32 Burst results for "Bremmer"
"bremmer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Virus Plus Ian bremmer of the Eurasia group looks at the global impact But first we hear from the Doctor Who's been on the front lines in the battle against COVID-19 from the beginning Doctor Anthony Fauci director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases We know that it's here in the United States Which I actually you know not wasn't anything brilliant on my part but we predicted that when you see it spreading throughout countries in Europe and Asia obviously you're going to see it here in the United States The real big question that we don't know now is how is it going to fare in a world and the world being our country in a world in which Delta is the dominant variant That's going to be a very interesting situation to watch All the way back on Monday you said as you suggest you know it's going to come the United States You were right Let me ask you a different question Community spread Is it inevitable at this point Do we already have community spread in this country Because that may affect questions of travel restrictions right We absolutely have community spread in this country We have community spread with the New York Minnesota case Where someone was in Minnesota went to a conference in New York Got infected and people with whom he had contact with also got infected We don't know how many of them but there's no doubt that this community spread What is the timeline on finding out the clinical effects of this Because when we talk to people on Monday they said about a month We should have a better sense of the clinical effect How severe it is How contagious it is Is that still holding because I saw some reports that maybe it's going to take longer No I think you're going to get an inkling of it within a period of three weeks to a month And you're going to get a very good determination of it a little bit longer But you can sort of get a hint of what's going to be coming out in about three weeks or so Talk about treatments because we have a couple of treatments One from Merck one from Pfizer that once somebody as I understand has the disease in the early stages you could take a pill as it were When will we have approvals do you expect of those Therapeutics Well the FDA is given an emergency use authorization to the oral medication from Merck The mound Napier the Pfizer one is being submitted for consideration for an emergency use authorization It's going to be a combination of getting authorized but also making enough product to have an impact And that's the other important issue is what is the scalability of these medications So Doctor Fauci let's turn now to what our possible defenses are here You said getting vaccinated boosters number one defense But obviously testing and sort of having intelligence as it were about where this disease is is children helpful we heard that President Biden was tested I guess three times for COVID because he had what he called a frog in his throat What are we doing on testing And are these rapid tests really that accurate Well the rapid test of fundamentally antigen tests they are not as sensitive as the PCR test But if you do them frequently enough the lack of sensitivity or relative sensitivity is really overcome by the fact that you ultimately will get it Get it being make a diagnosis if you test enough More than just once And that's the reason why when you talk about doing it you want to do it not only it may be a couple of days in a row but a day every other day something like that But they are very very useful Because even though they aren't as distinctly sensitive as the PCR they're ready availability Their ability to quickly get an answer and to do it very often because of the quantity of them that makes up for the relative lack of sensitivity I'm sure no test is a 100% effective There's always some margin for error if I can put it that way in a test If you can compare PCR on the one hand with the antigen and the other what is the difference What's the degree of difference in the two And is there a bias toward false positive or pulse negative When you have a less sensitive test the likelihood of there being a false negative is there much more so than PCR PCR is highly sensitive Sometimes that sensitivity can give you a false positive But most of the time the sensitivity and the specificity are very good for the PCR They're rapidity with which you can do the antigen is a great advantage But because it is not as sensitive you could get what was called a false negative Namely it's there but it's in low enough concentration that the antigen test does not pick it up That would be considered a false negative Doctor Fauci you have said repeatedly the best defense is to get vaccinated And if you've been vaccinated then get boosters But let's talk about a segment of the population that can not get vaccinated right now And that is the under 5 because I'm hearing from a lot of parents I suspect you are as well A real eagerness to have that possibility Where are we Well we've done to test during in the process of testing kids from 5 to two years old and from 6 months up to two years Those tests are ongoing right now We likely will get an answer in the sense of getting enough data to evaluate it by the first quarter of 2022 When the FDA approves that I can't say because I don't want to get ahead of the FDA but when you're dealing with children that young there's always an extra degree of care and sensitivity to the vulnerability of children So we'll have enough.
"bremmer" Discussed on Bad Science
"Ten breasts and then dive up to one thousand nine minutes. So they're breathing is a very different process but they have to be thinking about okay. I'm running out of oxygen. Here have to go back to the surface to breathe. Because if they didn't do that they basically would die. How was the guy breathing. Because i did see a tank on every question. Yes he was free diving. And so i was just holding his breath holding his breath. He had some skills. So what was the point of the snorkel then because when that get filled with water. I don't know anything. Because i don't know anything inch an introduction to snorkeling this snow. Who is is what you use when you're going along with the surface if you had to constantly lift your head out of the water debris that'd be rose frustrating so a snorkel basically just gives you the capacity to hold your head in the water into breath. But you're right. You know it can be pretty dangerous if you dive down to depth with your snorkel still in your mouth. There are a couple of times where he had it in his mouth and he diving down. Obviously the snow cooking get filled up. And you don't want to go down on a breath run out of all the that you have come up and try and spit load of water out with a sequel. Taking it out is actually the safe way to do it. So there you go. Kids learnt so good question. Todd you're going to be an ex bill snorkeling by the end of this podcast. It sounds like what you're saying. Is that this wall street lawyer guy is wrong. No he's he's he's not wrong until as you could see trying to keep up with these animals like will you know with this drone footage in this footage of them underwater. They might look them. Moving kinda slave they are not moving sleigh that cruising along and they can just do that disappear in say makes more sense to go along the surface with your snorkel and then dive down to try and get close to them but he has got. Yeah he has got a lot of balls to. I'm getting the water westbound wells. It definitely something that. I'm just like god. They're amazing by the same time right. A very scientific term. He's got a lot of balls or we're gonna take a quick break and we'll be right back bremmer that last vacation. You took or that last brunch. You had with your friends knowing that a once in a century pandemic was about to hit us. Oh wait you didn't see it coming. And that's just it. The cove in nineteen pandemic showed us. How a microscopic virus could up end our lives.
The Cost of the 20-Year War in Afghanistan
"Leaving afghanistan was the right call but it may haunt biden and the us forever by ian bremmer. Bremmer is a foreign affairs columnist and editor at large at time the last week saw the unceremonious end to the longest military adventure in american history. The botched withdrawal from afghanistan is the first major foreign policy crisis of the biden administration and surely the largest since nine eleven it is also largely self inflicted. The failure lies not in the decision to exit afghanistan. But in the way the us went about leaving indeed the decision to leave made initially by trump and ratified by biden remains strategically sound but as the tragic events of the past week of shown making the right decision as one thing carrying it out. Well is an entirely different story. It is a failure that could cost president biden and america more than they bargained for. Why was withdrawal. The right call biden inherited a broken peace process and the prospect of a renewed conflict with a strengthened taliban. If he reneged on trump's commitments this is not to say that his hands were inextricably tied he could have chosen to continue the fight however as the record shows and he expressed clearly in his address to the nation on august sixteenth biden himself has long believed that the us should draw down. Its presence in afghanistan for several reasons. He's right the mission. The american people were sold was accomplished. The war. that followed was unwinnable on october. Sixth two thousand one president bush issued an ultimatum to the taliban shutdown al qaeda's base of operations closing their training facilities and hand over osama bin laden. The taliban refused
Biden's Botched Afghan Exit Is a Disaster
"One of the great beltway. World-weary nobody bremmer called me. Partisan yesterday for speaking the absolute truth that this is all on one hundred percent. Joe biden the simpering leftist. Appeasement crowd has been out saying that. This is not joe. Biden's fault it's donald trump's fault. Mike pompeo sign that agreement. Mike pompeo was on fox. news yesterday. laying down the complete and utter and perfectly persuasive rebuttal to that nonsense seven months in office. They've been there seven months to have kept the twenty five hundred american soldiers. Five thousand nato troops in american airpower that we had agreed to keep their until an agreement had been negotiated between the afghan government and the taliban on power-sharing which foresaw anticipated a partition of the country into taliban zones and into free zones totally overrun. You got a week ago. By the way in konduz very well documented in the washington post and a report that i linked at hughhewitt dot com on my twitter account. But let me read to you. The wall street journal editorial president biden's statement on saturday. Washing his hands of afghanistan deserves to go down as one of the most shameful his history by commander in chief at such a moment of american retreat as the taliban closed in on kabul. Mr biden's in a confirmation of us. Abandonment that absolves himself of responsibility deflected blame to his predecessor and more or less invited the taliban to take over the country with that statement of capitulation the afghan military's last resistance collapsed taliban fighters captured kabul president. Ghani fled the country. While he was frantically tried to evacuate americans the jihadist us toppled twenty years ago for sheltering osama bin laden will now fly their flag over the us embassy building on the twentieth anniversary of nine eleven.
"bremmer" Discussed on The Lawfare Podcast
"To never say anything. Negative about trump even as the administration is rolling out these increasingly harsh sanctions. And clearly he's positioned himself now as an ally of trump against trump's perceived enemies meaning the deep state the american intelligence community and the democrats. I mean putin then goes on fox news the day the same day as the summit and basically lays out that this is a. He's an agreement with trump on. What's actually constraining him preventing him for pursuing the kind of agenda russia. That the both want. Well what is that agenda i. Also that's what i did. I don't understand. That's what i didn't understand about the summit period and from what i was able to glean. I think the russians didn't really understand why the summit was happening. Either you had peskov putin's press spokesman saying on the eve of the summit. We don't know what this is about. There's no set agenda. They're just gonna. They're going to have a free willing discussion. It was such a you know it's also the way both sides have now portrayed it after the fact is that they prevented a war which we knew wasn't going to happen anyway. That was the singapore summit. No no no. I know i'm just give me a hard time There it's a new part is it's good to prevent wars. I appreciate that. I think that it is clear that trump had more that he actually wanted this meeting that putin did which is a trump wants to legitimate. Clean election right that he he won fair and square. As you said putin to get that validation as telling of course it is and of course. I mean to the extent that further support might be forthcoming. I don't think that trump would be bothered by that. He's made very clear that he was welcome. Russian support very interesting in the mueller investigation would welcome Sort of a joint. Us russia cybercentre. Meanwhile on the entire cyber coordination office in the white house no longer exists under bolton. I mean cyber by far the most important issue that we have to deal with with the russians and it wasn't really talked about the elections. I'm talking about their tax on. Us critical infrastructure. Now these are all real problems and yet. I don't see putin winning. I mean a lot of people do He's making us look stupid. That's true but that's enough. isn't it. well. I mean maybe enough for putin. His approval ratings a lot lower than they've been at any point since he's been president down low sixties and you know he is. I do believe he's a master tactician. I don't a poker player. I don't think the chess player. I don't think he thinks long-term a long-term he's getting eaten by the chinese Long-term i'm in the personally although well. No i mean mean you can argue. But i mean i. I think the united states with the world's reserve currency in a great geopolitical position the world's largest food producer energy producer and universities. Chinese wanna come to and all the resume we have the great puppet videos which the chinese knock off but they're nowhere near as good. Go ahead and plug the puppet show up at show. Everyone should have a puppet show called puppet regime. that's right. There is not a chinese puppet yet. Chinese president papa because the president's boring as a puppet putin puppet puppet zakar burke puppet there will soon be moved kim jong un opposite kim jong un puppet all these things have favorite puppet peps. Who is who is a little creepy to. I haven't seen that one of these new. We just rolled him out. He's actually does a dating application with mark zuckerberg It's a call. It's called down his book as as it would be but we were talking about. This is the deteriorating right. we were accelerate. We were talking about How putin's not doing all that well and i mean. Us me is russian influence increasing or decreasing in the world. Right now overall. My argument would be decreasing really interesting. I you know. I've always been in agreement with you on this. But i don't know you saw romney on me off. I just. I was in brussels last week on the sidelines of the nato summit and seeing the europeans just freaking out and trying to their well no they're trying to keep it together and say it's okay. It's okay you know. Transatlantic values reimagining the transatlantic relationship. All these fluffy buzzwords meanwhile trump is just taking a wrecking ball to nato to the british government to the eu. And in the meantime putin is host. That week hosted The jordanians the israelis the iranians who i mean coppola's snuff and the world cup. Yeah so a lot for no question. I mean i would still rather be the chinese work with the europeans. I mean the the russians absolutely have a constellation of relatively marginal and marginalized leaders that they can work with really effectively but the fact is that the russian economy is tiny and deteriorating their infrastructures falling apart and they have to see by the way speaking of the world cup and infrastructure the day after the world cup ended there was torrential downpour in volgograd and washed away basically all of the ground and like the stadium. The brand new stadium almost collapsed the day after the world coming. You know they but that's also so so timken stadium right but this is also It's such a perfect metaphor for for russia and the way putin sees things right you just have to get through another day. You just have to make it to the end of the world cup and then we'll figure it out and then the stadium collapses example we made through its fine. We just gotta survive. But and that's the thing. And and i i also think that that's the way the europeans think about trump right now But if you ask me who. I'm betting on long term. I'm betting on the americans and betting on the chinese. I betting on the rush. This is exactly the point that that russia is a weak country in many ways in terms economically certainly no match for the united states not a real competitor to the united states. And all of these ways that you're talking about yet. But then you have the us president confirming and propping up putin very publicly in the summit. And you could say well. There was nothing really lost or gained here in terms of real policy changes But if anything was gained is that trump looked weak so the us looked weak and putin looked much stronger. And you know much more strutting as a global leader. I think it's clearly true that if you are the world's only superpower you can do a lot more damage to yourself than other countries can do to you. And that was certainly true with the massive over reaction to nine eleven. That is certainly true with the own goal That we've had with in things like guantanamo And i mean you know the way. The financial crisis happened bernie. Madoff you name it right either ways that the americans have lost a lot of influence in the ability that we have to propagate our model internationally trump is another one of those things. But that's very different from saying that the russians are really gaining. I think they gain in terms of perceptions. I think the person that really loses here is trump in other words a knife. It's not the united states. I think that this really makes trump more vulnerable as the investigations. Go on and they've not even started to affect the trump administration directly yet they will and so the fact that trump is doing things that legitimizes the single most mortal threat to constraining his presidency..
Brandi Brimmer, Spelman College Black Union Widows and the Battle for Survivors Benefits in Post-Civil War America
"In college week black union widows had trouble claiming their benefits after the civil war. I'm dr lynn. Pascarella president of the association of american colleges and universities and today on the academic minute brandy brimmer associate professor in the department of history discusses their postwar battle after the american civil war. Newly freed black women made up one of the largest groups of union widows across the south yet their struggle for recognition by the federal pension bureau remains an understudy dimension of the war and its aftermath. My research analyzes the processes by which black women in eastern north carolina their views a citizenship in worthiness to the us pincher bureau their petitions for survivors benefits and the first person testimony of those who supported them painting vivid picture of their survival strategies free labor society in claiming the pensions to which they were in principle entitled. These women challenge the bureau's definition of union widowhood and expand the boundaries of us citizenship. The pension bureau distributed monetary resources to widows children and other dependent relatives of soldiers through a legal structure that required proof of marriage in evidence of war related that since marriages of enslaved people were neither authorized nor effectuation through legal routes. It was nearly impossible for formerly enslaved women to secure pension benefits federal lawmakers eventually address this problem through the supplementary pension act of july fourth eighteen sixty four which retroactively recognize the marriages formulates lay people within the pension system still a tedious and complicated application limited economic resources and competing definitions of what constituted. A legal marriage made security pension difficult. Maintaining they're standing on the pension roster could be just as intense scrutiny over how a widow earn wages notions of what constituted a proper family and sexual respectability became central points of contention at the end of the war. Freed women across the south said about filing petitions for survivors benefits with great frequency. They rested their claims on their contributions. To slavery's demise and their loved ones military service shining the light on their struggle for recognition underscores black women's legal acumen and understanding of the pension bureau as an arena of activism and redress. That was brandy bremmer of spelman
Avoiding war in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict
"It wherever you listen to podcasts. The Armenia Azerbaijan fighting could spiral into a larger regional conflict by Ian Bremmer. Intense fighting has erupted nagorno-karabakh a small enclave in the southern Caucasus mountains setting the entire region on edge. This is a fight primarily between Armenia and Azerbaijan two former Soviet republics with long-held grievances over land. The volve of Russia Turkey and others raises the stakes for where a war might be headed. An essence, this is a story of a powerful. Changing history by drawing arbitrary lines on a map that would later spark conflict. The states of Armenia and Azerbaijan were pulled into Moscow or and became part of the Soviet Union in the nineteen twenties though nagorno-karabakh, a mountain region about the size of Delaware was dominated by Armenians. Matt makers made it part of the Jani Soviet republic for decades are Mian complaints about the region's status were ignored and in the final days of the USSR war erupted tens of thousands were killed and more than one million were forced from their homes. A Russian brokered system in nineteen, ninety, four left nagorno-karabakh as part of Azerbaijan but ethnic Armenians with backing from the Armenian government drove most Azerbaijanis from the territory and declared it an independent republic. Low level fighting has continued over the years and an eruption of violence in two thousand, sixteen killed at least two hundred people. There is no peace treaty and nothing has been resolved. In recent years, the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan have sent positive signals. Her budget president and Armenia's prime minister opened the first ever military hotline between the two countries and twenty eighteen and talks brokered by Russia France and the United States. Produced a joint statement and Twenty nineteen that appeared to set the stage for a treaty. But momentum was lost and an eruption of fighting this summer led to popular demand in both countries for a military reckoning. The likely never know who fired the shot that ignited these latest clashes, but dozens of soldiers and some civilians have been killed Armenia and Azerbaijan have each declared martial law outsiders are scrambling to put out the fire UN secretary general, Antonio Terrace as called for a ceasefire. The web of foreign ties in this story is complicated Turkey's president wretched type air to on eager for an opportunity to boost his popularity and shift. The subject from his country's struggling economy fully backs is fellow Turkic Muslims in Azerbaijan while others call for talks air to one insists that Azerbaijan must take matters into its own hands to Armenia occupation of the disputed region. Vladimir Putin's Russia has maintained relations with Azerbaijan and sold weapons to both countries but Russia has a military base in Armenia and is bound by treaty to defend Armenia in war. This means that as in Syria and in Libya is ongoing civil war Russia and NATO member Turkey have A. Interests here Iran which borders both Armenia and as her Badgen has offered to mediate politically active ethnic Armenian populations in both. France and the United States bring those governments into the push for negotiations. Adding to the sense of urgency to halt the fighting nagorno-karabakh is a corridor for pipelines that transport oil and gas from the Caspian. Sea to the international marketplace. If the current clashes explode into full blown war, the damage could be much greater than in the nineteen nineties. This war would be waged with twenty first century, heavy weapons provided by Russia and Turkey. Air To
Bahrain follows UAE to normalise ties with Israel
"Friday president trump announced that Bahrain would recognize Israel and the two nations would normalize relations. This comes just weeks after a similar move from the United, Arab Emirates what to make of it. All I'm joined again by Zanny Minton beddoes and we slaughter and Ian Bremmer in put this in context for us what does this mean? Why did it happen? What does it mean? Well two big things that people need to come to terms with the first. Is that Israel Palestine is considered close to the most important conflict in the region. It is for the Palestinians when you talk to the Maradas with the Saudis, the Bahrainis, the Kuwaitis you'll talk to you about their concerns about Iran they'll talk to you about diversification away from fossil fuels and the difficulties that they'll talk to you about domestic radicalism, all of these sorts of things. And so as a consequence, you no longer have a veto on if you don't get peace with Israel Palestine, you can't move on geopolitics. The second point is the united. States had long attempted to be seen as some kind of honest broker between Israel and Palestine when we're anything but Israel's our best ally in the region, the Palestinians particularly agree with we have problems with and so you know it's interesting trump's first trip as president outside the United States was to Saudi Arabia and then to Israel and those are the two places where he has the best personal relations and that's where they really drove. So yeah, you had the effort to. Talk about peace with Israel and Palestine where the Palestinians weren't even engage a big conference in. Bahrain. Now, you've got big announcements in relation. I think especially from you and I talking to jared through this that was kind of the game all along I I'm not in any way surprised by this. And we. A friend of mine WHO's from the Middle East very knowledgeable about the says what's really going on here this is this is the post American Middle East that is countries like. Israel UA Bahrain Saudi Arabia saying we're GONNA make our own alliances to defend ourselves against the the real threat that we feel as he was saying, which is Iran and we know the Americans aren't going going to help us. So we need we need to band together. Is that part of the dynamic. Afraid, I think that is right that again Obama wanted out of the Middle East. If you if you think about the direct line from his refusal to engage in Syria. And that's actually an area where he his policies and trump's have been closer than than other areas. But I also think you have to think about this in the context of us. Domestic Politics Donald Trump. Has Two modes he can be the fearmongering president or he can be the dealmaking president who delivers and if we're thinking about October surprises up for this election, what he would dearly love is to actually have a treaty or agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which really would redraw the map of the Middle East and the conventional wisdom is the Saudis aren't ready but obviously, the UAE in Bahrain are stalking horses and and Bahrain would not have been able to do this without Saudi approval. So it's probably a low chance, but there is a real chance at least of a framework agreement in which Saudi Arabian Israel would would normalize relations in return for something more something bigger on the Palestinian sought.
When Covid Subsided, Israel Reopened Its Schools. It Didn’t Go Well.
"Since its debut and twenty seventeen, the Chinese APP tick tock has become one of the fastest growing social media tools with more than eight hundred, million active users. The APP lets users make short videos that are often shared across the Internet, but Tiktok isn't all fun games for months. Now, a lot of the attention about the APP has been focused on the national security concerns and the collection of user data, and as a result, the platform has been banned in India, by multiple branches of the US military and by Wells Fargo employees most recently however, president trump took aim at tiktok himself by threatening to ban the APP. We're looking at Tiktok we may be banning TIKTOK. We may be doing some other things, a couple of options, but a lot of things are happening. So we'll see what happens but we are looking at a lot of alternatives with respected dictum. Those remarks were before reports surfaced that Microsoft was pursuing a deal to buy TIKTOK in a press conference at the White House yesterday president trump claimed Microsoft or any other company would have to wait until September fifteen to acquire the APP and would be expected to give a percentage of the profit from the sale to the US Treasury. Joining me now is Graham Webster editor of digit China Project at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and a fellow at New America Graham thanks for being with us. Thanks for having me. And Cowan Rosenblatt is a youth and Internet cultural reporter for NBC, News. Dot Com callen thanks for being with us as well. Glad to, be here. Cowen who is the average tiktok user? The average tick tock user really is is a dynamic question because there is a huge range of different people who are using the APP but I'd say the most common person you're gonNA find is someone who is either at the tail end of high school or College who is definitely a solidly in generation the Gen Z. and he was using me APP mostly for fun to do dance challenges trends an engaged with communities that serve to their world. Graham. All of that sounds pretty basic I mean it doesn't sound like there's anything to be concerned about so far what type of data does tiktok collect from its users Graham? We'll TIKTOK is like a lot of social media companies these days It's using an AI driven or machine learning driven algorithm to figure out which content to to individual users. So to get this accomplished, they pay attention to obviously whatever you post that also you know what posts on your feed you look at how long you look at them where your device location is They also tried to track individual users like many apps do by looking at things like screen size and operating system and of course, they have a fair amount of information about your social graph, your your connections to friends and other people that you follow. And so what were some of the concerns around the data collection that way Graham given that it feels like there's a lot of, as you mentioned, other social media platforms and advertisers and the like that are tracking everything that we do already. Why? Why is Tiktok being highlighted here and banned in some of the institutions that we mentioned at the top Well, the basic reason is that tick tock is owned by a Chinese company named Bite Dance and they're a fairly new social media company. They had a breakout a few years ago in China with an APP called junior Tokyo that that is a you know an algorithm, IQ news feed and this is China's first big breakout internationally in terms of social media APPS and really getting take-up in in many different countries around the world not just the United States. So there's A concern that data collected by Tick Tock could end up in the hands of the Chinese company or the Chinese government and wild tick. Tock says that it stores all US user data in the US or in Singapore we don't really have a good way as a society right now to check that type of thing and to make sure that companies commit you when they commit to you know storing data and the Safeway making sure that they're actually doing that. Doesn't sound like we have a lot of that in the United States either though Graham. I mean, we have constant security breaches left and right Right. Well, the United States doesn't have a central data governance or data security or privacy Regulatory System the most prominent example of one globally as Europe, which has the general data protection regulation called the GDP are, and that governs things like when an apper services going to collect your personal information they have to gain certain types of consent and follow certain types of rules and there's also kind of limits the. Idea that if you collect data for a certain reason that you got consent for you shouldn't be able to use it for other reasons and that type of governance is just not that prominent in the US partially because the big US social media companies are not especially keen to have their practices heavily regulated they. They find GDP are in Europe to be burdensome and You know get in the way of making money. Kalland back in June president trump organized a rally in Tulsa Oklahoma and rumor has it that tiktok users promoted buying tickets for the event and didn't show up so that the event would be empty. What do we know about how that rubbed of the administration? So, what we know is it seemed to sort of frustrate the administration. Now, there's no evidence that the Tiktok users and K pop stands who are fans of Korean pop music that they had any impact on turnout. We are going through a global pandemic. There are a lot of factors going on right now. So it is really hard to know sort of what that impact was. But what we do know is it likely inflated expectations for turnout. The administration was planning to have a second rally after the main rally in Tulsa. which they then had to cancel, and so we think that it really messed with them. It was a it was a real genuine troll on the part of these tic TAC users against the president, and it really seemed to rub him the wrong way and there are lots of Tiktok users young first time voters who are telling me that when trump said, he wanted to ban this APP that was a retaliation for what they did the stunt they pulled the prank they pulled in Tulsa most what they think is happening. That's what they think is happening why there is no evidence that that's the president's line of thinking but that's what these eighteen to twenty two year olds are telling me that that's their beliefs. Cowan, we talked about The you know whether or not talk users actually had any effect on the trump rally in Tulsa back in June but more more directly here wondering if you're seeing any more political movement on the APP, whether it's a pro trump or pro biden or anti-trump anti, Biden has it started to move away from dance and song and move towards more political leaning so far. It can do both things at once actually. So there are still the dance trends. There are massive accounts that are just enjoying music on the APP but we see a lot of politics on Tiktok now maybe more than ever some young people are telling me they feel that because their home in quarantine and because politics ramping up nationally as we get closer to this election that they're seeing more and more politics in their feet, and what we're seeing is a not so much pro by content, but a lot of anti-trump content and I WANNA be clear. There is Republican Todd Democrat tiktok liberal Tick Tock conservative Tiktok. But what it appears to be is a lot of generation. Z.. Has a anti-trump sentiment and that does not mean they heavy pro biden sentiment. But things that we see our young people say, Hey, on this day, everyone go to president, trump's campaign store and put these products in your cart. But don't check out because allegedly that messes with their inventory or everyone on this day go to president trump's twitter account and report account, and let's see we can get a taken down. So we're still seeing these sort of organized movements sort of Troll, the president and a lot of discussion of politics but whether or not that is in in favor of vice, President Biden or in favor of president trump is sort of yet to be seen. Graham LE. Let's talk a little bit. But I mean, it sounds like tiktok users are for the most part having fun on the site sort of trying to do the things that Collina's talking about here but. On a more serious note, the trump administration has been trying to ban the APP. They're citing national security concerns, concerns over censorship by the Chinese government. Valid are any of those concerns really given what you know about China US politics Well I think it's you have to separate them out So the the concern about censorship I think is legitimate there was there was an example a little while ago where it looked like some of the censorship that they would do in China restricting conversations about things the Communist Party doesn't like discussed had bled over into the international product Now, Tiktok said that they were addressing that wasn't intended again, we don't really. Have a good way in the United States to check up on that and to kind of make sure that speech isn't being censored one way or the other the national security issue I think requires a lot more imagination Now, you know as was mentioned, the the military has has told service members to not use the APP and I think that makes a good amount a sense you know if if you're concerned about an APP Having links to a potential adversary There's all sorts of possibilities of ways that it could be exploited even just using location data of of service members or people who work in sensitive facilities. But if you don't work in sensitive facilities, if you're just sort of going around and and and doing the fun things and engaging in some of the political discourse that Cowan was mentioning you know there's not. A real big national security issue there a I will say that some people think that collecting the full aggregate totality of US Tiktok users could be used later in a analysis to try to do something, but it's really imaginative at this point whereas I think the censorship concerns a real and could be checked on and data privacy concerns are real but should be able to be checked on as well. What about the fact that we we just heard from Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group in the previous segment talking about how the United States is viewed internationally in terms of our response to the corona virus. But I did ask in also about his thoughts on what this Tiktok dust up between president trump and China what seemed to Be Rooted in and he said, you know this is also part of trump's sort of relationship with how he views China and Chinese technology he's gone after while way he's gone you know talked a lot about five G. technologies. So do you see that I mean? Do you see that as a pattern in how the president views technologies specifically that's coming out of China. Yeah I think the you know the trump administration's been. Pursuing a campaign of you know escalating what could be a new type of Cold War approach to China and a lot of it is wrapped up in technology and and I think the focus on Tiktok really makes the most sense. If you consider it a distraction from two things I is a distraction from actual problems with China you know the the trump administration got this phase one trade deal which didn't really get to the deep issues of subsidy and market access and intellectual property protection. And, on the other hand, it's distracting from the fact that a lot of these security concerns should apply across many apps. Why just tick Tock you know you're talking about including American made apps like facebook and twitter. Yeah I mean the concerns are different when the parent company is in China but there are really unaccountable data collection methods going on across ad networks and data brokers are building profiles of Americans and people in other countries that can be purchased just with money and you know it's not only add companies that by this data governments can get it to. Callan, as we sort of touched on this earlier. But of course, we I, say this all the time we're heading into one of the most consequential presedential elections in my lifetime at least social media is constantly changing is tiktok going to be a thing and twenty twenty and November, or is it going to be eclipse with something else or it'll change the? Will it change the election? Calvin what are your thoughts on that? I don't see Tiktok going away anytime soon, as long as the president allows it to operate in the United States I think we're gonNA see more is eight organizing on the APP among young people and I think we're GONNA see. TIKTOK. As long as Microsoft buys it or another company comes in to allow it to operate in the US I think it's going to stick around for a long time. I mean the president did Callan has also asked that Microsoft give money to the Treasury. If it makes this sale, we is anybody else interested in buying tiktok or is it just Microsoft right now? I don't think anyone else has come out as far as I'm aware and said that they are interested in purchasing Tik. Tok I think Microsoft even just recently confirmed that they were interested in this conversation, but it appears a deal needs to be made by September fifteenth. So if someone's going to buy it, it has to happen soon. Well you heard it here I guess I callan Rosenblatt is a youth internet culture reporter for NBC News Dot Com and Graham Webster is the editor of the digit China Project at the Stanford? University Cyber Policy Center and he's also a fellow
The Unravelling 4: War Party
"This is the Jaakko on Raveling podcast episode four. With Daryl, Cooper and me, Jaakko willink. And, we're about to pick up the thread. Of JAAKKO GOING TO WAR I WanNa read something from. Tom ricks book fiasco early part from the earliest part of the invasion because I want to give people an idea of. The fire. You were jumping into in September, October. Two thousand three, so the war started in March. and. The conventional forces the Iraqis the resistance in the cities. Is precisely the match for the US military that you think it is, and we burn through them and. The Third Infantry Division gets up into Baghdad quick. They take the airport they make their thunder runs through the city, and the regime collapses very rapidly. That's in March early April. And this passage is. Referring, to appear now April into May. Quote. Baghdad was falling apart in front of the eyes of the US military with buildings, being looted and parents afraid to let their children outside, but no one had orders to do anything about it. Looking back several years later, Colonel Colonel Allan King the head of Civil Affairs for three ID spoke of April, two thousand, three with slow chilled tone of horror and his voice. I got to Baghdad was told. You've got twenty four hours to come up with a phase four plan. On the night of April eight Colonel John Sterling Chief of staff of three ID came to me, and said I just got off the phone with the court chief of staff, and I asked him for the reconstruction plan, and he said there isn't one so you've got twenty four hours to come up with one. King was stunned. He had been asking for months for just such a plan and had been told that when the time came, he would be given it. Lacking clear orders about what to do once. In Baghdad, the Third Infantry Division more or less stayed in place in the capital. You didn't find many dismounted patrols with three ID recalled J. Garner a retired army general, not one to lightly criticize his old peers. Kind of stayed with their platforms. That is their. And Bradley Fighting Vehicles. On April. Sixth Lieutenant Douglas Hoyt a platoon leader with three. Id saw looters for the first time. I remembered looking through the sights on my tank at people and trying to determine if they were hostile or not, he recalled later. He didn't stop them. It was not our mission at the time. The divisions official actor Action Review. States that. It had no orders to do anything else. Quote. Third Infantry Division transitioned into phase four SASSO. That's a security and stability ops with no plan from higher H. Q. IT reported. There was no guidance for restoring order in Baghdad creating an interim government, hiring government and essential services, employees, and ensuring that the judicial system was operational. The result was. A power and authority vacuum created by our failure to immediately replace key government institutions. The president announced that our national goal was regime change. This is still reading from the thirty report. That our national goal was regime change yet. There was no timely plan prepared for the obvious consequences of regime change. As a matter of law and fact, the United States is an occupying power in Iraq even if we characterize ourselves as liberators. Because of the refusal to acknowledge our occupier, status commanders did not initially take measures available to occupying powers such as imposing curfews, directing civilians to return to work and controlling the local government in populous. The failure to act after we displaced the regime creating a power vacuum, which others immediately tried to fill. Now. I. Know that War is very confusing. Thing and nobody has a plan after the first punch thrown the fight. There were. Some decisions made in the earliest days of this war that I find pretty inexplicable specifically because they went against the advice of the military and the intelligence establishment, and they were made seemingly for ideological and political. L. Paul Bremmer he was the civilian who was. Sent over to head the Coalition Provisional Authority the CPA the civilian authority structure in Iraq.
The Voice of Healthcare
"It's good to have you with us. We have a show that I've been really Jones in four. I somehow got lucky. and was reading online about really creative folks in the space of Covid. And came across. A group of people that created a skill called the hand wash. And I thought to myself. What is this and it was artists? It was creatives. It was musicians singing in a simple way in order for us to handle a hygienic me during the time of pandemic, which is handwashing something that believe it or not, a lot of people don't do very well at all so I've got three special guest today. Lane Harris Daniel Bremmer and Lucy Cullen Tori. They're gonNA. Talk to us about how they got started why they started it and where it's headed from here so me. Open it up to questions here. I'll start with lean and Daniel. Tell us about how this guy going where you decided to build it. And how did you end up? Incorporating musicians into this tool set that we could argue as a public health benefit more than a musical entertainment sort of enrichment benefit. Well, this this actually start is a shower thought. I had recently seen video that that demonstrated how detergent molecules physically break up the virus behind covid nineteen, and it made it really visceral seeing it seeing it like that and made me understand the whole twenty second. Recommendation from the CDC. Like okay. We all know we're supposed to wash. Our hands are washing your hands long probably should, but oh, this is probably like a speed limit where it's exaggerated in some some give room, but when I watched this I was like Oh. Wow, this is this is I see how this is important, and and as you know, take a shower with thinking about I'm like it's really hard to make people sit there and do something boring for twenty seconds when it got like twelve other things in their mind, especially during this time And what can we do about that? And I had heard about Of course, the alphabet saw on the thing. I heard people talking about like their favor taking their choruses, favorite pop songs and I was thinking what would be something that would be a little bit easier to do. Consistently and I thought well. We have all these the smart speakers in our homes and a lot of us have our bathrooms. Maybe there's something we can do there and that's what I started to think lane. The the I thought. I had in my mind before. I reached out to lane was like maybe this? This'll be like an internet variety show. It's a different. You know different things every time you open it like a magic box and we'll be like. Oh, it'll be a joke one day, a weird fact or a story or a song. And so yeah I, give a call the pretty much straight shower to see if he was interested. And we immediately started batting around ideas and He felt pretty strongly that it should be one thing and be consistent to provide the user with with Only one thing to to to expect, and we very quickly decided that it should be music and he knew Lucy and let him go to his side of it, but I think it was about a day and a half that we had a demo.
US begins revoking Hong Kong's special status over row with China
"States, saying it has revoked parts of Hongkong's special status. Under U. S law. Ed. It's all yours. And this looks like the beginning comes in the form of a written statement from Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, saying the new security measures on Hong Kong that there's a risk That sensitive U. S. Tech could goto Beijing, he says an end a Hong Kong preferential treatment over China, including export license exemptions and some visas, he says further actions too deferential treatment are also being evaluated. So what's up with the timing? Well, Eurasia Group founder Ian Bremmer says things have not been going well for President Trump's reelection effort, so he has kind of grasp onto this one's going toe look, a scan that President Trump For whacking China over unilaterally changing the terms of Hong Kong special status of Hong Kong's autonomy. The Americans are changing the status here the Chinese are and the Americans are only recognized against. Security legislation in Beijing. Expect to be voted on later today
The US is now in a recession — How long will it last?
"We are in a recession like right now already thing is this isn't like the recessions we usually get were something wrong with the financial system or another part of the economy a problem it might take a while to fix right this is a pandemic a really fast moving pandemic that at some point is going to be over and that let us today to wonder how bad this recession might get how quickly it might pass and how long it's gonna take us to get back to where we were marketplace's Sabri Banna shore starts us off in one week jobless claims went from two hundred and eighty two thousand to three point three million one week that is how fast this economic downturn is happening but just because it is coming on quickly does not mean it will go away quickly the recovery is going to be staggered a sharp V. shaped recession doesn't seem likely says carpenter is chief U. S. economist at UBS securities as different parts of the country get hacked and shut down at different times the recession spreads out across time how much time welcome here says he thinks the lockdowns in the worst of the virus could pass by June but the economy we knew will not be waiting on the other side there are millions upon millions of Americans who have already and will have lost their jobs I suspect spending will be damped pretty dramatically for a lot of those people as they try to rebuild their lives the unemployment rate could fall somewhere between ten and thirty percent even people who don't lose their jobs may not spend the same way Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia group people are not going to feel comfortable going to concerts going to bars or getting on a crowded plane after nine eleven it took about two years for the truck to return to the pre attack levels here Norman bar this is chief economist of IHS Markit he says businesses like people will take on debt to get through this which will leave them much less likely to make big investments as some businesses go under supply chains will lose links we don't think will regain the pre opened nineteen levels of GDP for another two or three years so in two to three years the economy will be where it was a few months ago forget where we would have been had this pandemic not happened but despite that the US has one piece of advice this too shall pass one more time this too shall
Global Economy Faces Gravest Threat Since The 2008 Crisis As Coronavirus Spreads
"But let's talk first about the global economy I mean like I said I've been reading you and you've been talking about the possibility of the coronavirus opening up assuming upending the global economy and this is a real danger now I miss it in many people's minds almost imminent this is the first global crisis we've had since two thousand eight and the difference is that the politics of the response are so much more divisive now both inside the United States as well as globally are you a member in two thousand eight there was both the bush and the Obama administration's came together to support bailouts in the financial industry also in Detroit the world came together the G. seventy G. twenty in saying we need coordinated stimulus and we need to work to improve consumer sentiment those things are not happening right now that that creates a lot more panic right and so I think that it respective of how bad coronavirus becomes a we can talk about what's happening in China and the implications more broadly for developed and emerging markets but certainly the resilience to respond to a global crisis is not what we would like it to be and I think that's part of the reason the markets have been as volatile file and as negative here in the United States over the last two weeks well developing and emerging markets have certainly been fluctuating all along but the Chinese supply chain has been shut down as a result of this and you pointed out that this is really this began a phase one with the trade deal I think as you also pointed out but this is really something that could bring their terrible economic slowdown it's already happening to some degree and fear of recession is palpable I think the the the really big thing that's happening here is that globalization is changing in trajectory and that started well before corona virus that started in the technology space we're going after Huawei and other Chinese tak ka companies five G. artificial intelligence the Chinese are doing everything possible to have control of their own supply chain so I. D. coupling of the world's two largest economies in the most advanced sectors of those economies with the Americans are telling our allies they'll be hell to pay if you don't link up with us and the Chinese are spending lots of money through belt and road saying no you guys need to align with Beijing so that's where it really started and then you have a lot of companies that have been recognizing that they didn't need as much labor to make their business work over the past five years and the costs of Chinese labor were going up the competitive environment was more challenging rule of not law was not being developed then you have corona virus where suddenly you don't have good data your ex pats are scared in your supply chain has been disrupted well we're not now just talking about AI and technology we're now talking about services and manufacturing we are a lot of western companies are going to look at China and say we really don't want to have that level of global exposure that we did before so the big point here is that over the last fifty years so much of what's been cool about the global economy creating a global middle class improvements in life expectancy improvements in education and health they've come from goods and services and data moving across borders faster and faster and faster well now what we're seeing is this a tremendous backlash against that in some core components of the global economy and obviously that's going to have very long lasting implications for all of us here in the United States it's kind of scary it's not great I mean the the the positive side is that our own political institutions in the wealthy countries the US Europe Japan are actually quite resilient for different reasons so it's not as if we're facing the end of representative democracy or that we're no longer going to have checks and balances irrespective of what you think about the present administration but but certainly the quality of global growth and the volatility around our economic returns those things are gonna change pretty dramatically in corona viruses absolutely a big piece of that talking with Ian Bremmer and he's also the author of a book called us verses on the failure of globalism are you a fan you've said of globalization but not of globalism distinguished us for us well that's right and and we're kind of talking about it right in the sense that globalization is simply the fact that if you have more open borders you will have more efficient global growth but you want to be able to take advantage of global capital and human capital to ensure that companies are as profitable as possible you don't want five sets of standards you want one set of standards and rules and norms but globalism is the idea that promoting policies of free trade and open migration and the promotion of democracy and free market capitalism that those things will automatically lead to better lives for everyone and what we have of course seen is that actually in a quality in our own country and in democracies around the world has expanded dramatically and so that's why you get trump it's why you get Sanders it's why you get brexit it's why you get this relational and France that's why you get the five star movement and the league in Italy and on and on and on in fact the only major advanced economy that doesn't have this response is Japan and the reason for that is because the population is shrinking so even though the economy is flat per capita doing better there's no immigration so they're not opposed to all these people coming in that are different and they don't fight any wars so they're not angry about the promotion of democracy internationally that they're poor people have been paying for they're not doing it but the Japanese model is not a model the Americans are about to emulate so globalism has actually been a failure in this country and in many countries around the world and it's very hard for someone like me who likes globalization to tell fellow Americans you should support the transpacific partnership you should support more open borders when we know that we're not taking care of those people I am deeply empathetic to the idea that they would stop supporting globalization because they're not
"bremmer" Discussed on NewsRadio KFBK
"A lot about New Hampshire today they're voting in New Hampshire tomorrow we're going to talk about what they did voting in New Hampshire today unless they do like Iowa and just have it just be so messed I don't think it will be it's gonna be a regular old vote you know you go in your vote to keep score I posted my Twitter side there was a funny Ian Bremmer had put up a whole layer his the guy who's the the head of the Iowa Democrat party I was standing at a podium many had the Iowa Democrat party logo on the big you know big cardboard thing in front of the podium all professionally done a while he's talking the thing falls off it's his fault it falls to the ground I mean there's the that this guy and I just it just all of it I'm sure is a very nice man but it just personifies incompetence to the nth degree whoever put the Iowa Democrat party side up used cheap taper whatever they did so anyway lots to talk about today we've got New Hampshire we've got all the prognosticators are they have no idea they have no idea because of the fact there's a big percentage of people in New Hampshire I think they're they're you know strong independent people and they don't want to play the media's game or the pollsters game so they Donna just don't say much or they say I'm undecided you're not undecided it's time to meet you know people know who they who they are for who they are not so here are some of the last minute comments by trombone P. Bernie and Biden all in New Hampshire.
"That was an interesting eighteen or so hours in the global markets wasn't it no sooner had we finished up an explainer on how the markets can price things in it if it knows those things are calm and then something came at the markets somehow we're not expecting there was a missile attack last night they may not really too belligerent statement from president from this morning and somehow everything was fine we've called Amy Myers Jaffe for some context on this she is a long time Middle East analyst also now a senior fellow at the council on foreign relations Amy walking program thank you for having me let's do a quick got check your this news last night I'm sure you as I and many other people check the futures market what was your what was your initial reaction well I think that it makes sense that the markets calm down afterwards of course were were hoping for a peaceful I'll come up for conflict resolution but I think the markets may be a little optimistic in the sense that there's a long row to hoe here on a very long and stubborn conflict in the Middle East so maybe people are a little too optimistic this is if I could if I could go to my Donald Rumsfeld dictionary this is the very definition of unknown unknowns right yes the president was moderately diplomatic today but there's so much yet to come there's a lot of water that needs to be crossed and I think the markets reflect that in the price of gold now course gold is also strong because we're expecting a US China trade deal and we're expecting a weaker dollar but in the end I do think that that hefty gold price art reflects the sentiment that we're not out of the woods yet talk to me about oil for a second would you kind of make sense it is down hard today long term now I know that all the analysts are saying long term down for oil but my feeling is there still a lot of geo political risks to be had we still have tremendous on rest on the ground if the Iraqi population is unhappy with the way things go you know you could see or workers decide that they're going to join the anti government protesters armed or if there's a breakdown in negotiations between the United States around in Iraq and the United States quote unquote gets kicked out you could see sanctions on Iraq's oil because Iraq has been doing these swaps with Iran these energy swaps with Iran and that would be in a logical next step of things break down are you called at all by the fact that the United States is such a major producer of oil now that helps me from the point of view of worrying about the US economy if the price of oil goes way up there many states the benefit now because we have so many states that are oil producing the didn't used to be oil producing and of course our trade deficit isn't as badly hurt the problem is you know you want a high we might not take a road trip this summer for oil prices are very high and also we know from past oil shocks that American stop buying cars when the price of gasoline is going up in the course that would be very bad for the economy because that's a big part of the GDP of the United States okay so short to medium term what are you watching well I'm more watching sort of how it plays out of course in the Middle East I think that's a very major risk I want to see on that that US China trade deal comes forward and and what form and then I think the markets you know the Eurasia group which is eight geopolitical risk organization says the United States is the number one geo political risk in the world today so I do think the U. S. selection depending on which way it swings could be a major feature in financial markets also I think we have to watch that very closely your age group for co founder Ian Bremmer question your marketplace morning report all the time Amy Meyers Jeffery she's at the council of foreign relations in New York Amy thanks a lot appreciate your time your thoughts thank you
Trump: 'Ahead of schedule' on China trade deal
"President trump is in Chicago meeting with police chiefs today but on his way he told reporters that things are looking up for US China trade deal we're about I would say a little bit ahead of schedule maybe a lot ahead of schedule probably will sign it still this is Ian Bremmer he's founder and president of the Eurasia group so we're ahead of schedule it says Ian do we believe him in the sense that he's moving quickly to something he can announce sure we believe them in the sense that it's an actual deal that will bring the country's closer together on trade or technology or Hong Kong or South China Sea the answer is no the the Chinese recognize that the United States and from a particular under much more pressure than they were a few months ago given the economy softening given elections coming up and giving the growing impact of the trade war they're prepared to wait this guy out so what they have on offer is really exactly where they were several months ago it's buying limited amount of American AG in return for no escalation of of further terrorist and I don't think we are much more than that why would the Chinese be willing to wait and see what's behind door number two given what some of the democratic candidates for president and saying I haven't heard a lot of warm noises about China coming out any no that's true but they they do feel that trump is not to be trusted they feel them she is Jim paying has felt that he's given away a fair amount of political capital try to get a deal done particularly the Osaka G. twenty meeting this summer and it didn't work out for him and secondarily the fact that they don't believe that trump has a lot of ammunition left so it doesn't hurt the Chinese to play a waiting game it doesn't mean that the next president whether it's trump or whether it's a damn is going to be easy to work with but they do hope that they'll be more regularized more normalized relationship between the two and that's something the Chinese to prepare to wait on so we've been really consumed with things from all but Daddy's death in the raid to what's going on Argentine things like that so this may have missed the fact that China is having a little bit of a meeting right now going on the most import they have of the year the plan is going on how does present she go into that meeting what is his political support as it were with his own teeth between team I would say it looks like of the not very controversial I mean although a lot of people that are saying oh my god the Chinese economy is slowing that means we should expect to see big noises to see them stimulate the economy more insure this growth redouble efforts to expand employment they're not doing that they they feel comfortable going below six percent growth they feel comfortable with their present levels of corporate debt the allowing of some small number of organizations to go bankrupt but in a very regularized way this is not a country that feels like it is in any way in crisis mode if what what they're doing I would say is simply making sure that there's a conversation between those that want to have a harder line directly towards the Americans and those that want to see more reconciliation but this is not the kind of schism we've seen historically towards is it reform or is it you know retrenchment of state capitals in the torture an ism Shizhen pains way which is we're not politically reforming and by the way we're going to go our own way one technology it won't be aligned with the Americans we have our own way on architecture won't be alone with Americans that is a consolidated consensus view in China right now we will see that coming out of this planet part of president she's way which differs from the way of his predecessors really has been being much more bold in his language about the role of China in the world for many years we heard old we're not that big a country and yes this is a big prison she has a very different approach to were reports that some people with his own party were very concerned about that thought he'd gone too far too fast yeah I mean I like I remember when I was speaking at the Chinese embassy to the entire staff with the ambassador there in Washington and I was making the point that I thought your respective of what the Chinese government was doing on artificial intelligence that Shizhen pangs effort to say that we will lead the world by twenty thirty was a bad idea that that just P. R. perspective like why would you suddenly want that target on your back and get all these other countries including Americans focused on the fact that we've got a nascent real competitor that wants to knock us off in China and the funny thing was in that group and they were you know a hundred hundred fifty people there there were people actively I mean permanent staffers high level staffers of the Chinese foreign office vigorously nodding with that take so that there is a disagreement internally on how much the Chinese want to be assertive around this new found power in in in an environment where there's more of a power vacuum with Americans don't want to do as much when no one else is capable do the Chinese want to step up or do they want to still say no we're not ready for leadership we're still poor I think that the patriotism that she's in pain has been ginning up that we were a leading global economy until the nineteenth century the west took us over for a hundred fifty years and now it's our time again it works on the streets but it makes a lot of the leads in China deeply uncomfortable this is a president trump has been drawing back in various parts around the world and he's been very sort of a China when it comes to trade but he's made no secret the fact he doesn't want our troops in as many places doesn't wanna be asserting ourselves and say does that leave something of vacuum were encouraged prison G. in his direction well a bomb is done the same when we talk about how much Obama wanted a footprint in the Middle East and he was the guy that did the pivot to Asia didn't work out very well he's the guy that said I want to you know will surge in Afghanistan but we want the troops out we want to end the war in Iraq I think the thing that trump ads on top of that is his assertive indifference to long term American alliances and architecture that he believes those relationships are transactional and that provides a lot more space for the Chinese where they say you see this is the way it works you can't trust the Americans more than you can trust us all countries come out this only in terms of they're more limited national interest that provides more space for the Chinese to operate and it allows it makes other countries hard pressed not to hedge away from the Arab Americans in towards the Chinese who of course are writing the very big checks prison truck needs to get reelected next year he wanted very badly to what extent will he trim his sails and declare victory in retreat and what comes to US China trade he's already doing it I think that if you look at the and now instrument that he made a couple of weeks ago that you know fees a of the D. O. was already there when there was no such thing there was nothing sign comes because he feels a level of urgency why did he suddenly want to pull out the troops in Syria with such urgency what's he doing with the north Koreans looking for a third you know summit all around the world that's what you see from the president
"bremmer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Led by would come on Bloomberg many times and talk about how the stock market is a leading indicator in the economy what the president thinks about every day and when I think about every day going into Sir him is how to create good jobs at good wages for the American people particularly those who work with their hands and through policies like tax cuts deregulation cheap energy in a level playing field on trade we managed to grow this economy at levels that or unprecedented given the forecasts we were faced with when we came into Washington DC so that's what the president thinks that my point is he thinks about building a stronger economy and the stock market follows that it sees what we're doing and it goes up and and it should tremendous testimony to this president that disagree this market has been going up did the day after the election I was on and when the teachers were down significantly and predicted dal twenty five thousand I'm here today to tell you will get the thirty thousand on the Dow if we pass you SMCA would cut interest rates and we move forward with the trump world agenda it's a beautiful thing president is doing but he needs a little help now from Congress when you essentially a let's get that done he needs a little help from the federal reserve which got ahead of its lease a few months ago and and and causes a little bit a girl that was Peter Navarro assistant to the president for trade and manufacturing policy and coming up Ian Bremmer Eurasia.
"bremmer" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Was Steve white CEO of harvest health and recreation and coming up Ian Bremmer Eurasia group resident this is Bloomberg with a Bloomberg business of sports report I'm Michael Barnes the sneaker planned to commemorate the July fourth holiday was pulled from stores before could go on sale but if you plan to release a version of its air Max sneaker with the Betsy Ross flag on the back with thirteen stars in a circle but the Wall Street journal says Nike endorser former NFL quarterback Colin Kaepernick reached out to the company and said the revolutionary war era flag is offensive to many because it represents an era of slavery Nike spokesman mark Rhodes says Nike has chosen not to release the air Max one quick strike fourth of July as it featured an old version of the American flag Activision announced the sale of two new franchises for its call of duty E. sports league from Los Angeles and Minnesota Los Angeles is operated by immortals gaming club and Minnesota is operated by the will family led Weiss ventures the total of teams in the league has now risen to seven and that is a Bloomberg business of sports reporter Michael bar the let's say you just bought a house bad news is your one step closer to becoming your parents you'll probably most along and see if anybody noticed you mow the lawn tell people to stay off the lawn compare it to your neighbor's lawn and complain about having to mow the lawn again good news is it's easy to model home an auto through progressive and save on your car insurance which of course will go right into the lawn progressive casualty insurance company affiliates and other insurers discount not available in all states or situations the art and antiques world is constantly evolving trends come and go fashions change but the one constant is exquisite eighteenth century English furniture always in good taste always in style in business for fifty years Hyde Park antiques showcases the most extensive.
"bremmer" Discussed on The MFCEO Project
"Discount Bremmer tell you right now, everything you need to know every single thing that you need to know can be found on this podcast. And at my let's podcast, and I'm not just saying that because ED's my partner and other business. But because I believe in it, and he does the right thing. And he talks the right things, and he talks about the right concepts of success in business between those two. Casts. That's it. All the information. You need is there a right now with that being said, you guys have to look in the mirror and decide what it is that you wanna do. Do you want to be one of these excess ambiance and go around and by everyone else's shit. Or do you want to become the person who's actually successful? It's a big difference. Because actually successful people are working while you're playing entrepreneur and traveling around the fucking speaker circuit, they're building companies. They're doing things there's not one person on this fucking earth that went to any of these fucking conferences automak became a fucking millionaire. Did happen, right? So go to things if that's what you wanna do. If you wanna go hang out with your friends going out with your friends at these events. That's fine. But stop thinking that it's going to be the solution. Stop thinking that it's going to fix all your problems. Stop thinking that oh, I'm gonna be rich. I go to this event. No, you're actually going to be poorer. Because here's what's going to happen one. You're gonna go to you're gonna get sold a bunch more shit three. It's going to be the same shit. You already heard one hundred fucking times everywhere four you're gonna have less money in your Bank count because you paid for all this shit five that means you have less money to actually invest in your fucking company. So. While you may be sitting there thinking, oh, Andy, you're just hating and hating..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"So folks at the end of the show today, I wanted to take a couple of minutes to share with you. Let's add story. And it's about someone you probably never heard of. But that I want to tell you about his name is Patrick Egan about five years ago when I was a US attorney for the southern district of New York. Young man, bright capable warm friendly dedicated to doing the right thing. Walk into my office looking for a job as an assistant US attorney. That was Patrick Egan. Patrick was the kind of person you wanted to be around the kind of person you wanted to have in the trench with you. Popular friendly, smart, dedicated an excellent prosecutor who essentially stole from the Manhattan DA's office. And so he became a federal prosecutor in the southern district of New York. Well last week after an all too quick fight with cancer Patrick Egan passed away. Now, there are a lot of people in government that you hear about who. Seek the limelight and get the limelight. Many of them undeserving of it. But there people like Patrick h-. You never hear about and Patrick Egan. Even though he went to the best schools. He went to Yale undergrad to the university of Michigan law school. He never ever saw it. Fame. He never sought wealth. All he did was serve after law school. He went as an honors program candidate to the Justice department to antitrust work, then he went to the Manhattan DA's office. And then he came to the southern district of New York. All he did was try to protect the public and serve the public while also loving his family and being a great colleague to all of his friends and peers every place he went so at this time when we seem to be surrounded by selfishness and everyone trying to get something for themselves. I wanted you to know the name Patrick Egan. This public servant who cared more about doing things for its community in his country than anyone else. You'll meet he leaves behind three young children Connor, Molly and Cormack and also grieving wife, Sarah. And I want to say a word to my former colleagues at the southern district of New York all of you out there. You know, it is a prosecuting office full of people who enforce the law try cases. And it is that but for the people who work there as I've said before it's also a kind of second family people care about each other. They take care of each other. And this week's loss is devastating to them heartbreaking to them, and there's a lot of grief. So as you read about the cases, which will go on and people will be professional. You should know that the people they're human beings to and they're suffering a lot because of the laws of their. Dedicated and beloved colleague, Patrick, so I send them a lot of love, and is in them a lot of hugs. And he gets the final obvious point that we too often forget is that life is short. And sometimes the best people don't live long enough. Patrick egan. May you rest in peace? Shit for this episode of stay tuned. Thanks again to my guest. Ian bremmer? If you like the show rate and
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"But in the UK with Brexit and across Europe and pretty much every developed economy in the world except Japan for reasons that are very clearly unique to Japan, no immigration shrinking population. Very few adults on social media, no military involved in wars abroad. Japan Spanish is different Japan is different like, Florida. It is like Florida in a better way. No, alligators right, hanging pads. No, no people running around naked and convenience stores with weapons. I mean, they that doesn't happen in Japan. People people have Florida you have to pay in Bremmer with to him. I thought he goes say people in Japan, you've you've you've insulted a lot of people and things, but not that are listening to this podcast. So we're okay, I'm sending this to Florida. You are best. I'm going to send us the Florida. Yeah. But do I mean, the answer your question? I mean in terms of what what does it mean, these people that say that this is treasonous behaviour? I I am less willing to talk just about Trump's treasonous behavior. Because I believe that people like myself have been complicit over the past decades in allowing us to get to the point where people want to vote for crazy protests things people want to break the system, and I need I think we need as a country to spend more time focusing on that or the next time around we're gonna get someone like Trump who's competent someone like Trump capable which is much more dangerous to us. I think we should focus on that. I don't think the media's focused on that. I think instead there is this incredible screaming match going around of treason and fake news, treason and fake news, which I don't think actually gets us anywhere. I'd much rather have the conversation. But what's really happening? I think that's more useful. What's globalist? A globalist is someone who believes. That the system of open borders free trade, which I should say comparatively open borders, comparatively free trade and the United States with allies, providing the services of global sheriff for marshalling global security that is the best system for citizens in your country to support that's a globalist. A globalist is very different than someone that thinks globalization is a good thing. Globalization clearly has succeeded as a system. So the reason I asked for definition is because people use these terms, and then they take signs with respect to something by assuming that everyone is talking about the same thing. Yeah. So when when a guy like Steve Bannon who was in perhaps is in Trump's orbit rails against globalism. What does he what did he saying? He's railing against the party of Davos, he's railing against all all of these individual elites, the mainstream media the academics. Political leaders of establishment parties, the heads of businesses and financial institutions who railing at the thing that you were describing. Yes, it's a different kind of thing. Yes. He's profited. My heat not to be fair. Steve Bannon, also occasionally couches these things in more Ethno, national terms, and certainly among members of the all right people have used globalism to mean bastard, intelligentsia aluminum ju-, right? That is not the way globalism has historically been used in. It's not it's certainly not the way that I think that intelligent members of society should use. I I don't think you should see the term globalism to people who want to make it an evil nefarious ler right in the same way people who are of a particular ideological persuasion. Don't see the word liberal, right? That's right. Exactly. Or people, you know, railing against homosexuals called them queer, and then we had the development of queer nation, and they owned that term themselves, and that struck me as much more healthy way to go about it. So I'm glad that we're at the end of your report, you say, we will all live forever. Do not say that a different report. That's what I took from it. No stupid. Ian bremmer? Thank you for being with us up near..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"That's a huge problem in causes risk in a way that maybe we can't foresee right now at and no question that that had been deteriorating for some time before Trump Assad must go red line on Syria. Russians must leave Ukraine North Koreans must denuclearize. And I'm not just talking about Obama. I'm talking well before that. Right. So American influence globally has been deteriorating. For a long time for decades, certainly after nine eleven the forever war in Iraq, certainly after two thousand eight and shaken in beliefs in underpinnings of American capitalist system. I mean, we've been losing a lot of influence and the rise of China has been a significant problem in Trump's presidency. Speeds that problem up Trump's presidency makes more leaders more quickly hedge away from the United States as an example that they would want to follow as a leader that they would want to engage with as an ally that they would feel committed to that is clearly true. Trump is worse for that. Now on Syria since you asked about Syria, we're talking about two thousand American special forces on the ground Assad has one he has displaced eleven thousand Syrians half of his population five thousand refugees, six hundred thousand are dead. He won the war, and he won the war because the Russians and the Iran. In particular, the Turks to a lesser degree are the ones with skin in the game. They're the ones that care about the outcomes the Americans we set a lot of things we don't care our willingness to do anything that was going to prevent those ridiculous atrocities to Uman beings was virtually zero and the same is true for the Europeans. And so as a consequence of that we lost the war in Syria, the Russians the Iranians and Assad is one now the fact that Donald Trump has said he wants to take two thousand troops out and didn't bother to talk to his head of joint chiefs beforehand or call his allies about it. That's a pretty broken process. That's a really stupid thing. That's very different from suddenly saying that owned by God, you know, suddenly were losing the war in Syria because Trump, but one further thing, we talk about process. Let's remember that the reason the Americans were on the ground in Syria was because they we were fighting a war against ISIS. The arguments that have been used by the foreign policy establish. And elite to say, we've got to defend the Kurds. We've got humanitarian issues the Russians are going to have a vacuum when he'd leverage for the political outcomes. None of those things where ever proved by congress ever as a reason for American special forces on the ground, and by the way, I think that none of them were going to make a difference. The only thing aside from process aside from the fact that our allies are losing their beliefs in us, the one thing we are gonna lose is two thousand smart men and women on the ground who are is in years for intelligence gathering, which we need in terms of fighting has below which we need in terms of understanding what the Iranians doing in the region, which we need in terms of ISIS. Taking those two thousand troops out will be a significant hit to the American ability to continue to have that Intel that we won't get in any other way. When do you think they're gonna come out? I don't think it's within thirty days. I mean, do you think you think they could still be there new year, it's possible? But I think I do think that the likelihood that those two thousand troops leave..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"Is that the leader of the free world the president's dates the commander in chief is incompetent, look that is not the only thing I'm saying the other things of the many things that I would be saying is that we have rule of law in the United States and it works. We have an independent judiciary in the United States and it works. You know, press two we have we have a free media in the United States, and it works less well than it used to. But it still works and of journalism is very significant. You know, we we have a lot. We have hundreds of thousands of people that are pretty patriotic. They're hard working and non very well. Paid that show up every day to be in the US government. You know, what when they see something? They don't like they slow roll it or. Or they leak you remember the deep state. I'm talking about the I would call the deep bureaucracy. You know, they're not getting paid. Now, they're going to get paid. They're just there presently for a load. But I mean, it's not like they're not going to get that money. And by the way, I don't think that's acceptable. But for for the purpose of accuracy. Let's not say they're not getting federal federal workers singer emails. Yes. To in Bremmer in Bremmer. You can do that. It's too EMS. Yes to well. Let's talk about one thing that the administration has been recently and assess it in terms of importance risk, by the way. Let's let's be clear that this is the first time in the history of the firm that the United States domestically has made the list. Right. So let's talk about this one thing that that the administration has done recently in in sif, you have view on it necessite in terms of risk importance. Whether it's a product of incompetence or whatnot in what's going to happen. And that is the president waking up one day in deciding reportedly after a conversation with someone you've mentioned the president of Turkey president Don that he was gonna with. Draw all our troops out of Syria. And he was going to do it in thirty days and caused kind of a conflagration within the government and people got very upset and other people who've been more sycophantic about the president got a little bit of backbone for a minute and a half and said, some things Lindsey Graham included, and then we had the one person who many folks thought was the adult in the room, and you hear that phrase a lot about people in this government, but the secretary of defense General Mattis resigns Brett mcgurk, this special envoy resigns and now and now, of course, was going to resign a month later, let's be a month and a half later just again for accuracy. So everyone's up in arms. You have the Defense Secretary resigning in writing this letter saying that he disagreed with berries, basic, fundamental principles. And how you go about defending the country and engaging alliances with our allies. And now, even though it looks like that decision was made after competition with Erta one must have been very happy or the ones now upset. Because now it looks like based on what John Bolton has said. Nationally adviser, right, right? We're not withdrawing our troops within thirty days. And we're imposing conditions on Turkey before we withdraw troops and Trump the back somewhat. Right. So what what what's the question? What would you really want me? I want to know what the hell is going on in terms of in terms of Donald Trump, deciding to do something that a lot of people magazine. I guess I guess it's it's a way of it occurred to me while you're making the point you were making that his own incompetence and the structure of institutions saves us from his bad decision making. So that at the end of the day, we don't have the worst result. And look a lot of people think we should be bringing our troops out of lots of places where we have forever worse yet. But nobody likes that happening on a whim without consultation, and without an assessment of the consequences and the risks and bring your allies along..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"Geo-political cycles are slow moving and you say norms and values need to develop to become accepted into shape institutions and societies over time once in place they're sticky and so barring bad luck etcetera etcetera, it takes years even decades to knock down geopolitical order. And I understand what you're saying about norms being sticky. That's not exactly the impression that a lot of people have about institutional constitutional norms in America under Trump. They seem little less sticky. This a little more quickly able to be cast aside. How do you assess the domestic situation with respect to those norms? Yeah, I am still a strong believer that perhaps the most important takeaway from two years of Trump, thus far is that his ability to actually damage Americans to Sion's surprising limited. Now, some of that is because Trump is more incompetent than he is or -tarian or corrupt. Right. So his of they're not mutually exclusive. They're not, of course, not. But I'm saying that I mean, look if you look as authoritative as in the fact is he had Steve Bannon. He had said Gorky at Mike Flynn. Those guys are all gone and most of the people around him. There's some that are venal. There are some they're loyal that are some that are just really bad. But you. Don't have a hope Kadre of would be authoritarians around Trump and Trump's ability to maintain focus on what attorney would mean for expanding executive power just is inconsistent as possible to be an authoritarian. If you don't have sort of deep thinking process about authoritarianism and ideology and a philosophy. I think you have to be more capable. I think you know, for example. I mean, even character is a problem here. Like if Trump actually really believed in a religion or could pretend he did if his family actually loved him and he loved them back. I mean things like that. I think would make it easier for him to you know, IMO and lead as an authoritarian than he clearly can his corruption. I mean, yes, there look at all of these things that he does that are most obviously Krupp more than any president in history. And yet the kind of penny ante, I mean, we're not talking about like, you know, Indian military development or or Brazilian infrastructure or Russian metals and energy. We're talking about. Like a casino. We're talking about condo building in in Moscow. So I mean alternately the most defining characteristic of Trump is you know, frankly, how incapable he is both emotionally and in many ways intellectually to occupy the office. And while that drives people insane. It doesn't actually do very much from a policy. That's kind of crazy, and I get what you're saying that in the in an environment in which you worried about someone being evil nefarious incorrupt that hey, you know, it's going to be difficult for him to do his corrupt things because he so incompetent he surrounds himself with incompetent people. So even the travel ban doesn't really fully work. Exactly because they did it wrong. And people have said, you know, about Donald Trump when when other people write his speeches. It's hard to find the lie because other people are better at deception and putting those words into Donald Trump's exactly, but but if we weren't in his moment where you're concerned about this other aspect of Donald Trump. It seems crazy to say that one thing that's protecting America and protecting policy and keeping us safe and keeping the norms intact..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"Since any leader like Matthau, right enormously, import Putin enormously important, but Trump is a guy he's one guy and most of the stuff that Trump tries to do fails an fails impart because we're gonna build a wall. No, do you think we're gonna build the wall is Mexico gonna pay for a Mexico's not gonna pay for Mexico. It's interesting report, the Mexico pick worse. I mean, you know, I think the idea that the Americans and the Mexicans are working together to actually send more money to Central America. Try credit create conditions that will make it more conducive for refugees. Not to try to leave is a pretty constructive thing that has happened under the Trump administration that not many people talk about because the wall is much sexier even though it is not going to happen. I mean, Trump tweets very effectively and for CNN, this is a never ending plane crash. Right. He is the gift that keeps on giving to ratings and I. Get it. Right. I mean, if I am trying to focus audience engagement for CNN MSNBC a half to cover Trump all the time. But if you ask me does that in any way relate to the policies that are being passed in the United States and the policies that are not being passed nuts? If the answer is no you'd really think those you were talking about to complete countries if there were no Twitter. What would be different Trump wouldn't be president? You think literally? But for Twitter, he's not president, maybe Twitter and Facebook, I think that you know, if you look at Bolsonaro in Brazil, the new president if you look at Trump in the United States, if you look at the success that the communists and the National Front had France almost not allowing Macron to get into the second round the alternatives for Deutschland in Germany, definitely Salvini in the league Instagram for them was most important in Italy. I think that social media has facilitated these populist nationalists in ways that were completely unknown even five years ago. I think that this is the the single biggest surprise thing that just none of us expected five years ago was you would have a president who in real time could talk to not just as thirty or forty million followers. But literally all three hundred million Americans because of the pickup in the press when he wakes up in the morning and has a crazy thought in his head. That's right. His ability to create and shape, a never ending narrative and not just Trump ever changes and ever changing all across the world versus happening right is is really extra number ten years ago when we were talking about technology even five years ago, we're talking about technology. We're talking about the Arab spring. We're talking about the ability of individuals to bring down a Thawra -tarian governments because of their smartphones right because of their internet and suddenly with surveillance and big data and social media companies. It's all about the ability of a small number of populist leaders to bring. Like for like together create the opportunities for them to control the system. So you think there's a perversion now of this sort of high minded ideal of social media and that unbalanced now. Platforms like Twitter. Facebook are better for the formation of autocratic governments or better for the overthrow of autocratic governments. I think that with your one million followers. You are a nascent dictator. I don't know about nation. I know we're not sure about this a lot of people spend some time on this though. I do believe I'm one of my in here is a risk. No, you you didn't make it this year. But next year, I think you could breach the top ten do you? So do you blame the Trump presidency? More on Jack Dorsey, the CEO of Twitter or Jim Komi. Oh, no. I mean, I I guess I would probably say Dorsey at the end of the day. I really would. I think the three make news. Are we making news? We might be making news looking at the smarter people. I mean, look, I can say this Twitter is not a client. So I mean, I'm not breaching any confidentiality the violent the terms of your I'm probably violating my terms of service. If you know can follow me at at Ian Bremmer that means that I've violated terms of service. I I don't think that when Twitter got started that they actually believed that they'd make most of their coin off of you know, sort of bots and trolls and elicit accounts, but the fact that now is the case means they have a business model that requires them to sa-..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"Talk about all the time. That that's what's really led to the change. It's oppose. There's no big shock bolt. Like you described it as we had with nine eleven or as we had with the financial crisis. Are we still on enough of a downward spiral in terms of relationships being ripped asunder and deterioration in belief in our political institutions that if there's no change in no reversion back that were still on a bad slope? We are in a bad slow. That's I mean, the the point though is the two thousand nineteen does not feel like a particularly bad year for political risk. In other words with a global economy. That's expected to grow near four percent and the markets that are largely resilient to downturns still a fair amount of stimulus in the system. Still. I mean unemployment going up to three point nine percent because we're actually having more people come back into the markets. Those people are getting hired in. They're starting to get retrained, which is particularly important right older Americans. Coming back in the market that didn't know what the hell they're going to do. And now companies are hiring them in training them for a twenty nineteen economy. That's a really good thing. So I mean, clearly, I don't think twenty nineteen is where we have the wheels fall off. But the long term trends that I mentioned of the institutions in the leadership eroding of the alliances and institutions globally eroding and the rise of populism nationalism. Yeah, that's pretty clearly heading on a decisively negative trajectory over the coming years. I wish we could say this is just a matter of Trump is one term. And then he's out in it all gets fixed. There's no way about Trump. How do you take into account in your assessments of where we're going as a country as a world the things that you can't know the unexpected risks do factor that injury to sort of make your Cessnas and figure out the resiliency of those institutions to withstand something like I dunno an asteroid strike. Or an earthquake had you factor in those things that are not knowable. Yeah. I mean, a risk report is and the work that we do generally as political. Scientists is not about crystal ball gazing. It's not about saying. Oh, yeah. Like, you know, sort of we know that Putin is going to choose this person assists successor like that's unknowable, and you know, even the Brexit outcome. You're talking about scenarios and percentages. What you really want to do is talk about resilience and stability, the ability to respond to shocks as they occur and also the propensity of an individual system to create its own shocks because of the kind of system it is so a Trump administration necessarily creates more internal shocks, right? I mean, the incompetence of a President Trump in his inability to respond to challenges and threats growing around him. In fact, his propensity to make them worse. For example, the Muller investigation and others around him that creates more sensitive in dodge in shock inside the United States. You've got. A factor that into but are we looking at the next what the next bolt from the blue is going to be no, it's not that. It's not about that pound Fortner individual leaders like Trump like Macron like Merckel who you say given the fact that Macron's a twenty three percent approval in France Merckel is in the process of transitional phase out. Why does it make so much difference that there's one person in charge of a country even the significant as France or Germany how much of a difference does that make? I think it's very notable that the three leaders you mentioned are all leaders of consolidated democracies that have rule of law. They have free press. They have strong checks and balances internally politically they have deep bureaucracies, even if not deep states, and so the limitations on what those individual leaders can accomplish as well as their term limits are very severe constraints on their importance to be able to reshape the political system in their interest. If you would ask me how important is an individual leader like Irwan where suddenly he shoots down a Russian plane. What had been a good relationship becomes literally a relationship on the precipice of war within forty eight hours. Now that is a dramatic change. If you ask me, how important is an individual leader. Like, she. Asian ping who has consolidated more power.
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"And none of them are really urgent. They're not gonna blow up tomorrow. But anyone that follows this stuff has to know? It's not sustainable anyone. That follows this has to know that we're heading for seriously rough seas ahead when you say, we do you mean Americans. Do you mean everyone in the world? I mean the world because it's a global report. But yeah, I guess I also I think the US is more resilient than just about anyone. And as a consequence one of the reasons why it's going to get so bad globally is because the consequences of many of the big geopolitical dangers will be felt more acutely by others in the world, then by Americans with power. And yet, we're the ones that have the most capacity to do something about it. So the incentives there, really, aren't align. When you say bad things will happen. That's a. Broad subject. You know, it's a big boat. You're talking about do you mean war? Do you mean recession? Do you mean other kinds of international conflict and demean pestilence? I mean what what kinds of things are. You most worried about locus is what I was yet focused on. Right. I mean, what do you say here pestilence? I think locus it's just more of a biblical term most popular, no your religious background. So I figured that. That was where you were going. I mean, if you asked me what it really means. I don't know if you look at the last two major shocks there were like bolts from the blue on that hit the world two thousand eight financial crisis and nine eleven right. The interesting thing about both of those as a political scientist is that the United States responded to them by coming together. And not only that but our allies came together with us and not only that. But even people that weren't aligned with us the Russians supported us after nine eleven the CHAI. Need support us to try to get out of the two thousand eight financial crisis. There was extraordinary resilience and harmonization from the global system in responding to shock now. I do not have any idea what the next what? And when the next major both from the blue is going to be as it going to be, you know, Ebola spreads from the DRC, which David Miller band is very deeply concerned about right now is it going to be the next major cyber attack like what the Russians did against Ukraine that spreads out beyond that. And suddenly causes hundreds of billions of dollars damage is it a major terrorist attack again, or perhaps most likely is that the next major economic downturn. But what I know is that the geopolitical environment means that the response to that crisis is going to be very deeply dysfunctional. It's going to be blames manship it's going to be fragmentation. It's going to be very deeply dangerous. So why is that different now than isn't that always the case people like to blame other people? Well, given what I just said about nine eleven and two thousand eight the answer is not so much, right? No people like to blame other people. But people also respond in get in gear. When crisis comes they rally around leaders. They see the best from them. But there's so much more fragmentation geopolitically the major relationships in the world have all deteriorated so badly all of them US Russia US China transatlantic within Europe within the Middle East, literally all of those major international relationships have deteriorated significantly over the last twenty years. And that's sped up over the last several that's a real problem. And Furthermore inside our countries the legitimacy of our political institutions has eroded support for established political leaders has eroded not just in the United States. But with the exception of Japan, I would argue across pretty much every advanced industrial economy. So yeah, those two trends exacerbated by technology and social media and the filter bubble and things..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"The business of assessing risk globally for one hundred twenty years. How long twenty one year twenty one years? I started the company in nineteen ninety eight. Yeah. So before we get to this report. Is it a report you call a report gas McCall it this annual report that comes out at the beginning of the year? If you've been doing for as we said hundreds of years, call top risks. Yeah. And this one I think it's well named top risks two thousand nineteen. I it seemed like the right way to go. You know in the ozzy's you saw went with twenty eight ten again, which seemed wrong, although I might want ask you top risks twenty twenty two. Yeah. Then now, it'd be very cool. If you could assess those really can do that. But let me ask you the first sort of very fundamental question. Are we all going to die? Yes. Okay. That's all we got. Done this show. Of course, we're all gonna die. I know. But you know, what I'm about? Right. A new year. I said, you know, thank you to all of my followers into the you know, sort of one point five percent of you that aren't going to be here to see twenty twenty. I hope that you enjoy this last year. So heartwarming, very gentle I care about people. I can't I care about you in the villi. I've always felt that before we get to your to the risks. And you, and you you have a lot of stuff in this report from the Eurasia group about China about cyber about European populism about Mexico about Brexit, so many things, but I I wanna ask you how do you go about thinking about risk in global risk, and whether things will be up or down, and what the effects will be on the global economy on individual nations economies. Because obviously, you're very smart, you'll lots of very smart people, and you put together this narrative, and you make these predictions, and you make these assessments of how things are going the hell is at based on. So I mean, the first thing is the incentive structure has to be right. So we actually will leave this report on the front of our homepage for the whole damn year. And at the end of the year the last update that I write for everyone will be to riposte this and go back through and actually assess. How we've done and all the analysts know that. So it can't be seen by them as an exercise in. Hey, let's just come up with a bunch of cool stuff and who cares next week? Which is can't be that. Also, we start this in September. Like when people come back from their summer breaks and the rest, and the it's a process of fairly serious discipline. We take all the analysts from all the different offices all around the world. I mean, the firm has almost two hundred people. So I mean, it's a pretty significant thing and we beat on each other. And there's a lot of different expertise around the world. And they don't always see the world surprise surprise in the same way. And I think that you know, as you've done this for mountain glad while says, you do something for ten thousand hours. Eventually like, you know, you get pretty good at it. Or does something seriously wrong with you twenty one years of running, you know, Eurasia group at some point like you start actually being able to differentiate signal from noise do pattern recognition. So so can you can you predict the weather now? No, no, we can't break, but we can click the geopolitical weather, and what we see happening is geopolitical. Climate change. Right. I mean, this is the kind of environment where it's very obvious that most of the things that are happening in the world geopolitically are trending badly..
"bremmer" Discussed on Stay Tuned with Preet
"It's another redacted portions of the court filing in combination with media reporting has made clear that at some point implemented. Concedes this at some point Manafort a shared campaign information, including sensitive polling information from the Trump campaign with a gentleman named Mr. Kalinic who is believed to be associated with Russian intelligence that seems very very significant and that start to get to the core of what you would say collusion is why would you be sharing sensitive internal campaign. Pulling information with folks were connected to Russian intelligence now the sticking point in making a conclusion about this is what was the timing. So it seems from the reporting that Paul Manafort was giving this information during the campaign and extensively during the time that he was the campaign chairman, that's really fishy, and that starts to look like collusion. As I tape this. There has been issued a statement by Paul manafort's lawyers. The same ones who screwed up multiple times in this case saying that the meeting and the exchange of information happened well after the campaign and not until January or February of two thousand seventeen after Donald Trump was already the president elect if that is true that it's hard to understand how that could be collusion or conspiracy or aiding and abetting because the campaign was over. It also is unclear to me why if the campaign was over that information will be shared at all. So I think we need a few days to figure out. Who did what when? But at the moment, it seems very significant. But it's not clear how significant so as you can imagine there approximately a million other things we could've talked about this week so much news kind of overwhelming some of those things, including the issue of the border wall. And the possibility that Donald Trump will assert an emergency power to build his concrete or steel slat wall at the border. I talked about with Anne milgram on the new cafe insider podcast. So as many of you know, we recently launched a new thing cafe insider will we delve even more into the daily deluge of news and helped make sense of issues at the intersection of law and politics. So does this reminder members of caffeine or get access to a weekly podcast with an milligram in me where we.
Donald Trump's Walk of Fame star smashed yet again
"The poll, question, what are the results, would you ever vote for a socialist No and? It's more because I? Just think someone who's believes in socialism Hasn't really thought. It. Through very well so is probably not smart enough to represent me Wallet that's my role when it comes to. The minimum wage if a person thinks that raising the, minimum wage. Is a good idea they're not smart enough. To. Be, in office a, ninety six percents they know they'd never vote for a socialist okay now as you know Donald. Trump's, star on, the Hollywood walk of fame or whatever they call it was, smashed yet again, this week it's the at least the second time it's happened and he's he has a, he has, a star very close to Kevin Spacey, who's a well known accused molester. Gigi Gigi goo, but nobody ever touches Kevin Spacey, star but they go after Donald Trump's so they interviewed. I don't know who interviewed him but the guy Hansie. TMZ the guy turned himself in he's, he smashed at at three thirty. In the morning I don't know if cocktails, were involved but that would. Be my suspicion, and he called up the cops and. Said I'll be waiting for you they arrested him And so then he went and he. Gave. An, interview to TMZ, and here is name is Austin clay not to be confused with Austin powers or Henry clay. Go, ahead I, just felt really passionate because of what happens with the immigrants, and stripping children, away from the with the emigrants is he taught was this a protest of all the, illegal aliens, here in Massachusetts stealing all the all, the welfare benefits while they were. Dealing cocaine and, heroin your parents and that just, sort of set me off and for a while I. Kind of distance myself from politics and when I came. Back when I of came back into, politics the next started paying attention. Again to all of this going on it, just kind of let something. Off inside me Something else man But I think of the SARS and the people that you looked out on when you're going through there, that you should you should feel inspired, by, Kevin Spacey, man Bill Cosby I think Bill Cosby stars Yeah like how about Harvey Weinstein I'll bet, he's gotta start to man. Like he's, he's he's very attractive man you know like we used three hundred pounds like and take showers and wraps himself around in a bathrobe before. He, invites in sixteen year old girls now there's a man who we should all like look up to totally like, these are people, who fought against powder cultural visionaries artists or really people. Who pushed us in a positive direction I think Donald Trump represents everything that everybody with half a brain and half, a heart in, this, country presents. No like full employment man And like, getting people off welfare And, like get rid of ISIS man you know the, ones that kill kill gay people but it's okay to kill gay people over there because like, it's it's part of their culture man And so that's why I did, it Robert deniro left me a voice message to give me a high five Chelsea Chandler Chelsea, handler Sorry Chelsea Chelsea, Chandler I like her even. More than Chelsea handler I got I got a phone message from Glen Campbell I know he's, dead man, but he still called me I don't. Know how he got my number because I thought he had Alzheimer's before, he, died, but I By, the way Coquette straws legal for me now that I've vandalize the Donald Trump star Yeah I think I did a real like, like you'll get. Acts I don't feel resentful I feel I feel, proud of myself The thing that. Was difficult is I have never seen let alone picked up an, axe. Man wasn't sure which. Is and you're supposed to use dude So there it is there's your social Justice. Warrior for the day eight four four five hundred forty two, forty two so let's let's have A guy named Ian Bremmer he's a lefty and, but he's he's he's speaking the truth he. Won't be back on CNN this was. His last appearance on CNN cutthroat aggressive for. The mill but you. Asked me about the big picture so you really want, the, big picture this has been a. Good week for Trump You're fired get outta here they're, going to give them the Kirk Kurt Schlichter. Bum rush right off right off of. CNN that's all we needed to know pal CLA Scar rove I'm Howie. Carr.
UN: Record 68.5 million people displaced worldwide
"News time eleven nineteen seventy eight degrees fair skies here in boston a couple of clouds out there for the rest of the afternoon highs near eighty except for the cape and islands for we'll see highs in the mid seventies check traffic and weather together coming up in about three minutes here on wbz but first developing news homeland security secretary kirstin nielsen now drafting an order to end family separations at the border it's not the president will sign it more on that coming up in a moment meantime federal officials say immigrants accused of entering the us illegally can find where their children are through an email address and hotlines but advocates say it's just not that simple to reunite more than two thousand families separated by us officials at the border since may on wall street the dow jones down fifty five points nasdaq up fifty one and the s and p five hundred is up five back to our developing story we're following this out of washington and the ongoing battle over family separations at the border associated press now reporting homeland security secretary kirstin nielsen is drafting an order to end the practice of removing children from their parents but it's not clear whether the president will sign it nielsen has been the target of outrage by protesters of this policy last night they disrupted her dinner at a mexican restaurant yelling shame and no borders no walls of course as this story continues to develop we'll keep an eye on that for you here right on wbz wbz news time eleven twenty in other news the un says about seventy million people are currently displaced on this world refugee day about fifteen thousand refugees have been admitted to the united states so far this year but a cbs kylie outward reports that leaves the country poised to fall short of reaching its annual refugee cap by the end of the year there were sixty eight point five million displaced individuals across the world in 2017 that means that forty four thousand people were displaced every day and the us has gone through a series of different kind of levels of leading in refuge right now they're at one of their lowest in history for the fourth year running turkey was again the country with the largest number of refugees taken in mostly syrians three and a half million by the end of two thousand seventeen the us though the most new individual applications for asylum last year about three hundred thirty thousand german chancellor angela merkel rejecting president trump's tweets that migrants were behind a ten percent surge in crime in her country she says the crime stats are outdated and the president's using them to try to justify zero tolerance policies cbs's global affairs contributor ian bremmer says president trump's relationship with markle and other world leaders is tenuous i've spoken with most of the delegations now that attended the g seven summit they've all responded that the relationship was very far from the ten described by president trump they think it's deeply broken they feel that their personal relationship with trump is deeply problematic bremmer is called the president's performance at the g seven the quote geopolitical equivalent of the firing of fbi director james comey and the cardinal who wants spoke on pre sex abuse has now been removed from ministry in the catholic church former washington archbishop theodore mckarrick has been accused of sexually abusing a teen happened about fifty years ago while he was a priest in new york back in two thousand and two he spoke at the vatican about removing abusive priests from power there's probably the beginning of a real consensus that from here on in there is no place in the priesthood for someone who would do such a thing pointing to the washington post cardinal timothy dolan of new york investigated these allegations against mccarrick and found them to be credible seattle's about to become the first city in the country to ban straws that are that are plastic in restaurants with plastic utensils snooze city ordinance goes into effect on july first supporters of that band say half a billion plastic straws go into the world's oceans every year and caused significant environmental damage a critical.