18 Burst results for "Chris Lowe"
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"For their support. So normally I'm supposed to go claims and forget about it. You're supposed to do that. Yeah, I'm supposed to do that. The world is going to stop this afternoon because what you do when the stars are aligned is you get a really smart guy like I think Berkeley distinction and LSE and Parchman from Stanford in economics who did legit research like Clarida and with Thomas Lobbock came up with some thinking that is iconic in part of our thinking and where the reporter across the table happens to be our chief R starred Michael correspondent McKee today 330 in discussion and the economic world will stop for an intelligent conversation with John Williams of the New York Fed. Let's start with where our start came from before Lubbock Williams was there a discussion of our start? Well there's always been a discussion of the natural interest rate of which you go back to Wixell and the Austrians for that but there will be canoes it's always it's always impossible to always been impossible to determine where it actually is what is the rate of interest that either holds back growth nor encourages it Williams and the late Tom Lubbock put together together mathematical a model to try to estimate it in relatively real time and so right that is what they are for the camera frame this is two point zero percent they're worried about keeping rates anchored everybody agrees with that can it be two point five can it be two X point can it be an atom posing three percent what Blanchard did with Stiglitz at IMF four the great financial crisis for our listeners what's the so what of your conversation today and where our start should land as long as we talk about the our star so what it's it's a little bit uh... unimportant in this sense uh... you still can't be sure that what their mathematical estimate of our start is and what we're looking at is an estimate of where the economy will be in a year or so so it it's hard to say that any particular estimate makes a lot of difference but it is what they think of as a guide we're trying to to get what that would be even if we don't know what it is so if you got john williams thinking as he does that uh... or at least his research showing that we can get back down to a neutral rate closer to two percent then you can sort of divine what his policies would be if somebody thinks that it's going to be three percent that they might not be as uh... firm in terms of monetary policies so in another life maybe a week ago somebody asked might have you ask him whether he's going to high grades in september and say i don't know and ask him whether he's going to do it in november and uh... who cares right now but now people are wondering is he going to double down on the idea of rate cuts next year as a sort of technical response to disinflation i will ask excuse all me right but i i think where you uh... where you have the fed right now is uh... they see what the markets are pricing the idea that rates will come down and in general what participants market are saying is they think they'll be adjusting rates in reaction to real rates as inflation falls real rates rise that makes monetary policy tighter so if you think you're at the right level then you're going going to maybe need to bring rates down a little bit the other way they have to bring rates down as if there's a recession and they're not predicting that anymore others they're predicting we will avoid recession we will see positive growth even if it's lower than what the market thinks it's going to be going forward are we listening to John Williams more than the others because everybody's speaking today every Fed official and Tom Keene speaking too well you you listen to Tom Keene first of all but second of all you would listen to Jay Powell now the thing about the third of all the vice chair of open the market committee not the vice chairman of the Fed but the vice chair of the open market committee is John Williams it's the New York Fed president and he traditionally votes with the chairman so if you kind of know where John Williams is then you kind of know where Jay Powell is and probably Philip Jefferson who is about who has been confirmed now as the new vice chair of the Fed and probably today you'll get a pretty good idea where the Fed is going are the in a sentence you know I don't yeah I don't even know if you would call people doves and hawks anymore Chris Lowe from FHA financial had a good way of putting it this morning there's a group thinking the Fed should pause in September and may not have to hike afterwards another thinking the Fed can pause in September but may have to hike afterwards and both groups say we'll let the data decide so a hawk leans to maybe we need to and a dove leans to maybe we don't but neither one is making a firm case at this point how big a shock was claims today I mean you've got inflation report coming up 12th Lisa I think it's September 12th yeah well it's a surprise but we're around Day Labor so it's always just around holidays and there may be things like the hurricane in Florida kept kept people from filing so we may get a bump but basically the idea is we're back to where we prepandemic were with jobless claims and they're still going down so this is not what was supposed to happen with the Fed tightening policy and so therefore it seems like we still have a very tight labor market just to make it clear it's the 13th that CPI comes out and then retail sales comes out the yeah f1 is in Singapore the 17th and the the UAW strike may begin on the 14th so next week is a very big week that's the date they've threatened if they don't reach agreement a today's very big day pay attention to the comments of Bloomberg headlines you'll see and of course radio and television John Williams in conversation with Michael McKee and you know this is a such import you've got some guy do see you I believe at the panel you know it's somebody who does he knows who is the person in the company who outranks you well I would say Bramo but this is so important mr. bloomberg's gonna make comments here before Williams McKee and as a businessman it's worth listening to his comment he's yeah he knows from what's going on there out economy their FX courage I'll be in a wonderful panel before this with Torsten Slack among others of Apollo really congratulations to Laura Chapman and all of our team for putting together just an ending effort am I moving this and I'm trying to sell this as best you're in all so you sold me it to I mean you're in okay get it Marcus deteriorated McKee drove us down 200 NASDAQ points down we're 1 .3 percent it's a it's a correction I say Lisa well it's interesting because of how it's going down and because it's being led by some of the tech names the darlings which raises this issue of do you get the Anastasia and Moroso is coming in saying by the dip or do you get other people saying yeah we're projecting growth we just can't really see really when I'm back to school you know it's happening it's happening so I'm told they told me they left to go to school it's oh you don't you don't walk them to no I'm terrible mother I I did that but I had to walk eight feet behind well no it's a hurricane hurricane where's of where are my shoes where's this where's that you know that kind of thing it's always well organized wait their iPhones will break in five days stay with us this is Bloomberg Chainalysis is the premier blockchain data platform crypto businesses financial institutions and government agencies utilize chainalysis data and services to make sense of what's happening on the blockchain as regulators and policymakers work together to pass legislation that provides clarity for crypto businesses and protects consumers they have the chance to do so with unparalleled data and research into the crypto ecosystem demystify cryptocurrency and gain greater visibility and insight by visiting chainalysis .com slash radio if you love them enough to listen to them practice the same song on tuba please be over and over and over and over and over then surely you'll check nhtsa .gov slash the right seat to make sure they're correctly bundled back in the seat sounds good honey check today at nhtsa .gov slash the right seat brought to you by the national highway traffic safety administration and the act council
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"IBKR dot com slash our eye a Paul Michael McKee and this is the best interview of the day with McKee 'cause he's at 40 three minutes to actually. I know. Look at this. Michael, what matters? What's changed in the last 40 minutes for you? I think only the thing that it may be giving Wall Street some jollies today is the core services ex housing. The so called Jay Powell indicator because it did go down on a month over month basis. So that shows a lot of stuff there. Well, the biggest thing is you're taking out housing, which has everybody knows this weird impact on the CPI and PCE because it takes a long time to get in and get out. And so the feeling is that maybe we're seeing some progress and we had Bill Dudley on surveillance just a short time ago and he was saying that he thought that housing is going to start falling out of the numbers pretty soon. Yeah, and David Kelly had JPMorgan this morning. Echoed from a lot of people that the adults are looking out into the autumn and into the end of the year. And they see disinflation, even though I'm in a lather about it. I mean, people that are telling me there's no inflation out there. I'm like, you got to be kidding. I was at a restaurant last night in midtown, and it was packed to the gills and my New York strip, which usually costs 48 bucks for 60 bucks. So that was a big night. You ever be like me, you look in the menu for beyond meat Yes. Wasn't there. So Michael, I mean, Todd's all over the salad. Oh, I know, all about the salads, of course. Maybe a little bit of salmon on top if you feel crazy. So how do you think Jerome Powell will look at this print here today? The thing I said in the air when it broke is this looks like a report that was as expected. And so the fed will look at it that way and say as expected. And according Chris Lowe at FHN financial had a good line that the fed is just confirms the fed will pause in June, not because of this report, but in spite of it. Yeah, it's not going to make them do anything. So how do we, how do we think about CPI, which we get today, and then tomorrow, PPI? How do we think about it? How do economists think about that? How does the fed think about that? Well, the two don't have a direct relationship. There's a lot of shall we call them middlemen to oversimplify in between the PPI and the CPI. And so prices get distorted as some get absorbed in some get added. And so what you'll probably see, at least what we have been expecting is that PPI continues to show disinflation. We've had some months where PPI has been negative. And we're not expecting that this time, but we are expecting some low numbers. And that eventually gives you the trend that will show up in CPI, but it's not a one to one relationship. Where are we here? Where's the street these days, Michael in terms of recession calls? Is there a consensus out there about this economy? I mean, I've heard some people say, we've already been in recession. I was priced in in October. Others are saying, it's back half of this year, maybe into 2024, maybe. This consensus out there on Wall Street about the recession outlook. There's still a majority, shall we say, who think we are going to go into recession? There is a wide range of times estimated. The folks at Bloomberg economics think we get it in the third quarter, fourth quarter, and then others say we don't see it until middle of 2024. So there's a very wide dispersion here. And I think it gets back to what we were talking about with Bill Dudley Tom that this labor market is just so incredibly strong. Absolutely. It throws off all your calculations on what might be happening. Olivier Blanchard with all of his acclaim took a really first class economist. I'm going to get this wrong folks. I'm trying VCU, Virginia comedy. Come off the university. Richmond, Virginia. About sentient inflation. And Olivia was really allergic on this. He said, this is the inflation we're comfortable with. We're all uncomfortable with 5% inflation. Everybody agrees on that. Where's the mckees sentient inflation? Which as we come down and all of a sudden, we go, that's not bad. I can live with that. Where's that statistic in your head? I think you have to separate a political aspect from individual aspect. Individually, people are fine when it's between probably one and 3% because we've been between one and two for so long. It goes back to the old Alan Greenspan definition of inflation. It doesn't change your calculation on when and what to spend. But the political aspect of it is that people always think that inflation is higher than it is. And while they may be okay with it themselves, they will tell you or tell pollsters that even at one and a half percent inflation is terrible. It's running away. Because sometimes things go up in price that they're very, they notice very well, like gasoline and food. Yes. How about wages Vis-à-vis inflation? Where are we there? Are we still filling it in our pocketbook here? We still have a hole there. Real average hourly earnings, which is calculated off the CPI, came in at negative half a percent after negative 6 tenths of a percent. The prior month. So a little bit of progress, but we're not there yet. You're still down on the money side. I look Mike at this inflation statistic. It is all going to go back to what people feel without
"chris lowe" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"Whole trip. We'll be right back. You are listening to the Paul finebaum show podcast. Welcome back. Great to have all of you here. We'll talk to Chris Lowe in a few minutes. Greg is in Mississippi and you're on the air. Hello, Greg. McCall, buddy. Thank you. Yes, sir. By the way, this excitement I'll guess what markets also we're still running down. But anyway, he did call unload Alabama's name, but Brian, hey daddy, Richard cross do some games there on your channel, baseball games. And he bought the fake party about he remembered his kind of triggered me going back to that series with we had lost 16 series in a row here at state and we went out of bounds so I know the one that would be anyway the first game was on Thursday night. The guy comes in for Alabama on top of the first. I mean, it's one two three four 9 that takes him out all of a sudden we got a guy throwing the old mid 70s or something, I'm playing thank you lord. We won this series and we kind of just kind of like say kind of went downhill from there. But anyway, I think it shows a lot deeper than what people I mean, at least I think Pete Rose, at least but only on his team and not like this cat. Yeah, Greg. He always said, and I did an interview with him right after he got out of prison. That he only bet on his team. Now, whether you believe a word Pete Rose says is open for debate. Rick is up next in Florida. Hello, Rick. Hi, Paul. Hi there. I was just, I was just won't ask you a question. I've been asked for a while. Yearly Alabama fans, I'm a big joker fan. And you hear them say that Harvey smart 6 is because of working under next wave and I just kind of feel like Nick Saban wasn't the one championship to allow Kirby smart as if they could support coordinator as well in a European effort. It's impossible to know, I think he had a great program. I think Kirby smart played the biggest role, but had Kirby smart left after a couple of years, Nick Saban would have plugged that hole with someone like Jeremy Pruitt or someone else. So I think it's possible he would have won a few. I mean, he's won let me say he's won two national championships without Kirby smart. Yeah, I was trying to figure those dates out. Well, Kirby left after the 2015 season. And Sabin won in 2017, obviously against Kirby smart, and he won in 2020. Yeah, but don't you think some of those players were still Georgia? I may not carve a coach players. Well, sure, some of the ones in 2017 would have been not the ones in 2017 and 2020. That was it. That was it. Yeah, they won at 2020. Okay. I got you. Yeah, that was the COVID year. Oh, yeah. Yeah, that's true. I mean, by the way, a lot of people will debate the COVID year and that's fine with me. It doesn't matter. But it counts as a national championship. Marcus is in North Carolina. Hello, Marcus. Hey, how's it going, Paul? I want to respond to an individual moments ago about the gambling and I guess he was mentioning that he can't gamble on force because he feels that he's doing a credit to his team or his favorite team. Right. I believe that the gambling and makes it more interesting. You know, there's actually a lot of people out there who weren't introduced certain sports now that gives them an avenue to drop into a sport. Just to include fantasy, for example, you know, you can't really draft your entire team on fantasy, so you pick your favorite players. Now, obviously, some people follow teams, but there's a lot of people who follow players rather than teams. And I think there's a difference between, you know, just having a team specifically and gambling and then just following the players, what do you think about that? Yeah, Marcus, I have no problem with anyone who does anything like that, but I think your ride fantasy is a huge industry. I mean, just look at the NFL on Sunday morning. You have, you have a number of fantasy shows on guiding people. Gambling is like anything else. Is gambling worse or better than putting money in the stock market, which almost everybody has in some form or fashion. I mean, you may say, well, I don't trade stocks. I have it in my 401k. Well, it may not be difficult. You may argue it's different than being a day trader, but you're still putting money in something. Where you have almost no control over the outcome. Exactly. Thank you. Thank you. Yeah, it's a long debate that I think the question that is unanswerable though is if you took gambling out of sports, how much of the audience would go with it. And Monday Night Football or Sunday Night football is often predicated, the line matters. And I've never tried to shy away from it because I don't believe a puppet like this is where you should speak on moral virtue. This is a sports show in gambling has been a part of sports since all of us have been alive. Trey is up next to hello Trey. Hey Paul, I'd like to give some Matt some advice if I may, because I've been through quite a lot in my lifetime. Matt, I left my number with the collar. If you need to call me, Matt, I think you need to learn that you can't forget what has happened to your past. You have to learn from it, but you also need to trust in God, and when you get up in the morning and myself, I tell myself, I have to be better today than I was yesterday and everything that I do. And you know I've been through a lot. So I take every day, very seriously, and I don't worry about tomorrow, what has happened to me in my past and one other thing don't ask God to fix something for you. Ask him to get you to give you the strength to get through what you're going through and you just be the best person you can be and I think you'll live a great life because you got to trust in the lord and I just wanted to give you some advice. I hope very much that he will contact you. That would be a benefit for him, James is up next. Paul, how are you doing? Okay, James. Hello? Went to atworth Saturday. Yeah. How'd it go? Throw through auburn, Paul. You ever been to a Bucky, you know, in fact, I drove past one the other day in Birmingham. But I have been the one in believers I've been the one in Texas. They're unbelievable. These are these gas stations where they have a about a hundred different hundred pumps. It's incredible. I mean, it's like a whole community. Yeah, no. We stopped once and went in one, and I was supposed to have great food, great brisket, great sandwiches. Great everything. It's interesting, especially if you like crowds of people. 120 gas pumps. 120 guys. Exit 50 5 north, of course. South as well, you know how many electric charge and stations they had? I would not know, no. Would you care to guess? A hundred. Zero. Support Bucky's. You ever been in one of these places? They are ridiculous. We are officially out of time for this program. We appreciate all of you for being a part of it. Some really interesting guests today will see you right here tomorrow. Thank you for listening to the Paul fine bomb show podcast. The Paul fine bomb show airs weekdays on the SEC network beginning at three eastern.
"chris lowe" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"College football lives here. This is the Paul fine bomb show hour one podcast. And it's Monday a new week has begun and what a week we think this is going to be. Thanks so much for your time. Let's get right to it with some headlines and it's all about this fall. Where will the top QB battle stand? Where do they stand? We'll talk to Chris Lowe about that. In a few minutes, Jalen Miller certainly at the Vanguard of one of the most hotly contested. Meanwhile, down on the plane, you freeze, celebrating a couple of big halls in the portal, one from Michigan state, the other one from Ohio State. He's raiding the Big Ten and it could pay big dividends for the auburn tigers. Meanwhile, check out the end of the month. Yeah. Angel and Kim and the girls are heading to 1600. Pennsylvania avenue. Remember, there was a little bit of a kerfuffle over that. The only they will be that, well, they'll be there with the Yukon, the men's champion. No second place teams allowed. We are the champions. That's what they're singing on rocky top. How about the Tennessee lady vol softball won the SEC regular season, second time in history, and this is the bracket, the tournament has arrived, Fayetteville, tomorrow night, you'll see Mississippi state and missou. That is a 7 30 game, and then the games on pretty much all day, Wednesday and Thursday. And into the weekend, so what about the Alabama baseball situation? We talked about it all day on Thursday and Friday. Not the only one. There's some reports out there about Iowa right now, but what does it all mean? And how could this have happened? Chris veni joining us always one of our great friends at the athletic Chris. Thank you for joining us this afternoon and we'll pick up the story right there and we're all we right now. With Alabama and what does it mean to the industry? I know you dealt pretty deep into that subject. Good afternoon. Yeah, thanks for having me. It's really interesting timing. I was already working on a story about just gambling and college sports and where things are at, especially coming down the heels of 5 NFL players being suspended a couple of weeks ago. I asked Greg sankey about it two weeks ago at CFP meetings and then the Alabama thing drops and now maybe something with Iowa too, we don't know exactly what's going on there and it's really highlighting in the age of legalized sports gambling just how many people can be just kind of attached to it, whether it's questionable activity or what there's just a college kid place in a bet on a game that has nothing to do with their sport. So it really is an issue that's been front of mind for a lot of administrators for a couple of years since this happened and now I think these one maybe two incidents are really going to ramp up just kind of everything that goes into monitoring this stuff. Yeah, Chris, we really haven't heard anything about the Alabama situation over the weekend. But you wonder, how could this happen? And nobody seems to know what if any guardrails, that's a word administrators love. I don't know what it means. Can you put into the system to try to prevent this from getting a lot worse than a coach? And we're talking about the players. Well, the way this Alabama situation was caught was that the sportsbook and Cincinnati deemed it to be suspicious, reportedly the person may have been on the phone with the coach at the time, and that they flagged this group called U.S. integrity, which is a monitoring service that works with basically every major pro sport. They work with the SEC, the big 12, the PAC 12, some other schools, and they anonymize this information, send it out elsewhere to see what other sports are seeing, potential suspicious bets. This Alabama thing was flagged within minutes, they said, and ultimately after a couple of days, it was determined to take down Alabama off of some of these boards, a few days after that, the coach is fired. U.S. integrity has a lot of tools at its disposal to monitor this stuff. Stuff that wasn't able to be done when it wasn't legal. I mean, this type of stuff wasn't able to be done 5 years ago. Bringing it into the light making it legal makes it a lot easier to track. So the CEO of the company told me they flagged ten to 15 things per month. We've been maybe ten arrests or suspensions per month that goes up a little bit as more sports allow it. And also they have this new beta program where schools, teams, whoever can put in a list of names on your team on your staff on your trainers, your whatever, and if those names pop up if they try to place the bet somewhere on a domestic sports book that works with U.S. integrity, it's instantly flagged. So a lot more tools are available now, especially just in the last couple of years that were not before. Chris, I'm sure a lot of this is way beyond most of our understanding is I know it's beyond mine. So how does it work? I mean, I know in this case, it was a big bet, but how do these systems set up to pick up anything that would lead to what you were just talking about? It could be a lot of factors, it could be an abnormally large bet on an event that does not normally get large bets. I can't imagine there were many people in Cincinnati betting on the Alabama LSU baseball game, especially when LGB being favored as the number one team in the country. They also look at the account is that a brand new account that just popped up and placed their big bet. That's going to draw a flag is in an account that was placing small bets over a period of time and then suddenly there's a big bet. That draws flags because the sportsbooks want to catch this too. For one, they don't want to lose money if there's something suspicious going on. And two, they need the system to be legitimate. The 1994 Arizona state men's basketball point shaving scandal was discovered because the bookies in Nevada realize there's a lot of money going at Arizona state here and they alerted the FBI and the authorities and that's ultimately how that was discovered. So the commissions, the monitoring services, the sportsbooks, they're all working together to try to catch this stuff. Talking to Chris venini from the athletic Chris just before we move on to some other topics, how big of a concern is it that with so much money going into the hands of the athletes nowadays and so much gambling going on among students being so pervasive on college campuses to just lead into what we all fear and that's another point shaving some sort of scandal that rocks the sport. It's a massive concern. I mean, the two lane scandal in 1985 was orchestrated by some two line students who reigned in some players. And yeah, I mean, it was reports that like 75% of college students have placed some kind of bet in the last year that could be blackjack that could be in simply tournament. That could be whatever. It's never
"chris lowe" Discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
"And who has the best shot at dominating yeah, I thought it was interesting that kind of the perspective that a lot of these auburn guys have because them in Tennessee are the only schools that play both those teams annually. So I was kind of interested in hearing what these auburn guys thoughts seen both of them firsthand each of the last four or 5 years, however long those players were there. They had a lot of reverence for what Georgia has done. All in tapo is a Georgia native. So he keeps a pretty cool sign. He picked auburn over Georgia coming out of high school as a 5 star recruit. You see things that George is on the way to being there. I thought Kobe wouldn't had a pretty interesting response in other Georgia guy. As long as the next statement there, he feels like you can't count out Alabama, but it's kind of hard to deny what George has been able to do the last two years back to back titles for first team to do that since Alabama went back to back and decade ago. It's Georgia to make some noise again this season. I think that it's time to have that discussion. But really, the most eye opening response to me was from Nolan Smith, a former Georgia player. He was keeping all the praise on Alabama. It was like you're trying to set me up for failure. Nick Saban's one of the best coaches ever, he said, are you crazy? He thinks Alabama is always going to be a contender as long as mix there. He's like, I'm not going to stand up here and say roll tide, but they're a great program. If anything, they're kind of on equal footing, but he's like, at the end of the day, Alabama still got more rings. Everybody loves to count the rings. So he feels like until Georgia can kind of catch up there that it Alabama is still going to be neck and neck in that situation. Tom green from AL dot com a lot of great information out of Indianapolis at the combine. We will continue thank you, Tom, more of your phone calls at 8 5 5 two four two 7 two 8 5 and a couple more guests to go. We've been busy. We've had a number of guests on from Chris Lowe to Andy Staples. We had coach tubby Smith about tonight's southern hoops, here at Tom Sam acho later on later in the week we'll be in Nashville
"chris lowe" Discussed on Ante Up Poker Magazine
"And then in your spare time, you're a lawyer there, so I guess that would make you our resident any up poker lawyer, right? That sounds good to me. Yeah, I'm not quite ready to go pro with the poker thing yet. I'm actually generating just a little more income as an attorney, but, you know, who knows, I'm getting better at day by day, hopefully. Well, I don't know if I should mention this or not because I live in there in the Cleveland area, but you mentioned your ties to Texas a little bit. You said before that you were an Astros fan. How does that go over there at the tables in Cleveland? Well, you know, I have been known to wear my hats and my jerseys and been accused of cheating and whatnot. Related to that. That's science stealing scandal from 2017. Right. Your listeners probably haven't heard. It wasn't talked about very much at all. Right, right. Having spent time in Cleveland and in Houston, the way things shook out, I kind of became a football fan for Cleveland. I got season tickets to the browns, but for baseball, I'm all Astros. It was never a problem years ago, the two teams didn't really play each other. When they were in different leagues, Houston had to switch to the AL starting in 2013. So that's been the source of a little bit of grief, but having to choose, I'm keeping my blue and orange for baseball season. That's fair. That's fair. So speaking of the poker scene out there, I know, you know, the MSP T started this week at the Jack Cleveland casino. I know that the casino there moved. So tell me a little bit about that. Okay, so yeah, I would say that post pandemic, Cleveland is really emerging and Jack casino Cleveland specifically as kind of the poker capital of this part of the country. And I think it's fair to say that before the pandemic, rivers, Pittsburgh, I think, probably held that title. They had a number of WPT events, it seemed like every year there was a big WPT festival of some kind going on there. And that for whatever reason, that has not happened, post pandemic. There's a number of factors coming together that have led to this result. I would say number one, the poker room itself physically moved to a more desirable location in the casino. Okay. So this casino started out as a horseshoe property in 2012, but the poker room poker was kind of the stepchild of that casino. It was up on the third floor. It was out of the way unless you were really looking for it. You would never just happen upon it. If you know what I mean. And it wasn't terribly player friendly. There were a lot of problems, but that seemed to change with the rebranding when this became a Jack property. Things started to move in the right direction. I would say the two things more recently are the hiring of Chris Lowe says poker room manager who is a northeast Ohio native.
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We think that the fed will be holding at that terminal rate of 5 and a quarter throughout 2023 and then rate cuts could start in 2024, but don't look for the fed to be the white knight at historically has been riding to the rescue quickly and aggressively with rate cuts. I've got breaking news for you and it's not the ADP report. It's the fact that the market responded to it. Equity futures on the S&P negative about a tenth of 1%. Seriously though. With that ADP report, let's get across the Mike McKay morning Mike. Morning John, well, no help from ADP for Jay Powell and company, 239,000 jobs created in the month of October according to the payroll processor. Interestingly, they say it's a mix in the shift of hiring. We saw a big rise in service industry jobs, particularly in leisure and hospitality, but goods producers lost 8000 jobs, 20,000 jobs total loss for manufacturers. So a major change there. Mostly the hiring was at medium sized companies. And the other interesting aspect of this from the ADP, which will be somewhat complicating for the fed, is the rate of pay increases goes down. Now, people who are switching jobs still are getting double digit increases, 15.2%, but that is down from 15.7. And those who are staying in their jobs are getting raises of 7.7%, that is pretty much in line with recent months. So softening pay increases, good news for the fed still strong hiring. Not sure how they're going to take that. Michael McKee, it's a new ADP methodology. How many reports do we need to see before animals like you trust it? That's going to be a good question. We have to see and compare with the non farm payrolls numbers each month. This is only the third one for ADP. And we haven't got much of a track record, but I don't also know whether trusted is even something that ADP is looking for in this case because they're making it playing with this new survey that it is not a forecast of what we're going to get from non farm payrolls. It is simply another data point. So on that basis, 239,000 jobs is what ADP counts and I guess we stop there. And Mike, we're going to touch base with you in about ten minutes, I think. We'll catch a view at 8 30 Eastern Time. I don't even know if I'm going to do a market report off the back of this. Dan attempt of 1% on the S&P, not a major move off the back of this TK, the bond market essentially unchanged too. They're minor moves. Two 39. The estimate one 85, if you're looking for payrolls on Friday, the estimate right now in our survey, one 96 down from the previous month to 63. And to get to Friday's important because Friday still looks like a buoyant number. I mean, it's not a number zero in polls. I think when you've gone right then, it could be Mark. It was a flavor of how this market will respond to an upside surprise, which seems to be good news Tom is what? That's his favorite saying. Bad news. Love it. Good news. I was waiting for him to say that. Our good news is Michael gabin's with us. The chief U.S. economist of Bank of America thrilled he could be with us. He's from the university of James bullard, also known as Indiana University and a course of work at the International Monetary Fund as well. Thank you so much, doctor Gavin, for joining us today. I want to cut right to the chase. You and I give Chris Lowe and FT and a credit for this as well. There's a massive illusion to the American economy Jerome Powell faces today. And that is within the core equation net exports are holding us up. How poor are domestic final sales? So final sales to domestic purchasers, which would be GDP less trade and inventories grew at four tenths in the third quarter and it was two tenths I believe in the second quarter. Is that a recession? Indicator? No, it would essentially be the fed soft landing where growth is positive, but not still below trend. So the interest rate sensitive sectors of the economy housing, structures were really what weighed on activity in the third quarter. I think the inventory rebuilding cycle is also largely behind us. So yes, we got the boost from trade in the quarter, but it accounted for all of the growth in the quarter underneath that. The economy is cooling down. We've been talking about the lag time, right? The lag, the variable effects, lag time that the fed is watching right now. How long would you estimate it takes before the full effect, the dampening effect of the rate hikes that have been executed so far take effect? The cumulative effect probably as long as 12 to 18 months. You see the initial signs of it, maybe 6 to 9 months out, like we are now. The interest rate sensitive sectors tend to respond first. If financial conditions tightened in March and April, you'd expect by the third quarter of the year, it's going to show up, and it is. The cumulative effect, it's got a matriculate all the way through the rest of the economy, 12 to 18 months. How high does unemployment need to go to get inflation down? This is the number one question that these senators have right now. What kind of damage is this fed going to do to achieve its ultimate objective of getting back to 2%? So our forecast is that it'll be a little higher than the fed thinks. We're up to about 5 and a half percent is where we think the unemployment rate may go. The fed, as you know, is looking at about a percentage point rise to the mid fours. I'd say consensus is probably around 5. So somewhere between the four and a half to 5 and a half range seems to be what we're all thinking. The fed, your points exactly spot on the fed saying we need to remove imbalances in the labor market to bring inflation down. That's a bit of a euphemism for we think the unemployment rate has to rise to better balance supply and demand. That is the number one question right now. We say a little more than others. Your research was cited by senator Warren. I'm sure you're aware of that. She put it in her letter to chairman Powell, Bank of America expects that unemployment will peak at 5.6%, implying an early two percentage point jump in the unemployment rate over the next year and the loss of more than 3 million jobs. The question they're asking chairman Powell is this the price we need to pay. Is it worth paying this price to get inflation down? Now, I don't expect you to do chairman powers work for him. But there is this line. You can if you want. This line that he used in Jackson hole. And I'd love to get your thoughts on it. He said a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater pain. Can you elaborate on that a little bit for us, Mike? How people understand. What would happen if they didn't tackle this? So the feds believe I'm wired the same way is to think that the economy performs best over the very long term when we're not spending an hour talking about where is inflation and where is it going? You want to remove that variable off the table. So low and stable inflation gets you the best macro outcomes over the long term. I think we make a mistake right now when we think, oh, the fed's going to over tighten and make a policy error. I think the fed is saying, no, no, no. The policy error is not getting inflation down to 2%. Now, we don't know if we need a recession to get us there. But if we do, if that is ultimately what's needed, the fed would say we should pay that price now because to your point, waiting and paying it later, history says, well, we're going to have to pay a lot more. So we don't like to be in the position that we're in, but we need to remove and balances in the labor market. And we think we need to get to that sooner than later. So the true policy mistake is not getting inflation down to two. It's not the mistake is not creating some pain in the labor market to get there. If that makes sense. Do you know who's in their office right now, Tom? Chairman Powell making notes for the news conference when he gets asked the question. I read the senator Warren letter carefully. Senator Warren did not cite Mark Cabana. I don't know what that is about. I gave him, but not Cabana. Well, Cabana just the stuff on the balance sheet. The balance sheet
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Please should be does have to remind itself and remind markets I should say that it's primary ethos is to control inflation. We don't think that these people will reach a restrictive territory before the start of 2023. The global economy is not getting very soft at the moment. Inflation will probably be staying sticky and hard and companies will pass some of that through. There is lower inflation in the pipeline, but it's not in the headline figures yet, and I don't think the fed is prepared to blink. This is Bloomberg surveillance with Tom Keene, Jonathan farrow, and Lisa Abramovich. Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Farrah, Lisa Bradley and Sam king. We welcome you on a Friday on radio on television. We welcome you to double digit inflation. No, not food inflation in the United States. John farrow, Germany joins Italy. This is ugly. 11 handle for CPI in Germany year over year, 11.6% on CPI. And we've got a big turn of events in this bond market too. Yesterday, major rally, yields lower today, big sell off your tap at the front end of the curve Tom in Germany, the two year up 17 basis points. My problem with this is really, really smart people thinking really, really hard, are undershooting the trend everywhere and you wonder if that's going to be in the United States as well. We said it a few times. We keep talking about peak inflation time. If it's in our past in America, is it still in our future in Europe? Because that inflation number is getting worse, have this conversation yesterday about the ECB, having some kind of step down. Let's talk about how difficult it is for this European Central Bank this week. 75 basis point hike, CPI in Germany with an 11 handle and Lisa PMIs in the 40s. That is the central bankers dilemma. Downside risk the growth upside risk to inflation, what on earth do you do with interest rates? Especially at a time when you did not get the worst case scenario come to fruition or whether it has been somewhat mild, you haven't seen those stockpiles of natural gas come down as much as they had feared and still inflation is coming in harder than people expected, even with lower prices, you wonder, Tom, how this is going to play out. Considering that the ECB is going to try to crack down and we do have a lag. Bring it over to the United States, John two days, Halloween. I'm going as a swap line on Tuesday, November 1. ISM manufacturing survey is 50.0 and a 49 handle there again as that tendency. We'll say if we start to get that downturn in America, Tom, you saw that subtle hints of that in the GDP report. Yesterday, many people did. Well, okay, I take the point here that again, Chris Lowe was outstanding on this of a really fragile GDP report, but here this morning, bringing it over to earnings, forget about Twitter and all that theater. There's some good earnings out there, but everyone focused on big tech dealing with inflammation, dealing with the dynamics of dollars. With a focused on big tech because that's where the waiting is. That's where the power is, the big weightings in a market cap weighted S&P 500. You look how swear our energy Exxon Chevron, crushing it through the air and today on the quarter Tom. Great numbers. What are we here from President Biden, Lisa today? You've talked to Ann Marie and others here. I mean, does the administration get out front here and full election panic? Well, they probably will. They're probably say that this is going to really get their investments up that it isn't as significant as it could be. But what's the actually going to do given that we have two weeks? Two weeks, so the election. And it's not clear what they can do. David costan was a serious in a moment. Let's get through the data John very quickly. I'm going to do yen quickly here backs up off BOJ one 47 51 rounded up one 48. Where is that statistics Sunday? 7 p.m.. Did you just say bad axon as if X was a dog's name? Yeah, Exxon. The president's hospital. That total. Is that what the president's going to do? Bad exercise. Just stop it. Of the election, they're going to get crushed in Washington because they're going to go up there. They're going to be there, you know, I promise to sell the truth the whole truth. And they're going to go project your project. You're going to get a costume before it runs away. You do the data again before costumes waiting for a day. And it's already futures it down by about 5 tenths of 1%. The bond market yields are higher by 9 basis points. The higher in Europe, that CPI print from Germany's ugly. David Carson Goldman Sachs joins us this morning. David, can you explain to me how your world has changed from when I studied three to 4% FX adjustment on equities and all of a sudden we're doing dollar adjustment of 6%, 8% and the CFO of Apple said near 10% yesterday. How does your world change with strong dollar? Well, the way the world changes from a fundamental point here in the United States is that 70% of the revenues of U.S. companies are actually generated domestically. So therefore, the sensitivity of companies from a corporate point of view is largely going to be focused in the technology sector where almost 60% of their sales are overseas. So from that point of view, Tom, the translation back is really going to be focused in certain areas as opposed to broadly across the market. When you look at the sales of healthcare companies, utilities and the telecom companies, even financials, largely domestic in nature, and therefore it's less sensitive than maybe is widely perceived. But it is definitely a concern and a focus on some of the global multinationals tech in particular. I'll tell you, let's talk about buybacks. This came from market insider yesterday. Listen to these numbers, meta spent 45 billion on buybacks last year, paying about three 30 a share on average meta yesterday close with a 97 handle. David cost him what on earth is going to happen with corporate buybacks in the year to come. And just walk us through because I know you and the team at Goldman do so much work on this. The importance of buybacks as a feature of demand in this equity market. So Jonathan critical point is the fact that over the last ten years, every year, the single biggest source of demand for U.S. shares has been corporate repurchases. So question here is this year there'll be up around 5% versus a year ago. And our forecast next year is they'll probably decline by about 10%. So 10% less buybacks in 2023 than this year, that's assuming a soft landing. Jonathan, if you had a recession scenario that's probably down 40%. That is, again, a very significant development in the terms of the confidence the CEOs have in the outlook for business activity in the coming year. That does drive some of their decisions on their capital spending. I've spoken with some boards this week as they think about their uses of cash in the coming 12 months. The idea of how important capital spending is, relative to research and development dollars, how do they think about the prioritization of merger and acquisition spending, but buybacks has been the default use of cash for a lot of companies. And that is likely to be receding as we look into calendar 2023 and that again has been the single biggest support function for equity prices in the last ten years. David, just to sort of underline this point, how much do you expect this to pull back in terms of how much stocks can gain? Just simply because this massive buyer will not be there. Well, it's a big issue. We think about flow of funds if you want to think about it in that context. The idea of pension funds is countercyclical buyers would be one area of source of demand, partially
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Are up 40% plus this year using trend based studies, explain to our audience what you didn't do to generate a return larger than the triple leveraged all cash fund. So trend strategies are really about following what the market is doing. Not what the market should do. And I think that's where we're in a very good position because frankly, nobody knows what the market is or should do going forward given the complexity of the new macro environment that we're in. So I think in that sense, it's really been difficult to make a call on something that most investors have never lived through. And then a different macro environment than most of us really have sort of been used to. I mean, look at the correlations. Today is a perfect example. Today we have stocks down, bonds down, dollar up again. And that's a very strange cross asset theme, but it's the prevailing theme in this type of environment. Katie, can you find any kind of theme when it comes to the optimism in stocks perversely from this idea that the fed's going to back away? And then the pessimism on the tech universe after some of these earnings. That's a good question, because earnings coming in is just another data point that people have to absorb, to try and understand this narrative. And when we look at what's been happening now, obviously duration exposure is something that a lot of tech investors are thinking about, but also the fact that you're really seeing that divergence across sectors across economies across the world. So we're really seeing, even though there's key macro scenes, these macro changes are really creating winners and losers in this particular environment. So it's making it a very interesting environment to be a tactical trader or someone that's looking for sort of deviations from the mean. It's not just a stocks always go up, buy your 60, 40 environment this year, which means that there's opportunities for those who are a little more tactical. Hey Kenny, you've been tremendous this year. Congratulations to you and the team. Can I come in there about for simplex? Tom, I do wonder, do you think anyone's ever walked into like Schwab somewhere? On Main Street and asked for the triple leverage, all cash. No, they do. I got a book in treatment on this right now. I just wanted. I want that. Exactly. No, I mean, it triple leverage is a little difficult. There's a white paper that was put out years ago that the leverage, the leverage pivot point, mathematically is 2.8 to one. But because of the marketing goose we're getting, we go to three to one instead of 2.8 to one. And what really makes it worthwhile is with a triple leverage, I can get a two and 20 split in the feed. Nice. Versus a normal money market. Are you ready to retire this year? No, we don't think this year, we need to see rates come in. We need to see the fed to blink before I can talk about retirement. Just can I do a public service now? Please please do. This is made up right now. So anyone going to be looking for this triple leverage all cash fund? Please use your time wisely. Across the bottom of the screen for the whole show. You have to do that periodically. So the small print. Please disregard the international fund. We're looking at international fund, but I can't get the two and 20 if I go international. In all seriousness. It's really a problem. Trying to get out of this. I started it. Futures down by 7 tenths of 1% on the S&P. Big turn around in the bond market up 9 basis points. What you'll notice in Europe is that yield to a lower in Germany by something like 15 basis points. This morning, they're higher by 15 basis points. I don't think this bond market volatility leads to a settled down really in a material way. At all. I would completely agree. And it goes to the point that you were talking about German GDP earlier. It came in higher than expected. So this basically gives more of a pass to the ECB to keep hiking rates and shows that things are not cooperating as much as they would like. Fabulous note yesterday tearing apart the optimistic GDP number of America. Pessimistic. In pessimistic. Why sound less constructive? On the net export basis, Chris Lowe hit the ball out of the park yesterday. The president's words on it. I wrote it down. Oh, please. I'll find them for you. With today's third quarter GDP, we got further evidence that our economic recovery is continuing to power forward. There we are. The Antichrist low. Yes, somewhat different to what the economists are saying. Futures down 7 cents. This is Bloomberg. Now the latest news from New York City and around the world, here's Michael Barr. Tom Lisa John Elon Musk now owns Twitter after months of will or won't he go through with his original $44 billion deal, Bloomberg has learned the billionaire reportedly fired the company's CEO and other executives. The billionaire also intends to scrap lifelong bans on users. The U.S. has modified its policy on the use of nuclear weapons. Bloomberg's head Baxter has the story. This is the updated national defense strategy. It says China remains the greatest threat to U.S. national security and defense secretary Lloyd Austin says China is aiming for world dominance. The key theme of the NDS is the need to sustain and strengthen U.S. deterrence with the People's Republic of China as our pacing challenge. So the U.S. will now not rule out the use of nuclear weapons to fight conventional threats. In San Francisco, I'm at Baxter Bloomberg radio. America's top diplomat addressed the humanitarian crisis in Haiti, meeting with the Canadian foreign minister and Ottawa Secretary of State Antony Blinken. So reporters that Canada and the Biden administration agree that more likely needs to be done to help Haitian national police combat gangs. Between deepening food and fuel shortages, the growing
"chris lowe" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Just moments away from the housing starts Wednesday, which I assume is what we're going to be calling it. We are seeing the S&P lower now by nearly 6 tenths of a percent. Michael mckeel Bloomberg economics and policy correspondent with us here to break down the numbers as we get that Mike. Well, we're getting them right now, Lisa and it looks like a beat on expectation. A little bit less on expectations. Put it that way, but down from last month, an 8.1% decline on a month over month basis in housing starts, 1 million 439,000 the expectation was for 1 million 461,000. Now that's the annual rate at which they're built out. Building permits were looking for here building permits come in at 1 million 564 and that is a lower than that's better than expectations. Because they revised it here. 1 million 5 42 was last month. So it's still better than last month. So it does show that builders have some, shall we say business left to do? I was going to say some confidence these days, but we saw the home builders index yesterday fall to the lowest basically since the 2008 financial crisis brought on by housing. And so it doesn't look like they have a lot of confidence, but they do have a lot of backlogs and they are putting housing starts, they're pulling permits and I guess they will probably put some of those houses into the ground. So I just want to give you a sense. I don't know if you can attribute it to this data, but you're listing the two year yield breakout. Now it's a newest highs since going back to 2007, 4.52%. You could see the dollar gaining. You could see the opposite effect, and this is basically what's good for stocks is good for bonds. What's bad for stocks is bad for bonds, you're seeing losses deepen in the S&P lower and Tom, this really speaks to what you've been talking about, which is basically how much are people looking at housing, the resilience, they're not necessarily giving pause 7 tenths of a percent decline right now on the S&P. It's there. And you see it in north of the border in Canada, once again, a more persistent inflation as well. Michael McKeon, a global basis 10.1% United Kingdom, 6.8%, Canada, this is a theme, this new persistency of inflation. Is it a theme that drifts away and according to the estimates or do we go into the end of the year and into next year farther distant further distant? I should say from transitory. Well, that's a big debate right now. A lot of people suggesting that there are forces out there that will bring inflation down that we can only see them on the horizon, but they are going to start affecting the overall level of inflation. Others are saying, well, the problem here is no longer the transitory stuff which may go down. It's the cyclical aspect to it. Chris Lowe of FHN financial this morning saying cyclical inflation is the hardest thing to get rid of because the only way to get rid of it is to end the cycle. So the only way to get rid of it would be to have a recession. And that is concerning to him. The one thing we can say about housing other than the construction part, which may be due to backlogs and there is a very large backlog supply out there, is that housing is the one area that has responded to the fed. Mortgage applications down four and a half percent. They're down 58% since the fed started raising rates and by some measures we've got 7%, 30 year mortgages now. Well, we talk about the need to get inflation down. Obviously, that's what the Federal Reserve would like to see. They probably aren't seeing it to the degree that they want to yet. And we keep seeing these continued upside surprises and we've had conversations over the last several hours that inflation isn't realistically going to get back down to 2%. We could just be looking at something structurally higher. When does the fed decide to make that call that either they have to go way farther to get down to 2% or they're just not going to try anymore to get to 2% that they're going to target something else. Well, the idea of changing the target is something that people are beginning to talk about, but that's months and months, if not years away, that would be a major decision and probably would wait until they're 5 year review. It comes up in about two and a half years or so. But the idea that they don't get down to 2%, they accept that that's a possibility. The idea that they have to make a decision of whether to keep going and raising rates, that's going to be a meeting by meeting decision because we're going to have to see what the data show each time and they'll have to figure it out. There's no more guidance here. Good to have Michael mckew with us today. Always a fed speaker. Michael mckean running all of our economic coverage is well. He is director of White House national economic council, which means he is mom during the political season and we are knee deep in the political season now to the midterms. Brian deese joins us from The White House this morning. Brian, to me, the singular note, which does wrap around your remit, is the gentle lady from Hawaii is exited the Democratic Party. And miss Gabbard was really something about the cowardly wokeness of the elitist Democratic Party. Your boss is the most middle class representative boss of his generation. Joe Biden breathed Scranton. What's going to be the reset on Democratic Party, economic policy for the middle class coming out of this
"chris lowe" Discussed on ESPN Chicago 1000 - WMVP
"Why now? I think it was two reasons that loss to Stanford that you referenced featured a lot of the same issues that had propped up the last three or four years under clay health and poor red zone execution penalties, mistakes. At bad time, just a messy style of play. So that's one reason also, you look at the schedule upcoming USC as Washington State on the road, Oregon at home Colorado on the road. Those are three games at the Trojans should win. So in essence of Mike Bone felt, which he did. This thing wasn't going to get turned around. He almost didn't give clay health and that chance to get up. Some wins before the schedule turned tougher and you're the first school into the market to try to get a new head coach. But it could be a slippery slope in college athletics earlier on ESPN radio Orian Fitzsimmons when you start making decisions as an athletic director Based on the opinion of fans and alumni. You will be sitting with the fans and the alumni. When you start listening to fans and alums, you end up sitting with him Mark this down, Okay? It might happen next week. This oughta be good. It might happen in two weeks. I guarantee it will be by next season, garrote. Take Clay Helton will be added. To the coaching staff as a consultant or advisor at the University of Alabama. Why? Because of this? Yes, Yes, I am. Exercise. The dean let Nick Saban's healing hand be laid down upon the forehead of Clay Helton as it was done with Lane Kiffin. As it was done with Bush Jones as it was done with Michael Oxley as who has been done with so many others, please. When you show up on Nick Saban staff as one that has been scorned. Let the yellow your chorus sing. Here it comes play Helton to Alabama. I promise thee it shall be done. Jen. You flaked and worship upon the house of Saban. Clay Helton will be the next to be healed Right now. It's Bill O Brien as his offensive coordinator, Clay Helton. Come on down. You are the next to be healed in the house of Sabah. No. Yes, Yes, I am. Exercise the demons. Also from college football, seventh rain, Texas A and M Without Haynes King. He's got a crack in his lower leg to school hasn't given a timeline. But sources telling ESPN's Chris Lowe thing is expected to be out four. 27 weeks. SportsCenter all night, ESPN radio. Let's turn out to Kevin Winter in the best from Monday's action, five plays of the day number five J three weeks left to go in the baseball regular season in the Astros. Are looking good Taking on Texas on.
"chris lowe" Discussed on Ologies
"I think some of those movies are they're fun. they're fun they're kind of a cool twist and they're so unrealistic that it actually helps. It helps get people over the fear of sharks because they think that's just utterly ridiculous so in a way the can't be ones like that. Actually help sharks i think. Do you have a favorite shark movie. I'm sure you have several on favorite shark movies. Oh my god people give me. Dvd's all the time i have stack. They're trying to attract giving away can actually jaws is one of my favorite cities. That really is well for me. I was there. I grew up on. Martha's vineyard so i was there when they were filming it. Oh my god half my a half my kids. I went to school with her in the movie. Have not holy shit. That's crazy so for me. Watching jaws is like a family reunion. So do you think that influenced at all your work with sharks. Or how do you grapple with the fact that like that. That movie is part of your childhood. And it's part of so many people's of sharks how do you merge the two. Well you know that maybe there and seeing how is made you know so watching the sausage being made your impression of what you're eating right so the idea there is you know we saw all the things you know. Lot of my friends. School friends were in the movie. There were either extras and things like that. And you know. They saw the mechanical shark and know. Sometimes it didn't work and you know when you see all those things then you realize just a movie right so i think being there when that was happening made it easier. Of course when you watch the movie the brilliance of steven spielberg right. None of the things he wanted actually shoot like that. Real underwater footage. They had a hard time getting and then the mechanical shark really worked so he made that movie where you actually only see the shark only minutes of the movie. I didn't realize that watch it again. See how many times you actually see a shark whether it be a mechanical unreal one. So it's your brain. That's doing that. Your brain is building the monster. And that was the brilliant part that in the soundtrack the ad is just amazing right. I mean john. Williams is amazing so it creates that whole scene in your head. This feels kind of like a shark based stop hitting yourself kind of situation to the movies doing it but also we're doing it to ourselves and now have you ever said beyond with me in the field. We're going to need a bigger boat. Yes has it happened. Yes it has. It's having a couple times now because of the sizes sharks but usually because the ocean that we're in so last summer my students were out tracking those baby. Hammerhead a baby white sharks that i was telling you about doing this out of a small seventeen foot boston. Whaler third shark. We did at one o'clock in the afternoon. My students call me up and they go so i go okay. I told my other students take out a bigger boat. And we'll switch boats so they switch out boats and then i get another phone call at one o'clock in the morning and they're like we're now off newport beach that's like twenty two miles away and they go coach. They're going then when they know when they're ready to leave a spot. It seems like they know exactly where to go. And they make a beeline. They're just saying we out. Yep you know. I'm done with with long beach. I'm going to dana point. And i'm going to hang out there for months. Ryan smith schuster. No club as it would like go to a club. Ten thirty arrive eleven fifteen the next club. You're like what are we going next places dead. Have you been in an underwater shark cage. Yes you've been in those right. My thought on them is like they look scary. But also i'm like they look like they're not gonna seem like they would be safer than other things because they're not gonna bite through the bars right. Yes exactly. he's fun. Is it crazy it. It's kind of cool. I mean you do do feel somewhat restricted right You know because you you. You can't move as well as a diver. I'm used to being in the open water. I feel more comfortable being able to move a little bit more freely The other thing is always a little uncomfortable is when the cages hanging in the water. And you're hanging by a rope right for a table or something like that. Okay wait a minute. I made a box Over two hundred feet of water you know. It sounds like a plot to movie right. Yeah And you're going. How quickly can i get out of here. If i have to But the biggest problem that has occurred with some of the cages is that the photographers want does have been campus and they wanna get those big cameras out those windows. You don't get a beautiful shot of this awesome sharks when we buy bars in it. So they make the windows bigger but what happens. Is the smaller. Sharks can swim through the windows and occasionally when they get in the cage. They don't like that and they start bouncing off the walls in your in the cage with a shark and the shirts not happy about being in the cage and you're trying to get out of the cage. Yeah those are those are good scenarios. Yeah that sounds like having a be in your car. It's kind of like that. So for me. I prefer not to use cages Any goodclearwater when you see trucks coming and instruction no. You can see them coming. You feel more comfortable. Have you ever gotten a little love. Nibble from a shark The little ones because they don't like being held right no a lot. Animals that don't like being held so Those are the ones that are there. Some forgiveness. there is little teeth lure wounds. I i've been bumped a couple times. I've been come close to getting bit. But there's one rule in my lab. One rule really important rule do not getting as the number one rule. I was told me students. If there's one thing you leave the lab with rule.
"chris lowe" Discussed on Ologies
"Does that mean that they're not sleeping or that. They're moving while sleeping. Well that's the big question so there's good evidence that some of these sharks actually do kind of go quiescent even though they're moving so you know you think of those people that are restless sleepers. Even while they're sleeping they're rolling all over at one of those people you know so i could probably get more exercise sleeping that i do during the day sometimes but so so it's not animals aren't moving. They are moving. It's just that they have to do that to breathe but what we think is their brains are kind of slowing down and everything is slowing down and we recently did a really cool experiment with these baby white shirts that were studying and we built a custom fit bit for them that clemson their dorsal fin and that fitbit measures every tailgate. They make and also measures every motion. They make what we found was really cool. So to the sharks. So we tracked. We're doing these thirty foot circles. And they were swimming in a bank. So they'd bank swim a thirty foot circle and that circle was almost a perfect circle. Oh craze and they would do that for twenty minutes and then all sudden they would stop and reverse and go back the other way and they do that for twenty minutes and they'd stopped reversing back the other way and they would do that for four hours. Oh my god. So we're scratching our heads going. What in the hell is that. So my students started looking through the literature and it turns out that migratory birds that fly will actually turn off their brain and when they do that they'll fly in a circle in one direction and then they'll turn off the other have their brain influence flying the opposite direction. Oh my word so physiologist believe that. That's the way that these migratory birds which are worn bide raise so they're spending a lot of energy keeping their bodies warm are are basically resting their brain and they kind of go on autopilot like that are sharks doing the same thing. Then it could be could be and now when you say white sharks. Is that a new term for great white sharks or a white sharks. Little great white sharks really. Good question We we've gotten rid of the great part so okay and common name now is white shark. Okay aka the great white because great white has such cachet for like watch out. It's a killer right you know. It's given him such a big head. There's dick's now we're trying to bring them back to reality. there's such a prima donna. We're just gonna be white sharks complicated coffee orders and so we just call white sharks now. Okay that's good to know. I wasn't sure if they were just like little ones and then is there. What is the biggest flimflam that you would like. To debunk about sharks. If you could bust a myth what would it be well. So there's there's actually a lot probably the biggest one is if you're in the white shark it it's going to attack you that just simply is bullshit Just hundred i mean we have that millions of people in the water in southern california year round in an among sharks every single day and nothing happens now they may not see the shark but those sharks should there so this myth that if you're in the water structure by the other one is if you're in the water and you're bleeding great example and i get this every spring if a woman is menstruating. Is it safe for her to swim in the ocean. Yes i got this question from patron and mars expert jennifer boost who was a guest on a previous episode. She said kenneth sharks moment period in the water or wet. Probably if it's very close but the reality of it. Is there little kids out there on the beach that are all skinned up right leaning so every little kid that goes to the beach skins his knee or her knee on something is bleeding in the water. It's not like sharks picking them off every day. It's just not true so people have this vision that a drop of blood sense sharks into this crazy. It's just not true. Okay and the other examples. I use is man. I can't tell you how many hours i've spent putting hundreds of pounds of ground fishing blood in the water to try to attract sharks and get absolutely nothing right. You're like you must be the real chum master out there like how much of your work involves hauling buckets of chum. I used to do it a lot. I try to do it less now. Okay so mainly because we're putting a lot of nutrients in the ocean that we don't need to use their better ways to attract sharks so but but the bottom line is here's the situation we were trying to attract them using the same things and we can't right so this whole aliseo my god. I'm bleeding in the water. You know sharks you're gonna you know form a frenzy. It's just not true now. Where do you remember the moment you heard about a shark nato. Do you remember the actual moment. And what your reaction was. Actually after the first one came out. I never saw any of them. After the first one came out i got a call from a reporter who actually asked me. Could that really happen. I mean the answer is yes. Sure time mary frequent. I was shocked. And i was trying to determine whether series i think they were. They were and i was like well. You know there are cases during hurricanes and things like that that sharks in inland. They actually get carried by storm surge and things like that but i don't i don't think i've ever heard of swirling tornado of sharks swirling around off the ocean from a waterspout. That just doesn't happen. So i i think those are the sorts of crazy things that every once in a while happen and you shake your head like what really even though the world can seem like a dystopian simulation right now like politically like shark. Nato is not going to happen. no it's not going to happen is crazy as it may be But but the bottom line is actually..
"chris lowe" Discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
"You can't the the analogy. I always uses announcers are like ice cream. Flavors like one person's chocolate is another person's pralines and cream is another person's vanilla taste. It's it's just tone on the ear. It's all that kind of stuff. And i was telling somebody you know. I had the job tampa had announced recently and my friend was asking me. She's like do people ever like get mad that you got hired. I was like somebody will. I mean it's just it's impossible to please everybody in such a subjective. Kind of you know kind of thing. That's the exact words subject and You know it's tough to please everybody Going back backtracking is congratulations on getting that tampa. Job richard been there for years and nobody wants to be up gig follow. I mean you're going into a spot that's gonna be tough to replace but i know you'll You'll fit in. Well i was gonna ask who is who is calling the rate because obviously hastings was exhibition. Park back. When you were getting going. Who was calling. When you started at frazier over hastings. Well i if you wanted to go right back to the story you know we. We knew that the legendary jack short was gonna retire because that was pretty friends with them and of course dancing to go to be cit in broadcasting and you know You can see you know. They want to hire you as six or exhibition park. You know i was twenty twenty. One does play baseball summer. Trip samuel down on sundays. Because there's no sunday racing here and i said i don't want to tie up my summers. You know nothing else. So i just let that go on and jack retired. They hired by doug greet for. I want to say twelve years. Maybe at at exhibition park and then he retired or resigned. Or whatever happened to the came up and i decided to apply at Fraser and cloverdale da- point for ten years so But it's a lot different. Let me tell you not know i. I've only. I've only called standard once. And that was that was up at century. Downs in calgary and it is different beast. It's obviously it's a little easier insensitive unfold slower but it's harder to see the colors because they're behind the horse like it's just a it's a whole different language. I kept saying running which i got yelled at by somebody for roy. Call runners not running. No no so so you quit. We have a little bit of an overlap here. pc between fraser and hastings. I have to be careful as to what i say. Because they'll be racing the same time say in september and i'll be going wednesday friday at fraser and saturday sunday in the old days a couple of years ago in. Hey thing so you have to be careful. you don't make up your running in your racing's and In the sulky and you know this kind of stuff. So it's a challenge. And i see one of our compatriots like will chamberlain from evangeline to harness that hoosier so I'm sure he had a bit of a transition to so it's not as easy and you know the the biggest thing i don't know why they don't standardize the colors. Yeah because what one man's black south of is not the black saddle pad artist and why they can't get together to try and make it easy for the public to find a number and say okay. Number one is always x. Number two is always white in know But to each his own you just have to roll with the punches and try and figure out that got me at At century there was a white towel. Move in and i was like. Oh it's it's the two and them nope that's the three crafts. But you know. I didn't put many expectations on myself for that day. So i knew there was going to be some mistakes like that. I wanna talk about hastings in the sense. That i feel like hastings doesn't get the love it deserves is like being kind of a beautiful place and i mean it's an unreal backdrop that you guys have there and i don't know if it doesn't but every time i like post pictures or video of their people like wow that's hastings like it's a great place to spend a day at the races it certainly isn't and i have the best obviously Bias but i have the best anywhere because i do have that in letting the mountains in the backdrop I don't think pretty your track around. I mean dell mars bigger tracking. They've got the pacific ocean to the left there. At the top of the stuff we know what a great place to spend a summer day and even some of the friday nights like you know really kind of magical sunsets behind The mountains that cassidy's kind of hugh over the track in the late july before we start getting into the tilling group of september october. Yeah you and you know again. Pre cova i mean i. I've gone up there for many a friday or sunday or saturday card. I mean you guys get good crowds on track food trucks. It's just it's it's such a cool place to go and you know i. I think i feel like the northwest. Daily double hitting emerald and hastings in the same weekend is a is a great trip if folks are considering race track trips at all you know thirty plus years of getting a call some amazing horses and races up there. Do you have some some favorites over. The years of horses is a racist. You've got nicole up there. Well you know The first derby cars. That'll be probably the same with your. You'll you'll pick out the most important races as the one that Kinda sticks so but Blue light one. The first derby for me here at the be gregory was trainer. I believe in you know. I was always at the the derby for years and then to get the call it with something else so at delta colleen and we're going back quite a few years but you know the source delta colleen. She always made this huge wide. Swooping move and jockey was legendary. Chris lowe steph but. Chris was on suspension or hurt that this one time and they had a subsitute writer brian johnson as it passed a half mile just before they went to the backstretch looking. And here's his delta colleague going to the front. I'm thinking no no. No no you're supposed to be at the back of the pack. I'm supposed to be calling you at the end. But brian coke. Stir home but it was It was quite a feat because I think he surprised everybody by getting a jump. On early it was funny grownup seattle. I always knew a lot of the names of the big horses because they would sometimes come down for racist but also like you know like the stakes races up. There would get named after him. And so you knew about delta colleen and the lord nelson would come down here. It was always a big thing. And that's always kind of one of the fun parts of the lawyer here. Smile is you guys usually send a representative and have set some some winning ones over the years. Of course you know herbie d- Went down there and one of the violet. Nice to see you know what i think more anything else. Thanks to see A humble kid lake Mario gutierrez start here. Acing said that up going on and winning to kentucky derbies and almost weep in the triple crown. Except you didn't get to run in the one so the the final break the belmont. So it's great to see stuff like that. I was gonna ask. Do you remember the one race. I called hastings. Still have it on tape somewhere on a dvd. I was gonna mail it down to you but you know you. You didn't want it. So i thought well what the heck. I went upstairs so dan for..
"chris lowe" Discussed on What Difference Does It Make
"Was doing afternoons. I think yeah like three. Yeah three this album was doing evenings. Industrial street midday. So you do road trips with with music director larry groves or are you just go out on your own and just talked through the piles. Yeah i just wanted you know. I found a bunch of stuff and then eagle was was one of the. He was also very into imports. Trying to find the hottest songs i and he was on the air so you know he played all this stuff. But i got my foot in that at a nightclub called marilyn's and pasadena and that was a teen club where he was sixteen and up I started teaching at least once a week which was great and then i needed all these records. So i've spent all my money on records we are going to talk about nineteen eighty-four. I gave you a list of songs. songs forty two thirty one. We're gonna countdown. I have a feeling you might have remixed a couple of these these songs and so you might have some some nice insight into what we're talking about here simple simple minds as a medley of would waterfront in it. Yeah okay so how would explain. These mega remix is because it kind of like back in the seventies we had this there was a top ten song called stars on forty five whereas like it was like a medley of songs that just kind of more one one after the other kind of segue meant that mentally was played and it had a backtrack with the beat. Yes i did that. It's just the original recordings landed together. And i figured out a way to set the actual speed of the song so i could actually also as close as i try to get them into okay because they're all at different keys. Find parts of the songs where there were no ki- drums or stuff and try to use to breaks to blended together. So it's it's basically a medley of of one band i met. Neil tennant chris lowe ad here in sweden when they had concert a few years ago and they told me about an interview. They did with richard blade about how the pet shop boys.
"chris lowe" Discussed on ESPN Chicago 1000 - WMVP
"ESPN happens except Channel 80 keep weighing in on Twitter getting a lot of great tweets all you about tonight, the big trade happening India involving four teams and James Harden on his way to the Brooklyn that's like Todd, who said it, Coleman, ESPN. And the infancy ESPN, she says. I was glued to Twitter. When trade details came out, I would have lost it if Carrie was in the deal. I'm here for that drama to L O. L keep winging on Twitter about your thoughts about the trade James Harden and eight draft picks for its spots. Three swabs. Excuse me for other picks going to the Houston Rockets, probably 14 trade keep weighing in a coma, ESPN And also, if it's ESPN, we got some coaching news real quick. So we get to the New York just opening their coaching search and urban mind me having another team for services trying to get back in the game news out of Alabama regarding a former coach about the joint staff Index saving Yeah, and this is AH, It's the big one. Bill O'Brien, former head coach, the Houston Texans. After and I'm going back now, two weeks. It was a Saturday and it was before the Rose Bowl. So you're going back to the Saturday before the rose. Give me the Yeah, yeah. Against Notre Dame. Um, the Rose Bowl's in Texas. But he shows up fusion. Yeah, yeah. I mean, it was like, Wait, What? I was there. I was part of the broadcast. That's the worst part man. I got a boost have the Cotton Bowl in New York City, Bill O'Brien came to campus the day after the rose and stayed in Tuscaloosa. From that we can all the way until Thursday. That's a long time man. It was just to be checking out some dreamland in Archibald's barbecue or hitting up Chuck for some sushi, right, so he wasn't there for the food, right? So He was there just in beyond intrigue, talking to two different people inside that Alabama program. It was he was immense, just completely dove into the deep end of the pool to see what exactly Makes this place so unique under Nick Saving And right now, our man Chris Lowe is reporting that Bill O'Brien, former head coach of the Texans, will be the new offensive coordinator, replacing Steve Sarkeesian. You left to go to Texas. At Alabama. And a hair care we go again. Ready yet? Lane Kiffin? Yes, Steve Sarkeesian? Yeah. I mean, Mike Stoops is there right now, But Jones has got a new guy got coaching job again. You know Major Applewhite and offensive coordinator back in college football. It is the healing hands. Of saving when he lays them upon the on you spend time at the capstone. You leave a transformed angel Kelowna and you go back into the world and you have immense success. Even though I don't need the healing hands of saving laid upon the back show up like Brian Table. Outstanding offensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills went to Tuscaloosa to have those hands laid upon him. And now he is a head coaching candidate when the hottest names In the National Football League. That is what Saint Nick does. So here comes Bill O'Brien, the latest one Have those healing hands laid upon his forehead. If you spend one year with that guy, you will be a head coach again. At least a coordinator somewhere with your reputation wiped clean and you have a fresh start. That's for those healing hands. Could do. Mr. Coleman will this girl okay?.
"chris lowe" Discussed on Sports 600 ESPN
"It's a time of new beginnings for a lot of folks and with new beginnings. The hope is that things will get better. Right. Well, that's exactly what the people in good old Austin, Texas at the University of Texas are hoping after deciding to part ways with head football coach Tom Herman. After four seasons leading the Longhorns. There were plenty of rumors swirling this college football season that the two parties may part ways. But just three weeks ago Texas administration said that Herman would remain the coach of the program. So our college football analyst Desmond Howard did not see this one coming. Surprised because, like you, I thought they were going to give him another year. Why did it take this long to make that decision so really surprised by it because I just thought it would happen earlier. If they didn't happen earlier than they would go ahead and get into 2020 21 season the play out and then evaluate co chairman. I guess they decided against that. Rumors coming out of Boston was that Herman was a guy as the head coach that didn't get along well with the players. The players didn't like his style of coaching. His approach was kind of like my way or the highway, and with this generation that just doesn't work with them. I think that's why they didn't perform up to the standards that everyone expected a Texas Longhorn team the to perform up to, and I think that's where they struggled in so many games Sarkeesian Younger coach. I think he gets along with this players a lot more lot better based on what I've heard, if that's going to be the guy we know he's a brilliant play caller. We talked earlier off camera, but our top five play call of the college football. He was on all of our list. So he I think he had that person. Either. He could go out recruit. He couldn't get guy's toe believe it what he's selling. Like we showed Indiana's coach, Those guys believing what he's selling. I think it's gonna be a great higher if it is Steve Sarkisian. Says surprised but he's not the only one who was surprised surprising to a lot of people. Even though I did hear whispers about this before the Alamo Bowl last week, your Crystal Connie Raised that statement. Their athletic director kind of an interesting way in December, said, You know, he is our coach right now. I'm encouraged by the way the program is going, it kind of leaving the door's somewhat open for a potential change, but this came as a shock to people on staff. People in the industry people very close to Tom Herman didn't know about this until literally 5 10 minutes before they put out their statement at Texas that he was out as the head coach, and so again, this is about opportunity. Do you don't make this change unless you know who you want and sources telling our own Chris Lowe and another reports that Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Steve Sarkisian will be the target here. They hope to finalize the deal with him. That is ESPN College football insider, Adam Rittenberg. Herman was 32 18 and his sports seasons at Texas. He mentioned the fact that Sarkisian is coming in Texas has now announced that former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian will would place Herman Shark Asian is 46 35 as a head coach and five seasons at Washington and part of two seasons at USC. Our Myron Metcalf says that the new coach has somewhat of a tough job ahead of him. If you're bringing in the coach and saying, you got to get all the five star kids from Texas good luck with that It's not that easy because there isn't sort of this legacy that these kids have grown up watching. But that to me is why you have these unrealistic expectations. Just recruit Texas kids. And that's all you need to do to compete at the highest level. That hasn't been reality in a long time for the Texas Longhorns, So if you really want Steve Sarkisian come in and make an impact. You have to start with reasonable expectations for this program going for Let's talk about something else. That's orange, but not of the burnt variety. Orange Bowl and Oh, did we get a good one in Miami Number five Texas A and M versus number 13, North Carolina Rob's back looking to throw.
U.S. consumer spending surges in July, but inflation remains tame
"Despite gathering clouds over the global economy. American consumers were still spending merrily in the u._s. In july consumer spending went up by a brisk six tenths of one percent bought and embedded inflation figure. You're favored by the guardians of interest rates at the fed held steady at one point six percent annualized below what the fed likes to see chris. Lowe is chief economist at f. t. and financial so you've got modest inflation which favours an interest rate cut the other thing when the fed looks at these numbers. They don't so much much care. What consumers are doing today. They're thinking about what they might do in the future and the one amish thing in the report is that income only rose rose point one percent. Maybe it's anomalous. Maybe it bounces back but that's another modest reason to think. The fed might cut rates because is there. Consumption forecast is likely going to be a little weaker