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"benedetto schwartz" Discussed on WRIR.org 97.3FM

WRIR.org 97.3FM

13:17 min | 3 years ago

"benedetto schwartz" Discussed on WRIR.org 97.3FM

"And joining us now is Jeff magic and regular contributor to the New York review books in a former economics columnist for the New York Times. He's the director of the Benedetto Schwartz rediscovering government initiative at the century foundation and editor of challenged magazine. And he books include age of greed, the triumph for financing the decline of American nineteen seventy to the president and his latest book is seven bad ideas, how mainstream economists have damaged America and the world. Welcome to background briefing. Jeff metrics today with in. So as we get into this new year. And of course, tomorrow, they never Croats will take over the house. The economy is being pretty shaky of late in the least of which is a government shutdown. And of course, the secretary of the treasury didn't help matters by talking to the six biggest Bank is reassuring us that there wasn't a liquidity problem when nobody said there was look. Any problem in the first place because guy? Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So in terms of the stewards of our economy. We know we've got a bunch of cranks and crackpots like Navarro and the TV guy, and plus we got this. I've known that TV guy for so many years, really. So nobody's minding the store rows economies guy the way he doesn't have an economics degree. I never even finished his masters degree. I'm told right, right? Well, it's the blonde that beat not bad. Not that having an economic makes you could economists. The the bottom line is it's the blind leading the blind here. So what your prognostication for where the economy is heading because if the economy as much as people wanna get rid of this dreadful president the one thing that he's real achilles heel, even with these base hockey's basis just in the FOX bobbling. They won't leave him at all. But about half of the people that voted for him fairly well off middle class, white Americans and them are concerned about that 4._0._1._K. I think yeah. Here's basically what I think the chance to the serious slimmed-down, which means will start growling gross will go down to two or even one percent a year, which would be quite slow and not enough to employ all the people who will be coming into the job market. But second I think there's probably one in three chance of recession. What's going on is several things? One is the rest of the world is slowing down including Europe. So they buy less from us. The economy is not producing productivity growth, which is source of economic growth. That is in simple terms. The amount that is produced per worker that has been very slow and people don't talk about it very much capital investment has begun to slow contrary to the promises of those is supported that. Really seriously wrong headed quite immoral tax Trump and the Republicans who said once business gets a big tax break stone investing. They bested for a few months allow that slowing down significantly investment. Was the only way you get productivity Russ. I'm sure I'm leaving a couple of other things have the final coaches that if we do have continued his will rise and that will upset the stock market even more and the stock market can have an effect on the economy because there was a so called wealth effect as you said anyone people worry about the 4._0._1._K's they stop spending as much indeed even business stop spending as much because the cost is based on their stock price. I know custom capital is now going up. So this is combining to be into. What could be serious? A serious obstacle to economic prosperity within three to six months, and some idea that Trump it keeps saying talking about all the great things. She's done for America. We'll have to confront reality. At that time. None of courses this training or his promoting. So I think there's trouble on the horizon. And again, I'm speaking with Jeff madrick and regular contributor to the New York review books in a former economics columnist for the New York Times. He's a director of the benefit Al Schwartz rediscovering government initiative of the century foundation and editor challenge magazine in these books include age of greed, the triumph for financing decline of American nineteen seventy to the president and his latest book is seven bad ideas, how mainstream economists have damaged America and the world. So. On the foreign policy. Horizon. Trump is just giving away the store in Syria to Putin. And God knows what he'll do. He'll probably end up pulling troops out of NATO, which be the ultimate gift to Putin. Putin runs a gangster state entirely dependent upon the price of oil. And I don't know why we even obsessive him quite so much, and perhaps I'm guilty of that myself. Let me add one other thing, you know. And when Trump talks about what a great leader Putin is wages have been declining and Russia for three years in a row, not just growing slowly, but literally declining. Sure and never seems to come up. Right. And he's on a paddock day because the the so-called pension reform where he's delaying the age of when you can get your pension is absent causing mayhem. So he's riding a tiger. They because the average Russian missed finally figuring out that all of the cream is being siphoned off by these crooks led by Putin, and there's just nothing left for the regular people. So, but I agree. Ben loyal prices are low right and heading down. So what about China, I know the Chinese leaders look over their shoulder around people? We always attributed that they're taking over the world. This certainly doing a lot of geopolitical maneuvers with debt traps where they get countries like Sri Lanka in. Debt on some big infrastructure project. And then they ended up saying, well, if she can't pass back will have a ninety nine year lease on this port as a naval base, etc. But let's talk about their economy because my understanding is a lot of problems the the stock market is more or less. A gambling casino had to be shut down. And there's massive unit. Municipal dead out. There is China the miracle that's going to dominate two thousand nineteen. Try hard to get real data on China people try they they they tried to go around the actual official data by talking to individual corporations, but businesses there, I think China, there's no doubt that China's highly-indebted and that could come crashing down is China miracle. It is it was a miracle. There's no question about it. How they push too hard and expanding their economies debt. I think they probably have they you talk about that traps that they're creating elsewhere in the world, not dissimilar to the debt traps. Wall Street created for some subprime mortgages subprime borrowers and America or you created for Greece Spain, Portugal Italy. So it's not an uncommon founded on common practice by the wealthy. But. Will they write it out? I would say they will probably ride it out. They have an obedient populous who does what they're told. If they're tells the type and their belts think. Well, so I think they will be okay. But I'm I can't say that with great assurance. So what then is the bright spot on the global economy or even on the domestic economy? The bright spot. You say, yeah, I'm I'm I'm trying to be a little optimistic because we tended to deliver relentless bad news. I think the bright spot will be if we don't slow down too much, and we finally kabosh on Trump's trade war. Those will be the bright spots in terms of areas of the economy that I think my take off and propel us to new highs certainly not obvious that high technology computerized boom was building for years and always look like the place that would be the source of robust growth. And finally it was beginning in the late nineteen nineties through the two thousands. We to the reason I brought that issue up in is that we to use that to grow the economy and the two thousand Greenspan wanted a housing, boom. And we we had a housing boom. But on the backs of the relatively poor which Obama did nothing. Who about which? The poor who lost their has is not protected by Obama. When I read it when I say, this financial guys like Paulson bragging about how well they did to save the economy, I get infuriated because they did nothing for those who are in debt. So I I think worry is appropriate right now. And I am one who is not worried about the economy per se when Trump took over because. Because the economy needed pumping up. It was dominated by steady. Even under Obama, sturdy ideas, not building up the federal deficit. But now, of course. It's gone too far the deficit is too big and it, and it's okay to borrow if you spend productively on things like infrastructure. Business spends on productive and productive areas. But that hasn't been happening. So generally speaking, I'm pretty worried, and even I saw a little bit of my small investment account. Let's see months ago. I can't say that. I quite see. A bright spot. I will say this headline ever one almost never sees the bright spot until it's here. So the bright spot in my Welby, the Democrats beginning to take over and my biggest worry because this is my biggest complaint. Big concern. Is that over was anyway that the Republicans with somehow undermined the social net in order to pay for this big tax cut. Now, I suppose the one bright spot is the democratic victory in the house will prevent that from happening. So I think social security Medicare Medicaid is protected. I think ObamaCare is protected because people like it. So I'm thinking on my feet as best I can hear you. But maybe the one bright spot is the people have to learn the value and are learning fabulous government Macaire. They actually like on balance. And I think maybe they'll continue to learn some of that if they learn that, and we begin most during our safety net taking taking care of our poor. And by the way, I'm writing a book about child poverty in America. And and did I say investing in infrastructure taking care of our poor most during our social that maybe we'll become a great country again to quote, our leader. But that's what it's gonna take. Right. And meanwhile, the government shutdown federal pay is frozen and federal employees Trump just took away a rice for all federal employees in the name of of dealing with the deficit. So he's a cruel, man. He's a cool, man. And is only one idea that which is to show his base when a guy is right and blaming Democrats is only strategies to plant. Right. Week and dangerous strongman, and I thank you for joining us. Jeff maverick. Thank you. And again, I've been speaking with Jeff madrick is a regular contributor to the New York review books and a former economic columnist for the New York Times. He's a director of the Benadryl Schwartz rediscovering government initiative of the century foundation and editor challenged magazine. And he's books include age of greed, the triumph of finance and the decline of America nineteen seventy to the president and his latest book is seven bad ideas, how mainstream economists have damaged in America and the world this is being background briefing..

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