2 Burst results for "Dave Costan"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dave costan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Count down to the close, Bloomberg's comprehensive cross platform coverage ahead of the U.S. market close, starts right now. This is the countdown to the close about 60 minutes up to go here in the trading session. Romain Boston, Katie, joined right now by our colleagues, Carol master and Steve. Welcome to our audiences. What's going on? I'm sorry. Were you good? Carol, I mean, look, I mean, I haven't been here either, but I take after curl. I miss you. And I said if Carol can get away with it, surely I can go. It's not a bad, it's not a bad schedule. Four days a week. We should all try to get used to it. I'll have to recharge. So important. Interesting day here, I mean, I came back here, of course we know the fed started their meeting. A lot of people, I guess, are a pretty excited in the markets right now that they think they know exactly what the fed's going to do and more importantly what the fed maybe won't do, which is to continue hiking rates. Yeah, good luck with that thinking. All right, having said that, let's find some outperformance as I like to do. Huh? What? What? Okay, well, we missed you too. Home builders. Definitely some outperformance there of that index. If you look at the S&P composite, home building index, it's up about 4.3%. And that is thanks to some earnings from both nvr and pulte, both fourth quarter earnings beat. Check out nvr up about 4.7% policies up almost 8.7% total. They report later in February, they're up about four and a half percent. This index of this group overall, it's up more than 40% since late October 10. All right, we are in the midst of earnings season. It's not just the fed that is happening today and tomorrow. So I'm going to take a look at a handful of companies that reported earlier today. General Motors shares surging up by 7.74%. They beat on the top line, the bottom line, and it's forecast for adjusted earnings before interest and taxes came in above analyst estimates. Oh, and that price war between Ford and Tesla, they're not worried about it. UPS shares higher by 4.5% right now. The fourth quarter revenue, miss forecast though, U.S. package, sales rose, the company to give a full year outlook that largely Matt analyst estimates. McDonald's shares down by 1.6% after its operating margin for the first quarter missed the consensus estimate. The forecast for the measure also trailed. All right, we talk about the broader markets here on this January 31st last trading day, of course, of the month of great start to the year, and it looks like today is going to be a great end to the month. The S&P 500 up about a percent here, the NASDAQ up more than a percent as well. The Russell 2000 up about 2% and Dow transports absolutely on fire. Here on the day, all of the major indices now a posting pretty solid gains on a monthly basis with the NASDAQ, probably the most relevant outperformer of 10% in the month of January. And it is unbelievable, but you know what else is unbelievable. You have ten of 11 sectors higher right now, a real risk on vibe. You can see consumer discretionary is up at the top up by 2%. A lot of that is the automakers to mention those earnings that we got out of GM. That is helping boost the group as a whole. We also have materials, real estate getting in on the action as well. And you look at what is not doing too well. It's utilities. That's the laggard, but just barely. It's only down about a tenth of a percent romaine. All right, a tenth of a percent, we talk about some of the individual movers here are going to get some earnings after the bell. Keep an eye of course on a and D and snap, obviously, two completely different companies. But both could offer some interesting commentary here on where we stand in the broader economic sphere, whether it's shipped to man, whether it's advertising in the case of snap. But we also got a couple of earnings this morning that also showed a bit of divergence as well. Caterpillar shares down about 4% here on the day. This is largely because of higher costs, the caterpillars having to take on to make its machines and softer demand in China, one of its most important markets. Meanwhile, you have International Paper moving the opposite direction up 10% year on the day providing what I think is really the headline of the day. Cardboard box comeback points to early signs of consumer revival. You take a look at the humble cardboard box. I know you all sort of overlook it. It's a great indicator. My father, my father, the whole business. So carboxy and paper bags, and you know, probably the two most boring businesses out there, but everybody needs them. International Paper benefiting from that need right now. All right, that brings us back to the fed guys. Of course, that meeting started today. The big decision tomorrow, they're clicking closely, of course, at inflation and the direction that it's going. The latest data point that we get shows that's going in the right direction, the employment cost index guys, moderating below expectations. That's a good sign. It shows things, maybe, are rewriting, at least over the last few months. A lot of indicators for the fed to play with, you've got cardboard, boxes, you've got wage inflation, and you also have margin pressure. This is something our Gina Martin Adams has talked a lot about as we go through those corporate earnings, whether or not these companies are able to manage costs while we've seen layoffs by many companies as well. Well, another person who's watching profit margins is Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, Dave costan. He weighed in with our Bloomberg team earlier today. Check it out. We're still looking at a number of months of headwinds in terms of profits. And one of the reasons for that is that the margins are declining. And so therefore, the best that you get is flat earnings year over year for 2023, compared with 2022. And that is Dave costing over at Goldman Sachs, chief U.S. equity strategist, and he says because of the concern over declining U.S. profit margins, he likes European and Asian stocks better. He thinks that's a better buy Tim for investors. I think it also just adds the conversation that we've been having over the last few days about the rally that we've seen this month. And to what extent, this is kind of the opposite of what the fed wants to see romaine. We spoke with Steve skanky over at keel point, former treasury official. And he was saying that if you're the Federal Reserve and you're seeing the S&P 500, what, 6% so far this month. That's not what you want to see if you're Jay Powell. Well, that's not what you want to see. I have frankly, I think he's lost that battle. I mean, I know we talk a lot about this idea of not fighting the fed. But it's very clear what the market's expectations are. And it's also very clear that the market isn't sort of making these bets based on what they're hearing out of the fed or what they think that that is going to do specifically. They're looking at the first order effect, which is what the economic data is showing them. And I think it has been pretty clear whether you buy the idea that the fed will pause. I don't think you can not push back on the idea that the trend has been moving in the direction that the fed wants it to say. Well, that all guess it's just two 30 p.m. tomorrow and what kind of Jerome Powell we're going to get, whether he does push back against the easing that we've seen in financial conditions. And even if he does, does the market listen at that point or do they consider continue to say inflation is easing? How does he take into account to some of the big macro things? How does he take into account the bounce back in stocks? What's going on with very easy financial market conditions? And how does he take into the Bloomberg big take today in terms of the impact of China reopening? And their demand and how that plays into the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dave costan" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Learn more. Well, as Doug mentioned, we've got markets and Japan and Korea now training for a look at what's going on is Brian Curtis. Paul, the cash in the futures market, so suggests a little give back today after the torrid rally that we saw yesterday, the Hangzhou index, for instance, was up 5.2% in that latest session. Futures now down about a third of 1% and in the cash markets that you referenced there. The nikkei is down 6 tenths of 1%. The ASX in Sydney down about four tenths of a percent and the cost has also up and down four tenths of 1%. If we look at the performance on Wall Street, it was a little bit of an uneven picture. We came back off of the worst levels of the day for the S&P 500 to finish flat to slightly lower. We had yields that were slightly higher and the dollar was down a little, so that suggested a little bit of an inconsistent message. However, maybe the real message is just as we put in our headlines caution ahead of the speech by the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, on Wednesday. We had this line from Dave costan at Goldman Sachs that corporate America's margins are likely to start coming down in 2023 as certain expenses start to normalize. And also U.S. consumer confidence fell in November to a four month low, although still at a very high number the conference board's index at 100.2 and that was down a little bit from the one O 2.2, but still in fairly confident tone. Dug over to you. Yeah, maybe a little bit of reluctance in front of that speech tomorrow from fed chair Jay Powell, he'll be speaking at an event hosted by the brookings institution in Washington D.C.. Our Michael McKee has a preview. When the fed chairman speaks, he usually moves markets, probably not this time, though. Investors have firmly priced in a half percentage point increase in the fed's target rate, and none of the fed speakers in recent weeks has taken issue with that. What J Powell may want to do is set some guidelines for the new fed guidance on rates, coming December 14th. There is general agreement among policymakers, the ultimate level of the target rate will be higher than their last forecast of 4.6%. Markets now see it at 5%. Powell could offer guidance on whether that's about right. And about how long it would take, the fed to get there, like McKee, Bloomberg, daybreak, Asia. China's official PMIs will likely show manufacturing and services weakening in November. We've got more from Bloomberg's Yvonne Mann. Bloomberg economics forecast the official manufacturing PMI will drop from 49.2 to 49 in November, early indicators show daily steel output and oil refinery run rates down from October. This comes as a global slowdown is pressuring production, the official non manufacturing PMI is also excited to decline from 48.7 to 48.4. Their service sector was likely impacted by curves put in place to contain COVID flare ups last month and point the other direction, the construction PMI is likely to stay well above 50 strongly in expansion. A continued drop in steel rebar inventory suggests robust activity and will get PMI data at 9 30 a.m. Beijing time. I'm Yvonne man, Bloomberg deeper, Asia. 5 minutes after the hours, we update global news