20 Episode results for "Congressional Budget Office"
US Economy Could Be Affected for A Decade Due to Coronavirus
"You're listening to the news at this time. When Africa Business Radio according to projections by the Congressional Budget Office the drag on the US. Economy from the virus DEMOC will last almost A. It forecast. The outbreak will call choose economic output by three percent between this year and twenty thirty a loss off seven point nine trillion Donnas, the weren't incomes extensive millions of people out of work due to lockdown measures. America's historic downturn comes even after trillions of dollars happened been pumped into the economy. The nonpartisan. CBO said the majority of the loss was caused by the shop contraction in economic activity this year rich it's had not predicted in the last ten year reports published in January. And that was the knees at this time on Africa business. Really you can continue to this in life. Online at www does advocate business radio. That's COM or by I'm able APP. Thank you for listening.
Midday Brief for Monday, January 28th
"Uh-huh. I'm Jay r Wayland in the newsroom at the Wall Street Journal in New York stocks fell sharply in early trading Monday as key technical and industrial companies reported disappointing earnings among companies reporting was Caterpillar, which warned of lower than expected profits for two thousand nineteen the lower earnings follow lackluster economic data at of China and the euro zone in recent weeks. A Congressional Budget Office says the government shutdown that ended on Friday will cost the government about three billion dollars and subtract about four tenths of a percentage point from annualized GDP in the first quarter. The nonpartisan groups have the shutdown damp and economic activity mainly because of the roughly three hundred eighty thousand furloughed workers who weren't contributing to GDP as well as the delay in federal spending on goods and services and the reduction in overall demand and Facebook is taking action to fend off interference in the European Union's parliamentary election campaign this spring. It's part of a broader effort of the social media giant defend against politically motivated in. Fearance as test. Also, the company's response to allege Russian interference in the US election in two thousand sixteen for more on these and other stories of the day, go to wsJcom or the WSJ app.
CBO Predicts Budget Deficit Will Reach Nearly $1 Trillion This Year
"One trillion dollars that is where the federal budget deficit will be next fiscal year according to the congressional budget office this growing gap between what the government government takes in and what it spends has been fueled by the 2017 tax cuts also the recent budget deal that increased domestic and military spending and also also the chilling economic effects of tariffs phillips waigel director of the congressional budget office delivered this news yesterday and he joins me this morning. Thanks for coming on the program. Thanks david good morning good morning so when you put out the statement yesterday you use the word challenging to describe our country's fiscal outlook. You said the federal debt is on an unsustainable ainable course. Tell me more about why you're so concerned we the the congressional budget office project what's going to happen with federal spending and federal revenue and the result is you sit as the deficit and that leads to debt accumulating over time at some point the debt burden on the united states will be difficult tickled to sustain the financing that it will be difficult the effects of that debt on financial markets and therefore on the economy will be undesirable right will have higher higher interest rates that affect consumption affect investment. That's what we mean by unsustainable. I mean the economy seems so strong right now. By a lot of measures i mean the the interest rates are low the stock market with some you know some movement and still resilient the jobs numbers despite a downward correction seem pretty strong. I mean is is the deficit that much of a worry for you know a generally strong economy. <hes> you know that's the challenge in the sense of addressing the fiscal situation that as you said today the economy is strong we have low unemployment and we have very strong wage. Growth and importantly wage growth is especially strong for people at the bottom of the wage distribution and interest rates are low so the there's no pressure to address the fiscal situation. This is a long term challenge. There's no simple solution. There's there's no quick solution but that's our job is to highlight what the challenges facing the nation including the long-term challenges are. I know there are economists to always make make the argument like stop worrying so much about the deficit and that that actually it can be like worrying can be inherently bad for the economy. I mean is there some truth to that and what your argument against that okay. No there absolutely is truth to that that when there's a financial crisis and recession that countries that respond with with a expansionary policy do better and it looks like the united states has the fiscal space to do that. Interest rates are low. The federal government is able to borrow oh so this is not an immediate crisis and a record yesterday does not say this is a crisis is a long term challenge so so if it's a long term challenge how much belt tightening should should the administration and lawmakers be considering in terms of getting to a place where you're comfortable that that the country is back on a good fiscal course <hes> so the congressional budget office supports the congress we provide the congress with analysis. We don't provide policy recommendations and that's our role. We say how much things cost how to address. It is is up to the members of congress and and the administration asian but in in terms of i know just your number crunching role i mean without any belt tightening is is there a risk that the situation could get much worse <hes> there. There is an instance. That's what we're trying to point out is that the fiscal changes involved are quite large that we will have to change spending or change revenues or some mixed the two by more than ten percent so imagine if it's all on the spending side federal government spending including everything all the transfers serves all the the discretionary spending everything would have to go down but a more than ten percent in on the revenue side is the same thing it'd be have to be more than a ten percent increase in the revenue that the federal government collects. It's a very large change. It doesn't have to be done all at once but that's the challenge of a fiscal adjustment. Yes meant an election. Cycle is not normally the time that that a president and lawmakers will make really hard decisions about belt-tightening but you seem to be saying that even if it had to wait like another year. Let's say for an election. It doesn't sound like it's urgent. As is that fair you know this is not an immediate crisis and again we see that in financial market interest rates are low in in fact the forecast that we just put out acknowledges that we marked down our projection of interest rates going forward and that has a large savings for for the federal government in terms of smaller interest payments even with a lower interest rates. The fiscal situation is still challenging. It's still unsustainable. Phillips waigel is director of the congressional budget office. <hes> thanks so much for your time. Now thank you.
Wall Street Breakfast September 5: What Moved Markets This Week
"I. Welcome to health his Wall Street breakfast your daily source of market news and analysis. Subscribe to this podcast on Apple. PODCASTS. PODCASTS spotify and stitcher. Today. Is Saturday September fifth and I'm your host. Steve Brown. Here's what moved markets this week. Stocks avoided back toback blowout losses Friday but couldn't quite close out the week with a game as a late afternoon rally fell short. The Dow closed one hundred fifty nine points lower after shedding as much as six hundred, twenty eight points, and then briefly edging into positive territory and the S. and P. Five hundred and Nasdaq also ended well above session lows. Technology. which was looking at its biggest two day drop since March climbed out of the basement among the sectors and financials led the market. Thanks to a rebound in rates following news of a bigger than expected decline in August jobless rate. For the week, the S&P slipped one point eight percent, the Dow dropped two point, three percent and the Nasdaq dropped three point seven percent. Early, this week shares of Tesla, soared as much as twenty percent to five hundred, thirty, three dollars after the company split its stock five for one while apple shares climbed ten percent to one, hundred, thirty, seven dollars following four for one split. The Games didn't last long news of a stock offering by Tesla as well as stake sale by its largest independent investor weighed heavily on the V maker while apple plunged alongside a major selloff on Thursday. In fact, the tech giant erased one, hundred, eighty, billion in value during the session, which is nearly the market cap size of McDonald's. Several European nations including the UK France and Italy have gone ahead with implementing digital services taxes on big tech as negotiations with the US fell apart months ago. As. The new taxes come into force. US giants responded by passing on some of the costs. Apple announced it will raise charges for developers on the local APP stores. Google is increasing fees for all ads bought in the UK, and Amazon is up in costs for third party sellers two percent. Google, and Apple said, they would build a covid nineteen notification system straight into smartphones eliminating the need for a separate APP and ramping up a new weapon in the effort to track exposure to the novel coronavirus. Future versions of. An android will feature the new system that previously required at made by public. Health Authority. The system will use Bluetooth signals from phones that have opted in to find out how closely at for how long two phones were near each other without collecting location or identity data. Prepare, for COVID, nineteen vaccine to be ready by November I. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared notifying public health officials in all fifty states and five large cities to prepare for distribution. Technical specifications were given for two candidates dubbed Vaccine a vaccine be including requirements for shipping, mixing storage, and administration. The details appear to match vaccines being developed by Pfizer and partner bio and tech, as well as Maderno which both required to shots twenty eight days apart. visor. Has also stated publicly that it is on track to seek an emergency use not as early as next month. The, read sector went on watch after the trump administration implemented a national moratorium on residential evictions through the end of the year. The new ban covers tenants who certify that they have lost substantial income that they expect to make no more than ninety, nine, thousand in two, thousand twenty or received a stimulus chick and that they are making their best efforts to pay as much of their rent as they can. When the moratorium expires at the end of two, thousand, twenty runners received protection will still need to make up his payments to their landlords. The Congressional Budget Office projected a federal budget deficit of point three, trillion in twenty twenty more than triple that of twenty nineteen shortfall mostly from the economic disruption caused by the covid nineteen pandemic and in the ensuing legislative response. In the fiscal year that begins on October first. Federal debt held by the American public is also projected to reach or exceed a percent of US GDP for the first time since World War. Two. that. Would put the US in an exclusive club of nations including Japan Greece and Italy, which all have debt loads that exceed their economies. Walmart is finally going head to head with Amazon via a nationwide membership program though the retailer says, the new service is really about doubling down with the customers we have and getting more share of wallet and more. Share of mind. The program which cost eight dollars annually for twelve ninety five, a month will launch on September fifteenth. The biggest difference Walmart plus customers will have to spend a minimum of thirty five dollars for each online order to avoid fees while rival Amazon prime doubts free two day and some same day shipping on every item. Twenty twenty has been the Year of questioning the traditional IPO process as companies look for cheaper ways to go public. There are only two other ways to get on an exchange SPEC merger, which is seen outside activity in recent months or direct listing where a company floats existing private shares. While a new plan by the SEC, last week removed one of the last major incentives to conduct an IPO via the traditional methodology by allowing capital raises for direct listings. A last ditch effort was made to block it. The. Council of Institutional Investors said, it would file a petition for review of the plan by the SEC's commissioners citing concerns the companies could circumvent protections built into the IPO process. If you enjoyed today's podcast, please be sure to rate and review it below your feedback is deeply appreciated. That concludes today's Wall Street breakfast. Thank you for listening for the best investment analysis the news on the web. Dot. com subscribe to this podcast on Apple podcast. Go PODCASTS spotify stitcher. You can sign up for our other podcasts behind the idea essay parentheses. Let's hope ups cannabis investing podcast and marketplace roundtable almost five phones as well. Have a great day.
How To Price A Government Shutdown
"There has been a lot of economic policy in roughly the last year, some of it has been very deliberate like when Republicans in congress and the president passed the big tax package at the end of two thousand seventeen and some economic policy was made as part of a broader negotiating strategy like the terrorists used by the Trump administration in its trade war with China where those terrorists are part of an attempt by the US to force China to agree to new trading terms. And then there was the US government shutdown that ended last Friday after five weeks, and this was this was just a mess. Not the way it was not not planned, but like those other policies the shutdown also had consequences for the US economy. And measuring those consequences is kinda why the Congressional Budget Office exists. The CBO is part of the government that provides analysis about the economy and the federal budget to congress, and it is nonpartisan which does not mean that everyone agrees. With the CBS conclusions. Nonpartisan does not mean, non polarizing. Oh nice. Yeah. But most everyone does take the CBO conclusion seriously. And that includes Stacey me, I'm Cardiff Garcia, and I'm Stacey Vanik Smith, and this is the indicator from planet money earlier this week the CBO released its estimates for how much direct damage the shutdown did to the US. So in a way, this is like the government's own in house analyst looking at the effects of that same government's own dysfunction. So today on the show we look at the cost of that dysfunction. What we know? And what we don't. Support for this podcast and the following message. Come from a sonnet Asana is work management software to help teams organize everything they do. So they can focus on the work that matters. Most try us on our free for thirty days. Get started at Asana dot com slash indicator. Support also comes from Yahoo. Finance live, eight hours of free. Live streaming news without cable or a subscription. Tune in for the news, you need about your money acceptable wherever you go. Okay. So first things first today's planet money indicator is three billion dollars. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the CBO the shutdown directly and permanently cost the US economy three billion dollars in lost economic activity. You can pretty much stop listening. Now if you want. Of other so many treasures to come. Yeah. VR podcast is on. Just kidding. Don't stop listening. That is only part of the story. We are now going to tell you the rest of it. So during the five weeks of the shutdown eight hundred thousand government workers were not being paid. And of those workers about three hundred thousand of them were told to stay home and not come into work. They were furloughed. So they were not providing the services that they usually provide the rest of the eight hundred thousand were still working they just weren't being paid. And so those workers also had less money to spend on all the stuff that people usually spend money on food and rent and entertainment and gasoline, it also a number of agencies within the government were not being fully funded during the shutdown, and so those agencies also could not spend money that they usually spend on contractors contractors or companies that provide all kinds of goods and services to the government. For example. Some contractors help federal agencies with computer systems other contractors provide cooking in janitorial services to federal office buildings or they might provide security guards still other. Contractors do certain kinds of research. There's all kinds of things they do. And there are thousands of companies like this and these contractors were not being paid. And neither therefore were a lot of their workers for the five weeks, the shutdown lasted the fact that workers and contractors were not being paid had he direct and negative effect on the economy, but most of that affect was temporary. Now that the shutdown is over those eight hundred thousand federal workers will get back paid for the five weeks of the shutdown and the federal agencies will get their expected funding their own version of back bay. In other words, these agencies can resume paying contractors? And so the negative effect of the shutdown will mostly be offset as money starts getting paid out to workers and contractors mostly offset, though, not fully offset some of the economic activity that was lost her in the shutdown. We'll never be recovered about three billion dollars worth again that is today's planet money indicator, and again, you can stop listening. Now if you want. Deep into it. You might as well go. You miss your chance. The exit was way back in the hunt. You'll just be missing the path and the CPO explains the most obvious place where the economic activity was lost. And that is in the hours that those furloughed government workers would have been working and in the services that those workers would have been providing during those hours now that the shutdown is over those furloughed workers are back to work and providing their usual services, but they can't go back in time. And do the work they missed three billion dollars. Frankly is a tiny tiny amount in the context of the overall US economies. Sounds like a lot of money. Yeah. I mean, if I had three billion dollars I'd be crock here. You'd be broadcasting the header from an island latest download. On away their bonus. The US economy. This year is expected to produce about twenty trillion dollars of goods and services. So according to the show we're talking about an amount of damage. That's roughly just zero point zero two percent of the economy that doesn't make life obviously any easier for those workers that did suffer without a paycheck for five weeks. But in terms of the overall economy, it's just not a big effect. We will however just add quickly that the reason there was a shutdown in the first place was because the president wanted five point seven billion dollars in the budget for a border wall and congress did not want to include that money. And so the shutdown ended up directly costing the economy more than half of that amount. And the problems still wasn't solved. The dispute still wasn't resolved. So we're not here for the politics. You can make that what you will. We're going to keep plowing ahead with the economy. But can you put a dollar amount on principle? I guess your politicians. I guess that's true. But the CBO also said there was a lot of stuff that it's estimates could not measure effects that were either uncertain or indirect or both. So for example. Yes, federal workers are now getting a paycheck again. But the experience of having struggled without one for so long might lead them to start saving more money spending less money, and that could mean slower economic growth in the short term, a second example, some federal government agencies guarantee, or in some cases, give out certain kinds of loans to people in businesses. For instance, the small business administration guarantees loans to well, small businesses and those loans were not being processed you're in the shutdown small businesses, therefore might have changed their plans for the future in ways that are really hard to know. And thus also just hard to quantify a third example of an indirect or uncertain cost of the shutdown is that the federal government probably lost some of its credibility as a stable employer. This could mean that it will have to pay workers a little more on the future to hire them and keep them on staff. Lure them away. From the private sector because workers will demand more money to take a job that feels less stable to them than it might have before it. A fourth example is one that's really quite close to our collective planet. Money, indicator heart, some of the government agencies that publish economic data close during the shutdown. And so there has been a big delay in the release of economic indicators that some businesses rely on to make their decisions about how much money to spend or invest this loomed. Very large indicator Cardiff has been talking about this quite a bit. I mean when there aren't indicators coming out and the name of your podcast indicator. We we've had some notice about it. You're noticing meetings about it. And finally, there is probably some economic damage that we don't understand yet. It's just too early. For example, a lot of people who work at national parks were furloughed. And so there's been some damage to the parks from trash accumulating, and some other things and cleaning up that mess might actually cost more money than it would if the parks had just been regularly maintained for those five weeks, plus the parks lost money from entrance fees that they might never get back. But again, it's too early to know one point made by the show is all these negative effects, both the direct and indirect effects likely become worse the longer shutdown goes on, and that's something to keep in mind. Given that the government is only reopened for three weeks and the clock is ticking. And if the president congress don't agree to a spending deal within that time, a whole new shutdown will begin and thus a new set of indicators, those indicators. We will pose the CBO report at NPR dot org slash money. This episode was produced by Constanza Yaro and edited by paddy Hirsch will Ruben is our intern and the indicator is a production of NPR. Now, you can actually stop listening. Right. We're it's over. Right. You listen to the close to the close. Good music.
Weekly Update --- Trump and Biden Squabble While America Burns
"Hello everybody and thank you for tuning into the weekly report trump and Biden squabble while America Burns, President Donald Trump and former vice president. Joe Biden spent most of last week's first presidential debate trading insults and interrupting each other. The result was a debate with very little discussion of actual issues or policies. In one of the evening's few substances, exchanges, president trump rightly criticized vice president biden for saying he would listen to the scientists in determining whether to lock down the country president trump also acknowledged that the lockdowns were a harmful overreaction that needs to end. Unfortunately president trump wants again pledged that cova vaccines would soon be available. This raises the specter of a repeat of the swine food debacle where a vaccine rushed into production for political reasons caused more deaths than the swine flu itself. President trump also raised concerns about mandatory Kobe or vaccinations by suggesting the military would be charged with vaccine distribution. Vice President Biden vehemently denied he was a socialist, well champion increase spending taxes, regulations expanded obamacare and a modified green new deal. Biden may not consider himself associates. But if his economic plans were implemented, it would take America further down the road to socialism and serfdom president trump also denounce socialism while bragging about his own government policies such as tariffs, massive spending increases, and plans to maintain the popular provision of Obamacare. One topic that did not come up was gun control. This may have been because both candidates support infringements on the Second Amendment Joe. Biden was the chair of the Senate judiciary. Committee who went it pass gun control measures like the assault weapons ban and the Brady Bill President trump has not only banned bump stocks but executive orders which President Obama refused to because his attorney general correctly determined that the president lacks the authority to do so. But has enthusiastically endorsed red flag laws. These laws allow law enforcement to as president trump put take the guns I worry about the due process later. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the federal debt will exceed the gross domestic product next year and reach one hundred and ninety five percent of GDP by twenty fifty. This report was issued before this week's revelation that the federal debt reached record levels of twenty, seven, billion dollars. This is the biggest threat to our national security, but it was unmentioned during the debate. This is not surprising since few in political office or media elites in their stand the debt crisis well, enough to give it the attention. It deserves although if Biden wins and Democrats seize control of the Senate Republicans will likely remember they are supposed to be against big spending and. One critical area that could have led to an interesting exchange was monetary policy. Biden has called for trump's tweets attacking the Fed as an assault on feds independence as if the. Fed. Wherever free from political pressure. President trump has gone from supporting fed audit, criticizing low interest rates and supporting the gold standard to pushing the Fed to adopt the insane policy of zero interest rates. The debate is the latest evidence that the two major parties will not on their own restore our lost liberties those who want to roll back the welfare warfare state should avoid focusing on political parties or personalities. Instead. We must focus on spreading the ideas of liberty among our fellow citizens and building a liberty movement that puts principles of liberty above partisanship. Thanks for listening.
President Trump Threatens to Deploy Military in Response to Unrest
"Facts allow you to make decisions in unpredictable times. Get the facts you need from the Wall Street Journal from PRE CORONA UPDATES to daily deep dives and our podcasts and videos WSJ is a trusted source in uncertain times visit wsj.com. Here's your morning brief for Tuesday June second I'm Kief Collins for the Wall Street Journal, President Trump's. He's ordering the deployment of troops to Washington, DC AND And threatened to do the same in other cities in response to violent unrest, following the death of George Floyd. Some critics have questioned the move by law enforcement to disperse protesters near the White House to allow the president to take a photo standing outside a church yesterday last night, protesters defied curfews in a number of cities in Minneapolis to separate autopsy reports concluded that Floyd's death. Death in police custody was a homicide, but emphasized different causes. The Congressional Budget Office said the US economy could take the better part of a decade to fully recover from the pandemic. The nonpartisan agency said the trillions in stimulus spending so far we'll only partially make up for the economic damage and some facebook employees staged a virtual walkout to protest CEO Mark Zuckerberg's decision to leave up. Up Posts from president trump about the recent unrest. It said quote when the looting starts, the shooting starts on twitter more than a dozen facebook employees said the president's post violates internal rules about inciting violence. Sucker Burqa, said the president's post would remain despite the CEO's personal view that it is quote deeply offensive for more details. Please head to our website wsj.com or the WSJ APP.
Weekly Update --- Debt is the Real Pandemic
"Hello everybody. Thank you for tuning in to the weekly report. Debt is the real pandemic. According to the Congressional Budget Office's latest, update on the budget outlook. This year's three point three, trillion dollar federal deficit is not just three times larger than the last year it is the largest federal deficit in history. The CBO update also predicts that the federal debt will equal one hundred and four percent of the gross domestic product next year, and we'll reach one hundred, eight percent of the GDP by twenty thirty. The CBO update also shows that the social security Medicare and highway trust funds will all be bankrupt by twenty thirty one. This will put pressure on Congress to bail out the trust funds. Thus further increasing the debt. This year spike in federal spending was caused by the multi trillion dollar corona virus relief economic stimulus bills passed by Congress, and signed by the president. However, spending had already increased by nine hundred, thirty, seven, billion dollars from the time president trump was sworn in until the lockdown. Federal spending is unlikely to be reduced. No matter who wins the presidential election. Former vice president Joe Biden has proposed increasing spending on everything from obamacare to militarism to green cronyism. Yes. Some progressives are attacking Biden for being too stingy in his spending proposals even more distressing is how few progressives are critical of Biden support for increasing the military budget? With some notable exceptions such as his infrastructure plan president trump is not proposing any massive new spending programs. However, he is not promising to stop increasing much less cut federal spending. Most Republicans have abandoned their Obama era opposition to deficit spending to support president trump spending increases. This repeats pattern where Republicans oppose deficit spending under a Democrat President But decide that deficits don't matter when a Republican is sitting in the oval. Office. If Biden wins in November Republicans will likely once again discover that deficits do matter especially if Democrats also gained control of the Senate. Government spending forcibly takes resources from the private sector where they are used to produce goods and services desired by. And puts them in the hands of politicians and bureaucrats. This distorts the market reducing efficiency and lowering the people's standard of living this combine with pressure to monetize federal debt. Causes the Federal Reserve to pump money into the economy leading to a boom bust business cycle. UNLESS, Congress begins reducing spending the coming economic crisis will be even worse. The logical place to start cutting spending is ending all unnecessary Overseas Commitments Corporate Welfare and shutting down on constitutional federal agencies starting with the Department of Education. The savings from these cuts can be used to start paying down debt and providing for those truly dependent on the current system while we transition away from the welfare state. Private charities including ones run by religious organizations are better than government bureaucracies at providing effective and compassionate aid to those in need. Most politicians will not vote to curtail the welfare warfare state. Unless their constituents demand it, the people will not demand end too big government as long as so many believe that the government has a moral responsibility to and is capable of providing them with economic and personal. Security. Therefore, our priority must be on getting people to reject the entitlement mentality and praised for Lhasa field liberty and personal responsibility. This will enable us to build a movement capable of convincing politicians to stop voting for more spending and debt, and instead boat to respect the constitutional limitations on government in all areas. Thanks for listening.
Pandemic Drives Boom in Adult Online Learning
"Technology it's in your pocket your car. Your Business and the Wall Street. Journal's Tech news briefing is tracking all of it from consumer tech to cybersecurity from the giants to the startups every weekday. We bring you the latest stories about the companies and advancements that are changing the way we live and work tech is remaking the world will make sure your part of it subscribe to the WSJ tech news briefing from the Wall Street Journal. Wherever you get your podcasts staying inside as we'll learn something there's been a real spike in growth and people who actually WANNA learn new skills. Now that they're home they've got more time and This has been one of those rare industries. It's kind of benefiting in away from what's going on current theme in online learning for adults and let's not call it an oil boom but there is a recovery foot and something you're doing might be part of why explained and there's definitely not another baby boom in. America. We will look at the factors driving record low birth rates in new numbers. It is Wednesday may twentieth. I'm Mark Garrison with the Wall Street Journal and this is what's news. More states and regions are starting to ease lockdown restrictions including Connecticut West Virginia and parts of Washington state in Ohio. The stay at home order is now an advisory our Washington bureau chief. Jerry signed spoke with Governor. Mike Dewine two questions on wsj.com. Welby by this weekend will probably be ninety percent open This this is a work in progress. Ohioans did very well The first two months of this and keeping the separation and We we flatten the curve and We've we've you know. We've got our hospitalizations Plateaued they've been plateaued for over three weeks We would hope to start seeing them. Come Down Oh glad. At least they're not going up. States are expected to ask the federal government for at least forty five billion dollars to pay for finding the coronavirus current law allows states to get seventy five percent reimbursement from FEMA. Many as thirty nine states have requested more which president trump could make happen with the waiver? According to Fema after the Wall Street Journal asked about the president's plans. The White House told governors that they could be allowed to access pandemic relief money from the cares act to cover the remaining twenty five percent. The Congressional Budget Office says the US economic recovery will drag on through the end of next year it estimates that GDP. This quarter will shrink eleven point. Two percent from the last quarter has more than quadruple. The next biggest quarterly decline in records going back almost world war. Two Michigan is now under a state of emergency and residents evacuating as flood overwhelmed. Dams in the central part of the state heavy rain from a slow moving storm system has pelted the area for days. Johnson and Johnson will stop selling baby powder with Tau in the US and Canada. Thousands of lawsuits allege. The tout powder causes cancer. Johnson Johnson is fighting the lawsuits and has said the product is safe in just a moment your personal impact on the global oil market. We spoke on the show yesterday about the testimony from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Fed chairman. Jerome Powell which at times offered contrasting views of how much help is needed to get the economy on the right track. Wall Street closed down a bit. Yesterday and European trading has started today lower. One thing we're seeing is a slightly brighter picture for energy. You may be part of this depending on where you live. Things might be opening up and that could mean you're more likely to start your car and go somewhere do that enough and eventually you'll need to get gas that slow return of driving is helping the oil market and energy stocks marketer. Quinton web has more. So we're seeing is a dramatic recovery in all markets. You Go back a few weeks you know. There was a perfect storm effectively. We have this sudden global economics stock and then we had the technical factors which briefly pushed. Us oil futures below zero. That just really wasn't a place to store all this excess oil. It was accumulating. Oxford's where we are now things are easing a bit lockdowns a lifting. Us demand for gasoline is improving. And while we're not back to normal you know we have oil prices back in the thirty something dollar range and things are looking up in all kinds of ways you know like Chinese factories are getting back close to kind of full operation. Us motorists driving again. And we've also seen some capacity cuts which help kind of balance supply and demand in this market a bit better coming right up online. Learning for grownups turn into a big thing in the band dynamic robotics artificial intelligence augmented reality. The future is here. Listen to tomorrow today with the Wall Street. Journal's future of everything the podcast that takes you to the frontlines of science and tech and shows you. What's coming next? Look ahead what do you hear? The future of everything from the Wall Street Journal. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. We're going to talk now about online learning but not for the kids or college students. Many adults are heading online to pick up new skills right now for fun work or maybe both many people have a little more time now. That daily commutes mostly aren't a thing journal. Reporter Parmi Olsen has been reporting on the exploding world of distance learning. She spoke with our Charlie Turner. Parmi have the kinds of online courses always been popular or is the real growth started. Just since shelter in place restrictions went into effect. These kinds of courses have been popular for a good amount of time. This is still kind of niche industry but generally speaking over the last few years online learning and sites provide online learning whether that's by teachers who were on videos or automated Lessons have been growing at a steady pace. But what's happened with the lockdowns is that growth is just suddenly accelerated. There's been a real spike in growth and people who actually WANNA learn new skills. Now that they're home they've got more time and This has been one of those rare industries. It's kind of benefiting in a way from what's going on. What are some of the most in demand skills being taught online so it's actually a pretty wide range of the types of things? That people are are learning. There seems to be almost an even split between people. Taking courses for personal reasons for hobbies for things like drawing or calligraphy or writing a novel. You've got time to finally write that novel and then there's this other half of people who are actually trying to improve their professional skills so gotham writers workshop said that they had a lot of people taking their grammar courses and business writing course was also doing pretty okay or people who are taking courses in adobe software or enterprise software so that they can just make their resume that much better when they're back in the office or if they're furloughed unemployed when they go looking for work again talk about some of the sites offering these courses and the people who teach them so there are a range of companies. Who are doing this. There's traditional schools. For example. The GOTHAM writers workshop has been around for twenty seven years. They're based in Manhattan people go in for these physical classes and they have pivoted to zoom the videoconferencing APP and and they're they've just had their best month in their twenty seven year history in April. Then you have other companies like core Sarah Code Academy skills share and these are companies that were essentially built online and those kinds of businesses. You have either like exchange where a marketplace where teachers can come and sign up and they can make their own videos and then they can make money based on how many views they get or you can get like an automated system where there's games and bots and features like Code Academy does this. They don't have teachers. They they primarily automate their lessons. It sounds like it can be very lucrative for those teaching these skills. How much money have the sites and the teachers made since the lockdowns began so with skill share which is a marketplace for tens of thousands of teachers and they also have tens of thousands of courses They do a royalty based system where the teachers get a cut of the money that comes from the amount of minutes viewed and their revenue has gone up by about twelve percent from. I think around March to April and that might go up even more because most of their new people who've signed on on free trials so once those one to two months retrials kick in their revenue will go up even more Gotham writers workshop said their revenue went up by thirty six percent just in the last couple of months. Some of the other companies. I talked to didn't really want to give revenue figures but the higher views and the higher sign ups and many of these people are paying subscribers translating into higher revenues. So I guess some of these teachers can make a living doing this online and some of them do absolutely. There was a lady who is teaching calligraphy and watercolor painting on skill share. And she was making six figures doing this. She is one of the sites more successful teachers but on average their top five hundred teachers are earning about two thousand dollars a month. And this is something it's you can do it on the side of whatever it is you're doing but with this This particular lady who we talked about in the story she was doing it almost fulltime uploading lots of videos so it becomes a can be like your fulltime Job Wall Street Journal. Reporter PARMI awesome. Thanks a lot PARMI. Thank you brand. New Government data show. America's fertility rate is at an all time low falling to its lowest level on record and records. Go back more than a century. It turns out the birth rate that dropped during the last recession. Did Not Bounce back or colleague. Janet Adamy tracks demographics. There was an expectation that people would start. Having babies at a similar rate is before as the economy recovered over the ensuing decade and in effect. That never happened. The reason is that millennials have been much more financially behind than previous generations. So they make up the bulk of Americans who are currently in their child bearing years many of them are struggling with debt. They have waited to form families so they're just not as likely to have children or they're not having as many children now. The question is what impact the pandemic slowdown might have on fertility. What we know. From past periods of economic turmoil like the Great Depression and World War. Two is that during those that time period the uncertainty of it tends to discourage people from having children were expecting in the ensuing years that this number will continue to decrease in. It's worrisome because we also have an aging population. The baby boomers are moving into retirement. I think there's an expectation that Medicare and social security remain robust but when you don't have as many younger people in the country to feed into the workforce and help pay for those programs. There's a risk that you're going to get an imbalance. And that's what's news for this morning if you'd like our show please rate and review US wherever you get your podcasts. We are back with another updated episode this evening and there's always more on wsj.com and our APP I'm Mark Garrison with the Wall Street Journal. Thanks for listening.
U.S. Stocks Gain on Better-Than-Expected Jobs Report
"Facts allow you to make decisions in unpredictable times. Get the facts you need from the wall. Street, Journal from PRE CORONA VIDEO UPDATES to daily deep dives and our podcasts videos WSJ is a trusted source in uncertain times visit wsj.com. Here's your closing bill brief for Thursday July second I'm Jay are willing for the Wall Street Journal US stocks rose after a stronger-than-expected June employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Rose Ninety two points to close at twenty, five, thousand, eight, twenty, seven, the Nasdaq rose fifty three points higher, and the S. and P. Five hundred was up. Fourteen investors were reassured by today's jobs report showing a second straight month of gains separately. The Congressional Budget Office revised as unemployment forecast for December to ten point, five percent down from an earlier prediction of eleven point five percents. Freddie Mac says the average thirty year fixed mortgage rate fell to a record low of three point zero seven percent last week. If the fifth time this year, mortgage rates have hit a new low way down by fears that new corona virus outbreaks will hold back the recovery. Shares of Tesla rose nearly eight percent. The electric automakers said global deliveries fell four point nine percent in the second quarter. That's a much smaller decline than wall. Street, had predicted and investors more optimistic, twenty twenty will be the year that Tesla turns a full year profit. And shares of oil giant Exxon. Mobil rose point eight percent despite the company warning of steep losses in its refining and gas production businesses. The company is likely to report a second straight quarterly loss later this month. Markets are closed on Friday and observance of Independence Day. We have more details on today's market activity market analysis at wsj.com and the WSJ APP.
629-[In-Depth Version] Federal Debt: The Ticking Bomb that No One is Willing to Defuse
"What can the radical personal finance show dedicate providing you with the knowledge skills? Insight and encouragement, you need live rich and meaningful life now. While building a plan for financial freedom in ten years or less today on the show. We continue our discussion of federal debt, and let me lay out everything we're gonna cover in the show up front. So that you could decide if this particular episode of the show will make good use of your time or not today's show will not feature much personal commentary in yesterday's show. I did add some personal commentary and discussion onto the topic of the ticking time bomb that is US federal debt today show, however will feature very minimal commentary if you are a reader one who prefers to absorb information in written form, and or if you find that reading is a more productive use of your time than listening. Then all you need to do is simply reference the two sources cited in the show notes for today's show specifically a Washington Post article from March five. Called the federal deficit ballooned at start of new fiscal year up seventy seven percent from year before I will read you some excerpts of that article. And in addition, you can reference the written report that will be reading to you. Call the comprehensive federal budget plan to avert a debt crisis by Brian Riedel. That is the report that was referenced in yesterday's show. So if you're at one who reads, go ahead end just used as re written resources to help you make good use of retirement. Skip the show if you're one who benefits from podcasts such as mine to turn otherwise unproductive time into something productive. Then I think you'll enjoy this because I'll give you an audio version that is fairly, balanced and useful. And the commentary will help you to make good use of some of your audio listening time rather than going and reading these particular resources, but it won't offend me. If you skip this show, so because of your prefer preference to read specifically what I'm seeking to do at this point is. After yesterday's show where I talked about the idea talked about my concerns, I use the metaphor of the fact that the federal deficit is metaphorically crack in bridge and the engineers can look at it and say, there's a crack here this bridge is going to fail, but we don't know when the bridge is going to fail. We don't know to what level that catastrophic failure might actually look like we don't know if that just means a little bit is gonna fall off. The whole thing's gonna crumble these are all things that are unknown predicting the future is generally a difficult business. And so we're all in that situation. But one of the groups of thinkers that I wished to reach is those who are more in the middle. Those who perhaps like me are people who say, well, I don't want to be an extremist. I don't want to be an alarmist. I don't want to all of a sudden move into radical alarm territory, but I do want an honest discussion at the facts and don't particularly want it from a strong partisan perspective. I'm not looking for a certain right wing or left wing approach. I want a discussion an honest analysis of different discussion. So that I can think things through and then that way with that data with that information. I can just follow my own observations. I can try to look at the world. And as the years go by a tick by in the coming years, I can start to get a guess on on what I think is going to happen. So if that's you then this will be useful for you. Now, I was amused to find that after I recorded yesterday show. I quickly almost right after I had a few hours after I'd finished it. I quickly has always Washington Post article. And I thought it was ironic. I wish it'd come out before I recorded the audio, but it didn't. But let me read you some excerpts from it. And this is Washington Post. Dateline March five at six fifty one PM from the business section the federal deficit ballooned at start of new fiscal year up seventy seven percent from a year before the federal budget deficit balloon rapidly in the first four months of the fiscal year amid falling tax revenue and higher spending. The treasury department said Tuesday. Posing a new challenge for the White House and congress as they prepare for a number of budget battles. The deficit grew Seventy-seven percent in the first four months of fiscal two thousand nineteen compared with the same period. One year before treasury said the total deficit for the four month period was three hundred and ten billion dollars treasury said up from one hundred and seventy six billion dollars for the same period. One year earlier, quote, it's big tax cuts combined with big increases in spending. When they already had big deficits said farmer Senate budget committee, chairman Kent Conrad democrat from North Dakota. So guess what it's craziness close quote when Republicans seized control of the house of representatives during the Obama administration lawmakers and White House officials embarked on a number of strained negotiations to try to reduce the gap between spending and tax revenue during the Trump administration. There have not been any similar discussions and President Trump has largely enacted an agenda of tax cuts and spending increases that had grown the deficit Ma. Markedly tax revenue for October twenty eighteen through January twenty nineteen fell nineteen billion dollars or two percent. Treasury said it noted a major reduction in corporate tax payments over the first four months of the fiscal year following close to twenty five percent or seventeen billion dollars as part of the two thousand seventeen tax cut law. The tax rate paid by corporations was lowered from thirty five percent to twenty one percent spending. Meanwhile, increased nine percent over the same period. The biggest increases were for defense military programs which saw a twelve percent increase and Medicare which saw a sixteen percent increase. The Congressional Budget Office has projected that the deficit this year will reach close to nine hundred billion dollars because the government spends so much more money than it brings in through revenue. The White House next week is expected to propose a new budget for the fiscal year that begins in October and Democrats are working on spending plans of their own pay attention, so far there has been little effort to reconcile differences between both parties and neither has shown much interest in addressing the widening budget deficit White House economic adviser Larry cooed, low on Tuesday acknowledged that national debt as a share of GDP has quote inched up a bit close quote, but added in an interview on Fox News, quote, we are making an investment in America's future. And if that means we incur some additional debt in the short run. So be it close, quote cooed lo said, quote, growth solves the problem. Close quote and predicted that the deficit to GDP ratio will come down with growth, quote that will solve all of these problems and people will be very prosperous close. Quote. The White House plan will propose cutting a number of domestic programs by at least five percent, including things like environmental. Action education in foreign aid. According to Trump administration officials who have previewed some of the plans, it will also propose hearing to caps on military and non-military programs put in place several years ago, but it will simultaneously proposed boosting defense spending in an end cap. An in an uncapped program as to divert more money to the military skipping down quote continuing to read but Skippy down a few paragraphs. There has been a total breakdown in Washington, however, over how to address the budget deficit the White House has walled off popular programs Medicare and social security from any proposed cuts with Trump saying it would be too politically unpopular to pursue changes two programs used by tens of millions of Americans. Democrats are also split over how to proceed the ranks of fiscal hawks have dwindled and a newer vocal wing of the party has called for more deficit spending to finance so. Programs. Some in that wing argue the debt is less pressing than other social maladies such as poverty or inadequate health coverage, while others argue the debt is of little consequence at all instead of trying to resolve their differences, the White House, and some Democrats are seeking to make the twenty twenty elections a referendum on economic policy suggesting neither side is looking to reach a compromise. In the coming months. Dropping down again in the story. The quote continuing to read the US economy is still the strongest in the world and investors have retained a healthy appetite for US government debt because the country has never defaulted on its obligations, but large debt levels have caused financial crises in a number of other countries and forced major economic changes that have led to recessions, a phenomenon that some have warned could happen in the United States. If steps aren't taken Senator James Langford Republican from Oklahoma was bemoaning debt levels Tuesday. A few hours before treasury reported the big increase in the deficit, quote, if you take twenty two trillion miles total distance you would fly from earth to Pluto and back three thousand eighty one times Langford set on the Senate floor. This is a heavy debt. Now, the key thing I want to draw your attention to is the political dynamics. And this is why I personally don't see a solution that will happen in the future. After all of these news stories and have been for the past few decades are basically well at some point something will happen at some point. Something will happen at some point. Something will happen. Meanwhile, the numbers just simply continue to grow. Now. It's possible that at some point something will happen. But if something doesn't happen soon it's too late. Now, I personally am convinced. It's already too late. But I'll be watching very carefully in the next few years to see if in fact, some kind of discussion starts to happen. If in fact, there is a way for Republicans and Democrats in the United States to come together have intelligent adult conversations and start to change spending start to change deficits start to change the debt, and it has to happen. The problem is in the moment. No. The the discussions that happen are completely immaterial in order for you to change the structure, you have to attack Medicaid, Medicare and social security, and then also defense spending and those are. Are considered to be sacrosanct by many of the people who are involved in in these various programs. So how do you change those things you have? I don't see how it I don't see how it could be possible, especially in the political environment. We are in. There are many calls by many people for civility or conversation, etc. I don't see how in the US American political fabric. I don't see how that is that those conversations or discussions are possible. Everyone is is basically doubling down on partisanship. And I just don't see. I don't see how it could happen. And I have lost any confidence that there are is a willingness or even an ability on behalf of a broad swath of the US citizenry for people to stop and think rationally and discuss things and to vote against their own self interest. Nobody is going to vote against their own self interest. So that that's my my perspective. So watch stories like this as they go on. And here's what I would. Encouraged to look for in the next coming years as you look at stories like this. I you will always hear discussion say I'll always hear this optimistic idea that well at some point we need to have a solution at some point there needs to be a conversation. I'm convinced it's too late. But I've hoped to be wrong on that particular thing. But study the data which will get into in a moment and see if anything could actually possibly be done. Secondly, look for all of these for lack of a better word tropes, and you'll see that basically people aren't serious. You can't I love tax cuts. I think it's great. I think there'll be some reinvigoration of business happening in the United States but tax cuts because of the lowering tax levels. We haven't talked extensively about the tax cut jobs act here on the show, but it should make some difference. But you cannot make up for in tax cuts. What is happening with the baby boomers retiring and the heavy pressure on Medicare. You cannot make up for in tax coats, what declining birth rates the problem that declining birth rates are bringing to the country. You cannot make up for tax cuts. What stagnant and decreasing wages are happening at cetera. So you can't it's not that one or the other. But everyone says well the tax cuts going to solve everything or expand spending. And those are these are foolish perspectives. So at some point in time, the bills are not going to get paid. And the bills are not going to get paid in many many forms. We don't know what form which is the problem, which why we need to be prepared for many forms. Now at this point. I'm going to discuss here this paper that referenced in yesterday's show. And I'm going to be reading extensive portions of this paper to you again to try to make good. Use of your audio time, but the paper is titled a comprehensive federal budget plan to avert a debt crisis by Brian Riedel, who is a senior fellow at the Manhattan institute from his bio here. Brian Riedel is a senior fellow at the Manhattan institute and a member of 'em is economics, Twenty-one focusing on budget tax and economic policy previously. He worked for six years as chief economist Senator Rob Portman Republican from Ohio, and as staff director of the Senate finance subcommittee on fiscal responsibility and economic growth, he also served as director of budget and spending policy for Marco Rubio's presidential campaign and was the lead architect of the ten year deficit reduction plan for mitt Romney's presidential campaign. During the years two thousand and one to two thousand eleven Riedel served as the heritage foundation's lead research fellow on federal budget and spending policy. Skipping. Some of the other references Riedel holds a bachelor's degree in economics and political science from the university of Wisconsin a master's degree in public affairs from Princeton University. So this report was from September two thousand eighteen 'bout six months ago at the time of this recording. And I think it's quite useful to have that six month context. I'm glad I'm doing this now instead of right when it came out because now we can think about what's happening in the last six months. Relive course from his biography would tend to be more on the conservative direction of the political spectrum. I'm assuming from the institutions that he has represented and the politicians for whom he has worked. But I think you'll assess his work here as fairly well balanced in the actual report. Let's get right into it. Executive summary annual budget deficits are projected is soon. Surpass one trillion dollars on their way to two trillion dollars or even three trillion dollars ten to fifteen years social security and Medicare face a combined one hundred trillion dollar cash deficit over the next thirty years, which would push the national debt to nearly two hundred percent of the gross domestic product GDP at that point interest on that debt would consume forty percent of all tax revenues or more. If interest rates rise unless reforms are enacted global markets will at some point stop lending to the United States at plausible interest rates when that event occurs or even approaches interest rates will soar and the federal government will not be able to pay its bills with dire consequences for the US economy a debt crisis in short looms on the horizon. There is a way to avert this debt crisis. However, lawmakers must act quickly to reform social security and Medicare as every year four million more baby boomers retire into those programs and the eventual cost of reform rises by trillions of dollars. This report presents a specific thirty year blueprint each element of which is scored using data from the Congressional Budget Office CBO to stabilize the national debt at ninety five percent of GDP the fiscal consolidation in this report calls for some social security and Medicare benefits for upper income recipients to be trimmed some taxes would rise spending on defense would continue to fall as share of the economy, but anti-poverty reforms would be limited to a slight reduction in the growth of Medicaid benefits, and domestic discretionary spending priorities would be largely protected without reform runaway deficits will all but guarantee a debt. Crisis that will profoundly damage the country's economic and social order. There is still time to avoid that crisis. But it will require the nation's fractious political leaders to leave their respective comfort zones and compromise. Thus ends the executive summary. Now, again, I want to emphasize your and my job is to consume arguments such as these such as this one assess them and then watch to see if the necessary preconditions are happening in the coming years. So for example, I repeat he says without reform runaway deficits will all but guarantee a debt crisis that will profoundly damage the country's economic and social order. K we can't know exactly how that will work out. You can't know exactly what chain of events would would result from that. But what we can look for to see if it's happening or will happen is this quote, there is still time to avoid that crisis. But it will require the nation's fractious political leaders to leave their respective comfort zones and compromise. Now, if you watch election cycles in the United States watch what is happening with the proposals. Let's see what happens with the twenty twenty presidential and congressional elections. Let's see what happens elected president. Let's see what happens with the majorities in the house and Senate, and let's watch over the next few years, and that will give us some idea of whether or not this kind of political compromise and serious reform is possible, we can hope because none of us want to go through a crisis. But I I stayed at clearly I see no path how that happens. But I hope that I'm wrong. Let's discuss the actual data in this report. Now it comprehensive federal budget plan to avert a debt crisis introduction annual budget deficits are projected soon surpass one trillion dollars on their way to two trillion dollars or even three trillion dollars in ten to fifteen years social security and Medicare face a combined one hundred trillion dollar cash def. Facet over the next thirty years, which is projected to bring a one hundred trillion dollar national debt at that point interest on that debt would consume forty percent of all tax revenues or more. If interest rates rise unless reforms are enacted global markets will at some point stop lending to the United States at plausible interest rates when that event occurs or even approaches interest rates will soar and the federal government will not be able to pay its bills with dire consequences for the US economy a debt crisis in short looms on the horizon, yet most lawmakers tasked with the responsibility of averting it expressed little interest in doing. So no recent president has presented a specific plan to stabilize the long-term budget, congress recently enacted tax cuts, and discretionary spending increases that here respective of any policy. Merits will add trillions in debt, lawmakers promised cheering crowds that they will never. Trim social security or Medicare or accept a penny in new tax increases or defense. Cuts democratic socialists pledged to further increase federal spending by forty two trillion dollars over the decade and two hundred eighteen trillion dollars over thirty years federal spending rises by one hundred and fifty billion dollars annually, while BI partisan resistance greeted a proposal this summer to merely rescind a few billion dollars in spending authority that was not going to be spent anyway, petty squabbles over petty spending cuts and the refusal even to discuss the main drivers of debt reflect a general unwillingness of congress the White House and indeed the citizenry to face the unsustainability of Washington's current fiscal path. There is a way to avert this debt crisis without major tax increases or significant cuts to anti-poverty and social spending. However, lawmakers must act quickly to reform social security and Medicare as every year four million more baby boomers retire into those programs and the eventual cost of reform rises by trillions of dollars. This report presents a specific thirty year blueprint each element of which is scored using the most recent Congressional Budget Office long term budget outlook to stabilize the national debt at ninety five percent of the gross domestic product GDP section one identifies. The drivers of the long-term debt section to addresses false easy solutions deployed to avoid real real reform section. Three presents the blueprint section four defends the blueprint against both conservative and liberal objections the fiscal consolidation in this report calls. For some social security and Medicare benefits for upper income recipients to be trimmed some taxes would rise spending on defense would continue to fall as share of the economy in short. There is something in this blueprint for everyone to oppose but leading the country wander into a debt crisis is even worse to be sure deficit reduction proposals are common. The problem is that most congressional budget proposal simply assume generic and unrealistic long-term spending and tax targets without spelling out the specific program attic reforms that could meet those targets across the policy community. Long-term budget proposals often reflect liberal or conservative dream scenarios rather than plans that can appeal to both parties. By contrast, the blueprint presented here is specific scored and represents politically realistic solutions rather than that partisan fantasies. It is intended to revive a serious. Partisan discussion and to go. She asians. Section one. Why the debt is soaring from the mid nineteen fifties through two thousand eight the national debt held by the public averaged thirty five percent of GDP this level of borrowing could easily be absorbed by the increasingly global financial markets, and it resulted in interest costs averaging two percent of GDP roughly ten percent of a typical federal budget since two thousand eight the great recession and the beginning of the baby boomer retirements have more than doubled the debt to seventy eight percent of GDP if current policies continue the debt is projected to reach an unprecedented one hundred and ninety four percent of GDP within thirty years. And if this debt brings higher interest rates as consensus economic theory suggests the debt could surpass two hundred and fifty percent of GDP and servicing the debt could cost seven and a half percent of G. EDP the equivalent of one point five trillion dollars in today's economy. Americans of all incomes would face unprecedented tax increases, higher interest rates for home mortgages and car student and business loans and a significant economic slowdown. Unlike greases, the US debt would be too large to be easily absorbed by the global economy. What is causing the debt rise, not inadequate tax revenues, which since the early nineteen fifties have usually remain between sixteen and a half percent and eighteen and a half percent of GDP regardless of tax policies, and which are projected to rise above historical norms to eighteen point six percent to nineteen point eight percent of GDP, depending on the fate of various expiring tax cuts and delayed tax increases, nor is it driven on the spending side by aggregate expenditures for discretionary and smaller entitlement programs, which are projected to continue falling as a share of the economy figure two shows that the entire increase in long-term debt will come from surging social security, Medicare and other government healthcare spending. According to the CBO these costs have risen from seven percent to ten percent of GDP since two thousand and are projected to reach fifth. Eighteen and a half percent of GDP by twenty forty eight or twenty one point eight percent of GDP when the interest costs of social security and Medicare's annual deficits are included. Why social security and Medicare are going bankrupt between two thousand eight and two thousand thirty seventy four million Americans born between nineteen forty six and nineteen sixty four on average ten thousand per day will retire and receive social security and Medicare benefits of this group. Those retiring at age sixty six and living to age ninety will spend one third of their adult life receiving federal retirement benefits. The combination of more retiring baby boomers and longer. Life. Spans will expand social security and Medicare caseloads far beyond what current tax payers can afford undercurrent benefit formulas in one thousand nine hundred sixty five workers paid the taxes to support each retiree. And of course, Medicare did not exist. The ratio of workers to retirees has now fallen below. Three two one on its way to two to one by the twenty thirties. When today's kindergartners are adults each married. Couple will basically be responsible for the social security and health care of their very own retiree. These demographic challenges are worsened by rising healthcare costs and repeated benefit expansions enacted by lawmakers. Today's typical retiring couple has paid one hundred and forty thousand dollars intimate icare and will receive four hundred and twenty thousand dollars in benefits in net present value in part because Medicare's physician and drug benefits are not prefund with payroll taxes and only partially funded by retiree premiums most social security recipients also come out ahead, thus most seniors benefits greatly exceed their lifetime contributions to these social security and. Medicare systems by twenty thirty the seventy four million baby boomers will have joined a retirement benefits system that runs a substantial per person deficit, according to CBO between two thousand eighteen and two thousand forty eight Medicare is projected to run a forty one trillion dollar cash deficit social security will run an eighteen trillion dollar cash deficit and the interest on the resulting program that will be forty one trillion dollars to adjust these thirty year totals for inflation trim by one third rather than adequately self-financed through payroll taxes and premiums. These two programs are set to add one hundred trillion dollars to the national debt. The rest of the federal budget is projected to run a surplus over the next thirty years figure four expresses the same projections in a different manner by twenty forty eight social security and Medicare will collect five point nine percent of GDP in dedica-. Waited revenues and spend twelve point two percent of GDP in benefits plus six point three percent of GDP in interest costs resulting from these two programs deficits that twelve point six percent of GDP budget deficit resulting solely from social security and Medicare is unsustainable. The fiscal winter is coming and autumn has already arrived since two thousand eight when the first baby boomers qualified for early retirement social security and Medicare have accounted for sixty percent of all inflation adjusted federal spending growth with Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act responsible for an additional thirty one percent. The majority of budgetary savings achieved by discretionary spending caps defense. Cuts and rising tax revenues have simply financed growing social security and Medicare costs which will grow by another one hundred thirty billion dollars annually over the next decade that is the equivalent of creating another defense department every five years, this will happen automatically without any congressional votes and therefore likely with scant media coverage. Wjr and as federal resources further shift to the elderly Washington is beginning to run out of offsetting spending cuts. This has contributed to the deficit expanding from four hundred thirty eight billion dollars to six hundred sixty six billion dollars over the past two years. CBO's current policy baseline shows deficits rising to two trillion dollars within a decade or three trillion dollars. If interest rates return to historical norms. Unlike the temporary, recession driven budget deficits decade ago, these social security and Medicare based deficits will expand permanently over the next thirty years CBO projects that the national debt will grow from twenty trillion dollars to ninety nine trillion dollars. Fifty four trillion dollars after inflation or much higher. If interest rates rise from the projected three to four percent rate. Change to the historically typical five to six percent. President Trump's latest budget proposal shows the impossibility of reining in deficits without social security and Medicare reform by allowing these programs to nearly double over the decade. From one point six trillion dollars to three trillion dollars. The white is forced to propose slashing other entitlement spending as share of GDP by one fifth over the decade and cutting both defense and domestic discretionary spending two levels as a percentage of GDP unseen since the nineteen thirties yet, even if these implausible cuts were enacted CBO still estimates. A budget deficit topping one trillion dollars by twenty twenty eight this deficit would continue escalating thereafter because social security and Medicare costs would continue growing, even after Washington would have run out of other. Spending to cut predictably most of the popular Blaine blame for the rising deficits currently pinned on the two thousand seventeen tax cuts and jobs act, T C, J T C J will likely decrease revenues by roughly one percent of GDP indefinitely. If extended pass twenty twenty-five went parts of the law are currently scheduled to expire. This does not include additional tax revenues that will arise from the economic growth that lower tax rates will induce. The congressional joint committee on taxation estimates that these additional tax revenues would offset the additional interest costs of the tax law, though, not the primary deficit increasing impact of the tax cuts themselves while the government revenues foregone by TI will surely worsen deficits, they are a much smaller contribute tour than social security Medicare and Medicaid spending on which will together rise by two point six percent of GDP over the decade. And five point four percent over thirty years, even without the two thousand seventeen tax cuts. The annual deficit would still exceed one point seven trillion dollars within a decade in short C J did not create the federal government's large deficits, and even repealing them would not absolve lawmakers of the need to address rising entitlement spending. How crisis may play out the national debts share of the economy cannot rise forever at a certain point even large global savings. Markets will be stretched and investor confidence in America's ability to finance its debt will evaporate the timing of a country's debt crisis depends as much on market psychology as on economic fundamentals, but eventually as the debt steeply escalates. Investors will move from unease to panic and demand higher interest rates to finance the federal government. These higher rates will make it extremely difficult for businesses to borrow and invest, and we'll make auto loans student loans and home mortgages, less affordable while also forcing unprecedented tax increases and or spending cuts to pay for Washington's higher interest costs such an outcome is highly likely if annual deficits continue. Growing past ten percent of GDP and the debt continues to approach two hundred percent of GDP as projected in the current policy baseline on the one hand America will have some leeway due to its reputation as a safe harbor for investments and status as the world's reserve currency on the other hand absorbing debt of nearly two hundred percent of America's economy would be much more expensive for the global markets, then absorbing say two hundred percent of a smaller GDP like that of Greece in the absence of fundamental reform. The more likely scenario is a series of minor investor. Panics forcing up interest rates followed by upper income tax increases and lower priority. Spending reductions that are insufficient to finance the rising, entitlement and interest costs. Eventually Washington will run out of such offsets to reduce deficits. Leaving only the choice between historically large middle-class tax increases and a drastic reduction in social security and Medicare benefits for current retirees. Now, I wanna pause for a moment to insert just a couple of words of commentary before we move on to section two. You will notice here that this particular, author omits a discussion of inflation inflation. He he he only uses he'll only discusses inflation in terms of standard economic forecasting, the type of inflation that we are all accustomed to which by the way is absolutely devastating. Every time. I run numbers on this. I absolutely find it devastating. And my newest course, I have a whole section on current capital controls capital controls and currency controls under which we currently all live because one of the biggest dangers of an economic crisis is capital controls, and especially currency controls for us as individuals. And so I have whole discussion on capital controls under which we currently live and in analyzing those capital controls calculated the impact of them on an inflation adjusted basis, and they are absolutely devastating. I hate inflation. Anyway, the point is this author is using just the standard economic forecasting models of built in normal. Inflation rates of two three percent that type of thing nowhere in this particular paper. Does he ever address mass inflation and nowhere does he ever and dress, hyper inflation, with the exception of an argument that showing that inflation doesn't solve the problems of social security and Medicare because they are tied to inflation. We'll get to that argument later, they're inflation adjusted. But I do think that these it's worth your I want to point that out to you. Because in addition to these problems, which are devastating, but practically, but more common, we also need to think about the potential of mass inflation, and or hyperinflation because those that's even more devastating. Now. I think there are strong arguments that would indicate why the United States might seek to avoid those policies. Why the US Federal Reserve would avoid that. Policy. I think there are strong arguments for it. But I do think is I think it's plausible in the past years in studying it, I used to think of hyperinflation in the United States as implausible, I used to think of mass info mass inflation as plausible I have since moved mass inflation in my own mental categorization from plausible to increasingly probable, and hyper inflation from implausible to plausible. Now, I don't know what will happen. The coming years. We'll we'll we'll we'll tell us a lot. But it we need to watch that just want to point out that that absence to you and talking about how a crisis will play out this particular, author doesn't use or doesn't factor in the potential of mass inflation hyperinflation scenarios, he devaluation of the currency and is important for your member. Because what are the what what what can happen in order for these things to be solved? Will you can either have a an increase in taxes, which is a real problem for you. As an individual who pays taxes the real problem for me. So that can be devastating to your personal wealth. We've got a plan to make sure that we escape those higher taxes or we can have deep cuts in spending. But because those cuts in spending are largely devoted to the baby boomers, we have a massive problem there because the baby boomers, yes, they some of them have wealth, but many people don't so cuts in spending for social security and Medicare will be devastating for many millions of people who for whom that's their only asset and they've been they've been solved they've been sold. This idea of that can retire and have these programs there for them, and you have the largest motivated voting block, which makes the political nightmare just even worse. And then even if those cuts are inactive that has a devastating impact on the economy with regard to spending levels and consumption levels. So that's a problem or you can have more borrowing or you can have inflation. Those are the basic of the only options you just have those levers to push on. And so for most of us those these. These are problems. So we have higher taxes. We gotta figure out a plan to protect yourself from higher taxes. If we have fewer benefits, we gotta have a plan to protect ourselves from fewer benefits. If we have inflation do inflate the monetary supply. We have a to have a plan for that. Because that affects everything else. And so it's it's a tough nut to crack. That's why the whole course anyway, commentary over let's move on to section to call the Mirage of easy solutions. Standing in the way of making the changes to be outlined in this budget plan or other plausible proposals to avert a debt crisis are a series of false claims that the problem is easily salt economic panaceas steep economic growth. A strong economy is necessary, but far from sufficient for major deficit reduction growth rates will already be limited by the labor force slowdown caused by baby boomer retirement and declining birth rates. That leaves productivity to drive growth I want. To comment also an interest cert- one commentary. The latest arguments articles that I'm seeing right now is that the the potential of declining birth rates is actually has the potential far more catastrophic in the United States than previously antiquated. There has been a major decline in birthrates among white people. But it has previously been assumed that there would be strong that would be stronger birth rates among Brown people, primarily Brown people and black people in the United States. What seems to be happening? However, is there seems to be a much more significant decline in birthrates, not only among white people. But especially among Brown people in the United States than previously antipated. So that is something that you need to keep your eye on as well. And it'll be interesting to see if that trend in that data continues, or if that's just an anomaly, I have a couple of books to read on it. But I haven't been able to dig into them yet. But it's something that I'm paying attention to to see what data starts to come in on the actual societal decline and. Birthrights? And this could also additionally another factor that has we played into this is there's been a major drop in family formation in the United States. So in addition all of the previous discussions, and I'm not a demographer. So it's possible this is baked in. But my my suspicion is that with the massive decline in family formation in the United States. And with the fact that the families are formed are simply not stable that this is going to increase even more to to declines in birth rates. And so I think there's basically a perfect storm with regard to family formation with regard to. Children that is going to possibly make these these things even worse. And I think that perfect storm is still gathering. I think there's some indications and we'll see what happens in coming years with that. But. I mean, you see you see it at all on all on all sides. People kill the babies don't have babies don't foreign families, the families that are being formed not stable generally. It's better among the wealthy but family formation among middle class and poor people has been just utterly devastated. The. That's difficult. And I don't know how much of that is baked into this into these assessments here, let's continue on and I'll just repeat the discussion of economic panacea up steep economic growth. A strong economy is necessary, but far from sufficient for major deficit reduction growth rates will already be limited by the labor force slowdown caused by baby boomer retirement and declining birth rates that leaves productivity to drive growth. So no problem. Well, let's start by disregarding CBS 2018 projection that total US factor. Productivity will continue growing at the one point two percent average rate of the past thirty years. And instead assume the white hot one point eight percent rate that prevailed from nineteen Ninety-two through two thousand five most economists would consider this far too optimistic, nevertheless, the resulting higher incomes and tax revenues from this productivity Jetstream would seem to close at least forty percent of the cumulative deficits through two thousand forty eight until. Still one accounts for the fact that higher incomes automatically result in higher social security benefits when the workers who earned them retire. Much can be done to increase real economic growth rates of bub. CBO's long-term one point nine percent annual projections in particular, lawmakers should aim to grow the labor force participation rate continue to refine the tax code to encourage work savings and investment and improve policies in the areas of trade energy job training, education and healthcare, however, a refusal to address surging spending and deficits would still undermine economic growth by raising interest rates decreasing business investment, and ultimately forcing up taxes lawmakers should aspire to faster growth, but not simply assume it, especially if entitlement costs keep growing inflate the dead away in the short term higher inflation candlelight. Some of today's twenty trillion dollars, national debt, however, social security and Medicare benefit. That's and payments are also tied to inflation. So future liabilities would expand. Additionally, Washington would have to pay much higher interest rates when borrowing to finance those benefits low interest rates CBO's twenty eighteen long term budget outlook assumes that the national debt can rise from thirty five percent to one hundred and fifty percent of GDP between two thousand seven and two thousand forty eight with its average interest rate peaking at just four point four percent, which is below even the levels of the nineteen nineties six point nine percent and two thousand four point eight percent by contrast, the economic policy community consensus is that such a large increase in federal debt would raise interest rates for each percentage point that interest rates rise. Washington must pay approximately thirteen trillion dollars more in interest costs over thirty years. That means an even higher Nash. Debt, immigration, smart, immigration policy may on net. Marginally improve the federal budget picture and the economy. It is not a cure all high skill immigrants send higher tax revenues during their working careers, but their eventual retirement into social security and Medicare would add new liabilities to the system. Low skill immigrants generally increased costs to the federal government, and especially to state and local governments at least in the first or second generation because the resulting education infrastructure and social spending exceeds the added tax revenues, by the way, this discussion on immigration is one of the more important discussions, obviously, it's it's it's not being handled well in the broadscale United States, and instead we have various factions that are retreating into their corners and not having a rational discussion and. Anyway, I it's a major problem continue on with conservative, fantasies pro growth tax policy. Economic growth is obviously important to deficit reduction and tach tax legislation that depresses savings and investment must be avoided. Nevertheless, the historical record clearly shows that the vast majority of tax cuts do not increase tax revenues, especially by enough to keep pace with federal programs growing six percent to seven percent annually. What about eliminating welfare and lower priority. Spending over the past fifteen years congressional GOP deficit reduction budget plans typically imposed nearly all the first decades cuts on anti-poverty programs, Medicaid, subsidies, snap, aka food stamps, and others as well as non-defense discretionary spending such as education veterans, health, homeland security, medical research and infrastructure. This pot of spending seven percent of GDP and declining would have to be mostly eliminated to balance the budget a decade from now these cuts will never be passed by any congress as their advocates on Capitol Hill and in top think tanks, surely know, while there are any number of failed and unnecessary programs in need of major reform proposals to eviscerate these entire categories of spending while leading social security and Medicare off the hook or a politic. Delusional distraction. What about impossibly tight spending caps? Spending caps are a vital tool to enforce realistic spending targets, but absent any achievable underlying programmatic reforms to meet those targets. They are an empty gimmick. Nevertheless, many conservative budget blueprint simply divide the federal budget into five to eight spending categories, and then assume unprecedented cuts in targeted categories with no underlying policy proposals to achieve those targets. For instance. President Trump's latest budget proposal assumes a sixty percent reduction by twenty twenty eight in total non-defense discretionary spending as a percentage of GDP the budget proposal provides no breakdown of which specific programs would be slashed and how they would operate. Once all cuts are enacted. The two thousand eleven budget control act has shown that overly tight caps. We'll be cancelled rather than force politically suicidal cuts devolution to stay. Governments. There is a strong policy case for allowing states to have more control over poverty relief, education, infrastructure, economic development and law enforcement spending, however, counting the federal savings from devolution as the centerpiece of a deficit reduction strategy is disingenuous because it simply shifts the deficits taxes to the state level minus modest efficiency gains that might come from better state fiscal management. The purpose of deficit reduction is to limit government, borrowing and tax increases and to limited gimmick damage, not merely to change the address where the taxes are sent. What about liberal fantasies? What about just tax the rich? Liberal advocates often vastly overstate the degree to which upper income tax increases can finance the ever expanding government in the first place. The US already has the most progressive tax code in the even adjusting for differences in income inequality, and setting aside, the moral questions that would be raised by the government seizing the vast majority of any family's income. Basic math shows that large tax increases on high income Americans cannot close most of the long-term budget deficit start with an extreme proposition. A one hundred percent tax rate on all income over five hundred thousand dollars result. This would raise barely more than five percent of GDP at least for year one. After that one needs a heroic. Nick, if not absurd projection that this tax would have no effect on working or investment next. Try a slightly more realistic. Doubling of the top thirty five percent and thirty seven percent tax brackets to seventy percent and seventy four percent result. This would raise only approximately one point six percent of GDP, and even that figure ignores all revenues lost to the economic effects of eighty five percent marginal tax rates when including state and payroll taxes on work or investment as well as tax avoidance and evasion. And by the way, here you should go and look at figure five in this particular report where each of the various proposals including that doubling talks about is calculated in terms of its actual savings, and what it would how far it would actually get you towards these goals popular proposals to impose a thirty percent. Minimum tax on millionaires and two more aggressively tax banks hedge fund managers and oil and gas companies would raise a combined point one percent of GDP or lose revenue if they trim the economic growth rate by even one twentieth of one percent. The point four percent of GDP raised by twenty five dollars per metric ton carbon tax would be passed onto households through higher energy bills. The top earning five percent of families and pass through businesses currently account for thirty percent of all income. That means that seventy percent of this tax base comes from those outside the top five percent. Furthermore, that top five percent already pays forty two percent of all federal taxes, including sixty one percent of all federal income taxes, which leaves less room for additional taxes. So while some upper income tax increases are possible. The idea that America can close an eighteen trillion dollar social security shortfall and forty one trillion dollar Medicare shortfall and even pay for additional spending proposals on the liberal agenda, solely by sticking it to the rich is a fantasy that finds no support in budget math, nor can corporate tax hikes close much of the gap America's total corporate tax revenues are generally in line with other developed nations, although modest reforms may be on the table. Major changes such as a ten point rate increase would raise less than point five percent of GDP while giving more companies and incentive to relocate abroad, repealing the two thousand seventeen tax cut. Jobs act would not significantly raise corporate tax revenues either. As that portion of the law was almost entirely paid for through a combination of tax offsets and additional revenues from projected economic growth. An inescapable reality gets lost in this country's intractable budget debates. If America wants to spend like Europe, it must also tax like Europe. This means in addition to federal and state income taxes, a value added tax VAT, essentially national sales tax that affects all families lawmakers who pledged to stabilize the debt without touching government. Spending would need new tax revenues equivalent to evaluate a tax that rises to seventeen percent by twenty thirty and thirty four percent by twenty forty eight alternatively lawmakers could raise the payroll tax from fifteen point three percent to thirty three point five percent. Rather than concentrating all the revenues within one tax figure five shows that a combination of large income payroll, capital gains, corporate and value added tax increases would likely be needed to raise six percent of GDP and stabilize the debt without touching social security, Medicare, Medicaid and anti-poverty and social spending while it is easy to say major spending. Decreases are a non starter, the all tax alternative is even less plausible. I wanna pause here. Just to point out a couple of thoughts for your personal planning before we move onto deep defense cuts. I want you to think about what you would do if the top marginal tax bracket were doubled from thirty seven percent to seventy four percent. I want you to think about what you would do if a national sales tax were added to the tune of twenty to thirty five percent if you had a national sales tax on all purchases in the United States after twenty to thirty five percent. And or I want you to think about if your payroll taxes increased from fifteen percent to thirty three and a half percent. What would you do? Because one of the scenarios that we have to plan for is tax planning is what would happen if the United States goes down this road. Now is it possible possible as a plausible plausible as a probable? It's hard for me to see it right now. But demographic changes might change that I commonly hear people say, hey, I'm willing to pay more taxes. Okay. Maybe we'll go down that road. So you need to think about what you would do in that situation. Considerate. We'll see I'll tell you this. I'll teach you how to eliminate all those taxes, and I I wouldn't be around for deep defense cuts. What about the defense cuts since the nineteen seventies eighties? The Pentagon budget has fallen from six percent to three percent of GDP not far above Europe's. Target of two percent, cutting US defense spending to the levels pledged by European members of NATO would save one percent of GDP or roughly one seventh of the social security and Medicare long-term shortfall and Europe's target level is possible only because it's leaders can count on protection from a larger superpower a luxury that the United States would not enjoy a healthy portion of America's higher defense. Budget comes from spending one hundred thousand dollars per troop and compensation salary pension housing, healthcare and other benefits which lawmakers are not eager to cut some long-term budget. Savings are possible though, it should be noted that President Obama did not propose reducing the. Gun budget to anywhere near the levels of France or the UK. What about single payer healthcare, which is of course, quite the current discussion as we move into the twenty twenty election season, which by the way, my one political jab which will make the rules close years. Anybody notice how the fact that the Affordable Care Act ObamaCare was passed and it was failed to be repealed by the Republicans who promised that they were going to do it. And then they failed. Anybody noticed how that's just basically disappeared now? And the now the push what we got to have single payer. That's the whole goal all the energy. Is there? Let me tell you just a brief bit of historical fact from me Joshua because these are couple of things that have contributed to my own personal struggles with all this stuff when the Affordable Care Act was proposed. I was a I was I was I sold health insurance. I gotten my insure. License, and I sold health insurance and my favorite kind of health insurance acelle was just individual health insurance policies. I didn't do much group health insurance work. I just didn't enjoy it. I came to the conclusion that nobody liked their health insurance agent because they were they were money of the premiums were already always going up. Just wasn't fun. I didn't care for it. So I didn't wanna do it. Although I knew many successful advisers that would always keep a small health insurance practice and make a hundred thousand dollars a year from their health insurance book in addition to all their financial planning work. So I always thought it could be done. But I I wasn't interested in it. But I got appointed with a number of different health insurance companies. And basically if somebody wanted health insurance, I would just simply go to one of those companies, and we could get just inexpensive catastrophic individual health insurance policies that approach has always made sense to me. It's always what I wanted. I'll just pay out of pocket for all my medical bills. I just want health insurance where if I have one hundred thousand dollar medic. Oh, Bill that that that that everything from ten to one hundred thousand dollars is picked up by insurance, and you used to be able to buy that stuff. The policies were inexpensive. I sold quite a few of them. And I enjoyed it. When the Affordable Care Act was proposed. I started to pay attention, and I really wondered about it and. In time. I came to the perspective of just simply saying, this is not gonna work cannot work. It doesn't make any sense. It doesn't make any sense financially. But I would hear people advanced the theory that the whole goal of the Affordable Care Act was to disrupt and destroy the health insurance marketplace, so that it would usher in single payer healthcare. It always sounded like a conspiracy theory that didn't have a lot of support. And I just thought it was probably not but I- over time. And watching it I started to come to the conclusion, I said, this can't nobody can think this will actually work the the data is to clear, nobody can actually think that this actually work. Well, the Affordable Care Act passed middle of the night all kinds of chicanery to to make it pass. No, bipartisan, consensus all democratic paid for. Desario democratic voted for policies when that happened over the next year or two health insurance premiums started to go up, and then systematically, I I came I stopped telling health insurance over time all the come all the policies that I had sold the company's massively increased their rates all the people that were on those policies were forced off enforced onto the exchange. Now, obviously this did offer it an interesting financial planning opportunity because previously had always been very important that a prudent planner maintain their own health insurance coverage, but when the requirement of pre existing conditions was eliminated. Then there became no reason to have to maintain coverage if you didn't want to and if you could work out the tax issues, but most of my clients were not in that situation. I liked it. A few many people were happy many sick people start sign up people that had had trouble getting health insurance. So I just kind of moved on. Then I started to watch after the day. Then I started to watch all the data that came out from President Obama's team that had been the architects of the health insurance and the lies that they had said, basically exposed, and I started to think you know, what? I bet you there was more to this idea that the whole thing was designed to fail from the beginning. Because when you have the tapes of the architects talking about the lie, it's not just the president's lies. Not just if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor now, if you like you're paying you plan, you can keep your plan not just that nonsense. But the actual architects the behind the scene people. I came to the point. I said, you know, what that that theory? Now makes a lot more sense. Now, as we watch what's happening in two thousand nineteen that theory that I used to resist that just sounded too crazy to say, oh, Bama care was designed to fail to usher in single payer. Watch. What happens in the next few years? I don't have my crystal borrow ball is broken. But that's theory makes a lot more sense than it ever did. So it's a frustrating. Bit of historical analysis, just because I was involved in that it was all stuff that I did in the last ten years. I saw it up front, and I've had to had to admit that I was wrong ten years ago. And now we'll see what happens in the next couple of years moving on now back to the article. I hope you enjoyed that commentary and my liberal friends. You can unplug your ears now what about single payer healthcare when confronted with rising Medicare and Medicaid costs driving federal deficits, a popular response in the left is to propose single payer healthcare. The theory here is that a fully socialized health plan would drastically slash costs to families and the federal budget. There is some debate over whether single payer would slightly increase or decrease total national health expenditures. The most generous analysis of Senator Bernie Sanders Medicare for all act performed by the Mercatus center center shows a three percent reduction in projected national health expenditures, although those savings charitably. Rely on the bills assumption that private health insurance can be nationalized with reimbursement. Rates for its health providers cut by approximately forty percent, a massive reduction that the Mercatus center analysis notes is wildly implausible analyses. That assume more realistic payment rates such as those performed by the politically liberal urban institute, showing notable increase in national health spending under a single payer healthcare, regardless of whether total nationwide health spending would slightly rise or fall. It is obvious that transferring the entire healthcare system to the federal government would substantially increase federal spending, thus virtually all analyses of single payer healthcare from the politically liberal urban institute to the conservative Mercatus center. Have estimated a first decade cost of twenty four trillion dollars to twenty nine trillion dollars to the federal government that is on top of current federal health. Spending that has already growing at unsustainable rates and at the large provider payment rate reductions proved to be unrealistic the cost will rise by trillions. More some suggests that these new federal costs would be fully paid for by the health savings to families, businesses and state governments. This response leaves unanswered. The rather large question of how to convert every dollar of current private sector and state government health spending into a nearly thirty trillion dollar single payer tax single payer advocates have still not provided a tax proposal that covers more than half of the exorbitant federal cost the most likely option a payroll tax would need to be set at thirty percent on top of the current fifteen point three percent rate. There is no indication that Americans would accept tax increases this large, even if they no longer pay premiums for health insurance. Furthermore. For these new taxes would finance only the added federal costs of the new single payer system. Not the underlying cost of current federal health spending. In other words, Medicare for all would not address Medicare's projected forty one trillion dollar cash shortfall over the next three decades. It would simply make Medicare more generous and then expanded to everyone under age sixty five perhaps lawmakers should figure out how to pay for the current Medicare system before pledging nearly thirty trillion dollars per decade to expand it. Now, we move onto cross partisan fantasies social security trust fund to the rescue. Some suggests that redeeming the three trillion dollars in assets held by the social security trust fund will shield tax payers from the cost of social security's deficits in the first place. This three trillion dollars accounts for a small fraction of the systems eighteen trillion dollar cash deficit over thirty years. More important the trust fund contains no economic resources with which to pay benefits it consists of a pile of us in a filing cabinet in Parkersburg West Virginia. This three trillion dollars in social security assets reflects a three trillion dollar liability for taxpayers who must repay the bonds with interest over the next sixteen years all future social security benefits will be financed by future taxes. Ios and borrowing. Long-term budget protection projections are just theory Americans otherwise inclined to be skeptical of thirty year projections, should nevertheless, take these seriously future inflation rates are indeed anyone's guess, but the seventy four million baby boomers retiring into social security and Medicare are an actuary. Oh, and demographic reality these present and future retirees exist and the payment formulas have already been set. Furthermore, any future? Uncertainties are an argument for caution and prudence. What about the argument that there's no hurry? Some cert- that lawmakers can wait ten or fifteen years to address this challenge. Unfortunately, every year of delay raises the eventual cost of a budget fix because one on average four million more baby boomers retire into social security and Medicare and lawmakers have generally avoided reducing benefits for those already receiving them to benefit levels rise further above and affordable level and three the larger national debt locks in permanently higher interest costs the blueprint in. This report assumes that most reforms are implemented in twenty twenty three which means that stabilizing the debt at ninety five percent of GDP requires the some of annual tax increases and interest spending cuts to rise to six percent of GDP by twenty forty eight those required twenty forty eight savings rise to nine percent of GDP if performs are delayed until twenty thirty and. Twelve percent of GDP if reforms do not begin until twenty thirty five. I want to insert just a moment of commentary into this. Remember, this paper is all predicated upon the idea that in-fighting years these things will be put into practice, and if put into practice these comprehensive massive cuts, which will get to in a minute if put into practice, this will stabilize the debt at ninety five percent of GDP not pay it off, but stabilize it at ninety five percent of GDP. That's the very best most optimistic scenario, but everything in this is built upon the idea that in five years by twenty twenty three these reforms will be implemented. Now, here's the problem in two thousand nineteen looking forward. Let me ask you this. Do you have any confidence that these reforms or anything close to these reforms could be implemented in the coming years? I cannot possibly see it in the current political scenario. No matter what happens with the twenty twenty election at the moment. Of course. Just a bit of political announce at the moment in two thousand nineteen we have a strong and ascendant Democratic Party in control of the house of representatives. And there is a decent chance at that energy in the house of representatives could continue with increasing gains in the democratic majority. It's possible. Now, of course, the opposite is also possible, but it's possible in the Democratic Party. We have these strong and ascendant, hyper left-wing, very very big spendy group of people and the massive move in the Democratic Party has been to the left somebody like Bill Clinton looks like like a Republican at this point in time in terms of the massive moved to the left just this last week as I record this Senator Sanders has officially launched his campaign. Now, of course, he faces major challenges, but if anybody got massive traction in the two thousand sixteen presidential campaign that was unexpected, of course, President Trump's traction unexpected. But then of. Of course, you had Senator Sanders traction that was absolutely huge. So time will play out in the next year. We'll see what happens with the democratic nominee for president. But there is a very it's hard to imagine that a centrist fiscal hawk gets elected as forgets nominated as a democratic candidate for president. Now, what about on the Republican side? Well, it looks like there's almost it's almost hard to see see how anybody except President Trump is the Republican nomination. Now in theory, if there were some kind of massive impeachment process or some kind of massive illegal activity that were proved for example, by the results of the Mueller report it Sarah in theory, perhaps there could be another Republican candidate. But I I don't see how an if even if there were Republican candidate other than Trump. I don't see how Republican other than Trump could get reelected, and it all indications are that. No such argument would no such data is going to come out at this point in time. Of course, the Mueller investigation should be issuing its report soon. But I don't see any any any good evidence. That would indicate that we should expect any kind of massive upset to the political equilibrium right now. No, we'll President Trump get reelected or not. How would we how can we know? But I don't see how a non Trump Republican could get elected. I don't see how any kind of other moderate fiscal hawk Republican kind of the same old stayed conservative person. I don't see how any any person like that could get elected even if they were nominated. So you either have as far as I can tell in the presidency, you either have a President Trump again for a second term going through twenty twenty four or you have a strongly left wing, very spendy democrat in the presidential office. Now, what's the only restraint? The only restraint would seem. To be that. There's a decent chance at the Senate, the fiscal restraint astronomy is that it seems almost impossible in under current projections that the Senate would lose its Republican majority for right now for the coming election cycle at the minimum. So you could have very plausibly. You could have a very left wing democrat controlled house of representatives and a left-wing democrat in the president. You could have a Republican still in the presidency any democrat democratic house of representatives and Republican Senate now who knows with any of these things, right? We're watching seat. But here's the point notice, what is entirely absent in any of those scenarios that I think are plausible. There are no fiscal conservatives. There are no fiscal hawks as they are known. They're vanishing breed disappeared Paul Ryan that was his big claim to fame and he's gone. He slunk out of office. He's gone who in any case is actually out. There advocating saying we should spend less money the president. That was the most restrained on spending was President Obama, and it wasn't because his ideology indicated that he should be restrained on spending was because he was he was stymied on every side by a Republican majority in the house and the Senate, and that's what kept him from being able to spend much money. So he was the biggest fiscal hawk of any presidency. Going back for. For a long time. So I I know this is a lot of political analysis. But my point is where does it come from. Now, let's say that you said, well, even with a whomever, maybe there's a a maybe President Trump is reelected into the presidency. But there is a democratic majority in the house, and there's a strong centrist majority in the Senate. Okay. Maybe that's possible. It certainly as possible. But where does some coalition come together that says, we're going to tackle this budget? Problem weren't actually gonna talk to each other. When when the issues that are at hand terms of legislation are so divisive. And our and seem so much more important in terms of the culture were issues that versus trying to figure out how to rein in the budget, and when you have such an entrenched political majority of the baby boomers and their voting block how on earth does any meaningful. Reform get an acted now. If I'm missing something, you tell me, but you watch it over the next few years as I will be watching it as well and understand that these dire scenarios discussed in this report. Are all predicated on by twenty twenty three being able to come up with a political solution? That is bipartisan. At the moment. It looks to me as though it is impossible. I can't see the event that would change it those likely course of action in my mind is at the US start another major war or wars started with the US. And then that would just be the worse because everything goes out the window then but time will tell we'll see what happens one more cross partisan fantasy back to the paper. Let the kids deal with the problem. The final argument against reform asserts that social security and Medicare benefits represent an unbreakable unamendable promise to the elderly consequences be damned in reality. Retirement benefits have been repeatedly expanded far beyond what current retirees were promised. While they were working, for example, President George W Bush in congress decided in two thousand and three that current tax payers would pay seventy five percent of the prescription drug costs of the current typical senior this benefit was never earned through payroll taxes and today's teenagers never signed up for this budget busting deal. One more commentary on this thing. All of this assumes, some kind of nationalistic identity some kind of patriotism the sense that oh, we're Americans, and we're going to just stick with it. I see that as a roading. So you have two major cultural issues with a young younger generations number one is very few younger people seem to exhibit much particular care for older generations in the US American society. You have a general disdain on younger people on behalf of older, people age is not something that is appreciated and honored rather? It's something that is generally looked down on people write about how they don't want to. Do it women makes stupid comments about I'm not going to tell you my age, and it's supposed to be impolite ask somebody their age. There is this general societal Dane for the elderly. This disdain is is continually being expressed in social changes so American parents institutionalize their children, and then they turn around and wonder why their children institutionalized their parents. And then in addition you. Have a massive worldview conflicts that don't seem to be able to be be cared for and work down in the society at large you have massive differences between older generations and younger generations in terms of political ideology in worldview, and even just basic considerations of morality of what's right? What's wrong in lifestyle decisions lifestyle choices at cetera. So when you put all this stuff together why on earth? Do you think that children or so, you know, kids in this context, and why would young people want to pay for all the stuff that old people did the disdain even in the political space of younger people to the old people who've you many younger people, especially more liberal left wing political perspectives, basically view that everything that the past did was wrong that that the United States just just a bunch of imperialistic Nazis. And now everything was wrong. So why on earth would we expect younger people to say I'm going to buckle in and I'm going to pay this to support the older generations. In addition. You assume then this case that children can't simply leave. And now, you have a major change where there once was a stronger nationalistic identity of what it meant to be a US American in the United States of America. You had this this context? Well, I'm American we get this through this together. But in the current fractured, US, American culture. I don't see much of that. I do not see much of that at all. And so the people like me who have an affinity for what the United States has been and what the has stood for have an affinity for that. But I don't recognize the country that I live in now. And so why should I? And so I'm much more committed to those principles and ideals. No matter what country they are expressed in. Then I am the actual particular country. Now, many people have a much more liberal instead of my appreciation for so many things in the American pass many of my friends and peers have have nothing but disdain for what happened in the past. So why on earth would that set of people stick around to pay much higher taxes? A bunch of old people at some point the kids are going to stiff the old people. I I don't see any other way around it. And those are just some of the reasons why I think that's a rational point of analysis. I hope that makes sense to you. But I am far more conservative, politically, whatever that means. But I'm much issues commonly understood term, I am far more conservative than almost anybody that I know and yet my plan at this point is to prepare my children to never have to live in the United States and never have to deal with this stuff. Now, if they choose to or if we choose to fine. But at this point, I'm establishing the infrastructure, so that none of us ever have to be in the United States to do these problems. And I want to make sure that they're never their wagons. Never hitched to the future of the United States. If they don't choose it to be now, I'm pretty extreme. I take action more than a lot of people. But if that's for me, who's a fairly extreme conservative much more conservative, many people that I know then how does that same theory not press through for people who are less conservative than me about the the thing that I don't have is. I don't have the same kind of jingoistic blind nationalism that a lot of people have. But I don't see why. Many other. Parents wouldn't do what I'm doing which is to say. Okay. Well, if the United States continues to provide a good value proposition twenty thirty years from now fine. But I'm not gonna stick around and deal with the problem. I didn't create it. It's not my fault. It's not my kid's fault. I'm going to help them get out to me that seems practical and pragmatic. So you you assess for yourself, but I see a small portion of the American population that ascribes to this intense nationalism to the point of jingoism that this, you know, salute the flag and God bless America. And all this stuff. But I. I don't see how that stands because that's only a small wing of the Republican party. And I think most thoughtful people look at that and say, you know, I don't stand for this. I mean, why should I why should I salute the flag when it stands for all these things, and as as you have an increasing rise and surging of more left wing, cultural issues in the United States for most of us who were on the right who who tend to have that more nationalism perspective that just increasingly lat adds to the shame and embarrassment of being associated with the United States rather than any kind of nationalistic pride. I don't know if that's help for Notts extended commentary here on this idea of the kids deal with the problem, but you have a generational problem. And I think you can't ever get away from that. So I'm smack dab in the mini middle Emma leading lineal, and I'm smack dab in the middle. And I would just say take that because there's a big cultural difference between baby boomers versus me is a millennial versus our children. And the problems are going to be presented as my fellow millennials our children arrive at working age. And so I think this sounds very millennial but pay attention to what's happening in my generation. The and the most obvious thing you watch is the data that my generation's not having children. So you can't depend on our children to to to do that a few of us. Of course, try to break, those trends and single-handedly reverse the birthing statistics. But that's. A heavy load to pair. We'll talk about that more other talk. It's not easy as you hear in the background of today's show with my young children doing the very best to say quiet while I record this show. Moving on to section three. A bipartisan plan to stabilize the long-term federal budget. Let's get to the actual proposals of this long proposal. A realistic path to averting the country's future. Debt crisis will require lawmakers to reject gimmicks, slogans and empty budget targets in favor of plausible changes to the current arc of federal spending and taxes specific changes whose effect on the federal budget can be spoke scored by CBO methodology, and because deficit reduction policies are never popular major reforms need to be enacted on a bipartisan basis much like the nineteen Eighty-three social security reforms any attempt to pass these major changes on a party line vote would undermine their political the their public legitimacy would be politically suicidal and would likely be repealed when the opposition party returns to power the path put forward in. This report is meant to achieve these objectives. Number one longterm fiscal. Stain ability moving to a fully balanced budget is probably not possible. However stabilizing the national debt around ninety five percent of GDP near the level projected in twenty twenty three when most policies would be implemented with likely stabilize the cost of interest on the national debt and the debts effect on the economy. This means annual budget deficits, gradually declining to three point two percent of GDP over three decades sustainability also means that both spending and tax revenues stabilize as a percentage of GDP rather than continue to rise in tandem. Finally, long term sustainability means that showy reforms such as across the board such as across the board. Discretionary spending cuts are less important than subtle entitlement reforms that produced larger savings over time number to achieve most savings from major mandatory programs. There are three reasons. For this objective. I it's the only solution that addresses the underlying problem. Mandatory spending is the primary factor. Driving the debt upward CBO's long-term baseline shows that one hundred percent of the long term increase in annual budget deficits, the share of the economy comes from the rising cost of social security, Medicare and other health entitlements as well as the resulting interest on the debt remaining federal spending is projected by CBO to continue falling as a share of the economy tax revenues are projected to rise above average levels. It is not sustainable to chase ever rising entitlement costs with ever rising tax rates or to eviscerate all other federal programs. The second reason is generational equity drowning younger workers in ever rising taxes is no more moral than drowning them in debt. Particularly. Early when the entire reduce the tax burden will finance the largest intergenerational wealth transfer in world history retirees are typically wealthier than working age men and women and over the years social security and Medicare benefits have been enacted that far exceed retirees lifetime contributions to the programs rather than passing this burden onto their kids. They have a responsibility to pare back their benefits to affordable levels. The third reason is economic the level of tax increases that would be necessary to keep pace with escalating entitlement spending, including a thirty three percent payroll tax rate or a thirty four percent VAT would retard economic growth across other countries. The most successful fiscal consolidations such as Finland in the UK in the late eighteen nineteen ninety in the late nineteen nineties have averaged eighty five percent spending restraint and fifteen percent new taxes consolidations that failed. Or significantly harmed. The economy, we're typically split more equally between new taxes and spending restraint. Three specific and plausible changes only most other long-term budget proposals show larger and more immediate budget savings than this blueprint. Unfortunately, those savings usually rely on some combination of overlay overly optimistic economic growth assumptions, the immediate implementation of extraordinarily complicated and controversial reforms to major programs that in reality would take several years to draft pass implement and phase in aggressive spending cuts or tax increase targets along with sample policy proposals that outta to only a small fraction of the required budgetary savings. Heavy reliance on unrealistically tight spending caps without showing how to meet them and combining various tax increase proposals. That collectively result in unrealistically high tax burdens for certain groups or the generally duplicate or contradict one another. Additionally, many long-term budget proposals are based on liberal or conservative pieties such as taxing the rich. And Tra higher rates or eliminating most welfare and domestic discretionary spending this blueprint attempts to thread, the needle of effective policy, and the political reality that any major lasting deal must be bipartisan this budget blueprint works within the current structure of government rather than proposing complete rewrites of major programs or the tax code it. Defied devise reforms into four tiers and seeks maximum savings in a given tier before moving onto the next tier one squeeze out inefficiencies from the major health programs driving spending upward tier to trim social security and Medicare benefits for upper income retirees to your three trim other federal programs to the extent feasible on a bipartisan basis tier four closed the remaining gap with new taxes in the broadest and least damaging manner possible. The blueprint also provides that the lowest income forty percent of seniors are protected from any social security or Medicare cuts, although the social security full. Retirement age largely rise spending cuts to anti-poverty programs are largely avoided parody between discretionary defense and nondefense. Spending is maintained Washington. Structural budget deficits are not passed onto the nation's governors tax increases or kept within reasonable limits policy. Changes are phased in gradually mostly beginning in twenty twenty three and economic growth is assumed to be no faster than in CBO's long-term projection. The first step towards scoring a long-term budget is a credible thirty year baseline regarding this blueprints baseline. It begins with CBO's June two thousand eighteen long term budget outlook, which projects the two thousand eighteen to twenty forty eight baseline based on current law next. Current law baseline is converted to a current policy baseline by assuming that expiring tax cuts and tax toria. Gms are made permanent for reasons explained in the paragraph spending on discretionary and smaller mandatory programs level off at their projected twenty twenty eight percentage of GDP I'm going to skip forward here because this is extremely technical. This is important. But this is the very this is the most difficult thing to pass forward. With regard to audio this audio format. So I'm going to skip all of the baseline discussion here and move onto what actually needs to happen. Up to now have read the entire paper. But at this point, it's just too unwieldy for audio. So let me just give you a couple of these suggestions here is the first. Set of suggestion social security benefits. One point two percent of GDP trimmed from the twenty forty eight baseline the social security reform act of 2016 authored by the House, Ways, and means social security subcommittee chairman. Sam Johnson Republican from Texas provides a starting point while the plan is not perfect to provide significant long-term savings from wealthier retirees instead of rising from four point nine percent to six point three percent of GDP through twenty forty eight and CBS baseline outlays under the social security reform act. I would road rise to five point eight percent of GDP by twenty thirty. Forgive me. I thought I could read the stuff it's it's still too complex for this audio format. So let me just give you a summary of the proposals. The author recommend suggests of wide. Tightening on social security, Medicare, Medicaid, and various other discretionary and non discretionary spending programs. In addition. Let's move onto the tax section. And see how that would be affected. Getting from here to there with regard to taxes relative to an updated current policy CBO baseline the spending reforms in this blueprint would produce budget savings equal to four point five percent of GDP annually by twenty forty eight to reach the blueprints. Overall, six point zero percent of GDP in non interests savings. The final one point five percent must come from new taxes a current policy CBO baseline already assumes even if the two thousand seventeen tax cuts are made permanent. That revenues will still jump by two percent of GDP over this period because of real meaning CPI adjusted bracket creep and the Daleus of taxable retirement distributions from retiring baby boomers, so the one point five percent of GDP tax hike proposed in this blueprint would bring the total twenty eighteen to twenty forty eight revenue increased three point five percent of GDP the one and a half percent of GDP in proposed legislative tax hikes consists of phasing down the tax inclusion for employer provided health care yielding additional revenue of point seven two percent of GDP by twenty forty eight raising the Medicare and social security payroll tax by one percentage point each while. Adding a one percentage point income tax surcharge above the level where the social security tax on earnings maxes out yielding dishes, revenue two point seven three percent of GDP and allowing various so called December tax extenders to be offset or expire yielding additional revenue equal to point Z. Five percent of GDP. Starting in twenty twenty three the employer healthcare. Tax exclusions would be capped at the seventy fifth percentile of health insurance premiums paid by employers that year, replacing the ObamaCare Cadillac tax that was never implemented the cap level setting a maximum deductible premium would then grow annually at the rate of the CPI capping the exclusion will reduce business incentives to overspend on health benefits and to downplay cost containment, and thus contribute to a to broader efficiency, savings and healthcare. It will also increase take home pay for many workers because more of their compensation would go toward wages rather than health insurance premiums, the exposure of more employee compensation to payroll and income taxes means more revenue collected by the federal government under this proposal. Equal two point two percent of GDP raising the social security and Medicare payroll tax by one percentage point each is recommended for two reasons, I stated above the social security Medicare systems face a combined one hundred trillion dollar cash deficit over thirty years. So. Makes sense to concentrate budget savings and those two systems second any tax increases should be widely dispersed to minimize economic disruptions, the alternative of imposing enormous tax hikes on one industry group of people would significantly decrease incentives to work save and invest and thus harm economic growth, which would also decrease the resulting new tax revenues a simple two percentage point payroll tax increase, but between social security and Medicare will affect nearly all workers while crippling very few the social security payroll tax, max out at certain income levels hundred twenty eight thousand seven hundred and two thousand eighteen the blueprint proposes adding a one percentage point tax to income above that level. So that the new tax remains proportional. Those who would prefer that all new taxes come from upper income tax payers should note that these tax payers would already bear nearly the entire cost of three percent of GDP in social security and Medicare reforms as well as most of the cost of scaling back, the employer health exclusion. Replacing the two percentage point increase on the social security Medicare payroll tax with a twenty percentage point income tax hike on families earning above four hundred thousand dollars would raise a similar amount of revenue yet significantly damaged the economy and raise equity concerns alternatively eliminating the twelve point four percent social security earnings cap raising point eight percent of GDP would combine with the benefit changes described above to leave social security with a large surplus and Medicare with an enormous deficit. Well, also, pushing combined federal and state marginal tax rates is highest sixty two percent. Under this blueprint, the bottom income forty percent of retirees would already see no reduction in social security benefit formulas and no hike in Medicare premiums. And there are no significant cuts to anti-poverty or social spending for many who are working the modest payroll tax increase would be their only cost of this substantial fiscal consolidation beyond a future higher social security full benefit retirement age. Now, what about sticking to the blueprint to maintain a balance between tax and spending changes lock lawmakers would need to code by the spending tax proposals in this blueprint with thirty year targets every five years. Lawmakers should be required to ensure that social security Medicare, Medicaid and tax revenues each remained on their original thirty your path and to enact further reforms for any category who savings are not materializing failure. To return any veering categories to their present path would trigger automatic reforms to the given category. Pay go laws and statutory discretionary spending caps can help keep the rest of the budget on its preset path. Statutory caps would be useful because they would reflect a bipartisan consensus and specific underlying reforms if lower deficits should emerge just from higher tax revenues, thanks to faster economic growth or lower healthcare spending due to more expanded efficiencies. Lawmakers should I be required to offset any recent budgetary losses from recessions or emerge? Spending. If lower deficits should emerge such as from higher tax revenues, thanks to faster economic growth or lower healthcare spending due to more expanded efficiencies. Lawmakers should I be required to offset any recent budgetary losses from recessions or emergency spending. Once that is done. The next one percent of GDP and savings should remain unspent as a down payment on future emergencies or recessions, only after that should lawmakers consider temporary new tax cuts or spending increases congress should avoid enacting permanently expensive policies in response to temporary savings windfalls, especially considered that even with the stabilized debt. The annual budget will still be indefinite. Now, I want to skip past this past the group impacts. I just wanna say this. I appreciate reading articles like this because they show that in theory, if you have certain preconditions there are solutions to big problems. And I appreciate that. However, some of those preconditions are pretty substantial, for example, I would say this assumes that you have an educated and intelligent electorate willing to disregard self interest. And things that are personally gratifying in favor of voting for people who are virtuous representatives of of what's in the long term best interests of the people. Sounds nice. I don't see it. I just don't see it. We don't have an intelligent and educated electorate. We have a stupid and distracted electorate. We don't have people who understand or can even come concede of the the the intricacies of this kind of thing. We have people who are motivated by slogans and foolish things. The the average audience have of radical personal finance is has a isn't a very high Chalan of the general population. The fact that I use words I mean, I'm using an advanced this this Pentire paper is written in an advanced college vocabulary. This entire discussion is complex. It's dealing unique to high degree of numeracy to to sustain these things. I'm an hour and forty minutes into this discussion, which means that I have no doubt lost eighty percent of the of the radical personal finance listening audience, which is a tiny fraction of the general population. The US American. Elector is not educated is not intelligent and is not virtuous enough to vote for things that are against ourself interest. Even those who are virtuous and willing to to conceive of voting for things that are against their self interest their personal self interest. Do not trust the system they simply do not trust. I would be willing to vote for something that would be against my own personal self interest. I think of myself as a fairly virtuous person was that's true or not who knows you at the judge that. But I think of myself that way. I'm willing to sacrifice. I would be willing to sacrifice so forgive me for pushing myself forward to somebody saying, I appreciate that. Sometimes difficult decision to be made. I don't trust the system to think that a vote that's against myself would in any way work because then I would have to trust the virtue of the politicians I would have to trust that the system is going to be worked out equitably. And all I see on left on any hand is nothing, but favoritism crony capitalism. I have no trust whatsoever. So I you need a virtuous educated. Intelligent electorate that would be willing to vote against their own self interest. Rather than to vote and tribalism ain't going to happen. The the the average American citizen is is is destroyed the the average American citizen cannot pass just the most basic level of civic understanding. It's it's absolutely not going to happen and to get it back lit require. It will require would require generational change. You have to completely transform transform the educational system, which means you have to. I it's impossible. It's absolutely impossible. Next problem. It requires a virtuous and trustworthy political class, which nobody thinks is gonna happen there who is the virtuous and trustworthy politician that you can name to me. Who I think we could probably in discussion we could probably come up with a handful of people maybe five to ten we would agree on from various political persuasions. We would say, okay. This person believes what they say their life is consistent behind it. But you look at almost any person. And there is so much hypocrisy in their approach. You look at almost any politician. And you you don't trust them a bit, you know, that they're liars whether they're on the conservative side, and you've got this this leading former speaker of the house spends years fighting drug legislation and now is a major person involved in a in a drug pro pro marijuana lobbyist organization. Come on. You have a leading conservative figures who say, well, I'm all about I'm all about. Capitalism and free markets, etc. And then they move right out of office. And they move right into lobbying for the real estate industry or the insurance industry, you have leading liberal figures who say that the everybody should pay their fair share. And yet they have multiple houses that are expensive you have leading so called environmental activists who who propose all kinds of of ideas and all kinds of of of ways to trim back. But you go in there living in a mansion that consumes more electricity and more energy than anything else. I mean, or they they don't take public transportation. They they drive a car or they take Uber taxis everywhere instead of actually doing the stuff that they do where is the non hypocrite that is an office where? Again, I think that that the point is I think maybe five maybe there's ten I don't know. I doubt it, but the point is even in difficulty coming up with a few. You cannot tell me that you have a majority of the political class in the United States that aren't thieves and hypocrites just simply saying what they wanna say to get elected. And then the rest of them are stupid. They don't have any context for these these things, and so all of the political classes, basically driven by intelligent policy wonks who try to find a politician who grab onto that. And then sometimes votes get through. But the entire thing is broken when you have thousand page bills that are submitted twenty four hours before vote. Nobody can read them if you try to read them, you can't read them 'cause they're written in legalese, the cannot expect any of these changes to happen realistically. I can't see how anybody could be optimistic about some of this stuff. Happening. I it's sloganeering is about the very best that that can be accomplished by today's political class. So when you when you add those problems to the fracturing tribes in the US American culture to the fracturing people who whether it's political ideology religious ideology. Lifestyle decisions, etc. There is no possibility of bringing this electorate together in a homogeneous way. If there's a solution, the only solution, I could come up with with that could in theory or cat would be an increasing federalism, but the trend is not in the direction of increasing federalism. The the trend is is in the direction of increasing national. Homogeneous? There's no there's no solution. There's no it doesn't. I it's not realistic. So you have a elegant articulate plan like this, which doesn't try to make much progress except to stabilize things in a bad place. And then you expect congress vote and put thirty year caps and actually stick to them, you expect that the government wouldn't find some way to spend and rewards some other class of people when they when there's a budget surplus. It is absolutely completely implausible, it's academically possible. But when compared to real life, it's utterly implausible, in my opinion. Now, let's finish up just by reading this author's defense of his plan. And I wanna Polly I had to get through that section. We're just so deep if you're a policy won't go read it, I'm sorry. You don't have a full description of every single one of those things. But there wouldn't be a single person listening to my voice, if I read through the whole thing it defensive the plant answering conservative critics at first glance, many conservatives will dismiss the proposals in this report has overly timid specifically raising taxes by one point five percent of GDP rather than aggressively lowering anti-poverty and nondefense discretionary spending may be considered a weak kneed surrender to big government. Instead, it is an acknowledgement of political reality. State governors will not accept or absorbed. Medicaid caps that grow faster than the inflation rate. ACA will not likely be replaced with nothing as proved in two thousand seventeen the one point five percent of GDP spent on non-health anti-poverty entitlements, which includes conservative supported policies like the refundable, earned income tax credit and child credit as well as generally untouched. Jabbour programs like child nutrition and SSI congratulate decline as share of the economy, but they will not be eliminated or even have in any foreseeable political future. Other mandatory non-defense discretionary spending is dominated by veterans income and health benefits military and federal pensions, unemployment benefits highways and infrastructure, the national institutes of health homeland security's Asir relief in K through twelve funding. They are here to stay the argument of this blueprint. Simply put is that four point five percent of GDP represents the likely outer bounds of plausible long-term spending cuts relative to the twenty forty eight baseline, and that the voting public would not accept the additional one point five percent of GDP visceral reaction of the safety net and domestic spending just to keep tax increases completely off the table this blueprint essentially freezes federal program spending at the nineteen point five percent of GDP two thousand eighteen to twenty two twenty two. We reform average despite seventy four million Americans retiring to social security and Medicare and despite rising healthcare costs is easy to come up with a conservative dream budget that would show greater spending savings, but even a hypothetical Republican congressional supermajority would find it politically suicidal to fully overhaul social security and Medicare without democratic buyin'. The political model should be the bipartisan nineteen Eighty-three social security reforms not the two thousand ten ACA. Conservatives are in an especially perilous position delay likely guarantees that an eventual budget deal will be increasingly tax heavy each year. Four million more baby boomers, retire while social security and Medicare benefits automatically increase essentially closing the window on reforming those programs. Additionally delays bring permanently higher interest costs on the growing national debt together. These two developments means. The savings needed to stabilize the budget will continue escalating at exactly the time when baby boomer retirements and rising benefits make social security and Medicare more difficult to reform. Consequently, if lawmakers wait another five to ten years, they will likely have missed the window on entitlement reform and tax increases including fifteen to twenty percent VAT, we'll we'll become nearly inevitable this that would probably be enacted at a low one to two percent rate. But like the income tax a century earlier would quickly grow into a massive federal cash machine to finance continued government expansions. It is no longer possible to stabilize the national debt with revenues at seventeen to eighteen percent of GDP. Conservatives can either concede one point five percent of GDP unlimited broad based taxes now and begin concentrating spending reforms on wealthy seniors rather than vulnerable pop. Relations or wait ten years and end up with a European size. Vat, what about answering liberal critics, then many liberals will also dismiss this proposal at first glance Medicare premium support significant income relating of social security and Medicare benefits and state Medicaid per capita caps may be considered non starters, especially paired when paired with just one point five percent of GDP tax increases that are not limited to so called millionaires. However, tax hikes on upper income earners and defense cuts alone cannot close a budget gap. Equal to six percent of GDP by twenty forty eight even raising the top for income tax brackets currently twenty four percent. Thirty two percent. Thirty five percent. Thirty seven percent to thirty percent. Forty percent fifty percent and seventy percent would raise just one point six percent of GDP or lower when deducting lost revenues to macro economic effects while leaving little room to expand. The twelve point four percent social security tax to higher earnings restoring the developed world's highest corporate tax rate would raise at most point seven percent of GDP proposals popular on the left to significantly raise taxes on capital, gains, banks, hedge funds multinational corporations and oil and gas companies would barely register in the long run accounting the unforgiving budget. Math shows. That heading off debt crisis mostly through taxes must require a huge burden on the middle class. Even a fifteen percent VAT, which is anything, but progressive would raise just two point six percent of GDP, nor will other fashionable ideas put the long-term budget on a sustainable path the blueprint already assumes that defense spending eventually falls to two point six percent of GDP for the first time since the nineteen thirties. Single payer healthcare has been scored as adding nearly thirty trillion dollars in federal spending over the decade, and even somehow converting all current family business and state government health savings into a single payer tax to finance the initiative would still merely break even from a budgetary perspective. It would not significantly affect Medicare's projected forty one trillion dollar shortfall significant savings to the federal budget must come from the spending side who should bear the burden presumably protecting low income families, and discretionary social spending our top liberal priorities. Defense spending is already projected to continue following that leaves healthcare inefficiencies and well off seniors to provide the remaining spending savings for liberals who believe that the rich should pay for their fair. Share trimming their large social security benefits and Medicare subsidies accomplishes. The. Same redistribution as raising upper income taxes, but without the economic damage Furthermore, paring back their benefits avoids the intergenerational redistribution of burying today's workers in taxes to finance baby-boomer deaf benefits within a decade, the wealthiest half of seniors. In other words, the wealthiest members of the wealthiest age group will otherwise collect three hundred billion dollars in annual Medicare Part B and D subsidies that were never earned with payroll taxes that would exceed total federal anti-poverty outlays on snap. He IT SSI child nutrition and the child tax credit the Medicare premium support policy proposed here is generously set at the level of funding of the average bid plan rather than the more common. Skip on them. It just give onto the conclusion. If you're interested in liberal arguments, if you're a liberal read those conclusion for decades, economists and policy experts warned that he budgetary in economics. Nami would come when the seventy four million baby boomers retire into social security and Medicare nevertheless, a parade of presidents and congresses did nothing to avert the crisis. To the contrary. Both parties added a new Medicare drug entitlement in two thousand and three after which the Affordable Care Act further expanded federal health obligations for Medicaid and new subsidized health insurance exchanges today. One third of the baby boomers have already retired and another one third will retire over the next six year. Year's annual budget deficits will soon pass one trillion dollars on the way to two trillion dollars and possibly three trillion dollars in ten to fifteen years. Overall, the social security and Medicare systems face an unfathomable one hundred trillion dollar cash deficit over thirty years without reform runaway deficits will all but guarantee a debt crisis that will profoundly damage the country's economic and social order. There is still time to avoid that crisis. But it will require the nation's fractious political leaders to leave their respective comfort zones and compromise and thus ended with the paper. I hope that you made it through and apologies for burying you with data with all the numbers. I know it's hard in audio format. But it's important, and I want you to pay attention to it. And I decided to go ahead and bury you with two hours of data and policy walk discussion. Because I thought it was well done I thought it was fairly balanced. But I thought it did a good job of showing the basic problem. I don't see a solution for the macro economy. I don't see a solution for the macro, you know, budget at cetera to think that and here's just one more common of inserted, of course, a lot of commentary didn't intend to, but I'm talk show host. I can't help it. Just even the closing point. There is still time to avoid that crisis. But it will require the nation's fractious political leaders to leave their respective comfort zones and compromise. The biggest reason why I think that is impossible is from my observation. It seems to me that political leaders have stopped trusting one another. And I think they have good reason to stop trusting one another. If I were in politics, I would have a very hard time believing that I'm negotiating in good faith with another politician. I think there are political leaders who would be willing to negotiate these things if they were in if they believed that the opposition was in good faith. I think most adults especially adults who have a little bit of experience recognized in life. You don't always get what you want. Sometimes you get what you need. You don't always get what you want. And so although I would argue for hardline position all of us, even when we argue for hardline position, we would concede that I can't get there overnight. In fact, it's not good for me to get there. Overnight. Almost any person in almost any issue that you look at who would make a hardline argument would concede that you need time for things to adjust. But how much trust would you have if you were a political leader that your opposition is in good faith. I don't think anybody on any side of the political issue thinks that their opponents are acting in good faith. I've tried to read activists on all sides of the political debate. And what I observe in. My reading is nobody thinks the other side is genuine nobody thinks they're acting in good faith. And I think everybody has substantial evidence that would would say that. They're right. Being of the more conservative, political, bent, the more, freedom oriented, political bent. I would like to believe that my side is better. But I would have to concede that that could just be my own desire to see that confirmed. I think it might be true. But I see enough that I can understand how people who would be night and day different. From me would would say, you're not acting in good faith. I can see that. So who do I have to defend? So if you can't even trust on the simplest of issues that your opponents are going to act in good faith. They're going to speak in good faith. They're going to debate in good faith on the simple issues. How on earth? Do you solve something as complex as this budget nightmare? How do you get there? Now. Hope I'm wrong, a desperately hope I'm wrong because friends we don't want to go through a budget an economic crisis. It is a nightmare. It is a nightmare. We don't wanna do it. It is not if you're a fan if it's your fantasy that you think well, there's gonna be no rule of law without rule of law. Gonna be able to do what I want hunt sense. It is a nightmare. It is an absolute nightmare. We don't want to go through it. It will be pain depression. Dissolution suicide on all hands death on all sides massive decline in lifestyle massive decline in safety massive increase in violence and the risk of violence. It's you don't want to go through. I don't wanna go through it. So I desperately hope I'm wrong. And I'll be if I can find evidence that says that I'm wrong, I will share that with you. But at this point, the data seems pretty clear, and when I add all the little bits that I've inserted here into what I've already shared with you. I don't see how a political solution is possible. I do not see it. Hope I'm wrong again. I don't see it which means it's time for you and me to prepare. Here's what I do observe, although the national and international solution to me seem impossible the personal solutions are not. You may not be able to do anything about the level of debt in the United States of America. But you can do something about your family's level of debt. You may not be able to do anything about the impact of taxes on the on the broad citizenry. But you can do a massive change on your level of taxes. You may not be able to do anything at all about trying to develop a virtuous citizenry of of knowledgeable people who understand civics, and who are willing to vote for the things that are in the best interest of their fellow citizens. But you can do something about your own positions, your family, you may not be able to do anything at all about the department of education either doubling it if that's what you wanna do or eliminating it. If that's what you wanna do what you can do something about your family's department of education. And so as with many things while broad-based collective is solution seem impossible individual solutions are very very possible. There is time for you to establish the necessary individual solutions there is time for you to leave the United States. There is time for you to get out of debt. There's time for you to educate your children. There is time for you to get in better shape. There is time for you to be in a situation where you're wealthy enough that you never need a dime from social security, and that you don't need anything from Medicare. I wanna be a solutions oriented guy. I don't see any solutions in this world of political collectivist statist nonsense. All I see is reaping the problems of the past. And that's basically what happens. Why are we in this nightmare? Well, because past politicians got elected by promising that they could give away other people's money. That's how it happened. Why the the the bulk of this is not due to the fact that the federal government builds roads. The most con-, you know, the the most being more libertarian perspective that thing that libertarians had laugh at every time said you lim-limited government who's going to build the roads. The roads aren't the problem and the answers people going to build a road because the government and build the roads all they do is take from one person to pay to a company that builds wrote. Anyway, the roads are easy, but you can keep the road department. I don't know any met at any libertarians who are that upset about driving on roads. Which you can't keep is this nightmare. You can't keep social security. You can't keep Medicare. You can't keep Medicaid. You can't keep a defense spending. That spends this is right. What government spends more money on the military, then then the next what twenty-five countries combined something like that for check me on that that I shouldn't something like that. You can't keep a global empire. You can't keep it all propped up with fake money. Borrowed from other people. You cannot do it. You can't destroy the families that form the book of society. You can't destroy the children by sticking them into mandatory educational compulsory schooling systems that are designed to destroy them. You can't destroy the family unit. The hold of a society together, you cannot destroy those things expected to go on. So keep the roads, I'll pay taxes for roads. But the rest of this. We're getting our Justice hurts, but you can't unravel. Eighty years of of ninety years of of of this progressive est utopia and expect it not to be painful hits gonna stink. It's gonna be painful. For. I forget why started that ranchers simply that that we're going to pay for our sins. You always pay for sins. You cannot steal and then create a whole class of voters whose entire political ideology is stealing against the people that don't deserve it and who has nothing related to their own virtue. Everybody wants to steal from everyone else. Well, that doesn't work. I thank God, he set up a system in which morality and virtue rule now you can reject that all day long. But when you build an empire based on theft at some point in time that empire will come crashing down. It will. So we're going to see my opinion. So the point is I see zero political solutions. I feel like these problems are comprehensive. Although I concede that it's possible that solutions could happen. I don't see the necessary preconditions for those solutions. For all the reasons. Previously discussed no virtuous electorate. No knowledgeable electorate, November chews politicians a system that rewards crony capitalism theft corruption rather than than than virtue, it's impossible. So I'm done. I'm not gonna waste my time. I will watch it over the coming years and see. And if something happens I will be optimistic, and I hope I am wrong. Because I don't want us all to suffer. But in the meantime, I see solutions individual galore. Guess what? If you don't want to be wrapped up in this nightmare. You don't have to. In one of the big things that I said as new course that I've just launched. Why did I tell you guys belong in the United States? Simplest way to remove yourself from all this just leave because while the United States is destroying itself their places in the world that are not and you can put together solutions. And I don't think that's solution for everyone. There are a lot of things that are wonderful about the United States in many ways. It's the best place to be right now in the world. But don't don't fall prey to this idea. That is just always going to be that way. It ain't we'll talk more about that. I hope that this has been helpful to you. I know that it's long if you find an error in my thinking, if you can present to me an argument that would indicate that I'm wrong. I would ask you to do. So it has taken me years to come to this perspective. I don't expect it to you. If you if this is your first time, I don't expect you to believe it all of a sudden, I would expect, but it would encourage you just argue with it argue with me. If you find something where you think I'm wrong, then go ahead. Just don't fall prey to the same old. No better word than tropes. Same old lies the same old myths that make you feel good don't think if you're a liberal if you just tax the rich that everything will will will will fix it. Don't think if you're a conservative that we'd just rework welfare that everything will be better. It ain't you got big systemic problems. So, but if you do see a flaw in my thinking, please show me because I don't want to be a I don't want to be a fear mongering. I wanna be accurate, but by going through this. I hope I presented to you enough data to just help you to start to see where. It's it's sobering. Reality don't be depressed. Just start making your plans and workout individual plans. Those plans are probably not that different than what you already face. Don't be poor be stable be. We'll talk about the solutions another time. Thank you for listening. If you would like my initial salvo in this. Foray. I would invite you to come by and sign up for my no scores radical personal finance dot com. Click on store and there you'll see my newest course, available which is called how to survive and thrived during the coming economic crisis. I'm right now doing a prelaunch sale on that a preorder preorder sale. That course will go live on March. Fifteen in the meantime, if you sign up between now and March fifteen twenty nineteen you can save twenty five percent by using the discount code prelaunch discount. Twenty five percent discount while using that coupon code prelaunch discount. I would invite you to come by. And by that course, it will help you go a long way towards giving you some practical and realistic solutions that I've come up with for my family towards solving some of these problems and giving you options in the future. No matter what the future holds. I believe there are some good leverage points, or you can take certain actions that are inexpensive not difficult and yet can make a massive difference now in benefit you. You if everything goes well, and yet be of massive benefit if nothing goes well at all. So you're you're it's a win win either way. And that's the stuff that I'm focused on because there are a lot of those things that you can do that are benefit either way. So come on by radical personal finance dot com. Sign up for I knew as course, how to survive and thrive during the coming economic crisis and save twenty five percent using the code prelaunch discount. That's just me helping to have some money coming in while I finish up the last bit of the of the course, and it will help you by giving you a discount. It helps you to be patient with me while you wait for March. Fifteen thank you for listening. And I'll be back with you very soon.
Interest Rates: July Data Adds Confusion to Fed-Watching
"Here the extraordinary secrets of how to thrive in disrupted world the old rules of management are not ready correct anymore so what works making wise pivot pivot to the future. Will I am and Omar Abashed. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Here's your money briefing. Im J._R.. Waylon at the Wall Street Journal in New York ask five different people with the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates in late July and you're likely to get five five different answers. A Journal market report will be by just a couple of moments and explain how July economic readouts have thrust a lot of confusion into fed watching. I Some Money Market News. You should know the federal minimum wage would more than double the fifteen dollars by twenty twenty-five under a bill passed by the House on Thursday but even though the bill which was sponsored by Democrat Bobby Scott Virginia was a compromise among several sectors of the party. It's unlikely to see a vote in the Senate and the White House has signals. That's opposition as well. The Congressional Budget Office determined that raising the federal wage Florida fifteen dollars at the potential to lift one point three million people out of poverty and increase pay for seventeen million workers but the study also showed showed such an increase could lead to one point three million people losing their jobs and research from the consulting firm CAP defy says on the first day of Amazon Prime Day on July fifteenth. There were eighteen times more searches for the phrase. Canceling Amazon prime than the worthy previous day and one of the biggest online shopping days of the year cap defy says searches for Ebay best buy target and Walmart rose two hundred fifty five percents and adobe analytics six has run the numbers the past several years turns out the two day Prime Day event is the third and fourth time outside the holiday shopping season where e-commerce sales exceeded two billion dollars the other two were Labor Day two thousand eighteen and this year's Memorial Day holiday here the extraordinary secrets of how to thrive in a disrupted world. The old rules of management are not ready correct anymore so what works making a wise proven pivoted the future will I am and Omar Abba Gosh subscribe wherever you get your podcasts. Let's talk about knowns and unknowns. What's known is that the Federal Reserve is debating whether to announce alson interest rate reduction at its meeting at the end of July? What's unknown is how deep rate cut will come from the Fed and Wall Street Journal markets reporter at Connie Otani is here? She says that July economic data is raising all sorts of questions so economy many on Wall Street say that a rate cut larger than twenty five basis points is unlikely because of how well the stock market's been doing July yeah. It's hard for people to imagine that stocks that have returned to record territory. Territory <hes> an economic data's while pointing to some resilience in the economy that that sets up a condition where the Fed has to cut rates <hes> and specifically cut rates by point five percentage points <hes> as its first move. I mean remember this is going to be the first rate cut since the financial crisis so while there are a lot of analysts investors who believe you know maybe they're going to sort of do an insurance cut and basically take rates down by point two five percentage points just to sort of safeguard against a slowing of the economy. It's really hard for for a lot of folks to imagine that they're going to do something more drastic than that. What else has come out in the data this month? That makes the measure of a rate decrease hard to predict we started the month with really strong figures years for the job market and I was reassuring because the month before we had seen <hes> weaker-than-expected hiring and that had sort of introduced some worries to some folks that maybe the weakness that we were seeing in sectors like manufacturing was starting to trickle elsewhere in the the economy but <hes> the labor market report that we received was very much sort of <hes> helped put those worries to bed and then we got stronger than expected pickup and inflation and also in retail sales so those three things sort of helped a lot of investors. I feel that the economy didn't slowdown as as much as maybe some had feared in the second quarter you know there are a lot of people on Wall Street who know the Fed like the back of their hand and they know how to measure with the Fed might do based on trends based on precedent and whatever. But everyone has a different opinion and I think that's what's so interesting about the Fed I mean it has sort of been when the biggest themes driving the markets this year the fact that we've seen this giant pivot among global central banks from an environment where they were either raising rates or holding rates steady to now <hes> widespread lowering of rates and we already have started to see central banks in other countries <hes> cut rates sort of in anticipation of what the Fed is likely to do at the end of the month also the bond market could here in the U._S. has given a pretty clear signal that a fifty basis point reduction might be unrealistic. We we did see bond yields start to pick up a little bit after falling below two percent in <hes> in June and that's quite interesting because generally the story of this year in the bond market has been <hes> falling bond yields <hes> or sorry bond yields have been falling as investors have been pricing in the Fed lowering rates to respond to a slowing economy <hes> so the fact that we're seeing a bit of reversal of that trend in the last couple of weeks suggests that actually the data point to some resilience that investors might have been missing. It seems that Wall Street has its heart set on a rate reduction of some capacity and if the Fed ed decides the stand Pat. It seems like that could seriously rattle investors. We're not even seeing markets price in that possibility <hes> interestingly enough. I mean if you look at Federal Funds Futures <hes> The bets are pretty much either on a twenty twenty five basis point cut or fifty basis point cut and there's actually a zero percent chance priced in right now that the feds stands put so <hes> that would that would definitely be a big shock to markets and we could see some volatility there if that were the case.
A better approach to medical records?
"So back in October of last year I got on a plane to Taiwan. This this is Dylan Scott a healthcare reporter at vox. I traveled from the capital Taipei to the east coast of the island. We flew over lots and lots of Tall Green Mountains to get there and I visited a little health clinic that serves the people who live in those mountains with my producer Bird Pinkerton. So we have this lovely around with with little aquarium. Okay and why were you there. We wanted to see this amazing electronic system that Taiwan is put in place. It's it's an electronic health record that's based in the cloud every citizen gets this little medical. Id Card that has a chip in it and they can bring that card to a big gospel in the city or two tiny rural clinic like this one and their doctor can insert it into a machine and they can pull up their entire healthcare history super super super easily. There's everything there the drugs they're allergic to the vaccines. They've already had their last. Six healthcare visits and this saves time time. It saves filling out paperwork. And it's helped Taiwan revolutionize their healthcare. I'm Ariel Jim. Ross and this is reset today today on the show. Dylan's Scott tells me about Taiwan's electronic medical records. We'll see how their high tech system streamlines care for patients and doctors and will ask why doesn't the US have a system like this. So Dylan take me back act to this rural clinic. You visited. Yeah at this clinic. We got to see how these cards make a doctor's interaction with their patients. Go much more seamlessly so so I met a doctor their doctor who has a shock of pink care sort of like an all black outfit black high heels Aboriginal women came men and pretty much. The first thing she did was handed her medical. Id Card to her doctor. So they've inserted the national health insurance card and pulled up this woman's medical records. She's checking her Medical Records on the Maddie cloud system. She can know that where she had the prescribed medicine previously and the doctor. One of the first things that she asked was whether the woman had been taking diabetes Beatty's medication like she was supposed to and the woman said she had not teasing her looks like and the doctor turn lately chastised her and then told her to make sure that she took the diabetes medication as soon as she got home but that kind of very basic care management like one of the things. That's very easy to do to try to keep health care. Costs down is just making sure patients take their medication. Like they're supposed to that kind of management is a lot easier when a doctor can get this. Holistic picture of a person's medical history in their medical needs by just inserting card into a reader does having this kind of a healthcare system. One where you have these medical local. ID cards those that lead to better outcomes for patients than you might see in the US. So that's a complicated question always is what I would say. Is the Congressional Budget Office and this is the tangent you probably expect but the Congressional Budget Office put together a report last year. We're looking at a bunch of international healthcare systems and sort of all the various avenues to single pair and one thing they've repeatedly singled out about Taiwan was was it's IT infrastructure and it's a resulting administrative simplicity so even if it's hard to say administrative simplicity we're talking the healthcare here great which is not not something we we do not associate simplicity with healthcare in the United States. Definitely do not but there are like researchers have estimated tomato that Taiwan only spends about one percent of its funding for national health insurance on administrative work the rest of it goes to you know like medical claims an actual healthcare and so. I think that that is a testament to the simplicity that this medical record system allows okay so clearly. This has a bunch of advantages for patients. But I am wondering we're talking about data here we're talking about sort of the consolidation of all. These medical records is the government using this data as well. Yes so Doctors and hospitals have to upload the their insurance claims every twenty four hours under this system and so the government is basics. You say every twenty four hours twenty four hours. There's more or less you know. And so the government is basically getting a real time snapshot of how much it's spending on healthcare and not only that but like getting a picture of particular people who are using a lot of healthcare and in an ideal world you know that would allow you to stage interventions or better coordinate eight across different healthcare providers because obviously especially for heavy utilize irs who have complex chronic conditions. They don't just go to one doctor. They have a primary care doctor during a specialist and they might end up at a hospital and so because they're they're getting this constant update of medical use Taiwan. They're able to get a much clearer picture. Picture of where their healthcare needs are and things that they can target to try to improve things even further as a person who used to do quite a bit of reporting on healthcare. It it strikes me that you could use a system like this to detect adverse health outcomes from from certain drugs or even do early detection for outbreaks of disease like Corona virus. Is that the case. Yes so Taiwan has built a quite sophisticated infectious disease surveillance network and the electronic medical records through through the national health. Insurance Program are a big part of that so they were on top of identifying one of the first week of cases to be imported into their country. A cording to Taiwan Center for Disease Control. The woman showed no symptoms when she passed through customs. Because the big thing about Zico was it caused microcephaly now. microcephaly awfully is very serious condition. Which means the babies have small brains develop as they should do and so they realize like wait a minute we we don't have we don't know what the baseline is sort of what's normal? What kind of naturally occurs and so they were able to go back into the electronic medical record system and and see like all right so for the few years before now how often those kind of cases popped up and that gave them away to track all right? Now that we know Zeke is is in the country will be able to keep an eye on whether Moore cases of Microcephaly are popping up in whether we need therefore stage interventions to try to get ahead of it. The thing that comes to mind for me is I know that those studies were also conducted in the US. They were also conducted in parts of South America as well. Hello but it took a lot of time right gathering that information takes time but what you're saying is basically like they already had all of this could just kind of like perform a search and have have those numbers Papa right the tech person. That's your job. Yeah it seems to be an simple as like all right. We need to go back and you know run this diagnostic code and then we'll have a snapshot of like yeah our historical incidents of Microcephaly. And then we'll be able to use that information going forward while we're now trying to deal with Sika After the break. Why doesn't the US have medical cards like this? And more on the downsides of having everyone's health data stored in the same place Okay so this all sounds great these medical ID card words sound super convenient and honestly way better than what we have in the US. So why don't we have this year. Well as far as I can tell there are two big reasons. It's okay break him down for me. The first reason is that our electronic medical records system is kind of broken so a decade ago the Obama Administration was looking at a world where not very many doctors or hospitals all use electronic medical records. We start art two thousand and nine in the midst of a crisis unlike any we have seen in our lifetime and so in the stimulus package that passed in two thousand nine the American recovery and reinvestment plan which included all kinds of provisions to both prop up the economy that will immediately jump start jobs creation but also to kind of encourage American tack to to catch up or accelerate healthcare and a new infrastructure. That are necessary to keep a strong and competitive in the twenty first century Tra They included this pot of money. Almost thirty billion dollars that encouraged healthcare providers to setup electronic medical records systems to improve the quality of our healthcare while lowering its cost. We will make the immediate investments necessary to ensure that within five years. All of America's medical records are computerized and and by and large. It was a success. We have seen a dramatic increase in the number of doctors and hospitals that have electronic tronc medical records now Compared to ten years ago and so that has been a lot of progress but what the administration wasn't prepared for was how will to get electronic medical records from different healthcare providers to talk to each other and so while over the last ten years. We've seen a lot more. Healthcare providers adopt these kinds of systems. They haven't gotten very good at allowing their different systems to talk to each other. So it's kind of like your hospital is using android messaging apps and your clinic is using the iphones. I message APP right. It's it's great that they're both using these kinds of apps and everything is digitized. But it's also bad bad because the clinic APPs and the hospital APPs can't talk to each other yes or the the analogue version of this metaphor is. It's a bunch of walled gardens where you can't see through to the other side and so that's kind of where we're stuck now. There's some data that I saw recently. That showed only like a third of hospitals in the United States dates are able to share electronic medical records with another healthcare provider. Another health bird that yeah it was under forty percent. Okay so I want to imagine in this better say I go to a hospital and I get a cat scan because my doctor thinks I need one alright. Why don't we just pop you into the scanner here and then I go to my regular doctor to get my results? Explain to me high area. Let's pull up. That scan. Did what happens to the actual information. That's gathered in that scan. How does it get to my doctor right? So you're hospital where you got your C. T. Scans. They're using one system to store all of their records and they'll put the skin results in there. But then if you go to your doctor. Her clinic might be on a totally different system. And those two systems are able to talk to each other right and so you've got nurses or healthcare staff staff. Can you call the hospital and ask them to send us those records for Ariel the two print stuff out or even like you might have to have your hospital. Facts information over to to your primary care doctor so that she's able to CG scans right. The final stand of the fax machine is in the American healthcare system. It's the one place where it still has a lot of utility because we've done such a bad job of making an electronic medical records interoperable. Sorry Ariel can you come back next week. The nurses at the hospital still time to facts results. So you know you could imagine another world where the hospital is on the same system as your primary America. Dr Upload Your C. T. Scan into the cloud let's say and then your primary care doctor. They've got access to the same cloud they can download the results results and they've got them in their fingertips. We don't have to get fax machines involved at all already have what I need. Let's talk about your results. But that's not the world we're living in right now. Why didn't we think that maybe would want all these systems to talk to each other? It's a great question. I think it's partly just a reflection of the very fractured healthcare system system. That we already have and I think that to be honest. It kind of seems like you know. The Obama Administration saw as far as it would be good to invest invest a lot of money into trying to get healthcare providers to set up these systems. They did not get to the second step of like. How do we get these systems to work together? So most of these electro medical records are run by private companies or it's private providers setting up their own record system and so providers don't necessarily have uh a lot of incentive to work together because if suddenly you have your latronic medical record and you can take it to any healthcare provider then it suddenly becomes a lot. I easy to go to a different hospital or go to a different doctor. And so these walls protect the providers because it keeps patients in their system because they have their records they have their medical history. And if you WANNA go outside of that system it's not very easy because these electronic medical records are able talk to each other. There are just a lot of hurdles getting in the way of that free flow of information that I think we all agree would be ideal for better healthcare again. Like we see in Taiwan okay. So essentially reason one that we don't have a seamless easy experience like the one in Taiwan is that unless one electronic medical record takes over everything in the. US WE'RE GONNA keep having all these different systems that don't talk to each other you got. So what's reason to that. We don't have a system like the one in Taiwan so the second reason I think is privacy. People have a lot in America have have a lot of hangups about just handing over their personal information to the government especially something as intimate as personal as their their medical history. Your health information your rights whether your health information is stored on paper or electronically you have the right to keep it private. We obviously have a complex flex set of rules. There's a whole law. The Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act Governs Privacy for patients. Medical information requires that certain in healthcare providers. Keep your electronic health records private and secure so that's just presents US significant practical barriers to enacting kind of national national traffic medical record system. And I do think a piece of that is just cultural. Norms like people in Taiwan are. Certainly they're worried about their privacy to the country has a whole set of laws about personal data privacy but you know the government undertook like an education campaign to explain to people why they were creating electronic medical records. What kind of privacy safeguards in place? Because they wanted people to understand the utility of this system and to trust the system and you can imagine in America just given our sort of individual streaked recent history with the NSA Faisal whatever you know that you could see where that would be a pretty significant ask of the American people. Aldous suddenly trust the government to oversee this system that would have all of their personal medical information. Does it actually reminds me of an episode of reset. We did a few months ago about Google. Getting into health and gaining access to people's medical records for a specific set of hospitals I talked to Christina far. NBC for that episode. They were looking to build some kind of tool that could such through. A medical record would really easily Google's goals sounded a lot like the goals of the Taiwanese system. I also had that they were looking at. Could they do some kind of the detection of disease but people were justifiably freaked out. I think the big fairs that Google on more and more about our health conditions and one piece where I would call them out just the consent. People got tripped up because patients hadn't been told doctors hadn't been told it's felt like a violation relation of somebody's privacy. Even if by the letter of the law. It wasn't necessarily and so I think that is a great snapshot of why Americans might be so apprehensive about one big electronic medical records system to be clear though presumably Americans would be aware of I assistant if suddenly the government decided to get in on this right that would be a key difference and yeah when you think about when you think about Taiwan like their medical records are basically soclean a public. Good like it's part of this public program. It's helping to serve the sort of public function. And I think an important distinction from what Google is doing is that is a private private company. That's basically trying to get an advantage over. Its competitors like apple and Microsoft two are also trying to make progress in the health space and the fact that the patients weren't aware of the program at all definitely set up a lot of red flags. Okay so I have one final question for you. Is anybody trying to make this better. So yes the trump administration has actually taken a big interest in trying to make electronic medical records more cooperative and more easily sharable across different systems. They actually put out a rule in twenty nineteen that would force healthcare providers and health insurers to provide medical records to patients. It's at basically no cost. And in a standardized format we're going to pursue making sure that patients have their data no matter where they go. Seema Verma runs the Center for Medicare Karen Medicaid Services. She talked about this on. CNBC in two thousand eighteen. What we're trying to do is empower the patient with their healthcare records with quality information? And so they they definitely see that kind of transparency as their guiding light with their healthcare agenda and I think it shows that this is a an issue that isn't necessarily very partisan send like everybody sees the advantages of setting up a system where it's easier to share medical records across the whole healthcare system. The question is whether you know. Providers fighters in pairs can get on board and actually execute it and overcome some of the practical implementation challenges. That we've been talking about Dylan. Scott is healthcare reporter at VOX DOT COM by the way he just wrote a whole series of stories about healthcare. All around the world and we'll link to those in our show notes. We will also link to the fantastic episode on Taiwanese healthcare that Dylan did for the impact. podcast all the reporting when he did for that series was done with a grant from the Commonwealth Fund. This is reset reset. And I'm Jim Russ but you don't have to say it that way. You can find me on twitter. I'm at gator. S and you can also reach the reset team by tailing reset at. Vox Dot Com. We publish episodes three times a week on Tuesdays Thursdays and Sundays. So if you haven't already subscribe to the pot you can find us on apple podcasts. Stitcher or in your favorite podcast APP. And if you like what you hear rate and review us on Apple podcasts. It really helps us the bird thinker. Ten we'll read Schuyler. Swenson produced the show. Our engineer is Eric Gomez. Our intern is Daniel Marcus. Golda Arthur Arthur is our executive producer. Liz Kelly Nelson is the editorial director of Vox podcasts. The mysterious brake master cylinder composed our theme music. Nick and reset is produced in association with Stitcher. And we're part of the VOX media podcast network will be back on Tuesday later nerds.
Potholes can tell you a lot about inequality
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by indeed. Are you hiring with indeed? You can post job in minutes. Set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist qualified candidates using an online dashboard. Get started today and indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. Airlines on the program today, potholes two and a bunch of non transportation related economic news, as well from American public media. This is marketplace. In Los Angeles. I'm KAI Ryssdal. It is Wednesday today, the fifteenth day of mega does always to have your long everybody, China and the United States are the world's two biggest economies. That is fact, number one China in the United States are at a very macro policy level and at a very businesses just trying to sell their stuff level as well having some substantive disagreements on trade. That is fact number two. Number three. Is that it's entirely possible that consumers in both of those commies are getting sick and tired of fact, number two case in point, retail sales data released in both countries today in China? The slowest growth in retail in sixteen years, still growing have to say just slower here retail was down as well not a lot, but a sign that consumers are a little squeamish, which is interesting because there have been some fairly high readings on the consumer confidence meter of late. Marketplace's Mitchell Hartman. Explains. What's going on? I let's just stipulate. US consumers do have a lot going for them right now. Ben hers on is an economist at I h s market, healthy gains in jobs, increase of average hourly earnings. So income looks pretty good and consumers are feeling more upbeat than they were around the beginning of the year after the stock market tanked and the government shutdown. But there are also some new drags on consumer sentiment like higher gas prices when consumer see gasoline prices rising pretty sharply. It is hit two confidence after you fill up your tank. There's less leftover for other spending consumers aren't in retreat. They just appear a little more cautious about the future take Forty-one-year-old GR fielding. He's a civil engineer his wife's a nurse. They live with their two young children near Aspen, Colorado. He says locally things are going, great home prices have been soaring having our economy. We've decided to make a number of large purchases and double down on our house making. Improvements. But he says now they're pretty much done with the big spending. They'll hunker down pay off debt and get ready for the next shoe to drop in the economy is just been going so well for so long. Intuition, tells me that something has to give at some point. And there are some clouds on the horizon says Scott Anderson chief economist at Bank of the west, we are seeing continue slowing in the global economy. We've got uncertainties coming from trade wars, and terrorists, and he says with loan delinquencies rising on Car Loans, and credit cards. There are increasing signs, lower and middle income consumers are strapped for cash. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. Some indeterminate part of the market's gains today about which more later, of course, we're driven my news mid morning. If east coast on that the White House is thinking about the link tariffs on European cars that the president has been thinking out loud, about imposing that news. Intern got us thinking about a guy we know who is indirectly involved in the American car industry. David Brit is on the Spartanburg County council in South Carolina, twenty five years ago, he was one of the people who convinced BMW to open a huge factory there we met him a couple of three years ago. And I've talked to him a couple of times since including today. David, welcome back to the program. Good to talk to you, too. Last time we had gone mister Brit you were so that was back in October, and you were a little concern, I think it's fair to say about the impact of the president's tariffs on, on the national economy. But also there in Spartanburg how you feeling now. I'm feeling very sick fact almost hate to get your phone calls because, you know, when we were talking, it's not good news for the most part. The president's you know, still tariffs, aluminum tariffs, have had a dramatic effect on our growth and our economic development expansions. In fact, it was white hot for two years. And he's poured cold water on this development. Gimme. Some specifics can you can you have like project numbers or a sense of? Can you quantify that like from two thousand twelve to two thousand fifteen we averaged one hundred twenty one hundred and thirty projects that we're actively looking at here in Spartanburg County like in twenty seventeen? We had right at nine hundred million dollars invested in Spartanburg County, which translated to just under two thousand new jobs last year. We're successful with eight hundred million we landed eighteen projects twenty one hundred jobs going into nineteen. This is where where the rubber hits the road as it were. We had eighty one projects that we were looking at. And as of today, we have thirty active projects as of may fifteenth. So what are people telling you? I mean when you stop and visit for, you know, an ice, tea or eliminate like we did that day that I was down there when it was about a million degrees. What are people telling you the people who are running these businesses that flow from, you know, the BMW plant, and all those plants that you helped bring their, the businesses saying, we cannot make decisions. And, you know, we have two hundred eleven international companies here in just tons of local US companies here. All of them are saying, we can't afford the risk of making the investment in an expansion or new facility based on this president's uncertainty in in his game of almost Russian roulette. None of us would play Russian roulette. I wrote the president last year. I invited me to come to Spartanburg and he wrote me back in October. Obviously didn't listen to my, my ladder, because he didn't take me. On the offer in thanked me for my support, but anyhow, everybody and again, look at the numbers look at where BMW the last time BMW made an investment in plant Spartanburg, was two years ago. Right. And this is we should say for the record the biggest BMW factory in the world producing four hundred and fifty thousand cars, a year, employees, eleven thousand employees, solo hearing smart Berg aside from the, the form letter that you got back from the White House. Clearly, the president seems willing to let these tariffs. Whatever tariffs were talking about stick around for a little while the question to you, as a guy involved in economic development at the county level is how much time do you have to let these tariffs it around. It. The tariffs are just drawing the oxygen out of our, our economy, both in Berg in South Carolina in the southeast, and it's not going to be that seven eight hundred dollars a year increase their gums is going to be is going to be devastating is happening right now. It's time to stop it. David Brit from the Spartanburg County council. He chairs the economic development committee, there has for quite a long time. David, thanks very much for your time. I appreciate it. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks. You have a good day, Wall Street as I said took great solace in the prospect of automobile tariffs, being, maybe depending on how the president's feeling not a right now thing we will have the details when we do the numbers. We took a little field trip a couple of weeks ago out to the airport. Really? I wasn't actually going anywhere. It's more like I was meeting somebody who was coming here at bastion, the CEO of delta arriving at LAX from Atlanta, we had him on about three years ago, just after he'd gotten the job delta was in the middle of a bit of turbulence, shall we say today, it's steadier flying more lucrative as well. Delta reported record revenue, the first quarter of this year, so out, we went to the airport stuck to Ed Baxter, the CEO of the company fixed taking the time. Well, thanks for calling out here. Let's talk about first of all where we are. Tell me where we are. We are right here in terminals, two and three the new LAX that we are building. Got an opportunity to almost double the size of our footprint here in L A. Once we get done over the next several years, why do you need more footprint? I mean, that's gonna sound like a basic question, but well, first of all, our, our infrastructure, as we all know our airports in the US are native multi generational built improve security, flows and improve technology and on top of that. If Delta's drawing your we've got a got a great group of people here are operations at doubled over the last five years, and we need more room. Do do you think commercial aviation the way we're doing it today is sustainable, not in the climate sense. Right. I mean, yes, there's emissions in jets and all that. But in the in the sheer business model sense because you got crowd. You've got infrastructure problems, you got security problems. It can we keep doing this this way? Absolutely. No. I think I think when you think about the reason why people are traveling is they're, they're more adventures. So we're building bigger airplanes. Building bigger airports because people want to go. I talked to a lot of CEO's. I don't quote a lot of CEO's. But one that I do trot out pretty frequently as a line, you gave me in two thousand sixteen when we met in Atlanta, right that any company that's not growing is in slow motion liquidation. First of all, he's still believe I still believe I say you have to grow you. You gotta take scale you got to provide new opportunities for your people and your customers talk to me about global travel for a second. I was in Europe not too long ago. You see, delta planes, all over the place over there, Asia. Those were a lot of the global growth is aviation. How much do you concentrate on Asia, and that's out of the market. We're less concentrated in Asia than here closer to home. So the US in Europe are probably eighty percent of our revenue base. Asia's along ways away at it's more difficult to fly to it's more expensive, there's, there's a lot of competition that's owned by government sources. So the government if used support going into some of the Asian airlines make it a little more difficult for an American company to compete, but. That said, we're, we're president. We've got a partner in China with China Eastern, where the hubs in both Shanghai and Beijing. So you think about the world population, that's the part of the world that needs to grow quicker than anyone. India is another place that we're launching direct service to by the end of this year. We today don't fly direct India. You mentioned partners. So I will, I'll bring this up in and note that you're not a Boeing seven thirty-seven max customer. But we're gonna fly Boeing aircraft we do. Dennis Muilenburg, as you know, is, is having a tough time now trying to figure all that out. And, and what to do about that. First of all, has he called. You have you spoken. I know Dennis. Well, I sent him a note of encouragement, a few weeks ago and told him to stick in the. Any concerns about Boeing's a partner for Delta Airlines. I don't I don't the bones a great, but it's great American company, we fly more Boeing planes than any other manufacturer. We've always flown more Boeing and we hope to fly more Boeing going forward with delta doing show will. I'm sure you've seen the stories in the paper, the last couple of days about corporate taxes, and, and how much tax companies are paying. Delta is not paying a lot. Is that right? Do you think absolutely ill? We're following the Taxco delta, as you recall, lost a lot of money, we lost almost twenty billion dollars. You'll post nine eleven we went through some very difficult economies over the last twenty years. And so what we're doing is we're able to offset the losses of those years against the prophets of today. We have probably only have about another year or so left in those losses. And then at that point, then we should start being cash taxpayer once again, but, you know, these are losses hard, earn losses by I would say that would that we that we utilize our people had. Real pain attached to them. I am proud that. We've got the best profit sharing plan in corporate America for our employees. They get fifteen percent of the profits of the company one point three billion dollars. We paid last year. So, you know, I think we're doing our show silica. How much trouble are you in one point three billion dollars back to employees? Looks great. And I appreciate that. How much trouble are you in though, in those coming years, when you're not going to be able to share one point three billion dollars? It's going to be two hundred million six hundred million. Well, I think we're going to continue to look to grow over Bono's. We've had been over a billion dollars five years in a row. So there's, there's a resiliency, you know, we're, we're, we're a story that people don't pay enough attention to any they, they throw the airlines into a basket and they think that they're just a hot mess at times. Right. They have some good boom bust cycle. We're breaking that cycle or creating a new trend for the industry, and I see no reason why we should stop that. I want to go back for a second to the to the bit about if you're not growing your dying base. The thing you shared with me in two thousand sixteen. This is an incredibly competitive business. And last time, we spoke you were leaning into the competition part you were like I want to grow. I want to be number one. I wanted to do better than anybody else. Do you still feel that way? Absolutely. You know, we're an industry that's geared towards growth. It's a high capital business. We've got a lot invested in this. We've got eighty thousand employees and that opportunity to grow and explore. His is fundamental to our voted to gain, better leverage on our scale. So, yes, I think growth is, is really at the core of what it takes to be a great company in the airline space, but also as a as a fairly capital intensive business as well at thanks a lot. Thanks. Thanks, take care. Safe travels. At a couple of things here, first of all, after we did that interview some anti union flyers and pamphlets that delta had distributed wound up on social media, and in the way things, do these days, they kind of blew up we as delta to respond. Here's some of what they sent us the direct relationship we have with our employees is at the very core of our strong culture, and it has enabled continuous investments in delta, people, the statement goes on to say, don't the has shared many communications, which on the whole make clear that deciding whether or not to unionize should not be taken lightly. We've got the whole statement on our website. If you're curious, we've also got the whole interview I did with Ed bastion, including the company's plans to expand at airports like LAX, and where he sees the delta brand going on our corner office podcast. Check that out also because you can never have enough. If you are planning a flight, you know, picking the right ticket can be a headache. Right. You go. The low cost airline may be basic economy. We did the legwork for you. How much route on a low cost airline might run you compared to? To a legacy carrier. You can check it out at marketplace dot org. Coming up. My whole is split half. That's how bad they are. Split completely enhanced. How one city is fixing its roads cross-checking potholes with social equity, but I sure why not do the numbers. Now, does is up one hundred and fifteen points today. Four tenths percent closed at twenty five thousand six forty eight to the blue chips. The NASDAQ advanced eighty seven points about one point one percent seventy eight to twenty two the S and P five hundred found sixteen points, half a percent, twenty eight and fifty there as we talked about a European art auto auto auto tariffs. Guy are, you know, conceivably on hold Ford up one point one percent on the new, General Motors gained eight tenths of one percent. Macys dot rose by as much as four percent on positive first-quarter results. But fell back after warning it could see an impact from the US China trade dispute wherever you heard that for Macy's closed down. Four tenths of one percent day. Mcdonald's says it's going to let individual franchises decide which breakfast foods to serve all day long. It's an effort in theory to simplify things for stores and news. Wait times for customers investors lukewarm McDonald's gain about a half percent today, bonds rose yield on the tenure note fell to two point three seven percents listening to marketplace. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by golden Sachs for insights from leading, thinkers, Goldman Sachs on the state of markets industries, and the global economy listened to their podcast exchanges at Goldman Sachs, you'll hear discussions on a variety of topics from a variety of sectors with far reaching implications including global, and regional growth forecasts. Finding value in today's invest in climate the impact of technology on markets and much more. That's exchanges at Goldman Sachs available on apple podcasts. Spotify Stitcher soundcloud, and Google play and at GS dot com slash podcast. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by with Sabi hot cloud storage, thinking about moving your data storage to the cloud was obvious enterprise class, cloud storage, at one fifth the price of Amazon S three and up to six times faster with no hidden fees for egress or API. Requests was obvious low cost high speed fully secure storage blows away the competition, including Google and Microsoft disruption starts here. Do the math for yourself and start a free trial. I was Sabi dot com. This is marketplace. I'm KAI Ryssdal. Alice Rivlin as we mentioned at the end of the program yesterday has died at the age of eighty eight probably best known among policy wonks anyway, as the founding director of the Congressional Budget Office, and I use walks there with the most complimentary attitude possible because under Rivlin the CBO established its reputation for nonpartisan analysis of proposed legislation. Here's a Bill, how much is it going to cost how much revenue is it going to bring in, and how is that going to affect the economy? Marketplace's Tracey Samuelson takes a look at the creation of the CBO and Rivlin's legacy there. It was nineteen seventy four. A Democratic Congress was in the midst of budget battles with Republican president, Richard Nixon, who was also in the midst of Watergate, the Nixon administration had a new practice of refusing to spend money that congress had appropriated in authorized for particular purposes. Sarah bender at George Washington University says congress decided it needed its own. Source of budget information, it had been getting that information from the executive branch, the office of management and budget won't Senator says, hey, what do you think happens if we pass our Bill? I don't know let's call up being asked. We'll can we trust them? That was the problem. Douglas holtz. Aken is president of the American action form. And a former CBO director, he says it was riven who really coated independence into agencies DNA job in created by Democrats. She was a democrat, and she did nothing that would make them happy and thereby establishing that it was the job of the CPO to tell people unpleasant truths regardless of the circumstances. It was a role she defended throughout her career, Maive, most important contribution. I think she has testifying before congress last year was insisting that CBO not make policy recommendations objective, information and analysis. Yes costs for policy alternatives to, but it would not presume to tell congress what to do. And that's. The CBO maintain. It's nonpartisan reputation says Holtz Aken in the CBO from the sheer power of being very good at what it does has acquired its influence, but he says the CBO is often the bearer of bad news if it's not being attacked a likely isn't doing its job. I'm Tracey Samuelson for marketplace. So here's a question for the city planners among you who also happen to be social scientists? What is the best way to fix the local roads, not technically? I mean strategically right. If you're a city, what do you pay? I the busiest streets or the ones in the worship. The city of Oakland California is trying to tackle its backlog of bad roads. And last week, the city council voted to use revenues from new voter-approved taxes, one hundred million dollars worth to repair roads in a racially and economically equitable way. Marketplace's Ben Bradford books at how potholes and equity are related. Oakland's potholes. Are notorious among the city's residents like, Tracy green. Some of big enough that if rain, Monday, the great nephew swimming, and potholes Chan toria Thompson. Drove over one last week while taking her daughter to preschool split in half. That's how bad they are. Split completely enhanced. In the fruitvale neighborhood of, of forty fourth avenue. Looks like it survived. The climactic fight a superhero film cars wind around six inch deep craters is very connect to me when it comes to potholes itsel D, as Romo moved to fruitvale thirteen years ago for Mexico and in the whole time that I've lived in the US, like they've never fake fifth street, d is Romo works for local community group, the unity council, she says in low income neighborhoods like fruitvale, bad roads are more than inconvenience, there a symbol is a constant reminder, of course, you know, this is a poor neighborhood, like where low priority. When it comes to fix this opens new paving plan tries to address this disparity by prioritizing road, repairs in minority, and low income neighborhoods. It's one piece of the puzzle that can be used to fight historical injustice. Oakland transportation director Ryan russillo acknowledges, that's eight departure from how cities typically plan. The base rational way of doing, it would be purely on asset condition the roads that are most deteriorated and fix them and also factor in the importance of that road. Instead fruitvale and east Oakland will receive almost half the new money set aside for local street. Paving despite having only about a third of the roads needing repair. That's not going over. Well, in some wealthier communities, north hills resident Hillary. Conlon drives me around the winding roads of her neighborhood. They're not great Collins says she supports investing in lower income areas, but her community needs a larger share of the funding for public safety reasons. There has been a fire in the Oakland Hills, every twenty years, so we're do now, we wanna make sure that we can get out, and that our roads are going to suffice over in affluent Montclair homeowner. Michael Tig also notes, a financial concern, we're paying for new because it's a parcel tax, those who own property are the ones that are paying for it. So how do cities balance these competing concerns to make a Butler is a transportation planner who directs equity and inclusion at tool design, she says, reysen income should be factored into the equation? We know there are certain communities that have historically been discriminated against have historically been left out of resources. And so true equity means the folks who have historically had the lease get the most. On a practical level. She says bad roads also hurt households with tight budgets more. While other people might say, oh, I got a flat, not a big deal. That is a huge deal. That might be the difference between feeding your kids dinner, triple as found the average pothole related repair costs over three hundred dollars back in fruitvale looking over pockmarked forty four th avenue, itsel D as Romo hopes better roads could also inspire more community engagement, if states like this gift, figs, people in the neighborhood will say, oh, like we're not forgotten, like we're not ignored. In other words, a little bit of good road can go a long way in Oakland. I'm Ben Bradford for marketplace. Final note on the way out today about which I'm not really sure how I feel her. She's said today on Twitter that it's changing its conic chocolate bar, instead of just Hershey's imprinted on the bar and plain block letters like it ought to be this summer. The company is releasing the emoji bar, which is just like it sounds from the tweet, you heart emojis now you can taste them. And guess what they taste like delicious chocolate know her she's no they don't. All right. We gotta go down dust up one hundred and fifteen points today. Four tenths percent. The NASDAQ up eighty seven points about one point one percent less than five hundred sixteen points. The couch cushions about a half percent or media production team includes Sarah, gear, Jake Gorski, drew Justa, Jeff Peters, Dan Powell, Daniel Ramirez, Charlton Thorpe, and Ben tolliday. I'm KAI Ryssdal. We will see tomorrow. This is APN.
Trump Responds to Violent Protests With New Measures
"Social distancing slows the spread of corona virus, so stay a minimum of six feet away from others and stay home. If you can more info at Corona Virus Dot, Gov, let's all do our part because we're all. Hashtag alone together brought to you by the Ad Council. Authorities disperse peaceful demonstrators in front of the White House. New Controversy and criticism as president, trump makes additional moves to maintain order I am mobilising all available federal resources civilian-military will explain what that means, plus an influential GDP forecast says America's road back from covid nineteen may be a long one. Indeed, it really expected will take the best part of a decade food, the economy to recover fully from the effects of the pandemic. It's Tuesday June second. I'm Mark Garrison with the Wall Street Journal and this is what's news. The protests following George Floyd's death or opening a nationwide discussion over policing as we discussed last night. Washington has been the site of some of the most intense demonstrations as crowds gather in front of the White, house police have worked quiet the streets in the evening. Authorities dispersed a peaceful crowd of demonstrators just ahead of president trump's remarks in the Rose Garden the sound of riot suppression rounds echoed across the lawn. We will come to the details of what he said later, but I was getting a lot of attention this morning. After his remarks, security personnel cleared away a group of protesters, so the president could walk out to the Saint John's Episcopal church near the White House. He posed for photographs, holding a Bible President Trump's critics say he required riot suppression tactics to disperse a peaceful crowd just for a photo op. Mariann Edgar Budde is the Bishop of the episcopal diocese of Washington. She spoke to CNN. Let me be clear on the president. Just use a Bible. Most sacred texts, today or Christian tradition. One of the churches of my diocese without permission as a backdrop for a message at critical to the teachings of Jesus and everything that our churches stand for. And to do so he sang should be used tear gas by police officers in riot gear to clear. The church got I am outraged. The president has said broadly that a strong response is needed, and we'll go into detail on his latest remarks and moves in just a little bit. We're learning more about the death that sparked the demonstrations as to new autopsies conclude George Floyd's death in police custody was a homicide journal reporter Aaron. elworthy gives an update on the situation on the ground in Minneapolis where crowns recently gathered as his brother terrence. Floyd paid tribute at a makeshift. which is now overflowing with flowers and candles? Things started to calm down after police here got more aggressive about enforcing curfew, and so there was a night where they came out much more forcefully and clashed with protesters, and since then they have again come out in force. Many major cities are enforcing curfews as police work to ballots access for peaceful protesters with the need to keep people and Property Safe New York where some looters have tried to take advantage of the unrest to break into stores and eleven pm. Curfew into effect there last night Joe Biden visited a predominantly black church in his hometown of Wilmington Delaware yesterday where he stressed the need for presidential leadership, and emphasize the impact of the corona virus on communities of Color band-aid ripped off by the. President. Nobody can pretend. Any longer. What this is all about. Nobody could pretend. Who has been? Harry is on their back. Manar. In just a moment we will return to the White House and President Trump's latest response to the waves of protest. A. President, trump is putting new measures in place to control unrest speaking at the White House yesterday I spoke to the death that sparked nationwide protests. All Americans were rightly sickened. And revolted by the brutal death of George Floyd. My administration is fully committed. That for Georgia and his family justice will be served. He will not have died in vain. The president quickly turned to unveiling new policies I am mobilising all available federal resources, civilian and military. To Stop the rioting and looting. To end the destruction and arson, and to protect the rights of law, abiding Americans including. Your Second Amendment Rights Journal White House. Correspondent Andrew Rasushi as on the story. He spoke with our Charlie Turner about the key changes. The president revealed. Well two things first. He said that he was ordering. Thousands of armed soldiers. Military personnel in law enforcement officials to Washington DC to quell the violent demonstrations. That have broken out at night here and he's also said that he will deploy the military to other cities, if necessary if governors. In his words don't defend the life and property of their residents, so there's two separate actions that he's talking about what sort of authority will invoke well. He has authority under the Insurrection Act of eighteen o seven, which basically allows him to deploy active duty military as opposed to national, guard. Troops searched two separate things. In response to civil unrest, so he could in theory used that authority. There are some legal experts that say that he would actually he can't use it on his own that he would actually need. The governor's themselves to request that he make that decision, so it will certainly be a decision. That would be challenged if he were to do it was the president responding more to what was happening around the country, or to what was happening in front of the white. House I think it's both according to advisors. They'll be spoken to. He was very much affected by what happened in Washington over the last few days. It actually required him on Friday night to go down into the White House bunker on secret service orders. Washington, like other cities has seen looting, spray, painting, and some violence from police toward protesters, so it's A. It's a difficult situation here in Washington as it is around the country. Talk about the president's video conference with the nation's governors. Yes he he spoke with the country's governors, and his message to them was basically. You need to take action to stop. These protests are not not to stop the protest themselves, but to stop the violent. Elements of these protests and ended. quickly. He told he told the governor's that they needed quote dominate. On the streets any he actually said that. Most of them are quote week. Saying that they're not taking this seriously enough and not doing enough to stop the violence that spreading in parts of the country, and at least a couple of the governor's democratic governors hit back at his comments. Yeah, I mean they countered that you know most of these protests, which is true, you know our peaceful, and there are just pockets of these protests that turned violent and resulted in looting and other sort of. Things that we've seen. And and and and and they basically said that the president isn't helping with his own rhetoric rhetoric, which has been quite divisive, both on twitter and in his public statements. Wall Street Journal White House reporter Andrew Rasushi thanks a lot Andrew thank you. After a quick break a closer look at the economic impact of the pandemic and key forecast predicting the recovery could take nearly a decade. Social distancing slows the spread of corona virus. So if you have a fever, dry cough and shortness of breath, colleagues, healthcare provider before going in more info at Corona Virus Dot Gov. Let's all do our part because we're all Hashtag alone together brought to you by the Ad Council. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office is adding new detail to its closely predictions on the overall economic impact of the coronavirus in a letter top lawmakers collectively. It's a picture of a slow were longer recovery than many may have hoped market. Senator Quentin Web explains so the Congressional Budget Office has explained that it really expect it will take the best of decade for the economy to recover fully from the effects of the pandemic, and that's notwithstanding of course for exceptional level of stimulus. That's already been pumped into the economy. Recall it three point three trillion dollars, stimulus has already been enacted but the CBO says that between now and twenty thirty there will be something like seven point nine trillion dollars cumulative head in real terms to the economy, which is about a kind of percents, downgrade across all of that time period, and it will only be by about twenty thirty that. That, the economy will be back to sort of where it was before in the CBS forecast. So, what does that tell you well? It tells you really that you know. The skies that this pandemic is going to leave on. The economy will be deep and long lasting. It will take a long time for the economic effects of this crisis to wear off. Related to that question of the timing of a comeback, giant of retail is making a move that signals corporate America is also questioning the speed of recovery. starbucks is cutting employee hours further at US stores. It's encouraging workers to take unpaid leave until September as it keeps most of its dining rooms closed. This falls earlier restrictions that trimmed hours and limited service to pick up and delivery. Summer internships can be career launchpads for students, but the pandemic opportunities either cancelled or radically redesigned for our world of forced working from home. If you are currently doing a virtual internship or managing one, there's an article on wsj.com. You'll find useful among the tips. Invest the time to train and explain the mechanics of working remotely and remember. It's a two way street of learning tech. Savvy young people know a few things. Older managers don't also find ways other. Other than video calls to keep people to date on the big picture something as simple as a weekly email newsletter can go a long way and letting folks know what's going on without jamming in yet. Another video call and that is what's news for this morning. If you like our show, please rate and review. US wherever you get your podcast. We are back with another updated episode this evening I'm Mark Garrison with Wall Street Journal. Thanks for listening.
NPR News: 01-29-2019 12AM ET
"NPR podcasts are now. Available on every platform checkout all our shows at NPR dot org slash podcasts. That's NPR dot org slash podcasts. Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Shay Stevens. The Trump administration is introducing its toughest sanctions so far against Venezuela. In an effort to force President Nicolas Maduro out of office. NPR's Philip Reeve says the move has sparked an angry response from the Douro. These sanctions hit Modesto where it hurts. They target his government's revenues from oil sales to the US oil is as Wailers biggest source of income. Venezuela's economy is already collapsing. The sanctions are another move in US led efforts to pressure Modesto to leave and allow opposition leader while Guido to take control as interim president and hold new elections with doodo has responded with defiance during an emotional speech on TV he described the sanctions as criminal thing. Clued freezing US based assets of Venezuela's state run oil company. Madonna says he's launching international legal proceedings to stop this. But it breathes NPR news could Acas. The Congressional Budget Office has the partial government shutdown reduced federal spending by three billion dollars. NPR's? Jim zarroli reports that it also cut into US economic growth. The report says that as a result of the five week shutdown about eighteen billion dollars in federal government spending did not take place. Most of that money will be spent now that the government is reopened still the impact is enough to shave as much as four tenths of a percentage point off the annual US growth rate for the first quarter of the year. The report doesn't attempt to quantify the many secondary effects of the shutdown such as the impact on contractors doing business with the government. It says considerable uncertainty exists about the shutdowns full costs. Jim zarroli, NPR news, New York. The Justice department has unsealed criminal charges against Chinese tech. Giant wall way it's financial chief mum on Joe and several subsidiaries prosecutors allege the company stole trade secrets misled banks about its business and violated US sanctions. The charges were announced ahead of crucial trade talks between the US and China this week in Washington. The national weather service has an Arctic blast is causing bitter cold in much of the nation. The coldest temperatures in recent memory are expected Wednesday, especially from the upper mid west to the Great Lakes. No Hieaux valley regions as following blizzard like conditions in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois snow and bitter cold hit Monday in Denver where resonant Brooke white tells K M G H TV she had to bundle up to take her dog for a walk. Have love underrun. Obviously, I've got nice Cama pants that keep me warm, and then this coat is like designed for negative twenty degrees. National weather service forecaster say wind chills in northern Illinois. Could fall to a dangerous minus fifty five degrees on Wednesday. Governor j b brisker says it'll be so cold in parts of the state that frostbite could occur within a matter of minutes. You're listening to NPR news. Five houston. Police. Officers are injured two critically after an encounter with drug suspects in the city southeast for the officers were shot and a fifth suffered a knee injury. While serving a search warrant at a home where police suspected heroin was being sold. Two suspects were killed in a shootout. Hundreds of public debates are taking place all over France as that country looks for way out of a crisis. Brought on by the yellow vest pro movement. NPR's Eleanor Beardsley reports that one debate in Paris was so popular that there wasn't enough room for everyone who wanted to attend at least a hundred people waiting in line to enter the town hall in Paris his fifties. These had to be turned away because the debate rooms were filled to capacity. Many like retired math teacher justly Marlboro are counting on the two months of nationwide debates to calm tensions. We have problems to solve. And and I really believe we have to solve them without all this violence that we have seen. You know this bust weeks? And I'm so glad now that we can have these debates just in order to to explain to each other. You know, what what we feel president Emmanuel Macron has promised to take people's opinions and ideas into account when the debates end in mid March Eleanor Beardsley NPR news Paris rescue workers are still searching through mud and debris in south eastern. Brazil nearly four days after the collapse of a dam that held back waste from an iron ore mine. Hundreds of people are missing from the disaster which killed at least sixty people on Wall Street stocks close lower on concerns about trade. The Dow fell two hundred eight points. This is NPR news.
NPR News: 09-03-2020 5AM ET
"Support for NPR and the following message come from American Jewish World Service supporting human rights, advocates worldwide as their respond to covid nineteen and defend democracies learn more at Aj ws. Dot Org. Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Dave Mattingly Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is traveling to Kenosha Wisconsin today a city that's seen days of protests over the police shooting of a twenty nine year old black man Biden is expected to meet with the family of Jacob Blake who was seriously wounded two days after president trump was in Kenosha the president spoke to law enforcement. And some local officials and business owners during his visit. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is advising states. Corona virus vaccine will likely be ready for distribution by November, I in a letter to governors the CDC's says states will receive permit applications from the mckesson Corporation in the near future hospitals and local health departments are to be among the first to receive a vaccine. The Congressional Budget Office is projecting the federal budget deficit to hit a record high this year amid the coronavirus pandemic the CBO estimates the deficit will reach three point three trillion dollars. That's more than triple last year shortfall to largely to Congress spending trillions of dollars on a series of economic packages, Congressional Democrats, and the White House remain at odds over another corona virus relief bill a leaked document from the US census. Bureau warns the Trump Administration's recent decision to shorten the window. To complete the twenty twenty headcount risks, serious errors. Here's NPR's Hansie long the internal Census Bureau document obtained by the House oversight. Committee. Details the bureau's own analysis of how the twenty twenty cents is could be affected by push to deliver the first set of results to president trump by year's end and gives a beer roughly three months to process all the information document warns that serious errors discovered in the data may not be fixed because the beers staff won't have enough time. To federal lawsuits are racing to get court rulings that would force spirit extended schedule. But in a court filing justice attorneys say the Bureau has already started winding down senses operations on Zealand NPR News New York the University of South Carolina is reporting some of the highest numbers of New Corona Virus Infections of any college in the Nation Victoria Hansen with South Carolina public radio reports the university it has reported nearly twelve hundred krona virus infections with roughly one hundred new cases each. Day since classes began two weeks ago, the infection rate last week was nearly twenty eight percent. The school says it has cracked down on off campus parties. Fifteenth students have input on interim suspension and nine Greek houses are under quarantine after residents tested positive so far this school says there are no plans to cancel in person classes. The University of thirty five thousand students is the largest in the state. For NPR, news I'm Victoria Hanson in South Carolina. This is NPR news from Washington. Baseball Hall of Famer Tom Seaver has died today seventy, five, the twelve time all star died of complications from dementia and covid nineteen NPR's Tom Goldman says Sieber won a world series with New York in nineteen, sixty, nine as part of the Miracle Mets, his twenty year hall of fame career began in nineteen, sixty seven with prophetic words from legendary player. Hank. Aaron. When seaver introduced himself at that year's All Star Game Erin said Kid I know who you are before your career is over I. Guarantee You everyone in the stadium will to. It became true in all Major League stadiums a smooth controlled and brainy pitcher seaver became known as Tom Terrific in New York where he helped lead the miracle mets to a title and just their eighth year in the majors he also played in. Cincinnati. CHICAGO WITH THE WHITE SOX and Boston Tom. Goldman NPR. News power is out and trees down across parts of south. Korea today where a typhoon is bringing strong winds, torrential rains and flooding state TV says power is out to nearly three hundred thousand homes along South Korea's southern and eastern coastlines. Japan's coastguard is searching for a livestock shape believed to have capsized in rough seas caused by the storm. The ship was carrying forty two crew members and thousands of cows and went down off a southern Japanese island after issuing a distress call. Stock Markets in Asia closed mixed today Wall Street futures are lower this morning dow futures are down three points s and P futures down five. I'm Dave, mattingly NPR news in Washington.
Morning Brief for Tuesday, January 29th
"I'm Anne Marie for totally in the newsroom at the Wall Street Journal the Federal Reserve kicks off its two day policy meeting on Tuesday. The central Bank is taking a more patient approach to rate hikes this year. The Wall Street Journal's Nick Tim rose says the feds shrinking bond portfolio could be a topic of discussion at this week's meeting. And there are plenty of earnings to look out for on Tuesday, including reports from Pfizer Harley Davidson Lockheed Martin Verizon and apple house speaker Nancy Pelosi and President Trump have agreed on a new date for his state of the union address, Tuesday, February fifth the two had squabbled publicly about the date of the speech last week during the partial government shutdown and speaking of the shutdown the Congressional Budget Office estimates the longest in US history will cost the government three billion dollars in reduced output this year that puts the rise in GDP in the first quarter at a two point one percent annual rate down from a previously estimated two point five percent. For more details head to wsJcom or the WSJ app.
Trump cools on a broader immigration deal to keep government open past Feb. 15
"The daily two oh two was sponsored by T. Rowe price. Check out the confident wallet a personal finance podcast series by T. Rowe price and the Washington Post brain studio. Good morning. I'm James home from the Washington Post, and this is the daily to two for Tuesday, January twenty nine. In today's news. The acting attorney general says Bob Vollers investigation is close to being completed the US government ups the ante against China with some big indictments, and John Bolton's notepad has everyone talking. But first the big idea. President Trump has accepted an invitation from Nancy Pelosi to reschedule his state of the union address for February fifth that's one week from today. It had been postponed because of the shutdown while federal employees tried to get the government back up to speed yesterday. The possibility of a second shutdown in just three weeks hangs over every office. The Congressional Budget Office estimated yesterday that the one that just ended cost the American economy at least three billion dollars. Senator David Perdue, the Republican from Georgia said Trump hopes to reach a narrow deal to get money for the border wall rather than a broader immigration agreement before government funding again lapses on February fifteenth Purdue ate lunch privately with the president at the White House on Sunday yesterday. He told the posts sung men Kim that Trump sounded fully prepared to act on his own should a new committee. That's been set up on Capitol Hill struggle to come up with an agreement on the wall that satisfies him likely. What that? Means is declaring a national emergency to unilaterally begin building the wall without congressional approval or preparations William bar Trump's nominee for attorney general refused to answer yesterday. Whether or not he will defend Trump in court, if the president goes the national emergency route in written responses to senators considering his confirmation he said, he's not studied the issue closely enough to comment, but added that he'll ensure his advice to Trump is quote consistent with any applicable law. Now, Trump's twenty twenty campaign manager Brad par scale is strongly encouraging the president to stand by his demand for a border wall. Even if it means shutting down the government, again CNN reports that the manager has presented the president with internal polling data that shows voters in key swing congressional districts believe a wall or offenses needed in that Trump can't look weak. And here's a telling taste of the mindset inside the White House. Trump's top domestic policy adviser. Stephen Miller said, quote, I would be happy if not a single refugee foot ever again touched American soil. That's according to former Trump White House communications aid cliff SIMS his new book team vipers which comes out today. Sims writes that anytime a refugee or an immigrant committed a gruesome crime Miller would walk over to the White House press office to demand that press releases be issued about the case sim says Miller made the comment about refugees during a conversation. The two had about immigration now Miller did not respond to the AP's requests for comment and White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders did not deny that he said it. Meanwhile, the Trump winery in Virginia has once again submitted a request to hire foreign guest workers businesses owned by or bearing the name of Trump have now sought to hire more than six. Six hundred foreign guest workers since the president launched his campaign in twenty fifteen according to a tally by BuzzFeed, many have worked at mar-a-lago and the president's various golf clubs. It's yet another case of do as I say not as I do. And that's the big idea. Here are three other headlines that should be on your radar number. One acting attorney general Matt Whitaker said special counsel. Bob Muller's investigation is quote, close to being completed what occurs remarks though, brief represent the most extensive comments on the subject by any senior law enforcement official in months, but a lawyer representing a former employee of Roger stone said Moeller still wants his client's testimony that indicates the special counsel may be planning another indictment of stone or other people who've been in sneered in his investigation. Justice department guidelines say a grand jury can only hear evidence after a person is indicted, if the grand jury continues to work on new charge. Either against that person or additional plan defendants in bar, the G nominee once again, pointedly refused to provide a guaranteed of the Senate that he will publicly release Muller's report if he's confirmed bar stressed that his goal will be to provide as much transparency as he can consistent with the law. But then he said that the law and Justice department regulations say you shouldn't release information about people who aren't being indicted yesterday Senator dick Blumenthal from Connecticut Democrat and Chuck Grassley from Iowa a Republican introduced a Bill to guarantee that every special counsel report would be released directly to congress and the public effectively taking out the attorney general as the middleman number two the Justice department charged the Chinese telecommunications giant walkway with fraud a thirteen count indictment filed a New York City details allegations of Bank in wire fraud. The company is also charged with. Relating US sanctions on Iran and conspiring to obstruct Justice related to the investigation. Canadian officials had arrested the CFO mung one zoo on a US Warren in December and on Monday evening. The Canadian Justice department confirmed it's received a formal extradition request from the United States. So that she can stand trial. Beijing has been pressuring candidate to release mung including by arresting Canadian citizens in that country, the indictments threaten to further strain relations between Washington and Beijing just as officials from both countries prepare for talks later this week aimed at ending the month-long economic impasse that has contributed to huge swings in the stock market and uncertainty for business. Although Trump is suggested he was willing to help secure monks release if China met his demands for a new trade deal Justice and Commerce Department officials insist that monks criminal case is a separate matter. Number three. The Trump administration announced new sanctions against Venezuela's oil industry in an effort to force President Nicolas Maduro out of power White House national security adviser, John Bolton said during a White House briefing yesterday that any attempt to harm remaining US diplomats in Venezuela or violence against the newly recognized president one Guido will be met with quote significant response, he declined to define what that means. Pentagon officials indicated they have no orders to prepare for military action in Venezuela. But by starving Madero of a critical source of cash. The Trump administration has dramatically ratcheting up the pressure on that government. Bolton was holding a notepad during his on camera briefing in which she had scrawled quote five thousand troops to Colombia that raised more questions about possible military intervention in South America. If five thousand troops are indeed sent to Colombia as part of some effort. To contain Venezuela. That would Mark a major escalation of American involvement in South America, though. It's unclear what exactly the servicemembers roles would be asked. What to make of all this White House official emailed. Just six words all options are on the table. And that's the daily to two for Tuesday, January twenty ninth. Thanks for listening. I'm James Hellman. I'll talk to you tomorrow. Memento?
AP Headline News Jan 28 2019 14:00 (EST)
"Stacy's asia. After years of enroll dope within an inch of my life. I'm free receipts of a mind of their own go, paperless and manager travel expenses online with my taxi business, make the smarter choice of my Tuksy dot com. AP radio news. I'm Ed Donahue, people in parts of the midwest thought they were getting off easy this winter until now. There is no on the ground in. It's bitterly cold Estevan Garza lives in Milwaukee wins if wound Takaona few weeks ago, and it was when the winter was going incredibly mile and everything was fine. And then we got back, and it was just snow. Snow? Snow snow. So it's been tough a lot of snow. Some places are dealing with blizzard like conditions about a thousand flights were cancelled in Chicago state government has been canceled today in Michigan. But forecasters warn the most dangerous weather is yet to come frigid low temperatures that the midwest hasn't seen in a quarter century a tornado and pounding rain smashed into the eastern part of Cuba's capital Vanna overnight, at least three people were killed the AP's Michael Weinstein is in Havana, a lot of the housing stock is in bad condition, and partly for that that reason we saw a lot of partial and complete building collapses where the tornado struck a government meteorologist in Cuba says the tornado that struck a van. Who was category f three with wins between one hundred fifty five and one hundred ninety nine miles per hour. President Trump said the odds congressional negotiators will craft a deal to end his border wall standoff with congress are less than fifty fifty. That's what he told the Wall Street Journal after the end of the partial government shutdown. The deadline is now February fifteenth to get a deal done on border security on the wall to avoid another shutdown. A jury was seated in Kentucky in a civil lawsuit that Republican Senator rand Paul brought against the neighbor who broke his ribs with a hard tackle. While Paul was doing yard work the actor who played the notorious drug Lord known as El Chapo on a next series as made a cameo appearances, a spectator in the kingpin's trial in New York. Alejandro Etta showed up early today to get a good seat. This is AP radio news. The partial government shutdown is having an impact on government finances. The Congressional Budget Office says to deficit will jump to eight hundred ninety seven billion dollars this year an increase of nearly one hundred twenty billion from last year, the CBO predicts economic growth will slow to about two and a quarter percent down from just over three percent last year as the effects of President Trump's tax cut on business investment begin to drop off. The CBO also says the thirty five day partial government shutdown will have a modest negative impact on the economy. Mike Kemp in Washington after years of battling the confederate flag. A South Carolina restaurant owner is giving up. Tommy Darris says he's selling his distal river creamery because he's been unable to remove the flag phone by the sons of confederate veterans on a tiny piece of property in front of his business. Darris I tried to remove the flag. The sun's group said it would have him arrested for trespassing at Donahue, AP radio news.