20 Burst results for "Carter Braxton"
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Let's bring in chart master Carter worth of worth charting Carter. Well, that's right. I mean, think today, sector wise energy was the best, but did very little to repair what is a bad week? I think Jeff really hit on it. We've got a circumstance on a near term basis where many of these charts have a rollover characteristic. But first, let's start with crude. Crude has had this sort of epic bull bear period. We know of two years ago, it was a trench related trading at 65 a barrel, a doubled. Obviously related to the Ukraine invasion, and it gave it all back. But the important thing is where we're sort of now in relation to where we've been. Look at the next chart, which is the same thing, but the annotations are different. These are well defined lows and energy probe those lows, energy collapse this week oil went right to those and we got a vigorous balance. I think that's intraday, very bullish price action. My hunch is to be long WTI crude here. But energy stocks that final chart, this is the XLE. And so this is the circumstance. We do have a lot of, again, stocks that have taken on a rollover cache just as Jeff is intimating. And that is worrisome day to day. What offsets that to some extent is that we are down to a well defined trendline that's been in effect since the COVID low. My hunch is that they're a little overdone and that we will get a bounds generally speaking in the energy complex. Carter, thanks. We'll see you in just a few and options action. Carter Braxton worth are worth charting. Bonham, where do you stand on energy stocks? Yeah, so listen, I think that's an interesting setup. And Jeff and Carter both bring us some interesting points in terms of short term. And that speaks to the trading aspect of it. I want to jump to Oxy because I think that's very interesting from an investment standpoint. That is very much a deleveraging recapitalization story. So from an investor standpoint, I think that in particular makes a lot of sense and I can understand why Berkshire has continued to deploy capital there. This is the first or the second O does it matter, but it actually, if you want to play that game, I believe it's the second O. I believe in mojo, it was metals, Occidental, and then J would be JCI. We determine whether it's and then the last though, of course, the OIH. I'm with the icebreaker. And I don't want to get too wonky here. Remember we used to play that other game contango or backwardation. We had the music. Remember that whole thing? We had the video of the people tangoing and then we would play it backwards for backwardation. Absolutely genius. Yeah. I mean, if our crack staff and EC, if it wasn't a Friday, maybe they would put it last 20. It's a little too much. But I'll say this as crude oil has come lower. You would think the contango would get steeper. The exact opposite is taking place without making your eyes glaze over, which is actually very bullish there. All right. Coming up, we've got yet another
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Welcome back to fast money. Apple will round out the fang earnings reports next week. But how will the stock hold up compared to its big tech peers? Let's ask the chart master Carter Braxton worth of worth charting. What do you see Carter? We shall see, of course, my bias is that it's priced in a whole bunch. We have a well defined series of lower highs since its peak. And we know of course it peaked the same day the market did. It set the high for January 2021. And the issue is interesting. The implied move in earnings would take you right back to the August high from last summer. So we closed around one 68, 70, that high is one 76, 3.9% would get you to that high. Either way, I think you would be right to hedge going into earnings. And in the event that it pulls a pop like a Microsoft or something like that, I would sell into the pub. How do you see the pop that a Microsoft had, for instance? Is that a sustainable pop? Does it mean anything good in the future for Microsoft or is this just a pop? Right. Well, so the magnitude of a gap up or down often determines how much is priced in. And for instance, when a bank drops and gaps 30%, it finds a floor, or when you gap up like a meta, I notice meta doesn't move now. If the pop is small, three, four, 5%, you can get follow through or the drop. But when it's epic, you know, ten, 12, 50%. Markets are pretty efficient in repricing a security to where it belongs. So in the case of Microsoft, I would start to reduce exposure, certainly meta. So how do you look at, for me, the big shiny number of apple is that one 82 86, the $3 trillion market cap number. Well, that's the former high. Yep. So when you look at that, it's either a magnet or it's kryptonite for the stocks. It's usually it's kryptonite first, and then it becomes a magnet. I feel as if they're chasing that number and everyone's put into their algorithms as their cell stops, basically. But then it breaks through a markets have a way of breaking through. What do you feel about that number? Sure. So the first key level is that August high, the high that set the market high for the S&P and for Apple. Were we do get through that. Then you are looking at the former high. When you first approach a former 52 week high or low, before you go through it, you contend with it. This is a matter of technique. So when a stock goes quickly to a 52 week low, it typically doesn't crash through. It backs and fills. And then goes lower. So to your point, it is a magnet. I don't think we're going to get there in this earnings print. But if and as we were to get ultimately to the high, you almost never break out initially. You contend, which is to say you back away or you back in fill. Carter, we'll see you shortly an option. Thank you. Carter Braxton worth a worth charting. Guy, how are you feeling about Apple? Well, it's clearly it's ten pointed out earlier. I mean, big cap, high valuation tech, which Apple is, by the way, is a flight to quality. It's what we're seeing over the last couple of weeks. And I understand it when banks are a scary place to be. People want to go into these great balance sheets. It makes sense. But it comes down again at some point to valuation and slowing growth. And that's been the story about Apple over the last few quarters, regardless of what people want to believe if you just look at the numbers, things have been slowing down and the valuation continues to get higher. So lower highs, lower lows, makes sense to me, you're taking profits here. Tim. Yeah, the setup into Apple is different than the setup into the other stocks. I mean, every other mega cap tech stock, depending on even what they did afterwards, they all reacted somewhat differently. But the numbers were such that it was a relief week. It really was. Interesting, by the way, apple's reports so much later than the rest of mega cap check. I'm not even sure why that is. We usually get them all on the same day. So Apple is now sitting out there mid next week. If you look in this putting my Carter hat on a relative basis to the S&P, we're back up to this level that it's been at a couple times over the last year on a ratio chart, where I think you run into resistance. And again, outperformance of the S&P of almost 23% in the last four months is heroic. And it makes sense. We know why. And a lot of that came after SVB. So no, I think like others, it sounds like apple's probably going to need to really knock your socks off and that may not be enough. Yeah, most important thing to me is apple's obviously the largest component in the S&P and in the NASDAQ, both of them are below their February 2nd highest, given everything that's happened this week. That to me is a little bit shocking. I don't think apple is going to break out the indices. Coming up, one stock field up in a
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"There's a rule here, you can't bring back the guests and Danny Moses left, so I started the camp bring them back. But he talked about stagflation two years ago. So this is, I look at CPI as an inflation gauge, still 5%. And it's still been persistent as can be. PPI was a disaster. Now, people will say that's a great thing, but that to me is more of an economic age. And when you couple that with ISM, things are going really poorly on the economic front. So you have an economy that's, I don't want to say cratering, but clearly slowing down, and you have this persistent inflation in the form of CPI. If for some reason the market is championing all of this because they think magically, the fed in the back half of this year with a three and a half percent unemployment rate is to come to the rescue. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. But with that said, I mean, right now, the market's on autopilot cruise control. Coming up buy low sell AI. Could chat GPT make your portfolio pick the man behind a new research report that takes the bot to Wall Street next, don't go anywhere, more fast money into. Welcome back to fast money, Walmart jumping almost 9% in the past month, but the question is, has a stock come too far? The chart master Carter Braxton worth says, yes, he is out with a sell call on the retailer today saying it is trading at a difficult level, Walmart far outpacing major averages since last June surging 25% since the market's June 16th low. That is handily beating the NASDAQ 100. The S&P as well as a consumer staple. Index, it's peers. What do you think of Walmart? I'm long Walmart, and I have been selling upside calls around one 60. And I've been called away on some a little bit lower. So I think multiple, I love the company. And I love the inventory recovery, and I think they've made major adjustments. And I think the trade down to Walmart will continue. But it's a valuation story here. Agree. Same. And not as big as I used to be. For the reasons Tim said, also, I think the PE is high ish, but it's actually not quite as high as it seems because they've been spending spending spending. And I think they could curtail that if they want. But it's sort of no man's land to me. 22 times for Walmart's not crazy, but it's expensive to this environment. It's had a big run that and I never use this term because here you go. But here you go. So but come on, barbel approach. Of Walmart on one side. On the other side, which I didn't even know that the MH was moet. It's working. But when dubs puts out a note like this into earnings, I believe in the 18th of May, which is what a month or so away. I think you got to take notice. Since mid March, look at what Staples have done. Look at what some of these more defensive retailers have done. And Tim makes a great point. I mean, what they've done in inventory, like the bomb that they dropped last spring on that front. They've spent quarters now getting it right. But I'll just say this is like if you were buying those because you wanted to be defensive a month ago in the throws of what you thought was a financial crisis. I think you probably at this point want to take some profits in that sort of thing. They were trading at 5 month lows. That's where Walmart wars. That's where the XLP was. So 10% names like these for no really good fundamental reason. Really positioning to me, that sounds like more of a great trade than a good entry point for investment in my opinion. Is Walmart defense defensive stock? Yes, I think so. I think it's defensive because also when you consider that food and grocery is half of their sales and that they continue to be a place that can control their supply chain and push back on inflation. I mean, there is nimble as anybody can be there as powerful as anyone can be in retail. And their defensive. But it trades at a 7 turn premium to target. Karen started. Right. And at some point, maybe that's not appropriate. Yeah, and I think it's been that defensive play is sort of worked. And yeah, but did you see Carter's lines? I mean, like literally to a T they drew themselves and they were to the penny and so when he's got an arrow pointing down when it's a red arrow and you see the uptrend that it might go to, like that looks like about 10%. That chart is no pair of twos. I mean, you know what? People are here. There's like a bird flying around. Giant eyes. That's like a bat. What's going on? It's like half inch. I'm gonna S.W.A.T. that. And I don't want to hear any stories from people saying I'm killing it. S.W.A.T. was a
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Next. The consumer showing some muscle has retail and discretionary stocks head north, but can the rally continue the traders weigh in next. Plus, congressional question marks, lawmakers, trading bank stocks amid last month's turmoil, and it's raising a few eyebrows. The moves they made during the recent financial practice, you're watching fast money, live from the NASDAQ market site in Times Square. We're back right after this. Really? Welcome back to fast money. Another check on markets so they stocks fairly muted ahead of tomorrow's CPI printed out climbing nearly a hundred points. It's 8th positive session in 9, the NASDAQ dropping nearly half a percent. The S&P down by less than a hundredth of a percent basically unchanged, our friend Carter Braxton worth pointing out in a note, a short time ago that the S&P today is literally his favorite term, a pair of twos. And he adds that going back to 1970 and the more than 12,800 trading sessions, the S&P has finished unchanged just 29 times. That's less than one quarter of 1%. Meantime, some discretionary and retail stocks gaming steam, Ralph Lauren, Newell Brands, pool corp all up big and CarMax leading the group up nearly 10% after reporting earnings this morning. Tim, less than a quarter of a percent of the time, the S&P finishes unchanged. Maybe that tells you just how I don't know on the wire it is in terms of the CPI and the PPI reports coming out. Yeah, well, and retail sales also on Friday. So there's a lot of important data this week on top of bank earnings. And I can understand the pair of twos, especially because nobody thought it was going to be here. But I just feel like that this market has given you a lot of opportunities to trade. So, you know, if you're black jacks a higher kind of velocity game than poker, I mean, you know, you sometimes you throw your hands, you know, the cards back down and you wait for the next round to be dealt. Pardon the Kenny Rogers, I guess was the gambler? I don't know. So sorry for all the poker metaphors here. I just feel like, but you started it. I think you have a case here where this is a market that that's probably why it's interesting because people have continued to think that the market can't go higher. Meanwhile, back to this breadth conversation and everyone's been right about the reasons for mega cap tech outperforming. It's been a safety trade. God pointed out the absurdity of Microsoft and chat GPT and what that means right here and now. But before all this happened in SVB, the breadth of the market was outstanding. You saw industrials outperforming transports outperforming even emerging markets outperforming resources certainly energy. That got derailed by SVB. If we're starting to put some of that in the rearview mirror, I think we can have the kind of breadth that we actually had before. All right, coming up trouble trading out of D.C. lawmakers making moves in regional bank names amid last month's financial failures, the details on that story next. Plus, the sun seems to be shining on crypto winter will the search continue or is another crypto crush on the horizon. Don't go anywhere more fast money in two. Welcome back to fast money. The Wall Street Journal first reporting that as Silicon Valley bank was collapsing, a number of lawmakers who are working to deal with the crisis were also trading some of the bank stocks in the eye of the storm, representative Nicole malliotakis, a Republican from New York bought stock in New York community Bancorp, just two days before one of its subsidiaries agreed to take over signature banks deposits. Malliotakis had discussed signatures closure with regulators prior to her purchase of NYCB stock, a representative for the congresswoman told CNBC that quote the financial adviser who manages the congresswoman's portfolio made the recommendation to purchase, I want to know who that financial adviser is. That's pretty good advice. Representative Earl blumenauer, Democrat from Oregon disclosed three bank trades as part of his spouse's retirement portfolio. On March 9th, the day before SVB failed, they bought shares of SVB and sold shares of Bank of America on March 20th. They sold shares of first republic, luminar is a co sponsor of legislation to tighten restrictions on financial firms. And then there is representative John Curtis, a Republican from Utah. He sold shares of first republic and Bank of America on March 16th, those trades were made under a joint fund owned by Curtis and his wife, CNBC has confirmed these trades, but not received comments from representative Illumina or Curtis. So should we be outraged? That lawmakers who are setting policy for in this case, the banks. And have insight into their operations that we may not have are trading these stocks. Let's dive into that with Kate Kelly, New York Times money and influence reporter in Washington and a CNBC contributor Kate. Great to see you again, great to have you on this topic. You know, I read this article this morning. I'm sure many Americans did and just were absolutely outraged, that this is, this happened, that this is able to happen. Yeah, Melissa, what's interesting here is that this is perfectly legal, as far as we know. The stock act of 2012 is the main piece of legislation that governs kind of member stock trading and disclosures. And so they've disclosed as they need to. They've made it clear what they did and when. And that is sort of the end of their responsibilities. Of course, they're not allowed to insider trade. None of us are, and the stock act reminded members of that. But you know, I engaged in a 6 months investigation of congressional stock trading last year with two colleagues here at the times. And we found that nearly a 5th of the Congress and Senate over a three year period had engaged in this type of trading, which is to say trading that arguably could have been related to what they were doing in Congress. Maybe they were on a committee taking care of the financial sector that they were trading bank stocks. In this case, it happens that neither blume in our normal attack is nor Curtis is on a relevant banking committee. But you can see other touch points here. Legislation in the one case discussions with New York regulators about what was going to happen to a New York charter bank in the other. Is there any what is the remedy for this if anything Kate? Do these guys get a slap on the wrist? I mean, is that it? They won't get anything other than perhaps the headline risk that we're contributing to with this discussion, right? Because again, as far as we know in the absence of other sort of damaging facts, which we don't have, this is perfectly legal. Now, there are legislative fixes that have been under discussion for years in Congress and in the Senate. And some of them have been re initiated in the new Congress this year. One pretty well known one is co sponsored by Abigail spanberger, Democrat of Virginia, and chip Roy Republican of Texas. And they essentially would ban members from engaging in any sort of trading. They would want people to be in a qualified blind trust and not transact in individual securities nor allow their immediate family members to do that. A lot of members of Congress think that sort of a maneuver is too extreme. So perhaps we'll see a sort of compromise deal at some point where maybe the disclosure time frame is tightened up right now. It's 30 days with like a grace period of 15, maybe that would get shorter. Maybe there would be some limitations put, but not a blanket ban. But so far, there has not been the political will to do this that I've seen. Kate, it's Karen. Thanks so much for being on. So you said at the top that they are, you know, the insider trading laws still apply, but are they immune from an investigation into whether there was insider trading? I mean, some of this looks so bad to talk about, oh, I made the trade on the recommendation of my adviser of my adviser. Maybe I should do my adviser. They still made the trade and baby, but you said to your adviser, hey, something good's going to happen in YB. What should I do? I think the adviser may be an attempt to say this was sort of done at arm's length. It wasn't my idea, it was my adviser's idea. And when we did this investigation last year, we talked to something like a hundred congressional
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Yeah, so you and age we saw over three times the average daily call while you trading in this one. One of the bigger trades that I saw was a purchase of the April 5 15 calls a block of 600 of those trading for just under $2 and 70 cents a contract, buyer of those calls, betting that the pop that we saw today could continue. We're going to see another four and a half percent or so upside by April expiration. And by the way, I should point out that April expiration also will capture earnings, which they are going to be reporting on the 14th. Tim, you're watching this move. Well, I'm long UNH, and this is the gift that keeps on giving. I mean, this company has a management team that at least has got the market believing they're going to grow EPS 13 to 15% over the next 5 years. They're so well positioned and diversified across the healthcare space and have exposure to some of the faster growing parts PBM and explains why they continue to defy their own valuations. So you're buying weakness in my view on anything here. If you get it. It wasn't this one of the charts. Mike, I'm sure you remember Carter Braxton worked, didn't he call this chart godlike or some something like that. I mean, it was just like one of these terms that you rarely hear Carter use. Other than talking about Mike. He did say that. And you know, an interestingly to Tim's point, this is a company that is typically traded at a premium to the S&P right now, it is trading at about the same turn. This is also a name that we hold actually just under 7% of the portfolio in U and it's definitely a name that I like as well. You don't usually get it at this type of a turn relative to the S&P. All right, Mike, thanks for more options action tune into the full show that is next
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"In this tech stock. Carter Braxton worth of worth charting joins us now. Carter, what do you see? Yeah, I just don't see what the upside is. This is look, this is what I would call the face of fear. We put out a note to that effect. And what you have, of course, and it's good technique, actually, in anyone, schooled in the business, so called if that means an MBA or CFA or a CPA or some nice acronym. When things are dodgy and you're concerned about the economy and things that are cyclical, you hide, you rotate into either classic safety names, otherwise refer to soap and cereal, soup makers, and detergent makers, or you go into idiosyncratic growth. And we're seeing that that's Microsoft. That's Apple. And apple is just a recipient of a whole lot of money and rotation as people abandon banks and abandoned energy. And so does that make this a good thing? Okay, it's doing better, but look at this chart that's just appeared on the screen. There's a very well defined trendline, yes. And it's bounced off that trendline since the O2 low perfectly. It did it yet again. But the here and now is not particularly interesting. In fact, it gets into that maybe why bother. Consider this, there's some 46 analysts that cover it. My goodness, I can myself only name 20 brokerage firms. And the collective price target one year at once. One year hence is up 6%. Really? That's not inspiring. I just don't think there's any right now. Okay, this is a great short. Not particularly. But I don't see, I don't see the case. If that's the best we can do here, look at this truck. What about that says anything other than I'm going to I'm in a range. I'm wondering, yeah, I'm doing better than other things. Now, but the final chart we have, and this is telling, this is a ratio chart. It depicts apple's relative performance to the excel K to the tech sector. It's rolled over. Apple is actually underperforming other choices one could make. Within the S&P 500 technology sector. Carter, I would like to ask you a question about that first chart that you had up and that is with the trendline. And I'm wondering, has it actually broken that trendline? Because the past couple of times I'm wondering if you thought that it would break then and then actually bounce because Apple bulls are probably looking at the charts saying, but Carter but Carter, look, it's holding the trendline. It's going to bounce just like I did before three times. Yeah, it undercut ever so slightly. And so that's encouraging for those of us who aren't that sort of bold up on Apple. And it's managed to get back above that trendline. So in 100 magnification, you'll see that actually undercut that line. And that was back above it. All right, Carter, we'll see you shortly in options action, Carter Braxton worth, or worth charting, Courtney, where do you stand on Apple? I mean, he makes the I think he might have even implied pair of twos. From that chart. I didn't say it. Pulling out his usage. Which has been very heavy lately. But it says so much. But Apple. And I understand, it was basically people are flocking to this to safety, right? Because it has been such a great performer for the last decade. And there are positives about Apple. I mean, it is a great company. They have a lot of cash on their balance sheet. They're about $54 billion currently. But I still can't justify how high of the valuation is right now, even if rates come down. I don't think it justifies 25 times next year's earnings. So it's not something that I'd be rushing into, especially as a safety trade right now. I often say to people don't cut your flowers and keep your weeds in our apple is absolutely a flower, but after this run and it's defensiveness in this market, that's what it's been. And I think it's, again, I've been more tactical on the market overall, but with Apple and people hate me for this, but I think the stock needs to trade lower for the market to actually find its proper place. Cut a flower now? So, well, I mean, look, and I would put it in a vase and hand it to my wife, of course. But no, I think this is a flower you would cut. There's plenty of weeds. I would also cut, but this is a flower to cut. All right. Use your tractor to cut that flour. No. The tractor would stomp the flour. No, I take out my shears, and I'd cut it. Very gently, okay. All right. As I do. It's curious. Tim has a tractor. Coming up, gold, glittering this month in our guy down, he thinks the sparkle is
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"<Speech_Female> <Silence> <Advertisement> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Music_Female> <Music> Welcome back to fast money Visa rebounding <Speech_Female> sharply off its <Speech_Female> lows erasing a three <Speech_Female> and a half percent drop <Speech_Female> to finish in the green, <Speech_Female> but options traders <Speech_Female> are betting this payment <Speech_Female> player is in for more <Speech_Female> pain, maiko's got the <Speech_Female> action, Mike. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> Yeah, so <Speech_Music_Male> Visa traded <Speech_Music_Male> almost 2.7 <Speech_Male> times its average daily <Speech_Male> put volume and puts <Speech_Male> outpaced <Speech_Male> calls the busiest <Speech_Male> puts were the <Speech_Male> March 31st, <Speech_Male> 205 <Speech_Male> strike puts. We saw <Speech_Male> about 2900 <Speech_Male> of those trading <Speech_Male> the buyers were paying a little <Speech_Music_Male> over three bucks a <Speech_Music_Male> contract. Now <Speech_Music_Male> I would point out that <Speech_Music_Male> as you just said, <Speech_Male> the stock did rally <Speech_Male> sharply <Speech_Male> off of its low end. <Speech_Male> Most of those traded by <Speech_Male> about 10 a.m., but <Speech_Male> the stock still did <Speech_Male> underperform both <Speech_Male> information <Speech_Male> technology and financials <Speech_Male> and the buyers of those puts <Speech_Male> are betting that <Speech_Male> the stock could be lower <Speech_Male> by 5 to 7% <Speech_Male> by the end of this month. <Silence> Tammy <Speech_Female> like Visa. <Speech_Female> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> Now, <Speech_Male> I'll <Speech_Male> let Carter speak to the <Speech_Male> chart. I don't like that <Speech_Male> chart. But <Speech_Male> you know, I think the <Speech_Male> <SpeakerChange> valuation <Speech_Male> is not terrible, <Speech_Male> but we all know <Speech_Male> the macro data around <Speech_Male> credit card balances <Speech_Male> and where the consumer <Speech_Male> is and <Speech_Male> ultimately <Speech_Male> the wealth <Speech_Male> effect that we've also were just <Speech_Male> talking about with <Speech_Male> both with Caleb <Speech_Male> and with Rosie. <Speech_Male> None <Speech_Male> of this really <Speech_Male> feeds well into <Speech_Male> credit card spending. So <Speech_Male> now I'm not chasing <Speech_Male> Visa here. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Male> Can you speak to the chart? <Speech_Male> I can. <Speech_Male> And here's the thing. <Speech_Male> It's a pair twos. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> It's just a term. <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> That's not a bull, it's not <Speech_Male> a bear. Sometimes stocks <Speech_Male> are where they belong. <Speech_Male> It belongs <SpeakerChange> here. <Speech_Female> All right, for more options, <Speech_Female> action. Mike, thank you for <Speech_Female> watching this action tune into the <Speech_Female> full show 5 30 p.m. <Speech_Female> Eastern Time. Up next <Speech_Music_Female> final trades. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Female> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Silence> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Time for the <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> final trade. Let's go around <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> the horn, Timothy. <Speech_Music_Female> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Music_Male> GM is not <Speech_Music_Male> a regional bank. And <Speech_Music_Male> I realized that <Speech_Music_Male> the chart has been difficult, <Speech_Music_Male> but this is actually at the bottom <Speech_Music_Male> of a small <Speech_Music_Male> up tray and from back <Speech_Music_Male> last summer, GM <Speech_Music_Male> for the trade. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> Carter Braxton <Speech_Music_Male> worked. <Speech_Music_Male> Bald and oil, oil <Speech_Music_Male> is especially interesting <Speech_Music_Male> here way <Speech_Music_Male> overdone to the <SpeakerChange> downside. <Speech_Music_Male> Chairwoman. Yes, <Speech_Music_Female> on the heels of <Speech_Music_Female> FedEx, I think some of <Speech_Music_Female> the things we'll apply to UPS <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> also <SpeakerChange> to UPS. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Bye. We're getting ranger <Speech_Music_Male> hockey down the street <Speech_Music_Male> tonight. I know. The <Speech_Music_Male> penguins are in town <Speech_Music_Male> and you <Speech_Music_Male> were talking about this earlier <Speech_Music_Male> to the rangers <Speech_Music_Male> basically build <Speech_Music_Male> upon the win the other night <Speech_Music_Male> and just <Speech_Music_Male> thrash the penguins <Speech_Music_Male> tonight. Definitely. <Speech_Music_Male> Yeah, you know what? <Speech_Music_Male> I'm with you on that. I'm <Speech_Music_Male> also with this DHI <Speech_Music_Male> train, which is <Speech_Music_Male> just unstoppable here, <Speech_Music_Male> Tim. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Female> Thanks for watching <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> fast one. You see back here <Speech_Music_Female> tomorrow at 5 more <Speech_Music_Female> fast, meantime, don't go <Speech_Female> anywhere. Mad money <Speech_Music_Female> with Jim Cramer <Speech_Music_Female> starts <SpeakerChange> right now.
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Built to last? Let's bring in the chart master. Carter worth. Well, I mean, I think it is, but what we can discuss, of course, is the concept of ratio work. We know that people spend a lot of time in living large cap versus small cap stocks, value versus growth, the yield curve itself, twos versus tens, but we're going to look at now is the relationship between gold and stocks. So this is a ratio chart. It's gold's relative performance to all stocks. The Russell 3000 index representing 98% of the U.S. investable market. There are no lines there. Let's put some on. So what do we know? If you look at this iteration, that is a well defined trendline. And where does it start? It starts at the moment, the S&P peaked for January of a year ago. Now put some arrows in, just to annotate how precise that line is. It is literally bounce wear to the penny to the penny over and over. Now let's put in the downtrend line. And what you'll see here, that spike in gold in the ratio is the COVID low. The ratio, stocks plunge, and the ratio chart spikes. And so we have these converging trendlines, and today we broke out through the upside of that downtrend line out of that wedge. You can draw the lines this way. It's the same chart again. You can call it a cup and handle. Final chart put in the trendline. It doesn't matter what you call it. It has all the elements of an important bottom. Carter, we noticed that Bitcoin also took off today. What are the charts say about that? Yeah, I think there's a bit more upside. I might have a few here, but think about this. Bitcoin is obviously gold in any given day and moves 24 basis points in the last two, three years, S&P, 50 basis points, Bitcoin's average daily move is about a 170. And big day today, I think you can 28,000 or thereabouts, maybe a little bit more downtrend lines clear. You can see it there. We moved above it. We checked back to it. And we ricocheted. So a little bit more, but not a lot more. All right, Carter, thank you. Carter Braxton worth of worth charting. Grasso, what do you think of gold? I think you can't picture a better environment for gold where everything seems to be crumbling around. You would think that people would rush in the gold. I don't know if there's a real buyer for gold. You know, I don't know who's buying gold right now. I don't think anybody watching the show. I think there's a certain amount of people that would be buyers of gold. And that number has shrunk over the years, but I'll just address the GLD versus the miners. If you think gold's going up, then the miners usually have a bigger move. It's usually three to one move. That's where you get the beta out of gold, both up and down. The G as Tim reminded us during the break in lags is actually four gold. So you are. You know, I remind when the
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Mean it this time around. Friday's report is one of the last economic data points left before the fed's next decision. And as Jerome Powell said today, the Central Bank will be closely watching the data to decide how much it will raise rates later this month. We have not made any decision about the march meeting. We're not going to do that until we see the additional data. The larger point though is that we're not on a preset path, and that we will be guided by the incoming data and evolving outlook. Still, investors are increasingly looking for a 50 basis point hike in March. So we'll Friday's report add more fuel to that fire or can I give the markets some relief here? Guy, what do you think? I think relief is probably the more likely scenario because I think a lot of the hawkish data, a lot of the very hot data we've seen is probably to a certain extent been baked into the moves we've seen this week. But with that all that said, they have a real job to do here. And I think they're what two job openings for every one person is looking for a job, something like that. That does not make their job particularly easy because obviously wages, I think, will continue to move higher. So I think their job is difficult. And I think the market is finally coming to realization that they do have a hard job. I'll say this quickly. I think in terms of fed rate hikes, yes. 7th 8th inning, I get it, but in terms of the market dealing with and incorporating those fed rate hikes very early innings. Bottom of the second, if I made Tim Seymour. He might have said, you might have said jobs like 11 times. And it's not just there's a lot to incorporate. Jobs report. Good job. I mean, I think we should. There's games people used to play at home. Yeah, and when you hear job, do whatever you want to do at home during this telecast. So if you think about the negative build up into this job's number, there's my number one. You had fed funds during power over the last couple of days. The terminal rate went from 5 48 to 5 69. So we priced in a lot of fed over the last couple of days. We took out any real sense of a cut during 23. It doesn't seem like a huge surprise, but it had to happen. The two most important days in the markets over the last 6 months have been that October 13th CPI and that feb second jobs number. There's no way this job's number is going to be as emphatic as important as cataclysmic as that one was because I think we priced in all of this fed stuff going in. So I would also say you heir to the downside in terms of where rates go on this payroll number. But those jolts numbers, guys said it. There's more job openings than there are people in this country. There's no way. Let's play this out. Friday, we get a hot rapport. We get a report that indicates that there are still strength in the labor market. Is it a buy the news event? I don't think so. I mean, again, I think as our friend Carter Braxton worth was saying, it's kind of a pair of twos right here. I mean, we really have to see how this shakes out. Guy just said through the lens of the market, right? Well, really, what is the, how is it going to work into the economy? And that's really the thing right now that I guess we should probably focus on because this GDP now, you know, the Atlanta fed, they just saw Q one, GDP shoot up to like 2.8% from, I think it was at 2%. We have an economy that for whatever reason has not digested nearly 5% interest rate hikes in the fed funds rate since last march in one year, right? Because we have unemployment at these what? 40 some year lows, 53 year lows or something like that. And we have an economy that is just like, we're reopening, too, right? You forget that this was a reopening and the economy should take some time to hit full capacity. Yeah, and so I guess the point is, if we're looking at an S&P, this trade about 18 times and we go over this again and again, it's right around 4000. I mean, is this the appropriate level for the appropriate multiple? And it probably isn't. I mean, I think the bulls will say, listen, maybe the market has discounted whatever weakness we're going to have in the second half of the year. But I mean, right now, I think the fed, I think they're telling you what they're going to do is that the economy is too hot, unemployment is too low. They need to see the economy cool off a little bit before they can take their foot off the pedal. So I was just thinking they're looking back at the ADP report in February, they got it really wrong, right? So if the market has digested this hot hot hot number and tomorrow, it's a big they got it as wrong then it has wrong now as they did then actually we'll see a much cooler employment report. So I don't know. I've always been somewhat skeptical of the ADP as an indicator. And it doesn't actually matter to the body. The track record is terrible. Right. What does it actually matter what the actual number is? It's what's the perception, right? Right. And so this moves perception. And so are you getting sort of a free look at an actual number being much better. I don't know, maybe. So I think that is priced in already. And that being good. Bad right, bad being too hot in the economy. Right. Now, if ADP is correct, I am not comfortable saying yes, ADP is always correct. And so I think you got kind of a free upside on cooler employment. Well, even beyond the jobs report, we have CPI in Tuesday that is the last. This is the most important. In terms of data points. But the CPI is the final data point that we will get. And what has happened in the past month in terms of energy prices. Some of those inputs have gone higher. I mean, if you look at a number of the input, we talked about the used car market, which we rarely talked about over this show's lifetime. We talk about it seemingly every other week now over the last few months, probably correctly so, but those inputs, those variables that start to trend the wrong way for the Federal Reserve. So if you think magically inflation is going to take care of itself, think again, meaning again, their job's not done. But if you listen to Jerome Powell, he is basically stated that what I find puzzling is the market for whatever reason is not taking that into consideration. Nearly enough. Well, what was puzzling to me today is that the semiconductors were up 2.6% and rallied aggressively into the close and now are at over one year relative highs to the S&P. In other words, they have been outperforming the market. They're back to where we were when we were in the go go days of this market. And that's bizarre, because everything that we've been seeing everywhere else both in terms of the equity struggle where we've been seeing rates go would indicate that the cyclicality in the market would be under some pressure. There's a lot of reasons it could be geopolitics. It could be clearing out inventory. There's different reasons we've spent a lot of time talking about semis because they seem to be in the crosshairs of a lot of these conversations, but you can't really explain the semiconductors move if you're somebody that believes that there's not cyclicality in the market that hasn't been worked through. It's been very positive. Yeah, I'd just say this, you know, the last two times in the last 20 some years where fed funds has been above 5%. We had it go above 5 and then to 6 in 1999. That was the same year that the yield curve inverted, okay? And then we know what happened in 2000, the stock market topped out. It got cut in half over the next two and a half years. Go back to 2006. The fed funds got above 5%. And it stayed there. And both times, it stayed there. The fed did what they said they were going to do. They're going to raise interest rates and they're going to keep them there. And we also had an inversion in 2006. So the two ten spread. So here we are again. It's 2023. We have a yield curve inversion that Nostradamus called. He said it was going to go to 1%. It got there. Okay. And everyone was expecting that recession to happen. And it hasn't happened yet. It keeps getting pushed out here. But here's the deal. I mean, just think about that, right? So they're going to keep rates above 5% for a while. Something really bad would have to happen for them to change their tune. And you know, they have bad things that happened in 2007 and 2008 and back in 2000 into the lows of 2002. That really bad things have to happen in order for the fed to change its tune.
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Is channeling his inner animal spirit. He sees a couple of socks turning from bears into bulls, he'll chart out the names when fast money returns. Welcome back to fast money. The chart master out with an update to his list of bearish to bullish reversal buys beaten down stocks that are poised for a bounce. Let's brand Carter worth for a closer look at some of those names on that list. Carter. Well, that's right, from time to time we put out sort of master lists for what it's worth stocks that are either rebound candidates or breakout candidates, but one that is sort of actual or bearish bullish reversal, right? Heretofore laggards that are emerging bottoming basing rising out of the ashes. Let's look at a few. This is DocuSign. Now, basing bottoming, take a look if you add, for instance, another stock. DocuSign on its own, but then the next iteration, if we put in, now we have square. Look at that overlay. You're talking about an 80 plus percent correlation. Try SoFi. They have nothing to do with one another because it's really not about their fundamentals. It's about how money moves in and out of certain stocks, certain asset classes. These are bearish to bullish reversals. Putting the S&P, of course, and you see what we have laggards. And the S&P, again, is a pair of twos. It's unchanged one month, 6 months, one year. It's the same price it was two years ago. The market is sort of dull, but stocks like this offer an opportunity to generate alpha perspectively within a market that's going nowhere. What makes those charts a three charts Carter look bullish to you because the base doesn't even seem that. I mean, you know, what do I know about technical analysis? Nothing, really, except for what you should come on, tell us on the show. We know a lot. But the bases aren't very, very long or anything like that. So I wonder what you see in these particular charts that make you think they're going to turn higher, just that they're underperforming the S and P. You can't be that. Absolutely. Most of them have, right? So just remember, the charters is a coward. I don't want you to go first. Any of you, but with your money and then I'll come in after. Someone, the group, the marketplace, is buying these stocks. They're up substantially off their lows. Hard to see on the screen, but they are. And the price volume correlation is bullish. So the money flow has started to turn them, and it's the precondition of shocking weakness. And now giving way to relative strength, outperforming the market as it goes sideways. That's a good one to set up for perspective further gains. So Carter, you mentioned those three names and I need to throw at you. What do you do with that chart? Because that's the poster child. And it's a direct overlay. Arc, if you were to look at it on its own, has advanced above it's now rising 150 moving average and checked back to it and is bounced off that 150 day. Ah. All right, Carter. Thank you. If you have more time, I'd ask you what's the difference between this and so bad it's good, but that's another segment here. Carter Braxton worth, as always, good to see you. Steve Grasso, would you rather rather, however many rather, there are in this SoFi block DocuSign and we're going to throw in their thanks to Timothy Seymour arc. Yeah, so to Carter's point, they all look the same square. They all have the 50 day moving either towards or right at the 200 day. So that's your golden cross shorter term rising above a longer term average. If I had to pick one of these names that I think you can buy for a longer period of time, it would probably be SoFi, but Melissa, you talked about before. He talks about the S&P being a pair of twos, but this to me means that the market risk is now in the favor of the bulls where people are willing to go out on that risk curve and start buying names like this again, but you have to have a real steal stomach if you're going to buy these. These are very volatile names. Glad you chose that body part. Up next final
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"The charm masters joined the table. Carter Braxton worth, what do you see? Well, there's a lot of bifurcation in the group. Consider, for instance, S&P 500 machinery index, which it's at an all time high today versus the industrials that are transport related, you still have to move almost 20% to get to the high. So there's a lot of winners and losers, but there is this and there's sort of no way around it. If you go back to the beginning of sector data, when S&P changed the sectors in 1989, industrials and you see it on the screen here have been an identical performance of the S&P and so when you say, okay, so what? Well, look at the next chart. This is a ratio chart. It's the same all data chart. So if you have a sector that is performed exactly in line with the S&P, but you've had a lot more beta. It will have on a risk adjusted basis, a poor performer. And so at this point, there are stocks that have shot the moon, Boeing, GE. And I think those are stocks that if you're in, you should take profits or sell short. Yeah, Karen, you're wondering, you have some industrial positions, and I do. You're asking cards. Yeah, before the show. You are right. What do you think? Would you rather? Would you rather buy it or not buy it? Yes, something like that. And I said, come on, Carter, don't you have any of the to the penny to the penny to the president? I just said, I like it. Yes, you did say you like it. Sometimes less is more. Yes. I like it. I mean, it's my only only hesitation with it. It has run so far. It deserves it. They've had an outstanding quarter. This is an under promise over deliver type of management team, but I've never heard them more confident. And with the infrastructure Bill, I mean, for a long time out, they've got a lot of business to do. So I'm sticking with it, even though it is, I hate how much it's run. That's a bad dilemma to be in. Yeah. Walk me through this sort of the fundamental case because if you are a believer that things are going to go pear shaped later on this year, that there's going to be some sort of a recession that companies will be pulling. Et cetera, et cetera. Do you want to be why would you want to be in cyclicals? Why would you want to be in a industrial? But I'll just take Ricardo was and I'll layer on my fundamental view. A lot of those companies in that industrial space are the kind of companies that are increasing free cash flow. They're not expensive companies. And I realize it depends on what you're comparing them to. But again, a company like Boeing is getting back to being that cash flow generative company that it was really back in 2018, 2017 when it was 200 and $400 stock. I look at industrials that have outperformed the S&P by 11% or so since that October low, I look at transports that are now, that's the part of this. Because industrials, I don't know, you tell me Carter. I mean, we're either about to break out. We're near one year highs, and we're back to those levels and we're about to break up. And I almost feel and this is where you need to tell the momentum coming from the transports right behind them, which were slower to the point. That's right. Well, in terms of the industrials overall, we know from their low, that sector is up 25%. Things like gee, are triple that. And they have influence to some extent you get autocorrelation, the performance of the sector overall. At this point, the real question, you're posing it. I don't think I know the answer. Do you double back and find laggards, IE transport type names, railroads, and play those for catch up, or do you stay with something that's quite firm, strong URI? My interest to bar ballot. So for instance, I would take some of the laggards, but the ones that are too extreme, and I would put Boeing and G in that category, not URI, I would fade those. What about like a UPS FedEx? Is that in that? Well, I mean, they're their own creatures. They are in the Dow Jones transportation index of 20 stocks, which is price weighted, of course. But they're sort of their own creatures, right? They're not sort of classic industries. Hypercyclic. Yes, hypercyclic. Neither from my seat is particularly interesting. It comes to the pair twos. Thank you. I look that up early. So you use that Carter. We'll see you in just a few minutes and options action. Thank you. See, Grasso, do you like these industrial names? So I think you nailed it. If you believe that the recession is coming, then you have to either think that we are going to get out of it unscathed. To be a buyer of industrials, but to Karen's point, that money that's coming through from the infrastructure Bill, it's coming through in a big way. There's going to be a long pipeline of cash being handed out. Caterpillar is probably the best one or the most likely recipient for a long extended period of time with a backlog of work. So I think you can think there's going to be a recession and still be bullish on some industrials. All right, coming up from the metaverse to AI,
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Worth. Carter, S&P 500, you know, I told you before that I had a look a pair of twos definition. I'm glad I did because you're using it again. Yeah, you know, I mean, the thing is sometimes it's just what, a malaise, it's stuck. It's spinning its tires, it being a stock, a currency, a commodity and index. The market is basically going nowhere. And in many senses, that's why the pair of twos designation exists. Big hands are big, and we know in life when you have a big opportunity, you go for it. This is not three of a kind. It is not a flush. It is not a straight. It is almost 5 random cards. My bias remains the downside. And I think ultimately that, on an intermediate basis, there's little to no upside and unknown but perspectively meaningful downside. And every time we have these big counter trend moves, the bullish sentiment pops and it seems to be dashed repeatedly. So you see the chart here, converging trendlines, it's even money fair money. Again, my bias is the downside. But let's take a longer term iteration. That's a weird chart. That's 5 years. Again, if you didn't know what it was, that's the thing. And someone showed you this chart, a pictorial representation of price. What about that would make you run out and buy it or frankly? Let's sell all of it short it. It's just sort of equilibrium. Now, does that mean it's going to stay here? Of course not. People think it's going up in a big way. This chart is important. It's the long-term chart picking up the financial crisis. Peak, the O 9 low. And we have ascended within this perfect 45° channel since the O 9 low until we went out through the top in late 21, early 22. And valuations at that point, because fundamentals and charts match up were at our near records. And now we're sitting at the midpoint of the channel. Again, just even Stephen, a pair of twos, but I do think we have more risk of going to the bottom half of the channel than back to the top. What is the bottom half of the channel just for reference Carter? Well, it's how quickly you get there, right? Because it's moving. So if you go there tomorrow, it's sub 3000. If you get there towards the middle of the year, end of the year, it's more like 33, 3500. Okay. Either way, that's a lot. Carter, thank you. You bet. Carter Braxton worth. So we all that chart is pretty scary if you look at the bottom side. And I think it's around 2800 is the bottom of that channel. And as Carter said, so it's 2800 to about 32, 3300. But what's impressive about this market is that we were holding the 200 day. We tapped it again today. Almost down to the penny. So as long as we can keep testing the 200 and stay above, that's your barometer. Unfortunately, there's a couple of tests that are going on it. I think we're going to wind up playing with the same 152 hundred handles in the S&P until we have closure. Right. All right, coming up. We're all over
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Higher into spring. The aforementioned Mike co is here on set with the action Mike. Yeah, so American Airlines we saw at trade more than two times its average daily call volume today. The busiest contract where the April 17 calls those traded over 52 and a half thousand contracts at average price of about 64 cents. That included some big institutional blocks that took place early in the day, 27,035 thousand actually traded before 10 o'clock this morning, buyers with those obviously betting that the stock is going to rally through that $17 strike price. The break-even is the January 18th intraday high of 1764, and they will be reporting earnings on the 21st of April. Mike, how does a company like this? Karen likes talking about balance sheets $10 billion market cap, 9 billion in cash and $44 billion in debt. How do they fly their way out of that one? Well, I mean, that's actually why you want to trade options because the equity gets a lot more volatile, the more levered the balance sheet is. And that's one of the reasons why paying 4% of the current stock price for an out of the money call like that makes sense if you are inclined to make a bullish bet. Where can we learn more about that? Well, I would imagine in 5 30 tomorrow we'll have options action. Mike coco be where the great here on set. Carter Braxton worked. I don't miss a freaking episode. 5 30 p.m. Eastern Time tomorrow. All right, up next, final trades. Final trade, Julie beals. You know, if you want a way to invest in the airlines, but hate the debt, heiko is a great way to do it. Karen. Yeah, like we played in that new game that I seem to have forgotten the name of this very similar to would you rather. One year T bills, that's my final trade. Dan. Yes. In the face guy. I'm going to face. I wouldn't be chasing this one here at 80. Guy. 8 PA corp Melissa Lee. All right, thanks for watching fast, see you back here tomorrow. 5 mad money with Jim Cramer starts right now.
KHVH 830AM
"carter braxton" Discussed on KHVH 830AM
"Men when we had greatness, despair. These were men of means. Well educated 24 were lawyers and jurists. Nine were farmers, owners of large plantations. On June 11th committee sat down to draw up the declaration of Independence where we're going to tell the British fatherland no more ruled by red coat below the dam of ruthless foreign rulers. Stream of freedom was running shallow and muddy. We were going to like a few hours to dynamite that damn This pact as Burke later but it was a partnership between the living and the dead. And yet unborn. There was no bigotry. There was no demagoguery in this group all had shared hardship. Jefferson finished the draft of the document in 17 days. Congress adopted it in July and so much as familiar history But now George third had denounced all rebels in America as traitors. Punishment for treason was hanging. The names now so familiar to you from the several signatures on that declaration of independence. The names were kept secret for six month for each new the whole meaning of that magnificent last paragraph in which his signature pledged his life. His fortune. And his sacred honor. 56 men place their names beneath that pledge. 56 men knew when they signed. They were risking everything. They knew if they won this fight, the best they could expect would be years of hardship in a struggling nation. And if they lost They face a hangman throat. They signed a pledge. And here is the documented faith that gallon 56. Carter Braxton of Virginia, wealthy planter trader saw his ships swept from the Steve's to pay his debt. He lost his home and all of his properties and died in ragged. Thomas Lynch. Junior who signed that pledge, was a third generation rice grower, aristocrat large plantation owner after he signed his health failed. His wife, and he's set out for France to regain his failing health. Their ship never got to France was never heard from again. Thomas McKeen of Delaware were so Harris by the enemy He was forced to move his family five times in five months. Served in Congress without pay. Family and poverty and in hiding. Vandals looted the properties of Ellery and climber and Paul in Gwinnett, Walton and Hayward Rutledge in Middleton. Thomas Nelson Jr to Virginia raised $2 million on his own signature to provision our allies the French fleet. After the war, he personally paid back the loan wiped out his entire estate. He was never reimbursed by his government. In the final battle for Yorktown. He Nelson urged General Washington to fire on his Nelson's own home, which was occupied by Cornwall. It it was destroyed. Thomas Nelson Jr had pledged his life his fortune. Anticipate for an honor. The Hessians these the home of Francis Hopkinson of New Jersey. Francis Lewis had his home and everything destroyed his wife imprisoned. He died within a few months. Richard Stockton, who signed that declaration was captured mistreated. His health broken to the extent that he died at 51 is a stateless village. Thomas Heyward Jr was captured when Charleston fell. John Hart was driven from his wife bedside while she was dying. They're 13 Children fled in all directions for their lives. His fields and.
The Steve Deace Show
"carter braxton" Discussed on The Steve Deace Show
"State house that's now called independence hall in philadelphia. The best men from each of the colonies sat down together which was very fortunate. Our in our nation's history one of those rare occasions in the lives of men when we had greatness to spare these were men of means well educated twenty four lawyers and jurists. Nine were farmers owners of large plantations on june. eleven committee. Sat down to draw a declaration of independence where we're going to tell the british fatherland no more rule my redcoats below the dam ruthless foreign ruler stream of freedom was running shallow muddy and we were going to light a fuse to dynamite. That dan this pact. Has burke later put. It was a partnership between the living. And the dead and the yet unborn. There was no bigotry. There was no demagoguery in this group all had shared hardships. Jefferson finished draft of the document in seventeen days. Congress adopted it in july and so much familiar history but now king. George third had denounced all rebels in america as traitors punishment for treason was hanging the names now. So familiar to you from the several signatures on that declaration of independence. The names were kept secret for six months for each new. The full meaning of that magnificent last paragraph in which his signature pledged his life his fortune and who sacred honor fifty. Six men placed their names beneath that pledge. Fifty six men knew when they signed that they were risking everything they knew if they won this fight the best they could expect would be years of hardship and a struggling nation and if they lost they'd face a hangman's rope but they signed the pledge and here is the documented fate that gallant fifty-six carter braxton of virginia wealthy planter trader saw. His ships swept from the seas to pay his debts. He lost his home and all of his properties and died in rags. Thomas lynch junior who signed that pledge was up third generation rice grower aristocrat large plantation on her after he signed his health failed his wife and he's set out for france to regain his failing health. Their ship never got to. France was never heard from again. Thomas mckean of delaware so harassed by the enemy that he was forced to move his family five times. In five months he served in congress without pay. His family and poverty and in hiding vandals looted the properties of ellery and climber and hall gwinnett and walton and hayward rutledge and middleton thomas nelson. Junior virginia raised two million dollars on his own signature to provision our allies. The french fleet after the war. He personally paid back. The loans wiped out his entire estate and he was never reimbursed by his government in the final battle for yorktown. He nelson urged general washington to fire on his. Nelson's own home which was occupied by cornwallis. It was destroyed. Thomas nelson junior had pledged his life his fortune and his sacred honor. The heavens seized the home of francis hopkinson of new jersey francis. Lewis had his home and everything destroyed his wife imprisoned. She died within a few months. Richard stockton who signed that declaration was captured. Mistreated his health broken to the extent that he died at fifty one. His estate was pillaged. Thomas hayward junior was captured when charleston fell. John hart was driven from his wife's bedside while she was dying. Their thirteen children fled in all directions for their lives. There's fields and gristmill were laid waste for more than a year. He lived in forests and caves and returned home after the war to find his wife. Did his children gone his property's gone and he died a few weeks later of exhaustion. A broken heart lewis morris so his land destroyed his family scattered. Philip livingston died within a few months from the hardships of the war. John hancock history remembers best due to a quirk of fate than anything. He stood for that great sweeping signature attesting to his vanity towers over the others one of the wealthiest men in new england and yet he stood outside boston one terrible night of the war and he said burn boston though it makes hancock beggar if the public good requires it so he to lived up to the pledge of the fifty-six few were long to survive five were.
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Bitcoin baller brian. Kelly is diving into what could be a major headwind. For the crypto currency plus one software stock has seen a huge jump and option traders. Are betting the rally continues. We've got the trade. When fast money returns miss a moment of catch us anytime on the go. Follow the fast money. Podcast welcome back to pass a hidden. Headwind could put some pressure on the price of bitcoin. Jp morgan pointing out the pending expiration of the gray scale. Bitcoin trust lockup. That could send the crypto. Even lower be k. How much pressure do you think this could put on gb. if any. brian. Kelly lost so problematic. I mean he's too busy mining and taking too much bandwith or whatever uses and there's no connection for the phone for the good old send. A telegram became and let us know what you think about the gtc lockup expiration signals jetted out now be k. Jauregui funny so so. That story is catching some steam. And so people are talking about supply here so they get unlocked out of that trust. And maybe it's bitcoin to sell and you know obviously this thirty to forty thousand range. It's been really important over the last week or two or so. I know the guy dom like our friend carter. Braxton i think he said on this show if you break thirty there's an air pocket down to twenty. Twenty thousand was the breakout level in december. Twenty twenty all time high from december two thousand seventeen so sick logically. They'd be important. I don't know what the right now we're trying to double down on mining. Ozk back kind of why. I mean you're like an baller i became. What do you think goes me too. I mean that's my choice now. I'm not sure how much you guys heard of what i was saying. You have to unlock coming and has actually been a weight on bitcoin for the last couple of months and so after july seven. It's like twelve or so what you're going to see is there is actually not that much selling so we have a period of time here between now and july twelve where you could see a little bit a rally. And then i'd be worried about this big about sixteen thousand bitcoin coming off of lock in the middle of july. But after that you can see this kind of clear sailing for a bit. So as long as we are fed keeping the pedal to the metal and we have risk assets going higher. We just have to get through this little spike of bitcoin supply. And then i think we turn things around part of this no. Pk was jp. Morgan things fair value for bitcoin is between twenty five and thirty. Five thousand in the medium-term. Do you even think about bitcoin. In terms of fair value. Yeah it's it's one of those very difficult things like with any currency to do the model uses addresses. And we've talked about along the show before for me right now where i would start to think that bitcoin is getting is expensive. Is about fifty five thousand at about twenty nine thousand. It's cheap so that's kind of rain. And i'm looking at right now. You know because some people might take a look gb because it always or not always but it has historically traded at a premium to bitcoin. And now it's sort of the reverse. There's a discount to the underlying. And so they think the bigger the discount. The more shore money ashore. Bet it is. Could that apply in a situation still or not anymore. That over what what has been happening. In the reason why these unlocks are important because people have locked in a spread. So they're unwinding that trade and that's why you're seeing the pressure on bitcoin. If we see. Go back to a premium and i'm not necessarily expecting go back to a premium. Then that trade might come back on again. And what does that mean. That means people buy bitcoin or buying into the strict trust. Nav t has to go out and buy the bitcoin and that is a tailwind for the market so we really need to see that premium come back for have another tailwind for bitcoin. All right coming up options. Traders are.
CNBC's Fast Money
"carter braxton" Discussed on CNBC's Fast Money
"Along our address is basically flat or by the market is implying that we're going to have a decline of almost twenty percent and address growth. We haven't seen that type of differential since march of twenty twenty and generally win the when bitcoin gets that mis-priced it's the sign of that bottoming process. And so we look back to march of two thousand twenty when we had a massive divergence. That was one. Bitcoin was thirty five hundred and ward to sixty thousand. We're looking at the exact same type of situation here. Where looks like bitcoins. Trying to bottom the market is mispricing. What's going on underneath the the fundamentals underlying bitcoin. How much conviction. Bk do you have in this interpretation of your charts in that. Are you adding. I mean. I know you're probably pretty long but do you think that this is an opportunity i do i do. I personally added to our fund. This month because i think it's that big of an opportunity in the fund. We are long. And getting longer now. What i would like to see. Obviously bitcoins very momentum driven so now we need to see some price bottle through here and get that momentum going but to me. The story hasn't changed one bit right. We we're getting institutional adoption. we're getting as an inflationary hedge and regulatory wise. We're getting down regular it's not gonna be banned we're talking about bringing it into the fold. Those are all positive things for me and that to me is reflected in that mispricing. So beaks how important are the technicals. i mean obviously. You're looking at some metrics that you've used in the past to kind of guide. Your thought process for future performance carter. Braxton worth the is in the pantheon of technical analyst here you see in lower lows here man and that was a panic low of about thirty thousand a week or so ago we can half ago and he sees it breaks there that maybe you get back to that. Two thousand seventeen eighteen peak near twenty thousand could that technical setup plus maybe so some regulatory headlines with some teeth kind of draw that back down to those levels. Yeah i mean listen. I don't know if i have pretty high conviction that it was But bitcoin is a funny way of making you. Look silly. I listen if it got down the twenty thousand. Ib buying with both of my diamond hands for sure but technicals are important when it comes to bitcoin because it's difficult to value very much like the foreign currency markets technicals play a very big role. And that's why i mentioned. I wanna see the momentum follow on here right because momentum is kind of that first signal that the technicals are turning all right up next on cloud nine.
CNBC's Fast Money
Bitcoin Plunges 30% to $30,000 at One Point in Wild Session
"We start out. Today's crypto carnage. It was a gut check. Moments in the crypto currency market names. Bitcoin ether light coin. Even doj coin getting slammed. Today's thinking double digits shedding millions of dollars off the market caps and the selling was fast and furious. Bitcoin quickly plunging below thirty thousand dollars before bouncing. Well off that low. It is now down forty percent from its april. All time high so is today's crypto collapse. Just froth coming out of this trade much more pain. Had james mcdonald kickoff. We saw breakdown a bitcoin below the fifty thousand dollar level without a rebound studying the security or if we can call it a security this enthusiastic asset class. We've seen a dip in rip pattern every time. Bitcoins come down that they've come back and bought it We didn't see that at the may sixteenth breakdown below fifty thousand. That was a sign of things to come and then again on the sixteenth excuse me the twelfth and the sixteenth we saw a lack of buying support come in and that was kind of a clue that the sentiment had shifted and everybody knows what an asset swells to the level of did. It's gotta stop at some point. Think those were the clues looking for the next level. We think the twenty seven thousand level the next level carter braxton worth the current quarter start macro is on earlier this week saying you know. Drawdown of fifty five percent is garden variety when it comes to bitcoin nadine and i'm curious i mean a fifty five percent down his garden variety. We're pretty much still within that garden. Variety spectrum doesn't feel too good though now in fact we probably only have one or two clients who don't care about that kind of draw down and chew believers for the long haul in crypto versus almost all of our other clients who preferred us to trade it. And so just as we're talking about just now. We saw some breakdowns not just in bitcoin and below fifty thousand but also in the related stocks whether is gray scale or ms. You saw that breakdown. It was actually broke our short term trading range line. And that's when we knew we actually had to trim so it wasn't a surprise to us. Also this is happening.
CNBC's Fast Money
A Big Warning for Big Tech
"If you thought this week was tough for technology buckle up because a chart showing even more pain ahead for this sector turned mastercard or worth joins us now to break it all down Carter, what are you looking at? You Bet thanks. So I mean before we get to the charges important to say that equities are not annuities right? I mean give backs, dip selloffs corrections the they're a part of investing in. So it's always hard though to figure out how far the decline will go. Let's try to figure that out couple charts. One of five the first one you see here I thought we'd start with this. It's going back to the early nineteen nineties. It's a two panel. Chart on the top. You see the Nasdaq composite. Obviously, it's well above its dot com peak in two thousand. But what's really interesting ironic and telling the bottom panel, the Nasdaq even with all of this has not recouped its relative losses to the SNP. Since the dotcom peaks that bottom panel without circle I drunk, you still haven't made relative high, which just shows how treacherous is to buy into the top of a bubble in any event the here, and now let's go. To the next chart. So now we're looking at a chart of the Nasdaq, no judgments or annotations, and yet what you can see is a clear break in trend I've simply drawn the trend line draws itself, and what we know is we have broken trend. This is the first break of the well-defined trend line that's been in effect since the march low. So where to well take a look at the next, what we know, and this is now the percentage decline were. Down Eleven and a half percent for the Nasdaq index overall. But once you broken trend, what is your reference point of? Could it go down? Thirteen could fifty of course it good. So the next reference point look at the next chart is the January February peak from which the market broke out. We know the S. and P. of course has already gone all the way back to it's generally Feb repeat and so were the market to simply go back to the peak. Of the pre pandemic. Hi, final chart. What it would be is not an eleven and a half percent decline, which is what we've seen so far. But then we're looking at something in the order of about eighteen and so is that a possibility you bet it is. A pretty good testament to first loss. Best loss if something does crack hard, it's usually right to try to take some measures and. Even, as Jeff said, we are not oversold. Okay. So this is specifically Carter for the Nasdaq for the S. and P. Five hundred, which already said breached that pre pandemic level. Is it smoother sailing or because of the tech leadership, we're also GONNA see a decline that that mirrors this but may not be as deep. Well, that's right. So then it's a question about the markets construction we know top by stocks or twenty, five percent. We know that interestingly just before this crack, the top fifteen stocks as a wait just finally exceeded the dot com peak in ninety nine, and so the question is the Nasdaq composite down eleven percent the S. and P. Down only seven percent is there more to go. Well, if the parts composed the whole, the whole comprises the parts if the big parts have more to go the presumption is that the SNP as more nego- Carter to see you, we'll see you later on options action Carter Braxton Worthy Cornerstone Macro Jeff, males you agree with Carter in this call for a decline of eighteen and a half percent on the Nasdaq from the recent peak. Yeah I do and I think the levels he points out or a really clear in that you have the pre pandemic peak but then you also have the upward sloping two hundred day moving average if you look at the triple cues, for example so I think that would be a really natural resting point for this particular correction and I do worry about the overall market just given the weight of some of these names and because I think the rotation and the cyclicality isn't necessarily prime to take off, that may not carry the day. In terms of the broad market I, think in order for that rotation to happen, you need to see things like consumer confidence, the labor market continued to heal. You know we had this divergence between the labor market and how consumers were actually behaving because of this income replacement that is now gone. So I think the uncertainty there needs to heal a lot more before you can see that rotation and have that value cyclicality carry the market higher Steve In cars world in which this decline happens do your cyclical stocks do better than tech? So I would have agreed with Mr Mills a couple of weeks ago that all of them get pole down to General I at the same rate and velocity the general but the the issue that I'm I'm I'm looking at now is that I m seeing if you chart chemicals right now chemicals don't look so bad on their on their ETF while tech does so to the to answer your question chemicals and sickle goals will rally even with the S&P falling out of bed.
CNBC's Fast Money
Online spending on track to hit a new record this holiday season
"It's been a record record couple days for online shopping and just a few hours left in Cyber Monday. Retailer seemed poised for another big hall. Let's get to Courtney Reagan with the big numbers behind one of the biggest shopping days of the year. Hey Courtney Hey Melissa. So I'm here at one of Walmart's fulfilment campuses. This is actually one of six that is working to fulfill all of those online line orders. That are coming in on cyber Monday. Walmart does expect that today may end up being one of if not its biggest day of the year for those online orders and so far some of their bestsellers include the apple. Air Pods that INSTA- pot. Apparently not everybody has one of those yet the Ninja Air Fryer the video fifty five inch TV and the Nintendo switch but in total beyond just Walmart Dot Com. The National Retail Federation does expect the sixty nine million Americans will shop at some point today. you mentioned those records. Adobe is expecting this days sales to grow out twenty percent over last year to hit nine point four billion dollars. And that's on top of the records Kurds. That were already set online for Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday. But what's interesting. Is there still a lot of shopping. That's going to be left done tonight. Remember ever in the old days when you had to get to work to use the high speed internet on your desktop computers. That's what we saw pete sales much earlier in the day during work hours. Now it's much later at at night. The golden hours adobe expects will be between seven and eleven. PM Pacific Time. So that's ten PM here on the East Coast. Once the kids are in bed and all the chores are done. That's when they think the shopping will get started now. Of course we are getting some preliminary data for how things have been shaping up online edison trends at least analyzed. It's about three hundred thousand transactions from Thanksgiving and Black Friday. They say that Nordstrom has actually seeing the biggest increase in customer spending online compared compared to last year with a sixty percent jump Walmart close behind with fifty three percent in the Amazon with forty nine percent target however and J. C. Penney those spending online numbers from these transactions samples fell about twelve and fourteen percent respectively. We still have an awful lot of shopping and time left to go and we know we still have a decent season left even though it is six days at shorter. So be careful when you're ordering online and you're looking at the shipping dates just a little bio buyer irby wear for Meteo beco- view of all. Right thanks for the tip. Courtney Reagan What are you doing over there? He is your modem on the Fritz on this one of those people to coordinate when when you go to the work for the high speed Internet. I'm one of the. That's what you're doing is doing right now answering your question if you WanNa have a conversation about retail. I can do that as well very much. Still by eight track tape players hundred percent should say that retail looked the trades are interesting Cosco reports on December twelve. It's had a huge run but now valuations traits it thirty two times next year's numbers we've been both China Carter. Braxton worth through appears every Friday on the options action which would back this this Friday after being usurped this past week by the holiday he talked about this for the last six months. He's been correct. I think you've got to sell it into earnings target catching up the Walmart art finally on Valuation But Walmart at Twenty three times which is sort of the benchmark for everything in my opinion is just too expensive in this environment one thing. I don't know if we break out. His is buy online. Pick up in store which I think is a really a difference. It's a very big difference right and and you invariably by something else when you're there right so That's one interesting part. I think you know target sighted a number of other ones do. I think there's GonNa be retail winners here. We've seen some of the ones is that don't work right. I don't know if macy's can turn it around I think I'm not optimistic on that one. But I do think that I do think Nordstrom has a much better chance as a much better chance and even though the socks more expensive. I'd rather be in a Nordstrom macy's both of those stocks extreme streaming serenely high interest percent about. Yes we just got numbers Nordstrom and they were fine although if you look again they're they're they're full price versus their offer Akwa their sale price two very different stories perpetuating the story they get a little boost out of their New York flagship store adding some some gross margin. But when you look at target and Walmart I would go back to those. Because I think they've been such great stocks people own over the last twelve months but The relative victory that Delta in their online sales growth has been so extraordinary and so price. I stand in so much the part I think if people said when they said guess what targets not going to Amazon and that's exactly part of why the stock has done so well so hard for me to say that that's not in the price. I think the bar for both of those folks into this holiday season is very very high. Amazon has been targeted or Walmart. Well no it has. I mean listen you know I think at the end of the day import remember that Amazon while they get about fifty percent of the online sales growth that exists out. There you know. Online sales are still ten percent or less of the total five trillion earliest of US consumer sales. So there's plenty I think that's why Amazon is kind of stalled here. Some of these guys have made some really good progress. They made investments over the last couple of years. That took some time to kind in a bear out and they're starting to do that. I'll just say one name to keep an eye on home. Depot had that gap after earnings a couple of weeks ago and it kept going I think about nine and a half percent peak to trough decline started bounce last week a little bit look pretty good technically coming off of a trend line that thing turn lower keep an eye on that one because I just think that there's a lot of concentration in some of these mega. Ah Big big box names and these home improvement stocks that have really outperform but if you look at the X.. RT which is a broader look at all of retail it's ten percent of the year really underperforming the SNP. So I want to keep an eye on some of these other ones. That are very crowded and I think guys Costco the way it reacts to earnings guidance will be very important for the weed tells me