30 Burst results for "Brainard"
A highlight from 1197. Elizabeth Warren Demands More Crypto Taxes Pro-CBDC Army vs Stablecoins
"So, Elizabeth Warren up to her antics again, this time using taxes, using CBDC, and many other tools to her disposal to try to take a position against crypto. We're going to be breaking down all of this for you guys today. My name is Paul Baron. Welcome back into Tech Path. I want to get into the first story here. Democrat senators want Treasury, IRS, to pick up the pace on crypto tax rules. So a few things that I want to break down in this article so you kind of know who the players are. I'm going to zoom in on this one. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Robert Casey, and then Richard Blumenthal, all involved in this. The idea is pretty simple. Treasury and IRS have until the end of the year to finalize new rules to help close the estimated $50 billion crypto tax gap. Now, this is something we'll break down because this is not necessarily the real scenario. It's what they're proposing out there. The other thing they want to put in here is, without quick action, your agencies are at risk of failing to meet congressionally mandated deadlines and the implementation of the final rule. We urge that you act swiftly and implement strong crypto tax reporting rules for cryptocurrency brokers. All of this, which we'll get into, one of the things the industry has said has become very antsy waiting on guidance, particularly with regards to the IRS defines a broker. Industry observers have claimed that the broker definition is very broad. We all know that because it could include miners and also software developers. That's another problem that already exists in crypto of who is a broker. And then secondly, or additionally, what are we hoping for? An industry perspective that is updated with the 6045 regulation, which basically gives different qualifications based on type of activity. The other thing they break down is it'll hopefully make it clear that not everyone effectuating a transfer of a digital asset would be subjected to a broker reporting. So this gets into some of the details of when taxes do apply, and we'll show a little bit more about this. The letter, the senatorial letter, comes days after the IRS issued new guidance update in 6045 regarding crypto staking, which is the other part of this that's pretty big, in which the agency ruled that staking income, regardless of the gains are realized, will be taxed as income. So you have to think about that for a second. You're staking ETH, you get ETH in return. You haven't sold ETH, but you're taking that as an income. That is the argument I think that everybody, of course, is up in arms about. If a cash method taxpayer takes stakes cryptocurrency native to a proof of stake blockchain and receives additional units of cryptocurrency as rewards, which is what happens here when the validation occurs, the fair market value of the validation rewards received is included in the taxpayer's gross income. So if you are staking, that's a problem. The interesting thing is that you do not take tax gains if you're putting that in a money market and you're getting paid interest. That's not gains until you exit those kind of scenarios. So this is an interesting aspect of how the IRS and how Elizabeth Warren is really putting pressure on it. Another point I want to get to here. This was coming from the 2021 Infrastructure Investment Employment Act, which is where all this came from. But basically, it said if we do not act quickly, that is, if the Treasury and the IRS do not implement these new rules in a timely manner, we risk missing out on roughly $1 .5 billion in tax revenue for fiscal 2024. At this point, you should not give this chance to tax evaders, which is what they're calling crypto people. And I think this is something that people don't realize just how much taxes are being paid by people in crypto. In fact, countries with the most taxpayers currently in cryptocurrency, United States leading the way, number one, Japan, number two, Germany, United Kingdom, and Austria. So you can kind of see we're already handling this because crypto is like any other really asset out there if you think about it. If you take a gain, if you sell an asset and you take a gain, that's a capital gains tax. And it applies to capital gains rules. Those are the same kind of scenarios that play into it. What I don't necessarily think is going to be popular is for them to continue to reach in to these unrealized gains, like taking unrealized gains and taxing them in any other corporate infrastructure, just not necessarily the model in which this plays out. The other thing that income tax is payable on is you're getting paid in crypto. That's revenue. So you're paying tax on that. You get an airdrop. That's a new asset you've received. Getting taxes on that. Staking rewards. That's the other scenario that plays into this. DeFi interest. Mining rewards and then even referral bonuses. All of those are income taxable at this time. There was a couple of things here in a report from CoinLedger that I want to showcase. And this was really kind of going through the people in their survey of who understood when a taxable event occurs. So 65 % of investors correctly identified that selling cryptocurrency is a taxable event. Now you have to sell it for a profit, of course. If you sell it for a loss, that's not obviously a taxable event. But only 38 % of the investors correctly identified that a crypto -to -crypto trade is a taxable event. So this is still questioning and also it's still not completely clear so that the IRS, but also even your tax preparers understand really what's happening out there in the place. And I think, again, this all goes back down into regulation, which will flow into the tax code and many other aspects. This is kind of interesting right here. This was further from the CoinLedger report. 50 % of non -taxpayers don't report because they haven't made a profit currently in cryptocurrency. You have to remember the last two years, really since 2021, almost anybody in crypto, along with other assets out there, have been in the negative. Right now, haven't made a profit, so you're not going to be paying taxes on that. I didn't know I had to report. Some people said that. I don't understand how to report, 12%, and then I don't want to pay taxes, 7%. So that should have been larger. Government doesn't know about my cryptocurrency. Okay, those are the bad guys right there. So the likelihood is if you guys are watching our show and maybe you're brand new to crypto, it's treated like any other asset class. Doesn't have any really differentiation. It is money. If you're taking it as revenue, if you're taking it as income, if you're taking a sale and getting profit from it, you're going to be able to take taxes at that time. Those are taxable events. The other problem is that it's not like an investment if you do lose money where you get to use that as a tax loss. So that's another problem of how this could. Now you can do some tax loss harvesting, of course, obviously you should get with your own CPA to understand how that works. I want to go to a clip here because the clip will go into a little bit about where, and we're kind of transitioning out of taxes into CBDC, but where Warren stands on CBDCs. Let's know what she said. So that's not so hard on stablecoins. The harder one is what do you think Bitcoin is about? If you think it's about being able to transfer value without having to go through banks, and little side note, I think banks have done a really bad job of a lot of the things they're called on to do. Yeah, the biggest advocates of Bitcoin sound like you. Yeah. Meaning they want to break up these big banks have been terrible, right? That's exactly right. And they've cheated consumers and they've kept prices high and they're slow and they won't cash a check. Five to seven days to three to five days. There you go. And it was a huge victory. Huge victory, right? That they only held onto your money for five to seven days. So a lot that banks do wrong, if you think we could improve that in a digital world, the answer is sure you could. But in that case, let's do a central bank digital currency. Are you there? Oh, for a central bank digital currency? Yes. All right, so you can see she's very pro central bank digital currencies. If you look at Warren Davidson's tweet right here, in America, CBDC should be banned. This was one option, a jailable criminal offense declaration of war and implemented. Obviously that was his kind of poking fun at, but banned is the big one is that we shouldn't use it. This is a big scenario that plays out, has been playing out for quite some time on the CBDC front. So let's just understand that CBDCs, if we do get to that, and I think this is one of the reasons that obviously crypto in general has been more popular and started to become more popular around the world, especially in countries that already have problems with their fiat. And I think that is going to be an issue that will continue to face here in the U .S. of how that does play out on a digital currency. If you look at what's happening in China, obviously their social credit system is all tied to eventually to the money. So definitely a problem. Now the other things that play into this is that there could be some scenarios right now where Gensler is going to start trying to do some other things to try to deflect maybe a possible loss that could be coming at him. One of the things that's happening right now, this of course, hacks crypto founder used investor funds to buy almost four and a half million Black Diamonds. This is the SEC. So this again is nefarious actors like Richard Hart and others that have been in the crypto space. Listen, this is not the only place that has those kinds of actors out there, but this is a good example of just how the SEC is trying to go in and deflect a little bit. Here was one of the things they charged, SEC charges 18 Utah defendants with a $50 million crypto fraud scheme. So again, Gensler and the SEC are on the warpath right now. And I always wonder why, because these are small fraud. And I look at this, they're definitely not a Binance, they're not an FDX, and they're definitely not a Coinbase. So why are they going out after these very low hanging, I'm sure they should, but it's almost making mountains out of molehills in the kind of scenario that this is faced into right now. Are they maybe setting up for deflecting off of a potential big loss, such as possibly an approval through the House on these crypto bills? Just to give you an idea of just how close Gensler is to the regulatory and the political landscape, look at the timing here. January 12th, this was 2023, he sued Genesis. During that time, we had the House Financial Services Committee announcing their subcommittee on digital assets, so nice timing there. February 12th through the 14th, Wall Street comes in and says they've issued a Wells Notice for Paxos. At the same time, you had a committee hearing on crypto crash, why financial system safeguards are needed. Then you had this one, March 19th, he goes in and he publishes the op -ed in The Hill, and then you had the Senate Ag Committee saying we're going to do these crypto hearings. Then he does April 27th, and you can kind of see it just all ties in to activity that's happening in the political forefront. He is coming in, or the SEC coming in, and timing is everything. So the reality is that all of this is going to play into the hands, I think, of the industry and also to the lawmakers understanding what the SEC's overreach has been. So it's going to be one that will probably play out in a very short period of time. I want to go to this next clip of Ron Hammond from Blockchain Association. Listen in. At least in the market structure bill, which again, got more votes than the stablecoin bill from Democrats, which blew everyone's mind in D .C. No one expected that to have ever happened. We were expecting like four or five. We had six Democrats join. Stablecoins were expecting 12 or so Democrats to join. We only got five. All right. So simply kind of taking a little bit of a victory lap of what has happened here recently on the House floor in terms of the committees and getting ready to send both of these bills to the House for a potential vote. This will happen in September. Let's take a listen to this next clip on Hammond on Gensler. And I think the market structure vote in particular just shows how much he's lost his own party in terms of buying the narrative that, A, the status quo is fine, B, there's no need for legislation, and three, he's doing a good job on the enforcement end. And we saw that on all three arguments from different Democrats fail each time. And I think the fact that there's six Democrats who bucked their own party, who bucked the SEC and said, yeah, we're going to advance the market structure bill forward. Even the House Act Committee said, yeah, we're going to advance this bill forward, too, without any opposition recorded. That's huge. All right. So I think the play out on this, you know, when you look at the current landscape right now of what Warren's attack is, the crypto army, you look at the positioning that really D .C. is doing currently, and now could this play into the political landscape for 2024? Yes, it could. But the bigger play here, I think, is still the regulatory front. And that means that either the SEC is going to lose some of its power and the CFTC is going to come in and start to have a little bit more divvy up of what digital assets and how they're controlled through these government agencies. But really, how does this play out maybe into the future? This note right here from the block, they were talking about the commission being the SEC has so far received 52 letters about these proposed funds. This is in reference to ETFs, with most of them expressing support. So it's very possible that we could see an ETF actually get passed here. And you've seen some of the things we've talked about here on the channel before in the last couple of weeks, you know, everything from the Bloomberg team and so on around the potential of the ETF getting passed, the Bitcoin ETF. If that does get passed, that would be huge for the market, would absolutely legitimize what's happening in this space. And I think it would probably, in most cases, put so much pressure on D .C. that they have to move to going in and actually getting some landscape in play. Most of the comments against the approval appeared in multiple letters from a business consultant calling themselves the due diligence. I think basically this is a bunch of banks tied in behind this and this was the counter argument to what an ETF should be. So there is full political folly in play here and it is happening at, I think, light speed right now, much faster than what I anticipated even. One of the last things here is the comment period wraps up next week. So the SEC accepting letters for the final funds around August 11. So meaning that Gensler is getting ready to have to actually make some decision either for or against or a delay, which is probably what most likely will happen. But the good thing is that, like I said, there's going to be a potential right now which keeps increasing of a potential approval coming from some of the best ETF experts in the world that are analyzing where the situation is and kind of how it's going forward. Additionally, you've got anti -crypto movement now escalating Congress's assault on privacy. This is where a lot of people are starting to look at the idea of cash and just personal privacy, which is one of the biggest issues really around the world. And if you think about just how important that is, this would give you an example, cash matters, free citizens entitled to privacy and the protection of their data. In the UK, 74 % of people say cashless society would take away the people's right to choose. In the U .S., it's 73%. When it comes to purchases, personal preferences should remain exactly that, simply meaning that with a CBDC, we all know what that means, the control of the cash, control of what you spend on, then it gets into the control of what you spend on based on your political viewpoints or other aspects of your life that all start to play it. So cash does pretty much empower citizens to become capable of kind of voting with their wallets. And I think this is a very critical scenario that's playing out right now. CBDCs will be a big part of this. So you've got CBDCs happening, you've got what we're going to be dealing with on a taxable side and then the legislative. So all of this happening right now, literally in 2023, and it seems to be coming to a head very quickly. I think as we move forward, there's going to be two things that come out of this, and that is how these bills start to move their way through Congress and eventually, if we do get approvals, to the president's desk. Here's of course, the Senator Lummis and Gillibrand bill. Just another piece of legislation that is making its way through. Most likely, this is one that will not happen, mainly because of the association and the collaboration, I think, with the ICC. The bill involves a broader swath of agencies, so this is kind of interesting because it gets into the Office for Foreign Asset Control, the FTC, OFAC, FinCEN, et cetera. The SEC is provided also with something that a section -by -section overview claims resolves a long -standing issue with the SEC custody requirements. Probably the bill that will not make its way through, which gives us back to the scenario of the two bills that are currently on the floor that most likely will make it. So good news, I think, in general, bad news for the crypto army and CBDC is still coming to a head, but I think the good thing here is that, in many cases, it's like bad PR is even good PR, but the point is that the industry, lawmakers, finance community, they're all talking about crypto, and in the end, that is good for the asset class. One other thing that did happen, which is kind of interesting, this was a letter to Tim Cook, and we did a full video on this, so I won't go into the detail of this, but mainly it was trying to get Apple to get less and less constrictive on asset classes that are making their way through apps or innovation that are involved with blockchain. One of the things that they got into was purposely limiting choice and stifling innovation at the expense of user experience. This is a problem that Apple kind of faces for quite some time. And we broke down a lot of this, but the big deal is this right here, responding to the following questions no later than 5 p .m. on August 14th. So this is another issue that is coming to a head here in August of Apple having to actually address what's happening in Capitol Hill around the blockchain and the crypto industry as a whole. So again, just another big benefit, I think, for where this market is going. I want to go to this next clip here, and this is again Ron Hammond, on where he thinks Apple's position is. Listen in. But this is a bipartisan letter from the leaders of the subcommittee on innovation. That sends a message that says, look, I mean, Apple's getting hit on a number of fronts, but this definitely sends a message saying, you know, hey, look, you're on the clock right now. We're looking at you. So that committee is going to be taking more of a role over time because we've seen this talk and this narrative of crypto really shift more and more in D .C., at least, talking about the tech itself, which is perfect, is exactly what I want to talk about, the innovation and the technology itself. And that's the Energy and Commerce Committee. That's a bipartisan letter that sends a pretty good warning shot to others in the industry saying, look, you know, crypto is here to stay. We have concerns that the U .S. are probably blocking them out. And that's not good on our watch. All right. So I think this is one of those things, again, that the thwarting of innovation is a concern here in the United States because it's one of the things that pretty much pushed the U .S. ahead of the entire planet when it comes to really capital growth, entrepreneurship, how we grow our own economies, but more importantly, our position in the hierarchy of the global structure in terms of just being the global power. And I think if you consider that, you have to look at what's happening in Europe. And with the EU, markets and crypto assets regulation, this is MICA, this is a regulation that's pretty much been in place, and it's now starting to take form. And one of the things that you have to kind of look at here is their consultation package three. These are all actually happening now. Qualification of crypto assets and financial instruments, monitoring detection, notification of market abuse, investor protection is happening, you can kind of see the things there on reverse solicitation, policies, procedures, all that. System resilience and security access, all that is building. Mainly what is going on right now in MICA is they're prepping to get all of this regulation in place so that they can roll out this program. And when they do, it is going to put the EU at the front and center of one of the biggest asset classes that has ever been created. This is the power of what crypto and blockchain is bringing to the planet. And that's why I think we are seeing all of this scrambling going on here in 2023 in the U .S. Look at the timeline here of MICA. June hits, publication goes out. July, the consultation package one already rolls out. October of this year, we're going to see package two. And then by Q1, that's when that consultation package three goes into play. And then we have early entry into the application and then the rollout by end of next year. So this is pretty significant. Further into their rollout, this kind of, let me kind of zoom out on this a little bit. This shows more background on all the transitional measurements that are going to take place. And this looks complicated, but really what it simply means is these are the deadlines that they're trying to meet to get all of the organizations that are applying for regulatory position in the EU into play so that they can go into the markets with all of these things in a legal way. And I think that is what is interesting. I think they're going to stay very sharp on these timelines because they don't want to look stupid. And right now, the world is watching. Everybody's looking at this. Asia's watching this now. The U .S. is pretty much on a big race with it. I want to go to a next clip here. And this next clip is a little bit more about the BRICs, now why the BRICs matter. And listen to this one. This is an important one. Yeah. So BRICs is a collection of countries that are trying to find an alternative to what they see as the hegemonic dollar based U .S. run global economy. So BRIC stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa. But what happened in the wake of the Ukraine invasion is that the U .S. seized Russia's presumably to try to set off a banking crisis. Now, ironically enough, for separate reasons, our banks crashed. But anyway, that didn't work. But the problem, yeah, the problem is that every country on earth saw that happen. All right. And you've got now all these countries that they were never really hostile to the U .S., but they're starting to wonder now, could they come after me? Could they try to crash my banks? But at this point now it's accelerating. And so they've got a meeting coming up in August. And one of the items that may or may not be on the agenda is the prospect of a gold backed BRICs currency. What I think is interesting is that if any country did gold back a widely used currency, that would I mean, it would be catastrophic for the U .S. dollar. Right. That would give the world an alternative sort of payment rail that is even stronger than the dollar is today. All right. So hopefully you guys are seeing how all of this is connected. You go from everything that Elizabeth Warren is doing on the legislative front to basically tax Americans, kind of setting up the scale of what and how this asset class is going to be dealt with, to how we're going to control the digital dollar, which is the CBDC, and whether or not FedNow will play into that in the future. Then you tie into all this regulatory framework. And then lastly, but not least, is BRICs and their importance on the global front. If you look at this tweet right here on World Statistics, GDP at purchasing power parity of the world. Here's the G7. You can kind of see U .S., Japan, et cetera, all the way in there, 45 percent 1993, all the way down to 2028, around 27 percent. The BRICS nations, all the way down to 2028, they will actually accelerate over the GDP of the G7. This is pretty significant because all this was, again, projected by the IMF, the International Monetary Fund. One of the things around this is whether or not, and St. Auge talked about that, Peter, the guy that we just did a clip on, he talked about the importance of this gold -backed dollar or BRICS currency. If that were to occur, that would be, as he said, catastrophic for not only the U .S. dollar, but I think catastrophic for the globe because we would see a shift in power pretty quickly. So here's the alliance right here. This is a scary picture. BRICS alliance will discuss the usage of local currencies for cross -border transactions in the upcoming summit in August. Now, the good thing, the good news, if there is some, is they're talking about using local currency as opposed to gold. Had they used gold, that would have been a huge blow into, really, the future of the U .S. dollar, and they still may go that direction, so you have to be considering that. Again, why is it important to be investing in cryptocurrencies or digital assets? We've just painted out a picture for you and the reasons why all of this flows up in a very interesting domino effect toward how just monetary systems are going to be run in the next 100 years. Stablecoins' potential counter to de -dollarization, that's a big part of this. So in this particular scenario of this article, people familiar with the talk said that the last moment the White House National Economic Council, this was Lael Brainard, dumped cold water on this stablecoin bill saying it didn't put federal regulators in a strong enough role. And remember, if you'll recall, we did a video on this where, of course, Patrick McHenry and Maxine Waters were negotiating that. And there seemed to be an agreement prior to going to the vote. And then at the last minute, Maxine Waters pretty much got the phone call from the red phone and that was dislodged. And then, of course, McHenry went to the floor with what was the old bill that did not have all the changes in it. So again, a lot of politics being played out right here in D .C. And again, this is very important because of the global position and what we are trying to do to essentially compete at a very high level. I want to close this out quickly with our last clip here. This is just the stablecoin timeline from the Blockchain Association listening. It does, unfortunately, hinder it a little bit, but I've had conversations with staff and members of Congress after the fact, and they seem very gung ho in trying to resolve this issue before the whole entire House votes on that bill. But likely what's going to happen is that in the fall, there's going to be a general House floor vote. Every member of the House gets a vote on this, which, again, it's a lot of education. So I've already had some Republicans reach out to me for more the right wing of the caucus saying the stablecoin bill is just a CBDC bill. And it's like, no, it's not. It's nothing related to that. On the left, we're seeing a little more consumer protection concerns and also just the general crypto skeptic concern as well. So August, we're going to have a break and in the fall, you're going to have a vote, right? Exactly. But I think for sure in twenty twenty three, we'll have a general vote on the House floor. And then you can see for yourself what your members of Congress are supporting crypto or guardrails for crypto and which ones say, you know, nah, you know, I don't I think the status quo is fine. All right, so big actions happening this fall and part of this will, of course, will be the stablecoin bill, but also crypto and digital assets in general hitting the House floor. This and as Hammond said, this will be a critical time because the scenario that plays into this right now is it's going to showcase into a lot of what we'll see in the political runs and the campaigns that are being run next year in twenty twenty four. So this could become a little bit more of a voting scenario. So hopefully this has given you guys a rundown. I know it's it's it is a lot here to to kind of digest. If you're new to our channel, we try to break these down. And I promise we're going to try to get these in a little bit, maybe smaller bite sizes. But you can see the breadth of what's happening globally, especially here in the United States right now, because this is a fight for your wallet. And that's why it's so important and that's why we're seeing so much activity happen. You guys are part of the Diamond Circle. Great. Glad to have you in. But if you're not, make sure and join. All you have to do is click the link down below. We we do, of course, a podcast over there, a lot of additional research. I even do additional analysis over there. So it's a great place for you to start here with the PBN team. And of course, it's the best way to get to us. Just go to our website. You can join right there. Of course, if you're not following me at that out there on X, it's just at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next time right here on Tech Path. We'll be right back.
Fresh update on "brainard" discussed on Evangelism on SermonAudio
"I bring you good tidings of great joy Which shall be for all people what is that news for unto you is born this day in the city of David a Savior which is Christ the Lord That message is good tidings It's the good news of the gospel Implied in what the angels said is a lot of gospel truth the need for a Savior the incarnation of God himself and many many things But again good tidings, that's what an evangelist does they bring the good news of the gospel Of course you're thinking about I'm sure the Great Commission Matthew 28 verse 19 go you therefore into all and teach all nations Baptizing them in the name of the Father the Son and of the Holy Ghost That was not In the first case that was speaking to the Apostles but of course the Apostles could not go into all the world and so by way of extension the good that the Great Commission is Under the authority of the Son of God was that we are to go and bring this good news teaching baptizing etc You are again under this broad thinking of evangelism you are an ambassador for Christ Now then we as ambassadors for Christ it was as though God did beseech you by us We pray you in Christ's dead be ye reconciled to God Paul here says a tremendous truth and Really? We are all ambassadors For Christ we're ambassadors because the love of Christ has constrained us he says We're ambassadors because he said that he has committed to us the word of reconciliation If you think about an earthly ambassador They don't wake up in the morning and put a suit on and go to go to the office and now they were in an ambassador they are an ambassador 24-7 and their task is to represent with dignity with honesty Without their own agenda a very proactively they are to represent their country And this is what a Christian where their lifestyle the printed page that we might hand out the word This this idea of you as an ambassador as an evangelist Involved and worried about evangelism this very broad way Touches us all but having said that There isn't a scripture a very I will say a special spiritual gift certainly a burden a calling It might not be an office. There's debate from the commentators Is it an office is it but the Bible talks about someone who has spiritually been gifted as an evangelist who goes? over and above the normal sphere of Spiritual gift I do believe it is a special calling and I believe Consequent with that calling it is the burden that moves that evangelist to do what he does The first scripture I have Ephesians chapter 4 verse 11 and 12 After God after Christ ascended on high it says he gave gifts unto men He gave some apostles some prophets some evangelists and some pastors and teachers For the perfecting of the Saints for the work of the ministry for the edifying of the body of Christ He gave some evangelists This this gift seems to to be talking about this particular man who has a gospel laborer Will go into the fields of the world With a very specific task of bringing the good news the glad tidings of the gospel He's uniquely qualified to evangelize We're gonna look at some of the characteristics of an evangelist But but there's one that really kind of jumps out I believe and in my mind immediately sets this man apart as Evangelist and that is he is he is an extension of The church he is called by God. He often is called by the church to go into areas outside of the church to places where the word is not known to places where the word is needed and In this sense, they're distinguished from pastors and teachers the evangelist itinerates from place to place outside the church to bring the Word of God to either where he is directed by his home church or where God has directed him to go and where he has firsthand knowledge That the Word of God needs to be brought We think of individuals like George Whitfield who as An evangelist would bring God's Word to places where they needed to hear the Word of God Sometimes he was shut out from churches because they did not like His gospel preaching that did not stop him. He would preach in open fields. He would go to the marketplace he would bring God's Word and history has Shown us his great success Sometimes we think of missionaries as Evangelist but it's a spiritual gift to undertake a spiritual labor by the power of God Today often there is a different connotation of what an evangelist does There is perhaps a revival meeting set and a special speaker who's called an evangelist will come in they'll typically have a person who does special music with him and and they arrange these meetings because either The pastor is hoping that this evangelist will say the things that he's afraid to say Or he wants this evangelist who has this charisma or this personality To to get the people charged up and ignited and and wants something to happen That's not the biblical definition of who an evangelist is an evangelist itinerates he goes out here and there to Preach the gospel what separates him from the pastor teacher is God has said the pastor teachers duty station is the church It's a stationary location the pastor teacher is to to be here with the flock to teach to exhort to admonish and To grow under the power of the Holy Spirit to grow the church. It's in spiritual growth Whereas the evangelist goes out? Hither tither and yawn that's that's just one aspect of an evangelist that in my mind sets him apart We as laymen at laypeople. We have these concentric circles of family friends and and neighbors or co-workers that we try to evangelize But the evangelist goes outside of those concentric circles God has gifted him to do that In the broader context of the world the evangelist goes out When pastor Joe and myself ministered at the prisons We were not there as a pastor we were there as an evangelist We were going outside of our normal sphere of influence. We didn't live in prison Although we might have belonged there Those Individuals were not someone we saw on a normal basis Although we did get to know some of them on a first-name basis who were faithful to come to that church But we were not there as a pastor. We were trying to do the work of an evangelist going outside of our sphere of influence Our brother Gerard when he goes to Cal Berkeley He goes there to to witness as an evangelist. He does not live there He lives down in in Fremont Newark. He doesn't go to school at Berkeley He goes outside of his normal sphere of influence to to witness to the truth There this is what a Holy Spirit called evangelist does he goes into the broader context of the world to bring? The good news of the gospel of Jesus Christ Ephesians 4 verse 11. It's a stated spiritual gift So Secondly the need is there a need for evangelists Biblical evangelists in today's world. Let me give you two thoughts. And of course you would say well, of course, there's a need First thing I'd like to say is if you look at Matthew chapter 9 verses 37 and 38, you know this verse you don't need to turn there, but Jesus had told his disciples. He said the harvest truly is plenteous But the laborers are few Pray ye therefore the Lord of the harvest that he would send forth laborers into his harvest You could not mistake the imagery here that our Lord is using he he first was talking about sheep without a shepherd and Then he switches the imagery to talk about fields that are ready for the harvest In John 4 he says the fields are white into the harvest Which is really interesting because it's the context of the Samaritan woman He's saying there's Gentiles that need to be reaped and harvested in But think about this word that a Lord told the disciples He said to them directly pray That the Lord of the harvest that he would send laborers into his harvest He did not tell the Apostles and the Seventy. Hey, you're not doing enough work for as an evangelist He did not tell them you need to get a better method He said pray that God would raise up others Because the work is too big Other dedicated laborers as harvesters need to be put and thrust into the field It's really interesting. It's the Lord of the harvest. God should be sought for laborers because the harvest Is too big it's his harvest. There's a need For gospel laborers really in the broad sense deacons pastors elders teachers and evangelists And if you survey churches out there today, you'll see the significant numbers of pastor teachers elders deacons People who's serving with their gifts of hospitality and mercy But are there evangelists We have some huckster evangelists We have some gimmicky evangelists But we have some biblical evangelists Jesus said pray that God would send out laborers into that field that's ready to be harvested outside of their sphere of influence into my vineyard But second thing I want to say about the need if you think back about our Ephesians passage He gave some apostles some prophets some evangelists some pastors teachers For the perfecting of the saints for the work of the ministry for the edifying of the body of Christ We ask the question why why all of this gospel machinery Is it efficient Is there another way? Another business model that we can we can come up with to get this work done But the very next verse tells us what God's end game is what the long-term goal is he says all of this people need to be the gifted and and thrust into the ministry because We have to all Come in the unity of the faith And of the knowledge of the son of God unto a perfect man unto the measure of the stature of the fullness of Christ In other words the end goal Is so spiritually tremendous It's such of a high calling There has to be there by necessity much labor To to even begin to get this work done these five callings Or gifts are absolutely essential And all five of these working together support each other feed off of each other so that the Christian Can Come to the knowledge of the son of God And to a perfect man And unto the measure of the stature of the fullness of Christ You think about our lord's image imagery of the harvest we we we know that that imagery is used often throughout the bible And the connotation is is planting Maybe plowing first then planting and then watering and pruning and and fruit bearing and harvesting eventually A lot of aspects of the same work to get the final fruit Again I believe the scripture isolates an evangelist as one who different from the rest of us Has this the singular spiritual gift to to go outside of those normal concentric circles of of witnessing to bring the good news And the need for evangelism an evangelist obviously Evangelism in general, but this evangelist the need is great. He is an answer to the prayer That God would grant laborers into his vineyard So thirdly I want to talk about the example of Philip the evangelist and if you If we think about Philip the evangelist and we trace his life through in the book of acts We'll find these other characteristics of what an evangelist does how he thinks how he acts what what his makeup Is besides just going outside? of the normal sphere of influence In acts chapter 21 and verse 8 It designates Philip as an evangelist we read and the next day We that were of Paul's company departed and came unto Caesarea And we entered it into the house of Philip the evangelist Which was one of the seven? And we abode with him Philip the evangelist The bible highlights a few things about him And we need to think about these relative to Philip as an evangelist Philip is first mentioned in the book of acts Chapter chapter 6 where he was actually one of the first deacons The deacons were chosen to attend the the temporal affairs of the church in jerusalem So that the murmurings would stop And also so that the elders could give themselves to prayer and the word of god And so the deacons were called to wait tables to take care of Logistical administrative functional type things And for someone to do that they need to be spiritually minded They're willing to wait tables if it means the word of god will progress and and make an info They'll sweep the floor They'll they'll do whatever it takes So that somebody else had been the word of god so We deduced that stephen was a very spiritual man He was concerned about the glory of god in the church And the bible tells us that these deacons the elders gave this responsibility to the church And they said you look out among yourself And they gave two qualifications this person has to be filled with the holy ghost And they have to have wisdom So And I think There's a third one, of course, they had to have a reputation among the brethren Because the brethren were the one that said hey this individual Can do this specific work But these two traits I think or three traits Characterize an evangelist they characterized philip the evangelist full of the holy ghost Wisdom And they had a reputation among the brethren to be this very kind of an individual You know an evangelist needs wisdom An evangelist is not a street preacher whose persona is to take no hostages And be like a bull in a china shop and we've all probably seen the youtube videos of of several street preachers and I think G if I was asking questions about why am I here and who is god and How can I be right with god and is there a heaven? I would want to ask that person to buy my head off I want to have someone who and the person who evangelized me He had wisdom And he was patient with me He didn't want to see immediate results He would give me some scriptures to think about that and i'll come back tomorrow. We'll talk some more They have to have wisdom Next we meet We meet philip the evangelist After the martyrdom of stephen, it says philip the evangelist went to the city of samaria where he preached quote with much success simon magus Being one of his converts. Okay, so now Philip the evangelist goes into the city of samaria to preach the gospel And if you know the story about simon magus he used sorcery He was somebody in the city And he had a large following And under the the power and work of god the preaching of this evangelist philip the people Were brought into the kingdom of god before simon magus But then simon magus this this great individual he thought Who had many followers scripture says he was held in high regard he became a believer And what's implied about philip the evangelist was that he was bold to go into this type of place to preach And he had this winsome personality and he was equipped To be used by the holy spirit to share the word So Think about an individual who goes into this type of a scenario Where there's already an individual who's the king as it were and followers And philip is able to go and convince of the kingdom of god To such a degree that even simon magus who later had a few problems, but he was a believer Was joined into the household of faith afterwards The scripture says that the angel of the lord Directed philip the evangelist to go to that road between jerusalem and gaza And there he met the ethiopian eunuch that tremendous story where This individual is reading isaiah 53 And philip the evangelist Sees this open door Here's a person who's reading maybe out loud even isaiah 53 At the very least it's a believer and he can have some fellowship with him At the very worst he's not a believer and he runs up to him and said you understand what you're reading And as you know that story he he directed him into the kingdom of god and then he baptized him Here we see philip Abel knowledgeable in the word of god In the old testament he was encouraging He he was positive again philip was not intimidated to say Here he is reading the bible and he has to say I I don't know what i'm reading But he was not afraid to to say that to philip philip must have had this this demeanor a spirit-led demeanor to be approachable Scripture goes on to say as we talk about philip the evangelist that the spirit caught him away To ashdod And it says passing through there He preached in all of the cities Until he came to sassaria So here we see that it was his manner of life There was this constancy. It was normal For philip to preach the gospel This is just what he did. This is who he was. This was in his spiritual dna As he passed through these cities to preach the gospel And then later the verse that I started off with in acts 21 where he is called philip the evangelist and paul Has heard of his reputation and wants to go in And abide with him I believe when you you do just a cursory Study of philip the evangelist you see these characteristics That that god has gifted this individual to do a very specific task He's working outside of his normal sphere of influence very naturally gifted to do so servant-minded Led by the spirit of god Knowledgeable of the word of god philip could probably preach the gospel from any chapter of any book in the bible He was seeking to build up the church He was able to disciple others He had discernment. He had wisdom He was bold This is the role of the evangelist Philip is a great example fourthly under our main point some principles and precepts of evangelist evangelism what an evangelist does just by way of of precept And here i'd like you to turn if you would to ecclesiastes chapter 11 And in a way by way of application make a few Uh points here, but obviously as you're turning there an evangelist Is not trying to make a calvinist An evangelist is not trying to force his personal pet peeves or his doctrinal soap boxes upon this individual he wants to preach the word and leave room for the holy spirit to work in an individual individual's life Leave room for the holy spirit not not force the issue Like beating a piece of metal with a hammer trying to get it into a form Scatter the seed stand back and see what the holy spirit does This this evangelist is not trying to make a name for himself He's not trying to get a following for himself he he doesn't want to create this street preacher persona But just a couple of precepts for evangelism that the evangelist uses I believe Ecclesiastes chapter 11 verse 1 cast thy bread upon the waters For thou shalt find it after many days Give a portion to seven and also to eight For thou knowest not what evil shall be upon the earth If the clouds are full of rain They empty themselves upon the earth If the tree falls towards the south or toward the north in the place where the tree falls There it shall be He that observes the wind Will not sow And he that regards the clouds will not reap As thou knowest not what is the way of the spirit Nor how the bones do grow in the womb a fur that is with child Even so thou knowest not the works of god who maketh all In the morning Sow thy seed and in the evening withhold not thine hand For thou knowest not which shall prosper either this or that Or whether they both alike shall be good I believe that we can draw by at least by way of application Um, some think this is talking about charity. You should be charitable charitable to others. So you get charity back I don't think that's what it's talking about. I think we can at the very least by way of application Draw some thoughts here about evangelism sharing the word Just three very briefly we evangelize with a promise Cast your bread upon the waters and after many days You will find it In other words your labor is not in vain in the lord If we sow the spiritual seed If we sow the seed of the word of god and not our pet peeves or not a systematic theology Not our opinions or our topics If we sow the word of god it cannot return to him void If we sow the true bread Not the fluffy white wonder bread of modern evangelism if we sow the true bread After many days I have to wait I have to be patient. I have to depend upon god. It's come to that Yes after many days Thou shall find it. There's not a lot of ethiopian eunuchs Who you're just going to happen to bump into that are reading isaiah 53 that you can? Jump all over, right? True conversion is a very hard thing, right? It's it's really difficult when you have to count the cost You have to reject previously held religious ideas and concepts There's personal soul searching my friend who evangelized me He knew that I was going through a lot of soul searching and asking questions because I had been brought up in another religion And I had to reject certain stuff and try to see where this this gospel fit into my life There was the seed planted and the germinating And the watering and the fertilizing and and then the growth We evangelize an evangelist goes out there with this promise I think he's able to grasp this promise Maybe better than others you will find it after many days Psalm 126 verse 5 they that sow in tears shall reap in joy He that goeth forth weeping and bearing precious seed shall doubtless come again. There it is with rejoicing Bringing his note to change sheaves with him. He sows the seed He comes back with the sheaves the harvest We evangelize with the promise Cast thy bread upon the water for thou shall find it after many days Second precept we witness with liberality With liberality give a portion to seven give a portion to eight If the clouds are full of rain, here's this a natural Phenomena that has a spiritual parallel if the clouds are full of rain They empty themselves. They have to An evangelist and all of us should to some degree if we are full of the word of god and the holy spirit and god's burden We just have to let it go. Amen and that's what the evangelist does He sows in the morning verse six. He sows in the evening With liberality He does not bury his talent He does not bury the word of god But by the way Remember when our lord is talking in matthew 25 About the talents he gives someone 10 then he gives someone five and he gives someone one And then he comes to see later. What what has been accrued? What was the sin of the guy who buried the one talent? I've two glaring sins Are on the surface. Yeah, he buried the talent. He should not have done that but the first sin is He calls the lord wicked He said you're a harsh taskmaster You're rough. You're austere You're rigid you're stern you're harsh Really He the the the the master just given out all these talents And when he gave the one the one He was probably expecting just to be Doubled from one to two. He wasn't expecting some hard thing for the one who had the one talent Likewise when we witness not only are we not burying our talents But we have to have in our mind's eye the benevolence of god The goodness of god that leads to repentance the love of god I mean And again, I don't want to pick on street preachers But very often they come across as though god is an austere man He's he's stern. He's rigid. He's rough. That's a translation of all this this word But but they go out with this promise and with liberality because they know god is a good god God sent me into the field because in this field there are some that are ready to be harvested And he wants them into his garner We witness with liberality Thirdly we we witness with a trust In god because we've been trusted with the seed of the word God has give made us stewards of the mysteries of christ the christian the evangelist is someone who has been put in trust He's been given seed he cannot Store the seed up just for himself He cannot delay In sowing the seed he has to work while it's day because night's coming when nobody can work He has to sew it all into to the soil. He cannot discriminate Looking for good soil Right. Oh the parable of the seed on on the ground. There's four grounds and only one produces Maybe two But i'm going to just look for the good ground to sow the seed. He can't do that. He has to sow indiscriminately Three times in these six verses god said you do not know Thou knowest not which shall be good thou knowest not how god works thou knowest not And so he with entrusted he trusts god for the disposing of the seed So The role of the evangelist in the in the life of the church it's a stated role spiritual gift or calling there is a need Fill up the evangelist I think is a tremendous pattern And some of the precepts that this evangelist uses he understands that he does he goes forth with the promise He goes to to spread the word liberally And he knows that he's been entrusted With this gift and with the word to share Well now and more briefly the role of the church in the life of the evangelist and so if the evangelist works out of a church if he is Part of a body we can assume that there is there is some relationship between The role of the church in the life of the evangelist and I have two there in the outline going and holding so let me use an example from church history as far as going I I hope you've heard the name of william carrey Who's been called the father of modern? Missions william carrey was was in england. He was a a cobbler He was a teacher at a school. He was also a pastor of a small Church there in england in 1785 He was appointed as as the headmaster of the church of the school while he was a baptist preacher and pastor And william carrey on one hand was reading books like jonathan edwards um Account of the life of david brainard who was a missionary to the indians And at the same time as he was teaching the kids geography He was considering countries like like india and and africa And parts of south america where the word of god Had never gone And he started asking himself the question how How can god's word? Go there What could god do by way of evangelism? Well william carrey was a particular baptist he was in somewhat of a hyper calvinistic group of baptists And this group believed that Because of the doctrines of grace the doctrines of calvinism Men were not to use means To to spread the word because god had already predestinated those unto eternal life and if we were to use means Then we are undermining god And and so and it's a waste of time because god is already doing the whole thing and all of this of course is not true God does use means and So anyway, there was a particular gathering of these baptist ministers at north hampton And they were talking about several things and the whole idea of missions came up and this famous encounter Where william carrey stood up and he wanted to talk about the duty of christians to attempt to spread the gospel among the heathen nations And It was like a bombshell This young man was shouted down The scheme was impractical No one knew these foreign languages And someone I think it was john rylan Said sit down young man When god wants to convert the heathen, he'll do it without your help or mine And and it was Totally all of character another puritan divine was there andrew fuller Andrew fuller did not publicly chastise william carrey, but he later said that he was thinking of that verse that says if god would open up the windows of heaven How can this thing be? It was it was impossible As a human would think he was saying but but william carrey's zeal Could not be quenched and he continued to bring forward this idea That we should go Is it difficult? Yeah, is it impossible? Yeah william carrey had a lot more questions than answers But he was trying to begin to understand. How can we go? And then william carrey preached that famous sermon from isaiah 54 verse 2 and 3 enlarge the place of thy tent Let them stretch forth the curtains of thine habitations. Do not spare lengthen thy cords and strengthen thy stakes For thou shalt break forth on the right hand and on the left And thy seed shall inherit the gentiles And make the desolate cities to be inhabited Amen and he had two points from that sermon expect great things from god attempt great things for god That same year he published a little pamphlet entitled an inquiry into the obligations of christians to use means for the conversion of the heathen Again most of carrey's Contemporaries believed that the great commission only belonged to the apostles But William carrey kept urging and asking and trying to get people to think about Using human means under the providence of god under the power of god to spread the gospel So If you think about it, it's So spiritually perfect that god uses imperfect means To share his word word because man gets no glory at all All the glory goes to god For after that in the wisdom of god the world by wisdom did not know god It pleased god by the foolishness of preaching to save them that believe God has chosen the foolish things of the world to confound the wise And god has chosen the weak things of the world to confound the things which are mighty And the base things of the world and the things which are despised God has chosen Yea, and the things which are not to bring to not The things that are That no flesh Should glory in his presence God uses the imperfects yous and me's to accomplish Something that is so otherworldly That there is no way any of us could take any credit Or any glory for doing gospel work God does use means When god called abram out of ur the kaldis abram had to walk out of ur the kaldis If you want to be obedient to that scripture admonition to let the word of christ dwell in you richly When you wake up in the morning, you have to open the book and read the book And memorize meditate study The book god uses means Eventually william carrey overcame the resistance of the Of the missionary effort to accomplish they they founded a society which this Missionary society is still in existence today And william carrey did go to india In 1834 he went there and died there in 1834 having never left Going the evangelist has in his spiritual DNA That he wants to go despite obstacles despite fears and doubts Despite disagreeing brethren They want to go At our subsequent business meeting we're going to tell you there's an individual in this church who wants to go And to that we say amen somebody wants to go Going What about holding so so andrew fuller was the guy who said He didn't know how this could could work out. He didn't publicly chastise william carrey But he said in his mind if the windows of heaven are open. How can we how can we do this thing? Andrew fuller who was a puritan divine tremendous preacher godly man He eventually saw what william carrey saw and he had this conversation with William carrey, he said this there's a gold mine a gospel gold mine in india But it goes as deep as the center of the earth Who will venture to go and explore it and william carrey said this I will go down If you will hold the rope They needed somebody holding the rope so he could go down This is what the church is called to do in the life of the evangelists hold the ropes help Be there to support Andrew fuller Held the ropes by becoming the president of this baptist missionary society He traveled around raising people's awareness. He raised some money. He got people focused on on missionary endeavor Holding the church holds the rope by sending by praying By giving first of all sending How shall they call upon him whom they've not heard or believed How should Allah should they believe on him whom they've not heard And how shall they hear without a preacher? And how shall they preach? Except they are sent As it is written And I think this is a quote from isaiah 32 as it is written How beautiful are the feet of them that preach the gospel of peace? And bring glad tidings of good things Sending the church is to recognize the spiritual gift in this calling and the church is to set apart And the church is to send Praying The church needs to very consistently pray For the evangelist who is doing that work out there We normally think of second thessalonians 3 1 paul saying finally my brethren Pray for us that the word of the lord may have free course and run and be glorified That's a very easy pray prayer to pray Yeah, that the word preached would be owned of god and it would run and be glorified and we forget the next verse The next verse says and that we can be delivered from unreasonable and wicked men Because all men have not faith The evangelist is going out there and there's some wicked people out there I know there's wicked people imprisoned And there's wicked people at cal berkeley And evil morally wrong and and people on the street. They're unreasonable Paul said pray for us that both the word would go forth And that we can be delivered from unreasonable when wicked men so that we can continue the work of an evangelist Lastly giving We don't like to talk about money Because there's so much Shameless begging for money in pulpits today. We never Preached that I recall I remember once or twice in 25 years where a sermon has been shared on On money, we don't pass the plate. We don't know who gives what? but paul Quite often talked about raising money To support because the evangelist has has paul said living expenses. He has sending expenses He has all these expenses And we don't want him To have to have to work necessarily so that he can give himself to the ministry now paul Said I don't always exercise that That that that opportunity that gift I'm going to make tense Because that's how god has wired me And the money that you're going to give me let's give it to an evangelist so they can do the work of the gospel But but paul in several places I have the verses if you want to get them later paul said we should support financially the evangelist The evangelist is not going to be on on some gravy train Driving a bmw and making a lot of money The evangelist needs a subsistence So that he can he can go and give himself to the labor So so I tried to very compactly talk about The role of the evangelist in the life of the church and the role of the church in the life of the evangelist I think behind all of this we see The tremendous love and goodness of god when you were evangelized by whoever evangelized you Who ultimately? Was the evangelist? It was god the holy spirit Who used an individual? Maybe attract Maybe the internet as as much good as the internet does God uses people one on one encounters one with a small group The fields are white into the harvest I have to confess sometime. I I look at the fields and I say I don't see any whiteness out there Everyone is going their own way. Everyone Is is saying they don't need god Those are the ones that do need god the ones who are ignorant foolish Let's Continue to pray that god would raise up laborers for his harvest and that we as a church can have some small part in that let's pray father, thank you for Your love to us and you used individuals in our life to to witness to the truth the glad tidings of great joy And and it is a great joy. They were glad tidings Even though for some of us it took a while to see it Father as we now are at a crossroads now of understanding The work of an evangelist and an individual in our midst who wants to go In our role. Oh, we pray lord that you would guide us That you would equip us and help us to to do your work the way you want it done And that you would get all the glory forward we ask this in jesus name.
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Stephanie Hughes, <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> from marketplace. <SpeakerChange> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Male> <Speech_Music_Male> This final <Speech_Music_Male> note on the way out <Speech_Music_Male> today, I meant to get <Speech_Male> these points into a <Speech_Male> question allow brainer <Speech_Male> to earlier today, but <Speech_Male> I guess it got away from <Speech_Male> me. A quick one, two <Speech_Male> on economic <Speech_Male> data out the next couple <Speech_Male> of days. <Speech_Male> Our first look at first <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> quarter gross domestic <Speech_Male> product growth comes <Speech_Male> tomorrow consensus <Speech_Male> is <Speech_Male> about 2% <Speech_Male> growth annualized, <Speech_Male> of course, January <Speech_Male> through March. <Speech_Male> And then Friday is the <Speech_Male> biggie inflation <Speech_Male> the way the fed likes <Speech_Male> to measure it <Speech_Male> personal consumption <Speech_Male> expenditure PCE <Speech_Male> <Speech_Male> 8 30 <SpeakerChange> Friday <Speech_Male> morning Washington <Speech_Male> time. <Silence> All right, we <Speech_Male> got to go here though, <Speech_Male> is your moment of <Speech_Male> economic context <Speech_Male> we are going to stick with it <Speech_Male> a calendar theme <Speech_Male> here next week, <Speech_Male> Tuesday, Wednesday, <Speech_Male> the fed meets, <Silence> <Speech_Male> what do you <SpeakerChange> think? <Speech_Male> A quarter of a percentage <Speech_Male> point, maybe <Speech_Male> <Advertisement> a pause, <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> I don't know. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Your guess is as <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> good as mine. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Our media <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> production team includes <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Brian Allison, Jake <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> cherry. I don't know why I <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> laughed at that. Drew just <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> had karaoke Jeff <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Peters Charlton Thorpe, <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> one Carlos gerardo <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> and Becca weinman. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> I'm Kai <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> Rizzo, we will <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> see you tomorrow, <SpeakerChange> everybody. <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> This <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> is 8 p.m.. <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Hey there, <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> it's Chrissy Clark, <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> host of the <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> marketplace podcast, <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> the uncertain <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> hour. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Join me and our <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> producers on May <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> 4th for a <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> free virtual <Speech_Music_Female> event where we'll <Speech_Music_Female> discuss what went into <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> the making of the <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> latest season, <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> and answer your <Speech_Music_Female> questions. <Speech_Music_Female> Learn more and <Speech_Music_Female> register for free <Speech_Music_Female> at marketplace <Speech_Music_Female> dot org slash <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> uncertain. <Speech_Music_Female> See <SpeakerChange> you there.
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Almost no matter the workplace, being in charge isn't easy. That is true for companies. And it's true for school districts. Superintendents have to run budgets and hire and fire staff and be the public face of the district. And we need more of them, at least 30% of the country's superintendents have quit in the past three years. That's according to an education executive search firm. And it's a staffing crisis that has far reaching ramifications for district budgets for district staff and also for its students. So at least half the states are trying to create a pipeline of superintendent candidates. Marketplace is Stephanie Hughes reports from Maryland's eastern shore. At an end near the Chesapeake Bay, a group of about 16 people from around Maryland are gathered in a small ballroom. It's the state's first ever aspiring superintendent academy. Many of the attendees are career educators, even assistant superintendents, but the lead role has new challenges, a panel of current superintendents is telling them. Like working with school board members who may be upset about curriculum choices or individual teachers. Dave bromwell, who leads the district in dorchester county, says he tries to be a buffer between his staff and the board. So what I've tried to do is say, look, I'm your employee. So if you're mad about something and you think someone's not doing their job, that's what I'm for. I got big shoulders. I can take it. Let me have it. It's also important not to take all of that personally. Says another superintendent, Patti salens. She has a different warning. There will be lawsuits. You're just gonna be sued all the time. You have all litigation all the time. It happens. The academy was planned by the state's member association for superintendents, and is meeting about ten times. The need for people who want to do this is urgent. Mary pat fannon, the association's executive director, points out that about a third of the state's 24 superintendent positions were up for grabs last year. It would be lovely to not feel anxious when there's 9 openings, right? I know there's a little, there's a little cohort of superintendent wannabes out there. The money for the training comes from the U.S. Department of Education, the state superintendent association, and the school districts themselves. And learning about money is key to the training. It's one thing to be a teacher, it's another to know how to budget for a school system. Again, superintendent Dave romwe. Were you providing staff with the tools they need to make our students successful. And then in doing that, what dollar signs attached to that? There can't be enough financial education for superintendents who are wrangling budgets that are often in the tens of millions of dollars and can be over a billion in the biggest districts. Marguerite rosa is with the economics lab at Georgetown. Managing these mega budgets in the private sector involves a whole career path. You can imagine becoming a superintendent and actually not having had ownership over public resources in any significant amount before. The median salary for a superintendent is around a $156,000, according to the national membership association. The people with these skills can make much more, say, running a big company. Ray and associate is a national search firm that consults with school boards to find superintendents. The firm doesn't track how many people who take part in these trainings go on to actually fill the roles. But Molly schwarz off, the search firm's vice president, says when a district can't find a superintendent, there's a snowball effect. We're seeing combined school districts, which then raises class sizes. Teachers get overwhelmed. We're already seeing the burnout. It's a huge impact on our kids and on our education system. If we don't have enough people to lead these districts, which is why Maryland is training people like Monique Jackson. She's a deputy superintendent and Anna rental county public schools, and part of the aspiring superintendent cohort. She has a great aunt who ran an elementary school in what was then a segregated state and comes from a long line of other educators. I hope if they were here today still, they would have that pride for other things that I've done. But Jackson is still squaring the time required in the scrutiny that could come to both her and her family if she takes on the job. Her kids are now 11 and 13. They don't know anything other than mommy being at central office. And so that's why this is not just a decision for me. One thing Jackson likes about the training is getting to know other educators from around the state. Mary pat fannon of the Maryland superintendent association says the job can be lonely, and she wants these aspiring leaders to have colleagues. They can turn to if they take the leap. In Queen Anne's county, Maryland, I'm
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Do you see? This is your job. So in terms of what are the risks that are out there, obviously for a number of countries that experience high inflation due to the pandemic due to the war, they raised interest rates, and those interest rate increases start to weigh on activity. And of course you have countries like China who were very slow to lift restrictions associated with COVID. And so they're only just starting to return to normal levels of economic activity. Here in the U.S., of course, we also have some political risks to our outlook. And of course, the most important of those is the fight over the debt limit. So let's go there and thank you for going to my next question on my list. At some point, the president is going to come to you if he hasn't already and say, lael, what do I do? So in terms of the president's approach on this, I think it's been clear. It is to say, we need to lift the debt limit. We need to suspend the debt limit. We can't threaten to take the U.S. economy into default. And separately, we need to sit down with Congress as is always the case to have regular order negotiations over the budget. So I think that's the two track. Now, why is it so important to avoid default? It's important because even playing brinksmanship with default, calling into question the full faith and credit of the U.S. government is enormously destabilizing to financial markets. And of course, it is not intended to be used for extortion. It's good to negotiate, but the negotiation takes place every year over the budget. What we can't see is that the debt limit be used by a part of Congress to hold an entire agenda of unrelated items hostage to this threat of default. Why do you think the market hasn't reacted yet? Because that's what's going to concentrate the minds, right? So I think we are starting to see some observers taking a look and noticing that this question about holding the U.S. economy hostage is going to be very, very disruptive. And so you're starting to see some of the financial market indicators flashing yellow. And I think it will become rapidly clear as people focus on exactly when the debt limit could be reached. I think you'll start to see financial markets reacting much more strongly. And again, there's no need for that. What is the normal course is to simply take the threat of default off the table and negotiate in good faith on the budget which is going to be a compromise that I think is just the regular
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"Today's tech news is from the competition and markets authority over in the UK, kind of their Federal Trade Commission slash antitrust watchdog. Which has blocked Microsoft $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard Activision Blizzard, of course, the company behind a whole slew of video games from Call of Duty to candy crush. Microsoft via the Xbox is the distribution channel and regulators over in the UK. Say that would wind up giving gamers if you were choices. But that is not the story we are going to cover. We are going to point out that the UK is now almost 7 years out from its decision to leave the European Union. So we sent marketplaces lily jamali off today to report on the business climate in the UK of late. To help this merger through, Microsoft had already committed to keeping various existing games on competing platforms for a period of time, says Nicholas economies of NYU stern. But he says future content remains a concern for regulators. So Activision may be producing new game and Microsoft has not made a commitment about new games. The UK isn't alone in having concerns about competition, the U.S. sued to block the mega merger last year, but the UK has some unique economic challenges right now, says Rita McGrath of Columbia business school. The mood is not good and Brexit for a lot of people has had a lot of economic consequences. They're not very happy with. Today's stagnant UK economy with consumers dealing with inflation and a rollback of public services has fallen short of what brexiters promised. And Peter Holmes of the UK trade policy observatory says blocking this merger goes against the spirit of Brexit. In a Brexit world, you reign back on regulating business. You let the merge let them do what they like. And you trust in competition. Brexit left the UK to make such calls on its own, says Ian beg of the London school of economics. Begged says the decision is less about Brexit than efforts by Britain to develop lucrative industries. Government is putting a lot of money on the idea of having a high-tech sector in the UK. Microsoft plans to appeal the UK regulators decision. I'm lily Jamal for marketplace. Coming up, holding the U.S. economy hostage is going to be very, very disruptive. Oh, yes, it is. First though, let's do the numbers. Now industrials down about two 28 to day 7 10% closed at 33,301, the NASDAQ gained 55 points almost a half percent 11,854 the S&P 500 down 15 points, almost four 10%, 4055. Mitchell was talking about durable goods or orders rising, thanks in part to aircraft, Boeing, which released earnings today lifted four tenths percent Lockheed Martin down two and 9 tenth percent Raytheon Technologies. Dipped about three in four tenths percent. Real company Norfolk Southern said the February derailment that spilled toxic chemicals in east palestin, Ohio, cost $387 million cleanup is ongoing. The company reported $466 million in earnings this quarter that is down for more than 700 million a year ago, north southern, down two and 9 tenths percent. Today, you're listening to marketplace. This marketplace podcast is supported by Dell, innovative businesses see each new day as an opportunity, an opportunity to create something new or completely reimagine something that already exists. What dream do you have for your business? How will you use your innovation to change the world? Whatever your vision, Dell Technologies advisers are here with the tools and expertise to help you do incredible things. Working right alongside you, addressing your challenges, your needs, and helping you reach your goals. So while no business is the same, Dell Technologies believe there's an innovator in all of us. Learn more about smart PCs powered by the Intel V pro platform that's built for business. Fine tech that will help you reach your business goals by calling a Dell Technologies adviser today. At 8 7 7, ask Dell. That's 8 7 7, ask Dell. Enjoy all your favorite sports like never before at bet MGM. Sign up using code champion and receive up to $1000 back in bonus bets if you don't win your first bet. When you register with bet MGM, you'll get instant access to a variety of parlay selection features, live betting options. Player props, and daily boosted odds specials, and with bet MGM at your fingertips, every play and every game matters more than ever. Find out why bet MGM is the king of sportsbooks. Sign up today with bonus code champion and get up to $1000 back in bonus bets if you don't win your first bit. Bet MGM and game sense remind you to play responsibly and offer resources to help you make appropriate choices, visit bet MGM dot com for terms and conditions. 21 years of age or older to wager, Virginia only, new customer offer all promotions are subject to qualification and eligibility requirements. First, online real money wager only. Rewards issued as not withdrawable bonus bets. Bonus bets expire 7 days from issuance. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem? Call one 800 gambler. This is marketplace. I'm risd all as promised more now from Lil brainer, the director of the national economic council part two, America in the world. The global economy, as you know, the International Monetary Fund came out with its forecast, what a week ten days ago. The lowest meetings room, forecast for growth in 30 years, 3% globally. What's your sense of stability and growth in the global bank and the global economy today? So, you know, we are also seeing some cross currents there on the one hand China is coming back. But rebounding perhaps with not quite as much momentum as some observers were expecting. And of course, China has been a very important contributor to global growth. And here in the U.S., which we are also a very important part of global growth, we're transitioning to more stable growth. So if you look across the world, we're seeing some moderation in global growth, but there are reasons to think that at least in the U.S. case, we will see that transition taking place relatively smoothly. You know, it's interesting. You say cross currents in a very academic and lawyerly way, no offense intended. I wonder if you could explain to people listening to this, what those crosscurrents in the global economy are. What
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"brainard" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal
"In Washington, D.C. today I'm Kyra is all it is Wednesday the 26th of April good as always to have you along everybody. It was busy down at The White House today. President Eun of South Korea is in town, so there was security everywhere vans and buses and SUVs shuttling delegations all over the place. In the relative calm of the Eisenhower executive office building though, right next door to The White House, we got some time with lael brainard, who, until a couple of months ago, was the vice chair of the Federal Reserve, now the director of the national economic council. So I asked her just as a place to start, how she likes her new job. You know, it's busy and a really enjoy it. Let me dig into that a little bit because you've been doing monetary policy now for 9 plus years at the fed and here you are now in fiscal policy land and I wonder how that's different for you. Look for me, it is a chance to really make a huge difference in terms of the supply side of the economy. So the president has a investing in America agenda that is transformative. It's really has the power to re industrialize the U.S. economy to put us on a clean energy path and to create hundreds of thousands of good paying jobs all around the country. So that agenda will really lead to a much more resilient supply side of our economy and put us on track for strong growth for years to come. So we had secretary raimondo on the program yesterday. Talked about that actually for the whole interview, right? What is going to happen in industrial policy in this country? I do wonder, though, if given the current state of things in Congress, we're kind of done with fiscal policy in this country for the next two years. And you now have to manage implementation. So it is absolutely the case that we had three historic pieces of legislation and the focus now is on making sure that those historic bills really show up in terms of opportunities for communities all across the country, including communities that have been left behind. And it's opportunities to be part of industries that are going to be important for the future. Let me ask you that when we had Cecilia rouse and I hate to name drop, but we did have her on the program like a year and a half ago, right? When she was on the council of economic advisers to the chair. I asked her about the fiscal inputs from the Biden administration and inflation. And I wonder how worried you are now that as this $3 trillion flows through the economy, it's going to make the feds fight against inflation all the tougher. I really am not worried at all. I don't think that that is that is not where this historic legislation is really going to have an impact. They're going to lead to a much more resilient domestic clean energy infrastructure and a very strong domestic manufacturing supply chain for semiconductors. Those are two of the main constraints that led to high inflation during the last few years. Of course, we're also seeing inflation coming down pretty rapidly now. We are. And you're right to point that out. I do wonder, though, what you're looking at now as you look at this economy, are you looking at inflation or are you looking at the labor market? What are your markers? I mean, you're a trained observer of this economy. Yeah, so looking across the economy, we are transitioning to sustainable, stable growth, we see a labor market that has been recovering very rapidly. And that is going to transition to a more sustainable pace. But in terms of the improvements there, 12 and a half million new jobs over two years, record low unemployment and participation importantly among working age Americans is now greater than it was pre-pandemic. I'm sure it has an escaped your notice, though, that first time claims for unemployment are up and continuing claims that have been trending up for, I think it's 6 months. Yeah, so as the transition to more stable growth, which is important because we want to have low inflation while we also keep unemployment low, that transition is going to be important to continuing to see progress on inflation. And to see more moderation in the labor market. And that's what we're starting to see for precisely the data that you're referring to suggests a labor market that's coming into better balance. Let me take through a couple of specific issue areas. I want to talk banking and I don't want to know if you think banking is stable because your answer will be yes. I want to know what you're expecting on Friday when the feds report on Silicon Valley bank and supervision comes out. You did a lot of banking supervision at the fed, you have spoken out against some of the relaxation of the rules. I wonder where you're expecting that report to say. So I don't know what that report will say. I'm no longer at the fad. And of course I have no insights into that. But I do know, you must have some insights. I don't have any insights into what they're banking supervision in this data banking. So what happens I think over the course of the Trump administration is there was a kind of broad effort to both relax rules and relax supervision, particularly for banks of the sort of Silicon Valley and signature. And I think that's what we saw as interest rates rose, some of those weaker rules and weaker supervision really came home to roost in particular banks who were poorly managed and taking unacceptable risks. So I think we will see continued tightening or re tightening of the rules that were relaxed just for those mid sized regional banks to make sure that they have liquidity requirements. They're testing their liquidity, that they are stress tests, Silicon Valley was never stressed test it was over 200 billion in assets it never got stress tested. And it was not stress tested for interest rate increases, which would have shown a lot of the holes in the balance sheet that were in the end very destructive. Supervisory failure do you think? So I think in terms of supervision, we certainly need to see that relaxation reversed and we need to make sure that senior executives are held accountable that they know they need to risk manage those banks tightly or that supervisors will call them on it and it will have consequences. We'll pick it up right there with lael brainard later on in the program, the global economy, the debt limit, a little bit more than that as well. On Wall Street today, kind of a split decision to actually, but to that bit that doctor Brandon was just talking about banks and supervision, trading in shares of first republic it of the $100 billion in deposit withdrawals in the fourth quarter as we mentioned yesterday, trading in ticker symbol FRC was halted 16 times today. To try to get a handle on some really volatile trading, all the same FRC ended the session down another 29%.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"About his accomplishments and what his successor lael brainard can do to help get inflation down. Lay all this going to be an extraordinary leader and counselor for the president just brings this breadth of expertise and context having not only been at the front and center of these macroeconomic debates, but also having worked at treasury and at the NEC previously as well. I think the core tools that the entire economic team and the president will have here are the tools to implement the historic pieces of legislation that we passed last year. You know, most of the work involved, whether it is prescription drugs or lower energy prices or more infrastructure. And semiconductor facilities that will help reduce price bottlenecks in our transportation system. All of those are coming online. 2023 and 2024 are going to be the big years of implementation of those provisions. There's a lot that we need to get right. There's a lot that needs to get done well in that context. But I think that's going to be the principal set of tools that the economic team and the president will have. Brian, I'm sure it's time for you to reflect back on what you've been doing here for the last two years. What are you proudest of as you look back in the accomplishments? Well, yeah, you're like, I'm proud of this team. I'm proud of this president navigating through a historically unprecedented period of time. I think the historically strong and equitable nature of this labor market recovery and this recovery over all is something that, you know, I think that the American people should take pride in. We've defied a lot of odds and also the fact that it was not it was not a straight line. We talked about it a lot over the course of time, but that we were able to get these three big pieces of legislation on infrastructure, chips, inflation reduction act that I think will provide a long-term public investment support. Get more of this and other conversations on the latest balance of power podcast. Listen on the Bloomberg business app, Bloomberg dot com and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Some bonds last a lifetime. Some bonds inspire confidence, and some you grow to rely on
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Gonna answer a whole lot of questions. It just kind of pushed the ball forward to the next data point. And the fed speak that we got today didn't really change either romaine. It was all about there's more work to be done. Which point out, of course, we talk about the lack of conviction in this market volume, like once again, for a second straight day, we are well below some of our more recent averages here when it comes to market across volume across the market. Here are your closing numbers here on the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is lower here on the day down about 5 tenths of a percent. Before we continue, though, we do want to get to some breaking news and this involves a national economic council and the Federal Reserve we're now learning that the president of the United States Joe Biden is going to tap the feds lael brainard to be his top economic adviser. There was a lot of discussion about the potential that she could move from her role at the fed into The White House to be the top economic adviser. I believe we have our Bloomberg international economics correspondent Michael McKee standing by right now. With a little bit more information on it. So not necessarily surprised, but give us a sense as to why brainerd he would ask brainer to make this move. Well, this was a trial balloon in The White House, did not shoot down. It has a lot of experience in Washington. She was deputy treasury secretary. She was the deputy head of the national economic council before. So she has worked on the political side for many years as well as on the monetary policy side. So she knows everything about what's going on in Washington. And she is also considered to be a very capable kind of, I don't want to use the word bureaucrat, but somebody who knows how to get things done. And that's going to be the important thing going forward for this administration with Republicans running the house, not much is going to pass, but implementing the inflation reduction act and the chips act are going to be important tasks for them plus coordinating the rebuilding of Ukraine and other parts of the world. Along with these romaine, along with her nomination, we're also seeing the president elevate Jared Bernstein to the head of the council of economic advisers because Celia rouse is leaving. And he has promoted Heather Boucher, who's a member of the council of economic advisers to chief economist to the invest in America cabinet, which is sort of an additional job, I guess, this will go along. But ramamurti will be deputy director of the national economic council. He is now but also adviser for strategic economic communications and Joelle gamble, who's the chief economist at the Labor Department, is going over to the NEC as another deputy director. All right, so Mike changing The White House C suite economic C suite if you will, to some extent, what I'm thinking about, though, is well brainard has been one of the more dovish voices on the fed, very key. One of the senior voices obviously is vice chairman or formerly as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. What does this mean? What seems to be like a critical juncture for the fed as they try and figure out how long they continue to raise race rates. What does it mean by kind of taking away her voice? Well, she has been an advocate of what happens when you raise rates to people who are average working people. Does this hurt them? How are they going to get by when we're raising interest rates if unemployment starts to go up? So that voice will be lost for now unless she is replaced. But Jay Powell has also embraced that. So that may be okay. What's worse for the fed at this point, I think, is that she has been key person in operating the fed itself because she chairs four of their committees, including the payments committee, which is putting together and putting out this year, the new fed now instantaneous program, payment program, climate risk. She's very big on climate risk, financial stability, and the community reinvestment act. So she has a major role behind the scenes at the fed and it's going to be interesting to see how that gets divided up. Doesn't the fed vice chair need to be confirmed by the Senate as well? The fed vice chair would be if they appoint somebody new to replace her as vice chair. Sure, but if they elevate. She doesn't need to be confirmed to go to the national economic council. So they could elevate somebody who is already on the fed and they would have to be confirmed as the vice chair or they could appoint somebody new then make them the vice chair and they have to be yeah, because nothing's going to get done under this Congress. Yeah, that's a question about what a lot of speculation about who might replace her because this trial balloon has been out there for a little while. And while there are a lot of names, it isn't clear that anybody will get the job because The White House doesn't usually move that fast on the fed and you've got an election year next year. Absolutely, and go back to when she was selected because there was some pushback out there that maybe certain elements of wall streets or elements of the corporate world weren't necessarily her given her ideology as vice chair. But overall, I guess, kind of worked out. I mean, we didn't really get anything dramatic out of her, at least with regards to any pushback on those industries. Yeah, the biggest concern was her feelings about financial stability and regulation that she would push for those. And while she has the fed has deferred, and she has deferred to the other vice chairman Michael Barr, who was appointed and confirmed later. That's his lane. And there are concerns about where he's going to go with all of this. But lael has been pretty much more identified now with monetary policy. So less of an issue for her there. All right, I think so out there to
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Were up across the curve today. We heard from the vice chair of the fed lael brainard saying rates need to remain elevated for some period of time. Steven, thanks for being with us. Stephen Davies there founder CEO of javelin wealth management joining us here on daybreak Asia will give you a market update and a check on global news. That's ahead. This is Bloomberg. Bloomberg radio on demand and in your podcast feed. On the latest edition of the Tate podcast, a conversation with Fernando valley, a Bloomberg intelligence. China reopening kind of kick starting this supercycle in commodities. How long is that gonna take? It may take longer than expected for a couple reasons first. Just a contagion that we seen in the rising cases that's actually limiting the traffic. So if you look at the ridership, for example, in the Beijing subway, it's still about 30% of their usual levels pre lockdown. So we're still far away from a real impact on demand. And then I think what you said about the debt ceiling not to restart something. Please do. Tell me. Something to that could break. It's China is Japan. Those are all very severe risks in the short term that our headwinds for oil and oil consumption because as you said, there is an issue with how we fund our government and not just in the U.S. but globally and that if we have an issue there and that leads to lower demand because we had to either raise rates or just find a way of containing investments that will ultimately impact the oil consumption at least in the short term. How closely have you been watching the fed as an oil analyst for Bloomberg intelligence? Very closely. In fact, last year in our meteor outlook, we said the fed is the biggest risk for oil prices and lo and behold it panned out. And then we said China is the biggest risk. But we think the reopening will have an impact. It doesn't solve the Chinese consumer. It will improve the overall activity, but it doesn't solve it they're massively levered and their real estate
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Who upgraded the stock going into this earnings, the bullishness was around how Netflix's pace to deal with all of the issues this industry is facing. They have an ad supported tier that they feel is reasonably priced. Great pieces leads that. Meantime, Netflix ended last year on a high note, the company added about 7.7 million subscribers last quarter, analysts were predicting only 4.5 million. Netflix shares are up almost 7% in after hours and a reminder coming up in a few moments. We'll be chatting with geetha ranganathan, Bloomberg intelligence analyst on U.S. media and the specialist on Netflix. Well, today we heard from the vice chair of the fed lael brainard saying that interest rates will need to stay elevated for some time as a way of cooling inflation here she is, speaking at the University of Chicago, booth school of business. Inflation has declined in recent months, but inflation was very high. And it's going to take time and resolve to get it back 60%. Financial conditions have considerably over the past year as the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world have tightened policy considerably. Fed vice chair lael brainard now she did not say exactly what her peak rate was or what she envisioned it would be, and she didn't explicitly state a preference for whether the fed should downshift to a quarter point move at the next decision, and that Brian is well known will happen on February 1st. Absolutely can't wait, I'll be getting up
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"In Washington to discuss her outlook for the economy, the fed's rate hike path, and the crypto market crash. Vice chair brainard spoke with Bloomberg's Washington bureau chief Peggy Collins, here's part of that conversation now. So so much of what we wrote about here at Bloomberg during the pandemic and elsewhere I know other journalists too was about people getting back into the labor market and getting jobs. Bloomberg economics actually is forecasting a 100% chance of a recession in the next 12 months. What is your forecast for where we end up in terms of unemployment by the end of next year? Yeah, so I think it's very difficult to give firm projections. Because this is a very unusual labor market. So the pandemic led to a lot of departures from in person services in particular. And if you look at hiring data, you can still see pretty healthy hiring in some of those in person services where some businesses are still trying to catch up to levels of employment that may be appropriate for the kind of the run rate that they're seeing. But it is the case that as rates move further into restrictive territory. And financial conditions remain tight. That does exert some restraint on demand. To bring demand into better alignment with supply. And so you will see some reallocation. Now vacancies are unusually high relative to unemployment. And that does suggest for the reasons that we were just talking about this sort of catch up hiring. There are some chance that we'll see more of a diminution in those vacancies rather than putting as much emphasis on layoffs. But it's likely there'll be a combination of both. Do you think the downshift is coming? Yeah, so I think it will probably be appropriate soon. To move to a slower pace of increases. But I think what's really important to emphasize, we've done a lot, but we have additional work to do both on raising rates and sustaining restraint to bring inflation down to 2% over time. So we have raised rates very rapidly by nearly four percentage points over about 9 months and we've been reducing the balance sheet and you can see that in financial conditions. You can see it in inflation expectations, which are quite well anchored. You can see it in interest rate sensitive sectors. But as we said last meeting, they're likely to be lags. And it's going to take some time for that cumulative tightening to flow through. And so it makes sense to move to a more deliberate and a more data dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there's restraint that will bring inflation down over time. So I want to turn to another big story that we've been covering, which is the implosion of another firm in the crypto market. FTX and Sam bankman freed's empire there. And in a speech in July, you were looking at the crypto market and at that time thought that there weren't signs that there were so much interconnectivity yet between crypto firms and the broader financial market to imply a systemic risk. How has your view changed given what's happened in the past week? Yeah, so I don't think my view has fundamentally changed. First of all, it is really concerning to see that retail investors are really getting hurt by these losses. And it is also the case. That despite a lot of hype, you heard a lot about how decentralized these markets are and how innovative and different. It turns out they're highly concentrated. Highly interconnected. And you're just seeing a domino effect, failures from one platform or one firm spilling over elsewhere. And it reinforces, I think. This need to make sure that crypto finance because it is no different than traditional finance in the risks that it exposes investors to needs to be under the regulatory perimeter. There need to be strong regulatory guardrails that assure that like risks are subject to like disclosures and like regulatory outcomes. And that was Federal Reserve vice chair Lyle brainard speaking with Bloomberg's Peggy Collins in Washington. You can catch the full interview online at Bloomberg dot com or any time on the Bloomberg terminal. S&P futures right now are up 29 points down futures up a 157. NASDAQ futures are higher by a 131 points to ten year treasury is up 1130 seconds, the yield 3.81% and the yield on the two year right now. 4.35%. Just had the latest from the G 20 summit and a big blow to another election denier in the midterms. It's coming up on Bloomberg daybreak. This is a Bloomberg money minute, Wall Street is coming off a losing session, the major averages had losses ranging from around two thirds of a percent to just over 1% Monday, a 211 point drop for the Dow. The government's latest reading on wholesale inflation will be out this morning, economists expect to hear that the producer price index rose four tenths of a percent last month. There's a chance we could see a drop in the price of coffee, the weather in key coffee growing nations has turned more favorable. The Wall Street Journal says coffee prices fell by more than 20% on the commodity markets over the past month. Jobs and Apple stores have lost some of their previous luster. According to many store workers who have talked to Bloomberg businessweek, Apple store workers
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"That I really, really haven't seen. What I would say is that we had material reform what it would do is it would send a signal to the industry to invest, to invest in infrastructure to invest in production with the confidence that we actually could, we could execute those investments. And so I think it would be a very positive signal. I can't tell you how it would impact our plans until I see some specific language. Okay, Mike, thank you so much. I really appreciate you joining us at Chevron CEO Mike worth. And thank you very much to Alex Steele, our Bloomberg colleague at the Barclays energy conference. And now we're going to go some breaking news that's just crossing the terminal and it has to do with the fed. Let's bring in Michael McKee, who can tell us all about it. So Mike, what do we know? Well, David fed vice chair lael brainard is speaking to the clearinghouse association and basically signing on to fed chair Jay Powell's comments from Jackson hole saying the fed remains extraordinarily committed to bringing down inflation and she says the fed will do whatever it takes to get it done. Here's a quote from her speech. We are in this for as long as it takes, she says, to get inflation down. So far we have expeditiously raised the policy rate to the peak of the previous cycle and the policy rate will need to rise further. Monetary policy will need to be restrictive for some time to provide confidence that inflation is moving down to target. She doesn't take a position on the September rate increase, whether it would be 50 or 75, but it is a somewhat hawkish speech interpret that as you will. The one thing that she adds really to the whole debate that Powell did not speak about is the idea that maybe margins are getting a little out of whack retailers charging too much for the goods for goods over what they pay and that there is scope for that to come down and bring down inflation. Might also mention that we just had comments out from the new Boston fed president Susan Collins speaking in a podcast recorded by the bank. She says she has not decided yet on whether it should be 50 or 75 September 21st. She is a voter, but that she is as committed as everyone else to bringing down inflation. Well, Mike, you fought a lot longer than I have, but I think they always say they wait till they go in the room and they listen to one another and they decide they haven't decided in advance. At the same time, given what we just heard from L brainard, does that indicate to you perhaps maybe a little more in the 75 direction, a little less than the 50? It would seem that they're leaning towards 75. Now, we get that CPI report next week that will make a big difference in what they do if it doesn't come down a whole lot in 75 is probably the base case. Thank you so much to Bloomberg's Michael that breaking news kind of lay out brainard. Now we're going to turn to the question of supply chains. There are big economic questions raised because of supply chains, but there are also national security issues that get implicated in particular when it comes to things like rare earth minerals. We now turn to Christie Rogers. He's managing partner of principal to principal that works with C suite executives on Washington policy issues. So Christy, thank you so much for being with me. I really appreciate you being with us in the studio. So take us into the overall situation with supply chains. We often focus on China as a practical matter. And the risks of China, whether it's overall the supply chains or more specifically with national security materials. And we rightfully focus and are concerned about sort of the concentration of a lot of our critical goods in China and Southeast Asia. And a silver lining with the pandemic is that it actually highlighted this fact that the vast majority of our critical goods, particularly critical minerals, are processed in China. And if there is another pandemic, if something happens in Taiwan and we're cut off from that, it is going to be devastating to our economic security, but also to our national security. So Kris to give us some sense of what we're doing. We, in the sense of Washington is doing about this because I've seen some initiatives coming out of I think State Department actually on things like cobalt and lithium. Yeah, you know, we've taken some good steps. The administration has and we have over the past couple of years. And the president invoked the defense production act earlier this year to encourage and incite the production of some of these critical minerals at home. But our policies aren't still aligned. And that's what we have to get policy makers and decision makers to recognize. And what I mean by that is we've had the department of interior cancel two mineral licenses in Minnesota just this summer. We've had two lithium mines, one in Nevada and actually both in Nevada put on hold because of political and environmental concerns. And so when we say on the one hand, we must do this and we must manufacture 40% of all EV batteries, electric vehicle batteries at home, beginning in 2023, but we're canceling mines and we're holding them up. We're just not aligned.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Do you Federal Reserve vice chair at lael brainard today said half point raises over the next few months are reasonable for more we bring in Bloomberg's Abigail Doolittle for more on this Abigail I guess we can say goodbye to a September pause It sounds like that is the case or at least that is the jaw boning on the day of course fed chair or excuse me vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Leo brainard earlier today In an interview with CNBC did make that case saying that it's reasonable to expect to 50 basis point cuts over the next two meetings and that there's no reason for a pause in September Now this seems to be a bit of a walking back to some of the color that came out of the FOMC minutes for the last meeting when there was the room for flexibility So it seems as though maybe the Federal Reserve is going to continue on this hiking path in a more aggressive way than folks had thought last week And remember of course last week we had a big rally a piece of that idea that maybe the Federal Reserve was not going to be as aggressive What makes it so interesting Joe initially stocks really did take a leg lower on those comments And now we have the S&P 500 up about 9 tenths of 1% the adage sell in May and go away is not true Right now through the beginning of May the S&P 500 is higher How about that I guess anything can happen in this particular market When we consider the fed how important is tomorrow's jobs report in determining the way forward It's very important Right now the survey is calling for a little more than 300,000 jobs to be added for the month of May down from April and as we had been discussing earlier it's important that that number comes in right around that number or even a little bit lower because yesterday we had that stronger than expected ISM number that print which is good news but good news is bad news because it supports what layer layer brain et cetera earlier today that perhaps there won't be a pause that there's no reason to have a pause because the economy is still perhaps what some might consider to be a little bit hot It's hard to call it hot at this point because a 56 print on the ISM while certainly is an expansion isn't overly overly expansionary It's certainly strong but nonetheless in the expectation of this tightening environment you want a Federal Reserve you want numbers that come.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"He told lottery officials he was in paying attention when he picked the ticket and it was a fluke The man says winning the prize hasn't sunk in yet I'm Brian shook And I'm Doug prisoner at Bloomberg world headquarters in New York Let's check this hour's top business stories on the markets Markets are still reeling from a shock delivered by fed governor lael brainard who said the fed will shrink its balance sheet at a rapid pace as soon as May She said caps to govern the pace of asset roll offs could be significantly larger and phased in much faster than the last time around She made no mention of outright asset sales We have the entire U.S. yield curve moving up with a ten year treasury now in the Tokyo session just under 2.60% a two year at two 57 Now the emphasis on balance sheet reduction as opposed to interest rate hikes sent long-term interest rates higher in the U.S. session so as a result we do have positive slope to the U.S. yield curve JetBlue Airways has made an offer to acquire spirit airlines this offer is roughly $3.6 billion the unsolicited bid could potentially spoil sprint's planned merger with frontier airlines shares in JetBlue are down 7% in the regular session We had shares in sprint rally 22% and shares in frontier were higher by nearly 4% in the regular session and Twitter has named Elon Musk to its board of directors one day after disclosing that Musk now is the social media companies largest shareholder We check markets every 15 minutes here on Bloomberg Right now in Hong Kong the hang seng is weaker by 1.7% in Tokyo the nikkei down more than 2% on the Chinese mainland Shanghai composite weaker by three tenths of 1% in Seoul that Cosby is off 1% and in Sydney the ASX 200 weaker by 8 tenths of 1% Crude oil is continuing to retreat WTI now one O one 50 in the electronic session weaker by four tenths of 1% Global news 24 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg quicktake powered by more than 2700 journalists.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Coming out So it's hard for senators to say that they aren't doing something in response Yeah so there could be a focus today with avail brainard on how she'll do things differently or what will be the policies I mean I know we've had an announcement on that front How vulnerable then given the new policies in place how vulnerable are other members of the FOMC Well I think it's certainly an issue that's going to continue to get heightened scrutiny We know that there are still vacancies on the Federal Reserve board of governors that Joe Biden still needs to name some folks too I think part of why we're seeing a delay in that is this emphasis on ethics and the realization that there's going to be a higher level of ethical scrutiny and some of these nominees So I think it's going to continue to certainly be an issue but whether it's one that breaks through into the psyche of the typical American voter I think probably not that likely in the next couple of months at least Republicans likely to push back against Biden's nominees I mean that's what they're there for on Capitol Hill We've heard of calls from Jerome Powell brain on today It's all about confirmation hearings aren't they So our Republicans likely to push back against who Biden wants either while not maybe not these two but with others Well I think with Lil Bernard we're likely to see a bit more pushback I think some of the positions that she's taken when it comes to issues like climate change and things like that are going to potentially make her more vulnerable to some additional Republican resistance But it's important to remember that she's also someone that's been through this kind of confirmation process before had widespread support in the past Jerome pal is someone who is well liked by Republicans So I think that for those to at least they're likely to get not just the support they need the one vote majority they need to be confirmed but likely at least a decent amount of Republican support for both of those as well when they ultimately come to the Senate for a floor vote Kathleen thank you very much Kathleen hunter joining us with the latest on what's happening on Capitol Hill Of course we've heard then from Jerome Powell we'll hear from lael brainard a little bit later on about what's about we'll get that confirmation hearing Let us get some sports news then this morning for you And for that we go to Chris cave Southampton boss Ralph Hassan hotel has praised his players after their comfortable four one Premier League victory at home to Brentford the result means they've stretched their unbeaten run in the top flight to four matches and move up to 11th Hooter was particularly pleased after their FA Cup win at the weekend went to extra time Fantastic after a tough Saturday 120.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"A holiday parade tragedy a vigil was held this evening in Waukesha Wisconsin where 5 people were killed and more than 40 others were injured yesterday when an SUV barreled into the parade crowd Police chief Daniel Thompson identified the suspect Mill through 9 years of age who was a resident of the city Milwaukee 5 films of first degree intentional homicide with additional charges based on the investigation The White House is touting 95% compliance with a COVID vaccine requirement for the federal workforce That includes government employees and contractors and numbers around 3.5 million The prosecution is preparing to deliver its rebuttal tomorrow in the closely watched trial of three men accused of killing ahmaud Arbery after closing arguments got underway earlier today The three white men are accused of murdering Arbery last year in Georgia while he was out for a jog I'm Brian schuck And I'm Brian Curtis in Los Angeles Let's get you caught up on this hour to stop business stories and the markets President Biden has selected Jerome Powell for a second term as fed chair He also elevated governor lael brainard to vice chair The nominations are expected to help maintain consistency at the Central Bank It comes as the Federal Reserve grapples with the fastest inflation in some three decades Well the fed might need to remove monetary stimulus faster than planned That's according to Atlanta fed president Raphael bostic He commented a few hours ago on Bloomberg radio Well I think there are good arguments to be made that we really should be considering fast We execute the taper There's a lot of uncertainty in the market inflation as you noted is at a very high level And I think it's important that if we need to be moving interest rates that we get the taper out of the way first So a faster taper would certainly give us more optionality as we move into 2022 and see where the data takes us That was Atlanta fed president Rafael bostick heard.
"brainard" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Coverage for you on whatever the announcement may be Lisa immersed Citigroup He writes up and says it's simple He predicts Powell will be reappointed and he predicts stronger dollar offer Yeah although you know it's all over the map Muhammad el Arian came out in Bloomberg television last week and said he thinks that Leo brainard would be the best choice I mean frankly it is all over the place when it comes to this selection And at the end of the day Tom is a really different Kaley you want to weigh in on this Well I think it's interesting because it's not just about who Biden picks that person still needs to be nominated They need the votes in order for that to actually become the next fed chair It's not just about the nomination And I wonder given some of the pushback on progressives like Elizabeth Warren for example on chairman Powell if we don't get a German pal pic if instead it is brainerd do you end up with a kind of battle in the legislative branch no matter what the executive decides Maybe a little day to check here as we go and I've ignored foreign exchange today DX Y 96 is a level Bloomberg dollar index elevated as well yen one 1409 Sterling John farrow one 34 45 Sterling quiescent after the Tottenham victory that we enjoyed yesterday Frank comes thank you Anytime You should have seen it It was really good You got fired up They were terrible I heard that managers left and came A lot of news But you know I can't really help you on it Thank you It was just A touch slept walk through the first half and came out and they took it out of Leeds two to one and it was exciting and I bet it was Leading our football coverage Tom gage thank you Is it though Is it is this helping anyone I tried Interesting We'll.
Native Students Finally Win the Right to Wear Tribal Regalia at Graduation Ceremonies
"A new oregon law allows a native students to where feather on their cap for graduation ceremonies kale. Cc's brian bull. Has many native students have worn eagle or turkey feathers or their cap and gown for years but added ornament was never formerly assured until the sierra the oregon legislature a bill that governor brown then signed in may brenda brainard is director of the four j. natives program which supports native american culture and learning in eugene area schools. The fact that students can incorporate their culture into their graduation for themselves and for their community is just wonderful. Only native american students who practice and celebrate their culture is seen by supporters as a way to promote academic achievement and improve retention and graduation rates for national native news. I'm brian bowl.
75-Year-Old Man Dead, Woman Injured In Chicago Apartment Fire
"A woman hospitalized after an apartment fire and the Brainard neighborhood late Friday night. WGN's Judy Wang with more Yes identified by the Cook County Medical examiner's office as 75 year old John Macon, a woman is hospitalized in serious condition at Christ Medical Center. The damage here is extensive. The fire broke out and about 11 last night. The apartment building is located at 94th and Southall step what firefighters arrived. They saw the flames shooting through the roof. Two police officers went into the building and pulled the woman out. It is unknown what type of injuries she suffered in this fire. Chicago police say those two officers drove themselves a little company of Mary Hospital after the rescue. They're being treated for smoke inhalation. Firefighters say the building didn't appear to have working smoke detectors. Ah 48 year old man
Bitcoin Isn't Acting Like Stocks, Stocks Are Acting Like Bitcoin
"What's going on guys. It is thursday march fourth. And today i am going to try to flip a mental model. Here's my proposition. Bitcoin is an acting like stocks right now. Stocks are acting like bitcoin so it started this conversation. We need to hop on over to twitter where there is a lot of discussion right now around. Rising treasury yields when the year started the ten year treasury yield was at zero point nine three percent versus the closer to one point four seven percent it is now that yields spiked even over one point six percent last week. So what is driving the rise of these treasury bonds this. Us government debt in short. It's expectations of a stronger economy. Vaccines keep getting rolled out with new ones coming on the market which suggests that all american adults who want to can be vaccinated by basically the beginning of the summer simultaneously. You're seeing restrictions on businesses being rolled back and the market doesn't believe in fact that the fed is going to be able to keep rates as low as they've been or continue the sort of asset purchase programs to provide liquidity that they've been doing now. These rising treasuries have been causing havoc in the public markets and part of the issue is valuations the s. and p. five hundred is currently trading at twenty two ex expected earnings which is close to the highest. It's been in twenty years. In december two thousand nine six months after previous it was trading at fourteen acts with this means that even small changes in the treasury yields which is another way of saying small changes in how appealing bonds are as compared to stocks can cause major spasms particularly for tech companies which are trading at the highest earnings multiples. There is also. I should note some real wildness happening. In the repo markets ribaud stands for repurchase agreement and repos are collateralized short term loans which help financial institutions. Keep money flowing are used by the fed to conduct monetary policy basically the repo rate is a measure of financial institutions with cash willingness to lend on a short term basis. We saw it in insane. Spike in september twenty nineteen when the overnight repo rate rose's highest ten percent and there were still acquitted. He crunches it. Seems like there's something big going on right now in the repo market that we might need to discuss but for the sake of this conversation i wanna keep more broad basically sum up treasuries or freaking equities out and even bringing bitcoin into the conversation. Aucoin desk headline article today reads. Bitcoin hovers below fifty k. As traders await feds take on bond yields quote according to analysts. Comments powell is monitoring events in the treasury market. Might be enough to calm things down encouraging return to a softer dollar that could bode well for bitcoin. Stocks both assets have mostly moved in the opposite direction to the dollar index over the past twelve months however the rally in yields may accelerate leading to a stronger dollar and weaker bitcoin. If powell downplays concerns over rising bond yields taking cues from his european central bank counterparts quote. No such concern from powell would suggest the fed is happy for treasury yields to find the right level as our bond strategy colleagues say potentially triggering another spike in yields and more dollar short-covering ing analysts noted. So what do people think powell is going to say in. Today's comments many things. That powell will try to convince markets that the bank will be ultra patient in any pullback of support for the economy some like bloomberg. Don't think he'll explicitly say they're going to cap long term interest rates instead most think that he will reaffirm the feds determination to meet their updated. Inflation and employment goals employment specifically has been the key here basically. The fed has been more or less saying that they are willing to do whatever it takes until full employment is achieved so even if it seems like markets are steaming. That's fine as long as they can get to full employment. They already previewed this position this week. With comments from fed governor lael brainard who said that. The fed has quote quite a lot of ground to cover to meet its objectives. The question becomes what tools the fed actually has. The first is words. What bloomberg calls forward guidance light fed is currently buying one hundred and twenty billion dollars of assets per month eighty billion and treasuries and forty billion in mortgage backed debt. They could potentially be explicit about when they intend to scale that back rather than leaving it to market guesses they could also be even more definitive and precise about what it would take for them to raise rates. What if words don't work however what would come next while there could be some more. Extreme courses of action. Bloomberg discusses to the first is a resumption of operation twist in which the fed would eliminate their holdings of t. bills which are shorter maturation of usually a year or less and put money into longer dated securities. The benefit would be that it would alleviate downward pressure on t. bill rates which are currently threatening to go negative.
The unemployment rate is above 20% for the lowest-paid workers, Fed's Brainard says
"The nation's unemployment rate in December was 6.7%, but it's likely much higher for the country's lowest paid workers. In a speech today, federal deserved Governor Layla Brainard said the job was straight for the lowest quarter. Would be workers is likely above 20% Raynard vowed that the central bank will continue to support the economy's recovery with aggressive policy actions for some time to come. That's your money. Now,
Who Could Serve IN The Biden Administration
"Now. The current incumbent of the white house is showing no signs of planning to pack his suitcases. But that hasn't stopped president-elect joe biden from pushing ahead with his plans for the fresh administration a large part of this is the people who will make this administration so comparative unknown who will become household. Names come january for more. I'm joined by louis. Lukens a former. Us diplomat and a senior partner at sigme global advisors. Welcome back lewis. You want it now. i'm i mentioned here. That comparative unknown but the list of the runners and writers to make up the Biden cabinet this pretty well known names in there. He's going to bring on a really experienced team of people. All of whom most of them will have had experienced during the obama or administration's These will be maybe not household names To the american people but most of them will be known certainly within the national security establishment for the top jobs at defense and the state department and national security adviser and those kinds of jobs. So where do we start with. Who's going to pay. When i mean he's likely to name a chief of staff this week. Isn't he chief of staff this week. Probably ron claim who was as chief of staff before and and is a well respected in washington that liked cross the. I'll have to say for the cabinet positions Biden will be a little bit constrained by the senate because the senate of course has to approve The the secretary of state and defense and all those main all the cabinet positions so and we think the republicans are probably going to maintain control of the senate. So what that means is for example. There was some talk that elizabeth warren wanted to be secretary of the treasury. That will not happen now. The the republicans in the senate will not confirm a left-wing progressive democrat for a top job. So it'll force by his cabinet choices to be more centrist Which is not a bad thing actually But it means at that. The progressive wing of the party won't get the sort of personnel appointments obeyed hope to see in washington now filling. His cabinet job says he will give priority to technocratic experience. Loyalty and diversity. What does that mean in terms of who. We are likely to see for some of the top jobs well so he has pledged to have the most diverse cabinet ever. I think so. I think the front runner for secretary of state is susan rice. Her confirmation might be a little bit difficult because the republicans do not like her. But i think they will still try to get her through. I think we'll see a woman a treasury for the first time ever lael brainard. I think we'll see a female secretary of defense for the first time ever with blank florida. Yes michelle foreign. I of course so. I think we'll see a lot of women. And i think we'll see some. And then when you get down into the secretary of urban housing and urban development and human services and health and human services and things like that. I think we'll see people of color We'll see women will see Just in general a much more diverse cabinet than what we have now which is basically a lot of older white men. Let's look at the way that this actually could play out. You mentioned the idea of susan. Rice becoming the next secretary of state we need enormous job in rebuilding us foreign policy after four rather damaging years. One could argue. I mean she's former. Us ambassador to the un national security advisor to president obama. She's she's walk the walk. She's got the experience. She's close to joe biden. She'll be good at rebuilding alliances but there is that fair. Isn't there that if you start trying to bring back people from the obama administration. How much is concerned that. I think that joe biden is simply trying to wind the clock back by four years when america is a very different place now will america is a different place in the world is a different place so there is a bit of that risk. But i think that hurts that biden's team and and his cabinet members will make very clear that they recognize that reality and they certainly are going to bring Some of the values in core beliefs that that they that they had when they worked during the obama administration. Including you know for someone like susan. Rice a belief in working closely with partners and allies in in a belief in multilateral. Ism but you know overlaid with the recognition that the world is certainly a different place in that china is stronger than it was four years ago. And we're dealing with you know. Global threats like terrorism and climate change and In the pandemic so certainly a different range of issues in a different approach to how to work on them But as. I said you know the same values that these people had when they work for obama For years ago one of the big words associated with joe button is unifying and there is a suggestion that he's going to have what's known as a unity cabinet bringing in prominent republicans. How's that going to work. Well it's unclear. I think it's a great idea. In principle to bring in a couple of republicans but some of the republicans whose names have been floated including john casick and mitt. Romney are very very unpopular with the left of the democratic party so he has to be careful in doing so not to upset his own party too much. I think a meg whitman's name has been thrown around as a possible candidate for secretary of commerce. She is someone Lifelong republican but she did endorse a biden and actually endorsed hillary clinton for years ago She is someone who i think would be acceptable to the left of the party. Someone like john. Casick are mitt romney's little bit harder to convince the the progressive that they add value without detracting from the cabinet.
I Guess It's Time to Move?
"I gave everything away. One friend took my Ottoman another took my copy of the collected works of Joe Brainard. And unloaded it all in handoffs in the park where I'd played the object between us, and then my friend would take it in their arms. My possessions became the conduit for our intimacy because I couldn't hug them goodbye and I couldn't throw a party. I was moving during Cova D-. It felt like a bonkers idea to move right now. Although it seems like a lot of people are doing it. In this time of enforced stillness, there is so much motion. I moved I moved I moved. Yeah. I did lose during covid from Washington DC. To New Orleans across the country from. And everything I've ever known to the House of my dreams to my parents House Boston to Aspen from Florida to Wisconsin from the area to a big college town in the Midwest I bought a house and moved into an during the pandemic. The. Best part of it was the houses on corona drive, but it's also just been strange per. Hard, to get furniture. Pretty alone. And pretty trapped for me. It's meant. Taking a lot of walks and bike rides often with no particular destination mine, it's been it's very difficult to meet new people and hard to connect to people. I, would see people that I didn't know and wonder what it was like to sort of know those people know the people of this place very much expecting to transform into some. What do we all have that fantasy as moving into a city where no one knows we are becoming the best version of ourselves and that's really not happening right now. The first night the taxi drop me off at my apartment I may as well have been in Toronto or Chicago. The summer heat was homogenising and the museums and theaters and restaurants that had meant New York to me were shuttered. There was nowhere to go beyond the strange new building. I called home. What was this city just beyond the confines of my apartment? I WANNA? Say the thing that really makes a city is the people. But that's the element that really broke my heart. I text a friend like Hey I'm in Brooklyn do you want to hang out? And then it turned out so many of them were moving away. So many of them. Yes. So what the hell away you live included in this mass exodus is my new CO worker at the cut Madeleine. I. I just sort of decided to leave. We're sitting on Mattie stoop in Brooklyn but this week. Mattie is moving to Austin Texas. I knew a couple of people in Austin it sounded really cool. I've never been but I never have been. But. I was like, why not seems cool. I could never take a risk like this. I feel like I was only able to move to New York because I'm from here and my family is still here I had a job here and I planned it all out although Mattias still working for the cut but she can just log onto slack from wherever I think it's cool to be like. To just start a new life and be like, what is it GonNa be like, who am I going to know? Where am I going to go? What's IT GONNA look like. Those uncertainties are very exciting to me. I mean, yeah I definitely felt that. Moving to my new city felt like having crush. But. It was kind of the crash where you don't really know someone and then suddenly you're imagining what your grandkids will look like. Definitely have an image of myself. An outdoorsy person. I'm going to have a car for the first time in my life, which is huge. So I'm like just constantly picturing myself driving around. It's like I can be a new person like you know in this new place that can be whoever I want to be. Although I've heard it said that everywhere you go. There you are. I don't really know how much one can actually change in a new place especially now. Like when I first moved here in the summer I kinda did all the same things? I. Did back when I lived in Oakland I, biked around ad in the park I took a covert test I cooked my dinners at home. I made this podcast in the closet. You can't completely escape your old self in some ways. It's just you in a different room, the of just like logging on. To slack and having everything be exactly the same when I'm in a new city in a new apartment like have gone through this huge change it's just gonNa be so weird.
The Fed has capped bank dividends and suspended buybacks after stress tests
"For the first time in the ten years of stress, testing banks are required to resubmit their capital plans later this year to reflect the current environment by chair Randall. Quarrels notes in a statement that there is quote material uncertainty about the trajectory for the economic recovery in its impact on banking organizations, and not all governors agreed to let the banks continue payouts even if If, they're limited fed governor Lael brainard said in a separate statement that she does not support giving the green light for large banks to deplete capital which raises the risk they will need to tighten credit or rebuilt capital during the recovery coverage, informing this decision by the Fed was a covert sensitivity overlay for their traditional stress tests where the test of the bank's viability under three hypothetical recessions in subsequent recoveries, v-shaped, u-shaped and w shaped. The Fed notes that there are scenarios are not predictions of the likely path of the economy in aggregate, though the Fed said loan losses for the thirty four banks tested amounted to five hundred and sixty billion to seven hundred billion dollars aggregate capital. Ratios declined from twelve. Twelve percent in the fourth quarter of two thousand nineteen to between nine point five to seven point seven percent in the hypothetical downside, they did not break out the results of the cove analysis on individual banks, but in the after hours investors have been drawing their own conclusions with mixed results depending on the bank mixed performance depending on the Bank Melissa all right Leslie, thank you Leslie picture with the results of the stress has a lot to think about. There are a lot to think about in terms of how it affects the bank trade, but there's also this to think about. Take a listen to what David Ellison of the Hennessy funds said on the closing bell just a few moments ago. There really inserting themselves, and and basically acting like they want to act in a sense that these companies are effectively nationalized. and. We're seeing the effect of that today. in what they're saying, so they're worried about the the appear to be more worried about the economy than the market is. Again heard Powell last week. Say that he was worried now. It seems like we're hearing that again. And this is going to be an ongoing thing. The banks are going to be battling this for the next couple years. So they are effectively nationalized according to this bank investor, guide me. What does this all mean for the bank trade? Yeah. It's interesting. I mean I. Don't know if I'd go that far that the bank should be but I I respected the the opinion on that. Know what it means for the bank trade I don't think the value proposition of the reason you were getting wanted to belong J. P. Morgan was because of the dividend or their stock. Buy Back. I mean I. Don't think that's why you're long the stock, but I understand the headline. This is somewhat shocking, although probably not all that. Surprising quite frankly, I think a lot of people probably saw this coming I think the bigger headline was the reason I thought. The market rally in the first place was a relaxation of the Volcker rule to a certain extent. I think that's why banks had the big run. Now you have to wonder if the timing was somewhat coincidental. I still would submit the following. Pretty steadfast on this you're looking for opportunities to by name like J. P. Morgan for that now second potential run up to one fifteen, and we've done the math for you. I mean one fifteen for J. P. Morgan is putting a one point eight multiple on sixty two dollars tangible book, and it makes a lot of sense. Go back and look where we traded up to a couple of weeks ago and that to me is where the market wants to go I. Don't think it's I. Don't think this is the reason to be bearish the broader market although you know I am. But I do think the headline is probably going to some people carrying. You've been a longtime investor in the bank specifically, certainly not for the dividends, certainly not for the share buybacks. Knew that they were gonNA suspend by back at least for this quarter. So how do you factor this into your investment thesis? So. I mean I guess it makes sense I that they say. Let's see how the year unfolds before we decide whether or not you're going to be allowed to to pay your dividend, or at what level you'll be allowed to pay your dividend, so that sort of makes sense to me i. think what is going to be more important I think is how bad are the provision for loan losses going to be in this quarter? And how bad are they going to be given that we are having difficulty reopening? How sustainable those losses to be going through the throughout the year, so I had thought that the first quarter and the second I'm sorry, the quarter ending in. June, and this next one I'm sorry. March marching, June would be the worst quarters of the year. Maybe there's another bad quarter here. It is interesting to me though that the Volcker rule did come out on the same day that I mean that's sort of like back to go go times. To? The stress tests. But I think the story hasn't really dramatically changed today we'll be. It'll be interesting when we see on Monday. Who is going to change their dividend? Would seem like Wells Fargo is maybe a likely candidate. For BANKAMERICA's city and JP Morgan. The big money centers I don't think they're moving much I. saw city up a little JP Morgan down a little and Bankamerica down. Little I don't think a whole lot has changed to me. It still comes down to how bad will the loss be? Yeah, Goldman after hours one of the biggest loser, if down two and a half percent, a wells Fargo's down one and. And a half percent.
TSA insider faults agency's response to coronavirus
"The TSA whistleblower is alleging that the agency failed to protect staff and endangered passengers during the earliest days of the coronavirus prices and he says the you see still isn't doing enough as airline travel is begun to tick back up this summer and here's to mac reports the complaint was judged credible by an independent government watchdog which has ordered an investigation TSA federal security director Jay Brainard told NPR that mismanagement led to TSA staff becoming quote a significant carrier for the spread of corona virus to airport travelers he alleges that in mid March he has to make masks mandatory for staff in Kansas the state he oversees and was told now he also provided evidence that the TSA withheld N. ninety five masks from its employees Brainard said that even now months later the TSA response has been inadequate on Thursday evening an independent federal agency which handles whistleblower complaints said they found quote the substantial likelihood of wrongdoing in Brainerd allegations and ordered the department of homeland security to
Warm weather, storms, ticks and algae blooms
"F._d._i._c. <music> good morning and happy friday everybody n._p._r. chief meteorologist paulaner here sitting in for angela davis today welcome to the weather lab for a special edition of climate cast today and boy what a wild weather week are ninety degree heat steamy tropical do points in the seventies they feel feel some some big big storms storms this this week week i i heard heard constant constant thunder thunder at at the the weather weather lab lab on on monday monday we we saw saw trees trees down down and and oh oh yeah yeah the the flash flash floods floods does does does does this sound familiar that was water in the streets of brainard courtesy of rene richardson at the brainer dispatch same scenes played out in uptown minneapolis and saint louis park on tuesday evening and the twin cities what a wild commute that was so today let's look at the science behind those thunderstorms and then later on climate cast yes the ticks are coming why does are warmer wetter climates support more ticks and what new diseases diseases are they bringing to minnesota plus july has water month here at m._p._r. house are warmer climate affecting our lakes rivers that's coming up but i sorry for the shock wave there that's the the sound of a direct hit by lightning on a tree in trevor riley's home in kensington maryland this week the video was incredible just bark flying everywhere he shared the video on twitter of of this tree exploding would chunks flying from his backyard backyard security camera so lightning thunder hail tornadoes even microbursts love him or hatim they're part of our minnesota summers what about you do you have questions about the science behind severe weather we're gonna talk about that today give us a call with your question or comment
Prince Harry and Meghan Markle meet the president of Ireland
"Dog has died joshua who was a nine year old english bulldog died on tuesday weeks after winning the twenty eighteen world's ugliest dog contest in california in which dogs flaunt their imperfections joshua's owner megan brainerd of minnesota has told nbc's today show the dog was staying with her father and he found she'd passed away when he got up in the morning brainard says josh never really showed much excitement but that she knew she was special businesses advertised fewer jobs in may than the previous month but the number of open positions was more than the number of people unemployed for only the second time in the past two decades there were six point six four million available jobs in may and six million unemployed people the labor department also says the proportion of workers who quit their jobs and may reach the highest level since april two thousand one when people quit their jobs it's seen as a positive sign they're confident they can find another one most people who quit do so for higher paying positions the figures reflect a strong job market driven by optimistic employers seeking to expand their workforce's prince harry and his wife the former actress meghan markle of met with the president of ireland on their first official overseas trip as a married couple the duke and duchess of sussex has their formerly known visited president michael d higgins at his official residence on wednesday it's part of their two day tour of dublin students and tourists flocked to the irish capitals trinity college screaming and shouting to greet the royal couple hi i'm ralph rousseau ap college football writer and host of the ap top twenty five college football podcast available on apple podcast and podcast one while there.
27-year-old man hijacked by his own roommate
"A man fatally shot his wife and then himself outside of a business and woodhaven investigators say the couple in their early twenties had a vehicle trouble and were arguing outside the victims were found by police with gunshot wounds to their heads a handgun was recovered at the scene a 27yearold man was carjacked by his roommate in the area of barton and rangoon in detroit his vehicle was silver two thousand four pontiac grand prix was taken as well as his wallet credit cards and cell phone police identified the suspect as a 22yearold hispanic man with a silver and black handgun the victim told police that his roommate took his car and fled in an unknown on direction the detroit police department looking for a person of interest to the sexual assault of a five year old girl last week a male suspect came through the bedroom of the little girl in allegedly sexually attacked her the attack happened on detroit's east side in the six hundred block of brainard anyone with information is asked to call the police wjr news time six o five with traffic and weather first here's tracy rats thanks are matter.