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ALCS & NLCS MLB Playoffs Discussion with Host Adam Burke
...AdamatBangla All right. Gonna wrap this show up here at talking. Some major league baseball on today's program and LCS is set brewers dodgers ale. CS is set Yankees, Red Sox series. Prices also set out there in the marketplace. Gonna grab these from bet online right now. Give me the most prices that are out there. Dodgers minus one fifty, seven Astros minus one forty three. So it's Astros number is moving around a little bit here. I'll start with the dodgers and brewers because this one starts on Friday night. Astros Red Sox starting on Saturday night, both of my previous available over at the book dotcom. So make sure that you go ahead and check those out. First and foremost. I imagine a lot of people curious about what to do with their futures for these two respective series will start with the dodgers in the brewers. If you've got a dodgers future, let it ride. Let this one go. I know there's a perception out there about Clayton Kershaw, the game, one starter who will take on euless chassis. But you've gotta let this one go with Clayton Kershaw dodgers or a minus one fifty favourite for game one. I get the brewers at a better price for game two win beyond if the dodgers take care of business here in game one. Now, if the brewers do happen to win game one, I still do like the dodgers for the series. I- dodgers series price probably swings to minus one twentyish minus one twenty minus one, twenty five, something like that. But the brewers are gonna face a lot of lefthanded pitching in this series. That's been there weaker split over the course of the year. But the biggest thing for me is that Milwaukee's bullpen has worked eight ton of innings. When you look at some of the workloads, statistics, things like Dr Mike Soanes fatigue units. You've got a lot of red flags here for this Milwaukee Brewers bullpen. Furthermore, seven game series only two travel days. So you play to in Milwaukee travel to Los Angeles, play three in LA the fifth game, if you need. It then back to Milwaukee if you need to for game six and seven, what that does for the Milwaukee Brewers is it makes it difficult for them to use Josh hater a lot Josh or did not pitch back to back very often in the regular season. He did it maybe five or six times, obviously in the play offs, there's a higher likelihood that Josh hater does that, but the dodgers what do we know about the dodgers? What do they do really? Well, they work counts. They build up pitcher workloads vary significantly. So I think the bullpen attrition here in this series for the brewers is their biggest downfall because Milwaukee has a great bullpen, but that bullpens wanna to get a lot of work here in this series. One of the things about the dodgers that gets overlooked, especially when you talk about playoff time is that they work a lot accounts, which means you turn the lineup over a lot faster. They draw a lot of walks. The analytics based teams are paying a lot of. Attention to that third time through the order penalty. One is that mean for the brewers? Well, it means that if they get four, four and two-thirds something like that from a starter, it's going to be a big time boost for them. They're going to be very happy to get four and two thirds at a time from their starting pitchers there. They'll probably have a bullpen game or two at some point in this series as well, like the brewers attrition rate in the bullpen. Is this going to be way too high in this series and the dodgers don't have that same problem. You know you've got Clayton Kershaw. Yes, he's had playoff problems, but he can work deep into games. You trust him, hunt Jin Ryu. Does it walk anybody? Good. Strikeout rate this year did battle some injury problems. You can trust him to work deep into a game, Walker bueller. Maybe the best Ross stuff of anybody on that dodgers pitching staff, maybe the best raw stuff outside of Josh hater of any pitcher in this series, then you've also got rich hill who did struggle in his cameo appearance in that series against the Braves, what another guy that you can get four or five. Solid innings, oughta him in all likelihood. So the problem I have for a walk in this series, I think they're pitching staff is just going to get so overworked. And it already is pretty overworked because they didn't get a whole lot of innings. From the starters, in the regular season, they relied heavily on the bullpen. They've played a lot of playoff type games here lately with the the playoff race for the wild card in the division. Now the dodgers have as well, but the dodgers are much deeper team from top to bottom. So depth is the big factor for me here in this series. Also, the dodgers offense has gotten much better. They were very, very good in the second half the brewers got better in the second half as well. But I trust the dodgers a little bit more in the playoff run environment. They hit for more power. They'll draw walks hits or less. You get a lot less hits when it comes to the playoffs because you know teams defensively shift. You've got a lot more hard throwers that are out there. So you get weak or contact. But there. There is a correlation between playoff success and power. The dodgers have more power than the brewers in this series. They go on the road to Miller park, which that good hitting environment. So I do like the dodgers here and this is tough for me as somebody that has a Dopp did the brewers as a second team and as my National League team. But I just think if the dodgers have a lot of things that don't match up really well for the brewers here in this series, and when you think about the cubs and the head to head battles between the brewers in the cubs, I know that they won game one sixty three. The brewers have had problems with the cubs because the cubs walk a lot, and the cubs really only had offense this season when they drew walks. The dodgers will draw walks. They will get traffic out there. And again, the brewers are going to have some questions with how often they can deploy, Josh hater, Jeremy Jeffress looks like he's kind of running on fumes a little bit. I, the dodgers are a fresher team, eight deeper team. I- dodgers and six or so here is the way that I would look again if you've got. A futures ticket on either one of these teams with the dodgers. I think you wait, you see how game one goes, I think ultimately win the series. And again, dodgers World Series price probably in the five, six, seven, two, one ranch, something like that. There's very little hedging margin there because you will need to hedge in the World Series. So I think you have to let dodgers price ride here at least four little while and see how this series sets up. If you've got a brewers ticket, I would hedge immediately if they lose game one, they're probably, you know, you'll get the dodgers minus two hundred win the series. I would say. So you have to hedge the brewers right away in this spot. If the brewers do win game one, then you know you could maybe plan the other side of the dodgers, something like that. But I think you have to hedge this one right away because I think the dodgers are clearly the better team in this one. I, they do win this series. It was a five game series. Maybe I'd feel a little bit better about Milwaukee with the two off days in the five game series. More time to rest. The bullpen that luxury here in a seven game series. So dodgers for me in the senior circuit. Now, the junior servant with Houston and Boston. This price is too low. As far as I'm concerned, I think Houston is very clearly the best team in the American League and the best team in baseball. The dodgers are the only team in Houston stratosphere when it comes to being the best team in baseball, you look into this healthy Houston team. You look at what they've done since Jose altuve. AK back off the DL hopefully I'll do. They missed about a month. It was about July twenty for joint twenty. Fifth to August twenty first since the August twenty first return of Jose altuve eighty Houston. This twenty eight eight cross career has been banged up. George Springer was dinged a little bit earlier on in the season. You know, they had some pitching attrition where they had a few bullpen guys kind of in and out. You had Garrett Cole and Justin Verlander sort of coming back to earth just a little bit, but over the course of the season. I thought Houston was the best team baseball. I still believe that right now going into this series. I think Houston is the play in this series going there about minus one, four, eight, three or so out there. I think that prices a little bit too low. If Chris sale was one hundred percent, if you had Chris sale in full on game conditions, maybe this price is a little bit lower. Maybe my thought process changes a little bit, but with Chris sale pitching into the sixth in the division series for the first time since July very concerned about that. He cannot pitch three times on short, very camp. It's three times in this series twice on short rest. You'll pitch game one. He'll pitch game five. But you know, he's still not the same guy, not the same velocity, not as sharp to commands not a sharp, and that's the one thing that Boston had going for them is that Chris sales, a guy that can match up against Justin Verlander can match up against Garrett. Cole can meet that elite level that Houston's pitching staff is the Houston pitching staff was very clearly the best in baseball. This season from a war standpoint, ERA fifth, extra strikeout rate. They were clearly the best pitching staff in baseball, and it really wasn't that close. That's an important thing that consider here for this series. Is that yes, Boston was the best offense in baseball from a weighted on base average standpoint, best offense in baseball, right handed pitching highest average exit velocity right handed pitching by a pretty decent margin over the Toronto Blue Jays, but they're facing an elite pitching staff now and Houston brings everybody out throwing ninety five ninety six ninety seven gas kaikal. A little bit different of a guy there. He doesn't throw his hard, but the Red Sox have problems in that split against lefties. So Keiko's guy that can have success in this series. I like Houston. And when you look at Boston, when you look at the full body of work here, they had a good regular season, but also Boston was plus nine in base runs record. They played more like a ninety, three ninety nine and sixty three team in a context, neutral environment. So they did very, very well at high leverage situations, both ofensive ostensibly and defensively. That's something I think kind of rears its head a little bit when you face in the elite level pitching staff and elite level offense like Houston, you know, the Yankees were a solid team, but they were a flawed t. The other three teams in the in the AL east Baltimore was horrible. Toronto wasn't very good. The raise were solid, very solid team, but they didn't hit very well. They pitched very well didn't hit very well. So Boston's pitching staff, I think. Is is week. I think it certainly weaker than Houston's now faces a very difficult assignment. You know, David price say what you will about small sample sizes in the playoffs. And I try to caution against this Clayton Kershaw, but David price has not been good in the playoffs. He's your number two guy going up against Garrett Cole. That's a tough spot for you to be it. Now you've got Rick Courcelle. Oh, you've got Wordell Rodriguez. You bet. Nate jawohl d these are middle of the rotation types of guys. Houston has you know two and three starters after Colin Burland they have two number ones and then two and three guys after that with Kyko and Morton the Red Sox have won number one in sale and he's not even really a number one right now three in price, and then a four and five type guys in forsillo you volley n. Rodriguez. So just on that alone, Houston has the better starting rotation. They very clearly have the better bullpen. There's no question about that. Yeah, it's interesting that Cora was Houston's bench coach last year, and that was core, did a phenomenal job managing the division series. But Houston's just to talented there too good of a team. I like Houston, this series. If you have a Boston future, I would hedge it right away at the start of the series. If you've got a Houston future, I think you have to let it ride Houston and Boston both favorites over the brewers. In the World Series Houston favorite over the dodgers dodgers favourite over Boston. I think even though Boston would have home field advantage there, I would still favor the dodgers in that spot. So if you're looking ahead at possible matchups, that's how you wanna look at it. But I think that both favorites in this in these SU series move on, I think both favorites are lightly priced out there in the marketplace as well. So I do like a rematch of the twenty seventeen World Series twin Houston and the dodgers will see if that comes to fruition. I'll be doing my picks analysis piece each day for this series. So you'll be able to check that out over the book dot com. If you have any additional questions about the AL CS. L. c. CS hedging futures, stuff like that. Adam at Bangla book dot com or at skating, dry pods on...
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