17 Burst results for "Danielle Dimartino Booth"

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

02:10 min | 2 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"It's time for a quick break to hear these messages from my partners. First up, crowd health, a Bitcoin alternative to health insurance. Health insurance costs can be sky high today and you essentially send money every month to a massive corporation, the health insurance black hole as I call it. And if you don't need any healthcare, you never see that money again, right? But if you do need to go to a doctor, you end up having to pay even more out of pocket, especially if you end up as one of the 20% of claims on average that aren't covered. With crowd health, you pay a small monthly fee that goes into an account that you actually accrue over time and is yours to use or keep if you ever leave. You can even save that money in Bitcoin. Crowd health is all about community and the community crowdfunds everyone's healthcare. So if something does happen or you have a doctor visit, crowd health will negotiate down the medical bill

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

02:26 min | 2 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"I've got to write their checks to Uncle Sam for their taxes. So she's going to get a little bit more cash in the checking account by a little bit of time. And then she's going to have to keep depleting it until there is no money. And then you've got these freedom caucus, guys who don't appear to be bending at all. Saying, we don't care what kind of smear campaigns you do. We don't care what you say to us. We don't care what advertisements you want to run on the television. We only care about policy. And we proved it because we forced 15 votes before we would let the speaker get his hand on that gavel. So, sister Yellen, close the national parks, close the smithsonians, close it all down until you're ready to come and truly negotiate. That's who we're dealing with. Right now. So yes, this could definitely force Powell's hand to remember the day after its resolved. That's when Janie Allen's like, I'm sorry, early retirement by because who wants to sell 7, 8, $900 trillion worth of treasury bills. And all of a sudden, people are like, oh, I thought quantitative tightening was sterilizing the effect of I thought Janet Ellen running down the nation's checking account balance with sterilizing the deleterious effects of quantitative typing on the broader financial liquidity. This is, oh God, it's not. She just sold $1 trillion in bills. Game over. But will it matter at that point? Are we going to have anything inflationary? Hell, no, my God. That's the problem. That's what people don't understand. Natalie, I know you're just letting me go on and on. No. I love it. This is really really hard for these moments. Another soccer two's moment. So here comes a pandemic, right? Boom. Whether it was made in a lab, whether it was running around in some squirrel, here comes a global pandemic. So guns load it, here comes J pal, was Jay Powell alone in alleviating what ailed the country. Now he wasn't, the cares act was there. What was it? 7, $8 trillion of fiscal spending. I was actually going to pull up this statistic for you. PPP cost U.S. taxpayers a 169,000 to 258,000 per preserved position, even though the median annual salary was 58,000. I saw that tweet. God love him. Waste of money? Continued waste of money.

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

05:51 min | 2 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"Grateful to be joined again this week with Danielle dimartino booth, who CEO of quill intelligence and author of fed up. Thank you so much, Danielle for joining me. This has been a tumultuous time. I know you've gotten some feedback before and after you wrote this excellent article called too small to fail. And we're going to be talking about that as well as some of your takes on what's happening with the banking crisis, but thank you so much for joining me. Natalie, it's great to be here. There was a tiny bit of a typo in that. It was too small to not fail to not fail. And that's kind of the whole point of where we are today with what I believe to be, even if it's a calm down banking crisis, I don't think it's over yet. Well, let's get into it. And first, since you have so much experience and you worked for the Federal Reserve, I want to sort of back up and zoom out because I think a lot of people are weighing in with their macro views when they don't really understand the banking system at all, right? Twitter is great for that. And so I would love for you to sort of give us the landscape. We have a Federal Reserve. That's our Central Bank, then there are the member banks. You worked for the one in Dallas. I have one here in St. Louis, where I live, then there are the commercial banks. So can you kind of explain to people how the banking system in the United States works. So actually, I wrote, I wrote fed and bank balance sheet one O one. That was my feather today. So you have to think of banks as having somewhat unique balance sheets, right? We've all assets, liabilities, equity, but what the Central Bank has is it has banks all across the country, park money at the fed as if the fed was this great big repository for reserves.

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration with the fed, I think, remains next year because we're going to look for the fed to eat and I think they're going to struggle to be with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect if that actually to do. Very fed up by the way. And in a couple of things. First of all, as you know, I don't think they've been hawkish. They barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volcker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away. After they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years, is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is the liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money running

Neil Grossman Priya mizra Danielle dimartino booth fed Paul Volcker Volcker
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:55 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration of the bed I think remains next year because we're going to look for the pet to eat and I think they're going to struggle to ease with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed, let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect if that actually to do. Yeah, you're right. Very fed up by the way. And then a couple of things. First of all, as you know, I don't think they've been hawkish. They barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away after they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is a liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money running around out there. Catch more of this and other conversations on today's edition of the tape. Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Plus, listen anytime

Neil Grossman Priya mizra Danielle dimartino booth fed Paul Volcker Volker Spotify Apple
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:51 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"NHTSA dot gov slash the right seat, brought to you by the national highway traffic safety administration of the act council. On the latest edition of the tape podcast, a fed roundtable with Neil Grossman, Priya mizra and Danielle dimartino booth. Some of the frustration of the fed, I think, remains next year because we're going to look for the fed to eat and I think they're going to struggle to ease with inflation still high next year. Speaking of frustration with the fed, let me bring in Neil Grossman here. And first, let me say, you got to differentiate between how you feel about the fed what the fed should be doing in your take and what you expect the fed actually to do. Very fed up by the way. And in a couple of things. First of all, as I don't think they've been hawkish, they barely done anything in the way they should have, because I call it, as you know, infinitesimal incrementalism. They haven't even done one Volker yet as far as I'm concerned. Paul Volcker raised rates 4% intermediate on a weekend. That would have been something. And I'm sorry for you, but they don't haven't done quantitative tightening either. Letting something slowly drip drip away after they bought a 130 billion a month for ten years is not tightening. So I mean, yes, there are effects, but to be honest with you, I would stop tightening now and announce this afternoon that I'm going to start selling bonds at a clip of 50 to a 100 billion a month. That would be effective per se. Now, what are they going to do or not? I'm not going to disagree too much. Other than I think the thing you need to watch or consider is a liquidity. I'm going to push back as hard as I possibly can about quantitative tightening not taking place. Now, there's something called the employee retention credit in the 9 months through November. It injected a 120 plus $1 billion into the economy, so there is still stimulus money

Neil Grossman fed national highway traffic safet Priya mizra Danielle dimartino booth NHTSA Paul Volcker Volker
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:39 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Always, let's get back to it. It is fed day and we've put together an all star panel in studio Neil Grossman former CIO of TK and G capital and Danielle dimartino booth CEO and chief strategist at quill intelligence and joining us on the phone. Priya misra global head of rates strategy, managing director of TD securities. We've got the fed coming out with our statement of 2 p.m. Wall Street time, a little press conference two 30. Michael McKee's down in D.C., he flies. I tell him to take the acela, but he flies down to D.C.. He likes. He likes getting the points, I think, is kind of what we're all about. Wait, you know what? Did Daniel Mark, did you work with Priya? Did you guys wear you freshman together at yeah, I was saying this year in the break Priya that when we were both starting out in the industry when we were teenagers and you were at Bank of America and I was at the fed that you were one of my closest contacts. So it's good to be on with you. I've enjoyed lots of Ed conversations with Danielle. So let me ask you about something that Danielle mentioned during the break, which I wasn't really thinking about. But all of the big hawks on this fed are rotating out and they're gonna be replaced with either doves or cash carri and like who knows which way he's gonna go depending on the politics. But what do you think that means for February 1st? Are we gonna see another 50 basis point hike after this or are they gonna step down to 25? Yeah, and the market I think was about 50% priced for it. I think it's actually fair because we've had two CPI misses. So we get another week CP and other point to a .3. I think they can step down. I do think then they can keep going at 25 for a few more meetings. But it's interesting. I think the divisions at the fed will sound less unified. And whether it's because of the rotating members to your point or the fact that I think inflation and growth will point in different directions next year, much more than this year. This year it was one trade at high inflation. So they were all very unified. But next year is inflation goes down, but not all the way to 2% and growth starts to slow down in the labor market more importantly starts to weaken. I think you'll see the fed sounding a lot more divided. And the voting members won't help either. So yeah, I think it's going to become a lot harder to call the fed next year. When do they stop? When do they ease? What happens to QUT? And the fed will sound, I think, more divided on this. Danielle, we've got a function on a Bloomberg terminal DOTS the whole dot plot thingamajig. I don't know what the heck it means, but it looks like it's going down starting in 23. Does that make sense to you? And again, as you raise the issue of the makeup of the fed, does that make sense to you? Hang on, the dots, median rises in 23. Settings on your oh yeah, after 23, then it goes down to 24 and 25. Right. Yeah, and I think what you could actually see today in the dot plot is that some of those dots might move down in 23. So you might see a shift onto the Devi spectrum in fact, well, I'll be looking for today is maybe the widest disparity that we've ever seen to Prius point. It's going to be much more contentious. I think that Powell is going to be facing multiple descents. One of the things that has been on his side, which has been surprising to me, given John Williams came from the San Francisco fed and has traditionally been a dove, is that John Williams has been so loyal to Powell throughout this, and I think that's going to be critical next year because between bar at bar being one of them, Williams, Powell, and Waller, he's not going to have that many more voters. In his camp, we forget that Powell suffered full blown mutiny in the very end with not a single person until Wayne angel changed his vote back years and years ago, but I think it's going to be a much more contentious fed and I think the dot pots are going to widen out a lot. What do you think, Neil? I'm looking at four 62 right now in the dot plot. So basically four 75 is the upper range. And I'm going to take the other side of that that Danielle. I think they're going to four 8 or 5. Well, I think that's possible, but I think the other interesting question is going to become, again, it lower the ultimate peak rate, the longer I think they're going to end up having to maintain that level because I think again, it's going to become a question of sort of tug of war between the stimulative effects of not doing enough and the potential impact on prices. And their ability to ultimately push prices down low enough. Again, one of the things you might ask yourself is we just went through two years. Well, as of next month, we'll have gone through two years over 7% inflation. So we've already started a process of wave process of pushing the consequences out. And so if it's going to take you, for example, you're hearing people talking, we'll get to 2% at the end of next year. I find that hard to believe. But if it takes 5 years or 8 years to get you to 2%, it's very different than if you can get to 2% say in two and a half years. And keep in mind, mister Volcker, even with 20 some odd percent rates, it functionally took a generation to get to an ambient level. A lot of them. I mean, I put together a Ford F one 50 and I'm looking at $90,000 for an American pickup truck. That's just not, that's the most repossessed vehicle in America, and it's the 21 and 22 models that they're repossessing the most quickly mats. Yeah, because everything has big payments and they are a friend who goes to auction if you're ever interested. Yeah, I'm definitely interested. So I'll tag along. What do you think? I mean, the terminal rate, I guess, is important. And I think Neil brings up a great point. If they don't get higher, quick enough, they're going to have to be stuck at their relatively low late rate for longer. Right. And I do think that next year, despite the market really begging for the fed to ease, I think they're going to sound very resolute and not ease or even push back against some of the market pricing of cuts. And I wonder, I hope Chappelle's asked about that if you can lobby in a question to mister McKee to ask about the rate cuts is a market in the last month has priced in a lot more rate cuts in late 23, 24. And while I think they're going to have to cut in 24 because the unemployment rate will rise a lot, I struggled with the cuts in 23. Now on the dots, I think the media is going to move up for 23. It's a fair point that I wish we had a mid 23 dot because that would be a clear median or to clear estimate of terminal, but we don't have a mid 23. I

fed Danielle Neil Grossman CIO of TK G capital Danielle dimartino booth Priya quill intelligence Priya misra Michael McKee Daniel Mark Powell D.C. TD securities John Williams carri Wayne angel Bank of America
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

05:45 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"Possibly, but I think that this particular GOP could cut off its nose despite its face and want a pound of flesh for at least a year. If we're already in recession, a year is a long time before you hit the relief valve. For this repossession, massive wave for people losing their cars for people's credit cards blowing up and having to move back in with their families. Again, if, again, politics can not be just kind of conveniently taken out of the equation. If this GOP is as revenge driven as they seem like they're going to be after the last two years of whatever the inflation acceleration act was, all that stuff. If they're determined to take revenge for that, then we could be in recession with nobody doing anything about it until they go, oh my God. There's a 2024 election coming up. We're going to get voting out of office by a bunch of really pissed off people who want more debt forgiveness. This is why I think that Joe Biden has already announced an 8th suspension of financial student loan payments as of January 1st. I tweeted it out this morning. I'm like, why don't we just quit playing games here? Why don't you just extend it until November of 2024, and it's the last hurrah. It's the last bit of give me that you can give. Give it away until November 2024. And quit telling people are going to get $20,000 in the mail. Move on. You know, it's so interesting to me looking at it from the vantage point of just how broken our money is. The fact that people vote in one guy and they're like, oh, well, it's still not getting better. Things are bad. Let's just do the other guy. Okay, wait, things are not better. They're worse. Okay, let's go back to the other guy and it's just this like ping Pong and meanwhile the politicians are just getting richer off of it. And so I kind of wanted to kind of curious what are your thoughts? She's got a damn ETF, Nancy Pelosi. I know. Wait, okay, so who in your opinion actually runs this country politicians? Corporations or banks?

GOP Joe Biden Nancy Pelosi
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

01:45 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"It has to start with leadership. has to start with changing the constitution, which is something you can do if you can get two thirds of the states to agree to term limits. So we never fall down this rabbit hole again. So that we make sure that the politicians who are working on our behalf, they don't have anything to lose. They just need to do their job because they know that they're going to leave after a set number of years. And that is when you have somebody like a pat toomey from Pennsylvania. Stand in the way of so many different forms of corruption in the financial system because he knew he was leaving. He ran on term limits and he is leaving in January based on that term limit. And we have so few examples of politicians who agree to the job and do the job because they know that the job is going to end. And only if it ends, is it going to be a means by which to serve? And but again, this is something that could be changed with the company. We forget that we have the constitution. We bitch and moan on voters on election day. There's a way for the people to come and change the laws of the country. Amend the constitution. These are things that can be done. It's a grassroots effort though. You say, how do we do this? One door at a time. One millennial at a time, one gen X at a time. That knows people in my generation are tired of the boomers. Exhausted of them and what they've done. Because it's affecting our children's pathway. 1816, 14 and 14, my kids. I'm kind of happy there in school right now. Let's wait this puppy out. Hopefully we get young leadership in between. And you can come into a workforce that's a better place. But it

pat toomey Pennsylvania
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

05:10 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"Is that why you believe that? So, you know, Jim grant has done beautiful work in this arena. He has studied closely, the depression of 1920 21. That was truly a depression. GDP declined to that great of an extent. The bad credits were expunged from the system and on we went to the roaring 20s. There was no intervention. Yeah, there was no intervention. So there is precedent. There is indeed precedent and this was at a time, by the way, I looked all the way back into the archives of Federal Reserve, and in the very early 1920s, there were bad banks that did have to go to the discount window. It's hard. It's going out of business is difficult. But if you make bad loans, you pay the price, or at least you did more than a hundred years ago in America. So the Austrians are correct, the question today becomes one of what that depression would look like because the stakes are so high. Right. Because they've kicked the can down the road so much. They didn't let it unwind. Yeah. And it is inevitably inevitably and always the little guy who suffers the most. Yeah. And seeing that through, all of this being said, we're talking about non banks and banks. If the regular banking system is impaired, the non banks have no exit route. There's no junk bond market. There's no IPOs. There's no mergers. There's no acquisitions. There's no way to keep the non banking system alive. If you impair the banking system, that to me would be the greater victory. Wow. Well, when you look back at the last, I would say 40 or so years, we had this secular bull market and we saw interest rates get down to zero. Now you're saying that Jerome Powell might be might be the leader of a new regime, right? Who's trying to fix some of these systemic problems? Can you explain to people from all your experience and your perspective from working at the fed, what that did really to the working class? Because right now, millennials and the generations that came after, they're frustrated. To me, it's literally no surprise that they're trying to escape the legacy system they're trying to build this new one in crypto and they just want a seat at the table and they want to be able to somehow afford a house and their vacations and their avocado toast and all of that. And I just want to get your take on from a macro level as a society where we got to because now we're more polarized and divided and we have these populist uprisings happening and it's no surprise because the wealthier have gotten so wealthy and more have gotten so poor. And you're right. And who are the wealthiest among the wealthy? These are the people who run the non banks of the world. They don't get paid what a CEO gets paid. They get paid ten, 20 times that. And they really do sit at the very, very top of what has gone wrong in a quality run off the rails.

Jim grant depression fed Jerome Powell America
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

05:55 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"Next up, let's talk about Bitcoin 2023. That is the biggest Bitcoin conference in the world and take a look at the video from last year in Miami. It was an incredible event that was jam packed with the best speaking sessions workshops and networking events that I've been to in this space. I had the chance to live anchor the Bitcoin magazine news desk and serve as MC and it was such a full circle moment for me to be at that conference because the first one I attended was Bitcoin 2021 in Miami and that's where I actually launched the coin stories podcast. I went on a media pass because they used to be a reporter and I actually went backstage and started asking the speakers like Michael saylor and Preston pish if they would come on my show and they did and a year later I'm back at the conference as someone who actually has a career now in Bitcoin. So you never know what can happen at these events. I highly recommend going so you can meet other people that share the same values and passion for Bitcoin and if you want your ticket at a 10% discount had to be dot TC slash conference and use the code HODL. I'll see you there. But that's how I got to the fed. Wow. Well, okay, so working for the president, you saw the housing bubble implode, and your book is called fed up. I mean, you are now a critic of the Federal Reserve once again. And so can you talk a little bit about the lessons learned that maybe can really be applied today with this latest bubble and the fact that we've kicked the can up to the sovereign level now. And we're about to hit what most analysts say will be a major recession. And you know, the working class, the people, our background, I feel like it's very similar. Like the working classes hit the most because they're working harder and harder for dollars worth less and less. And at this point, at some point, they just have to print. So what is the sorts of things that you learn that you really want the average person to know? So when we're talking about crippling inflation, we had crippling inflation in a way, back in the aftermath. And even leading up to the great financial crisis, but policymakers statisticians, they were measuring it improperly. So asset price inflation is very much a real phenomenon. When you think of 10 million plus homes lost if foreclosures in the aftermath, those are 10 million families who lost their homes. They were taught to buy into this speculative bubble. And they were reassured that inflation wasn't a thing because it was being measured improperly, insufficiently measured. And at the end of massive internal staff papers and debates and gee, we missed that bubble and how did that happen? The fed decided to do nothing. They didn't change the inflation metric that they followed. And I got really mad. And started planning on this book that I was going to write called fed up. So you don't recognize a problem and then choose to do nothing about it. Because if that happens, then you'll stumble into the same situation again where you're proactively inflating bubbles because you don't recognize asset price inflation and what a zero interest rate environment brings about in a nefarious way.

Bitcoin magazine Michael saylor Preston pish Miami Federal Reserve
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

04:35 min | 6 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Coin Stories with Natalie Brunell

"Like an orange peeled version of CNBC, so make sure to check that out on YouTube for all the biggest headlines because we are not afraid to question the mainstream narrative. All right? It's time for the show. Thank you so much for joining me on another episode of coin stories and here with me today. I'm so excited to have Danielle dimartino booth. She is the CEO and chief strategist for quill intelligence and she's also a global thought leader on monetary policy economics and finance finance. Danielle, thank you so much for joining me. It's great to be here. My first time with you Natalie, thank you for having me. Yeah, I've seen you on Fox News, Fox business with Charles Payne a lot. So super excited to have you. And I want to start with your origin story because that's how I start all my shows. And I read and heard that you have an Italian immigration story, which I'm really excited about because I used to live in Italy. I actually speak Italian. So I want to hear how your family made it from Italy to here. Babin, I speak a little Spanish, which makes absolutely no sense. So in 1923, two brothers came across from abruzzo, which is on the Adriatic. Actually, a pre Roman town there. And there was so little work that in 1927, one of the two brothers went back. But my great grandfather stayed, Gennaro di martino. And so his son came over when he was two years old to Ellis island. He was quarantined with polio. And then came through and was the 5th of 7 children.

Danielle dimartino quill intelligence Charles Payne CNBC YouTube Danielle Natalie Fox News Italy Fox Babin abruzzo Gennaro di martino Ellis island polio
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:24 min | 7 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"From Bloomberg world, headquarters I'm Charlie Pelé to down the S&P nez stank all in the red right now. We're looking at an 8 tenths of 1% drop on the S&P 500 Index down 32 points now to 37 27, the Dow just below 32,000 right now 31,999 down a 148 points or by 5 tenths of 1% and NASDAQ is down a 119 a drop there of 1.1%. Ten year yield 4.13% with a two year yielding 4.68%. The Dow the S&P NASDAQ all remain in the red. Some of the other stories that we are following for you today, of course, we've got San Francisco based stripe, one of the world's most valuable startups announcing more than 1000 job cuts as it seeks to rein in costs ahead of any economic downturn. This according to an email to staff that was seen by Bloomberg news. Again recapping stocks lore, S&P 500 Index down 30, a drop now of 8 tenths of 1%. I'm Charlie peloton that is a Bloomberg business flash. Charlie, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg markets. We're recording reporting whatever you want to call it from the interactive broker studio, Paul Sweeney. Reported, they are out, I guess. I tried Nathan. Terrifying. I really, really tried. Creating Nathan Hager, filling in on a really exciting day, Nathan. This is post fed, you're seeing a very strange reaction in the stock market. It feels like there isn't really a consensus on whether or not the terminal rate could go much, much higher as a chairman Powell is certainly suggesting in his press conference ever less bonds are selling across the spectrum or across maturities. There's a lot to digest here and when we have this kind of conundrum of where do we even start? There's only one person to bring into the conversation. That of course is Liz McCormick. She's our chief markets correspondent on the FX and rate space, writing a pretty interesting story about how the fed is still enemy number one for a lot of these Wall Street traders, Liz, thank you as always for joining us, it's hard to pick a place to start because there's so much going on here, but if 5% is no longer the terminal rate in March of 2023, as was priced in going into the meeting, how high can we go? Yeah, boy, it's like a brain spinning time, right? I think all bets are off now. How was just so crystal clear like, hey, the data we saw since last meeting means our rates that we're going to project are higher, and so the market is pricing, the terminal rate isn't interesting out to June. It's got about 5.2 ish now, right? So, and you don't see barely any cuts by the end of the year. So that's like fed higher, keeps going higher and is very slow to cut rates. So that's kind of a double problem for bond investors, right? High rates and sticky high rates. Yeah, it keeps getting pushed back and back and back. And now we're seeing the inversion on the twos ten year at 55 basis points. I'm looking at a chart on it where it's like a spread that we're not we haven't seen since the early days of the Reagan administration. It makes you wonder how much further the idea of long and deep recession could be going in the bond market. Well, yeah, that's totally interesting. And I think, you know, I have a Jersey in our Bloomberg. The I group had a note saying, you know, that inversion is going to go further, right? Beyond these like already like you're saying historic levels. And with the feds in a bind, right? I mean, Powell said yesterday, the kind of path to a soft landing is getting worse, but their backs to the wall with inflation high. So yeah, Nathan, it could be that they have to go so far and the recession may be a worse recession than it would have been, right? Because the system, look at the housing market. Luckily, I'm not buying a house now, but for your trades to over 7%. Liz, I asked this question to I think a source of yours actually Danielle dimartino booth who is a favorite of our show. We talked a little bit about this comment that chairman Powell had made in his press conference. He said, well, the risk of over tightening is actually perhaps not that bad and I'm paraphrasing, of course, but he says we can always take a U turn. We can always kind of use the tools in our toolbox and cut rates. If we go too far. But Liz, in an environment where the Federal Reserve has gotten a lot of scrutiny for using those rates. And for quantitative easing as well, is there perhaps some hurdles for chairman Powell to actually cut rates when the time comes? Yeah, I mean, you're right. It's a good point. And I really like Danielle, like you said, too. But yeah, I mean, it's not so easy, right? He seemed to say, well, now, and he said in the past, it was vice versa, but now like you said, he said the risks are, you know, we let inflation stay too long. And that's a problem. So we can always cut rates, but you're right. You know, they're in a situation where it may not be that easy, especially, you know, creating them to kind of redeploy QE. There's a lot of political pushback against that, right? So I don't think he's got it too easy on either way, you know? Yeah, if they turn around too soon and if they were to pivot, which they definitely didn't yesterday and they let inflation get too bad, then they got to double down and then how you could again. But I think you're right that it may not be too easy if they crush this economy just to quickly revive it. So could things get worse before they get better next year for the fed Liz? Well, I think sadly we should all not look at our retirement accounts now. I think it's going to get worse for everything. Stocks are obviously taking it on the chin, the bond markets down, we've had that 60 40. There was no place to hide in the last year or two. And if the fed, we've got two CPI reports before their next meeting. If they're still strong, I mean, nothing will change as far as them seeming hawkish. So I think rates could go higher. This kind of 60, 40 paying could last and I'm not an equity analyst. I'm just saying, you know, what I see on the screens, but yeah, and you know, that's what they need, even though senators like Elizabeth Warren are saying we don't want too much pain, but Powell saying, sadly, we're going to have to have some pain for the American people. Otherwise, the pain could be worse if we have inflation for years and years entrenched. Liz 30 seconds here, the bull case for the dollar does it turn around or does it decrease the minute there is actually some sort of stalling out on the terminal rate. Well, wow, the bull case for the dollar, which was maybe seeming to kind of falter a little. It just got supercharged, right? But I think if the terminal rate keeps getting pushed higher and you have other central banks like the B of B today saying, hey, pull back your peak rates, you've got this divergence. So I think for now, there's not a lot to stop the dollar higher unless we get like two really soft CPIs, which I'm not predicting. Certainly something to watch. Liz McCormick our chief global macro markets correspondent. We thank you, as always, really the one and only name you have to ask when this kind of wonkiness takes place not

Bloomberg news Charlie Pelé Nathan Paul Sweeney chairman Powell Nathan Hager Liz McCormick Liz Charlie Powell fed Danielle dimartino booth Reagan administration San Francisco
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:44 min | 9 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In business, podcast. I think it's probably the most popular podcast coming out of the Bloomberg complex. He's also chairman and chief investment officer at holtz wealth management. Barry, we had our Federal Reserve crystal clear yesterday in their attention about where rates are going. We wake this morning to see banks around the world kind of following suit, what do you make of this rate environment? What do you make of this economy here? Again, the Federal Reserve said, if you weren't paying attention to Jackson hole, you better be paying attention now. Yeah. You had to say very least. I think the first time they went 75 basis points, they got everybody's attention. But, you know, here is the needle they're trying to thread. Most of what we see in terms of inflation and especially on the goods side are all pandemic lockdown reopening supply chain snafus, which normally just are not responsive to interest rates. That's not what drives those problems. And so the fed says, hey, if you're not going to respond to interest rates, well then how are you going to respond to a recession? And that seems to be the plan to reduce demand so much that they cause enough of an economic contraction to end inflation. I think it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives inflation, but I've disagreed with the fed. They are a permanent part of the investment world. And rather than just tilt it, the windmill, you have to incorporate them into your approach. Dude, do you know what Danielle dimartino booth told us yesterday? And she repeated it again this morning was that Jay Powell has an ulterior motive. It's not just about inflation, he wants the break the back of the fed put. This market expectation that every time there's a problem, the fed is going to come to the stock market's rescue. I don't know, I thought when in 2008 and 9, the market fell 57%, that kind of was the end of the fed Porter or was it a technology in quantitative easing? Yeah, and the technology stocks falling 81% peak to trough in 2000. You know, George Collin used to do a routine about Indian fighters and said, it's not that they're bad fighters, just because they started off defending Boston and ended up in Santa Monica. And that's kind of how I feel about the fed put. It's a great put as long as you don't mind the occasional 56 or 80% crash. It doesn't seem like much of a put to me. And I've always thought Danielle isn't running money. So this isn't directed at her, but I always thought the fed put was a fantastic excuse from underperforming managers to explain. We would have had a great year if it wasn't for that damn Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. So what do you think, how do you think these markets are going to play out from here? I mean, are we just going to tread water, trend it down, grind, lower until we get a sense of, all right, this is the recession. This is the bottom, the next move is up. A gun lock said we're going to go down 20% in equities if we get to four and a half percent. Yesterday, Powell said 4.6% is likely and kind of hinted that he's headed towards 5. So here's really the question and, you know, most institutions that rely on forecasts don't do an especially good job and the Federal Reserve is now exception. They failed to recognize when they should have moved off an emergency footing. They were late to recognize inflation, and they're probably going to be late to recognize when they've done enough to stop inflation. So the question is, are they going to make a policy error? Will it be a small error? Will it be a large error? And really, the data that's going to come out and I know we're all sick to death at the term data dependent. The data over the next couple of months are going to determine, are they going to over tighten or are they going to wildly over Titan? Keep in mind by many measures, the fed has been too accommodative for too long. But it didn't matter when we were in a deflationary regime. And now we are in maybe transitory has become a dirty word. We are in a temporary multiyear inflationary regime and what comes next is going to really be dependent on how high they take rates. You know, we were talking to Greg Hahn earlier from winthrop capital management and he was talking about valuations, right? Because we're all looking to see what earnings are going to turn out to be in 2022, 2023 with margin compression and inflation is a problem blah, blah, but the point is the stock market puts a valuation on those earnings that we're expecting. And the valuation has been, I guess, historically high for years. He said, we haven't been undervalued in 15 years. What do you think is the right valuation? So, you know, I think that valuation is thought of almost like a snapshot and you really have to consider it more in terms of a video of a moving picture. In the beginning of secular bull markets, like the one that began in 1982, or the one that began in 2013, stocks tend to be kind of cheap. They tend to be somewhat unloved. And at the end of a bull market, stocks get pretty pricey and are overloved. And 82 to 2000 is my favorite example. The bulk of the gains came not because profits improved, but because earnings multiple expanded from 7 X in the beginning to 32 X at the end, 75% of the gains in that bull market were due not to earnings, but to those multiple expansions. And so if you're trying to pick what is the right PE, PEs are always wrong except for that brief moment, either as markets are running up or as they're coming down when markets value, but it's an instant increasing valuations are because of increasing investor sentiment, more money around, improving revenue and profits, and decreasing valuation is when the opposite happens. So fair value is the wrong way to look at equities. It's where are we in that cycle of improving investor sentiment and expanding multiples or worsening sentiment and contracting multiples? Barrier podcast masters and business who's coming up next. I have an amazing guess this weekend. Steve

Federal Reserve holtz wealth management Danielle dimartino booth Jay Powell George Collin Jerome Powell Barry Jackson Greg Hahn winthrop capital management Santa Monica Danielle Boston Powell
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:14 min | 11 months ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"You very much with the Bloomberg business flash out of San Francisco. Now, as we've been focused on today, more high well, high is an understatement. More massive inflation prints with the PPI coming out at 11.3. Yesterday we had the CPI out at 9.1. Let's talk with someone who can maybe offer you a solution in terms of the right hedge. David auerbach joins us right now managing director from armada ETF advisers and the cool thing is David with you and my co anchor pretty good. I can say, it's great to have you all here. Yeah. Definitely is. David got his BA at Texas. Did he? And his MBA at SMU. Well, the only reason he's telling me that is because for your information, David and for our entire audience, is my brother actually went to SMU. I grew up near SME. I'm a Dallas Dallas gal. I spent a few years hitting the bars around SMU. That's the same thing as getting my favorite places highland park, one of my favorite places to hang out. Let's get back to, well, actually it's really a real estate and partly residential story that you have for us, David, right? Because you think this is a great way to hedge against inflation. Absolutely. And thanks so much for having me. Really appreciate it and love the Dallas ties that's so cool. We take a very unique approach at armada. When we launched the home appreciation U.S. 3D TF in March, we had this view that we're building our fund on two fund principles. Number one, where people relocating across the country and then which of the residential REIT segments are benefiting from that relocation. From where we sit, we know that real estate is personal. If there's one thing that the three of us all have in common is that we're very fortunate enough to go to sleep with a roof over our head. Whether we lived in an apartment, we rent a house where we live is home. And that home is the most important investment decision that you make every single day. And as you mentioned about inflation, well, we know that interest rates are going up 75 basis points lock it in for sure, most likely a hundred at this rate, but what that means is that cost of that mortgage now gets more expensive. You have to come more to the table with the down payment. And so that's going to affect many first time home buyers and those that are probably in the market right now trying to buy that house. And for so many people, it's just been impossible, right? I mean, not only were they priced out of the market when mortgage rates were cheap. Now they have no chance of getting in. I know a lot of people just anecdotally who can't buy a house and I know people who can't sell a house because the buyers just can't afford it now, is that going to change? You know, I would say in the back half of the year, we would see some moderation, but frankly, I also think part of the place into that whole number one rule of real estate location location location. If you go talk to folks that are in Nashville or Charlotte or in Austin, they may have a different perspective right now, my neighbor across the street sold his house within a week here in Dallas and almost got full offer on his property. And so I think there are pockets that you're still seeing massive, massive strength, but the bigger problem here is that we all know there is a massive supply demand in balance in the housing markets. There's just not enough housing inventory to satisfy the amount of demand that's out there. David, is that going to change? I want to bring up another Texan that we're going to have on a little bit later on the show. Danielle dimartino booth. Whom you may know, she advised the fed and wrote a book called fed up. She advised the Dallas fed. She has said it's possible that we have a glut next year of housing and cars because so many people are trying to fill this void. What do you think about that possibility? You know, I don't know about that glutton necessarily. Again, the part of the problem is that air quitting is that affordable housing product that starter house doesn't exist anymore for those first time home buyers. But instead, you're seeing this plethora of single-family rental platforms from like invitation homes, American homes for rent. There is a tricon. There's a lot of single-family rental properties that are out there. One other point, employment growth is driving household formation. We know that the employment market is still strong with a three handle on the unemployment rate as a result, again, with inflation going up, gas prices are up and if you're an apartment landlord, you're still knocking on your tenants door on the first of the month saying, where's my rent? Many of these apartment companies as an example are reporting double digit year over year NOI growth rental growth, strong quarterly sequential growth. We're going into the summer prime leasing season for these apartment guys that are 97, 98, 99% occupied. And so again, it plays back into that thesis of where you live is that most important investment decision that you make for yourself for your family and for your kids. David, we got about a minute here. This is a trend that's not going away anytime soon. Do you foresee any sort of pop of the housing bubble anytime in our near future? If there is going to be, I think, a lot that's going to be dictated on future increases of the interest rates. We know obviously this next one is there going to be more down the road this year because that will play into the home price appreciation and the moderation of the housing market going forward. But again, with us focused on house, our ETF here, we're just trying to take it on a quarter by quarter basis, taking the news that's coming at us from the government Fannie Mae Redfin, Zillow, Bloomberg, all the sources that are kind of telling us where the housing market is headed. And right now, I will tell you from where we sit, we really don't see that letting up until maybe like I said back half of this year maybe into next year. All right, David, thanks so much for joining us, great having you all on this morning. David auerbach managing director at armada ETF advisers talking to us about possible inflation hedges. He would suggest one, which is their home appreciation, U.S. REIT, the ticker is house. Spelled in German, HA U.S. and you can

SMU David Dallas David auerbach armada ETF Danielle dimartino booth Dallas fed San Francisco Texas Texan U.S. Nashville Charlotte Austin fed Fannie Mae Redfin Zillow Bloomberg German
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:59 min | 1 year ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Vince on he can talk any currency any commodity any asset and he's traded it at some point during his career We're going to talk to him But first let's go to Nathan Hager and get a Bloomberg business naked A lot of investors to chew on right now Paul sweetie We had the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for the rest of this year By three tenths percent after an earlier drop in April we also got a warning from Goldman Sachs strategists that rising equity yields could be a continued headwind for equity valuations but you look at the tenure right now it's actually the yield there is falling now below 3% You got stocks moving higher The S&P up 11 points to gain a three tenths percent the Dow is higher by 42 points for a game of one tenth of 1% The tech heavy NASDAQ leading the games up a half percent up 63 points All eyes on next week's policy meeting from the Federal Reserve markets all but totally pricing in two 50 basis point moves This month and next we spoke moments ago with Danielle dimartino booth CEO of quill intelligence she says watch for what fed chair Jay Powell and company signal for the months to come I think they had their eye on getting to that third 50 basis point rate hike in front of us in September and achieving that almost $100 billion a month run runoff rate for the balance sheet I think they're going to try and communicate that in this coming weeks meeting Man right now stocks as I mentioned are moving higher treasury yields moving lower the barrel and IMAX crude is at a $119 45 cents a gain of 8 tenths percent their comb ex gold up 6 tenths percent of $10 60 cents at 1854 30 announced the Euro is at 1.0704 against the dollar British pound 1.2580 the end one 32.44 That's a Bloomberg business flash Bloomberg markets continues Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller All right Nathan.

Nathan Hager Paul sweetie Danielle dimartino booth Vince quill intelligence Jay Powell Bloomberg World Bank Goldman Sachs fed S Paul Sweeney Matt Miller
"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:07 min | 1 year ago

"danielle dimartino booth" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Was the date in 1983 when the movie was released in theaters I'm Brian shook And I'm Charlie palette That Bloomberg world headquarters Elon Musk is now expressing doubt about whether he will succeed with his $43 billion offer to buy Twitter in his first public comments about the blockbuster deal The billionaire entrepreneur said at a tet event in Vancouver quote I'm not sure that I will actually be able to acquire it Earlier today must made a controversial offer to buy Twitter Dan Ives is an analyst with web bush securities This is a Game of Thrones And obviously once the situation happened with Twitter and the board and must not joining this became hostile situation Dan Ives of Wedbush and speaking of stepping it up what about the pace and size of Federal Reserve rate increases this year Danielle dimartino booth is chief strategist at quill intelligence People forget that this is a midterm election year And if there's one unwritten rule at the fed it's that you don't appear overtly political during election year Danielle dimartino booth of quill intelligence The deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund says the world needs to be preparing for downside scenarios relating to COVID-19 Gita gopinath is the IMF's first deputy managing director and she spoke with Bloomberg radio We need to prepare for that And that's the part where I think more needs to be done We need another 15 billion in grants this year to get the right amount of preparation in place and then 10 billion every year before pandemic preparedness Gita gopinath of the International Monetary Fund Stocks declined today with the S&P down 54 a drop of 1.2% for the week the S&P was down 2.4% the Dow today down 113 down three tenths NASDAQ down 292 down 2.1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Charlie palette This is Bloomberg.

Dan Ives Danielle dimartino Charlie palette Brian shook bush securities Twitter Wedbush Elon Musk Gita gopinath quill intelligence People Bloomberg fed COVID IMF Bloomberg radio Vancouver quill International Monetary Fund St