35 Burst results for "Chatham House"
President-elect Joe Biden declares "clear victory" and calls for unity
"After a cliffhanger vote count, Mr Biden is projected to have won the states of Pennsylvania and Nevada, taking him over the crucial threshold of 270 electoral college votes. President elect up to the stage a few hours ago to officially declare victory in front of a crowd in his hometown of Wellington, Delaware. The people of this nation have spoken. They've delivered us a clear victory. A convincing victory. Victory. For we, the people Way one with the most votes ever cast from presidential ticket in the nation. Joe Biden has said he wants to restore the soul of the United States and Americans needed to stop treating their political opponents as enemies call for unity was echoed by the vice president elect Kamila Harris. You chose hope. And unity, decency, Science and, yes, truth you chose Joe Biden as the next president. And Joe is a healer, a uniter, a tested and steady hand. One person who knows Joe Biden well as Amy Pope. She worked alongside him for a number of years. In her former role, is US deputy Homeland security adviser to President Obama. She's now an associate fellow at the think tank Chatham house and she joins me now. Amy, What kind of President Will Joe Biden B? How will he differ from the last Democratic party President Barack Obama. Joe Biden is really a kind of Washington expert, Hey, has a long history in the Senate. He knows many, many, many of the key political influencers and legislators in Washington and he's the kind of person who just has gotten to know them and build relationships with them on And for that reason, I think he's coming in at the right time in terms of trying to build relationships across the island and get something done. Do you think that he really is going to be able T turn that to his advantage? It just seems that there's so much animosity in US politics right now. I think it's going to be tough. And I think even for someone like Mitch McConnell, with whom who's the Senate majority leader with whom the president elect has a strong relationship, there will be pressures on him not to find common ground and not to cooperate. But on the flip side, there are a lot of Americans who are looking for Congress and the president to work together. Who are looking for some level of functioning capacity within Washington. They'll feel that pressure to it's hard to see how this will play out, and it'll depend frankly, about what the voters were saying to their members. Amy, I'm going to bring my guests in
UK and Germany's different approaches to the pandemic
"The UK and Germany are both leading democracies and not far apart on the globe. They took very different approaches to the pandemic with very different results the UK as suffered the most covid nineteen deaths in Europe Germany with a much bigger population has lost far fewer people. NPR's correspondent in each country rob Schmitz in Berlin and Frank Langfitt in London had been talking among themselves. Hey Rob Frank. So tell me what happened in the UK. were. So many mistakes a big reason is the government honestly doesn't really seem to think ahead Boris Johnson you remember he sold Brexit to the British people in two thousand sixteen with no plan on how to execute it. So in the virus began spreading here Johnson course he's now prime minister. He was slow to recognize the threat here he is on March Third I was at movie night. where I think the rush if you credit ours patience and I shook hands of everybody. So by April Johnson an icy ICU covid nineteen I was talking to you in Boyd he's a member of the scientific group that advises the government. The UK didn't really grasped the speed with which the epidemic was entering the country under are all sorts of reasons for that, some of which are to. Lack of organisational capability sometimes when there's very high uncertainty, you simply have to shut things down really quickly and frank here in. Germany. That's what they did on January twenty seven. The first known case of coronavirus was sent to Clemson ventner chief physician at the Munich Schwab in clinic we have very similar like the boys gall. Be always prepare. Then you're watched what was happening in Italy in January where the virus was spreading pretty fast and we knew that we have to flatten the curve. So even before the first case of Covid nineteen and Germany, he was working on slowing its progress and he says the German government was involved from day one asking us what do you need we? We? We didn't have to ask them for example, Germany already had a big supply of ICU beds clouds Deutsche is at the Federation of German. You know that it's been a long debate on whether we had too many intensive care beds that warned us that often obviously that debate is over Deutsche says, Germany also has a lot of hospitals. If you take all the beds in all of Germany's hospitals, you get four times more per capita than what the UK has rob. You had slack in your system in Germany there. Was Not much here because the government had been cutting funding to the National Health Service for years, the hospitals were afraid of getting swamped with Cova patients. So they sent elderly patients back to nursing homes some broad cove with them infected other residents at least twenty, thousand nursing home residents died of covid. That's terrible in while in Germany, deaths were prevented through testing and contact tracing. The health authority in Berlin district of Hong, Kong and operator talks to man at conduct with a positive case, there are around four hundred call centers like this across Germany Peters directs this one become Austin We have traffic wardens and librarians working for us. We've recruited gardeners from parks and recreation Germany had a lot of manpower and testing to infrastructure filled with labs and university medical centers across the country. You know here the government misread the corona virus they thought it was going to spread as quickly as the flu. They didn't even try to develop a testing system where we steward he's a former British cabinet minister they were very, very confident. And slightly arrogant neb beliefs that they understood this disease better than other countries, I think the lack of scientific education amongst a lot of the British political elite meant that they were very reluctant to challenge scientists but here, Germany. Frank. A trained scientist is at the helm and Chancellor Angela Merkel. gave one of the most powerful and heartfelt speeches in her life when she made a rare national address on March. Eighteenth dusted fees above in then. Comes here. I have absolutely no doubt that we will overcome this crisis. How many victims will it claim? How many loved ones lose to a large extent? The answer lies in our own hands miracle has a doctorate in quantum chemistry, and in another speech, she patiently explain how important it was for Germany to reduce the viruses reproduction rate. Her tone was always humble and deadly serious. I'm. Doing this Icefield is off that. We are thin ice. This is a situation in which caution not over-confidence is the order of the day it really different here Johnson studied classics at Oxford University. He was president the debating society and as Prime Minister he's tried to rally the country with rhetoric. We must act like any wartime government and do whatever it takes to support our economy Johnson's Ori helped win a landslide election last year, but a pandemic, of course, not a campaign. Here's where. We store again he sees himself as somebody who is encouraging a rugby team for nineteen minute match telling them that fantastic to make them play. Well, he doesn't primarily see himself as somebody whose job is to get into uncomfortable details were chew over policy and strategy but frank, it's this chewing over of policy and strategy. This technocratic nature of the German government that may have also contributed to Germany's success hunts could is senior research fellow at Chatham House this sort of doubling down on technocracy. Populism has now been discredited by the Corona Virus. He says, that's potentially dangerous. If technocrats feel too emboldened, there might be an even bigger growth populist backlash in the future some people will blame Johnson for Britain's handling of covid campaigner. He thinks Johnson's more symptoms than 'cause captors just written a book called why the Germans do it better notes from grownup country. We've descended into believing that somehow because we always muddled through in the past muddling through is a recipe that will get us through in the future. So rob where's Germany now with crow verse? Well cases are rising deaths are not that tells us these new cases are from young people, children across the country are back in classrooms, but the German government seems so far. Okay. With the dangers of this, there remains a strong infrastructure of hospital beds, testing, tracing Germany fields, prepared and Chancellor Angela Merkel's popularity ratings are sky high eighty, six percent. WOW cases rising rapidly to we've got new strictures but Johnson actually had trouble explaining them to the nation recently the last surveys Ron Johnson is under forty percent approval rating testing capacity here still can't meet demand. And Winter's coming. NPR London correspondent Frank Langfitt, and Berlin correspondent. Rob? Schmitz.
Lebanon: Economic Meltdown Leaves Country on the Brink of Collapse
"Hello and welcome to the foreign desk I'm Andrew. Mullah guests today, Lena Katina and Layla. Milana Allen Lena Katina is the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House and Layla Moulana. Allen is France twenty four's correspondent in Beirut. Welcome both to the program Leyla. I'll start with you in Lebanon if one was to take a stroll through by route right now today. What indications would you see of the problems? Lebanon is having. Closed shops and bars people inside shops, doing things like asking the cashier to stop touching items when they get to a certain price on the phone to their partners, trying to figure out how many items they can afford to buy their no prices now on items in most shots because they're changing every day, people still queuing outside banks trying to get them money. People going through bins of his point trying to find food, I don't want to state situation. You know we're not chaos yet. Some people have been saying, but it is very very clear that the situation is getting increasingly discover people. Very consent.
How to network digitally in a pandemic
"DOT com. We're in a pandemic. We can't go to conferences. Shmooze and network. So what do we do how to network digitally? Well I had a nice conversation recently with the analyst Jeremiah Al.. About just what to do, he's got some good ideas. Have a listen. So now. You WanNa. Get invited to other people's zoom sessions. And you and the goal is to obviously sometimes host your own, but when you get invited to other people's zooms, you see them and you start to network those especially if the repeating events. Like what what would, what would examples so one of my contacts? He was running. HR At a self driving car company in San Francisco and he got laid off, so he started a think. Tank and I am now part of this private group. They're inviting amazing. Cool people into that at a constant basis and I get to meet some of the world's thinkers, and they invite somebody else in return, and we meet twice a month for an hour offer ninety minutes, and and we talk about the topics of the day, and it's off the record of Chatham House rules, and so that's basically like a virtual. Salon that's that's happening in so getting invited to those and showing your face that's critical and then chiming in and being active in the comments on other people are talking, and then you and then you see if there's somebody you want to engage with them as linked in contact if it's professional, if you really really jive with them, send them a facebook friend request so yeah, that's what I'm doing an unfair. Frankly you can meet more people even faster and connect with them digitally as well. How do you get invited to assume session? you just have to watch people who are saying hosting zoom sessions, or you talk with people in the back channel, which means in private message around interesting topics and see who's leaving comments on your threads around interesting topics and say should we started digital salon, or are you hosting a digital salon or or WHO's hosting? Sometimes schedules are listed in facebook on the on the calendar, and that's one way to find that out but it's kind of word of mouth. You say it's easier to meet digitally than it is in person. Yes Here's why amplify yes, because you can quickly connect to them on linked or facebook, while you're in that session, and then you have that contact versus the awkward. -Ness of seeing somebody you connect with shake hands, and you don't ask for their business quarter you do they don't have it. You fumble. Okay I'll find you online, and then you don't reconnect so technically you can establish a long term connection. With a few clicks that you might not have of course you're missing that visceral. That human element you're passing. Or motions or the way that that handshake feels compared to where the the center that person what are they wearing? You miss that so you have to make up for it by the long term digital connections. And how important is linked? It's for me. It's not the conversational like the ongoing relationship region. That's where facebook and twitter is enabling that, but it's a way to to signal that you have that connection with them for professional reasons and also to tell your network. You're connected to somebody who you think is. Has something important to say or is important, so I would say it's less important. But, if you're out of work, which a lot of people are and you're starting your day and you know a Michael Shea was always pounding the pavement. Right so if you're pounding the payment, which you're not going to do your pending the payment on your computer on your computer, right? So where would you I? It's Wednesday morning. You're laid off the week before you gotta pound the pavement on your computer. Give me a five places. You're going to go in order. Where do you start? So I, I I've published content on my own websites. My own blogs or medium, and then I share content that attracts people. That's I think that's the really critical thing and I've been a small business owner for ten years. As I want to track people I don't want to chase them. So I. I want to publish a unique video or point of view or thoughtful analysis and I think that's really how I try to
Kataib Hezbollah: Iraq condemns US attacks on Iran-backed militia
"There's been condemnation today from many corners of the Middle East in response to US airstrikes on five locations in Iraq and Syria Iraq's prime minister says the strikes will have dangerous consequences the Pentagon announced to these strikes yesterday and said they were targeting and Runyon backed militia group called could top Hezbollah the US blames that group for killing an American contractor in a rocket attack last Friday so what might this mean for the region and for US forces stationed rare questions to put to were not Mansur he's a Middle East analyst with foreign policy think tank Chatham house in London and he joins us now from very busy streets at rush hour in London were not mince or welcome thanks for having me the more about this group could top has belong which I mentioned is it's a militia group it's mostly Iraqis but it is backed by Iran what does that mean what kind of support to get from Iran Qatar Hezbollah is one of the several militias that have existed in Iraq for quite sometime now it's part of a group known as the popular mobilization units that have been fighting at times alongside the Iraqi state it was part of the fight against ISIS it's known to be one of those groups that's very close to Iran and the name from so many to ask are they linked to Lebanese Hezbollah which we hear so much about not formally not institutionally could've Hezbollah is kind of some people would refer to them as the Iraqi has a bottle these groups have relations with each other they have at times they share training with each other but they're in different fields no U. S. secretary of state Mike Pompeii came out and blamed Iran specifically for this death of an American contractor last week do we know you mention that they work closely with the run but how much control does around actually have over this group's activities the word proxies are often used to describe many of these militias and often times we push back and say well some of them actually have their own agendas this group could top has a ball is known to be closer to Iran in that kind of level of products in as you know it works with Iran in so far as their strategies a line that could be fighting ISIS or it could be any other sort of strategy that Iran would have been would need some local forces like these Iraqi men who make up could have his villa as I mentioned these strikes have been not well received in the region are rockets criticize them a Ron has criticized him tell me a little bit more about how this is playing in the broader Middle East the biggest thing to look out for is the relationship between the Americans and the Iraqi government in the past the American president would called the Iraqi prime minister almost weekly in the days of bush in early Obama what's happened now is the U. S. a really lost a lot of their institutional allies in the Iraqi state and so this becomes indicative of when the Americans do pursue something like this air strike they're gonna continue to face stronger and stronger condemnation by the Iraqi government the president prime minister and speaker of the parliament of all come out condemning these attacks as encroachments on Iraq's sovereignty the US is you know says this was self defense said Hey we have been warning that we were going to hit back if attacks continued secretary of state my compare secretary of defense asper came out yesterday and said if these attacks continue there's going to be a response yeah and your husband this **** for tat kind of after the fight against ISIS because keep in mind the US and Iran were on the same side and the fight against ISIS the question then came what's going to happen I mean the US and Iran are clearly two foes now just because they had this convenient enemy that kept them together doesn't mean that they're always going to be out that type of allies and they weren't allies of course however it seems that there was a norm you know in the last few years that they'd neither side really wanted to fight in Iraq neither side wanted to just destabilize and undo what they spent years re doing you know fighting isis in rebuilding the state and so the attention was often other places and I think what we've seen this week suggested that these sites are now willing to move past that norm which is to not destabilize Iraq and this could be a potentially destabilizing moment that is renowned Mansur Middle East analyst at Chatham house we have been speaking with him from London thanks very much thank you
Shinzo Abe Becomes Japan’s Longest-Serving Prime Minister
"Shinzo our prime. My Minister of Japan will today be celebrating. What would have seemed a decade or so back an unlikely milestone? He is now the longest serving prime minister. In Japan's history is brief stint from two thousand six to two thousand seven added to the longest stretch has enjoyed since two thousand twelve has overhauled the benchmark set by. Juke Cuts Toro three times. Prime Minister of a very different Japan in the early years of the twentieth century. Nobody serves as long as a house without tapping into something in their electorate. So in our base case Wat- one joined with more on this Spicer David Warren Former UK ambassador to Japan now Associate Fellow with the Asia Pacific Program At Chatham House David thank you for joining us rb. Does he have a particular singular secret. Is there one thing about him which is got into where he's got to and kept him there i. It's hard to say that he does although he's clearly a competent politician in Japanese terms. And he's come to the premiership of Japan of course after a period of intense political volatility extending over decades in Japanese politics. Prime Minister for the most part have come and gone and there's genuine public Cynicism and discontent with the fragile nature of Jap the Japanese politics so in a sense he benefited from having come after a period of great great Great Tab instability and he benefited also from having a very weak opposition during this period because the opposition party which was in government government three years between two thousand nine and two thousand twelve when it was cold. Democratic Party of Japan has been itself Rhythm With factions and essentially all over the place in terms of being able to land any punches on the Liberal Democratic Party government. So you haven't any competition in the end. He hasn't much competition from outside the party. And he's given the Japanese people a sense of stability which I think they have respected. So you wouldn't say there's an RB ISM as such. There is not a philosophical cornerstone to him philosophical cornerstone to him. But I'm not certain. It's one shared by the Jersey of Japanese people originally from the nationalist wing of the Liberal Democratic Party Much of his Political philosophy is good on. We habilitation his grandfather who was prime minister of Japan in the nineteen fifties and had a very problematical record in the nineteen thirties and forties during Japan's occupation career and four in China. And he has a nationalist. I think wants to both rehabilitate Prime Minister Kitchen. Gran- grandfather's father's mutation and also to turn the page so to speak on Japan's problematic history in ways. which do not necessitate? The next generation of Japanese need having to grapple as much with the the difficult politics of apology that other innovations have had to do But that nationalism is ten uh-huh by a political pragmatism of the recognition that He needs to fix the Japanese economy. Most Japanese voices are more worried about economic issues the constitutional nationally issues and that. Whatever obeys nationalist impulse maybe he needs to ventilate them in ways which staint disturb Japan's regional neighbours particularly China and Korea He had a very different sense of twentieth century. History in in that regard with China. He's got the relationship back onto something more of an even Keel career. It's much more difficult than well. How successful do you think he has been the not very by the sound of it? IN-IN addressing those difficult relationships with its neighbors in the region often overhung as they are by a history of world war. Two Cudi of done more. Well he's been successful with China. I think it's fair to say you inherited a difficult situation with China in in two thousand twelve when he became prime minister. The previous government nationalized the disputed islands in the East China Sea. which had alienated the Chinese Government and lead to a serious deterioration in the relationship nationalism. In the sense to prevent extreme nationalist getting the hands on them relations the China very very difficult and after initial period of tension. In which are they Like some of his predecessors as prime minister visited controversial Ashley yesterday shrine intake I they has invested considerable effort in establishing more of a relationship with Xi Jinping and getting the relationship back onto who Something more bridging equilibrium. Now there is talk. All Xi Jinping making a state visit to Japan in the spring of Twenty Twenty strong stronger relationships at every level of the Japanese and Chinese governments and there is a serious dialogue not least east because both countries face unpredictable. US Administration This time so the record with China is best and Eve. When I was prime minister in the decade he bested lots of time in improving relations with China to the situation with career is much harder because There is both Business over disputed history particularly on the Korean side and the sense on the Japanese side. The taught to know how to deal with careers concerns the Japanese. This was all settled. Many years ago with extensive reparations agreement that the issue was closed is they are resentful of the Koreans now reopening these historical issues so while I think there is some legitimate criticism of days. Playing the the nationalist card in in in this area there is also the sense Career is is is stay with him to negotiate during your time says Ambassador to Japan. What sense were you able to get all obeys personal style? What what what is he like to deal with as an individual when I wasn't I'm bachelor at the time. When I was in power? He was in power for a year in the mid noughties when he succeeded Prime Minister Junichiro. Well he's only and that was a very unsuccessful time any wasn't well and there were scandals which produced the effectiveness of these government and the U. banned last year? He became prime minister. Game Justin I left Japan at the end of my ambassadorship in twenty twelve. So what do I met him Briefly socially really and observed him as one of a number of leaders of the opposition during that very very febrile terriers. I didn't his His style-obsessed hand but he is certainly Powerful politician he's centralizing politician. He's established strong central control throw of the mechanisms of government of the appointment of key personnel. he is a strong leader in those terms Some in Japan would argue that he is too strong a leader that he centralize too much that he creates a political. Is it gonNA spread by. People are reluctant to step out of line into sagres with what comes out of the center out of the Prime Minister's office that can lead to strong and stable government not one respect it can also lead to Mistakes accounting if they have in certain areas of policy where civil servants have told politicians what they want to hear other than in the objective and and practical advice.
"chatham house" Discussed on WIBC 93.1FM
"Telling customers and everything was half price I thought it would be funny that's funny man constantly face just fainted you told everybody was half off well not everybody but most of them did you tell this family over here I tell you it was half off you know he's a liar you couldn't do that really did I did I thought was very nice of you to shape their Christmas tree well there they're they're Phil was a little clumpy now and you know what friends don't let friends have can't tell a woman that her Phyllis clumpy that's that's going a bridge too far man so they got a Christmas tree from us yesterday and I thought I would go check it out and it was a rocky mountain slam which is very popular treat like at the slimmer because the I have the same tree but it's much thinner D. it does it come in another tall skinny so they they had it was you know they have tried to starburst therapy tips with the puppy dog over the top okay not really okay one up one down one the lab that's the right ill that's that that fill their fill with clumpy I'm not gonna be able to work out with faith and then now she's got close so I was just their their their P. E. tips were just a little little shrubby shrub be like so we like to separate those and then we laid the the puppy dog tale goes over the top we're at Chatham house five seventeen east wall that which is designed to answer these Avenue it's just a one of our lows offers true yes would you stop talking about yourself we're talking about the Christmas tree now look at that poor faces over there she's trying to fanfares turnover clumpy Phil because.
John Bolton, Another national Security adviser, Steps Down
"Used his customary method of twitter to announce the departure of his National Security Adviser John Bolton the the president said he disagreed strongly with his advisors views. Mister Bolton has promised to give his version of events in due course but he was the third national security adviser so far in Mr Trump's administration and he's described as a straight talking foreign policy hook or for more. I'm joined by Amy Pope. She's associate fellow at the US in the Americas program the Chatham House here in London and former deputy homeland security adviser to Barack Obama Amy Welcome back to monocle twenty four. This tipping point came what with the the Camp David invite to the Taliban given by Donald Trump has been bubbling for some time. I think it's been going on for a long time. You look at there have been very very public. situations where the president has directly contradicted his national security advisor whether it's Venezuela or Tehran there have been very very unusual contradictions of the national security advisers position and the fact that they've been done publicly have signaled that the president and John Bolton have not been on the same page for some time. What is it that annoyed. Donald Trump so much about John unbolting there were rumors that it was from the get-go not going to go very well given the fact that Donald Trump didn't like his security advisors moustache. It was as simple as front with this president. I would not put that out of the realm of the possible but when I really think it comes down to is that John Bolton whether or not you agree with his policies had a particular strategy and foreign policy view that governed the way that he it made decisions and that is just fundamentally inconsistent with President this president does not have any sort of national security policy he operates from the HIP he reacts he transacts and that's just I think fundamentally that was just too big of a difference for the two of them to bridge. He was the man the WHO knew US politics how it worked and knew how to get things done. That's right but as we've seen time and again the president didn't has very little patience for people who know how. Washington works if you look at the number of people who have served in in his administration to date some would say these are the so-called grownups in the room. General Mattis General Kelly HR McMaster the former national security advisor they have not lasted very long with this president president he just does not have patients process and again has little patience with strategy and sticking to a particular way of doing business he the and I don't think he likes the constraints that these various actors have imposed on him so I just think this was an inevitable here. The way that John Bolton has been described dubbed by some of the one person said he was a massive neo con on steroids. There was no doubt as to his position was there. What changes did he affect on on. US Security Policy during his tenure well certainly he's pushed for a harder stance on Iran. There's no question there likewise he really pushed this president resident on Venezuela to the point where it looked like the US was intervening in Venezuelan politics which is which is actually a significant departure from where the US foreign policy has been under President Obama for example so he was he was pushing for intervention. He was pushing for a much more military-led military-led strategy hard line policies but what I think might be more disturbing and a more lasting legacy which whether or not disposes intent is not clear here is that he's really undermined the national security process usually these decisions are brought to the president after very careful consideration by policy advisers from across across the US government and by all accounts John Bolton in his haste to be at the president's side and to be the one whispering his ear basically got rid of that structure picture and that considered process that allowed for the fleshing out of various ideas before they went to the president and in its give us an example of things where he his jumped ahead a not had things thought through well. If you look at the China trade war at the moment it is not at all clear that that was considered considered in terms of in terms of a couple of things what are the long long term effects on the US economy and that of course is very is coupled with our national security interest but also what are what is the ability of China to withstand a trade war through US electoral politics at some point this president has to decide died whether he's going to allow the softening of the US economy to impact his own chances at reelection or maintain very strong position on China and by all accounts chance that's not actually been well-considered within the White House so that's just one very tangible example. The second of course was his very public decision on the the Taliban to pull back on the meeting with the Taliban to the surprise of the American public in the foreign policy establishment and and not to have gone through through the process of negotiation of an outcome before that meeting was going to take place you mentioned the the chances of Donald Trump's reelection to what degree has the departure of John. Bolton got anything to do with the fact that Donald Trump would probably like to see himself a foreign policy dealmaker as opposed to a woman go when it comes to next year's elections elections. I think that has everything to do with it. Bolton would have the president maintain a fiercer military posture and the president has and said time and again that it's that it is important to pull troops out of situations including Afghanistan. He's one of his campaign promises. I think that's fundamentally the at odds with where John Bolton have him go so I think at some point. The president is is weighing. How am I going to do these deals that I've promised the American people bowl and as you're going to be able to do that with John. Bolton and I just think the answer is no. Thank you very much indeed for joining us on the line that was amy pope in a moment will go through some of the
France Dangles $15 Billion Bailout for Iran in Effort to Save Nuclear Deal, While Iran is 'Looking to the East'
"We start today with the latest frantic diplomatic efforts to revive the international nuclear deal with iran and attempts to ease tensions in the gulf. Iran's foreign minister has been holding talks with his russian counterpart. Meanwhile his deputy headed to paris to talk about a french proposal that could be with billions of dollars tehran but he's any of this going to save a deal that the united states seemed determined to kill off. Let's speak to some vacuum who's associate fellow the middle east and north africa a program at the think tank chatham house here in london the french proposal <hes> seems to involve extending an enormous line of credit smudges which is fifteen billion dollars to iran in return for iran lifting the threat to step up its atomic work. Is that something that's likely to work. Yes it is ambitious proposal but it's one that the french are dangling in front of the iranians because what they actually need it is a greater access to hard currency in order to survive the pressure of sanctions and be able to sell their oil and repatriate their money buy a cop and of course the united states had said when they pulled out of the deal that they wanted iranian oil exports to fall two zero nine. It's currently i think about three hundred thousand thousand barrels a day. Ron wants to get at least seven hundred thousand but we would the u._s. Determined to stop that is even that much money. Are you going to actually achieve anything to say. It's unclear what the u._s. Intentions are right now. <hes> the president has said repeatedly that he does has want to bring her on back to the negotiating table. He's just pursuing a very hard line strategy in order to do so. I think that if it still does go threw it is going through with a bit of a wink and nod from washington and my reading is because a donald trump does not want iran crisis as he is about to kick off his reelection campaign for next year next november twenty twenty election. We'll meanwhile while <hes> <hes> iran's deputy foreign minister was in paris. His boss was in moscow having tools for lovers so the iranians seem to be keeping their options open awesome part of iran's diversification sanctions survival strategy. They don't wanna put all of their eggs in the european basket which has been a frustrating process and they've had to threaten and bully the europeans to get this kind of response attention and escalate <hes> also so in the persian gulf. If you recall in the summer there were attacks on drones and seizing tankers of alike and so by also looking to russia china now <hes> to provide strategic support but also economic <hes> linkages for iran <hes> it is looking to move away from just <hes> one <hes> geographic focus and protect itself also from <hes> the impact of the us we heard we heard that clip earlier at the start of the program where mohammad zarif saying that iran consider russia and china to be helpful partners and don't have that same view of europe iran has been saying it would step away from the deal will unless europe offered something significant bearing in mind that rising tension in the gulf the issues with the drones and the tanker's who's got the upper hand at the moment well it does seem that iran is putting significant amount of pressure <hes> on the international community and specifically <hes> europe but if iran does precede with breaching the nuclear deal it will lose out upper-hand really because europe does have a threshold and what they're willing to tolerate with regards to iran's nuclear breaches and <hes> it could this whole situation could quickly escalate and iran could be referred to the u._n. Security council. It's not careful so this is a very calibrated dance. You mentioned earlier that you think that the the offer from france of if this line of credit is if i if not officially than than covert he got us out of a nominal wink approval from the united states because they don't want into big standoff with iran going into a reelection year but
Argentina's economy minister resigns as peso sheds value
"Welcome to the program. I'm joined today by john everard former u._k. Ambassador to uruguay and north korea among others and victor boomer thomas associate fellow at chatham house. We will begin in latin america where argentine president maurizio mockeries political and economic woes have deepened the embattled leader having just suffered a loss in eight national election primary hi. Mary has also lost his economy minister over the weekend. Argentina's economy is currently in recession and posted a twenty two percent inflation rate over the first six months of two thousand nineteen victor. I'll start with you. <hes> first of all our macrey states numbered probably but <hes> it may be just a little bit premature sure because it for when we get to october and we have the elections the opposition candidate alberto fernandez would either have to get more than forty five percent in the first round or more than forty percent and a ten point margin over his <hes> challenge. I mccray we assume you you can't assume that just because of the results <hes> a week ago so yes he's probably on the way out and frankly probably deserves to be on the way bad but people should not jump to quick conclusions. I want to look at some of the reaction from around south america in a moment but <hes> john <hes>. I wonder what the bigger concern is here for macrey in the country his defeat in the polls or the country country's worsening economic situation at this point well. Yes <hes> worsening a very polite word down. I think to fifty five to the dollar. I i remember when it was deployed a par with the dollar. That's a long time ago course teddy enormous concern. The <hes> electoral results sent shockwaves not just with the intel community of people will our junking argentine bonds as they can but it goes the washington society. I <hes> this causes huge stress for ordinary. Ardent won't what's going to happen to their lives and how they're going to get through yet another economic storm. If you are a mountain time of say a cough my age <hes> you've been through at least four these crisis before and every reports come out worse at the end of them so they'll be widespread fear we mentioned <hes> that's a mockery is in trouble in the polls and his political days could be numbered. I'm i'm wondering about his <hes> his opposition in this election should he be named <hes> albert fernandez. <hes> i wondering about <hes> how fernandez will fare in this if we expect him to win or is that a strong prospect at this point yes it is <hes> it's not so much <hes> that that argentines have fallen in love with <hes> alberto fernandez nor indeed necessarily with his vice presidential candidate the former president cristina in a kitchener different unders. It's more that macrey has been such a dreadful president <hes> he made aras right from the start and anyone who thought not was going to be <hes> a very <hes> experienced and talented individual in presidency was seriously <hes> at era because he had very little political experience he'd been married one sorry but as we know from london you can be married for city but that doesn't necessarily early make great <hes> head of government <hes> and of course he dud he he did what you should never do and that is <hes> go to ah the i._m._f. <hes> too late if you're going to go to the i._m._f. You should do it early on.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing
"We know that, you know, there's if people take that as a starting point, and then look, a bit wider, for example, look at some of the, the information that is being gleaned by who knows ation such as Belling cat, which has done a fantastic job in all sorts of various in explaining what's going on. The what he's playing on here is the fact that too many people now in the west and this is the Christmas is just the pace of life. If you like we see the headlines, we say, oh, that's the situation. I mean I'm an yesterday's headline. So we forget it and we go further, we really need organizations, such as betting cat and knows that go into these things in more detail Chatham house. There's all sorts of organizations that do this produce. Kathy Lee research papers on stories that were yesterday's or the day before yesterday's news, but still are relevant and he's playing to the audience. He's playing to the populist audience who don't look at these things, perhaps, whereas this really highlights. This is what this man saying. Look, what's behind it look wider because these are really the important issues. Now, I know that he ended the interview with a bit of a job at Britain that particular Dr conservative leadership debacle, and he's meeting with Theresa May. She's expecting to call him out over the scruple. Poisoning. But he'll have a number of bilateral meetings, and I wonder just how much weight Russia carries within the g twenty not much basically because I almost feel that the reason is g twenty is because Russia, although was a member of what was g eight now again, G seven was actually Russia was never one of the strongest economies in the world anyway, the highest ever got to about twelve and it's falling now. So it just about falls, into g twenty but he will again. He he'll play that for all he's worth. He's he's, there's an awful lot of smoke and mirrors, we've Putin and he will play out this idea that, you know, he's he's Trump today. He's, he's, he's meeting Theresa May, you know, he'll have another chat with g from China. They've met twenty eight times already since twenty twelve he's trying to play up this idea that Russia is a is a player again, at the in fact, the headline, which I have in front of the F T Putin herald, Russia's. Turn to the top table. Will he may think they have? But actually, they haven't he hasn't returned Russia to the top table. Russia is still considered by many as, as a pariah on the world stage, Ukraine, must never be forgotten Syria. Must never be forgotten shooting down of seventeen scrip alatha. You know there are so many things that that need to be remembered. So even if Putin is, is sounding often trying to portray himself as a great world leader. In fact, there are too many other things that show that he's not an Russia has not yet returned to the fold because Russia has too many sins in its in its recent past that haven't been answered for Stephen. Thank you very much indeed. That was Stephen deal. You're listening to the briefing. Let's get a look at some of the day's other top stories from one calls Reese James, thanks Georgina. The democratic party's presidential frontmen Joe Biden his face. Tough questions from his rivals in a heated television debate in Miami Kamala Harris, criticized by inviting his past work with bigoted senators. He said that Harrison mischaracterize. His role in champion civil rights demolition, experts in Italy of blown up the remains of them. Randy bridge in Genoa. It comes nearly a year after the structure collapsed killing forty three people. Thousands of residents Revette created from their homes ahead of the plant demolition of the remaining structure, and FRANZ.
Council Of Europe, Ukraine And Kiev discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist
"The council of Europe has backed Russia's return to the body, five years after Mosca had its voting rights suspended over the illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula. The accordion delegation has walked out in protest the council of Europe, which is not linked to the EU is Europe's oldest political body and aims to uphold human rights democracy and the rule of law across the continent will joining us from Kiev is the journalist Christopher Miller. And in the studio, we have Clinton peel associate fellow for the year at pergram at Chatham House Clinton. If you could just explain the background for us Russia. Lost its voting rights, but it was still part of the forty seven member organization. Yes, it was suspended in twenty fourteen further takeover of Crimea, suspended for two years, and then suspended itself, if you like they wouldn't come back and finally, they said they weren't going to pay any of their budget us. They actually a supposed to be about. Ten percent of the cost of the council of Europe said they would do to be suspended if they hadn't been readmitted, and that is what the votes on Tuesday, moaning Krakatoa on was all about was, whether they would be actually rehabilited it still not totally resolved. They've, there's a lot of objections to this decision. But the truth is the council of Europe is split, very badly, two to one voted for Russia, come back in, but the third that didn't, which is overwhelmingly former eastern European countries the very angry about this. Christopher what's the view from Kiev on the council of Europe? Frustration anger. The general public here really is up in arms. They've, they've called the council of Europe. I in response to this decision shameful if they've, they've called it a stock and says, and said that, you know, it's turned away from from respecting in working to uphold human rights. They've also responded on social media with memes suggesting that Russia was able to buy or bribe it's way back into the council. You know, a common refrain that I'm seeing on social media and hearing from from those who I met with an spoke to yesterday about this. It was, you know, why, why allow Russia back into the council when it was booted from the council. I four for annexing Crimea and an invading in eastern Ukraine, and it is not given back these these two pieces of Ukrainian land. Right, Ukrainians will also point to the fact that it continues to fuel the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and no recently just last year attacked Ukrainian navy ships captured twenty four servicemen which are still being held in Russia. Not to mention the nerve agent attack in the UK. You know, people in, in, in Kiev also like the point to the, the coup plot in Montenegro and Russian interference in US in you elections. And you know, they're, they're extremely angry. And we we saw somewhat measured Riyadh. Action from president Zielinski yesterday who said that he was disappointed in the move in that he had tried to convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Emmanuel Macron during his meetings with them last week in the French and German capital's. But ultimately was was not able to do so.
Trump approved cyber attacks against Iran, sources say
"East. It's well known that the president pulled back on the military response against Iran last Thursday. We now know that the US simultaneously launched a cyber strike against Iranian military computer systems. Emily Taylor is a cyber security expert, with the group Chatham house states have to, to, you know, they have various options, and they have to see a proportionate response to, to the attacks that the US have been married about, and so Cyprus part of that, too kit. Cyber attacks were designed to disable Iranian computer systems that control rocket, and missile
Japan wants you to say its leader's name correctly: Abe Shinzo
"At home. Japan's Prime Minister introduces himself as obey Sheen's, but in the west is, gene, so Ave. That's being the convention for at least a century. But Tokyo, now wants the west to follow Japan's way of doing things. Let's get more on this with Joe. Nielsen Reid who is a senior lecturer in modern Japan at Cambridge University, and an associate fellow at the London based think tank Chatham house Joan, get you tell us more, how exactly do the policymakers want to change name conventions, while this is an idea that has reportedly been floated by the foreign minister, taro Kono or Connell tarot, as in Japan corner vein is family name. And I think this is something of an experiment. There is a sense, in which some senior officials are exploring this idea, partly because of course the convention in Japan for years the standard practice fee like is being to use the family name. I and I think there's also a sense in which in the absence of the new era. Ray wa with the transition from one to another, perhaps Japan is starting to feel a bit more culturally self confident and wants to explore the option of making this change to reflect that growing confidence. And also, I think looking at the experience of career and China where the convention is, of course, again to use surname first. We talk about, for example. President moon Jae-in moon is the president's family name or Xi Jinping. Same idea. It's not unreasonable. I think the Japanese to want to explore this idea how long has flipping the name or. Into it. Is it a new idea? It's not something that's really been forefront, public discussion that has been some evidence that junior high school textbooks in English recently have started to adopt this convention departing from the western Newman other words, but it's not something that I think we've found has been the forefront of public debate in Japan and opinion polls seem to suggest that the Japanese public is pretty evenly divided about whether this is a good change or not. It's also I think driven by the reality that Japan will beginning a lot of international attention will, of course, be in June. Be hosting the G twenty summit in all soccer. We have the World Cup and the next year. Of course, we have the Olympics and looking ahead to twenty twenty the government, or at least some senior officials seem to be tested for this idea. But it's by no means clear up, whether this is something, the government is really pushing for or simply exploring this in a very tentative way laws are the best arguments for not changing the name order. I think it's just really a kind of practical question that this is being the way Japanese names of being. Used by western media in the past undoubtedly any change will involve a degree of. Potential. Confusion. And it's a reality, I think, for now that when, when westerners who aren't familiar with Japan grappling with Japanese name, sometimes they're not aware of the nuances, and aren't necessarily immediately aware of, which is the family name, which is the given name. I don't think this is as some people might suggest a turn towards more nationalistic Japan. But a Japan that what did you in the current context may be wants to feel that it's cultural identity gets a little bit of a boost? We saw that in the decision to pick Ray wa the first time that. Chinese characters have been explicitly taken from Japanese classical literature and used to signify new era. There's I think essentially which particular for conservatives in Japan. There's a growing confidence in the country and the desire to reflect that internationally. Exactly, you talk about radio indeed the Indians, this, this new imperial era. Can you tell us more about how that new air is at the moment being reflected in how the police feel about themselves on the country?
Pompeo Makes Unscheduled Trip to Iraq to Press U.S. Concerns About Iran
"Been a busy few days of the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo made an unscheduled visit to Iraq as tensions rise in the Middle East, then he popped over to London to reaffirm American warnings to the UK government about ties with China's telecoms giant Walli will warnings bahide. Let's speak not to Jacob park steady. Head of the US Ambi America's program at the think tank Chatham house Jacob will we'll get onto hallway in a second start with the Middle East, Mr. Pompeo turn of him Baghdad unexpectedly and a trip that was interpreted as an attempt to reassure the Iraqi government is these tensions rise over Iran. It's an attempt to reassure the Iraqi government, but in jersey away, it's all attempt to reaffirm America's preeminent place in the Iraqi sort of political system, which is going to be difficult because the US commitment to Iraq is at the end of very very long logistical chain where Iran shares a border with Iraq. Iran. Shares a religion with a substantial number of the Rockies. There are huge long standing cultural political ties, they're so Iran despite having a fraction of the overall economic military and political power of the United States on the global stage has much more directly leverage over rock than the United States dies at has in a much more long standing way US could eventually decide to reduce spread between the Middle East the wrong. They'll be there. So there's a fundamental. Disparity which goes against the broad power and Iran, and I think palm pales visiting the tempt to to try to shore up the US position in the face of that. I think his works out for him. Frankly, I think the the Iraqi government is obviously trying to balance between the two, but at the end of the day, they can read them out. And they understand that you know, that the people in their region are going to stand there region. In terms of influence, and and maintaining American influence and not just in Iraq different parts of the world. In order to go to Iraq, Mr. Pompeo, abruptly cancelled plans for meeting with Anglo Markle that didn't go down very well in Berlin. No, that's part and parcel with a broad deterioration in American German relations under the Trump administration. The president has clearly decided that uncle miracle is his foremost adversary in Europe that German cars or national security threat to the United States does arly that the the Germany is leveraging its position within the EU to wage economic war on on American manufacturing Americans in general, obviously, that's the some central misreading of situation if not outright abrogations, but the fact of the matter is that's bottled something's driving particular rain. And if the few a few Germans are thrown under it in the process, he doesn't really care. So I don't think palm pale has done any damage to his. His main constituency his boss, the president by angering the Germans, but the damage to American German pies in if there, and it's substantial on this is this is just part of this is it is it is Iran, which is seems to be dominating Fulton Washington. At the moment, we have the move to deploy Achraf carrier strike group to the Middle East. We have these concerns about security potential tax targeting American interests in the region. The US says we do not want war with Iran. But but it it doesn't give that impression by its
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Curator
"Senator Elizabeth Warren is's, the electoral college should be scrapped and the US institution should be amended to save God the votes of all citizens for more on this. Monocle? Daniel Bates was joined on the line by shake of barricades deputy head of the US America's broker at the think tank Chatham house Jay began by explaining what was being asked form warranted. Asking for is essentially a constitutional amendment to change the system at elect the president of the United States as was widely remarked upon following the two thousand sixteen presidential election. There's non direct election by the people, but rather an apportionment of votes to each of the fifty states in the US along with the district of Columbia, which are not entirely proportionate population. So you can end up with a situation as was the case both in two thousand sixteen and in two thousand or the election of George W Bush where more people vote for one candidate, but the other spreads their votes more strategically and ends up winning the presidency, despite receiving fewer total votes. So what Warren is calling for is the abolishment of this system by constitute? Referendum or constitutional amendment rather? Which would lead to direct popular vote on president as practiced in most most other presidential systems. So it's probably of note that she was speaking at a town hall in Mississippi where for example, most say politicians when campaigning for president won't even go is that right? That's exactly why. I mean, what you see in the US is that most states are considered out of week for one party or the other Mississippi is a deeply Republican deep red state in the American system of political coloration. So democratic candidates would almost never travel there. Likewise, Republican candidates don't bother spending any time in California, Massachusetts, as a result, the presidential elections tend to focus on ten or twelve battleground states, which again, we're all very familiar with Wisconsin in Michigan Vania in Florida as a result of their perception estates could go in either direction and that fundamentally disenfranchises the millions of Americans live in states, which are not to their political sort of leaning, the Republicans who live in California or the Democrats who've in Texas, for example, is this getting any response from the publicans at all today care about this will the Republican party is would be would be generally opposed of this. The stated opposition would come from the fact that the system was. Set up to prioritize a balance of power between state. So that the large states wouldn't simply overpower and monopolize resources relative to the small states. But there's also more cynical reason, which is say, the Republican electoral strategy has relied very much on left populated rural states, which are overrepresented in both the Senate on electoral college, and that has that's led to a situation where in order to continue the existing political strategy and political ability of Republican party. They have a strong incentive to maintain the status quo. That also makes the idea of a constitutional amendment fairly difficult to imagine because it would require the assent of two-thirds of states significantly more than you could get through with those that are just likely to be governed by Democrats in the near future. So imagine there won't be much support on that side..
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"We're not gonna help an funny way in the middle of caught the two countries that really do take locker migrants in a Sweden and Germany, and they're really caught in the middle between those want nothing to do with it. And those who are begging for help. I want one of the issues is that will say a feeling wasn't there years ago that were sort of set of common European values? And they were broadly, liberal broadly humanitarian, they included for example, the stepping up of those humanitarian crisis on the new expanded in twenty eight twenty seventy Member States include countries that simply don't share those views. I think that's fair to say I've been quite taken aback really about countries that in many other ways like little Estonia, which is, you know, a very openminded wonderful new member for the European Union dive. But on this issue. There's a real feeling it goes back, of course, to a different foam of history in Estonia. It's because we've got Russian immigrants, and that's why we've got a problem. Everybody has their own perception of the problem. And it is I think it's probably the big. 'guest single political issue that Europe has to deal with today. I'm what is going to do presumably at the European elections. As means that the next European parliament is going to contain a lot of EMMY peas who are hostile to ideas, like a common European policy on migration and asylum and indeed the concept of taking in launch numbers of asylum-seekers. Yes, I think so and win a Gila Merkel said in twenty fifteen unit we're not going to turn them away. We again to let them in initially, and that was basically a defensive European values. What you're talking about initially. There was a lot of support for her including in Germany. But as the reality happened, actually, tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of people coming in then people felt swamped they felt overwhelmed. They felt they couldn't manage it. And I think it's that feeling that there was such a wave of asylum-seekers coming in. Then that it it really overwhelmed. The capacity of Europe. Paean institutions to deal with it, crunchy. Thank you very much question pail from Chatham house here in London. You're listening to monocle twenty four. Now, I'd hate to disappoint you. But the idea that the twenty twenty presidential election was going to be a battle of the Big Apple billion as is. Now over Michael Bloomberg has confirmed that he does not intend to run for president against Donald Trump. The former mayor of New York says he thinks he could have won that contest. But he would have faced a foul toughest struggle to actually get the democratic nomination. It doesn't mean he's walking away from politics off from campaigning though. We'll to talk through all this. I'm joined in the studio by Pippa Mongan. His a former economic adviser to George W Bush when he was president, and is the co founder of h robotics Pippa, Bloomberg said that he was clear about the prospects of him winning the democratic nomination. Not now, it's not just about the size of the field. Is it that's about the Democratic Party? And whether they would have been open to the idea of being represented in two thousand twenty by billionaire and not only a billionaire, but a moderate. And the party the Democratic Party at the moment Pierce to be moving quite far to the left. And so what's interesting is that he's judging it's not coming back to the middle. And I think also look the jokes are going around as well that that a wealthy middle age white guy decided not to run for the presidency. It just wasn't the one that many expected. Right. There's a bit of a truth to what the party wants is not that kind of person again, they want somebody who represent Representative were inclusive a kind of diversity figure, and he's technology that this is the case in saying he didn't think he could probably get the moment nation. He also said that he did thing that he could win that. If you went up against Donald Trump that he could win. Do you think he was right? Well, he's right that he's won every race that he's entered. Right. So he's a he's a veteran at this. Look, even though Donald Trump is so disliked internationally. The fact is there is still a very strong support..
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"We focus now to some of the stories that are making headlines across Asia, my guest in the studio. Some Gayle is the executive editor John dialogue dot net. Also, it fellow at the think tank Chatham house. Thank you very much coming in on. What is an extremely cold and unpleasant London. We might be snowed. In by the time. We haven't over in twenty minutes time, let's start with the latest attempt to end, or at least eased the trade war between the US and China yet so US and Chinese officials are meeting again in Washington US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is leading the US delegation at the moment. It's not that clear. What's happening inside? We just hey, these kind of statements as the delegates have come out and initially Steve Mnuchin has been upbeat saying that they've they've got to got off to good start. And then since the South China Morning post story that I'm looking at came out. Trump is tweets at a bit. And surprisingly sort of kept on message saying, you know, they've got to good star talks going. Well, but he did add that nothing will be signed into he meets with with president Xi Jinping. So that now sets up a sort of leaders summit that will happen maybe on the sidelines of the Trump Kim summit that's expected some point in East Asia later in the year all of this is building up to a deadline of March first. So there's something like twenty eight days before tariffs go up to twenty five percent on Chinese on Chinese goods. So they need to sign some kind of deal by then the problem is like probably con in terms of actually really addressing the high stakes issues around technology transfer bilateral trade deficit subsidization of Chinese industries that that's the these really big issues that Khan really be dealt with in that timeframe. So it's more likely that. What will see it be kind of an interim smaller deal that will at least sort of eased pressure on on both sides. Some of the kind of comic hurt that trade wool will create the problem, perhaps is that the it may be an interim deal that doesn't really address some of those core issues, the lay of the heart of, but if Donald Trump's gonna turn up to the summit, you know, he's going to say the trade walls over I've won the trade War, I fix the trade war, which is gonna cozy multiple. Yeah. Seems quite likely certainly but sides will want to to to show that they've they've come to some kind of agreements, I'm kind of do, but the larger kind of issues, particularly when they tied up so closely do seem to do seem to be quite difficult to to resolve particularly when of course in the background of things like this. You have the hallway case moving along in less. You're going to come. With grand bog in the really deals with the wall way issue. And so which might be Trump style, it seems difficult to see this getting resolved by much. I now let's move on to we talk a lot about China's attempts to invest vast amounts of money and other economies massive infrastructure projects some movement now over suspended mega projects in MENA. Yep. The mid size. I'm probably of does protects his one of the most controversial. And and most political in terms of the way that the initial cancellation at the same time is in twenty eleven was probably the first signal of of change in me and mom because it it actually was a big part of the Al D I cheese party's platform that they would listen to in a widespread popular opposition to the midst dam project Chinese investigates Chinese Bill. Mega m-, it would dim the dumb the Irrawaddy river that runs in north to south through through me, a mall likely to displace a lot of people have significant environmental food security kinds of kind of impacts at least Gordon to its critics. And it was seemed like it was suspended. And then there's been this kind of back and forth over the years where every so often Chinese officials will come and visit and it will and and it will be discussed as if it was still on the table. It's not really clear in to what degree it was shelved. And then the the International Finance Corporation, which is the kind of commercial the.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"It is very serious this crisis doesn't get much traction at the moment because it's daily it's the daily distress of the people, and I think, you know, Chatham house. Which is a a federal that means. Be cynical slide by that. But a very important thing tank in the UK just on the road from here. Yemen, they think in terms of regional conflicts is the number one crisis in the world now as of January twenty twenty nine thousand eight so sorry, we started with Rheinmetall. Yes. It's a flag. It's a little red flag of a very very big problem behind it. So is that is this the idea that that a business wants to inject itself in in what the foreign policy may be? I mean Rheinmetall's also just bought a fifty percent stake in as combat vehicles division as well. So there are there are some ties here between Germany between Brexit, all kinds of translate. The the thing about the arms industry, which exists entirely. It's almost entirely subs. I it's it's this enclosed system in which we pay taxes a certain amount of our tax money goes to defense developing defense industries the defense industry. Than sell on surplus not for our defense. But they export defense stuff to wealthy countries like Saudi Arabia, and it it becomes it's not a free market kind of business. It is locked in to the government mechanics in each and every place. Now, I'm I'm just gonna guess your rob Robert is a defense correspondent generalist another general, Emma, generalist, your general. I am I come out. I command divisions. A command long division. I know how to do it. Let's say that Germany that Angela Merkel is has announced that she stepping aside. And I just think that the strong power politically in Germany is going to wobble a bit with. We know who her preferred successor is out of the Christian, Democrats, she she will face challenges from within the Christian Democratic party. Angela Merkel was very powerful. There might have been a time to it three years ago when Rheinmetall would never have dreamed of publicly saying we're going to sue you. 'cause you're screwing us out of X amount of money and the Americans will will take market share from us. So I think there's that dynamic as well. And whenever we talk about defence industries, just always remember that they are the true adjuncts of government. And you mentioned be a I mean, it comes out of so many different companies that have merged in merged in merged. British aerospace. And I I've been here for thirty five years. I can remember some of these mergers, you know, but it's always because the government needs to have as needed to have a a more streamlined industrial bureaucracy. So anyway, I mean, and then Robert brings up Yemen Yemen is we used to say two or three years ago Syria was like Spain in the nineteen thirties. But I do think that the much more at analogy is Yemen today where you are you have. The US Israel and Saudi Arabia now as a triumph it, and they really would like to provoke some kind of conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, the Iran is on the northern borders of Israel completely propping up Assad and in between and down in in Yemen..
2018 in Review: Election Highs and Lows
"Unsurprisingly all things considered the citizens of many countries decided that it was time to put someone else in charge in two thousand eighteen but did they make the right choices on nonstop net. Extra jet that award hundred. I should is a military scientist author and research associate at so SS South Asia institute, she considered the decision of her country Pakistan to elect former cricketer Imran Khan as prime minister. He has really brought about a new generation of supporters and voters who are very grateful. Very intolerant. To give you an example in Karachi, Imran Khan recently made a speech saying that, you know, people in job who support Nevada schrief donkeys. And then what is body follow? As did the got hold of a real donkey in Karachi and beat it up to death. So it's violence. I mean, they're very Gresley. If you watched them in social media the foul he's foul mouth. So it's almost kind of fascism that he's bringing a new fascist flavor. That is bringing to politics. That's what's different. I don't think that the taste will change is just that a new make belief world has been. Created through media through narrative management, and in this the military has a large and to play giving the view from Mexico where voters bucked international trends by electing a left wing populist is Andre Rosenthal. A former deputy foreign minister of Mexico ambassador to the UK and Sweden Representative to the UN and now international consultant on Latin American affairs. I think the first thing new president Mexico has to do is to tell the truth campaigns are one thing, but once you're in office, and once you know, what the situation is regarding the checks and balances that you have either on the legislative side, or in the media or civil society, you need to tell Mexicans the truth. If you continue to promise all sorts of impossible things like free education for everybody know exams to get into university selling off the presidential air airplane fleet traveling by car everywhere giving up the president's residence and and living in his house or renting. Little house near the offices things like that those are very populist promises, which resonate with a group of people. But they are things he will not be able to fulfil. And therefore, I think at the end of the day, his first speech his first act as president elect, even before he takes office needs to be to begin to tell the truth one of the main themes of elections this year, wherever they were taking place was an increasing disconnect between the public and the politicians. It was no different in Iraq, which was long overdue. He is NPR's. Jane Arraf, people are incredibly disillusioned with politicians and not just politicians. The interesting thing is they're disillusioned with tribal leaders. They're disillusioned with religious leaders. So there's a lot of skepticism we've seen that reflected in the turnout results in the Iraqi election, for instance, and really a lot of cynicism about whether this group of politicians will. Be any better than the next group. Even though they talk a good game. And also in Iraq Renauld monsoon academy fellow with the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham house. Well, it's been fifteen years and the Iraqis are asking fifteen years, what have these leaders done, the political tribal religious leaders? What have they done in terms of basic services in terms of employment and the answer they're coming up with is not much? And so the bigger gap in Iraqi society today isn't the gut between Kurds and Shia which is sort of defined post two thousand three Iraq. The biggest gap is the gap between the citizens and the elite between the rulers and the ruled many sort of people from bustling all the way up to slay. My NIA have very similar demands. So what you're seeing are the Shia protesting against their own leaders and Kurds protests against on Kurdish leaders. They're tired of identity politics. They know that any Iraq since two thousand and three Kurds Sunni and Shia leaders have all become wealthy at the expense of the majority of the population. Those are the citizens. But to go back to where we came in and to try to conclude review of two thousand eighteen on a note more positive than being mealy. Glad it's all over is it possible that the tunnel down, which we all traveling has a light at the end of it. And is it possible that that light has been illuminated accidentally by the most unlikely Pathfinder more presidential than any president that's ever held this office that I can Amy pope is associate fellow at the US and the Americas program at Chatham house and former deputy homeland security advisor to Barrack Obama. So she's not quick to jump to President Trump's defense. But is the even a glimmer of good news from his presidency? So far, I think it is the role of women in society. It is the election of so many women to congress, and it's the conversation that has been going on since his election about the metoo movement about the exploitation of young women beh-. Savior is that had pretty much been accepted for decades as long as women have been in the workforce are now front and center. And that's frankly in large part due to him the access Hollywood tape and comments about how he was treating women galvanized a conversation galvanized commitment from women to engage in public life. Women. I know who had no interest in politics are now organizing fundraisers getting out getting out the vote writing speaking. That's a great thing. And that is not that we've been trying to crack for many many years. And so I suppose hats off to Donald Trump for bringing the women to the table before to UCLA, Geoffrey Howard, Jeff any optimism for us. I think the way in which Trump may be an advertently making America greater again is by getting Americans to think seriously about the role of moral values in politics. And I think there's a long standing. Tenancy to think that when you go to the voting booth you're just going to vote for your own pocketbook devote for your own self interest. And I think that assumption is is under pressure and people are once again as in all the great moments of American history in the great moments in the history of any democracy taking seriously, the idea that the purpose of politics is to provide for certain basic rights and opportunities for all. And when our institutions are subverted in when they are not being dedicated to that proper purpose, it's important to hold political leaders accountable. So if the president is able to inadvertently reawakened in people a sense of moral commitment in passion in public life. That would be a terrific inadvertent achievement.
Japan's new defense guidelines highlight military ambitions
"Japan currently has an exclusively defense oriented, military, policy, and pacifist constitution. But now in the face of increased Chinese capability and aggression new guidelines of an issue, which may fundamentally change this. John Nelson right is a senior lecturer in East Asia at Cambridge University and an associate fellow at the Chatham house Asia program, John thanks for joining us this morning. The national defense program guidelines is a policy document that outlines the nation's defense objectives for the next decade. As such must address the new reality in the security landscape. And this was signed off today aircraft carriers seemed to be the most contentious part of this. Can you tell us what that contains? Yes. This is a commitment on the power to the Japanese government to reequip its existing destroys the clouds destroy to allow them to carry vertical takeoff aircraft in the past. They've used helicopters. And this is raise concerns and some quarters of this is effectively the beginning, Japan acquiring aircraft carriers the equivalent the government has been keen to challenge that association and the language that's being used describing these as so-called multi-purpose operation destroys reflects, I think sensitivity in Japan, and in the wider region about this enhancement of Japan's capabilities, but enhancement undoubtedly is these ships will not only have the capacity to be equipped with f thirty five fifth generation fighter planes purchased from the United States. But also, I understand. There will be some possibility that American planes might be deployed on these ships at some point. So there's no doubt that Japan is increasing its whose production capabilities, and it's increasing its digital work in a more flexible fashion with the United States to deal with the growing challenge particularly of China in the region. US driven. I mean aside from Trump's buy America policy Japan has a security treaty with the US which involves Japan providing defense in the US maintain strike capabilities. But I mean, neither in the present. At the present time have the firepower necessary to counter China the distance. This is why these these multipurpose vessels a needed. Is that correct? That's right. I mean, I think this is dealing with the basics reality. China's increasing defense capabilities in the East China Sea where of course, Japan and China have a territorial dispute over the so-called son, Cinco de L U islands. But also more broadly in the South China Sea. Where course, we know the China has been acquiring aggressive force protection capabilities. And of course, building its own out Fisher reefs as a means of asserting its maritime, dominance, Japan is worried about this. They point to China itself of courses, acquiring a aircraft. Carrier all of this. In addition with other elements in the national defense program guidelines designed to increase power capabilities not just aircraft carriers, but the acquisition acquisition of long range hypersonic missiles, all of this. I think is an attempt to deal with that basic news to TJ reality. Whether we should be concerned about it. I think is another question. Japan's defense constitution remains in place. Although prime minister, of course, is looking to revise it. And the attitude on the part of public opinion and critically, of course, other parties in Japan opposition parties and the government's own coalition partner. Komeito remain still very cautious validating the challenges that basic normative commitment to defensive security policy. Is the US in driving this? Well, the US is under Donald Trump. Of course, it has multiple objectives. You mentioned, of course, the economic relationship. That's hugely important. Mister obey is under real pressure from Donald Trump to sign a bilateral trade agreement. He's reluctant to do that. He's concerned that this will open up pressure on Japan to open up Integra, cultural sector, and as part of that we've seen in this new defense policy from Japan a commitment to buy American one hundred thirty five fighter planes at one hundred million dollars a piece that's a huge commitment in terms of financial outlays on the part of the Japanese government. The hope in Tokyo, this will offset some of that pressure from Donald Trump, whether willow not of course is another question.
"chatham house" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM
"Let me introduce my guests, Dr usually from Chatham house, international affairs, think tank is here in the UK. Hello. Hello. Charlie. Pardon is a former British diplomat who was based in China during the early nineteen eighties and is now with security think tank. The Royal United Services institute here in Britain. Hello morning in Shanghai. Andy, she an independent economist who advises businesses in China, and who was formerly with Morgan Stanley in Asia hyandi high and in Beijing, Michael Pettis who's lived in Beijing for many years is a professor of finance at Guam choir school of management at Peking university in Beijing. Hi, michael. Let me start with with your memories, all of you. Because you know, whatever your age the pace of change in China has been so rapid unusually. I want to start with you because you actually come from Deng Xiaoping's hometown. How was it? Utterly different before these reforms started, well, perhaps a mall auto panelist. I was the only one those who won't after naughty seventy nine since from ninety eighty five the I just remember in my living memory the time start when my parents need sent me to the garden. I will have to sit back of the bike together was my mom too. Good Mike gardens spending an hour journey on the bike. So no, no car. No ward. And there's no public transportation at all. But look at nowadays the children who go to kit garden and their manager and sitting on the Bentley listen, Tara reform process is like a transformation from bicycle. To Bentley on the other hand. And this is transformation has been performed from bikes to Bentley's that is that really encapsulates. It doesn't it Charlie? You've you've been living in China for a long time for you. What are the biggest changes? I was I three years before you Jay was born. I mean, there's so many members the changes in China has gone from a low rise to high rise to vertical society. I used to sit on the top of the diplomatic compound in the Chinese New Year and watch the fireworks going on. And you could see right across to the western hills. And now, you can't see tool sometimes because I'm afraid the pollution, but I guess transport is the thing that really strikes you the bicycle jams are giving way to traffic jams. You Jazayeri lead fan. The train system extraordinarily rapid. That's that's grown rapidly travels. And then the way the people have changed their lives. Now carried out on electro mix, for instance, in a way that I mean, if you had a television back in eighty two you were very fortunate, but one thing hasn't changed. And that's the politics are under gang back after a long absence. The people's daily looking at it and thinking which decayed in new change there. And that might be problem. Well, we will talk about that. But let's stick with the memories for now. I'm gonna come to you next Andy in Shanghai while Shanghai. You know, when you think of the world's absolutely amazing modern cities, that's one that springs to mind. How's it changed for people in Shanghai? I think the experience was was a little bit different show. Hi, headed glory days in one thousand thirty and it was the third largest city in the world in the second largest financial market is so going up in Shanghai was if it was a very unusual experience it caused it was always a very developing very modern city to begin with. So I think that in the eighties the psychological change. It was important people in Shanghai. We're very much for opening up for market reforms for political reforms. Sure, I think her represents the eastern seaboard of China is still most over China's econ. Seventy percent of the exports most of the fiscal surplus for the central government, so China the main kind of a studio economies being fury economy. That is still depends on essential calendar for subsidies the coastal export or an economy, much, more like Japan or South Korea. Let me come to you Michael in Beijing. And I want to throw in these figures because this again is such a stark reminder of how far China's come when Xiaoping launch China's reforms in nineteen seventy nine China's GDP was one fifth of Japan's it was a half of the UK's in less than a tenth of the US's. And now it's the second biggest economy in the world. So huge change. What what are your own memories? Well, I think whenever you speak about China. You have to always remember that you're not speaking about China. You're speaking about your own particular of small corner, China, and I've always been in Beijing, I've been in Beijing for the last eighteen years, but what's really impressed me has been the cultural transformation. There's been such a huge social transformation, and it's reflected itself in the Sook cultural explosion. But unfortunately, since it doesn't really fit into any of the stereotypes, we have or even older Chinese as well as foreigners of what Chinese culture is supposed to look like it's often overlooked, but I've been particularly involved in sort of the experimental and underground music scene in fifteen years ago. There was really nothing in Beijing. It was a bit of a joke culturally. And then everyone got onto the internet around two thousand to two thousand three. That was sort of overwhelmed with one hundred years of music that known it ever heard before. And I guess that's such a fresh exciting way to listen to music without any of the historical baggage. That it seemed to set off this explosion to the point where I would say in that little corner of music and experimental avant garde underground music. Beijing now is one of the most exciting cities in the world, which is really hard to imagine fifteen years ago. I mean, you were founder and Kohner of punk rock nightclub. What was that? Like, everyone loves to call it punk. We had some punk bands. But it was much more of an experimental in Indy place, and we were very lucky because they say it's better to be lucky than to be smart. And we were because we open just after everyone sort of got onto the internet and our approach was really to promote the local musicians and China at the time had such an enormous cultural inferiority complex. And by really promoting the local musicians and supporting them we found ourselves in the middle of this explosion and within three or four years. It was just so apparent to me that we were going through something historically important. It was extremely exciting. Dr. Usually, let me come back to you. Because you talked about the physical changes in thanks shopping's hometown. But what about the cultural changes? Carterton is also tremendous in here as well. On the one hand, the old structure of that sense of society based on close community that sense of social cohesion seems to be break up by the sense of relentlessly chase for money in a get rich. I get rich is being very glorious. And is exactly what shopping have said, Jennifer wall. So is not a society no longer really pursued study of carmont, but instead a society worship to conspicuous consumption of car logo field. So those memories really encapsulate. All the various different bits of changing the so much more that we could talk about. But let's fast forward to today. And let's talk about China's economy and both the reforms in some of the reforms that perhaps aren't going as far as as one would have expected the pressure from Washington and from President Trump, and many others has been that he wants. China to open up further and a lot of this is about China's state owned enterprises. There are something like one hundred and fifty thousand state owned enterprises, Charlie pardon. Let me come to you. I mean what what does that look like what role? Do they play in Chinese society tradition? They paid an enormous society, and they control everything from from persons and working through to their personal life, and that's largely fallen away. But they're still extremely important in terms of the amount of resources that they consume and Xi Jinping is determined to strengthen certain one. So the part of the reform is actually to strengthen central SOS and some of the local ones as well. Some of the other measures that he's intending with essays a not so clear. So some of them are owned by the national government by the communist party run government. And then some are owned by local governments and this year and doctor you, gee, I wonder if you could give those of us who haven't seen one, you know, what what do they look like? And if I could come to you, I I think that China today the is really started at twenty years go askew. Remember in nineteen ninety seven the first store enterprise came to the stock market for appeal. Was it China Mobile? The visual was that the the the steam random price would be limited to his so called a strategic industries like a telecom energy and thanking the performance has not been great. Because there you look at it the cash flow as being negative for twenty years a collectively. So. No subsidies, very few companies like a challenge. Cash positive. At least your prize has being is dragging the economy down somewhat. But what what did they provide to workers is it just kind of guaranteed job for life? Putting this way stay on under prize in China is a social unit the social fabric which tied to society together. And this is something has not changed. Even after the no matter how many round of reforms we're talking about in here. Is not just employer is pretty much. What I call it a rice ball the, plus if you have a job for life, but most likely if the employee of SAP performed there. Well, the good chance is your seventh generation of children will also be offered a job within the same company. Stay on enterprise in China also have plenty of social welfare provision functions. So within the state owned enterprise would expecting to have a good hospital. Good primary and middle school and also keep garden at the same time. So this would have been in a bull the employees ease devote their time at work. I wanna bring Michael Pedersen because the point about the state owned enterprises is number one went and China is part of a global system. A lot of other countries are gonna point to that and say that's unfair. This is subsidized industry and Michael number two under Xi Jinping. Rather than further breaking up these giant state-owned conglomerates. He he's been consolidating some of them you have to think about the Chinese economy systemically and not really focus on the pieces of the economy and the SOAP's along with local government entities are their primary role is to generate economic activity rather GDP growth rather than than than economic growth, and that's been their role for quite a while. I would say in the eighties and most of the nineteen ninety s when China was significantly underinvested in terms of both infrastructure and industrial capacity. There was a lot of low hanging fruit. A lot of things that the police were able to do productively. But I would argue that in the last ten to fifteen years that's changed pretty dramatically and the role of the has the role of other government entities is to continue generating high levels of economic activity, even though much of this economic activity is not. Productive at all. Which is why we've seen such a significant rise in the Chinese debt burden. So wh what is your view on the state owned enterprises? I mean, should they be for the broken up or do they provide a kind of backbone if you like to to China's economy and to the workforce? Well, I'm gonna gnostic there. I don't think there's evidence that stayed on enterprises are better than the private sector or necessarily worse than the private sector. They can play a role what really matters is the way incentives structured, and whether they're playing a role in economic growth things like that. And right now, I think the state on this are not doing a very positive job for the Chinese economy. Let's talk about that political control EG, you were mentioning this. But basically every state owned enterprise has a party organization, and it's headed by a party secretary..
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"The daily it's time now to take a look at the newspapers we're joined today by Dr a research fellow at the Asia Pacific program at Chatham house. First of all to the South China Morning post. This is quite a funny story. I think unless you earn a great deal of shares indulging Gabbana in which case, it's not remotely amusing. But this is this is not a great moment in public relations. Pastathon a Gabbana is it well is firstly is not the great PR moment for the brand. But Secondly touched really this off spot of dozens of Chinese national pride. Yes. He called China a a series of of disa- bludgeoning things. But as a as a consequence it's now become suddenly, very difficult to buy any don't you in Gabon in China? Well, I mean, that's that's really feel you home much politics and economics got really got into twined. I mean, don't you? Go is not the first run has really. Stumbling on the wrong on the wrong side of the trench. They won't be the last one. So there will be a story ongoing. But I remember Lori Kristen deal owed did the similar thing. And then governor obviously did not really less in the past. And then that's the result. How long Chinese memories for something? Like, this is this something that belonged blow over in a matter of days or weeks. Indulging Gabon will be able to go back into business in China. Because as the story points out they've been dropped by a great many Chinese retailers is that something that can be undone quickly. I doubt it very much since of very strong public anger about the comments made by the designer himself. So as Israeli from the beginning of the brand and is something wrong. And therefore the time has consumer decided, right? Okay. This perhaps the moment we want to show a national pride, and we're still level country. And therefore, no that Rigoberta. Okay. Well, staying with. The South China Morning post. This is a story of well slightly Besser executed exercise in PR outreach. And this is the the USS Ronald Reagan, the American aircraft carrier arriving in Hong Kong and welcoming aboard Chinese officials and personnel from the People's Liberation Army. How friendly do we think this meeting actually was? In the current very tense moment between Beijing and Washington. I think this is a very positive news coming out ahead of the meeting between shipping Donald Trump later next week. So this is a very positive news. But on the other hand, really how much does positive news could really translate into some kind of substantial negotiation packed come to Detroit war, and we're still much and the operation because there are all sorts of areas in which you would hope that China and the United States can have a reasonable conversation. And obviously the projection of naval power is one of them. We saw the story emerge. I think the last couple of weeks of that incident in the South China Sea, the near miss between American destroy the USS deca Chinese destroy the Lonzo is that something that we can imagine or at least hope that China and the United States will have a grownup conversation about at some point. Because obviously there's this thing where America wants to maintain what it? Ause it's freedom of navigation while China's seeks to assert itself in the region. So is freedom of navigation in one thing. And Secondly, he knows this one two men ten is as I influence in Asia Pacific. So obviously just to show how much influence they still carry something quite important. An also just put in the wider context of worsening US strana relations, and I don't really think there's much those military access ex-con do because I think the bigger climate of worsening US China relations depended on the nature of those kind of metric sizes. Okay. Moving along to the Straits Times. And this the cool suggests that we now have some idea who is likely to be the next prime minister of Singapore. That's right. I mean, we have this fun as minister hung Sookie. Fifty seven years old got picked by this People's Action Party, which is below the Lee family then to succeed Leon as the next. Administer. So that seems to be a safe pair of hand because he's been quite lonely bait and who will be this access..
What will House Democrats fight the Trump administration on first?
"Guest today are Jacob para killers deputy head of the US and America's program Chatham house, and Michael Goldfarb, the journalists and broadcast welcome both. And as promised an extended look tonight at the first US midterm elections that anybody bother candidates unusually punk tilles citizens and friendless cranks has ever cared about. Not for the first or last time president Donald Trump's in addressing effect on politics has not had quite the outcome. He might have desired. The Trump has failed the vote as a big victory. This is a little like hailing Eric Trump as a future Nobel prize winning physicist. I e an active heroin optimism, though, Trump's Republicans consolidated their grip on the Senate. They did lose the house of representatives that press conference from which we played a clip at the top of the show is ongoing as far as it's possible to tell Trump has not yet started hurling the actual furniture at the assembled journalists. It does seem to be only a matter of time. Jacob does Donald Trump actually have any reason to celebrate. I think the the Senate is I mean, he has reason celebrate it's not unpredictable reason celebrate the Democrats did pretty well in the Senate relative to the number of races that were actually up for election. Relative to where those elections were being held many of them being in states that went for Trump just two years ago that said the looks like depending on the outcome in Montana. Arizona it looks as though Mitch McConnell will be commanding at least fifty two and possibly fifty three or at a stretch fifty four votes, which means that he will have an even freer hand to pass through nominees from Trump, whether those are future cabinet officials federal judicial appointments even potential next supreme court Justice. So that is a reason celebrate and if he's thinking in longer term since the twenty twenty and twenty twenty two cycles quite as rosy for the Republicans. It gives them a little bit more leeway. It means that the Democrats have to work that much. Harder to take back the Senate and potentially face a second term, President Trump with a unified Democratic Congress. But the house is a disaster for him. There's no sugar coating that on which subject Michael that is the one thing we do definitely know for sure is that the Republican party no longer control the house of representatives. How constrained does? I mean, obviously constrains any president. But this particular president how constrained is he likely to be by Democratic Congress. Well, it depends first of all let me put a caveat in on any outsor- here. It depends on if if the Democrats can get themselves together and had some big if. And and behave in a you know, like they have a backbone, and it's not clear, you know, what? I mean, Nancy Pelosi is the speaker of the house in coming in in theory. But she may face the challenge, she's seventy eight she knows more about where everybody's skeletons are hanging, and that's very useful. But you know, there has to be a changing of the guard. Sometimes having said that let me answer your question. Andrew the house, oh has become the battleground going back twenty five years to nineteen ninety four when Newt Gingrich and led the Republican charge on the contract with America congress. Most people listening to this probably still in grade school when that happened, but it has more than set the tone for the following quarter-century. They have accumulated power in the house to do two things in a really important one is subpoena. Power. And I can I can envision a sequence where Robert Mueller who who's been. You're not related. We are not no he has been decorous point during this election because he's a decorous kinda guy. He's a Republican of the old school Mueller will eventually produce his report the Democrats control the house now, they control all the committees. If there's a question about banking. You will see subpoenas about banking? If there's a question about Trump's relationship with the Russians you will see the foreign relations committee subpoena hang him about that. They will tie her up in more paper than Donald Trump's lawyers used to tie up people trying to get paid by Donald Trump back in the days when he was just a real estate developer.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"This is the monocle daily live from studio on Madari house in London on Sunday. The voters of Bavaria will go to the polls in a state election in Berlin. Chancellor, Angela Merkel will not have put any champagne on ice if polls are to be believed. The Varian cousins of Merkel's Christian Democratic Union vets, the Christian Social Union unlikely to lose them majority in Bob areas Lund tag the regional assembly, which the issue has dominated for much of the post war period. This does not seem likely to improve the already fractious relationship between Merckel and see us. You leader and Germany's interior minister host Seehofer joined with more on this Quentin peel associate fellow of the Europe program at Chatham house Quinton is it is possible to to get a an idea of how big a spanking the CS you are anticipating on Sunday. Yeah, I think feeling pretty miserable. Actually. By all accounts, they get a drop to something like thirty three thirty, four percents. In the poll from forty, seven percent last time, the last thirteen elections in Bavaria they've always had an overall majority and now they into almost certainly have to govern in coalition. It's a real slap in the face, and it's a fascinating situation where an awful lot of the poll seems to have just fragmented towards the other parties. So which parties are they losing their vote to? Well, it's very interesting. I mean the truth is that the the other party that's doing best the greens and they're up to eighteen nineteen percent, which is a remarkable figure for a party that's usually down under around ten percent. But are they picking up votes from the CS you probably more likely from the social Democrats who are way down at ten percent so won't the c you is losing is a bit certainly to the far right. The alternative for Germany and a bit to the independent fi availa the free voters who are a sort of. They are exc- SU who fed up really with the the party in power just looking very stale and as if they needed kicking. I mean, how. How what? What I think was the word I was looking for what is the relationship between the state politics of Bavaria and the national politics of Germany? VO eastbound various scene is a state where you know where it goes Bavaria there goes the nation or is it regarded as something of a Laura onto itself, a sort of self contained political auditee in the way that some parts of the United States are. Yeah, it is move the latter. I think there is always been seen as a as a very much sui generous. It's got its own world. It's done fantastically well economically. I mean, this purveyor in the old days, I mean, going back a century for various a backwater. Now it's a real prosperous. Part of Germany done fantastically well in aerospace in the in in high tech companies in the motor industry. And so here is a state that he's actually very prosperous, but he's actually looking pretty rebellious and that. That extend it is looking rather similar to the national the picture because you'll see in the national opinion polls UIL. So an extraordinary fragmentation really of the traditional German body politic where both the traditional big parties, the Christian Democrats on one side on the right and the social Democrats on the other, a really seeing their votes, come crashing down and the greens. The a. f. d. in particular are the ones that have picking up twenty extent though, is this vote going to be a referendum on Angola Merckel? It isn't really. I think it's much more a referendum on the Christian Social Union. And to that extent, there might be a hint of Hsien Freud from Angela Merkel sitting in Berlin. Hosts, I hope for the leader of the CSU has been the single most difficult member of, oh, coalition really on getting on they, they haven't got on really since the row over over refugees in twenty fifteen..
"chatham house" Discussed on WMAL 630AM
"Our colleague Cleo Paskal the visiting Trudeau fellow at the university of Montreal and associate fellow Chatham house. We're headed to the subcontinent at a photograph showing Putin the recognizable three times elected president of room, the Russian federation holding hands with the Rendra Mody, the very powerful and assertive prime minister Vindja. There's also mentioned in a paragraph CNBC writing of S four hundred last time I checked that's a very powerful weapon. Cleo, India and Russia together again, not since the Soviet days. You understand how this goes? What is the what is the intention of Mr. Modi showing friendliness towards the aggressor in in Ukraine, Syria. Good evening to you. Good evening. Hi. Well, the question is who would the system be used against? And really there's only one country is likely to be used against them. Match China, which is why I think it's perhaps not is concerning for Washington and last month, both sectors state Pompeo, and hence secretary Mattis were in Delhi signing a much more important agreement which is a Comcast which is communications agreement with Delhi which will dramatically increase interoperability between the Indians and the American, and I'm sure that this sale was discussed during those meanings. And if the US had had very serious concerns, they would have been addressed at that time. So there there's the little possibility for sanctions, but given the politics I would hope that there wouldn't be any to put a little context and this the United States sanctions China for buying that same as four hundred. Anti aircraft system from the from the Russians, and and clearly I don't I I can't see the US sanctioning India. And that must be as you point out a sign of enduring partnership between Delhi in Washington as these two countries start to work much more closely. But you know, Mody seems to be playing a very interesting game of outreach not only to Putin not only to the United States, but also to China what's going on there. Cleo. The China focus, it always or, you know, been overtly economic Indian needs investment, it was hoping to get quite a bit of investment from Japan and has gotten some investment from Japan, but Mody in order to be reelected. And you know, there are elections coming up in the spring of twenty nineteen really needs to deliver on things like jobs, if that sounds familiar, so he needs investment and the goal with the Chinese engagement was to try to get the financial engagement without the political or security compromise that sometimes it goes with dealing with China, and Cleo has Mody gotten the investment. He is expected from the United States. It hasn't been as as easy as it could have been. But I think there have been problems on both sides. There are a lot of vested interest in Delhi that have been slowing things down as well. A lot of people made a lot of money from a lot of different sorts of relationships. So when weapons sales are involved, you're looking at relationships are maybe going back decades, including back to the Cold War times and people in systems who have vested interest in other alliances or other purchases, so clearing away all of that brush in order to get things that are good for the strategic core of a nation can sometimes take a bit more time than expected the puzzle about Vladimir Putin does he have a neutral image in Delhi is he regarded as somebody we can work with is there, a general opinion, there's been a very long during the so-called non-aligned period. India's nonaligned period, they did get a lot of weaponry from the Soviet Union. And then from the Russians at a time when the US really wouldn't touch India at all. So there is you know, I it's not considered a problem. And I think there was during during the time when the west was backing some pretty nasty elements in Afghanistan, the Indian knew that this Jihadist problem would flow back into India and were not averse to working with the Soviets during that time either to try to contain it. So a lot of their relationship with Russia is very much a reflection of their media border problems with jihadists on one side and the problem with China on the other, and that's the lens through which they view their relationship with Moscow, and Cleo what is the state of play between Islamabad and Delhi today that terrible. And in fact, what China did immediately after. India bought the the missile defense system was announced. It was going to sell some very high tech drums to Pakistan. So centrally opening up a second front for that missile system to try to defend from the puzzle. Also about India playing the Russia card if that's what they're playing. This can be a dangerous game. The Russians are not easy to work with is that forgotten the Soviet days. Does that regarded as that was that was then this is now is that the fresh thinking right really because there because if you look at the age of the people in both administrations, they they're people who would have been engaging with each other perhaps juniors during the Soviet period. So they know each other, you know, there there was all sorts of stories about Soviet infiltration into the Indian system during the during that period as well. A lot of compromise material all that sort of stuff. That's a polite way of putting it. So, you know, I think it takes a long time to to read that up. But also, you know, they the Soviets were there for India at a time when sometimes others weren't. But there is the more serious problem is that a lot of the stuff that Russia sold to India has not been great. The quality hasn't been particularly good on the price tends to keep going up and up and up with very slow delivery. So the actual quality of what's been sold in the past has been a real problem. Yes, I wonder if they're going to send all those old broken Sukhoi's and may expect to Moscow for their money back. I'm not sure they'd make the flight thereby Gordon the subcontinent, it becomes much more the great game here with Russia entering into it. Oh, you know, whoever wins India as a partner is certainly got the leverage because India is enormous within about four years, maybe even fewer than that, it will be the world's most populous society. And that means it has incredible power over not only the region, but also elsewhere watching Winston Churchill like a rotisserie going round and round in his grave Cleo Cleo Paskal of the Chatham.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: Midori House
"Thomas associate fellow with the US and America's program at Chatham. House welcome both. And we will start in Brazil where campaigning in the country's presidential election has gone up a gear as the field has been reduced to ahead of the runoff on October twenty. Eighth as now appears to be more or less inevitable. The discourse has been substantially flooded with unverified or outright fraudulent stories to seminated by social media. Brazil's electoral court has managed to bail out a thimble full of this deluge ordering Facebook to remove links to thirty three bogus stories. Targeting the running mate of Workers Party candidate Manuel Davila's, mammal, Davila being, of course, the running mate, not the actual candidate, but I think we all know what I meant there. Rubber bullet, make any difference. Thirty three nonsense stories deleted from the vast sprawling empire of nonsense that is available on Facebook. Another platforms will make any difference at all because if damage has been done that, it's already been done. I mean, people have already cost votes in the first round of the election. The store is fake or otherwise are out there. They've gone around. People have the believe them or not believe them as as they desired. What's what's so depressing about this is that it's not a unique case. I mean, we now virtually see every election which allegedly is interfered with by phony accounts on social media sites. And I think the organizations which host these sites principally, let's name names Facebook and Twitter and Instagram need to take their responsibilities very much more seriously. They need to stop monitoring political content. They need to check who's putting political, put a ducal. Content online and they need to check their their benefit, his victim more. I think about this, the Honda loin on it. I get to the point where I can't see the argument as to why Facebook, Twitter, other social media platform should not be held to the same standards and subject to the same punishments as any other publisher. Is that feasible and should it be pursued? Should Facebook be as accountable for something that appears under its masthead as any actual newspapers. Probably yes. And certainly they can do a lot more so I don't think we should let you know the good be the enemy, the best, or maybe I've got no real role where the fact is that there's a huge amount of progress that that the needs to be made in this area. Fortunately, it wouldn't didn't matter that much in the first round of the Brazilian election because essentially you're whittling down a field of thirteen candidates to two and it wasn't that close that it would have affected the result. But the second round is quite different in three weeks time, very, might be very close. And in which case, let's hope that in the intervening three weeks, the will forages find a way not eliminating this frontal because you can't do that in three weeks, but a certain reducing their aunt jurisdictions role been to coast to me that in the lead up to actual polling day, do impose. Certain restrictions, they banned political advertising ban or restrict the publication of opinion polls. Are we getting somewhere nearer a point at which they might be an argument for doing something as to Coney as just shutting off social media sites? I just didn't think it can be done in social media sites, sort of almost organic in the way which they'll bridge. It is extraordinarily difficult unless you're the Chinese communist party to actually ban access to these sites. And even in China have knows most young Chinese certainly have found ways of getting round the the, the great firewall of China. So I don't think that can be done. I think what really needs to be done is the the social media organizations need to be persuaded that they are publishes the moving platforms and they have publishes responsibilities. They need to be made at least in political content to take responsibility for what they put online and who, and checking who. Is putting it online because I guess then victims we look at this ruling by Brazil's electoral court..
A guide to Zimbabwe's 1st post-Robert Mugabe election
"Field Can't speak Just incredible I believe in a, good beat the guys Two on the biggest stage. Of all Three weeks Elsewhere Qatar has denied allegations in a British newspaper that it broke campaign rules by running a secret black operations campaign to sabotage rival bidders for the twenty twenty two. World Cup the Sunday Times says it has documents that show how Qatar used an American off and ex CIA agents to generate fake propaganda about. Its rivals the Nigerian football federation is investigation investigating an allegation of bribery against coach. Sallisaw Yousef the national team coach was caught, on camera taking cash for men posing as football agents who requested to be selected for a continental championship Yousef said the money was. A gift the players were selected on merit and he doesn't believe he's broken rules on accepting. Cash payments Riyadh Morris has limped out of Manchester City's pre season friendly against by Munich. And Miami the sixty million pound signing from LeicesteR was substituted with a, leg injury In the first half of a young city teams three two. Win over a strong by Munich side elsewhere Shaquille scored brilliant overhead kick on his. Liverpool debut in a four one friendly win, over Manchester United United manager Josie Marino defended the result by saying the lineup hey selected was not even thirty percent of his squad. On the line of August many of them are not going to be here so this is. Not this is not our squad reinforcements you are you are saying plays that old like. To buy I would like to add to the squad that's another thing But this is. Not my squad, this is not even off of, my squad this is not even thirty percent. Of my squad And, Lewis Hamilton was grateful for the wet conditions as an unexpected pole position. For today's Hungarian, Formula one. Grand prix his Mercedes teammate voluntary tasks, will start alongside him on the front, row of the grid Hamilton's nearest. Title rival Ferraris Sebastian rattle will start in. Fourth place but still believes that he can wait Tomorrow Zimbabwe. Is holding. Its first election since Robert Mugabe was ousted in, November. International election, monitors have been allowed in for the first time since two thousand and two knock stratego is from Zimbabwe, in the fellow, of the Africa program at Chatham house he's recently been in Zimbabwe and. He joins me now in. The, studio so nuts how important are, these first elections in post Mugabe's Zimbabwe Well I thank you very much for hosting. Me I'm this elections are really really critical a lot of people are feel? That is maybe the most important elections we've had, either since nineteen Eighty-one since two thousand for the first, time neither Mugabe or the late Morgan Tsvangirai contesting. So we're really going into. New territory here in terms of election, and this huge election fever in Zimbabwe yeah you were there just a few weeks. Ago. Can you, describe the scene there that you. Saw people? Are just so excited both in? The cities and in the rural areas? And both, both candidates have got a a big following but really in terms. Of what's happening in Zimbabwe now it's all about elections and with regard. To the actual elections a lot of it is really about the economy that's that's the number one issue exactly I mean excitement leads to too high expectations doesn't it no. Matter who wins this election, can they live up to those expectations I. Mean it. Really will be a big task to fix the economy Absolutely and that that may be I think that. Will be a challenge for. Who whoever wins whoever forms the next, government because they may be a crisis of expectation some really huge promises have been. Made. By all, contenders in this in this election. And that? They will fix the economy especially? The cash crisis within weeks or just? A couple, of months and it might take a little longer than that Yeah I mean. Unemployment is a massive problem as well isn't it Yes although bear. In mind a lot of Zimbabwe's, economy is in the informal sector so peop-. Some people actually working but a lot, of it is inform allies. But, in terms of the formal economy it has shrunk for sure now can you, just take us through the the two front. Runners. And. The election, just tell us a little bit about, them okay Well the the, two frontrunners are the current incumbent who's the president Emmerson, Mnangagwa who is Zanu PF he, was Robin is right and men mnangagwa's is. Positioning himself as a reformer he was, with them Gubbay but he's. He's, actually done quite a lot in terms of trying to bring the economy forwards MS Broughton is putting some new laws and. Legislation Against him is Nelson Chamisa who was Morgan, chunky rice right and is really courting the. Youth vote and bear in mind a lot of sixty around six percent. Of voters under forty five so China, says hoping to really get a an electoral bounce from from that but if I may just. Very quickly mentioned there are a lot. Of other contenders and they are for. Women presidential candidates contesting which, is a, I in Zimbabwean electoral history so there's a lot of new things happening in this. In this election so it's all to play for As you mentioned that size of a portrait portion of. The electorate is is quite young To the to the issues that, they care about are they different from do they differ from the rest of the electorate For the young of it is about jobs, because we have a situation where a lot. Of young people have got they have got to grease their well-qualified well. Educated but they've, been unable to find him claims so either they, leave the, country or they go into the informal sector so for them a lot of. Issues about who can? Provide jobs Shami says made a lot of promises And it remains to be seen whether he can. He can do that but even within. Zanu PF there's a strong youth element there as well so for the young people it's really about jobs in the sense of a future, within the country rather than outside okay excellent NextRadio, from the Africa program at Chatham house I. Know you're going to be staying with us in the next hour so. We'll be hearing, from you again for now it's coming up to, five thirty, GMT you're listening to weekend.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing
"The german chancellor angela merkel has ended around with her conservative coalition partners over immigration but now her centreleft partners the social democrats don't seem all that happy with what's being agreed let's get the latest on this we've pill whose an associate fellow at chatham house quinton also used to be the fte's berlin correspondent good evening to you quentin i guess this is demonstrative of the ongoing challenge of any coalition you spend one hundred plates you keep the the right those on the right happy those on the left and are not happy how would you characterize the problem mobile continues to face here i think that it's a pretty fractious coalition clearly it was the second choice coalition right from the start and her problem is actually her closest partner more than the spd the social democrats e have really swallowed an awful lot to join this coalition and i think they will now avoid as much as they can having general having another election but so it's hosts eho for the man with whom she did the deal yesterday who's actually the real problem and i have the impression that i wonder if i'm gonna merkley slightly lost her ruthless streak she always used to have a brilliant way of allowing people who were threat to her if you like to shaft themselves she didn't do it with hosts ceo for last night she did a deal with him and it may not hold because both the social democrats have very embarrassed by it and as we hear australia's also pretty uncomfortable with what's at me is it all going to fall apart if that is the case about marco what does this suggest that she lost some of her appetite and we've talked before about you know it's been an extraordinary period you know as sort of figure head not really just for germany but really for the whole european bloc and so on and she she lost her enthusiasm if not for the job and then for the the more of the kind of the real bustle part of it i think she knows that her time is running out and that always gives us sort of slightly fantasia flavor even to the person involved at the heart of it i mean she actually came to the brussels summit last week looking quite good she'd gone away saying i've got to try and get a european solution and even though it wasn't perfect she did come home with some sort of european solution and then guess what hosts ceo for meant to be her closest ally in government said it wasn't good enough for him well i think at that moment she probably should've called his bluff and said you know either put up with it all go and in fact she has now bent over and sorta given in quite a lot by saying that germany's gained to set up these transit camps or whatever they are on the borders which is something that the social democrats will find very difficult to swallow let's have a bit of a thing about what might happen next and say hoffer said he's going.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk
"You're listening to the foreign desk on monocle twenty four with me andrew muller joined now by ahmed soliman research associate with the africa program at chatham house amid i wanted to talk about the vision thing as it is occasionally called where newish national leaders concerned what do we understand of any overarching vision for eighth yo pierre that abi ahmed may have well it's becoming clearer i think a lot of people following the country we're uncertain when i came in a couple of months ago now to office what he would bring personally and what his government would bring but what they all bringing sort of energy a lot of activity and after three very turbulent is free theo pure internally with political protests dominating the agenda within the country he's transformed the mood he seems to be persuaded being a lot of people in the country that he can be in inclusively does someone who brings stability to the country who restores in some respects the external image the regional image of the country and who also pushes reforms in terms of foreign policy much broader than within the region in the horn of africa so they seem to be more exciting times in the rav of changes that we've seen over the last couple of months introduced from the government and initiatives that beam embarked upon a testimony to this is unlikely to be any pushback any resistance to them do you think especially some of the domestic economic reforms he's talked about privatizing fao telecom and ethiopian airlines especially among other state assets but the opn airlines of course is it's not just the flag carrier it's how ethiopia has long announced it self unbranded itself to the world and it is an airline in which at least in my experience of ethiopia people take great pride will they be happy about it being sold will absolutely in terms of the image in the projection of ethiopian airlines i think that there is likely to be some pushback we've seen some resistance internally from constituent members of the ethnic coalition federation of the party and that's something we shouldn't forget that there is an ethnic federation in ethiopia and the government has to still work in a consensus based mana when when when coming up with his policies so there will be some pushback undoubtedly but i think also that the economic necessities seem to me to suggest that this is this is a prudent course to go down and it's not we're not talking about full liberalisation in ethiopia i think it's a very gradual process that that ethiopia is partners around the globe have been asking and suggesting the opiate go down for some time and so we're seeing paul show liberalized nation over the medium to long term of some of the state led companies like ethiopia telecom and the airlines and also the shipping and logistics company amongst others and i think the advantages of that for ethiopia all they've been in a foreign currency they have a foreign currency problem at the moment says able to improve that bring for in to the country while also may be streamlining some of the perations and improving efficiencies and you know it remains to be seen where they go with this but it could be a real positive if they take that time due diligence and really study the business environment when looking to portion some of these shares to private owned companies the thing is when you look at what are beyond mid has promised and indeed it some of what rbm has already delivered the prospects are quite exciting and you don't need to spend that much time you need to realize that it is an extraordinarily potentially wealthy and spor is country other any causes for concern however we are beyond ahmed is concerned would of course as i mentioned at.
First clues emerge about Cuba's future under new president
"Approaching twenty four minutes past the hour just gone in fact we're joined now four look through the day's newspapers by jacob power kilos deputy head for the us and america's program at chatham house welcome jacob to you and your first pick force front page of the new york times the new cuban leader who is described in the headline s progressive but loyal to the cuban revolution we are speaking about miguel diaz canal mutism who's the the first non castro president of cuba since nineteen fiftynine who was claimed by the convention of the cuban communist party yesterday and is now in charge well mostly in uncharted.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
"A wild back go to chatham house he didn't show you know there's been several incidents where um the president's position has been untenable and and an absence embarrassments i mean i in our myself being involved in in our south african a foreign policy circles as well um it's always referred to as the master of the president a being are so so it's kind of um people walk around the president's in our but but it's it's becoming an untenable situation and has been for very long time is there any sense that the inc genuinely fees for its own prospects there are elections do i believe 2019 general election in south africa south africa res one of those strange quirks of democracy unity as a democraticallyelected oneparty state or at least it has been since 1994 does the inc actually feared that one day it might end up in opposition this is on a very important points um that you raise because when people took about the anc in power they forgets that um it was voted a 1994 as a tripartite alliance that comprises the struggle party the party mandela but also the sacp at left and neighbors of the trade unions and so on there has been a lot of disatisfaction with the trade unions and the hard left especially um with the direction of the anc people wanting by the cool um economic transformation the municipal elections local government elections in 2016 especially on the and see all was quite surprised in are bought by how many a local councils um it it was defeated in those elections and um that was one kind of direct wakeup cool you know the deafening on people are are becoming quite fed up in waiting bela actively just forcing with their feet but then of course casaus who itself as well as splits up m e uh gnome serve which is one of the biggest it is the big biggest trade union the trade union of metal workers left kosau to um and i think what is going to be difficult for roma pozza as leader of the nc in this kind of broad churches they call it teen of moderates.
"chatham house" Discussed on Click
"Aiming the internet at a german tech gathering and we'll have comment as we go along from get unfolding ten this week i think you'll find hello glen hello gareth get to see after christmas and happy new year to everyone a bit late apps yeah i think we can still say happy new year even at lake live in the especially is withering if you tech prediction say to me it's still very new year first though very serious issue that message that leads to thirty eight minutes of dread in hawaii over the weekend ballistic missile threat inbound to hawaii seek immediate shelton said the message and it went on this is not a drill well at least that lost bet walls accurate it wasn't a drill because act it was a false alarm the employees who triggered that alert has been reassigned to other duties witold and reports also suggest that bad interface design contributed to the era of north korea's missile and nuclear program is seen as a growing threat of course to the united states and alaska and hawaii all these states closest to north korea li false alarm just happened to come in the same week that the policy institute chatham house released a report nc the vulnerabilities of nuclear weapons systems say much of that technology of course harks back to decades before today's cyber threats and that certainly is a worry as one of the report's authors patricia lewis will tell us in this program she's right here in the studio patricia is research i write to if the international security department at chatham house say first that if we talk about your report what was your rat since the instant over the weekend in hawaii well and festival we thought it might be a hack ntv in that system at kelly lesson taye hack into the missile system and bought two could it be and a high can i think i understand that they were considering that is a possibility at one point and but i think what it does show a couple of things one is that the an architecture i'm which these systems are built are not always fully thought through some of them have been ancient.
"chatham house" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Brexit obsessed united kingdom do you observe something different well i haven't been your long enough relieved to see that other than the news flow is you've mentioned john very correctly has been a constant soap opera of in okay conservative party tory party back and forth back and forth back and forth yeah let's get getting a little bit better for you today i am cable at one thirty seven 48 with we coming in by about a third of one percent tell ya and you see that with weaker dollar israel let me bring in our our our first guest john farrow who you know quite well robin have ladies with chatham house they do wonderful work and thinking about international relations robin let me give you an open question start what is the chatham house lead sa four this january the leaders say for us is europe i think it's still just about brexit it's about the italian election it's about whether mccoll and angloma coal can get it together fanglin local can get a government put together to lead a rejuvenation of european integration this matters because the united states is selfobsessed and where europe goes i think matches full big question is like the future of the global economy include global cooperation so europe is all main focus will air i mean folkard nielsen of unicredit was adamant that europe arguable is doing better than the united states to buy that idea not only economically but almost politically let's see everything's relative i think the united europe and the european union are doing better in the sense that they waved off some of the big popular skies of 2017 missing some i think what looks like sustainable growth which is picked out of the draghi programme of fiscal easing of monetary easing and the i i do think there are some quite deep roots.
"chatham house" Discussed on Monocle 24: The Foreign Desk
"Shortly helmet is a senior fellow in the project on us relations with the islamic world at the center for middle east policy at the brookings institution and the author of the new book islamic exceptionalism how the struggle of islam is reshaping the wool some vakil is of associate fellow at the middle east and north africa program at chatham house thank you both very much for joining us shaw the ask you first why does cata matter if we're talking about a conflict or a proxy conflict recalled conflict between iran and saudi arabia why has cattle become significant well cutters a bit of an unusual case in the sense that it's adopted a pretty independent foreign policy it dozen follow the path that the saudi arabia and other gulf countries wanted to follow and that's really at the source of the divide and and the ongoing crisis is that cuts are kind of does it sewn thing and that's on a number of different levels it doesn't have a great relationship with iran but it has a relationship unlike the saudis who really see iran as their number one enemy in their number one problem and then you have the issue of political islam and cutter has been a more open and supportive of is slim has groups that are associated with the muslim brotherhood and we release saw that become a key divide during the arab spring were the saudis and the uae were in some sense the main counter revolutionary force in were very much opposed to groups like the muslim brotherhood coming to power through democratic elections where the cutlery is were were okay with that and wanted to see that happen in that was in a sense a way for them to project their influence through these friends and allies who were rising to the fore starting in two thousand eleven.