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Crypto News Alerts | Daily Bitcoin (BTC) & Cryptocurrency News
A highlight from 1401: FIDELITY: Bitcoin Will Hit $1 Billion Per Coin By This Date
"In today's show, we're going to be discussing Bitcoin ignoring the CPI and FTX as the price action hit us a September high of $26 ,600 as the bulls are back in control. We'll also be discussing the court approving the sale of FTX digital assets, meaning the assets will be sold off weekly with special handling for Bitcoin and Ethereum and insider affiliate tokens. Also breaking news just in, Congressman Tom Emmer launches an anti -surveillance state act with 49 Republicans in a new push against CBDCs, central bank digital currencies. Also the SEC chairman Gary Gensler says crypto is a field rife with fraud, abuse, misconduct. It's daunting. We'll also be discussing breaking news, $800 billion asset manager Deutsche Bank partners to offer Bitcoin custody for institutions. Let's go. It virtually means that the bank can now hold crypto directly for its clients. Also in today's episode, we'll be discussing, can the Bitcoin price achieve fidelities? $1 billion price target by 2038. That's right, the $4 .5 trillion asset manager is predicting that one Bitcoin will eventually be worth $1 billion per coin. We'll also be taking a look at the overall crypto market, all this plus so much more in today's show. Yo, what's good crypto fam? This is first and foremost, a video show. So if you want the full premium experience with video, visit my YouTube channel at cryptonewsalerts .net. Again that's cryptonewsalerts .net. With that being shared fam, welcome to everyone just joining us. This is pod episode number 1401. So let's fricking go. Today is September 14, 2023 and the crypto market is back in the green. Shout out to everyone out there in the live chat. It's good to see the entire Bitcoin fam. So yeah, let's kick it off with our market watch. As you can see, Bitcoin is trading back above $26 ,600. We also have Ether trading back above $1 ,600 and virtually most all the major cryptos are in the green minus BNB barely in the red. And checking out coinmarketcap .com, the current crypto market cap sits just north of $1 trillion with $28 billion in volume in the past 24 hours, but the Bitcoin dominance at 49 .2 % and the Ether dominance at 18 .6%. So yeah, checking out the top 100 crypto gainers of the past 24 hours. We have Axly Infinity leading the pack trading at $4 .73 up 11 % followed by ThorChain up 5 .5 % trading at $1 .65 followed by Conflux up a modest 5 % trading just above or I should say just shy of 12 cents. And checking out the top 100 crypto gainers for the past week, we can see virtually everything is in the green minus a handful including Scamcoin FTT down 5%. Axly Infinity leading the pack here as well up 12%. And as you can see, the alts are pumping. That's what's up. How many of you took advantage of this recent price dip? Let me know. And how many of you are gonna be hodling into the next Bitcoin halving, which is roughly six months out around the corner. Holla at your boy chat. I appreciate the interaction. At the end of the show, I'll be reading everyone's comments out loud. And how you doing today for Christ's sake? Holla at your boy. Don't be a stranger. And with that being shared, now let's dive into today's Bitcoin technical analysis. Check out the charts and what is popping with the King crypto. Here we go. Bitcoin hit new September highs after the September 14 daily close as markets digested macroeconomic as well as crypto. Industry news, which you can clearly see here in the Bitcoin one hour candle chart. Now data from Cointelegraph and TradingView tracked the Bitcoin price highs of 26 .5 over on Bitstamp and Bitcoin had shaken off the higher than expected US CPI the day prior, which we covered here in the show, maintaining that 26 ,000 support. Subsequent confirmation that the defunct exchange FTX had received legal permission to liquidate its remaining assets likewise failed to dent Bitcoin's comparatively solid intraday performance. And a little later in the show, I'll be sharing that ruling directly coming from the courts in regards to the FTX assets being sold. Now coming up to the range highs and once we flip these levels, we can look to finally get into a safe position and long since popular crypto trader, Crypto Tony and fellow analyst, Dan Crypto Trade suggests that the overall Bitcoin market dynamics have changed versus the period of weakness seen around the monthly close. Quoting this gentleman here, market feels different this week. The dips are being bought up relatively quick and while the price keeps sweeping highs, it keeps crawling itself back and leaving the lows untouched. The spot bid is also stronger than the past few weeks, might be wrong, but I am optimistic. Let me know if you agree to disagree with the analyst and additional analysis predicts that the longer term Bitcoin price breakout should US regulators approve a Bitcoin spot ETF or which we all know is inevitable over the coming months. He also says that BTC .d is still holding on the previous range high, which is the Bitcoin dominance chart and in the CHOP region, but ultimately says, I think this would go higher in case of a Bitcoin ETF approval one day. Yeah, that's right. They can only push it back and delay it for so long. I believe the next day they have to acknowledge it is in October and more than likely Gensler and the SEC is gonna push it back till next year. That's just my two Satoshi's. Let me know your thoughts, fam. Now more cautious was Trader Sku who referenced the on -chain volume prime to cool once more after the relief rally, quitting him here. The daily structure looks fairly good here and decreasing volumes. So could definitely be looking towards a relief rally before lower as the commentary read, noting the Bitcoin was still holding the key 25 ,000 level. Now with Bitcoin up just 1 % month to date at this time, Bitcoin is nonetheless on course for its best performing September and years. As we know, it's usually September, pun intended. According to data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, the last time Bitcoin gained in September was all the way back in 2016. That's like holy moly, seven years ago, fam. That year was its best on record at a modest 6 % while its biggest red September bear month was two years prior when it lost a whopping 19%. Talk about total bloodshed, right, fam? Now in 2022, Bitcoin shed 3 % before climbing another 5 % in October, which is a popular month amongst the bulls who informally referred to it as Uptober. So hopefully, God willing, we have another Uptober here right around the corner as we're already halfway through with September. With that being shared, fam, let me know your thoughts and outlook on the current landscape of the crypto market. Do you feel we're likely to correct lower or do you think we'll continue rising back towards that $30 ,000 level psychological resistance? Let me know, chat. And now let's break down our next story of the day and discuss the latest judgment coming from the courts regarding the FTX asset sales. Here we have it. This is just in, the Delaware Bankruptcy Court approved the sale of FTX digital assets. We have Judge John Dorsey who made the ruling at a hearing yesterday, September 13th. Major changes were made to the draft order authorizing the sale the previous day. Now as you know, there's been a lot of FUD of people talking about all the assets, billions of dollars worth of crypto is gonna get dumped and it's going to wreck the market. Well, there are some caveats, so it's important I share them here. FTX will be allowed to sell the digital assets excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, and certain insider affiliated tokens in weekly batches through an investment advisor under pre -established guidelines. There will be limits of $50 million for the first week and $100 million in subsequent weeks. There will be an option to increase the limit with prior written approval of the creditors committee and ad hoc committee or to raise the limit to 200 million weekly with the approval of the court. So they can't dump it all at one time which is good for the bulls, right? Now Bitcoin and Ether and insider affiliate tokens can be sold through a separate decision by FTX. After 10 days notice to the committee and the US trustee, the US trustee is appointed by the US Department of Justice. Now I'm curious what those insider affiliate tokens are. If I was to guess, I'd guess FTT, that scam coin, Bankman Fried created out of thin air and I'd also throw Solana in there, but what are your thoughts, fam? Let me know. Those sales will also be conducted through an investor advisor. Information about the sales will be subject to professionalize only and confidentially restrictions with a redacted version accessible to the public. The sales will be subject to written objection by the committees and the US trustee. And in that case, the sales will be delayed until the objections are overcome or the court orders a sale. Quoting Bak Ubu here, FTX adapts crypto sale plan to address the US government concerns. FTX, the bankrupt crypto exchange is making changes to its proposal for selling billions in crypto assets. That's right. And I just broke down ultimately what you need to know. The conditions on the latter sales were added in the draft submitted September 12th, a couple of days ago. They were regarded as cautionary moves to ensure the market stability during the influx of FTX assets. Some observers noted that the sales will represent only a small portion of the trading volume and may not have a heavy impact. But according to a recent shareholder update, FTX has $833 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum collectively. FTX can enter into hedging arrangements using Bitcoin and ETH with the private approval of committees and can use them for staking according to the guidelines. The FTX token, as we know, is FTT, cannot be sold without further court authorization. Well, good for them. Glad to hear they're not authorized to sell their scam coin and dump it onto the market. That's definitely a good sign, wouldn't you think? Now let's break down the next breaking story of the day. Gotta give respect and credit where it is due. We have US Congressman Tom Emmer who made a very strong anti -CBDC stance and we know that's the central bank digital currencies which the central bankers are gonna be rolling out and I know their pilots have already began rolling out around the world. So let's discuss this anti -CBDC push because I'm all for anti -CBDC. That's why I promote Bitcoin every day here on the pod. Bitcoin is the antidote to the CBDC. Let me know if you understand what I'm saying. Now Congressman Tom Emmer is leading the reintroduction of the bill that aims to prevent the Federal Reserve from creating a digital dollar. God bless him. Emmer says on the social media platform X that if it isn't designed to emulate cash, then a CBDC would dismantle the American's right to financial privacy while also emboldening the administrative state. Facts. The majority whip says that the new bill attempts to prohibit the Fed from issuing a retail CBDC while protecting innovation and any future development of true digital cash. This bill puts a check on unelected bureaucrats and ensures the US digital currency policy upholds our American values of privacy, individual sovereignty and free market competitiveness. The administration has made it clear. President Biden is willing to compromise the American people's right to financial privacy for surveillance style CBDC. I don't believe in compromising American rights. That's the bottom line. If not open, permissionless and private like cash, a CBDC is nothing more than a CCP, which we all know stands for, right? Style surveillance tool that will be weaponized to oppress the American way of life. Preach. I couldn't have said it any better myself. I stand by what he is saying because I know it's fact. Now while official, the concrete plans for the CBDC haven't been released by the US government as opposition has already formed, which is a good sign. We also have US candidates who are running for the presidential election next year in 2024, including current governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, who is running as a Republican. And we also have Kennedy Jr. who is running as a Democrat who are both pro Bitcoin and anti CBDC. So we must stand strong and oppose these weapons of financial mass destruction, which are better known as CBDCs. So again, much respect to the congressmen and those making this push. Now last month we also had Ohio Republican Warren Davidson said the CBDCs pose an existential threat to the Western civilization and was committed to fighting against them. Davidson said that he wants to prohibit the CBDCs because they threaten other digital assets like Bitcoin and impede the development of the beneficial financial technology. Facts, quitting him here. Central bank digital currency poses a serious threat, tall digital assets, as I said, at flyover FinTech. Many people wrongfully conflate even Bitcoin with a CBDC. Ignorance is bliss, huh? At least most agree that CBDC is evil, the financial equivalent of the Death Star. Great reference to Star Wars there. Don't become an accomplice to anyone designing, building, testing, developing, or establishing CBDC. Banning a CBDC is essential to the American's FinTech future. So there you have it. What are your thoughts on CBDCs if they roll out, which more than likely they're going to eventually at a theater near you, are you going to participate in them, is the million dollar question. What if they give you a stimulus and they promise you, we're gonna give every American $5 ,000 of this digital dollar, AKA CBDC, central bank Ponzi scheme currency. What are you gonna do about it? I say just say no to Bitcoin, or I'm sorry, just say no to CBDCs and fight it with the antidote, which is Bitcoin, by simply stacking stats today and preparing yourself so that you can fight the tyrants who are trying to take over our country. Just saying, fam, let me know if that resonates with you. And with that being shared, now let's break down our next story of the day and discuss the latest with Mr. Gary Gensler, the chairman of the SEC and what they recently shared with Congress regarding cryptocurrencies and enforcement. Here we go. The chairman of the SEC, everyone's favorite huckster, Gary Gensler talked about cryptocurrency during his testimony before the US Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs on Tuesday, two days ago. Reiterating his views that most crypto tokens are securities, Gensler told the lawmakers without prejudging any one token, the vast majority of crypto tokens likely meet the investment contract test. Given that most crypto tokens are subject to the security laws, it follows that most crypto intermediaries have to comply with the security laws as well, quoting the chief right here. In terms of crypto, I've been around finance for 44 years now, and I've never seen a field that is so rife with misconduct. It is just, it's daunting. He further described the crypto industry right now. Unfortunately, he says there's significant noncompliance and it's a field which is rife with fraud abuse as well as misconduct. Now the Senator Bill Hagerty asked Gensler during the hearing what the SEC needs to see from issuers to approve a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Wouldn't you say that's a great question? Following the recent court ruling in favor of the grayscale investments, now the court found that the securities regulator, denial of grayscale Spot Bitcoin ETF app, was arbitrary and that the SEC Chairman Gensler replied with the following, we're still reviewing that decision. We have multiple filings around Bitcoin ETF products, so it is not just the one you mentioned, but there's multiple others. We are reviewing them and I am looking forward to the staff's recommendations. So there you have it. How do you feel this will likely play out regarding the regulators and crypto choke point 2 .0 as it continues? Do you think it'll keep pushing innovation outside the United States? Or do you feel that it's just a matter of time and Gensler's no longer gonna be able to push back these deadlines for the SEC approvals? Because we all know once the Spot Bitcoin ETFs get the green light from the regulator, it's game on. There's literally trillions upon trillions of dollars right now sitting on the sideline just waiting for that freaking approval. And if it wasn't for the SEC, we'd already had a Bitcoin Spot ETF a decade ago because that's how long they've been denying them, right? In fact, the very first Bitcoin ETF application was submitted by the Winklevoss twins of the Gemini exchange literally over a decade ago. And while they keep approving these futures ETFs which aren't in the investors best interest, but to keep pushing back the Spot ETFs which benefit everyone makes no logic except they're doing what they do because that's what they do and let's leave it at that. And with that being shared, fam, now let's break down the latest breaking news regarding Deutsche Bank. This is big news coming from another major institution and then I'll be breaking down the $1 billion fidelity price prediction for the King Crypto. That's right, they're saying that one Bitcoin will eventually be worth $1 billion per coin and then we'll dive into our live Q &A. So yeah, here we go, breaking news just in. The German bank, Deutsche Bank, was one of the handful of companies to invest in a $65 million Series B fundraising round for tourists in February of this year. The company offers enterprise -grade infrastructure to issue managed custody and trade, cryptocurrencies, tokenized assets, as well as NFTs and other digital assets. Let's go. Now according to Taurus' co -founder, Lamin, the partnership underwent a thorough and very detailed due diligence process before the German bank decided to use its infrastructure services, quoting them here. It started end of 2021 and ended somewhere in 2022. We won the deal a couple of quarters ago and as previously reported, Deutsche Bank has been brewing plans to offer crypto custody and trading services to its clients over the past three years, since 2020. The bank most recently applied for a digital asset custody license from Germany's financial regulator, Baffin, in June of this year, as it continues plans to offer its customers access to crypto markets as well as assets. Now brain, aka, confirm, whoever that is, the agreement is global in scope with tourists providing custody and tokenization tech in line with the local regulatory requirements. Let's get it. Good stuff. And I appreciate the live chat right now. I am tuned in and checking you guys out. Much love. Any questions, feel free to drop them. And again, at the end of our premiere story with Fidelity, we're gonna be reading those comments out loud. Anyways, announcing the partnership, Deutsche Bank Global Security Services head, Paul Maly, said that crypto space is expected to grow to trillions of dollars of assets and is likely to become a priority for investors and institutions. Preach, that's a given, right? Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank's asset management arms, DWS Group, had reportedly been in discussions to invest in two different German -based crypto firms in February of this year. This includes crypto exchange -traded product provider, Deutsche Digital Assets, and market maker, platform, Tradius, Deutsche Bank Singapore, and Memento Blockchain also recently completed a proof of concept called Project DOMA, which stands for Digital Asset Management Access, which allows for the management of digital funds and tokenized securities. And founded in Switzerland in 2018, Taurus' Series B round was led by Credit Suisse and included the likes of Deutsche Bank alongside Arab Bank Switzerland, indicating major interest from traditional financial banks. Let's go. The announcement of its Series B round also clearly outlined Taurus' aim to serve tier one banks in Europe. And they also told Cointelegraph that the platform serves close to 30 banks, with most deals going beyond cryptos to including tokenization of equity debt as well as other products. Deutsche Bank is set to offer customers crypto custody options through a partnership with the cryptocurrency infrastructure platform, Taurus. Now obviously, this is a major, major deal when you have a $800 billion asset manager, such as Deutsche Bank, partnering to offer Bitcoin custody for institutions around the world. The bank can now officially hold crypto directly for their clients. So there we have it. Another one bites the dust. And now for the moment you have all been waiting for. Let's discuss this $4 .5 trillion asset manager, Fidelity, which I believe, correct me if I'm wrong, is the second largest asset manager in the world, next to BlackRock that controls over 10 trillion in assets under management. They're predicting, their head of global macro, Julian Timmer is predicting that the Bitcoin price hit $1 billion per coin. So let's break this down, shall we? And then we'll dive into our live Q &A. Here we go. Fidelity's prediction for Bitcoin. We have Julian Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, put forth the notion that Bitcoin, the king crypto, has the potential to reach a value of $1 billion per BTC in roughly two decades, specifically around the year 2038. So there you have it. Right now we're in 2023. So what is that? Roughly like 15 years out. To supply the forecast, Timmer employed a combo of models and charts with particular focus on the stock to flow model and his own demand model. These analytic tools form the foundation for his primary prediction. And speaking of stock to flow, massive shout out to Plan B, creator of the Bitcoin stock to flow model. Now he believes, along with the stock to flow, the data, which doesn't lie, that the Bitcoin price is subject to hit between 100 ,000 and a million dollars after the halving in 2024. Let me know if you agree or disagree with the stock to flow prediction. And now we'll get back to this analysis from Julian Timmer of Fidelity. The above demand model employs Metcalfe's law, and according to the numbers of its users, grows linearly, the network's value, or interfiends, the Bitcoin price, grows geometrically. This means that the utility of the adoption of Bitcoin are expected to grow more rapidly compared to its network of users, exchanges, ATMs, and participating retailers. Therefore, this model predicted that the Bitcoin price will reach $1 million, which is seven figures, by the year 2030. Now I'd also like to throw out there, we also have Cathie Wood of ARK Invest predicting a $1 million Bitcoin price by the year 2030. In fact, if you've been following my show, then you know her bear case scenario is over a quarter million per BTC in 2030, her base case is over 600 ,000, and her bullish case is $1 .48 million per BTC. There's other big analysts and financial institutions as well, just as bullish as Cathie Wood. So I just wanted to throw that out there that there's others in agreement with Jurien Timmer thus far on this Bitcoin price prediction. So yeah, in contrast, Timmer's stock to flow supply model noted the event of significant price surges during each halving event. Consequently, when considering this model in conjunction with the other factors, it foresees a Bitcoin price range of $1 million to $10 million for Bitcoin defined by the year 2030. Timmer's demand model is more inclined towards reflecting the bottom of the Bitcoin price. But on the other hand, the stock to flow model seemed to provide a better approximation for the peak of Bitcoin. However, it's worth noting that the disparity between these two models widened significantly beyond the year 2030, which is where things get interesting. The reason behind this gap is expected to be the changing value of the dollar, as many, many economists are anticipating the crash of the dollar in which Jurien Timmer is as well. So Timmer proposes that the value of the dollar undergoes fluctuations over time when compared to other traditional assets. For instance, if just $1 was invested into the stocks during the 18th century, its present -day value would be roughly $4 billion. You mean to tell me $1 invested into stocks in the 18th century is now worth $4 billion? That tells you everything you need to know about fiat currency, folks. Now similarly, Timmer implied that if $1 million was invested today, it can grow to $1 billion in just a span of 20 years. This further revealed that the purchasing power of the dollar has significantly reduced due to factors like inflation and depreciation, and let's not forget, money printer continued to go. Just saying. Thus, Timmer's statement implied that keeping a fixed amount of dollars for many years may lead to a reduced purchasing power due to the assets' changing value, and over the last few years, an increasing number of are companies taking over the $1 trillion market cap, and as a result, it's foreseeable that in the next two decades, the concept of a trillion -dollar valuation will become more common. Yes, right, so much that individuals themselves could be worth a trillion dollars or even more. The scale of numbers may even reach the quadrillion range. Like, whoa, so is this milestone still achievable for Bitcoin is the million -dollar question. So despite Bitcoin's historical growth, it had recently faced a significant setback. Bitcoin's network activity had diminished, and it had fallen behind in comparison to Cardano's network, for example, the number of active addresses in the Bitcoin market had experienced a notable decline when compared to the levels seen in 2021, but we also gotta note that we're currently in a bear market, past couple of years. We hit the cycle peak back in 2021, and we soared. Remember COVID era? Bitcoin dumped all the way down to like $3 ,500 range, and within a year, by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, we hit that all -time high, which is the current high of $69 ,000. So this just goes to show you how fast Bitcoin can climb during a bull market, and we know the past couple of years have been bearish as all hell, right, especially 2022. We had the collapse of Terra Luna. We had the collapse of FTX being the second largest crypto exchange at the time. There was mass contagion. Everything was impacted. We dropped to a new cycle low of 15 ,700, but I think the bottom is past us. What's your thoughts, chat? Do let me know in the comments so I can read those out loud here in a little bit, but let's finish up this prediction. The higher network activity, like increased transaction volume or active addresses, is viewed as a positive indicator for the growing adoption for Bitcoin. This can create a sense of confidence amongst investors, potentially leading to the rise in demand and positive effect on the price action, and although Timur's prediction may be considered far -fetched and lacks empirical evidence, it doesn't completely dismiss the possibility of Bitcoin reaching such levels. The concept of de -dollarization has gained stature, shifting global attention towards alternative currencies. The shift in focus is expected to drive the demand for assets like golden crypto, such as Bitcoin, and with BRICS pushing for the fall of the dollar, the BRICS currency and Bitcoin are expected to garner continued momentum. So there you have it, fam. What are your thoughts surrounding this whopping $1 billion price prediction for the king crypto by the year 2038? Do you think it's realistic? And before we even got to that billion prediction, what about $1 million by the year 2030? Do you think this is realistic? Do you think this is a pipe dream? Do you think this is conservative? What's your honest thoughts? And where do you feel the dollar is likely to go over the course of the next few years? Do you think it will not even be in existence and will be replaced by the digital version, which is the CBDCs, central bank digital currencies that Congressman Tom Emmer and many others are warning you about? Let me know your honest thoughts. And don't forget to check out cryptonewsalerts .net for the full premium experience with video and to participate in the live Q &A. And I look forward to seeing you on tomorrow's episode. HODL.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Amanda rebello of DWS group. MSCI recently said they're going to change the way they grade, I guess other funds, are they making changes to their index as well? So as far as we know they're not making changes to their indices, the data universe is always evolving for them. So as they kind of update all of the individual data points and then this then feeds in when we have the index rebalances which then get executed inside the funds. But great news actually, I think, in terms of them further enhancing their ESG rating methodology for funds, I think this only helps investors more. It is ESG. I mean, it was such a huge draw for a while. And then there has been backlash recently at least in the U.S.. I'm not sure if it's backlash against ESG specifically, but against that as an investment product. Is it coming back? I mean, is it here to stay? I think in the long run it is here to say, when we look at where markets are, I think maybe it's not at the forefront of investors mind like it was before. They're more concerned with generating returns generating yield, reducing volatility in their portfolio. Those things should be aligned though, right? Yeah, and the thing is actually in reality they are. So I think that what we're seeing more and more is that clients start to use, especially that governance piece and ESG for risk reduction for drawdown reduction, so it's funny because actually we were just talking about this. The due diligence sessions that we do with some of the largest investors globally beforehand ESG would be like a little ten minutes segment in that kind of one day agenda and now it's intrinsic and pretty much all of the different segments. Hear the full conversation on the latest edition of a tape podcast. Subscribe on Apple Spotify and anywhere else you
CryptoCompare
Market Analysis Report 09 Feb 2023
"10 a.m. Thursday, February 9th, 2023 market analysis report February 9th, 2023. Coinbase CEO psyched rumors of U.S. crypto staking band kraken faces SEC probe over unregistered securities Deutsche Bank's DWS in talks to invest in two crypto firms.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Happen in 2023 has already happened by February 1st. I think we're already at yearend targets. So what do you think? I mean, this first month of the year, is that a, is this a technical snapback in some of these asset classes or is this the beginning of a turnaround? I've been wondering the same thing about equities because we've seen tech. We've seen consumer discretionary. We've seen telecoms. They've been the best performers. Meanwhile, the defensive industries, utilities, and real estate. They've been the worst performers, so either this market has some real bullish conviction or there's a lot of short covering going on from all the tax haven selling that happened at the end of last year and you know a lot about that, right? And then get back in this year. I think it's a combination of, like you said, tax law selling RSI is being incredibly stretched and technical levels being oversold. You look at any indicator bull bear indices you could blame half a dozen. Everything was just incredibly bearish and negative. And coming in this year to start, you're seeing systematic CTA demand for sure, you're seeing short covering a declining vix lower than expected new issue activity and credit. And quite frankly, the move index or the rates index, there's another Bloomberg function for you. Easing quite a bit. And also not helpful to the fed, by the way. And within that narrative, it is creating a good updraft here, and I believe very much on a technical basis. As you start where you're going to go next in equities, 18 X, 19 X, and this is in a year where earnings estimates are in its growth or flat quite frankly, and that's including energy, take energy out, the picture gets much more oblique. So you're really paying a premium right now. So we have three more hours, right? Until the fed, let's wrap it up. What do you expect from Jerome Powell today? To walk a tightrope, but still have to lean hawkish. If you're the fed, this is not what you want to see right now. At all, an easing of financial conditions with more room to go in as far as disinflation. So they have more work to do. They can not afford to show any weakness right now. So what are your traders on your desk at DWS? You're down at 52nd street, third avenue. Come visit us. Yeah, absolutely. Well, you can come visit us because you're so close. What do they do on a day like today? What did they just calm down until 2 o'clock? Positioning is light going into this. Yeah. So you don't want to front run this too much because of an expected surprises or something that could come out of left field. So get some more coffee, throw in a fat lip and just chill until two, right? It's almost as if you have cameras on our desk because that's exactly hey, you guys are global firm as you mentioned. 30 seconds, what do you mean, what do you take away from China reopening? How does that play into what you guys are looking at? Sure. It's going to be net positive to both EM and global growth and I'd expect pent up demand at least initially to really come to the fore. So it is an opportunity. I think everyone was underweight this country. If you look back 6 months ago to what we were discussing earlier, everyone said, get out. So now you're seeing a kind of a rush back in. And I would just sort of be careful the property sector is still an issue there as well. So you want to certainly consider it. But not push all link. Yep. All right, good stuff. George country bone, not your bone. See how that did pretty well on that. Catch on bone. You just say it like it's spelled. COO and head of America's trading at DWS
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Others have done better or at least a regulated like utilities. So we do expect a lot of investment spending to come in this space. We have yet to really figure out, well, this would be good for investors and what time the type of return on investment we would get. I asked you the most basic question when it comes to the green energy area that now is going to get some subsidy from the U.S. government. Is that inflationary or deflationary? Depends on how if it brings down total energy prices that would be obviously not inflationary, right? In the meantime, if you say that it's creating by some accounts 9 million new jobs over time, of course, over a long period of time, you could say that that could have an impact on people having larger ability to spend and consume. But I think that's much longer term. I think in the short run, if it starts bringing down the cost overall cost of energy, that is good in terms of our worries about inflation. David Bianco of DWS group. Thank you so much, David, for being back with us. I'm signing specialist is going to be staying with us as we turn to a subject. She knows, particularly well, that's the World Economic Forum over in Davos, and they're holding it next week. We're going to look at it while it may be a bit different this year. That's next on Wall Street week. I'm Bloomberg. I'm Carol massar. In 1910, join us for the weekend edition of Bloomberg businessweek. This week, it's the year ahead issue and the cover story, the
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In reality a disillusioned American electorate quite plainly sternly reassessed the empty promises of 1992 and concluded unmistakably that the incumbent administration not only had presented itself in false economic colors as something new rather than an all too familiar throwback to the 1960s, but had been seriously off base and way out of touch with the changing times. Bill Clinton has been campaigning from the start against the 1980s. This week, the 80s won. That, of course, was Louis ruckus around Wall Street. Back in 1994, when a different president's first midterm election ended in a repudiation of his economic program, and the number one movie in America was interviewed with the vampire, while the number one song was I'll make love to you by boys to men. What a difference, 38 years makes. Some people expected a similar rejection of President Biden's second economic plans, but they didn't get it as the two parties fought to essentially a draw. And the Democrats are on a path to losing fewer midterm seats than any party in power in 20 years. Still with us our David Bianco of DWS and Laurie calvasina of RBC. So let me come back to you, Lori for a second. Let's talk about how you invest around what we're seeing right now. Given what's going on in the CPI, given some of the uncertainties about inflation. And for that matter geopolitics, how do you make investment decisions in this climate? So I think you still have to stick with the longer term trajectory, you know, kind of where you see the most opportunities longer term. I think that there is still a real case to be made for switching from the new economy back to the old economy areas like industrials, energy, financials, a lot of these areas still have very, very good valuations. I think on the more growth these side of the market, I think you want to be more selective. So we obviously saw things like communication services, a lot of the tech companies really rally pretty fiercely over the last couple of days. I think you still want to be careful there. So we like tech, we like things like software. We like things like semis, which look pretty washed out on earnings sentiment. But we'd be a little bit more cautious with some of the Internet related names. But it's a draw football analogy. That sounds like running off tackle three yards instead of throwing a long ball. You're not really betting on a lot of big growth in the near term. I think so. I think so. And you know, what we see when we look at different economic forecasts is the price we're likely to pay for a short shallow recession is subpar economic growth that follows. So think of something like half a percent 1%. That is an environment in which valuation will matter. So today, what do you think of that? I mean, is this a time to really dial it back some? What are you interested in as an investment opportunity? Well, toward the latter part of this week, we've gotten more defensively
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On Twitter, Lisa big win for travelers who are terrible at maths. You're a dollar parity. That's brilliant. That's brilliant. How do you start our package there? And end it with John Farrell. I don't know who made that decision, but we say, welcome to you. I'm Tom keen alongside Lisa bramlett. We are not David Weston, but we've had so much fun here on a Friday to bring you Wall Street week on Friday and of course into the weekend. Right now it is a joy to go into the trenches on Wall Street week of strategists and thinkers on Wall Street adjusting in real time. Laurie calvasina is the RBC capital markets. She is exquisite as small caps in mid caps and also the gyrations of the market. A lot of good work there, bouncing off the work in economics of time Purcell. David Bianco is an institution far too young for the years on Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, and now with DWS group America, so valuable, I think he walked out the door and they brought him back a second time. Two of you thrilled to have you on what is absolutely an oddest week in years. Laurie, we're equities removed from the turmoil in the other asset classes. I think they were a little bit this week, but frankly, I think they deserved a bit of a break after the year that we've had in the past couple of months that we've had. And look, I think investors on the equity side were also gearing up for earnings. And we were in a little bit of a holding pattern until we got to the end of the week. And financials, I mean, there was definitely interesting moves and financials today once we finally got through the kind of thing. You should always ask age this morning. David Bianco helped me there because in your research, you know what you say, the banks are of interest. But the banks are all varied. Which kind of bank is where investments should be today. The big banks, the ones that have sticky deposit bases, the ones that will benefit from the fed hiking and the continued third hiking. So it's not comfortable to own banks if we're perhaps heading into a recession. But even if we do have a recession, this is not going to be a deflationary type of financial crisis. I think the credit costs will be well behaved and the banks will do fine. How much our financials and idiosyncratic story versus a story of macroeconomics strength really because that really was the feeling when JPMorgan came out and over time it became something different. Well, it's a good question. And I do think when you have, it's financials are always a macro story. It's very difficult for financials not to be a sensitive to the macro and purely idiosyncratic. However, what's happening in the macro situation right now is inflation and the fed hiking. So who's the only beneficiary of interest rates going up? It's banks. Everybody else is worried about that, not just in terms of slowing economy and earnings and PE pressure, but banks benefit, at least with higher earnings from higher interest rates. So given that backdrop, Lori, and given the fact that you said that really, stocks were somewhat immune to the volatility we were seeing in other asset classes. What are we pricing in? Is there a disconnect right now between the asset classes with stocks painting a much more sanguine picture? Look, stocks are pricing in a recession at this point in time. I mean, we've moved beyond kind of growth scare territory, which is where we were for the first part of the year. And now we've been down in around 25% from the peak or so. And your typical recession draw down on a median basis is 27. Your average drawdown is 32. So we're kind of pricing in that short shallow recession scenario. We're not pressing on a typical recession. We're not pricing in a severe one. We're not pricing on an extended one. But I think the good news if we do have that short shallow recession in the back half of the year, the equity market got a lot of that damage out of the way early. Well, I joined a Friday evening and into the weekend as we get to continue with lowering calvasina. And David Bianco as well. Again, we've got so much to talk about here over the hour. I can't say enough about the importance of speaking with Gregory Fleming as we will hear in a bit and again, professor summers was immensely prescient today on some of the images back in 1998. He says maybe panic less in mind. It'll be interesting. Yeah, and that's certainly a theme as we try to chart a path. What did we say this week, that it's not necessarily the question of whether we get a recession, but the path to get there in the path out of it to get back to that 2% inflation rate. We've got much more
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"On Twitter, Lisa big win for travelers who are terrible at maths. You're a dollar parity. That's brilliant. That's brilliant. How do you start our package there? And end it with John Farrell. I don't know who made that decision, but we say, welcome to you. I'm Tom Keane alongside Lisa bramlett. We are not David Weston, but we've had so much fun here on a Friday to bring you Wall Street week on Friday, and of course into the weekend. Right now it is a joy to go into the trenches on Wall Street week of strategists and thinkers on Wall Street adjusting in real time. Laurie calvasina is an RBC capital markets. She is exquisite as small caps in mid caps and also the gyrations of the market. A lot of good work there, bouncing off the work in economics of Tom porcelli. David Bianco is an institution far too young for the years on Wall Street, a Deutsche Bank, and now with DWS group America, so valuable, I think he walked out the door and they brought him back a second time. Two of you thrilled to have you on what is absolutely an odd week in years. Laurie, we're equities removed from the turmoil and the other asset classes. I think they were a little bit this week, but frankly, I think they deserved a bit of a break after the year that we've had in the past couple of months that we've had. And look, I think investors on the equity side were also gearing up for earnings. And we were in a little bit of a holding pattern until we got to the end of the week. And financials, I mean, there was definitely interesting moves and financials today once we finally got through the kind of thing. You should always ask age this morning. David Bianco helped me there because in your research, you know what you say, the banks are of interest. But the banks are all varied. Which kind of bank is where investments should be today. The big banks, the ones that have sticky deposit bases, the ones that will benefit from the fed hiking and the continued third hiking. So it's not comfortable to own banks if we're perhaps heading into a recession. But even if we do have a recession, this is not going to be a deflationary type of financial crisis. I think the credit costs will be well behaved and the banks will do so. How much our financials and idiosyncratic story versus a story of macroeconomics strength really because that really was the feeling when JPMorgan came out and over time it became something different. Well, it's a good question. And I do think when you have, it's financials are always a macro story. It's very difficult for financials not to be sensitive to the macro and purely idiosyncratic. However, what's happening in the macro situation right now is inflation and the fed hiking. So who's the only beneficiary of interest rates going up? It's banks. Everybody else is worried about that, not just in terms of slowing economy and earnings and PE pressure, but banks benefit, at least with higher earnings from higher interest rates. So given that backdrop, Lori, and given the fact that you said that really, stocks were somewhat immune to the volatility we were seeing in other asset classes. What are we pricing in? Is there a disconnect right now between the asset classes with stocks painting a much more sanguine picture? Look, stocks are pricing in a recession at this point in time. I mean, we've moved beyond kind of growth scare territory, which is where we were for the first part of the year. And now we've been down around 25% from the peak or so. And your typical recession drawdown on a median basis is 27. Your average drawdown is 32. So we're kind of pricing in that short shallow recession scenario. We're not typing in a typical recession. We're not pricing in a severe one. We're not pricing on an extended one. But I think the good news if we do have that short shallow recession in the back half of the year, the equity market got a lot of that damage out of the way early. Well, I joined a Friday evening and into the weekend as we get to continue with Laurie calvasina. And David Bianco as well. Again, we've got so much to talk about here over there. I can't say enough about the importance of speaking with Gregory Fleming as we will hear in a bit and again, professor summers was immensely prescient today on some of the images back in 1998. He says, maybe panic less than much. It'll be interesting. Yeah, and that's certainly a theme as we try to chart a path. What did we say this week, that it's not necessarily the question of whether we get a recession, but the path to get there in the past out of it to get back to that 2% inflation rate. We've got much more of that coming up after the break.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think Powell is trying to finesse it. I don't think that it's very clear for him would indeed the terminal rate is right now. I think that he's got to continue to guide the market towards hawkishness. He can't go wobbly on the resolution to tackle inflation right now. The Greg Staples DWS group had a North American fixed income there with really important comments on fixed income and we really thinking and lingering a BMO capital markets for darkening the door today as well. Right now to get your weakened started to really begin to think about the next 6 months. Pretty Gupta with perspective here. What are you talking about? Pretty Euro something? We're talking about Euro dollars. We're talking about it in the context of what they're pricing in when it talks about not just rate heights, but rate cuts. We actually look at the 12 month forward Euro dollar spread. Now essentially, this is what the bond market right now is pricing in, going at 12 months out into the road, so essentially in mid 2023. And for our radio audience, essentially what you need to know is that they're actually pricing in about 43 basis points of negative rates. So the idea here being that in mid 2023, at least for what the current bond market is pricing and they're going to start to expect perhaps some recessionary pressures or like pressures to wish they expect that the Federal Reserve will have to act using some of those rate cuts. And that's really what this chart of the day holds, whether that actually happens or manifests in the year time is another story. But it's significant to know that those vets have been increasing in the past few weeks. This is a brand where it's territory. Kayleigh and I have absolutely no comment on this. Whatsoever. Pretty good to thank you. So much cake. Seriously, Kayleigh, my head is spinning. Over all this fed babble. It's been hard to follow, and that's really been true for weeks and months now, Tom, ever since, you know, the hawkishness started ramping up. I don't know if any of us can really assign a narrative around this bond market or this equity market for that matter. We will see. Now, we've had a lot of important conversations this week, but we saved the best for my last of the week. Because in this is serious, the airlines are a mess. We are honored to bring you senior research analyst at Cowen, helene Becker, working with a wonderful ky von rumor they are truly the adults of the industry. Helene, I'm going to ask the question that every single listener and viewer wants to know, including misses Keane. Is this turmoil and airlines sacrificing or risking the wonderful safety record of commercial airlines? No, not at all. I'm the U.S. and really worldwide. Airlines pride themselves on being safe. Safety first. That's the most important thing. And I think that's that will be the case going forward. The issue with delays and cancellations, of course, is a whole nother story. I don't want to make jokes about this because surveillance team personally seen this. We've all got our own stories on this as well. Let's start with a pilot shortage. They're not going to fix this by Labor Day. Are they? No, no, not at all. So think about it this way. Over the past two years, approximately 10,000 pilots retire. We left the profession. The industry needs to hire to replace that just to get back to where we were in 2019. So that's about 10,000 pilots right there. And then there are about 2000 pilots retiring annually this decade. So when you think about replacing those 10,000 plus the additional 2000 that we need just to replace retiring pilots and then pilots on top of growth, we estimate we need something like 15,000 pilots this year, another 5000 pilots next year. Again, in 2024. So you're looking at 20,000 pilots over the next three years, two and a half years. And we just don't turn that many out. Okay, so helene, you have a labor pilot shortage that is leading to all of these problems, leading a consumer like me to look at all these headlines of flights, thousands of them canceled each and every weekend, and that when I'm shopping for flights, I see how much ticket prices have still going up are still going up. I'm looking at that saying, I'm going to take the train. I mean, does this just exacerbate? Excuse me, Kayleigh is Helane Becker, you travel agent? Is that what you're doing? You're booking a flight with a lady. You know what? I'm sure, as an airline analyst, she analyzes consumer sentiment around airlines, specifically higher prices, which to this point, airlines have had success in passing on some of those higher fuel costs through the mechanism of reading, raising ticket prices. But as Americans pay more for their own gasoline, helene, how long can they barely do that? They're all exactly Kelly, you make very good points here. Not only is it higher gasoline prices to get to work, right? Costs many people twice as much as it was costing them 6 months ago. And then you have higher food costs higher rent and so on. So yes, this is a major problem and ten prices to your point are going off and we don't see them coming down because you don't have enough staff. And it's not just pilots, by the way. People don't realize that the U.S. hasn't trained any air traffic controllers for two years. They're on the hunt now to find more, I think I looked at the numbers yesterday and we saw something like 4000 air traffic controllers are needed. It takes four years to train an air traffic controller. And then another two years for experience. So we're short them. We're a short pilots. We're short stuff at every airport and take a prices are going up. And yes, you are absolutely right. There is a point at which consumers are going to say enough. We can not take this anymore. And we'll stop traveling. And the airlines are kind of pushing the consumer into that direction, aren't they? Because they are reducing capacity. So there aren't as many flights available. And when there aren't as many seats in there's a lot of demand, they have to raise ticket prices and then people opt out and to your point, Kelly, they either train or drive, not they're driving as cheap, but exactly so. They make other choices. Okay, I know you love United Airlines. Kirby's got his hands full right now. Look at Newark this week. Are you going to move your buy hold cells based on all this trauma? Well, we are always reviewing our ratings for valuation. We also have no one's listening. Come on, Elaine. Monday. Give me some moves. I can work with here. Yeah, so we review
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Become all the rage with everyone extolling its virtues from investors Yes she investing has gone from niche to mainstream To bank CEOs Perhaps in the old days there was a bit of a trade off between ESG and returns now I really think they go hand in hand but some of that enthusiasm may be waning a bit As one prominent HSBC executive charge with ESG investing questioned whether it really makes sense Stuart Kirk is the head of responsible investing for the bank's asset management unit He criticized HSBC for paying too much attention to climate and other environmental and social issues While the head of Deutsche Bank's asset manager lost his job after police raided its offices apparently looking for ESG fraud The resignation comes just hours after Frankfurt police raided the headquarters of Deutsche Bank and DWS prosecutors say the search was related to allegations that DWS was inflating its ESG credential In the wake of all this Larry Fink of BlackRock a strong supporter of ESG investing made it clear he thinks the government has to step up to police it all I don't want to be in the environmental police I think it's wrong to ask the private sector to tell the entire society We have to move forward while former treasury secretary Larry summers questions the very premise of getting better returns by going the ESG route I eat the problem comes when people who really have an environmental motivation try to attach an economic motivation and make economic arguments that aren't really very strong And.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In a role in this fed Wednesday You are listening and watching Bloomberg business week We are live in our Bloomberg director broker studio We are streaming on YouTube It is Wednesday June 1st I call it a fed Wednesday because we did get those fed beige book assessments Again it's based on anecdotes among those regional fed banks the fed beige book showing growth slowing in some areas Most districts noted strong robust price growth jobs rising modestly modestly Tim in all districts Yeah if that beige book shows economic growth slowing in most areas as you mentioned also most districts noted strong robust price growth and the beige book showing growth slowing in some areas It's so important we both say it Yeah exactly I'm like why are these headlines coming across twice Because this is what we are focused on We're focused focusing on fed activity Those concerns about a much more aggressive 'cause we got some strong economic data points today is why we've seen some stresses and lower points when it comes to the equity trade Welcome everybody We're going to get to that in just a moment Top of mind though Jamie Dimon he's got a warning for the U.S. economy this story the most read on the Bloomberg terminal Yeah the meteorologist Jamie Dimon We're going to talk about that We're going to get another view on banking too We're going to talk to Don mccree the head of commercial banking at Citizens Financial Group get an idea of what's happening on the ground Yep and we've got a most read the greenwash raid at Deutsche Bank some battle DWS group who goes also potential OPEC plus fallout affecting the oil trade we're definitely seeing that today Tim And we're going to talk to Kerry healey the president of the milk and center for advancing the American Dream looking forward to that conversation in 4 o'clock hour And summer vacation season it's here so I feel like I get ready for a bad trip sorry everybody First up let's get to that market.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The scale of tightening by the world's central banks The U.S. ten year two 86 94 up to basis points Okay let's get over to blue bags at Leigh Anne county's got today's top stories Good morning brianne Caroline good morning US Treasury secretary's Janet treasury secretary Janet Yellen has given her most directed mission that she made the wrong call last year when she predicted elevated inflation would not pose a continuing problem Yellen told CNN she misjudged the path inflation would actually take Meanwhile president Joe Biden has met a Federal Reserve chair Jay pal at The White House as part of efforts to reassure Americans on the economy and also surging prices Biden used the rare meeting to declare that he respects the central banks independent Now in top corporate news DWS has replaced its embattled CEO ahsoka vermin just hours after a police raid Bloomberg's max Ramsey has all the details DWS group says CEO ahsoka vermin has resigned and will be replaced by the head of Deutsche Bank's corporate bank Stefan hoops Vermin's resignation comes just hours after Frankfurt police raided the headquarters of Deutsche Bank and DWS which is the lenders asset management unit Now prosecutors say the search was related to allegations that DWS was inflating its ESG credentials The greenwashing probe underscores the growing scrutiny of money managers and their sustainability claims as demand for ESG investments soars In Brussels max Ramsey Bloomberg daybreak Europe The rights to broadcast football's biggest leaks could merge into one mega channel but Britain's regulator is concerned The competition and markets authority is looking into BT sports 633 million pound deal with Warner Brothers It would combine Premier League in eurosport licensing rights under one brand The agency will decide on whether to delay kick-off and start a probe on July at the 28th Now the government says it's up to air travel sector to deal with increased demand and is again blaming aviation bosses The deputy prime minister Dominic raab has been speaking today and has insisting airlines have ignored the government I don't think the airline operators have done the recruitment that they should have done and taken the advice that the transport secretary gave them Holiday plants are hitting turbulent times for those trying to leave the UK as flight cancellations and long delays cause chaos at British airport passengers did spend hours at terminals around the country yesterday and two we have council 200 flights this month and that has been due to a lack of staff And China's factory activity contracted in May from the previous month though the slowdown was not as bad as it was in April both production and new orders fell according to the kaishin manufacturing purchasing managers index The survey blamed weak foreign demand as a key factor weighing on new businesses global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries I'm leann gerrans this is Bloomberg a Caroline Thank you so much for today's top stories Now UK house prices went up .9% so 9 tenths of 1% in May On a yearly basis 11.2% gain according to the latest nationwide house price survey the housing market has seen price gains now for ten months in a row that is in spite of rising interest rates and the cost of living crisis starting to dent households Earlier this morning I spoke to Andrew Harvey nationwide's senior economist about what is behind the jump It's still got a surprising amount momentum and that's the spike growing headwinds we're seeing from the squeeze in household budgets and from high inflation of course we've been talking about this morning and also a steady increase in borrowing costs So may figure of 11.2% means that in 12 hours 13 months we've seen double digit house price growth but that takes the average house price just shy of 270,000 which is a record high We think demand has been supported by strong labor market conditions of course unemployment is near 50 year lows at the moment and record vacancy rate as well So that's all keeping relatively strong in demand And at the same time the stock on the market has remained low and that's keeping up with pressure on prices as well So if we're looking at advertised prices rising to 270,000 pounds where does that place us in a historical context So it's a record in terms of in nominal terms In real terms it's actually still low than we were seeing in 2007 for example brief and actual speed And when we're thinking about that in affordability we know that house prices have been rising a lot faster than earnings over recent years And that means the average house price to earnings ratio is also at a record high at 6.9 times average earnings That said however because interest rates are a lot lower now than they were in 2007 The average cost of servicing a mortgage is well below those pre financial crisis peaks So on that affordability metric it's not as bad as where we were there So households are in a strong position from that respect Okay How much do you think the Bank of England will be concerned about this interest rates are going up How much are homeowners still dependent on mortgages Well we still see the majority of people who are buying homes are using mortgages And what we're seeing at the moment is that with new mortgage rates creeping up that is starting to have an impact in terms of affordability pressures And that said a lot of the existing mortgage stock is on fixed rates So over 80% of outstanding mortgages are on fixed rates So they are relatively insulated at least So that was the nationwide senior economist Andrew Harvey they taking us through the amazing pace of gains that we've seen House prices this has been the longest kind of winning streak in terms of house price gains in at least 6 years but of course the Bank of England is now talking about how there's been a big slump in new home loan approvals Coming as a consequence of rising rates Yeah of course four rate hikes for the bank being and then everybody expecting more to come down the line Fascinating to think what is holding up house prices isn't it really Because we had the race for space during the pandemic We had those tax breaks those big big tax breaks from the government as well Those are boosting the market but both are things have gone or at least you think people have got the space they need after the pandemic They've already moved house So what exactly is holding things up Why have house prices still rising It's a fascinating story isn't it Fun fact is always the perennial issue We are building homes but we're simply not building enough homes to accommodate everyone small island problem Anyway that on house prices this morning also want to bring you another really.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"For the American people U.S. inflation is running near its fastest pace in four decades Meanwhile the treasury secretary Janet Yellen has given her most direct admission yet that she made the wrong call last year when she predicted elevated inflation would not pose a continuing problem Yellen has told CNN she must judge the path inflation would take In top corporate news DWS group says CEO ahsoka bormann has resigned and will be replaced by the head of Deutsche Bank's corporate bank Stefan hoops foreman's resignation comes just hours after Frankfurt police raided the headquarters of Deutsche Bank and DWS which is the lenders asset management unit prosecutors say the search was related to allegations that DWS was inflating its ESG credentials Here in the UK food prices are rising at the fastest pace in a decade according to the British retail consortium Bloomberg's UN Potts has more More pain for households from rising costs the BRC says that fresh food prices jumped four and a half percent in the year to May The crisis exacerbated by the war in Ukraine which has created shortages of key inputs such as wheat fertilizer and animal feed overall shop price inflation is now at an 11 year high This after the Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey said that the surge in food prices could have apocalyptic consequences in London I'm you and Potts Bloomberg Debra Europe In China factory activity in May contracted from the previous month as both production and new orders fell although the slowdown was not as fast as it was in April Bloomberg's John Liu reports from Beijing The taishi manufacturing PMI a privately compiled gauge of manufacturers in China rose to 48.1 from April 46th while that's an improvement the reading is still below 50 indicating contraction and was weaker than a comma survey by Bloomberg had expected It paints a picture that's similar to the official government PMI released earlier this week China's economy is doing better as authorities began to relax covered related restrictions but is still far from being healthy In Beijing Bloomberg daybreak Europe And to the war in Ukraine president Joe Biden says he will give the country advance rocket systems and other U.S. weaponry to better hit targets in its fight against Russia The move announced in a New York Times article ramps up U.S. Military support as a conflict drags into its fourth month the package of weapons includes missiles that will allow Ukraine to strike locations as far as 80 kilometers away Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries and the Ann gerrans this is Bloomberg Stephen Leon thank you Let's get more on that rare Oval Office meeting between President Biden and fair chair Jerome Powell the U.S. president promising to respect the central banks independence as we heard but stressing the need for the institution to contain inflation as it runs out of 40 year high We've also had those comments from the treasury secretary Janet Yellen admitting that she made the wrong call last year and projecting that elevated inflation wouldn't pose a continuing problem Joining us now is Bloomberg opinions Asia economics columnist Daniel mastan thank you very much for being with us What did we learn then about Joe Biden and his concerns on inflation We learned that Jay Powell has a nice little Central Bank there and wouldn't it be a shame if something would have happened Look there was no need for Biden to emphasize so greatly that the fed's independence its independent in statute So what Biden was doing was simultaneously empowering the fed saying we will get no blowback from the unlike the previous guy unlike Trump if you do what you think you need to do But also implicit in that is page I said do what you need to do If it goes wrong if there's failures to be a portioned but the number one rule in Washington is avoid blind Okay So J pal have at it if it goes wrong it's on you This is painting things yeah in a very political light isn't it This is clearly your point of perhaps in the midterms or to voters but yeah I understand how you're unpacking the story So then what did you make of Janet Yellen And effectively that kind of mayor copper that she made in terms of inflation Well the preamble to your point is this is clearly economy week quote unquote For the Biden administration So we had the fireside chat with J pal And the cameras were allowed in We've had op eds from the president and administration officials also signaling job growth is likely to slow so it's definitely economy week Now as far as Yellen is concerned okay so she was wrong She's in good company Almost the entire monetary policy establishment globally From Australia to the UK to the Eurozone to the United States to Canada fell in love with this idea of low inflation For good reason coming out of the 2007 to 2009 bust everyone thought that massive stimulus would bring with it pronounced inflation It didn't happen Janet Yellen was the person who publicly declared it a mystery It's a mystery So yeah she's speaking for herself But to be fair to Janet Yellen she was in strong company So do you think then this is the sign of some sort of change that we'll see if there's someone willing to come out who did that job who says look I was wrong Is that going to have an influence on how the fed operates from now on Look she had to say that She could not And don't treasury secretary is a much more political office than fed chair There's no way that with all the political angst of sweeping the country about inflation That she couldn't do with me at culber And if you're going to do it this would be the week to do it Let's get it all out during quote unquote economy week I don't know that necessarily changes things that much Jay Powell has said publicly that it's likely to be a half point rate hike in June There's likely to be a half point rate hike in July And Chris Walla a bed governor talked about several okay That's Dan To think then Dan that actually the tune is now being played out of Europe Because we had to hands on Oh hi Can you still hear us Hopefully you're still there I just had one question about your view on inflation in Europe Dan can you hear us Okay I think maybe we'll come back to that That thought the last thought really was about whether bond markets are actually now paying more attention to what's happening in Europe the ECB meeting because you know the debate around inflation has been sort of had effectively and whether now we're shifting to look at Christina God Yeah I mean if we look at what's happening on the bond markets we're getting into kind of the European trading to start in the next couple of minutes But all of those yields were rising pretty significantly yesterday in a picture where we've carved that records inflation coming out in the Eurozone We're looking at German ten year yields at one 12 French ten years at one 60 four These are not these are not figures that kind of tell us that we're going to be essentially getting massive reaction on expected reaction from the ECB though Okay so that was Bloomberg opinions Asia economist economics columnist Daniel moss they're speaking to us about what's happening in the U.S. as yes we turn and pivot our attention to Europe when it comes to yields Also I think interestingly though that will play into that surely is the inflation number and also the energy picture So European natural gas prices have actually fallen 8 and a half percent this morning So that's worth noting Also the strength of the consumer in Europe well we've got German retail sales at that just dropped about ten minutes ago retail sales rose two and a half percent year on year but that's actually almost half of the estimate the estimate was 4.4% And yeah they've fallen month on month by 5.4% So the estimate was only a drop of half of 1% So there you have the impact on the consumer of these rising prices Those really weak German retail sales figures And in the biggest economy in the.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Top stories Here's Bloomberg's Lion garon's Steven good morning and thank you US Treasury secretary Janet Yellen has given her most direct emission that she made the wrong call last year when she predicted elevated inflation would not pose a continuing problem Yellen told CNN she misjudged the path inflation would take saying she didn't fully understand the circumstances and that she unanticipated shocks later worsened the situation Meanwhile president Joe Biden has met fed check J Powell at the wet White House as part of efforts to reassure Americans on the economy and surging prices Biden used the rare meeting to declare that he does respect the fed's independence Now UK food prices are rising at their fastest rate in a decade according to the British retail consortium UK households are facing more pain from rising costs fresh food prices jumped at 4.5% in the year through to May the crisis has been made worse by the war in Ukraine which has created shortages of key imports such as wheat fertilizer and also animal feed and now we're just going to go and have a look at the China eco economy at the moment China's factory activity contracted in May from the previous month though the slowdown was not as bad as April both production and new orders fell according to the kaishin manufacturing purchases managers index the survey blamed weak foreign demand as a key factor weighing on new businesses Elsewhere president Joe Biden says he will give Ukraine advanced rocket systems and other U.S. weaponry to better hit targets in its war with Russia The move announced in a New York Times article ramps up U.S. Military support as a conflict drags into its fourth month The package of weapons includes missiles that will allow Ukraine to strike locations as far as 80 kilometers away And DWS group CEO ahsoka foreman has resigned and will be replaced by the head of Deutsche Bank's corporate bank Stefan hoops formants resignation comes to hours after Frankfurt police raided the headquarters of Deutsche Bank in DWS which its lenders asset manage meant unit prosecutors say this search was related to allegations like DWS was inflating its ESG credentials Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries I'm Leanne guerin's this is Bloomberg Caroline Thank you so much Lee and garnes with today's top stories Now what's happening here politically in the UK Boys Johnson standards adviser says that there is a legitimate question over whether the prime minister broke the rules during party gate 28 of his own MPs have now publicly called on the prime minister to resign One of them Tobias elwood was speaking to Bloomberg Westminster yesterday to me and to you import For him the party's are a breach of trust but he says that fellow Tory MPs are in a very tight spot It's very very tough for individuals to make that assessment given the success that Boris Johnson has brought to the party We've had a tough election which we won with a large majority a difficult couple of years over Brexit which I know you discussed many many times And he's the one that got us through it through that There are many MPs that believe that they won their seats because of him So as to turn that around bent to say is he appropriate for the future battles given how well he did in previous ones that is a really really tough call But as we saw what happened in number ten the cultural lack of focus lack of discipline lack of leadership unfortunately there has been a breach of trust with the British people and that's proving very very difficult to repair And that's why more and more colleagues are making the assessment that tough though it is and if perhaps this time that we do look elsewhere Surely the mood within the party must be absolutely dire There's no doubt about it but this isn't the first time that a party in government has to go through this process If you like and the unwritten small print that you must sign in the contract when you become a member of parliament and this is proving a distraction I hear the call to say let's move on But there is a steady drum beat of evidence and concern Look at the local election results We should have done much better than that We lost a couple of flagship councils Westminster and wandsworth in the center of London and elsewhere up and down the country We've got two tough pi elections approaching as well So these are all indicators to say actually I'm afraid the brand the party brand itself is I'm afraid being actually disrupted and affected by Boris Johnson that was seen to so long as such a huge asset If there is a vote Johnson must be in with a good chance of getting a 180 votes must know That's half of Tory and peas That's what he needs to survive a vote of no confidence If that's the case wouldn't that be a messy end to rebels plans to oust him Well this is all about what's best for the party what's best for the country How can we focus on the big economic challenges that you and your introduction rates you've got Ukraine the cost of living and so forth These are the things that are important It's very difficult to land these policies when there's a constant drum beat of concern to do with what's happened in this breach of trust You want the nation to take difficult decisions and they would respect or follow you if they don't have confidence in you And that's the challenge that we face The dilemma there's no doubt about it I can look back at some of these other times when in government a party has removed the leader at the time Margaret Thatcher it wasn't many over half but she felt she had lost the confidence of enough including some of her front bench that she did the honorable thing and.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From Bloomberg radio We've got some inflation built into the system and price rises aren't going to go away Overnight but I think we've been seeing some hopeful signs that we're at a point here where we can begin getting a grip on this situation That of course was Paul Volcker on Wall Street with way back in 1975 That was when he was the president of the New York fed before he got to administer his medicine to the economy as head of the Federal Reserve David Bianco of DWS America's and Kate Moore of BlackRock are still with us So Kate let me ask you a question that I'm hearing more and more Some people are suggesting this may be here for a long time to come We had Jason Furman on from Harvard earlier this week on Bloomberg and he said he thinks it could be years we have really high inflation If that's right if that proves to be true what does that say for two investors Well actually as much stress as we have around higher inflation rates particularly since most of us haven't had to deal with this for the majority of our lives There's actually really interesting investment theme around higher inflation It's really interesting to look at within industries which companies have pricing power which companies are doing a really good job of managing their costs and managing to their margins And which are struggling I mean I also like this theme of looking at companies that have very high labor intensity to sales In other words do they have to continue to hire and especially at a time where we know the total cost of employee continues to rise Or do they have business models that are scalable They can continue to grow without adding two additional labor I mean we have to live in this environment and invest in this environment And I think there's some pretty interesting opportunities Even though inflation does pinch our wallets Well okay give me an example What sorts of sectors at least are you talking about Okay an example might be like if you're just thinking in the consumer sectors for example some companies have done a really good job of writing longer term contracts of managing their input costs Sometimes they've made great investments in software and systems and technology so that they've been able to reduce their dependence on labor All of these things help to sort of mitigate the margin pressure that an inflationary environment might otherwise scare us into right And so there are some decent fundamental stories even in the higher inflationary environment But you've really got to get to know the company And there are some beneficiaries of the fed fighting inflation banks insurance companies they should benefit from higher interest rates We think utilities are a really good Bond substitute with inflation protection and probably delivering the energy that the future and electrification And we like healthcare and healthcare has become the biggest part of consumer spending and continues to be the fastest growing part productivity medicines devices are needed there These productivity providers we think they're going to be able to play an important role in capture profits Look about your clip In 1975 is that even the provoker recognized the challenge ahead It surprised even him The big man to the upside inflation can be a very big problem when that Genie is out of the bottle Okay that leaves me exactly my question to you David which is you study.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Enough for you we ended the week on Friday the 13th with Elon Musk tweeting that his bid for Twitter was on temporary hold sending the stock down by as much as 25% at one point before he sent another tweet saying he was still committed to the deal which helped a bit but still left the stock off about 10% And as for the markets overall equities made a valiant effort on Friday to come back from a bad week But the S&P 500 still finished down 2.4% for the week Closing lower for the 6th week in a row While the NASDAQ was off 2.8% and the yield on the ten year came down 20 basis points ending the week at 2.92 To help us make some sense out of this rather chaotic week We welcome now Kate Moore She's BlackRock global allocation team head of thematic strategy and David Bianco CIO for DWS America So David it's not a very easy task But what sense was made out of this week Oh this week was volatile At least ended on a happy note And we appreciate that equities ended the week on a strong note but let's face it the equity market and most asset classes have been under a lot of pressure year to date The S&P it's flirting with a bear market It was down as much as 18 19% during the week Now it's down 16% from its all time highs And I think we're in a range bound market for some time Markets just need to figure out what the normal interest rates are and until we have an understanding as to where interest rates stabilize especially not until the bond markets stop suffering losses the equity markets at risk Okay when you look at the equity market related to the bond market how much of this is discounting future earnings basically there's a discount rate put against future earnings And how much was actually the multiple In the highest growth parts of the market the stuff that was commanding ridiculous multiples for a lot of 2021 You know that D rating is really started in November And has continued through the course of 2022 We still believe we're far away from a recession And we think the fed is in the very early stages of normalizing policy both in terms of policy rates as well as of course quantitative tightening and reducing or pardon me changing the size of the balance sheet So those two things together are going to I think exert a bit of pressure And I think going to keep volatility high We keep watching the relationship between rates fall and equity ball And see if there's a change in the pattern But right now I think they're going to stay elevated But that's exactly right I mean we're watching interest rates we're watching interest rate volatility It's just representative of how much uncertainty there is on where interest rates are likely to go up but where do they plateau And yes higher interest rates particularly higher real interest rates has reducing the PE multiple And then there's this uncertainty about how long this expansion might last I've said that this expansion is two years old Perhaps going on 7 or 9 years old biologically when it has a ten year expected lifespan So they've not only used a higher discount rate to take in the PE They've also shortened their forecast horizon So not paying for future growth Instead they're valuing the more certain earnings and dividends that you see coming from certain companies now Yeah and I have to say you know we look around and say there are a lot of high quality companies that you want to own for the next three or 5 years that are trading at pretty attractive multiples right now That said could the multiples overshoot to the downside I mean I think the answer is yes There's a high probability that is the uncertainty rises around the macro environment and policy that you end up seeing multiples get to kind of really silly cheap levels If you want to average in then great but this is a challenging environment I think it's still a good environment for the long-term investor You have to find that person that person needs to really understand the volatility they may be facing A 20 P E is still reasonable given these interest rates There's still much lower than history Now.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Weakening in markets but that all at once that can change especially as they actually do start reducing the balance sheet which they may do at today's meeting How concerned are you about that about an uncontrolled move in response to what the fed is doing when they actually engage with it rather than just jawbone It's certainly a risk but we don't see it We don't see the buildup and pressures like we saw in some of the past cycles The fed has always concerned when they're in their financial stability report about frothiness and some of the securities markets And some of that is already eased out It's as if you will The bubbles leaked a little bit The risk of it popping is not something that we see It's always a potential out there There might be some built up pressures but we can't find them and we don't think they're there Let me ask you financial TV one O one How can we be quiescent as Greenspan would say about bond prices coming down a little more in holding still and yields holding if the fed is raising rates along the way Those two don't match do they Well they do actually because I think the bond market does a very good job of discounting the forward path of fed actions and right now I think that probably close to the end of that So to be careful here at the I'm getting the dates up John at the September 21 meeting the bond market's going to be modeling in late 2023 That's probably right And what do you see for late 2023 I think in the short end you're probably talking two and a half two and three quarters I don't think it goes much further than that I do think that what the fed's done so far at least with the markets doing for the fed will actually start to bite in the economy I don't think that actually have to remember time that this is also an election year and one of the reasons we're talking 50 basis points in May June and July It's fortunate for the fed they've got consecutive meetings like this is that they can pull back and go on autopilot before the November elections This is the first time I can remember in history when the administration is not screaming for looser money in an election year if anything I think they're quiescent for neutral or tighter money That's historically an anomaly John I was trying to get Staples in trouble there I think I think Craig's experience enough to stand a travel to You know he killed it Rick stifles there of DWS group A question that Deutsche Bank asked given how strong consumer balance sheets are in the eyes of so many people including great Staples How sensitive is demand to write increases Because of all of that Lisa and I just wonder whether maybe that's another factor why some people think race do not actually have to go even higher I think that that's a really important point and it's not just the consumer It's also corporations that have locked in financing for so long If they don't actually have to incur those higher charges to borrow money does it really have a tightening effect on the market And this is a really important point in terms of how long we have to wait before fed policy actually makes a material dent in the U.S. economy Here's a stat for you Citi just published 1.94 job openings for every unemployment individual shows an even tighter labor market This together with a 1.4% quarter on quarter employment cost index should keep pressure on the fed to address inflation and imply a balance of risk that SKUs hawkish at today's fed meeting Later I actually saw you tweet that number this morning from Jim Reed over at Deutsche Bank two 1.94 job openings for every unemployed individual in America right now That's quite a number It's unprecedented On every level it has led some people to wonder whether that's an accurate stat in terms of actual job openings or simply those that are posted I do wonder whether that jolts report gets the fed's attention because it just highlights that we are increasing in tightness not exactly Remedying the issue Well we know the ACI gets chairman Powell's attention Don't we Yeah we do know that Yes that was what was the major point behind the pivot and not the second term No skepticism At the Federal Reserve How do you feel about your wife feel Yeah No no no I like to stay neutral on these stories Yeah you're as neutral as conviction I just don't want to give my opinion on why chairman Powell got his pivot And when he delivered his pivot It was interesting that it came around the time that he got a second term Futures are behalf of 1% on the S&P the NASDAQ up four tenths of 1% From New York this morning good morning This is Bloomberg Now the latest news from New York City and around the world here's Michael Barr Tom Lisa John good morning.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Com for more All right it is fed day Bloomberg and TV will have complete coverage this afternoon and it's all about the tone of the interest rate environment going forward that we're going to be looking for from this Federal Reserve chairman David Bianco chief investment officer DWS group joins us David I guess you know the tapering is well I guess well discounted well understood by the market What are you looking for fed chairman Powell this afternoon Good morning Thanks for having me It's fed day which is definitely an exciting day here at DWS and for all investment managers What we're going to be listening to is just thoughts On inflation of course the transitory versus structural debate But also importantly what's the fed going to do about it So our view is that inflation will decelerate over the coming year from what has been very high levels But even though inflation is decelerating it's still very likely going to be above the fed's target and therefore the fed needs to start continuing to remove accommodation We're going to hear about tapering today The real question is what's going to happen to overnight rates Our view is there's still a not be a hike in overnight rates until the fourth quarter of next year But let's hear And by the way this is a moment where we're going to get to hear from the fed chair And after this there is going to be a lot more It's going to open the window to hearing whether we get the re nomination from the president for Jay Powell or not It's when we all want to hear the current shares mind thoughts and before we get into it a little bit more of a political considerations about the future leadership of the fed The fed the fed has nothing to do with the supply chain crisis or really even shipping issues the costs that come from that aren't anything the fed can control but it does have a mandate for the labor market And the labor shortage seems to be one of the things that people are pointing to more and more often Even beyond the chips and ships issue So what do we expect to hear from the fed on that We expect to talk about all of these issues and the federal rightly point out that there has been an inflationary shock from the supply side related to the pandemic supply chains and also a little labor scarcity That is getting better but getting better slowly but at the same time the fed should acknowledge that there's been monetary effects occurring here too Cash in circulation has jumped tremendously since the pandemic in part to fund the emergency fiscal policy response And that was important But cash in circulation even household deposits up a lot since since the pandemic started So this is why the fed can't do anything and really shouldn't fight supply side inflation when it's when it's not something structural But they need to acknowledge that there is a demand side and part of this demand side whether it be government spending or even just households being flushed with cash the fed does have something to do with that Now to keep all this cash kind of on ice and chilled rather than turning into hotter money while this is why you see short term interest rates beginning to lift upward We've got the two year yield at about it's gotten close to 50 basis points three year yields at 75 basis points The bond market seems to be very confident that the fed is going to take actions to contain inflation And we believe that's going to plan now Let's watch and see what leadership of the fed is and what they say But there is still inflation risk out there and we want to protect against those inflation risks and our view is the best way to protect against inflation is simply to own the best businesses you can Out of all of these concerns about inflation year to date after years of this trend being persistent year to date growth stocks are outperforming in the SMT and we believe that it's better to own businesses that are raising their productivity rather than raising their price David are you share the concern that is held by some that perhaps this fed reserve is falling behind that the market's getting ahead of them and even some other central banks out there Not yet Tapering is probably going to be announced today And that is going to move out a little bit of a faster pace than most of us thought say 6 months 12 months ago The fed will be talking about how they're thinking about raising interest rates probably late next year So they're using their communication tools well The bond market as I said it's beginning to move and do some a little bit of pulling back accommodation and raising the cost of capital So the bond market is doing some work for the fed right now And this is a tough thing The fed is trying to wrestle with what parts of inflation are really transitory and supply side shocks that will fade and they'd be wrong if they were aggressively going to fight Versus other things that might be more structural like a lot of people have gotten to retirement Since the pandemic and there may be more labor difficulties in the future and the trade activity import activity tariffs and so forth These things are still a challenge to keep an inflation low Also when there is an emergency and you've got low interest rates one of the best things that they can do is to promise to keep.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"dws" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"With this Bloomberg radio business slash We're focused on earnings this morning in particular Deutsche Bank and financials including DWS Deutsche Bank shares dropped 4.7% right now despite reporting higher third quarter profits DWS is just barely impossib to portents of 1% Heineken though delivered a blow in terms of its beer shipments in Asia COVID really hitting those sales effectively So the share price for Heineken down by 1.9% And then banker Santander was one of the other financials reporting that drops 2.7% Right now this amidst a border wheat market in Europe you're so 600 Carly down three tenths of 1% 3100 or so dropping a quarter of 1% of course ahead of Rishi sunak's budget at lunchtime today Meanwhile we also have got futures for the U.S. market open Wall Street of of course close at another record high yesterday Futures for the U.S. market open if I can get those up U.S. sesame fondant features gaining barely a tenth of 1% NASDAQ futures up by a tenth of 1% Again the results in terms of the big tech numbers were pretty mixed from Twitter from alphabet a form Microsoft Also this caught my attention U.S. and China tensions escalated the FCC banning China Telecom and more pressure on China evergreen too What happened in China Well the CSI 300 dropped 1.3% and the hang seng also off by 1.6% When we see bond markets for U.S. yields said it wants what 6% say down a basis point That is able to make radio business flash That is van Gogh's with more and more to go online Hi Caroline Here in the Yuki MP say the NHS test and trade system has failed to break chains of COVID transmission despite.