20 Burst results for "Betsey Stevenson"

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

07:50 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Welcome back to Innovation Hot and Cara Miller. When millions of people were thrown out of work early in the pandemic, it was hard to tell how this would ultimately affect the economy. Hunger shot up still remains high. Lots of restaurants and shops shut down temporarily than some permanently. Many low wage workers saw their jobs evaporate. But on the other hand, plenty of companies avoided layoffs. Some people. Let's assume you sold pollutants or stuff on Amazon or subscriptions to streaming services. Some got outrageously rich, but many, many Americans exist somewhere in the middle. They don't work in fast food, but they also don't bring in $250,000 a year. I've been talking to Betsey Stevenson. She was the chief economist at the Labor Department, and David Autor, an economist at MIT. About what lies ahead and David. Um We've talked about the increasing automation of fast food, take jobs and literally bring in robots into fast food restaurants. Give me a clearer sense of what happens to the jobs in the middle like Are they about to be automated? Are they safe? Uh, certainly, before the pandemic For years, people would talk about the middle being hollowed out. Is that happening? I think you know, I think it's hard to read in the midst of the con transition we're in. But, yeah, I think there's a lot of evidence continuing that they're the automation continues to erode a lot of those. Conventional middle skill jobs the you know, administrative support production, clerical accounting and those jobs have, you know to really exist? They're really, really quite different from they used to be. And you know, you do not have a phone person who answers the phone and you know types and copies and files right. People who do administrative work now are problem solvers by and large And I think there's reason to think that automation will push more into that. And the AI. We still don't know. But you know that it's a little bit shape shifting. It's hard to predict. You know, we knew a roadmap of how computing advanced in the pre AI era. We knew problems you had to, you know, systematize them right down on the rules called them up. Test Deploy. AI is really quite different from that and that it's sort of trainable as opposed to having to be, you know, instructed step by step so it can change fast. I think there's I think we'll see more automation. A lot of decision making jobs as well. So you know that middle. What was the middle? Maybe expanding? Right? Maybe okay. Um So yeah, I was, actually. So I was going to jump in and say, I mean, when you listen to David, what you were saying, as you hear immediately that some of the jobs in the middle went up. So it's not like they all were just eliminated. Right. It's now office assistance actually are more productive because they have all sorts of technology they work with, and that's made some of them like much more highly compensated. It's just a better job. There are fewer of them. But it's a It's a more skilled, more interesting job and more stressful. But the thing we haven't talked about that I think about a lot is just who owns the technology. So you know you worry a lot about No jobs of people who drive for a living right. Like a lot of lower skilled men drive. They drive trucks. They drive uber. They drive taxis. They drive buses. They drive things. And technology is going to come along. That is going to automate that. As these drivers can rely more on technology, they can be more productive, but then we need fewer of them. But then they're also becomes the issue of Are they all driving somebody else's truck and who is it? Capital or labour? Who's going to benefit from that? I mean, you know, you posed a question there and I I wonder if, um I can ask both of you. Um, What are the questions that you think are the most important? Like what? What do you think about, um at night when you're kinda you know, thinking about how things are changing what the pandemic has done, how it's changed things. Are there questions that maybe we're not hearing enough about in the media? They're just not being covered. I think one concern is the way and this has been ongoing but the way it's kind of concentrated product market power and corporate power and sort of, you know, the incredible market share evaluation of you, Google and Amazon and and all the tech titans. And you know, we generally have a long term issue in the US with declining rates of competition in many sectors and you know, we pay high prices as a result of that, For many things, we pay very high prices for mobile phone service. Air travel cable TV, We have an insufficient competition. These areas and and that lack of competition doesn't only affect the price of products but also the affects the way that labor markets work. If there's only one employer that can use your skill. It's hard for you to, you know, strike a fair bargain and the pandemic. Clearly has kind of benefited a bunch of superstar firms. And so it could, it could actually make it could exacerbate this problem. Let me just follow up on that quickly. One of my favorite quote, probably ever on this program was I was talking to somebody who had written a book about Walmart and Sam Walton and the rise of the company. And you know he whose document how people used to complain, though it's ruining small towns in the Midwest, and you know different things and and you know, he said. You know? Wal Mart did not come in two towns with a tractor beam and make people shop at them, he said. If you are wondering why WalMart Selves certain quality of things in certain places, and and it has certain effects on small towns I think he said. We did that. If you're wondering who did that? We did that. Um And I think about that, along with Amazon, like if you're wondering who made Amazon what it is, That's us like we did. And so I don't know what you think about that. I mean, it's It's not like somebody gun to our heads. And you have to order from Amazon. We We chose it. Yeah, No, no, I I don't fall Amazon for you know, being an innovative company and aggressive, effective competitor. It's more once you reach the point where you know you kind of Cleaned out the ecosystem of competitors. What happens then? Yeah, So you know, clearly Walmart came in, and they offered lower prices and a lot of convenience and people thought that was great. But after a while, they don't have competitors. All right, And so you know how they behave in that sitting maybe a little bit different, and there's a long history of companies starting out incredibly as incredibly innovative. And growing on the merits, And then once they reached the top, they then buy up or crowd out their competitors. Right, You know, Facebook, which obviously offered a thing that a lot of people value also started buying out, you know what's happened so on And so when they saw competitors arising they found another way to compete with them, which was to purchase them and and eliminate that threat. So I think that's I don't fall companies for growing successfully, but I think you know, once we reach a certain point, there are challenges that creep in and we may be at that point in many in many sectors. Well, I felt I felt regulators for not having a greater control over stopping companies from doing that. We don't actually want a company to acquire all of its competitors to squash them. That's not a healthy society, and I think you know part of the problem in the United States is we've gotten really confused about what it means to be pro market and pro business and pro market means maintaining healthy competition in the marketplace. Pro business means helping businesses squashed.

David Betsey Stevenson David Autor Google $250,000 Sam Walton Facebook WalMart Wal Mart United States US Amazon Walmart both MIT Cara Miller millions Innovation Hot One two towns
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

02:52 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"These are high income households where people are working really long hours in these greedy jobs. It's not just the number of hours, but it's actually on demand all the time. The problem with a greedy job is greedy. Jobs are like toddlers. And so a household can't have too greedy jobs and a toddler, right You've got to have like It's got to be, you know, one One body per toddler. And that means that if there's a human toddler, there can only be one job toddler and like once it comes down to allocating that way. It usually falls to the woman to take the human toddler and the man to take the toddler job. The question is why we need jobs that act like toddlers, and I don't think there's anything in economics that really says that it has to be this way. Like there's some arguments of economies of scale. But honestly, I think a lot of these people don't become more productive in their 70 at the hour. Um and we've seen You know, Claudia Goldin has pointed to occupations where There has been a change forced. If you think about obstetrics, right carry you just had a baby when my mom had a baby. My mom likes to tell me her birth story and it's all complaining. One It's all complaining about how her doctor had some dinner party he had to go to. And so he should have done more to bring on her labor faster, But he wanted to be at his dinner party and no, there's no partner to step in for him. Whereas when I had my child, I was in labor for 72 hours and I must have gone through. A dozen doctors. And in fact, the doctor ended up delivering me was like I've been off for two days. You're still here. So like they did no longer expect one doctor to be following you through your entire labor. They don't even expect one doctor to follow you through your entire pregnancy. They used to claim that the only way to give you good medical care was if it was one doctor giving you that continuity of care. We now actually think that you know, doctors that are a little bit better rested. And can read. Your chart can deliver, Babe, you know, just as healthy of a baby. So what caused that change? I don't think it was a technological change in childbirth thing. It was really pressure from the people going into that field in terms of the working conditions they wanted. Working on what a way to make a living Captain by taking and no giving. Just use your A final quick break here. I'm Karen Miller. I'm speaking with economists Betsey Stevenson.

Karen Miller Claudia Goldin Betsey Stevenson two days 72 hours 70 one doctor one job toddler one A dozen doctors One body per toddler One
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

08:06 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Back to Innovation hub. I'm Karen Miller. We're looking at how the pandemic has changed the economy. What jobs have disappeared, which ones are on the rise and with a bunch of government stimulus have some of the gaps between the rich and the poor, began to close. I am joined again by Betsey Stevenson. She was the chief economist of the Labor Department in the Obama administration. She's not the University of Michigan and David Bader is the Ford professor of economics at M I t. David. What has been striking to me so far in this discussion is that You don't seem to see these huge changes in the economy, leading to large pools of unemployed people who are let's say, pushed out by automation. In fact, there may have been some increase in wages. So are we seeing Maybe Counterintuitively generally positive turn generally positive direction, uh, for the economy going forward. I think so. The scarcity that we're seeing is I view as a positive. It's you know, again if we were if you were saying, Look, there's all this automation occurring and people can't get their old jobs back. I would have a very different perspective on that. I don't want to be clear that not all automation is good, and there are many things to be concerned about. And there have been Very troubling or challenging episodes in the past, But this particular episode is relatively positive. And we say that, um you know, we're heading into an era of sustained labor scarcity because of demographics. The combination of you know smaller cohorts, much lower fertility and then vastly restricted immigration, which could change but doesn't appear to be changing means that you know The where there will be fewer young people to do physically demanding jobs will be fewer workers per retiree, which is costly. Uh and we're gonna need automation. To pull that off, And in fact, the countries that are furthest ahead in automation are the countries that have the oldest populations. So Japan Italy, Korea, Germany, Those countries are aging fast and now I mean, we're all aging about the same rate individually but country some injuries, countries age fast and others, depending on how many new young people they bring in. So I think that this period of labor scarcity is likely to be sustained. I mean, they'll be fluctuations. Obviously, there'll be booms and busts, so I think we're transitioning now earlier than expected. To a different, normal and in some ways a better one Can. I actually added one point just on what Betsy was messing about, You know our norms about working from home. It's easy to forget that this is not the first work from home era. And that, In fact, the anomaly is the working from the office and prior to the Industrial revolution. Most people work from home either they were agriculture. But even a lot of the artisanal work was work from home. You would get materials from the employer, the factory, you would bring them home. You would make boots you would make you know clothing. You would so things you would build things and then you would bring them back. And that was part of sometimes it is called the putting out system. And we transitioned to working in buildings together side by side when the technology changed and required and made that much more productive, right. You can't have an assembly line where everyone's working from home. They all need to be in the same building, but that was actually considered. Really unnatural to pull people away from their families. 40 50 60 80 hours a week and so in. Sometimes it's much you know the notion that we all have a place where we live, and then a different place that waits for us when we're not there where we do our work, and we transition between two spaces and with a completely different set of people. Is not the norm through most of human history, and many of us discovered there a lot of virtues to seeing your family more often than just at dinner time. Um, so people may have changed their expectations and, uh, increasing the survey evidence says people are bargaining with employers about how many days are they allowed to work from home? You know, the staff at MIT, where I work, have all you know have negotiated the university to to have at least one and typically two days a week working from home if feasible, if they do the type of work that can be delivered that way. Um Betsy, one of the subgroups in the in the labor market that you and I have talked about over the last year is women. There's uh, there was obviously a huge disruption. A lot of this is simply People did not have places to put their Children over the last year. I mean that it is as simple as that You cannot go to work and leave the six year old at home. That's not a thing. Um What's your sense of where things stand now with women in the labour market and are there lasting ripples out from that that even a few years on We may see So I'm going to like, follow right up on what David was saying about how unnatural it it is to work. Leave your house at you know 7 30 in the morning and come home at six o'clock at night, Having dropped your kid off at daycare in between. And doing that five days a week. It's also very cumbersome in terms of the amount of time it takes, right. So one of the reasons why researchers have found work from home can actually increase. Productivity is just because if you have an extra hour a day from not commuting or two or two, you can use that time. To do things for your family and for your employer, and it turns out, most people split that time in some way, where they give some share of it to their employer in terms of time for work. So I think that we've really learned that workplace flexibility makes balancing work and family much easier. And the problem was women sort of knew that, but they were asked to pay a big penalty for getting that flexibility. That was like, Oh, you're that kind of worker The kind of worker who prioritizes family. Hmm. Wow, We're going to have to highly discount your wage for being that type of person. And you know what I think we've learned is both men and women with Children are that kind of worker And they're actually quite valuable in the workplace. And there's always been security and numbers right. It's a coordination problem. If every parent of every man and woman had stood up and said, I have kids at home, and I need to be home at least You know, two days a week so that I can pick them up if they're sick or stay home with them if they're six, so that I don't have to spend so much on childcare so that I can be home when someone comes to repair the washing machine or whatever it is, you need done. If we had all insisted on that, then employers would be like, okay, everybody needs that. You're not. You're not a less dedicated worker type. You're just a person type. So there's that safety in numbers and my hope is coming out of this pandemic. People are going to say, Hey, we all liked that We all need that It made our lives better. It made working better. And that's going to make it a lot easier for women. I mean, I think if you talk to a lot of women who had babies during the pandemic, it was God sent like you didn't have to go back to work. Right? Yes, you didn't. You know you had a child care issue, but people don't really like putting their six week old in childcare settings. Yeah, And you know if you have if you were lucky enough to have a baby that sleeps a lot. You know they're right there that you can nurse you can you can get back to work somewhat. You can share the responsibilities with your spouse. And you didn't face that gut wrenching thing that a lot of parents face a really young ages of dropping your kid off for, you know, 10 hours a day. I think that kind of flexibility. I hope a lot of employers rethink what maternity and paternity leave is all about. I would love to see maternity leave and paternity Li be a period of time where you have no work. And then a period of time where you work remotely at, say, 80% or 60% hours and you ramp back up until you're at 100% work and back in the office, you know, two days a week..

Karen Miller David Bader Betsey Stevenson 60% 80% six 100% University of Michigan six week Betsy Labor Department two last year 40 both one point Ford two spaces 7 30 six o'clock at night
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

06:32 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"And so that's a coordination problem, and it's changed the norms change what's acceptable about how we do our work together? Well, we don't all have to be in a studio. So that's actually incredibly that's that's a productivity improvement, but also changes the way we'll use offices. Changes how much time will spend downtown. It changes. Where will want to live relative to where our offices are located? It changes how much business travel will do you? No, I don't intend to cross many more continents for 90 minute meetings unless someone is giving me a big bonus for doing that. That's a lot of time. So that's one set of changes right about how we work a second. Of course, how we consume people are much more accepting of the idea. That things will be done online and through machine person interactions rather than person, person interactions. You know, I used to find it very anxiety provoking to try to order food online. I would much rather speak to a person so I can know they got the order, right? Now I think it's much better to do it on the computer that can be sure that all the parameters are dialed in. There is no ambiguity. When I get the email, it says what I typed right? That's also changes, norms and expectations and what customers anticipate. You know, a few years ago, it might have been really difficult to roll out, Holly The customer would have said, You know, why isn't there a person taking my order? This is cumbersome. This is annoying right now. They say, Oh, I guess you know, I've learned to live with this is okay. I You know, I I buy. I buy every single object I own on Amazon. I guess I can, you know, speak to Holly. When I'm ordering a chicken sandwich. And then of course, there's the technology technological changes themselves. We've been speaking out that basically the pandemic. Pulled technologies from 5 10 years in the future into the present. They sped up the rate is many of these things would have occurred. But they've occurred faster because they became more valuable as labor was scarce. So let me pause there. I'm sure Betsy has much to add. Yeah. What do you think in five or 10 years and we look back at like What? What the pandemic do two things. What do you think will say, I think the big unknown is how much it has changed How we think about our work and our lives and our consumption. The kind of things David was just talking about. Are these permanent? Are they transitory? Is this really about pulling forward like we all just learned it's not just the technology got rolled out 5 to 10 years faster. But we actually learned 5 to 10 years worth of technology adoption in a one year period. That's a really, really big deal. So I actually worked for a tech consulting company when airlines were rolling out self check in kiosks, and so one thing you might not remember is that Alaska Airlines was one of the first airlines to roll it out. And other airlines were considering it working on it had plans and then September 11th happened, says 20 years ago, Back in the old days, you can see Alaska self check in kiosks were at the gate. Because you didn't need a boarding pass to get through security. That was one of their problems. Um, but it was a real question. All the airlines were like, Wait a minute. Um do we keep rolling out this technology? Or will it be a problem and the fear there's always a fear when there's new technologies about whether consumers will use them. Um, you know, I remember. There were eight months when I was a kid and my mom still wanted to get out of the car and go in and stand in the queue and have a real person handle her money because maybe an ATM would make a mistake. So all these kinds of fears of technology that's a normal pattern of adopting technology. But you know what Covid was scarier than new technology. So, like my parents adopted, click and collect, like David. They always wanted to talk to a person. Now they order online, and they get frustrated. If you know the online process doesn't work. So I think that's going to stick. The bigger question is Will the ways in which the pandemic has shaped how we think about working from home. Well, that's stick and how will it shape a younger generation of younger people? How will the closeness of people with their families? You know we've had More young people living with their parents, people in their twenties living with their parents than we ever had in the housing crisis. How will that shape their approach to To work and closest with their families. Will they want to live near their parents when they eventually have Children in their thirties? Because they developed this close relationship, and I want that help with childcare. Um, well, yeah, even younger people who saw how their grandparents came in and helped when the child care center shut down, will that change their relationships? These questions are important for work because that will affect where you want to work that will also affect your demand from being you know, wanting to work in urban area wanting to go into the office. I tend to think that these are really seismic shifts that will last decades, But I do think That we're changing what we want. And right now we see that in the surveys, and we see that in the behavior. I agree with David. I thought people would become pouring back into labor market. They don't want their jobs back. They don't all want their jobs back. There also kind of annoyed at their jobs. They have never seen so many people in surveys say they want something different. They don't all want to work less. Let me be clear about that. I I kind of wanted to work less. And so then I over extrapolated and thought maybe other people would feel like me. Um, it's hard not to project but it just turns out that that's not right. Some people were like, Oh, why was you know why I should have buckled down and really made? My career happened when I had a chance, and look at how covid derailed things for me? And so now I'm going to be more laser focused on making things happen. I'm going back to school. I'm getting that degree. That is part of why we don't see people going to take orders right now because they've decided they want to do something more meaningful with their life. So I think we're going to come out of this with people with more skills and Better able to manage the the technological change. And I also think we have a little bit. Maybe not a lot, but a little bit more empathy from policy makers in terms of what's the best way to support people when they have no income. I'm Karen Miller. I'm speaking with Betsey Stevenson from the University of Michigan, David Autor from MIT. We're looking at how the pandemic is going to change the kinds of.

Karen Miller Betsey Stevenson David David Autor Alaska Airlines Amazon 5 September 11th Holly 90 minute Betsy one year five thirties eight months University of Michigan one 20 years ago 10 years two things
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

09:56 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"A medium with no catch up. What do you want to drink? Diet Coke. I added one medium bacon zilla combo with no ketchup with medium Diet Coke. Anything else? That's Holly, the robot who sometimes takes your order, and she will be doing more as Shana Gonzalez and the company. She got Holly from a startup called Valiant. Trains her because in different areas, we have different accents, and we have different styles ordering things like that. And that was at the beginning. Probably some of the biggest challenges that Holly had is kind of just differentiating some of the slaying. Um for ordering and and just not knowing that part as well as the human employee would But don't worry. She's getting better. And Holly is just one sign that the labor market is changing in all sorts of ways that are going to affect both this generation and the next Many of which were accelerated, and sometimes shockingly, so by the pandemic. We're going to talk about all that this hour. But David Otter, a professor of economics at MIT, and one of the world's leading experts, unemployment and automation, says If you're worried that Holly is a sign of solid jobs, disappearing one by one. Mm. Don't be. There is not a future in order taking that's even If we would have those jobs in perpetuity. They would never be high paid jobs they would never offer. You know, security, wage progression, Lifetime of improving opportunity. And so it's It's inevitable and generally positive that we're going to take low productivity jobs that have no future and have them done by machines at the hamburger chain, White Castle Otter notes. Robots are now sometimes used to cook up French fries, which doesn't exactly make him nostalgic for the old days. Good riddance to that job. And so this is a sign of the Times is a sign of tight labor markets, and that means it's also going to be a sign of rising wages. And employers working harder to make jobs attractive for workers. And there are many good things that come from that years ago, I talked to a fascinating pioneer in robotics who told me that people often pine for jobs that are now automated. But he said, when those jobs were not automated, many of them made people sick or they broke down people's bodies. By the time they were 40, or they were physically very dangerous. Still, there's a definite and not unreasonable fear that automation is going to steal jobs people need and depend on David Otter, the economist from MIT, argues. The gig, taking orders at checkers or frying the fries at White Castle. They're a bit different. This is automation that's being actually forced by labor scarcity, and that's quite different from automation that arise because we have a breakthrough, and it just makes workers cheap relative machines. Automation that is pushed by labor scarcity is almost always labor. Complementary. It makes people more productive. On average. This is not, you know, we we found a machine that sets type on the newspaper. So goodbye to all our type setters. It's not that all fears of automation are unreasonable. It really does displace people, and not all jobs are displaced by automation are bad jobs. Right. Some of them are production jobs. Some of them are office and administrative support jobs. Some of them are decision making jobs. So I don't say good riddance to every job that is automated. But when this is driven by labor scarcity at the low end of the labor market. It generally means that employers are pushing hard to find workers. To do that work means that they're gonna compete harder Pay higher wages, offered more benefits and training. And the parts of it that can be done automatically or done by a machine will be done in general. That's because employers are responding to workers demanding better, Hmm. Let me bring into this conversation. Betsey Stevenson. She's a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She was chief economist at the U. S. Department of Labor during the Obama administration. Betsy. We see a ton of this like labor saving stuff going on. Some of it is robots. But some of it is grills in restaurants that now can grill both sides of a piece of bread. So basically you have no human that has to come and turn it over. So instead of a big bang, you just see human sort of quietly being removed from the equation. Um, what do you think when you see what's happening here? Well, I was very excited to hear about Holly. That sounds really nice to me to look, I think if we think about David's optimism and his enthusiasm, good riddance to these bad jobs, that's kind of an endgame thought because at the end of the day we are better off in the whole history. Of improving living standards over centuries has been about technology, reducing things that we need to do so that we can do other things and not has allowed us to produce more. The problem is there can be a transition where some people are hurt. So I think when David was talking about while this came out of labor scarcity to me what that's about is this transition won't be quite as painful because I'm not handing an individual a pink slip. And when an individual gets a pink slip, that's kind of a painful transition, like they got to figure out what they're going to do here. What we have is well, there's no instead of hiring people where deploying AI And somebody got a job out of that, like the people who invented that computer parted company is a is a going concern, right? Like they were popping the champagne. Hey, we just got a new client. This is amazing. We sold our product. We've worked so hard on it. So they're happy and the owner of the restaurants like I was having a hard time hiring workers, so she's happy because she has a new solution and the workers who are left in the restaurant. Well, now they're more productive because they have this technology that's helping them out. That should make her more likely to pay her existing workers higher wages. So all of that we get to the good part without actually handing somebody pink slip. The problem is that a lot of the technological change we're going to see it could happen quickly enough that we see people handed a pink slip in some ways the covid pandemic. Has helped because it was so disruptive that as people are rolling new things out when we really couldn't safely put human beings into these jobs, and that's given us a time to roll out technology and make big changes where everybody's trying to rethink what they want to do. Betsy. It's interesting because I think there's a mismatch. Or maybe there isn't you tell me, but I think there's a mismatch in the way people think about this you've got we've just been through a summer of lifeguard shortages and, you know shortages of waiters and waitresses and shortages. You know, hotels being like. I can't get people to work at the front desk like on and on the many, many shortages where people have said I'm really concerned. I can't get enough people to do X Y Z to be at the beach and watch the swimmers and so on. Um and I think there's some there has been some, like line of thinking like great then this gives people who don't make that much money, more bargaining power. But it sounds like under the radar. What's happening is the people who run those things are thinking. How can we get fewer people to make the sandwich? How does that work? Well, sort of Both. Those things can be are happening at the same time. So let me say something clearly drives me crazy. When people say we can't get any workers Now you can't get any workers at the way Do you want to pay? You know, I looked at my swim club and they were like we can't hire lifeguards, and I was like, maybe pay in the double digits instead of the single digits per hour. See what happens there. So the problem is, we've gotten really used to cheap, low wage labor. And we've got to break that habit. Cheap, low wage. Labor is not sustainable for anybody so we're going to make. We're going to pay people more for their efforts, and we're going to try to make them more productive by rolling out more technology. If we make them more productive, it's easier to justify paying them higher wages. So these two things actually go together in a way that actually is, I think, positive and reinforcing David. I remember talking to you very early in the pandemic. I think things have just been shut down for a few weeks. And I remember you saying that once employers learn something about being able to do with less fewer employees being able to automate things That's just not something that they can unlearn. So When you think about okay in five or 10 years when we all look back on what the pandemic did to labor, how it kind of reordered the marketplace. What do you think we're going to seek? So I stand by that statement that once once Something's learned can be unlearned, Uh, but I think I think there are a number of changes. So I mean, an important set of changes actually is around both consumption habits and work habits, not just the technology cells. So, for example, the fact that we're all doing this call this conversation from our various closets on our various computers. It's true. Closets are great. I mean, this is a lot more convenient since I believe we're at least in three different states. And that's that's not. That's not so much a technological change. In fact, you know, many of us were using teleconferencing a few years ago to work with co authors. It's the miracle is not that I'm using zoom is that you're all using zoom simultaneously right? And so that's a coordination problem, and it's changed the norms change what's acceptable about how we do our work together? Well, we don't all have to be in a studio. So that's actually incredibly.

David Otter David Shana Gonzalez Betsey Stevenson 40 Holly five MIT U. S. Department of Labor Betsy University of Michigan 10 years Valiant Obama White Castle both sides Both both three different states one
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

NEWS 88.7

07:46 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

"When millions of people were thrown out of work early in the pandemic, it was hard to tell how this would ultimately affect the economy. Hunger shot up still remains high. Lots of restaurants and shops shut down temporarily than some permanently. Many low wage workers saw their jobs evaporate. But on the other hand, plenty of companies avoided layoffs. Some people. Let's assume you sold pollutants or stuff on Amazon or subscriptions to streaming services. Some got outrageously rich, but many, many Americans exist somewhere in the middle. They don't work in fast food, but they also don't bring in $250,000 a year. I've been talking to Betsey Stevenson. She was the chief economist at the Labor Department, and David Autor, an economist at MIT. About what lies ahead and David. Um We've talked about the increasing automation of fast food, take jobs and literally bring in robots into fast food restaurants. Give me a clearer sense of what happens to the jobs in the middle like Are they about to be automated? Are they safe? Certainly before the pandemic For years, people would talk about the middle being hollowed out. Is that happening? I think you know, I think it's hard to read in the midst of the country's Ishan, we're in. But, yeah, I think there's a lot of evidence continuing that they're the automation continues to erode. Lot of those conventional middle skill jobs, the administrative support production, clerical, accounting and those jobs have, you know to really exist? They're really, really quite different from they used to be. And you know, you do not have a phone person who answers the phone and you know types and copies and files right. People who do administrative work now are problem solvers by and large And I think there's reason to think that automation will push more into that. And the AI. We still don't know, but you know it's a little bit shape shifting. It's hard to predict. You know, we knew a roadmap of how computing advanced in the pre AI era. We knew problems you had to, you know, systematize them right down on the rules called them up test Deploy. Is really quite different from that, and that it's sort of trainable as opposed to having to be, you know, instructed step by step so it can change fast. I think there's I think we'll see more automation a lot of decision making jobs as well. So you know that middle? What was the middle? Maybe expanding? Right? Maybe move, okay. Um, So yeah, I was, actually. So I was going to jump in and say, I mean, when you listen to David, what you were saying is you hear immediately that some of the the jobs in the middle went up, so it's not like they all were just eliminated, right? It's now. Office assistance actually are more productive because they have all sorts of technology they work with, and that's made some of them like much more highly compensated. It's just a better job. There are fewer of them. But it's a It's a more skilled, more interesting job and more stressful. But the thing we haven't talked about that I think about a lot is just who owns the technology. So you know you worry a lot about No jobs of people who drive for a living right. Like a lot of lower skilled men drive. They drive trucks. They drive uber. They drive taxis. They drive buses. They drive things. And technology is going to come along. That is going to automate that. As these drivers can rely more on technology, they can be more productive, but then we need fewer of them. But then they're also becomes the issue of Are they all driving somebody else's truck and who is it? Capital or labour? Who's going to benefit from that? I mean, you know, you posed a question there and I I wonder if, um, I can ask both of you. Um, What are the questions that you think are the most important? Like what? What do you think about, um at night when you're kind of, you know, thinking about how things are changing what the pandemic has done, how it's changed things. Are there questions that maybe we're not hearing enough about in the media? They're just not being covered. I think one concern is the way and this has been ongoing but the way it's kind of concentrated product market power and corporate power and sort of, you know, the incredible market share evaluation of you, Google and Amazon and and all the tech titans. And you know, we generally have a long term issue in the US with declining rates of competition in many sectors and you know, we pay high prices as a result of that, For many things, we pay very high prices for mobile phone service. Air travel cable TV, We have an insufficient competition. These areas and, uh, and that lack of competition doesn't only affect the price of products but also the affects the way that labor markets work. If there's only one employer, they can use your skill. It's hard for you to, you know, strike a fair bargain and the pandemic. Clearly has kind of benefited a bunch of superstar firms. And so it could. It could actually make it could exacerbate this problem. Let me just follow up on that quickly. One of my favorite quote, probably ever on this program was I was talking to somebody who had written a book about Walmart and Sam Walton and the rise of the company and, you know, he talked to document how people used to complain. Oh, it's ruining small towns in the Midwest and you know different things. And and you know, he said. You know, Wal Mart did not come in two towns with a tractor beam and make people shop at them, he said. If you are wondering why Wal Mart sells certain quality of things in certain places, and and it has certain effects on small towns I think he said. We did that. If you're wondering who did that? We did that. Um And I think about that, along with Amazon, like if you're wondering who made Amazon what it is, That's us like we do, And so I don't know what you think about that. I mean, it's It's not like somebody gun to our heads. And you have to order from Amazon. We we chose it. Yeah, No, no, I I don't fall Amazon for you know, being an innovative company and aggressive, effective competitor. It's more once you reach the point where you know you kind of Cleaned out the ecosystem of competitors. What happens then? Yeah, So you know, clearly Walmart came in, and they offered lower prices and a lot of convenience and people thought that was great. But after a while, they don't have competitors. All right, And so you know how they behave in that sitting maybe a little bit different, and there's a long history of companies starting out incredibly as incredibly innovative. And growing on the merits, And then once they reached the top, they then buy up or crowd out their competitors. Right, You know, Facebook, which obviously offered a thing that a lot of people value also started buying out, you know what's happened so on And so when they saw competitors arising they found another way to compete with them, which was to purchase them and and eliminate that threat. So I think that's I don't fall companies for growing successfully, but I think you know once we reach a certain point, their challenges that creep in and we may be at that point in many in many sectors. Well, I felt I felt regulators for not having a greater control over stopping companies from doing that. We don't actually want a company to acquire all of its competitors to squash them. That's not a healthy society, and I think you know part of the problem in the United States is we've gotten really confused about what it means to be pro market and pro business and pro market means maintaining healthy competition in the marketplace. Pro business means helping businesses squashed.

David Betsey Stevenson David Autor $250,000 Wal Mart Google United States Facebook Walmart Amazon Sam Walton US both MIT One Ishan two towns Labor Department one employer uber
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

NEWS 88.7

02:19 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

"I'm speaking with Betsey Stevenson from the University of Michigan, David Autor from my T. We're looking at how the pandemic is going to change the kinds of jobs that exists how the economy treats us and coming up. We'll have more of those seismic shifts the bits he was talking about, including what happens to the divide between the haves and have nots coming out of Covid. You can always let me know your thoughts on the show or what your experience of the economy has been. I'm on Twitter at Keira Keira at Cara E. Miller. From GBH. NPR X. This is innovation Hub back in just a minute. Thousands of first responders descended on the World Trade Center following the 9 11 attacks in the 20 years Since those first responders have seen a higher rate of several types of cancers, the exposure was really dramatic. The dust I mean there was all kinds of carcinogens, a new study suggests that same group has a higher chance of surviving the cancers. On the next morning edition from NPR News composer Aaron Copland has been called the Essential American. His music continues to be imitated, especially in the movies and for many embodies hard work and the great outdoors for Labor Day, a special look at his work and the politics that came with his efforts to celebrate the American worker. That's next time on one a 11 A.m. weekdays Welcome back to innovation Hub and Karen Miller. We're looking at how the pandemic has changed the economy. What jobs have disappeared, which ones are on the rise and with a bunch of government stimulus have some of the gaps between the rich and the poor, began to close. I am joined again by Betsey Stevenson. She was the chief economist of the Labor Department in the Obama administration. She's not the University of Michigan and David Otter is the Ford professor of economics at M I t. David. What has been striking to me so far in this discussion.

Aaron Copland Betsey Stevenson Karen Miller David Otter Labor Day David Autor 11 A.m. University of Michigan Twitter Labor Department NPR News 9 11 attacks NPR 20 years Thousands World Trade Center Ford next morning first responders M I t.
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

NEWS 88.7

09:36 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on NEWS 88.7

"With no ketchup. What do you want to drink? Diet Coke. I added one medium bacon zilla Kamba with no ketchup with medium Diet Coke. Anything else? That's Holly, the robot who sometimes takes your order, and she will be doing more as Shana Gonzalez and the company. She got Holly from a startup called Valiant. Trains her because in different areas, we have different accents, and we have different styles ordering things like that. And that was at the beginning. Probably some of the biggest challenges that Holly had is kind of just differentiating some of the slaying. Um for ordering and and just not knowing that part as well as a human employee would But don't worry. She's getting better. And Holly is just one sign that the labor market is changing in all sorts of ways that are going to affect both this generation and the next Many of which were accelerated and sometimes shockingly, so by the pandemic, and we're going to talk about all that this hour. But David Otter, a professor of economics at MIT, and one of the world's leading experts, unemployment and automation, says If you're worried that Holly as a sign of solid jobs, disappearing one by one Mm. Don't be. There is not a future in order taking that's even If we would have those jobs in perpetuity. They would never be high paid jobs they would never offer. You know, Security wage progression. Lifetime of improving opportunity. And so it's side. It's inevitable and generally positive that we're going to take low productivity jobs that have no future and have them done by machines at the hamburger chain, White Castle Otter notes. Robots are now sometimes used to cook up French fries, which doesn't exactly make him nostalgic for the old days. Good riddance to that job. And so this is a sign of the Times is a sign of tight labor markets, and that means it's also going to be a sign of rising wages. Employers working harder to make jobs attractive for workers. And there are many good things that come from that years ago. I talked to a fascinating pioneer in robotics who told me People often pine for jobs that are now automated. But he said, when those jobs were not automated, many of them made people sick or they broke down people's bodies. By the time they were 40, or they were physically very dangerous. Still, there is a definite and not unreasonable fear that automation is going to steal jobs people need and depend on David Otter, the economist from MIT, argues. The gig, taking orders at checkers or frying the fries at White Castle. They're a bit different. This is automation that's being actually forced by labor scarcity, and that's quite different from automation that arise because we have a breakthrough, and it just makes workers. She brought the machines. Automation that is pushed by labor scarcity is almost always labor. Complementary. It makes people more productive. On average. This is not, you know, we we found a machine that sets type on the newspaper. So goodbye to all our type setters. It's not that all fears of automation are unreasonable. It really does displace people, and not all jobs are displaced by automation are bad jobs. Some of them are production jobs. Some of them are office and administrative support jobs. Some of them are decision making jobs. So I don't say good riddance to every job that is automated. But when this is driven by labor scarcity at the low end of the labour market, it generally means that employers are pushing hard to find workers. To do that work means that they can compete harder. Pay higher wages, offered more benefits and training and the parts of it that can be done automatically or done by a machine will be done in general. That's because employers are responding to workers demanding better. Let me bring into this conversation. Betsey Stevenson. She's a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan. She was chief economist at the U. S. Department of Labor between the Obama administration. Let's see. We see a ton of this like labor saving stuff going on. Some of it is robots. But some of it is grills and restaurants that now can grill both sides of a piece of bread. So basically you have no human that has to come and turn it over. So instead of a big bang, you just see human sort of quietly being removed from the equation. Um, what do you think when you see what's happening here? Well, I was very excited to hear about Holly. That sounds really nice to me to look, I think if we think about David's optimism and his enthusiasm, good riddance to these bad jobs, that's kind of an endgame thought because at the end of the day we are better off in the whole history of improving living standards. Over centuries has been about technology, reducing things that we need to do so that we can do other things and not has allowed us to produce more. The problem is there can be a transition where some people are hurt. So I think when David was talking about, well, this came out of labor scarcity to me. What that's about is this transition won't be quite as painful because I'm not handing an individual a pink slip. And when an individual gets a pink slip, that's kind of a painful transition, like they got to figure out what they're going to do. Here. What we have is well, there's no instead of hiring people where deploying AI and somebody got a job out of that, like the people who invented that right you don't start a company is a is a going concern, right? Like they were popping the champagne. Hey, we just got a new client. This is amazing. We sold our product. We worked so hard on it. So they're happy and the owner of the restaurants like I was having a hard time hiring workers, So she's happy because she has a new solution and the workers who are left in the restaurant. Well, now they're more productive because they have this technology that's helping them out. That should make her More likely to pay her existing workers higher wages. So all of that we get to the good part without actually handing somebody pink slip. The problem is that Lot of the technological change. We're going to see it could happen quickly enough that we see people handed a pink slip. In some ways. The covid pandemic has helped because it was so disruptive. That as people are rolling new things out when we really couldn't safely put human beings into these jobs, and that's given us a time to roll out technology and make big changes where everybody's trying to rethink what they want to do. Let's see. It's interesting because I think there's a mismatch. Or maybe there isn't you tell me, but I think there's a mismatch in the way people think about this. So you've got we've just been through a summer of lifeguard shortages and, you know, shortages of of waiters and waitresses and shortages. You know, hotels being like. I can't get people to work at the front desk like on and on the many, many shortages where people have said I'm really concerned. I can't get enough people to do X Y Z to be at the beach and watch the swimmers and so on. Um and I think there's some there has been some, like line of thinking like great then this gives people who don't make that much money, more bargaining power. But it sounds like under the radar. What's happening is the people who run those things are thinking. How can we get fewer people to make the sandwich? How does that work? Well, sort of Both. Those things can be are happening at the same time. So let me say something clearly drives me crazy. When people say we can't get any workers Now you can't get any workers at the way Do you want to pay? You know, I looked at my swim club and they were like we can't hire lifeguards, and I was like, maybe pay in the double digits instead of the single digits per hour. See what happens there. So the problem is, we've gotten really used to cheap, low wage labor. And we got to break that habit. Cheap, low wage. Labor is not sustainable for anybody. So we're gonna make. We're gonna pay people more for their efforts, and we're going to try to make them more productive by rolling out more technology. If we make them more productive, it's easier to justify paying them higher wages. So these two things actually go together in a way that actually is, I think, positive and reinforcing David. I remember talking to you very early in the pandemic. I think things have just been shut down for a few weeks. And I remember you saying that once employers learn something about being able to do with less fewer employees being able to automate things That's just not something that they can unlearn. So when you think about okay in five or 10 years when we all look back on what the pandemic did to labor, how it kind of reordered the market, please. What do you think we're going to seek? So I stand by that statement that once when something's learned can be unlearned, but I think I think there are a number of changes. So I mean, an important set of changes actually is around both consumption habits and work habits, not just the technology cells. So, for example, the fact that we're all doing this call this conversation from our various closets on our various computers. It's true closets are great, I mean, but this is a lot more convenient since I believe we're at least in three different states. And that's it. That's not. That's not so much a technological change..

David Otter David Shana Gonzalez Betsey Stevenson 40 Holly five U. S. Department of Labor MIT University of Michigan Valiant 10 years White Castle both sides three different states both two things Both one one sign
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on All In with Chris Hayes

All In with Chris Hayes

07:27 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on All In with Chris Hayes

"The latest job numbers came in far lower than expected what the delta surge has to do with it and what that means for the rebounding cova economy coming today. The first part of the month is one of the federal government releases. The latest jobs report and it details hiring unemployment in the past month august among other advisers. Topline number. We got was not great. Economy added just two hundred and thirty five thousand jobs last month. That's almost half a million jobs. Let fewer than the seven hundred and twenty thousand. That economists expected while that number may be disappointing. It was not exactly surprising as the president pointed out in his remarks. More there's no question the dell variant is wide. Today's job report isn't stronger. I know people were looking at. I was hoping for a higher number but next week. I'll lay out the next steps that are going to we're gonna d- to combat the delta variant to address some of those fears and concerns. Betsy stevenson's a foreign member of president obama's council of economic advisers. She's a professor of public policy economics at the university of michigan's ford school of public policy. And she joins me now. Let's start with just the basic idea here that that joe biden said a ton on the campaign and his president. Which is you can't like. There is no get the economy back without dealing with the pandemic and the pandemic flared up again. And so then here we are. The virus drives the economics year. It always has an. It's going to continue to deitz. And when we see case that are rising hospitalizations that are arising. I actually think the surprising thing is how. Well the economy's doing in the face of that if you compare that to how the economy did at the beginning of this pandemic we saw case rates that were much lower than even what we're seeing right now. I think to sort of catch twenty two of the top of the show. Which is that. Because of the presence of widely available vaccines we're not seeing those big policy interventions like closed down all the bars in the city are closed down venues because that just seems unfair right when when people can choose to get vaccinated. You could do it relatively safely so in that respect. I saw that airline numbers were down august. Travel was down like thirty three percent from two thousand nineteen. And i thought to myself. I think that's less drop than i would've guessed you know that if we're still two thirds of pre pandemic that's obviously a big decline but it's bigger than i think i would have guessed. Well you know. I think the thing to realize this that it's never really been about. What the governors are the local policy decisions. Were it's really about what people do to keep themselves correct. And i think there's a lot of people out there that are vaccinated. But they're hearing about breakthrough cases. And maybe they're not worried about themselves. Because we know those breakthrough cases are unlikely to land you in the hospital lead to debts. So we're insured if you're vaccinated against the worst outcomes but if you're like me and you have kids who are eligible vaccinated. Then you want to be extra cautious because you don't want to bring home so i think what we're seeing is people starting to pull back in terms of what they're doing and we're seeing companies worried about what people are going to choose to do. And so they're hesitating to bring people back in the office and that airline travel you're talking about. I think that people are pulling back on that. Because it's just more exposure than they want given how rampant in contagious delta varian diz. And so we're going to have to get either a higher vaccination rate start to vaccinate our kids or get enough people who've had cova that we actually get something that brings this a little bit more under control before we see the economy. Pick up again. It's going to pick up again but we're in a little bit of a long right now because cases are really growl and there's a real concern about unemployment insurance. I mean we had this situation where there was the unemployment insurance benefit which is a bonus. Above what you would be. What the calculated you. I would be six hundred dollars. It went down to three hundred dollars. And now it's gonna phase out and you know it's going to phase out at a time when the economy is not roaring and there's worry that people are just going to cause a lot of misery. Where are you out on. That will first of all. i think. Everybody's focused on that three hundred dollars too much. I'm focused on. The people are going to lose benefits one hundred percent. Yeah there's two there's two issues here there's the the end of the bonus but there's a bunch of people who've been on an extension of you why that's pandemic related past the normal expiration date that are going to hit an expiration days cliff. That's the majority of the people on you. I right now. So let's be clear. We're talking about a small group of people we're talking about the majority of people getting you. I are people who are on one of these expanded programs that covers more people. People aren't typically covered either because their earnings weren't quite high enough to become bert or because they're an independent contractor their self employed. There's reasons why they're not being covered. And i think that it's really important to realize that when you go to undesirable is very hard to pay rent and put food on the table. So those are the people. I am absolutely most worried about. Yeah and that's also like i mean. Obviously it's a human story because those people are gonna be in trouble. It's also not great macroeconomically because that's just a lot of money flowing into the economy for things like paying rent or buy clothes or whatever that's not there the one the one kind of bizarre upside to me. Excuse me is that. I keep worrying the feds gonna hike rates and there's going to be pressure and i've seen some fed governors saying well we're getting to the point where you gotta hydrates and i do think in a weird way what ends up happening is these kinds of job. Reports in the long run sort of punt off fed tightening in a way that might end up being salutary over the long term trajectory. the recovery. I think it's gonna put off fed tightening put outside tight because the economy is not that strong. So i'm glad that the economy of that strong. This is gonna put fed tightening. I'm glad that the fed is so responsive and is able to respond on a dime to the kind of news comes out today and say. Hey you know what the economy still need. some support. Were not really ready to do the kind of tightening that we'd like to be able to do going forward. And i so. I think the good news there is that we have flexible monetary policy. I love to have flexible fiscal policy. I'd love an unemployment insurance system that understood that we're just not ready to kick a lot of people lots of unemployment insurance and that is going to end up hurting us more than it helps you. Think about sort of the balance of unemployment insurance we wanna create incentives for people to get out there and get jobs. I get that. I think it's really important. We create those incentives people to get jobs. I also think we make sure that people can eat. And that are has enough money flowing into it. And when we have the pandemic on the rise in cases surging. We need to prioritize. Making sure people can eat and making sure that there's enough money flowing through our economy that they can pay the rent that we don't see convictions. Those should be our priorities. right now. Totally agree with that betsey stevenson. Thanks so much for making time have a great weekend. You at home you at home on your holiday we can. You're not working right now. You're watching television. that's cool. Don't go because tonight..

Betsy stevenson ford school of public policy deitz council of economic advisers joe biden university of michigan federal government president obama dell cova Travel bert fed betsey stevenson
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on This American Life

This American Life

03:09 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on This American Life

"<Speech_Female> with <SpeakerChange> a smiley <Speech_Music_Female> face next <Music> to it <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Male> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Advertisement> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Music> <Advertisement> <SpeakerChange> <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> today show <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> was produced by <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> them out of wound <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> an edited by <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> our executive editor <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> emmanuel ferry. <Speech_Music_Female> The people who <Speech_Music_Female> put our show together today <Speech_Music_Female> include susan <Speech_Female> burton aviva <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> cornfield tobin. Low <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> meet unique. Lena <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> mid-sixties <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> dough nelson catherine <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> raimondo. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Elissa ship laura <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> tuskegee willie <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> sullivan. Christopher <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> switala matt <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> tyranny nancy <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> updike <Speech_Music_Female> khloe wigner and <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> diane lu <Speech_Music_Female> managing editor <Speech_Music_Female> is sarah abderrahman <Speech_Music_Female> senior <Speech_Music_Female> editor. David <Speech_Music_Female> kastenbaum <Speech_Music_Female> special things today <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> to reach lissi <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> jennifer klein <Speech_Female> diana ramirez <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> at one <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> fair wage. <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> Kit wells <SpeakerChange> zoe. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Clark leah austin <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> and penelope whitney <Speech_Music_Female> derrick. Hamilton <Speech_Music_Female> robert <Speech_Music_Female> williams. And <Speech_Music_Female> how peterson <Speech_Female> zoe. Some muzi. <Speech_Female> gina. Jen <Speech_Female> tanya breslow <Speech_Female> betsey stevenson. <Speech_Female> And all <Speech_Female> the other people who spoke <Speech_Female> to me about their essential <Speech_Female> jobs <Speech_Female> and also thanks <Speech_Female> to the excellent reporters <Speech_Female> who have <SpeakerChange> focused on <Speech_Female> them in their stories <Speech_Female> especially <Speech_Female> elisa shapiro. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Heather long <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> an anti lowry <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> our website. This <Speech_Female> american life <Speech_Female> dot where <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> you can stream archive <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> of over seven <Speech_Music_Female> hundred episodes <Speech_Music_Female> for absolutely <Speech_Music_Female> free. <Speech_Female> This american life is delivered <Speech_Female> to public radio stations <Speech_Female> by p <Speech_Female> r x the public <Speech_Female> radio exchange. <Speech_Female> Thanks <Speech_Female> to my boss ira <Speech_Female> glass. <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> He has this special <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> way of testing <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> a microphone. <Speech_Music_Female> <Advertisement> Always the <Speech_Female> <Advertisement> same for the last <Speech_Female> twenty

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:08 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

"America keeps up and cost of living is evaluated. Salaries gordon is worried about friends her age. Who aren't getting big raises and have student loans car loans to pay off but actually some more inflation could be good for those folks to says. The university of michigan's betsey stevenson borrowers tend to be younger people in a lot of debt get helped by inflation if inflation goes up higher than what people were expecting. Well then what you end up paying back to. The bank is actually less. In terms of purchasing power older people and retirees by contrast tend to be savers. And they're much more worried about inflation says economist. John lear at polling firm morning console. Seniors and older americans are much more in touch with. What's going on on the price front. Anyone who's on a fixed income cares a lot more about inflation people at say who are working and expect some increase in their salary as prices increase the scary thing about inflation. According to the economists. I talked to ease if everybody starts expecting it to stay significantly higher than two percent the feds target that could become a self-fulfilling prophecy which could so economic confusion and disruption for years to come. I'm mitchell hartman for marketplace. I was talking to my boss today about one. We all might be coming back to the office and without breaking any confidences here. I'm pretty sure that i can safely say the tone of the conversation was yeah. I don't know. I mean there's delta first of all but also a lot of people and marketplace and everywhere are reconsidering that whole gut to go to the office everyday routine and.

betsey stevenson John lear university of michigan gordon America mitchell hartman confusion
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

WNYC 93.9 FM

04:45 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on WNYC 93.9 FM

"Another job. You've got a hole in your resume, sometimes a big hole. Now you multiply that whole by a pandemic and millions of people. That's a whole lot of spleen and people are going to have to do. And as we've been telling you, it is disproportionately women who are going to have those gaps in their resumes Women's participation in the Labor force right now. Is lower than it's been in 30 years. So from the workplace culture desk marketplaces Meghan McCarty. Karina has that story. Christian Carer used to dread those uncomfortable questions every time she applied for a new job, So they look at my resume and say, You know, I see that you have a three year gap here. What was that about? The Boston area data scientist had taken a break early in her career to get sober, not really something she wanted to discuss with the potential employer years later. I worried about it all the time. And honestly, I lied because I didn't have anything good to say about it so when the pandemic forced her to take another break from her career Care for her two year old and run a remote learning pod for her five year old. She was terrified. I literally thought I was toast. I had spent a lot of hours and time, like working to build this thing and that it was just gone. And I thought people were going to judge me. Absolutely that you know, I was the person who couldn't hack Working and a pandemic. That anxiety is understandable, says Michelle Keith, who runs a boutique staffing firm called Mama Up, which specializes in placing mother's She knows the difficulty. Many women experience trying to re enter the workforce after time away, partly from my own experience and partly from women in my community after speaking to so many of them, you know, with these incredible backgrounds, advanced degrees. Great experience, she says. Employers may have legitimate concerns about whether a candidate who's been out of an industry is up to date with her skills. But a resume gap, particularly for moms also carries more intangible baggage, not as committed. Are they going to take another break when they have another child? Are they going to be asking for more flexibility? All of these things? What happened during the pandemic could reinforce that stereotype. Millions of women did have to step back from work because of caretaking responsibilities, But the sheer volume of the job disruptions could make it easier for people to be open about them, says Catherine Fisher at LinkedIn. Before the pandemic. We know that the workers and women and particular were really fearful of discussing these gaps, and that it's really de stigmatize these career gaps. Lincoln has added a new option. Two profiles to help explain those interruptions. Members can specify that they were a stay at home parent during certain periods on their career timeline. It's a way to really characterize your time and what you've been doing while you were taking care of other life, you know priorities now. Traditionally, the idea of actually admitting to having life priorities other than work was kind of risky, says Betsey Stevenson, a labor economist at the University of Michigan. But the pandemic has started to change things. Our attitude about caregiving and managing our lives with work, I think has really been shook up as a nation. My hope is that there's a lot more empathy out there. But perhaps the biggest change going forward won't be in how gaps are perceived, but whether people will need to take them. Employers have learned something about the benefit of flexibility, giving people that flexibility so that they actually hold on to their job rather than taking those gaps rather than actually leaving. Boston data scientist Kristen Carer has definitely changed how she thinks of her covid resume gap. If somebody asks me what I was doing, I was a caretaker. I was a facilitator of remote learning, you know? I feel perfectly comfortable being honest about this, and it hasn't slowed her career down. She recently got a gig analyzing data for a health care company. I'm Megan McCarthy, Carino for Marketplace. Yeah. Coming up. It's sort of like a YOLO thing. Or, as they.

Catherine Fisher Michelle Keith Meghan McCarty Megan McCarthy Betsey Stevenson Kristen Carer Karina LinkedIn Christian Carer Mama Up Boston 30 years University of Michigan three year Two profiles Lincoln two year old five year old Millions Carino
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

04:31 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

"Laid off. Or if you have to leave the workforce and then you try however long. It is later to get another job. You've got a hole in your resume. Sometimes a big hole now you multiply that whole by a pandemic and millions of people. That's a lot of spleen and people are going to have to do. And as we've been telling you it is disproportionately women who are going to have those gaps in their resumes. Women's participation in the labor force right now is lower than it's been in thirty years so from the workplace culture desk marketplace's megan mccarthy carino. Has that story. Kristen carer used to dread those uncomfortable questions every time she applied for a new job so they look at my resume and say you know i see that you have a three year gap here. What was that about the boston area. Data scientists had taken a break early in her career to get sober. Not really something she wanted to discuss with potential employer years later i worried about it all the time and honestly i li- because i didn't have anything good to say about it. So when the pandemic forced her to take another break from her career to care for her two year old and run a remote learning pod for her five year old. She was terrified. I literally thought i was toast. I had spent a lot of hours in time. Like working to build this thing in that it was just gone and i thought people were going to judge me absolutely that you know. I was the person who couldn't hack working and a pandemic that anxiety is understandable. Says michelle keith. Who runs a boutique. Staffing firm called mom up which specializes in placing mothers. She knows the difficulty. Many women experience trying to re enter the workforce after time away hartley from my own experience in partly from women in my community after speaking to so many of them you know with these incredible backgrounds vance degrees great experience. She says employers may have legitimate concerns about whether a candidate who's been out of an industry is up today with her skills but a resume gap particularly for moms also carries more intangible baggage at not as committed. Are they going to take another break when they have a another child. Are they going to be asking for more flexibility. All of these things what happened during the pandemic could reinforce that stereotype. Millions of women did have to step back from work because of caretaking responsibilities but the sheer volume of the job. Disruptions could make it easier for people to be open about them says catherine fisher at lincoln before the pandemic we know that the workers and women in particular were really fearful of discussing these gaps. And that it's really de stigmatized. These career grabs linked in has added a new option to profiles to help explain. Those interruptions members can specify that they were a stay at home parent during certain periods on their career time line. It's a way to really characterize your time and what you've been doing while you were taking care of other life priorities now. Traditionally the idea of actually admitting to having life priorities other than work was kinda risky says betsey stevenson a labor economist at the university of michigan but the pandemic has started to change. Things are attitude about caregiving and managing our lives with work. I has really been shook up as a nation. My hope is that there's a lot more empathy out there. But perhaps the biggest change going forward won't be in how gaps are perceived but whether people will need to take them employers have learned something about the benefit of flexibility. Giving people that flexibility so that they actually hold onto their job rather than taking those gaps rather than actually leaving boston data scientists. Kristen carer has definitely changed how she thinks of her. Covert resume gap. If somebody asks me what i was doing i was a caretaker. I was a facilitator of remote learning. You know. I feel perfectly comfortable being honest about this and it hasn't slowed her career down. She recently got a gig analyzing data for a healthcare company. I'm megan.

Kristen carer megan mccarthy carino michelle keith catherine fisher boston hartley vance betsey stevenson anxiety lincoln university of michigan megan
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Newsradio 600 KOGO

Newsradio 600 KOGO

02:53 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Newsradio 600 KOGO

"Leisure and hospitality sector added, uh, 343,000 more jobs. It's more than a third of all the jobs picked up in the month of June. Or leisure and hospitality sector. Big deal. It turns out that you can find workers. You just have to pay a better wage than in the past that, according to economists, Betsey Stevenson, But the proportion of the population that's in the labor force is only at 61% that didn't budge. Numbers well below the 63% pre pandemic level. So there are people out of the labor force what they're doing, We don't know. And while they haven't gone back to work, we don't know. There's more money available to them to go to work tomorrow than there was before Covid. But for some reason, they have figured out a way to stay at home or they are choosing to stay at home until I guess conditions get better. I don't know how much more an hour you can pay people the average wage in America. This last week Record high $30.40 an hour $30.40 an hour. It was 29 35 a year ago. 28 51 pre pandemic So two and $2.50 now $3 just short of three, a dime short of $3. More an hour. More money. On average that you would get per hour if you got up and went to work tomorrow. Then before the pandemic, so something else happened. It's not dollars and cents. There was a shift in in the mentality. Of a goodly amount of people. About work. And not work and what they're getting for work, and I've been talking with a number of people. I've I've heard it a few interesting stories about people going through a what I would call a priority shift. Of how much they think they can earn. How much they want to earn and what struggle, uh, is to them. And, uh, I It's interesting. I am not fond of it. I'm a big fan of work. I think you know, work and the benefits of a hard day's work is what separates us from the Europeans. And what makes America exceptional. And also, you know, you get money for working. That's always a good thing. You can. You can be like the French and one and complain about how much money you don't get. But at the end of the day, you can make as much money as you want in America, Uh And, uh, that's always been an appealing thing for me. Uh And I I think that that feeling is is has been dampened. A little bit is beginning to dwindle. So I want to talk with you about that. That's all coming up next. It's the denial report. Lou Penrose in for Carl the Mile today, but first co goes real time traffic..

Betsey Stevenson Lou Penrose America $3 Covid 61% $2.50 June today 63% tomorrow three a year ago two $30.40 an hour more than a third last week first co 343,000 more Carl the Mile
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:05 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"The gains Speaking of the banks, the financials, can you get a nice bit into the banks if the yield curve doesn't cooperate, so let's talk about the yield curve. Five verses, 30 switch up the board a chart the top doubt back in late February. Just north of 160 basis points right now about 1 21 a severe correction last week and just a small bounce in the last 24 hours. We had Steve off the Federated on a little bit earlier this morning, talking about sticking with that long bank story, but he needs the yield curve to come with him for the ride and so far We have not threatened to take out those highs from late February late March. That's the bond market. Let's finish on crude, WTI and Brent a little bit later this morning. In about 45 minutes time, we'll catch up with Francisco Blanch of Bank of America. Talking about triple digit crude next year. $100 a barrel maybe right now TK on brand 74 52. We had a little look at 75. We've come back. WC 73 15 and down about 7/10 of 1% there as well. But that's the call from Bank of America, and it's a big one. Well, it's a big call based on GDP, John and then to be clear two years out, they come back to $65 a barrel because shocked microeconomics work supply comes on and down comes price that gets your attention in the equity market to let's talk about some movies. Second monitor Taylor Excite Taylor. Don. We tried to get Francisco on the show yesterday. They told us you stole him for the morning show. But that's really where I wanted to start that called $100 barrel. You be Avai, you add Trafigura. You have Goldman sort of all making these calls of $100 barrel is in reach. You're getting a lot of upgrades on some individual stocks, but you're not seeing the follow through. As we turn lunch too negative on some of the best performing stocks that we had earlier within that oil space, So let's look at a place where we are seeing some action. Norwegian cruise lines This is getting an upgrade Wolf on improving booking momentum, But that doesn't help the stock delta. We know that we're coming off of a really strong weekend. Within the travel space they are now trying to hire about 1000 pilots. You cannot get these people back to work. Fast enough, and finally we shifted. Perhaps maybe some of the meme stocks. We do this just for Tom. As we talk about fundamentals trying to register in additional share sale, RBC saying they need more cash. Not enough right now for Nicola and finally Let's take a look at MicroStrategy. What happens when you sell debt to buy Bitcoin? An average of about 37,000 Bitcoin? Big Twin falls to 32,000? You have a $77 million right down John on the balance sheet. Thank you Think, T k. It's got something to say about this. No, just to get a little bit coin thing. I mean, no regrets was on with some really important comments from her Qatar Economic Forum and John. There it is. It's It's critical support. A 29,000 print is a huge deal for Bitcoin. Take a tailor got up early crime, other show. Yeah. You're gonna do that China town this afternoon, probably with because that's it for me. I am. We're told a little bit later this afternoon. Every weekday. Very good job. Alright, Flight, insert the real yield there. And that's the price we pay for appearances. And, yes, Absolutely. Some of our contestants stay at the Essex house. Thank you. Right now, And this is really important. This is the interview of the day that links Chairman Powell to President Biden to all the politics of this nation. If you are ever so lucky at Wellesley College long ago and far away. You studied the Cobb Douglas production function with Karl case, and that was a special special thing. Betsey Stevenson of Wellesley and Harvard joins us now in Michigan Holding Court on Labour share. Betsy Labor share is a stunning trend from World War two. It's because of technology. It's because of productivity this that and the other thing are we finally seeing a Stasis or shift in labor share where they get back on board the economic pie. Well, I mean, I don't know whether we're going to see We have labor share Start to climb up. But I do know that What we're starting to see is a return to workers having some bargaining power, particularly at the bottom end of the income distribution. You know, their services are in demand all over the shop. Those are those help wanted signs you're seeing. And we're telling these workers, you know, Not only are your services wanted today, but they're probably going to be wanted just as much or more next month. So take your time. Pick your employer start listing your demands, and they're definitely doing that. That's why we're seeing wages getting pushed up at the bottom. We're seeing people quit jobs. We saw more people put retail jobs in the month of April than at any other time in the series history over the last 20 years. So workers definitely have some, uh in them right now, as you're using it and find a better place for themselves. Wells Fargo was just looking at nominal GDP over 11% 7.3% plus like a 4% inflation rate, and I get that's an outlier call and on there, But Betsy, the bottom line is when the fiscal stimulus drifts away. Nominal GDP comes in as well. Do you have a confidence that labour share increases can can continue? Well, I mean, I think that we're in the midst of a pretty great reckoning with how we've treated workers and how we've let inequality explode. I'm not at all confident that the market is going to solve that problem. I want its own and that we're going to see all of a sudden a rebound of the labour share of income. I'm not confident of that. I think we're going to need policy change to actually see some permanent real change done, But I think we are seeing What happens when we give workers some more power? Betsy? One of the reasons why you're so brilliant I love speaking with you about economics is because you dovetail the human behavior into it. That basically the choices that we make determine these broad macroeconomic changes and as we talk about the labor market shifts What kind of fundamental changes in behavior. Do you observe? Post pandemic about people's choices about where to work? How to work. How many hours to work? What are we seeing so far? So You don't Normally when we come out of a recession, everybody is worried that there's not going to be enough jobs. And so when you get offered a job, you just take whatever you get, because you don't know if there's going to be a job coming down the pipeline. This pandemic is completely different because we see that the economy is opening up and there's going to be job growth all over. So I think you see a lot of people being Willing to take their time. That's very unusual in a recovery, but I think there's something that is deeper than that. That's going on. Which is we've all had a really, really weird and in many ways bad Year and a half, and I think all sorts of people are stopping and asking themselves. Should I be doing something different? I think that happens in everybody's life at some point, but I've never seen it happened to a nation all at once..

Betsey Stevenson Francisco Blanch $100 Wells Fargo $77 million Wellesley College 32,000 Bank of America 4% RBC Harvard Wellesley late February Nicola next year Steve Tom World War two last week April
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

05:24 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell

"It does matter to an extent. Democrats would rather have the conversation be that. There's only a as you mentioned one political party standing between this major piece of voting rights and election reform legislation becoming law that the only thing standing between that and president biden's desk as senate republicans and the the senate filibuster as opposed to if they didn't get all fifty members on board if this failed forty nine to fifty one then the story would be. Democrats can't even agree amongst themselves to get a piece of legislation. That was much harder to make the case against republican so the likely scenario on tuesday if the keep john mentioned on board to begin debate is that this goes down fifty fifty that means it need sixty to move forward against fifty and then democrats have a decision to make. They will all be asked what their position is on the filibuster. Everyone of them is going to explain whether this support preserving that sixty threshold or abolishing it to pass this voting rights legislation. And it's going to be very very heavy lift. I should say to get off fifty democrats especially those onboard with new or significantly weakening. The filibuster t early next. Want to make one other note. The monmouth pull that you that you showed it had a fascinating finding which is that. It asked people. Do they want to pass They want congress to pass. President biden's economic plans as is or. Do they want them to cut them. Down for the sake of bipartisanship overwhelmingly passed them as it including about a fifth of republicans. That's interesting because that is what a lot of democrats are telling their leaders to do thing. Don't negotiate and water these bills down only to have a reduced. Bill passed without republican support. Any way that they're going to crow about interesting. I'm glad you pointed that out. So he'll thank you. Thanks to both the usa. He'll kapoor and so she hosa. Thanks for joining us. Coming up has the pandemic made you rethink your life. Choices your job where you live. How much you work traveled. How much time you spend with your kids or with your parents. If so you're not alone. There are so many people doing that right now that it could be driving the next big shift in the us to us economy betsey. Stevenson joins us after this. What the heck is going on with the american economy. Is it really recovering or is it just heading into an inflation abyss. Why are we not seeing that v shaped recovery that we were told we'd experience once the virus got under control. The fcc questions are different. Economists they will give you and sometimes contradictory answers in may the. Us economy added fewer jobs than expected yet. Employers are complaining that it's hard to find workers that's led republicans to blame the additional three hundred dollars a week that some americans are receiving enhanced federal unemployment benefits beginning this saturday. Another eight states all controlled by republicans will end those benefits or more than four hundred thousand people. There among twenty-five states led by republicans who are ending enhanced benefits early affecting total of four million people republicans claim the benefits are discouraging people from going back to work. But they're not considering what. Our next guest says is a psychological explanation. For the higher-than-expected unemployment rate betsey stevenson. Who served as chief economist. For president obama says we're in the midst of an enormous psychological reallocation of people and jobs like we've never seen before. The pandemic has empowered people to reevaluate. How they want to participate in the labour economy instead of working a low paying job out of desperation. Many want to find a job that they actually want to give it as the life's too short to be doing this job economy or take this job and shove it phase of this recovery joining us. Now betsy stevenson. She's a professor of economics. At the university of michigan she was chief economist of the us department of labor under president obama. Betsy good to see you again. You describe it at one point as a as a mixer you say in the new york times op ed. You said of it this way. The unemployed aren't leaving work. They're changing work and change. Takes time the unemployed and potential employers are like single people at a giant sir. There are lots of opportunities but most are unlikely to find the perfect match right away. What does this mean unemployed. The it had benefit has bought people a little time to reconsider. I think that's exactly right. But it's not even just sit there sitting at home reconsidering it did. It takes time to actually apply for jobs. I i've heard from lots of workers who are applying for jobs right now. They're just trying to find the job. That's good fit for their skillset. Employers are trying to find workers who are good fit for them and all these people meaty and figuring each other out and getting hired. Just take some time just the same way that you know you. Don't pick up a new spouse overnight. Actually kinda hard to pick up a new employee overnight and a lot of people. Don't want to go back to the kind of throw away jobs where we see extremely high turnover. Unit republicans are pointing to three hundred dollar payments. Those payments are going to end in like two and a half months. People know that they want a job that they're going to be able to hang onto in september two. They might take a little bit more time right now to find the right job and not a job that may even end before. September even comes around so more than anecdotally. We see as. I've been driving across america or or even here in new york. I see signs help. Wanted people can start immediately..

america congress September fifty sixty Stevenson fifty members betsey stevenson twenty-five states tuesday republican new york fifty fifty obama Democrats forty eight states september two more than four hundred thousan two and a half months
"betsey stevenson" Discussed on KQED Radio

KQED Radio

05:16 min | 1 year ago

"betsey stevenson" Discussed on KQED Radio

"Poverty. Ah, higher minimum wage. Here in Congress. There was a big movement to raise the minimum wage, and it will pass the House of Representatives because that's a majoritarian body. The question is, can it pass in the Senate? That's Cory Booker. I am one of the two senators from the state of New Jersey Booker is one of several Democrats promoting the raise The Wage Act of 2021. It calls for the federal minimum wage to more than double over the next four years to $15 an hour. I just think that this is a basic fairness proposition in America. Do we want people who work a full time job and touch extra shifts where they can Be below the poverty line. The current federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour with some exceptions for seasonal workers, apprentices and tipped employees. Someone working full time at 7 25 an hour 40 hours a week would earn a bit more than $15,000 a year, which is actually a bit above the official poverty line for an individual. Still the last time the federal minimum wage was raised was 2009. Meanwhile, as Senator Booker points out, childcare is going up. The cost of college is going up consumer products. Have gone up and this is the defining issue in America. We have seen the dignity be stripped from work, the security be stripped from work. We see more and more Americans having this feeling on both sides of the political aisle that they're working harder and making less. Support for a $15 minimum wage is extremely strong among Democratic voters, 86% in favor and fairly strong among Republican voters at 43%. But there is much less support among Republican politicians. Their primary argument is that a higher minimum wage would punish businesses, especially small businesses, and ultimately cost jobs. This debate has been going on for a good long while in 2013 President Obama took it on. Yes. Oh, there was a push to raise the federal minimum wage to 10 10. As in $10.10 an hour, Betsey Stevenson was chief economist at the Department of Labor under Obama, and in fact one of the things that President Obama did was raised the minimum wage for federal contractors because he had the authority. Then indexed it to inflation going forward. Stevenson also served on the Council of Economic Advisers during Obama's push for a broader 10 10 minimum wage, So she is familiar with the standard Washington choreography. There is a constant back and forth where Democrats point to the fact that people simply cannot live on the minimum wage, and Republicans point out that all sorts of people will lose their jobs because employers won't want to hire people at that new Higher wage. So Obama's bill for 10 10 failed in the Senate with minimal Republican support. Maybe it's useful here to have a bit of minimum wage history. The first minimum wage law in the U. S was passed in 1938 under Franklin Roosevelt during the Great Depression. There had been some earlier local minimum wage laws, which the Supreme Court had declared unconstitutional. But the court reversed itself in 1937, opening the door for FDR's federal policy. The original federal wage was 25 cents an hour, and it made the cover of manufacturing jobs. Over time, it was expanded to cover retail and service jobs as well as agriculture. And it's been raised during every presidency except for Reagan, Ford, Obama and Trump. But the minimum wage has never been indexed to inflation or the median wage. So its purchasing power starts to erode the moment it's raised, which leaves politicians to constantly fight over re raising the wage. What else would politicians do? Again. We're talking about the federal minimum wage. We happen to live in a funny country where for certain issues, individual states are free to charge forward with their own laws. We heard about this last week on the show with marijuana legalization. Since 14 2029 states have passed a minimum wage. That's anywhere from a little bit higher than the federal wage to more than double, with several cities like New York and San Francisco and Seattle, passing their own higher wage. So, with all that variation, all those natural experiments You think that economists could easily answer? The key question we all care about is a higher minimum wage on balance a winning policy. David Neumark is a labor economist at the University of California, Irvine. I took my mission as an economic researcher is to really try to provide the most solid and most objective evidence I can on policy questions and the ones I'm most interested in our policy questions. Relating to any quality really two.

David Neumark Betsey Stevenson 1937 House of Representatives Trump New York Franklin Roosevelt Obama Congress Cory Booker 2009 Council of Economic Advisers $15 43% 1938 Reagan 86% 2013 San Francisco The Wage Act of 2021
How the jobs report managed to surprise almost everyone

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:43 min | 2 years ago

How the jobs report managed to surprise almost everyone

"I will tell you what you can talk. Black swans until the cows come home. Those completely unexpected events often rationalized after the fact, there was not anybody who saw this morning's May unemployment report. Come and guess is worth for maybe ten million jobs having been disappeared last month. Instead we got two and a half million added back and the unemployment rate went down. Now everything is obviously not labour-market, sunshine and light, but today while surprising was progress. We marketplace's Mitchell Hartman to do some forensics for us. Let's start with this. Guy Adam Russillo. He's thirty four a dental office assistant in Austin, Texas the beginning of the third week of March and they let us know that just did a code. Nineteen would be closed in the office. Russillo got on on employment then in mid-may. When Texas started reopening, he was called back. It's great you know I. Much prefer the work, then you sitting around somewhere, not doing anything. Now multiply Adam ruffalo about two and a half million, and that's how you get a massive job increase in May with the pandemic still raging University of Michigan Economist. Betsey Stevenson says dentistry is actually a perfect microcosm of how service jobs are returning. It's business where people have to be face to face or mouth to sharp shiny dental instrument. The economy started open up. People went. Went Back to the dentist, so dense offices accounted for a full ten percent of the jobs gained last month, but still about thirty percent of people who worked at dentists offices before the pandemic so far haven't been called Back Stevenson says consumers are still afraid of getting sick and spending their money so dentists they are still not needing all their workers because fear and loss. Loss of income is holding back. Demand More than half the jobs that returned in May were at bars, restaurants casinos in the like jober swell us at our consulting saw the turnaround in real time, consumer activity stores opening TSA data and Road Congestion Control of which employs nearly implied the worst was behind us, and very modest recovery had started, but he says it could be. Be Years before people go back to eating out and traveling like they used to. And all those workers have jobs again. I'm Mitchell Hartman for marketplace one more thing coming out of Mitchell story for all the good there was in this report. It has to be pointed out that the black unemployment rate actually went up in May sixteen point seven percent to sixteen point eight. For a little context on why that is the reality in this economy, historically and present day I refer you once again. Mitchell Hartman, he has been burning the candle at both ends his

Mitchell Hartman Adam Russillo Betsey Stevenson Texas Adam Ruffalo Jober Swell Austin Michigan TSA
Coronavirus savages U.S. economy in first quarter; bigger hit still to come

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:15 min | 2 years ago

Coronavirus savages U.S. economy in first quarter; bigger hit still to come

"Begin today as I said with a little bit of cause and effect in which we pair this morning's report on first quarter economic growth spoiler alert. There wasn't any with this afternoon's press conference by Federal Reserve Chair. Jay Powell from the good people at the Commerce Department came data this morning. Showing Gross Domestic Product the sum and total of goods and services. This economy produces falling four point eight percent in the first quarter you dig into the fine print as we are want to do and you see household spending was down about seven and a half percent. Purchases of services fell more than ten percent. Business equipment spending fell more than fifteen percent. I could go on but I gotTa let Mitchell Hartman. Have a turn here. The economy was cranking along in January and February then in early March we started to hear warnings about the need for covert nineteen social distancing and statewide lockdowns. Initially that sent consumers out shopping to stock up including at Tom Butchers music shop in Seattle. You know they really wanted to get some music instruments toys. Maybe it's occupy themselves but by the middle of March. His store was shut down and most of our business just disappeared multiply that by tens of millions of businesses across the country and says capital economics. Paul Ashworth the economy just found for clear from we went from everything being enclosed. It's not just stores and restaurants in the like spending on healthcare is down to says University of Michigan Economist. Betsey Stevenson to make room for Kovic patients. Hospitals really had to shut down a lot of nonessential treatment. No keep in mind. These declines happened in the last three weeks of the quarter. The economic shutdown really took hold in April and Paul Ashworth predicts declining. The second quarter was much become the first quarter. We're thinking it's somewhere around forty percent on the plus side Ashworth notes. Some states are reopening. People are getting stimulus checks and unemployment and small business loans but that prediction of a forty percent decline in GDP. This quarter already includes all that stimulus money flowing in.

Paul Ashworth Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell Commerce Department Tom Butchers Betsey Stevenson Mitchell Hartman Seattle University Of Michigan
The Fed was unusually chatty Tuesday

Marketplace with Kai Ryssdal

02:01 min | 3 years ago

The Fed was unusually chatty Tuesday

"The marketplace number oh, the day this Tuesday is five five members of the Federal Reserve's open market committee. That's the one that gets to decide interest rates. Remember five of them gave public speeches today. And believe me when I tell you for the fed that has a whole lot of talking central bankers have non at least historically been the most say, what's on your mind group of people that has been changing those we've been reporting and as marketplace's Mitchell Hartman tells us today, it has potential upsides and downsides back in nineteen Ninety-six. Then fed chair Alan Greenspan, uttered, the words irrational exuberance in a speech investors thought he was saying stocks were overvalued and the market tanked, probably not what Greenspan intended. But he did want to be opaque, says economist Frederic Mishkin, who served as a fed governor in the mid. Thousands. Michigan says one time after testifying to congress. One of the congress, people said that was very clear and Alan Greenspan, said, well, then it must have been a mistake. But under the next fed chair, Ben Bernanke transparency and frequent communication became guiding principles. That's continued under his successors. If you can get the markets understand how you react to future events that can actually make things monetary policy of warfare, active. A lot of what current chairman Jerome Powell. Communicates says university of Michigan economist, Betsey Stevenson is to reassure us that the feds got. It's all on the ball and on the news. Oh, and they're aware that obviously, the trade issues had the potential to have a big impact, so they're watching it really closely chairman Powell does have to contend with one communications challenge. His predecessors didn't says, dean Baker at the center for economic and policy research, and that's a president who publicly criticizes the fed POWs going to bend over back. Quds to say, we're not gonna listen to the present telling us to lower rates not Baker says, if economic conditions warranted Powell won't hesitate to cut rates and explain exactly why.

Alan Greenspan Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Dean Baker Ben Bernanke Chairman Michigan Frederic Mishkin Mitchell Hartman One Communications Congress University Of Michigan Betsey Stevenson Quds President Trump