19 Burst results for "Arima"
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"Fleek as example was really popular a while ago. Is that not cool anymore? Are the kids not saying on fleek? But at the same time, I think a brand a couple of years ago got called out for using it because it wasn't that kind of voice and it felt that they were trying to capitalize on young and black culture without actually representing any of that marketing. So having those active decisions when you're making a copy guidelines is something you can do internally and have it so anyone who's producing copy can be like, yeah, this is what we don't say. This is what we do say. There's going to be some hard words on there as well. There are certain words you just shouldn't put out in a marketing campaign that if I have to spell it out, there's a bigger problem here. One of the things I do is I look for bad campaigns. So I've seen some very fairy, like you wouldn't believe the levels. And even in the UK as well. You got to give me an example here. I know. Don't use any racist terms, but. Okay, so this was a few years ago. And to be fair, the person who published it wasn't a marketer, but it was on the company's website. So it was a gym in the UK. Someone published that their workouts are like 12 years of slavery, referring to the book. Oh, God. Yeah. There's this certain levels that you're just like, I didn't think I needed to add that to a list that I organization shouldn't do that. The one that got peloton in trouble was the husband or maybe it could have been a boyfriend buys the girlfriend who seems to be frustrated a peloton so she can get in shape and feel better and now she's keeping it trim and tight and she's so grateful to him for buying this gift. And I think the message was supposed to be about prioritizing your health and being supportive and maybe it was because it was a white man from an affluent background giving his beautiful white wife bike to go exercise. It kind of came off as like there was an old movie with Steve Martin, the father of the bride, where the fiance buys the wife of blender and she's like, what, am I supposed to be in the kitchen blending stuff? And she gets upset, and I won't defend peloton. Obviously that commercial isn't appropriate. I like it was a bad story as well. I'm sorry. I'm not married, but I would at least have a conversation before they spend a couple of grand on a bike. My wife wanted a peloton. It's funny. She's walking behind us and as we speak. My wife wanted a peloton for her birthday and as I bought her the bike before it was delivered, it was Christmas. And I bought her the bike and then the gift was a picture of a QR code with a link to that ad. And then it was a link to a spoof of that ad, it was like, you know, she breaks up with them. I think there was like an alcohol ad where she's at the bar like sucking down martinis because he was a creep and I was basically like for Christmas. I'm like, this is getting delivered to home, but let's make sure that you don't end up at a bar drinking because you're tired of me. This is what I think you said you wanted. But the story you have there is that you knew she wanted it. That could have been an amazing narrative of how many ways does people drop hints about their birthday gifts. And then eventually you give up and you buy the thing for them. And we've seen that. I also cheaped out and I bought what we call a peloton, it's an Echelon, and we have a TV, so we use the peloton app, but it's a different bike anyway. So one of the things I want to say about existed boxing as well. It is this more authentic aspect. It is looking at stories that are a little bit more realistic than it is just, oh, a wife and a husband or a happy partnership, they're going to just buy each other gifts and not have a conversation about it. Come on. Yeah. I felt like it was ironic that a year later I was buying my wife a peloton or an exercise bike. And I was like, I'm going to get in trouble for this somehow. I'm now a stereotype. Let's try to avoid this. Anyway, Joanne, I had such a wonderful time talking about this. And honestly, these are normally conversations that can be very difficult to have. I appreciate you coming on our show. Obviously representing a diverse background helping us be a little bit more diverse in our speakers set. But more importantly, helping marketers understand how to be more inclusive in their marketing strategies. It's something I truly believe is important. Thanks for coming on and being my guest. Thank you for having me and one quick tip I want to leave for everyone that they can all implement. Fire away. On all social platforms, you can add alt text to your photos and gifts. And that's a good way to engage with disabled community and have them access your content. You can start doing that today for free. Good tip. All right. Well, thank you. Something actionable to leave us with, and that wraps up this episode of the mar tech podcast. Thanks for listening to my conversation with Joanne Boyce, the founder of arima and co. If you'd like to get in touch with Joanne, you can find a link to her LinkedIn profile in our show notes. You can contact her on Twitter, her handle is Joanne Boyce. That's be a YC, or you could visit her company's website, which is arima company dot com. ARI MA company dot com. And a special thanks to HubSpot for sponsoring this podcast, whether you're business started last year or if you're filing for an IPO tomorrow, the HubSpot CRM is ready to scale with your business, no matter what comes next, with smart content optimization that helps you invest your marketing dollars where it counts an SEO tools that put your business ahead above the rest, HubSpot will help your business grow better. To learn more about how your business can grow better, go to HubSpot dot com. And also a special thanks to insightly for sponsoring this podcast in sightly as unified CRM elevates the customer experience by aligning sales, marketing and service into one platform to help your business sell smarter grow faster and build longer, lasting relationships, for a personalized demo, visit in tightly dot com slash martek that's insightly INS IGH tl Y dot com slash martek. Just one more link in our show notes I'd like to tell you about if you didn't have a chance to take notes while you were listening to this podcast, head over to martek pod dot com where we have summaries of all of our episodes and contact information for our guests. You can also subscribe to our weekly newsletter and you can even send us your topics suggestions or your marketing questions, which we'll answer live on our show. Of course you can always reach out on social media, our handle is mar tech pod MAR to ECH POD, on LinkedIn, Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook, or you can contact me directly my handle is Ben Jay shapp JP. And if you haven't subscribed yet and you want a daily stream of marketing and technology knowledge in your podcast feed, we're gonna publish an episode every day this year, so hit the subscribe button in your podcast app, and we'll be back on your feet tomorrow morning. All right, that's it for today, but until next time, my advice is to just focus on keeping your customers happy..
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"Campaign me time. Damn. And that's what it is. The implementation of inclusive marketing is not necessarily to limit or to kind of hold anyone. It's to expand creativity. It's taken what we've been laying on. Even myself, because it's easy when you have to put together creative in a day, it's easy to jump to a stereotype. It's easy to look at an old campaign and then let's update it a little bit, change the dial a phone to a mobile phone. But if we push the creative a little bit more, push the narrative and start to think okay, how can we make this touch as many people as possible but keep the story true? Then you get so much more beauty. There's so many campaigns out there that really tug a string at your heart. And then you notice the people in it. Then you notice that, oh, it was the nation guy I was leaving that. I didn't notice. I was too busy crying. I'm not safe for every campaign to make you cry. But I'd rather make you have an emotion before you notice who the person is. Okay. Walk me through more of the playbook. You mentioned that you're going through an audit. I kind of went on a departure and talking about some of the times that I've got in trouble and had to defend myself of like, nah, we produced two pieces of creative. We are marketing to men and women equally. We just separated out the creative. That was a stupid decision by me. Talk to me about more of the playbook and how do you make sure that you're maximizing your marketing ROI by using marketing inclusion? The other aspect is actually on that visual representation point. So you take a campaign, you have different people in lead, different photography. If you're on a smaller budget, it's just thinking about where you can source different stock photos that platforms that generate stock photos specifically of marginalized backgrounds, disabled people of color that you can access. But if you can tell a story, same story, but using different individuals is to lead, you can extend the reach of that one campaign without having to reshoot it every single time. And that, to me, is a good way to save on some money, 'cause you have to think of a new story or a new creative every single time. But it's also a way to kind of show how something affects different people. So that visual representation aspect and thinking also when you come to use influencers. So I mentioned earlier when we were talking about your equation and algorithm to bring people onto the show. When user influences a lot of time, people will go to a campaign and use the biggest influence or the biggest thought leader would not necessarily sometimes they have really shit engagement. They could have a million followers, but not one person would buy their product, I think. Time for a one minute break to hear from our sponsor, HubSpot. Technology trends become bona FIDE infrastructure shifts in the blink of an eye. If anybody asked me 5 years ago if QR codes would make a comeback and digital pictures of monkeys would sell for millions of dollars, I probably would have laughed. But consumer interests move quicker than even the most agile unicorn in the valley. Whether you started your business last year, or if you're filing for an IPO tomorrow, the HubSpot CRM is ready to scale with your business, no matter what comes next. With smart content optimization that helps you invest your marketing dollars where it counts and SEO tools that put your business ahead above the rest, HubSpot helps your business grow better. Learn more about how your business can grow better at HubSpot dot com. It's the Kim Kardashian effect where we talk about macro influencers versus micro influencers. You can work with Kim Kardashian and get this huge reach, but low engagement might have business results depending on what your product or service is, or you could work with 10,000 micro influencers that have a thousand followers each, but they're all actually family and friends and the engagement is much better. And that's exactly the formula for people from marginalized backgrounds because they're not held in the Kim Kardashian levels. The people that they engage with their community is so much richer. So if you were to work with ten influencers from marginalized backgrounds and underrepresented background, you might get a higher ROI than you would work in Kim Kardashian because those people are trusting because they're like, oh, you're not going to sell us out, they have a belief. You mentioned yesterday something that I think is important too, and it's more future looking, right? We're talking about while your existing marketing campaigns are you going to drive higher ROI through inclusive marketing. A lot of the younger generation is starting to think about the values of organizations where they put their money. How do you think about messaging what your organization's values are that you believe in diversity and inclusion? Where does that kind of stack up with? Here's our products. Here's our services. Here's why you should buy something as opposed to this is who we are, help me balance a company's mission and marketing their values as opposed to products and services. That's the interesting one because their mission should lead their marketing and it should be at the core of it. So this is why I also say if your values and you don't give a shit about it and you want to be a dinosaur and you don't care about the future and you're just like we're going to do what we're going to do don't bother. Honestly you're saving us all the hassle. But if your values are about let's say you have the best windows in the world and good windows could save lives. Whose lives are you saving? How can you tell that narrative? How are the different people that are living behind the windows you provide living their lives? How can you then connect that? You're still talking about Windows, which sorry if anyone sells windows, I think is a boring subject matter. But the story behind the window is what you're sharing. And that's how you connect with the younger generation. The younger generation gen X coming up, they know way more about inclusion than any generation before them because they've lived it. They're used to going on TikTok and engaging with people from different backgrounds, different ethnicities, non binary individuals. They're used to seeing that on the Internet and having access to directly talk to those people. Whereas a generations beforehand maybe not, maybe you lived in a small town and you haven't seen anyone different to you in 50 years. So future proofing. Your future proofing your marketing by thinking about diversity and inclusion and having inclusive marketing strategies, and we kind of walk through a little bit of the playbook. This is not a one time, hey, let's do an inclusivity audit, fix some things and move forward and forget about it. It's an ongoing process. Talk to me about the resources necessary to make sure that you're including inclusive marketing into your ongoing strategies. Do you have to hire an agency to audit you? Is this something that you can do internally? What are the best in class companies doing to make sure that this stays a primary focus for them? A mixture of things. So you can have training where you make it everyone's responsibility. What tends to happen a lot of time with clients is that someone different will join the team and then it's that person's responsibility to look after everything for whatever difference is. So if this is the first woman, she has to look after all the marketing to do at the moment now. Everyone needs to take ownership. So that's training, and that's awareness. And that's kind of where a lot of people are in their business. Then you have looking at the agencies you work with. So making sure you have a request for them. If you're going to provide us with influencers or content, we need it to be diverse and having that be a standard. And that's a process that you can implement in your brief in any kind of documents you have to make it easier to make it a thing that everyone thinks about when they're doing it. And internally, a lot of companies we've helped them build inclusive copyrights. So words that you want to avoid, words that your market or your target audience might use, like on.
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"Help you excel in all that you do. Thanks, Emily. If you're interested in hearing more from Emily Thompson on the being boss podcaster or any of the other great hosts in the HubSpot podcast network, go to HubSpot dot com slash podcast network. Okay, on with today's interview, joining us is Joanne Boyce, who is the founder of arima and co, which is establishing inclusive marketing as an industry standard worldwide. Marketing is the power to change society and arima and co believe that providing marketers with education resources and tools can change the way that they work to make a positive impact. Yesterday, Joanne and I talked about inclusive marketing and today we're going to continue the conversation talking about creating inclusive marketing strategies. But before we get started, I wanted to say thank you to insightly for sponsoring this podcast. Most businesses struggle to manage customer data and relationships across their teams. And site leaves unified CRM elevates the customer experience by aligning sales, marketing, and service into one platform, and this helps businesses like yourself smarter, grow faster, and build longer lasting relationships. Visit in sightly dot com slash martech for a personalized demo that's insightly IN si ght dot com slash martek. All right, here's the second part of my conversation with joy Ann Boyce, the founder of arima and co. Joanne, welcome back to the martek podcast. Thanks for having me back. Benjamin, so glad to be here. Excited to have you back on the show. You know, we actually had a longer than normal episode yesterday because we were having such a good conversation about what inclusive marketing is and it gets into the idea that you need to focus on a wide variety and different types of people and not just segment your marketing by, I don't know what stereotypical boundaries might be. So opening up to diversity in terms of ethnicity in terms of gender in terms of disabilities in your marketing effort to something that can not only help you increase your Tam, totally addressable market, but it also is the way of the future where younger generations are starting to prioritize the business relations that they have based on values. And if you don't have diversity and inclusion as one of your core values, you're a dinosaur. Now the problem is a lot of businesses don't know how to do this. So give me the playbook here. All right, I gotta start being more inclusive in my marketing strategies. Am I just creating ads with actors that are different skin colors that can't just be it, right? It's gotta be more than that. So much more. I was hoping it would be that simple, but I know it's not. It's not, but again, going back to what I said in our previous episode, it is marketing because the first thing I would say with your inclusive marketing strategy is to start with an audit, know where you are. Know what your representation is, know where you stand, know how people perceive your brand online, because if you don't know, you're not going to be able to gauge what the efforts have gotten you. You're not going to be able to gauge if you've expanded your audience, if there's been any shift or narrative. So start with an audit. And in that audit, start looking at your audience mark and personas and the segmentation of those. Have you ever considered disability race or gender when you're thinking of has that been a discussion within the team? Look at your website, how accessible is it for people who are using screen readers or other accessibility devices when it comes to the accessibility of the website? I do want a lot of my clients on this one. That is a project in the sense of you're going to improve it as the tech improves. Screen readers in the back in the days and screen readers now are very different websites back in the day and websites now are no longer hello world. They are very different. So put that part of your strategy throughout the year and check on that and make sure you review it and kind of understand how you can make improvements as you're building and improve the website, improving your content. But I say the best thing to do is start with an audit. All right, so you got to go through an audit and understanding what? Is it just who your targets are? Is it obviously you mentioned the disability, how accessible your website is probably something people think about last and it's not something that people think about it in marketing it's something seems like a technology solution can all people actually access my content. So I understand accessibility that seems like a technical solution, talk to me about how you figure out diversity and inclusion in your marketing. How do you think about ethnicities and gender? So one of the things we like to do is just tell you what your perception is online. The best way you can do it is probably ask someone who doesn't know anything about your business organization, what vibe is it giving? Would they work here? And depending on the people you ask, you get different answers. A client of ours was very proud of the gender split of their team and they used their team and all their marketing content. And when we did a audit of their website their socials, we found that even though their team was 50 50 gender split, which you would assume their content would be the content was actually 90% male. And this was a surprise to them because in their minds they were pushing every member of the team equally, but they weren't tracking it so they didn't know. So you hear it a lot in diversity and inclusion not to do a tick box, but when you come to marketing, we produce things that live on the Internet for a time period, you have to go and count it and count the perception of it, not what you know of the individual. So how is this being perceived and how would someone interpret this story with someone interpret the person sat at the desk as a disabled person? You may know that they are, but is it interpretable in that content? And you just go through and look at your website, your socials. And if you can find anyone speaking about your brand in a bad way. Unfortunately, that's also helpful because it's kind of honest ish opinion of how your digital presence is. Because sometimes this market is, we can blur the lines of how we see things. I got in trouble once and it was related to marketing to actually this was specific genders. I was working at a laundry and dry cleaning delivery startup. And I wanted to test a gender specific creative. And so we had a picture of a guy probably stereotypical is probably a white guy drinking a beer at home or going to a game being at a sports bar. And you can reclaim laundry day. Instead of sitting at home doing your laundry, you could be out doing the things that you want to do. And there was a companion piece of creative that was, do you want more guy time, the other one was, do you want more girl time? And the girl time was two girls sitting at a Starbucks or a coffee shop. Having a cup of coffee. And the people that saw the ad targeting women started getting upset saying that this is sexist. So the reason why I'm telling this story is I'm not sure how you create specific pieces of creative that target non diverse audiences. If you are targeting black, white, you know, every color you could possibly think of with specific pieces of creative, people will view that as being stereotypical, right? But sometimes putting that creative together might actually produce a better result. How do you think about targeting in your creative and your marketing efforts and how much should you be thinking about imagery that includes diversity or trying to put the same type of imagery in front of people that look like those images? There's a couple of layers there. So that specific example, I would have been what is the emotion you're trying to create and emotion is you want to create where people have control at that time. Taking the story back to then is looking at what the data says, when do people feel like they have no control at a time. If there's a gender split in that story narrative, maybe follow that and explore it. However, it could have worked the same way. You could have swapped out the person drinking a beer for a guy or a girl or someone non binary. Pretty universal. It was more and I don't remember if it was actually drinking a beer at a sports bar, but that's what I think of guy time. Get together with your buddies, go watch the game. And that's why I think it's really important to when it comes to marketing and I will preface this when it comes to boxing, bring the bias to the table. Because that was your interpretation of guy time. And if it was a room where you can say actually what's everyone's interpretation of me time, then that will impact the creative. It'll impact the story that's being told. Me time damn, where were you ten years ago when I was creating these ad, that would have been such a better campaign instead of guy time and girl time, a little bit more me time. Everything is shifted and that's another aspect of it. We could have done such a better job with.
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"If you can't wait until our next episode and you'd like to learn more about Joanne, you can find a link to her LinkedIn profile in our show notes. You can contact her on Twitter, her handle is joy Ann Boyce. That's CE, or you could visit her company's website, which is arima company dot com that's AR IMA company dot com. And a special thanks to HubSpot for sponsoring this podcast, whether you're business started last year or if you're filing for an IPO tomorrow, the HubSpot CRM is ready to scale with your business, no matter what comes next, with smart content optimization that helps you invest your marketing dollars where it counts an SEO tools that put your business ahead above the rest, HubSpot will help your business grow better. To learn more about how your business can grow better, go to HubSpot dot com. And also a special thanks to file stage for sponsoring this podcast. If you're looking to streamline your creative approval workflows, they are offering a free trial of their platform to mar tech podcast listeners. So go to file stage dot IO slash martech to streamline your review and approval process. Just one more link in.
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"Talk to me about the business benefit from inclusive marketing. At the end of the day, when you start opening up your target towards a diverse crowd, what can you expect from a benefit for your business? A wider market of people who are interested in your product. It's not just spray and pray. It's thinking about who's interested and can we tap in. And if that interested market does stop in, you can switch a whole bunch of people back on. In terms of Gen Z and millennials and the younger generations coming on board, they're buying intent right now is about 70% on the values of a company. So you could increase that buying intent when younger generation. I don't always like to play the age aspect of it because a lot of people like we want to target baby boomers or whoever whatever generation. But even if you're targeting a specific generation or specific market, making that marketing inclusive opens you up to a segment that's already interested. It not only opens up your potential Tam. You're totally accessible market. It also is the way of the future. That this is something that younger generations are increasingly prioritized. So if you want a larger market now, or if you want to be successful with your marketing efforts in the future, diversity, inclusion, inclusive marketing is something that is table stakes. It is something that you have to do. And that wraps up this episode of the mar tech podcast. Thanks for listening to my conversation with Joanne Boyce, the founder of arima and co for joining us in part two of this interview which we'll publish tomorrow. Joanne and I are going to continue our conversation talking about inclusive marketing strategies..
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"Was maybe a one and needed to go to 5. And then psychology just became known as this thing that helps people who are very seriously ill. And we forgot about that aspect. So everyone in that aspect was like, oh, you're fine. Even though you're operating at a one and not a ten, you'll find you're not at minus ten. Algorithms have been operating in this minus area because they've only been benefiting certain people white men. Therefore, they have been able to build a large followings and build up this audience. So when the people who have been not benefiting from algorithms and systems come along, they're starting at a disadvantage. But it's not always transparent. However, don't quit me on where it came from, but there is some research out there that says individuals from marginalized backgrounds. When they do have a following, even if it's smaller, they're following tends to be higher engaged because there's less of those people to look to. That's an interesting thought that the algorithms that have been working for the last ten, 15 years in these social networks, bias towards people that they think are going to be able to help the social platforms, which are people that basically had an unfair advantage because of their demographics. Here's the other hard part that was figuring out our algorithm is let's say the score is a one out of a hundred score where a hundred is like we got to get this person on the podcast they're a real influencer and the average person is 50. I was sitting here saying how do I evaluate if we're going to give a boost towards people from diverse backgrounds or we want to be supportive of women in the martech industry? How do I quantify what type of boost they should get to be inclusive in our marketing efforts? Is it a 10% boost? Is it a 100% boost?.
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"I've spent a lot of time thinking about this in part because some of the content that we produce is about diversity and inclusion. I believe that my audience cares about it. I personally care about it. And I think it's important, and we were trying to think of ways to be inclusive in our guest selection process. And I had mixed emotions. So we have an algorithm that we've built that helps us evaluate the potential reach of people that fill out our speaker application. So we look at things like your LinkedIn profile, your Twitter profile, your domain handle, how many email followers you have..
"arima" Discussed on MarTech Podcast
"If I'm selling a marketing technology is it true that my brand has to think about diversity and inclusion first and foremost as opposed to hey we're a technology vendor and we want to build the best technology for the people that focus and that should be front and center. Talk to me about where the line is and when are basically people just being full of shit because that's what they feel like they should be saying. Obviously you should focus on diversity and you should focus on inclusion and you should think about a wide market and I don't want to make it seem like I don't believe in those things but I feel like sometimes brands are putting that before the sort of core message that they're trying to market to. Brands should be authentic and that's what people are asking for. I would personally prefer if a brand said nothing that it put across a fake message. I have advised clients in the past not to put out things because it wasn't authentic because I knew that the relationship between the marketing and the sales team needs to be close to relationship between leadership and the direction of the companies needs to be on point. If you're going to receive backlash like H and M did in 2018, or you can receive backlash like other companies have. You need to have something to stand on. If you don't give a shit, I'd rather you be authentically not given a shit. But if you do, and even in a marked tax situation, even if you're developing softwares that are going to be users of your software and inclusive marketing incorporates all aspects, gender, race, ethnicity, accessibility, and representation of disabled community. So yes, it may be white men on top, but they may be queer. They may be disabled. They may be other things that you're doing to marginalize people who are buying your products, that you haven't even considered. And that's what the Roosevelt is. Time for a one minute break to hear from our sponsor, HubSpot. Technology trends become bonafide.
"arima" Discussed on Data Skeptic
"And at the same time, we have several thousands of stores. So the combination of unique SKUs and stores is usually in the region of millions or even billions sometimes for instance for Walmart or target. So when you have such a massive number of times series and nowadays, you usually have to produce forecasts quite frequently for the fresh produce it might be even twice a day, but you need to produce forecasts. You can imagine that the computational burden is quite relevant here, publishing focus for a simple time series it might be half a second using standard physical methods. But if you multiply this half second with billions of SKUs based time series, then this becomes problematic. And usually companies use web services to produce this forecast. So all of this comes to a cost that is effectively measurably. Yeah, I can see if I have to do so many of these time series forecasts half a second or however long it takes times a billion is a lot, but why can't I just lean into the cloud and do it all massively parallel? You come, but still this again comes to a cost. So it could employ emotional web services, a big cluster, but at the end of the month, Amazon will send you a bill for the usage of that. And of course, the molecule have consumed the bigger the bill is. The point here of our research is how we can effectively minimize this cost of the computation for producing difficult forecasts. However, without harming the forecast calculation, so keeping the focused accuracy the same, if not better, but at the same time, making the computational burden less. In some ways, that sounds like a free lunch. What's the secret behind it? Well, the ship behind it is that there are so many models nowadays. In our attempt as academics to capture every possible pattern that exists out there every possible data generation process. We have a device over the years, all of these many different models, all these many different variations of exponential smoothing or arima models. And the fact is that if we even were in a position to select the best model in the best parameters, nobody would currently accept this particular model instead of parameters would be still the best in the future. So even if this is the best data we have, maybe another model will be the best to produce good forecasts. So my point is that we don't really need all these number of all these large number of models either in the exponential motion family or in the Remo family. So using less models and still being able to capture the basic time series patterns that is trend in seasonality, then effectively your search for optimal decreases. And you have a good enough model to produce good enough forecasts for whatever comes ahead, which you don't know whether this might be the same as before. It might be something that changes. And of course, this line of research, if we go back in the 80s with the work of maki vac and the forecasting competition back then, where he showed back then that simply exponential's moving models can effectively outperform the state of the art back then, which was arima book and Jenkins Morgan. However, since then, the exponential family increased a lot in size. So back then we have maybe a handful of models. In our days we have 30 different exponentials moving on. And that's exactly my point. Do we need all of these models? Do we really need or if you wish are we able to differentiate between a certain combination of trend and seasonality that is let's say multiplicative trends with additionality or multiplicative additive spend and so on and so forth, or maybe we should test have a set of simple models that collectively can cover all these different focus profiles and thus decrease the computational cost, the search for an optimal model if you use. So the whole research lies in the lines of simplicity. So simple models could produce good results even better results from more complicated models. But also lies in the sphere of some of the malady, which is effectively even if your model or your parameters are suboptimal, then this will not necessarily harm the forecast arches because optimal or suboptimal this categorization is based on the current data and future data might not be the same as the current data. The idea of a simpler model is very intuitively appealing to me. I think occam's razor is a good heuristic. But I'm curious how you measure simplicity or maybe you measure its inverse complexity. How do you know how simple or complex a particular model is? In this particular case, we explore different language of models. And I think we take a different approach when it comes to this between exponential think and arima. I will start with sarima, which is more straightforward. More complex animal model is a model with a higher degree of parameters. So in other places and moving average components and you may have several orders authority and at the same time, several are all moving average. And I'll find things say that when it comes to yearly and quarterly data, a maximum order of one or two is enough to achieve the best performance either in terms of point forecast accuracy or uncertainty, but at the same time, the least completion of cost. So for arima family of models, the complexity essentially is measured by the order of the model. Index fund is more thinking, though, then we have three components if you wish. We have level trend in seasonality, and while we don't decrease the number of components, what we do, we try to reduce the number of models through which our algorithm goes. So instead of going through all 30 models of the transitional thing, we define add induced set of models with contains 8 models and these models can cover all the focus on profiles when it comes to trend and seasonality. Could you elaborate on what those 8 models are and why they were selected as the 8 of choice. So we have 8 exponentials moving models in our reduced set. And these are mobile contains only level, no threat or sustainability. And what they would contain strength are modeling and a model would stand in seasonality. And here effectively we have four models and then we have another four models for our multiplicative type of error. So we have four models for other type of error and four models for the macula backfire. Overall, models that we exclude are models with multiplicative trench, which have shown to have explosive forecasts, and also we exclude models where the type of the error does not match the type of decision value. Well, if you're able to get pretty good if not better forecasts without using any multiplicative trends, it almost implies that set of research or things working with that area aren't adding a lot of value to the big picture here. Is there some tradeoff I'm not seeing? Are you maybe making your approach, not applicable to some niche area? How can you get by without this popular technique? Well, I think that including multiplicative trench from Africa perspective makes sense and makes if you wish the whole exponential moving framework more complete. At the same time, though the exclusion of a multiplicative trench is something that rope high and I discussed, I think it was 2015 of 2016 and after our discussions from device he said, very popular focused package for our software to set the EPS function which produces forecast for 20 more things. So that might look at the trends are excluded by default. We experimented with some M competition data. I'm architect competition data. We saw that excluding multiple trends actually brings us better results. So as I said, I think the same argument goes back to the 70s already,.
"arima" Discussed on Data Skeptic
"Reema over a remus sin. Like i didn't do. You need more data for it to become effective. Or what's the use case there. If any i remind tyrannize actual needs a very crisis. Komodos what we knew. Canada is actually just do countries at the mortar. The modern approach of iron is removed from elisa. Angola thanks to get some incremental improvements. This idea and the we're going to disarm problems if you use a remorse daraghmeh are you may source than those problems are unpredictable and we saw those problem may not be unpredictable. Based on our lances this kid point. This is studying point. Well i was going to say we're going to replace i- remorse target just want to make some incremental contributions and into kansas in from arriva. I'm gonna so some real problems. This how precision another reason maybe to use the more traditional techniques is because arena sin requires a bit more training. You should know about spectral analysis and linear systems analysis. A bit in order to properly use it. Do you think that will always be a barrier or do you envision a day when machine learning will do the fine tuning into nine google machine learning or artificial intelligence in the end. I actually believe that. The machine learning motor official intelligence border. Huma do listen to fight tiny that models this see the true but how can will choose. Aren't i think the process is all very deng on the cruises and this moment Women not achieve that. But i think we can. Vacate is the end after the efforts of the researchers from the hull. Would maybe we come make. And this moment is not possible to use machine learning to fight time anymore though are any focused program any trainee anymore to catch the time where i i. Don't think that is possible this moment. But i think that can be a cool to pursue to achieve. Well it's always good to hear someone say that it's not possible to do something with machine learning 'cause then usually six to twelve months. We have a paper published showing it. Yes yes it's bad to actually kind of the aero time-series civil nobel is work on time series but the problem is this area is that many many beautiful servicemen many beautiful results but the problem is we still cannot predict royston postings very dukes verse symbol for example you cannot predict the twin of stock market cannot pigment reveal if you can predict where where everyone can be very rich but we cannot predict roy and many other problems. Simple problems look simple but you still cannot predict where we will and the machinery Should be very important technologies but there is still a lack distance from rooney appliances models to solve real. Problems gives some real benefits. I think you still like difference. Not like these or you make it. A point are many many papers. Van's cab your paper. Machinery focused. he. Actually most of the papers cannot be used in practice for example. Let's say this very interesting problem if you ask many researchers even professor as we can we predict a demand for s q stock capping unique of everyday usually the this is not predictable but actually in companies. They have this demand. The how this request alibaba or amazon. I think because if you can predict this room will and then they can make decisions. Will you winter decisions. Assortment decisions so subtle scenes. So i think the arosa many papers can be published but this does not equals the problems especially the focusing problem concerts focused purpose is reality soft for practically a union practice. This vacation and this problem. I think in that direction. You're right there are many papers published and not as many of them can be practically used. What is your vision for. Making armagh sin usable. How can people get their hands on the tools or software and start trying out the technique language sees when you make some ideas or make some. You have some jurors to solve some problems. You make this paper on available for example put the archive or just the first thing because you can share your ideas with everyone. One is a word. Count approach that year. The sickness were important and also recruiters. You should open and public your source code because for papers because this is quite simple the code is quite simple but if this is very complicated is not easy wishes related. Make it available under topic accessible because this will attract the waste of the hilbert to push this area forward. You'll cannot be as small minded which means you only keep your own scenes and developing developing. That's not good. The the better thing is open make more open source available and then we can push this area forward especially for forecast. Because i'm very interesting focused. Actually this i'm muslim many also of this paper. You can chick i. The first is made june national university of singapore while walk to their budget. What this Problems this forecast the first hour. The may australia's very interested in this digital flittering spectral chances but i'm very interesting forecast so we find the communists under developed this paper but go back to your question. I think the first thing is sharing rider sickness. Share your coat surtees shero problem which is beta. If we can't make this these everyone can put effort on this three. I think the machinery and the most specific Tanzer is focused com. Develop the fast. I think this is very important. Share your idea. Sugar baked code shero data. Actually that they cannot be shared too much and this moment especially those eight from real would. From companies there are some equal issues in some countries are budget. I think is necessary for researchers. Are either people quite interested in this area. It's very important to reducing great points in maybe on the last one we say share your data responsibly. And that'll cover it broadly. Yes that's good. Well maybe the wind up. I think we've covered the paper pretty well. Would you spend less time with a speaking a little bit more. Broadly about your work in forecasting in general are there other techniques or things that are going on. Now you're excited about you can shoot them. Google scholar page and propose new a framework focusing which is hierarchy before custody at coit out hierarchy learning this hierarchical forecast hierarchy on murray of fries down two scenarios firstly regressions taking these vacation the is just -tuation described. Just now well. I approached retail problems. Their point of sales problems. We look at the data. Viz find rich data which is because the data from point of sales. Machines is very vaguely. intel's u. s. k. u. is stood stock unique very specific description for item is still you once. They can on one specific store. You feel alive since that data is very difficult for you to alliance direction usually do some aggregate but if you the daytime high angrily will you can't focus. The independents were near. The problem is with this forecast results. You cannot make the decisions were because if you want for example you can focus their hurt. The total amount of the her us for particular product is useful. Forecasting results cannot approach your specific decisions. Such as human decisions for specific stole and demand fulfillment decisions are settlements. Taking sort of sense. You cannot make better if you focused very new angra gauge problems for causing problems for of this grow into aggregates focused bravo were reveals good but there is a relationship between this aggregate and high aggregates naval if you sum up all this new aggregate data. You should be equal. Chooses haagen nate how to use this relationship to develop some new focused in from framework and learning framework. This is my area and this regression problem for the problem is the same. Will you'll new candidate the item for example. You've kind of people better. If you just look on his body parts for exam look on his finger. You may sort okay. This is not his finger. This may be just a seminar products but if you look at the background of this as finger finger there is a hierarchy will which is the high anger they will close quench label should be consistent with no angry because in probably you cannot say you. Under the label of small awol. I ended up to highlight with started problem the raccoon learning or hiraoka focus. You can be applied time series because in times there is damage dementias. You can do the hirakawa scenes in first time. Second location or space survey will. He's the i two because this cease. I'm walking on very interesting. I'll be sure to ever lincoln the show notes to google scholar to follow up there. Thank you so much for coming on the show and sharing your work. Thank you thank you back. Includes another installment of data skeptic time-series. Thanks to our sponsor today quantum metric our guest chung show lee myself. Cloudy armbruster as associate producer. Vanessa bligh guests coordination and our host kyle polish..
"arima" Discussed on Data Skeptic
"It really works. And it's not because this moment we can just apply this sarah model in different cases for example if the time series than the violent coherent correlation for this to series we gave some high zorich co lines which means we generally the model based on the ground. Truth more as But in billboard problems as i eyesight this well currently counts as part true dwayne up some more specific data out driving spectral. Honesty's was you said you may not have you know a lot real world data sets but we have some toy examples that play out the method very well in the paper. Could you describe maybe the circumstances under which you can really see the performance difference between the arniston and the traditional zarema is zinc the second section of our paper. We give some a toy examples to illustrate the advantage of for example. If we investigate. Sarah i'm on my seeing more do based on a real. I'm i'm is four one and we stitch the you can see the paper the finger and we have Used the one hundred times of motorcars munition. An average prediction messy. And we'll find onto the era of ira massimo these much smaller than there on model this aging of this. The days i say hoa generate betas follows standard procedure with spokes. Jason message estimate says no. I remind which is tom order with a standard procedure which can be employed in our pancakes and the appreciable used to traveling says no difference but if we use ama- seymour do we use our procedure direction. And the week we get better results. How would you describe the improvement. Is it incremental or like an order of magnitude improvement as and this momentum is incremental. And do you have sense of any real world. Problems may be specific industries or areas of science where this technique would likely be especially beneficial. I think we're going to apply this leukaemia problems in retail because even focused on retail is i. He's very important per second. This problem is very complex. For example if you want to predict the demand of product category which means for example if you want to protect the demand although phoolan all therefore or cities is lower than difficult because this anger neighbor were high for example if you want to predict the demand for specific product as for example want predicts the that the amount of the newest iphone and the air is our safety and in this specific aero maybe is very noisy. something's and also is the time energy state. Say if you want to predict the the demand of iphone for each day to pacific area this problem if you candidate. Some statisticians may seagate's let's cover is unpredictable. Which means this cobra. How many noise actually from the practice point you. If you'll come predict this so-called very noise data you can solve their high on aggregate problems. Where will be because you is up to the batteries us so this is a sin. But you you kind of worry. Aggregate enable the state has is you. Oh you apply the traditional mazars. I remarked remind lord and easy. So we're going to our new candidate. Tom with guests that maybe we can use their. I remind seymour and this moment because some results were going to publish Is not appropriate to discuss this unpublished work. And.
"arima" Discussed on Data Skeptic
"And for good reason as are its siblings. Arena and seasonal remo or serena. These are widely deployed techniques sometimes blindly deployed techniques and. There's good empirical evidence to be using these techniques however when you investigate these things a couple of other perspectives like spectral analysis linear system theory and digital filtering. They take on a whole new light. There's a conversion process that data will be put through by these techniques in order to make it a stationary time series in other words difference in out any trend or seasonality to make it stationary. However that process can actually be a little bit lossing. In this episode. I talked with chung show lee one of the authors of the paper. Why are reema and serena not sufficient. My name is chung show carney associated professor and the southwest johnson university in trump province in china. And can you tell me a little bit about your specific research areas. What do you study my research areas. Congress daytime my machine learning and data analytics gender most specifically focused on forecasting demand focusing in retail and time series focused sich of sees. So the main pay for. I asked you on to discuss. Today is wire arena and serena or s arema not sufficient. You'd mentioned you have a good background in machine learning. I don't necessarily think of a reema as a machine learning technique. How do these two areas fit together in your mind. Actually because the site focused teams all problems and can be served by machinery and when the approached this focusing problem with fines and attorney time service models are very important solutions to forecast team problems. Other side focused is very important in today's areas because you're low many many data so always Focused in problem. We find penser is very important and we also find iron man. Sarah map and armagh. Those are very classic. Run divided news time service motives and when we do couldn't this i remind saruman model. We're fans than actually the classical extre nation or classical. Modern for iran. serena is northern sufficient sarichichekli. Either way actually approach. I remember sarim from elisa angle which is spectral lenzi's digital delivery and in your system theory so we use elisa angle to do countries a romance. I remember motive defines onto loads dench a sufficient from the rich porno view. So this is the whole ground actually starts from computer science. And i do can they as focused in problem because forecasting problem is very potent. So in new concerns i remember i remember those from another this whole idea and the hope and ground of this paper. So rima and essary remodels models. Have i believe some sort of guarantees and certainly a long history in the literature. What is attractive about techniques. Like these sinks. The iron makes a very important contribution on the so-called lung stationary time series forecasting because they can solve those non stationary time series models using the difference. Operator because as you know. I remember is the rich very beautiful that you got only approach. The coyote show the stationary panzer is focusing program on the other side in the real practice. The problem faced usually are lung station so how to transform. Those non station returned to risk problem to stationers. Tides hampshire is very important probe and i remind us over seven point elegant way to do this job. So he's attracting. This either reason in my opinion but lee finds the transformation i remote thus is not sufficient and actually we can do more because we're essentially the differentiation operator is actually can be expanded as a digital poetry than allows frequency components and realize no from cuisine components for the dior difference operator. So let's see our findings so that digital filtering on one hand. I guess maybe naively. I could look at that and say oh. It's probably good. It's taking out noise in the data. How is that the rung intuition because this regarding lahser you shoot when your candidate. Times data on the traditional explanation is voiced that pinpoint you got observation from the signal precision. Porno view is actually the pan domain. But actually you can do the cancer steak from the franck was doman so you feel with the boys. They exist though from quiz components and hybrid components the job of digital richer. Richer is to remove those from zero high from crusade. Depends on your design. Yes he remove those laws so this is a lesson as you point out in the paper. These methods end up distorting the data at certain frequencies in those are desirable frequencies that you'd wanna have so that's kind of a weakness or an achilles heel in the model. What was next once you had this observation. Yes actually our paper. We just to propose a very gender macer which is called. I remember same. Although i will do spectral lance and digital delivery and then to plow the focused. Let's he's quite simple from work i do. Is i for the spectral orleans We should develop some data dependent digital retrieve such this ritually. Let's furniture universities is a difference operator. Career affects the characteristics of the data. Which means this kind really removes alois. Because the noise kyle resistant different forms. Sometimes it's not easy for you until you find it. For example in some data points ladies annoys is low frequencies sometimes lowest. Be the high from so state dependent operator the freezer. So let's see the next job. We're going to do so. I'd love to dive deeper into the spectral analysis. I think you did a good job describing how you know noise can be in different parts of the frequency. What is it about the army sinn model. that's able to capture that. Are you actually modeling out the noise in some way or what's the next step there and actually did not apply this whole moldy are specific programs. We just was unspiritual. Allowances are electoral by going to some find. Some are real world problems and apply or miscarriage too series..
Why ARiMA Is Not Sufficient
"Name is chung show carney associated professor and the southwest johnson university in trump province in china. And can you tell me a little bit about your specific research areas. What do you study my research areas. Congress daytime my machine learning and data analytics gender most specifically focused on forecasting demand focusing in retail and time series focused sich of sees. So the main pay for. I asked you on to discuss. Today is wire arena and serena or s arema not sufficient. You'd mentioned you have a good background in machine learning. I don't necessarily think of a reema as a machine learning technique. How do these two areas fit together in your mind. Actually because the site focused teams all problems and can be served by machinery and when the approached this focusing problem with fines and attorney time service models are very important solutions to forecast team problems. Other side focused is very important in today's areas because you're low many many data so always Focused in problem. We find penser is very important and we also find iron man. Sarah map and armagh. Those are very classic. Run divided news time service motives and when we do couldn't this i remind saruman model. We're fans than actually the classical extre nation or classical. Modern for iran. serena is northern sufficient sarichichekli. Either way actually approach. I remember sarim from elisa angle which is spectral lenzi's digital delivery and in your system theory so we use elisa angle to do countries a romance. I remember motive defines onto loads dench a sufficient from the rich porno view. So this is the whole ground
"arima" Discussed on Latin Whimsy with Magister J: Mirabile Visu...
"Latin yeah yeah. The void of outer space earth glimmering near us round blue so magical all m v people united on the planet from india to australia from africa to europe. Nba and as you learned in episode ten we are sailing through outer space in orbit with the earth around the sun in our titan chariot this is the chariots of geijer race arima whittam a casino our three steeds burying the first line of virgils immortal. Aeneid our guiding us. I sing of arms. And the man with me are rene descartes and civil. The soothsayer civil has been holding the reins of the time chariot but getting carpel tunnel so to exercise her wrists. She is playing socks zone. Carta four affects with rene. You might not as rock paper. Scissors sox zome carter. Ford affects sock. Zoom carter ford affects ton her. Meanwhile we navigate the mystery of space in last place but speaking of rock paper and scissors. What's this giant rocks forming before us. They argue big witness everywhere. We are competing in this cosmic race with fortuna the roman goddess of good fortune the polygamous brothers against the so called Boys who constantly conjugate. What's that i hear. They detaille what what is fortuna saying. Desist detaille that means stop. Fortuna was in first place over tuna. Why is she back here telling us to stop what is happening ahead look. Mvp's a formation. A mysterious connection Conjugation day a mood us a wall. We must stop the time chariot before we crash into the motors of meteors meteor from the modern latin media room sybil. It's it's monumental so from late latin monumental. He's an impenetrable wall of solid rock. It's blocking out the stars that guide us wait for tuna and civil are hatching plan. They seek the key to safe passage. If there is one the future for tourists can be a wall or a window a morris or finesse. Stra that slowly closes on us. We may be crushed by the conjugation to co joining of meteors. Unless we can act but but how we must. We must work together. The ammo boys are organizing random rock into the famous first conjugation verb Oh man. I don't see someone. They are straightening out the meteors with their neak conjugation of first second and third person singular and plural the harmonic of their clean congregations resonate with the rock like the music of the spheres g. Look the polyphemus brothers are painting. The freshly organized conjugation with popcorn balls. Transforming moore's into a really interesting mural kellyanne full art opens passages to imagination. but we still can't get through. what for tunas telling symbol that we need a four word incantation to finish the trends formation for words one word from each of our four chariots to change solid rock into a glittering window. I have it ostra. Patter us to the stars. Through hard work what a motto that would make at j. behold the mural of meteors is turning into a window of wonder it's opening and closing. We must all go through the window at the same time. Yes we must defenestrate together. It worked it was hard work but we did it. There are the stars again. We came to the stars through hard work and we all finished the chariots of geijer race seymour or in english simultaneously. And so it is. Mvp's when we work together all of us from all nations all of us on the big blue marble we call earth. We can work wonders. We can do things. Belay v sue wonderful to behold those bagpipes. Come from by the way and remember none skoda said pro vita not for school but for life economic aca kkk kkk..
"arima" Discussed on News 96.5 WDBO
"By story claim based on £2500 per shelf. When evenly distributed. See store for details when we see the Getty passport, but we're gonna get a passport to go in saloon, North Orlando. C one point it's up the middle level. Several doctors move until now come, sit up or stand up a little. And this isn't a dress Mrs. He didn't tell Subaru Shadow Love Event Somebody. Donatello Simple Cinquanta, dollars American some political quicksand Telecom wearing them in the river server facilities and start again if some benefit local Subaru North Orlando Donatello Simple Cinquanta. Dollars Additional is Arima Scaramanga Comrade Finicum Instrument Imminent. Exclusive romantic What amazes basically from Mimi, just several North Orlando classics. Karen Google Common, Consistent Area several numero Uno in Orlando. The character No. The argument is the son of the sensation of feeling Maybe those significant even 300 questions because we think you might consider coming. Hey several hours thinking it'll succeed. No secular Rachel Singer, but very narrow, gallows elbow. Single amigo. Chemist absconded soon, amigo mascot. People seem very because you're embarrassing..
"arima" Discussed on MyTalk 107.1
"The Guardian reporter that she spent the summer on her own at home in London, reading poetry out loud and watching films. Any in the Guardian asked all of it alone, and she said no, no common and she said I couldn't confessed to breaking laws, you know? How you know So anyway, And the fact that you know people are saying Yeah, he basically said, Oh, yeah, I have feelings for Maybe he's been in love with others that you was 21. Apparently, Dominic West spends half the year being a doting husband and father. Okay? And then half the year family filming and just being gone chasing Okay, women. And having affairs because there what happens on the film set is on stays on the film sets like Vegas that way. You know, Don't you think there's a code of silence on those film sets for the most pro? They were hot bed of gossip. I mean, builders, insider stuff. What happens, But they're working. They don't want to be, you know, like, go from their jobs. Wait, that that I mean, I always feel like Hollywood is causing the below the line people. They know everything that's going on the hair. The make of the catering. I think they do. Don't they know everything? His people just kind of forget that they're there and They don't realize how much those trailers that likes our camp. You forget everything. You go away. There's no way I don't want to say anything. They don't want to lose their right. Right. Everyone knows that those trailers that what's his name from Carol Burnett, the guy, the tall guy who just died Arima, Carmen No. The other one. Wagner always Wagner. He's got the star wagons that are yes, everyone uses, um on the lots of TV and movies. Those those star wagons have a bit of a bounce. Okay, minus the Fleet Street world, according to man Know if it's really you know. Of somebody's vigorous Listen, T Yu. I think they've worked on the suspension since the early days. Laurie Julia, do you think they just still give it a good up and down? A bone and so to speak. Yeah, no, Just think about like standing You know, I honestly do you hear what she's saying? Walls counters? Yeah, there's aways for, you know, thrust happen and the sterile quest into suspended reality for four months at a time. This is beautiful costar. What? The hack that hard It will be interesting. I'm sure the producers of this movie the pursuit of Love's during Dominic West and Lily James. They're like maybe even glad the pandemic is going on, because they're hoping everyone will forget about it when they have to go and promote this movie because the irony of the pursuit of love, and then they were pursued in Rome, and they did the photo shoot, and they're having an affair and It's just all Hollywood. So Hollywood. It's also how you and Lilly, you know, she played such a delightful character her She wasn't on that afternoon down Abby, but member he played like somebody's niece. The only needs we haven't even seen that movie. Don't have no, that's delightful. I worked on the puzzle. They gave us a puzzle. Um, 1000 piece puzzle, and it's the other characters in front of the doubting everything that it's all black and dark. And I, for some reason, lost the cover of the box. That was all I get it? Yeah, I lost it somewhere, and I keep you know I have a puzzle Keeper thing. Rocco. It's like a ah cardboard thing that folds and folds and stuff and you shove it under a couch or a table or something. But I just finally gave up on it. And I wish I went off. Yeah, I'm gonna look a puzzle keeper and star wagons. No, these are keepers are great things to have because it's getting close to puzzle season. You know the indoor darkness. You need a really good light, especially if Lori gives you the puzzle. Starry, starry night, which took me the first two or three months of covert to do because every color blue looks the exact same in the grey skies to realize I don't know you're a puzzle person. Me that's massive. Although I've been otherwise entertained lately. Yeah, good. You even had to resort I have had to resort to my puzzles. It's good. Just going back one second toe that please, cos Well, I was I was even thinking we've never seen anything as odd is that press release their press conference. And letter coming outside the day after these explosive photos when he dosed with his way with his wife when he was caught scooter handed, and I remember you, and I think he how could anyone be so gullible is to believe any story cruel. To make their wife do that? Yeah. Two days after he was having this. These this dalliance in Rome. There's no alibi creative enough to Splain that spleen that away. Did something shady wasn't going on. You know, in shady was why were you never lean Her ear at a cafe always was whispering to her was so loud and I mean, you know, it's just It's You know, why was your hand on her? That was just her like something dropped on her lap. I didn't have the wind blew. Then you know, why did she have a hippie? Oh, because she got stuck in her scarf when it pulled tightly. Why was your hand on her breast? Oh, my gosh, that I don't know. That was a camel camera angle. Totally on the feds, Right? Okay, Listen, we come back. What are we going to talk about? Oh, yeah, we've got we got a little music news and we've got maybe knows you didn't need to know. Nothing but good times getting up with Jason and Alexis. So here it is unedited, the raw recording session of radios down a valentine.
Fueled By Climate Change, Hurricanes Are Causing Industrial Accidents. Who's Liable?
"So, you just got back from the Gulf coast where you were covering Hurricane Laura. How was your trip? The, hurricane damage was really bad. You know a lot of people down there have lost their homes, which is hard to see. Yeah and just to remind everybody Laura was the one that hit the Texas Louisiana border in August. This storm is clearly roaring. You're reaching that critical moment here. This now joins an elite group. It's in the top ten, a small elite group of the most dangerous hurricanes to ever make landfall into the US residents along the Gulf coast are bracing for potential devastation, Hurricane Lara and that area is so flat. It is so full of petrochemical facilities to their these refineries, a lot of new natural gas infrastructure, their chemical plants that manufacture all sorts of things like plastics and solvents actually even the raw materials for p. p. e., a lot of them are manufactured. Rubber gloves and surgical masks. So so what happened when the hurricane of hit all of that a lot of them shut down and when petrochemical facilities shutdown they usually release a lot of pollution right stuff that can't safely sit in pipes. So it has to be released or burn and preliminary estimates just in Texas showed that more than four million extra pounds of pollution were released. That was actually before the storm even made landfall. But the reason I wanted to talk to you is because one chemical plant caught fire because of the storm that is a look at I ten, which has now been shut down as these plumes of smoke emerged about an hour ago. The governor now is confirming this as a chemical fire has made an emergency crews responded to the inferno at via lab in Lake Charles which manufacturers pull supplies. Okay. So we've we've talked about this on the show before it didn't chemical plant in Texas catch fire after another hurricane Hurricane Harvey. Ago Yes and we talked about it on this very podcast because that fire in Texas started this totally new kind of legal battle, a climate change criminal lawsuit, and I have to say so far there is no indication that this most recent fire will lead to similar litigation but with this really active hurricane season that we're having in the super hot water in the Gulf of Mexico hoping spawn these strong. Storms head right for America's petrochemical centers I thought it might be a good moment to revisit that story and the questions that raises. So this episode, we're going to hear that story. It's a story that asks this question can companies and the people who work for them be held responsible, even sent to prison for failing to adequately prepare for climate change, you're listening to shortwave the daily science podcast from NPR. Okay Becky, take us back to the beginning of this story. So it's a story that happened in twenty seventeen at a chemical plant near Houston Texas, and it's when this major hurricane struck. We are coming on the air for breaking news. This is Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Harvey barreling into the Texas coastline as a category four storm with one hundred and thirty mile an hour winds. It's yeah, I remember. Hervey was kind of unique because it made landfall and then it just kind of stopped and sat on top of Texas, just dumping and Dumping Rain. Some places got as much as sixty inches of rain. There was a lot of flooding obviously, our primary layer of protection was our power supply. When the storm hit we lost our primary power. You're hearing a guy who is a division president at one of those petrochemical companies that was overwhelmed by the flooding. His name is Richard. Rendered the company he helped run it's called Arkham. We brought in emergency generators to provide backup power. So what he's describing his in the aftermath of the storm, those generators were compromised. There's this intense effort to keep the power on at the Arkansas plant outside Houston. The plant is near a major highway. It's in a relatively residential area. So why were they fighting so hard to keep the power on basically because the plant was full of chemicals that have to be refrigerated Otherwise they catch fire. We do have that breaking news that we've been bringing you throughout the five o'clock hour this brand new explosion and a fire burning. As we speak the Arkham plant in Crosby, you can see that plume of black smoke billowing into the air. In fact, you can see it for miles and miles away. So they make organic peroxides which are. Volatile Chemicals, they're used to manufacture plastics and other stuff and organic rock sides are pretty hazardous because they can catch fire if they get warm right and they don't even need a spark, right. So organic peroxides contain both fuel and oxygen and when they become unstable, they heat up on their own and catch fire. Yeah. I can really hear that PhD coming through. So the Arima plant, it had a lot of refrigerated warehouses and buildings to keep these chemicals cold, and they also have a bunch of refrigerated trailers outside those warehouses. Okay. So talk me through it. What happened that resulted in the accident so harvey was stalled over the Houston area, just dumping rain for days and the refrigerated warehouses, the buildings they were flooding as the warehouses flooded. The employees were using forklifts to move containers of these chemicals from one refrigerated warehouse to another to try to keep them dry and cool, and the water just kept getting higher and higher and the electrical generators for the buildings started. Flood that's not good and then the forklift flooded. Okay. So would you do when you're forklift floods? So according to the US chemical, Safety Board investigation employees at the plant started carrying individual jugs of these highly flammable liquids in the dark my chest high water while it was still raining to get it to the refrigerated trailers we talked about because only the trailer still had power. Yeah. I read this report and it was terrifying like I can't imagine being one of those people still there as they're in like deep water trying to move these chemicals at one point, one of the trailer started to turn over. On their side. It was really like super scary. Yeah and you might be able to guess what happens next the trailers flooded they weren't refrigerated anymore the chemicals got warmer and warmer until they caught fire. So did people get hurt when the fire started in the plant? Well, the plant had been evacuated. So the employees were okay that we know of but there were some first responders who say they were injured while they were patrolling the area that had been evacuated specifically that there is and respiratory tracts were urinated by air contamination and there were some people who live nearby who also say they were injured. By the smoke and the ash from the fires. So we knew the chemicals themselves can be toxic was the smoke from them toxic as well. That's a good question. So when the chemicals burned, they actually just turned into carbon dioxide and water, but I talked to multiple organic chemists and they explained that the problem is actually the containers that were being burned a chemist at Bryn Mawr. College Name Michelle Francis explained it this way everything from the labels on things to whatever plastic or metal that the containers are made out of all that stuff is GonNa absorb other chemicals that didn't burn entirely. So the ashes nasty. The ashes nasty so that ash is made up of container junk and chemicals that didn't totally burn. That's the stuff that potentially could have harmed the first responders and the people close by and it's not something you ideally want in the air or water right so much. So that in two thousand, eighteen, the district attorney's Office for Harris County Texas announced criminal charges against the plant manager who was actually one of the people carrying those chemicals through the water. And Armas North American CEO, and later they also filed charges against a third person and executive at the company which was really surprising to a lot of people because in general, the criminal courts aren't used to punish companies in their employees for polluting the air and water especially when it happens during big storms and I went down to Houston interviewed the district attorney about it. Her name is Kim Og-. The. Charges are environmental. They are reckless emission of an air contaminant and endangerment of persons. Reckless emissions of an air contaminant feels like a bunch of words that be polluting lawyers like. Big Words. So why did she say she was filing these charges you mentioned that there were a lot of petrochemical plants around Houston that flooded and leak stuff during Hurricane Harvey is there something about these fires that was worse? Yeah I asked her that and one argument she made is that the fires happened because people at Arkham ignored the risk of flooding like they should have known that their plant could flood like that and prepared better. For example, the plant is in a flood plain and even though Harvey dumped more rain than any US storm on record the argument the county is making. Is that there were signs that flood risk was increasing before harvey because of Climate Change we've had new normal in Houston. We've had three five hundred year floods in just a short period of time, and it's true that flooding is getting more frequent and severe in. Houston as it is in many parts of the country and something climate models have been predicting for a long time that extreme rain will get more likely as earth hotter including rain from hurricanes. So in this case, the county is basically arguing that the company had a responsibility to recognize that flood risk was increasing and do. More to keep their chemicals from catching fire. So obviously, the company doesn't agree or they wouldn't be in the middle of a trial right now what is the company say? So after the indictments for announced, I interviewed two of the layers representing Komo and its employees. One of them is pretty well known in Houston been working for a really long time. His name is Rusty Harden Arkham did everything they were supposed to do here hardened says the company followed all the regulations it's required to follow. He seemed pretty galled that employees were facing criminal charges trying to find scapegoats and calling individuals felons. Are you kidding me this is outrageous. It's morally legally ethically wrong and the point he made is that if the current regulations for chemical companies in flood prone areas aren't enough. Then the regulations should be changed by legislatures not by courts and especially he argues by criminal courts sometimes bad things happen that there's no crime. There's no responsibility is not anyone's fault we need to look forward to. The future and make sure that we are prepared for these kinds of things if this is going to be the new norm in many think it is. Okay. So becky, like what is at stake in this trial if the county wins and the company loses will that change how we think about climate change in the law it could actually yeah, I talked to this Guy David Omen he's. A law professor at the University of Michigan, and one thing he said that I think is really interesting is that environmental laws and regulations are generally based on this underlying assumption that the future will look like the past today. Already, we expect companies to be prepared to handle what I might call ordinary rainfall. What climate change is going to do among other things is change our definition of what is ordinary rainfall. Another way to understand it in a legal context is that you can be held accountable and punished. If you don't prepare for something, you should have seen coming. It's the idea of foreseeability so. Like if you know that climate change is happening, does that mean it's foreseeable and you should prepare for it yet that's the big question exactly and how foreseeable extreme weather is hinges in part on how businesses inform themselves about the climate science that's available to them, right? Yeah. Like I talked to an environmental lawyer at the Conservation Law Foundation Alina Mehalle that foreseeability isn't just a question of did you personally know that this could happen but it's really what kind of maps were available to you. What kind of experts did you hire to inform yourself about this decision? What kind of modeling
"arima" Discussed on KOMO
"Faced a primary election back in March. Lacey has since apologized for her husband's alleged actions. You're listening to ABC News. Stay connected. Stay informed. The top five and five from coma News. Good evening. It's 502 I'm ELISA Jaffe. I'm Jeff Pooja. Look. Today is Election day in Washington State. This is the primary and in each race, the top two vote getters will move on to the general election. Ballots were mailed out several weeks ago and must be either postmarked today or dropped in a ballot Dropbox by eight PM in order to be counted. The first round of results is expected at around 8 15 I'm Ryan Harris reporting live on the three dozen people running for governor, including Democratic change Insley, who cites not only his economic leadership, but leadership in the Corona virus crisis. Among the reasons you should reelect him for 1/3 term. I've also spoken with Republicans Lauren Cope, Raul Garcia and Tim I'm an who all say they would at some level unravel in flea shutdowns and mandate. Because they say they're hurting businesses and taking away people's freedoms. We don't expect to hear from governor Inslee until after the voting is over five black lives matter. Protestors have filed a federal lawsuit claiming their civil rights were violated. The plaintiff say they were the victims of indiscriminate police violence, and we're forced to defend themselves by buying gas masks, helmets and other protective clothing. According to the Seattle Times. Their suit says this limited their right to peacefully protest. A hearing on their motion is set for August 25th. I'm Siro MARROW. Seattle police chief Carmen Best says She can't lay off up to 100 officers overnight as the City Council is proposing as part of its plan to cut the police budget by half without any clarity on how they will become reality. What is the plan Mayor Jenny Durkan, instead proposing $76 million in cuts and reductions backed by Chief best, Ah, 44 year old Marysville man was hit and killed while walking along Road in Arlington This morning, the Snohomish County Sheriff's Office says he was walking along 236 straight North East near 19th Avenue northeast around 3 a.m. That's not far from the angel of the winds. Casino witnesses say he was hit by what appeared to be an SUV still ahead, Life and death of a humble public servant. I'm Corwin Hate Memorial for a fallen bottle officer. Come on news time, 504 Here's Marina Rock Inger with our co Moh traffic. Oh, hi, ELISA. So we have a stable at 5 to 9, which is the Snohomish River Bridge closed right now. Both directions for boat traffic. We still have a big problem on state Route 96 It's at Lowell Arima Road at Seattle Hill Road in Mill Creek. It's kind of Ah ah, east of Mill Creek, if you will, but if you know that area, it's getting very backed up because of that collision that's blocking all directions. We have eastbound 5 12 a disabled vehicle. That's right near I five. It's in the right lane. I think that's a Semite doesn't seem to be causing a huge issues. South five a slow from Highway 18 to 54th in five. You're next. Come on Traffic by 14. Meteorologist Shannon O'Donnell. With the forecast will our wonderful August summer weather continues. We've been seeing some really nice conditions so far this month.
"arima" Discussed on Behind the Bets
"I think all three of us were. I do recall that. I was one of those Arctic blast things it was. So it photographs a magnet. You lost a bit on Jeff Fisher. Yeah. Imagine kickings for losers, right? Mr murray. Naree got Mr. Murray is a right again. Yeah. Kicking is for losers areas? All right. My man, look it was great catching up. I know. We've talked a lot during the football season's good to do it on the pod and excellent stuff with this hockey bedding, and we'll continue to monitor it. I can't imagine. We jinxed it, but I just hope we didn't. Yeah. No kidding. Well, thanks, Paul. I appreciate me on you gotta but and good luck. Waking up you're doing the Lord's doing the Lord's work out there getting better early delivering the gambling info kind of my take care talk. Nerdy to me. Fantasy insider and regular here on the behind. The beds podcast might clay. Joining us, Mike O Arima, man. I'm doing well. I worry though doing well. Alright. Speed speed time two minute drill. Hurry up offense. We got some prop beds conference championship games. Let it rent. All right. Let's do it. Let's start out with this. Saints Rams game. I liked one in this. Drew Brees two touchdown passes is the line under is plus one ten under minus one thirty of believe it or not Doug. I'm going with the under here. You look at breezes past five games is passing touchdown totals to one zero one and one they've just been leaning heavily on the running game, especially near the goal line. He's actually been at or under few passing touchdowns in nine of seventeen games. This season was really hot early on. But since then has cooled off in that department, by the way, the saints offense overall not really scoring touchdowns. Like they were earlier on four point four touchdowns per game weeks one to twelve but only two point two per game in their past six games at a cut right in half. So again, you look at the play calling one of the run heaviest in the league and one of the run heaviest near the goal line. And teams, by the way, you look at you look at facing. The Rams sixty percent of touchdowns against and this season passes that's twenty four th they also don't allow many plays, and you know, the product of the ransom a lot of zero or one passing touchdown six of their past seven games. So a tough team to throw touchdowns against in the same offense has not been as good over the past month and a half. So I'm gonna lean towards the end at the plus one tenure, right? Two hundred two passing touchdown for drew Brees. Look we saw it on the first play against your eagles a week ago under through receiver. Intercepted doesn't quite look as healthy has in the past just turned forty this week. So maybe age is a factor. Let's go to the AFC championship game, and you have to place here. I do we'll start with the patriots running game here. I'm going under on Sony. Michelle seventy five point five rushing arts at minus one ten I know this is probably tough to get behind after his performance last week, but expect a bit of a different game script here. I don't think they're gonna score on. You know, what was the fourth straight drives open the game and big lead as they go into Kansas City and that will kind of aligned with what they've done the season. I mean, they're the patriots averaging thirty three called runs game in their wins. But only twenty two per game in their five losses. That's that's obvious. Obviously a game scripting there. But it it the the split is similar home in the road. Right. So they're nine annot at home this season averaging thirty five runs a game averaging twenty five per game on the road where they're three and five you look at Michelle's rushing yardage totals and losses this season. Thirty four fifty thirty one fifty seven fifty nine. None of them are close to the seventy five point five line for this game and his yard show on the road, by the.