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Tennis World Stops For Andy Murray, Until Politics Takes Over; Kyrgios Wins Our Hearts Again; What's With Rafa's New Serve?
With two days to go before the 2019 Australian Open, the main story in town is still Andy Murray’s announcement that he will retire before the end of the year. Following their immediate reaction to the news yesterday, David Law and Catherine Whitaker were joined for further reflections on Saturday by The Telegraph’s Simon Briggs.The self-proclaimed ‘Andy Murray correspondent’ has spent eight years covering Murray’s career, so what does he make of yesterday’s events? What was Murray like in his half hour sit-down with the British press corps? And has he given himself some wriggle room by talking about a possible hip resurfacing operation?Nick Kyrgios was one of many players to pay tribute to Murray. In an interview with Catherine, he even hinted that he’d like to be coached by Murray one day. How might that work? And what of Kyrgios’ own chances this fortnight?Finally, Simon gives his take on the political storm surrounding tonight’s player council meeting in Melbourne. Why do some players want to eject Chris Kermode from his position as ATP president? Are they actually calling for a players’ union? And how is the situation complicated by the felony charge hanging over Justin Gimelstob? The Tennis Podcast will be produced daily throughout the Australian Open (and at all the Slams) after our Kickstarter was funded by our listeners.If you would like to chip in and have your name on the Tennis Podcast website backers page, you can, until it closes on Monday - http://po.st/TP_Kickstarter2019
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Aired 6 d ago 59:37
8: Cavendish on the comeback trail
This week's episode of The Cycling Podcast tackles all the biggest stories from the world of professional cycling and features an exclusive interview with Mark Cavendish, who is seeking to return to his best after almost 18 months laid low with Epstein-Barr virus. In the first part, Richard Moore, Lionel Birnie and Daniel Friebe recap the week's racing, discuss the reports that Dave Brailsford has met with the president of Colombia to talk about the future of Team Sky after the broadcasting giant pulls out at the end of the year. We also ask whether the on-going controversy over Dr Richard Freeman and his latest no-show at a General Medical Council hearing into the delivery of testosterone to British Cycling HQ when he was a doctor there will affect the team's search for a sponsor. Then we hear Daniel's exclusive conversation with Cavendish, who headed to Majorca to train for his second race of the season. On the island he can vary his training, heading into the hills but also honing his speed at the velodrome. It's a year and a few days since Cavendish last crossed the line ahead of everyone else but despite going so long without a victory he was in typically pugnacious mood, insisting that he can still win at the top level. Cavendish talks about the struggle to diagnose and then recover from the virus. "It's been reported a lot that I've had two bouts of mononucleosis. The evidence suggests it wasn't two bouts, it was the same bout," he said. "I never got over it the first time. That's hard to explain to people. It makes it look like I'm not very resilient, whereas it was completely mismanaged. It's damaged my career for sure, and perhaps my legacy, which makes me angry, but all I can do is my best." **The Cycling Podcast is supported by Rapha and Science In Sport.** **OUR SPONSORS** Rapha is marking the 15th anniversary of Marco Pantani's death with a special pink jersey dedicated to the memory of il Pirata. That, and the book Pantani Was A God by Marco Pastonesi, are available now at [Rapha.cc](http://Rapha.cc) **Science In Sport** are offering all listeners 25 per cent off their range of energy bars, drinks and gels at [http://www.scienceinsport.com](http://www.scienceinsport.com) Use the code **SISCP25** when you reach the check-out. We are delighted to welcome our episode sponsors this week – **Laka**. Laka is a smarter way of insuring your bikes and gear. It’s a community of cyclists joining together to play fair and take good care to save each other money. Go to [www.laka.co.uk](http://www.laka.co.uk) to find out more. If you are new to Laka, you can get a £10 credit by signing up today with the discount code 'podcast'. **FRIENDS OF THE PODCAST** We'd like to thank everyone who has signed up as a Friend of the Podcast for 2019\. Your support keeps these episodes free for all to enjoy. The second of our 11 special episodes is online now. It's called Jumbo-Visma: Chasing Sky and takes us behind the scenes at the Dutch team that has quietly evolved into a serious contender for the Grand Tours. It costs £15 to become a Friend at [thecyclingpodcast.com/friends](http://thecyclingpodcast.com/friends)
The Cycling Podcast
Aired 3 months ago 57:54
The U.K. and Europe on the Brink of Brexit
What is the most profoundly disturbing distressing depressing aspects of British public debate over the last eighteen months has been the extent to which it has revealed, very senior British politicians, profound ignorance of relationships with our neighbors in Ireland a lack of affinity and understanding with the fragility of the peace that was harmed one and secured by politics and can surely undone by politics unless the rates are taking I'm Michaela Fogel. And this is the law fair podcast November thirteenth two thousand eighteen on Tuesday. The New York Times reported that you can e you officials have reached a provisional Brexit agreement though, as of this recording the text of that agreement has not been released. We it law fair thought it would be a good time for refresher on how senior Europe experts and British officials are. Talking about the UK split from the European Union on October twenty third the breaking center on the United States in Europe, hosted a panel discussion on the endgame of Brexit negotiations with circum Darrak Britain's ambassador to the United States. Amanda, Sloat senior fellow at Brookings. Douglas Alexander who was the UK's shadow foreign secretary and Lucinda Creighton, a former Irish minister for European affairs Edward loose of the financial times. Moderated the discussion. They talked about some of the thorniest issues at stake in Britain's departure, including the unresolved trade issues between the UK and EU how Scotland whose residents overwhelmingly opposed leaving the EU in the two thousand sixteen referendum may react to Brexit, and the risks Brexit poses to a peaceful future in Northern Ireland. It's the law fair podcast episode three hundred sixty four the UK and Europe on the brink of Brexit. Thank you know, because not not to pass acuity. But because you've been up Britain's ambassador to the EU you national security advisor to the British Prime minister. And you'll now, of course, Britain's ambassador here in the United States, you have deep experience of representing the British government speaking on its behalf. What is your prognosis of the three scenarios the slight apocalypse, if no deal Dario, the maggots all done and squeaks through parliament's and the until recently fantastical people's vote snow, but have slightly less fun Castell? Now, what what what are you looking at is the probabilities here? Well it thanks pulisic structural. Thanks to me. I. And you have presented what feels lower all the bite one of those foreign office submissions with three options ministers where we will choose the middle one, and I'm which is middle on. But let me explain why the withdrawal agreement which is the the U and the twenty seven which covers all of our leave. Your engines is the prime minister. So in the house of Commons yesterday Monte five percent done. And we have provisional remains all money all the the rights of USA, dozens in the UK and the rights of UK citizens living in in Europe and most of the rest of the leaving arrangements. The hottest spot was always going to be around the the deal all what happens on the border and sewage is proving, but let's we have gotten ninety five percent of the way that if. We get the free trade deal that is body to the checkers proposal. Of course. There's issue of the arch Boorda that get sold on that his plan. A so the debate about it backstop arrangement if that negotiation should not be completed in the in the implementation period the transitional payments runs until end of December twenty twenty and that's not where we expect to be a wanted to be. So it took him about contingency that we hope never happens. Now, we still have some time. There's no European Council in December still possible that could be an expert in council some of Emba we both. We all of us want the same objective, the commission the government the Irish government and the. The states which is no hawed border between overnight. I am confident that we can get that and get a deal, then you also need to a political real into the future. I did maybe that you'll big European nations in my time doing this. What my fifteen years doing this? I'm comfortable that his achievable with the usual creativity. That specialist technicians bring to draft blue implements. So I'm relatively confident about about getting the deal with European partners. I would accept that. It looks quite a vote in the house of Commons. When you bring agreement to house Komen's, but I think there's a little talk. Now, the newspapers usually on named MP's were saying they vote for it. When there is a text one to look at when they consider the alternatives that local rate minds. I think that has the whips of machinery and encourage 'em to support it can do deals with with other groups. So my money is on her despite all the predictions. Movement getting the deal through komo's getting that place. Thank you, just very briefly because I want to move to listened. We have the best, but we prepare for the west to to what degrees of contingency, no deal planning. Inning in the British government as the government said there is planning going on in toll. I know that our colleagues back in went to looking at all of this. We're also trying to find a way through the involves a deal new deal. So. Click. Go white all, but yes, we do planning for that. But he's upset nucle- not the expectation and not the plan. The plan is that we get to a deal European plagues in the next in the next month and a half. And that we then then get deals with comas. Komen's is the you'll you'll political career has been very very much engaged with Europe. But also, of course, almond and it spanned the sort of integration of Europe. You will almonds minister Europe. Remember, European parliament doubt, the presidency of the European Union and steeped steeped in this in this stuff that same time period is also being the entrenchment and the success of the Good Friday agreement that is chief d- pay in Ireland. How faithfully you that that is now in jeopardy took to what degree is your no deal contingency planning in Ireland now live activity. So I think. The the risks surrounding this final phase of the negotiations are very high, and there is a huge degree of concern in Dublin and in Belfast and across the island around the prospect of a deal nothing concluded, I think if obviously well I spent a lot of my time in Brussels. And I think there's a real desire to spend a lot of my time in London. And I think there is a desire in both on both parts of sides to do a deal as I agree. But I think the arithmetic and the has the Commons that I'm sure Douglas talk that this from his direct experience of being a member of a member of parliament Westminster. I think it's highly risky scenario. So there there is a lot of planning across government parts in Dublin. It's a difficult thing to plan for. So there's a lot of searches theoretical planning underway. I think the implementation of that is very unclear. And I think that there is a legitimate on a really deep emotional concern in Arlanda around the political future on the island. It's a very sensitive topic in London and those who advocate for for brags and even possibly for new deal. Really don't like the issue of the peace process in northern to be raised at all. They think it's scaremongering and fearmongering, and they were really angry when the rod Kerr teasha prime minister raised us at the European Council last week, but he was right to raise it because pieces is hard won an it's very fragile and it's very easily lost. And I concluded my high school exams leading search in nineteen thousand nine hundred and and so I suppose I come from that generation which to our childhood witnessed on our televisions every single evening bombs, not just in Northern Ireland, by the way, but also in in Britain, which devastated people's lives thousands of people killed and that is something that the people across the aisle. Of Ireland are deeply concerned about maintaining and preserving the peace process. And we don't take it for granted. And we are really concerned about wass and odeal scenario could potentially unleash if there isn't a agreement by by before March and probably by the end of this year. So this is a real risk real trash on something that that that Irish people are really concerned about Douglas your. Steve Jim, British politics minister for Europe in the labor. The last labour government sexually state for Scotland. Which of course, we're going to bring into this conversation to opposition spokesman shutters pipes for an offense. Given your parliamentary. You're now have it, of course, which is where most left behind, but you'll still. You'll still in oppo position to observe and with your spirits, judge the prospects here giving your parliamentary experience and given the leadership of your power t Jeremy Corbyn as at best lukewarm pro European but somebody didn't up to the match today. What are the chances? Something could go wrong in this vote, and we could crash into. No deal situation. I think the risks are very real. And the jeopardy is very greet. That is of course, negotiating risk and can the two sides feigned common. Ground on the issue of the bike stop. There was agreement on that at the December Council in two thousand seventeen but the smartest minds in London Dublin and in Brussels so far of manage to find the formulation. But in classic negotiation theory, both sides want to find that common. Ground on the consequences of not finding that common ground for all the reasons which served from Zinder extremely severe. So my hope would be that in the immediate days and weeks ahead. We will see progress in relation to the negotiations. But in December of two thousand seventeen there wasn't simply agreement reached on the might stop. That was also an undertaking. Given by Theresa May under pressure from Roden by ventures in the house of Commons. That would be a meaningful vote on the comes negotiations. And so I think we need to countenance. Just the negotiation risk, but ratifcation risk. And the reason that there is such Phibro speculation across the United Kingdom at the moment. Is that is no majority in parliament for any of the negotiation comes that are under contemplation and live admire Kim's characteristic British understatement. Tam under fire in suggesting that this will all be resolved. I have to say as we see in Scotland Hema, deuce. I have my doubts has because it seems to me that the Democratic Unionist Party me will not support their partners in the conservative party. When it comes to this issue of the characters relationship between Northern Ireland and the Republic, there are whole number of conservative MP's who've already declared they're not prepared to support the deal as it's under contemplation. And so the working sumptious donning street right knows seems to be that the labor party will step in and save Theresa me. And I have to say I am deeply deeply skeptical that you will see anything like the number of libra MP's that the conservative whip's office are presuming would support tourism in those circumstances actually tripping through the division lobbies and in that same. I think even if we were to see a breakthrough in the negotiations between the United Kingdom and Brussels in the coming weeks, then the drum moves to Hosa Commons. And at the moment, I don't see that as a parliamentary majority for any of. The proposals that actually on the table, and we should mention I should add onto you compliment to Kim's wonderful diplomatic polka faith shortly after Trump was elected. He tweeted that Nigel Farage should be the new best. But nobody. Even had this or read this tweet. Marvelous thing Freud that I wanna get into the constitutional devolution of the questions that are implied by this. But let's just start on the immediate. What the UP the Democratic Unionist Party which props up? The Theresa May government without them. There's no majority what that can sends with the check is plan and with the border agreement with the -cations keeping an open border implied. By the check is plan. What is the DP can send them? Why is this such a theological issue for conservative? Brexit is. I really has been a perfect storm of events menu. Remember that that? Theresa May became prime minister following the resignation of David Cameron after the Brexit referendum year in she decided to hold snap elections as a way of strengthening her negotiating position going into Brexit and had a disastrous result losing her parliamentary majority, and then becoming dependent on the DP for government at the same time. It's also worth noting that Northern Ireland has been without an assembly for over five hundred days. So at this critical time when we're discussing Northern Ireland's future. The only voice that's coming out is the voice of the Democratic Unionist Party, which is propping up Theresa May's government in London. And there really is no voice. Otherwise coming out of Belfast when I was in in Northern Ireland in may doing research on this report, I met with a DP Representative who had been very senior involved in these campaigns, and the way he articulated it was that the DP recognizes that Northern Ireland has special circumstances. But they don't want Northern Ireland to be given a special. Atis, and what the DP has always been very concerned about with the backstop is the idea that you would essentially create a border in the Irish Sea, and that you would be treating Northern Ireland separately from the rest of Great Britain in many ways what's offered in the backstop would be the best of both worlds. Economically, four Northern Ireland because they would be able to still participate within the EU single market and customs union, but they would be operating within the UK framework for the DP. This raises very unacceptable status issues for them in terms of the larger constitutional situation within the United Kingdom, and therefore has become an anathema to their political position. And you as an American air known European on this out to you assess the Trump administration's role in all of this because was mentioning the introduction that a traditional American administration would be trying to finesse and help. Inserted self constructively into these DeVos negotiations. That's not happening though. Is it? No, it's not. I mean, it's been unclear in some ways what the US position actually is. You had President Obama who of course, was very forward. Leaning in terms of supporting remain. He went to London several months before the Brexit referendum expressed American support for a strong UK within a strong EU suggested that the UK would-be at the back of the queue in terms of free trade negotiations with the US if it went forward with Brexit. Trump is taken a very different approach. He called Brexit. A great thing he has referred to the EU as a foe. And I think in its worst cases actually supportive of the weakening of the EU and potentially breaking countries away from the it's been surprising that the US has not been more involved in these negotiations on the face of it, particularly on the Northern Ireland side the. Of course for decades supported the Northern Ireland peace process, we had majority leader George Mitchell. Very actively involved in shepherding the Good Friday agreements, but I think the US really has has not playing a played a very active role. I think the US government has assessed that not in its interest to have the UK crash out with no deal that would be very damaging in geo-economic terms. The State Department has has made quiet Dhamar shes at various periods in the process to encourage progress towards a deal, but the the US really has has not played the role that we might see from some traditional US administrations. In terms of putting pressure on both sides in particular trying to to find a way forward on Northern Ireland. I should mention it's it's not just came his job was voluntarily gazumped by by trumpet when Trump was in Britain adjusted Boris Johnson would make a great prime minister. So he's he's he's gonna have in can. Either of those special. Kim, you'll one of the great claims of the Brexit campaign in the Brexit is was a post Brexit UK US trade deal big big free-trade agreement between the US and the UK clearly Britain wouldn't be in the position negotiate this in America wouldn't want to go see this until we knew the arrangements post Brexit. We knew exactly Trump did say one reasonable thing when he was in Britain about this which was if Britain is defacto in the customs union formally, but they factor in order to keep that average border open. Then it's going to be very hard negotiation with Britain, a separate trade deal that was a pretty reasonable point. Right. It what are the prospects for fuming? Check is is the basis for the divorce agreement one of the prospects there for for the great prize supposed to prize. Brexit named me a trade deal with. Erica is for the president of talk about this at each of the law, civil meetings tend to most recently in York about three or four weeks ago, and we are keen on trade agreement and the president has consistently. How keen he administration and how they will be ready to start negotiate you just as soon as we all we have this implementation. Period. Running from too much to thirty one December twenty twenty in which we can negotiate. I think we can even sign uniting you coat to in that period is actually implement agreements you call implemented until we have left everything at the end of December twenty twenty we've set up a trade investment working group, which is four times. Times. The folks and that is the structure in which we wanna go she eight when it happens. So everything is ready to go. Once we have left on that. We will start lose negotiations quickly. The scoop of negotations you'll right and just how we can go into of we didn't we have to set iron tariff levels. So we'll have to wait and see we'll have to wait and see where we get to in terms of the future relationship between the UK, and the EU trade deal we want and how close we are to irregular soul thought political with US takes twenty percent of British exports. So it's already our biggest single financial trading partner. There's huge potential for more including particularly in the whole services sector. So this will be a top priority of the government wants sweet out. At this get you to moment. But Douglas, I mean is it fair to say that if we did get into the position where technically the US, and the UK could stopped a big trade deal that would be an ideal Trumpian position. Which is we're bigger use mortar would it would be Britain played play. Hunting to disagree with Kim note because he has an eloquently described the position of government. But the position of the government is a post imperial fun to see, you know, let's be clear, I was the trade investment and foreign affairs minister in a previous British government and the idea that. Donald Trump is willing and waiting to do an ultra generous deal with the United Kingdom seems to me to be up to mystic to his most generous the fighters. Trigo shares are pretty unsentimental people. It comes down to earth, metallic and psychology. And if you look at the arithmetic, if you're sitting as a tree gauche eater with five hundred million citizens behind you as we do at the moment as part of the EU twenty eight then the deal that you're able to strike fundamentally different than if you're sitting with sixty five or seventy million consumers behind you. And at the same time, we're dealing with the president who go to link to on a promise of putting America first. So the idea that he is for reasons of sentiment historic reasons of the special relationship, desperate to deal that helps the United Kingdom seems to me to be consistent with of you. That speeding really there from the from the bricks of tears, which is that some home by leaving the European Union Britain will stem Toler in. Washington or in Beijing or in more school, and that we will somehow become a cane of buccaneering North Atlantic Singapore, and to my mind, the really is literally new evidence to that effect. Incidentally, even the so-called implementation, periods the nation in reality is going to be a pedia Juding, which a political declaration is translated into a legally binding treaty between the United Kingdom and the twenty-seven new CDs country is going to engage in a meaningful. We intrigue oceans with the United Kingdom until the new the character of the United Kingdom's relationship in terms of future trade with the U twenty-seven, Nardo sip. So I think the idea that immediately the beginning of April if we are in that scenario that the rest of the world is going to rush to Britain's door to sane free. Trade agreements is just another iteration of the conversation freak we were heating from the brakes tears two years ago that soon as brakes at happened. There was going to be gathering Russia. To do trade deals with the United Kingdom as a citizen of the United Kingdom. I might wish that was true. But I see perilously evidence that is going to be true. Let me just pick up on that fantasy theme. Because that's that one off at because it's not yet got all them -cations deal could involve kinds of unpopular things in Britain like having to import pleura NATO, initially say, chlorinated, chicken and Brits shutter. Yes. And winning the national. GM foods. It's exactly the fantasy theme is also extended to unto you've had very senior British Conservative politicians, Jacob Reese mug or as Johnson. Of course, Michael go to some extent talking very sort of slapdash fashion about what island could do to accommodate itself. To Britain's decision. Rees-mogg the other day said it we can have people on the board is checking people crossed the borders. Like we had during the troubles. Boris Johnson is talked of computers solving all that you don't need any sort of checks in the border. We can't actually crash out entirely of the customs union and keep that how this kind of. And of course, we've had the I wrecks talk while you should leave the EU to and just come in with us in our own customs union, which we would call the British Isles. I think we've heard that one before. You've seen this movie before you're sitting in a way more comfortable seat now. So, you know, much most secure country nevertheless to what degree is bringing up. Rather bad memories and changing the political climate in the Republic. It's a very big question in a sense. I mean on the one hand the relationship has clearly deteriorated in the last couple of years since since reasons June two thousand sixteen. We had a high point in bilateral relations, when Queen Elizabeth visited in two thousand and eleven and came to to Ireland and travelled around the country, and there was a a really strong, but after a relationship and personal relationships as well between the various teaching and a series of prime ministers uncertainly those relationships have been strained in the last two years. And of course, offense is taken by some of the remarks from some cabinet members on some leading lights within within the conservative party. However, I would say I think we've gotten to the point in Ireland where we're actually there's a desensitized to some of the nonsense going from some of those people. So you know, when Boris Johnson's father intervenes and says, well, if Irish people want to shoot each other, that's fine. At this point. I don't anybody's taking that sort of nonsense seriously. And likewise when. Boris Johnson wasn't the only one to talk about a technical solutions to the border question. I mean that was very serious line of toss within within the conservative party within the government. Custom maximum facilitation. So these are are quite serious ideas have been floated, but one by one they've all been batted away expect described as a cluster fac. That's that's a whole nother topic. Yeah. So so yes, it's -fensive. And yes, it sets back our relations. I mean, you're right. I mean, and as a country is a much more firstly economically successful place that was in nineteen Seventy-three when we joined the European Communities. We have learned to stand on our own two feet. I mean being part of the European Union. And the European project has given us as a nation a self confidence that did not exist heretofore on that has actually been amplified over the last few years in particular. So you know, what I actually currently has the fastest growing economy. European Union on fortunately at the UK economy has actually done very very significantly. So we have a sense of confidence about our economy about our society at our politics and nothing. No, no, no degree of insults. That might be flung at us by by certain individuals in Britain. Parts will will impact on that. And if anything, you know, we definitely feel feel a stronger more assured member of European Union as well. I mean, the word many in London who doubted the solidarity between EU Member States, and he said, oh, well, Berlin. And Paris when it comes down to choose London over dozen because of the strengthened size of of of the UK, but in reality as we have seen European solidarity on view, thus those countries who wished to remain within the European Union, the single market and the customs union will stick together defend the values and principles that underpin that union and an Ireland has benefited from that. And that's why many are surprised to this day. Even though we've been having these same conversations for at least twelve months around the border around the peace process and around this issue of backstop. All of the predictions about fragmentation about divide and conquer within the improven wrong. And in fact, Dobbins insistence every stage thought that there would be solidarity has proven to be to be correct. And I have absolutely no doubt that that will continue right to the end of this process because I want to send it was very gracious dismissing the insults, but one of the most profoundly disturbing distressing depressing aspects of British public debate over the last months has been the extent to which it has revealed, very senior British politicians, profound ignorance of relationships with our neighbors in Ireland, a lack of affinity and understanding with the fragility of the peace that was hard won and secured by politics and can surely be undone by politics unless the right steps are taken. And if I'm honest, I think it's revealing the cow. Of the motor conservative party. This used to be the conservative and Unionist Party. What we're witnessing ice believe in the United Kingdom today is the rise of English nationalism -rupt in the union giant, and actually what it's revealing is that many members of the conservative and Unionist Party because they still travel under that name have a cavalier disregard for the interests of the integrity of the United Kingdom and their minds. If the cost of so-called clean Brexit is the break-up of the United Kingdom, they're not to them as a price that they would being and that is I'm afraid of any mainstream opinion within the conservative party both in parliament and certainly in its membership across the country, and you've written a very good paper to through a company. This panel about the constitutional implications within Britain for this Douglas is referred to the Irish reaction. Listen to spoken about that. You have talk the tissue included. Of a referendum. United is certainly much. More live talk of a second Scottish referendum. I had in reference to Douglas's concerns about some of the ugliness of the debate in Britain. I've had. The acronym. Description of what Britain without Northern Ireland and Scotland would be which is format. United Kingdom of England Wales. F U K E W, which I think would be an act expression of some of the sentiment. We're talking about how likely is that in practice, though, the Scottish on the Scottish shown looking for referendum right now because they wouldn't win it, right? Well, I think there's a lot of referendum fatigue in Scotland right now, they of course, had a referendum in two thousand fourteen and as we were talking about earlier, I think we have learned that referendum. Do not answer these questions for generations. In fact, they continue to keep these these questions alive. So there is fatigue over that. I think having seen the messy -ness of Briggs divorce it highlights. In fact, how messy Scotland UK divorce would be. And also the discussion about Northern Ireland shows that if the UK is out of the customs union and single market and Scotland wanted to rejoin the EU you would then need to have some sort of hard border with Scotland in England as a result of that. So I think the questions have become a lot more complicated. In in Scotland, I think a lot of this is going to depend on how Brexit plays out people in Scotland voted, I think it was sixty eight percent to to remain. So there was sixty to sixty two percent. So there was overwhelming support in in Scotland for staying in certainly there is historically been a feeling in Scotland that they are being dictated. To by government in London that they don't necessarily support and share the same views with the one thing. I talk about in my paper that I think is is sort of wonky constitutional. But really matters is this question of where powers from Brussels are going to return when they come back to the UK. And this is in fact, become one of the big debates and Scotland that could motivate questions potentially for second independence referendum. When the Scottish parliamentary other developed governments were set up the way, the Scotland act was written was that a number of powers. We're going to be reserved to Westminster things like foreign affairs and trade in everything else was going to be devolved to Scotland so would towers come back from the EU like environment agriculture fisheries many in Scotland, particularly the Scottish National Party, but others say these powers reserved, and so they should be coming back to us, and this actually has gone to the constitutional court in the UK and is continuing to play out as a live issue as to who actually controls. These these powers if they are controlled by London for the sake of having. Single market within the UK on things like agriculture and fisheries you're going to have to deal with questions from the Scots. The Welsh the Northern Irish about how they are involved in these discussions in in London in terms of domestic policy making within the UK. Impractical therms this go to Chanel going to suddenly be waived into the EU, right? The Spanish gonna want the Catalans to see happening is going to be all kinds of forces discouraging. And from what I understand go to public opinion is paying to that. Do they really want this kind of? Reverse direction Brexit with all the sort of economic lion Douglas Kim away. But but I think Brexit has changed the calculation a little bit. I mean, I think from the Spanish perspective, if this was a constitutional process that you had a referendum in the UK and Scotland were to become independent through constitutional means that answer some of the questions about this illegal referendum in Catalonia couple years ago. And I think Brexit is is the UK leaving the EU and Scotland wanting to remain so that's a different question from Scotland seeking to become independent from the UK, and then trying to get a back door into the EU Scotland, I think you would have to reapply for membership. But given that they currently implemented all of the legislation. I think that would be a fairly easy case for them to make an I think opinion seems to be evolving somewhat in the European Commission and Spain and some of the others about this. This question Douglas is the scope you would well, I genuinely believe today the greatest threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom is not Scottish nationalism. Bingo. Schmo? We made our show is back in two thousand fourteen by a ten point margin. Forty five to fifty percent, the choice was to stay within the United Kingdom in the mind of the first minister, nNcholas sturgeon. She believes that Scotland did vote to remain as part of the bricks at referendum in two thousand sixteen would be the spark the probation that would spike support for independence up above fifty percents. And in fact to change metaphors that was the dog that never barked. We really have not seen any significant change in the opinion pools in the months since twenty third of June twenty sixteen and in that sense. I think there has been. Bill Clinton used to call a teachable moment as we've witnessed the attempts to try and. Come to terms with the break-up of a forty year union when contemplating the possibility of breaking up a three hundred year union between Scotland an England on the reality is that public opinion in Scotland at the moment remains opposed to independence, if you look again, objectively what were the reasons why Scots we made that choice? One of the reasons was economic that very clearly the nationalist were unable to make the case that there were credible Unsers on the currency on European membership as you describe but also on the fiscal position. Given the volatility of the old price each one of those issues of actually become more difficult, not more straightforward as a consequence of Brexit. So in that sense, I think nNcholas sturgeon note with stunning those difficulty said she was going to call a second referendum and salt that Monday and proceeded to lose twenty one of the jai-suk omens in the two thousand seventeen so I certainly wouldn't want to leave you with the impression that Scotland is chomping at the bit. For another referendum or indeed for independence, far from it. On the other hand my senses, if the nationalist are able to persuade people that there should be another referendum. They would fight the next referendum on economics. But on emotion on the inhospitability of being part of a little Britain at Saint of the United Kingdom, laid by the lakes of Boris Johnson, or Jacob re smog. And in that sense. I do think that that are very real threats to the integrity of the United Kingdom represented by the present government on the course that it's been sent. But I think Scott's at the moment have of you. That says if we've short ourselves in the foot, then let off leg. Stick with referendums from my end this radical, Saddam. One of which is a no deal Brexit and other which is the second people's vote for Britain to have a second bite of the apple came a lot of people and recent mentioned, the degree of unity talks has been pads underestimated sunny by the Brexit is being quite clear that are interested with the Member State involved here and that and leaving a club in sort of extreme scenario where we might be heading towards an ideal Brexit, which would not just damage Britain. They would damage I would damage Europe. Do you think some of sort of strong somewhat argued fairly rigid? European negotiators lines on the full freedoms of goods, if you've gotta have old four nine which is good services happened people think that if it comes to sort of a blinking who blinks first situation, the might be more flexibility in Europe, giving you your Brussels negotiating experience just for. So that very quickly. I mean, we are not on the other side from the Irish government, for example on these two of the board of the tween the Republican northern island. We're on the same side we all both commissioned to new hawed border between mobile on. So we'll try to work together to find a politically acceptable solution on that easy. One of courses is free trade deal of there's no question about what happens in the border. And so that's why these two of the plan B of the backstop is the one that's one outstanding. So this isn't the kind of episode obsession on your question. I'm personally not surprised at the way that negotiations. Unfolded. If we get into a new deal Brexit helped to come. We will survive, but it will be damaging to both sides the Europeans and to us obviously much much better than for if we can find a way through the reasons I explained. I'm hopeful that we come said ninety five percent of the deal is done the other tiles that we have to do is a political statement all the future which needs to be substantive and detailed, you know, to provide for the meaningful vote that before Mr. now so Cullens, but it's good to be a political decoration not a full legal remain, which we will then need to shoot afterwards. But. But it's difficult to see why given the disavowed any other approach why shouldn't be possible to reach that political outcome at the special European consul to some European Council. So I'm hopeful mystic. We will see what the president. We'll see what happens next. We'll see what happens. And you've got an admirable assumption that other people share rationality to this. But of course, the key active here note, necessarily weighing up things in a judicious manner. My question is whether that also applies to the Europeans loosen. The also rich experience in Europe the assumption by the British many people in Britain has been as more sympathetic to a pragmatic deal would be Muslim prophetic to something at hawk that would suit Britain. And whereas Matt crawl is. Financial on you have rules of a club. We're not going to bend them. Mike that change same questions. I pose to to the best of might that change in extremes of the game of chicken circumstances as we approach the deadline. I think Merkel's a great friend of of the UK and going back to the sort of the. The slow motion. Car crashes I see which led to the referendum in the UK. All through that period. Where David Cameron was trying to negotiate some sort of compromise. Some sort of deal that could work for the UK would allow him to go back and have this referendum. But but convince voters to to stay in Merckel held joint competent meetings with the British government ministers were I mean, there was huge intensity in that relationship. So she is. I mean, I I genuinely can say I think they're probably nobody around the table and European Council. Ajaria she is to to see what has unfolded. But to to interpret a willingness to compromise on the fundamental pillars of the European Union. The four freedoms I think is to grossly misunderstand her. She is totally wedded to the free movement of people, and she is totally committed to maintaining the integrity of the single market and the customs union, so that is not just a French position that is fundamentally German position. I've listened for the last two years two people in London sang I yeah. But the German car manufacturers, you know, they're going to they're going to lean on the German government. Under is going to be some sort of a compromise last minute dealer end around this. And I think that that's completely wrong. And I think it's been proven to be wrong. And frankly, Markle has face them down at every state and has made it clear, I mean has effectively issued communicates to two German industry to say, you know, the single Mark. Is non-negotiable, and it is a fundamental principle on Germany really sees itself as the custodian of those ideals, those European ideals. So if anything the risk of fragmentation makes commitment stronger from German point of view. So no is the answer. I don't see any wavering on that. And I don't see pressure coming us has been -ticipant. It'd in London at the beginning of the process pressure coming from Germany and Paris on Dublin to to somehow watered down the line which around the backstop and the border. That's not going to happen. I think people are really misunderstanding. What the European project wanted means to to France and Germany if they think that's going to happen because discussing lunch, but even if Michael were paying that role that some in Britain hope hope she would be guarantee, she'll even have a government will be in government by twenty. Twenty. This is a problem for Europe as a whole, which is the definition of her influence on power and her weakened physician in Germany. There's no question about thought. And also, I mean Macron in a sense emboldened has a strong mandate a big majority and parliament put, but is really really struggling opinion polls. And now there's this test case in terms of what they're going to do for the European elections in this sort of liberal alliance that he that he's pulling together. There are a lot of variables. But I think the one thing that is certain is the European the existing twenty-seven, including some countries that have had pretty controversial disputes at European Council level, hungry Poland. And I mean, they have all pretty fundamentally been unified around the four freedoms. I think that that is set to continue. So yes, I mean Merckel is a pragmatic. Yes. She wanted to deal with the UK, but it will be a deal on at the terms of the basic fundamental principles. Of the European Union. Let's get to the other extreme scenario. Possibly for most types of people in this room, benign extreme scenario, which is much less today does bathroom is the largest much in recent history. Although it's worth pointing out that the last largest match was against the Iraq war, and that and that didn't work, but nevertheless, this is seven hundred thousand people. In order to get that disease in REO of a second referendum. You're going to need one of the leaders of the two main parties to support it on yoga need. Jeremy Corbyn have a road to Damascus moment or else in some sort of scenario to be ousted and replaced by somebody else, which I think is probably even less likely at this point than having a second referendum. What are the chances in your view that pro European members of labor party like you're picking in politics component to Copenhagen say look three out of four? Labour voters want Britain to remain in Europe. These your people. To put it very crudely one point six million more young voters in the British electorate than the were two years ago, and the young tend to be more pro Europe and put it even more crudely seven hundred and fifty thousand fewer old voters because of mortality that the opinion polls show that it would probably win. Trusted. But nevertheless, there's a strong argument you can make to cope in that. You've just got to get with a tight here. What are the chances that is going to make headway in the coming weeks? Really think the organ that? You would come as news to Jeremy Corbyn that has shifted the position that he's adopted the position that was carefully new she to that liberty conference after many hours of negotiation was the option of a second vote was kept on the table. But only in circumstances where I had been dead looking parliament. And then the option of general election had been rejected. And I think in terms of those seven hundred fifty thousand people in the streets of London at the weekend. That actually is the the only credible by which the operation will be fulfilled, which would be that we do see all of the possible alternatives. Even the deal negotiated voted down in the his accordance towards the end of this year at the very beginning of next year. The labor party naturally is the party of position at that point agitating for general election deliver member that is still the term parliament act, which is a coincidence of Alaska. Mission government on them being unsuccessful in precipitating generation. I don't I find it personally, very hard to believe that even conservatives angry with Theresa May over the Deel that she brings back from Brussels are likely to walk into the division. 'lobbies? If the consequence of walking into the division themselves in front of the British people anytime soon, I think both the Democratic Unionist Party on the conservative party are deeply fearful of losing general election to Jeremy Corbyn, and so this parliament will probably last bit longer than quite a lot of the heated. Komen tree at the moment suggests but induced circumstances in some ways the question is as much for tourism is Jeremy Corbyn if harp proposals have been rejected if parliament is deadlock, she won't countenance agenda election could be circumstances in which she said, well, we've tried are based parliament is deadlocked. We have to take this back to the people. And at that point have a second vote that would certainly require the support of the U twenty seven in terms of unanimous commitment to extend. The article fifty timetable, I think that would be forthcoming in those circumstances. But it's a huge if on Europe slightly right in Europe survey shin, which is in a parliamentary democracy, which notwithstanding all of discussions of referenda Britain remains you need the principal position or the principal party of government to move to create circumstances in which they can referendum could take place. And right now, neither the leader of the liberal party. Nor the leader of the conservative party is particularly minded to go down that route and the other question, of course, is what the referendum question is. I mean is it a taker leave the negotiated deal or is it a second referendum on whether or not you want to go forward with with Brexit. Yeah. I mean, I presume that. An evil remain a- an evil scheming Machiavellian remain Ramona cooled. Would actually sort of ranged from stance in parliament parliament, does this the prime minister count have a general election, and this you just set out is okay. We'll put it back to the people in which in which case what would the question. Well, I think the only circumstances you get to that question is performed constituent crisis. And you can clearly imagine circumstances in which that point the prime minister, if it's still Theresa me says, well, let's put my deal to the people, and they'll tentative being new I have to say, I would be very surprised if the European come so at that point was prepared to extend the article fifty process, if it was only to ratify the deal that had been done rather than remain. But see that maybe a scenario, and I certainly think that would be a low voices Gitane within the lever porty to avoid that being the choice because the labor party will already have rejected two resumes deal and clearly doesn't want to see new so. Leave the liberal party and something of a dilemma to to campaign for if that referendum came to pass. So I think you can conceive of circumstances where you could have conservatively proposing a referendum as a choice between hard deal on no deal on a labor party, you polish in leading the position arguing that point for remain versus the prime minister's deal. The in the in the oldest parliamentary democracy in the world. I think we very difficult for prime minister to take a deal that's been rejected in the house of Commons and put it to the I think it would be just a bizarre scenario. I think much more likely that there will be motion. I mean, if this place is and if the divas rejected in parliament that there will be an interim ocean of no confidence in intrigues may that she'll be deposed as leader. And the DP will do business with bars Johnson or whoever to make them prime minister and have a second bite at the cherry. That's my prediction in which case. I would predict it to be one point four million people on the next month. Not seven points a fear. When I think that is every possibility to resume will be the prime minister in the next few weeks and months, but I don't think we should read that as meaning those going to be a change of government generation, there's a very credible scenario that we see a change of prime minister. But both the UPN the conservative party resisting the option of going to the country. Do you have not very subtly hinted at this in the last few weeks? They have actually expressed an opinion on a preference with an leader the conservative party. So so this deeper into the pope is problem. Let's just sort of go with that scenario. A DP backed of the pro Brexit Boris Johnson type government that the is socially progressive to put it mildly. It's been described as the political of the seventeenth century. It is his positions on various issues, not a not Enchaine with emergent public that kind of scenario is also constitutional breakdowns Norio. Isn't it isn't that insupportable? And I don't think it's an overstatement to say that we are in uncharted waters. And we will be even more on charted waters in circumstances where parliament rejects all of the options, and as I say every one of this nuncios that were describing one is life slightly scratching one's head. Thinking kingdom couldn't get to that police could it in a few weeks. We could be an exactly that place. So isn't that amaz- of alternate Trump card with Brexit is that actually, rob? Bag government being formed. We could have a general election, and it could be copen the next prime minister in which cases item ideal is check as copen. And that's that's a mo- persuasive argument than the UP short short lived Brexit here coalition, but the position of the brakes tears is that three of folks one because they will be able to vote in the deal and they vote for the fixed parliament to be revoked. And so in that sense that will certainly be threat made by the whips, but they'll call their bluff that point I think is important to recognize this is a psychodrama an civil war engulfing the Bush conservative party. Rationality only has a very small part to plea in the drama is unfolding within the conservative party. Right. I think it's important as wild understand the fear of the hardline breaks tears. Their greatest fear is for example, trees amaze concession or proposal at the council the European Council last week to extend the transition. Period. That's so that's that's the exit disaster scenario for them. So they don't particularly want to deal. They're quite happy to end up with no deal because it's better than the alternative, which could be a prolonged transition that ultimately might lead to a soft breaks to the UK staying in the single market customs union, and that to them is not Brexit. So they are totally ideologically opposed to that. And I think it's it's fairly predictable that they would rather a no deal scenario than a scenario that allows for potentially an election in a couple of years that would lead to even potentially in other random or soft breaks, they don't want. And that was I mean, there was a survey that came out a couple of weeks ago, saying eighty seven percent of the people in Northern Ireland who supported remains said the peace process was a price to pay to ensure brags that happened. Cheerful throat. Just just very quickly a couple of questions one for you. Can you do a lot of Jove as Britain's Tope diplomats? Putting the best face on what Britain's up to would it. Would it be fat to say that more difficult now than it than it did occur than it was at era new career? What ways do you have to manage the dissonance of of the demands on your on your role aging foster? You're you're doing. Well. Thank you. Look, it's this is supposed to privileged fusion about two states. It's it's the best job in system. So I like to be a festive time to be in America. The Brexit story back in UK is at an extra layer of complexity. But I will commit on. And thank you feel considered. I'm fine. Identing we've fulfilled as gold of dramatizing, but we have detoxified it. So thank you very much to the panel. Podcast is produced in cooperation with the Brookings Institution. Thanks this week to Brookings for providing this audio. If you haven't yet, please take a moment to share the law, fair podcast and give us a review and five star rating. Wherever you found us, the podcast is edited by gen patio and our music is performed by Sophia Yan, and as always thanks for listening.
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