12 Burst results for "Council Of Economic Advisers"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Are in Washington anticipating one week from today those midterm elections. But before that, we have the Federal Reserve meeting today and tomorrow with a decision on rates coming out tomorrow. And he gives a preview that we turn down to Michael McKee. He's Bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent. So Mike, what are we looking for? Well, David, a lot of people are going to be looking at the political impact of the fed's moves, but really the focus for Wall Street of the November fed meeting is the December fed meeting. The fed is basically told us they're going to raise rates 75 basis points three quarters of a percentage point to 4% at their meeting tomorrow. But what do they do after that? Pressure is building on them in two directions. First of all, there are people who think they need to keep raising 75 basis points because the labor market is so strong. We got some data today on that and then we got some price data that's encouraging. The ISM numbers come out today and this is not the headline. These are the underlying numbers, very good numbers because new orders are up a little bit, telling us that the economy is not rolling over, but order backlog or deliveries are down. So the supply chain problems are starting to really go away, and that's reflected in the prices paid index, which fell to a level that capital economic says is much more consistent with 1% inflation than 8% inflation. But at the same time, we got those jolts data today that show the fed has a labor market issue still. They've been making the case that they need to keep raising rates because the labor market is so strong. The job openings numbers are so strong and the job openings numbers come out today higher than they were last month. That's a problem and of course Friday we get the hiring numbers and we'll see if there's any kind of drop in that. So the other problem for Jay Powell is what the markets think is going to happen and how that affects them. Stock market's going up is not good news because it's looser data. And here's Jay Powell's favorite yield curve. It's the three month bill with a three month with an 18 month look ahead. So you see what the markets are thinking the three month rate will be in 18 months and they see almost at this point and inversion. And when Jay Powell was asked about that last march, he said, that's the most important yield curve to us because it shows what the markets think is going to happen. Now, and when that happens, it means there's going to be a recession and the fed has to cut rates. So we'll see if he follows up on that. And of course, the thing that's just come over the transom today, again, more Democrats criticizing Jay Powell and the fed, telling him to watch what they're doing because they don't want to hurt employment for millions of Americans or 1% rise in the unemployment rate is about a million and a half jobs. The fed's going to ignore that. It's not what they do. They want to just stick to monetary policy. And they've, well, Jay poll at least has made a very firm case that he is going to do as Paul Volcker did, no matter what the consequences. Thank you so much to Bloomberg's Michael McKee. Well, whatever the fed says, we know the council economic advisers over at the white as we were looking at it very, very carefully. And we welcome now here in our Washington bureau, Jared Bernstein. A member of that council. Thank you so much for coming over. My pleasure, great to see you IRL in real life. Pleasure to take a walk from The White House over to Bloomberg today. It's great to have you. So let's start with where it might just left off. You have been very careful. As your colleagues have been saying, you do not try to influence the Federal Reserve. They are independent. They make their own decisions. Some of the Democrats up on Capitol Hill don't share in that view. We've just had senators Warren and Sanders earlier, we had hickenlooper earlier, we had sherrod Brown saying something, would you rather some Democrats actually hold their powder on this because you could have ironically the fed try to prove they are independent by keeping the rates high. I'm not going to comment on where various members of Congress or senators feel they need to be on this position. I'm here as a representative of president Joe Biden who has consistently done something. I think really important and historically impressive, which is that he has said, I am going to stay out of the fed's knitting when it comes to this rate hiking cycle. Now, history is littered, including the previous administration with presidents who took a different position and gotten the fed's grill anytime they were raising rates. The president has in fact endorsed their pivot and argued that they are the first and foremost inflation fighter and that's where we're going to stick it. So one thing that you are doing at The White House is advocating a windfall profit tax on oil. We heard from President Biden just yesterday, we'll play just a little bit of what President Biden had to say. You know, at a time of war, and he come to receiving historic one trial profits like this as a responsibility to act beyond their narrow self interest of its executive shareholders. I think they have responsibility to act in the interest of their consumers, their community and their country. To invest in America by increasing production and refining capacity. So, Jed, we all are concerned about the price of gas. And the price of oil for that matter. At the same time, as an economist, when does it make sense to tax something in order to encourage more production? Doesn't economics teach you exactly the reverse when you tax it, you get less of it? Not if you get under the hood of what the specific mechanism we're talking about here is first of all, this won't surprise you, but I thought the words from the president were extremely resonant and trenchant. You've got the 6 tops companies over the past 6 months making over a $100 billion. Now we're doing all weekend. We've talked about this before to try to get consumers
77WABC Radio
"council economic advisers" Discussed on 77WABC Radio
"Director Linda atom digital engagement What are these titles Digital engagement director Cameron trimble Associate counsel I can't pronounce it Chief of staff Ron klain advisers Elizabeth Wilkins and the yacht can pronounce it press assistant on the Austin National economic council age jole gamble and counter Maxwell and presidential personnel aged Danielle okay Reggie Greer and ray Sean Dyson of all departed Deputy White House counsel Daniel Conley council economic advisers say sherrod Griffin are among others planning to leave in the coming weeks cornered White House officials First of all you see it's a sinking ship It's the ship Titanic Biden So people are jumping ship They don't want to be tainted by this The exodus has raised concerns among outside advisers who've pushed for the diversification of government right Now they're not worried about the management and the administration capabilities of the administration with people leaving You know the band with the finger on the nuclear button No no no They're worried about diversification Quote I've heard about an exodus of black Stanford from The White House blacks it and I am concerned said Spencer overton president of the joint center for political and economic studies which tracks government staff diversity numbers Black voters at Kenneth for 22% of President Biden's voters in November 2020 he said it's essential that black staffers are not only recruited to serve in senior mid level and junior White House positions But are also included a major policy in personnel decisions and have opportunities for advancement Although you do with the vice president right You do have the press secret I'm just saying You do have the secretary defense and there are others I'm not defending Biden because it's his staff that's the problem obviously White House official pushed back on those concerns saying that around 14% of current White House staffers identify as black They identify as black In line with the national in line with national proportions They say the official added that the number is expected to increase as more black staffers are brought on board and that 15% of the black staffers have been promoted in the last year The president is incredibly proud to have built what continues to be the most diverse White House staff in history He's committed to continuing historic representation for blackstaff in all communities said White House press secretary Karen Jean Pierre Say normal time for turnover across the board and any administration and blackstaff have been promoted at a higher rate than staff who are not diverse Black staff that are not diverse So they're discriminating They just confessed to a violation of federal law You're not supposed to be promoting people based on race Or the lack of being diverse A number of Stanford who left moreover said it was on good terms some departures were for graduate school opportunities Others went to different cabinet departments Several said that okay let me just stop there That's one two that's like 6 paragraphs in Is that complete mind story I mean there's so much to report about Biden He's such a lame brain He's done such destruction to this country In every corner of this country in every way and this is the story Finally you get the chapter 6 some of these paragraphs Some of these people went on to other departments or graduate school I'm just saying to you folks there's a lot to criticize this fool for But this is a non story If you don't get to paragraph 5 or 6 you don't understand what's going on People are moving around Some have left some are moving around If you were working at The White House when you say I got to get the hell out of here What department can I go to Right This is really stupid I'm just saying I'm not defending the clown I'm just saying it's a stupid story One more that's not stupid And I'm ending with this purposely And we'll take some calls Washington compost Russian advances in Ukraine's east make a tipping point Ladies and gentlemen I am very concerned about this You're not hearing a lot of whining from the Putin wing.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Than walls to protect workers that we really need In the wall and the bridge Hubbard proposes a series of private and government programs to help workers build a bridge to the future Because in the end even painful change is essential to capitalism which echoing Ken langone is the system that in the long run will do the most people the most good which works better for everybody And there's no doubt in my mind capitalism And we're delighted to be joined now by one of our regular contributors here on Wall Street He's Glenn Hubbard former chairman of the council economic advisers certainly of Columbia business school And most important for this purpose the author of the new book the wall and the bridge Glen thank you so much for being back with us It's a fascinating book An important book In reading through it I have the strong sense part of your motivation was you have some concerns for the future of capitalism Because to some extent inherent in capitalism is a dynamism and a creativity that can lead to some destructive qualities I think that's a 100% right data You know it's like a coin with two sides economists policy makers business people we often talk about the growth and dynamism side of capitalism that's why we're in the game It's hugely important The flip side of its disruption on many of us frankly most of us win from a lot of the disruptions I talk about in the book but not everybody And I think we have to notice those who have been left behind and figure out how do we get everybody to be able to participate in our economy not a new idea It was actually Adam Smith's idea We need to put the liberal back in neoliberalism Classical liberal that is awesome Let me ask you Glenn as an economist Dynamic capitalism inherently lead to increasing inequality I don't know about that but it certainly needs to generate churn and disruption You know many jobs and industries that exist today didn't exist a hundred years ago That's the good news The flip side of that is that people's livelihoods communities firms and industries can be at risk That too is not a bad thing as long as we prepare people You know when that was talked about the wealth of nations he talked about competition and openness And those are good things But I think if Smith were alive today he would talk about the ability to compete in the world we have with technological change in globalization Is everybody really at the starting line I think that's the inequality that would have worn SNP and should worry us Glenn in your book there's a lot of talk about dynamism creativity innovation and how important that is For a society for growth and for the individuals in it At the same time you have a distributive notion as well called mass flourishing that you actually go back to Adam Smith and say man as was consistent with Adam Smith talk to us about mass flourishing Well man's flourishing is more than GDP You know when Smith wrote the wealth of nations there was no GDP although he did talk about maximizing the size of output I also think that the smith of the theory of moral sentiments where he used an expression mutual sympathy and today we might call empathy I think the right economic ideas everybody in the world everybody participating everybody flourishing into the minds of the classical economists flourishing meant participating in the economy the ability to have meaningful work And I think that's really what the book is about How do you build bridges to that kind of work A bridge either takes you to somewhere or brings you back and taking you two could be preparing you for the jobs of today and tomorrow and taking you back is rethinking social insurance Do you have a way to reconnect people who fall out of the boat to the boat What if you knew for a certainty that in order to have truly mass flourishing you had to give up some of the dynamism Would you make that trade I wouldn't and that's the point of the book I think there are a number of people that I note in the book that Adam Smith with school if he were here today It suggests that you can just sort of haircut dynamism The real issue is compensating people who have been left behind We have old expressions in economics the same professor who told you that trade is good or technological advances are good He or she also told him that's because the gainers can compensate the losers And by compensation what I talk about is not writing people check or pinching them off But investing in getting people connect preparing people for work and preparing people who got left behind That's something we used to do in the country The land grant colleges of the 19th century the GI Bill of the 20th century I suggest ways we can bring those life to life today Glen Hubbard thank you so very much He's the author of this terrific fascinating and really important new book The wall in the bridge of course.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Will do the most people the most good which works better for everybody And there's no doubt in my mind capitalism And we're delighted to be joined now by one of our regular contributors here on Wall Street He's Glenn Hubbard former chairman of the council economic advisers certainly of Columbia business school And most important for this purpose the author of the new book the wall and the bridge Glen thank you so much for being back with us It's a fascinating book An important book In reading through it I have the strong sense Part of your motivation was you have some concerns for the future of capitalism Because to some extent inherent in capitalism is a dynamism and a creativity that can lead to some destructive qualities I think that's a 100% right David You know it's like a coin with two sides economists policymakers business people we often talk about the growth and dynamism side of capitalism that's why we're in the game It's hugely important The flip side of its disruption on many of us frankly most of us win from a lot of the disruptions I talk about in the book but not everybody And I think we have to notice those who have been left behind and figure out how do we get everybody to be able to participate in our economy not a new idea It was actually Adam Smith's idea We need to put the liberal back in neoliberalism Classical liberal that is awesome Let me ask you Glenn as an economist Dynamic capitalism inherently lead to increasing inequality I don't know about that but it's certainly needs to generate churn and disruption You know many jobs and industries that exist today didn't exist a hundred years ago That's the good news The flip side of that is that people's livelihoods communities firms and industries can be at risk That two is not a bad thing as long as we prepare people You know when that was talked about the wealth of nations he talked about competition and openness And those are good things But I think if Smith were alive today he would talk about the ability to compete in the world we have with technological change in globalization Is everybody really at the starting line I think that's the inequality that would have worried Smith and should worry us In your book there's a lot of talk about dynamism creativity innovation and how important that is For society for growth and for the individuals in it At the same time you have a distributive notion as well called mass flourishing that you actually go back to Adam Smith and say Maz was consistent with Adam Smith Talk to us about mass flourishing Well man's flourishing is more than GDP You know when Smith wrote the wealth of nations there was no GDP although he did talk about maximizing the size of output I also think that the smith of the theory of moral sentiments where he used an expression mutual sympathy And today we might call empathy I think the right economic ideas everybody in the book everybody participating everybody flourishing into the minds of the classical economists flourishing met participating in the economy the ability to have meaningful work And I think that's really what the book is about How do you build bridges to that kind of work A bridge either takes you to somewhere or brings you back and taking you two could be preparing you for the jobs of today and tomorrow and taking you back is rethinking social insurance Do you have a way to reconnect people who fall out of the boat to the moon What if you knew for a certainty that in order to have truly mass flourishing you had to give up some of the dynamism Would you make that trade I wouldn't and that's the point of the book I think there are a number of people that I note in the book that Adam Smith with school if he were here today It suggests that you can just sort of haircut dynamism The real issue is compensating people who've been left behind We have old expressions in economics the same professor who told you that trade is good or technological advances are good He or she also told you that's because the gainers can compensate the losers And by compensation what I talk about is not writing people Jack or pinching them all but investing in getting people connect preparing people for work and preparing people who got left behind That's something we used to do in the country The land grant colleges of the 19th century the GI Bill of the 20th century I suggest ways we can bring those life to life today Go on Hubbard Thank you so very much He's the author of this terrific fascinating and really important new book The wall in the bridge of course he's.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Than walls to protect workers that we really need In the wall and the bridge Hubbard proposes a series of private and government programs to help workers build a bridge to the future Because in the end even painful change is essential to capitalism which echoing Ken langone is the system that in the long run will do the most people the most good which works better for everybody And there's no doubt in my mind capitalism And we're delighted to join now by one of our regular contributors here in Wall Street He's Glenn Hubbard former chairman of the council economic advisers certainly of Columbia business school And most important for this purpose the author of the new book the wall and the bridge Glen thank you so much for being back with this It's a fascinating book an important book In reading through it I have the strong sense part of your motivation was you have some concerns for the future of capitalism Because to some extent inherent in capitalism is a dynamism and a creativity that can lead to some destructive qualities I think that's a 100% right data You know it's like a coin with two sides economists policy makers business people we often talk about the growth and dynamism side of capitalism that's why we're in the game It's hugely important The flip side of its disruption on many of us frankly most of us win from a lot of the disruptions I talk about in the book but not everybody And I think we have to notice those who have been left behind and figure out how do we get everybody to be able to participate in our economy not a new idea It was actually Adam Smith's idea We need to put the liberal back in neoliberalism Classical liberal that is awesome Let me ask you Glen as an economist Dynamic capitalism and inherently lead to increasing inequality I don't know about that but it's certainly needs to generate churn and disruption You know many jobs and industries that exist today didn't exist a hundred years ago That's the good news The flip side of that is that people's livelihoods communities firms and industries can be at risk That too is not a bad thing as long as we prepare people You know when Adam Smith talked about the wealth of nations he talked about competition and openness And those are good things But I think if Smith were alive today he would talk about the ability to compete in the world we have with technological change in globalization Is everybody really at the starting line I think that's the inequality that would have worried Smith and should worry us In your book there's a lot of talk about dynamism creativity innovation and how important that is For a society for growth and for the individuals in it At the same time you have a distributive notion as well called mass flourishing that you actually go back to Adam Smith and say man this was consistent with Adam Smith Talk to us about mass flourishing Well mass flourishing is more than GDP When Smith wrote the wealth of nations there was no GDP although he did talk about maximizing the size of output I also think the smith of the theory of moral sentiments where he used an expression mutual sympathy that today we might call empathy I think the right economic ideas everybody in the book everybody participating everybody flourishing into the minds of the classical economists flourishing met participating in the economy the ability to have meaningful work And I think that's really what the book is about How do you build bridges to that kind of work A bridge either takes you to somewhere or brings you back and taking you two could be preparing you for the jobs of today and tomorrow and taking you back is rethinking social insurance Do you have a way to reconnect people who fall out of the boat to the moon What if you knew for a certainty that in order to have truly mass flourishing you had to give up some of the dynamism Would you make that trade I wouldn't and that's the point of the book I think there are a number of people that I note in the book that Adam Smith would school if he were here today It suggests that you can just sort of haircut dynamism The real issue is compensating people who've been left behind We have old expressions in economics the same professor who told you that on trade is good or technological advances are good He or she also told you that's because the gainers can compensate the losers And by compensation what I talk about is not writing people check or pinching them all but investing in getting people connect preparing people for work and preparing people who got left behind That's something we used to do in the country The land grant colleges of the 19th century the GI Bill of the 20th century I suggest ways we can bring those life to life to that Go on Hubbard Thank you so very much He's the author of this terrific fascinating and really important new book The wall in the bridge of course he is from Columbia.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In politics as we focus today on one of the biggest unfinished items of the year in Washington filling the empty seats on the Federal Reserve Joining us to talk about it is Joe lavonia chief economist of the Americas at natixis and former chief economist on The White House national economic council Joe it's good to have you back What's taking so long That's a very good question I guess you'd have to ask the president but there are three open seats and there are also two president seats that are open and while the administration doesn't have the direct influence on those seats I'm sure there are people in the administration that would like those filled as well What I can tell you Joe if you look at the composition of the FOMC and 2021 versus 2022 you wind up losing some very dovish or I should say market friendly Presidents and the committee will become more hawkish So there certainly is an incentive for the administration to put forward the candidates they want And my guess is they would do so in a way to try to blunt the hawkishness or I should say less dovishness that's likely to be on the committee next year Well that's gonna be an interesting line to walk right Because here you have an administration that wants to make good with progressive Democrats looking for diversity looking for a new approach on the fed but you've also got inflation knocking on the door Yes you've got inflation knocking on the door I mean I remember that when I studied monetary policy back in school we learned that the fed funds rate was a very blunt tool Since then the fed's tools kit has expanded largely Jurassic purchases but they're certainly limits to what monetary policy can do And one of the problems the administration is going to face in 22 if they want to get all three people filled is getting Senate confirmation and if they wind up going with somebody who is who is more extreme we saw for example what happened with the comptroller of the currency That's going to be very difficult for them to fill all three of those spots So they may have to pick more of a centrist or maybe a center left leaning economist type to maybe get it through the Congress Because it's going to be hard to get all three through right now I guess that's the good problem in having three seats to fill here although it does also seem that progressives and namely senator Elizabeth Warren who's driven this as a political issue on Capitol Hill are really zeroing in on this supervisory role That's the one that will be judged Joey The supervisory role is important having said that brainerd who basically had that role has not been elevated to the vice chair and she does work quite closely and from everything I've seen in red works very well with Jay Powell So that revision role is important but that's some continuity there in terms of the key people Still running the fed are there So maybe that's the push maybe the push is going to be trying to get somebody on the supervisory side So if the P's one faction of the party but you still need good people on the monetary side ultimately I think that's what matters Well let's throw a couple of names around Joe Lavon we see the short lists They're pretty consistent based on where you're looking or depending on where you're looking William spriggs appears to be on most all of them Chief economist at the AFL CIO economics professor Howard University gives you good feelings or concerns about confirmation when you hear that name Look the administration hasn't called me to ask who I would say We did that You did that exactly but there are some people who I think would be very very good in the governor role who would potentially be a lot less provocative or much easier Much less of a fight I'm thinking someone for example is hypothetical item talk to them about this I don't know him But Jason Ferdinand for example adjacent to me seems very reasonable I don't agree with everything he says by any means but Jason Rand the accounts economic advisers under president Obama and he seems like a very thoughtful reasonable person So if someone like him would be would be my choice I know Jared Bernstein I haven't talked to him in a while I know he's also now the council economic advisers under President Biden And I kind of like you're going to go left I like sort of a little bit center left And that will kind of be my thought I'm not sure whether the gentleman you mentioned would go through So easily it'd probably be a fight and the fact that case you might only get one person through not two other Well it's interesting because I was gonna ask you what you thought of those with actual fed experience When we talk about people like Sarah bloom Raskin for instance or even Raphael bostick's name keeps coming up as well That's right Look to me we talk about diversity and things of that sort and you want breadth aggressive experience And too often in the past we had sort of fed people of just one similar PhDs from saltwater schools who had a lot of academic experience but not the other stuff So pick somebody maybe has never been in academia It's in the private sector Let's try that There are a lot of people I'm sure that would do it Comes from banking or not Sure I mean you've got three spots but I would think banking I mean given the fact that fed is the primary banking regulator effectively although due respect to the FDIC and the comptroller the currency if that is the main entity the main governing body the main regulatory body I should say Wouldn't you want somebody from the private sector to give you a different set of views that would not say the private sector is always right but they would at least have some sympathy or understanding with how the sector works And I would think you'd kind of want that breath I mean people seem to like Jay Powell is almost certainly going to go through with flying colors Jay has a private sector background He doesn't get that similar mold Maybe we should have another person like him What will these confirmations look like We're not talking about the fed share Obviously these are lower level positions but very important ones within the Central Bank but not household names These aren't household jobs like a secretary of labor for instance where people are going to be sitting in their living room watching these confirmation hearings But of course Joe the markets will be watching The markets will be watching and I think back my days when I was at the fed and I learned how government sometimes works and it's sort of like sometimes the smaller the stakes the bigger the fight and while these people are very well ultimately may not be household names There is a midterm coming next year We all know we know there's a lot of division at divisiveness and I can't help but think unfortunately we're going to fight over this Even though we like to fill these spots I think it's going to be hard to get all three and my concern would be the administration moves in a more progressive further left vein and that doesn't allow them to get the people they want confirmed and by default will not allow them to fill all the seats So basically the midterms I think are going to throw a kibosh on things Interesting To extrapolate all of this and look ahead to.
Bloomberg Radio New York
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Doesn't come to me to say what should my political strategy be Exactly He's got those antenna better than anybody else in this dwelling over there When he comes to me is talk to me about how we can relink economic growth productivity and the prosperity of the American middle class That kind of connective tissue that policy is what he comes to his economic team for to the members of the council economic advisers and national economic domestic policy council were all working to try to craft the economic tissue to reconnect growing GDP and the well-being of the American middle class And if you tick through the building block better agenda you will see that on every line Good union jobs in improving the climate Healthcare helping to be more affordable for families prescription drug costs coming down Child care elder care educational accessibility Key issues for middle class family that's what he comes to his economic team for Let's talk about build back better and trying to keep a democratic majority in the House and the Senate I know that's not your remit at The White House but what is so important Jared Bernstein is the calendar How long are you giving What's your timeline I'm Long Beach in LA to improve and get the sub Are we talking weeks to fix this months You know I was just gonna go into the primary season of the 2022 election You know my understanding is that these changes are taking place as we speak We've got Walmart UPS FedEx Samsung Home Depot and target talking about moving an additional 3500 containers a week off of the ports into trucks with chassis and onto warehouses and then on to shelves So this is fast acting intervention Longer term that's where the building back better agen that comes in and look again I'm going back to this The absence of investment in public goods both in human capital in education and healthcare and climate and in concrete public capital bridges potholes clean water systems for the longer term if we're going to address the supply side shortfalls that we're seeing here in a microcosm and a lasting way then we have to pass lasting legislation to do So and that's the infrastructure plan and building back better Doctor Bernstein thank you so much for joining us This first conversation after the president's speeches this has been wonderful for Bloomberg radio And Bloomberg television Back to you please All right Tom keen there in our D.C. bureau as you heard him say there with White House counsel of economic advisers member Jared Bernstein They are from The White House And it is all about global transportation supply chain bottlenecks That is the conversation certainly front and center but interesting how it again turned to politics in terms of the infrastructure program and plan that President Biden and his team are trying to get through Exactly Yeah doctor Bernstein of The White House council of economic advisers very quickly connecting the two issues and saying hey this is why we need to pass this plan and the build back better plan as well Yeah talking about investments needed for supply chain resiliency All right you are listening to Bloomberg business We care master Tim's denim Let's go check on the world of business A look at the trading day here is Charlie I thank you very much Carol mass with 34 minutes to.
Vox's The Weeds
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds
"Trench of national bureau of economic research papers that this other one came from we have a new joint from anne case and angus deaton. This is the team that has popularized the concept of deaths of despair other newspaper. I don't think breaks a ton of new ground analytically. They sort of repeat their basic finding that. There is a divide based on educational attainment in mortality related to overdoses and suicides. They link this to a rise in subjectively reported pain but in this paper they get very angry. Student has a nobel prize. So i think people make certain ordinances for him that a younger economist would not get. He makes some sweeping claim. Causal claims that he doesn't provide detailed evidence for but then. I think a lot of people agree with him about right so one thinks he says in. Here's for many less educated americans. The economy and society are no longer providing the basis for a good life and he says we examined quote the politics of despair. How less educated people have abandoned and been abandoned by the democratic party so in other words like he's painting a very strong picture here right where it's not people got richer than they used to be so they drive more and they eat more snacks but they're not so rich and so chill that they have time for a lot of cross fit. It's like life has become miserable for working class people in a way. That wasn't true thirty years ago which is forced them into these lives of agonizing pain despair in which again like they didn't like decide to vote republican because disagreed with democrats and immigration. They abandoned have been abandoned by the democratic party and he says while healthier states once voted republican in presidential elections. Now the least healthy states do. It's is very big sort of macro political feces. That i feel like. I don't know i feel like a lot of people sympathize with including people on both the right and the last for different reasons because it paints a sort of populist tableau of certain things but i don't really think that it's right. I mean like incomes for working class. Americans are not lower than they were in the past the big growth in inequality happened in the eighties and economic inequality it hasn't reversed since then But it hasn't exploded during this period of of divergence. I i mean i guess my feeling looking. At the international comparisons is the explosion of the opioid epidemic is really about drug policy in the united states that there lots of countries that have you know deindustrialization to one degree or another and it has not like automatically caused people in northern france to become hooked on painkillers. And then when the painkiller supply is cut off to switch defend. No you know like the economic trends are global. I mean come on the you. Know more about destruct situation than i do but like am i off base here or is this more specifically like drugs related issue. No i think you're right and in fact there has been some research on the steps of despair question before and when you look at where opioid overdose deaths. Were drug overdose. Deaths in general were hit hardest. The economy does like bunch of economic variables like from income inequality to just general prosperity. General poverty rates do not seem to correlate very well with drug overdose deaths within the us. What does correlate is. How many painkillers flowing to these places at least early on during the crisis since we've changed since the us changed defend. No more instead of painkillers for strug fix the. The stuff has changed but in general. Yeah it doesn't really seem to be that it's like the economy driving this lake. I've actually talked case indeed in about this before and the way they described as like. Oh yes sure. We're just saying that the economy like adds fuel to the fire. And like sodas extra supply painkillers and so do other variables and so on and so on. But honestly i've looked at this more. And more i just don't really buy this debts of despair connection and in general. I mean over the last year with kobe you saw this decoupling of suicides and drug overdose deaths like drug overdose. Deaths continue to rise quickly quickly in the us but suicide said not which i think surprised. A lot of people are expected mental health issues which shoot up well especially. We can still didn't self reported depression increase as predicted but suicides do not. Yeah at least at first the the thing is that seem to level off over time mystical kind of got accustomed to being locked down in all of that and when you look at that it's like okay like at the very least you should be ask yourself. Maybe there are different things driving these translate. They can't be connected and it's just really complicated the picture and look especially when you're looking at the. Us europe gap like obesity is a big part of that and like just because of all the heart issues that causes and all the other health issues that causes and that's not part of the deaths of despair narrative the desktop despair narrative is alcohol drugs and suicide and all these things are bad but like alcohol are not higher in the us and they aren't certain parts of europe like their alcohol. Deaths are big problem. In certain parts of europe drug overdose deaths are higher but again they might not be driven by the economy so much. Just like poor regulation leading to a flood of painkillers across the country and then suicides like yes. It's a big problem and they definitely have increased over the past few decades. But they don't really seem to be tied on what happened in the covert pandemic to all these other issues. So i don't know. I think like the desa despair narrative. It's nice to us like as a quick description of these different types of deaths were talking about but i've become increasingly skeptical. That can really explain anything useful as we look at. Life expectancy in the us. Yeah and i think that the debts despair thing is specifically interesting when you think about it in terms of supply rather than like are people just despairing because it actually tracks with other things that we already think about regarding why americans mortality as higher like it's not that american drivers necessarily just like worse like we have higher speed limits and we don't have other options of people are crashing more of for people to take other kinds of public transportation relative to other european cities. You know we see higher. Murder rates not because americans are uniquely a bunch more violent than our european counterparts. It's that we have a lot of guns available and so like those confrontations can turn deadly a lot easier in the united states and so like thinking about that in terms of the death. Despair thing i mean. It's not as catchy to say it's like debts of supply but like that's like feels much more like a reasonable interpretation of the data. Especially when i was. I was thinking about this earlier this year. When casey mulligan who was trump's council economic advisers he put out this paper that showed that desa despair were higher than cova deaths like very early in the pandemic and like this is not something that out but what i ended up looking into is that you know one of the big reasons that people were seeing an increase in drug overdoses in particular..
Squawk Pod
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Squawk Pod
"I'm cnbc producer. Cameron kosta today on our podcast. It's jobs friday a big jobs report but a small really small jobs number a mere two hundred and thirty five thousand jobs added in august but it may not be as bad as it seems former chair of the council economic advisers. Jason furman built as having about three percent as much impact on the economy as the first wave of the virus. Did a team of economists breakdown. America's hiring landscape co variants still weighing on the economy and on our health former. Fda commissioner dr scott gottlieb leap. I think that there's a perception that we're sort of through this delta wave here in the northeast i don't think that that was the true delta wave i think that that was a delta warning i think are true delta waves going to start to build after labor day. Here in the northeast. Those stories plus kathy would makes a call on electric vehicles and chips in short supply. This is the other chip. But for some reason every time i read it. I'm thinking of what i'm really worried about. And that is you know if any of the toes are in short supply as football does doritos. Okay homer it's friday. September third twenty one. Squawk pod begins right now becky by in three two one place. Good morning. Welcome to squawk box here on cnbc. I'm becky quick. Along with joe kernan andrew is off. Today it's friday. It is indeed friday but not just any friday. It's jobs friday. The first friday of the month aka the day the labor department reveals how many jobs were added to the us economy the month before. But that's not all this particular jobs report. The one for august was critical for the federal reserve. They're trying to decide. When to taper the bond purchases they started last year to bolster a us economy rocked by cove. Nineteen so the big jobs number increased a miniscule two hundred and thirty five thousand. Not so big a number. In fact economists were expecting or in hindsight it kind of seems like they were hoping for at least seven hundred. Twenty thousand jobs added this two hundred thirty. Five number is the lowest level of growth since january of twenty twenty. Here's our senior economics. Reporter steve. policemen. Let me tell you where we didn't have jobs. Goose said a big goose egg on leisure off metality. That was what we had pointed out earlier. This week was the place that may have seen the delta variant effect. We had a retail minus twenty eight and a half thousand another big disappointment transportation up fifty three but that was not that has been stronger in the past. The big miss on the one of the parts of the big on the part of the private sector forecasters was the expectation of the a huge influx of workers in the education area. The private sector education did add forty thousand. But when i look at it. I'm going to double check this number here again. The local education it was it was minus five point seven on local and minus twenty on state. I have read reports. Becky expecting two hundred plus thousand on the education so there might be a little bit of mismatch. That would make this miss. Not that bad because there is some expectation that we'll be hiring it doesn't appear to have been caught up or maybe it was a papered over by the seasonal adjustments. So i don't think it's wrong to think that the misses not as bad as you see as it seems from the headline but it's still a mess. It's still suggests we had i think clearly a delta variant affect nealer richardson chief economist at payroll and hr company adp explained. Why it's not that there isn't a hiring demand out there but there are still these. Lingering issues concerns and the lack of full-time affordable childcare never have spoken about childcare in the jobs market so much together because they are so critically important and right now we're dealing with the bus driver shortage another aspect of whole scenario of getting kids back to school which is critical for working families. You're really seeing the timing. Mismatch co the theaters. And the fact that there is a deceleration in economic growth going on in the second. Half of the year is all consulting so originally as i said. Economists were looking at this number closely because the federal reserve was going to be looking at it closely. Have we recovered enough for the fed to pull back on. Its efforts to buoy the us economy. Here's steve liebmann again. I think that the fed is gonna pass on taper announcing taper this this month so time will tell the unemployment rate ticked down two tenths of a percent progress. But not nearly as much as we'd all expected here's jason furman chief economist and cabinet member for president obama. I think there's no question that the delta virus is taking a toll on the economy. What's interesting is how much tinier that toll on. The economy is than the toll. It's actually taking on health. We're headed pretty rapidly to daily death toll from delta that exceeds the death toll that we had in april from the first wave. But then you look at these numbers. Delta may be subtracted. I don't know six hundred thousand jobs that we would have had absent delta that we didn't have last time around we lost twenty million jobs delta's having about three percent as much impact on the economy as the first wave of the virus did people are labor. Markets are still pretty tight on this more than ten million job openings job openings. Keep rising one of the big data points. This month was wages up. Zero point. six percent on that is a tight labor market with a lot more openings than unemployed and that also means we're poised to add you know a lot of jobs in the coming months as people either get over their fears of delta. The delta virus starts to fall or time starts to search to fix all of this. This is not the blockbuster progress we saw in july. But the economy's still moving in the right direction as jason said employers are still looking to hire becky spoke with katie. George mckenzie's economist. We are really seeing a new war for talent. And i'm employers are working very hard to attract new workforce editions and really changing the way they think about their employees value propositions what what does that mean. They really have to to pay up offer. More benefits compete with other companies to get that same group of workers all of that but what we see is the front runners are really playing a long game and what i mean by. That is really investing in workforce training and skill development and long-term meaning that these are employees. They don't want to have turnover. They wanna make sure that they are hiring and keeping these people around for years to come it exactly. I think we're seeing more and more a sense. That the kind of attrition we've seen right now is really unhealthy and that people are trying to create jobs that are jobs today but careers long-term so it's creating a problem for employers right now. I mean you hear statistics. Something like seventy percent of people want a new job this year and employers are worried because that's actually having an impact right now absolutely because obviously losing employees who are loyal and to have the skills that are required.
The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
"council economic advisers" Discussed on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell
"You don't hear. Economists say very often. What is i can. Here's something you've never heard any economist say quote. I have yet to find a blemish in this jobs report. I've never before seen such a wonderful set of economic data. That is what harvard professor. Jason furman said about the july jobs report and now the employment picture is looking even better joining us now. Is jason furman former chairman of the council economic advisers for president obama. He's currently professor of the practice of economic policy at harvard's kennedy school professor firm and i have to say In all of my hours in classrooms with economics professors. I don't ever remember the word wonderful being used for anything. It's called the dismal science for a reason what what is going on here. You know eight thirty. Am the jobs numbers. come out. i open the second. They come out the first number. I saw nine hundred forty three thousand jobs. That's just a really high number. I then went and checked about eleven. other numbers. The labor force participation rate the black unemployment rate the wage number. The number of people working part-time every one of those numbers improved in the month of july All moving in the direction we want them to move and we have unemployment. Go ahead employment number now. It were still in the pandemic. It's just extraordinary. Yup i mean if you'd asked me a year ago you would last me. Six months ago i would have thought it would take a lot longer to get to where we are now. We're definitely not all the way there. We have a lot to go on. The unemployment rate right now is five point four percent prior to the pandemic. It was three and a half percent. There's no reason we can't get back there Hopefully we can get a lot of the way back there by the end of this year but after the damage the economy went through last year It's healing more quickly than we've seen in previous recessions. Many which weren't as bad as this recession was and there is more fuel coming to the economy. If the infrastructure package gets through congress in whole or in part yeah absolutely and i think the president has build back better and he says build back better for a reason if we could return the economy. Exactly where it was in february. Twenty twenty That would be pretty good but it wouldn't be good enough on. That was an economy that had a lot of inequality that had not enough opportunities for people to work too many children not in preschool and of course an economy that wasn't on green enough so all of those things need to change. We don't just need to repair the damage A lot of what's coming next is to build something better and of course in the nature of infrastructure spending. It's not it's not a one year spending program the this kind of building go goes on for many years. The the building that will be authorized By the infrastructure bill and then the economic benefits of that of that work go on for years after the construction itself was completed. Yeah that's exactly right and it's such a great opportunity right now. A lot of this is being paid for The president has proposed tax increases on high income households and some Rollback of the corporate rate reduction of president trump. but also. Frankly i think we can borrow on. The federal government can borrow at a one point three percent rate right now. That's actually lower than the inflation rate and so when you're making an investment. The question is is that investment going to pay off over time. is it going to create economic growth. Is it worth the cost to that borrowing and there's an awful lot of investments that pass that test well and another thing built into the cost of this infrastructure. Bill is that there haven't been infrastructure bills for several years so if you've neglected the maintenance if you if you've the upkeep of course it's going to be more expensive than than doing regular maintenance yeah that's exactly right again you look at the federal debt. The federal debt doesn't include deferred maintenance. It doesn't include The cost of not investing in children and children that don't go to preschool. Don't grow up and succeed and have the earnings that they'd otherwise have so we have a whole lot of costs out there. In part of what. We're this is doing is recognizing them Addressing them sooner. And that's a smarter. More cost effective thing to do professor jason furman. Thank you very much for joining us tonight. Always appreciate it. Thank you coming up. The delta variant has.
Vox's The Weeds
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds
"Today this is all worth bringing up because we have some reforms in this regard coming in big cities and sort of push back against single family zoning and that is very there's a classic libertarian critique of zoning and worked on by ed glaser other bright of center people on this subject is the red states. Tend to have laxer land-use regimes but i mean jerusalem. I know you've covered a lot. That sort of bristol justice considerations. I think have motivated a lot of people in blue states and blue cities to rethink some of this and i do think historically least like that is correct. That's like the right way to look at the origin of these systems and potentially a good reason to look at revising them or pulling down. I think just pulling on the thread that you ended with last segments idea like what happens with nuisances and what happens with nuisance law in general and i think that the existence of this kind of case law leads to like absolutely absurd behavior of the story while back about how essentially there's the city maplewood missouri where they essentially said that you have to have like an occupancy permit in order to live in that place and if you don't you're not allowed to rent or own anything within the city limits and then they had another ordinance which basically was like this nuisance ordinance which basically qualified calling nine one one if you are a woman who is experiencing domestic violence also is a nuisance and so you would have people who were experiencing domestic violence calling the police and you would get your occupancy permit revoked and you would essentially be kicked out of town. You're not allowed to live not place legally and there's a lot of this being documented that desmond looks at this in wisconsin and you know he has an absolute absurd story. He finds where basically the conversation with nuisance is between the property owner and the city and the state. So what ends up happening. Is that the police. Contact the landlord and say hey. Your tenant keeps calling the cops because she has an abusive partner you to figure out a way to make the stop or you'll have to victor and the landlord replies in email to the city official. Yeah i advised her to get a and shoot him. she hasn't so i'm going to victor. And so when you have these types of nuisance laws is idea that like nuisances or anything. That could bother. Essentially upper middle class white homeowners that includes anything from i hear someone else is experiencing abuse to as matt points out parking lots and i think that a lot of these things are unintended consequences of a legal regime that prioritizes the slight irritations of wealthy and connected homeowners over general social welfare. And as as i mentioned. You're seeing a lot of this. Change be pushed by this hope for racial justice. it's happened in minneapolis. You're seeing in california. You're seeing this. in connecticut. And other states across the country you even see the council economic advisers at the white house and the department of housing urban development couch a lot of this language in racial justice language. And it's very clearly correct when you look at the historiographer that this is a massive racial dust issue but because it's become so encoded in how we view property rights. It's now a class issue. It's now agenda rights issue when you're looking at what's happening to victims investing violence. It has spiraled the point where there are so many ways to criminalize behavior to the point. Where the state has potentially reasonable justification for zoning out that nuisance. Yeah i mean. I it critique. The idea of unintended consequences a little bit. Because it's something that. I was thinking a lot about in prepping for this episode. Because like if you look at the macro history of decades before the civil rights act the supreme court said you can't do explicit racial segregation. But you can do facially neutral things that achieve the same ends and a bunch of jurisdiction said great will do just that like it casts. What happens after the passage of the civil rights. Act in a different light right because it means that we're not discovering for the first time that facially neutral laws as a successor to explicitly. Racist laws can perpetuate the exact same inequities like that is something that could have been visible at that point and so i think the further we go on the time machine the harder it is to not play hindsight game. I struggled with that with this episode. Just like i struggled with it with the last episode but it is at a certain point worth pointing out that like the facts on the ground. Were there at the time. And so what got strategically ignored. And what assumptions were being made on the part of the law's proponents that the tools they recruiting would be used in. Good faith or worth interrogating the other thing. That i think is important is like yeah okay. This specific consequences of any given nuisance. Ordinance might not be foreseeable at the time because you haven't created ordinance yet but it's generally true that who gets to decide is an implicit question of all public policy. Like you were saying you know earlier jerusalem that it kind of is incumbent on policymakers to think about what would this tool look like when wielded by people whose idea of the good or idea of what is in nuisance or whatever doesn't jibe with nine the problem is that especially at the local level. It's really hard to abstract the policy process to that degree because so often things happen because of a very committed group of citizens who are absolutely convinced that a problem is the most important problem. D their proposed solution will solve it that too abstract. Not just to the level of like how can we adjudicate between various stakeholders which is often the process by which policy gets made but also. How can we future-proof this so that it doesn't create massively skating. Unintended consequences for people whose definition of the good is different from ours. Like there is a certain extent to which that's a difficult thing to do but it also is a reasonable standard to hold policymakers to well and on the subject of unintended consequences. A few months ago. I was organic piece and i was ready to mention offhandedly that the post world war two crackdown on rooming houses in which widows are empty nesters would like rent out spare rooms in their place. I was gonna say that. This had these dire unintended consequences in increasing homelessness but the american citing planning officials has done this really nice thing that they should probably actually undo. Which is they post like. They're all documents up on their website and they're invariably horrifying and they have this nine hundred fifty seven report on like why said you should crack down on rooming houses. I think intellectuals like unintended consequences stories. And so i had this idea that it was like well. These were supposed to make living conditions better for the people living in rooming houses but it had the unintended consequence of pushing people onto the streets abbott. They actually just say look many rumors real down in out and the atmosphere of a rooming house in which they predominate is likely to be bleak and that hundreds of zoning ordinances have loopholes that permit group living arrangements and so they were just like encouraging cities to get rid of these down in adar's because they were just like bad people and you should get rid of them and if you don't have them living in your town your town's going to be better off and this even sense in which that's true right to darris point about who decides for some definition of down and auvers if you have some down and outer is living in your town that creates a challenge for your social service provision versus. If you have a rule that says that like only rich people can live in your town that makes life a lot easier for like your teachers and your school principals..
Masters in Business
"council economic advisers" Discussed on Masters in Business
"In business with berry renolds on bloomberg radio this week. I have an extra special guest. His name is brian. He is the director of the national economic council at the white house and essentially the chief economic advisor to president biden previously. He was the global head of sustainable investing at black rock. And he was president obama's senior adviser for climate and energy policy. Brian deese welcome back to masters in business. Thanks very it's great to be here. So so let's start with your role. In this new administration you are the thirteenth director of the national economic council. I think most people are more familiar with the council of economic advisers. Tell us a little bit about this group. What it does and how it differs from the ca. So the key. The national council was created by executive order in the early nineteen nineties with the goal of having a white house entity that could coordinate economic policy on behalf of the president the Some people think about the way. But i think the more natural analogue is the national security council so the national security council existed in the white house as a way of coordinating policy on national security and foreign policy issues. The national economic council was modeled to do the same for For both domestic and international economic priorities. So if you go back and you read the executive order that was created in the early nineteen nineties if holds pretty true today. So what does that mean number. One how they see Effective way to coordinate and aggregates abuse of all of the key economic policy principals. The secretary of the treasury the chair. The council economic advisers are commerce secretary labor secretary And down the line create common table around which we can debate and discuss and provide the president queer policy recommendations and clear economic advice and at the same time have a coordinated way to take direction from the president about his views at his His direction on the economy and drive across a broad interagency of the executive branch. You to your question. About the council of economic advisers the council's economic advisers is designed as a mostly an internal think tank of economists and experts. Many of whom come out of academia and spend one or two years at the council and provide a an analytical base and economic base to think through issues do provide analysis And really kind of a thought center like counselors really designed to coordinate bringing those views to the table but also Connecting them to the legislative and political realities that we're operating in to try to get the best outcomes possible and services the presence goals so so let's talk a little bit about Your boss the president and some of his goals last week. He signed an executive order to quote promote competition in the american economy. We've kind of become used to these sort of one. Pager photo ops for executive orders but that was not what this was it. It's a seven thousand word. Seventy two bullet point document and and it's very serious policy initiative. Tell us what was the thinking behind rolling out this new policy this way. Well i appreciate you counting words and actions that because we we're certainly focused On that as well. We're really excited about this executive order and it's based on a kind of very simple but important intuition which is that having fair and open. Competition is a fundable fundamental ingredient of a healthy capitalist economy. It's what actually drives better outcomes. Lower prices higher wages more innovation more economic growth and so the core goal of this executive order is to reset across the entire executive branch of focus on wearing in. What ways can we encourage healthy competition in service of achieving those outcomes lower prices higher wages more innovation. And what we've seen across time is that Our economy has gotten less competitive We have a larger number of our industries that are now more concentrated than they were. Twenty or thirty years ago we've seen the rate of new business formation particularly small business fall formation fall by almost fifty percent Since the nineteen seventies. and if you look across industries whether it's you know in in meat-packing or in broadband internet Consumers choices have been constrained. And we haven't seen that kind of the follow through benefit that at least has been argued by folks who say you know. More consolidation will actually generate lower prices for consumers. We haven't seen that either. In fact if you aggregate up the impact of consolidation to an american household in terms of prices and wages And other attendant costs you know. The best estimates are that it's costing about five thousand dollars a year for the typical household so the goal of this executive orders to say. How can we start to get at that. And fundamentally this is this is this is not about being pro business or any businesses about being pro competition. A lot of the ideas in this executive order are actually deregulatory in nature trying to remove some barriers to entry that actually keep workers For more effectively moving and competing for jobs or new businesses to enter into new markets and grow and gain market share a assault. So that's the that's that's the high level that's our goal but you're right We wanted to take a really serious effort to go agency by agency and look where where the challenges. What are the tools that we have. And how can we advance the ball. It looks different in different agencies. There's a lot To unpack here. But that's the goal to tell you. That's shocking number. The lack of competition caused by industry. Consolidation and concentration cost the average american family. Five thousand dollars a year that that's a giant number when you when you just down you know. That's that's a if you you know. But i also would say embedded in that is a big opportunity because if we can actually break down some of those barriers and we can encourage competition. What that means is that we have a way of Actually boosting economic outcomes for the typical family in a significant way. But that sounds pretty esoteric. But you break it down into very practical things Something like hearing today. You need to get a prescription. Do you need to go to a.