20 Episode results for "Christopher Newport university"

Michael Mulryan, Christopher Newport University  Moral Education as a Solution to Social Division and Political Polarization

The Academic Minute

02:30 min | 5 months ago

Michael Mulryan, Christopher Newport University Moral Education as a Solution to Social Division and Political Polarization

"Political polarization isn't new. I'm dr lynn. Pascarella president of the association of american colleges and universities and today on the academic. Minute michael moore ryan associate. Professor of french in french literature at christopher newport university tells tale of the past to show similarities to today's climate political position in western society was just as prevalent over two hundred years ago as it is today one key figure from the french revolution sought solution to the havoc wreaked by such division. Louis avesta maxine was literally author journalist and politician who is best known today for his moving descriptions daily urban life in paris during the last quarter of eighteenth century witness and of the violence of the french revolution having just escaped the guillotine blade for public posing hopes and the jacob benz political fanaticism. He's been sympathetic. Laboring poor's plight but was baffled by their participation acts of atrocity during the reign of terror he sought to both understand eliminate the moral void that could have caused such evil. This is why he wrote a treatise on moral education for the people in eighteen. O one at the time of the points ascent to power a colleague. I recently edited and translated this previously unpublished as script messier. Envisioned public school system. That taught interdisciplinarity critical thinking but also morality and religion. He wanted student stack morally because it was the right thing to do and not in order to impress or they had alterior motives in order to teach this brand of morality. Maciej showed how to apply emmanuel conce ideas and moral philosophy and behavior in a way to make them accessible to a larger public. Nazism ultimate goal was to help form a moral citizenry as a vanguard for the survival of healthy republic. He attempted to demonstrate how it can teach young people to understand the dangers associated with a naive belief in absolutes be they religious philosophical or political and the various types of nessim. That the unleash that was michael ryan of christopher university. You can find this other segments and more information about the professors at academic minute dot. Org production support for the academic. Minute comes from a ac and you advancing liberal learning and research for the public good.

dr lynn Pascarella association of american colleg michael moore ryan two hundred years Louis avesta maxine jacob benz christopher newport university emmanuel conce paris messier Maciej christopher university michael ryan
Virginia wins ... in basketball, but state leaders are still underwater after February scandals

Meet the Press: The Lid

04:40 min | 2 years ago

Virginia wins ... in basketball, but state leaders are still underwater after February scandals

"Welcome to the lead from meet the press. I'm Carrie, Dan. Okay. I swear I swear that I was planning to talk about this. Anyway, today, regardless of the outcome of you know, any sporting events, but before I tell you about a new poll in Virginia. I gotta take a moment one shining moments. In fact to congratulate my al-matar UVA on winning the NCAA men's basketball tournament. I also have some personal news, which is that my heart rate has finally returned to a healthy range after two consecutive games that dang near killed me. And every Virginia fan out there as the kids say why who off so yes for Jinya. There's some good news for fans of the home team. But there's also some not so great news. If you are a leading Virginia politician because chances are that you've seen your political life pass before your eyes recently and a new poll. Shows that it's kind of a mixed bag for democratic governor Ralph Northam, whom you might remember from a huge scandal back in February which was approximately eleven billion news cycles ago, north, of course, in February admitted that he wore black face as a young man that prompted calls for his resignation. Remember this for at least a few days until his likely successor viewed as an up and coming African American democrat in the state Lieutenant governor just in Fairfax faced allegations of sexual assaults. Oh, yeah. And then the third possible democrat in line the attorney general also admitted to wearing black face in the past and then well nothing really happened north decided to hunker down. And wait it out refused to resign, and everyone is still in their jobs. So what do residents of the great Commonwealth of Jinya think about all of this? Well, first of all, there's not an overwhelming call at least right now for Ralph Northam to resign. A new poll from Virginia's Christopher Newport university finds that he very very slight majority. Fifty two percents of Virginia voters say north should stay. That's perhaps the good news for the governor. Although that's not great for being the good news. The bad news is that his unfavorable rating has doubled from twenty five percents to forty nine percent since December which puts his favorability rating at forty percent, which is lower than Donald Trump's approval rating in Virginia, which is a state that has been trending blue. So what about Lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax? Well, the sexual assault allegations have remained in the news. But at least as of now there also is an overwhelming pressure for him to resign forty-two percent of Regina voters. Want him out? That's the same share who. That about north them, by the way. Well, forty five percent say he should stay. But Fairfax is disapproval rating also more than doubled. So did Torney general Mark herrings, which if you're keeping score at home is the other black faced guy, which is a very unfortunate way to have to describe anybody. Now Republicans had been very hopeful that all of this was going to boost their chances at the ballot box for control of the state house. That's because Democrats are within striking distance of winning enough seats to get majorities in the Virginia house and Senate. Butts the poll finds the Democrats have a teeny edge when it comes to whether voters want Democrats or Republicans in control, and they also by the way, say that the Democratic Party over the Republican party is the one that cares. More about the working class, the poor African Americans and kids. So honestly, there's no real good news or particular honor for pretty much anyone in these poll results, although the status quo seems to be at least for now poised to stay where it is on the bright side just about an hour away from the state house in Richmond Virginia in beautiful Charlottesville, all the who's in whoville are having one. Shining moments. Reached. That's it for us if you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing, you can add meet the press the lid to your flash briefings on Amazon, Alexa, enable devices or just download us as a free podcasts.

Virginia Justin Fairfax Ralph Northam Dan Jinya Richmond Virginia NCAA Donald Trump basketball Democratic Party Fairfax Christopher Newport university Charlottesville attorney Mark herrings assault Senate
Retire to Williamsburg Virginia

Move or Improve

24:44 min | 8 months ago

Retire to Williamsburg Virginia

"Furry and welcome to move improve with Debbie on Debbie Miller and I am pleased to. Welcome Ellen Smith guided today she is going to participate in one of our sessions that were doing on different places around the country to retire to and She actually is the owner and principal broker of Williamsburg Realty in guess where Williamsburg Virginia now I don't want you to think she's GonNa do a sales pitch because to me a realtor knows the area the best, and that's the best kind of person to talk to and Allen's been in the real estate business for about twenty years. Now, she's lived in Williamsburg for ten years and before that she was in old, town Alexandria. So she knows a lot of history. But I wanted to have her come on because she knows the neighborhood she knows the area she knows the history she knows places to go and things to do. She knows prices and I know how Popular Williamsburg is for retirees especially from in in the northern Virginia area, they wanna stay close to DC but they wanNA, have the Williamsburg Comfort. So welcome Ellen to the show. Thank you so much for having me Debbie. No problem with let's let's get started right away. 'cause we got a lot to cover and okay. Yeah. The devil listeners about Williamsburg what what sets it apart what makes it so interesting? Well Debbie many reasons why people choose to call Williamsburg Virginia home. I would have to say that first and foremost Williamsburg is a beautiful college town filled with a rich history and old world charm yet, it has all the modern conveniences that any other town does. So some would say that it's the best of both worlds. Interesting. Okay. So what what college is obviously, the College of William and Mary is down there. Yeah. What else is is that the main center of everything for people there are there other universities close by? We actually have other universities. We have Christopher Newport University in Newport News, and we have Thomas Nelson, community college we have Old Dominion nearby. So there are lots of Nice colleges and remember visiting Christopher Newport, and Odu when my kids were looking at colleges and Very very nice area but So what what about the weather talked to people about their tired of the snow and they wanNA move someplace a little warmer are they going to get that? Absolutely, I'd love to talk about the weather. We have a moderate climate. Most of the year Debbie I would say that you could probably play golf nine months out of the year. It's cold in December. January February into March with a high in the fifties lows in the thirties or forties and the rest of the year. It's probably between the sixties and eighties. So very moderate but July and August are hot and humid Kinda like DC weather. Yeah. You can't escape it but yeah. Is there if you're coming from Florida than might seem like a A. That's right. We. Actually do have people moving from Florida. Because Yeah, they can't they. You know I find the people who moved to Florida can take it for a short time like a couple of years, and then they just can't handle the humidity and the flooding and all that stuff. So. Of them like four seasons, they really enjoy the four seasons and if you've grown up in the DC area, you're used to that and it's hard to adjust to just having at one temperature all year round. So to speak wall tells Barrett is, are they high low? What you know what's the advantage to moving there at to save any money on taxes? Yes. Our taxes are very reasonable in James City County for example, which includes most of this area. They are point eight four per hundred assessed value. So for example, on a four hundred thousand dollar house, your taxes would be over three thousand a year. So that's very reasonable and in the city of Williamsburg, the taxes are even lower their point six of hundred of assessed value. So yeah, very reasonable. And I guess one of my questions is going to be I. I know what? You don't get up here for four hundred thousand. So right I dried, right. You can get something nice here for four hundred, thousand. Yes. I'll bet you can't hear what about the cost of living is it in the middle or lower or higher than? Well you know that's a good question I would say that Williamsburg has a fairly low cost of living. If you look at utilities transportation groceries, all of those are lower than the US average but we are not considered a low cost area I mean we have so much to offer here and we have the infrastructure, the beautiful location. So it's not low costs. So the housing costs would be the biggest part of that. That would probably make it a little bit above average. But it's still a good value. It sounds like, oh, absolutely yes. For everything you get here. Yeah. Low crime low taxes I mean I could go on and on. Well. So let's talk a minute about the walkability. Is it pretty much the kind of town where you could walk to places because I know a lot of baby boomers that I work with are looking for places where they can walk and they don't have to always be driving around is that or do you need a car and or what kind of transportation is available? well, we have communities and neighborhoods where you can walk to shops and restaurants, and we have one of our fifty five plus gated communities where you can walk to the grocery store and restaurants. However, for most of the communities, it is easier to have a car You can live in a place called new town, which is more like city living, and you can walk to restaurants and shops there, but we have buses and trolleys, and you know plenty of ways to get around. And I just want yeah. While we're talking about like how close everything is I just wanted to mention also about our medical facilities, we have wonderful hospitals here. because. I and awesome. Sorry. Oh, go ahead. Yeah. Great. People I always tell them. You know how far aways closest hospital how far are you going to have to go if you have an emergency because you don't think about that when you're younger but then when you get older and if you have a stroke or fall or whatever you need to get to the doctor pretty fast. So there's good hospitals and doctors around down there. Absolutely, we have wonderful medical facilities and doctors, and because Williamsburg is such a big retirement destination, the healthcare industry is booming here. We have highly rated five star hospitals, including riversides and Tara Doctors Hospital and just put it in perspective Debbie. You can be almost anywhere within Williamsburg from point a to point b within twenty five minutes. So no matter where you live in Williamsburg you're going to be close to a hospital and we have great doctors absolutely wonderful doctors here. Well, that's good to know. So do you do you have a rush hour? You know what? Yes, there is a rush hour on I sixty four but not if you're in Williamsburg there's maybe a little bit more traffic on one of our connecting roads of one, ninety nine. You will find some more traffic there in the afternoons maybe around five or six o'clock but it's nothing like a big city at all and it's not like a parking lot on the main road during that timeframe. No not at all, I'm having troubles issue men Helen. What? Shopping and restaurants, and there have art museums or nightlife what would people do while they're? Well there is so much to do. We have everything from cute little shops and colonial Williamsburg to more modern shops in a place called new town, which is kind of the center of town. We have outlet malls we have all the modern conveniences and we have wonderful restaurants coming from Old Town Alexandria. I thought I would be disappointed. because. I'm such a Foodie. I'm very happy with with the choices we have here we have five star elegant and we have casual places and even food trucks and Yeah. Dining endless that makes it. Yes. It makes it really nice absolutely, and there are yeah art museums and lots of history you know we have The colonial Williamsburg, historic area, of course, and there's a Jamestown settlement history museum and I have to mention the musk rally that has world class exhibits are, and we have art galleries and we have even a musical museum here so. There's a lot here. I wouldn't say Williamsburg is a hot nightspot though I mean most people if they're going to go out and and party into the we hours of the morning, it's not gonna be in Williamsburg, it'll probably be enrichment. Newport news but and Williamsburg. It's quiet after nine or ten at night, which is fine for some retirees so. By the time you know if your bedtime is ten o'clock, it's okay. You know if you WANNA stay out late like you said, go into Richmond is always something available there for sure. That's right. But we also have things like Campbell Theater dinner theaters. Virginia. Symphony we have the Ferguson Center for the Arts at Christopher Newport University in fact I go there for plays and concerts and in the Jersey boys is coming up soon I'm going to that and sound of music and we'd have Huge concerts in Virginia beach. So I love rock concerts. So I go to a lot of those in Virginia beach and that's about an hour and a half from here. Oh well, that's good because I know ferrall is having a a big three day bash enough Jones beach coming up so So tell me why would somebody want to retire to Williamsburg? If they're you know making a decision obviously, it has lots to to decide about but you work with clients who are making move. What is the main reason? Do you think made one or two reasons that they are doing it? Why are they? Using Williamsburg over something else. Well you know people just love Williamsburg because we have everything here yet it still has a small town feel and we have breathtaking scenery all kinds of activities, rivers, beaches, golf dining shopping are great, and all of these gated communities that we have here have their own clubs and Events and Fifty five plus commute their over forty clubs and the people are friendly here because everyone has come from somewhere else hardly anyone is from Williamsburg. So everyone makes friends quickly and easily. So when people come here, they see how friendly does it's like being back in the south and I can say that because I grew up in Georgia. So it's very friendly here. That's awesome. I i. think that's always a big plus I always tell people to go spend some extended time not only in the community they're thinking about but just driving around go to the grocery store how much things cost and it gives you a feel. For what places really like a aside from like salesperson saying, yeah you want this community or whatever. So right what are some of the price points of various housing like what would you pay for a two bedroom condo versus? You know a four bedroom house I mean, what can you get something decent for three hundred or five, hundred, thousand that sort of thing. Yeah. Yes. You can. You can buy a condo anywhere from the two hundred dollars to one and a half million. You can buy a patio home from the twos to the like maybe seven hundred you can buy townhomes in. The two and three hundred. You can buy single family homes from the to hundreds to the two million. We have a lot of different types of housing here and we have gated communities fifty five plus communities, and it's Williamsburg's always voted one of America's favorite retirement destinations and we we'll so many nice communities. So which which style of housing seems to be the? Most popular is, do people really want a condo where they don't have to deal with anything or do they like the single family patio home in a gated community and somebody else takes care of the ARD that Clinton thing a lot of them want lower maintenance homes and a lot of them want level homes or at least to have the master bedroom on. The first floor, and we have that in these communities like we have governor slant at Two Rivers, which is a private country club community, very exclusive with Tom Fazio Golf Course and dining full service marina than we have kingsmill, which has have the LPGA for many years and they have superb amenities and restaurants on site and and it's right on the James River. So. Beautiful you'd that's why. You don't have to leave the community you can just stay there. No. It's Like living in a resort and then the fords colony, which has over three thousand acres, golf courses, mostly single family homes with restaurants, country club, and then for those who want to really downsize, we have these fifty five plus communities in our major community where we sell is colonial heritage, which is fifty five plus active adult. So it's not a senior community. By any means, these people are active there over forty clubs and they're busy. That's what are some of the clubs and they have a most of these places have like a fitness center and a community center, and then they have bridge I have friends who moved down to Florida and she's never home because she's always out doing something and It never ceases to amaze me all the different choices you have. You go crazy trying to it down, but there's some things. And they do. They do have the clubhouse and they have all kinds of things. Colonial heritage for example, has travel club and wine and dine. Lunch Bunch Book Clubs You could go on and on with with things they do but really they take really nice trips with their travel club and they have Men's clubs and singles clubs and it just it goes on and on. Well, that's great because. If you can't find something to do that. It's your fault not because. That's right Debbie that is the truth you can stay as active as you want. So what are I know? We talked a minute about some of the places to see in and around Williamsburg but are there any like man -tations around or things like that where we're talk about the history of the co-? Absolutely we have so much I mean you of course, you have colonial. Williamsburg. which played a significant role in the American revolution and you if you look waves Berg that forms the historic triangle together with Jamestown and Yorktown, and the heart of all that is. Colonial Williamsburg, which is a historic district but also it's like a Living History Museum because you actually have actors they're in period costume who showed how what it's like on a daily basis in colonial life there in the streets and the taverns stores, they have workshops and in addition to that, we have all kinds of parks and museums and churches, and of course college. College William and Mary and we have the beauty of the colonial parkway and James River your town beach hominy revolver. So there's so much to see in you're close to Virginia Beach Richmond and Washington DC and Forget. The grandchildren right. If you have grandchildren and you're retiring here we have busch. Gardens. Water country. Farmers Market. Awesome awesome. We'll speaking of farmers markets. Are there any specialty items food wise that people would WANNA make sure. Oh, you gotta try the such and such down there in Williamsburg. Yes, we have excellent restaurants in fact whenever I have clients here I give them a restaurant list. Oh, because have so many nice restaurants in my favorite in places way point It's very European and it's just excellent. The chef there chef Hans Schodler used to be at the Williamsburg Inn and he was a chef there for many years and has. Even, been a chef for presidents, but we have other restaurants, likely Jakko which France and Fat Canary which is very Very famous because it's right there and merchant square and the Williamsburg in you have to see the waiver again of course, the Queen stayed there a few years back. There, which is, yeah I'm sorry. Do you have to Curtsey when you go in because? Oh Yeah I guess when she was there, some people probably did and you've got the law under, which is Spanish have all kinds of things steakhouses. A opus nine is kind of like Ruth's Chris are answered a ruth's Chris, and we have a place called a chef kitchen where you can watch them cook in front of you and there has. Yeah. Yes. So just great places we have a Greek kitchen too, which is fabulous and little pubs like the hounds pub. If they really want something historic could go people could go to the Christiana Campbell Tavern and see what it was like eating back in the colonial days. So, do you have on not recreation historic places but real historic places you know like plantations and things like that that actually are not reproductions. They are the real saying, yes. Yes, we do w we have the governor's palace. We have Jamestown settlement we have a place called the George with house which was built in the seventeen hundreds and George. With was one of the signers of the Declaration of independence. We have Bruton Parish Episcopal Church, which is famous and we have the College William and Mary. Boy There's a lot. It would. This is not a weekend trip for sure. Well a lot of people enjoy staying here for a week I. Stay busy. Yeah. I'm taking it. There's a lot of hotels in the area where people could stay for an extended visit if they wanted to really check out the the area. Absolutely, there are some nice hotels here I mean, of course, the best place would be the Williamsburg Inn it's beautiful and there's also place call wed more place which is out by the Williamsburg winery, and that is just a charming place to stay, and we have a lot of other hotels around and kingsmill. For example, has resort cottages ever resort program there. So you can stay at kingsmill and there are towns, shares timeshares at Ford's colony so you could stay there. and. We have hotels, Hiltons and. Well it sounds like there's no excuse for not coming. That's right. That is true. Topic of stain for Awhile, where would be the closest airport? Let's somebody's flying up from Texas or California and wants to fly in and see things where would be the closest airport that they would fly into. Well. If they would probably fly into Richmond or to Williamsburg Newport News International Airport, they're both international airports Waynesboro Newport News airports about thirty minutes away from where I am, and there's also Richmond, which is my personal favorite which forty minutes away because you can just pull right up and you know Valley Park and run in. You know it's just a charming small airport. Absolutely. Well, I can tell by your enthusiasm that you're glad you moved to Williamsburg I. Think it's obvious because you have been there ten years but what's your favorite? About the era I mean I'm making you narrow it down to one but if you have to it's OK. Okay well, that is so tough. Yeah. That's so tough deal because I love so much about Williamsburg but I love that I live on a creek in kingsmill which runs into the James River. I, love being near the beach we have our own beach in Kingsmill I love having the Williamsburg winery close by all the amenities the ability to just jump in the car and go to. Concerts and theater, and Christmas, is absolutely gorgeous with horsedrawn carriages and lights and I love sitting outside at restaurants on a nice day and and you know we have another little airport called the Williamsburg Jamestown airport and you can go there and have lunch and watch the small planes. So I like doing that to my goodness there's so many things. It's like having a master list just from this. Is, but so 'til. 'til the listeners ellen how they can get in touch with you. If they're thinking about moving to Williamsburg and need somebody who really has the expertise to show them around figure out from, they can afford what kind of lifestyle are you looking for give the website and maybe an email address that would be awesome and people could contact you. If they're insurer, it sounds to me like most everybody already knows about Williamsburg but I wanNA make sure that people who are in other areas would also be able to find out and they contact you and Allen's not a sales pitch e type person she loves the location and she's happy to share her excitement about the area with you so I feel confident that. She's going to do a great job showing you around, but you go ahead and give us the website and an email address ellen. Sure. The website is www dot williamsburg realty of the a that's Oh F., B. A. dot com. So Williamsburg Williamsburg Realty of VA, dot com, or you can even call us at the office My email address is ellen at Williamsburg, realty of via Dot Com? Our office number is seven, five, seven, nine, zero, three, zero, four, five, zero. That's absolutely great and Alan. I'm so glad you were able to take some time out of the busy schedule in your day and talk to us about all the excitement makes me want to come back and visit. I haven't been down here in a few years. So you may see me show up at your door myself because I I haven't. I have wonderful memories of taking my kids down there when they were young my son just absolutely loved the cannons going off at the Jamestown on. Site and just going to Williamsburg we used to go to the pottery while it without. Yeah. It's still there but that we used to love do make rebuilt it. Building. Little older. You know it was long time longtime. Well Debbie. I would love to have you come here and show you around and yeah I might have to come down this weekend. You Never Know Ellen but. W so much for having me on your show. You're coming on and talking to the people to give them a real flavor for what it's like in Williamsburg and it sounds like there's something for just about everyone. No matter if it's some places to go the restaurants to eat in or places to live, it's it's all there in Williamsburg and I do appreciate your time and thank you very much. Thank you so much, Debbie. You're very welcome. Thank you. Okay. Thank you. Bye Bye.

Williamsburg Williamsburg Williamsburg Real Debbie Williamsburg Inn Williamsburg Realty Williamsburg Comfort Williamsburg winery Williamsburg Jamestown Williamsburg Newport News Inte Christopher Newport University Virginia Ellen Smith Newport Florida James River Christopher Newport DC Jamestown kingsmill Richmond
What's the Best Strategy for Finding a Parking Spot?

BrainStuff

06:49 min | 1 year ago

What's the Best Strategy for Finding a Parking Spot?

"Today's episode is brought to you by the capital one venture card the capital one venture card you earn unlimited double miles and every purchase everyday and you can use those miles toward travel expenses like flights hotel the rental cars and more just book and Pay Your travel using your venture card and redeem your miles toward the cost capital one. What's in your Wallet Credit Approval required she makes money moves is a production of glamour an iheartradio listen and subscribe at Apple Podcast iheartradio APP or wherever you listen to podcasts her if enough other drivers select one of the alternative strategies if everyone tried to play the same parking strategy it would no longer be optimal volcano also notes ideal and driving and of course they couldn't account for every variable quote the main complication was the inherent many body nature of the parking process a name it dependent upon which parking strategy other drivers select is an excellent application of Game Theory Edgy the prisoner's dilemma? My best strategy is only bet optimistic and prudent as they define them meek drivers immediately settle for the first spot they find which may leave spots near the front unfilled a plus associate professor of psychology at Christopher Newport University in Virginia he said it is important to note this simple fact the success of my parking strategy is just a bit closer to their destination they may end up backtracking to a spot that a meek driver would have claimed initially if they don't find something better immediately after also omitted real world variables like drivers speed intense competition for spots or the irrationality of harried human beings. Okay so that's the run at the mall so it seems does everyone else the mall parking lot is crowded so where she park your car if you're trying to save time at the first spot imagine it's Saturday afternoon and due to a number of questionable choices that you made either in this or past life you have a few necessary errands her along walk up domestic drivers aren't afraid to hunt certain that eventually they'll triumphantly land they're prima spot no matter how many times they have to circle the lot to find it the cost drivers the least amount of time followed by the optimistic strategy and then the Meek Strategy Redner is quick to point out that this particular a parking spaces like right in front of your final destination are usually unavailable quote time and perceived scarcity are the two biggest factors that affect parking strategy only one doesn't know in advance which spots are free and the game is whether to pick the current spot or try another spot which may not be open closer to the destination exercise is purely mathematical he said by e mail we tried hard to minimize the number of free parameters by judicious choices such as assigning the same speed for walking prudent Parker's meanwhile are a bit more aggressive than meek drivers bypassing the low hanging fruit and hopes of a closer spot but are unwilling to circle several times to get and the Journal of Statistical Mechanics and in it physics professors Sydney render from these Interfaith Institute and Poke Ski of Boston University applied their mathematical prowess denting their categories the scientists created a simulation using processes such as probability theory and rate equations the researchers found that the prudent strategy was the best you see no matter how far away from the entrance or should you prowl for an elusive spot closer in there's a scientific study for that it was published in September Twenty Nineteen Matica side of the story but is there a parking lot strategy that better accounts for the quirks of real people we also spoke by email with Andrew Volki and garage for example to prevent their car for getting dinged but that's another story redner INCR- bisky divided parking personas into three categories meek is to pinpoint the best parking spot search strategies here we define the best spot as the one nearest the mall entrance some people might favor a spot on a top floor of a she's people will spend time looking for parking space and incur a time travel costs from their vehicle to the final destination after they've parked their car it appears that people are often attempting to reduce the time travel cost and often encourage greater acquisition time cost as a result it's most interesting to note the people will try to get a parking spot that's closest to the door the JIMMER exercise club that they're about to enter to answer our parking lot question Velka referred to a nineteen ninety eight paper published in the Journal Transportation Science in which the researchers determined that the best strategy was to randomly pick a row and park in the closest apparent space in that row rather than to drive up and down multiple rows searching for a closer spot in other words the time saved and finding a spot made up for the longer time spent walking to the front door it wasn't a he huge time savings though in that model the expected time to the front door from the spot using the method was sixty one point three one seconds with the multiple rail methods it was seventy point seven seconds Veliky says those few times when we do score spot at the front become very memorable to us but quote basis parking strategies are one thing but parking lot design also dramatically affects efficiency and space consumption British mathematics professor insists tomorrow process when we noticed these spaces we missed as a result people over predict both the likely availability of these spaces and their unlikelihood of obtaining these perhaps even more memorable are the times when we park cars and come across space right in front on our way to the entrance of the destination we will employ counterfactual if I'd only during around the lots with diagonal spaces dramatically reduced congestion and improve traffic flow compared to those that use grid patterns implant how stuff works dot com and more podcast from iheartradio business I heart radio APP apple podcasts or wherever you listen to your favorite shows

Apple associate professor of psychol Christopher Newport University Virginia three one seconds seven seconds
What happened at the Democratic Primary debate for Governor?

Transition Virginia

43:50 min | Last week

What happened at the Democratic Primary debate for Governor?

"Mcauliffe is clearly the front runner in the race right now on this episode of transition virginia. The democratic primary for governor turned this into more of a class war. We're joined by quinton kit. Christopher newport university. This was the moment of the debate. We take a look at the five democrats running for governor and examine their performance in the first televised debate. I don't know that that's an effective debating strategy. I expect more to come from. Fallout all that and so much more on this episode of transition. Virginia welcome to transition virginia. The podcast that examines the ongoing transition of power in virginia Michael folk and. I'm thomas bowman today on the podcast. The democratic primary governor five democrats vying to be the nominee heading into the fall election season in the june primary is only two months away. So how does this field of candidates shape up. And what will they do if elected. Who's ahead and who's behind to help us understand. This primary were joined by the one and only dean of the college social sciences at christopher newport university ease the academic director of the judy ford watson center for public policy. And he's one of the sharpest observers in virginia quinton. Kid thanks for joining us. It's really great to be with you. Great so during the first televised debate in the primary this week terry mcauliffe was the only person on the stage with the title of former governor and he was also the person who had the biggest target on his back. All the candidates seemed really eager to take a shot at the perceived frontrunner runner this race i out of the gate was former delegate. Jennifer carroll who said mcauliffe was not serious about addressing gun violence the reason we have in curb gun. Violence isn't because we don't know how to do it. It is because we have politicians failing to act. And when terry mcauliffe had opportunity as governor to be serious about gun violence he did a back room deal with the nra. Undermining concealed weapons laws in virginia. Making us all less safe. She's talking about two thousand and sixteen deal where the governor used. From attorney general mark harrying to sever reciprocity rights of gun owners in thousand five states as leverage to cut a deal in exchange virginia. Got to take guns away from anyone. Under a two year. Protective order for domestic violence offenses and state police would have attend. All gun. shows to provide background checks. Here's the governor responding to carrol foy and check out how he hopes sender jennifer mcclellan throws him a lifeline. That bill she refers to was a bipartisan bill. Senator mcclellan helped me on it as it was a bipartisan bill. Bring folks together. It was the toughest domestic violence bill in the united states of america. Now you have mclovin. There are saying no as in. Don't bring me into this. What do we make this exchange between the candidates. Well you know. I cannot help but go back to turn. Mcauliffe's i run for governor and much the issue of guns and gun control has moved in virginia politics. You know. the first time he ran there had never bad candidate democratic or republican candidate in virginia to run in essentially proudly run as a gun control candidate and he mccall's mentioned this in the debate but none of the other democrats would touch the issue of gun control and they were all sort of leery of past elections where they had even hinted at the idea of gun control in. It'd cost them in. So mccall runs on gun control or touted And people say oh. That's a death sentence. Any wins fast forward to this election cycle and all of the candidates on stage are not only running on gun control but they're pushing mcauliffe on the issue of gun control. I just i think that issue alone speaks to how far virginia politics has moved in last ten years in its in. Its a phenomenal movement. If you wanna think about transitions in in politics it's just a phenomenal movement. Now there was this interesting exchange there between mcclellan and mccullough and it wasn't the only one later on the discussion of guns included another weird moment. Mccullough was listing his agenda on guns banning assault weapons banning high capacity magazines banning ghost guns and allowing local governments to ban guns at permited events. Then mcauliffe said this about mcclellan and is governor ida right wing legislature. I think senator mcclellan. You're with me on a lot of these battles thank you right wing legislature. We had veto bill after bill. After bill none of them got through. And i you senator senator. I was proud to work to address gun violence and once in two thousand twenty we were able to pass about seven bills to address gun violence including giving local governments the ability to ban weapons at permanent events. We could have gone far though the once again mcclellan is forced to say. Don't drag me into this and she adds also what are the things on. Your agenda is something. We've kind of already done quinton kid. What do we make this. Dynamic between mcauliffe and mcclellan. Yes so. I think mcauliffe is clearly the front runner in the race right now and i think he sees mcclellan as either one of two things either. His greatest rival as we go down the stretch into the democratic primary voting in early june. He sees her as either his greatest rival or and probably it's both of these or or they're in the same lane and so they're competing for the same set of voters. And so i think the caller strategy here is to essentially reduced the space between them as much as possible so that a mcclellan leaning voter right now may say will mcauliffe is in the lead. He's most likely to win. So i'm gonna go ahead and give mcauliffe my vote in so that may be the strategy that he's pursuing by essentially pulling her very closely in know. I think it is fair to say that you know mcclellan a work closely with mcauliffe as governor there in the same lane politically and ideologically very much alike. And so it's interesting to watch the dynamic between those two because it's a different dynamic than say the dynamic between a mcauliffe in any of the other candidates fairfax or carrefour for example. It's a different dynamic. Because i think they're really struggling to attract the same set of voters yet speaking about that dynamic clinton kid. Is there any ice between these. Two candidates few years ago terry mcauliffe and jennifer mcclellan to pod right they were very close as you mentioned very ideologically aligned and of course jennifer mccollum gets in before terry announces that he's running again. Although it telegraphed for quite some time as ice between these two candidates now is that one thing that we should be looking into or is this electioneering. I think it's more electioneering like like. I think there's ice between fairfax and and mccollough for example. But i don't know that there's ice between mcclellan Mcauliffe as much as there is political rivalry the sense. That sort of your time has passed mcauliffe. It's time to give others the opportunity. You know that sort of political posturing. I don't get bad blood But you know to be fair it neither mccullough for mcclellan are the kind of personalities that are gonna exhibit put on public display bad blood in so i think of this more is not a friendly rivalry. I think it's a serious disagreement on about who's time it is to run into into be governor but i don't think it's deep more deeply personal than that. I don't get the sense that it is anyway. Since you brought up ice with lieutenant governor justin fairfax. We have to talk about this moment. This explosive moment in the debate this happened during a discussion of reform and systemic racism. Fairfax dropped this bomb. We can't talk theoretically about what generally happens but We have a real world example where. I was falsely accused. I in twenty nineteen from washington post now saying leaves false accusations of raising that question and whether it was a rush to judgment everyone here on the states call for my media. Resignation including terry mcauliffe. Three minutes after press release came out. He treated me like george. Floyd i treated me like intel. No due process immediately assumed my guilt. This is a really explosive charge. Clinton kid determine. Calif treat. Justin fairfax like emmett. Till and george. Floyd i tell you. I think this was the moment of the debate. I i was stunned. When justin fairfax made that statement it runs against so many waves in our politics right now. The idea that he's accused of sexual assault in yet. He's going to push back on that and try to couch himself as a victim in a guys george florida emmett till it really was astonished. And he's been pilloried. All over social media at one of his. Accusers came out of right after the debate instead. It wasn't a false accusation. I'm not ashamed. She said i'm not ashamed of bringing to light what happened to me etc so i don't know what that got him. It didn't get him sympathy. We talking about him. I mean like he did get the buzz around surrounding that comment right yet. But i don't know that it's the right kind of buzz. I think when you're in a position of being not the front runner in a five person field. I don't know that it's the right kind of buzz in so i don't know that it does you many good. I think he could have said. I've been a victim without going so far as to equate his situation with george floyd emmett till in maybe have gotten the same point across without the gobsmacked response that seems to have seen that he seems to have gotten. Yeah this moment from fairfax really gave me brett kavanagh vibes where he just completely defied any reasonable sense of good decorum and you know. Obviously emit till a george floyd. They were horribly murdered. And the fact that fairfax is still alive makes it a false comparison period. Fairfax of course is accused of being a rapist. I would point out. The washington post did not exonerate him. They pointed out some discrepancies in the stories. That did not exonerate justin fairfax. So there's a lot of misinformation here. I expect more to come. Just from fallout. He's really defying. The thought that all press is good. Press not in this case would delegate. Lee harder took a broader approach to attacking mccullough by lumping in with all of the candidates on the stage during a discussion of legalizing marijuana. I introduced legislation to legalise cannabis in the commonwealth of virginia back. When even some of the other candidates on this stage asked me. Why are you doing this to us an election year. The carter has also called for using the tax revenue from taxing marijuana to create a fund for reparations to account for the transatlantic slave trade and jim crow of delegate. Carter's position on marijuana and reparations as essentially an attack on mcculloch yet. So i thought the whole discussion about legalization of marijuana was interesting because everybody was tripping over everybody else trying to claim that they were first in line to support this legislation or first in line to try to you submit legislation etc. Lee carter in all fairness is probably the most politically liberal. I mean. he's a democratic socialist. He probably is the most left on stage but he standing on a stage with two african american women in african american man and a former governor. Who did things that african american voters really supported Voting reforms and things like that and so as the other white guy onstage. He he probably needed to distance himself from the rest of the candidates and he did it. I thought in an interesting way by linking marijuana legalization in the reform of marijuana laws with reparations in jim crow the jim crow history in virginia and so it was an interesting point. I don't know that it gets him much in the context of an attack on mcauliffe. But it's an interesting collection of thoughts and ideas put together in that piece there. The other really big attack on mccullough was about this controversy surrounding the parole board now. Republicans have already signaled. This will be one of their major attack. Lines this senator. Mcclellan used the issue as an attack on mcculloch. Governor collins had an opportunity to put more money in place for the parole board. Unfortunately he didn't. Is this parole board controversy. Something that will work as a line of attack on mcauliffe it it very well could it. Certainly the republicans have like you said signaled that this is gonna be a big issue for them. And i think it's going to be a part of a larger kind of criminal justice crime issue that That seems to be shaping up on the republican side and and mcculloch you know the fact that mcauliffe appointed the parole board chair on when he was governor does lead him to this controversy. Even if the controversy itself wasn't under his watch and so. I do think he's gonna have to respond this. I think it respond to like he did. He'll say hey. I wasn't there when this happened. And he may just brush it off. But i think he's going to have to deal with it in the fall. Republicans are going to are going to try to hang on this issue all over him and make him drag it around the entire campaign if he's the democratic comedy. Yeah there's no doubt that the republicans are going to bring it up. I don't really think too. Many democrats are going to bring it up outside of the context of these pot shots but the reality is nobody votes on the parole board. It's such like nobody knows how it works. We don't really have parole in virginia. Anyway it's it's limited to people who are incarcerated before a certain point in time we got rid of parole so like the reality is as controversial as this may be one. This is more of a scandal for the current administration. Not the previous one and it's not going to stick. Virginia voters vote on education transportation in the economy year after year after year. So go ahead and head on it. If i'm a mcauliffe person. I welcome this because it means the republicans are talking about the things that would get them elect to all right. Let's take a break when we come back the candidates in their own words. How do they talk about themselves. We'll be right back And i'll tell you what doesn't help is when we have reporters like michael pope from w. f. These were not rioters and looters. These were patriots. I never called the people who storm the capital patriots. These were not rioters and looters. These were patriots. I never called the people who storm the capital patriots. We have to hold our media accountable. You can help our podcast hold. People in power accountable head over to transitions. Virginia dot com and hit the button. That says contribute on patriotic. For as little as three dollars a month you can help us speak truth to power and we're back on transition. Virginia were talking about the democratic primary for governor. And now we're gonna talk about how the candidates talk about themselves the narrative they try to weave about who they are and why they're running. We're gonna start with governor mccullough. Who doesn't really need much of an introduction because voters already know who he is. He's raised six million dollars most of all of these candidates and he's clearly the front runner in this race. This is how he explains his reason for running for governor. I will take virginia to the next level. That is why i've built such a broad coalition the most members of the general assembly the most members of the black caucus why i did it before i took over in the middle of a crisis. We create a two hundred thousand new jobs. And we'll do it again. I'd love your support. Thank you broad. Coalition most endorsements most. Money quinton. Kit is this a message. That's going to work in a democratic primary. Look if the polling is accurate And it probably broadly is He's the front runner and the way he's describing himself the narrative that he's using is the narrative of a front runner who was attempting to solidify that position and so As where i sit right now i would say it is likely to work. It seems like it's working. Because i don't think we came out of the debate with terry mcauliffe in a week position. I think we came out of the debate with him. Either being in the same position or slightly stronger in the sense that you know he was a few times and it didn't seem to hurt him. And so i yeah i think you know. I think i get the How he's describing himself in the context of the party the democratic party itself and in the context of the for the people on the stage at he's running against. Yeah i would agree with that. Terry met expectations. I don't know that he wowed anybody. And i don't think we saw terry running on all cylinders during the democratic debate because there was no audience and terry mcauliffe is somebody who very much absorbs the energy in the room and there was no room so i think that's one reason why terry mcauliffe just met expectations and i agree. I don't think anybody landed a punch here. Certainly not a mortal blow. I think some of the candidates and we'll get to them in a second proved themselves good second choices viable alternatives. If something were to happen to -tarian he were to not be in the race anymore. Our next candidate is jennifer carroll. She's a former member of house of delegates where she served a term and a half. She was originally elected in two thousand seventeen when she unseated. Republican incumbent delegate mark dudin half unlike all the other general assembly members in this race. She resigned hersi to run for governor. Now she's raised about two million dollars and this is how she talks about herself on the campaign trail. I was born and raised in petersburg that has one of the highest child poverty rates in virginia. And when my grandmother who raised me how to stroke and became a quadriplegic. I had to make the tough decision between paying for mortgage or for the medications keeping her alive. Virginians deserve a governor who has walked in their shoes who understands the challenges that they face and who will fight for them. The we often hear candidates talking about their hardscrabble upbringings. But i'm wondering quinton kid does her story have even more contrast when she standing next to terry mcauliffe look. She's got impressive. Resume an impressive background. If just an impressive person. Generally i didn't like that. She looked a little scripted in the debate. And i think she could have looked a little less scripted. And i think he would have come across better but her story is really compelling in its really compelling contrasted against terry mcauliffe and i just have to say at the end of the day of terry mcauliffe wins this nomination in becomes democratic nominee for governor. I wish carrefour had stayed in the general assembly a little bit longer. Put the time in and had done this. A year cycle or two down the road. Because i really think that the basic bread and butter material candidate is there with jennifer carroll for yeah i also noticed at times seemed like i was reading the words directly in front of her and that's a criticism that's come up about her before boy is somebody who in the past has been seen as speaking and great platitudes and on the surface makes amazing points. But when you dig into the policy it's just not there and my wife also noticed it last night too is seemed like if these candidates were in a position to drill down into some of this policy certainly compared to jennifer mcclellan who will talk about in a second mcclellan almost got into the weeds so much that it was reminiscent of al gore at times. But foy spoke in thirty thousand foot. Platitudes and i think that is something. That will come up again in this primary well speaking of jennifer mcclellan She was first elected to the house of delegates back in two thousand five to fill a seat vacated by viola baskerville who joined the cane administration then in two thousand seventeen. She won a special election to fill the seat. Vacated by donald mckee jn when he was elected to the congress now she's raised about a million dollars and this is how she talks about herself on the campaign trail. I was motivated to make government force progressive chains solving people's problems and uplifting our communities. That's was motivated. Needs for the past sixteen sessions as i've walked past a statue of harry byrd every day into the state capital knowing. I m his worst nightmare. If black woman. Working to aratu kate the equity that he put in place quinton could can jennifer mcclellan win by running against harry byrd short answer no You know we all know who harry. Burt is a lot of a lot of younger voters. Who might not vote in this primary at all. Don't know who harry byrd is. But i don't think she can run against jerry burden the reference to her being sort of al gore liked her policy. Wonk ish is. I think a great one you know jennifer carroll foyers too superficial jennifer. Mcclellan might be too in the weeds on policy in. It's hard for the voter to shift from harry byrd too deeply in the weeds on policy in so i think it's really sort of difficult space to navigate between those two things and that's kind of what she was doing. You know she's most comfortable in the weeds on policy but she recognizes that. She's got to try to get out of those weeds a bit and so she draws these references every so often but they in my mind seemed to be sort of forced because she knows she needs to. And i just don't know that that's an effective debating strategy. Yeah you know. If terri is almost like the greatest showman mccollum is almost like the greatest workhorse because she is very much running a campaign that would be great for the electorate. That was only richmond where it's more policy centric and i don't know how much northern virginia cares about harry byrd or the statue on capitol square. And she's got to make a play down in hampton roads and i don't know that hampton roads is really thinking about the statue of harry byrd right now either. Would next up among the candidates is lieutenant governor just in fairfax. He's a federal prosecutor. Who was elected. Lieutenant governor in two thousand seventeen then in two thousand nineteen is we all remember. He faced multiple allegations of sexual assault of the charges. Were never filed. So he's got this cloud hanging over him. this is how he talks about himself on the campaign trail. I believe that. I'm the best candidate for governor of the commonwealth going forward because people are facing extraordinary challenges in their lives challenges. Unlike we have ever seen we're dealing with a pandemic and economic crisis at a racial injustice crisis that is threatening vary lives foundation that people have built over the course of many generations. And they're looking for someone to fight for them. Quinn kid what do you make of this nature here where he wants. Voters to vote for him because people are facing extraordinary challenges. Yeah they're all of all of the candidates essentially are at one one level or another pitching their ability to respond to the extraordinary crises or series of crisis that we're facing in the commonwealth in the country. You know at the end of the day. I think justin fairfax has a really good balance between the sort of you know. He's really great on the stump. He's got just enough policy chops. I think to be sort of substantive enough when he needs to be he's not super scripted but he has the cloud of the sexual assault allegations hanging over him and he can't get out from under them and so it's tough to say voters elect me because i'll fight for you when he's still having to fight for himself and i think that's his primary challenge year and he's still got a body of support out there among the electorate. I just don't know that it's enough at this point. And i don't think the debate change that to move him into a different position vis-a-vis term mccall's. Yeah this opening statement from justin. Fairfax was probably the best moment for his night. He started off strong and admittedly when i saw his opening statement. I thought that we might actually see a different measure justin fairfax than what we ended up with at the end of the debate. And you know to clinton's point. Justin fairfax is going to be too busy fighting off. Sexual assault allegations to fight for voters. The final candidate in this race is delegate lee carter. He's the only socialist in the race. He was first elected in that wave election back. In two thousand seventeen unseating republican incumbent. Jackson miller he introduces himself by talking about divisions in virginia not divisions between republicans and democrats are even urban versus rural. But this that division in this commonwealth is between the haves and the have nots and for too long we have had government that responds only to the needs of the wealthy and those with political connections in contrast to the rest of the field. I am not a millionaire. I am not an attorney. I'm an enlisted marine corps veteran and electronics repairman and. I got involved in virginia politics. Because i got hurt at work in the summer of two thousand fifteen and no one wanted to fix the worker's comp system this is actually not the kind of profile that would normally see among people who run for statewide. Office quinn kid. Can a blue collar lawmaker. Who moonlights as a lift driver be elected to the executive mansion so the odds are against him but i have to say of the five people on that stage in that debate i think lee carter was the only candidate who the more you listen to him. The more you liked him. Because he makes sense to a lot of people. And i could see lee carter if you just took off the democratic socialist label. I could see lee carter being really appealing to the sort of trump voter out there. The republican voter who was attracted to trump's populace on language in so in an in a weird sort of way i think we could create a cross ideological coalition if he could make it to be a a statewide candidate. I just don't know that he can get through the primary process to do that. But i but. I have to say from beginning to end. I was impressed with him. His command of policy his ability to articulate his his views in his issues. I was impressed with them. The entire debate. Yeah i agree. Lee carter has been on this show before transition virginia listener and gasped league. Harder in. My opinion had the best night of everybody during the democratic debate. Because there weren't really any expectations. He doesn't have very much statewide name. Recognition people who are watching and because there were no expectations. He just surpassed everything that had been set. Compare and contrast with terry mcauliffe who performed about as expected and jennifer mcclellan who struggled at times to be a showman and got stuck in the weeds and foy who was a showman but couldn't find the weeds. Carter had extraordinarily strong night during the debate. Okay let's take another break when we come back. We're going to talk about how these candidates hoped to position themselves against other candidates. We'll be right back you yes you. You're listening to transition. Virginia right now. And you're probably a fan of the podcast right well then rate and review like trevor sutherland. One-star the only time. I listened when that's not really what i was thinking about this review from richard. Crouse piece of shit podcast. I wouldn't write one star. Come on listeners. I know you can do better than that. Hit the pause right now and give us a quick review and we're back on transition virginia. We're talking about the democratic primary for governor. We've got five candidates who are trying to position themselves as the one to take on whoever republicans and their convention. Now everyone thinks mccullough is the front runner and he certainly raised more money and secured more endorsements. But he's kind of already had his turn and many people think that he represents the past which is why his comment about getting. The vaccine was striking this. We're not going to be safe until everybody has a vaccine and our goal should be public sector private sector reaching out to the religious leaders throughout all the communities to talk from the pulpits to say you need to take this vaccine and soon we'll have doses for everybody. I still don't have it. I'm too young. I i don't fit the category yet so i'm still waiting to get my vaccine. The already got my vaccine. Terry mcauliffe is making me feel old here clinton kid what do we make terry mcauliffe positioning himself as the spring chicken. I love this. This is classic terry mcauliffe. I think he sixty four sixty five years old so he barely fits. Whatever categories are. He needs to fit into to get the the scene. But he's this. Is terry mcauliffe a showman. And this is how terry mcauliffe is going to position himself. In the final two months of the campaign he will move as he needs to move either in terms of issue positioning or in terms of how he positioned himself. Personally you know. Suddenly the youngest guy on stage who is not old enough to get the vaccine yet or however he needs to do that he will do it to sort of navigate the final two months of the democratic primary process. I mean i just chuckled. When he said all that. Because i was thinking to myself i don't know exactly how it leaves but i think he's sixty four sixty five something like that yeah. He definitely qualifies for the vaccine and he should absolutely get it because covert has no joke for sure but yet terry is going to try to draw contrast with everybody he. He's painfully aware that he's running against two black women a black male and a working class democrat. And he's got to stand out. And harry criticisms that he's already had turned so that actually leaves very limited lines of argument for governor mcauliffe. You know one thing that we've seen from these. Candidates is two of them talking about being in kind of hard times during the pandemic lee carter and also jennifer carroll who talked about her family having hard times during the pandemic. This is what she said in that. First debate we pay a second mortgage every month call. Childcare while straddled with student loan debt. So when this pandemic happened we both had to sit at our kitchen table. Pull out our checkbook and make some tough decisions and when my hours got rolled back when he lost one of his jobs times got tough and they're tough for so many virginia families out there and that's why we need a governor who understand the challenges that virginia families face. I don't have to empathize. Because i understand. Now when she said that it felt to me like she was pointing. That right at terry mcauliffe. I don't need to empathize terry mcauliffe. Because i understand clinton kit. Is that a message. That's going to resonate with democratic primary voters. So i think it i think this was one of her strongest moments of night because she personalized herself in a way that even if the presentation made it sound like she had practiced that line over and over and over again. It was a very personal line. And i think the reason it was a powerful line is because they're hundreds of thousands of people around the commonwealth. Now i relate to that position i mean she was essentially scripting campaign ad right there a couple sitting around the table trying to figure out what bills to pay. I think it was a strong line. I think this is the kind of thing that could help her. Going forward in the campaign. Making this kind of argument personalizing it in this way. Because it does draw contrast with terry mcauliffe and i think any contrast are going to be good going forward. Yeah i don't know that anybody. Who isn't terry has a path to victory. The way virginia runs elections right now but certainly one path to victory. that could work for. Foyer is to turn this into more of a class war against terry. Who is very much. The virginia gentry. So it's something she's gotta do agree. She executed now. Families across virginia are of course struggling in the pandemic. And this is how senator jennifer mcclellan is positioning herself to help out those families. Unlike past recessions we cannot simply focus on luring other companies. here to virginia. We have got to stabilize and grow. The small businesses particularly are women and minority owned businesses. Who are struggling. Who wants to provide the to their employees sickly. Pay family medical leave and they need our help now. When she's talking about luring companies here to virginia. I'm hearing a criticism of mccullough. Here quinton kid. Is this a positioning. That's going to work with primary voters. I don't think so. And i. I the reason i say that is because this is classic. Mcclellan by the way focus on policy get into the weeds a little bit on policy. Not anything about herself not personalizing in any in if it was a criticism of mcauliffe and the amazon deal. It was so vague in so minimally directed at mcculloch did. I don't think it really landed for many voters. And so i think that's the problem contrast mcclellan with carol in you get two very different kind of candidates. And i just don't think mcclellan in that context really connects with voters like carefully connected with voters with her story positioning story. There was also an interesting moment in the debate. When lieutenant governor justin fairfax was calling attention to how the debate was working and whether or not governor mcauliffe was speaking too much and he sort of used it as a contrast. This is the moment that you just want to point out that appears to be to set of rules up here One where the governor could talk long as he wants to do whatever he wants and one for everybody else. Having that sure we stick to the one minute time frame. Please one minute and watch the time coat. And when you're rounded up please do so. I think that's part of the issue is that we do have So many disparities in our society quit kid is mccullough himself. An example of disparities in our society Have so many things to say this statement. It is a part of. What was a pattern It as fairfax the victim and i. I don't think that did him any good by the way. It is the case that mcculloch of all the people on that stage have probably benefited from the rules. Formal and informal of society more than anybody else. But i don't know that. Fairfax lands the critique as as well as it could be landed because again he is under accusations that he's not been able to get out from under yet that fit into a larger clash in society and so he can't at the same time been claimed to be a victim and then try to land a punch on. Call us for being. You know the white guy who's benefited from all of the benefits of society. And so. I just don't know that it landed in. I walked away from the debate. Thinking justin fairfax can't win this race by being the victim. And that's what he essentially did in the debate yet and fairfax taking time. The one minute that he has to respond to just wine for thirty seconds didn't do him any services if any politician has been paying attention at least since two thousand sixteen. The response is not to whine about the front runner. Taking advantage of the moderators. If that's what they're doing it's to do it yourself right so if you're complaining that somebody is going over sixty seconds you should also go over sixty seconds and make the moderator stop you without someone who sometimes moderates these things. I'm going to disagree with you. Thomas candidates are listening. Please do not do that. Do not take that advice So now we heard. Carol roy talk about how difficult it was. Sit around the kitchen table. And her hours were cut and her husband lost one of her jobs and so she's struggling during the pandemic. We also heard delegate lee carter talk about collecting unemployment insurance. This is what he said. I'm one of those virginians. It's still waiting for an answer from the employment commission. you know. my second job is lift driver. Because the general assembly doesn't pay enough to make ends meet and so obviously gig workers were eligible for p. Ua from the start this pandemic and they told me i was eligible and then they gave me a single check for one hundred and fifty eight hours. No more answered. No more reason for why that stopped. So i m right there with the hundreds of thousands of virginians who are waiting for an answer for the virginia employment commission and i think that their performance. It's understandable that they've been overwhelmed but it is unacceptable that here we are year later and people still don't have a reason why they're not being paid. This kind of personal story is so rare in politics to hear a statewide candidate talk about collecting unemployment insurance and having a hard time with the employment commission. Quinn kid what do we make this story. And this is going to work with voters. Well again i think this is. Why a leak are i think. He's of all the people on that stage during the debate. He is the one who can relate to voters where they are vote. Many voters where many voters are because many voters are in the same situation. And you know when he said that there was a name that popped into my head that anyone who follows virginia politics. Remember melanie rabb. When she was in the house of delegates. She was a substitute teacher and so she relied on her house. Delegates income much more than most any other delegate did in lee carter is essentially in that same position in and so again. I don't know that leak. Arctic can overcome his lack of resources lack of name recognition around the state. But i think the more people hear lee carter the better position. Carter is in yeah. I'd agree with that. Carter has an extraordinarily powerful story and he brings up issues that nobody else has talking about. That are extremely important and regarding unemployment. There's not a single democrat who went to the mat for strengthening unemployment benefits and any budget session prior to covid and the fact that nobody in the virginia legislature is even thinking about strengthening. Our social safety nets tells us tells voters that we don't have good representation among working class virginians in the legislature. So the more he talks about this stuff. The more that average virginia will identify with him. And i realize he is a fun punching bag for a lot of the democratic establishment. But the reality is terry mcauliffe is going to be the he absolutely needs to listen to every word. Lee carter says and implement everything he can. Well clinton kids thank you so much for joining us any other thoughts you have about the state of the primary or what. We learned in this first televised debate. Yeah i would just say. Look at the end of the day. The candidates came in positioned left debate in the same order of positioning as they came into the debate. I don't think terry mcauliffe. He's the leader right now which everything seems to point that direction. I don't think anything happened to make him. Not the leader going out. Min- to thomas point. They're just a minute ago. I do think terry mcauliffe end. Probably the other candidates on that stage are gonna be moving toward. Lee harbors positions on some issues as we go forward and that's what makes him valuable voice In this field. But but i think at the end of the day. This is the first debate. There are several others to come. I think terry mcauliffe came out of the debate in the same position. He came into the debate. Let's see if that position changes as we have the next several debates. That's a nice place to leave if you have comets questions disagreements serious objections to what you just heard or maybe you only want to tell us what you think about the show right an email. Send it to us at transition. Va podcast at g. Mail dot com. So we can read it on. The air subscribed to transition. Virginia anywhere pods are cast. Follow the transition team on twitter at transition and find us on the web at transition. Virginia dot com. Don't forget to like and subscribe so you enjoy our next episode of transition virginia.

terry mcauliffe mcauliffe virginia mcclellan jennifer mcclellan justin fairfax harry byrd jennifer carroll quinton mccullough lee carter fairfax mcculloch Christopher newport university Justin fairfax jim crow mccall Lee carter patriots Mcauliffe
NPR News: 10-20-2019 10PM ET

NPR News Now

04:59 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 10-20-2019 10PM ET

"Get fast speeds even when everyone is online working to make WIFI simple easy awesome more at xfinity dot com restrictions apply this message comes from NPR sponsor xfinity some things are slow like a snail races other things are fast like Xfinity X. by seven million dollars in third place another sequel Columbia Pictures Zombie Land Doubled hot taking in twenty seven million dollars this is n._p._R.. News Johnson will make another attempt to get his new deal through parliament tomorrow for NPR news. I'm Vicki Barker in London engineers New Orleans set off ace has drawn national attention as the GOP defense narrow majorities in both houses of the General Assembly Democratic candidates in Virginia raised nearly thirty two announced visit a landmark federal opioid trial is set to get underway with opening arguments tomorrow after last minute settlement talks broke down on Friday the trial according to the Virginia Public Access Project Political Scientist Quinton Kid at Christopher Newport University says the Democrats have momentum after picking up fifteen as of controlled explosions today to bring down two cranes leaning on the side of the partially collapsed hotel near the French quarter one of the cranes came down completely walgreens alleges their practices contributed to the opioid epidemic drugmaker Johnson and Johnson already settled for twenty point four million dollars with the two counties Vicki Barker reports even some of his closest colleagues suspect Boris Johnson secretly wants Britain to crash out of Europe without a deal on October thirty first he's already British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is pressing ahead with plans to leave the UK by the end of the month even after lawmakers forced him to seek a three month delay on all its details so they passed a second motion insisting that final approval can only come after parliament's had a chance to vote in every little detail head he'd rather be dead in a ditch than ask for another extension that's why lawmakers passed an act requiring Johnson to request that extension if there was no new million dollars through the end of September that's more than double their word chest last time all one hundred forty seats were on the ballot Republicans pulled in about twenty one million dollars brexit deal approved by yesterday and why was there no new deal approved yesterday because even some MP's who support Johnson's new deal don't trust him to follow the other is partially down the building and the cranes were considered unsafe by the Fire Department the hard rock hotel was under construction a collapse last weekend killing three along the Syrian border has not ended and reports of civilian casualties keep mounting Bobby Allen NPR news and Espera was in Afghanistan today on an Unin- workers and injured several others word on the cause of the collapse engineers say the work was delicate because of gas and electric lines in historic buildings nearby this is NPR out by two counties in Ohio state and local governments against makers and distributors of the highly addictive painkillers the suit against pharmaceuticals for distributors in Syria to western Iraq. He says they will have a dual purpose is to help defend Iraq and to to perform a counter isis mission as it's in the house of delegates two years ago the party also embraced tighter gun laws as most Virginia voters say it's their top concern gun control has become a Syria abruptly was to bring the soldiers back home but speaking to reporters Defense Secretary Mark Expert says the plan now is to redeployed the thousand troops a big deal in some of these elections and they're outside groups that are giving money related to that Virginia's largest individual fundraiser so far is Republican Virginia Democrats have raised record funds ahead of the state's upcoming elections as Daniele has low from member station W. A. M. U. reports the being northern Syria will be redeployed to Western a rock and here's Bobby Allen reports president trump has repeatedly said that one of the reasons US troops were being pulled out of northern we sort through the next steps and again that's the current game plan things could change between now whenever we completely withdraw despite the US and Turkey saying a ceasefire was in effect bombing stop spot taking in an estimated thirty six million dollars in ticket sales in its debut weekend in Second Place Warner Brothers Joker adding twenty nine million dollars domestic house speaker Kirk Cox for NPR news. I'm Daniela chess slow at the weekend box office Walt Disney's malicious int- mistress of evil knocked joker out of the Lina third weekend the villain origin story has grossed more than two hundred forty seven million dollars domestically worldwide saint seven hundred thirty live from NPR news in Washington.

Boris Johnson NPR NPR Virginia Syria parliament Vicki Barker Bobby Allen US Iraq Walt Disney Kirk Cox walgreens Christopher Newport University Europe Espera Virginia Public Access Project Lina
Here's why you should be watching Virginia next Tuesday

Meet the Press: The Lid

04:21 min | 1 year ago

Here's why you should be watching Virginia next Tuesday

"That all politics is local for me. One of the big election stories of the year is indeed quite local because it's happening in my home state of Virginia the reason that welcome to the live from meet the press I'm carried in the most cliche phrasing politics is the Democrats are not a new wasn't center poll from Christopher Newport University of four Competitive Virginia Senate races found Democrats leading this gun safety laws like universal background checks repoprt change but Gary Higgins put the NRA over our kids so is all of this working that Donald Trump has turned off suburban voters in two years ago those voters made their feelings known loudly Republicans lost fifteen trump so it could be an interesting night don't sleep on the races in Virginia the beautiful Commonwealth known for its fascinating political landscape. It's important history. The governor's race in two thousand seventeen was the house of delegates races that year one year after the election of President Donald Trump they were widely seen as an early glimpse at currently have eight twenty two nineteen majority so if Democrats do well statewide next Tuesday and flipped just those two seats in the upper and lower and and culturally conservative areas Republicans used to do well in those suburbs but they're pretty much a textbook example of the kind of places the Clinton won Virginia by about five points and it just kind of an interesting state to look at because it contains both populace affluent and diverse suburbs and exurbs in seats in the house more than expected one of those races by the way was a tie which was resolved by and no I am not making this up you might remember this picking a candle the generic ballot by fourteen points and almost six in ten voters in those districts said they would be less likely to vote for a Senate candidate who supports president its name out of a Bowl high-tech my home state that Tiebreaker meant that House Republicans maintain their majority by one seat same story in the Senate where Republican Wonderful Blue Ridge and it state university that happened to win the NCW National Championship this year and my Alma Mater why that's is home to both the headquarters of the NRA and the site of one of the deadliest mass shootings this here in Virginia Beach take a listen to some of the Democratic ads airing around the state us if you'd like to hear more of this free audio briefing you can always download us on your favorite podcast APP Virginia Virginia does in fact have weird off year gubernatorial elections too but there's was two years ago in two thousand seventeen the big electoral they could take over both the House and Senate in Virginia which is a big deal because that would mean a lock on democratic power in the states it could also improve the chances junior finally ratifies the equal rights amendments becoming the crucial thirty eight th state to do so also a big issue in the racist here is guns Virginia -sential backlash against the president after all Virginia overall has been trending blue the last time a republican statewide was a decade ago. All story in Virginia is State Legislative Elections Next Tuesday and here is why let's take a trip down memory lane to those aforementioned weird let's he is still in the job and his popularity after taking a dip has kind of stabilized but what was perhaps even more noteworthy than the go off year elections two years ago in Virginia Democrat Ralph Northam defeated Republican and Gillespie in what looked going into the election like a nail biter but ended up being a pretty decisive win for the Democratic candidate. You may recall the name Ralph Northam for the black face scandal. He faced earlier this year too and you'll see what I mean and after the shooting Bill Steph block the Senate from even voting on gun safety for and that's why I'm taking on

Virginia Senate Donald Trump Virginia Virginia Virginia Beach NRA Ralph Northam president Gary Higgins Christopher Newport University Blue Ridge Clinton Gillespie two years one year
NPR News: 02-17-2020 1PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 02-17-2020 1PM ET

"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Laurie London. More than a dozen Americans who have been stuck on a cruise ship docked in Japan or now back in the United States forty four others were sent to hospitals in Japan. The group of fourteen arriving in California late last night tested positive for the corona virus would have shown no signs of illness. They will be kept in quarantine for the next two weeks. The World Health Organization gave an update on the outbreak Sunday with China reporting just over two thousand new cases in twenty four hours or Old Health Organization Director General. Dr Tay Dros. We have a window of opportunity now. We need resources now. To insure countries are prepared. Now we don't know how long this window of opportunity will remain open. Let's not squander it. Teodoro says transparency is critical more data coming in from China as offering clearer pictures of how it's developing and where it could be headed the more than seventy thousand confirmed cases or providing insight. He says into age range of infections severity and mortality rates. There are new calls for attorney. General William Bar to step down more than eleven hundred former justice department officials have signed onto a letter calling for bars. Resignation for overruling prosecutors. In the case of President Trump's longtime ally Roger Stone former acting assistant attorney general for National Security March mccord was among them my concern about Mr Bars actions and certainly seeming to be at the will of the president is that it damages the credibility of prosecutors. The letter was organized by the non-profit Legal Group protect democracy which previously said. The president's conduct outlined in the Muller report would be sufficient to bring felony obstruction of justice charges. Several Virginia Democrats voted with Republicans. This morning to block a proposed assault weapons ban in the State Whitney Evans of member station. Vp 'EM in Richmond says gun control advocates are in disbelief. That members of the Party walked back on the issue. A December poll out of Christopher Newport University showed a slight majority of Virginians want to ban assault style. Weapons but gun. Rights groups say the ban on future sales would be unconstitutional and wouldn't do anything to reduce crime in the end. Four Democrats sided with Republicans voting to study the issue over the next year effectively. Killing the measure. It's a loss for governor Ralph Northam who had campaigned heavily for stricter gun policies. Global stocks are mostly higher with. Shanghai's benchmark jumping over two percent after the central bank rolled out support for the economy amid the corona virus outbreak. This is NPR news. General Motors has announced it will retire. It's iconic Australian brand as it continues to retreat from markets outside of the US. Rachel Bongino has more. The American company has said it will end. Its sales design and engineering operations in Australia and New Zealand by twenty twenty one as the Holden brand is no longer profitable. This comes threes after it ceased manufacturing in Australia and also INS in one thousand nine hundred history of the Holden General Motors partnership these trillion. Prime Minister criticize the move saying that these trillion tax payers have invested millions of dollars into this multinational company only for the brand to wither away on their watch of the eight hundred locals. Currently employed by Holden around six hundred will be out of a job by June. This is the American companies latest. Move to reduce its international presence while increasing its investments in electronic and autonomous vehicles for NPR news. I'm Rachel Buongiorno in Melbourne the National Basketball Association All Star Game. Mp MVP award was officially named for the late. Kobe Bryant at Sunday's game the All star weekend focused heavily on emotional tributes Jennifer Hudson wearing the Lakers deep purple performed pre-game tribute to Bryant and sang for all we know common also paid homage to Bryant saying that even in the darkest times you'll feel Kobi's slight Kobe. Bryant was killed in a helicopter crash in Los Angeles near Los Angeles late last month. His thirteen year old daughter and seven others also died in the crash. I'm Laurie London. Npr News in Washington.

NPR Kobe Bryant Laurie London Washington assault China United States Japan Teodoro General Motors California president Npr Dr Tay Dros Los Angeles Holden General Motors Ralph Northam General William Bar World Health Organization Christopher Newport University
NPR News: 02-02-2019 11PM ET

NPR News Now

04:52 min | 2 years ago

NPR News: 02-02-2019 11PM ET

"NPR podcasts are now available on every major platform checkout all our shows at NPR dot org slash podcasts. That's NPR dot org slash podcasts. Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Jim Hogg Virginia. Senators Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are both calling for governor Ralph Northerns resignation in the wake of a racist photo controversy. Great Carper with member station. W C E says the scandal could complicate state elections in November things we're looking good for Virginia. Democrats before this week a recent federal court ruling redrew number of house districts in their favor and a retirement was boosting their chances of retaking the Senate Rachel bid coffers a political analyst at Christopher Newport university. She says Northerns refusal to resign could change all that this complicates their electoral prospects dramatically. So I would assume that he'll begin to realize that his presence v comes a drag on the entire democratic already. Been offer says Democrats would do much better in November if Lieutenant governor Justin Fairfax, a young popular African American lawyer were. Take over the executive mansion for NPR news. I'm Craig corpora in Richmond. Russia is joining the US and withdrawing from the NF treaty that bans short and intermediate range weapons as NPR's. Lucian Kim reports from Moscow the Kremlin contends the US long ago decided to exit the agreement even before the announcement Kremlin spokesman Dmitry peskov express, certainty the US would withdraw from the IMF treaty. Seeing Trump administration was unwilling to listen to arguments that brushes actually incompliance. The Kremlin has said it won't respond to American ultimatums and at the end of the IMF treaty could cause a new arms race in Europe. And peers Lucian Kim reporting voters, go to the polls, and they'll Salvador on Sunday as Marie Martin reports. They'll be electing a new president in a country where poverty corruption gangs and migration our top voter concerns. Cindy selection marks the fifth presidential contests since the NFL Salvador's, bloody civil war twenty five years ago since then. Have come from either the right wing party or the left wing FM Molin an outgrowth of the guerrilla movement. But this time the front runner is thirty seven year old naive. We'll kill a former mayor of San Salvador who's nut running with either of those parties bouquets been talking a lot about getting rid of corruption in a country were both major parties have been tainted by graft. However, analysts note that none of the major candidates have said much about some other issues important to voters, including migration, and gangs, which have become an important political force in a Salvador for NPR news, I'm Martin despite this week's extreme cold members of Punxsutawney Phil's inner circle contend that spring is coming early and Lurs for Pennsylvania's most famous groundhog claim he didn't see his shadow when the sun rose Saturday, but national weather service records over the past decade indicate that fills predictions are only right about forty percent of the time. This is NPR news. On sunday. Pope Francis will become the first leader of the Catholic church to set foot on the Arabian peninsula. The cradle of Islam as NPR's, Sylvia. Poggioli reports he will visit the United Arab Emirates a country striving to be a model of religious tolerance in a video message. Pope Francis, hailed the Emirates as a model for coexistence and human fraternity a meeting point of different civilizations cultures. We won't throw a place where people find a safe place to work live freely. Edward differences are expected in what will be a landmark in the Arabian peninsula. The pope has been allowed to celebrate an outdoor mass that's expected to draw one hundred thirty five thousand Catholics mostly migrant workers from Asia Francis will also attend an interreligious event as part of what the UAE has branded its year of tolerance while there's more religious freedom in the UAE than in neighboring Saudi Arabia, where only Islam is allowed non Muslims. Are still advised to keep a low profile so via Jolie NPR news, Rome. Another powerful storm battered California on Saturday shutting he highways after water and mud rushed in the lanes from wildfire. Burn areas. Thousands of residents are under a vacuum. Orders amid flash flood warnings in southern California in Malibu officials temporarily closed Pacific Coast Highway and many other roadways after mud flowed into the travel ends the storm system brought more than four inches of rain at lower elevations and several feet of snow in the mountains where white out conditions closed roads. I'm Jim hawk NPR news in Washington.

NPR NPR Jim Hogg Virginia Pope Francis Lucian Kim Ralph Northerns Jolie NPR Salvador Washington Carper IMF United Arab Emirates Marie Martin US California San Salvador Richmond Christopher Newport university Dmitry peskov
Lets Move Live in Williamsburg Virginia

Move or Improve

24:44 min | 2 years ago

Lets Move Live in Williamsburg Virginia

"Furry and welcome to move improve. With Debbie on Debbie Miller, and I am pleased to welcome Ellen Smith guided today, she is going to participate in one of our sessions that were doing on different places around the country to retire to and she actually is the owner and principal broker of Williamsburg realty in guess, where Williamsburg Virginia now, I don't want you to think she's gonna do a sales pitch because to me a realtor knows the area the best, and that's the best kind of person to talk to and Allen's been in the real estate business for about twenty years now, and she's lived in Williamsburg for ten years, and before that she was in old town Alexandria. So she knows a lot of history. But I wanted to have her come on because she knows neighborhood knows the area. She knows the history she knows places to go and things to do. She knows prizes. And I know how popular Williamsburg. Is for retirees especially from in in the northern Virginia area. They wanna stay close to DC, but they wanna have the Williamsburg comfort. So welcome Ellen to the show. Thank you so much for having me, Debbie. No problem with let's let's get started right away because we had a lot to cover and okay, the devil listeners about Williamsburg. What what sets it apart? What makes it? So interesting. Well, Debbie, there are many reasons why people choose to call Williamsburg, Virginia home. I would have to say that first and foremost, Williamsburg is a beautiful college town filled with a rich history and old world charm, yet has all the modern conveniences that any other town does so somewhat say that it's the best of both worlds. Interesting. Okay. So what what college is obviously the college of William and Mary is down there. Yes. What is that the main center of everything for people there or there? Other universities close, by way, actually, have other universities. We have Christopher Newport university. And Newport News, and we have Thomas Nelson community college. We have Old Dominion nearby. So there are lots of nice colleges. Yeah. I remember visiting Christopher Newport. And ODU when my kids were looking at colleges, and yeah, very very nice area. But so what what about the weather talk to people about, you know, if they're tired of the snow, and they wanna move someplace a little warmer. Are they going to get that? Absolutely. I'd love to talk about the weather. We have a moderate climate most of the year, Debbie. I would say that you could probably play golf nine months out of the year. It's cold and December January February into March with a high in the fifties. Lows in the thirties or forties and the rest of the year. It's probably between the. Sixties and eighties. So very moderate. But July and August are hot and humid kinda like DC weather. You can't escape it. But yeah, it's there if you're coming from Florida than might seem like a. That's right. We actually do have people move here from Florida do because. Yeah, they can't they, you know, I find the people who moved to Florida can take it for a short time like a couple of years, and then they just can't handle the humidity in the flooding and all that stuff. So. A lot of them like four seasoned. They really like enjoyed the four seasons. And if you've grown up in the DC area, you're used to that in his hard to adjust to just having it one temperature all year round. So to speak will tell us about right is are they high low what what's the advantage to moving there to save any money on taxes? Yes. Absolutely. Our taxes are very reasonable in James city county, for example, which includes most of this area, they are point eight four per hundred of cesspool you, so for example, on a four hundred thousand dollar house your taxes would be over three thousand a year. So that's very reasonable in the city of weigh ins Berg, the taxes are even lower their point six of hundred of assessed value, so yeah, very reasonable. I guess a one of my questions is going to be. I know what you don't get up here for four hundred thousand. Right. I dried right. You can get something. Nice here for four hundred thousand. Yes. What about the cost of living is it in the middle or lower or higher than? Well, you know, that's a good question. I would say that Williamsburg has a fairly low cost of living. If you look at utilities transportation, groceries all of those are lower than the US average, but we are not considered a low cost area. I mean, we have so much to offer here, and we have infrastructure beautiful location. So it's not low cost. So the housing costs would be the biggest part of that. That would probably make it a little bit above average. Okay. But it's still a good value. It sounds like. Oh, absolutely. Yes. For everything you get here. Yes. Low crime low taxes. I mean, I could go on and on. Well, so let's talk a minute about the walkability. Is it pretty much the kind of town where you could walk to places because I know a lot of baby boomers that I work with are looking for places where they can walk, and they don't have to always be driving around is that or do you need a car? And or what kind of transportation is available. Well, we have communities and neighborhoods where you can walk to shops and restaurants, and we have one of our fifty five plus gated communities where you can walk to the grocery store and restaurants, however, for most of the communities, it is easier to have a car, you can live in a place called Newtown, which is more like city living, and you can walk to restaurants and shops there, but we have buses and trolleys and plenty of ways to get around this, and I just want. Yeah. While we're talking about like, how close everything I just wanted to mention also about our medical facilities. We have wonderful hospitals here because Williams awesome. Sorry. Oh, go ahead. Yeah. Great. It's just people. I always tell them, you know, how far ways their closest hospital. How far you're going to have to go. If you have an emergency because you don't think about that when you're younger, but then when you get older, and if you have a stroke or fall, or whatever you need to get to the doctor pretty fast. So there's good hospitals and doctors around down there after wenttly, we have wonderful, medical facilities and doctors, and because weighing Berg is such a big retirement destination. The healthcare industry is booming here. We have highly rated five star hospitals, including riversides and terra doctors hospital and just put it in perspective, Debbie, you can be almost anywhere within Williamsburg from point a two point be within twenty five minutes. So no matter where you live in Williamsburg. You're going to be close to hospital, and we have great doctors absolutely wonderful doctors here. Well, that's good to know. So do you do you have a rush hour. You used to you know, what there is. Yes. There is a rush hour on ice sixty four. But not if you're in Williamsburg, there's maybe a little bit more traffic on one of our connecting roads of one ninety nine you will find some more traffic there in the afternoons, maybe around five or six o'clock, but it's nothing like a big city at all. It's not like a parking lot on the main road during that time frame. No, no, not at all. I'm having troubles issue. Yes. Shopping and restaurants, there have art museums or nightlife, what would people do while they're there? Well, there is so much to do we have everything from cute little shops, and colonial Williamsburg to more modern shops in a place called new town, which is kind of center a town. We have outlet malls. We have all the modern conveniences, and we have wonderful restaurants coming from old ten L exander. I thought I would be disappointed because I'm such a foodie, I'm very happy with with the choices. We have here. We have five star elegant, and we have casual places and even food trucks. And yeah, different dining endless that makes it. Yes. It makes it really nice. Absolutely. And there are yeah. Yeah. They're art museums and lots of history, you know, we have the colonial Williamsburg historic area, of course. And there's a Jamestown settlement history museum. And I have to mention the musk rally that has world class exhibits are and we have art gallery. Stories we have even musical museum here. So well, there's a lot here. I wouldn't say Williamsburg is a hot nightspot though. I mean, most people if they're going to go out and and party into the wee hours of the morning. It's not gonna be in Williamsburg. It'll probably be in Richmond. Newport News, but in Williamsburg, it's quiet after nine or ten at night, which is fine for some retirees. So. Time is ten o'clock. It's okay. You know, if you wanna stay out late like you said go into Richmond is always something available there for sure that's right. But we also have things like Campbell theater. Dinner theaters Virginia symphony. We have the Ferguson center for the arts at Christopher Newport university. In fact, I go there for plays and concerts. And in the jersey boys is coming up soon. I'm going to that sound of music, and we'd have huge concert in Virginia Beach. So I love rock concert. So I go to lot of those in Virginia Beach, and that's about an hour and a half from here. Oh, well, that's good. Because I know Carell is having a big three day they ash in Virginia Beach coming up. So so tell me why would somebody want to retire Williamsburg? If they're, you know, making a decision, obviously, it has lots to to decide about but you work with clients who are making lose. What is the main reason do you think made one or two reasons? That they are doing it. Why are they using Williamsburg over something else? Well, you know, people just love wings Berg because we have everything here yet. It still has a small town feel and we have breathtaking scenery all kinds of activities rivers beaches, golf, dining shopping, or great and all of these gated communities that we have here have their own clubs and events and one of our fifty five plus commute. They're over forty clubs and the people are friendly here because everyone has come from somewhere else. Hardly anyone is from Williamsburg. So everyone makes friends quickly and easily. So when people come here, they see how friendly does it's like being back in the south. And I can say that because I grew up in Georgia so very friendly here. That's awesome. I think that's always a big. Plus, I always tell people to go spend some extended time not only in the community. They're thinking about but just driving around go the grocery store. See how much things cost and it give. Gives you a feel for what the places really like a aside from like salesperson saying, yeah, you want this community or whatever. So right. What are some of the price points of various housing? Like, what would you pay for a two bedroom? Condo versus you know, before bedroom house. I mean, what can you get something decent for three hundred or five hundred thousand that sort of thing. Yeah. Yes. You can you can buy a condo anywhere from the two hundred to one and a half million. You can buy a patio home from the twos to the like maybe seven hundred you can buy townhomes in the two and three hundreds you can buy single family homes from the to hundreds to the two million. So we have a lot of different types of housing here, and we have gated communities fifty five plus communities, and it's williamsburg's always voted one of America's favorite retirement destinations. And we we'll does so many nice communities, so which which style of housing seems to be the most popular is do people. Really want a condo. Where there have to deal with anything or do they like the single family patio home in a gated community? And somebody else takes care of the ARD that kind of thing a lot of them want, lower maintenance poems and a lot of them want one level homes, or at least to have the master bedroom on the first floor, and we have that in these communities like we have governor slant at two rivers, which is a private country club community, very exclusive with Tom facia, golf course. And dining full service, marina than we have Kingsmill, which has have the LPGA for many years, and they have superb amenities and restaurants on site, and and it's right on the James river. So it's beautiful. That's why live. You don't have to really leave the community. You can just stay there. No, it's it's like living in a resort. Then the affords colony which has over three thousand acres golf courses, mostly single family homes with restaurants country club. And then for those who wanna really downsize, we have these fifty five plus communities in our major community where we sell colonial heritage, which is fifty five plus active adult, so it's not a senior community by any means. These people are active there over forty clubs and they're busy. That's great. So what are some of the clubs? They have a most of these places have like a fitness center and a community center. And then they have bridge. I have friends who moved down to Florida, and she's never home because she's always out doing something and it never ceases to amaze me, all the different choices. You have you go crazy trying to narrow it down. But there's something ever on its, and they do they do have the clubhouse, and they have all kinds of things colonial heritage, for example has traveled club and wine and dine lunch punch book clubs. You could go on and on with with things they do. But. Yeah, really, they take really nice trips with their travel club and they have men's clubs and singles clubs and just it goes on and on. Well, that's great. Because sounds like if you can't find something to do that. It's your fault because there's. That's right, heavy that is the truth. You can stay as active as you want. So what are we talked a minute about some of the places to see in and around Williamsburg? But are there any like -tations around or things like that where we're talk about the history of the absolutely we have so much? I mean, you know, of course, you have colonial Williamsburg, which played a significant role in the American revolution. And you if you look at Williamsburg that forms, the historic triangle together with Jamestown and Yorktown and the heart of all that is colonial Williamsburg, which is a historic district. But also, it's like a living history museum because you actually have actors they're in period costume who showed how what fly on a daily basis in colonial life there in the streets, and the taverns stores have workshops, and in addition to that, we have all kinds of parks, and museums and. Churches, and of course, college college of William, and Mary, and we have the beauty of the colonial Parkway and James river, your town beach chicken hominy river. So there's so much to see and you're close to Virginia Beach Richmond in Washington DC and forget, the grandchildren. Right. If you have grandchildren, and you're retiring here, we have Busch gardens water country, farmers market cetera. Speaking of farmers markets of are there, any specialty items food wise that people would wanna make sure all you gotta try the such and such down there Williams for. Yeah. We have excellent restaurants, in fact, whenever I have clients here. I give them a restaurant list. Oh, good. Because we have so many nice restaurants, and my favorite and go to places way point. It's very European and it's just excellent. The chef there chef Hans Schodler used to be at the Williamsburg inn. And he was a chef there for many years, and has even been the chef for presidents, but we have other restaurants likely Jakko, which is French and fat canary, which is very very famous because it's right there and merchants square and the Williamsburg in you have to see the waiver were again, of course, the Queen stayed there. A few years back. Law which is. Yeah, I'm sorry. Do you have to Kurt see when you go in because she? Because she. Oh, yeah. I guess when she was there some people probably did. And you've got the Lahti under which is Spanish, we have all kinds of things. Steakhouses opus nine is kind of like a Ruth's, Chris our answer to Reuss, Chris. And we have a place called a chef kitchen where you can watch them cook in front of you. And there. So. Yeah. Yes. So just great places. We have a Greek kitchen too, which is fabulous and little pubs like the hounds tail pub, and if they really want something historic go, people could go to the Christiana Campbell tavern and see what it was like, you know, eating back in the colonial days. So do you have on not recreation historic places, but real historic places plantations and things like that that actually are not reproductions. They are the real thing. Yes. Yes. We do Debbie. We have the governor's palace. We have Jamestown settlement. We have a place called the George with house which was built in the seventeen hundreds and George with was one of the signers of the declaration of independence. We have the Bruton parish Piscopo church, which is famous, and we have the college William, and Mary boy, there's a lot. This is not a weekend trip for sure. Well, a lot of people. Enjoy staying here for a week. I can tell you. Stay busy. Yeah. I'm taking it. There's a lot of hotels in the area where people could stay for an extended. Visit. If they wanted to really check out the the area. Absolutely. There are some nice hotels here. I mean, of course, the best place would be the Williamsburg inn at beautiful, and there's also place call web more place, which is out by the waves, Berg winery, and that is just a charming place to stay, and we have a lot of other hotels around at Kingsmill, for example, has resort cottages ever resort program there. So you can stay at Kingsmill and their town shares timeshares at Ford's colony so you could stay there, and we have hotels like Hiltons and. Well, it sounds like there's no excuse for not coming. That's right. That is true on the topic of stained for while where would be the closest airport. Lissi somebody's flying up from Texas or California in wants to fly in it see things where would be the closest airport that they would fly into well, they would probably fly into Richmond or to Williamsburg, Newport, News international airport. They're both international airport. But Wayne's news airports about thirty minutes away from where I am and also Richmond, which is my personal favorite which is forty minutes away because you can just pull right up, and you know, valley park and run in, you know, it's just charming small airport. Absolutely. Well, I can tell by your enthusiasm that you're glad you moved to Williamsburg. I think it's obvious because you have been there ten years, but what's your favorite saying about the Enron? I mean, I'm making you narrow it down to one. But if you have to it's okay. Okay. Well, that is so tough. Yeah. That's tough too. Because I love so much about Williamsburg. But I loved it. I live on a creek in Kingsmill which runs into the James river. I love being near the beach. We have our own beach in Kingsmill, I love having the Wayne's winery close by all the amenities. The -bility to just jump in the car and go to concerts and theater and Christmas is absolutely gorgeous with horsedrawn carriages and lights, and I love sitting outside at restaurants on a nice day. And and you know, we have another little airport called the Williamsburg Jamestown airport, and you can go there and have lunch and watch the small plane. So I like doing that to my goodness. There's so many things it's like having a master list. Just from this. But so tell tell the listeners at when how they can get in touch with you if they're thinking about moving to Williamsburg and need somebody who really has the expertise to show them around figure out from I've taken afford, what kind of lifestyle are you looking for give the website, maybe an Email address that would be awesome than people could to contact you. If they're internal though it sounds to me like most everybody already knows about Williamsburg. But I wanna make sure that people who are in other areas would also be able to find out, and they could contact you and Ellen's not a sales pitch e type person. She loves the location, and she's happy to share her excitement about the area with you. So I feel confident that she's gonna do a great job showing you around. But you go ahead and give us the website and Email address Ellen. Sure. The website is WWW dot Williamsburg realty of VA. That's F VA dot com. Williams for Williamsburg realty of VA dot com, or you can even call us at the office. My Email address is Ellen at Williamsburg realty of via dot com are office number is seven five seven nine zero three zero four five zero. That's absolutely great in Allen. I'm so glad you were able to take some time out of the busy schedule in your day. And talk to us about all the excitement makes me want to come back and visit I haven't been down here two years. So you may see me show up at your door myself because I haven't I have wonderful memories of taking my kids down there when they were young my son. Just absolutely loves the cannons going off at the Jamestown. On site and just going to Williamsburg ways to go to the pottery while it without manner. You know, it's still there. But we used to love rebuilt building a little older, you know, it was a long time. Debbie. I would love to have you come here and show you around and have to come down this weekend. You never know Ellen. Debbie so much for having me on your show. You're coming on and talking to the people to get a real flavor for what it's like in Williamsburg. And it sounds like there's something for just about everyone. No matter if it's places to go restaurants to eat in or places to live. It's it's all there in Williamsburg. And I do appreciate your time. And thank you very much. Thank you so much, Debbie. You're very welcome. Thank you. Okay. Thank you. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye.

Williamsburg Debbie Miller Williamsburg realty Williamsburg inn Ellen Smith Williamsburg Jamestown airport Berg Virginia Christopher Newport university Williams Mary boy golf Christopher Newport James river Florida ODU Allen Richmond Thomas Nelson community colleg Newport News
Lab 015: Big Poll Energy

Dope Labs

29:14 min | 1 year ago

Lab 015: Big Poll Energy

"Thing is providing technology access and hands on learning experiences to students across America so more students are ready for tomorrow learn more at verizon dot com slash we know access is important and when students don't have access to technology that they need they are not as competitive in the workforce of the future to help change this verizon innovative Hiney yeah it says a poll of Democratic voters in Iowa New Hampshire in South Carolina and so sometimes people the more people and that leads us right into today's topic polling there's a lot of polls out there and we see them all we're gonNa tell you everything we know about polling we're going to ask all of our questions about polling because I mean the election season is upon US Bernie Sanders not only put out like campaign ads and things like that but they're also buying results from survey firms and they're going to start to look at this data about this happens every year around Halloween of pie charts in right scatter plots when you need a lion plot and I want to say hey that's not right but today we want to bring you the facts soon as October hits and now Halloween candy is the market everybody becomes a great debater about the best Halloween candy full size family size has Bernie Sanders in Elizabeth Warren as the top candidates and it says here are the top five candidates after the first debate but if you zoom in pinch to zoom that is so yes and that's it three trick or treaters and good night's right but it's so interesting to me that people will do these polls a you know your little tim followers all of us and put it out there and they're going to say this many percent of Americans do this and this is why you should vote for me so just delayed as crooked media poll have you seen this one from spotify studio this is dope labs based off at ten people iota inference is that's not how polls work does not how it works you need more people we don't believe we don't believe you are these polls and this is what Americans think like this is from three states sub group of a subgroup even asphalt from the biggest states or the most part the first of all I don't care what grocery store are you going to give out rotisserie chickens that's crazy I'm having three related states nobody in my family lives in any of these states and so what we're trying to do with this episode is give you all the necessary information that you need to be able to look at time sometimes you're not aware that you are looking at poll data and it's right in front of your face a lot of y'all share memes you got bar charts where you should I will answer I'm only saying because I got about seventeen but followers will answer and then people will it's official lookie way is out of here and I'm like eighty five million and donations Elizabeth Warren got like twenty one million donations they're taking that money and they're gearing up and what are they going to start doing is they're going to start using that money tonight we're talking about candy corn has such a great flavor I also saw a poll on twitter somebody whose name westernmost trash candy and everybody said you gotta get Milky Way Out of there anyway sums wrong with everybody Milky Way is a very good candy favorite Candy Three Musketeers. That's good I like a good nougat visit okay so now that we know what we want to know let's get into the dissection this week we are jumping into polls as you know and we asked Dr Ray you get polling about public policy issues you can get polling that about market research issues I mean companies will use polling determined product placement or some of this stuff and say I honestly what that meant and find the real daddy self yeah and if you're like me you're wondering who are those people the next paragraph divider so I think I have so many questions like can just anybody issue a poll and put this information out abate we also have a tip about how you can make sure your voice is heard so let's get into the recitation of questions about it because I see a lot of polls being instagram and on twitter without any of that qualifying information where did you get these people from how many people did you serve a win did you survey them and even if the information is there ritual Bitta coffer to help us out on the Assistant Director of the Watson Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University and senior research fellow at the Niskanen Center DC the types of advertising they want to use for their products polling used in crossed every sector we're constantly pulling each other every day like anytime somebody put out anything reliable information what am I right which polls should I take with a grain of salt and which posted I drink with saltwater you see like how where people are falling on it you know another poll that just popped into my head it's always in the toothpaste commercials where it's like nine out of ten dentists choose call people are out like that like I love it you know so it's like you when you look in the comments section of a post on the shade room or TMZ or anything poppulation and through a process called waiting that does tell you within a certain window what the preferences of that broader ever we bring up holes everybody jumps right to thinking about elections but we know that pose can be about anything not all polling that elections for sure categories but different types of questions and approaches that election polling might cover depending on the goal of the survey I always see polls that show like people think this or the actual sample or people that you WANNA poll so the way that sampling works in a population is that you're taking a random sample of upon shen like if I'm seeing a bar graph it says like okay these are the top candidates blah blah blah. How do I make sense of that like well should I look forward to say that this is Seattle tiny it is and you just scroll past it and you're like Okay Sanders Warren but it was on the line to separate this all of those one thousand people to participate so what she's talking about with waiting is creating a poll that has the same demographic of the folks that you are trying so how many people do I need to survey right that becomes your survey sample size in order for it to be accurate representation of that entire to represent there are some survey firms that are still using what we call a random digit dialing for voter surveys and I would argue that candidates are trending this way they're doing well with mothers they're doing well with veterans I how do you get down to the it is now these things are y'all giving out full size candy bars on Halloween On my house I saw a thing on twitter where somebody had given out rotisserie chickens are there certain places we should go when we're looking for polling data like when I want to know what's the latest trend you know where do you go for reliable information yeah and then if I'm seeing information undesirable to be registered to vote and they don't want to admit that they're not registered to vote and so when I think about that you know you say candy corn is great the mood like that I sometimes I'll just go through this person that's one this person like it that's one then going back and forth like we're running a running in my mind this is just an election poll so a poll in which you're trying to determine who's up and who's down or whether or not an election is going to be competitive wouldn't say there is necessary what we're trying to get you to see is you have to do your research on your population to make sure you're finding ways to ensure the credibility of your sample so you'll see the phrase likely voters in got a population of people eating candy we might say there are people who eat candy who don't like chocolate people who eat candy who love chocolate people candidate are allergic to nuts right in that's not an ideal way because voters as it turns out when you call people and ask them are you registered to vote they will lie to you until yes because it's socially population is so if I want to say everybody eats candy in America Okay we know that this two million people I know that's not right but we know that's two million people unlike compared to what else right there's an asteroid and then it says like standard to pace I'm like I don't know what standard toothpaste and Degi really survey all out of pulse yeah and more people claim to vote than actually go out and vote when time comes and so part of the job of the the new good those things in the freezer for just a little bit I've never tried that hey step you gave I'm going to I'm and I'm Kia me they may judge me and so they'll change answer another con so now that kind of captures the essence of deciding who you will the dentists how many dentists there's a lot of different types of polls I think the one that we are most used to sing is an election poll and that's what Dr Crawford calls or a Horse race a horse Russians aren't leading you really want to have questions that are worded in a way in which are getting responses that are a product of the questions so for example as the me I love to be at the extremes we know my answer is always strongly agree or strongly disagree hate it ah yes or no right that's not a good survey question so when you create questions like this you're basically generating was I agree nor disagree people are more likely to choose that because they don't want to do anything that's like I guess controversial in their mind they just WanNa ride that middle on that you bet I can think of situations where you've loved stuff and then hated it way are these people people uninformed any I can't think of a single example where acid I hate it something and then I guess have you say do your love my outfit Yes or no that's leading you're leading with we should love the outfit are y'all GonNa open population of candy eater right because you're not gonNA get all two million people to participate right and even if you say okay I need to ask a thousand people in order to understand what two million people think you're not gonna get and somebody might say a because they feel like oh well in my county everybody's voting for a and I don't want to come out and say I voted for be that might be embarrassing somebody may here did it offered always first you might not get an accurate estimation on the race because people will choose the first candidate more often jesse or I don't really love it and I say that's you you do that too I don't really hate or really love so you'll say I hate this and then be like oh I guess it's not that bad is called a push poll this is something that pushes the respondent to answer in one way as opposed to the other SAR next suggestion it's not provide an easy out answer so a loved it this is the best thing I've ever seen I was just having this conversation with my friend now like I thought you said you hated that she said when I say I hate something I don't really hate it that's something that's like if you have a bunch of different you have a question you have a bunch of different answers and it ranges on a scale from agreed to disagree having something in the very center that says role in getting your sample but what about what you'll ask them that's very important the first thing you can do when designing a survey is to make sure that how the computer would do it or whatever and so people got hip and then they started rotating the answers another reason to get these standardized tests out of here all of these factors contribute to a higher response rate response rate refers to the percentage of people that you are trying to survey that actually complete the survey comes to designing good surveys is to rotate your answers so each person taking the survey will see the answers in a different order because believe it or not people those things we want to capture that in our survey we wouldn't want to only get people that are allergic to nuts because then that would make that that group of people over reputable so with the first response disproportionately so you've you have say you have a horse race question and you have the one cannon because it's mentioned I bet reminds me of like an sat when they were like Oh always choose C. scantron and stuff and Trans everything and people the point now love to hate yes that's an easy progression star everyone has day of the election they're they're basing a lot of stuff off of exit polls so people will go in and they'll cast their ballot and they'll come out and they say who did you vote for a or B legit and connectivity necessary success without access they will not be competitive in the workforce waiting for them to help change this verizon innovative learning is providing more schools are connected to the future learn more at verizon dot com slash verizon innovative learning we're back and we're going to get into how to yeah the last hip we got is to make sure your survey is short and to the point I don't WanNa read this paragraph right so if it's long I'm probably won't even participate does not to just take that as a face value but to go and look at the survey and say okay how was the sample taken I love llamas so you'll say oh I'll definitely vote which is a con and that's why I don't like exit polls out here line they're like oh well the exit poll even on the day students and under resource communities lack access to analogy infused education by giving technology access and hands on learning experiences to students and training to teachers across America so more students are ready for tomorrow would default to see because they're like oh when they're making these exams you're more likely to get the right answer you choose e because of whatever reason I don't know if that's need through all of these polls and find the right information right there's so many holds out there every week I feel like there's a new article telling me about the latest updates for who's ahead so now we know how to get the right population for a survey in how to design good questions to ask them when we come back we're gonNA talk about making sense of the results that's exasperated a lot by small end size study you really have issues with margin of error when you have a small sample size in my field that I work and we call that uncertainty ooh and so the short of the survey the better so those are our top pointers for designing a survey you may be asking why designing questions so important and over the last few decades especially as people have become more technologically diverse response rates have been declining Linda point. Dd You know thirty minutes answering all these questions like on a scale of one to ten what would you know asked me one question was experience good or not and so it's basically saying that when you take a measurement so let's say it's some you're trying to weigh ten pounds five hundred completes for a survey to be reliable statistically and size is the number of people that complete the survey and sizes important for all Sir and if you have a uncertainty that's plus or minus five pounds that's a that's a large range that means that when you're wearing has a number of people you won't get enough respondents and that's why you know now when you call your cell phone provider and they want they want to do a quick survey at the end of the call do I know whether or not there any good when a poll comes across the TV and you know the journalists go forty five percent of Americans love kind of ties into the last episode of social cognition like how do people perceive you exhaust if somebody's at polling you you're like what are they going to think of me and it may change the response that you get Ulster's is to try and find those people who will actually go out in vote as opposed to the people who will just say they're voting but stay at home also this shown on MSNBC and CNN this cycle that her you're close to five hundred Technically speaking of course you can get a they're like it's just one question I hang in there there was starting to catch on it's like I'm not GonNa talk on the phone to a computer for WHO's dropping out who's favorable I don't know how to make sense of it and as someone who watches academic polls twitter polls politicals and oils. Id polls how you Arizona you the results would only get from their perspective right and so we'll be out of here then exactly they can't even have them exactly so basically over love to you are a ghost side to that man sorry to this man who third tip that Dr Bitta coffer gave us when how uncertain are you about this statistic and then the other part of that is your confidence level in so I think confidence level is sequel because it also has to do with the number of people that you survey but I don't know what they might call this in your feel but confidence level is like thirty percents don't recommend that for anybody that has mild or extreme peanut allergy go to your doctor so as consumers of poll data we have to go in s because if you don't have if you have long questions that people don't want to participate that affects your response rate is so all that work you trying to figure out what's the right sample size hysterical response off a lower end size but in terms of horse race polling there's this statistical problem called the merging of era surveys the larger end size the more reliable the outcome of the survey is and there are many surveys that have gotten you know Primo attention some real questions about how the data was collected one of the things is did the survey cast a wide net like that survey I showed you earlier yeah like this every if it's online they done due diligence to try to make their panels randomized as much as possible are they being refilling swayed by it you should want to know more information about it if you're smart connoisseur you can look at the data and understand okay you know I might not be over our confidence level your margin of error could be really really small like a pound so you can say this thing is ten pounds plus or minus one pounds so that means it could be nine pounds take this to the bank I probably can't say for certain candidate a has forty five percent of the vote but I can say the candidate you thought you were leading allergic to peanuts I told you it's allergy I still eat it say a is somewhere near forty five percent of the vote and if candidate B. is at forty and candidate as forty five and the margin of error is three nine to thirty one percent of MOMS choose if you're going to have to sample way more way more mom yet to get that type of accuracy so you're saying that so margin of error consider when looking at poll data less take this information and apply retroactively right what happened in two thousand sixteen yes points I can say with some statistical confidence that candidate a is indeed leading candidate B. so now that we know all that we should uh-huh choose Jif and if I'm ninety five percent confident then that means that ninety five out of one hundred times that I do this survey thirty percent of miles will choose jif transparent about their methodology and the design effect anytime you see a poll there should be something at the bottom of that tells you where

verizon America Arizona twitter Seattle Dr Ray instagram Niskanen Center DC Christopher Newport University senior research fellow Assistant Director shen Sanders Warren Watson Center for Public Polic Ulster MSNBC CNN forty five percent ten pounds ninety five percent
Ep 67: Kaitlyn Vincie of Fox Sports (RWP)

The Down and Dirty Show

00:00 sec | 2 years ago

Ep 67: Kaitlyn Vincie of Fox Sports (RWP)

"There's firefighter Raphael poor yet for firehouse subs. Introducing new firehouse pairs pair, your favorite small sub with a signature side, like the awesome, five cheese, MAC and cheese. And remember a portion of every purchase at firehouse subs goes towards helping first responders firehouse subs. Enjoy more subs saved. More lives. Participating locations only firehouse subs. Donate a minimum of one million dollars in two thousand nineteen to the firehouse subs public safety foundation by donating point one one percent of every purchase. Hello again. Welcome to the racing writers podcast. I'm your host Kelly Crandall, this episodes, sixty seven volume sixty seven however, you want to call it. And we've got a great conversation and extended conversation from what we're used to here on the podcast. So I want to jump right into it. Caitlyn Vinci is the pre-race hosts for the gander outdoor truck series on Fox Sports one. She spent the last four years on pit road and has made that transition into the studio this year as the pre-race hose, and we're gonna talk all about that any ton of other stuff. Again, we talked for about an hour. So this is an extended conversation. It was a blast. She's a great I've known her for quite a while. You're going to hear all about that. So I want to jump into the episode. I hope you guys enjoy it. Please. Let me know what you think leave a rating review reach out to me on Twitter and apologies for not having this out has expected on this Monday morning. But here it is. And I think it's going to be worth the wait. So let's get right to it. Episodes. Sixty seven racing writers podcast. Here's Caitlyn Vinci. All right Kaelin when you said you were going to do this. And I was thinking of doing this with you. I've been trying to wrack my brain to remember exactly how we came across each other. Because it's been a few years. I was thinking about that earlier today. And I don't recall. I mean, we're born the same day. We always joke about I honestly, don't remember how we first cross paths. I'm sure it was on Twitter. That's where all good things. Come to be. I don't think it was Bleacher report. It might have been though, I feel like one minute. I wanna say yes, it was. And then the next minute. I'm like, no, I really don't think it was. But I mean, we have known each other for a really long time. Now when I actually sit here and think about it. Well, that's because was getting old. I was like I'm going to have on the puck. And I was like, wait a minute. Like, I know I've known this person for a long time. I just can't remember how we met where did she come from? Yeah. That's so you don't know either. Now, I don't I don't feel so bad. Then. Let's talk about your current role. I want to start with you have taken a I think big step this year. You're now the pre-race host for the truck series. So from how is that transition, Ben? I mean, you're still in front of the camera, but it's a little bit different. It is very different. You're right. You know from doing pit road for the last four years for the trucks. It's just totally different. Because when you're on pit road, you're in the elements, you're constantly interacting with two teams. The crew chiefs the drivers now you kind of take a step back from that. And you're in the studio, and I'm alongside Todd Bodine, and Jeff Hammond, and they're great and are funny. They have really good report with each other. So I've really enjoyed getting to work with them more. And you know, obviously Todd he's a two time champion in the truck series. He has a tremendous amount of racism pretty much every track we go to always feel like he has good insight that he always can bring to the table. Same with Jeff obviously from all of his experience as a kooky. But yeah, for me personally, it is different. And it's different because of our new digital set, obviously. So FOX introduced that. This season, and you are truly sitting in there and a green room. Like, there is nothing around you you have a desk and your to other people, but they could put us on a beach in Hilton Head island for all we know that could be the background behind as they can do anything, which is pretty neat. It's just it did take a little bit of time. I guess to sorta get used to the fact that you have nothing around you except for giant green walls. How weird is that? It is. It's funny when when they kept hyping and showing the promos of how they were redoing the set, and like they would show like what it would look like. But then when they would take the graphics off. And you realize it's just a green screen. I'm like, oh my God. That is so weird. It is. And it's a huge room. I mean, you can ever get a chance to come by FOX or if you already have seen the old studio. So I'm trying to picture of like how they eat in it bigger than that. I mean, I don't know how many square feet it is but knock down some walls and stuff. Yeah. Well, we always had that studio. I think they used it for other shows back in the day. But it was kind of a warehouse sort of feel like they. Stored. A lot of props and stuff for the set in their completely cleared it out now, it's just three giant green walls the floor is green. But I had a funny moment before the racist past weekend for Texas because I'm looking at there's three monitors in front of you still. So you can see what the viewers are actually seen and they had put up this really cool, Texas like style looking flag behind us. And I want to go. That's cool. That's not there. Like, I literally turned around to look at it. And I remembered it's not actually there. I just I I love how they did it. But it I I'm trying to think from your perspective in race hub. And like all these shows that they're doing, and I'm like that has to be so weird just sitting there in front of a giant and green screen. It's weird become a graphics person. I love to just like, I'm a visual learner unlimited graphics. I love to see what's on the screen. So now realizing that you have nothing behind you. Yeah. But, but it is interesting because you said you have the screens in front of you. So you can still you can see what they're looking at yet. And if you notice like, the talent has tablets in front of them, which also there's a teleprompter for the host tablet, and then on the other one you're truly seen with viewers are seeing so we still have those as reference points, and when you're talking to your analysts, it's almost like you don't even notice that there's green around you. So well, I think most of us will say that it hasn't really changed the way we do our jobs. It's just it. It looks different the final product looks different. But I've really enjoyed seeing a lot of those graphics and things come to life, and they have the cars come out of the floor and the way they can show the banking the track. And there's a lot of neat elements to it break the magic for me in one sense. Because one of the things I'm curious about is it it's is it one level or two because there's times when you're not going to because there's times where it looks like they're like upstairs, something so break the veggie for me. I'm gonna I got to like, totally expose the secret here. It's it's one level may have explained this, and I just missed it. But I see it. I'm like, wait a minute. Yeah. Upstairs. I'll be looking in the rundown on all see like where it says balcony location, and I'll know at that point. They're going to be putting us up stairs in air quotes. That's what I mean. Right now. I'm like, wait a minute. I don't remember there being a house there. I had that same question, actually, initially. I was like we do we have two stories or is it truly just you guys can float us up there. And that's what it is. Okay. What going back to win. So you you had said you did pit road for four years. You you many grain in the truck series. You've been at the race track in and right there in front of the camera. What was your reaction? When they said, okay, we're making the switch like do you get a phone call? You get pulled into a meeting or like, how did it go down? And what was your reaction when now they said, okay? You're the host. Yes. This is your gig. Now, it was before Christmas, and my boss, one of my bosses Steve credit called me and told me, and I like got choked up on the phone because it was a big moment for me. It was something I had been working for for a long time. And he basically just said, hey, you know, next season, we want you to be our hosts for the pre ratio for trucks, that's going to be part of your responsibility as in still doing reporting. Obviously for Ray sub and things like that. So I was surprised I had hoped that. Maybe that would happen for me. But I didn't know for sure, you know, there had been a lotta changes kind of happening throughout the course of the off season. Obviously, as you know, they've brought a lot of new people in this season two. So I didn't really know what they had in mind for me. I had made a case for myself to to be the host for that shows. Like, hey, you know, I think I wanted to. That. And it was a thirty minute show. And I thought it was a great kind of starting spot to get your feet wet and be a solo hosts because that's hard. You know, when you have a co host, at least, you kind of have somebody out there with you in case, everything goes. You know goes he goes haywire. But when you're by yourself, it's all on your shoulders kind of carry this show. And I think pre ratio there that is a lot of responsibility because you are getting the viewers amped up and ready for this big event, and you to do your job and really building that up and and telling those stories right for the race. And it takes a certain kind of energy in persona to to do those types of shows. So I was excited though. I, and I'm really just kind of honored to get to do this for a living as I'm sure you feel the same way it, it's an awesome job. And there's never a day that goes by them like I don't love this because I do love it every day. I love it. But there are days where like six AM. I'm like I want to go back to bed while. Yeah. True. Doing this to myself. I do understand that the schedule and the hours. There's there's just times where it's like, man. I don't want to do anything today. Yeah. No. I understand that. I would say I associate you mostly with. Truck series. And again you did do for years of pit road. But but you have done race hub. You've done a little bit of other pre ratios in and whatnot. Was it a conscious decision to to put yourself mostly on the truck side of things or was that just how your career path went when you got associated with FOX. It was it was a conscious decision because I wanted to do pit road initially. And I knew the best price starting place for me to do it would be the truck level. And so obviously I have done like I said for years with them. But I've also done extremely pit road before as well. I've done Arca ided Canaan way back in the day. But yeah, since then a lot of the main reporting too, I did was for the pre ratio race day. I did that a lot an I used to do the race of weekend shows pretty frequently as well before I was hosting now that I'm hosting I'm more based in Charlotte. So that is probably the biggest change not being at the racetrack. As much is different. After you've spent seven years doing thirty plus weekends a year. I it's funny. You say that because I think. Some people like were I was quick to think about that. When it comes to Larry mcreynolds right because it's always been in the booth as always been at the race track. And he's he's your guy right there. And yeah, it's the same for you. Because I keep saying you spent four years on the road. And now you're not like you're not at the racetrack. Obviously when it comes any the truck stuff like you think you'll get to the racetrack at all anymore think. So when the second half begins an NBC takes over we still are doing our pre show race day, and our our weekends where we obviously right now, we have so many reporters and people already out there for FOX. But the second half of the year, you know, thing in Daytona are Indy or places like that where it's not a companion with trucks. I have said I would still like to be doing the field reporting. So I think that will happen which is good for me because you couldn't get the best of both worlds and on race up during the week. I'm still always interviewing a driver crew chief some shops. So they see me, and you're not completely out of the picture and not have a pulse on what's happening. You know, I think a lot of people are maybe from a fans perspective is like you don't think about like from for our jobs like how important it is to be at the racetrack scene for sure if you're big event, if you're not seen outta sight outta mind. Yes. Exactly. Like I hate not being at the racetrack. Really? It's it's terrible. I'm going this weekend, by the way. It's a great place to go to I love Bristol. Yeah. I know. So I've started working for them a little bit this year doing kind of recap videos via Instagram. They just kinda came to me one day. And was like, hey, would you be interested in doing this? And this little fifteen minute recaps. But it's great for me. Because I love that race shacking. I'm not trying to be partial or play favorites. Now, we all have are. They are they put on a great show both races. So I of course, was like, yes. So I'm doing a couple of things for them this weekend at the track being so ingrained in trucks. I'm curious from your perspective. So like one of the problems, I have when I first started in the sport. Like, I did everything right? Like, I covered trucks extremely every practice and all. Conferences, and I was just so ingrained in wanting to know everything about all three series my role with racer is a little bit different. Because the main focus is a Cup series. If I'm obviously I pay attention because it is our sport of what's going on in the other series. But I don't have to really I don't really have to do anything. So I have found myself now feeling like, I don't know everything, and I have found myself feeling like I'm behind when it comes to those other series. Okay, or perspective. If you if you kind of see where I'm going with this like with you being so ingrained in trucks. Do you feel like, you know, still enough about all the other series or do you feel like the trucks? Now stands above like, you're you're knowledgeable of trucks is gonna is better than one Cup and expenditure. Always kinda was because it was my main thing you're doing every race here during the practices. You're doing the qualifying pre race you're doing the race. So I've always felt that way about trucks is that I had to put in a tremendous amount of preparation for that particular series the Cup series. Obviously is the same situa-. Nation. You know, what's nice about that is like I said I have involvement with the Cup series during the week. So even if I'm not the track like, I spoke with Eric Jones yesterday didn't interview him. And that's the thing is like because you're still doing stuff for the other series. When it's like, it's not as much as truck. So I was just wondering if like mentally you ever feel your mind, I was going to say when it comes to Finnity I feel very behind because I don't do too much with that series. Of course, I still I watch every race. And I always kind of know the story lines that came out of it. But sometimes I do feel behind with them because we don't regular, you know, I very rarely do pit road for them. I think I've done maybe four racists for expanding and not a lot. So I kind of feel bad for those guys 'cause I'm like, wait a minute. Who's who won? I mean, I do the best. I it's a lot of stuff as you know, it is so much stuff is such this. It's not like football like in this sport. I mean, there is so much practice and so much qualifying and so many drivers and like my cross all three theories, and then you have three races a lot of the times three races a weekend. It's a watt. And then you have those teams and team members and crew cheese team owners, and it's like who's in trouble this week whose financial whose financial so I have to go through who's getting suspended who has a really good story. We haven't talked about like it is true a lot even just going into a race weekend. You know, I I get asked a lot by other people who are journalists brother sports like what is it like with NASCAR? And I'm like there are so many variables going into any given weekend as you said even just what type of track it is the banking the tire compound the setup and the football field doesn't change change. Just the track itself has a ton of changes from week to week. We've got different packages packages is running here and rule change. Phone I feel like in the truck series. Like the drivers are always changing from week to week. I look at an entry list. And I'm like hell is this person? I've never heard that before. I'm. It is it's hard. And you know, what I think Merola the story is congrats to us for being able to do it. Because it's so hard sport to cover that you get asked by other journalists like I've never been asked by like outs. Like like, I've been asked by like fans on like outside outside influences. But never like somebody who covers a different sport. I would love to have that conversation because I want to know from their end like two you have it easy. Well, I would love to hear their argument of why they're jobless are because I went and did supercross for two season. That's right for a super cross races. Which is my first time covering different sport that wasn't Askar. So I learned a lot from that whole experience, and I kind of talked to the other reporters and analysts who who covered supercross, and we would have these sort of conversations and supercross was very simplified compared to NASCAR. You know, what I mean because it's a three hour broadcast window. You have the heat races Elsa Q, the Maine's the two fifty four fifty class. And that's it. I mean, and we didn't we did not broadcast their qualifying or the practice or anything like that. We did a qualifying show for online only. But it was it was just simpler, it was just a two day show every week. You know, you're kind of you're in you're out you do your job. It is very laid back like you can approach any rider pretty much at any point as long as you have a good relationship with them. And they're comfortable with you, of course. But it's very laid back. And it's a great sport. I loved it. I think I mean, it's look it's a separate conversation that we could have about oversaturation and NASCAR with everything that we broadcast, and I know that like you working for FOX probably don't like to hear about. And also hearing like how laid back like drivers are a supercross because like I wanna go cover an IndyCar race. Because I have heard it is so different from NASCAR from a media perspective. Because like we're always talking about like driver access and NASCAR. Right. And like the fans are you talking about like, you know, we want to hear more from drivers in we the meteorology. Hey, we'll talk to a driver. And then I hear people who cover any guard. And it's like they just all sit out on pit road. And I'm like, wow. That is different like. Can't we do that here? Hard. It is hard. Yeah. I mean, the accident. I wanna talk to more people who cover other sports because it's like it's so interesting to get that different perspective. That's how I felt because it was still in the motor sports family you. So there's a lot of comparisons that I can draw to the two. Why I didn't think anything of it? Because I was like why? No, she's on supercross. But like how different gonna be? Yeah. It was an different in good ways. Of course, you know. But I I love both the sports says not like one is better than the other. It's just it's fascinating to me to see. How different the two entities can be and is still the same traveling circus every people that the same people that are every week that that do the setup and get the dirt ready, and the you know, all that stuff, which is kind of neat. But there's definitely an energy to the supercross races. That I just thought was it was very palpable. You know, it's a lot of young people seems like a lot of west coast events. I say, it seems like that type of racing attracts a lot more kids and like younger fans, it does for sure. And I don't know. I'm not well one thing I would say is they have the small like children's league that will race. I mean, these kids like are not that much older than my double. Maybe they can start really really young, but you can to NASCAR. But they actually do. Event with these young writers during the race. And we never actually televised. It it's it usually happen in a commercial break. But yeah, we would show some, you know, coverage of it. Like, here's the young person who won the the little the kids raise sano if that's part of it. Or what I've watched a little bit more over the over the past year or so because I know a lot of folks NASCAR getting more into it. And my parent is is really into a lot of dirt stuff. Now, he's actually working with world about law. So he's all out dirt. Now like, I've watched a little bit of it. And I'm like, all right. I get it. Although he did yell at me one night because we were watching and they got like they got like kind of like, I talk it NASCAR terms. So they got really strong out. And like nothing was happening for fifteen minutes. And I'm like, I turn them. And I'm like that's like the whole length of the events fifteen minutes. Well, it felt like fifteen minutes, and I'm gonna turn them and I'm like. Houses any different from NASCAR and always passing anybody. And I thought he was going to like throw me out you remember what race it was. It was like one of the earlier ones to seize it one of the flaked first or psychosis. Second. I don't know. Yeah. And that doesn't happen. I have to change my brain a little bit happens. But with a lot of the ones I covered I feel like it was really close racing action because the events are so short tiny five minutes enjoyed the the last couple. They've been very entertaining. Maybe I was just being a little better than I for some reason because everybody's all excited about this. And I was thinking again, I think and ask our perspective. And I was like, well, this is no better than like what we're doing it. Yeah. I'm with you. I want to back up for a minute. I know I know how you got to where you are short tracks to NASCAR you did videos and all that type of stuff, but I'm curious how exactly you got into racing. Because I mean, I don't know much of like your that background from you like, I don't know if it was a family thing or like just a bug that you caught. So I was I was more curious if like how exactly you got into racing. So when I was in college at Christopher Newport university, which is outside of Virginia Beach. It's not far from Richmond raceway, and my group of friends that I hung out with in college. A lot of them really like. Nascar. And so I had never been to a race ever. But I remember it was a big deal. It was a big affair for all of us to go down tailgate go to the race. And I absolutely loved it from that point forward. And I was able to get pit passes. Maybe like a year later to the all star race at what was Lowe's Motor Speedway now, Charlotte and even more. So like, this is really fascinating. I just I've found the whole intricacies of the garage area. Very interesting, and I each team and each crew member had their job and knew what they were. It was just like organized chaos down there, and I'd always had an interest from high school of doing sports journalism. But when I was in college as a teenager. I said I don't think I want to do sports I wanna just do NASCAR. And I truly decided on that path at about nineteen years old. So then when you that leads into my next question, then when you said, okay, I want to do NASCAR. Like at the time. What was like your commit like this? This is what I wanna do. Like, did you have it at the time? Like was it broadcasting was a pit road. Or is it something else? It was definitely broadcasting. I just I looked at you know, the Jamie Little's and the crista vote is of the world. And I said I wanna be like those women, and I think too I thought the more I got into NASCAR the more complex of sport. I realized it was I was like if I can make it in that sport. I will truly feel like I've accomplished something because this seems like a really hard sport. So learn to be able to talk about and seem like, you know, what you're saying. It seemed to me from an outsider. It was a lot of the same people for years. And I was like I bet it's because it's just really hard to get into it and to get accepted and be part of the group. So I looked at that as a big challenge for myself. And I just set the sights on that like I said when I was nineteen, and I did not stop until I made it. And so again, we're I think maybe that's what I we eventually like quote found each other is gonna I think we had very much of the same mindset is like once we realized this is what we wanted to do. It's like, okay, I'm not stopping I'm doing half. This exactly all of the weird ways and everything to to get to where we are. And I gotta lot of knows along the way. I mean, I was just again, I think that's why we connected, however shouldn't. Yeah. We we don't know. But I was looking back recently through old box. And I found this binder I had kept a business cards people on the sport and like ninety percent of them. Now, don't even work for the same companies anymore. But it's a lot of names you'd recognize if I sent him I kept all these business car. I was you know, networking with everybody possible to just try and find my way in. Oh. And it's funny to think back on it because now it was over a decade ago because I started in school kind of doing this stuff with the internships and on appeal don't realize this either. But I'll Pierce was probably the first person that really helped me with my career ever because he was a right will still is longtime contributing writer for autoweek. He lives up closer. I went to school and he was threatened with all of my immediate bosses at Christopher Newport university athletic communications department 'cause I was working for them as a paid intern. And they knew I was interested in NASCAR. And they said we gotta introduce you to help. Here's. And sure enough at a p this pizza place that they always went to every week. I started joining then on their like boys pizza day. And when I was writing NASCAR column, I would bring him my columns and have him read them. And like, what do you think of this is the sound get, you know, that type of thing, and he helped give me contacts and names and help put me out there. And he was a big part of it in the beginning. I feel like that pizza place or maybe some form of talian or something is is still a must for him. Because I think it was last year. When myself and my boyfriend Matt Weaver a few when we went to Langley for Hamlin's showdown raise. I think Al trying to convince us to go to lunch with him or something in that area is the exact same place. Okay. And I feel like it was the name. Is or like, it's like a female name. But I feel like that was where he was trying to get like I feel like that's just mentioned. I I guarantee my God something say nothing ever changes in this sport. It doesn't. He's the best though. He is such a great. I love him be great character just say, whatever he wants to say. And I wanna be like that. Yeah. Exactly. That's very endearing quality. I say a journalist. Ready? But. One of the cool things that you do is the women wheel segment, and I got to sit in on one a couple of months ago, and I don't want to give away the magic. But. I want to know how first off how did that that segment come to be because I think it's really important for fans of the sport to see. How many women are involved in racing? How did how did that? Get created so to speak. So we first began that when I was on track side, if you remember that show back in the speed channel days, our producer John Morris, who's producer race of now kind of said that he had this idea of something he wanted to do. So I started doing them God it's been years now. And then when that show went away became an entity on race. But yeah, it is really kind of grown into its own thing where I feel like when I approach women I say, hey, wanna feature you for women wheels. They are very honored and excited to be a part of it. We kind of have a new class every year of of women that we select. And I think we've told some really great stories. I always try to pick people who I know the viewers aren't from usually very familiar with. Of course, we had like Haley Degan last season and things like that. But you know, Amanda Ellis. We just featured her cheese someone that we all know in the industry, but the viewers will necessarily know what is that job? What does that job entail? When you did the one that I sat in on. When you did Lisa Hughes. Kennedy from Toyota, people fans, probably don't know who that is. Is. And I think you're gonna do Wendy belt from the NASCAR fans who now is with the NASCAR hall of fame, but has been in the sport for a long time doing other things. But people may not know who she is. They don't point. Yeah. So Wendy's we already shot hers. It's going to air in may around the Charlotte race weeks. Be a hers was interesting because we never featured someone from the hall of fame, which is such a big part of our sport every year, the induction and finding out who's going to be the inductees and things like that. And listening to her talk about what it was like with Jeff Gordon this past year was really neat. And Jeff Gordon was very complimentary. I thought of the efforts at the hall of fame to make that day feel special for him in his family. So she tells some great stories some excited to have hers air in a couple of months, but I do wish they could be longer. I know I wish my name show. I was gonna say I wish that like, okay? If if it's only three or five minutes on TV can we get like an extended version it on the website. Or did you look Sinica with Amanda Ellis that talked about her husband who works for Bush as a mechanic, and we sort of did a little sidebar bit about her with her dynamic of her husband being on the road and traveling to and they have a young son, obviously. So that aired somewhere on the social space. But yeah, there's always stuff that hits the cutting room floor, again, the people you're talking to normally have such a deep history that you can't cover it all like you have to obviously. And I get it like you have to cut it down for TV. But it's like man is so much more to these people than what they're being able to show you, and that's what's neat about our sport. Is there are so many people involved in it that truly there has never really a shortage of storylines. You just gotta dig and find them. You just got to know the people. There's always a good story somewhere there is and with the women. I think we've done a great job of showing that NASCAR is a place that. Accepts and welcomes women a whole lot of different capacities. PR sponsor relations engineers broadcasters media members, you know, it's a whole wide range now. And I think it's important for us as females in the sport to keep pushing that narrative to see more of us coming in because there isn't a lot of us. So I think it's important that we do stick together the ones that are here. So you mentioned how you'll approach these women and say you want to have them on. I'm curious what goes into the prep work for for these two. A are you the one that is approaching? It is is it your idea of who you want to have on. What is this process like to get that going, and then what's the prep-work from when you know, you're going into an interview. Because again, there's probably a lot of stuff you prepare for that. Then doesn't make right air. Yeah. So typically the way it works as I will already kind of have my eye on who ever. I think might be a good candidate and all sort of float the idea out to them either via phone call or when I see him at the racetrack, or whatever kind of gauge their interest level, which they are always. He's pretty excited. But a lot of have never been on camera before. So there is a hesitancy there with that. And then once we get it approved than we pitch it to FOX like everything that airs on FOX is pitched at features meeting of about twenty people. Whether it's editors producers are CPI Lindsey, Mandy a- everybody in it together. And you put we have this giant whiteboard that's full of ideas. And you kind of have to get everyone's thoughts on it. Especially the producers of hub and the coordinating producer. But tips your like it starts with you of laying. Okay. These are who I'd really love to have featured. Correct. And usually they trust me to make those decisions. So once they get approved. Then you go through the process of setting up the shoots, and I always do a phone interview with them beforehand to kind of go over different specifics. Weren't they go to school where they originally from? How did they really get into the sport, you know, because in your line of questioning you don't want it to be so broad that. It's just like, so how'd you get in the sport, you know, with Amanda? It was like I did with you like five minutes ago. Not. No. But like with Amanda just outright. Get to do this. I've never said it. So, you know, it's it's not common knowledge. But with Amanda, I knew she had gone her first race with her dad as a young kid. So that's kinda how I set it up to her and her actual interview 'cause I'd already pre interviewed her and I knew that. And I always find out interesting cool things about each woman in those pre interviews that always makes the piece that helps make the peace better. So that's kind of the process of how it goes down. That. I didn't realize it was that expensive like in the sense of like pre interviews and whatnot. I think. Again. I think the assumption be okay, just show up and roll the camera. And right here we go. Well, a lot more extensive than that. And I think it's my job as a broadcaster to make them feel comfortable. So I think if they've already had a pretty lengthy conversation with me, they feel more at ease. Because like I said a lot of them have never been on camera. So these women are, you know, behind the scenes and have never made themselves the center of attention. So it's feels unnatural for them. So I'm just trying to get them to feel comfortable. And like, hey, you deserve this moment. This is your moment to shine. You may have been falling drive around as bureau for years. But this isn't about him. It's about you. Do you think it also helps to in the sense of like, they also get an idea, and like understanding of like where you're going, and it helps them maybe like, sir them saying? Yeah. Think about it. Okay. Like what what maybe do? I really wanna talk about or like one story. So I have like they're more prepared when they especially if they haven't been on camera of exactly for sure, I think that's a big part of it as well. It just helps them be a little more prepared to kind of gather their thoughts and be like, all right. I know she's going to pry. Mention this this, and this I wanna make sure I hit this about my story kind of thing. All right Caitlin. I have to admit something. I hate a seeing you in and looking at you because you always your appearance and your brand so to speak always makes me feel like a bum. And then I have nothing in my life. So we need to talk about this. We need to talk about mostly because I'm gonna steal all your ideas about how exactly you have built up this following that you have. And why your Instagram looks perfect? And. Yeah, all this other stuff of how you you have built this this brand so to speak, and I'm going to go home and still have your ideas. Why I would say a big part of my brand is my family is my daughter is like this is something that like you consciously do though right? Like focus on like. Okay. Like, you have a blog, and you have a website. And and I'm going to share insight into my life and Instagram, and yet I mean, I feel like there's a lot of blogs out there. Right. But there's not a lot of them written from women who are truly working women that work all the time. I did saw that you that you that was a reason for the blog and then like Instagram like you just it's flawless. I hate you. I've learned some really good like photo editors that make the pictures. Really pop. That's probably what it is. I'm just again. I just I think I think you've just done a really good job of of of use the word brand like branding yourself. Like, I mean, obviously, you're going to have a following because you're on TV people are gonna are out there in the public. But when it comes to social media and stuff like water, some of the things that like, you you consciously try and do when it comes to like, maybe Instagram or Twitter or like how you present yourself on those spaces, right? I mean, I think on those spaces. It's a chance for people to see how I really am. And I think behind closed doors. I'm a person that loves music loves reading, obviously, lows my family, as I mentioned, those are probably the things I post about the most also fashion. I mean, like, I'm not gonna lie. I enjoy loss me there. I'm june. June. I like your hat, by the way. Yeah. KOMO like somebody else bought this because they know what's good. So I just was told to wear. Okay. Okay. But yes, I've had fun with it in that sense. I do have a lot of fun. Posting about my daughter because she's always doing stuff that is just I do enjoy that. Bizarre. And kind of like, okay, I got to share this at the world. Yes. Fondling stuff out all over the place. And yeah, just just doing her usual antics. It's really entertaining. I think parenthood is just entertaining. And it's been for me, you know, it was a very unexpected step in life. But it has been probably the best thing that could ever happen to me. Honestly. Yeah. So it's been fun to share that part of of myself and our family not too much. You know, I'm not one of these people that post picture there every day. But so you're not going to tell me when you're cooking dinner or cook. So yeah, I definitely won't see all right now. We're now your brownie points, speak in your language. I don't cook. In fact, I hate it. I I don't I have zero interest in Donut. I mean, my my family gets solicit. My family was telling me all the time when I went away for college. They're like, how are you going to like they were legitimately worried about me because they're like, I we don't know how you're going to survive on your own because we don't like they literally said, they don't think I knew how to do anything. So they were very concerned. Now, it's gotten to the point where my boyfriend cooks. So I'm even Lazier, and I don't even like, I don't and I don't even try and they get on me about that. And I'm like, look why do I have to if he is there? He will cook. Yeah. I will. I don't I don't mean to be in the kitchen trying to boil water just not. Here's this bring me. We all have our strong, suits. And does not want mind cooking and math. Oh, same like when they put on put math in the all star race. Like, I know. I was like this is way too convoluted. I'm confused by head is swirling. I was told there'd be no math. And then they put math in the also race. And I was legitimately going to write a letter to Steve O'Donnell in family and say that I was listened simplifies for me. Yeah. That's the only subject I got a D N in college. I found it twice in high school and had to take multiple classes before they let me graduate. So yeah. Yeah. I is Nick to letters. And what was actually on academic probation for sure of my university. I just I was not good in school. I was not prepared for it. High school is a breeze. College is not and it was a rude awakening for me. And I was an athlete, and I was bad a balancing it. And then I finally got it all turned around. I was on dean's list. Like the last couple of semesters in a row, but I struggled at first big time. I can't remember if I took I'm sure I had to I'm sure it was a requirement. But I feel like I didn't take a math class in college. Like, I I somehow managed to get out of that. How I should have been on your manager. Bruce, so terrible that I just completely blocked it out of my mind. I don't remember once you declare your major. I mean. Yeah. The stuff that's not imperative to it. You don't it of goes away? Point like, I thought I was a superstar already because I had a Twitter account. And I knew what I wanted to do in life, and I was writing for Bleacher report. And I was like I don't like these people don't statistics like going to class like they have no idea who I am like I don't need to be here. Like, I'm I'm on Twitter. I have like eleven dollars. I'm telling you have really changed your way more than that. Now. I do it's fantastic. I I don't know how I have that many. Because I talk about the most random stuff on because you're really good at your job. If you saw my tweet, but I tell everybody this a couple of weeks ago regarding even turn to me at the RND center because we were there for the rules briefing earns the me, and when Ricky craven terms, do you listen, you get little nervous. I was like oh my God. I off how the hell does he know me? And then I was like what is he going to say? And he's like, I just he's like on Twitter. And I just wanted to say that your your Twitter is. It's it's something or or whatever it was that he said, and I said, well, it's very collected. As I, you know, whether it's wrestling or books or raising the wrestling. He's like he's like, well, it's it's very real. I said, oh, it's real. That's a compliment though. There's so many people are completely manufactured in this business. And the fact that that many people still follow me when I'm on their bitching about your authentic scripted television shows such as wrestling, right? I mean, I think you're authentic, and that's what makes it interesting. Because like I said, it's real take, you know, take it or leave it. I mean, he actually likes that he enjoys phone you, and that's a compliment. I'll tell you have the Ricky craven seal of approval, I'm putting it on my resume, by the way, put that in your Twitter bio, Ricky craven compost. It's gonna put in my Twitter bio that I don't write headlines. Okay. Because as we were talking about social media Murtaugh, and I'm gonna ask you this. Like that is like the one big thing. I get on social media now is like people nitpick headlines. And I'm like, I don't like if I had a problem with my headlines like I was talking my editors I've never had a problem with headline. And the fact that people like come to me, I don't write headlines. So I'm just gonna put that in my Twitter bio, the I don't write headlines. All right headlines. Yeah. So someone writes in for you. Yeah. So I have a sweet deal with racer where I literally just have to write stories, and they take care of everything else. Okay. So they do pick him. For what the Henry the headlines, and they publish I just have to focus on writing. Do you think ever is just people have to complain about something? So I wanted to with with you because you have a much bigger social media following than I do. So I'm sure you have a lot of lovely people. But but we've gotta talk about criticism. Like, what were the biggest things people come at you at if they were to complain about something like again with me? It's just that I'm stupid, and I've no idea what I'm talking about. Or my head's recall, and you're on TV, something zooming. It's worse. It's always something about your physical appearance. God what you were if your nails weren't none. People will send you dumb crap. Like that. Really really solidifies my point that I should not be in front of a television camera. It's annoying because you always would love to see what the person looks like on the other end of the computer that is so quick to point out. What you maybe didn't have perfect that day. But I mean newsflashes really frigging hard to get it. Right. Every time, and it's a lot of work to maintain appearance and sound good and no your stats, and no it's a lot of work goes into it. And what you know what I would take it as a compliment of through all of that. The only thing they're complaining about is your fitness the physical appear. I I'm trying to think back if someone ever said, I got something wrong or said something incorrectly on the air. Nothing is really coming to mind. I'm sure they have nothing stands out. That's a good thing. I would take and I truthfully I don't really get overly bothered with some of that stuff. I used to allot. But now, it's just like you can't please everybody. I think in this sport. The biggest thing that I've learned is not like honestly is not how to do my job or any like the biggest thing I've learned in. This sport is how to have a fix skin on social media because social assures a big part of what we do it is. And there is going to be people on there who are gonna just they're not going to be happy. And that's that is truly the big like the biggest thing I've learned this sport is I I can't take social media. Like, I can't because it would it would like you said, I it would bother me so bad, man. I I still don't like sometimes I don't handle it. Well, and you want to you want to bite back. Really really quick, right. And I have got myself in trouble with that. But it's like, I think for the most part personally like I have come so far like just from how I started into the sport is like that's the biggest thing is like don't worry. Like, if you're editors are happy happy with you. That's fine. You focus on growing thick skin. Because social media is always going to be there. Lady gaga. I had a funny quote earlier this year on Jimmy Kimmel saints social media's like the toilet of the internet. And she's right. But yeah, tire pointing that the most important people to me are the executives at FOX that they are happy with what I'm doing. And also like you said the people in the sport the competitors. The crew chiefs the teams are happy with me because those are the ones that matter for my job, the viewers, of course matter, but they're negative. Opinions. Don't the negative ones. Don't like again like you just said foot like as long as my editors are happy. And I'm informing the readers of what I think that they need to know and the people in the garage, and I have to deal with like the drivers as long as I'm not pissing them off and the PR people. That's a big one. Happy. That right. And then I can't get caught up in like, the one person who says I'm an idiot on social media for sure you can't. And then I have no idea what I'm talking about. Yeah. That's just drive. You crazy, honestly. And I definitely learned that over you. You know, this is my eighth year. Take awhile. Yes. I and I still don't handle it. Well, but it's taken a while for sure. And again, it's just like I look at you or Jamie or whoever it is on. I mean, probably even Jeff Gordon like people were on TV. I can't imagine they probably have it so much worse. It's interesting. You know, it has its moments of challenges just like any of our jobs. You know, they're all different. I think just because your face is out there. It's makes it an easier target perhaps because you are the person that they're seeing. But it is an important job. You know, you're one of the people who's chosen to bring these headlines into someone's home every night on the TV or whatever it is. So it's it's a job that I feel you know, I take responsibility in that. And people aren't always going to be happy with what you have to say. I think the analyst price struggle with that mortgage. So much of what they do is opinion based where mine isn't really that way. Do you know what I'm saying? It's for me when I'm reporting what happened at the track, or here's what just broke on the car. You can't really argue with that. She'd get mad at that. But sometimes the analyst probably have it pretty hard because they have to give their opinions. I, hey, you know, I think this competitor should really be winning by now. And he's not in his days are numbered or whatever it is. They're the ones that get to do that not me. So I'm going to change topics here in a second. But it's funny. You say that because it's like you can't get mad, but just delivering the facts, but I feel like in so in my I guess from my side of things I could tweet that Kyle Busch says babies are beautiful in the sky is blue, and my timeline will still be filled with people who will tell me how much he sucks, and he's a horrible. He would be. Okay. We'll funny mention that because okay, you're triggering my memory here now because I did recently tweet when he won the expanding racist past weekend. I tweeted like a funny meme like number swirling around someone's said trying to figure out his stats since the year begins. They've been unbelievable frigging incredible. And so I I don't know if it's any secret that I am a a. Seattle word this. I like Cowboys. I like him a lot. I think he is an incredible talent. I love that he is genuine and authentic, and again, he is true himself, and he doesn't give a shit if you like him or not that is really endearing to me. We need more people like that love it. And you know, what bothers me the whole point is to win races. That's the whole point. So why are people mad at someone who goes out and wins races? Unless I'm sorry. Isn't that why they race to win? I love this conversation because I feel like it just validates what I said two weeks ago at the tweet up. I was I wasn't arguing with the family. We're having a very we we were we were having wonderful passionate about racing. And I love that. I I that's why I love going to more and more of these sweet ups because I love just talking racing. And they were talking to me about what he's like. I don't like how Bush he's like, I respect him. He's like, I just I don't like him. And I said, okay. I was like I got a bear had a break this down for you. Yup. Yep. Do you want the guy like Kyle Busch who's gonna go and tell you exactly how he feels and why he is pissed off. And why that race was a damn joke or whatever it was do you want that guy who is going to give you the personality that we all say, we want sport. Yes. Or this was my example at the time or do you want Eric Merola who sat in the media center Saturday morning at martinsville? And was asked if he was in the same position Joey Logano was a year ago in the fall race at martinsville. What he make the same move on Martin trucks junior and Eric Morales said, well, you know, in the it's hard to say in the moment, you know, you just have to wait to see how it plays out. And I don't know do you want that guy who's going to give you a politically correct in my opinion, bullshit answer. Or are you going to listen to Kyle Busch? Who says yeah, I'm gonna go on record. I have to wreck to win a race. I want to go into championship. Like, you can't tell me you won't personality in the sport. And the. Bash? The guy who has has. The entire sport with his soul personality because a nobody else has any. Well, that is obviously a great point. And seriously. He that's why I really respect him as a competitor. Because he's one of those guys who is not satisfied unless he is winning. When he is second. Like, I think I'd rather go interview a serial killer. Then have to go interview Kyle when he was just like it. Truthfully. I never heard that. My other thing about Kyle. And you know, this is kind of the narrative I've tried to push with some of the fans because my whole point with this was when I posted that tweet about his stats being incredible people jumped all over me like I can't even. Right. You can't get the facts like night literally could say that Kyle Busch said the sky is blue and my time line be like it's going to be right. I I have never seen such reaction to of tweeting about one sole individual that. I get on my time line every tweet like I could just tweet the Kyle Busch qualified fifth and people are going to talk about what a frigging baby he is. And I'm like, I didn't even tell you. He said anything I just started during it now. But what I really want to to say a lot of times. And I said this a little bit last year. I was pretty vocal about it. Kyle has done so many great things for other families through his work with the bundle of joy fund, both him and Samantha, and it's it's truly remarkable. And I got to have a front row seat to it. Because I did all the interviews with the families for their like end of the year video that they showed at their gala that they hold every season. And when I interviewed these families, and I saw what they had been through. And what the impact that the bushes have made on them being able to have children. It's I mean it tugs at your. Heart. I left there. And I cried on my way home to my house because I was like, I obviously I had a very different experience having children. So I never went through what these people ought to go through. But the bushes have truly dedicated a great part of their life to that because of their own experiences. I really admire that about him. And I also really admire and this brings like full circle to what we were talking about before what he's on the truck series. Kyle Busch motor sports. I mean, some of the best competitors have come through those doors. It's so hard as a fan, and I get it. But but like, you it's like you have to stress this point because I understand fans are not going to think this way. But it does like you have to stress the fact that if Kyle Busch does not run five truck races a year. He doesn't have the same amount of sponsorship razor, we're going to those partners aren't wants to see him race. They right. And they are not going to turn around and be like, okay. If you won five races. I will turn around and sponsor Harrison Burton for or whatever it may be exactly. And they don't understand that business. They don't get that. It's like, unfortunately, you can't just think of it as oh he's trying to pad his stats. It's more than that. You have too much bigger picture. Right. And there's a business side of this. And if he doesn't run those races he doesn't get to run harrisonburg. And here's the thing doesn't get to run. Todd GIO Linh. Fulltime I talked to the competitors. All the time from being an I grocery years their love when he's in the race. You know, why? Because they if they beat him. They know they will have beat one of the best ways of media apparently are just making that up because there's are fans were like, no I need. He is the devil. You know, what's funny? I was thinking this. And I sorta got we're going to change the subject here in just a second. What's funny on this topic about Kyle Busch and talking about social media? And when I feel like I feel like Jennifer ir is almost in the same boat. Jennifer, I could probably tweet that the sky is blue and people are going to ripper shreds like I feel so bad for her time line. I could say the most innocent things, and I bring it on because as we sit here recording. She her latest column is on Darrell Waltrip, and that's her sought, and we all get paid to have opinions, and I got ripped for mine last week about moving the championship from homestead to Phoenix. But we all have opinions, and we get paid for our opinions, and I feel bad for John because I feel like she's another one on Twitter that I could say Jennifer IRA Kyle Busch gonna fill my time line. Yeah. I have noticed that for and I do I do feel for and she is trying to do her job. We're all just trying to do our jobs to the best of our abilities. Unfortunately, though, the profession we have all chosen requires us. Go here from the fans in here from the viewers and ninety percent of the time. I feel like we have great fans, we have dedicated loyal super passionate fans. I want to switch the topic here is because I am sure this we're not we're not dissing fans. But but talking about social media negative outweighs the positive I want to switch to the positive. I'm sure being in the position that you're in you, probably get asked a lot about your background and how you got into this. I'm sure you get asked all the time for advice and things of that nature. What are some of maybe like, the most repeated questions that you get asked about about either your job, or or how to do this a lot of people a lot of young people will be like, so you know, what would you say is advice for me trying to get into journalism? And I always tell him kind of the same sort of things for me. It's starting college. You know, a piece of paper with a degree is not going to do much for you anymore. You need to do internships did experience real world experience. I did three internships while I was in college that were involved with either racing or TV then right out of school while I was still in school. I wrote a column and ask our column for a school paper just to get experience. Then when I got out of school. I got hired. Langley speedway. It's the local level to do, you know a show there. And then I filmed reports out of the spare room in my house like a creep. But you know, I don't care what we need to do. You do what you gotta do. And honestly, I wrote some terrible stuff that I'm hoping they'll find on the internet. What does that saying though is always was on the internet? Yes. We've all done we've had to do. But in two thousand ten that digital space was really kind of coming into its own and YouTube is a platform I could tap into to share work with people that would not have really existed, maybe ten years prior. You know, so you kinda use the resources that are available to you at that time. And with young people always say start local go to your local racetracks, if they need a stadium reporter, see if they needed person on the big screen. You know, there's tons of opportunities and a lot of times you can create your own if you're smart about it. And that's you know, that's what I always try to tell them that just getting your degree and things like that. It's in two you gotta be fearless to do this. You got to be willing to fail. You have to be willing to put yourself out there. And it is scary at first I always feel like a hypocrite. Because along those same lines of everything you just said, I think the biggest point for me is what I tell people is like you said go. Oh, see if you can do this or this or this. I always tell people don't box yourself in by being. So stubborn of thinking, you know, what you wanna do? I feel like a hypocrite. Because that's what I did. And granted it's worked out for me. But but that is my advice. Other people is is do not be so tunnel vision on this is what you wanna do. Right. If you can go get experienced trying. During her things you need to go do it. And the other thing too is don't be in such a hurry. My God every millennials technically, we're millennials which is annoying. But a lot of them just didn't happen. And it's been two months. Like a good life as soon as I thought as soon as I graduated college. And I was gonna get snapped up right by someplace, right? That's not how it happens. It's not. But in this today's society everything's on vacation, right? A work at what you wanna do you do over his? But it's really really not actually in this sport. You have to like crew chiefs will literally tell you. They started sweeping floors share. Yeah. Like you like it's the same in the media side of things you have to start somewhere you do. And I mean like I said this is my eighth year with FOX on. Now. I'm hosting a show. You know, I'm getting that opportunity took eight years, you know, people just don't understand that you got to put it in your work. You gotta pay your dues. You gotta prove that. You can do a good job. Honestly once you get the job. That's almost like now, the hard part, really begets. You gotta keep it. Yeah. You've made it. But now. Stay there. Yeah. I tell myself that every day, and I don't think I've made it at all I feel like I've kind of made beliefs. Dialing. I have kept you far too long. Let's end with this question. Your career is not going to be over anytime soon. I don't feel like, but is there one thing that you want to do in your career before it is over is there. One bucket list item our goal or or something you have your I set on that you want to put on your resume before your career is over. I mean, I'm sure at some point I would love to host pre-race for like the Cup side of things at some point. You know, I feel like I still have a long ways to go before that could ever happen. But I think your goals and things kind of change in of all of as you continue to go through this. And that might be something. I would have my sights set on. But one thing I am working on in my career near the very first person that I will share this with publicly, and I'm so glad ways here where the person that I'm sharing this with in just in a broader scope, I'm writing a fiction book. And I know you love reading Caitlyn and I feel like. Been wanting to tell you this because I know how much you enjoy reading like me, my reaction is. Because again, I already hate you for how you look, and I hate you for the following that you have now you are going to beat me to something else. That's on my bucket list. Which is writing a book, we are are. None. Officially I now, I really do hate you for real. Thanks for having me on. No, go ahead. Tell you all about your your book that you're gonna write that I'm gonna end up reading, and I'm gonna be bad about it. Just a hoop kinda like it because I feel you'd be a hard critic because you read so much right now, it's going to end up having anything is I'm going to read this, and I'm gonna wanna hate it. And then I'm gonna be like, no. Good. That's what's going have to give it five stars on the good reads up because it might suck. It could be a colossal failure. I don't know. It's just I've been working on since August. And it's written from the perspective of a woman who works in television news broadcaster, which obviously I have experienced working in TV, but she's based in the Charlotte area. And there's this series of missing women that keep occurring throughout the city that they believed to be the work of a serial killer. And she's kind of the reporter. That's been engrossed story. I so frigging. Hey, John was my second reference to serial killer on racing. I don't know how that happened. Noble separate podcasts killers. We should. I'm sure that we watch and totally. But yes, so start another podcast the reading nerds podcasts or something should do. It'll just be Halonen Kelly you Cyril. Yes. We'll just we'll have to start our own podcast. It'll be all about books and serial killer. What are you reading right now? I'm curious uh uh. You have Stephen King novel. Oh nice. The green mile. Oh, yeah. I think it was a movie too was great movie. Don't watch movies. I read I mean, he's a brilliant writer. So I'm sure I read. Even people. It's amazing. How many movies are books originally when you really start paying attention. They are I just finished one that I'll I posted around Instagram. I don't know if you saw its called daisy Jones in the six, and it is about nineteen seventies rock band rise and fall of the band, but it's written as like the whole thing is like an interview. So you have each character how they're kind of like response, and you'd think it would be confusing because you're jumping back from so many different viewpoints is really the way. She did it funny because I was like we are not gonna talk about books on this podcast because we're going to be serious, and I'm gonna talk to her about racing stuff. And I saw that we still ended up talking about books because that makes something because we both read a lot. And I do I see all of the stuff that you post on Instagram, and I'm like poison I'm jealous. And then I hate you because you would posted the other day about new read so much. Now, you have people sending you both. And I'm like I need to figure that out where who do I need the contact here. If you go to some of the publishing houses pages, you can kind of send them something that says you wanna. Be a person that they send copies to see. You know, this you can do it. This whole podcast has now been fifty seven minutes in this podcast has now been a success. Just. I don't really hate you Kaitlyn. I hoping that I was being. Sorry sarcastic. Good. Good. Well, I think it's funny though, we did end up talking about books I do too. But I am not happy that you're writing one before me because that is a bucket list that is going to be like, I said, it could be a huge failure. I'm going home right now. And I'm just gonna start writing a book about something. And I'm going to. Game. That's fine. That's my seriously. This has been fantastic. We could keep going. But I have kept you far too long. Like, I said, we're we're fifty minutes. Fifty eight minutes in I'm gonna let you go. Thank you so much though. And he wanted to do it. I appreciate it. And I don't seriously hate you. I really don't. Oh, good. Okay. I'm glad we clear the air. Thank you so much for having me. I really admire you admire your work. You're one of the few women like pounding the pavement every single weekend. I really respect that. So thank you for having me.

NASCAR Twitter FOX firehouse subs Charlotte Instagram NASCAR Jeff Gordon Amanda Ellis Jamie Little Christopher Newport university analyst FOX Caitlyn Vinci Todd Bodine producer Hilton Head island Texas Kelly Crandall
Randall Munroe on Hard Ways to Do Simple Things

Kickass News

45:21 min | 1 year ago

Randall Munroe on Hard Ways to Do Simple Things

"This is kick ASS news. I'm Ben Mathis Hi. I'm I'm Ben Mathis. Welcome to kick ASS news. I don't know who I said there's more than one way to skin a cat or for that matter why anyone would want to skin a cat but but it could have easily been my guest today cartoonist and scientists Randall Munroe the number one bestselling author and creator of the Web Comic X. K. C. D. He is used to his fans asking him questions that usually begin with what if or how can I and he responded with outlandish but thoroughly researched and scientifically Gli sound answers for how to accomplish just about anything now he's taking it to the next level with a book that finds complex solutions to everyday tasks wchs it's called how to absurd scientific advice for common real world problems and today Randall joins me on the show to explain how to use elaborate scientific scientific theories to do everything from sending a package to moving a house he discusses how he went from being a NASA physicist to a cartoonist on the web and he says there are actually a surprising number of physicists turn cartoonists in fact there are a surprising number of physicists turned cartoonist who share his birthday Randall reveals the biggest hurdle building molten lava moat around your home how to throw a coin or just about anything across the river and how Serena Williams takes down a drone plus fishing with electricity why scientists still haven't figured out how ice works and why the US military wants nuked a bunch of beer cans coming up with Randall Munroe in just a moment uh-huh and you find the actual study on this before I can cite it because I remember reading about it. A long time ago. there was military steady of soldiers in desert conditions and they want it and they were saying that they are constantly having trouble supplying enough water and so they wanted to try they. They found that if they took if they they cut water rations in half all the soldiers got dehydrated but so then they did you know that's the problem but if they did another study they they tried over the same period just slowly tapering the water rations to the same level of giving them like a week at every reduced level by the end end of it. The soldiers still got exactly as dehydrated because you can't learn to not need water. Yeah like you need a certain amount of water and there's no like trick you you know well. If you do this you can get by with your water. Science your way out of that one well. Let's tell the folks who you are that at this is Randall Munroe. He is a former NASA robot assist who left the agency in two thousand six to draw comics on the Internet full-time is the author of the Number One New York Times bestseller what if and thing explainer and the creator of the science question and answer blog what if and the popular Web Comic X. K. C. D. now he's written a new book described as the world's most entertaining and useless self help guide. It's titled how to Absurd Scientific Advice for common. I'm in real world problems Randall Munroe welcome to the podcast hi. Thanks so much for having me well. I really enjoyed the book and I'm also a fan of your website x. k. c. CD thank you where you post I. I'm trying to think how to describe them. They're they're usually scientifically inspired cartoons in I think just to give people a sample of your humor humor. Here's a cartoon that I found on the site today. It's called Fukuo Pendulum. I don't know if you remember that one. Admittedly podcast is an auditory medium is not the Best S. two platform for a cartoon but the first panel I presumably takes place a science museum and you have one of those co pendulums which people probably know so as the pendulum that knocks down the little pigs and there's a I guess a museum dosen or something is taking a tour group through and says this Food Co.. Pendulum demonstrates demonstrates Earth's rotation it stays in a fixed plane where the earth rotates under it then one of the visitors thinks to himself really so that means and then he runs in and grabs the pendulum stops it we then cut to the last panel of a newscaster says the Earth rotation was briefly halted today until geophysicist. Your physicist wrestled the intruder to the ground so that's the kind of stuff that we're dealing with here now you. You actually do have a background in science right. You started out as a physicist. Yeah I did a degree in physics at a Christopher Newport University in Virginia and undergraduate degree and then and then from there I started working on robots the nearby NASA Langley Research Center wow that's pretty cool. Was that a fun job. Oh Yeah for sure. It was really fun. I I started out with a summer internship which I think I found a flyer for it and you know I wasn't always the greatest student so I was like this is probably not qualified for and I think it turned out literally really no one else from my college applied so you know you never I guess my life tip. You never know stuff yeah yeah. I didn't think NASA still used flyers years for recruiting yeah. No it was interesting up in the the engineering and Physics Department funny now what led you to quit that and go into cartoons well. It was sort of an accident uh and it was also you know NASA kind of helped me a little bit. I don't know if I was working on a contract basis and I'd like convince them to give me a new contract every ninety days they would be reading my contract for the project. I was working okay and so then when the when the funding for that project you know they're like we're gonNA. We're GONNA WE'RE GONNA stop doing this contract. We can find you if you want and right around that time I've been drawing comics online and people had started wanting to buy t shirts it's and and the and like at first I just shipped a few t shirts and then suddenly there were a whole lot of orders and so I was spending a lot my time when I wasn't working at the lab just like buying in folding and organizing t shirts and handling papal orders and and then I realize is like wow I'm actually I ha- I might I might be making more money if I stay home at this point also yeah it was it was really license. You're cartoons. That's right. I mean you don't syndicate. No no the news will so I grew up reading things Calvin and Hobbes and the far side those were big influences on me but I knew about like the the fights that they would have with the syndicates and how like Bill Watterson famously the author of Kevin Hobbs had long fights with a syndicates over licensing and merchandising thing and he had very strong principles about you know and and and you know I feel like people in commerce really admired him for you know standing up and having that fight but also like the fact that he had to have that fight made newspaper cartooning sound like you know like he shopped around for five years before he found someone who would put them in newspapers so but the Internet you can just put stuff there to stop you so it seemed way easier yeah I mean that's still how it works in most cases and that's how cartoonist make money you you. You said you did this because you thought it was a good business decision to put it out there for free explain though yeah yeah well you know I feel like now nowadays. That's an easier sell for people people the idea that the best marketing is sort of word of mouth mom that you can't answer now. People put put a lot of effort into making things that are going to go viral and I think when I started heard of doing this at about you know in two thousand five and two thousand six and people are asking like wait. Why are all these people you know reading your website i? I don't think I had a term for for that. Yeah I don't term going viral vented the turnout no but because I remember trying to explain it it's like yeah I know I didn't ads anywhere but like if someone likes something they send it to someone else and then everyone sort of does that it can grow really fast so instead of having Golic shopping around for five years I went from like posting comics online to you like doing comics full time under under a year and whistles before social media really on and that kind of thing the emailing I mean yeah no I mean there. There were all kinds of places people hung out online forums there of AOL instant message that but it was a lot of it it was just being in the right place at the time you know like it. I was just really lucky. I was doing comics about stuff that people were looking for comics about right then you know and and so like I don't know people are like what should I do. you know if I want to be successful at. Doing you know web any kind of web publishing thing. I'm like man I don't know I I just feel like I got. I got so fortunate in where I was what I was doing when I was doing it and like such a big part of it yeah apparently apparently you now have your own Wiki for X. K. C. D. where there's a whole fan culture of people trying to explain your cartoons and in some cases even trying to speculate about their your Creator favourite fan theories about yourself now i. I actually try to steer clear of that because I don't know I think it's I I think it's really easy to kind of get hooked into responding to things and then it might be like I want to correct this particular person but like there are too many people people on the Internet to do that early on I did a comic about making fun of the the urge to stay up late at night enoug- go to bed because someone's is wrong on the Internet and you have to prove them and partly did this comic to kind of like remind myself like sometimes you should just leave the Internet alone. Let it do its thing and the nice thing about doing that. was that comic. I was sort of setting a trap for myself because if I started to get mad at something online and like argue with someone and then someone else can be like hey you know there's this great comic about how how dumb it is to do that. Have you seen this. It's called XY and like nothing takes window to your sales like having someone quote your own comic to. You may prove that you're wrong yeah. It's interesting because we're living in this time where science is just getting so politicized so confrontational and in some instances maybe rightly so because we are facing some serious problems that we have to tackle and some people just WanNa bury their heads in the sand but you generally avoid avoid being too preachy about science getting into those arguments instead usually opt to let your work speak for itself. It makes me think of the the cartoon that you did the Wonderful Info photographic about the history of global warming Do you think that's a better way for science to win over hearts and minds or mostly minds. We're going for minds but well I mean. I don't know if there's a great climate. Scientists Catherine heyhoe talks about how really the way to reach. Someone's mind is I was to convince you know to reach the heart and then that opens them up to you. there's a lincoln quote about that too I think I think I don't know I I. I don't know the right way to do all the stuff but one thing that I think is really pretty true and sometimes hard to follow. Is that like it's never it's never good to be to to get to kind of preachy at people because no-one no-one likes being condescended ascended to church and people can really tell when you're doing that even if you're trying to mask it and so what I what I try to do is instead of like yelling at people or or telling them like you're doing. This and that's you know wrong and if you think it's a good idea you're a bad person to remember and instead like try to talk about like here are the things that I find exciting and surprising an interesting and try to share those with people in a way that will help them feel the same way yeah. Is there something about the way of physicist assist views the world that lends itself to the kind of humor in your cartoons kind of wry almost Gary Larson esque humor. I don't know maybe I it does seem like maybe this is just because I know I notice it but it does seem like they're sort of a weirdly large number of people with physics degrees who then go on on into cartooning career true yeah I mean there's a there's another web comic Guy who does a lot of a lot of similar molar stuff. He's a he's a great guy. We're friends Zach Weiner Smith he does Saturday morning breakfast cereal bill amend the author of Foxtrot who which I grew up reading he's a great guy extre- and in fact my one of my favorite pieces of trivia is that of all of the cartoonists who started off with a physics degree before we're going into a cartoons and and and who who had a lot of readers who were like engineers mm or technical people but also like young people of all of those cartoonists of the ones who are born on October seventeenth I think I'm the second most successful because the because Mike Judge who did Beavis head and also also office space yeah. He's got a physics degree. Oh my God I don't know so maybe I think that's hilarious yeah. I feel like I really like I get along with people who you did physics for the most part. I think there is a kind of mindset of you. GotTa be like a little bit too like head in the clouds allowed to be a good engineer almost like you got to you. I was like okay well. What if we make the situation more general than idealized and try to find a an overall theory that explains it all even if it's not like useful for this specific thing but then like if you go too far in that direction you go into like pure mathematics and you start doing algebraic geometry or something which has but nothing to do with anything? I'm not insult any ALGEBRAIC geometry but like so it's people who like wobble back and forth between the theoretical so maybe there's something to yeah now. I imagine that you would probably be the first to admit that you're no Michaelangelo. Your cartoons are famously simplistic. I mean they're basically stick figures. Oh Yeah someone someone asked asked me a just yesterday about so. How did you develop your stick figure drawing style and I was like it's not so much that I developed that I never developed anything else? I started off doing stick figures I wonder do you think that works in your favor because now yeah I guess the art is less distracting from the idea behind the comic. I mean that's that's one of the cool things about comics is that they let you kind of simplify and and cut out the stuff. That's not you know not as relevant and I mean there's this Scott McLeod quote about how when you look at a photo or a realistic drawing you see of face you see someone else but if you look at like an icon economy face you see yourself you put yourself in their shots and yeah and I think I think that's simplicity can can can really be a good thing but it's also like I sure hope it. It can be a good thing because that's that's what I've learned to draw but like in the comics I grew up reading you know I I draw these symbol stick figures but like and so it's like oh it's just a few lines but then like I look at like peanuts. The charts and the number of lines in those Oh strips is like not not that it's like so few of them. He just knew exactly where to put them and that's really yeah yeah. who were the cartoons that you grew up admiring? I mean you mentioned Calvin even Hob yeah well. I feel like that's the big one that was. I was just at the right age it was that was the first comic I ever read. I remember pulling the book off a shelf ruin being like Oh. What's this flipping it up and trying to understand the panels finals you know me too? I think it was one of the first of that and far side. I think our peanuts cartoon Farside screen and I read you know but I just read everything in the library under the Commerce section you know I've never read any of the like marvel in DC comics I never and and the Japanese comics a lot of cartoonist friends grew up reading those is but for me it was mostly a must read newspaper comics before we get to the book I have to ask what is Casey is an inside joke or something now I noticed not noticed early on with the Internet that you you have to pick user names and I started out using AOL in nineteen ninety-three three when my family I had to pick a name and so I was like picking names based on whatever I was interested in at the time so for a while I would use the username Skywalker for and then I got really into the end route three other people who I mean that's amazing that you were number four. Oh Yeah Yeah I mean there are people who got all kinds I was then anamour seven and I did a few other but like every time I got into a new book series or a new like thing that I was excited about I would pick a new name but then I realized that's starting to get confusing because you've got to make names on a couple of different places yeah and I would try to pick a name that sounded cool but then a few years later something sounds cool. An eleven year old does not sound cool to a sixteen year world you know and then it continues like this so I was frustrated your friends well exactly that's the thing that's my name because they all know how to reach me that way and I so I realized when I was a teenager. I was like wait. If we got to pick names for things I might be stuck with this for a really long time. I want something. That doesn't have any meaning that I'm going to get tired of and that's really short because I'm going to be typing on a bunch of places and it'll be it'll be cool to have like a short username. 'cause you know everyone they run out really quick jeff and so and I decided I wanted something that like it would just be a string of letters and it wouldn't look like it was trying to say it wasn't a word. It wasn't an acronym acronym. It wasn't something you're supposed to pronounce and then I wanted to make sure not to include any letters that will be ambiguous if you wrote them like lower case so like no is because they look like like alkaline okay yeah. That's a good idea how does Martin Zeros but then of the remaining letter is just like try to find a combination that I could take his mind and that would be like my spot in the space ace of all strings of text and in addition to x. k. c. d. you also have this fun blog called what if where you answer questions such as how how long would it take to slide down a fireman's pole from the moon to the earth is that kind of where you got some of the ideas for your new book how to Yeah I was really surprised when I started doing in comics that people would write in with their questions for me to answer like science questions but they always sort of said like me and my friend having argument about this but it seemed like too ridiculous ridiculous to bother a real scientist about so we figured we'd right to you instead and and I would have so much answering them because when someone asks a question like that and like if I think I know way to get to the answer for me it's like getting a song stuck in your head like Uhlich. Stop whatever I'm doing and then just like work on that for like end up like six hours of reading rabbit hole yeah and and I have so much fun with that that I started saying hey if I'm GonNa if I'm going to do research that is all like posted somewhere for someone to read and if people like it and then and then founded that people people had a lot of questions that I had so much fun answering them that I found that it was a really good way to explain cool science ideas by taking some simple sounding practical problem or question and then trying to work through it and that's what I did with what if and that's also related to sort of another direction with how to yeah how to is sort one of the opposite of your last book which was thing explainer in which you I think took the thousand most common words in the English language and used them to explain incredibly complex likes concepts and how to on the other hand kind of flips that on its head and you take generally simple tasks like taking a selfie sending a message and that that kind of thing and you find more and more absurd in elaborate ways to accomplish these things it's sort of a Rube Goldberg type thing yeah. I'm always good at coming up with ideas for solving some problem that I'm convinced we'll lake in the long run. This'll save time once we get it working even though it seems complicated now and it always always ends up taking more time than the original the normal way would would but yeah I I with this. I tried to think okay. I'm going to take these simple tasks and try to think outside the box think of like like the weird ways. You might try to do it and then figure out whether they're really a bad idea or not. They're almost always bad ideas but it's it's it. Sometimes it surprises you or sometimes you find that something you thought was a bad idea. A has has actually been tried or might actually work. We're we're GONNA take a quick break and then I'll be back with more with Randall Munroe. When we come back in just a minute imagine yourself with the doctoral degree at the top of your field teaching researching or making a bigger impact in your community? A doctorate is a huge step forward to achieving your goals so what's stopping you. A doctoral degree may seem out of reach because of the investment involved to be at a time investment or financial one but you could earn your degree from Capella University through their flexible program with online classes and a dedicated community community of faculty and students just like you if you're worried about the cost of your degree Capellas there to help to eligible new students enrolling in select Dr L. Programs may qualify for five thousand or ten thousand dollars scholarship in addition to scholarships Capella has a team of financial aid counselors in Roman counselors and career counselors to help you make your goals a reality because you are an investment. That's worth it learn more about the support and resources sources you'll have from beginning to end you can also start by exploring CAPELLAS programs and scholarship opportunities at Capella Dot. Edu Slash kick kick and now back to the show a lot of these ideas sound ridiculous but sometimes I guess she really never know till you try. I mean a lot of scientific discoveries and inventions probably sounded ludicrous at the time until someone actually thought a little deeper on the problem and Yeah L. Just decided not to accept that something was inherently impossible yeah or just tried something ridiculous. I mean like antibiotics like revolutionize. Lucien is medicine but like if you told I'm going to take this mold and then I'm gonNA smear it on this cut that I got you know like that. That definitely sounds like a bad idea and the at the same time there's lots of stuff you could smear on your on cuts. Most of it won't be on about it because it's not like every it's not like every every bad idea is actually go but that's what I like about sciences that lets you kind of figure out which ideas are good and bad sometimes before you've had to try them through calculation theory and research. Can you give us some kind of an example of a task that could be done pretty easily by the simplest most immediate way but could also be done with these super over the top complex solutions of course with the aid of science and perhaps an unlimited budget. I guess yeah I was thinking about how frustrating it is to move to pack stuff into boxes and it's like everyone like there's sort of a standard way to move where you get a some kind of a moving vehicle. Give cardboard boxes. You put the stuff in the cardboard boxes. Carry them out and takes up taking it always ends up taking ten times longer than you expect and it's so exhausting thing in derails your whole life. It's really I'm not. I'm not a fan of moving but I was thinking. Is there a way to avoid some of these steps like packing so like I have take all this stuff out of my house but then put it into boxes but it's sort of already in a box in this house shape box and like true what if instead of like getting a new house in selling the old house you just pick up the house and move it and like that's not totally out of the question because you know and people do move houses you see them sometimes on flatbed trucks usually I think they do take the stuff out of the house before they do that but I was thinking you just lift up the house with everything inside move it to the new place place and then put it down and so I go I started researching like how do you lift house and I learned that you can't just like you know put a like hooks under the edges and lift up because the house is like a mattress. If you lift like one corner of it just that corner will come up. Oh Yeah Yeah so see you've got to put like girders underneath the the house to support it but then you and you've got to detach it from the foundation but you really can then lifted and put on a truck but then as I'm researching this and I was talking to some friends one of my friends choose to work at the a permit a permanent office for why the where they gave up the wide load permits for those trucks that you see on the highway okay. DMV Ear who who knows what she said was that people what people didn't realize in particular jurisdiction was that you know in her state. You had to get a permit for every jurisdiction. You're going to pass through severally didn't even think about it and she said that people people who came into office never knew that and they would always get like it would become a huge headache because they're like Oh. I didn't didn't realize you're GONNA have to do this. It's too late now. I've got a and so I I was thinking you've got that problem and then you also got bridges over the Road Oh yeah and I was thinking about that. Jurisdiction jurisdiction question of like you're going to pass through all these different towns and then I realized above all the towns is are the different classes of airspace airplanes ends don't to get permits to pass through town through they're all under the jurisdiction of the FAA so it got me thinking could skip that whole permit process by lifting the house up into the air flying it sideways and then coming back down and so it's like so obviously that's not a good way of move I I was like I know that well. You can't do that with an ordinary helicopter because that's what I was thinking. Though I was like okay that's not a good way to move but if you wanted to could you and that I could I couldn't rest until I knew the answer and so I found out about these looked like heavy lift helicopters to see if they could they could lift a house and like they they couldn't lift the house I grew up and it was too heavy and so but then I'm thinking well you know it's it's not that much heavier than their capacity. So if you've got two or three or four helicopters they could all lift at pulling together okay but then I was thinking well okay. You got a whole bunch of helicopters attached to cables pulling on your house like it's like a handful of balloons on strings. You gotTA keep drawn and quarter yeah bill you have to keep the from colliding with each other. They all have to kind of go upward and then I thought okay well what if you attach them all together into one giant helicopter with with like rigid things so that there are apart they don't collide and then they could live together and then and then I started feeling like okay this is this has gotten too impractical a I've gone too far down this rabbit hole and then I discovered not because I was thinking it still probably would work together but just as I was going to like okay. I'm going to go on that threat. I think that's that's too ridiculous. I found that there was a government project in the nineteen seventies called like the multi helicopter heavy lift system that was like exactly what I described. They were like this take helicopters chop the tale of one of them in bolt them together and get that to lift something and this project is one hundred and fifty page report on it over all all the details ended up that one ended up not getting funded although I just learned and so I I read about this and I said this may sound like a ridiculous idea but the the US government has actually studied this there was a study commissioned from this helicopter company to build one of these so maybe maybe this idea isn't is ridiculous thought on the other hand it never got funded so it was there's very few absurd things in a book like this that haven't at one point been thought of by the US military yeah the the Cold War was a weird time time and there was a whole new series of nuclear tests where they they bought a package soda and beer from like a local convenience store and then put it out a test site and set off nuclear weapons over just to see if it would survive and be drinkable afterwards wow and that's that's it it was a wild time. Yeah I feel like if you get deep enough into any field you start to find weird stuff like that like the way that fish fisheries researchers they'll they have thing called electro fishing where they stick a some electrodes in the water and just like jolt the water with electricity it stuns the fish and they float to the surface and then they can count on them unlike that's actually how how they do it. It's a useful tool for fisheries surveying stuff but it just kill the fish. No I mean if they turn the dial up too far yeah okay Oh okay I'm up and gets collector efficient but it and like it is useful. I never I've read a bunch of people fisheries trees researchers who talk about you know the pros and cons of it and how it works and you know what kinds of fish you need what current for but it it really see if someone described that to you and you didn't know it was the real thing. It sounds like an idea that was come up with a little kid who doesn't understand electricity like I'm GonNa take this toaster and drop it in the water and that'll zap all the fish and then I can save time with the fishing Rod God. No that's not how that works but turns out it is how it works. I love that kind of thing yes and some of these are just straight up. Bond Villain type stuff because there's one chapter apt to here on how to build a lava mode around your house. What's the biggest hurdle there is it I would? I initially assumed that it would be how do you keep the love of molten because it's constantly cooling ruling isn't it when it's exposed to the air yeah cooling the house. I mean yeah yeah I mean I mean the lava lava puts out a lot of heat and so I actually had a friend who had ants chance coming into his house and he was really frustrated by Caserta. You're rid of them and then he he lived out in the woods and he was like I can't I can't you know they're they're. They're always coming in from the you you know all around but I can how would it cost too much if I just wanted to put a moat of molten lava my house and and so I started trying to calculate the cost for him and and yeah the the big the big problem is heat loss of the lava so you've got to supply enough heat to keep it molten. It's not just getting the lava there. It's like it's GonNa cool really quickly. A you know a red hot stove you turn off the stove stopped eating red hot pretty fast and so so soon the lava recall down he'll just have kind of a weird lumpy sidewalk and so you've got to keep supplying heat through some kind of heating mechanisms so if you if you figure out the the heat it's like their papers is on surveying lava flow. Isn't it says how much flows off per square you know square meter square foot square whatever of lava and you can take that and and you know you gotta supply that much cheat from the bottom to keep it balanced the conservation thing and so you just look up the price of the price of gas heat the price of electricity and and do some simple division vision and so I like. He texted me about this so I texted him back. Okay I found a paper on this looks like for you the House you're talking about. That's going to be about twenty five thousand dollars a day. Okay I mean certain tech tycoons who could actually yeah it was definitely outside. My friends price range but but it's also I was surprised how low that was. You know I was thinking it was going to be a lot more but it's like there. There are a lot of people who who could afford that and some of them do seem like the lava types I think Elon Musk would totally go for a love him. Yeah what what honestly the hurdle that I. I was Kinda curious about I didn't I didn't ever get a straight answer because this is also varies from jurisdiction to jurisdiction but if I go out and try ability moten my around my house like definitely a bunch of a authorities are going to be unhappy about that like no question at the very least whoever comes to read the meter. It's GonNa be like a little frustrated fed ex people trying to deliver packages but but who would like actually tell you had to stop I like or or like like who has jurisdiction is it. Is it the fire department like they may be but like do they actually you. No is it against the fire code you know who is it against the is it the zoning board or would it just be like the mayor would just show up and be like come on you might be able to get away with that. You just say look. Show me where it's not. There's no there's no. There's nothing that says the dog can't play basketball exactly yeah. I'm a I'm a big fan of Airbud theories of of of of law speaking of that. There's a chapter in here on how to stop a drone using sports equipment meant apparently a lot of govern agencies still haven't really figured out the best way to cadrone with if it has explosives attached you got a little bit of help from of all people's Serena Williams. How'd you get her detest that out and how did he do well as usual I started with? I was going going down a research rabbit hole because I was looking at you know there are all these different ways to no catch drones that people have tried some of them are better than others but I started thinking about like if you got one of those wedding photography drones floating over Your Yard and and you don't have a fancy anti-drunk piece of equipment and you just Kinda like throw stuff at it like what's the best thing to throw and I started comparing all these different pieces of sports equipment to see how accurate they'd be and there are a lot of studies in sports medicine and sports physiology about about the accuracy of pro players in different sports and so I got to compare like is baseball better than a basketball and I could do that by like looking at free throw percentages and basketball and the range to the basket verses like the spread of a pitcher in baseball because they've got all the strike measurement stuff and then in some other sports they don't have as many as many as much data from the play but there are studies. They'll have pro players just like kick a soccer ball all at target on the wall and measure like the the the distribution have where it has a lot of the data all this data and so I was plugging into this model and and I at the same time but I couldn't find good data on tennis players and like might be out there but I couldn't find a I was like in the middle of searching for a paper on tennis players hitting balls at targets that were up on the wall. There was one on hitting the target on the ground a couple of others but I wanted to do something that would be good for the model for shooting at a drone and and and and I had texted way way back like ten years ago with Serena Williams husband because he helped with when I published my first comic collection Nokia Yeah Yep AB Alexis and then and then I I I'm in touch once in a while and he texted me about something and I said you know it's funny. The funniest Texas I'm in the middle of like reading a bunch of papers on tennis player accuracy for this book. I'm working on and he takes the Beckel well. Oh Hey if there's any way we can help out. Let me know send us a message so I was like well you don't you don't turn down an opportunity like that. You know so I was like so I asked if if she would be willing to like I knew she's super busy so I didn't want to like impose and it was just happy that they were going to contribute some data so I asked if she could fuelling when she's going down to practice or something to just stick something to a wall like target pizza masking tape whatever and then and stands some distance away and serve a bunch of tennis balls at it trying to hit as close as she could and if they can just even if they videotaped the balls hitting the wall in some way where you can see on the video how far away it was. Maybe take a photo with a ruler up there I would I would do all the work of like figuring out what the accuracy do you know figuring out modeling all that stuff and I could use that to plug it into my model and figure out how hard it would be for her to hit different drone models and so I sent out of it but I was trying to make it as simple as possible as little little out of the way a little extra work for them as possible and and but it turned out she was like do you want me to just hit a drone when I was I was grocer yeah and so they had a drone that had a broken camera that they've been playing with you know that was her husband's old drone that that he had gotten and so she so they so and it was already damaged but it was it was a fancy drone you the and the head of fly up over the court and and then she stood down by by the baseline and served at it to try to knock it out of the Air I'd come up with a preliminary model a model of like oh I looked at other players that hit things with and a few tennis studies read tried to apply them to drones and suggested that a pro player show champion player should take my guess was like maybe five to seven serves to hit that model at that distance and she missed the first two just missed and the third one nailed it knocked out of the air so she actually took it out yeah. Oh absolutely yeah it it it. She clipped one of the fore wing. You know propeller things disintegrate the propeller just kind of disintegrated audible but what is her and I don't know so she did better than my model suggested but that could just be a statistical outlier but I sort of think it's a Serena Williams higher now did did you attempt any of these experiments yourself not really i. I sort of feel like there's all the stuff that is easy to test in real life and I stay away from that stuff mostly because like mythbusters does that really well you know funding and there's a lot of youtube videos of people try and so I like to think about the stuff that's maybe harder or less practical the test like attaching helicopters together. Although it turns out several other people have done that too which I'm delighted related by but yeah I did. There was one case when I tried to come up with a model for how throwing works I wanted to do how far you can throw stuff. yeah it was is based off of some legend about George Washington. There's there's a story that he threw a coin over some river and it's like with a lot of these stories by George Washington. People just seem to really like telling stories about him so it's not clear like where it most of these started circulating after he had died and people are like oh well you know I heard he did this so like sometimes the rivers the rapahannock ax sometimes it's the Potomac which you definitely couldn't throw something over you know but but whatever it was everyone agreed. He was big strong guy who like throwing stuff so oh he yeah and so I was I was trying to think like how can you calculate how far you can throw something. I was thinking about the different sports equipment and different projectiles and I realized realized and this is the physics thing where you come with simple model because it's it might not be as precise but it's still really cool that you can get answers. I just said okay. I don't know what someone does when they throw some sports thing happens you know something athletic happens but I know that they are going to be applying force over over a certain distance to this ball to get it going from not moving to moving however fastest when they release it and so I looked at like the metabolic power that people are capable capable of putting out and then assume like they're pretty good at focussing that power on the ball somehow when they throw you know people and and people seem you they always say throughout with your whole body. You know you've gotta follow through you got to so it's like okay. What if you just plug in here's how much metabolic power people can output when they're doing a heart athletic lettuce activity like rowing or something because they got on or cycling and it's about like for an athlete is a superb athlete? It's twenty watts per kilogram body weight for more. We're like okay N- normal in shape amateur be more like ten and then if you just assume that power is applied over the distance. They're like the length of their body pitcher. Your arm spans about the same as your height so it's like five feet six feet. You know you're going to apply that that much power and you're going to play it over that distance. You can work out. Here's how fast the ball could be going end based on how much always and how much you know your size and when I plug that in I plugged in that the wait of baseball pitcher and a baseball and said you know about ninety miles an hour and that's really and I was like Whoa that's actually pretty close. That's like that's Major League Baseball and then I put in a football player and the weight of a football which is heavier and he said like sixty five miles an hour and that was actually that was a it was a little high. I think the fastest football passes or more like sixty but but it was still kind of like that's about right you know and so I started plugging it and I was like wait a minute this the nice thing about having a really yeah yeah so. I think it was like okay. Let's put in the weight of a blender and see how far football player through that so then I was so powerful Oh here's how far you know. Barack Obama could throw a javelin. Here's how far got Carly Rae jepsen could throw a microwave twelve feet and this was so much fun but then I was like I want to see if there's models right before I like. It's it's sort of just a fun simple model but I'm gonNA. I'M GONNA go check it so me and my friend got a bunch of random objects and we went out to a field and marked off distances and we tried to see how far the two of US could throw the objects to see an and like the equation held up pretty well okay so I have included that in my book and then put a calculator online at a website dot com slash throw where you can plug in your height and weight well before we go sort of along the sports line. You have this chapter on how to ski that I found very interesting staying and this one in many cases where I learned a little something in this book. you say that scientists still don't actually know how the surface of ice or Snow Oh get slippery so that we can ski or skate. Yes that shocked me. I mean I don't WanNa try it out. The old we can put a man on a moon saw but you know we we can build L. nuclear missiles. We can make a particle accelerator in the world. We not know how ice works by now. Maybe putting a man on the moon involves skiing you. I know we we've made some headway on the ice slipperiness there. There've been a couple of papers recently that really nailed it down but there was this idea that like the blade of a skate gate lowers the melting point of ice by it's like you know a few degrees and then because it lowers the melting point by a few degrees it drops below the temperature of the era of the state of the ice and then and then it melts in a thin layer melts and then that's what you're surfing on is that layer of water the and and this is great. This is the theory that came up in the eighteen hundreds and it's weird because that kind of persisted as the dominant explanation for like you know one hundred years except that theory says that it'll melt because you lower the melting point by a couple of degrees and then that's then it's low enough that the ice will be will melt but you can skate when it's more than a couple of degrees below freezing it still bill works yeah and the theory. That's like clearly proof that this theory is flat wrong you know me and like no one really noticed for a long time. Yeah I mean I'm pretty sure that that's the theory that I was taught in high school. They finally sorted out sort of which is that like when you got a crystal of ice. Most of the water molecules are locked into this grid like You you know and it's like a woven I think it's sort of like a woven rug where the threads in the middle of really hard to move because they're like locked in firmly but the ones on the edge are kind of frayed and they're not being held in as easily so they're like flutter around a little bit and they're more like free moving water molecules so like ice will naturally form on the edge of its crystals a layer of liquid Lakewood or semi liquid water and that's the slippery part. That's what you slip on interesting well. This was such a fun randall enjoyed it again. The book is called how to absurd scientific advice for common real world problems and I also wanted to tell people to check out your terrific cartoons at X. K. C. D. dot com Randall Munroe. Thanks for talking well. Thank you so much fun. Thanks again to Randall Munroe for coming on the podcast order his new book how to absurd scientific advice for common real world problems on Amazon audible or wherever for books are sold in view some of his wonderful cartoons at X. K. C. D. dot com. If you enjoyed today's podcast be sure to subscribe Abdul on Apple podcasts and rate and review us while you're there five star ratings detailed reviews or one of the best ways for new listeners to discover the show you can also so follow us on facebook or on twitter at at kick ASS news pod in recommend us to your friends on your social media for more fun stuff visit kick ASS News Dot Com and I

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Bernie Sanders Dominates in the Muslim Vote 2020-03-10

The Takeaway

35:17 min | 1 year ago

Bernie Sanders Dominates in the Muslim Vote 2020-03-10

"The it's the takeaway from March tenth and Duarte Giraldo. Today on the show Muslim American voters have their sane. The presidential primary. This is a position that quite frankly Muslims and Arab Americans are simply not used to plus in Mexico a day without women Hashtag. Dnc Mohandas brings attention to gender based violence in the country. The streets I walked around it and must commercial where nearly empty I think it underscored how much of the city's operated and occupied by women and finally would single use plastic bags mean for the environment and for you made me want do carry more usable bag. That'd be a little more conscious of comedy. Plastic bag they do use. We start with big Tuesday. Let's get to Mississippi Preserve CODA. I watch the state you will be heard. I think the American people in this incredibly complicated and difficult moment in our history are entitled through thoughtful answers to the crises we face. Today is the second big multi-state contest of the Democratic primary and there's a lot at stake people in six states vote today Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are the two front runners remaining now for Senator Sanders. This is a chance to show that. He's still competitive in this primary. He's hoping some Michigan momentum might give him the type of upset he in two thousand sixteen when he beat Hillary Clinton in that state despite lagging the polls by double digits before had the Muslim vote is key in Michigan. Sanders has so far been dominating on Super Tuesday almost sixty percent of the Muslim vote. That's more than double the support. Muslim voters showed. Joe Biden an Arabic uncle. You say I'm also when I say I'm will you say Bernie I say happy? Be Used Bernie. Now they're only about one to two hundred thousand Muslim voters in Michigan. But if this turns out to be a close contest Muslim voters could be the deciding factor but is it enough to help Bernie Sanders pull off an upset Michigan and change the course of this race and why are Muslim Americans supporting Bernie Sanders in such large numbers joining us to discuss this Aisha. Khan she's reporter at the religious news service and Yussef Shahad is also here. He's a political science professor at Christopher Newport University. Thank you both for being here. Thanks for having me good to be with Ya. I show why have Muslim voters been supporting Bernie Sanders in such large numbers compared to other candidates in this race the issue is? There's a desire. For Structural Change Biden has kind of presented himself and marketed himself. As the candidate who will provide consistency? A return to normalcy is his phrase. There's no desire for normalcy to go back to that era for Muslim Americans. There is a desire for Just to turn the political system upside down and build from the snow from the start in a way that Senator Sanders has really promised turning the political system upside-down Yousef. That's how I show portrays in Dearborn. Michigan is home to the largest Muslim population. The United States. How do you think that will factor into the primary well L. Muslims as a percentage of the American population Are a fairly small proportion. So they're never going to be a a so-called swing vote on a national scale But when you you know narrow the scope geographically and particularly when you think about state level of races and primaries within states will then they actually have a chance at that point to effectively? Moved the needle now last time around and Twenty Sixteen Primary Michigan The Arab American and Muslim American boat was credited in part worth giving a cat at sanders at that time His surprise win Now the polls this time around seem equally if not perhaps a bit more Challenging for for Bernie Sanders. So we'll have to see how it goes but certainly the turnout. Among Muslim and Arab Americans will be decisively for Bernie Sanders. You mentioned. They may not be a deciding. Vote on the national level but so much of politics is local and right now we live in an era where CDs and towns really redefining. What America is when you look at Dearborn Michigan? You say that Muslim Americans could be a swing. Vote in that area that becomes especially significant. Yussef this is a position that quite frankly a Muslims and Arab Americans are simply not use to bolt in the sense of just Being considered a voting constituency that needs to be acknowledged and quartered and being considered as a constituency worthy of reaching out to a and not simply a community that gets you know talked about when one certain negative headlines of reach the Broader media. I show you heard US talk about Muslim. Americans being a constituency that some politicians have to look at as being worthy of reaching out to how is Bernie. Sanders supported the Muslim community. When to be frank it wasn't always politically advantageous to do so right so when Barack Obama was campaigning there was a famous incident where to job wearing a Muslim women appeared Behind him at a rally and Some of his staff removed them. That's kind of been the traditional way of looking at Muslims. You know you don't WanNa be too closely aligned with them Especially somebody like Obama. Who already had these kinds of rumors swirling about him but you don't see that with Senator Sanders which has really been an incredible experience for a lot of Muslim Americans. For example you see Linda Sarsour. Who since two thousand sixteen has been his campaign? Surrogate you know. She's caught a lot of heat for a lot of her statements on Palestine and You know her involvement in the women's March and other things but you never seen Bernie tried to pull her out or try to hide his association with her. His campaign manager is the first Muslim to be the head of a a major campaign in the US Which really is is a big Stunning Change for Muslim Americans to see that kind of consideration use of how in your view is Senator Sanders campaign. Different from say president. Barack Obama's when it comes to the Muslim vote meow as I should mention you know though. Is that incident in Detroit. And and many of your listeners may not really Recall it However within the American Muslim community This was shared widely now to President Obama's credit. They apologized as it was the act of volunteers and and the campaign went an rectified. That afterwards but it does speak to this. You know Symbolic and oftentimes actual distance between the Obama Administration and an American Muslims. And you know another case in point is president. Obama didn't visit an American mosque until very late in his second term in office will Baydoun law professor and Detroit native noted the other day that Bernie Sanders visited Somewhere in the vicinity of of A. Perhaps you know half a dozen mosques when He went to You know talk to Muslims during the Michigan Primary in twenty sixteen and that's the case. Then he visited Morelos just in that one stint in Michigan than both President Obama and President. Bush DID DURING THEIR ENTIRE TERMS IN OFFICE. So that is really say like eating. Bernie Sanders really putting his money. Where his mouth is? He's not simply talking to talk. I mean he really is trying to not just simply reach out to Mo- some voters but You know genuinely Comes up cost Muslim. Voters that he actually cares About their wellbeing. If you're just joining us we're talking about the impact of the Muslim vote. So you know. There's this narrative that is always seems to be on auto play in the USA of Jews verses Muslims and it on repeat given that Narrative Aisha. How does Muslim support for Senator Sanders? Who is Jewish challenge that I think this is something that A lot of folks you know even within my newsroom have been surprised by this fervor that Muslim American voters have four Bernie Sanders that. Oh you know. Isn't he Jewish or isn't he atheist or whatever you know he is. He is Jewish wire muslim-american supporting him but Muslim Americans themselves. Not at all surprised. By that idea it's you know there's a long history of Jewish Muslim solidarity in America and actually it's it's Senator Sanders. Who IS JEWISH AMERICAN? Who has the most progressive vision for the Palestine? Israel conflict and that doesn't go far enough for most Muslim American voters that I talk to the wish that he would go further but they recognize that he has a history with his family. was deeply affected by the Holocaust and that resonates with them. That you know he he comes from background. That really understands the toll and that really resonates with American Muslims Yousef. What are some of the other issues that Muslim communities in particular a prioritizing and how does that line up with sanders platform you know his economic policies Certainly health care but also You know tuition. And and and and just a his more. Broader Economic Justice plan appeals to a large segment of the Muslim population who are not really experiencing the American dream as it were A somewhere in the vicinity of one third of a Muslim households are at or below the federal poverty level and so the the Economic realignment that that President that a sanders administration would put forward. is very appealing Both to these Lower income households within the Muslim community. But also for those in the Muslim community that value Social Justice more. Broadly I should i. It's a sensitive topic but the issue of surveillance in Muslim American communities in the USA Can Be Touchy. How was the shadow of that issue affecting voters during this primary? I think The bus prominent place that you saw it was definitely the reaction to Mayor Bloomberg candidacy. He immediately apologized upon announcing his candidacy. For Stop and Frisk. Because there's so much pressure was put on him but he didn't apologize for The warrantless surveillance of a Newark New Jersey area Muslims Just across the board restaurants mosques. You know student associations at universities And he didn't apologize for that. Any actually continued defending it during his campaign Now that he's out of the race I think it obviously it's coming down to Biden's record as part of the The Obama Administration versus that of what Sanders is promising. Under the Obama Administration. The countering violent extremism of federal program was kind of enacted implemented nationally. Which must sensibly partnered with grassroots Muslim community leader and tried to guide young Muslims away from the path of radicalization. But in fact that really kind of Created a lot of friction between the White House and law enforcement as well as Muslims and Muslims. Kind of saw themselves. As you know why. Are we being the sole focus of this Countering violent extremism policy as opposed to you know white nationalists and other sorts of domestic extremism and senator is has really talked about moving away from that model and instead focusing on white nationalism as the biggest threat within the US in terms of extremism is Yukon reporter at Religious News Service Yousef Sha who is a political science professor at Christopher Newport University. Thank you both for joining us. Thank you for having us. Thanks for having me. Women Girls Mothers Daughters and sisters. They are being murdered in Mexico at an astounding rate the people who study this call it gender based violence it's also known as femicide and last year more than one thousand women were killed in. Mexico. That's nearly ten women or girls. Every day. Mexican women are fighting back taking to the streets demanding the world recognize the threats that they live under and after a string of killings in the past few months. Some so gruesome involving torture and mutilation Mexico is seeing some of the biggest protests in recent history. Tens of thousands of women and their supporters marched this Sunday on International Women's Day and on Monday women took part in a national strike called a without us. Many women stayed home. Refuse TO WORK TO DEMONSTRATE THE POWER. Women actually hold the country meet. Andalusian Knowles sold off. She's a freelance journalist. Mexico High End Lucia. Hi We know. There's a femicide crisis in Mexico. How long has been unfolding? Fm crates actually has been unfolding over the past thirty years. It first became known to the world. In which is a border city on the US Mexico border in northern Mexico? And it's a city where many women migrated from all across Mexico to work in factories and Mike Ladas and then at some point their bodies started showing up in the desert there and these cases were not investigated the government often said or the police would say that Oh they just went off with her boyfriend and the family kept insisting that their daughters did not just go away that someone had either them or kill them and then finally they were able to pressure the government to investigate but that was only because they also took to international courts and it was a case called cottonfields case because there were some women who are found in a cotton field it was an international human rights case in which I think it was two thousand ten. They dictated that the Mexican government was responsible for the murder of these women because they did not properly investigated and also the conditions just the security in general and the Mexican government was supposed to take a series of measures to change the situation but today ten years later not only do women keeping killed in Ciudad quotas but now ten women are being killed every single day all across Mexico so we know that there are some women who were killed and their deaths are not marked as femicides. Is there a specific definition? That would mark a particular murder of femicide as opposed to just homicide. Yes femicide which is a term that was created by the feminists Marcella. Saturday is a term that describes a hate crime against a woman when a woman is being murdered for being a woman and it was incorporated into the Penal Code in Mexico in two thousand twelve. But it actually depends on the state so it's not the same in every state but generally it is considered femicide if the woman is killed by someone who she had a relationship with either an intimate relationship or familiar relationship or the woman's body was left in a public place which is very very common in Mexico or is before. The woman was a murder that she was kidnapped or disappeared for some time and then also if there is sexual violence involved or if there were incidents of violence before she was murdered so it depends a on every state but that more or less are the reasons in which a femicide is defined as femicide. And it's important to note that they're often cases femicide where the government does not properly investigate and says it's a suicide. There's a case of Medina Wayne. Who was murdered by her husband strangled and the government said it was a suicide. Her mother often. It's mothers who become the investigators and the forensic experts in these cases to find justice for their daughters. She said that she knew that her daughter did not commit suicide. And she actually brought the case all the way up to the Mexican Supreme Court where they then dictated that both they had reopened the case where her husband was eventually prosecuted. But what this meant is that they said that every single violent death of a woman in Mexico must be investigated as a femicide. They can then that it wasn't femicide but from the get-go they must be investigated by femicides. Unfortunately that's still does not happen but on the books that is what legally should happen when a woman meets a violent death Mexican president under this Manure Lopez over ran on progressive campaign and has been in office since December two thousand eighteen. How has his administration reacted to the crisis of femicide? He has definitely come very short of responding sure. This crisis and he has is responding to the crisis. It's because civil. Society is responding to the crisis and that women are taking to the streets in mass to protest administration. I was just a few days ago in Mitchell. Connie morale which is a very conservative city. Where there's hardly ever any protests and more than three thousand women took to the streets in protest. That was just in one city that happened in cities all over the country. He did say yesterday. He had some morning press conference every day where he said. Oh I do support the right to protest but he also said I do think though there are many conservative elements that are being disguised behind the Feminist Movement. And he has said many things like this over the past month where he thinks that it's people that are trying to attack his government and his government which is called the fourth transformation of Mexico that they are trying to shut this transformation down disguised by these women's movements and he really has not neither joan sympathy for the victims. We've had a series of really serious public cases of women being murdered over the past few months including the murder of a seven-year-old girl who was kidnapped outside of school and found dead naked in a bag a week later and he has not shown any kind of empathy or sympathy with the families. He has not put forward as strategy for security. The one thing that has happened in this I would not take him from him is that there is a new investigative fiscal in the government that will investigate them aside and it is actually someone who is fit to do this or any missile you era and she is a lawyer who has specialized in femicides and actually worked on a very well known case which is a lesbian Rivera. Burning who was found dead on the unum campus with a telephone cord is the largest university in the country. She was found with the telephone cord around her neck and the government said it was suicide and thanks to Hillary and her lawyer team in the family. They were able to prove that she was murdered by her boyfriend. Who now is in prison for femicide? So hopefully this new investigative a team of the government and with the society as these guys will be looking further into the side crisis onto loosening. Those sloth is a freelance journalist based in Mexico. Leo Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you so much for having me on. You could follow me at end the Lutron. I'm always they're writing about and publishing about gender violence in Mexico. We just heard how women in Mexico are taking to the streets to protest gender-based violence in the country. Some people say the way local Mexican newspapers cover violence sometimes makes the situation worse some Nice Shem is a freelance reporter base in Mexico. She recently wrote an article for Aljazeera about femicide and Mexican media. So mom thank you so much for joining US direct. How're you now Soman? You recently wrote a piece for Al Jazeera where you talk about the media. And how their display of some of the images of journey? Base violence is offensive to a lot of people Can you describe that more detail? So the story I wrote was on the note that Oh her red sheets these graphic crime tabloids that feature uncensored footages of the dead often with lewd headlines. Not Unlike something you might see in the New York Post Daily Mail if they covered this kind of thing and ran it on their front page and the photos are usually next to other photos of sports stars in nude models and last month to Mexico City Federal. How papers came under fire when they're printed leaked photo of the twenty five year old femicide victim angered ESCA MIA when they published leaked photos of her corpse on their front pages was a brutal image and one paper ran the full image under the headline. It was cupid's fault an allusion to a crime of passion that happened near Valentine's Day. So the publication of this photo you know definitely touched a nerve and there were. Many women felt that they exploited the bodies of women and in a protest. Not long after the delivery truck of one of these papers was torched. The slogans like the press is complicit. Were sprayed around the city in in the downtown area. Where one of these papers has their offices. And so that was kind of the controversy there and A few days after they ran that photo one of the paper's left Prensa had around separate cover reiterating their commitment to telling ugly stories and as they always have but also recognize that it needs to dialogue with society and that they heard the protesters please. They heard societies please. It's so difficult to be frank for me to look at these images because their traumatic and the fact that the headline based on what you're telling me read it was cupid's fault where they showed The dead mutilated body of a twenty five year. Old Woman and right next to that image was an image of a scantily clad living women also portraying sort of sexuality is to understand that right Yeah I mean. That's that's kind of What they sell and clearly. They're very popular. Though some people consider them to be these papers should be targeted. More for men. They're also much cheaper than prestige newspapers in Mexico. They cost around eight pesos. That Nathaniel High and more serious newspaper. That doesn't feature such images on on. Its covers more around twenty pesos and in Mexico City. The most famous cells in average of over two hundred eighty seven thousand physical copies a day in Mexico City so that obviously speaks to its popularity but there are also many who find these images jarring and distasteful. And you know I I think from conversations do their best to avoid looking at them while passing newsstands. And is there any? Did you speak to some of these newspapers? What are they saying? Their defense How do they justify this business? Model continuing to produce these papers that. Show such graphic images of violence against women. Right next to hyper sexualize images. Yeah so the the paper whose editor I spoke with Lupsha you know. He was saying that and the reporters as well that I spoke with of that same paper. Were saying that you know the public has a right to know what happens and that. Obviously there are a few things happening in terms of crime in in Mexico Mexico City right now and as far as the sexualizing women. Part you know. They said that they've actually come down in in the number of photos of scantily clad women they feature on their covers and it's not as often as it used to be in the past and I think they justify or defend their work because of an appetite for Gore that readers evidently have and you know the relationship with readers and this is ninety one year old paper. It's it's somewhat of an institution really thank you so much i Saddam as a freelance reporter based in Mexico. City thank you. What's up with our elections in twenty twenty. Why do some states caucus and others don't get to be a delegate and yes everyone goes crazy about Super Tuesday but what is it and why is it so important? I'm Amy Walter host of how to vote in America a new podcast from WNYC studios every episode. We'll tackle one element of this long and twisted election process to try to make sense of what it actually takes to vote in this country. Listen to how to vote in America. Wherever you get your podcasts you're listening to the takeaway towards Giraldo for most of your life when you bought groceries. You probably brought home. Carrots jeeze maybe potatoes but all of it in plastic bags. Those bags have a significant environmental impact and recently. New York became the latest State to institute a ban on single. Use Plastic bags now. There will be some exceptions to this but overall the aim is to cut down on the state's plastic consumption according to New York Department of Environmental Conservation New Yorkers had been using roughly twenty three billion plastic bags per year California and Oregon also have statewide. Plastic bag bans and cities across the country have implemented bands and taxes on the bags. And you've been talking to us about this guy used to live in Brooklyn but I'm up in amherst Massachusetts now at graduate school and there's plastic bag bans sector four years and it's great. I love it. I just always have bags in my car. Sometimes I get the paper bags at the grocery stores and it used a from my trash and recycling. Hopefully we'll get shipped. It's more ban entry well here in. Oregon. We've had single use. Plastic bag bans for quite a while. As a twenty estate ban went into effect so far. I think it's been going well It's the fact that it's five cents per bag doesn't seem to be a huge problem. It is a habit that we all have to build. Hopefully we'll see more at fangled on. I'd love to hear about other state. And their data. These plastic bag bans mean a lot for consumers and for the environment. Donna Hamanaka is an assistant professor economics and public policy at New York University. Thanks for being here Tatyana. Thanks for having me and Julius Don is the project director for the Institute on Climate Change and the environment at Ucla School of law. Good to have you with US Julia. Thanks so much for having me Julia in two thousand fourteen. The Earth Policy Institute which is an environmental nonprofit organization estimated that we use about one trillion plastic bags globally per year. What are the environmental impacts of producing these bags? And what tends to happen when we throw them out? Yeah so I mean. The environmental and human health impacts of plastic bags are several. Fold so you know. At this point. There are about seven hundred species that are affected by plastics including about eighty four percent of sea turtle species. And what can happen is that marine wildlife can mistake plastic bags for food and so they'll unjust them and then ultimately that leads to their deaths But plastic also breaks down in water and so- humans are now exposed to plastics and our water and our table salt in our seafood. These plastic particles have been found in most water systems in the United States and plastic also has climate change impacts so plastic as a petroleum product and studies are also showing that plastic releases greenhouse gases as a breakdown lantos while but plastic production is on the rise By some estimates greenhouse gas impacts of the petrochemical industry will increase by thirty percent by two thousand fifty and there are of course other environmental consequences plastic production like the emission of other chemicals into the air and water is part of the production process until the New York state is completely banning thinner plastic bags. But not the thicker ones or paper ones based on your research. How effective is this sort of ban so the city of Chicago Place? The band that was nearly identical to New York State's ban which against thin plastic bags will no longer be available in grocery stores but these policies leave other types of disposable bags on regulated store can offer paper bags or they could also offer thicker paper plastic bags for free which is what we saw many retailers do in Chicago leading to potentially an increase in the amount of plastic us. So you could look at a different part of the country Julia California band single use plastic bags in two thousand sixteen. How does that that Ben? Compared to New York's Sir so California's ban is a little bit different. And like Tatyana mentioned you know in New York. There is no mandatory fee component to other types of single use bags like thicker plastic bags or paper bags that are going to be used in stores. And so you know what we've seen in situations like that is that consumers will sometimes use. They'll just use that other option and that doesn't necessarily decrease environmental impact by contrast California's law applies mandatory fee to other types of single use bags and so cal. Recycle our state agency. That's responsible for waste. Management here shows that that setup has dramatically changed customer behavior so now in about eighty six percent of transactions customers will bring their own bags in California. So it's we know that some cities are opting for tax on plastic and paper bags instead of an outright ban and use spoken with consumers in Washington. Dc. After that plastic bag tax wanted to affect how effective are the taxes so the taxes like the ones in? Washington DC have been credibly effective at decreasing all disposable back years not just plastic bags largely because these are policies that regulate all types of disposable bags thick plastic and thin plastic plastic and paper and we saw a forty two percentage point decrease in the likelihood of using a disposable bag after that tax went into effect consumers that I spoke to say that this is a policy that they actually support that it's effective because it is sort of a pain they don't WanNa pay five cents but they also supported encourages them to remember to bring a reusable bag which is a behavior that they always mean to do. And just forget to do when we talk about behavior. So much of this involves consumer behavior Julia. Some people use those so-called single use plastic bags twice wants to bring home their groceries and that again to bag their trash. How much of a concern is that? Once you banned these types of single use plastic bags consumers are just going to be buying more products like plastic garbage bags Sur which are of course not banned under the band. But you know I think one thing to bear in mind is that These are things that really can only be used once or twice at best and we're really trying to shift consumer behavior away from using those types of products and some single use products like single use. Plastic bags are both unnecessary and particularly challenging to recycle. So plastic bags are a prime example. They come up. Waste Management Plant Works and they can't be fully recycled to their prime target band. One of the companies producing these instead of just the consumers so I think the important thing to bear in mind is that source. Control is important. Much of the conversation has been focused on recycling to date. But there's not as much tackling going on as you think. Only about ten percent of plastic waste is recycled and with countries that used to accept our plastic waste like China closing their doors. The US has left without adequate waste management infrastructure process. All of our plastic waste. So you know. We have to change consumer behavior as well as asking producers to take responsibility for the waste that they're generating as well until tuna very briefly attacks on these bags. Could they disproportionately impact low income communities so many of the policies do have an exception for customers who are shopping using snap supplmental nutrition assistance program or wick these are to a nutritional assistance programs used by low income households But what my research shows. Is that if you're a policymaker that is concerned about the financial burden on low income communities some of these very small taxes can still have a very large effect on consumer behavior so why not levy a very small tax instead of a larger one. And you still mike at those environmental benefits without creating financial burdens on low income shoppers. Tatyana Hamad off assistant professor of Economics and public policy at New York University and Julia. Stein is the project director for the Institute on Climate Change and the environment at Ucla School of law. Thank you both so much and can't for having and that's it for today you can follow me on twitter at Duarte Geraldino. Also if you missed anything listen again check out our podcast and of course call us about anything at eight seven seven eight my take or tweet us at takeaway. Thanks so much for listening. I'm Duarte Geraldino. This is the takeaway.

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Episode 11 - Rachel Bitecofer, Asst. Dir. of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University

Clusterf*cked

36:27 min | 1 year ago

Episode 11 - Rachel Bitecofer, Asst. Dir. of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University

"And this is cluster fucked. Here's your host host Roger King. Well it's cluster fuck time again. Welcome to another episode. I'm Roger King. My guest today is becoming a big part of the new wave of political data analysts who have gone mainstream who analyze the polls and with the numbers are telling us and then use that data to forecast election results. I guess nate silver's is probably the most famous of of these types From five thirty eight DOT COM. But I think our guest today is giving him a run for his money. She has gotten a lot of well. Deserved attention over the last year so because her midterm elections forecast in two thousand eighteen was bang on almost to the seat she predicted the Democratic Bluewave in which they flipped forty plus seats and she did so way ahead of any other analyst and now she's out with her twenty twenty overview which was published in the New York Times in which your conclusion is basically the Donald trump will likely lose his reelection bid. You may have seen her on. MSNBC recently where she was affectionately named America's second favourite. Rachel but because she's coming on this podcast and we haven't had Rachel Joel Matto. She's our favorite Rachel. She's assistant director for the Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. Rachel bitter coffer. It's a pleasure to welcome you. To Cluster fucked. Well well I gotta say that might be my favourite introduction ever of me so you're ready have won me over all right. It can only go down over mirror. PAT's so before we dive into your analysis of the two thousand twenty election in you know other things that you're seeing in the data and the research I just thought I wanted to just recap two thousand. Sixteen ecksteen is as painful as that might be for some Just have a little theory about. Why trump won? So I thought I'd throw it at you here and then get you to respond and probably Lee segue into some things you're finding about partisanship and all the rest. So so here goes I think most analysts would agree that trump won by a fluke. It was the perfect storm of events and much of which has been covered. You know quite quite frequently You know the Russian interference and FBI director. James Comey's letter announcing the Hillary Clinton was under investigation again ten days before the election which of course pushed a bunch of decided voters probably into trump's camp holding their noses and of course he had to third party candidates who were drawing some significant support in in key states and and all of that Came together and he managed to squeak out a victory Winning Michigan Pennsylvania in Wisconsin by a grand total of about eighty thousand votes If you add up all three of the of the margins But I think the simple explanation for what happened was was basically a bunch of liberal state home particularly in those three states I just mentioned and I think they stay home because there was no sign. That trump was going to win Michigan Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. The polls didn't show so I think he had a combination of maybe some lazy liberals who stayed on the couch and some who thought it was safe to vote third party. Maybe they didn't weren't that crazy about Clinton but they thought they didn't take it seriously. That trump is going to win. I I saw a quote from a woman One of Hillary Clinton's book signings. She said I'm sorry I didn't vote. I oh I didn't think you needed me. So that sums it up for me. Maybe you can tell me where I'm right where I'm wrong. And you're overview of what happened. I mean that's that's that's a pretty good It's a pretty good diagnostic. There you know if you had read my book on Two Thousand Sixteen election you'll find a lot of those elements appear in it I do you spend quite a bit of time talking about the defection. I mean it's not just a little bit of third party. Protest balloting defection. What we saw in Wisconsin Kansin Pennsylvania Michigan really all across the country were five to six times more protests balloting than we would normally see in a lot of that? The as you said was driven by a sense of you know this is in the bag I might as well go and vote my conscious or my heart. Because I don't really like this lady that you know I've been told my whole life sucks you know and then And then of course the the turnout. It's turnout differential that you know that Obama thing just didn't manifest and so that was a a massive factor. And you know when you look at the difference. Between Obama's victory victories in two thousand twelve and two thousand and eight and what happened to Hillary Clinton in two thousand sixteen. You're looking at those turnout. Differentials of those key democratic constituencies can. You can't argue that it's not Didn't have a devastating impact on her failure. Flip over those those state. So right and you look at Jill. Stein got fifty thousand votes votes. I think in both Wisconsin and Michigan or something like that and I have to believe that Well in Michigan for example. My home state the The margin trump won by was about ten thousand so I have to believe that if a percent of those fifty thousand actually thought Hillary could possibly lose. They might not have voted for Stein. But you know we'll never know I mean I actually we asked I asked some of the most strident Sanders supporters for my book about that. And of course it's not possible really to capture the emotions Sion's under estimate how estimated how much that might have impacted them even superficially a lot of them admitted. Yeah you know what of deadly impacted. How I you know my choice to go and vote for Jill Stein and of course when I wrote the book? This is prior to our Knowledge College of the targeted propaganda coming from the Russians towards black voters to get them to not show up to vote and towards these progressives to get them them to protest ballot so we only found out about that. You know after I wrote out wrote the book of course Now let me segue into two thousand eighteen for second you've been on the record lately as going a little bit against What I think is some of the conventional wisdom about what happened because you're hearing from a lot of pundits and some analysts is that Democrats ran these moderate candidates in some of these swing slash formerly Republican districts. The moderate candidates stayed away from talking about trump too much and they concentrated on healthcare. And maybe a couple of other sort of kitchen table issues. And that's why they won Your argument if I understand understand is actually that it was just all people repelled by trump essentially and Democrats could have done even better in the midterms if they had played more to the base and made it about trump. And that sort of thing do I have. Do they have else's right. I mean you do and I wanNA really stresa like. There's everybody's saying that first diagnosis. Which is the Old School Paradigm Paradigm and? Then there's not just saying it I mean number one. My entire forecast would not have functioned if I had not if that was not the case if it wasn't turn out. Surgeon declined turnout because that was what my forecasting model was based on. Was this idea that would be the the entrance of voters. You know riled up from trump. Even if they aren't likely to tell you I'm riled up by Charles. That's what was making turnout increased by nineteen eighteen points over a regular midterm So my motto would have failed spectacularly because the way that it was designed was built on a turnout surgeon decline hypothesis but number two. You know I've done post election autopsies on the voter files and I've expanded that since I became nerd famous because now I I have access to better more data and I only had two states California in Virginia to start at all of the districts that have analyzed thus far show you know right there on the voter file you you can literally see you know. It was the entrance of Democrats and different independence. Not the ones ahead and casting ballots for Republicans in the past cost that flipped these districts not moderate Republicans not even the same independence that had been voting before for Republican candidates. It's liberals got off the couch in other words. Yeah I mean it's a there has been for a long time. This demographics are destiny. You know the truth of the matter. Where is the those authors? Were wrong with the hypothesis. The problem is that that number one there are the factors that make people likely to vote the two things that are most important in that regard our family socialization. So did your parents vote and the second thing is education college education so college education can make up for that that family you know tradition and The Democratic Coalition being younger and more diverse Particularly Latino ended end of the coalition is. There's more Democrats but they are less likely to have those factors and so we've been seeing for a long time on untapped potential and Donald Trump. The election of that getting caught with your pants down. Miss of the twenty sixteen election has really changed changed. You know that and we're losing that play out in election after election nerd famous is that a is that an official phrase. I think so. I think I love it. You mentioned college educated voters which I wanted to touch on because that's one of the keys to your analysis You Know I. I've I said before I think on this podcast how I think a lot of liberals are surprised that at least you know in past years Republicans tended to win college education voters because we think of Harvard and Stanford and some of these places where liberals are not Harvard so much but you know what I mean but of course someone who goes to Jerry Falwell. The university is also a college educated voter but anyway the point being now we're seeing a shift towards the Democrats and that's key to your analysis correct. Can you take it gets through. What's happened with these college educated voters during the trump era? Yes and. I'm really glad that you're mentioning that as well here. We are sitting in two thousand nineteen after the two thousand eighteen election election and so everybody knows college educated voters or realigning to the Democratic Party. But you know after the twenty sixteen election the Reason reason why model was innovative was that I expected this massive shock to a a slow moving realignment. I WANNA be clear. It's not like I was the first person to ever or notice that there was a realigning Going on but White College educated voters had been voting for GOP candidates for a long time time and in two thousand sixteen. You Know White College Educated Women for the first time actually voted majority for Hillary Clinton. We don't forget that because people get angry and talk about white women how they broke for trump and they did but when you separate non college educated in White College Educated Women White College educated okay to women for the first time. Ever vote for voted for the Democrat. It was a very modest Majority but it was a majority and You know I would diane -ticipant it was okay. We've had this alignment and this is a product by the way of the Republican. Party's civil war. Where the Populist you're listening to this part of the party staged a revolution starting in two thousand nine twenty ten and you know basically pushed smart people who hey especially millennials because we're not talking about so many. We're not so much talking about college. Educated voters changing their party affiliation although there there are some of them and those voters are are moving largely from Republican to Independent. But we are talking about the second generation right so the millennial whole women. Their mothers are Republican. They are voting Democrat right so anyway I knew that it was going to be like kerosene on that realignment. And so in my predictive model. I predicted two. Things would batter the partisan composition of the district or the state As a measure measure or polarization and college education. How much college educated population is in there for this backlash of fact to trump? And you know now it's a staple that everybody's looking at understands is a predictive element for Democrats but it was never before a good vote indicator for Democrats. You're right well. and which is why when people are talking about which states are going to be competitive in two thousand twenty and we'll get to your overview analysis of twenty twenty in a second. But it's why I think your advice is to look at If you're looking at you know people talk so much of course of Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin which we've mentioned off the top Bob because trump squeaked out his victories in those states and so people are going well if the Democrats can flip those than they. They win the election. And you don't have to worry about anything else but I think what you're advising advising is to look at some other states where the college educated numbers are higher which happened to be some red states. If I'm not mistaken correct yeah I mean it's not exactly we know that the college education rates are higher but they're comparable and there's these giant of surge potential populations that have not been tapped into you so when we think about what Beta rock did down in Texas. It was innovative. It was definitely an untraditional approach about you know as I was unveiling this new New Paradigm of understanding elections and how to win them. In the polarized era I got very lucky because two candidates emerged you know that we're basically. They've running prototypes theory. One was running a pure version. And that was Stacey Abrams in Georgia and the other was running a hybrid. And you you know but but in in the case of Beta Aurora you know. They're still wasn't anywhere near the type of of monetary and infrastructure investment into surge. Latino turnout that you would need in Texas to make Texas Blue Texas. Has the demographics at needs today. In two thousand nineteen to flip over if there was like a basically like a nuclear bomb level investment for the DNC. In Latino turnout but right now the way that Democrats think about winning Texas right. They're going to nominate possibly most likely right now anyway MJ Hager. She didn't even flip the House district that she ran into ran in a pretty favorable cycle. Her she's going to run the North Carolina nine strategy which is to focus on independence. You're talking about the Senate race. We should clarify correct. Yeah well Yes for the Texas Senate race coming up right against John Cornyn. Yeah Yeah and if you want to win in Texas today than you were tomorrow than the path to victory is millennial Latinos who have to get not just a little improvement on. Turn out there you have to you have to really thank. You have to get massive improvement right and this. I guess this segues nicely into the big debate and democratic circles circles which is You know whether you go for the base and nominate someone who's GonNa fire people up. which is I think what your advocating versus trying to peel off some of those Dissatisfied trump voters or some of those moderates. And that kind of thing and that is the debate that that plays lays out Now are you. Are you suggesting that there really aren't that. Many crossover voters at this point because partisanship is like everyone is really a democratic. I've got a Republican and it's there isn't that kind of crossover that there used to be. Where because as you said in the midterms your research tells you that there weren't that many Republicans who crossed over and voted for Democrats? The people who already leaned Democrat but finally got up the couch. So are you saying there isn't much crossover potential. The way they're used to be. Yeah let me hit you with a few data bombs here and music or something but yeah and let me explain what I'm talking about. I mean number one when we're talking about the the two divergent urgent strategies like a Warren Versus Biden nomination. And my and my argument right it. I'm not saying you are. You're win the election by turning out base voting Democrats okay. I'm talking about turning out. People who will cast ballots for Democrats because keep in mind. We have an electorate generally participates at fifty five percent. Right you change that to sixty two percent. Democrats are going to win the White House. They're just bar none. There's no way. Republicans can win a high turnout election right. Essentially when people come out to vote. We Seen Democrats Win Obama's so when I when I talk talk about a lot of people like to say oh she's talking about turning out Bays Democratic voters no I'm talking about the Democratic Coalition which includes an NBA includes millennials includes Latinos includes progressives includes. You know all kinds of different people. And then there's this huge segment of independence. People who are not Democrats who will cast ballots for Democrats that are also mobilized so I was alluding to that voter file analysis us that I did when we look at a district here in Virginia. We had three district's flip over to Democrats all three were held by Republicans. Only one one was Clinton district I e Clinton carried it in the two thousand sixteen election. The other two were carried by trump. Okay okay the conventional wisdom is is that there was a segment of disaffected Republicans that joined with Democrats in two thousand eighteen to help. Elect these Democrats. Okay the data does not not tell us that story. The voter file data doesn't tell it the exit poll data doesn't tell it In the polarized era somewhere about ten percent of voters in exit polling data will say. I'm voting for the other party's candidate. There's very little deviation from those numbers we'll see higher numbers in West Virginia Virginia with Democrats or Republicans voting for a Democrat mansion reading. You'll see higher numbers in Pennsylvania or Massachusetts in Maryland with Democrats voting for Republicans right. That's exactly I was going to bring that up because of the governors in Massachusetts and Maryland our Republican and very popular. Yeah Yeah So. There's a couple of of exceptions but by and large the modal amount is about ten percent and it might go down from there very rarely go above ten percent. It's notable if it goes is up even two points above that someone eras cinema managed to get twelve percent. The Republican vote. She is the one and only person in the data you can find evidence. Evidence of additional Crossover Voting K. Then when we get down into the voter files to explain. How did these districts flip these forty How seeds and especially the twenty that are like surplus districts that I was talking about slipping where you know nate silver and Dave Wasserman and other analysts for you know not yet on their radar in July when I unveiled my forecast when we look at those districts this the way that they flipped? Is You know in two thousand fourteen in the midterms they were getting. You know maybe thirty percent turn out. In two thousand eighteen. The turn out was sixty percent and the composition. Shirow that turnout changed dramatically. It was more Democrat significantly more because it was more African American it was more Latino. It was younger. Were twenty Voters under thirty more voters. Twenty Four. Were winning right. Oh yeah so. Those people are different. People are not the same some people changing their mind. They're different people casting their ballots and some of them were Democrats. Some of them were independence. There's absolutely no evidence that there were significant. -nificant amounts of Republicans buyer's remorse and in fact. What the data does show is that Republicans were pretty damn happy with Donald Trump in two thousand eighteen because even without a stimulus even without being in the opposition party even without being you know having their sensibilities offended day after day by being out out of power like the Democrats were Republican? Turnout was really strong in two thousand eighteen and it could not have gone to the Democrats. The vote merge ines that these candidates candidates won by fifty four fifty three fifty two percent They see they won the off the search turn out of the independence and the Democrats but they could not have carried. These Republican votes still had those modest margins. Well that was the other thing. I should mention about You know your research on what you say consistently is that Because I think there are some in trump nation who tried to argue that Turnout wasn't that great in two thousand eighteen because trump wasn't on the ballot. But as as you just said actually no they turned out they did they did. I mean proportionately. What happened with democratic? Turnout was amazing. Right I mean but it was really shitty to begin with so it had a lot of room to improve it. Goes Up Theo. Three hundred percent or whatever right Proportionately the Republican turnout doesn't improve at rates of two to three hundred percent but it goes up. It went up over twenty four. It didn't go down and and and I'll tell you something else to add more evidence to this pile number one in every district so far that I've analyzed about halfway done now through all of the new data that I've been I've received Republicans out turnout proportionally for their percent of registered voters in every district. They out turn out Democrat that still okay in a wave year that should have been benefitted. Democrats Republicans still had higher turnout and in districts where Democrats ran trueblue dogs so you know had variation of Democrats running as Liberal Democrats as regular Democrats and then you had like a blue blue dog Democrats in those Blue Blue Dog Democrats. The Republican turnout was just as high as it was and all the other districts K.. So there was no benefit to being. Thanks so like unobtrusive and the Democratic turnout was about ten points lower. These are in districts that Democrats still ended up winning or for. Yeah they still. They still wanted you know if they did that. Say in two thousand twenty two under a Democratic president. They be in significant digging trouble right Gotcha. Because of course then we'd have the reverse effect happening where Republicans are out of power and they're all fired up like we saw in the midterms during well. Here's the thing. Republican turnout doesn't really vary. It's the Democratic turnout. That's it's actually like surging and decline. It's really surge and collapse. What's that's what's happening? That's basically the lead of our whole conversation is when Democrats show up. They win not wrong. And it's not just Democrats to Democrats and independents attendance. That cast their ballots for Democrats so both and let me. Maybe we should just do a quick Chatham independence because I think some people get that sort of confused the the nature of independence's and eat new. Tell me if I'm wrong. Anything I say. Of course but the nature of independent voters. Changing there are people who say where Republicans ends in there now. Embarrassed by trump. So when a pollster calls they declared themselves independent These things switch for example. And you hear a lot. Oh it's the key to winning. Elections is is winning independence. And you know Mitt. Romney won independence in two thousand twelve but he lost the election So give us a little thumbnail overview of of independence. And where they're right now. Yeah you're the first person actually other than myself that do that. Romney carried the vote of Independence But lost twenty twelve and the reason he did is because because of turnout back thesis right. So that's more evidence there that it's turned out right so but yes so independents. Yes I mean you know. The media talks about it like this giant group of independence and there are these you know rational reasonable people that aren't curse like the rest of America with partisanship and they're therefore they they. Are you know capable of rational. Thought but the truth is that most of of them are closet partisans. They say that are independent. Because it's more socially desirable to say that then to be aligned with one of these two. I mean ridiculously embarrassing parties and yes. The Republican Party is more ridiculously embarrassing in the modern era than the Democratic Party is a specially with trump at the helm and so we see more independence. Indi- are Lean Republican then Lean Democrat and that's not an accident product of the brand problem that the Republican Party has right now and when we we look at the behavior of those independents political science research has looked at. How do these guys behave in their vote? Choice and their issue preferences. They are pretty much closet partisans. I mean there's a little bit of more moderation. They're not a hundred percent Is Not one hundred percent correlation. But they do. Do you. Tend to vote Republican if they're lean our and tend to vote Democratic Orlean D.. And so when we siphon out those guys we're talking about is really somewhere between ten and fifteen in percent of the electorate who are what we call or I call pure and attendance and these guys are pure independence not because they some of them are like my mother in law who is You know truly an independent. And she is well read and she researches everything and you know but she's not typical typical at all. Most of these guys are they're independent purely because they truly don't have strong emotions about politics. They aren't particularly interested in politics. So their turnout. In off off year elections or off year elections are lower. They aren't passionate about issues Some of them are there because of appreciation for nuance the I like to say. I'm a nuanced independent. But most of them are independent independent for lack of interest lack of knowledge right. And a good pollster. Of course. We'll tease out. What you said earlier about you know leaning do you lean Republican leaned Democrat? And that's when you see that really only comes down to that ten or fifteen percent. I would like to just shamelessly plugged to. We did a national survey at the Watson Center last spring saying that's online on our website. We've such great data. There that people should go check out along with my forecast Stuff but it's called the Watson Center National Survey you are L.. It's yeah they'll just have to google it. Just go up Wassen Center and you'll find the website but the national survey there is It has a breakdown. Take down of what we're just talking about how number one the ideological distribution of both parties and also this Ideas of independence leaners ears and all that they can literally see what we're talking about right and I just say I sort of Latham and you know some of these facebook groups with a bunch of other liberals and there will be a bunch of people. Lynn there who claim that they're independent and I always challenge them really the you ever vote Republican come on your liberal group but they love to just have this you know vision of themselves of of of just weighing each candidate equally and I'm not partisan but Let's finish up with two thousand twenty. You you quite famously It'd be part of your nerd famous. you you you Had An op Ed published in The New York Times. I think at the beginning of the year of not mistaken January where you basically said Ah Unless there's something unforeseen trump's gonNA lose. Can you explain the thesis behind that. I know we've touched on a lot of things here. But just as an overview some yeah so that you know that was as an invited op ED coming out of the success in my twenty eighteen forecast previewing the model that I would put out for twenty twenty just to be clearer so I had not yet done the Motte or release the twenty twenty model though that is out now and it's also on the website but it was just talking about you know this. This was this new theory of of electoral behavior. That I am I'm alone shopping out there Out of the analyst. And you know you know this is what I I. This is what I'm saying it's going to it's going to what's going to matter for for twenty twenty and But Yeah I mean the theory is is the same factors that drove the mid term in the midterm. Turn Out Nineteen points up over twenty two thousand fourteen and people forget like what Stacey Abrams did in in Georgia I mean by far the best run campaign of the cycle and and you might say well wait a minute. Didn't she lose. Yes she did still the very best run campaign of the cycle because in that race in a midterm election then she outvote got more votes than the previous year's cycles Democratic presidential nominee did in that state. I mean that's it just truly remarkable and I'm always kind of a gas when one of the National analysts say. We'll say slow. You Know Stacey Abrams Only God you you know whatever ten thousand more votes than Hillary Clinton on my do you have any idea what you're saying marriage should not. It should never shouldn't even be. She shouldn't be within I'm fifty thousand votes of Hillary Clinton let alone exceeding alerting midterm turnout for presidential area. Right right right I mean so just astronomic energy in the electorate right now and it. Is You know this product of of I mean it's a civic many. We're we're going through some scary times and anybody follow me on. Twitter will know that. I'm I'm on team. Doom of where we are now but you know we also have a civil acidic like renaissance going on too. I mean we'll see we'll see if the civic what which which is going to prevail team doom or or civic civic renaissance on on Election Day November twenty twenty but you know for many many people the election of Donald all trump was a wake up. Call Yeah well. That's exactly that comes back to the beginning of what we were talking about that. That line at sticks with neither the woman said to Hillary didn't vote Sorry didn't vote. Didn't think you needed me now. They know they're needed. And this is the line I keep saying about trump. He won last time because people didn't really think he could win. Now they we can and that's why I don't think you will. Yeah and in my forecast I say Donald Trump has gone from a person that nobody thought could be the president to a person that people feel a treat like. He's the terminator right like he cannot be. He cannot be killed. I mean they're they're like and uh no and I say this to in the forecast. No amount of polling data were forecast into this election in the fall of twenty twenty is ever going to convince people all that he's GonNa lose to because of what happened so you know they the energy and the turnout rates are going to be extremely high. That said you know it's not tinfoil hat to assume the GOP is willing. And I think they've demonstrated this by their inaction Given the Senate Intel report that we saw all come out. I mean months ago but again yesterday begging for a Bob Muller you know in front of Congress. Hey we need election security. We're not seeing those things is because the GOP believes that interference with benefit them electorally. There you know it's not going to be a clean election. We know that. So you know there are just things that that are gonNA be working against against democracy to and ultimately though if enough people vote and we saw this in the midterms. It's just it's just. It's going to overwhelm around any effort. That could possibly be yeah. It won't matter exactly well matter. No that's for sure and there's no bigger motivator than than trump that's been obviously I keep emphasizing that again. I think it's what you just said where people are. You can have them as much as you want. And they still are fearful won't believe lose but that's a motivator to get them to the polls which is ultimately for those who want trump defeated what we want But I do say that there really isn't any data that you can point to That puts trump in anything but a really bad position for reelection again. That's why I keep emphasizing located off the top that it was a fluke win. We have to acknowledge this. That's absolutely right. I mean it's a freak accident. I mean you know the things that had to come together to make that happen. Once the reason nobody saw let coming and that includes nate silver. You know whose model technically had a fifteen percent probability of trump electoral college win I and a popular vote You know going to Clinton by by almost three percent. So He's you know He. He is technically covered in the model. But nobody nobody nobody saw it coming and the reason is because it is a it was just a hit. Everything had to come together right exactly which we assume won't happen in twenty twenty money listen. I've really enjoyed it a next time. Maybe maybe can come on again and we can talk some red state stuff which I like to do on this podcast of course but we time covering this and it was important so I appreciate your insights and thanks for joining us? Thanks for having me okay. Great all right. Rachel Bitta coffer or she calls herself on twitter later. Rachel the Dock Pittock offer because she is a doctor of political science. I believe On twitter she's Her handle is at Rachel. Bitta coffer. I we'll spell that for you. B. I. T. C. O. F. E. R.. Sounds like it should be pronounced Bychkov. But it's BEC- offer at Rachel viticulture. You can find her twitter and she mentioned The university where a lot of that data and analysis. It's spelled W. A. S. E. N.. Wassen center you can google that she suggested and again a reminder. She came out with her mid-term predictions that the Democrats were going to have a blue wave and flip forty seats She came up with that in the summer of two thousand eighteen. Way Ahead of anybody else and As we discussed in the interview she published wish that New York Times piece. which you'll want Google January of this year saying basically trump's GONNA lose so She someone to keep an eye on Rachel obita cover appreciate her joining us today. you can follow me on twitter as well as I always let you know. I'm the civil liberal but my handle is at. CF The podcast for also on facebook book. We love it when you Like the page on facebook just search for cf the podcast I post the episodes of course but other things other articles and other interesting things going on and particularly in the red states what Democrats are doing. We didn't get a chance to go over at fully with Rachel but you know she did hint at Texas and Georgia and some of these red states that are ripe for the picking for Democrats that's Both the Senate races in probably at the presidential level with trump on the ballot in two thousand twenty cf the podcast dot com of course the website. That's where you can hear other episodes. The PODCAST PODCAST DOT COM And if you want to support the podcast you can click support which is on the website and we appreciate any Kindness you may be feeling towards the podcast we have some expenses we record at DB audio dot ca a fantastic studio and we have some marketing and website hosting and design design Costs as well so every little bit helps and we do appreciate it and also there's a mailing list on the website and the mailing list is our best way to keep in touch with you about episodes when they're released and anything else we might be doing in the near future Who knows maybe we'll do a live? podcast day that people can actually show up and attend or some other prevents so we love it when you sign up for the mailing list. It's free I think it's at the bottom of the homepage. Should take you about thirty seconds to fill in and we will be in touch and nothing in your inbox except official correspondents from CF headquarters. That wraps up another fine edition of cluster by thanks for listening the cluster podcast a liberal host with Red Red State Guests Roger. King that'll be.

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EP 212: Studying Muslim Trends and Patterns in the U.S | Dahlia Mogahed and Youssef Chouhoud

The Mad Mamluks

59:43 min | 5 months ago

EP 212: Studying Muslim Trends and Patterns in the U.S | Dahlia Mogahed and Youssef Chouhoud

"Welcome to the minimum looks. Podcast my name is tim. Along with me is my co host. My heinous lomb We have a wonderful show for you guys. This evening Before we get started makes you click on likened subscribe in that and make sure you commented the comes section below and give us your thoughts related to the show and criticisms of if you like and help out peter dot com slash the maximum. Luke's alternatively you can help us out via paypal madame. Luke's dot com backslash donate folks. We have a wonderful episode for you. Guys we have W moudjahid we'll go ahead. I'm sorry Representing the institute of social policy and understanding. And be have you showed. It's out there prince right. we're all brown. We all know the the the dilemma between pronunciations. and everything. so i thank you for joining us. We were referred to as by our front end of starts and He put us in touch with you. you've been a previous guest of ours and we've had a wheel such a huge dot to you for coming on our show. I know my he remembers that very well It was The marriage crisis right. Yeah that was a different kind of a again based on social media it was a tweet and you know remember you know we. We obviously like yeah well she. She was running around that day too and she made some time and she was like super exhausted. And she's like all right. I'll i'll make it out to you guys and it was a really nice gesture dahlia made for us and we'll never forget. We don't forget when people do shavers. It was my pleasure. Thank you for having me that time. And today So recently the ice pugh ran opole related to Muslims and The various intersections related to race and we'll slim's and how they How those demographics of played out in the can became controversial on facebook with a lot of muslims who identified as white came up on that whole as being trump supporters and a lot of people who whether they're white or not with eyebrow raising because because of various reasons related to just the fact that there's not that many white muslims to begin with what Identify what Categories or what how why people or how muslims were chose to identify themselves. The white i guess Because there's so many different people who may Like even arabs. We know a lot of times. Identifies themselves as white or Albanians or bosnians or converts so a lot of this stuff came into play like our white people are not the same as american. White people are the channel White men that is race in america and it just it caused a lot of Also if i if i understand correctly it's not the first time that you guys. This is the fifth pole. You guys have run rate for the for the american muslim bullets at twenty th. This is the twenty twenty version. You've run it in the last five years. So yes so anyways. Some kind of you were a little upset about. How was framed a little bit. And how i wanted to you what you wanna talk about. What upsets you about it or what you said like how because it was a comparison being made to You know our white people and traditionally white into traditional white man. That's grown up in this country. It's not the same thing so i was like what. What kind of comparison are we making. Why are we trying to You know make make ourselves so similar to those demographics You know. And i think that just that was one of my main concerns related to it so i was like well. Let's have w on the show. And hopefully she can clarify this. Yeah thank you. Well i thank you for having me on the show to clarify that definitely the best way to move forward and have this dialogue rather than you know talking past each other on social media or whatever so i i just commend you for doing that and i'm also really happy that you this with with a with me. I were both here to discuss it. Dr who has been working with us on an ice pugh since the second poll. I think i don't. I don't think he was there for the first one. But for the past four years at least and an absolutely pivotal and and critical Our work because He's either a co author or the data analysts this year he was also an adviser. So i'm really glad he's here to so let me just start by. Maybe taking a step back and explain why we do this. Poll what it's for. And and then dive in a little bit about the race categories that you know that you're specifically referring to so every year since two thousand sixteen so this is our fifth pole we've been doing. A representative scientific survey of american will slums as well as the general public and american jews and then within the general public were able to divide out into the major religious groups. So we have Catholics protestants non affiliated americans and then within the protestant community where you know later on. We started to break out white evangelical. Because they're just such a distinct group so what we do. Is we give all of the samples identical questionnaires. And we ask you know. Americans have different faith backgrounds and no background. No faith bac background. The exact same questions about their politics. Their views of social issues Their likelihood to vote who they're voting for and then we developed something called the islamic index three years ago and we've been measuring year after year. A a set of you standard questions to measure the level of Endorsement in the public four anti-muslim tropes and those index is really important because we found that You know endorsing anti-muslim trump's is linked to a bunch of really important things like Sympathy to violence. sympathy to authoritarianism And then also just being more tolerant of anti muslim policies like the muslim ban and and mosser villains. We measure that every year we measured across the religious spectrum including muslims. How many muslims endorse intimacy slim tropes so within the The survey we ask a standard number of demographic questions which include a race question. Where folks are asked to identify their racial background. So it's all self identified and we offer a arab category so you are arab and identifies era. that is an option and the other Other than that. It's the base. It's the kind of standard racial united states. American are consents. Black latino or hispanic We have an american And so forth. And what we've found and this is year after year is roughly twenty percent of american muslims. Identifies white quote unquote white Another around eighteen. Twenty percent identifies asian around around the same amount identifies as arab And then around. Twenty five to thirty three percent identifies black african american. We have a growing percentage. We started out. It was like three percents. Now it's eight percent identifies latino and we have two percent identify as native american. So it's interesting. Because the percentage of native americans in the general public is the same as in the muslim community and most people may may not know that and that was kind of an interesting little discovery for us. So you know we take it at face. Value is folks who are self identifying white now we looked at it in a little bit more detail and half of those So lemme take one more step back and we also look at where folks were born and we just ask if you're born in the united states or they were born outside the us. Half of american. Muslims generally are native born in america and half are People who immigrated to america within the group that is called white or self identifies as white You know it. It's basically that that's the breakdown it's half are. Roughly half are native. Born half are immigrants at health. How many people just you guys interviewed. So for the american slum It's a roughly eight hundred respondents eight hundred. That's eight hundred responding adler eight. Hundred total respondent as muslims. Because you you throw a wide net over every okay and yeah so it's eight hundred muslim respondents roughly three hundred and fifty jewish respondents and then twelve hundred of the public and divide it out into some of the sub religious how does the The poll come to them. This is it like a pop up on obvious pop up. I'm just giving an example but does it how how are these polls disseminated pop to the public in a scientific manner so really good question we for the past five years we've been working with an organization called. Srs you probably have never heard of them. But they do all the polling for the washington post for cbs for abc for Cnn they they're like the top one of the top polling firms in the country but the reason we work with them even more than just the fact that they do so much. You know mainstream. Polling are the top polling firm for pulling american jews. And that's that's how we found is that they are the top You know sort of like national experts on finding and polling religious minorities that are hard to find because there a small percentage of the population. So what they do is they. They do so many national polls and so they just do a random selection of american households completely at random by doing random digital dialing slate. Phone phone calls and because they've been to been doing these for years. They've built up a really big database. What they have now is people who are being called completely at random who identifies muslim. So they they weren't they. Don't go out and find them by looking at like lists of muslim sounding names or anything like that they're just calling such a jain norma's number of american households that you get enough calls out that the one percent that are muslim are a big enough sample that now you can call them back and do this poll for us so they have these households of all been selected at random. Just calling an american household and by chance that household most slum and then those people get called back for our poll. And that's the same thing with the jewish sample so they have to identify muslims. They won't like if they if they call you if you if your if your grandfather was muslim and you might but you're not but you say i don't really follow that that wouldn't count. That person would have to pick up the phone and say identifies the muslim so one of the questions on on our survey is just asking people what religion identify with. And and so. If you say you're most than you would be in our sample. I know like for example in their most recent election polling related to Trump and bite in and trying to find out what you know from at least from what. Pollsters say that you know. There's a problem of trump's supporters not wanting to identify as a as a trump supporter. So they won't give accurate information. So there's this group called trafalgar square or not close. Yeah trafalgar group or whatever did. They came up with a new pulling mechanism. Apparently it's much more accurate to identify people who are not Identifying themselves or or you know truthfully and not representing themselves accurately so they have various mechanisms in place to present more accurate accurate numbers in at least from what they claim or from. What i've read is that they were accurate in previous elections using these methodologies. What are your thoughts on that. Incorporate anything like that in your own methods so first of all those methods about this shy trump supporter are highly controversial in the polling space. So this this is not something that everybody agrees on. And i believe one of the questions i ask them is. Are you know who do you support. And if they save biden ask them who their neighbors supports. And if they say their neighbors support trump and account them as a trump supporter. I don't even understand how that works. That doesn't make any sense to me. So there's lots of There's lots of responses to why that doesn't work and how they may have gotten the right answer by accident in the wrong way i won't. I won't even comment about this topic and all those methods are somewhat controversial. We don't do anything like that when moore identify muslims. Them straight up. It's just from my own perspective. Just looking at though the white muslim population that i know of that we've anecdotally met through our own interactions at the mosque. Or or what have you we just. It just seems such a stretch that from the data you have gathered that there would that there would be so similar to What traditional white americans would have in their views towards towards trump. And i actually disagree with him. I think your gate is accurate from the muslims. I've met all really. Yeah i taught because but they're not public about it. I did a show the other now. Some of them may not outwardly vote for trump sentiments are because the thing is i know some of a strain of told me they're different vote. Okay okay. some of them aren't as vocal about it. Because of the backlash from the community. So i i believe they are pulled in animus actually so a how many how many people were white in that poll out of eight hundred roughly twenty percent so i just wanted to mention two points about their their support for trump. I want to mention a couple of things first of all white. Muslims are not the same as white people in the general public in in on most things. So i just wanna put that just clarify that. They weren't the same as general on one thing. and that was a rule of trump. Okay fifty percent. White muslin said they approved of the performance of the president which was similar to the general public where forty percent of white people said the same but when it came to support for trump wanting him to be the next president it was thirty percent among white muslims which is much higher than non white muslims but still lower than white people. Generally so i came to just like choosing him as president yes. They were more likely than other muslims but less likely than white folks generally the other thing is we look at things like black lives matter white. Muslims more supportive of black lives matter than white people in general click so though it's not identical on every single thing it's just it was surprising to us. It's not something we look for or even expect that we couldn't not notice that when it came to approval of the president. They were similar. This year. You know to to white people identify as white in the general public. Now a lotta times we will ask. Who are these white muslims. How how twenty percent of muslims wipe. That's insane that's impossible. I mean we we are. I have ever given a presentation where that number has not been called out as like beyond belief twenty. I'm i i'm certain of the number being right just because all five years it's come out the same. When i was at gallup it was the same pew gets the same number. Like there's no way we all got it wrong. You know year after your three different firms it just it is what it is. That's the percentage of people who des light. Now now we do give. Arab is an option. So you can still be arab and not want to say her arab i. I don't think that's many people but you have albanians. You're absolutely right. you have bosnians. you have turks. You have a persians iranians who who all would identify as white and then you do have some converts. It's not. It's not all twenty percent this half of them we know are immigrants But you have have them. That are born here also. They don't all have to be converts but some are and the other thing. I've noticed i just wanted to mention this because it's interesting and this is more my observation data so this is not a data driven statement about to me but it is my observation. There are way more white converts were women versus men like way more and so i had so many white males laments saying i see like one other white guy in the whole mess a thousand people whatever. Maybe those numbers are exactly right but white men who are muslim think they are so rare but white muslim women are incredibly common. It's like every fourth person at the masjid. A white muslim woman is so common to have white muslin linen everywhere so i really don't. We got our own. Karen source of trump's supporting. I'm not saying that you're just being silly. like men. the percent -ality of i think is the fact that they are on the men's side looking at man i think to. I'm thinking about organizations like in chicago. Tat leaf where you have a a a high convert population now. Maybe that's white women there but again that's generally that's going to be more your seymour converts there as well. So right you use of how. How did you get into this specific poll. And where did you. What role did you function as. Yeah so thanks. Thanks for having a song is So i mentioned I've been A part of the ip team when it comes to this poll for a number of years now and I actually play a much smaller role during that. Very first. Poll to But yes since then I'm the i've played a slightly bigger roles but But yes so so. I was co-author with elia on the second and third poll a seventeen and eighteen and then these past couple of polls I served as that analysts than and most recently adviser As you know now. I transitioned from Simply being graduate student to do the taking on a tenure track position so had to kind of re shift the focus a little bit But so as you know the reason that i that i enjoy working so much with ice. Bu is because You know for one thing. They're research measures quite well with what i'm interested in So i'm actually teaching a course this semester on identity politics and Teaching a course a couple of semesters on religion politics and so the these kinds of questions Animate a lot of you know what i think about on just the day to day basis And so i. I wanted to just i know we've been talking about a little wild but You know this notion this notion of race and race race ethnicity With regards to questions on surveys. It can be a little confusing for folks. So if you'll indulge me. I just wanted to just take a a take a minute or so. Just to really Shopping a couple of points. Those who might not be too familiar with with how these data gathered And so when you see you know a statistic like an attitude or behavior. Broken down by racing ethnishity You know the overwhelming majority of surveys. And i mean something like you know ninety plus percent What they're conveying is simply self reported are race and ethnic categories so effectively. What isp when just about every other poll is is conveying is not you know something of like a racial or ethnic essence. Right I mean that's that's how a lot of folks kinda think outrage like you are this race or you are this ethnicity. But that's that's not really how you know. A anybody in the social sciences really thinks about race race. Right again you know. I just wanted to emphasize like is is in putting people into these categories right Saying you know where you from and then your wife of where you from. Oh you're black right and you know. I've seen a couple of comments online. Something to the effect of you know only is you knows how they categorize these people and and honestly that couldn't be farther from the truth because you know honestly at bottom and i'm more than happy to kind of go into this if you really want to but i want say it bottom races this kind of very weird construct that we've imbued with a whole lot of meaning right and so it takes on this meaning when we attach ourselves to one race or another and so that's why we asked about race and ethnicity. So if somebody says that they are white right that is meaningful. That's saying something when you know you give yourself you give somebody a a menu of options right white black asian arab mixed or none of the above and they affirmatively choose white right. That's that's saying something about their subjective and objective reality Right if they're saying. I am part of the dominant racial group in this society Then they are going to have different anxieties different experiences different preferences than those who are non white and so. I think it's really important to kind of wrap our heads around because you know when we say something you know like as you know white muslims. I only know five of them right. You know how was it that you got these many well. That's because you're thinking of whites in a particular way right but you can be persian and think of yourself as white presumably. You can be albanian. You can be turkish and think of yourself as white and so you know. And as you mentioned maybe some arabs thought of themselves yourself you on arab you have a choice to say that you were arab and you say that you are white i mean how can we not think that they're going to have different preferences than somebody else. Who chose arab. Absolutely that. And i think a lot of people Found that these trends non-answer with is p. u. But within lager muslim organizations trying to find some kind of commonality and kind of transposing our issues with the same issues that broader american society has right And trying to say like it's not necessarily that is pew framed it this way and i'm not trying to say that they did but People look at those numbers and say see. Look our crazies are the same as your crazies. We have the same number of crazy trump supporters. You know the crazy white man is at it again in our in our own demographic and You know so. I think the i think in that context is what we're kind of talking about this issue. Is that our community is not. It's not it's not a very at least are white. People are not the same as white people. You know the problem and we would agree on. I'm you know our numbers that show that. But i i just don't i think it would be. I agree with what you're saying at the same time to assume that race has no salience in our community. When it comes to the president would would also be incorrect right. There are some really stark differences and so absolutely doesn't mean from both sides. That's not even like even you know making huge claim there because anyone who's ignoring that is ignoring just the rhetoric that comes from the trump administration from jared kushner. And and what have you An and even trump's you know just recently making different What's it called dog whistles to various a white nationalist sub so so we know that that there is rate has become a politicized subject but introducing dole's Kind that kind of language into our communities from community leaders and people who communicate to our You know various platforms and the public. In general. a lot of us are worried that does type of themes are interjecting themselves into Muslim culture muslim society. And you know just hearing my own teens talk about race and you know making various comments related to people's necessities racism And sometimes you know. It's become fashionable to make fun of white people And make We have muslims. We don't we don't ignore people's in ethnicity or read it. We're not colorblind. We know that these are inherent inherent characteristics and traits related to humanity. But we don't make the distinction between races away way that it has kind of played out in broader american society as an example i think sims alluding to is that Obviously no one's accusing. Isp of having you guys are just publishing data right. It's all of this data. I think but i think sometimes data i think the point you're trying to make here and i can kinda see this. Is that when you when it comes out as like a poll like you see it. Data point like twenty for example. I was quoting. I think your pulse at thirty percent of muslims. In america general not race are likely to vote for trump or biden and that's increased in past years that accurate. That sound right okay. it's not quite right. Fifteen percent of muslims Are supportive trumping. The next president. They want to vote for him okay. Thirty percent of muslims generally approve of his job performance. Mesh okay okay. And then there's actually voting for an okay. Okay so i think people see maybe a clip and then they just don't understand because like you're you're you're there you can go through your paper and your methodology. It's all public right. People are seeing that and then they see. Oh this is a way to like like oh is this a wait till doughboy because what happens is that you have so you have trump's in our community like for example there's trump. I hear a lot that when a person converts to islam we need to wait ten years to make sure that i'm not an informant. I've actually heard this right. It's more kind said tongue in cheek though. Sometimes people always went away rather the white brother always a suspicion right. There's that's why. I think that's what the when you see something like that. And they're like oh. This is a thing to single out. A certain demographic. But it's this data rate. I think so. How do you balance that. I guess the question is this basically extrapolating various social narratives from from that data. And and how you can. I know that's not necessarily might not be your job. As a as an organization. I mean presenting. You know just The value in showing something shocking as Why people having that. Those kind of views related to trump will gain a lot of us. Like whoa who's ice in. What were the all about You know they publish this recent poll finding you know all these white muslim support trump that kind of stuff you know it can people create narratives around it. You know and. I think that's a- maybe. You can comment on being a data analyst in extrapolating a lot of this data and some of the narratives that can be formed from the data. How do you. How do you manage this So i mean the data are never going to speak for themselves right. We we hit that term. You know quite often and The data only going to be there right and used as a tool and they can be used as a tool to kind of Crashed a better understanding of your subject or they can be used as you're saying basically as a cultural to kind of you know A beat somebody over the head with them and how you use that that It's it's less a function of the data and how it's initially presented does more about the person themselves right. That's actually kind of leveraging that data You know so. So the the poll itself by and large You know gives these You know cross tabulations So so just you know. If you're white you know how do you feel about you. Know this issue right and there's only so much that you can really get out of that now on the back end. I make sure that there isn't You know something else going on there where it's not so much that your white but it's you know i it's native-born versus immigrant. You know this income bracket for that income bracket i make sure to kind of control for all that on the back end so that you know what's actually presented is something of a meaningful relationship but again at the end of the day. You know this is only you know what we're just presenting these things link with each other right. You need a dedicated. Study to figure out you know how ailing too that right and so absent that you know you have folks kind of imputing their own narratives onto that. Oh this must be what's happening right But the actual report doesn't really provide those kinds of You know kind of Fleshed out narratives Around each and every thing right and it might it might give you kind of you know hints. Oh maybe we want to look a bit more about this or maybe we want to kind of keep this in mind and every once in a while you know we'll take a deeper dive in order to kind of get at perhaps the mechanism that's driving this relationship But all i can say is you know I think. I think what is what is Something that we really into work on in our community is that illiteracy In order to kind of you know better digest this as it comes in. Because i think you might actually be right. People kinda see These graphs these these These figures And then they kind of you know the mind goes wild right. And they all kinds of confirmation bias. Oh that's why i saw you know Joe act this way Back day because he was a trump quarter right obviously You know yeah so so. I understand where you're coming from and i think the solution is not so much to think about You know how to You know certainly. it shouldn't be to kind of you. Know sh hide this data right because you know we we we. We need to better understand our community and the diversity within our community you know some people might be trump supporters. Let's understand why that is. I think i think if you went to somebody Absent this data and said hey actually. This is a not insignificant portion of american. Muslims support trump. Say no of course. Not but now. You've got the data to support that and now it's incumbent upon us to understand. Why is it that fifteen percent would want a trump to be president right I signed so. I think it's not to hide that. But it's to teach Communities teach individuals how to better Process that data in more useful routes. I'll to correct the post last night about third clip. The fifty percent goes on a common thread. But i think fifty percents even shocking the people. Because you know there's this like when you see the idea like the comments social media at least on my feed is that they're shocked at a muslim would vote for trump like it's almost like a completely and i'm like no it's actually a really i mean it's a reality mean fifty percent and it may be that can get kinda give you to give you a corollary. Really make this absolutely clear. Who if i would ask you. Who who what is the demographic that is the base for donald trump. That is his core hard core base. If i asked you. What is that demographic. What would you say White christian white evangelical essentially right sure. Yeah why do you ben. Juggles one six of them on not voting trump right so if one six of his hardcore base are not voting for trump. Then what is it you know how. Who are we to say that you know. We are more hardcore right. Yeah you know when when when it comes to only having two choices you can only push those numbers so far before you reach you. Know a kind of a a a natural barrier right and it's just gonna work out that way where fifteen percent still. It's one in six right so that's still a very low percentage but you know to expect that it's going to be next to nil not realistic well. Does this go ahead. I talked to muslim. Trump supporters view of them. I discovered are on my news. Feed and the their Point of view is is like you know some of them for example are egyptian see supporters and they love trump absolutely adore him. And they think he's tough on terrorism and he supported. Ccc and they think he's great nbc trump called see his favorite dictator and so they actually support them from their heart because they see him as sort of a colour. A like the The the american cece. That's a entire group of people and that's a lot of people. There's another group that see you know. They're concerned about biden on syria. And they're worried about how he's going to deal with syria. So that's an emma. Thanks in american support trump but there is a segment that See trump is more friendly to their one little topic that they care about The other group that you might be surprised by uber. Muslims right because he's very tough on china very tough on china and they're worried that biden won't be a stuff so when you kind of narrow your view into just like one thing i only care about this and it happens to be by random coincidence that trump is on the side that you're on for that one topic you can be completely you can just ignore everything else about him and decide that you're going to be a trump supporter so that that explains some of these people and when we we actually did. I don't know if you remember. Do you remember when the air strikes were happening on on syria so many muslims that was early on in his administration but so many muslims jumped out of their fear because they skip out. Yeah you got to but more so when the started attacking charlotte said right with those airstrikes. A lot of muslims are as well. What's really that bad. So i'm glad so. I think we have to recognize that quote unquote american. Muslims are not just who we know or who we hang out with our friends. You know there. There were a very diverse community. We really are and our poll shows that instead so many different ways And that's just a. It's just a reality we have to talk about. You know and and it's like podcasts. Like yours are the platform for us to have these conversations. They're real things. We have to talk about it. I i think you know it's neither that we hide the data or that we allow on one narrative to run away with it. We have to make it a dialogue. But we've done. We've done a a an analysis on trump's supporting People in general public trump supporting muslims. And you know one thing that comes out of that analysis is prioritizing the economy is one of the predictors so that is another reason that these fifteen percent of muslims exist right if you're if it's somehow advantageous to your economic interests you might still support trump. Even though his way he the things about him. So i think we have to keep those things in mind to ignore it so i don't. He's pretty public about for a guy. I used to work for back in ohio. He's half pakistani of bangladesh. And he's like donald trump's a scumbag. I would never let my kids. But i agree with a lot of his policies and form. Well yeah i think. At least wh-what low from daddy. It said related to the weaker muslims right. That was something that was passionate. 'cause i was very You know passionate about. And i have people on our program representing the weaker community talking about their platon honestly want when he levied those sanctions and the way. He amped up the rhetoric against china. I know he has his own ulterior motives. I'm not saying that. He's championing the cause of islam and muslims. I'm just saying you wouldn't you. May you may not necessarily have seen that same type of and urge is rhetoric from a democratic candidate. I'm not saying. I'm voting for democrats or whatever i'm just saying. What a at least from the The message that you want to you want heard and seen sometimes trump does a better job at least the respect. Right down the question for you The one thing i was reading the new methodologies pre-testing which i have a hard time wrapping my head that concept. Can you explain what pre-testing is. Yeah sure so what we do. Is we take the questionnaire we've drafted and srs calls. Some people and protests a questionnaire asks them questionnaire. We make sure that the questions first of all questioner isn't too long. It's not taking like three hours or something we think it's only gonna take forty five minutes but secondly that people seem to understand what the questions mean that they're not sort of like housing or or answering in such a way. That sounds like it doesn't make sense to them. So that's all it means it. Just it's testing out the questionnaire to make sure everything's super clear and so we'll always get feedback from those pre-test it's only about like five to ten Surveys that we do and we can actually been listened to the recordings and then we'll make some edits based on that to make just for clarity and links you see coming up with a lot of the questions. And i think some people have wondered. Are there other social. Narratives that plane to How or what you ask potential respondents to your surveys. Well our questionnaire Is drafted from a lot of different sources First of all we have you know group of advisers that are sort of top. Researchers on american will slums and they all have experienced with survey research and so our advisers play into our questionnaire. We also come up with the topics of our questionnaire based on You know what folks are talking about. Just us observing reading speaking to people travel all over the country before coveted and and we heard from people. What are the biggest challenges facing american muslims. So we're trying to be responsive to what people care about the third kind of source of Of questions are the results of previous polls so when something comes back and it's interesting like well. Why is that happening. Or it's sort of like almost like a follow up question or digging a little deeper into a different part of the question. So our questionnaires. Are you know. The topics are gathered from a lot of different places including just like the general community in addition to expert advice. Well yeah i mean because there's also pugh and other leading research polls of pulling companies as well so The the obvious question comes into mind while wise ice pugh even needed if pugh and other organizations are doing the same or you know doing the same type of fat gathering serving and things like that. That's a good question. First of all. I mean just i just first off We worked very closely with few to make sure that were not duplicating. Good work so we actually don't ask about the same things so I was an adviser on the pew survey that just that the most recent one i think it was two thousand seventeen and And we talked to pew and have them. I mean we we we show them our survey and we make sure that what we're doing is different so we really care about using resources efficiently. And if they're asking question they're asking a topic. We shouldn't ask the same question. So that's one thing to keep in mind is that we coordinate. The second thing though is that they do their poll. Once every five years we do ours every every year so we are gathering data in a you know more regularly. The third difference is our questions are asked of americans at large so we always have a comparison group until very recently pugh was only asking muslims and so they didn't they didn't have Lake they didn't have kind of like a comparison group on a lot of questions. But this last this past Survey they did ask a comparison on some of the questions but the the final reason that we are work is unique. Needed is that hughes goal is to put out interesting research for the public about muslims and so oh no like well. Let's ask about this question. That only the muslim community were since aren't included soaking. Could you repeat that again. Here robot is interesting. Can you repeat that less statement because you broke yet so the less okay. What i said is pew doesn't include questions. That would only interest muslims about themselves. They're looking at doing stuff. That is interested a general public a general audience. General reader is pew is is a community based organization. So we're doing both You know research on how the public views mwale slums and maybe issues that might be of interest to the public but were very interested in doing research that is of interest to muslims about themselves. That are gonna help community development which is not fused mission does. That's not their issue. They're doing completely different. So we have questions on our poll that are that are critical for american muslim community development. For its own sake And so that's another way that we're very unique from from what he was doing. If i can just the just add something real quick there what what what Is you allows us to do is to get at some of those kind of known unknown leads for the community that's primarily What what what. The poll Is is is populated with these questions that you know we just we. Just we want answers to But what it also allows us to do based on his collaboration with a lot of researchers Who you know spend spend a lot of time studying american muslims Is to get at you know from a community perspective. Some of the unknown unknown by the things that they perhaps quite know that they don't know and that now that isp you has has has brought it to the poor. They're like oh. Wow that's that's really interesting. And so in in this. Most recent survey we talked about this notion of coalition building. Where does our community Lie with regards to you. Know kind of building coalitions with these Various social political groups in society You know at a time. When american will some political consciousness is still quite nascent. I mean this is. This is really important that and served as kind of a baseline that you could compare to now moving forward Who's auditing you guys. Is there like a company. Like one of those kept type. Companies who goes on audits The work that you guys do and make sure insurance that sakya it and everything. You have nodded like that in in the research world. Well i'm not sure. Don't use of fudging the numbers. I'm just. I'm just wanted more of like a panel of pure view and that that's what our advisers poke ed. I was just curious. I haven't been to industries. Like i work at healthcare and so yeah fda authored and everything. I do not. And like who. Because i i'm my work is with the security. It's done by through so that would be the process that we would use a to. That is pew. You just recently won an award for being the top An award for our board for just being a really well run nonprofit just in general on. This isn't just you know in our space but just generally as a nonprofit so we we were very diligent about getting outside auditing of different in different ways. When it comes to our research we do that through a review process. Yeah i'll just say to the group The the the firm that's commission to run the survey again. Azaleas mentioned in the beginning of very highly reputable firm and so it's based nino the the audit i guess. A sense is The reputation of the firm and also the transparency of the firm with regards to to its methods and in the research world Really transparency is the gold standard not so much You know somebody else come cuts once. You're transparent with with the method and the winter peers and personal scientific open. Air audit Do you guys have any closing thoughts or anything. I did filter ask that you probably think i should have asked that before you go. I want to again reiterate what we talked about earlier on our podcast. Pence will go off a tweet or something on social media. And we'll talk. We'll talk about it. Oftentimes many other and this is obviously talking about other muslims. We have we. There's no shade intended right But people sometimes take the wrong way. I appreciate you guys coming on and having the conversation because a lot of times we are willing to always have the conversation. Yeah and some. Yeah i would say more often. We really would like more people like yourselves coming on reaching out to us to say. Hey we love to have competition about it because the intent is the have like. It's not it's a more of a discussion so one. Sometimes some one of our hosts will make a comment related to something. There's a shooting. This is all like free. You know free conversation. No one's really prepared done so deep dive a homework with you know we all do our research at least to a certain extent but we're not scientists and we're talking like regular muslim to talk at a table or over dinner or whatever and and sometimes People's feelings get hurt. And you know a lot of you guys are really hard working people in. I know you know i it. It's a sting when someone ninety backs. Yeah we're just you know we're just talking off our coffin. You know hugo have spent like tens of thousands of hours on this type of research and we kind of like dismissed. It doesn't make any sense blah like completely homer simpson. You know so. I really applaud you guys for coming on and really taking the time to explain to us because there are so many people such as yourselves who we may have criticizing the past. Who just kind of canceled us your idea. The individuals here is issued a poll out. And just there's always this. We're always very protective of our community. These more if there's something that we could measure. I don't know how you would measure but i think in terms of all the different sub sects of or intersections of america. Muslims are very at this. Our leadership is a lot more protective. About what kind of message is disseminating in our group Nb at least from our perspective. We're really protective about some of the social media. Melodrama infecting our people. I know i know it happens. Irregardless of what we wanted whether we wanted to happen or not. It's happening but we're we're trying our best to stop it from happening. So sometimes we get a little bit You know worked up about certain opinion. Silver i really appreciate you guys coming on and helping us through any prediction. Any predictions of this episode is airing after the election. So data you are. I does biden a win by or drift trump win. And by how much. I don't make any progress take i do. I do a lot of crazy. So i wanna say i absolutely sincerely thank you for inviting assign willing to have this conversation because we need to have way more conversations a lot less canceling of each other so i am always willing common clarified things and jesse explain how how we do what we do. Because you know yousef and i you know this is not where the big bucks are. We are just so passionate about getting good information out there. I mean the idea why i get up every morning. I care so much about doing. My work is because i feel called by our faith to tell the truth and that the truth will always set you free in the end. It might not it. Might it might hurt. It might make you mad. I but it will. It will in the end. Set you for your better off knowing than not knowing the truce and when it comes to our community not only what is really happening is how we're going to grow. It's how we're actually going to heal. And unfortunately because we're always feeling so under siege and for good reason you know sometimes that that hurts our ability to know what is really happening in our own community. Because we're so busy protecting ourselves and that's natural that's completely understandable and that's why we try to deal with these. You know difficult results sometimes in as with as much context as much sensitivity as possible rather than you know we're not trying to sensationalize we're not trying to throw out crazy numbers into the world and and And cause problems. That's not our intent. In any way. But i i applied the approach. You're taking which is even when you're not super happy about a report that you take the time to discuss it rather than just pass a conclusion and move on. Yeah it's a pleasure having you guys Use of any closing thoughts. You where's your prediction at declined. Oh come on. I just make that and i trust that alone will give us the leader that we need for this all right. Hopefully the leader. We deserve. But i just i just want to echo. I mean you know when when You guys supposed about this facebook. i hope it was. It was clear that you know. I wanted to to engage in a productive way and i. I'm really happy that that we had this opportunity to do so. I mean that. Said though i mean you know i know we have Because of my is the panel is we want to keep everything kind of respectable. But i mean. I've listened to you guys in the past back. If you wanna come you know. Allow me to come back on this. And i'm from then. I can keep absolutely man. Challenge accepted accepted and use of the just just reading your wall on facebook in. So you're you're an episode on. Its own dental. I didn't focus too much on you. Because i know like. You're you're on my radar. I'm like i got in shallow. We'll make it happen. It might have anything else on all right guys question comments and concerns up without or contact us at info at the minimum luke's dot com. Help us out on paycheck. Dot com backslash. The madame luke's and alternatively you can go to the metro bookstore com slash. Donate and make sure you like subscribe and comment in the section below. Be nice book will respond. If you're nicer mean the youtube algorithm usually delete york mean comment before we do so. Don't get mad at us. All folks we'll see all next time election mubarak slowly.

america pugh institute of social policy biden general public and american je mosser trump trafalgar group Luke White muslin jared kushner Muslim culture muslim society
NPR News: 02-17-2020 10PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 02-17-2020 10PM ET

"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Barbara Klein. Hundreds of American cruise ship passengers are back in the US after being evacuated from a cruise ship in Japan where they were quarantined amid the new corona virus outbreak thirteen or being treated in isolation in Nebraska but most are in quarantine again in California and Texas Carson Frame of Texas public radio reports from Lackland Air Force Base. A charter flight carrying the passengers touchdown just before four. Am The aircraft. A seven forty seven was divided into different sections to isolate people with symptoms of corona virus or positive test results. Dr William Walters is with the State Department's Bureau of Medical Services. He says medical professionals dropped plastic to separate them. 'cause like ten feet tall and has one entrance one exit at the back of that isolation area protect the rest of the passengers and the rest of the crew from from any spread. The Department of Defense says it intends for lack. Winds Corona virus quarantine zone to remain available through mid March Lackland is equipped to handle up to two hundred and fifty quarantined people for NPR news. I'm Carson frame in San Antonio in Virginia a controversial gun. Bill has been defeated. Republicans and a handful of Democrats on a state Senate committee rejected the measure that would have banned the sale of assault style. Weapons Whitney Evans of member station. Vp 'EM reports. A December poll out of Christopher Newport University showed a slight majority of Virginians want to ban assault style. Weapons but gun. Rights groups say the ban on future sales would be unconstitutional and wouldn't do anything to reduce crime in the end. Four Democrats sided with Republicans voting to study the issue over the next year effectively. Killing the measure in a tweet the NRA is thanking its members and gun owners who fought to defeat the bill thousands from around the country amassed in Richmond last month to oppose it. Some Mississippi residents are breathing a sigh of relief after the Pearl River crested today below the level that was forecast but NPR's amy held reports. They're not yet in the clear. The waters of the Pearl River around the capital of Jackson are expected to recede over the coming days having crested around it below the anticipated thirty eight feet but floodwaters remain dangerously high and fast moving as a state or not in clear yet that's Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves as it is receding is going to be fast flowing water and we strongly discourage anyone from getting in or trying to drive through the water as the floodwaters move areas. Downstream of Jackson are at particular risk and more rain is in the forecast already. Hundreds of homes have been damaged amy health. Npr news this is NPR. Syrian President Bouchara Law saw is celebrating rapid military gains in the northwestern province of Aleppo that are consolidating his power. The advances have triggered an exodus of nearly nine hundred thousand Syrians the UN calls it a humanitarian crisis former united auto workers president. Oh wouldn't be. Bieber has died at the age of Ninety Michigan Radio Steve Carmody reports beeper steered the UAW through a wide range of challenges that reshape the industry. The son of a U. A. W. Member Bieber Roast. The unions ranks becoming president in nineteen eighty three and leading the UAW through a recession industry downsizing and expanding global competition later in life in an interview recorded by the UAW Bieber stressed the role of the UAW in pushing a national political agenda to strengthen unions. I have seen what has happened. Tampa middle class in America and the middle classes is our membership workers. We see happen because of a what what happened when we elected the wrong people off during his twelve years as President Owen bieber through the UAW support behind the free trade union movement in Eastern Europe and the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa for NPR news. I'm Steve Carmody Amazon founder. Jeff bezos pledging ten billion dollars of his own money to fight climate change. The world's richest man says he'll start giving grants to scientists and activists this summer. I'm Barbara Klein. Npr News in Washington.

president NPR NPR Npr UAW Owen bieber Barbara Klein NPR Lackland Air Force Base Steve Carmody Washington assault Bill Dr William Walters Pearl River Jackson Tampa US Jeff bezos Mississippi
NPR News: 02-17-2020 4PM ET

NPR News Now

04:39 min | 1 year ago

NPR News: 02-17-2020 4PM ET

"Live from NPR news in Washington. I'm Laurie London. The ongoing corona virus crisis has top Chinese lawmakers considering postponing the country's biggest political event of the year scheduled to take place the first week of March. Npr's Emily Chang reports from Beijing. The two sessions meeting as it is called is attended by more than five thousand delegates and their aides from all over the country. It's where top leaders review their achievements for the year and planned policies for the year ahead now. That meeting will likely be delayed. China's Legislative Standing Committee is convening to discuss. Its postponement pushing back. The two sessions would be an embarrassing admission that efforts to contain the outbreak under the direction of President Xi Jinping still some ways to go but congregating so many traveling delegates together might also pose a health risk. Emily Fang. Npr News Beijing Several Virginia. Democrats voted Republicans this morning to block a proposed assault weapons ban in the State Whitney Evans of member station. Vp 'EM in Richmond says gun control advocates are in disbelief. That members of the Party walked back on the issue. A December poll out of Christopher Newport University showed a slight majority of Virginians want to ban assault style. Weapons but gun. Rights groups say the ban on future sales would be unconstitutional and wouldn't do anything to reduce crime in the end. Four Democrats sided with Republicans voting to study the issue over the next year effectively. Killing the measure. It's a loss for governor Ralph Northam who had campaigned heavily for stricter gun policies as Democrats focus on Saturday's caucuses in Nevada. President trump holds campaign rallies this week in Arizona and Colorado NPR's Franko Donas reports. The visit includes raising campaign funds and supporting vulnerable Republican senators. President trump stops in Phoenix and colorado springs are largely seen as a thank you. Two Republican Senators Cory Gardner of Colorado and Martha mcsally of Arizona who both stood by trump during the Senate impeachment trial after his acquittal. Trump promised to help vulnerable republicans. Who were doing well in Arizona. It's going good. Yeah I think so. I saw a poll. That was very good for me. I think we have to make sure moth is GONNA do. I think month is GONNA do Martha. Mcsally and Cory Gardner are two of the most vulnerable. Republican senators and twenty twenty their reelection hopes largely hinge on trump's base turning out in November Franco or don't NPR news days and days of heavy rain of impact a wide area of the southern us with Mississippi and Tennessee being hit the hardest. Mississippi's Pearl River has reached its highest level in thirty seven years while a dramatic fire department video captured houses tumbling down a bluff over the Tennessee River with more rain in the forecast. Thousands of evacuated residents are being urged not to return home just yet this is. Npr General Motors announced. It will retire. It's iconic Australian brand as it continues to retreat from markets outside of the US. Rachel Buongiorno has more. The American car company has said it will end it. Sales Design and engineering operations in Australia and New Zealand. By twenty twenty one as the Holden brand is no longer profitable. This comes threes after it ceased manufacturing in Australia and also ends in one thousand nine year history of the Holden General Motors partnership lease trillion. Prime Minister criticized the move saying that these trillion tax payers have invested. Millions of dollars into this multinational company are only for the brand to wither away on their watch of the eight hundred locals. Currently employed by Holden around six hundred will be out of a job by June. This is the American companies. Lightest move to reduce its international presence while increasing its investments in electronic autonomous vehicles for NPR news. I'm Rachel Buongiorno. In Melbourne the National Basketball Association All Star Game. Mvp award was officially named for the late. Koby Bryant Sunday's game the All star weekend focused heavily on emotional tributes Jennifer Hudson wearing the Lakers deep purple performed a pre game tribute to Bryant and sang for all. We know an eighteen time. All Star Bryant won a record tying four are all star game. Mvp Awards. He was killed in a helicopter crash near Los Angeles last month. His thirteen year old daughter. Jonah and seven others also died in the crash this is NPR news.

President trump NPR Npr Koby Bryant Rachel Buongiorno Cory Gardner Beijing Arizona Npr General Motors Martha mcsally assault President Xi Jinping Mississippi Emily Chang Laurie London Colorado Washington Ralph Northam Emily Fang Mvp

Monday, November 2, 2020 - The Christian Science Monitor Daily

The Christian Science Monitor Daily

15:44 min | 5 months ago

Monday, November 2, 2020 - The Christian Science Monitor Daily

"Welcome to the monitor daily podcast. It's monday november second. Thanks for joining us. I'm meal you knew at long last. It's here the week. Americans finished casting their votes. And then wait. With the world to learn who will inhabit the oval office in january emotions are swirling plywood is going up on store fronts. The new york times remarked on an urgency never seen before axios news advised that we all do our part to minimize the drama historian. Simon shama explained what the riot is year. Nineteen sixty five could teach us and why he succumbs to optimism for monitor journalists. It's been a long stretch of shoe leather reporting and navigating breathtaking array of perspectives and also recording those lighter moments that happily punctuate the seriousness. Peter greer who's covered politics for decades says. He realized things were truly different this year when in maine he saw boat parade on land. A large pickup was towing a commercial lobster boat. Fine very large trump flag linda feldman and other campaign veteran enjoyed learning a little about colombian folk music during a miami car caravan for joe biden noah robertson new to the political game recalls taking notes on his phone at a press conference on a text pumped up on his screen. I think i'm watching the back of your head on tv. His mother wrote proudly for story hinckley grocery store parking lots urban and rural fancy and modest. Tell an important story. The many voter she buttonholed in the may different policies but in the end there's one thing they have in common. She says they want good jobs to feel safe. A promising future for their children now stories our first story the rise of toxic partisanship has made political combat. The united states much fiercer with both parties at risk of losing faith in the fairness of the country's political rules but tumultuous periods can open the door for national reform efforts as happened after watergate both supporters and critics of president. Donald trump agree. He's been a norm busting president. His supporters often say he was elected in two thousand sixteen to shake up the status quo complaints about the threat. He poses to the existing order are simply liberal pro clutching in this view but the past four years have damaged not just political norms but the underlying values they represent colorado of opponents forbearance in the use of power belief in the power of voting. It's these values that really need defending say experts democratic rise and decline if they decay too much the parties may think the game of democracy is in fact no longworth play and become locked in a downward spiral of mutually abusive husband all tactics. The good news is that this is far from four or eight after all the ability to change. Incorrect course is fundamental to democracy says jerry berman professor of political science at barnard college in the short run professor. Berman says she's worried about the two thousand twenty and the possibility of a crisis instigated by fraud charges in court intervention but for the long run. She's more hopeful. I'm an optimist about democracies ability to shift course in remedy mistakes. she says. This story was reported by peter. Greer for the monitor. What or who can best. Tell the story of america's political polarization if you're pointing to washington's halls of power. You might wanna reconsider. If you were to reduce the past thirty years of american election stunt to a single word it might well be one. You'd never think of sorting the dominant trend. In american politics during that time has been polarization. But that word alone doesn't capture. What's going on. America is not just becoming more liberal more conservative. It is sorting into two distinct identities based on partisan ideology. Consider the nineteen sixties for instance. America went through dramatic social change but congress was still able to cooperate and pass legislation. Why one big reason is that back then. There were liberal. Republicans and conservative democrats both tended to pull their parties toward the center which is where legislation and compromise was born today that diversity within parties is gone. American voters are increasingly defining themselves by their partisan identity which now often correlates with everything from religion to race to age to education for example the democratic party is becoming steadily less religious more racially diverse younger and better educated. The republican party is moving in precisely the opposite direction the result is to clear camps one liberal and one conservative with almost nothing in between the trend is even more pronounced among the most politically active voters adding to the growing pull toward the extremes that puts a different light on these elections. Where record ninety four million. Americans have already voted. How can an increasingly sorted republic find the common ground to govern. Voters will get their say tomorrow. The story was reported by mark seven field for the monitor. In today's issues you can find our graphics breaking down the issue of police station. Americans would say the corona virus has benefited this election season but in jordan pandemic restrictions have played the role of equalizer opening the door to new candidates and perhaps more democracy as jordanian prepared to vote for parliament next week. Social restrictions imposed by the pandemic are acting as a catalyst shaking up an electoral culture built on blood ties. Vote-buying and tribal peer pressure. In the past wealthy tribal sheikhs businessmen would erect tents hosting hundreds of relatives neighbors and undecided voters for banquets that offered sweets coffee and promises of jobs but the pandemic has pushed jordanian politics in politicking out of the tents and into the world of online human engagement. I am googling candidates backgrounds in qualifications before the facebook rally starts says call. It sowed a community organizer as he squinted a smartphone. Times change so must we more broadly. The restrictions are an equalizer allowing candidates with new platforms but fewer resources to enter the fray. a record. Three hundred and sixty four female candidates are running up forty four percent from two thousand sixteen as are thirty percent more candidates under the age of forty unlike the rest of the world elections in jordan where a social event rather than political says jihad alma money spokesman for jordan's independent commission. Now with the socializing taken away. Candidates are faced with the fact that you have to have a political program to the story was reported by taylor. Look in caracas. Sheila jordan for the monitor are all politics truly local we visited virginia's once reliably republican stiff district. Where the race is testing. The limits of that old adage an eighteen of the last twenty years. Virginia's fifth congressional district has elected a republican representative in two thousand sixteen at voted for president. Donald trump by eleven percentage points this year. The congressional race here is rated one of the most competitive in the country bob good. The republican candidate is a former county official fundraiser at liberty university who describes himself as a bright red biblical conservative in the primary. He defeated a one term. Gop incumbent criticized for officiating at a same sex wedding. The democrat cameron webb is a physician and director of health policy inequity at the university of virginia school of medicine he is styled his candidacy as one of unity and healing and often promises return to bipartisanship whether democrats can expand their majority in the us. House tuesday could well depend on races like this one and whether republicans vote whole party. Ballot says quinton kit an expert on virginia politics christopher newport university. The idea that we're talking about a district like the fifth as potentially shifting from our two d. I think gives you a sense of how widespread the reaction to trump has penetrated. This story was reported. By noah robertson and sperry virginia for the monitor the zimbabweans. You'll meet in. This story felt a surge of hope and twenty seventeen. As the birth of new family members coincided with the resignation of a hard-line president we checked in recently to see how things look now eliya simbi and merrill mood sakani were both born in the same day in november two thousand seventeen the day that zimbabwe finally cast off its longtime leader robert mugabe. His downfall raised hopes of political and economic renewal under his successor president. Emmerson mnangagwa's today. The toddlers families are struggling to stay afloat amid the pandemic their livelihoods up ended by covid. Nineteen controls in an economic crash in july demonstrations broke out over corruption leading to a crackdown by authorities. That critics compared to mr mugabe's rule for angeles cindy whose daughter-in-law gave birth to a three years ago the family's economic struggles aren't her only problem in october. The city or her to demolish the rooms that they had added to their brick house to accommodate their growing family. She's unsure how she can fight the order. This house is mine. I have all the papers but now they want to break it down. Where am i supposed to go. She asks it's another reminder of how precarious life can be in zimbabwe. And how far. It seems to be from delivering on the promises of two thousand seventeen. When the ousting of mr mugabe drew worldwide attention. The story was reported by tendai marina in harare zimbabwe for the monitor as for months first executive director of racial equity. Sasana davis is conducting a comprehensive review of state government. She says she starting with something radically simple listening in the days. Following george floyd killing. The nation found itself in deep reflection and discussion on racial justice. Conversation commentary and social media. Posts on the topic reached a crescendo. In the weeks following the incident but in vermont amid all the discussions on race. So davis is focused. On listening i try to listen. Non-judgmental miss davis says not interested dwelling on a person's current or past opinions. I'd rather help them get to a higher level of inquiry action instead. That is a spirit. Miss davis brought to vermont. In the summer of two thousand nineteen when she embarked on this herculean task to identifies stomach racism and address inequities in this new england state which is ninety four percent white. Ms davis has helped to coordinate. The translation and dissemination of public health information assisted essential workers seeking help and address gaps in data collection. Lawmakers have also passed several policing related bills this year including one banning chokeholds the most progress being made however says. Miss davis is in one of the more difficult initial steps having the conversation and having it with sincerity. The story was reported by gareth henderson. For the monitor to now commentary on the us. Election from the monitor's editorial org almost every. Us presidential election is historic but the twenty twenty. One is unique in a special way. Both major candidates or foreign policy doves each promises to end overseas wars push allies to pay more for their defense and be skeptical of free trade pacts. In other words three decades after the united states became the world's sole superpower an election may see a choose to shed global power. This election will thus reshape global leadership away from the us and poured other nations. Many of them are already preparing for the tasks more than any other place. Europe has recognized the challenge as the us alters its role we in europe and especially in germany need to take more responsibility german chancellor. Angela merkel told the financial times. Here's why this global shift is so important even if the. Us partially withdraws even more after the election. The drive reflect universal values in global governance will continue like a superpower the ideals that the us helped plant over the past century are now leading as much as any country or person pan. That's a wrap for the news. You can find the full length. Persons of these stories in today's issue or at cs monitor dot com slash daily. And thank you for starting your week with us tomorrow. You can meet the to janet's the story written by christie's case bryant of college friends whose politics diverged widely over the decades yet their bonds are strong even though they often vehemently disagree. I hope you'll check it out. Today's christian science spiritual perspective column shares. How in political kinds such as these. It's worth taking a deeper look at. What constitutes the true soul of a nation our role and bringing it to light and what that means for peace and progress adapted from an article written some time ago. This piece feels as relevant today as ever. You can find the column in today's issue or a cs monitor dot com slash daily. We want to give a quick thing store staff including today's audio production team. Jeff surgeon and rebecca osceola. This podcast is produced by the christian. Science monitor copyright twenty twenty.

noah robertson Simon shama Peter greer linda feldman us jerry berman Donald trump mr mugabe jordan forty four percent thirty percent oval office jihad alma Sheila jordan barnard college longworth joe biden republican party Virginia cameron webb
A New Election Forecasting Model for 2020

Trumpcast

37:49 min | 1 year ago

A New Election Forecasting Model for 2020

"President trump to talk about the forgotten man and woman well in this budget. He's forgotten about the very people. He promised to help in his State of the Union Union. Last week like it's supposed to be a statement of our values once again. This president is demonstrating. How little devalue the kids and well being a hard working American families love me say tonight that this victory here is the beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Hello and welcome to trump cast in Virginia. And you have Fernan so Roger Stone that daffy filthy trickster and longtime chief of tortures lobby. WHO's not anywhere near as amusing as he thinks? He is was facing sentencing sentencing for obstructing Congress and witness tampering. It was bad. He's the last convict in the Russia. Investigation by special counsel Robert Muller Stones Forever Drug Somebody You may remember is the one with whom he cooked up. No end of murderous drug deals. That was Paul Manafort. Manafort is of course in prison and it was the fondest hope of all Americans Americans who love justice that stone woodland squarely in the clink to for a long time but true. The trump administration's one clear policy policy objective the obstruction of justice. Wherever justice might rear its head? Bill Bar in Maine. Justice jumped on the sentencing guidelines of seven to nine years those guidelines given by other federal prosecutors and has taken the What do they call it? The unusual step the dickhead step of smacking down those prosecutors to to say the well twenty years can be okay for someone. Doing Bong hits seven to nine years for an enemy of the nation who hooked up something with wikileaks is far too much. Pore Stone Bar is of course the grand master of the inset video game world of obstruction craft who has been playing for one million hours straight eight and his goggle eyed from how much obstruction. He's racked up bar entered the leaderboard by first garbling and blocking the mullahs report itself. which he lied about so absurdly? Hardly that even Muller said he'd misrepresented the work still bar was on obstruction tilt and framed the report to trump bites as somehow exonerating was not exonerating Donna rating and went back to flagging for trump every day and making more room for trump's crime and colluding so now naturally he's stepping in to make sure poor Roger Stone Joan trump's longtime buddy stone of the tortures lobby stone of Stone Manafort. That black had bad actor facing the dictionary next to the words. Bad actor bad actor Roger Stone. He gets shown some leniency because well stone is a truly horrible criminal bar lives to roll out the red carpet to all the truly horrible criminals aminals as long as they're trump cultists like he is seeing bar bigfoot in for stone today by the way made me feel some sick grief. That's different from workaday day trump time sorrows and thought of Edward Grey the English Foreign Minister See him trying to dignify what I felt here. I thought of gray seeming to give up when reason reason and diplomacy didn't work with the Russians are and the German Kaiser and all the blood thirsty people who are just intent on doing the most wrong most devastating most absurd asserted most ill-intentioned thing that is starting world war. One Gray tried hard but right on the eve of the. UK's entrance into the war he said the lamps are going out all all over Europe we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime and if stone gets a slap on the wrist because of bars interference and his desire to put one more far-right Creighton above the law. Man At least five more lights are going to go out in this formerly great nation. Okay my guest today is going to think all this sad sad talk is unproductive for her. The intent is to beat trump and sad. Talk doesn't beat anyone she does. On the other hand like Apocalyptic Talk Doc angry talk scary talk and talk like gets people to the polls ritual. Bitta coffer is assistant director of the waste and Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Virginia where she teaches classes on political behaviour elections and political analysis. But the big deal is she is invented an election forecasting costing model that predicted the twenty eighteen midterms five months before election day far ahead of any other forecasting methods. She's the it girl. Now of political forecasting even though that male dominated field has tried to sideline her. She's immensely immensely interesting and she's got a fascinating book about two thousand sixteen different from all the other books about two thousand sixteen called the unprecedented 2016 presidential election. Rachel hello and welcome to trump cast. Well thank you so so much for having me you are my ideal guest because you have been calling something right for a long time and your voice has not been heard word and I want you to tell sort of I the Meta story of how you came to do what you do. Election prognostications reading the electorate making in some predictions I about two thousand eighteen and then about twenty twenty on a big scale. How you came to do that and then also how it is that I'm only now hearing your name? Now I mean it's it's funny right like I totally never meant to be an election. An forecaster person. Yeah yeah I also like set Out To achieve exactly. What's happening to me right now? Amazing I was a single mom was twenty four. It was two thousand four. The Iraq Iraq war was going on bushes was becoming so unpopular and I was a dead end at administrative job that was like basically the working class wage. It was a really bad job when I was like you know go to college now. I can get financial aid so I did and I realized you could study political science as a major and then I discovered Rachel Maddow. And I'll say oh she has a PhD in well one thing to do you know it took years at like like twelve years because I had to go get a undergraduate degree and then I had to go get a PhD but rather than fall in lockstep with your colleagues you uh-huh developed. I mean he who she'll be unnamed. Nate silver is over here on one side of things coming up with highly technical ways of forecasting or casting elections. You have a whole different approach. What is this? It's not an algorithm. It's almost like an epic narrative you have in your head that helped you to predict twenty twenty eighteen so well to what is it. Yeah actually that's really true right because what I do is quantitative. It's not what Dave Wasserman or cook. Political report does which is basically handicapped on no characteristics of a race. I'm quantitative but I'm not sober. I'm not an algorithm developed a probability model all and silver. What he does the of the type of thing that he does? It's the best out there right but what I'm doing is completely different and you're right. I've never heard anyone and describe it that way but I really do like it because what it's doing is it's really. Siri Rich. Like the model is kind of like an afterthought like the actual predictions does that come out of it and the statistical element of his all just byproduct. Because the meat of what I'm doing is the theory. It's this idea That in the polarized era that we're in our election analysis should probably catch up to the idea that even though partisanship has been who is really important. It's now to the point where people will send someone like Roy Moore Junior Really credibly accused child molester to the US Senate because he's got are behind his name in. The State of Alabama is heavily are or Donald Trump. Brian this conversation all week about Bernie Sanders. There's and whether in all God what a disaster of Sanders wins the nomination. He's certainly not the path of Least Resistance for Democrats. I'll make that clear I'm not a squad forecaster cage But here's the thing wake. Donald trump is sitting in the White House. He breaks literally every rule of the chuck. Todd theory of the electorate. I mean who should not be the president. He you shouldn't have been able to win the Republican nomination and even though that's happened none of the analysts have acepted or moved on to the fact that the hell clearly something has changed and what is possible because of polarization. So you know that's really the meat of my research is is it's that theoretical it. I remember that Scott Adams he said when trump won he punched a hole through reality and that is too aggressive and kind of silly and Scott Adams as a trump so take that all with a grain of salt but the idea that something in the language in our history in our political science was so disrupted by his victory and to watch people like chuck. Todd like some in the mainstream media like other political scientists. Somehow try I to adjust the model to take all this in rather than seeing this as a paradigm shift as that really as we used to describe it is fractured and the old metrics and measurements may not work anymore. We may be in. You know for whatever reason there are times when everything changes yes and if you don't admit that you're in a paradigm shift if you hang on you're in trouble no doubt I mean that's basically it and early what's radical. Is that so you know what I'm arguing is. We don't just have one hundred. persuadable Independence Change Their Preferences Between Twenty Sixteen and Twenty twelve l. and for Obama and then trump you also have one hundred independence voted in twenty twelve and then didn't show up in two thousand sixteen and we're not talking about those the people but those people are just as important to election outcomes as the other people that did show up so it's really actually is radical as it is. It's really simple right. Yeah you know this new analysis that maybe putting out which will finally give people visual like thing that they can hold hold onto NC for two thousand eighteen. It will look at these house districts and show them the way that these district's flipper not because moderate Republicans joined hands hands with Democrats and had this crew by moment because Democrats managed to serve up appetizing candidates and they focused purely on healthcare and it was enough enough to not offend these voters and they decided to switch teams and jump on the other side. The entire composition of these district's switch train from turnout surges. And that's what made them flip and and that changes everything because we're not talking about a fixed pool of voters with preferences references. We're talking about a pool that's fluid and it means. The fluidity of that pool is responding to the same forces that the partisan part of the pool is responding spawning too. And that I mean that's just a super big change and I guess is threatening to a lot of people. I am a just crap political scientists in fact anything a science. Hi It's attached to it where it has too much precision required. I am bowed out so some of these are kind of kindergarten questions. But what does it take when people stay home. What is the usual reasoning or non reasoning when people stay home and don't vote so the main thing that I argue is comfort Tang? I'm not I'm not ashamed to be wrong or wrong. Admit it. I don't know if that's a man thing that you can't do but I will. We're wrong. Admit it yet at so in twenty eighteen when I put out my initial forecast I said this is what I expect. I expect. We're GONNA see US huge turnout surge for Democrats and then like Democrats did when Obama was an office as they control the whole government. Democrats pulled back their participation and just was like we're fat and happy now so I kind of expected Republicans. We're going to do that. And that was has been oil. Lau maybe Democrats to hold onto a couple of those crucial realigning states that are moving to long term to the Republican Party and had moved moved substantially since the Democrat. I won their seat Missouri. INDIANA had become much more Republican. Fernley since mccaskill and Donnelly had one though seeds but I thought you basically catch the Republican part of the electorate sleeping and Democrat surge lot. You could probably thread the needle in those states You can't win Tennessee Hennessy. For sure or you can't win Kentucky. It's not likely anyway but Texas and Georgia it may be a bit premature. But they're going to be competitive desk deft competitive and that was a pretty controversial claim in July of twenty eighteen but I expected a turnout decline of Republicans and ultimately what. I'm going to be showing in this analysis. That's coming out in. The New Republic is that that didn't happen. Unlike Democrats Republican turnout does not decline in. They don't get comfortable and I argue that the reason why is because the Republican Party and especially the Republican Party under trump each artificially inflates negative partisanship for their electorate and keeps them uncomfortable like the messaging all the time. Is You know the fate of the free world world hinges on you voting. If you don't vote everything's GonNa fall apart yet. GONES THEY'RE GONNA kill babies. You better show up right. The Democratic messaging is like. Oh if you don't show up to vote they're going to get rid of the pre existing clause of section eighteen lean on clause nine of of law bill and yes yes. Tall white were caused voter. Who has been you know working minimum wage jobs like that's just not a compelling message right? My point is what what happened in eighteen. And I'M GONNA show this in this analysis. Is The Surgery Democrats huge proportionally much larger. It had a lot larger grow because because it was so low before but not only. Does Republican turnout. Not Decline. It goes up. goes up almost every district of of those competitive districts at I analyzed actually Republicans still proportionally outperformed Democrats on turnout. Even though they don't have a weave on their back. I've been saying periodically that I think. Republicans and in particular conservatives have been culturally underserved for a longtime so that they've had you know nothing while lots of people in urban centers including in the Midwest subscribe to Netflix and watch the extremely compelling dramas Amazon television now turns out there's really only Duck Dynasty and some other reality shows and Fox Fox which is you know a relentless melodrama. There's nothing subtle about it and there was. They had more sex and death. At some point I was thinking. Wow that you know the people who get into Pizza Gate and Kuan they just need this hyperstimulation of sex and death and then I looked at all the British detective shows. I watch and there's always some like child. L. Molesting sex whatever but it's in the context of fiction with tools to understand it and it doesn't make you go out get a gun and go to the pizza parlor earlier it you know you understand it as fiction than you move on everybody needs allegories about love sex and death and if Fox News is you're only one and and the only response to that hyper arousal is go and vote. Vote vote voters the end of the world. Then that's a message. That's like screaming in your head Adler son of Sam all the time. The way you spell it out. It seems exactly right. Now that said Democrats have been at such a loss to understand trump's trump's presidency that they really have an I have signed onto something that's been an insult hurled at me many times but I now believe that trump derangement syndrome exists and the Democrats. Now feel existential terrified of trump's reelection or rarely right. Yeah yes that's the meet of my model. Well that's the blood that runs through the skeleton of it. Okay I love that now. Forget about approval ratings. There's never been a more despised. President I think in American history. Oh Gosh yes. Yes so usually. A bell shaped curve is yet has for your listeners purposes though you know you have a day people's height people's People's way people's test scores people not anymore in college but whatever people's test scores People's Iq you have data in the natural world tends to come in in. What would be a bell shape where there's many observations that are average and very few as you go out to the extremes and so it makes a nice bell shaped curve and so like that's that's how presidential approval had always been Most strongly some supportive or somewhat supported or somewhat opposed the president and then there were a few people that strongly hated him or strongly loft him as we move into the polarized era that bell shaped stores to distort and instead of the metal being highly populated the extremes become more populated where people were like. Oh I strongly eight Clinton. I strongly hate Restaurant we like him and same for Bush rush but will we get an Obama. Obama starts to get really intense. Because not because Obama's polarizing okay. Let me be clear about that Fox. Just a guy he. I mean as far as these things go. He's actually in terms of his temperament fairly benign. He's he's a very benign. Temperamental President Reagan also. Very benign temperamental. President debris reaction to Obama is what polarized and it's a product of the time period. That Obama is serving in but when we look at trump I mean it really is a cute. The two extremes are the have almost all the observations so people strongly hate trump or strongly like him and very very few. I'm talking ten percent. Say they somewhat light him or somewhat he'd uh-huh that's weird. Yeah and he's also running as you know. Basically the most hated president to run for reelection since Jimmy Carter. We add Joe Walsh on this show last week and he was saying people were getting matter and matter. Well Obama was president. You know he was watching the red states in his own. Constituency has republican then and and they were getting better and I just kept thinking why. What made it so mad? There wasn't Weimar inflation. There wasn't a dust bowl. Aw there wasn't like a whole lot of way to get mad at Obama unless he had been framed as the evil moustachioed you know. End Times Homage Arben Jer. Whatever on Fox News so I think you're right to say it's not the figures that are polarizing so much as trump except for trump trump is is definitely early polarizing? Right that's right. Yeah Yeah Not Obama. I mean Bush. You can make an argument for with the war but Obama's presidency is eight years of basically you know. There's nothing notable that happens. I don't remember the contempt. I mean look. Hillary Clinton was a extremely popular senator in New York. And listen well respected Secretary of state and had gotten through Benghazi with flying colors then all of a sudden we were supposed to imagine that she was unlikable and controversial and polarizing assitant. You guys realized that about like the differs between Republicans and Democrats when it comes to electioneering the Republicans are playing chess. Like High I level you know beat the best players in the world chasse and the Democrats can't even win connect four. You know. Yeah it did with Clinton was all strategic for TJ. Hey you know we've got the power of Investigation we've got this catalyst with Benghazi. You know. They politicized the hell out of an event that should never ever had been politicized. There was no reason to cast her. In a white of of malfeasance with Benghazi certainly was not an accident. It was all done intentionally. And that's where we're trump got the idea to do with Biden. I mean this is what you know. This is one of their new techniques on. It's you know it's brilliant. He ended evil. It's a terrible thing for democracy But the Republicans play for keeps and they and they understand that they are playing a game for keeps they they and I and made a decision in two thousand thirteen to go one way or the other the other way you know that team lost and now they have break it you know the Turbie brigadier regular by it. Yeah they've bought it and the like that you know those. CD's that came out with the plans for the census gerrymandering like they understand. Stay on that. They are playing for keeps like. I don't get why the Democrats are so incapable of understanding that like they don't WanNa be in a were fine. I don't want to be in a war. I always tell people I'm A. I'm a moderate. Gee I work in. A moderate maintain a moderate girl living an ideologues world for. Yeah but it doesn't matter if you want to be in this war because the Republicans are waging it against you anyway so you have no choice right and they are playing late to win it. I am maybe alone. I'm a voice alone in the wilderness on this one particular point which is in the chest connect for model it seems to me more like Republicans are dealing in you know maybe speed and opiates where Democrats want wine. I get that Republicans. These are getting a lot of quick bangs and highs and lows but according to lots of Republicans we've had on the show. They seem to be salting the earth for their your own party. Yes yes. That's exactly right right. So it's like I see that they're getting these short-term highs and lows but you know if you listen to Adam Schiff and everyone today is saying where you know. Why aren't given this Roger Stone's sentencing issue and whatever else where are the democratic protests? What are they doing? What are Congressional House? Democrats doing doing and you know I was listening. Schiff again last night thinking he really does believe and he could end up wrong that he's playing the long game that the truth must prevail. We have no other choice but to think that that's possible and so the idea of going all in to whatever dirty tricks would constitute you'd playing chess colluding with angle merckel. Whatever it takes? I mean. He's not thinking that way because not because he's just so much better than everyone else but because he thinks that short term win would have long term consequences for his party not to mention for Truth and justice. Oh I mean some of that right yes I think that's certainly at a lot of though I think has just laid night. Here's the thing. The impeachment trial. I definitely think Democrats needed to invoke the articles articles of impeachment against trump on Ukraine. It was an absolute must. Have I mean what. Imagine an alternative scenario in which all of that stuff happened. All that evidence and the Democrats sat there inept like wow we just were. We're not GONNA do anything I mean. The base of the already would have been completely deflated going into the election and of course by wouldn't they be what's the point of putting people into office if they're so afraid to use powered hold Hewlett obviously a massive violation of the presidency So you know going. into the process of impeachment was at a mosque Halford impressed but are also was always the case you said they were going to acquit him in the Senate and that they were never going to vote to include witnesses or do anything else. That was anything close to a fair. You're impartial nineteen seventies watergate-style. Try and I was shocked when I began to realize that. Like Mark Warner and Adam Schiff like were just pretending on television that they expected Republicans to behave ethically like they actually believed it right because that should on TV. But it's quite another to believe it and I was really really really surprised to find out. How many of these? He's you know congressional Democrats like as you just said genuinely believe the end of the day that truth would have to prevail that they just went there and presented the evidence that the Republicans would have to do the right thing and and and that tells me that like there is just something about the liberal ideological perspective of human nature which would says humans are good and that people will do the right thing and that is not not well suited for what what is happening right now in the political realm or A. I think you're right about that. I mean I think that they're you know it may be measured measured reasoned discourse or even the appeal to our better. Angels is lost in the current kind of spite Cesspool that we find ourselves in but if what's crucial for Democrats is that they inspire turn out and they what does it disturb the comfortable so make it very clear. The cat we cannot Democrats or Democrat leaning independents. Who might be inclined to stay home cannot afford and unless on pain of losing American Ideals Truth Justice the possibility of peace and prosperity cannot sit out the election and he does has a nice job bringing himself at the brink of tears like he does and also shaming the Republicans so much for failing to do their duty so much that you almost feel like well if you were kind of go along get along guy that sort of is like? I'm not going to get into the weeds on this impeachment thing because politicians are all the same mm-hmm but if Adam shifts impeach trial had any effect on people's thinking about their comfort on in November. It might have been to say. Oh I I don't WanNa be a go along. Get along person anymore. I'd rather be Mitt Romney today like I said I think the impeachment trial had to happen. 'cause you add to show people that we're GONNA do something with power and you know right now. The Democrats are in this five stages of grief during sadness and despair. But it's actually anger will come back right and it won't take that long because trump always is going to do something horrible like God. Mike Muller when I met with never never trump right after. Yeah Muller's ill. He got away with the Russian stuff and I said now that he's gotten away with this he's GonNa do something much much worse than as I was speaking. He was literally doing the Ukraine crank. So imagine now when he's got completely knows he's a hundred percent immune from law. He's going to do something terrible. He's got no self control so anger anger. We'll come back and and you know people mystified me because they thought well trump gets acquitted. Isn't that way to help him. And I'm like why would it help him because the winning side isn't the one that gets pissed off right. Yeah well serves from fights that get pissed off but it is conditioned on. This doesn't mean this is what my point is. You're absolutely right. The things that the Republican like Joe Walsh understands. He played a role he has. His voters went nuts but he understands stands a he also drove his voters nuts. At least he has moments of clarity exchanges. I've had with him on twitter. You know I'm working on a book called God. Fear Factory how America lost its mind and it's about fear. Capitalism basically the Fox and media empires and all of these different for entities. And how they make money by driving people nuts and that goes through the campaign to and so. There's a lot of financial incentive for people to produce off off that messes with the voter psychologically and the Republican Party literally did things to their electorate. That drove it so nuts. They lost control. Control of it. Like Frankenstein and then the electorate ate it and now. The founders of Republican Party have been excised out of their own party's only founders of intellectual conservatism by larger. All exiles of the Party. Now they're the last remains of never trump and the party areas now has had a war that's concluded it is now ruled by an entirely new ruling class so when I say that Democrats need to campaign warlike Republicans I do mean it. I think they need to appeal to stakes Democrats. I think they naturally don't think that they should go out and make the election or referendum on trump and make the stakes as you just described them. Hey Electorate Democrats independent leaning people on the left. If you do not vote. The American ideal will be forever. Lost like we are going to lose. We're GONNA crash into an authoritarian dictatorship if you don't get off your ass and vote. That's the message. That Rick Wilson and I tell Democrats. They should burn on Democrats as far as I can tell think that they I should run on issues. Yeah so there's a ton of ways to improve how Democrats ham pain and make their messaging more stakes oriented oriental to improve their turnout deficiencies without going the full monty and driving your electorate nuts. Yeah I'm with you and rick I mean they absolutely. It seems seems like there's so many metaphors and models for this but I don't know if you saw but Obama. This very recently reported that back in two thousand sixteen Obama said Tim. Kaine Hillary Clinton's running mate Please don't something like please. Don't be a purist now. Don't stand on ceremony because he was getting very pious about something Because kids it's time to defeat a fascist and I think that fascism is a kitchen table issues you know. Democrats are this is is the most frustrating part for them like they. I don't know how they can do this because they're so I think they're so smart. They become stupid right. Consult any person. That's an expert in human behavior gave her and they're going to tell you the last way to judge. Human behavior are in the worst way any way to ask people. How do you think and feel and believe leave because people have kinds of misperceptions about that right so like voters will ask the the Democrats as people should we make this issue of referendum on trump and the voters? No I want it to be about issues. Of course. They say that they don't want to think of themselves. As base instinct emotive motive negative people just want to focus on this referendum fact that that is not how people work so the worst part about Democrats ads as they have all these misperceptions about voters they construct their campaign efforts based on like a Bethel logical understanding of how Americans vote so. I have a Republican in my family. My extended family who. I've mentioned him on the show before but he's always voted Republican and he while well. I think it's not clear why he voted for road. In case at your something in two thousand sixteen He does watch Fox News and periodically say say things he's heard very certainly distrust the liberal lead and the media and has all the right antipathies that get kindled and right wing media and the last time I tried. I just talked to him a little bit about anger in red counties and what where that comes from. He said he was tired of being angry and that he wasn't watching Fox News anymore. He was watching the hallmark channel. And you know there's something where I think your comfort word is right on so sometimes you can. How can I be more comfortable? Well maybe if there's a chicken in every pot or I had a higher paying job with more vacation or maybe if I had better healthcare thank you get my prescription pills covered but one thing thing that is really compromising our comfort right now is the like sepsis and lyme disease in our in our visual and auditory field all the time when we're getting yelled at and we're getting getting punched in the face by a president that's keeps like jerking us around and I think that people will vote to get out of that pain either. They're him saying I'm just you know Republican but I could've would've been trump but I'm either staying home or other times. I've heard him say he'd right and Bloomberg or Democrats saying usually take these elections seriously but make the pain stop. Yeah well I say a big like way to appeal to the middle all of the electorate which is not. It's not the way. The political article is written. I didn't write the headline. All right. it's the design me provocative and get people to pay attention to Other are some persuadable swing voters out there and we'll get away to to talk to those people people because they aren't particularly engaged in politics or certainly not. How Chuck Todd Additions Them Reading The New York Times and you know engaged in Debating all these issues and you know up each campaign and what have you is to just tell them they can have Monday night football back you know uninterrupted and unpolluted colluded if they get rid of trump right right. Yeah a big chunk of the country that would find that attractive right yeah. There's an element of torture going on here and like we all just want a cracker and a glass of water. You know we've been like they've kept US Open with our eyes propped open. I mean and I I would say well. That's just in the media are for you in academia cady meow or a think tank. But that's what I'm hearing at least in my very informal polls from friends in Indiana in Utah just to kind of make it stop. Can we go back to normal feeling and Italy interesting. See what normal looks like now for you and we're teeing this up but the very good news. In the first place I came across the politico profile vile starts. What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong? And then say to you as an oracle that you say well what do you say about twenty twenty money and what do you think today about twenty twenty. Who's going to win? WHO's going to be next? I'll have a forecast that you can view online. It's been out since July first of twenty nineteen eighteen. So it's not like nate silver type forecast it doesn't have polls. It's based on demographics based on college education yet which it's a AH predictor the I selected before the twenty eighteen election and you that was gonna be a giant a spike in the realignment that was already in progress with college educated educated whites moving away from the Republicans and White Working Class voters moving towards the Republicans long-term coalition realignment had nothing to do with Hillary Clinton Clinton in other words. Yeah so anyway. My model looks at basically identifies all the places where Democrats have population and Um from where they could in a turnout. syringe perform really well. And that's why Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania. The Blue Wall still are very fairly territory Tori for Democrats. We saw that in twenty eighteen. When Pennsylvania and Michigan were not even competitive for Republicans the Senate level they couldn't even compete for those Senate Senate seats so it's very likely to me that those seats are going to be way off the table for them The two states in the Electoral College Wisconsin is going to be a tougher nut. It's a lot more competitive. For Republicans in Wisconsin but I still think Democrats have an edge there In the Democrats are going to have a nominee and the party's GONNA rally rally around that nominee. That's the only factor that I don't really know right now I do think a little bit of the nominee Matters in terms of. Is there a person of color her on the ticket somewhere. So I forgive you that you must have in a modern democratic coalition representation of a person of color or Latino Latino and African American somebody that recognizes how diverse coalition as much more concerned with ethnic and racial diversity than I idealogical fact. Yes so that forecast is available. It has four swing states on top of that That it's already passed that two hundred seventy electoral college vote for Democrats. So so those swing states are kind of Serb us. Democrats and that's Iowa North Carolina Florida and Arizona. Rachel Bitta coffer is assistant director of the Think Tank Bank at Christopher Newport University where she teaches classes on political behaviour elections and political analysis she is also the author of the Unprecedented Twenty Sixteen presidential election. Thank you so much for being here. Rachel your that's it for today's show. What do you think come join us on? The micro micro blogging platform to end on micro blogging platforms. That's twitter. I'm ED page. Eighty eight this show is at real trump cast and then go over to slate dot com slash trump cast plus and just become slate plus member. Today's your day. Plus never get all of slates podcasts AD free and that makes a difference. It's also only only thirty five dollars for the first year you get tons of digital swag and invites things and best of all. You'll be supporting our work to go to sleep. Dot Com slash trump cast asked less our show today was produced by Melissa Kaplan and engineered by merit. jakup I'm Virginia Heffernan. Thanks for listening to trump cast.

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