5 Burst results for "Burnet Institute"

"burnet institute" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

08:20 min | 2 months ago

"burnet institute" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"In miles away from to cry. He's still relieves the trauma Minutemen Me can I didn't the night whenever I hear trucks passing by, they sound like the explosions of artillery. Even a knock on the door. Sounds like a gunshot. There was a time I woke up my sister and told us shots are being fired. There was nothing. It's difficult to express the emotion of course, Commander It's not clear how many people were killed in the conflict, but tens of thousands have fled to neighboring Sudan and millions are impacted. The world Food Program stays up to three million people could be in need of emergency. There are growing calls for more access, and the government says they're providing necessary support. But the cook Casa is the government's emergency response off his head and I'm getting a bottle and Montana they were already 1.8 million people in age into dry. After the end of the law enforcement operation. A further 700,000 people were added. So now humanitarian aid is being provided to 2.5 million of our citizens. Yes. Because cups are strong Ethiopian coffee are finished. The hurry reflects on what has happened to his home state. He tells me he doesn't care who wins any fights. He just wants to see peace and order for his family remaining into cry. Not talent interests. Calculon here Bell Tower reporting there from Addis Ababa in Ethiopia. Listening to news our life from the BBC in London. I'm James Menendez. Until this week, The Australian state of Victoria hadn't recorded a local coronavirus case for nearly a month. Now, though, there's a small outbreak of the highly infectious UK variant 13 cases linked to a quarantine hotel in the city of Melbourne. The authorities are so worried that they've announced a sudden five day lockdown, which began just over an hour ago. It'll mean the Australian Open tennis tournament, which began this week in the city, will have to be played without any Spectators, while his the state premier Daniel Andrews, speaking a little earlier. I am sad to have to report it is the advice to me that we must assume that there are further cases in the community, then we have positive results for And that it is moving at a velocity that has not been saying anywhere in our country. Over the course of these last 12 months, so Because this is so infectious and is moving so fast. We need a circuit breaker. Outbreak in a quarantine hotel has raised questions about how best to make them Cove. It's safe countries around the world are planning to introduce similar hotel confinement for people arriving from abroad, including on Monday in the UK It's believed the Melbourne outbreak mayor started with someone using a nebulizer mask for administering medicine. Vira missed. I've been talking to Professor Mike Tool, an epidemiologist at the Burnet Institute in Melbourne. How likely is it and then realize it could be to blame. I don't think it's the nebulizer alone or the person who used the nebulizer. Certainly we've known for some time that nebulizer is create a kind of fog outside of the person because you know they use a plastic mouthpiece, which is not very tight. The problem, Woz that soon after the door to that room was opened. So given the positive pressure in hotel rooms, that's because the windows are closed and there's a conditioning duct. That here, then moved out into the corridor, and they may have been. I don't know for sure. In a conditioning duct at the end of the corridor, which then blew that fog down the corridor, where there was unsuspecting staff member not wearing the best quality mask. And that person got infected. That does seem to be the suggestion that hotel corridors can be risky. I was reading about another case where a woman got infected, and they think that it was because the door to the room opposite which had a family of five in and therefore I guess the sort of viral load may have been quite high in in the room. The doors were opened at the same time to to both rooms. And I guess in the way that you describe droplets aerosols may have then been sucked into tow her room. I mean, it does suggest a quite an elevated level of risk. That certain because they had no other contact. So you know, it's a kind of warning to the UK as you set up your system on Monday that you need an enormous amount of attention to details. So now mealtimes or meal deliveries are staggered laundry drop offs, a staggered hurter workers They're getting in 95 masks, which are the best and there's ah, number of ventilation engineers examining all of these hotels. To make sure that those corridors and of course, the lobby's any open space. It's a safe, but that's the level of detail that we've learned over 12 months. Is it a good idea? Do you think to have security guards a score people outside for some fresh air. Absolutely not. We've learned that lesson. Don't let guess believes the room because that's a recipe for disaster. We don't hire private security guards anymore. So in my state Victoria, all hotel staff are employed by a single agency. They cannot Have a second job or third job, because if they get infected, they can then very quickly spread that two other workplaces. They're tested every day, even on their days off. Paid to go to a testing site. And I think before long we will be testing the guests every day as well. What is this? Also say about the transmissibility of the so called Cantor English varied. I mean, how how much does that elevate the risks involved? What we found in this outbreak in Australia. Is that the time between the original case infecting their close contacts, and then those people infecting their context is very, very short. And that's probably because this be 117. The so called UK variant tends to lead to a higher viral load, so people have more virus in their throat and their nose. And so they can more easily infect people. Then those people have a high viral load in them. They infect people, so the reason we have gone into a abrupt lockdown is that we're afraid we're not keeping up with that chain of transmission is just going too fast. You think this lockdown is being called a circuit breaker? Do you think it's going to be sufficient to break that chain of all those chains of transmission? I hope so. There's been presidents in two other Australian cities in president and Perth that also had leaks from their quarantine system with the UK variant. And those five day lockdowns worked. I think another advantage we have here in Melbourne is that when there's cluster occurred, we were all wearing masks indoors. That's mandatory. Is a kind of heightened sense of anxiety in Melbourne about the possibility of a third wave because last year as a result of a hotel quarantine Lake We went through what was then the longest locked down in the world precisely 111 days. So none of us here in Melbourne want to go through that again? Professor Mike Tools speaking to me from my album. In the middle of a global pandemic. It's pretty hard to worry about climate change..

Australia James Menendez 2.5 million Daniel Andrews Addis Ababa London Australian Open Monday Burnet Institute BBC 111 days Perth Melbourne Mike Tool five day last year 95 masks Mike Tools Ethiopia third job
"burnet institute" Discussed on Coronacast

Coronacast

06:42 min | 6 months ago

"burnet institute" Discussed on Coronacast

"So Norman in new, , South Wales we had twelve days without any luckily quiet cases and we were feeling really good about it but then yesterday they had three new cases that were from community transmission and at least the reporting. . That, , we have at the time of recording current cost. . We didn't think that they were actually linked to each other. . So how did this happen? ? Well, , you can only speculate eventually it will be explained we you would hope that it's not entirely a mystery that with genomic testing, , we can find out perhaps what viruses their most closely linked to. . So really won't stay a mystery for too long. . So on the one hand, , it's spread from known sources which are not, , which is not readily apparent, , but it is a worry because you don't wear they'd been you don't know who they might spread it to the just a lot of unknowns here. . Even if you could say, , well, , originally did from the Crossroads Hotel and Salah or something like that all those weeks ago. . The other thing that can happen with this virus is that it goes underground with asymmetric spread in a community. . Of people who are younger to know they've got it or might not be coming forward for testing. . So remember testing a New South Wales has plummeted and really far far too low when twenty or thirty, , thousand people a day should be being tested at least twenty thousand and we're done below ten thousand and happy enough for a few days. . So people are being tested and therefore we're going to get more and more surprises like this and in Washington states in the United States. . Beginning this pandemic would underground for six weeks before papa game after somebody arrived. . From China. . So this is what this virus can do, , and we've just go to keep alert. . So three potentially unrelated cases maybe they are related, , we just don't know yet. . What does that say about how much more virus that probably is out there under the writer it obviously means there is more virus out there than we thought even if we know where it came from because reach, , these three people were got to. . Find out who the spread it to the last few days and really get out there and do a lot of contact tracing a lot of testing and hopefully people will come forward. . So the Risto virus is there much. We . don't know that's why they're doing sewage testing. . You might remember that sewage testing did indicate a problem in south West Sydney the other day and Hawkesbury, , but we find any cases in the Hawkesbury catchment. . But this does mean there's fire is out there and you cannot relax. . It also puts paid to this notion that we're going to go twenty eight days without community transmission before Boras Open Up. . That ain't going to happen I. Don't . think they ever get to that milestone to think so and so the tolerance of states like Queensland to do this is going to have to be <hes> a much higher tolerance than it is at the moment possibly even have to wait till the election so that doesn't become a political issue. . So you think we need different thresholds for opening up again. . Is that what you're saying? ? Yes, , I mean I think that the key is you're going to get cases popping. Up . like this, , almost certainly, , and the question is how much community spread has there been from name to others and do you know where that's come from and if you get the sense that New South Wales and hopefully Victoria quite soon knows where cases of come from who they spread it to and they're on top of it under on top of it quickly. . Then the risks while the states really is pretty low, , but it's not nothing. . Well, , there was some good news out of Victoria overnight where. . that. . Number of new cases has dropped back down again on these six new cases yesterday, , and most of them seem to be clustered around these Chad Ston shopping center outbreak, , which we know about. . But there's a big group of doctors in Victoria who are against lockdown measures and they put out a open letter sort of saying that the lockdown measures are causing more health homs than they are good because people isolated that young people are being sort of stopped from. . Going to school and socializing, , and they're actually really low risk and that the risk of carbon to the general population is much lower than the risk of health negative health outcomes because of being isolated <unk> long these are serious issues and I'm sure these doctors care a lot about it. Some . of them <hes> a little bit of overlap with a group of doctors who wrote to I think quarter magazine a few weeks ago stating similar things and it so we. . Could problem I mean what do you do if in fact you had done what some people were arguing for, , which is the end of September that <hes> the premier of Victoria should have really let foot off the brake both things go back to normal for all these reasons as well as for covering the economy. . Then the predictions from the Burnet Institute's mathematical modeling was the the return hundreds of cases in a very short space of time I think that's been. . Borne out when you've seen outbreaks like the chat stone shopping. Center . outbreak and so on. . So it doesn't take much for this to fuel up and I think that Victorians do not want to have gone through least Melburnians do not want gone through all this to have stop start going on and still having significant virus spreading. . So I think that's the problem is that you've got the fuel for the fire there if you don't lockdown than the fuel can actually. . Again and you can get significant numbers of people and the people. . The people who are exposed are doctors, , nurses, , h care workers, , even receptionists and others in care facilities. . We haven't got that much better at controlling. . It is just that we've got a bit better and they're still going to be vulnerable as well as the aged and infirm and I think the we said as a society that's not what we want and on the other side, , there's no question that there's going to be mental health problems. . Economic problems people are turning up late for the cancer diagnosis turning up. . Late when they're acutely ill in the emergency department, , all these things are happening. . No question. . The argument is a good one to make is just the answer is not simple, , and if you'd let your food off the break earlier, , we would have gone back to a major pandemic in Victoria very quickly as it stands, , it's just getting under control and a few weeks from now, , it should be much more under control a suspect it's not going to get to zero, , but much more under control and the contact tracing testing regime should be able to control it with things like sewage. . And testing of things. . So don't think that we're too far apart on this but say right now we should be letting things off is probably a mistake and a he would be supported by any more balloons and just on that the number of healthcare workers in Victoria that are getting infected. . We've got an update on that. . Don't wait about numbers come right down. . So things are getting under control. . They're getting out of control on partly because community spread is under control. . So people are not bringing it in, , but really the major spread was within hospitals needs care centers themselves, , and that is really is coming under control, , which is a good thing. . So

South Wales United States Ultra Norman ABC Karenna Hawkesbury catchment Crossroads Hotel Sydney Salah writer China Washington Victoria Queensland
Why have three community cases suddenly popped up in NSW?

Coronacast

06:42 min | 6 months ago

Why have three community cases suddenly popped up in NSW?

"So Norman in new, South Wales we had twelve days without any luckily quiet cases and we were feeling really good about it but then yesterday they had three new cases that were from community transmission and at least the reporting. That, we have at the time of recording current cost. We didn't think that they were actually linked to each other. So how did this happen? Well, you can only speculate eventually it will be explained we you would hope that it's not entirely a mystery that with genomic testing, we can find out perhaps what viruses their most closely linked to. So really won't stay a mystery for too long. So on the one hand, it's spread from known sources which are not, which is not readily apparent, but it is a worry because you don't wear they'd been you don't know who they might spread it to the just a lot of unknowns here. Even if you could say, well, originally did from the Crossroads Hotel and Salah or something like that all those weeks ago. The other thing that can happen with this virus is that it goes underground with asymmetric spread in a community. Of people who are younger to know they've got it or might not be coming forward for testing. So remember testing a New South Wales has plummeted and really far far too low when twenty or thirty, thousand people a day should be being tested at least twenty thousand and we're done below ten thousand and happy enough for a few days. So people are being tested and therefore we're going to get more and more surprises like this and in Washington states in the United States. Beginning this pandemic would underground for six weeks before papa game after somebody arrived. From China. So this is what this virus can do, and we've just go to keep alert. So three potentially unrelated cases maybe they are related, we just don't know yet. What does that say about how much more virus that probably is out there under the writer it obviously means there is more virus out there than we thought even if we know where it came from because reach, these three people were got to. Find out who the spread it to the last few days and really get out there and do a lot of contact tracing a lot of testing and hopefully people will come forward. So the Risto virus is there much. We don't know that's why they're doing sewage testing. You might remember that sewage testing did indicate a problem in south West Sydney the other day and Hawkesbury, but we find any cases in the Hawkesbury catchment. But this does mean there's fire is out there and you cannot relax. It also puts paid to this notion that we're going to go twenty eight days without community transmission before Boras Open Up. That ain't going to happen I. Don't think they ever get to that milestone to think so and so the tolerance of states like Queensland to do this is going to have to be a much higher tolerance than it is at the moment possibly even have to wait till the election so that doesn't become a political issue. So you think we need different thresholds for opening up again. Is that what you're saying? Yes, I mean I think that the key is you're going to get cases popping. Up like this, almost certainly, and the question is how much community spread has there been from name to others and do you know where that's come from and if you get the sense that New South Wales and hopefully Victoria quite soon knows where cases of come from who they spread it to and they're on top of it under on top of it quickly. Then the risks while the states really is pretty low, but it's not nothing. Well, there was some good news out of Victoria overnight where. that. Number of new cases has dropped back down again on these six new cases yesterday, and most of them seem to be clustered around these Chad Ston shopping center outbreak, which we know about. But there's a big group of doctors in Victoria who are against lockdown measures and they put out a open letter sort of saying that the lockdown measures are causing more health homs than they are good because people isolated that young people are being sort of stopped from. Going to school and socializing, and they're actually really low risk and that the risk of carbon to the general population is much lower than the risk of health negative health outcomes because of being isolated long these are serious issues and I'm sure these doctors care a lot about it. Some of them a little bit of overlap with a group of doctors who wrote to I think quarter magazine a few weeks ago stating similar things and it so we. Could problem I mean what do you do if in fact you had done what some people were arguing for, which is the end of September that the premier of Victoria should have really let foot off the brake both things go back to normal for all these reasons as well as for covering the economy. Then the predictions from the Burnet Institute's mathematical modeling was the the return hundreds of cases in a very short space of time I think that's been. Borne out when you've seen outbreaks like the chat stone shopping. Center outbreak and so on. So it doesn't take much for this to fuel up and I think that Victorians do not want to have gone through least Melburnians do not want gone through all this to have stop start going on and still having significant virus spreading. So I think that's the problem is that you've got the fuel for the fire there if you don't lockdown than the fuel can actually. Again and you can get significant numbers of people and the people. The people who are exposed are doctors, nurses, h care workers, even receptionists and others in care facilities. We haven't got that much better at controlling. It is just that we've got a bit better and they're still going to be vulnerable as well as the aged and infirm and I think the we said as a society that's not what we want and on the other side, there's no question that there's going to be mental health problems. Economic problems people are turning up late for the cancer diagnosis turning up. Late when they're acutely ill in the emergency department, all these things are happening. No question. The argument is a good one to make is just the answer is not simple, and if you'd let your food off the break earlier, we would have gone back to a major pandemic in Victoria very quickly as it stands, it's just getting under control and a few weeks from now, it should be much more under control a suspect it's not going to get to zero, but much more under control and the contact tracing testing regime should be able to control it with things like sewage. And testing of things. So don't think that we're too far apart on this but say right now we should be letting things off is probably a mistake and a he would be supported by any more balloons and just on that the number of healthcare workers in Victoria that are getting infected. We've got an update on that. Don't wait about numbers come right down. So things are getting under control. They're getting out of control on partly because community spread is under control. So people are not bringing it in, but really the major spread was within hospitals needs care centers themselves, and that is really is coming under control, which is a good thing. So

Victoria South Wales Norman Burnet Institute United States Sydney Hawkesbury Catchment Writer Crossroads Hotel Chad Ston China Quarter Magazine Salah Washington Queensland Melburnians Homs
Are big families the centre of Victoria's second wave?

Coronacast

05:29 min | 6 months ago

Are big families the centre of Victoria's second wave?

"So let's kick off with Victoria with as close to that seems to have sprung up from the Chechen shopping center cluster and it's moved out into regional Victoria. Now, it's some people in kill being infected. In a cafe and it just shows you the power of an outbreak and how this virus spreads through clusters and Robin more evenly spread such as influenza. And so for example, three of the cases of the fifteen. So caught a lot of cases yesterday where linked to the chat stone, which is club outbreak. This is a situation where you have got spread. It's still growing and they haven't been able to keep the legitimate so far. The chief health officer in Victoria Breath, Sutton explained why Victoria has been harder to do the contact tracing the nail swear because the family groups that are involved or have been involved a much larger. So where the family groups own averaging Australia to two and a half people. There more than six people in some situations, which means that you've got multiplications of complexity in terms of contact tracing. So each type provide you with another maybe ten people that you've got to contact, and if you've got six rather than two or three, it becomes very complicated and home said many times before is where you primarily catch covid nineteen, the covid nineteen virus. I was really surprised to see those statistics about the family size thought that was really interesting but I did wonder whether actually would make it easier if people living in the. Same. Household I thought that maybe it would make it easier to get in touch with them. It just creates far more people you've got to get in contact with, but yes, you're right. You're you're not chasing too many people depends how late you come to the events, and if you've if you're coming a bit later than you might have six people with Tim contacts each then if three or four days later and you haven't caught it in the first two or three days, then each one of those contacts is contained so it just multiplies out. So if people aren't coming forward for testing quickly or the contact tracing doesn't get on top of it quickly then you'd lose control of it to some extent. So fifteen new cases in Victoria. Are we getting out of control again down there I think what does shows is if if you remember a couple of weeks ago, the Burnet Institute released. Their modeling, which showed that if Torey took their food off the break too quickly on the twenty eighth of September, they could return to very large numbers very quickly and they were supporting the fact that the premier did not take the food off the break too quickly and it was fairly measured but it just shows you that if you lose control of an outbreak, this can grow very very quickly. So it doesn't mean it's to control. But. It does mean you're at high risk and it just shows you the burden. It was probably right if you had lifted your foot off the brake, it could be that you'll be dealing with multiple outbreaks because this is no breaking Chattan shopping center during lockdown. Or relative lockdown. So this is not good news, but at least they're across it and they don't seem to have too many cases under investigation at the moment, and that's the real danger in Victoria when they lose the plot and they just don't know where they're getting their infection from. Some out some more data that came up yesterday was that New South Wales had eleven, new cases all in hotel quarantines community transmission, which is really encouraging. But that seems like a large number of hotel quarantine cases. It just goes to show if we didn't have hotel quarantine those cases, it'd be out in the community. That's absolutely right. Our border control. The fact that we are an island has made an enormous difference to. This pandemic you've seen this huge second wave in Europe we would have had bet to So our border controls are incredibly important and it's not surprised by the way that you're seeing it live in cases because I assume that people are coming back from Europe and they're coming back from the United States and as they do so they're coming back from places where they've got second wave sometimes much larger than the first. Wave. So this is a situation where we would expect to be seeing more hotel quarantine hotel warranties could be really tight. It's probably too early for what the prime minister was suggesting, which is that you allow people to go into their own homes because the influx of people who are going to be positive is going to be growing but at least we're keeping the lid on it and I think as far as I'm aware. Of their keeping the only in Victoria and Queensland as well. So they were community transmission cases in New South Wales yesterday but there was also really low numbers of testing and they're still finding virus fragments in sewage. Yes. The way forward here has to be constant surveillance to see if you're missing cases and if you missing cases you've got to go in and you've got to try and do as close to possible mass testing. The still doing that with PR testing, but you could probably do it a bit more flexibly with rapid testing using rap protests are. Reasonably accurate. But you got to get in and find out where the viruses because I don't think we can any longer rely on people coming forward. I. Think there's fatigue I also think there's probably not much cold symptoms around because people aren't mixing as much. But you just cannot rely on the tasting regime. So you find it. I think Hawkesbury was one area in. New South. Wales. They've gone in and trying to extra testing and highlighting it to the local community. But really anybody listen to this wherever you are in Australia we've said it time and time again come forward for testing even if there's been no case in your state for. Weeks and weeks and weeks come forward just in case.

Victoria Australia Europe Influenza Burnet Institute Victoria Breath Wales Robin South Wales New South Wales Torey Chattan Hawkesbury TIM Prime Minister Chief Health United States Queensland
"burnet institute" Discussed on Coronacast

Coronacast

03:39 min | 7 months ago

"burnet institute" Discussed on Coronacast

"Is an ABC podcast. Hello. This is corona cost I'm physician and journalist. Alter. Norman Swan Monday the twenty eighth of September and I'm Lockin Karenna cost producer. I'm feeling invitation tyler these wake who after hundred and forty seven episodes. Strike is off taking a little holiday. She'll be back next week the soft these days got his holiday after only one, hundred, forty, seven episodes but we welcome you will thank you very much. Norman, you might have noticed yesterday I big press conference from the Victorian. Premier Daniel Andrews announcing a few changes to the states opening and step back to cova normal. We haven't spoken a lot about Victoria lightly but really does seem like there's a very positive story in. Victorian. Out seems like they're ahead of Shinjo when it comes to the number of cases and where they thought that bay? Yeah. No, it's really great news. Even I think there's some of the testing a little bit as well, which is really Good to sixteen cases are still a lot in each care, but one unknown but that and that's really good news where you're just starting to know where all the viruses is in Victoria and narrowing that down. So it's great news and a little bit of the foot off the pedal a little bit in terms of the brake pedal, which we can enormous difference to people in Stage Four, just to be able to get out a little bit more some kids getting to school you've got some definite dates they are. Great News it was interesting about the number of new cases. Yesterday there was sixteen announced and obviously we don't know what's going to be announced quite yet today. But as you you mentioned fifteen of those they've linked to. They seemingly split them differently than other states. I've got tendonitis care and they've got four is what they call complex cases and I'm not really sure what a complex case is. Do you have any sort of idea about how the Victorian Department Sir Categorizing things? No I assume that it's where They think they know where is it could be one of Turkey sources but I'm I'm absolutely a real I really don't know. Victoria a bit notorious for inventing you categories and. Having said the word notorious hall of the communities doing really well. They release restrictions. It does increase the risk of transmission and outbreaks spot. Obviously, you got to do it 'cause you can't stay in lockdown for the rest of your life. Do you think that as Melbourne relax restrictions can keep the number of cases down I think they're doing it in the right sort of step wise way. This is the second what's called second steps, but being announced that cover a whole series of different areas. The effective reproduction numbers well under one according to the analysis that have been done. But on the flip side, an analysis has been done by the Burnet Institute. This does not necessarily predict the future, but it really tells you where things might go and what they've hypothesized is if you took completely off the brake pedal and just let things ripped now, go back to normal there's a forty one percent chance that within two weeks you'd have one hundred, an average of one hundred cases a day. So we're not ready yet and that's based on presumably. The amount of circulating virus they think this is in the community which will just explode if people started mixing again, the reason is under control is that we still have very significant social distancing. So the Victorian government do you think is still taking a very cautious approach despite obviously one, hundred, twenty, seven, thousand people now going back to work as of Monday and other restrictions being lifted slowly from there it's a risk based decision and there are risks in lifting the restrictions night. But as you said earlier, will you got to do at some point and?.

Victoria Norman Swan ABC Victorian government Victorian Department Daniel Andrews tendonitis Shinjo Burnet Institute Lockin Karenna Turkey producer Melbourne