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Bloomberg Radio New York

06:17 min | 1 year ago

"coast africa" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Flash Thank you so much Charlie pellet This is balance of power coming from the Bloomberg interactive broker studio I'm David Weston The United States and its NATO allies have spent the week focused on Russia and Ukraine and as Secretary of State blinken prepares to meet with his Russian counterpart it looks like next week will be much of the same But many see U.S. relations with China as the more important priority for years to come raising the question whether Ukraine while important could in the end be something of a distraction One of those raising the question is elbridge Colby He is principal at the marathon initiative and author of the strategy of denial American defense in the age of great power conflict Mister Colby served as a deputy assistant Secretary of Defense under president Trump So thank you so much mister Colby for joining us You've written a terrific piece here on this subject Give us your concern and why we can't as I think the spokesperson for The Pentagon said walk and chew gum at the same time Great Well great to be on with you David and thanks for the invitation I think that the reasons are ultimately pretty straightforward which is that the future of the world is going to be set in Asia It's going to be the world's largest market and China is by far the world's most important other power of the United States itself If you just look at GDP And China is pursuing a dominant position over Asia And that's where Americans core interest lie Europe is important but it's secondary And the fundamental reality here David is that resources are scarce So former national security adviser John Bolton wrote something of a response to my piece saying that our resources are not zero sum while military forces can't be in the same place at the same time And political capital of scarce and economic investments are scarce And we already know we're behind the curve in Asia which is the critical theater So that's where we got to put our efforts and we've got to move to a different approach in Europe which relies more on the Europeans to take the lead in checking Russian ambitions It doesn't mean we withdraw our abandoned Europe but we take a much sort of more recessed role How many resources are we putting into Europe in response to the Ukraine crisis right now Because it seemed to be only a very few thousand troops isn't it that it actually moved anywhere Sure Well I mean for one thing it's immense amount of political capitals just on the first level But let's just talk about the military for a second Several thousand more U.S. troops have been deployed into Europe and there is a discussion potentially of a lot more And first and foremost those forces would never be engaged against Russia without air and naval cover and support So there's an enormous tail when people talk about 3000 troops being deployed That's not really the number in terms of a military planning context And it's also setting expectations David We need to be moving in the opposite direction where the Europeans are taking more of a leading role and we're taking more of a supporting role so that we can focus on Asia but we're actually doing the opposite We're continuing to train the Europeans that we will always be there which is has led us to the situation particularly with Germany where they really just don't do what they're supposed to do And they don't do their obligate don't fulfill their obligations And so this is an unsustainable situation And this is a very important time in which to make the tough choices that we have neglected to make And there's always this sense that I can't be that bad and so forth Well look the critical credible military officers and experts are saying that we could lose the war over Taiwan in the coming years And the fact is is that what happens over Taiwan is far more important than what happens in Ukraine And so we need to act accordingly So let's talk about that specifically Obviously nobody wants China to do something in Taiwan But Taiwan's president Xi has made it very clear that he intends it depends on what the time period is to make sure Taiwan is part of China If China were to decide to go after Taiwan we don't have the capability Do we really keep them for doing it Militarily We do have the capability if we put our mind and resolve to it Look the Chinese have enormous advantages They're the first time that there's another superpower of equivalent economic size in the international system for well over a century So they have immense advantages themselves but look it's very difficult to launch an amphibious invasion into the teeth of a prepared and capable defense And so what we need to do at the end of the day is defeat an invasion And that can be done even if you're a face other disadvantages We just need to focus and that's the problem and to your point David you know people say oh Xi Jinping's not going to do her to read It's going to do it I don't know what he's going to do But what I am confident is that if Xi Jinping sees that we are getting distracted and we are using our scarce military resources somewhere else and they're being tied down He's much more likely to move and we're much more likely to lose And the situation will not end with Taiwan The situation will continue because China's ambitions are to dominate Asia and from that position in a sense dominate the world One of the things that I have not been paying attention to but now I've read some about is the extent to which China is really getting a naval facilities around the world I mean much more extensive naval facilities around the world What is that about Well it's really remarkable I mean the military development of military forces David is one of the most concrete and credible indicators of a state's future behavior because they take a long time to build their plan in advance They're very expensive They're very top down and what the Chinese are telling us both in the kind of military they're developing nuclear powered submarines that can go farther Aircraft carriers that can go farther and impose their will on others Bases farther afield so significant when the Chinese open to base in Djibouti on the east coast Africa But now we're seeing evidence they're going to want to build a base in Equatorial Guinea on the west on the Atlantic coast of Africa Yes So I mean we are going to be dealing with the China that is essentially roughly as powerful as we are And yet we're acting in Europe like yeah no it's 1999 no problem We'll be able to handle China Well I think that's hubristic and arrogant and I think we are risking getting a serious comeuppance if we continue this way So given what you said I'm just going to assume that you think that is it called alcas the Australian UK U.S. working together on a sub for the Australia You think is a good thing Oh yeah Yeah it's not a magic bullet I mean we're already allies with those two countries But it's the kind of model a kind of model that will be useful going forward where we help the Australians develop nuclear powered submarines which would be able to go farther from Australia shores and help us say in the Taiwan fight So that's very good also brings the Brits in in ways that make sense What else makes sense The President Biden has made a priority out of the quad which is understand it's not supposed to be military right Yeah look the quad is a formal thing I wouldn't focus so much on.