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AL Central Betting Tips The Bettors Box MLB Betting Podcast February 24, 2020
"Overpaying the Book Dot Com or your one stop shop for Sports Betting News and information by twenty twenty. Mlb betting guide is posted over their season. Win Total write ups all thirty Major League. Baseball teams got division futures got pennant futures got world series futures also player futures for the. Cy Young in both leagues the MVP in both leagues and also the Homerun King so tons of contact. If you're just a baseball fan or WANNA learn more about the game. The guide is very good for that. If you're involved in fantasy baseball guide will help for that that obviously here betting not just season win totals put on a game by game basis a lot of good information for all of that stuff out there so hoping to put that up on. Amazon here very early in the week this week. Hopefully that'll happen sometime today. It'd be happened Tuesday. Maybe happened Wednesday but very very proud of that guide. Put a lot of work a lot of time a lot of effort into it so far. I've got a lot of positive feedback with that guide so please head over to Bank of book Dot Com or download the PDF or you can look through the individual article pages also over at the website daily. Nhl for Parker Michael's Daily College basketball and NBA coverage. We've got soccer coverage golf coverage from James Mazzola with the Honda Classic. You're coming up this week. Nascar at out at Auto Club speedway all of a preview of that for you once we get to the middle of the week here our still covering UFC got another UFC this weekend. A lot of stuff going on over at Bang Book Dot Com. And we'll have a lot of stuff for the conference tournaments as well. I doing conference tournament preview for all thirty two conferences. Those start March third. Somebody would be doing that over at the website here. Throughout the month of March these really are by two busiest months of the year with the Guide and then all the college basketball stuff. We do for conference tournaments and March madness so lots of stuff going on over at the website. Please make sure you check it all out widely as you know this and every edition of Bloomberg radio presented by our friends over at D. SL sportsbook. Btv The number two hundred. Is that Promo Code. One hundred percent deposit match bonus for the sports book. One hundred percent deposit match bonus for the live casino at GSI. It's only game until you bet it. And they've got a lot of those player. Futures Season Win total stuff like that over there at GSI. In fact I found some better prices on some of the win. Totals over there at once again. Head on over there and use that. Btv Two hundred Promo Code now. I will be bringing back the Monday mailbox here pretty soon but I have had some questions for people that have signed up for the bailing list for the notes from these betters Fox segments. And you can do that by emailing me. And at the Book Dot Com. What event some questions about where to get Info and obviously I M. It'll be bending guide would be the first place. I would tell you to start but I get a lot of for places like Fan. Graphs replaced like pitcher list. Pitcher LISTED ALEX. Fast and the team over there. They do a phenomenal job looking at not just pitchers but also there's some contact with hitters as well. That's very very good work. Fantasy sites are very good here at this time of the year. Obviously a lot of fantasy drafts coming up here in the month of March. So they're doing a lot of deep dive studies on pitchers and position players. That's very good information for you. Baseball references is largely stabbed base. There's not a whole lot of articles with analysis over there but the numbers. If you can't find it a baseball reference are fan grabs. It's not out there so a lot of great information over at baseball reference. The athletic is worth a subscription price. I do a lot of great work. They've got some of the best beat writers in the business over there at the athletic covering stuff from a wide variety of angles. And also here. We talked about spring training betting on Wednesday. Last Wednesday's show with Brian Leonard. Those are boots on the ground for the athletic. They actually have the financial coffers. This send their people out to spring training and some cases some of these local papers beat writers. They don't have the money to do that. These days because print media. You'll kind of dying a slow death out there but a lot of the writers of the athletic. We'll be on the ground at spring training. That's going to find the bulk of your really good Info and finally baseball savant DOT COM. That's the whole of stat. Cast data out there on the Internet like patrol they'll be dot com does great work covering the stack gas stuff but baseball savant dot com in fact over on our. Bang Book Youtube page. If you sort search for you'll bang the book fan graphs or bang the baseball savant something like that. I've done a couple of screen casts videos in the past taking a look at how to use fan graphs for handicapping baseball. How TO USE BASEBALL SAVANT? For Handicapping Baseball. Those videos still very relevant some very good information on those two fifteen minute clips so head on over to our Bankbook Youtube page and check those out art with that. Let's go ahead and do the five and fly. I started this on last Thursday. Show with a look at the American League East. What this is is. I spent five minutes on all five teams within the division today. It's the AL central coming up here on Thursday. It'll be the American league west and then obviously after that we'll have the American league east will wind up the National League East. Excuse me the national league central and the L. West here subtle kind of take up to the middle of the month of March when I may bring back the better spock's fulltime on Thursdays maybe despite the fact that we've got the NC Double A. Tournament going on but in any event here today going to start with the AL central. I'm timing is trying to hold you about five minutes on every one of these teams here so here we go with a look at the Chicago White Sox and to me I look at the Chicago. White Sox here with the season win. Total of eighty four. And a half. I think that will be coming down first and foremost. I think this is a team. That has a very very wide range of outcomes and I've talked about this before that in a general sense those are the types of teams. I WANNA look to play to play on those teams that I think have a very wide range of outcomes. I think the white sox do but the problem is I think this is a team that could finish anywhere from seventy two or seventy. Three wins to about where their season win? Total is this season win total. That isn't under look for me. I haven't played it as of yet but I do think as spring training goes along here. I will wind up playing the white sox under with that negative sentiment about the Indians kind of waiting to see if maybe squeeze-out eighty five and eighty five and a half something like that on Chicago but are the reasons why this is such a high. Various team is because last year they had very high batting averages on balls in play. This is not a sustainable offensive. Game Plan to me. They had low power. Number's a low. On base percentage now in fairness they did attias money grindal and Edwin encarnacion two guys that hit for power and most importantly walk so this is a lineup that could wind up producing more runs without a really big power upgrade if that team batting average stays high but you want. Mancado last year ran the highest batting average eyeballs in place. It's Jose has two thousand and two when Hernandez was at four zero. Two on Cada was at four zero. Six Manny Ramirez. Back in two thousand was at four hundred about Rod. Karoo nineteen seventy seven at four hundred eight so Moncada had the highest batting average on balls in play since nineteen seventy seven. Now this is a guy that does make some pretty good contact quality. But it's not something that I would expect to continue here for this season so Moncada's off. Its numbers are going to fall. Then you've got Tim Anderson. Who last year had the fifth highest batting average on balls in play and batting average on balls in play is a statistic open to a lot of variants? So it is one of those ones that I do. Pay attention to because there's not a whole lot of annual year-over-year correlation with batting average on balls in play so the fact that Moncada an Anderson had two of the five highest babs in the last basically fifty years. I don't think that's a sustainable offense of profile. The white socks make a lot of opposite field. Contact they don't hit for a lot of power and this is one of those things that I do expect to regress a little bit now again. With some of their additions they could contribute in other offensive categories like the walk rate like the power potential four-grand Dole or Nacion. Obviously a full season of Louis Ro bear. You've got Eloy Jimenez if he's able to stay healthier and Jimenez very good opposite field power but I think the offense is a little bit iffy here and when you consider. The pitching staff is still littered with massive concerns. The offense a profile becomes that much more concerning for me. I don't know if this is the new Lucci Lido. I don't know if what we saw last year can translate here this year as well. Gee Lido dip pad his numbers. That twelve start stretch where he was absolutely incredible by and large against teams like the Indians who couldn't hit changeups last year. It gets teams like the royals and the Tigers and some of the other bad teams that he faced they're from mid may through early July. I'm not completely sold on Lucas. G Lido I think it'd be very good but I don't think he'll be as great as he was last season. I don't really love this. Fit FOR DALLAS TIKAL. The white sox are not a great defensive Infield so that's concerning to me I wouldn't count on Gio Gonzalez for anything. I'm not real keen on Reynaldo Lopez although I think he has a little bit higher of a ceiling than what he showed last season in the bullpen is very weak year. For the White Sox as well you look at Alex Calloway. Alex Kalemie one of the biggest regression candidates in baseball using a metric over at baseball savant. Called WOAH MINUS AXE Wilbur. Ex-wba is expected ova based on Exit Velocity Launch Angle batted ball direction. Things of that SORT COLUMN. Got Very lucky. Last year it terms of his Wolpe against so the say white sox bullpen that. I'm not very high on the offense is concerning to me and it's starting staff isn't very good now. If all of these things come together and if some other young players stay healthy like a Jimenez like a real bear if Kopech graduates to the major leagues in pitches better off Tommy. John they could be a pretty good team but for now. I think they're ceiling is in the mid eighties and their win. Totals eighty four and a half. I'm probably going to wind up with an Undergrad here on the Chicago. White Sox for the twenty twenty. Haven't done it yet. But I think this is one that is on my shortlist and one that eventually will become a play. Eighty six and a half. Is the season win? Total four. My Cleveland Indians here in the last few months have been very very disappointing for this team. They spent all winter long. Trying to find the right trade package. Four Francisco Indoor. They never wound up finding it. They traded away Corey Kluber which a lot of people call a salary dump. I don't believe that it was I. The Indians wanted Emmanuel class. Say and I think they should. Because he's a top five relief prospect here in Major League Baseball. I think the Indian saw exactly what I saw going into the twenty one thousand nine hundred with Corey Kluber. The command was on the way down. The control was on the way dowd is velocity was decreasing and he had a massive workload from twenty fourteen to twenty-eight thousand pitcher to throw more innings and Corey Kluber was Max Scherzer and we know. Max. Scherzer is just a freak of nature for the most part Corey. Kluber stayed extremely healthy. Last year's injury was a freak thing. It was a comebacker off the arm. That broke his old but still even with some downtime. That could end up helping him. And I'll talk about that more on Thursday when I get to the Texas Rangers. I traded from a position of strength. I think they got out from under kluber before the bottom could potentially really fall out so I don't think this was a salary dump but in the Court of public opinion it looked like once that shapes the narrative of the Indian seer. Coming into the season might clever already. Hurt torn meniscus had surgery. You'll be out for at least some of April. If not all of April Carlos Carrasco limping around with a hip strain. A HIP flexor strain. He seems like he's okay but obviously we don't know what we're going to get from RASCO coming off. The law season last year having leukemia coming back in September and throwing some relief innings but not really working as a starter at all. I don't know what we're going to get from him. But this is an Indian team that has two of the top twenty position players in baseball and two of the top twenty starting pitchers in baseball with Lynn Door. Jose Ramirez then obviously by clever and Shane Bieber on the pitching side. So this is a very top heavy team and you do wonder here how the supporting cast will play out now. I do think Fran mill raises a guy that could lead baseball at home runs. That would not shock me at all whatsoever. I think he's going to hit forty. Plus we'll see how many more than that he actually gets to Carlos Santana off a career year. You expect regression from him. A guy in his mid thirties now. He's not going to put up another career year probably not sustain that pace. But what do you get from the second base upgrade of Cesar Hernandez? What do you get from the outfield? Where you've got the second year of Oster Marcado? Who by the way? I'm not particularly high on. You've got jake powers that guy that hit every level of the minors Daniel Johnson's same thing hit every level of the minors during Luke blow punishes lefthanded pitching the added. Domingo's Santana Roberto Perez Walks. A lot hits for power elite defensive catcher unions have pieces here. The problem is they need a lot of things to go right. In order to contend for a playoff spot but going over eighty six and a half winds is not contending for a playoff spot. They can go over this total and still not be a playoff team get. You've got the concerns with clever with Carrasco Sheen Bieber. Last year elite strikeout-to-walk metrics but in the fourth percentile exit velocity fifth percentile in hard hit percentage and hard hit. Percentages percentage of batted balls. Hit at nine thousand five plus miles per hour so beeper graded very poorly in the contact metrics against as a guy with very good command. That's concerning to me. Is this a situation? Where bieber ones into worse luck with balls in play worst luck with the long ball. It's certainly a possibility now. I do think people do not realize how good errands Savelli could be. Elite Command High Spin rates. Very good in the percentiles exit velocity and hard hit percentage contact metrics the rotation will be good the bullpen will be solid. Assuming Brad hand is okay. You've got James Korean check and then Class-a who are too high upside relievers. The problem for the Indians is their margin for error is remarkably thin if any of those top. Four guys missed significant time. They won't overcome it like they did last season. This is a team that overachieved big time by the alternate standings metrics. So I do lean over eighty six and a half year a little bit but again. This team is just way too. Top heavy to fully consider from a season win total standpoint. How about the Detroit? Tigers fifty six and a half this win total for the Tigers. And I'M GONNA go ahead say it right up front here. This is the worst team in baseball. This team is worse than the Baltimore. Orioles this team is worse than the Seattle Mariners. This team is worse than the Miami. Marlins this is the worst team in baseball for THIS SEASON. So if anything. I'm going under the Season Win. Total here for the Tigers with that being said the second half for the Tigers could be a lot more fun than the first half in the minor leagues. You've got Casey Mayes you've got matt. Manning's they top twenty five top fifty. Mlb Prospect depending on where you look. You've got joey wins. You'VE GOT ALEX. Fado you've got some guys that are coming up through the system that will be pitching upgrades for this. Detroit Tiger. Steve. The problem is this. Offense is awful in capital letters. Awful now they did make some interesting moves coming into the season they brought in some one year rental guys in fact. We saw a lot of bad teams. Do this. The Tigers have done this. The marlins have done this. The giants have signed every platoon bat under the Sun. Bad teams are smart about this because with the uncertainty of what will happen with the next. Cba A lot of these teams probably won't be competitors in the free agent market and they really have no reason to be so what you do. Is You try to get these. Low risk. Lower cost one year rental guys and then spend them at the trade deadline to get some prospects so Detroit could be very active at the trade deadline here with guys like cj krone with guys like Jonathan Scope. Maybe they decided to move on from a guy like Matthew Boyd. The problem that I have is that krone and scope are two guys that derive just about all of their offense of value from hitting for power well chimerical parks the worst offense of ballparks in Major League Baseball. The outfield is expensive. The centerfield wall is very deep. The angles in left right center field are very deep. Because the outfield walls destroyed a complete. Slant it's not one of those ballparks. You've got little cut outs and stuff like that. The walls are slanted toward that deep center. Field to the Tigers. Offensive Ballpark is very low for a park factor standpoint. So this is a bad offense already. That doesn't score at home. The problem last year is that they didn't score on the road either. I believe they scored twelve or eighteen. More runs on the road something like that. They scored at home which is really problematic because scoring at home is very difficult to do. So guys like krone guys like scope it. They brought in four some extra power potential. Well they're not gonna hit for power at home. Maybe they hit for power on the road but they won't hit America Park so those guys were I think they're trade. Values are capped a little bit but in the second half the Tigers if they graduate. Some of these pitching guys could be good. I five under candidates maybe full game under candidates stuff like that. Now that boy do I mentioned could be traded here at the trade deadline in July. A three Oh one woven weighted on base average against in the first half eight three forty four Wilda against in the second half is strike percentage fell his whole run rate. Went up and in fact. This whole run numbers were worse at home which is concerning to be going into the next season here. He treated candidate. I don't know how good he'll be. And this tigers team does not heavy good bullpen. Either now there's one guy. I do like on this team and that Spencer turntable and last year Spencer Turnbull only had three wins of the thirty starts that he made but the stuff is pretty good. The whole run rates are okay if he lowers the walk rate he may be the only guy that I wind up backing here throughout the season with the Detroit Tigers. Even Matt Boyd is a guy that I'm probably going to look to stay away from what this tigers team again. In the second half could look a lot different as some of their minor league garments graduate up to the big leagues but all year long. This offense will be bad. This pitching staff will be pretty poor. The bullpen will be very bad. The only thing I could do with this team is look at the under fifty six and a half but again you're talking about a very low win total and I talked about that degrees of awful consideration that I have in my season. Wintel guide where there's not a whole lot of equity in betting on how bad at team will be. They're going to be bad. How bad will they be? Well I don't know. Do they? Completely quit in the second half did they quit. And September simulate that let's go to lower the projection for that team but I don't know that. So the Tigers I think will be the worst team in baseball under fifty six and a half but in the second half they could have some exciting young starters graduating to the big leagues. The Kansas City royals here. Sixty five and a half. Is Their season win? Total looks like another long ear there at Kauffman Stadium but I will say this. The lineup could be really fun for his solar elite contact metrics last season. I'm talking like ninety nine. Th percentile exit velocity and hard. Hit percentage hit. What forty eight forty nine home runs? Big Hole run spike for him. This looks sustainable to me. When you look at guys that may be heavy. Big Increase Year over year at home runs. Maybe it was just one of those things but a lot of times it's launch angle change like it was with KC Marseille off. Forty years on a diamondbacks. Maybe it's just elite contact quality and or his Solaire has that has that elite contact quality hits the ball violently hard makes quality contact when he makes contact. So that helps in the middle of this lineup and the top of this lineup is pretty good. Whitmer FIELD GETS ON BASE TON. They call him to hit wit for a reason because it feels like he has two hits and every game that he plays. That's a guy that I think could get a little bit more aggressive on the basepaths this season as well last year his stolen base numbers were down a little bit if he gets on base. If the same Ori- higher clip this season. I would expect him to run a little bit more simply with that'll bertone Monte coming off of some major injuries last year very exciting player extremely exciting player. He makes things happen. The problem is he doesn't get on base very much but he hits for a little bit of power steals a loaf bags pretty good shortstop as well very exciting player. A guy that could really help the ceiling for this Kansas City royals team for this season. Hundred dodgers coming off of a five year cal Franko from the phillies. He's bounced back candidate. Franco's a guy that a few years ago hit you know. Twenty five thirty home runs out of high. On base percentage guy but hits for a little bit of power. The Kansas City royals lineup could be pretty good. The Kansas City royals pitching staff will not be any jake. Judas allows taught to home runs. Did the same thing two years ago that he did last year. Not Good not good. Come in from Jake Julius. And He's primarily a to pitch pitcher which makes things a lot easier for the opposition. Brad Keller high grown bog. I saw strikeouts spike in the second half but also saw a drop in command. He's not a guy that's high on my list for this season and the other thing. That's not high on my list here. Is the royals get Salvador Perez? Back there is a massive enormous Canyon esque difference of opinion between what Kansas City royals fans think of Salvador Perez. And what everybody else thinks of Salvador Perez? He is a bad baseball player. Is Okay at throwing out runners. He's pretty good at throwing out runners. That's really the only attribute that he has hits for a little bit of power but he's a low on base percentage guy poor contact quality. Otherwise and he's been a bottom five catcher in framing runs over the last several seasons. Salvador Perez does not help this pitching staff. I WanNa make that very clear. I don't have anything against the guy. Personally he's just not a good baseball player and people think that he is for some reason and I don't know why he won't help this pitching staff. He will not steal strikes for these bad pitchers. And when you look at the splits going from a one to count to a two and one count there are substantial man if you can steal strikes. It goes a long way if you go from one to two a strike out or wanted to to to do. It is dramatically different. Even a first pitch strike from a first pitch ball is dramatically different. You want a guy that can frame for you. One guy that can steal those strikes seminar. Peres can't do it another thing. That worries me here about the royals is Mike. Metheny like Mathie goes from being the manager of the St Louis. Cardinals inheriting a very good team from Tony. Larussa to inheriting this royal steam and there are pieces to build around for Kansas City. Don't get me wrong. But the Fini goes from managing a proven commodity suet team and. I don't think Mike Metheny is a very good manager anyway so I don't like this fit. I don't like this pitching staff the best reliever Ian Kennedy. We'll be traded throughout the season. Because he's an impending free agent and it was actually pretty good as a closer last year so he will be traded. The offense could be fun but nothing else. We'll be fun about this. Royal Steam under sixty five and a half as the only way that I could look here. Not a bet for me. At this time they could be a team where we bet some overs on a game by game level throughout the course of the season by under their season went to the only way I could look because they're probably going to have some trade pieces here once they get to the month of July. Finally the Minnesota Twins Season Win total ninety two and a half for the reigning Ale Central Division champions. And I will tell you this. This is on my shortlist of win totals Tibet. I do like the over here with the twins. This line is too low but I'm waiting for spring training to play out because this is a team that does not have great depth. Romi starting pitching standpoint now. Last year we saw a big strikeout spike with West Johnson. Who was a college pitching coach? No pro bowl experience but comes over from the collegiate ranks noting colleges the czar velocity watts. Strikeouts once guys to throw harder and we saw that to a degree with some of these guys here for the twins in particular with their relievers. Jose burritos really fell off in the second. Half I worry about that. I worry about the philosophy decrease I worry about the command dropped but he did have more strikeouts in the second half so that provides a little bit of hope for me with Burritos they get kept on my Ada. He comes over from the dodgers some questions about that. I talked about that. In my preview. Where is a guy with some home road splits and now he goes from Chavez Ravine with an elite defense with the dodgers to target field where they pretty good defense with the twins but it is a league change? It isn't new environment now. You face the D. H. Every time through the lineup so I think my ceiling is capped a little bit here. I will still be very good. I don't think he'll be as great as people may be expecting. Jayco Torrisi. Is He for real? The strikeout rate up the walk rate down the whole run per fly ball percentage came down pretty good here for last year. Is that a guy that West Johnson. Maybe just tapped into and found some extra potential. I definitely is a possibility there with odor easy. But I don't WanNa get from homer Bailey. I don't know where to begin from richhill and this is a team that does not run deep. Pass the major league starting group so that does worry me with Minnesota on the pitching side starting pitching side on the bullpen side. I think this is a unit in line for some modest regression. I still think they'll be in the top half of the American league. I don't think there'll be a top. Three bullpen like they were last year. Taylor Rogers. For example thirty two point four percent strikeout percentage but only ten nine percent swinging strike rate now. The League average for starting pitchers was ten point. One percent from swinging strike percentage standpoint. The League average for relievers last year. Eleven point eight percent. It is very hard to carry an elite strikeout rate with a below. Average strike percentage. So that's what Taylor. Rogers is up against here last year. Closer and multi inning guy for the Minnesota twins. But I do think a guy like Tyler Duffy who ran a fifteen point percent strikeout rate. Probably going to be a little bit better. He can still carry his elite K. percentage overall this bullpen will be good. I don't dig. It will be as great as it was last season. Okay so I don't like the pitching staff but why do I like the twins over? This has a chance to be the best offense in the American League and second best offense to the Los Angeles dodgers. This is a team that makes elite contact quality but Gilson. Oh was top five. Nelson Cruz is always top. Five Josh Donaldson was top. Five Bits Garver was in the top. Fifteen top twenty this team. That makes a lot of high quality contact. They make a lot of barrel. Baseball's what barrels mean is that is. He batted ball with a high exit velocity and optimize launch angle and he barreled ball has an expected batting average of five hundred and an expected. Slugging percentage of one point five zero zero so more often than not barrel balls are either really hard. Hit singles doubles triples or home runs. Minnesota makes a lot of barrel contact. This is going to be an elite offense because they hit the ball extremely hard I think. Miguel snow could be an MVP candidate. I think he's eight homerun. King candidate Permi- researching an article over at Bang Book Dot Com. We know Nelson Cruz. Hits the ball hard and just does it. Age Garver hits the ball. Hard Josh Donaldson Hits. The ball extremely hard. They're going to make a lot of positive. Contact this season. This will be a top five offense and baseball. I think it could very well be the best offense in the American league like I said. Probably second to the Los Angeles dodgers and maybe potentially could be I. If the dodgers hadn't gotten mookie betts that is how high the ceiling is for this Minnesota. Twins offense so they are over ninety two and a half consideration for a best offense in the division and just a lot of things to like about the offense site for this team and I think with West Johnson. The pitching staff could be a little bit better here as well arts twenty five minutes and ten seconds there on the Central Division in my five and fly segment. Not Too bad there with that. We take a look at some spring training injuries here to wrap up the box. We'll talk college basketball with. Kyle Hunter here. We're Helio Armenteros for the Astros has been shut down with an injury. This is problematic. The Astros already have depth issues. They're saying Josh. James looks really good and camp. He makes the transition from relieving to starting. You've got Lance mccullers Tommy. John you've got that cranky. In his mid thirties he shows up late camp. You've got Justin Verlander in his late thirties. Coming off of back to back career seasons. You don't have Garrett Cole Anymore. I'm getting extremely worried about this. Astra starting rotation Armenteros was the guy that was probably going to make it as a fifth starter type of dude but now getting shut down. I can't see that being the case. He will make the team out of spring training. Astros team that while they are a pitching factory and they do have guys with a lot of high spin rates and stuff like that. It's starting to get problematic force. Whitley their top pitching prospect as not pitched a whole lot over the last two three years. The Astros have big concerns on the starting pitching side now. Of course their bullpen is very good once again. They'll still out hit a lot of mistakes there. So what it'd be very very good but with each passing day. The ceiling for this Astros team gets a little bit lower for me and it's Armenteros. Injury is just another one about cluster. Injuries I'll talk about one here in a minute but this is a problem for the Astros at something. I think is very is worth watching here closely as they go. Throughout spring training the cluster injuries have hit the New York Yankees just after I finished recording just after I finished posting the show on Thursday. It came out that Luis Severino has been shut down. He's seeing specialists. Which is never a good thing. Now you've got a Yankees team here with James Paxton already on the Shelf Severino now hurt and to Mingo. Her aunt suspended for the first half of the season. The Yankees maybe forced to accelerate the plan for a guy like David Garcia. Their starting pitching questions are getting to be very very big now and Severino was a guy with elite level upside. He was a huge addition to this pitching staff. If they don't have him for a hundred and fifty plus innings and you're talking about them trying to get to a season win total of one hundred and one and a half. I'm worried about this team. I think I said on Thursday show. I like the Tampa Bay rays over the table being raised at plus six fifty to possibly win that division. I like to raise in the sixteen to twenty two one range earlier even thirty to one to win the world series at some places like that the Yankees have problems man. They have a lot of guys on the position. Players side that deal with a lot of injuries too so I'm very concerned about the Yankees very concerned about looking at that over that I mentioned in my betting guide with this Severino News. Just because with all these injuries adding up your ceiling gets lower and lower and lower and I like to raise. I really do like the raise. Their in that American league east and organs slipped on a backfield for the Boston. Red Sox he already has chronic knee problems. Now they're taking it easy with doodle left the issue. Watch this one closely. I mentioned this on Thursdays. Show no commentary on Weirdo. Rodriguez the person but the red sox aren't going to give him a contract extension. It doesn't look like given that they took him to arbitration over a paltry sum of money. If he's not feeling close to right he may take it easy here and you'll go with that body preservation for that free agent contract because you don't get a lot of those opportunities to Major League baseball as a pitcher so watch Rodriguez closely here. That is a growing concern there for the Boston. Red Sox finally just watch for a lot of soft tissue injuries in general guys working out guys swinging the bats a lot more. You're bound to seal bleak issues and keep in mind it oblique here at late. February probably takes you out into the last week of spring training if not the first week of the regular season for a hitter that means you probably don't come back until April mid April something like that. If you'RE A pitcher you're probably out until may so watch for those oblique. Watch for those intercostal things all of those who had to have an impact on the ceilings for the teams here around Major League Baseball. I'll be back on Thursday with another edition of the better boxer taking a look at the American League West and of course you can email me Adam at Bangor Book Dot Com to get on the mailing list here for the betters box notes.