23 Burst results for "Bill James"
"bill james" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York
"Aaron judge. Judge was walked four times and remains at 60 ohm runs one shine. Roger marriage is 61 AL record. I just reviewed this. I mean, I'm in a camp a walk as a single. So the guy was four for 5 last night, a number of the walks were in three two pitches. He's not like reaching out over the plate trying to get a cheap home run. He's being an adult. He does this. Yeah. But if you look at it at the record, they're putting it down is like zero for one or something, but the official app. But they're pitching to them. Most of these clubs are pitching to them, but that if it get behind, they're not going to give them something to hit. You don't want to be the pitcher to be that guy. You don't want to be the trivia question when it comes up in tribute. I'm sorry, maybe they're on this. Doug Cass is down there dying in Florida Who's behind him betting? I mean, does he have strength behind embedding? Oh, well, yeah. He's the most, he is the most. He's leading off. First of all, to get maximizes the number of fats. And then I think it's been tourism or something. I'm not sure who's batting, but they have good hitters behind them. So people kind of kind of have to pitch them. Yeah, unless you're really in a we agree a walk is a single. Yeah, I agree. I'm in that camp. I've never understood that's Billy ball. You know, the Billy bean, you know? Just get on base. Because two, three, two, some spec exactly. You get two runs. Whoever's the second third and fourth batter, that's she runs. If you do it right. Yeah, I mean, Bill James, I think educated us and all that matters is you score runs. Yep. Nothing else. Did I do okay there? That's more Yankee chat than I've ever done in my entire life. And that's
"bill james" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Yelling and hurling of bats and you really think every time you're surprised, have you checked? So here's a question then. So you know this about yourself, right? You've identified this as a trait of yours while watching baseball. And it's one that I don't have judgment about 'cause you're right. We're not at the optimal angle to be able to say to provide either an answer to the binary question, yes or no, did he go? And then to your point to properly assess all the time, the degree of the going. The degree to which he went, how far around he went? What is my anyway? And so I don't think that this is like, I don't know that you were feeling embarrassed, maybe I shouldn't assume you shouldn't feel embarrassed about that. I think it's a weird thing that we have to from the center field camera try to judge. Like sometimes you can really tell when a guy went, but awesome. So you say. Yeah, well, you know, but again, I have not revealed a hit rate. So who knows what I know, really? I could just be useless. You don't know. You're assuming I know. I don't know. Did he go? Don't know. Anyway, so I don't think you need to feel embarrassed about, oh, so here was going to be my question. Tracking through my mind, people are listening to me being like, is that what the inside of her brain sounds like all the time? That's terrifying. Having noticed this about yourself, have you tried to spend an inning focused on being able to arrive at an answer every time it's come up or have you just said it doesn't matter if I know or not because they're going to show it to me on replay. I'm just curious. I have not because I just recently had this flashback inside. The scales have fallen from my eyes. So maybe now that I know this about myself, I will watch more carefully. So we'll see. I have that interested in check swings for a while. I remember like ten years ago, I did this long article for baseball prospectus because Bill James, who was working for the Red Sox at the time at a saber analytics conference, he said he made the point essentially that umpires have different check swing success rates like base umpires and teams are aware of that and that they take advantage of that in the same way that, for instance, teams are aware of umpires tendencies when it comes to calling pitches, and so they might approach a plate appearance differently. And I was surprised, skeptical, just read, he said, the different first base third base umpires are wildly inconsistent in how they call the check swing strike, major league teams are aware of that and under certain conditions, the starting pitcher will be aware that the first base empire likes to call will call the strike because if you throw a slider down and away, he'll start to swing at it, he'll check, there's a swing and it's really important that that's an empire that tends to call that a strike or tends not to call it a strike. So yeah, we're aware of that stuff and we watch it, and I would bet almost every team is on top of that issue. Wow. Yeah, which still sounds strange to me that teams would be like, what's the first third base umpires check swing appeal success rate and with that govern whether we throw a slider or whether we throw it a little farther down or away or something? Because we'll be more or less likely to get the call. It sounds far fetched to me. I mean, pew is working for a team and I guess he would know that they were paying attention to that, but I acquired this data, which was not publicly available at the time and did this whole big study about it and from what I recall there wasn't really like that huge a difference. Yeah, like how many, how many bronze a year? I mean, forget wins. How many runs a year are you really? Yeah, not a lot. My conclusion here, the difference between the highest and lowest is only about 10% like the check swing appeal success rate, although I said the true difference is likely more dramatic because I guess the data I had, I guess I had all check swings, not just check swings that were appealed. Maybe was what I was working with, so it wasn't perfect data. So it seemed like there was some difference in the rates, but I don't know if it was enough to govern your pitch selection or something, although I did find when I broke it down by count that it seemed like there was the same kind of effect that we see with the strike zone where the strike zone will shrink on O2, let's say the strike zone is a lot smaller. And therefore, if you throw a pitch on the corner, it might be a strike on three O, but not on O two. And similarly, you're less likely it seems to get the call on a check swing if it's O2, which is kind of interesting. It's like that same kind of compassionate umpire effect that helps the better get back into the plate appearance or helps whichever party is currently disadvantaged in that plate appearance, get a little leg up. So there do seem to be some differences there, but I don't know that it would affect my game planning that much. I'm just saying we should perhaps just take this out of the umpires hands. Now, if there were some huge difference that teams were actually planning for and exploiting like this, then I guess you could say, oh no, if we do away with this and we have robo check swing calls, then we will remove the skill that is at play here, but I don't think that was apparent to anyone the way that catcher receiving is too a spectator who's watching the TV or could be if you are hip to that and you're paying attention to that. So I don't think I would miss it. Anyway. A lot of thoughts that I've had about check swing slightly. Yeah, I mean, now I'm gonna, now I'm gonna try to make an informal study of my own accuracy when it comes to these things. Please do. Because maybe I'm wrong, maybe I am only believing it to be 50% that I go yeah. One way or the other and then who knows what's right after that, I don't know, man, now what does anything mean? Well, even the fact that you think they went around sometimes differentiates you from me. Just like no way. I mean like Ben. I said that I don't want to make you feel badly about yourself. And I am here to that, but I am going to say, I think sometimes it's pretty obvious that they went. Nope. You know, I think sometimes you look at them and you're like, but maybe I am watching the bat more often than you. And so here would be an interesting little bit across comparison.
"bill james" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"In his piece that he's been pitched around more lately, perhaps unsurprisingly, he's seeing fewer pitches in the strike zone. So I will be curious to see whether he starts expanding that already huge strike zone to try to go after the record, or will he stay disciplined, which he mostly has so far, if that's costing him hacks and possibly homers. So that's something to watch, and I hope that the Yankees play him, even if they have a playoff spot locked up and they could give him days off. Go for it. Let's see some history. And speaking of history, before we bring on Dan, let's do the pass blast. So this is episode 1886, past blast to come from 1886 and from Richard hershberger, historian, saber researcher, and author of strike for the evolution of baseball. So this comes from sporting life, February 3rd, 1886, and Richard says an idea being floated in 1886 was to eliminate the errors column from the score. The thinking was that recording errors discouraged fielders from going all out to get at balls. After all, you can't be given an error if you never touch the ball. But how to measure fielding performance. Sports writer, OP kaler has a suggestion. Do you ask what I would have instead of the error column? This, I would give every Fielder credit for all he did every assist in every put out without recording his failures. Then every Fielder would be interested in taking every chance. However, desperate, without fear of loss by doing so. I would then make out the player's averages by the number of the cis and put outs he had, divided by the number of games he played and compare every man's record only with the record of the other fellows of his position. So this op Taylor guy, ahead of his time, smart cat. So Richard writes, this is almost exactly the same as range factor, invented by Bill James A. century later. The only difference is that James used innings played as the denominator, whereas Taylor suggests games played in the 1886 context in which the only substitutions are due to injury, these are nearly the same thing. However, he says the idea died and immediate and quiet death. Killer offered the ideas and alternative to errors and feeling percentage discussion about eliminating the errors column died down so no need was seen for an alternative. And so this went back into mothballs for another hundred years or so until Bill James independently, I assumed proposed the same thing. So. Wow. Yeah. It's pretty cool. Every now and then. I mean, there were people who were thinking with a saber metric mindset back in the early days of baseball and the game and the media and the public were just not ready for those things yet. But the flaws of some of those standard stats were apparent even then and that is the flaw that we talked about with errors now that someone might be sure handed, but not have a lot of range and just not get a lot of chances and if you don't get your hand on the ball, then you can't commit an error as these things are typically scored and that can not be reflective in all cases of a Fielder's actual talent and I hadn't even really thought that yeah, if you're emphasizing errors, then you are going to disincentivize defenders from even trying to make the play because if it's a tough play, well, don't even get involved. Because then you could get penalized for trying and failing as opposed to just not even getting there. So who knows how things could have been different if they had retired the error earlier and we had just had range factor from the start. All right. Well, thank you to Richard for that. We will take a quick break and then we'll be back with
"bill james" Discussed on Patriots Beat
"If you tell me, well, he's expected batting average was this because the launch angle could have been this and in this percentage of ballparks, if the weather is this, this ball falls here. No, no, too many variables at that point. With the sports are a large enough sample size, we're all evens out. I don't want to hear a bad expected. I don't. Yeah. That's where it kills me. And then using it to evaluate players in bringing players is where my problem is. That's fair. I think that that's a big difference between, I think that's where the lines get muddied because like a lot of people attack analytics and attack the nerds because of the expected stuff, right? Like probability models, all that. But really what analytics were burnt as or what I was just talking about, right? Well, it's two. Bill and Ernie created their analytics in like the early 2000s. But before, but that was when they were only in baseball. I'm talking about like the Bill James analytics. Yeah. Those I have no time for. Tendencies are great. I love tendencies. I think tendencies are a big part of sports. Blindly applying them and then adding random information to them that you know, because you want to form your own argument. I think analytics are just people proving their own arguments. With BS numbers, right? It's once you start applying the tendencies to things that aren't tangible, that's where you lose. That's right, I lose it. Yeah. It's really cool because I think a lot of NFL teams nowadays, they get handed packets from their analytics teams, or their nerds, or whatever you want to call it, that have tendencies, right? That say, okay, here's the percentage of plays that they run every single run blocking scheme, right? Like the forty-niners run outside zone this many times. The Patriots run power. This many times. And they get handed these packets. This is how many times they run this coverage. This is how many times they run go routes. This is how many times they run, you know, corners, crossers, whatever. That type of stuff is really, really useful. I'm with you though, that, you know, the math should inform the coaches, the coaches should not be the ones informing the maths department, basically. Fair enough. All right. I'm all for having all the information you're disposable. Just know what you're doing with it. Yeah, we've run really long. We're a little over. That was a good discussion though. Because we can definitely get lost. I think that was, that was his eye to eyes we've ever seen on the analytics debate, I think, so. Yeah, because I'm with you on the predictive models because they don't take into a fan enough factors, right? Like what's the weather? It's impossible. What's the game flow? What's all these things? It's really difficult to be able to take those things all into account. All right, how much dog in them? You can't measure that. Right. Who's got heart, right? Miles and miles. That's the difference. Okay, let's wrap this up. Alex and I are going to be back on Thursday. Another throwback Thursday. I think we should give it away to the people that have watched for an hour and 19 minutes. I appreciate the 224 people that hung on with us here. We are going to break down Deion branch on Thursday. Alex and I are really looking forward to this one..
"bill james" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Anyway, Steve wrote in to say that he understood this concept to be The Big Bang Theory of baseball, a 1980s idea advanced by Tom Boswell, the former Washington Post columnist, and this does seem to be the case, Boswell wrote about it in the early 80s, and he asserted that it was true based on a study of previous World Series games, and in the 1981 baseball abstract Bill James took him to task and showed that using World Series games as his database led to a flawed conclusion because World Series games rely more on beginnings than regular season games do, and there are more shutouts in the World Series two, so by definition, those are games where the winner's biggest inning produces more runs than the losers entire total, so James debunked the idea that strict construction of the idea, according to Boswell, and seemingly Boswell was influenced by Earl weaver as well, he of the three run Homer and the beginning, but angel was writing about that in 1975, so maybe Boswell got the idea from him, maybe it was floating out there in the ether, maybe angel heard it from weaver. I don't know who originated it, but it did have a name The Big Bang Theory, and it was associated with Boswell, and then debunked by Bill James. And lastly, we talked last week about hidden ball tricks, the fact that we don't see them much anymore at the major league level, not since 2017, perhaps because time is called so often these days, at least in part. And I think Meg may have mentioned on that episode I wonder if sports info solutions has numbers on this. Well, we have a listener and Patreon supporter Alex vickerman, who is an analyst for SIS, and he wrote in to say SIS tracks all kinds of specific good fielding plays, and we do have a category for deceiving base runners that category has only existed since 2017 and includes some other kinds of plays. The overwhelmingly most common 24 times in 5 plus years is intentionally dropping a ball in the air, which doesn't follow in the same conceptual bucket as a true hidden ball trick. They have 13 instances of pretending to make a play at second base when runner is going, forcing him to slide and causing him to either not advance when he could have, or get doubled up at first on a flyout. They have 11 recorded incidents of on a fly ball, pretending the play is easier or harder than it is to get the base runners to make a mistake, think lining up for a fly ball to stall the runners only to then play the ball off the wall, and ten times they have recorded a Fielder pretending to have the ball on an errant throw to second base to keep the runner on second. However, they do not have a more recent example of the hidden ball trick than the one we mentioned on that episode 2017 rain goings.
"bill james" Discussed on Trivia With Budds
"Thanks for checking out my show. Thanks for leaving iTunes reviews and thanks for telling a friend. Who loves trivia to give it a listen. We've got a great episode for you today with ten questions on nursery rhymes from Bill James, but before we get to that, we have our family feud, movie edition face off question. And I think this will be the last one, I'm gonna try and find another stack of trivia cards or game cards of some kind to read in the intro here, but I have gotten to the end of my little stack from family feud. So here's your last one. Name a movie about a wedding or weddings in general. Top 6 answers on the board. This game came out in 2019, so it's got to be a movie from 2019 or before. And top 6 answers name a movie about a wedding or weddings in general. Number 6, the wedding singer, 6 people said that. Number 5 27 dresses 8 people said that one. Number four on the board, the wedding planner with who is that, Jennifer Lopez, 9 people said that. Number three, wedding crashers, one of my favorites, Vince Vaughn Owen Wilson, 11 people. And number two, my big fat Greek wedding, 23 people said that. Number one, still holding on to number one for man, this, I think, came out over 30 years ago, four weddings, and a funeral, four weddings, and a funeral, which I think they made into a Hulu series, not too long ago as well. That looked kind of fun. So maybe I'll check that out at some point. What have I been watching? Oh, the new letter Kenny, spin off. Shoresy came out this past weekend. So I'm going to start watching that. I think later tonight, very excited about that one. We're going to jump into ten questions on nursery rhymes from Bill James right now. Here we go. It's.
"bill james" Discussed on Open Floor: SI's NBA Show
"Hospitals millions of dollars, once someone bothered to notice her, and he sits down with baseball statistician, Bill James, and hears how his analysis transformed not only our understanding of baseball, but of the world, against the rules will leave you thinking differently about the experts in our society. Listen to against the rules wherever you get podcasts. Actually, I was going to pivot to the Eastern Conference Finals, but there's a question that we got an email from Troy. I threw this on the outline late, Rohan, did you have a chance to look at this one? I don't read the emails. I know you don't even open up the outline. It's fine. My inbox is only unread messages from Michael penis. This is a another Mavs kind of related. So I figure we'll throw this in right now. It's a fun one. So it comes in from Troy. Who writes, while watching the entire playoffs, the NBA media has gone on a wild ride with the Mavericks roster. The more they won, the more the media was. This was a good one. It was a good one. It doesn't have enough around Luca to quote Mavs in 6 against Golden State. And now it will backslide. But it got me thinking of the 20 teams that made the playoffs including the plan opponents. How many teams would be better if you switched Luca with the other team's best player? So this is a I was thinking about this. I was like, this is kind of like silly. It's harder than you'd think though. Because of how teams are constructed. I think the heat would be worse with Luca. I think that you could, you could go both ways. Honestly, I was thinking about it. I was like, okay, so let's assume that let's say let's say that Jimmy is the best player. Yeah. You agree with that? Yes. Okay, so Jimmy's defense is kind of integral to how they play. Yes. And it would things would have to shift entirely. They would have to play a different way. And the shooting offensively. The shooting offensively is not good enough around Luca in my opinion. It isn't, and the way Jimmy plays. And I say this and I think they led the league in three point percentage, but no, they did, but it's really their lineups were weird. But I think if you think about it, like how they're built, Tyler hero and Luca make no sense together on a basketball court at the same time. How would you line up would have to be around those two right there? So it's just, and then on the other end is like, wait, but it's Lucca. And Luca plus bam would be, man, that would be devastating. Yeah. So I don't know. That's a tough one. I was thinking about the same thing with the Celtics. I was like, all right, so Tatum, Luca for Tatum. And I'm like, the strength of the Celtics is that they have absolutely no weak points on defense for the most part. So if you suddenly have Luca, a guy who they also the way they play is like, man movement, ball movement, they share it. High assist rate, so you'd have to just change a whole lot of stuff and how so defensively, I think they would definitely take a step back. Also like the Celtics have looked their worst season when they're in the half court, not like one guy's dribbling. You know what I mean?.
"bill james" Discussed on Open Floor: SI's NBA Show
"Hey guys, open floor here. We want to share with you another podcast. We think you'll like. On the against the rules podcast, bestselling author Michael Lewis, yes, that's the Michael Lewis, who wrote Moneyball and the blind side, takes a hard look at what's happened to fairness in American life. He's explored referees and coaches and now he's taking on a new group, experts. When people think of experts, they think of in your face, know it all. But finding an expert can be like searching for a needle in a haystack because while experts are getting better and better, we are getting less willing to hear what they have to say. Michael ventures to the depths of the sea, meeting an oceanographer who has saved countless lives, but the survivors don't even know his name. He looks at our healthcare system and learns how a medical biller saved hospitals millions of dollars, once someone bothered to notice her, and he sits down with baseball statistician, Bill James, and hears how his analysis transformed not only our understanding of baseball, but of the world, against the rules will leave you thinking differently about the experts in our society. Listen to against the rules wherever you get podcasts. Okay, what series do you want to go to next? Let's go to Phoenix Dallas because I was there. Your expertise. And that game for we were talking about this yesterday where we tried to record the podcast, but could not. That game four was a hostile environment was intense. You could sense the animosity between the teams. In the opening minutes and I feel like there's been all this focus on Phoenix's defense. Like look at the threes, the Mavs are getting. The massive and shooting almost 43s a game since game one. And I'm like, I'm more worried about the sun's offense, which posted back to back games, at least a one 30 offensive rating. And they averaged, I think, under a hundred points in games three and four. So yeah, I just want to go to that one because my question is like, what is going on with Phoenix's offense? Do you, okay, my question was in his postgame column. How will Rohan find a way to carry Chris Paul's water? I think I was pretty critical of Chris Paul in my most recent pretty sure. You were, but I actually screenshot on my phone because I'm going to throw it at you when we have to get into the text wars. At some point, but I screenshot a graph that you did write about the fouls that Chris Paul committed and how three of them were not vowels. I just said, I didn't say they were not. I said they were conceptual. I will say, okay, I will say it's the 6th one, probably you don't want to call that in a playoff game. The 6th one, the 6th one, I just straight up think that was a terrible call. The offensive foul that he had where he stuck his butt out. I thought that should have been a no call. I don't think that should have been offensive foul. I mean, that's not been called an offensive foul the.
"bill james" Discussed on Open Floor: SI's NBA Show
"I don't know. I'm sorry, I'm going off of like three hours sleep again. You can execute a recipe. I can execute a recipe. Yeah, good. Okay. So it's a difficult one to do over the life of a series, and I don't know, he's just like shooting, I know so much of his success is getting into the paint, finishing in the paint, drawing fouls, but he shooting 40% from the floor just over 40 42% on twos. That's just not going to cut it. He had his best game scoring wise was game one. I mean, since then the scoring has gone down in every game. He's only averaging a heavier up right now, 20.5 points, a night in the series. Is that nearly 11 assists, and it's funny, like his scoring is going down, but his assists are going up in every game, and I think Minnesota will take that, frankly. I think they will because I think that they're betting over the long term. It's still a better strategy for them if it's not. Basically owning the paint. Hey guys, open floor here. We want to share with you another podcast. We think you'll like. On the against the rules podcast, bestselling author Michael Lewis, yes, that's the Michael Lewis, who wrote Moneyball and the blind side, takes a hard look at what's happened to fairness in American life. He's explored referees and coaches and now he's taking on a new group, experts. When people think of experts, they think of in your face, know it all. But finding an expert can be like searching for a needle in a haystack because while experts are getting better and better, we are getting less willing to hear what they have to say. Michael ventures to the depths of the sea, meeting an oceanographer who has saved countless lives, but the survivors don't even know his name. He looks at our healthcare system and learns how a medical biller saved hospitals millions of dollars, once someone bothered to notice her, and he sits down with baseball statistician, Bill James, and here's how his analysis transformed not only our understanding of baseball, but of the world, against the rules will leave you thinking differently about the experts in our society. Listen to against the rules wherever you get podcasts. Betrayal.
"bill james" Discussed on Against the Rules with Michael Lewis
"More than now that I did that. Baseball had been a small part of the world in which Bill James might seek understanding. It was that for him when he was 11 years old. It was still that for him after 70. Every human being on earth is trying to figure out how the world works all the time. And the moment you're born, you're pitched into this search for understanding of the world. And that effort to understand the world, dominates your life every day. It's more pervasive than the need for food because once you eat, you don't care about that. It's more pervasive than the desire for sex. It's there all the time. You're always trying to figure out the world. But the world is vastly more complicated than the human mind. So you can never do it. So in that environment where everybody is trying all the time to figure out the world, but you can't do it. What happens? People latch on to explanations for things that seem to work. Bill James created a movement. That movement has replaced one expert with another. But the point of the movement wasn't simply to replace the expert. The point was to change the spirit in which the expert operates. To unsettle their explanations. Whenever I've asked what's going to happen, I always want answer although sometimes I now remember not to. I always want to answer, how can you possibly be stupid enough to ask that question? I don't know what's going to happen, I did. It's just not the nature of the world. But is the nature of people that most of them will answer the question even if they don't know the answer? Yes. A boy wanders into a small and seemingly orderly universe. A universe that can be understood. A universe in which no one's mother has to die. A universe in which the experts seem to know everything there is to know. The young man teaches us that much of what the experts think they know is wrong. That lesson is hard enough to absorb. But there was a bigger.
"bill james" Discussed on Against the Rules with Michael Lewis
"It. Then one day Bill James got a phone call. From the agent of a major league player entering arbitration. Arbitration is a bizarre process in baseball. The player and the team appear before a panel of three judges to argue about his next year's salary. You get into an arbitration case, what's the arbitrator want to know? This side says this player is really good and the size says he's not so good. This side says he's comparable to this set of players. But what are the facts here? The player, in this case, a pitcher needed an expert to help him counteract his team's argument that he was worse than he claimed. His one loss record was 9 and 16, but his offense is support had been very poor. In other words, my pitcher only seems to suck because your team sucks. And we introduced an exhibit showing that if his offensive support had been normal, his one loss record probably been about 14 and 11. It wasn't necessarily the pitcher's fault that his team had lost. Any more than it was necessarily a mother's fault that her kids had turned out badly. To evaluate any picture or any mom, you had to think some more about it. Bill James next exhibit in the pitcher's defense made the argument that his one loss record was simply a byproduct of the number of runs his team scored while he was pitching, and the number of runs they allowed. Space now, right? Something everybody knows, but at the time there's like, oh, so that they had no response to that at all. So it's kind of great. It's kind of great that they're ignorance is actually honest. They actually, they aren't thinking the other side. The people who are running the baseball team actually aren't thinking. That's right. They work. But why weren't they thinking Michael? They weren't thinking because they thought they knew. That's what destroys me and all of us have keeps us from doing things we could do is thinking that we know things that we don't actually know. This total outsider, who is just trying to understand some little corner of the universe. Was creating smarter ways to value athletes. Just as athletes were becoming seriously valuable. Just as baseball salaries were going from tens of thousands of dollars to millions of dollars. The insiders still ignored Bill James, but the outsiders loved it. And in 1982, a real publisher offered him a book contract. Baseball is drowning in records, and people think about them and talk about them and write about the great deal. Why doesn't anybody use them? I really don't know. But that in essence is what I am about here. Bill was now publishing without a photocopier or Staples. His audience grew from thousands to hundreds of thousands, all baseball outsiders. He saw no sign that anyone inside a major league front office was listening to what he was saying. Until these guys came along. Why of all this might do it? Hello to his calling for it. He's under it. The athletics have won the west. The Oakland a's people inside their front office had been reading Bill James without telling anyone. They didn't have as much money as the other teams, yet they won more games. I went to see the team to try to figure out how they did it. The answer was simply that they were taking Bill James thinking out onto the field. The book I wrote about the Moneyball wasn't just about baseball. It was about expertise. How this new knowledge enabled you to run circles around the rest of baseball. He gets on base a lot. Rocco, do I care if it's a walker hit? Pete? You do not. I do not. My book popularized would Bill James had led the Oakland a's to do. Then Brad Pitt popularized the book by making a movie out of it..
"bill james" Discussed on Dual Threat with Ryen Russillo
"The subject next week? Yeah, okay. As somebody who's made a living in sports, I didn't know that people don't like to change their minds. We know that in or out of sports. And essentially what's been proven here is that a lot of these people were right, right? We should have passed more in football. We shouldn't have been running the football all the time. And basketball we should have been taking more threes. There are little things that I can push back on, but like the nerds won. The nerds won. Yes? So does James have any like, you know, you kind of brought it to the forefront a little bit. I think maybe you made it, I didn't say a little bit. You made it mainstream. You know, for those of us that were in sports, we're already in it, but you made it mainstream and like, okay, a newer way of doing things. How come that hasn't happened then in other parts of life as much? It has happened in other parts of life. Let's come back to Bill James because there's something I want to say about it. But Nate silver wanders out of baseball and transforms political forecasting. It's no longer an 8 fat white guys who happened to have gone to a diner in Iowa, telling you who's going to be president of the United States. It's like someone using data to make better forecasts about what public opinion actually is. And it's not perfect. It's like the baseball forecasting is not perfect. It's just better. Because you finally got some data that you're using to make these projections. That kind of thing. I think of the whole data science revolution as being an extension of.
"bill james" Discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
"Ben how are you? Doing well. Good. We are also joined by other bands. Ben Clements, Ben, how are you? Doing well also. I'm so glad to hear that. It's a big day. Big day. Huge you guys. Everyone's been waiting. The questions have been pouring in. When and where is the minor league free agent draft? Well, here it is. It's in your feeds right now. You are currently listening to it. The 9th annual effectively wild minor league free agent draft. Wow. When I fire most story traditions, yes, and then this will be your first minor league for agent draft. How are you feeling? A little nervous. I mean, not nervous, 'cause it's a minor league free agent draft, but a little nervous. It's an institution. It is a podcast institution. So you should be nervous. I'm nervous. We're all nervous. This means something. This has huge stakes, bragging rights. Look, I just would like to say the following, which is that I made a compelling case for Kuzma when we did this last year and you just happened to scoop me and I would like to say, I don't think you had the conviction increased month that I did. But you got to reap the rewards and this after I generously gave you the first overall pick allow for you to take faulty. So wow. So I drafted him, but you wanted him more. So really you deserve that playing time. Yeah, I mean, I remember saying, I think there is a sneaky path for him here to be a starter even though the padre's rotation is stacked because of injury history, and who was right. I was right. Me. Yep, I evidently had more faith in him because I drafted him before you did. So we'll get to the results of last year's Mario week for age and draft and just a moment, a little bit of banter first on our last episode. We had said that we might talk a little bit about the specifics of MLB's proposal to the Players Association because those had not yet come out when we were recording. As it turns out, I don't know that they're all that illuminating or in lightning. Impression at the time was that this was not an offer that moved the needle much. And that still seems to be the case even though we know about a few of the specifics here. So Ben, I don't know if anything in particular about what was reported caught your eye here, but it seems like this is just a way to click the can down the road, I guess, just to do something for the sake of doing something and I guess put pressure on the Players Association to essentially negotiate against themselves. Yeah, I think if you told me that prospects who played a full year and got rookie of the year votes would give teams extra draft picks and asked me what that would do for when prospects got called up. I don't really know if I think it would get them called up earlier or later. So it seems to me like it's just window dressing like it's something fancy that they can do and people will talk about, but I don't know. It doesn't really seem like actually an economic proposal so much as here's an interesting different way we could do things. Yeah, I have said several times on this podcast that I think that we deal perhaps too much in incentives when it comes to things like service time manipulation and trying to provide disincentives to service time manipulation and it strikes me always as the action of people who don't really want to do anything about it at all. I understand that crafting rules that address every edge case to make sure that prospects are promoted when they're ready has some difficulty to it that takes some doing, but like just write a rule that says you can't manipulate service time and at least have the grievance process address that directly rather than trying to carrot and stick your way through this, you know, it's just like embrace regulation, it's everyone's favorite thing. Yeah, and it included universal DH, of course, and there was 14 team playoffs, of course, and there was potentially an international draft, shoehorned in here, which was very taxes going up or the CBT rather going up from 210 million to a whopping 214 million which only 5% slower than if the inflation rate exactly. It's actually lower than it was in effect. Real dollars. So yeah, doesn't seem like this is going to get a deal done. I doubt anyone expected it to. But they did something. So they ended their 42 days of doing nothing. They have technically done something. And so now I guess the Players Association has to decide if they want to budge because the owners appear pretty intractable here. So maybe it's just going to be another game of chicken for a while and we'll see if there will be an immediate counter proposal or if they just sort of stand pat and say make us a real offer. Yeah, I did enjoy that Gigi Cooper at baseball America sort of dignified the prospect portion of this with some actual analysis and he found what I think we could all into it, which is that this isn't the top 100 prospect patina that was put on that piece of this is sort of unnecessary because typically the guys who are getting rookie of the year votes and MVP votes in Cy Young votes are guys who were ranked prospects anyway, who were top 100 guys introducing the potential rigmarole and conflicts of that process seems completely unnecessary and not really pointed at trying to alleviate service time manipulation at all. I also will say, I think there are a lot of public facing prospect writers who do a lot of really, really good work. And have an accurate understanding of who the guys are who are going to contribute the most to their big league teams. And I also don't think it's really appropriate for those folks to be involved in the process to this degree. So quit outsourcing your assessments MLB seems a little bit, I don't know why that's been a trend amongst the proposals that we've heard about so far, but I'd like it to stop, please. Yeah, I guess they largely dissolve the scouting bureau. So I don't know how you would do that. You can't use teams internal ratings really. So maybe you just shouldn't do that at all. But that was an interesting wrinkle. I mean, it's kind of a waste of time to dive deep into every point of every proposal because they're all just sort of markers along the road that hopefully will eventually lead to some sort of deal that probably won't really resemble the proceeding proposals. And all of those specifics. Yeah. More to come. We hope. All right, so a couple other non labor related things that we wanted to address. There's a new big Bill James study out on Bill James's website. Bill James online and it reaches an interesting conclusion and Bill seems pretty pumped about it. He tweeted about it and asked people to share it. And I think it reaches an interesting conclusion, although I don't totally know if I buy the magnitude of the effect. So essentially, he did some research into Hall of Fame elections and he found that players who jumped from team to team may reduce their chances of getting into the hull by 50% or even more compared to a similar player who stays with one team. And he didn't do this just solely looking at one team career players because there aren't all that many of them really, but he kind of quantified how much of a team switcher you are. Did you go to a ton of teams? Did you play for one for most of your career? And he found that it makes a huge difference. He said, if we take all of the one team players in history, they have 44% more Hall of Fame selections within the group than would be expected based on those players performance numbers. He also concluded that a player is more than twice as likely to be selected to the hull if he spent most of his career with one team than if he moved from team to team, at least within a certain threshold or below a certain threshold of value once you get up into the upper tiers then it may not actually matter. But if you're kind of on the border, then a single team player seems to be more likely to get in..
"bill james" Discussed on Based On a True Story
"This philosophy so it's still a cool story to me, but not quite the drama of that scene in Cleveland. I think that's unlikely to have been how it went. It's a movie. They do have to make it fun to watch and sometimes meetings aren't always fun to watch. Exactly. Yeah, and that takes me back to when I first heard the movie was coming. I was like, wow, how are they going to make a movie out of this? Because it really is, guys, sitting around in chairs, you know, on the phone and watching games, and I thought that I really liked the movie, setting aside the extent to which it was accurate or not. I really liked it. And I think the people that wrote the movie and produced it did a good job of using drama to kind of fill in fill in the blanks and what otherwise would have been somewhat of a boring boring narrative. And that's a good example. It's meetings about numbers. That sounds like a real fascinating thing to watch. Yeah, I know. And the people that made the movie are very talented because it was a really good movie. And using that raw material to create a really good movie takes a lot of talent. Yeah. Well, speaking of the numbers, the way that the movie shows explains this is that baseball is historically used a lot of different factors to find their players at and a lot of them are overlooked for a variety of reasons, scouts think different players have flaws and things. But then it mentions Bill James that you had talked about saying that he cut through all of those intangible things to focus on the numbers that using math to build up the team. And according to the movie, it mentions basically boiling all the numbers down all the stats that they track boiling it all down to a single number. The on base percentage is what the movie mentions. Did the movie do a good job explaining saber metrics and the method of using mathematics to analyze the players? I think the movie did an incredibly good job of taking saber metrics and making it into something that a movie could focus on. Which again was a huge, huge task, and they did it. They pulled it off. In terms of actually being accurate, I don't think I don't think that it was. Save our metrics is and I'm not, I'm not steeped in saber metrics myself. But I know enough to know that it's a real science, very, very intelligent people from PhDs from Berkeley, MIT dedicate their entire professional lives to crunching these numbers and building out spreadsheets and so it's a really it's a real science really complicated deep science and on base percentage definitely is an example, one example, among others of a stat that Bill James in the saber metrics community identified as being underappreciated. And it makes sense when you think about it. If you get a base hit and a line drive to center and you go to first base, that's exciting. But if you get a walk, you're still on first base. It's the same thing. And oftentimes that hit was on the first pitch whereas a walk would have been 6 pitches. And the attrition with the pitcher in the aggregate as all of your players get there at bats, the additional pitches can really matter. So having a good eye and getting a walk and having a high on base percentage.
"bill james" Discussed on JustATouchof_J
"Is coming at. You put blau gas work. You know you took this is just coming action kitchen down hale digital think i forgot to pray for your nil. I can never do that. This is just such a j. baby. You'll know he's rice. Listen by your hair. Color is let me get down. You gay the deer heavenly father accompany you right now and that ass for you to please allow your word that i just put out. The pieces will to be able to resignation inside each and everyone in the individuals that hurt it. Restored our solar. God allowed him to see what it is trying to show him. Do this message allow lunacy that they have everything that they need on the inside of him and that you'll be there for okay. He'll going to be there for you. He loves you all right. He's gonna restore. He's going to help you in. Jesus name i pray. Just don't be afraid right. We love you guys. Thank you for waking up. Thank you for blessing us. Then he is. Allow me to go ahead and put your word out the pieces phone. Just thank you restore Give him peace and everything that it is that they need that comfort as they're walking through life in jesus name i pray i love you guys. So your what shall at they. Don't listen ray. So remember when i told you i was going to give you all you know. A little chip denies. He came out with his new album. And it was definitely thoroughly wise. But i decided to do a throwback thing form. Yeah i wanted to go back. you know. Everybody loves coming out with all this new stuff. You know what this is. Just it's such a g man and that'll put this out the pieces for your saying you know what. Let me go ahead. throw this thing back. I want you all to check it out. Listen i is certain ex- this is just. It's got this thing beckwith truth which all want me to say i gala give a shout. Some men whole georgia's thing was calmed. Man my way me now return definitely no turn back. This is what makes this is what i am q. Stop create paul. Okay start up. John to donate me. Take the money out. See closed bought. Try closer pitcher bonus six money colon chicken honey basket in critically acclaimed bits up. Process went to best story pampering myself. Bitcoin commentators clock watcher. My paper quite impressive. Most of the best essence stand pork spending more to screen bill james but it seems you back to see me. Jail was your last like your favorite and see still. Make us amine cast. I ran back to the process. But you still want to hate. My guess possible stopped that stop by chess. Top shorthand stewart. Now talk to like this border like got yourself your cell. He south time behind enemy. I've got monitor. Hope you hope you all people say you take what i want brought home and i know your is one us eddie eddie he. Oh my gosh like at this at the. We know your score going north. Tell this A i don't know what i'm doing. What's.
"bill james" Discussed on JustATouchof_J
"Is coming at. You put blau gas work. You know you took. This is just coming action. Kitchen down tentative heo dijana think. I forgot to pray for your nil. I can never do that. This is just such a j. baby. You'll know he's rice. Listen by your hair. Color is let me get down. You may the dear heavenly father accompany you right now and that ass for you to please allow your word that i just put out. The pieces will to be able to resignation inside each and everyone in the individuals that hurt it. Restored our solar. God allowed him to see what it is trying to show him. Do this message allow lunacy that they have everything that they need on the inside of him and that you'll be there for okay. Yoga's going to be there for you. He loves you all right. He's gonna restore you going help you. In jesus name i pray. Just don't be afraid right. We love you guys. Thank you for waking up. Thank you for blessing us. Then he is. Allow me to go ahead and put your word out the pieces phone. Just thank you restore Give him peace and everything that it is that they need that comfort as they're walking through life in jesus name i pray i love you guys. So your what shall at they. Don't listen ray. So remember when i told you i was going to give you all you know. A little chip denies. He came out with his new album and it was definitely thoroughly wise. I decided to do a throwback thing form. Yeah i wanted to go back you know. Everybody loves coming out with all this new stuff. You know what this is. Just it's such a g man and that'll put this out the pieces for your saying you know what. Let me go ahead. throw this thing back. I want you all to check it out. Listen i is certainly this is just. It's jay got this thing. Beckwith truth which all want me to say i gala. Give a shout. Some men whole georgia's thing was calmed. Man my way me now return definitely no turn back. This is what makes this is what i am q. Stop create paul. Okay start up. John to donate me. Take the money out. See closed bought. Try closer pitcher bonus six money colon chicken honey britches basket in critically acclaimed bits up. Went to best story pampering myself. Bitcoin commentators clock watcher. My paper quite impressive. Most of the best essence stand pork spending more to screen bill james but it seems you back to see me. Jail was your last like your favorite and see still make us mean cast. I ran back to the process. But you still want to hate kasichs. Jeff stopped that stop by chess. Top shorthand stewart. Now talk to like this border like got yourself your cell. He south time behind enemy. I've got monitor. Hope you hope you all people say you take what i want brought home and i know your foot is one us eddie eddie he. Oh my gosh like at this at the we know your no score. Norway didn't tell you this is just A i don't know what i'm doing. What's.
"bill james" Discussed on JustATouchof_J
"Is coming at. You put blau gas work. You know you took. This is just coming action. Kitchen down tentative heo dijana think. I forgot to pray for your nil. I can never do that. This is just such a baby. You'll know he's rice. Listen by your hair. Color is let me get down. You gay the deer heavenly father accompany you right now and that ass for you to please allow your word that i just put out. The pieces will to be able to resignation inside each and everyone in the individuals that hurt it. Restored our solar. God allowed him to see what it is trying to show him. Do this message allow lunacy that they have everything that they need on the inside of him and that you'll be there for okay. Yoga's going to be there for you. He loves you all right. He's gonna restore you going to help you. In jesus name i pray. Just don't be afraid night. We love you guys. Thank you for waking up. Thank you for blessing us. Then he is. Allow me to go ahead and put your word out the pieces phone. Just thank you restore Give him peace and everything that it is that they need that comfort as they're walking through life in jesus name i pray i love you guys. So your what shall at they. Don't listen ray. So remember when i told you i was going to give you all you know. A little chip denies. He came out with his new album and it was definitely thoroughly wise. I decided to do a throwback thing form. Yeah i wanted to go back you know. Everybody loves coming out with all this new stuff. You know what this is. Just it's such a g man and that'll put this out the pieces for your saying you know what. Let me go ahead. throw this thing back. I want you all to check it out. Listen i is certain ex- this is just it's jay. Got this thing beckwith. Truth which all want me to say i gala give a shout. Some men whole georgia's thing was calmed man in way me. Now return rosen deaf. No turning back this is what makes this is what i am q. Stop create paul. Okay up john to donate me. Take the money out. See closed bought. Try closer pitcher bonus six money colon chicken honey britches basket in critically acclaimed bits up. Went to best story pampering myself. Bitcoin commentators clock watcher. My paper quite impressive. Most of the best essence stand pork spending more to screen bill james but it seems you back to see me. Jail was your last like your favorite and see still make us mean cast. I ran the to the process. But you still want to hate. My guess possible. Stewart stopped that stop by chess. Top shorthand stewart. Now talk want to like this border like got yourself your cell. He south time behind enemy. I've got monitor. Hope you hope you all people say you take what i want solve brought home and i know your is one us. Eddie eddie he oh my gosh like at this at the know your no score. Norway didn't tell you this is just such a. i don't know what i'm doing. What's.
Daryl Morey on the Sports Analytics Revolution
"So me pawing at this sad window like a hidden aside daryl. I do want to explain the monster. You've created here because the mit sloan sports analytics conference is very well known inside our industry but it is far less stone outside of it. And you and your co founder. Jessica gelman got it going fifteen years ago. Basically in the spirit of moneyball and the spirit of what someone like bill. James did in exploiting data defined undervalued players and strategies and every year you bring together researchers and sacred magicians and wants but now you also get all of these powerbrokers to somehow agreed to be on panels. And i'm talking about owners and athletes and coaches and executives and world leaders like barack obama who was the keynote speaker. One year recently. So i'm just curious first off what sort of thing is stuck in your mind after you wrapped up the conference. Last week. I mean this year. I jumped on the nfc panel actually learned a lot because we had the like the head of mba. Top shots ahead of so rare mark. Cuban who has more More free time than than us to to focus on this and i think teams are obviously the. Nba is out front at the sports top shop. But i think it's just the start of a nba teams exploiting what crypto can do for them as well. It's very confusing to people but I think everyone knows what a barcode as. So if you could have put a barcode on literally anything and no one could copy it. And they can always always know and look up that it's your thing that's been bar coded and that's really all it is you. Can you can really. Nf t anything. The certification estimate The actual item. Nf t could be a combination of physical and digital.
Minor League Baseball Joins MLB in Indefinite Suspension Amid Coronavirus
"Yesterday we had met Minor League baseball pushing back on the idea that their season has been cancelled to the degree that the organization put out a statement last night But you and I know. The current situation is so fragile and I was thinking back to March when There were initial reports out of London. The London series between the cardinals and cubs who is going to be cancelled and Major League? Baseball push back on that and said now we haven't officially cancelled it and then that came and then earlier this week Bob Nightingale USA Today at a story saying looks like the hall of Fame Induction Ceremonies is going to be cancelled and there was pushback and it was like now. We haven't officially cancelled that yet. Then yesterday we got word yes. It is officially postponed And I feel that way about the minor league season that eventually will probably hear that announcement because the fact is is that on major league. Baseball is list of priorities. It's far down the list and you would expect as they try to make a push to have some sort of a major league season or tournament or whatever form it would take that you know. This is on the back burner. What do you think it's It's one of those things that in talking to agents executives people like that for the last couple of months. It's just been a foregone conclusion that it's gone from very unlikely that there will be a minor league season two in the last few weeks. It's been like Oh there's a zero percents yet. It's not going to happen but I guess there just hasn't been the You know the formal announcement of anything yet and antics earnings of hacking with the draft. Were it's been talked about for of pray about a month now that it's going to be a certain day. Certain around ninety percent. Sure it just hasn't been formally announced yet and on the minor league side it just you know it sounds like there's going to be some version of you get thirty to fifty maybe sixty players Inside your bubble to be part of the season and trying to do that for you know a ball in Aa in all these different levels when there's not that much money to be made and they don't have an agreement there's just like so many different things go on like you're saying it's so far down. Melissa's thanks to try to get done to have like a bio dome in Rome Georgia or something. It just sorta seems silly that they would. That would be something. Anybody would even try to
James Bond Sequel ‘No Time to Die’ Postponed Due to Coronavirus Outbreak
"The coronavirus impacting of all things the box office it's because the new James farm bill James Bond film to be delayed and we will get to see the upcoming twenty fifth James Bond movie until November No time to die was scheduled for an early April release but with thousands of Peter still closed in China Japan South Korea and Italy because of coronavirus MGM universal in the film's producers say quote that after careful consideration and thorough evaluation of the global theatrical market place the release of No time to die will be postponed until November twenty twenty it's the first major Hollywood movie delay as corona virus spreads around the globe Jason agents and
Gordon Hayward of Boston Celtics booed heavily by Utah Jazz fans in homecoming
"That about any player who really has ever played the sport before. So LeBron is certainly not replaceable. But are baseball players. This was a funny story of me. I don't know if you guys saw this Bill James who
California lawmakers send strict 'net neutrality' laws to governor
"Lawmakers in California are sending news sending new net neutrality rules to governor Jerry Brown's desk for his signature after they passed a Bill yesterday to prevent internet service providers from favoring certain websites over others NPR's James, Dubec reports, advocates. Say they're the strongest net neutrality protections in the country. Democrats Scott Weiner who co, wrote the Bill said net neutrality. Is important for, activists and, small businesses vis Isabelle a level playing field an, internet, where we as individuals against the side where we go on the internet. The measure stops internet providers like Comcast in AT and t. from, blocking slowing, down or speeding up access to certain websites but, the industry called the Bill heavy-handed. Saying the internet needs one national policy instead of state-by-state approaches California Democrats portrayed the legislation As. A rebuke of President Trump earlier this year the FCC repealed. Net neutrality rules imposed under the Obama administration California's governor hasn't said if you'll sign the Bill
New Jersey averts government shutdown with last-minute budget
"From npr news in washington i'm dave mattingly president trump is expected to spend much of this week narrowing potential candidates to fill retiring justice anthony kennedy seat on the us supreme court the president says he'll announce his choice a week from today new jersey's government remains open this morning as joe hernandez with member station whyy reports the governor signed a budget deal yesterday after a lastminute agreement with state lawmakers new jersey governor phil murphy and democratic state legislators reached a last minute budget deal over the weekend it means the state narrowly avoided a government shutdown which would have been its second in two years republicans criticized the deal though for raising taxes even higher in an already high tax state lebron james is becoming a los angeles laker has kyle stokes with member station k pcc reports james is leaving the nba's cleveland cavaliers after agreeing to a four four year contract with l a worth one hundred fifty four million dollars for years some la laker fans had mixed feelings about lebron success they were inclined to stick up for their favorite player legendary laker kobe bryant now the lakers are coming off their fifth straight losing season fans of hoped a big free agent signing could reverse the team's fortunes and james fits the bill james one one nba title with cleveland and two with miami i'm dave mattingly in washington and this is morning edition at wnyc in new york at five twenty good morning i'm kerry nolan new data indicates that new york city government chose not to.