17 Burst results for "David Auerbach"

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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04:28 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"But one of the nice things about dropping into different subcultures is, yeah, you'll stumble on stuff that seems to be that no one in your peer group has ever heard of. Someone brought up the Russian video game pathologic last night. And I was like, holy crap, I happen to have played that, but I can't say that I talk to anyone else who has. It was really, it was just like what are the chances? And that's the thing is that there's this sheer volume of it is such that it's hard to make something for a mass audience that because there's that much less of a shared collective knowledge. Well, last thought though, when you say mass audience, I mean, if there was, I don't know if it was 2 million or 7 million people that watched the last episode of mash, but these days. It was like a relatively speaking, 80 million. What is a mass audience? If you can get out there to 80 million today, it has a relatively modest body. And so it's still as big as the greatest mass audience of the previous epoch. So is it just a matter that we are living with just a different scale of access and communication? Content creation has dropped more, too. I mean, soon enough, people will literally be, you know, I'll be able to make a new Humphrey Bogart movie in 20 years. With whatever machine learning. I was just saying with a runway. So maybe sooner, but that's the thing is that the bar of content creation and content distribution. And obviously there are people who are trying to keep control of that. But it is slipping. Gradually, I think everyone will agree with that. And I think that it's accelerating since interest rates went up. There's less money being fed into VC backed firm and so there's that much less attempts to control sort of what's popular and what's big. And that's so Succession, you know, however much you like it, is that idea of a prestige show, I think, is somewhat dying out as well. Simply because, you know, I might be able to find something that I like more and so not enough to produce. There's never a critical mass for anything. Well, let's and let's not even get started about there was a time when everyone saw the same movie that wasn't a superhero movie. Okay, we should wrap I'm going to do the plugs and then crystal close us out. David auerbach, the book that we've been talking about mostly is mega nets, how digital forces beyond our control commandeer are daily lives and inner realities. He has a previous book called bitwise, a life and code. Check those both out. And I'm going to thank you personally, and now Chris is going to thank you. Yeah, well, again, David, thank you so much for coming on the show. Thank you. This is great. I'm really appreciate it. We're so people go to find more about you, either follow you on some social media platform or let's see. Well, if you search on mega nets, you'll turn up. This is the best thing. I search for these things. I have a power stack. And. I'm on Twitter as auerbach Keller, which is a Goethe reference, which no one ever gets, but it's a reference to both. And so I should probably change that, but whatever. And I'm in the other usual spots too, but reading the book, that's probably the best thing to do. And for the coders out there, yes, I need a bit was that people would know that I had some idea what I was talking about. You're on little self label there. All right, well, David, thank you very much for coming on the show. Appreciate it. Thank you so much for having me.

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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05:38 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Was weird. And it turns out that it used to be a hospital. But it looked like a little like fortress with circular, like a bunch of circular cylinders connected together. And I looked it up and I was like, oh, it was created because at the time, the thinking was that corners spread disease. No, this is really the reason. That's why they've got these round cylinders, cylindrical things. So there's so much that will get revised going forward. And we're expecting machines to grasp and track that evolution. It's going to be an exact. And yeah, that's the constraints contribution is to say that language is, is that is the yardstick that you're measuring with another yardstick that you don't have something to appeal to and say, okay, did I say that right or not? That in effect we're all doing a bit of legislation and saying, okay, this is how I think language should be used. Every time we speak. And I think now we're doing that we're telling that to chat GPT. I'm by speaking chat GPT is legislating to us as well. I think the thing to close out. One of the things that was really stood out to me and why I think the concept of Megan X appealed to me was, of course, with my relationship to the hashtag, it has created kind of flocking behavior within people where previously there weren't, you know, words that existed that captured a certain idea or experience. And that upon doing upon sort of the invention in the flow of language, whether it's like hashtag me too or hashtag Black Lives Matter, these were words that didn't have purchased previously. And then through the mechanisms and the speed of those feedback mechanisms, now you can have broad participation by a set of people that previously perhaps were not franchised. And so yeah, yeah, the actors attractors. Exactly. And I mean, I think, so this is my own philosophical bias, which is that I don't think language works the same online as it doesn't person. That I think fundamentally different about talking to people in that sort of disconnected way. As opposed to speaking to them and embodied world because basically you're taking away that much more grounding of, okay, like, oh, I'm pointing to this and we're seeing the same language. And I think the way that gets compensated for is that you fold yourself into a micro community that speaks the same language at least. It's not just the terms with which you identify yourself. It's also a whole vocabulary. If you're talking about wokeness, that's very different than if you're talking about intersectionality. The mere use of those terms is enough to conclusive or exclusive. Well, it's interesting because everyone's like, well, you would never say that to me if I was in front of you, but you'll comment and say terrible things to me on my YouTube post or whatever. But what you're saying is the actual functionality of the language is different. Yeah. I think so. Yeah, I think that if you look at it, it can't make meaning in the way that it does in real life, or at least it does so it's much more. Like with meme ification and the shorthand that that is how not to use memes, but that's almost a grammar that is not used, it's used. We quote from movie lines and stuff to each other in person at a bar watching the football game or whatever. But it's not used as much as it is online for that. So a way to think about language as an operating system is there's a bootstrapping method by which you kind of arrive at saying, what is the sort of assumptions or primitives or I guess like language modules that we can take for granted. And memes from movies only work if you are in the same operating system culture because you've seen the same movies. And Indian culture, Japanese culture, they don't make any sense to me because I haven't seen the movie, but I have no idea what they're talking about. So that particular is lost on me, because I'm in the wrong operating system. Yeah, and now you're getting and I think the thing is is that there's no overriding mass culture, the extent that there was 40 years ago, even when I was growing up, no one watches all even, I mean, I don't think you could even get something like the end of The Sopranos anymore where everybody was complaining about it. But it's a very particular issue. And I was like, momentarily, like, the left of us, niche. And we were all sharing. But also think about there's another thing. Think about the time shifting of it, where everybody watched mash at the same time. Everyone now knows the wire or Breaking Bad, not everyone. But not everyone. But not everyone did in the same time scale as well. So there was a language for people that were on the wire or Breaking Bad from day one that for years people that was a language that they didn't understand. Yeah. And now I think it's fracturing even more. The wire, I think that's still going to have a much bigger, it has a much bigger resonance than Succession well. And I love Succession, so I'm not going to complain about it, but you know,

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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03:48 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Up too big too quickly. One of the things that's experimenting with those sorts of. What I would suggest to people who are. At the work of these companies. I mean, the thing is these companies themselves are frequently huge entities. So the will to do so. It often has to come from. Even one company isn't enough you need to you need to get coordination between multiple companies to agree to do things. That could happen. So in effect, I guess even simpler than that, I would say, start thinking about things from more systematic perspective rather than looking at. Individual actors because the individual actors, you can't shape them that much. I remember, I remember someone suggesting many years ago, oh, shaming people on Twitter with pop ups to prevent them from acting to negative. And I was like, yeah, sure, that'll work. They have that. It did show that there was some it's one of those it's not attunement, but eventually you become sort of a near to them. And if you want to call them what I'm talking about, like you will. And it's just like, you're bad. Yeah. No, actually, that's what I really want to say, you know? Yeah, or you express yourself in ways that don't trigger it. It's for a long time. And with varying success. So one thing is that it's like, oh, or I think I quote this in the book, my favorite headline. This was from 2016 with it's time for the beats to rise up against the ignorant masses. The mere fact that you have to write an article and publish it with that title shows that it's not going to happen. One thing that I want to bring up as a rapper is you wrote about Wittgenstein. And I don't think we've ever brought up, we can sign on the podcast before. And I will admit that's where the yard stick analogy is from, actually. So perfectly already brought them up, yeah. I feel like over the next period of time, I'm going to need to actually do a little bit more digging because a lot of his philosophy around language and words and the experience of words is so pertinent to this moment that we're in. This large language model kind of epoch that is upon us. Is exactly what in which, as you were talking about labels, and labels being either self asserted or applied to other people, determines, in some ways, who you are to the system. And what recommendations you receive. And so the degree to which there is not a label that is sufficient to describe you or your interests or perhaps the negative space, which are negative labels, which are things you haven't experienced yet, could be an opportunity to essentially create a backlog of here are all the ideas that are still out there that you haven't yet discovered yet. And negative steps recommendation system. Well, I think we all go around assuming with this idea that things are more that are language, expression, even our concepts are more grounded than they actually are. And if you look back at if you look back at the history, it's concepts evolve at a incredible. And as we started, Bill Gates was like, oh, that's not the words I really mean. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. I was walking by a house at an apartment complex yesterday. And I was like, oh, it

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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03:25 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Taking it 15° to the right or left a little bit. We have thousands of listeners that work at big tech companies, tech platforms that I don't think any of them will be surprised at your assertion that no one's really in control, you know? I know. I know. Yeah, I know. So that's my start off the book, I say this conversation I have where many people is like, well why don't you just fix that and all the engineers I know are like. Okay, well, I guess maybe this is unfair, but my question was going to be a listener like that that believes either in their company or in their original. Why did I get into tech? I want to make a dent in the universe. If you're working at these platforms, do you have any advice for those folks who want to make them better? I mean, yeah, I think that what you want to look at is what interventions actually have been effective. And I mean, to some extent, even the people on the ground, I'd say this from experience, you're often engineers are being told to do impossible things by executives. So they may also we don't have advice on how to change that. I'm afraid, but the advice I give at the end of the book or some suggestions is to look at these not as non targeted mechanisms of making recommendation algorithms. And breaking up homogeneous coagulation of social groupings and content groupings and in fact not requiring a greater degree of data validation. There's so much data that goes through the often is not accurate. Facebook thought I was black for a number of years. They may still. I didn't tell them that. I don't know where they got that from. If there was more of an emphasis on even validating. Elective third party data that would do something for it, but you wouldn't even have to validate it, you could just poison it and say, okay, look, we're not we're not going to take that we're not going to go on the assumption that this data is correct or we're just going to intentionally corrupt it because we can't validate it anyway so it makes things up. I know TikTok was actually trying to show more heterogeneous content to people after a lot of pro anorexia videos were getting shown and recommended. That's the sort of thing that I think can work is that you're not looking at stamping that stepping that stuff out. You just don't want you just want people to be taken out of a narrative bunker in which everything they see has the same set of shared assumptions. You're kind of talking about sort of introducing some decay perhaps into the system. In some way to get people out of their kind of information cul de sacs that sort of I think that's I think that will help a lot. Yeah, along with the sort of the negative feedback mechanisms to decrease viral spread and prevent anything from blowing

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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01:35 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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06:01 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Unfortunately, I think we're seeing that there are some emergent properties when you do that that lead to nastiness, like if you give people what they want and what they wanted some really is stuff that a lot of other people think is bad or whatever, you've just exacerbated it. So I think this raises a very interesting generational generational X societal or cultural question. Which is to the degree to which these things are kind of bad for us. Both individually and collectively. It's almost like an information nutrition problem. And we've had to learn and teach ourselves over time, what is sort of a balanced and healthy approach to consuming calories and a distribution of calories and proteins and vitamins and all the rest. In order to maintain something of a healthy existence. In a similar way, I think the question of digital health or that was the word I used. Anyways, let me know in those lines. Thank you. I call it data hygiene. There is a question as to the degree to which we need to teach people about these systems about how they are affected by these systems and also how they affect the systems themselves. And yet, I guess, and I'm curious if you touched on this in the book. What are interventions that could actually happen at scale, where you change the fitness function of humanity to be seen or to be living within the mega net? That's the last chapter of the book, which is what you can do. Okay, great. Because I think that these mega nets are you can't educate people enough because it's like saying it's like educating people to recycle and use less fuel. It doesn't make enough of an impact. You need some sort of but it's going to be a both and. I mean, because this is the 2023 first year that people are able to use something like chat GPT and all aspects of their educational experience. However, education now is changing in terms of its function in society and culture because you can just check CDT to do 90% of the work or more for you. And as you know, and as I know, the cleverness of people is such that they will find ways to use and incorporate these tools in very subtle ways. I remember you told a story about MSN messenger and ALL is the messenger and how you sort of had forced or adversarial interoperability. That is an example of the type of cleverness that humans will invent to get around what other types of censorship or kind of prohibitions that may be invented. I mean, prohibition itself was something that people found their way around. So in your view, how do we prepare people to be able to take advantage of these tools while not also usurping to use your word? Their own sense of self sovereignty. Yeah, I mean, I think we're doomed on that one, but the thing is, no, no, we're thank you for coming. Congratulations. More and more of the press. To computers. And that's just the way that things are going. You aren't going to you aren't going so self as already, I think, changed in all terribly. I think that this idea, the existentialist idea of, oh, you're a blank slate. You can reinvent yourself at any time. Well, no, you now got a huge digital paper trail mile long. Everybody knows what you've been. So in other words, identity is already been getting locked down in ways that it never was locked down before. So I think we are looking at a fundamental change of identity. I think we're looking at identity that's much more quantified. People are defining themselves as much more with labels, labels upon labels on labels. So. You can argue whether that's good or bad. I'm not a fan of it, but whatever it's here, my concern is more in terms of, I think, preventing sort of those viral harmful viral explosions in which there is a sudden shock or destabilization of the system that causes massive damage, akin to that of the 2008 financial crisis and high frequency. There's SVB. Is there an equivalent in the information system such that an SDB style information trauma would not have cascading the effects? Right. And I mean, you're seeing that happen with cryptocurrency because whatever we see in cryptocurrency is nothing compared to what we're going to see because getting more and more integrated into the global financial system. And if you look at FTX, you guys like, how did these people convince anyone that they were serious in retrospect? And part of that is because there's so much information that validating information and making sober assessments of, oh, is this a sane or not? Is this offshore crypto company? Say it or not, I suspect it was done because they had the right pedigree. And that was basically the shorthand. Well, they had all the labels. That would identify them as being credible or worthy of being believed or believable in the network or topology. And as a result, whereas a few decades ago, you wouldn't have just needed that. You would have also had to come into a room and shoes with people. Right. It wasn't necessarily. I mean, I'm not saying that that was perfect at all. Let the nepotism of a different source. But what we're seeing now is that you can actually do this remotely and it opens the door to people's BS detectors, not firing because they have been trained on these types of bacteria. Totally. Brian?

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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06:38 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Really? Yeah, he is. He was the current head of the U.S. DS and that was as of 2018. Oh, that's really interesting. I had no idea. Well, he was, he was really the point person on that thing and he did it. He did an amazing job. He was really, it was really the facts of it. He handled a lot of people getting very upset with him on a regular basis. I mean, to your point about Elon Musk, it is sort of like the kind of thing where now it's not just like walking in and out of the river and it's a different river. It's now actually finding kind of like the currents and writing those currents. And in such a way where you're kind of like a multipolar identity or personality such that there are many people, many actors in the system that are all kind of convening on you, as you said, like the figurehead that is drawing the ire of many different groups, both positive, negative, and whatever. And that balance seemed to be the thing that kind of keeps people, I don't know, in the public eye or something. Or another example was the GameStop stunt guy. Yeah. Exactly. Do you remember his name? He testified in front of a member's name. But it seemed very clear that he wasn't some mastermind. He happened to basically be in this right place at the right time, and he was a visible person talking about GameStop. But he in fact was representing a disparate group of people he wasn't some demagogue who was typing people. Look, he was one more YouTube stuff. And where has he gone? I don't know. You know, these people, they rise and I could be wrong, but I believe he's suing Reddit because they shut it down, right? Or something? They could be wrong yet. Listen, I do a daily news show, so I can't really talk about them. Yeah, three hours ago. Can I jump in real quick? And then Chris back to you, one of the other things that I think you get into is this idea that, you know, oh, what Facebook and Google need to do is just take all the misinformation and the bad stuff out. And then that'll fix everything. And especially as AI is coming, I'm curious, your thoughts on that to me sounds like absolutely the horses are out of the barn. Should we be thinking about not finding ways for average users or most users to not never see anything false or bad or whatever, but find a way to identify what they're seeing for what it is, XYZ, I'm sorry, I'm rambling. So go ahead and let me know your thoughts. Yeah, I mean, my sense is that even identifying it is tricky enough. And that because unless there's something that you can get 95% agreement on. And there's not a lot of that these days, then you're always going to have, then it's very difficult to locate. Where that authority should lie. It's in private companies. I don't think private companies even want that. It's nothing but a headache for them. If it's the government, well, they have tons of restrictions on exactly how they can adjudicate this themselves. The idea, the problem is that the myth of the section two 30 of the communication decency act is that is that there aren't any of these networks that are truly unfiltered anymore. Everybody's exerting some control. And you saw the Supreme Court hurt hearings earlier this year where it seemed like the justices were genuinely torn because they recognized that these weren't sort of just neutral carriers in the way that say a phone network was. But at the same time, they did seem to recognize, wait, how on earth are you going to are you going to make Google responsible for everything that's on their network? What the heck? They literally can't do it. So I think you're going to be confronting a lot of these problems legally because there's going to be basically total pressure not to accrue any liability to any company of a big size. They want to devolve responsibility onto individual users. But unfortunately, since individual users don't control the distribution of what they say, it becomes, it becomes a paradox. So that's why my suggestion is to say, look, you know, you're not going to, it's just going to be whack a mole, no matter what. If you want to address it, you're going to have to look at just things like basically slowing down viral spread of everything, not of specific types of content because identifying specific types of content in ways that a super majority of the population won't find objectionable or wrongheaded is not feasible. Now, there are exceptions. If there's some huge earthquake, that, okay, no one's going to just hopefully not too many people are going to dispute that. So the rawest of urgent news, you can still sort of prioritize in that way. But what you're describing is people have pejoratively called shadow banning, but you're not saying shadow banning for a specific thing. You're almost saying turning the temperature down on the virality of everything? Yeah, well, and I would say don't shout because well if you shut up and everyone that nobody shadow band. Right. So what I would say is, effectively, the louder something gets make it quieter, introduce some negative feedback. And break breakup homogeneous groupings. In other words, there's this assumption that people that you should give people what they want, and so all these algorithms are designed to give people things that stoke engagements, things that get what they want. That in itself is a lot more problematic than people seem to think because giving people what they want is not always the greatest idea. That was a way to sort of kick the can down the road. Well, we're not going to decide what you want. We're just going to give what you want.

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

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06:20 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Worked. And but it would still work very well for a while. But I think one thing that's important about this observation in this point about the dynamic between search and then webmasters and what became the industry of search engine optimization is the same thing if you imagine the bizarre thousands of years ago where being closest to the entryway is going to help you have a better business. So in a similar way, someone comes to the market, they're looking for grapes or wine, perhaps. If you're closer to the entryway than of course, you'll do more business. So what I'm teasing out though is that there is this dynamic in the feedback loops that we're starting with Google. Essentially, there was this back and forth that seemed to be happening where Google would do one thing. And there was a whole panda kind of search algorithm change that affected a bunch of people, et cetera. Webmasters learned how to design their pages to do keyword stuffing and all these things. Remember, Chris, I am an entrepreneur who has scars for you. You're on the battlefield of that era. But my point is, though, is that this is kind of evidence of those early mega nets like forming, where there was kind of a command and response, or market opportunity, where they were incentives. And then sent to cover that. And I cover that in the book exactly because that was when we see a foreign. And that was when I observed what I thought was if there was a single assumption shared false assumption, I think tech companies, programmers, product managers, all of us. We all underestimated the degree of influence that users collectively would have on the system. It just, it didn't, it wasn't a way we didn't think of it in those terms. They have a why would we? It didn't make sense historically. The idea of making something and the user is being passive recipients, but still there, even though, you know, we were now surviving on these industries were based on content provided by the users. And so I think and I don't think that people even began to have an inkling until the era of social media because at that point really starts to get out of control and you start to see actual side effects. I mean, we had all SEOs can be so annoying or whatever. But I think there's always a sense of like, whatever, we'll just there was no doubt about who was going to win. You know, the SEOs are annoying, but we're in charge. Well, as it turns out, turns out, yeah, the more, you know, the more of a voice people have and the faster the systems are working, the more you're giving up control. And I think that that is the main fallacy that we all had. Because I can't think of anyone that I knew who was talking about user influence collective user influence in that way. And as I said, I mean, I was wary of it. I didn't like I didn't like just the unpredictability of it, but I didn't, but at that time, I didn't see it as going so far in this direction. It occurs to me that again, to put it in historical context, we've been talking about putting software in a shrink wrap box and selling it on a shelf or whatever. But if you think of the 20th century and you create a product like a car, you sell that car to the end user to borrow that term. And that's kind of it with your relationship with them. I mean, you get feedback in terms of this model year, sold better than that model year or whatever. The fact to that in a digital economy, there is no sell it and it's done. And we were talking about iterating different versions and stuff like that. But also, that's part of the nature of selling a digital product is that you have all of this feedback so that it's almost like as the producer of the product you're overwhelmed by what you're learning about how it's used as well. Yeah, I mean, you become followers as much as leaders. And I think that I think this is true across the board. I think that if you look at, I think Elon Musk has maintained influence in part because he actually jumps on currents that are already in play. And that we see that names become figureheads. I mean, albeit very rich and powerful figureheads, but that someone can just become the voice and figurehead of what is actually a more decentralized or at least leaderless movement because you've got systems that are grouping similar people together who share similar interests for can then exert themselves in a coordinated way that wasn't possible before and this can happen organically without anyone like driving it because all you need to do is to say, okay, look, give people more of what they want and introduce them to other people who want the same things. And that by itself is enough to sort of start the ball rolling. You want another fun anecdote which you may or may not be aware, but when I had Matt cutts on the Internet history podcast, he said that one of the ways that they got intelligence from the SEOs is they would go to the SEO conferences and be very friendly and take them out for drinks or whatever. And he was like, after a few drinks, they would just tell you. Let me just tell you what they're doing. That's a great that's a great guy. I didn't know him well, but he had a fairly thankless job and had did it really, really well. Yeah. I don't know where he is. At least three or four years ago, yeah. Yeah, sorry. I think that player. Matt Matt.

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02:50 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Change that is about to become common in society in the world is one in which we have this new type of relationship, this emergent relationship that is a code modification between our sense of self and our sense of the machine that we're working with. And that from one moment to the next, I may be using my chat software or something, and then it may have updated. And we see this with auto updated software now. I am one of those strange holdouts that still wants to update all of my apps on my phone. But for most people, their apps and their app experience is very much like the web. You know, they go there one day and the feature is changing or the search index is updated. Something is different. Things have moved. Instagram is constantly moving things around, taking things a B testing, whatever. So even the fact of software is becoming one that is a lot more fungible. And a lot more changeable. And so it's a little bit of incoherence. Well, it's funny you bring this up in that this is true at Google back 20 years ago with search with ranking. I didn't work on ranking. Why? Because it was subject to exactly these sorts of feedback probabilistic mechanisms that made it very difficult. I wanted to build something that went from zero to a 100% accuracy. And the ranking people are miserable trying to get from 70% to 71%. They're having trouble just figuring out whether something's an improvement or not. Just so those issues were seen in miniature then. Google, I think, was very fortunate in that they hit a gold mine. They have the gold mine where they had this mechanism, this context in which people would tell them exactly what they were looking for so they could sell ads on exactly what they were looking for. I don't think there's been anything like that since then. I don't think Facebook found it. I don't no one else has found a gold mine now. Internet. It just they were just, they found it at the right time and they grabbed it. But even then, you know, how the relevancy of search results, I think, about like 70%. But that's okay. You don't need such results to be 70%. So the issue. And they were using machine learning like mechanisms. They were using Bayes nets and things like that. Those AI things were just not at the level that you see them now, and they weren't being used on analog data as you see them now. But those things were in play and you were seeing that loss of control. That also because the webmasters would then change around all of their stuff to try to gain the Android and Google will have to go back and change it again. So there was also the users in terms of the webmasters shaping, shaping how the ranking algorithms

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

Techmeme Ride Home

03:39 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"What are the things that I thought was pretty interesting was you wrote in 2015 when you're describing machine learning, which, given the timing, I thought was a pretty early and you wrote this for slate. You wrote in this sort of was describing the shift from somewhat like declarative deterministic programming where you build an app, you press some buttons, you press the copy button and it copies. And then you press paste in a paste. It's so beautiful. Yes. The world, which is somewhat more probabilistic. So you wrote the question then, is why would one want to generate opaque and unpredictable networks rather than writing strict effective programs oneself? And the answer as Pedro Domingo told you was that complete control over the details of the algorithm doesn't scale. And that there are three related aspects to machine learning that mitigate this problem. One, it uses probabilities rather than the true false binary. Now, of course, this sort of goes back to your book that was. Two, humans accept a loss of control and precision over the details of the algorithm and three, the algorithm is refined and modified to a feedback process. So why I think this is so relevant to revisit 7 years later is because we are now in the enthralling kind of era of scaled machine learning and artificial intelligence where everyone slowly but surely is going to realize that they are part of this feedback mechanism that as you say like this process of moving to a world of sort of probabilistic software is more like living in weather patterns. And what do we have? We have weather people that attempt to predict the weather and they could be right 50% of the time and keep their jobs in a similar way. We have these large scale AI systems that are we attempt to predict their outputs. We attempt to improve them through modeling predictions that get better over time. But we also have to improve their performance through reinforcement mechanisms, whether human or virtual. Yeah, I mean, at some point, you're going to need AIs to assess the performance of AIs. And well, you can see where you can see where the circular dependency originates. At some point, you're measuring your sticks with yardsticks and how are you going to find what the right yardstick is. And that's a real, it's a real issue. This is why I think all those debates about machine buys and things is the point of it because we're going to have trouble just determining whether something is by as you can say, how are you going to audit even at a black box level? How do you audit the performance? There are definitely ways to do it. In control scenarios, but if everything's changing so fast, it's going to be a real problem. I think to your commentary of never stepping into the same river twice, isn't the nature of reality and this is going to get metaphysical very quickly. So warning to the listeners. But if reality is constantly and always changing, one of the challenges with durable memory systems is that they attempt to record a steady state of reality in a certain moment of time and persist it eternally. But everything is changing constantly. And so you need to have a system that ended up itself, has the ability to constantly be kind of updating its model, adjusting its model. I mean, even the use of the word bias, like an entire neural network is based on a set of biases in the system. Exactly. An interpretation of reality. Exactly. So I guess where this leads me to. The

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

Techmeme Ride Home

06:55 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"You know what? I'm not until after not until it was way too late. I remember by Wilson, yes, yes. I literally did not run across this book until. So in some ways, I don't mean to tease this out, I don't know. To make it too big of a thing. But what I'm finding interesting is sort of like the return of some ideas and some concepts that have been around the computing work for the world for a while. The fact, so I was wrong, as I said, Brian, about when Bill Gates published a book. It was 95, about 99, 99 is when I graduated high school. But Meghan had the first version, well, not the first version, but the desert book was published in 97, and the subtitle of that book was the global communications network that will collect everyone on earth, and it was about mobile phones and mobile phone penetration. So I find this to be very interesting, right? Because now, 20 some odd years later, you sort of coming back and in some ways revisiting and building on the observation of what was happening then. We just connected people through cell phones. I should have called it gig in that. Yeah, yeah. Well, perhaps perhaps it'll be the sequel. Yeah, well, you know, if Bill Gates can rewrite part of his book, the next edition, you know, when you have the paperback version, you're going to be the gig in it. In any case, I think what you're talking about broadly speaking with this concept of your magnet is the idea of the feedback loops getting faster and faster. And your transition from Microsoft from a model of boxed software where you are literally pressing CDs, shipping them out, and every year you have a release cycle. This is how Adobe built its business. This is why figma had the advantage. Adobe was still very much predicated on having releases, whereas when you go to Google, now you're in a world where the code is being updated, you know, hundreds of times a day where release management is a whole new discipline in terms of hating. Beyond that, because the algorithm, their model update, new code is being rolled out at discrete but very quick intervals. But moreover, it's not all the weight of the algorithms are changing in response to using feedback. So you literally, it's hair applied as you can't walk in the same river twice. And that was fundamentally wasn't true 25 years ago, but it's true now that there's no easy guarantee that you're going to get the same output twice in a row. And that I think people underestimate what a profound thing that is to say that because what we think of so much of what we think of as how do we control and test algorithms, it starts with the assumption of being able to push a reset button that we can start with known identical conditions and test and sort of an isolated like white box environment. And you can't do that's becoming more and more impossible. And I, from my perspective, that is as big a part of how we've lost controls anything else that there's no reset button that you're just dealing with dealing with this ongoing ongoing evolving systems whose value lies not in their algorithms per se, whether they're contribute to it, but in their ongoing state. If you were to shut down Facebook and restart it from scratch, you've just thrown away most of the value that Facebook has. And I think the rise of deep learning machine learning, whatever is an analogy and an extension of that because here you have these systems that the algorithms are brilliant, but you have to train them. What are you training them on your training on the massive amount of data that we're now producing that we didn't produce even 20 years ago, but one of my favorite statistics is that we now produce more data every day than was produced in the entire history of humanity before the year 2000. So one of the things that ties exactly into the question, the thesis of the book being in broad terms that people think, oh, you know, these companies have control over their algorithms, or even their fundamental businesses, but even in reality they don't, they're just kind of riding a dragon that maybe they don't have control over. So my fundamental question is, is that the nature of the business that they're in, or is that a business model decision? Do you know what I mean? Is the scale so large that no one would ever reasonably be expected to have their hand on the tiller or are they deciding for whatever reason may be monetarily whatever to not have more control? I mean, primarily the former. Now, it's not to say that you can't do things, I get into this that you can do things to try to arrest the degree of the loss of control. Like when Facebook banned all political advertising in the run up to the 2020 election. Well, that's actually you aren't going to eliminate misinformation on the case by case basis, but did that, that sort of like broad, fairly content neutral, coarse grained intervention. That actually can do something. So if you want to look at it from the perspective of, okay, could Facebook mitigate sheer chaos? Yes, there are options. However, there is nonetheless a degree of fine grain control that you're just never going to get period simply because the size that the size speed and feedback system is just too bad. Too fast. Sorry. If you want to go in and literally scan every piece of content that's going through Facebook or Twitter and eliminate the bad stuff for whatever definition of the bad stuff you want, that's not possible. It's not when people are saying stop getting people to be so mean on the Internet. No, that's not possible. Now, the companies haven't exactly been upfront in admitting to that. Because I think they actually would rather be thought of as greedy than as out of control. But I mean, there's stuff they let through that is they don't make any appreciable money off of and that's just vile. And that's a loss of control. That's not great. So they could be more honest. And I mean, you could also say, okay, well, why don't we just shut everything down? I suppose a company could do that. That

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

Techmeme Ride Home

06:07 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"By the user for the release of any personal information and it talks about how this starts with the fundamental assumption that the user owns and controls their personal information, they're only the user decide with whom they share their information and under what terms. Now, it's so mind-blowing to me to sort of go back and to think about some of these core concepts that were in flight back then. And the thing about obviously where we come and how Zuckerberg and Bill Gates are kind of buddies and there's a mentoring relationship and to see how these core ideas and platforms for establish back then. I mean, the entire idea of identity was there. And it was kids that people are going to have these correlating identities online and whoever's in charge of adjudicating them and handing them out stands to make a tremendous amount of money as port was. Google was up front about trying to do it with us. Identity service. And I write in my book mega nets, I talk about how that sort of online identity is happening. It's coalescing. You can see it in India right now with the government ad horror program. As the amount of information we have online multiplies, the wish to coalesce such things does grow. But is it going to be Microsoft or Google adjudicating it? Who is it going to be adjudicating it? I don't know, but there is going to be that drive towards coalescing. And that does pose certain risks, I think. So yeah, I mean, when I made the jump from Microsoft to Google, it was like stepping into another world because there was nothing was being shipped in a box. This was a truly Internet service and it was on a scale that Microsoft, yeah, the Microsoft hadn't come to terms with. I was like, oh, okay, these people really know how to run servers and build out server infrastructure in a far more advanced way. Well beyond anything. And Microsoft had to play catch up with at this point, they seem to have done so. But it took them quite a while, but making that jump. It was like, oh, okay. We're stepping from this sort of unidirectional world where you give software to people, and what they do with it, well, there's bug reports and all, but in effect, they're passive recipients. And well, and that gradually broke down, you know, that Google. At first it was pretty much web content publishers that had the most influence. If they're input is actually feeding into how the creation of whatever it is that Google is doing. But it wasn't until you get to the social media age that you start getting that feedback loop to get tighter and tighter and higher to in effect you get this basically power is devolving onto the users and programmers and corporations and governments don't have the same level of control that they used to because this information is flying around and conditioning and tweaking the parameters of all these algorithms, not just AI, AI, I think it's the most extreme version of this. But what I saw was increasing influence that we all collectively had while none of us individually having a decisive say over it. And that's in the book, that sort of system is what I call a mega net, which is one in which there's a feedback loop between the users and the systems such that even the such that there's no coordinated human. Organization that can keep up with what uncoordinated human activity is doing. And you don't need AI for it to get out of control in that way. I can exacerbate it because now you're putting it through a machine learning network that is very opaque in its working. But you have simple recommendation algorithms or much simpler, much simpler mechanisms of any sort. You're still going to get to this point that you can't exert any fine grained control over how the recommendation algorithms feed algorithms, you name it, are being shaped. Let me, I want to come to the thesis of Megan's. But I can't resist pulling this anecdote in because we mentioned it, and it's my favorite anecdote from, oh, a book that I wrote, but Bill Gates agreed to write the road ahead. It came out in November 1995, and the index of the hardcover edition had 68 references to the term information highway. And 46 references to the term Internet and four references to the World Wide Web about a year later in the paperback version, the Internet suddenly took a 169 references and the web suddenly had 59 mentioned. So from the paperback to the hardcover, he tried to act like he had the vision all along, which is, you know, if we all have good out of there. If we all have the chance to revise ourselves between the hardcover of the paperback, we'd look like geniuses. Okay. So the thesis. That's really funny. I was actually not aware of that. It is one of my favorite anecdotes. When I was writing this book, I was very concerned with future proofing and future proofing it as best as I could. So we got into the debates of, oh, you need to talk about the metaverse. So every time, every time I mention the metaverse, I put in a little sort of caveat of or whatever it is that these things are being called. Sorry. And this is sort of relevant. Are you familiar with another book called mega net?

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

Techmeme Ride Home

06:10 min | Last month

"david auerbach" Discussed on Techmeme Ride Home

"Welcome everybody to the tech name ride home experience today is Wednesday, April 5th. We are joined by David auerbach. David our back is an author. He's a technologist. He's worked at Microsoft back in the day on MSN messenger. He's worked at Google. Back on the web crawler. So we wanted to talk to David because personally, I was in Greece in Athens recently. And I was giving a talk for The Economist. Kind of about how do I really think about this current moment that we're in with regards to artificial intelligence and society and social media and all of these things. And I actually listened to an interview with a friend of mine, Daniel newnham. With David. And a lot of the things that he was talking about related to his new book, mega nets, being really pertinent. To our audience to our interest to what we've been talking about. And so we invited David on to come give us talk, or I guess to talk with us about some of these topics. And so with that, I guess, welcome to the show, David. Thanks for having me, Chris. And Brian. Yes, welcome. Welcome. Chris, since I am not as familiar with David's work as you are, because I didn't listen to that episode. You did not do your homework. I know. Because I already know what I want to get into with him, but started in the direction you want to go and I'll follow. Yeah, you know, I think the thing that's going to be most useful to understand because I felt a lot of resident when I was listening to David kind of like they'll tell the story and then also thinking about my own journey. With social media and technology. And so I kind of wanted to understand a little bit more just from the earlier days of your experience what working on MSN messenger, which is one of the early chat applications. One of the first maybe examples of a social product or social application. And then going to work, of course, at Google. It's hypergrowth era in period. And what that meant to you in terms of one thing that I kind of want to understand. And I think this is true for both of us. It's like there wasn't necessarily a master plan to get to where we are now. And as a result, there was a lot of improv. And now looking back, we can go like, oh man, maybe we should have known differently. But I'm curious about your experience, especially starting out with Microsoft. Yeah, building social products there. Oh, there was no master plan. Well, I mean, or at least any master plan that came up never came to fruition. Microsoft had many master plans back then. And most of them, I worked on a product that was code named hailstorm. Some people might remember it. Oh, Microsoft field. Yeah, wasn't that really bad? It was never really anything. It never it was actually, I think the Microsoft developers conference, they announced it, but I don't think it ever came to fruition. 'cause that's a better answer than him saying, that was my baby. That's the dream I've been trying to return to for 20 years. I mean, you know, the idea, I mean, like with a lot of these things, the idea wasn't necessarily terrible, but I don't think Microsoft was in the right mindset to build something like they were still effectively client focused. That was what that was what had happened in the 90s that they decided that they would bring the Internet to windows instead of vice versa. And I was working on the instant messenger client. And that was one of the, that was one of their successes in the Internet realm, but a lot of it was that their user base came from hotmail, which they purchased. And so it wasn't indicative of the longer term strategy. So in effect, Microsoft was still operating as a boxed software company at that point that there were companies that weren't, but Microsoft still had this idea of that in some ways everything was going to be based around shipping CDs of this or that, even if the Internet was an episode about Bill Gates famous like the road ahead. Where he was talking about the future of the Internet. I mean, that was just like hyperbole in the marketing stick. I mean, I mean, I think that let me see, when did that come out? One of the road ahead come out. Because I feel like no. Because at that time, I think the goal was still that Windows would be the heart of it that yes, of course. Everything would be networked, but it would still be windows connecting you to everything. Ironically, I mean, you can see a little of that happening now with and with Android. And the fact that Android and iOS effectively are the bases for that we're moving away from a content neutral browser and towards apps and locking down. Okay, so I looked up hailstorm and hailstorm was announced in 2001. 2001. That sounds awesome. Yeah, it was right after September 11th, that's right. Yes. So this is also go ahead. Hold on. And so what's interesting about hailstorm was this is a .NET framework, which is, again, sort of the Microsoft way of building applications. And it was described as a new breed of platform, consisting of a set of XML based web services and an underlying services architecture. So 2001, how we should talk about things. But then it goes on to talk about, oh, God, what is it? Okay. Hailstorm employs the passport user authentication system. So identity was even big back then. Oh God, what was the old identity format that? Oh, SAML family. Anyways, to secure it and individuals identity and information, both passport and the hailstorm services require affirmative consent and explicit opt in by the user for the release of any personal information and it talks about how this starts with the fundamental assumption that the user owns and controls their personal information, they're only

"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:10 min | 4 months ago

"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Whoever. Take your favorite company. And I try to boil it down before bullet points. What do you want a good company to do? Well, at the end of the day, it's very simple. You want them to grow revenues, grow profits, grow dividends, and grow guidance. And that's pretty much what you have been seeing from the residential REITs across the board over the past year, two years coming out of COVID. And so from the fundamental perspective, the bottom line is these guys are in a pretty solid position right now. Let's just quickly touch on malls for a second because I thought it was such a cool conversation that we had. In an extended version of tweezer, it wasn't. It wasn't really tweezer. What is up with that business? Like, can it ever come back? What do they need to do? And what do you think about it? Or cap rates in the mall sector have been going backwards down the number line to throw another reference at you. And when we look at some of the high quality properties versus you and I spend a lot of time talking about American Dream. And in fact, Bloomberg opinion ran a great piece yesterday talking about how mall landlords are spending huge dollars to offer these experiential type experiences and indoor ski malls and retail locations and example. And the question is, if you build it, will they come? And at the end of the day, look, there is no place like the mall. I have fond memories of going to the arcade, going to misses fields, cookies, and that was where we spent our weekends. And I know it's a different generation but the mall guys are trying to reach out towards that next generation, whether it's through eSports venues. I do see the mall isn't going away. I think we're going to see an evolution of the mall space. I'm looking forward to it. Good stuff. I hope they put in pickleball. Pickleball, your big pickleball fan. Oh, yeah. All in. Whatever the latest fed is. David auerbach managing director armada ETFs giving us his thoughts on the residential real estate market in there, residential REIT income ETF house. HA U.S. house, so we'll see how that goes, but mortgage rates at 6% makes it tough for some buyers. Right now, let's head down to Washington

Bloomberg David auerbach U.S. Washington
"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:57 min | 4 months ago

"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"All right, John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate it. You know, one of the things we do. We always appreciate John, we really appreciate it. We really do. I mean, we're not just saying. Sometimes I feel like John doesn't get to love. That he deserves. You know? Maybe we should find him. A cake, a cake. Yeah, yeah. Okay. My birthday's in June. Birthdays. All right, we'll wait till June, then no, no need to run. We'll bring it. We'll bring it down the shore. Absolutely bring it down to shore. Looking at some companies here, Matt one of the ones that got my attention is DH Horton, one of the biggest U.S. home builders, they beat estimates, and they saw demand pick up a little bit in January. So maybe the market kind of coming back here. The stock's up about 2% today. It's up 9% year to date, so very interesting here about the housing market. Interest rates hire mortgage rates higher, of course, pulling a lot of people out of the market, but maybe the market is starting to stabilize a little bit on the housing front there. Well, you know what? We're going to get an expert opinion on that right now. Are we? No. I have a buddy David auerbach. He's managing director at armada ETF advisers and also a fellow fish fan. Oh, we actually went to see the New Year's Eve shows together. One of them. Yep, at Madison Square. How was it? It was amazing. I have to say it was fantastic. But the funny thing is, so we're sitting there and we had a sweet couple of seats. Nice. Of course. Great view, the light show was insane. And in the second set, we get into this deep Spacey discussion about mall REITs. And I thought, you know what, in this entire stadium and no one MSG, nobody else is talking about Molly. Thanks right now. Let's bring in David on the phone joining us at a Texas. Great to have you on the program, David. Let's start by talking about the situation that the real estate industry or the residential real estate industry finds itself in right now. We'll get to the malls later. But you run house. Which is an ETF and actively managed ETF that invests in publicly traded REITs. Talk to me about the state of your industry. Well, good morning. Thanks for having me back on the air and of course I'd rather talk about our fun experience, but right now in the world of publicly traded REITs, you know, we see really a lot of upside. As you know, after the volatile 2022 results, a lot of the REITs are coming out basically forecasting, we're not going to have as great of a year NOI growth and really crush it like we did last year because last year was almost unprecedented for some of the residential REITs. But these guys are still forecasting growth. And in the wake of rising interest rates and rising inflation, we're focused on that end rental payment. We call it the residential REIT income ETF because we say that the rent payment goes into your pocket as income in the form of dividends and pretty much across the board. These residential REITs have been raising their dividends over the past couple of years. Through COVID. That's great for Paul. Paul, how good is you love dividends? I loved him. And to love coupon payments, that's good stuff. So has the residential real estate market. I mean, is it still adjusting to this higher mortgage rate environment? Has it steady? What are we seeing here? Yeah, it's definitely adjusting. There's no question about it. Some of the home sales numbers that have been coming out recently though they're somewhat kind of dated results are showing somewhat of a turnaround compared to what we have seen in the mid second half of the year last year. I hate to use the term and everybody kicks around that new normal. Look, interest that interest rates have gone from zero to four and a half percent mortgage rates went from like two to 6, three to 6% last year. We're in this 6% mortgage range right now. And so I think people are accepting it. The problem is that, hey, I got this great job opportunity from Dallas, Texas to New York. And I'm trading my two 7 5 mortgage for 6 and change mortgage in New York. I'm basically locked in. I'm kind of geographically constrained at that point. And so from the rental payment from the rental side, you know, unless you're in the market to go out and buy that house right now, you're really focused on what's my end rent payment going to be next month. Is it going up 10%? Or is it going up a 100%? Well, I mean, so many people who haven't been able to buy have been put in that position. In terms of the investment though, David, for those listening who don't quite get the ETF functionality, how does that work? When you get paid dividends by the public reads you invest in, how does say Paul buys a share of house? How does that come through to him? It's a great question. It basically is passed through directly to the end shareholder. We pay a quarterly dividend and it's basically a culmination of the income received from our underlying constituents. Our fund owns 25 publicly traded REITs. Those are comprised of apartment REITs, single-family rental REITs, manufactured housing, senior housing. All of these companies are reporting monthly and quarterly dividends that adds up and that's basically it then goes into your pocket at the end of the day as a shareholder in the form of a dividend. So it's just like any other stock. So if Paul calls his guy a pain Webber or wherever. And he says, turn around for a while. And says you just reinvest those dividends, or they just cut them a check every quarter. That's right. Right. And Paul striking probably more of who they want Robinhood type of guy who is more ahead of the curve there. But yes, that is correct. Again, ETFs are publicly traded vehicles. They trade just like stock, bid ask spreads, trade throwing market hours. We've highlighted that liquidity. Matt, you and I talked about the private versus public and what we've been seeing in some of the private REITs that's out there talking about gaining redemptions, investors having a hard time pulling their money out. They're never going to be able to get out of this maze of trying to capture their investment. And so for us, we're highlighting the liquidity of publicly traded REITs and ETFs. You want to put a $1 million into House thank you very much. You can pull out a $1 million of house very quickly just as well versus you may have a harder time at some of these private vehicles right now. So David, you talked about mortgage rates up that 6% range. Is the expectation that a lot of folks are saying the fed's going to be cutting rates at the end of this year or early next year. So are the mortgage folks you talk to saying, hey, the mortgage rates will come back down along with the fed? Yes, the answer is yes. Mortgage rates highly traditionally do tend to move hand in hand with interest rates. If we do see that correction coming back in later in the back half of the year, yes, I would expect to see that. However, at the end of the day though, until we really see the mortgage rates go back from, let's say, 6% to a more manageable level of 4%. I still think we're going to see some pop determinists in the housing market. What does this, what are these big changes? And I mean, I don't know, when's the last time the fed raised 450 basis points in a year. What do they do to ETFs and net asset values? I mean, they're bigger and bigger divergences, right? How do those fix themselves? Well, for us, again, we're looking for us at the residential REITs and focusing on the underlying constituents themselves. I will highlight that many of these REITs took advantage during COVID to recapitalize their balance sheets and were able to lock in very long-term debt at a very attractive rates. So unfortunately, I can't control as I tell people, I can't control my ETF stock price. I can't control my constituents stock price. All I can focus is on the narrative, highlighting how well capitalized these companies are. And I focus on the fundamentals. And usually at the end of the day, Mattis, we talked about, I take your favorite Wall Street stock, REITs, Apple, Microsoft

DH Horton David auerbach armada ETF mall REITs Paul John Tucker David John Madison Square Spacey Matt Texas Molly
"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:12 min | 4 months ago

"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Interactive broker studio in New York City to our worldwide audience coming up. We're going to check in with Ira Jersey Bloomberg intelligence. Get his thoughts on what his Federal Reserve is going to do next. I'm going to talk about ETF flows. David auerbach managing director armada ETF advisers get the latest on ETFs. And again, I want to hit this story that's up Morgan Stanley investment management. That's the asset management arm of Morgan Stanley. They're saying emerging markets are set to be this decades winners. And I've heard that from others as well. So we'll break that down as well. But first, let's go to John Tucker and get a Bloomberg business flash jump. We're always stated dependent, so let's stretch off with some data. You did a spot PMIs with Lisa, a little earlier, Paul, the fed, Richmond fed manufacturing index coming in lower than expected down 11 the Richmond fed business conditions index. That's a little better than we had last month. Last month it was down 14 right now down ten. Ily S&P 500, you have ten of the 11 major industry groups lower right now. A loan sector in the green that belongs to consumer discretionary stocks, that's where you find shares of Tesla up over one and a half percent. Stocks are lower as we wait the latest batch of earnings. We're going to get tech heavyweight Microsoft that comes after the close of regular trading today. Drew Mattis had met lives as the data we've seen so far clearly indicates a slowing economy or even worse. Maybe the debate shouldn't be, are we going to have a recession, maybe we actually should be having a debate? Are we in a recession and something is holding up the labor market? And how long can that something hold the labor market up for? Right now, the broader index the S&P 500 twenty two points lower that's down about 6 tenths of a percent. Just under 4039 97, the tech heavy NASDAQ 156 points lower. That's down half a percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average down 165 points, that is down to half a percent. Ten year yield right now is off to basis points at the latest batch of data right now at three 53 the two year is up one basis point at four 24. We check the markets all day long for you right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker, that's your Bloomberg business flash. Matt and Paul. John Tucker, thank you so much for that. We

Ira Jersey Bloomberg intellige David auerbach armada ETF Morgan Stanley investment mana Federal Reserve John Tucker Richmond Morgan Stanley Drew Mattis New York City Lisa Tesla Paul Microsoft Bloomberg Matt
"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:14 min | 11 months ago

"david auerbach" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You very much with the Bloomberg business flash out of San Francisco. Now, as we've been focused on today, more high well, high is an understatement. More massive inflation prints with the PPI coming out at 11.3. Yesterday we had the CPI out at 9.1. Let's talk with someone who can maybe offer you a solution in terms of the right hedge. David auerbach joins us right now managing director from armada ETF advisers and the cool thing is David with you and my co anchor pretty good. I can say, it's great to have you all here. Yeah. Definitely is. David got his BA at Texas. Did he? And his MBA at SMU. Well, the only reason he's telling me that is because for your information, David and for our entire audience, is my brother actually went to SMU. I grew up near SME. I'm a Dallas Dallas gal. I spent a few years hitting the bars around SMU. That's the same thing as getting my favorite places highland park, one of my favorite places to hang out. Let's get back to, well, actually it's really a real estate and partly residential story that you have for us, David, right? Because you think this is a great way to hedge against inflation. Absolutely. And thanks so much for having me. Really appreciate it and love the Dallas ties that's so cool. We take a very unique approach at armada. When we launched the home appreciation U.S. 3D TF in March, we had this view that we're building our fund on two fund principles. Number one, where people relocating across the country and then which of the residential REIT segments are benefiting from that relocation. From where we sit, we know that real estate is personal. If there's one thing that the three of us all have in common is that we're very fortunate enough to go to sleep with a roof over our head. Whether we lived in an apartment, we rent a house where we live is home. And that home is the most important investment decision that you make every single day. And as you mentioned about inflation, well, we know that interest rates are going up 75 basis points lock it in for sure, most likely a hundred at this rate, but what that means is that cost of that mortgage now gets more expensive. You have to come more to the table with the down payment. And so that's going to affect many first time home buyers and those that are probably in the market right now trying to buy that house. And for so many people, it's just been impossible, right? I mean, not only were they priced out of the market when mortgage rates were cheap. Now they have no chance of getting in. I know a lot of people just anecdotally who can't buy a house and I know people who can't sell a house because the buyers just can't afford it now, is that going to change? You know, I would say in the back half of the year, we would see some moderation, but frankly, I also think part of the place into that whole number one rule of real estate location location location. If you go talk to folks that are in Nashville or Charlotte or in Austin, they may have a different perspective right now, my neighbor across the street sold his house within a week here in Dallas and almost got full offer on his property. And so I think there are pockets that you're still seeing massive, massive strength, but the bigger problem here is that we all know there is a massive supply demand in balance in the housing markets. There's just not enough housing inventory to satisfy the amount of demand that's out there. David, is that going to change? I want to bring up another Texan that we're going to have on a little bit later on the show. Danielle dimartino booth. Whom you may know, she advised the fed and wrote a book called fed up. She advised the Dallas fed. She has said it's possible that we have a glut next year of housing and cars because so many people are trying to fill this void. What do you think about that possibility? You know, I don't know about that glutton necessarily. Again, the part of the problem is that air quitting is that affordable housing product that starter house doesn't exist anymore for those first time home buyers. But instead, you're seeing this plethora of single-family rental platforms from like invitation homes, American homes for rent. There is a tricon. There's a lot of single-family rental properties that are out there. One other point, employment growth is driving household formation. We know that the employment market is still strong with a three handle on the unemployment rate as a result, again, with inflation going up, gas prices are up and if you're an apartment landlord, you're still knocking on your tenants door on the first of the month saying, where's my rent? Many of these apartment companies as an example are reporting double digit year over year NOI growth rental growth, strong quarterly sequential growth. We're going into the summer prime leasing season for these apartment guys that are 97, 98, 99% occupied. And so again, it plays back into that thesis of where you live is that most important investment decision that you make for yourself for your family and for your kids. David, we got about a minute here. This is a trend that's not going away anytime soon. Do you foresee any sort of pop of the housing bubble anytime in our near future? If there is going to be, I think, a lot that's going to be dictated on future increases of the interest rates. We know obviously this next one is there going to be more down the road this year because that will play into the home price appreciation and the moderation of the housing market going forward. But again, with us focused on house, our ETF here, we're just trying to take it on a quarter by quarter basis, taking the news that's coming at us from the government Fannie Mae Redfin, Zillow, Bloomberg, all the sources that are kind of telling us where the housing market is headed. And right now, I will tell you from where we sit, we really don't see that letting up until maybe like I said back half of this year maybe into next year. All right, David, thanks so much for joining us, great having you all on this morning. David auerbach managing director at armada ETF advisers talking to us about possible inflation hedges. He would suggest one, which is their home appreciation, U.S. REIT, the ticker is house. Spelled in German, HA U.S. and you can

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