35 Burst results for "Chief Economist"
U.S. Economy Added 559,000 Jobs in May
"To date. We are asking the all important question who matters more to bitcoin the whales or the plebs first up. Let's do the brief. I on the brief today. We have the jobs report for may and it's kind of mixed news. Us employers added five hundred fifty nine thousand jobs last month which is less than expected but up from two hundred and seventy eight thousand in april but still down from march when seven hundred and eighty five thousand. Jobs were added. Mattielo zeti the chief economist. For which a bank said quote. It's the middle of the road report. It is disappointing relative to where we were a few months ago where we were anticipating. You could see a million plus type prints over these coming months. We've had to ratchet down our expectations. About what job. Gains are likely to be going forward and this should matter to you if you're in the bitcoin space because it has a meaningful impact on monetary policy going forward aggressive accommodative monetary policy has allowed stock valuations to rise as high as they are pushed people farther out on the risk curve a booming market featuring full employment and high inflation would force the fed to change those policies as rates rose stock prices and risk on assets in general could see a fall and bitcoin is enough of a macro asset. Now that it would likely be caught in some of that however the fed has signaled that until jobs are fully recovered degree much farther than this. They'll be keeping policies. The seem even at the cost of a little extra inflation
US Job Growth Slows Sharply in Sign of Hiring Struggles
"The job market recovery hit a bump last month with hiring sharply down from March after adding nine hundred sixteen thousand jobs in March employers added just two hundred sixty six thousand last month your employment report was severely disappointing while many analysts predicted a gain of nearly a million jobs as virus restrictions ease stand more businesses reopened grant Thorton chief economist Diane Swonk says there were losses across the board except in the hospitality sector she says this doesn't mean the recovery has stalled it means people need to temper their expectations amid optimism it's a marathon not a sprint and yet this marathon just lost a little wind will get more soccer make ani Washington
Retailers Try to Hire Tens of Thousands of Workers
"We're looking for a big jump in retail sales as consumers who got him cashed those $1400 virus relief checks. High retail sales, of course, could mean will be seeing a whole bunch more retail job openings, which would be a good thing. Dollar general in point of fact. Just announced it's looking to hire up to 20,000 people. Other chains IHOP, Taco Bell and McDonald's among them are on hiring sprees as well. But even with the labor market as loose as it's been retailers or having a hard time finding people marketplaces, Marielle Segarra explains, what's going on. We talked a lot about pent up demand this idea that people will spend more money when they get vaccinated that they'll go to restaurants and buy clothes to wear those restaurants and on vacations. Andy, Challenger, Challenger, Gray and Christmas, says retailers are preparing for this. These employers are clearly anticipating a huge surge in demand through the summer through the end of the year as people start to feel safe. But that doesn't mean potential Retail workers feel safe, Shawn Ashworth AlixPartners says. A lot of people are worried about getting sick and they're asking themselves Do I want to go back into retail and work in an environment with high contact with other employees and customers? Or do I want to consider work from home job? A lot of people who used to work in retail have probably found other jobs at home or not. Jed Kolko is chief economist at indeed, during insured when retail wasn't hiring many people, other sectors were manufacturing, warehousing, driving, jobs, Pharmacy and other help Your lady jobs. One obvious way for retailers to attract workers would be to offer more money. And Andy Challenger says some are giving bonuses. But when you look at like small retailers, small restaurants, those businesses have been under enormous pressure for a year. It's been a really, really difficult environment. It's easier for the big retailers. Mariel Sierra for
IMF Upgrades Forecast for 2021 Global Growth to a Record 6%
"A new International Monetary Fund report foresees appeared of global economic growth ahead the IMF says the rollout of coded nineteen vaccines involve sums of government aid will this year kickstart growth to a record high in the powerful rebound from the pandemic recession the one hundred ninety country lending agency says it expects the world economy to expand by six percent in twenty twenty one up from the five point five it did full cost in January it would be the fastest expansion for the global economy in IMF records dating back to nineteen eighty I am F. chief economist Gita Gopinath told reporters a way out of this health and economic crises is increasingly visible I'm Charles through this month
Biden Administration To Tackle Economic Disparities Caused By COVID-19
"The pandemic made existing economic inequalities in this country even worse. So what does the biden administration plan to do about that. Npr's asia roscoe talk to john jones chief economist at the labor department and the first black woman to hold that job employers added more than nine hundred thousand jobs last month. That's a banner number for any administration and the unemployment rate dropped to six percent but general jones. The first black woman to serve as the top economists for the labor department says you have to dig further into those numbers whenever someone tells me a headline number or tells me the economy is doing really well. My immediate follow up question is for who and who's being left behind and who is not included. The answer as it has been for years is a lot of the country that is not white or male with the growth in vaccinations. Businesses like restaurants and hotels are making more money and hiring more people. Jones says that's good news for black. And latino women who are over represented in the leisure and hospitality sector. Still unemployment only failed to seven point nine percent for latinos and nine point six percent for african americans if the overall unemployment rate was nine point six percent for all workers we would be running around with our heads on fire that is crisis levels of unemployment and jones says that even a return to pre pandemic jobless levels will not be good enough for many people. During the trump administration the low unemployment that preceded. The pandemic was promoted as a top accomplishment. Here's former president trump. In his farewell address we reignited. America's job creation and achieved record low unemployment for african americans hispanic americans. Asian americans women almost everyone but even at those historic levels. African american unemployment was still about double white unemployment for jones. Those sorts of details are significant
Good Friday Delays Market Reaction to March Employment Report
"Good Friday holiday. But it is not completely quiet today, with the government releasing the March employment report. Of course, there won't be any market reaction to that until Monday. It is good Friday being the holiday, some questioning why the jobs report by the government is being released on a holiday. Well, the government follows a very strict schedule. It takes its household surveys during the week that contains the 12th of the month. And then it always releases the report on the third Friday following that week, so every few years it comes out on good Friday. According to Goldman Sachs chief economist Young Hotsy is it should paint a picture of an improving labor market? What seeing acceleration in the numbers as the economy reopens, and you can see it in some of the most covert affected sectors, and we'll also getting a boost from the tax free dates that went out a couple weeks ago. So all of that should really give us I think strongest growth rates of the year if consensus forecasts are correct the U. S economy and it's 675,000 nonfarm jobs last Ones. With the unemployment rate dropping from 6.2% down to 6%. However, some of the more optimistic forecasts are calling for job additions of one million or more. CNBC's Peter
Florida Gov. DeSantis slams CDC rules keeping cruise industry shuttered
"Approved for teenagers then Florida's economy continues its slow recovery. Florida seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in February, 2021 was 4.7%. The state's chief economist, Adrian Johnson, says that number went down 1/10 of a percent from January most jobs. Lost in our state over the past year came in the leisure and hospitality industry. When theme park shut down, they have re opened. But the cruise ship industry remains largely closed by a no sale order by the CDC. Governor De Santis criticized that, saying the feds have offered no
The Jobs Numbers: Who's Hiring in America
"Hundred and forty. Five thousand is the number of the day on this thursday. At of course is the number of new applications for state unemployment benefits filed last week astronomically high as i think i've been saying every single thursday for going on a year now. The bureau of labor statistics is going to hit us with the jobs report for the month of february tomorrow. Another snapshot of how this economy is doing as a whole good in parts. Not so good in others. One part of the labor market. That is doing all right. Actually manufacturing marketplace's andy euler going where the jobs are. The john deere engine in tractor museum in waterloo iowa celebrates the history of mechanized agriculture but the museums hosting an event. This weekend. That is very much about the present a job. Fair randy venzke labor relations manager at john deere's waterloo works where they make those big yellow and green tractors the jobs that were currently focusing on our your general assembly. Some well living in some machining jobs. He says the company started its hiring push back in december quickly had over a thousand applicants. And we're able to fill more than two hundred jobs since then you know. The number of applications have really dropped off fact. We've received about hundred hundred ten applications in the past two weeks. He says they're trying to hire about three hundred more people by april problem is there's only about one hundred thirty thousand people in the county in unemployment is currently under four percent across the. Us manufacturing activity is up increasing three year high in february as consumer demand rebounded after the early stages of the pandemic manufacturing's been growing not quite for a year but for the last nine months. David berson is chief economist at nationwide insurance. Because it's been growing has needed workers and they're starting to run out of workers for whom manufacturing jobs or the appropriate physician and jed cocoa chief economist. The job website indeed dot com says. There's a skills mismatch between those hiring. And those seeking employment sectors have laid people off service leisure tourism and the sectors that have done a lot of hiring endemic manufacturing warehouse. Construction do require somewhat different skills and he says those industries that initially lay people off this time last year are starting to hire people back. I may dealer for marketplace a little bit lost in the news. Firehose today was data on fourth quarter worker. Productivity widgets produced for our work to is the very simple formula down four point two percent october through december the biggest drop in forty years. Not great. no but this is a little bit misleading in terms of understanding. What's going on you aren't s. Q is at the university of pennsylvania school of social policy and practice businesses that were not as productive normally just by the nature of the activity such as restaurants and so on have started reopening. So that drags down the average productivity and today's numbers not entirely unexpected. Well that's happening. There is what we call a regression to the mean. Now why are we telling you. This is amount of zilder is at the conference board. It is a basis for future living standards if productivity rises sustainably. That means that down the line Wages are going to be increasing on a more steady stable basis and so from the history matters filed this bit of context. Productivity growth was really sluggish after the great recession wage growth back then also super sluggish as well
Attacks briefly knock some podcast hosts offline
"Browns bean spreaker and captivate all subjects to eight to nile attack. The same attackers appear to have been involved. We were wondering why they targeted podcast hosts so we talked to them. You'll find that full report in our show notes and our newsletter today. A company called. Happy scribe is publishing automated transcripts of podcasters without the parent's consent of many of the publishers. We learned today. Cumulus media owner of westwood. One has its achieved more than one billion downloads. In two thousand twenty podcasting revenue grew forty percent last year to they say. They've made their bet on partnership arrangements with talent as opposed to going out and spending a lot of money on it or infrastructure the company uses spotify owned megaphone backtracks has launched a tool that monitors your head gesture movements. The tool requires the listener to be using airpods pro headphones investor. Andrew wilkinson says in a tweet. He's removing podcasts. From his phone because podcastone mostly people repeating ideas. You already agree with or talking about things that trigger anxiety. He's co founder of tiny capital which invests in ios podcast app castro podcast membership platform super fast and podcast producer. Righto media try and digital has released the latest podcast ranker's for the us and latin. America they're incomplete ranker's containing participating publishers only notably the ranker's don't include. I heart radio podcasts. Triton digital is being bought by the company echoing the open independent nature of podcasting and writing in the financial times fulmer spotify chief economist will page notes that major labels released one point two million songs in two thousand and twenty but diy artists released nine point five million songs the music industry. He says he's making more money but has more mouths to feed. Iv is a new podcast app. That offers a way to follow. Topics tags hosts or podcasts. Catholic part is also a new podcast for android with a great name. Mavi star homa smart speaker in spain from canada now incorporates. I've is podcast catalog. And i will be speaking at the rain. Podcast business summit with npr's. Brian moffatt tickets are free and available now from link in our show notes and our newsletter. Today and in paul cost us the journal has an interview with dominion voting systems. Ceo john pelos today. His company has filed three defamation lawsuits against tv networks. Saying his excellently. One hundred percent accurate and very handsome. Voting machines are perfect. Which of course they absolutely are and nassar's curious universe is the first podcast recorded on another planet if features raw recorded sounds from the mars perseverance rover
South Africa halts AstraZeneca vaccine rollout
"South africa has halted its rollout of the oxford astrazeneca vaccine just a week after the country received. Its first million doses. It seems the vaccine offers limited protection against a new variant of the corona virus. That's now dominant in the country. Salim abdul karim co-chair of south africa's ministerial advisory committee on covid nineteen spoke to a world health organization briefing yesterday. We don't want to end up with a situation where we vaccinated million people too. Many people would have vaccine that may not be effective in preventing hospitalization and severe disease in total more than one point. Two billion corona virus doses have been allocated for the continent. But it's not clear when all those jobs will arrive. The longer any region remains unvaccinated. The greater the chance that more variants arise vaccines though can be tweaked in a formulation of the oxford vaccine targeted at the south african variant could be going into arms by autumn. What scientists cannot address is the long run damage to africa both in human and economic terms so far continent to have been spared from the worst case scenarios predicted early on in the pandemic but the longer term picture remains bleak many ways the impact of the pandemic and africa is worse than it appears on the surface around the official numbers. Kenley salmon is one of our africa correspondent based in dakar. It is the case that having a young population has to some extent protected the continent from the virus africans and died from it that americans europeans but the true scott of infection. Death is really hard to gauge. Studying sudan recently showed the perhaps only two percent of all the covid desk for a quoted in the official tally and the economic impact is worse than it looks last year. The region's economy shrank for the first time. In twenty five years tourism has been badly hit as have commodity exporters things like oil in nigeria and taken together. Gdp per capita fell below twenty ten levels last year so things are perhaps not quite as bad as some other parts the world but certainly still very tough and things may get tougher house. What are the particular challenges to africa. Africa faces quite a number of challenges in the next few years as it tries to recover from the pandemic but the biggest i of the really is vaccines. Some african governments have perhaps failed to grasp the urgency of the situation in tanzania for example the populace president john food even casually cast out with a vaccine work but i do forgive aside claiming the postman precautions such as steaming nation were better than vaccines and even added that if the white man was able to come up with next nations then. Vaccinations for aids. Malaria and cancer would have already been found. So it's not so much a question than of supply. I mean given that quite a few vaccines have been essentially booked at the stage. A number of vaccines have been booked but the big question is when will they arrive because right now there aren't anywhere near the number of axes required forever on in the world and rich countries are of course the front of the queue for those vaccines have been produced africa's going to need perhaps two point six billion doses to vaccinate everyone and those are not being made locally so they have to rely on supplies elsewhere for the moment so that means joining the queue. All this means that whereas rich countries aim to vaccinate most of their people by the middle of this year the african. cdc a public health. Bali in africa's aiming for sixty percent of africans to vaccinated by the end of next year. But even that may be too optimistic. For the poorest countries. The economist intelligence unit sister organization estimates that in most african countries most people will not be inoculated until mid twenty twenty three or even early twenty twenty four and there must be serious consequences of it being that long until the continent is on average vaccinated. Africa is likely. It doesn't get those vaccinations into suffer. Further waves of the infection while after the disease may have amped in the rich world. And that of course will cause more death and more suffering. Doesn't risk that. Having the virus transmitting between people frequently africa could allow new variance to evolve. We've already got the south. African variant and these new variants could endanger people even in rich countries if they prove to be resistant to vaccines and then finally of course not having vaccines could force. African policymakers to continue with these very difficult economic lockdowns curfews even after many other countries around the world set free of those kinds of restrictions and if the public health concern lasts that long then surely the economic concerns will last at least that long. That's right in many african countries facing pretty severe crises at the moment just getting finance to pay their bills. Africa has very limited fiscal space on average countries in sub saharan africa. Spending more than thirty cents on every dollar. They raise and text revenue paying their debts. And that's up from twenty cents on the dollar before the pandemic on the debt side to over half of low income sub saharan african countries are now classed as in distress or at high risk of distress. According to the imf and what about countries with bigger economies the two biggest economies in africa nigeria and south ever both in pretty deep trouble nigeria for example was described by the world. Bank is being an unprecedented crisis. Recently the bank is not normally quite so blunt in nigeria. There has been a legacy of management for a number of years and pandemics really accessible that quite badly. Now focused suggested by twenty twenty three. Gdp per capita may go back as low as it was in one thousand nine hundred eighty time when the oil price was some high on so africa too is in trouble that have been in recession twice in the last three years before the pandemic hit of course now is dribbling itself with a particularly heavy toll from the pandemic so both countries in fact are facing a difficult road out of the crisis. And what about outside help in terms of financing has been quite a bit of outside help although the crisis of course is very big but in twenty twenty the imf for example provided sixteen billion dollars in loans most of that came with relatively few strings attached and this help frigging countries to respond to the pandemic to avoid some of the liquidity crises that were looming the world bank also dispersed another ten billion but many countries got that funding to if the imf under emergency allocations that came quickly and relatively easily and those allocations for many countries will soon be exhausted. The rich world has been trying to help when it comes to debt. They've provided liquidity to countries through some bits of suspension initiative that basically allows poor countries to put off debt repayments until july. Twenty twenty one. This is of course helpful but the trouble is that those payments just suspended and they have to be paid back with interest in about five years time so as the chief economist for africa the world bank put it to us. It may just be kicking the can down the road to. How do you see this playing out. Then how high could the human cost of all this be while the stakes are pretty high. The pandemic has already done lower damage to people's health and africa. it's hitting their economic prospects and they wealth and it's also affecting education of course. Hundreds of millions of students in africa have been affected by school closures. This increases the risk of dropouts and reduces the prospects for africa's largest every generation so overall the costs here really quite significant. There are some reasons for optimism. We may see vaccine rollouts accelerate. There's also hopes that commodity price rises could give africa real boost as the global economy recovers been on balance. The evidence probably points to at pretty difficult road ahead with several more waves of the virus hitting already struggling health systems and perhaps a form of economic long covert in africa. So you know africans have come through this showing remarkable resilience but it may be toughest years are still to come in. Thank you very much for joining us. thank you
The most important 4-letter word in this economy: jobs
"Begin with the most important four letter word in this economy it is of course j o b s jobs about which we got the january report this morning so seventeen days into a new administration thirty six days into a new year three hundred and thirty five ish days into the pandemic economy counting as we are from mid march last year. This is where things stand. Yes we added forty nine thousand jobs last month and yes. The unemployment rate is down to six point three percent but we are still nearly ten million jobs underwater from where we started and also yes. I know that was a lot of numbers. But as i believe we've mentioned a time or two and as marketplace's mitchell hartman is about to remind us numbers can tell you. Think you're too but wearing economy stance. There are a lot of numbers in monthly jobs. Report it's kind of dizzying. So i asked each of the economists. I shoot the jobs data over with today to pick just one indicator that shows where the economy is eleven months into the pandemic one number that slams you between the eyes twelve and a half million. That's kurt long. Chief economist at the national association of federally insured credit unions. And he's referring to the total number of jobs where in the whole since the pandemic hit in the jobs report. That's ten million however if we had not been going through what we've been going through the past. Nearly twelve months the economy would have kept growing and long reckons. It would have added another two and a half million jobs. Jobs needed to keep up with population growth for new high school and college. Grads immigrants new parents returning to work and a half million jobs. That's an enormous deficit of course and at the pace we're going is just not nearly fast enough to eat into that and now the number. That slams elise gould at the economic policy institute between the is three point. Nine million jobs down. That's how many jobs we are still missing in the hard hit and often poorly paid leisure and hospitality sector people who don't have an adequate safety net because their wages have been low for so long. Now let's talk about unemployment. officially that's ten million americans who don't have job and are actively looking but mark hamrick banchory says that doesn't count a lot of people who are not working because of cova danger or childcare needs. We have another thirteen million. Who are either out of the labor force and want to work or who are underemployed. Working part time. I would like to have full time work at him up. He pegs the total unemployed at about twenty three million. That's about one in seven. Americans who had a job before the pandemic started
Record year for jobs coming to Austin
"Dallas Federal Reserve forecast for the Texas economy shows employers can expect at a lot of workers to the payrolls this year. Chief economist Keith Phillips says Austin Jobs have really weathered this pandemic better than any other city in the state. Austin obviously has greater high tech concentration than any other metro in the state. And high tech. Brill benefited from all this movement online. Austin's unemployment rate still above 5%, but that's better than the state's rate of more than 7% 518,000 jobs are predicted to be added to Texas payrolls this year.
10,000 stores expected to close this year due to COVID-19
"Major retailers, the report says, are expected to close 10,000 stores this year that is up 14% from the year just ended. But at the same time more than 3300 new stores open last year, and course I predicts another 4000 will open this year. Marketplaces Kimberly Adams has that one. The types of stores that shut down in the pandemic include lots of footwear, clothing and accessory shops. According to course, I research the types of retail that opened discount outlets like Dollar stores. Industries that cater to certain pandemic needs also did all right. I believe the housewares category as all overall in the country has seen tremendous growth from New York to the West Coast. Natasha aim it runs the kitchen supply store Whisk in New York. Her business did better than she expected in 2020. Now as restrictions start to lift. I'm hopeful that people will will keep up their love for cooking and want to spend their money at a store like cars, businesses, small and large, are trying to game out which pandemic changes will be permanent. Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG says, at least for those who are on the upside of the case shaped recovery, and I do think this pent up savings is going to lead to higher consumption that we would normally expect. Once we get to the other side of the pandemic, and for businesses that can hold on. Until then, there could be a business boom. Nicole Markey owns Hip City Veg, a chain of fast casual restaurants around Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. By the
Retail Sales Break Records During Holiday Season
"The us department of commerce's monthly retail sales report is expected to reflect more moderation in consumer spending at the end of two thousand twenty consensus. Economists expect that retail sales were flat in over november. After a one point one percent drop during the previous month while spending likely increased steadily. On a non seasonally-adjusted basis the ramp in seasonal spending was likely lower than in previous years as the pandemic steadily worsened through the month and fewer family gatherings took place over the holidays. New amora chief economist. Louis alexander said in a note. Friday restrictions on restaurant activity resulted in sharp declines for open table data suggesting a decline in food service spending during the month however this will likely be offset to some extent by large increases in gasoline store sales considering higher retail gasoline prices during the month the november retail sales print represented the biggest drop since april's record plunge as virus related restrictions constrained spending on services and more than offset ongoing strength in good spending a nearly eighty percent plunge in department store sales and sharp declines in clothing store and restaurant spending contributed most heavily to the overall monthly drop in november but even with the month over month decline retail sales remained higher by more than four percent year over year thanks to a surge in spending on goods earlier on during the pandemic period. Total sales are set to close out the year better than they started it with our forecast for flat sales growth in december consistent with a four percent year over year gain. This remarkable feat cannot be said for many areas of the economy that continued to reel from the pandemic wells fargo economist. Jay bryson said in a note friday but retail has disproportionately benefited from a surge in good spending that said there remains wide variation in sales by retailer and we expect that these dynamics of varying sales continued last month amid rising virus case counts a weaker than expected print. In friday's retail sales report could also signal some additional pent-up. Consumer demand could come back for goods consumption in the coming months. Bryson added if sales exceed our expectations however it would be further support of our forecast that after a year defined by the virus households spent in record numbers this holiday season as the yearn for comfort and normalcy. He added for
US job market weakens in December, fuelling hopes of more stimulus
"With political implications. That are as we speak. Still tb but with implications for this economy that you can kind of see the outlines of even now here to make sense of it. All our k- davidson. She is from the wall street journal neil. Richardson is the chief. economist ed. Adp hey you too. Neil let me start with a quick pass at this morning's jobs numbers because it is jobs day friday at the end of this kind of amazing week. We lost one hundred and forty thousand jobs last month. My question to you is more of a statement. Actually and it goes like this. Uh oh i guess. I l. indeed but it's not totally unexpected. We knew that the code cases were rising. They were rising december with that. Bryce states and municipalities have had to roll back or tighten restrictions on social gathering that has a direct effect on the job market so this trend of slowing the momentum in jobs recovered each month as cova cases rise continued in december. The hope is that when we have a population that is inoculated. Maybe later this year second half of the year. We'll see those job gains. Come back in the meantime it's still going to be a pretty rough winter For those people who are out of work and also cleared. I was touching with a friend of mine this morning. Who works in finance and he said you know. I think by fall or winter of this year which is to say. Twenty twenty one. We're gonna be rolling right along. And i texted him back and i said look man. We are as far from winter this coming year as we are from the beginning of this thing. Think about all the damage that can That is still yet to come in this economy. What do you think. yeah. I mean. I think that's what Democratic policymakers economists are warning about. And when you hear folks say it's important to have another big economic relief package for example which is something we've been hearing a lot about even though we just had this big nine hundred billion dollar. One Economists say it's important to try to get back to where we were before march as quickly as possible in other words. The longer this is drawn out the Take the harder it is to to come back. The deeper the hole the harder it is to get out of it So right it would be. It would be amazing if vaccines were rolled out quickly which may be an early december. We were all so excited. We thought they would be in our seeing. Gee it's not. It's not so easy. And and people are maybe a little more pessimistic. So that just means it's gonna take longer for people to be back in full force at restaurants or movie theaters or on cruise ships or airplanes and And it might. It might feel like a longtime time before at that place. So nila lemme ask you now about the news of tuesday. The democrats win georgia. They now control the senate and there had been much speculation that they were going to be able to do something more in relief. Maybe even those two thousand dollar checks the president trump and and others had been calling for and then joe manchin a democrat or west. Virginia came out today and said. I'm not sure i'm on board for two thousand dollars and everybody kind of realized that it's a much thinner majority than maybe the actual numbers would imply i think on this front. I make two points at first of all i. I firmly believe that the economy is going to lead politics. Some this issue if we continue to see job losses like we saw in december There may not be a lot of wiggle room of how the government responds. I if they want to make sure that the economy can pull through this. Secondly i think what would it. Also indicates is yes there is the may be some some dissension even along party lines. And so what it means. Is that big reforms which typically occur when there is a single party leadership might be delayed even further in this presidency. Because it's covid right. Now that's taking charge of covid. That has a seat at the table. And so that's going to have to play out a before we can get to those bigger reforms that i'm sure by the would like to tackle his term. That's a really good line. The economy is gonna lead policy Speaking of economic policy. Kate president-elect biden came out in a statement today or in a in a speech to reporters talking about a bunch of economic stuff. He said we should be investing in deficit spending which is remarkable thing for a politician to say out loud. It's a huge Reversal or shift if you will from when president obama came in Last financial crisis democrats were were leaning into this idea that republicans were pushing that in. I think continue to push that. We need to be worried about about deficits right. I mean we obviously want to support the economy and In support people and households. But we can't go too far. And i think that there's been it. There's been a big shift among Economists and economic thinking on this in ten or twelve years since then and that's look at interest rates. They are so low right now. In biden made this point that when interest rates historically low and the federal reserve you know they've got rates as low as they can go or as low as they are willing to go. They said they aren't gonna do negative rates They could do more bond buying but there's not a lot they can do Then you should be spending more even if that is deficit spending And that's the argument that we heard The president-elect today and it's interesting because we know that his economic team the advisors. He's been turning to for advice last year. They were making that same argument. They're saying look at the cost of finance. This debt is so low it it. It makes sense to invest now because those investments will pay off over the long term. If if they boost growth roy All right i'm gonna try to squeeze last one in and i'm going to try to get both here in about thirty seconds apiece if you could we've i want. You can't leave the segment today without the politics of this economy coming up and we talk a lot about uncertainty in this economy and what that has meant the last four years. I wonder neela what you think about instability in the politics of this economy because that seems to me to be where we are i think the biggest danger as we look at the economic fragility of that we're grappling with in the winter months. Is that we keep. We take our eye off the ball of the economy and the people who've been hit hardest in the economy. It's easy to give way to the politics of the moment. That still about ten million americans who were working in february who are not working now and we have rental moratoriums that actually end in january and so the danger is that we give way to the politics. We stop thinking about the economy. So meyer urgency on this. Friday is to remember. It's about the economy right now. And the health infrastructure that is necessary for to keep the economic recovery going to quickly uncertainty verses instability. Well i just. I think so much is going to depend on. What happens after january twentieth. And whether you still have president trump out there sort of riling rolling up his base And how the the congress and how republicans interact with the with the incoming administration the incoming president and we have reason to think that things might go okay mitch. Mcconnell has a longstanding relationship with joe biden and they've worked together for for many many years but to to as point earlier. I think that what happens with the economy is going to be driving these these discussions. Hopefully hopefully if things get worse or things stay. Stay as they are. They'll they'll come together though overcome These issues and get something done if the economy is it who davidson at the wall. Street journal
Economists Brace for Market Rebound Before COVID-19 Holiday Surge Peaks
"New covid nineteen cases in the us. Hit a one day record of nearly three hundred thousand over the weekend. According to data from bloomberg and johns hopkins university following an increase in travel for the holidays and resumption of testing after a holiday pause the widely anticipated post-holiday spike in cases is underway and the seven day average. Likely will hit a new record later this week. Ian shepherdson chief economist. For pantheon macroeconomics said in a note monday. We're braced for a bigger rebound than was seen in early december. Before cases finally peak around the middle of the month.
Pandemic wage gains were just a fluke
"Come friday. We're going to get the latest stab shot on average hourly earnings in this economy and it is expected to show continued strong winds gains but our guy on economic statistics mitchell hartman. He says best to ignore that and focus instead on the trouble yet to come so a crazy thing happened on the way to the pandemic recession. After the economy shut down and twenty million people lost their jobs. Workers average hourly earnings went up skyrocketed. Actually up eight percent year over year but what got was was not signal. Joseph bruce willis is chief economist at rsm consulting. He'll be our guide through this thicket of wage data and when he says noise not signal he means fast. Rising wages have been a statistical anomaly of the pandemic economy high paid professionals kept working from home and mostly held onto their paychecks but millions of mostly low paid service workers lost their jobs. When you've got forty percent of households making forty thousand or less seen a job loss or loss in wages. That explains that head. Fake if you will on wages forty year old cinnamon deutsche is. An example of what bruce willis is talking about. She was teaching at a childcare center in asheville beulah ohio when it closed and she got laid off in march her three hundred and fifty dollars a week. Paycheck disappeared from the average earnings calculation. But she got unemployment which included six hundred dollars a week in extra federal pandemic pay until she was hired back three months later. I made twice as much on unemployment with the extra six hundred dollars. As i do now but i am glad to be back to work. I mean i like going to work so like many americans do inches. Income actually went up for a while because of additional unemployment benefits and relief checks but those temporary effects are fading. And just says we're in for a rude awakening. What i think we're going to see is a very bifurcated. Wage market this idea that k shaped economy separation between the hadgem. The have notch bruce willis says the haves those who work in what he calls. These zoom economy will have made goes at the upper end. Those who are already thriving. There's going to be competition for those workers. you know. Premium place their wages but for lower wage says workers even as the economy reopened and employers. Start staffing up again. Those in the middle to the lower end of the market where the damage occurred. They're not going to see a lot of wage growth. That's due in part to supply and demand. Lots of unemployed workers looking for jobs not enough job openings to give them leverage to demand higher pay. then there's something. Economists call downward nominal wage rigidity firms during hard times ten not reduce. The wages of the employee said they keep on the books but when the times get better wage gains core restrained. That is pretty much what cinnamon joy is seeing in her job. She's back at work fulltime at her previous salary of three hundred and fifty dollars a week. The extra unemployment income she banked back in the spring has run out. My credit card is back up to you. Know almost max out trying to pay five or ten bucks extra so that i can pay that down. I make enough money to pay my bills and have mcdonald's once in a while but you know if my car breaks down or have an emergency am just outta luck i i have to borrow from. Somebody doesn't expect chill get a raise until she hits ten years of service in twenty twenty
Farmers Got A Government Bailout In 2020, Even Those Who Didn't Need It
"Back in the spring. Farmers who raise pigs were in panic. Some of their usual customers restaurants weren't buying prices had collapsed. Some hog farmers had no place to ship their animals because workers in pork processing plants. Were getting sick. This is just a grave situation on hot launch. This is nick. Giordano a top lobbyist for the national pork producers council in may on a call with reporters unless there is a large cash infusion from the federal government. We're going to lose a lot of producers lots of different farmers demanded government aid and congress provided thirty five billion dollars in emergency aid to farmers on top of regular farm subsidies which amounted to about ten billion dollars a year. Money went to hog farms but also people raising cattle corn and soybeans fruits and vegetables. Dairy farmers. Joe glauber an economist. At the international food policy research institute had trouble keeping up with at all. You almost lose track of of how much money is going out. Clobber used to be the chief economist at the us department of agriculture. And he finds it a little disturbing because by the time. Farmers got a bunch of those payments in the summer and fall. The problems were going away. Commodity prices have come back up and actually looking better than they've looked in several years. According to usda estimates total farm income this year without that emergency aid would have been about average with the government payments. Twenty twenty looks like it'll be the fifth highest year for farm income in the past forty five years. I think there is a fundamental question at that point. You say well. Why are we providing all this additional aid especially since farmers group are relatively wealthy while millions of other americans are wondering how they will ford groceries. I called up some farmers and got several different answers. Chad lehman is co owner of hog farm in illinois that got more than seven hundred thousand dollars in government payments in twenty twenty according to usda data obtained by the environmental working group which is critic of farm subsidies. Lehman says it's really not much for as big as his. He ran up against a cap on government payments to any single individual or farm. So didn't come close to covering his losses. None of us expect to be made whole but are asked was hey help us get to next year without that money. You don't think you would have made it to next year. What think you would have seen significant fallout from the pork. Industry significant fallout but farmers didn't have to prove that they needed help. They simply got paid based on their previous production of green or pigs or cattle the more crops. They grew the more government. Money they got up to that cap ron roseman farmer in western iowa says his neighbors sometimes made jokes about it. You know all these farmers were getting together and playing cards. These older farmers. I heard one guy say yep got another check from the government today. Didn't need it but boy. Yeah i don't know what to do with it. Roseman got some of money himself and yet i'm not in favor of an overall because it has Disproportionately gone to the largest producers which means those large farmers now have more money to outbid their smaller neighbors when land comes up for rent or for sale and when small farms eventually give up means fewer people in rural communities less life in small towns. We just continue to fight declining and aging population out here. It's a paradoxical result. Rosement says but passing out money to farmers this way can actually hurt farming communities and more money is now on the way. The latest coronavirus relief package contains another eight billion dollars in payments to farmers. Dan charles npr news.
"chief economist" Discussed on #hottakeoftheday
"Is going on vacation? It is dear w here for another episode of the heartache of the day podcast today. I'm very fortunate to be joined by Jay. Bryson who is the acting chief economist for Wells Fargo Bank and his base in North Carolina? J. Welcome to the show. How are you today great? Thanks for thanks for having meter so so North Carolina big basketball town. How are you feeling about the fact that there may not be there is no final four? Obviously no no march madness what. What was the vibe of of the state so so I'm a North Carolina Tar heel. I WENT TO UNC. Many my children and also did as well and actually it was kind of good news because we were going to make it to the big dance this year. So our streak up to like fifteen sixteen. A big dances remains intact but Yeah but but now it's obviously you know not having the NC Double A. Tournament. Iryna basketball crazy sort of places you know. It was tough but Just all sorts of sports. You know it's Things got shut down now. But that's all open and and hopefully things will start to get back to the good and and so we were chatting just before we went on air here about Where North Carolina is in terms of the stay at home order and South Carolina's obviously opened up with Tennessee. Atlanta Georgia has opened up as well. Where where's where's North Carolina in that spectrum of opening backup right so the governor Re a few weeks ago extended stay at home orders until may eighth And that's the latest so whereas South Carolina you know is starting to gradually reopen some of those other states. You mentioned we're not dairy that said It does seem like cases here as many other states are they're still going up at a decreasing rate. The curb is flattening here and we'll sleet and we'll see what happens going forward so one thing I did read today is that there's a Nascar race here in Charlotte Over Memorial Day Coca Cola. Six hundred they always APP and in the paper today. The governor said a assumes that that race will go forward doubts. Whether or not there's actually fans in the stands. I probably not GONNA be in front of nobody five. They may in fact the letter. That's I mean that's great and and I'd read earlier that the first professional sport that was at least coming back after cancelling was the PGA tour right and and It it certainly seems like people are are getting ready to get back to life. It'll be interesting so so talk to me a little bit about your background. And what it takes to become chief economist. And I think I think from context a lot of energy professionals who listen to this show are thinking about a career change after the crazy crazy. Double Black Swan and chief economist. Right so So I've been doing this for a number of years. Now I have a background did so. I have a economics in earlier by career I taught at university is a University of Alabama moved to Zuhdi Federal Reserve in Washington. Dc spent a number of years there and then about twenty years ago ourselves. I came to at the time. The bank was first union which became more covert. Now Wells. Fargo in you know I've been here for about twenty years now and So started out as our global economists of watching what's happening in the rest of the World Dawson there's a lot going on obviously here in the United States and I had to keep a track and then as chief economist retired about two years ago so I moved into that role. So so how over your twenty years. So I'm just thinking going back. It was about two thousand so so you would have been in a similar role kind of around the tech bubble burst and the Y2K. The most similar pandemic was that all the computers. Were GonNA end January. I was going to happen in Y. Two K. was GONNA melt down the world than it was sort of a non event but it coincided with the tech bubble. You know sort of took a long time to recover their the great recession in two thousand eight two thousand nine and then now this how does this compare to those events both similarities and differences? So this is a cliche now to use this word by us it anyway and this is unprecedented. We have never seen an economy. Just completely stop an altogether young tech bubble when you go back and you look at it. That turned out to be very mild. Recession was depression for the tech industry but for the overall economy wasn't much of her session at off of thought that the global financial crisis was once a generation. Not Lifetime sort of thing. This is completely different. This is where every part of the economy just shuts down and even as bad as October. Two thousand. Eight was Dench adapt so. That's the biggest difference This time around. I think some similarities. Are you know if you think back to two thousand eight you had? The government got very active decorated. Tom Ridge it for Federal Reserve Rolling out all sorts of programs and twelve years. Later we're kind of doing the same SORTA policy response. And so you know I think the good news of this world a lesson of the Great Depression you know the Great Depression. There was a recession. That was starting in the summer of nineteen twenty nine that turned into the Great Depression because of utter failure of policy. I'm Federal Reserve. Did Not do its job. As the lender of last resort fiscal policy in this country didn't really turn stimulant of until nineteen thirty three nineteen thirty four not the depths of great so we we've learned that lesson that when the economy in the private sector Covet grinds to a halt the other public sector has a role to prevent something even worse from happening. It is from from a context standpoint. Nineteen you know. We do have these major events in history and I think of one thousand nine hundred eighty nine nineteen eighty seven two thousand eight and two thousand twenty as sort of the big ones. I don't I don't know that I've missed any for walk with my wife. 'cause that's what you now. Do you go for a walk with family members during the day and we were looking at from nineteen thousand nine hundred. Nineteen thirty two. The Dow fell from about three sixty. Two thirty is at the bottom which cheer point on Fiscal Stimulus. So maybe talk high level Before we dive into the details about some of the functions of the of the Fed how you think about their use of the balance sheet and you know tarp as I recall which felt like a huge number at the time was like eight hundred billion if I remember correctly and we've already in terms of liquidity and fed action have already taken multitudes more and and as a buyer of last resort of municipal bonds and high yield bonds and treasuries and multiple levels of stimulus. What is the role of the Fed in the economy? And how does the economy? Broadly work for those. Who aren't as familiar with it before we dive into the specifics of what comes next. So the Fed is the lender of last resort with. Nobody is there to to lend. That's where that's what the Federal Reserve is is charged with doing. And so what they're doing now is is so he may remember the quantitative easing programs her after their young well what has been known up to this point as the great recession where they're buying government bonds mortgage back securities. They started doing that. But they're also as you got as you mentioned are also starting to buy corporal corporate bonds so high yield bonds in terms of exchange traded funds and municipal securities as well. And so what they're doing is a lot of these markets in recent weeks or back in back in late March Really started to grind to a halt. And if there's no trading in these markets witty and justice system just starts to completely dry out we are a capital markets based economy a lot of lending occurs through the capital markets through the corporate bond markets. So at the Fed is doing is by purchasing. Those things are starting to re liquify those markets and we've seen Issuance in the investment grade market. Just explode recently. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Fed if some of these bonds at their buying holding on the balance if they if they go bad you have the false then the Fed is looking at credit losses. And maybe sooner or later Congress would have to step in and make the quote solid. The Fed became technically insolvent because his losses. So they're really treading in some some really use. This word again unprecedented. And they're all. Potentially there could be some political blowback from all of this if some of these things that they're doing right now we're starting to go badly so so I wanna I wanNA take it a little bit in pieces and I'm Gonna I'M GONNA set of context and then I just want to get your feedback. So as said March I remember it was about March. Twenty third like the the market ceased to act and think for a lot of people who are just their day to day. They don't really pay attention to their stock portfolio. They don't really understand that. The bond market is much much much larger than the equity market. And how everything works. But I was looking at the city of Detroit and in about two thousand thirteen. The city of Detroit declared bankruptcy meaning of course that they didn't have enough funds to to pay their debt back so they they restructured their debt. And at the time the municipal bond holders got seventy four cents on the dollar and so if we think about the municipal bond market now which is where all the city's fund all of the infrastructure projects. How worried are you about a drop in income tax in a drop in property tax in cities all across America that they don't have ability to print money that they have these bonds and projects and government workers and state workers who are now starting to hear beget laid off? How does a city recover two three years? What does this look like from the municipality perspective so I am a marginally worried about that I mean if you look at the spending at the state and local governments together aggregate that accounts for close to ten percents of GDP and unlike the federal government which can run these guys generally cannot write their constitutionally barred from their own constitutions from being on to do that so when tax revenue start to dry up as they are right now what they have to do they have to cut spending in the last thing you WanNa do when GDP is contracting significantly like it is right now is to have to cut spending and so this is? This is another political flight that occurring in Washington do make the the next package fiscal stimulus package up to this point focused on consumers and on businesses. Do we do this as well at the state and local people in Washington who sites? We need to do that. There's other people there who are saying no. We shouldn't be bailing those guys out. They need to cut spending Yada Yada Yada. That's that's a political argument right but you know if you look back at the at the recovery from the last recession. One of the things that cut that held that recovery back was that you have all these big cutbacks at the state over. So it'll be it'll be interesting with the politics out all plays out of Washington. So is there. Is there a potential come because again I I like how you keep sort of touching on? There is a political element that that overlays the the economics and so depending on your slant whether you're republican sort of small government small spend small tax or Democrat big government big. Spend big tax that. You're you're cutting down these lines but do you have a fundamental economic question around. Should the Fed be buying municipal bonds? So that if they go bankrupt it's basically the Fed gets hurt not the rest of capital which is an interesting economic argument. Now if we go one level up to the states and you alluded to this. And I'll use Illinois's an example where I think they had come out and said that they they wanted a bail out and part of that bailout was a bail out of their their pension and the state.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The chief economist at Amherst pure point securities about what to expect from chairman past comments tomorrow from Jackson Hole Wyoming plus we'll speak to our good friend Barry results Bloomberg opinion columnist on his hash tag trump recession piece as well as the new concept being floated over last several days about stakeholder capitalism we'll see what that's all about the first as good as the prisoner Bloomberg news for a Bloomberg business flashed up Hey Paul ours some down today in the market about the path of the fed the end of the rate cuts that the market had been discounted today we heard from a Kansas city fed bank president Esther George saying the American economy doesn't need lower interest rate it's curious to because the Kansas city fed bank reported its factory Gage now contracting by the most since twenty sixteen now another fed official Philadelphia fed bank president Patrick Parker was telling CNBC he is on hold right now when it comes to the idea of cutting interest rates further now tomorrow venture Jay Powell will be speaking at the Kansas city fed bank has symposium in Jackson Hole that's the speech that the market really is waiting for terms of the equity market right now the Dow was weaker by tenth of one percent S. and P. five hundred down about three tenths of one percent the nasdaq composite meantime weaker by about seven tenths of one percent terms of eco data the numbers on weekly jobless claims much stronger than forecast we're now at a four week low but the manufacturing PMI here in the states a reading of forty nine nine for the month of August that echoed some of the weakness of we had coming out of Germany the manufacturing PMI their weaker for a seventh straight month contraction below fifty although on the positive side for Germany services about four cast ten year treasury right now with the yield of one point five nine percent you're caught up on markets let's get back to Lisa and Paul this is Bloomberg markets with Lisa from it's in polls we radio to Margie Powell will we're hoping at least will be some sort of definitive freed on whether or not the federal reserve will cut rates as much as investors are hoping most likely he will.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Mickey Levy chief economist at Bernburg capital markets with a focus on the Asia Pacific region, which seems to be the focus of markets over the last several months. It seems Mickey good to talk with you this morning. We are as many market. Participants are trying to figure out what comes next in the US China trade dispute. Where do you see this going? Critical point is the whole issue has gone way beyond and focuses on intellectual property and related issues in that regard. I do expect this current impasse to be broken with some kind of agreement on some of some of trade and tariff related issues. I think. The debate and and scuffle on intellectual property is going to continue to keep in mind is. Some of these, like, borrowing actual pretty and requiring foreign companies. To turn over their actual property. You know, Detroit dentures this is this is part of this is a critical factor. That is it is lifted China from being a poor country into into an economic superpower, America's not willing to give it up right away. So we look for some breakthrough not on everything and likely to continue teacher. All right. So how do you read the bond markets? Read on what's been happening in terms of the heightened rhetoric we've seen on both sides. Well, I think that I think the lower farm yields are reflecting a confluence of factors including economic slump. And this is related to real problems and challenges in Europe. China's not just negotiations with the US, but also China's growth is slowing. Then you have also industrial slump in the United States with a moderate inventory overhanging to be unwound. We can't we can't lose sight of the Federal Reserve and other central banks are folding massive amounts of sovereign bonds and keeping interest rates really low inflation. Confluence of events are. Toward lower on yoga being. By the concern that, that things might unravel in the economy. So we've seen this before we had an industrial in two thousand fifteen sixteen late two thousand fifteen look like the wheels were coming off the China and much lower than they are now. Were down one point six to one point seven range, and then and then another episode was late. Two thousand eighteen were yields fell very sharply before. I don't think the US is going to fall into recession once again industrial but not a recession and just like the other episodes of the markets will way out of us. And, yes, I do some you know, agreement to agree between the US and China will will break the current impasse, if not Saul all the all of the critical issues, they face only about a minute left. You mentioned that inventory overhang that hung a lot in the read of first quarter GDP. We got the first time around. We got the first revision coming out later this morning expecting any major changes to that. We three very well could see another slightly downward revision but I think the critical point about the inventory. Overhang is appro- visit. Because because this is slumped in, in product demand. And she won and what is suggesting in to to the Renou, and maybe three. Final sales by the okay yield cheating people that will cut production. Try to. And a little a week, JD PM will maybe perpetuate market concerns about about weaker economic growth. Mickey Levy chief economist berenberg capital markets. Nice to talk with you this morning. And again, the revised first quarter GDP comes out at eight thirty A M, Wall Street time is five twenty four on Wall Street right now straight ahead on Bloomberg daybreak. We're going to hear from Morgan Stanley CEO, James Gorman about the risks to the financial markets. Plus, all the latest news in business economics and finance development futures pointing to a higher open for equities on Wall Street s and p.
"chief economist" Discussed on Outcomes Rocket
"Two thousand financial times top ten digital management teams in five, Dr Kennedy joined GE healthcare, as chief economist and received the CEO's president's award for creating a team to drive market access at GE. She was a globe. The head of marketing operations and managed in innovation portfolio that lead GE's healthcare strategy, which the company grew two billion dollars in nine she was awarded the vice-chairman's award for John rice, for the creation of the N launch of GE's six billion dollars. Healthy magic nation innovation incubator. She's got a long list of accolades, including awards from the UN, the White House idea the triple negative foundation and the national association of executives really, really excited the dive into her expertise, today, some of the other things she's involved with our, Ted med a singularity university. So the list is long with that I wanna stop there and open up the microphone to Lisa to welcome to the podcast, Lisa. So glad you're on. Hi saw, thanks so much on. It's a real pleasure, privileged to be invited onto your show. Thank you. And so, is there anything that maybe you wanna fill in on that intro? No, I think you got it all aside from I wish my mom was listening. A lot of cool stuff for sure. That's awesome wall. You'll definitely have to share with her. So she could take a listen. I'd of your parents are like this. But I'm not sure that mine really know what I do. So I'll definitely send them send them this. No, it's, it's Fritz the same as same. So it's it'll be a good one. So a shoutout to Lisa's. Mom. So lisa. Why did you decide to get into the medical sector in a certificate question? And it was an accident. I was finishing my masters in policy management economics in the U K. And then, you know, I was looking to pursue a PHD and you know, I was only twenty three and I really thought that marketing was placed to be my supervisor at the time he talked using economists and you talked me back into economic sets out swipe background, I've, I've been really studying economics until Ben, and he specific area of expertise was health economics is in my twenties. Early twist. I really thought it was going to be just the most boring thing you could possibly do. But as you know, if anything opposite, he just in my PHD, I was able to travel that you THEO Pia. I didn't know anybody. But each day I could travel in a UN truck. I took down a data from about fifteen hundred maybe patients in Addison, baba. I went through patient charts, find drug reactions being able to watch nurses, go out find patients in their houses to make sure that they got the treatment that they needed witnessing what they have to go through and her to get healthcare. We think we have it hardware, who we have really have no idea in US. Yeah. It's such a good point. You know, we tend to be a little near sighted, when it comes to the larger global health issues. Sounds like you got a feel for a lot of the stuff those happening globally. So if you were to design on a hot topic, Lisa that needs to be on every health eaters mind today. What would you say that is, and are you guys approaching it at fifty so I know you probably really want me to save blockchain is, that's what everyone says undistributed leisures for help data and security is really pretty exciting. But instead, I'm gonna go with health coin, you know, I think the innovative finance in finding that unit to measure progress not really into. Acting for the US, if you think about carbon trading will I always inscription? We haven't we've been on a perennial search for the carbon of health and, you know, I think we need to clear way to measure health. Standardize way, I don't think the quality is it when you think about actions and steps to improve it, everyone acknowledges that health is married. Goodwill communists, for sure in so we need units to help us understand. How do we measure progress better? How do we incentivize it? I how do we maintain competition within the US? How do we get what is essentially a fundamental market failure in healthcare?.
"chief economist" Discussed on KCRW
"Your long everybody, we begin on this Tuesday with a restatement of our every now and then observation that this is a global economy, and we are kind of stuck with it. Come. What may and when what is coming is generally good rising growth in economic optimism. Good fine. When what's coming is less growth in some small degree of economic pessimism. Well, you got to play the Andrew del right? And the global economic hand we are being dealt today comes to us from the International Monetary Fund. IMF get it which is out with its latest forecast on the global economy growth. Yes. But less of it the IMF third forecast of slower growth in six months. He took over not is the chief economist for the doctor welcome to the program. Thank you, you called the global economy this morning and some of your commentary. You said we're at a delicate moment how come why said global growth is projected to slow down to three point three percent in twenty nineteen and we expected coveting twenty twenty and you know, that covers precarious so that's the sense in which this is delicate moment because if any of the downside that we worry about materialize. Now, the recovery that we're expecting a may not come about. Okay. Why are you expecting covering if it's if it's precarious seems like a gutsy call them make well, we certainly seen as a substantial amount of policy combination around the world. I mean, all of the major central banks have shifted to a more accommodative stands we've seen China. Putin a fair amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We certainly seeing some improvement in trade tensions between the US and China at least compared to twenty eighteen so all of those factors, you know, would help a growth going forward, and we expect. See some recovery's and stressed economies that Tina Turkey. So that's where I focused is coming from show. We've got low rates the accommodative policy that you mentioned, but we do still have the specter of a no deal, Brexit or whatever's going to happen over there. We have ongoing U S China trade talks, which again who knows what's gonna happen over there. Get me, then to your to your downside risk that you mentioned. I mean, I'm unavo- main downside risk remains an escalating intrigue tensions, you know. Maybe with other countries in other sectors like autos, a we would like to see a resolution of Brexit with an agreement. That's not a audio Brexit. I mean, these would be some of the important policy missteps to be avoided. Let me get a little more specific. Are you talking American trade policy movement here we are talking about? Yes of eating the US China trade tensions weaken growth weakened investments. Reduced business confidence. So the question is what happens going forward from the US side from any retaliation. Which is why we you know, we say that this is a delicate moment and is important for policy makers to avoid missteps, let me just ask since you mentioned central banks and listeners will hear elsewhere in the program about about the impedance of central banks. And since you led with it in your answer. How critical are central banks and the proper functioning of to the to the future health of global economy. I mean, central Bank policies vase is taken recently the independence of the central Bank are all hugely important for the health of the global economy. They played an important role in reducing downside risks that were showing up towards the end of twenty eighteen and so it is important that they remain independence remain data driven and the the policies are well communicated. So you've been on the job since the first of January, how're you liking it so far it's been it's been a lot of fun. Great. Doc to choose the new ish chief economist at the International Monetary Fund out with your global forecast this morning, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Thank you so much. She mentioned a no deal Brexit, by the way, without getting into the current state of play over in the UK because frankly, one loses track US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this today in congressional testimony, quote, I think at this point secretary said we need to be prepared for a hard Brexit as a very realistic outcome, and of quote, hard Brexit, of course, is a no deal Brexit again. Who knows what the what over there on Wall Street today? Honestly kinda man nobody was really wild about that IMF forecast. We'll have the details when we do the numbers..
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Arjun is chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book investing in the Trump era, how economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But with us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio nice to see you again. Same carol. It's great. And you've got this book. I feel like it's very timely. We were kidding with you Jason. I that. It's a little dance. There's a reminds me of my economic textbooks in college. But tell me what you set out to do. Yes. The the motivation was watching the presidential debates and I wanted to turn them off. Because I said this isn't informing the electorate this is just name calling. And so I said in a time of partisanship. Can't somebody go out explain to the electorate, here's what the issues are all about present views from both sides of the political divide. Try to present evidence to suggest who might be right or not. And then just be a more informed voter. And so how do you cut through all of it because we were talking right before we came on air that we are starting to sense that investors are better maybe a little bit better. As this administration goes on at separating the signal from the noise, you don't see as much of the market fluctuation on a tweet here there and focusing in on the key economic and investment issues. What are they what? So if there are three. Three. What are they what we should be focused on? You know, basically, initially it. I thought the most important were the corporate tax changes and deregulation, and I had the good the bad and the ugly of Trump policies. So the good was I'm not saying from an absolute perspective and saying will be good for the market. Right. And my conclusion was they would be good for the stock market they boost corporate profits. What was the bad? The bad was how did we finance of the tax cuts? They didn't pay themselves. And we're finding out we're facing a trillion dollar budget deficit in the coming year. The treasury has admitted that so that goes hand in hand with rising bond yields so that's the bad. And then of course, what's the ugly? I'm an international economist by training. And what worries me is with Trump follow through on his rhetoric, and he has big time this year. And I think with the world is worried about. Is our economy's fine. But I look at the overseas economies they're softening in China and emerging economies Europe. And if we get into a major trade war, nobody knows how will play out. But it can sure you one thing nobody wins. That's my ugly. That's interesting. All right. So we've heard also President Trump talk about even more tax breaks for some and some and going onto trade policy. Some say it is smart to kind of rework some of these policies that were in a different environment. That some of them are old what what are the policies that you think would make the biggest difference to the US economy right now? So Carol to that we don't need more tax cuts. In fact, I thought we needed tax reform simplify the tax code to make it easier. And if you if you give somebody a tax break, you gotta take away a tax loophole. And Ronald Reagan learned that in one thousand nine hundred eighty six so so basically, I'm not in favor of more tax cuts. I think the thing that everybody said would have made sense and might still make sense is public sector infrastructure structure. And it's amazing. Everybody agrees that it's the thing to do. Right. Still. It's still and there's a lot of money as we know. Jason I talked to a lot of the private equity guys have been raising these billions of dollars in funds and not being put to work. That's right. And I'm saying, so that's what should happen. But let me tell you why won't happen. Again. It comes down to the budget deficit not just for a year. Carol I'm talking for the foreseeable future is out of sight. And so even the president has had to go to his various agencies and say all right everybody for next year cut spending by ten percent. So. It doesn't add up. They're not going to be able to figure out a you know, how to do this. So I wish we had started with it. And I'm afraid it's too late right now. So you come out of writing this book. Are you more optimistic about the investment possibilities now less optimistic about where where you were when you went in? I'd say less optimistic. I think initially there was the basis for. If they stimulate the economy, and so far to be fair to the president that's worked corporate profits record highs. But what I'm basically saying Jason is okay. Now, though, we have to pay for some of the Bill, and as I say, I believe that interest rates are headed higher on not because of inflation. It's just there's a huge amount of borrowing going on the economy strong. So that's gonna be a headwind for the stock market. And then on top of that, I've got a very strong dollar which Trump doesn't want right because he knows that hurts American exporters. But guess what if you are growing faster than the rest of the world? You've got rising rates capital comes in. So I think that we're going to face more headwinds. And that's why tell everybody I'm not perish. But I tell everybody listen this time to be more cautious of those glorious returns of last year. Just be grateful. You got him right, greedy, some basic economic fundamentals going on right in terms of higher rates capital flows. It's really it's really fascinating. Thank you so much. Thank you. Great to have you back here. Next Arjun chief economist at fort Washington investment advisers, his book is investing in the Trump era economic policies impact financial markets. He's based in Virginia. But again was joining us in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio coming up on the other side of the break. We'll get a check on your top business stories. We did see a headline crossing edgy out with their third quarter just at loss of thirty four cents a share versus an estimate of six cents a.
"chief economist" Discussed on Talk 1300 AM
"The chief economist for i trust as we follow his his commentary daylight he's he's a big contributor to the fox business network as well and he he basically believes that and he's holding his forecast of twenty eight thousand five hundred dow and a thirty one hundred snp which is you know about fifteen percent higher than it is right now he has not changed that standard to despite the correction we've seen despite the trade wars despite the uptick of interest rates and he said it could be higher but he's still holding to that twenty eight five on the dow and thirty one hundred on the smp and he thinks that the trade negotiations ship usually will provide good things and you know he expects the earnings to continue to grow for the full year about fifteen percent and he's a big proponent on on market's doing better as we head through the balance of this year deductive kelly would j p morgan who's another economists that we follow and he's been on the show and bryant westbury westbury's been on our show his analysis is is is based on fundamentals and valuations and positioning and he he thinks you know the huge amount of information that's out there on the internet is often wrong it's often dangerous and he constantly rejects the fundamentals on the economy on interest rates and earnings anything's you know nothing has changed for money conomic growth point of view and he's he feels the tax cuts will will give us economic growth the jobs report will be better and better confidence is going to be there and spending is going to increase and spite you know the uptick at the at the the gasoline pump the rise in oil prices does have effects on the economy there's no doubt about it you know higher gasoline prices may restrain slightly in my opinion consumer spending but the increase in energy exploration because of the increase in oil prices does imply more capital spending out there that's going to add to the gross domestic product growth the gdp and for the fed policymakers the key questions whether the higher cost of transporting goods maybe passed along to consumer prices in this adds to the difficulties that the fed has an achieving a soft landing for the economy in the.
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News
"The past days see store for details and terms and conditions a fight brewing over a trump administration decision to add a question about citizenship status to the twenty twenty us census ap washington correspondent saga megani says it's facing opposition especially in california the administration says asking for citizenship information is helpful on a number of fronts specifically to help us better comply with the voting rights act but democrats are blasting a move they say will intimidate immigrants meant to try to drive certain populations away from completing the form california attorney general havi airbus sarah says that would skew each community's numbers affecting everything from seats in the us house to federal funding california and other states say they're suing the administration over the change saga megani at the white house a democratic senators demanding answers from the national rifle association ap correspondent matt small says it has to do with money coming in from overseas senator ron wyden of oregon wants the national rifle association to turn over information about funding it receives from foreign sources and how it spins that money the ranking democrat on the senate finance committee has asked the group for a detailed breakdown of their media buys over the past three years purchased with foreign funds is also seeking communications and other internal nra metrics regarding those media campaigns but the nra insists that while it received some foreign funding it says none of the money is spent on elections a left leaning advocacy group has asked the federal election commission to investigate whether an ally of russia's president gave to the nra during the two thousand sixteen presidential campaign matt small washington pending home sales in the us picked up last month after falling five percent in january the national association of realtors says it's pending sales index rose three point one percent in february two one hundred seven point five despite the uptick the index is still down four point one percent from a year earlier chief chief economist blames the uneven performance at a shortage of homes on the market pending sales surged ten point three percent in the northeast rose three percent in the south but eked out gains of just point seven percents in the midwest and point four percent in the west what a matchup.
"chief economist" Discussed on KQED Radio
"More than a hundred gop lawmakers sent a letter to the president yesterday urging him to reconsider the european union said it would retaliate they in swonk is chief economist at accounting firm grain thornton according to important thing is now markets are hoping now be scaled back but at the end of the day we are moving gown and shifting course in terms of protectionism and then go it's important to remember protectionism is something that always benefit semi minority over the majority in an economy and that's a dangerous route to czech shifting gears international to what's going on here at home tomorrow we expect to get the employment report from the commerce department what are you looking for what we had regime and montored january there was a lot of workers who literally couldn't get to work particularly in the south because if unusually harsh winter weather which means the composition of games in the month of january we're more high wage workers they got to work forgot paid any ways than what we usually see in a month the wage data in the month of february as those low wage workers come back to work could be much softer than we saw in the month of january and that could be something that markets are very focused on and they could misery debt as a slowdown in wage gains rather than just these month to month distortions and what it means for the trajectory on interest rate hikes this year chief economist at grant thornton and i'll let's do numbers the dow jones industrial average is up thirty seven point says less than twotenths percent the smp 500 is up about twotenths percent the nasdaq is up twotenths of percent 10year treasury elders at two point eight five percent the senate is expected to vote on a bipartisan bill possibly as early as today that will free up small and midsize community banks from the regulations but in place after the financial crisis one prevision would relax how the bank's report who gets housing loans.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling assets off of their balance sheet are they selling them or they learning them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow that is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of larger than bactor so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off the there were mergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real tenure yeltsin right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the average is about two percent were sold other words when you when we say we'll he'll real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very its by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding this really no other word to describe that above the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"My guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates vetter tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance sheet are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they won't your mind sending us they are doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is that the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow god is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of largely factors so you should prize that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet ayatollah the street gets paid so of course us what matters the moves a little classic confirmation biased so what about the idea of the fed isn't so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization so i went back and looked at tech real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent absolutely there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say will he'll real adjusted for inflation 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that above the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I'm barry ritholtz you're listening to masters in business on bloomberg radio my guest today is constance hunter she is the chief economist at accounting giant kpmg let's talk a little bit about the state of the economy today and there are so many different things we could go over i have to start with the issue of the federal reserve tightening normalizing first what what should we call with the federal reserve is doing well they're definitely raising rates their tightening okay they're selling acids half of their balance are they selling them or they lining them just roll off when they vote your mind sending us they're doing both that is in effect a tightening now there's debate about this right right is it the stock of the fed's balance sheets that is the size of the balance sheet or is it the flow the jet is the change and generally speaking the fed thinks it's the stock wall street thinks it's the flow the fed might end up being right or i think the fed is being proven correct because we look at 10year yields and they're much lower than they were for example in 2014 but that's due to a kind of lord's factors so you surprised that wall street looks at the flow as opposed to the balance sheet i atto the street gets paid so of course that's what matters the moves a little classic confirmation bias so what about the idea of the fed is in so much eight ning as were still at very accommodative rates and they're just getting off their emergency footing this is really normalization sir so i went back and looked at 10 real 10year yields right over the last four decades averages about two percent finally there's wide variations but the averages about two percent were donald woods when you when we say lille real adjusted for inflation right 10year yields we are now almost zero still very calm we are very it's by that metric we are still pretty accommodate emergency funding there's really no other way to describe that by the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Is constance hunter she is the chief economist at kpmg wish she overseas aid broad portfolio of different of business sectors let's jump right into where we are in the modern economy from the perspective of a big accounting and consulting firm they they split the two pieces in two different groups is that right so we have some regulatory requirements that they create chinese walls and we there are a long list of advisory services that we cannot offer to our audit client right and but this is a great businessman because it it diversifies our business we have audit and tax mmhmm and then we have our entire advisory business which is very diverse so we do things like data analytics we do things we vote entire business called people and change which when you think about what is happening in the labor force and the way technology is impacting firms and how they're managing for that how their retrain their workers that's a that's a huge practice for us for example showed none of course risk compliance all that other stuff on either traditionally expect someone like kpmg to do so you originally were on the biocide you were an investor in fixed income an alternative investments how has that colored how you see the world of economics whether it's for an audit slash consulting firm or anyone else what does coming from the biocide duty your economic perspective fall for me i think it's critical to my ads and and that is that i i've spent most of my career using economics to make investment decisions and.
"chief economist" Discussed on BBC Radio 4
"Chief economist of the imf said the overarching risk is complacency we've seen other markets hit many many record highs we have uh this idea rolf that growth is hiding some of these big structural problems and these big structural problem is all things like inequality inequality he within countries who have within countries inequality between generations between countries here there's a big push on gender equality just twenty one percent of the delegates here are women now that's a record high but still a remarkably low number and israel worries that although there is global growth is not global growth that is being shed in a way that many people think he should be in people look at the events hair and the the big dinners in the glamour and they won the weather capitalism is really working for them but really the big issue will be here is looking towards the end of the week and the arrival of president trump the firstserving president to visit double since president clinton the year two thousand what's hone will he set here will he b combative about the way america is leading the world and you should all get on the way that where operating and not worry so much by global trade or will he be more conciliatary now that'll be the really interesting part of this whole event and we'll broadcasters program from dennis on that day on friday thanks komo twenty four minutes past seven turkish forces and still on the attack on the border between turkey and syria they're trying to throw kurdish forces are northern syria with worrying implications for turkey's relationship with nature will act made better shonka is a turkish mp heads the turkish delegation to the nato parliamentary assembly and he's on the line so is color who goal the new york times bureau chief and i think keleti you are actually on the border what's happening at the moment they they're in today three and the pushing in but they haven't got very far they've they've entered to several miles into our free in this two kurdish enclave of northern syria but they're taking that time they using air jetson unborn quite lord but the going quite slowly so far towards we march in the town of our but they're not there yet because they have had a casualty overnight the.
"chief economist" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410
"With your even forty dead news headlines on keep leads a video posted on youtube joe's oregon state police talked with the suspect accused of starting the massive eagle creek fire the columbia river gorge on saturday it's been identified as a fifteen year old boy who was setting off illegal fireworks the video post by a witness showed police talking to that suspect his careless nail legal actions are believed to have ignited the you go creek canyon fire oregon state police said the suspect was contacted by law enforcement of the parking lot of the eagle creek trail head just as the fire started on saturday that team has not been arrested no formal charges have been filed at this time thus to leave the teen and others were using fireworks along the eagle creek trailed troopers are asking anyone who were firework drug or explosions on saturday near the eagle creek trail or punchbowl falls to notify them that the oregon state police officers four the money station on key points chief economist at the renaissance macro well just to reiterate vice chair fan stanley fischer has announced his resignation from the federal reserve effective mid october uh cited personal reasons joining me in studio here are michael mckee are economics editor matt buzzer who recovers the fed uh marta schenker executive senior executive editor and now we've got carl riccadonna our uh economists for bloomberg intelligence so carl go ahead e on pounds worth a penny go ahead what are your thoughts about all this sure well this the the unwritten rule of being the vicechair is dead thou shalt not disagree with the chair so what yellen goes from having a defect defacto two votes on the committee having just one which means that she's going to have a harder push to convince policymakers to stay on course for rate hike by end so i think this says significantly reduces said those those chances as a number of other voting members of the committee including governor brainard yesterday expressed reserve about any additional lower rate tightening and this is the the.
"chief economist" Discussed on Vox's The Weeds
"We are so focused on what the trump administration is doing that i think it is sometimes hard to keep an eye on what they are not doing there is no economic theory currently animating the trump administration and their policies except for a generalised orientation towards deregulation they don't have a chief economist like the caa does not have a a chief economist appointed to it they are not running any kind of overall theory i mean towards the end of the obama administration as you know there was something interesting beating papin their caa with jason furhman around trying to look at some of this monopolistic stafan and trying to think about how to do it they began talking about occupational licensing and and trying to develop again like okay we did all this stimulus and financial rescue things clearly and fix the economy even averted or worse catastrophe what do we have to do next and and something i do think is a pity on right now and and the failure is it there is no work in any serious way happening in the trump indecision to diagnose the problems in theory he ran on and come up with something to do about them they want to do tax reform but they do not know what kind or really why they want to deregulate 'cause like their friends don't like regulations but again it's not a targeted kind of approach and i just this is bad like be these these papers was saying there's something deeply fundamentally wrong in the american economy even if the economy as a whole is still growing okay and still creating jobs and so even grading income and i am not sure that there i think we are justin appeared in the trump administration of drift on this might be considered part of the for back half obama when they did not have really the power to pass much but this is not.
"chief economist" Discussed on AP News
"Chief economist gospel shea calls the lives jobs report excellent not only did we had a lot of jobs over the month but we also saw average hourly earnings rise we saw upward revisions to job growth in may and april as well in economy is added about one hundred ninety four thousand jobs on average over the last three months which is a very good number because the labor department report wasn't expected to be bad but they weren't expecting it to be so good this is above expectations and so certainly if the economies creating two hundred thousand jobs a month that means that we're quickly absorbing slack in the labour market and the unemployed people were being put back to work despite the big game the jobless rate still matched up a tenth of a percent to four point four percent something jose says isn't a bad thing because it means more time out of work americans resumed their search we saw about three hundred and sixty thousand more people in the labor force in in june from may uh that means people are feeling more confident than the job market uh and so that should be taken as a good sign that people are feeling their prospects of getting the job or good in so they're coming back to look for work however while more jobs are being created the rate of pay is not corresponding and he says there are a couple of reasons why average pay rose just two and a half percent in june one percent below the pace typical of a healthy economy inflation is low so if we look at after inflation wages they they look a little bit better but also businesses are reluctant to raise pay up but i think is is the job market gets tighter is businesses compete more for workers we will see stronger wage growth and so i think by this time next year will see wage growth of above three percent robust jobs report means the us economy remains resilience and could signal another interest rate hike from.