19 Burst results for "Carmen Reinhart"
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Damaged in so many places on the World Bank says the recovery could depend on the pace of the vaccine rollout. Chief economist there. Carmen Reinhart says a slow rollout could have the agency's growth estimate for this year, and Bloomberg Stephanie Flanders had a chance to speak with World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart. About what it will take to get the global economy back on track. I think that the the AM asked the World Bank. The multilateral banks have Really, if you look at the volume And the reach of their lending in terms of number of countries. 2020 was an unprecedented year. So you try to lend us much as you can into an emergency like this. At the World Bank. There's within that lending. There's great focus on Targeting social safety nets. Precisely because of the issue that this is a very, uh you know a crisis associate it with With, uh, you know, increasing inequality? Um There's also been, of course, the initiative of the G 22 the DS aside that that suspension initiative to allow countries toe a temporarily redirect funds that would have been used To repay that. To redirect them towards emergency spending. But even with new lending, even with the temporary debt, you know, suspension initiative. You still at the end have countries that Uh, Many of them were already frail. Okay. Prior to Cove. It and those fragilities have really been increased because it really if you look at many of the countries Very most dire need right now, where we've seen Per capita incomes fall more than 20% like Mbalula. Many of those countries We're very much hit by 2015 by declining commodity prices by the slowdown in China, so they were already in much weaker conditions. And you know there are there are indeed limits. To what? What new lending and these temporary dead initiatives can do. I think what we're going to move to is, you know, I'll be it. I think slowly, is mortgage reduction, more debt forgiveness. I think that's the next stage of the process. Just to be K. I want to get onto that, but you wanted to. You want to focus more on that. You think there's more more traction to be got through that framework ban through just through pushing on the str, or do you think we could do? You should do both. They're mutually exclusive. They are not mutually exclusive by any means. I think morph our firepower to the lending. Uh, is more of a short run. Response. Uh, the more you know, permanent reductions and restructurings off some of these countries that are in need. Some of those debts. That's more a medium term. It's seldom achieved quickly. Let me put it that way. Historically it that restructuring takes time. We hope it takes much less time now than it did in the past, because that's that's the whole set up for, you know, lost decades and so on. But by no means am I suggesting that the two things are mutually exclusive. Andre would work well as a xcom pleh mints. Do you think that could there still think it could happen in this year in the next 12 months or is that is that Look, Certainly so much hinges on the success of vaccines in terms of the potential for a recovery. I mean, you mentioned, you know, we have our forecast out there says Growth is about 4%. But look, you know if there is the dispersion around them. Is significant. You could see significantly higher growth of if everything goes very smoothly in terms of global distribution of vaccines, or you could see less than half of that. Uh, if if the process is bogged down and doesn't quite have these speedy outreach that is hopeful, so especially, you know, with Re noon surges and infections and new variants. I could see You know the political willingness and you know international cooperation that could lead to moving in the direction of another allocation for this year. Yes, and that was World Bank chief Economist Carmen Reinhart and coming up Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormack weighs in on politics, markets and the future of the Republican.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Of Bloomberg best. Well, it's no secret that economic growth has been hurt by the pandemic badly damaged in so many places. The World Bank says the recovery could depend on the pace of the vaccine. Roll out the chief economist there. Carmen Reinhart says a slow rollout could have the agency's growth estimate for this year. Bloomberg, Stephanie Flanders had a chance to speak with World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart about what it will take to get the global economy back on track. I think that the the I am asked the World Bank. The multilateral banks have Really, if you look at the volume And the reach of their lending in terms of number of countries. 2020 was an unprecedented year so you could try to lend us much as you can into an emergency like this. At the World Bank. There's within that lending. There's great focus on Targeting social safety nets. Precisely because of the issue that this is a very, uh you know a crisis associate it with We, uh you know, increasing inequality? Um There's also been, of course, the initiative of the G 22 the DS aside that that suspension initiative to allow countries toe a temporarily redirect funds that would have been used To repay that. To redirect them towards emergency spending. But even with new lending, even with the temporary that, you know, Suspension initiative, you still at the end have countries that Uh, Many of them were already frail. Okay prior to co bit, and those fragilities have really been increased because it really if you look at many of the countries that every most dire need right now where we've seen Capita incomes fall more than 20% like Angola. Many of those countries were very much hit in by 2015 by declining commodity prices. By the slowdown in China, so they were already in much weaker conditions. And you know there are there are indeed limits. To what? What? New lending and these temporary dead initiatives conduce you. I think what we're going to move to is, you know I'll be it. I think slowly, is mortgage reduction, more debt forgiveness. I think that's the next stage. Off the process. Just to be Kate. I want to get onto that, but you want it. You want to focus more on that? You think there's more more traction to be got through that framework ban through just through pushing on the str. Or do you think we could do? You should do both mutually exclusive. They are not mutually exclusive by any means. I think morph our firepower to the lending. Uh, is more of a short run. Response. Uh, the more you know, permanent reductions and restructurings off some of these countries that air in need, Uh, some of those debts that's more a medium term. Uh, it's seldom achieved quickly. Let me put it that way. Historically, it debt restructuring takes time. We hope it takes much less time now than it did in the past, because that's that's the whole set up for, you know, lost decades and so on, But but by no means am I suggesting that the two things are mutually exclusive. Andre would work well as a xcom placements. Do you think that could be? The str think it could happen in this year in the next 12 months or is that is that Look certainly so much. Hinges on the success of vaccines in terms of the potential for a recovery. I mean, you mentioned, you know, we have our forecasts out there said Growth is about 4%. But look, you know if there is this version around them. Is significant. You could see significantly higher growth if everything goes very smoothly in terms of global distribution of vaccine, so you could see less than half of that. Uh, if if the process is bogged down and doesn't quite have these speedy outreach that is hopeful, so especially, you know, with Renewed surges and infections and you variants I could see You know the political willingness and you know international cooperation that could lead to moving in the direction of another allocation for this year. Yes, and that was World Bank chief Economist Carmen Reinhart and coming up Bridgewater Associates CEO David McCormack weighs in on politics,.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on KTOK
"Call us a triple A to plan Rick My wife, Jeanne, who normally presents a segment here on the program Each week is off this week. This week is the element. Financial engines, semi annual financial planner retreat. We gather all 330 of our financial advisors this year. As you can imagine, virtually Gene is busy hosting a couple of those sessions. And so she's not able to be with us this week, and she'll be joining us again next week here on the program. But shift the conversation to investing since January. 1st, the S and P. 500 is up about 8%. The NASDAQ, which is filled with a bunch of tech stocks is up nearly 30% year to date. Exciting, isn't it? Well, don't get cocky tech stocks are now nearly 40% of the S and P 500. They didn't hit that high A percentage of the S and P Since 1999 when they were 37% of the index. When a sector hits a peak in the S and P 500, it usually means a crash soon to follow in that sector Tech crashed in 2000 Banks peaked in the S and P 500 in 2006. Right before the 2008 credit crisis. Energy stocks peaked in 08 and then crashed in the years after that, so Ah, yeah, the tech market is doing great people are beginning to wonder if it's going to stay great or not, In fact, the IMF the International Monetary Fund Is warning of a quote unquote sharp adjustment in the financial markets in coming months if the pandemic persists, and if economic recovery takes longer than expected to materialize, they said, Quote A disconnect persists between financial markets and the weak economic activity and uncertain outlook. They also say that the economic recovery if it's delayed, quote, investor optimism may wane unquote. I've been warning you about this for many, many months, and it's not because I'm trying to scare you. It's not because I'm trying to make predictions. I'm instead merely trying to prepare you so that you aren't shocked If the markets go in a direction other than direction, you want them to go. Jerry Schilling is another financial analyst. He's got a pretty good track record of predicting recessions. He's been predicting that we're going to have a 19 thirties type decline for the stock market. He is not alone. The Bee spoke investment group cites quote A classic sign of a coiling market. And Carmen Reinhart, the chief economist at the World Bank, says the pandemic is turning into a major economic crisis with very serious financial consequences, saying quote the scenario we are in Is not a sustainable one. What, Not everybody is so Barrish barons recently surveyed money managers and found 54% are bullish for the stock market over the next 12 months. Now, when I see a number of 54% you know what that pretty much tells me. It tells me that the markets are pretty evenly divided between bulls and bears. If you've only got 54% saying they're bullish. Well, that means you got 46% saying they're barrish. So, in other words, nobody knows what's going to happen next, and that means you need to be defending yourself Preparing yourself so that something bad happening isn't going to translate to devastation for your personal finances. If you're not sure if your portfolio is properly positioned to withstand whatever it is that may come You need to talk to a financial advisor. Do it as a preparatory steps. You can't wait until after the storm toe. Batten down the hatches and put up a plywood on your windows. You got to do it in advance. And one of the things you've gotta watch out for in periods like this is to avoid risky investments. I want to mention something that air called Tien's exchange traded notes. You've heard me talk often about chefs exchange traded funds while our Tien's pretty much the same thing as E. T s They're cousins, and they are dramatically different. And CNN is a derivative product. It's highly complex, very risky on a lot of them have imploded. In fact, The Wall Street Journal just posted a story earlier this week, citing the case of 38 year old Jesper Lanham of Milwaukee on event planner. He not only bought an exchange traded note, he shorted it. And when the trade suddenly surged in the other direction, he lost more than $100,000. Regulators halted trading in his E. T N and the note was eventually liquidated, he told The Wall Street Journal Quote. This was absolutely frightening for our family, unquote. He said The loss wiped out a significant chunk of the money that he was managing for both himself and his parents. The question, you know, makes me wonder who's running the show here. Why would someone 38 years old? I'm guessing not a huge amount of investment experience an event planner by training, not someone Educated in versed, holding credentials and designations and degrees and money management, managing money for himself and his parents taking the kind of risks he was taking. Was he aware of the risks associated with what he was doing? This is what can happen when you try to go it alone, Not knowing what you don't know. Let me explain it to you. Very simply, You know what An E T F is? An exchange traded fund is a basket of stocks or bonds, like a mutual fund. Very simple, very easy and TM looks like an E. T F, but it's not an E T F It has a similar basket of stocks or bonds, but they don't actually own the underlying assets. Instead, it's a debt instrument issued by a bank and there's a maturity date. Whatever the price of that fund is on that date. That's it. That's the price you get. They sell it. And making it even worse. Some of these exchange traded notes use leverage, meaning they borrow money to buy those assets. Others use inverse, meaning they do the opposite. In other words, If the stock market goes up, your investment goes down, or vice versa. And the fiend that this guy was buying did both. It was a three x inverse natural gas exchange traded note. In other words, he was making a play on what was going to happen to natural gas prices on the play. He was making basically said that if natural gas prices went up His investment would lose three times. More of whatever that game. Wass. In other words of gas prices went up 10% he would lose 30%. Was he fully cognizant of the risks he was taking with that bet? Did his parents know it? Well, the market is not a very popular market. It's down 70% from five years ago, you need to make sure you understand the investments in which you're engaging in. And if you're going to rely on family members or friends to help you manage your money or do it for you. Do they really know what they're doing? If you didn't know this person, this person wasn't your son or son in law. Would you have hired them if they were a complete stranger, and you said, Well, I'm thinking of interviewing a money manager. Tell me your credentials. Oh, I've never done this before. What's your occupation? Oh, I stage conferences and I host weddings. Really? Do you have any experience managing money for yourself or for others know Well, in that case, let me give you all my life savings. What could possibly go wrong with this? A lot, obviously. Let me shift Teo the negative implications of what can happen when things do go really wrong. We just released here it Edelman Financial engines, a brand new study for the 401 K marketplace for the institutional markets. The study is third in a Siri's that we're producing. This one is called tapping retirement assets. Early on, We collected data on behalf of some of the nation's largest 401 K plans. The first two that we did in the series was called Coben, 19 and Financial Well being, and the second one was closing the advice cap. In our newest survey, We discovered that millions of workers have withdrawn money or borrowed from. Therefore, one case 50% increase since April, 30% of workers increasing their debt they've had to reduce or deplete their emergency savings and now making it all worse..
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"To prematurely declared victory, whether it's in a presidential election or any of the others before, there's a consensus son who won that election. We're gonna add some context in a label to that post, saying there isn't a an official results on this election and directing people to the Voting Information Center, where we'll have the list of all the official results that have come in. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook CEO. I think someone anticipate some trouble coming in November. No matter who wins. A lot of focus will be on Mark Zuckerberg, Tom Kane in the next couple of months. A lot of positioning in the course of Google and I trusted issue with the attorney general going on Lily. That's breaking news. We'll have reports on that and real focused tonight on Bloomberg Technology. As well Right now. Claudia Som joins us. She's Washington Center for Equitable Growth there Director of macroeconomic policy and this is a really, really, really important conversation. If you're worried, I lump Claudia some in with Reiner. It's Carmen Reinhart and Vincent right now, With my essay, the summer on the pandemic depression and Claudia some with their new recession measurement really focused on some of these pandemic dynamics. Claudia's time. Do you agree with Rhinehart's that were on the edge of a pandemic depression? Yes, it is absolutely serious. The economic conditions we're facing right now. Well, K Claudia, you're allowed to have longer answer. So Simon Cancer, it's Friday were charred. You can give me a longer answer. But what's the difference between a recession and a depression? Well, at this point, I wouldn't worry so much about the words. I am absolutely frightened at the fact that relief has expired, particularly relieved that was going to the unemployed and to small businesses. It doesn't matter what we call it. We are seeing an income crisis We're seeing in action from Washington, D C and we can't afford to do this again in terms of me and it will be worse than, say, the great recession. We are seeing measures like unemployment that are flirting with levels that are in last seen in the Great Depression. We just We can't do this again. Claudia, you talk about an income problem that we're seeing across the board. And yet we've seen consumer spending. Continued to remain. It's strong. How do you reconcile this? Personal income in July. 5% of it was due to the extra $600 that was going to unemployed workers. I don't have to be a forecaster for more than a decade to know if you have that kind of a drop that has happened. In August that it is serious. It is serious for those families that have already been hit hard, and it is serious for the entire economy, like we're do not have enough Momenta MME to make up for this relief, expiring and Claudia. A lot of people would agree with you and have come on the show and disgusted and other people are saying, How do we know I mean, Michelle Meyer of Bank of America coming on earlier and saying it's just too soon to decide whether we're going to get this continued. Grind toward a better economy or weather is going to dip again if we don't get another fiscal around a fiscal support. Where you coming at this saying no, the evidence is in. We do need another round of fiscal support, Things will otherwise deteriorate. So I have seen no compelling argument about why we should not act Right now. The cost of doing too little are going to cost us for decades and we are seeing The house and have not split apart from each other. We are in track for a very serious rise in inequality, and that is to a detriment of the whole economy. We can't reach our potential if we have millions of families struggling. Plenty of some one thing we know for certain. Is that what you get elected in this country with unique populism of President Trump? Perhaps an exception is you move to the centre. What will be the effect? Of liberal economic and labour policy if vice president by must move to the center to be elected. What I'm afraid is that when we come back in January, regardless of who is in the White House and in Congress, we are going to have such a serious economic disaster to clean up that the center is going to look like something we can't even imagine today. Expand on that. What do you mean by that? Well, we're going to have a moment where we will need a jobs program. We're going to need to spend more money in January. Then we need to spend now in September. The cost of wait and see is just it's too high. Okay, this But Claudia, this is really important frame out the Republicans or number of billions. I get it. Maybe it's one trillion. Maybe it's two trillion Are you advocating a Biden response of three or four or $5 trillion? So I've been saying for months now that we should have a multi trillion dollar package. Frankly, I'd like to see $6 trillion go out again. I cannot imagine what is holding us back. The borrowing costs being able to service. The federal debt is not a problem right now. And if we don't go all in on this, we again we will have a massive amount of damage. I don't expect to get $6 trillion Right. Two trillion. What was in the Heroes Act feels to me like the absolute lower bound and frankly, I am so disappointed. I don't expect to see that either. Well, Claudia, When you talk about any equality, there's also inequality in age and people ages. 16 to 25 are looking at an unemployment rate of nearly 20% right now. What do you think is necessary to bring that down, given that so many of the jobs for that age cohort Tend to be on the entry level service providing jobs have gotten decimated. At the service sector right now is an absolute crisis. I know there's been a lot of talk about Weezie manufacturing coming back. We see construction in consumer durables these areas that have largely come back to where we were earlier in the year. If you look at the service sector, they are in an amazingly deep hole. Those are a lot of the entry level jobs. They're not uncertainly. Good jobs. I mean, we need to do better than January. But leading We are so far down the hole and this we saw the millennials in the great recession. They came out on the job market. They were slammed. It was not until early this year that they were making it back. We're destroying yet another generation of young adults. I can't do this. Tony of serious issues. Great to catch up with you off the Washington Center for Equitable Growth as we anticipated. Payrolls number's coming up in about 35 minutes on a lighter note, Let's talk about the wealth disparity between anchors shall weigh. Some came bringing up fish and chips at the Met. I could tell you the average price of fish and chips in the United Kingdom is about £3.50. I'm reliably informed that Tom, you can get fish and chips at the net for £17.50. It's going to be all of you out..
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"We're going to check in with Dave Wilson again. He's got a chart of the day. It does, indeed. So we'll get to that. You get a chance to talk to him too. Or did you have to jump? Right? No. We jumped right into Carmen Reinhart Little Cup a couple minutes. We did talk little bit at the top about the market's forgot we did with Dave. Yeah, but sorry. It seems like three hours ago for hours ago, an hour, Plus, all right. Before we get to that. Let's get Charlie fella. He's got update on trade A Charlie Well, hello. They're unhappy to say to you. Both The Dow, the S and P and NASDAQ continue to push higher stocks now the highest since June 10th on speculation Congress will seek additional stimulus to combat the economic effects of the pandemic. Also, data this morning showed US manufacturing neared expansion. Here's where we stand. S and P 500 index up by 17 again of 6/10 of 1% now up 167 up by 7/10 of 1%. NASDAQ is up 79. That is a game of 8/10 of 1% in the year of a column on the Bloomberg NASDAQ, now up by 13% 10 year yield 100.71%. Gold is off 8/10 of 1%. 17. 69 the ounce. West Texas Intermediate crude down 1.4% $40.17 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says the Trump Administration is discussing another stimulus package with lawmakers that could be passed in July. Latest effort to revive the US economy amid the Corona virus pandemic. He made the remark moments ago during an interview with David Rubenstein of the Bloomberg Invest Global Virtual event. You heard it live right here on Bloomberg Radio. It's something we're very seriously considering the president has been clear. That we put a lot of money into the economy. We had an unprecedented response on a bipartisan basis and in the last carriage Hill, and there's no question that money is having a major impact on the economy. Kessler is pitching it Cyber truck plant project to officials in Travis County, Texas, saying the factory will bring 5000 so called middle skilled jobs. Carmaker says it will create positions of a solid wages without requiring substantial levels of higher education. Tesla's shares they're all began up by another 50000.5% and a headline from the Bloomberg Professional Service the jewels consumer fraud case by Arizona. Has been allowed by Judge to proceed again. Recapping equities higher here 27 minutes to go out of the clothes. SNP up 18 up 6/10 of 1%. I'm Charlie fellow, That is a Bloomberg business Flash. Right, Charlie. Thanks so much. You are listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek right here on Bloomberg Radio..
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Invest Like the Best
"That we're seeing today starting with ensuring safety inside of a business. How do you think about that in the environment of Corona virus? Do think this goes to that. Are you trying to actively traded invest during this or not because the beginning of a bear market is very different than the individual market from an instinct perspective since the beginning of the market but some will ever be doing the same exercise but it is good exercise? You start with balance sheets have a bias towards companies that you can value on gaps price to earnings the new quantity test that I think probably every investment firm in the world is doing and I'm fascinated to see what it's going to be called not the Altman Z. Score out the debt ratio interest coverage. It is days of solvency with zero revenue. That is the equation. That is being run everywhere. I don't know that that equation had actually ever been run. And it goes to that point about investing. The outcomes are always very wide. We've been through a lot of bear. Markets a lot of recessions but no one had run analysis of zero revenue yet. Daddy's the analysis that every investment firm is writing. I would imagine just about every company because you want to have a standardized metric. Well how many companies did exist forever and the answer is not even if you got one hundred billion dollars in cash no debt if you have zero revenue forever even if you ultimately get down to just one employee you will eventually run out of cash with no revenue if you have expense. Days of liquidity was zero revenue has been the acid liquidity tests that I think a lot of investors have been working through and then from a broader perspective. I think a couple of insights my dad as bakruptcy attorney seven talked about bankruptcy. Literally as long as you remember. And everybody's very focused on covenants and I think that that maybe a little bit of a mistake because I think lesson number one is that covenants. Don't really matter. Cash dominates covenants. The debt holders actually don't want to put companies into bankruptcy particularly two times like so what really matters is cash on hand liquidity. And then you can extend that to the revolver and that is the only place where covenants dubout covenants on revolvers. Really really matter but I do think this bear market has happened with incredible speed. And I think we're through that I face in now. I think we're different phase of investing. I say as everybody I've checklist for bear markets. And things that I think about when somebody I really believe in bear markets in the same way that all companies are gonNA MISS. All companies are going to guide down even safest companies. Everything gets shot. Everything gets soaked more defensive names with great balance sheets they just get shot last bear markets. They work on a fight. Vote principle not a life principle I companies to be sold by the market are the first ones to be bought. And that's why I think how you invested. Bear market is very different. Now we're name treacherous part of the bear market. All these actions have been taken. The market has kind of sorted itself out. Names that are Kinda the tip of the spear from the Corona virus have been really heard names that are gonNA benefit from. It have helped good balance sheets bad balance sheets. All of that sorting has been done. And what's GONNA lead the market out of this recession? And what can a lead great companies for the next five to seven? Years aren't actually the safe companies with great balance sheets. One thing that really helped me and dine is management portfolio and add some large positions and relatively illiquid names that had a high degree of financial leverage and they got absolutely destroyed at the beginning of the bear. Marsha I was getting redeemed redeemed daily. And what shows to fund those redemptions with? I've done the exercise that I described on the balance sheet or not the days of revenue but calm through covenants on the revolvers got myself very comfortable to quantity where they can take. Cac DOWN TO. What a disaster scenario bike convince myself that these companies with bad balance sheets were going to be able to make it through even the worst in there Carmen Reinhart book and so I decided. Hey I am going to fund these receptions with the safer more liquid name sold those which actively increase the weighting of these more aggressive names and that really saved me because people talk a lot about market internals being on checklist for bear markets and one that basically boils down to is the aggressive name start to outperform the defensive teams and that happens pushing really before the market so long before the market bottomed I was beginning to generate much more positive alpha. And then your portfolio's kind of ready to really benefit from the recovery which will inevitably come as hard as it is to imagine and go back to. What were the best stocks? Coming out of June of two thousand nine now flicks booking dot com to beauty. Domino's pizza domino's was named it was incredibly Everton. Come out of a P and huge amount of debt and the stock really been sold hard so do we are getting close to the phase Mrs again. Only if you are an Alpha driven investor. That's a more comfortable phase. Feels really good at the beginning to okay. My portfolio is safe okay. I've done quitting analysis if you want to generate Alpha in the later stages of a bear market and particularly in a recovery. You now do need to begin taking some risks. That are obvious. We're past that first age of the bear market where you get paid for doing obvious thing. I'd love to talk about some very specific areas that I know you pay close attention to one that I was reading about that fist been so interested in his his software. So software businesses have been the handed down from on high perfect business model insanely high gross margins. Incredible Revenue Growth Asset Light. I mean just. You can't draw. Businesses better than sort of the index of public software companies and as a result they've traded at incredible multiples of their sales in a way that make any value investor cringe. I'm curious if and in what way your view of software companies has changed or evolved in this short kind of four-week correction dog for is something that I have been thinking a lot about and I see the conclusion I've come to. It's just there is no such thing as truly recurring revenue. Some revenue is just more occurring than others. A lot of people in baselining off what happened to know and I think that is dangerous because in software was seven to ten percent of it. Spend and today. It's roughly thirty percent excluding spending on the big cloud hyper scale infrastructures and service. Companies like Azure Amazon web services and Google. Gcp If you put those.
Apple warns on revenue guidance due to production delays in China because of coronavirus
"Apple has let it be known. It's not going to make its earnings numbers. This quarter. Because it's mostly china-based supply chain has been slower to bounce back than the company had been guessing. Nintendo is worried as well. Nissan and Hyundai have closed down entire car plants. Because they can't get the parts they need from China. And the longer this goes the more these shortages become a big deal which gets us and marketplace's Scott Tong to the phrase that is on a whole lot of people's lips supply shock every day. Four million smartphones get sold somewhere in the world half a million. Tv's changed hands. So what happens if the supply of saw for for a long enough time economists? Carmen reinhart teaches at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. The way supply shocks work is they have a negative effect on quantity and a positive effect on price. The most notorious of the supply shocks of course was the oil shock. Goes the seventies the oil embargo against the US quadruple? Desperate and fuelled hyper inflation now. Hardly anyone expects that kind of impact at least for now but cornell economist. Issoire things price tags could go up for certain products namely Electron IX cell phones and other wireless devices as well as TVs computers. Those sorts of things that are almost certainly going to be affected if the epidemic last into the spring there could be a longer term supply shock multinational firms could revamp their supply chains away from China which could raise costs and prices for all kinds of things. Agathe Demery forecaster at the economist. Intelligence unit is watching closely. We don't see any signs at the moment that Western companies are going to go out of China that being said if the outbreak is not contained by end March it will be much more difficult to address for global companies. Demery is monitoring ships leaving Chinese ports. Right now she says some are just ten percent full. I'm Scott Tong for
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Newsradio 970 WFLA
"Boring Scott says he will remain impartial throughout the process Clifford Williams of Jacksonville says he relied on faith during more than four decades behind bars including five years on Florida's death row Williams who's now seventy seven is giving god the credit for his release from prison after state prosecutors found he and his nephew were wrongly convicted of the nineteen seventy six Jacksonville murder of a woman and the attempted murder of her girlfriend Williams was set free last year and Wednesday a house subcommittee approved a bill giving Williams two point one million dollars it took for three years for a day it but thank god we live in because a lot of people that I have been on the phone Williams claim for the restitution was sponsored by state representative Kimberly Daniels it cleared the house civil justice subcommittee with unanimous support it's five oh five eight news radio WFLA this is a Bloomberg money minute fourth quarter earnings season takes to the skies today American Airlines southwest and jet blue or expected to check in with their results before the opening Intel in the trade report later we get a glimpse into the economic future this morning is the conference board updates its index of leading economic indicators economists surveyed by Bloomberg C. a modest decline for December Harvard economics professor Carmen Reinhart says the economy is in a sweet spot right now growth is fairly could not you know exceptional inflation remains pretty serve do also today the labor department has its weekly tally of first time jobless benefit claims Freddie Mac reports on mortgage rates and we'll see Bloomberg's weekly consumer comfort index stocks are coming off a mix the higher session worries return than a respiratory virus originating in China would dent the world economy Larry Kaski Bloomberg radio.
Decade in Review: The Economy
"Greg is the chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. He's been covering the US economy not just for the past decade. But for the past past thirty years so greg let's go back in time. What did economists think would happen at the start of the decade when we were coming into the fall of two thousand and nine? We just come off the worst recession since the Great Depression and a lot of economists thought that Well we're going to have a recovery now and it's GonNa look like a lot of other recovery's that we've had so he thought interest rates. Is there close to zero. Now they're gonNA start rising out. Eventually they'll get to four percent. Unemployment was pretty high up around ten percent. Eventually it's going to get down to around five percent and it kind of makes sense because that's more or less what interest rates and unemployment had done in previous recovery's but they were wrong Interest rates stay low. They stay little year after that and you have to that and the year after that a it took a long time for them to start rising and even ten years later they had gotten nowhere near the four percent level. Everybody thought was normal. They're still oh well. Below two percent and run employment it kept dropping and dropping and dropping until ten years later was down to three and a half percent a level that nobody anticipated we could achieve so okay. They've gotten it wrong. Let's walk through the possible theories. The first one that you talked about is this debt hangover theory. What's out about so one of the theories about why things are so rough was became known as a hangover theory which was associated with Ken Rogoff at Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart also at Harvard and they wrote notable called this time is different eight centuries of financial folly and they basically carefully gone through every country that had ever gone through financial crisis to figure out? Well what can we learn about that. And they settled recovery from crisis or very very slow and the reason why is that businesses and households and banks of too much debt. That's why we had a crisis and so they're busy trying to pay down on that day. They're not borrowing new funds and making new investments. And also everybody's always afraid there's another crisis right around the corner so they wanNA keep all their money safe things like bank deposits deposits and treasury bonds. And so this kind of like aversion to taking any chances taking any risk keeps investment low growth low and because growth is low inflation is low and interest streets are low so that was a pretty popular for quite a few years about why things were mad and remember of course. It wasn't only the United States that had a crisis. The whole world had a financial crisis and then barely two years later. The euro-zone had a huge crisis where Greece defaulted and a bunch of other countries. Almost defaulted so that sounds like a pretty good explanation does is it. Work debt hangover theory certainly worked for several years. But you know after five or six years in the crisis was fading into the past and things were still looking Kinda lousy and folks were looking around saying You know maybe there's more to it than just the fact that we'd had a crisis maybe there's something more structural going on holding back the economy. Okay something more structure all something like secular stagnation right so around two thousand and thirteen Larry Summers who used to be the treasury secretary under Bill Clinton and was advisor Brock. Mama now now. He's at Harvard University. He comes out with a new theory for why things are so weak and he calls it secular stagnation and he gets a phrase from an economist. Also Harvard from back in the nineteen thirties. who used it to describe? Things were so weak during the Great Depression and summer says well look. There's a lot of structural things going on the economy that are holding growth interest rates low. Hello Demographics for example. Everybody around the world seems to be getting older and populations growing more slowly. Aging populations don't boroughs much money and businesses if they have fewer consumers there's and fewer workers they don't invest as much and he also said the nature of investments changed companies just don't invest as much of their profits as they used to they spend it on improving things like their software were algorithms. And so if you have a world where businesses and individuals. Just don't WanNa borough very much. That'll kind of Lee subdued growth in very low interest rates and that was a theory that seemed to work reasonably well for For quite a while not just the United States funding bunch of other countries as well like you know like Japan. Why doesn't secular organization explain how they got the decade all wrong at least in the United States while the secular tag nation argument Explains a few things like low interest rates but secular stagnation is also really gloomy. Let me theory like in the nineteen thirties. Unemployment State High Double Digits for quite a few years and that's clearly not happening in the United States. unemployment has continued to fall fairly steadily below four percent and the stock. Market's had terrific decade. I mean it's been a record bull market so maybe it's really pessimistic. Theory like secular stagnation isn't the whole story right. So unimplemented fifty year low. How could that possibly give us a better sense of what might have led to these wrong predictions for the past decade so when the unimplemented can fall as low as this so in the old days they used to unemployment couldn't fallen below five percent? Because then you would have bottlenecks in inflation but here we are at the three and a half percent unemployment rate and inflation remains extremely low. So that tells us something that economy just had a lot more spare resources a lot more people willing and able to work than we realized. And if that's the case then for the whole last decky economy has been operating well below its potential. There's a great big sort of gap between what the economy's been doing what it could do. And all that extra slack basically means that we have a lot of catching up to do and also means that there isn't a lot of pressure on inflation because there's a a lot of unused capacity sitting on the sidelines. A lot of workers who really WanNa work so if you spend a if you have a long way to catch up and you take a long time doing it. Then it's no surprise that inflation is low and it's no surprise that interest rates are low and also no surprise that the expansion has lasted a full decade. Somebody that could explain plane why we had this slow growth and low interest rates. It's not something that's fundamentally changed. The nature of the economy is just taking longer for things to get back to normal says Allah on it. Has the mystery been solved. You know the interesting thing is is that there is still a lively debate among economists about which of these theories is correct. Is it the debt hanger for theory. Is that the secular stagnation theory. Is that the just taking a long time to get back to normal theory. Is it a combination of all these things and a few things that we haven't even thought of and I guess the interesting thing is that we may have to wait another decade. Exactly why things behave the way they did in the last decade. Why should we care that? Economists got the decade wrong. Why should we care that? They couldn't accurately predict what the federal funds rate would be in the next year and the next two years three years a lot of our policies like but how high taxes should be how much we should we spend. How serious a problem is the budget deficit? How should interest rates go? They're all based around our suctions. About how fast the economy can grow at. How low unemployment should be able to go? So economists. Get all these things wrong than you have to rethink. What are the appropriate policies? So a lot of folks have been saying well. We're in big trouble because our debts. That's her so high but interest rates are so low in the private sector is not worried about government debts. Maybe we shouldn't worry either. And maybe it's okay to have larger deficits for longer than we used nice to think that's where the Federal Reserve when realizes that inflation has stayed for this long. There isn't as strong case raising interest rates as much so revisiting the last decade. Trying to figure out where you went wrong. It's pretty important for determining what the road policies are going forward.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on FT Alphachat
"Economics and finance at Brown University. Branding really I at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington DC, ultimately my conversation with feeder gas bar came down to debt. What is the right kind? How much of it is enough. And are we smarter about it than we used to be? He is deep in these conversations. I mentioned LeVine short. He said a front. I mentioned Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff. He said he wrote the Portuguese introduction to their book. But we started with a single sentence old from his report the quality of fiscal spending has deteriorated that is there is good spending. And there is bad spent. Here's feeder. One of the examples is that public investment has been on a declining trend in investing Connie's, one of the facts that have been documented for a long time in fiscal monitors. He's dead countries that have strong governess in terms of public finances. They are able to protect public investment and by doing so they improve the contribution that fiscal policy makes sustainable growth. So when you say public investment are we talking about roads and bridges? What is how do we define that category? Publicans? So normally, I emphasized public investment in infrastructure that includes road and bridges, but in today's world, it also includes investment in networks but in abroad context when we discuss for example, the sustainable development goals twenty thirty. We speak about investing in people and infrastructure human capital, extremely important. And so what governments provide in areas as health and education scrupulous, well, so high quality fiscal spending is on broadband networks roads, train lines secondary education or primary kitchen. What's poor-quality fiscal spending for example, poorly targeted subsidies wasteful subsidies, for example, on energy transfer payments that benefit the most favored extracts of the population subsidies that reflect rent seeking and much shells. So I wanna make this distinction. And the reason that line jumped out at me is that we have a very unproductive conversation the United States, and I would say the discussion in Germany's comparably unproductive where we. We don't do a great job of distinguishing between productive spending high quality spending and poor quality spending. So how do you draw that distinction for countries like the United States which ended up spending a ton of money on subsidies for favored classes, and no money on infrastructure and countries like Germany, which in a different way ends up with a similar outcome. Which is that they're so focused on primary surpluses that they don't spend on infrastructure. How do you change that conversation from one of we can't spend too one of you can't spend which have spent well, let me start with the German example when you focus on Germany. You do see that in Germany that has been a great success in terms of rebalancing the budget and bringing the public debt to GDP ratio down quickly. So the has been a very strong. And facilities on putting one's own fiscal house in order, but arguably you could say well looking at the long run prospects of the German economy. It's very important that Germany continues to be very competitive economy and improves its growth prospects. And from that viewpoint given in particular, the incredibly low level of interest rates. That now prevail in Germany with the full yield curve up to ten years below zero. You could say that there is very productive investment in infrastructure roads, railways, but also inet works. Any particular information networks to invest in the future? Growth and the future competitiveness of Germany, taking a long-term view is I believe the way to frame that debate in Germany, but this has led to a situation overall in Europe where there's been such a focus on minimizing primary deficits, and even creating primary surpluses, that's where all the political energy in Europe has gone for the last arguably ten years that you have a situation where public investment all over the continent has plummeted which has now having real foreign policy consequences..
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on KQED Radio
"I'm David Brancaccio in New York, the us federal budget deficit is widening. It's currently seven hundred seventy nine billion dollars in it might tickle a trillion dollars next year, which is prompted new series of thought exercises from the Congressional Budget Office one hundred twenty one ways to shrink the deficit. Marketplace's Renata sago says Moore Congressional Budget Office is the nation's official accountant and right now it's saying hold up. There's more money being spent then we're bringing in through taxes and. Other revenue here are waste of balance. The budget over the next ten years before things get really bad like throw a tax on carbon. The CBO says that could increase federal revenue by about one trillion dollars or put a cap on Medicare spending which could save the government eight hundred five billion through two thousand twenty eight this gives policymakers a starting point. That's mark. Gold wine with the committee for a responsible federal budget. He says the CBS ideas like taxing stock transactions and eliminating the head start program are considerations. But increasingly a lot of these options are getting out of date, you know, totally different tax code. Our health system is really different than it was just a decade ago on thanks for sure is that the one hundred twenty one ideas could inspire new proposals that would require even more number crunching about their long-term economic impact though iron out of sago for marketplace. Let's take the debt talk global a new report from the International Monetary Fund finds that all that borrowing. Individuals companies. Government has resulted in an all time planet wide record one hundred eighty four trillion dollars in debt for last year. Marketplace's Ben Bradford has details on that that comes to eighty six thousand dollars per person. According to the IMF, it's like saying everyone in the world owes one super luxury BMW's worth of debt that level of debt comes close to two and a half times global output. So he gives the institute of international finance so is tremendous amount. In in many ways is is kind of a dead weight for for global growth on the other hand. It's not as if that debt is evenly divided. Harvard. Economist Carmen Reinhart thinks the big global number isn't all that meaningful. She says you have to look at who's holding debt more than half of its in the US, China and Japan, those countries have problems with that. But it's not immediate ticking bomb that it is in countries that are tiny. But your debts are. More than they can handle immediately. The IMF says the biggest culprit is not government, but the private sector, which has tripled its level of indebtedness over the past seventy years. I'm Ben Bradford for marketplace. Markets are having a down day..
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on KCRW
"Servers endpoint protection. High availability and disaster recovery and data migration. Learn more at carbonite dot com. And by Kronos, HR payroll talent and timekeeping in one unified system. Learn more at kronoScom Cronos workforce innovation that works. I'm David Brancaccio in New York borrowing allows more immediate gratification, and we humans like that. A new report from the International Monetary Fund finds all that borrowing whether individuals companies governments has resulted in an all time planet wide record one hundred and eighty four trillion dollars in debt for last year. Marketplace's Ben Radford has details that comes to eighty six thousand dollars per person. According to the IMF, it's like saying everyone in the world owes one super-luxury BMW's worth of debt that level of debt. It comes close to two and a half times global output Sony gives the institute of international finance. So is a tremendous amount. In in many ways is is kind of a dead weight for for global growth on the other hand. It's not as if that debt is evenly divided. Harvard. Economist Carmen Reinhart thinks the big global number isn't all that meaningful. She says you have to look at who's holding debt more than half of its in the US, China and Japan, those countries have problems with that. But it's not immediate ticking bomb that it is in countries that are tiny. But there are more than they can handle immediately. The IMF says the biggest culprit is not government, but the private sector, which has tripled its level of indebtedness over the past seventy years. I'm Ben Bradford for marketplace. Shall we do the numbers.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Eight centuries of financial Autographed by both authors Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff a from Harvard nothing you said surprises me even a little bit I got into, Jackson Hole actually and and have it on my nights Abed stand because you. Know we I think that this is I think we have to remember this in some glad we're talking about it but let's. Let's let's talk a little bit about trade because, we just had Wilbur Ross talking about. This new deal with Mexico you have your echo research roundup out this week and you actually? Talk about trade? Troubles how much do trade commitments boost trade is the title of a paper, from the World Bank what's. That about so it's an interesting paper and maybe they name doesn't speak so much Ted the actual topic of it. What the authors look at here is how much trade policy uncertainty can. Drag on import tariffs and things like that and so it could drag on actual imports and exports and trade flows and so what they find is that if you have, this gap between tariff commitments and actual applied, tear. So people aren't doing exactly what they say you to see a significant downdraft and how much how much activity you so if you eliminate those entering tease you can push trade volumes up by one point eight percent across w._t._o. countries and for countries that have just newly joined the world trade organization could be a lot bigger something like sixteen percent increase in trade flows if you get rid of that uncertainty Okay let's get into the echo round of really quickly we only have a couple of minutes, to go the trade policy uncertainty that we talked about the World Bank research Jay Powell. Admiring Alan Greenspan has Wall Street talking, oh yes it does so we saw Jay Powell, at his Jackson Hole speech and just reference Alan Greenspan's work quite a lot quite. Admiringly so he he dropped his name like twelve times if you count if I. Know it's so quiet quiet a lot So and so yeah and so a lot of Wall Street. Analysts, kind of took from that, they say that you know pow by praising Greenspan's patients during. The nineties in Greenspan's willing to? Let, the economy. Run. Without going to play with great rate hikes is really sending. This. Dovish signal to market and so you saw a. Lot of people saying that but then a couple pushing back on. That you know Amir Sharieff. Sock Jen is saying, that you know. Really what palace praising is Greenspan's. Carefulness since, of his. Approach emphasized risk management yeah kind of wait and see rather than try to get too far ahead of the curve. Is that is that a fair yeah say it yeah and so both both schrief and then Goldman, Sachs group Inc Economists. Are. Saying you know this isn't necessarily dovish it's just very cautious Okay Well the thing I'm thinking I was going to pivot to is that that and we did get this paper from Powell's own research staff just before his speech that, said don't be complacent and, then but then you had you had talking about Greenspan. Alonso Lots of. Questions, Janus smiling answering them forest Bloomberg is a Federal Reserve report a thank you.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I think russia's one of those kind of out liar emerging market countries for a time it was actually benefiting from a strengthening ruble and lower inflation and lower interest rate that has changed somewhat i think if you step aside from currency and ablation and rape one basic indicator to keep your eye on for russia is the direction of oil prices you know they are producers and exporters of oil and as long as the price of oil remained buoyant russia could be an interesting play regular i think we should say that mark mobius along with now paul krugman and also carmen reinhart among a vast group now who are sort of thumbs down on emerging markets but i think like you they're saying you know be very discerning so oil is one component technology is a is a major component of some emerging markets does that also help lift some of those markets absolutely so i think technology is kind of a megatrend that kind of cuts across regions and countries in arbitrary benchmark definitions so i think emerging markets are really kind of coming up the curve on the technology front point thank you so much for joining us at a tidy leisure equity strategist at oppenheimer funds getting his thoughts on the latest set of a fed minutes look at what's been going on with the turkish fear of course which was after the routed in fell to all time lows before recovering in the section that on wednesday right that's a look at the prospects of the trading day in this part of the world one which is being dominated by some of the artists on those currency markets and dosa treasury yields which below three percent of the ten year and a dollar index on the way up with the bloomberg small business report i'm john tucker brought to you by dell small business mass challenge of boston found a startup accelerator is expanding globally since its first program in two thousand ten mass challenge has accelerated over fifteen hundred startups that have raised over three billion dollars in funding those startups have created two billion dollars in revenue and created eighty thousand jobs the nonprofit offers.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on KDOW
"Market drop either way you're going to be positioned with be now here's why rand paul talking about this debt see not just the interest rate is the debt the desk to kill her because you got to pay interest on the debt and the ten year treasury yield moves i that's i'm sorry the short term rates move i treasure you moved second and our debt we're real big trouble now let's think about it we have twenty one trillion dollars in debt we're paying interest to four hundred seventy five billion annual we don't have that money and because we don't have that money we have to go out and borrow it tell people will give you a yield of three point five percent also be up to four percents five percent we're not gonna make it before the crash take i get that right back down because housing is going to come to a halt already mortgage applications are coming to a halt because people can't afford those interest rates go up they just can't afford pay mortgage rates they just can't do it they can't pay higher interest rates on your wages aren't going up and we got interest rates going up every day this is crazy it's the depth killer nobody cares about cares so there is a point at which debt is too cumbersome and there's too much of it carmen reinhart of the university of maryland that's grandpa he's right about the debt then he says about the interest what happens when interest rates normalize and many are predicting they will as economic growth begins to pick up you're going to see an acceleration and interest rates and.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"I guess brendan hunt chief investment officer crane says well brennan just look at you different etf you've caught at least eight etf switch it really based on china and indeed from healthcare consumer technology right up to one belt one road etf's how these evolving how the constituency evolving with what's been going on if a tool we've read skate to where the puck is going which is incorporating ashares within the vast majority of our current etf just knowing that they're becoming into msci indices as well as getting exposure into china's bond market which is also been excluded from from from indices but likewise we'll be going into the album with barclays global aggregate beginning next year so we want to get in front of we want to provide exposure it's some of these great names really geared to some of the new china thematics areas that we think will lead china's economy going forward in the papers segment coming up later this hour i've got a story in the china daily about the president xi jinping making this big new push on ecological civilization so this cleanup in the economy do you see some individual opportunities there that you could share with us yeah i mean we we actually launched in partnership with msci china clean tech because we see trying to clean tech etf here in the united states because we we do see that there's awareness of the pollution issue the environmental issue based on china's rapid economic growth and but there's also there's a movement to trying to you solve that or reduce some of that some of that impacts so so there are we like the basket approach it's a little self serving and highly biased brian but we we don't see a company we see really a multitude of companies that can benefit from the movement of clean technology within china's day i want to go back to the original question about whether or not it's the right time to take on more risk because seems that the us china trade war maybe at a sort of neutral position here not a positive you've got higher rates higher dollar and higher oil prices all of which seemed to be constructive in nature certainly for for broadbased emerging markets i think you have to be a little bit more selective today bloomberg news that just a fantastic article based on comments from carmen reinhart the very prestigious economists around you some some em countries face.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"The eighty are suggested and that's how we saw some of the stocks associated with ten sound like nascar trade in johannesburg asian stocks do look set for a bounce today solid us economic data lifting us shares sending treasury yields right up there to three point one percent the dollar steadied the bloomberg dollar spot eleven sixty four dollar yen one ten thirty seven and the euro at a dollar eighteen so the euro bit weaker not a not a huge change for the dollaryen again on the tenure yield mentioned three point one zero percent at the moment three oh nine and the oil price seventy one dollars and fifty two cents a couple of other quick notes malaysia scrapped at six percent rate on the goods and services tax the rate will now be set at zero from june first that was promised by prime minister monitor mohammed and money managers from goldman sachs to ubs touting emerging markets but the asset class has a notable critic harvard professor carmen reinhart next time we get to market updates in fifteen minutes i'll give you all the reasons why she says stay away from em at the moment ball over to you all right is the trump kim summit in trouble or these bumps in the road and what's become a very public negotiation at baxter's global news at bloomberg nine sixty san francisco newsroom ed yeah that is a good question is the question isn't it paul on north korea has issued a statement saying it is not happy with the us comparing what it wants libya denuclearization deal bloomberg's bill ferry says it plays to kim's fears of regime security he says usually words come behind the scenes with the leader staying pretty silent there's been a ton of groundwork laid so far gestures of goodwill the release of the hostages some commitments to trying to sign a peace treaty this year but really all the dirty details are still kind of unknown and being worked out even as the white house and south korea and singapore and presumably north korea continue to keep keep up their plans for this summit on june twelfth and that appears to be the case president trump saying he's had no official word we haven't seen anything we haven't heard anything we will see what happens so all.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on The Jason Stapleton Program
"The cuts will stimulate enough growth to pay for them is a sheer fantasy shared by larry cudlow art laffer and very few others congress has also moved discretionary spending remove discretionary spending caps on domestic and defense spending that have been in place since two thousand eleven at the same time congress reinstalled earmarks that allow members to spend money on pet projects these two actual add an additional three hundred billion per year to the deficit that's an estimate of course but probably a probably a logo student loan defaults are now running at twenty percent per year and the volume of the student loans exceeding one point five trillion far more than the amount of junk mortgages in two thousand seven and with a much higher default rate covering these losses will add another two hundred billion per year to the federal deficits for for years to come so as you guys may or may not know the government has really positioned itself as the only lender for school debt they're in terms of the total amount of school debt the government owns most of it and if these guys are defaulting at twenty percent a year that means that those losses have to be eaten somewhere and it's going to be eaten by the federal government at the tune of two hundred billion dollars per year the us debt to gdp ratio is now a hundred and five percent this is well past the ninety percent quote danger threshold once in the danger threshold further borrowing axa actually causes growth to decline rather than acting as stimulus this is he's basing this off of a book ident call blue's called the tipping point written by guy kim kin row row cough and carmen reinhart finally says russia china iran turkey and other adversaries of the us are stockpiling thousands of tons of gold as a hedge against the inflation they expected the you as the us tries to print its way out of a non sustainable debt so for all of these reasons the dollar is headed for collapse.
"carmen reinhart" Discussed on KDOW
"This indicated now it's column monthly column is right is published about fifty countries is on the counsel for relations service serves on the phenomena comprise for battle of the new york for sure he will be joining us a this so it's always good to talk to doctor all the habs clearly one of the most prominent economists in the world for that yeah he is one of the most prominent economists and hoped he got it right that's the difference sierra about a lot of different economists say a lot of different things but he was the won and and carmen reinhart came out with this paper and i've since then i've been a fan of doctor rolled off and he will join us at the bottom of the hour looking at the market hundred sixty six down you think we go down farther do you think we're this is the beginning of something on a of a decline army we've been bring going back and forth twenty one twenty has been support and it's a pre twenty one ninety three has been the top friday we were twenty one sixty five or so in today we're twenty one forties six do think we're so in this range which one twenty one twenty twenty one night i think absolutely the range has been in place for the last couple of months who were going to definitely have a resolution of that within the next month or so to the upside or the downside well we've raced a little bit of cash in the portfolio said really trying to get our shopping list ready in terms of protecting our he it for a experience in this fall tiller d taken advantage of this fall tony as we still feel it was for him i'm play meant the caught him he's still doing very well and when you see these bouts of volatility for whatever reason having your shopping list ready of good quality dividend pain stocks or any type of investment they've research to have a time that's the key to make an solid investment spoke to buy the depth should buy when things go down except some polling is seldom when they go up i think in the next couple weeks get that opportunity so many of your been calling them to mo should up by should up skid and hasn't patients.