2 Burst results for "Chris Cassani"
Bloomberg Radio New York
"chris cassani" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Stocks are higher at the open, the S&P 500 is up three tens percent of 11 points at 4003. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a tenth of a percent or 45 points at 33,958, and the NASDAQ's up 7 tenths of a percent or 77 points at 11,173, ten year treasury up one at 1130 seconds. 3.38%, they yield on the two year 4.08%. Nymex crude oil is up to a quarter percent of a dollar 81 at $81 91 99 cents a barrel. Comax gold of 9 tenths of a percent or $17 at 1927 announced the Euro 1.0883 against the dollar, the N one 27.64. Tom and greedy. Karen thanks so much. Critic gooped in for Paul Sweeney. He's where he's on a beach somewhere. He's in Aruba. Aruba. He got the fun assignment. I've never been there. He's reporting. He's, yes, reporting on his course. Other conditions and really testing out the area. Testing out the area. It's an experiment. It's a science experiment. He's probably with a points guy. I could have gooped in for Paul swinney. I'm Tom keen and these are interesting times again where the equity market lift that we see, and I said a couple days ago, I said, where in God's name is chrysanthemum get him in. Chris costante joins us now, MAI capital equity strategies. He's aged through 2022, but joins us right now. Chris, let's just start with where are you right now because you're very supple about the structure of your portfolio where are you in the equity market? Well, Tom, I think the market now is best understood as a horror movie with two villains. And villain number one inflation looks like he's going to be subdued. So the market's happy, but they're forgetting about villain number two, which is economic slowdown. And for that reason, we positioned our portfolio defensively. We have more cash than we usually do. We're taking some profits in this strength. We've also moved from digital world more towards really economy world. And that helped us a lot in the second half of 2022. And I think that theme will play out again in 23. So a little more defensive, a little more value. That's where we are. Am I correct that in the massive set of uncertainties that we have that what I call the choice set is diminished, and that Chris cassani walks in, you know, he's three weeks in Aruba, whatever. Chris Christie walks into MAI and goes, I got fewer things I'm comfortable with. Is that right? I think that's another way of saying what I like to say, which is the hurdle rate is higher. I think that's right we're buying fewer things to buy. Now, having said that, there's stuff that has been given up for dead that are still strong ongoing concerns terrific cash flow. So it might surprise you, Tom that we just thought meta. Because meta is trading like it's about to fall off a cliff and go out of business. When in reality, the problem, but it also has terrific cash flow and the selling ten times there. What's matter? I believe it's formally known as Facebook. Oh, okay. That guy. Chris. We're a little rusty over here. But Chris, I want to talk to you about something that David Solomon said over at the world economic form at Davos this morning. Of course, CEO of Goldman saying that the chances of a soft landing in the U.S. and Europe are looking more and more likely that it seems to be a growing consensus on Wall Street, but what's really changed for that to grow. Well, it's interesting. That gets to the point of what if the fed hosted a recession, but nobody came. That's kind of what I'm thinking. And so they want to slow the economy. They slow it a little, but not enough to tip us into recession. Having said that, it's really hard to thread that needle because the hikes will take a year to two years of lag before they really take effect. So I don't really think we've seen the slowing. And the market is acting like we're going to have a soft landing, but that doesn't mean it's true. What is a soft landing? I mean, I got such a respect for your value investing. You know what I mean? Value, it can be growth, value investing. But just the timeliness, when you hear people and bow ties blather about soft landing, what does it exactly mean, Chris? Well, you know, Tom to me that means GDP won't drop for two quarters in a row. But I think it's also important for your listeners to distinguish between what's going on in the economy, whether it lands softly or not. And whether the market has already discounted even a somewhat hard land, which I think you could make a case that, wow, we were down almost 20% last year. That's even though earnings, by the way, were up 6 or 7% last year. So we discounted a lot of some kind of landing. And so I would think even if we don't have a totally soft landing, there's still some bargains out. But the basis of that argument is simply that we're not going to see a repeat of the 70s and 80s that inflation is on a one way track down. How can you and Wall Street as a consensus be so sure that we're not going to see another rise in inflation, maybe not immediately, but in the next two, three years. Creates a great question. And I do think there's a case to be made that this is not your father or your grandfather's inflation. Because there were very particular and short lived factors that caused the great inflation of 2022, of course the stimulus and the supply chain disruptions were the two big ones. And they're kind of like the pig in the python. They're going away. So I'm somewhat hopeful that this is not the systemic structural inflation of the 70s. And I think most economists would agree with that so far. Well, I think one of the issues also is we're assuming that these fed cuts that are priced into the market is completely the wrong base case. And that's kind of seems almost like a dislocation, but again, I'm going to ask, why is that so wrong? Well, I do think you need to take your own palette as word. While I think that we're almost there on inflation, I don't foresee any rate cut this year. So I think they will stay high. And by the way, quote unquote normal, when folks say, well, when are we going to get back to normal? I'm saying we just got back to Norma. Mister funds rate is now about what the average has been for the last 40 years. So get used to it. And there's plenty of great gears for the equity markets where we've had fed funds at 5. Mortgages at 6 and 7. There we go. We're just going to have to make the transition. And I think that will be the story of 23. Yeah, the Red Sox will have a short stop. We'll have to see how that goes. As well, let me do a data check here with Chris cassander, MAI, critic Gupta and Tom. I'm going to go right to the bond space where the economic data with a vengeance ten year yield in .15
Bloomberg Radio New York
"chris cassani" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"From across the aisle with New York Democrat Kirsten gillibrand partnering with the Wyoming lawmaker to finish and introduce the bill in the coming weeks The bill will cover a range of issues including banking taxes privacy and consumer protection and Thailand's biggest bank by market value has become the latest lenders seeking to capitalize on the metaverse craze SCB ten X will become the first banking group entity globally to develop a headquarters in the sandbox of blockchain based virtual platform and that's your Bloomberg crypto update I'm Jeff Bellinger Karen All right Jeff thank you and that's a Bloomberg business flash Tom and Paul Karen thanks so much Karen Great to have you back Thanks Three or four weeks It takes these long breaks and who knows where she goes Tucker was shadow Oh I know Yeah Don't like a day This felt like a day Karen thank you so much best day to checks Literally without exaggeration in the world Post training in time keen Right now Chris cassani joins us MAI capital Chris yield up price down bear market and bonds What do equity do What the equities do when a given index is down 8% in a bond world Oh I'm sorry Yeah we've got to I'm sorry Let me bring in Emily because I thought we had we do But we have Emily Wilkins is on She was talking taxes I think mister Biden is talking about taxing the billionaires Emily a 20% tax on billionaires It sounds good to me I'm not in that camp but it sounds like a revenue source to me What's the story Yeah it is going to be a new source 360 billion billion is the amount that the government expects to get in revenue If this goes into effect And this is part of the larger budget proposal that The White House is putting out today Obviously Congress that the one thing they got to do every year is past money to fund the government and that all begins when The White House sends their proposal to Congress Now usually Congress takes a look at this proposal and goes okay well that's very nice mister president and then goes off and does their own thing But it's a good way to sort of get a sense of where The White House stands and what the administration is thinking And what president Joe Biden is thinking right now is that he needs to start appealing to more moderate Democrats You're seeing a very fiscally conservative budget for democratic president the request is going to show a 1 trillion reduction in deficit spending over the coming decade It's going to go down 1.3 trillion from this year alone and a key part of this is this so called billionaire minimum income tax The only reason I introduced Christopher sante instead of Emily Wilkins is I finally discovered someone with a bracket worse than mine exactly Emily good morning I'm so sorry to not introduce you in the proper Bloomberg surveillance way The quiet word here Emily will be W wealth tax is that what they're talking about a wealth tax Well I mean the poll tested number that they ran past everyone to make sure it would be popular as though is the billionaire minimum income tax But yes I mean this is a tax that is aimed at the wealthy And this is actually something if you think about it that a lot of Democrats do have buy in and support We've seen pretty good polling among the American public saying that wealthy need to pay their fair share and perhaps even more important than that You've seen senator Joe Manchin come out Are we going to tax unrealized gains Cut to the chase I mean not that I have any but yes the idea is to tax both the income and unrealized capital gains of U.S. households worth more than a 100 million as part of this proposal that's going to be put out there So that's the Supreme Court Is that seriously They got to pass it If they pass it does it go through a judicial process We're going to tax unrealized gains That is what they're saying at this point I mean and let's be clear there are skeptics to this idea The powerful head of the House ways means committee chairman Richard Neal a Democrat that he says that you know he's proposed this income check Shirt surcharge He's a little skeptical about this idea that's been put out right now So we'll even see I mean this might not go any further than the Biden administration coming out and proposing it Congress might take one look at this and say thanks but no thanks or decide to go in a different route But it shows really the end of the day President Biden wants to continue to try and figure out a way to tax the wealthy and he's now looking at other options to do it then that social tax and spending bill the build back better which at this point the future is very uncertain on That's kind of where I wanted to go Emily what can this president this administration get done in Congress as it relates to domestic policy here I mean obviously everybody's been focused on Ukraine and Russia but in terms of domestic policy what can this president get done Well that's a really great question I mean at this point we keep hearing that there are these potential efforts to move certain aspects.