18 Burst results for "Danielle Dimartino"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com. It is always good, folks, to speak, to Cameron Christ. He is what we call a global macro strategist. He has a new title Paul. He's chief of ambiguity. Okay, here at nailed it. Bloomberg and our ambiguity officer shows up with us. I've never seen this. I just ran by Chanel basic our chief financial correspondent in the halls. Okay, excuse me. Up in the food court. I should say Cameron. And next to the cheez its. And Cameron, I'm sorry. The, from a microeconomic standpoint, the ambiguity of the macro picture now, I've never seen. Do you feel that way? Yeah, I mean, clearly, it almost feels like we're in sort of a wile E coyote type situation. On the Nobel Prize. Yeah, so global central banks have had in particular of hiked rates, a heck of a lot over the last year. History sort of common sense dictates that that should eventually have a significant impact on the economy. But to date, it doesn't appear to be playing out quite as we thought. So in a sense, it almost feels like we're the coyote, maybe he's just still on the cliff. Maybe he stepped off the cliff, but he hasn't yet tumbled down to the canyon below. And we're kind of in us and the central banks or in sort of data watching mode and sort of in football terms kind of read and react. So Cameron, just looking at the eco data today, I'm looking at my eco go screen on the Bloomberg terminal. I mean, I've got core PCE higher than expected. Yet, I've got a strong labor market. If I'm chairman pal, I can sit back and say, hire for longer, no problem, right? Yeah, I mean, that seems to be the risk management philosophy of the fed. I mean, I think so many people who are sort of my age, I'm kind of half a century old, and younger have never lived in a world, professionally at least where the fed viewed higher inflation is the primary risk. It's always been growth that's too low inflation that's too low. And so risk management considerations mandated airing on the side of easy policy. That's no longer the case. And so risk management dictates erring on the side of restrictive policy and that is a difficult sea change to accept if you sort of build an investment strategy in predicated on a never ending flow of easy money. But the easy one is gone and this is the real, I think, for all of our listeners across this nation, this is the heart of the matter. There's enough gray hair between the three of us to remember when interest rates were tangible and fabozzi like normal. Okay, great. We had a 13 year interregnum. Is that correct? Yes. Yeah, thank you. Neil, how you guys are killing Cameron's kill with me. I mean, I can think that he can pronounce it's even better. But Cameron the point is the free lunch is over. It's not money for nothing anymore. What do you perceive will be our macro behavior given that it's not a Dire Straits economy anymore? Well, ultimately, it should be a higher level of risk premium across across asset markets. There is an important step to take between now and then, however, which is that the fed itself, I think, has to acknowledge that the world has changed. And for all the discussion of higher for longer, ultimately, they haven't done that yet because the dot plot still has the long-term dot at two and a half percent. The implication being that our star is sort of mythical neutral real interest rate is still only 50 basis points. Back pre GFC in the 90s even that was thought to be two and a half percent, a neutral real interest rate. So I think one of the real key things to watch moving forward is any discussion about whether that are star level, whether the long-term neutral rate, policy rate has shifted higher. And I think the longer that the economy remains resilient in the face of what the models would say is extraordinarily restrictive policy, the more likely it is that they have to acknowledge that maybe neutral is higher than they thought it was. Maybe 6 to 9 months ago, Danielle dimartino booth from quill intelligence said to us that one of the agenda items from mister Powell is to permanently take out the fed put the pal put. Do you think that's that was a focus of fed chairman pal in his fed and if so, have they achieved that? What do they want to permanently remove it? I think is up for debate. I mean, certainly tactically they've wanted to remove it because they've been trying to engender tighter financial conditions. Which again goes back to this idea of that's something that most people have never seen. Prior to last year, the fed actively trying to engineer tighter financial conditions. Whether that proved to be the case in the ultimate fullness of time, 5, ten years from now, on the I think it's too early to say. And to some extent, dictate is going to be dictated by again. The level of neutrality and how the market trades risk premia around whatever the new normal is from entrepreneurs. Cameron, thank you so much, Kim and Christ, Bloomberg global. Macro strategists with our news in New York City here's Michael
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration with the fed, I think, remains next year because we're going to look for the fed to eat and I think they're going to struggle to be with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect if that actually to do. Very fed up by the way. And in a couple of things. First of all, as you know, I don't think they've been hawkish. They barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volcker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away. After they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years, is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is the liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money running
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration of the bed I think remains next year because we're going to look for the pet to eat and I think they're going to struggle to ease with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed, let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect if that actually to do. Yeah, you're right. Very fed up by the way. And then a couple of things. First of all, as you know, I don't think they've been hawkish. They barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away after they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is a liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money running around out there. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's edition of the tape. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Plus, listen anytime
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"NHTSA dot gov slash the right seat, brought to you by the national highway traffic safety administration of the act council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration of the fed, I think, remains next year because we're going to look for the fed to eat and I think they're going to struggle to ease with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed, let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect the fed actually to do. Very fed up by the way. And in a couple of things. First of all, as I don't think they've been hawkish, they barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away after they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is a liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Always, let's get back to it. It is fed day and we've put together an all star panel in studio Neil Grossman former CIO of TK and G capital and Danielle dimartino booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence and joining us on the phone. Priya misra global head of rates strategy, managing director of TD securities. We've got the fed coming out with our statement of 2 p.m. Wall Street time, a little press conference two 30. Michael McKee's down in D.C., he flies. I tell him to take the acela, but he flies down to D.C.. He likes. He likes getting the points, I think, is kind of what we're all about. Wait, you know what? Did Daniel Mark, did you work with Priya? Did you guys wear you freshman together at yeah, I was saying this year in the break Priya that when we were both starting out in the industry when we were teenagers and you were at Bank of America and I was at the fed that you were one of my closest contacts. So it's good to be on with you. I've enjoyed lots of Ed conversations with Danielle. So let me ask you about something that Danielle mentioned during the break, which I wasn't really thinking about. But all of the big hawks on this fed are rotating out and they're gonna be replaced with either doves or cash carri and like who knows which way he's gonna go depending on the politics. But what do you think that means for February 1st? Are we gonna see another 50 basis point hike after this or are they gonna step down to 25? Yeah, and the market I think was about 50% priced for it. I think it's actually fair because we've had two CPI misses. So we get another week CP and other point to a .3. I think they can step down. I do think then they can keep going at 25 for a few more meetings. But it's interesting. I think the divisions at the fed will sound less unified. And whether it's because of the rotating members to your point or the fact that I think inflation and growth will point in different directions next year, much more than this year. This year it was one trade at high inflation. So they were all very unified. But next year is inflation goes down, but not all the way to 2% and growth starts to slow down in the labor market more importantly starts to weaken. I think you'll see the fed sounding a lot more divided. And the voting members won't help either. So yeah, I think it's going to become a lot harder to call the fed next year. When do they stop? When do they ease? What happens to QUT? And the fed will sound, I think, more divided on this. Danielle, we've got a function on a Bloomberg terminal DOTS the whole dot plot thingamajig. I don't know what the heck it means, but it looks like it's going down starting in 23. Does that make sense to you? And again, as you raise the issue of the makeup of the fed, does that make sense to you? Hang on, the dots, median rises in 23. Settings on your oh yeah, after 23, then it goes down to 24 and 25. Right. Yeah, and I think what you could actually see today in the dot plot is that some of those dots might move down in 23. So you might see a shift onto the Devi spectrum in fact, well, I'll be looking for today is maybe the widest disparity that we've ever seen to Prius point. It's going to be much more contentious. I think that Powell is going to be facing multiple descents. One of the things that has been on his side, which has been surprising to me, given John Williams came from the San Francisco fed and has traditionally been a dove, is that John Williams has been so loyal to Powell throughout this, and I think that's going to be critical next year because between bar at bar being one of them, Williams, Powell, and Waller, he's not going to have that many more voters. In his camp, we forget that Powell suffered full blown mutiny in the very end with not a single person until Wayne angel changed his vote back years and years ago, but I think it's going to be a much more contentious fed and I think the dot pots are going to widen out a lot. What do you think, Neil? I'm looking at four 62 right now in the dot plot. So basically four 75 is the upper range. And I'm going to take the other side of that that Danielle. I think they're going to four 8 or 5. Well, I think that's possible, but I think the other interesting question is going to become, again, it lower the ultimate peak rate, the longer I think they're going to end up having to maintain that level because I think again, it's going to become a question of sort of tug of war between the stimulative effects of not doing enough and the potential impact on prices. And their ability to ultimately push prices down low enough. Again, one of the things you might ask yourself is we just went through two years. Well, as of next month, we'll have gone through two years over 7% inflation. So we've already started a process of wave process of pushing the consequences out. And so if it's going to take you, for example, you're hearing people talking, we'll get to 2% at the end of next year. I find that hard to believe. But if it takes 5 years or 8 years to get you to 2%, it's very different than if you can get to 2% say in two and a half years. And keep in mind, mister Volcker, even with 20 some odd percent rates, it functionally took a generation to get to an ambient level. A lot of them. I mean, I put together a Ford F one 50 and I'm looking at $90,000 for an American pickup truck. That's just not, that's the most repossessed vehicle in America, and it's the 21 and 22 models that they're repossessing the most quickly mats. Yeah, because everything has big payments and they are a friend who goes to auction if you're ever interested. Yeah, I'm definitely interested. So I'll tag along. What do you think? I mean, the terminal rate, I guess, is important. And I think Neil brings up a great point. If they don't get higher, quick enough, they're going to have to be stuck at their relatively low late rate for longer. Right. And I do think that next year, despite the market really begging for the fed to ease, I think they're going to sound very resolute and not ease or even push back against some of the market pricing of cuts. And I wonder, I hope Chappelle's asked about that if you can lobby in a question to mister McKee to ask about the rate cuts is a market in the last month has priced in a lot more rate cuts in late 23, 24. And while I think they're going to have to cut in 24 because the unemployment rate will rise a lot, I struggled with the cuts in 23. Now on the dots, I think the media is going to move up for 23. It's a fair point that I wish we had a mid 23 dot because that would be a clear median or to clear estimate of terminal, but we don't have a mid 23. I
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
"Possibly, but I think that this particular GOP could cut off its nose despite its face and want a pound of flesh for at least a year. If we're already in recession, a year is a long time before you hit the relief valve. For this repossession, massive wave for people losing their cars for people's credit cards blowing up and having to move back in with their families. Again, if, again, politics can not be just kind of conveniently taken out of the equation. If this GOP is as revenge driven as they seem like they're going to be after the last two years of whatever the inflation acceleration act was, all that stuff. If they're determined to take revenge for that, then we could be in recession with nobody doing anything about it until they go, oh my God. There's a 2024 election coming up. We're going to get voting out of office by a bunch of really pissed off people who want more debt forgiveness. This is why I think that Joe Biden has already announced an 8th suspension of financial student loan payments as of January 1st. I tweeted it out this morning. I'm like, why don't we just quit playing games here? Why don't you just extend it until November of 2024, and it's the last hurrah. It's the last bit of give me that you can give. Give it away until November 2024. And quit telling people are going to get $20,000 in the mail. Move on. You know, it's so interesting to me looking at it from the vantage point of just how broken our money is. The fact that people vote in one guy and they're like, oh, well, it's still not getting better. Things are bad. Let's just do the other guy. Okay, wait, things are not better. They're worse. Okay, let's go back to the other guy and it's just this like ping Pong and meanwhile the politicians are just getting richer off of it. And so I kind of wanted to kind of curious what are your thoughts? She's got a damn ETF, Nancy Pelosi. I know. Wait, okay, so who in your opinion actually runs this country politicians? Corporations or banks?
Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell
"Is that why you believe that? So, you know, Jim grant has done beautiful work in this arena. He has studied closely, the depression of 1920 21. That was truly a depression. GDP declined to that great of an extent. The bad credits were expunged from the system and on we went to the roaring 20s. There was no intervention. Yeah, there was no intervention. So there is precedent. There is indeed precedent and this was at a time, by the way, I looked all the way back into the archives of Federal Reserve, and in the very early 1920s, there were bad banks that did have to go to the discount window. It's hard. It's going out of business is difficult. But if you make bad loans, you pay the price, or at least you did more than a hundred years ago in America. So the Austrians are correct, the question today becomes one of what that depression would look like because the stakes are so high. Right. Because they've kicked the can down the road so much. They didn't let it unwind. Yeah. And it is inevitably inevitably and always the little guy who suffers the most. Yeah. And seeing that through, all of this being said, we're talking about non banks and banks. If the regular banking system is impaired, the non banks have no exit route. There's no junk bond market. There's no IPOs. There's no mergers. There's no acquisitions. There's no way to keep the non banking system alive. If you impair the banking system, that to me would be the greater victory. Wow. Well, when you look back at the last, I would say 40 or so years, we had this secular bull market and we saw interest rates get down to zero. Now you're saying that Jerome Powell might be might be the leader of a new regime, right? Who's trying to fix some of these systemic problems? Can you explain to people from all your experience and your perspective from working at the fed, what that did really to the working class? Because right now, millennials and the generations that came after, they're frustrated. To me, it's literally no surprise that they're trying to escape the legacy system they're trying to build this new one in crypto and they just want a seat at the table and they want to be able to somehow afford a house and their vacations and their avocado toast and all of that. And I just want to get your take on from a macro level as a society where we got to because now we're more polarized and divided and we have these populist uprisings happening and it's no surprise because the wealthier have gotten so wealthy and more have gotten so poor. And you're right. And who are the wealthiest among the wealthy? These are the people who run the non banks of the world. They don't get paid what a CEO gets paid. They get paid ten, 20 times that. And they really do sit at the very, very top of what has gone wrong in a quality run off the rails.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From Bloomberg world, headquarters I'm Charlie Pelé to down the S&P nez stank all in the red right now. We're looking at an 8 tenths of 1% drop on the S&P 500 Index down 32 points now to 37 27, the Dow just below 32,000 right now 31,999 down a 148 points or by 5 tenths of 1% and NASDAQ is down a 119 a drop there of 1.1%. Ten year yield 4.13% with a two year yielding 4.68%. The Dow the S&P NASDAQ all remain in the red. Some of the other stories that we are following for you today, of course, we've got San Francisco based stripe, one of the world's most valuable startups announcing more than 1000 job cuts as it seeks to rein in costs ahead of any economic downturn. This according to an email to staff that was seen by Bloomberg news. Again recapping stocks lore, S&P 500 Index down 30, a drop now of 8 tenths of 1%. I'm Charlie peloton that is a Bloomberg business flash. Charlie, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg markets. We're recording reporting whatever you want to call it from the interactive broker studio, Paul Sweeney. Reported, they are out, I guess. I tried Nathan. Terrifying. I really, really tried. Creating Nathan Hager, filling in on a really exciting day, Nathan. This is post fed, you're seeing a very strange reaction in the stock market. It feels like there isn't really a consensus on whether or not the terminal rate could go much, much higher as a chairman Powell is certainly suggesting in his press conference ever less bonds are selling across the spectrum or across maturities. There's a lot to digest here and when we have this kind of conundrum of where do we even start? There's only one person to bring into the conversation. That of course is Liz McCormick. She's our chief markets correspondent on the FX and rate space, writing a pretty interesting story about how the fed is still enemy number one for a lot of these Wall Street traders, Liz, thank you as always for joining us, it's hard to pick a place to start because there's so much going on here, but if 5% is no longer the terminal rate in March of 2023, as was priced in going into the meeting, how high can we go? Yeah, boy, it's like a brain spinning time, right? I think all bets are off now. How was just so crystal clear like, hey, the data we saw since last meeting means our rates that we're going to project are higher, and so the market is pricing, the terminal rate isn't interesting out to June. It's got about 5.2 ish now, right? So, and you don't see barely any cuts by the end of the year. So that's like fed higher, keeps going higher and is very slow to cut rates. So that's kind of a double problem for bond investors, right? High rates and sticky high rates. Yeah, it keeps getting pushed back and back and back. And now we're seeing the inversion on the twos ten year at 55 basis points. I'm looking at a chart on it where it's like a spread that we're not we haven't seen since the early days of the Reagan administration. It makes you wonder how much further the idea of long and deep recession could be going in the bond market. Well, yeah, that's totally interesting. And I think, you know, I have a Jersey in our Bloomberg. The I group had a note saying, you know, that inversion is going to go further, right? Beyond these like already like you're saying historic levels. And with the feds in a bind, right? I mean, Powell said yesterday, the kind of path to a soft landing is getting worse, but their backs to the wall with inflation high. So yeah, Nathan, it could be that they have to go so far and the recession may be a worse recession than it would have been, right? Because the system, look at the housing market. Luckily, I'm not buying a house now, but for your trades to over 7%. Liz, I asked this question to I think a source of yours actually Danielle dimartino booth who is a favorite of our show. We talked a little bit about this comment that chairman Powell had made in his press conference. He said, well, the risk of over tightening is actually perhaps not that bad and I'm paraphrasing, of course, but he says we can always take a U turn. We can always kind of use the tools in our toolbox and cut rates. If we go too far. But Liz, in an environment where the Federal Reserve has gotten a lot of scrutiny for using those rates. And for quantitative easing as well, is there perhaps some hurdles for chairman Powell to actually cut rates when the time comes? Yeah, I mean, you're right. It's a good point. And I really like Danielle, like you said, too. But yeah, I mean, it's not so easy, right? He seemed to say, well, now, and he said in the past, it was vice versa, but now like you said, he said the risks are, you know, we let inflation stay too long. And that's a problem. So we can always cut rates, but you're right. You know, they're in a situation where it may not be that easy, especially, you know, creating them to kind of redeploy QE. There's a lot of political pushback against that, right? So I don't think he's got it too easy on either way, you know? Yeah, if they turn around too soon and if they were to pivot, which they definitely didn't yesterday and they let inflation get too bad, then they got to double down and then how you could again. But I think you're right that it may not be too easy if they crush this economy just to quickly revive it. So could things get worse before they get better next year for the fed Liz? Well, I think sadly we should all not look at our retirement accounts now. I think it's going to get worse for everything. Stocks are obviously taking it on the chin, the bond markets down, we've had that 60 40. There was no place to hide in the last year or two. And if the fed, we've got two CPI reports before their next meeting. If they're still strong, I mean, nothing will change as far as them seeming hawkish. So I think rates could go higher. This kind of 60, 40 paying could last and I'm not an equity analyst. I'm just saying, you know, what I see on the screens, but yeah, and you know, that's what they need, even though senators like Elizabeth Warren are saying we don't want too much pain, but Powell saying, sadly, we're going to have to have some pain for the American people. Otherwise, the pain could be worse if we have inflation for years and years entrenched. Liz 30 seconds here, the bull case for the dollar does it turn around or does it decrease the minute there is actually some sort of stalling out on the terminal rate. Well, wow, the bull case for the dollar, which was maybe seeming to kind of falter a little. It just got supercharged, right? But I think if the terminal rate keeps getting pushed higher and you have other central banks like the B of B today saying, hey, pull back your peak rates, you've got this divergence. So I think for now, there's not a lot to stop the dollar higher unless we get like two really soft CPIs, which I'm not predicting. Certainly something to watch. Liz McCormick our chief global macro markets correspondent. We thank you, as always, really the one and only name you have to ask when this kind of wonkiness takes place not
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We appreciate it. Thank you as always. Neil Grossman former CIO of TK and G capital management. He's here. Danielle dimartino booth quill intelligence. She shared in our Bloomberg interactive broker studio. Second segment with these folks because when we get them in a room, we gotta get as much out of them as we can. So Danielle, are we going to do a recession here? I just had a bunch of transportation companies saying, they don't see it. But boy, everybody else seems to see it. Well, it's ironic that you say transportation companies because truckers are going out of business at the fastest pace since 2018 right now. And transportations in a pickle. But no, I don't think that there should be a debate anymore about whether or not we're going into recession when the conference board queries CEOs and 98% of them say that we are almost in a recession and thereby, you know, therefore they are in cost cutting mode, I would point out that the ISM services survey that just came out a few minutes ago showed that employment actually contraction last month. So if the employment caboose is finally going to come into the station, I mean that's the final nail in the coffin of the recession debate. I'm confused, Neil, when it comes to what you're actually supposed to do in this environment in terms of the trade itself because it kind of felt like the bull case for the equity market and arguably for yields as well was the idea that the terminal rate would stall out at 5% and that was going to be the peak policy rate. But it keeps kind of shifting higher and higher every couple of months. So it kind of feels like there's this consistent upside risk that just doesn't go away. What do you trade in that environment? Well, a couple of things right now. I think number one from a dollar perspective is probably still raises the strength of the dollar at least in the short term. You're seeing, for example, commodities come off today, I think, probably commodity prices have some pressure, which of course is what they what they want. I've been having a rougher time trying to figure out what I would do with the yield curve. I'm looking for a point where I can actually put on a yield curve steep in her. I think the long end of the yield curve is still too low. But you're still fighting with the adjustment at the front of the curve. And from a broader perspective, what I like in this environment, I use, I use optionality because I think with higher volatility prices, even though we have had the haven't had the explosion in volatility that you might like to see, volatility is still high enough that you can put on trades with very, very favorable break-even. So that's sort of what I've been doing. Hey, Daniel, you know, I'm a simple equity guy, and I get the inflation talk. I get the recession talk. I think I've got that. What else am I missing? What's the thing out there that you think maybe investors or people in general are just not talking about enough or thinking about enough? So I think what is getting left behind is any talk or discussion of what's happening in the credit market. You've seen rates volatility. The vix is subdued. Yes. It's buried under a rock. But rates volatility viewed through the move index has just gone ballistic. It's at the highest level since 2007. And it's basically saying there's a credit event lurking out lurking out there and we forget that in 2018, the last time we were trying quantitative tightening that it was a credit event that actually bled through into the equity market at around this time of the year heading into Thanksgiving in the holidays that caused that Christmas Eve sell off in 2018, which by the way prompted the first Powell pivot. Yes, that's right. That's right. So Neil, I mean, again, I'll put it to you. What am I missing? I'm a simple guy. Well, it looks like. Let's go two things for going back. Let's go back to the fed for one moment. There are two things they're watching, employment. And inflation and the employment one is beginning to rise in priority because the unemployment rate is so low. You have to understand, if you went back in history up until COVID and what happened afterwards, the single highest 12 month average job creation was about 330,000 a month. Even after last month's number, we're still at 451,000 a month. So, and historical basis, the general view has been that a hundred to a 150,000 is a static employment market. Now, we have a very low participation rate and so if you can get a large jump that would help bring push up the unemployment rate. But if we're not going to get that to get a four and a half percent unemployment rate, which is talking about is going to take a lot of work. And even that, well, you just have to look at the numbers. It may happen next year this time, but it's not going to happen easily for 6 months. You're going to have to lay off. You're going to have to have losing jobs 200,000 a month for 6 months. Net, to get there. So I'm going to push back a little bit. If you look into the weekly jobless claims data, which appears to be benign on the surface. You'll see that in early September that jobless claims nationwide were down 49%. In the subsequent weeks, up until this morning's data, now they're down 23%, continuing claims bottomed out in early May. They have continued to quietly march upwards, continuing claims this is the one that you should follow more closely because that's people actually week after week collecting unemployment insurance. So that's an early May, low point. I think there's an unemployment rate shock building in this system right now. Just what the economy needs. All right guys, thank you so much for spending this extended period of time with us. We really appreciate it smart discussion. That's what we try to do here. Neil Grossman former CEO of TK and G capital and Danielle di martino booth of quill intelligence both in the Bloomberg interactive broker studio. They are not mailing it in so you guys, you get gold stars here. All right, let's head down to Washington, D.C.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York City to our worldwide audience. We're going to have a big opening half hour for you. We're going all Federal Reserve all Bank of England. We're going to do it on a round table with Neil Grossman former CIO, a TK NG capital. He's going to join us also Danielle dimartino booth of quill intelligence. They're going to be both of them in studio and we're going to be talking the fed, we're going to be talking inflation. We're going to be talking about a recession and what it means for these markets. So all star roundtable coming up. But first, let's go to John Tucker and get a Bloomberg business. All right, Paul, thanks to the S&P 500 dropping for a fourth consecutive session. Ten of the 11 industry groups and the broader index they are lower right now, being led by tech, information technology, communication services, there is some green energy is actually the best performing group right now. Well, of course, a day after the fed decision to deliver another jumbo sized industry rate increase traders of betting rates will now be held at a higher level for a longer period to not down inflation. You look at the swaps markup rates for swaps that reference future fed meetings rising further with the May and June 2023 contracts indicating that expected peak rate of around 5.2%. Economists Caleb Pickering at barenberg says short term gain from the fed, the pain for the pitch short term will lead to longer term gains. Fed is seems to be determined to bring down inflation. This is actually a short run problem for markets, but probably I think over the next few weeks it becomes something that helps us a little bit. The two year yield right now up 7 basis points four 69. The ten year yield, that is a 5 basis points four 15 right now, the spread between the two, a negative
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In business, podcast. I think it's probably the most popular podcast coming out of the Bloomberg complex. He's also chairman and chief investment officer at holtz wealth management. Barry, we had our Federal Reserve crystal clear yesterday in their attention about where rates are going. We wake this morning to see banks around the world kind of following suit, what do you make of this rate environment? What do you make of this economy here? Again, the Federal Reserve said, if you weren't paying attention to Jackson hole, you better be paying attention now. Yeah. You had to say very least. I think the first time they went 75 basis points, they got everybody's attention. But, you know, here is the needle they're trying to thread. Most of what we see in terms of inflation and especially on the goods side are all pandemic lockdown reopening supply chain snafus, which normally just are not responsive to interest rates. That's not what drives those problems. And so the fed says, hey, if you're not going to respond to interest rates, well then how are you going to respond to a recession? And that seems to be the plan to reduce demand so much that they cause enough of an economic contraction to end inflation. I think it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives inflation, but I've disagreed with the fed. They are a permanent part of the investment world. And rather than just tilt it, the windmill, you have to incorporate them into your approach. Dude, do you know what Danielle dimartino booth told us yesterday? And she repeated it again this morning was that Jay Powell has an ulterior motive. It's not just about inflation, he wants the break the back of the fed put. This market expectation that every time there's a problem, the fed is going to come to the stock market's rescue. I don't know, I thought when in 2008 and 9, the market fell 57%, that kind of was the end of the fed Porter or was it a technology in quantitative easing? Yeah, and the technology stocks falling 81% peak to trough in 2000. You know, George Collin used to do a routine about Indian fighters and said, it's not that they're bad fighters, just because they started off defending Boston and ended up in Santa Monica. And that's kind of how I feel about the fed put. It's a great put as long as you don't mind the occasional 56 or 80% crash. It doesn't seem like much of a put to me. And I've always thought Danielle isn't running money. So this isn't directed at her, but I always thought the fed put was a fantastic excuse from underperforming managers to explain. We would have had a great year if it wasn't for that damn Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. So what do you think, how do you think these markets are going to play out from here? I mean, are we just going to tread water, trend it down, grind, lower until we get a sense of, all right, this is the recession. This is the bottom, the next move is up. A gun lock said we're going to go down 20% in equities if we get to four and a half percent. Yesterday, Powell said 4.6% is likely and kind of hinted that he's headed towards 5. So here's really the question and, you know, most institutions that rely on forecasts don't do an especially good job and the Federal Reserve is now exception. They failed to recognize when they should have moved off an emergency footing. They were late to recognize inflation, and they're probably going to be late to recognize when they've done enough to stop inflation. So the question is, are they going to make a policy error? Will it be a small error? Will it be a large error? And really, the data that's going to come out and I know we're all sick to death at the term data dependent. The data over the next couple of months are going to determine, are they going to over tighten or are they going to wildly over Titan? Keep in mind by many measures, the fed has been too accommodative for too long. But it didn't matter when we were in a deflationary regime. And now we are in maybe transitory has become a dirty word. We are in a temporary multiyear inflationary regime and what comes next is going to really be dependent on how high they take rates. You know, we were talking to Greg Hahn earlier from winthrop capital management and he was talking about valuations, right? Because we're all looking to see what earnings are going to turn out to be in 2022, 2023 with margin compression and inflation is a problem blah, blah, but the point is the stock market puts a valuation on those earnings that we're expecting. And the valuation has been, I guess, historically high for years. He said, we haven't been undervalued in 15 years. What do you think is the right valuation? So, you know, I think that valuation is thought of almost like a snapshot and you really have to consider it more in terms of a video of a moving picture. In the beginning of secular bull markets, like the one that began in 1982, or the one that began in 2013, stocks tend to be kind of cheap. They tend to be somewhat unloved. And at the end of a bull market, stocks get pretty pricey and are overloved. And 82 to 2000 is my favorite example. The bulk of the gains came not because profits improved, but because earnings multiple expanded from 7 X in the beginning to 32 X at the end, 75% of the gains in that bull market were due not to earnings, but to those multiple expansions. And so if you're trying to pick what is the right PE, PEs are always wrong except for that brief moment, either as markets are running up or as they're coming down when markets value, but it's an instant increasing valuations are because of increasing investor sentiment, more money around, improving revenue and profits, and decreasing valuation is when the opposite happens. So fair value is the wrong way to look at equities. It's where are we in that cycle of improving investor sentiment and expanding multiples or worsening sentiment and contracting multiples? Barrier podcast masters and business who's coming up next. I have an amazing guess this weekend. Steve
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"You very much with the Bloomberg business flash out of San Francisco. Now, as we've been focused on today, more high well, high is an understatement. More massive inflation prints with the PPI coming out at 11.3. Yesterday we had the CPI out at 9.1. Let's talk with someone who can maybe offer you a solution in terms of the right hedge. David auerbach joins us right now managing director from armada ETF advisers and the cool thing is David with you and my co anchor pretty good. I can say, it's great to have you all here. Yeah. Definitely is. David got his BA at Texas. Did he? And his MBA at SMU. Well, the only reason he's telling me that is because for your information, David and for our entire audience, is my brother actually went to SMU. I grew up near SME. I'm a Dallas Dallas gal. I spent a few years hitting the bars around SMU. That's the same thing as getting my favorite places highland park, one of my favorite places to hang out. Let's get back to, well, actually it's really a real estate and partly residential story that you have for us, David, right? Because you think this is a great way to hedge against inflation. Absolutely. And thanks so much for having me. Really appreciate it and love the Dallas ties that's so cool. We take a very unique approach at armada. When we launched the home appreciation U.S. 3D TF in March, we had this view that we're building our fund on two fund principles. Number one, where people relocating across the country and then which of the residential REIT segments are benefiting from that relocation. From where we sit, we know that real estate is personal. If there's one thing that the three of us all have in common is that we're very fortunate enough to go to sleep with a roof over our head. Whether we lived in an apartment, we rent a house where we live is home. And that home is the most important investment decision that you make every single day. And as you mentioned about inflation, well, we know that interest rates are going up 75 basis points lock it in for sure, most likely a hundred at this rate, but what that means is that cost of that mortgage now gets more expensive. You have to come more to the table with the down payment. And so that's going to affect many first time home buyers and those that are probably in the market right now trying to buy that house. And for so many people, it's just been impossible, right? I mean, not only were they priced out of the market when mortgage rates were cheap. Now they have no chance of getting in. I know a lot of people just anecdotally who can't buy a house and I know people who can't sell a house because the buyers just can't afford it now, is that going to change? You know, I would say in the back half of the year, we would see some moderation, but frankly, I also think part of the place into that whole number one rule of real estate location location location. If you go talk to folks that are in Nashville or Charlotte or in Austin, they may have a different perspective right now, my neighbor across the street sold his house within a week here in Dallas and almost got full offer on his property. And so I think there are pockets that you're still seeing massive, massive strength, but the bigger problem here is that we all know there is a massive supply demand in balance in the housing markets. There's just not enough housing inventory to satisfy the amount of demand that's out there. David, is that going to change? I want to bring up another Texan that we're going to have on a little bit later on the show. Danielle dimartino booth. Whom you may know, she advised the fed and wrote a book called fed up. She advised the Dallas fed. She has said it's possible that we have a glut next year of housing and cars because so many people are trying to fill this void. What do you think about that possibility? You know, I don't know about that glutton necessarily. Again, the part of the problem is that air quitting is that affordable housing product that starter house doesn't exist anymore for those first time home buyers. But instead, you're seeing this plethora of single-family rental platforms from like invitation homes, American homes for rent. There is a tricon. There's a lot of single-family rental properties that are out there. One other point, employment growth is driving household formation. We know that the employment market is still strong with a three handle on the unemployment rate as a result, again, with inflation going up, gas prices are up and if you're an apartment landlord, you're still knocking on your tenants door on the first of the month saying, where's my rent? Many of these apartment companies as an example are reporting double digit year over year NOI growth rental growth, strong quarterly sequential growth. We're going into the summer prime leasing season for these apartment guys that are 97, 98, 99% occupied. And so again, it plays back into that thesis of where you live is that most important investment decision that you make for yourself for your family and for your kids. David, we got about a minute here. This is a trend that's not going away anytime soon. Do you foresee any sort of pop of the housing bubble anytime in our near future? If there is going to be, I think, a lot that's going to be dictated on future increases of the interest rates. We know obviously this next one is there going to be more down the road this year because that will play into the home price appreciation and the moderation of the housing market going forward. But again, with us focused on house, our ETF here, we're just trying to take it on a quarter by quarter basis, taking the news that's coming at us from the government Fannie Mae Redfin, Zillow, Bloomberg, all the sources that are kind of telling us where the housing market is headed. And right now, I will tell you from where we sit, we really don't see that letting up until maybe like I said back half of this year maybe into next year. All right, David, thanks so much for joining us, great having you all on this morning. David auerbach managing director at armada ETF advisers talking to us about possible inflation hedges. He would suggest one, which is their home appreciation, U.S. REIT, the ticker is house. Spelled in German, HA U.S. and you can
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Vince on he can talk any currency any commodity any asset and he's traded it at some point during his career We're going to talk to him But first let's go to Nathan Hager and get a Bloomberg business naked A lot of investors to chew on right now Paul sweetie We had the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for the rest of this year By three tenths percent after an earlier drop in April we also got a warning from Goldman Sachs strategists that rising equity yields could be a continued headwind for equity valuations but you look at the tenure right now it's actually the yield there is falling now below 3% You got stocks moving higher The S&P up 11 points to gain a three tenths percent the Dow is higher by 42 points for a game of one tenth of 1% The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the games up a half percent up 63 points All eyes on next week's policy meeting from the Federal Reserve markets all but totally pricing in two 50 basis point moves This month and next we spoke moments ago with Danielle dimartino booth CEO of quill intelligence she says watch for what fed chair Jay Powell and company signal for the months to come I think they had their eye on getting to that third 50 basis point rate hike in front of us in September and achieving that almost $100 billion a month run runoff rate for the balance sheet I think they're going to try and communicate that in this coming weeks meeting Man right now stocks as I mentioned are moving higher treasury yields moving lower the barrel and IMAX crude is at a $119 45 cents a gain of 8 tenths percent their comb ex gold up 6 tenths percent of $10 60 cents at 1854 30 announced the Euro is at 1.0704 against the dollar British pound 1.2580 the end one 32.44 That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller All right Nathan.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Was the date in 1983 when the movie was released in theaters I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie palette That Bloomberg world headquarters Elon Musk is now expressing doubt about whether he will succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal The billionaire entrepreneur said at a tet event in Vancouver quote I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it Earlier today must made a controversial offer to buy Twitter Dan Ives is an analyst with web bush securities This is a Game of Thrones And obviously once the situation happened with Twitter and the board and must not joining this became hostile situation Dan Ives of Wedbush and speaking of stepping it up what about the pace and size of Federal Reserve rate increases this year Danielle dimartino booth is chief strategist at quill intelligence People forget that this is a midterm election year And if there's one unwritten rule at the fed it's that you don't appear overtly political during election year Danielle dimartino booth of quill intelligence The deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund says the world needs to be preparing for downside scenarios relating to COVID-19 Gita gopinath is the IMF's first deputy managing director and she spoke with Bloomberg radio We need to prepare for that And that's the part where I think more needs to be done We need another 15 billion in grants this year to get the right amount of preparation in place and then 10 billion every year before pandemic preparedness Gita gopinath of the International Monetary Fund Stocks declined today with the S&P down 54 a drop of 1.2% for the week the S&P was down 2.4% the Dow today down 113 down three tenths NASDAQ down 292 down 2.1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie palette This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Business week profitable Let's dig into it with Bloomberg business week editor Joe Weber It's the cover story of the upcoming issue Bloomberg businessweek We did afternoons at two eastern These are retailers that have been on everybody's radar Those Apple numbers continuing to come in On Bloomberg radio the Bloomberg business app and Bloomberg radio dot com The FBI is piecing together Frank James life leading up to his alleged attack in the New York City subway system investigators have discovered James rented a U haul and a storage unit from a Philadelphia facility the day before he unleashed smoke canisters and opened fire on innocent train riders in Brooklyn Tuesday morning President Biden is blaming Russia's invasion of Ukraine for rising inflation 70% of the increase in inflation was a consequence of Putin's price site because of the impact on oil prices Speaking in North Carolina Biden promoted homegrown technology and manufacturing and said the U.S. must invest more money in research and development to stay competitive in the global economy The Russian Ministry of Defense says its warship has sunk in the Black Sea reports set a fire broke out on the guided missile cruiser causing explosions and the crew to be evacuated Ukraine said it hit the warship with anti ship missiles I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie pellet That Bloomberg world headquarters Elon Musk is now expressing doubt about whether he will succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal The billionaire entrepreneur said at a Ted event in Vancouver quote I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it Earlier today Musk made a controversial offer to buy Twitter Dan Ives is an analyst with web bush securities This is a Game of Thrones And obviously once the situation happened with Twitter and the board and must not joining this became hostile situation Dan Ives of Wedbush and speaking of stepping it up what about the pace and size of Federal Reserve rate increases this year Danielle dimartino booth is chief strategist at quill intelligence People forget that this is a midterm election year And if there's one unwritten rule at the fed it's that you don't appear overtly political during election year Danielle dimartino booth of quill intelligence The deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund says the world needs to be preparing for downside scenarios relating to COVID-19 Gita gopinath is the IMF's first deputy managing director and she spoke with Bloomberg radio We need to prepare for that And that's the part where I think more needs to be done We need another 15 billion in grants this year to get the right amount of preparation in place And then 10 billion every year before pandemic preparedness Gita gopinath of the International Monetary Fund stocks declined today with the S&P down 54 a drop of 1.2% for the week the S&P was down 2.4% the Dow today down 113 down three tenths NASDAQ down 292 down 2.1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie palette This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Everyone This is Bloomberg markets with balls we need and Matt Miller On Bloomberg radio Good Wednesday morning from the Bloomberg interactive broker studio in New York City to our worldwide audience We have some green on the screen here for that sell off yesterday What are investors to do in a rising interest rate environment We're going to check in with one of our faves Danielle dimartino booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence He's got some informed opinions Plus David Dee's managing principle and senior portfolio manager gladstone bank what is he doing with his client's capital as we head into 2022 But first let's go to Greg Jarrett Bloomberg news and getting Bloomberg business flash Greg we've got a rebound going on treasuries have reversed their early sell off as investors turn their attention to corporate earnings The S&P has bounced back a bit from the one month low with all 11 industry groups advancing earnings optimism offset speculation The Federal Reserve may deliver more than a quarter percentage point in March interest rate hike to fight inflation Patrick Armstrong stronger of blew rimi wealth tells Bloomberg he does not think a recession should be an immediate concern following such a height We're still in above normal growth I think U.S. economy is probably going to grow about four and a half percent this year The fed inevitably has caused almost all the previous recessions Powell's talked about this And I think they're aware of that And the letting the economy run hot They did that all last year and now we're seeing what happens from that But I think they won't hike too far this time S&P is up 6 tenths of a percent of 27 the Dow's up three tenths of a percent of a 115 the NASDAQ is up 9 tenths of a percent of a 124 to ten years up 7 30 seconds the yield 1.84% which taxes intermediate crudes up 1.3% at 86 59 a barrel Comics goals of 8 tenths of a percent of 1827 60 announced the dollar yen one 1433 the Euro dollar 1347 in the pound a dollar 36 43 Home buyers willing to spend almost a $1 million for competing the most for a piece of the red hot U.S. housing market homes priced between 800,000 and a $1 million so the highest rate of bidding wars of 64.6% followed by 62% for homes between a 1 million 1 and a half 1,000,061.7% for homes above one and a half million assault according to December data from Redfin That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets is on now Paul Sweeney and Mac Miller All.
Biz Talk Radio
"danielle dimartino" Discussed on Biz Talk Radio
"Everybody. And welcome to best seller TV. I'm Taryn Winter. Brill, We're here with Danielle DiMartino Booth. She's the author of Fed up an insider's Take on Why The Federal Reserve is bad for America. Great to have you with us. Thank you for having me today. Love the title first off. We were just talking behind the scenes it It's amazing you were able to get that title. It's a study in subtlety, isn't it? It really is. Let's get right into it before we get into why you feel the Federal Reserve is bad for America. Tell us how you're an insider. How is this an insider's Take? Are you the insider? I was the insider I was, and I said for nearly nine years, but more importantly, If you go further back into my background just a little bit. I was also an insider on Wall Street. So I took a much different perspective into the federal Reserve. That of somebody who saw the world through the prism of the financial markets. Okay on then I ended up being there. Prior to the financial crisis kind of as the housing bubble was. Erupting and the great financial crisis was descending upon the economy in the country and the global economy, for that matter, so I was able to really have a bird's eye view. On the carnage of the financial crisis from ground zero. The front lines of the federals are on the frontlines. Absolutely, and tell us in what capacity did you work? The Federal Reserve. I started out as an analyst and I ended up becoming an adviser to Richard Fisher on monetary policy, and before he would go after Washington. I would brief him on Every matter that seemed to be as concerned with the financial markets as opposed to just economic data flow, GDP growth inflation, etcetera. I really briefed him on what was happening in commercial real estate. What was happening in the corporate bond market, which affects a lot of your readers, Obviously sure every aspect of the financial markets that you could possibly name Was my responsibility and Daniel, you know, looking back at the 2008 financial crisis. Bring us back. Did you see it coming? You know I did, And that's I think the reason that I came onto Richard Fisher's radar screen in the first place was that before I joined the Fed, I was predicting that the housing bubble would not just present itself if you will. That it would present systemic risk as well. It would become a threat to the entire global financial system, and there weren't very many people saying that in 2005 in 2006, but I was and that really, you know, I think a lot of people at the Fed, including Richard Fisher himself weren't convinced. That what was happening in the subprime housing market was going to become this mammoth issue. To face down for central bankers all around the world, but they brought me on. They brought me into this said just in case just in case I was right. And they said Thanks, but no, thanks. No, no, no, no. There was definitely a point of validation after I came into the fed, But it wasn't very It wasn't really a cause for celebration because you're not celebrating. Millions of people beginning to lose their homes. The economy descending in the worst recession since the Great Depression, right, But how come no one took the threat more seriously? Well, it had been since the 19 thirties since the Great Depression that we had seen the phenomenon of nationwide price declines. Residential real estate was always kind of the local phenomena. And yet here we were, Despite the fact that Alan Greenspan and subsequently Ben Bernanke assured the American public This could never happen on a nationwide scale. And yet it did. So let's talk a little bit about the book specifically why now, why write this book? Now? Has this been a labor of love is it's been many years in the making. It has. It's certainly been a reason to pull myself away from my my family and my young Children, But by the same token, I felt that I had a responsibility.
Bloomberg Markets
Data reaffirms expectation for a slowing in consumer spending
"More we are so lucky to have Danielle DiMartino both in the studio with us here chief executive officer and chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion column as a former fed employee in Dallas and you know I really want to focus on the consumer we got a number of data today I got a point consumer spending came in lower than expected and the Bloomberg consumer comfort index plunged the most on a weekly basis in eighteen years in eight years and yet Jake how this put all of his eggs in the one basket of saying we're not going to cut rates as long as the consumer hangs in there it's a big bet on his part I mean he really really is not diversifying fed policy let's put it that way all right so I take it just from that come along that you think that the fed you becoming more it's not so much the rate will look the economy is slowing and it gets tiresome to listen to these press conferences when Jay pals clearly in denial yes interest rate sensitive sectors actually let's just say sector because autos really haven't budged in fact auto buying intentions in the latest consumer confidence data are crashing so the only thing the only needle that's been moved by these rate cuts in housing that's it and and we're seeing as I was as I was just thinking least worst we saw in the bank earnings reports that the credit card spending rates have been coming down revolving credit has been a tremendous support for consumer spending we're seeing the saving rate take up we saw that this morning it took up to eight point three percent consumers are clearly battening down the hatches were seen deposits cash savings increase as well so I think the consumer senses that there's something amiss but again that's where Jay pals got all of his bass all right there are two questions implicit here first question well cutting rates actually encourage consumers to spend more no there it it's it's now I I don't think it will and that you know might mean he's been very good at press conferences about drilling him on this what are these rate cuts going to do I think the rate cuts have more to do with the plumbing in the financial system because the fed is buying treasury bills like there's no tomorrow and money market funds are arbitrage in this by parking their money at the fed where they get an additional ten basis points it's boxing the fed into where they have to continue to lower rates okay the second question that I have is regarding that credit card spending is the biggest banks I read the heard on the street column in the Wall Street journal about this and it was not that it is declining it's just that the growth in the credit card revolving credit has been lower right coming down and I guess they're two ways to read this you could read this as a tempering of the economy which everyone knows that it's slowing and you could or you could look at it as out waiting consumer confidence and a sign that things are gonna turn south which is the correct read I think that consumers know that there is slowing let jobless claims of barely moved by the breath of states that have increasing jobless claims has increased from about a third it hit seventy five percent in September we're running about fifty one percent now of state in the country with rising jobless claims and to your point about growth in credit card spending slowing the average weekly earnings will get new data out tomorrow morning but in June it was running at a four percent right in September it'd take down to two point six percent that's the paycheck growth it's not so much that income is declining it's that households know that their paycheck is no longer growing at the same pace so it's it appears a chairman pal and some members of the the dovish fed if you will are thinking about it it's all about the jobs and everybody's got a job on points at its all time low briefly tell off the sidelines a lot blah blah blah blah so tomorrow what's the what do you look at the cut through the blah blah blah tomorrow the jobs number so I'll be focused tomorrow on the sectors where we're seeing job growth if you looked inside the internals of the eighty P. report yesterday one sector financials that was the only one where you saw any growth of any kind and super large companies over a thousand place otherwise you name the sector contracting and you name the size of the business seriously slowing growth so I'm going to be looking at where jobs being created we've seen in the survey we've seen in the soft data that service and employment indices have come down with in in the case of market it's a ten year low so I'll be looking to see what types of jobs are being created dig into this consumer comfort data and you will see that the highest income earners their confidence has been coming down mom at a much faster pace than the people who they employ who still have high confidence are the is the consumer a leading or lagging indicator absolutely lacking every recession like sixty three percent of post war recessions we have been in recession with with expanding consumption it is not something that you look to to see where the economy is headed it is something you look in the rear view mirror to see post facto we're cooking what did you want to hear from chairman Powell yesterday that you didn't hear I wanted to hear a lot more about the repair facility I wanted to hear a lot more about why he contends that it's not quantitative easing just because it's at the at at the short end of maturity curve I don't think there were enough questions that were asked and I think that his intent and his Cinderella wish is to have a nineteen ninety five nineteen ninety eight redox and be Alan Greenspan to where the economy just continues to expand after three rate cuts but in ninety five we were at the beginning of an economic expansion in ninety eight we had a massive hedge fund blowing up these were idiosyncratic events were not there we're deep deep deep into this economic expansion and I would have preferred to have seen a little bit more about him saying no more rate cuts but by the way QB's blasting right king of the Martinez thank you so much for joining us really helpful Daniels the CEO chief strategist of quill intelligence also a Bloomberg opinion calmest giving us her smart thoughts on what we heard yesterday from chairman Palin the fed and what we might be looking for to what we need to focus on tomorrow with the jobs number of course Bloomberg radio will cover the jobs report in full as we