19 Burst results for "David Blanchflower"

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:57 min | 3 months ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Remember the job burdens where they fell, They fell on low pay workers that had vulnerable jobs to begin with. And now head policy hinges on the same vulnerable jobs coming back into the market. That's not a good place to rest your mandate. The mandate should lead to the future where we start Re Skilling and need tooling folks for the jobs that have been created by the pandemic. Look at that. Now we are now tech enabled. We have a digitally savvy consumer. Their purchases are going online. We're talking about a workplace that is more virtual remote and flexible than it's ever been before. And yet we're still focused on the same skill set and returning that stuff. It To the market. So I do think there's been some structural changes. There are some sectors and areas that aren't going to come back and then same way retail being one office support being another. I I could go on. So really, we need to be sensitive to the fact that We're not going back to normal in the same way and the jobs market is reflecting. Now what thing that Fed chair Powell kept repeating was humility. We keep hearing this. This is an unprecedented time We are in unchartered territories. It is hard to know and understand the balance of risks. Do you think that the Fed's assessment of the risks the fact that they do appear more concerned? But the inflationary impulse and look willing to perhaps slow growth to fight. That is the correct assessment. Pals in a tough spot. It's easier to communicate when things are really bad, and it's easier to communicate when things are really good. But when you have this disconnect between the economic growth and what we're seeing, and dislocations in the jobs market, and you add onto that pockets of an inflation, you have a really tough narrative to sell, and I think those risks are a parent. I do agree that they are transitory, but the risk are still there and what I wish We hear more of is the limit of data and models in this unprecedented time. I think today about judgment and credibility, and the Fed's staying independent and not being swayed by market reaction, which is like, but I think quite sensitive to data going forward, Neighbor Richardson, Thank you so much, Neela. Thank you so much greatly appreciated with a deep we're going to finish out here and bring the heritage of all that we see here back all of our fed coverage and I really go back. To a meeting with Allan Meltzer and David Mel Pass in the heart of the crash of 2000 and seven Michael McKee. Craig tourists was on fire today remain Boston and Lisa Brand was with us. So Michael McKee Craig tourist was on fire today and it harkened back to the age old discussion wrapped around John Taylor of Stanford. You know it. As well as I do about the got the idea the the ship's part of targeting inflation. That got Powell bit unsettled, didn't it? Well, the idea of targeting inflation was controversial. It became mainstream, and now it's a little bit more controversial because of the fact that the Fed is Trying to hit 2% on average, as opposed to having that be a ceiling and people are wondering if you get above it. Can you get back below it, So that's going to be an ongoing issue? I think what the Fed is saying to us now is that With inflation where it is, we will probably know by the end of the year that we are above the 2% average. We're looking for Michael loss about this afternoon. I got to buy a martini because to be perfectly honest, I really thought you wouldn't go last again. Lisa, let's let's wrap up with the thought. What am stunning move in the two year yield. I mean, four standard deviations. Yes, basically the market surprised by the hawkish tilt question, though, from the press conferences. How hawkish are all of the members collectively over? Is this a couple of outliers with Jay Powell and the others on the other side remaining as dovish as they can be. He sounded gloomy and the market got comfort from that remain the NASDAQ. I sold out everything at two o'clock just been hammered. Well, you have a knack for timing, Tom, but they did manage to sort of squeeze back into the green year are still in the red Now on the day, but I think the idea here that we came off those lows. It shows you that there are people out there who still see a lot of positivity here and, more importantly, Tom That plane is on the runway, but it's not going anywhere for any time soon. Well, that's certainly the message that we got. This has been absolutely wonderful, particularly Michael McKee. Thank you for your guidance here on this fed meeting. We particularly think Priya Misra and David Blanchflower of Dartmouth and TD securities for, uh Their perspective wrapped around the president's final press conference in Geneva. He is on Air Force one on its way home. We're going to go to the close, we're going to get through the afternoon. Maybe the technology show will consider Amazon surging. Negative 224 on the Dow and Bloomberg Radio on Bloomberg Television. This sets us up for an eventful week tomorrow at 8 30. If McKee shows up in dark as the door, we may consider jobless claims thanks to our team, the Fed decides And you have been listening to our Fed coverage on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. Of course, the Fed decides the Federal Reserve officials signaling that the pace of the U. S economic recovery from the pandemic is bringing forward their expectations for how quickly they will reduce policy support. 13 of 18 officials seeing at least one rate hike in 2023, FOMC upgrading Those inflation projections for the next three years. We have seen swift market reaction, so we're going to continue our coverage right here on Bloomberg Business Week on Carol Master in our interactive brokers studio. Let's get a check once again on that market day and Some of your top stories here is Charlie Pellet. Thank you very.

Allan Meltzer Jay Powell Neela Charlie Pellet David Blanchflower FOMC Michael McKee Lisa Brand John Taylor 2023 Amazon David Mel Pass Carol Master Geneva Lisa Priya Misra 2% Tom 13 Powell
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:12 min | 11 months ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Lockdowns looming over a day packed with events from corporate earnings to central bank decisions. And a slate of economic data. SNP futures are higher after data show third quarter economic growth a bit above estimates. The weekly jobless claims the kind we checked the markets every 15 minutes throughout the trading day of Bloomberg. SNP futures up seven points, down futures their lower down eight and NASDAQ futures higher up almost 72. That's up about 6/10 of a percent. The DAX in Germany's down about 1/10 of a percent. 10 Year Treasury Down one 32nd. He'll 10.77% They yield on the two year 20.14% Nynex Crude oil is down. 5.9% down $2.20 a 35 19 a barrel Comex gold on a chance for centre $14.70 in 18 64 40 announce the euro 1.178 against the dollar British round 1.2946 In the end, one of 4.29, and that's a Bloomberg business. Flash Tom and Paul Karen, thanks so much greatly appreciate the pandemic. In Europe in America has changed. You could see it in the statistics and, of course, a partition between cases and deaths and a new focus as well on hospitalization. Let us consider this with Jason Farley. The Johns Hopkins University. We must realize that what we're trying to do is use the exact same strategy in every single person and so so obviously are. The immunological response is our ability to produce and body for the majority of people will be similar is not the same. But there will be people who are always out liars. There'll be people with different center types, people with different responses that developed slightly different. Flavours. If you will of vaccine response until certainly the fact that we've got you know, six or seven candidates that are smearing, you know, definitely enrolling patients in pastry study is really critical. Facing what can you tell us about what type of walked down works? It seems that you know Europe, much like the US in certain regards is divided on whether lockdowns work or not. What can you tell us? So I think most importantly, there is clear data. Now. There are if you if you to the north of the United States and Canada, there are multiple Canadian provinces that literally have zero cases. Right now. That's multi faceted. Right. There are low. Some are inland population density, but not all. Obviously, no, I had some larger cities. But what they have done is just really, really practice. Not I would say the word extreme but tight control of the virus. Social distancing businesses closed areas in which people combined together are not operational. And now multiple provinces in Canada, for example, have joined a single, You know area that is a Kobe free zone and allowing people to travel within the across the four provinces, but not from outside of those. So I think we really do need to take the local epidemiology. It is painful. Unfortunately, until we get a vaccine and an effective therapeutic and obviously loss of income in business must be taken into effect. But we have to stop the surgeon cases because they will stretch our hospital capacity and we will see more lives. Jason. I thought we were getting much better at treating it so either through antibodies or drugs, or just, you know, knowing when to ventilate people or not, But then when you listen to leaders in Europe, Emmanuel Macron Frantz, Angela Merkel of Germany, they say again, it's overwhelming. And it's become too dangerous for our National health Service's How do you square the two? Yeah, it's an excellent point. And the issue is that the therapeutics and that we have right now, whether they're sterile E there and disappear or in some cases and body, although we recently gotten negative results on the lily antibody on that drug shown to be ineffective and hospitalized. We're learning more and more and each of the therapeutic help some, but they're no holy grail. And so when you see capacity, Serge and I see you bet taken and ventilator capacity reached you then have to use other types of wards and units that are less well equipped for supporting critically ill patient. That increases the risk of mortality just by the system itself your respective of any therapeutic benefit, So you have to look both at the therapeutic benefit in the small margins that we get there. But you have to look at the capacity of the health work force and the system and as we get into lower levels of care with sicker patients. That mortality may rise, so they're what they're trying to do with balance the data around small benefit in mortality and morbidity from the therapies with the rising case numbers and trying to mitigate So that we, the health care system can keep up. Jason Farley of the Johns Hopkins University there on the challenges forward as well. Every window we get in the sour want to go to Paul Sweeney with his true expertise on technology as well. Paul. They're going to show a revenue picture. That's extraordinary. How did guys like you veil you double digit revenue growth in a single digit world. It's amazing these companies Tom, some of these big tech companies, like an amazon dot com that we're going to hear from today like a Google were here from a Facebook an apple. You know, these names are putting up serious double digit organic top line growth. Rates and that's something that as you mentioned Tom in this low single digit world, Erinn is rare indeed. And these growth rates they're riel and they've been sustainable and I think most analysts expect them to continue to be sustainable in the near term that just has outsized value in the market today, and The market pays a premium to get those photos that growth right here. So you know, a lot evaluation calls here. You know, people are kind of really holding their breath here as a buy the stocks as they only stocks here, but in a world where we live in with little to no growth, they're just extended provide exceptional value in in terms of scarcity value. Just it's hard to find growth in this market. On another matter. We spoke of the suspension of Jeremy Corbyn from the Labour Party. In the United Kingdom. That would be the more liberal party and, of course, is crushing defeat at the hands of the prime minister a number of months ago. This is an important twins from someone who has given such value to Bloomberg surveillance. David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College. Who, of course, has served with the Bank of England and, of course from his Cardiff and his whales, quote. I resigned as an advisor to the Labor Party. But thankfully I never spoke with him or communicated with him. Seems he could have done better with some advice that from Danny Blanchflower of Dartmouth College I hear on the suspension of the former leader of Labour and that day Sir cure this morning this after her independent reviews of anti Semitism that was certainly part of the campaign topic. Is well red and green on the screen. I don't know what to make of it, Paul. I'm just exhausted by getting through the morning. The curve is, I guess the nothing but Paul explained gold down $13. It's down $1000 in the last three days. I'm Kyung at 60 60 ounce. Yeah, you kind of have all kind of grown up with gold as a safe haven here, but you know what we've solving yesterday's trading and what we heard from some of the Traders that we spoke to was just a just a complete risk ofthe trade. Get me out of the market. Let me pull some chips back in general. I really don't like those pandemic numbers. I have a lot of concern about the election. And the earnings aren't really helping at all. So I just saw general pullback in risk overall..

Jason Farley Bloomberg The market Europe Paul Johns Hopkins University Tom Germany United States Canada Dartmouth College Comex Kyung Jeremy Corbyn Paul Sweeney David Blanchflower Danny Blanchflower
"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

NewsRadio KFBK

08:13 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

"Looking forward to a nice warm weekend. It is summertime supposed be hot. That's the expectation Stan Belly ache. Talk about happiness, shall we? We talked about all kinds of things around here. And sometimes you, Khun get fired up about certain topics. I certainly dio. I get passionate feelings about certain things, especially some of the issues that have been Simmering in recent months, frankly, across the country, But I think it found this to be very, very interesting. A piece in Forbes magazine actually published yesterday. That reflects a pretty comprehensive study that was done in an effort to make a scientific determination as to who controls your happiness. This is submitted by Dr Brian Robinson on DH. Frankly, and maybe the reason I like it full disclosure because it kind of supports a theory that I have forever believed to be true. Andi think that's part of what many of us do you look for things that kind of affirm your point of view on issues. But this is this is, I think very comprehensive and very objectively. Gathered and analyze data. And it has to do with something that we all should be aspiring to achieve. And that is basic, fundamental happiness, acknowledging that is somewhat difficult to define. On drily truly measure happiness, but it's It's like the Supreme Court. Justice famously said about pornography. I don't know how to describe it. But I know I know when I see it. Well, I think happiness is the same way it is. Thesixty Ent to which you feel satisfied. And pleased with your overall lot in life. And but it is to try to actually establish what happiness is is not is simple and and direct and black and white as as some other things, obviously that we can identify Eyes it possible to get a scientific handle on such a slippery concept as to who controls your your happiness. It appears as though in happiness surveys over 80% of people rate their overall life satisfaction as pretty very happy. That's that's I think pretty good news on DH probably not terribly surprising. Incomparably 80% also rate their current mood as positive as an example of a positive 6 to 7 on a 10 point scale. Where five is neutral. Ah, lucky few may even consistently find themselves around a point of eight on the 10 scale, although there is an acknowledgement of the fact that excessively higher scores may actually impede attainment of life success. As measured by wealth, education or political participation that that that that's understandable If you're if you're satisfied you're not going to seek to attain. Greater goals and No, I didn't say higher goals because your goals may not be consistent with the goals historically established as the norm in terms of what people want one of those things, obviously that that people I think, identify On the happiness continuum is wealth. Well, I don't necessarily believe that's Ah ah, valid measurement of a person's overall happiness. While there are some critical aspects, Tio having a satisfactory degree of wealth to be able to cover one's expensive expenses and provide for themselves, and I think a Ah Basic overall level of satisfaction. When a person gets to the point that they can support their family and and actually engage in generosity for others, that is, I really truly believe one of the most gratifying experiences a person can have. And I know that sounds. Aah! Like somebody may believe in rainbows and unicorns, but I think it's a legitimate when you can do something. When you have the wherewithal to do something significant for somebody else, it could be an extraordinarily satisfying experience. So this new study found that in a world where happiness is in short supply, your happiness may be much much, much more within your control than you may be inclined to think. The survey from tracking happiness sought to answer the question. Can we control our own happiness? With 1154 respondents providing answers to such questions? As It's happiness, something that you can control. And if you look back at the last year of your life, how would you rate your happiness on a scale from 1 to 10? The study consisted of 665 males, 482 females, one gender fluid and six non identified between ages 15 and 60 years. Key findings include 89% of respondents believe happiness is something you can control. And I am absolutely in that camp. I absolutely truly completely and totally believe you can Control your degree of happiness and overall satisfaction. You have it within you, and I think a part of my this doesn't come out of this survey. But my observations are the extent to which you commit to effort today. That will positively impact your life tomorrow and in the years to come the decades to come, will absolutely put you in a position where you can reap an incredible amount of happiness and satisfaction. If you make wise decisions today, so it's not necessarily Out of the category of immediate gratification, but wise things that are done today not referring Tio September 4 2020. But today as in the present I can absolutely contribute to where you find yourself in a position down the road weeks, months, years, decades down the road in a much in a position where you enjoy a much greater degree of satisfaction. Of those who answered Yes, 32% are happier on average. The average happiness rating of those who think happiness is controllable is 7 to 13. I'm sorry 7.39% of the average happiness rating of people who think happiness is out of their control. Is 5.61. Respondents with low happiness ratings are five times more likely to feel like happiness is out of their control compared to people with high happiness ratings. That I don't think that should come as a surprise to anybody either feeling in control of happiness correlated toe, actually feeling happier. About what makes people feel in control of their happiness. The question very, very simply eyes there something we can learn from our ability to control our happiness. Well, I think there is and again is the efforts you expend today, I think absolutely are a part of what will dictate. Or or contribute to the happiness you enjoy down the road. There's also this thing known as the happiness you curve. The study found that control over our happiness changes as we age. And no differences and gender were noted in this particular component of study, namely the amount of control we have over our happiness decreases in our mid life and increases as we grow older again. Oh, and this does, I think reflect a period of time in our lives where you have more opportunity to focus inward. The defining corresponds with a well researched you curve and happiness that is ah piece written by David Blanchflower at Dartmouth College in general. This curve in the case that happiness generally decreases from age 18. Which is a period time in which you find yourself with. I think fewer Option's right. You're you're probably more inclined to be committed, Tio. Teo sometimes demanding educational goals. Or maybe you find yourself directly in the work force, and you're working frankly at the behest of somebody else. Ah, And then that piques the peak unhappiness at approximately 8 47 from there. That's again where if you've kind of made good decisions and live your life wisely, you find yourself with greater degrees of latitude as to what you may be able to Dio. And from there, the happiness levels gradually increase again. Respondents and the current study indicated that they feel less in control of their happiness when there are between the ages of 30 and 60 years. Control over happiness increases at an older age once again since control over happiness is linked to higher happiness levels..

Forbes magazine Khun Stan Belly Dr Brian Robinson Andi Supreme Court Teo David Blanchflower Dartmouth College
"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

NewsRadio KFBK

08:15 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

"I hope you have a great day looking for to a nice warm weekend. It is summertime supposed be hot. That's the expectation it's not belly ache. Talk about happiness, shall we? We talked about all kinds of things around here. And sometimes you, Khun get fired up about certain topics. I certainly dio. I get passionate feelings about certain things, especially some of the issues that have been Simmering in recent months, frankly, across the country, But I think it found this to be very, very interesting. A piece in Forbes magazine actually published yesterday. That reflects a pretty comprehensive study that was done in an effort to make a scientific determination as to who controls your happiness. This is submitted by Dr Brian Robinson on DH it frankly and maybe the reason I like it full disclosure because it kind of supports a theory that I have forever believed to be true. Andi think that's part of what many of us do you look for things that kind of affirm your point of view on issues. But this is this is, I think very comprehensive and very objectively. Gathered and analyze data. And it has to do with something that we all should be aspiring to achieve. And that is basic, fundamental happiness, acknowledging that is somewhat difficult to define. On drily truly measure happiness, but it's It's like the Supreme Court. Justice famously said about pornography. I don't know how to describe it. But I know I know when I see it. Well, I think happiness is the same way it is. Thesixty Ent to which you feel satisfied. And pleased with your overall lot in life. And but it is to try to actually establish what happiness is is not is simple and and direct and black and white as as some other things, obviously that that we can identify Eyes it possible to get a scientific handle on such a slippery concept as to who controls your your happiness. It appears as though in happiness surveys over 80% of people rate their overall life satisfaction as pretty very happy. That's that's I think pretty good news on DH probably not terribly surprising. Incomparably 80% also rate their current mood as positive as an example of a positive 6 to 7 on a 10 point scale. Where five is neutral. Ah, lucky few may even consistently find themselves around a point of eight on the 10 scale, although there is an acknowledgement of the fact that excessively higher scores may actually impede attainment of life success. As measured by wealth, education or political participation that that that that's understandable If you're if you're satisfied you're not going to seek to attain greater goals and No, I didn't say higher goals because your goals may not be consistent with the goals historically established as the norm in terms of what people want one of those things, obviously that that people I think, identify On the happiness continuum is wealth. Well, I don't necessarily believe that's Ah ah, valid measurement of a person's overall happiness. While there are some critical aspects, Tio having a satisfactory degree of wealth to be able to cover one's expensive and expenses and provide for themselves, and I think a Ah Basic overall level of satisfaction. When a person gets to the point that they can support their family and and actually engage in generosity for others, that is, I really truly believe one of the most gratifying experiences a person can have. And I know that sounds. Aah! Like somebody may believe in rainbows and unicorns, but I think it's a legitimate when you can do something. When you have the wherewithal to do something significant for somebody else, it could be an extraordinarily satisfying experience. So this new study found that in a world where happiness is in short supply, your happiness may be much much, much more within your control than you may be inclined to think. The survey from tracking happiness sought to answer the question. Can we control our own happiness? With 1154 respondents providing answers to such questions? As It's happiness, something that you can control. And if you look back at the last year of your life, how would you rate your happiness on a scale from 1 to 10? The study consisted of 665 males, 482 females, one gender fluid and six non identified between ages 15 and 60 years. Key findings in quote 89% of respondents believe happiness is something you can control. And I am absolutely in that camp. I absolutely truly completely and totally believe you can Control your degree of happiness and overall satisfaction. You have it within you, and I think a part of my this doesn't come out of this survey. But my observations are the extent to which you Commit to effort today that will positively impact your life tomorrow and in the years to come the decades to come, will absolutely put you in a position where you can reap an incredible amount of happiness and satisfaction. If you make wise decisions today, so it's not necessarily Out of the category of immediate gratification, but wise things that are done today not referring Tio September 4 2020. But today as in the present I can absolutely contribute to where you find yourself in a position down the road weeks, months, years, decades down the road in a much in a position where you enjoy a much greater degree of satisfaction. Of those who answered Yes, 32% are happier on average. The average happiness rating of those who think happiness is controllable is 7 to 13. I'm sorry 7.39% of the average happiness rating of people who think happiness is out of their control. Is 5.61. Respondents with low happiness ratings are five times more likely to feel like happiness is out of their control compared to people with high happiness ratings. That I don't think that should come as a surprise to anybody either feeling in control of happiness correlated toe, actually feeling happier. About what makes people feel in control of their happiness. The question Great, very simply eyes there something we can learn from our ability to control our happiness. Well, I think there is and again is the efforts you expend today, I think absolutely are part of what will dictate. Or or contribute to the happiness you enjoy down the road. There's also this thing known as the happiness you curb. The study found that control over our happiness changes as we age. And no differences and gender were noted in this particular component of study, namely the amount of control we have over our happiness decreases in our mid life and increases as we grow older again. Ah, And this does, I think, reflect a period of time in our lives where you have more opportunity to focus inward. The defining corresponds with a well researched you curve and happiness that is ah piece written by David Blanchflower at Dartmouth College in general. This curve indicates that happiness generally decreases from age 18. Which is a period time in which you find yourself with. I think fewer Option's right. You're you're probably more inclined to be committed Tio Tio, sometimes demanding educational goals. Or maybe you find yourself directly in the work force, and you're working frankly at the behest of somebody else. Ah, And then that piques the peak unhappiness at approximately 8 47 from there. That's again where if you've kind of made good decisions and live your life wisely, you find yourself with greater degrees of latitude as to what you may be able to Dio. And from there, the happiness levels gradually increase again. Respondents and the current study indicated that they feel less in control of their happiness when there are between the ages of 30 and 60 years. Control over happiness increases at an older age once again since control over happiness is linked to higher happiness levels..

Tio Tio Forbes magazine Khun Dr Brian Robinson Andi Supreme Court David Blanchflower Dartmouth College
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Armstrong & Getty

Armstrong & Getty

04:26 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Armstrong & Getty

"Social well-being is important here to when the tone feature is enabled. Halo analyze the tone of your voice throughout the day to help you better understand how you may sound others like maybe you thought you sounded affectionate but actually sounded four. Maybe in the future, you can do a better job complimenting her talents. The Halo you can make sure what people here with their ears matches what comes from your heart? So an APP is going to tell me if I come off his too harsh. Would you I'M GONNA. Try. that. Might try that. Yeah. I got to admit I thought you. I heard it always sounds sarcastic even when you're trying not to be yeah. So. The. Well that was a great speech. Yeah, I was great. Who've? Tone. So the NBA has put out a statement apparently, they've come to an agreement with the players. Playoff Games will resume tomorrow with the understanding the League together with the players will work to enact the following commitments and I'll just briefly hit a couple things because there's a lot here but the NBA players have agreed to immediately establish a social justice coalition with representatives from players coaches and governors will be focused on a broad range of issues, increasing access to voting, promoting civic engagement, and advocating to mean for for meaningful policing criminal justice reform. it'll be interesting to see what this looks like I. Mean. They're going to run a lot of PSA's during games about voting and civic engagement National Blah? Blah. Blah this the tone of it is going to be very important for whether or not you turn off the viewers that might not be as an in agreement with some of these ideas you think they are right. So we'll see how that works out. They're really big on the like turning the the the the basketball arenas into voting places and that sort of stuff. Oh, boy and promoting more voting so Okay. Well, go ahead you know all of life is an experiment see how this for your league. Life gets better after H forty-seven says new happiness research. New Research. By Dartmouth, economist David blanchflower examined data from half a million people in one hundred, thirty, two countries. That's a pretty good sample east pinpointed the exact age when the majority of people in developed parts of the world field most miserable age forty, seven, point two. That's when you're. That's when you're the most miserable. Yes. But that's when you turn the corner. Like the shortest day of the year which I call national optimism day because it's about to get better. Every lifetime has a shaped happiness curve. He concludes the average both of that curve when we're at our most forlorn is the same regardless of whether we're rich or poor healthier L. married or single across the board forty, seven point two is consistently the worst. Okay. Now, that's interesting because we've talked about this before in the u shape thing has been around for I'm I. I I have to believe that's true because we've seen it a bunch of times with different studies. But I've oftentimes thought it often thought it had to do with you know your peak raising kids while you're working doing all this stuff. You know that's hard. It's a grind but this is even if you're not married, don't have kids. Yeah. I'm a little mystified by that but. This writer who's WHO's talking about the study says French told me stories of failed marriages and fizzled careers, cancer battles and dead friends in general seeking fee sinking feeling that life is some cruel joke. Around yet eight and that's not true. Or doing me that's not the case. Yeah and neuroscientist and author of the book, the Happy Brain, the science of happiness comes from and why. Has One theory. A few months into forty seven might be when people realize that fifty. A scary milestone birthday is almost upon them. You know when you're forty seven you you're not claiming you're in your mid forties anymore or are you Well it's kind of a border age. It's often that a potential scenarios more stressful than a literal literal one sorta like ripping the band aid off has never as bad as you fear, it's going to be. Easy for you to say, you're not Harry like me. I don't know I think from fifty on. You gotTA. Admit you're old. You're air oldish you're not young if the choices are older young, you're not young. Unless you're running for president then they call you young unless you're a Democrat then you're practically baby..

NBA Harry David blanchflower basketball TA president writer French
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

09:01 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Payrolls report 10 seconds away here in New York City, the most unpredictable print in months and months and months. The range of estimates wide wide wide. Here's the print is Mike McKay. Don. We're looking for the numbers to come in right now, and we are above forecasts. 1,800,000 jobs is the total nonfarm payrolls with a 17,000 additional jobs added in terms of net revision, the change in private payrolls also better than expected 1,462,000. We have 26,000 manufacturing jobs and the unemployment rate falls to 10.2%. Average hourly earnings up to 10. So for the year, the annual average 4.8% and average weekly hours unchanged. There was an expectation they would drop down a tic, but they come in at a 34.5 A couple things I want to check here. In terms of the numbers in terms of the unemployment rates. We know that 10.2% is the overall number. 12.9% is the unemployment rate for Hispanics for Asians, 12% and for black or African American 14.6%. All those are lower. Almost by a percentage point. Hispanic falls by 1.8%. So a drop there. Ah, couple other numbers to take a look at here. A cz we Parse through the tables. Let me go down a little bit farther here, um, the number of people. The new six number, which we all like to look at is at 16.5 goes down. From 18. So more discouraged people getting into the labor force and the number I wanted to look at. That has been significantly changing the job losers. The people who had temporary layoffs drops to 9,225,000 from 10 5 65 but permanent job losers Looks like it fell a little bit. 2,883,000 in June 2,000,608 177 in July. So the number of people who came back to work and find their job's gone did not change. So if you're looking for any kind of good news in a report like this, I suppose That's the kind of thing you would look at. The labor market didn't really get any worse. The number of people who got jobs obviously significantly lower than the last couple of months. But in general, it doesn't look like things worsened the whole lot. They're just kind of static. The one last thing I wanted to look at here is the local government. We did see 241,000 people added on local government payrolls. And 33,000 on state government payroll. So it looks like the seasonals did kick in there. So probably the changing private payrolls is a better measure of exactly where we are. And again. That's 1,462,000. John might let's take the price. Actually the moment shall we off the back of this big upside? Surprise on the payroll report the threat of a negative print hanging over this jobs market. All through the month over the last month coming into this, this is the price action. Right now we're raising the losses of this morning on the S and P 500 now, basically unchanged in the bond market years were unchanged to now. We're not even up by a basis point on a 10 year on in foreign exchange that dollar index just off session highs. We come back a little bit on the dollar index with firmer by 4/10 of 1%. A similar move on euro dollar euro dollar. 1 18 22 I've got to send a grand scheme of things the range of estimates very, very wife coming into this print, but Tom Kane in the grand scheme of things Not far off the estimate, the Maidan estimate around about 1.5 mill, We come in at 1.76 That's the good news is the conversation now from 8 33 this morning through the rest of the day? What does it mean for policy in Washington? Tell me it's going to be interesting. Your conversation Lawrence Kudlow. He's clearly going to take a victory lap away from McGlone crew. I would know Median duration as a couple statistics in there that are pretty gloomy. But clearly it pushes a trend away from the Democrat Party glow and much more towards Republicans, saying there are indications here of a healing economy Michael like and I just want to say folks worldwide nobody does this. Like Michael McKee, the statistical summary came out late this time around. And I thought, Michael that you did a great job vamping that off of what we all lean on in terms of going beneath the headline data, Michel, what is a dynamic You see on government employment, have you? No chance to look at that It was as I thought and a lot of economists. Wall Street thought that we lost about a 1,000,000 people in the education component. And those were added back in and so you end up with a higher number of overall payrolls. Then you would have so again. That's why I say look to the change in private payrolls, which is about three million less than the overall payrolls. One thing I want to point out in terms of the unemployment rate falling Tio Tio 10.2%. The labor force shrink this month by 62,000. It did not grow as it did in the prior two months by 1.7 million and so we see employment rise and unemployment rise, Mohr A TTE this point, so the decline in the labor force helped the denominator there and we end up with a lower unemployment rate. Even though we didn't add that many jobs. I just want to say if Ellen Zentner is listening, we give you yet another victory lap for nailing at 10.2% unemployment rate. She had predicted it just about an hour ago. Mike There is a question about how accurate this data isn't reflecting that here and now the idea that this came in and was tabulated before the true slowdown began of some of the resurgence in the virus cases across the country. Can you give us a sense of what the weakness may have been following the end of one? This report really tracked. It could be currently in the economy. Yet we've seen a number of high frequency data that suggests that we did see job losses as the month went on, but because the report measures from the middle of June to the middle of July It's logical to assume that there were more people on payrolls and that's what we saw. But we certainly didn't get the kind of numbers that we saw in May and June half of what we saw in June, a little less than half of what we saw in June, So there's clearly been a slowing in the repair numbers. Now, let me also. Ah, quickly. Look at this here. The that mistake that the Labor Department has had in calculating the unemployment rate is apparently still there. It's a smaller problem, this classification of workers. But again, they say the unemployment rate would have been about 1% point higher, if not for that, so it would have been 11.2%. The good news is lot more companies replying 78% last month, it was 63%. So we're getting more more accurate data, but there's still a terror built it. Mike McKee, 15 seconds to the president. Get his quote, Big report. No, obviously they couldn't take a victory lap and say yes, we're creating jobs. But clearly the rate of job growth has slowed down and 10.2% even if you accept that, as the accurate figure is still higher way got all during the great financial crisis. Michael Mickey. Thank you so much. Our economic policy correspondent always wonderful on these dynamics right now, Linking much of this report back into the financial markets. Jeffery Rosenberg joins us. Portfolio manager of the systematic, multi strategy fun. Jeff was get systematic right now and that I see higher yields. Is it a modest adjustment? Or can you say that we will pull back from those lower nominal yields of the last number of days? I think it's a really modest adjustment, Tom and I think earlier, you really nailed it when you linked the report, not to the implications for monetary policy, but to the implications for fiscal policy, So when you're looking at the bond market and the yield reaction You really got to go out a lot of decimal points to see a reaction to this report because this isn't really about influencing monetary policy because monetary policy has been very clear that it is going to be highly accommodative that they're going back to trying to get the economy to run hot. So you needed to have a very, very big number here. And even if you had a big number, I'm not sure that would have changed the monetary policy outlook. This is much more about influencing Market direction is taking its direction from fiscal policy and to what you talked about earlier. You know, I think this is a little bit more of a positive report that makes it a little bit harder to argue for the really big Project the really big part programme. We'll see where that plays out. It is much more about fiscal policy. We welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg television. It is Bloomberg surveillance. It's about conversation. Jeffery Rosenberg with us with Black Rock dating David Blanchflower of Dartmouth College will join.

Jeffery Rosenberg Tom Kane Mike McKay New York City Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg Michael McKee Bloomberg Mike There Don Lawrence Kudlow Mike McKee Michael David Blanchflower Labor Department John Dartmouth College Democrat Party
"david blanchflower" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

The Indicator from Planet Money

09:26 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on The Indicator from Planet Money

"Happiness. It can feel like a difficult thing to quantify and also kind of elusive moments. Like what will make a person happy. Is it a great job job. Is it a family is it money is it. I don't know Yoga. Yeah I've been some Yoga. Classes is definitely not yoga but still doesn't help answer our questions. So where do we turn for an answer to how to quantify and measure. Happiness economists Horror of course. That's where you go to learn about happiness right so this economist David blanchflower. He is a new study out built on some old work of his where he finds a strong correlation between age and happiness and he released a study recently. That finds that people report. We're being the most unhappy. They reached their peak misery in their mid to late forties. Yeah apparently there's something called the happiness curve so you before you reach this certain age and you're mids it's late forties. You're getting progressively more unhappy. You hit the age and then you get happier after that. This is the indicator from planet. Money I'm Stacey Vanik Smith I'm Greg Rusedski and Greg. You are the author of the Planet Money Newsletter. Right please subscribe. Please subscribe to some desperate. No absolutely not and I read it and I was like this is very bleak and disturbing and would also make an amazing indicator because there's this very particular age that supposedly was lead peak misery. It's like the nater of Nihilism. The bottom of the barrel. The worst of the worst the moment at which darkness closes in and after which apparently releases this is. Greg give it to us. Forty seven point two forty seven point two years old. You heard it here. First peak misery peak misery talk about the dismal science and today in the show we talked to the economist David blanchflower about the happiness curve. Forty seven point two and what it's like to be on the other side of it support for this. NPR podcast and the following message come from IINO. The capital one assistant the catches things that might look wrong with your credit card. Send you an alert and helps you fix them another way. They're watching out for your money when you're not what's in your wallet. Seek seek capital one dot com for details support also comes from Google from Connecticut to California from Mississippi to Minnesota millions of American and businesses are using Google tools to grow online learn more at Google dot com slash. Grow okay. Why don't we start with your name? And what you you David. blanchflower professor of economics at Dartmouth College and there was a period there. Were you served on the Bank of England. Yes in two thousand six. Six Golden Brown called me up and said Don. I wanted you to go to the Bank of England I said Oh okay And I want you to come to the really seriously. Ah So so. Monetary policy clearly is one of your specialties. How did you get into the sort of world of happiness and and in midlife crises? So what does the Central Bank you care about Central Bank as Aboud interest rates inflation unemployment growth. But they're into people don't care about that they care about how it impacts their wellbeing so I started to think about ultimately What impacts impacts their wellbeing so I actually have a paper? Brian Look at Tommy. Inflation and unemployment impact people's happiness so in a sense those things are intermediate goods. What we really do care about a people's happiness so I go to it and then I started to realize the patterns in the data while guests here high unemployment high I am happiness is absolutely right and so what I found was one of the big results from this is a one percentage point increase in unemployment has a big effect on people's happiness? So that's some of the stuff that I've been doing like really basic question is I mean obviously I know how we measure unemployment but how how did you go about measuring wellbeing. Like how do you measure happiness. Feels like that would have been a challenge at the start of this research absolutely So it turns out that there are many many many many many surveys around the world that actually ask people directly. How happy are you so sometimes they say in literally how happy I you on a scale of one to ten? How satisfied with your life? I you so these schools. Well the first thing. Is that the patterns in these data. When you ask this you pretty much get the same results? Every time most people are pretty happy very few people very unhappy and the same fluid ounces occur on it but I think what what you you would say. Why does this matter when it turns out? This is currently with things so happy people heal faster they live longer healthier so you you are are in the world of central banking. You get interested in happiness and well-being And then in two thousand seven you you release this. The sort of paper a had a huge impact on a lot of people. So can you kind of sort of set the scene. Two thousand seven. What was that paper? I started to work with number colleagues leagues on trying to think about these patterns. In happiness data and three things stood out the first one we just talked about that unemployment impacts it impacts happiness being married impacts it but one of the things we saw very easily so in the data was that happiness is high. When you're a young is high when you're old but this trough in the middle so this this you shake so this is what drove it? I'm particularly interested in deepening case. Talk about deaths of despair and particularly we seem a crisis in America suicides especially in drug poisoning deaths amongst the prime age in particular not prime age less educated folk. And there's that issue around the world so that's so that was really kind of the starting point I've done this study of one hundred thirty the two countries and what I find when average all together in advanced countries The the the the deer. If you like the low point of this happiness it is forty seven and when you do it for developing countries that got nine hundred five developing countries that do before very similar about forty eight point six so around forty eight That seems to be right. And what's interesting over the last couple of weeks. I've been talking a lot about lots of people. Call me and tweet it to me and and so on and said wow that really fits my life. So you've you've talked about this a little bit but I'd love to get like really specific. So what is it that that is causing. I do think I mean like what is it about I guess it was at forty seven point to you What is it what is going on that? That's making people unhappy at that age. Well I think if you look back. I'm a professor so I've lots of young people I teach these young folks And then they left home when they come through the university and they suddenly realize there's more than one way to cook an egg but all of that is pretty dumb tough especially these days where student loans and having to try and buy a house. What are you going to do with all of that stuff? This is really hard but I mean in the sense. What's interesting about it is this phenomena phenomenon appears to be true everywhere? It's not unique to Germany Japan the US and Canada African countries. You see it in Latin America seating Thailand highland so I think it's something that's the people the people are experiencing and then eventually I think eventually I think what happens is people get real. I mean some of the work have written said when you get to meet fifty you your aspiration start to become real when I was talking to you. You're in the Florida mangroves and yes and you write fishing right and that day you caught a fish right the was it again. It was a it was a twenty eight inch twenty pound redfish toward and and you so you sent me this picture. It's a picture of just for listeners. Out There WanNA picture You're just beaming. You still have your security. I have to say this professor blanchflower so We publish this article Ray and it goes on the web and twitter being witter. I had somebody are- tweet at me. And they said this. How are we supposed to trust any of this switch? Flower guys work when he blatantly lies about fishing that Royd ride nowhere near twenty pounds eight to ten pounds so any respond here. I mean I mean the question. It doesn't really rely the size of the faith. which is what I said relies on the fact that I looked awfully happy? You happy. You're on the you're on the upward swing of your happiness curve. We're on yes I've come to see my action sir. My son having a wedding party. Today's Louisiana but your children bring you joy. The grandkids life life improves. This episode of the indicator was produced by Nadia Lewis fact checked by Britney Cronin edited did by Paddy Hirsch and the indicator is a production of.

David blanchflower Greg Rusedski Bank of England Google professor NPR Dartmouth College Brian Look Royd Stacey Vanik Smith professor of economics Golden Brown Louisiana IINO David. America Paddy Hirsch Don Nadia Lewis
Peak Misery And The Happiness Curve

The Indicator from Planet Money

06:36 min | 1 year ago

Peak Misery And The Happiness Curve

"Okay. Why don't we start with your name? And what you you David. blanchflower professor of economics at Dartmouth College and there was a period there. Were you served on the Bank of England. Yes in two thousand six. Six Golden Brown called me up and said Don. I wanted you to go to the Bank of England I said Oh okay And I want you to come to the really seriously. Ah So so. Monetary policy clearly is one of your specialties. How did you get into the sort of world of happiness and and in midlife crises? So what does the Central Bank you care about Central Bank as Aboud interest rates inflation unemployment growth. But they're into people don't care about that they care about how it impacts their wellbeing so I started to think about ultimately What impacts impacts their wellbeing so I actually have a paper? Brian Look at Tommy. Inflation and unemployment impact people's happiness so in a sense those things are intermediate goods. What we really do care about a people's happiness so I go to it and then I started to realize the patterns in the data while guests here high unemployment high I am happiness is absolutely right and so what I found was one of the big results from this is a one percentage point increase in unemployment has a big effect on people's happiness? So that's some of the stuff that I've been doing like really basic question is I mean obviously I know how we measure unemployment but how how did you go about measuring wellbeing. Like how do you measure happiness. Feels like that would have been a challenge at the start of this research absolutely So it turns out that there are many many many many many surveys around the world that actually ask people directly. How happy are you so sometimes they say in literally how happy I you on a scale of one to ten? How satisfied with your life? I you so these schools. Well the first thing. Is that the patterns in these data. When you ask this you pretty much get the same results? Every time most people are pretty happy very few people very unhappy and the same fluid ounces occur on it but I think what what you you would say. Why does this matter when it turns out? This is currently with things so happy people heal faster they live longer healthier so you you are are in the world of central banking. You get interested in happiness and well-being And then in two thousand seven you you release this. The sort of paper a had a huge impact on a lot of people. So can you kind of sort of set the scene. Two thousand seven. What was that paper? I started to work with number colleagues leagues on trying to think about these patterns. In happiness data and three things stood out the first one we just talked about that unemployment impacts it impacts happiness being married impacts it but one of the things we saw very easily so in the data was that happiness is high. When you're a young is high when you're old but this trough in the middle so this this you shake so this is what drove it? I'm particularly interested in deepening case. Talk about deaths of despair and particularly we seem a crisis in America suicides especially in drug poisoning deaths amongst the prime age in particular not prime age less educated folk. And there's that issue around the world so that's so that was really kind of the starting point I've done this study of one hundred thirty the two countries and what I find when average all together in advanced countries The the the the deer. If you like the low point of this happiness it is forty seven and when you do it for developing countries that got nine hundred five developing countries that do before very similar about forty eight point six so around forty eight That seems to be right. And what's interesting over the last couple of weeks. I've been talking a lot about lots of people. Call me and tweet it to me and and so on and said wow that really fits my life. So you've you've talked about this a little bit but I'd love to get like really specific. So what is it that that is causing. I do think I mean like what is it about I guess it was at forty seven point to you What is it what is going on that? That's making people unhappy at that age. Well I think if you look back. I'm a professor so I've lots of young people I teach these young folks And then they left home when they come through the university and they suddenly realize there's more than one way to cook an egg but all of that is pretty dumb tough especially these days where student loans and having to try and buy a house. What are you going to do with all of that stuff? This is really hard but I mean in the sense. What's interesting about it is this phenomena phenomenon appears to be true everywhere? It's not unique to Germany Japan the US and Canada African countries. You see it in Latin America seating Thailand highland so I think it's something that's the people the people are experiencing and then eventually I think eventually I think what happens is people get real. I mean some of the work have written said when you get to meet fifty you your aspiration start to become real when I was talking to you. You're in the Florida mangroves and yes and you write fishing right and that day you caught a fish right the was it again. It was a it was a twenty eight inch twenty pound redfish toward and and you so you sent me this picture. It's a picture of just for listeners. Out There WanNA picture You're just beaming. You still have your security. I have to say this professor blanchflower so We publish this article Ray and it goes on the web and twitter being witter. I had somebody are- tweet at me. And they said this. How are we supposed to trust any of this switch? Flower guys work when he blatantly lies about fishing that Royd ride nowhere near twenty pounds eight to ten pounds so any respond here. I mean I mean the question. It doesn't really rely the size of the faith. which is what I said relies on the fact that I looked awfully happy? You happy. You're on the you're on the upward swing of your happiness curve. We're on yes I've come to see my action sir. My son having a wedding party. Today's Louisiana but your children bring you joy. The grandkids life life improves.

Bank Of England Professor Dartmouth College Professor Of Economics Golden Brown Brian Look David. DON Royd America Louisiana Latin America Twitter Florida Thailand Witter Germany Canada
"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

NewsRadio KFBK

01:43 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK

"You were at the peak of your misery that's what really professor David Blanchflower from a former bank of England says holds now is a put a a position a professor of economics at Dartmouth study data across a hundred and thirty two countries to measure the relationship between well being in age are any concluded that in every country there is a happiness curve which is U. shaped over our lifetimes it reaches its lowest in the developing nations at forty eight point two however he says that there's a there another research paper which had interview the keepers of monkeys found a similar trend among primates really our primates going through midlife crisis to forty eight year old monkeys come it this during his theory that misery in middle age feels called like a universal constant something very natural is going on here maybe there's something in the genes he says when you have this hundred thirty to cut in thirty two countries reality is it was really hard to to not find it all they seem to be one happy it is a paper entitled happen is you shape everywhere and published by the.

David Blanchflower professor bank of England professor of economics Dartmouth
"david blanchflower" Discussed on As It Happens from CBC Radio

As It Happens from CBC Radio

01:31 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on As It Happens from CBC Radio

"If you just type the number forty seven into Google. The first result is from wikipedia. Forty seven is the natural number following forty-six and preceding forty eight. That's conceivably the most boring entry on a site that includes definitions of Towel saltine cracker and Ryan seacrest. But but I mean what do we expect. I mean wikipedia goes on to explain that forty. Seven is a prime number but don't tell that to an actual forty seven year old. They know there's nothing prime about it. That's according to former Bank of England. Economist David Blanchflower who looked at data from one hundred and thirty two countries in the developed world and found that forty seven point two is the age at which we tend to be most miserable professor blanchflower has just published a paper entitled is Happiness u-shaped everywhere that title refers to a graph which depicts people's mood from late adolescence. To Age seventy and starts high around age. Twenty and then descends dolefully hitting. Its Nadya read. Read forty seven point two before ticking back up through the fifties and sixties. Now if you're forty seven point two years old. Why does the low point of the you mark? The low point of view could be genetic primates like chimpanzees and orangutans apparently experienced a similar midlife. Bottoming out it could be all the responsibility which keeps piling up but eases as we get older. Whatever it is? If you're forty-seven it's whatever because while these kinds of studies try to get to the bottom of things you're already there.

David Blanchflower wikipedia Ryan seacrest Google Bank of England professor
"david blanchflower" Discussed on As It Happens from CBC Radio

As It Happens from CBC Radio

01:31 min | 1 year ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on As It Happens from CBC Radio

"If you just type the number forty seven into Google. The first result is from wikipedia. Forty seven is the natural number following forty-six and preceding forty eight. That's conceivably the most boring entry on a site that includes definitions of Towel saltine cracker and Ryan seacrest. But but I mean what do we expect. I mean wikipedia goes on to explain that forty. Seven is a prime number but don't tell that to an actual forty seven year old. They know there's nothing prime about it. That's according to former Bank of England. Economist David Blanchflower who looked at data from one hundred and thirty two countries in the developed world and found that forty seven point two is the age at which we tend to be most miserable professor blanchflower has just published a paper entitled is happiness u-shaped everywhere that title refers to a graph which depicts people's mood from late adolescence. To Age seventy and starts high around age. Twenty and then descends dolefully hitting. Its Nadya read. Read forty seven point two before ticking back up through the fifties and sixties. Now if you're forty seven point two years old. Why does the low point of the you mark? The low point of view could be genetic primates like chimpanzees and orangutans apparently experienced a similar midlife. Bottoming out it could be all the responsibility which keeps piling up but eases as we get older. Whatever it is? If you're forty-seven it's whatever because while these kinds of studies try to get to the bottom of things you're already there..

David Blanchflower wikipedia Ryan seacrest Google Bank of England professor
Brexit Is The Latest Blow To The British Pound, Once A Symbol Of Economic Might

Morning Edition

05:02 min | 2 years ago

Brexit Is The Latest Blow To The British Pound, Once A Symbol Of Economic Might

"It's been some time since Britain's empire extended around the world but the British pound long a symbol of Britain's global power is still a source of great pride in the country over the years though the pound has lost a lot of its luster and the turmoil surrounding brexit has hurt its stature even more you Jim zarroli in the late nineteen nineties Europe embarked on a radical experiment it got rid of Italy's lira Germany's Deutsche mark and the French Frank among others and replace them with a single monetary unit the euro only one major country refused to get on board Britain here is then chancellor of the exchequer Gordon brown we will not seek membership of the single currency on first January nineteen ninety nine the decision was driven by much more than economics the pound also known as the quit or sterling is a rich cultural symbol a powerful reminder of the past glory of the British Empire I'll notes have been adorned with some of the most illustrious figures in British history Shakespeare Dickens and Darwin today people such as Jacquelyn Cup for a pharmacist's assistant in London say giving up the pound is almost unthinkable I think it's because it is so you know you've got an old school friend to turn everything now talk about the talent and it's part of our kind of culture really I think anything that you try to replace it with it wouldn't did the talking I think the pound is encrusted with centuries of British tradition one pound was long week will take two hundred and forty pence it bewildered tourists in nineteen seventy one the government decided to simplify things one pound would now be worth one hundred pence it took some getting used to even students had to take classes in the new money how many new pen if you guys have in one house for new my mom doesn't like the fifty pence I today's twelve to make sure they're not the singer Max Bygraves even put out a song of through all the changes the pound has long symbolized Britain's economic might at one time the pound was used to buy and spend all over the world it paid for roads in Africa and railroads in India it financed cotton fields in the American south Neil Ferguson is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the author of the history of money if you go back to the nineteenth century the British pounds occupied the place in the global economy that the US dollar does today but as Britain's power wind so did the pound the government tried to stem the decline after the second World War travelers were barred from taking pounds out of the country you can take a holiday business alarms and travelers checks but not more than five pounds in studying those efforts like these not withstanding written over the years would have trouble controlling the pounds volatility the Ferguson remembers living through it my childhood was in some ways scarred by periodic sterling crises I think they were my introduction to economics as a boy growing up in Britain in nineteen ninety two came what was perhaps the worst crisis of all it was known as black Wednesday deep pocketed investors led by George Soros made enormous bets against the pound and the whole world watched as the pound collapsed the most dramatic turn in government if not extract you for twenty five years was forced on the prime minister and chancellor by the overwhelming pressure upon billions of being sold in the far next change mark Soros was said to have made a billion dollars in just one day since then the pound has only lost more ground today it's worth just a dollar twenty a fourth of what it was worth almost a century ago one big culprit lately has been brexit Britain's decision three years ago to leave the European Union sent the pound tumbling the government's chronic inability to come up with an exit plan has driven it even lower David Blanchflower is an economist at Dartmouth College the chaos that sits around a possible no deal brexit is scaring the markets and so the pound is folding steadily Blanchflower says the pound could soon be worth one dollar in the history of the pound that's never happened today the British pound with all its glorious tradition indoors but like the empire itself it's not quite what it used to be Jim zarroli NPR news New York

Britain One Pound Twenty Five Years Billion Dollars Five Pounds Three Years One Dollar One Day
"david blanchflower" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

05:49 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Water levels of stirred fears of a breach of flood defences put in place to run your lens following hurricane Katrina fourteen years ago when eighty percent of the city was submerged so for a long is there I'm on the levy on the south side of the Mississippi River you continually and suggestive then a full cost is updating the stones that is going to travel read the from the Gulf of Mexico just give me a sense of how high water levels already off people tell me the normally they can walk among the bushes and trees they have been almost completely submerged in water moves in thirty people have been killed as floods in Gulf parts of Nepal in the northeast in India the seasonal monsoon is swelling major rivers and causing chaos across the region his German conferring torrential rain his last north in India on the pole for several days affecting hundreds of thousands of people experts warn that is set to continue in the fall some towns in the south and parts of the capital Kathmandu have been inundated a family of three was killed in Katmandu when they're home collapsed landslides of swept away buildings and blocked roads in some areas the emergency services a using rubber boats to rescue the stranded for many this is an annual mystery as the seasonal monsoon courses widespread flooding eight civilians have reported have been killed in an airstrike in rebel held territory northwest in Syria the Syrian observatory for human rights of the casualties included two women and four children the scent of come under attack and farmlands near the city of Honshu hoon the attack has been blamed on the Russian Air Force which is supporting the Syrian government in its effort to recapture it live province from jihadi groups and other militants world news from the BBC firefighters in Hawaii are battling to control the raging wild fine this led to the evacuation of thousands of people the place on the island of Maui sometimes called the valley island has scorched more than four thousand hectares of former sugar cane fields and brush Hawaii's governor has declared Molly a disaster area critics have dismissed the reported approval by U. S. regulators of a five billion dollar penalty for Facebook as little more than a slap on the wrist they argue that the penalty would barely dent the company's profits Dave Lee reports from San Francisco the US Federal Trade Commission says Facebook had breached a promise it made in twenty eleven over how personal data that would be used what is not yet entirely clear is what additional measures may be imposed on Facebook in future such as independent oversight on the firm's privacy practices according to reports in the US media the measures won't include any personal repercussions for Facebook chief executive mark Zuckerberg Facebook told investors in April that it had already put aside most of the money needed to pay this penalty meaning there will be little financial strain on the company the US vice president Mike pence's visited to migrant detention centers near the border with Mexico to see the conditions that Democrats in Congress have condemned dissing humane and one facility he so nearly four hundred men crumbs behind metal fences with not enough room for the mall to line the concrete floor New Zealand police say the first event to buy buy guns at a lower bound following the mosque shootings in March that killed fifty one people has been a success is a one hundred and sixty nine people gave up several hundred weapons and accessories gun owners also appears supportive they were queuing up to hand in their weapons even before the event because on the way the handover took place in Christchurch BBC news hello and welcome to in the balance we're back for a new series and this time around we'll be bringing you a whole host of stories about her working lives today we start with the question of what makes a good job with the shift from manufacturing to service sector jobs in many industrialized countries we look at whether some jobs are providing a better quality of work than others what about job prospects as many of us not expect to have a number of different jobs or even careers across our working lives have been lost something and not having a job for life or have we gained new freedoms to reinvent ourselves I've got a group of guests to discuss all of these issues both here in the studio in London and in the United States but first let's hear from an eminent economist who's made a study of the job market and the quality of jobs in the US and Europe David Blanchflower professor of economics at Dartmouth College in the United States also used to be a member of the bank of England's monetary policy committee he's the author of a recent book on the subject cold not working where have all the good jobs gone the Great Recession pretty much changed everything particularly of being underemployed they haven't been able to get enough how is and they haven't been able to get job security I may have a very weak wage growth I'm particularly around the well what we've seen the people who the less educated especially have just seen the disappearing of these good jobs they seen them disappear in manufacturing and what we know in the states or is that people originally very worried about security so what happens to people in developed economies when jobs shift here in the U. K. for instance con manufacturing's being hit hard recently Honda and Ford will close sites next year these workers in South Wales an area previously devastated by the closure of coal mines in the nineteen eighties I'm not facing the loss of their jobs in the Ford car plant all of a sudden today is sort of a loan in you know I just think it's.

hurricane Katrina four thousand hectares five billion dollar eighty percent fourteen years
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

11:45 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is Bloomberg. Surveillance economics productivity is the key to real GDP growth view that replacement is going to be moving higher. But removing hiring a gradual Clinton's I don't think there's a reason to expect the dollar to keep going up. We don't realize how good times are now investment time, very pessimistic. I'm stocks. I'm very pessimistic on bonds. If you're longer term investor, you just wanna stay long, Bloomberg surveillance. With Tom Keene and Jonathan Farrell on Bloomberg radio. From New York City for our audience worldwide. Good morning. Good morning. This is Bloomberg surveillance alongside Tom Kaine Jonathan Farrow coming up on the program. President Mario Draghi making the case to pump more stimulus into the European economy expectations for further easing sky high as the fed begins its two day meeting in Washington fuelling another leg higher in the global bond market rally German bond yields make new record lows from the Bloomberg interactive. His studio hallowed shoes. They raise your Tuesday morning price action futures getting druggy and juice boost rough fifteen on the S and P five hundred positive a half of one percent. The price action in the bond market. We have a bid in treasuries twos all the way through to thirties, you ten year coming down five basis points. Two point zero four six percent. The two year note the yield coming in their four basis points in Germany. The story is follows a ten year yield that is negative thirty basis points down six basis points on the session alone as another headline crosses the Bloomberg the ACP officials see a rate cut is the primary toll for any new stimulus as the president himself sets us up for further action in the FX market has story looking like this, the euro negative two tenths of one percent. Dollar stronger across the bulk of g ten so let's begin with our big story. The president Mario Draghi. He may have just a few more months at the top of the but. Then may well be at least one more stimulus boost before he leaves in the absence of improvement, such that sustained return inflation to our aim is threatened additional stimulus will be required additional stimulus may well, be required. Joining us here in the studio alongside Tom Cain and myself Dane, Cournot, macro risk advises CEO, good morning today, and what a morning already is sure. Sure is lots of fireworks on the monetary policy side. What are we expected from the now? Well, I think that this is. I think this was predictable. I think that the efforts to start to taper their bond buying that whole process, I think it was rather predictable that this was not going to be something that they could fulfil the reason I say that is because the challenges these faces are just so monumental, just given the demographic shortfall that Europe has the weakness of the banking system and the fact that implementing policies just it's difficult in a euro-zone relative to United States. So I'm not surprised that they're here and I'm not surprised that he's back trying to do what, what they can moving parts this morning. The president now weighing in on all of this saying that Mario Draghi just announced. Most stimulus could come which immediately dropped the euro against the dollar making it unfairly easier for them to compete against the United States. They've been getting away with this for years, along with China and others that was inevitable to wasn't it is. But it's a conflict to the student, Donald Trump. It's. Something David Blanchflower seen in Zee Carmona one course. It's conflicting tertiary effect. Clearly weaker euro with the fundamental blunt instruments that are out there, and you really going to see this, a change fed tone tomorrow. I mean it's Michael Mckee said, on one of my other properties. John, he doesn't know what his questions going to beat or moral, to chairman Powell after what we saw this morning. What would that in mind, does it put more pressure on the Federal Reserve, the global easing cycle arguably just about to begin the in Australia of night in the minute sangha further. Right. Cut is more likely than not the tank action. We see the headline drop across the Bloomberg that if we get more action. The option could be to drop interest rates further is that added pressure to champion pound and co tomorrow, I'm not sure if the fed is either following the global easing cycle, where it is the global using cycle. Meaning that the moment that the fed removed it start plot in terms of its tightening expectations this year, and then now is tilted towards pay. Patients and now he's going to be even more towards actual easing. I think it's hooves every other central Bank to actually follow. So if the fed isn't tightening. No other central banks tightening at this point, we'll come over you worldwide quite a morning here, myrow drug, where Sintra Portugal in Portugal, another conference in a bombshell speech by mirrow drug. I rarely use the word John. That was truly corrected. He stunned markets and what's important me. John with data. Check you just did is we've got a new leg down lower interest rates. Just in the last five minutes, I'm using German tenure yield to a new negative, negative point three zero six and also US equity futures advance up another steady basis points on German, tenure paper and French tenure paper threatening to territory as well just negative Goodwin to negative when not quite yet. If you missed the druggy speech, it really is with rate in the whole thing at the end of his tenure, he's left, emphasizing the bird and put on monetary policy. The failure to act out specifically points again, the failure of fiscal and the failure of Bank recapitalizations as well. And he's left making the case to do even more twenty two times in this speech Dane. He mentioned the word fiscal is monetary policy going to get a how ping hand from somewhere else. Boy, you'd hope so at this point, I think that the in the minds of investors, we know that monetary policy does something it acts most aggressively on asset prices themselves. I'm sure it's got some marginal impact on growth and inflation. But it's an asset price tool first and foremost. And I think the hand off that this is back to the Ben banenky days from two thousand twelve when the US was facing the fiscal cliff in Brunetti articulated, that the fed had wear more of the burden of the stimulating the economy because the politics and the US were so broken hard to say that seven years later, they're not even further divided and broken. They were where in your space or in the business of macro risk advisors is the opportunity right now. Let's get a little geeky, where's the opportunity? Right. So I want to be a crisis monger. But I think we're up against okay. Okay. We're on radio. That is so the, the work that we're doing on behalf of clients right now is, is hedging, I think that there is a strong case to be made that there's opportunities to spend premium so writing money on insurance to protect against that could be out as near mortals do that. Not the fancy pants people. You're talking to I've got a two zero one k John Tucker's build it up to three. Oh, one k, how do I hedge? Right. So there's a number of things you can do, right. For first and foremost, the, the most basic edges, actually just to de risk the portfolio take down some of your exposure, sit on the sidelines a little bit. And if the first time in so long, even as, as interest rates around the world rally the markets rally rates come down. You're still sitting at actually deposit rates. If you're clever, you can get to two point three percent, just thought overnight deposit rates in the US. That's not something we saw in in. In the post crisis era very much. So I'd say first and foremost, take some chips off the table in terms of your liquid exposures, though, for institutional clients, and that's the segment that we cover a lot of the exposures illiquid. We know that the credit markets ability to withstand selling pressure has been tested, many times over the past couple of years, and it's illustrated for Jili. I think that speaks to the late cycle nature of credit markets. And so those folks are stuck in some ways, if they wanna hedge, they can't just get out, and so one of the things that we would advocate for is buying options. And there's a number of them that you can buy the H Y is the credit ETF you saw this trade in substantial size in terms of the option trades that went up in the fourth quarter. We started this more of that happen. These are basic put option traits. Nothing too fancy. These are listed options, you can go in. And by them pretty pretty easily. I wouldn't say that there's screaming cheap in terms of their implied volatilities right now. But I'd advocate for buying some put options on the H Reggie and you not a pound a bat. You never usually this cautious to hey, you say we could be on the cusp of something significant, what is giving you the conviction that we could be on the cusp of something significant. Hey, why is this not just a repeat of the growth scans at twenty seven two thousand twelve fifteen sixteen? What does this filth different, right? And I think it could be a repeat of those growth. So, I think first and foremost, I think we should all acknowledge, we, we have really very little idea as to what's going to happen next. We're seeing this very haphazard policy play out in on Twitter with respect to negotiations on trade. We've seen tariffs a weaponized I think it's starting to really accumulate in terms of. How it impacts business decision making go back to the gross scare of let's say, twenty fifteen remember, Trump came in through a huge, huge tax cut, as well as a really a fiscal stimulus at the market, a big budget deal done that through a lot of money into the economy on behalf of the government spending. And so that's the part where I'm worried that the ability for monetary policy to do much from here, the haphazard -ness of the trade negotiations and what doesn't seem like even as Mary druggie mentions the fiscal side times in his speech. I don't see a big fiscal impulse coming from the major economies current think of so many things advisors on the important day, dragging chains his minute Miller, like what he said, the bazooka was out again. And I mean, it was a rhetorical bazooka to say we see deterioration in yields over the last ten minutes. One point eight four on a two year becomes one point eight three. Futures advance up fourteen. Dow futures up one six in the vix fifteen point zero to fourteen handle a bit ago. And after the news for New York City is Manco. Thank you very much. Jonathan thank you. Tom the confrontation with Iran intensified this morning. The Pentagon is now sending thousand more troops to the Middle East in the wake of recent attacks onto oil tankers this as a Ron threatens to ramp up its nuclear program in the coming days. Protesters are not accepting the latest biology issued today by Hong Kong's chief executive carry lamb. They are demanding that the controversial extradition. Bill is scrapped all together and Lam resign, lamb indicated that the legislation will not be revived during the current legislative session. However, lamb did not formally retract. The measure that would allow some suspects face trial in mainland. Chinese courts, global news, twenty four hours a day on air and a tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts in more than twenty countries. Michael barr. This is Bloomberg. Thanks. Let me quote the euro, the president's looking at this. Morning..

Bloomberg Federal Reserve United States president President Mario Draghi John Tucker New York City Twitter Donald Trump Tom Keene Tom Kaine Jonathan Farrow Clinton Germany Michael Mckee Europe lamb David Blanchflower Tom Cain
"david blanchflower" Discussed on KTRH

KTRH

03:50 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on KTRH

"Pledge with us kids can bring happiness to their mothers and fathers. But parents need dough before they can delight in those expensive. Bundles of joy, marketwatch reporter, Andrew cash says research on life satisfaction statistics, largely show children do not raise your level of happiness. And yet people still keep having kids, and then do it again, Andrew give us some findings when they have kids that actually reduces their happiness. And yet people keep having kids. And so the question of what gives with that? You know, kind of like the you old Jeff not about insanity of doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results. And what they found is when they adjusted the data to see, you know, when they basically factored out worries about paying bills people went from having kids increase their happiness. So it's basically it's just the burden of the bills that waste so much on parents. That's interesting. Wow. So for those who are well off for this. It's not an issue necessarily. Yeah. Exactly. You know? No, I if if you don't have if you have the money to live your life in a four children who as we all know can be extremely expensive. It's no big deal. But for people who, you know, have a tighter budget. It can be actually can introduce more stress, and you know, one of the things that was funny to me, you know, when I talk to the professor Dr David Blanchflower about me, personally, I have a five year old almost eight year old. So it was like this is kinda obvious to people who have to deal with care Bill all the time. And he said it's obvious, but knowing actually had ever put it in paper before you had to put the numbers behind, you know, the feeling before so interesting, so what about then happiness measured in life stages? Like, maybe when the kids are in daycare in so happy, but we're in there at a daycare things are different. You will. Yeah. Again, it gets you know, that big hobby out of, you know, if you're adjusting for the, you know, adjusting for financial difficulties so what they did is, you know, when they also adjusted for the financial difficulties, and they looked at life stages parents of kids through up to age ten it increased happiness a lot parents of Ken to fourteen year olds you know, the happiness was still there. But it was not nearly as pronounced and, you know, wanna be hazard you wanted to get his. Of the professors, just kind of boiled it down to you know, just trying to raise teenagers use it to a middle income married. Couple raising a child in twenty fifteen spent sixteen percent more than a family raising a child in nineteen sixty. I assume that's injustice for inflation. What's going on the Justin for inflation? I think part of what's going on there and not not data from the US department of agriculture. I think part of it is just cost of living is increasing. And let's not forget childcare, which is going up and up and up. And and I think that probably has a lot to deal with to do with it. Andrew marketwatch reporter, Andrew cash ner. It is thirty minutes now after the hour on This Morning, America's first news. Houston zoo, weather, traffic,.

Andrew cash Dr David Blanchflower marketwatch reporter Jeff US department of agriculture Houston zoo Ken America professor sixteen percent thirty minutes fourteen year eight year five year
"david blanchflower" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

KTAR 92.3FM

03:33 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on KTAR 92.3FM

"Their mothers and fathers. But parents need dough before they can delight in those expensive bundles of joy market watch. Reporter Andrew cash says research on life satisfaction statistics, largely show children do not raise your level of happiness, and yet people still keep having kids, and then do it again, Andrew give us some findings when they have kids that actually reduces their happiness. And yet, you know, people keep having kids. And so the question of what gives with that? You know, kinda like the old eob about insanity of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. And what they found is when they adjusted the date up to see, you know, when they basically factored out worries about paying bills people who went from having kids increased their happiness. So it's basically it's the burden of the bills that way so much on parent. That's interesting while so for those who are well off this. It's not an issue necessarily. Yeah. Exactly. I if if you don't have, you know, if you have the money to live your life in a four children who you know, as we all know can be extremely expensive. It's no big deal. But for people who, you know, whoever tighter budget. It can be actually can introduce more stress, and you know, one of the things that was funny to me, you know, when I talk to the professor Dr David Blanchflower about it me personally, I've a five year old almost eight year old. So it was like this is kinda obvious to people who have to deal with care Bill all the time. And he said it obvious by knowing actually had ever put it in paper before you kind of put the numbers behind. You know, the feeling before interesting. So what about then happiness measured in life stages? Like, maybe when the kids are in daycare in so happy, but we're in there at a daycare things are different you. And again, it gets you know, that big caveat of, you know, if you're adjusting for the adjusting for financial difficulties so what they did is, you know, when they also adjusted for the financial difficulties, and they looked at life stages parents of kids through up to age ten it increased happiness a lot parents of ten to fourteen year olds you know, the happiness was still there. But it was not nearly as pronounced, and, you know, wanna be hazard you wanted to get. The professor was just you know, kind of boils down to you know, just trying to raise teenagers use it to a middle income married. Couple raising a child and twenty fifteen spent sixteen percent more than a family raising a child in nineteen sixty. I assume that's justed for inflation. What's going on? Justin, fern flation. I think being a part of what's going on there. And not to navigate it from the US department of agriculture. I think part of it is just cost of living is increasing. And let's not forget childcare, which is going up and up and up. And I think that probably has a lot to deal with to do with it. He's Andrew marketwatch reporter, Andrew cash ner. It is thirty minutes now after.

Andrew cash reporter Dr David Blanchflower professor US department of agriculture fern flation sixteen percent thirty minutes fourteen year eight year five year
"david blanchflower" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

KOA 850 AM

01:57 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on KOA 850 AM

"Results. And what they found is when they adjusted the data to see, you know, when they basically factored out worries about paying bills people went from having kids increase their happiness. So it's basically it's the burden of the bills that waste so much on parent. That's interesting. Wow. So for those who are well off for this. It's not an issue necessarily. Yeah. Exactly is I if if you don't have, you know, if you have the money to, you know, live your life and afford children who you know, as we all know can be extremely expensive. It's no big deal. But for people who, you know, whoever tighter budget. It can be actually can introduce more stress, and you know, one of the things that was funny to me when I talked to the professor at Dartmouth David Blanchflower about me, personally, I've a five year old almost eight year old. So it was like this is kinda obvious to people who have to deal with Bill and all the time. And he said it's obvious, but knowing actually had ever put it in paper before kind of put the numbers behind. You know, the feeling before interesting. So what about then happiness measured in life stages? Like, maybe when the kids are in daycare in so happy, but we're in there at a daycare things are different. You will. Yeah. Again, it gets that big caveat of, you know, if you're adjusting for the adjusting for financial difficulties so what they did is, you know, when they also adjusted for the financial difficulties, and they looked at life stages parents of kids through up to age ten it increased happiness a lot parents.

Bill David Blanchflower professor eight year five year
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

11:02 min | 2 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Forecasts live for the Bloomberg. Interactive brokers studios this morning. Good morning to you. Let's whip through some of the price action, shall we futures? A whole lot softer after the European Commission slashes its growth forecast futures here in the United States intriguingly down six tenths of one percent on the S and P five hundred a lot of corporate news flow to get through BBN t- planning to acquire SunTrust the consolidation of the regionals starting to ramp up a little bit of sixty six billion dollar deal. That's what the all sham merger would be valued at it would create also the sixth largest Bank in the United States a little bit more on that a little bit lighter. The other corporate news flow. We've got to get up to speed with his Twitter. As those earnings cross. The Bloomberg Twitter. Today's continue reporting monthly active users after the first quarter a little bit of a move Allah. Apple maybe we can talk about this one a little bit later as well. Twitter saying first quarter revenue seven hundred and fifteen million to seven hundred seventy five million the estimate seven hundred sixty six the fourth quarter numbers coming in just shy of a billion dollars at nine hundred. Eight point eight million the estimate eighteen hundred and sixty seven point one and Tom Kaine the price action this morning Switzer just a bit softer damn by more than one percent or Twitter. Bit softer extraordinary. We've got lean on this Bank merger, which is huge way. Did I John what fourteen times at Davos, including Brian moynahan? Somebody said look now's the time for the regional it is. And there we have it the Bank of England where do you want to start with you want to start with Bank of England in their growth. Forecasts code is you want to go to banks. What do you want to do? We can start with the banking too. Because we have on the face leader wonder wonderful, president does growth forecasts on with the Bank of England leaving interest rates unchanged at zero point seven five percent, leaving its asset purchase program unchanged as well. Okay. You some of the details on a forecast in just a moment. I just want to get to Adam Adam posted on what is happening with the Bank of England. How on earth that meant to respond to the global slowdown at the same time. There is Brexit debate taking place in the background. Now, they can't they can't Johnson, by the way, I'm in the Bloomberg radio studio, but the the Bank of England at some point has to just say, a we we have where we go depends on how breaks works out and be a real shock to the economy. And that's what this is not a monetary inflation chalk is something we can't necessarily offset. How does the institution react if we understand and imposing a new, and I think of John writing in a saw David Blanchflower to select few that really have a working knowledge of this. How does Bank of England react differently than so many of our American listeners perception of the fed. Well, it's partly it's a different institution as you said, Tom. I mean, the fed there's just so much more freighting around the chair as important as governor Carney is the at the Bank has a lot more independence. A lot more voice than the FOMC does members with the US. And so you have the fact that when they say nine zero unanimity at the Bank of England actually carries more weight. That's one thing. I'd certainly emphasise John. Let's go through some of the new shall we say the Bank of England counting the twenty one thousand nine hundred eighty p forecast up one point two percent versus the one point seven percent for cows. Sing it flation at two point one percent on eight two year three year. Horizon just slightly above the target there. But the the growth forecast being cut the Bank of England essentially saying that the damage being dumped by the Brexit situation has increased put it all together. It's a really difficult position for the Bank giving the caution that a lot of people are having at the moment is governor county essentially sank, we don't know what the next move would be in the event of a no deal hard Brexit. Would it be a hike to control prices or would it be cut to support output? Adam. Can we all just assume they would just support output? No for and look through the price pressure. No, we can't. I mean, I predicted this two and a half years ago that this is where the Bank of England would end up if we got to Brexit and governor Carney NBC are being totally responsible. Basically, if if if you thought that the hard Brexit was going to be a one time shock like when the UK dropped out of the in ninety two then the Bank. You can say, okay, we're gonna look through us. But if you think it is a regime shift, which I think must be considered to be and a representation of how vitamin dysfunctional British politics are then there's fundamental confidence doubts about the pound about the viability. So therefore, you got the race is that I was going to go to that. Adam posing knowing you wanted to pound sterling historic low, call at one nineteen off of Brexit is the wealth destruction of pound sterling the only thing that will get the elites to wake up to getting this debate solved. I'm not sure I Tom I think we've got a real as tight as little England. There is between the city and the political elites it's now out of out of the so-called elites hands. It's in the hands of Theresa May. And her back benchers and Jeremy Corbyn in the unite radical union and those they're determine both of them ideologically. And they're they're Clack are committed to ending free movement, meaning movement of other people in Europe in and out of the UK and UK people in and out of Europe. So Adam we've got much more to talk about than just Brexit. The European Commission out about an hour or so ago slashing forecast for eurozone growth at slashing forecast for Italy as well, the Italian one much more dramatic from one point two percent of forecast in November slash down to just zero point two percent future. Self the back of this here in the United States. Just the mood music is a whole lot more traumatic. I think this morning and the central Bank response uncertain not just the Bank of England and we've had the Reserve Bank of India with a surprise right Cup. We had a strategy of back away the other day, and we still struggle to get our hands around how the is going to respond to a slower gloomier outlook for the euro zone. What's your base case? Adam. My base cases that everybody goes on hold that they'll be this uncertainty, whether they raise once or or mess with the deposit rate because there's this Bruner Meyer backwards effect on banks, but they're they're basically going to be on hold. I would discount the Reserve Bank of India. I mean, this is why they pushed out the previous governors was could have a governor who would be soft Bank reform and soft on on inflation ahead of the election. So that that doesn't represent anything. But the underlying theme which I talked about Tom on TV surveillance is Larry Summers secure stagnation that we've got a very low real rate of interest, very low investment demand around the world if central banks try to raise rates terrible things happen. I mean, I just can't I wanted to squeeze in one more question. John for if I could Dr Posen, but John I can't convey the shift in the last ten weeks, and I want to say once again, folks, John and I- revenue beverage of our choice pre-christmas, John. You said the year doesn't start till March first, and you look like a genius right now. There's a lot of happy talk through January. The price action. People were saying Larry Summers was wrong. Well, here we are Dr pros, and I want you to fold in secular stagnation with Gregg tips. Brilliant column today in the Wall Street Journal defining true. Socialism versus American redistributive policy, which is taken a socialism, but is not anywhere near a socialism that the Peterson institute could study in America. Now, we're not I mean, it doesn't happen here. What we do have some people jokingly call socialism for rich people or socialism for special interests. We've got all kinds of tax breaks and subsidies for stashed interest groups not going to the working poor so socialism, really now, a days means social democracy means western Europe. Frankly, as you've said, Tom, and many people have observed, you know, the the the boogeyman as Greg it puts out can be as well, it can be Sweden, you know, and it's socialized medicine in these terms. Don't do any work as we say Indian Indian till actual business. What you really need is a readjustment that the US is so far off the track of every other rich democracy in terms of the security provides its citizens in terms of the revenue it gets for its government. In terms of the public goods provides US has to get back on track for that. Whether as Greg hip talks about we're gonna make it a backyard Tong, whether we're gonna make it through demand. I don't know. But ultimately, this is not pitch for from the street. If there were pitchforks in the streets. They should have come out a few weeks ago when Trump officials were laughing at the US workers government workers. Thank you. Dr pros. The new slow John is just extraordinary, Adam. Thank you. Daddy. Peterson institute. President study banking account gets growth forecast, the European Commission doing the same thing this morning, Tom and some risk aversion bleeding global markets. I don't think it is that dramatic just more dramatic rhetoric to the happy talk January agreed in it's a grind lower stirring, one twenty eight seventy one the United States softer by about six seven tenths of one percent. We've had a big move through January and into February. And the discussion I kept him in on the buy side for the last week is whether you should fight the strength. And I think that's going to be a discussion that a lot of people have through the morning as well. So futures negative six seven tenths of one percent growth. Forecasts has slashed the debate the policy response what it looks like in the air to come right here on Bloomberg radio. Now, the news in New York City. Here's Michael Barr. Tom Jonathan thank you, very much Virginia's three top elected officials all Democrats are facing calls to resign. The state's top attorney general admitted that he to war black face in the past. It comes just days after a racist photo on the governor Ralph Northam medical school yearbook page and Lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax's, fighting sexual assault. Allegations Representative Alexandria or Cossio Cortez of New York released a sweeping package of environmental measures today, the proposals which have come to be known as the green new deal recrafted in conjunction with Senator Ed Markey of Massachusetts. They're planning vision shifting away from Basel fuels and other sources of local warming causing emissions in ten years. Global news twenty four hours a day on the internet tick tock on Twitter, powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than one hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael Barr. This is Bloomberg. Tom. So the congresswoman from the Bronx is dealing with the conservative, Ed Markey. Is that how that works something like? Michael Barr history in the making thank you so much stay with us worldwide, John Farrow and Tom Keene..

Bank of England United States Adam Adam Bank Tom John Bloomberg Twitter Reserve Bank of India European Commission Brexit Larry Summers Peterson institute Europe UK Interactive brokers president Senator Ed Markey SunTrust
"david blanchflower" Discussed on Reasons to be Cheerful

Reasons to be Cheerful

01:55 min | 3 years ago

"david blanchflower" Discussed on Reasons to be Cheerful

"There are some actuates on the both researchers are british one guy in the eye andrawes walden dumb and david blanchflower ablaze far teaches in the in the states um have shown that if you measure people's wellbeing over time it shaped like a you with a gentle downward curve people are happy in their twenties and thirties a begin a dip in their their their 30s i mean they're 40s really start bottoming out in their 50s so i guess you're on the brink of that yet thing on them and then it will hold on in that and then they start coming back they start coming back up and what's interesting about that this research is that has been replicated in more than seventy countries so the something is not cultural is not national it is so if you look at the curve for wellbeing in the in the uk it's gonna look like the same the same as it would in the united arab emirates rights is pretty remarkable but i mean if you've you think you have it bad the the nadir of wellbeing for american males is fifty point nine years and i am 53 and so you're getting me so you getting me actually just come i've come over the home yulia exception though no but now here's the thing but here's the thing thing by tonic the we're we're talking in basically the mid afternoon you're going to be a fifty three years old mid average ina and you've not enough pacino i have not had a you know what i actually had a little napa chino earlier in the day because i was so shocked but you new eu ginkgo advice about what you should do i was telling my wife about this last night on this morning which is that you should make a list of 25 things you want to do disciple the five most important on then get rid of the deal the twenty this is warren buffett's advice yeah that were above yes i warren buffett advice ethic is great advice up because i think a lot of times we try to do we try to do too many things and reach have to focus on what are the you know what a simply what are the most important thanks obviously doing a podcast that lila a fifth of that.

uk chino david blanchflower united arab emirates yulia napa warren buffett fifty three years nine years