1 Episode results for "Association Of State Health Officials"

How does this end?

Vox's The Weeds

1:03:57 hr | 1 year ago

How does this end?

"This episode is brought to you by us. Cellular there's never been a better time to switch to US cellular because now when you do you'll get fifty percent off. Select New smartphones like the Samsung Galaxy S. ten or the Google Pixel for a great choice on a great phone. Now that's fair. Us Cellular Choose. Fair terms apply while we are winning the ideological battle and while we are winning the support of so many young people and working people throughout the country. I have concluded that this battle for the Democratic nomination will not be successful and so today. I'm announcing the suspension abide campaign. Hello welcome to another episode of the Weeds. On the box media podcast network. I'm here today with Ezra Klein We're GONNA talk about Bernie Sanders. Who recently dropped out of the presidential race in a minute but first we really wanted to try to dive into some of the different ideas about how to kind of get out of the lockdown phase that were currently in the country. Answer has been doing a fair amount of reporting on this recently. Speaking to some of the people who've been reading the plan so I'm just GonNa ask you what. What are the big ideas that are out there right now? Yes so I think this is. It is really important that people have a sense of what comes after social distancing and the more you look into it. I'm am going to just say to previous conversation the worse it is. This is not a comforting reporting. I've been doing right now. I think there are. There are probably more than this. But they're three or four main plans that are floating around and I think the differences between them are very luster tive what the actual binding constraints. So the ones that want to focus on here are the American Enterprise Institute has a plan. Scott Gottlieb is associated with three other co-authors Beginning a lot of attention that I spoke with him for my interview podcasts. I have a good sense of what's going on in that the Center for American progress which is more liberal. They've got a plan led by Zeke Emmanuel The Harvard Saffir Center for ethics is brought together. A working group led by Dino Allen Jose philosopher and political theorist England. Wile who's an economist and a couple of others and they've got a plan called mobilize in transition and then Nobel Prize winning economist. Paul Romer has been pushing plan built on mass testing. That I also want to discuss but let me give you a very quick overview so all of the first three plans cap mobilized and transition at Harvard An. Ai They all basically look at some high level a little bit to say. Which is I to go through this. Very intense lockdown Oftentimes there is a decided time period for it. A A good point. The Harvard plan makes is the actual word quarantine comes from the Italian word for forty nine in in in the past cortines have always been time limited when you do something like this in order to make sure it retains political legitimacy you tend to need to give people some certainty about how long this will happen for. And what comes after they make the point? I think they're right that it's quite large political failure that we have not done that yet but to everybody agrees you need a period of of lockdown and ideally. That period of lockdown is national So capital emphasizes this that you shouldn't be doing lockdowns. State-by-state way should have is a national lockdown for an for cited period of time. The question in all of them is if you do that lockdown well and by the way during that lockdown you need to not just be slowing the spread of the virus. You also need to be surging primarily two things testing surveillance capacity and then health system capacity so flattening. The Qurban raising the line as as people call it then. The question is what happens after that. And this is where the plans begin to differ. So the A. I. Plan is I would call it. It's a more modest plan C. Move into this phase two and you can move into phase two when there's been declining cases for forty days into state and you've got surveillance and health system capacity up but phase two is your slowly reopening businesses. You're trying to make sure that disease doesn't spread you're doing more contact tracing. You're basically doing things. We understand now but I would call it like half speed right. You're searching a lot of health system capacity and you're just like trying to do this sort of hammer and dance effort to like. Bring it down to mega social distancing and then Kinda like halfway keeping that going until you can get back to some sort of vaccine or therapeutic that will get you out of this in a very real way and the upside of that is that it could work. The downside of that is there's GonNa be no v-shaped economic recovery. There right you are. You are kind of in this. Basically Intel therapeutic comes along so here can we can we? Can we discuss some some terms? Here a therapeutic is what so it could be two things there are vaccines but I was just talking to Gottlieb. And he said he doesn't think we should be planning for a vaccine before two years. Now maybe we get it in eighteen months. But you shouldn't bet on that but there are a series of therapeutics. That could be helpful here so they're the vaccines that will give you immunity. And then there are different classes of drugs. That would either help you. Fight off the virus or just help you Be a little bit more resistant to viruses like this in general or and he and I spoke to Gottlieb who is talking about these and he talked about this third category but we might just get better at knowing how to treat the virus we might get better at knowing how deal aside akin storms which of the immune system responds. You might get better at knowing. There's some questions about whether or not ventilators are the best treatment for a lot of the cases. Get very serious. Maybe we maybe we come to understand better how to handle the right. So the the the basic point there is that if we could treat the disease more effectively than the cost benefit on severe social distancing rules shifts right. It's like people used to back in an earlier phases to be like. Wow you know like we have the flow but we don't shut down the economy over it and the reason we don't shut down the economy over the flu is that it's not that deadly right if we develop medications and treatments that bring the lethality of this down then we can sort of let people go about their business. Yeah I actually think that's a very important way to think about it. So right now. Let's say as a baseline estimate. This is ten times deadlier than the flu on which seems about right if you can make it. Three times deadlier than the flow. Would that be such people would be willing to take that risk normalize right maybe maybe not an wanted denote here is that this is ten times other than the flu if your health system is operating reasonably well if you're also some gets overwhelmed it can become thirty times forty times w within the flu because you're not able to keep people alive when they need that extra help so if you are doing a good job on social distancing doing a good job house capacity and you get some therapeutics you can bring both the number of cases quite far down but also case fatality rate could become something like point three point four point five and I mean we get into these cost benefits about what people are going to be willing to do. I will say something that I think is very notable in those. Is that in that kind of second phase of like quasi social distancing. There's not really a good answer for people who are older people. You know compromise. Maybe you and me get to go to the grocery store again more regularly or even get to go to work again although maybe not but for like my mom who is in the seventies with lung damage. This could be a long time of a very very difficult situation and so I want to note that these are not. These are not really great solutions. Which brings me to cap an to to saffron and to Rome or because all of them have an idea for how to get back to something that looks more normal more quickly but in each case the idea requires some pretty big leaps so the Senator Mark Barclays. They really emphasize a very very heavy. It's like what they WanNa do is basically have something on everybody's phone that is doing instantaneous. Contact tracing so it knows who were coming into contact with through GEO tagging. And you know you'll try to make sure you can handle this on the privacy side. We'll talk about that in a Sec. But so if somebody then does go in and test positive for coke at nineteen what happens after that is you can call up their data and everybody. Who's been in contact or bid near their phone is maybe the better way to put. It is going to get a little paying this as you come into contact with Cova. Nineteen we need you to self isolate or quarantine or whatever it is and so you're talking here and the Harvard Plan has a version of his to a massive digital surveillance architecture. Now you've seen some of the South Korea Summit in Taiwan but we have very different culture political culture in those countries. Do we don't trust the companies that might do this. Cap wants to give this power and this data to an association of State health officials for whether or not they would be able to use it well whether or not they'll be trusted predicted. The time of very high political polarization. I I think it's a real open question but if you if you can imagine getting over that Hump then you're talking about something where you're basically using massive instantaneous digital surveillance to be able to respond so rapidly to outbreaks of the disease that you can handle pretty much on a case by case basis once you get the number of cases quite far down. This is as I understand. I mean this is pretty heavily based on the idea that South Korea has sort of got this under control right. I mean that's the sort of the inspiration for the CAP. The cap plan is very clearly inspired by South Korea. Right and so that means more testing more digital surveillance with the idea being that you could let the virus sort of circulate without it spreading exponentially if you could do this instantaneous. Large scale Context yes that brings me to the Harvard. Saffir plan which I would say the primary way different. So that's got a lock down through June twenty second and they're really explicitly taking wartime mobilization as they're both political and philosophical and economic for that matter inspiration and ideas you want to treat us like a war so massive massive investment in getting testing up to I think it's billions either a week or a day and similarly to cap to teach racing but they're big one of their other big idea is. Is that anyone who is showing through serological testing to have had the disease? Now must enroll in medical service corps. That is able to activate with the idea of these folks have immunity and so they can go do things that are difficult or dangerous and other people can't do so it could be food delivery or working in the health system or whatever but basically you're dealing with something almost medical draft once you are shown to be eligible for the medical draft. You must be in the medical draft to be sort of to to be able to move into these next phases. They also just have this massive rise in testing a assembly massive rise in it tracing and their idea. The way they frame is is that as a comparison to what else might happen here if you take this period and you use it to spend what they estimated to be two to three trillion dollars on building an it like a pandemic surveillance system like nothing we've ever seen in this country and massive testing and over time Vaccine production capability. Like nothing. We've ever seen in this country will look. There's going to be a lot of economic loss along the way but at least we spent that money. In a way that stimulates the economy and builds things for the future both probably stimulates innovation in in the public health system but also this creates a much better public health system altogether. What I would say on both the CAP and the Harvard plans is that they are assuming a lot in my view. Not necessarily wrongly but still assuming a lot in terms of what people are going to be comfortable with what they will do in terms of surveillance level of surveillance. They are imagining at a time when people do not trust this government And do not trust the other people who are in opposition to this government. It is very hard to imagine Americans sort of flashing the Qr code every time they walk into a building or bus way. This happening in China very hard for me to imagine Americans being willing to download this kind of thing onto their phone explicitly. You could say by the way in facebook and ways already have many things like this and we're making it explicit but it can be very difficult to politics to make things like that explicit and say that somebody is going to be using the state even if it's primarily voluntary to you what you have to do from now on everybody go near. So I'm GonNa talk more about this as we go on and I wanted to talk about the Romer Plan for a minute too but what I do WanNa just like frame. Here is in all of these plans. A thing to really note is there is no normal coming. There is like a world of mass digital surveillance it is going to be very strange and would require a real differences in the way we see the government or someone some kind of player here and each other Something we've not really accepted before rovers different than all this. He believes that kind of it. Tracing is not something people are GonNa be willing to do so what he wants to do is expand testing to a level that nobody else's considering so twenty two billion tests every single day is such that everybody in the population is being tested every fourteen days and he's got really interesting modeling with shows even if you have a high false negative rate doesn't matter because people are getting retested. You can basically just use testing to be your contact. Tracing you can use testing at that level to know what is happening with everybody with a high level of granularity. Now you could have little outbreaks and he's trying to think about ways. You would manage that if it began to happen. See probably some level of contact tracing but the problem here is that nobody. I talked to seems to think we are anywhere near or even necessarily can get to the testing capacity for twenty million and eight. Maybe we can write again in a wartime mobilization efforts. Sometimes we're able to do. We didn't think we could do but right. Now we're facing. We stood up some testing capacity gottlieb saying by activating basically every lab. That wasn't doing this but now we'd have to build new LABS BILL DO PLATFORMS. A lot of the supply chain materials. We need like reagents and swabs are already facing shortages. So how quickly we can get. That manufacturing. Passively stood up is sort of anybody's guess. We're having a lot of trouble going to billions a week idea that you'll get to tens of millions a day if you could. I think it's probably the best of the plans. But also how you would administer those millions of today or Pennsylvania. Today's is a big open question. I wanted to describe rumors plan in in a little bit more detail because like because I do think it's fascinating as a as an exercise. You can look he. He's got these Simulations on his website and you know he's not a public health expert. Like at all and Scott. Gottlieb ran the FDA zeke Emanuel who sort of took the lead on the cat plan is a big thinker in public health. A Paul Romer is a he'd like he's a brilliant guy but not a public health person at all. But what what he's shows or purports to show. I think he's convinced me though is if you test people at random at the scale he's talking about once every two weeks and then you isolate people who test positive that that actually really constrains the scope of the outbreak very significantly even in the total absence of other public health measures and it. It sounds wrong. You know what I mean like separate from the question of like could you do twenty million today and to me? At least I get it intuitively sounded incredibly wrong. That if you just randomly tested people once every two weeks and then isolate them if they're sick and let everybody do whatever all the time that this would control tout break but it it seems like it really does and that even if you couldn't quite get to the twenty million a day if you could pair them with some of the milder social sing saps like if people wore masks and we didn't have like movie theaters of Large Sports Events Open. You could get somewhere with it but it's also like it's a total assume. Can OPENER PLAN? There is a more modest version of it that I do think that that has been talking about. I think it's worth taking seriously because I don't think it is out of the question at all. Which is you could do that plan but do it. For Health. Workers City Workers Public Safety Workers Transit Workers Etcetera Food Service workers. So there are certain said of Professions. That are one extremely important to keep operating but to extremely vulnerable to this disease because of the number of people they have to come into with and in addition to all the other stuff you may want to be doing like people wearing masks some amount of social distancing if you were able to stand up capacity to be doing that aggressive constant testing for them. You'd be able to keep that foundation of both the economy and the public health response running much more effectively and convinced by at least some rumors arguments here and I think that is something that we should really have as a goal right. So then looping back I mean I. I do really want to emphasize. I was thrown for a loop honestly when I started looking into the Harvard. Ai At an cap plans because they are so different from what I think is implied when the President says like we're GONNA open up the economy again. I obviously not being specific at all undermine what he means but like the image you have in your is like okay. Life becomes a close resemblance of how it was in February twenty twenty and under the planet's not happening. I mean not just because of the intensity of the digital surveillance but They're calling for an indefinite ban on very large gatherings of people for an indefinite. Like I forget exactly how cap described how they want airplanes to work but it was like you wouldn't really want to do it. Any means a significant sectors of the economy all spectator type events right like movie theaters. Art Stuff sports things. All kinds of conferences right really leisure tourism travel like people might go to visit family members under these plans like they weren't like super clear on some of the small details like do the casinos in Las Vegas Open again but the conditions under which all this stuff would be operating are onerous enough that even if they are in some sense open like business will not be doing very well like people. Don't want to sit around and masks and be temperature gun twelve times a day for fun and it really. It's sobering in terms of thinking about what kind of economic recovery measures we because I still see these investment bank forecasts that are like we're going to be set down in cue to probably if the virus gets under control we come bouncing backing you four and then you look at these plans and they're like they're not saying we're going to be back to normal in. Q. Four they're saying like I don't know exactly what they're saying. You'll be able to get a haircut. I guess is the upside of these plants. I actually think looking at what cap says about travel restrictions is really instructive here. And as you say very sobering so what they WANNA do is for the number I see and hear is eighteen months until her. Immunity has been established. You have airline. Passengers must download the contact. Tracing APP confirmed no close proximity to a positive case and pass a fever check or so documentation of immunity from serological test. The TSA must've screening procedures to ensure physical distancing and limit airport terminal access to ticketed passengers only. There's a bunch of stuff about sanitation. Here subways buses and transit stations to limit the number of passengers. To fifty percent capacity buses. Mead protect separation. Those might all be good ideas in some ways. I think they probably are all good ideas in terms of this virus itself but as you say like those were not ideas consistent with an economic recovery. Certainly not with a V. shaped economic recovery. Those are those are not as consistent with normal as any of US understand it. Those are ideas consistent with. I don't I don't I don't know what to call it like the age of Krona Virus Scott Gottlieb in our conversation. He talks about the eighty percent. Economy like eighty percent of the economy is gonNA come back but like eighty percent of the economy is like that's good. That's better than fifty percent of the economy but it's not great And I'm not seeing a lot of people believe you're GONNA get around. I mean this is why Paul Romer has what like something. Romer will say if you talk to is that we need to be thinking really differently because if you look at these plans from an economist perspective. They are all still kind of disaster. That if you let this happen we are just going to be in an unending. Economic Crisis and like people are not looking at this from economic perspective. That is all like we need to do something about the public health problem here but we also need some plan for how the economies are going to work again and by the way this is all taking place in terms of an incredibly shattered global economy. Where like practically emerging markets rips through are going to be coming on and off line at times like different places. You can be going in trade border restrictions like it's just when you think forward sit like twelve months in the economy like this is wild. Wait I mean you know. Eighty percent economy eighty percent is one of those weird numbers where it's like B minus like. Maybe it's not so bad but that's we did not see a twenty percent shrinkage in the size of GDP at the worst a moment of the great recession. So we're talking about. An economic situation is worse than the low point of the great recession proceeding for eighteen months after a couple months of lockdown. And that's really billy bad right and this is why I I've been on a on a journey here where I read roamers plan. I was like that's a fun mathematical exercise but like this is dumb. 'cause we're clearly not going to do twenty million tests a day and then. I read these other plans and I was like wow and started to started to loop back to Rama was saying and even to develop some sympathy for the now abandoned view that the UK government originally had that like it wasn't worth doing these lockdowns at all Simply because if what it takes to sustain Taliban infection levels is as severe as what some of these plans are calling for. I'm just I'm not really sure that it will stick. Oh Yeah I think. I think that we haven't even talked about the political difficulties of all of these plans are imagining worlds. Where states are pretty routinely. Going to be moving in and out of lockdown right. You've got these triggers like for instance in the Ai Plan. It's fourteen days of consistent case reduction. That's but that's one of the things that will get you out of phase one but you might have to go back into phase one and I mean. Donald Trump for instance is clearly desperate to get us out of lockdown. Like he's not GonNa go back into it and a couple of months like a deep into an election. At least he's very much not GonNa want to. There's a great line from the Economic Story and Adam twos which he was telling me in terms of these ideas just like let the virus rip through the system and like millions die but the economy keeps turning. He called it an unreal form of realism. That it sounded like realism. But it. But it but it wasn't and I also had the same feeling reading some of these plans like the ones that feel more realistic. They also have this feeling of unreal. Realism that war. People really going to like our people can accept that or they can live through this. It's not clear what options are going to have but this is really bad. Nobody is even if you take these plants and in every single one of them. You're assuming something that is politically very difficult to imagine. This sort of massive nationwide. It Surveillance Architecture. Twenty million test today or just the political capacity to be moving us in and out of social distancing smoothly and constantly while doing a lot of other things very well simultaneously like even if you assume any of them can happen and I don't think that's like an obvious assumption. These are miles ahead of where any political leadership is nationally at least in terms of what we're seeing from this administration And Miles ahead of where. A preparation is nationally. So even if you get over that you're not dealing with anything like normalcy. You're dealing with a very strange awkward like the G- Limbo life that we're all gonna be in for an for a long time. It's a very scary thing to contemplate like I. You people would hear me a couple of weeks ago on the weeds talking about how we need to talk about what comes after social distancing will now are and I thought the answers were going to be comforting to people look. There's a plan but I think if you look at the plans closely. They're very scary. Let let's take a break. It and then I wanNA talk about some kind of institutional details here. This episode is brought to you by. Us Cellular. There's never been a better time to switch to US cellular. Because now when you do you'll get fifty percent off your choice of select new smartphones. That's amazing phones. Lake the Samsung Galaxy s ten E or Google. Pixel for a great choice on a great phone. Now that's fair. Use Cellular. Choose terms apply check? Us Cellular Dot Com for details. Hey this is better glaze. He has appeared box. Our mission is to power people through understanding and it's never been more important as we face. A deadly pandemic information has the power to save lives but really good explanatory. Journalism takes resources particularly during a pandemic and economic downturn hammered the advertising market. To this week we are launching and contribution effort at Vox dot com slash. Give your contribution will help. Vox keep making podcasts. That people need to understand and navigate the coronavirus crisis volume that matches. What the crisis requires the weeds is. Part of. Vox Your contribution will help support this show and a lot of other work we do. You can contribute by going to box dot com slash give. These are not tax deductible. But thank you for listening and I hope you'll help to support our work. So what are the things that that struck me about? These plans that they they require a level of coordination. That it it. I don't want to say it's impossible but it doesn't seem evident exactly because things that even just the idea that in Gottlieb's plan like well a state can exit phase one when it's had consistent fourteen day decline in caseloads right the way like our government works. There's no authority that can impose that right and there's no uniformity. I mean every day on on every evening on twitter. I chew over a million different data. Visualizations the different people produce of of this sort of cove nineteenth stats and then people argue about what they mean and one thing that always comes up is that like the states are testing at different rates. So it's like whether you have declining. Caseload is in part of function of how vigorously you're testing People who want to game the system will have some ability to do that. we would have to create like a whole different national architecture of this. Then the Cap Andy I plans they both mention. 'cause it's it's top of mind to decision makers that the New York City and Washington. Dc Metro areas both exist across multiple states and you need coordination it matters. You know what's happening in Maryland. What's happening in Virginia? You need a framework to work there. same thing. Philadelphia Metro area cuts across into Jersey. It's less of a problem In the West and the South but CHICAGO LAND EXTENDS INTO INDIANA. And you'd be sort of making this stuff up on the fly in terms of how to make these calls and the White House doesn't appear that they are doing anything on on these fronts. I mean I don't know how golly feels about what the trump administration is doing. He worked with them. I guess but I sorta tune in to these press conferences for the past couple of days and I keep waiting to hear like okay. Here's how we're thinking about this. Here's what we're working on. And it seems like they're not really working on anything so dae-pol swells had a good piece at New York magazine. The other day there was just huddled. There is no plan and he was talking about some of this. And I've been like mulling over that piece of into my has been reading the plans because like one version of thinking about this is there is no plan because Donald Trump and national political leadership have not settled on a plan and begun implementing it effectively both in terms of preparing the American people for what it will require and in terms of actually getting. It stood up doing the national surveillance system and so on and there's another version of saying that that is there is no possible plan right. There is no plausible plan. Here that actually leads to a good outcome and I'm leaning a little bit more towards that second view here that were were in something that is you know. This is being used a law or in something like a war in the sense. It is quite zero-sum Or negative some actually more to the point which is like this is just going to be bad. There are plans it could make it like more or less bad or there's a lack of planning the can make it more or less bad but when I imagine the alternative universe here where it's not. Donald trump is president Pick your person who has a set of good ideas for dealing with the virus like? There's no really good ideas on the table here now. I think we'll talk about this. Move into the next segment. You can imagine much more exciting and inspiring ideas for how to rebuild society in the aftermath of the virus. There are things you could be doing. And saying and preparing for that is about using crisis as an opportunity for the future but in terms of the next year of American and global life. It does not appear to me that there is a plan that anyone would recognize as successful like there is no plan that anybody's going to recognize as it gets us back to normalcy to a good economy at an acceptable public. Health costs almost seems to me that we're in a bit of a trauma there like things could be more normal but not with like a and maybe more normal With a good economy but not an acceptable public health cost or they could have like acceptable. Public health cost and like a good economy. But there's GonNa be no normalcy. I mean sure that was possible. I agree with that like these plans. Reporting this did not make me feel like okay. We've got an obvious winner and I'm GonNa do some takes About how we should do that but also like this is an element of where you do. I think need leadership right. I mean but we've seen here. Is that calling up a couple of people at the top. Think tanks to put together plans and I. I don't want to derive their work. Because it's it's careful it's interesting. These are interesting ideas but the answers that they come up with are not do not great. I've been I've been sorta reading and thinking about the American civil war lately in part because Civil war battlefields are very empty right now in. Its someplace you can go with a five year old but the the Lincoln administration faced this problem. We're like there wasn't a great answer to the problem of like. How do you subdue the confederacy? And they had to really work hard at getting different people in the room and talking to more people and firing some of the generals and promoting some other people like grinding away at it and that's the opposite of Donald Trump. Right I mean. He is the ultimate like quick fix sky and there isn't a quick fix available here right. It's it's not that he hasn't like loaded up the correct PDF. But clearly somebody somebody who I think is closer to the realm of public health and the practicalities of government needs to get Paul Romer into a room with some other people and I think start bearing down on the question of. Is there some way to make this work like in a detailed way because I think these other plans that rely on digital surveillance and contact racing? If that's the best we can do. That's the best we can do. But they're they're really bad as solutions like it. It's not an outcome. Anybody if they understand what it looks like is going to be satisfied with and I I think they're just like there has to be some kind of over the next few weeks whenever and agrees we're going to stay in in some kind of locked down. We need some kind of like team be work on. Is it in fact. Possible to drastically scale up the quantity of of tests possibly by doing wartime mobilization type of things because otherwise like man. I don't know like. Are we going to blurt through at a two year depression? I think the question of the need for detailed visionary leadership don't visionary leadership is probably a good time to take a break and moved to the twenty twenty race hey it is as a host of the Ezra Klein show podcast. We've been covering a huge amount of virus related questions over on the show and this week. We sat down with Senator Elizabeth Warren Federal Government that can order the tests. It is the federal government that can use the pence production at in order to force companies to produce the test kits to produce the masks to produce the gown. The states don't have the power to do that. Only the federal government does listen to our conversation subscribed to the client. Show wherever you get your podcasts. Hey It's Swisher you may know me as the only person who looks cool wearing sunglasses indoors but in my spare time. I host a podcast called Rico decode every week. We talked about power. Change the people you need to know around tech and beyond some of my recent guests include Edward Snowden Meghan re piano and the cast of the l word which was a huge thrill for me. If any of these sound interesting to you should listen to them now on Rico. Decode subscribe to the show for free on apple podcast or in your favorite podcast APP to be the first to hear new interviews every week. So Bernie Sanders. Not President Anymore He was a weird end to a to a campaign Simply because you know he he'd fallen behind it and the virus made campaigning itself. Sort of impossible. I guess I wanted to sort of reflect back on this race to me. Something I think about is back in February of Twenty nineteen some of the people at Jakobsen. The the Socialist magazine asked me to Discuss with them. The the prospect of Bernie Redux and I said what I thought was like a super sensible suggestion which is that Bernie should formally joined the Democratic Party and make people happy about that and they kind of just like they laughed that off. That was self evidently absurd and I spoke to senior people on his campaign right when he was launching and they said that was like so unthinkable. That like weren't even going to bring it up at a meeting and looking back. I mean I don't want to say like I could have won this race for Bernie. Everybody should listen to me. But it's it's kind of remarkable thing that in a race where unlikely twenty sixteen. This was not a protest candidacy right. He was really running to win. And at one point it looked like he might win He wasn't willing to do like literally the simplest thing you could do to make yourself seem more acceptable to a mainstream political party. There's a lot in here and I wanNA think it's good to be careful discussing these candidacies right at their end because a lot of people are grieving Bernie Sanders is someone who thrilled a lot of people and I think for good reason and seeing his candidacy and his heart right at the ends of candidates are hard For everybody they were hard for Warren Supporters There are hard for Buddha supporters of. You know they'll be hard for. It's currently being hard for Santa supporters. And so I don't know exactly. I think you're right about that. I had a very I. What I thought was really telling interaction with Briana Joey Gray birdies campaign press secretary just like two days before Santos dropped out and the back story to it is that I had on the show. A podcast Elizabeth Warren about chronic virus. And when I looked promoted the podcast I said that talking to Warren is like entering a alternative reality where we have political leadership proportionate to the scale of the crisis. We're facing and I do urge people listen to that interview. I think she's fantastic now in my head when I wrote that tweet. That was quite obviously a comparison with the actual political leadership of the country. Donald TRUMP RIGHT WHO? I think who like everybody else. I've watched on press conferences. And it's a scary performance but gray jumped into By mentions and you know talking to some Bernie people like You know like Bernie's out here like got all these great policies for corona virus being ignored like and she said about me like for some people. This was never about the policy at all. It's backed her. You know because she knows this. I've been inviting Bernie Sanders like that. One wasn't a tweet about sanders at all but I've been inviting sanders on the show for months like I pitched them on a profile of Sanders legislator like like I would love to sit down and talk Bernie Sanders including now about corona virus And instead of trying to set something up like she's like trying to start a twitter fight with somebody in the press who is very open to covering her candidates ideas and she wrote back that she thought that was transactional awesome that I was offering a like the in order to get good coverage he needed to do an interview. And I tell this story because I thought the invocation of transactions and there was really useful. There's going way back. On discussions of left politics. This distinction between purist and pragmatists and purest often feel that the kinds of given take that you need to do politics dirty that what you want is people who really stick to principle. Who Don't waiver? Who Don't compromise. Who Don't join the Democratic Party which is full of wavering and compromise and impure principles and people don't really like and they always end up intention attention with people who see politics as this game of pluralistic compromise and one of the things that I saw Sanders campaign was that they had defined this down at times to an almost absurd level. Like in this case his press secretary was telling somebody who runs an interview show that inviting her candidate onto the interview show was transactional when like I've covered Bernie plenty during this campaign on more actually than I covered Warren But to be on the interview show you have to come on the interview show like I don't have a I don't have a way around that Difficulty and of course you hype up the interviews on twitter. Writing would started. This was your tweet promoing. The obvious right. Of course everybody who has an interview show after you interview a guest? You don't do it Promo tweet. That's like listen to this guy is totally worthless right like he. And that's not transactional. It's just like that's the show. And if you WANNA be on the show you gotTa do the damn show yet but to take it off of me because I don't think I'm the Even though the most important example this what I what I mean in telling this is that I think this was suffused throughout the sand campaign so there are a bunch of tweets. I think one of them was from Dave clearly on about how there was a level of like what we really saw here was a level of democratic political establishment unity. There was completely unheralded in the modern era and one. That's just literally untrue You've not made times like Bill Clinton And the Senior House and Senate leadership they endorsed Al Gore in two thousand Like early in the primary to show who the democratic establishment back resent never happened in any way for Joe Biden but also there has been this broad feeling on the Bernie Sanders team and among Bernie supporters. That what happened with Pete Club People Judging Amy Klobuchar with somehow dirty pool like it was this weird political masterstroke as opposed to just like politics. I am sure Joe Biden promising. Buddha judging Amy Klobuchar stiffed around on that reporting and have not been able to figure out what those things are but yes clearly. There was some sort of conversations there but that isn't like cheating that is actually politics. It's trading things for endorsements trading things promotes like Bernie Sanders have to do a lot of that is president and CEO this. Because I think one lesson here on somebody. Who's very sympathetic. To a lot of the Bernie Sanders agenda in probably much more sympathetic than Joe Biden agenda but we actually need a transactional left like we need a left. That doesn't see the work of doing politics as dirty work The does not see dealing with people who they disagree with a somehow creating impurity among them and this was not just a problem for a couple of podcast like this coming from inside the house. Who is coming from inside the Bernie Sanders Campaign? I always thought about that. You made really good cases for Bernie Sanders. But you always emphasized the pragmatic side of Hindu often saw in Congress. And when I look back actually on some of the work you did like how. How much is sort of bought into it because I thought it was cracked? One thing that just strikes me. In retrospect is that I think it overstated that a little bit that that was true in Bernie Bernie contain multitudes and in the campaign he did not make that part of himself dominate. He did not manage his own campaign and instruct his own staff such. That was a campaign they were running instead. This other part of Bernie Sanders. It'd always been at war within him. That didn't really like the Democratic Party. That didn't WANNA make these concessions sort of one out and like in the end. They just weren't able to do like they were able to rallies but they weren't able to do the politics they needed to signal. The people who were already in their orbit felt like this was a candidacy for them. Wait I mean this is I think the the tragedy of this campaign is that I had this take that has now like not panned out about how you should pay a little less attention to what Bernie. Sanders says an a little bit more attention to what he has done that he you know operated as an effective mayor in a divided city council and Burlington that he has passed bills that he has critically like. I think the most important thing though is that like when Barack Obama needed Bernie Sanders is vote for like tepid half-measures to get over the finish line in the Senate like Bernie always voted for it. There is no legislation that was like spiked because Bernie Sanders had some totally like an inability to count votes. Or something like that and then I totally got why. He did not emphasize that as he was like gaining steam and he was building his his momentum and building his donor lists and staging rallies but then in February twenty twenty right when he looked like he might win and people were freaking. That is the time to try to lower the temperature right to try to soften your rhetorical stance to try to reassure longstanding members of the Democratic Party. That they want you to be president right that even if you're not their favorite that they'll be happy with your administration instead. He did that that tweet. That's like the democratic establishment. Can't stop me you know rather than like we're GONNA win and we're going to beat Donald Trump He he critically you were talking about. Were there promises made under the table to Buddha Gin and club chart and neither one question. I always had that is like that. That's politics like what did did Bernie Sanders. Do Anything to court their endorsement like he at at this moment when he was in the lead he starts talking about how he's definitely going to pick a vice president who is a medicare for all supporter when he could have been a chance to like hint around that maybe he would unify the party with VP from the more moderate way right and like what would the. What would the harm in that have have been? There's there's a great new translation out Of Max Weber's Seminal Essay on Politics. Vocation it's called charisma disenchantment because it it collects a couple of his things and what he what he talks about you know at the end is the difference between a politics of personal conviction and politics of ultimate responsibility and Bernie leaned so hard into personal conviction in the closing days of this campaign that the important thing was to hold your line and to surround yourself with other people who have always been pure of heart and it just doesn't work like it's a it's a great stance for like a preacher or the head of the small time activist group. But like you. Just you don't get to be president that way like big. Legislative changes are not made by unwavering guiding to your North Star. Until until the end of times I it doesn't it doesn't work like that and it's it's frustrating to me. Every time I say like this I think like Bernie supporters here me as like being critical of the idea of fighting for universal healthcare or something. But it's it's not it's like I I wanted to see something happen on these issues and you have to. You have to be better at politics. There's a very fundamental question when a political campaign or project you're part of loses and that is were. You failed or did you fail. And there's often a discourse on Bernie Sanders that he cannot fail. He can only be failed that the democratic establishment rigged against hammer meteoric did against him or or whatever it is and to be honest like Bernie Sanders crew was very disliked by Chris. Matthews and Morning Joe. But he's not disliked by Chris. Hayes and Joe Biden is not a well like figure in the media. He's like exactly the kind of figure the media doesn't like In many cases which is he's like not that like stumbles over his words and doesn't reach out to them. He's done as far. I know podcasting at all. Certainly for like young media figures. He's not he's a known figure but he does not have relationships that I can say that with some certainty and he like in Joe Biden Bernie Sanders was not facing somebody that the establishment quote unquote love Like there's that all the political science from the party decides like in this case party eventually settled on. It wasn't that the united around Biden early and just adored him and he was super exciting and so unlike Hillary Clinton had a lot of democratic establishment support like Joe Biden eventually like one which is just a very different situation because I think a lot of what's on the Sanders campaign is important and also because I want to see the people who are on that campaign continuing politics. I think it's going to be really really significant whether the voices from it end up dealing with question dealing with the question from the perspective of whether they failed in some way and have lessons to learn whether they simply were failed and have more people to add to the enemy list and on the one hand there's a lot of people in the Bernie Sanders orbit and so the fact that some of the most confrontational voices rise to the top of these conversations. Right we're talking much more here about what say the press secretary on the Sanders campaign things. What Fast Shaquir the campaign manager? Thanks and in some ways maybe what fashion care things more important but in another way like if these are the voices it dominate on social media that are signal of of where the Chicago like. It really is going to be important. What direction they take what I've been seeing from the mainly the enemy lescot longer right like it turns out in truth. That party will never let them win whereas what I see from campaigns and movements to do well is that they look at something like this and say okay. We didn't win but we got somewhat closer than we might of like. What did we do. Wrong what is your after action report like. Where did you fail and I mean we? You made the point Matt a second ago about the possibility of the unity EP. Pick for Bernie and I think some people might listen. That's ridiculous well Ronald Reagan. Who is considered the the guy who brings Barry Goldwater revolution to fruition does exactly that he picks George h.w Bush which functionally be like Bernie Sanders picking Joe Biden for VP. Like Bush was the moderate alternative to Ronald Reagan. And like that's part of how? Reagan unifies the party around him and takes the Party over right. That's really important here like you're not giving away your convictions. Giving away your principles. You're you're making it possible for them to to to win. And so there's a lot of good in the sanders campaign. I think he had a lot of good policies And he speaks to something really important but something I think he just really see if you look at the difference between him and some of the other candidates or some of the other parts of Democratic Party is the Democratic Party consistently like in his establishment forms looks at Bernie Sanders and asked the question. What can we learn like? How can we absorb this? What critique is here that we that we can hear and not all of them going that direction some counter position against it but as everybody says the recent sanders is moving the overton window on something because a lot of Democrats want to like absorbed some lessons and taking some of that energy. I hope the left is going to do the same thing. I mean I think actually Alexandra Cossio. Cortez if you look at her statements in the past couple of months. You really see her trying to do this like she's very careful on talking about Elizabeth Warren. I think she had almost exactly like this point where she said that. A good organizer doesn't blame people for not joining. They blame. They try to figure out what it is that made the people not want to join and so I do think some of the the rising left is seeing this clearly but also there are a lot of. I think there's actually going to be a real schism in the left here between the people who WanNa take lessons from this and keep building inside the Democratic Party and the people who want to use his to reject the Democratic Party Entirely and Phil left is going to win and help the people it wants to help and the people that I want to see how it's going to have to Fi- learn some of these lessons about just how to do day to day transactional politics like how to care more about winning in terms of your goals as opposed to beating the people you see as your enemies. Yeah so then just to flip this though like what I still see as the thing that mainstream Democrats as you say like they've been they've been watching Bernie and they've been watching Bernie's youth support and they're trying to see what they can learn from it but I think there's a thing that is being said loud and clear by younger people's support for Bernie Sanders that Democrats just don't want to hear because it's inconvenient and it's that a lot of people view the way the Democratic Party not the Democratic. Party's position on specific policy issues but the way the Democratic Party functions with kind of one foot in the camp of being a Labor Environmentalists Social Democratic Party that is speaks for the working classes and social movements and it has this other foot in the camp still of being a mid century American brokerage party with no real ideological content such that it is very accepted and in fact expected that senior members of Congress will step down and become lobbyists for corporate jobs and trade associations and that people after doing a stint on the hill or in an administration will not cycle into other jobs in progressive politics because they get bored or want to change of pace but will cycle into corporate work. And then be kind of welcome back right so that you can be sort of you know. Rahm Emanuel I think is a great example right like he can write an article for the Atlantic in which he's like a Democratic Party wiseman rather than a guy who's on the board of hedge funds or or something like that because he's both of those things because the Democratic Party is betwixt between and I think like a lot of people you saw this with Hillary and her speeches and it comes up over and over again. See that kind of setup as more corrupt and more corrupting than Democrats wanted to be. Because it's it's it's nice to be able to think that you can have a sort of a nice career and progressive politics and then also run the communications department at Mcdonald's and then stopped doing that and go on TV to say what you think about the primary and it would be a tough choice for the party to really refashioned itself as a ideologically committed entity but in this sort of polarized politics era like Democrats are the Left Party in America and so people who are you know. Acculturated into that as supporters is voters. They want it to act like a left party. Not like a kind of who have business party and you know a Biden is not going to bring that transformation that's like the opposite of him in his career and his circle. But I feel like there's a reckoning coming along these lines and that transcends like tactical and strategic questions about Sanders is campaign. I think that's all true and I think a good place to take this. Although I know we only so much time is that we're talking about Bernie hair. Because he just dropped out and this will be one less times we get to talk about his campaign on the show. But there's a real question just in the very immediate future about Joe Biden Biden needs to try to reach out to some of these people. You wrote a piece about how in many cases he's just not going to be able to but not going to be able to in shouldn't try are very different things and either piece today about how one of things really saying with Krona virus which is gonNA throw somewhere between like fifteen and thirty five million people off of employer assurance is how bad the employer based insurance program is Like what a deep original mistake in our healthcare system building health insurance around your job actually was and I've been like beating a trump forever but one thing that I think that Biden should do. His plan is not good enough right now like it was you know. It's a good backstop plan like his public. Option is a lot stronger than anything considered in two thousand ninety two thousand ten but he wants to reinforce the current system he will not let an employer by into his public option. He will not let an employee take the money. The employer spends on their healthcare and buy into his public option like unlike say Buddha judge. He's really not trying to build a path to like a more integrated national healthcare system. He's trying to do backstopping of the system. We have and I think he's not going to go all the way to Medicare for all nor given the campaign he's run. Should I think many of the political concerns about say like canceling one hundred sixty million insurance plans are correct but he should go a lot farther particularly given the way krona viruses changing the conversation and he should be explicitly looking for places where he can like rebuild parts of his agenda to absorb some of these critiques? Right like he can say yes. The left is right. The employer based system is bad. Boss should not control your healthcare ever and like he can do something about that. Critique without going all the way to single payer he can expand. I mean this climate plan. I got an a worse rap than it deserves. But he can expand his climate plan in important ways Dylan Matthews is a good piece today about it started as eleven policies. Joe Biden should steal from his not steal should absorb the campaigns he beat and actually bringing down to nine because two of those policies. It actually already been absorbed by the Biden campaign and Biden. Already in a very clear signaling. Maneuver said that he's GonNa agree to he's GONNA ABSORB Elizabeth Warren's bankruptcy plan which has been like one of the biggest symbolic disputes between the two of them so this is a time buyer on the Biden campaign where they may not win over the most hardcore Bernie supporters. But there's a real opportunity for them to show that they were listening are substantively expanding the agenda to respond to like what are genuinely good points at Bernie. Sanders has been making and wall. I like Corona virus is credited sort of flight to safety dynamic and politics and Biden feels too many people safer than than Bernie Revolution. It's nevertheless case that social democracy and a policy agenda built around social solidarity makes a lot of sense right. Now there are places it Bernie goes may be. Biden's shouldn't but they're places Biden doesn't go that he really should and like Bernie Sanders dropping out and having a lot of disappointed people behind him just like it like Bernie. Sanders is campaigns. Sometimes like was to focus on beating. Democrats actually win. The Democratic primary like Biden's campaign should not be so happy that has won the Democratic Party. That forgets it needs to do work unify the Democratic Party. This healthcare point though. I think that really speaks to like the ambiguity that I was pointing to because there's sort of two narratives around the Medicare for all dispute right in the Democratic Party and one of them is look. This is a question of political prudence. You don't need to enact a Big Bang Medicare for all style transformation in order to get everybody covered and it'll be politically easier to structure some kind of a glide path that that that works it out. The other narrative is single. Payer healthcare is an idea that works only corruption In the cloud of industry would explain why somebody doesn't back and both of those things are true right. There's like important truths to both of them and a issue for Democrats is that so many of them operate in the overlap of that space. Right were they will both say no. I have reasons of political pragmatism for not embracing this left-wing idea. It's not that I disagree with the principals but then they're also like cashing checks from the industry right and that is always raises. The question of like are you talking about the objective limits to what can be achieved or are you the objective limit to what can be achieved and the difference between a small gauge and a narrow gauge public option. Even though it's clear to me that like most people are not that invested in this but that really cuts to that point right is. Are you trying to create a public option that is limited in as many ways as possible to provide maximum reinsurance to existing stakeholders that they won't be disrupted? Or are you really trying to be as expansive as you can about this innocuous-sounding idea? Hey there's a government plan you can sign up for it if you want no big deal but like actually a very big deal right and p Buddha Jr had this plan that was they. Got The governor lumped together with the Biden like the moderates quote unquote. But like actually his plan. If you did it would have put you. I think pretty close to a single payer system. And that's very different. From like trying to be politically shrewd versus trying to sustain the status quo and buy anything is just too much on the status quo side of that line. I think that's correct. And so look like as with everything. Both sides are beginning to learn lessons from each other. I think the left needs to become a lot more comfortable with the day to day. Transactional work of politics and stop seeing that is somehow dirty or impure and at the same time. Biden President Party. They need to absorb to some of the ambition and principles impurity intercity the capability to imagine transformation to capability to imagine a future. That is radically better than the present like I think that's really important that Biden Sanders they got group did this restoration versus transformation framework or restoration versus revolution framework. But the truth matter is crony virus has blown all that to like. We are in an era of unbelievable disruption for everything we talked about in the first half of the show like the future is not gonna be like the past like we are. We are not in any way wiping the slate clean but there is crisis and there is at least some opportunity here and the moment calls for somebody who can matt who can somehow deal with two impulses in the electorate that I think are GonNa both be president and be contrasting on the one hand. Crank virus is going to create a desire for safety and a fear of disruption. Right if you're clinging to what you have and you're afraid of what you might lose. Somebody's coming in telling you they're going to double your taxes or take away your employer based care like that may not go well like one reason. Biden has been getting a bump from krona. Virus is at while some people look at him and say this guy's not being that President like I'm not hearing from that much. I'm hearing not that exciting. He's understood to be a steady hand and a capable manager at a time when people want that and on the other hand. Like you're going to need enough vision to rebuild the shattered economy and in many ways a shattered country in twenty twenty one and that's GonNa Respiration there like you can't go back because what was there is GonNa been blown up in many cases so you need be able to like see beyond that so by like you need to be able to have the vision to rebuild and build something new and like that is the lesson in my view the Biden needs to be able to learn from Bernie and others that yes like. Bernie's been on this forever like he's wanted to the same things for twenty years like you can argue like I like. That's a good thing about. It doesn't really matter. Point is that scale is important right now and one thing that Bernie had was he had scale and it turned out that a lot of people in the Democratic Party and in the country. We're looking for scale and then at the same time like you need safety. If Biden is smart he'll somehow try to merge those two together in a way he hasn't yet indeed all right So with that It's a it's a lot to To think over I hope you read all these. Pdf's about the different plans that are out there. And if anyone has has a better solution Please please tell tell the facebook group we will tell the world the world definitely could use some some better fixes right about now beyond that Thanks thanks to our producer. Jeffrey Geld and the weeds will be back on Tuesday.

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