25 Burst results for "Cigna Global"

"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:48 min | 18 hrs ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And Katie what's a Friday without a look at Bloomberg pursuits This week's section takes a look at travel through the lens of our 5 senses Well first up let's get to the market drivers report And with us now in the Bloomberg interactive broker studios is creedy Gupta markets correspondent for Bloomberg Also joining us via phone from a White Plains New York is Vince Cigna ralli He's global macro strategist I want to start with you just to give us the lay of the land because we're off of lows We are off of Lowe's and just a quick market check here for the folks who are listening in the S&P 500 down 1.6% It was down just shy of 2% and it did hit that bear market It dropped a little bit further to literally a technical level 38 15 and did bounce back but didn't bounce back enough to very safely call it a rally just paired some of the losses The story here is trifold I guess a triple There are multiple takes here There's the fundamental drivers where you have an inflationary environment You have this idea of cashing out because of this shear wall of worry recession volatility all that jazz Then you have the idea of valuations and margins And that's really where you see Walmart target A lot of these big tech names that have kind of I want to say sidestepped a lot of the selling you've seen in the broader benchmark because of how successful they were in their supply chain due diligence et cetera that part plus the valuations is also driving the trade And then you just have sheer liquidity I mean look at the volatility and then look at the volume For the people that are saying perhaps you're not getting your spreads that's why options expiration today is so important because you're getting the spread $1.9 trillion It's huge And that's why today is so important because for the people who haven't been able to get the liquidity or the spreads that they want today's the day where they get that So it kind of makes sense And I think a lot of people were expecting this much of selling or at least a furious reaction in one direction or the other The question though is what happens that last 30 minutes of trading because that's when that window of liquidity opens up again Chills and I will say the point on volume is so important because I think you made this point yesterday the day before Volume really hasn't been here in this sell off So going to be the fascinating clothes But Vince I'm so happy to have you on the phone You know in your experience as a trader you watch all the different asset classes And there's a lot of volatility across all of them It feels like what do you have your eye on Well I mean watching the level pretty had mentioned that 38 15 and of course the 20% retracement We went just below that Fibonacci retrace mix of 38 ten on the S&P and a couple of traders telling me that there was a significant buy program covering shorts down there but it's really not listed at that aggressively off the lows We're only up about 20 to S&P points off the low So I think there's still going to be another opportunity to test that downside Again the interesting thing I find is what they're selling in that Y consumer discretionary is being sold off so aggressively If you think there's a recession coming on traditionally people hide in consumer discretionary stocks Smokes and cokes as we say on Wall Street And maybe it's because it's been the darling this year and that's why it's being sold off so aggressively but it doesn't jibe with what's going on If you if you think there's a recession you shouldn't be building in so much of an aggressive weight height cycle for the fed You shouldn't be selling consumer discretionary It all just doesn't really add up and it makes me wonder if we might be maybe nearing more of a bottom than anything else because there's just not a lot of sobriety in the market that I've seen right now Not a lot of sobriety So Vince what does it tell you that people are not necessarily jumping into consumer discretionary those smokes and cokes as you say I mean does it tell you that they're concerned about growth No Does it tell you that the fed's going to load that the fed's going to be more accommodative I think it's simply because it's one of those classic trades on the street is to cover your losses you sell your winners and I think that's what's going on And until we get this until the capitulation finally happens and you just reach that exhaustion where that has occurred Dana I think you can see a bounce because people will come back into those over sold stocks That frankly in a real sense shouldn't be sold right now but you need to in your hedge fund to cover the losses to cover any margin costs maybe you have So I think that's more of the case than anything else And that kind of tends to run its course after a while and then things revert And creedy the S&P 500 done 1.9% yields down dollars up what is the cross asset read here To me what's interesting is that you're seeing so much volatility in the equity market but take a look at the bond market and it's not as volatile I don't want to say it's not volatile but not as volatile as we've seen the past I mean put this into some perspective here 12 14 basis point moves in one day and today I think on the ten year old we're only down 5 basis pedestrian I know It's very uncool of the treasury market But it's interesting that on a day where you are seeing that bid into treasuries they kind of put their safe haven hat back on You're seeing the dollar stronger And that was a reversal that I think we saw in yesterday's session where the dollar weakened over 1% in my mind and Vince was probably the better judge of this But to catch up with the movie you saw in yields today the dollar stronger So there is an element of risk off safe haven Ness for lack of better term All right we're going to have to leave it there guys Create a Gupta markets correspondent for Bloomberg with us in the Bloomberg interactive broker studio Vince Cigna global macro strategist for Bloomberg news Joining us on the phone from White Plains New York Just another check the Dow down 1.6% the S&P 500 down 1.8% the NASDAQ composite down 2.5% When we go from New York City to Washington D.C..

$1.9 trillion Walmart 2.5% 20% 1.8% Dana New York City 2% Vince Cigna 1.6% 1.9% yesterday Katie today Vince Washington D.C one day New York 5 senses S&P
"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:46 min | 3 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"And with us now is Vince Cigna global macro strap just he joined us now from White Plains Vince Elba's makes sense of what's going on here Is the detention that we've seen in the markets this week today is it because of geopolitical concerns Or is this about interest rates I think today we're mostly on geopolitical concerns Things ratcheted up a little bit today there was there was a car bomb that went off in the Donbass region that when it was originally reported Made the market feel that some sort of incursion had gone It turned out obviously just to be a club bomb no one was injured There was nobody in the car It was near a government building But markets took a deep dive on that If you just feel as one trader said to me today things are particularly jumpy even more so than usual I mean it's felt like a jumpy week in general But so what's interesting to me is that if you look at what's expected out of the fed you have seen a lot of rate hike bets get paired back for March in particular I think at one point last week there were 45 basis points priced in for March Now we're down to 31 basis points I mean how do you think all of this is factoring into how traders are pricing the fed and what the fed might actually be thinking here I think just to take the last part of that first I think the fed is going to be thinking 25 basis points So just my opinion of course I think the move to 50 basis points in doing at least what the market initially wanted them to do Which show a little bit of a sign of weakness a little bit of you basically have the fed then admitting that they're behind the curve I don't think the markets the risk markets We take that very well in general not from a standpoint of just an extra 25 basis points But from the standpoint of fed which it would feel like if that was panicking and people would think a lot more and more aggressive rate hikes would coming down the road The market had as you mentioned that's a good point for people to understand that the pricing is coming down because the market I think it's just getting a bit more realistic that it's going to be a 25 basis point Evans both but on the tape today walking back a potential 50 basis points And I think that's more in line of now what is expected if we do get 50 by March It's going to be a really big surprise I think it would definitely catch the street off start Hey Vince you're a macro strategist but we're also seeing a lot of moves in individual stocks today that are pretty outsized DraftKings for example down 20% Roku down 25% What are we learning about the macro environment as some of these formerly high flying tech companies come back down to earth Well I was actually listening to Charlie just before talking about Roku And the real story about one of the stocks like Roku unfortunately has become it's become the darling of the short selling community Today and it's call it whatever you want But whenever Kathy wood goes on CNBC and talks up the stock the next day the day traders go after it and she was up talking up well yesterday And you can almost bet that it's going to happen in the next day they take it down 25% So I'm not a great single single stock trader so no one should listen to a word I'm saying about this But as sure as an opportunity rather than a panic at these loans I mean of course Roku is the third biggest holding in the ark innovation ETF that's Kathy wood's biggest fund that fund down almost 5% today So just a rough day 52 week lows I know you love watching that in particular but sticking with earnings I mean it's been interesting for plenty of quarters consecutively It seems like consumers broad brush were very happy to absorb some of the price costs that will not very happy because consumer sentiment is super low but they were willing to absorb those costs It feels like maybe we're starting to see a little bit of pushback here Curious if that's your read as well Yeah no definitely I totally agree Especially if anyone has been to a gas station or a supermarket lately I think people are definitely changing their spending habits It's an economic theory that basically says people spend the same amount of money But instead of buying state by chicken although I don't think that's helping them anymore either I think what you're beginning to see is inflation even as the bureau of labor statistics is saying 5.7% cost adjustment this year I don't think we're seeing people get 5.7% increases in their pay package So when you're take home wages don't keep up with inflation you definitely see consumers pushing back a little They just they can't buy as much They have to buy less And that definitely affects sales And I think we'll see that going forward Hey Vince as we turn the corn on earnings season here help us understand just in the last 30 seconds that we have with you The next thing that you're keeping an eye on that could be a catalyst for markets I'd say honestly the biggest thing going forward is people need to look at obviously the CPI data but also what comes out with that is real average earnings And the real earnings for consumers as adjusted for inflation has been falling for about 9 months now That definitely needs to turn for earnings to stay steady and it's not more positive And to keep risk assets elevated All right Vince Cigna global macro strategist joining us as he does on Fridays from White Plains New York We're going to have much more on markets throughout the program today First though let's get a check on the latest world.

Vince Cigna Vince Elba Donbass Kathy wood Hey Vince fed White Plains Roku Evans CNBC bureau of labor statistics Charlie New York
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:56 min | 8 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"Christmas may be november already. Well i'm sure. Some of germany's eu partners would prefer that scenario. You mentioned the pro poor performance of the left and the fact that the cd was able to regain some ground in the latter days of the election campaign. Do you think then. There's been a significant shift of opinion in germany and actually no not significantly. It's just been split a little bit more. And so what has what has happened. Is that actually the center. Has benefited at the expense of the extreme. Both left and right have done worse and people have just moved across a different centers parties. So you can see a bit of fatigue with at city would says of course the expedite has really just benefited on the back of failures by by the city wouldn't by the greens and but not necessarily because of the great policies themselves and then the to pay has emerged. Pretty decently as well in. Interestingly has received the biggest share of first time. Voters amnon considering that this is a pro business liberal party. This is quite a surprise so no. I don't think it's a surprising result. It's still shows that the center is strong. It's just a little bit more dissect it and a thank you for this. That was an rosenberg from cigna global. Now here's monocle. ms searle with the day's other news. Headlines thanks daniel. The taliban have banned headdresses in afghanistan's helmand province from shaving or trimming bids saying it breaches islamic law. Religious police say that anyone who violates the rule will be punished reports from the capital kabul suggests bob as there have also received similar orders. Swiss voters have decided by a clear margin to legalize same sex marriage. Switzerland has allowed same sex couples to register partnership since two thousand seven but it has lagged behind other western european nations. In legally recognizing same sex marriage activists say it's a watershed moment for equal rights. in switzerland officials. In australia have announced plans to gradually reopen sydney. The system will give people who have vaccinated against cova nineteen more freedoms than those who aunt it means. The unvaccinated will be unable to dine out and take pasha community sports until later date and today's monaco minhaj takes a closer look at beijing international design week which runs until the seventh of october under the theme designing better life. You can find out more about the show by signing up to a daily news digest at monaco dot com forward slash minute those the day's headlines back to you daniel. Thanks very much emma. We are off to brighton on the english seaside now or the opposition. Labor party is holding its conference amid infighting and the backdrop of a national fuel crisis. George parker is political editor at the financial times. He's in brighton. Good afternoon george. The conference started with a row over. The party's leadership roles and facts. Tell us about that and how it's being received by members. Well that's right. There was an attempt by case. Basically if you've got a grip on the labor possi possibly the uk off the years attorney. How was hundred back in the cost to the pasta membership which tends to be more left wing than the positive and basically kissed this trying to exert more control presentable. Moderate face labor costs it was controversial but in the end kissed on through about three quarters of what he hopes to get through it. I think that will counts of success. We'll give us a rundown of what we expect from the leader today. And what's happening where you are. How is accused bomber hoping to get things back on track. Well kiss set piece. speaks to conferences on wednesday. So he's he's rounding about the place. He's choice trying to sort of set the tone for the conference you gave some interviews beforehand. Which are trying to the moderate so and he needs to win by people frank east but labor and conservative at the last election That undermines thought he thought that posse at a fringe meeting here Quite quite nice at night. Cool the conservatives scum which around which is the first day also. The competency is a good idea. It's just go history Scum probably okay stummer. i see what was talking. Make sure read the shadow. Chancellor of the exchequer setting out labor's economic message which is very much designed to reassure people. That probably would be responsible posse of government with sound public finances. She's gonna adopt fiscal rules bowling rules. Which essentially very much. The conservative party's well. that's Is quite interesting to lay out in the week that we're in obviously you mentioned off the top this national crisis over supply chains which is Really being seen by people right across the country Do you think members of the party. will to see The leadership you know call the conservative government out a little bit more or set their own path No absolutely just just stepped right rightfully speech and it's been a big theme shit minister be missing an option the tories of loss control very helpfully policy conservative. Psa you said it's all reminiscence. Winter discontents payments moments at the end of the labor governments in the nineteen seventies. So certainly they posse all kinds of explore this You know there's a question about how much this is beyond For trump since governments control this global supply chain crisis but nevertheless brexit has been an issue that something laid possible be hammering. I'm frankly if were if you're an opposition party and the headlines when he's everyday cues petrol stations and other signs of pails you'd be neglecting your exploit that very interesting and lots to watch they're just lastly george Lots and lots going on in the next couple of days. You mentioned the leader's speech on wednesday. Are there any particular other stories. You've got your eyes on. What might we see in the pages of the f. T. tomorrow and beyond well i think i think that is certainly the the the folks kiss fava speech. I think people introduce themselves to the british public. He's made the point for this conference that because of the pandemic he's never see addressed a live audience before. So i think that's gonna be a big thing and i think everyone's looking to see what sort of tony presents. County present themselves as a credible alternative to the governments What are we much about in the paper this morning. She's about some towns the spending with you which is coming up next month. But he's going to the lines spending one of the things that they want to do in the government is to plans for the university education. Back more to the graduates and the way the taxpayers. I mean that's gonna stink as well george. Thank you for this. We look very much forward to your coverage. That was the financial times george parker in brighton. You are listening to the briefing a monocle. Twenty four is proud to partner the briefing on monocle. Twenty four is a company that is committed to reimagining medicine. Global health care.

cigna global ms searle monaco minhaj germany switzerland brighton amnon daniel helmand liberal party frank east George parker cova rosenberg kabul pasha eu taliban Labor party conservative government
"cigna global" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

03:45 min | 8 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on KCRW

"His first Western US trip since taking office. Biden, stopping in Boise, Idaho, today to push for his infrastructure agenda, including a $3.5 trillion spending proposal will serve a fire damage in California and campaign on behalf of Democratic governor Gavin Newsom, who faces a recall vote tomorrow. The bite administration is taking new applications for recently reinstated program to help some minors from Central America reunite with parents in the U. S more from NPR's Frank Ordonez. President Biden restarted the Obama era program this spring that allows Children from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to apply to be reunited with a parent lawfully in the United States. The program was terminated by the Trump Administration. After restarting the program, the Biden administration reopened 1400 cases that had been closed by the previous administration. Then, In July, the Biden State Department and Homeland Security Department announced that it would expand eligibility to include legal guardians as well as parents in the United States. The White House says tens of thousands of families should be eligible for the program, which is seen as a safer alternative to illegal means of migration. Franco or Dona as NPR NEWS, Washington On Wall Street, the Dow was up 261 points. This is NPR. From the David Barnett Foundation newsroom at KCRW. I'm mad Gillam as we heard President Joe Biden is in California, and he will be appearing at Long Beach City College this evening. He's going to be campaigning on behalf of Governor Gavin Newsom, looking to help him fend off the recall. Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia told KCRW. The city was chosen to host the pair of leaders because of its successes during the pandemic. You relates to vaccines and of serving as a community when it comes to public health, so I'm proud of Long Beach. I'm proud that our vaccination rate is one of the best, um in the country. The visit is Newsom's final rally in the campaign to defeat the recall effort. Tomorrow is the deadline for voters statewide to cast their ballots or return their vote by mail ballot. You can hear more about Biden's visit from the mayor himself coming up at 5 44 here on KCRW. A group of LAPD officers is suing the city over its covid vaccine mandate for workers, saying it's unconstitutional to force them to get inoculated. Their lawsuit was filed over the weekend just ahead of today's deadline for city employees to receive their first shot. S KCRW's Darryl Saxman reports. It's the first major challenge to the city's sweeping order that all employees be fully immunized by October. 19th. The half a dozen LAPD employees who joined the lawsuit include those who say they cannot assert a medical or religious exemption to the vaccine order and others who say they have contracted covid and are protected by natural anti bodies. They claim the city's mandate as a violation of their rights to privacy and due process. The lawsuit names Mayor Eric Garcetti and police chief Michael Morris defendants. The officers also say they have been harassed and unduly pressure to get vaccinated by LAPD leaders, according to the L A Times. The lawsuit alleges that commanders have called unvaccinated officers unfit for duty. And told them that they would be denied promotions and special assignments based on their unvaccinated status. KCRW's Darryl Saxman L. A City attorney, Mike Fiore has responded to the legal challenge, saying quote This lawsuit is much more a political statement than it is a sound argument. He says Supreme Court alongside courts across the country have upheld vaccine mandates. Support for NPR comes from Cigna Global Health Service company dedicated to helping people improve their health well being and peace of mind. More information is available at cigna dot com. Cloudy and foggy and breezy tonight at the beach is increasing clouds as we make it through the afternoon, overnight lows along the coast in the upper fifties. Currently it is 68 in Manhattan Beach..

Frank Ordonez Darryl Saxman United States October. 19th 1400 cases Cigna Global Health Service $3.5 trillion Manhattan Beach Trump Administration Honduras July Biden Central America Biden State Department David Barnett Foundation Franco Tomorrow Mike Fiore Dona Michael Morris
"cigna global" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM

WABE 90.1 FM

03:17 min | 8 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on WABE 90.1 FM

"Hour. If it strengthens the 74 miles an hour, it would be a hurricane. But either way, the storm could bring as much as 20 inches of rain to some spots. President Biden is on his first Western US trip since taking office. Biden, stopping in Boise, Idaho, today to push for his infrastructure agenda, including a $3.5 trillion spending proposal will serve a fire damage in California and campaign on behalf of Democratic governor Gavin Newsom, who faces a recall vote tomorrow. The bite administration is taking new applications for recently reinstated program helps some minors from Central America reunite with parents in the U. S. More from NPR's Frank Ordonez. President Biden restarted the Obama era program this spring that allows Children from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras to apply to be reunited with a parent lawfully in the United States. Program was terminated by the Trump Administration. After restarting the program, the Biden administration reopened 1400 cases that had been closed by the previous administration. Then, In July, the Biden State Department and Homeland Security Department announced that it would expand eligibility to include legal guardians as well as parents in the United States. The White House says tens of thousands of families should be eligible for the program, which is seen as a safer alternative to illegal means of migration. Franco or down. Yes. NPR NEWS Washington On Wall Street, the Dow was up 261 points. This is NPR. The high Commissioner for Human Rights, Michelle Basha, let warns climate change pollution and nature laws pose the biggest threats to human rights globally. Lisa Slide in Geneva reports Basha Let says the triple planetary crisis is depriving people to their rights to food, water development and even life at the opening of the Human Rights Council Bachelor told delegates that are safe, clean, healthy and sustainable environment was the foundation of human life and had to be protected, who is month have unleashed Extreme and murderous climate event. People never region monumental fires in Siberia and California. Huge sudden floats in China, Germany and Turkey, much like Warren, the impact of climate change was leading to increase drought, famine, mass migration and conflict in many regions of the world, she said, the future of humanity depended on governments acting to preserve the world's precious resources. For NPR News. I'm Lisa Schlein in Geneva, according to Netherlands has said that uber drivers essentially fall into the same category as Dutch taxi drivers and therefore should be entitled to the same employment benefits. The Amsterdam Civil Court, in a statement today said the legal relationship between uber and its drivers quote conforms to all the characteristics of an employment contract. Dutch Workers organization that brought the case called the decision a major victory. Uber says it will appeal the ruling futures prices moved higher today. Oil up 9/10 of a percent to close above $70 a barrel For the first time since August. I'm Jack Spear, NPR news in Washington. Support for NPR comes from NPR stations. Other contributors include Cigna Global Health Service company dedicated to.

Lisa Schlein Frank Ordonez United States 1400 cases Uber Jack Spear Siberia China Biden Human Rights Council Central America Trump Administration Biden State Department $3.5 trillion Cigna Global Health Service July Lisa Slide Turkey Honduras El Salvador
Biden Calls Xi as US-China Relationship Grows More Fraught

Monocle 24: The Briefing

01:10 min | 9 months ago

Biden Calls Xi as US-China Relationship Grows More Fraught

"Us president joe biden has held a lengthy phone conversation with his chinese counterpart xi jinping the first time the leaders from the world's most powerful countries have talked in seven months. A white house statement said both men had discussed. The responsibility of both nations to ensure competition does not veer into conflicts. Let's get more on this now with former. Us diplomat. Louis lukens lose now. A senior partner at the consultancy cigna global. Good afternoon to you lou and tell us this phone call after a hiatus does he represent a real meaningful breakthrough in your view. Hey tom i think it's too early to tell. If this is a meaningful breakthrough. But i think it is significant. As you mentioned there was a quite a height as they hadn't spoken the two leaders for seven months and this book for ninety minutes yesterday which include interpretation that that's forty five minutes of substantive discussion so it's meaningful in the sense that it's important. The leaders of these two countries communicate and talk and try to find areas that they can cooperate and work together. And that's what joe biden has been trying to. Do i think so whether this results in a ratcheting down of tension. I think remains to be seen. But it's certainly a step in the right direction

Louis Lukens Cigna Global Xi Jinping Joe Biden White House United States LOU TOM
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:41 min | 9 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"London's anti pavilion skewed. Thank you very much nick. That was miracles. urbanism specialist. Nick minnie's all that right here on the briefing with me. Mark was hit. The uk government has is is talking to the taliban about securing the safe passage of a number of british and afghan nationals. Who still trapped in kabul is follows an announcement from the us president. Joe biden that he will continue efforts to bring the remaining two hundred americans back from afghanistan. Let's get the latest now with louis. Lucas former. us diplomats now senior partner at cigna global. Thanks for joining us and good afternoon to you lou. First of all. How much do we know off. These talks between the us the uk and the taliban. Hey marcus so. We don't know that much. i mean. I think for obvious reasons. They are trying to hold these talks in a very discreet in somewhat secretive manner. I think the white house chief of staff last night said that there was very little chance of the united states would recognize. The taliban is the legitimate government of afghanistan. i think he's actually I think that's a little bit misleading. I think the united states recognized is on some level that has to work with the taliban if it wants to try to maintain some stability in some security for the people of afghanistan so these talks are being held very discreetly In investing with the help of third parties and i think the united states does want to work in concert with its allies with the united kingdom. So that if it does end up in some form recognizing the taliban as the government about the anderson is not doing alone to us more about homeless. We actually know off these discreet. So for example. Who would those opposable first posses be. Who have been helping with well. Certainly the government of qatar has been very helpful all along. They hosted the peace talks for many years between the taliban and for while the afghan government and the united states and i think they are continuing to play a role in trying to mediate between the western powers and the taliban. And i think they're also playing probably a helpful role in trying to explain to the taliban that the west does have some red lines. Right i mean the the. The west is not going to recognize the taliban if they Revert to the behavior that we saw twenty years ago and beating people in killing people in executing people. There's some evidence that that behavior is starting to happen again. And the question is whether the leadership of the taliban is able to rein in its adherents and sort of encourage them or force them to not behave in such a barbaric manner because the risk is if they do that then they lose their recognition of the west and more importantly for them they lose the finances that would flow from that recognition is. It's really about money for the taliban then and to which extent dust taliban wanted to be recognized by say the west look i think on some level they obviously they want to be recognized. Internationally is legitimate government that would give them a certain influence in gravitas. Which i think they would probably like but i think the money part of it is very very important in afghanistan is facing drought. They're facing food insecurity for a lot of the people there. the the the taliban You know is traditionally made a lot of money through the drug trade and if they wanna be seen as the legitimate government of a state of a nation state. They're going to have to turn away from that. And look for more legitimate ways to to fund the government into fund Assistance to the people. There and i think there are organizations nations in the west that are eager to provide assistance to the afghan people in food. Food and medicines and things like that but again it's hard to work with the government which is seen as barbaric extremists so the taliban is going to have to rein in their worst impulses. I think what the. Us and the uk engage the taliban wilson. If he wasn't in order to rescue say this descendants from the country rescuing the remaining citizens is certainly an important component of why we why these countries want to try to work with the taliban. And i think beyond that is is larger question of helping afghans who are stuck in the country who who have no reason or no claim to be evacuated the west but who will be suffering under under what are somewhat pluto conditions right. Now so it's a combination of trying to get out citizens but also i think empathy for the people of games. Dan and trying to help them. Not you know not starve to death in his drought that the country is experiencing right now. Is it too early to say what. The relationship will be between afghanistan controlled by the taliban to the west in the future a little bit early. My guess is that at some point down the road. We see some level of recognition. Maybe even with small diplomatic missions in kabul on a lot of that of course will depend on whether the taliban is able to ensure the safety of westerners in the security of westerners in the country but i think you know the west will want after having been there for twenty years occupying the country and being a war for twenty years will want to have some level of influence in the country. Post post war. And and and and i think the way that you that you do that is by having a small diplomatic and humanitarian development assistance presence in the country thanks lou this was the former. Us diplomats louis. Lucas and no here is more cool semi cereal with the day's other news headlines. Thanks marcus officials. In new orleans have imposed a curfew as the city remains without power following hurricane ida. The measure was announced as police confirmed reports of looting and she companies are working to restore power in new orleans but residents have been warned that it could take weeks. New zealand's government has lifted most of the lockdown restrictions that were introduced to control an outbreak of the highly infectious covered. Nineteen delta variant. However about one point seven million people in the largest city of auckland will remain in the country's strict level four lockdown for two weeks. Japan's prime minister yoshida suge says he has no plans to dissolve the country's lower house of parliament. It comes as suge faces caused. Stand down over. His handling of the pandemic domestic media reported this week that he was planning to dissolve parliament in a bid to force a general election and authorities in helsinki have suggested declaring the finnish capital an english speaking city and a bid to attract and keep international talent. You can find out more about helsinki's proposal by heading to monaco dot com forward slash minute.

taliban Us afghanistan Nick minnie cigna global uk afghan government kabul Joe biden lou Lucas marcus louis nick qatar white house London Mark anderson hurricane ida
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:45 min | 9 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"Business headlines around up of stories making news in bolivia and a bit later in the program guides alone monocle is man in the balkans. And i'll be bringing you blood in the olive oil on the croatian coast as tourism businesses. Literally fight for customers all that right here on the briefing with me. Daniel bauge the united states is being pressed by its allies to delay its withdraw from afghanistan and allow more time to evacuate those who want to flee the country. Us troops control kabul airport but are scheduled to leave by the end of the month. The issue will be raised at today's virtual g seven meeting. let's get the latest now with louis lukens former. Us diplomat and now a senior partner at cigna global lou thanks for joining us leaders of the uk. France and others will be putting pressure on president. Joe biden today. what are you expecting. Well i expect the conversation about the extending the deadline. The withdrawal deadline to be fairly quick. I think i mean joe biden seems have made up his mind. Maybe have the deadlines slip by a couple of days if absolutely necessary. But he's determined to not have this evacuation drag out for weeks and weeks. I will note. The washington post has just broken the story that the cia director Ambassador bill burns met in in in kabul with the leader of the taliban a couple of days ago in the secret meeting. So i'm sure they were discussing the possibility of extending the deadline. But i think the chances of that are fairly small. I think what the meeting today should really focus on. We'll hopefully focus on is is moving forward do does the g seven recognized the taliban as illegitimate government of aghanistan. How do they get aid to the ask people who are going to really need it very shortly when other international funding to the government dries up So i think hopefully the meeting of the g seven meeting will be more forward looking at just the deadline next week well abdulah abdulah and karzai are involved saying they would like to help in negotiations. What are the prospects of that. And what might the conversation about the g seven. Be about how they could facilitate speaking to the taliban. Well i mean look the g. Seven can make decisions about whether to include officials in in discussions about a government. But really it's gonna come down to. The taliban right like is ultimately their decision whether or not they want to have a power sharing agreement with former members of the government. My guests at this point and not knowing really. The situation on the ground is that they're not going to be inclined to do that. They are coming at this from a position of strength right now. So why would they compromise. I think the g seven leaders would like to see some balance in the government and have it not just be taliban government but i think history has shown us that sharing power in afghanistan does not necessarily lead to you know smooth governance. Of course there's great concern over the security situation. At the moment we mentioned What's happening at the airport. But i imagine The wider impacts of the pullout will also be on the agenda today namely migration. I think for certainly a migration and not just within that region but across the globe and certainly europe and north america but also issues like food security and you know the funding that has made its way to the afghan people has come from the international community and if the if the international community decided to cut off all assistance to afghanistan now because they don't recognize the taliban that will put the afghan people in really precarious difficult situation. So i think they'll be discussing this weekend or sorry today Ways that they can continue to get assistance and nutritional aid to the afghan people maybe not necessarily working directly with the taliban working with international organizations. But all of us can require the cooperation at some point of the taliban. Well we've heard a lot about the surprise and the speed of how a taliban was able to take over the country obviously since the us began pulling out But what is the conversation about how there could still be some western presence on the ground as you say. Joe biden may have made up his mind about the withdraw at the end of this month but To some of those points that you're making about food security and humanitarian issues. There will probably need to be some sort of presence still in afghanistan there. Will i think it remains to be seen what that looks like. Immune diseases afghanistan become a country like iran. Where the united states has zero presence at all and operates through an intermediary or does the united states at some point decide to return with a small presence in his embassy in in downtown kabul. And i think a lot of the direction that goes will depend a lot on how the taliban behaves as the new leaders aghanistan and yet they. They're sort of putting this idea out there that there are soft during kinder gentler taliban than they used to be already. I think we're seeing cracks in that image in it if they really If they revert to their previous behavior in this or the atrocities that they would carry out. It'll be much harder for the united states to recognize the government and to have a presence in kabul but they legitimately allow women and girls who go to school into to work and then they don't have reprisal killings and things like that it will be easier for the united states something to justify maintaining a small presence in the in the country. Well i'm sure. There are conversations in parts of washington and sh- wider perhaps at the g seven today about the possibility of sanctions end squeezing the taliban until the us and the and its allies. Get their way afghanistan again. Yeah i'm sure they'll be talking about that today. But the challenge is with sanctions is that it's hard to design sanctions that specifically target the leadership and don't hurt the general population in the country. And i think the g seven countries will really want to be sure that they don't impose sanctions or conditions on the country. That actually hurt. The average people living out in the countryside who then don't have access to food and medicine another necessities so sanctions are great in principle. But they're actually very hard to craft in a way that really targets leadership and not the general population of a country lou. Thanks for this. That is former. Us diplomat and partner at cigna global advisors lewis locates. Now here's monaco's emma searle with the day's other news headlines thanks daniel. Israel's health officials say the cova nineteen vaccine boost to drive is beginning to have an impact on high infection rates less than a month after the jobs were introduced. The delta variant hit israel in june. Just off to the country began to reap the benefits of one of the world's fastest vaccine.

taliban kabul us Joe biden afghanistan Daniel bauge louis lukens cigna global lou thanks Ambassador bill burns abdulah abdulah taliban government balkans bolivia The washington post karzai cia France uk north america
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk

Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk

08:14 min | 10 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk

"Welcome to episode four and the final installment of the foreign desks summit series in which we examine historical events as the foreign desk might have covered them at the time working. Only from the information which would have been available to us this week. We go back to nineteen seventy nine and the beginnings of the iran hostage crisis remaining ovide journalist and author of city of lies love sex death and the search for truth in tehran. Plays monaco's correspondent in the iranian capital. Holly dogmas senior fellow at the atlantic council and curator of the iran est newsletter plays an analyst based in tehran volley nasa former state department advisor and professor of middle east studies at johns hopkins. University plays a foreign policy expert based in washington. Dc and lou lukens former us ambassador to senegal and guinea-bissau now senior partner at cigna global advises plays a foreign policy expert based in london in al parallel universe. This broadcasts on saturday november tenth nineteen seventy-nine report last sunday. November fourth protesters climbed over the walls of the us embassy compound in tehran. The mob who stormed the building appear to be adherence of the ayatollah ruhollah khomeini the hardline. Shia cleric who returned to iran in february after years in exile shortly after iran's previous ruler. Sean muhammed resume. Pahlavi fled the country after a month of tumult as we go to air. Dozens of people are being held hostage including perhaps sixty or so american citizens the captors demanding the return of the shah presently undergoing medical treatment in the united states to face revolutionary justice. The seizure of the embassy has already had seismic effects on iran's domestic politics prime minister mehdi bazaga appointed by the taller from any has resigned in apparent protest at the overrunning. The embassy along with his cabinet there is no longer any doubt that khomeini is seeking to remake iran in his own folding image bay strident anti-americanism was already a feature of khomeini's sent islamic republic. But this week's events already heady raising the stakes. The taking of an embassy and the kidnapping of diplomats is certainly a provocation arguably an active war. Us president jimmy carter finds a gauntlet at his feet. Where is the ayatollah khomeini going with this. What are president. Carter's options and how why. And when did relations between the united states and iran deteriorate to this perilous point. This is the foreign desk. It's an extraordinary scene now. They're being crowded protesters turning every day. Lots of banners outside the embassy graffiti on the wolf down with the usa. And you can see some of the world of blackened from when the demonstrators theft by two parts of the compound. There's a lot of anger at the united states. And i think it's impossible to say at this point whether this will be a couple of event or if it will last longer you're listening to the foreign desk. I'm andrew miller for an update first of all on the latest from tehran. I'm joined by our reporter on. The scene remained remain described forest. If you will the scene around the embassy compound right now. What is the atmosphere like on the ground and extraordinarily seen here. Now they're crowded. Protracted turning every day look outside the embassy graffiti on the down with the usa and you can see some of the wolves of blackened from when the demonstrators fired part. The compound journalists. Count out here because the hostage-takers you know been giving press conferences. Now compounded felt is being heavily guarded by armed students to make sure no can escape them. Nobody can get in can get out and the young religious men who supported ayatollah khomeini. Now this began with these demonstrators. We saw last sunday november. The fourth do you get the sense that the seizure of the embassy was a spontaneous act by people caught up in the moment or was this something that seemed to have been quite carefully. Planned in advance may have looked contained so ayatollah khomeini cooled on his supporters to attack. Us and the protesters jiffy turned up here at the us embassy but at the situation being progressing and getting more information it seems that this was carefully orchestrated and well planned now. We're hearing that three islamic leftist student leaders up behind this. I've been hearing that. No older students were politics. Agreed with the plan but they went along anyway now. One young man in particular was against this plan. His name is mahmoud madina now. He's a striking young man. Andrew for strident conservatism. He wanted the students to take over the embassy of the soviet union. How is it actually possible for any amount of people to over on the embassy which one assume would be fairly well-guarded they would be. Us marines on the premises. And of course. This isn't the first time that demonstrators of had a pulp at the us embassy. There was a seizure of very brief one earlier this year right now. The nine months ago on february the fourteenth why after the top topple the embassy was pretty violently attacked by crowds. They ransacked the building. Smashed equipment for stuff to lie on the floor gunpoint. One iranian embassy employee was killed. He west marine and three other. Americans were wounded now. This could be why the demonstrators managed to take control of the embassy so easily this time because the us marines and a god who were there was no way of fighting back but they should have been warning. Sign the protestors spray the embassy building gunfire and all the us marines could do with five with birch or even then the us ambassador. William sullivan ordered the marines to put down their weapons now. It does seem that the seizure of the us embassy mostly unarmed protesters say quickly and with such ease but we know light last time that the gods did try to defend the compound with tear gas. Not because they're not allowed to use firearms now. The students have released some the hostages including one arabian interpreted. Who's been speaking to journalists. She says the demonstrators just walked into the compound this time and nobody stopped them now. She says the stoffel taken to a maximum security floor and giving gas mask around two hours later. Students stormed the building and the marine. Let them in the room weather star. Were cowering you were saying earlier. That the students who took the embassy or at least they representatives have been giving press conferences. How clear they bean about what they want. And what their intentions are now. Very very demanding. The extradition of show one of the people at the embassy staff would be held until the us government with tons the shot to iran to stand trial now. The students request is not matt. They will take measures against the hostages in lima public opinion. Now not only not seem to fear. America's response seem incredibly emboldened and brazen the key figure lurking behind this of course is the ayatollah khomeini and we will be discussing him more later in the show. But is it your sense that he is directing this or following it because there does seem quite clear split in that he is a man of several generations ahead of the revolutionaries you are describing. They genuinely following him.

iran ayatollah khomeini tehran us Plays monaco Holly dogmas est newsletter lou lukens cigna global Sean muhammed khomeini mehdi bazaga atlantic council bissau Pahlavi us marines senegal johns hopkins state department guinea
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:39 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"The question what proportion of people who have. The flu have long term complications. What's the answer to that. chris. I i completely agree with you. This is not going to be as bad as it was previously. Absolutely what will be that is the rate of hospitalization simply because they're going to be so many more people infected but that will not result in the same level of deaths. That's the first point that make the second point that i'll make is that. Of course the reason that u k had such a high death toll is not entirely down to reluctance to wearing face masks. That many the reasons that that i think we are on the same page there. But i do believe that. The reluctance to wear face masks. M more willingly has definitely contributed to etching that death toll higher compared to other many european countries. Where attorneys to face masks has seemed to be more disciplined if you will. And lastly the study. That i'm referring to when i'm talking about said he was published in the lancet and done on about three hundred thousand covert survivors. I am not sure what the complications are from through. I am not a scientist. So i cannot answer this question. I think it is important. The highlight what we're doing here is an experiment on the unvaccinated use on children specifically and i think that sold known merits a somewhat. More cautious approach now. I echo you positive team overall. I think that for the economy. This is the right way to go. And it's more likely than not to work out however it will have human consequences. Well one-sentence this is a discussion. That could run and run but there. I'm afraid we must leave it and a thanks very much as ever forbade with us. That was anna rosenberg from cigna global. And before that. I'm thanks him once again. Markle's health and science correspondent. Dr chris smith mixed up on the program. Let's cross to collateral rabelo. She's here with the day's other news headlines. Thanks tom for people suspected of assassinating haiti's president. Juvenal mois have been killed in a shootout with security forces to others have also been detained but officers are still attempting to arrest the remaining suspects in the nation's capital port-au-prince authorities in. Lithuania have announced that they plan to build a barrier on the border with belarus and deploy troops to prevent migrants from illegally crossing into its territory. The government says that more than one thousand migrants have been held at the border in recent weeks. Japan's media reports dot olympic. Organisers are set to ban all spectators from the games it comes as authorities prepare to declare a state of emergency in tokyo in a bit to curve corn avars infections. Two games have been beset by a series of setbacks since last summer's postponement and the monocle. Minute examines the nation sectors attempts to allow passengers to travel safely and quickly again. You can find out more by heading to monaco dot com for slash minute or by downloading yesterday's edition of the briefing for an interview with the international air transport association. Those are today's headlines back to you tom. Thank you very much. Indeed kaleta now lebanon's caretaker prime minister hassan. Diab abbas warned. The nation is on the verge of an imminent social implosion. The international community must act to help stem. It's deep and far-reaching crisis if follows warnings from the world bank about the dire state of beirut's covers well. Let's get the latest now with tom. Fletcher who is the. Uk's ambassador to lebanon between twenty seven and twenty fifteen. Tom thank you very much for joining us and good afternoon to you. How concerned should we be about the situation. We've been tracking this decline ever greater fragmentation but these warnings are stock. Anything we've heard. How are you good. Tom very I mean i think this is a desperate situation. that lebanon's has found itself in now in a way. It's a bit like the frog in boiling water. You don't realize quite how bad things are until the waters boiled. It's it's it really is boiling now. And it's not just the economic crisis that the currency crisis it's the lack of medicine and food getting into the country and also you know an extra factor which is the inability of the government to pay the army's salaries The army has sent. In the last decade played this crucial stabilizing role in lebanon. And and that could be could become very shaky. Well what are the next steps then. Look like given all of that There's this incredibly volatile situation as a fear as you said if fundamentals not happening there is also this feeling of you. Know kind of continuing exodus. Almost of skilled people who leave the country just feel it no longer offers them a stable enough environment in which to to to operate how much worse yet could things get. Will you right about that about that. Brain drain and there's a sense of real despondency among lebanese people. At the moment very striking you know these famous some of the most resilient people on on the planet have been for for millennia But it's very hard to find Reasons for optimism at the moment and a lot of people are leaving And those staying behind Vinnie very fragile. Very anxious so. I mean we can either wait for this to get even worse and wait for some sort of disaster to happen and then be prompted action all we have to find ways to rally round now and get get some sort of basic support in that. The problem is that all international community have lost complete confidence in working in any way with lebanon's political leaders and the government. we are and this was the point. I wanted to ask you about tom. And i don't know whether you can reflect on your time going back ten years to to the start of your appointment. There is as you ambassador. Is there any learnings that you have. That would hint at what that engagement from. All of these other stakeholders without lebanon might might look like you've mentioned as a loss of faith a a loss of trust and as institutions like the world bank worn of the parlous state of finances. Wh what could that look like. What could happen. Indeed is seventy one with hands on sufficient levers to offer some reassurance to those important external stakeholders so. It's very difficult to find the right partner. Suddenly within lebanese politics at the moment it may be a key moments. When i was there when we were dealing with the syria crisis in particular and things were very fragile politically and economically..

lebanon anna rosenberg cigna global Dr chris smith rabelo Juvenal mois tom kaleta Diab abbas Markle flu international air transport as chris Lithuania belarus haiti au Tom monaco hassan
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

08:01 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"Why wait for that all that and more ahead here on the briefing with me. Tom edwards several eu member states have reintroduced border restrictions in a bid to control the spread of the highly contagious. Delta corona virus variant comes as brussels keeps a close eye on events here in london the the uk government is forging ahead with plans to fully reopen the country's economy. Well let's get the latest now with anna rosenberg. Head of europe and the uk and political consultancy cigna global and monaco's health and science correspondent. Dr chris smith and anxious Join us now. I'm good afternoon to you both and let me ask you first of all. I know you've been considering this latest balancing act between The pressure not to reimpose drastic lockdowns to open up its driven by economic imperatives of course with the pressure of the public health concern that shows no sign of abating. How would you characterize the way that balance is being struck across the bloc. So it's it's of course a very tricky tricky balancing act at this point in time. But i think that there's a clear wind of change which is now tilting in favor of economic reopening because caseloads are still low at this moment in time it is politically very very difficult to actually justify imposing new lockdowns and reimposing border controls. You have a few res. A restrictions being imposed in set up at the moment and when it comes trebling but those are not real restrictions. So i think we're now heading more towards an opening up accepting the caseloads are going to go up but also knowing that populations are slightly better protected. So i think it's. It's less likely that we're going to go back to radical lockdowns that we we've seen before. Of course the eu is going to watch the uk very very closely if there is a u-turn in the uk the eu is very likely going to act accordingly as well. Well don't let me bring you in here and really instructive or anna. Says we've talked so often. Haven't we about these various balancing acts. The uk though now is embarked upon or it's about to further embark upon essentially this move towards a herd. Immunity can one backtrack. If you do proceed down. That course will hurt. Immunity is a medical term. That basically means you protect a population up to a certain level by either having an infection or having vaccination against an infection and among that heard in that media will be unprotected people but because they are so few and far between they are protected by the immunity of those around them. So there's nothing special about the herd immunity we're going to get there either by vaccination or infection or both and we're close ninety percent of the uk population of adults have had at least one dose of the vaccine now about two thirds have had two doses and we know that for protection against the delta agent that came from india the you need both doses of the vaccine so the world is watching what happens in the uk because we're going into an escalating number of cases but what we're not seeing those cases becoming casualties. We're not seeing that translating at the moment into very heavy pressure on our health services that we're not saying this translate into significant numbers of people who are losing lives. Thank goodness it's a fraction of what it was. If you look in january when we had twenty thirty forty thousand cases a day and ask how many people were going and tell us at that point. It was thousands per day. How many people were in hospital. At that point. It was tens of thousands half of the beds that the nhs had to had to deliver. Now we've got about two percent of the population in hospital with creative arts at the moment. Yes those numbers all going up. Yes we're seeing an uptick as the cases go but the ratio between the two is now very very small compared to where it was so it gives people confidence that going down this road. I'm relying on the vaccines at this. Stage appears to be the right route. Take because we all agree as patrick valance. Uk chief scientific officer said The only sort of solid thing that we know about here is that there is no chance zero johnson zero covert. This is not something we can get rid of. Well yeah let me ask you again. Then you mentioned this idea of the the is the block being on the uk as we kind of take the lead i guess on this does does it block view the uk as the kind of quintessential canary in the coalmine. Or is there an expectation that actually. It does demonstrate. Not just this. Yes or no something. Very stark binary choice. But that is the route that the others have to to follow. What's the kind of political mood as those leaders in the block. Look to the uk. Well i think there. There's going to be quite a stark difference in terms of how the us going to go down. That route west the u. k. And let me emphasize the approach. The uk is taken is very high risk. It is more likely to work out the not but by a very small margin. And i tell you why if you look at the doubling of hospitalizations. They seem to double every nine days at this point in time which means that. By mid august we're going to have his hospitalization rates similar to the last peak. There's going to be an immense pressure on the health service. We're going to see some casualties indeed going to be much lower than before. But we're going to see a lot hospitalizations and there's a there's an acceptance by the uk government that the they're willing to pay the price of a human cost and that willingness is clear by getting rid of all social distancing measures and by lifting facemask restrictions. Now there is no need to go quite as radical you. Can you can open up the economy by being less radical and. I think this is what we're going to see in in the eu the you is also going to open up a one to open up a half the pressure to open up but they're not going to 'em sacrifice social distance measures that not going to sacrifice mosque. Wear on the contrary once. Delta continues to edge up which it will your will be whether uk is now by mid august. You're going to see these social distancing meshes being reimposed facemasks being reimposed lockdowns localized lockdowns not radical big ones being reimposed. It's a cost benefit analysis ultimately. The uk is running a high risk. Gamble that could be high reward. Which means that you reach her immunity foster you come out better quicker on the other side and you accept you have a high human cost on the way versus the eu is going down a little bit more middle middle of the road a bit. More cautious meaning it will have a lower human cost it will have slightly less rapid economic opening so that will be a slight economic cost and but ultimately this is of course what you prioritize an economy. And they're they're absent and positives downside both cases but i believe the eu is going to take a much low cautious approach and if the uk has to do a u-turn because it ends up that the ss very rapidly overwhelmed the utah and will not be as radical dramatic. Because they won't have to impose as drastic lockdowns as the uk will have because they've kept social distancing and place must bring you in on that point is far from alone in pointing out inconsistencies with some of the plan strategies for later this month and into august particularly around these things. She said it starkly. This'll sacrificial element of getting rid of all mask-wearing wearing or giving people the option to to forego that entirely including on things like public transport. You agree with that reading. This is an almost unnecessarily aggressive. Confrontational move by the british government pushing further even than they needed to my reading of this. Is that the government is seeking to remove the legal enforcement of many of these things. They're not saying that you shouldn't do them. They're saying that legally we're going to stop telling people to do them. And i think that's quite different..

uk eu Tom edwards anna rosenberg cigna global Dr chris smith patrick valance monaco brussels anna europe london nhs india johnson Delta us utah
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

07:09 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"York prosecutors have indicted the trump organization along with its chief financial officer while donald trump himself is expected to be charged this week. The diamond reportedly concerns the organizations failure to pay tax on employees fringe benefits. What might this mean for trump's political prospects. Well we're joined for more on this by lukens former. Us diplomat now. Senior partner with cigna global advisors. Good often into you lou. Always good to have you on the program We understand just in the last few minutes. That trump's long-serving cfo allen voice burke surrendered to the manhattan district attorney's office. This is a story. That's moving on quite quickly But what do you make of the This kind of the news. Line head indictments are pending. So yes look indictments will be unsealed later today. So we don't know exactly what is in them. But as you noted the trump organization chief financial officer has surrendered to the authorities. The speculation is that the indictments revolve around tax fraud. Tax evasion. And what they're calling off the books compensation for for members of the trump organization so but but my initial thought beyond that is that the new york state attorney general and the manhattan district attorney would be unlikely to bring charges against the trump organization without having sort of more on the books. You know what. I mean like just tax evasions seems a little bit light so my guess is that this is partly a way depressure of the chief financial officer to sort of spill the beans and come up with more evidence against the trump organization. Now let me ask you a bit more detail about this. Because i read a few months really interesting. I think it was the new york archie about cyrus vance junior and this sort of mission that he was on clearly. There's a there's a mega opportunity here for somebody to be the person that sort of gets donald trump. I use the term. You know with with with quote marks. Is this the beginning of that process or is there still so much of this jockeying. People need to be a bit cautious. Do we just have to kind of put. The brakes on and measure our expectation somewhat. Now i think it's the beginning of the process. I mean look. They've been work. They've been working on this for three years. I mean sivan's has been investigating this organization for three years and again i don't think he would ring in the new york state attorney. General would bring these of through a grand jury. If they weren't confident they had more charges to come right. This is a is a huge thing to go after former president and his organization is as you noted in the introduction. President trump has already seized on this calling it the continuation of the world's greatest witch hunt ever so he will actually try to turn this his political benefit. And i think that sivan's on the teacher. James would have been very cautious by bringing charges unless they were confident that they these charges would stick and but also that they have more to come we until that point. I did want to ask you specifically in terms of how trump choice to seize the narrative. Reframe it according to you. Know his own story. He said you know this is biased. It's rude and nasty. A cynic might say some things he might know a thing or two about. Is there a danger here that you know success or failure in the courtroom aside this does fit this trump me against the world narrative and if we look ahead to you know twenty twenty four it could end up galvanizing this base which we know enjoys they like to celebrate this idea of trump as the guy that holds his face up against the rest of the world. I mean is that a risk presumably something that sivan's in the tissue james of Are being very mentioned about why the i'm sure they're being measured. But it is a risk and the stories that are coming out this morning. Indicate that donald trump was actually quite pleased. When you learned about the indictments A because he felt that the charges were sort of light but also because of that point that it will galvanize his base in. It'll give him you know his two big things. Now we'll be I actually won the election in two thousand twenty and it was stolen from me and the democratic establishment continues this terrible witch hunt against me and my family my organization the risk donald trump is that while does galvanize his base. My sense is that his base is starting to shrink the a lot of more moderate republicans and independents are tiring of his constant complaining and whining about last year's election so while an increasingly small base will be galvanized in will love this and donald trump will love getting them fired up by this. I think the risk to him is that a broader pool of voters starts to drift away from him. Yeah absolutely and we'll time will reveal that to us. I just wanted to see. This is speculative. but i'll ask you any case it doesn't feel to me like allen. Myburgh holds the smoking gun here when it comes to donald trump personally. Is there any sense. A you hearing Through your kind of networks who that person might be and when they may reveal themselves peop- up if you like from behind the parapet do. Do we know when that might be. My sense is advice will. Berg is sort of the key guy and he is the person who knows where all the money is and and has been hidden. And what's been done over all the many years and he seems to be intensely loyal to donald trump and as you know the they've been the authorities have been trying to flip him for the last couple of months and he has refused to turn on donald trump. And i think the indictments that were unsealed later today against him specifically and personally are further pressure on the part of the district attorney and the attorney general in new york to try to force him to come to terms with. You know you're either going to spend the next twenty years in jail or you can tell us what's really going on in the trump administration trump organization grimly compelling. We'll check in with lou pops. Once we know more detail about those indictments but thank you for now for joining us. Us diplomat louis lukens. Now let's hear from oracle's page reynolds she standing by with the day's other news headlines. Thanks tom china's president. Xi jinping has warned that his country will not be deterred by foreign forces who attempt to bully his nation. his speech marks. The one hundred anniversary of the founding of the chinese communist party and comes as beijing faces international pressure over its domestic and foreign affairs. The australian state of new south wales says significant numbers of the new cove. Nineteen cases are being found in the community. It comes as australia. Battles flare ups infections in several states. Nearly half of all australians are under stay at home orders to prevent any major outbreak of the delta strain of the virus the former u. s. defense secretary donald rumsfeld has died at age of eighty eight rumsfeld who was at the pentagon when it was hit by a hijacked airplane during the nine eleven attacks will become one of the key architects of the iraq war in two thousand and three. He resigned three days. Later amid the fallout from the conflict and saudi arabia's crown prince mohammad bin salman plans to launch a second national airline. It is the latest move to diversify away from oil towards a new status as a global logistics hub connecting three continents. You can find out much more about it by heading to monaco dot com slash minute..

donald trump sivan lukens cigna global advisors allen voice burke manhattan district attorney's trump cyrus vance new york President trump lou Myburgh manhattan York Us lou pops James louis lukens tom china james
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

05:53 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"I guess to that point again about these differences in perceptions from within without it's been interesting looking at what wolfgang schauble the president of german parliaments beaten having to say he's talked about again a narrative we've had here in the uk of course it's familiar from the us this question of foreign interference in these processes. He says the dangerous relatively great which is quite striking in a way. What do you make of that. And what do you make of exactly what we're talking though this difference in perceptions even around some of the characters. We're talking about here within without the borders of germany. Well i'd say in some ways they're linked on this overall idea of stability With within germany if you will so sharply his point was more along those lines of these these groups that are trying to feed misinformation in germany and therefore so a certain amount of instability. It's a little bit different. You could argue than say we've seen in the uk or particularly in the us where it was very much directed at you know overturning potentially impacting the election itself in this case. It's a little different. Even i've sharply said it's not clear exactly where they're going. It's not you know even the alternative for germany. If you will. The far right party is not doing that. Well in its polling. It's probably going to do worse this time than it did for years ago. So more than the talk here is about misinformation. Also particularly in sort of minorities or or or citigroup's for example turkish born Citizens in germany or russian speaking citizens in germany. What kind of impact foreign language media are going to have on them instead of these groups that sort of rely more on foreign language media perhaps than they even do on german media. That's where both gunshot concerns really were and in terms of the stability I would just make the point that i think From from an a as well it's interesting. I think you know how this is going to play out in the election. Yes i'm gonna make is gone and there isn't that much worry about the stability of her leaving but the question just of is the christian. Are the christian. Democrats still the stable choice as a party. That is going to be key. Macos erta this one. Time rival of of amun. Lash it in this moment of unity last week and made this point which you imagine what he made many times in the running months that you know. Are you really ready for the green to take over the chancellor like are they you know in that. He felt like this is something that we've seen that they're not you know. The public has decided. They're not yet ready for that. So that will be. I think a key issue in that sense how much. How much change do you really want as it were Do you anglia machias leaving. Perhaps that's enough in. That's keep the christian democrats in charge or do you actually want to brand new party in there and a whole shakeup of the german political system. Really interesting stuff chris and ann. Thank you both motorcycles. Chris mac and before that anna rosbach from cigna global joining us here on the briefing finally on today's program again to explorer rather extraordinary spat between montenegro's former national carrier montenegro airlines and the country's new flag-carrier montenegro our man in the balkans guide loni is standing by on hand. To explain guy always important isn't it's not just a semantic thing you got to know your montenegro airlines from your montenegro's indeed you do montenegro airlines if you try and fly on them at the moment told me it'll be sorely disappointed. Because they went out of business at the end of last year they were state owned airline which should taken tens of millions in state aid from montenegro over the years and the new government when they got in towards the end of last year. One of the first things they did was say. Actually you've taken enough toodle pip montenegro airlines. But because it's terribly important for country of six hundred thousand people to have its own national airline. We're going to start another one and they've just started flying this month. Not as the aforementioned ammo montenegro Which funnily enough as you mentioned. Tom as a legal dispute involved. We tell us more about the nature of this dispute. I gather it's something to do with this With logos trademarks. We're talking about the some eagle and eagle based motif on we if it's the balkans it's got to be an angel. But the tailplane of amazon montana of montenegro airlines they go. And i'm getting a mixed up but you'll having an amendment it doesn't matter the tailplane of montenegro airline's planes. Had this sort of etch sketch kind of representation of eagles. Had you know like you've got to do it in one continuous line It forms the shape of the head of the bird. An i a peak and it was so impressive that the new airline Wish whose name. I've now forgotten. It's monterey and montenegro there. we go They've they've copied the logo. They've set such good logo. We're going to use it to now. You can't really do this. When companies in bankruptcy administration the rules which need to be gone through here and company that's in bankruptcy proceedings has assets on one of those assets. Is its logo and the bankruptcy administrative has said. You can't do this without paying for it. Well yeah there's obviously something here about that old truism what is it guy. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Which kind of get. But it's definitely definitely a new one on me that a company would say well. No you'll branding outstanding ahead of time. That's why we're we're ripping off no likelihood presumably of that defense working What's going to happen. Going well in the entertaining thing is at the moment the new airline's planes montenegro. Planes don't have the logo on the tailplane because they've wet leased them they Planes and crew from from german charter airline. So the moment of you fly on montenegro. You're actually flying on german charter flight..

germany wolfgang schauble montenegro Chris mac uk anna rosbach cigna global montenegro airlines citigroup us loni balkans ann chris montana Tom amazon eagles monterey
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:23 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"Back with the briefing on monaco. Twenty four with me. Tom edwards. We turn our attention to germany now. Where the country is not only seeking a new football manager. After last night's defeat to england just mentioned that but also a new broom. Of course to succeed angle marco as chancellor. Well i'm joined now by monaco's news editor chris geremek and by anna rosenberg. Head of europe and the uk at the political consultancy cigna global. Welcome to you both. Chris let me start with you first of all Bring us up to speed Interesting sort of hints and signals from the latest polling in terms of where things are going with the forthcoming elections. Yes so in terms of the polling ahead of september. It's been interesting to watch over the last Month last few months really. It's it's sort of a two horse race if you will for that. Top position between the ruling christian democrats and the greens. Who are the you know as we've talked about before on this program or in the in the ascendancy and have a good chance of coming second in those elections and really in terms of the movement in the polls to. It's all about those two parties. All the other parties are kind of stable in a lower level even the social democrats around fifteen percent. They've hung around there. But you've seen this swing from his from a sort of high point that you had back in in may where the greens actually were the number one party. It looked like there was all this speculation. They might actually become the largest party in germany. And now we've kind of seen that swing back again. The christian democrats are around twenty eight percent. The greens are backed down at around twenty percent. Which would still be one of the worst results ever for the christian democrats and best results ever for the greens but nonetheless. It's a little bit of that return to normalcy. And just partly this is just a sign of the honeymoon period kind of being over for the greens if you will some natural extra scrutiny on them and their chancellor candidate on bareback. She's had to answer some questions about a book she published and whether there was some plagiarism. In that although it's a little bit dicey it's not. It's not really that serious charge. You know these. These books often are frankly electoral platforms. That aren't you know don't necessarily say very much And at the same time also on the other side the christian democrats have kind of caught themselves after a bumpy few months You know their chance to candidate. I'm in lash. It is appearing more confident. He's appeared jointly with his one. Time rival marco suda last week as they said introduce their electoral platform for the german population. So all of that has kind of you know. Made them help them to sort of refresh their message of if you want stability want the party. That's in power. Pandemic is easing a bid. Vaccines are up. So all of that is kind of helping the ruling party to reestablish a bit of continuity again we on a resume. let me bring you in here. Do you go along with chris. Reading this is as much actually about the sort of reassuring familiarity. Almost of you know what we've got used to. In germany as it is with the additional scrutiny. That's fallen upon the greens. Since they looked to be making strides and yes. I agree although i think that. The current trend in the polling wooster was perfectly predictable when the green spiked earlier in the year. It was clear that they were primarily being so popular. Because they were you know the new kid on the block and paper was a new unknown figure at the time there was a lot of desire for political change and then of course. This was also the time when the kobe pandemic was really. You know pretty bad. In germany. That the vaccinations went under control. The economy was still in lockdown. And now we are in a very different reality. But that was predictable. It was was clear that the nation effort was going to improve. It was also clear that the no the popularity was going to go down once people realize that the greens even though shiny and new on not necessarily the party that will allow them to continue to do what they like. And we'll bring a few restrictions along because ultimately the green transition will mean that citizens have to adjust their way of life significantly. And i think that is starting to dawn on people. And so they're they're also considering alternatives to the greens but it's also important to say that both the greens and the state it would save are appealing to very different electoral groups. The would says well clearly going after the pension is that's always been their core voter base and they're they're going after them quite aggressively and the greens are appealing right now. I'm more to a slightly younger generation. Also a lot of women and families will you let me ask you one other thing which is again sort of prevailing trend. I think we've discussed even on this program. Before which is the sense of an impending not vacuum exactly but some you know somebody to fill some unfilmable shoes in the post merckel era do do you think that any kind of residual concern about that uncertainty. About what that transition never more personal transition almost like has has concerned about that you think diminish somewhat. I don't think that concerned has been particularly large in germany. I think that consent has been more. And they're internationally domestically the german voters and the especially german political actors are quite keen to see. Michael finally stepped down. She has been in power for a long time and even though she's obviously well respected internationally. In germany there is certainly a merckel fatigue that has been around for a while and there is a desire for some kind of change if that actually will lead to change remains to be seen but they're certainly the desire therefore that internationally mocal is of course much liked among certain countries and her stepping down. And you know is seen with some kind of hesitancy however she has seen she has just in. The last two weeks suffered from quite a few international am blows and initiatives that she started didn't really succeed and it just shows now that other leaders are realizing that merkel's gone and she's officially becoming a lame-duck at this point in time and so. I think everyone's ready for the transition workers. Let me bring you back in here..

Tom edwards germany chris geremek anna rosenberg cigna global marco suda monaco marco football england Chris europe uk chris Michael merkel
"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:23 min | 11 months ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing

"Back with the briefing on monaco. Twenty four with me. Tom edwards. We turn our attention to germany now. Where the country is not only seeking a new football manager. After last night's defeat to england just mentioned that but also a new broom. Of course to succeed angle marco as chancellor. Well i'm joined now by monaco's news editor chris geremek and by anna rosenberg. Head of europe and the uk at the political consultancy cigna global. Welcome to you both. Chris let me start with you first of all Bring us up to speed Interesting sort of hints and signals from the latest polling in terms of where things are going with the forthcoming elections. Yes so in terms of the polling ahead of september. It's been interesting to watch over the last Month last few months really. It's it's sort of a two horse race if you will for that. Top position between the ruling christian democrats and the greens. Who are the you know as we've talked about before on this program or in the in the ascendancy and have a good chance of coming second in those elections and really in terms of the movement in the polls to. It's all about those two parties. All the other parties are kind of stable in a lower level even the social democrats around fifteen percent. They've hung around there. But you've seen this swing from his from a sort of high point that you had back in in may where the greens actually were the number one party. It looked like there was all this speculation. They might actually become the largest party in germany. And now we've kind of seen that swing back again. The christian democrats are around twenty eight percent. The greens are backed down at around twenty percent. Which would still be one of the worst results ever for the christian democrats and best results ever for the greens but nonetheless. It's a little bit of that return to normalcy. And just partly this is just a sign of the honeymoon period kind of being over for the greens if you will some natural extra scrutiny on them and their chancellor candidate on bareback. She's had to answer some questions about a book she published and whether there was some plagiarism. In that although it's a little bit dicey it's not. It's not really that serious charge. You know these. These books often are frankly electoral platforms. That aren't you know don't necessarily say very much And at the same time also on the other side the christian democrats have kind of caught themselves after a bumpy few months You know their chance to candidate. I'm in lash. It is appearing more confident. He's appeared jointly with his one. Time rival marco suda last week as they said introduce their electoral platform for the german population. So all of that has kind of you know. Made them help them to sort of refresh their message of if you want stability want the party. That's in power. Pandemic is easing a bid. Vaccines are up. So all of that is kind of helping the ruling party to reestablish a bit of continuity again we on a resume. let me bring you in here. Do you go along with chris. Reading this is as much actually about the sort of reassuring familiarity. Almost of you know what we've got used to. In germany as it is with the additional scrutiny. That's fallen upon the greens. Since they looked to be making strides and yes. I agree although i think that. The current trend in the polling wooster was perfectly predictable when the green spiked earlier in the year. It was clear that they were primarily being so popular. Because they were you know the new kid on the block and paper was a new unknown figure at the time there was a lot of desire for political change and then of course. This was also the time when the kobe pandemic was really. You know pretty bad. In germany. That the vaccinations went under control. The economy was still in lockdown. And now we are in a very different reality. But that was predictable. It was was clear that the nation effort was going to improve. It was also clear that the no the popularity was going to go down once people realize that the greens even though shiny and new on not necessarily the party that will allow them to continue to do what they like. And we'll bring a few restrictions along because ultimately the green transition will mean that citizens have to adjust their way of life significantly. And i think that is starting to dawn on people. And so they're they're also considering alternatives to the greens but it's also important to say that both the greens and the state it would save are appealing to very different electoral groups. The would says well clearly going after the pension is that's always been their core voter base and they're they're going after them quite aggressively and the greens are appealing right now. I'm more to a slightly younger generation. Also a lot of women and families will you let me ask you one other thing which is again sort of prevailing trend. I think we've discussed even on this program. Before which is the sense of an impending not vacuum exactly but some you know somebody to fill some unfilmable shoes in the post merckel era do do you think that any kind of residual concern about that uncertainty. About what that transition never more personal transition almost like has has concerned about that you think diminish somewhat. I don't think that concerned has been particularly large in germany. I think that consent has been more. And they're internationally domestically the german voters and the especially german political actors are quite keen to see. Michael finally stepped down. She has been in power for a long time and even though she's obviously well respected internationally. In germany there is certainly a merckel fatigue that has been around for a while and there is a desire for some kind of change if that actually will lead to change remains to be seen but they're certainly the desire therefore that internationally mocal is of course much liked among certain countries and her stepping down. And you know is seen with some kind of hesitancy however she has seen she has just in. The last two weeks suffered from quite a few international am blows and initiatives that she started didn't really succeed and it just shows now that other leaders are realizing that merkel's gone and she's officially becoming a lame-duck at this point in time and so. I think everyone's ready for the transition workers. Let me bring you back in here..

Biden Tells Intelligence Agencies to Probe COVID-19's Origins

Monocle 24: The Briefing

01:46 min | 1 year ago

Biden Tells Intelligence Agencies to Probe COVID-19's Origins

"Us president joe biden has called on intelligence in the country to redouble their efforts to investigate the origins of the covid nineteen pandemic. The president's ordered a report to be issued within ninety days amid growing pressure from republicans and the broader scientific community which owning us now is more nichols health science correspondent. Dr chris smith also on the line is louis lukens format. Us diplomat now. Senior partner at cigna global advisors. Thank you both for joining us on the program today and lukens actually start with you on this political pressure. I guess that joe biden is perhaps reacting to can you characterize what what. What is that pressure i can. Who are the main players. The main actors here who are low to offer these tough questions. Well martha sure. I would describe it as pressure on joe biden from from other parties to to carry out this investigation i think he genuinely and and his top scientists agreed that they that we need to have a better understanding of where this virus originated and how it originated. He asked president biden s the intelligence community to do an initial report which he was briefed on recently and he was unhappy with the results of that because the intelligence community was split some of the agencies felt that it was a lab accident and others felt that it was more likely animal to human contact and so he is now asked intelligence community to redouble their efforts as you said an in ninety days produce a report i think he recognizes that they may not have a final answer. He he he wants to say. He says he wants to bring us closer to definitive conclusion. He doesn't say bring us to a conclusion. But i think he feels is important that we have a better understanding in order to prevent future pandemics.

Joe Biden Dr Chris Smith Louis Lukens Cigna Global Advisors Lukens President Biden United States Martha
U.S. Sends More Firepower to Middle East

Monocle 24: The Briefing

02:05 min | 1 year ago

U.S. Sends More Firepower to Middle East

"It is a truism of foreign military adventures that getting one troupe. Getting one's troops out rather can be at least as big a challenge as sending them in. The united states has deployed additional aircraft to afghanistan to protect its troops as they packed their kit prior to the anticipated departure later this year nearly twenty years after their first predescessors arrived that the us withdrawal will be popular with. Americans is in little doubt but there are political risks for president. Joe biden as well. Especially if a taliban resurgence this look less like withdrawal than a surrender on joined with more on this bite lukens former. Us diplomat now senior partner with cigna global advisors Lou how worried should the joe biden administration be about the next few months. Obviously what they're keen to avoid is people dredging up all that archive footage of people fleeing saigon by helicopter andrew. Yeah so i mean the irony. Is that in in an effort to withdraw. Our troops were sending more troops in in the short term to secure the the The removal of equipment and the withdrawal of troops but joe biden is definitely determined. Have all the. Us troops almost all us troops out by september eleventh. The real danger. I mean there's two. There's two dangerous here. One is at afghanistan just descends into prolific political turmoil and chaos and the other is at it reemerges as a base for terror attacks on the united states. I think the first scenario. Political chaos in afghanistan. Americans won't care that much about that. There are those within the political and diplomatic establishment. Who will care deeply. But the average american won't care that much. Afghanistan is just too far removed but if the al qaeda and taliban are able to re form the country as a terror basing site An effect terror attacks on american soil. From there that will will will send a strong message to joe biden. That you've got to do something maybe go back in there.

United States Lukens Cigna Global Joe Biden Joe Biden Administration Afghanistan Taliban LOU Saigon Andrew Al Qaeda
Biden announces US will sanction Myanmar's military leaders following coup

Monocle 24: The Briefing

06:53 min | 1 year ago

Biden announces US will sanction Myanmar's military leaders following coup

"Last week's data in myanmar provided the new us administration of president joe biden with its first major foreign policy crisis. We now have an idea of america's response. President biden has signed an executive order imposing sanctions on the coup leaders. This will be followed by measures to block the myanmar's military access to government funds held in the us. Further measures seem likely showed the gionta not to american demands that democratic order be restored one by louis lukens former. Us diplomat now senior partner with cigna global advisors liu first of all this all seem certainly measured against the last four years widely normal. Doesn't it well it does. You're right andrew. It does seem normal and there is a policy process in washington. That was carried out there. Tony blinken and president biden consulted with about this issue and then came to a decision to impose sanctions so very normal. Didn't learn about it by tweet. Sort of back to the good old days of foreign policy. I think not that. I'm wishing to sound overly nostalgic four the immediately preceding four years. But in an instance like this is this orthodoxy helpful. I mean the demand. Maurice generals rather priced this in. Wouldn't they well. The process and the consultant with allies is helpful whether sanctions themselves will be useful remains to be seen sanctions. Tend to have very limited effectiveness and the people who are targeted by sanctions. In this case the military leadership Tend to be able to to be somewhat immune to the effects of the sanctions. They and so the. Us has walk a very fine line in trying to punish the leadership but in a way. That doesn't actually trickle down and really hurt. The the average burmese people who who are responsible for the the off course well just as a general principle then. Is there any reason to imagine that the people behind the coup. D'etat actually care what. The united states thinks that. This point probably not much reason to think that they care you know. China is their number one trading partner. They do roughly three third of their trade with china and the us is not even in the top five list of trading partners So you know it's great that the us has a couple allies on board. And i think the tony blinken talk to his japanese counterpart yesterday to to sort of coordinate a little bit on this but if china is not going to impose sanctions which they won't it really reduces the effectiveness of what the us can do in that especially in that country where we have very few ties. So how much of the american response. So far and i guess what we might still see often. American response is not so much the new. Us administration hoping it can affect an outcome in this specific circumstance but is more trying to set a general tone trying to establish. This is how this administration is going to do business. This is how we're going to react to things. Yeah look. I mean even if even if the sanctions are completely symbolic sends an important message that the that the united states will not tolerate this kind of activity and will work to promote the the sustenance of democratic governments around the world if the united states had ignored the coup in myanmar mar. I think that would send a message to people thinking about overthrowing governments around the world that hey we can do this now and get away with it now. The burmese military leaders may still get away with it remains to be seen whether the us sanctions will have any effect or not but the us had to send a message in some ways. This is a new administration and we're gonna take democracy seriously. How much more. Careful is the united states being about me on mob this time than it might have been during the previous stretch of military rule because in that period of course it did seem like a much more straightforward good guys versus bad guys proposition than you had this. All neha canonized a leader in waiting under house arrest on sang suci Whose stature. I think has been somewhat reduced by her own complicity with the people who've just thrown out of a job. Yeah i mean certainly. Her stature has been diminished over the last years in. Not just yeah. i mean. Basically because of her alignment with the military leaders in sort of her reaction to the the genocide in myanmar. That said i think the united states is trying to look at is not from the perspective of individual personalities but from the perspective of the principles of democracy and our unwillingness or or distaste for To go along with with appearing to support a military coup so we have to come out. The united states had to come out and strongly against this coup and short of military action economic sanctions against the people who perpetrated a coup really. The only way to go for now. The united states does of course have a diplomatic relationship with me on march for the moment at least any way you have been a diplomat serving abroad for the united states in a in a circumstance like this is there anything ambassadors another embassy staff on the ground candu or is it more likely case. They've just been told to make as little noise as they possibly can. Well i think the probably been quite vocal. I think in and you have to walk a fine line. You don't wanna be so vocal against the new leaders in the military that that you get thrown out of the country because certainly that is a possibility now. But you wanna make america's presence known and you wanna know you wanna make america's policies known so my guess is that Certainly through social media which is of limited value in me mark. I think the government has cut down. Cut off a lot of the internet but they they will be trying to work through their networks of of Dissenters and people in civil society to try to get the word out that the united states is with you. And we're working on this. How important is it to the united states to get at least some sort of result out of this. I mean i understand what you're saying about. How the united states is obliged to lay down the law here especially with the new administration but he is there a risk that they are seen to have done exactly that and have not make the blindest bit of difference to anything. Well there is a risk. I mean if if the us government left it as it is now the just the sanctions. That would be a worry but my guess is that Tony blinken will be is embarking on on a of diplomacy with counterparts around the world to try to to you take it to the next level not necessarily only through sanctions through a global reaction against this coup again. It comes back to the challenge. That is hard to do something. The un security council If china doesn't go along with it and china's unlikely to go along with any condemnation of the military leaders in in myanmar But i think tony blinken will certainly be trying to rally allies onto the us side honest

United States Tony Blinken Myanmar Us Administration Of President Biden Gionta Louis Lukens Cigna Global Advisors China Myanmar Mar Joe Biden LIU Sang Suci Maurice Andrew Washington Neha Government Us Government
3 weeks away from US election

Monocle 24: The Briefing

02:43 min | 1 year ago

3 weeks away from US election

"It's now three weeks until the US presidential election. If polls are to be believed, it's now nine thousand nine days until Joe, Biden is sworn in as the forty sixth president of the United States. However, those of us with memories stretching back for years will understand the gravity of the polls ought to be believed qualifier if polls were to be believed in two thousand sixteen President Hillary Clinton. Might now, be running for his second term and Donald Trump's candidacy dimly recalled as a surreal version. So with all due acknowledgement of the folly of tempting fate is anything much different. This time will on joined by Louis Lukens, former US diplomat who has been analyzing the polling data for the political consultancy CIGNA Global Advisors. I'm also joined in the studio by Monaco's News Editor Chris Mc Chris First of all is Biden's Paul lead meaningfully different from Hillary Clinton's. Yes and no and. The Way to answer a question like that let's look at it. This way nationally speaking if you look at the national polls yes, Joe Biden is up. If you by many poles more significantly more significantly than Clinton was at this point in time and he's also been up consistently in the polls more than Clinton was at various points in time over the last few months of, for example, now, according to the realclearpolitics average, which of does a average of all pose. He's up about ten points. That's about three points more than Clinton was at this point in time. But of course to give a brief summary for our listeners of the. Complicated system that is the US we have the electoral college and the idea of that is national polling does not matter. It matters what happens. In two. Thousand Sixteen in Theory New York and California could vote ninety percent for Joe. Biden. But if if Donald Trump managed to snap up a bunch of swing states and battleground states in the middle, he could still win the election and Biden could win the popular vote. What's happening in those battleground states that's a little bit less clear. Biden. Is Ahead. That is true. He's ahead by about five percentage points four point eight percentage points in the key battlegrounds according to real clear politics but Hillary Clinton was ahead by basically the same amount. At this time in two thousand, sixteen, the best example to point that out and this also comes to the question for for Lou about polling. The best example is Wisconsin Clinton led by six points in the polls. Ahead of time, she lost Wisconsin by one percentage point in twenty sixteen. So a five percentage points gain for for Joe. Biden, is still something that could be up in the

Joe Biden Hillary Clinton United States Donald Trump President Trump Cigna Global Advisors Louis Lukens Wisconsin Chris Mc Monaco LOU California News Editor New York Paul
"cigna global" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

07:57 min | 1 year ago

"cigna global" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Trump is being treated for symptoms of the Corona virus in a military hospital outside Washington, D C. New cases have emerged among his top advisers, his campaign manager, along with former counsellor Kellyanne Conway, and at least three Republican senators tested positive. Sedans, Power sharing government and rebel groups formalized a peace agreement today after a preliminary deal was reached in August. It's aimed at ending decades of conflict that's left hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. And tomorrow's NFL match up between the New England Patriots and the Kansas City Chiefs has been postponed until Monday or Tuesday. This after the past confirmed a player has tested positive for the Corona virus on Janine Herbst NPR news Support for NPR comes from Cigna Global Health Service company dedicated to helping people improve their health well being and peace of mind. More informations available at signa dot com. Rocket mortgage, working to help home buyers find a home loan that fits their budget. Homebuyers can't adjust payments, C tax estimates and closing costs all in Realty time. Rocket mortgage rocket can And the listeners of Cake, sweetie Public Radio, That's you and thank you for being here. Mostly clear Skies for the bait Tonight. Lows in the fifties and mostly sunny Sunday highs from the seventies too low eighties at the coast and around the bay to around 90 inland. This's all things considered from NPR News on Michelle Martin Law and Order. We've heard those words a lot in recent weeks, most recently on the debate stage Tuesday night, President Trump tried to paint recent demonstrations over police brutality is the work of the radical left. The vice president. Bridon condemned violence reiterated his support for peaceful protests and for law enforcement. The conversation didn't get much more substantive than that, given the president's own repeated interruptions, which is why we wanted to take some time today to see if we can add more substance to the question of what should happen when demonstrations erupted across the country are their best practices to prevent harm. Well, letting people express themselves. We've called to people who have thought a lot about this surpasses the former police superintendent in New Orleans, Louisiana. He has also served as police chief in Nashville, Tennessee, and his chief of the Washington State Patrol. He's now a professor at Loyola University in New Orleans. Chief Surpass, Professor. Welcome Thank you for joining us. Thank you. And Edward McGuire is a professor of criminology and criminal justice at Arizona State University, and his research focuses on policing and violence, including police response to protests. Professor Maguire. Welcome to you as well. Thank you so much. I'm going to start with you because as you look at what's been happening at protests around the country in the last weeks and months, instances of destruction of property vigilante ism violence between groups violence between police and protesters do you just have some top line? Thoughts about how police departments are handling this moment. Is there something that they've been doing right and is there something that they could be doing better? There's a police chief in three different places as a state police chief, which was responsible for protecting the state capital and the police chief in New Orleans during the occupied New Orleans movement. The question of protest follows very much along the lines as the way police prepare is Professor McGuire and others have said. There's a lot of work done in the front. There's a lot of agreement on terms and conditions of what's expected of both sides of a protest so candidly occupied New Orleans went on for about 10 days as I recall, and there was never a conflict, there was agreement. There was understanding there was talking. There was the belief that everybody was there to achieve the same goal. All of that, though I'm afraid to say to you is distinctly different from when people choose to behave in a way that puts others at risk their body. That person's their property so that I think should be the delineating difference. Protest is not the same as a riot and to deal with protest is not going to be essentially. Always the same way that you have to deal with criminal behavior. Professor McGuire, You know, I think maybe the public might be surprised to know that there is a deep body of research about this very question. But taking the chief's point here, is there some data about the best way to handle what he's calling a riot. I mean, obviously, some protesters would disagree, but for the sake of sort of Our public understanding. Is there some research on this? You know, I think when a crowd event has turned into a full blown riot police largely know what to do in these events, and police know howto have a peaceful protests. The harder part is when you have that Grey Zone in between where you have protests that are largely peaceful, but you have people who are behaving in a violent or destructive manner, and that's where we see these events as being much more difficulty. You want to hear more about that in a minute, Chief? I want to go back to you talk today, but that negotiated management approach that you were speaking about there. I'm not sure a lot of people know about this. You're saying that the negotiated management approach means what? That you're connecting with your talking to the people who've organized a protest and discussing in advance like what's going to happen. Does that still have to think a lot of people feel like these protests? Organic? They just kind of happened? Oh, no. In fact, if you think about the occupy Nola protest, I was the chief. It was literally almost twice a day. The police leadership in the leadership of occupied Poland would have brief meetings to discuss the day's events of the night's events. And it went without injury. It went without incident without arrest. What I'm suggesting to you in the audience is there is a group that infiltrates these well managed protests. Who are not interested in what the protest once are not interested in what the police once and they are very good at infiltrating, striking out melting back. I think that disturbs protesters and if you listen, you'll hear them complain about it. As much as it disturbs the police and citizens in business or in Professor. Where does that comport with your research? I would imagine that that's difficult area to do research on. But do you have any knowledge or sense of that? Like, why do people do that? Like what's their story? You know, we talked to a lot of these folks who are both on the board, peaceful side of crumbs and folks who would be considered agitators. You have really hardcore people who believed to the core of their being that it's morally justify a bit to use violence against the officers or other forms of violence or property damage. And really, you know, we need the criminal justice system. We need to arrest and prosecute those people use them just conventional criminal justice system. You have a peaceful protesters who were never going to throw a rock or a bottle. We're never going to let anything on the problem is that when the police come in and start behaving in a way that the crowd perceived is unfair. There are people in that crowd who will start to instead of siding with the peaceful protesters will side with the more radical protesters who, believing they used violence. And so what I always advised police to do with these types of events is think hard about those people in the middle because you want to win their hearts and minds because you don't want him joining the radicals. You want him to stay moderate and she, you know, police officers want to go home to So I'm thinking that on the one hand responses that seem provocative to protesters, I'm imagining from your standpoint as the leader of the folks who are on the front lines that Their safety becomes important, too. So a lot of the tactical gear and a lot of the equipment and the techniques that I think civilians find intimidating and overbearing. From the standpoint of your officers seems just like common sense, right? I think that's a great question because it strikes to the point that the professor just made and you just made and that's the ability to see things..

New Orleans Professor McGuire professor President Trump NPR News Professor Maguire NFL Kellyanne Conway NPR New England Patriots Janine Herbst Washington professor of criminology vice president Kansas City Chiefs president Poland Washington State Patrol
Trump ends preferential economic treatment for Hong Kong

Monocle 24: The Briefing

05:33 min | 2 years ago

Trump ends preferential economic treatment for Hong Kong

"Taking office in January two thousand seventeen. US President Donald. Trump has spent many of his non golfing hours inventing new ways to pick fights with China in recent weeks. China has made this part of his job a good deal easier in imposing a repressive news channel Security Laura upon Hong Kong. Beijing has presented trump with an opportunity to strike back at China. Foreign actual reason as opposed to an invented or imaginary. Imaginary one and trump appears to have seized it, and made a stream of consciousness at the White House yesterday trump ordered an end to Hong Kong's special status under US law on joined a four more on this by the formulas diplomat Louis Lukens Lou is now a senior partner with Cigna Global Advisors, but spent the early part of his diplomatic career in China. Lou rawls them back to the briefing the president's announcement first of all what practical consequences is likely to have. Thank you, it's great to be back, so the practical consequences that take a little bit of a while to play out, and you really nailed it. Donald trump has been in some ways looking for a fight with China and China has given him a great excuse to ratchet up tensions. Down, trump spend a little bit conflicted on China right because he is really pursued, wanted this trade deal for the last couple of years at the same time he likes to talk tough on China and what we're seeing is the election comes closer and closer and were less than four months out to election day the United States is a bit of an. An arms race between Joe. Biden and Donald Trump both of them, trying to be seen as tougher than the other on China and I think we will see tensions ratchet up over the next four months as November third becomes closer in China becomes the common enemy that both candidates can agree on them. Both try to outdo each other on being tough on. I mean we'll try to be overly concerned about this. Because they ll affected this kind of response in they they they would have assumed that there would be consequences of some sort to imposing this new security lore on Hong Kong. They they will have thought it through obviously and and anticipated. The reaction would be I wonder a little bit of China hasn't overplayed his hand. I think there is such a court. We're seeing more coordinated international response now to China's aggression whether it's military aggression whether it's you know. Intellectual property, theft and and use. Of Technology. We're and then go human rights issues including Hong. Kong and what's happening with the weaker people in northeast in north western China. I think we're seeing. Countries have reached a tipping point and the Corona Virus in China's initial response to it is also leading countries i. think a little bit bolder and a little bit better coordinated in their measures to counter China and China maybe anticipated that in his plan that, but I think what we're seeing now for the first time, certainly in recent history is a better coordinated and methodical approach to China from Western. Allies working together with more of a common purpose I. Think than we've seen in a while a how coordinated can that response be? Though if the United States as led by President, trump applies his usual attention to detail and attention span to it again. Might this be a calculation that China of made that trump as usually his response to everything will have an puff, but signally failed to blow any houses down. Absolutely I think this guy is very possible and I think they'd be trying to get away with what they can before a Joe Biden presidency, which would start next January and I think we will see with the Joe Biden presidency in foreign policy under Joe, Biden of much more concerted effort to coordinate with allies, and to have an approach facing China and Joe Biden has talked about working with the European Union and Canada and Mexico and other allies to to deal with China's trade practices amongst other things. It is the united. States can't do that now or won't do that now. Because President, trump's policy is so sort of sporadic and incoherent, so China may be may see this as a window of opportunity to strengthen their position while they have a president in the White House who is is somewhat focused on China, but not really in the details, and in unable because of his actions over the last three years to really pull together a global coalition. How potentially dangerous is that? The you spoke earlier of China perhaps overplaying their hand way of Hong, Kong is concerned. Is there a concern that if as he suggested, it seems a reasonable analysis. They are trying to make hay you. All the sun is shining where president trump is concerned that they might overplay their hand further with potentially dangerous consequences. Will absolutely, and that's was you know is scary about this time that we're in right now because China, not justice is not just pushing on human rights in pushing on. In commercial interests around the world, but they're also being quite aggressive militarily. India of the south. China Sea and there's always potential for a misunderstanding. Or an accident we've seen this before you remember when they accidentally shot down an American plane that landed in on Hainan island some years ago. It's very easy for a miscalculation to happen, and when tensions are this high to begin with, it makes the diplomatic walk back from any military accidents much much harder to carry out.

China Donald Trump Joe Biden Hong Kong China Sea President Trump United States President Donald Hong Kong White House Lou Rawls Beijing Hainan Island Louis Lukens Lou Theft Cigna Global Advisors India
"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:47 min | 2 years ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"This is true a group of forty genetically modified mice are on board this ship NASA thinks that studying them in space could help lead to therapies for conditions that cause bone and muscle loss on earth the dragon spacecraft with the mighty mice arrives at the space station on Sunday that's today's Bloomberg NJIT stem report I'm Nathan Hager Tom John Lisa thanks so much and I need to know to start your day brunch by interactive brokers their marginal start at three point zero six percent and decrease from large alone values rates subject change learn more at I. B. K. R. dot com slash compare okay president trump will appear in CNN maybe senator Warner won't appear on whatever whatever the the name is in that in the United Kingdom it's different what is the war that the prime minister won't appear with some guy in the BBC Andrew nail it's a tough interview the uproar is the everyone else is done the interview including Jeremy cold and Boris Johnson is avoiding get and yesterday on his program on the BBC Andrew Neil this a broadcaster news anchor issued a challenge to the prime minister Boris Johnson coming to be with him Boris isn't gonna do the interview see compared to a United States which talent in politics broadcast in the United States is it me is it okay if those are respectively Chris Wallace is a fantastic interview for fox thank you for the interview maybe that come with Lynn okay if everyone sat in front of Chris and Chris did a series of leadership Sir why can't come on why comics you got to the interview yeah why can't I stomach the hard questions up particularly about jobs because it is job day and out we are expecting I believe a consensus of about a hundred eighty thousand you can minus forty thousand do two revisions from the strike I'm wondering what's gonna shake the market what's going to shift the narrative and what's the bigger likelihood it we see an upside surprise that forces the fed it's hand a little bit more or downside surprised because people I'm gonna go revisions which is two months look back so you get today's data plus two months adjustment back to me that's just a smooth way to get to what the vector really is I'm gonna go back to yesterday claims two zero three it's so difficult to convince anyone that was saying in the database like the market with initial jobless claims where they are believed to the fat and this comes in the first accommodation whatever the report is at eight thirty if it's signals further fed accommodation what is it a multiple of a mail drop in equities can I go back to the close of C. I. B. say that we used yesterday ninety rate reductions across forty five central banks yeah three twenty nineteen the largest cumulatively cigna global economies received since the financial crisis her ex of that global accommodation yes the costs what's the cost is perhaps long term how much has that pushed up equities a huge question and frankly the fact that it hasn't bled more into the economy from our economic growth does that mean that that they are out of ammunition at the end of the time we got left let's stream Paul Sweeny here are good calling what's what's with him he gets to darken the door once again when they come on and give us a break we were in Boston yesterday friend yeah how sweet he is my co host you might call you early Sweeney isn't here I for they shall cover no just so it drifts in okay Amazon millions of people watch was a headline in the United Kingdom do you agree with the pundits yesterday John this is just a technical thing that my friends three stats may please send one happy with it the resolution the internet connection in rural parts of United Kingdom is just not quick enough to stream a live event and there was this little bit of a delay the people really dumb yeah yeah you know of about forty five seconds of it happening on the field on the page and getting to the T. V.'s that raises a really interesting question which is if streaming services cannot sufficiently provide sports viewing right then is the hope it's been baked into the valuations of some of the streaming services absolutely I am in New York City a miracle fantastic be quick broadband that constrains sports on Hulu without a problem no problem whatsoever John when you have when you live in a property where you can see the East River the Hudson River in the statue of liberty the same time white your son he does that your view is better than mine it's full Ivan the concentric hock if you want to do this I can we still live on the go twenty second he's got the part time your apartment is better than my apartment and if we do.

NASA two months forty five seconds zero six percent twenty second
Sondland Delivers for Democrats With Bombshell Testimony

Monocle 24: The Globalist

01:43 min | 2 years ago

Sondland Delivers for Democrats With Bombshell Testimony

"This debate. Shaky performance where he stumbled through. Most sentences has not done him any favor. I this is all happening as well as the potential late entry bed of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg looms in the background. There are seventy five days to go until the first caucus in Iowa and a lot can change until for Monaco in Los Angeles. I'm Kirloskar rebellion. Thank you a Lotta well we can now hear from Lewis look and he served as deputy chief of mission of the US embassy here here in London but he's now senior partner at Cigna Global Advisors. I'm delighted to say. He joins us in the studio. And you're listening to that but we'll come to the clearly very lively debate right in the moment but first we do have to deal with this impeachment testimony I is explosive number of revelations that came out from ambassador. Gordon Sunland saying saying that he was instructed by trump's personal lawyer Rudy. Giuliani Giuliani to put pressure on Ukraine. Well not only that. He was instructed by Rudy Giuliani. Hey but that a lot of other top officials were completely aware of what was happening. Mike Pompeo Vice President Pence Amongst others chief of Staff Mike Mulvaney so he he was is clearly willing to share responsibility for this scheme Broadly across the top level government. What will be the effect of his testimony? Well it's hard to say I mean I. I think it was a it was a strong day for the Democrats yesterday. And after a week of you know very methodical but somewhat UN Sort of unspectacular testimony from career government employees having someone who was much more closely aligned with president trump who is a Republican usual defenses fences that trump throws. He can't throw it Gordon Sunlen made it a very impactful day. What do you think is going to be the effect on the impeachment itself Given the fact that many people have said this season is this may get so far but it will be very very hard to impeach the president successfully while the president will clearly be impeached in the house and the question is what happens happens when it goes to the Senate and I'm not sure that yesterday was a strong enough day for the Democrats that they would sway any Republican votes in the Senate so far my impression is that the Republicans gins are solidly behind President Trump. I haven't seen any cracks in that facade yet. We'll be strong enough to get the Republicans to change their mind once a question and I'm not sure anything will be at this point point. I think they've they've sort of made their decision and they're going to stick with it regardless of the evidence. Okay well. Let's move on to the democratic debate. I mean it was a difficult difficult night if you were intending to try and get a message across because the headlines have been so heavily dominated by Gordon Sundance testimony to the impeachment inquiry. How do you think the candidates tried to cut through it while? It's an interesting because I think there is less There are fewer attacks of the candidates on each other. There were some but they seem more. We're united in trying to start focusing on president trump. They've got a long road ahead of them. The Democrats there are still a lot of candidates. They're only ten on stage last night but they're still about twenty candidates and and they can people continue to join the race even at this late date and I. I think there's a realization that they're going to have to coalesce around a candidate eight sooner rather than later and start focusing on not just laying out their policy vision but making the strong case for why they're candidate. Whoever that ends up being is a better candidate tended to lead the country then president trump how damaging is it for the Democrats to not have one strong leading candidate as our correspondent reported and in in that case there it seems as if Joe Biden Star is fading somewhat but there's no clear emerging voice? I think you're raising his stars fading. He came into the race with much greater name recognition than any of the other candidates but he continues to Sort of performing a lackluster manner and stumble. We'll he. He remains very strong candidates in in older democratic circles. But he's got a lot of challenges who are very youthful and energetic. Jedinak coming up behind him. I think I don't think it necessarily hurts the party at this stage to have not coalesced around one candidate but I think by the end of December early early January. They will really want to narrow the field down to. I'd say five or six top candidates and Really start focusing on hammering Out Their policy differences to the Democratic voters. Have a clear choice going into the year. That's that's a point that a lot of people seized opponent isn't it yes. We have a world wide range of of candidates but we also have among those kinds of that's very widely ranging messages and ideas and political positions. How much damage could is that different? Those differences make to the Democrats chances of actually being able to agree on candidate. And who can who can adequately in successfully Sakon trump. Yeah nothing there. Clearly two sides of the party there's more progressive side represented by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and then the more more moderate side of which Pete Buddha judge in Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are part and I think the danger. The party is that this happened to Secretary Clinton when she was running against Donald Trump. Is that the primary process pushes the party too far to the left and then in a general election some of the positions of candidates have staked out during the primaries. Come back to haunt them because they are really to the left of what the majority of American people want want and that's what they have to try to avoid the next couple of months. Louis Lukin thank you very much indeed for joining us own monocle. Twenty four still to come on today's program why the sense is catching up with net afflicts that Isis business news and we have a look at Thursday's newspapers too but I for the time seven thirty here in London. Eight thirty if you're listening in Zurich a quick summary of some of today's these other news

President Trump Democrats Giuliani Giuliani Joe Biden London Michael Bloomberg New York City Senate Vice President Mike Pompeo Iowa Gordon Sunland Gordon Sunlen Secretary Clinton Gordon Sundance Los Angeles Cigna Global Advisors Louis Lukin Monaco
"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:23 min | 3 years ago

"cigna global" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Talking about the weather. Cocktail of Arctic weather up. Talk about but weather. No. I mean, we really have had a pretty easy winter Sasser ruining. Why would you say that allows day a national broadcast? I read the weather forecast. Don't blame me. Don't blame me. Don't tempt fate. Like, all right. That. Yes. I am US China trade concerns be better. Let's hope at some point. We can get some kind of negotiations fascinating story but hit by him human capitals. Kyle bass he's going to be on it a little bit to talk about this hedge fund guy. He's got a Bloomberg opinion piece about how President Trump has China exactly where he needs it. And he's going to explain why. And I think how he lays it out makes complete sense to me, it's a very provocative piece. The other thing that really caught my eye today. And I know yours to colleges last year. Forty seven billion dollars raised from mostly alum big check several more than several a bunch of hundred million dollar plus gifts, then ninth consecutive year of record capital raises. And I just want to say, and we'll get to this. And then we'll get to the markets. But there's a great story all more than two. And it tells you about this isn't the huge apple campus that they just built this is something very different quite a contrast. And it's just a fascinating story. He's along to talk to us about that. All right. Let's talk about the markets because looking at the trade voices in my ear. I am too. Coven through for Denver, the SMP, essentially flat. The Dow essentially flat, the NASDAQ, essentially flat. So what gives Vincent neurology. Jason. What are you saying? Thence? What do you make of this flat trade from the equity market Dave can speak to that better than I? But I think what basically equity markets are saying, let's wait and see what goes on with the shutdown. We talked about their Friday when I came in here and everybody was all probably about it. And the last reports I saw before I came in here was it doesn't look good fell apart over the weekend. That's right. We're all like, it's gotta be great Vinci. Like, whatever you're the one who actually came in and said, our trader was positioning asking about the fed doing something, very different. Come you? Yes. And that was a rate cut that was a rate cut was. So we'll see how that pans out. That was that was a big options. Tree that went on on Friday. What's going on today is mostly a dollar emerging story the ban the big talk? We are hearing from people is this is an interest rate differential story between the fed and other central banks. That's not exactly true. What it really is. Is that there from the beginning of this year? People had liked emerging markets. That was was the it was the trade to get into opposite of last year. Actually, I started in two eighteen doing the same thing and got burned liquor dollar was helping out. Yes and got burnt and then. Soon as the fed put on that cautionary tale. Markets got nervous that we're going to see a slow down and global growth the slow down and global growth prompted an exit from those emerging market currencies and commodities, and that's lifted the dollar, so if you look at a chart of the JP Morgan emerging market index alongside the Bloomberg dollar index. It's exactly perfect brilliant short. We see the dollar go up and down. And again, I would say I'd send it to you. But you won't be able to spell just pulling up the dollar index, and I was looking at the emerging markets index. Right. So what you're saying is you're seeing the inverse correlation inverse correlation dollar right means we emerging market. And it's a brilliant divergence at it happens pretty much at the beginning of this. We should point out at the J P Morgan index tracks bonds, correct? Is that what we're talking about events. Yeah. Okay. So. Stocks. So we have to take both sides equation. Ghastly, so what is the equity trading today? Dave. Good question. I mean, it is a market really looking for direction. I mean issues that Vincent talked about certainly front and center and just the lack of earnings reports. I mean, we had one company in the S and P five hundred come up with quarterly figures before the opening bell. It's the Tisch family's holding company Loews and that stocks down more than six percent, thanks to an unexpected loss catastrophe issues at its insurance business CNA financial which also traits publicly. They had a loss at diamond off-shore drilling another unit that has its own publicly traded shares. So, you know, not well see, but that's not enough to really kind of give you a market. And if anything, you know, some continuation of recent earnings related moves, you take a look at Kotei as an example was. One of the stocks and moved on earnings last week, and it's up again today. Fact, it has the biggest gain and I wonder if so where are we in terms of earnings how far are we in? And how we done in terms of earnings. My understanding is earnings have been pretty historically the same in terms of beats but revenues a little bit light in terms of beating expectations were at about the two-thirds Mark when it comes to companies reporting for the fourth quarter, you're looking at profit growth something like thirteen and a half percent. But really Carol the stories about what's happened to estimates. The way that they'd come down. Now, looking at a drop in first-quarter earnings for the S and P five hundred that's. As far as the second quarter. Goes you gone below two percent. So, you know, there's a lot of references to earnings recession showing up an analyst research, especially Morgan Stanley. Mike wilson. That strategist he's had a recession call now since basically November, and it looks like the odds of it panning out are going up. What's the most interesting thing you heard from you trader buddies today? It was an interesting story came out of cross-border capital that said the tightening financial conditions financial conditions of the tightest since they've been since the financial crisis, and they suggest that that is going to bring potentially what Dave was just talking about a recession puff potential for the second quarter of this year. They expect things will pick up in the second half of this year. But tightening financial conditions was what Powell referred to at the last meeting when he did that about face from the December meeting, and again that that move was something I'd never seen in almost forty years of watching the fed. And so something dramatic happened to spook those people on that board. And that is I think where we saw it. It's interesting because I'm looking at F Conon our terminal, right? Help me out. Guys. I mean, it's up. So does that mean I thought that usually means financial conditions have gotten easier? Yeah. This is in the right direction. But the real question is what specifically are people focusing on at this point because. Yeah, you have to figure it's really market driven the S and P five hundred is part of it. We've seen that index bounceback. So it's what in particular. Yeah. This terrible in December. And I think I don't think it's the overall conditions that we're looking at the bank's balance sheets, and that lending sort of especially in the leverage little market just dried up completely. And that's the thing that maybe of spook the fed. Vince Cigna global macro strategies for Bloomberg. Dave Wilson stocks editor for Bloomberg. Thank you both so much date. You'll be back with us in a bit for your chart and stock of the day. Let's get a check on roll the national news headlines. Let's check in with Nancy Lyons..

fed Bloomberg Vincent Dave Kyle bass apple J P Morgan Nancy Lyons US China Loews Kotei Dave Wilson JP Morgan Jason Vinci
Will the government shutdown again before the midterms?

Bloomberg Markets

00:51 sec | 3 years ago

Will the government shutdown again before the midterms?

"To get your thoughts on a government shutdown. We're hearing rumors that again, we hear about that every year around this time does anyone care. I know our rates guys care. I feel really bad for the Park Rangers. Because those are the guys who always women and men who always get hosed it, even when we do have a government shutdown. It never seems to last a very long period of time because politicians get together and realize how bad it looks on both sides of the aisle, and Trump has said he doesn't mind he does the it goes back and forth with things like that. I think I think they really need to grow up and realize that this is money already spent that they have to pay for its future expenses stopping babies and get on with it. All right, some wisdom from Vince. Cigna global macro strategist grow up congress and get with the

Donald Trump Park Rangers Vince Congress