2 Episode results for "Burton Malki"

Some of those temporary layoffs might become permanent

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

25:40 min | 11 months ago

Some of those temporary layoffs might become permanent

"On a Friday at the end of May we will wrap up the past five days. Of course there's also some economic data a little wanderlust and some Texas Honky tonks to from American public media. This is marketplace in Los Angeles. I'm Kai Ryssdal Friday. The twenty ninth today of Megan has always to have you along. Everybody Yay was only four days a work this week for most of us. I guess but it did feel Kinda Long. You know lots talk about so we are going to get right on it genus. Mike is at the New York Times. Neil Richardson is at Edward Jones. Hey to hike Aniela let me start with you and With the caveat that we're GONNA have Nancy Marshall Genzer here in a minute talking about personal income. I want to get your take as the trained economist in the room on the on the thirteen point something percent drop in consumer spending in the past month and I want you to frame it in terms of well. Consumers are basically this entire economy. Now what do we do right? The consumers are the engine of growth for the economy but the consumer has been staying at home. Many of us are under lockdown orders. That are just now starting to ease and so what we've seen. Is this phased in transition from a near lockdown of the national economy in April to a phase reopening That's happening in stages in so consumer spending is under the weight of that lockdown in terms of. Well there's nothing to spend our money on besides basic goods But also Some fear about re reengaging with the economy without social distancing protection and so the key to the recovery will be that consumers feel healthy both physically and financially to get back to spending at their normal levels. And we're GONNA talk about that a little bit with with Marshall Genzer Minute Gina As sort of along those same lines Fisher J. Paul did a thing today with Ellen blinder at Princeton Sort of a Q. And a. It was. It was a very nice little chat with those guys who've obviously known each other forever. But one of the things Alan blinder said. He's a professor of economics at Princeton. He said look. You guys are crossing some red lines in this crisis and Powell came back and said. Yeah you know what? I'm okay with that because this is different. I thought that was a remarkable thing for the guy running the American economy to say remarkable. You know basically said emergency unlike anything we've ever seen before if we didn't cross the red lines we'd have to explain ourselves to the American people and say why. Why didn't you do everything you possibly could do to save. The enemy was a remarkable statement. I think it's it's really interesting coming from pal too because he has historically been particularly concerned about crossing. Some of the red lines at the Fed has crossed one of them for example is fine municipal debt. You know. That's that's something Derek opt to start doing. It's something that he's been asked about four in asked he was always very quick to say. That's a lie. Don't Cross picking winners and losers This crisis Bonilla's so Senate Majority Leader Mitch. Mcconnell said today just sort of on those along those lines of this being you know an unprecedented crisis senator. Mcconnell said today you know the next relief bill whenever it comes Is probably going to be the last one you buy that now. Not at all because we're still in the early transition of the of the economy. The second quarter is supposed to bear the brunt of the economic toll of covid nineteen remember. We've already seen a five percent decline and US GDP just on basis of two weeks of a shutdown in late March. So imagine what the second quarter is going to look like and you know. Much of the stimulus has come at a time when people can't spend because they're at stale they're staying at home so I expect that there will be more stimulus. We may see some some green shoots of recovery in the second half and it's likely that we will but that's going to be in the midst of an uptick in bankruptcy says firms struggle to make this transition and some longer term effects in terms of the forty million people who are now seeking or have Unemployment benefit so. There's a long red to recovery and I don't think we get it. We get out of a relief effort from the from the government that quickly so junior. You did a piece of honestly and I apologize. I don't remember if it was today or yesterday about the shape of this recovery in the line stuck with me is v stands for very unlikely which I kinda love. Let's riff on that. Green shoots thing What do you see out there that gives you hope if anything right so I think if there's one hopeful take away from that road it's that we're not in for an out so it's very unlikely the growth just fell off a cliff and it's just gonNa stay low forever and that's it because what we're seeing is that activity is picking up in an starting at certain improve as we kind of get used to living in this world at a one thing that's important to note? Is that activities picking up in places that have reopened not really markedly different way than it is in places that have reopened more fully at While to sign of green shoots. I think it's also reason to be modest in our expectations. What's going to happen? As we reopen doesn't seem like he blurts pouring back into their lives with unbounded doozy Azam. Here nearly you by that. And what green shoot do you like it if any well I? I think it's the preconditions that we were. In prior to the pandemic. It's important to remember. This is a a biologically triggered downturn that the economy wasn't broken Going into the outbreak in the pandemic and so there are several things that were already in place like a healthy banking system that can support some pretty intense and aggressive fed action through the banking system. That wasn't the case in during the financial crisis the banks were the problem. We've also seen consumers have relatively healthier balance-sheets than they did during the financial crisis in terms of them out of debt relative to their income. So some of those conditions will help with the economic toll. But right it's going to be. I think a slower road than a V. shape And it's going to be based on biological and medical advancements not just reopening alone right which we are seeing Nila Richardson. She's an Edward Jones Gina. Smile it covers the Fed For The New York Times. Thanks you too. Thank you k next weekend is have nice weekend as best you can. I suppose ending the month on Wall Street today. You know that old saying sell in. May and go away. You know there was a whole lot of buying this month. We'll have the details when we do the numbers Off Lead today as promised in that segment above comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis in the form of a regular report on personal income that that office does incomes in this economy up ten and a half percent last month also in April. Of course twenty million people in this economy lost their jobs. Marketplace's Nancy Marshall Genzer explains what is going on at the every month. The federal government adds up all the money. We made that month from wages. Interest dividends even government benefits then. The Bureau of Economic Analysis spits out personal income number showing how much income went up or down. It doesn't usually make headlines. But the April number made economist. Jaws drop tells us that this is a very weird moment. Jason Furman is Harvard Economist. And former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. He says incomes went up last month because of the twelve hundred dollar relief checks most. Us adults are gaining. Plus the government tacked an extra six hundred dollars a week onto unemployment payments. The government has protected people's incomes from the large decline that otherwise would have been caused by the economy workers have filed more than forty million unemployment claims since the coronavirus pandemic hit the US for says government benefit payments rose in April by a whopping ninety percent and Owen is an economist at Hamilton College. She says without the government help the April personal income number falls a lot. Income for the month of April would have gone down substantially instead of being up ten percent. We would've been down roughly five percent. Most of the relief checks have already been sent out so we'll personal income look like for May Ernie Tedeschi policy economist at ever court. Isi says the income number for this month will probably make headlines again because it will drop because these stimulus payments are one time An after they're sent out they go away. It's not clear if if Congress is going to do another round at all but we're at the end of May we know that there's not going to be another round in. May Tedeschi says the government will keep adding this six hundred dollars to weekly unemployment payments. But that's set to expire at the end of July. I'm Nancy Marshall Genzer for marketplace thought. A lot about supply chains in this crisis grocery stores for instance and some of the challenges getting stuff on shelves there overseas sourcing as well and how that has gotten harder supply chains. Are Everything really which explains why Ford and General Motors to name. Just a couple have started paying their suppliers early to keep them alive and supplying for however long. This thing lasts marketplace's replenish. You're has today's corona virus supply chain primer at the beginning of the pandemic. It turns out that some companies started hoarding electrical equipment. Don't ask me. I don't know people also started hoarding toilet paper. Luke Durkin handles North America strategy for Schneider Electric which makes all kinds of electrical equipment electrical infrastructure. Now that kind of a surprise is a problem for a business because it sends a shock wave through the supply chain. You got to ramp up and so do your suppliers supplies as we all know now. You might think that in twenty twenty a business would know it. Suppliers suppliers were running low. Or if it's customers. Customers were clamoring for more but a lot of businesses don't know that the covid nineteen pandemic really exposed a lot of the vulnerabilities that we have in our global supply chains. Katie George is a senior partner at McKinsey. Think about how Amazon has created this very simple way for us to track our orders. That's a simple kind of tracking mechanism that actually many companies don't have around their own sources of supply. Some companies now want to set up digital systems to see what's happening in their supply chains everything from actual scanners along the way to just sharing data between businesses something. They weren't willing to do often until now. Schneider Electric though has been doing it for years so we can look at supply at a and say okay. These guys are at eighty percent capacity right now. So they're gonNA box out so we should think about to place in an older them all. We should switch to supply be. They're also protecting their supply chain physically. We all ended up a massive machine from China we actually my Mubarak which we sharing watching lots of firms are also supporting their supply chains financially. Says Jeff Pratt WHO WORKS ON SUPPLY CHAIN CONSULTING FOR BDO? He says his clients have talked with their suppliers. About how much cash? They need and make payments if they had to the entire focus was sort of collaborating with the suppliers to get through the situation together not jeopardize those relationships and providing the appropriate cash flow through the supply chain. No Man is an island and no businesses either in New York. I'm revenge for marketplace. Coming up your maybe more logistics to consider. Aren't there always but first. Let's do the numbers all right. So here's how may goes out unjust royals down seventeen points today. Lesson tenth percent closed at Twenty. Five thousand three eighty. Three Nasdaq up. One hundred twenty points. One point two percent finished in ninety four eighty nine s p five hundred fourteen about four tenths percent three thousand and forty four there for the week. The Dow climbed three point nine percent. The Nasdaq up. One point seven percent the S. and P. Five hundred up three percents salesforce. We can three point. Four percents DAB for the business offer maker cut its annual revenue and profit forecasts. I will confess something if you promise not to tell anybody. I'm still not really clear on what that company does. Bank stocks down Citigroup and J. P. Morgan Chase slip two and a half percent of wells. Fargo down two point seven percent today. Bond prices rose yield on the ten year. Treasury note fell zero point six five percent. And you're listening to marketplace. This is marketplace. I'm Kai Ryssdal. Okay to review and other two point one million new claims for unemployment benefits this week. More than forty million total on employed since the middle of March. That's about one in four people who had a job in the before times who now don't something like seventy eight percent of the people who were laid off. Last month told the Labor Department that they were thinking there. Layoffs were temporary they really only been furloughed and would be back at work at some point that some point though is proving elusive marketplace's Mitchell Hartman has more on that. A lot of jobs aren't coming back yet because a lot of businesses may never come back economists Beth and Bovey no at SNP global sites a survey by the US Chamber of Commerce back in April. That found about a quarter of business owners were read. Their companies wouldn't survive more than two months arena. Jobs that were waiting for temporary unemployed. Won't be there and says economist analyst with at the indeed hiring lab with unemployment already in the double digits right now as a particularly tough time to job search because hiring has slowed across the economy overall even in some formerly booming sectors. Sanjay Khandelwal is fifty four. And he's worked in high-tech finance jobs. He has two kids in college and a big silicon valley mortgage to cover cold. I was going to be laid off and February. I reached out very quickly to my network. Got One interview than a follow up and they all seem to go really well and then I got emails saying hey with everything going on. We've just Kinda put on hold after that crickets. I don't see the job market rebounding very quickly as it comes back. I do think it would be more difficult for experienced and more expensive workers like me. Meanwhile the sectors that are hiring now are offering lower skilled lower paid jobs. Daniel show is with jobsite glass door ECOMMERCE delivery supermarkets. These are industries where demand has even increased during the crisis. Some workers are coming back from layoff as restaurants construction sites and stores Reopen Darius. Win Lee was laid off in April from a restaurant in eastern Nebraska then. The owner got a paycheck protection loan and reopened. And so she called me. I was only two employees out of seven that were willing to come back so I went back to work. He says most of his former CO workers were concerned about getting sick and online hiring sites report that searches for jobs that can be done remotely have spiked as the dynamic is dragged on. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace. Here's an item. From the Texas Restaurant Association bars and restaurants and Honky tonks in the lone star state have lost six hundred or so million dollars in revenue. Since were shut down. Those places were to open up a week ago with certain conditions twenty five percent capacity inside no limits for Patios tables of course at six feet apart also no dancing. Bars of course are kind of made for close quarters. So how in the world deer run one of those businesses right now. Marketplace's Zandi Euler checks in from Austin. Long Bar of some repute minutes after opening. Its doors last Thursday at midnight. The blind pig was already filling up this bar with a dancefloor and big rooftop. Patio is on Sixth Street. That's Austin's version of Bourbon Street. I caught up with twenty five year. Old Taylor Blount on his way inside I think it is a little nuts. It doesn't seem like anyone's social distancing. I mean people kind of over at this point. It's over the idea of avoiding six street. He's not wearing a mask but says he's comfortable being there. That's what Bob Woody is looking for the owns the blind pig. I met him there later in the week when things were a bit calmer and he ran down the things they're doing to help people feel safe. We get up to the front door. The dorms wearing a mask or or if shield and he's got spray and we're going to pray your hands and if you don't want him sprayed you can go someplace else but we're going to spray on. That's our policy. Texas governor Greg. Abbott issued his own set of bar policy suggestions last week. Things like bars should only operate at twenty five percent. Tables should be six feet. Apart and hand sanitizer should be readily available. Would he opened the blind pig pub? The second he was allowed to Craig Premise etch is waiting for a minute. He's partner in too often. Bars have Alina and nickel city. You're obviously motivated the bottom line and to make the business stable. But you know we don't need to be the first. Let's see how the customer base is sort of responding reacting. How customers react could be the most important thing in determining what bars are GonNa look like because the guidelines? The governor issued aren't hard and fast rules Michael Klein President of the Texas Bar and nightclub alliance governor. Abbot purposely. Use words like suggestion recommend so that There's more interpretation than it's not as hard to her in practice. It's really up to the individual bars to make sure people are safe. We're expecting our bar owners to have a masters in public health and figure it out. Peter Hotels Studies Molecular Biology Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine Houston but would be ideal would be if you know a business owner call a hotline and ask someone to come out and inspect their facility and give them recommendations as okay here. Can you should be doing X. Y. and Z for. Now Bob Woody at the blind pig. Says he'll just do his best to follow. Whatever recommendations. The governor's giving him? I've made the promise that I will not close again if you're compromised in any way. Get in a safe place. I'M GONNA open and people can make a decision walk past this place or come in the hopes to get his bar to at least half. Its Pre covid nineteen capacity in a few days time in Austin Texas. I'm an Euler marketplace. There are not right at this very moment. Too many options for Getaway. Quick Break Someplace. Different to change your pace. But that doesn't mean you can't daydream about it. Mariel Sarah did. I was sitting on the couch the other day watching TV another day stuck in the house and I saw this ad for Scotland. It starts with a gorgeous coastline view and then runs through the country's greatest hits castles locks historic ruins even a shetland. Pony the big puff of hair on its head for and then. The tagline absence makes the heart. The AD comes from the country's tourism board visit Scotland Gwen res- who does marketing for the board. Says they wanted to reach the people who are stuck at home right now and what we wanted to say to the with this video is you really need to think about gain. Scotland on your list. Ads LIKE THIS. One are everywhere. Indonesia's tourism board a sharing photos of the country's national parks with the Hashtag travel. Tomorrow it has competition from Germany South Africa Mexico and Switzerland which has its own tagline dream. Now travel later. Cloudy exempt works for the Swiss tourism. Board we won't to being contact with our guests. We wanted to be talking to them. Making sure that we are thinking of them that there knowing that we're waiting for them and while they're waiting xenophon his colleagues are not above tempting you with some dreamy visuals of a train ride through the Swiss Alps. Switzerland like a lot of other countries relies on tourists dollars. Henry heartfelt is a travel industry analyst at atmosphere research group in some countries tourism can account or twenty percent even thirty percents of their GDP in Switzerland the tourism industry is just about three percent of GDP. But it's also a big source of jobs in small towns and heartfelt says if it seems a little early to be lowering Taurus considering the pandemic keep in mind especially International. Travel has a longer lead time. And you're maybe more logistics to consider Dame de to start doing this now even though he says some places might not see overseas traveler's until next year Mariel Sagarra for marketplace. This final note on the way out today. Quick call back to that fed share. Jay Powell did this morning. I was talking about up. At the top Alan Blinder as I said a professor of economics at Princeton and occasional guest on this program by the way was doing the questioning those who have known each other. I'm sure for twenty years probably more so there are mostly softballs but still interesting. Here's one blinder asking the question from when they were just warming up. So this is your forty fifth reunion. And congratulations on that. By the way did you take economics? WanNa one incident. Remember who taught to you way back? Then I did. Burton Malki taught it. I took Micro and macro as a matter of fact my freshman year this is the only e concourses. I took though to more than me. I'll tell you that all right we're going to. Here's your moment of economic context end of week inflation in this economy or rather the lack thereof an indicator known as the core personal consumption expenditure of the Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation. Came out this morning down. Four tenths percent in April from a month earlier so no inflation now thinking about what we said. Earlier this week go studied disinflation again which our theme music was composed by B. J. Liederman marketplace's executive producer. Is Nancy Farghali? Nancy cast is the managing director of News. Deborah Clark is the Senior Vice President and general manager. I'M KAI result. We will see him money. Everybody have yourself a great weekend outside. If you can stay. Say Wash your hands all I could say this is APM.

Nancy Marshall Genzer Federal Reserve Alan blinder Kai Ryssdal US Jay Powell Honky tonks Neil Richardson professor of economics Austin Texas Princeton Schneider Electric Bureau of Economic Analysis Mitchell Hartman Los Angeles The New York Times business owner Marshall Genzer Megan
Episode 95: Focus on These Three Cannabis Stocks Set to Soar

Stansberry Investor Hour

1:16:07 hr | 2 years ago

Episode 95: Focus on These Three Cannabis Stocks Set to Soar

"Broadcasting from Baltimore, Maryland and all around the world. You're listening to the stands berry investor. Our? Tune in each Thursday on I tunes for the latest episodes of the stands berry investor. Our sign up for the free show archive at investor our dot com. Here's your host, Dan ferris. Okay, everybody. Welcome to another episode of the stands berry investor. Our I'm your host, Dan ferris. I'm also the editor of extreme value. That's value. Investing service published by stands berry research. We got a great show. I'm going to get right to the rant because it's a special one today. Okay. This is something I have been wanting to do for quite a while. And I thought after last week's rent this kind of was the perfect time to do it. Now last week, by the way, I'm happy to report that last week's rent was very well received which means a lot to me because it was kind of a personal plea. So if you haven't listened to last week's episode, I hope you'll download it and give it a listen. It was just I was just trying to implore beg plead investors to take control of their own portfolios. And to only partner with people they really trust brokers and advisors and things, and I got one heartfelt Email from a listener who said am I doing something wrong? I found an adviser. And then he goes on to describe this great relationship that he has this advisor in this Email, and of course, I can't give personal advice all limited to say as he described what sound like a very good personal relationship to me. And that's a way to make your investments really personal you partner up with people you trust. Okay. So that's definitely part of what I was describing just so, you know, all right? So this week I'm gonna I'm gonna continue a little bit based on the theme from last week. But I just want to give you some practical things to do. Actually some books to read. They're all pretty short. They're all extremely well written and you'll breeze through them. And the ideas are absolutely fantastic. Okay. And these are things that if you don't quite know what I was getting at last week and don't quite understand how how to make investing really personal how to take control of it. I think these books in the order that I'm giving them to you. It's like it's almost practically a step by step for doing that, practically speaking. You may have to read between lines a little bit. But it's it's really all there. And I think it's pretty plain to see the first one. Now, the first book I'm gonna recommend today is not just the first book, I'm gonna recommend today. Okay. It is absolutely. The first book any investor should read. Once they decide I got some capital. I want to I want to invest it. Somehow I wanna get in the stock market. I wanna buy bonds owned by real estate, whatever it is. This is absolutely. The first book any investors should read if you're if you're fifteen or or ninety five or anywhere in between. This is your first stop. It is called the elements of investing by Burton Malki, he'll and Charles Ellis and a couple of podcast ago. I said two or three podcast ago. I think it was episode ninety one with James Grant, I said that saving saving money as the master skill for investors. Right. And that's what this book starts with. And it just treats. And it says things about saving that. I didn't say really wise wise things. So I highly recommend it. And it gives you some practical tips on saving in a small way and saving in a big way. And then it just has a few. It's very short book because I am two hundred pages, and it's small pages, and and very well written. These guys have written plenty of books in their time both of them and both have written other excellent books that are mentioned actually right on the cover here. So that after saving they talk about indexing, diversifying, avoiding blunders. Remember one? We talked about negative advice. What not to do? They have a chapter on that in here. Then there's a chapter and keeping it simple. And they've got some other stuff in the end about taxes and so forth. Simple things that everybody should know highly recommend this the elements of investing by Malki Ellen Ellis. You wanna make you want to really take charge of your investments? Read every word of this. Take it to heart practice it. Okay. Numero uno. That's the one right? The second. One is a book that I'll probably mention a million times because I'm a value investor. Okay. But. Value are not no matter what you are. You. I think you need to read chapters eight and twenty of the intelligent investor by Benjamin Graham, again, the guy writes in a slightly older style than what then the other book, I just mentioned elements of investing, but he's really good. And and I actually have a little little alert on my computer, and it comes up on my phone to once a month to read chapter twenty of this book, it's called margin of safety as the central concept of investment, and it will teach you a lot and chapter eight will teach you how to deal with the fluctuations in the stock market. Gee, I'd like to know that wouldn't you you better know it before you buy one single share of anything so chapters eight and twenty of the intelligent investor. Warren Buffett says by far the best book on investing ever written. I mean, that's a pretty good recommendation from a guy who's made tens of billions of dollars investing. So we got the elements of investing and the intelligent investor and all these books are written by investment geniuses. Okay. All of them Malki. Oh S. Benjamin Graham, all these people spent their entire careers in the investment industry. The next one is around here somewhere. Heritage is it's the most important thing by Howard marks. And the funny thing about the title is that as Marx tells you in the in the front of book, he came up with the title because he would find himself sitting down with investors with his clients and potential clients, and he'd say the most important thing is this the most important thing is that the most important thing is the and it was a different most important thing every time. And so there are eighteen most important things in the book. And and and it just kind of shows you that investing is complicated. There's a lot to think about and this guy more than anyone else even more than Warren Buffett on these particular topics makes them very very simple and very very easy to understand. And all of these things you will want to go back. These are your reference sources for these topics. Okay. So the most important thing by Howard marks. He's got three chapters on risk in their. Gee, that's a big hint. Isn't it? You should know. Something about risk. He's got chapter on cycles. He's got a chapter on second level thinking, right? I level thinking is when you say. You know, she the the economy's bad and stocks are going down. And I shouldn't buy anything second level thinking says. Stock prices are low because thing everybody's kind of sour on the economy, but they're getting pretty cheap. And I found a few good companies that I think are really great buys right now. That's second level thinking versus that first level things. When most people do that, knee jerk reaction is your first level. All kinds of other great topics in there and they're essential. You can't do. I would say that all of the things I'm having you read here every chapter in elements of investing chapters eight and twenty of the intelligent investor every chapter in the most important thing. And again, it's not even it's maybe a couple hundred pages. Every single chapter is absolutely essential can't live without it. Now. The next book I'm going to recommend the fourth one. And I'm and I'm only gonna recommend five altogether. Is it's it's one of the one of the classic investment works. It's by Peter Lynch. It's called one up on Wall Street. It contains one of my favorite quotes ever, which I will read to you right now. He says then again, this is right at the end of chapter one in the book for maybe a chapter two looks like chapter one. Anyway, he says then again, maybe you shouldn't have anything to do with the stock market ever. That's an issue worth discussing in some detail. And here's the good part because the stock market demands conviction as surely as it victimizes, the unconvinced I love that demands conviction. And surely as it victimizes, the unconvinced how many times have you sold at the bottom. How many times have has your conviction wavered and you've made a bad exit or even a decent exit? And then the stock turns around and flies up, and and you know, sores without you onboard. I've done it myself too many times, and there's lots of other really good stuff. My my my copy of this thing has several of those good quotes just sort of underlying and underlined and underlined to the point where the pens like almost going through the page. Again, just essential kind of reading. And so these are essential reading. But they're also there's another point here, which is that all of these people are investment wizards their investment geniuses, and you should read if you really want to take control of your investments, you should make these people you're partners. You should read all of Warren Buffett's, shareholder letters write on berkshire-hathaway dot com. You should read books like the ones that I'm recommending here. And there's one more hour recommend. I looked on Amazon and there's like seven copies left. I think if you guys all by those seven they'll they'll get more because I it's not out of print, and it's called the money masters by John train. Now, there's one called the new money masters, which is harder to get. And I don't I'm not recommending that when but if you want to get that one too great. But I definitely think the money masters is is a good source for just learning about some great investors that you may not have heard of now there are people in here like Warren Buffett Benjamin Graham, there's chapters on each of them. But there's also chapters on people like Paul Cabot, Philip Fisher. Stanley Kroll T. Rowe price. John Templeton, Larry Tisch, Robert Wilson, you never heard any, you know, maybe Templeton or something or T Rowe price. But or fill Fisher, even but Cabot Wilson crow probably never heard of those guys, and they're definitely worth. Sort of learning something about and the point of that is. Definitely learn something, you know, as much as you can from great investors, and I have a bunch of books around here that are basically, you know. The same thing. There's like a chapter each chapter is devoted to a great investor. But I sort of thought this was the best one to to recommend on this very short list of books designed to help you take control of your investments. There's another thing. I wanted to talk about okay? This book elements of investing is really really basic stuff. And that's that's not by accident. Okay. This is not I told you this before when I talked about saving as the master skill. I learned something by studying music. I studied music in college. I was a music performance major. That's what my degree was in. I've played classical guitar. I still play. And. I was born and raised in Baltimore studied guitar at in university in the suburbs of Baltimore with a guy named mon- or I'm sorry guy named Michael decker who was the protege of of a guy at Peabody Peabody is in Baltimore, the Peabody conservatory, one of the great music schools on the planet earth, and it Peabody when my teacher Michael was there was a guy named Manuel bar Waco, one of the greatest one of a handful of the greatest guitarist ever to play the instrument period. Full stop and just a really nice guy. You know, I went to several of his masterclasses, right? Where where you have, you know, he'll be on stage with a student and there'd be an audience, you know, and he'll give a class for for the student that we can all watch. And I went to several of those went to several his performances and one time I drove up to Philly from Baltimore. And I was standing out front of the venue and Manuel pulls up and gets out of his car and says, hey, how you doing? He recognized me from going all before. Forces and masterclasses says, you know if. Do you have a ticket yet? And I said, no, I was going to go in and get one in a minute. He says, well if they run out by the time, you get there. Get me a message, and I'll make sure you get in just really really good down to earth guy and musical genius. When it gets our. And he taught me something. Just by watching him in these classes, he kept giving the same advice over and over and over, and it wasn't some complicated. Hard to figure out thing. It was he would ask every player on every piece. He said did use a metronome. Did you play this with the metronome? Did you metronome this every single time? And then they'd say sheepishly. No, I did. And he's at you have to have to use a metronome van. Well, has this very insistent. Way of telling you have to do it. You have to do it. And and he's right. And I, you know, I play some pretty advanced stuff these days myself, and and you just you have to use a metronome and every piece because because you just do it's one of the basic things, you know, you have to master the rhythm. It has to be extremely solid, you know, for the piece to really sound great. And it occurred to me that there's really no advanced class. There's an advanced class in the technique of, you know, contorted your fingers on a given instrument on the guitar or violin or whatever your instrument is there's an advance there's an advanced class for the technique. But for the music, not really there's not really an advanced class, you're mastering the basics over and over and over and over with every single piece you play you revisit the basics. I gotta get the rhythm. Right. I gotta get the tempo. Right. Not too fast. Not too slow. Gotta push it. Here got to pull it back there. Every single piece every single investment you make the master skill of saving will help you. And and the negative advice. You get from reading things like chapter twenty of the intelligent investor or the chapter in the elements of investing or the work. Of the till f for that matter. The negative advice helps you an every single investment. The skill of saving helps you in every single investment. You're just revisiting the basics every time. There is no necessity of, you know, taking the advanced class, which in-investing would probably be like, you know, learning all the option Greeks or something like that. And we don't even know you to go in with to what that means. If you don't know what it means because you'll never need to learn it in your life, just revisit the basics start with these five books, and maybe I'll try to list them on the on the website. Once we get the podcast up here. But that's that's my rant for today. If you wanna take what I said last week if last week charged you up, and the feedback that we got suggests that it really charged a lot of people up and got him excited about taking control. I would say. Take a breather. Don't buy or sell anything read these five books. Read every word of them, read everywhere. Word them three times. I had a teacher in college. Who said you gotta read everything three times. Then I read a book by guy named Mortimer Adler philosopher, and he said, you know, a great book should be read three times. You know, once you get the sweep of it. The second time you dig in and get the nitty gritty and underline things and figure out things. You don't understand the third time you tie it. All together these books deserved three readings a piece at least. And even after that. You will go back and refer to them. They will become sources of timeless wisdom for you. You know, you're in fact, like your first five sources of that. And and then you know, there's lots of other good book street. But by all means you want to take charge start with these five that's the ramp. Let's talk about what's new now. Okay, everybody. Here's what's new. First thing I'm gonna talk about is little report that I read about on pile on line, pension and investments online is the website. And they put out a little report. Maybe a week or two ago. And it says the headline is by. A research from an alternative investment consultant research firm called cliff water is what this report is based on on pension and investments, and it says cliff water says the US date pension fund returns badly trail, the aggregate assumed rate of return. That's a lot of gobbledygook. What it means is this. The US state state pension funds throughout the US in the aggregate all together. Assumed that you have to assume a return because you're a pension is people contribute to the pension. And you know, one day they need to take out of the pension and live off of it. Right. So you have to kind of estimate. You know, what you're going to be able to give them in twenty years when they retire. So the, you know the pension fund invests the assets, and they estimate an annualized rate of return that they'll be able to get over a certain period. Now, the the insight here that I shares that pension funds are kind of notoriously bad at a couple of things. One of them is is estimating future returns. And another one is like that. You know, they're always calling the top of whatever investment is like the big fad. It's it's horrible actually. But. Cliff water found that the weighted average return that they estimated back in June of two thousand through June of twenty eighteen was seven point seven five percent. That's what they thought they were gonna make over that period of time. What they actually made was five point eight seven percent doesn't sound like a lot. But it is over a long period of time. You know, it's thousands and thousands of dollars difference to a pensioner. And so that, you know, it's rather typical. And if you have a pension, you kind of want to know what they're assuming you know, if it's the year two thousand or the year two thousand seven or I would say right now two thousand nineteen well if they've got a lot of money in stocks. They're going to underperform whatever they're telling you they're going to make they really are. And this and the report went on to say this almost two percentage point shortfall contributed greatly to a decline in pension funding ratios from close to one hundred percent in two thousand seventy three percent as of June thirtieth two thousand eighteen according to the cliff water report what that means is they were one hundred percent funded. They assumed that there were one hundred percent funded talk in two thousand well now, they're only seventy three percent funded. So they've got twenty seven you know, if they had to pay everybody out today. Everybody would get twenty seven percent less than they thought something like that. So yeah. Careful be careful on the pension funds. Okay. All right. Another thing in the news Uber. Uber's kind of an interesting animal. Uber says it's going to see a three point one billion dollar deal to buy Katerine this week. So it's three billion. This is Kareem networks. Dubai based rival company that does the same thing as burger, you know, these sharing things so. Three point one billion in cash and shares. And with one point actually one point four billion in cash one point seven billion in convertible notes, and the notes will convert into Uber shares at a price equal to fifty five dollars. A share Uber is expected to publicly file for an IPO in April and this could value. I thought the the value was was lower than that. Maybe we should I should have checked in that. But the point is that it values the company as much as a hundred and twenty billion. And you know, they lose money. It's this giant thing. That's kind of a great idea use it all the time. But it, but it loses money and has a giant valuation. That's kind of a sign of the top. It's a typical sign of the times. And I got another sign of the times earlier this week in this in the digest. Brian beach of stands very published a piece, and he discussed a company called we work, and you know, we work, right? They they basically by office buildings or they lease office buildings. And then they cut them up in and lease smaller pieces of them at higher rates for the smaller piece, and they collect the difference. And they have a massive valuation of like forty seven billion dollars. Now, there's another company that's been doing this since like, the nineteen eighty s called WG has a valuation of like two billion dollars and has like thousands of properties versus like hundreds for we work, and it's just like another sign, and we work is this. It's insane. Okay. The valuations and saying I think the CEO is off his rocker in the wall in the New York Times, I'm sorry in early twenty eight and he says to assess we work by conventional metrics to miss the point. We work is really a real estate company. It's a state of consciousness he said that in public it'd print with a straight face. Okay. And it is just a real estate company, but they they they try to sell themselves as tech company. Right. So they. You know, they have these. Industrial. They they have kind of an industrial style in all their buildings and they. You know, they have free beer, apparently, not kidding, free beer. And then they have all these other ventures that they're starting we live, which is a residential version of we work still just real estate, right, then European style hotel concept with shared bathrooms called we sleep and something called we Bank. We have no details about that. We sale is Caribbean boat charters, and we grow which is like a computer coding academy for a for profit computer coding academy for preschool children like three year olds and up promising a curriculum that emphasizes socializing an entrepreneurship for three year olds on up. And and there's other weird stuff. So that so it's a weird company. The valuation is way too high. Part of the value problem with the valuation is that Masayoshi sun from SoftBank has jacked up evaluation. Just by putting lots of money into it. Right. So he he it's a private company. So he invested at one valuation, then he put a whole bunch more into it assigning it still higher valuation. So it's the valuation that SoftBank is is recording their stake in which evaluation. We're all going off of is kind of a made up thing. It's pure Bs. And and beyond that, of course, when you get something like we work, then you also get shenanigans. Right. So the CEO we work Adam knew knowing Mon is he's personally buying buildings and selling them to the company an obvious conflict of interest. Right. I mean, if we work is a real estate company, I know what they're doing and they're not overpaying etcetera etcetera etcetera. Then why shouldn't they just buy them? Why do they have to buy them from new on? Well, I guess he wants to make money selling them to his own company. And when the board, you know, protested this he responded by creating a super voting class of shares and giving himself enough votes to kind of override the boards objections. And the accounting is a little odd to say, the least they take non gap accounting to a new level. They use something called community adjusted EBA that's earnings before interest taxes depreciation amortization kind of a standard cash flow metric community adjusted Eva to deduct s- employee salaries marketing costs for fixing up the buildings pretty much everything except the least cost for leasing the buildings. I mean, Brian beach sent me an Email about some of this. He said I've seen a lot of funny non gap stuff but backing out the employee salaries like that's not a gentleman expense. Wow. He says, and wow, I say, wow, you should say. Bizarre worlds stuff. Just bizarre. That's what happens at the end of the cycle stuff. Like that stuff. Like, you know. Uber. Taken out a probably not none unprofitable competitor for three billion bucks. And we work being valued at forty seven and doing all this shenanigan crazy stuff. All right. Just a couple more things. The Elon Musk circus continues an SEC judge. I'm sorry SEC urges a judge to act accusing musk of kind of muddying up, the contempt of court case against him. He tweeted eight tesla production forecast for the year and February corrected himself within a few hours. That was like the five hundred thousand four hundred thousand escapade, I think and prompting the SEC to ask that he beheld in contempt of court. And of course, we I told you Whitney Tilson who who is now made a deal stance. Very. He's saying this is it and the stock is gonna finish under a hundred bucks this year still well over one hundred I think it's still well over two hundred. And the thing has just been. It's just levitated. I mean, there's no reason why this brand new company should be valued roughly the same as like GM GM actually makes money, and it sells a bunch of cars million cars all over the world and not millions. But it sells a lot of cars all over the world, and it has the same valuation, roughly as tesla which lose lights money on fire has a crazy CEO. An apparently, according to all the tests bears, just playing all kinds of games to report things in the best possible light, and they come out with a new model, and then you kind of look closer. And it's not really that model. It's kind of a previous model jazzed up and look like the do it. This is the kind of stuff that you see this is, you know, maybe I'm guilty of confirmation bias. But that's what you see at the top of long bull markets. So be careful out there with this stuff be careful with these giant IPO's like an Uber or a we work or something if they IPO be very careful. All right. It's time for our interview today, and we have Tom Carroll. One of the newest folks here at stands berry, and Tom has the impressive resume, folks. Tom's been a regular on networks like CNBC and FOX business over the past two decades. His work has been featured in the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg the financial times Kipling or CBS USA today. Just name a few here in a masters degree from the department of health care finance at Johns Hopkins, Bloomberg school of public health. Tom spent seventeen years as an analyst and managing director for Legg Mason and St. full financial at that time fortune ranked him as the number one health care analyst in America. He received the all star analysts award for excellence and stock picking twice for years ago. Tom took a risk. He became an angel investor in what is now a major. Player in the medical cannabis space, and that experience changed his life. So today, he's wave goodbye to his old job on Wall Street. He wants to take his twenty years of experience in health care where he won award after award for finding some of the most profitable investments and begin a new legacy finding the same kind of opportunities and cannabis stocks. Now, the kind of opportunities Tom uncovers are not like the cannabis investment, you'll likely hear about in mainstream media a lot of that stuff is garbage, by the way, these are opportunities that Tom has personally vetted in handpicked because he thinks their position to soar hundreds of thousands of percent as cannabis legislation and legalisation continues to sweep across the globe, Tom Carroll. Welcome to the program. Thank you so much. Glad to be here. All around. Yeah. I mean after that introduction, your I'd be glad to be here to the end of the day. I'm like I said I'm hundred and knucklehead he put it all together. It looks good. All right. Well, we don't think you're not going to. So before we get into all this cannabis stuff. I mean, it seemed like you were dedicated to hell finance just from school days from the time of your masters studies. So you decided healthcare was going to be big, and you are going to get involved in finance way back. Then I did I did I grew up in a healthcare family. And I can remember my mother very clearly saying you need to get into health care. And I don't mean as a doctor. I mean on the money side of things and she was spot on without advice. And she reminds me of it to this day. Wow. So this is like, you know, this is the opposite of what everybody else report everybody else says, you know, when my mother tells me to do something it's the top of the market. But, but you have the op your mother, actually steered you, right? Yeah. And I guess at that point time I'd had enough experiences with my parents that I knew they they kind of knew what they're talking about. I try to explain that to my kids. To. But they're not there yet. Maybe they'll they'll get there you keep keep pounding them. So, you know, just tell us a little bit about, you know, your time before stands berry, just maybe an experience or two that kind of helped you get where you are today. So experience you're to that helped me get to where I m or just your impression your impression of the corporate world. And you know, just just you know, you're how you're thinking developed may be before you got into all this cannabis stuff. Sure. So like like, we just mentioned I knew I wanted to be in health care. I knew I wanted to be on the on the dollars side of things it felt like a recession proof business to me as it has proven to be, and it it's it it's something that was only going to get bigger and was complicated and was full of emotion. And as I mentioned, and I think it's worth mentioning again, it's full of money and. Thank you put all that stuff together. And it creates an environment or an ecosystem that is very well suited to investment. And I worked in a number of places kind of in and around the healthcare world prior to getting into the Wall Street job. I had and. Those experiences in really being part of it. You know, sitting in the basement of a of a hospital doing a Medicare cost report or being in the physician's office who's trying to, you know, run his small business, and we're trying to do as books for them, or, you know, working on reserve calculations for a managed care company. I'm all of that stuff turned out to be a really really great base of knowledge as I somewhat accidentally fell into my Wall Street job. And again, once I once I got into that role as an analyst with initially with leg Mason. We were we were bought by St. phone number of years later, and I continue my career there. But all of those experiences, really laid a great groundwork for stepping in and analyzing companies from. From a from a higher level, and then translating that into into stock picks, and I ended up being there, you know, about eighteen years. So I guess it worked out yet. You that is some nitty gritty stuff you described before, you know, before getting into sort of the Wall Street career yet. And I I think the nitty gritty stuff is really what makes investing in healthcare. So so great because it's hard right people. Don't get it. I've had a number of institutional investors say look we just haven't been involved in healthcare because we don't get it. We don't get you know, what the big risks are. And what the governmental focus could be in does that create winners or losers? And in my view, it's great to understand that to some degree. I don't know that I'll ever fully understand it in health care. I don't know if anybody will. But you know, to dive into that and really create created a differentiated view that can turn into. To what have been some really decent investment opportunities over the years. Yeah. And you know, so how does it guy? Like you. You know, how did how did you navigate for example, you know, ObamaCare, and that changed a lot of things. I know it changed my life. I'm paying a lot of money for healthcare. These days of what you know. What did that look like to a guy with your experience and knowledge? Yes. So great great question. I mean into kind of the end of two thousand and seven and early two thousand eight there that's really when the chatter began that ultimately led to the health care reform debate in the United States that ultimately led to the signing of the Affordable Care Act, aka ObamaCare, and investors didn't know what to make of it. You know, it was like this this brand new sweeping push for legislation. That was also going to be quite sweeping in nature. And it the first question is while there's going to be winners and losers. So who are they going to be and no one really had a good idea? So it was it was a lot of kind of sitting back and working on various scenarios. You know, if this happens, then, you know, the the managed care companies are going to be better if this happens in the hospitals are going to be set, you know, and and on and on. So it was a it was a lot of kind of keeping track almost on a daily basis, especially as we got towards the implementation of the ACA in twenty fourteen but it was a it was a constant battle. And and quite frankly, I think it was it was a a world of trading back, then so we were doing a number of trading calls, which is kind of opposite of my investment process longer term. But the overall environment really required that at the time. So you know, we may be by rated on one thing at one time and and change our minds, you know, three or four. Months later as opposed to you know, three or four years later, which was really the goal of my of my investment opinions on stock. So it it was it was a crazy period of time. I had I had investors. Look at me and say, why don't I short all of these things. Right. Two zero. You know, question, Mark. And not a not a rhetorical question. You know, when I was having to come up with discussions around things like that. So it was it wasn't an easy time. But I'll tell you it was it was a lot of fun. And there was a lot of demand for opinion and my time as well as others in the market at the at the time. So I was quite busy. So as good job security as well. So I'm actually looking forward to twenty twenty. I think healthcare is going to be another front burner issue as we head into the next presidential election, and that's gonna create probably some similar tidal waves out there in the world, you think just generally are there specific of? Specific issues that you think are going to be more important. You know in two thousand twenty or you're just you're just in general counting on it being an overall factor. I mean healthcare legislation and the push as a as a big healthcare. You know, either from, you know, get everybody covered or make it more of a free market system. I mean that that tends to come around every other presidential election. If you look at through the history of different elections in the different healthcare top hits at ten ten to skip an administration, and so this one it's it's gearing up. I think again to be another, you know, primary issue for the election. And you're already hearing about it with calls for Medicare for all or Medicare for America. There's a there's a number of different proposals that are out there. So right now, it's really hard to say who are going to be you know, winners or losers. It's also hard to say what ultimately the final issue is going to be. I don't believe a Medicare for all will work in the United States. Dates certainly not at this point in time. But it sounds like the push towards some type of I don't wanna say single payer system. But some type of universal coverage system pay a private public partnership program is probably going to be beat be crafted an and put out there to be voted on. So that's that's again will absolutely have ripples across the entire healthcare ecosystem, which as you know, is approaching twenty percent of the total economy. Wow. Yes. So I'm going to indulge. I have these pet peeve questions about every industry, and I've gotten to indulge my banker questions the last few weeks, but my my pet peeve in in healthcare is just you know, from my own perspective as a consumer it feels wrong to me to have. I don't even know how many at this point. I've seen estimates of between six. Six and and sixteen or so administrative people involved in virtually every transaction between me, and my doctor, and I feel like well, if we're going to have a system like that where everybody's got this insurance. You know, most people do now, especially, of course, the cost is going to be high. Does that my right and my way off Mark here? I think that's a an easy an easy argument to point at. But at the end of the day, the administrative part of the system is actually very very small. I mean, the primary driver of US health care costs are the price that we pay for products and services at the hospital and the price we pay for products and services at the doctor's office, those two things encompass over fifty percent of the total medical spend that's out there today. And and again, this is you have your belief. This is my belief if doctors and hospitals were allowed to administrate on their own healthcare would be a lot more costly than it. Even is today, maybe on a cynic. But but but I truly I truly believe that that would be the case. So. So I think a lot of what what we call administrators and middlemen. I'm either there again, not all of them. But they're they're trying to create a system of checks and balances in the system that our country has decided that's the way we want to do it. Right. Other countries have decided that the checks and balances are going to be done at a single payer level. You know, so for example, in in the UK, there's a there's a an agency called nice, and I see the National Institute of comparative effectiveness, and this is the group within the NHS that basically says, you know, yes, you're gonna we'll pay for that expensive drug treatment, or no we're not gonna pay for it. And if you want it you're going to have to pay on your own, right? Those decisions aren't really made in the United States right now, or they're made kind of under the radar screen by you know, the the administrators that you refer to and the various. Checks and balances that are out there. Right. And there as you mentioned there across all different parts of the system their Medicare or Medicaid there at commercial insurance companies. They're you know, within hospitals that are taking medical risk there within big physician groups that are taking medical risk and so on and so forth. So I guess that's a long winded answer to your to your question. But while the administration can seem annoying, and it certainly if you look at it in the aggregate, it's big dollars. But at the end of the day, it's a it's it's really a very very small component of the overall spending in the United States. I see so. And specifically I was addressing the fact that you know, I pay a lot for insurance just for my wife, and I and it seems to me like the it's maybe I'm hung up on the word insurance. Because insurance to me doesn't mean this doesn't mean that. Yeah. So I mean that that's where I thought. Well, if they're calling this insurance, but it involved in every single transaction. That's not really insurance. And of course, that's going to Jack the cost up at you're saying, no, not really. Yeah. It it. It's. Actually, the cost of like paying physicians and buying medical equipment and doing the stuff that they do. Yeah. Yeah. Fact, my my grad school advisor, Dr Gerry Anderson at at Hopkins, he just published a study he did about fifteen years ago and the title of it is called. It's the prices stupid and the new the new study is called. It's still the prices stupid. And he basically looks at the price per unit of thing. Right. The price per unit of service or product in the United States and compares it to OAC nations out there, and what he found I guess eighteen years ago now, and what he found just a few months ago is that in the United States the price per unit of service is anywhere between three and ten times. What it is in other places, you know, adjusted for oh, all kinds of things. And so I I again, take administrative out of it. You still? Have all of that. In fact, I would argue that all of that would even be higher without some of the Jackson balances that are out there. Again, there's always, you know, the example two point to well, you know, this pharmacy benefit managers, not given rebates back to this particular organization. You know, sure, there's there's always that stuff out there. You know, the drug pricing stuff that's out there in the media right now, again, very very easy to point at that stuff and say, this is what's wrong. But again, even even the even the drug pricing stuff. I mean, if we were to cut drug prices across the board in half, it would influence about seven percent of total medical spending. You know meds are only about fifteen percent of the total medical dollar. But it's a great place to start because everybody has has a good sense of what that is. And what that means. Everybody has a good sense of, you know, medication and how they get them, and you pay your co payment her or whatever, and you take your meds and all. Hey, I I got better. Right. So we have a good tangible understanding, so we're going to fight the fight for healthcare costs and make them better. I think in the sense of either flat or lower, you know, pointing the finger at a drug causes a perfect place to start I say speaking of drugs. So. Do it. But it just worked. Yeah. Speaking drugs. I I have to say I've been doing this twenty one years, and if you told me like even four or five years ago, stands berry research will soon offer a product called, you know, the cannabis capitalist. I would have said, no, you know, totally devoted to investing in and companies that I assume either grow or produce marijuana based products. I you know, I just never would have believed at and that is really that is your primary right now at your sole focus it stands berry, a not. That's correct. That is absolutely correct. It's a it's it's amazing. It's it's a it's a place that you know, you've had a there's been a missing component there. And it's a I think it's going to be a absolutely enormous industry in the next five years. Okay. So you and I talked about this a little previously. But but I wonder if you could just flesh it out a little bit for us. Of course, marijuana's still it's like a schedule one drug. It's still illegal at the federal level. Yup. And yet, and yet we have I live in the state of Washington. There are marijuana dispensaries all over the place with every kind of product, you can imagine, you know, flower, vapes and shatter and all this weird's and edibles and all this stuff drinks. So. You know, every now, and then somebody says, well, you know, the the feds are going to come down there. They're they're getting ready to come down on some of these people. But it never seems to quite happen. What is your view on this this, you know, tension between state and federal in the United States. Yeah. So. I guess if we go back, you know, the the Obama administration, basically, set the tone and said, look we at the federal level. We know it still it's still legal it still a schedule one drug equivalent to heroin, and you know, but that being said, we are a nation of states, and we are going to let states kind of experiment, and and do their own thing. You know, wall kind of keeping a an active I on things to make sure stuff doesn't get out of hand. Again. That's kind of my interpretation of things and the world under that kind of environment. Did very well. You know, you seen obviously as you just mentioned Washington state, Oregon, Colorado, California, the state of Maryland now where I live, you know, begin to create and think about laws and. Eventually enact them and implement, you know, systems and programs and companies dispensaries to start to start working on it that environment somewhat changed a bit when Trump took over and put attorney Jeff Sessions attorney general Jeff Sessions in place who is notoriously anti cannabis. And so there was a, you know, a fear of uncertain wave of uncertainty that kind of went across the country, and it almost felt like he had to have a public face. But kind of behind the scenes he was saying. Yeah. While we're really not gonna do much. But I don't think anybody really believed him. Anyway, sessions is gone now in his his successor. William bar is known to be much more open and much more, you know, allowing states to kind of continue the regime that they had under the Obama admitted. Station. So I think the the conflict between. The way cannabis's scheduled at the federal level, and what states are doing now. I mean, it it still exists, but it's kind of existing again in a in a in a less in in a less scary way than than it did even just over the last couple of years, I say, so I'm I'm inferring from all this that. And obviously, you're very bullish stance on some of these investments that that you think maybe we'll see more states that go recreational, and maybe this thing will just keep an an and I noticed in the intro that I read you know, that we talked about it's sweeping across the globe. So beyond the United States. Even you know. So that's your view that even just around the world. This is this is in motion. The momentum is forward. It's not going backward. Do I have that? Right. Yep. You absolutely have that. Right. I think one of the great ways described kind of the globe. And looking across the world is looking at Germany, Germany is a essentially a medicinal country for cannabis and the national health system in Germany. It's it's actually a reimbursable benefit. So you can go to your doctor, and if your doctor decides that having having a, you know, a a ten percent THC. Comp whatever it is whether it's a cigarette or a an edible if that's going to potentially help your ailment. You can go to the pharmacy and get it and the government will pay for it. You know, almost like you going here in the United States and having your insurance company pay for your meds at the pharmacy. So I I think that's a just a great data point out there from a global perspective. But you know, you're seeing similar stuff and obviously in the Netherlands Australia. Poland South America, Uruguay, an a number a number of places. So yeah, it's not not not just a a US states thing. Fact, I would argue the states is kind of the the United States is is behind the curve, relative to all those other places, you know, but, but but the, but the traction is there, in fact, the one thing I'm just thinking about now that since you mentioned kind of the conflict between federal government in the state. I think there's also conflict within the federal government self, and there's kind of two there's two things actually I'd point to that happened last year that I think are very interesting. We had the FDA approve a drug called EPA dialects EPA dialects is a very effective treatment for two rare forms of epilepsy. Epa dialects is a cannabis derived medication. Now, why is that important will the FDA is a federal agency that's approving a drug derived from cannabis right? But the federal govern also says that cannabis is illegal. It's schedule one or Khattak. That there is some significant policy conflict. And I think that that conflict is driving the discussion at the federal level to rethink cannabis or at least get to the point where the states that have already done so start to make policy and move in that direction. So I thought the approval of epidemics was a really critical data point to consider not just for the, you know, the company that makes it or, you know, the biotech industry, but for, you know, really, much of broader implications than that. I mean, the other thing I'd point to which I think is equally as important as the twenty eighteen farm Bill now, the farm Bill is a a piece of federal legislation that gets updated every three or four years, and it basically is the government's kind of policy stance towards the nation's agricultural industry and the farm Bill in two thousand eighteen basically kicked the door wide open for. The cultivation of hemp and hemp is a cannabis plant up until now there was a handful of states that were experimenting with growing him. But now hemp versus marijuana. It's like it's like flip flopped. I mean at the at the federal level hemp is is legal now and some states actually have more stringent restrict more stringent regulations, you know, versus like marijuana, which is illegal to federal level. But you know, states are legalizing and coming up with new things for it. So that to me also, you know, the farm Bill legalising hemp cultivation again is is significant policy conflict at the federal level. Which to me suggests the discussion is moving forward where the United States is eventually going to loosen restrictions on how it classifies cannabis. That's pretty cool. So. Yeah. So let's talk about this. This new research service that you guys are starting up here. And it's it's called the cannabis capitalist. Is that right? Correct. Okay. It just right off the tongue. Right. It certainly does. And and so how often are you going to publish this thing? So we are going to publish on the second Thursday of each month. And we hosted a really successful webinar last night that was quite fun to do. And we will be looking to in terms of kind of some of the goals of this provide probably another six to eight actual stock recommendations with full analysis over the next year. But I also have the flexibility to you know, not off. For a recommendation, if it doesn't seem appropriate at the time based on valuation, or you know, milestones that are are upcoming in lieu of that. We will be putting reports out on some type of industry trend or data points or something. That's interesting that will help the audience to better understand this industry and to make as as good of investment decisions. They can you know, should they be looking at you know, buying and or selling some cannabis stocks that are out there or cannabis related companies as well. I see. And so you guys sent me some some info in this deal starting to portfolio with three stocks three buys, and you've got ten stocks on a watch list with by prices that you're kind of looking at. That's that's where you're starting out yet. So the watchlist we have just a small. Small clarification there that that's going to be a list of companies that we have interest in that we think investors need to look at and no something about if they're going to be investing in this space. They are not recommendations to buy right now. But sometime in the future that is going to be kind of our primary source as to where we we come up with new recommendations. I I hear you loud and clear I've I've have done that in the past in my own newsletter. It's a good idea, and you get so any anybody who signs up for this thing's going to get three reports. Let me just read the title. So everybody knows what they are the cannabis capitalist portfolio foundation. So these are the three companies you need today that that you're starting to portfolio with the second report is ten cannabis stocks to buy over the next ten months. There's your watchlist, right? Yep. And then the cannabis IPO you don't wanna miss which. Sounds really interesting. I'll have to ask you what that is. Once we shut the recording off your. And we have a deal for everybody. Who's listening now on stands berry investor? Our normally this thing is four thousand bucks a year. Good for you, man. That's a that's a stout price. But they can get it. For almost forty percent off twenty five hundred for a one year subscription by going to WWW dot stands berry cannabis event dot com. So there's your deal there. You know, you pay zippo for the podcast, and you get forty percent off of this new service that we got. So we did talk yesterday. I guess we had about five minutes to go here. We talked yesterday. There was one particular company that you felt comfortable kind of releasing into the to the world for free as it. Were you want to say a few words about that or you? Yeah. Sure. Absolutely. We okay, we talked about it on the on the webinar company called green. Thumb industries. It is a. United States based and United States focused company. That is I think positioning itself in places that already offer very good regulatory visibility. So, you know, various states around the country the management team is spot on. I think with its strategy. We've met with us, which by the way is one of the things that were trying to do here at least in in in my franchises, meet with as many companies as possible that we're gonna be recommending, you know, that's a that's a institutional investor institutional research type of process, and I think it's always good to to meet a management team because those are the people that are going to make your investment successful. So it's good to know. Oh them anyway. So so US based company I think that is going to be positioned very well as we continue to see more states legalize cannabis for either recreational or medicinal use the company, I think is one of the characteristics. We've identified here that we like in any stock is these guys are really good alligator of capital. You know, they seem to be making again what I call out a good common sense kind of decisions. And in my years on Wall Street's amazing. The number of non commonsense decisions that seem to be out there being made by who. I thought were really smart people. So yeah, that's the norm. Oh, I don't know about that. But so I mean, these guys are making decisions like look at it doesn't make sense for us to go in and spend a bunch of money building grow facility in California. When there's you know ten thousand plus licenses to do that already. You know, we don't want to be wanted ten thousand we want to be one of, you know, eight, you know, so they'll spend the money, and they'll they'll they'll actually go through the work to to bid, you know, follow the state regulations to to to fill out an application and bid for the business, and they're and they're winning. I mean that that is that itself suggests a very a very good management team. I mean, you know, think about think about going to get your driver's license, right? And the motor vehicle association or the DMV or whatever it's called in your state. You know, there's hurdles with that. Right. It's a pain. It's not easy. It should be. Now. Imagine trying to go get a license for a schedule one narcotic drug at the federal level that your state says you. Can sell now entr and trying to negotiate those hurdles and he's guys who are doing it. So I think I think that is a is a big a big positive flag for us as well. And then the financials are are strong, the they're they're looking at hitting what I call triple digit millions this year, and then likely doubling that in twenty twenty got plenty of cash in the Bank in the centrally no debt. So all in all it's a it's it seems to be a really good story that I think has a good bit of legs in the coming years either. As a standalone story in stock all by itself, or as a potential takeout for one of the larger companies to come in because the end of the day. I think you're gonna see, you know, a ton of companies you're already seeing it flood into this business. And then you're gonna see a handful of them. The consolidators and start buying them up in this is one that potentially could go either route either on its own or as a takeout candidate. So at this point in time, I think it's it's very interesting. The the other thing I'll mention in terms of allegation because everything comes back devaluation at some point. You know, the US focus stocks are less expensive and they're less expensive because there's an overhang in the United States, right? Cannabis is still illegal here at the federal level. There's uncertainty and uncertainty drives lower valuations. But if were reading the writing on the wall correctly, that's when we want to be buying stocks. Right. You wanna buy a stock when the story has got a little hair on it. And as the hair clears up, and the story clears up the stock and work, the Canadian based companies are much more expensive as you'll as you'll see as in the report, we put out, but but that's an that's another reason we like these guys, and I guess. Last thing I'll say about his other smart people in the business, including competitors of green thumb have made very favorable comments about the business. So when your competitors are saying good things about you. I think that rings very true. Yes. That's a very good Phil Fisher and Warren Buffett technique go. Go ask everybody else about this company and see what they say. And you get a really nice picture of. It's good business the other competitors, generally paint. Really nice picture for you thorough, Tom. Well, we come to the end of our time. I wanna thank you very much. I think this new thing you're doing is going to be a huge hit. I can't wait to read it myself. And you know, good luck. I'm I'm sure this is going to be hit. I'm sure people are going to buy your service. And and I I mean, I'm going to eat it up put it that way. So and maybe, you know, after a while after you know, you get some more recommendations out there. We'll have you back on the program, and we'll we'll find out where where cannabis. Is at that point. You know, maybe several months in the future. Yeah. Thank you very much. Glad to be here. Happy do it. This is a lot of fun. All right. Thanks, tom. And we'll we'll talk to you soon. Hopefully, very good. Okay, folks. One more time that was Tom Carroll and. I want you to go to stan's berry cannabis event dot com. That's where you can get almost forty percent off twenty five hundred dollars for a one year subscription. The thing is normally four grand, and it's a brand new service. So you when you get it. If you sign up you're going to get the very first reports, and it comes with three special reports, the cannabis capitalist portfolio ten cannabis stocks to buy over the next ten months and the cannabis IPO you don't want to miss. I don't even know what that is yet. I gotta ask Tom. So you know, you're finding out about this stuff almost at the same rate of speed as I am. And you know, if if cannabis is something you're interested in I promise, you this research is going to be kind of a cut above all the stuff that you're hearing. When TV you here. There's a lot of sketchy companies in the cannabis space, and Tom has a huge long track record as a very careful effective stock picker, so I'm really. I'm looking forward to find out what the good businesses and cannabis are and Tom is going to tell us stands berry cannabis event dot com. Okay. It's time for the mailbag. Remember, your feedback is important to the success of our show, and you can just Email with a question or comment to feedback at investor our dot com, and I read every one of them, and I try to respond to as many as I can. So this week. I've got a few of them here this week. I've got a few few really nice wants to read here. First one is from James h and he says, hi, Dan, I have some nervousness about the market being near a long-term top. I believe it could run some more. But I'm interested in diversification outside the market, and he's got three questions here. One. Can you share what your portfolio allocation looks like in terms of stock cash gold real estate other? I realized their equity options for some of those categories like, and he cites G L D, the ticker symbol for for the, you know, it's like a gold bullion trust that you can buy and he says, I also realized that's a personal question. But hearing from you on this, and why you've chosen your allocation would be a big help. Well, I'll answer that before I get to the other two and basically I'm cashed up right now. And the only equities I own our gold stocks. I also have a portfolio of options most of which are puts. All say is that you have to understand what position I'm in. Okay. I my contract for biz me from from buying the stocks that I recommend my newsletter. Okay. And and imagine if there's like some horrendous market crash, and, you know, something should happen and people should cancel their subscriptions took shooting value. And porter calls me up and says, nobody wants you anymore. And neither do we. You know, I so my portfolio tends to be kind of an alternative, but it includes as much of what I can get you know, that resembles my own recommendations as possible. So for example, I do have I recommend precious metal or really mining royalty companies, and I own a very small one myself. So I hope that gives you some insight but biggest asset right now is cash. Get like by far number two. He says what are your thoughts on real estate is an investment such as residential income properties? And or tradeable commercial reits is now a good time for either. I mean in general right now, it depends on where you go. Like, the the froth has come off. And is probably going to continue to come off like high end, New York real estate, for example. I know the froth has come off higher end houses here in southern Washington, and you know, in general kind of around the country. So it's it's on a company by company basis. We do have one commercial read in the extreme value portfolio. But their biggest asset is cash they're selling property. So I'm real cautious. There. And as far as residential income goes. I mean, if you're talking about your local area, you know, more about it than I do. But I would really run the numbers and make sure that you're coming out ahead. If you go that way. Final question with regards to trading. Stocks are good rule or analysis on using trailing stops versus buy and hold when considering dividend stocks. Boy, that's a tough one that really is a very personal thing. And I don't think there's a rule of thumb. In general. Most people, you know, if they use trailing stops they use it on all or most of their portfolio. We had Richard Smith from trade stops who who sells trailing stop software on the program. He said, you know, I think it was like ten or twenty percent of his own portfolio doesn't use trailing stops and he experiments with positions there. And then the rest of it does. So maybe you might consider something like that. But if you think you have a really good long-term hold on a stock. That's gonna pay rising dividends. I mean, it's it's a really good question. I'm I'm sorry. I don't have a Pat answer for you says, I really appreciate your thoughtful analysis. I'm an extreme value subscriber. And do not hesitate to recommend your newsletter. You know, James I thought you sounded like a really smart guy. Okay. They'll back number two, Dan you've made me a real fan of stands berry investor. Our and he says a bunch of other stuff. I just want to get to his question. He says, so here's my question with boomers downsizing and millennial showing a profound lack of interest in. The traditional three bedroom. Two bath home with two or more cars in the driveway. Not to mention millions of people squeezed out of home ownership during the great housing crash. Could we be in the midst of a massive shift in home ownership? And I think it's the that's by Mike, see, Mike. I'll direct you to an article in the Wall Street Journal recently called a growing problem in real estate too many too big houses, and you could be onto something there. I'm not going to say, yes or no at this point. But it sure makes a lot of sense. And there's some data in that article that you might wanna check out. Okay. One more question. This one is from Jack e Jackie says love your show and your newsletter extreme value your rant this week. That is to say last week regarding how investing is very personal in different for every person hit home for me. I'm a stands very lifetime alliance member and have been saving investing for many decades. At least since my preteen paper route days. Good for you, man. That's awesome. After listening to the latest podcast in hearing the phrase quantitative easing for the thousandth time. I realize I still don't really know what it means. I am not dumb and have been investing successfully for many decades. But my head seems very hard on this concept when googling the word quantitative one gets this, and he just gives a definition of quantitative data. Then he Google quantitative easing says one gets the introduction of new money into the money supply by central Bank. It seems he says it seems the term means that a central Bank is creating some quantities of money and credit from nothing. Is there a way to describe this in layman's terms that is very easy to grasp they're creating money from vacuum? Who gets it? First big banks, US federal government, the military. Okay. This is a great question. There's actually a great article on Wikipedia, and I encourage you to go look quantitative easing on Wikipedia. But yeah, you got the basic idea quantitative easing means. A set program usually like some monthly amount by a central Bank. Dedicated to buying securities usually bonds of that country. You know, so the the federal observable say, you know, we're gonna spend whatever it is ten billion a month or something buying long dated US treasury bonds. So, you know, the first person who gets the money are, you know, who whoever owned those treasury bonds or the treasury, right? If they're just buying them from the treasury. They're probably buying them from Goldman Sachs. So that would be the first use of that money. But that that's basically the answer. And then go and Wikipedia not give you more detail than you ever would want to see your life. But you do have the basic idea. Correct. All right. So that's it folks that is another episode of the Stanbury investor. Our I hope you enjoyed this when because I really really love talking with Tom Carroll, and you know, go to if you're into cannabis investing. And you think there might be a real business here? I think they're probably a lot of good ones. Tom TOMS job is to find that out. So go to stan's berry cannabis event dot com, and we've got a special deal for you. All right. So you can check out all of our recently. You can check all our episodes at the revamp website, and you can see transcripts of all the shows. You know, we get emails about that. And you can just enter your Email there and get all the latest updates. Just go to that same address WWW dot investor. Our dot com. All right. That's it for this week. Thanks for listening, and I will talk to you next week Bye-bye. Thank you for listening to the stands. Berry investor our to access today's notes received notice of upcoming episodes, go to investor our dot com and enter your Email have a question for Dan, send him an Email at feedback investor our dot com. This broadcast is provided for entertainment purposes, only and should not be considered personalized investment advice. Trading stocks and all other financial instruments involves risk. You should not make any investment. Vision based solely on what you hear stands. Berry investor hours produced by Stanbury research and is copyrighted understands berry radio network.

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