18 Burst results for "Alex Harris"

"alex harris" Discussed on Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

02:56 min | Last month

"alex harris" Discussed on Skeptiko - Science at the Tipping Point

"Spirituality with leading researchers, thinkers and their critics? I'm your host, Alex Harris, and today we welcomed William Ramsay to skeptical. William is an attorney researcher author filmmaker. And Creator of William. Ramsay. Investigates. which is really quite an amazing impressive body of investigative journalism and interviews at listen to so many of them I think I I came across William on Opperman report and he's done a ton on there but it's just incredible body work and it's really really relevant to the stuff that I wanna talk about and that's why I reached out to William and he was nice enough to kind of come on and talk about some stuff. It's such a great fit for some of the stuff I've been looking into a some of the books we should mention a pulled mop abomination, devil worship, and deception in the West Memphis three. You guys have heard me mention West Memphis three and sometimes I. Say like Inside Baseball and I know there's a lot of people that. Don't totally get that. I. Mean. The get it kind of on A. PLACEHOLDER meam level but. Williams really gonNA walk us through that because he's done some amazing research on that, and then there's children are the beast Alastair Crawley's shadow over humanity really interesting book in also I should mention of Emil movie that you need get. We'll show that just a minute and then finally prophet of evil. Alister Crowley nine eleven and the New World Order so William. Just pretty amazing stuff there. It's great to have you on. Thanks so much for joining me. Right thank you very glad to be here. So think right off the bat a lot of people are super intrigued hooked into this. Attorney researcher. Writing Books on curly in West Memphis three and not your traditional kind of True crime stuff I mean that's not it's not at all your thanks. So tell us a little bit about how you came to do what you do. William Ramsay investigates well, I was always kind of a person who is willing to research things that were not covered by the corporate media. I went to law school in DC and worked there from ninety five to ninety eight and saas very remarkable things at briefly worked on the. What they call the suicide of Vince Foster, which is really the murder of Vince Foster. He was murdered and dumped in a park foresee park. Just we can't just leave that hanging for people who don't know how. Quick quick sketch that case what how significant is what it's about and why it's not Zeus..

William Ramsay Memphis Vince Foster William Alex Harris Alister Crowley Baseball Alastair Crawley murder Emil Attorney researcher
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:08 min | 10 months ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"On Bloomberg television and Bloomberg radio so we're going to the market so we are kind of bouncing around a little bit here a little bit higher on the S. and P. the Dow nasdaq though remain just a little bit lower the higher we should point out volumes are exceedingly low as they typically tend to be sandwiched around a a major holiday like Christmas yeah we do want to talk a bit about the business week economic situation situation I make it sound so formal and serious let's bring in our roundtable in Bloomberg news bond reporter Alex Harris is with us along with bluebird economic senior U. S. economist you'll initially to via a you lean I do want to start with you there was no economic news today right not today but next week will the date the wheels slowly start to pickup right so we are going to get I is a manufacturing and that's an important one that's an important one and I think could potentially be a good market moving events so this will basically already should reflect any impact from the tree trolls you know that we were witnessing back in December so be a strong numbers what you're saying I think we could see the number of going back above us fifty break even level with the polls there or not it's a big question but at least for December we could see a pop in in the index so I was Alex obviously a big narrative this year has been of what we got out of the fed this year right now they seem to be sort of playing around on the short end of the curve she's keep the repo market in Jack a couple days away from the end of the end of the year anything to worry about we got lots a refill operations coming in the next couple of days they're just announcing the schedule we have three on Monday we have another one on Tuesday just to make sure you know month and is going to year and is going to be as smooth as possible but again it all remains to be seen because you know part of the issue is as the primary dealers don't have the balance sheet to handle this they can't pass it on to the rest of the market so you know there is some expectation that you all are going to see some bombs not necessarily like two percent to ten percent spike they use on September and maybe not what we saw last December when one to six or seven percent but you are the others some volatility that's to be expected and then also I note that on Friday were releasing the F. once we get the FOMC minutes at two o'clock it's a bit of an odd time because of the holiday on a Wednesday but you know those are going to be interesting to see you know what's ahead thinking about going forward what what is the ongoing conversation about some of these issues in the repo market that Sharon Powell has highlighted in his press conference in which he gets an awful lot of questions on in the in the press conference it really has shifted I feel like yeah he definitely especially in December I think because there was really nothing for them to broadcast in terms of any sort of rate cut right or the expectations were you know going forward everything was supposed to be pretty pretty and change you know the questions and shifted to repo and so these are going to be the big things next year for the market I was just talking to someone about this is you what are the you do on the regulatory front one of those early discussions looking like because Powell has said like whatever they do is going to require going through that whole process of that's a commentary it and letting people way in and going back and forth which means that we might not get any changes or any alleviation in there on the regulatory front maybe in some next the end of next year I mean that was how long we're talking here what's what's going to be interesting what is going to be the next hurdle what's going to be a next step for the fish is it going to be a tax season sometime in April because all these changes that it's what you're talking about they're not going to take place until after that I guess yeah I mean and this is the other big thing that we've been hitting on is how are they going on wind as you know these people operations is temporary reserves being added right now so what happens when those come out how are they going on wine from this because again as I mentioned before that is no problem getting into a situation they just can't get themselves out I remind everybody I think we assume that everybody understands what the remark it's all about but it's important to keeping kind of liquidity especially on some of the investment houses your hedge funds your money market funds correct yeah so it's an overnight lending market you know and usually the loans are collateralized by treasury's agency MBS is are sort of the years your big he's on a really short term basis absolutely and so these are the things that you have to be worried about and then you know treasury supply I mean that senses still remain relatively large and we we do have massive deficits right and so you know as grown more needs a finance and there's less for an interest in it like you know you got to figure out what you're doing and and that has a I think that's a great thing might remain I wonder I go back to you know those times and we just had conversation after cut conversation about the growing deficit the government and you had lawmakers on both sides saying this is not a good thing and we've gotten so much away from that yeah time certainly have changed but I mean we keep talking about the fed cited this I mean talk about the physical side of it a little bit more because there is some speculation here that not only ever going to see the treacherous once but that we could see Congress come back into play and actually you know provide some sort of stimulus to the economy I think we're going to continue to see increasing budget deficits what like we had one trillion budget deficit in two thousand nineteen how about two trillion deficit that is quite possible right that is quite possible even even if we we're going to get into a mild downturn and mild recession can actually mean a two trillion deficit reaching eight percent of GDP so that's a possibility because of first of all revenues are slow or they'll lord give it because of the text cuts and jobs act of two thousand seventeen now we have this widening deficits and if we have even less revenue in the down to that means even wider next year is an election year so nobody wants any fiscal austerity next year so that means that there's some appetite for a fiscal stimulus it's just that the package that the administration might have to come up with it has to be so we enticing for Democrats right they can not and they reject and they need to great will rise the scary thing for the repo market is because especially the way the market has changed so much over the last decade or so is that you know dealers are now in the storage business or not in the moving business anymore so the more collateral that comes in because this will be deficit finance you know what that means that that's more that they have to hold on their balance sheets as more that they have to finance so something's going to have to give here either that means the fed's going to full blown Q. we to sort of monetize some of this debt or they got a relaxing these regulatory rules and get the liquidity flowing can keep us all very very busy in twenty twenty no doubt about it so thanks you guys Bloomberg news Bonner Porter Alex Harris of course and bluebird economic senior U. S. economist Yelena chalet to via turning us here in our New York studio quick check on the bond market and we certainly have seen a bit of a quiet market right now you've got that ten year note with the yield of one eighty seven you are listening and watching Bloomberg businessweek Carol Masur along with remain Bostick and this is Bloomberg.

Bloomberg
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:44 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Carolmassar Jason Kelly and joining the table here in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Alex Harris bond reporter up Bloomberg news along with Carl Riccadonna our chief economist Bloomberg economics both of them in studio. So Alex anything of the note for it's about how they feel Carol. That sound. It was really pretty quiet day. I think risk. Okay. We're done. Risk on in the beginning earnings, which AP Morgan Wells Fargo, really drove the trade today. I however, there was actually something interesting that came out we got a look at the dealer refunding survey that comes out before the quarterly refunding announcement from the treasury, right? And they did they ask dealers for their feedback on the path of the Fed's balance sheet normalization, and they really wanted to know. Okay. What exact date like month year? Do you think is going to have to start buying treasuries again because this is important for the treasury daily now figure out and juggle their issuance pattern and figure do they have room to cut supply a little bit? Now that like the tapers going to be slowing down in the next six months. These are important questions. And then you also have to remember like their people predicting that issuance is gonna have to increase in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one just because of the deficits. So you know, is there time for the treasury to cut supply in the short run before. We have to start raising it again. That's what they're looking at. I think everybody looked really serious album. Deficit's carol. You would you talk about people juggling their issuance patterns get serious. Oh my goodness. The treasury. Saw.

treasury Bloomberg interactive brokers Alex Harris Bloomberg Carol Morgan Wells Fargo Jason Kelly chief economist Carl Riccadonna Fed reporter six months
Fixed Income: Definition, Types, How It Affects Economy

Bloomberg Businessweek

01:59 min | 1 year ago

Fixed Income: Definition, Types, How It Affects Economy

"Let's talk fixed income Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg news is in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Alex so nice to see you. What are some talk about a crazy busy week free? But what are you looking at the markets today today, thankfully was a little bit calmer. You said it was boring. We're a little more come on. Let's just be relative to what was happening yesterday with the FOMC minutes. And there was a lot packed today. A little bit calmer was seen a backup and yields however, still range-bound because again, there's all this uncertainty floating around. So I think really today's move was driven more by the investment grade corporate bond calendar. You know yesterday you had alive lily come in with a with a big bond issue. Tens and out the curve and their funding an deal Tae, Boston scientific four point three billion. They were across the curves. Five cross the curve excuse me, five years to thirty years or bond market alive and kicking alive and kicking as long as there's day where you're not getting a whole lot of fedspeak and things are relatively calm. And there's not a lot of volatility. I think they can come in. And that's what's pushing the market a little bit. You have the five thirty s curve is steeper today. It's round fifty three basis points. So in on the new issue market what's the reception in there? And what's liquidity in the marketplace? Mean you're still getting people taking down these deals in clearly they're coming and they can come with four point five billion yesterday from Lilian then Boston scientific and follow up with another four point three reception is still good and as long as follow Tila ty- remains somewhat subdued and now the feds on hold. I think it just gives you a bit of an opening and the long end is an attractive place. For issue. Just because investors want that yields. So they're gonna pick up what they can get. So, but again, you know, ten year thirty year treasury yields still rangebound, we have trade uncertainty. We have Brexit uncertainty. We have all these issues on the table that have yet to be resolved. And until we get a resolution. A can't see the treasury yields breaking out one way or

Boston Scientific Alex Harris Bloomberg Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Treasury Fomc Reporter Tila Ty Lilian Thirty Years Thirty Year Five Years Ten Year
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:55 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Alright, Alex Harris, so what's happening out there. And what are the things I wanna make sure we talk about is. And this has come up in a few conversations with you. The government shutdown has got to be starting to play through here. Right. Yeah. And I think you're one of the things we are starting to look at the beginning of January is the IRS hasn't really fully staffed how are they going to pay refunds? And then they came out. We're looking at a story on us. And then literally that same afternoon the the government came out and said, oh, no, we're gonna pay refunds problem. No one wants to show up for work because no one can afford to get to work. So now if refunds are delayed this. Actually messes with the reinstatement of the debt ceiling on March one Hausa because what happens then is treasury was hoping for the refund period to use that to pay down its cash balance. So part of the rules now with this debt ceiling reinstatement is treasury has this huge cash. Offer the rule state that when the suspension ends the cash balance has to be brought down to the level where it was when it was suspended. So last year debts got racist got suspended in February twenty eighteen cash. Balance was at two hundred billion currently the cash balances three hundred eighty five billions of big difference system. Basic, man. So we gotta get to two hundred billion by March one, right? So what treasury was hoping to do was say. All right tax season's going to open will use the refunds to hit that balance, and we don't have to touch the treasury bills supply. We won't have to make cuts. You know, we can continue issuing the same amount of treasury bills and still make sure like we're covered. We're adequately. However, if refunds are not getting paid out that cash balance is going to remain large. So therefore, they got to do something to get that balance down. They're going to have to start cutting the bills supply, which is funny because I can't keep the cash balance because this is the rule on the debt ceiling suspension that they have to they have to get it back to two hundred billion by March one would stop selling T-Bills, they won't stop selling them, they'd cut them. But it's funny because they sold more that cash balance with which is funny because they actually this week just increase the size of the treasury Bill auctions. And so we're selling treasury selling four and eight week bells tomorrow, Jason stay with me. I'm with you. I'm with you. I'm interested in this. So they're selling foreign league bills tomorrow. Those are both five billion dollars larger than last week sales and are actually going to start raising new cash, but we need these sales to fund the government, right? Yeah. But we don't need the money if they can't pay refunds so now instead of. Those increases are going to have to come back down. They're going to have to start cutting that supply. Okay. Okay. I think there's some people like crash up getting a Big Mac or something to help me understand this. But so what what are the what I don't know. I just went random. What are the implications though, you're gonna see downward pressure on funding rates? So like repo rate should get a little bit tighter. Those should drive. You should see the secured overnight financing Ray or Sofer's we call it that should come down as well. You're starting to see a bit of rich in those front end treasury bills right now because people are starting to plays around the yield curve. It does really with the front end. So you're starting to get a little bit of a rally there. Because now everyone's going way we could have less supply when everyone is expecting more back to Joe Weisenthal playing country songs. Well, alex. What can what I what I hear? You saying is this is a pretty to say, the least unintended consequence of the government shutdown starting to have an impact it is. And you know, what ridiculous impact because they treasury is also trying to just continue and move forward. Like, everything is fine. And at some point they can enjoy this like something's going to have to give here. All right. So we're going to switch gears a little bit and bring in Philippi. Hernandez. He's been very patient in our studio Latin America economist, Bloomberg economics, so talk to us a little bit about Brazil, and what's going on. And what Mr. Bolsonaro is saying over in Davos. Yup. Both both on a personal. And minister of finance the swearing in our in Davos, and after what was a bit of a disappointing speech by what sonar earlier this week statements, by minister goes have made more made up for the for the difference. Here has been very vocal about very aggressive privatization plans that the government wants to implement putting a push for this year. He's talking about about twenty billion dollars worth of revenue from privatizations. He says that this alone would be enough to close the fiscal deficit in one thousand nine hundred eighteen of course, heels acknowledges that this is extraordinarily revenues and that reforms in the enter still necessary to close the gap the fiscal gap on a permanent basis. Said quite bullish about the outlook for the pen for the pension reform for the approval on debate. And the of the pension reform in congress in Brazil as well, but these actually sends again, some mixed signals between what President Bush sonar is saying and what investors are hearing for ministry Geddes bit more cautious tone or less optimistic outlook when they hear from Botswana and the very bullish bury a bright outlook for Brazil. When when it's ministered goes the one that each stocking. And in the end. Well, markets are buying to story or what what they're hearing from from Gary space based on what we have seen in terms of the currency interest rates outlook and bond prices equities, but some analysts are also highlighting this mixed signals. And the fact that the point some of them believe that there will be a reality check. Because when you think about the the level of political support for the privatization plan and their pension reform. It does seem much weaker than what minister straight. You're say. I was gonna say speaking of reality check can mean president Bolsonaro said to our own John Michael Twitter editor in chief that basically if this doesn't happen the way that he expects it should Brazil becomes the next Venezuela. That is not a favorable comparison, not at all when you read the headlines about Venezuela now where the opposition it's getting louder and getting more international support than investors are trying to get a. A bit more Optima sales in this story that we've got on the Bloomberg that just reminds everybody that here he is on his first overseas trip as president. And you've got Brazilian media reports an allegations of financial irregularities involving his oldest son. And of course, he spin on this anti-corruption agenda. I'm just saying we don't know whether this is true or what have you? But it doesn't help make case definitely. Club or evidence of diesel brother, still mother, moderate or limited political for his agenda. Mazing fully bay Hernandez. Great Steph Latin America, economists for Bloomberg economics said Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg keeping it real in the bond market, then diagram or something that we need. I all I I think she was punking meal a little bit by working so far into the conversation. I know I heard it too. And I'm like what he'll lose them. You're gonna lose them, folks. Thank you so much. We really appreciate it. Let's get back to the national news headlines back to you. Bob moon in our eleven three newsroom. Hi, Bob Carroll. Jason. Thank you, President Trump signal to the house speaker earlier today was essentially I'm coming for the state of the union address next Tuesday. Whether you like it or not Nancy Pelosi fire back this afternoon, telling Trump, oh, no, you're not if you said in a letter to the president that her chamber will not consider a resolution authorizing the plan speech until the government has been reopened reporters. Asked about that. In the Oval Office a short time ago. It's really.

treasury Alex Harris president Brazil Bloomberg economics Bloomberg government Jason Mr. Bolsonaro Davos IRS Philippi Nancy Pelosi President Bush Venezuela Oval Office Bob Carroll Hernandez
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 1 year ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Alex Harris von reporter at Bloomberg news, both of them in our Bloomberg interactive brokers students, let's kick it off with you you walk and we're like how's it going? You're like, oh my God. Like every afternoon is nuts every afternoon was that not an exact, quote, it's pretty close. Eight o'clock every afternoon this week. We've just kind of been hitting the was repeatedly getting it in the face with a pie every day this week sleeping surprised what? Well, so on Monday. We started looking into this connection between what happens if refund season is delayed for for the taxes, which is a problem because the debt ceiling is going to be reinstated. And what we thought we said we're going to get a refund. You don't know though. There's there's no guaranteed just goes the White House says something's going to happen. Treasuries gonna actually have the ability to start paying these out. So there's a delay in refunds. It's sorta complicates the way in which treasury is going to pay down their cash balance head of the Dow delaying everybody know, and you have you're going to potentially see some distortions in treasury bills supply heading into that into that reinstatement of the debt ceiling so that was expected to be pretty calm now everything the shutdown. So is really going to start to weigh in. Then you know, you have the fedspeak all week, and that's kind of a treasury came out this afternoon with their pre refunding survey, and that says they're looking into whether or not it's feasible to issue floating rate notes tied to the Sofer benchmark which is. Like, I'm adding can start applying for. Orange. To play for what the heck does that mean? So what this new later we haven't forgotten about your idea what full Friday afternoon..

treasury Bloomberg interactive brokers Bloomberg Alex Harris reporter White House Dow
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:22 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"One eight six six sector ETF in the house in our Bloomberg. Interactive brokers studio, Alex Harris bond reporter at Bloomberg news on a bit of a sugar high. Thanks to eating a ton of this hour patch. I'm just broke something in this together heard somebody knocking moving. Moving stop moving. Timmy hedy. Also economists at Bloomberg economics also here in studio. So Alex, I'm going to start with you. You seem like you're talking pretty normal. And I'm not worried about the sugar high. We gotta get her before crashes withdrawal that is happening right now. That's what you have me. And at this point withdrawal more dangerous. Oh, yeah. So about the bond market. We're going to get into the economic news in a moment with ten because we had a lot. But what are we seeing in terms of the trade? You know what? It's soft today. You know, you're. Yeah. The Wednesday for thanksgiving, and you were only open for part of the day on Friday, and people know that so they're just like we're taking off and everyone. I talk to is that. Yeah, we're not going to be in. So I think it's a little whippy. Honestly, I think the bigger story when you look at the bond market as a whole was yesterday's price action. When you had equities selling off and the bonds barely budging and hanging around three point five percent. You're surprised galore on the yield. I. At first I was surprised that it didn't move at all, and none of the risk of assets that those haven assets Japanese Yan gold, nothing was moving. And so I was thinking about it quite a bit. And this is kind of what I have come up with is. You know, we joke about at least for the last few months about the bond market being ahead of equities. And then they tend to react a bit quicker. Equities take a little bit. Time to catch up. And I think that's what's happening. I think now that you're finally seeing tangible effects of a trade trade policy trade agreements, are it's noise. The headlines are noise and equities tend to go off to the races. Every time you think that's something positive coming out of them and the bond markets have become desensitized and don't react. So now equities are saying, well, wait a minute. There's nothing resolved on trade. You're seeing it show up in earnings and then on the other side of that in the credit side. And where that comes in is that as fed raises rates you're finally getting higher issuance costs. So if your company issuing debt now, you have to stop and think right away and your debt servicing costs are more. So now, that's really good. I've been wondering 'cause you've had a bunch of stories on the Bloomberg about the credit market the corporate credit market, and what it might be telling and there's been worries, but I'm I'm curious as the corporate credit market. I don't know what you guys are hearing is it playing catch up with the worries in the equity markets or vice versa because the corporate credit market can be very telling about what's going on. Vice versa. I think meaning what? Equities are catching up with credit with credit exactly because you know. I think you have now that this is where you're seeing the effects of fed policy and tightening financial conditions as you're seeing in the credit market because those costs are going up. So now if you have to now, spend more, your balance sheet, servicing your debt, and there's been a lot of debt in the last decade, right? That's gotta be weighing on your stock valuation everywhere, especially if growth is slowing down. Let's Tim Hedy because you had a busy day so much for it being thanksgiving eve, there was a slew of economic news. I have not only Karen Patrick Kane. Stairs before see tomorrow. They're done. They're gone now. We have had a busy busy morning. We durable goods come out which showed that the sluggishness and investment in the third quarter. Looks like it's carrying over into the fourth quarter. That's surprising for a couple reasons. I this late in the cycle you expect when you're running against capacity constraints. You've got labor shortages your. All those measures are pushing up manufacturing capacity that you would see more investment. You're not seeing that the second thing is you've had the argument for some supply siders at the tax cuts were going to boost investment that doesn't seem to be. It's early yet to be calling that, but that doesn't seem to be coming out in the data. So if you've got what we expect will be moderating. Consumer demand is rates increase sluggishness in the housing market investment has to be trade uncertainty investment has to be there as one of the key supportive forces for for Cotin above trend growth. And that's the today's report was not was not positive on that front. And so what other data if your the Federal Reserve because I feel like all of the chatter is starting to come up now that the stock market's doing what it's doing what are the data that that that is going to be looking at to potentially change its collective mind going into nineteen. That's a great question. I really think December is is. On the table and will not that they're going to Szemberg everything falls apart. I think looking at durable goods look into vestment looking at where inflation comes in. It is hard to argue for three to four hikes next year. If you're still barely below the target and things are picking up. And so I think watching that inflation data watch that consumer expenditure data is really going to be telling for the fed. They're they're looking right now, I think if you had to put a weight on their two mandates, they're leaning more on the labor market because you have such strong employment growth, but I heard on a phone call this morning. You can't go below zero. So at some point you have to understand the pace of job gains is going to slow it's going to have to. It's interesting that you said that about interest rates because Goldman JP Morgan are still betting on five hikes twenty nineteen. So, but you know, what a lot can happen between now. And then they have a model not to disparage anyone else. But J P Morgan has a it says there's a sixty eight percent chance of a recession happening next year. So four rate hikes is a policy mistake that features. Really? Yeah. So there's there's consistency in the argument. I don't I don't think Bloomberg shares that view the fed is very closely monitoring these developments there watching the yield curve. They're watching inflation. I think you'll see a pause and March, whereas I think maybe six months ago you were saying marches ago. I still think we get March. I think the rest of the year, and that's what the eurodollar futures are telling us. Look at the December two thousand eighteen December nineteenth spread. Yeah. That's what is showing you is that you weren't good for one. But everything else remains up in the air. But I think this is where I think Powell struggles, and he knows that they don't have much ammunition. And they've gotta get rates up because they have to have room, they know the balance she's already huge. So you don't wanna stop it yet or don't want to be forced to stop it? So he's really going to be stuck here in the feds gonna be stock. They gotta figure out where the priority is if it's just continuing to push through and the other thing that's astounding is everyone's still looking for the Powell put I don't think it's coming as quickly just we've been so conditioned to expect something between Bernardi and Yellen. They've come out and sorta at any time the markets got a little unstable pull it back. I think Powell is markets guy. I think he's got to let the markets work. And we just we have to do it because we have no choice. We're not accommodative and we have to get off zero. As everybody said we've written about it in the magazine. A tricky time for mR Powell in terms of not wanting to push everything over into recession. But he's also got to think about, you know, right. Having some more ammunition down the road. I kinda like Alex Harrison.

Federal Reserve Bloomberg mR Powell Bloomberg economics Timmy hedy Goldman JP Morgan Alex Harris Alex Interactive brokers Karen Patrick Kane reporter Japanese Yan Tim Hedy
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

04:43 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Her honeymoon. Something like that. She always be Alec terrorists to us. Great to have you back, Alex. And I tell you no rest for the well rested. No, there is not what are you seeing out there? Oh my gosh. Aside from a week. I I thought it was in the clear, you know, we had fed minutes last week. We I thought I was good. This has been a busy week ends been a busy week across the curve. I mean that no part of the fixed income market is immune from all of this. I think you're speaking more broadly in bonds are reacting and moving off of the equity market because you can see and Scott minor from Guggenheim was on Bloomberg TV earlier in the week. And he spoke to this. Where was saying look the issues that were out there a month ago? Have not changed Abeille was still a problem month ago. Everyone was still questioning what earnings were gonna be like because of all the tariffs in the trade issues that are still a problem. And I think you're starting to see surfacing some of those earnings report. It's a little bit. So those issues are there. So it's like the bond market reacted to them already the equity markets 'cause bonds are selling off an equities were still rallying like what is going on here. And now you have like it's like the equity market finally caught up selling often reacting in bonds. We're like all right. Well, we'll just go with what the equities are doing which is a flight to quality. But I want to point out something that's going on in the front end because there was a bunch of fedspeak today. Kaplan master Simon Potter who is the head of the New York Fed's markets desk. So he basically is overseeing the mechanics of the Fed's balance sheet unwind, and he spoke in Paris, and his speech, title could not have been any clear, which was US monetary policy normalization is proceeding smoothly, which is like it's funny because this week you had that fed funds rate tick up again. Yeah. And so now it's sitting just by basis points below the top of the Fed's target range. And so now everyone's coming out and saying well why? One. They're going to have to do that little tweak that they did at the June meeting and to their questioning the efficacy of the Fed's policy and saying, well, wait a minute why. Because in the minutes last week, the fed said, oh, no that rates taking up because it's treasury bell supply. And that's pushing these short term rates up and everyone's like, wait a minute. What about reserve drainage because the balance sheet is on winding. And so now everyone's calling out the fed being like, you have to acknowledge that our honeymoon and distorted all up, really. Come on in senior year sitcoms at Bloomberg economics. We do have to talk. The I read on third quarter GDP stronger than forecast stronger than forecast. But as it very often the case, the details are more important and the details show, less of an optimism. I would say because growth was concentrated concentrated in one category. Consumer spending consumption was a surprise, right? It was become what surprise which is not a bad thing by itself, but you know, concentration without diversification is not a positive thing in any case. So what that means is that growth will depend on consumer behavior. And if consumer suspending at an increasing rate. The question is whether it is related to the tax reform the tax cuts that they had in the beginning of the year by will it be sustainable going into the next year? And the the main thing in this report is that we don't see much of an acceleration. In fact, we do see decelerating in business investment. So I thought we were just getting going and seeing some capex spending, right, but business investment has decelerated steadily since the fourth quarter of last year. So it's still growing. Okay. But it's growing at a rate lower rate. So and it steadily decelerating. So that raises a question if this business optimism is enough to really offset some of the concerns coming from the tariffs. Talks. Right. If you're worried about things, you're just going to pull back, and wait and see things get a little bit calmer. Great stuff at a new of a bunch of economic news. So good to check in with you. Great to have you back. Miss harris. Alex Harris on reporter at Bloomberg news along with Yuliana let you are senior economist at Bloomberg economics. You can check out more of their writings just go to Bloomberg dot com. I'm Carol Massar along with Jason Kelly live in our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio right here, Bloomberg radio, and let's get.

Fed Bloomberg economics Alex Harris Bloomberg Bloomberg TV Bloomberg interactive brokers Simon Potter Alec US Abeille Miss harris senior economist Scott Carol Massar Paris Yuliana reporter
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:38 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek live from Bloomberg interactive brokers studio, Tommy dig into the bond market, really take a close look once again at the financial markets because we are seeing selling in both equities and bonds Alex Harris with us bomb reporter at Bloomberg news along with Elena chalet. Kiva our senior US economists at Bloomberg economics. I'm Alex let's start with you. We've had auctions were seeing selling I made this point earlier. There's a great story in the Bloomberg talking about it's unusual to see both selling in stocks and bonds, but we have it. Well, so I think it's a couple of things today, and what we're seeing Carroll one with in terms of the auctions and the bond market's off recently investors need to be compensated. Now, I think, you know, given the fed in the middle of this hiking cycle and all the supply that's coming from treasury. And I'm not just talking about bells. I'm talking about across the curve. Investors are stopping and going wait a minute. Like, I need to be compensated for some for some risk here. Because this is a lot coming. Those deficits are growing need to be compensated. And now, we're. Equities come in. Here is that because these yields are rising so aggressively. This is a problem for everyone and think about big problem for companies who have spent the last decade feasting on all this debt, either for emanate deals, or what a smart thing to do because they were servicing their debt down to lower rates were saying this is going to be good. So that when rates start to go up they'll be in a good position. Now, all of a sudden, it's like darn I kept with you guys did this. Well, you know, it's all good until the point. And you know, now if you're looking to refinance that debt, well, that's going to be incredibly expensive ends actually just talking nor credit desk. And they said this is the worst time to be an investment great ambassador. So and especially if you're companies are now, you're dealing with rising debt costs that you have to service potentially. Then also your wages are going down. So companies their bottom lines going to get hit here. So there's nothing positive. You know for equities on the back of the. Yeah. I mean, well, and that's the thing though is like what's really going to be the driver. Here is the debt overhang just gonna completely wipe out anything positive about the economy in the US volley. Go see Elena. So let's talk about the economy is there enough momentum out there that's gonna keep corporate profits growing and be able to kind of offset any of these higher. I think so I think so I we have seen a lot of momentum in business investment in the last few quarters. I think that will continue simply based on sentiment that is prevailing among businesses. So following the Trump administration tax reform, we saw a huge pickup in business sentiment, which contributed to an ongoing increase in business investment. I think that will continue for a few quarters. At least is there. A point though Yelena that win rate rates get to. Certain point that it starts to become much more problematic than what's the level. Can we look at historical moves up in terms of rates and say, okay, this is when it starts to really become a become troubles for corporate America win they anywhere near that level. We'd have to be at like in terms of what ten year or ten year? I I don't know. But that's not where we are. Right now. That's not where we are going to be in the new Trump for sure I think we have seen some slowing in the housing sector because mortgage rates went up by a full percentage point in a year, or so, but you know, that is also not anywhere near critical levels that caused some slow down in the sector, but it's nowhere like something catastrophic. I don't think so we were talking about that earlier. It's interesting that you bring it home building the SAP super composite homebuilding. Index is down twenty eight percent this year, and one of our guests Jeffrey Cleveland over paid and regal was saying that that's one of the things he's keeping an eye on for an indication that if the housing market is really significantly slowing down that could be problematic for the economy agreed not necessarily I mean partially. I think what we see right now is a temporary slowdown in the housing market. Yes. You know potential home buyers hesitant to buy maybe more hesitant. Now. When the rates went up and prices are still very high and growing six percent year-over-year. So maybe when grows in prices slows down a little bit and rates are still relatively low. We'll see some reacceleration in residential investment. But unfortunately, this year residential investment will probably subtract from GDP growth for the years the whole but not by much. We're nowhere near where we were back in early two thousands and the crisis and all of that. All right. So nothing like that come on now. So here's the thing sentiment about the tax cuts are the fiscal stimulus, whatever we're gonna call. It is legal to carry us so far, and I think even the fed presidents have like an and many of them have Robert Kaplan said this from Dallas is that eventually this fiscal stimulus has been aware off. And one of the things we talked about Joe about the tax cut tax cut. We still don't really know what the effect of the tariffs is going to be because China is still an issue and one of the things thinking about after our discussion yesterday afternoon is while we talk about the fan not having enough ammunition for the next downturn treasury might not have enough ammunition for the next downturn. They're firing all their bullets, we it's very unusual to see stimulus this late in the business cycle. And this is one things Jeff Gunnlaug has talked about this. This is very unusual. So now, the concern is will wait if they just use their fiscal stimulus, and we're in the middle of. Yeah. What's going to be left? And this is why I think what about something like infrastructure spending. Could that be the thing that comes in and helps possibly, but remember we have more debt, and we have a new two months Bill coming next week. And I don't think this is the end of new tanners and new points on the curve. I think we could potentially see treasury introduced new new coupon. Issuance I think as talking to someone Jeffries, they think twenty years very much possible. And then to balance out the weighted average maturity of the portfolio four years also possible, you said we're waiting or whether or not we're seeing impact from some of the trade talks. We did talk about fast, and all which is taking a big hit the share price today because they're saying that those New Year's tariffs on China source goods are quote directly impacting customers are some of its customers anything else. So inflation may be you mentioned tariffs. We haven't seen much of an. Impact of the latest stage of terrorists which was implemented on the twenty fourth of September. In the recent data on inflation. So PPI didn't show much signs of that many. But I think in terms of inflation going forward, we will see some deceleration going into the year end. That's what we expect in the CPI data despite of an expected rebound in the monthly September reading tomorrow you expecting it to even slow down. All right, folks. Thank you so much Alex Harris spun reporter at Bloomberg news in our Bloomberg interactive brokers to yellow with you'll initially it of our senior us economist Bloomberg economics, but moon also here with a check on world and national news headlines. Bob, thank you. The.

Bloomberg Bloomberg interactive brokers Bloomberg economics US Alex Harris fed treasury reporter China BusinessWeek Elena chalet Carroll Bob Elena Tommy Yelena
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

07:44 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I feel like we've had a lot of phase on today. Carol day Tuesday. Tuesday, payday and there she is right next to you Alex Harris bond reporter for Bloomberg bringing us all that is good in the world of bond. So what's happening out there? You got off a little easy yesterday Harris because the bond market was closed. Now people are back on the desk. What are you hearing where she's going ahead where where do you think? We'll see today was the catch up day. Can lower. I thought you were going to go, but you know, with futures being the only interest rate market open yesterday. That's where cash took its cue from. So when was opening it was more reaction to the rally? We saw on the whole that three twenty five in the ten year today was really more about the way futures traded yesterday. And they traded with an upside bias another sentiment necessarily among investors. Just have the close. Yeah. Exactly. And you know, China's now back so mean yesterday China was back but bonds were closed here. So you really weren't getting the totality of the trade. And now today with everyone back in and the holidays behind us. We're getting more of that effect of what happens when everyone's end. But I think also too. I was reading this morning and people were saying they were talking to investors who are like yes for buyers and the ten year at three twenty five. So that's the other thing too. Is that this is a level that I think is very attractive to investors to come back in. And I think depending on what we see tomorrow in the auctions because we have that thirty six billion dollar three year in the morning. And then we have that ten year option in the afternoon. It's going to be very interesting to see what what we walk away with before we bring in you'll initially of our Bloomberg economics team. I do want to ask you about a story that you unless capital McCormack have on the terminal that says Democratic's, Democrats and Republicans have plenty at stake in the upcoming midterm elections. It's already looking though like a no win situation for the US bond market, meaning what just quickly meaning that its debt. No matter who takes the house takes hammers its debt, either from the Democrats, and you get that infrastructure spending. Or if it's the Republicans, and we see some form of tax tax cut two point now were getting more daddy there. And yeah, you you add that to a deficit that's already growing because of entitlements because of the fed balance sheet unwind because of all the spending we've done in the last year or so that that's going to continue to grow. And I think that's really how the bond market's gonna trade these midterms. I do think it's an interesting point that we probably don't talk about enough from a political perspective. And from a Trump administration perspective. This is a president who is very comfortable with debt. He speaks debt more fluidly than almost anything else based on his business career. I mean, he came through real estate. Absolutely. And you know, what sort of led us to the story was we had seen something reported on axios where Gary Cohn it had a conversation with the president about infrastructure and private partnerships, and Gary Cohn tried to explain it all starts, it's like real estate that you you put an X amount of your own money. And then you leverage it by borrowing from the banks. I think the president's response was don't be stupid. They never use my own money. So that there was just telling you everything you need to know about this president and how he feels about debt as long as it's not his own money. He's happy borrowing as much as he can put this story out on Twitter because it is among the most read stories, let's bring in Yelena chalet. Davar our senior US economist Bloomberg economics here in our studio as well. Our Bloomberg interactive brokers studio limit of economic news. I am curious though. And I want you to maybe later on what were you just talking about the debt situation, and what that could potentially mean in terms of economic policy of fiscal policy of fed policy. Not anytime soon, so this is a long term story. So it's it's really like years away when we will be really really concerned. It's a huge problem. It's a huge issue that will be rowing. No matter what as Alex mentioned. But this is not something that people are concerned about right now. Especially you know, the government, but I do wonder if we start to see an economic downturn. I mean, the CBO in this story says interest owed by the government also forecast a triple in the coming decade to nearly a trillion dollars a year. That's just the interest. If we see a downturn. I mean, that's could be problematic absolutely agree with that. And could be interest could be problematic. Revenues will be slow worries in a downturn, obviously. And and it will be very hard to to navigate especially because the fed will have list less of a cushion to to combat the next downturn. Because again interest rates they were not able to raise them as much as in the previous cycle. So they will not be able to lower them as much to counterbalance the the downturn. But let's talk about some happy data though. Happy data time Hepi data. So we and if I. Index for small businesses today, and despite some retracement in the month of September, the survey showed significant improvement in compensation measures something that we've been watching. And the survey is telling us that small business owners are raising compensation. They're planning to raise compensation and just to basically try to address hiring issues. They've been trying to hire qualified workers, but they can't. And so you'll lane. I one thing that I wanted to ask you about is every invested that we're starting to hear the drumbeat of earnings is that something corporate earnings is that something that you guys ended up talking a lot about on your desk, or are you more focused on data, and that doesn't play into it as we track overall profits for the whole, so obviously we do watch that very closely. And this is basically something that you need to see four investment to continue to deliver growth. So we saw that consumer spending is has remained the driving force behind you DP growth, but also business investment has picked up lately, and that was made possible by by a pickup in in profits. Really overall economy prophet. So we are definitely watching that. All right. Let you have a senior US counters for Bloomberg. I cannot makes Alex Harris reporter for Bloomberg. Thank you, both as always so care. What are we looking at today? Just sort of get an hour. How much how much time do we have lots of traffic? What time is it in London? I know we still have about an hour left in trading. Limit up here at our I do think it's a mellow a little bit of a mellow day. Some corporate news, no doubt about it ackman taking talking about Starbucks. So that's something that's playing out in the markets. But I do feel like tick tock were looking to get into earnings. And what insight we get from those CEOs about the outlook impact on higher costs and things like that. Jason. Yeah. It does that Starbucks. I think is an interesting. I don't wanna keep looking at it. And see, you know, the company's response was pretty robust. We'll see what ackman has his sleep on this one. All right. You're listening to Bloomberg BusinessWeek. Let's get a check of world and national headlines from Bob moon in.

Bloomberg Alex Harris US president fed Starbucks Bloomberg BusinessWeek Bloomberg interactive brokers reporter Gary Cohn China government Carol ackman Twitter McCormack Yelena chalet
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:28 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"Going to let the second right there, on the. Edge on the edge of affluence give me a little? Mud A new tagline Bob every on the edge of affluence Alex could we just do a little bit, more on this amount of treasury that that's going. To hit the market who do you think, is going to buy it, that's gonna be the interesting thing you know right now people aren't so, worried about the demand because the auction's going quite well problem is. What happens when you. Do actually get the stepping back and you do get. Some steepening out and some increases in the. Yields in Europe, and you start to have a. Competitive global, interest rate market that's. The thing that scares, me and, concerns me about all this, is when, everyone is sort of returning, to? Equal footing in terms of monetary policy and you actually have this competition for global rates, I don't know who's gonna keep buying. It and I think also to we're going to actually see that, with the treasury Bill market were investors and a lot of those buyers tend to be foreign. Central banks they're gonna. Say enough we can't keep having to swallow all this debt in there's potentially a new two. Month Bill coming if not Sometime in September then definitely at the November refunding we should have more details because funding? Estimates for the end of the year are insane? As well I think what did. They say, we have Senator sixty nine billion for the second half of the year three hundred. Twenty nine billion this quarter so the remainder of this a lot of money that's a trillion yeah yeah those are numbers so that's the scary thing here I got gotta say that car Carl's doesn't look very. Concerned about me worry twenty seconds sure so in twenty seconds to Alex's point the auctions have gone well so the demand is there and if rates, move a little higher than I think even if. The is backing out of negative interest rate, policy and whatnot the Fed's, going to be further along the road every step of the way and, I think you'll see that that demand and that demand also means. That there will be. Demand for dollars because you have to pay dollars for. These security so I think we're in a. A strong Dollar regime. For the foreseeable future right we'll leave it there but I wanna thank you all very much Alex Harris are a Bloomberg news bond reporter also Carl Riccadonna, chief economist for Bloomberg economics and of course we want to welcome to me. He joining the economics team at Bloomberg economics,.

Alex Harris Carl Riccadonna Bloomberg economics Bloomberg Europe Bob Bill Fed Senator chief economist reporter twenty seconds
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

03:47 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"She comes with their own song now alex harris bloomberg news bond reporter here to help us a recap those june fomc meeting minutes alex always a pleasure thanks for being here it's my pleasure so what did you i mean i know you've got your green highlighter out which is good and i've been reading the blog that we put together for all kinds of live events anything in terms of that stands out i mean they talked about here you can see if you're looking for any big debate that might have happened at that june twelfth june thirteenth meeting you're going to have to look somewhere else because it probably wasn't one yeah it really wasn't the expectation was that these music these minutes weren't going to show us a lot that everything had been said the forecasts had been updated those were released the powell press conference after the meeting june thirteenth so that these were going to be pretty blase however think what's interesting is one and we've highlighted this on the terminal is the trade concerns is that there are now starting to see risks from the trade policy and you know it was one thing for powell legit mentioned this at central but now there was actually in the minutes that there was an actual discussion about it and now with this sort of looming deadline for chinese tariffs go into effect at midnight these are these are things that there's a broader concern out there hey alex you've you've had about eighteen minutes to digest these minutes so he he hit the stop time that she's been talking but maybe she's been multitasking going over the minutes wall she's been talking to our listeners but i can't help but feel that that this this concern listen the fed is very happy about the way the economy's going the one big thing that they pick out as a negative is trade and i can't help but think this is an owngoal that's just my opinion it's not worth anything what does the fed does the fed have any kind of does does it is there any opinion there about what the the the the executive branch could do to help this out i mean obviously the tariffs aren't great but you know they're like powell has is rated they don't make trade policy there's gonna stay in their lane on this one so they can only hope that they soften that the trump administration softens the stands but you know what they're looking at and what their concern is is that spillover is at what point when we start getting economic data that shows the effect acts of this trade policy on the broader economy because that's what if they're still data dependent that's what's going to give them concern you know the other thing that actually took up quite a few pages from what i've read the minutes so far is the guild kirk discussion is that we're finally getting that yield curve discussion that everyone in the bond market has been craving now that the two ten curve is at around i think twenty basis points today and very closely quickly heading towards that next line in the sandwiches twenty five basis points some people are actually saying the fed people are finally starting to see that okay maybe the yield curve is we've just broken these markets so much that's not telling us anything useful anymore they might not be that recession indicator because we're just so that it's not just the fad that you see everyone is just so into these markets in in so deep that it is in fact broken the ochre i just won't go back to your point about trade tariffs because one of the items that was listed in the report has to do with contacts in this is from the details contacts in some districts indicated that plans for capital spending had been scaled back or postponed as a result of uncertainty over trade policy i can't imagine that.

reporter alex harris eighteen minutes
"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

01:52 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"To be changing and for carney to respond this way suggests that they're taking note don't look i don't think brexit even happen so we're here i agree with that coming on this carl because i'm just curious could we see then the fed also maybe have to back off a little bit this goes back to exactly what we discussed yesterday at this time where the central banks moving away from unconventional monetary policy are having to do it slower than they expected we saw with the fed we've talked about the dot plot yesterday and how they always under delivered until finally last year i suspect we're going to see the same thing with uk based on the carney comments and possibly with the is well those currencies have appreciated and that is taking the wind out of their inflation sales and thereby mitigating the need for them to normalize as fast as they are what can can i throw a little cold water on this whole conversation quickly remember this is not the ecb but the bank of england and mrs no longer the financial center of europe it's gravitated a little bit to the east so whether we're talking about the london or the the big difference with bank of england they've historically always raise rates by half the rates of bed so basically we're expecting to rate hikes from vying for hikes fed that's changing already severely get one from the bank of england three from fit see you never know how it's gonna play out do we fan staff nice global conversation alex harris born reporter bloomberg news corgi donna our chief economist bloomberg economics in arusha thank you so much uk economist at bloomberg economics usually in london but in our new york studio but let's get back to the national news headlines and nathan hager nathan take it away.

carney carl uk ecb london alex harris nathan hager bank of england reporter chief economist bloomberg new york
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

01:45 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"About the bond market and some of the day's economic news alex harris's in the house reporter at bloomberg news in our new york studio along with carl riccadonna our chief economist at bloomberg economics alex let's start with you what's going on in the bond market today well i'm going to sound like a broken record here carols we're rangebound tenure still sitting in that range we were little changed last i looked before i came in here but it was really more interesting because it was the beginning of federal loser with all the fedspeak we have on the calendar today and the day really started with that interesting tweet from president trump we're joined about russia and china are playing the currency devaluation gain is the us keeps raising interest rates and what's interesting and actually neil irwin at the new york times had a very i think really good dissection of this but i think it's more of a knock against the fed and its interest rate policy right now and the wade says it's keep gradually raising interest rates more than it is about currency devaluations because the us dollars actually underperforming almost all its g ten peers i think except for the new zealand dollar fusing right usually in a rising rate environment that's usually supportive of the domestic currying safely so we should be getting a stronger dollar so how should we read into that i think it's really the debt load i think and you know and and fed dallas fed president kaplan mentioned this today he had a piece on the dallas fed website and he talks about it and said recent tax legislation and budget compromises are likely to exacerbate these debt issues and he's really the only one we've seen talk about this and this is going to get to be a problem i know powell when he was in chicago said we have to look at it over the longer term and the short run it's not so bad but these are things everybody's thinking about with growing deficits the.

dallas neil irwin china russia president new york bloomberg chicago powell kaplan alex harris wade fed new york times us trump
"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

02:13 min | 2 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"That what comes next when it comes to nafta negotiations like i said we've been talked with mike mckee um is the expectation that eventually something gets done i mean of course you've got a role on top of this the threatening of tariffs against medals which of course the president has put out there hold the the boat that tariffs has brought the allott moral for uncertain thief not necessarily directly related two negotiations with naphtha although some of the statements by us government officials yesterday and today try to link botha what happens with the those tariffs and what the what happens with those tariffs depending on what's the progress on on nafta consensus view isis still that something in the end we will be agreed upon uh i think be based basis on the fact that everyone or the consensus view is that if there is no agreement every country will lose thought just mexico but canada and the us as well and that these could have a negative implications for the economies everywhere and they're recovering the us economy so the consensus is still for some kind of agreement being reached now there's flynn now that's exactly why this year what kind of agreement and when an agreement could be reached that is a much bigger question and one up and on which people half a lot less a olympics scheduled van number eights nafta tucker will be another round that they are deciding on when and where uh the stephanie going to be another one and the two like here they're going to continue to negotiate for a long time but you have to keep in mind that the late during later this year will have fair presidential elections in july in mexico midterm elections in november in the us as so if you are unable to something to have something before the end of the first half of this year slightly at this could be pushed for until next year and then that just ats more and certainty and concerns about what could happen stay tuned everybody that's what we have to do for the jobs report according to alex harris of course important and of course from more nafta talks later on this year alex harris bomber puerto at bloomberg news lima philippa hernandez our latin america economist at bloomberg econ into new york.

president botha us flynn alex harris bloomberg econ new york mike mckee nafta mexico canada bloomberg america
"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

KBNP AM 1410

01:56 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on KBNP AM 1410

"Does indeed everybody bloomberg markets it is time for the bond report let's take a look at the treasury trade alex harris is here with us bonn reporter at bloomberg news inner bloomberg 1130 studios in new york city so alex what he's thin air today the traders really more of a shortsqueeze zuma jp morgan client survey that was released this morning actions showed an extension of shorts in the cftc data that came out on friday had showed speculators had cut their net short so i do think we have a bit of a shortsqueeze here but regardless of that move the twoyear treasury auction today might and really well two point six six percent step out verses of went issued of about two point six seven mobile jumbo also eight so there is interest in it that there was actually banned that fit to cover a three point two two which really is an indicator of demand there is the highest since september 2015 or a citizen so people are interested their buying auctions and they're getting a good bid on it yes so and and i think that's what's telling you is that there is a point in which investors will come in fields are at certain levels they will come in and they will buys so you know this idea that iran's running away from treasuries i don't necessarily think that's the case i think people are just kind of waiting for the right levels to common and to grab that debt interesting we have more auctions coming our way this week we do we have to your floating rate note tomorrow as well as the fiveyear note and then we conclude with a sevenyear auction on thursday so strong that to your no strongest demand since 2015 in september of 2015 okay let's bring in initially give her a senior us economist at bloomberg economic so uh the economic calendar is a little light today it's a little light but that is interesting now we are getting some news on the on this set front so um this week it looks like we're gonna get a final confirmation of fog drone powell as if it cheer so the senate eased voting on that.

alex harris reporter powell senate bloomberg treasury bonn new york cftc iran six six percent sevenyear fiveyear twoyear
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:02 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"That's something you can endure in europe it is a much larger share about 60 of german gdp of exports and also it's a very important sector for the japanese as well so they have to be very mindful of the currency response to any central bank signally i do and we're going to dig into this story of it later but i do like that true analysts cap cormick about beware the 500billion bond exodus as all that cash that's overseas gets repatriated back to the united states and we'll dig into that alex so rest of the week what are the things that you're going to kind of keep on your radar obviously what's going on in washington yeah honestly at this point it's really just washington you know waiting to get some sort of signal like i said earlier you know if that february if it does turn out that they're kicking the can of february 16 and i think that's a very precarious deadline because now you have all these other issues that they need to resolve at the same time they need to come up with some sort of budget and they need to resolve the debt ceiling you know probably about two weeks later if those estim that's all right but right now the bell curve is kind of a mass because nobody knows what to do you have this rising yields firs securities maturing march first march 8th and but you also have you know higher yields for the securities at the end of march cause as are in line with the congressional budget office's original forecast so there's sort of this push polls i'm hoping that will get some clarity and investors can kind of have a better sense of what they wanted to hear the short of a carol is that tax reform is basically a tax cut tax cut means less revenue in less revenue means that day of reckoning shifts for closer rather than further go away unless the economy's growing like eight or 10 which is laughter over there down our chief economist with bloomberg economic for dismal laughter and of course alex harris are bond reporter up liberties both of them in our new york studio you're listening to bloomberg radio hey or has a look of.

europe central bank united states chief economist alex harris reporter washington bloomberg new york two weeks
"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

Bloomberg Radio New York

02:11 min | 3 years ago

"alex harris" Discussed on Bloomberg Radio New York

"I think for investors it's just kind of being aware um you know the government does not default on its debt ios so i mean even if you do see investors moving out of potentially vulnerable securities you'll that does present buying opportunities for others so you might see people or even strategists on the streets and yet if you're feeling confident comeback in and by use that as a buying opportunity but you know i think again it's on it's on investors radars something to be aware about but again in terms of reacting to it i think they have some time in the interesting thing now is treasury cutting its fourweek bill auction odd to be sold on january sixteen next week odds near forty five billion from the previous auction that we saw this past tuesday and that was 50 billion some of that is to make room for you know the coupon auctions that are settling on our on tuesday rather but would not be interesting to see is okay will discharge recontinue to cut that fourweek they'll supply which may be tell us okay they think it sooner rather than later m booster wrap up here in our lives minute i like you right in the story here in a very polite way you say we have their eight key way stations for her treasury investors in this and this is a whole journey air uh which basically as code for saying a brace yourself could be a bumpy ride yeah now absolutely and i i think to you know for me i'm looking at those financing estimates that we should get at three p an eastern time on january 29th because the last time we saw the financing estimates treasury those were october 30th treasury it said oh our first quarter borrowing is going to be in our five hundred and twelve billion and assuming a cash balance of three hundred billion by the end of the mark an end of march which had said to me okay they think this is going to be resolved by then if those estimates are still out elevated so telling me they think it's going to be resolved by the end of march but if they bring those in it's time aok this is going to run down to the wire all right alex harris thank you for your time alex covers ethics government bonds for bloomberg news you're listening to bloomberg politics policy and power on bloomberg radio.

treasury alex harris bloomberg fourweek