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"biden warren zander" Discussed on The Forecast with Harry Enten

The Forecast with Harry Enten

11:09 min | 1 year ago

"biden warren zander" Discussed on The Forecast with Harry Enten

"Project Uh Good job is listeners. In welcome to this bonus episode of the forecast I'm of course Harry Joseph Strasbourg Genton. Well folks if you thought. The Democratic primary field wasn't crowded enough billionaire businessman. Michael Bloomberg is on the case at. They're saying in March that he wouldn't run for president. The former New York York City mayor is apparently backtracking and preparing a run for twenty twenty bid according to a spokesman Bloomberg is expected to file the necessary paperwork to get on the Democratic primary ballot in in Alabama by the Friday deadline. Kate is not able to join us but we do have John Avalon with us by phone. John what's your first thought Ari. Well we're both New Yorkers. We know that Mike Bloomberg is flirted with running with the presidency. Probably a half dozen times over the past decade. This had been rumored There was a sense that he was dissatisfied with his decision. Not to get in. He saw Tom Star. Get on the ballot. Make the debate stage and I think it dovetails tails with something that you and I have discussed Kate. which is there may be a slot open for the Biden backup Centrist candidate who can win a general If Biden were to say there has been no major catastrophic flame out for Biden but other centrist candidates have really failed to rise. And so you see that top tier You know looking like Biden Warren Zander's And so a lot of national DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN CONCERNED WAR Warren Sanders could lose to donald trump and Buddha judges just an unknown quantity. This is really Bloomberg leaving an option open By making sure he's on the ballot in the first State Alabama. This is not an officially getting in yet. It's keeping options open. And he's got fifty billion dollars to do that with so you shouldn't count them out no matter what your politics yeah. I think that's right. You know he hasn't gotten the race yet. He's merely just filing again in Alabama. Obviously the New Hampshire. I'm sure that lines coming up soon. And that I think will be a truer test right eventually. You either have to you know what or get off the pot and right now he's on that pot But we'll see whether or not he actually stays on it or gets off but I look I. I think there's a real question. I have John which is how much of this Bloomberg thing. And obviously there's there's been a media spike of interest with this. How much of this is merely the New York City media knowing Michael Bloomberg? He was the mayor here obviously for over a decade. How much is this? Just him being being in the back yard and therefore thinking highly of him versus sort of what the actual polls in the data says. I we know that. The Democratic Party is evenly evenly SPLIT BETWEEN MODERATES FLASH CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS LUSH very liberal Michael Bloomberg Certainly the centrist record in the context of New York City politics But the left's anger it even the notion he might get in a little odd given the fact that he's been the biggest funder for a lot of liberal causes particularly gun reform and climate change. I think the big question is Joe Biden who obviously occupies the lane. He would run in Has It demonstrated ability today to win over African Americans and working class voters. Mike Bloomberg's ability to do that is untested unknown and probably probably shouldn't be assumed to be an easy path. He is a billionaire from New York City then again so is Donald Trump and he successfully run as a conservative populist but the sheer volume of money if Mike Bloomberg gets in he and his team say they're going to spend a billion To to to be competitive in a primary in anything anything beyond that in a general so I don't think you can you can count them out And for those centrist and moderate and conservative Democrats. He'd be an appealing candidate. Can You bring the other broader coalition totally unknown. It's going to be a question of him. His record symptomless charismatic. You know ground Game politician amount of money can achieve almost anything you know. Let me lay out the skeptical case for Michael Bloomberg which I've been doing for a while now and and obviously if you can't tell by my accent a New Yorker through in through but here's what I look which is totally unforgivable. Well you know. We all have our pluses and minuses. And that's when I plus here's the deal the deal to me as you look at the polling data and you look at it before you know Bloomberg initially said in March that he wasn't going to run where was he pulling in the national polls he was pulling the low single digits not quite one percent but to three percent regularly. You look in Iowa. What did you see the final poll that was taken there by? CNN essentially showed that his unfavorable rating was about ten points higher than his favorable rating among likely democratic caucus focus cars and then John. I think you had really really well. Ideologically Biden and Bloomberg running pretty much in that same lane right that sort of moderate to conservative Democrat but of course ideology is not just the is not the only way in which voters make up their mind. You also have to look demographically and you. Essentially we're saying especially among African American voters who are Joe Biden's base. He's getting regularly forty percent plus of that vote. How in the Devil's head is Michael? Michael Bloomberg who basically had such a poor relationship with African Americans by the end of his term that Bill de Blasio. Who last I checked was not the greatest politician? The world was able to get into the mayor's mansion because of his stance on stop and Frisk and Michael Bloomberg Sour relationship with African Americans. I just don't see it but maybe the money that he spent do it. Where where am I going wrong here? I think that is the big challenge. And how much of the money. And how much of a general collection argument can compensate. This has a degree of yellow to it. You only live once. Bloomberg's wanted to be president. He's looked running before he studied running as an an independent aggressively. Not just in two thousand sixteen but also in two thousand twelve and concluded that he couldn't win both because of the House of Representatives they might act as a spoiler her and and ended up electing Donald Trump who he disdains Somebody by the way you know who's to to Donald Trump's grady rotation worth many multiples whatever Donald Donald trump might as well. And that is that is true too but I didn't think it needed to be said that said Look you know he is. He is not a charismatic campaigner. He is not a great word or he's someone who's deeply respected by a lot of influential folks and he may he played better Nationally than for example with the African American community in New York towards the end of his term. Although I think he's morality looks pretty good review. Mary's probably significantly more popular than build a New York City. Right now for example But these are among the many challenges. He's facing What he's what he's tapping into you too? Though is I think a at the very least a donor class concern among Democrats That if Biden flames out if there's an unexpected event which could very well happen at any debate folks keeping an eye out for this despite his buoyancy in the polls that a a Bernie Sanders or an Elizabeth Warren could lose against Donald Trump. 'cause they're too far left and in Bloomberg's own spoke you know AIDS words He Views Donald Trump as an existential threat to the republic. Yeah I think you one thing. I think you pointed out so importantly there was. This is a donor class thing. In my opinion it's not necessarily a voter thing Biden Biden still holding it around thirty percent. Actually he's obviously weaker in Iowa and so there's a case to be made there though I'm not quite sure why might Bloomberg would be particularly strong in Iowa But I I think it's a donor class thing and not necessarily voted thing when you look at the polls two thirds or upwards some polls of eighty percent of Democratic primary voters say that that they are satisfied with their choices. And so I'm just I you know I get it you know. He's wanted to run for forever. You said Yolo. Look he's in his upper seventies. He's actually slightly older than Joe Biden. And this is pretty much it but you know someone who's such a data analytics Guy Michael Bloomberg this strikes me as almost an anti data analytics sort of move. Maybe you know maybe I'll be proven wrong. I don't know I don't think any of us have any ability to guess what the impact of the kind of money he's willing to spend might be the only the close analog. We've seen the cycle of courses. Tom Style with two years of TV ads. WHO qualified for debate stage when senators and governors couldn't do it and star has no governing record Unlike Mike Bloomberg who has quite a successful governing record albeit as mayor of New York City but for twelve years and and another core aspect of of his credibility among certain class lots of Democrats and you saw notably he reached Gina Raimondo. governor of Rhode Island very well respected amongst centrist Democrats who Value fiscal. Responsibility is is that that he's seen as a guy who's fiscally responsible And you know can can take some of the arguments you hear. Donald Trump's supporters make he's a businessman. No one you can buy them Therefore be good for the economy. When I think a lot of folks are saying good you know if if if even if Elizabeth Warren to win it it is possible that her policies would set off a recession which would be very bad for Democrats down ballot? It's going to be a question about whether there becomes an opening because of an unexpected could event And the Center needs a new candidate rally around and the x factor of literally a billion dollars being spent. And what can that do to build support maybe nothing. Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump's dramatically and it didn't matter on the other hand it it it we just haven't seen anything like this in a primary let alone. The general continues. Yeah I think you're right. It is an insurance policy. And I think you sort of hit it. As well with the fact that Michael Bloomberg for all his social policies that may be the left. You know say gun. Control trolls say climate. Change is the more fiscally moderate candidate and I think that's the type of thing That disturbs Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders and his also the reason why Michael Bloomberg biggest disturbed by Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. Well John we're going to have to leave it there. So that's it for now but I thank you for joining me via the phone on your a beautiful beautiful man. I never wanted to forget that way about you. Area Buddy thank you and thank you for listening. Everybody tweet us how you think Bloomberg might impact the twenty twenty race. I'm of course on twitter at forecast. Renton and my colleague John Avalon at John Avalon. And please remember to subscribe on Apple. PODCAST in Stitcher Google. PODCAST spotify or your favorite podcast APP. Wire there leave us a rating or.

Michael Bloomberg qualifies for Democratic primary ballot in Alabama

The Forecast with Harry Enten

03:55 min | 1 year ago

Michael Bloomberg qualifies for Democratic primary ballot in Alabama

"Well folks if you thought. The Democratic primary field wasn't crowded enough billionaire businessman. Michael Bloomberg is on the case at. They're saying in March that he wouldn't run for president. The former New York York City mayor is apparently backtracking and preparing a run for twenty twenty bid according to a spokesman Bloomberg is expected to file the necessary paperwork to get on the Democratic primary ballot in in Alabama by the Friday deadline. Kate is not able to join us but we do have John Avalon with us by phone. John what's your first thought Ari. Well we're both New Yorkers. We know that Mike Bloomberg is flirted with running with the presidency. Probably a half dozen times over the past decade. This had been rumored There was a sense that he was dissatisfied with his decision. Not to get in. He saw Tom Star. Get on the ballot. Make the debate stage and I think it dovetails tails with something that you and I have discussed Kate. which is there may be a slot open for the Biden backup Centrist candidate who can win a general If Biden were to say there has been no major catastrophic flame out for Biden but other centrist candidates have really failed to rise. And so you see that top tier You know looking like Biden Warren Zander's And so a lot of national DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN CONCERNED WAR Warren Sanders could lose to donald trump and Buddha judges just an unknown quantity. This is really Bloomberg leaving an option open By making sure he's on the ballot in the first State Alabama. This is not an officially getting in yet. It's keeping options open. And he's got fifty billion dollars to do that with so you shouldn't count them out no matter what your politics yeah. I think that's right. You know he hasn't gotten the race yet. He's merely just filing again in Alabama. Obviously the New Hampshire. I'm sure that lines coming up soon. And that I think will be a truer test right eventually. You either have to you know what or get off the pot and right now he's on that pot But we'll see whether or not he actually stays on it or gets off but I look I. I think there's a real question. I have John which is how much of this Bloomberg thing. And obviously there's there's been a media spike of interest with this. How much of this is merely the New York City media knowing Michael Bloomberg? He was the mayor here obviously for over a decade. How much is this? Just him being being in the back yard and therefore thinking highly of him versus sort of what the actual polls in the data says. I we know that. The Democratic Party is evenly evenly SPLIT BETWEEN MODERATES FLASH CONSERVATIVES AND LIBERALS LUSH very liberal Michael Bloomberg Certainly the centrist record in the context of New York City politics But the left's anger it even the notion he might get in a little odd given the fact that he's been the biggest funder for a lot of liberal causes particularly gun reform and climate change. I think the big question is Joe Biden who obviously occupies the lane. He would run in Has It demonstrated ability today to win over African Americans and working class voters. Mike Bloomberg's ability to do that is untested unknown and probably probably shouldn't be assumed to be an easy path. He is a billionaire from New York City then again so is Donald Trump and he successfully run as a conservative populist but the sheer volume of money if Mike Bloomberg gets in he and his team say they're going to spend a billion To to to be competitive in a primary in anything anything beyond that in a general so I don't think you can you can count them out And for those centrist and moderate and conservative Democrats. He'd be an appealing candidate. Can You bring the other broader coalition totally unknown. It's going to be a question of him. His record symptomless charismatic. You know ground Game politician amount of money can achieve almost anything

Michael Bloomberg Bloomberg Joe Biden Warren Sanders Biden Warren Zander New York City Alabama New York York Donald Trump John Avalon Kate Democratic Party New Hampshire President Trump Twenty Twenty John Tom Star