18 Burst results for "Alex Harris"

"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

07:12 min | 4 months ago

"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

"Like your ramp because i said something to today which is overdue which i love to talk about that because that's actually the number one thing anyone who's not from south florida asks me when i tell them what i do like. Oh how doomed are you. And i love that question because in one sense like you just said yet But in many others the engineering exist. The science does exist technology the policy to make it a lot more. Livable down here. Obviously what. Miami looks like in twenty one. Hundred is not going to be what it looks like now. I would assume more. Gondolas water taxis. But i think there will be some semblance of city year in fifty eight years but the quality of lives could stay pretty good for a lot of people or could go tumbling down the toilet and if we've got political leadership and the policies in place that we have for a lot of levels right now that could be an issue like solutions are out there. This solutions are now in. The science is clear. The engineering is affordable and doable. Is just the part that i think people think science us night big. It's not the leadership that's really the issue knock signs only Died totally agree but leadership is still a thing and it still has to happen to get these things done and you have one hundred thirty thousand ticking time bombs of little mini superfund sites and what you described in. That article is a lack of leadership to deal with it even when it was cheaper. So it's yeah anyway. I think there's all these aspirational things when you look at these masterplans in the city. Really thinking big and then the mundane of okay. I want a permit to build a house. And i want to put in a septic tank. Well you shouldn't really but okay here you go. That's basically what's happening right. Yeah it really is into this day article last year. New subjects are still being installed and in some places across the county. They're being installed to make affordable housing cheaper rather than the extra hundred thousand dollars. It'll cost to drag a sewer main out there on county land that the county is paying for their end. The argument is we want it to be more affordable for the people who there and that is a wonderful thing to want but at the same time are used grooming no affiliation three forty fifty years down the road by building the infrastructure that we know doesn't work we know will fail and will lead even worse health and lifestyle problems for anyone who lives in those condos fifty years from now. It just seems like we have a lot of short sighted thinking down here in florida. A lot of bill. Bill bill gogo and not a lot of stepping back and thinking. How is that working thirty years right. And if i was the federal government did or fema and you were saying that. They're just not that into about spending money on some of these things. I'd just be pointing to the sept issue and say well listen take a real crack at that for five ten years and come back and ask for for other money. Yeah and that's sort of what i've heard whispered from global sources like well you've got a former administration under donald trump's administration sorta was looking at miami dade and said we'll you know we'll give you some money for some other stuff we see you clean up your act first. Miami-dade is still under a consent decree from thirty forty years ago because they just push all their sewage directly into the ocean. No filtered not and that is still an argument with the federal government. Were you know how they claim that the federal government still requires regular progress reports. Remind me day on how it's going to stop dumping sewage in the ocean so thinking about like. How is the county going to develop a long term multibillion dollar plan to get itself offset that feels like that's an extra level of the county is not ready to even though it should have been ready to tackle years ago. Okay i want to pivot a little bit here and just again back to just covering this as a climate change reporter. This is still a relatively new topic. It's an emerging topic. How do you feel that you're covering it. Well i mean just your own personal you write great stories. But then there's this broader context of like okay. Well globally. what is miami doing even pointless because we're not going to get the emission issue under control and so you've to always unsure. Remind yourself your grounding. You're telling these local stories but how's it been covering it hard question the answer so i try to look at the patch of ground directly in front of me right like how can what is the greatest good story line to do if that someone showing up at a county government meeting in saying i really think you should ask for. You should build to a higher standard or hey you shouldn't raise the taxes on this neighborhood or hey you should raise this tax to afford Storm water pumps. You want to build. Whatever if it's something that i can that can motivate someone down here to advocate for change or asked for change. You're getting involved in the conversation. That is a wit. I don't think that there is an article i could write at. Some point of the un is reading. Say oh my god. We need a stricter climate change for like agreement between all these nations. I have my eyes on the ground directly. A blinders on. I'm here to talk to people from south florida and you're talking about florida. There's lots of wonderful incredible international journalists doing the work of how does the globe get around to fixing this. How do we all change it. And i try to like stick more local. Because i also think it can get overwhelming. If you really broaden the focus out and i think people don't like what everyone down to your talks about the doom and gloom and if you focus on solutions focus on action and advocacy and things that you do to change the situation bass a more fruitful style of reporting and writing and also i write war international stories. Nobody reads so that guy my decision making and your your editor. I'm sure to got right. Alex is going to separate topic. I'm curious about the environmental community there. And it's in some ways. It's splintering on the issue of climate change and you know even being like an adaptation group in their their emerging in miami. I always see and it's really kinda cool. How does that work as a reporter. The you know the. Let's say you're dealing with climate justice climate equity. They might have very different priorities. When you talk about these plans at the fema might be doing then. You might have more conservation oriented groups at well. How does this affect the wildlife and the bird population have. Do you feel they're monolithic. Or is the environmental committee really quite diverse there as a climate topic the climate and environmental community here and the advocacy role is pretty small by myself calling the same three people. And i've tried very hard to broaden that really when you get people who are well versed on local issues handfuls of people a handful of groups which is disappointing. I know other cities have more robust advocacy in philanthropy groups around this stuff. So i wish we had more of that but there is a splinter. It's not a very outrageous blitzer like you mentioned earlier actually what you just said When it comes to the back bay and building maybe doing discount bay. Fact-based study that the army is doing to protect protect south. Florida from of the wall is not popular with anybody. But the dude won't comedy is slightly more popular amongst the climate groups. Because they okay. You're getting your nature base solutions. You're getting something that allows people have access to the outdoors. Andrew offered protection. This is more like it but then you have the eat. Strictly like the opposite of climate hawks environmentalists. Who are saying no. Don't put anything in biscayne.

Andrew Alex five ten years donald trump last year thirty years florida Miami south florida thirty forty years ago today one hundred thirty thousand hundred thousand dollars three people Florida three forty fifty years fifty eight years Hundred one sense fema
"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

07:28 min | 4 months ago

"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

"Developers already monetize this though as it happened. Just like you're in a condo that's post-wall view type thing you know. They'll they'll figure a way to monetize if it happens in another part of that and again. I'm probably mixing some things up. That was fema and the federal government was thinking about this. But then the city of miami or miami dade creed is really ambitious proposal instead of that. Is it like one in the same. Or they're gonna have dunes mangroves and that they're using work on a nature based solutions to prevent them the flooding and storm surge. Now does that have anything to do with sea level rise or that is just focused on storm surge so right now the idea is to come up with an ad because there's a limited time where the army chorus here working on this draft and a limited time where we can get the wording of this final report end so that it could potentially be funded by congress so right now the focus is really on storm surge and is not a county lead idea. Technically developers actually submitted this idea their own version of the higher the renting firms to the renderings and talk about the potential model. Although obviously they didn't give us Had three years to do it in these engineers had like three weeks to do it but the idea was supported by developers in downtown miami and backed up by my day. County hits the mining politicians. Who all tried to are are working in the process right now of convincing the army corps to change. Its mind and say okay. Well we have a wall. What if it's only ten feet instead of twenty and there is a do also and so it looks a little bit better which is a huge issue for the downtown set and it has a more injury solutions. It's it's the mangroves will slow a storm surge they will Clean water which created a recreational area for voters like pitch sort of the multiple benefits crowd. Here is saying we can do better than justice. Seal all so we'll see how that goes right now still in the thick of it but yeah it was. It was Politicians and resilience offices here have been really working with army core trying to get them to be a little more flexible on what that could look like and people with developers have a huge investment. The huge stake in what the future of the city looks like including the protections like they to keep investments safe if they're the kind of developer who holds onto for thirty years and they want people to buy and people are scared of sperm. storage newspaper. is your ovaries. They won't come in by four billion dollar condo directly on the waterfront in downtown miami Pressing concern for a live real estate people out here okay. So another article. You wrote fantastic articles about septic tank. You don't normally tucked tanks are going to be so exciting and it's going to be so interesting. But in the context of seal or is and flooding. It was great. And so you were talking about how these ticking time bombs hundred and twenty eight hundred. Thirty thousand septic tanks and they're building more and some of them are ready kind of exploding so to speak in the ways that the impact biscayne bay which is just as beautiful bay there but it's having all sorts of pollution issues and so i just want to say as i was reading this i'm pretty jaded. I mclamb a guy so cynical about everything. I was getting so angry and it just reminded me how florida is really run in your article. Just you know. Every time is city officials even though the they have good faith efforts. They want to solve these problems. Or just they kept okaying news update permissions or you're supposed to they're trying to convert these updates to go into the city system. The sewer system like most rational large cities had decades ago. And yet they're still half as bad or they still come up with excuses not to require anyone so just in that context. Maybe one elaborate a little bit more of what you were saying that article. Yes so. I think it's funny these. We don't expect the subject during the sexy one. But i will tell you never got more emails in my professional career from anything written than stuff to tanks people care so much shit up that dictates great. I'm always as a reporter thrilled. People care about what i write about. It is funny that this is the climate issue. Everybody in south. Florida has a lot of opinions on speak. It's important one it's in. That's kind of what i try to write about. Is this something that affects lots of people you know the idea of having been taking. Your home is grades. Cheap until it isn't it's better than paying that county sixty dollars a month or whatever it is until it blows up and you are forced to trade out and join the joined. The city sewer line or whatever which could be ten fifteen thousand dollars and the majority of people who live in south florida. Do not have that cash and ready to go. So what we have in florida in miami dade specifically like you said at one hundred thirty thousand septic tanks better still here right now in like ten thousand of them flood regularly and fail regularly because the several feet of drainage area that they're supposed to have is there any more. The rottweiler has risen selection that little layer of salt underneath a porous. Rock is the bit that of south. Florida florida is full. And we just right into your septic tank and like you said it. Wicks that away taking straight into biscayne bay leads to high nutrients fish kills and all sorts of gross stuff. Lots and lots of swimming advisories big problem breasts year and it's kind of intractable because politicians let it be that way ahead opportunity to solve it for decades. They knew the problem since the fifties which miracle points out and they continually kicked the candle. They said it was too expensive when it costs a million dollars too expensive when it costs a billion dollars and now it's three four more billion dollars to fix all because they didn't want to face the wrath of residents were at the pay for developers by forcing them to all new. Construction has to connect to sept instead of septic in easy thing that most civilized cities and counties across the country did a long time ago especially when they're facing environmental problems. Like we are down here with the subject tanks yet. It's an equity issue because not everyone can pay for it and it is eight environmental issue because of climate change. Raising groundwater levels is a climate issue now and could lead to all sorts of problems in. It's something that the county has only just now started to address but finding the money to address it. Related counts this point. They're just counting on the federal government Today and the federal government is not really interested in doing that. So it's a tough spot down here. Well as i was finishing reading. And i was gonna comparing it to the previous article about these masterplans. All these ambitious ways to deal with flooding in walls and such and i thought to myself they're doomed. Because if they how much they kicked the can on the issues of septic tanks you guys can even muster the government fortitude to deal with this issue which is just so awful that how are they going to really make these other tough decisions and can be really angry. Angry about the history of florida. Year florida when you read the swamp right we. Everyone is operatives. Read the swamp. And you're just get angry as used to see all these bad decisions that have made and like you said. Miami is supposed to be the serious big international city and they can't manage to put people on like a city sewer system. They're just still building septic tanks and it's like sand it's limestone compared to the bedrock of other cities. When you put in sewer. They still took the cheap easy way. Out and put in septic tanks again this issue of equity. Well there's you know lowering people all over the country and they still managed to get them on city sewer so anyway. That was a bit of a rant. I know i. I like your ramp because i said something to today which is overdue which i love to talk about that because that's actually the number one thing anyone who's not from south florida asks me when i tell them what i do.

congress twenty thirty years three years hundred miami dade ten feet miami Thirty thousand septic tanks three weeks one hundred thirty thousand today south florida Florida decades ago four billion dollar Miami sixty dollars a month ten fifteen thousand dollars ten thousand
"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

05:47 min | 4 months ago

"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

"Have agreed to build future buildings to that accept that as their standard so when i referenced it down year the kind of already is that easy understood benchmark that i can say no. I didn't take this number out of nowhere. You're elected officials have decided that the next morgue they built will be prepared for x. Amount of ceelo rise and that comes into play. Sometimes when you talk about things like florida powering lights nuclear power plant down here in which is not planning on average level rise. They're planning on far far far less. And it's easier rather than saying the miami herald interviewed twenty seven scientists. All think it's too low you can say it's below standard that every local government area is agreeing to build which really makes it much more powerful and other client contacts have sprung up around the state tampa scott won. The west coast has one central. Florida has a couple and they're all in the process of setting their own like local celery standards. They think everyone should adhere to which i hope they get that done fast because that definitely makes life easier doesn't come off as biased if you're just quoting what the government's doing that in you know. That is very helpful. I mean i'm i bet. If you talk to scientists they would say it's too conservative but you as a reporter as the media. You have to go on something and you're not they're employing your own sea level rise scientists. Maybe that's ten years from now. But that's good. I mean i think that's great that they do that and i'm sure that's always gonna probably be modified but there has to be some sort of baseline that you guys work from. That's great. they did that. They created an organized way to do that yet. And they updated every five years too so i in december of twenty nineteen they updated it and it went up tremendously so it stays with the current science to. Did you know if we've talked about how onless he's still university of miami right. He hasn't he is on that committee and he is the reason that they have the extreme curve on our choose yes strong feelings about. Yeah but he signed off on even what they've got right now. right it was. It was a little bit political. But yes he he did eventually sign off although he did ask that they include the much higher because he you know and i talked to him for that story and that's gets important to talk to a range of scientists like you said some conservatives something that's too much but it's nice to have that baseline and talk to the other scientists around and be able to have informed stance so i i appreciate the Yeah i've been following him for decades and he's always adding two or three feet. It seems like boy back. Remember when he used to say three feet and that was quaint so that was well. Let's go back to some of the stories you've written one above and beyond the please clear this up like maybe confused. Some of them in the fema released a plan that talked about how to keep some of the flooding out of the city of miami and it requires a giant wall. And right this is not something that's necessary gonna happen but these are all just sort of proposals and plans that you guys need to start thinking about. Could you elaborate with the is the ten or twenty foot wall. That's potentially a part of the proposal without talking. You're you're not this which i could so like. We're talking about the return on investment is something that is really a really salient point when it comes to talking about how to take action and no one loves her live better than the army corps of engineers so after the rounds of hurricanes at twenty seven hundred twenty eighteen federal government funded a bunch of studies to come and take a look at areas hit by hurricanes. And say okay. How can we prevent against storm surge and yes. We're talking about storm surge plus level rise in the future which is great. It's always nice to have federal interests. Federal money that research and the idea is whenever you complete it. Whatever solution the core prescribes if it gets approved by congress and funded. There is a sixty five percent federal match. So they'll pay for almost all of it which is sort of tantalizing any local government because these are really expensive proposition. Although like we talked earlier not that expensive compared to the idea of leaving it all to get destroyed by the keys has won. All your county has one in miami. Dade has hidden miami-dade the solution is elevating a ton of buildings and flood proof as in critical infrastructure hostels stations what treatment ex but the signature piece of it and was controversial. Heart is that they think the best way to stop storm surge not sea level rise not hurricanes just storm surge is to build a giant and this wall stretches for miles and miles. Long coast at some points going into biscayne bay. Some point going a couple of miles inland and making some neighborhoods on the outside of the wall. Some neighborhoods of the inside of the wall and it is highest sort of into downtown brickell area. It is estimated to be around twenty feet and in some places as low as one and then also having floodgates on the banks of the rivers canals dak and the army chorus math and modeling shows that if it doesn't install this it could prevent a tremendous amount of storm surge and save billions and billions and trillions of dollars. real estate. And ashley lives down here. But it's controversial because nobody wants to twenty football blocking the view of the bay even if that will one day rise thirty feet up and come to get them at the at the hands of a category five storm so it's sort of a a look. What is the tragedies of tomorrow. We should be preventing versus. What are you taking away from all of life today and it's a tough say a tough choice for a lot of people down here. It doesn't seem like there's local support for that wall and we should have a an answer from our county over the summer whether we're going to forward with this project or whatever to stop and slow down and come up with some other options i can see real estate developers already monetize this though as it happened. Just like you're in a condo that's post-wall view type thing you know. They'll they'll figure a way to monetize if it happens in another part of that and again. I'm probably mixing some things up. That was fema and the federal government was thinking about this. But then the city of miami or miami.

ten congress thirty feet two miami sixty five percent three feet twenty seven hundred twenty foot biscayne bay tomorrow Florida twenty seven scientists today ten years december of twenty nineteen billions and trillions of doll twenty eighteen twenty football one
"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

05:36 min | 4 months ago

"alex harris" Discussed on America Adapts the Climate Change Podcast

"Downtown miami. I'm thinking of somebody who lives in. Little haiti in is barely holding out of their house because of gender vacation that cost. I worry about how unevenly that cost is going to be applied. When is it that makes sense talking about expensive. Not necessarily like that. Number out of context is not ohio but what it actually means in context of the residents of the city. Okay and so to your point though okay. Is that expensive in regards to the future costs if you do nothing and how do you bring that you have a unique responsibility. I mean maybe there are a few other sectors but there's actually a lot of sophisticated modeling going on saying if you don't do x. y. and z. It's going to cost twenty five billion dollars and there's a lot more of that kind of economic modeling coming out. Do you try to bring that into your articles in that almost to me. It's like kind of breaking stories like listen if they don't spend five billion dollars it's gonna cost the citizens of the city fifty billion dollars and that's just not some pulling out of nowhere. These are the those future projections in climate. Change is all about future projections. Which makes your job a lot harder. But you try to bring that in as really gets more urgency to the story. And i think i can always be doing a better job if this realizing now. I forgot to talk about what. I'm about to in this piece of water master plan but so we have a few readers are where the four counties down here in south florida got together about a decade going to form the south florida climate compact. I'm so before when the state was abandoning their responsibilities to privacy for seal the rising climate change these forecasts got together and started working on policies coming up with a similar standard and putting out research and using it to inform. How can government how they can prepare for sea level rise and one of the most recent days they did with lee came out last year early. Last year was a report on the business case. It was an arline return on investment. Study for what is it gonna cost. Cities counties to adapt and how much will cost if they don't and broke it down. I think miami dade county had the absolute best return on investment attended a one and that didn't encode everything that was just some things just the is just elevating view buildings but there is a tremendous tremendous financial. They're a tremendous amount of financial reports out there. That show adaptation is one hundred percents worth for both the federal government whether they've developed a storm and down to the individual resin. Whether you have to go stay at a hotel for a couple of months for a couple of months if your house is ruined or if you can stay home the whole time but yeah the numbers are there. The data is there. It's very clear. And i can do much better job reporting because we've written about it before but i sometimes forget not. Everyone reads every single thing. And i think it's also good to give people some context. I always forget to this. Problem makes your job harder. You've got the city of miami but then you've got miami. Dade and the counties in florida can be really powerful may be compared to maybe some other states in. so you've these overlapping government entities. Then you got local communities there and so when we talk about miami it it's it's a much more complex thing than that right. Miami dade is the biggest county in florida the most populous country. I should say and there are thirty. Four municipalities in it of which is one. Miami is the biggest in terms of population. But yeah it's a huge. I say miami. Most the time talking about the greater miami area and yeah you'll see miami beach in the county will lead on some of these policies that you have three dozen other disabilities that don't care or don't look into this or and there's only so much power. The county actually has over those cities so really. It is complicated. Getting up in the wagon on board heading the same direction thing that the county is tasks down here which can be really complicated. I consider homepod beach part of miami. It's just a brawling mess of commercial area from the all away debris. Let's happen there. Yeah south florida is definitely its own beast can hurt the rest of the state and yeah people will say all the way up to columbia county. Hope by heavy but i understand i. I'm from the west coast of florida too. So there's just different attitude in against some of your stories. When i'm always thinking like when you're writing a story you have to wear all these different hats. It's again the urgency of an issue like you're analyzing the city's plan for flooding or septic ings or whatever and so much comes down to the science of sea level rise and as a reporter working for a newspaper and you've colleges in your articles to its. Well i'm starting from a position that this you know. Newspaper thinks it's going to be five sea level rise because we've talked to x y and z scientists. But the city's only thinking to two feet. How do you create a baseline for yourself. Because that maas create that context on the questions you want to ask. Are you guys doing enough. How does that work rights. That's a great question and actually wind that thankfully. Before i even got here kind of already had an answer so when i was referencing south florida climate contact earlier. One of the most important things they've done is they set a local steel rise standard. So is your readers. Now as your audience knows it's you know the amount rate of similar is is not the same everywhere and the west coast can experience different east coast gulf coast totally different subsidence. Whatever so every five years crop of the best scientists in the four counties down here get together and they produced a document that shows the four five curves. You think you should be looking at and here are the two curves that we think should be your range so i think the no intermediate high is the upper boundary in the Intermediate is the lower boundary. So you've a range of seventeen to twenty one inches or whenever it is off the top of my head and all of the local counties down here have agreed to build future buildings to that accept that as their standard so when i referenced it down year the kind of already is that easy understood benchmark that i can.

seventeen fifty billion dollars Miami dade two feet Last year twenty five billion dollars thirty florida Miami five billion dollars south florida last year two curves Four municipalities miami beach three dozen both One miami dade county homepod beach
"alex harris" Discussed on Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

02:56 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

"Spirituality with leading researchers, thinkers and their critics? I'm your host, Alex Harris, and today we welcomed William Ramsay to skeptical. William is an attorney researcher author filmmaker. And Creator of William. Ramsay. Investigates. which is really quite an amazing impressive body of investigative journalism and interviews at listen to so many of them I think I I came across William on Opperman report and he's done a ton on there but it's just incredible body work and it's really really relevant to the stuff that I wanna talk about and that's why I reached out to William and he was nice enough to kind of come on and talk about some stuff. It's such a great fit for some of the stuff I've been looking into a some of the books we should mention a pulled mop abomination, devil worship, and deception in the West Memphis three. You guys have heard me mention West Memphis three and sometimes I. Say like Inside Baseball and I know there's a lot of people that. Don't totally get that. I. Mean. The get it kind of on A. PLACEHOLDER meam level but. Williams really gonNA walk us through that because he's done some amazing research on that, and then there's children are the beast Alastair Crawley's shadow over humanity really interesting book in also I should mention of Emil movie that you need get. We'll show that just a minute and then finally prophet of evil. Alister Crowley nine eleven and the New World Order so William. Just pretty amazing stuff there. It's great to have you on. Thanks so much for joining me. Right thank you very glad to be here. So think right off the bat a lot of people are super intrigued hooked into this. Attorney researcher. Writing Books on curly in West Memphis three and not your traditional kind of True crime stuff I mean that's not it's not at all your thanks. So tell us a little bit about how you came to do what you do. William Ramsay investigates well, I was always kind of a person who is willing to research things that were not covered by the corporate media. I went to law school in DC and worked there from ninety five to ninety eight and saas very remarkable things at briefly worked on the. What they call the suicide of Vince Foster, which is really the murder of Vince Foster. He was murdered and dumped in a park foresee park. Just we can't just leave that hanging for people who don't know how. Quick quick sketch that case what how significant is what it's about and why it's not Zeus..

William Ramsay Memphis Vince Foster William Alex Harris Alister Crowley Baseball Alastair Crawley murder Emil Attorney researcher
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:11 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Teeth that the team was apologizing to crawler get on it because I think at some coffee breath and I really I hate you had lived watches luckily it's just seven thousand anyway Alex services here she is bond reporter for Bloomberg call record on our chief US economist of course of the work I can I was there both your R. Bloomberg interactive brokers studio so the March toward jobs day almost complete yeah looking forward to it tomorrow I call remind us where your team is in terms of its forecasting and also sort of the general mood leading up to this sure well this is the last job report of the decade so while the number and on a high note to a base in our forecast of consensus is actually somewhat conservative there at a hundred sixty thousand my team initially coming out of the November report paid the December number it two oh five so much higher than consensus and as we filled in the data and updated the models and re run our forecasts that we're standing by that tool five prints well what I'm looking for a of consensus yeah print a certain number of reply so part of it is said that the trade war impact on the jobs data was a much softer than what a lot of folks anticipated and also the deceleration in economic growth which should have drag down the pace of hiring a towards the end of the last year didn't really happen to the full extent that a lot of people lot anticipated and so I think you know I I I I a slew of factors not really are setting us up for restaurant in December and probably that string carrying over into January as well I don't think we're looking at two hundred thousand plus prints for the bulk of a twenty twenty but I think we'll have a little bit of a a hot streak here right carry on for a few months longer Alex Harris sponsor Porter of liberty so how would a hot jobs report be read by the bond market tomorrow it's very much going to depend on that wage data you know again ever was looking for the wage inflation like that seems to be the missing piece is not so much the headline number it's that wage data and right now I mean average hourly earnings right and I think I can sense and then look for more.

reporter Porter Bloomberg US R. Bloomberg interactive broke Alex Harris
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:08 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg television and Bloomberg radio so we're going to the market so we are kind of bouncing around a little bit here a little bit higher on the S. and P. the Dow nasdaq though remain just a little bit lower the higher we should point out volumes are exceedingly low as they typically tend to be sandwiched around a a major holiday like Christmas yeah we do want to talk a bit about the business week economic situation situation I make it sound so formal and serious let's bring in our roundtable in Bloomberg news bond reporter Alex Harris is with us along with bluebird economic senior U. S. economist you'll initially to via a you lean I do want to start with you there was no economic news today right not today but next week will the date the wheels slowly start to pickup right so we are going to get I is a manufacturing and that's an important one that's an important one and I think could potentially be a good market moving events so this will basically already should reflect any impact from the tree trolls you know that we were witnessing back in December so be a strong numbers what you're saying I think we could see the number of going back above us fifty break even level with the polls there or not it's a big question but at least for December we could see a pop in in the index so I was Alex obviously a big narrative this year has been of what we got out of the fed this year right now they seem to be sort of playing around on the short end of the curve she's keep the repo market in Jack a couple days away from the end of the end of the year anything to worry about we got lots a refill operations coming in the next couple of days they're just announcing the schedule we have three on Monday we have another one on Tuesday just to make sure you know month and is going to year and is going to be as smooth as possible but again it all remains to be seen because you know part of the issue is as the primary dealers don't have the balance sheet to handle this they can't pass it on to the rest of the market so you know there is some expectation that you all are going to see some bombs not necessarily like two percent to ten percent spike they use on September and maybe not what we saw last December when one to six or seven percent but you are the others some volatility that's to be expected and then also I note that on Friday were releasing the F. once we get the FOMC minutes at two o'clock it's a bit of an odd time because of the holiday on a Wednesday but you know those are going to be interesting to see you know what's ahead thinking about going forward what what is the ongoing conversation about some of these issues in the repo market that Sharon Powell has highlighted in his press conference in which he gets an awful lot of questions on in the in the press conference it really has shifted I feel like yeah he definitely especially in December I think because there was really nothing for them to broadcast in terms of any sort of rate cut right or the expectations were you know going forward everything was supposed to be pretty pretty and change you know the questions and shifted to repo and so these are going to be the big things next year for the market I was just talking to someone about this is you what are the you do on the regulatory front one of those early discussions looking like because Powell has said like whatever they do is going to require going through that whole process of that's a commentary it and letting people way in and going back and forth which means that we might not get any changes or any alleviation in there on the regulatory front maybe in some next the end of next year I mean that was how long we're talking here what's what's going to be interesting what is going to be the next hurdle what's going to be a next step for the fish is it going to be a tax season sometime in April because all these changes that it's what you're talking about they're not going to take place until after that I guess yeah I mean and this is the other big thing that we've been hitting on is how are they going on wind as you know these people operations is temporary reserves being added right now so what happens when those come out how are they going on wine from this because again as I mentioned before that is no problem getting into a situation they just can't get themselves out I remind everybody I think we assume that everybody understands what the remark it's all about but it's important to keeping kind of liquidity especially on some of the investment houses your hedge funds your money market funds correct yeah so it's an overnight lending market you know and usually the loans are collateralized by treasury's agency MBS is are sort of the years your big he's on a really short term basis absolutely and so these are the things that you have to be worried about and then you know treasury supply I mean that senses still remain relatively large and we we do have massive deficits right and so you know as grown more needs a finance and there's less for an interest in it like you know you got to figure out what you're doing and and that has a I think that's a great thing might remain I wonder I go back to you know those times and we just had conversation after cut conversation about the growing deficit the government and you had lawmakers on both sides saying this is not a good thing and we've gotten so much away from that yeah time certainly have changed but I mean we keep talking about the fed cited this I mean talk about the physical side of it a little bit more because there is some speculation here that not only ever going to see the treacherous once but that we could see Congress come back into play and actually you know provide some sort of stimulus to the economy I think we're going to continue to see increasing budget deficits what like we had one trillion budget deficit in two thousand nineteen how about two trillion deficit that is quite possible right that is quite possible even even if we we're going to get into a mild downturn and mild recession can actually mean a two trillion deficit reaching eight percent of GDP so that's a possibility because of first of all revenues are slow or they'll lord give it because of the text cuts and jobs act of two thousand seventeen now we have this widening deficits and if we have even less revenue in the down to that means even wider next year is an election year so nobody wants any fiscal austerity next year so that means that there's some appetite for a fiscal stimulus it's just that the package that the administration might have to come up with it has to be so we enticing for Democrats right they can not and they reject and they need to great will rise the scary thing for the repo market is because especially the way the market has changed so much over the last decade or so is that you know dealers are now in the storage business or not in the moving business anymore so the more collateral that comes in because this will be deficit finance you know what that means that that's more that they have to hold on their balance sheets as more that they have to finance so something's going to have to give here either that means the fed's going to full blown Q. we to sort of monetize some of this debt or they got a relaxing these regulatory rules and get the liquidity flowing can keep us all very very busy in twenty twenty no doubt about it so thanks you guys Bloomberg news Bonner Porter Alex Harris of course and bluebird economic senior U. S. economist Yelena chalet to via turning us here in our New York studio quick check on the bond market and we certainly have seen a bit of a quiet market right now you've got that ten year note with the yield of one eighty seven you are listening and watching Bloomberg businessweek Carol Masur along with remain Bostick and this is Bloomberg.

Bloomberg
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:34 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Go ahead, Sumer spending. Looks like it's pretty good trajectory earlier this week unit motor vehicle sales. We keep saying we've hit peak on us in the cycle. We've hit peak autos. And sure enough, maybe ical sale seventeen point three million union units at an annualized pace, that's very strong number at tells you not only as consumer confidence running close to the highs. But consumers are putting their money where their mouth is, and they're actually spending on these discretionary big ticket items, which tells you, they are still very confident in the outlook, Carol was very careful as to where she was looking when she said stupid, choose straight ahead. You know, but it's that, you know, we go back to it's obviously, if you've got more if you feel confident about your job, if you've got more money in your pocket, he feel confident about spending comes down to that. It's a one point eight like to make here. Hurry, up very briefly. There's lots to talk about the fed cutting rates. Right. Because we're worried about the flattening yield curve and whatnot. If we look at things like mortgage rates on loan rates whatnot, they're already very, very low. It's not clear that rate cuts actually do much to help those categories. So rate cuts, might not help the economy and just squandering munition that could be used when we actually need it further on down the road. Good note to end on. That's an excellent point. And I think Mohammad-Ali area and wrote a piece about this and the efficacy rate cut. So thanks team excited for tomorrow. Alex Harris reporter for Bloomberg Carl Riccadonna chief economist that's your business week economic Alex Scotla. I love this little Dave Wilson there as well. Coming up. We're talking about totally an iceberg to bring water to millions the story in the magazine and on the Bloomberg, it's great. We we'll get into it in just a moment. But first, let's get some world national headlines for that. We have Bob moon. Hey Bob Jason Carroll. Thank you. Today's day commemoration was an occasion for France showcase its long friendship with United States, but President Donald Trump and French president Emmanuel Macron also had time to discuss all the make you refuse upon which they disagree. They talked about Iran world trade and climate change. Vice President Mike Pence in Roanoke Virginia for celebrations. Commemorating day is encouraging efforts by US and Mexican negotiators in Washington who are looking to avert President Trump's threaten tariffs on Mexico. Those talks resumed this afternoon, the meeting yesterday. Was was positive. We welcome. The efforts of Mexican officials golfer solutions to the price at our southern border,.

President Donald Trump Carol Roanoke Virginia Bob Jason Carroll Sumer Vice President Bloomberg Alex Harris Bloomberg Carl Riccadonna President Bob moon Mike Pence Dave Wilson Alex Scotla Emmanuel Macron chief economist Iran
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:15 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"He will be speaking with China's president Xi Jinping at the end of June at the g twenty summit initially. You had a little bit of lift off the lows of the session within the S and P five hundred. We're now down about two percent for the day that's up from when we were off about two and a half percent, though, still very very much read on the screen and to provide some perspective on all of this. I want to bring in Alex Harris bond reporter, and you lay not she'll yet you are senior US economist Yele now we I have to start with some of the initial reaction that we've seen within the equity markets. And then we folded into your world of the bond markets, and the fed just the fit react to this. Not as weeklies that. But I think you know, they obviously watching it closely and they're watching financial conditions tightening. So if you check confrontation on the Bloomberg terminal, you will see that financial condition sexually titan as much as fifty percent of from like just ten days ago. So this is something that, you know, something like that happened back in December financial conditions tightened the fed hike, and we all know what happened after that. So obviously, the fed doesn't want to allow financial conditions tightened so much further. But at the same time, then I'm going to react to each and every move in the market. So they watching it closely but stay put like they on hold for now. So Alex Harris come on in here. You've got a great story on the terminal today talking about a fed cut, and I have to say getting my head around this given where we were several months ago is so amazing. But you've got some great reporting. So give us the context for that allows you to sort of put this story out. Well, so for starters Jason part of it is just keeping an eye on watching fed funds. And we watched the way the treasury market move those morning and the way yields had reacted. And I said let me look and see what are fed odds now because remember it was just on may first Drome Powell's press conference that he said, you know, some of the the cross currents that we had seen in the first quarter things like trade concern. And the T there those have faded. And so you started to see, you know, the potential for a rate cut be pushed back further into twenty twenty. And then all of a sudden, you had a really hard rally in those fed funds futures today, and that's kind of what caught her I, and what people were saying about this move is that it's not necessarily means that oh, these terrorists are imposed were go the feds gonna cut rates. It's more like this is just gonna be a potential constraint on growth, and that's what they're looking for here. And that's why I think the market moved as fast as it did is their chance that this move got a little too little too hard. Yeah. Perhaps. But I think right now there are a lot of issues the trade and not just on the China front. Look had a story from the you know about the EU today and they're prepping list should Trump. Go ahead and impose tariffs on e you autos. So I mean, you're not just fighting with China. You're potentially fighting on another front with Europe. Well, you brought up a good point about the rate of. Of change that second derivative move you Leinna? I'm looking at a two year that's down eight basis points to a to nineteen tenure it's down six basis points to two forty are we fairly valued. Now at two forty on the tenure I think maybe would happen to the markets. They probably rent a head of themselves. Earlier just can completely discounting old what could happen actually to trade negotiations. And now we see the reversal of that. And you know, maybe this volatility will continue for a little bit. But what will really matter for the fit and for the rates markets. After all is that what happens to you as Konami growth and inflation. So I think the impact right now of this trade debacle is not particularly it's not so dramatic as we might think it. It is just looking at the markets right now. So we think maybe two tenths of three tenths of a percent. In terms of the impact on GDP growth this year from what has already been imposed, but will be really keys to see what happens next whether the US continues and goes on and imposes tariffs on the remaining three hundred and twenty five billion. So that will include consumer goods, and that will have a much bigger impact on on economic growth may be in the order of half a percentage point, that's our office. But will really matter is whether consumer confidence is shattered consumer spending starts to slow down, and that will have a spinal impact on on US growth, and so Alex where will we see this first or next in the in the bond market or across the markets that you watch the react, the trade and tariff reaction, it's going to be kind of. Interesting because you know, there was the story or there's a tweet earlier this morning about Chinese academics discussing China either selling a bunch of treasuries or not buying anymore. I think the debate is up, but it is a debate that is important worth having. And I think there's something interesting here about this. Because if in fact, the Chinese say, you know, what we're gonna pull back out of the treasury auctions, and we're not going to buy as much. What's going to happen is you're going to see primary dealers have to come in and take more of those issues. And so then what happens is that's all paper that sits on the news primary dealer balance sheets that has to get finance. So that's going to go into the repo market. It's gotta get finance, and it's going to be a bit more expensive to get that finance, and you could see prepo rates rise. So we're talking about a little bit of instability in the funding markets, potentially. You'll end I want to wrap up with you quickly. Here you talked about how this could really impact the consumer. But at this point in time can the consumer handle it, given the consumer. And the us economy are the strongest of the world. If any time this were to happen is now the best time because we can handle it. Sure. And I just want to point out that we're not going to see any impact on actually data maybe for a couple of months, so maybe several months because the terrorists were designed this way that then I'm going to take impact right away. So it will probably take weeks until those goods that was shipped from China will reach our borders. And we might see the impact of few months after that you'll inertia let you senior US economists for Bloomberg economics and Alexander bond reporter, both giving us very timely updates on how the economic and the bond markets are looking at the latest and greatest with trade and tariffs coming up. We're going to take a deeper dive into with a couple of our experts round that name and that phenomenon phenomenon I'm Jason Kelly in LA tiller. Rex back in New York. Let's go to to the New.

China fed US Alex Harris Bloomberg Jason Kelly reporter Xi Jinping Europe EU Konami Drome Powell president Yele Alexander bond New York Rex LA tiller fifty percent
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

08:34 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"In our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, like everyone in New York very much missing us. I know we'll be back before too long guys. Nobody dry your dry your eyes, Alex, especially you Karl. We know we feel Carl sitting and Carol C. So, yeah, we're mixing just got real this agenda retraining places securities trading places. All right. So let's talk a little Stephen Moore that obviously is far and away the big story. Among folks, watching the fed world the economics world today car. What do you make of it? Well, there was a lot of questionable commentary that kind of loaded the made it a very loaded fed pick. So, you know, President Trump is clearly trying to go in a different direction with the fed nominees and really kinda go outside of the conventional realm. Both of his picks Herman Cain and Stephen Moore fell through. But that doesn't mean that we won't see more kind of contrarians nominated for these positions. I think he knows he can't go to outside of the lane going forward. But that does not mean we're going to see some group thinkers nominated to fill these vacancies. And of course, the news is that of Stephen Moore that was one of President Trump's pick for the Federal Reserve Board of governors is pulling out of consideration for that job. We caught up with him Bloomberg television caught up with him today in an interview. Here's what Stephen Moore had to say, I I would probably be in favor of repealing that rate hike, which was what I think twenty five basis points. I I'm not so sure I agree with the White House that we should cut rates by in untitled percentage point. I mean, I don't I just don't see the case for that right now. All right. So Stephen Moore today to interview on Bloomberg television. I mean or before he. He pulled out. Yeah. So I mean, you know, it's funny. Our producer Paul Brennan kind of saying, you know, you do wonder this guy not want the job. And that's why he said something like that Karl I think that it was becoming very clear to him that he was becoming radioactive as a choice. And so it was kind of you know, agreement you know, he said if he became radioactive he would withdraw. He didn't want to cost a Senate seat by continuing with his candidacy. So I think maybe a mutual agreement between both him in the White House. But I mean that is very strong medicine that the president is suggesting the fed follow in term Ray. Now, not only the rate cut shore where in a mature cycle. So, you know, moving rates won't have disastrous economic consequences, although that will further stimulate things like auto sales and housing which you may need to stimulate in the next economic cycle. So there is a case. Be made at this stage of the game to keep the powder. Dry. And when you're cutting rates by a full percentage point, you're not keeping the powder. Dry. More. Disturbing is to go back into QE, right? The the economy does not need quantitative easing at this point in time. We don't know fully how that tool works or what the upside limits are the fed can't expand its balance sheet indefinitely, and if we're using QE now than when a recession does eventually come. We're going to need a lot more QE, and we could go dangerously close to the limits of what the fed could administer. And we don't have a concept of what that upside limit is will know when we get there. And when we get there, it won't be pretty so Alex come on in here because the market what is it saying alternately about what the fed said, and what may happen next as especially as we sort of digest what we heard from chair Paul yesterday. Okay. Well, first of all in terms of what chair Powell's said yesterday. What we're seeing today is a lot of those bats that traders were making the front end about rate cuts. Those are getting pushed out so you're seeing you're seeing a bit of a rinse out of some of those who thought that would be you know, the ever be cutting rates by the end of the year. So those are getting pushed out bit in terms of what Karla Sahin about QE. Let's not forget that at some point. Once the fed has found that level reserves that it's comfortable with that. It's going to do what it can to keep that level steady. But currency's going to continue to grow liabilities are going to continue to grow and the fed has to come back in and start buying treasuries. Again that in my book. Yes, in might not be, you know, considered stimulus. But and we're not at the lower bound that's still QE you're still coming in to buy treasuries and Liz McCormick. And I are working on a story very much about this issue, which is at what point is the fed actually. Have to come back in and start buying treasuries. And a lot of people are saying that's twenty twenty issue. But there's a very big risk that they could end the balance sheet on wind on the treasury side in September and October. They're buying treasuries. Because there's a lot of issues now that are going to stress the front end they're going to stress the fed funds rate, it it's really going to test the funding markets, and they might have to be coming in here in order to stabilize it could be treasuries by the end of the year curl UC that well, there's an important distinction here. Because absolutely the economy grows fed balance sheet is going to have to grow with the fed has made that that clear, and that's going to be mean, adding more assets presumably treasury, so what my colleague is describing here. Could be called QE the fed and treasury will not call that QE. Even though I would tend to agree that if you're buying assets that's quantitative easing. So we'll call it QE. The fed will say absolutely not that it's not QE. All right. Well, thank you both so much Alex Harris reporter for Bloomberg News Corp chief US, economists skews me for Bloomberg. I can't even say 'cause you're sitting carols jerem, so distract trading. Places security. So we should also mention that Bloomberg's Mike is going to be sitting down with Cleveland fed president Loretta Mestre tomorrow from the Hoover institute policy conference. We're gonna carry that live at three PM Wall Street time on Bloomberg radio and television, so relevant. 'cause it'll be interesting to say, especially when you just hear the debate we got from Alex and from Carl it'll be interesting to see what she has to say about some of that. And also coming off the jobs report and kind of where we are coming up the fed meeting. You know, you just saw the market reaction to that meeting. I it was dovish than not so much. So I think we need some clarification, and we'll get that from that conversation. All right first. Now, let's go to moon. He's got some world and national news kitchen, Carol. Thank you president Donald Trump's selection for the federal. Reserve Board of governors even more abruptly pulled out of consideration for the job today. President Trump's announcement on Twitter came just hours after Moore had insisted the Bloomberg news that he was all in for the central Bank position. I sure am. And in fact, this is going to be probably three month process. So a lot you know, what the situation today, I think is going to be a lot different three months from now. When I go before the Senate and the banking committee in the full Senate. So I'm not too concerned about this Moore, then cited unrelenting attacks on his character that he said, we're untenable it's not clear what happened to make him change his mind between the interview and the letter to President Trump Trump said in his tweet that he is asked Moore to work with him toward future economic growth in our country. Vice President Mike Pence put his focus on recent attacks on worshipers today as the White House hosted a national day of prayer service in the rose garden. No one should ever fear for their safety in a house of. Worship in America or anywhere in the world. Spoke of the power of prayer to get through difficult times. President Trump at it something else to the list. People say, how do you get through that whole stuff that you go through those witch hunts and everything else, and you know, what we do like, we just do it. Right. We think about God. Among those in attendance, rather us real Goldstein who spoke about the deadly shooting at his San Diego area synagogue last weekend. The way we act darkness is with light. It was that moment admitted decision. No.

fed President Trump Trump Stephen Moore Bloomberg president Alex Harris White House Bloomberg interactive brokers Senate Karl Carol C. Paul Brennan Herman Cain Mike Pence Carl New York Vice President Bloomberg News Corp treasury
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:44 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Carolmassar Jason Kelly and joining the table here in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Alex Harris bond reporter up Bloomberg news along with Carl Riccadonna our chief economist Bloomberg economics both of them in studio. So Alex anything of the note for it's about how they feel Carol. That sound. It was really pretty quiet day. I think risk. Okay. We're done. Risk on in the beginning earnings, which AP Morgan Wells Fargo, really drove the trade today. I however, there was actually something interesting that came out we got a look at the dealer refunding survey that comes out before the quarterly refunding announcement from the treasury, right? And they did they ask dealers for their feedback on the path of the Fed's balance sheet normalization, and they really wanted to know. Okay. What exact date like month year? Do you think is going to have to start buying treasuries again because this is important for the treasury daily now figure out and juggle their issuance pattern and figure do they have room to cut supply a little bit? Now that like the tapers going to be slowing down in the next six months. These are important questions. And then you also have to remember like their people predicting that issuance is gonna have to increase in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one just because of the deficits. So you know, is there time for the treasury to cut supply in the short run before. We have to start raising it again. That's what they're looking at. I think everybody looked really serious album. Deficit's carol. You would you talk about people juggling their issuance patterns get serious. Oh my goodness. The treasury. Saw.

treasury Bloomberg interactive brokers Alex Harris Bloomberg Carol Morgan Wells Fargo Jason Kelly chief economist Carl Riccadonna Fed reporter six months
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:47 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"We love this segment on a Friday, Alex Harris bomb reporter at Bloomberg news inner Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, TIMMY, he economist at Bloomberg economics, and they've been just having a good old time here with my co host on this Friday, Vince, Cigna rela so all right off you go girl. All right. What's going on in the bottom because there was alleged speaker speaker? So I'm gonna kinda give the highlights here. And you know, I'm not so trying to make, you know, get steamed the Kamata Vincent's ears here. He's pretty just tell. So I've heard there is some crazy that they're from those trading days the limitations as long past good memories around. Absolutely. I think one of the first interesting pieces was Richard Clarita. Vice-chairman spoke in a keynote today and one of the things he said, he's Clara or Clarita, Clara Clarita. Well, they cleared any as we have a new name for him because he was talking about yield Kirk control as being part, you know, considered as part of the Fed's operating framework. So we have now given him the nickname Richard club Roda, like Mr. Kuroda Japan because you know, and what Vincent I were talking about earlier is oh my gosh. It hasn't worked for the Japanese. So why would you think it's going to work in the US maddening mccur flattened a little bit? But then the big centerpiece. I think of the day was James Bullard from out of Saint Louis. Patrick Harker Philly, and then governor Randy quarrels were how or on a panel talking about the balance sheet and governor corals was making some comments about looking at making the Fed's treasury portfolio moving to a shorter duration. So, you know, as some people have been talking about that would be reinvesting in the shorter end of the treasury curve. So we're talking T-Bills and shorter dated treasury notes that two years and three years steeton. Yeah. It's a reverse twist. They're going to have to take it out of the bellied occur and bringing it to the shore. Well, then they need the reverse twist because how are they going to be able to? I should've been doing it for a long time. China silly. So they need they want those securities and their quarrels made a comment, you know, if we need to go to an operation twist again, we want to have the resources to do. So and now you've seen the curve steepening out a little bit here. So that's what we're working with. And then you had some comments earlier this morning from Mary Daly out of San Francisco, and John Williams insisting that the Phillips curve isn't dad, which I felt like I was watching the Monty python dead parrot sketch. Yeah. I see I blame me he defrauded was it. The families blame wasn't the fed. He left the fed. Kind of lunatic. Did you do? I just like to say thank you for keeping the Jason Kelly viable live here. He likes to polka. Amir. I feel really wonder why.

Fed Kamata Vincent Richard Clarita Bloomberg Bloomberg interactive brokers Bloomberg economics US treasury Alex Harris Cigna governor Randy quarrels Clara Clarita TIMMY Patrick Harker Philly Vince reporter James Bullard John Williams Jason Kelly Mary Daly
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:32 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"ETF. Let's talk fixed income Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg news is in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Alex so nice to see you. What are some talk about a crazy busy week free? But what are you looking at the markets today today, thankfully was a little bit calmer. You said it was boring. We're a little more come on. Let's just be relative to what was happening yesterday with the FOMC minutes. And there was a lot packed today. A little bit calmer was seen a backup and yields however, still range-bound because again, there's all this uncertainty floating around. So I think really today's move was driven more by the investment grade corporate bond calendar. You know yesterday you had alive lily come in with a with a big bond issue. Tens and out the curve and their funding an deal Tae, Boston scientific four point three billion. They were across the curves. Five cross the curve excuse me, five years to thirty years or bond market alive and kicking alive and kicking as long as there's day where you're not getting a whole lot of fedspeak and things are relatively calm. And there's not a lot of volatility. I think they can come in. And that's what's pushing the market a little bit. You have the five thirty s curve is steeper today. It's round fifty three basis points. So in on the new issue market what's the reception in there? And what's liquidity in the marketplace? Mean you're still getting people taking down these deals in clearly they're coming and they can come with four point five billion yesterday from Lilian then Boston scientific and follow up with another four point three reception is still good and as long as follow Tila ty- remains somewhat subdued and now the feds on hold. I think it just gives you a bit of an opening and the long end is an attractive place. For issue. Just because investors want that yields. So they're gonna pick up what they can get. So, but again, you know, ten year thirty year treasury yields still rangebound, we have trade uncertainty. We have Brexit uncertainty. We have all these issues on the table that have yet to be resolved. And until we get a resolution. A can't see the treasury yields breaking out one way or another. And so it continues I feel like we've been talking about these big macro issues for a while. Speaking of big macro issues. Let's bring in Philippi. Hernandez Latin America economist Bloomberg economics. Also in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio watching what's going on in. Brazil venezuela. But I said Brazil. Brazelle. That's a better choice. Yeah. Exactly. But thinking about Venezuela a lot. But anyway, tells what's going on in Brazil. Well markets have been recently over the last couple of weeks increasingly focused on the debate of the pension reform, which president was finally submitted forty-one thousand congress earlier this story at the end of last week. Now the draft that was submitted for debating, congress is includes all of the main points that the market was suspecting to look at it, and this is key because this has been this piece of legislation and expectations for the pension reform to be approved. And eventually implemented is has been an important driver for the strong performance of Brazilian assets. In the last well since the election of president scenario key points in the reform changing the age for retirement benefits, and the contributions that have to be made by both in the private and in the public sector. Of course, a lot of opposition expected to come from union. So for public sector, employees like teachers and. The politicians legislators between them. Interestingly enough, there's no changes to the pension regime for the military and the armed forces in Brazil, this according to a government going to be submitted in a separate and different Bill. But this is interesting during the. The president Botswana does a story as as as part of the military right now, of course. In there because I feel like listening to this just as a reminder and just like you just said Alex about there's just these big macro stories kind of hanging over various nations, and until we get some kind of resolution or clarity. We're going to kind of see I feel like investors globally. Just kind of Mark time a little bit. I think it's been a major issue certainly in the December swoon in the marketplace. It was just one of the dominoes kind of piling up concerns about China. The concerns about Brexit. Maybe some certain Latin America issues with Venezuela. And it looks like this year kind of moving a little bit towards resolution not there yet but moving towards resolution that seems to be enough for the market. Well, what kind of clarity? Will we get? Once we get. Let's assume we get some clarity on some of these trade issues and sell on you need. What does he need clarity on Mark? Oh, you need clarity on the China trade issues because what you're hoping for is a deal, and then these terrorists dissipate, the tariffs are eliminated, you know, hopefully that unlocks the growth that we're seeing in the US. I mean, if you look at the earnings, it's like, the number of companies that are saying or slashing expectations are mentioning the terrorists really Wayne on growth is is concerning. So I think you unlock that think you unlock the fed is well, I think they feel like they have a little bit more room to move because I think they're looking for ways in which they can raise rates, and I don't think they can right now as long as we're sort of mired in all these these trade issues, and I think the European Union trade issues with the US or even bigger deal. That's an important one. We talked about them over the summer and said, oh, this is knocking everyone was so excited in the equity markets were rally because like in theory, there was a deal. But we said just wait like people are gonna remember that there's no deal in place in this is going to be a problem. And I think it is. But the trade issues, I think are really the thing that will unlock a bit of a bit more growth so fully so for this pension reform in Brazil, obviously, Brazil, the largest economy in Latin America, how important is it for the economy. There's just get. A sense of clarity. Or is this going to be an impetus for future further growth? I'd see important for two main reasons. So the first one is the pension the deficit in the pension system in Brazil is important part of the concerns about the medium and longterm fiscal sustainability of accounts in Brazil, so approval of this reform, especially if it's not a watered down version from what was initially submitted by the government would be an important step towards the consolidation of fiscal accounts in Brazil, and of course, if the line with that if the reforms indeed approved, it would definitely help to consolidate the positive sentiment around the administration of President Bush scenario, which has been an important part or driver behind the positive performance of local assets, of course, going back to your point about. When are we going to get clarity about what will happen, right? ABC's suspect to be a very long debate this constitutional amendment, and according to two. A local analyst in insult Pablo. Probably this will not be approved until the end of this year. So there will be a lot of possibility talking about this all year. Essentially coming back. All right, Philippi. Hernandez Latin America economists at Bloomberg economics. Thank you, Alex Harris. Thank you so much. Bon reporter, Bloomberg news both of them in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio just want to point out. It got stocks pretty much just coming off their lows of the session. We did take another leg down. And you know, some more worried about what the global outlook is for growth. Paul, you know, yet Europe and US economic data coming in below expectations. And that's certainly weighing on investors. You are listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Carol Massar, along with pulse Sweeney. Let's get back.

Brazil Bloomberg interactive brokers Alex Harris president Bloomberg Philippi Boston scientific US Bloomberg BusinessWeek Hernandez China Venezuela Bloomberg economics Latin America reporter FOMC Mark treasury European Union
Fixed Income: Definition, Types, How It Affects Economy

Bloomberg Businessweek

01:59 min | 2 years ago

Fixed Income: Definition, Types, How It Affects Economy

"Let's talk fixed income Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg news is in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Alex so nice to see you. What are some talk about a crazy busy week free? But what are you looking at the markets today today, thankfully was a little bit calmer. You said it was boring. We're a little more come on. Let's just be relative to what was happening yesterday with the FOMC minutes. And there was a lot packed today. A little bit calmer was seen a backup and yields however, still range-bound because again, there's all this uncertainty floating around. So I think really today's move was driven more by the investment grade corporate bond calendar. You know yesterday you had alive lily come in with a with a big bond issue. Tens and out the curve and their funding an deal Tae, Boston scientific four point three billion. They were across the curves. Five cross the curve excuse me, five years to thirty years or bond market alive and kicking alive and kicking as long as there's day where you're not getting a whole lot of fedspeak and things are relatively calm. And there's not a lot of volatility. I think they can come in. And that's what's pushing the market a little bit. You have the five thirty s curve is steeper today. It's round fifty three basis points. So in on the new issue market what's the reception in there? And what's liquidity in the marketplace? Mean you're still getting people taking down these deals in clearly they're coming and they can come with four point five billion yesterday from Lilian then Boston scientific and follow up with another four point three reception is still good and as long as follow Tila ty- remains somewhat subdued and now the feds on hold. I think it just gives you a bit of an opening and the long end is an attractive place. For issue. Just because investors want that yields. So they're gonna pick up what they can get. So, but again, you know, ten year thirty year treasury yields still rangebound, we have trade uncertainty. We have Brexit uncertainty. We have all these issues on the table that have yet to be resolved. And until we get a resolution. A can't see the treasury yields breaking out one way or

Boston Scientific Alex Harris Bloomberg Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Treasury Fomc Reporter Tila Ty Lilian Thirty Years Thirty Year Five Years Ten Year
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:55 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Alright, Alex Harris, so what's happening out there. And what are the things I wanna make sure we talk about is. And this has come up in a few conversations with you. The government shutdown has got to be starting to play through here. Right. Yeah. And I think you're one of the things we are starting to look at the beginning of January is the IRS hasn't really fully staffed how are they going to pay refunds? And then they came out. We're looking at a story on us. And then literally that same afternoon the the government came out and said, oh, no, we're gonna pay refunds problem. No one wants to show up for work because no one can afford to get to work. So now if refunds are delayed this. Actually messes with the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on March one Hausa because what happens then is treasury was hoping for the refund period to use that to pay down its cash balance. So part of the rules now with this debt ceiling reinstatement is treasury has this huge cash. Offer the rule state that when the suspension ends the cash balance has to be brought down to the level where it was when it was suspended. So last year debts got racist got suspended in February twenty eighteen cash. Balance was at two hundred billion currently the cash balances three hundred eighty five billions of big difference system. Basic, man. So we gotta get to two hundred billion by March one, right? So what treasury was hoping to do was say. All right tax season's going to open will use the refunds to hit that balance, and we don't have to touch the treasury bills supply. We won't have to make cuts. You know, we can continue issuing the same amount of treasury bills and still make sure like we're covered. We're adequately. However, if refunds are not getting paid out that cash balance is going to remain large. So therefore, they got to do something to get that balance down. They're going to have to start cutting the bills supply, which is funny because I can't keep the cash balance because this is the rule on the debt ceiling suspension that they have to they have to get it back to two hundred billion by March one would stop selling T-Bills, they won't stop selling them, they'd cut them. But it's funny because they sold more that cash balance with which is funny because they actually this week just increase the size of the treasury Bill auctions. And so we're selling treasury selling four and eight week bells tomorrow, Jason stay with me. I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm interested in this. So they're selling foreign league bills tomorrow. Those are both five billion dollars larger than last week sales and are actually going to start raising new cash, but we need these sales to fund the government, right? Yeah. But we don't need the money if they can't pay refunds so now instead of. Those increases are going to have to come back down. They're going to have to start cutting that supply. Okay. Okay. I think there's some people like crash up getting a Big Mac or something to help me understand this. But so what what are the what I don't know. I just went random. What are the implications though, you're gonna see downward pressure on funding rates? So like repo rate should get a little bit tighter. Those should drive. You should see the secured overnight financing Ray or Sofer's we call it that should come down as well. You're starting to see a bit of rich in those front end treasury bills right now because people are starting to plays around the yield curve. It does really with the front end. So you're starting to get a little bit of a rally there. Because now everyone's going way we could have less supply when everyone is expecting more back to Joe Weisenthal playing country songs. Well, alex. What can what I what I hear? You saying is this is a pretty to say, the least unintended consequence of the government shutdown starting to have an impact it is. And you know, what ridiculous impact because they treasury is also trying to just continue and move forward. Like, everything is fine. And at some point they can enjoy this like something's going to have to give here. All right. So we're going to switch gears a little bit and bring in Philippi. Hernandez. He's been very patient in our studio Latin America economist, Bloomberg economics, so talk to us a little bit about Brazil, and what's going on. And what Mr. Bolsonaro is saying over in Davos. Yup. Both both on a personal. And minister of finance the swearing in our in Davos, and after what was a bit of a disappointing speech by what sonar earlier this week statements, by minister goes have made more made up for the for the difference. Here has been very vocal about very aggressive privatization plans that the government wants to implement putting a push for this year. He's talking about about twenty billion dollars worth of revenue from privatizations. He says that this alone would be enough to close the fiscal deficit in one thousand nine hundred eighteen of course, heels acknowledges that this is extraordinarily revenues and that reforms in the enter still necessary to close the gap the fiscal gap on a permanent basis. Said quite bullish about the outlook for the pen for the pension reform for the approval on debate. And the of the pension reform in congress in Brazil as well, but these actually sends again, some mixed signals between what President Bush sonar is saying and what investors are hearing for ministry Geddes bit more cautious tone or less optimistic outlook when they hear from Botswana and the very bullish bury a bright outlook for Brazil. When when it's ministered goes the one that each stocking. And in the end. Well, markets are buying to story or what what they're hearing from from Gary space based on what we have seen in terms of the currency interest rates outlook and bond prices equities, but some analysts are also highlighting this mixed signals. And the fact that the point some of them believe that there will be a reality check. Because when you think about the the level of political support for the privatization plan and their pension reform. It does seem much weaker than what minister straight. You're say. I was gonna say speaking of reality check can mean president Bolsonaro said to our own John Michael Twitter editor in chief that basically if this doesn't happen the way that he expects it should Brazil becomes the next Venezuela. That is not a favorable comparison, not at all when you read the headlines about Venezuela now where the opposition it's getting louder and getting more international support than investors are trying to get a. A bit more Optima sales in this story that we've got on the Bloomberg that just reminds everybody that here he is on his first overseas trip as president. And you've got Brazilian media reports an allegations of financial irregularities involving his oldest son. And of course, he spin on this anti-corruption agenda. I'm just saying we don't know whether this is true or what have you? But it doesn't help make case definitely. Club or evidence of diesel brother, still mother, moderate or limited political for his agenda. Mazing fully bay Hernandez. Great Steph Latin America, economists for Bloomberg economics said Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg keeping it real in the bond market, then diagram or something that we need. I all I I think she was punking meal a little bit by working so far into the conversation. I know I heard it too. And I'm like what he'll lose them. You're gonna lose them, folks. Thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Let's get back to the national news headlines back to you. Bob moon in our eleven three newsroom. Hi, Bob Carroll. Jason. Thank you, President Trump signal to the house speaker earlier today was essentially I'm coming for the state of the union address next Tuesday. Whether you like it or not Nancy Pelosi fire back this afternoon, telling Trump, oh, no, you're not if you said in a letter to the president that her chamber will not consider a resolution authorizing the plan speech until the government has been reopened reporters. Asked about that. In the Oval Office a short time ago. It's really.

treasury Alex Harris president Brazil Bloomberg economics Bloomberg government Jason Mr. Bolsonaro Davos IRS Philippi Nancy Pelosi President Bush Venezuela Oval Office Bob Carroll Hernandez
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:57 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Just good night. More to the recession. Larry any final thoughts from you. Alex Harris, anything we need to be looking out for the rest of the week. We have Bill auction so but again, we also data's delayed. Hate to lose. You're gonna lose. Had me with Bank earning. Stay auctions. And it's like a hand the bad news is there's no doubt next week. Existing home sales. You take it where you can get it. Yeah. Exactly. And you know, what if bills where it's going to be? That's I'm gonna take. Thank God for the CEO's right now that we're getting some inkling of what's going on in the right, right, right? It won't be until consumer confidence and the January jobs report, which are the following week where we started to get some data mind, you the fed goes into blackout period next week as well. So it's going to be Ereli, quiet. The fed sounded a bunch of parrots everyone's vis reiterated patients were joking about making a drinking game desk. Wait their patient. Now, the patient patient patient. Independent possibly say. At this point. They've already made it clear their patient. We get it. Right. We're watching. We're watching every right? Yes. Chevy waiting for data Mason's. It's so good to have you back. Welcome back. Carl Carl Riccadonna has economists here at Bloomberg economics and Alex Harris born reporter for Bloomberg. Thank you Bill. All right. You are listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek Carol Massar along Jason Kelly coming up where you're going to talk about an interesting new index that we've developed here at Bloomberg. And I think it really plays into that whole impact investing world. So stick around for that let me time let's get to your top. Well, the national news tears about Carol. Thank you Republican Senator Lindsey Graham says President Trump's announcement that he would immediately. Start withdrawing troops from Syria. Could have been a reason the Islamic state launched an attack that killed people in Syria, including u s servicemembers on routine patrol today. Graham says it also leaves allies concerned about US commitments. My concern by the statements made that President Trump is it you'd set in motion enthusiasm by the enemy were fighting. You make people were trying to help wonder about us. And as they get bolder people were trying to help we're going to get more uncertain. At least sixteen people were killed in Syria. The president declared three weeks ago, the US had defeated the Islamic state. Today's attack was in a town that the coalition supposedly liberated from ISIS in two thousand sixteen British Prime Minister Theresa may survived. The no confidence vote in parliament today to remain in office, but saw more of her power away. As she battled to keep Brexit on track after lawmakers, demolished or European Union divorced deal may won a narrow victory. Three hundred twenty five votes to three hundred six today on an opposition motion seeking to topple her government and trigger an election opposition labor leader. Jeremy Corbyn had called on her to resign. The case, Mr Speaker..

Alex Harris Bloomberg Syria President Trump US Senator Lindsey Graham Carol Massar Bill Bloomberg economics fed Jeremy Corbyn Theresa Carl Carl Riccadonna Larry Jason Kelly president ISIS Chevy CEO Mr Speaker
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

05:55 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"What is wrong? When you've lost lost too much for me to say. Every afternoon we've had getting here. Twenty seconds. Why I care about that? Because this is supposed to be the benchmark bit's gonna replace librar- treasury comes out and said, we're going to start issuing you're worth thinking about issuing debt tied to this. It lands another air credibility and legitimizes. The great people are like, well, hey, if treasuries issuing to this like this might be okay for us. So we might see some more corporates coming in issuing to scupper keeps the futures market develop more. So that's important to. Yes. It's just everything's been hitting it. He's he's buying a skin right now. He's got he's jumped up to the next rank and learning how to do orange Justice. You later legislate your to dinner last night. I believe dinner speech by fed reserve vice-chairman, Richard wine. Okay. Redder white. Eye. So for. The anyway, go ahead. Think you know, like everybody else on the fed rich Clarita, basically reconfirmed and read to read it the word patience for the hundreds. I guess get your marching orders. Because here's what we keep saying and say stations. Yeah. But the worst some interesting takeaways, though, I think one of the most interesting things that I learned last night was about inflation expectations. And I was very much interested in what he has to say about it because work based inflation expectations have declined recently. And I wanted to to kind of see why that is happening in the feds view, and he said that this is not because inflation expectations are fully needs because inflation compensation. Due to oil price decline and the risk premium has declined. But this doesn't have anything to do with inflation expectations per see? So they still stable at around two percent. That is not talking deflationary talking deflation, the fit still views inflation expectations is being stable even though the little bit low. But that's an important takeaway 'cause we didn't get it and the data didn't do anything to this morning, actually, again confirmed that the piece of cornflakes is at a steady pace Korn flation was zero point two percent two point two on a year-over-year basis despite any declines in the headline which are driven by will price inflation question. We studying listening to you. I listen to Joe s you know, I it's showing what thank you very impressive. Did you know kids average allowance rose faster than salaries and twenty eight there's a story in the New York Post? That crazy should ask for allowance. I know. So I think you'll lane is. For allow forever. It's like, I was you know, I don't know how many years out of college and some gas money is kind of like. Yeah. Okay. So where do we go next week because we start to get corporate earnings? So I do wonder about all the fedspeak. Does it kind of fade to the background because I do feel like a little bit of an overload here. No, I think actually one was that. No. Gonna feed next. Okay. I think one of the most interesting speeches from the fed will be from esta George L Kansas City fed president. She hasn't spoken in a while. And the last time she spoke she was talking about the oil and gas sectors, one of the brightest spots in the Konami and financial conditions being supportive over the last time. Sometime in Tober. Okay. So since then, obviously a lot of things have changed. And it will be interesting to see if she she's a very resolute hawk on the committee joins the others on their firm seen preaching patients, essentially, so yeah. Patients patients, Alex Harris stations is going to be your new drinking. Forget did it game on the desk. Yesterday's how many times did Powell say patient, honestly, there's no data's being delayed now because of the shutdown and this is a bit of a problem. It gets to a point where three weeks in folks. This is a problem. But here's the thing. Now with you know, the fed just reiterating patients data dependence doesn't matter. No, it doesn't it doesn't matter. Just another form of data dependence. I know. But now, it's like who cares if there's no data because the fence is going to be patient anyways. So what do you need data for it? Can I ask you something? Once the data starts coming back out to they all of a sudden, like give us a day lose to get us up to date, or how does it work because it also affects data collection. So retail sales report, for example is scheduled to be released on a Wednesday. But even if the reopened the government all of a sudden over the weekend, the report will be delayed anyway, because they will have they will lead time to collect the data. I could just tell you have a young son diva the way, she just. No, no. I don't remember that before your son was born just say right to the point guys have a great weekend. Really fun chat. Alex Harrison, correspond reporter at Bloomberg news inner Bloomberg directive broker studio along with Elena, shall I give a senior US economist at Bloomberg economics. No. I like that. I'd like it to. I mean, listen, we're at a time when you know, things need to get done, and we've been listening as you looted to to a lot of fed speakers. And it feels like the only way that will get any real news from the fed speakers is is if they say something different from what this whole parade has said over the last week or so right now that being on the same page and a certain message is really important right now. Absolutely. All right. Let's get a check of world and national news that we get about moon in.

fed Bloomberg New York Post Alex Harris Konami Bloomberg economics US vice-chairman Tober Korn rich Clarita Alex Harrison Joe s Richard wine Powell Elena George L Kansas City
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Alex Harris von reporter at Bloomberg news, both of them in our Bloomberg interactive brokers students, let's kick it off with you you walk and we're like how's it going? You're like, oh my God. Like every afternoon is nuts every afternoon was that not an exact, quote, it's pretty close. Eight o'clock every afternoon this week. We've just kind of been hitting the was repeatedly getting it in the face with a pie every day this week sleeping surprised what? Well, so on Monday. We started looking into this connection between what happens if refund season is delayed for for the taxes, which is a problem because the debt ceiling is going to be reinstated. And what we thought we said we're going to get a refund. You don't know though. There's there's no guaranteed just goes the White House says something's going to happen. Treasuries gonna actually have the ability to start paying these out. So there's a delay in refunds. It's sorta complicates the way in which treasury is going to pay down their cash balance head of the Dow delaying everybody know, and you have you're going to potentially see some distortions in treasury bills supply heading into that into that reinstatement of the debt ceiling so that was expected to be pretty calm now everything the shutdown. So is really going to start to weigh in. Then you know, you have the fedspeak all week, and that's kind of a treasury came out this afternoon with their pre refunding survey, and that says they're looking into whether or not it's feasible to issue floating rate notes tied to the Sofer benchmark which is. Like, I'm adding can start applying for. Orange. To play for what the heck does that mean? So what this new later we haven't forgotten about your idea what full Friday afternoon..

treasury Bloomberg interactive brokers Bloomberg Alex Harris reporter White House Dow