in general i just. I don't know that. I want to be associated with any party. I really i think. I don't want to be associated with any party anymore. It just it comes with too much baggage. This is good news. I always like hearing when a celebrity has come out against being involved in politics x. What she said is exactly right. And that's why it's going so viral like the democratic party in particular requires you to be incredibly ideological and support all things or you get cancelled online. Like i get it to be. Yeah like so. I grabbed her but she's been like one of the worst bears. She's been out there doing that. Bad stuff for so long. I hope that it's genuine shoes recovery. That's why it's the good news segment. More people are joining the political orphanage. And that is something i value. We talked about it with daniel. Yeah a political parties should be about different people with different interests but enough in common coming together to against the other people. But it is. It's just instead become very very like doctrinal and you should be able to vote for good people over bad people and it's not always clear but you should be able to make that assessment yourself and not be like you know party. Line party line. No good for silverman. She is free shawna. What's your good news. So i found this account yesterday. And i'm in love it's it's at utah updates. They had like a little issue. But like it's if you is follow jurassic park updates. It's very similar updates to jurassic you. T rex escaped on. We're trying to fix him. Eating people stuff like that and it's very much the same. They're like the department of transportation dot board so they added a couple of new lanes the highway or mitt. Romney has escaped. I love this account. I love utah. I love utah politicians. So this is like very much thing like they even had one for Spencer cox who shaves his head or all either way but the governor there. What or the other They tweeted something like He actually shakes his head each morning to look more like his hero vin diesel. I love this. It brings me so much. Joy was your guy who cut like an ad with his democratic. Wholesome about it angel. He's so sweet and like and it's not because utah clean. Who's a little more. Partisan to unroll may even has his moments being more. Partisan but like spencer cox really wants to be governor governor and he liked the tweet and like so cute. I look forward to the day you get the key to salt lake city. It's coming yeah better on that positive note. That's all for this week on right now. I'm steven kent and we'll see you next thursday.

gop united states republican party daniel donald trump venezuela democratic coalition steven kent shana weisman r street institute daniel de martino David shore canada daca democrat coalition white democrats australia colombia new york texas
The Fear Olympics.

Pod Save America

1:08:51 hr | Last month

The Fear Olympics.

"The presenting sponsor of this episode of pod. Save america is simply safe when simplisafe home. Security's founders chad and eleanor. Lawrence design their first security system in their kitchen. They did it for a very personal reason. They're friends had just had their home broken into. They were struggling to find security system. That was simple to set up and would make them feel safe again. Do you think if we made a series of hanging chad jokes anyone would get it anymore. Wow that really dates us. Yeah you'll who likes a good recount joke outdoor. Maybe maybe dan will effort at the end or be very sad because he worked on. I have simply safe. It works really. Well set it up myself. Shout and eleanor lawrence. Set it up for you know. But they did test it Detested and they were caught in the net It was easy to install. You can do it yourself it. It's like it's works incredibly well. It has literally never give me a problem. And all the time that i've had it and it's just really reliable and great to use the app because you can turn the alarm on or off from your phone You can use the camera in your phone if you have a camera set up. It's just incredibly useful and simple and it's a great system. And i recommend it making people feel safe as with simplisafe has been doing ever since that moment. Fifteen years ago a passionate protect people not only drives every engineering detail. Its products and motivates every interaction with its customers and the thing is simply safe just makes it so easy takes about two minutes to customize system on their website simplisafe dot com slash crooked simplisafe has highly trained security experts. Ready whenever you need them or that's during a fire a burglary medical emergency or even just when you're setting up the system. There's always someone who has your back to keep you safe and make sure you feel safe as our listener. You can save twenty percent on your simplisafe security system and get your first month free when you sign up for interactive monitoring service. Woo just visit. Simplisafe dot com slash crooked customize your system and start protecting your home and family that simplisafe dot com slash crooked than palm beach ballot. Welcome to save america. I'm john bevere john limit. I'm tommy detore on today's democrats. Make another run at passing. A voting rights bill lovett. And i talked to dr job. The dean of public health brown university about what the latest cdc guidance and scary covert headlines. Actually mean for you and a new analysis but why we're all so angry points to fox news as the culprit. Sometimes it's the person you most expect. But i some fun news. Crooked media's very first book is now for sale at crooked dot com slash store. It's called the crooked guide to societal re entry. And it's a hilarious. Beautifully illustrated seventy five page book. That has everything you need to know about how to make a seamless transition back into public life after being stuck at home for more than a year. The guide is written by what today. Newsletter editor. Sara lazarus and illustrated by crooked own diana. Ramesh get a copy for yourself and all your friends now. Again that's crooked dot com slash store. Cool fun book is it's awesome. Everybody's checking out. Good gift good gift for good gift for guess. Not stockings nova nope not that. I don't know when you when you when you goyim celebrate your nonsense. We celebrate christmas. Not in the summer let's It's tough sorry. Sorry to make you know that fact all right. let's get to the news performing for because he's in the studio doing a lot of jokes directly all right. That does the old days i. Oh let's get to the news after a strategy session at the white house on friday. Democrats in congress are expected to unveil new versions of the for the people act and the john lewis voting rights. Act this week. The idea here is to scale back the original bill so that they're focused mostly on preventing voter suppression electoral subversion and partisan gerrymandering which will get joe manchin on board. And at least in joe manchin mind hopefully get some republicans on board not holding our breath. There we also keep getting reminders about why this is also important. Mother jones is ari berman. Just reported on a new analysis from the democratic data firm target smart that shows republicans can take back control of the house in two thousand twenty. Two by drawing gerrymandered congressional districts in just four states that they already control georgia florida north carolina and texas and on the election subversion front We just learned from notes that the department of justice officials released a congress that donald trump called acting attorney general. Jeffrey rosen a few days before the attack on the capital and told him quote just say the election was corrupt and leave the rest to me. And the republican congressman. That's great that's a cool quote all right. Lots to unpack here. Let's start with the twin threats of gerrymandering and election subversion and then work our way towards the solutions Tommy what does berman's please tell us about the size and scope of the republican advantage when it comes to redistricting. So i thought. The best overall quote in ari berman piece was from everybody's favorite pill pusher turned member of congress dr ronnie jackson who said that the redistricting alone should get the majority back to republicans. Get to draw hundred. Eighty seven congressional districts. Total democrats get to draw seventy five th the rescue drawn by commissions or states with divided government. According to ari's piece republicans could pick up six to thirteen seats in the house via redistricting in georgia florida north carolina in texas alone. So in other words the majority could be handed from the democrats to the republicans. Just because the maps get redrawn. Not because anything else changed so we are staring down the barrel of a gun right now. I at least the congressional majorities. They need five seats to flip. They might be able to get five seats. Just out of florida. Forget three states. Well yeah i mean the the because our majority is narrow. They probably won't do that. They will probably not over gerrymander in some of these places because they're famous for showing restraint. Well no the reason no not because they care about not out of restraint research out of politics. Because you know one they can you kind over gerrymander. You can draw the maps and district your republicans just to delicately you get too greedy. And then all of a sudden a wave election could overcome gerrymander. The problem is average already is so narrow that they don't have to do that. They can actually draw pretty strong republican seats in a lot of these states Even though they've lost ability to gerrymander as as extensively in places like wisconsin because we now have the governorship and a few other states They can do it in a way. That is Kind of insurmountable even with a wave election even if we have a mid-term in which people turn out as much as they did turn out in twenty twenty you. The the white house has been telling voting rights activists that they can out organize some of these voter suppression laws. Which you know. There's a big debate over whether you can. People are upset that the white house is saying that understandably putting it all on activists and organizers but like how much more difficult is it to out organize gerrymandering. Tommy so i i get something. I kind of get the messaging goals here. Which is we. Don't want to make it sound so dire the voter suppression Tactic so dire. That democrats get sad and give up like they want people to stay motivated. But you just can't out organized a gerrymander. You can't out. Organize elections subversion laws that take the power away from voters in hand them the state legislature. So that they can overturn an election result. It's impossible like the problem with. Gerrymandering is the further and further. We go the computer software and other programs get more sophisticated and allow you to draw up. Just perfect maps for either side almost unbeatable. You can't organize your way out of that in so i don't know if they were talking about suppression laws or voter. Id laws or something associated with gerrymandering gerrymandering itself. But the suggestion that you can out organized. Gerrymandering is wrong. And i can understand why that would land as almost insulting sounding if you're an activist who cares about this deeply. Yeah i mean it's part of the reason also why i've been sort of annoyed. That must've coverage about voter suppression since the election has been focused on some of the voter suppression laws and not the fact that republicans are about to gerrymander the shit out of the map for a decade because like it is horrific to for example. You know ban people from ben volunteers from giving food and water to people waiting in an hour line. That's awful right but there are ways to get around that right. There are ways to make sure that people voters are educated about the hurdles. They have to jump over to register to vote and to make sure they're not purged from roles like all. This stuff is horrible but there are ways to get around it. David shore democratic data analyst says in his mother jones piece if everyone voted the same way as in two thousand twenty republicans. Win the house through redistricting alone. That's how hard it is to organize a gerrymander. And he said the ban gerrymandering bits contained in this voting rights. Legislation is about five times more important than the rest of the bill combined. Yeah i mean you can't organiz someone's house from a ninety ten democratic district to fifty five forty five public that we're going to beat that we're gonna move you out of the district And i and i do think actually even though it is absolutely true. We've seen this in in In remember pennsylvania to georgia you can organize and educate voters to overcome these things and there are knock on investment. Help when you tell people their vote is threatened you can sometimes instill people Kind of real pressure in and desire to get out there and overcome these hurdles that said it is a frustrating message. I agree tommy that it is about just sort of signaling like we think this fight may be really really hard if not impossible and if we lose it we still want to make sure people understand that we can win in the midterms but it does take the pressure off of congress to say that we can overcome these things with organization when the message needs to be. This is dire. This is an emergency. We need to act. We need to act right now yet. We don't want anyone to give up. Hope we're going to stay involved in fighting this. But like dave wasserman from the cook. Political report drew up. A hypothetical map of wouldn't gerrymander in texas. Could look like and you could end up with republicans having twenty five seats compared to thirteen seats for democrats even though biden losses state by only five points. So that is how much you can distort. What estate actually looks like when it comes to its partisan breakdown compared to its congressional representation and that's why it could be a disaster one of the thing. I just ad about this Democrats even if we controlled all state legislatures and can draw all maps because democrats tend to live in more democratic districts than republicans live in republican districts. It's actually harder for democrats to gerrymander to the extent that republicans can do it because democrats live in these concentrated areas in a way that republicans don't even these rural districts in which republicans kinda draw these maps to give themselves an advantage. There are more democrats there than there are in the heart of say like nancy pelosi district or adam shifts district rayo district or any of a number of very concentrated democratic districts. There is at one last thing on this. There is a timing issue here to the census releases the data that allows states to draw the maps on august sixteenth. So the it's coming fast. But even if congress passes a law banning gerrymandering sort of after the the the census data is released in. Some maps are drawn. It's the band. Would still sort of put the legal challenges to this on. Firmer ground you john. Roberts wrote himself in an opinion where he said. Gerrymandering was okay He's at the framers. Gave congress the power to do something about partisan gerrymandering in the elections clause sir. John roberts themselves basically tempting congress. Like it's on you. You wanna pass something. It'll be fine but if you don't pass anything we're not going to uphold any challenges to gerrymander. Any also gave aren't racially graham. Well that's the thing he also gave republicans in instruction manual for how do get racist gerrymanders through by leaving the the part in which they are trying to sort by race out of the conversation and making it partisan because that according to john roberts is protected Tell me i wanna get your thoughts on this trump story which once again falls into the category of shocking but not surprising So a bump at the washington post did point out that. What's new about. The story is the note suggesting that trump and congressional republicans may have been coordinating their efforts to overturn the election. what should we especially congress. Do with that information. I am very upset by the story. I found it not surprising but shocking as you say i wanna spend a minute talking about trump telling the attorney general that he may not be following the internet. The way i do and therefore didn't understand the stolen from him. This seems important to harp on because it does speak to where he's getting his information and how you know. I think it was one week ago or two weeks ago. We talked about the conspiracy theory that somehow the estate italians had stolen the election or someone in the us embassy in rome. it's only election. That's literally what he's talking about and it's he's not saying these things before you know. A crowd of aryan youths led by charlie kirk. He saying this stuff to the attorney. General of the united states that he appointed. And that's scary. I think the bigger question is why wasn't he. Following the internet is closely as trump. I mean if you know if you want to be good at your job you should know what your which your boss is up to and reading you know. Compensation got to read the whole internet. Dowden love it. What do we do about this what we do. That's i would say two things. One i know no but it is amazing. How close we were to all coming apart. We are very very lucky. We are very lucky that even after bar was gone and and trump tried to find someone who was more loyal to him in this job. There were these places where there was resistance where there did not have to be did not have to be resistance in. The georgia secretary of state's officer did not have to be resistance in a political In terms of political decision making a doj. The other piece of this is we need to get to the bottom of what kind of conversations trump was having with members of congress like brooks like jim jordan like kevin mccarthy that needs to be part of the investigation That the committee is running right now. They need to treat those members as what they are which is Some combination of witnesses and perpetrators. Yeah there's a. There's a cnn piece. Over the weekend. Where there was some question about whether they would be calling members of congress as witnesses potentially subpoenaing or or how they might get that information from them or that testimony rather I hope there's no question about whether someone like jim. Jordan will be called to testify mean. Did you see this fumbling interview. He did with some local journalists from ohio where he was asked if he talked to trump on january six. It's clear that guys hiding something. He definitely talked to him. Yeah it's been a couple interviews like this where he's like You talked to the president all the time. Jim jordan always very careful with his. You know it's like these guys. These guys only sand the edges off in moments like these when they're worried about what could happen if they're under oath. You're absolutely right that this is why it's the one six commission can't just be about the attack itself. It's about everything that led up to the attack including trump's efforts all along the way from the day after the election through the insurrection. To overturn the election itself and the members of congress who coordinate with them. And i also think i was glad to see that democrats make this new push for like a revised voting rights legislation. That they're going to include language to prevent election subversion. I think that language really needs to be quite strong. I mean there's a question of how much can you do about states trying to subvert the election republican officials in states on the federal level. They i think they need to amend the electoral act of eighteen. Eighty seven so that you need like two thirds of both houses of congress to send the electors back to the states that way if it's two third that's less likely to be partisan in nature like this idea that now whoever controls congress can reject the president whichever party controls congress can just reject. The results of a presidential. Election is fucking absurd. Yeah and it should never have been a law. The ivy there was this. There's this question. When trump said to rosen. Leave it up to me. And the congressman. What did he mean right. How concrete were the conversations. He had with members of congress. And i think that's really really important. Except that in the end he d. I wanna know how much communication was. I wanted to know how much coordination there was. But i think one of the lessons of january six is even if there was none they coordinated on television. They coordinated on twitter on the internet on the internet's trump's internet and they and they knew what they had to do. They didn't need the the same. The members of congress needed the same amount of instruction as the people on the national mall. They knew what trump wanted them to do. And that's all that really mattered and so Like the fact that he was in conversation with them is important but ultimately what we are watching is a threat that if basically what we know that if republicans have both houses of congress the The ability to actually have a presidential election is completely Let's talk about the path forward on protecting voting rates and democracy on sunday. Joe mansion told. Jake tapper that while he's optimistic about coming up with a compromise on voting rights he still doesn't support a filibuster. Carve out to pass it. Here's a clip. Jake kane imagine carve out. Because i was here in two thousand thirteen it was called a carve out. We're going to do the cabinet for the president and then it went into. We're going to do the judges. Who are lifetime appointments for circuit and district. They've even going to do supreme court. They didn't at that time. The democrats controlled 2017. Mitch mcconnell's in control comes right back in and guess what that car about worked really carves up pretty bad. Then you got the supreme court okay. So there's no stopping it and we don't put this place back in order you get rid of the filibuster. Which makes us work together. And i've said this. The whole the brilliant. Our our founding fathers was this why not worded. They have two senators to rhode island and delaware at the time they were forming this great nation of ours when they told new york and pennsylvania and ohio a unit to to It was basically to make us work together so that the big states went overrun the little states. It's a minority participation. Killing us joe. You're killing us. Say about that clip is like he. Actually that is an accurate history of what happened. In the past several years to the filibuster it does seem as though that is where he started learning history and he has zero knowledge of anything that came in that first. Vote to change the filibuster rules. Love it what are the options here. Like what why. Why do you think democrats are going through all the trouble of introducing new legislation and compromise legislation etcetera etcetera. If that's joe manchin position still i. That's the only option right. we have to. We have to fake it till we make it. We have to hope that. There's some chance that either either by some miracle and i think this is all but impossible. Joe manchin finds nine other senators lisa murkowski and doing what republicans as he mentioned correctly. Points out we're willing to do Only you know thirteen or fourteen years ago which is uphold the fucking voting rights act Mentioned in that tapper interview that it was something like ninety eight to nothing. Yes when they last voted on this Or at some point joe manchin will recommend the fact that he will answer his own question. Why has changed well because one of the two parties is turned against democracy and at every turn on our history when it became time to defend the right to vote the equal citizenship of every person in this country. It was a partisan decision. 'cause one part is one party new. They would lose because of it and so he will either come to recognize that he say that well. I don't think he'll say that that you should send them those remarks but he always finds me words now. Jake's questioned which totally question can you imagine doing it no. I can't imagine doing it. Even if he can in his beautiful fantastic imagination conjuring image of him passing a voting rights. Bill with fifty votes. He can't say that right now anyway because he has this theory that he can get these vote. So you have to hope. That is what he's saying now and he will allow the circumstances of republicans blocking the bill to lead him to maybe passing in the future. Barring that i don't know what else you're supposed to do so we have to just go through the motions and try to pass it or do you think. Tell me what's going on in that. Big beautiful houseboats sized brain of his. I wonder who wrote that. That carved out carved up quip and if they got a big old pat on the back after they came. I bet somebody my only hope and mansion is that he's just not going to change his answer until he does you know in like in some ways that's the smartest path for him just to just hold out when you decide to flip flop you flip flop and you do it until you're ready. You don't do it to love. it's point earlier journal. Buoy had a great piece in the new york times about how the attack on voting rights is partisan soon should be surprised that the response is partisan as well the fourteenth amendment with equal protection clause passed on a party. Line vote the fifteenth amendment that prohibits denying the right to vote based on race passed on a party line vote. Yes the civil rights bills in the sixties were bipartisan. But the parties hadn't divided like they are today so it's sort of an apples and oranges comparison. It's just a very frustrated. Kind of half ass. Look at history by our friend. Mr manchin as love. It said it doesn't start in twenty thirteen. It goes back a lot further Also i don't know if i've mentioned this person before there's a reporter than yorker that i love jane mayer. She wrote a book. If i ever brought this up on the show and she had amazing piece today and then got all that money. Isn't it about all the big dark money grew up there leading the fight on these voting restrictions. It's the heritage foundation. It's alec it's leonard. Leo of the federalist society. It's a bunch of weird billionaires. You've never heard of the linden. Harry bradley foundation or these like reactionist weird racist old white people that funded charles marie. The author of the bell curves scholarship. So it's all these usual being muddied interests groups pushing these voter suppression bills. I forgot your question john. I just got so caught up in the carved up carbon out. No no. I was just waiting for you to go from the jane. Mayer reference to rick pearlstine book reference. So i don't know if you can work those well reagan land. I'm still working through that one. I jumped over to the facebook book which is very. It's quite good. Oh that's good. that's good reader. He is a reader reader reader guys. I'm just. I'm just a smalltown boy from los angeles in in brooklyn right now such as me and my book. And it's how many company tommy's lie on your now he's in He's in the big apple Okay there's nothing to say. Eat a big. Let's don i love doing. The show from here is unbelievably luxurious. Get three extra hours depressed in the morning. I didn't know what to do with myself. Get room service on the east coast kurkin media life is pretty fucking great. It's incredible okay. I'm saying we'll just john. You're cool to know. I'm i've been in los angeles for over a year so five so there's a few few other things on this. In terms of the path forward. I do think level like you said you know. Fake t make it is the strategy here. I was somewhat hopeful. Reading a quote from amy klobuchar that she said at a press conference last week and she said i think we were just going to say nope. We can't do this because of senate rules we wouldn't keep going. Yeah which seemed to say that suggests that there is some guyana strategy. Although i don't wanna i don't wanna guess about any kind of strategy among the democrats because i've been disappointed before but i'm hoping that there is some strategy behind the scenes king said something similar to hang king says something like if this fails. I don't know what happens after that right. So the something similar to me to go. Of course. I calmed down. Gus gus king. Go trying to figure out trying to figure out what's going on with mansion and and the democrats There is there is a possibility that some of these provisions could end up in the reconciliation. Bill i'll give me a fucking break. I know you know. I believe this is going to happen so well. I'm just gonna tax credit not deny the right to vote. I'm trying to explain to our listeners. What's happening in that horse. Shit you put it. You could say that states get money for to administer elections only if they meet the following standards you must have automatic voter registration. You must purge the roles and blah blah blah blah blah. So would that fly through reconciliation. We don't know would some states that are maybe republican states. Opt out and decide to not take the cash like they have done with medicaid expansion for the last ten years. Yeah sorry. He's these governors tricky. Republican states decided to let huge portions of their population go without healthcare to make a point that they didn't like brock lavar. Still later you. They're going to do me like this is against our interests but we want that money to administer free and fair elections. Yeah that they're hearing very ali then. There's the question like is there a car is it not a carve out but are we going back to some kind of filibuster reform would mansion. Say okay forty one. Republican senators have to be on the floor the entire time in order to filibuster this bill and then hoping that some of the olds like chuck. Grassley finally get tired and have to leave and go to bed. You know. that's that's the other. That's the other hope here. Yeah i do beck betting on the prostate. Get out that floor. Yeah some of these guys at a p every thirty forty minutes you know. That's our i. I do but i do think that lead joe manchin you know. He's he has expressed in the past openness. To those kinds of reforms a lot of this is semantic. If you could do something that he can say is not a carve out it can still fit with what he said to jake tapper. There are a lot of place lots of places is can go. That are we are. We are because these are idiocy. We are because because Cal cunningham loves to fuck and we can't win a seat in maine. We're stuck with the idiosyncratic decision. Making of two people that are not acting in the best interest of country. And i don't know what that's that's the reality. Look on calcutta him. But i think you sort of glossed over the big fuck up in maine there now. Joe biden won that state by a lot. Yeah sarah gideon okay so homer still go to the main for a week and he's defending. That's was literally running in the second district cal cunningham screw mistress and surrogate screw. All of us cut that. I agree which i agree with you guys that i don't think that this cut the voting rights legislation into reconciliation. Plan makes a ton of sense for all you just outlined. I do think it's fair to say that you could argue that. The initial for the people act was a little too broad. I want public financing of campaigns to but that wasn't the acute threat that we're facing right. Now i think even amy klobuchar was critical of how expansive the for. The people act was so i'm hoping that she is working with this group of lawmakers that includes mansion that they're working on a a narrow down bill. They'll convince him to do something that gets us. Pass the filibuster and we'll actually get a vote on it. I mean my holding my breath. No but it is existential. And i think if you're going to be critical of the biden white house is the one place i do. Think they have not been fully engaged. And i i'm not exactly sure what they should be doing. But everyone that talks to them about this issue comes away feeling like this isn't the priority that it should be especially considering how much of his ability to get reelected lies with the need to hold onto the house by preventing partisan gerrymandering. So i do hope that there is a renewed push on voting rights once the biff for the bid or whatever the hell john is calling. These days is is through congress. I'm just. I'm very excited about it. Infrastructure dealer no. Your problem is look. I think i i will say that. I had you get to brooklyn zeppelin. You probably took a road or a fucking train. Our caribbean there was a plane john. I am for any very creative outside. The box solutions here. You know if they can figure out something in reconciliation. great. I'm doubtful but i'm for it. You know this is a this is a mint the the trillion dollar coin moment here. We should have done. Remember dilemma. Aerobics lucien yeah. Let's do whatever to get this done all right when we come back a love at night. We'll talk to dr. She jaw the dean of public health brown university about all the latest pandemic news pods save. America is brought to you by the new york times. The new york times is committed to seeking the truth and helping people understand the world always black history. Month may only be one month of the year but the times believes exploring the past present and future of black. America is a continual project so the times has launched a new series called black history continued that features a wide range of reporting unpacking the past present and future of black america. One story focuses on the rise of black superheroes and comic books. Tv and beyond editor. Veronica chambers dies deep into how black creators reinventing superhero mythologies and breathing new life into the format others examined the price of black architecture in the evolution of black hair. Plus you can now experience these stories in a whole new way with black history continued. Virtual events were black artists fingers and celebrities explore themes like black joy and black creativity. Who said it before. Say again bake fans the new york times here Pat save. America helps us. Do our job help us stay. Informed up the country stay informed. It's an institution institution that we love to candle in the dark was good handle. Good institution the dark. Ken on the wind can't the dark dark county win. goes out. both of them are good. Candalyn catalina goes out not this. it's the candle in a very is still still air. Seems to rightly seems to me. You've lived your life. Marilyn monroe digests. Now you're together when moore would have killed john to write a new song. Okay just saying anyway new york times finding replace. Wow that's amazing. I dunno more journalism. Might this will continue to be published throughout the year at a at an institution in new york times that does real journalism. You can find it all and more and new york times dot com slash. Black history continue. Melting pot of america is brought to you by squarespace buying a domain from squarespace. A simple because there are no hidden fees or price hikes. There's price hikes when you're trying to buy domain not start relief and not it's crispy so elton john eric clapton very clapton was like wanted to seduce a woman named martha anyone. I wrote this song. It's called martha and it was. Just leyla your place. Layla with martha people. We wouldn't think that was like super chill. You got me on my knees. Martha i mean. That's doesn't it doesn't work. New squarespace sells over two hundred. Top level domains. You can find the perfect name of your website. Choose a url that ends dot com dot net dot org or even more specific one like dot art cool new idea for a website. Other songs. elton john stands against it dot com or dot art. That's a good art. Go get him squeezes everything you need to grow online. Start with the design. Template news dragon tools to make it your own go to squarespace dot com slash crooked for a free trial. And when you're ready to launch the offer code crooked to save ten percent off your first purchase of a website or domain parts of america is brought to you by lifelock tommy. You know it's coming out. Yeah this is the saying if you love something set it. Free right but not your. Don't don't do that with your identity. Your license and social norton lifelock is gonna make sure you don't have to set your identity free because all those nights working overtime saving up all that money paying off all that debt now. Some identity thief wants to steal your identity. That's bullshit. no thanks. We're going to stop it from happening acid teens. Yeah that's you've been you've been out to get them for a while. I think it's the original fake news. People they ran microphones campaign. I think no different teens of the macedonian teams were the ones writing the literal fake news in two thousand sixteen before we rebranded it right right right anyway. That's why lifelock by norton helps monitor your info and alerts you to potential identity threats and if you do become a victim of dedicated us-based specialist will be there to help fix it. No one can prevent all identity theft or monitor all transactions at all businesses but when identity thieves. Try to take what's yours. You don't have to take it lying down. Save up to twenty five percent of your first year by calling one eight hundred lifelock or go to lifelock dot com use promo code. Psa that's promo code psa for twenty five percent off at lifelock dot com last week. The cdc issued new guidance recommending that everyone even vaccinated. Americans wear masks indoor public settings if you live in a community with substantial or high cova transmission what prompted the shift was cdc data that suggest the small percentage of vaccinated people who do get infected with kovic can in rare. Instances transmit the virus to others. But if you're anything like us you may have found both the cdc's communication on this issue and the subsequent media coverage confusing and or terrifying here to clear all of this up for us and more is someone who's been one of the most brilliant sane calming voices throughout the pandemic the dean of brown university school of public health. Dr shisha dr john. Welcome to the pot. Hey thank you so much for being here. So i feel like what was missing from last week. Cdc announcement was clear information. That could help. People especially vaccinated people reassess the risk to themselves and their families of getting really sick from the delta area so we are sitting here in a county with high transmission in la Were wearing masks in indoor public settings. But how should i think about other activities. I have an unvaccinated one year old at home we spend a lotta time with my parents were over. Sixty five is outdoor dining. Still okay outdoor gatherings indoor gatherings where everyone vaccinated. What do you think it is confusing. And there's a lot happening here. Let's breakdown kind of what we know and will be done now. What we have learned recently which is not surprising because we never thought these vaccines were hundred percent. Is that breakthrough infections happen. Sometimes you can have. You can be fully vaccine. You'll have a breakthrough infection. And then the other thing we have learned which actually we knew that number that yankees outbreak. The at the clubhouse like seven yankee players got vaccinated. People can spread it to others So that's not a huge surprise. I think fundamentally what people need to understand is breakthrough infections are rare and forward transmission. That is if you have a breakthrough infection you're going to give it to. Somebody else is also pretty uncommon and the most important piece of all of this is when it happens. People do really well. They have kind of miserable cold. They can be pretty miserable for a few days but they get better. Very very very rarely. Do people end getting hospitalized or dying from any of this so if you have that as your mental model is to start helping you make some decisions and by the way the other thing about delta virus variant is it is a bad version of the virus. But it's still the same virus still. Does the same stuff so outdoors still really really safe. Like i would not worry about outdoor dining. I would not worry about getting together outdoors with large numbers of people. Maybe the super pac outdoor concert might get a little a little uncomfortable. Maybe a political rally where. No one's wearing a mask maybe a little tight but other than that outdoor stuff is. I think pretty safe and on the indoor stuff you know the i thought about is if you're in a room full of all vaccinated people You're in really very very low. Risk of anybody passing on the last part of this is about assessing risk If you're with a frail elder and you've been out partying and you've been exposed to a lot of unvaccinated people might be reasonable to put on a mask because the risk of a breakthrough infection for that frail elder could be really quite substantial kids thankfully. Don't get sick very much and again i don't want to minimize covert and kids. There's been a lot of minimizing that But i have a nine year old. Who's not vaccinated. That doesn't fundamentally alter my behavior. I don't i don't do particularly high risk things. But i also don't worry excessively about him getting. Kobe is unlikely and if he does he'll probably do just fine. That makes a lot of sense One more question on transmission Israel's public health chief was on face the nation sunday and she said that their data shows eighty percent of vaccinated individuals who do become infected. Do not transmit the virus to anyone else. They said ten percent transmit it to one person in less than ten percent transmitted to more than one person. It sounds a lot less dire than the coverage around the cdc announcement. Like does that. Make sense to you. That data it does it does. And if you think about it it it clinically and biologically make sense right because if you are unlucky. Enough to have a breakthrough infection. You still have an immune system that very rapidly clearest the virus that means you're contagious for a very short period of time and you're not that contagious. So it makes sense that some people you may get unlucky and have an catch them in the contagious and they may pass it onto one person. But most people who have breakthrough infections are not going to spread it. This is why vaccinated people are not driving this surge. The surge we're seeing in america is all about the unvaccinated and vaccinated are unfortunate bystanders. To this so. Let's talk about. How that the disconnect between what the cdc has been saying and what kind of news coverage has looked like the cdc's presentation that leaked to the post. One of their concerns was that breakthrough cases would cause people to lose confidence in the vaccine presentation. Says they're worried. The public we convinced the vaccine is no longer working or that boosters would be needed important to update communications describing breakthrough cases as rare or small percentage of cases. This was the cnn lead of the on that presentation. The delta corona virus variant surging across the united states appears to cause more severe illness and spread as easily as chickenpox. The document outlined unpublished data. That shows fully vaccinated people might spread the delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated. People you know the cdc has been communicating via the media for the entirety of this pandemic. It still feels as though there's a disconnect between What they wished the coverage look like and what coverage of their of their communications ends up actually being for ordinary people trying to keep up with this. What do you think is gone wrong. And how the cdc communicates. And what would you like to see them do differently and there a couple of things i mean. First of all i think the cdc has largely been right on the side. It's an even here I think they were largely writes I think the there was one error in. This instance has come up. A bunch is that they didn't release the data along with their mission so early in the week. They said we are making this change because we are aware of data that data then leaked out two days later. It shouldn't be leaking like once you make the proclamation book out there right. This is not a national security secret like just an people and then basically explained the data people so they understand when data leaks. There's always a sense of ood. There's something more serious or sinister or bad going on that. It had to leak. That kind of stuff. I really does need to stop. One aspect of this surprising is that we did learn. One data point that led to the updated. Mass guidance was the breakthrough cases in province town. I i happen to have been there Protected because i refuse to party and go out because i was Still reeling emotionally from the last fourteen months. That was my vaccine being a fucking loser but But we're used but it seemed to me like there's protecting you your whole life. It never got cold dr the but it was. It was surprising to me that like that. This incredible stress test of the vaccine led to these this update in a broader way. When to me this was a case of the vaccine holding up really well under like a true live fire exercise. Were you surprised that the province town cases were were critical. Part of this update. I was i. I did not think there was anything from the province town. Update that surprised me in a negative way and let me explain to parts of its first of all the big headline number oldies c. T. values were the same for the vaccinated and unvaccinated by the way we knew that from the singapore outbreak as well so that There was an outbreak among vaccinated back people singapore at the airport about a month ago. A so so that. That wasn't a huge surprise. And the second is i keep trying to remind people the counterfactual imagine this seemed july fourth party in impede bound if nobody had been vaccinated. You know what we would've seen tens of thousands of people infected hundreds and hundreds of people in the hospital probably many people on ventilators and eventually dot and then a local outbreak that would become a regional outbreak right. This is now kind of sturgis rally. I mean this wasn't quite as big as started us rally. But it's kind of these things trigger these massive regional outbreaks. Did that happen. No it was. It was not great bunch of people got infected. A few people ended up getting hospitalized. Thankfully no one has died and then it sort of stopped. Because that's what vaccines too. So you've touched on this a bit about like the contagious of breakthrough cases in vaccinate people. One thing you is that it may take place but it might be shorter because they're in their immune systems are geared up. Actually not something that has been clearly communicated by the cdc. I thought this line from the times coverage of what the cdc has been putting out to be kind of captured to capture the confusion In some of the coverage doctor doctor will linski. The director of the agency acknowledged tuesday that vaccinated people with so-called breakthrough infections of the delta variant kerry just as much virus in the nose and throat as unvaccinated people and may spread it just as readily if less often just as readily if less often What what does that mean i like. Wha wha what does it mean what are what are they saying here. Yeah i i think that's a first of all. I don't think that's consistent with the signs. I don't think will they're their true problems here. One is the values that everybody's super excited about their close cycle threshold values by the way this isn't like a term for how for the test. Anyway the big picture bottom line on the values is cd. Values are not perfectly correlated. with contagious. Nobody cares about cd ballots. We get back. Data's the second is it's a snapshot in time so there is no reason to believe that people are who are have a breakthrough infection and are vaccinated can spread the virus as easily as on vaccine people. I just think that's inconsistent with the data. I don't know if dr wolinsky by the way is super her so she knows this. I don't know if she misspoke bertha was mischaracterized but this has been a consistent theme over the last week this idea that somehow vaccinated people are out there spreading the virus all around and they're fueling the surge they really art. That's not what's going on. Are you concerned at all that israel in the uk and germany have all decided to offer booster shots to the elderly immuno-compromised while our health officials are still debating the issue here like wind should vaccinated americans who are over sixty five or immuno-compromised. Start to worry about veira. Immunity potentially waning. Yeah the data from Israel suggests that after about six months there is a waning of Of the antibodies. Which mainly damore breakthrough infections. And so. i've been worried. And you know where i'll tell you i've been worried. I've been worried about nursing homes and congregate care settings if you think about it. Those were the folks who got vaccinated in december and january so there hidden that six month mark mark. Now yeah and you also know that forty some odd percent of nursing home workers aren't even vaccinated at all so we're going to start seeing in nursing homes and the spa has data on whether a third shot could be helpful. I suspect it is helpful. It'd be really great. If the stephania would make a determination. Do you think that's going to happen soon. Because i guess we're we're like you said we're almost at the six month mark for december january folks. Yeah yeah i it. It should happen soon. I mean there's been a little bit of like i think a lot of us have been Kind of scratching our heads at why. The fda has moved as slowly as it has on so many of these things. Fda received visor data on third. Shot booster you know a while back. And they should make from nation a bunch of other countries have done it and it'd be really helpful for the fda away and it's a bunch of people in l. a. are putting mustaches and getting getting third shots. Illicitly why you think about that. Well this is actually part of the problem. Is that if you if the fda says no we're gonna take our time guess what a bunch of people are gonna go out and do it anyway and the people who are going to go out and do it are better educated high information. Hi sort of social capital and guess who's not gonna do it. The frail elderly in nursing homes the poor people so the best way to create more inequities is to have a government. That's not super responsive agency. That's not super responsive to the data so speaking of scary headlines. Here's a fun from cnn. Over the weekend uk scientists believe it is almost certain a corona virus variant will emerge that beats current vaccines What is your reaction to that. Do you think we'll be able to update our vaccines quickly enough. If if that happens if such a very emergence efforts on deeply skeptical of Ever happening these. Vaccines are really extraordinary. In kind of the breasts of response that they write we have the vaccine's have now been tested against whole set a different bearings and they're holding up largely. Just fine i. I guess it's theoretically possible. I don't lose a lot of people read. But let's say that like it happened because a lot we've had a lotta curve balls in this. So let's say it happens. Yeah we've got Both maternal and spicer bionic that are very capable of turning around a new vaccine within weeks. And then the question for the fda will we will be. How do they test it. Are they going to require kind of long test times or are they going to authorize it pretty quickly. The regulatory stop is going to be much slower but the science on this can keep up with the virus pretty quickly so sort of last question on this over the last week i've seen a bunch of scientists and public health experts quoted as saying that you know herd. Immunity isn't happening. Cova will become endemic will basically have to learn to live with it for years to come. I know that's not actually as scary as it sounds but what is learning to live with cove it as an endemic disease. Look like from a policy in public health perspective. Yeah a great question and are two ways of learning to live with that right is is that do we manage to get pretty high levels of vaccination And then learn to live with it where we have a few occasional Kind of breakthroughs and And some people occasionally get sick but we develop some good antivirals and nobody you know. People generally don't die or get particularly sick and then we kind of go about our lives as an annoyance or do we have a learn to live with it. Where twenty five thirty percent population remains unvaccinated. We seen reasonably large outbreaks still happening among beyond vaccinated Spills over the you know the first version like life basically returns to a new normal things are pretty good. Economy's humming along restaurant syrup fall. People generally not worried right In the second version you have occasionally cities having to put in mass mandates. You have Places having to shut down you have like these kind of countermeasures. Public health countermeasures. We have to constantly being deployed locally in small areas. Hospitals occasionally fill up. We have to respond to that. That china think could go on for years. don't get to like eighty five ninety percent of people vaccinated. Okay well that is a Good warning dr. She's john thank you so much for joining us. We really appreciate you coming us and hopefully everyone else down. That was a great conversation. Really appreciate it. I'm sorry i am sorry. I cursed in your presence very serious person. I lowered the whole. you know. i wish. I thank you guys so much for having me on was pleasure positive. America's brought to you by magic spoon. We're all try and eat better but a healthy breakfast doesn't have to be boring. Magic spoon has the amazing flavors. You love but without all the bad stuff. Here's what i did recently. I have a ton of boxes of the frosted flavor because that's the original. I really miss the peanut butter and the chocolate. Because as you know you can combine them and have yourself a peanut butter cup for breakfast. Are you guys. Jerry i am. Here's some great frosted tips. Mike wow good now. It just happened just sitting here. A box of abuse visited tummy. Amazing a box of peanut butter and chocolate came to our house. Emily was like. Why are there more boxes of magic spoon on our fucking front steps right now. We have twenty five boxes of frost. I said i want my peanut butter and chocolate may told you this co created a marital spat house to it. Yeah it was. Emily was not super happy but all this week taken out both boxes pouring them into a bowl. Delicious had some this morning zero grams of sugar. Thirteen to fourteen grams of protein. Only four net grams of carbs in each serving on the hundred and forty calories a serving kito friendly gluten free grain free. Soy free low carb. He can build your own box and give variety pack with available. Flavors cocoa fruity frosted peanut butter blueberry and cinnamon who siren magic spoon is bringing back to super popular flavors cookies and cream and maple waffle permanently. How permanently to maple waffle. I can take it or leave it. Cookies and cream one of their better flavors will be ordering that soon when these flavors were first introduced for a limited time. They sold that extremely quickly. Let your listeners know. They should make sure to get these again or try them for the first time they're delicious and indulgent. I really think that cookies and claims one of my favorite go to magic spoon dot com slash triggered to grab your diligence cereal and try it today. Be sure to use our promo code crooked checkout to save five dollars off your order and magic spoons. So confident in their product is back with one hundred percent happiness guarantee. So if you don't like it for any reason though refund your money no questions asked remember. Get your next delicious bowl of guilt. Free cereal at magic spoon dot com slash crooked and use that code crooked to save five dollars off bank. You magic spoon for sponsoring this. Podcast part of america's brought by keeps two out of three men will experience some form of lost by the time. They're thirty five. Clock is ticking. Boys did you know that. Ancient egyptians rub their balding heads with a mixture of dates dog pause and donkey hooves ground up together in houston oil. That's not a funny anecdote. Love it did you know that yeah. I mean recipes on facebook to treat corona virus. I are works. Here it's really move over hydrochloric gwyn kind of horse men. Whatever down leaves collecting most of those ingredients. Today would make you a pretty bad person. Stay unproblematic by keeps. It's a great tagline for almost any of these products stay unproblematic by keeps keeps offers a simple stress free way to keep your hair convenient virtual doctor consultations and medications delivered straight to your door every three months. You don't have to leave your home. It's low cost treatments are ten dollars per month and keeps offers generic versions as well discreet. Packaging which was important. If you're getting hair loss. Medication proven results keeps has more five star reviews than any of its competitors. Prevention is key treatments can take four to six months to see results. So don't wait. Don't wait till you see that. It's not there anymore. Start act now. it's thinning out. Tick-tock tick tock. Yeah you can't take keeps for you your shower drain ladies and fellas if you partners losing hair. Why not suggest keeps delicately if you're ready to take action to prevent hair loss to k. e. e. p. s. dot com slash crooked. Receive your first month treatment for free. That's k. e. e. p. as dot com slash crooked. Get your first month three. K. e. p. s. dot com slash crooked. All right. I want to end with the story that caught our i over the weekend. Titled the real source of america's rising rage. Mother jones kevin drum did a fairly detailed analysis of why we become so politically polarized. Since the turn-of-the-century the century and he considers a few popular theories are belief in conspiracy theories are use of social media and our economic and social conditions but ultimately he concludes that americans believe in conspiracy. Theories has remained steady almost in our founding that our current polarization predates are increased use of social media and that people are about a satisfied with their jobs in their lives as they have been in the past. According to polls what's changed is americans distrust of institutions and anger towards government and that began just a few years after the launch of the most influential source of propaganda. The country has ever known it. Turns out that the co- vaccines those wonder drugs. That were absolutely perfect. That were more impressive than the moon. Landing the drugs. You are not allowed to question in any way. Don't actually work in the way. They told us they did. And now you want to mask us because you clearly failed in your effort to get us backdated because the totalitarian impulse with a new is so strong nothing makes sense. That didn't take long code hypocrite. Nancy pelosi already breaking or new mask. Rules republicans slamming speaker for what they call a massive abuse of power in the house. If this were covered tucker the way the riots of last summer were covered. It would be described as mostly peaceful. I think a great extent was peaceful. The picture that you've shown of the people who were in the capitol building milling around the guy walking around the senate chamber with horns on and so most of them were peaceful surprise. it's fox news So drumming knowledge is that this is not exactly a surprising or exciting conclusion but that while social media and conspiracy theories certainly act as fuel on the fire. It's fox news that set the country ablaze. He writes a love it what he make this theory and his reasoning behind it. I think it's very smart. I what i read the piece. And i shared it and what i actually want is a. I think being a did all that you need to do. You read the piece. You shared it robin. I did my part. But what did you hit that tweet button. What a what it actually does call for. Though as i think people who are more versed in the data that he is using to justify ruling out some of other causes to kind of push back on it where they can because it did feel like kevin drum has a point of view. His all of his articles have headlines like fox news. The root of all evil fox news killed my dog. sort of. that's his It's his beat. And it's a and it's a great beaten. He's very smart. But i do think that like it's hard to know what the compound effects of of social media plus right wing information could be another point actually is just that sometimes it's about misinformation about tone and the tenor of coverage and how how people communicate with each other on on social media. I also do think there are trends. That may be preceded the the changes in our politics that took place in two thousand but they kind of concluded over these twenty years one of them. Being the ideological shifting that led to a kind of less heterodox views amongst democrats and republicans. Some of the geographic sorting that. We've been seeing. So i think it's a really smart point. I think the key takeaway though is regardless of whether or not he's under emphasizing other causes to make a point is i think sometimes we like to talk about what's new when the underlying causes are so boring. Why is connor lamb mad at well. It could be because she's taken a position on to fund the police or could be because fox news is making everything worse. Why are we talking about vaccine misinformation and vaccine hesitant. Well it could be because of all these. Other ancillary causes could be because fox news making everything worse than sometimes. It's boring to talk about the same thing over and over again. We should concentrate on it because we actually just need to figure out. What the fuck do about it. Tommy what do you think. There's a very interesting piece. I think it's hard to point at one thing and say that's the reason we are more polarized but a lot of the pieces of the story rang true to me. He talked about how fox news almost single-handedly manufactured the hysteria over critical race theory. Anyone who works in the obama administration would not be surprised by that we watched. Them manufacturer controversies about the war. On christmas death panels ten suits benghazi. The lie the vaccine coverage. Now that what's changed. I think is the mainstream media at the time used to make the obama administration treat fox as real and credible in nonpartisan or like they were fair and balanced or had fair and components. Now i think that that lie has been put to rest a little bit. kevin rudd. Who's the former prime minister of australia. From the labor party has made similar observations. About how the murdoch empire has distorted politics in australia because it is just relentlessly opposed any sort of progressive economic policy. It pushes climate denial. You've also seen murdoch outlets fuck up politics in the uk. They fought for brexit and then look at canada where murdoch hasn't gotten into the market in their political process in debates are not nearly as broken. I do think that you know kevin's piece. Probably underestimate what we discussed this topic. Which is how gerrymandering has changed political incentive structures in this country. And you know if you had a fox news driving the republican party to the far right but fifty districts It would be disastrous for the republican party. Because america we have a unique thing which is party primaries and then party elections that are also popular. Elections are parties. Don't choose the person in the primary right. We we vote for them twice so if you were just getting far right candidates at of republican primary thanks to fox they would get trounced in the general election. But we had gerrymandered districts. So you don't you know the the challenge of like what to do about. It is in recent years fox has been supplemented by other right wing outlets that we talk about a lot. The federalist breitbart know there's social media things sites like parlor. there's newsmax is also facebook. He talks about how social media is exacerbating the problem but sort of dismisses it. I do think the problem with facebook isn't just sharing tucker carlson clips on facebook. The problem is also that like cunanan. Anti vaccine groups were able to organize in reach a critical mass on facebook and then get covered by fox. So it's this vicious death spiral happening. So i look at the end of the day. Fox's core product is like white grievance and fear i will never forget Twenty twelve in two thousand eight fox news found this one. Random member of the new black panther party just standing outside of a polling location in philadelphia in did roadblock coverage of this guy all day long are trying to scare white voters out of voting for obama. And that kind of tells you all you need to know about them like when the chips are down. That's what they focus on. That's what the side that they're on and that's their their goal is just to scare these old white voters out of progressive politics. I totally agree that it's an excellent analysis that does minimize a bit in my view the role of social media and i always think about the story that dan tells about The irs scandal in two thousand thirteen. And when that first happened you know. Everyone at the white house was like okay. It's another fox. Driven thing right fox only reaches a couple million people and so it's probably an inside. Dc fox thing. That's not going to go anywhere and people in most of the country aren't going to give a shit about this. And then we did a bunch of focus groups in ohio and everyone was talking about the irs scandal and the difference was facebook and that there hadn't been facebook or facebook hadn't really taken off in some of these paths scandals. And so i. I think that you know. You can't underestimate enough or you know. You can't minimize the role of social media especially facebook in giving fox just a new weapon To spread all of their lies and bullshit and conspiracy theories and i think fox news based sort of set the tone and they sort of drive a lot of this bullshit but without facebook without social media. i don't think you'd have the reach That you have today. And i think that you wouldn't people angry as you do today. Yeah i do think it is hard some of this. You can look for in data But the i think it's in this piece or maybe it's another peace talks about how everyone just kind of we know. The people in our lives wrangler. We know we see it in our lives. We see it in our families we see in our communities. We see it on television everywhere. How do you find that in the data. How do you. How do you source that point to what caused it. We're not doing a double blind experiment within america. That doesn't have fox news but does have social media. So i do think these things are ultimately hard to tease out. But i do think what. I took away from the piece is. Let's not take our eyes off of the challenge. Fox news is regardless of these other causes one of the greatest threats to this country and its future. It is every single day. And i think. Sometimes it is discouraging. Because we don't know what to do. But i do think. We need to be more explicit in f- in sang it. And do we need to have conversations about the kind of boycotts at work targeted. Boycotts we should look at the moment when fox news changed course and what caused them to change course. Sometimes it's boycott. Sometimes it's other forms of public pressure. I think we need to be more Proactive and more deliberate and more concerted in our attention to the threat fox news began. When you say we. I totally grew this like i think that Like you pointed out tommy. Reporters have gotten better about this mainstream reporters at at at calling fox out and being an confident enough to say that. fox's are propaganda outlet. They never used to be then. It sort of sorry where some of the media reporters would say it. People like brian stelter and stuff like that. And now it's gone to more mainstream reporters. You see some folks on cnn calling them out regularly. so that's good. But i still think like reporter should not treat fox reporters and people who work at fox as their colleagues should not show them like the fox exists to destroy the mainstream media and to undermine trust in the mainstream media and reporters all should recognize this and if and if they do recognize that they should say it publicly. I also think progressive donors right like you know i. I talked to stephanie. Valencia about this In terms of latino vote a couple of episodes ago but she pointed out that story that you know progressive donors. Liberal donors dropped fourteen million dollars in south florida in the last week of the election while republicans bought a radio station in south florida. For three hundred fifty thousand dollars that they turned into a right wing radio station so lot more. Bang for your buck there then just dumping money on digital's ads in the last week of election. One other one other distinction. I think that we should Stop pretending matters is the distinction between their quote news and quote side and their opinions. I'd huge is. He makes that point. It is obscene. It is obscene. If you had a fire department where six of the firefighters put out fires and three of them set fires. You wouldn't be like. I don't think we're giving enough credit to the ones on the truck that are helping you be like. That's a terrible fucking fire department. Shut them down. Shut them down. Don't call them. Drum makes the point in the piece that that's actually one of the big reasons. Fox's so influential because he's a part of the answer probably lies in the fact that fox news is cloaked in the trappings of news. And that's one reason you get sixty five percent of republicans and independents saying that they trust fox news more than any other news outlets right. It's not just tucker and hannity even though are the worst offenders and say the word shit. It's that they see other news that's supposed to be nonpartisan fair and balanced and people fucking by it. No no one knows. We are the only wants he. No there is a distinction. It's a bunch of white guys ties at desks reading news in like there's no like the kyron goes up when you go from news to the opinion side but just challenge you love it. You love it shows. Just get better for three hours. That's right. I mean like i in terms what to do. Yeah i give a lot of credit to groups like sleeping. Giants have gotten advertisers to stop advertising shows. Tucker carlson when he does or says racist things. I i agree that strategic boycotts are good. There's an effort called on fox. My cable box. That is trying to get providers to drop fox news from cable packages. But it's basically just a letter writing campaign and that and that's the broader challenge because fox makes most of its money by charging cable new subscribers. Like all of us whether we watch fox or not so you know. My hope is that long-term that their revenues will be hurt by cord cutting. But i think that my own self interest view here is that progressive need to create our own progressive media. Fight fire with fire doesn't have to be racist lying. Nonsense be a different flavor and tone than fox but like we need to make a counter argument. 'cause i don't think that these right wing outlets going anywhere i in fact i think they are growing proliferating because rightwing donors see them as political weapons to help them you know. Regulations stripped away and tax cuts. and it's an investment for them and it's paid them handsomely overtime. We always want more competition here crooked media where we welcome competition. I guess the no nobody. I do think actually like this points to another imagery that's part of this and actually away in which Like the yawning chasm where we have these super rich people with unlimited funds like influences our politics and other ways republican money supports right wing media and you know who writes really powerfully about that. Never heard of her. The the if you're going to say jamie i've never before jane mayer tommy. It was paying attention but but the but the but the further you get the last like liberal money like the grass roots gets behind someone like bernie but the further you up the money ladder you go. The more moderate become the quote unquote democratic like backers. So like you just don't have the same thing. There is no coke. Brother view talked to talk about Soros as like an exception that proves the rule but they look more like bloomberg you know like looking for a moderate centre-left or even a center option that a symmetry isn't going anywhere. Yeah and they're spending like billions of dollars on like deep polarization efforts. Yeah let's bring more people together at conferences status and that was really anyway so yeah we have to so fox's bad in conclusion fox news is bad. That's why you come here for hot. Takes that. I do they look. It's it's valuable to see a data driven case made like kevin did in that piece. Because i do think. Look a lot of very serious. Very smart good. Reporters would beat their chest in yellow. The obama administration yet when we didn't include fox news in some. You know round robin set of interviews with the networks and they made us treat them like they were on the level and they were not and that made the reporters who did that part of the problem and like pieces like this. I think help make the counterargument to one. Last thing i'd say too is one way i think you can take. You can deal with this in your own life. As i do think like a lot of political conversations are a lot of like what happened. What happened to our country. What led to this these kind of rhetorical big sweeping things. Just answer like ashes fox news. Yeah i know these that complicated. I think he's just made a bunch of people really angry hate our institutions and our government. We should fight and now we can move onto appetizers all right. That's our show for today. Thank you to dr. She's job for joining us and coming us all down Thank you tommy for joining us from brooklyn. Hey you're welcome you guys just this much cooler tommy thompson. Vw bus following. Jane mayer ran on tour. I i i put on the headphones just in time to hear Love it telling the doctor about how his lack of social life saved him from the delta variant so that was a treat for me. It was the highlight of the pod today. Switz- reality all right. Everyone we'll talk to thursday hot. Save america is a crooked media production. The executive producer is michael martinez. Our senior producer is slavia. Causes are associate producers are jazzy marine in the martinez. It's mixed and edited by andrew. Chadwick kyle is our sound engineer. Thanks to tiny so mater. Katie long roman puppet demitrio carolina reston adjusting how for production support to our digital team elijah cone. Phoebe bradford milo kim yale freed and nar melconian who film share. Our episodes is videos every week movies music celebrities making bad choices. Crooked media's weekly podcast keep it has it all hosts. Ira madison the third. Louis tau and i eat a osman joined by comedians actors musicians and more to discuss the latest ways pop culture and entertainment have intersected with politics and society expect fund guests award show grievances and plenty of shade new episodes of keep it. Drop every wednesday. Subscribe on apple podcasts. Spotify or wherever you get your podcast.

congress joe manchin ari berman united states trump cdc public health brown university georgia new york times eleanor lawrence john bevere john limit tommy detore bill lovett dr job Sara lazarus jim jordan Jeffrey rosen dr ronnie jackson David shore
Who's afraid of a big bad poll?

Vox's The Weeds

1:06:59 hr | 2 weeks ago

Who's afraid of a big bad poll?

"People often ask me. If prosecuting the mob is like the movies. Well i can tell you this. The real thing is much more interesting. I'm ellie hoenig. Former bob prosecutor and host of the new podcast up against the mob up against the mob lifts the veil on the world's most secretive criminal organization. Lakos unknow stroke. New episodes dropped every wednesday. Starting september eighth. Listen and follow up against the mob on apple podcasts. Spotify or your favorite podcast app. Hello welcome to the weeds box. Meet podcast network. I met mcglesias my guest today. David shore is. I feel like he's been on everybody's podcast except this one Over the past year or so but you know we talk all the time very smart guy. One of the smartest analysts of the political scene. And i'm really glad to have you here. Welcome and i actually wanted to talk way back to the twenty sixteen campaign because he worked on that and do polling public opinion analysis That kind of thing. And i remember after hilary clinton lost. There was obviously an incredible amount of second guessing. Like how did this go wrong. What went wrong. Bob and i always thought that like the most underrated point there is that the campaign did the strategy that they did because they thought they were winning right. yeah absolutely. I just like important to remember that right that like if the polls they had been looking at had said they were losing they would have done something different but they thought they were win. Yeah no absolutely. I think i liked to joke. That i have a boring consultant driven theory of change that you know a lot of people on the left you know they tell the story that no the reason why hillary campaign focused on these cultural issues didn't talk about these economic issues. You know was due to their donor base. You know not wanting to being neoliberal shells not wanting to piss off capital and i think working in the industry mechanically the way that politicians choose what to talk about and what not to talk about especially back then is that they would go to traditional pollsters and they would do these. You know four hundred persons surveys and they'd go in. They'd beat the messages and see how they respond. And they'd make some memos and that's term you know What what you run on. And i think in two thousand sixteen there was problem. Obviously the polls were all wrong Everyone going into it thought. The democrats win a landslide. Have a and all this other stuff you know. The i think the reason why the polls were on. I mean obviously. I think you're making a point that there were lots of problems that i think were cleared people. But you wouldn't take a bunch of political risks if you're ahead by ten points in the polls like if you know one. I think if you're actually a democratic staffer on the ground you're never gonna think. Oh should i should preserve my political capital. Shouldn't put my neck out to argue with potentially influential people And then you kind of have a whole mass people doing that because they think everything's going well. But i do wanna talk just a little bit about you know why the polls were wrong. Because i think it intersects with this strategic thing that we were talking about. Which is you know our main theory for why the polls were wrong in two thousand sixteen was this issue of non response bias. Basically the people who were answering these surveys were very different than the people who weren't answering these surveys and in particular they were different on one key. Variable which is social. Trust the like the governor's big government survey. They do every two years where they asked people. Do you trust the people around you or do you think that people can't be trusted and you know that. The percentage of people who say that people can't be trusted as fallen by twenty to thirty percent in the past fifty years which is probably very concerning but one like really operational thing. Is that people who say that. They don't trust the people around them are substantially less likely to answer phone surveys and that used to not very big deal because it used to be the politics was about whether or not you believed in universal healthcare. Not a question of whether you believe in conspiracy theories or whether you trust institutions but donald trump really changed. You know what it meant what it meant to the democrat in this country and if you look at this everyone talks about college versus non college but if you look among non college voters non college voters who say that people can be trusted. Trended toward democrats twenty sixteen and the ones who said that that people can be trusted trended toward republicans and so there was this kind of silent. Majority is kind of cranky. Conspiratorial non college whites was here. This is this is super important point right because you know when we we divide the population into demographic groups you know like in all different ways for for different purposes and part of what you do normally when you do that is. You're like trying to use attributes that it's easy to look up right so you know if you if you want to figure out like well if somebody a man or a woman is a black guy a white guy You can do that right and you can. You can ask someone very quickly on the phone like you have a college degree or not and if you look up in the census ride like the american community survey. It says okay. This is a high education county the low education if i wanna make a map or scatter plot based on race gender education age. You know it's like it's a moderately difficult to know what you're doing but it's it's easy to look this stuff Sometimes we can say okay. Like racial identity is of salient element of american politics and has been for a long time. The education divide. You know we've gotten used to talking about it a lot over the past four or five years but it's a little mysterious because like nobody articulates themselves as like as a college graduate. I believe right like that's not how people how people operate but college graduates and working class. People just differ along a lot of different dimensions and part of what you're saying here is that this is there's like a psychological construct that's actually driving the political change and the trusting. People are just more likely to have gone to. that's right. you know this. Divide that we see between you know educating people and Uneducated people isn't like a mechanical implication. Having having degrees there are people who you know get nursing degrees who are still quite conservative. It's more that they're happened. E. these two groups of people who really differ substantially on a variety of attitude nolan psychological measures. You know social trust is a really big one. If you look at racial resentment it is unsurprisingly. Also very salient. If you look at the psychometric people like to talk about openness to new experiences that you know some people when they see novel stimuli get excited and energized and other people like experience pain and that also happens to be super correlated with education and in two thousand sixteen. All of these things became much more correlated with politics. It's really hard to say like god. This is the thing that was the thing. But from a measurement perspective. It just happens to also be true that these people weren't answering service and so that means that you know the public and the democratic party. We're kind of flying by you. Know they were making all of these decisions on the basis that these people didn't exist And then turned out that they did win. And and you know again just like such banal point. But i think sometimes people think well. I thought hillary was gonna win. Because like i read nate silver or like i saw some dumb poll in the new york times but like this campaign. They were blundering but like they had the like the exact same bad information as anybody else. Any lead to a different approach rate that i think was substantially different from how prior democrats had run their campaigns. It was a much more on kind of focused on sort of like high toned a sort of objections to donald trump and like a little bit less focused on sort of like selfish motivations to vote for the democratic party than you might have heard from barack obama or john kerry or other people who went there. But i mean again. It's not like these decisions were made for no reason or because everybody went insane one day like they test the messages and they went with ones that that were testing. Well you just wasn't true and then unfortunately it happens again in twenty twenty and is that for the same reason like did everyone just like not fix their serving methods. Yeah i mean. I think twenty twenty was the worst year for pulling in literally decades. There's never been you have to go back to like the seventies or something to get miss As large as twenty twenty was and. So you know it's worth decomposing. Twenty twenty pulling air and kind of two different stories. You know the first story. Is this collared like this state. Polling air right like there was a wisconsin poll before the election from high quality. Pollster that said biden win by twenty points sixteen points or something ridiculous ended up winning by a third of a percent. And i think the source of that is this thing we're talking about like the reality is that we've seen in two thousand eighteen to twenty sixteen two thousand eighteen twenty twenty. We've all we've seen consistently polling. Air is heavily correllated cycled cycle and heavily correlated with the non college white. Jv electric and caused that is basically that. There's this new problem. Low social trust whites not answering the phones and it's very difficult to solve. You can't just ask people. Are you low trust or not. Census doesn't tell you like what percentage of likely voters in wisconsin or low. Trust or or whatever and it's something that you know. I've spent a lot of time thinking about but there aren't easy answers and i think it does challenged the business model of Attritional polling but. I think there's a second polling you know. Twenty twenty was worse than twenty sixteen in the in two thousand sixteen the national polls were basically right. It's just that on a state level. The you know in some places too high in some places too low in the same is true in twenty eighteen in twenty twenty. It was even worse in two thousand twenty the national polls were biased by like two three percent and the reason for that i think is very interesting. We do our our falling. We can match people back to voter files so we can see you know what primaries they vote in what their party registration. Is you know what we can see that. The percentage of people who answered our surveys who voted in the democratic primary was pretty steady right up until march of twenty twenty when it shoots up to the super elevated level and basically stays there for the rest of the election and we're now pretty confident there's like you can match this actually with like cellphone mobility to on a bunch of stuff that during the krona virus liberals responded much more and i'm using the word liberals not democrats non non liberal non white democrats. Actually you know this. This was less finish you but liberals responded to the pandemic by staying home and we can see this with cell phone location data just literally. What percentage cellphone pangs are at their home location substantially higher for liberals conservatives or for moderates and this this created a big polling biased basically conservatives. Were out living their lives during spring. Break whatever in liberals were stuck at home anxiously answering as many surveys. That good and you know this is. This is basically the bulk of why why the surveys wrong. There's like really interesting additional research. It's done since then. Showing like polling air was highly correlated with like local kovic rates. And all this other stuff but it just goes to show like all of this hard Measurement is this hard stuff. And so you get you get more liberals and then you. I guess you're specifically selecting for people who are very into like kovin non-pharmaceutical interventions sway sued. Like you both overestimate joe. Biden's vote share nationally house. Democrats voce nationally. But i assume you're also specifically getting a false signal that like stay home and be a good fao. Ci listener is like crushing it as a public message right and so like the arab feeds on itself because like you are oversampling the people who are staying home because of corona virus which is causing you to message a lot about corona virus right. And so you're like tripling down on this same kind of mistake in a way that if you had known well like a lot of people have kind of tuned this out and maybe don't care that much like you just like you would've said something out i mean again because we're were saying before you know. Joe biden hillary clinton consultants like these people are professionals like they. I mean i guess they like they sort of believe in what they're doing but they tried to run on things that they think will help them with. Yes absolutely and it gets you know i. I think one of the biggest problems you know in democratic politics politics general is that people who decide to go and vote their life to politics are super weird. You know we're all Super liberal super educated of in cities and it is very important as a technical matter. You know for us to understand regular people thinking because we have to persuade you know. Regular voters And you also have to. You know inspire non voters out to vote in. We're just very demographically. Attitudinally across a whole host of measures from the people who were trying to persuade or the people that were trying to turn out to vote and one really natural solution to that is to turn to measurement but it turns out that we're so everyone else even measuring the electorate of medium voters. It's like a very hard technical problem. So we're publicans have the same technical difficulties as anybody else and like they are also unrepresentative and in some ways. They're like even weirder like professional. Republican party staffers represent like very idiosyncratic group of people. Like young educated city dwelling conservatives is like a really weird like dislike. Not that you know you. I meet them. I live in washington dc. I know people who do republican party politics professionally. But they're not really like anybody like they're not like the other people who live in dc but they're also not like the conservatives meet visiting my in-laws in rural texas so like how come they seem to have navigated these choppy waters more effectively. At times i mean operating with the big financial disadvantage and and other kinds of things. I would say for the most part they historically had. I think there's a great survey that those and looks like ideological composition of donors versus the media in person party. And you know for democrats you know. The median donor. I think is a reasonable standard. Actually for staffers is substantially the left on both economic and social issues though much more on social issues than economic issues and also left on cosmopolitan issues. Things like immigration trade. And then on the right you see a you know. It's true that the people who staff the republican party are more cosmopolitan than the median republican but that pushes them toward the center because republicans are you know right of center and it pushes democrats away from the center and so that's one symmetry but i think the other point i think is more important. Is that the median. Republican donor is substantially to the right of the median republican on economic issues. And i think if you look back at the last forty years of american politics that has been a massive disadvantage for them. They've lost a lot of elections because the people who personally run the republican party have a deep personal desire to cut taxes on rich people. And i think donald trump's big innovation was that he deemphasize that he went out. I think it took somebody like donald. Trump didn't come from this weird class of you know globalist republicans to say let's campaign on lowering immigration and not cutting medicare. It's what the people want. And you know that people like us. We coated that. It's something very extreme. But i think what people don't realize is that donald trump twenty sixteen was rated as more moderate and basically any republican to run for president in decades in voters considered him to be substantially more moderate than clinton. So i think it just goes to show is very destructive to have your party. Be run by a weird set of insular elites and to not listen to regular people. And i just think that their success is really come from donald trump recognizing this in deciding to move closer to the median voter. Even if it's something that's horrifying. I graduated people. Well i think this is important. You know i i was. I was saying yesterday on twitter that i had never. I had never quite seen an out of power movement as on interested in like talking about a governing agenda as republicans are right now. And you know. I have a lot of liberal followers and award. There was a lot of like whether agendas fascism or well it's a cult personality of donald trump. But you know which is to say like people would have a very negative affect in reiterating. Exactly what. I was saying which was that. Republicans are not really articulating. A particularly ambitious policy agenda which to a certain viewpoint is like incredibly discreditable right. The you might say. Well you know. Paul ryan like i disagree with everything that he's saying but like he's got he's got big ideas he's got these charts he's got this. Pdf he could come on his reclines podcast. And they can talk about the big issues of the day whereas like today's republicans it seems farcical. But i think somebody who. Also i don't like a more. Typical person doesn't care about politics and also doesn't themselves have an ambitious policy agenda like this just seems more modern that republicans have become more like them like more interested in government less interested in writing long. Pdf's and perhaps seeming non-threatening like unless you're passionate in life is anti-racism education in twelve schools. Like they're not saying that they're going to do very much and that separate from the question of like are they going to do very much right. I mean i think we just saw out of the texas legislature after a very sweeping policy initiatives. But like that's not. What kevin mccarthy is putting out there as public message every day like he's not saying we've gotta make abortion illegal. We've got flood the streets with handguns. We need tax cuts for billionaires and that's like constructive politics like it's very restrained even as you might get seems a little zany. Yeah i think. Probably the biggest single i think analytical mistake i see a lot of my friends on the left make is i think a lot of people think that voters want bold policy change an actually status quo bias and the desire to not see policy changes. Probably the single most powerful force in american politics near the reality is that there is a democratic governor in kansas because the previous republican tried to slash public school funding and there is a republican governor in vermont and actually throughout most of the northeast in response in vermont. it was single payer but maryland. Who's because of an attempt to tax a arraign tax for asphalt so it just turns out voters really you know something. I like say voters about fifty years. Old doesn't have a college degree. Gives you like to say this a lot now too. And that really means that the appetite for radical policy changes a lot smaller than people think and you know if you think the midterms you know one of my favorite papers. I think it's heavily. Underrated is by professor. Joseph who me. I think he's at dartmouth. He published a paper. I think it's called like ideological balancing midterms in in two thousand nine and basically he went through and he looked at the past all basically all of the postwar midterms. And you would. He found that. I think was interesting. Is it's not necessarily. The presidents are unpopular during midterms Sometimes they are sometimes right. But even when presidents are popular the party that controls the presidency does very badly so we'd like nineteen ninety eight for example bill clinton's approval rating was nearly sixty percent. Need that you know. Republicans won the popular vote in the house by something like appointed view. And so there's this question. Why is there such a giant discrepancy. Why is it that there are all of these. People personally liked bill clinton and then decided to vote for republicans when they had voted for bill clinton presidential just just two years before and you know he goes through when he does serve as he makes the case that it really comes from voters not wanting policy change like people talk a lot about. Oh voters like divided government. There's a reason why they like divided government which is that. They generally speaking. Don't want things to change. And this is related to another very powerful force in american politics which needs a better name political scientists. Call it thermostatic public opinion basically whenever there's a republican president and republicans try to do things. The public moves left in the opposite direction. And the more. The president talks about an issue. The further they move to the left in response by we saw immigration. You know the public at much more liberal immigration during two thousand sixteen and why we saw the public get much more right wing on healthcare during obama's term. And it's interesting. Because i think it highlights one this idea that voters really do not want policy change. They're very risk averse very scared by the idea of external forcing them to do something outside of their control but also it means that the more you talk about something. The worst yet which i think is the opposite of. I think how most people think activism works. And so you know. That doesn't mean you can't do things. But i think that all of us the people who might work in politics primed really excited by trying to present things in the most radical way that you can think my friend calls it acid coding. And that's not actually how you went you know. In order to get people on board is what you want you wanna make. Everything seem really boring. Really reasonable or you want to not talk about policy change at all and i think just to go back to what you were saying. There's this interesting economy where two people like us going on television and saying politically charged or racist stuff. That's like very bad while going and saying that you want to cut taxes you know that's just like part of the game but to regular voters i mean. There are a lot less concerned by the former than the latter and So i think that right. Republicans have actually been playing very good politics in terms of just not an answering their unpopular stuff and there are some lessons we can learn from that. And then you you. Obviously you had the version that which was you know you saw in twenty eighteen that regardless of what trump's campaign was like when he became president would immediately happened was a rollback of people's health insurance coverage followed by a tax cut and there was a lot of journalism about that right. I mean the media has kind of. I mean biden is getting it now from afghanistan but this is kind of like pack like phenomenon and so for months that was just constant stories about healthcare policy and how republicans want to deregulate. Insurance companies and medicaid and like jimmy kimmel was going to be sad and and all this stuff and it was like it was disastrous for them to have like a detailed media. Focus on like. I don't wanna say boring but like nothing about republicans want lower taxes and less social spending would make you say like holy shit. Politics has gone insane this year. Right like someone who knows about politics. That's just what republicans have wanted for many generations But having focus on that made like a huge impact on voters versus like donald trump being a russian spy may be or other. He was like won't even care about the stuff that is normally seen as more interesting and the most boring staff seems to really move people. Yes i think it's a real truism. I used to always year. That people say you know the reason. Why democrats lose to intellectual talk too much about issues and we need to communicate values but it turns out that you know swing. Voters don't share our values if they did it'd be liberals and so actually the only reason people have voted for us kind of this these transactional issue positions Like if you actually go and you look at polling you know. People generally trust democrats. This replicates in other countries to you know on issues like health care on looking out for the middle class on education and they trust republicans on issues like taxes crime immigration. And you know politics. I think strategically is this game of trying to focus media attention on the parts of the issue space where we have media ownership and keep it away from the parts where we don't and it's a real challenge because getting journalists go and write a story like the republicans want to make it easier to poison rivers. It's hard to do and we managed to do it in two thousand eighteen. I do think it played a big role in why we won. I think a lot of people. Have this very nihilistic sense of politics Where they say. Oh the only even though. It's true that a lot of these motorist switched from obama to trump know motivated by racial resentment or by racism. You know this hour. There's nothing we can do about that. But if you look at a polling you know during trump's term his lowest point like the only thing that really dented approval you know among Vomit trump voters was all of this. Aca stuff in all of the tax cuts and it actually. It played pretty big role in why we're able to take the house back in twenty eighteen. There's a real sense in which the more materialistic we can make politics the better democrats do and i think it's clear that those are the dynamics but it's very difficult because i think that the people who work you know the people like us don't want i don't know they're not excited by the material stuff and there are a lot of forces even on our side. Push us toward this kind of post as politics. In a way that's counterproductive legit a break in. And i i want to dig into that idea. Basically anyone listening to this right now. And i'm willing to bet that you are. You're dealing with stress. Maybe there's a ton of it like an overwhelming amount or maybe it's like a low but steady drumbeat of background stress. But a how you're experiencing stress it's likely affecting your moods your energy and so many other areas of your life if you feel like stress is starting to take over. Strain your chips and shorten your temper. It's probably time to unload and better help is perfect for that. Better help is customized. Online therapy offers videophone and even live chat sessions with your therapists. If you don't have to see anyone on camera if you don't want to. It's much more affordable than in person therapy and you could start communicating with your therapist. Forty-eight eight hours among the stressors and get some unbiased feedback. You'd be pretty surprised at what you can gain for it. See if it's for you. The weeds sponsored by better help our listeners get ten percent off their first month. Better help dot com slash weeds. That's b. e. t. t. e. r. h. e. l. p. dot com slash weeds. So i sort of hear what you're saying about democrats and stafford see him in some ways. Less emotionally engaged in materialist politics on the other hand like the democratic agenda in congress is in fact. Very heavily focused on This kind of material concerns right. So it's you know it's it's child tax credit and some subsidies for childcare. It's dental benefits for medicare beneficiaries. It's you know. It's it's a bunch of seth like that right. It's like Shore recommended kind of stove. Wood strikes me is that he does not succeed in dominating the agenda like when donald trump was trying to repeal the affordable care act. It's not that like democrats in the house talked about healthcare. It's that media coverage of politics was mostly about healthcare whereas with a few exceptions i think since biden has been president this kind of agenda that he's been trying to push has just not really been the dominant storyline right. It's not what a sort of casual politics fan would not say to themselves. Oh this is what american politics in two thousand twenty one is about even though a like super literal minded person who like watches the congressional agenda would say okay with democrats are doing is like this healthcare stuff that's childcare stuff infrastructure stuff bobby blah blah blah. I mean it's not like the media is full of i. I kind of do feel like afghanistan. The media's full of wingers who were trying to sabotage the biden presidency but separate from that like prior to mid august like. That's not what was going on like most people doing journalism are left of center. Clearly like really did not like donald trump. i think almost all voted for biden. Whether or not they were enthusiastic about him but the coverage does not like reflect their. Their job is not to help. Democrats when elections but like they'd been doing their job in a way. That makes it very hard to sort of keep people focused on sort of transactional policy. Yeah i mean i. I met a rough spot where i think it is true. There's a lot of political science evidence behind this. The like you know. The coverage choices of media ended up having a really really big impact on public opinion and on polling the face of the democratic party but the challenge is one. I'm not an expert on why the media chooses to report on what it does but the second is that a lot of this is you know At point you make a lot is that the problem isn't the media doesn't want to write about biden's economic agenda is you know it's readers. Don't wanna read about biden's economic agenda but i do want to put a different spin on it than normal. Which is i remember once. I was talking to journalists. Who did some work for yahoo news where i think during the two thousand twelve election. He wrote like some basic financial explainers. How each of the two economic tax plans would affect people's finances. And you know what's interesting is that you know it's not that didn't get a lot of clicks reasonable number of clicks. It's that didn't really get the right kind of clicks. And so i just think. There's a really underrated structural thing again. I'm not an expert in this space. But i actually. I was analyzing some anonymous Web traffic micro data and what was really fascinating. You know if you look at fox news overall if you look by unique people stay in the last month who's on fox news article only like forty eight percent of fox news viewers in that sense voted for joe biden so like a little bit more republican country but not that much but if you look on an impression waited basis then it's like twelve percent and the reason is that there is a small set of maybe like five or ten percent of visitors who visit fox news dot com like one hundred times month and those people are super interested in politics super super right wing and so i do think something. That's really interesting. Is that in the old days back when you can only buy newspaper wants you can only watch the nightly news lots but now that we're in this cable news world in this online news world this. There's this segment of super super politically engaged. People who consume a hundred times more political content than everyone else and those people also are richer and more educated and have higher seats Than everyone and so. I think that this really pushes incentives in a bad place where i think regular people actually do kind of care about like how material things are going to impact them but all of the incentives for national media organizations is to cater to this. You know very hyper polarized subset of the electric. I don't have any solutions to per se But i i do think it's an issue. You mean obviously just part of it right. I mean if you do if you do digital media right and you're talking about an audience of working age people. You have a much better chance like white collar people who are checking your website. While they're supposed to be working is like a much they not only have higher incomes and like better advocates. But they just can't more time to be reading your content and they're also just like more likely to be interested in reading as well as having more more time to go do it right. So you kind of over index right. If you particularly if you're sort of left of center media you end up over indexing on this segment of the left of population that is highly educated and skews much more left on sort of social and cosmopolitan value and probably hairs about economic type stuff but not as much i mean at least not as directly are not the beneficiaries of democratic party anti-poverty proposals or efforts to extend dental coverage to medicare right like an elderly person who can't afford to get their teeth. Cleaned is just like probably not reading a lot of progressive digital media. You know and they baby are watching. Fox which is not telling them about this story which would be interesting to them. I think if they heard about it. So then you're really you're left with the kind of old fashioned network news right as a way that you sort of can reach that older audience. But he'd like. I go like months at a time without thinking about the nightly news on nbc as like a thing as a professional journalist. I forget that this exists beyond comprehension to me that somebody would sit down at seven. Pm turn on like the news for twenty two minutes and that's how they would understand what's happening in the world but it still seems to me like like it matters allied precisely because it's so like it's so alien to me right like they re just people who are not news junkies necessarily but do consume something. Yeah i mean you know one of my favorite. We're all very strange. Tax is medium. American watches about five hours a day television. That's like that's immediate number or people who watched the largest number of people who watch a lot more. That's per day but like you know those people mostly when you look at swing voters. think something. that's really interesting. This is good news for the most part. Is that swing motors mostly. Don't get their news from fox news. They don't get their news from breitbart this information. It's mostly doesn't reach It's mainly conservatives share crazy stuff with each other but you know they also don't obviously don't watch msnbc. They aren't reading box and for the most part. They're getting their news from the nightly news. It's actually you know the network news broadcasts are probably the single most important eggs or you know what ends up on the morning shows and it's nice. It's not something that we consume at all. Like personally i. I should force myself to watch it every night. I i don't it's very much not for us. Even though it's very important just to give a sense also you know the power of some of the social media stuff you know we. We've done a lot of polling And something that's really interesting is just that you know when you look at this frugal You know some of the approval stuff around ghanistan like twitter users fell much much more people who are consuming twitter news than the overall population Shows you know how Disconnected ninety percent of the population doesn't doesn't watch get news twitter so just another direction. I want to go in. Is i really think that in some ways you know the problems where we are over determined in that there are just a lot of structural ways in which highly educated highly politically engaged people have disproportionate power. Like you know we we were just talking about how from a capitalistic perspective. It makes a lot of sense to focus on them when terming media coverage there are a lot more likely to donate. There are a lot more likely to run for office. There are a lot more likely to be journalists and all of these things are true and are increasingly true. And at the same time you know this group of people highly educated. Highly politically engaged. Folks are also now way to the left where they were ten years ago because of education polarization there's a lot of different pathways for how we got were but i think all of them have gotten worse should sitting. You're talking about you pivot a little bit. Is that these broad trends seem to exist globally right and you shouldn't obviously like what happens in america matters a lot to american politics but that like in a big picture sense you see these same. Kind of Polarizing trends along education lines happening Throughout kind of western democracies so it it probably reflexively more fundamental than like. I don't like idiosyncratic choices by particular people. Yeah you know i. I think the biggest thing that people made going back to the happy place in the two thousand sixteen election again was analyzing trump idiosyncratically or psychoanalyzing. Him in there are all these people who are like. Oh you know. People are voting sousa celebrity host. Or because he's a winner other stop and i think that the right way to look at twenty sixteen is that really everywhere in the west. There was this underserved electoral niche of people who are economically moderate to center left and had very right wing views on immigration and other cultural issues and basically everywhere. You've seen populist right-wing candidates go and fill that niche and then when this happens we've seen really big coalition changes with previously right-wing educated professionals left and previously left wing. Working class voters. Moving moving to the to the right and this has happened in france. It's happened to germany. Sweden britain really everywhere in west You know it's even starting to happen. In spain and portugal. You know we've seen these transrapid and donald trump was just an expression of that and i think that you know in the context of the. Us politics is a really important point that it means that twenty sixteen was really in a lot of ways about issues and i think that's that's a radical statement to a lot of people but if you go you know we did a survey and if you looked at folks who agreed with us on healthcare in with us immigration that people barack obama got about sixty percent of that group of people and hillary clinton got about forty. And that's kind of the story of the whole election. And so i think one big takeaway is just all of this stuff. That's happening is a lot more concrete and driven more by concrete issues than people with death. But i think the point is just. Yeah this clearly is like a big structural trend that's happening everywhere it's not about donald trump even donald trump chooses not to run again. This isn't gonna go away. How did immigration get to be this kind of anchor point issue. I mean i remember. I'm i'm pretty. I'm forty i'm bald. You know i got a kid But i'm not. I'm not that old and i remember in two thousand seven. I think covering an immigration debate in congress and you know. Bush was pushing for immigration reform. There were liberals like ted kennedy. Who were working with him on that. There were moderate republicans. Like john mccain. Who were working with him on that. But there were also liberals like bernie sanders who were very opposed to the immigration effort. And they were right. Wingers like tom tancredo. Who were opposed to it. And lou dobbs was on cnn Constantly talking about how this was terrible and the what we all said. Journalists was that this was not a super partisan issue and this was like you know. I'm not talking about like nineteen seventy-one like american politics isn't polarized. We have weak parties right like you know. These books were already out. Red america versus america but immigration was seen as an issue at wasn't like that and it was hard to predict where different members of congress would come down unless you like picked up the phone and ask them what they thought and then very rapidly. This became a sort of like organizing force in american politics. I guess during obama's presidency but was that a strategy of his. Well you go and you look at the polling in two thousand six though is basically no like pugh has a time series on this. There was capital between democrats and republicans on attitude toward immigration and. I like to tease the older democrats. I know you know if you're fifty five and you're a democrat and you're a democrat. Then you decent chance you were you were against increased. We've kind of gotten about that. Which so there was no gap but they were also like mixed feelings in both parties. Yeah it was. It was like kind of you know the question was something like do you think immigrants make us stronger. You know what Or whatever and it was like pretty mixed for both democrats and republicans and what's happened since then starting in two thousand six. It's just kinda straight lined up so now it's like almost all you know self reported democrats something like eighty eighty eighty five percent have like pro-immigrant immigration attitudes in on the republican side. Things have just kind of stayed steady where they were and so. I think that's an interesting paradox. Here which is the integration is more popular than it's ever been though i think ultimately you know increasing immigration levels is still probably a blow otter idea. There are a lot less than it used to be. So it's not. The country is is getting more. Anti-immigrant are getting more right wing. Getting or whatever the issue is the salience has changed like it used to be that your immigration attitudes were correlated with who you voted for and now they've become very correlated and some of that is that a lot of liberals who previously might have had conservative ideas change their minds you know people like bernie sanders but a lot of it is also sorting that basically you had a lot of pro immigration republicans that were out there have sent you know who are disproportionately educated switch to become democrats in a lot of the working class white and non white people who had immigration sceptical attitudes have switched to become republicans. And so you know. I think just talking about these broader trends. I wanna go back or their history. Which is all of these transient happening everywhere and they've ultimately been happening for a very long time and it's worth getting a why this happening. I think this tell a story with immigration too. Which is you know. I like to tell a story that immediately after world war two there was about four percent of the population had a college degree or at least the elected. If you go to now twenty twenty. That number is more like forty percent. So there's been this. Massive massive shifts in the percentage of the population that has a degree and just to go in a another factoid. Is you know in the forty s. Eighty percent of the population hadn't even graduated from high school. And that's a satirical category. The early exists anymore. It's something like four or five percent. Yeah i actually think that's super duper important because a lot of people certainly know this stuff about education and working class and they have some ideas about like the new deal. And i do think it's important to understand that like at least an educational terms like the new deal era. Working class is essentially a closet does not exist today right now. We can think about like what that means that and how it is but like the people who were voting for fdr where people who didn't have high school degrees and college graduates like we're still like running all kinds of things like there. Were doctors and ceos companies but it was not an electoral constituency. By get all right like you. You couldn't tell whereas today that like didn't finish high school mass. I you know i. I don't know what what class vocabulary wanted us. But like those people are all dead like they're not they did they didn't become republicans stay. They're like literally got no. I mean that's that's exactly right. And i think that in the nineteen forties it's chevy to said hyper educating evil. They still existed. They still wrote political theory. They still ran. Basically every institution in the world and every political party but they still new the new public back. Then you couldn't fool yourself like you couldn't be in a in a bubble like he was very clear that the rest of the population didn't agree with their views on On social issues and so there was a lot of incentive for center-left leads to to not push on these things. You know the. I like to call it you know. There was a lot of messaging restraint and preference falsification. And you know. I think one of the few times broke the nineteen seventy two presidential election one. That was in a celebration of education polarization like governed unusually bad in west virginia and usually good in cities and but like you know he ran the two thousand sixteen hillary clinton campaign in one thousand nine hundred seventy ninety seventy two and it went very very poorly and so i think that that there was a lot of incentive to engage in a lot of restraint and i think that now now that you know this class of people that was like miniscule is now like forty percent from the country. It's a lot easier like all of these. People can now live in entirely super educated and super liberal bubbles in that can And the incentives for this restraint is You know a lot lower. And so i think you can kind of see the last twenty years of politics as you know. The democratic leads increasingly feeling like they don't have to be as strained as they used to be and to some extent. That's that's true. There are all of these demographic trends that have helped the country is much more secular. It's much more educated it's a lot less racists. Under a lot of different measures you know than it was twenty years ago or forty years ago but those trends have happened a lot faster in the areas where they live you know. New york has changed a lot faster than the country overall. And i think it's led to them over shooting and i think that you know that that's led to this caller Premature polarization on all of these different issues. If causes problems. Immigrations like a big symptom of that. The y. you know. I think you talked about overshooting but you used the term earlier that i think people may not know Preference falsification which i think is sort of sort of important to this dynamic. Because part of what's going on is that you may not be able to win an election with like college graduates but there are enough college graduates around that like if you yourself are a college graduate and you mostly socialized with college graduates and you live in a highly educated part of the country and you exist in a virtual community in which other college graduates participate to state that you have views. That are more like those of fifty. Something working class person is going to be very. You know like a like an unpleasant experience. I think people sometimes overstate this. And they're like There was this kind of crazy and applebaum article about puritans and stuff like that. It's not the end of the world if your friends yell at you but like people don't want to be yelled at by their friends and it's no longer sort of i think people in the forties like tiny minority of educated elites must've just like lied a lot to people to try to make their ideas and attitudes seem more acceptable to the public and other. I don't know what they went to their fancy clubs and they were like you know like we've really got one over on them or or something and it just feels like that doesn't that doesn't work today. That like wind biden tries to strike a sort of america. First tone on something like everybody gets mad at him right like in a very sort of public way and you know. There's something good about that like. I don't wanna be like everyone should lie more because this like there's reasons to be honest and there's reasons to want politicians to not be lying constantly but like i do feel like traditionally buying like an important an important part of politics. Yeah you know. I i think a famous back in terms of power hyper educated Liberals have a lot of power in a lot of different ways. Obviously as i said before we vote more we donate more for office more. We disproportionately staff media and political campaigns. And so that gives us a lot of power need a lot more power than we. Did you know ten years ago or twenty years ago due to a lot of complicated social forces in. I think that what we're seeing is class exercising this power and successfully being able to recast the democratic party in our image and i think there are some upsides to this though. I think you know morally once suggested that i like. Is that if you look at people. Who voted for joe biden. There are three times as many moderate or conservative. Non white people who voted for joe biden as there are very liberal white people who voted for joe biden and yet the latter group is infinitely more represented in terms of the media in terms of of really anything and think. The story is that look. I mean i. It's a little morally dubious like hyper educated hyperprivileged group of people like you know. Maybe you're use our veterans navy. It's good We care more about things like climate change than than Working class black people or something. But i think that the real impact. This is that as we've been expressing this power the non liberal masses who are a majority of democrats are leading the party and that's true for non liberal white people on it's true for non liberal non white people like you know we didn't talk that much about twenty twenty but there was a nine percent swing against democrats Among hispanics in twenty twenty and nearly all of that swing was something like a twenty to thirty percent declined among the forty percent of hispanic sue identify as conservatives. So you know. I think it's it's true. You know part of the ways that we used to exercise constraint was just like not being as honest but we want but now Now that we're not doing that anymore. I just want to warn. There are some downsides right. I mean you know. they're obviously. Are you know what i think. This point about hispanic voters people have been talking this kind of declined to death in different ways. But you're something that. I find a little frustrating about the dialogue. Is that the group of people kind of do this professionally in democratic party circles. They're very attuned now to this issue of erosion of latino support. They're very interested in getting people to pay attention to it and do something but the also talked constantly about misinformation and need to make more investment and obviously misinformation is bad investment is helpful in politics but it seems like they don't want to articulate up the chain like you have to try to imitate the views of the voters who you want to get to go. Vote for you right. And that like a lot of latino people have moderate policy opinions and if you combine having moderate policy opinions with seeming like. You're not paranoid about latino. Immigrants wrecking the country. They might come. Vote for you but if you are strongly pro immigration but like also say all kinds of things that they disagree with. Then they're not going to vote for you and that's like really banal but it's like it's hard to get the votes if people if you delivering messages that they don't agree with you. Know i. it's not instance that the two groups that had swung the most from the democratic party in the past for years you know non-polish whites and non whites also happen to be the people who are most likely to identify as monitor conservative. Like i think these two problems for the most part are really the same problem that working class moderate conservative people don't feel like they're being offered anything by the branding By either the branding the policies of of democrats and i. I'm not sure what the solution is. My guess is that it's try to sound more moderate and try to have more working class messengers by think. It's worth being clear in the diagnosis about the problem. That you know if you go and you look. Twenty percent of the population is liberal. Forty percent his moderate forty percent is conservative. Contrary to what a lot of ideology truth. I will tell you these ideological self syndication labels are actually very important. And i don't know we should. We should take seriously you know that. Eighty percent of the country doesn't necessarily see things the way that we do. Okay but here. Here's here's the thing because you know there. There are a lot of truth about this. And one thing. That's true is that it's pretty easy for me to sit here. And google up some polls that are gonna show that like seventy percent of people Want stricter gun control and are very worried about climate change and you know a million other things and like yeah. Maybe like defunding. Police is like not so popular but like all of these kind of mainstream liberal ideas like they have these great coles and so you know. These moderates like they've really want this progressive agenda where we're going to tax the rich and we're going to do all this other stuff and that's like i don't know i mean i was like kinda brought up in that tradition and just like i do like i see i see those polls everywhere Showing like tons of liberal positions on all kinds of issues. Yeah i mean. I could talk about this forever but i think there's a real. I think there's a real problem. Which is and i say this as someone who works in the pulling industry which is that. The market for issue research is basically nonexistent except for propaganda. That basically all issue polling. You see i have friends who are employed in this complex are funded by issue advocacy groups that are specifically making polls for the purpose of being able to say i. It turns out. Eighty percent of people support this support. That i think gallup you know they've been doing this for a really long. Time is actually like unusually good in this regard at being good at crafting questions in a way. That doesn't cause problems just to talk for like a minute. About one of the big problems is there's something called survey acquiescence bias which is a fancy way of saying if you ask someone taking a survey whether they support a policy or oppose policy. They basically like they give them a yes or no question. They usually say yes. This is why ballot measure polling for example tend to outperform the actual election result by ten points. There's this truism with ballot measures if you're not at sixteen you know you're going to lose And that's like one of the big mechanisms for why some of the good polling in instead of doing a yes or no question will present alternatives. It'll be things like you know which of these statements is closer do views. Do you think that regulations on guns should be more strict or less strict. And when you pull things like that suddenly becomes fifty fifty And so really just turns out another way illustrate this. Nobody does this because pollsters you know all liberals but if you poll questions like should we cap income taxes at thirty five percent. You know republican ideas. Those also ended up being super popular. And so you know what i would say is that you know the reality. Is that all of our. Proposals are not nearly as popular as you think. I think i've pulled something like a hundred different policy measures since the beginning of the year. And you know something that comes out is I think something like sixty percent of the proposals that we've done you know are above water and popular and if you look at things like joe biden sport. Afc would like thirty percent of those things are popular. And i think that's great news. I think you know as progressive. We can focus on that on that. The focus on that thirty percent democratic party focus on that sixty percent. Like i'm not a nihilist. Like some things legitimately are popular in some are unpopular. But we shouldn't fool ourselves. I think there's a lot of damage that gets done by all of this propaganda. That tells us that all of our stuff are extremely popular. And the reason why it's bad. Is that if you think. Oh all of our stuff is really popular. But we're still losing elections. You'll then turns up the reason why is because of the corruption of the democratic party or fake news. It's getting into people's heads when the reality is that people agree with republicans on a lot of things particularly on taxes on immigration on the scope of government and agree with democrats on a lot of things like health care and education And if we don't understand this tradeoff in the implications of it in terms of how we should talk about things what we should do. Then we'll lose and that's you that sort of loops back to where we started right. Which is that you know. There's a there's a craft to all of this and if you don't know like if you don't actually know what people want to hear is really challenging to make decisions like even if you want to say. I mean which i think is reasonable like sometimes you know something really important and you want to do it even if it's not popular but then like you don't want to talk about it right like you want to try to make sure you can do it in secret and certainly like you. Don't wanna do twenty different things that are unpopular like all at once like you have to think card okay which of these is actually the most important or what can get away with doing with people. Not paying attention or conversely. You might have an idea that like you're not that excited about the doesn't seem that important but it's like everybody loves it so you know you should. You should talk about it right like like. I don't think you know i. I don't think that conservative policy elites sincerely believe that whether or not a high school teaches people about the new york times magazine. Sixteen nineteen project is like one of the most important topics in the political domain. That they have just decided to put this on the agenda for various reasons. Like i don't know like that's fine. That's you're allowed to play the game of politics but you have to have some sense of what's going on or you're not gonna you're not gonna do it right. Educated like if sixty percent of your ideas are popular. it's like really not great to drag them down and lose over other ideas that then also don't happen because you lost the election anyway. Yeah you know when i advocate. Ver- popularism something. I do like to say look. If we implemented every single democratic policy proposal that was extremely popular it would be radically transformative in changed this country. And i don't. I don't think it's anything feel bad about any of the other thing is. I think it's important not to drink our own. Kool aid in that there are there are issues that might not substantively be very important but like might be politically but i think as a party were very bad. I understanding what those issues are where you know if you look at background. Checks for example objectively. They're not a lot of progressive gun. Policy is not like super important. You know in terms of lives saved the scheme of things. I think you outlined this really well but we have this like incorrect belief that it's like this massive political and i think there's a lot of examples of us just like fooling ourselves into thinking that all of these things are actually really good and really motivating. And so that's that's my measurements. So important Otherwise you really can end up wasting a lot of time on rain space on stuff. That doesn't matter or might be counterproductive. So you know it's like it's important to measure but it's also hard which is where we started and do you think from a technical standpoint like has this been improved at all like when people head into like midterms are just like is is objectively difficult. And you know there's a limited amount that campaign tactics can do for you. But are the people making tactical decisions in the nevada. New hampshire and wisconsin and pennsylvania senate races like are they going to be equipped with accurate information about the lay of the land. Or are we really kind of flying blind here. I mean these are all very hard technical problems. And you know. We'll see in a year however pollsters end up doing but you know. I think that you know the is big picture insights of like you know we should try to figure out what's popular we should not A nazi things. That aren't our understanding. That actually you know. Every all of these policy priorities aren't necessarily super popular. I think that the people who work in the democratic party at least in terms of actual literal campaigns people dnc. or whatever. I think you understand these things and generally are pretty pragmatic minded. And i think that makes sense from an incentive perspective. It's their job win. Elections in the care very much about whether or not they win elections. But yeah i i think the big danger not to go into a whole tangent is just that these people in control a smaller smaller part of the democratic party brand and even democratic party spending that like now super pacs foundations issue advocacy groups liberal media all play like a much more important part of story and i think that because their day to day lives matter are less time to winning elections and i'm not faulting them. They're not like. I think that the first people who work in campaigns this point of re educated about like all the problems different kinds polls and like how to measure things and i think they're doing the best they can but if you're a liberal journalists box that that's not your job you're not going to do that and You know that will lead you to make different decisions. Those decisions will actually ended up being. So i think it is like a big issue that i think if it was just up to joe biden to determine the branding of the democratic party. I don't know win. Winning midterms is a very difficult thing. But i think you know we probably mostly do the right things. There's a whole other massive people who have less incentives to get this right and study closely and who might not see it necessarily as their job even if you know what they do is very important. So it's kind of a hard situation. Yeah i mean. I know the media. Is i think the the sort of like the hardest angle off there were. I think can most credibly say like. That's not the job but there is this. You know middle layer of like nonprofits and advocacy organizations and activists groups and then foundations that fund them and super pac donors where i mean it kind of is your to win the leg. I mean it's a. It's not like just your job to win elections if you are like an environmental organization and you're trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions but like there's no way to reduce carbon emissions. That doesn't involve people who want to do that. Winning elections. And i don't know i i wish i wish they would all take a little more seriously little say. I want to be too nihilist about this. I think that you know everyone on nearly everyone in the system you know. Asc are very earnestly wants democrats to not lose control congress in twenty twenty two. And you know. That's why. I think that even though people are subject to their ideological biases and that's like pushing them to one thing or another. I think everyone does really earnestness earnestly want to win. And i think there are some like technical. Technical problems are underrated here I personally seen in my you know my work. You know I try to sell this kind of stuff. Relenting is that there's a lot more interest. I think both on the left end in the center. You know in like trying to be more careful about what we say. I think that twenty twenty did go very differently than i think other theories would would predict and i think that folks are changing their behavior slowly in response to that whether that's enough. I don't know it's very hard to win returns. I will let you go after that but thank you very much. David chore thanks as always to our sponsors thanks to our producer net. smith's dock And the weeds. We'll be back onto a.

donald trump biden democratic party ellie hoenig Former bob Lakos David shore hillary clinton republican party bill clinton fox news hillary obama wisconsin joe biden medicare nate silver dc
One Needle to Predict Them All

Slate's The Gist

32:10 min | 9 months ago

One Needle to Predict Them All

"The following podcast contains explicit language Tuesday january fifth two thousand twenty from slate. The just i mike pesca and onto to the most compelling story so far of two thousand twenty one the president rejecting the results of the election and talking about it on the phone right now and that's not it races to determine the fate of the senate not bad boards most compelling which i speak from being dad we last left being dad the musician podcast john roderick. He had been hounded off the internet to do his tweet about making his eleven year. Old figure out how to open a can of beans by herself. Well not hounded bean. Dad admits he shamefully caved. He needed to face the music in an apology on his website. Being dad writes quote. Id activated my twitter. Yesterday in a panic he went on to say my story about my daughter and the can of beans was poorly told. I didn't share how much laughing we were doing how. We had a bowl of pistachios between us all day as we worked out the problem. We're that we both had a full breakfast together. A few hours before in other words he didn't levin it with some hand holding to tell people it's okay it might have seen serious. There might have been tension at the time in my conveyance and yes. Tension is a form of drama. But what. I really needed to do as a sure. The audience that a nine year old didn't have to go six hours between meals. He went on to add my friend. The story with me as the asshole dad. Because it's my comedic persona and my fans and friends know it's a bit. Well not just his friends or fans because of the screen shots. I saw just a snapshot in time but the tweets were getting a lot of love here. The first one said yesterday my daughter nine was hungry. And i was doing a jigsaw puzzle so i said over my shoulder. Make some baked beans. She said how like all kids do when they want you to do it. So i said open a can and put in the pot she brought me the cannon said open it how with a can opener is said incredulous. She brought me the can opener. And we both stared. I realized i'd never taught her to use it. Most cans now have pulled tops. I felt like a dope. What kind of apocalypse. Father doesn't teach kid how to use a manual. Can opener all right. Those are the first to post. I read and from the screenshot. I saw that second. One had ninety eight comments and one point seven thousand likes you know ratio getting ratio it online. It's it's when there are more comments than likes and supposedly this means that people are calling you out. You're getting your come up clearly. It wasn't the case with bean dad. His intended audience seem to like this story ratio. Really meeting was by the way cause some quotes questions a call for engagement. So they're going to get more comments. And some in groups will like others really horrendous tweets because looking at a lot of cunanan type tweets assailing a blameless georgia election worker. Hundreds of people like those. They were barely comment. That apartment so being dad was i rewarded for his story. As as i read it. I think he should have been there. Were delightful little grace notes quote. I told her stories about some of the great cans. I'd open to over the years. She rolled her eyes. We talked about industrial design. And what a funny little device. The opener is and the tone really gets no crueler than that. There are some tough love but also a lot of love love quote. I've been tempted many times along the way to guide her hand and wanted her to experience the magnificence of the can opener so much. I couldn't stand the suspense. Neither of us likes baked beans that much. The cupboards are bare so it seemed like a paltry reward for this work. It's a nice story. It uses twitter well. Bean dad was sale. And ken jennings got involved and the podcast. My brother and my brother and me dropped bean. Dad's music as their theme song. Right and so now being dad apologizes writing. I've conjured an abusive parent that many people recognized from real life. I am deeply sorry for having precipitated. More hurt in the world for having prolonged exacerbated by fighting back and being flippant wind confronted and for taking my twitter feed off line yesterday instead of facing the music which the parents i modeled didn't exist and which no one had to grow up with a parent who tortured them physically or emotionally would never intentionally make light of those experiences. And i'll never underestimate again. The pain i caused with some poorly chosen words and bhai acting defensively when challenged. Hey who am i to tell a person. You shouldn't be sorry for hurting someone else's feelings you should be sorry for hurting someone's feelings as a general rule and there was also some older content dredged up in the being dead deep dive some ironic racism that being dad should absolutely apologized for ironic. Anti-semitism that i say about i was put off though by the entire tone. Jose seemingly forced confession a public square rending of nature. To it in fact i hated that it needed to be done but i guess been dad. Thought it did. He wanted his career. Or at least it's twitter feedback. I object to the abject nature of it. But that's how he thinks he's going to get on with his life. I did think that this was an example where we have all heard ourselves by so demonizing the conditional apology. The if you were offended or to anyone. I may have offended. We treat that now is if so facto in sincere because often in the past that has been but now you can't even try it because it will without exception be interpreted as adding further insult to the original wrong and being dead knows. You can't do that so he didn't try to do that or else. It would have undermined all his efforts. But i say this is exactly the case where you might wish to say if my exaggerated character of the gruff dad reminded you of your actually hurtful father well to those in that camp i really am sorry about that and i think that would have been a sincere apology but it could have been a conditional apology which no longer exists. Those have been defined as non apologies. I don't wanna be overly dramatic about any of this in stating that. Huge parts of our society are now subject to the victims veto but it does seem more true than it ever has been before pendulum. Guess it needed to swing a bit. It swung quite a bit more than. I'm comfortable with than i think. Art should be comfortable with or even self expression. I mean these. Little wounded grievance sparrows huddled together alert to any sign of predators. They're not even fully birth. I think of them as hatchlings in a spotty incubator blinking on and off they must be attended to at all costs again. It is not the death knell of a once robust culture. We will survive. I can't say right now however we're thriving on the show today now that i'm done with twitter threads onto newspaper needles. He's back now. Remembrances of trump. it's not just trump who made trump trump it's great observers of failed presidencies. One said all the president's men well the president's men who were said to be at the heart of the nixon scandal were ivy league-educated military veterans well-qualified political operatives or in most cases all three of those things all president trump's men could have picked any number of examples. But let's just remember three. I there was this guy. You'll chiron talked about a crisis you'll reporter talked about a bunker mentality. i actually work in the west wing. I work in the white house. It is absolutely nothing of the kind. We are pushing the make america. Great again agenda. The president is a steam locomotive. That will not stopped. It's just fake news. Sebastian gorka was a white house adviser. For the first eight months of the administration he went on to host a radio program on the salem network. He prefers to be called professor gorka though american academics who have reviewed credentials from a hungarian university described. Them is not up to american. Mostly western standards gorka was arrested once on hand gun charges during the entirety of his tenure. It's been reported that he added an arrest warrant out for him also on hand gun charges. Then there was this guy. Roger is the last victim of the russia hoax the last and we know. Now that the russia house the russia investigations the accusations of trump campaign Conspiring with the kremlin in order to defeat. Hillary clinton that canard. That's michael caputo. Caputo hosted a show on buffalo radio station for years. Then a podcast. In april of twenty twenty he was appointed assistant secretary of health and human services where he attempted to intimidate officials into suppressing negative news. About covid six months later he took medical leave after ranting on facebook about hit squads and predicting that he would be killed by enemies. Two days after he left the department reverse they're medically unsound advice. That a symptomatic people who've been in close contact with corona virus carriers. Don't need to receive testing and finally let us remember. Stephen miller the end result of this though is that our opponents the media and the whole world will soon see as we begin to take further actions that the powers of the president to protect our country are very substantial and will not be question miller and high school ones jumped onto the track during a girl's relay race to show that he was faster than the female athletes he went on service aide to jeff sessions is credited as the rhetorical and actual architect of the trump administration's immigration policy and has worked in the trump white house for four years and this has been remembrance of things trump david shore is back to talk about elections specifically electing democrats and what he has learned from studying voters politicians and his fellow campaigning. Excellent old david shore is a data analyst. A synthesizer of information. He helps democratic candidates. Get elected david is twenty eight years old now has been at this for a while. He worked for the obama campaign when he was twenty and as an eighteen year old he developed a busy and get out the vote system. That created probabilistic partnership estimates for every registered voter in one montana state senate district and his candidate wound up winning by two votes unseating. The incumbent republican want to think of the guys Prodigy think of him as a prodigy might get embarrassed. But it's true. But i was interested in asking data prodigy. What's the role of emotional growth. The intellect might be extremely advanced. Are there things that only an older person can truly understand because of emotional development and definitely a lot more mature i. I'm not claiming mature now. But i think i'm more mature than i was two years ago or four years ago. Definitely ten years ago You know it's a funny thing. Just because i recently but you know i started working with all them when i was twenty years old and you know people change a lot in eight years but i think that's that's typical. Probably have you know most most men in their twenties. They start off very immature and the end out naty only somewhat immature was. Is there anything though where you would say. I wouldn't make that point not because of an intellectual reason. And i'm not i really am not trying to sub tweet just anything your life. We're like you know i. I think that sound enough. But i wouldn't say it that way. Not for an intellectual reason before what i've either loaned or how i've grown emotionally how i've matured in terms of the style of how i say things like. It's taken me some time to appreciate. You know that how you say things and what words you use is actually very important. You know trade offs between clarity and gabbing attention versus respecting other people. I'm not claiming. I always get that right but it's definitely something i've like changed on it move. I tried to move more toward the respectful. But then i think the other piece is just something i talked before. It's just that you know. When i was twenty in working in the obama campaign there. Were all these disagreements between the data people and kind of these grizzled old school consultants and stuff like the value of television advertising or the value of yard signs or you know various tactical messaging decisions. And i think when i look back probably about eighty percent of the things where i thought i was right and they were wrong. They were probably right. In retrospect you know just with the maturity of being able to appreciate you know how complex these problems are and how you know the ways in which. I was boiling down them into numbers doesn't sufficiently complex So yeah i definitely think. That's that's something. I've grappled with over the last ten years realizing the world is a little a little more complicated okay but like with yard signs. You had data. The data didn't show they were working. Why would you be wrong because an old guy says i just feel they work or this is the way i've always done it. It's more subtle point in that. And i think this is one of the big problems in political analytics. I think this is one of the big mistakes that the obama people made was that in the old days. There were all kinds of things that politicians used to do. They give speeches. There'd be soundtracks they'd put up yard signs they'd like send a note to the county fair also they would knock doors or they'd send mail or you know whatever the thing that differentiates knocking doors or sending a piece of mail relative to sending someone to the county fair or putting up yard sign is. It's very easy to test knocking on someone's door. It's very easy to set up that experiment. You know who votes and who doesn't vote as a matter of public record so you knock on one hundred thousand doors. You don't a hundred thousand doors. You see how many of them vote afterward. So as a result over the course of the two thousands a lot of experimental evidence started to accumulate unlike canvassing and mail and so we started learning how to you know building out all of these models to optimize. You know who we should send mail to or who we should As to you know just to tell a quick story. I remember my first day in the obama campaign. I'm talking to dan wagner's head of analytics and you know he goes and he says you know. Campaigns are fundamentally about lists of lists people to persuade people to volunteer enlisted to raise money from lists of people to get the boat and your job is a math person is to just those lists as well as you can. And then i like went and tried to sort the list and you know. The problem is like stepping back. That's crazy it's clearly not winning. Campaigns are about and that's not blaming him You know. I believe that too. But i think that if you come in with this with data mindset. It's really easy to focus on things that are really easy to measure and to really neglect things that are harder to measure. You know i think stepping back you know i mean i just to talk about yard signs because it was so easy to measure door knocks We really started. Incentivizing field organizers based on how many door knocks they put this like kent centralize. Crm called the band and then you know people actually starting to say those. This mantra that organizers would say oh yard signs don't vote yard signs vote because they get really annoyed because they were getting judged and how many door knocks they were there. They were getting their people to do. And these volunteers would come in and just want yard signs and outlay knock on doors and it turns out that finally we got to a point where we could test yard signs very hard thing to test. You know you have you have to put yard signs in some precincts and not in others used like pay people to pull out your signs and whatever and it's still it's still a little bit of an open question but all signs and the side themselves might. The signs themselves might be terrible. So you're not even testing optimal yard signs right. But there's an academic he did. He did this across three different races. And so far all the evidence we have shows that yard signs are actually on a per cost basis a lot more effective than canvassing. And just it was very hard to test. We didn't know that. And therefore we decided it didn't matter meanwhile consultants were like no yard. Signs are very important and Into the point there is just. We shouldn't dismiss the wisdom of these elders. Because they're older and they have wisdom but actually think there's a different more subtle reason it used to be that there was way more ticket splitting just put numbers on this and twenty twelve. The correlation between senate vote in presidential vote was like point seven one and now it's point nine five four and if you go back to the nineteen eighties of the nineteen ninety s was crazy. There were they were racist. Were literally a majority of people. Split their ticket. You know like joe biden. For example who i think has a lot of good orange. Thanks you know in one thousand nine hundred. Four of literal majority i think of people in delaware voted for both joe biden and for reagan. These people who were around back then got who observe this like different world where effects were really big. And you didn't need fancy math to see what would happen. And that's why i you know i think it's important studied era and listening to people. It's not just you know people get you know. Have this wisdom as they age. It's that the world needs to be different than they were around back then and it means they have a little little more data. Took me some time to appreciate that. That's interesting because the question was about. What do you think you learned based on emotional maturity is instead of intellectual maturity and i could listen to your answer and i took it all in but in the end it was the intellectual evidence. The empirical evidence about yards on working. That either are convinced. You're you're right or your mind. Well i think that now we have the data field as advanced in its and so we can answer some questions that we couldn't clearly answer before. But i think the you know the reason why i was wrong before was i would. I had a situation where there really much data and my prior was these things did nothing and these older people had this prior that these things were very important to be clear. I wasn't in charge. Thank god but i. I thought these pointy headed bosses. What did they know. Run even know any you know and the answer which i was too immature to appreciate was that they really did know something i didn't because they were around. Yeah and they didn't even know why they knew it and it has something to do with. Maybe the maturity part of it is humility about the nature of priors for each part of that interaction. that's right. I raised the case their case in language and they wouldn't be able to express that but i think it's just important to realize you know it's it's actually very hard you know to become obama senior adviser. You really have to be a pretty smart guy even even or woman and so even if you don't know even if you can't speak like an academic or even if you don't know math like you probably have a lot of insight and this is just something i've really come to grapple with where you know all of us and now we work with a lot of principals people who are in charge of super pacs speed elected officials and they generally don't have a background in social science generally don't have a background in quantitative research. Might my experience is that they're all generally very smart people and ignoring what they say or reactions is like a bad idea. It's really something you should do it your payroll and so i think humility of realizing that other people can really be quite smart so someone will hear what you said into and interpreted as oh. It's kind of a shot against technocrats or at least it's a bolstering up wise people who aren't technocrats. But i hear you're saying something about the nature of being on the vanguard and anyone who is of the vanguard usually young people coming brimming with ideas they not only think that in these specific ways that we can really prove where right and they're wrong they think in general. The old way of thinking must be wrong full. Stop everything about. It must be wrong or so much about. It must be wrong. There's you know a cliquishness or there is a cultural aspect to being on the vanguard where you denigrate people who've been in those positions for a long time it's just natural. It's just human nature you tell your yourself a story that we're us and their them but again maybe humility should be the order of the day. There's something i'd like to say is that there's this process for people turn twenty one or twenty two and they lead university in. They looked around the world and they go on. The world is really messed up. I want to make things better. And i think the important thing to realize is just that people have been doing this. Smart brilliant people a lot of whom are very ideologically motivated carolina. Very left wing have been doing this for the last like five six hundred years and that means that you know all the problems that are left. I mean. there's still a lot of problems that are left are really intractable and hard to solve either full political economy reasons or technical. Whatever but it's generally smart people have been trying to solve these problems for a very long time and they are unsolved and so. I think that means that you need to have a little bit of humility when you approach them. There was someone who was a lot like you five years ago and he probably wasn't an idiot so you think are you're probably missing something and even have a really good theory of the case for why you're going to be able to succeed where they fail and sometimes there is you know the world is changing technology the internet. There's all kinds of stuff. But i think you need to think really carefully about it and it's just something i try to keep in mind and i guess you could call that humility right one theory of the case a common theory of the cases. Will i believe it. More strongly. And i will fight harder. And that probably wasn't the case balance probably not true you know turns out there were plenty of plenty of people you know really really wanted to change things. I mean this gets to move a little bit more into into politics. You know like i. I personally identify as socialist. But you know it's something. I tried to come to terms with is just that you know. There have been a bunch of very left-wing people who had very strong ideological convictions. Coming out we want to change the world and and throw themselves at the problem and you know this has been happening like one hundred and fifty years now and so i think you have to study. I think all of these people before you who've tried and failed and come into it with this idea that actually a lot of the choices they made probably made sense. Probably were the right thing to do. and you know in particular. I think you know when you look at the postwar history of social democrats in europe. You realize they really run into a lot of the same problems that are relevant in the us where it turns out. People really don't like tax increases. It turns out that there are a lot of voters who are culturally conservative and there are a lot of really hard trade-offs and you have to juggle them and it's important to know that it helps inform how you should look at things now because they did accomplish a lot of things they built a big welfare state they need a lot of people that are off but it turns out that all of these things involves a bunch of hard unpleasant trade-offs even if you come into it like things really strongly chores a researcher and consultant for democratic politicians. That's why he says we us an hour. When speaking of that side you could follow him on. Twitter at david s. h. r. Thanks so much and now the spiel. The georgia senate races or to be decided tonight. The new york times is bringing back the needle. We've all seen the needle and the damage done. Okay it's an obvious music you. But i'm going to indulge it because it's a great song and an apt metaphor if there is a cowgirl and she's in the sand not gonna play or the cowgirl in the sand now. There are another example so much chasing waterfalls. You don't think they should do that. Don't twist yourself into contortions to avoid the obvious. So the needle is the new york times visual representation of a candidate's chances in a particular election and some people hate the needle because they think of yes. The damage done now. What's the damage. Well that the needle is sometimes it accurate like when it said that biden with lose georgia in two thousand twenty or and this is more trauma inducing win. The needle is accurate like when it said trump would win the election in two thousand sixteen. Neil young was wrong. It is not only love can break your heart was donald trump getting elected and i hope mr young more remember etc etc. I think the needle is kind of stupid because it takes general premise right. Meaning that general that one candidate or another is slightly more or slightly lesser greatly more or less expected to win and then assigns an impossible exactitude with it and then the new york times is the annoying part or the needle truth. Irs out there. i call them the need. Lers the neat lers needlessly lead us into an argument new. That's not what the needle suppose to to. You're not understanding the needle. That's not what the needle is saying. You can't read needle. Sure then they then you just really. It's really just to indicate arrange sure. That's what needles are known for how they come to a wide splayed out range. Which is why we use needles to mash potatoes or flip pancakes or need dough. Obviously where the word needle comes from. If we wanted to range the new york times would be sponsoring the rake or the finishing trowel or even the saif both conveys a range and finality. The annoying thing about the needle is exactly the fo precision and i have thought of a good analogy football phobia. You might hate it but work with me here. If you've ever even watched a football game always comes that moment when the ball carrier is stopped by the defense. He's struggling to get a first down and he stopped somewhere near but maybe not at what would be the first down. Marker and the referee eyeballs looks at where the referee is. He does so at a distance and he estimates okay. The ball carriers forward progresses stopped. This is the football rule. The guy isn't always tackled. Sometimes they're held up by defender and he went forward then he's pushed back so you're supposed to find the spot where he went forward. The most his forward progress and the referee makes a subjective judgment. About where the ball stopped moving forward and then he tries to remember the point of subjective judgment and picture. The ball at the moment is stopped. Runs over if it is of course now dealing with a memory of the past and then taking the ball from somewhere in mid air and putting it on the ground so there's a little bit of movement there as well and sometimes you see the putting the ball on the ground and then after he put the ball on the ground where he wants to go he just moves it like an inch this way or that way. It's like when i set the microwave. Three oh one or four thirty one. I'm giving myself a little piece of flare. you know. i have the insight about how these things are done. And i don't i don't at any this not so far because there is nothing we could do about the vagaries of estimation or the permanence of memory. And i don't begrudge anyone in the officiating crew having to do their best to determine where the ball should be seems like a hard job. I guess they do it. But it's clearly just an estimate an estimate shaped by human. Frailty can we admit that we cannot cause at this next moment. What happens is the thing that so vexes me. It's that two guys running from the sidelines. With a set of chains attached to sticks to precisely measure to it supposedly highly calibrated degree this entire exercising guessing and estimating and fussing around with an oblong ball as seen by ones i as recalled by one's brain as placed on a field. And oh by the way the chains there's very nineteen kind of version of exact but there it is and it is the layering of supposed scientific exactitude atop a sloppy pile of rose. That's what i find so insulting. And that's the needle. It's a trump plus two percent ten percent more votes in now biden point four percent. Oh now we're suspending it. That's how georgia went during the presidential election. Oh no no no. Here's the problem. The problem is you. Don't get the needle because maybe we didn't spend enough time explaining how you don't get the needle. Which is why the new york times wrote or at least needle. Meister nate cohn. Who's great. He's really great new job but he wrote this article co wrote this article a couple years ago. The needles back. Maybe this time it will really be wrong. Sub head and yes. I could be wrong or wrong in quotes and in the article. The word wrong appears fifteen times eight times quotes and seven times advocates. Because the new york times doesn't think that we understand the fine nuances of their precise tool that supposed to be really precise because maybe we don't understand how tools work or this particular tools that they're the best estimates of the information that we have at any given time who needs who needs any of this. The new york times is so convinced that we don't understand what it means to be wrong that they don't think they can ever be wrong. It's like they're arguing with their readers over a feature. That doesn't mean anything will be obviated in a day's time doesn't really serve a news purpose. I mean maybe it's predictive. Maybe it's not frustrates. Readers and might actually have a negative value in terms of setting incorrect expectations before the final vote is tallied. I like information like data. Alec dole's is a pretty good tool. I wouldn't mind if some guy out there. On the internet invented a needle in a worked as well as the new york times needle and i would check it out and put too much stock in it. I don't think they need a horror. I don't think they need all the help i do. You think is an attitude about elections that they are sport but that the audience the new york times audience thinks of them. Maybe is a game book. Short of a life or death game. it's very discordant with everything else that the serious and seemingly gust institution of the new york times is trying to convey but blessedly the lack of presence of or prominence of the needle will be subsumed soon enough by the actual result which will be analogous to a needle because it will either be a shot in the arm or a spike right through the eye. And that's it for today. Show margaret kelly producers suggest. She says if someone literally does leave the cake out in the rain. There's no reason to sidestep macarthur park shane. Roth produces the gist. She believes that. If your momma did in fact tell you to knock someone out. Whole montgomery is executive producer of slave podcasts. Who thinks that if you in fact like pina coladas and walks in the rain no reason to escape from that that notion the gist if the naturally occurring interjection upon realizing i wish you were. My lover was cheese. Or what do you know golly or who to sunk. I wish i were your lover then. I don't need to play a song about that. But my pining for you my lover by the exact exclamation. Damn when i say. Lean into the full subject of glory of this sentiment improved effort to peru and thanks for listening

david shore twitter mike pesca john roderick cunanan obama senate russia president trump Sebastian gorka professor gorka hungarian university gorka michael caputo buffalo radio station trump administration ken jennings white house dan wagner
Char reads for you!

CharVision

51:04 min | 3 months ago

Char reads for you!

"Sharma goalless shark communications inc and charlotte in l. l. c. Do not endorse or offer for any purpose. Entertainment the views of any guest or other expert on sharp vision or upn. Before they happened from the time i was a child at the age of eight. I saw spirit at the foot of my bed. Didn't know what it was. And in my twenties i finally realized i had a special ability that could help others. I have learned. love never dies. There is a spirit world that can communicate with us and we all have the gift of intuition. Join me and together. We will explore the possibilities of the unknown from beyond in more. This is sharp vision. Hi my name is sunny and my may charge the dead people. Tell me are you. i'm good. How are you guys beautiful face you have. They're both of you thank you. It's so funny because sunny really knows that. It's time for the show earned. When i started putting mega monir doing my hair. Whatever he he he like all he does is bring his bother me. He wants all the attention he does. He feels the energy of the spirits and everything conjuring up for me to do the show. And he's like i. I'm ready mama. I'm ready to work. Yes he is. So today's june twenty fifth twenty twenty one and i would just like to send my condolences to the people in miami and crowns avenue michigan so we all really would be so nice if we all prayed for these people because prayer really works. You know some people would when they don't expect to die Don't realize that they're that they're deceased. And we need to pray that the white light comes to them and that their loved ones on the other side of their greet and that they're not lost souls the stone maybe we can say a little prayer of. Let's have a moment of silence of the all say a prayer for all those people that they end up with their loved ones in the spirit world and that they are in god's news. Oh gosh anyway I'm gonna. I'm gonna do readings today so you may call in. I don't know if there's any zimmer's what's going on. Hand shying wow Are there are numerous. Tony no not right now anyway. It's okay they don't really expect to zoom. They usually call. 'cause i i only give the number out on social media So i am going to say rare protection. You wait tony before. I say the prayer protection. Did you know anybody in miami. No i'm not not even close to anybody are in that area so no goodness. Bs sending all the prayers and healings and findings of all the people. There that are still trapped out horrifying. No i mean for. A building just collapsed. Pretty strange brew. Weird is made. That's it's not right at all. I mean a lot of an and they were. They were saying that. People were hearing creeks and that the building was sinking. Oh really i heard that on the news. I mean i can relate what i heard on the news but Got it sad and you know they. It was a guy walking his dog. Who saw who heard a little boy yell. I'm over here. I'm over here. And he's he reaches out of the rubble and they saved him on a stretcher but his mom didn't make it and then there is one three grandmas who were there to see an art show or something and they. They were two friends who were staying with the third friend really. Gosh and they haven't been found yet either so modern pretty people and it's sad. Yeah anyway so. I just it just does i know reiterating what i said before just bothers me because i wanna make sure that the people understand that they're in the spirit world and that they should refer the white light and gosh you know god forbid if any of us are taken without notice. Just look for the white light and look for your loved ones in your angels really important anything in near around her about us. It is not a lake. Go back to where you came from and turn to light if you choose. Let's stay away from us. We asked the universal consciousness. Thank god that holds the highest spiritual power of knowledge wisdom and truth to guide and protect is as we communicate with our guides in angels in the spirit world and tap into the wisdom of the universe we respect this opportunity and take full responsibility to use this not free go or controlling others but with the pure intention of spreading love and healing life on this earth. And beyond okay. So we're all protect all you guys. Listening are protected. Put yourself in the white light. In the mirrored egg. I put sunny in his own white near dyke every day. He's licking an you. Okay so Who do we at two zero one. Nancy ansi inquire. They are nancy. I hi how are you. I'm good. I feel so sad about the miami vilson. Yeah are you. Are you the nancy i know. Well i don't. I have so confused before you mean number to help win the nc. This is crazy weird. Because i mean i have a friend named nancy. Who's in miami right now. Who said she was not today. I'm not that nancy. No no now is crazy. Because i said to total maybe calling but good i. I'm happy to read for you. I'll thank you. Of course just be open minded about everybody living and deceased in if i am ready for you before. I don't remember what i say to people. So i might get the same people i might not. I never know who's gonna show up or who wants to you know. Make themselves known so Wonderful so i. I wanted to know if you have somebody with an s. or an ammunition S deceased is a female. No it's spelled as it might be but that's not what comes in. I is there an essay or st or just starts out there as well. There's a couple of but there isn't a. Is that a female. Not coming from me then. Is it a sam. Yeah there ever um yeah okay. Is that your uncle. Your grandpa who is at. He's my grandpa's the way before. I was born okay so I feel him around you so he knows about you. Even though you see as with the am. I was getting sam. And then you're saying and there's another s mail is it s with an l. in the name the other s No there is no ellen it okay but it starts with us. Is there an eye in it or yeah def. Yeah outside. Is it sidney. Yep iowan sydney sydney. Now it's sydney. who's at. That's my dad. Y'all this my god yup Sorry your dad's you're to battle the smoke detector last week did you. Thinki- set it up. I assuring did it really checked my sister. Ross yeah if you if you think it was him it did not attend times. People are right absolutely. Yeah yeah he definitely funny so he is your sister in s No no there is a settling enough. But it's not my sister is your esteem. steve or route left my all. The brother yup is there an issue communicating with steve. Yes between my sister and my brother. Yeah right now like they don't get in the middle of it. I try to say out of that but if it makes me sad. Yeah it is sad. But they're both difficult and You know you know. There's an old saying. No good deed goes unpunished. While if you tried to fixings the blame you. Oh i say yeah. No i'm saying that the middle of those to opt out of it. They're a pain in the ass. Both of them are a pain in the ass about pretty stubborn. Who's david He's my uncle. Is he deceased as he's living. Now he's living roofing health issues with david shore that he's he's like ninety four or something so then you can probably bet there's something wrong with them. Yeah freddie finally he walks with a walker and makes jokes about it so he's pretty though he so he's got a good attitude and good for him there watching over day if you're watching over them and then I need to know about. Is there a louis or lillian. Yeah lewis a couple of. There's to lowest as it's one your grandfather or your uncle. Well one is. My one is my great grandfather and one is my uncle by marriage. Yes so. I think i feel like your great grandfather's here was he from russia or poland on the wane down. Yeah like something like that. He would be my grandpa sam father in law and i think they're like austrian austrian. Okay i think they came from austria but that whole like glitzy on thing okay so now so yeah okay so anyway. I think that that lewis is here as well and Who's rose or ruth or are well it says My father's am yes. I and she's deceased correct. Yeah yeah it feel like she your door a ball harden. she's adorable. She's she's really like he's she's got a great energy and she is lovely. I can feel her and she's fun and She singing that's nice. Like i don't think i ever heard her things that she had a lot of fun. I'll tell you what feeling i'm feeling that Was she a. I'm feeling like after the war leg celebrating after the war people singing. Oh so that them live here. So that the thousand sons went to war. They went so came back. Yeah so that's why she's they're. They're they're showing me that they celebrated when they came back from world war. Two and i somebody starts with an i o. Oh and her husband kiss is he eireann urban ruin like. Oh yeah sorry. Yeah she hurt. She's with him and they're happy there they got it. They got a good over there on the other side. They're happy people. Yeah yeah they watch over. Yeah i'm so happy yeah You're the balanced one between you and your sister in stephen the balanced one. So you know you're woven from a different cloth so You know it is what it is and men whose far bra or be. oh. I know big absolutely. It's my best friend's mother is barbara or like my other mother hid spe- her name is a. b. e. Okay so it's be okay. Yeah yeah she's in. You're still close to your best friend right. Yeah yeah and they would be like my other. Mother loved her right. will she just loves you q. And when she passed away. Did they give you something of hers. Like a scar for a purse. Or i'd have to ask. I talk to ask my friend but i have things of hers anyhow. Yeah she's had a wonderful. Or and i just treasure everything from her. Yes she saying. She gave you things that you have things that she owned now. Manny she loves you like daughter. Yeah there's also an h. H in aaron h Well there's a harry. I was gonna say don't say hey my break okay. Well there's an h. Mail in age and my sister's family in this. Is that a female in your sister's family or app is that h. e. r. h. a. h. a. Harriet or fernandez. Harry ya so. Who is at from your your sister's husband or yeah so willing isolated tab. Yeah i think. I feel like that she that your sister may have something of hers from her. Kitchen very probable. She order showing me things that she was given to her from her kitchen and While i could sit and read for you. I'll tape but you know what's interesting. You is that mine. Medium ship comes out because of the spirits are really really connected in close to you and i feel like you're very spiritual but i feel i feel like you have a question for me now On well i if it's okay. I do actually Someone just told me that that i was Getting on a push from my mom to move back. And i don't know if that's true but if you'll though who told you that a friend of mine a friend of mine his you know ma modestly guested so i didn't get the verify her myself or She likes student. she's a student. She might decide tasks but move by question. Mar moved back to another state But you don't want you to be near my now well. I don't know that i don't want to. I just wish. I click my heels and have it be over with you know. It's such an ordeal. The move but i have a son and i was thinking about thinking about your son. Where's your son. He's up in pennsylvania. Is that where you would move to or I would yeah you know. I think you might. Are you south now or where are you. Yeah i i'm in northern florida or okay i think eventually might move but i think you should wait and then decide okay but i i think he might. I think you're going to go where your son is. Yeah i met them. That's what i think. Because i was going to ask. He's not micalizzi. Now that's harry asks on. Yeah where's he. Where's michael my. He's my sister up. North also wasabi. Brother-in-law yeah yeah here. You're talking about her son. Ursuline not your son. So i don't know yeah. I don't know if michael believes in all this stuff but you should. But i keep telling him and he's going to have a big surprise when he kicked the bucket that that is the truth and you might wanna might wanna send him the link to this show today so he gets it because he he's just he doesn't have the faith he needs he needs. He needs more irritable understanding. But that's okay you know. Every inner doesn't mean he's a bad person he's just a wonderful person or if your sister now them together along and the ad and they they love each other very much i can tell. Don't send the link because maybe this whole thing. And every i felt i was thinking back on. Send me. it'll get you in trouble okay. Nancy thank you so much. Thank you charts saul matz reading for me tonight. Love to you and sunny Thank you we love you too and have a wonderful rest of the evening thank you. You do the same all the best. Want to change the mine on. Better listen to this. Show my goodness how weird okay. So i thought my friend nancy. So who's next miranda. Okay my randa her. Are you with nancy ever dying. It's they're super fans over here. Okay so how crazy. I said tony. Somebody named nancy or miranda are going to call in their my friends and The other girl was nancy. I know we were dying. We were like oh my goodness that was crazy. That makes me really really crazy. Okay you guys ready. I'm going to read for you guys because you know. I don't remember what i say or the people are a hundred. Yes okay so let's see an in you. You both need to be open minded. Because i'm not quite sure. If i'm mchugh guys up or not i mean you know so. Be open about everybody. Living indices in this area the e. l. l. I l in his it. Is that a female. Or a meow. A male l. is mel l. e. or la yet but l. e. r. a. l. a. Like larry or lance. Yes yes can. I can see who it is. Yeah who is it. My dad which you're so my my. It could be my grandfather okay. So it's your grandfather in your in your in your dad's living he okay and your grandpa's deceased yet zinc your graham pushed spirits around in it qasimi and is that he is Is that his father. Your your dad's father okay. Yep and then. Is there a middle name with an a or m or first name for a or m. Yes there could be a is it an- or a and who's an i do have a great aunt an okay. That was actually with sister-in-law. They think okay so i think she's here. I also am feeling Is this a time of zero birthday. Just pass or anniversary. Just pass or coming up soon of your mom of my mom. No my sister just had a birthday and unfortunately it would. It would be the second anniversary of her mom's death your sister's your sister my sister's birthday on and then my grandma died on the same day as my sister's birthday okay. I think your grandma's here talking about the birthday. Sunni sonny sonny sonny. There's a dog outside. Sorry he's protecting Okay so yeah. So it's an it's the anniversary of a death and that's why saw anniversary burn That's raising of your sister yeah. Thirteenth earth grammas death. Yep your but your sister was alive when your grandma died. Yes you're so right. Did you recently have a book of being their photos or a book. Were you looking through a book or photos or a photo album or a book of somebody of your family. I want and an oh. This is the other thing. I was thinking. When did you carry something of your mother's when you got married i did. Yes she showing me that you carried something because you never told me that i know i. I don't even think i've got married. I knew you got married but Your mom is with you and she showing me that you carried something of hers when you walk down. The aisle is that true on. I actually had her asses and my An an appendi- so my in my in your dress. Yeah my god. I had a pin in my love. It so it was. It came to me so clear when i was thinking about you. The other day wanted to validate for you to let you know that she She knows that she knew that you carried something birds. It was was literally her apart. Yeah she's always going to be with you. She's always gonna watch over you so of course so nancy. I'm really g or g personal. I have a j. Is it a male. It is the j or a it one of the same. Is it yet. the john or jack or jayme it is yes yes it is my father's name. His formal name is john but he went by jack and is he just he is. I never read for you. That's so weird insane that you're saying okay. Because i feel him with you. And i don't know if you knowledged him recently for some reason or i don't know if i did while father's day or acknowledged him recently but he's saying he knows that you were he was on your mind he was he was exactly right and Why she showing me someone in a hospital bed. Where were you were you were you were you not with him. When he crossed over not with him. I was not with him. Yeah okay 'cause he's saying it's ok that you weren't with him. I don't know if you feel bad that you weren't there or whatever but he he doesn't want you to feel bad that you weren't with him and he also is apologizing so i'm not sure what i know exactly what that means and you're bringing me to tears so thank you for that that incredibly meaningful right now. Yeah and he's He saying that you're everything that he wishes. He knew how to be off. Thank you yeah. And now i am seeing. Don't did you lose a ticket or or a passport or did you have to get something reissued or did you do. Be careful of of either dropping a ticket or a passport or something or making sure. Everything's organized when you're traveling okay. I haven't yet. I mean i am traveling but i haven't trapped anything that i'm aware of tomorrow's traveling tomorrow. Okay so just. maybe. I don't know double check and make sure that the seats are ride. Or it's confirmed. I mean i'm sure you're you're organized but don't get distracted where you lose something. Did you lose your mask. No i have my math. Where umass okay. I'm not sure what what they're saying. But you're gonna be fine. It's it's safe it's good. You're going to be fine Who is the a or m around your family My biological mother is in a or m m is she m. a or m i a. Ma are yes. Mary or margaret. Or he's margaret now. She's here and she. I don't know i don't know so that's interesting 'cause my mind. Mother abandoned us. When i was little so she so. She gave you opt for adoption. He actually An oregon okay. I feel like she. that's horrible. Jeez i feel like she's trying to make up for all the karma that she screwed up and wild and was she an alcoholic or drug person. Yes yes she was so now. She's she's really screwed up. And yeah he's talking about Trying to elevate her soul so you don't even know if she's still living or not i do not. I think she's on the other side if you ever had visitation. Never you've never had dreams or anything. No i have not wow. I can't believe you saw both my mom and my dad you're in i mean yeah. I'm speechless and i'm shaking. Oh don't share my friends and don't know any of this so this is amazing. Well thank you. I don't know. I really don't know i mean you are so you are so gifted and so clients and you don't much love to so many people and i will speak on behalf of miranda and i we love you so much friends so i left with special tree and i truly love going to call yourself but you know what's so what's so great is you guys are my real friends and like you. Don't expect me to read when we're together you you just expect me to have. That's what really makes you my friends and it means the world to me. You know home we love you will you. Guys are okay just so anybody knows you. Guys are amazing to me. And i was being hacked on my instagram in. Nancy found out in totally helped me get rid of whoever was trying to do readings and saying that they were me and they weren't and miranda's been helping me with our podcast my podcast. So can i tell them the conversation. We had about the podcast. Because i okay. So i i need to get Miranda's like this bigwig with podcasts in in advertising and i have a lot of people that watch our podcast download on youtube and other things but we don't have enough yet to get a sponsor so she's trying to help me get sponsors for the show because i am i because i i actually pay for this on my own but it means the world to me to do this because people who can't afford me when for the private readings they can call in and then i'm able to give back yeah. Robin hood accepted gifts. So the world. I told you this with the world does not you know one deserves you. Shar i if. I even tell one person people about you and how again how much money that you give like. I feel like i'm contributed. Let it gets like that. So you are so. It's so kind of you to say. But you know. I i just think you guys are so special and i'm so blessed areas but the point was trying to get you is when i meet my maker. You know it. They're not going to say well. You needed more downloads on apple or on spotify or on or whatever. You know that that when i meet my maker. They're going to say well you know. Did you go out of your way to help people and you know you know what did you do that made a difference in the world so yeah instill obviously into the most genuine person through the most genuine person thank you thank you you guys are gonna make me cry and bless all at the same time and here's well anyway. Well we love you and thank you. Were in miami and we literally or shopping at the mall and then we ran across this little baby corner in nowhere so that we could call in and was while you guys are very powerful son. Good healings over to those people down the road we are. Yeah i i know you are. You guys are so such special prentice. Thank you so much for calling. This was so much fun name. You are god. Bless you well safe. Travels i stay in the mirror dag. So what find tony. That was bright. That was a good one. Yeah and here's the deal like. I have friends that. I don't read for so i don't know who they're people are or whatever i just you know it. I have to go into that space in my head of reading. It's like you. And i don't talk much but once in a while your mom might come in and say something we're right but i have to be in that that space because people say to me. Well when you're with people do just read for them all the time. And i don't in fact i don't even think about it. You don't ever really talk about readings. But i think i've been blessed with that because i have to go to a certain place energetically to read. If i was in that place all the time i would be burnt out by now. I mean think about it. I've been doing this for almost forty nine years in most people who've done that for that long either end up sick or whatever whatever but see i like turn it off boom boom. I'm done now. It's like until it's time for me to help the next person. That's good that you can turn it off to where you don't have to be bumping right and we all need balance and health and that i can you know swim laps and hike and do thank god that i do and have balance in my life and and amazing friends like man sister amen. Yeah you're you're so sweet. Tony all my name though quick break and then okay okay. All right don't go anywhere. We'll be right back off where you guys. Hey everybody it's sunny and shower. And i just wanted to answer a couple of questions. People have been calling the office and texting and emailing do i do. Private sessions will. Yes i do. And i love reading for my clients. I do phone skype facetime and in person if we're in the same city i also teach intuition so if you have an interest in doing that or if you have if you're interested in getting your family together and you wanna group reading. I do those as well. So just call two four eight nine zero nine two four two seven and i look forward to reading for you. Thanks all right we are back here we are everybody okay. So let's Okay i don't know if anyone said anything on on facebook because i'm not. I'm so bad at the facebook thing. So i can't even find our show on facebook tony. Rt it. I looked it up earlier. He do see it Whatever figured out okay. Do you see Let's see how much time do we have. We proudly seven minutes. Okay let's take a caller okay. I think this is a newbie. Nine one seven. I believe it's michael michael. I tear you very well thank you. I'm great i'm great tonight. Thank you Michael thank you. Have i read for you before. No okay well. Thank you so much for calling in so nine one seven year. Are you in your that word. Ninety nine one hundred seventy s or why are you. i'm in. i'm from new york. But i'm in. I live in vegas. Now las vegas yes you so so just Thank you for calling just be open minded about everybody living indices and if more than one person more than one person share the same name or initial if you can let me know that your messages of omar smoothly and it's not logical Somebody living that have the same first name middle name or last name. Is someone deceased first name. It'll name lasting so just try to be open about everybody and are you. Are you trying to do something new with were yes i am yes okay. Are you looking for something new with work. I'm starting something new in august. Who started changing my whole career. Yeah i'm changing my whole after twenty years and i'm starting something totally new for you. That's a big step. yes and i like. You're gonna like it better. yes. I hope so. I feel that. It's something that i was always meant to do. But i i never yup good right. You're finally going to lay the doing what you're calling is. Yes yes and i like. You're gonna make a difference in other people's lives yes. I'm going to be a high school english teacher now. I see making a difference. And i think you're gonna do great. You wanna know something. Like oh i have. I have a teaching degree in secondary education in speech anywhere and okay so there you go do you see. Do you see me more toward the middle school students or more toward the high school student. I'm sort of you know not choice. Yeah yes i have a choice. I have to pick one or the other. And i have to make that decision soon. I think you'd be great with both But i kind of feel like the high school kids would would need you more. okay okay. I feel like yeah a wisdom about you in compassion of helping others and and and you our intuitive in you have doubt so when you're reading richner or when you when people are writing whatever they right you're you're open minded about things and you can help people become the best they can be. Okay yup i it makes it. It sounds really like a great thing for you to do. Is there a is there an our or be person around you. I don't know where this is coming from. R&b that i can were bob or e r like a brian or brad Not that i could think of Be are gonna be working with somebody. That's a beer and are okay. I maybe it's someone you're going to be working with. I think you're going to be making news brands. And there's a b. are persson whether m is there another michael or another m Not that i is there. A second letter m. vizier in am or em. Or i don't know and you didn't have like a grandmother with within known. It's okay no. Yeah yeah besides you. I'm trying to think through like all the. Yeah while also j. or g yes the mail or yes. J o or j. e. or jim or james or yes yes james james your dad my dad. My and my grandfather okay. That's when i get in. The name is james lamb. Hearing the jada maybe comes through the end. Yeah yeah your dad yes. Yeah he wants you to know he's proud of you. Thank you and did you. Here's your other career. Because you thought your dad wouldn't want you to be a teacher. He he was very supportive. He never told me what to be but he was actually a teacher himself. He's okay so he did want you to meet okay. He's very out of you and he's gonna be in a classroom helping you out wonderful. That's terrific whoever signed feathers centers others. We're brothers it's going to be a sign from gad's look professors. Okay okay from your dad. I wouldn't be surprised if it's even in the fossils Well michael bird feathers brother like that others could be or even a feather from the pillow that you're sleeping on you a wonderful okay. I'll look out for but you were. You were right on the money. That was amazing. I was a little skeptical but that that really helped me out. Thank you very much welcome. I wish you well in your teaching career. The kids are gonna be lucky to have you. God bless you. God bless you too thank you bye bye bye-bye show shar all thank you. Tony you're just prejudiced. I can be tony. I couldn't do the show without you. So i'm grateful to you. I love you lots and give sunny a lick for me. I will in. I love you when. I love everybody out there. Who's watching star vision. And i wanna call. I wanna thank everybody for calling in and if we get more downloads if you guys in your in your budget spare time wanna download sharp vision on youtube or on apple podcasts. Or whatever it'll help us get some sponsors so that's how it works. Do it download subscribe. Yes sure thank you so much. Everybody i love you guys for watching. And i wish you a a safe happy week and we'll see you next friday l. And you'll of course remember intuitions. Take you places. Logic never could by be. Well

nancy miami Sharma goalless shark communic Nancy ansi miranda david shore tony aaron h Harry ya upn sydney saul matz lewis sam mel l qasimi steve sonny sonny sonny zimmer Tony