Aired Last week 1:51
Australian Strategic Policy Institute Discussed on AP News
From the news
Aired 4 months ago 9:21
Kevin Rudd on the US-China trade war
Hello? From the news of the financial times and New York, I'm Amy keen today. We're looking at the rising economic tensions between the US and China. This year. The US has slapped tariffs on two hundred fifty billion dollars worth of Chinese goods. While the Chinese have retaliated with tariffs on one hundred ten billion dollars of US goods. It's an escalating conflict that's clouded, the global economic outlook. The f. tease Jillian had recently sat down with Kevin Rudd. He's a former prime minister of Australia and now president of the Asia Society policy institute, and they discussed the state of the tree disagreement and what it might take for the US and China to reach a truce. That's where I think concern right now about the state of the US China relationship. Do you think the current shadow boxing and the threats are a serious breakdown between the two, or do you think is going to be patched up very quickly? I think we're looking at a fundamental shift a be looking at this relationship for about thirty five years. But if you put together the US national security strategy of last December, the US defense strategy of January this she in the initiation of the trade wool. Vice president Pence is speech in October. It all adds sump to not just a patent, but a clear declaration, the industry GIC engagement, and the beginning of what's called now period of strategic competition that trade dispute Motte fund itself with some sticking plans to put across the top of it, come December that the rest of the relationship I think is in a whole new zone. How dangerous is that. The region immediately probably not. But I think it's important to stand back from the immediacy of events and see with his trend lines, taking us the United States in declaring the end of one era and the beginning of another. The end of engagement, the beginning of strategic competition. We've had conned of rules governing the behavior of the two states sets China in the United States which have evolved over the last forty years in this new period of strategic competition. We don't have rules if anything that that party countries like Japan or that Australia can do to either try and calm this conflict or anything they should be doing to protect themselves from it. The abiding principle of Australian foreign policy for some decades has been. We never wished to be engine into a position of choosing between these two elephants in the front living room. We have an historical strategic and security relationship with the audit states in China. Logitech economic power and by a country mile. So we'll be doing everything possible to actually ever be squeezed into a position of somehow making a foundational choice between the two. I think Japan ultimately would like to occupy similar space. Now, a number invested the vice boot by the rising tension in the u. s. China relationship, and we've seen it in the trades fair. Are you concerned that the next step would be a currency war? She didn't. The Chinese are going to be tempted to devalue. Could that even lead to a capital war on trade? We've seen images taken in the retaliatory measures also embraced by the Chinese on tariffs in the Stiller way to go on that. It's not in China's interest for this particular form of economic warfare to continue President Trump is correct in his analysis that this is much more damaging to the Chinese economy than it is to United States. Trade is a bigger proportion of Chinese GDP and Chinese GDP is small. The American GDP do the mats, it's an Xi Jinping's interest to draw this to a close. Their view, however, is that there's nothing possible to be done. Given the false start with three attempts so far to land this dispute over the last several months, they're going to wait for the midterms to be held, see who wins, and as a consequence of that or political negotiated, they're actually dealing with on the other side of the table. And will they be changes in the administration to the midterms? So these are key variables, but when push comes to shove Xi Jinping's aspiration, I believe we'll be to try and landed deal old a process to bring about a deal. When the two leaders mate, the margins of the g. twenty summit in Buenos Aires at the end of November. However, there's one factor. I think we need to consider its in President Trump's interest to probably to get the best deal possible and proclaim victory. We know he's very good at that the could he did with NAFTA. But if he emerges from the mid term. Politically damaged and with Mullah hanging over his head, the real dangerous. Many analysts would see it is that he's then in a position where he needs to continue to play the nationalist cod against China. Physically, he's then seemed to be weak on Russia post Muller, and that would not augur well for what should have been in other circumstances. A rational conclude to the trade spat come Christmas number people in Silicon Valley be struck by a recent book by I flew looking at the issue of AI and arguing that China has already got supremacy in the race over America. Would you agree? No, but he's wrought to point out that China's shall we say, grand strategy on a I is in place. It is a formal pronouncement of the Chinese state council. I think in April twenty seventeen to China intended to indigenously obtain the commanding heights of this particular category of new. Technology for the twenty th century. And frankly, other categories as will be owned a on in robotics. So China is throwing every possible resource at these. But the view interestingly is that if despite what could be a massive misallocation of state resources being thrown at St. industry policy at its research institutes at bringing back foreign talents to China and their own indigenous innovation. If it's that only ten percent of that works that puts them in Ohio competitive position against where the Americans now are. So the game ain't over yet. But China is in a more of a competitive position in my judgment than some of our friends in Washington or in Silicon Valley would currently conclude and just loved the anything you can see on the horizon that would stop this deterioration in terms of the relationship between the US and China at present the relationship and the American. Response to the terms of relationship present two sets of alternatives for China, capitulate. Or end up in a form of conflict, economic or otherwise over time, capitulate means adhere to the principles, processes and rules if you like. But if China doubles down and says, no, we're not doing that. Then we're on a road to conflict. So what's the third way through this? I think it's along these lines to China to embark upon a series of reforms which further opens up its economy that those reforms will not go as far as the United States and others in the west would expect. But we then see and stand back and make it inclusion of a time in Beijing and Washington as to which of these two systems ultimately prevails in delivering maximum economic outcomes for the countries and for the world. Namely the authoritarian capitalist model that we've seen Volve in China and the continuing liberal capitalist model. We've seen in the states and for the terms of engagement to be peaceful, but still competitive. Well, thank you Kevin, either. Incredibly interesting thought that I think story is going to get more and more intense and interesting going forward. So thank you for your time and best of luck within the Asia Society, both the institute for trying to figure out how the shed more light on these debates. Thank you. Thank you very much. That was Jillian, tat talking to former prime minister of Australia, Kevin, Rudd. Thanks for listening. We'll be back with another news feature tomorrow. But in the meantime, look out for our brand new news headlines show called f. t. news briefing which you can find all the usual podcast platforms and an exit up com forward slash news briefing.
Aired 2 weeks ago 58:49
Friday 1 February
You're listening to the monocle daily first broadcast. I February two thousand and nineteen on monocle twenty four. Live from Madari house in London. This is the monocle daily. I'm Andrew Miller coming up not so web Brexit goes from here, even if Theresa May deal passes when there's a new deal Brexit when the BreX is. No matter what the have been costs to convict those new passports had better be really exciting shade of blue British based businesses begin to cut their losses, and pack their bags also ahead. The United States suspends itself from the Cold War era, treaty, restricting American and Russian short and medium range nuclear missiles, Lebanon has the government after nine months of not having one. We'll ask what difference it will make we'll have a preview of tomorrow's foreign desk considering Venezuela and it being Friday night. It's the global countdown which finds out what they're listening to in the Netherlands if not necessarily why that's all ahead on the monocle daily live from London starting now. And welcome to tonight's monocle daily with me, Andrew Mullah the intermediate range nuclear forces treaty walls, when it was agreed by the United States and the Soviet Union in nineteen eighty seven seen as a potential beginning of the end of the Cold War. The documents signed by US, president Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev eliminated short and medium range nuclear missiles, thousands were withdrawn and or dismantled. The United States has today announced it is suspending its participation in the agreement with a view to withdrawing entirely in six months. The US claims that the USSR successes state Russia is in breach of the treaties conditions Russia as is traditional denies everything. Will joining me now is Tom Nichols, professor of national security affairs at the US naval war college and an author of no use nuclear weapons and US national security among other books, Tom. I guess the the big question I hear. Series is Russia actually in breach of the treaty as the US claims. Oh, there's no doubt about that. And of course, I don't represent the government here. But I don't think there are any real doubts that the Russians have been violating the treaty by testing weapons. Prohibited ranges, it's important to remember that the IMF treaty is meant to exclude weapons that will fall in a range that is too short to be intercontinental. But too far to be used as battlefield weapons and the Russians have clearly been trying to test either new weapons at that range or previous weapons that are within that prohibited range, so they're definitely within violation of the treaty. I mean, it's possibly full RA. Weird question to ask. But even if Russia is in violation of the treaty as seemed to be the case is the move America has made the smart one doesn't it just give Russia even for the licensed to do as it pleases? Right. The Russians I think that's a serious problem. The Russians have been doing this in my view in order to intimidate. Date the Europeans. The Putin strategy for years has been to say, look NATO doesn't really matter. The Americans don't care about you. We Russians can do pretty much anything we want, and this is testing these kind of weapons was a provocation because they don't really change the strategic balance of power anywhere. And I think part of the problem here is that the Americans at least this administration, and the Americans that are vising this administration want to get out of the treaty for reasons that are really unrelated to Russia, and so there's no plan being here. So the Russians have provided a convenient excuse the Americans are the ones that will walk out and the Russians will say, well, we would have, you know, been willing to talk about it since we don't really accept that we were violating anything. But since you've walked out. We'll just do anything we want. And I think it's just a dumb move that is I think reflects a lot of hostility toward treaties and alliances and multilateral arrangements. That is in. Endemic to this particular administration. So he's this in fact, potentially Russia's actual desired outcome because certainly in the way you've just framed it, it does appear defeating with something of a patent of Russia's behavior sort of pushing it the limits of acceptable behavior to see if anybody serious about stopping them. I don't think the Russians care very much one way or the other in part because the Americans have are not following up on this with anything. That means anything the people that should probably be the most worried are the Chinese because the Americans have wanted to get out of this treaty. Again, the Americans at least that have been pushing this have wanted to get out of this treaty because they think they need to do something about growing Chinese power in the Pacific. If there if the Americans had dumped this treaty and said, and we're going to take the following steps. We're going to improve NATO conventional capabilities or we are going to start building missile defenses or something. I think the Russians would have had a bigger I think all things being equal. The Russians would have said, you know, it's good that the American stay in the treaty and just let us do whatever we want. But that there were a lot of other options besides doing nothing and just dumping the treaty. But again, this is this administration has rained binary to foreign policy that doesn't have a lot of nuance to it. So if we buy the idea that Russia's behavior is the excuse rather than the reason for America appearing to prepare to exit this treaty ease their inaugural, a legitimate argument from the United States point of view that that Chinese expansion that you mentioned has kind of rented what he is a thirty two year old treaty signed when the world was a much different. Place somewhat relevant. Now the arguments about the Chinese threat, make no sense at all. Because for one thing it's difficult to know where to put these weapons if the Americans really want to talk about intermediate range nuclear weapons in the Pacific where exactly where they going to base them. I mean, when we had them in Europe, we had a network of alliances where we place them in the United Kingdom, Germany, etc. I mean, the Americans haven't even begun to think about you know, they've we've taken nuclear weapons out of South Korea. We're not going to put them back there. We're not certainly not going to base them Japan. There's some talk about putting them on submarines which makes them indistinguishable from strategic weapons. This is this is just dumping the IMF treaty was really a solution in search of a problem led by people in the administration who just don't like treaties. They don't like any kind of restriction on American action. And this was I think very much just an excuse to get out of that treaty and to to pin it on. The Russians who who are in violation. I think there's one other thing we should add which is at the Obama administration in just was didn't react quickly enough to this. They sort of kept kicking that can down the road because they had other priorities like the Iran deal. They assumed that Hillary Clinton would be the next president and that she would deal with it. And so this was left to fester for a while. Now here we are under a different administration that thinks that nuclear weapons are, you know, actual solutions to problems. Apparently, do you think it is perhaps possibly as simple as that? This is yet another manifestation of this administration's deep-seated atavistic even dislike of the idea that America is bound by any convention or treaty. Oh can be told what it can. And can't do by anybody. Well, it's a very unhappy. Coincidence of interest because I think that is true of this administration and people like John Bolton and the president himself. But there has also been a group of people in the American nuclear enterprise, the the I don't want to say military industrial complex, but that part of it that deals with nuclear weapons who have really been unhappy about the successful attempts of both Republican and democratic administrations to de emphasize the role of nuclear weapons in American security policy. And for good twenty twenty five years they've been pressing to put nuclear weapons back into kind of pride of place in American policy. And that was not something that the Bush administration wanted to do wasn't something. The Obama administration wanted to do. So now, we have this happy confluence of I should say unhappy confluence of events where the Russians are in violation. The Trump administration doesn't like treaties and doesn't like any kind of multilateral arrangements. And this group of people and experts and industrial concerns have figured out a way to get back in the game. Just as a final question on this thinned, the kind of weapons that the treaty banned in the first place those short to medium range nuclear missiles, you were talking about even if you can find somewhere to actually put them are the of a good for anything. Do they actually have any strategic us? No. And they're immensely destabilizing. The reason we had this situation in Europe was because in the mid seventies. The so. Oh, Viet's put in a highly dangerous class of these weapons as a means of menacing NATO capitals. And that demand that an American response even president Carter people tend to associate the President Reagan. President Carter actually got the ball rolling on putting an responding class of weapons into Europe and by the eighties. We were an incredibly tense, and unstable situation that those we in the Soviets wanted to get out of and thankfully, President Reagan Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev found a way to get out of this. Why anybody wants to replicate the mistakes of the nineteen eighty s is a mystery to me, but sometimes people just don't learn from the past till Nichols. Thanks as always for joining us tomes new book to death of expertise is currently available. You'll listening to the daily on twenty four. This is the monocle daily on monocle twenty four with me under Mullah. It's now fifty six days until the United Kingdom shed Joel to leave the European Union. And this is about all that is known for sure having had two and a half years to think about it. The UK's government is yet to make up its mind exactly how the UK will leave the EU while politics is an arena in which a certain amount of. Winging it is permissible even useful business is not and British business is growing increasingly tired of the ambiguous. Sees a new survey by the institute of directors suggests that fully one third of British businesses have made or are considering relocation provisions in a moment, we will be speaking about this to join joylin deco from the Evening Standard. But first we will hear from Bloomberg's Joe maze. Who appeared on monocle twenty four this week with some sobering research into Brexit's impact on the UK's economic outlook, suet densify eight areas where we've seen pretty significant costs already from this Brexit. Process and the point we're trying to highlight is that not so web Brexit goes from here, even if Theresa May's deal passes, whether there's a no deal Brexit, where the Brexit is overturned, no matter what the have been costs to the economy and has had eight errors identified we found the financial industry's been hit the broader economy, the pharmaceutical sex, that's been labor shortages, the media sector housing credits. Britain's states in the world these are all areas where we identified negative impacts from Brexit. Joe maze? From Bloomberg on joined now by joy deco columnist at the Evening Standard joy, the the this research by the institute of directors. What have we learned trying to depress everybody as little as possible? Well, th the IOT what's interesting about the institute of directors is it was actually a a leave institution and off to having evidence. And he's got about six thousand members which tend to be the small to medium businesses and taking some soundings for his members into candidate more closely. It's now become a remain organization or a at least could we keep this as close as possible to any you membership all strike mus- questions. They might usefully have asked before the vote year. Well, the the the the Trump was business people say over and independent mind, and at some point they were promised kind of lower taxes and also mazing new trade deals, and that's clearly not happening at the moment. The other thing about the surveys. If you try us businesses publicly what they think about Brexit most duck the question, and every often letter will appear in one of the newspapers with some major companies saying, we don't think this is a very good idea. But they've only done so under quite Giresse. And with some fair of leasing customers. The survey is an anonymous seven at that point businesses actually do start saying, well, we all quite worried about it will one in three businesses move. I think that's an expression of personal exile. She role than the actuality. But there will be a significant businesses have to do. Actually trade in Europe that all into be looking at whether at she based now can we even begin to imagine for what businesses such as those represented by the institute of directors must be saying to the government in private, and I. Well, I think that'd be having loss of very polite, but increasingly tents meetings, the ISD businesses probably aren't getting that much access because they're swollen medium businesses. The people who are getting access to the big businesses and the door will have been open to Airbus Hasidim saying will actually we might move. Jog your landrover will they'll be in a very tense meeting Jag, your laundry Iverson that she's Slovakia. I think we're going to go there Honda, another call manufacturer. Which would I mean, I think said publicly we would have to build pretty much the largest warehouse the world ever seen just to store. Two weeks worth pots in the UK. If the supply chains begin to go down because we'll breaking all you e you supply chains through customs union, that's quite a big warehouses bigger than Amazon warehouse will admit to our listeners that might my personal sympathies for the conservative party at the stage of limited. But just from the purely. Domestic political point of view. This is not doing wonders for their long treasured reputation as the party of sensible pro business, pragmatism an exceptionally good point. And. For some time. It is quite extraordinary to have any government inflict, this amount of economic home known economic home owner country willfully, let's learn a conservative government that has always been the party of business in from thatch. Ron woods is always said low taxes business business will do everything to make the business environment is friendly as possible. Theresa. May. It seems is in fact, an ideological Tori, RAV in a pragmatic one. Is there is there a pattern emerging about which countries and cities appear to be especially benefiting? Well, Frankfurt's been doing very well. So basically, there's lots of countries in competition for the banks and Frankfurt. So far is banged. I think when I checked in a couple of months go about twenty-five international banks of relocate relocating from London. They got about eight hundred billion pounds of capital heading into the country and out of hours, by implication. Amsterdam has got fantastic sort of fiber optic networks is got also licensed cream is good to lovely lifestyle. Lot worse. It's got a number of media companies already there including net flicks and the British again, these often global companies which need which based in London. So they can get rights to operate within the EU. And they said a we'll hang on second. Why the hell CNN's Lynn what? Would we stay in London? Did it's going to get rights again. So they will then be looking at which other countries goatee, and I would say media, I'm Saddam has place go, and then Dublin is doing a very good job of keeping up. It's going to back office possibilities to turn into full businesses. But we will we'll talk more about the implications for the media shortly. But among the companies relocating, at least in part is this one moment, call has recently announced new business plans. The magazine will move its printing operation to Germany on. Tomorrow's edition of the stack are editor in chief Tyler Brule. We'll be explaining more to Thomas Edwards in this country. I think Brexit is going to be very interesting to watch how that plays out for just for media companies and not just print. We've just made an interesting announcement. So I think maybe this is the first time people be hearing Trump's microphone, we're moving all of our print operations to Germany. So this all remains, but we are taking all of our print out of the south west of the UK and moving. To a very good facility outside of Hamburg, and partly that is a huge part of it is, of course, is Brexit and the logistic challenges that come with it. But I think also the readers will notice that it is going to be a vastly improved magazine as well. Because also we're moving to a printer which is invested in print. They've got amazing new machines. And so that's that's exciting. And I think that that's going to offer bid if shakeup in terms of quality. And maybe where people are based moving hearing that the likes of the BBC Tom are thinking that, you know, should they be putting some offices some divisions, especially for IP reasons outside of the UK that was editor-in-cheif taller Birla. There'll be more on the stack at ten A M tomorrow, joy, we were talking briefly before Tyler about the potential impact. This could have on the British media. But is media going to be more impervious to the urge to move ills with most business because British media by definition kind of has to be based in Britain doesn't well. That's correct. But. You say you almost have to divide almost everything we do in to it, which includes the banks and businesses manufacturers into right? What's going? What's national interests, Watson international interest? And who were the kind of risk who the kind of equipment to the hedges who at she enjoyed the Tomlinson for whom whatever happens next as you can enjoy it. So in terms of businesses. Yes, absolutely, no reason for the Daily Mail a British newspaper to touch sentence right there. So we are going to be stuck with the Daily Mail, but the CNN as what I don't know about the BBC is, you know, what happens to the BBC world because again that's going to need broadcasting licenses within the EU does become more logical for BBC well to be based in the EU, and when we start talking about BBC moving out of the UK we'll sections but moving out of the UK, you know, we're we're basically losing all on national treasure. I'm that's the level of. Infliction of on national identities being taken away from us in order to continue business. Any argument that London will still remain such an inescapable center of gravity that you can't leave it? Because one of the reasons that London has become self-sustaining media hub is that because London is such a huge media to everybody who wants access to the media has to come to London. And I'm afraid that actually think that's true in the long run. We have the advantage of English, and I'm going to say against sadism, Saddam. I'm stem can easily broadcasts anything it won't sit English. We do have some massive global media companies which include the BBC the guardian that has international rations and the Daily Mail, but do you have to be in London? Do this stuff. All Ghibli no occupied. You know? This isn't a nice little upstart politico EU, which is based in Brussels doing great business from them. It's go to London office. But it's still an EU Centric publication, and that will grow and the German newspapers at dinner, they can start translating into English. But I I. I say this upset no certainties anymore. And this is going to be a slow diminishing of London over the next five ten years drawing. Decode thanks as always joining us. You're listening to the daily up next Lebanon now has a government, but is Lebanon. Governor bull. Russia is a large and unwieldy beast. But in recent decades, it's been tamed by President Vladimir Putin whose deathly tightened his grip on power to find more about where Russia funds itself today from its soft power to its economy, watch animated nation survey playing now in the film section hat. Monocle? Don't con-. You're listening to the daily on monocle twenty four nine months during which Lebanon did not have a government caused an amount of surprise to Lebanese on a way or unconvinced. They'd had one in the first place. The vacuum has now been filled. The no guarantees are on offer to anyone listening to this podcast, and he laid to the Nabet midday tomorrow, Prime Minister Saad Al Hariri is taking his third crack at the Joel bent has assembled a thirty person cabinet from among Lebanon's perpetually querulous factions, including the Iran backed Shia party slash militia has below earlier I spoke to Monica Beirut. Correspondent Lizzie porta? Without government for nine months now since there were elections in may last year, the main problem after that off to the elections took place disagreement among politicians sectarian on along sectarian lines. And among the political blocs about who's represent teach ministry who should get who should sort of control, the the health ministry, the interior ministry, according to the different blocks and parties that make up the national unique of them. They call it here. The main issue was a group of six pro Hezbollah Sunni MP's, and obviously has a Shia party, but it has crossed sectarian support. In some areas that are SUNY MP's who support has beloved because of. Because a lightning interests and the. Hezbollah wants to this group of six Sonam piece to be represented in a way that they wanted them to be in the cabinet and other politicians were unhappy about this. So that was lots of wrangling there were other issues as well about who was going to get various portfolios. And so this this took a long time. And this isn't the first time this has happened, though, we go to sort of put this in the context of Lebanon, going long periods of time without the government and people here not really surprised that this happened. They will straighted and exhaust rated. But this isn't a surprise for them during the nine months that Lebanon didn't have the government, and especially as you correctly point out. This is far from the first time did anybody really notice. Did it have any discernible effect on day to day life in Lebanon? I mean, the the economy continues to rainy rainy struggle because there's without. Government to without government to pass laws. They want able to implement reforms which must be needed to unlock eleven billion dollars worth of investments loans that were promised last year too big investment conference. So the economy is continued to deteriorate laws haven't been able laws have been passed. But people do really just go on with their lives. People gets home with things as much as they can wall. Spink credit frustrates the day kennel the two. Nothing big can really happen in terms of policy new laws in terms of. Pushing through reforms. So if we look at this nail from the perspective of Prime Minister Saad El Hariri, and this is of course, far from his first rodeo as well seeming, he can keep this coalition together long enough to actually accomplish anything. What does he actually want to accomplish? They're very things. So the first thing is bolstering the economy, which is is really flagging. And I it's sort of expected to grow by the center for year. But it's there was massive public debt. It's one hundred and fifty percents of GDP, which is one of the highest in the world among Greece, and Japan, I think and so that's one thing. There's also massive reform needed in in terms of IT and communications the on youth unemployment. I know that the. That they're really pushing torn get jobs job creation, and waste management is another big thing. But these are things that should happen. But when they actually happen is another thing. And I think Lebanese people have very just the disillusioned, and they don't really have much faith that the politicians will will really do any of these things that they really need to do and Lebanese keep leaving the country. You know, that that will take as new figures released recently that twenty thousand people left the country lost is this big brain, drain. What conclusions will Lebanon's neighbors in particular draw from the composition of the new government? Especially those neighbors. Notably the one to itself who who might be on the impressed by the prospect of Hezbollah having significant influence. Yes, the the Israelis will I I'm not sure they've come out with with much yet. They did particularly resp-. They they've been distracted with the completion of operations against Hezbollah in the south that they've recently undertaken to destroy Hezbollah tunnels. And with an interview this Hudson the stroller the leader of Hezbollah gave last week. I think they. Yeah. They will they they won't be happy. They will continue to lobby America to put pressure on Lebanon to diminish Hezbollah as influence, the US and Israel. We'll be concerned about Hezbollah's control of the health ministry, while the new health minister isn't actually a member of Hezbollah which has I think been done deliberately to try and less than any precious that the US and Israel might might place on the country. They appointed the sky, and it was reported that he was actually has his personal doctor at one point they. America has made it quite clear, the terrorist financing moles that America says placed on on Hezbollah members and a lot of sanctions on on Hezbollah and Iran in the post year, they they've been quite clear that if there's any evidence that the health ministry is being connected to financing Hezbollah's activities that they will have I think the quite well significant problems with this so. Yeah, Israel and America will be keeping a close eye on Hezbollah's involvement in in the eleven government Lucy border in Beirut. Speaking to me earlier, you're listening to the daily here are some of the other stories we're following today. Many food and drink brands in France have become abruptly more expensive as a new law on food prices comes into effect the law holds at the produce of big brands can no longer be sold at cost price the retailers profit margin must be at least ten percent. It is hoped that this measure will encourage the purchase of own brand goods, which often come from small producers. It remains to be seen. However, how popular this will be among the angry divorced dads in high visibility vests who have recently been blocking French thoroughfares in the next citing preview of the fresh hills to follow up to the UK actually leaves the EU the UK in Spain have been conducting what will doubtless not be the last row concerning Gibraltar British officials noticed that in a EU legislation intended to enable visa-free travel for UK citizens to the EU after Brexit Gibraltar was referred to as a colony of Britain, which in fairness to enraged, British mandarins. It most assuredly is not the EU document also referred. To controversy over the sovereignty of Gibraltar, though, there is none onto to itself in a referendum in two thousand and two Gibraltarians voted to stay British by a margin of ninety nine percent to one and to the inexpressible delights of composers of news bulletin seeking an end finally item. The Michigan town of hill has been consumed by the FIA some cold snap currently besetting much of the United States. Which means that. Yes. Hell has frozen over. This is the monocle daily. You are listening to the daily on monocle twentyfold, the organizers of the Victorian prize for literature in astray Leah face. A logistical issue with conveying the one hundred thousand dollar purse to the two thousand nineteen winner bay Bhutani an Iranian Kurdish asylum-seeker currently resident in a detention center on Manus Island in Papua New Guinea Pachon, the also on the twenty five thousand dollar prize for nonfiction at the Victorian premier's literary awards these both for his book, no friend, but the mountains a were he composed by text messages in Persian sent to his translator shawny I entered strenuous asylum system in two thousand and thirteen disgust. He's curious case earlier with monocle Georgina Godwin, Kiara Ramallah and Ben Ryland. This is has not so surprising coming from this side of the publishing spectrum. Anyway. So Victoria, obviously leans a little bit to lift, well, maybe a lot of the left as of the law state election, quite dramatic has. Indeed. Indeed. So it's perhaps not surprising to see this sort of statement popping out. Of victoria. But I do think it is a very healthy won the debate over asylum seekers and astray these immigration policies, which are of course, quite shamefully seen across the world in Australia is a very very reluctant debate for anyone to have an, unfortunately, we do have this confession of the idea of what constitutes border protection with how we should detain people who do come to a stray Leah by boat. The argument is that if you sail to a stray Ilya by boat, and you try to to to obtain asylum that way, then you will never ever be eligible to be resettled in a stray. Ilya the reasoning being that that then destroys the the allure of stralia from the perspective of people smugglers and travelling to Australia by boat is a very very dangerous thing to do. So there is an argument to be made about wanting to destroy the people smuggling market the beat question, then comes up when we ask what happens to those people that we do detain. We can't just lock them up forever. That's what's happening. Now, you've got. Definite detention. And that's that's what's happened to the ruse Bhutani. There's no light at the end of the tunnel for a lot of these people. And you've got you've got children locked up in these centers as well. It isn't absolutely hopeless horrific set of circumstances. Most of most Australians don't want to have this debate. And if it ends if it ever gets brought up politically, it's usually in in the context of well, if we change anything at all you're going to have the floods of people coming back to a stray, which is what happened when Kevin Rudd tried to change it as prime minister for for a while. And that has simply brought both sides of politics to the exact same position on this. And and until we can separate these two things until we can say, yes, it's true. We we need to make sure that we destroy the business model people smugglers. But at the same time, we can't do that at the expense of people's human rights until we are at a place where politically that sort of argument can be put to the Indian people. None of this is going to change. I hope that the awarding of this. Of this literary prize to Bayrou's the Chinese going to put that debate back in the public the spectrum. But unfortunately, we've got an election coming up in probably around may. And that's not going to be one of the issues. That's going to be voted upon certainly notes. Kiara does a gesture like this. This is not to detracted old from whatever literary merits bears Chinese book my possess. I I have not as yet read it. But does something like this actually advance a discussion about this or any other issue or does it just become yet? Another flashpoint around peop- around which people. We'll just loudly yell at each other. What they already felt anyway to believe that culture can have some degree of influence people's perception of things and again apologies. If I keep comparing these situations with my own home country, very reason. Con contradiction. In terms is going on in the Italian media as well, very popular crime series, cold Montalban, oh is soon to a with an episode dedicated to migrant boats, and this is a huge, but it's cool topic right now in Italy. And the very FOX that we don't even know what denial of the episode is going to be a very that. This this very popular TV show. It's it's tweet. Should it's popular across the political spectrum will even tackle this issue has created enormous debate in in the media. So I like to think that cultural artifacts that can be approached and and feel parallel to the normal political debate ten touch people in different ways. So I don't know if they will shift policy, but I like to believe that they can have effect on people who wouldn't normally be receptive to certain degrees in certain themes, drew from the point of view of a non astray. Alien such as yourself. Does it strike you that whatever you may or may not think of stray Leah's asylum policies in this respect, it's it's handled the messaging badly because this is the thing that occurs to me at least in it doesn't get covered. Certainly in the international media is that stroll, you're actually does okay. In taking asylum seekers and refugees in two thousand and fifteen sixteen. It was thirteen thousand seven hundred fifty an additional twelve thousand from Syria and Dirac, whereas the the view of a struggle that tends to get projected Czyz of this absolutely rigidly inhospitable place. You might wasn't aware of this is an indeed I'm surprised I just do here. The general media view that Australia has this blanket policy that nobody gets in an I think awarding a prize light. This is useful. Because it highlights that message. It gets the discussion going it makes fucks like come out more. But I also think that we're I an Australian writer, I might be slightly dismayed by this that in fact, somebody who was not eligible in any way for this prize one it I haven't read the book, it might be a fantastic piece of lich drive. No doubt that it is it wouldn't obviously have one. But of course, there's got to be a little bit of politicking behind it. If you look at 'em. So on the shortlist was Gail Jones who quick plug for the program. Meet the writers previous guests, also Kim Scott who's also been on the program. Now, he's an indigenous Australian writer, and it's very vocal for for indigenous people in Australia, and I think that there is a lot of work to be done in highlighting that section of literature perhaps before going on to to. The things that really can't be changed. Georgina Godwin, Ben Ryland and Kiara melody speaking to me earlier, you listening to the daily do stay tuned. Tomorrow's edition of the foreign desk. Takes an extended look at Venezuela a country, which has recently suffered shortages of many Staples. But now has a surplus of at least one commodity presidents increasing numbers of countries, including most of South America giving up on dubiously elected incumbent, nNcholas Maduro, and recognizing the leader of the national assembly. One Guido the has been further talk. However that this may not be the limit of foreign intervention in Venezuela in this excerpt from the program, I discussed the long and launch Lee inglorious history of the United States meddling elsewhere in the Americas with a journalist Stephen Kinzer, author of overthrow. Well, first of all if we go right back to the beginnings of the American experiment. Why was it decided and by whom and for what reason that what happened south of the United States was was any of the United States business? First of all the limits of the United States were still unclear in much of the nineteenth century. There was a lot of talk about the United States and next thing Canada. A next thing Cuba, Haiti Dominican Republic, even Iceland Greenland. We were still figuring out how far we wanted to expand. Then particularly at the end of the nineteenth century when the idea of building a canal across Central America became more realistic, we developed this idea that we needed to control everything all the sea-lanes and all the land approaches that would lead towards the canal. So we use that as kind of the first strategic excuse for our decision to turn the Caribbean into essentially, a United States control Blake has the interest of the United States. And the the zeal with which the United States is pursued it in central and South America has it always been purely economic has the. Being any kind of ideological or altruistic aspect to it. I would say the economic mode of has always been very important. It's very urgent for American governments to believe that US corporations can work freely under the conditions that they set in all countries around us, and when governments emerge in those countries at want to restrict US corporations and limit their ability to buy land and escape taxes and not glib up to labor laws that's considered an affront to the United States. But we have also used other excuses. I do believe that we convince ourselves sometimes that we could face a strategic challenge from the Caribbean. It happened, of course with Soviet influence in Cuba. And we are now hearing that one reason we need to confront Venezuela. Is that the Chinese and the Russians might be in there? As for altruism. I think the humanitarian motive is usually used. To cloak other more, urgent reasons and the reason that a cloak is. So successful is that Americans by nature are very compassionate people. We hate the idea that anybody is suffering anywhere. Our leaders know this about us, and whenever they want to intervene in another country for any reason, they always say that it's to save the suffering people there because they know that a little bit like children, we rush out to help those in need without stopping to think. Whether our help is actually going to produce a positive result or just gonna make situations worse looking at it from the point of view of the United States, though, again, however cynical the motives have any of the interventions being noteworthy really disastrous or embarrassing for whichever American administration Oded them. Yes, I'm gonna just site. A couple of them over a long period of time. So in one thousand nine hundred nine the United States overthrew the twentieth. Century's first liberal government in Nicaragua. So President Zelaya who we overthrew had been educated in Europe. He came back with this idea of creating capitalism in a country that was largely futile and was a great reformer. But being a Representative of Nicaraguan nationalism, he crossed swords with the United States. So we had him overthrown and ever since then all efforts to try to create capitalism and real rooted democracy in Central America have been seen as threats by the United States and then half a century later almost in Guatemala, the United States launched one of its most devastating intervention. So in nineteen fifty four the CIA intervened in quantum Malla to overthrow president. Jacob. Oboe arbenz. He was a dynamic reformer who had passed a land reform law which affected the interests of the United fruit company. We saw him as hostile we went in and overthrew him and since then Guatemala has never recovered. So they went to a thirty year, civil war indirectly as a result of our intervention. Two hundred thousand people or more were killed. That's more than were killed in all the rest of Latin America combined over those thirty years in political violence. So the Guatemala case is among the second half of the twentieth century among the interventions that was most devastating and one for which the people of that country in that region are still paying heavy price. Just finally at the risk of tempting fate when we sort of look at what may eventuate with regard to the United States in Venezuela. Is there any indication that the United States has learnt anything from its misadventures in central and South America. Has its style of intervention evolved at all well over the twentieth century, we did have one big change in our style of intervention up until the period after World War Two we intervened directly. We would just land the marines after the second World War. We had the CIA. So we began to intervene in a more subtle and in different ways. But I do think that overall United States intervention in Central America has been a series of repeated failures. So not only have we not learned from our mistakes, but we're actually doing the opposite. It was amazing to me to read that the person now appointed to direct our effort to overthrow the government of Venezuela. Elliot Abrams is the same guy that I watched promote the contras in Central America and defend genocide in committed by our allies in Guatemala back in the nineteen eighties. Nut somebody with the same approach or the same point of view the. Same person. So this to me is a very depressing answer to your question of whether we have learned anything that was Stephen Kinzer whose book overthrow a recommend haughtily complete episode of the foreign desk, which I also recommend haughtily premieres tomorrow at midday London time, you kind, of course, catch up with that an Olero the programming anytime you like on a website, or on itunes and so forth. This is the monocle daily up next the Asian newspapers, do stay tuned. Being pumps seems like a dazzling lavish lifestyle, right? Have you ever wondered how your favorite pop song was written? Right. And in the bus with my housemate sat on the toilet technophobes. Or who that song was really intended for writing love songs in Spanish, I say pathetic, sad things, and it would be a secret from the audience and also from the person that I was writing about join us on the sessions Midori house each week where we bring in a wealth of musical talent to perform live for us and reveal a few truths about making music and keeping your ego under control, well, sometimes unconsciously comparing myself like a jackass to McCartney from electro pop to indie rock and with plenty of soul to boot. Tune into the sessions at majori house every Saturday at eight fifteen London time for lessons in stardom and a soundtrack to kick start your weekend. On the daily for look at the Asian newspapers. We're joined today by Dr woo DEA, a research fellow at the Asia Pacific program at Chatham house. We start with the South China Morning post attempting optimism, I think he they're saying they're the US and China may seek to extend the trade war truce. I'm quoting the Sunday before Donald Trump and Jeison pigmeat to finalize deal. Does this suggest that the whole thing has been a bit of a phony war? And everybody's basically realize that old alone is he's the art of deal firstly a here. The soy in the ball room by saying this is something fun going to come over. When no twenty seven days, a nobody exactly know what will happen. But shortly we should know as both sides scaleback, Vic spectating and how much deacon expect from each other. But is this going to end up being a yet, another demonstration of the recurring pattern of Trump's leadership that you know, you create the problem you then solve the problem and therefore and then claimed credit well for him. Is whatever's good full press release, and therefore definitely good be for Donald Trump moving along to story from friends, Nick, a this is a well, it's wretchedly depressing. It's the story about China's biggest ride hailing startup DD as it's it's generally known. It's it's having to lose three thousand jobs as the story says in an apparent attempt to offset the damages from the mud as of two passengers lost. You. Revealing because I mean, only one hundred William breezing this whole notion of shared economy, but on the other we haven't really coke late into unintended consequences of the damage has been done. You know, four billion remember loss for the first half months to eighteen that's a big number. It is a huge number. What has actually gone on here, though, is this just a case of over exuberant early expansion, and therefore they've just been allowing any Yahoo showed up to drive one of the cows depresses more about the China's economists slowing down the consumers spent less okay, moving along to the Straits Times. This is another Chinese automotive story. It's an interesting one because China has been attempting to sort of create an hopefully export cause of its own. They have endured an amount of mockery. I think it's fair to say in in international arenas for for looking a bit. We'd all looking like more often. Looking like slightly ham. Fisted copies of already extant Japanese American or European caused, but this is suggesting that some Chinese manufacturers are trying to get around that by hiring British designers, but having the British designers, but also have the British engineers. I mean, perhaps that will be very good news for those who embracing the so called global Britain because Gilligan to expend the UK studio was one hundred designer which is big shop. I mean. Yeah, there's there's there's a couple of lovely historic lawyer knees detailed here. It makes the the point that the the same that built. Chairman mouse, red flag limousine is hiring one Giles Taylor. Previously known for creating vehicles such as the Rolls, Royce, phantom, eight and columnists UV, maybe. Unrequir- engineers, you know, as those this go back in China, then perhaps they can all go to Gillian and go to these oval. We've we've done enough to pressing autumn's tonight about the possibility of tunnel. Talented people queuing up to flee the United Kingdom. Let's go finally back to the South China Morning post. This is a this is a really great story. Great. It's it's not great as Woohoo. This is good news. It's just a an interesting indication of a a slice of life in China. And how the economy is affecting tradition. Really shows the party controls everything. Parties house you hominy wedding us. You can invite white on how much you can spend on your wedding presents an home much. You can cost for a bottle of wine offer to guest. I mean, this really shows me the pony has already taught group on almost everything including every aspect of newly wet life. Because the story we should we should say is that the one one Chinese city. This is per Yang in central won't to cap. What is called the bride price, which is which is as I understand it. The amount you need to the family of your intended. As for the groom is busy for the groom to show a have this prosperity. You know, I can I can guarantee a wonderful life for my future bride. So so the going to cap this. Seven thousand four hundred fifty US all the equivalent they arrived. But of he going to learn the inevitable. Listen about what happens when you try to fix the price of something less than people are willing to pay for it. Secondly, I think is also how we consider into the inflation. And how about if the property price begin to crumbling in China did like a couple of a usually object virulent too. If that's even would I'm pretty sure it's not, but it's light to newspaper articles picking quotes off social media. But I do quite like the one that they have chosen to end this story on which is somebody saying this is a regulation that has zero possibility of being carried out. Do you think that's true perhaps paw? The commas party would defy everything. So perhaps you have the follow it implemented very very strictly Bhutia from Chatham house. Thank you for joining us. You listening to the daily on monocle twenty four. It is now last thing on Friday night on the monocle daily. And well, I usually say in this part of the monocle daily that only means one thing. It's financial Augusta Pacheco's global countdown. But for recent Friday nights, financial, it has not meant that. Because only the one all both of us have been elsewhere will United again, Andrew, and it's a beautiful thing is indeed is on shore, a listeners will agree an- and apologies to those many of you who have scarcely known what to do with yourselves at this point on a Friday night. These last however long it has been, but anyway, for those of you who may be new to the segment and probably the ones who are still listening, the usual thing here is that financial comes in here with the top five of some all other jurisdiction, which he has selected more or less at random as far as I can tell. So this week financial who is the lucky country, the Netherlands the Netherlands. I think the Netherlands such a happy country, and they have quite a happy top five as well. I have to say a nation proverbially of crazy guys who just liked to party, but it has been argued Fernando. At least it is about to be argued that they have over the years contributed about as much to pop music as they have to mountain rescue anyway, moving swiftly along at number five this week in the Netherlands Fernando. We'll have we it's the only known Dutch act. And I think it's a quite a good sung. But I have a finished started to tell about a video clip of that song. It's Grundy with seven rings. Let's hear it. Though. Is. Thanks grandee with seven rings number five this week in the Netherlands that is not an unfamiliar melody, of course. The music. She sampled I think, you know, we like her in grant, I heard you said some good things. I am in a staple on the public record as having said that don't entirely disapprove, very grandba- is an interesting on the video of that song. She to seven Japanese. There was supposed to be seven rings. It was written barbecue grill. So that I saw this story made me laugh laugh and law. I have always always believed that I sold percentage of all the gap Lia tattoos that clueless white kids come southeast Asia with in Chinese Lovie, Austin, AMIS or sanskrit or whatever they've chosen actually do say something like, you know, poke Bowles, Royce, there's one born every minute. Are you ready for good Dutch song, though, I don't know that I ever had or ever will be? But but let's have this is number four entities. It is Divina Michelle with doot along which means takes too long to find. Stan. Indeed, it does this takes. It's a bit of a very simple ballot. Which you don't see that those days in the chart side. They're kind of hip hop track or EDM. I mean, it's it's underwhelming. But she's very popular from row today. And she does lot of covert especially from pink songs as well. Good. Does she do them in Dutch in erase thinking both both because this is the very real risk of setting many Dutch listeners while I admire the Netherlands hugely as a nation and a people, and indeed culture, I am unpersuaded that it's in many respect memorable language is necessarily suited to put music. Maybe not to hip hop because it can be a tiny bit harsh language. So may being hip hop team. My work better is this you'll seamless intro into what's number three in the Netherlands, which is a combination of load of talent you have been current. Jona Fraser and remarks the song through which is dripped. We'll. Bowed how could fail the oven fantastic. Coating. Someone attend to introduce not merely. The Dutch language, but the piano, accordion to hip hope. Easy refrained owed through through you know, and the vehicle is quite funny as if they make fun of that film will Farell the anchorman. So fun of the a film, which was about making the world has got to met. That was definitely that was an accordion Fernando. Do. You know, the joke about what you throw to a drowning accordionist no his accordion. What what's it? If you like the cheap more for you. If is doing a lot of work has been more gangster from what can kill. It's it's Frenna featuring Moulavi with Vero which means viral. Let's. Fool me. Yeah. I mean, I it's it's so far it's been in the mean, but don't worry on the world is is a good watered. Well, it's I think I could see it being the entry for Eurovision for examples. Good as that good. The number one song in the Netherlands this week already. Tipped by monocle revision disc chief another Augusta per oh. As a potential duck Eurasian entry is Walt. It's crisscross Amsterdam there three of producers, featuring Mon and Tabitha and busy as well. In the songs. Call high is fun. My or is mind. If that is the sheer vision entry Fernando is going to come seventeenth if it's lucky though, no bad for twenty three. Listen, I think that's the better. So that's doing that made me happier. You know? And I and the the work from criss cross quite a good producers there internet's good. Well, let's quote for the posters. Schick? Oh, thank you. As always for bringing us, the global counter listening to the daily on monocle twenty four. And that is your lot for today's edition of the monocle daily. The show was produced by Marcus hippy, and Tom holder searches definitely Condie's and may Lee Evans studio manager was Christie Evans these day weekend dishes. He nine hours from now with Georgina Godwin the daily returns at the same time Monday twenty two hundred London, I'm Andrew Mullah. Thanks for listening and have a terrific weekend.
Monocle 24: The Monocle Daily
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Chaos in Canberra
And welcome to a special edition of between. The and so I'm Tom Switzer. Always great to have you company. Well, nothing short of open warfare is broken out. Among the federal liberals this once grand and dignified political party will in the past week. It's resembled nothing so much as a power, bro. The drama started with a rebellion over the national energy guarantee that Cafo quickly turned into a leadership spill, Malcolm Turnbull, prevailed on Tuesday, but within two days the conservatives struck again fatally wounding, Malcolm Turnbull, he's thirty had been draining away as if from an open wound. So why is camera the coup capital of the world is this political volatility unprecedented. Now, we facing an enduring political crisis in this country. Judas bread is America's professor of politics at Latrobe university in millburn and author of several influential books, including Australian liberals and the moral middle-class John's Allen is professor of law, the university of Queensland in Brisbane and a regular contributed to the spectator Australia that had been consistently calling for the downfall of Malcolm tumble for pretty much the last three years and grime young is executive director of the Australian Institute for progress. A former Queensland state vice president and campaign chairman for the Queensland liberal party before we put this week. In a broader context, let's turn to the here. Now, Jim you've been one of the many conservative critics of Malcolm tumble. How accurate was the charge? That Malcolm toon will let a labor light government. Well, it certainly seems accurate to me. I mean, they attacked superannuation. They're big spending big debt governments after press. Trump was elected they ratified Paris throwing money at submarines the appointments that were made by Brandis and turn Bill Guthrie Mellon to the Roslyn crowd shirts. The human rights commission. Did you digital appointments? The economy is built on big immigration. If you look at gross domestic product per capita growth since the lives of come in. It's it's appalling zero point eight one point zero it's below inflation wages stagnating highest energy costs and the democratic world pretty much highest minimum wage just about one of the highest corporate tax rates. I mean, this is not a small government liberal party that I recognize listen the head tough border protection on the Malcolm tumble. He was pushing company techs cuts that doesn't sound like live a lot grime young. No gyms list of of issues of some of those are actually things. The government has no control the freeze heavily sought some minimum wage set by independent body. I think what you think what you go to recognize couldn't do anything about it. And I shouldn't do anything bad. It's an independent body can change the legislation. Well, let's join wants to do and he wants to actually increase it. So. Labor that we might. But that's what you have to work with to lot grime. I think what I think what to go to accept his that Bill showed never accepted that he lost the last election. Hayes been running around using the fact that the government doesn't have the numbers in the Senate to basically twist them by the tile. So Jim says they're big spending government will the not as big a spending government is shorten would have been the certainly a big spending government, and they should have been. But I've had an inability to get budgets through the Senate with at doing the guys and they're side lift a couple of time bombs by the the last prime minister of strategy before tiny Abbott, Julie Gila who put the India's and the gun skate cycled reforms into plies which were unfunded, and which put a time bomb they which future government had to deal with. And that's been a confounding problem as well, many conservatives and liberals Judy would agree with Jim Allen's analysis that term. Oh was too close to lie, but the coalition should represent a choice not an echo had you respond to that conservative. Critique. Well, my response to the Saint of a strike in politics progressives in the right wing of the light of Taty elections of one in the Santa. They don't one on the ages. So hang that symbols. Liabilities. Justice assistant an accumulation. I mean, he was I think a centrist prime minister and striding paid on the whole lock began. And they they won't government should provide into funds itself. But he was actually I think responding to to Wade Saint of politics. Judy is not alone. He Jim Lenora Tyler in the Godley. And she says the lack of policies at the heart of this insurrection this conservative insurrection shows it isn't about preserving the potty as a broad church. It's about following the global trend towards the firearm, which is ultimately unelectable your response. Well, the last time I was on with Utah my listed. We're basically John Howard policies and Paul Kelly called it far right program. It's not far. Right. There's nothing that has been articulated by Peter Dutton or anybody else. That's can be plausibly called far. Right. So I hate that fact that what about forty percent of people in Australia support is somehow can be labeled far, right? Look the commentary at around the world from the mostly journalist clearly are not very attuned to what's happening. They've got the Brexit vote wrong. They got Trump wrong. My native until you know, Doug, Ford got elected on a policy of we are going to pull out of Paris at the provincial level toward extending could kill all the subsidies and cut spending. He won a massive majority. The sort of marked texter view that you move a centimeter to the right of the labour party. And this is a good election strategy. That's supported by people who are left wing in their political inclinations. There's no evidence at works. You're much better off to offer the voter's choice put a chasm between you and labor. I do I do agree with Judy that. And and Graham that we have a huge problem with our Senate. So I think we can agree on that Justin Trudeau gets elected and Kennedy can do what he wants pretty much or a Tory in well Barrymore on the ill Impe government of Campbell. Newman did not have a Senate, and they lost Powell within one to great they lost. Because the voters didn't like they didn't lose because they were completely stuffed by upper house where you get five votes from your friends and Tasmania or some guy who likes cars, and you know, these people who are getting elected to the Senate. Eighteen first preference votes. It's ridiculous now many commentators, I think judy's one of them. You will see a lot of this in the Cambridge Chris gallery. Many of my colleagues at the I B C grime they say that tune Bols greatest Pechiney in the past two threes has been his valley to stay down. Conservatives. I have nowhere else to go. This is their argument and by failing to reach out to lie to support interest legislation. He really undermined he's leadership. How would you respond to those consents, but that's just size PayPal. The they press passes in that's the reality TV or the game of thrones view of politics, Milton. Berle is one vote. A cool 'cause he's a significant, but he's only one, but he represents a potty doesn't represent himself. I mean that is just Saif ashes in a sense in conception. It's ridiculous in the society to live a low so criticisms and to a certain extent from the lift that's what's being bringing Melton will down and it's completely unwarranted. Hayes is a man who leads a liberal arts center at potty. Why would I expect to be anything? But Sarah, there is because there is polling that indicates that, you know, I'm we saw the results of the same sex marriage vote that on some key issues. Strolling people decidedly to the lift of the liberal party conservative base. I'm six marriage renewables. So are the liberal party, especially that Rawling bite out of touch with middle. Australia grime well. Possibly because they don't middle the style. But that doesn't mean the unelectable listen to the discussion about the centrism before that's a two dimensional vision of politics, and it doesn't actually work in the real world. We live in a real world, that's three dimensions. Plus a full time. And we deal with that pretty well when it comes to politics, apparently, we think that you are the lift deride what you do in politics as you put together coalitions of supporters, and you do that as Jim says by differentiating position every person who has won a significant majority. From us auto politics industry has done that Bob Menzies did it on. How did it Malcolm fries? It you difference yet your product, and then you work out who's kind of bought I'm why the guy into bought you don't have any of this nonsense that all we'll just for the people in the middle whoever. They are have you defined the middle and tight and win the election. Does not work watch seems to me the part of the problem here is that the liberal party's still trying to work out, whether it's a liberal party or a conservative party. Let's he from Tom Hughes and Joan golden in the light sixties early seventies. Of course, these new ideas didn't go down will with the Trump dodge in the party. The conservatives will look I belong to a liberal. Well, I think it's a liberal and. That was Joan Gordon the prime minister of Australia from nineteen sixty eight to seventy one sign that the liberal party is a liberal party before that you heard from Tom Hughes. Who was he's attorney general also happens to be Malcolm. Campbell's father in law. Judy is the liberal party liberal party or a conservative potty? They clearly got elements of but one of pedals. I've been struck by topping listening to what they have been saying and the last of the last couple of months riff since to the heart and soul of Taty, and some people believing that the heart and soul of the potties in the base of the party. It reminds me of the schisms that split library, Pat in the prewar period, that's probably out of most people's historical memory now. But then you head really ideologically lift lift people in the light Apache wanting to stay true to the organization, which was essentially the trade union base against the sodas pal. The logic of the parliamentarians. I mean, that's why when Whitlam became lead the lighter potty, he actually increased the top Cottam appearance. So I could freidan fill in that. So seems to me with seeing is a group we little potty for whom it's more important to stay true to putting Audie logical belief. They has been these to win elections with a meaty conventional wisdom to. Judy clearly subscribes Jim is that the liberals would get walked out if the if pay a Dutton who leads a fire out of the potty leads the party at the Knicks election that's going to happen. How would you know, far right of the party, Tom stop talking like that? It's a it's a language. It's the language of the people making that argument. Okay. Well, two things wants terminological in nineteen sixty five. I would have been a liberal because he was talking about classical liberals. He wasn't talking about a modern American progressivism that uses the labor liberal. So we're going back to talk about a John Stuart mill type, liberalism, then count me a liberal. I don't think that there's any evidence that the Malcolm Turnbull black hand gang in the liberal party, a spouse, any of those views, so that's point one point two goes back to this claim about, you know, the polls on renewables, look, there hasn't been anybody in liberal party explained that there's no country in the world where you can you can increase renewables and lower price. If you ran a campaign to make it clear that nobody is living up to the Paris accords. And you every single place where they increase renewables, unless they actually have nuclear power plants. The cost is going to go up. You would see those polls change quickly and exactly the same way that when people saw the cost of moving to a Republican. I wasn't just a airy-fairy poll question, they quickly realized that a Republicans about idea if you explain to the voters what the problem is. We have no leadership. No one saying we're spending too much or here's the problem with renewables Graham, says that means ease fries how it he could argue Abbott. The most successful liberal leaders in the Motiur the federal level governed as an campaigned and governed as center ROY candidates, Judy when Abbott replaced whom Bill light two thousand and nine you said, and I think reflected the conventional wisdom, certainly in the flex media and the IB see quote, the liberals risk becoming a downmarket protest party of angry old men in the outer suburbs yet Abbott revived coalition fortunes. He knocked off road knocked off gilette anyone. Laude election, but also been printed. He was completely incapable of governing. I think eh beheading won the election. Like that improves you capable of governing. Mike people a little wary about the scenario repeating itself. And maybe I'm down here in Karang Ahmad way. Sarah Henderson will be gone think you've gotten we. And I think they'll be Victorian fates as world, it'll be the reason the flipside grime young. I mean, the liberals I want to win back. The million also conservatives who refuse to vote for Malcolm led coalition isn't the flip side of that argument that model unite a lotta those small liberals in electorates locker Wrangham on I'll show let's pot of the political calculus that for every win vote. You win potentially about the to lose. Then why not go have the prime minister because the clock losing move out some they winning. I think what we're talking about people talking about it into of winning the next election. You know, fries it as trying to achieve a strategic fate perhaps than route. If they don't care for they'll end up with a massacre. But but I think onto turmoil though, a heading for route under. Under the under Dutton. I think they could get a strategic defeat like solidify the Bice behind them, and and reassure them that they actually stand for those values on with with Jim this this tone firearm is mealy thrown around shutdown to bite to make it sound like someone's like Hitler. Now. That's just nothing's food from the truth. What what these paper cool the firearm paper who just solid citizens who think these should Kate what you should buy a house Pyatt down. The astrologer is applies. That has institutions rather apply. Set you can just dump people in I believe in. Rod SAI believe implying speaking. They don't believe in political correctness. You know, it's forty fifty sixty percent of the population. And some of them are excellent. Thanks, judy. Judy Judy Brit. Kisses as nine stream strata, many whom saw that. Conserved deficient, for example, on time six marriage where the people who are gotten his associated weekend some of supporters, which is shown to be quite out of out of line way. Nine string thinking news. And it was just times. Now, jim. Same sex marriage. But this was Julia Gillard policy as recently as fifteen years ago, it doesn't count as far right? You can you can agree with it or disagree. But the far, right. You know, my guests Judy Brit emeritus professor of politics at Latrobe James Allen, professor of law at the university of Queensland and grime young full McCain pine chaiman for the Queensland liberal party. Will let's pull this in a historical context. We keep hearing about full prime ministers being knocked since twenty ten Kevin Rudd. Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott nail Malcolm tumble. It's not a new phenomenon. Let's go back to the IB see in botch. Nineteen seventy-one MC month. Australia's new prime minister. This is Russell Simmons in Sydney with the national news report to all six states of the Commonwealth. The governor general Commission, Mr McMahon to form a government meeting of the liberal party decided on a change of leadership. Now Bill McMahon. Struck against Joan golden enlighten on sixty nine. He whited probably sixteen also months before striking again in nineteen seventy one these days, you do in two days back, then you had a month's Judy things really changed dramatically in Cambridge. I think. Well, I think the other comparison that in the past parliamentary prime minister fell on the floor of the house rather than in the potty. But again, it was because people change their nine. So, you know, in the first ten years, we had finished communist Menzies lost depri-. He's supposed prime minister sheep on the floor of the house went to heat supported defected. So, you know, the I mean now hadn't the potty room because potty won't be 'plain. I've trying to think, you know, you say plus two dot and when it becomes prime minister will full on the floor of the house. Probably not I think even full of the cross bench voted against he'd still be okay. And listen national decided to move but promised so I think that it's the discipline stops that I think that would be good thing. And we should just have an election. You grime this period of doubt and uncertainty. That's a fluted the ustralian. I mean, how different is it from other periods. Well, it's no different role. You know, we've had more of the soda thing in stroz history than we've had periods of pace. You know, we we look at the times when we've had long governments. But even Menzies who is invoked to us as prime minister turf debt, just before the war during the war, and then came back and full the liberal potty. And then one a long period of time, which which because a lot of people who come and tight grew up in that period of time that sets the standard as to what you think happens. We have paid us in here in Queensland Baltin, Victoria, and and ask six minutes. Tonight years, that's pretty odd isn't well everage term of government used to be about two and a half years. And then I go to doubt. So, you know, the people did that to thing at the moment. We've got the the back benches doing terrific out. But I think it's that unreas- unusual. But what we've got at the moment is we've got I do think it's unusual in energy. Lemme ask you your from Canada votes. I lead in New Zealand you've lived in this country for nearly fifteen years help Accua or unusual around problems. Are I think they are pretty naked? I put them down to two factors firstly if you compare us to Canada and Britain, the party members have say in the leader, it's not just up to the caucus. Turn Bill would never have won. If he had had to appeal to the party party members. So Justin Trudeau on the left of left side politics. He's not put in just by his carcass. He's put in by the party members. Even Theresa May. You know, they the caucus can get it down to two. And then the. Party members vote that brings some stability. The other distinct factor here in Australia. We're one of only three democratic countries in the world with a powerful upper-house Italy. It's a basket case the US has modeled on the US the US has one, but it's got only a two party system. So at least, you know, it's all the other parties fault. There's nobody accountable here. If I don't like what Jacqui Lambie does in the Senator. I don't like what some guy gets twelve votes from Victoria does. I have I have. No, there's nothing I can do is voter in Queensland the senate's powerful the voting systems of mess in the Senate. And so a guy gets elected or a woman gets elected. And there's nothing they can do. They can't get things through the Senate that doesn't apply anywhere else. We'll Kili the veteran journalist who's been on this program several times over the last few years. He says L nation is facing a political crisis. He's been saying this for some time petty partisanship political polarization, Pavel special interests poll, driven political, culture reform weary. Innis and camera, but Judy if you put this in an international perspective, you know, spent time in Westminster Washington in recent times, final Paul Rausing dysfunctional and partisan in Britain and America than it is he. They're not PO Kelly, Scott, he always funding crosses. He's. I mean, I think one of the great stabilities in Astrid is compulsory vouching that makes out app polity to hide quasi for me from Indiana countries. And I think one of the differences ease. It means that the motivation of the extremes doesn't work even the white dozen countries where you don't have compulsive housing way that mobilization is needed to bring out the vote. And I think that's one of the reasons that at politics is pooled always towards the Saint grim. Compulsory voting. I don't think it really makes much difference. The pot of what was saying at the moment. NFL Powell is collision of a sort of international idealistic way of looking at some issues like for example, climate change colliding with polcy reality and no party in the parliament of the moment has a solution to that. And none of them is prepared to be honest with the public as we're in on Tairea. So I think what you've got his cowardly politicians not fighting some of these issues getting swept along and getting compromised by their impasse decisions and tiny got himself compromised as well and not being prepared to taika positions. I think part of the problem is that there political class lease dies, and that some of the stuff you've been plying involved people who'd been involved in Wilbur took when you put you on the life on the line for your country. Your attitude politics is a lot different than if you've would. Y up through the the young liberals young vibe rule. Young nationals through members office and advisement what to sign him. What not to say with limited consequences if you get it wrong. And then suddenly, you're member of parliament. I think that's breeding some of the instability Judy hell, how do we resolve this problem in camera? What I think we need an election. Really? You know, if I'd been Malcolm to have have called an election today to actually create you would have blown up your own party and created an annoy elation just at a spite after having. Hoster having knife. The former prime minister white ended him for year and a half. I mean, if Turnbull had done his reputation would have been trash think the pod brash. I would have been a wis resulting. They're going to get do agree with Judy about compulsory voting though. I think the real problem is preferential voting. So the compulsive part is fine. The problem is if you're angry with your side of politics, you have to preference them, unless you're prepared to vote for labor, so in a first-past-the-post system or most other voting systems, you're not required to vote for the block and only in Australia, and I think some other country in the South Pacific has preferential voting are used to like it. But what it does is it locks you in. So you can put all these other parties I, but as long as you put the libs ahead of labor, you are affectively voting for the lives. And so it's very hard to discipline your own party with preferential voting. I think that's the pro to be continued grime Jim Judy. Thanks so much for being. Between the lines. Thanks, Judy British from Latrobe university James Ellen is from the university of Queensland and grime young is the executive director of the Australian Institute for progress. We'll before you leave us, let's take a trip down memory lane. The liberal party of bounds with Impey's and senators wielding Nantes's, many of them conservative low Mike is Representative of the potties Bice will they whiting to sink the gnaws between the latest shoulder blades. No. I'm not referring to August. Twenty eighteen that much nineteen seventy-one mentioned this earlier in the show. The liberal prime minister was John Gordon. His wrought hand men was Thome Hughes. Attorney general end Malcolm tumbles father in law, and the challenge was Bill mon- representing the conservative wing of the potty. He's the IB sees Nani ninety four documentary the liberals. Liberal party of been challenged. And the the question of the federal nature of the Patty because John Gordon had demonstrated that he'd be become a must centralist prime minister said never centrist, prime minister for a liberal have gotten was a man. Who really didn't have the same? Visuals standards as liberal party. I often wondered really having happened to get into the liberal party. I believe is himself transitional prime minister stuff. Number of young lido's in the liberal party. All. Not sufficiently mature to support that time. But during the is John Bolton would have been should have been. It would have that cell fail. The lead would've lived and being the future. Prime minister was finding within camber within my own area responsible. In many ways being repeated the press the spectrum of government in the spectrum of the Patty. And it was all of that that lived to join Gordon's undoing something was bound to be the last straw. Ladies and gentlemen on Sunday night. Could you list, Ellen Reid suggested on television that if Fraser resigned he would bring down Joan golden. Outdrawing Malcolm Epping, should did you hear that stuff that they could ever the the meeting and he should damage. Alright you get a bit bus to worry about. And I went to bed and next morning. I had to bash. But if I've made up a mind that I wanted to resign. Visit and want to be sick before. I resigned. And I think that's legitimate. That wasn't the other give any warning to join Gordon that night. What I'd intended. I wanted to have it out clear. As my decision. My option. On the Monday phrase did resign his cabinet post the morning while the day, I made my resignation speech. Two people into my office ahead speech was not an us oppose this indicates that. Two more in my mind because I'd never envisage that I'd be in that position. Last both of them have time to read the speech. But I said, I've got a speech that I think would probably. Destroy join Gordon's prime ministership. Should I make it? Oh, should I not make it? Ciller should make it. Jeez. The more things change the more. They stay the same. What a waking camera on Switzer? Hope you continue in again next week. And.
Between The Lines