26 Burst results for "Amy Webb"
"amy webb" Discussed on This Week In Google
"amy webb" Discussed on Design Matters with Debbie Millman
"amy webb" Discussed on Design Matters with Debbie Millman
"This is ridiculous. I called my sister who was my sort of constant confidant, and she's the costar of the book. And I interrupted yet another fabulous meal. She was having with all of her fabulous Friends. I said that said I'm done. I'm done. And she said, you remember Mary Poppins. It was a movie that we had watched on VHS tape so many times as a kid that we warped the tape. And she started singing it. And she's an opera singer. And my sister said, you need a list. You need to make a Mary Poppins list. And maybe just like in the movie, Mary Poppins appears the next day, maybe mister perfect will appear the next day. And at that point, I'd had some way to add some wine in me. I'd had a few cigarettes and I thought that's brilliant. That's exactly the right. That's perfect. That's what I should do. And I sat down and I started writing and writing and writing and pretty soon I had three pages of extremely granular, extremely detailed requirements for anybody that I would go out with. Very specific details. Extremely. He could not like the musical cats. I take umbrage with this, but that's another interview on another day. This is all there's some context. The previous relationship that I was in the guy, the guy listened to cats on full blast, nonstop. And also I had to accompany a bunch of people in high school for like music contests and they all wanted the same memories. And all of this is described hysterically in the book for those that are listening. Haven't yet read it. Yeah, I had like you could like musicals, but only certain musicals. And if you liked cats at all, then that was a deal breaker for me. Now, you also wanted your perfect partner to weigh 20 pounds more than you at any given time. So my question is, if you gain or lose weight, they have to gain or lose weight with you. That was sort of the plan. But okay, so for people who don't know me or haven't read the book, they're like, who is this crazy lady? And why did she make such a ridiculous list? So Mary bob and Liz, these things were specific and granular, but they actually are emblematic of bigger issues, right? I don't want somebody who's either such a fitness not that they're looking their nose down at me or they're slovenly and have terrible habits and they're going to not help me along in my journey. So the context behind this giant list of things was when you sign on to a dating site, they ask you questions like, are you a cat person or are you dog person? I'm not looking for a pen pal, right? I'm looking for a husband. That question is superficial. So instead, how can we get to a point where the data is not superficial, the data is extremely specific and meaningful. And that's really what the list was about. But of the 72 attributes, the list only included about 12 qualities that I could see were really about a person's essence. Most were a lot were behavioral, physical. And I was thinking as your grandmother might and wondering where love and chemistry and spontaneity might fit into this. I am not a spontaneous person. So I guess for me and my grandmother, that would not have been that big of an issue. So here's the deal. I had been proposed to twice before this fateful night of the list making happened. And in both cases, I had met these men in interesting and unique situations and they were great stories. Hollywood stories. How good stories I met this guy in an airport. We'd both missed our flight. We were in Tokyo. We had missed our connecting flight. We were both trying to get back to Chicago. I thought the guy was Japanese. I started talking to him in Japanese and very polite Japanese. It turns out he was American. I felt like an idiot. But that started us talking, we chatted a little bit more. It turns out he wound up quoting a story that I had written news week back to me. And then I quoted Nora Ephron and said, you just quoted me back to me. And then I was embarrassed but it turns out he loved that movie. It was just like this amazing beginning and by the time that we got to Chicago, it was so late that the only people left in the airport were my parents and his parents who had already been chatting and we grew up two hours away from each other. It was like this whole thing that seemed to be very meant to be. And it was passionate and it was exciting and two months later I realized that we had nothing in common. But other people, we sort of trudged along for a year and a half trying to make it work. I didn't want to be in a situation where I was going to trudge along and make it work because I thought that I could someday rekindle those initial sparks. Those initial sparks go away, and the whole name of the game here is how can you meet a person? How can you find that thing that thing that's going to complete you? That will continue to complete you as the years go on. And so for me, the passion, the spontaneity, all of that other stuff, it was either going to be there or it wasn't going to be there. But none of that mattered if I didn't have these incredibly important core things resolved. So you make your list, but then you take a radical, unprecedented data driven next step. You set up ten fake dating profiles, posing as ten men that fulfill these attributes that you're asking for on your Mary Poppins list. And you ultimately interact with 96 women in order to understand how to best position yourself online. What was that like? Tell us about that. Well, I had built this scoring system. So I wasn't actually looking for all 72 things. I was essentially looking for a combination of those things that added up to a certain number of points. And what had happened was in my drunken state, I realized I'd sort of found this perfect guy and I did all the math and crunch the numbers and he would qualify for me to go out with him. And he seemed like the neurotic Jewish doctor of every mother's dreams of my mother's dreams. And when I thought, if I think he's this great, there are probably other women who think he's great, too. So I decided to sign on as a man to just sort of look around and see what was there. Profile after profile after profile, there were happy women that sounded happy that looked happy that used the word happy many times. They were showing skin. They were all beautiful. And I just thought to myself, you know, in person, these women are probably not as interesting as me. They're probably not as smart as me, but it doesn't matter. Because I'm never going to get to that in person date with all of these women on this site. And at that moment I decided I should collect evidence I should do market research. I should do what I would do with a client and treat myself as a client. So I did I spent a month with these profile archetypes I had ten and each one of the profiles had a combination of points that would have qualified him for me to have a long-term relationship. And ultimately, all I wanted to know was who were the women that are attracted to the same men that I am?.
"amy webb" Discussed on Design Matters with Debbie Millman
"There just was no way to glean that from looking online. So yeah, he called in the middle of the night in a cold sweat because he had no idea how to have a conversation about Twitter. I'm assuming he didn't call a landline. I'm assuming he called your I think I probably was on a BlackBerry back then to be honest. I had it on next year. I do, I sleep with my phone next to me. It is always with me. And it's important to me that our clients, not just our clients, everybody. It's important to me that everybody feels empowered. To use technology because like it or not, technology is a permanent part of our lives. So we really do answer the phone regardless and some of our clients have my mobile phone number, if not, we actually hired a calling center. And they regardless of where I am in the world or my staff, they can actually patch calls to us. They have a special sort of setup. But again, we just do things differently and we don't take projects on because we think that's going to make us a lot of money. We take projects on because we really, really care about the project or really care about the organization. And we want to do everything humanly possible to make whatever they're doing awesome. I understand that you've been criticized by male counterparts for having this sort of emotional attachment to your work. Is it true? If so, how do you deal with it? Yeah, actually. I have been. And that's fine. I don't actually think it's a gender thing. I think it's a level of passion that I have. I don't know how to function dispassionately. It's not something I can do. And not everybody takes the same approach to their jobs or their projects or their extracurricular activities, whatever it is. So for those people who are critical or condescending because of the attachment that we have to the work that we do, I think they're jealous. You have a rather disciplined time management system to manage all of your various interests. And you measure your time similarly to the way Nick hornby managed his manage his character's time in his novel about a boy. The management system in that book were 30 minute units. However, you reduce the 30 minutes to 20. So you can get more into a day and you call them units. And you still I read this in your book. I was curious if you still now that you have a child and a career and a successful book tour and so forth if you still manage it the same way. I do. And in fact, I built a special spreadsheet that's color coded by subjects like some of its family, some of its extended family, some of its work, some of its book, whatever. And those items get put into the spreadsheet at the end of every workday before I leave my office so that I have something like ready to go right when I start working usually at 6 o'clock in the morning. That's what I get to my office. So I'm very proud of myself and I think this is awesome. And then Maria popova, who's a friend and she's a genius and she's got this amazing blog. Posted Ben Franklin's original productivity chart. Turns out he figured all this out 400 years ago. So he actually spreadsheet. Yeah, well, he kind of he actually made a hand drawn spreadsheet and he actually did the same thing. He divided his entire day into units. And with him, it was always about efficiency. How can I burn fewer candles? But he actually did the exact same thing, which, you know, it's like, damn it, that's another thing that Ben Franklin did. First got to get to it first. Yeah. So I'm imagining that given these time constrictions and your enormous passion for your work and your family. And all of the other projects that you have, imagining that you didn't have that much time to date or to find eligible people to go out within the more old fashioned old school conventional ways. I didn't. And I was antsy. And I was ready to just get past the having to date a bunch of people process and first date thing and get on to the point where we're just in a relationship. So you turn to online dating. I did. I did. Everybody around me, my family members had said that true love would find me when I'm least expecting it. And all that serendipity. I just had to sit around at least expect. And I don't think that works for you. Very well. You just didn't seem like an effective strategy. It just didn't, I would never. If I thought about it, there's no other circumstance in life when I would just wait around for like it just didn't make any sense. But I listened to everybody, originally before I signed on waiting to run into somebody. I was doing a lot of math to figure out what my chances were. I was living in Philadelphia at the time. And I sort of was looking at the population and was looking for somebody Jewish and looking for somebody who hated sports and I essentially figured out that there were 35 eligible men in the city in the entire city of Philadelphia. Literally serendipity. How do you even find the 35, though? City Philadelphia has a population of 1.5 million. Figure about half of those are men. So it's 750,000, I was looking for somebody between the ages of 30 and 36, and that was 4% of the population took it down to like 6 50. And then somebody who was Jewish, the popular Jewish population in that age group was only 2.6% at the time. So anyway, if you go down and down and down, it's like 35. Okay. And then you have to locate them. Well, no, because in my grandmother, my family's grand plan for me. I wasn't supposed to locate anybody I was supposed to sit around and wait for them to look at me. Was just seemed or hope that somebody was going to match me up with one of those 35 men, which just seemed ridiculous. Anyhow, so I tried online dating because it seemed to me like that was a smarter strategy. Originally, I was excited about online dating because of the promise of algorithms. Algorithm is a scary word for a lot of people. Yes, it is. But algorithm really just means putting data into some type of workflow or process and getting the answer at the end. So you can think of it as sort of a elaborate formula. And I liked the idea of an algorithm. I like the idea of me putting data into a system and having a computer algorithm match my data against other people's data. And spitting out those matches. It was basically doing the same thing I had already done, but in a much faster way and in a way that I couldn't do on my own. So I loved that idea and signing on and online dating seemed like a great idea for me. So you set up accounts with J date match dot com and eHarmony. And then ultimately wrote a book about how you essentially re-engineered.
"amy webb" Discussed on Design Matters with Debbie Millman
"Amy Webb, wrote a book about why that profile was so wrong and more important, what she did to fix it and to find love. It's called data, a love story, and she's here to talk about it right now. Amy Webb, welcome to design matters. Thank you so much. So what is it with your obsession with George Michael? George Michael is in the book a lot. His music is described in the book. And rather than doing a traditional bibliography, I wrote a whole separate chapter at the end of the book, where I go into deep detail about numerous things, including applying music theory to explain why George Michael's music is exceptional. I started piano lessons when I was four. And had a very, very intense musical education all the way through elementary school, high school, and then when I started music school in college and it was the 80s and I appreciated the music. I really did. And I guess ever since then, I've spent my life trying to convince people of the same thing. But you know, he's my go to. Well, I respect your position on freedom. But I really think father figure is his best song. I think the bridge in father figure is one of the greatest bridges in a pop song of all time. I agree, father figure is great, but I mean, if we really want to get into it, let's go, sister. You know, freedom has the added benefit of the music video. And it's difficult to separate the music from the video that tells the real story behind that song. And the story is, he was in an argument with his label and attempting to break free and do music on his own terms, which is what that album listen without prejudice was. And the video, this is back when video is still really mattered. Oh, and it was a great, it is one of the great videos. It is, and he never appears in it. He refused to appear in the video and instead had the supermodels and there were just a few back then. Linda and Christie and Naomi and Cindy. And there were these massive explosions that sort of let up climactically to the worlds or jukebox exploding and the iconic leather jacket strung with pearls from the 50s. And the faith video never thought I would be talking about this. You know, those things exploded and it really did tell sort of a deep story about what he was going through. And for me, that's always been inextricably tied to feelings that I have about breaking free trying to start something new, trying to do something different and for me that the song is incredibly passionate and energizing, but I constantly have this real going through my mind of what was in that video and it's inspiring every time. I contend that if he had a better female lead in the father figure video, it would have gotten more traction. The model who was in that video appeared in a few of his videos and I agree with you. Yeah. In any case, you studied classical music yourself. You study classical clarinet and later graduated with a BA in political science from Indiana University. And in reading your book, which we'll get to shortly, I couldn't help but wonder if you're expertise in music. And the abstract thinking that goes along with playing music had somehow influenced your really incredible ability to analyze data. I think so. There are different ways that music is taught. I was taught to read music first. I was also learning how to read. Letters at the same time. So it was incredibly frustrating. But on the other hand, I see the world in formulas. I can't look at things in any other way. But that background and having to learn, not just how to read music, but how and why music works. And court progressions and arpeggios and time signatures, all of those different things. I think, yeah, probably significantly impacted and influenced how I think. You also have an MS from the Columbia University graduate school of journalism. Is it true that when you graduated high school, you didn't have a one page resume you had a 100 page book? That is true. And that is because my parents had a different approach towards parenting. They actually weren't the type of parents who demanded that we got a's and everything. They demanded that we had incredible experiences. And so my mother, who was a teacher, did everything she possibly could to make sure that my sister and I had incredibly rich experiences by the time that we were graduating from high school. And yeah, we try to binder. And everything that we did was documented and recorded. And again, it was fine if we failed as long as we had some kind of experience that led us to the next step. So after graduating Colombia, you became a writer and a reporter with newsweek in Tokyo. And The Wall Street Journal in Hong Kong, where you covered emerging technology. But ultimately, you decided that you'd be happier and more useful outside of a newsroom setting. Why is that? I wasn't a very good staff member. Problems with authority maybe. You know, no, it wasn't a problem with authority. It was a problem with the status quo. I think in a very logical but non linear way and for some people that's a difficult process to be around. I was doing some reporting and for some reason, people were leaving their babies and their cars that summer for some reason. And so there were lots of dead babies. And I kept having to do stories about them. And I thought, you know, wouldn't it be great if I could have the MP3 recording of the calls that the parents were making, because it just told that story in a much more emotional sort of deep way. And I had the technology to do that and then knowledge. And at the time, I was still having arguments with people about why digital was a great place for content. And part of that was my immaturity and not knowing how to express my desire to do something and to convince other people that these new modes of communication were legitimate. Part of it is that they just weren't ready. And it wasn't I wasn't a good fit. I'm much better suited to being outside of an organization and advising them in a way that's not totally disruptive to their daily workflow. Although I usually suggest things that are totally disruptive to their daily workflow, but they're in charge of implementing. So you're now the CEO of web media group, which is a digital strategy agency that solves complex problems, both strategically and operationally related to, as you say, disruptive technologies and emerging digital trends that are according to your website, catalyzing great change across many industries. And you describe what media group as a very unorthodox consulting firm. And in fact, you hate to even use the word consulting. Because you believe it evokes a kind of work that you shy away from. So why is that? Can you give us some details about the type of work that you do in the type of client that you work with? Well, we advise our client portfolio is about 50% media right now in 50% other. And we're a very small boutique company. And we have the luxury of getting to work with the people that we want to work with, so we don't have to work with everybody who calls. And our criteria is the organization not just desiring change, but ready to embrace it. And how much of a partner will this group of people be with us? I understand that you are available to your clients, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. And I read that you even had a client wake you up in the middle of the night because he was consumed with worry about a vendor meeting the next day. And rather than stating an expletive and going back to bed, you got up. You made a cup of coffee. You went down to your home office and talked through the strategy with him for more than two hours. So is this a regular occurrence? It is. It is. It is. And that was Marcus, who I loved dearly, and this was at the beginning. This was early days of Twitter. And he was at a point in his career. He was a very, very high ranking executive. And in a situation where it was no longer going to be acceptable for him to ask somebody what is this Twitter thing? And at the time, there just was no way to glean that from looking online. So yeah, he called in the middle of the night in a cold sweat because he had no idea how to have a conversation about Twitter. I'm assuming he didn't call a landline..
"amy webb" Discussed on Design Matters with Debbie Millman
Has the Pandemic Resulted in the Death of Privacy?
"Last year. Around this time we talked with. Amy webb futurist and founder of the future today institute about how businesses might respond to the pandemic and how things might change in the future as a result of such a big direction. Changing event one thing. She was really clear on. Is that most likely. The pandemic would accelerate the death of privacy. And now amy webb says. Yep that definitely happened starting in school one of the interesting thing. That's things that has happened over the past twelve months that we've really relaxed some of our feelings about privacy and security for a lot of people who were able to send their kids back to school. Those schools required downloading an application and filling out. Pretty private details about your children that ranged from where you've traveled to whether or not somebody had symptoms all of. That's attached to that child's name and it gets uploaded and there was no choice if you want your kid to go to school. Got to download this app to your phone. Which by the way. There's a lot of other personally identifiable information. That's that's attached to it and it's not like these apps for sending purely anonymous data back and forth. We're going to have to reconcile that at some point. And i here's like another interesting set of connections that i can make about the past twelve months multiple times. We've been in situations whether it was the emergence of the corona virus or the insurrection on the capital or the craziness and volatility in the market as a result of game stop trading in previous years our government institutions and our regulators would have stepped in and they would have stepped in to to mitigate what was happening and instead we saw companies stepping in either to provide services that the government couldn't or to regulate in some way one of the things that we saw happen as a result of the virus was something that i call a c. it's like a diaz except companies so rather than it being a distributed. Denial of service gobert denial of service And it happened again again. And i think we are now on a path where we have to ask given what we've just seen over the past twelve months. What role in the future to our institutions. Play and what influence do companies actually have on society. That you know. Maybe they've had for a while but we haven't been willing to confront and does that mean for all of us going forward so fair to say examples of a see dos would be for example twitter banning president trump robin hood shutting down trading when things got really relatively game stop. Aws and yeah. I mean we can. We can rattle off at this point a pretty long list and again our governmental institutions in this country. Were not set up to move fast and break things. There's one way to look at this last year at this time and we talked the virus felt like it was emerging. The problem is that we. We'd like a four month lead time and there just wasn't any action taken so in a way Everybody kind of dragged their heels and failed to make decisions and contingency plans at every level and in every type of business in every school. There's nobody seemed to be prepared. Even though we were essentially watching a slow-motion explosion happening and then in the aftermath of that we saw you know. I don't know there's no other way to to phrase this. I mean we saw a government leadership that just didn't have the chops we had people running the show. That just didn't have the experience. And i think that created this vacuum for google and apple to step in and try to build contact tracing systems and a year later everyday people stepping up to build corona virus vaccine information websites. Because it's been so challenging and there was there was no direction whatsoever and in the interim we've got companies making decisions about whether or not to allow people to do their business or to say what they wanna say. I think there's been a really profound shift that everyday people will start to recognize. That hasn't an apparent yet because we've been dealing with the crisis from day to day
"amy webb" Discussed on Advocate Like a Mother Podcast
"Today's guest is amy webb. Amy webb is an artist. Advocate and the author of the children's books. When charlie met emma and awesomely and blogger at this little mickey dot com. You can follow along with her journey at this little mickey on instagram. How are you guys doing this week. Good and great great and you might just all heard us. I mean this is the job episodes today. So nothing's changed. In an hour just came back from survi- i went from surviving to doing great a couple minutes. You know that's all it takes a mindset saying it's a roller coaster is an enemy. Guess say the same thing. Her household is is fun and amazing and busy. And wow what an interview. Michelle and i got to do this interview. How had how do you think it went. Oh i loved it. I adore me. So i've been following her like for years and so i'm a big fan. Yes yeah yeah. She's super fun. It was really great to talk to someone who has just a great sense of humor. If you follow her on instagram you know super fun and quirky and dances. A bunch and facilitates incredible storytelling. That's you know that's something we got into on the show we actually get into. We do talk a little bit about. Ufo's and go stories so that does happen on the show now. I'm just jealous. Because i didn't get a get in on that interview so tell us a little bit about her story Kind of how. She got into Where she specializes in advocacy like now she she does some work signing up to speak with in classrooms and that's all happening and then We do get into some pretty interesting stuff that she's written on her blog kind of over the past six months. I guess she hasn't been quite as active lately on her blog. But even Kinda in the fall. Last year she'd written some really good stuff. And i pull out a couple articles that she'd written almost four years ago. And so we did we kind of look at some of and then talk a little bit about what's changed. Is there any perspective differences from that and there's just tons of tons of great stuff on this interview. We're all so excited to have you guys again. We're kicking this off. Oh you know what. Go on apple podcasts. And leave a review for this show. It just started. This is the second episode. But it is the best podcasts that you have ever listened and yes and the internet needs to know that apple podcast needs to know that but it really does matter if you go there and leave a review. It kind of helps to get the show in front of more people and we love that we want to. We wanted to go big. And we wanna go where you guys want to go this year. so Onward you guys ready to hear this interview all right. Let's get to it. Here's a.
Will Cancel Culture Come for Us All?
"You heard representative. Jim jordan of ohio. Say this week as the house debated whether to impeach the president many of these republicans are calling it cancel culture. This has been a controversial topic. But we're going to dive in quality assurance where we take a second look at a big tech story in the news. Last march futurist. Amy webb predicted that cancel culture and the backlash to it would become an even bigger deal in the year ahead said now that's proving true in more ways than she even expected in the aftermath of the attack on the capital. Eric trump Very publicly proclaimed that his family. You know we're being cancelled and it's interesting to see the push pull the tension between those seeking to cancel others. Those complaining that they themselves have been canceled. You know this is one of these situations where the technology enabling all of this is both megaphone and also the infrastructure and also the stop button so the question really is. Who's the ultimate arbiter. What are the rules. They're becoming less and less clear. How do we tease apart. The arguments about cancel culture that are kind of specious and the real behavior. That is behind it right. So here's the predicament. There's a sort of glomming on when you feel like you agree with somebody. The instruments of technology of made that really easy i mean. Let's think back a few months ago when everybody was posting a black square on their instagram accounts. Away of signaling. Their discontent corporations were doing that too. That has translated to real world. Cancellations i mean we have started to see corporate denials of service ranging from aws kicking parlor off to facebook and twitter and more recently youtube silencing. Donald trump's accounts and that for some has social consequences but for other that has real world business consequences. And we're in the situation where we are both inventing the rules and playing the game at the same time. is there confusion. Do you think because there are many people who say particularly. Let's say like on black twitter that there was never a mechanism to address problems. Before and that you know what came to be seen as cancel. Culture was really almost like collective bargaining happening on twitter. It was a whole bunch of people who could like you said express the same opinion and get a result when they never could have before well. The lifeblood of cancel culture is dopamine right. It's the hit that we get from. Feeling like we're a part of a movement and you can see that visualized in metrics. There are some easy fixes to this. We're not gonna fix our culture overnight. The actual problems that we are having we can totally address the mechanisms that are helping to fan the flames twitter could take away metrics so the general public no longer sees the number of times something has been re tweeted or liked maybe you as the original poster could see that but others cannot. That's one way to reduce that dopamine head to reduce the sensation that we are feeling the sense of urgency. 'cause urgency is also part of cancel culture and the same could happen on facebook. There are addressable problems here. you know. There's an argument to be made. That cancelling cancel culture gives rise to additional cancel culture right. it's it becomes as vicious cycle. I mean that's what we're seeing right now with eric trump and the remarks that he's making about cancel culture and and specifically with regard to his dad. You know. i think that's where some of the resentment comes in. I do think that around the time of the metoo movement what has come to be called cancel. Culture right was an exercise in power by people who traditionally have not had power and that that was part of the democratizing effective social media that a lot of people could say the same thing all at once about a misbehaving man or white supremacy and get a result. And that's the tricky. That's the tricky side of us right. Because arguably the net effect of that movement did real good in society and so cancelling the mechanisms that would have led to. That may not be the best for our longer terms but the flip side is that we wind up in the situation that we're in now and if you stop for a moment and think about the words. The semantics cancel culture is alliterative. It's easy to remember. It's an active verb and it itself is conceptually easy for people to understand whereas dachshund or something else may not be right. 'cause cancel culture was a more positive reframing in some ways of targeted harassment which i think we have to be honest about. That has been the mechanism of the far-right online. And you know it's like cancel. Culture was the leftist rebrand That's you know. I hadn't thought about that before but you're absolutely right and i think that that is some of the that is currently being made by those on the far right which is that they themselves now are being targeted and harassed and listen. I'm a target of some of that. Hate and as much as it pains me to say this. They do have a point. Cancel culture impacts them through targeted attacks the same way that they are targeting others. The solution to all of this would be for somebody to come out to the playground. Blow the whistle and tell us all to settle down. We're going to get detention by that. I mean leadership which we have had very little of over the past few years.
"amy webb" Discussed on News Radio 920 AM
"Behavior look at history so futures covers so many subjects from tech trends industry electronics robots AI how it's all gonna affect us in the future everything you can think of a futurist has an idea as to what's going on well Amy Webb very well known future she spoke at the south by southwest Dan DA lot of nerds think she's cool I think she's cool lot of commentary about a lot of things happening in the world while she was on NPR and she had some interesting comments about covert nineteen which again I thought was kind of interesting especially in in in in the idea that the fact that we had B. you know they didn't announce what again from the Pentagon but would you oppose a real right so Webb was speaking Amy Webb was speaking about the issue of cover nineteen and how it is triggered someone's idea of a future dystopia today should be clear that we are living in a dystopia so the interview then made a complete flip flop the the guy that was interviewing said something about alien invasion and he compared what was happening to an alien base will cover nineteen of the alien back evasion were contending with what age webcam curved because she said when futures by about scenario sometimes when you get to where there is no winning solution to a problem you can hope for an alien invasion Amy then said in a way this is our alien invasion futurists when we map out scenarios sometimes and I think this happens in game three to like sometimes if you get to a point where there's no winning solution are you kind of hope for an alien in alien invasion if you think about the treaty immediate pre coded world what were we facing we were facing a election that had.
"amy webb" Discussed on 600 WREC
"Your behavior the living history so futures covers so many subjects from tech trends industry electronics robots AI how it's all going to affect us in the future everything you can think of a futurist has an idea as to what's going on well any web very well known future she spoke at the south by southwest and lot of nerds think she's cool I think she's cool lot of commentary about a lot of things happening in the world while she was on NPR and she had some interesting comments about covered nineteen which again I thought was kind of interesting especially in in in in lieu of the idea that the the fact that we had the lead of the dead announcer again from the Pentagon budget with UFOs are real right so Webb was speaking Amy Webb was speaking about the issue of cover nineteen and how it is triggered someone's idea of a future dystopia today should be clear that we are living in a dystopia so the interview then made a complete flip flop the the guy that was interviewing said something about alien invasion and he compared what was happening to an alien base with over nineteen in the alien back invasion we were contending with wavy web concurred because she said when futures by about scenario sometimes when you get to where there's no winning solution to a problem you can hope for an alien invasion Amy then said in a way this is our alien invasion futurists when we map out scenarios sometimes and I think this happens in game three to like sometimes if you get to a point where there's no winning solution are you kind of hope for an alien in alien invasion if you think about deep creek the immediate pre coded world what were we facing we were facing a election that had security.
A futurist on navigating change forced by the pandemic: fight the fear
"In this particular moments in the midst of a world wide shut down due to the novel Corona Virus. It is a little bit hard to imagine the future. It's a natural instinct. We are scared trying to get by day by day. And that's okay but there are people out there whose job it is to imagine how this crisis will shape our future. This may be a pivot point for societies and businesses and technology. So in part two of our conversation with futurist Amy Webb founder of the future today institute I started by asking how technology development might suddenly change. Let's acknowledge the disruption and accept the fact that the future is going to be now on a path that was different than we previously envisioned. So we're GONNA see a ton of investment in artificial intelligence in the area of speeding scientific discovery and mining amounts of crowd based data. We're GONNA see huge shifts in investment in areas like genomics and synthetic biology if you could always supply chain robotics five G. WE'RE GONNA see inflections there as well. You're going to be okay on the other side of this. It's everybody digs their heels into the ground and says I want things to be the way that they were before. Yep Yep what does it take to get that type of thinking to win versus the fear response that I? I think I have an answer for that question and that is it takes an intervention that only each individual person can do on their own. We sort of we. We've all suffered at one time or another from some kind of anxiety or panic. I mean everybody's gone through that and the analogy that I like to use is a driving a car and a slippery road. Anybody who's ever driven in slippery conditions knows that if you start to slide if you slam on the brakes you're GonNa spin on a control. That's like the thing that you don't do even though in that situation. That's why you're like that's the number one thing your body wants you to do and think about why it's because we think that we can control the impact and every single thing that happens next if I slam on the brakes. My car will stop right but this is one of those times when you are no longer in control. None of us are of every single thing. That's happening there too many extra so if we try to slam on the brakes. We're not GONNA HELP THE PROBLEM. What we are taught to do in the situation like that is to steer into the slide as it's happening a feels weird but what it allows us to do to slow time down a little bit so that we can make incremental decisions right now weird all dealing with a soul crushing amount of uncertainty and what. Everybody wants us to know. Exactly what's going to happen next? I cannot tell you exactly what's going to happen next. I can tell you that if we continue to allow our LIMBIC systems to take hold of us and we are allowing fear to take hold and our LIMBIC systems. Keep firing the way that they are. That's basically the equivalent. It's GONNA lead us to slamming on the brakes. We'RE GONNA make bad decision. After bad decision. The better thing to do is to try to somehow slow ourselves down and to change the expectations and the way that we would do that as futurists is simply by using frameworks to to think through this differently. A futurist would lean into uncertainty. Even though it's scary and try to think through what the implications of this could be and to imagine the unimaginable and imagining the unimaginable is both a way of thinking through existential risk but also incredible opportunity. One example of that. You had this great thread where you basically demanded that the tech industry figure out how to make better masks pastor. That's right so a vaccine is a solution and we. Obviously she continue to put resources to that but as we are doing that. Couldn't we put the full might of human ingenuity to alleviating some of the situation that we're in right now it seems to me like while we are waiting for a vaccine? Couldn't we design systems to help us get through this? Like for God's sake we put people on the moon. I absolutely refused to believe that somebody out. There can't figure out some kind of mask that would allow us to resume some parts of our everyday life. If only we allowed ourselves to think boulder and bigger. What could we be doing to help solve this problem? What are we gonNA stop worrying so much out in the tech world specifically well? I don't have a good. I mean I have an answer but it's not one that you're going to like. I think privacy goes away and I completely understand the need to access our location data to try to get ahead of where the next community outbreak and spread is going to be that being said. We don't have a plan in place for what it means to give a significant amount of access to our personal data not just to tech companies to third parties to the federal government to others I think we are starring the end of privacy in the face Amy Webb futurist and founder of the future today
What tech do we have for living through a pandemic? And what tech do we wish we had?
"What do we have for living through a pandemic. And what do we wish we had from American public media? This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm molly would so far. Technology has been crucial element of responding to the corona virus pandemic from remote work in schooling to science and information sharing to using artificial intelligence to sift through possible treatments and even vaccines for cove in nineteen. So today tomorrow we're going to take a broader. Look at the tech. We have to deal with a pandemic and what innovation the pandemic itself might lead to to do that. We got our favorite futurist on the line. Amy Webb is founder of the Future Today Institute. She says in a lot of ways. We're lucky this is happening in twenty twenty and not say thirty years ago. We have remote conferencing tools better either cheap or free collaborative working tools. Online storage slack for group discussion. So you know. We've got those kinds of tools. We already have artificial intelligence that can be used to speed scientific discovery and we have advanced manufacturing systems so in a lot of ways the technology that powers our everyday lives in times when we don't have a pandemic in place. What about the technology? That isn't well deployed in America or is still nascent. You know could drones be delivering. Everyone food and medicine were it. Not for policy. Could autonomous cars be making grocery deliveries? I think some of the technology is probably available and ready for deployment but was sort of awaiting regulatory approval and a lot of our cities and municipalities don't have local restrictions in place or policies in place that will allow land-based drones. And we could find out pretty soon that we we need those delivery vehicles to help us out to one of the things that I think we could see. As a result of the corona virus is an acceleration of approvals. I'll give you one. Other quick example Amazon has had a cloud based robotics platform sort of in the works for a while and the radically this would help to enable warehouse robots you know the the kinds of robots that would work in warehouses and other places. Amazon announced. It's hiring one hundred thousand workers. I wonder if in the process they're also going to speed the deployment of some of that technology right and that could be both good and bad. What can be bad about it. Well the good parts are that we would need fewer humans to help stem the significant and potentially crushing demand of online purchasing. So it's good. However that also potentially puts us on a path to much much faster workforce automation which potentially means in accelerated track to the permanent loss of lots of jobs. Amy Webb futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute
"amy webb" Discussed on EconTalk
"They don't want to be told that it's not going to go. So well in the future. But what he could have said was can't literally. But you could imagine a world where he would say it's good enough. I like Facebook the way it is. It's a fabulous platform. I'm not going to run a bunch of ads like they did this summer. That's try to make us romanticize and Facebook Vilna stall about its early days as cute really nice adds to good music. I'm just gonna give it up. I'm going to turn it over to a foundation and let the people run it without concern for whether makes a lot of money. I'm going to turn it into what we could call utility. But not one that needs to make money to just serves people in that foundation. It will be staffed by volunteers who love it and care about it. But it won't be driven to make money. And this sounds like the most heretical thing I've ever said on contact because it sounds like against making money, and we all everyone who knows me knows not against making money, but in a world with a lot of competition that desire to make money is a nasty could be a nasty thing. And I don't see any signs. That that as I said earlier that that Facebook soccer played his social price. I'm sure some his friends are barest. But it's a weird thing that you can't get off that horse. You can't just it's already gone public. It's not yours anymore and. Seems to me we need to be thinking about ways. To take knowledge which is fundamentally underlies. These platforms is brilliant Corbis extrordinary ways that we interact with each other and make them less about making money. Little more about doing something else said the people who created them loose control of them. And then they're stuck. But my joke is I love Evernote evidence. Fantastic. If it ever disappears. I'm going to be really lost. If it's fine as it is. I don't need to get better need to get bigger. Keep it like it is it's fine. It's great now I understand it has to work with the new platforms. And so maybe it's not as trivial problem is it sounds just to keep it as a sort of static historical event. But this this idea that you need to just keep mining more important stuff out of our life to sell it to other people that I don't know about as you point out is a little bit disturbing the high off of myself bucks down. No, listen, I I'm like, I was like virtually high fiving the whole time. But here's the. You know, how do we reconcile something that I think we all crock like on some level, right? How do you reconcile what you just said with our market economy in the United States were shareholders have been led to believe that big tech equals massive returns? I mean. I mean. Right and the different. So then what we're left with is China though. No, no God forbid. No, no. There's a third way. There is a third way to third ways nonprofit. It's a weird thing that we think that the opposite of government is business. The opposite of government is not top down and not top down has two forms business. And nonprofits that's foundations philanthropy. Volunteer organizations a bunch of really smart people if they wanted to could create an alternative to Facebook soon that would it have you'd have to have a reason for existing. It wouldn't be enough that it's called knows book. It have to that's my dad's name for inside joke for my dad. Can't remember the name, but he's eighty eight. He actually does he just likes to call. It knows book. It makes him laugh. Right. But but he can't just say, oh, we're going to create a Facebook. Facebook say here's a Facebook that isn't gonna filter. Your news isn't going to allow hates whatever it is. And let people grab. Tate toward that. Now. One of the challenges that this quote solution is you don't want a whole new tribe of people who are all getting together. Right. Like, I don't want conservative Twitter liberal Twitter. Libertarian Twitter Nazi Twitter..
"amy webb" Discussed on EconTalk
"And I stupidly always click. Yes. Like, I'm sure most people do. And now they've complied with whatever require them to do that. And they're moving along. So I do think that there are some serious issues here in you, give some examples in the book where these corporations or China have done things, and they really pay price for it. You know, they just keep going the Facebook Cambridge analytical problem. The example, give of China pressuring Mary at the way that their website was designed terms of territorial recognition of China's sovereignty over various places that are. Somewhat up in the air, those are serious issues. I think and more importantly, they're just the tip of the iceberg. So talk about a couple of things that you're worried about that that I think are alarming and normally the marketplace would punish these folks said not much does. So so I love I love what you just said. Which is that the mar- under sits curious, right? Why has the marketplace not punished the big nine or at least the G, mafia, right or or at least Facebook. Don't publishable a little bit. I mean, I think they're they're users are down I'm about I'm thinking about delayed deleting my Facebook page, and I'm sure and I've switched to duck duck. Go for my searching, it's a really small step. But these are things that maybe people are starting to do in a little slightly bigger numbers. Maybe, but I you know, again, like, I don't have access to the whole world's data. Thank god. But. And you let's let us REVEAL OUR by like you, and I are digitally savvy people. So, but but I think if you kinda Ming. But you are. But but I think the fact even know what duck duck duck go is. And that that you're somebody who's using it. You know, I think is quite telling, but, but for how long have we continued to hear like how many breaches have we heard about of our trust right over the past twelve months, and we continue to hear outcries people continue to be really upset, and we just don't see significant drops in numbers that would suggest the marketplaces punishing. Companies though the way that they might in other circumstances..
"amy webb" Discussed on EconTalk
"Bullet not bulletin board. What do you call those digital billboard? Where their name and other personal information will be displayed, and it will also trigger social media. Mention on a network called Wibaux, which is one of the predominant social networks in China, and that person's probably their some of their family members, some of their friends, but also their employer will know that they have they have in fact, they've caused an infraction. So they've crossed the street when they weren't supposed to and in some cases that person may be publicly told publicly shamed and publicly told to show up at a nearby police precinct now. This is sort of important because it tells us something about the future of recognition technology and data which is very much tethered to the future of artificial intelligence. Now, better known as the Social Credit score. China has been experimenting with this for quite a while. And they're not just tracking people as they cross the street. They are also looking at other ways that people behave in society and that ranges from weather or not bills are paid on time to how people perform in their social circles to disciplinary actions that may be taken at work or at school to what people are searching on, you know, on the internet, and the idea is to generate some kind of a a metric to show people definitively how well they are fitting into Chinese society. As Chinese people. This probably sounds to the people listening to the show like like a like a horrible twilight zone episode nineteen Eighty-four tight. It's really it's not like, I don't know if that's a good idea. It's more like, are you kidding me? Yeah. And so like when I first heard about this, my initial response was not abject horror. I was curious. I was very curious. But like, here's here's what made me curious. Why bother right? I mean, China has one point four billion people. And if the idea is to deploy something like this at scale that is a tremendous amount of data, and you have to stop and say to yourself. What's the point? So this is where some cultural context comes into play. So I I used to live in China, and I also used to live in Japan, and they're very different cultures, very different countries. One distinctive feature of China is a community reporting mechanism that sort of imbedded into society and going back many thousands of years China's enormous two huge piece of land. And you've got people living throughout it. In fact, they're so spread apart. You have you know? Significantly different dialects being spoken to so one way to sort of maintain control. Over vast masses of people spread out geographically was to develop a culture sort of tattletale culture in so throughout villages. If you were doing something untoward or breaking some kind of local customer or rule that would get report you would get reported sort of a gossipy way, but you would get reported. And ultimately that person that that heard the information would report that on up to maybe a precinct or a feudal manager of some kind. Who would then report that up to whoever's was in charge of the village or town, and then you would get into some kind of actual trouble. This was a way of maintaining social control. And so if you talk to people in China today, a lot of people are aware of monitoring what I find so interesting is that at the moment. The outcry that we see outside of China does not match the outcry that I've observed the lack of outcry that I've observed in China now, there's one other piece of this. That's really important in that. This is that the using a in this way ties into China's belt and road initiative, and you might have heard about the bureau, I this is sort of a master plan to long term strategy that. Helps China optimize optimize what used to be the previous silk road trading round. What's? But it's sort of built around infrastructure. What's interesting is that there's also a digital version of this sort of digital BRI. We're trying to partnering with a lot of countries that are in situations where social stability is not a guarantee, and so they're starting to export this technology into societies in places where there isn't that cultural.
"amy webb" Discussed on EconTalk
"We listened to every episode we've ever done going back to two thousand six or Email addresses mail it contact out or we'd love to hear for. Today is February twelfth twenty nineteen and my guest is futurist and author Amy Webb. She is the founder of the future today institute. Her latest book is the big nine how the tech titans, and they're thinking machines could warp humanity. Amy welcomed econ to thanks for having me your books warning about the challenges we face that are going to face dealing with the reservoir official intelligence, what is special about the book, at least in my experience reading about a and worries about artificial intelligence is that it doesn't talk about a in the abstract. But actually recognize the reality that AI is mostly being developed within very specific institutional settings in the United States to China. So let's start with what you call the big nine. Who are they? Sure. So what's important to note is that when it comes to a there's a tremendous amount of misplaced optimism and fear. And so as you rightly point out, we tend to think in the abstract in reality, there are nine big tech giants who overwhelmingly our funding the research building the open source frameworks developing the tools and the methodologies building the data sets doing the tests and deploying AI at scale six of those companies are in the United States. I call them the G mafia for short, they are Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook IBM and apple and the other three are collectively known as the bat, and they are based in China that's by do Alibaba and tencent together, those big nine tech companies are building the future of AI. And as a result are helping to make serious plans and determination. Nhs for. I would argue the future of humanity. And just out of curiosity. I don't think he say very much at all in the book about Europe is renting happening in Europe in terms of research. Sure. So the, you know, there's plenty of happening in France, certainly in Canada Montreal is one of the global hubs for what's known as deep learning. So this is not to say that there's not pockets of development and research elsewhere in the world, and it also isn't to say that there aren't additional large companies that are helping to grow. The ecosystem certainly Salesforce and Uber are both contributing. However, when we look at the large systems, and the ecosystems and everything that plugs into them overwhelmingly, these are the nine companies that we ought to be paying attention to. So I want to start with China at episode was Mike Munger on the sharing economy. What he calls his in his book tomorrow? Three point. Oh, and in the course that conversation. We joked about people getting rated on their social skills in that those would be made public how nice the people were to each other. And we had a nice laugh about that on. I mentioned that I didn't think that was an ideal situation that people would be incentivized that way to be good people, despite my general love of incentives that made me unease -i and response that episode some people mentioned episode of black mirror the video series. And also some things that are happening in China. And I thought, hey, whatever. But what's happening China is it's just it's it's hard to believe, but tell us about it share. And let me give you a quick example of of one manifestation of of of this trend, and then sort of set that in in the broader cultural context, so there's a province in China where a new. Sort of global system is being rolled out, and it is continually mining and refining the data of the citizens who live in that area. So as an example, if you cross the street when there's a red light, and you are not safely able to cross the street at that point. If you choose to anyways to jaywalk cameras that are embedded with smart recognition technology will automatically not just recognize that there's a person in the intersection when they're not supposed to be but will actually recognize that person by name. So they'll use facial recognition technology along with technologies that are capable of recognizing posture and gait it'll recognize that person is their image will be displayed on a nearby digital..
The U.S. and China Think Differently About Artificial Intelligence
"Ryssdal. We started off talking about the trade gap a big chunk of which although we didn't talk about it. Specifically is the imbalance between what we buy from. And what we sell to China, but more worrying for people out there watching this kind of thing is the gap between the way, China and the United States think about artificial intelligence, specifically, the Chinese companies are making compared to the I that American companies are making Amy Webb is a futurist. She's also an author her most recent book on a I and words going is called the big nine how the titans and they're thinking machines could warp humanity. And you're welcome to the program. Thanks for having me. So as we get going, I need a two things from you. The first is a working person's definition of AI. Sure. So artifice intelligence at its most basic form is just taking data and putting it through a series of processes so that decisions can be made on the other end. So we're talking about things like your antilock. Breaks all of the recommendations systems on Spotify on Netflix. The anytime you write a check anytime use your card there's risk and compliance a on the back end that's making sure there's no fraud being committed. So they're literally thousands of acts of week or what's called artificial narrow intelligence surrounding us every day all day long. Let me get into the subtitle of your book, which is how the tech titans, and they're thinking machines could warp humanity. Tech titans. Are they the standards were thinking about Facebook and Google on all of them. Yes. So basically, there are nine companies that control the future of artificial intelligence and those nine companies are spread between the United States and China six of them are in the US. I like to call them the G, mafia. They are. They are Google. They are Google Microsoft, Apple IBM, Facebook, and Amazon and in China, they're collectively known as the bat by Alibaba and tencent, and it is these nine companies that are effectively building the future of AI. And as a result, they are making determinations about the future of humanity. I just wanna say from the outset that while the subtitle sounds ominous. I actually I actually believe that that that these nine companies are best hopes for the future. I don't actually think they're the villains. But they have to start making difficult choices under extremely challenging circumstances right now. So let's get to those circumstances. And I'm going to have to ask you to explain the whole hopeful note that you strike in this book because as you lay out the thrust of this book is that these companies are driven by two extremely different motivating forces one in the United States is Wall Street, and to some extent, the fickleness of American politics, and then in China, it's. The command economy and and their desire and need to use AI to to establish their their global not dominance. But but power. That's right. And unfortunately, neither of those scenarios puts humans at the center and puts the future of humanity at the forefront. So so here's what's happening in Silicon Valley. We've had no national strategy on artificial intelligence or on any other number of important technologies in areas of science, basically, what that means is that the g mafia are beholden to the whims of Wall Street. And you know, they have to deliver some kind of product on a quarterly cycle as though you can schedule are indeed developments in breakthroughs. You can't give gimme the flip side of the capitalist democratic political situation, which is China and how they are using and looking at a I for their own means. So you know, if you look at China and China's economic situ. The reason that is so important to China is because people's data can be mined and refined in real time to make sure that they are complying with all of the local rules and social norms of society, but artificial intelligence ties into many of the state big initiatives things like digital communications and infrastructure, five G and data collection techniques. And what we're starting to see take shape in real time is a new world order one in which we're trying to sort things out here in the west and in China and its various partner countries, they're reshaping digital infrastructure, and mobility and freedom and access of information, and and what consumers have access to in their own image. Okay. So look, that's all pretty grim. The last whatever it is two minutes of this interview. And yet you are hopeful in this book, I I can't get from from. Where you were two minutes ago to to hopeful in this book because you say by twenty twenty three it could all be upon us. Well, I mean, we can get darker for the John hair. I wouldn't say. I mean, I will say well, but it's upon us right now. And here's here's what we do to get out of this. We have to change the developmental track. That is on and all of us bear responsibility. We have to stop fetish is in the future and talking about a and abstraction and get down to business, which means everybody plays a plays a role here you and me and my dad and folks working on Capitol Hill in folks in the valley, the best possible outcome is that we see courageous leadership within the big nine that they are willing to collaborate in our best interests that they that they work on values that they think about ethics, you know, all of this. So look for bid for me to be the sinecure. But do you believe that that's going to happen? I mean, I mean one hates to pick on Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook, but let me pick on Mark Zuckerberg and Facebook here for a minute. We've been talking about that company and what it's doing now specifically the privacy and use your data. But what in that company's history lead you to believe that they are going to be altruistic and in favor of humanity. When it comes to something like a I nothing. So here's here's what I think is going to start tipping tipping the scale based on what happened in our legislature during the last election cycle. It's pretty clear to me that all of these companies are gonna be facing regulation regulation that they haven't seen before congress doesn't know how Facebook make money you remember that. Senator we sell ads. I mean that that's totally right. Which is which is why the G mafia should be absolutely terrified that that. If they don't figure out a different way forward they are going to face people, regulating them. And that those people have absolutely no idea how any of this technology works that would be a horrifically catastrophic scenario for for the g mafia, and actually it would be such an enormous strategic advantage for China that puts us all at risk. So so you're kind of into barn analogy from the craps table, you're kind of betting on the come here. Right. You know, actually play a lot of crafts. In real life real life. That is never a bet that I would make. But I think in this case, the kind of I don't, you know, I think I think we have to and I think we have to play the odds on this one. And all of this is unfolding right now. And if you don't already feel a sense of urgency than than than the future's going to smack you upside the head in a way that is incredibly uncomfortable in a few years. So that's, but that's the good news. The good news is we can we can change our futures right now if we're willing to make some again uncomfortable
"amy webb" Discussed on The Tech Guy
"But what is a I. Anyway, when people say, a I would they mean, what do you think of you probably think of Terminator or how in two thousand one A Space Odyssey? The computer that wouldn't open the pod bay doors when requested we think I think what we think of with artificial intelligence what we're what we're definitely thinking something called general intelligence, generally, I which is human like, you know, like a human. It has a broad understanding of the natural world world around us, and can synthesize and think about it and so forth. No such thing. Yet exists. We're getting close. Fact, my friend, Amy Webb who wrote the book thinks that that we actually have something pretty close to a general a already at Google. It's called alpha zero. And is quite remarkable. You know, I to me I'll just before before I talked to you a little bit about alpha zero. I'll talk to you about what I think artificial intelligence is. So that we have kind of common term because computers have done this for a long time. They've looked like they're intelligent. They figured out stuff. I mean, even simple calculations. If you don't know what's going on, you know, two plus two if it comes out of a machine. That's wow, interesting. That's intelligent just depends on but what you know about what's going on. What you think intelligence is? But I think. I I would submit that a computer running a program which program is essentially if this happens do that if you get this input. Do that output could see how simple program would be. If I get give me two numbers allowed them together. And give you the result. So he's gonna be the same. Isn't it? If you give it to numbers will always atom up same input same output every single time to me that's calculation and most of what we see in computing is just really rapid calculation of word processors. Just a big calculator. Even you know, some of the things we might think of is intelligent like Amazon echo. Release just a giant calculation. I mean, you can make the case. Well, it it kind of understands what we're saying. Yeah. But you know, it's doing that based on a certain kinds of inputs and trying to match the wave forms up to way forms at knows and make sense out of them. And then then say, well that must be he must have said this. And if if I'm giving that what is two plus two. I'm always going to give you four said ends up being really a big calculator with some sophisticated input features. But yes, but a calculator then there's alpha zero which is a little different. And I would say it's definitely a I to me is a computer running a program. Humans didn't write for it. But that it generated on its own based on an experience of the world. We call it machine learning give it enough data. And it'll start to figure out the rules. We don't have to give it the rules usually in any other program of computer program, you give it the rules that the tell it answers to get but in artificial intelligence. We don't we don't give it the rules. We we or give it some rules..
The complicated truth about China's social credit system
"What Amy Webb is so good about at this. She's a futurist her author of author her new book, the big nine how the tech titans, and they're thinking machines could warp humanity. And she's talking about in some respects, the the the the six in the US the G mafia and the three in China the bat, so you've talked a little bit about what America. Is going to look like a little bit about what China's gonna look like it sounds like at some point. There might be a conflict between the two right? And I think again, you know, we're gonna know when the shots have been fired when you and I are chitchatting like this on Skype and the the lights start flickering intermittently, and there's no transformer that's blown anywhere and there's no storm outside, and it seems weird. And you know, we start to see ourselves locked out of our devices in strange ways, we start to see some of these automated answering systems in our inboxes go a little haywire. China doesn't have to shut off our internet, or, you know, screw with our financial systems to wreak havoc not just in the United States. But all around the world. Why would they what would be the net benefit to something like that? Exerting control and exerting global influence. Probably not be fought with artillery and. That'd be fought with code. Now. I have talked to some who say, and they were criticizing my understanding of China that China while it wants to control its people inside its borders is not as interested in controlling people outside its borders is actually interested in global trade free trade and an economic development. That's the whole point of the Belton road initiative. Right. But what's going to compel a company like the Philippine our country, like the Philippines, for example? Okay. Well, at some point the Philippines, isn't going to be able to pay back. Doesn't matter development deals. You become part of the greater economic co. Heck fear. Right. So that's so here's what's interesting to me. What's interesting to me about this is let's say that we fast forward a little bit. And the fifty eight countries that are currently part of the b R I pilot. All of the citizens in these countries have Social Credit scores or some kind of some kind of score. That that's a Kim to the Social Credit score. That would that that sort of functions as their ability to travel between those countries to trade between our two to purchase stuff. And let's say that companies wind up having a similar kind of rating score similar to the way that we score companies in the US so China could could do some damage by mandating that its partners that are part of the B R. I only do business with those countries companies and individuals who have a score like. Like. Interest in doing that. To push economic incentives and in different ways. But I get my point is that China's I understand why China would want to control people inside its borders because they want a stable economy, they want they don't want Muslims in the in the west getting, you know, causing problems with strikes and stuff. They want it to be orderly. But outside of that, I think they're a little bit more China's go ahead. Well, China was a little less less self sufficient. I mean, they they have considerable they own a considerable amount of foreign debt.
"amy webb" Discussed on Triangulation
"You Leo would never work government might. But here's relate for me now, but but you know, people like Matt Cutts and the right the US digital service. I think he's doing a very good job of convincing techies who perhaps had some an tippety towards government work to come work for the government and Meghan Smith. Former CTO right is brilliant, and wise and knows amazing people. The problem is that people alone like amazing people like that. And like, you know, like that's not enough. The problem isn't institutional one not a personnel one. So the challenges that the US digital service is not like the department of agriculture. So it's funded, but it's it's not seen as as strong vital entity. And at certain it's new so it doesn't have the benefit of. Having existed for very very long time. So there has to be away. I think for us to create. Well, I think I think a good way forward is to take a good hard. Look at all of our existing departments. This is going to like nobody's going to do this eighty never happen. There's never going to happen. But it's probably it's probably a good time to audit. The like the functions of the government and to re m a bunch of noise. The government every president who was eight years is said we should twenty years is said we should do like it's and in a way this is look at this is what makes America for better. Or for worse is we let private industry do it. That's why we have the g mafia government is has is temporal. And and really doesn't seem to have any long-term plan. And there's and we're not a dictatorship. It takes some great dreamily strong leadership to say, this is all wrong. Let's sweep the chessboard clean and start over again. That's not great. But when when on the opposite in absence of having strong central leadership in this country, what we have on the other end of that spectrum is. Market. And the problem with the market is first of all there's a lot of other variables that cause. Stocks to go up and down and investments to hap- Twitter and Ilan whenever he's thinking for five minutes is there's a lot of other factors. Yes. But I'm bringing up east war. It's getting more of a pendulum fast clocks to confess. So so that becomes a problem because now we're making decisions based on money. It looks like a random walk to be honest, perhaps in the direction of a value creation. But you know, and again, there's no strong leadership. Right. So and here's another great example just this morning. So SpaceX is getting ready for it's a dragon launch tonight tonight being or is it sometime early Saturday morning March second. Yep. Boeing is also working on a similar project. Why because the United States hasn't sent a human up on a United States vehicle in eight years why because we haven't had funding..
"amy webb" Discussed on Triangulation
"You know, I think that that is a really smart way forward. Yeah. The only reason I bring it up is because. Often the argument against a I is this kind of Terminator argument or matrix argument with machines become adversaries and have motives and desires of their own Ray kurzweil, always sit out you don't have to worry about that. The machines are going to love us as their creators that never satisfied me either. I think I. I kind of prefer the notion that without mine machine is any a I is is absolutely doing what we've instructed to do the differences instead of telling it how to do it. We give it the rules. And we let a figure out how to do it itself. Just as we did with alpha zero, which is fine as long as giving them the rules. That's fine. Leo, if you're the one who gave them the rules on totally down with that. That's okay with me who's giving because I rules. That's right. And so again, this is where things get complicated. I think that the people creating the rules are not bad people. I just think that like with everybody you tend to work in modulus group. She tend to have a narrow world view, and it's hard to represent everybody. And if you're working under a lot of pressure on your you have to produce stuff quickly. You don't have the luxury of mapping out risk and planning for risk. So let's also just you know, there's a whole other piece of this conversation, which is that, you know, maybe. What you know? We're we're living by some kind of legacy code like we are programmed, right? And maybe we're just transferring our human legacy code into into more mechanical. You know, systems different mechanical systems. So for what that's worth we're talking to Amy Webb. She is a futurist the founder of the future today institute a regular on our shows in the author of couple of books, including signals are talking. And now the new book the big nine how the tech titans, and they're thinking machines could warp humanity. And really what this is a call to step back. Let's think about the implications of what we're doing. Because in a in a way, we're in a race right now, you say that it's China and the versus the US the these are the big two players is that the case. Yes. So again, like the g mafia base in the valley and the bat are based in China. And but but I also just want to point out. We seem to keep approaching big issue big geopolitical issues as though it's the US pitted against China. And there's no other country on the planet. You know, the the the decisions that that we are making affect everybody everywhere. It just so happens that at the moment, there's a there's a ton of capital. There's a ton of activity, and we are starting to see some real breakthroughs. So in the United States, there's an antagonistic relationship or just sort of a non relationship between Washington DC, and and the tech community in silicon alley there, plenty of tiny examples of of how that starting to change. But for the most part, we we have a we spend very little money outside of the military. On serious RND in in science and tech. Technically, we have a few departments that focus on this. But they're not there wolf Alie understaffed. And and all you have to do is take, you know, click on any listen to any episode of twit of the past like three years, and at some point somebody's going to bring up one of these companies did something wrong..
"amy webb" Discussed on Triangulation
"System starts behaving in ways that we didn't think about an advance that is one sign of improvement, or it's a measurement of improvement effect alpha zero modern go masters look at some alpha zeros play and instead of thinking it a mechanistic is earlier attempts have been thought of say, this is art this is beautiful. It's making moose. We'd never expected that are credibly L. Int-? And so I mean, that's obviously a value judgement. But mind is really all about a value judgement. I mean, we don't know what it's it's funny because I think a lot of it comes down to kind of philosophy of mind, whether you whether you believe that everything that happens in the mind ultimately determines everything you feel including love and Hayden joy. It's all mechanistic brain chemistry, or there is some other thing that's happening, and that's really the dividing line. But as as you say as Ray said was it matter like, the idea of think of it as an alien mind just mind island from outer space, but alien in a way that we just don't understand it anymore that we understand ourselves to be honest with you. And part of the reason why I think that's a better a better characteristic is because when we are when we assume systems that we build in our image that we create are going to behave the way that we do. We are not intentionally looking for outliers and focusing on on certainty. The problem is that like name a time in history. When technology didn't at some point four and do some like get you purpose in some way. We didn't think it evolve in some way, nobody thought about an advance. So if we start thinking about AI, we can keep the same acronym. So that's fine. Nobody has to change their logos. If we think about it as alien intelligence, then I think that gives us the cognitive space and the ability to say, you know, what we actually don't know like we can we can try to model this out. But we don't really know what this is going to do. And so we're gonna we're gonna approach this with some deep curiosity. We're going to confront earn tea, and we're going to try to model out some of the Senate Vance, and maybe that means we're going to have some guard rails. And we're going to open ourselves up and do serious collaboration..
In 2019, your smartphone will no longer be king
"This marketplace podcast is brought to you by. Indeed, are you hiring with? Indeed, you can post a job in minutes set up screener questions than zero in on your shortlist of qualified candidates using an online dashboard get started today at indeed that com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. In two thousand nineteen your smartphone will no longer be king from American public media. This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm Molly would. Hey, happy new year everyone. Welcome to marketplace. Tech twenty nineteen addition the future looks about the same as yesterday. Right. This week. We've been looking at what the near future of this year might look like in business and technology. So today an actual futurist on the big trends that will influence tech. Amy Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at the NYU stern school of business and the founder of the future today institute, she said one big trend in two thousand nineteen and beyond is that your phone won't be the center of your life anymore. It'll just be the center of everything else. People aren't rushing out to buy brand new phones with the frequency that we used to now that may not be revelatory. If you look back to nineteen ninety nine we had all these different devices. In addition to a dumb phone and in just twenty short years, all of those different devices have converged into a single device. Ice. So we spent the past two decades converging into one device. We're going to spend the next two decades branching backout and rather than the phone being our primary thing that we look at all day long and have all these features on instead, it'll be the connective tissue tying together. Many other gadgets and devices like smart, yoga, pants, smart, glasses and smart, watches and lots of other different peripherals that help to optimize our lives. So let's talk about this sort of ambience technology future. It relies on connectivity. And we keep hearing that five G is going to be a big part of twenty nine thousand nine. How real is that it's been a while since we've upgraded to the next generation of our wireless infrastructure five G is that ecosystem it's the fifth generation. There are trials underway in different parts of the world. The question is where do we go from here because in order to build out the? Ecosystem you need a lot of investment, you need huge widespread. Collaboration between our four major wireless carriers in the United States, and you're gonna devices and at the moment a lot of the forward momentum that we're seeing is actually not in the United States. It's an Asia. So China has been testing products and services Japan is doing everything it can to ready five G networks ahead of the twenty twenty Olympics. So will twenty nineteen be a pivotal year in the United States. I would say possibly if everybody can come to the table, and and agree on some things. What else do you think is going to be big in two thousand nineteen? We don't a lot of times think of biology as being a really important technology platform. And I think we're going to start to see some serious movement in two thousand nineteen that will challenge our assumptions new types of diagnostic tests, some of which we can start doing in our homes to genetic editing, which will be in the headlines multiple times throughout twenty nineteen. That's a be web professor of. Strategic foresight at the NYU stern school of business and founder of the future today institute tomorrow on the show it looks like this is the year. The space economy is getting real we'll talk with marketplace's Kimberly Adams about the plans and the opportunities, I'm Elliot, and that's marketplace tech. This is a PM. This marketplace podcast is brought to you by. Indeed when it comes to hiring. You don't have time to waste you need help getting your shortlist of qualified candidates fast. That's why you need indeed dot com post a job in minutes, set up screener questions than zero in on qualified candidates using an intuitive online dashboard. And when you need to hire fast, accelerate your results with sponsor jobs. New users can try for free at indeed dot com slash marketplace. That's indeed dot com slash marketplace. Terms, conditions, and quality standards apply.
Goodbye, 2018 a year of data and privacy scandals
"This. Marketplace podcast is brought to you by Kabo this holiday season. Give your loved ones the gift of stress free TV with control center by Kabo the easy way to control everything connected to your TV with just one remote control center is available at C A V, O dot com and best buy control center by capo one remote that does it all. The year that was in business and technology from American public media. This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm Molly would. It is New Year's Eve. And that means we made it friends to the end of twenty eighteen which was by any account, a huge year in the world of business and technology. I mean, fortnight alone, right? There were also huge data and privacy scandals. Amazon search for headquarters movie pass came and went this week. We're going to be looking back at the year. That was an ahead to the stories that will be big in two thousand nineteen in tech policy NCIS which starts next week today. A look back with Tom Merritt, host of the daily tech news show. We both agreed on one thing Europe dropped the mic on tech and privacy with its big new law. The general data protection regulation or GDP are well, it looms over everything because every company that does business in Europe has to comply with it every company that is big in the United States does business in Europe and complying with it usually has knock on affects to the way. It handles privacy. And other markets. A lot of times companies are saying, well, we'll change our practice in Europe. But will also just change it everywhere else for simplification. The DP are got a good at it in a sense because it coincided I think with what I thought was sort of the biggest trend of the past year, which was this sort of collective awareness of the business model of the internet as exemplified by Facebook and Cambridge Analytica. There's the bargain we thought we were making which was giving some data in exchange for free services. And then I think there was this realization that oh, wow. We thought we gave our data to once. I turned out. We gave it to everyone. And it turned out they printed money off of it. Do you agree? Do you think that case to change it a lot for how we think about privacy? Yeah. No it up -solutely. Did you're absolutely right. I I find the case odd. But as most things are it's not the best example of this. A lot of the people reporting on it were shocked shocked to find that this kind of practice is going. Right. It wasn't new it hadn't not been reported on. And this actually wasn't the most aggressive example we've ever seen, but because of the nexus of events regarding attitudes towards Facebook and attitudes towards politics, it blew up and became the poster story for this issue. Yeah. All right. Well, so what do you think though? I mean, this wasn't the only thing that it was actually quite a momentous year. You could argue in tech avent's what what's a big one for you. You know, I think the other thing we're seeing trend wise this year is the eruption of streaming video as a battleground for companies who want to be in it before it really does overtake cable the writings on the wall. Everyone knows that streaming videos overtaking traditional cable service and everyone's getting into position the biggest example of that is Disney fighting off Comcast to buy a large majority of FOX in order to get a back catalog of television from FX FX x. And FOX studios to put in streaming services. But also it looks like they're going to get full control of Hulu after that. So Disney will be in good position to continue to compete with Netflixing prime video after that acquisition. Tom Merritt is host of the daily tech new show tomorrow, we'll talk with futurist Amy Webb about her predictions for the near future of tech. Happy new year everyone. I'm Ali would. And that's marketplace tech. This is a PM December thirty first is coming up fast. And that means time is running out to support marketplace and make your gift go twice as far donate today. A marketplace dot org to invest in news, you value and trust and your contribution in any amount will be matched dollar for dollar by our friends at can Dida. Thanks for believing in what we do.
Can science fiction help us grapple with gene editing?
"The. If we're talking about, gene editing. You had to know we were gonna talk about Gatica from American public media. This is marketplace tech demystifying the digital economy. I'm Molly would. News broke this week about a Chinese scientists who says he edited the genes of two twin girls while they were still in the womb. The goal was to make the girls immune to HIV, but editing human genes at that level is ethically. Controversial and illegal in many countries. It raises questions about creating genetic traits that can be passed on and about a future where people choose the genetic traits. They want in their children, not surprisingly, it's topic. Well, covered in science fiction. I belong to a new underclass. No longer determined by social status for the color of your skin. Gatica gentlemen. Now, we now have discrimination down to a science. That's from the nineteen Ninety-seven movie Gatica about a future where your genes determine whether you'll succeed in life or be considered invalid. Amy Webb is a professor of strategic foresight at the NYU stern school of business and the founder of the future today institute, she told me there are plenty of benefits to gene editing technology, but Gatica social commentary was all to present the parts of that movie that I think were so spot on it wasn't necessarily the technology itself. But the application of that technology throughout society, I think it's entirely plausible that we could be heading into a situation in which due to certain circumstances and the distribution of wealth and the distribution of health care. It's plausible that we could have engineered humans who succeed in life. You know, I'm not talking about huge changes. I'm talking about small things like eradicating certain diseases for certain groups of people in everybody else's kinda just left to deal with Darwinism on its own. So when you see news like we saw this week with at least one Chinese scientists saying that he was doing gene editing on babies before they're born. Do you think to yourself? Okay. The future has arrived. And now these storylines are gonna come to pass to. Yeah. We'll the problem is that that future arrived a couple years ago. So what we heard about the news? This week was not the first instance of a Chinese scientists using crisper to edit the genome so already like twenty fifteen there were we heard about that was that was the first time that we heard about other experiments happening. We did it ourselves in the United States in two thousand seventeen it's just that. Some of the circumstances were different. But this is not our first foray. So what we're really talking about is what happens when we alter or edit, our, gene pool, and whatever the result of that is heritable. On the one hand it's possible to weed out certain genetic disorders on the other hand. It's theoretically possible to create babies with six fingers on each hand. So that in that scene Gattaca where there's a piano player with twelve fingers playing an extraordinarily complicated piece. You know, playing playing a piece that was built for somebody with twelve fingers. You know, it's the aerobically possible that we could be moving into a future in which we are bestowing upon certain people genetic capabilities biological capabilities that other people don't get. You know, that's the real sticky problem with germline editing. It's what becomes heritable, and what are the consequences of that both good and bad? And with that points to is maybe not a Huxley in future, necessarily, or even what we saw Gatica where you know, based on your DNA you were assigned to a worker class or to an elite thinking class, but it's it is possible that we could be moving toward a sort of new economic class of humans. If you were family had enough money and the resources to edit you before you were born. You know, you're going to have certain advantages, and we may find that society discriminates against people who weren't engineered that that does look like a real possibility. Even if we don't have people with six or seven fingers on each hand to play extra hard concertos, right? I mean, these technologies always starts out as we want to prevent disease. But it feels like at some point some version of designer gene editing is inevitable that people are going to want it. Right. So the problem is we tend to use the word designer next two, gene editing a little too often. And I think that makes a lot of people think of almost like an all cart list of genetic traits that you get to choose from. I wanna baby that has curly blonde hair and green eyes and his six and a half taller, whatever. There are some real benefits that that we can be moving toward. As as humans once we are able to add it certain traits, right on the other hand, what are the consequences of that? And I think. We can quickly wander into all kinds of weird scifi scenarios. I think in practical terms. The consequences. We would be dealing with immediately have to do with economic and social status consequences. Amy Webb is the founder of the future today institute, and some of you have been asking what happened to related links. They are not gone. I'm just sick. So I'm conserving, my voice and my energy. But hopefully, you enjoy this extra long interview and hopefully with an sleep broke Kotei and zinc related links. We'll be back tomorrow. I'm elliot. Marketplace sack. This is a PM. Listeners like you who give to marketplace do more than just keep us on the air. You help us grow and get better. It's a way to directly support independent reporting and journalism you trust and to make it possible for us to tell the stories of modern life through our digital economy. And when you give today the impact of your gift will be doubled. Thanks to our friends at Candida donate now at marketplace dot org to make your donation. Go twice as far and thank you.