35 Burst results for "Chief Economist"

US economy shrank at record-breaking 33% rate last quarter

AP News Radio

00:50 sec | 6 d ago

US economy shrank at record-breaking 33% rate last quarter

"The U. S. economy shrank at a record breaking thirty three percent rate last quarter as the virus shuttered businesses and triggered layoffs Ocana miss were expecting an ugly number for Q. two and that's what they got that by far the biggest contraction in the economy over one quarter that we've seen since the Great Depression PNC financial services group chief economist Gus voce who says the third quarter GDP will be much better the good news is is that the number will be better in the third quarter and we will see the economy returned to growth but the level of economic activities can they continue to be much lower than it was at the end of twenty nineteen the bottom line as long as we have very high levels of cases and I think it's going to be very difficult to see a strong economic recovery showing out there Washington

Gus Voce Washington Chief Economist
Jobless claims rise as cutoff of extra $600 benefit nears

AP 24 Hour News

00:31 sec | Last week

Jobless claims rise as cutoff of extra $600 benefit nears

"Claims jumped to 1.4 million last week. That's the first time we've seen an increase in claims since late Mark, PNC chief economist Gus Fouchet. It could be that we're seeing more businesses closed down. Because either states are restricting economic activity to control the spread of the virus, or simply that consumers aren't going out. The Labor Department says that roughly 32 million people are receiving unemployment benefits, although some economists say that figure is likely closer to 25 million. Shelly

Chief Economist Shelly Gus Fouchet PNC Labor Department
Jobless claims up for first time in months as COVID-19 spreads

AP 24 Hour News

00:36 sec | Last week

Jobless claims up for first time in months as COVID-19 spreads

"Claims jumped last week for the first time in months, Shelly Adler runs the numbers weekly jobless claims jumped to 1.4 million last week. That's the first time we've seen an increase in claims since late March. PNC chief economist Gus Fouchet. It could be that we're seeing more businesses closed down. Because either states are restricting economic activity to control the spread of the virus, or simply that consumers aren't going out. The Labor Department says that roughly 32 million people are receiving unemployment benefits, although some economists say that figure is likely closer to 25 million. Shelly

Shelly Adler Shelly Chief Economist Gus Fouchet PNC Labor Department
US home sales jump 20.7% in rebound from 3-month slump, but shortage of properties for sale could hinder further gains

AP 24 Hour News

00:35 sec | Last week

US home sales jump 20.7% in rebound from 3-month slump, but shortage of properties for sale could hinder further gains

"Realtors words says sales jumped nearly 21% in June. Demand has remained strong among buyers who have managed to whether the downturn and record low mortgage rates have helped sustain affordability. But purchases air still down 11% from a year ago. Realtor words chief economist Lawrence Yun Says sales were down about 20% from their pre pandemic levels. The resurgence of covert 19 and a shrinking supply of homes for sale make further gains in the housing market. Questionable. I'm Mike happen. Stone tools from a Mexican cave suggest people might have

Lawrence Yun Chief Economist
New vehicle sales dip as coronavirus continues to spread

Newsradio 950 WWJ 24 Hour News

00:45 sec | 2 weeks ago

New vehicle sales dip as coronavirus continues to spread

"Tells us that we have been seeing some troubling sales trends. After two months of somewhat steady rises, New vehicle sales are dipping a bit while the use market is going great guns. COX Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke says. For last week use sales were up 4%. Well, new retail sales were down about 25%. Inventory is a problem, particularly in the new market. But judging by the activities so far in July, it looks like the use market has a bit more gas in the tank to deliver a more solid alive then, and we initially thought another concern, says smoke the rising number of covert cases, particularly in markets that had been seeing strong sales. Jeff Gilbert W W. J pretty Go night, 50 straight out of

Jonathan Smoke Jeff Gilbert W W. J Chief Economist Cox Automotive
China imposes sanctions on U.S. senators Rubio, Cruz over Xinjiang advocacy

Marketplace Morning Report with David Brancaccio

01:10 min | 3 weeks ago

China imposes sanctions on U.S. senators Rubio, Cruz over Xinjiang advocacy

"Hungary, Janus Henderson, who did this survey reckons? That's going to be about nine trillion cumulus, if speaking of debt around four companies now debt debt by itself is not good or bad. It just depends whether you can repay it or not. The authors of the forecast also say that debt has been going up faster than prophets of growing over the past few years. That is worrying, but as you alluded to interest rates around the world have been so low. Is this debt pile necessarily a problem for these companies? Well the lower interest rates off the easier. It is to pay that money back, but at some point interest rates will have to go, and that could be a problem for companies now. The worry is that when company stock coming out of the bad times caused by the corona virus. Whether they of making prophet or not. They still have to pay the interest in payback the debt. It's interesting. The chief economist of the International Monetary Fund last week was saying that perhaps governments should think again about lending money to so many companies to help save them, but think more in terms of perhaps buying shares or coming up with financial instruments that are more light buying shares equity say

Janus Henderson International Monetary Fund Hungary Chief Economist
1.3 million workers seek US jobless aid as layoffs remain historically high amid spike in coronavirus cases

AP 24 Hour News

00:45 sec | 3 weeks ago

1.3 million workers seek US jobless aid as layoffs remain historically high amid spike in coronavirus cases

"1.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week The Surgeon Cove in 19 cases in some parts of the country has muddled the job market. In the beginning we had, you know, we had huge layoffs, and then we had a big decline in layoffs over subsequent weeks. Now we have still have a high level of layoffs. But it's pretty much the same from week to week. Gus Fouche, chief economist with PNC Financial Services Group. If we saw the number of cases decline if we weren't worried about I see you capacity, I think that would help. But unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be on the horizon. Some good news. Who's the total number of people who are receiving jobless benefits dropped by 700,000. That suggests that some companies are continuing to rehire workers. Shelly

Surgeon Cove Pnc Financial Services Group Chief Economist Gus Fouche Shelly
Zandi predicts job numbers will be "meaningfully worse" in July amid COVID spikes

KYW 24 Hour News

05:18 min | Last month

Zandi predicts job numbers will be "meaningfully worse" in July amid COVID spikes

"The US added 4.8 million jobs in June, but that data was compiled before the Corona virus spikes that started mid month. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, joins us now from Philadelphia this morning. Good morning to you, Mark. Good morning, Margaret. You had already predicted this would be the shortest but arguably most severe recession in history. What did we learn from the data We got this week. Well, it was good about as good as you could expect. Almost five million jobs were created during a month. That's on top of 2.7 million in the month of May. So we've gotten about 1/3 of the jobs back that we lost in. In March and April. Unemployment declined properly measured. It's about 12% hard to imagine that's a good number, but it is a good number of compared to 20% which we got in April. That was the peak Here's the thing, Margaret the unfortunate thing, you know, Thie. Unexpected, better. Economic news is the result of the very rapid increase in business. Reopening is too fast, because now The virus is re intensifying and the pandemic is raging in a lot of key states across the country. They're pulling back, and that's not in the data yet. That's coming down the road, so I fear That the best economic news was in June. And as we looked at July and going forward, the job statistics were goingto look meaningfully meaningful. E worse. The pandemic is a real issue now. And these are thes states that air seeing these spikes are important to the U. S. Economy. Very large economies. Taxes California, Florida. How much do you expect to see consumers pull back They aren't there big. I mean, if you had a California, Texas, Florida, let's throw in Arizona. You're You know, you're not talking about over fist of the economy, probably closer to 1/3 of the economy right there. Andi. I do expect we're going to see pull backs by businesses in those states. And here's here's a saying it's not just businesses there directly impact is not just restaurants and retailers. In all businesses are going to be nervous about the uncertainty that this all creates. And so they're going to come even more cautious and hiring back workers. And then of course, you've got consumers When I you know we were. We already had one hand on the bunker. I can't imagine that many of us are going to go right back into the bunker is a result of all this and wait this out so This is very disconcerting. And if Dr Fauci is right and we're headed towards 100,000 per day, I think the prospects of going back into recession are pretty high. What we know, certainly at the White House and on Capitol Hill, they're going to have to take a look at what kind of emergency aid will need to be provided. In light of some of this changing information that we're receiving, in your view. Do you think Congress needs to provide some kind of help to American families? 80 million Americans have Children under the age of 18. They can't necessarily send them back to school in the summer. Maybe not in the fall. Childcare is also in question. How important is it to address that specific challenge? Critical. It's absolutely critical. You know if Congress and administration don't get it together in the next few weeks before Congress goes away on its August recess, I fear we're going back into recession because Thie economy needs a lot of help. And you, you point out there's a lot of even though unemployment back down if you add up folks that are unemployed people who have gotten ours cut there so working, but they got their hours. Cut. Then consider those folks that are still working. Haven't gotten your hours cut got their pay cut. You're talking about 1/3 of all American workers. They're still struggling here. And if they don't get some additional help on atyou know the the unemployment insurance expansion that was part of the original help to the economy is going away in 2 to 3 weeks. So if Congress administration don't figure out how to provide more help to these folks, they're going absolutely no choice but to stop paying bills, cut spending and the economy is really gonna struggle. Here's the other thing. State. Local governments are hemorrhaging red ink, right, So every every state government across the country doesn't matter whether you're a Republican state of a democratic state. You're hemorrhaging reading and they're slashing payrolls and these are Middle income jobs, their teachers their fire. They're policed their emergency responders. These were the kinds of folks we need working at any time, but particularly in a pandemic, So it's just absolutely critical, critical that Congress doesn't take the wrong message from the June jobs number. And says, Okay, Mission accomplished. We're OK here for far from it. They need to provide a lot more help in very soon. But what about the specific child care issue? How does how does Congress Well, they're your right. They have to provide support through Tio support for child care on the other side of that during the pandemic once schools during the summer and once when school if schools don't reopen. So there has to be additional support their you know, there's different ways of providing this for direct aid to people who are unemployed, or, you know, through the through unemployment. Suren CE were through the tax code. There's a child tax credit that could be used to make it refundable two different household so that they can get cash back if you know if they have child care needs. But you know all those things need to be part of any additional support that Congress comes forward with. And hopefully again. They comport with that quickly

Congress Margaret Mark Zandi United States Moody Chief Economist California Philadelphia Dr Fauci White House Arizona Florida Texas
Chief economist: With outlook hazy, economy needs support

Weekend Edition Sunday

03:28 min | Last month

Chief economist: With outlook hazy, economy needs support

"Guest, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund in the wake of this pandemic, the IMF says the global economic outlook is far worse than previously thought. And recovery will take a lot longer for those living in poor countries. That will mean greater income inequality. More debt and more poverty. Geeta Gopinath is the chief economist for the IMF, and she joins us Now. Welcome to the program. Thank you for having me on your show. And we also have NPR's gyms are Oli, who covers economics will also be asking questions. Good morning to you. Good morning, Geeta Gopinath. You predict a much deeper recession this year and slower recovery in the next. What caused you to revise your April estimates so drastically when two big reasons. One is, If you look at the duration of the Loch towns in the first half of this year, they have bean longer than we anticipated. And the intensity has been greater. And secondly, because we don't have a medical solution, yet we expect to see longer, more persistent social distancing into the second half of this year. You wrote this past week that 75% of countries are reopening. But in the absence of a medical solution, the strength of the recovery is highly uncertain. Did you not know that before, though, was there some belief early on that this was going to be Shorter, considering the fact that the illness was deemed to be serious and global and reach. I think what we certainly expected it was that they would not be a vaccine anytime in 2020 But on the other hand, there was an anticipation that as countries expanded, the healthcare facilities did enough testing. Tracing had enough protective equipment. Then there would be much better prepared to deal with this health crisis. I think as off now we can say that countries are still behind the curve here. Which is why we expect this to be a bumpy ride going forward. I'm going to press you a little bit on the debt that the poor nations they're taking on because we've seen in the past that it literally takes years upon years to get out from underneath that debt, and we really are in a place where there won't be many places to turn to for those poor countries to find help. It is going to be a serious concern for foreign nations who will come out of this crisis with higher levels off debt, and the solution for that will be a multilateral support in the form off. Death relief debt restructuring. Concessional financing concessional aid. I mean, I don't see any other way for these economies to be able to come back up to growth without support from the international community. China is a huge lender, especially to developing economies. How cooperative is China being right now in terms of rescheduling debt? China is a part of this G 20 initiated to provide debt relief on DH, So you know they are working with the international institutions to help in this respect. You know, I suspect much more will be needed and this is from all countries was just from China for the poor nations. Onda also for a much longer period of time than till the end of this year.

Geeta Gopinath China International Monetary Fund Chief Economist OLI NPR
The Fed begins purchases of up to $250 billion in individual corporate bonds

Marketplace

01:56 min | Last month

The Fed begins purchases of up to $250 billion in individual corporate bonds

"Right so as promised what the fed is doing and it is doing a lot among the latest the central bank started buying corporate bonds today that is not new was announced a couple months ago but it's a big deal as the fed does what it can to backstop companies and their employees market place Nancy Marshall cancer explains how it's gonna work when a company wants to borrow money it can issue corporate bonds the buyers of those bonds are lending those companies money now the fed is going to buy a broad cross section of corporate bonds if they meet certain standards they must been rated as investment grade that is less risky as of March before the coronavirus lockdown started Christopher Whalen is chair of Whalen global advisors you're the fed is trying to be helpful because they are really uncertain about what's going to happen later this year when one says the fed wants to be sure companies have all the money they need to whether the pandemic the fed is also making this program anonymous just buying up corporate bonds without anybody asking it to that avoids any stigma from companies requesting fed help Catherine judges are Columbia University law professor there's always a concern that if you're looking to the federal reserve as opposed to the market for financing that you might be revealing something about how desperate you are for financing the thinking is if companies have all the financing they need at reasonable rates with the fed buying their bonds they won't need to lay off more workers Frank no tap is chief economist at CoreLogic the purpose is to help these companies remain good employers in the marketplace stand on their feet not lay people off and hopefully bring people back into the into the work force and if a company isn't able to stay on its feet and defaults on the bonds the fed bought chairman Jay Powell can turn into an emergency fund set up by the treasury department to backstop the

FED Christopher Whalen Whalen Global Advisors Professor Chief Economist Corelogic Jay Powell Treasury Department Nancy Marshall Catherine Columbia University Chairman
The Future of the Energy Sector

BTV Simulcast

06:27 min | Last month

The Future of the Energy Sector

"The energy sector and the region's economies OB battling both covered nineteen and the oil price crash as tensions between market forces and management in the oil sector increase the Arab petroleum investment corporation's annualized no presents a weakening landscape and possible merges on the horizon let's bring it later Ben Ali she's the chief economist at Arab petroleum investments corporation they're always great to get your take on what the future looks like for us we we drilled into the numbers and and you talk about the private sector I suppose this is the big risk group was just talking about that about capital the private sector's share of energy investment is going to drop by twenty percent this year versus twenty two percent last year what are the biggest risks from not dissipation of private sector investment hello good good good morning minus good morning user I'm so I'm so glad to be with you this morning we've noticed a major actually degree professional degrees in a private investments in the energy sector indeed and that's not I don't think that's something that is of primary events in the region because in this region this crisis came a time where the private sector was differently feeble and and and why I'm sure I laid out today is a landmark moment over the last twenty four hours have been because you had Saudi Aramco executing the acquisition of a seventy percent stake in Saudi basic industries block trades worth sixty nine billion dollars huge transaction but maybe a bit of a scene setter of what is to come in terms of mergers in terms of acquisition right I mean it's it's good that you are reminded us of that acquisition but that's something that was in the cards before the current crisis I think what's twenty twenty is big enough is is a global reset you will have you wouldn't have to expect a restructuring of the value chains I would say in favor of the producers which are in the best physical position and and social media Ramco and others are are different in that position and also the players are facing the least leveraged answer twenty twenty with the beast yeah that's definitely something that's that's we are looking at and these will be also the same players that would be the best targets in terms of acquisitions so you would have in the energy sector overall and the associated I would say petrochemicals and service sectors as well more pressure to preserve a longtime fight fish increase up to to preserve evidence as well so that explains the there were potential wave of mergers and acquisitions that we can see which are June to the twenty twenty crisis is as we mentioned all reporting investments are being cuts and that's something that is I would say quite similar to what we've seen and different in the previous downturns the only difference this year is it started in the first it right away back in the twenty fourteen twenty sixteen downtown if you remember a user it took a couple of years to see those degrees of twenty five point twenty point twenty five percent year on year in capital investment the state this year resting their heads globally in twenty twenty and in the region of the oil and gas sector is the one that takes him most of the major hates because in in in theory you would see a utilities and renewables they can the most hated but this year that the upstream I would say and on the downstream part of the business we take most of most of the hits we might see and can I just ask you can I just ask you on on that line of thought on the on anime I would rather go could it be because typically this MNA upstream and dine street is within borders it is within national parameters to deliver those efficiencies through MNA what is the probability of something much more radical happening and cross border Annonay within the oil and gas going forward as a result of the pressure from cove it this year I that's a great question mine is I think the probability is higher and that's something that we have been tracking in at last year actually before Kobe nineteen crisis starts it because we already started to see the change of the nature of the relationship between institutional investors as a whole including the largest ones like this summer twelve fines and the energy sector so the energy sector as a whole is is coming to twenty twenty with squeezed margins across the value chain I mean I can give you the example of a less than ten percent to the specific parts of the gas value chain where we can still see robust fundamentals and robust demand going forward and also the fact that the energy sector over the last decade has been delivering very very long wait times due to investors and shareholders compared to other sectors so I wouldn't be surprised if you see including differently including cross borders MNAs in in the future and the emergence of new business models because I think most of the nineteen one thing that we learned is our specialization of with not to be the rights of business strategy to go or and a bit more diversification and integration across the value chain to be able to to balance the risks yeah and and and have a comfortable second goal of the value chain in and not so good so you will see that measure our larger players more integrated and ready yeah after all I would say the problems are that you will get a circle in nineteen

Home Prices Rose In The First Quarter

WBBM Evening News

00:36 sec | 2 months ago

Home Prices Rose In The First Quarter

"Home prices rose in April but could be down by next spring and inventory of entry level homes has taken a dive nationally home values rose five point four percent annually in April a sharp increase from the four and a half percent annual increase in March and according to CoreLogic Chicago metro area was up one point eight percent compared to last April the inventory of entry level homes for sale fell twenty five percent this April compared to last year CoreLogic chief economist Dr Frank note have telling us inventories been particularly lean even at the start of this year prior to the pandemic once the pandemic hit

Corelogic Chicago Corelogic Chief Economist Dr Frank
Esper opposes using Insurrection Act for law enforcement

AP News Radio

00:41 sec | 2 months ago

Esper opposes using Insurrection Act for law enforcement

"A president new report trump shows has there were talked far about fewer using layoffs the active last duty month military related to to the quell corona virus violent protests payroll processor nationwide ADP but says his defense two point secretary eight million says jobs now were is lost not in the may right time experts Pentagon were predicting chief more mark than esper nine says million using layoffs active duty since troops March to when perform the pandemic law enforcement intensified duties should the be number a last of job losses resort is twenty and only two point in the most six urgent million and dire the bulk of situations of that was in April he says America this is report not raises even optimism one of those situations job losses now won't be and as bad he is as against feared invoking when the labor the department insurrection report act is released which would Friday allow the president moody's to use analytics those troops chief economist as law mark enforcement Zandi says esper barring has a second authorized wave of sending cases several the active coronavirus duty army recession units two bases appears to just only lasted outside of three Washington months if he they're adds needed it could be but the they shortest have not recession yet been on call record to action and among the most Sager severe made on I the met Washington Donahue

ADP Secretary Pentagon America President Trump Moody Chief Economist Zandi Esper Washington Donahue Washington Sager
Survey: 2.76 million layoffs in May, far fewer than expected

AP News Radio

00:41 sec | 2 months ago

Survey: 2.76 million layoffs in May, far fewer than expected

"A new report shows there were far fewer layoffs last month related to the corona virus payroll processor ADP says two point eight million jobs were lost in may experts were predicting more than nine million layoffs since March when the pandemic intensified the number of job losses is twenty two point six million the bulk of that was in April this report raises optimism job losses won't be as bad as feared when the labor department report is released Friday moody's analytics chief economist mark Zandi says barring a second wave of cases the coronavirus recession appears to only lasted three months he adds it could be the shortest recession on record and among the most severe I met Donahue

ADP Moody Donahue Labor Department Chief Economist Mark Zandi
Survey: 2.76 million layoffs in May, far fewer than expected

AP News Radio

00:41 sec | 2 months ago

Survey: 2.76 million layoffs in May, far fewer than expected

"A new report shows there were far fewer layoffs last month related to the corona virus payroll processor ADP says two point eight million jobs were lost in may experts were predicting more than nine million layoffs since March when the pandemic intensified the number of job losses is twenty two point six million the bulk of that was in April this report raises optimism job losses won't be as bad as feared when the labor department report is released Friday moody's analytics chief economist mark Zandi says barring a second wave of cases the coronavirus recession appears to only lasted three months he adds it could be the shortest recession on record and among the most severe I met Donahue

ADP Moody Donahue Labor Department Chief Economist Mark Zandi
#WFH Forever?

The Indicator from Planet Money

02:04 min | 2 months ago

#WFH Forever?

"Hey everyone and stacey here this is the indicator from planet money even before the coronavirus pandemic the share of people working from home in the US had already been growing but the acceleration that we've seen in just the past. Few months has been pretty incredible and the numbers can be hard to pin down. But at least according to one survey from economists the share of workers in the US that had been working remotely before the pandemic was about fifteen percent but by last month it was close to fifty percent. Roughly half of all workers are outside of their workplace now. So that's a massive increase in what we're really seeing is. It's a giant experiment with remote work to see how it goes for people. That is Adam. The chief economist at up a company that connects freelance workers with the businesses. Who Need Freelance Workers? And I think that remote work requires a lot of sort of what it comes called learning by doing. Which is that. You don't really know how to do it until you do it. Here is what Adam found in recent study of his. Let's say you compare yourself against another worker in a very similar position as yours so that someone around your same age same sex in your same industry your same level of education and even someone who lives in the same state but there's this one difference you had the option of working from home during coronavirus of the person did not well. You had about thirty three percent lower chance of losing your job then that other person because of course you could keep working and now a lot of companies like twitter and facebook are changing their plans for the future announcing that some of their workers will be able to work from home permanently even after the coronavirus pandemic passes and since they've been forced to do this experiment. I think a lot of them are GONNA learn. It works a lot better than they thought it would. And that we will see sort of an acceleration of a trend that was already underway for longtime time but aside from a few high profile announcements we just have not had much good data on how much the overall trend of working from home has accelerated because of the pandemic until now

Adam United States Chief Economist Stacey Twitter Facebook
More Than 2.4 Million More Apply for Jobless Aid

AP 24 Hour News

00:36 sec | 2 months ago

More Than 2.4 Million More Apply for Jobless Aid

"Another two point four million people applied for unemployment last week pushing the wrong number of people out of work to nearly thirty nine million cisa coronavirus force millions of businesses to close their doors PNC financial chief economist Gus poche says even when the economy starts to recover businesses may be slow to rehire even if consumers are spending the level of spending is still much lower than it was in February and early March and so businesses may not see the need to require even if the economy is growing so I think the recovery in the labor market is likely to lag the recovery in consumer spending in the recovery in business investment

Gus Poche PNC Chief Economist
U.S. job market suffers its worst month in history

Mark Reardon

00:21 sec | 3 months ago

U.S. job market suffers its worst month in history

"The pandemic continues to have a devastating impact on the nation's economy last month was easily the worst month in terms of job losses in the country's history with twenty point five million jobs vanishing PNC financial services chief economist Gus Faucher Hey just the scale of job losses we've seen over the past couple of months is simply unprecedented in U. S.

PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher U. S
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday

#hottakeoftheday

13:25 min | 3 months ago

"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday

"Is going on vacation? It is dear w here for another episode of the heartache of the day podcast today. I'm very fortunate to be joined by Jay. Bryson who is the acting chief economist for Wells Fargo Bank and his base in North Carolina? J. Welcome to the show. How are you today great? Thanks for thanks for having meter so so North Carolina big basketball town. How are you feeling about the fact that there may not be there is no final four? Obviously no no march madness what. What was the vibe of of the state so so I'm a North Carolina Tar heel. I WENT TO UNC. Many my children and also did as well and actually it was kind of good news because we were going to make it to the big dance this year. So our streak up to like fifteen sixteen. A big dances remains intact but Yeah but but now it's obviously you know not having the NC Double A. Tournament. Iryna basketball crazy sort of places you know. It was tough but Just all sorts of sports. You know it's Things got shut down now. But that's all open and and hopefully things will start to get back to the good and and so we were chatting just before we went on air here about Where North Carolina is in terms of the stay at home order and South Carolina's obviously opened up with Tennessee. Atlanta Georgia has opened up as well. Where where's where's North Carolina in that spectrum of opening backup right so the governor Re a few weeks ago extended stay at home orders until may eighth And that's the latest so whereas South Carolina you know is starting to gradually reopen some of those other states. You mentioned we're not dairy that said It does seem like cases here as many other states are they're still going up at a decreasing rate. The curb is flattening here and we'll sleet and we'll see what happens going forward so one thing I did read today is that there's a Nascar race here in Charlotte Over Memorial Day Coca Cola. Six hundred they always APP and in the paper today. The governor said a assumes that that race will go forward doubts. Whether or not there's actually fans in the stands. I probably not GONNA be in front of nobody five. They may in fact the letter. That's I mean that's great and and I'd read earlier that the first professional sport that was at least coming back after cancelling was the PGA tour right and and It it certainly seems like people are are getting ready to get back to life. It'll be interesting so so talk to me a little bit about your background. And what it takes to become chief economist. And I think I think from context a lot of energy professionals who listen to this show are thinking about a career change after the crazy crazy. Double Black Swan and chief economist. Right so So I've been doing this for a number of years. Now I have a background did so. I have a economics in earlier by career I taught at university is a University of Alabama moved to Zuhdi Federal Reserve in Washington. Dc spent a number of years there and then about twenty years ago ourselves. I came to at the time. The bank was first union which became more covert. Now Wells. Fargo in you know I've been here for about twenty years now and So started out as our global economists of watching what's happening in the rest of the World Dawson there's a lot going on obviously here in the United States and I had to keep a track and then as chief economist retired about two years ago so I moved into that role. So so how over your twenty years. So I'm just thinking going back. It was about two thousand so so you would have been in a similar role kind of around the tech bubble burst and the Y2K. The most similar pandemic was that all the computers. Were GonNA end January. I was going to happen in Y. Two K. was GONNA melt down the world than it was sort of a non event but it coincided with the tech bubble. You know sort of took a long time to recover their the great recession in two thousand eight two thousand nine and then now this how does this compare to those events both similarities and differences? So this is a cliche now to use this word by us it anyway and this is unprecedented. We have never seen an economy. Just completely stop an altogether young tech bubble when you go back and you look at it. That turned out to be very mild. Recession was depression for the tech industry but for the overall economy wasn't much of her session at off of thought that the global financial crisis was once a generation. Not Lifetime sort of thing. This is completely different. This is where every part of the economy just shuts down and even as bad as October. Two thousand. Eight was Dench adapt so. That's the biggest difference This time around. I think some similarities. Are you know if you think back to two thousand eight you had? The government got very active decorated. Tom Ridge it for Federal Reserve Rolling out all sorts of programs and twelve years. Later we're kind of doing the same SORTA policy response. And so you know I think the good news of this world a lesson of the Great Depression you know the Great Depression. There was a recession. That was starting in the summer of nineteen twenty nine that turned into the Great Depression because of utter failure of policy. I'm Federal Reserve. Did Not do its job. As the lender of last resort fiscal policy in this country didn't really turn stimulant of until nineteen thirty three nineteen thirty four not the depths of great so we we've learned that lesson that when the economy in the private sector Covet grinds to a halt the other public sector has a role to prevent something even worse from happening. It is from from a context standpoint. Nineteen you know. We do have these major events in history and I think of one thousand nine hundred eighty nine nineteen eighty seven two thousand eight and two thousand twenty as sort of the big ones. I don't I don't know that I've missed any for walk with my wife. 'cause that's what you now. Do you go for a walk with family members during the day and we were looking at from nineteen thousand nine hundred. Nineteen thirty two. The Dow fell from about three sixty. Two thirty is at the bottom which cheer point on Fiscal Stimulus. So maybe talk high level Before we dive into the details about some of the functions of the of the Fed how you think about their use of the balance sheet and you know tarp as I recall which felt like a huge number at the time was like eight hundred billion if I remember correctly and we've already in terms of liquidity and fed action have already taken multitudes more and and as a buyer of last resort of municipal bonds and high yield bonds and treasuries and multiple levels of stimulus. What is the role of the Fed in the economy? And how does the economy? Broadly work for those. Who aren't as familiar with it before we dive into the specifics of what comes next. So the Fed is the lender of last resort with. Nobody is there to to lend. That's where that's what the Federal Reserve is is charged with doing. And so what they're doing now is is so he may remember the quantitative easing programs her after their young well what has been known up to this point as the great recession where they're buying government bonds mortgage back securities. They started doing that. But they're also as you got as you mentioned are also starting to buy corporal corporate bonds so high yield bonds in terms of exchange traded funds and municipal securities as well. And so what they're doing is a lot of these markets in recent weeks or back in back in late March Really started to grind to a halt. And if there's no trading in these markets witty and justice system just starts to completely dry out we are a capital markets based economy a lot of lending occurs through the capital markets through the corporate bond markets. So at the Fed is doing is by purchasing. Those things are starting to re liquify those markets and we've seen Issuance in the investment grade market. Just explode recently. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Fed if some of these bonds at their buying holding on the balance if they if they go bad you have the false then the Fed is looking at credit losses. And maybe sooner or later Congress would have to step in and make the quote solid. The Fed became technically insolvent because his losses. So they're really treading in some some really use. This word again unprecedented. And they're all. Potentially there could be some political blowback from all of this if some of these things that they're doing right now we're starting to go badly so so I wanna I wanNA take it a little bit in pieces and I'm Gonna I'M GONNA set of context and then I just want to get your feedback. So as said March I remember it was about March. Twenty third like the the market ceased to act and think for a lot of people who are just their day to day. They don't really pay attention to their stock portfolio. They don't really understand that. The bond market is much much much larger than the equity market. And how everything works. But I was looking at the city of Detroit and in about two thousand thirteen. The city of Detroit declared bankruptcy meaning of course that they didn't have enough funds to to pay their debt back so they they restructured their debt. And at the time the municipal bond holders got seventy four cents on the dollar and so if we think about the municipal bond market now which is where all the city's fund all of the infrastructure projects. How worried are you about a drop in income tax in a drop in property tax in cities all across America that they don't have ability to print money that they have these bonds and projects and government workers and state workers who are now starting to hear beget laid off? How does a city recover two three years? What does this look like from the municipality perspective so I am a marginally worried about that I mean if you look at the spending at the state and local governments together aggregate that accounts for close to ten percents of GDP and unlike the federal government which can run these guys generally cannot write their constitutionally barred from their own constitutions from being on to do that so when tax revenue start to dry up as they are right now what they have to do they have to cut spending in the last thing you WanNa do when GDP is contracting significantly like it is right now is to have to cut spending and so this is? This is another political flight that occurring in Washington do make the the next package fiscal stimulus package up to this point focused on consumers and on businesses. Do we do this as well at the state and local people in Washington who sites? We need to do that. There's other people there who are saying no. We shouldn't be bailing those guys out. They need to cut spending Yada Yada Yada. That's that's a political argument right but you know if you look back at the at the recovery from the last recession. One of the things that cut that held that recovery back was that you have all these big cutbacks at the state over. So it'll be it'll be interesting with the politics out all plays out of Washington. So is there. Is there a potential come because again I I like how you keep sort of touching on? There is a political element that that overlays the the economics and so depending on your slant whether you're republican sort of small government small spend small tax or Democrat big government big. Spend big tax that. You're you're cutting down these lines but do you have a fundamental economic question around. Should the Fed be buying municipal bonds? So that if they go bankrupt it's basically the Fed gets hurt not the rest of capital which is an interesting economic argument. Now if we go one level up to the states and you alluded to this. And I'll use Illinois's an example where I think they had come out and said that they they wanted a bail out and part of that bailout was a bail out of their their pension and the state.

Federal Reserve North Carolina chief economist Washington Wells Fargo Bank South Carolina basketball Jay acting chief Nascar Atlanta Bryson United States Tom Ridge Zuhdi Federal Reserve Charlotte
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:09 min | 1 year ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The chief economist at Amherst pure point securities about what to expect from chairman past comments tomorrow from Jackson Hole Wyoming plus we'll speak to our good friend Barry results Bloomberg opinion columnist on his hash tag trump recession piece as well as the new concept being floated over last several days about stakeholder capitalism we'll see what that's all about the first as good as the prisoner Bloomberg news for a Bloomberg business flashed up Hey Paul ours some down today in the market about the path of the fed the end of the rate cuts that the market had been discounted today we heard from a Kansas city fed bank president Esther George saying the American economy doesn't need lower interest rate it's curious to because the Kansas city fed bank reported its factory Gage now contracting by the most since twenty sixteen now another fed official Philadelphia fed bank president Patrick Parker was telling CNBC he is on hold right now when it comes to the idea of cutting interest rates further now tomorrow venture Jay Powell will be speaking at the Kansas city fed bank has symposium in Jackson Hole that's the speech that the market really is waiting for terms of the equity market right now the Dow was weaker by tenth of one percent S. and P. five hundred down about three tenths of one percent the nasdaq composite meantime weaker by about seven tenths of one percent terms of eco data the numbers on weekly jobless claims much stronger than forecast we're now at a four week low but the manufacturing PMI here in the states a reading of forty nine nine for the month of August that echoed some of the weakness of we had coming out of Germany the manufacturing PMI their weaker for a seventh straight month contraction below fifty although on the positive side for Germany services about four cast ten year treasury right now with the yield of one point five nine percent you're caught up on markets let's get back to Lisa and Paul this is Bloomberg markets with Lisa from it's in polls we radio to Margie Powell will we're hoping at least will be some sort of definitive freed on whether or not the federal reserve will cut rates as much as investors are hoping most likely he will.

Jackson Hole official Kansas Bloomberg Amherst Margie Powell Paul Lisa Germany chief economist CNBC Patrick Parker president Philadelphia Gage Esther George Barry
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:14 min | 1 year ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Mickey Levy chief economist at Bernburg capital markets with a focus on the Asia Pacific region, which seems to be the focus of markets over the last several months. It seems Mickey good to talk with you this morning. We are as many market. Participants are trying to figure out what comes next in the US China trade dispute. Where do you see this going? Critical point is the whole issue has gone way beyond and focuses on intellectual property and related issues in that regard. I do expect this current impasse to be broken with some kind of agreement on some of some of trade and tariff related issues. I think. The debate and and scuffle on intellectual property is going to continue to keep in mind is. Some of these, like, borrowing actual pretty and requiring foreign companies. To turn over their actual property. You know, Detroit dentures this is this is part of this is a critical factor. That is it is lifted China from being a poor country into into an economic superpower, America's not willing to give it up right away. So we look for some breakthrough not on everything and likely to continue teacher. All right. So how do you read the bond markets? Read on what's been happening in terms of the heightened rhetoric we've seen on both sides. Well, I think that I think the lower farm yields are reflecting a confluence of factors including economic slump. And this is related to real problems and challenges in Europe. China's not just negotiations with the US, but also China's growth is slowing. Then you have also industrial slump in the United States with a moderate inventory overhanging to be unwound. We can't we can't lose sight of the Federal Reserve and other central banks are folding massive amounts of sovereign bonds and keeping interest rates really low inflation. Confluence of events are. Toward lower on yoga being. By the concern that, that things might unravel in the economy. So we've seen this before we had an industrial in two thousand fifteen sixteen late two thousand fifteen look like the wheels were coming off the China and much lower than they are now. Were down one point six to one point seven range, and then and then another episode was late. Two thousand eighteen were yields fell very sharply before. I don't think the US is going to fall into recession once again industrial but not a recession and just like the other episodes of the markets will way out of us. And, yes, I do some you know, agreement to agree between the US and China will will break the current impasse, if not Saul all the all of the critical issues, they face only about a minute left. You mentioned that inventory overhang that hung a lot in the read of first quarter GDP. We got the first time around. We got the first revision coming out later this morning expecting any major changes to that. We three very well could see another slightly downward revision but I think the critical point about the inventory. Overhang is appro- visit. Because because this is slumped in, in product demand. And she won and what is suggesting in to to the Renou, and maybe three. Final sales by the okay yield cheating people that will cut production. Try to. And a little a week, JD PM will maybe perpetuate market concerns about about weaker economic growth. Mickey Levy chief economist berenberg capital markets. Nice to talk with you this morning. And again, the revised first quarter GDP comes out at eight thirty A M, Wall Street time is five twenty four on Wall Street right now straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak. We're going to hear from Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman about the risks to the financial markets. Plus, all the latest news in business economics and finance development futures pointing to a higher open for equities on Wall Street s and p.

China US Mickey Levy chief economist Bernburg capital Asia Pacific Federal Reserve Bloomberg Morgan Stanley Detroit Europe Saul James Gorman America CEO
"chief economist" Discussed on Outcomes Rocket

Outcomes Rocket

04:23 min | 1 year ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Outcomes Rocket

"Two thousand financial times top ten digital management teams in five, Dr Kennedy joined GE healthcare, as chief economist and received the CEO's president's award for creating a team to drive market access at GE. She was a globe. The head of marketing operations and managed in innovation portfolio that lead GE's healthcare strategy, which the company grew two billion dollars in nine she was awarded the vice-chairman's award for John rice, for the creation of the N launch of GE's six billion dollars. Healthy magic nation innovation incubator. She's got a long list of accolades, including awards from the UN, the White House idea the triple negative foundation and the national association of executives really, really excited the dive into her expertise, today, some of the other things she's involved with our, Ted med a singularity university. So the list is long with that I wanna stop there and open up the microphone to Lisa to welcome to the podcast, Lisa. So glad you're on. Hi saw, thanks so much on. It's a real pleasure, privileged to be invited onto your show. Thank you. And so, is there anything that maybe you wanna fill in on that intro? No, I think you got it all aside from I wish my mom was listening. A lot of cool stuff for sure. That's awesome wall. You'll definitely have to share with her. So she could take a listen. I'd of your parents are like this. But I'm not sure that mine really know what I do. So I'll definitely send them send them this. No, it's, it's Fritz the same as same. So it's it'll be a good one. So a shoutout to Lisa's. Mom. So lisa. Why did you decide to get into the medical sector in a certificate question? And it was an accident. I was finishing my masters in policy management economics in the U K. And then, you know, I was looking to pursue a PHD and you know, I was only twenty three and I really thought that marketing was placed to be my supervisor at the time he talked using economists and you talked me back into economic sets out swipe background, I've, I've been really studying economics until Ben, and he specific area of expertise was health economics is in my twenties. Early twist. I really thought it was going to be just the most boring thing you could possibly do. But as you know, if anything opposite, he just in my PHD, I was able to travel that you THEO Pia. I didn't know anybody. But each day I could travel in a UN truck. I took down a data from about fifteen hundred maybe patients in Addison, baba. I went through patient charts, find drug reactions being able to watch nurses, go out find patients in their houses to make sure that they got the treatment that they needed witnessing what they have to go through and her to get healthcare. We think we have it hardware, who we have really have no idea in US. Yeah. It's such a good point. You know, we tend to be a little near sighted, when it comes to the larger global health issues. Sounds like you got a feel for a lot of the stuff those happening globally. So if you were to design on a hot topic, Lisa that needs to be on every health eaters mind today. What would you say that is, and are you guys approaching it at fifty so I know you probably really want me to save blockchain is, that's what everyone says undistributed leisures for help data and security is really pretty exciting. But instead, I'm gonna go with health coin, you know, I think the innovative finance in finding that unit to measure progress not really into. Acting for the US, if you think about carbon trading will I always inscription? We haven't we've been on a perennial search for the carbon of health and, you know, I think we need to clear way to measure health. Standardize way, I don't think the quality is it when you think about actions and steps to improve it, everyone acknowledges that health is married. Goodwill communists, for sure in so we need units to help us understand. How do we measure progress better? How do we incentivize it? I how do we maintain competition within the US? How do we get what is essentially a fundamental market failure in healthcare?.

Lisa Dr Kennedy GE US GE healthcare UN Ben head of marketing Addison White House chief economist vice-chairman John rice Ted supervisor THEO Pia president CEO undistributed leisures six billion dollars
"chief economist" Discussed on KCRW

KCRW

04:23 min | 1 year ago

"chief economist" Discussed on KCRW

"Your long everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Andrew del right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. He took over not is the chief economist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning and some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected to slow down to three point three percent in twenty nineteen and we expected coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious so that's the sense in which this is delicate moment because if any of the downside that we worry about materialize. Now, the recovery that we're expecting a may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call them make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy combination around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between the US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect. See some recovery's and stressed economies that Tina Turkey. So that's where I focused is coming from show. We've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an escalating intrigue tensions, you know. Maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, a we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be avoided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of eating the US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment and is important for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank policies vase is taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence remain data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. Great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..

International Monetary Fund Brexit US China chief economist U S China Andrew del Putin Tina Turkey secretary UK Steven Mnuchin three percent six months
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

06:12 min | 1 year ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Arjun is chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book investing in the Trump era, how economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But with us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio nice to see you again. Same carol. It's great. And you've got this book. I feel like it's very timely. We were kidding with you Jason. I that. It's a little dance. There's a reminds me of my economic textbooks in college. But tell me what you set out to do. Yes. The the motivation was watching the presidential debates and I wanted to turn them off. Because I said this isn't informing the electorate this is just name calling. And so I said in a time of partisanship. Can't somebody go out explain to the electorate, here's what the issues are all about present views from both sides of the political divide. Try to present evidence to suggest who might be right or not. And then just be a more informed voter. And so how do you cut through all of it because we were talking right before we came on air that we are starting to sense that investors are better maybe a little bit better. As this administration goes on at separating the signal from the noise, you don't see as much of the market fluctuation on a tweet here there and focusing in on the key economic and investment issues. What are they what? So if there are three. Three. What are they what we should be focused on? You know, basically, initially it. I thought the most important were the corporate tax changes and deregulation, and I had the good the bad and the ugly of Trump policies. So the good was I'm not saying from an absolute perspective and saying will be good for the market. Right. And my conclusion was they would be good for the stock market they boost corporate profits. What was the bad? The bad was how did we finance of the tax cuts? They didn't pay themselves. And we're finding out we're facing a trillion dollar budget deficit in the coming year. The treasury has admitted that so that goes hand in hand with rising bond yields so that's the bad. And then of course, what's the ugly? I'm an international economist by training. And what worries me is with Trump follow through on his rhetoric, and he has big time this year. And I think with the world is worried about. Is our economy's fine. But I look at the overseas economies they're softening in China and emerging economies Europe. And if we get into a major trade war, nobody knows how will play out. But it can sure you one thing nobody wins. That's my ugly. That's interesting. All right. So we've heard also President Trump talk about even more tax breaks for some and some and going onto trade policy. Some say it is smart to kind of rework some of these policies that were in a different environment. That some of them are old what what are the policies that you think would make the biggest difference to the US economy right now? So Carol to that we don't need more tax cuts. In fact, I thought we needed tax reform simplify the tax code to make it easier. And if you if you give somebody a tax break, you gotta take away a tax loophole. And Ronald Reagan learned that in one thousand nine hundred eighty six so so basically, I'm not in favor of more tax cuts. I think the thing that everybody said would have made sense and might still make sense is public sector infrastructure structure. And it's amazing. Everybody agrees that it's the thing to do. Right. Still. It's still and there's a lot of money as we know. Jason I talked to a lot of the private equity guys have been raising these billions of dollars in funds and not being put to work. That's right. And I'm saying, so that's what should happen. But let me tell you why won't happen. Again. It comes down to the budget deficit not just for a year. Carol I'm talking for the foreseeable future is out of sight. And so even the president has had to go to his various agencies and say all right everybody for next year cut spending by ten percent. So. It doesn't add up. They're not going to be able to figure out a you know, how to do this. So I wish we had started with it. And I'm afraid it's too late right now. So you come out of writing this book. Are you more optimistic about the investment possibilities now less optimistic about where where you were when you went in? I'd say less optimistic. I think initially there was the basis for. If they stimulate the economy, and so far to be fair to the president that's worked corporate profits record highs. But what I'm basically saying Jason is okay. Now, though, we have to pay for some of the Bill, and as I say, I believe that interest rates are headed higher on not because of inflation. It's just there's a huge amount of borrowing going on the economy strong. So that's gonna be a headwind for the stock market. And then on top of that, I've got a very strong dollar which Trump doesn't want right because he knows that hurts American exporters. But guess what if you are growing faster than the rest of the world? You've got rising rates capital comes in. So I think that we're going to face more headwinds. And that's why tell everybody I'm not perish. But I tell everybody listen this time to be more cautious of those glorious returns of last year. Just be grateful. You got him right, greedy, some basic economic fundamentals going on right in terms of higher rates capital flows. It's really it's really fascinating. Thank you so much. Thank you. Great to have you back here. Next Arjun chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book is investing in the Trump era economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But again was joining us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio coming up on the other side of the break. We'll get a check on your top business stories. We did see a headline crossing edgy out with their third quarter just at loss of thirty four cents a share versus an estimate of six cents a.

Trump carol Jason I president Bloomberg interactive brokers Virginia chief economist fort Washington Arjun treasury Ronald Reagan US China Europe
"chief economist" Discussed on Talk 1300 AM

Talk 1300 AM

02:34 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Talk 1300 AM

"The chief economist for i trust as we follow his his commentary daylight he's he's a big contributor to the fox business network as well and he he basically believes that and he's holding his forecast of twenty eight thousand five hundred dow and a thirty one hundred snp which is you know about fifteen percent higher than it is right now he has not changed that standard to despite the correction we've seen despite the trade wars despite the uptick of interest rates and he said it could be higher but he's still holding to that twenty eight five on the dow and thirty one hundred on the smp and he thinks that the trade negotiations ship usually will provide good things and you know he expects the earnings to continue to grow for the full year about fifteen percent and he's a big proponent on on market's doing better as we head through the balance of this year deductive kelly would j p morgan who's another economists that we follow and he's been on the show and bryant westbury westbury's been on our show his analysis is is is based on fundamentals and valuations and positioning and he he thinks you know the huge amount of information that's out there on the internet is often wrong it's often dangerous and he constantly rejects the fundamentals on the economy on interest rates and earnings anything's you know nothing has changed for money conomic growth point of view and he's he feels the tax cuts will will give us economic growth the jobs report will be better and better confidence is going to be there and spending is going to increase and spite you know the uptick at the at the the gasoline pump the rise in oil prices does have effects on the economy there's no doubt about it you know higher gasoline prices may restrain slightly in my opinion consumer spending but the increase in energy exploration because of the increase in oil prices does imply more capital spending out there that's going to add to the gross domestic product growth the gdp and for the fed policymakers the key questions whether the higher cost of transporting goods maybe passed along to consumer prices in this adds to the difficulties that the fed has an achieving a soft landing for the economy in the.

chief economist kelly bryant westbury westbury fed fox fifteen percent
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News

AP News

02:22 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on AP News

"The past days see store for details and terms and conditions a fight brewing over a trump administration decision to add a question about citizenship status to the twenty twenty us census ap washington correspondent saga megani says it's facing opposition especially in california the administration says asking for citizenship information is helpful on a number of fronts specifically to help us better comply with the voting rights act but democrats are blasting a move they say will intimidate immigrants meant to try to drive certain populations away from completing the form california attorney general havi airbus sarah says that would skew each community's numbers affecting everything from seats in the us house to federal funding california and other states say they're suing the administration over the change saga megani at the white house a democratic senators demanding answers from the national rifle association ap correspondent matt small says it has to do with money coming in from overseas senator ron wyden of oregon wants the national rifle association to turn over information about funding it receives from foreign sources and how it spins that money the ranking democrat on the senate finance committee has asked the group for a detailed breakdown of their media buys over the past three years purchased with foreign funds is also seeking communications and other internal nra metrics regarding those media campaigns but the nra insists that while it received some foreign funding it says none of the money is spent on elections a left leaning advocacy group has asked the federal election commission to investigate whether an ally of russia's president gave to the nra during the two thousand sixteen presidential campaign matt small washington pending home sales in the us picked up last month after falling five percent in january the national association of realtors says it's pending sales index rose three point one percent in february two one hundred seven point five despite the uptick the index is still down four point one percent from a year earlier chief chief economist blames the uneven performance at a shortage of homes on the market pending sales surged ten point three percent in the northeast rose three percent in the south but eked out gains of just point seven percents in the midwest and point four percent in the west what a matchup.

russia national association of realto senator matt small ap attorney chief economist washington president megani senate finance committee national rifle association oregon ron wyden white house us california
"chief economist" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

01:51 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on KQED Radio

"More than a hundred gop lawmakers sent a letter to the president yesterday urging him to reconsider the european union said it would retaliate they in swonk is chief economist at accounting firm grain thornton according to important thing is now markets are hoping now be scaled back but at the end of the day we are moving gown and shifting course in terms of protectionism and then go it's important to remember protectionism is something that always benefit semi minority over the majority in an economy and that's a dangerous route to czech shifting gears international to what's going on here at home tomorrow we expect to get the employment report from the commerce department what are you looking for what we had regime and montored january there was a lot of workers who literally couldn't get to work particularly in the south because if unusually harsh winter weather which means the composition of games in the month of january we're more high wage workers they got to work forgot paid any ways than what we usually see in a month the wage data in the month of february as those low wage workers come back to work could be much softer than we saw in the month of january and that could be something that markets are very focused on and they could misery debt as a slowdown in wage gains rather than just these month to month distortions and what it means for the trajectory on interest rate hikes this year chief economist at grant thornton and i'll let's do numbers the dow jones industrial average is up thirty seven point says less than twotenths percent the smp 500 is up about twotenths percent the nasdaq is up twotenths of percent 10year treasury elders at two point eight five percent the senate is expected to vote on a bipartisan bill possibly as early as today that will free up small and midsize community banks from the regulations but in place after the financial crisis one prevision would relax how the bank's report who gets housing loans.

president european union swonk chief economist commerce department grant thornton smp senate eight five percent 10year
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:12 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling assets off of their balance sheet are they selling them or they learning them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow that is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of larger than bactor so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off the there were mergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real tenure yeltsin right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the average is about two percent were sold other words when you when we say we'll he'll real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very its by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding this really no other word to describe that above the.

chief economist fed yeltsin bloomberg kpmg two percent 10year four decades
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:05 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"My guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates vetter tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance sheet are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they won't your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is that the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow god is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of largely factors so you should prize that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet ayatollah the street gets paid so of course us what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed isn't so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say will he'll real adjusted for inflation 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that above the.

chief economist fed kpmg vetter donald woods 10year two percent four decades
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:12 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they're doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow the jet is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of lord's factors so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation bias so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization sir so i went back and looked at 10 real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent finally there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say lille real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that by the.

chief economist fed bloomberg kpmg donald woods lille 10year two percent four decades
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:44 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Is constance hunter she is the chief economist at kpmg wish she overseas aid broad portfolio of different of business sectors let's jump right into where we are in the modern economy from the perspective of a big accounting and consulting firm they they split the two pieces in two different groups is that right so we have some regulatory requirements that they create chinese walls and we there are a long list of advisory services that we cannot offer to our audit client right and but this is a great businessman because it it diversifies our business we have audit and tax mmhmm and then we have our entire advisory business which is very diverse so we do things like data analytics we do things we vote entire business called people and change which when you think about what is happening in the labor force and the way technology is impacting firms and how they're managing for that how their retrain their workers that's a that's a huge practice for us for example showed none of course risk compliance all that other stuff on either traditionally expect someone like kpmg to do so you originally were on the biocide you were an investor in fixed income an alternative investments how has that colored how you see the world of economics whether it's for an audit slash consulting firm or anyone else what does coming from the biocide duty your economic perspective fall for me i think it's critical to my ads and and that is that i i've spent most of my career using economics to make investment decisions and.

chief economist kpmg
"chief economist" Discussed on BBC Radio 4

BBC Radio 4

02:26 min | 2 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on BBC Radio 4

"Chief economist of the imf said the overarching risk is complacency we've seen other markets hit many many record highs we have uh this idea rolf that growth is hiding some of these big structural problems and these big structural problem is all things like inequality inequality he within countries who have within countries inequality between generations between countries here there's a big push on gender equality just twenty one percent of the delegates here are women now that's a record high but still a remarkably low number and israel worries that although there is global growth is not global growth that is being shed in a way that many people think he should be in people look at the events hair and the the big dinners in the glamour and they won the weather capitalism is really working for them but really the big issue will be here is looking towards the end of the week and the arrival of president trump the firstserving president to visit double since president clinton the year two thousand what's hone will he set here will he b combative about the way america is leading the world and you should all get on the way that where operating and not worry so much by global trade or will he be more conciliatary now that'll be the really interesting part of this whole event and we'll broadcasters program from dennis on that day on friday thanks komo twenty four minutes past seven turkish forces and still on the attack on the border between turkey and syria they're trying to throw kurdish forces are northern syria with worrying implications for turkey's relationship with nature will act made better shonka is a turkish mp heads the turkish delegation to the nato parliamentary assembly and he's on the line so is color who goal the new york times bureau chief and i think keleti you are actually on the border what's happening at the moment they they're in today three and the pushing in but they haven't got very far they've they've entered to several miles into our free in this two kurdish enclave of northern syria but they're taking that time they using air jetson unborn quite lord but the going quite slowly so far towards we march in the town of our but they're not there yet because they have had a casualty overnight the.

Chief economist imf rolf president clinton america dennis syria turkey bureau chief israel nato new york times twenty four minutes twenty one percent
"chief economist" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

02:08 min | 3 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"With your even forty dead news headlines on keep leads a video posted on youtube joe's oregon state police talked with the suspect accused of starting the massive eagle creek fire the columbia river gorge on saturday it's been identified as a fifteen year old boy who was setting off illegal fireworks the video post by a witness showed police talking to that suspect his careless nail legal actions are believed to have ignited the you go creek canyon fire oregon state police said the suspect was contacted by law enforcement of the parking lot of the eagle creek trail head just as the fire started on saturday that team has not been arrested no formal charges have been filed at this time thus to leave the teen and others were using fireworks along the eagle creek trailed troopers are asking anyone who were firework drug or explosions on saturday near the eagle creek trail or punchbowl falls to notify them that the oregon state police officers four the money station on key points chief economist at the renaissance macro well just to reiterate vice chair fan stanley fischer has announced his resignation from the federal reserve effective mid october uh cited personal reasons joining me in studio here are michael mckee are economics editor matt buzzer who recovers the fed uh marta schenker executive senior executive editor and now we've got carl riccadonna our uh economists for bloomberg intelligence so carl go ahead e on pounds worth a penny go ahead what are your thoughts about all this sure well this the the unwritten rule of being the vicechair is dead thou shalt not disagree with the chair so what yellen goes from having a defect defacto two votes on the committee having just one which means that she's going to have a harder push to convince policymakers to stay on course for rate hike by end so i think this says significantly reduces said those those chances as a number of other voting members of the committee including governor brainard yesterday expressed reserve about any additional lower rate tightening and this is the the.

governor brainard bloomberg senior executive executive marta schenker vice chair creek canyon eagle creek oregon columbia river gorge carl riccadonna editor matt buzzer michael mckee stanley fischer chief economist law enforcement fifteen year
"chief economist" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds

Vox's The Weeds

01:47 min | 3 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds

"We are so focused on what the trump administration is doing that i think it is sometimes hard to keep an eye on what they are not doing there is no economic theory currently animating the trump administration and their policies except for a generalised orientation towards deregulation they don't have a chief economist like the caa does not have a a chief economist appointed to it they are not running any kind of overall theory i mean towards the end of the obama administration as you know there was something interesting beating papin their caa with jason furhman around trying to look at some of this monopolistic stafan and trying to think about how to do it they began talking about occupational licensing and and trying to develop again like okay we did all this stimulus and financial rescue things clearly and fix the economy even averted or worse catastrophe what do we have to do next and and something i do think is a pity on right now and and the failure is it there is no work in any serious way happening in the trump indecision to diagnose the problems in theory he ran on and come up with something to do about them they want to do tax reform but they do not know what kind or really why they want to deregulate 'cause like their friends don't like regulations but again it's not a targeted kind of approach and i just this is bad like be these these papers was saying there's something deeply fundamentally wrong in the american economy even if the economy as a whole is still growing okay and still creating jobs and so even grading income and i am not sure that there i think we are justin appeared in the trump administration of drift on this might be considered part of the for back half obama when they did not have really the power to pass much but this is not.

chief economist caa obama administration jason furhman justin obama
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News

AP News

01:37 min | 3 years ago

"chief economist" Discussed on AP News

"Chief economist gospel shea calls the lives jobs report excellent not only did we had a lot of jobs over the month but we also saw average hourly earnings rise we saw upward revisions to job growth in may and april as well in economy is added about one hundred ninety four thousand jobs on average over the last three months which is a very good number because the labor department report wasn't expected to be bad but they weren't expecting it to be so good this is above expectations and so certainly if the economies creating two hundred thousand jobs a month that means that we're quickly absorbing slack in the labour market and the unemployed people were being put back to work despite the big game the jobless rate still matched up a tenth of a percent to four point four percent something jose says isn't a bad thing because it means more time out of work americans resumed their search we saw about three hundred and sixty thousand more people in the labor force in in june from may uh that means people are feeling more confident than the job market uh and so that should be taken as a good sign that people are feeling their prospects of getting the job or good in so they're coming back to look for work however while more jobs are being created the rate of pay is not corresponding and he says there are a couple of reasons why average pay rose just two and a half percent in june one percent below the pace typical of a healthy economy inflation is low so if we look at after inflation wages they they look a little bit better but also businesses are reluctant to raise pay up but i think is is the job market gets tighter is businesses compete more for workers we will see stronger wage growth and so i think by this time next year will see wage growth of above three percent robust jobs report means the us economy remains resilience and could signal another interest rate hike from.

shea jose Chief economist us three percent four percent three months one percent